Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

I was always taught to stand up to bullies.  I even got suspended a few times for it.
this is the global version. 

[ComradeP]

Any kind of Western military involvement is likely to lead with war with Russia, which may or may not turn nuclear, but which even if it remains conventional the West as a whole isn't prepared for. As discussed yesterday, war with Russia would be foolish due to the possibility that it turns nuclear.

A simple threat of nuclear escalation means Putin can more or less do what he wants, and there is no direct way the West can stop Russian forces.

Unfortunately, I fear the length of the war is tied to how long the Russians want to keep going rather than Ukrainian resistance. Militarily, the defeat of regular Ukrainian forces over time is inevitable. Replacing vehicles and more advanced weaponry is very difficult or impossible, especially if the Russians target Ukrainian armaments factories.   

The "surrender now or suffer and surrender later" dilemma could be compared to the responses of various smaller European countries to Nazi invasion. Even though defeat was inevitable, some countries fought whilst others didn't or only through a very short token resistance. The result was always occupation, the difference thousands of casualties.

For the West, there's a bigger geopolitical problem as well. Withdrawal from Iraq eventually led to chaos and IS, crossing of the "red line" in Syria didn't result in Western involvement and withdrawal from Afghanistan led to chaos and the Taliban winning the war.

Due to Biden's own actions relating to some of those events and the upcoming midterm US elections in November, it will be politically difficult for him if Russia conquers and occupies Ukraine. Particularly when the Budapest Memorandum becomes part of the election campaign. To a lesser extent, the same goes for the Conservatives in the UK.

On a global scale, Western inactive might also force countries out of Western spheres of influence and/or tempt leaders to start/continue conflicts in their own region. The same would apply if the sanctions are not effective because a country like China continues to buy Russian goods.

[ComradeP]

I was always taught to stand up to bullies.  I even got suspended a few times for it.
this is the global version.

There was no nuclear option when you did so, there's a nuclear option now.

Whether or not open warfare with Russia results in a nuclear war would depend on Russian restraint. I don't know if you're a gambling man Starfury, but would you put your money on Russian restraint at the moment?

[GDS_Starfury]

I might put my money on the other people with power in russia removing him if we call his bluff.
Im also willing to take the risk and call his bluff.

[MengJiao]

My 2 cents. And I hope I'm very wrong.

   Actually, I doubt this is going to turn into an all-out nuclear WWIII, but here's the problem: the Russians have trapped themselves.  It goes like this: they want Ukraine to surrender, but
the very thing that made Ukraine look like a target (ie no allies at all) makes it impossible for them to surrender since there is no external guarantee-ing agency or mediator
that comes readily into the equation.  Who is it that both sides (Ukraine and Russia) would trust to impartially administer a ceasefire and disengagement? 
China and India would seem to be available and France managed to ease the mess in Georgia in 2008.
France has been trying to mediate but has not gotten far.  China and India would seem unlikely at this point and are more likely to cause WWIII between themselves anyway.
This would seem to leave Turkey, but being a NATO country, that might be tricky for Russia.  The UN will never get around to doing anything on its own.
Hopefully, Ukraine and Russia will find a mediating and guarantee-ing agency acceptable to both pretty soon.

[Gusington]

OSCE?

[Uberhaus]

Looking at footage of the fighting in and east of Kherson, it seems the Russians captured the Dnieper bridges intact. That surprised me, the Ukrainians should've had plenty of time to drop them in the river. Maybe there were political considerations involved.

Unless the Ukrainians established large ammo dumps and fuel depots in the major cities currently (being) encircled, the defenders won't be able to keep up the current resistance.

Some of those 'bridges' along the Dnipr will be hydroelectric dams, like the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Plant approx 50km east of of Kherson.  With the dams, the Ukrainians could be controlliing water flow to flood the Dnipr and surrounding lowlands without flooding urban areas.  They just don't have the option when retreating to destroy them as the Soviets did in 1941, killing thousands.  They also take decades to rebuild.

To the second section, hopefully the Ukrainians began crash stockpiling food and water in Kyiv when the invasion began, because they had made little preparations beforehand.

I was always taught to stand up to bullies.  I even got suspended a few times for it.
this is the global version. 

Good for you.  I tried to find you the study showing this as a common trait for fighter aces.  In honour of your sig pic, the least I can do is say something righteous and hopeful for a change.

!.  Anonymous claims to have hacked the Russian broadcast system and show what we are seeing of Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60635927/page/3

Anonymous claims to have hacked Russian TV stations
The hacking collective Anonymous claims to have hacked Russian state TV broadcasts to show footage of the war in Ukraine.

In a Twitter post, Anonymous said it hacked into channels including Russia 24, Channel One and Moscow 24, in addition to Russian streaming services Wink and Ivi.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify these claims.

In a separate post, the group said that it is involved "in the biggest Anonymous op ever seen", adding that it is concerned that some governments may see it as a threat and conduct false-flag operations to discredit it.

"Remember us when various powers turn their attention towards us, because it will happen," Anonymous said. "We can change the world for the better. That has always been the idea".

