Leaked Memo - War with China by 2025

Started by Jarhead0331, January 31, 2023, 02:55:16 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

MengJiao

Quote from: Windigo on February 02, 2023, 08:51:12 PMI tend to agree with you Gus.

The saying that nation's fight in a new war based on their last war's lessons. What the hell did China learn from their last one?

   Maybe they learned not to attack Vietnam.  Pushing out a lot of ships and planes makes for a much better form of not-too-bloody regional swaggering than actually attacking anybody.

Gusington

I'm leaning towards the sentiment that a lot of the indigenous Chinese equipment is crap even if they stole our tech...just a gut feeling since almost 100% of said Chinese military equipment is untested.

I also say that as a consumer who, when buying anything from books to tools to games to appliances, is more often than not disappointed in Chinese quality.

Who knows if their military production is any different?


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

Tripoli

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 02, 2023, 11:09:46 PM...

Interested in what everyone thinks the effectiveness of those Diesel-Electric subs the Swedes used to sneak-up on the U.S. Navy Carrier Battlegroup a year or so back would be in this conflict by Taiwan? At the very least it might give Comrade Ping a few additional items to ponder before pulling the trigger.  :lifesaver:

There is a lot of background noise in the Taiwan straits, which will make submarines more effective. (Source: The Chinese Invasion Threat, pg. 177).  The shallow depths in the straits makes it a challenging, (but not insurmountably so) environment for large submarines.    Other hydrographic features, such as deep water SW of Tainan and off the east coast of Taiwan makes this area suitable for SSNs.  IMHO, SS/SSKs will excel in the narrow, confined and noisy straits. Against an invasion force, in these confined waters their slow speed will not be a significant disadvantage, and the noisy environment will make them a very significant threat.  However, to fully exploit this environment, we will have to do regular training and planning with the Japanese and Taiwanese navy for this scenario.
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

MengJiao

Quote from: Tripoli on February 03, 2023, 09:53:08 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 02, 2023, 11:09:46 PM...

Interested in what everyone thinks the effectiveness of those Diesel-Electric subs the Swedes used to sneak-up on the U.S. Navy Carrier Battlegroup a year or so back would be in this conflict by Taiwan? At the very least it might give Comrade Ping a few additional items to ponder before pulling the trigger.  :lifesaver:

There is a lot of background noise in the Taiwan straits, which will make submarines more effective. (Source: The Chinese Invasion Threat, pg. 177).  The shallow depths in the straits makes it a challenging, (but not insurmountably so) environment for large submarines.    Other hydrographic features, such as deep water SW of Tainan and off the east coast of Taiwan makes this area suitable for SSNs.  IMHO, SS/SSKs will excel in the narrow, confined and noisy straits. Against an invasion force, in these confined waters their slow speed will not be a significant disadvantage, and the noisy environment will make them a very significant threat.  However, to fully exploit this environment, we will have to do regular training and planning with the Japanese and Taiwanese navy for this scenario.

The recent wargame

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ

Found that the biggest limitation on the effectiveness of US Subs was that they had to go out of the battle area to get more torpedoes a lot since they tended to use a lot of torpedoes.

MengJiao

Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2023, 09:48:41 AMI'm leaning towards the sentiment that a lot of the indigenous Chinese equipment is crap even if they stole our tech...just a gut feeling since almost 100% of said Chinese military equipment is untested.

I also say that as a consumer who, when buying anything from books to tools to games to appliances, is more often than not disappointed in Chinese quality.

Who knows if their military production is any different?

  A lot of "Chinese" military gear (at least with radars, sonar and electronic warfare gear) is what the Chinese buy from European suppliers.  I think it is probably reasonably effective but not in general as effective as US equipment plus I would assume we (the US) can buy the same gear and practice against it.

Tripoli

Quote from: MengJiao on February 03, 2023, 10:17:39 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on February 03, 2023, 09:53:08 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 02, 2023, 11:09:46 PM...

Interested in what everyone thinks the effectiveness of those Diesel-Electric subs the Swedes used to sneak-up on the U.S. Navy Carrier Battlegroup a year or so back would be in this conflict by Taiwan? At the very least it might give Comrade Ping a few additional items to ponder before pulling the trigger.  :lifesaver:

There is a lot of background noise in the Taiwan straits, which will make submarines more effective. (Source: The Chinese Invasion Threat, pg. 177).  The shallow depths in the straits makes it a challenging, (but not insurmountably so) environment for large submarines.    Other hydrographic features, such as deep water SW of Tainan and off the east coast of Taiwan makes this area suitable for SSNs.  IMHO, SS/SSKs will excel in the narrow, confined and noisy straits. Against an invasion force, in these confined waters their slow speed will not be a significant disadvantage, and the noisy environment will make them a very significant threat.  However, to fully exploit this environment, we will have to do regular training and planning with the Japanese and Taiwanese navy for this scenario.

