GrogHeads Forum

IRL (In Real Life) => Current Events => Topic started by: ArizonaTank on November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM

Title: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM
Big Russian military build-up on Ukrainian border. Ukrainian president says the Ukrainians uncovered a Russian backed coup plot against the Ukrainian government.

Sounds like the old 20th century Soviet playbook. Coup first, followed by the "new" Russian-friendly government inviting the Russians in to help "restore order."

May be a long winter in the Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-deadly-serious-neutralizing-ukraine-203843482.html (https://news.yahoo.com/putin-deadly-serious-neutralizing-ukraine-203843482.html)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on November 26, 2021, 05:04:09 PM
I read in the Economist a few days ago that this build-up looks more 'real' than prior 'feints' as units are moving into position at night.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on November 27, 2021, 10:31:58 AM
I think it's all a big Head-Fake by Putin to get the West to make a deal to back-off support for Ukraine. If it works, the next build-up maybe for real for sure.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 24, 2022, 05:21:06 PM
Starting to heat up...

1) Russian / Beloruss joint exercises
2) Russian Navy positioning itself in the Crimea
3) US putting 8,500 troops on alert.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/24/ukraine-eu-us-embassy-russia/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/24/ukraine-eu-us-embassy-russia/)

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: bobarossa on January 24, 2022, 05:46:48 PM
and 4.  Russia running naval exercises off coast of Ireland
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60113233
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Dammit Carl! on January 24, 2022, 06:35:48 PM
Awesome.  Glad I'm retired - did my war years and certainly have no desire to do any more.

Curious to see if any of these naval exercises stress break any Russian craft, or have they managed to refit/upgrade their stuff.  Seems like a question for Google.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 24, 2022, 08:34:44 PM
I've been obsessively reading as much coverage of this as I can from as many sources as I can. Very hard to make a call on which way this will go.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on January 25, 2022, 12:02:42 AM
Right there too. But I'm thinking the Russian soldiers can't be very motivated for an actual conflict and so may perform badly. The Ukrainians would have every reason to fight like lions to resist being under Putin's thumb.  Also the weather may determine if there's war or not. If it stays good, I can see Putin riding shirtless on a horse into Kiev.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 25, 2022, 01:10:37 AM
it makes the wargamer in my giddy.  however in the real world this could get very messy very quickly.
if the russians do invade the payoff is that NATO countries will go back to Cold War levels of defense spending rapidly.
Leopard 3a2 anybody?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on January 25, 2022, 04:31:39 AM
That is all fake news !  The Russians are only responding to a Nato build up at their border.
If you live in Russia that is the news they are feeding you right now.  Life is so much easier when you control all the media and you eliminated all opposition all you opponents have freaky accidents.

There are a lot of very beautiful women in that area but when I see a half naked Putin posing on a horse I don't get the feeling he is into that.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 25, 2022, 09:31:10 AM
Germany is being oddly ornery about the whole thing, not wanting to ship weapons, not sending units east...must be the gas line controversy that is muting their response.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on January 25, 2022, 10:41:01 AM
It also could be the Germans are looking over their shoulder at a strengthening Polish military and hoping for a friend to the east. How'd that work-out last time they thought that way?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 25, 2022, 03:02:45 PM
For the wargamers out there...

Interesting video on the structure of Ukraine's ground forces. No idea how accurate it is...but at least it sounds authoritative... ;)

Plenty of Org charts with NATO symbols and discussion of equipment...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U26SNwTH8p0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U26SNwTH8p0)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on January 25, 2022, 03:27:51 PM
Great video. Thanks for the post.  :clap:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 25, 2022, 05:25:12 PM
Thanks ArizonaTank - that is exactly what I have been looking for. I immediately subscribed to that YouTube channel as well.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on January 26, 2022, 03:50:15 AM
https://armedforces.eu/Ukraine

ArmedForces.eu contains information on military forces of countries. Here you can find data of military budget, personnel and current military equipment of all types. Equipment is divided into land forces, air forces and navy. You can check the specification, production year, cost and pictures or movies with land vehicles, aircrafts and navy ships. You can also find there a number of nukes in each country that possesses a nuclear weapon.

Not much info about the organization but more info about numbers and equipment.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 26, 2022, 01:37:42 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on January 26, 2022, 03:50:15 AM
https://armedforces.eu/Ukraine

ArmedForces.eu contains information on military forces of countries. Here you can find data of military budget, personnel and current military equipment of all types. Equipment is divided into land forces, air forces and navy. You can check the specification, production year, cost and pictures or movies with land vehicles, aircrafts and navy ships. You can also find there a number of nukes in each country that possesses a nuclear weapon.

Not much info about the organization but more info about numbers and equipment.

Good site. The first thing that strikes me is that on paper at least, Ukraine is no pushover...and a Russian invasion would certainly not be a surprise attack. So the Ukrainians would make the Russians pay. Still, given the size disparity between Russian and Ukrainian forces...the Ukrainians probably don't last long in a full invasion scenario.

The Russians would probably own the sky and that probably means a bunch of dead Ukrainian tanks, and chaos in Ukrainian rear.  Also, looks like most of the Ukrainian tanks are upgraded T-64s from the last century. These did not fare well in open country against more modern armor during Desert Storm, no reason to expect they would do better on the steppes.

A full invasion would look kind of like a reverse Fall Weiss. Like the Poles in '39, the Ukrainians would have the invasion from three of four sides (Russia, Crimea and Belarus) and the Russians would have overwhelming air superiority. Also, like the Poles, the Ukrainians have mostly dated equipment...with a sprinkling of up-to-date stuff (but probably not enough). But unlike the Poles in '39 who had a hungry Stalin in their rear, the Ukrainians have a secure back end, bordering NATO.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 01:40:23 PM
There is a lot of discussion of Ukrainian territorial/militia groups continuing the fight with 'partisans' once their regular armed forces are beaten back.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 26, 2022, 01:56:16 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 01:40:23 PM
There is a lot of discussion of Ukrainian territorial/militia groups continuing the fight with 'partisans' once their regular armed forces are beaten back.

I would guess that even as "clever" as Putin is supposed to be, he can't really get past the law of unintended consequences here.

The Ukrainians have a long history of partisan warfare against occupiers...including anti-Soviet partisans. I guess that kind of partisan war would be a big drain on Putin's power.

Also, because of what is going on in the Ukraine, Finland and Sweden may look harder at NATO membership (but right now they are still saying "no"). But a full Russian invasion might push them over. Not a "win" for Putin by any means.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 01:57:32 PM
^Yes I just read that last night about Finland and Sweden.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on January 26, 2022, 04:05:41 PM
Recently watched that old classic from the 80's called "Red Dawn" so take that into consideration about the words that are about to follow.

So I'm not educated much about why Russia is seemingly willing to take Ukraine by force other than it used to be part of the Soviet Union.  But looking at what both sides stand to gain or lose and it's quite clear that if a war does break out it will be very painful.

The US seems to have activated some 50k troops to be sent to Europe somewhere in response to all of this tension over Ukraine. 

Anybody left home to defend us while all these troops are gone to Ukraine and Taiwan?  Where are all of our SSBNs and CVs right now?  Is the East Coast and West Coast secure?

This whole thing smells bad to me, but again I admit I'm just throwing out my uneducated opinion.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2022, 06:17:54 PM
QuoteAlso, looks like most of the Ukrainian tanks are upgraded T-64s from the last century.

IIRC the soviets never exported T-64s.  the tanks that got trashed in Iraq were T-62s.  The T-64 is/was one of the best tanks the soviets ever fielded and the Ukrainian ones are upgraded with ERA and probably newish fire controls.

QuoteThe US seems to have activated some 50k troops to be sent to Europe somewhere in response to all of this tension over Ukraine.

Anybody left home to defend us while all these troops are gone to Ukraine and Taiwan?  Where are all of our SSBNs and CVs right now?  Is the East Coast and West Coast secure?

First, all Ive heard is 5000 troops not 50000. 
your next line is laughable, and no Im not picking on you or talking down to you.  The chance of an actual land invasion of this country by anyone is simply a joke.  our SSBN are where they need to be as are our carriers.  keep in mind this isnt the Cold War and all of our armored units are pretty much stateside now and not forward deployed to Europe if that helps you sleep better.  our coasts are secure.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 26, 2022, 07:26:23 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on January 26, 2022, 04:05:41 PM

So I'm not educated much about why Russia is seemingly willing to take Ukraine by force other than it used to be part of the Soviet Union.  But looking at what both sides stand to gain or lose and it's quite clear that if a war does break out it will be very painful.

The US seems to have activated some 50k troops to be sent to Europe somewhere in response to all of this tension over Ukraine. 

Anybody left home to defend us while all these troops are gone to Ukraine and Taiwan?  Where are all of our SSBNs and CVs right now?  Is the East Coast and West Coast secure?

This whole thing smells bad to me, but again I admit I'm just throwing out my uneducated opinion.

I have a buddy in the DoD and a close friend (she might get closer when the ink on my divorce is dry) who is a professor of Russian History and we talk about this stuff a lot. 

Can't share with you all of what my DoD buddy said but I'll  say what I said and he agreed with. 

If the Russians invade, and we think it's a decent chance they will, it'll be before the thaw.

Putin's probably leaning strongly towards action, and that's not exactly because the Ukraine is former Soviet territory, it's really just how the Russians think about their defense. 

From a Russian mindset, they've been invaded in the last 200 years by Sweden, France and Germany twice.   They have a serious worry about invasions from the west, and they want as much real estate between them and their enemies as possible. 

Every Eastern European country that joins NATO, to Russians, looks like an ever strengthening position to attack Russia.   A NATO Ukraine is a knife right into the heart of central Russia, and a perfect jumping off point to cut the rest of Russia off from the Caucuses.  The Baltic state threaten their northern outlet to the sea.  The Russians simply won't allow this. 

This isn't dissimilar to why we have the Monroe Doctrine and why we intervened in South America so much in the Cold War.  We didn't want the Warsaw Pact to share a border with us, or even come close to doing so.  Part of the conceit of Red Dawn was that South America and Mexico joined the Warsaw Pact giving them a southern front, so this is a concern even we had. 

And while your concern about the defense of the homeland I think is not too much worry, I would worry about China using the opportunity of a war in the Ukraine to make moves of their own. 

Putin and the Russian media have created a lot of peaceful outs if he wants to take them.  In Russia this is being played as NATO buildup and aggression and Russia trying to be peacemakers.  He can say he brokered "Peace in our time" if he wants to back it down.  But, if he has a real, reasonable belief that the Ukraine will join NATO, I don't think he will. 

And if he goes in, you'd better hope the Russians win quickly and decisively.  If the war bogs down I'd be scared to see what a desperate Russia will do to break a stalemate.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 07:40:40 PM
Hold up...you're getting a divorce???
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on January 26, 2022, 07:46:01 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 07:40:40 PM
Hold up...you're getting a divorce???

Yeah. WTF? Does this mean you'll be changing your avatar?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on January 26, 2022, 07:53:56 PM
Is there anyone here who seriously believes that once Putin gets the Ukraine, he will sit down and behave himself? The guy's on a mission to recreate the USSR and destroy NATO. And he will be in a much stronger position to do so with the Ukraine's resources at his disposal. Remember the old saying, "Russia without the Ukraine is a country. Russia with the Ukraine is an empire".  Next on his list will be the Baltics and Poland unless the West stands united and in his weasel-ish face. It's 1938 all over again and Ukraine is the new Czechoslovakia.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2022, 08:02:17 PM
and some more info about the T-64:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-64
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 26, 2022, 08:44:47 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on January 26, 2022, 07:46:01 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 07:40:40 PM
Hold up...you're getting a divorce???

Yeah. WTF? Does this mean you'll be changing your avatar?

Yeah, sadly.  Final paperwork is in process right now.

Not my choice, and around September when I learned that I was, it was a pretty big shock to me as well.

Dunno if I'll change my avatar or not.  My (soon to be ex) wife and I are still pretty close, or at least I think we are.  Just not close enough for us to stay married or living under the same roof for much longer, at least as far as she's concerned. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 08:49:30 PM
I am really sorry to hear that. Sorry for the thread derail.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on January 26, 2022, 09:07:44 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on January 26, 2022, 08:44:47 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on January 26, 2022, 07:46:01 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 07:40:40 PM
Hold up...you're getting a divorce???

Yeah. WTF? Does this mean you'll be changing your avatar?

Yeah, sadly.  Final paperwork is in process right now.

Not my choice, and around September when I learned that I was, it was a pretty big shock to me as well.

Dunno if I'll change my avatar or not.  My (soon to be ex) wife and I are still pretty close, or at least I think we are.  Just not close enough for us to stay married or living under the same roof for much longer, at least as far as she's concerned.

I've been there, and it sucks. But had I not gone through that experience, I never would have met my soulmate and mother to my children. You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. Good luck, brother. Let us know if you need anything.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 26, 2022, 09:08:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2022, 06:17:54 PM
QuoteAlso, looks like most of the Ukrainian tanks are upgraded T-64s from the last century.

