War gaming Taiwan invasion

Started by MengJiao, January 10, 2023, 07:34:24 AM

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fran

Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on January 10, 2023, 02:44:06 PM
I suspect an invasion of Taiwan on March 1st.

I know this because that's the day I fly into Taipei for a 4 hour layover and it's just how my luck rolls.


;D

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Tripoli

Quote from: ArizonaTank on January 10, 2023, 02:16:35 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on January 10, 2023, 12:27:59 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on January 10, 2023, 12:03:37 PM
...

I believe China could do much better if they dropped all the threats and belligerence and tried peacefully re-uniting with Taiwan rather than conquering it. A younger generation of both countries would be much more likely to support and approve of this approach. A much easier, 'win' for Ping. My 2 cents.

While you are correct in this, "a fascist gotta fascist."  In other words, a fascist government is going to act like a fascist government.  It can't behave any other way.  After their suppression of Hong Kong, the PRC lost any capability of pretending that they could peacefully reunite with Taiwan under conditions acceptable to the Taiwanese.

I think there are a few other macro level wildcards in the mix.

1) China has the capacity for letting nationalism run amok. There is a deep-seated feeling that the world doesn't treat them as they deserve. Kind of like Japan felt before WWII. This occasionally shows up in border disputes or culture war issues with Japan for example. So far the Chinese government has managed to put the genie back in the bottle whenever it sneaks out. But if Xi needs a distraction from domestic troubles, he might just let nationalism fly, and in that case we could see what otherwise seems like irrational behavior.

...

I agree that this is a very real danger.  If Xi thinks he is loosing the population (most likely because of slowing economic growth) he very well try to retain it by a successful war.  The best way to avoid this is to minimize the chances that the war would be successful.  IMHO, this is one of the major reasons for the US staying the course in Ukraine, as I believe it is also sending a message to the PRC that such a resort to war may not give Xi the public relations boost he hopes for. 

However, there is one problem: If the PRC sees more of the world waking up to their designs, and the "correlation of forces" beginning to go against them, they may choose to strike while they have the best chance of winning.  IMHO, we are entering a dangerous period for at least the next ten years while the west tries to rearm in the face of a global economic slowing, and the PRC is still benefitting from the rearming decisions they made a couple of years ago.
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

Sir Slash

If China is stuck on the idea of their being mistreated by the rest of the world in the past, who's treated them worse than the Russians? I remember vast areas of Russian Territory the Chinese used to claim was theirs originally and taken by the Czars. Is this still the case? Or did they settle this sometime recently?
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Tripoli

Quote from: Sir Slash on January 10, 2023, 11:15:47 PM
If China is stuck on the idea of their being mistreated by the rest of the world in the past, who's treated them worse than the Russians? I remember vast areas of Russian Territory the Chinese used to claim was theirs originally and taken by the Czars. Is this still the case? Or did they settle this sometime recently?

My guess is that somewhere in the bowls of the PLAN Headquarters there is an OPLAN for settling this issue.  And I would bet that it has been updated after the Russian performance in the Ukraine.  I'm not saying the PRC would execute this plan, as Russia still has a boatload of nukes.  However, I'm sure the thought has crossed their mind.  With that said, right now Taiwan is the bigger fish to fry, because they have been beating the reunification drum for 70 years and because it breaks them out of the first island chain.  Right now, the PRC is getting the raw materials it needs from Russia via peaceful means, so this little border issue can wait for later resolution.
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

FarAway Sooner

Yeah.  Politicians tend to go into major wars of conquest for personal, political reasons more than they do out of a calculating sense of realpolitik

Trying to predict what's going to happen once the shooting starts is extraordinarily difficult.  Trying to predict what's going to happen once the shooting starts in a major amphibious operation between two nations (Taiwan and Japan) whose armies haven't fought a war in 50+ years is even harder.  From reading reports, CSIS clearly assumed the active involvement of Japan in this war alongside the US.

It's the amphibious aspect of this operation that undoubtedly gives the Chinese pause.  I'm assuming that Chinese air power could neutralize anything better than sporadic AA efforts from Taiwan, but US and Japanese air forces both have hundreds of land-based aircraft in Japan, in addition to however many carriers the US would throw into the fray.

The CSIS outcome seems reasonable:  The Chinese invasion fails, but only at an extraordinary cost to Japan and the US.  But the only thing for sure in wars is that you can't be sure.

Sir Slash

I heard today that Britain and Japan are talking a mutual defence pact thing where they would consider stationing troops in each others countries. That'd be a first for Japan.
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GDS_Starfury

in what way would it be a first?  British troops?
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Staggerwing

There were British troops stationed in Japan after Japan's surrender in WW2.

As far as I know, there were never any Japanese troops stationed in great Britain. Plenty in some of of Britain's oversees territories however.
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ArizonaTank

#24
Quote from: Staggerwing on January 12, 2023, 06:34:01 AM
There were British troops stationed in Japan after Japan's surrender in WW2.

As far as I know, there were never any Japanese troops stationed in great Britain. Plenty in some of of Britain's oversees territories however.

This is a huge! China's saber rattling has really brought Japan out of its shell. 

Japan has sent small detachments on peace-keeping missions to Cambodia, Sudan and a few other places in the last 20 years. These deployments have always been politically risky in Japan, and often negatively commented on by Japan's neighbors. Memories of WWII have been the largest driving factor keeping the Japanese from flexing any military muscle. In some of the initial deployments, the Japanese troops didn't have weapons and were restricted to logistical support.

I spent some time as a liaison to the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) thirty years ago. From my experience, a strong opposition to overseas deployment was pretty well baked into the SDF's DNA. They did send folks overseas for training, but were always very careful about it.

So I am flabbergasted to see how far Japan has come. Personally, I am happy to see Japan step up. Since WWII Japan has become a strong democracy and one of the US' most steadfast partners.
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Sir Slash

I agree. A very positive development bound to get Ping's attention. Just out of courosity, where do the Brits base their units now in the Pacific/Asia if anywhere? Anybody know what they have and where it's at? Subs I imagine?
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

demjansk1942

With an invasion, what what would happen with trade?  Chinese economy would crumble if the West just pulled everything, just a thought and the CCP could be overthrown

Jarhead0331

Quote from: Sir Slash on January 12, 2023, 10:47:15 AMI agree. A very positive development bound to get Ping's attention. Just out of courosity, where do the Brits base their units now in the Pacific/Asia if anywhere? Anybody know what they have and where it's at? Subs I imagine?

British overseas disposition

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Sir Slash

"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

FarAway Sooner

As AZTank suggested, I think the dramatic thing about this is that the Japanese might be committing to station troops abroad on a permanent basis for the first time in more than 75 years.  It'll be interesting to see whether any of those troops serve in combat roles, or if they're just intended to provide logistical support.  Even in some of their peacekeeping operations, Japanese troops weren't always armed.

I guess Chinese saber-rattling and North Korean ballistic missile testing have convinced the Japanese to come out of their pacifist shell.  We'll see how that evolves, but it's got to be something that China cares about.