I think "physical" mini gaming may be descending into a hard spot that it will may never recover from. But "virtual" mini gaming may thrive. However, technology may step into the market in a way that is yet unseen.
I am an old mini guy...I probably have a few hundred pounds of pewter and lead in my closet, most of it unpainted.
I have enough 15mm Nappys to put on quite a battle. But I doubt I will ever use those minis again.
Its not just computer games keeping me from breaking out the little guys, but its also actual the virtual representation of mini games that keeps the lead in my closet.
Table Top Simulator for example can do a really good job in laying out a virtual table with 3d virtual minis, spread out in huge battles like the old fellas used to do with their 25mm Napoleonics in my youth.
I can paint decently, but I never really liked doing it... Therefore the attraction of "virtual" minis, with no painting needed is huge for me. Add in the fact that it is easier to find players using TTS for remote games and the technology is a lock in my book. Sadly this does not help the guys selling pewter troops and gaming terrain. The guys selling rules can still do OK.
So is "virtual" mini wargaming still mini gaming? I would argue that it is.
However, I suspect that technology may someday swoop back in to save old fashioned minis. If relatively inexpensive pre-painted minis could be produced, letting you buy a pre-painted army for a hundred bucks or so; physical mini gaming might come back. For example, Hero Forge 2.0 promises to use 3D color printing technology to produce some very nice miniatures. As planned, these would be too expensive to buy whole armies, but if the cost comes down, it could be a game changer.