Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Uberhaus]

Three American PhDs, two, possibly all three with military careers, comment on what is needed in adapting Western assistance to Ukraine, describing the war as a cyberpunk war. From RUSI:  https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/weathering-storm-western-security-assistance-defensive-ukraine 

The infrastructure and institutions that are susceptible to continued kinetic and non-kinetic Russian attacks need to be identified and made more resilient to attacks to ensure that people and processes can weather continued Russian bombings, cyber attacks and information warfare. Without such resilience, Ukrainian citizens and leaders may lose the will to resist, and Western backers may reconsider economic and military assistance.
The outdated Western way of training the Ukrainians in combined arms manoeuvre and the provision of stale Cold War-era weapons systems need to be modified considerably. The 51-member coalition supporting Ukraine should want more bang for its buck – as do the Ukrainians. This means Western trainers and advisors should constantly update and modernise programmes of instruction for the battlefield that Ukrainian soldiers face. The West should provide more professional military education to Ukrainian officers and senior enlisted personnel to help them out-think and out-fight the Russians. Current Western efforts to educate Ukrainian forces are too little, too late.
Ukraine's forces need to invest in a resilient defensive posture, and would benefit from Western help to do so. This means barricades, trenches, minefields and counter-drone capabilities to resist Russian assaults while Ukraine regenerates a more capable and rested military.
Ukraine should continue espionage operations that punish Russian critical infrastructure such as the Trans-Siberian Railway and energy infrastructure to undermine Russian military-industrial production. Indirect Western support for these operations will involve challenges in escalation management, but they should offer opportunities to disturb the equilibrium of Russia's frontal approach in a manner that minimises Ukrainian casualties.

[Gusington]

^Good post. There's probably no way of knowing how much 'advanced assistance' the West is giving Ukraine for fear of provoking more and more intense Russian responses.

[Uberhaus]

Thanks, the video you posted was great, very interesting though painful to watch. 

^Good post. There's probably no way of knowing how much 'advanced assistance' the West is giving Ukraine for fear of provoking more and more intense Russian responses.

Poland's present FM (but not at the time) posted pictures of SAS in Ukraine performing AT weaponry training in the early stages of the war.  While the present German Chancellor has gotten himself into hot water with his allies:  https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/german-chancellor-appeared-to-suggest-that-british-and-french-soldiers-have-helped-ukraine-fire-deep-strike-missiles-at-russian-targets-report-says/ar-BB1j7JSq

The Russians threatened to shoot down a French AWACS in international airspace.  https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240222-france-says-russia-threatened-to-down-spy-plane-in-particularly-aggressive-black-sea-exchange 

Flying high above the Black Sea coast, the French AWACS use their powerful radar and other surveillance gear to peer across to the Crimean Peninsula that was seized from Ukraine by Russia and annexed in 2014. The flights can spot missile launches, airborne bombing runs and other military activity in the Ukraine war.

Other military activity such as ships.

[Gusington]

^I'm sure there is a ton of secret squirrel operations ongoing in Ukraine that will never ever be acknowledged by any of the 50+ coalition governments 

And yes Warographics content is some of the best on the interwebs...and they are prolific, posting numerous videos on multiple channels every week.

Can you imagine if the Russians did shoot down the French AWACS?

[Windigo]

I think Russia knows that would be a big no-no. Ukrainians with unlimited big boy toys would be a very bad thing for them.

[Windigo]

I think we should give them a submarine or two.

[Gusington]

I think we already have.

[GDS_Starfury]

Can you imagine if the Russians did shoot down the French AWACS?

that would definitely be an Article 5 trigger.

[Uberhaus]

A Russian SU-27 fired on a UK Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft in September 2022.  It missed, it wasn't a misfire as originally claimed.  https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66798508 

As the two Russian SU-27s approached the RAF spy plane, they received a communication from their ground station controller.
One Western source told the BBC the words they received were to the effect of "you have the target".
This ambiguous language was interpreted by one of the Russian pilots as permission to fire.
The loose language appears to have shown a high degree of unprofessionalism by those involved, sources said. In contrast, Nato pilots use very precise language when asking for and receiving permission to fire.
The Russian pilot released an air-to-air missile, which successfully launched but failed to lock on to its target, the BBC has been told. It was a miss, not a malfunction.
Defence sources have told the BBC that a row then broke out between the two Russian pilots.
The pilot of the second SU-27 did not think they had been given permission to fire.
He is said to have sworn at his comrade, effectively asking him what he thought he was doing.
Yet the first pilot still released another missile.
We had been told that the second missile simply fell from the wing - suggesting the weapon either malfunctioned or that the launch was aborted.

I guess I'm not the only person who would benefit from using more precise language.

[al_infierno]

Nevalny was laid to rest today.... with the Terminator 2 theme playing as he was lowered into the ground.   

(You can hear it at 0:53)

[Gusington]

^He'll be...back?

[FarAway Sooner]

If the West could just give NATO as many dumb artillery shells as they'd like, and stop sitting on our asses in terms of continuing other types of assistance that we WERE giving them six months ago, I think that Ukraine could be weathering this much more effectively.

I do wonder how Ukrainian cyberwarfare is going against the Russians.  I would think that is an area where the Ukrainians would have a lot of folks with strong aptitude, even if they didn't start the war with the cadre of professional hackers that Russia did.  I would also think that would be an area where the West could provide some help--and they'd benefit from getting to deploy some of their cyberweapons versus the Russians.

Maybe they're already doing that and neither side's media is picking it up?

[GDS_Starfury]

oh we're definitely helping them on the cyber front.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1763636278682165724

[JudgeDredd]

Can you imagine if the Russians did shoot down the French AWACS?

that would definitely be an Article 5 trigger.

I think you're right - it would be a trigger. But I also think it's bollox to think it would be an actual trigger.

The west has already shown it's hand to Putin. If Russia were to take out a NATO asset, that wasn't US, it would be explained away. Hell, perhaps even if it was a US asset. Excuses would be made to prevent escalation. Everything would be poured into dialing down the rhetoric.

The problem is - you have one side that has the actual will (or at least propagates the belief they have the will) to use nuclear weapons, and the other side not only isn't, but will do everything it can to prevent that.

I'm not saying that's a bad thing - preventing nuclear war - but there's an unhealthy balance in that and Putin knows it.

He'll carry on threatening and everytime he does, the west will continue to show it's lack of resolve.

It's really quite sad. We're watching the very slow bleeding to death of a nation.

I'll just say this - I know there were no nukes involved, but we all learnt about bullies at school and we knew what we had to do. The sooner the west realises that - the sooner Ukraine can get those cockroaches off their land.