Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Jarhead0331]

This will have to suffice.

[JasonPratt]

Luka: "I SHALL BREAK YOU!"

Ukraine: {side-eyes him while kicking ass}

Luka: .......{shakes magic 8-ball}..... "Just kidding! I never intend to do anything! -- I mean intended!"

https://x.com/Liveuamap/status/1829084264056410310

Ukraine: {continues the ass-kicking}

NATO: {approaches}

Luka, tomorrow probably: ......{shakes magic 8-ball}..... "What does 'Dio Meme' mean?" {aide whispers} "ah. ahem. Ah! So you are approaching me?"

(This meme only works in Japanese, thus the subtitles. The English dub is good but completely jettisons the taunt.)
(Also, Dio is a vampire.)

[Jarhead0331]

Ukraine lost an F-16...and sadly, the pilot too.

[JasonPratt]

Sadness. 

Also noted: Russia is still pushing toward Pokrovsk. Getting closer, too.

Unclear yet (due to opsec) how the eastward push by Ukraine toward Belgorod (north of Kharkiv) is going, but might have stalled out already.

[Tripoli]

Ukraine lost an F-16...and sadly, the pilot too.

From what I heard, the F-16 loss may be from a Blue v. Blue (Patriot missile v. F-16) incident.  https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-f16-crash-2755b4fd1a5dcf1e95ae975d44427b9b

Ward Carrol just posted on it.  I haven't watched it yet, but he generally gives good info:
https://youtu.be/NXKaB3POf18

[Tripoli]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/zelenskyy-removes-top-ukrainian-air-force-leader-after-deadly-f-16-crash-5715850?src_src=RTNews&src_cmp=rtbreaking-2024-08-30-6&est=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAcvYuYxYAxsnazLIBsitaBLnhy1OIIaRaw8FzbQGF7Sso

According to the Epoch Times, Zelenskyy just dismissed Lt. Gen. Mykola Mykolayovych Oleschuk from his post as the commander of Ukraine's Air Force.  That may indicate there was a friendly fire regarding the loss of the F-16 or some other issue that goes beyond a mere accident.

[JasonPratt]

^^ I came here to post that link, too.

Lt Gen Oleschuk (now relieved) was pretty salty about the suggestion.

"{Parliament Member} Maryana, the time will come when you will apologize to the entire army for what you have done, I hope in court!" Oleschuck wrote.

"Once again, you not only poured dirt on me personally and on the Air Force, you discredited the manufacturers of American weapons—the main ally of Ukraine—the USA! You have again become the main newsmaker of enemy propaganda and are breaking all records on Russian television! All of Russia applauds you!" he added.

Well okay then! -- but that still leaves over what happened to Ace Mes, which has required a lot of investigation apparently, and which the Pres thought you should be relieved over for not caring enough for your pilots, so... 

[JasonPratt]

Me this morning:

Unclear yet (due to opsec) how the eastward push by Ukraine toward Belgorod (north of Kharkiv) is going, but might have stalled out already.

Russian commander soon afterward, gets bored apparently waiting for Ukraine to arrive, drops 120mm rockets into Belgorod, evidently aiming for a power node.

5 citizens known dead so far. 

Worth remembering that Russia has also somewhat accidentally (??) dropped over 100 large aircraft bombs on Belgorod since they started their offensive toward Kharkiv. (Which also got shelled again today with some casualties.)

[Jarhead0331]

Dear, oh dear...as reported above.

[JasonPratt]

An interesting argument about what would be necessary for Russia's (and anyone's) nuclear arsenal to continue working at all. By William Spaniel, posted 6 hours ago.

The short version: the compressing explosives need to have been replaced (at least on their triggers, assuming their form wouldn't decay) at least twice since the fall of the Soviet Union (not counting before then).

The fusion core for thermonuclear weapons (virtually everything nowadays, i.e. not simple fission weapons like against Japan), need to have been replaced at least three times since the fall of the USSR. That would cost about $100K (in today's US currency) per weapon, per cycle. That doesn't count all the other parts that need servicing and replacement to get the things to function at all. (Though to be fair a fusion bomb can still function as a fission bomb. Tom Clancy ran this scenario fictionally in The Sum of All Fears, where the failure came from the imperfect compression explosion. The video doesn't note this, I just recall it as an example.  )

There is probably a vast shortage of nuclear-capable technicians to do any maintenance, much moreso to operate the weapons. Russia hasn't even tested a bomb (per treaty presumably) since 1990, so however many competent operators still exist have either no operational experience or not in thirty-four years.

It is of course possible to make new tritium in their nuclear reactors, and Russia does have (apparently) enough current tech capability to run the reactors. The question is whether they actually HAVE cycled the fusion cores (etc.) Similarly, they could sacrifice cores to combine material for new cores, but the question is whether they really are doing that.

More details in the video.

[al_infierno]

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-disrupts-covert-russian-government-sponsored-foreign-malign-influence

[JasonPratt]

President Luka: "Klytus I'm BORRRRed. What plaything can you offer me today?"

Klytus: {hands Luka the magic 8-ball}

Magic 8-ball: "Russian drone skeet"

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1831471374608801818

Klytus: "The inhabitants call it... mirth."

Luka: {chuckles}

Klytus: "Most effective your majesty!"

Luka: "I like to play with things a while! ...before annihilation. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA"

Hat-tip to the Enforcer for the link. Evidently a LOT of people filmed Russian Shahed drones being noped out of the sky by Belorussian air defenses the night before last, but that was the sample he provided last night.

Full report show last night:

Event map for the show, burgandyish color markings for latest news:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?entry=yt&mid=1_ovQitgTGiy0Ds8T35QzskbfRmrVEUY&ll=52.244882614100504%2C31.472145573893123&z=10

Intro joke reference source that I really kind of need to watch again now, haven't seen it in a few years... 

[JasonPratt]

Aside from the question of whether Luka has decided to piss Putin completely off, and what that may imply (which seems to have happened already last week, but only by report no video confirmation) -- the biggest news from yesterday was that Russia's massive push toward Pokrovsk from Donetsk has finally stalled out, at least temporarily. I'm unclear yet whether Russia pulled back any troops from Crimea to help the push. Maybe the ISW will have something more on that.

Update: earlier today Ukraine officially announced the Russian Pok offensive was shut down for 4 days.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, remember when Ukraine attached an AK to a drone the other day, to see what they could do with it?

Well here it is!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1f9304l/ukrainian_fpv_drone_with_ak_rifle_attached/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

It's a heck of a platform! Basically a small attack copter now.

[ArizonaTank]

....
It's a heck of a platform! Basically a small attack copter now.

I've also read that the Ukrainians are working on making drones autonomous...not necessarily the AK drone per se...but in general. Mostly as a way to avoid jamming.

In a related note...the game "Terminator: Resistance" is on sale on Steam for 75% off. Running around avoiding AI terminators has to be good practice...;)