IIRC the soviets never exported T-64s.  the tanks that got trashed in Iraq were T-62s.  The T-64 is/was one of the best tanks the soviets ever fielded and the Ukrainian ones are upgraded with ERA and probably newish fire controls.


Yes, you are right I was sloppy. The combats I had in mind were the "Eastings." No T-64s, but a whole bunch of T-72s (along with T-55s and 62s). The T-72 and T-64 were contemporaries and depending on where you read, somewhat equivalent. Of course, to your point the Ukrainian T-64s aren't your 'grand dad's 64s,' and have been vastly upgraded, including a better gun.

BTW, my best references for these tanks are the excellent Combat Mission manuals that thoroughly describe the various tanks through about the year 2017 (Shock Force 2, Cold War and Black Sea). If you have any of these games, check out the equipment descriptions in the back.   
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2022, 09:14:00 PM
I got divorced and ended up back with one of my best friends and am the happiest Ive ever been.

and fuck russia!
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 26, 2022, 10:12:36 PM
Good 'visual' article from Reuters with maps, satellite images, etc.

https://graphics.reuters.com/RUSSIA-UKRAINE/dwpkrkwkgvm
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on January 26, 2022, 10:59:26 PM
I been on the Divorce Train myself and it will in time bring you to a much happier place than when you got on it. Misery is trying to save something un-saveable and wasting years doing it. A brighter, happier future lies ahead of you SirAndrew. Just don't let anger and bitterness blind you to the next great thing coming into your life. I would do it all over again in a minute to get where I'm at now.  O0
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 27, 2022, 12:23:02 AM
Thanks for the sentiments all. 

It's had its fraught moments but she and I are on the same page I think.  The hardest thing was the pet custody (thankfully no kids) and just the idea of starting out on my own in a new place.   We worked out an equitable split of the pets and assets and we're trying to transition back into the friendship that got us a long way.  She's still someone I'm going to see and hang out with a lot, heck, we're still doing most of our normal stuff.  Fifteen years together and twenty six knowing each other is a long time to just let it all go sour.

I think it'll be ok, just kind of want it over with and to start the next chapter.

Anyway, no more derailment.  I guess if someone wants we can start a surviving divorce topic in IRL.  This is my first rodeo so I might find a lot of advice helpful.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on January 27, 2022, 04:28:54 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on January 26, 2022, 07:53:56 PM
Is there anyone here who seriously believes that once Putin gets the Ukraine, he will sit down and behave himself? The guy's on a mission to recreate the USSR and destroy NATO. And he will be in a much stronger position to do so with the Ukraine's resources at his disposal. Remember the old saying, "Russia without the Ukraine is a country. Russia with the Ukraine is an empire".  Next on his list will be the Baltics and Poland unless the West stands united and in his weasel-ish face. It's 1938 all over again and Ukraine is the new Czechoslovakia.  :coolsmiley:

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on January 27, 2022, 09:01:31 AM
Sorry to hear about your divorce SirAndrew. 

Star I know you're not picking on me but you gave a good response to my question.  (as fearful as my question was, lol)

But yeah I worry about these things. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 27, 2022, 09:48:54 AM
There is a good Netflix movie on The Munich Conference with Jeremy Irons playing a better Chamberlain than Chamberlain did.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 10:22:50 AM
Sorry for your troubles, SirAndrew.  :'( I'm glad to hear you'll still be friends and doing much the same things, but, sigh.

Re Jeremy Irons: oh, yeah, that movie sounds good! I could easily imagine Jeremy Irons playing Chamberlain! And now the internet should give me Irons-asChamberlain singing the Nazi-ish song "BE PREPAAAARRED!" from The Lion King (where he played Scar.)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 10:35:04 AM
Regarding the main topic: listening to some other military geeks talk about it, too, including one guy who used to do work for the DoD in analysis of Russian military intel, I'm leaning toward the "sphere of influence" theory. I.e., Putin doesn't want to occupy Ukraine or even fight them that much. He just wants to take advantage of weakness in the west to shift the Ukraine (by small but decisive occupational action and threats) into being in Russia's sphere of influence rather than NATO's.

This theory overlaps with the theory upthread that Putin wants to keep NATO from using the Ukraine as a Fortified Sector, so to speak (in Soviet pre-WW2 parlance), for staging invasion. In this scenario, Putin uses the Ukraine as a FS for denying an invasion route a la the Iron Curtain Warsaw Pact principle.

Of course, in Soviet doctrine (paraphrasing from memory here, quoting one of the Soviet FS commanders), "only the naive regard [Soviet] Fortified Sectors as being primarily for defense"! Putin could also be thinking of using the Ukraine as a military district for springboarding his own invasions elsewhere, most likely to somewhere no one cares enough about to go to war.

Anyway, this theory also explains why the Biden administration signaled that they'd be okay if Putin tried a "just the tip" invasion (as Ben Shapiro colorfully denounced it). The Ukraine allies itself with Russia consequently, while maintaining its own administrative government under Russian oversight, and we bulk up on other border areas consequently. Yay, everyone wins! -- except the Ukrainians, more or less, but they don't lose nearly as badly.

Bill Whittle and his crew discussed another key point in favor of this theory yesterday, that appeals to logistics: namely, according to their contacts, Putin hasn't set up a proper logistic train for even trying to overrun the country, much less occupy it.



Does this jibe with information y'all are getting from other sources?

Update: bonus geek points for Steve Green's coffee mug...!  8)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on January 27, 2022, 10:54:12 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 10:35:04 AM
Anyway, this theory also explains why the Biden administration signaled that they'd be okay if Putin tried a "just the tip" invasion (as Ben Shapiro colorfully denounced it).
Biden said something like that but the administration quickly corrected him and put out statements that they are not going to accept any kind of incursion.

Quote from: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 10:35:04 AM
Bill Whittle and his crew discussed another key point in favor of this theory yesterday, that appeals to logistics: namely, according to their contacts, Putin hasn't set up a proper logistic train for even trying to overrun the country, much less occupy it.
If you have over 100.000 troops and a large number of tanks and other heavy weapons on 'training exercises' you also have some logistics working.


Keep an eye on the weather.  Even modern tanks & equipment don't function well in Russian and Ukrainian mud.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 27, 2022, 11:31:07 AM
^Yes and that's why analysts have been saying if an invasion happens, it happens before spring/March, so the tanks and heavy weapons can be more mobile on frozen ground.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on January 27, 2022, 11:52:29 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 27, 2022, 11:31:07 AM
^Yes and that's why analysts have been saying if an invasion happens, it happens before spring/March, so the tanks and heavy weapons can be more mobile on frozen ground.

Climate change could save Europe from war ...
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on January 27, 2022, 12:05:35 PM
Most people don't know about it, but I've got it on good authority that Vlad was actually created in a secret Soviet laboratory using DNA from Hitler and Wily E. Coyote. This should explain a lot for all of us.  :o
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 12:54:52 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on January 27, 2022, 10:54:12 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 10:35:04 AM
Bill Whittle and his crew discussed another key point in favor of this theory yesterday, that appeals to logistics: namely, according to their contacts, Putin hasn't set up a proper logistic train for even trying to overrun the country, much less occupy it.
If you have over 100.000 troops and a large number of tanks and other heavy weapons on 'training exercises' you also have some logistics working.

True, but there's still a difference between logistics for support on the border, and logistics for invasion support. The paper they were referring to indicated that the logistics for invasion aren't there. (Unfortunately they didn't link to the paper, so I have no idea what the details are for that inference.)

Also, yes, I forgot that the administration quickly walked back Biden's comment, so that no invasion is preferable. However, this may also be a case of Biden accidentally saying the quiet part out loud, and/or signaling to Biden that even though our administration says one thing publicly, we're willing to accept some small decisive action.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on January 27, 2022, 12:56:23 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 12:54:52 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on January 27, 2022, 10:54:12 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 27, 2022, 10:35:04 AM
Bill Whittle and his crew discussed another key point in favor of this theory yesterday, that appeals to logistics: namely, according to their contacts, Putin hasn't set up a proper logistic train for even trying to overrun the country, much less occupy it.
If you have over 100.000 troops and a large number of tanks and other heavy weapons on 'training exercises' you also have some logistics working.

True, but there's still a difference between logistics for support on the border, and logistics for invasion support. The paper they were referring to indicated that the logistics for invasion aren't there. (Unfortunately they didn't link to the paper, so I have no idea what the details are for that inference.)

Also, yes, I forgot that the administration quickly walked back Biden's comment, so that no invasion is preferable. However, this may also be a case of Biden accidentally saying the quiet part out loud, and/or signaling to Biden that even though our administration says one thing publicly, we're willing to accept some small decisive action.

Since when has Russia in wartime ever really cared about logistics?   :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 27, 2022, 01:00:06 PM
Yes indeed where is climate change when we need to save the world??

I don't know what the winter has been like in eastern Europe but here in semi-upstate NY it has been brutaly cold for about a month...prime weather for the Tanks of New Jersey to invade!
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on January 27, 2022, 01:14:54 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 27, 2022, 01:00:06 PM
I don't know what the winter has been like in eastern Europe.

Not that harsh.  Right now temperatures are around 1° Celsius during daytime (freezing at night) and it looks like this could last for some time.  But normal temperatures should be around -5° Celsius for January.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 27, 2022, 02:40:57 PM
^Hmm that may hamper any plans the Russians have.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 27, 2022, 04:28:11 PM
I wonder if the Olympics play into this. Putin and Xi have been pretending to be besties recently. A military "incident" in the Ukraine would distract from Beijing's showcase. Not to mention the Russian and Ukrainian athletes redefining the concept of "food fight" in the Olympic village cafeteria. The Olympics are over Feb 20th. The Beijing Para-Olympics go into mid-March. Maybe Putin just keeps things on simmer until after the last of the athletes are wheels up.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on January 27, 2022, 04:38:25 PM
Or Putin and Xi each launch their attacks (Ukraine & Taiwan respectively) before the games begin because no one would suspect that they would be so bold.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 27, 2022, 05:04:14 PM
Can the Russians get an invasion in after the Olympics but before mud season?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on January 28, 2022, 05:06:18 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 27, 2022, 05:04:14 PM
Can the Russians get an invasion in after the Olympics but before mud season?

Kiev Weather February Averages, Ukraine

    Temperature -3°C 27°F
    High Temperature 1°C 34°F
    Low Temperature -7°C 19°F
    Rainfall 40 mm
    Rainfall Days  7 days

Kiev Weather March Averages, Ukraine

    Temperature  2°C 36°F
    High Temperature  6°C 43°F
    Low Temperature  -2°C 28°F
    Rainfall 40 mm
    Rainfall  Days 9 days



If the weather is normal it could be possible in February.
But with the build up of defensive weapons in the area (mainly US support) delay would come at a potentially high cost.
And how will you keep explaining 120.000 soldiers on 'training exercise' for that long.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on January 28, 2022, 12:36:02 PM
Just curious. Are the Russian soldiers at the border from the National Army or are they more of a call-up force like our National Guard? It seems keeping them there if they have other jobs would put a huge strain on the economy for months.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on January 28, 2022, 12:49:57 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on January 28, 2022, 12:36:02 PM
Just curious. Are the Russian soldiers at the border from the National Army or are they more of a call-up force like our National Guard? It seems keeping them there if they have other jobs would put a huge strain on the economy for months.

The have a standing army of 1.2 million (and a reserve of 2 million), so I guess this are regulars.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on January 31, 2022, 06:14:08 PM
You know I've been thinking.  Is 127000 troops enough to subdue Ukraine or at least capture large enough territory to force a surrender?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 31, 2022, 07:10:10 PM
I dont think so but I could wrong.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on January 31, 2022, 08:35:43 PM
It's enough to storm Kiev and install a(nother) puppet.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on January 31, 2022, 09:27:20 PM
I don't think Russia has the capability to take Ukraine by force and hold it. I don't think that's what they actually want. It's more about forcing Ukraine back into its sphere of influence.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 31, 2022, 10:59:36 PM
from what Ive seen, their homeguard battlions are trained to stay behind.  and them there Ukrainians love playing partisan.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: al_infierno on February 01, 2022, 12:27:46 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 31, 2022, 10:59:36 PM
and them there Ukrainians love playing partisan.

This is for sure more of a deterrent than any small-nation army could possibly be.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 02, 2022, 04:21:37 PM
Look like we're sending a 3000 troops to Poland. 

This has me puzzled.  In buildups to wars past you usually see massive troops movements and buildups across borders.  Not the penny packets we see in the news by both sides actually. 

Numbers are just not adding up to me to believe that a war is about to break out but deep in my gut I'm suspecting that something is going to happen that will change the dynamics in the region. 

