War gaming Taiwan invasion

Started by MengJiao, January 10, 2023, 07:34:24 AM

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Gusington

This was covered by a lot of press outlets yesterday in a mild panic.


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

MengJiao

Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2023, 08:58:06 AM
This was covered by a lot of press outlets yesterday in a mild panic.

  I guess the press panic is sort of the event.  What's odd is that the assessment of the 24 runs of various versions of the game isn't as pessimistic as the standard DoD line on a Chinese attack.
I kind of agree with the gamey version of events except that I would say (based on two runs of Next War Vietnam), there's no particular reason to rush into forward airfields or to put it another way,
based on what we've seen in Ukraine, modern wars can be quite cranky and for that matter -- if you were going to attack somewhere, would you really want to have a supply line over the sea
versus the most powerful navy in the world when you have no way to hit them unless they busy themselves messing you up?  Or to put it another way -- in Taiwan (as to some degree in Ukraine)
the US is only as exposed as it chooses to be and can choose the time and method of its retaliations.

Jarhead0331

Quote from: MengJiao on January 10, 2023, 09:23:23 AM

the US is only as exposed as it chooses to be and can choose the time and method of its retaliations.

Not necessarily true at all. The US can choose the time and method of its retaliation, but only in as much as Taiwan holds the line and does not fall or capitulate. I believe in order to have a meaningful impact on the outcome, US direct intervention will be time of the essence.
Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


Gusington

When I saw this story yesterday the first thing I wondered was 'how much of a paper tiger is the Chinese military?'


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

Jarhead0331

Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2023, 09:32:31 AM
When I saw this story yesterday the first thing I wondered was 'how much of a paper tiger is the Chinese military?'

They fought us to a stalemate in 1953. Much has changed since then (not all of it for the better), but I think the reality of open warfare between the US and China is much the same. The costs of achieving a decisive victory may be too high to justify such a commitment.
Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


Gusington

I was also thinking of how far ahead of the Russian military is the Chinese military.

If I worked for China, the first thing I would put out there in response to these games is that 'we are not Russia' and 'Taiwan is not Ukraine.'

Just to make it perfectly clear.


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

MengJiao

Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2023, 09:32:31 AM
When I saw this story yesterday the first thing I wondered was 'how much of a paper tiger is the Chinese military?'

  I'd say not a paper tiger, but not up to taking on the US especially since US forces are not significantly exposed to Chinese conventional weapons
until they enter the war zone and the entire Chinese operational force would be pretty exposed if they went after Taiwan.  Or to put it another way,
once they go after Taiwan, the US can hit the whole Chinese force while keeping most of its forces in reserve and building to a crescendo over a period
of 2-4 weeks as things prove advantageous.

MengJiao

Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2023, 09:52:15 AM
I was also thinking of how far ahead of the Russian military is the Chinese military.

If I worked for China, the first thing I would put out there in response to these games is that 'we are not Russia' and 'Taiwan is not Ukraine.'

Just to make it perfectly clear.

  But there are so many problematic variables for China:
1) an amphibious attack versus enemies that are likely to have powerful undetected naval forces capable of arriving at any time from anywhere in the area
2) an amphibious attack versus enemies whose levels of response are unknown
3) an amphibious attack versus enemies who are likely to be able to gain some measure of local air superiority eventually
4) an amphibious attack versus enemies who are likely to have secret agreements with many local powers (eg. Vietnam and Singapore)
5) an amphibious attack wherein the largest navy in the world may take a role against you

And so on.  China would face a challenge much greater than just driving across the border from Belarus to take Kyiv and we saw how that turned out.

Gusington

^All true, but from the Chinese perspective, even if not true, I would put it into Western minds not to expect an easy time defending Taiwan.


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

Tripoli

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would not be a cake walk for the PRC.  With that said, neither would it be the "million Man Swim" that it would have been 30 years ago. In fact, the rise of Chinese military capability has been breath-taking.  The nearest analogy is the rise of German military power (particularly in their navy) in the 1900-1914 period.  WIth that said, I don't think they would win, assuming full US involvement.

