Russia's War Against Ukraine

Started by ArizonaTank, November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM

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Pete Dero

https://armedforces.eu/Ukraine

ArmedForces.eu contains information on military forces of countries. Here you can find data of military budget, personnel and current military equipment of all types. Equipment is divided into land forces, air forces and navy. You can check the specification, production year, cost and pictures or movies with land vehicles, aircrafts and navy ships. You can also find there a number of nukes in each country that possesses a nuclear weapon.

Not much info about the organization but more info about numbers and equipment.

ArizonaTank

#16
Quote from: Pete Dero on January 26, 2022, 03:50:15 AM
https://armedforces.eu/Ukraine

ArmedForces.eu contains information on military forces of countries. Here you can find data of military budget, personnel and current military equipment of all types. Equipment is divided into land forces, air forces and navy. You can check the specification, production year, cost and pictures or movies with land vehicles, aircrafts and navy ships. You can also find there a number of nukes in each country that possesses a nuclear weapon.

Not much info about the organization but more info about numbers and equipment.

Good site. The first thing that strikes me is that on paper at least, Ukraine is no pushover...and a Russian invasion would certainly not be a surprise attack. So the Ukrainians would make the Russians pay. Still, given the size disparity between Russian and Ukrainian forces...the Ukrainians probably don't last long in a full invasion scenario.

The Russians would probably own the sky and that probably means a bunch of dead Ukrainian tanks, and chaos in Ukrainian rear.  Also, looks like most of the Ukrainian tanks are upgraded T-64s from the last century. These did not fare well in open country against more modern armor during Desert Storm, no reason to expect they would do better on the steppes.

A full invasion would look kind of like a reverse Fall Weiss. Like the Poles in '39, the Ukrainians would have the invasion from three of four sides (Russia, Crimea and Belarus) and the Russians would have overwhelming air superiority. Also, like the Poles, the Ukrainians have mostly dated equipment...with a sprinkling of up-to-date stuff (but probably not enough). But unlike the Poles in '39 who had a hungry Stalin in their rear, the Ukrainians have a secure back end, bordering NATO.
Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

Gusington

There is a lot of discussion of Ukrainian territorial/militia groups continuing the fight with 'partisans' once their regular armed forces are beaten back.
слава Україна!

ArizonaTank

Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 01:40:23 PM
There is a lot of discussion of Ukrainian territorial/militia groups continuing the fight with 'partisans' once their regular armed forces are beaten back.

I would guess that even as "clever" as Putin is supposed to be, he can't really get past the law of unintended consequences here.

The Ukrainians have a long history of partisan warfare against occupiers...including anti-Soviet partisans. I guess that kind of partisan war would be a big drain on Putin's power.

Also, because of what is going on in the Ukraine, Finland and Sweden may look harder at NATO membership (but right now they are still saying "no"). But a full Russian invasion might push them over. Not a "win" for Putin by any means.
Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

Gusington

^Yes I just read that last night about Finland and Sweden.
слава Україна!

W8taminute

Recently watched that old classic from the 80's called "Red Dawn" so take that into consideration about the words that are about to follow.

So I'm not educated much about why Russia is seemingly willing to take Ukraine by force other than it used to be part of the Soviet Union.  But looking at what both sides stand to gain or lose and it's quite clear that if a war does break out it will be very painful.

The US seems to have activated some 50k troops to be sent to Europe somewhere in response to all of this tension over Ukraine. 

Anybody left home to defend us while all these troops are gone to Ukraine and Taiwan?  Where are all of our SSBNs and CVs right now?  Is the East Coast and West Coast secure?

This whole thing smells bad to me, but again I admit I'm just throwing out my uneducated opinion.

GDS_Starfury

QuoteAlso, looks like most of the Ukrainian tanks are upgraded T-64s from the last century.

IIRC the soviets never exported T-64s.  the tanks that got trashed in Iraq were T-62s.  The T-64 is/was one of the best tanks the soviets ever fielded and the Ukrainian ones are upgraded with ERA and probably newish fire controls.

QuoteThe US seems to have activated some 50k troops to be sent to Europe somewhere in response to all of this tension over Ukraine.

Anybody left home to defend us while all these troops are gone to Ukraine and Taiwan?  Where are all of our SSBNs and CVs right now?  Is the East Coast and West Coast secure?

First, all Ive heard is 5000 troops not 50000. 
your next line is laughable, and no Im not picking on you or talking down to you.  The chance of an actual land invasion of this country by anyone is simply a joke.  our SSBN are where they need to be as are our carriers.  keep in mind this isnt the Cold War and all of our armored units are pretty much stateside now and not forward deployed to Europe if that helps you sleep better.  our coasts are secure.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


SirAndrewD

Quote from: W8taminute on January 26, 2022, 04:05:41 PM

So I'm not educated much about why Russia is seemingly willing to take Ukraine by force other than it used to be part of the Soviet Union.  But looking at what both sides stand to gain or lose and it's quite clear that if a war does break out it will be very painful.

The US seems to have activated some 50k troops to be sent to Europe somewhere in response to all of this tension over Ukraine. 

Anybody left home to defend us while all these troops are gone to Ukraine and Taiwan?  Where are all of our SSBNs and CVs right now?  Is the East Coast and West Coast secure?

This whole thing smells bad to me, but again I admit I'm just throwing out my uneducated opinion.

I have a buddy in the DoD and a close friend (she might get closer when the ink on my divorce is dry) who is a professor of Russian History and we talk about this stuff a lot. 

Can't share with you all of what my DoD buddy said but I'll  say what I said and he agreed with. 

If the Russians invade, and we think it's a decent chance they will, it'll be before the thaw.

Putin's probably leaning strongly towards action, and that's not exactly because the Ukraine is former Soviet territory, it's really just how the Russians think about their defense. 

From a Russian mindset, they've been invaded in the last 200 years by Sweden, France and Germany twice.   They have a serious worry about invasions from the west, and they want as much real estate between them and their enemies as possible. 

Every Eastern European country that joins NATO, to Russians, looks like an ever strengthening position to attack Russia.   A NATO Ukraine is a knife right into the heart of central Russia, and a perfect jumping off point to cut the rest of Russia off from the Caucuses.  The Baltic state threaten their northern outlet to the sea.  The Russians simply won't allow this. 

This isn't dissimilar to why we have the Monroe Doctrine and why we intervened in South America so much in the Cold War.  We didn't want the Warsaw Pact to share a border with us, or even come close to doing so.  Part of the conceit of Red Dawn was that South America and Mexico joined the Warsaw Pact giving them a southern front, so this is a concern even we had. 

And while your concern about the defense of the homeland I think is not too much worry, I would worry about China using the opportunity of a war in the Ukraine to make moves of their own. 

Putin and the Russian media have created a lot of peaceful outs if he wants to take them.  In Russia this is being played as NATO buildup and aggression and Russia trying to be peacemakers.  He can say he brokered "Peace in our time" if he wants to back it down.  But, if he has a real, reasonable belief that the Ukraine will join NATO, I don't think he will. 

And if he goes in, you'd better hope the Russians win quickly and decisively.  If the war bogs down I'd be scared to see what a desperate Russia will do to break a stalemate.
"These men do not want a happy ship. They are deeply sick and try to compensate by making me feel miserable. Last week was my birthday. Nobody even said "happy birthday" to me. Someday this tape will be played and then they'll feel sorry."  - Sgt. Pinback

Gusington

слава Україна!

Jarhead0331

Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 07:40:40 PM
Hold up...you're getting a divorce???

Yeah. WTF? Does this mean you'll be changing your avatar?
Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


Sir Slash

Is there anyone here who seriously believes that once Putin gets the Ukraine, he will sit down and behave himself? The guy's on a mission to recreate the USSR and destroy NATO. And he will be in a much stronger position to do so with the Ukraine's resources at his disposal. Remember the old saying, "Russia without the Ukraine is a country. Russia with the Ukraine is an empire".  Next on his list will be the Baltics and Poland unless the West stands united and in his weasel-ish face. It's 1938 all over again and Ukraine is the new Czechoslovakia.  :coolsmiley:
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

GDS_Starfury

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


SirAndrewD

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on January 26, 2022, 07:46:01 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 07:40:40 PM
Hold up...you're getting a divorce???

Yeah. WTF? Does this mean you'll be changing your avatar?

Yeah, sadly.  Final paperwork is in process right now.

Not my choice, and around September when I learned that I was, it was a pretty big shock to me as well.

Dunno if I'll change my avatar or not.  My (soon to be ex) wife and I are still pretty close, or at least I think we are.  Just not close enough for us to stay married or living under the same roof for much longer, at least as far as she's concerned. 
"These men do not want a happy ship. They are deeply sick and try to compensate by making me feel miserable. Last week was my birthday. Nobody even said "happy birthday" to me. Someday this tape will be played and then they'll feel sorry."  - Sgt. Pinback

Gusington

I am really sorry to hear that. Sorry for the thread derail.
слава Україна!

Jarhead0331

Quote from: SirAndrewD on January 26, 2022, 08:44:47 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on January 26, 2022, 07:46:01 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 07:40:40 PM
Hold up...you're getting a divorce???

Yeah. WTF? Does this mean you'll be changing your avatar?

Yeah, sadly.  Final paperwork is in process right now.

Not my choice, and around September when I learned that I was, it was a pretty big shock to me as well.

Dunno if I'll change my avatar or not.  My (soon to be ex) wife and I are still pretty close, or at least I think we are.  Just not close enough for us to stay married or living under the same roof for much longer, at least as far as she's concerned.

I've been there, and it sucks. But had I not gone through that experience, I never would have met my soulmate and mother to my children. You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. Good luck, brother. Let us know if you need anything.
Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18