REALLY OUT TO GET ME! -- DC:Barbarossa JasonPratt vs Bartheart (finished)

[JasonPratt]

Yeah, but General Mud (the Rasputista) won't really kick in until late September or early October. I'M NOT MUCH PAST HALF-JULY YET!

I was joking with Barth in another thread that my grand strategy was to trap him at the Urals and the Persian mountains when autumn rains arrive. i.e., with all the board lost! -- and at the rate he's been going, that's where he'll be by autumn!

I'm perversely curious to see to what extent he'll try to crack the Vol Wall at his Central Theater. But I'm more worried about how to even slow him down on the Southern Front. Based on cues I've seen -- special arty and air support, and his capability of running stacks a lot faster than one would expect even given the fact that he's the Wehrmacht blitzkrieging -- I very strongly suspect his war goal, either permanently or temporarily, is to take Rostov. If I'm lucky, his various political situations would either change his goal on Hitler's whim, or require him to go on (somewhat as in real life) to take a further city (Stalingrad or something else). But man, it's a long time until I start getting more armies down south.


Re army activation:  I think he has some kind of mechanic for that, too, but it's a lot different than mine if so. Activation is a key Nuffle factor for the Soviet side. {/BloodBowlRef} Much moreso than for the German side.

I haven't talked a lot about it recently, because I chose a very different political strategy for the early game, but there are ways I could have been improving our activations a lot earlier. In hindsight, I wouldn't choose this strategy again (I think): not only does the game have a semi-random limit on how many armies per turn I can shift over to a different operational stance (offensive, neutral, or defensive); but by the time I earned and spent enough Poli-points to be able to do it for free (or almost so for the neutral and offense stances), all my armies stuck on offensive in a defensive situation (against a foe whom they couldn't feasibly fight on offense anyway), had been annihilated and replaced with fresh armies starting on neutral.

Now, I'm going to make the most I can out of the strategy I chose -- it sure isn't useless -- but I would definitely try a different early game strategic use of my limited Political Points next time.

[JasonPratt]

Okay, my turn again; but I won't be able to play and send it back before late this afternoon or early evening.

[JasonPratt]

Poing back to Barth. The AAR may not arrive until tomorrow afternoon, but it might be tonight depending...

[JasonPratt]

ROUND TEN -- JULY 24, 1941




Well, I can't say I'm altogether surprised. I am a little surprised about a related factor though. More on that as we get to the swamp road.

Stats first!




You can see there what he's talking about. More subtly, you may be able to see that he has started probing forward along the Ostrov - Orsha - Gomel superdefensive line. No huge problems for me yet, but those days are surely coming (again).



 

I can't quite tell if we went up much in the arrival of any divisions -- I'm pretty sure eleven divs are still failing to arrive (we'll see mostly where at the end of this entry). But as far as overall troop numbers...




Not that those new troops are useful per se. But they exist!

Worth noting, is that he must be receiving new divisions by now himself, since he has certainly lost none and has very solidly increased his troop numbers, too.

In other words, the true battle begins now.




In other words, the true battle begins AFTER I'VE LOST ALMOST 1.25 MILLION SOLDIERS!!

In other words, the true battle begins AFTER I'VE LOST ALMOST AS MANY SOLDIERS AS I'VE STILL GOT ON THE FIELD!!

That loss rate won't be decreasing anytime soon. Or maybe it will for one turn, I dunno.

The doomscroll won't take quite as long this time, because while the next stage of the war did start this turn, it hasn't kicked fully into gear yet. I fully expect that's coming.




The most important news here is that the Panzers (and/or MotorInfs) didn't race up the road to Talinn, and so I was able to zip the 23rd Army into and around the city after all. Except for the tanks which I had foolishly tried to send off to help the 237th get home faster. But I've lost so many tanks simply from equipment breakdowns, that those divisions will probably be useless anyway. (In other news, the 168th is still stuck in Petrov, Northern Russian water is still cold and wet.)

I did send out the Leningrad tanks to scout the road for the 237th, especially since I have no idea where that German division which passed the Petrov road is supposed to be. As far as the game is concerned, it's exercising no control in the area, and I managed to cut off what little control it had achieved getting in. But it isn't like there's a hex left over still under German control up there. It's more like they were eaten by bears, or maybe Alamasts (the Russian version of Bigfoot, if I recall the word correctly). Maybe Barth disbanded them...??

The Krusch-ing Malefic Presence is still looming up there. He'll become slightly more useful, maybe, when my last new Tsarist General arrives to take over the Northern Front HQ: I spent 5 of my 15 point tally on that, my only Polipoint purchase this turn. I'm hoping to hold off spending more for another 3 turns so I can put a belated Polipoint reinvestment plan into place.

Scrolling down to the more important action (although I fully expect Talinn to be in trouble next turn):




Well, that could have gone a lot better, but it could have gone a lot worse, too. I haven't lost my low-chance gamble here quite yet, and I even made a key bit of progress!

Sure, my 21st Army (with a bit of support) got punched back, hard, by a couple of elite SS divisions and three other Werhmachts -- I seriously don't know that they could take another hit like that -- but parts of my 28th and 31st Armies swatted one German division out of the way! Which, yes, sounds embarrassing to type, because it is, but! the 31st HQ itself and three divisions then crossed the Dvina, with something like a clear path to the 4th PGruppe's supply line!

This is not something Barth can afford to ignore, and the fact that he moved his HQ back into Dunaberg after evacuating earlier, tells me he's underestimating my chances of seriously screwing with his Northern Front supply. Other parts of my 28th and 20th Armies held the wall against some attempts to cross, too; next turn, ideally, I need to push that hole open in the line and keep surging.

