F35 - Bad idea made worse over time?

[trailrunner]

https://twitter.com/FoxtrotAlpha/status/880104019909378049

The reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM, sometimes RM&A) is very important because the O&S (operation and support) cost is huge.  However, it's not as exciting as effectiveness (how many threats can it shoot down, how fast does it fly) and doesn't get as much attention.

That the F-35 has low availability now is not surprising.  Same thing happened on the C-17 and F-22 when they were new.  Systems and will improve, and our experience with the systems will improve.  That's well known, and there's actually a mil-handbook on reliability growth with all kinds of ways of extrapolating RAM from an immature system to a mature system.

In forecasting reliability growth, the proponents of the system will often try to make wildly optimistic assumptions and claim that they already know of a fix for every problem -- just trust them.  I once sat through an RMET (reliability maintenance evaluation team, or something like that) review of all the maintenance actions, and the contractors had a explanation for why almost every DR (deficiency report) shouldn't be scored against them.  Some were creative, and I'll give them credit for being prepared and fighting tooth and nail.

Having said this, the F-35's low availability now is certainly not a good sign.  I remember when the contractor made all kinds of wild promises in this area that so far haven't come true.  And there are enough F-35s with enough flight hours now that it's probably not really an immature system anymore.

[GDS_Starfury]

actually there are not a lot that have been deployed to operational squadrons.  the vast majority are either for testing or training.  as the program moves along the rate of availability will increase.

[Staggerwing]

It's all fun and games until someone develops a thought-controlled targeting system.

[GDS_Starfury]

a lot can be made of the F-35 being a shit show as its the latest shit show we have to watch.
the F-4 was a shit show.  so was the F-14, F-15, F-18, F-111, B-1, Ah-64 and Uh-60.
for fucks sake, the C-17 was a major cluster fuck.  and then theres the decades long tanker replacement fiasco.
this is the cycle of things.
the biggest problem I see with the F-35 program is that everyone wants and expects the final block version first.
this attitude is what has led to the delays and cost overruns more than anything.  let the friking program mature as its going to.

[bayonetbrant]

and then theres the decades long tanker replacement fiasco.

invalid comparison - this one's never made it out of contracting

[bayonetbrant]

[mirth]

The F-14 was not a shit show once the DoD let go of the idea that the F-111 was going to be a one-size fits all solution for the Air Force and Navy. The F-14 was delivered and operational 2 years after the contract was signed with Grumman.

[bayonetbrant]

actually there are not a lot that have been deployed to operational squadrons.  the vast majority are either for testing or training.  as the program moves along the rate of availability will increase.

FWIW, the guy you're arguing with - Trailrunner - works for the FAA and coordinates a lot of their DoD-related activities.
It's like you trying to argue with Cap'n Darwin about rocket science...  O0

[GDS_Starfury]

two guys in my last WoT team worked the flight line at Luke so ymmv.
anyway, my point still stands that the DoD is trying to get the last version first and thats one of the programs biggest problems.

[mirth]

DoD isn't trying to do that. In fact, the IOC requirements have been lowered more than once to make it look like the program is more on track than it is.

The problem is trying to simultaneously develop and deliver multiple versions for the various branches, particularly because so much of the plane is bleeding edge technology. It's compounded because maintenance and upgrades to existing aircraft have been deferred while waiting for the F-35.

[mirth]

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/13233/f-35b-pilots-will-make-rolling-landings-like-this-to-board-royal-navy-carriers

[trailrunner]

FWIW, the guy you're arguing with - Trailrunner - works for the FAA and coordinates a lot of their DoD-related activities.
It's like you trying to argue with Cap'n Darwin about rocket science...  O0

Actually, I work for DoD.  Over my career, I've had a front-row seat to a lot of great technology and systems in all services.  When I didn't have a front-row seat, I was in the lab, actually working on the system.  I think I mentioned in one of my earlier posts that I went to my first JSF meeting in February 1997 or 98, and I worked the program for over a decade after that.

anyway, my point still stands that the DoD is trying to get the last version first and thats one of the programs biggest problems.

I think you are referring to the article about the Pentagon testing office, right?  If that's the case, then just trust me that I am very familiar with that office.  Very familiar.

And trust me when I say that your assertion that "the DoD is trying to get the last version first and thats one of the programs biggest problems" is not correct.

DoD isn't trying to do that. In fact, the IOC requirements have been lowered more than once to make it look like the program is more on track than it is.

The problem is trying to simultaneously develop and deliver multiple versions for the various branches, particularly because so much of the plane is bleeding edge technology. It's compounded because maintenance and upgrades to existing aircraft have been deferred while waiting for the F-35.

There is a lot of truth to this.  Operational requirements have been reduced, while at the same time, the schedule keeps getting longer, and the budget keeps increasing.  I used to joke that other than cost, schedule, and performance, the program is doing great.

[mirth]

I used to joke that other than cost, schedule, and performance, the program is doing great.

Lol. That sums it up very well.

[bayonetbrant]

I thought you were our FAA guy?  Is that bbmike?  I crossed wires there somewhere.

[mirth]

Mike is FAA.