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US versus China

Started by UN Weapons Inspector, October 05, 2021, 07:10:23 AM

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UN Weapons Inspector

Hi all , I thought you would be interested in this article in todays Guardian from Lt Col Daniel L Davis (ret)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/05/the-us-must-avoid-war-with-china-over-taiwan-at-all-costs
In brief the author reckons that going to war with China over Taiwan will end with USA defeat with heavy losses and may even cause the nuclear war with all the consequences. The only valid alternative, according to article is economical sanctions and make a China an international pariah.
Personally I disagree , specially with second point. How can you make economical sanctions against China , if we all depend on Chinas trade (starting from electronics). It assumes a unity between USA and broadly speaking Western world, and I doubt that could be achieved (and what about Russia?). And considering nuclear threat, would not weakened China, after war with Taiwan, and becoming a "pariah" , be more willing/desperate to use its nuclear arsenal?
What you think?

Jarhead0331

We have to go to war over Taiwan. The entire world relies on their semiconductor microchip production. That cannot fall under Chinese control. It is a major strategic vulnerability.
Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


W8taminute

^Agreed.  I'm in the semiconductor business and feel the pain everyday of the shortages. 
"You and I are of a kind. In a different reality, I could have called you friend."

Romulan Commander to Kirk

Sir Slash

I don't know if we would go to war over Taiwan but we should. If we stood by and did nothing, Japan would be next on their list and the Japanese would have no choice but to go Nuclear to preserve their independence. That could lead to a truly catastrophic war that the West could not stay out of.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

Jarhead0331

I think China has a lot more to lose by going to war with the US, than the US has to lose by going to war with China.  The US currently owes China, what, the nominal amount of $1.1 Trillion dollars? if China goes to war with the US, the chances of them collecting will be substantially reduced.
Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


W8taminute

^True and I agree but look at the flip side of the coin. 

If I owed the bully on my playground milk money which I didn't have he would beat me to a pulp and take what ever he could from my pockets. 
"You and I are of a kind. In a different reality, I could have called you friend."

Romulan Commander to Kirk

Jarhead0331

Quote from: W8taminute on October 05, 2021, 11:58:44 AM
^True and I agree but look at the flip side of the coin. 

If I owed the bully on my playground milk money which I didn't have he would beat me to a pulp and take what ever he could from my pockets.

Global economics is much more complicated than playground hierarchies. If the US dollar crashes, the yuan will be right behind it.
Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


Toonces

I'm going to have to agree with the author on this one.  In my opinion, we are poorly positioned to fight a conventional war with China over Taiwan, and I think the losses would be absolutely shocking.  Consider the beating the UK took in the Falklands conflict, and that was with an arguably 3rd rate power.  China has far more capable weapons, and the US doesn't have the capacity to lose dozens of ships and a couple of carriers.  Also consider that after the inevitable attrition we would suffer in a war with China, would we still have the capacity to deter Russia?

"If you had a chance, right now, to go back in time and stop Hitler, wouldn't you do it?  I mean, I personally wouldn't stop him because I think he's awesome." - Eric Cartman

"Does a watch list mean you are being watched or is it a come on to Toonces?" - Biggs

Toonces

^ None of that is to imply that we don't have a moral obligation (or financial re: semiconductors) to defend Taiwan.  But realistically, I don't think it's feasible from a cost/benefit perspective.
"If you had a chance, right now, to go back in time and stop Hitler, wouldn't you do it?  I mean, I personally wouldn't stop him because I think he's awesome." - Eric Cartman

"Does a watch list mean you are being watched or is it a come on to Toonces?" - Biggs

Karri

Pretty unlikely that any war will happen. China is more likely to try and take Taiwan politically. First by showing military power, and then isolating the country via political manoeuvres, chiselling away until they get what they want. However, after Hong Kong no one is gonna trust anything China does.

GDS_Starfury

first and foremosa we wouldnt be going to war with china alone.  there would be some kind of ramp up to hostilities which would trigger all kinds of coming togethers on many levels.  I cant think of a single country it the region thats happy with china at the moment.  its also good to remember that we have no reason to invade china, we just have to not let them take territory from others and that simplifies a lot of things.
I read articles like the one posted all the time and I read a lot more that give a very different picture.  at the end of the day I dont lose sleep over a conflict with china.

and Slash, Japan cant go nuclear, they can only reveal a secret giant robot force that no one knew about.
Japan, a country that constitutionally cant operate aircraft carries so they call them anti-submarine destroyers.  :bd:
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Sir Slash

What do you think the Giant Robot Force runs on, Green Algae? It's got to be nukes. BFG Stands for, 'Big Fission Giant' after all. As I recall, Godzilla runs on nuclear as well.  :hide:  Japan's Constitution won't stand-up to a clear and present threat from China. If nuclear is the only way to preserve their independence, they'll jump on it in a hurry and they have the scientific ability to build it fast.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

W8taminute

Japan must sell all it's possessions to raise the cash to buy Godzilla.  Then it's game over.  LOL

I read that the UK, Australia, and the US formed an alliance recently to protect the Pacific region.  https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/auukus-national-security-defence-submarines-nuclear_uk_614263b7e4b01f79194cb179

"You and I are of a kind. In a different reality, I could have called you friend."

Romulan Commander to Kirk

Sir Slash

And forgot to tell our oldest ally in the world, France about it.  #:-)
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

Gusington

^Oh now you've done it...


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