Maybe some sort of secret deal that magically happens and all this troop movement is just a horse and pony show to make people believe a war is about to break out? 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: al_infierno on February 02, 2022, 04:44:12 PM
My guess is the U.S. Govt doesn't want to risk escalating the situation by sending in a massive expeditionary force.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 02, 2022, 05:31:00 PM
I think the Russians will one way or another install a puppet in Kiev.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 02, 2022, 06:48:17 PM
considering what the Army did to the russian regiment in syria maybe 3000 is all we need.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 03, 2022, 04:13:01 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31572259

The government and rebels in eastern Ukraine have agreed to start pulling back heavy weapons from the frontline. (Minsk agreements 2015 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol)


It looks like the Ukrainians and the pro Russian troops in the Donbas (Donetsk) region are still sticking to the treaty.   The large Russian army less than 100 K away clearly doesn't (they are not impacted by the treaty anyway).

@W8taminute : I'm not sure what you meant by 'penny packets by both sides' but if you were thinking about the 140.000 Russian soldiers that sure looks massive to me.

Quote from: al_infierno on February 02, 2022, 04:44:12 PM
My guess is the U.S. Govt doesn't want to risk escalating the situation by sending in a massive expeditionary force.

NATO is a defensive alliance and Ukraine is no member of it.  As I understand those US troops (some are just redeployed from Germany) are an answer to some NATO members requests.  By no way they are intended to defend Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 03, 2022, 09:45:49 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 03, 2022, 04:13:01 AM
...

@W8taminute : I'm not sure what you meant by 'penny packets by both sides' but if you were thinking about the 140.000 Russian soldiers that sure looks massive to me.

...

Well I'm no military expert but 147.000 troops doesn't seem like enough to take and hold ground.  I'm thinking in terms of the battles for Kharkov and Kiev back in WW2.  Maybe today's technology makes it such that 147.000 troops equals 500.000 WW2 soldiers. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 03, 2022, 09:54:21 AM
The Russians don't need to take all of Ukraine the old fashioned way.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 03, 2022, 11:15:12 AM
They may not need to take it, but after a significant taste of freedom, they will have to defend it against the Ukrainian people's long-term resistance to their presence. That could be much worse than trying to win a war in Afghanistan with 100,000 troops over what, 6 to 8 years, which they were never able to do. I still think Vlad's playing the crying child in the Candy Store trying to get what he wants by showing his ass until Mommy, or Daddy, caves and gives him what he wants...a practically defenseless Ukraine living in fear of Russian tanks and under Putin's bloody thumb. I won't get political here, but the West so far has been the parent who tells the child, "I'm going to count to three. One, two, two-and-a-half, 2 3/4, 2 7/8, 2 and....." They never get to 3 because they don't really plan to do anything to the kid but give them the candy anyway. It's no small coincidence that Putin looks so much like a fox in the face because that's the game he's playing. My 2 cents.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 03, 2022, 01:01:35 PM
^I agree with a lot of that. I also think that Putin could care less about sanctions, etc. He wants nothing less than a restoration of the USSR and maybe even the Warsaw Pact, he's said so himself. And he even put demands in writing that NATO troops be pulled back to their 1997 status, which the US and the rest of the west just laughed at.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 03, 2022, 01:57:51 PM
^^Interesting take and sounds very plausible. 

So let's say Putin does fail to get what he wants.  He may feel boxed in and re-direct his military somewhere else.




Suggested reading - Ezekiel 38 anyone?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: CptHowdy on February 03, 2022, 02:13:59 PM
i would be more worried about what russia is doing in syria with iran and turkey.. my eyes are on damascus and jerusalem.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 03, 2022, 04:40:21 PM
Quote from: CptHowdy on February 03, 2022, 02:13:59 PM
i would be more worried about what russia is doing in syria with iran and turkey.. my eyes are on damascus and jerusalem.

Mine too brother.  Mine too...
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 03, 2022, 05:19:27 PM
I think it's all part of the same end game. A new Russian-dominated superpower.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 03, 2022, 09:26:07 PM
 :DD
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 03, 2022, 10:32:37 PM
They're NOT laughing in Crimea. Nor Uzbekistan.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: z1812 on February 03, 2022, 10:43:54 PM
An interesting article.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2022/02/03/aps_matt_lee_grills_state_dept_spox_you_making_an_accusation_about_russia_is_not__evidence_that_the_russians_are_doing_this_i_remember_wmds_in_iraq.html

Perhaps you did not see this.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/02/politics/white-house-ukraine-messaging/index.html

Perhaps tomorrow the story will change again........
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 04, 2022, 12:34:25 AM
all I want is some frisbees in dreamland.
is that so much to ask for?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 04, 2022, 12:35:30 AM
^ It is not.  (great reference BTW  :bd:  )
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 04, 2022, 12:36:17 AM
I read this article on The Atlantic today and thought it was a pretty good synopsis of the "why" behind the Ukraine standoff.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465/
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Staggerwing on February 04, 2022, 06:40:20 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 04, 2022, 12:34:25 AM
all I want is some frisbees in dreamland.
is that so much to ask for?

Instead You might get a few dancing vampires in the Black Sea.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 04, 2022, 08:51:48 AM
they have neither the navy nor the bomber force for that anymore.
and now that Ive dug into it a little bit I dont think there are any US Navy ships deployed there at this moment.
https://news.usni.org/2022/01/18/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-jan-18-2022
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 04, 2022, 10:03:47 AM
Quote from: z1812 on February 03, 2022, 10:43:54 PM
An interesting article.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2022/02/03/aps_matt_lee_grills_state_dept_spox_you_making_an_accusation_about_russia_is_not__evidence_that_the_russians_are_doing_this_i_remember_wmds_in_iraq.html

Perhaps you did not see this.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/02/politics/white-house-ukraine-messaging/index.html

Perhaps tomorrow the story will change again........

Thanks for those articles.  I saw similar articles to that as well eslewhere. 
So on the one hand the White House is saying the invasion is not imminent and on the other they're saying the excuses are being set for an invasion. 
It all sounds fishy to me.  If they wanted to invade it would have happened already. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 04, 2022, 10:46:39 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on February 04, 2022, 10:03:47 AM
So on the one hand the White House is saying the invasion is not imminent and on the other they're saying the excuses are being set for an invasion. 

I believe Biden has said on many occasions that an invasion could be imminent.  It are the Ukrainians who are saying the opposite because they feel that this only plays in to the hands of Putin by creating fear and chaos, while damaging the economy.

https://ecfr.eu/article/friendly-arguments-bidens-and-zelenskys-disagreement-on-the-threat-from-russia/

Hence, American analysts believe that Russia could launch a new offensive in Ukraine in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, Ukrainian experts believe that the Russian military build-up is designed to divert attention away from other forms of destabilisation, such as cyber-attacks, terrorist attacks, attempts to instigate unrest, propaganda, economic coercion, naval strikes and airstrikes against strategically important infrastructure, and offensives launched by proxy forces in Donbas.

In the meantime, the prospect of escalating conflict has already damaged Ukraine's investment climate.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 04, 2022, 11:14:01 AM
There was also the language issue. 'Imminent' does not have a direct translation in Ukrainian.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 04, 2022, 11:38:26 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 04, 2022, 11:14:01 AM
There was also the language issue. 'Imminent' does not have a direct translation in Ukrainian.

Imminent was translated in to a word that equals inevitable.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 04, 2022, 11:43:49 AM
^Right, and not exactly the same, which led to big issues for all.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 08, 2022, 05:28:34 PM
The Javelin FGM-148 anti-tank guided missile has been talked up a bit in this crisis.

The Ukrainians and US are putting some big hopes on the ability of these missiles to take out Russian armored formations. I am guessing they will be important, but not game changers by themselves. Like any weapon system their effectiveness will depend on so many factors, and you bet the Russians have a plan to counter them. Pounding the hell out of enemy positions with massive artillery and air strikes before you let your tanks get close is a traditional Russian "counter-measure" for example.

Here is a neat 360 youtube showing Javelin firing and target hits. If you play in youtube, you can drag the view around like any other 360 image.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s--9W-4R9aI&t=43s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s--9W-4R9aI&t=43s)



Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 08, 2022, 05:48:09 PM
oops double post
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 11, 2022, 04:55:44 PM
It looks like shit is about to get real
What's the opinion that Russia will do something that involves shooting soon
My bet is within 48 hours from now
Con
Ps 32 years ago I was a snotty cadet training to fight the Russian bear. Looks like it's come full circle. My friends who stayed in are at General ranks now. They laughed when I told them my training was finally paying off
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 11, 2022, 05:23:38 PM
Quote from: Con on February 11, 2022, 04:55:44 PM
It looks like shit is about to get real


It is starting to look very bad... US Gov is telling US citizens to leave in the next 24 hours; they rarely are so specific.

PBS is reporting that US Gov officials believe Putin has made the decision to pull the trigger and informed the Russian military.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-to-invade-ukraine-next-week-according-to-u-s-officials (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-to-invade-ukraine-next-week-according-to-u-s-officials)

Putin and Biden are supposed to talk tomorrow...if it's all just a big game of chicken...time is now to blink.

Interestingly, apparently a retired Russian general posts on a professional Russian military officer forum that it is time for "Putin to step down."  He apparently posted that invading Ukraine "will forever make Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies." Of course hard to tell if this story is accurate, is some sort of military deception (by somebody), or even means very much. After all, a random post by a random retired US general wouldn't really mean alot here. But it does make me wonder if one way this ends is when a Russian general gets on RT to announce that Putin has suddenly decided to retire to "spend more time with his family" (isn't that what kind of happened to Gorbachev?)...but probably not.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-crisis-putin-military-opposition.html (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-crisis-putin-military-opposition.html)

https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/ (https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/)

I am an old cold warrior as well. Right now, I'm chilled to the bone.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 11, 2022, 05:54:49 PM
Looking at different sources like Reuters, AP, The Atlantic, The Economist and it does look like the consensus is some kind of Russian military incursion into Ukraine will happen in the next day or two, as Russia continues to add troops and equipment all around the border with Ukraine.

US National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan says that air and missile bombardment could start in hours, as the opening phase.

NYTimes reported this morning that estimated civilian casualties from a Russian attempt to seize Kiev would be 50,000 at least.

This is all hard to believe.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 11, 2022, 06:03:39 PM
Last couple of months I have focused on WitE2
This week re read red storm rising. Forgot how great a book it is.
Tonight fired up CMANO for the first time in months.
I can feel it going down
Hope the Ukrainians can live by the motto of "we fuck shit up" cause I do feel that the storm is going to break soon.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 11, 2022, 06:40:35 PM
Okay, first, going back a bit: the Russians have cared A LOT about logistics since before Barbarossa. They were at the top of their game with almost 20 years of logistic prep across all spheres of activity. During the first half of 1941 they accomplished the largest logistic transfer in human history, and then did it again but even moreso roughly two weeks before the Nazis invaded. The only problem was that they were cripplingly overspecialized in how they were setting up and applying their logistic preparations: namely for rolling westward to the Atlantic. Not for defense -- Stalin literally blew up the Soviet defensive logistic infrastructure and support.

Now, I'd be very curious to know whether the reports of a lack of backfield logistic preparation at the border have changed. It's no small matter to have roughly 150K troops of every land and air description demonstrating constantly at the border; but it's a whole other matter to support them in an invasion. Are the reserves mobilizing for example? Those two million in reserve would be a dead-sure signal if they started being called up, that Putin intended on taking and holding substantial amounts of ground or even doing mil-ops for more than, let's say, two weeks. (I honestly haven't heard yet one way or another, what the status there is.)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 11, 2022, 06:52:10 PM
Second -- those 3000 American troops that just arrived in Ukraine are, so far as I can tell, all from the 82nd Airborne Division. (Not sure about the first 1500ish.)

I can't imagine what purpose they're going to serve in this situation other than to be trigger targets, so to speak, for escalation, or (more optimistically) some scattered salt-and-pepper elite seasoning to stiffen Ukrainian defense efforts. Or they're a token show of answering requests for any kind of help because they're nearby (although I gathered that they were deployed from Bragg??)

Maybe things have changed a lot during my lifetime, and no doubt this is a great place to learn otherwise  8) -- but Airborne Divisions (per se) are not designed primarily for defense. You only use them that way as a last resort, not as a first preliminary response. You get a decent quality dirt-level merely airmobile rifle division to come in and do defense. (Or an airmobile rifle corps.)

Airborne Divs are supposed to invade places, not defend: drop parachute assaults behind enemy lines to screw with their CCC and, perhaps more importantly, capture airfields for the rest of the division to start landing transports to secure the area better around the field so that more punchy airmobile divisions can land to take over defensive duties of holding the ground that was taken. And all this is predicated on the requirement that normal divisions and corps are punching their way into the enemy to link up with the AirDiv (bringing their logistic tails with them, without which no AirDiv is going to survive long.)

So... what the actual what?! Are these guys supposed to spread out as "advisors" to Ukraine partisans, like a large-scale Green Beret op?  ??? Supposedly no American troop is going there to be in combat, which sounds suuuuuuper suspicious if the LEGENDARY 82ND AIRBORNE is sending a brigade more-or-less. (I don't know the org details of who got sent from the 83rd, yet.)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 11, 2022, 07:04:21 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 11, 2022, 06:52:10 PM
Second -- those 3000 American troops that just arrived in Ukraine are, so far as I can tell, all from the 82nd Airborne Division. (Not sure about the first 1500ish.)

