Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Crossroads]

We've been hearing this "They're ruining their best formations" chatter out of Western analysts for a while, but this is the first time I'm hearing it from a pro-Russian commentator who seems to have some real bona fides.  It's a little unclear to me if he's a former or current Russian general.

https://www.newsweek.com/russias-forces-making-no-progress-key-offensive-former-commander-1790354

At first I was thinking that Russia's apparent lack of control of the Russian information sphere was a bug in Putin's program and even a sign of weakness.  But, as I study it more closely, I'm coming to believe that it's a feature. 

Russian commentators are allowed to be critical of individual generals and military decisions, but I'm not aware that any internal Russian commentators are allowed to be critical of the war's purpose or of Putin himself.  That consistency suggests that the Russians do have control of the information space, as they've not been afraid to lie blatantly on certain other topics (e.g., Ukrainian atrocities). 

It also speaks to Putin's calculations that he can't risk any particular military figure or group becoming powerful enough to challenge him.  Even if that limits his military's effectiveness in the short term.

Putin's clearly settled in for the long game now, hoping that NATO will tire of supporting Ukraine and/or the Ukrainian people will grow tired of being bombed. 

Igor Girkin, responsible for downing the Dutch passenger plane in 2014, not really a former commander, certainly a key figure of the only opposition allowed to persist. War opposition, that is, demanding even harsher measures to win the war. Even they have their rules as you observed: attack individual commanders for making a mess of the war, no words against Putin and his band of siloviks.

Putin's now made a statement to place nuclear forces in Belarus, Lukasenko has been quiet, but he's in a dire spot anyway. Belarus too is sort of a semi-democracy still, where the semi comes from the autocratic and violent leaders, while there is a constant risk people will hit the streets, similar to Maidan 2014. Maidan, let us remember, was a protest first and foremost against corruption, and in that case against the Russian sponsored corruption in particular. The EU deal that the Russian protege president vetoed was after all mostly a trade deal, certainly a step towards EU and liberal democracy. Putin's first enemy is liberal democracy, hence his reaction.

There's been preciously little nuclear warmongering from Putin since both China and India, among others, in public statements stated nuclear blackmail should not be done. Putin's playing a weakening hand, and while he always bluffs, it is becoming more and more evident to everyone.

Seems from what I've read the key reason for placing nuclear forces to Belarus is to tighten the hold of the country. Annexing Belarus - White Russians - and Ukraine - Little Russians - to Mother Russia was after all his key immediate priority when launching his brutal invasion. We saw the editorials which congratulated him from achieving this great unification of Russian empire. edit: the fact Putin made the statement on nukes on Belarus' day of independence carries symbolism as well. Their independence reduced a step or three further, again.

I now had the time to watch the video in the previous page, long war seems to be Putin's strategy now. And while the video makes excellent points as how he can achieve this in hiring minorities from poorest areas almost ad finite, there's the economical front as well where Putin's doing not that great either. Much was made from Xi's visit to Moscow, but what Putin asked in i) support for building a new gas pipe to China, ii) loans, and iii) arms support, he got none.

[JasonPratt]

Remembering how Putin got into his teenage years hearing (insular) stories of the greatness of the rise of the Soviet Union from his grandfather (personal cook to Lenin and Stalin for ~25 years), no doubt one of those stories would have been about the communist marvel of Stalin's pipe-organ, the Katyusha rocket trucks! -- made from Studebakers (among other things) and ammunition intended originally for Stalin's special "Ivanov" project, the close support rocket bombers so simple any Ivan could fly one.

Stalin never got his 100 to 150K Ivanovs made that he commissioned, although to be fair he did get the (much more complex) IL-2 made instead, in something like similar numbers. Most of them were destroyed by the Nazis of course, but they doubtless helped win the East Front and thus WW2 altogether. 

But all the rockets intended for the Ivanov project had already been made when Barbarossa started (since of course they could be used with other things if necessary), so on June 22nd 1941 Stalin no longer had any need for a massive swarm of blue-sky close-support bombers that couldn't dogfight and weren't armored and had no rear gunner.