I doubt the random numbers will let that happen, much less Bart himself, but I've done all I can to put myself in a position to take advantage of any good luck falling my way.

In other lower North Front news: Jakobstadt and its nearby allies in the mountains finally fell (making up most of the losses this turn no doubt, since last turn they still had a ton of troops remaining). If my countersurge ends up working to any degree, their sacrifice holding down nearby troops while I built up strength elsewhere will be partly why. This does however mean I've lost track of that whole western wing of Bart's advance. Wherever they went (or didn't go, since they're far ahead of their supply line), it wasn't up to Talinn (yet). I suspect there are more Germs in that area of grey blank chits than I can 'see' right now. More interestingly, Bart hasn't moved his truckline over to J'stadt yet. Either he hasn't noticed the problem (unlikely) or he's loath to disrupt his supply for a turn until he feels safer about the troops protecting Dunaberg. After all, he'd be a lot better off in several ways if his truck route was running up that road south of J'stadt instead. (There might be some kind of political problem on his end, too.)

I thought hard about starting to run my Leningrad Army out of the city to help support either Talinn or (at the top of this map) Pskov, but I figured I'd be better off in the long run trenching up as much as possible, even though I'll surely lose the town soon.

Relatedly, I was serrriously tempted to march my 21st Army out of their temporary defenses and over the river into that swamp south of Ostrov (and the 48th Army) so that they (and the 48th) might try to harass the the line of Bart's advance better. But I finally decided I would be setting myself up for him to attack me better sooner and later if I did that, so I stayed put.


Staying put was mostly what I accomplished on the next screen south, too:




Bart has started his 3rd PGruppe push, if a bit tentatively. Panzergruppes, to remind readers, are the German equivalent of Front HQs on my side, but intentionally mobile like any of his other Army HQs. You can see his Center Theater's one and only PGHQ beyond Minsk now. What's important about that, is that his logistic marker for the 3rd PG is still parked down somewhere near his Forward Supply base marker, i.e. near Minsk. Which is fine for the part of his line that has to try to push through Mogiliv (where that garrison spits alone in their general direction for the past week-ish) and into Ostrov; but not so great for that long line of divisions stretched north which, at this point, are partly there to stop me from a general counter attack back down the rear of his advance on two fronts!!

Now, granted, my troops there, while stronger than before, are still rubbishy compared to his. But I'm in better supply, and he has been sitting there, beyond supply, for quite a while now. I'm hoping that part of his line is getting more fragile than he's expecting.

Not that that will make much difference if I don't get more activations more regularly soon. I had two places, including tanks in the forest, where I could have concentrated some local counterattacks, but I just didn't have the movement points remaining (or at all) for it. Maybe in the long run that will be for the best, though, since most or all of those divisions were still reorganizing after my massive success at getting STAVKA last turn to issue defensive stances. (I only succeeded in issuing one this turn, or maybe two, before STAVKA shut down in a snarl, argh.)

Anyway, aside from shuffling a few more divisions south of the line, to plug a remaining hole and to stiffen the line with some of the 43rd's cav divisions (which are basically light tank divs), the main interest here remains the question of whether I can push parts of the 31st Army through their brittle northern sector and into his North Front's supply corridor. Still not impossible, but still very dicey.

As for his Central Front's supply train-line...




...well, we haven't snapped it yet, by far, but we made a hex of progress, which was the best we could do under the Zone of Control circumstances this turn.

This is what Bart's quip about marsh-mallow pockets was about, of course. Well, not surprising. I was tempted to turn my Armies around and try to smash my way back into supply eventually; but I don't think his 4th Army is going to be up to killing us for another few turns; and if I can just project my tanks beyond my advancing blob in the next couple of turns, then it might not matter if three whole armies get annihilated on the road. This is still my best shot at turning Barbarossa around in my favor, and I've got to take it. I've gotten farther than I dared imagine to seriously hope already. The fact that he decided to advance the whole front toward Ostrov rather than protect his train line, tells me he either doesn't yet know how endangered he is, or he's underestimating the threat.

Or, maybe he has reinforcements coming in from the west. His troop numbers have super-increased above his divisions' full capacity, so new divisions must be on the field somewhere. And I notice something south of the road is projecting 5 mpoints of zone of control, including over the road. I may have already lost the race, but I don't know that yet for sure, so I've got to keep running -- and maybe even keep running if/when I know I've lost the race!

Besides, I've shuffled three cav divisions down to the start of the road back from Gomel (where I prudently put my free minor garrison this turn, by the way), and even ran a tank div up from the 44th Army holding the bridge north from Kiev. Maybe in the next few turns they can help open supply again?

Speaking of Kiev:




It's still a disaster, but it still could be a lot worse. And probably will be next turn. But not yet.

At least they have a slight fighting chance, unlike the other people on the next doomscroll south...




No point even marking that up. If only the 12th could activate, at the Romanian Roadblock, I feel like we could punch past those relatively minor numbers and try to raise some havoc back toward Lvov!! I had to make some hard choices about where to send Zukhov this turn (since he had finally made it back to Moscow after missing the defunct Baltic HQ's demise), and in the end there was no real question: I had to send him where his activation bonuses could contribute best to my best chance at smacking Barth hard, namely the 16th Army on the Swamp road (whose tanks are trying to run forward to ruin the Brest supply line). Next would have been one of the armies trying to snip the North Front supply line. But third would have been here, at the Romanian Roadblock -- just to see if putting him in direct command would result in a surprise breakout northwest.

Last, but not quite least:




The 45th Army, up there by Kirov, is where most of my missing not-yet-deployed-divisions will be going; and now that they're literally back on the double-track, they have some hope of stacking up better next turn. Until they get surrounded by the blitz anyway. But I really want to know how the heck the Romanians and their German allies are being supplied down here. Because I feel like I could be messing them up if my 46th Army would just activate reliably, punching back west along the coast, and surging up their backside (not even bothering yet with retaking Odessa.)

