Russia's War Against Ukraine

Started by ArizonaTank, November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM

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FarAway Sooner

Quote from: Windigo on March 23, 2023, 05:00:47 PMI sense a little bias in that article....

nonetheless I do agree with most of their assertions, not that I am anything but a very bad armchair general with a lot of Ukrainian and Polish friends.

I'm in the same camp as you.  It's an interesting read, but many of the conclusions hinge on trusting the Ukrainian statements about Russian casualties.  It also relies on the assumption that the Russians can't keep throwing bodies at the Ukrainians until they've taken 1,000,000 casualties.  The casualty ratio that article cites for infantry loss about matches the ratio of military fatalities in the Russian defeat of Nazi Germany in WW2.

While all of the ideas articulated there are popular assertions in the expert groupthink that predominates in the West these days, I'll be a bit more wary of the fog of war until I see the Russians making more than one or two tactical retreats. 

FarAway Sooner

I'd be curious to know if anybody, on either side, has any hard numbers on how often tanks are fighting tanks.  My recollection from Zaloga's Armored Thunderbolt is that a detailed analysis by the US Army suggested that tanks accounted for about 15% of all enemy tank kills in Western Europe from 1944-1945. 

Anti-tank guns accounted for the most, with hand-held anti-tank weapons accounting for as many tank kills as enemy tanks.  Mines, artillery, and other means were all significantly less common.  I've got to think that ratio is even more tilted towards hand-held anti-tank weapons in the Ukraine war.

One of Zaloga's primary conclusions was that most historical evaluations of the Sherman relied upon an evaluation of one-on-one tank clashes, where it came out a definite loser to either the Panther or the Tiger.  The Sherman sported arguably the best medium-caliber HE round of the war, and given that tanks on both sides fired many more HE shells than AP shells, it really misvalued the Sherman's contribution to focus on the tank-vs-tank match-ups.

That's not to say that more modern, better-maintained tanks won't outperform the Russian tanks, but that it's harder to evaluate how they'll be used against mixed-arms formations in fixed positions.  I hope I'm being too pessimistic here.

GDS_Starfury

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JasonPratt

#6543
So where are those T54s/55s coming from?

Allllll the way over across the coast from northern Japan!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11zdw5z/satellite_images_show_that_soviet_tanks_t5455_are/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3


Edited to add: to be fair, those T54/55 platforms were probably intended for North Korea a long time ago: the factory is right on a tip of Nork territory.
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JasonPratt

#6544
When whatsisface was talking about Russian T-72s taking out modern Western tanks in the Gulf Wars... here's a reminder what T54s would be up against:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11zjtii/a_comparison_between_challenger_2_vs_t54/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

...."LOOK AT ALL THAT TARGET COMRADE, WE CANNOT MISS, THEY WILL NEVER EVEN BE ABLE TO SEE US!"  :evil:
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GDS_Starfury

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


JasonPratt

Well, I hope those Ts still have good motors from their rust-yards near Japan, because Russian armor will have to go short on motors for a while...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11zj9k5/in_russia_yaroslavl_motor_plant_is_on_fire_it/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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JasonPratt

Prigozhin prepares people to understand why Wagner is going to fail at Bahkmut...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11znd8w/ukrainian_troops_prepared_about_200000_reserve/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Note, will require some "Downfall" subtitling. Just without the histronics.
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ArizonaTank

Four Mig29s were donated by Slovakia, and Ukrainian pilots flew them to Ukraine.

So much for all the hand wringing from last year when there was great concern about having Ukrainian pilots fly donated aircraft directly from the country donating to Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/four-slovakian-mig-29s-flown-directly-to-ukraine-to-join-its-air-force/ar-AA190iVH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ca8c25a4f55b44f59243c1d4eb6b4fd3&ei=23

Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

ArizonaTank

Quote from: JasonPratt on March 23, 2023, 10:06:54 PMPrigozhin prepares people to understand why Wagner is going to fail at Bahkmut...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11znd8w/ukrainian_troops_prepared_about_200000_reserve/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Note, will require some "Downfall" subtitling. Just without the histronics.

One of the rumor sites even said they had it on good authority that Wagner is going to get out of Ukraine and concentrate on Africa.
Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

Crossroads

Quote from: JasonPratt on March 23, 2023, 09:52:39 PMWell, I hope those Ts still have good motors from their rust-yards near Japan, because Russian armor will have to go short on motors for a while...

I've seen a lot of comments saying that while they actually might succeed in transporting numerous T-55s to Ukraine the state of them will be so bad they won't be running after a couple of months - if that - due to engine and transmission issues alone.

For instance

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1638981612749705221
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JasonPratt

There's a lot of Spartanesque "If" built into Russia's warplans nowadays. ;)
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

Gusington

Russia planning to try to take Kyiv again this summer?



слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

FarAway Sooner

That's a good clip, Gus.  Thanks for sharing!  Best quote I've heard in a long time:  "America doesn't lose wars.  America loses interest."

By my math, our government is spending an amount equal to about 9% of our total 2023 defense budget on the Ukraine War.  That number is more than I thought it would be but less than I think it should be. 

It's given us a chance to draw down older inventories we were going to retire in another decade, it's given us a chance to battle-test weapon systems and doctrines in a real high-intensity conflict, and it's given us a chance to seriously degrade Russian military capabilities as they and Ukraine stagger towards a Finish Line where the last man on his feet wins.  From a purely mercenary standpoint, it's rationally in our own self-interest, both to weaken our only European rival and to set a deterrent policy for other would-be regional aggressors the world over.

Most importantly, it's the right thing to do.

Gusington

^It's definitely the right thing to do.

Another great quote from the above is, roughly 'Russia is going to find out why the United States does not have universal health care.'

 :cool:


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd