GrogHeads Forum

did anyone else have chinese spy balloons on their bingo card?

QuoteIn previous instances, Chinese high-altitude balloons did not loiter for long over the continental U.S., a senior defense official said.

what previous instances?  :headscratch:

I had zebras from Burkina Faso. Oh well maybe tomorrow.

In case anyone is wondering:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64507225

Quote from: Gusington on February 02, 2023, 08:44:45 PMI had zebras from Burkina Faso. Oh well maybe tomorrow.

In case anyone is wondering:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64507225

They couldn't make stealth ballons?

they bought it off alibaba

Maybe this was an attempt at a stealth balloon...that everyone saw  :ROFL:

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 02, 2023, 07:45:02 PM

QuoteIn previous instances, Chinese high-altitude balloons did not loiter for long over the continental U.S., a senior defense official said.

what previous instances?  :headscratch:

What "previous instances"... how about what "loitering"?  This senior defense official doesn't really know how balloons work?

way isnt it being deflated?

The danger of falling debris, over Montana? To what, Prairie Dogs? And why don't we have a Falling Chinese Spy Balloon emote?  :rollingpin:

So you're telling me an $800 billion/year defense budget can't stop a balloon?

Chinese state controlled media (Global Times News) is mocking the US air defense system as nothing but a decoration.  It's on Twitter which I got a notification on Telegram for.

I'd post the link but don't know how to work a phone as I am old.

A very good thread from Brynn Tannehill.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1621502728613646339?t=baUTT_hhu5QjG3yuInzceg&s=19 (https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1621502728613646339?t=baUTT_hhu5QjG3yuInzceg&s=19)

This seems like a great opportunity for the US to diplomatically tell the Chinese to 'f*ck around and find out' how much of a decoration the US air defense system really is.

A second balloon spotted??

QuoteCanada said it was monitoring a "potential second incident" relating to a balloon. China has yet to respond to this statement.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-spy-balloon-us-montana-canada-rcna68953

Depending on the altitude of the ballon, it may be a bigger problem to shoot down.  It likely doesn't have much of a radar signature, or heat signature, so using missiles may be difficult.  An F-15 ceiling is around 65,000 feet, so if this Ballon is higher than that shooting it down could be difficult.  Directed energy weapons (If any are available) might work, but that risks giving away a capability of a system, so they may make the choice not to. It might be worth considering using a LGM if you could paint the ballon with a the laser and then fire a missile at it.  (I'm not saying this would work: It is just an idea).

I suspect that at the end of the day, this is more of a problem to shoot down.  I believe that the fear of damage on the ground from debis is an excuse.  This is allegedly the 2nd such ballon, and it was tracked (allegedly) from Alaska and Canada to Montana.  That area is fundamentally empty, so the chance of significant debris damage is minor.  I suspect the PRC is sending these over to score cheap humiliation points, as they could have likely gotten any intelligence collectable from this device by other (and possibly more covert) means

how much elint data can the air force suck out of this thing?

Montana originally shut down air traffic at a nearby airport due to the balloon, so I have trouble believing it's 65,000 feet. It's only the size of a bus, and a phone camera can see it from the ground. (Or that was true at the time the F22s scrambled). Of course its altitude may have adjusted by then; and maybe its altitude is why Raptors (of all things) were scrambled against it. (That and for sake of some practice scrambling plus a ShootX, albeit denied by Biden on authority of his generals supposedly.)

The thread-link from Groggy was listed as unavailable by our site system, but I can confirm it's still there. Will try link again: https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1621502728613646339?t=baUTT_hhu5QjG3yuInzceg&s=19

Huh, still says Tweet doesn't exist. I'm reading it right now...

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 03, 2023, 10:31:15 AMhow much elint data can the air force suck out of this thing?

Depends.  The US claims it was aware of it and took security precautions along its route.  Possibly it did, and possibly those were effective.  Also, modern ELINT satellites are also capable of collection, so I'm not sure how much more this balloon could collect over a satellite, if that was its purpose.  Presumably, it is capable of taking better photographs than a satellite, simply because it is closer to the ground.  But the relative lack of control makes it less effective than satellites.  I think the relative disadvantages (relative lack of control, lack of covertness of the platform, and relative vulnerability, and political disadvantages) means that it is more of a PR stunt, designed to make the US look weak and vulnerable.  However, I'm not sure that view will play well either internationally or with US domestic public opinion. Other nations see China violating international norms and will start to wonder if they are next.  Right now, the US is having a debate about its military and a possible war with China over Taiwan.  Incidents like this are not going to be viewed positively by the public.  If you ask whether China could possibly be that stupid, I think the answer is yes they can.  Over the past 20 years they have pissed off just about all of their neighbors, and are now working on pissing off most of Africa.

Quote from: JasonPratt on February 03, 2023, 10:56:01 AMMontana originally shut down air traffic at a nearby airport due to the balloon, so I have trouble believing it's 65,000 feet. It's only the size of a bus, and a phone camera can see it from the ground. (Or that was true at the time the F22s scrambled). Of course its altitude may have adjusted by then; and maybe its altitude is why Raptors (of all things) were scrambled against it. (That and for sake of some practice scrambling plus a ShootX, albeit denied by Biden on authority of his generals supposedly.)

The thread-link from Groggy was listed as unavailable by our site system, but I can confirm it's still there. Will try link again: https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1621502728613646339?t=baUTT_hhu5QjG3yuInzceg&s=19

Huh, still says Tweet doesn't exist. I'm reading it right now...

I'm assuming it is at weather balloon height, which is frequently above 65,000.  If in fact it is lower, then the only reason we haven't shot it down is political, and IMHO has nothing to do with potential debris damage on the ground.  As far as images taken with cell phone cameras, an unaided cell phone, if stably mounted could likely take a photo.  At 20 miles altiude, a 100 foot long object occupies 0.05 degrees or 3 arcminutes, so I think a iphone 13 could capture it. (For point of reference, the full moon is about 31 arcminutes in diameter, so a 100 foot long object is about 1/10 the size of the full moon).  If you put it behind a pair of binoculars, you can actually take images through it (I pulled this stunt at Yellowstone with an iphone 7, trying to take a photo of a wolf at about 1 mile distance) edit: I just checked, and a 3 foot wolf would occupy about 0.13 arc minutes at a mile distance, roughly about 2.5 times the size of my hypothetical 100 foot target at 20 miles.  Based on this, I can say a iphone 7 could capture, (with proper lighting) the balloon.

Right now, Putin's thinking, "Damn, balloons. Why didn't WE think of that"?  :hair:

Pentagon spokesperson just confirmed that the balloon is able to maneuver and has changed it's direction.  :shocked: He would not say if it is still being controlled by the Chinese or has independent ability to move on it's own. That's Top Secret, we're not allowed to know. He also would not say how they are able to know this, how it's able to move, or where it's at right now but that they are tracking it constantly. But wouldn't say how. But this IS a Spy Balloon despite what the Chi Comms say that it was civilian and for weather research. How they know this he wouldn't say.  Oh, and the Pentagon says it is no threat to us. How? We're not allowed to know. So I feel much better about all now. How about you?

I believe this can only be the new Chinese Food Delivery Service, like Grub-Hub. It's called, 'Ping's Wings'. How do I know this? Sorry, you're not allowed to know.

And the Babylon Bee's take on this :
https://babylonbee.com/news/chinese-launch-spy-balloon-aimed-at-unraveling-the-secrets-of-classified-fork-technology

I've heard reports that there are more balloons over Hawaii and Guam. 

This is starting to sound like a familiar tune in a different key.

(https://i.scdn.co/image/ab67616d0000b2738138fec2ac43457922a025e4)

Anyone have any idea what the payload capacity of such a balloon is?  Just saw an article suggesting this may be a dry run for an EMP-type attack.

Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2023, 04:03:27 PMThis is starting to sound like a familiar tune in a different key.

Seriously, right?

Quote from: steve58 on February 03, 2023, 04:15:20 PMAnyone have any idea what the payload capacity of such a balloon is?  Just saw an article suggesting this may be a dry run for an EMP-type attack.

I heard that as well from my news sources.  Trying to cross reference to major news sources but can't seem to find anything. 

^EMP scares me. Do you have a link, Steve?

Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2023, 04:20:08 PM^EMP scares me. Do you have a link, Steve?

This is the article I saw:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/dry-run-balloons-called-top-delivery-platform-for-nuclear-emp-attack/ar-AA174OkJ

and this link includes the paper written by Stuckenberg:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/balloons-called-top-delivery-platform-for-nuclear-emp-attack

^'Jesus Christ...China'

so maybe Roswell was a russian spy balloon.  :magnify:

From behind the Epoch Times paywall. (Note that they have Chinese ex-pats who are VERY anti-CCP, for good reason but keep potential bias in mind.)

QuoteThe Chinese surveillance balloon that floated over U.S. airspace is maneuverable and is currently in the central United States, a top Pentagon official told reporters on Feb. 3.

The balloon, which had hovered over the state of Montana where nuclear silos are housed, has a "large payload underneath the surveillance component" of the balloon, according to Defense Department spokesperson Brigadier General Pat Ryder.

It is currently heading eastward at an altitude of about 60,000 feet, Ryder said, adding that he expects the balloon's continued presence in the United States over the next few days.

He didn't provide a specific location of the balloon, saying that it's changing by the hour.

"We know the balloon has violated U.S. airspace and international law, which is unacceptable," Ryder said in a press briefing. "We have conveyed this directly to the PRC at multiple levels, and in terms of specific locations I will not be able to go into specific locations other than to say it is moving eastward at this time," he said, using the acronym of the People's Republic of China.

He said the balloon is "maneuverable" and "has changed its course, which is why we are monitoring it," but refused to go into the timing of such change or how the Pentagon has been tracking it, when pressed by reporters.

"We know this is a Chinese balloon and it has the ability to maneuver," Ryder said. "We assess the balloon does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground. We will continue to monitor and review options."

The balloon flew from China, then to the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, and through northwest Canada before arriving somewhere in Montana on Wednesday, according to reports.

The balloon has a surveillance device underneath "large enough to be concerning if there were a debris field," according to Ryder. He said his department is monitoring the balloon "closely" and reviewing options.

The Pentagon previously said it considered shooting down the balloon but eventually decided against the idea due to the potential risk for civilians on the ground posed by the debris.

Ryder declined to say whether such action is still under consideration, maintaining that this is classified information.

A defense official also said the Pentagon had assessed that the balloon has "limited" value in terms of providing intelligence it couldn't obtain by other technologies, such as spy satellites. The Pentagon also put in place unspecified mitigation measures, the official said.

It remains unclear how much or what sensitive information the balloon has gathered. The Chinese regime on Friday claimed the device is a civilian balloon doing meteorological research that had "deviated far from its planned course" due to forces beyond its control.

"Once the balloon was detected, we acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information," Ryder said.

Earlier on Friday, Washington postponed a planned trip to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in response to the balloon's discovery. President Joe Biden, at a press briefing focused on the U.S. economy on Friday morning, ignored a question about the visit's postponement.

"The presence of this balloon in our airspace is a clear violation of our sovereignty as well as international law, and it is unacceptable that this has occurred," a senior State Department official told reporters.

Ryder, when asked about Beijing's statement, reiterated the same position.

"We are aware of the PRC statement. The fact is we know it is a surveillance balloon," he said. "We know the balloon has violated U.S. airspace and international law, which is unacceptable. we have conveyed this directly to the PRC at multiple levels."