That's all wishful thinking: however he's supplying those troops, I expect he'll be rolling the Germans around in a pocket to trap the South Army and the 46th soon. After which, he might be literally at Persia before enough new armies arrive in this theater to even slow him down a turn or two.




It's hard to believe we're still technically winning, and by a lot. But it's also hard to believe we aren't even out of July yet.

Next turn, still no reinforcements for a while, and August begins! ...uh, begins to approach, I mean!  :'( :-[

[Crossroads]

Epic tidings! Following with an interest  :)

[JasonPratt]

What? Can it be?? Two turns this weekend at being curbstomped by Nazis??? Be still my beating heart! (...ripped out of my chest and set on fire. See: curbstomping. Also: Nazis.)

TURN 11 -- JULY 28, 1941




Yeah, well, right now mud is an annoyance keeping Bart from winning more quickly.

But mud may have just outright killed my first real chance at turning this war around.

Not helped by this.




In theory, his random executions are supposed to be weighed toward high levels of perceived threat, and since threat is tied to competency then it's just too bad that they tend to help activate armies better.

In practice, his two paranoia fits have killed off low-threat-level targets who just happened to be experienced at getting armies to activate.

Incidentally, I did check for, and receive and install, a new version of the game before running this turn. If there's a bug, I hope it was fixed -- the results here were technically generated by the previous version of the game at the end of my previous turn.

Maybe more importantly than two relatively experienced generals being wiped out and replaced with less experienced ones, Stalin's fit means I can't play any cards this turn except for deploying reinforcements. Which I don't have any of.

Strat roll says...!






 

Not a lot of change there, but fewer divs on balance I think.




Practically no change at all there in my net numbers, but the Germans have massively upscaled the number of their divisions. This cannot be good for me in any way, shape, form, or fashion.



My rate of losses flattens out a little more, but still losses. Worth noting, my loss-slope seems about equal to Bart's this turn! -- still a little steeper, I think, but more importantly there's no way that semi-parity can last. I'm still Russia in Barbarossa after all.

Speaking of, let the doom scroll freely!




One bit of good news is that the stuck 168th up in Petrov has finally made contact with Leningrad HQ, and so can move (sometimes, maybe). So it's on the road south at last. With a German division meandering around up there somewhere, doing God knows what.

Next turn I'll be able to start dropping new HQs for a few turns, but doubtless that'll begin at Luga, to try to block the road from Pskov up to Len. Until then, I know from looking farther south that Bart will only have minor troops trying to cross the river swamp to get past the Pskov garrison (although strictly speaking he could just leave that garrison alone and go around it.) My Ostrov line is still holding strong.

Consequently, I felt pretty safe taking a risk of moving half my Len troops (including the motorized and armored divs) down to that little town halfway between Talinn and Len to guard the bridge there.

This won't stop Talinn from being cut off next turn; but I've jiggered people around (and punched an infantry division by the way) so that I have the smallest possible chance of getting someone around back behind their advance from the west. I even toyed with sending those divisions farther west to the coast, but I knew he'd only cut me off and mostly paralyze me (moreso than he already probably will). I've done all I can to protect Talinn, a major city, from falling for another turn or two. Maybe next turn I can even send them a major garrison -- Stalin's paranoia prevented that this turn.

Remember, if/when Talinn falls, the Finns will almost certainly release for operations beyond their borders. And that will be all kinds of bad.




Bart ought to be thanking the mud, not whining about it. The primary reason (aside from paranoias screwing with my activations this turn) that I don't even have a chance of gapping through there to get to his exposed truckline, is because of the mud.

But the 21st Army survived another punch, and should be better prepared to defend itself henceforth -- only two of my armies are currently still re-orging to defense, and so taking some minor debuffs while they do so.




Nothing much happening here yet, but he did punch back a stack despite the mud; whereas I can't even get enough points (thanks to mud and paranoia) to hit those tanks in the trees. At least I'll have enough movement points to defend a little better next time.

Oh, and he finally got bored with the Mogiliv garrison taunting him, but that was going to happen eventually anyway. I'm just going to imagine they all evacuated safely over the bridge after the civilians got out, and now they can filter back into our ranks as reinforcements someday.


Here's where mud and paranoia really hurt me though.




Those tanks could have run across to snap the line at Brest. With my starving armies one hex farther west along the road, to help keep that line snapped as long as possible.

Instead, my starving armies starve in the swamp another turn, with no movement ability at all. Oh, and next turn is likely to have more mud, whee. Not incidentally, Zukhov didn't arrive at the 16th HQ this turn.

Look, I understand the random numbers aren't going to go my way much in this game, and that this plan always had a significant chance of failing. I suppose I can take some comfort that it'll fail due to a single bad dice roll, and not by a misplan on my part (although in hindsight I could have done a little better here).

Still. It's bitter. So very, very bitter.

I do have some fast-movers nearby ready to help re-establish the supply line a bit, but they weren't strong enough this turn to punch a single German division aside. The 34th Army will be sending some troops to help with that next turn; but I doubt it will make enough difference quickly enough.




47th Army has done all it can feasibly do to block the bridge out of Kiev; and by the way, Zukhov has been entirely unable to serve one of his primary functions so far, being able to blow such bridges (because I can't get him anywhere useful yet).

So, to be blunt, it's every division for itself, in a race back in the general direction of Karkov. A race I expect to lose.

I might as well not even show a snapshot of the Romanian Roadblock. It still exists, more starved, for now. But its easternmost stack has died. Two stacks remaining.

Lastly...