The recent wargame

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ

Found that the biggest limitation on the effectiveness of US Subs was that they had to go out of the battle area to get more torpedoes a lot since they tended to use a lot of torpedoes.

Yes.  There is a reason the USN is expanding the submarine facilities in Guam.....
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

Sir Slash

So Trip, it sounds like there's a lot of danger of friendly fire in those noisy straits? Or would that not be a problem?
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

Tripoli

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 03, 2023, 11:48:05 AMSo Trip, it sounds like there's a lot of danger of friendly fire in those noisy straits? Or would that not be a problem?
That would absolutely be a potential problem.  Planning and work closely with the Taiwanese and Japanese navies before the war is critical for avoiding "Green on Blue." 
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

MengJiao

Quote from: Tripoli on February 03, 2023, 12:05:41 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 03, 2023, 11:48:05 AMSo Trip, it sounds like there's a lot of danger of friendly fire in those noisy straits? Or would that not be a problem?
That would absolutely be a potential problem.  Planning and work closely with the Taiwanese and Japanese navies before the war is critical for avoiding "Green on Blue." 

 Of course, for the Beijingians, it would be red on red, though I guess they could plan a lot and practice a lot to avoid that.

JasonPratt

If they're buying gear, rather than building from stolen/retro'd plans, then the gear may be technically effective, but then comes the many questions of deployment and operation of the platforms, starting with personal training at the tip of the spear up through combined arms integration at all levels (from company to army); CCC; tactics, ops, strategy.... Do they even have repair and supply parts, and how much?

Even implementation of design can be fatal, as the stealth fighters on their non-nuclear carrier demonstrate: limited supplies on the carriers due to fuel (and related) requirements, and a choice between flying the fighter or putting weapons on its hardpoints.

At the very least, I fully invite them to march their million-man-armies to Taiwan and see what happens.  :ninjameditate: (Army size is meaningless except as a homefront drain, when invading an island: the transport platforms are the necessary constraint.)
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

MengJiao

#40
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 03, 2023, 12:47:29 PMIf they're buying gear, rather than building from stolen/retro'd plans, then the gear may be technically effective, but then comes the many questions of deployment and operation of the platforms, starting with personal training at the tip of the spear up through combined arms integration at all levels (from company to army); CCC; tactics, ops, strategy.... Do they even have repair and supply parts, and how much?

Even implementation of design can be fatal, as the stealth fighters on their non-nuclear carrier demonstrate: limited supplies on the carriers due to fuel (and related) requirements, and a choice between flying the fighter or putting weapons on its hardpoints.

At the very least, I fully invite them to march their million-man-armies to Taiwan and see what happens.  :ninjameditate: (Army size is meaningless except as a homefront drain, when invading an island: the transport platforms are the necessary constraint.)

In all the cases I could find, the radar systems purchased in the 1980s and 1990s have been re-engineered and improved by the Chinese, so I would imagine after 30-40 years their own radars are reasonably functional. These days China seems to export more radars and such than it imports.

Gusington



слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

FarAway Sooner

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 02, 2023, 11:09:46 PMSorry about your wife's foot Sooner. Hoping she's better soon. Would that be her, 'ass-kicking' foot? If so, better stay on her other side if there's a large cast involved... from personal experience.

Thanks, Slash.  She's in a lot less pain than she was when she first broke it (on New Year's Day, no less!), and is pretty much comfortable so long as her foot is up.  The foot is healing but the bone hasn't started to mend, so we'll be at least another 4 weeks with no weight bearing so the broken pieces of the bone don't slide apart. 

That means FarAway_Dad does pretty much everything that involves an adult having two feet on the ground for another month!

Sir Slash

I don't know Jason. A million men holding hands could make one hell of a bridge.  :laugh: The Fire Ants in my backyard can do it, so I'd say...comparable.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

FarAway Sooner

If the Chinese have figured out how to eliminate corruption from state-funded industries, they'll be the first government in human history to have done so.  I do tend to feel like we'll have a higher readiness level, so long as we can keep our eye on the ball.

The presence of the Taiwan Strait is a big challenge for China invading Taiwan.  Even bigger than the presence of the Pacific Ocean is for preventing American defeat of China invading Taiwan.  But it'd be a near run thing.

It's really hard to evaluate anybody's military until it's in a shooting war.  Alarmists on both sides will always cry wolf, cheapskates will always deride the other side, and nobody for sure knows until the bullets start flying.

By that time, a military has already failed in one of its first two main objectives (preventing foreign aggression through deterrence).