{Author Eva Fu "is a New York-based writer for The Epoch Times focusing on U.S. politics, U.S.-China relations, religious freedom, and human rights."}

Aphoto caption: "A high altitude balloon floats over Billings, Mont., on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023. The U.S. is tracking a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that has been spotted over U.S. airspace for a couple days, but the Pentagon decided not to shoot it down due to risks of harm for people on the ground, officials said Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023. The Pentagon would not confirm that the balloon in the photo was the surveillance balloon. (Larry Mayer/The Billings Gazette via AP)"

Now, the most concerning part of that article to me (the author doesn't comment on it, it isn't that type of article, just reporting known statements and facts), is:

"The balloon, which had hovered over the state of Montana where nuclear silos are housed, has a "large payload underneath the surveillance component" of the balloon, according to Defense Department spokesperson Brigadier General Pat Ryder."

This is the last time the "large payload" is mentioned. The surveillance component is (supposedly) large enough to risk a debris field if the balloon is shot, but what's below that component is relatively a "large" "payload" -- two words that do not bode well together in Defense Department contexts.

Does 'payload' automatically mean 'weapon'?

I believe scientists/researchers also use the term 'payload', so no, not automatically weapon(s)...in this case  :undecided:

Eek:

pay·load
/ˈpāˌlōd/
Learn to pronounce
See definitions in:
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Aviation
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noun
1.
the part of a vehicle's load, especially an aircraft's, from which revenue is derived; passengers and cargo.
2.
an explosive warhead carried by a missile.

Quote from: steve58 on February 03, 2023, 05:12:57 PMI believe scientists/researchers also use the term 'payload', so no, not automatically weapon(s)...in this case  :undecided:

True, which is why I qualified that with the context OF THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT. What's the other payload, hanging below the sensor suite (thus theoretically in the way of the sensors)? Normally I'd guess that's the small pump motor (and maybe heater) for adjusting the altitude by adjusting the gas. Why not say that? And why would that be below the sensor package?

(If it turns out to be the body of a little Chinese man painted green.... ;)

so Gus would be a small payload.  :planepilot:

it isn't to high for an F-15 or F-22 to get a gun kill on it.

^Some of the news outlets said it was too high to shoot down with an F-15 or F-22 but I trust you all more than news outlets.

And yes I am a small payload in all respects. Almost. :darthmaulslightsaber:

...that particular icon disturbs me in that context...

Maybe this is revenge for us raiding their New York "police" offices twice last year? They had to shut down the office this week.

QuoteA covert overseas police station run by the Chinese regime in New York has been shuttered following a reported raid by the FBI.

"The FBI has confirmed that the 'overseas police station' in New York linked to Fuzhou has closed," a State Department spokesperson said in an email to The Epoch Times.

"We continue to be concerned about PRC [People's Republic of China] transnational repression efforts around the world and are also coordinating with allies and partners on this issue."

The closure of the facility in New York's Chinatown comes just weeks after The New York Times reported that FBI agents raided and searched the building at an undisclosed time last fall.

The facility and more than 100 others like it form a network of covert facilities from which experts believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is conducting a campaign of transnational repression.

According to two reports published in October 2022 and December 2022 by Safeguard Defenders, a nonprofit organization, the overseas police outposts are used to collect intelligence and even forcibly repatriate Chinese dissidents to the mainland to be imprisoned.

"We are aware of reports regarding alleged PRC 'overseas police stations,'" the State Department spokesperson said.

"We take this issue very seriously. Establishing so-called overseas police stations without the invitation or approval of the country in which they are operating raises serious issues of respect for the sovereignty of that country."

The spokesperson referred The Epoch Times to the FBI and Justice Department for further information. The Justice Department didn't respond to a request for comment by press time, and the FBI declined to comment on the matter.

Chinese authorities maintain that the facilities, which operate in 53 nations, assist Chinese immigrants in foreign nations with tasks that would normally be handled by a consulate, such as renewing driver's licenses and visas.

However, the stations have been linked to the CCP's United Front Work Department, an agency that works to advance the regime's interests abroad by spreading propaganda, conducting foreign influence operations, suppressing dissident movements, gathering intelligence, and facilitating the transfer of technology to communist China.

As such, many nations have voiced concern that the facilities are a threat to national security and a violation of sovereignty.

Irish, Canadian, and Dutch officials have called for China to shut down similar police operations in their countries. Likewise, FBI Director Christopher Wray has characterized them as a violation of U.S. sovereignty.

"I'm very concerned about this," Wray said during a November 2022 hearing of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

"I have to be careful about discussing our specific investigative work, but to me, it is outrageous to think that the Chinese police would attempt to set up shop—you know, in New York, let's say—without proper coordination. It violates sovereignty and circumvents standard judicial and law enforcement cooperation processes."

He refrained at the time from commenting on the legality of the overseas police stations but said they were part of the CCP's campaign of global transnational repression and linked them to CCP efforts to spy on Americans.

"The reason this is so important is because we have seen a clear pattern of the Chinese government, the Chinese Communist Party, exporting their repression right here into the U.S.," Wray said.

"We have seen plenty of situations ... where the Chinese government, under the pretext of going after corruption, have essentially used that as a vehicle to surveil. We've had situations where they've planted bugs inside Americans' cars."

There are three other similar facilities in the United States operating in New York and Los Angeles, according to Safeguard Defenders. It's unclear if they also have been a target of the FBI.

Note: probably not, but this is another example of the CCP doing suspicious things on our territory.

Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2023, 05:40:48 PM^Some of the news outlets said it was too high to shoot down with an F-15 or F-22 but I trust you all more than news outlets.

Ive heard that for whatever reason it cant be hit with a missile.  however the F-15 has a service ceiling of 65k feet so it could possibly get a gun kill.  publicly the F-22 is rated at 55k feet but I suspect its at least as capable at the F-15.

for the giggles I looked up the Streak Eagle project.  a stripped down F-15 got to 103k after a full burn climb in under 4 minutes.

so how far would a 20mm shell go from 65k feet up?

Just a few holes in it would sink it...eventually.  :bangbang:

kinda hard to leave just "a few holes" with a Vulcan.
easy to leave lots.

Would a Blackbird flying by it at Mach 3 cause problems for its structural integrity?
 :planepilot:

Can't be targeted with a heat-seeking missile; can't be targeted with a radar-guided missile (the software is programmed to ignore things like clouds, which the balloon would resemble in behavior.) A laser-guided missile should work, but that doesn't seem to be in our.... cough... payloads. ;)

When I got back from dinner a few minutes ago, the news was saying it's over (or has passed) Cape Girardeau (which I can never spell, not being French), on its way toward Memphis generally. So it'll be floating over or near me in West TN tonight.

If it sets off the New Madrid faultline somehow, I won't be able to let anyone know, but I'm sure you'll hear about it anyway.  :HideEyes:

(More likely, some of my countrymen here or in West KY will consider bringing it down to be a worthy challenge!)

103k feet for an F15...wow! That's like space shuttle territory.

Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2023, 08:36:42 PM103k feet for an F15...wow! That's like space shuttle territory.

That's only 19.5 miles.  Only 40% of the way to space.  Alan Shepard's sub-orbital flight max'd out at 116 miles altitude.

Yeah, the ISS is like 225 miles up.

Yeah but Alan Shephard, as you said, was sub-orbital!

My sources tell me that there was in fact a second Chinese balloon and they were supposed to link-up and form a giant buttocks to float across America. With the letters, 'FU' painted on them. Well that's what they told me.   :jawdrop:

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 03, 2023, 10:57:44 PMMy sources tell me that there was in fact a second Chinese balloon and they were supposed to link-up and form a giant buttocks to float across America. With the letters, 'FU' painted on them. Well that's what they told me.   :jawdrop:

Apparently there is another, but its Latinxo

QuoteThe U.S. government says another Chinese spy balloon is traveling over Latin America.

"We are seeing reports of a balloon transiting Latin America," Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesperson, told Fox News Friday night. "We now assess it is another Chinese surveillance balloon."

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pentagon-another-chinese-spy-balloon-traveling-over-latin-america

A little more gist for the intelligence mill: According to pilot reports, the balloon was flying at 50,000 feet near Kansas City (Incidentally, that would put it invic Fort Leavenworth).  So it is flying much lower than I thought it was, and is within the reach of F-15.  "Guns, Guns, Guns....."  https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article272085162.html

The balloon would make a wonderful delivery platform for chemical or biological agents. Also, during WWII the Japanese floated paper balloons from Japan over to the Pacific NW with incendiary devices attached in an attempt to set the forests on fire. A few actually made it and some were recovered.

The balloons necessarily change altitude a lot (whether by computer, or by direct signal), in order to follow general paths, according to changing weather conditions.

The main one, by the way, could have changed direction overnight to cross West TN more directly, heading for a sensitive site in Georgia which would confirm a trifecta intentional visit (though for what purposes would not be clear) over certain related sites. 3 hours ago it was over Fairview NC.

So this projection from last night doesn't seem anywhere near correct:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoEDEGGXEAIvx2u?format=jpg&name=small)

But this projection from yesterday earlier looks spot-on for the win:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoEAyTUXwAACcXb?format=png&name=small)

Quote from: solops on February 04, 2023, 10:06:33 AMThe balloon would make a wonderful delivery platform for chemical or biological agents. Also, during WWII the Japanese floated paper balloons from Japan over to the Pacific NW with incendiary devices attached in an attempt to set the forests on fire. A few actually made it and some were recovered.

While I knew that, I learned from someone's twitter thread posted earlier (the Brynn one?) that a few people actually died from those incendiaries although our government hushed it up.

http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-110hhrg45133/pdf/CHRG-110hhrg45133.pdf

The short version is that 90% of US urban population would die from indirect results of an EMP stratosphere attack over the central US (e.g. Nebraska). Only 80% mortality in rural areas.  :ThumbsUp:  :HideEyes:

(Hat-tip to the Epoch Times for linking to the docs.)

The balloons we've been seeing wouldn't be high enough for one EMP to zorch the grid, but of course they're sending several around.

So now maybe US is going to shoot the balloon down...over the Atlantic.

QuoteThe U.S. is considering a plan to shoot down the Chinese spy balloon once it crosses over the Atlantic Ocean, where it could fall without causing harm to anyone below and potentially be recovered, a senior U.S. official told Fox News.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-weighing-decision-shoot-down-chinese-spy-balloon-atlantic-ocean-official-tells-fox-news

USAF F-22s FRANK01 & 02 launched from Langley AFB, VA joining up with KC-135R #AE04B3 57-1473 GASMN02 for aerial refueling.
The FAA has published *RESTRICTED AIRSPACE to 60,000 feet* for parts of the Carolinas and is "pausing departures" to Wilmington, Myrtle Beach, and Charleston airports "to support the Department of Defense in a national security effort." More to come.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoJH2UCagAAMlGF?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoJELj_XEAQXFG9?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

The NCA is acting like a bunch of Keystone Cops.  We could have shot it down in the Bearing Strait, over Alaska, or over Canada before it accomplished anything and then collected the debris for analysis and embarrassing the PRC, and sending them the bill for our expenses.    Instead, we let it drift over the US doing collection (which is, I am sure, uplinked Real Time) and embarrassing us in front of the whole world.    Only after the NCA has proven beyond all doubt what a bunch of clowns they are, do they even begin to act like they might shoot it down.  Probably not even then, as the EPA won't have yet done an analysis on the projected impact on the humpback whale population off Cape Fear.....

One more thought: After watching this $hit show of national security navel gazing, who has confidence this group of yahoos would go toe-to-toe with the PLAN over Taiwan?  Of course that may have been the entire point of the exercise.....

