Is the US set for a violent upheaval in 2020? This scientist thinks so.

[Steelgrave]

Interesting article on Yahoo. I agree with the researchers who say there is not enough evidence to support this, but still....worth consideration.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-really-experience-violent-upheaval-2020-162332158.html

[Gusington]

^Interesting graph...I've never seen history represented like that. But do Columbine and Aurora belong on there?

[Steelgrave]

I think that you could argue that Columbine and Aurora are significant because (1) they may have been a reflection of our more violent times in general (especially when you add media into the mix) and (2) they seem to spawn copycat crimes, or at least attempts. Now that's just off of the top of my shaved head, I have no insight into the researcher. But I think the cliodynamics theory is an interesting look at history and predictive cycles. I believe that most of us who play wargames, being historians in general, could entertain the idea of a cycle of violence since we've seen it among nations. Worth a thought.

[Gusington]

Hmm...then why not include the Virginia Tech massacre? Personally I think Columbine and Aurora are anomalies and not indicative of anything more than their perpetrators insanity.

[Steelgrave]

Good points, Gus. Makes me want to dig further into the subject at least. I think he definitely is on track about the political tensions and increased levels of  uncivil behavior/polarization of the political process. Before the Republicans took the house under Newt years ago, there was a lot of tension, growth of militias, etc....and there were some sociologists who believed violence was coming. When the Republicans won, that seemed to let a lot of air out of the anger felt by much of the grassroots, who felt that maybe the game wasn't as rigged as they believed. Nowdays it seems that both sides are mad and that the bridge between the two is even further apart. I hope he's wrong, but the economy continuing to emulate the Titanic can't possibly be helping things either.

[Gusington]

^The destroyed economy can both fuel and dampen the chances of increased violence...people who would ordinarily go out and prepare to duke it out may be too busy looking or worrying about work...unless they are part of the Occupy movement :/

Big Brother is a reality now too...the gov't has more muscle to flex now to prevent political violence than ever before.

Also, to be frank, when Obama won I thought there would be an outburst of racial violence by groups like the KKK etc but there hasn't been...makes me wonder why. Is it really because we are a more accepting society as a whole, or just better policed?

[Steelgrave]

^That's an easy one. It didn't happen because we are nowhere as racist as the media would have us believe. Don't even get me started on the race-baiters who make a living off of the issue. I'm a 52 year old white Southern male who once lived in Mississippi for 5 years and has spent most of my life in Texas and Oklahoma. Racism is unacceptable among my peers, but you would never know it if you listen to the hacks who spew hatred and misinformation about the Tea Party or men in my age/race range in general.

Of course, the galling thing is that my opposition to Obama is painted as "racist" by the same media who don't consider 96% of blacks voting for Obama to be racially motivated. It's not an argument that can be won. And now you made me derail my own thread  8)

[Gusington]

You're welcome ;)

What about the whole heavy policing of the US and it's effect on any political violence?

[MetalDog]

Honestly, I think we are all S.O.L.  There will be a food crisis to go with the economic crisis.  It will spiral downward in lockstep with political upheaval.  No.  I am not Chicken Little.  But it's a REALLY bad feeling that I get.

[Gusington]

^By 2020? Sooner? Later?

There already is a food crisis, a climate crisis and an economic crisis.

The whole idea of globalization was billed as a good thing, but I don't think it is at all.

[Steelgrave]

Personally, I think that such police heavy handedness, coupled with domestic drones, stories about ICE agents being disciplined for arresting illegals, and the continuous threat of the left to get around the Second Amendment, coupled with the right's normal paranoia about the left in general (yes, which I share, thank you) is making for a witches brew here. Honestly, I am more skeptical of the police now than at any point in my life. Some of that has to do with having run into corrupt cops in my life, but most of it is more related to the incidents we see via the media all the time of badge heavy cops having run ins with citizens.

I'm not in any way talking about criminals, I mean citizens. And the push to outlaw/seize cameras from private citizens who are taping cops is sickening. I still respect and appreciate the men and women who help keep us safe, but I would respect them more if they had less of an "us vs them" attitude and policed their own ranks better. I personally know a retired Chicago cop who brags about how often they planted drugs on people. When folks like me start to distrust their own police, Houston, we gotta problem......

[Steelgrave]

Honestly, I think we are all S.O.L.  There will be a food crisis to go with the economic crisis.  It will spiral downward in lockstep with political upheaval.  No.  I am not Chicken Little.  But it's a REALLY bad feeling that I get.

LB pointed out how we are importing CORN for the first time ever!!! I'm not Chicken Little either, but I worry that we are moving towards a flash point in our society here, a perfect storm of shortages, political unrest, and economic misery...

[Gusington]

^That will lead to...what?

[MetalDog]

^By 2020? Sooner? Later?

There already is a food crisis, a climate crisis and an economic crisis.

The whole idea of globalization was billed as a good thing, but I don't think it is at all.

Sooner.  To be honest, I'm terrified that the deal is going to go down.  Maybe it's Maya calendar paranoia, but, I see the corn crops fail around here.  The drought.  The joblessness around the country.  The undercurrent of, "When is the economy going to get better."  And man's natural penchant for violence and it just makes me fear.

[TheCommandTent]

^That will lead to...what?

Road Warrior!!


Sorry I am currently watching my way through the Mad Max movies.  I'll leave now so you can get back to a serious conversation.