Nork Nukes Nearing Nuisance?

[Gusington]

^They already are more than self defense forces in all but name.

[BanzaiCat]

Looks like the North Koreans launched a missile that went over Japan.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/28/japanese-government-warns-north-korea-missile-headed-toward-northern-japan-report-says.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/28/north-korea-fires-missile-japan

Seriously, do these fuckers WANT to die? Because that's how you die.

[mirth]

I'm thinking the Japanese aren't too keen about being threatened with a nuke attack.

[Gusington]

There are people still alive there that remember what it was like last time, too.

[mirth]

^exactly

[Sir Slash]

I hope they wake-up Godzilla and he makes Little Kim something to be scrapped off the bottom of his Godzilla-Foot. Either one, I don't care.  :clap:

[JasonPratt]

First to be atomic punchflamed: Yongary.

[Boggit]

So, what do we take away from all this?

1. Kim Jung Un is not at all fazed by American counter threats over Guam;
2. China and Russia don't seem effective at shutting down NK missile tests;
3. NK missiles are getting ever closer to the USA, even if incrementally so;
4. No one wants a war with NK, but it seems Kim Jung Un is not bothered about one either as everyone else is backing down;
5. It all seems a little bit like the policy of appeasement with Hitler... NK will carry on until either a missile hits the USA, or until a clear line is crossed;
6. Unfortunately no clear red line has been issued to NK, so Kim Jung Un will keep probing US resolve until - or if - a red line is clearly set out;
7. If a clear red line is set out signalling that NK aggression has created a state of war with the USA and its allies, then it is prudent to prevent escalation to have Russia and China on board with any such ultimatum;
8. That might be a problem unless a post NK defeat situation is worked out in advance with Russia and China to protect their interests in the region so as not to escalate hostilities beyond NK;
9. Even if China and Russia get on board with a mutually agreed red line, I'd expect any war with NK to be bloody on both sides, which begs the question whether the USA and its allies have the stomach to fight a bloody high intensity war when there will have been nothing like it since Vietnam in terms of anticipated casualties - and possibly more than Vietnam too;
10. Assuming NK cross an agreed red line, and the US and its allies do have the appetite for war, how will it leave the US and its allies afterwards viz the blocs of China and Russia? Is there the possibility that if things don't go the USA's way that China and Russia might intervene directly or indirectly with NK?

[BanzaiCat]

Technically, a state of war still exists with North Korea.

[MikeGER]

China, Russia and USA have to negotiate in secret diplomacy the state of North Korea or better a reunited Korea after a quick and dirty (and possible short hot kinetic) regime change.

a possible solution with China would include that a later 'United Korea' has almost non US troops garrison any more and those few advisors who remain are all in the South, plus large demilitarized zone at the Chinese border.
Also all three big players have to solve those water territory (resources) issues in the NK area first too.
And they have to talk about share of trade benefits with a future "United Korea" a lot

[bayonetbrant]

a possible solution with China would include that a later 'United Korea' has almost non US troops garrison any more and those few advisors who remain are all in the South, plus large demilitarized zone at the Chinese border.

The Russians will kill that dead by pointing out that NATO promised not to expand eastward after 1992, and yet here we are, with half of the Warsaw Pact, and former SSRs all in NATO and bordering on Russia itself these days.  They'll say there's no way the US keeps these promises, and on balance, they're not wrong...

[Boggit]

a possible solution with China would include that a later 'United Korea' has almost non US troops garrison any more and those few advisors who remain are all in the South, plus large demilitarized zone at the Chinese border.

The Russians will kill that dead by pointing out that NATO promised not to expand eastward after 1992, and yet here we are, with half of the Warsaw Pact, and former SSRs all in NATO and bordering on Russia itself these days.  They'll say there's no way the US keeps these promises, and on balance, they're not wrong...

It's a very fair point you make.

It still leaves the conundrum that Kim Jung Un represents a potential existential threat to the USA and to others, which will have to be confronted sooner or later if diplomacy fails. It is a matter of time before the NK missile program becomes a serious threat, and they are making incremental progress as witnessed by their latest test over Japan.

It will be apparent to Russia that the present situation is totally different to former Soviet "republics" joining NATO, and is not helped by NK applying more fuel on the fire by saying they will continue to launch missiles across the Pacific following the infringement of Japanese territory.

I suspect that Russia would rather have some involvement over the future of NK even if they don't like the way things have gone in the past, or are heading in the future. If the Russians allow the USA to act unilaterally to defend itself by a pre-emptive war without any involvement in finalising the end game for NK doesn't that create a worse, or at the very least an uncertain outcome for them?

[JasonPratt]

I'm trying to figure out the minimum punch that might become necessary. Is it regime change, by removing the regime? Also need to remove current ways for the regime to hit SK without defense (i.e. smite all the artillery on the border).

[Boggit]

I'm trying to figure out the minimum punch that might become necessary. Is it regime change, by removing the regime? Also need to remove current ways for the regime to hit SK without defense (i.e. smite all the artillery on the border).

You need to be pretty damn sure that eliminating Kim Hung Un is not just cutting off one head from the Hydra. However, who can you think of who has survived with sufficient profile to be a contender as a replacement for KJU? I can't think of anyone either that hasn't already been sent to the ranges for anti-aircraft artillery firing practice. Regime change is too simplistic a solution anyway because of the power balance, and potential power vacuum on both Russia and China's borders. That is why it is ideal to bring them to discussion on what constitutes the end game result following any armed conflict that is necessary to remove NK as a nuclear threat to world, and more specifically - since you guys are in KJU's sights - peace in the USA.

As to SK, the best hope for their civilians is to flee south as in Korean War round 1. Unless you can paste NK in time with enough MOAB's they are going to get pulverised by NK artillery, and I don't expect KJU to make any distinction between SK or the USA, irrespective of the fact that it will likely be the USA to clobber him first, as he's in a good position to vent his spleen on Seoul before his guns get taken out. Given the proximity to China and Russia, and even if you ignore the very legitimate concerns of SK and Japan I think a nuclear strike by the US is extremely unlikely because of the present uncertainty as to how either China or Russia will respond. Even without nukes they are going to pontificate and hope KJU backs down as neither of them will want a failed state on their doorstep. So with that in mind, I think they will eventually have to face reality and engage diplomatically with the US,  rather than get an outcome that they cannot influence, and find completely antagonistic - e.g a United Korea with its capital in Seoul, and backed by the USA...

[OJsDad]

The Norks are claiming to have exploded a hydrogen bomb.