Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Tripoli]

For those who are interested, "War on the Rocks" had a pretty good 35-minute long podcast with Michael Kofman IRT the Russian mobilization.  I was working out when I listened to it, so I didn't take notes, but they cover a lot of ground.  Much of what they talk about is the implications of the mobilization, both politically and militarily.  It is well worth the listen.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/russias-plan-to-stay-in-the-war/

[GDS_Starfury]

the Danes seem to think the leaks are deliberate.

https://www.thelocal.dk/20220927/danish-pm-refuses-to-rule-out-sabotage-after-leaks-in-russia-europe-gas-pipelines/

[MengJiao]

From an interview with Medvedev : (google translate)

After the sharp warnings from the United States, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev reiterated that Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons "if necessary".

That is true in "settled cases" and in "strict accordance with state policy principles on nuclear deterrence," Medvedev, former president and now vice-chairman of the Russian Security Council, writes on Telegram. Medvedev mentioned the following conditions for a possible Russian nuclear attack: "If we or our allies are attacked with such weapons, or if aggression with conventional weapons threatens the very existence of our state." President Vladimir Putin recently said the same thing.

Russia will also make every effort to ensure that "enemy neighbors" such as Ukraine, "directly controlled by NATO countries", do not acquire nuclear weapons. "If the threat to Russia exceeds a certain danger threshold, we must respond," he said. "Without asking anyone's permission, without long consultation. And that is certainly not a bluff." Medvedev is known for his stern statements: he has already threatened to use nuclear weapons several times.

However, Medvedev also writes that he does not assume that NATO would intervene in the conflict in such a scenario. "After all, the security of Washington, London and Brussels is far more important to the North Atlantic Alliance than the fate of a dying Ukraine that no one needs." He said the supply of modern weapons is "pure business" for Western countries.

  It's funny how anxious the Russians seem to be to make sure the Ukrainians really look for vengeance.  Referring to the "fate of a dying Ukraine that no one needs" does not seem to be
a good way to make friends and influence people to think of you in a positive way in Ukraine.  Also if nobody needs Ukraine, why are the Russians wrecking their whole socio-economic, diplomatic, and military structures to hang on to a few oblasts?

  It's also odd that everybody is supposed to be busily ignoring the basic fact that if Russia blows Ukraine away, NATO will have to move in there to protect their own positions across the whole front.  You really can't just let Mr. Nuke drive clear to Slovakia just because his army is such a wreck he can't do anything else.  If Russia Nukes the Ukrainian army and drives into Ukraine, NATO will have to stop the Russians somewhere short of Slovakia.  Hell, at that point it might be time to redraw some boundaries and kick Russia out of the UN. 

[JasonPratt]

The moment the first Russian nuke goes off, they're out of the Security Council at least -- not necessarily out of the UN per se. But practically every nation (except Cuba maybe ;) ) will ally against them. This is what he is willing to do; this is what you can expect. Make your choice.


Regarding the Dupuy Institute estimate of his plan: I agree it seems like something the Russians would be thinking of, but I'm morbidly curious to see if 400,000 (more-or-less-)new Russian troops can be gotten ready to do anything useful by next year. I'd almost suspect the plan is to surge them and then nuke their own surge and try to convince people Ukraine did it -- except I don't yet see how Russia could even support a relevant fraction of that number to get them in place to surge.

[GDS_Starfury]

supposedly the first recruits are already getting captured.

[GDS_Starfury]

 :DD  these people might really start the revolution by accident.
pretty sure its a parody.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574865224108220423

[FarAway Sooner]

This is either a clever parody produced by Ukrainians, or it's the Russian version of Reality TV.  I'm not sure which.

[GDS_Starfury]

its a parody of subtitles

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1574946905376686081

[Anguille]

:DD  these people might really start the revolution by accident.
pretty sure its a parody.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574865224108220423

Unbelievable!

[Crossroads]

:DD  these people might really start the revolution by accident.
pretty sure its a parody.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574865224108220423

Unbelievable!

It is a parody account.

[Anguille]

:DD  these people might really start the revolution by accident.
pretty sure its a parody.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574865224108220423

Unbelievable!

It is a parody account.

It's very well done!  :clap:

[Crossroads]

:DD  these people might really start the revolution by accident.
pretty sure its a parody.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574865224108220423

Unbelievable!

It is a parody account.

It's very well done!  :clap:

Unbelievably well, even  :D

[MengJiao]

The moment the first Russian nuke goes off, they're out of the Security Council at least -- not necessarily out of the UN per se. But practically every nation (except Cuba maybe ;) ) will ally against them. This is what he is willing to do; this is what you can expect. Make your choice.


Regarding the Dupuy Institute estimate of his plan: I agree it seems like something the Russians would be thinking of, but I'm morbidly curious to see if 400,000 (more-or-less-)new Russian troops can be gotten ready to do anything useful by next year. I'd almost suspect the plan is to surge them and then nuke their own surge and try to convince people Ukraine did it -- except I don't yet see how Russia could even support a relevant fraction of that number to get them in place to surge.

  I think Russia might already have some trouble staying on the Security Council.  Why not put India on the council for example?

  Also, since I'm reading about the 1813/ Sixth Coalition against Napoleon -- there's the neutral zone problem (neutral zones were very popular around 1800 and there were a surprising number of them: the
Prussian one from 1795 or so, Hannover off and on, Silesia occasionally and the one by Breslau during the truce in the summer of '13).  and another instructive case -- Belgium in 1914.  The technical point
that brought the British Empire into the war was (I think -- I wrote my class papers on the Balkans for my WWI course) the German violation of Belgian neutrality.

  So, Ukraine was more or less a neutral zone -- not in NATO and not getting invaded by anyone else until 2014.  In 2014, Russia violated this implicit neutral zone.  The US at least did respond
by sending in agents and starting to train the Ukrainian army -- I guess they did a pretty good job with the training.
Next -- Feb '22, Russia massively violates the neutral zone, the West does what you do when somebody violates a neutral zone and arms the locals.

  Now if Russia fires nukes into a neutral zone, NATO will have to move in.  Simple neutral zone logic dictates that you don't let people just run amok in a neutral zone.  It just isn't done.

  Even if we ran a red vs blue simulation -- if red or blue goes into a neutral zone, you apply a definite response to keep that zone from obtruding into your operational space.  So nukes in the neutral zone
would mean you move into the zone to block whatever Mr. Nuke (red or blue) is up to.

[Anguille]

I've been watching a couple of videos from this guy. He's a british citizen living near St-Petersburg i think. He's pro Russia (i believe his wife is russian) and believes the russian speaking people in East Ukraine really want to join Russia. While i disagree with his opinion, i think his views and information he's got from the Russian side are very interesting to understand the other side. He's very articulate and is getting a lot of information...would love to hear your thoughts. Also interesting to read all the positive messages in english (meaning a lot of western guys support this as well).