Russia's War Against Ukraine

Started by ArizonaTank, November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM

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ArizonaTank

#30
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2022, 06:17:54 PM
QuoteAlso, looks like most of the Ukrainian tanks are upgraded T-64s from the last century.

IIRC the soviets never exported T-64s.  the tanks that got trashed in Iraq were T-62s.  The T-64 is/was one of the best tanks the soviets ever fielded and the Ukrainian ones are upgraded with ERA and probably newish fire controls.


Yes, you are right I was sloppy. The combats I had in mind were the "Eastings." No T-64s, but a whole bunch of T-72s (along with T-55s and 62s). The T-72 and T-64 were contemporaries and depending on where you read, somewhat equivalent. Of course, to your point the Ukrainian T-64s aren't your 'grand dad's 64s,' and have been vastly upgraded, including a better gun.

BTW, my best references for these tanks are the excellent Combat Mission manuals that thoroughly describe the various tanks through about the year 2017 (Shock Force 2, Cold War and Black Sea). If you have any of these games, check out the equipment descriptions in the back.   
Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

GDS_Starfury

I got divorced and ended up back with one of my best friends and am the happiest Ive ever been.

and fuck russia!
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Gusington

слава Україна!

Sir Slash

I been on the Divorce Train myself and it will in time bring you to a much happier place than when you got on it. Misery is trying to save something un-saveable and wasting years doing it. A brighter, happier future lies ahead of you SirAndrew. Just don't let anger and bitterness blind you to the next great thing coming into your life. I would do it all over again in a minute to get where I'm at now.  O0
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

SirAndrewD

Thanks for the sentiments all. 

It's had its fraught moments but she and I are on the same page I think.  The hardest thing was the pet custody (thankfully no kids) and just the idea of starting out on my own in a new place.   We worked out an equitable split of the pets and assets and we're trying to transition back into the friendship that got us a long way.  She's still someone I'm going to see and hang out with a lot, heck, we're still doing most of our normal stuff.  Fifteen years together and twenty six knowing each other is a long time to just let it all go sour.

I think it'll be ok, just kind of want it over with and to start the next chapter.

Anyway, no more derailment.  I guess if someone wants we can start a surviving divorce topic in IRL.  This is my first rodeo so I might find a lot of advice helpful.
"These men do not want a happy ship. They are deeply sick and try to compensate by making me feel miserable. Last week was my birthday. Nobody even said "happy birthday" to me. Someday this tape will be played and then they'll feel sorry."  - Sgt. Pinback

Pete Dero

Quote from: Sir Slash on January 26, 2022, 07:53:56 PM
Is there anyone here who seriously believes that once Putin gets the Ukraine, he will sit down and behave himself? The guy's on a mission to recreate the USSR and destroy NATO. And he will be in a much stronger position to do so with the Ukraine's resources at his disposal. Remember the old saying, "Russia without the Ukraine is a country. Russia with the Ukraine is an empire".  Next on his list will be the Baltics and Poland unless the West stands united and in his weasel-ish face. It's 1938 all over again and Ukraine is the new Czechoslovakia.  :coolsmiley:


W8taminute

Sorry to hear about your divorce SirAndrew. 

Star I know you're not picking on me but you gave a good response to my question.  (as fearful as my question was, lol)

But yeah I worry about these things. 

Gusington

There is a good Netflix movie on The Munich Conference with Jeremy Irons playing a better Chamberlain than Chamberlain did.
слава Україна!

JasonPratt

Sorry for your troubles, SirAndrew.  :'( I'm glad to hear you'll still be friends and doing much the same things, but, sigh.

Re Jeremy Irons: oh, yeah, that movie sounds good! I could easily imagine Jeremy Irons playing Chamberlain! And now the internet should give me Irons-asChamberlain singing the Nazi-ish song "BE PREPAAAARRED!" from The Lion King (where he played Scar.)
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

JasonPratt

Regarding the main topic: listening to some other military geeks talk about it, too, including one guy who used to do work for the DoD in analysis of Russian military intel, I'm leaning toward the "sphere of influence" theory. I.e., Putin doesn't want to occupy Ukraine or even fight them that much. He just wants to take advantage of weakness in the west to shift the Ukraine (by small but decisive occupational action and threats) into being in Russia's sphere of influence rather than NATO's.