But he did suddenly have a need for local rocket support on defense, so ta-daaa the Communist production miracle of the Pipe Organs, soon to be famous around the world!

.....I have a reason for mentioning this, of course:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/122dk3g/russian_is_moving_ww2_equipment_towards_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

AW YEAH PUTIN ISN'T FOOLING AROUND ANYMORE!    One pipe organ on the way to the front! (Actually near the Ukrainian border already?)

Plus a couple of WW2 anti-tank pieces (76mm?) for perimeter defense I guess? There are other American Studs and a Zil-A (i.e. a Ford 1932 Model A) plus a Zis-5 in the convoy, too.

The pipe organ, oddly, is rolling with rockets on the rails, already ready to go already! They seem like relatively more modern rockets.

[JasonPratt]

Fortunately for Putin, he has much better ways to throw high-explosive at the enemy. Like his T-90s!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/122ms05/yet_another_russian_t90_tank_destroyed_by/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

...oh. Um... 6-2/3% less of his remaining T90s than he used to have.

The good news for Putin is that the Ukrainians didn't capture it. But if you look closely, a little down and to the left, you can see a Uk tractor ready to tow just in case!

[FarAway Sooner]

Very interesting article on one fundamental aspect of this war that will likely never show up in a wargame but is every bit as critical to the Ukrainian conduct of the war as any fancy weapons systems:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/26/politics/us-army-ukraine-medical-training/index.html

[JasonPratt]

I've heard reports that Russian medical recovery is not even as good as their command, communications, and logistics. 

[Sir Slash]

You gotta hand it to the Russkies, they build tanks that keep on firing even after they're on fire.  Advanced Medical Training and Assistance is one area the West could help the Ukrainians far out perform the Orcs in every category of saving lives and the resultant increase in troop morale would be worth every effort.

[Skoop]

I think there has been training of Ukrainians for casualty evac and medical care.  Large number of western volunteers help with casualty evac.

Still more can be done for the Ukrainians in this department though.

It's definitely better than the Russian side.  I've seen some numbers say that large numbers of Russian wounded that should have been survivable, were Kia due to terrible evac and medical care.

[FarAway Sooner]

I assume that the article I linked above was correct when it stated that certain severe casualties in the Ukrainian army are being treated in hospitals in NATO countries.

[GDS_Starfury]

yes they are.

[GDS_Starfury]

he russians are going to be even more fucked.

[GDS_Starfury]

fluff

https://twitter.com/i/status/1640375132064497667

[Crossroads]

I think there has been training of Ukrainians for casualty evac and medical care.  Large number of western volunteers help with casualty evac.

Still more can be done for the Ukrainians in this department though.

It's definitely better than the Russian side.  I've seen some numbers say that large numbers of Russian wounded that should have been survivable, were Kia due to terrible evac and medical care.

Some shocking analysis out there on Russians medevac and treatment for sure. In that it does not seem to exist for most part. This from yesterday for instance:

I've gone deeply into the subject of battle casualties, non-battle casualties and KIA to WIA casualty ratios in previous threads like this. So I'm going to do cliff notes to cut to the strategic point.

At a 2 dead to 3 wounded casualty ratio, Russia has suffered 255,825 wounded in action on top of 170,550 dead.

That is a total KIA plus WIA total of 426,375 Russian battle casualties.

This doesn't include non-battle casualties, for which see the link below.

2-to-3 ratio, if we're to trust his analysis 

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1640159311853678592


Quite (!) a read. Have a look, the whole thread by him:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1640159311853678592.html

[Crossroads]

2-to-3 ratio, if we're to trust his analysis 

Indeed, he's taken some flak for his analysis. Here's his rebuttal. While the amount of drones is not known, I am assuming they are available in great numbers, and an open steppe in winter with no leaves on any of the trees or vegetation out there, it is not a happy place to be under constant surveillance.

That said, this does not touch his dead-to-wounded ratio analysis at all.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1640403149662961679.html

[JasonPratt]

My belief that support kitties are genius, continues unabated. 

[Sir Slash]

Indeed. My cat has volunteered me to fight in Ukraine 3 times since Christmas. They are clearly supportive of the Fight for Freedom abroad and Tyranny in their own homes.