One more thought: What is the back up plan if the PRC orders this to 100,000 feet once it goes feet wet?

duplicate post.

...and down she goes.

(https://a57.foxnews.com/hp.foxnews.com/images/2023/02/1024/427/dc103232c08686975e50f2533c1db9a7.png?tl=1&ve=1)

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-weighing-decision-shoot-down-chinese-spy-balloon-atlantic-ocean-official-tells-fox-news

The Red Zeppelin is down!

Took it down with a missile shot:

(https://a57.foxnews.com/hp.foxnews.com/images/2023/02/1024/427/cb150e02725e0c01af3df2c392acd96c.gif?tl=1&ve=1)

Hey man...nice shot  :ninjameditate:

QuoteThe shootdown came after President Joe Biden earlier on Saturday broke the silence on the balloon, telling reporters that "we're gonna take care of it."

In a statement that shortly followed, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Biden gave the go-ahead on Wednesday to "take down the surveillance balloon as soon as the mission could be accomplished without undue risk to American lives under the balloon's path."

He added that the balloon was being used by Beijing "in an attempt to surveil strategic sites in the continental United States."

After "careful analysis," Austin said they ruled out the possibility of downing the balloon over land "due to the size and altitude of the balloon and its surveillance payload," which would pose an "undue risk to people across a wide area."

The U.S. fighter aircraft assigned to U.S. Northern Command brought down the balloon over the water off the South Carolina coast, and the action was taken in coordination with the Canadian government, the statement said.

"Today's deliberate and lawful action demonstrates that President Biden and his national security team will always put the safety and security of the American people first while responding effectively to the PRC's unacceptable violation of our sovereignty," he said, using the acronym for the People's Republic of China.

The "Mission Accomplished" memes should be epic.

"Sir, polls show that after this exponentially accelerating document scandal, people are even more likely to think you are cooperating with China against the US!"
"Well, THIS will show... show... y'know, the thing!"

I for one would like to thank George Santos for taking time out of his busy schedule to shoot this balloon down.

(https://media.townhall.com/cdn/hodl/cartoons/gv020423dAPR-800x0.jpg)

^Oh snap  :TimeOut:

Debris of the balloon is in fairly shallow waters. Be interesting if we hear anything further about its capabilities...assuming the US just doesn't return what's left to the ChiComms.

QuoteThe balloon was spotted Saturday morning over the Carolinas as it approached the Atlantic coast. At about 2:40 p.m. EST, an F-22 fighter jet fired a missile at the balloon, puncturing it while it was about 6 nautical miles off the coast near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, senior defense officials said.

The debris landed in 47 feet of water, shallower than they had expected. Still, it was not immediately clear how long the recovery would take. The Navy is taking the lead, supported by the Coast Guard.

https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-government-china-antony-blinken-51e49202f2a0a50541cde059934c4cfb

This will make a great movie in 6 months.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoJf6ZcXgAA2gac?format=png&name=medium)

I do kind of like how it played out.

I hear it was actually a Valentine's Day present for Eric Swalwell from his old girl Fang Fang. "From China With Love".  :present:  :kiss:

Now that the balloon has been shot down 12 miles off the US seaboard, here is something to ponder: We just shot down an airborne PRC surveillance platform in our territorial waters.  Would the PRC use this to justify doing something similar to one of our aircraft in the South China Sea, substantial portions of which they claim are territorial waters? (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea).  Aside from embarrassing the US, could this have been one of the points of this otherwise pointless exercise?  I'm actually surprised the PRC didn't add to the US humiliation by having the balloon climb to 100,000 over South Carolina, and then sail untouched into the Atlantic.  They kept it nice and low so we could shoot it down, and we obliged by doing so over territorial waters, vice US land mass.  I'm not saying that such an event (a shoot down of a US surveillance drone or aircraft) is in the offing.  I'm just saying that such scenarios are likely being discussed in China.  {note: I am not saying that this would be a good legal justification for an attack on a US platform.  What I am saying is that the PRC may be laying the groundwork for such an operation, and trying to establish some legal precedent (albeit very weak) for such an action)

They definitely have a habit of coming up with angulated justifications of things, including in how they build and use territorial water claims. Taiwan's waters are necessarily claimed, of course, so...!  :knuppel2:

Meanwhile, in case anyone was wondering whether they did anything similar during the prior administration, as an anonymous source is claiming to some media outlets, to wit:

QuoteA top Defense official, who was not identified, said Saturday that the Chinese regime's "surveillance balloons transited the continental United States briefly at least three times during the prior administration and once that we know of at the beginning of this administration, but never for this duration of time," according to a transcript released by the Pentagon.

"We spoke directly with Chinese officials through multiple channels, but rather than address their intrusion into our airspace, the [Chinese regime] put out an explanation that lacked any credibility," the official said.

Here's a link to the public transcript of that meeting: https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3288618/senior-defense-official-and-senior-military-official-hold-an-off-camera-on-back/

Trump says definitely not, but aside from the possibility he's lying, he might just not have been told (or was told but was distracted by tweeting or whatever).

But senior admins at the time agree:

QuoteMark Esper, who served under Trump as secretary of defense, refuted claims about balloons flying over the United States under the previous administration.

"I don't ever recall somebody coming into my office or reading anything that the Chinese had a surveillance balloon above the United States," he told CNN. "I would remember that for sure."

John Bolton, a former U.S. national security adviser under Trump, said that he never heard of any spy balloons entering U.S. airspace or hovering over U.S. territory while Trump was in office. Bolton, also a Bush administration official when he was in office, also said that he never heard of anything like this happening before he joined the Trump administration in 2018.

"I don't know of any balloon flights by any power over the United States during my tenure, and I'd never heard of any of that occurring before I joined in 2018," Bolton told Fox News on Sunday. "I haven't heard of anything that occurred after I left either."

Responding to claims made over the weekend, Bolton said that the current administration needs to "tell Congress" about any "specific examples." He added that "I can say with 100 percent certainty not during my tenure."

"Unequivocally, I have never been briefed on the issue," added Robert O'Brien, who served as White House national security adviser under Trump. "It never came up," he said. "If a balloon had come up, we would have known. Someone in the intelligence community would have known, and it would have bubbled up to me to brief the president," former acting Director of National Intelligence Ric Grenell told Fox.

"It's not true. I can refute it," former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe also said. "The American people can refute it for themselves. Do you remember during the Trump administration, when photographers on the ground and commercial airline pilots were talking about a spy balloon over the United States that people could look up and see, even with the naked eye, and that a media that hated Donald Trump wasn't reporting?"

Leaving aside the necessarily political slant of the claim and counterclaims in the media, the original transcript asserts this only happened briefly over US territory, not like this balloon, so in any case there's a huge qualitative and quantitative difference. If some such balloon grazed our borders a few times going back into the Obama administration, would we have shot it down or even bothered making a public deal about it?

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 04, 2023, 04:19:12 PMI for one would like to thank George Santos for taking time out of his busy schedule to shoot this balloon down.

I chortled way too hard at that! Well played.

So?  Is balloon-busting going to make a comeback?  Should we start re-equipping pilots with flare guns?

dont worry we are still some 90something  ballons short of a war ;-)

Screenshot_20230205_155614_Brave.jpg

Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on February 05, 2023, 06:45:55 PMSo?  Is balloon-busting going to make a comeback?  Should we start re-equipping pilots with flare guns?

The call signs of the two F-22s that did the engagement were "Luke 1" and "Luke 2", after Frank Luke, the WWI Balloon Buster. 

Gordan Chaing was on Fox yesterday and was saying this maybe a case of internal turmoil among Chinese leadership depending on who gave the go-ahead for this operation. He said it's possible the leadership of the PLA did this without consent from Ping as a way to establish their independence from his control. Also perhaps this could be a way to distract the Chinese people from recent domestic discontent concerning the Economy and Covid Lockdowns and gain support for the government. Who knows?

Japanese news reports showed videos of a balloon that looked exactly the same, that was hanging around Sendai on the Japanese mainland three years ago.

Apparently China has been sending them all over the place in the last three years.

https://www.ft.com/content/8a2c77c3-58cc-471d-a187-1823faa4f1b6 (https://www.ft.com/content/8a2c77c3-58cc-471d-a187-1823faa4f1b6)

"Begun The Balloon Wars have".  :tie1:

What I find almost comical in this whole thing is we live in a day and age where a satellite can look down from space and tell you if someone brushed their teeth this morning or not.  Why the balloons?

It's like kids at a playground taunting each other with their childish toys.  Balloons over countries.  Really now?

In any case, anything that violates your airspace should be shot down immediately.  Scan for lifeforms first but otherwise shoot to destroy. 

^ This is what flamethrowers on the F-111 Aardvarks were for.

(...okay, primitive afterburners, but same thing really.)

Quote from: W8taminute on February 06, 2023, 11:56:21 AMWhat I find almost comical in this whole thing is we live in a day and age where a satellite can look down from space and tell you if someone brushed their teeth this morning or not.  Why the balloons?

It's like kids at a playground taunting each other with their childish toys.  Balloons over countries.  Really now?

In any case, anything that violates your airspace should be shot down immediately.  Scan for lifeforms first but otherwise shoot to destroy. 

Who knows really. But it may be as simple as the balloon as a platform is more flexible and cheaper.

My experience with space going equipment is very limited, but I can imagine that configuring sensors to be deployed by rocket is a very complex endeavor; probably plenty of compromises and expensive hardware changes.

Heck, even if you want to put a sensor in an aircraft, there are numerous hardware compromises and aircraft configuration changes that have to be made.

I imagine that hanging sensors from a balloon is more forgiving, and easier to deploy. Not to mention much cheaper. 

This leads to a technical question that I don't know the answer to, but other Grogs might: the military (or at least the administration) claims on one hand that they neutralized its intelligence gathering capabilities; but on the other hand, they clearly didn't stop it from adjusting height to navigate the wind currents. How could that be possible?

My guess would be the height adjustments were run by an onboard computer receiving signals about local and projected air-current conditions.

Meanwhile, back to the developing story (or non-story or pseudo-story or.... gosh, or whatever it is  :buck2: ) concerning the reputed three prior times Chinese sensor balloons went over the nation during Trump's era:

According to the original transcript (here's a link to it again for convenience https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3288618/senior-defense-official-and-senior-military-official-hold-an-off-camera-on-back/), three surveillance balloons from the Chinese government briefly transited the continental United States during the Trump administration, and no one did anything about it at the time (with the current political deployment of this claim being 'so why bother getting worked up about us doing nothing about it this time?')

"Transited" means the objects entered and departed from our territory, and "continental US" means it was the lower 48 states and implies over land not (only) over territorial waters.

Then, as I linked to reports above, tons of former administration folks started replying (by paraphrase) "NOPE!" or at least "I never heard of such a thing, and I'd have been told about it or would certainly have heard about it." Since then they've been comparing notes with each other, still nothing.

So the story has changed somewhat. Now the Biden administration has clarified that nobody noticed those three times: not only no civilians (in the air or on the ground), but also no one in the military or related services.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-decision-to-delay-shootdown-of-chinese-balloon-questioned-11675616189?mod=hp_lead_pos2

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chinese-spy-balloons-over-us-during-trump-admin-discovered-after-he-left-office-senior-biden-official?intcmp=tw_pols

The 'senior administration officials' talking to the WSJ said that the transits were so brief (or more literally that their flights were so short, which couldn't possibly be true in order to reach the continental US at all, or even Alaska, from China), that this (my bolds): "possibly explain[ed] why some went undetected at the time". Some of the three, hm? Not all of the three? So one or two were detected? That still didn't track with the multiform denials.