The one place mud clearly helped me this turn (I suppose it's possible the mud kept him from hurting me worse farther north), was in keeping him from looping around my South Army. But he still punched a stack very hard up there; and the mud kept my 45th Army from getting more divisions activated, and from being able to try maneuvering to retake Kirov.

And the mud kept my 46th Army from crossing the river and trying a southern punch back south across his line. Maybe that's a fool's dream anyway, and the mud saved me from disaster thereby.





Still technically winning by a lot, but we all know better.

Next turn, though...




...more cursed frogurt armies start to arrive for a while, on my North and South Fronts (and even Central for a couple of turns). I don't know what I can possibly do with them, but considering how spread out he is, maybe they can be of some assistance.

[W8taminute]

You've got him held pretty well up north.  Keep him away from Leningrad!

You can afford to lose more land in the center and south, more so in the south.  Give your armies a chance to refit and regroup. 

[JasonPratt]

Unfortunately, he isn't giving my armies time to refit and regroup. That's part of the point to blitzkrieg.  ::)

Still, I'm glad someone feels optimistic.  8)

[Boggit]

A brilliant AAR, well written, great humour, and an excellent read. Well done. O0 I look forward to your next instalment.

[JasonPratt]

Yay, I can finally get back to being molested by Nazis! 

Unfortunately, I have a headache this afternoon (and also was planning on working on something else), so probably my turn won't go back until late tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. And then the AAR for the turn sometime after that.

Besides, it would bad form if I got my AAR up before Barth does!  >:D 

[besilarius]

You, sir, are a scholar and a gentleman.

[JasonPratt]

Well, since our previous turn, DC3: Barbieroast won the Grogheads Reader's Choice Best Game of 2016 (and some related award iirc, like Best Strategy), so allow me to provide the award advertisement blurb.

Ahem.

"The premier gateway strategy game for S&M couples!" -- Grogheads.

...not that Barth and I are an S&M couple.

Though we might as well be.

TURN 12 -- August 1, 1941




Not a euphamism!

As expected and hoped, no pique from Stalin this turn, so I could accrue some more Polipoints. My current political strategy is to horde points with a primary goal of reinvesting them to make more points each turn; and then to use any remaining points after I buy more points to finally start 'playing' with them. This will tend to bump up Stalin's paranoia, but I'm hoping I'll be able to afford some action by the Reaper to offset that. Eventually.

In effect, I won't be able to spend Polipoints on anything else (if possible) for the next three turns. I hope I can survive that long.

But hey, I've survived until August! Woo!




...for certain values of "survive".



 

He killed off a net 4 Divisions on his turn. I picked up a few, arriving late to their HQ, but not many. I still have over 20 divisions ready to deploy to their HQs who just haven't yet.




I did tick up a little more than 4000 troops on the balance!




Losses sloped back up again, though, since Barth started his panzers moving again. So did his losses, too -- maybe at a slightly steeper slope than any previous four days! But let's be real, we all know there's no hope in that.

Also no hope for Talinn.




I thought long about trying to move that detached corps around south behind the German advance south of Talinn. But ultimately I just couldn't trust that those divisions would activate reliably enough, as they got farther away from the 23rd Army HQ (or even if they didn't!) to make a run for the back field.

Also, I accidentally told them to move back into Talinn when I wanted to click that hex to see how the troops in the city were doing. {shaking my head} If there's one goofy user interface mechanic in the game, it's that one. Hard to explain to someone who hasn't played the game, though.

Instead, I moved up my Leningrad HQ to support the four detached divisions rumbling down the road toward Talinn, and currently setting up in... uh, whatever that town is on the river. I'll be getting reinforcement armies each turn in the North for a little while -- starting with the 42nd Army which I plopped on the last town before Leningrad on the road from the southern Northern Front. I'm not sure I dare to run any new armies on the northern railroad to Finland (north of that lake north of Leningrad), but I might be able to relieve the siege of Talinn while still guarding Lgrad from the nigh inevitable surge of the Finnish. And maybe bears can fly.

Bears are plodding south from Petrozav, too, and the 227th should be in range to help defend L'grad in... oh, another two weeks. Or three.




By which time I fully expect the 24th and 48th (conscript) armies to have been pocketed and wiped out. A few near-shattered armored divisions from the North Front manage to retreat back into the Central Front staging town of... uh... Polotsk? I forget. I'm hoping I can pull back the 21st Army superstack at least one hex soon (I've got them set to retreat on 25% losses) so I can create and keep open a supply channel for the North/Central Front's big Hail Mary (or the Eastern Orthodox equivalent)...




...the 28th and 31st Army Stacks (somewhat intermingled) daring the second slowest counter-blitz ever, to strike at the 4th PGruppe's logistic tail.

By all rights I shouldn't have even gotten this far -- especially considering the mud I've had to put up with -- but I'm one or two turns away from knifing his truckline. And maybe even retaking Dunaberg.

I am beginning to dare to hope this insane plan will work. But surely, surely Barth won't just let me do that. He'll just rejigger his truckline up another road, right? Or is he using his own logistic trail as bait for a trap?? After all, this is nominally a suicide run.

My one free fortification this turn goes to that stack of six divisions between the 28th and 21st armies. I'm hoping I can pull back the 21st (in a fighting retreat if necessary) to solidify a minimum supply chain out to the 31st on the counter-blitz spearhead. Relatedly, I'm going to get two new conscript armies for Central over the next few turns, and while I didn't plop the first new HQ up here, I'm definitely plopping the second next turn, somewhere in the area. Polotsk would make good sense for supporting the counter-blitz and maybe helping to snip off any dogs trying to roll and run around the swamp toward my main remaining Northern roadblock. But if not there...




