Housing Market Turnaround?

[LongBlade]

This is the first report I've seen that indicates that - at least in some areas - the housing market may be turning around.

Between the pent up demand and low inventory, this year is shaping up to favor sellers in the housing market—something not seen in about six years.

Data from real estate website Zillow shows housing inventor y in the U.S. is down close to 18% from last year, which means competition for homes on the market is severe. Stories of bidding wars and all-cash offers are plentiful in some markets, and are forcing buyers to play offense.

"It varies by market, but in certain areas, like in the Bay Area or Orange County [in California], there is fierce competition for homes," says Jani Strand, a spokeswoman for real estate company Redfin. "The majority of homes in areas like this are receiving multiple offers—and not just a handful—dozens in many cases."

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2013/02/20/how-to-play-housing-market/

[Longdan]

It is good to be hopeful of a turnaround but there is remarkably little information in that article.

[LongBlade]

Inventory decreasing by 18% is fairly significant.

What's missing is the information that no one is paying attention to: the stock market and housing expansion is being fueled by phantom dollars in the form of printing money.

That gravy train will not end well.

But don't expect many news stories from any source to be chanting much doom and gloom - what we need is a return to consumer confidence fueled by real economic growth. We won't get it with endless increases in government debt, regulation, and lack of leadership, but it's nice to see a good story once in a while. Even if it's an incomplete picture.

It is also posted not to crow about good news, but rather because some folks are buying homes right now and they need to understand why it might be more difficult in some markets than others. For that purpose this article is more than sufficient.

[Longdan]

There is nothing wrong with good news and there is nothing wrong about posting it.
My complaint was the emptiness of useable fact.  Inventory decrease of 18% means...what?
Where was inventory before and in what geographic areas? If half the houses in Saskatchewan
were empty and a hundred of them burned down and of the remainder 60 percent were sold
what could that mean?  (Well absolutely nothing which is why I made it up.) It could mean a land
and housing boom of epic proportions or that a couple of shacks had changed hands.
Consumer confidence is critical since all the fake money has to be ponzied around so nobody
can ever track it all.

[LongBlade]

You've got a choice: no news or imperfect news.

[Longdan]

Something tells me if there was more better news somebody would be flogging it.

[LongBlade]

Something tells me if there was more better news somebody would be flogging it.

Doesn't it strike you as odd that Fox is touting good economic news?

[Longdan]

Well a collection of unfounded allegations and unspecific figures is good news I guess.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Fox reports what it is told to report to make the herd run in a particular direction.

[GDS_Starfury]

what fox isnt reporting are the low prices that bank owned homes are going for and the people/businesses that are buying up the cheap housing to use as rentals.

[airboy]

I monitor this very closely and have spoken about this with both academic faculty and people in the industry.

A lot of the "housing inventory" is now uninhabitable.  If you leave a house vacant for years the natural deterioration of the home operating systems is considerable.  If you add in vandals, criminals, etc.... it gets even worse.

Lending standards are pretty rational.  Getting a loan with less than 5% down is next to impossible with 20% down more of the norm.  Total household debt has shrunk pretty sharply.

What is important here is that the turn-around took so damn long - especially compared to the S&L crisis in the 1980s.  The Obama Administration did their best to prevent foreclosures and the market from clearing.  This worked so well a lot of housing stock is simply destroyed.

I disagree with Starfury about the sale of distressed properties.  Far fewer homes are going into foreclosure and the days of major conversion of owner occupied homes turning into rentals is over.  Each state is a little different, so he may be in an area where there are a lot of short sales.  But housing price appreciation nationally has been very high - which empirically is a big argument against a lot of short sales.

[GDS_Starfury]

Im talking specificly about the southern florida market.  I have no experience in the field anywhere else.  your certainly right about the condition houses can get into.  whats funny was that in the beginning I was getting a fair amount of work from banks to clean up the homes so they could be sold.  the second the banks heard anything about a bail out that work vanished into thin air.

[LongBlade]

the second the banks heard anything about a bail out that work vanished into thin air.

Obamanomics for another win... :/

[GDS_Starfury]

at the time is Sarasota that ended up being the death stroke for my house  >:(

[MetalDog]

at the time is Sarasota that ended up being the death stroke for my house  >:(

Blame it on the snowbirds.  Works every time.