Thus a senior administration official ("ASOL" as Tom Clancy used to wryly abbreviate it) told Fox News,  "This information was discovered after the [Trump] administration left." Only then, the official said, did the Biden administration piece it all together and realize that the Chinese had been sending massive balloons over the U.S., and nobody, citizen or military intelligence, noticed.

So where did these balloons briefly transit the continental US without anyone in any services noticing, until information was pieced together after the new administration arrived? The Washington Post reveals: "near Texas and Florida". https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/05/china-spy-balloon-gop/

(That's behind a paywall, sorry. I'm referring to an opinion piece providing links.)

"The Defense Department was not specific about where in each state the previous incursions occurred," the WaPo reports, citing Rep. Michael Waltz, a Republican on the House Armed Services Committee. "[Waltz] added that officials did not say whether the balloons made it into U.S. airspace, which extends 12 nautical miles from the shore, or over U.S. territory, too."

The original op-ed article at the Washington Examiner can be found here: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-chinese-balloon-story-is-even-bigger-than-it-seems?utm_source=msn&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=msn_feed

There's been chatter about high alt balloons being used for EMP delivery as well.  Could be a case of brinksmanship. 

https://stratocat.com.ar/stratopedia/11.htm (https://stratocat.com.ar/stratopedia/11.htm)

I've heard the same chatter SDR regarding balloons and EMP delivery system.

https://marfooglenews.com/2023/02/03/23098/


Again isn't it funny that people are going around saying balloons have been spying on countries since the beginning of time.  Finger pointing, blaming other administrations, excuses, instead of acting immediately and decisively.  Does anyone remember what happened to that US airfoce surveillance plane that was forced to land in mainland china in the late nineties or was it around 2000?  The Chinese made a big deal of it yelling loudly for all the world to hear.  They even inspected the plane and no doubt learned a thing or two about our tech.  And we did nothing. 

Why is it ok for some countries to literally get away with murder and not for others? 

Forgive me but something stinks about this whole affair.

Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on February 06, 2023, 02:05:47 PMThere's been chatter about high alt balloons being used for EMP delivery as well.  Could be a case of brinksmanship. 

https://stratocat.com.ar/stratopedia/11.htm (https://stratocat.com.ar/stratopedia/11.htm)

I've heard the same...and toss in using the balloons as bio-weapon and drone deployment platforms.  :tickedoff:

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Foffthepress.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F02%2FBIDEN-GIF.gif&hash=84319aa590b0658a4d64867a829982b13640ba5e)

...scuse me while I go clean the soda off my monitor.

 :ROFL:  They must've gotten the idea from, "The Prisoner", Rover the balloon monster-thing that always got No. 6 back to the Village.

I immediately thought of Rover, too!

I saw confirmation this evening that what tracked the balloon were U2s. There's probably a musical pun or video to be made there somewhere...

Meanwhile, from an Epoch Times article a few minutes ago:

QuoteChinese state-owned television aired footage of a high-altitude balloon dropping hypersonic weapons in 2018.

The stunning footage displays a high-altitude balloon, not dissimilar from the one that traversed over the United States last week, carrying three hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) into high altitude and dropping them for testing.

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported on the weapons test in September 2018. The footage has since been deleted from Chinese media, but photographs and short clips can still be found online.

In one post from 2018, a Twitter user shared footage from Douyin, China's version of TikTok, which shows the balloon lifting the three HGVs from the ground.

HGVs are generally launched by rockets in a similar manner to traditional missiles. Upon reaching orbit, however, HGVs detach from the rocket and fly through the atmosphere using their own momentum.

Such weapons are much faster than other missiles while they are in low orbit, but become much slower upon hitting the dense air of the atmosphere as they have no jets to power them. The three HGVs dropped by the balloon in the footage appear to have been designed to test this phenomenon.

The balloon-dropped HGVs were part of an effort to develop precision warheads for hypersonic weapons, which would give the Chinese military an "unstoppable nuclear-capable weapon," according to the South China Morning Post.

Paul Crespo, president of the Center for American Defense Studies, said that the balloon which traversed U.S. airspace this week could "absolutely" be a dry run for an attack using a balloon-mounted weapon, but that hypersonic missiles would likely not be a first choice for China's communist regime.

"While China has tested hypersonic missiles launched from balloons in the past, that isn't a likely use for these airships," Crespo told The Epoch Times in an email. "The biggest threat is sending one or more of these high altitude balloons over the U.S. with a small nuclear EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) device."

"Detonated at extremely high altitude, they could knock out power and communications across the US, wreaking widespread havoc for a year or more without firing a shot on the ground."

Though Crespo did not believe that balloon-dropped hypersonics would be the next big thing in a nuclear conflict, the HGVs dropped in the footage may well have contributed to the development of the hypersonic weapon system secretly tested by China in 2021.

That system, then-Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. John Hyten said, appeared to be intended for a "first-use" nuclear strike against the United States.

"They look like a first-use weapon," Hyten said.

"The pace [China is] moving and the trajectory that they're on will surpass Russia and the United States if we don't do something to change it."

Communist China is not alone in developing novel ways to use high-altitude balloons as weapons of war.

The United States has researched and tested the use of such balloons for deploying swarms of explosive-laden suicide drones since at least 2018.

The Pentagon is also investing tens of millions of dollars into high-altitude balloons that it intends to use for surveillance and, notably, hopes to use to track the CCP's hypersonic arsenal.

The Epoch Times has requested comment from the White House and Pentagon.

(Andrew Thornebrooke reporting)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoZBtjtaMAkJ9SS?format=jpg&name=small)

The eventual F-22 should have goggles and an aviator cap, and a bushy tail.

As if things aren't Badenov already.  :grin:

This Newsweek article (which is partly an op-ed, as might be expected), argues from the saga's details so far that China's leadership regards itself as embarrassed by the balloon incident, which at least key parts of the upper government didn't expect to happen even though there was obvious intentionality in the craft's behavior.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-the-chinese-spy-balloon-is-a-huge-embarrassment-for-beijing/ar-AA17eEvA?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=9747b03c817141d2a69ecadeaf8f2d5a

Quote from: JasonPratt on February 08, 2023, 09:51:52 AMthat China's leadership regards itself as embarrassed by the balloon incident

If there's one thing they should be ashamed of, it's their choice of camouflage color for the balloon  :uglystupid2: .

It's camouflaged as a weather balloon!  :Nerd:

....or as the bottom of AOC's "Eat The Rich" wealthy ball dress.  :evil:

(Actually, if the CCP had blazoned that communist motto in red English letters across the white surface, I'd give a lot of respect to them on style points at least.)

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 07, 2023, 11:15:03 PMAs if things aren't Badenov already.  :grin:

I saw what you did there  :laugh:

Quote from: W8taminute on February 08, 2023, 11:42:20 AM

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 07, 2023, 11:15:03 PMAs if things aren't Badenov already.  :grin:

I saw what you did there  :laugh:

I'm not disPutin' it, either.

This is the platform the Chinese were testing in 2018 (https://www.ntd.com/chinese-state-tv-showed-balloon-carrying-hypersonic-missiles-in-2018_899572.html).


(https://i.ntd.com/assets/uploads/2023/02/Chinese-balloon-900x506.jpeg)

 :undecided:

ok

whats Darpa playing with?   :evil:

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 08, 2023, 07:37:50 PMok

whats Darpa playing with?   :evil:

Go watch a few of those UAP videos and you'll probably get a partial answer.

The US has been working on similar hypervelocity weapons for about 20 years now.  The program seems to go in fits and starts, but it seems better suited to targeting carriers than any other kind of particular platform.

Blowing up a target on the ground is always a good thing.  But if each missile costs $50,000,000, you'll like have a very short target list...

and the continuing problem for the Chinese is being able to track and target our carriers.  it's really not an easy thing.

Not exactly news, really, but...

QuoteThe Chinese spy balloon that flew over the United States for days before being shot down could monitor communications signals, a U.S. official says.

"High resolution imagery from U-2 flybys revealed that the high-altitude balloon was capable of conducting signals intelligence collection operations," an official with the State Department, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Epoch Times.

"The high altitude balloon's equipment was clearly for intelligence surveillance and inconsistent with the equipment onboard weather balloons. It had multiple antennas to include an array likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications. It was equipped with solar panels large enough to produce the requisite power to operate multiple active intelligence collection sensors," the official added.

Frank Gaffney, executive chairman at the Center for Security Policy, told NTD that China would likely have an interest in monitoring communications between intercontinental ballistic missile silos.

Officials said the balloon entered U.S. airspace over Alaska on Jan. 28. It flew over Canada before re-entering the United States on Jan. 31. President Joe Biden ordered the balloon taken down and it was shot from the sky on Feb. 4. The North American Aerospace Defense Command was tracking the balloon the entire time.

"The United States sent a clear message to the PRC that its violation of our sovereignty was unacceptable by shooting down the balloon, protecting our own sensitive intelligence, and maximizing our ability to track the balloon and recover the payload to get more information on the PRC's program," the State Department official said, adding that the United States would explore taking action against Chinese entities that supported the incursion of U.S. airspace. PRC stands for People's Republic of China.

The balloon is believed to be part of communist China's fleet of balloons developed to conduct surveillance operations, which are typically undertaken at the direction of the People's Liberation Army. The program has been in operation "for several years," a Pentagon spokesman said Wednesday. U.S. officials have since learned that China has flown the surveillance balloons over more than 40 countries across 5 continents, the State Department official said.

The United States is contacting other countries to learn about the scope of the program and other details.

Mao Ning, with China's Foreign Ministry, told reporters in Beijing that the accusations "may be part of the U.S. side's information warfare against China" and claimed that the United States was "overreacting" when it shot the balloon down.

Some U.S. lawmakers have been critical of the decision to wait to bring the craft down until it had flown across multiple states.

An assessment of the risk of intelligence collection was deemed to be low to moderate while the risk to U.S. personnel on the ground if the balloon was shot down was determined to be moderate to significant, prompting officials to advise Biden to wait to bring down the balloon until it was over water, Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during a hearing on Capitol Hill on Thursday.

Melissa Dalton, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs, assured members of Congress that the United States was able to "protect against PRC intelligence collection," saying it was "straightforward because we knew where the balloon was."

The balloon entering the United States "is part of the broader suite of operations that China is undertaking to try and get better understanding of U.S.," Jedidiah Royal, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, told members before being interrupted by Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who asked whether U.S. officials know what intelligence the Chinese were trying to collect.

"We have some very good guesses about that, and we are learning more as we exploit the contents of the balloon and the payload itself," Royal said.

So, confirmation that NORAD was tracking the thing the whole time, and no one pulled the trigger while it was over Alaska or, with permission, over West Canada.

My charitable guess is that they wanted to ensure recovery for study with zero risk to human life, so they planned to shoot it down in recoverable shore area near deployable recovery assets, rather than in or off-shore wilderness areas; and meanwhile practice counter-sigint against it. If they had said so, China might have blown the thing up; not saying so meant not doing anything until people noticed on the ground, and then running out the clock with stalling tactics. To be fair, the State Department's statement, quoted above, kind of says that in diplo-tech-speak.

However, if that had been the plan, the time to say so would have been ten seconds after gun-cam confirmation that the balloon was dead, rather than weak-sounding statements of "we, uh, showed them Chinese that no one can mess with us and we mean businesszzzz...."

