Middle Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread

Started by JasonPratt, September 17, 2018, 05:04:17 PM

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JasonPratt

#330
(Remember, ignore the "2d6", it's actually 3d6, board misprint. Though come to think of it, I might be able to fix it myself...)



From a purely pragmatic combat theory, not counting political concerns, what you want is to bump that coveted "Victory No losses" slot as low (toward the top of the chart) as feasibly possible.

The Volscian War will nudge it 2 slots higher, totally off the board and creating two more Defeat All Lost slots at the bottom; the Veientine War will bump it a solid 4 slots higher, creating 4 more such absolute defeat slots instead.

Every Legion you can bring to one of those fights, taps the total win slot back one notch toward the bottom; and every point of Mil skill in their Commander will allow a Legion to nudge the absolute win slot two notches lower (toward 3 at the top of the list).

So if you're going after the Veii, for example, your current best possible result, assuming you pick up another 3 Legions to your current logistical maximum, and send them out under the Manly One with his Mil 6 headquarters equals:

-4 War power
+ 7 Legions
+ 6 Manny's HQ
= +9 dice roll modifier.

That means your worst possible result would be a Stalemate with one Legion lost, and your odds of that are 1 in 216. BUT, Manlius won't be able to stop either of the two automatic fails, which aren't outright defeats but which would be pretty costly at 25% or 50% losses rounded up.

If you bring Furius Camilus versus the Veii, he can void either of those two automatic failures -- and the Veientine War has I think a 23% chance of one of them triggering without him! Otherwise his best math looks like:

-4 War power
+7 Legions
+5 Manny's HQ
= +8 dice roll modifier.

That means your worst possible result is a 1 in 216 chance of a Stalemate with 2 Legions lost, and a not much better chance of only 1 Legion lost in a Stalemate. Everything else is a Victory, most likely with no losses. And, with FurryCam, you don't have to worry about the 23% chance of a costly auto-fail.

There are other considerations, of course, including budget, and the expected costs (cash and unrest) of leaving the Volscians to harass your border; or on the other hand of prosecuting their War in a way that's risky or safe but which lowers the chance of a safe victory against the Veian town.

If I may note a political subtlety, though, which has recently become a factor: if you send both Consuls out with a Force against the Wars, Fabius of the Conservatives, Rome's High Priest, will be left behind as the Highest Ranking Available Officer. If your Wars don't win an immediate victory, whoever gets sent out as Consul won't be around to vote or have influence while they're still out in the field (as Proconsuls now).
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ArizonaTank

OK, not certain exactly how this is done, but Camillus and Cincinnatus should be raised to Counsels, so they can go to war.

Also, lets raise more legions, did I hear a recommendation for two?

In terms of the priesthood, I raise Papirius

I think that is all I can do.
Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

Erax

With three more legions we could send 3 vs. the weaker war and 4 vs. the other with a 63% chance of victory for each. In general, the more legions we raise and send to war the fewer we are likely to lose, so in a sense we are saving by raising as many as we can.

JasonPratt

Papirius can be raised to priesthood immediately.

Quote from: ArizonaTank on October 16, 2018, 06:46:46 PM
OK, not certain exactly how this is done, but Camillus and Cincinnatus should be raised to Counsels, so they can go to war.

Treating this as a formal Proposal.

Henceforth, to speed things along a bit, I will allow a provisional assumption that if the HRAO doesn't include a voting order with his Proposal, then any Faction can vote as soon as they want. In other words, assigning a voting order is a privilege of the HRAO but not a necessity.

AzTank's senators tally 12 votes pro. There are currently 38 votes remaining.
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JasonPratt

I've marked Papirius of the Conservatives as a priest, raising his Influence by 1 to 4, also raising the Conservatives' total Influence to 25.

While going around to check the remaining vote tallies (and whether any activist knights might count double pro or con, which currently won't happen, I happened to notice that the Aristocrats have farmed 3 extra Influence from 3 prior Influence gains! -- when any Aristo senator gains any amount of Influence, the Faction gains 1 extra Inf point to be distributed at I.I.'s choice to any other senator.

So, Cornelius and Cincinnatus each picked up 3 Influence when they each were elected Consul -- each time generated 1 extra Influence point. Cinc also earned 1 Influence for winning the Victory over the 1st Latin War; and even though he instantly lost it for his debacle of losing 3 Legions in the Victory, that still counts as 1 more Inf point to be distributed.

Thus in summary, I.I. has 2 Inf points he can distribute to anyone but Cinc, and 1 more Inf point he can distribute to anyone but Corny. I have left a marker as a reminder under his Total Influence marker, and I've upgraded it already to account for the extra influence meanwhile. It still isn't enough to activate his knights' x2 vote ability, but it's close!
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
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PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
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RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

IncompetentIdiot

The aristocratic faction votes for.

1 influence to each of my senators.

JasonPratt

Quote from: IncompetentIdiot on October 16, 2018, 08:21:18 PM
The aristocratic faction votes for.

1 influence to each of my senators.

Done, Cornelius now 9, Valerius now 6, Cincinnatus now 7. Total influence now 22. You'd need 26 currently to double your knights' voting power.

Aristocrats add 9 votes, making 21 votes pro, 0 votes con. 29 votes outstanding. Literally any other Faction, assuming its senators all vote together (which is a safe assumption since there's no benefit otherwise in this vote), will tip the scale to a majority for the Proposal.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

malize

Populists For. 

Our enemies will be taken care of, and then Cincinnatus can return to his fields.

JasonPratt

That cinches Cinc and Corny as the new Consuls, then!

AzTank and I.I. will either have to work out he details or roll for who gets to be Roman vs Field. Each of them will gain 3 Influence either way -- and the Aristocrats will farm another point of Influence which can't be spent on Cincinnatus!

As umpire, I will personally suggest that Cinc be made Roman Consul, since I.I. seems more able to check regularly on the thread right now.  O:-) So Cinc being the Presiding Magistrate as HRAO will help things move along more smoothly.

As a sidenote, the PM post can be voluntarily resigned without affecting the senator's rank or office in any other way. As with him losing the PM post for other reasons, the post then descends to the next HRAO senator, who then takes over management of the Senate as PM. This can be handy for various reasons, including real life issues cropping up which require a Player to be less able to check in on a thread. But it can also be handy for at least one in-game reason: the senator's Player wants the senator to be able to leave Rome, and the rules say that if the PM leaves Rome then he automatically closes the Senate while doing so. Due to the how the timing in the game works, however, the PM cannot make a Proposition where he would leave Rome if it passes, and then resign during or after this Proposition. He must resign first (assuming he agrees that the Senate should continue without him) -- but then the next HRAO must be willing to Propose for the prior senator to leave Rome as Commander or Governor! So while there's an important in-game usage for this concept, it can require some political finesse.  :coolsmiley:
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

ArizonaTank

Quote from: JasonPratt on October 17, 2018, 07:38:20 AM
As umpire, I will personally suggest that Cinc be made Roman Consul, since I.I. seems more able to check regularly on the thread right now.  O:-) So Cinc being the Presiding Magistrate as HRAO will help things move along more smoothly.



I am good with that
Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

JasonPratt

I can't imagine I.I. will disagree, so provisionally I'll note Cincinnatus as the new Roman Consul and Camillus as Field Consul. (I kept saying Cornelius, sorry -- that came from him being Field Consul from last turn, and also trying to track how many extra points of Influence the Aristocrats had farmed.)

That means Cinc will also be HRAO and thus the new Presiding Magistrate for this Senate.

There isn't any other Mandatory Business for this Senate, so it's now up to I.I. to decide how many more, if any, Legions to Propose Raising; with an eye toward future Proposals this Turn on how to send Cami and/or himself to War.

(If I.I. does insist on a roll off before then, which I doubt, we'll cross that bridge first.)
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

IncompetentIdiot

Am I correct in saying that if we send both consuls to war, the Field Consul would have the first shot at the Spolia Opima since he must be sent off before the Rome Consul? If so, I would indeed prefer for the assignments to be determined by a roll.

JasonPratt

#342
Quote from: IncompetentIdiot on October 17, 2018, 03:17:44 PM
Am I correct in saying that if we send both consuls to war, the Field Consul would have the first shot at the Spolia Opima since he must be sent off before the Rome Consul? If so, I would indeed prefer for the assignments to be determined by a roll.

Ah, good question!

Both Consuls can be sent out on the same Turn -- and if the highest ranking officer doesn't resign his Presiding Magistrate post before departing Rome, then he closes the Senate with his departure, so the the standard example is that when the Roman Consul leaves for War the Senate closes.

As a general rule, the fights are resolved in the order of deployment first, and then by some other factors if they've been stacking up. (Later in the game Governors can get into fights with Wars from their Province areas, for example.) So again the standard example is that the Field Consul gets sent first, and then the Roman Consul; who closes the Senate by his departure for War; and then the Combat Phase comes along and I fight the Field Consul's battle first, then the Roman Consul's.

Consequently, under normal conditions, yes the Field Consul would get first shot at the Opima Spoila by a Victory, even though the Roman Consul will also be fighting a War next on the same Turn.

There are ways for the Roman Consul to game the system, however, within the rules, although this can require some political bargaining. ...I'm kind of loath to provide an example, though!? This is where Players should exercise political ingenuity. You've got enough exposure to the rules as they exist so far, to come up with political strategies aimed at getting your Consul in a better position to win the Spolia.

(Note that this card represents the game tempting Players to possibly cripple the cooperation of the Republic, and thus the survival of the Republic, by competing to get the unique one-time prize which can only be given to the first senator who earns it....  >:D )
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

Erax

We can't get the Spolia Opima this turn, it requires a war with a leader.

JasonPratt

Ah, right! -- whew, crisis avoided.  :bd:
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!