...then maybe at Vitebsk. It's about time for me to start pulling back the northern Central Defense line to the Vitebsk road, and probably also to send an army or two up past the river (from where I started this surge originally, hoping to find a weak area to strike into Barth's backfield.)

Ideally, Barth would thin his line enough trying to push north, that I can launch a general offensive back across the river near Mogiliv. But I'm not ready to do that yet, and certainly want to wait until I see whether this plan fails...




...the actual slowest counter-blitz ever.

Although by all rights I shouldn't have gotten so far to the north, by the same token I really ought to have been able to push this home already, maybe even to retaking Brest.

But no, between mud, and sucky organization (thus sucky activations), and Zhukov failing to arrive on time, and failing to do his dang job when he got here at last... one twiggy little hex of advance by the armored divs. sighhhh...

When I lose this game, you-all are the reason why. I hope Barth-ler puts you all up against your own dug graves and has you shot. How hard is it TO FREAKING WALK A ROAD?!?!

So I dropped my first of two new Central conscript army HQs into Gomel; because my southern elements of the defensive line are too scared to try to help rescue their damned comrades. We'll see if Barth stops laughing at the hideous comedy here next turn to bother to do something about it at last. If he leaves me alone, I will snap the only supply line he's got for two whole Panzergruppes.




Things are slightly less dire on the upper Southern Front, with the first elements of the 47th arriving in Kharkov (the next big VP station on the blitz train), and the first of several new armies to be arriving for a while in the Southern theater making an appearance in Kursk. Oh, I'll be reinforcing other parts, too (starting with Kharkov), but my tentative plan is to gather up the 37th when they sufficiently finish arriving, and run them back west across the Central front, to help support the line there and maybe catch Barth with a little surprise. I suspect he plans to run or walk a few divisions around the 44th to completely pocket them before trying an attack across the river and bridge.




Not much to say here. I finally got impatient waiting for the mongoloids of the 45th Army to shamble into place, and struck out northwest without them.

I'm hoping this counts less as "impatience" and more as "making a move before I'm caught outside Kirovostad by the next rampaging surge of the southern blitz." I trust y'all can see what I'd ideally like to mess with over there to the west.




Not quite last, and not quite least, the good weather didn't just give Barth a chance to surge his divisions of shot-down pilots in a new pocketing maneuver; it also allowed me to push the 46th conscript army across the river at Nikolajev, so that I have some bare chance to try doing something with it instead of just sitting and starving in town when that pocket collapses. I strenuously doubt this will come to anything, but unless I'm there I can't even try, and at least I'm "there" now.




Actually last, and actually least, the brave 12th Army was finally pushed out of Czernowitz, which in their honor I'll fully spell at least once. The Romanian Roadblock now shall die, but at least they'll die in a mountain defense. (This is where I disbanded my one division per turn for partisans, too.)

What sayeth the current score?




Still solidly winning, if you can count it that! But Barth's non-adjusted score is finally starting to catch up.

And we have a lonnnng way to go to even get to September.




The cruddy reinforcements will continue until morale improves! -- or the beatings. Whichever improves first.

[JasonPratt]

TURN 13 -- August 5, 1941




If you want to know where he's getting that term, you should be reading his DAR (dang action report), too!

24 divisions deployed this turn, but... well, you'll see. 20 divisions tried to deploy but failed; and I still have 27 divisions that could deploy but haven't yet.

Plus I'll get to drop another three Army HQs, one per Front, this turn; but that'll be the end for the Central front until, God help me, sometime in September. And not early September either.

Let's strattle up!




The first thing you should notice not noticing, is that my Romanian Roadblock has finally fallen. This was expected, but still tragic.



 

I wish I could say the net results there only reflect the destruction of some shattered divs that didn't even have many men left, but...





And that's with 24 fully manned divisions arriving.




This sort of thing is why historically the Japanese Empire thought it had a reasonable chance at taking over Southeast Asia and the Southwest Pacific. I keep having to invent new chart notches to describe how horrible the casualties are.

Keep in mind. These are never going down. And even toward the end of the historical war, Germany's will never get that high. And this game only gets to the end of Barbarossa. Assuming I even make it to the end. Which at this point...

Well, let the doom scroll freely on the winds of time.




The 23rd Army did manage a punch of part of its forces out of Talinn; but even with (most of) the Leningrad army pushing westward out of Narva, I don't think it's going to help. Still, I learned that superstacking more than 200 points in a hex leads to radically increased casualties, and this'll be one less hex they can attack from, so.

My one new Northern army, the 52nd, I put into Narva so that if the situation is even a little salvagable two turns from now maybe they can help. Next turn, I'll be able to move the 42nd Army out of Luga, but whether that's south to help hold the main line, or west to help on the Narva road out of Talinn, I don't know yet. I assume I'll be putting my next arriving army in Leningrad, so despite how I marked the screenie I don't think I'll be moving it north.

Zipping down south to the Pskov-Ostrov line:




I put my free fortifications for the turn up there with the 1st and 12th Inf Divs.

Mostly here I just spread out more, to minimize problems with superstacking leading to increased casualties. This allowed me to try a few spoiling attacks on some nearby groups; but despite taking the time and effort to arrange my counter-attacks more intelligently, I don't think I really accomplished anything.

Speaking of superstacks being not so great.




Those two large stacks protecting Polotsk from western advance, got pushed together; and their supply cut off; and next turn Barth will be able to attack from five sides at once. And that'll be the end of that. sigh.

I did force him to reshuffle his main supply train to Riga; and I did push a few divisions farther westward, where maybe they can loop around to help mess with Dunaberg. But since he surged troops past the river behind me already, I'm pretty sure it won't be enough.

I've done the best I could here under the circumstances I think. The incipient failure is harsh, and our losses will be monstrous, but at least I tried something.