Part of my logic is that Amphibious ops are very difficult to execute, and the PLAN has no experience doing anything close to this scale.  Plus, Taiwan has some very difficult terrain, which would greatly aid the resistance, if the PLA is not defeated on the beach.  With that said, there are a couple of sobering points:
1) The PRC has some good gear, at least on paper
2) The PRC has a lot of the above-mentioned gear
3) Taiwan has neglected and/or been prevented from properly equipping and manning its forces.  It is weaker than it should be, and a lot of its equipment is mis-aligned for the threat it faces (for instance, it should be spending more money on mines/anti-access  and anti-tank gear than on ASW gear IMHO)
4) A lot depends on the US reaction.  If hypothetically, the US makes the political decision to not substantially assist Taiwan, then a blockade will likely suffice for its eventual capitulation.  As is appropriate to the nation that birthed Sun Tzu, the PRC is spending a lot of time on "elite capture" to help ensure that the West in general and the US in particular do not come to Taiwan's aid. The are also increasing their nuclear capability to help encourage the view in the US that assisting Taiwan would risk a nuclear exchange.
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

Sir Slash

Good points all. I believe the only nation that would come to Taiwan's assistance directly would be the U.S. Perhaps afterward other countries would help but only if it was obvious the Dragon was losing or unable to win directly. If the U.S. were to be too slow to provide real support or unwilling to confront China directly, then no one else will either and it's game over. The only real question is how much is China willing to pay for taking the island?

I believe China could do much better if they dropped all the threats and belligerence and tried peacefully re-uniting with Taiwan rather than conquering it. A younger generation of both countries would be much more likely to support and approve of this approach. A much easier, 'win' for Ping. My 2 cents. 
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

Tripoli

Quote from: Sir Slash on January 10, 2023, 12:03:37 PM
...

I believe China could do much better if they dropped all the threats and belligerence and tried peacefully re-uniting with Taiwan rather than conquering it. A younger generation of both countries would be much more likely to support and approve of this approach. A much easier, 'win' for Ping. My 2 cents.

While you are correct in this, "a fascist gotta fascist."  In other words, a fascist government is going to act like a fascist government.  It can't behave any other way.  After their suppression of Hong Kong, the PRC lost any capability of pretending that they could peacefully reunite with Taiwan under conditions acceptable to the Taiwanese.
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

ArizonaTank

#13
Quote from: Tripoli on January 10, 2023, 12:27:59 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on January 10, 2023, 12:03:37 PM
...

I believe China could do much better if they dropped all the threats and belligerence and tried peacefully re-uniting with Taiwan rather than conquering it. A younger generation of both countries would be much more likely to support and approve of this approach. A much easier, 'win' for Ping. My 2 cents.

While you are correct in this, "a fascist gotta fascist."  In other words, a fascist government is going to act like a fascist government.  It can't behave any other way.  After their suppression of Hong Kong, the PRC lost any capability of pretending that they could peacefully reunite with Taiwan under conditions acceptable to the Taiwanese.

I think there are a few other macro level wildcards in the mix.

1) China has the capacity for letting nationalism run amok. There is a deep-seated feeling that the world doesn't treat them as they deserve. Kind of like Japan felt before WWII. This occasionally shows up in border disputes or culture war issues with Japan for example. So far the Chinese government has managed to put the genie back in the bottle whenever it sneaks out. But if Xi needs a distraction from domestic troubles, he might just let nationalism fly, and in that case we could see what otherwise seems like irrational behavior.

2) Corruption, past and present is somewhat of an unknown. In the past, China has had a huge problem with it. The Chinese military has even had uncomfortably close relations (and even ownership) of private companies. So I suspect that some of the same sort of corruption issues the Russian military has had to deal with in its war on Ukraine, will plague the Chinese as well. This would mostly show up in the logistics chain. However, unlike Russia, under Xi, the Chinese have had several high profile national efforts to purge corruption. No idea how effective this has been.   
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Silent Disapproval Robot

I suspect an invasion of Taiwan on March 1st.

I know this because that's the day I fly into Taipei for a 4 hour layover and it's just how my luck rolls.