South China Sea Heats Up

[ArizonaTank]

US sends China a defense pact warning over the collision incident.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-sends-defense-treaty-trigger-warning-to-china/ar-AA1p7Ryl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=be89aaf77719441f83bb3db6c23b912b&ei=3

[ArizonaTank]

So now China seems to be stepping on India's toes...

Really don't understand the timing of this. Maybe Xi is pandering to hard-liners in his military and government. The same guys who prove their manhood by buzzing US aircraft.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-s-troops-advance-dozens-of-miles-across-indian-border-report/ar-AA1qjwDD

[Sir Slash]

Interesting. If I had an army that big, I'd sure try to keep it busy somewhere, doing something besides looking hungrily...at me.   

[Skoop]

We've been silently preparing for china, marines launching tomahawk batteries from atolls and navy hornets launching sm2 missile from the air.  If china wants to awake our sleeping giant, bring it. 

[ArizonaTank]

We've been silently preparing for china, marines launching tomahawk batteries from atolls and navy hornets launching sm2 missile from the air.  If china wants to awake our sleeping giant, bring it. 

And sometimes not so silently...;)

[JudgeDredd]

We've been silently preparing for china, marines launching tomahawk batteries from atolls and navy hornets launching sm2 missile from the air.  If china wants to awake our sleeping giant, bring it. 

They should probably look at history and see that Japan woke that giant...that didn't go well for them.

[Tripoli]

We've been silently preparing for china, marines launching tomahawk batteries from atolls and navy hornets launching sm2 missile from the air.  If china wants to awake our sleeping giant, bring it. 

They should probably look at history and see that Japan woke that giant...that didn't go well for them.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but a US-China war would likely not be as easy as the war with Japan.  In WWII, Japan and Germany combined had an economy of only $607 billon in 1990 USD. Japan's share of this was only $147 billion.  The US had an economy worth $943 billion, or +6 times the size of Japan's. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1334676/wwii-annual-war-gdp-largest-economies/  In contrast, by some estimates, the PRC's economy is slightly larger than the US. (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/the-world-s-top-economy-the-us-vs-china-in-five-charts/)  In any case, the two economies are near peer in many measures.  Even if you discount much of the information that is reported about the PRC's economy (IMHO, it is wise to be skeptical of many of the economic statistics coming out of China), the fact is that we are not 6 times their size.

More concerning is the fact that China has been laying the groundwork for a conflict for decades.  In the event of a war, the US will be attacked in a myriad of ways.  Not all of these will be kinetic, but they will all extract a toll.  And it goes withoug saying that the American people are not nearly as unified as we were in the 1940's.  This is not to say the PRC would win.  They have some very significant challenges.  But I'm not confident of a victory, much less the almost inevitable victory the US had over Japan in WWII.

[Con]

We've been silently preparing for china, marines launching tomahawk batteries from atolls and navy hornets launching sm2 missile from the air.  If china wants to awake our sleeping giant, bring it. 

They should probably look at history and see that Japan woke that giant...that didn't go well for them.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but a US-China war would likely not be as easy as the war with Japan.  In WWII, Japan and Germany combined had an economy of only $607 billon in 1990 USD. Japan's share of this was only $147 billion.  The US had an economy worth $943 billion, or +6 times the size of Japan's. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1334676/wwii-annual-war-gdp-largest-economies/  In contrast, by some estimates, the PRC's economy is slightly larger than the US. (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/the-world-s-top-economy-the-us-vs-china-in-five-charts/)  In any case, the two economies are near peer in many measures.  Even if you discount much of the information that is reported about the PRC's economy (IMHO, it is wise to be skeptical of many of the economic statistics coming out of China), the fact is that we are not 6 times their size.

More concerning is the fact that China has been laying the groundwork for a conflict for decades.  In the event of a war, the US will be attacked in a myriad of ways.  Not all of these will be kinetic, but they will all extract a toll.  And it goes withoug saying that the American people are not nearly as unified as we were in the 1940's.  This is not to say the PRC would win.  They have some very significant challenges.  But I'm not confident of a victory, much less the almost inevitable victory the US had over Japan in WWII.

Macro wise since China is so dependent on inflow of raw materials a war will go badly for them in the long run
Micro wise most simulations of a war involving an invasion of Taiwan that have been modeled by RAND and other think tanks have China beating the US more time than not and massive infrastructure and military deaths on both sides
Typically we lose Guam and most of Japan airbases to a massive missile bombardment and likely to loose at least 1 carrier in order to completely defeat and sink the majority of the Chinese navy and air force.
50K US casualties in 1 week of fighting with more than 10K dead are the numbers I see.

[Sir Slash]

That is why the winning strategy is to give Taiwan whatever they need to ensure the Chinese cannot succeed in an invasion. If the Chi Comms know they can't win, then they won't try and there'll be no need for all that loss of life. As long as Taiwan exists as a free nation able to defend herself, and the other nations around her stand with her in opposition to China's aggression, then they can never succeed in expanding militarily very far into the Pacific. The U.S. should be the glue that holds that alliance together.

[JudgeDredd]

That is why the winning strategy is to give Taiwan whatever they need to ensure the Chinese cannot succeed in an invasion....

You speak some truth sir.

In 1982 Argentina decided to invade The Falklands because, for almost a decade, Britain was sending out signals that it didn't really care for the islands...removing HMS Endurance from the region, scrapping her carrier Hermes and selling her carrier Invincible.

Lives were lost because of, at minimum, Britain showed indifference.

In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine because the RotW sat by whilst they invaded Crimea. The RotW showed indifference.

There's much more around these in terms of nuance for sure - but indifference will embolden your enemy and make any response late and tougher.