Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Pete Dero]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-orders-nuclear-military-train-to-ukraine-front-line-tswzv2v50
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-sends-nuclear-military-28146922
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/04/russia-sends-signal-to-west-with-nuclear-maneuvers-a78963

Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send 'signal to the West'

President Putin is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders, Nato is believed to have warned its members.

The Kremlin has been signalling its readiness for a significant escalation as Russia loses ground on the battlefield. Fears over Putin's earlier hints that he might resort to such tactics heightened yesterday with claims that a train operated by the secretive nuclear division was destined for Ukraine.

Poland-based defense analyst Konrad Muzyka said the convoy belongs to a Russian Defense Ministry directorate responsible for "nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport and issuance to units."
Muzyka stressed that the Rybar Telegram channel's video, which it said showed mine-resistant, ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles fitted with turrets, does not appear to show preparations for a "nuclear release."

[JasonPratt]

Seems a little weird to me that they'd rail a legitimate nuclear-test force through a highly civilian area in the middle of the day -- that isn't the best security for such a movement.

But on the other hand, Russia's gonna russ.  ::)

[GDS_Starfury]

there are many many threads around about how this isnt the doom find its being reported as.

[GDS_Starfury]

[FarAway Sooner]

Honestly, the longer that the Russians refused to withdraw those troops to the west of the occupied banks of the Dnieper, the more likely they were to lose them all together.

I think efforts at rational assessment of Russian intentions went out the window about six months ago.  If I were the Russians practicing brinksmanship, I might consider a nuclear test in Russian territory along the Ukrainian border.

Of course, the biggest limiting factor for the Russians might be whether they can justify to their own public the unilateral use of nuclear weapons in a "special military operation" that they are allegedly already winning and conducting only for humanitarian reasons.  I suspect that they'll claim it was a Ukrainian nuke that detonated before the Uks could use it, but it seems to me that the Russian information space is starting to get a lot more complicated.

[Jarhead0331]

Honestly, the longer that the Russians refused to withdraw those troops to the west of the occupied banks of the Dnieper, the more likely they were to lose them all together.

I think efforts at rational assessment of Russian intentions went out the window about six months ago.  If I were the Russians practicing brinksmanship, I might consider a nuclear test in Russian territory along the Ukrainian border.

Of course, the biggest limiting factor for the Russians might be whether they can justify to their own public the unilateral use of nuclear weapons in a "special military operation" that they are allegedly already winning and conducting only for humanitarian reasons.  I suspect that they'll claim it was a Ukrainian nuke that detonated before the Uks could use it, but it seems to me that the Russian information space is starting to get a lot more complicated.

Nukes are the only card the Russians are still holding. They would be fools to play it because once they do, all bets are off.

[JasonPratt]

It occurs to me that "a nuclear test" "along the Ukrainian border" either means nuking Russia itself in an area that isn't exactly the Siberian steppes, or else 'testing' a nuke in one of those recently referendum'd oblasts.

Would doing a proper test somewhere remote count as brinksmanship? Unclear. But it would be a lot easier for the Russian government to walk away from.

Another option for 'safe' brinksmanship might be to follow the Nork example yesterday/today, and shoot a ballistic missile over Ukraine to land in international waters. (The Norks just shot one over Japan.)


On a possibly related note, Mom said she saw something on the news yesterday (I've been unable to keep up with news much recently) about Putin moving "his weapons" (she didn't hear "nuclear" which wouldn't seem to make sense) between "his warehouses".

[MengJiao]

Honestly, the longer that the Russians refused to withdraw those troops to the west of the occupied banks of the Dnieper, the more likely they were to lose them all together.

I think efforts at rational assessment of Russian intentions went out the window about six months ago.  If I were the Russians practicing brinksmanship, I might consider a nuclear test in Russian territory along the Ukrainian border.

Of course, the biggest limiting factor for the Russians might be whether they can justify to their own public the unilateral use of nuclear weapons in a "special military operation" that they are allegedly already winning and conducting only for humanitarian reasons.  I suspect that they'll claim it was a Ukrainian nuke that detonated before the Uks could use it, but it seems to me that the Russian information space is starting to get a lot more complicated.

Nukes are the only card the Russians are still holding. They would be fools to play it because once they do, all bets are off.

  So far I've been completely wrong about Russians and their cards, but it seems to me they have plenty of cards as soon as they withdraw from Ukraine and start negotiating like a
normal evil regime.

