Hard for NATO to Defend Baltic States

GDS_Starfury · May 20, 2014, 12:49:15 AM

Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 20, 2014, 12:14:32 AM
The issue of the thread is how hard is it to defend the baltics if Russia does something stupid

I think a lot would depend on how Norway, Sweden, Finland and Poland reacted to it. IMHO Poland is having an Israeli experience and has been for a while. beside the national pride they are determined to not let the bullshit of the WW2 and Warsaw Pact experience taint their lives again. the idea of Never Again is known to them. theyve got 230 or so Leopards right now. have fun with that Russia.

GDS_Starfury · May 20, 2014, 12:59:31 AM

I would also point out that the vast majority of weapons we use today were specifically designed to defend Europe from the Commie hordes coming west in overwhelming force. they were designed to kill them quickly and in great numbers.
well, we still have that edge and they no longer have those numbers.

MikeGER · May 20, 2014, 03:34:02 AM

...but now we have the cancer of overdone Political Correctness , Collateral Damage and even 1kt nukes are not an option, and the home front is as weak as it gets compared to WW2 (Allies side).
a tiny tiny skirmish today (Ukraine for example) where two or three enemy! soldiers got killed nowadays get reported to our homefront as the Fearsome Battle of city xxx ...including a homestory of the relatives of those killed enemy soldier including sobbing wife and confused toddler ... so the Peace Marcher crowd will have a field day, and are sooner in DC, Berlin and London streets than a Leo close to Königsberg can shift into first gear.... there will be talks, talks, talks, ... and it will end like Ukraine.

That the Polish preemptive defense strike across the border to help the small Baltic states with a flanking attack is possible, but if Putins send a secret diplomatic letter 'only the Baltic, Poland will be save, I guarantee!' ...Poland may be very reluctant and perfer to dig in on there own turf

In Germany the big left-green crowd will do sit-ins infront of the barracks (and worser stuff done by the agents, and 'activists') and block the logistic chains, NATO treaty or not...

Also sooner or later NATO may have to use small tactical nukes on the stagering areas and logistic chain and that is very risky business once this line get crossed.

Staggerwing · May 20, 2014, 06:23:31 AM

^There's always Fuel-Air explosives instead. Sounds much better in the papers than 'tactical nuke'.

Gusington · May 20, 2014, 07:56:16 AM

If Poland performed a pre-emptive strike on Russia to defend the Baltics I would eat my hat.

MikeGER · May 20, 2014, 08:05:43 AM

Gus, the 'preemptive' i meant was hours before Russia cross into the Baltic states , of course Russia would put a big task force on the Polish border cause of that possibility (flank securing force), but those divisons are bound in that way and are missing in other areas of the Baltic...

mirth · May 20, 2014, 08:10:57 AM

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 20, 2014, 12:39:36 AM
its all very fanboyish and fun to gloat but the foundation of the issue isnt about the battlefield. its about the political will to do whats in your countries best interest.

Again, this nails it. It's not a question of military capability in defending the Baltics. The capability is there. The will may be lacking.

All this agreeing with you is becoming awkward, Star.

Centurion40 · May 20, 2014, 08:19:37 AM

Is there any serious talk of establishing a "permanent" NATO base in Poland... maybe Lithuania? Neither country borders Russia, but would put NATO (specifically thinking American, British, and Canadian) air and ground forces closer to intervening against any Russian incursion into Estonia or Latvia.

Mr. Bigglesworth · May 20, 2014, 09:24:40 AM

Quote from: Staggerwing on May 20, 2014, 06:23:31 AM
^There's always Fuel-Air explosives instead. Sounds much better in the papers than 'tactical nuke'.

It's not the same, you need a pretty safe sky to fly a lumbering cargo plane over it.

Mr. Bigglesworth · May 20, 2014, 09:32:42 AM

Quote from: mirth on May 20, 2014, 08:10:57 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 20, 2014, 12:39:36 AM
its all very fanboyish and fun to gloat but the foundation of the issue isnt about the battlefield. its about the political will to do whats in your countries best interest.

Again, this nails it. It's not a question of military capability in defending the Baltics. The capability is there. The will may be lacking.

All this agreeing with you is becoming awkward, Star.

Political will changes when allies are being invaded. Peacenicks start getting personal pressure, as in a bloody nose, or a car on fire.

It really is almost inconcievable to me that Russia would try to take the Baltics. The risk to the country is way too high for the benefit. It will not happen. Ukraine, the Stans, rebuild for the future. That is how it will go if it progresses further.

Mr. Bigglesworth · May 20, 2014, 09:36:28 AM

One thing the Baltics better start doing is embrace European culture in a big way. Speaking, acting like Russian culture will be asking for trouble.

Ban vodka. That will keep the fuckers out.

Centurion40 · May 20, 2014, 09:43:30 AM

Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 20, 2014, 09:36:28 AM
One thing the Baltics better start doing is embrace European culture in a big way. Speaking, acting like Russian culture will be asking for trouble.

Ban vodka. That will keep the fuckers out.

Good call.

pawelj · May 21, 2014, 10:22:57 AM

Quote from: MikeGER on May 20, 2014, 03:34:02 AM

That the Polish preemptive defense strike across the border to help the small Baltic states with a flanking attack is possible, but if Putins send a secret diplomatic letter 'only the Baltic, Poland will be save, I guarantee!' ...Poland may be very reluctant and perfer to dig in on there own turf

In Germany the big left-green crowd will do sit-ins infront of the barracks (and worser stuff done by the agents, and 'activists') and block the logistic chains, NATO treaty or not...

Also sooner or later NATO may have to use small tactical nukes on the stagering areas and logistic chain and that is very risky business once this line get crossed.

Poland is now the most hawkish on the Ukraine and if the Russkies sent so much as a fucking dog across into the Baltic states it would be screaming for a military response. No quiet letter from Russia would have any effect as the history teaches never to believe in anything they say. We would hope that the Germans would finally grow a pair, now that they are finally on the side of the good guys.
Ultimately it is the US reaction that counts for the most.
Even if the Russians managed to overrun the Baltic's it would not be able to hold on to it for long and the final result would be the loss of Crimea, Kaliningrad, and all those areas in Georgia.
For now they will make trouble in Ukraine in order to consolidate Crimea. Nowhere does it say that they should succeed.

Mr. Bigglesworth · May 21, 2014, 10:29:51 AM

Considering not that long ago a Russian pilot flew most of the Polish Government into a mountain, they have to see Russian aggression in Ukraine as more fucking with neighboring states. No doubt they are hawkish.

pawelj · May 21, 2014, 10:31:27 AM

Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 20, 2014, 09:36:28 AM
One thing the Baltics better start doing is embrace European culture in a big way. Speaking, acting like Russian culture will be asking for trouble.

Ban vodka. That will keep the fuckers out.

They have embraced it in the big way already. Russian is no really spoken by locals apart from ethnic Russians. And why would you ban a Polish drink?