Meanwhile, slightly late news on my part (I was at work and shuttling Mom to a clinic checkup until not long ago), but adds weight to the counter-intell-op theory I was floating in my prior post.

(......FLOATING AH HA HA HA HAH haa ha....  :HideEyes:  :embarrassed: )

QuoteMultiple Congressional staffers have confirmed to The Epoch Times that Congressional representatives will be briefed on the morning of Feb. 9 regarding the Chinese spy balloon that flew over the United States last week.

The meeting comes after days of debate between Republicans and Democrats about how the Biden administration addressed the craft and the threat from communist China, more generally.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has pressed for just an all-of-Congress meeting, as confirmed by House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) on Feb. 7.

A message attributed to the GOP conference claims the meeting will take place at 8 a.m. on Thursday, and that it will be bipartisan and members-only. It will be a top secret-sensitive compartmented information (TS-SCI) meeting, according to that same message.

TS-SCI information is highly classified. It contains details on intelligence sources and methods.

The message did not clarify whether the meeting will only include members of the House or will also include members of the Senate.

According to the message, at least five U.S. officials will help brief Congress tomorrow.

Morgan Muir of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence is among them.

In addition, the briefers will include three officials from the Defense Department.

These officials are Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy; Lt. Gen. Douglas A. Sims, director of operations at the J3 level for Joint Staff; and Joint Staff Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of the United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).

Finally, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Dan Kritenbrink will also participate in the morning briefing.

The Biden administration has defended its decision to take down the balloon on Saturday after it had floated over Alaska's Aleutian Islands, parts of Canada, and much of the United States for a week, saying the delay was to avoid possible harm to civilians if the device was shot down over land.

U.S. officials said the military took unspecified mitigation measures to thwart the balloon's data collection, and that the United States was able to use the opportunity of the balloon's week-long flight to conduct counterintelligence.

"We acted responsibly and prudently to protect our interests," said Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a Feb. 8 press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Blinken said the surveillance balloon was part of a broader global Chinese campaign that has violated the sovereignty of countries across five continents.

He added the Biden administration is currently working to recover parts of the fallen balloon, adding that the administration would "share relevant findings with Congress, as well as with our allies and partners around the world."

Earlier on Feb. 8, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder confirmed that new intelligence had allowed the United States to determine at least four previous spy balloon incidents in the United States, three of which occurred during the Trump administration and one during the Biden administration.

In all four incidents, Ryder said, Chinese surveillance balloons had entered the airspace of the continental United States in an apparent effort to spy on "strategic sites."

A staffer for Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the House Intelligence Committee's current chair, confirmed earlier this week that an intelligence-focused "Gang of Eight" in the House and Senate would be briefed on the balloon.

The Epoch Times has reached out to multiple Congressional staffers for additional details.

Andrew Thornebrooke and Eva Fu contributed to this report.

So we'll likely hear some spin-and-poli-jousting leaks from this meeting, which should have happened this morning.

QuoteHowever, if that had been the plan, the time to say so would have been ten seconds after gun-cam confirmation that the balloon was dead

they were saying what the plan was for days.  how did you miss that?

Hate to burst your bubble, see what I did there, but nobody was saying anything from the government that they planned anything but to let it pass over because shooting the balloon down was too great a threat to anyone in the debris field. That's why no news network except for FOX was broadcasting when the balloon went down. Unless of course that is what you meant.

perhaps your news sources weren't covering it.

Neither was this Grogheads thread, evidently.  :kiss:

Unless by "the plan" you only meant the part where they shoot it down over water, which was not all the plan I was talking about.

Come on guys, we're all Americans here in this conversation right now.  The important thing is that we're all able to feel sanctimonious about ourselves, our world view, our own political party, our preferred media outlets, and the struggle for democracy in the free world!

I kinda had forgotten the Cold War Dynamic where we were always losing it as long as the other party's President was in power and we were always winning it when our President was in power.  Except for Jimmy Carter.  Man, was he unpopular by the end of his term!

^Iran didn't help Jimmy Carter either  :undecided:

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 10, 2023, 11:00:52 AMCome on guys, we're all Americans here in this conversation right now.  The important thing is that we're all able to feel sanctimonious about ourselves, our world view, our own political party, our preferred media outlets, and the struggle for democracy in the free world!

FREEEDOMMMM!!  :RockOn:  :Party:  :ThumbsUp:

I'm not even being ironic about that.  :peace:


To be fair, the full plan may have been included in one or more article links posted upthread, which I happened not to read. I don't recall discussing the full plan in the comments, but all the pieces might have been discussed in parts at different times.

I will drink to the Right to be sanctimonious anytime.  :martini:  BTW Sooner, I hope you get over your sinus infection quick, they can be a real bitch.

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 03, 2023, 10:31:15 AMhow much elint data can the air force suck out of this thing?

from the top of page 2.  :cool:

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 10, 2023, 11:43:12 AMI will drink to the Right to be sanctimonious anytime.

obviously

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1623739437774503937?t=WkyvRFDjnkvtzeQj4RXFPA&s=19

so Mitt is satisfied the right thing was done.  meanwhile unhinged marge was screaming profanities at the Pentagon briefers because she's got the iq of a crayon.

But Mitt is a racist remember? Why should we listen to him?  BTW, Clearly political, just saying.  :magnify:

Another balloon?/"high altitude object" shot down over Alaskan waters.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/u-s-military-shoots-down-object-flying-territorial-waters-over-alaska

Quote"much, much smaller than the spy balloon that we took down last Saturday"

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/madelineleesman/2023/02/10/kjp-briefing-n2619427

Nice to see we reacted immediately.

And can hit a smaller object no problem.

Quote from: JasonPratt on February 10, 2023, 03:48:54 PMAnd can hit a smaller object no problem.

This one was apparently much lower, 40,000+ feet.  Wonder if it was another missile shot or guns?

QuoteMost of the debris from the Chinese spy balloon shot down by the U.S. military last week is still lying in the ocean.

The FBI has so far recovered very limited physical evidence from the Chinese surveillance balloon shot down off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4, and senior FBI officials said that the bureau had not yet retrieved enough information from the debris to assess the balloon's capabilities.

"It's very early for us in this process, and the evidence that has been recovered and brought to the FBI is extremely limited," one official said during a Feb. 9 press briefing.

Eric Pokorak, assistant director of the FBI's Laboratory Division, said that was too early in the investigation to determine the intent and capabilities of the balloon.

Pokorak described the debris field as a "large-scale scene" and said that weather conditions "may impact" evidence collection and the transportation of recovered items in the coming days.

Michael Paul, assistant director of the bureau's Operational and Technology Division (OTD), said that the FBI did not have access to most of the airship's payload, where its onboard electronics would have been carried, and that most of the superstructure remained under water.

"We have not seen the payload where we expect to see the lion's share of the electronics," Paul said.

"OTD deployed specialists to assist with screening and to specifically assess electronic components that might be recovered during the operation."

Still, the officials said, agents were working to decontaminate and identify those components that had been recovered, which thus far mostly consist of some wiring and a small amount of electronics.

{snipping past some previous information}

Paul said that the FBI had not found any evidence that this balloon carried {a potential EMP or other offensive} payload, however.

"We have not identified any sort of any energetic or offensive material," he said.

Earlier in the day a State Department spokesperson said that the company responsible for manufacturing the balloons for China's spy program was directly connected to the Chinese military.

The FBI officials said they did not yet have information on where the balloon components were manufactured, but that the evidence when recovered could be used for intelligence purposes or criminal charges.

The "criminal charges" refers to previously released information that an unspecified American manufacturer contributed a lot to the balloon in selling directly to the CCP.

Quote from: steve58 on February 10, 2023, 04:16:02 PM

Quote from: JasonPratt on February 10, 2023, 03:48:54 PMAnd can hit a smaller object no problem.

This one was apparently much lower, 40,000+ feet.  Wonder if it was another missile shot or guns?

Article just came through; excerpted:

QuoteThe United States shot down an unknown flying object off the coast of Alaska on Feb. 10, according to the White House. The move came less than a week after the U.S. military shot down a Chinese spy balloon off the country's east coast.

The object was flying at 40,000 feet and had traveled inside U.S. airspace over territorial waters off the northern coast of Alaska, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said at Friday afternoon press briefing.

An F-22 jet fired a single Sidewinder missile to take down the object at 1:45 p.m. ET, Ryder said. This was the same type of missile used to take down the Chinese spy balloon last weekend.

Earlier in the afternoon, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby confirmed that the Pentagon was tracking a "high-altitude object over Alaska airspace in the last 24 hours."

It was spotted yesterday, and President Joe Biden was briefed on the matter "as soon" as the object was tracked, Kirby said. Biden then ordered its shootdown this morning after the object was assessed as presenting a reasonable threat to the "safety of civilian flight."

"The president will always act in the interests of the American people and national security," he said.

Earlier in the day, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a no-fly warning over Alaska to allow for defense operations, which the FAA has since confirmed was to support the military operation.

Kirby described the device as an "object," saying, "I am not classifying it as a balloon right now," while Ryder said the object was different in size and shape from a balloon.

The object was about the size of a small car, and did not appear to have maneuverable capability, in contrast with last week's Chinese spy balloon that possessed the ability to move independently within the jetstream.

"It did not appear to have the ability to independently maneuver," Kirby said.

Ryder said the object was unmanned, adding he couldn't yet verify the object's speed of travel.

The origin of the object is currently unknown, according to the officials.

"We just don't know what this object was. It would be difficult for me to point to a threat ... when we just don't know what this object was doing," Kirby said.

Ryder confirmed that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has not reached out to the Chinese on this latest incident.

The downed objected landed on frozen water, meaning it'd be easier to recover debris, according to Kirby.

Washington is working to learn more and improve its own detection capabilities, Kirby added.

"I think we're going to continue to learn a lot about how these things are or can be detected in a better way," he said.

So, a Sidewinder missile -- that's heat seeking of course (unless they have laser guidance now) -- against an object with no independent maneuverability. That's weird; not the missile, that's just safe to protect the pilot at standoff distance from the object perhaps exploding. But if it isn't confirmed as a balloon, and if it doesn't have maneuver capability, what was it doing in Alaskan airspace for 24 hours? How did it even stay there?

the Aim-9x is not strictly heat seaking.
I'm wondering why it's the FBI doing the investigation.

Yeah, I've been wondering about that, too. Lord knows there's enough alphabet groups in the US which might have justification, but exactly why them?

My tentative guess is connected with that last bit of the article I quoted: our government has evidently known for some time (not sure how long, but longer than the balloon arrived in the Lower 48) that some company has been selling China hostile tech knowing it will be probably used against the US and our allies, specifically in those balloons. That final phrase "criminal charges" probably tells us why the FBI per se is leading the run: the CIA and NSA (to pull two other plausible investigators for recovery lead) would only be adjuncts to a criminal prosecution.

so the FBI goes the civilian road and DIA and CIA play with the actual tech.

Another balloon shot down over Canada.  Looks like Trudeau gave permission for US aircraft to take it down.  Meanwhile Xi is mocking Biden for using fighter jets to shoot down balloons. 

What a bunch of children running this planet. 

Quote from: W8taminute on February 11, 2023, 09:54:15 PMMeanwhile Xi is mocking Biden for using fighter jets to shoot down balloons. 

Fighter jets are the aerial platform we have for weapons delivery.  What would Xi suggest would be a better alternative?  Passenger jets with slingshots?  Launch an anti-balloon balloon fleet?  Sharks, with freaking laser beams on their heads?  Just an odd thing to focus on.   :twirl:

The FBI's formal mandate includes counterintelligence.  Theoretically, they have "first jurisdiction" over that sort of thing.  Before the intelligence tech got so... technical, there was a very clearly drawn line there.