I think you mean American troops in Poland.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 11, 2022, 07:10:36 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60234377

Ukraine tensions: US boosts troops in Europe
Published2 February

US President Joe Biden is to send extra troops to Europe this week amid continuing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Pentagon says.

Some 2,000 troops will be sent from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Poland and Germany, and a further 1,000 already in Germany will go to Romania.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Rekim on February 11, 2022, 08:30:09 PM
Quote from: Con on February 11, 2022, 06:03:39 PM
Last couple of months I have focused on WitE2
This week re read red storm rising. Forgot how great a book it is.
Tonight fired up CMANO for the first time in months.
I can feel it going down
Hope the Ukrainians can live by the motto of "we fuck shit up" cause I do feel that the storm is going to break soon.

The CMANO Live scenario Don of a New Era is an reasonable representation for scratching that itch.

I re-read Red Storm recently too. Amazing how well it held up over time.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 11, 2022, 10:25:39 PM
There are confirmed reports that there are now about 300 U.S. troops in Ukraine including Special Forces. They are officially there to train and advise the Uks, can we call them that? But the administration isn't saying more than that. I still think it's more likely Vlad's just selling, 'Wolf Tickets' as the old folks used to say, bluffing in other words. The phone call tomorrow between Putin and Biden will tell if Joe caves and gives away the security of a free nation or stands firm as he has done so far. For once, I'm rooting for him.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 11, 2022, 10:32:44 PM
NYTimes reporting that Putin may have decided that this coming Wednesday will be the beginning of Russian operations into Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: al_infierno on February 12, 2022, 01:42:05 AM
Not to make light of the situation, but I wish there was a Ukraine mod for Armored Brigade.   :-\
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 12, 2022, 04:40:40 AM
Should I start watching Threads or The Day After again ?

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090163/
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0085404/

What will this Russian Idiot do when he attacks and things don't go as he expected ?
What if NATO planes over the Baltic states or Poland are hit by a stray missile ?

I don't want to sound alarmist but I really don't feel good about this.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2022, 08:47:19 AM
forget CMANO and Red Storm Rising, Im firing up Fallout!  :arr:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Dammit Carl! on February 12, 2022, 08:54:33 AM
I am eyeballing the Twilight 2000 stuff (1st edition) at Far Future Enterprise's site pretty hard right now.

(or the GURPS Traveller CDs, one of the two)

Thanks, Putin.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 12, 2022, 09:04:18 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/ukraine-russia-putin-biden-belarus/

The U.S. State Department began evacuating staffers from the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv Saturday.

The British defense minister said Saturday that U.K. military trainers in Ukraine would leave over the weekend. "There will be no British troops in Ukraine if there is any conflict with Russia," James Heappey told Sky News.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2022, 10:14:56 AM
8 fully armed F-15s from Lakenheath landed in Poland today.  8)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2022, 10:17:35 AM
ah politics....

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 12, 2022, 11:15:30 AM
DJ Shadow is awesome.

And Pete you bring up a point that a lot of talking heads mentioned...they are very wary of a mistake being made and starting a war, on any side.

Russian Navy has closed parts of the Black Sea, near Odessa, btw.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 12, 2022, 11:56:40 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 11, 2022, 10:25:39 PM
There are confirmed reports that there are now about 300 U.S. troops in Ukraine including Special Forces.

News on CNN 20 minutes ago : The United States has moved some US forces out of Ukraine and ordered the evacuation of most of its embassy staff on Saturday as fears mount that a Russian invasion of the country could potentially take place in the next few days.

President Biden and the other guy are on the phone right now.  (https://www.emojirequest.com/img-facebook/FingersCrossedEmoji.jpg)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2022, 12:50:56 PM
Invasion: the newest olympic winter sport
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 12, 2022, 01:42:25 PM
^Who will be the biggest loser?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 12, 2022, 01:46:57 PM
If you enjoy Red Storm Rising, I highly recommend Red Army by Ralph Peters. 

https://www.amazon.com/Red-Army-Ralph-Peters/dp/1451636695/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2HKLSCYO5SPYQ&keywords=red+army+ralph+peters&qid=1644691584&sprefix=red+army+ra%2Caps%2C172&sr=8-1


Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 12, 2022, 01:51:08 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 12, 2022, 01:42:25 PM
^Who will be the biggest loser?
Russians never play fair. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/13/sports/russia-doping-sochi-olympics-2014.html
Russian Insider Says State-Run Doping Fueled Olympic Gold

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/olympics/2022/02/11/russia-olympics-doping-scandal/
A timeline of Russia's state-sponsored Olympic doping scandal

https://apnews.com/article/winter-olympics-russia-getting-away-with-it-60f7e4f7c54ae3fe65d966ff5a159e9b
At Olympics and beyond, getting away with it is Russia's way

https://time.com/5746344/russia-banned-olympics-2019/
Russia Banned From Global Sports Competitions, Including Olympics, for 4 Years For State-Sponsored Doping
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 12, 2022, 02:04:26 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 11, 2022, 10:25:39 PM
There are confirmed reports that there are now about 300 U.S. troops in Ukraine including Special Forces.

Okay, that's where I got confused; Fox News was showing the 82nd Airborne arriving somewhere else, and talking about forces in the Ukraine -- or maybe showing some of the 300 troops arriving in the Ukraine but talking about the 82nd sending 3000 and I mistook where.

Training and advising makes sense. Sending 3000 advanced troops of the 82nd to Poland or Germany (or spread over both) still doesn't make good defensive sense, but I suppose it could signal that we're willing to punch into Russian territory if Putin steps too far over the line.

Biden has already caved disastrously on giving away the security of a free nation (such as it was, since the situation there was admittedly not uncritical already for various reasons). But if Putin is staging an elaborate bluff demonstration then he and Biden might come to some arrangement where Biden cedes the Ukraine as a Russian sphere of diplomatic influence; and in return gets to sell the deal as a win to keep America out of war by waving a piece of paper declaring "PEACE IN OUR TIME! LET'S GO BRANDON INDEED!" or words to that effect. ;)

Sarcasm aside, he needs a big political win, and he has repeatedly shown he's willing to take the easiest available apparent route to get something he can try to sell as a big political win. So I fully expect that factor to play out.


Meterologically, I heard yesterday that Feb 15th is projected to be the firmest ground available in the region until summer dries things up, so if Putin is going to go then every day after the 15th will shorten his window for the motorized troops.

(I'm assuming there are no foot troops per se anymore, but they'd be in increasing trouble, too. The Russians know how to build tanks and tracked APCs with good ground pressure stats for dealing with snow and mud, so that's less of a factor; but you can only get so many troops forward with tracked APCs, and without troops to hold the mud the tanks will have trouble in urban and wooded areas.)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2022, 03:51:14 PM
QuoteMaybe things have changed a lot during my lifetime, and no doubt this is a great place to learn otherwise  8) -- but Airborne Divisions (per se) are not designed primarily for defense. You only use them that way as a last resort, not as a first preliminary response. You get a decent quality dirt-level merely airmobile rifle division to come in and do defense. (Or an airmobile rifle corps.)

you might want to check up on the US Army's TOE and while your at it the mission parameters for an airborne division.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 12, 2022, 07:17:12 PM
Quote from: Toonces on February 12, 2022, 01:46:57 PM
If you enjoy Red Storm Rising, I highly recommend Red Army by Ralph Peters. 

https://www.amazon.com/Red-Army-Ralph-Peters/dp/1451636695/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2HKLSCYO5SPYQ&keywords=red+army+ralph+peters&qid=1644691584&sprefix=red+army+ra%2Caps%2C172&sr=8-1

I briefly knew Ralph Peters when I was in the Army (many, many years ago). Very smart guy.

I don't often agree with his politics, but I believe that he does know the Russian military pretty well.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 12, 2022, 07:35:02 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 12, 2022, 02:04:26 PM

... Sending 3000 advanced troops of the 82nd to Poland or Germany (or spread over both) still doesn't make good defensive sense, but I suppose it could signal that we're willing to punch into Russian territory if Putin steps too far over the line.
...

I think it is mainly to reassure the new NATO members (the ones closest to Russia).

But the move is also to keep Putin from thinking that while he has 100,000 plus troops rolling around, they might "get lost" in the snow and casually slice off a piece of Poland.

Even if there was the political will in NATO, I don't think the alliance could pull together enough force in time to seriously intervene against the Russians in Ukraine itself. NATO would want heavy units for that. It would take many months to put a serious force of heavies in place.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 12, 2022, 07:59:55 PM
Putin's yacht was undergoing repairs in Germany. A few days ago, it pulled the plugs and left early before the work was complete. Seems Putin would not want it in a western port if sanctions were 'suddenly' imposed.

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/putins-yacht-graceful-abruptly-leaves-germany-amid-sanctions-warnings-over-ukraine-articleshow.html (https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/putins-yacht-graceful-abruptly-leaves-germany-amid-sanctions-warnings-over-ukraine-articleshow.html)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: al_infierno on February 12, 2022, 08:13:40 PM
The most notable part of that article IMO is the realization that Putin doesn't trust Russian docks to service his superyacht.   :-[
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 12, 2022, 09:09:00 PM
QuoteMission Statement: On order, the 82nd Airborne Division, the 82nd Airborne Division rapidly deploys within 18 hours of notification, strategically deploys, conducts forcible entry parachute assaults and secures key objectives for follow-on military operations in support of U.S. national interests. The 82nd Airborne Division is an active airborne infantry division of the United States Army specializing in joint forcible entry operations.

https://www.army.mil/82ndAirborne#org-about

According to the United States Army, the mission statement of the 82nd Airborne Division is pretty much exactly what I was talking about.

Now, obviously there are exceptions, Bastogne being the classic example of a last-ditch desperate deployment to save a crumbling situation. Stalin's first two or three airborne corps (out of ten, or maybe twelve I forget -- I know he had plans for fifteen eventually) got chewed up into paste in the first few months of Barbarossa when they were emergency deployed on defense, perhaps most notably punching down the blitz at Smolensk; after which Stalin occasionally reconfigured remaining divisions into the epic Guards Divisions which more-or-less saved the Soviet Union time and time again, not least the Guards Army rolling up to relieve the siege of Stalingrad. But (aside from one airdrop operation, I can't recall where at the moment), their exception contrasts the rule: they were reconfigured to stop being airborne divisions, and so generally fought better at standard rifle division missions than their doomed forebears in the opening months. You send the airborne div to defense as the last option, not the first response. (Unless the blitz happens to be overrunning airborne divs you stacked up at the border over the past several months, along with millions of rubles of parachutes laid out on the ground in the past few days, for some reason.  ::)  ^-^  :-" Then the divs may be defending as a first response, being already there on the scene of the surprise attack -- but that wasn't why they were there.)

So I'm back to the question, why send 3000 troops of the 82nd to the Russian border from Fort Bragg? Do Poland and Germany have air supremacy sufficient to cover a jump assault behind Russian lines ("forcible entry parachute assaults" to "secure key objectives") with ground forces powerful enough to reach them (in "follow-on operations" of "joint forcible entry operations") before they're destroyed?

Because if not, then they're just there to look awesome as a political message to Poland and Germany: see how confident we are at putting up some of our most famous elite units to stand with you?

Or if so, then they're there as a political message to Russia (a la MacNamara's "new language of diplomacy" ;) ), sort of like deploying tactical nukes to launchers at the border and showing them off.

Presumably, if they were there for actual operational plans already in existence, they wouldn't be shown off to the press. But neither would those plans be defensive.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2022, 09:41:43 PM
sorry to break it to you but we're not trying to get into a shooting match with russia at the moment.
those troops are there as political place holders.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 12, 2022, 10:47:55 PM
US troops are in Rzeszow, SE Poland.  This area borders Ukraine not Russia. Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave, which was the German Tilsit, is in between Poland and Lithuania far to the north on the Baltic. The Russians reinforced it last December according to Reuters.  https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-military-kaliningrad-idUKKBN28H19A&ved=2ahUKEwibjLvN1fv1AhXwlWoFHTgeBacQFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3-398pKCR2d8gUUg1-CJdD  I don't know of reinforcement in the area by NATO.  I think we would be hearing about large build ups in Belorus to seize a land bridge to Kaliningrad through Poland and Baltic states, NATO countries. 
This brings us back to Ukraine.  Unfortunately, Ukraine cannot be a NATO country due to the conflict in its borders and the opposition of Orban of Hungary. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/hungary-blocks-ukraine-from-nato-cyber-defense-center.html&ved=2ahUKEwjRhPb32fv1AhUnk4kEHfn5DQIQFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2tv5auHZLOKqEqhIe8oG5y

That may be the case now, but if Russia is not bogged down in Ukraine, we will see a return to belligerence against the Baltic states and possibly Poland and Romania.  Especially if major NATO allies balk
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 12, 2022, 11:03:46 PM
Derp, Russia reinforced Kaliningrad in December 2020.  Who wants to repeat 2021 with me?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2022, 11:27:19 PM
I just dont see putin wanting to actually drag NATO into a shooting war.
he doesnt have the 1987 soviet military and he knows it. 
even without US armor in the region every country has some version of leo2s.  I wont even get started on the air force disparity.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2022, 11:51:56 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/12/15/ukraines-tanks-could-be-better-than-russias-it-might-not-matter/?sh=467712e7571b
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2022, 12:29:35 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2022, 01:06:11 AM
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: CptHowdy on February 13, 2022, 05:59:49 AM
No one will be helping Ukraine especially NATO. Europe has a reliance on Russian gas and will not want to be cutoff if they interfere(Germany). Once China, North Korea, Iran see how the world does nothing to stop Russia then expect them to make their own moves.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 13, 2022, 09:36:06 AM
Quote from: CptHowdy on February 13, 2022, 05:59:49 AM
No one will be helping Ukraine especially NATO. Europe has a reliance on Russian gas and will not want to be cutoff if they interfere(Germany). Once China, North Korea, Iran see how the world does nothing to stop Russia then expect them to make their own moves.

