US Overture to Iran

[LongBlade]

With the US now on speaking terms with Iran, I woke up this morning thinking the Israelis were pretty quiet, and when that happens things usually get noisy shortly thereafter.

But by this evening we're hearing from them and it's not surprising.

Just days after the first conversation between the leaders of the U.S. and Iran in 34 years was hailed as a "breakthrough" in relations between the two countries, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is taking an unpopular message to the White House and the United Nations: Don't be fooled by Tehran's "sweet talk."

Netanyahu, who contends Iran is using conciliatory gestures as a smoke screen to conceal an unabated march toward a nuclear bomb, will meet with President Obama Monday to deliver strong words of caution to the U.S.

"I will tell the truth in the face of the sweet talk and the onslaught of smiles," Netanyahu said before boarding his flight to the U.S. on Sunday. "Telling the truth today is vital for the security and peace of the world and, of course, it is vital for the security of the state of Israel."

My question is, how long does Obama have to produce results? The talking heads on TV are now saying that Iran is within months of acquiring a nuke. I don't think any of us believes Israel will stand for that. So there are two questions. Whether the US gets on board with any action if these talks don't produce anything - and I'll go on record as saying they won't. And how long the dog and pony show can go on before we call BS.

Thoughts?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

If they really are months away the smoke screen is both ways. Better to catch them flat footed as the ordinance drops on the nuke sites.

[LongBlade]

If they really are months away the smoke screen is both ways. Better to catch them flat footed as the ordinance drops on the nuke sites.

I hope you're right.

Obama seems like he actually might be bright enough to recognize the Iranian nuke threat for what it is. If that's the case, I won't begrudge him for giving diplomacy one last chance before the fur starts to fly.

However, if he's stalling and intends to let Iran develop one? Well, I don't have words to describe that kind of stupidity.

[Airborne Rifles]

What concerns me is that an Israeli strike on he ran might be nuclear. They may be thinking that Iran's program is too well fortified for conventional strikes. 

[GDS_Starfury]

I dont think Israel will go with a nuclear option.  they have a lot of options to use before that.

[Centurion40]

I dont think Israel will go with a nuclear option.  they have a lot of options to use before that.

Yeah.

They know that if they go nuke first, no one will get their back.

That being said, they are between a rock and a hard place.  If Israel gets nuked first... well... shit, can they even afford to be nuked first??!!  The country's as big as a postage stamp! Maybe AR has a point!

[Airborne Rifles]

That's my concern. I worry that Netanyahu many view Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat to Israel and therefore a nuclear strike that alienates Israel from the world may be his only option.  Just a fear of mine.

[Centurion40]

I just did one of those online nuke blast simulators.  They could nuke Tel Aviv and not hit Jerusalem.  I didn't check the prevailing winds.

I'm assuming that they'd never nuke Jerusalem.  Not that they care about the lives of their co-religionists, I just don't think that they'd want to damage a holy place.

[LongBlade]

That's my concern. I worry that Netanyahu many view Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat to Israel and therefore a nuclear strike that alienates Israel from the world may be his only option.  Just a fear of mine.

Obama is the wild card here.

I want to believe he knows what he's doing. Past performance makes me doubt.

[Centurion40]

So long as he isn't surrounded by a cadre of yes-men (and women), then there is no need to worry.

[LongBlade]

So long as he isn't surrounded by a cadre of yes-men (and women), then there is no need to worry.

Seriously? That's his biggest problem. He thinks he's the smartest guy in the room.

[Centurion40]

So long as he isn't surrounded by a cadre of yes-men (and women), then there is no need to worry.

Seriously? That's his biggest problem. He thinks he's the smartest guy in the room.

Wouldn't the top bureaucrat (I mean the one who earned their job, not one the one who won a popularity contest and got elected/appointed) in the State Department be able to inject some stable balance?

[LongBlade]

Wouldn't the top bureaucrat (I mean the one who earned their job, not one the one who won a popularity contest and got elected/appointed) in the State Department be able to inject some stable balance?

I only know what I read. Bob Woodward's book claimed that Obama rarely listens to anyone. His words: he thinks he's the smartest guy in the room.

That's great for community organizing. Somewhat dubious when you're playing with Iranian nuke development.

The only think I hate more than being wrong about stuff like this is being right.

I hope I'm wrong. I really, really do.

[Keunert]

why would Iran nuke Israel? do you believe their bs talk? why would a cleric tyranny chose to destruct itself?

Even North Korea, which by my standards is way worse then Iran, never used their nuke.
the biggest use of their nuke is the political power it gives them. nobody fucks with them because of their nuke.
i can only imagine them using it if everything goes down the drain for them anyway.

Iran is not nearly as much a tyrant on their own poeple as NK. they are a regional power and if they would manage to normalize the international relations they could be a powerfull islamic country.

[LongBlade]

why would Iran nuke Israel? do you believe their bs talk? why would a cleric tyranny chose to destruct itself?

Do a search on 13th imam and Iran.

The simple answer is: why shouldn't we take them at their word? Why would they say something they didn't mean? We need only look back in history a few decades to find someone scapegoating Jews for their problems. That turned out not to be idle banter.