BDA on Syria

[bayonetbrant]

Culled from ACIG

Estimated Syrian AFV losses since 9/5/2012 (from videos, courtesy of Ulysses at ACIG):
- 126 BMP destroyed and 45 captured =171 BMP lost
- 117 tanks destroyed and 48 captured = 165 tanks lost
- 3 ZSU-23-4 destroyed and 6 captured = 9 ZSU-23-4 lost
- 1 2S1 destroyed and 0 captured=1 2S1 lost
= 346 AFV lost

As noted by Rex over on FaceBook

The estimates are based on actual videos of destroyed vehicles. There is some risk of double-counting (ie, the same burning T-72 from different angles), although effort has been made to check for that. On the other hand, it doesn't count vehicles KOed that weren't recorded on videos, and it certainly doesn't count the substantial wear-and-tear attrition. Given that, the actual numbers are likely to be higher, not lower.

also

As might be expected, the regime deploys ZSU-23-4s to ground combat. It keeps virtually all of its mobile SAMs in garrison, however. In many parts of the country road traffic is subject to ambush, so AD commanders are understandably reluctant to deploy to their dispersal locations, since these can't be secured. Moreover, once SAM units are out of garrison there is a substantially increased risk of defection (which is why much of the Syrian army is still sitting in barracks).

Note that Rex is Canadian, so that's 9 May, not 5 September...

[LongBlade]

Heard a report on the news that Iranian advisers are in country helping them to test chem weapons in preparation for use.

With those kinds of losses and massive defections suspected, it's little wonder that the regime has its back against the wall and is ready to go all-in against its people.

[TheCommandTent]

It is going to be very interesting to see how this turns out.