But Russia also needs the money from selling that gas.  It looks like Germany received the guarantee they can have access to gas by ship (Ukraine crisis: Germany and US 'absolutely united' on Russia sanctions, Scholz says / https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/06/german-leader-s-stance-on-russia-looms-over-first-visit-to-us)

Some relevant data :

The EU's GDP is €13 trillion while Russia's is only €1.39 trillion. 
The EU is Russia's first trading partner while Russia is the EU's fifth trading partner.  In 2020, trade exchange reached €174.3 billion. For Russia, this represents over 37% of its total trade. For the EU, it represents 4.8% of the overall extra-EU trade.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: CptHowdy on February 13, 2022, 10:56:06 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 13, 2022, 09:36:06 AM
Quote from: CptHowdy on February 13, 2022, 05:59:49 AM
No one will be helping Ukraine especially NATO. Europe has a reliance on Russian gas and will not want to be cutoff if they interfere(Germany). Once China, North Korea, Iran see how the world does nothing to stop Russia then expect them to make their own moves.

But Russia also needs the money from selling that gas.  It looks like Germany received the guarantee they can have access to gas by ship (Ukraine crisis: Germany and US 'absolutely united' on Russia sanctions, Scholz says / https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/06/german-leader-s-stance-on-russia-looms-over-first-visit-to-us)

Some relevant data :

The EU's GDP is €13 trillion while Russia's is only €1.39 trillion. 
The EU is Russia's first trading partner while Russia is the EU's fifth trading partner.  In 2020, trade exchange reached €174.3 billion. For Russia, this represents over 37% of its total trade. For the EU, it represents 4.8% of the overall extra-EU trade.

if putin feared sanctions there would be no threat to the ukraine. he's got money banked up. he can hold out longer than europe can go without gas and since the current US administration killed the Israeli sponsored pipeline there isnt any relief in sight.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2022, 11:41:01 AM
your comments are not completely true nor are they the whole story.
but if you want to stick to fox news soundbites then you do you.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-693866

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-greece-eastmed-gas-pipeline-ditched
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 13, 2022, 11:52:49 AM
Thus far, this thread had not become political. Please keep it that way and be sure to keep the focus on strategic and tactical issues of the potential armed conflict.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: CptHowdy on February 13, 2022, 12:10:31 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2022, 11:41:01 AM
your comments are not completely true nor are they the whole story.
but if you want to stick to fox news soundbites then you do you.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-693866

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-greece-eastmed-gas-pipeline-ditched

nothing untrue whatsoever. the current admin pulled its support. i never stated any reasons(costs) or offered any opinion(appeasing Turkey) as to why they did. As of right now there are no options for europe except russian gas. the articles you link talk about connecting electricity grids but no timelines are given. Until there is an alternative then russia can and will do whatever it wants in the region.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: CptHowdy on February 13, 2022, 12:26:10 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 13, 2022, 11:52:49 AM
Thus far, this thread had not become political. Please keep it that way and be sure to keep the focus on strategic and tactical issues of the potential armed conflict.

Thanks.

no tactical issues for Russia whatsoever. they can roll up Kiev in hours not days. grand strategy wise Russia will keep its naval forces docked in syria and off the coast of israel. Further emboldened by the russian presence Iran will continue using its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Palestine to attack Israel. Erdogan isnt getting younger and may look to cement his place in history. He is going to want to hitch his wagon up to the strongest force in the region and that is currently Russia.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 13, 2022, 02:06:16 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2022, 11:51:56 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/12/15/ukraines-tanks-could-be-better-than-russias-it-might-not-matter/?sh=467712e7571b

Interesting to see this subject coming in an article from Forbes.

As the article notes in passing, the quality of the tanks probably does not matter much; the Russians might just spend the time they need to establish air supremacy and complete a full air bombardment (days or even weeks). By example, Operation Desert Storm coalition forces spent about a month plastering Iraq before the ground forces moved in. Likewise, during an initial Russian air bombardment, anything that moves on the Ukrainian steppe will be splattered in massive air-to-ground attacks. By the time the Russian armor formations move in, most of those wonderful T-64 upgrades will have been made into scrap by AGMs and become coffins for their unfortunate crews.

But the Russians might want to try the fast lane and go for a blitz (they might not want a lengthy air campaign because it might harden European opinion against them). A smash and grab just to take Kyiv and Kharkiv for example. In that case, a lightning strike might not give the Russian air force time to clear out those pesky T-64 upgrades before the Russian tanks get there. Then, there might very well be some armor on armor action.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 13, 2022, 02:23:55 PM
Quote from: CptHowdy on February 13, 2022, 12:26:10 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 13, 2022, 11:52:49 AM
Thus far, this thread had not become political. Please keep it that way and be sure to keep the focus on strategic and tactical issues of the potential armed conflict.

Thanks.

no tactical issues for Russia whatsoever. they can roll up Kiev in hours not days. grand strategy wise Russia will keep its naval forces docked in syria and off the coast of israel. Further emboldened by the russian presence Iran will continue using its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Palestine to attack Israel. Erdogan isnt getting younger and may look to cement his place in history. He is going to want to hitch his wagon up to the strongest force in the region and that is currently Russia.

Yes.

Another possibility is that while the world is worried over Ukraine, Israel launches a pre-emptive attack against it's immediate threats or against Iran itself.  This considering their time is running out for Iran to build a bomb. (which I think they already have)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 13, 2022, 02:24:37 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2022, 09:41:43 PM
sorry to break it to you but we're not trying to get into a shooting match with russia at the moment.
those troops are there as political place holders.

Absolutely agree.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 13, 2022, 02:29:06 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2022, 11:41:01 AM
your comments are not completely true nor are they the whole story.
but if you want to stick to fox news soundbites then you do you.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-693866

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-greece-eastmed-gas-pipeline-ditched

Wow!  Just wow.  I didn't realize the US did this.  100% pure evil.  I'm sorry I'm american and proud of my country and all but this behaviour is an absolute no no. 

It is written, those that bless you [Israel] so too will I bless.  You don't get blessed if you don't bless Israel. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 13, 2022, 03:10:22 PM
A Russian attack on Ukraine would be an absolute tragedy. So a discussion of gaming is in the bigger scheme, less than trivial. 

But still, I can't help but wonder how a very heavy sanctions regime against Russia would affect the gaming world as it is today.

I think the smaller Russian devs who publish on Steam would probably find it difficult, if not impossible to be paid. However, some of the larger devs and publishing houses may have diversified enough internationally to weather what comes.

For example, Eagle Dynamics (DCS), started in Russia, but is run out of Switzerland now. But if the bulk of operations are still in Russia, it might be difficult to transfer funds to where its operations are and pay the devs. I am guessing that Eagle would be OK with short term sanctions...but longer term sanctions might cause them real difficulty.

Not sure about IC (IL-2 Sturmovik), it seems to be still out of Russia. Also, Gaijin Entertainment (War Thunder). Gaijin used to be just out of Russia (I believe), but now seems to be headquartered out of Russia and Hungary. 

Then there is Wargaming.net (World of Tanks) out of Belarus (headquartered in Cyprus), who might be collateral damage because of Belarus' close tie-in to Russia in this crisis. 

If Russia does invade Ukraine, what happens to these companies would be a case study for how, or even if, sanctions have effect on internet based companies. Maybe these companies go all in for cypto (thus getting around sanctions)...throwing all of the traditional models out the window. It might be as simple as turning World of Warships doubloons into a crypto-currency...;)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 13, 2022, 03:58:12 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 13, 2022, 03:10:22 PM
A Russian attack on Ukraine would be an absolute tragedy. So a discussion of gaming is in the bigger scheme, less than trivial. 

But still, I can't help but wonder how a very heavy sanctions regime against Russia would affect the gaming world as it is today.

I think the smaller Russian devs who publish on Steam would probably find it difficult, if not impossible to be paid. However, some of the larger devs and publishing houses may have diversified enough internationally to weather what comes.

For example, Eagle Dynamics (DCS), started in Russia, but is run out of Switzerland now. But if the bulk of operations are still in Russia, it might be difficult to transfer funds to where its operations are and pay the devs. I am guessing that Eagle would be OK with short term sanctions...but longer term sanctions might cause them real difficulty.

Not sure about IC (IL-2 Sturmovik), it seems to be still out of Russia. Also, Gaijin Entertainment (War Thunder). Gaijin used to be just out of Russia (I believe), but now seems to be headquartered out of Russia and Hungary. 

Then there is Wargaming.net (World of Tanks) out of Belarus (headquartered in Cyprus), who might be collateral damage because of Belarus' close tie-in to Russia in this crisis. 

If Russia does invade Ukraine, what happens to these companies would be a case study for how, or even if, sanctions have effect on internet based companies. Maybe these companies go all in for cypto (thus getting around sanctions)...throwing all of the traditional models out the window. It might be as simple as turning World of Warships doubloons into a crypto-currency...;)

If a conflict delays the release of DCS AH-64D, I will endorse immediate full-scale US intervention.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2022, 04:35:53 PM
all of wargamings money is run through and kept in Cyprus not Belarus as far as I know.
threads about this very topic keep being posted and deleted on their forums.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: z1812 on February 13, 2022, 10:00:00 PM

Apparently Zelensky has some doubts about U.S. intelligence.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-airlines-stopping-redirecting-flights-to-ukraine-as-crisis-brews/
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 13, 2022, 11:06:12 PM
Doubts about American Intelligence? The professionals who were able to find Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq when no one else on earth could? Or has since.  ::) I'm wondering if Biden or people in his administration isn't sounding alarm bells trying to scare Zelensky into giving in to Putin's demands in order to avoid a conflict. Such a move would allow the U.S. to duck any responsibility for a Putin win here.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2022, 11:06:15 PM
or hes using it as an excuse to regalvanize NATO into something more useful.
I think its a great thing that NATO is being tested right now.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2022, 11:32:16 PM
 :DD

https://defence-blog.com/over-a-dozen-russian-tanks-stuck-in-the-mud-during-military-exercise/?fbclid=IwAR3c1fYldzjbBtLy2_x7lJzFBcTAeBW9cONK2VUUyEScoNrKupCxTD44nLI
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Skoop on February 14, 2022, 02:40:35 AM
If we give the Ukrainians enough javelins, they may embarrass the russians ala Finns in the 1940 winter war.  Those Ukrainians are some tough mofos.   
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 14, 2022, 11:01:00 AM
The countries pushing the Ukrainians to hold to the Minsk accords are France and Germany. From January 31, this year:  https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-russia-france-germany-europe-d9a2ed365b58d35274bf0c3c18427e81  Ukraine has no desire to do so.  In the article, Danilov, the Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council states: 



"The fulfillment of the Minsk agreement means the country's destruction," Danilov said. "When they were signed under the Russian gun barrel — and the German and the French watched — it was already clear for all rational people that it's impossible to implement those documents." 

At grogheads we have a grasp of Russian's desire for a buffer zone around its nation after losing nearly thirty million people in the Second World War.  However, NATO doesn't threaten the Russian people.  The movement of old Warsaw Pact states, Soviet states including failed attempts in Belorus towards the West, towards democracy, threaten autocrats especially Putin and his kleptocracy.  This is succinctly stated in the article that Toonces posted from the Atlantic: 



"I read this article on The Atlantic today and thought it was a pretty good synopsis of the "why" behind the Ukraine standoff.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465/ "

Putin is getting older, he turns seventy this year.  He lives a healthy lifestyle, but he will surely be thinking about his legacy.  Will he want to be remembered as leading a kleptocracy that exploited the Russian people or fulfilling his ambition of rebuilding the Soviet/Russian empire?  The only check on his power is that he maintain his autocracy. 