The CIA spies on the world outside our border, but not inside our border.  From a checks-and-balances standpoint, that makes sense.  That's the domain of the FBI.  It's not something they ever talk about.  Even inside the FBI, nobody in the rank and file really knew anything about that group or what they're doing back when I was a peon walking in the halls of power several decades ago.

In reality, as was alluded to above, the technical competencies required for espionage and counter-espionage create a lot of overlap.  So everybody gets involved.  But if it was a spy satellite floating over the US, that's very correctly FBI jurisdiction.

Quote from: Sigwolf on February 12, 2023, 11:13:24 AM

Quote from: W8taminute on February 11, 2023, 09:54:15 PMMeanwhile Xi is mocking Biden for using fighter jets to shoot down balloons. 

Fighter jets are the aerial platform we have for weapons delivery.  What would Xi suggest would be a better alternative?  Passenger jets with slingshots?  Launch an anti-balloon balloon fleet?  Sharks, with freaking laser beams on their heads?  Just an odd thing to focus on.   :twirl:

Good God!  Does this mean we have... a balloon gap?

Maybe Xi thinks the USAF has Panzer Dragoons.

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 12, 2023, 12:43:41 PM

Quote from: Sigwolf on February 12, 2023, 11:13:24 AM

Quote from: W8taminute on February 11, 2023, 09:54:15 PMMeanwhile Xi is mocking Biden for using fighter jets to shoot down balloons. 

Fighter jets are the aerial platform we have for weapons delivery.  What would Xi suggest would be a better alternative?  Passenger jets with slingshots?  Launch an anti-balloon balloon fleet?  Sharks, with freaking laser beams on their heads?  Just an odd thing to focus on.   :twirl:

Good God!  Does this mean we have... a balloon gap?

Just don't let him in the war room.  He'll see the big board!

a long thread with links about balloons, drones and ufos.

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1624149864178401282

do you see a balloon?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FokwCMlWYAAy7A4?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Better NOT call her that. She probably won't like it. But hell...at closing time???

seems another balloon got shot down over Lake Huron in the last hour.

This is where our rating goes from "harmless" to "mostly harmless." 

All apologies to "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy."

Quote from: MikeGER on February 05, 2023, 06:51:54 PMdont worry we are still some 90something  ballons short of a war ;-)

Four down, 95 to go  :justice:

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2023, 03:13:10 PMdo you see a balloon?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FokwCMlWYAAy7A4?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Hhhhmmm, looks like a Kardashian to me.

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2023, 03:03:13 PMa long thread with links about balloons, drones and ufos.

"We now live in an age where long-range precision-guided weaponry is democratized. Barrier to entry is very low. We are still not prepared to deal with it. So, call all this a big trial balloon." -- heh, well played!

The full (most recent) article from Tyler Rogoway at the War Zone:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40054/adversary-drones-are-spying-on-the-u-s-and-the-pentagon-acts-like-theyre-ufos

Correction: from April 16, 2021, nearly two years ago! Still highly relevant.

Ad/mods: shouldn't the overall title of this thread be updated for clarity? e.g. "Balloons, UAPs, and whatnot recently".


Meanwhile, the actual most recent article from Tyler Rogoway (and Howard Altman) at The War Zone, focusing on the "octagonal" craft shot down over Lake Huron.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/fighters-shoot-down-object-over-lake-huron

Edited to add: the comments are amusing in that they're more about bad calls last night at the Super Bowl than the incursions and shootdowns! {g}

Meh I kinda like 'Surprise!'

So many richer double entendres to be had (my mind keeps coming back to the Kardashians), but that's the sort of thing that's not quite as clever when done with the benefit of hindsight.  If we changed names now, I wouldn't know where to find the dang thread!

Unless somebody could find a nice way to work in the "tit for tat" exchanges that seem to be taking place right now...

Does shooting something down over water make it more likely to retrieve the pieces intact?  Or are they just more worried about damage to real estate and occupants?

I wonder how much those balloons cost, and how much the countermeasures cost?  It kinda boggles my mind that the US used to fly U2s directly over Russian air space during the Cold War.

UK PM announces that they're on standby to shoot down an object over their territory.  Now everyone things these things are part of some extraterrestrial invasion.  Even China claims that they have balloons over their territory.

^wut?? Is today the day?

^I don't know man but the way the news has been flying around twitter and telegram you would think it is the day.

'Oh crap' -Harvey Firestein

(https://media.tenor.com/KiZCyRVc6wYAAAAM/independence-day-film.gif)

so the balloon over Lake Huron needed two Sidewinders to take down because the first missed.
one could say it was bad AIM.   :pirate:

Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2023, 05:02:30 PMDoes 'payload' automatically mean 'weapon'?

Could be books of Quotes from Mao

^heh

seriously though, those damn things could with the payloads could be dropping all sorts of things, avian flu, swine flu, covid, freaking monitoring instruments, the list goes on

If you need me I'll be in my Underground Bunker. The secret knock to get in is....Wait a minute! You're NOT allowed to know that dammit!  :cylonA:

Well, there has been an economically distressing nationwide spike in poultry deaths in the last year from (if I recall correctly) a version of avian flu (which has doubled the price of chicken and eggs in some areas, including my rather rural area despite being in the middle of a Tyson chicken-farming region), which epidemiologists don't seem to know the source of. So... do we have a conspiracy smiley now?

 :magnify:

Quote from: JasonPratt on February 14, 2023, 08:46:15 AMWell, there has been an economically distressing nationwide spike in poultry deaths in the last year from (if I recall correctly) a version of avian flu (which has doubled the price of chicken and eggs in some areas, including my rather rural area despite being in the middle of a Tyson chicken-farming region), which epidemiologists don't seem to know the source of. So... do we have a conspiracy smiley now?

 :magnify:

I think the card for Steve Jackson's Illuminati game is: 

Chinese UFO Balloons 
Power: 1  Resistance: 1 
Alignment: Communist, Weird
+1 to takeover News Network Talking Heads

nvm

Tucker had a great piece on a couple of weeks ago from Chicken Ranchers who reported their hens had completely stopped laying eggs, for months on end. They said it had never happened to them before. However when they stopped using commercial chicken feed like Purina, and began using locally produced feed, the hens went back to laying with a vengeance. Purina gave a statement they were aware of the stories and there was nothing wrong with their feed. It does make you wonder, what's in things we are using?

IIRC Purina, like many feed and pet food brands is owned by Nestle. A mega multi-national with a mixed bag reputation. If something happened to the feed mixture, you'd never hear about it.

and that has what to do with chinese balloons?

Well, we're getting off the thread topic, true; originally we were lightly speculating whether the balloons (which have been deploying here for more than a year, for sure, as per the articles linked above) may be responsible for the catastrophic outbreak of avian flu in our poultry.

This leads back to what I intended to be the followup question to that speculation: how effective would a drift craft (dirigible, balloon etc) or even a drone be at spreading a biological weapons (compared to chemical or nuclear). My rough expectation is, not very? -- if someone was going to do that, there are much more efficient ways?  :huh:

Meanwhile, nothing really new (by our standards) from the National Security Council press conference yesterday, but here's a summary anyway (from Epoch Times again):

QuoteThe White House is confirming that a spy balloon program linked to China's military targeted the United States and its allies for espionage.

Speaking at a Feb. 13 press conference, National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby acknowledged the program, which the United States disclosed for the first time last week.

"China has a high-altitude balloon program for intelligence collection that's connected to the People's Liberation Army," Kirby said.

Kirby said that the Chinese spy balloon program targeted the United States' "closest allies and partners," but provided "limited additive" intelligence collection capabilities. Left unchecked, he said, such continued balloon incursions could present a severe national security threat to the United States.

Since shooting down the Chinese spy balloon off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4, the United States has shot down three more unidentified flying objects, two in U.S. airspace and one in Canadian airspace.

Kirby said that the three new objects were much smaller than the Chinese spy balloon and that the United States was still not sure what they might be.

"There is no question in our minds that that system was designed to surveil, that it was an intelligence asset," Kirby said of the Chinese spy balloon.

"We knew exactly what that thing was. These other three didn't have propulsion, they weren't being maneuvered, they were basically being driven by the wind. We don't know for sure whether they had a surveillance aspect to them but we can't rule it out."

Kirby said that the United States' apparent difficulty in tracking all four objects was owed to the nature of how radar is typically used, and that the nation was enhancing its capabilities based on newly gathered intelligence.

"Slow-moving objects at high altitude with a small radar cross section are difficult to detect on radar, even objects as large as the Chinese spy balloon," Kirby said.

He added that the United States would continue to learn from the events including by collecting the debris of the objects for examination, saying that some of the structure and electronics from the Chinese spy balloon had been recovered from the bottom of the Atlantic over the weekend.

China's balloon surveillance program was first publicly acknowledged by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Feb. 8, when he also acknowledged that the United States was working to provide intelligence to dozens of other countries affected by the regime's espionage efforts.

"We're doing so because the United States is not the only target of the balloon program, which has violated the sovereignty of countries across five continents," Blinken said at the time.

"As to who is responsible for that, China is. It doesn't matter on some level which individuals may or may not have been responsible. The fact is China engaged in this irresponsible action in violation of our sovereignty and territorial integrity and international law."

I should point out that other official analysts (I may have linked to them upthread, or someone did), have stressed that while we suspect that the most recent three shot-down objects came from China, we have no positive evidence for that yet. :magnify:

Blinken isn't denying that, I think, in his statements; he's appealing to other incidents where we can be more sure the craft came from China as part of a Chinese military program.

Relatedly, I don't think I've seen an indication yet that portions of the other three craft have been found? Maybe the Yukon one, not sure.

I for one found it very reassuring yesterday that Admiral Kirby told us it was definitely NOT Aliens or Extraterrestrials they were shooting down.  :stormtrooper2:

I saw an article as well stating that the debris from any of the wreckages has been recovered.  Are they just saying they shot something down or did they really shoot something down?

:tie1:  :twirl:

whatever happened to the balloon over England?

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 14, 2023, 01:17:59 PMand that has what to do with chinese balloons?

I squirreled in response to Pratt's post .... not my fault  :twirl:

I bet this is related to the family where the little boy was trapped up in the hot air balloon and the media followed it live for hours, and when the balloon came down, he was nowhere to be found, and then we found out he'd been hiding in the attic, and then we found out that his mom and dad had told him to hide in the attic so they could get a bunch of news coverage!

I'm sure that the Chinese were behind that, even if I haven't been able to pinpoint the exact chain of causes and effects that made it happen! 

I kind of wonder how much "sky trash" there is floating up in the sky?  I mean, if we have millions of tons of plastic floating in the ocean, might we also just have some old weather balloons floating up in the sky or something?  I have no idea how weather balloons work, really.  This is all pure speculation.  But that seems to be mostly what the media is doing too.

Or maybe this all just a huge advertising campaign for Bloons TD 6 gone horribly wrong?

Bloons TD 6 on Steam (https://store.steampowered.com/app/960090/Bloons_TD_6/)

So far the only wreckage recovered seems to be from the South Carolina impact.

QuoteKey electronics have been recovered from China's surveillance balloon that was shot down off the east coast by the U.S. military on Feb. 4, including sensors that are believed to have been used to gather intelligence, U.S. officials have said.