Social embed from twitter
twitter

2.  Kazakhstan has had an anti war rally with no arrests, this is in stark contrast to the violence last month and indicates my concern about Kazakh troops being sent to Ukraine is unlikely.  https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/rally-in-support-of-ukraine-illustrates-kazakhstans-awkward-position/

Over the weekend, Kazakh authorities allowed a rally in support of Ukraine in the country's largest city, Almaty, two months after domestic protests devolved into violence in the same city. According to AFP and RFE/RL reports, the rally was attended by more than 2,000 people, who chanted anti-war slogans and insults aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Large protests and rallies are not typically tolerated by Kazakh authorities. Despite efforts in recent years to "reform" the country's protest laws, many attempts to hold rallies for various reasons are denied permission. The allowing of a rally in support of Ukraine contrasts sharply with the lack of permission granted last month for a rally to commemorate the victims of the January unrest in Kazakhstan. Activists and journalists who participating in February's rally have faced fines and detention, illustrating a sharp line between Nur-Sultan's sensitivities when it comes to domestic versus foreign policy issues.

3.  A RUSI research fellow thinks the Russians are on the ropes.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/russia-operation-ukraine-unsustainable-war-153037343.html

Russia's military operation in Ukraine will be "unsustainable" within three weeks, a defence expert has said.

Ed Arnold, a research fellow for European security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, said Russia is meeting more resistance from Ukrainian troops than it expected.

He told the Reuters news agency on Monday: "At the current rate of Russian losses, which are not confirmed, but we do have indications that this operation would be unsustainable within about three weeks from the Russian perspective."

[ComradeP]

OSCE?

Doubtful. Its presence in the Donbas has been criticized by Ukraine and Russia at various times since 2014.

Ideally, the organization would need to have a clean record in the Ukraine and Russia. The Russians will probably find something to complain about anyway even in that case.

[MengJiao]

OSCE?

Doubtful. Its presence in the Donbas has been criticized by Ukraine and Russia at various times since 2014.

Ideally, the organization would need to have a clean record in the Ukraine and Russia. The Russians will probably find something to complain about anyway even in that case.

  The Russians are going to have to stop complaining and get realistic before they lose every possible way of saving face in this mess.  I'd say they have about a week to figure out
its time to be realistic and accept the fact that trying to do whatever it is they are trying to do is not working out well.  After that, the Ukrainians will have nothing to lose and the war
will go on for months and months.

US State Department: Russian embassy's claim is "a flat out lie"
From CNN's Kiely Westhoff

The US State Department said a tweet from Russia's Embassy in the United Kingdom was a "flat out lie."

The tweet, posted Monday, claimed that Russia's military actions aimed "to stop any war that could take place on Ukrainian territory or that could start from there," quoting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

  This is the "demilitarization" argument: you have a war and in so doing you claim you are being helpful by destroying a lot of military gear.  Of course your own military gear (ie the Russian military gear)
is not what gets destroyed and we know from the example of Georgia in 2008 that most of the destruction happens after the ceasefire.  Another point that makes this Russian point
interesting is that they seem to be running out even of bad ideas.  It's also pretty obvious that nobody is likely to believe them and the fact that plenty of arms are flowing into Ukraine from all sides
suggests that having a rather large war is not a very convincing way of not having a rather large war.  Moreover, the Russian invasion seems to be having precisely the opposite effect than the
Russians seem to have had in mind since the basic message they are actually getting across to everyone day after day is: join NATO or die.   

[ComradeP]

Some of those 'bridges' along the Dnipr will be hydroelectric dams, like the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Plant approx 50km east of of Kherson.  With the dams, the Ukrainians could be controlliing water flow to flood the Dnipr and surrounding lowlands without flooding urban areas.  They just don't have the option when retreating to destroy them as the Soviets did in 1941, killing thousands.  They also take decades to rebuild.

Correct, I only noticed the dam after checking videos instead of a zoomed out map. My mistake. There don't seem to be AT obstacles or some means to block the road across the dam in the videos of Russian forces moving in. Maybe on the other side of the river.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1CdPO7brQQ and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVvk05EJ0rk&t=33s

The bridge at Antonivka is a "genuine" bridge and the Russians captured that bridge intact. I was wondering how they got into Kherson so quickly, but this explained it.

[Pete Dero]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.html

According to the NY times, in less than a week the United States and NATO members have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons (including Javelin missiles) over the borders of Poland and Romania.

[W8taminute]

I paid $4.69 per gallon of super unleaded today.  The highest I've ever seen gas prices in my area in my life.  87 octane is 4.01

[acctingman]

With gas prices stupid expensive (and probably continuing to rise even more) I wonder if US employers will allow its work force to continue to work from home.

[Gusington]

Conditions inside Chernobyl:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60638949

[al_infierno]

The Russian stock market is expected to remain closed until at least Wednesday.  What do you guys think are the odds of it actually reopening that day?  Seems like Russia's better option is to just leave it closed so foreigners can't buy up their stocks for pennies. 

Fun fact: The last time the Russian stock market closed for more than a week was in 1917 when it closed for 75 years.