The forces and threats on Ukraine's borders are very real.  There are satellite images, videos of forces in transit, that the Russians aren't denying the presence of but are saying are engaging in maneuvres.  The West is in turmoil with problems from serious political division, to supply problems, to the pandemic.  This is an advantage of Putin to exploit while he states that the US is wagging the dog.  From everyone's favourite RT:  https://www.rt.com/russia/548537-us-uk-want-showdown/  Just remember if your computer blows up, it isn't Russia's fault; it's mine alone.

If you speak to a Ukrainian, they are angry that they gave up their nuclear weapons in return for the promise of territorial integrity and rightly so.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 14, 2022, 11:10:02 AM
Now it's a party:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-troops-arrive-reinforce-baltics-amid-tensions-over-ukraine-2022-02-14/
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 14, 2022, 11:27:39 AM
The Budapest Memorandum, what Ukraine "gained" for giving up its nuclear weapons. From Radio Free Europe in 2014. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-explainer-budapest-memorandum/25280502.html
Apparently, it is a diplomatic document not a treaty.  Too bad Metternich wasn't around at the time.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 14, 2022, 12:07:50 PM
I've been tracking this RC-135V over the Black Sea for awhile.

(https://scontent-lga3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/274015184_10159240619707702_3414583669712847382_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=dY8yBScMqLEAX9-g2Uo&_nc_oc=AQmBBlIDkUOJK013PK4KiYXlVAEo9JQNmgreozeniR_IXoM6bZY1aZr5TmpSvi2Qbbk&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-2.xx&oh=00_AT8dX437Vsi2rN4Tm99sK0EZ2c7exmsLs36_I9jM5f64Rg&oe=620F6FB3)

Some interesting military traffic in the region, particularly in Czechia, where I've spotted SAAB 39 Gripens, KC-135s, Learjets, Black Hawks, Chinooks and all kinds of different fixed-wing transports. I've seen German, British and American transports flying in and out of airfields near Kyiv.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 14, 2022, 12:44:47 PM
I wonder what the RC-135V is watching?  The question is whether the Russian amphibious force will be used or is a diversion like the stationing of MEUs off Kuwait in Desert Storm.  But, Atkinson states in Crusade that the Marines would have staged an amphibious attack but the Iraqi army just collapsed making an attack unneccessary.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 14, 2022, 12:52:18 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 14, 2022, 12:44:47 PM
I wonder what the RC-135V is watching?

The Rivet Joint is capable of detecting and collecting intelligence across the full spectrum of electronic signals.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 14, 2022, 01:34:08 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 14, 2022, 12:52:18 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 14, 2022, 12:44:47 PM
I wonder what the RC-135V is watching?

The Rivet Joint is capable of detecting and collecting intelligence across the full spectrum of electronic signals.

This is interesting, I was wondering what anti-shipping defences Ukraine and apparently, they won't be operational until Spring. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/01/27/ukraines-anti-ship-missiles-might-arrive-too-late-for-a-war-with-russia/?sh=1c6859f639c7 
However, the UK is sending ASM https://navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/february/11378-ukraine-to-receive-anti-ship-missiles-from-the-uk.html
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 14, 2022, 02:09:30 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 14, 2022, 12:52:18 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 14, 2022, 12:44:47 PM
I wonder what the RC-135V is watching?

The Rivet Joint is capable of detecting and collecting intelligence across the full spectrum of electronic signals.

Just had an epiphany brain-fart.  One duty the RC-135 and others will perform will be to prevent the Russian Navy from having a 'remember the Maine incident". 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 14, 2022, 08:31:50 PM
The videos, images and info in this link make it more difficult to believe that this build up is just some kind of posturing or a ruse. If it is, at minimum, it's a very financially expensive ruse:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/14/europe/russia-ukraine-troops-social-media-video-intl/index.html

"Russia's current military buildup near Ukraine is unprecedented," tweeted Rob Lee, from the Department of War Studies at King's College London. "This is not like previous war scares or the buildup in the spring [of 2021]. The amount of Russian aerial, ground, and naval military power near Ukraine now is quantifiably far greater."
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 15, 2022, 09:06:59 AM
I have heard some interesting ideas from local reporters : they claim it isn't Ukraine becoming part of NATO that worries Putin the most, but the example Ukraine may be to his nation.
Ukraine is becoming more and more a succesful democracy by western standards after the Maidan protests led to closer ties with Europe and the removal of President Yanukovych.

Putin can't allow such an example, so close to Russia, as it could spark some ideas in to his own population.  How unlikely it may be, he can't allow people believing he could be removed in the same manner.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 15, 2022, 09:54:24 AM
^I can believe that. Very, very similar to what the Soviet Union did in Hungary and Czeceslovakia too.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 15, 2022, 10:34:07 AM
Pete's got a very good point. How can Putin have any kind of open contact between his and a relatively free Ukraine without it demonstrating to the Russian people the value of Western Style democratic reforms? It'd be, 'Putin-g' ideas it their heads.  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 15, 2022, 02:57:21 PM
Things are starting to move faster....but in what direction?

-Russia indicates that some of its units are returning to their garrisons. US stock market rejoices. Ukrainians say they will believe it when they see it. The Pentagon cautions that the units might just repositioning. Did someone "blink"?

-Russian Parliament voted to recognize two parts of Ukraine's Donbas region as independent republics. These are areas where Russia has been supporting pro-Russian rebels.

-Russian media is reporting a failed "terror" attack in Donbas.

-Putin claims today that the Ukrainians are committing what he calls "genocide" in Donbas.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-baselessly-claims-genocide-is-happening-in-areas-of-ukraine-controlled-by-kremlin-backed-rebels/ar-AATT2Fh?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-baselessly-claims-genocide-is-happening-in-areas-of-ukraine-controlled-by-kremlin-backed-rebels/ar-AATT2Fh?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 15, 2022, 07:37:35 PM
^Those last two could be the false flag incidents we've been told about, which Putin will use as invasion pretext.

As of right now everything I am reading and watching is calling BS on the Russian troop pullback. The total number of Russian troops along the Ukrainian borders has actually gone up to 150,000, roughly.

Ukraine has also put together a new list of equipment to request from NATO - not weapons but things like field hospitals, radiation detectors, EOD detection equipment and other items.

Tomorrow (today now in Ukraine) is 0 hour, according to U.S. and most allies intelligence.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 04:28:42 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 15, 2022, 07:37:35 PM
As of right now everything I am reading and watching is calling BS on the Russian troop pullback. The total number of Russian troops along the Ukrainian borders has actually gone up to 150,000, roughly.

Маскировка (Maskirovka).  Like they did with great success during Operation Bagration in 1944 (coincidentally also on the Ukrainian Front). https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Operation_Bagration#Strategic_aims_and_deception
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 16, 2022, 07:20:30 AM
^Yes. As of right now most of the world just seems to be anxious and confused while trying to figure out what is going through Putin's mind. So...more of the same.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 16, 2022, 09:16:00 AM
I bet Putin is hoping that there are no WW2 historians in positions of power to counter his moves. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 16, 2022, 09:16:18 AM
Watching the air traffic in and out of the Black Sea area and Ukrainian air space, one interesting thing I have observed is an unusually high number of commercial liner aircraft registered out of Bermuda. Either Ukraine and Bermuda share a very lucrative tourist industry, or someone is using these planes as proxy aircraft to transport who knows what into the region.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 09:27:55 AM
Assets
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 16, 2022, 09:29:27 AM
'someone'
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 16, 2022, 09:33:45 AM
'shipments'


Anyone see that article about a US Blackhawk landing near the Ukranian border and picking up someone?

https://www.rt.com/russia/549490-blackhawk-ukraine-poland-border/
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 09:34:23 AM
Probably Bermuda shorts  ;).

Some EU airlines don't fly to Ukraine any more so these might be alternatives for getting people out of the country.
Weapons are flown in to the country in the open in an attempt to deter Russia by show of force.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 16, 2022, 09:52:40 AM
Interesting breaking news video regarding Russian moves in Syria.  Some of you might want to ignore the last two minutes or so of the video but that shouldn't detract from the news story.  This guy is a good source of news. 

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 10:25:11 AM
^ other sources, same news.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russia-sends-hypersonic-armed-fighter-jets-syria-naval-drills-report-2022-02-15/

MOSCOW, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Russia has deployed MiG-31K fighter jets with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and long-range Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers to its air base in Syria for naval exercises, Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday, citing the defence ministry.

The aircraft dispatched to Russia's Hmeimim air base will take part in exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, part of a surge of Russian military activity amid a standoff with the West over Ukraine and security in Europe.


https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-sends-warplanes-syria-huge-naval-drills-med-82907105
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 10:31:18 AM
Lufthansa hasn't suspended flights yet.  The US (and Canada) aren't disguising their arms shipments and Brazil's (another major arms manufacturer) Bolsonaro is close with Putin.
The wealthy may be wintering in Bermuda but the country is well known for its offshore financial sector.  If a speculation about assets is correct and the shippers have close Russian contacts, it can be taken as a very negative sign.  Not everything can be transferred by email.
With Jarhead I am assuming his obligations make it neccessary to pose leading posts.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 10:51:04 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 10:31:18 AM
Lufthansa hasn't suspended flights yet. 
KLM did recently and British Airways did a few years ago.  Lufthansa is considering it but hasn't acted yet.

Quote from: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 10:31:18 AM
With Jarhead I am assuming his obligations make it neccessary to pose leading posts.
I don't get what this means.

Having no need for it myself, I didn't think about offshore financial activities.  Are you implying Ukraine is getting money out of the country ?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 16, 2022, 11:25:19 AM
This Ukraine situation is going to get me into hot water!!!

I have been clicking on "Ukraine" stories so much in the past week that I'm starting to see links for "Beautiful Ukrainian Ladies" in my news feeds.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/entertainment/beautiful-ladies-of-ukraine--new-profiles-for-may-2021--your-future-wife-is-waiting-for-you/vi-XXXXXXX?ocid=windirect#XJftYDy2b7s_yt (https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/entertainment/beautiful-ladies-of-ukraine--new-profiles-for-may-2021--your-future-wife-is-waiting-for-you/vi-XXXXXXX?ocid=windirect#XJftYDy2b7s_yt)

Once my wife sees those...I will be in the doghouse for weeks...
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 11:43:17 AM
^ I must have clicked more on Russia stories because I'm getting links to Russian porn stars ...



This could be a game changer : the weather is changing.

(https://my.meteoblue.com/visimage/meteogram_14day?look=KILOMETER_PER_HOUR%2CCELSIUS%2CMILLIMETER&apikey=5838a18e295d&temperature=C&windspeed=kmh&precipitationamount=mm&winddirection=3char&city=Kyiv&iso2=ua&lat=50.4547&lon=30.5238&asl=187&tz=Europe%2FKiev&lang=en&ts=1645029126&sig=b7cb2e45193d00489fc97f34a84bc30c)

Night & day above freezing and rain is changing frozen ground in to mud.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 16, 2022, 11:49:54 AM
So assuming Putin DOES NOT invade
What is the outcome - is he better off/worse off
Did he achieve some other strategic goal and or increase his power or wealth?
Is he putting it off for another season?
Con
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 12:34:28 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 10:51:04 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 10:31:18 AM
Lufthansa hasn't suspended flights yet. 
KLM did recently and British Airways did a few years ago.  Lufthansa is considering it but hasn't acted yet.

Quote from: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 10:31:18 AM
With Jarhead I am assuming his obligations make it neccessary to pose leading posts.
I don't get what this means.

Having no need for it myself, I didn't think about offshore financial activities.  Are you implying Ukraine is getting money out of the country ?
A supposition that people are moving their riches, if it needs to form a gov' t in exile, yes the Ukraine gov't too.  If someone with close ties to the Russian elite is doing so that would be indicative of invasion.   
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 16, 2022, 12:35:59 PM
Quote from: Con on February 16, 2022, 11:49:54 AM
So assuming Putin DOES NOT invade
What is the outcome - is he better off/worse off
Did he achieve some other strategic goal and or increase his power or wealth?
Is he putting it off for another season?
Con

Basically he would get a siege. Hoping that over time, the Ukrainian economy, morale and resolve weaken. Perhaps the Ukrainian Government falls, to be replaced by a pro-Russian faction.

This is kind of what the Communist block tried in Korea on the 38th parallel after the Korean War. But because of US/UN protection, it did not work. In the short term, the constant war footing was very hard on South Korea. But in the longer term, the near war footing became normalized. In fact, that situation continues to this day, and South Korea has thrived. The big difference with the Ukraine of course is that unlike in Korea, the US / UN would not be providing any direct protection.   
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 01:26:54 PM
Despite Moscow's announcement that some of its troops are now returning to their bases, information released by Russia's Defense Ministry clarified that Russian units being withdrawn from Crimea are merely going back to their bases located near the Ukrainian border.

State media outlet Izvestia reported that the 3rd and 150th motor rifle divisions are based in Boguchar and Valuyki, located in the immediate vicinity of the border with Ukraine.  Only the 42nd division is returning back to Chechnya.