"Crews have been able to recover significant debris from the site, including all of the priority sensor and electronics pieces identified as well as large sections of the structure," the U.S. Northern Command said in a statement.

I haven't seen more than that yet, but economic sanctions have been thrown onto five Chinese businesses, and one research institute, believed to be providing tech for the craft, preventing U.S. companies from selling products and technologies to the firms without first getting government approval.

QuoteThe blacklisted companies are: Beijing Nanjiang Aerospace Technology; China Electronics Technology Group Corp. 48th Research Institute; Dongguan Lingkong Remote Sensing Technology; Eagles Men Aviation Science and Technology Group and its Shanxi branch; Shanxi Eagles Men Aviation Science and Technology Group; and Guangzhou Tian-Hai-Xiang Aviation Technology.

Beijing Nanjiang Aerospace Technology is a unit of Shanghai-based developer Deluxe Family, which in 2015 signed a contract with state-owned Beihang University, dedicating 480 million yuan ($70.5 million) to making near-space airships. A state brokerage firm at the time praised it as a "classic example of deep civil-military fusion"—the regime's aggressive national strategy compelling civilian Chinese companies to support its military goals—and expressed optimism for the "wide potential for future military application" coming out of the project.

The partnership yielded the country's first military-civilian stratospheric airship, named "Yuanmeng," roughly meaning "a dream fulfilled," in October 2015.

Headquartered in Beijing, Eagles Men Aviation Science and Technology Group makes stealth aircraft, virtual reality training simulators, and autonomous drones and has taken part in about a dozen state military and aerospace projects. Its products have contributed to the security of the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit held in China, as well as a grand military parade in 2015 marking the 70th anniversary of the Sino–Japanese war victory, according to its website.

Guangzhou Tian-Hai-Xiang Aviation Technology, founded by a Chinese veteran who served in the antiaircraft artillery unit, produces armored scout vehicles and aircraft for civilian and military use. It has participated in a naval military drill upon invitation of armed police, deploying military drones to assist coast guard personnel to locate and arrest target ships, its website states.

Dongguan Lingkong Remote Sensing Technology, which has been linked to Beihang University, develops stratospheric airships, public registration information shows.

Meanwhile, Kirby has declared the US is absolutely not flying our own balloons into Chinese airspace: https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/john-kirby-the-u-s-is-not-flying-balloons-over-china-163226181899

Ditto NCS spokesperson Adrienne Watson:

https://twitter.com/NSC_Spox/status/1625105603583418370

https://twitter.com/NSC_Spox/status/1625105964239056897


It should be noted that while China mocks the harmlessness of such balloons, in the CCP's own strategic plans such craft are intended to someday bring "silent terror": https://apnews.com/article/china-us-balloon-political-tensions-house-resolution-73a656c522f96fae20d89a1850dcb721

Quotes above courtesy of Epoch Times again.

This story gets bigger and more bizarre each day.

True. I expect to wake-up any second now because...I mean how much weirder can this dream get? Never again lick toads and chase it with vodka before going to bed.   :martini:   BTW, 'Sky Trash' is my username for my United Airlines account. I probably ought to change this.

Sir Slash: Sky Trash sounds like the name of a film designed as a salute to 1930s serials but infused with a punk rock soundtrack!

Reminder to self: haven't watched Sky Captain or the 80s Flash Gordon recently...

Meanwhile, Newsweek confirms this morning that the other three objects after the Chinese balloon have not been recovered yet -- and that one official leading theory is that "these could be tied to commercial or research entities and benign".

https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRCV00BTLZ

The Newsweek roundup this morning: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/senator-warns-people-to-lock-your-doors-after-classified-hearing-on-ufos/ar-AA17vkFx?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=2586c2ff36cd4f8896d3e3a175663450

Relatedly, Newsweek interviews Guy Gratton, an associate professor of aviation and the environment at Cranfield University in the U.K. : https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/weird-octagonal-shape-of-lake-huron-ufo-explained-by-experts/ar-AA17tWmK?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=33782b16a04e4c3fa83c4ea9c0a426cc

Quote"{An octogon} is quite a sensible shape to make a large gas balloon, as it's structurally efficient, keeping the amount of material needed relatively low, and it's not hard to, say, rotate such a craft for any number of reasons of control or payload alignment."

"It's also the shape a lot of camera equipment using mechanical aperture mechanisms will tend to show small distant objects. So if a camera using mechanical shuttering is seeing something very distant, it might look to be such a shape—when it actually isn't (although clearly it's still seeing something)."

The octagonal structure may also provide streamlining to the object as it travels through the air.

"There are studies of octagonal shaped buildings that seem to have good aerodynamics in terms of wind resistance," Janet Bednarek, an aviation historian at the University of Dayton, Ohio, told Newsweek.

On the other hand, it also may be as a result of deliberate design to capture the imaginations of UFO spotters.

More details from the AP on Kirby's statements about the other balloons being probably benign, plus whether the Chinese balloon had really been intended to traverse North America: https://apnews.com/article/aerial-objects-shot-down-lake-huron-8d60c429b1bf549a791434f8bd1bcc81

Now, personally, I don't believe the North American location is innocent for the first balloon, because even if they meant to send it to Guam and freak weather conditions spun it waaaay off course, the Chinese government made a decision not to sink it unobtrusively in deep Pacific water long before approaching Alaska (and long after it was clearly never going to Guam or wherever): they could control its altitude at the very least, including 0 feet above sea level!

They took the opportunity handed to them, for whatever reasons, and continued to operate the thing.

However, I can understand the realpolitik of spinning things this way to defuse (a few) tensions with China.

The Week passes along a WaPo report (from behind a WaPo paywall) on why missiles were used instead of guns for downing the crafts:

https://theweek.com/us-military/1021008/why-the-us-used-missiles-not-cheap-bullets-to-shoot-down-chinese-balloon-3

My first reaction was that it's silly to think that 20mm cannons would cause 'small' holes in balloons, and that low-pressure atmosphere at high altitudes would hamper almost the lightest elemental gas, helium, from escaping the holes. But apparently, the Canadian, British, and US military discovered exactly this back in 1998! (With an incursion over Russian territory, briefly, being an unintended result of their repeated failures.)

Sir Slash: Sky Trash and the World of Tomorrow?

^^ Could literally be the explanation for a lot of weirdness in recent years!  :Nerd:

Indeed. Weirdness has become so commonplace today that I'm almost ashamed to call myself that anymore. They're taking the damn fun out of it.  :grumpy:

Yeah that weird train left the station and derailed a long time ago.

^ Ha, well-played on the crossthread!

 :Nerd:

According to CBS, the US was tracking the balloon since it lifted off from China. 



BREAKING: CBS News has learned that U.S. intelligence watched the Chinese spy balloon as it lifted off near China's south coast, meaning the U.S. military had been tracking it for nearly a week before it entered U.S. airspace.  https://twitter.com/CBSEveningNews/status/1625654399203786752

So how is it we were tracking it over the Pacific but only now by changing our radar parameters are able to track it/them over North America? Sombody's got some 'splaining to do. My money's on Wakanda.

Ever since they changed their technology to open their force field by jamming on some drums, the world has gone downhill. sigh.

Right. And now they've got Namor pissed at them.  :HideEyes:  I bet they wish they could go back and hide again.

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ufo-shot-down-by-us-jet-may-have-been-dollar12-balloon-says-report

A silver-coated hobby balloon declared "missing in action" is being considered as one of the mysterious, unidentified objects shot down by the U.S. military last week.

The party-style, "pico balloon" that can cost as low as $12 was launched in October last year and was being tracked by the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade (NIBBB) until it abruptly ceased communications, the NIBBB told Aviation Week Thursday.
A day before its disappearance, the balloon reported its last position off the west coast of Alaska. By Feb. 11, it was floating in the vicinity of the Yukon Territory, the same area where the U.S. used a $400,000 missile to shoot down an object containing a similar description.

"I tried contacting our military and the FBI—and just got the runaround—to try to enlighten them on what a lot of these things probably are. And they're going to look not too intelligent to be shooting them down," Ron Meadows, the founder of Scientific Balloon Solutions (SBS), told Aviation Week. A number of government agencies, including the FBI, did not respond to Aviation Week's request for comment.

The balloon, dubbed K9YO, was launched Oct. 10, 2022, and spent 123 days and 18 hours in flight, according to NIBBB. The balloons can cost from $12-180 each depending on the style.

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 15, 2023, 11:03:22 PMRight. And now they've got Namor pissed at them.  :HideEyes:  I bet they wish they could go back and hide again.

Just don't piss off the Silver Surfer.

Quote from: Windigo on February 17, 2023, 11:11:49 AM

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 15, 2023, 11:03:22 PMRight. And now they've got Namor pissed at them.  :HideEyes:  I bet they wish they could go back and hide again.

Just don't piss off the Silver Surfer.

Come to think of it, pissing off any of the original Defenders is a bad idea! (Dr. Strange, Silver Surfer, Submariner, Hulk.)

"Your ability to manipulate power is impressive. But I am power." -- Surfer about to lay down a righteous smiting upon a new Hulk villain of the time

Balloon de jour spotted near Hawaii.

https://www.newsweek.com/pilot-reports-large-white-balloon-floating-near-hawaii-1782282

Reminds me of the ending of the original, 'The Thing' movie where the guy tells everyone, "Keep looking up, keep looking up".  :HideEyes:

Sixth Grader Swears His Science Homework Was Blown Up By A Sidewinder Missile https://babylonbee.com/news/sixth-grader-swears-his-science-homework-was-blown-up-by-a-sidewinder-missile  BRANSON, MO — A young local student was forced to defend his integrity after his science project — a homemade weather balloon designed to collect atmospheric data — was destroyed by a Sidewinder missile fired from a strafing F-22 fighter jet.

"It wasn't my fault, I swear!" said Jared Gingles when questioned about his story. "I built the balloon, I tested it to make sure it worked, and when I was doing the final steps of the assignment, my homework was blown out of the sky by military aircraft."

Though Jared had never been a problem student, his teacher found his outlandish excuse difficult to believe. "I've been a schoolteacher for over 30 years," said Carla Riley. "I've heard just about every excuse there is, but this one about the United States Air Force shooting down a sixth-grade science project really takes the cake."

Despite skepticism from the school's faculty, Jared was adamant that he was telling the truth. "Why would I possibly make up something like that?!" he asked incredulously. "If I was going to make up an excuse for not doing my homework, I would at least make it sound more believable than that!"

At publishing time, Jared had been granted another chance to complete his homework project, though the new assignment — doing a report on a fully functioning food processing plant — was proving somewhat difficult.   :grin:

I believe the 6th Grader.  It was an AIM-9X.  If they're anything like they are in DCS they'll get tone if a hummingbird passes gas.

Sixth-Graders are the new Ninth-Graders. They should be allowed to run for office.

Quote from: Tripoli on February 20, 2023, 12:20:29 PMAt publishing time, Jared had been granted another chance to complete his homework project, though the new assignment — doing a report on a fully functioning food processing plant — was proving somewhat difficult.   :grin:

That was great!

Closeup photo of the Chinese balloon taken by the U-2 pilot

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1628503718164566016

Have they figured out how it was able to maneuver?

yes

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 22, 2023, 11:25:29 PMyes

no

Hard to tell from the pic if it has any maneuverability but it could be done with either a weak propulsion system on the 'payload' structure or by raising and lowering the balloon to different elevations with different prevailing winds using release valves to lower and lifting gas reserves to raise. Could be a combo. Those solar cells should provide enough power to electric motors for very minimal maneuverability. My money's on the changes in elevation since the wind directions at different elevations can be somewhat predictable.