My more standard defensive line at Orsha continues to hold, with a sound smacking of the 7th Panzers who advanced a little too far and got slapped back. But things look dire at the north end of this line, so the 42nd Army in reserve at Orsha surged some troops forward to help plug the gaps, and my new Central Army for the turn plopped its HQ in Vitebsk. It is entirely possible and even probable that Barth will run back southeast from his surge and push them out next turn, but the town won't just be sitting there waiting defenselessly.




I have a strong suspicion that I've seen the last of any movement by my swamp-road armies -- even with Zhukov around -- unless I can mount a rescue. That rescue didn't happen this turn, and I doubt it'll ever succeed in happening at all. Again, losses will be monstrous, but at least I tried something. Perhaps next turn I'll be able to maneuver something a little better: did push some strong corps across the Dneiper, and I'm pulling back and spreading out the army guarding the bridge to Gomel. Plus next turn I'll have the 49th conscript army ready to move.




The developing Karkov line continues to develop. I'll be putting all my new Southern Armies over here for a while, including the 38th HQ arriving in Kharkov itself. The 47th is now being regularly hit by advancing Germies as they slog to Khark, but the 171st bravely volunteers to hole up in some nearby low mountains to act as a sacrificial rearguard.




Since the 1st Romanian Armored Div was so kind as to chase my 45th Army out of Kirov, I've returned the favor by attempting a nice textbook encirclement! I doubt it'll come to anything, but I might as well practice while I've got something like local superiority of numbers.

Meanwhile, my free minor garrison for this turn goes to Dneipetrovsk, which may help give my Southern Front HQ time to pack up and head out ahead of the advancing blitizies.




Lastly, northeast of Odessa: the most that can be said here, is that the 46th (or 48th, I forget which) got its chance to push those Romanian borderguards out of the way, and failed. This, in hindsight, should have probably been a full superstack operation and to hell with the casualties. But I've spread out our failing divisions around Nikolov a little better, so maybe we'll last a tad longer.




So, will next turn be when his score finally catches up with mine? -- or will it be the turn after that?

I very, very seriously considered using my superpower to activate all armies next turn, in order to try to save those advance counter-thrusts, or maybe even to make them effective. He's already getting a 13 percent bonus on his scoring, and that would increase it again. In hindsight, after I sent in my turn, I feel like I should have gone ahead and done it. What's the point of those attempts if I can't do anything with them??

I did spend all my Polipoints on Demanding More Power from the Politburo, so I'll start getting 15 Pp per turn henceforth -- but then I learn that card can be only played once. So, so much for trying to reinvest in growing my Polipoints.

Also, just like last turn, my first attempt at trying to turn some armies to defense failed, shutting down all further STAVKA action; but at least I had enough sense to wait until near the end of the turn to do that. I suspect if I had tried at the start of the turn, my chances would be higher, but being on "neutral" isn't bad.




I'm going to need some hard decisions next turn about where to put more southern reinforcements. Northern reinforcements will surely be near L'Grad. And it'll be early-mid October before I can expect any further reinforcements in the middle. But I can't complain, I've had a huge surge there and if I can't hold with those, then... well, then I shouldn't have tried running a counter-thrust back up the swamp road toward Brest, huh.

[JasonPratt]

TURN 14 -- AUGUST 9, 1941




That's true, sort of -- I mean on the points, it's a lonnnnnnnng way to any reliable Rasputista, and in my past experience it hurts me as much as him (if not moreso). But the actual gamescore that counts is the one I always show at the end of my report. Where his unadjusted score is rapidly catching up, although I'm still way ahead of his divided-in-half adjusted score.

I have a hard time imagining how much worse things could be in early August for me, though. I've certainly bungled a number of key things, beyond the usual Soviet difficulties.

Losing Talinn on Barth's turn, although mostly expected, didn't help. Aside from helping his supply situation, and adding yet more VPs to his tally, he also thus releases his allies to FINNISH ME OFF! :P And also thus triggered another Stalin paranoia which totally handicapped my strategic cards this turn (except for reinforcement arrivals -- and Zhukov, more on him eventually).

This time he shoots three generals, none of whom had a large threat perception. I'm convinced there's something wrong with the programming here, since literally the whole point of the threat perception is to give Stalin targets for execution. Instead he's killing off high-activation generals, more often than not: including a 60 point general this time.

The other two generals, fortunately for me, were replaced by almost equivalents: I only lost a net two points there. But going from 60 to 5 activation on a general hurts. A lot.

21 new divisions did arrive, and another 18 will start arriving into distribution next turn, but 25 divs are still held up in transit. And most of my armies either partially or didn't activate.

At least there wasn't mud. Yet.

Stratmap at the start of my turn:




I want everyone to notice the giant gaping gap leaving Moscow totally open. Sure, he has a long way to go to get there, but I have literally nothing in the way to stop him. And nothing more arriving in the Central Front for another 15 turns.

Well, after that depressing realizing there's nothing but harshness!




Don't let those numbers lead you into hope. Sure, I'm glad the overall troop numbers improved again, but once my two aborted retarded counterthrusts get murdered off, those numbers will drop like a rock.




I mean, sure, his losses continue to slope up slightly. But my losses barely slowed down. And they'll be speeding up a lot soon.

Doomscroll, advance!




My gamble at leaving only a couple of divisions entrenched at L'grad, to give myself more flexibility in helping farther south, may well have been fatal. The Finns, and their pet Wehrmacht division, may easily roll over the city before the newly sited 54th Army starts to arrive at all; certainly the 52nd won't be getting back in time (much less the actual Len Army), and the 42nd Constript Army will be lucky if its cavalry are even at L'grad's gates four days from now.