@ Con : Putin might get the opposite of his desires : more NATO power in Europe.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-says-russia-still-adding-troops-ukraine-build-up-2022-02-16/

NATO told its military commanders on Wednesday to draw up plans for new combat units in central and southeastern Europe, as it accused Russia of sending more troops to areas near Ukraine instead of withdrawing its forces.
The combat units, or 'battlegroups', could be set up in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia, diplomats said, in what would be the biggest shift in NATO's military posture since it moved troops to the Baltics and Poland following Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.


Also, most EU nations now can convince their population to increase military budgets.   I have a feeling NATO is more united than before this crisis, another thing Putin didn't count on.
If things stand like they are today it is my opinion he is the losing party and it will be difficult for state media to to put a positive spin on this.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 16, 2022, 01:35:51 PM
So as of today, if Putin gets the idea in his head that he will be seen as a loser if he doesn't invade...does he then give the order to invade?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 16, 2022, 01:37:11 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 01:26:54 PM

Also, most EU nations now can convince their population to increase military budgets.   I have a feeling NATO is more united than before this crisis, another thing Putin didn't count on.
If things stand like they are today it is my opinion he is the losing party and it will be difficult for state media to to put a positive spin on this.

I am wondering if Sweden and Finland are going to start looking hard at joining NATO.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 02:24:17 PM
Sweden and Finland have both felt threatened for several years now.  The PM of Finland states that: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-pm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-her-watch-2022-01-19/  From the article Finns have increased to 28%  from 20% in 2019.

Sweden has sent a garrison to Gotland, an island that dominates the Baltic, in 2016 and reinforced it lately.  Sweden also suspects Russia for the buzzing of its nuclear reactors and palace by drones.  https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44109/swedish-police-arrest-russian-national-accused-of-flying-drone-over-royal-palace  However, the Swedish Foriegn Minister is also saying no.  https://news.am/eng/news/687130.html 

Whatever they state about membership, co-operation is increasing with NATO (from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49594.htm  )

Finland is one of six countries (known as 'Enhanced Opportunity Partners'1 under the Partnership Interoperability Initiative) that make particularly significant contributions to NATO operations and other Alliance objectives. As such, the country has enhanced opportunities for dialogue and cooperation with the Allies.
In the current security context of heightened concerns about Russian military and non‑military activities, NATO has stepped up cooperation with partner countries Finland and Sweden, with a particular focus on ensuring security in the Baltic Sea region. This includes: regular political dialogue and consultations; exchanges of information on hybrid warfare; coordinating training and exercises; and developing better joint situational awareness to address common threats and develop joint actions, if needed. Both partners participate in the enhanced NATO Response Force (NRF) in a supplementary role and subject to national decisions. Additionally, both partners have signed a memorandum of understanding on Host Nation Support which, subject to a national decision, allows for logistical support to Allied forces located on, or in transit through, their territory during exercises or in a crisis.


I'll conclude with a post about what Putin is capable of https://www.hudson.org/research/12750-vladimir-putin-1999-russian-apartment-house-bombings-was-putin-responsible
Hudson Institute was set up by Herman Kahn and others from RAND.  The author, David Satter, is the sole survivor of five individuals who made claims that Putin is responsible for the bombings leading to the Second Chechen War, and the murdered include and Aleksander Litivenko, the KGB defector poisoned with Polonium-210 and the preminent Russian journalist, Anna Politkovskaya, shot dead in her apartment.  Two of the killings (including Litivenko) were killed with radioactive isotopes not available to run of the mill assassins and clearly planned to make a statement.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 02:31:08 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 16, 2022, 01:35:51 PM
So as of today, if Putin gets the idea in his head that he will be seen as a loser if he doesn't invade...does he then give the order to invade?

Current weather favors the defenders so it could be invading is no longer an option.


State media are trying to make it look as if Russia already achieved their goals : 

They were pleased with German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who played down the likelihood of Ukraine joining NATO in the foreseeable future during Monday's press conference in Kyiv.

Appearing on state TV show 'The Evening with Vladimir Soloviev', political scientist and Professor of Communications Dmitry Evstafiev boasted: "We won this round. We won this debut, it's evident from the way they are taking a step back.  The West suddenly started to talk to us. They haven't spoken to us in years. More than that, serious divisions manifested within the European Union. Colossal divisions within NATO."
On the same show : Karen Shakhnazarov said that "Putin was clearly bluffing and Russia isn't militarily ready for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but the strategy of intimidation through Moscow's show of force is working wonders. : It's exhausting them, it's exhausting the West and draining its energy."

Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the state media outlet RT tweeted "The boss never works according to someone else's schedule. And he doesn't do what he is told to do... We demonstrated everything we wanted to.  The devastating impact of Putin's war games on Ukraine's economy brings me pleasure".


We know state media speak the words Putin wants people to hear, so I hope this indicates, for now, the worst won't happen.


@ Uberhaus : the list is much longer.

https://www.amazon.com/Orders-Kill-Regime-Political-Murder/dp/1250119340  Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/23/here-are-ten-critics-of-vladimir-putin-who-died-violently-or-in-suspicious-ways/
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 03:30:16 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 02:31:08 PM
@ Uberhaus : the list is much longer.

https://www.amazon.com/Orders-Kill-Regime-Political-Murder/dp/1250119340  Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/23/here-are-ten-critics-of-vladimir-putin-who-died-violently-or-in-suspicious-ways/
Of course, but the apartment bombings are the most egregious with over 300 dead and 1000 injured.  Their only crime against the state was living in the wrong place.  He clearly has no respect for human life even among his own people.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 16, 2022, 03:37:49 PM
What does Putin get for his trouble? In no particular order.

1.) He shows off what he can do, for the sake of future intimidation politics.

2.) He probably gets to collect direct control of those new eastern republics which are largely pro-Russian anyway. (This could even have been his main target.)

3.) Having a strengthened NATO on his western border gives him more internal justification for tyrannical power for safety's sake. Remember, up through Putin's day the main strategic benefit of building fortified sectors was not for defense, but to stage invasions out of, and he's clearly thinking about that because he has consistently tried to paint Ukraine as a staging area for NATO to invade Russia: the same fortified sector strategy but in reverse against him. Using border threats to convince one's population to stop grumbling about an iron-handed rule, has been part of the general autocratic playbook for much longer than Putin (and the previous Soviet Union).

4.) If the Ukraine regards the West's response as insufficient for its own security (oh, yay, the US deployed part of the 82nd Airborne to Poland's border with the Ukraine, where they will be both completely useless and unlikely to get run over by Russia), they're more likely to shift focus to playing nice with Russia. With so much shared border, there's only one way that ends: with Ukraine as a puppet state sooner or later. But if that's going to happen anyway, better to string it out more peacefully and at least play for time (from Ukraine's perspective).

5.) Testing an 'immune response' from potential victims has also been a standard autocratic strategy for much longer than Putin. Based on RT's spin, they're happy with the strategic intelligence they've picked up.

6.) Bonus: doing 150 thousand pushups not only gives you any social benefits of flexing on your neighbor, it also equals exercise for your arms! Might as well maximize some diplomatic multi-purposes out of your training maneuvers, and iron out any current problems with the logistic network in that area. Sure it's expensive, but this is Russia: they traditionally practice at this scale. And if it leads to gaining effective control over Ukraine without an exponentially-more-expensive invasion, then the exercise has been super-cost effective.

7.) Bonus: scaring the Ukrainian leadership into leaving the country, even if only temporarily, makes them look like cowards who won't stand to fight with their people.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 03:50:48 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 03:30:16 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 02:31:08 PM
@ Uberhaus : the list is much longer.

https://www.amazon.com/Orders-Kill-Regime-Political-Murder/dp/1250119340  Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/23/here-are-ten-critics-of-vladimir-putin-who-died-violently-or-in-suspicious-ways/
Of course, but the apartment bombings are the most egregious with over 300 dead and 1000 injured.  Their only crime against the state was living in the wrong place.  He clearly has no respect for human life even among his own people.

And still is he isn't the worst Soviet/Russian leader but that one is his inspiration.   

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/06/13/putins-dangerous-campaign-rehabilitate-stalin/

In reality, the misdeeds of Putin's regime pale in comparison to the scale of Stalin's crimes. But increasingly, the Russian president is actively rehabilitating the Soviet dictator's record, working to paint him as a strong leader who saved the world from fascism. The goal is to bolster Putin's own "strongman" leadership style in the eyes of ordinary Russians.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/10/vladimir-putin-russia-rehabilitating-stalin-soviet-past

Vladimir Putin's rise to power came accompanied by a new version of patriotism relying on "heroic" and "bright" aspects of the Soviet past. An image of Stalin as a strong leader who had ensured victory in the second world war and led a Soviet superpower re-emerged. Television propaganda again worked hard to create that image. The millions who perished in waves of political repression were pushed to the margins of collective consciousness.

Today, the 1989 liberation of eastern Europe, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the cold war are understood by many Russians in terms of defeat, disaster even. No wonder, given that Putin has called the fall of the Soviet Union "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century. Today Stalin's face watches you ubiquitously from billboards, subway train walls, and bookstore windows. Dozens of monuments to him have sprouted around Russia.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 04:26:10 PM
@Pete Dero

One must have one's evil role models, I guess.  Kruschev ended Stalin's cult of personality (and gave Crimea to the Ukraine) so who knows when Stalin's legacy will change again.  The Russian people aren't stupid; they are smart especially at keeping their mouth's shut. 

From the link at https://www.amazon.com/Orders-Kill-Regime-Political-Murder/dp/1250119340  The blurb for the book states:  "(Amy Knight) shows that terrorist attacks in Russia, as well as the Boston Marathon bombing in the U.S., are part of the same campaign."  I'm not sure what is being insinuated here and hopefully my first impression is wrong.  All I can pull up info wise is that the FSB warned the FBI about the main perpetrator.  Do you have any other links explaining this statement further? 

As to continuing provocations from the Jerusalem Post: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russia-claims-mass-civilian-graves-found-in-donbas/ar-AATWAYt?ocid=msedgntp

Russia's Investigative Committee claimed on Wednesday that mass graves of hundreds of Russian-speaking civilians had been found in the Donbas region, as the Russian government continued to accuse Ukraine of genocide and human rights violations in Donbas.
and


On Tuesday, the Russian TASS news site reported that an attempted terrorist attack had been thwarted in Luhansk, a city controlled by pro-Russian separatists in the disputed Donbas region.

According to the report, an improvised explosive device was discovered in a trash can in the city where a rally for the Russian Memorial Day of soldiers-internationalists, which commemorates those soldiers who fell while operating abroad, was planned.

The Ministry of State Security of the Luhansk People's Republic stated that the alleged explosive device could have caused civilian casualties if it had not been found and neutralized.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 16, 2022, 05:17:26 PM
so its taken 8 years to find a mass grave.....  ::)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 17, 2022, 05:29:55 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 16, 2022, 04:26:10 PM
From the link at https://www.amazon.com/Orders-Kill-Regime-Political-Murder/dp/1250119340  The blurb for the book states:  "(Amy Knight) shows that terrorist attacks in Russia, as well as the Boston Marathon bombing in the U.S., are part of the same campaign."  I'm not sure what is being insinuated here and hopefully my first impression is wrong.  All I can pull up info wise is that the FSB warned the FBI about the main perpetrator.  Do you have any other links explaining this statement further? 

I believe this part of the book is more speculation than proof.  She claims Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the older of the April 2013 Boston Marathon bombing brothers, may have been a Russian agent, recruited by the FSB.  On Jan. 21, 2012, Tsarnaev flew to Russia, 15 months before the Marathon bombing. Some are alleging that Tsarnaev was sent there to aid counter-terrorism operations against Russian Islamic radicals.   There is no definitive evidence to back this claim.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/10/us/russia-failed-to-share-details-on-boston-marathon-bombing-suspect.html

Parts from the book :

On November 6, 2011, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the older of the two brothers who would carry out the
bombings in Boston, purchased a one-way ticket on Aeroflot from New York's Kennedy Airport to
Moscow. Although the FBI had been warned earlier in the year by the Russian FSB that Tamerlan was a
security risk because of his politically extreme views, U.S. agents concluded, after interviews with him
and his family, that the FSB message did not warrant anything more than putting Tamerlan's name on a
watch list of the Customs and Border Protection Service (CBP) in the event of his international travel.