This theory overlaps with the theory upthread that Putin wants to keep NATO from using the Ukraine as a Fortified Sector, so to speak (in Soviet pre-WW2 parlance), for staging invasion. In this scenario, Putin uses the Ukraine as a FS for denying an invasion route a la the Iron Curtain Warsaw Pact principle.

Of course, in Soviet doctrine (paraphrasing from memory here, quoting one of the Soviet FS commanders), "only the naive regard [Soviet] Fortified Sectors as being primarily for defense"! Putin could also be thinking of using the Ukraine as a military district for springboarding his own invasions elsewhere, most likely to somewhere no one cares enough about to go to war.

Anyway, this theory also explains why the Biden administration signaled that they'd be okay if Putin tried a "just the tip" invasion (as Ben Shapiro colorfully denounced it). The Ukraine allies itself with Russia consequently, while maintaining its own administrative government under Russian oversight, and we bulk up on other border areas consequently. Yay, everyone wins! -- except the Ukrainians, more or less, but they don't lose nearly as badly.

Bill Whittle and his crew discussed another key point in favor of this theory yesterday, that appeals to logistics: namely, according to their contacts, Putin hasn't set up a proper logistic train for even trying to overrun the country, much less occupy it.



Does this jibe with information y'all are getting from other sources?

Update: bonus geek points for Steve Green's coffee mug...!  8)
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Pete Dero

Quote from: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 10:35:04 AM
Anyway, this theory also explains why the Biden administration signaled that they'd be okay if Putin tried a "just the tip" invasion (as Ben Shapiro colorfully denounced it).
Biden said something like that but the administration quickly corrected him and put out statements that they are not going to accept any kind of incursion.

Quote from: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 10:35:04 AM
Bill Whittle and his crew discussed another key point in favor of this theory yesterday, that appeals to logistics: namely, according to their contacts, Putin hasn't set up a proper logistic train for even trying to overrun the country, much less occupy it.
If you have over 100.000 troops and a large number of tanks and other heavy weapons on 'training exercises' you also have some logistics working.


Keep an eye on the weather.  Even modern tanks & equipment don't function well in Russian and Ukrainian mud.

Gusington

^Yes and that's why analysts have been saying if an invasion happens, it happens before spring/March, so the tanks and heavy weapons can be more mobile on frozen ground.
слава Україна!

Pete Dero

Quote from: Gusington on January 27, 2022, 11:31:07 AM
^Yes and that's why analysts have been saying if an invasion happens, it happens before spring/March, so the tanks and heavy weapons can be more mobile on frozen ground.

Climate change could save Europe from war ...

Sir Slash

Most people don't know about it, but I've got it on good authority that Vlad was actually created in a secret Soviet laboratory using DNA from Hitler and Wily E. Coyote. This should explain a lot for all of us.  :o
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

JasonPratt

Quote from: Pete Dero on January 27, 2022, 10:54:12 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 10:35:04 AM
Bill Whittle and his crew discussed another key point in favor of this theory yesterday, that appeals to logistics: namely, according to their contacts, Putin hasn't set up a proper logistic train for even trying to overrun the country, much less occupy it.
If you have over 100.000 troops and a large number of tanks and other heavy weapons on 'training exercises' you also have some logistics working.

True, but there's still a difference between logistics for support on the border, and logistics for invasion support. The paper they were referring to indicated that the logistics for invasion aren't there. (Unfortunately they didn't link to the paper, so I have no idea what the details are for that inference.)

Also, yes, I forgot that the administration quickly walked back Biden's comment, so that no invasion is preferable. However, this may also be a case of Biden accidentally saying the quiet part out loud, and/or signaling to Biden that even though our administration says one thing publicly, we're willing to accept some small decisive action.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.