One slightly soft spot in the harshness, is that the heroic 23rd Regular Army, running away from Talinn, managed to run away to the forest and back into supply (for now). You go, guys! I mean, I'm honestly amazed they could even make it out, and if they're alive they can pretend to fight again later. But the Finns. The Finns... {smh}

The Finns raiding Leningrad are the least of my worries, but:





...the Pskov / Ostrov line is still holding out decently, despite my armored corps (or detachment or whatever) being punched back a hex by the 6th Panzers. I could have moved them forward again, but I'm taking a slight gamble in seeing if I can draw evildoers up into more of a surround.

That would be better than that SS division down there deciding to hell with Ostrov, let's just go for Moscow before September. I cannot stress enough that there's NOTHING standing in their way, and that one division by itself would win the game.

And God help me, Barth has more than that one division by itself in position to run for Moscow.




Since it is literally impossible for Soviet troops to walk anywhere, my northern counter-blitz will die where it sits. I don't foresee any help coming for it, ever. You all deserve to starve to death for refusing to ruck up.

The defense of Ostrov is still holding for now, but things look dire for the near future. And for Moscow in the slightly less near future.




Still holding the bridge to Gomel, but the attacks have begun. I shuffled some of the 44ths infantries around to keep them fresh, but naturally sacrificed the entrenchments doing so, because entrenchments magically disappear in this and most other games.

The 49th Army is able to move out of Gomel now, or some of it, so I send what can move south, where I may be able to help the 44th, or perhaps push west into the swamps. Both of the 44th's armored divs are up at the swamp road now with various cavalries, but no one wanted to try helping elements of the 33rd and 34th Armies shove two Germy divisions out of the way.

I would have flown Zhukov out this turn, since I'm doubtful he can do anything to push the stuck counter-blitz onward -- they just don't have the fuel, and refuse to ruck up for the sake of WINNING THE WHOLE GAME! But thanks to Stalin's insane fit, I can't move Zhuk out. I can however spend my 15 Ppoints this turn (which I receive after Stalin's fit would have drained any remaining out) on experimenting whether encouraging the 16th's General is worth anything in these conditions. Should supply ever get back to him, he ought to be a beast at getting things moving now.




The Kursk / Kharkov line is shaping up nicely (considering the total disasters leading to this being a line at all), although I'm now doubtful that northern army will be able to move westward in time to be of any help. Still, it might be possible to hang out over the Front border and catch the oncoming Germs in an enfilade. There's also still a question of whether I'll be able to get the 47th to Belograd, or what if anything I'll be able to do once I get there.

Going back to the total disasters, though...




...a miscue sends the 45th's tanks into the mountains instead of around to help catch the single Romanian armored div, parked in a forest, in a three-way ambush. I still try anyway because what the hell. This little dare will soon no doubt fail. In hindsight, I should have gone ahead and moved the rest of the Army into the mountains, too.

Then to the last disaster:




Still unable to break into the Romanian rear with a whole (albeit conscript) army, but I spread the defense team out a little more in and around Nik, so as to be less vulnerable to surrounds and overstacking.

I thought seriously about sending my reinforcement army for the South this turn to Perekop or Meli, but I honestly don't have confidence that the Nikol pocket will survive the turns necessary to bring them help from that direction; and given how bad things are elsewhere, I've decided to start building up some kind of defense in front of Rostov farther east.




I didn't feel confident enough divisions would arrive to protect 40th HQ if I deployed them at Pawlograd either before an opportunistic panzer division arrives; but if I drop them into Stalino, and future ones in that area, too, maybe they can come forth to try something later.







I have to say I'm doubtful three more conscript armies will arrive in time anywhere to accomplish anything worthwhile on the Southern Front. But I'll sure try.

[JasonPratt]

TURN 15 -- August 13, 1941

Well, let's see what fresh horrors shall lurch from today's news...




Oh thank the Theotokos, the 54th arrived in time to save Leningrad! Phew. Barth thinks his intelligence reports were wrong, but he had actually done the right thing. I just barely pulled that hash out of the fire.

Not that this will save Moscow. To quote Steve Martin (not that wild and crazy guy), "Nothing can save the city now." I can only hope Barth doesn't know that yet.

15 new Divisions deployed this turn, but almost 30 are still failing to deploy. Another 18 will be arriving for distribution next turn with two out of my last three Army headquarters until almost October.

Our positions at the beginning of my turn:




Only mud can save us now. And August is only half through. The weathermen don't want to hazard a guess about weather next turn, though, which seems both hopeful and ominous.

I've been forgetting to put up the comparative inter-turn division list for the past couple of turns, so let me start rectifying that for next turn:




Now, I don't really have any late conscript infantry divs, but I have 25 divisions with tank battalions, and a little more importantly (at least in theory) I have 9 late tank divisions arriving recently. Those things have early models of the T-34 and the KV-1.

That doesn't begin to begin to deal with Panzergruppes, but it's something.

And hey, I'm glad to see 18 new divisions arriving, since that helped create this new graph plot.




That's the first time German numbers on their East Front have gone down in some kind of improving relation to us since half a game (8 turns ago).

But it's important to keep in mind, I kept my relative field numbers from last turn despite...




...the continuation of absolutely horrific losses, which are only going to continue and possibly escalate for a while. In fact the Germans suffered fewer casualties last turn than since about 6 turns ago. They only dropped in overall numbers because they stopped getting reinforcements in the field last turn apparently. Whereas they slew 18 fresh divisions worth of Soviet troops last turn! The only reason my numbers stayed level was because 18 fresh divisions arrived.

As bad as things are, and friends they are bad -- possibly worse in some regards than historical Barbarossa -- the north front is seeing some glimmers of hope.