  So, to look at it another way, they might want to avoid the nuke card since it sort of precludes a lot of other cards that (in theory) they could play perfectly well.  Of course, I've been wrong
so far about the Russians -- so who knows?

[Tripoli]

Just some food for thought: On Sunday, David Petraeus said:

"The US and its allies would destroy Russia's troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday.

Petraeus said that he had not spoken to national security adviser Jake Sullivan on the likely US response to nuclear escalation from Russia, which administration officials have said has been repeatedly communicated to Moscow.

He told ABC News: "Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a Nato – a collective – effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea."


It is possible the administration is using Petraeus as a non-official spokesman in this incident.  He still has a lot of credibility, and not being part of the administration, he may be useful to the administration in warning Russia.  I am not saying this is the case.  I am saying it is a possibility.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus

[Pete Dero]

Russian troops are being pushed back in the northeast of the Kherson region, Russian military blog Ryba reports. The Russians would retreat towards Nova Kachovka. In this way they try to avoid being surrounded by advancing Ukrainian fighters.

The Ukrainian army says it has recaptured several villages from Russian troops in the south of the country on Tuesday. Ukrainian President Andriy Yermak, chief of staff, reported this on Telegram on Tuesday. Images circulate on social networks of the liberation of the long-fought Davidiv Brid village, and the villages of Veloka Oleksandrivka and Starosillia on the Inhulets River. However, the information could not be independently verified.

[JasonPratt]

I was about to wonder whether NATO destroying all Orc forces in "Ukraine" included the referendum'd areas, but then I saw he included the Crimea so I suppose those 'republics' would also be included.

[Crossroads]

^ Your image (currently) doesn't show up for some reason, Cross, so I'm forced to assume it features Russians staring blankly at Korean instructions on what to do with arty shells while HIMARS pick them off one by one in the background.  >:D

Sorry, it worked with a preview but got broken then.

No HIMARS as it was not HIMARS o'clock yet at the time. Instead something to showcase the fickle loyalties of us humans  ::)

Looks she's back in the game  :nerd:

[MengJiao]

I was about to wonder whether NATO destroying all Orc forces in "Ukraine" included the referendum'd areas, but then I saw he included the Crimea so I suppose those 'republics' would also be included.

  The threat is kind of intriguing.  With the Russians all upset about how the Anglo-Saxons have been blasting them kind of obliquely
and how NATO seems to haunt them, the image of NATO actually
letting loose on their surviving stuff would seem pretty well-attuned to speaking directly to Russia's actual fears.  For one thing, if the dribblets of gear that the West has sent to
Ukraine have come close to wiping out whatever the Russians have in Ukraine -- one wonders what orders of magnitude of additional damage NATO's conventional firepower might
do to whatever the Russians still have in Ukraine.  Kind of hard to picture, but if I were a Russian, I think I would be pretty concerned.

[JasonPratt]

Take the current target elimination rate and divide the time by, let's say conservatively, six. 

[Tripoli]

Russian troops are being pushed back in the northeast of the Kherson region, Russian military blog Ryba reports. The Russians would retreat towards Nova Kachovka. In this way they try to avoid being surrounded by advancing Ukrainian fighters.

The Ukrainian army says it has recaptured several villages from Russian troops in the south of the country on Tuesday. Ukrainian President Andriy Yermak, chief of staff, reported this on Telegram on Tuesday. Images circulate on social networks of the liberation of the long-fought Davidiv Brid village, and the villages of Veloka Oleksandrivka and Starosillia on the Inhulets River. However, the information could not be independently verified.

the map according to Chuck Pfarrer. (see Starfury's post above) agrees with https://twitter.com/War_Mapper and  https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-222-summary/ appears to agree, although that could simply be circular reporting.


My uneducated read on this is that (assuming this map is accurate), it appears the Russians realize the danger the Ukrainian advance along the Dneiper at Dudchany presents to their entire position west of the Dneiper, and are pulling back from Davydiv Brid to meet this threat.  According to ttps://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-222-summary/ the Ukrainian troops are non-mechanized, so the advance at Davydiv Brid  is likely due more to the Russian pull back. [assuming these maps are correct].  My read is that the Dudchany prong of the advance is aimed aimed at something bigger: the crossing at Nova Kakhovka to cut off reinforcements from the east.  HOWEVER, there is also a power station at  Dudchany, so possibly that is the limited goal of this prong for now. 

If I am reading this correctly ( a big assumption) and if this map is accurate (another assumption), look for Ukrainian ops to begin invic Snihurivka, either to pin the Russians, or to advance along a different axis.