Hypothetical Chinese Naval Attack

Started by MengJiao, April 03, 2022, 07:24:20 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

MengJiao

  I've been wondering about current missiles and Chinese technology (especially after South China Sea and Next War: Vietnam) which seemed to assume
missiles and missile defenses worked well and predictably.  Things in Harpoon V are not just not quite that simple, but Harpoon V has new mechanics to
parameterize missile attacks in a comprehensive way with a lot of variables and phases that bring out things that were glossed over in earlier versions of
Harpoon.  Things can go in odd directions very fast in Harpoon V.  In one run of Chinese modified Soverrmy DDs versus Vietnamese/Russian Soverrmy DDs and a Riga
  encountering each other at 30 miles in very bad weather (lots of clutter and jamming and some passive targetting and not much time to shoot), of 12 missiles fired
(all various versions of the Saccade antiship missile) only one hit and it hit the one ship nobody was aiming at.  That was an extreme case but it seems like
not only do missiles do strange things, but they do them pretty often.  Still, they do get hits usually and those hits tend to be devastating.

Anyway, with that in mind, here the Vietnamese line up an ambush with their Russian-built DDs gainst some Chinese amphibious transports with some escorts.
The Chinese are distracted by a Vietnamese helicopter and haven't spotted the Vietnamese DDs on the other side of a dense rain squal:




MengJiao

Quote from: MengJiao on April 03, 2022, 07:24:20 PM

Anyway, with that in mind, here the Vietnamese line up an ambush with their Russian-built DDs gainst some Chinese amphibious transports with some escorts.
The Chinese are distracted by a Vietnamese helicopter and haven't spotted the Vietnamese DDs on the other side of a dense rain squal:

  Nine minutes into the action, the Chinese have gone active with 2 ships and a helicopter, gotten some firing solutions and shot off 2 groups of 4 Saccade subsonic antiship missiles.  One set
of missiles comes to its seeker-on waypoint and acquires the right target (blue arrow).  The other reaches its waypoint, snaps on its seekers and sees nothing (red arrow).  The Vietnamese will launch some
bigger missiles (supersonic Moskits) next turn if they get through the Saccade attack (either intercepting them with missiles or gunfire or not being hit or not massively damaged):


MengJiao

#2
Quote from: MengJiao on April 04, 2022, 11:32:52 AM

  Nine minutes into the action, the Chinese have gone active with 2 ships and a helicopter, gotten some firing solutions and shot off 2 groups of 4 Saccade subsonic antiship missiles.  One set
of missiles comes to its seeker-on waypoint and acquires the right target (blue arrow).  The other reaches its waypoint, snaps on its seekers and sees nothing (red arrow).  The Vietnamese will launch some
bigger missiles (supersonic Moskits) next turn if they get through the Saccade attack (either intercepting them with missiles or gunfire or not being hit or not massively damaged):

  All 4 Saccades got thorough.  Even at only about 560 miles an hour, the impact of 4 anti-ship missiles on a destroyer is more than enough to obliterate the ship.  So, one
Vietnamese DD down (red arrow)...the other destroyer launches 4 supersonic Moskits (blue arrow) at the leading Chinese frigate.  These all acquire the target.
  As added techno-thriller drama, I named two characters in this action -- let's see Commander Ngok Huong (Jade Emperor) was happy to see his
missiles  leave his vessel.  As a boy he remembered things bouncing off a garden wall in Cheiw Bai...etc. with lots of
mental psychology...on the other hand Commander Ka Ong (whale god or Kong) was not so happy to see 4 Moskits emerge from the dense
rain squal at 1700 miles an hour heading straight for his ship.  Ironically as a child he too had seen the gardens of Chiew Biai.  Not much time for
psychological mental drama, but you get the picture.

  One out of 4 Moskit/Sunburn hypersonic missiles gets through the Chinese close-in weapon system on Kong's Kangding, and that's enough to effectively knock the frigate
out of the battle (over 50% damage, fire criticals, no weapons working and speed down to 13 knots).  Still, it is interesting that at close range in bad weather,
subsonic missiles (like various versions of the Saccade) can be just as dangerous as bigger, hypersonic missiles like the Sunburn.  The battle is still on, but the Vietnamese
are down to one destroyer and one helicopter while the Chinese (though withdrawing to defend the amphibious ships) still have three frigates.

Things get slightly weird as both sides try to edge away.  Ngok Huong goes to passive radar (using the radar receiver to target emissions), but the closest Chinese frigate is doing the same thing
so the only target anyone get a firing solution on is a fairly distant Chinese frigate.  So about 21 minutes into the battle, the Vietnamese should have a firing solution and maybe the Chinese will shoot something as well around that time.   


MengJiao

#3
Quote from: MengJiao on April 05, 2022, 07:16:14 AM


Things get slightly weird as both sides try to edge away.  Ngok Huong goes to passive radar (using the radar receiver to target emissions), but the closest Chinese frigate is doing the same thing
so the only target anyone get a firing solution on is a fairly distant Chinese frigate.  So about 21 minutes into the battle, the Vietnamese should have a firing solution and maybe the Chinese will shoot something as well around that time.

  Ngok Huong gets his destroyer through the rain squal and goes active with his radars in case there are any missiles or helicopters around.  What he finds on the other side of the squal is
disturbing:  he has a passively-derived firing solution on a distant ship (blue arrow), but there is a somewhat closer frigate that had not been spotted before (red arrow)
(in the event, Ngok Huong fired and destroyed the original target and then escaped...the battle ended with one Vietnamese DD destroyed and 1 Chinese Frigate destroyed and one
badly damaged...  Missile-wise -- out of 16 fired, 7 hit their targets which is pretty much the usual rate -- on average in medium-range battles between medium and small ships about
half the antiship missiles hit their targets-- which is about the rate of Exoset hits in the Falklands (3 hits for 7 launches, 5 air-launched and 2 land-launched hits on Sheffield, Atlantic Conveyor and Glamorgan)...games like South China Sea and CMANO suggest that the rate isn't that high in more modern engagements with more sophisticated defenses
which might be true,but it doesn't take many hits with antiship missiles to do a lot of damage):