I had no idea how huge the balloon was. For the lack of a graphic in any English article (there must be ones) here's a picture from our local paper. Pictured together with the balloon are the Helsinki cathedral and the tower of Helsinki Olympic Stadium

(https://a.cdn-hotels.com/gdcs/production36/d1839/44cdcb05-ff70-4426-aed0-54975426b592.jpg)

Fully manoeuvreble, propeller, rudder, the lot.

(https://hs.mediadelivery.fi/img/svg/6fd8cf9fcdca1ee912b5fb9e099dcaeb.svg)

Crossroads is Finnish?? Who knew...

Quote from: Gusington on February 23, 2023, 07:48:15 AMCrossroads is Finnish?? Who knew...

I try to be more quiet in future to match the national character. I mean, we have the red colour in our flag for a reason...

(https://pleated-jeans.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/thumb-verey-finnish-prroblems-memes.jpg)

A friend who had business trips to Finland was told you can tell an outgoing Finn because when he talks to you he looks at YOUR shoes.

Quote from: bobarossa on February 23, 2023, 08:12:54 AMA friend who had business trips to Finland was told you can tell an outgoing Finn because when he talks to you he looks at YOUR shoes.

Don't say (s)he was wearing shoes at someone's house! The horror :HideEyes:

Quote from: Staggerwing on February 23, 2023, 06:44:38 AMHard to tell from the pic if it has any maneuverability but it could be done with either a weak propulsion system on the 'payload' structure or by raising and lowering the balloon to different elevations with different prevailing winds using release valves to lower and lifting gas reserves to raise. Could be a combo. Those solar cells should provide enough power to electric motors for very minimal maneuverability. My money's on the changes in elevation since the wind directions at different elevations can be somewhat predictable.

Apparently, DARPA developed a technique to steer balloons using lasers to measure wind velocity and direction, and the concept was proven in 2019.  https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a38005873/pentagon-balloons-strattolite/

Two shocking revelations today. Croosroads is Finnish, of which I approve, and balloons can be steered by lasers, which I dis-approve. I wonder how close we are to, 'Smart' balloons that can steer themselves? Cause if we're close, I ain't never going to one of my grandkids birthday parties again. I don't want them sum-bitches following me home.  :grumpy:

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 23, 2023, 11:33:09 AMTwo shocking revelations today. Croosroads is Finnish, of which I approve, and balloons can be steered by lasers, which I dis-approve. I wonder how close we are to, 'Smart' balloons that can steer themselves? Cause if we're close, I ain't never going to one of my grandkids birthday parties again. I don't want them sum-bitches following me home.  :grumpy:

 :ROFL:

Balloons strike me as being a bit like canoes.  They can be "steered" but you have a very hard time "propelling" them.  Everything I know about meteorology I learned from staying at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

I'm glad we continue to learn things about each other.  Crossroads is the first person I've ever known (personally or virtually) who made it across the Finnish Line!

Don't dis canoes, it depends on the canoe's length/type/materials used and the skill of the paddler Sooner.

I'm good with canoes, I just got to be the only one paddling. Anybody else helps, we end-up in the weeds. They call me, 'The Canoe-Whisperer'.

I should consider moving to Finland, I would fit the national character.

Altogether now Finophiles!

Hadn't gotten around to posting this interview with the Epoch Times (or its sister media NTDTV rather), but they interviewed a retired US Colonel about maneuver capability for that balloon.

Will post from beyond the paywall; article written by Tiffany Meier (host of the original program for the interview) and Venus Upadhayaya:

QuoteThe Chinese spy balloon had maneuvering capability and had similarities to the Google balloon project Loon, which utilized AI analytics in its operations, according to Col. (Ret.) John Mills, an author and former director of cybersecurity policy, strategy, and international affairs at the Department of Defense.

"What's very interesting is in 2012, I was at Google and Google briefed me on Project Loon, their balloon project. And they use their advanced AI and analytics to raise and lower the balloon and they could maintain the position of a balloon by raising and lowering it. And they could also maneuver it," Mills said in an interview recorded on Feb. 9 on China in Focus, a show on NTD TV, The Epoch Times' sister media.

He said throughout the "spy balloon" episode that the Department of Defense has very clearly said that the Chinese balloon had maneuvering capability.

The Chinese regime maintained that it was a runaway weather balloon, but the U.S. administration has refuted such claims.

"This was a PRC surveillance balloon. This surveillance balloon purposely traversed the United States and Canada, and we are confident it was seeking to monitor sensitive military sites," said a senior defense official speaking on background in a statement on Feb. 4, indicating that the balloon could steer itself over the United States.

Mills said that when Google briefed him about the Loon project a decade ago, he was struck by its similarities with the CIA balloon projects of the past.

"This looks a lot like the CIA project from the 50s and 60s. It was called by about 10 different code names—Skyhook, AshCan [etc.]. The Google Project Manager ... had left NASA and was working for Google, goes, 'Yes, we actually FOA'd [Freedom of Information Act] CIA, and they gave us all the plans," said Mills.

Google's parent company, Alphabet, was using Project Loon to explore the possibility of using a fleet of balloons to beam high-speed internet in remote areas of the world and was shut down after nine years because Google couldn't find a sustainable business model and partners.

However, it was not sufficiently clear why it was shut down and Tech Crunch called its closure "surprising," because a year before, it had gotten approval from the Kenyan government to provide commercial connectivity services.

In Project Loon, Google had replicated the information it received from the CIA through the FOA, but what was different was that Google used its advanced artificial intelligence and big data analytics to maneuver the balloon, according to Mills.

"The Chinese spy balloon had maneuvering capability, which is interesting. So did the Chinese rip-off Google, which borrowed from CIA? Curious question!" he said.

The Epoch Times reached out to Google for comment.

Mills thinks that the Chinese were clearly conducting surveillance over specific U.S. strategic sites.

"I don't think it's a coincidence that they were over the three ... existing missile wings," said Mills, adding that the United States roughly maintains 450 Minuteman III missiles on alert at three different missile wings. "So roughly 150 missiles each at Malmstrom Montana Air Force Base, Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota—which also has a bomber base—then Francis E. Warren in Wyoming."

The Minuteman is a strategic weapon system using a ballistic missile of intercontinental range, according to the Defense Department website, and the American intercontinental ballistic missile force has remained on continuous round-the-clock alert since 1959. The Minuteman III missiles make up the most responsive leg of the nuclear triad.

"The Chinese were clearly conducting surveillance. They were exploiting gaps and seams in our air surveillance, our air picture. They clearly were doing that, and they were clearly collecting information and it also looked like the trackway went over Strategic Command Headquarters at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska," said Mills.

He suspects that the Chinese balloon was a spy operation and while it was over Nebraska, the Chinese were spying on the underground facilities.

"They were clearly doing electronic signals collection, perhaps imagery, perhaps measuring intelligence—all forms. Believe me, they probably had all kinds of different little sensors and subsensors collecting everything. So there's no question; they can call it weather all they want," said Mills.

The referenced Feb 4th public statement from the senior Defense Official can be found here: https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3288543/f-22-safely-shoots-down-chinese-spy-balloon-off-south-carolina-coast/

The article from Tech Crunch, being surprised about Google shutting down Project Loon, can be found here: https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/21/google-alphabet-is-shutting-down-loon-internet/

So the Chinese stole our tech so they could use it to steal more of our tech. It's kind of like we are spying on ourselves and the Chinese are just the middle men. They're probably worried our Poo Poo Platters are superior to theirs.

But are their Fang Fangs superior to ours??

.....I'm thinking probably not, but I don't have any experimental data.  :undecided:

I've been suspicious ever since General Tso got involved selling his chicken over here. Chicken should be kept strictly demilitarized with the exception of Col. Sanders of course.

So, what's the thinking on how long one of the Spy Balloons could remain aloft? Indefinitely? Or do they have to come down sometime and if so, how would the Chi Comms keep their tech out of anyone's hands that found the thing?

Wait, he was from Kentucky, so which side of the War was Colonel Sanders on?! Should KFC be canceled for reparations!? Would their primary customer base agree or complain about putting them out of business...?

(Man, suddenly I've got a great idea for a series of memes... Too bad I'm lazy and not that artistically inclined.)

....relatedly, now I'm sad again that the nearest KFC went out of business several years ago. I wonder if I can find an excuse to drive farther to get one of their chicken sandwiches which I've never yet somehow tried. (I did try Wendy's a few months ago, at last. Could have been the crew preparing it that night, but Mom and I agreed it was trash-tier, which surprised me greatly.)

(And thus I somehow looped the topic back around to the title of this thread!)

Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on February 23, 2023, 09:15:45 PMAltogether now Finophiles!

Monty Python's obviously got a lot of things right but may I just point out there's no shame being second to Belgium :justice:

 Nice background article on the PRCs use of surveillance balloons and an overview of their possible capabilities.  Difficult to summarize, but worth the read for those who are interested in the subject

China's militarisation of meteorological balloons  https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-militarisation-of-meteorological-balloons/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Daily%20The%20Strategist+CID_57f456d8040f754f9969ef69cdfcd333&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Chinas%20militarisation%20of%20meteorological%20balloons

In case you missed it, NBC News is reporting that their sources tell them that in fact the Chinese Spy Balloon WAS able to transmit data from electronic surveillance of American military sites it flew over, back to China despite the U.S. trying to prevent it. They also report that the balloon was able to cross-over military sites multiple times at will.  :doh:

^I'm pretty sure the military would have shot down that balloon with ease if they wanted to. 

I guess the danger to the innocent civilians on the ground was too great so the balloon was allowed to pass over sensitive military sites multiple times, thus ensuring a thorough collection of data uninhibited.  But the bottom line is no innocents were lost.   

I recall them saying they made sure nothing important was outside or being transmitted when the balloon was near.

I would think it would be a lot easier to recover the hardware if it was downed in a "shallow, littoral area" (which is where it was ultimately shot down).  But I can only guess at most decisions made by the military or the Administration.

While regular overflights by balloons would offer a much closer-up picture of military installations than you could get from a surveillance satellite, my suspicion is that one fly-over wouldn't tell you that much.  These sort of things feel more like a Pawn in a game of Chess and less like a Queen.

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 03, 2023, 05:47:02 PMWhile regular overflights by balloons would offer a much closer-up picture of military installations than you could get from a surveillance satellite, my suspicion is that one fly-over wouldn't tell you that much.  These sort of things feel more like a Pawn in a game of Chess and less like a Queen.

this wasnt about taking pictures, it was about signals intel that satellites cant pick up.

Yep, signal intel that was supposed to be jammed or only let through to allow the balloon to maneuver. Not let out.

Then again, maybe what got sent back to China was intel about our jamming systems? That sort of thing does happen, and can certainly be useful to an opponent; maybe that was unavoidable.

They were probably just trying to steal our designs for Crop Circles to make their own. Then sell them back to us. For less than we can make them ourselves. Or the aliens can make them for us.  :cylonA:

Dangit, the last thing we need are Chinese-made Crop Circles.  Even if they don't last as long as ours, I'm sure we'll be seeing them pop up everywhere somebody wants a bargain.

Maybe we should start carving a "Made in America" seal into our domestically produced crop circles?

Great idea. Or we could retaliate by making our own Fortune Cookies with shit in them THEY can't understand. Like, 'Knock-Knock' jokes. Because in China the government doesn't knock, they just come-in.   :outtahere:

sigh

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/politics/fishermen-possible-spy-balloon-fbi-alaska/index.html