Interesting week for voting around the world

[Uberhaus]

It has and will continue to be an interesting week for voting around the world and the implications for conflict.

First of all, the UK Conservatives have suffered a massive defeat to the Labour Party.  The new PM, Sir Keir Starmer travelled to Ukraine last year as opposition leader to meet Zelensky.  https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-64668096

"Should there be an election next year and a change of government, the position on Ukraine will remain the same," he said while visiting Irpin, outside Kyiv.

While the UK's support of Ukraine will remain steadfast, voting this Sunday in France could jeopardize France's support for Ukraine, with the defeat of President Macron's alliance and the possible election of Marine Le Pen's Rassamblement National.  In the initial round of voting, Le Pen's party had 37 candidates elected, receiving over 50% of the vote and aims for a majority in the second round, where candidates with less than 12.5% of votes in the first round were eliminated.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx82n333ze7o  However, candidates are strategically withdrawing to allow other candidates that can block a RN victory.  If the RN forms a majority things will get very interesting for France constitutionally.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg3m98j3zpyo

If the RN wins an absolute majority on Sunday, Bardella would be asked by President Macron to form a government – and there would then begin a tense period of "cohabitation" between two political enemies.
Under the French Fifth Republic constitution, power would flow away from Macron to the prime minister's office because "the government determines and conducts the policy of the nation".
However Mr Macron would probably seek to retain powers in the areas of foreign policy and defence, which from precedent – and not from the actual wording of the constitution – have remained the preserve of the Elysée in past cohabitations.
Marine Le Pen also accused the president Tuesday of carrying out an "administrative coup d'état" because she had heard he was preparing a number of key appointments in the police and army just days ahead of the vote.
"When you want to counter the results if an election by nominating your people to jobs, and when that stops [the government] from being able to carry out policies which the French people have asked for .... I call that an administrative coup d'état," she said.

[Uberhaus]

While the snap elections in UK and France have gone badly for the standing leaders, the election in Iran to replace the deceased President has surprisingly elected a reformist leader.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o

Even before the final results were declared by Iran's interior ministry, Dr Pezeshkian's supporters had taken to the streets in Tehran and a number of other cities to celebrate.
Videos posted on social media showed mostly young people dancing and waving the signature green flag of his campaign, while passing cars sounded their horns.
Dr Pezeshkian, a 71-year-old heart surgeon and member of the Iranian parliament, is critical of Iran's notorious morality police and caused a stir after promising "unity and cohesion", as well as an end to Iran's "isolation" from the world.
He has also called for "constructive negotiations" with Western powers over a renewal of the faltering 2015 nuclear deal in which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear programme in return for an easing of Western sanctions.
His rival, Saeed Jalili, favours the status quo. The former nuclear negotiator enjoys strong support amongst Iran's most religious communities.
Mr Jalili is known for his hardline anti-Western stance and opposition to restoring the nuclear deal, which he says crossed Iran's "red lines".

However, the true power in Iran is with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, being head of state and C-in-C of all armed forces.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57260831  ISW even states that:  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-4-2024 

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must decide whether he will permit Pezeshkian to win the election if Pezeshkian wins the most votes. Khamenei recently expressed foreign and nuclear policy views on June 25 that closely align with Jalili's views, suggesting that Khamenei endorses Jalili.[6] Khamenei furthermore indirectly criticized Pezeshkian's campaign policies on the same date.[7] Khamenei's opposition to some of Pezeshkian's policies could lead him to directly intervene in the upcoming election and install Jalili as president.

If Khamenei were to interfere with the election by deposing Dr. Pezeshkian, it would surely result in more unrest in Iran.

[JudgeDredd]

Whoops - no politics.

Sorry

[Jarhead0331]

I'm going to leave this open for now. OK to discuss the elections and their potential ramifications on current and future military operations and conflicts. The posts by Uberhaus are a shinning example of how to do this. Hats off to you, sir. 

With that being said, certainly leave political concerns out of the discussion (ie. no left vs. right, etc.)

Thanks. 

[Redwolf]

RN did not win the absolute majority, but the leftish coalition didn't either. So I guess the status quo stays, but with less stability.

Can't blame the British for wanting something else. Regardless of whether the Tories are actively responsible, the country is in bad shape and a reaction was predictable.

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah.  It seems like the UK has been in a state of distress/decline for a while now.

There seems to be an interesting pattern in European politics where, when far right-wing groups start to approach a majority, voters and leaders in other parties band together to keep them from gaining much control.  Italy is the primary exception so far, but to my limited knowledge, the policies there haven't shifted as radically as some had feared after Meloni's rise to power. 

I have a suspicion that democracies WITH ranked-choice voting and multiple parties have a little more flexibility/adaptability than the American winner-takes-all/only-two-viable-parties system.  But that's probably flirting with politics, so I'll leave it be.

I suspect all this fractious domestic politics is likely to result in a status quo situation as relates to military support for Ukraine, but with even less likelihood for decisive changes in support than we had previously. 

[al_infierno]

Can we make predictions on which candidate will win and which will die 3 days after losing?  Or is that too political, even if there's no opinions about one or the other included?

a shinning example of how to do this.

[Gusington]

^Too soon.

[Uberhaus]

I'm going to leave this open for now. OK to discuss the elections and their potential ramifications on current and future military operations and conflicts. The posts by Uberhaus are a shinning example of how to do this. Hats off to you, sir. 

With that being said, certainly leave political concerns out of the discussion (ie. no left vs. right, etc.)

Thanks. 

Not a timely thank you, but I am very appreciative.

If Venezuela has a free and fair election today, Maduro will be removed.  However, that isn't likely to happen promising everything including "a bloodbath" to stay in power. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1we220ew71o

Following his re-election in 2018, which was widely dismissed as neither free not fair, he thwarted an attempt by opposition leader Juan Guaidó to depose him by declaring himself the rightful president.
While Mr Guaidó was backed by more than 50 countries, including the US and the EU, Mr Maduro could count on the loyalty of Venezuelan security forces.
In the end, Mr Guaidó's parallel government withered, with Mr Maduro using it to portray himself as the "defender of Venezuelan sovereignty", a point he drove home at his closing rally.
....
But despite this fighting talk, many Maduro critics feel that this election - the first in over a decade in which most of the opposition has united behind one candidate and is not boycotting the poll - could be their best shot at removing him from office.
They have overcome many hurdles on the way to the polls, not least the fact that their chosen candidate, María Corina Machado, was banned from running for office.
Those who want to see a change of government have united behind her replacement, 74-year-old Edmundo González, in record time.

As to France, we'll see what happens after the Olympics and as to Iran, the new President will be greatly limited by his subordination to the Ayatollah.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn05x9lw3zwo 

So when Mr Pezeshkian talks about a different foreign policy with a friendlier approach to the West, the chance of changes in Iran's activities in countries such as Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen are slim.

He would have a large role in replacing the 85 year old Ayatolloh should it come to pass.

[Uberhaus]

a shinning example of how to do this.

Yes, I do have the shinning.  So much for my self-effacement.