Russia's War Against Ukraine

Started by ArizonaTank, November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM

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Crossroads

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on December 03, 2022, 05:27:24 PM
Crossroads, in the Carroll interview of the British analyst mentioned a few pages upthread, the Brit also observed that, in the airspace over Ukraine, expensive military-grade drones don't seem to last that much longer than lower-cost civilian ones that are weaponized.  The Brit specifically observed that American UAVs, like the Predator, were built for low-intensity conflict, where they pack considerable firepower and can loiter over targets for extended periods of time.

In a high-intensity conflict like Ukraine, he suggests that it's looking like low-cost and one-shot drones (e.g., the US "Switchblade") that can arrive in great quantity and be easily replaced are likely to be much more cost-efficient.  He stated that we now know that all the footage of the Turkish Bayraktar drones we were seeing released by Ukrainian media for months on end was all footage taken over the first week of their deployment and then dribbled out as misinformation.  The Bayraktars were effective, he said, but only for one or two weeks before the Russians adjusted their AA doctrine.

Yes, that would seem the consensus so far. The report mentioned this as well that TB-2s were most effective in the first phase of war, when Russian columns were not that well organised and were ordered to advance with expectation for little or no resistance. That's when UAF also had their most successful CAS missions.

From page 57 there's also other interesting observations. TB-2s were most effective as maritime patrolling assets, while recon and fire observation drones would benefit from loitering munitions to counter any radar or EW assets their presence lights up.

On another note, found out there's a video from the authors as well: https://twitter.com/RUSI_org/status/1597983805972705281
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GDS_Starfury

Two police officers looking at a fragment pile of Russian rockets that hit Ukraine's second largest city.

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

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GDS_Starfury

#5433
Quote from: fran on December 04, 2022, 01:59:17 AM
What is the context of this photo?

UAF infantry outside, and still holding, Bakhmut.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

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MengJiao

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 04, 2022, 06:36:45 AM
Two police officers looking at a fragment pile of Russian rockets that hit Ukraine's second largest city.


  The level of mind-boggling Russian craziness there is well....mind-boggling.  Let me just add, as usual, I don't understand what on earth went wrong with the Russians.  Shooting a
gazillion crappy missiles at a city is just loony no matter how you look at it.

Gusington



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FarAway Sooner

Not really.  Bakhmut is more like the new Stalingrad, but it's unclear who's winning.  It's the city on the northern side of the Eastern front where the Russians have been pressing attacks for the last few months, probably as a spoiling attack on other moves the Ukrainian army might want to make in the East.  There have been a few reports that the Russians might be winning, but the photo that Star posted shows a squad of Ukrainian soldiers posing happily in front of Bakhmut.

With any video or photographic media that are posted on line, I have no idea if anybody can tell whether they are current or as old as the footage of all those successful drone attacks.

MengJiao

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on December 04, 2022, 12:34:42 PM
Not really.  Bakhmut is more like the new Stalingrad, but it's unclear who's winning.  It's the city on the northern side of the Eastern front where the Russians have been pressing attacks for the last few months, probably as a spoiling attack on other moves the Ukrainian army might want to make in the East.  There have been a few reports that the Russians might be winning, but the photo that Star posted shows a squad of Ukrainian soldiers posing happily in front of Bakhmut.

With any video or photographic media that are posted on line, I have no idea if anybody can tell whether they are current or as old as the footage of all those successful drone attacks.

  Its a strange situation on that middle section of the war:  rumors that the Russians are withdrawing on the western side (perhaps to avoid getting trapped against the Dnepr?  Or to trap the Ukrainians into getting trapped against the Dnepr?) while not far from there the Russians have been throwing attacks at Bakhmut for months.  I can't imagine what either side is doing in that area except that it seems kind of dangerous since a Ukrainian thrust to Melitpol would cut off the Crimea and a Russian effort to cut off such a thrust could give them a big win.

GDS_Starfury

Bakhmut is a wagner sector of the front line.  it would seem that all theyre doing is throwing men into a meat grinder with no thought given to maneuver or tactics.  its basically where russian is sending its prision population to die.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Jarhead0331

Reminds me of Hitler's obsession with taking Stalingrad. Limited strategic value, but it has become a major political objective.
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FarAway Sooner

One of the many odd things about the Russian front is that entirely separate armies occupy different sectors.  Not just like "7th Army controls this sector and 12th Army controls that sector", but like, "Wagner Group runs this part of the front, pro-Russian Ukrainian units run this other part of the front, Russian reserve units run this third part of the front, Russian regular military runs the south, but you see other groups mixed in at different places as the need arises."

Wagner Group is trying to turn Bakhmut into a meat grinder.  There's no doubt that they're succeeding with grinding up their own meat.  Casualty reports for the Ukrainians are much less clear but apparently not as light as was originally hoped.

JasonPratt

I recall seeing a headline last week above a week-summary posted by a major paper or mag (Newsweek or something), which said the Russians are giving up organizing their troops into BTGs -- but scrolling down through the summary didn't provide any information about the headline. Anyone else see something like that? (Was it posted upthread and I've just forgotten?)
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FarAway Sooner

I've not seen it.  But it does seem that the BTG works better as a hard-hitting, fast-moving force intended to bulldoze underarmed opposition in low-intensity conflicts. 

I did run across this article which I thought was interesting.  It's a bit short on specifics (Politico isn't among my favorite sites for sure), but it's one of the first times I've seen any kind of mainstream media source tackle the issue of what our current military-industrial complex can learn from the war in Ukraine.  Among other things, while we seem to do an okay job at building the weapons systems that everybody wants, we really lack the ability to ramp up production of even simple stuff in a hurry.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/04/pentagon-industry-struggle-to-arm-ukraine-00072125

I get why you can't just spin up another assembly line for F-35s or ATACMS (I know, we aren't making any more ATACMS ever), but it's a little more surprising to me that it's going to take us 2 years to double the number of 155mm howitzer shells we manufacture.  I'm not sure if there are lessons to be learned in terms of how we calibrate our force mix, how we handle our contracting process, and how we propose to arm opponents who might be in a high-intensity conflict. 

GDS_Starfury

am I incorrect in thinking that the smallest force structure the US uses in the brigade?
IIRC thats what weve been rolling around Europe for a while now.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


GDS_Starfury

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.