Russia's War Against Ukraine

[MengJiao]

The more pressing takeaways in my view pertain to the losses the Ukrainian military is sustaining to hold onto Bahkmut and its potential to collapse

I mentioned last week that Bahkmut is going to fall.  Im of the opinion that they held it to long.

 Maybe they are not holding it for too long.  After all, even if you are going to fall back eventually (and I suspect the Ukrainians are going do some major retreats in the next few months to conserve their forces) -- anyway, even if you are planning on retreating, there's no point in doing it too soon, especially when you have some good positions and your enemy is obliging by attacking where you are well prepared in good positions.

That isn't the problem so much as the enemy pushing to flank and cut off their position.

On the other hand, if the defenders in Bakhmut are strategic bait, then they could be luring the Russians into cutting them off so that the Russians can be hit in the sides and back by counter-siegers.

I doubt they are bait.  From the Ukrainian point of view, they have to manage the trade-offs of time and space and the strength of their forces against an unknown amount of Russian pressure over an unknown amount of time.  They only have so many places to defend and only so many forces to risk.  There may be no dramatic solutions for either side so you have to defend as long as you can when you get the chance.  It's not pretty, but do they have any other choices?  Not really.  If they win it will be only because the Russians really have nothing to gain from running the war forever and the Ukrainians have everything to lose by not running the war forever.

[JasonPratt]

True, although I recall seeing (since posting) a report from 3 days ago where Ukraine did use Bakhmut as bait to lure some Russian forces into a hot and deadly counter-flank.

(Hot and Deadly Counterflank will also be my stripper name if I ever decide I need the extra money that badly.  )

[Crossroads]

UK Ministry of Defence, suggesting the great Russian winter offensive? We're looking at it. Estonian intelligence was suggesting the same already a couple of weeks ago.

Appalling losses, battalion of men, company of tanks, for several days running, again. Per Ukrainian sources, of course, but they've been consistent.

Sheer madness.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1622843727298404353

[Crossroads]

Another opinion suggesting the large offensive is about capturing Donbas, and it is commencing. UA might for now be content to cause the invaders massive casualties, but might not want to wait too long for their own offensives.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1622602875338629120.html

[ArizonaTank]

Ukrainians claim yesterday was the deadliest day of the war for the Russians.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-says-russians-endure-deadliest-day-so-far-as-fighting-intensifies-in-east/ar-AA17d97j?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=14afaf0d157c4463abad3adb76c976ed

[Sir Slash]

I am hoping all this combat is Ukraine sucking the Russkies into throwing away lots of men in order to exhaust themselves prior to a grand offensive when the weather improves. But I wonder how badly the opposite is happening, the Ukrainians cannot afford to trade man-for-man with the enemy. Or even close to it.

However, the Russians haven't actually gained that much ground for the men lost if the reports are accurate. If all they get is Bakmut for a whole Winter of fighting then I'd say that's a strategic victory for the Ukes.

[GDS_Starfury]

I laugh every time the russians use the term "elite".

[GDS_Starfury]

Germany approves the transfer of 178 Leo1s  to the Ukraine and Switzerland is considering ending its export bans on military hardware.

[GDS_Starfury]

russians are fucking stupid!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1623066375366275084

[GDS_Starfury]

good bit here about 155mm shell production.

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023/02/06/the-us-effort-to-arm-ukraine-starts-in-scranton-pennsylvania/

[Gusington]

That post above with the exploding drone was Warner Brothers quality.

[GDS_Starfury]

I shit you not, Windy was msg me from Utah after he saw some A-10s playing overhead.  I told him not to fuck with any colored globes or cylinders he sees for exactly this reason.

[Gusington]

Let's see if he listens.

[JasonPratt]

Hm, we used to have a strong munitions factory about 30 minutes south-southeast of where I'm sitting -- targeted by a Russian nuke, of course (probably still is), which gave us some wry chuckles growing up in the Cold War. Don't look off in that direction very often, don't want to see the flash or that's the last thing you'll see!

I should ask around some locals, see if they're gearing up to production again.

[Sir Slash]

I think the Russian with the stick was more Marx Brothers than Warner Bros. I can see why they didn't trust him with a rifle.