As already noted, my desperate gamble of sending the Len HQ and most of its army south to try to rescue the Talinn defense, opened the Finns to try to take Leningrad itself when Talinn fell anyway. The 54th managed to deploy enough divisions in the city in time to convince the Finns and their pet Nazi division to pull back to the border.

With L'grad safe for now against any attack from the north (although I'm honestly surprised he isn't going to try an encircle siege -- something I will definitely put a block on next turn once my divs can move), I'm thinking of moving my long-suffering surviving 227th infantry down to its newly assigned HQ trying to help the escape from Talinn. That'll still take a while, but I'd rather keep my armies together if possible.

The wounded, staggering 168th infantry, the only other survivor of Army North, took a slight detour on the rail line to scout that, yep, some Finns remain up there. I truly don't understand why he hasn't swarmed me with Finns down that track from Petro -- even a few would be cataclysmic, but I am damn well going to put my final North Front army until autumn up there, just in case. Also just in case I see a chance to move back north and get revenge for my lost north Army.




Baby's first real chance at knocking out a German division! He'll no doubt escape south next turn, and I can't exactly fault his assumption that he'd be safe there as arrogance -- because it no doubt helped launch a stunning attack on my 23rd Army trying to escape. But while I may still lose a few divisions, there's some hope of pulling back through the Narva corridor now.

I very, very seriously thought about whether to try to send the 42nd across the woods to Narva, or down the tracks south to Pskov, since I wasn't going to need them at Leningrad after all (or not directly, since action either way would help forestall the advance toward L'grad.) As you can see from the 42nd's lone cavalry division, I first thought about sending them over to Narva and trying to add to a push. But eventually I decided with dubious weather coming to march them slowly south to Pskov. The cav will be a turn or two behind, but they'll catch up eventually.




The Pskov/Ostrov line is still holding for now, partly because he diverted some forces down to start finishing off the superstack that tried to snip his supply. But you can see why I want more troops down here, not only for defense but also to try pushing across the river at Pskov.

Meanwhile I've been trying a few spoiling attacks here and elsewhere to test his line and keep him honest. Maybe not the best idea, admittedly, but I have trouble with the idea of sitting around waiting for him to kill me.

Which unfortunately is all that the northern counter-blitz can now expect.




The superstack won't last another turn (I sent one division to the partisans, who for all I can tell are doing nothing but what the heck why not); and the small advance stack won't last much longer than that. This'll be the last I show of them, probably. It was a long dice throw, and I'm going to be sorry I opened the front to try it. But it would have worked if not for the damned mud.




This is the unmititgated nightmare I have to deal with now as a direct result of that gamble. I'm pulling back some forces from the defensive line at the river to try to prevent a total pocketing by threatening to snip off his pocketers... but I'm dubious. Very, very dubious.

The red circles show where I've tried a few attacks, less as spoilers to keep him honest and more as prodding for any possible way out of this mess that might screw him over.




Which would have been devastating had those clowns on the swamp road done their damn job. And yes, mud didn't help them either, but they had real chances. And they blew it, because they couldn't be arsed to wake up in the morning and win. Much to my not-surprise, Barth finally gets tired of laughing at us on the swamp road and easily pushes in for the win, wiping over half the three armies out with what amounts to one spread out small army.

Speaking of people who can't be arsed to win, my rescue attempt finally stumbled across the river at another point, and pushed two German divisions back one hex. Woot. Better than nothing. But not better than catching them in a three way and saving the swamp road armies two turns ago. At least the 44th is still doing its job, aside from its tanks failing to help rescue the swamp team.

You know what would be hilarious? My armies can operate outside their front, and could theoretically march safe from harassment westward south of the swamp road. But I doubt that's going to happen.

Speaking of doing their jobs...




...the 37th Army splendidly got off their asses and probed back west safely over the Central/South Front border, looking for a way to either help relieve the Central Front or to push south across the river to snip 1st PGruppe's HQ. It looks like Barth's going to secure the river there, but that's four or more divisions he isn't using on the push to Kharkov/Kursk line. Which I managed to escape back to, to handily form up for a defense. Now we pray (and fortify, and garrison...)




Moving south of that line, things are still looking bad on the road to Rostov -- which I'm nearly certain is Barth's chief objective for the game (plus whatever else he needs to secure Rostov, like Stalingrad). But not as bad as they could be. The rail line out of Stalino will have two armies ready to rumble soon.

To be honest, if I hadn't spent all my points on assigning Central Front as the key supply front, and on reorganizing the Red Army (which could stand more work, but it's a start), I would have diverted both of my coming final two armies to the Moscow region. As it is, South Front will get one more conscript army, and then Central will get a diverted one two turns from now as I re-direct. So until near winter, this is almost all I've got to work with in the South.




And whatever complaints I may have about incompetency on the Central swamp road, I have only myself to blame for opening up the central line to try that northern counter-thrust. Just like I have only myself to blame for trying to be cute in deploying 45th Army near Kirovograd, when I should have put it back behind Dneprpetrovsk (or even farther). Now they're stuck in the mountains near the Dneiper, and will probably be fully caught soon. They may slow down some troop elements, but I expect they're lost.




Last but not least, I have only myself to blame for the nonsense going on north of Odessa. I should have at least gotten the 46th there to pull back over the river from Nikol to Perekop. That should have been a fighting retreat. But no, I had to advance forward onto that little spit of land to slap in futility at the Romanians. And now that's all I can do, although two or maybe three infantry divisions may be able to make it out alive. Without a HQ.

As much of a continuing disaster as that is, I want to stress....




...no, no, it's certainly bad that the unadjusted German score has now passed mine. But that's just the beginning. And almost incidental.




Gape. Gape in the face of true disaster.

And standing in the way of that:




Two turns from now.

In two turns, he could easily be in Moscow.

Learn from my mistakes, y'all.

Learn them.