Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

I would not think the Russians want a siege, but time will tell I guess.

[Skoop]

I've been hearing about the build up for a couple weeks.  Interesting, cause this is one where Ukraine won't just give ground.

[FarAway Sooner]

I've been hearing about the build up for a couple weeks.  Interesting, cause this is one where Ukraine won't just give ground.

Not if they have any choice, certainly!

We've been hearing reports that the Russian Army is on the verge of collapse for about 21 months now.  So far, they've proven to have the same indifference to casualties that they had in WW2.

To be sure, the tardy supply of basic ammunition from the US and from Western European allies has left them in a bad place for a while.  It's a little unclear how quickly that can be remedied now that the US is getting off its collective butt.  Better late than never, although it still pisses me off that the US dropped the baton like it did in keeping basic logistical materials flowing.

I'm now convinced that the Europeans can only move quickly to provide aid to Ukraine if something is:  A) painless; and B) offers A LOT of money for national special interests of some sort or another.  Otherwise, the Europeans seem to be happy sitting on their asses, rattling their sabres, and authorizing the transfer of small handfuls of fairly expensive and impressive-sounding equipment while they patiently wait for their corporations to be guaranteed billions of Euroes via free market contracting before they lift a finger.

[Skoop]

The dwindling of artillery shell supply, the low supply of Patriot missiles to combat the su34 glide bomb dropping are the main culprits.

Then Ukraine running out of manpower isn't helping either, nothing the west can do about Ukrainians not signing up for the military or zelenski's refusal to conscript.

Not helping that Russia isn't invited to the coming peace talks.

The cold reality is no one wants world war 3 today, everyone's economy is saying we'll wait for article 5.

Good effort though, ukraine has accounted themselves quite admirable. Their resistance was better than 2014, Putin had to pay big this time, and may think twice next time.

It's time for peace fortunately or unfortunately, how ever you may view the situation.

[Gusington]

Peace at what cost is the question. Is Ukraine ready to accept that 20% or more of their territory is now Russian and may be forever?

[Con]

Don't see it happening
Russias economy is now linked to the war 
They don't get to go back to the way it was before
Oil embargo's on tech will hamper growth
Brightest have left Russia to avoid the meat grinder
No organic or other tech growth
No country trusts Russia
I think the true battlefield is economic resilience and the story for Russia has not been played out 
The leading indicators are not positive for them without massive intervention
 which I don't see coming from China or India who have their own economic problems
Con

[Skoop]

Peace at what cost is the question. Is Ukraine ready to accept that 20% or more of their territory is now Russian and may be forever?

I know, it's a tough pill to swallow.  But Ukraine has made Putin pay far more than that 20% is worth.  Like Con eluded to, Russia might implode economically in the long run.  We have to keep the rest of Ukraine in tact in the mean time.  No one in the west is willing to switch their economy over to war time production to produce 70,0000 arty shells per month, cause that's what it will take to win this.  A dozen F16s is like panthers and elephants winning at Kursk'43, arty and trenches won that one too. 

[Crossroads]

Another long read from Lawrence Freedman of Ukraine, Putin's Victory day, and the situation in grand scale of things.

For Putin deadlock is preferable to defeat but victory would be better. He had reason to believe at the start of this year that he might have a path to victory as his forces pressed hard against Ukrainian positions along the line of contact while the US Congress was paralysed by Republican Party splits. This led to concern that we had reached a turning point in this war, with Russia having the more reason to be optimistic.

The pendulum has yet to swing in the other direction but Russia's big push has not yielded decisive results and its position could worsen towards the end of this year. So for the third year in a row Putin has celebrated a famous victory of almost eight decades ago while being unable to claim a new victory.

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a-third-victory-parade-with-no-victory?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web