But the FSB had apparently given two incorrect birth dates for Tsarnaev, and the transliteration from
Cyrillic of his last name that appeared on the watch list was Tsarnayev, with an extra y. On the day of his
travel, January 12, 2012, the CBP was apparently overtaxed with possibly suspicious travelers, so
Tamerlan went through customs and immigration unimpeded. He arrived at Moscow's Sheremetevo
Airport the next day and was back six months later, on July 17, 2012

According to a report by the U.S. House Homeland Security Committee issued in April 2015:
"Customs and Border Protection [CBP] failed to place Tamerlan Tsarnaev into secondary screening upon
exiting and re-entering the United States. Additionally, it is unclear as to whether a CBP JTTF [Joint
Terrorism Task Force] officer notified the FBI Agent who had conducted the Tamerlan Tsarnaev
assessment regarding his travel."2 In other words, U.S. security authorities missed the boat.
Now, more than four years after the bombings, Tamerlan Tsarnaev's sojourn in Russia has remained
a mystery. But a close look at the facts surrounding his 2012 trip, as well as his contacts in Boston, point
strongly to Russian involvement in the terrible tragedy that occurred in Boston. I have already
demonstrated, with the 1999 bombings and other attacks in Russia, how the Kremlin, through its
extensive infiltration into the underground insurgent movements in the North Caucasus, has used
terrorism to further its own political goals. I believe the Boston Marathon case is another example of this
strategy, this time exported to the United States

In the letter, the Russian government expressed concern that he [Tamerlan] had become
radicalized and that he might return to Russia and join extremist groups there. While lacking
compelling derogatory information on exactly why he posed a threat, the letter contained detailed
biographical information on Tamerlan Tsarnaev and his mother, including physical addresses,
marital status, [and] online social media profiles, and discussed his history as a boxer. The letter
also noted that he had previously hoped to travel to the Palestinian territories to wage jihad, but
decided not to go because he did not speak Arabic. The letter requested that the FBI notify the
Russian government if Tamerlan Tsarnaev attempted to travel to Russia.20
One question that immediately arises is why and how the FSB had gathered so much information on
Tamerlan and his family, given that they had lived outside Russia for several years. Clearly, the FSB had
earmarked Tamerlan for surveillance, but for what purpose? Did the Russian security services send this
memorandum as a sort of "fishing expedition" to find out what the FBI knew about him? They gave the
wrong birth date for Tamerlan: Why? Was it just a careless error?

One crucial fact overlooked by those who have investigated the Boston bombings is that Tamerlan
arrived in Moscow in January 2012, but, according to his aunt, Patimat Suleimanova, he did not show up
in Makhachkala, where she and the rest of Tamerlan's extended family lived, until March, and his father,
Anzor, only arrived there in May.30 Yet Anzor insisted that he had been together with Tamerlan the
entire time the latter stayed in Russia. He told reporters "When he came here [to Makhachkala] he was
with me, worked in the apartment, broke concrete walls. We bought an old apartment and did repairs
there. He was with me. He did not go anywhere. He did not communicate with anybody."31
So how do we account for the period between January and March 2012? Akhmed Zakaev insisted to
me that the only explanation was that Tamerlan was in Moscow during these two months, doubtless
being sustained financially and interviewed continually by the FSB. As Zakaev told me, it is not difficult
to see the Russians' motive, given that they had the upcoming Olympics in Sochi in early 2014 and
people were beginning to question the Russians' ability to keep Sochi secure. With an attack on
American soil, the focus would change—to the global problem of terrorism, on which Russia and the
U.S. could cooperate
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 17, 2022, 10:41:07 AM
An uptick in shelling in Donbas this morning. CNN reports that a nursery school was hit and that there are two civilian casualties.

Reuters reports:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shelling-breaks-out-east-ukraine-west-moscow-dispute-troop-moves-2022-02-17/
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 17, 2022, 11:09:12 AM
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement following the delivery of Russia's formal response to a written document from the US over Russia's security demands.

The statement said, "On February 17 of this year, US Ambassador J. Sullivan, invited to @MID_Russia [the Russian MFA], was given a reaction to the previously received American response on the Russian draft treaty between Russia and the United States on security guarantees."

The statement was posted on the ministry's Telegram account:

    "❗ We state that the American side did not give a constructive response to the basic elements of the draft treaty with the United States prepared by the Russian side on security guarantees.
    The package nature of Russian proposals was ignored, from which "convenient" topics were deliberately chosen, which, in turn, were "twisted" in the direction of creating advantages for the United States and its allies.
    The growing military activity of the United States and NATO directly at Russian borders is alarming.
    ☝️ In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees to ensure our security from the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures."
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 17, 2022, 12:08:03 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 17, 2022, 05:29:55 AM
I believe this part of the book is more speculation than proof.  She claims Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the older of the April 2013 Boston Marathon bombing brothers, may have been a Russian agent, recruited by the FSB.  On Jan. 21, 2012, Tsarnaev flew to Russia, 15 months before the Marathon bombing. Some are alleging that Tsarnaev was sent there to aid counter-terrorism operations against Russian Islamic radicals.   There is no definitive evidence to back this claim.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/10/us/russia-failed-to-share-details-on-boston-marathon-bombing-suspect.html


These were very ugly allegations by Knight, but as you state there is no definitive evidence.  Tsarnaev's missing time is not definitive evidence.  Not like the clear evidence of SVR involvement in the Salisbury and Litvinenko poisonings in the UK.  Possibly, Tsarnaev worked for the FSB in Chechnya and then acted on his own in the US.  I can't see how what he was doing in early 2012 can be known to the US or if he ever cooperates whether his story can be confirmed or even believed.  I'll read Knight's book and comment if I find anything worthwhile or sensationalist.  Thanks for the info.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 17, 2022, 12:16:51 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 17, 2022, 10:41:07 AM
An uptick in shelling in Donbas this morning. CNN reports that a nursery school was hit and that there are two civilian casualties.

Reuters reports:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shelling-breaks-out-east-ukraine-west-moscow-dispute-troop-moves-2022-02-17/
Strong statement by a cnn analyst firner deputy director of national intelligence that the Russians knew what they were doing by targeting the kindergarten and are goading the Ukrainians into a response. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 17, 2022, 01:22:15 PM
^Yes that is f'd up.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 17, 2022, 01:42:31 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 16, 2022, 02:31:08 PM

...
Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the state media outlet RT tweeted "The boss never works according to someone else's schedule. And he doesn't do what he is told to do... "
...


"the boss"?  Reminds me of that scene from the movie "Enemy at the Gates" where Khrushchev toasts a huge wall sized portrait of Stalin as "the boss." 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 17, 2022, 01:44:38 PM
^I bet Putin has a painting of Stalin in his royal watercloset that is twice as big.

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at the UN earlier today:

"I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one. The information I presented here is validated by what we've seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months. And remember that while Russia has repeatedly derided our warnings and alarms as melodrama and nonsense, they've been steadily amassing more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine's borders as well as the capabilities to conduct a massive military assault. It isn't just us seeing this. Allies and partners see the same thing," Blinken said.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 17, 2022, 04:20:25 PM
At least Stalin kept his shirt on in public.  :clap:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 17, 2022, 04:25:51 PM
He also wrote the book on raping Ukraine and draining it of all its resources, with the added bonus of starving it at the same time.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 17, 2022, 07:11:07 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 17, 2022, 04:25:51 PM
He also wrote the book on raping Ukraine and draining it of all its resources, with the added bonus of starving it at the same time.

Fresh off my 24 hour old divorce I am about to go on a date with the person who actually did write a book on that.   8)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 17, 2022, 07:40:10 PM
 :bd:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 17, 2022, 07:43:40 PM
Nice D. Get some!
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 17, 2022, 09:17:47 PM
Best news in the thread so far.  Have fun.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 17, 2022, 10:25:50 PM
Atta Boy SirAndrew! Get back on that horse for another ride.  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 17, 2022, 11:21:58 PM
Ha! Thanks guys.  It was pretty successful.  Nice talking talking to a fellow history academic, and cool because I studied under her in my college days (no, we're not far apart in age).

We mulled a lot over the Russia thing, none of our opinions particularly positive.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 18, 2022, 10:20:48 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 17, 2022, 11:21:58 PM
because I studied under her in my college days

too easy to joke about  >:D.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 18, 2022, 10:21:28 AM
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-oversee-nuclear-drills-during-standoff-over-ukraine-2022-02-18/
https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/18/putin-to-oversee-military-drills-as-tensions-mount-over-ukraine

MOSCOW, Feb 18 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin will oversee exercises by Russia's nuclear forces on Saturday involving the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles, the defence ministry said, in its latest show of strength at a time of acute tension with the West over Ukraine.

The drills aim to "test the state of readiness" of the forces involved and the "reliability of strategic nuclear and non-nuclear weapons", the ministry said.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 18, 2022, 11:04:48 AM
^Crap  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 18, 2022, 11:54:16 AM
From:  https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60428211


Visiting Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko will take part in major Russian drills on Saturday alongside President Vladimir Putin.

Russian state TV has shown an exchange between the two, in which Putin was seen saying: "There is an active phase of combat exercises. Tomorrow we will even take part in one of the serious events in this military co-operation complex."

Lukashenko responded: "We will take part, yes, in these events. It is also a part of our lives, the lives of our Belarusians and Russians."


There doesn't seem to be much discussion of Belorus participating in an invasion of Ukraine.  Of course, the Belorus military is smaller than Ukraine's but even a small Belorussian force would not be insignificant when added to the nearly 200 000 Russian troops.  With the close ties of Putin and Lukashenko and the support given to Lukashenko in July of last year during the unrest in Belorus, it may be possible that Belorus forces attack as well. 
Hopefully, that idea is, as the Germans say "someone took a Scheiße in your head and forgot to flush it."
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 18, 2022, 11:57:53 AM
Are Putin's nipples 20 megaton or 30 megaton? Anybody know?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 18, 2022, 11:59:43 AM
5000
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 18, 2022, 12:01:13 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 18, 2022, 11:54:16 AM
Visiting Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko will take part in major Russian drills on Saturday alongside President Vladimir Putin.

Lukashenko is the leader of Belarus in name only.  His only option to remain dictator is to do what Putin demands.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 18, 2022, 01:50:16 PM
From CNN's Tim Lister and Olga Voitovych in Kyiv

Ukraine and US say vehicle explosion in separatist-controlled city was staged

Ukrainian and US officials said a vehicle explosion in a Russian-backed separatist stronghold was a staged attack designed to stoke tensions in eastern Ukraine.

Video from the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine showed a fire in a parking lot and badly damaged military vehicle, close to the headquarters of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) – one of the areas of the country controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

An official channel of the DPR said that "Around 19:00, a car was blown up in the parking lot near the Government House building. The blast wave was heard by the whole city. The Ministry of Emergency Situations went to the place of the explosion."

Images and video showed emergency services at the scene and a badly damaged vehicle identified by CNN as a Russian-made jeep. There's no way to verify what caused the damage to the vehicle or the fire.

"We think that this is a staging and a provocation," Anton Gerashchenko, advisor to the Ukrainian Interior Minister, told CNN on WhatsApp. A US State Department spokesperson described it as a "false flag operation" and said incidents like the vehicle explosion and calls from separatist leaders to evacuate because of alleged Ukrainian aggression represented "further attempts to obscure through lies and disinformation that Russia is the aggressor in this conflict."


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/separatists-eastern-ukraine-say-car-blown-up-near-rebel-hq-tass-2022-02-18/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/18/russia-ukraine-news-crisis-latest-putin-biden-kyiv-russian-invasion-threat-troops-border-live-updates
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 18, 2022, 05:19:44 PM
I think it's appropriate to share what Wikipedia has as a representative image of a "Soldier of the Special Forces of Belarus".


(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/103-vdv-vitebsk-01.jpg/800px-103-vdv-vitebsk-01.jpg)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 18, 2022, 06:01:17 PM
Looks like he is firing blanks
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 18, 2022, 06:03:31 PM
surprised he isnt flipping off a wall while throwing a hatchet.  ::)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Dammit Carl! on February 18, 2022, 07:37:22 PM
Their soldier presentations where they do dumb shit like that for the public is fun to watch.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 18, 2022, 07:41:15 PM
for a good laugh theres a russian tank competition show. 
ah, Tank Biathlon.  the commentator is a rare one.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: al_infierno on February 18, 2022, 09:11:38 PM
You can tell it's photoshopped because somebody removed the hard liquor from the picture.   :-"
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 18, 2022, 10:29:04 PM
The Belarus military doesn't have the combat experience of the Russians and the Ukranians but they have proven that they can beat down a civilian uprising.  Even if they're used for canon fodder or whatever, Russian units will be able to do something else.  Also, Russian units in Moldava though tied down against the small Moldovan army, might demonstrate on the border with Ukraine or make themselves a nuisance.

The EU are taking Belarus participation seriously.  https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60428211/page/2
"A senior European Union official has said that the bloc is considering new sanctions against Belarus if it takes part in any Russian military invasion of Ukraine, a senior EU official told Reuters.

Sanctions on Belarus were imposed after President Alexander Lukashenko crushed protests following elections in 2020, and have been tightened since."

I watched Lt. Col. (ret.) Vindman on CNN with the US ambassador to Ukraine.  While the ambassador said the usual diplomatic nicities, Col Vindman stated that his contacts tell him that the Ukranian President has not prepared the Ukranian people and more importantly allowed the military to prepare (field work, bridge demolitions).  He said he understood the need for calm and to prevent the fleeing of investment.  He doesn't think that Zelenskyy will last more than a few weeks and will be replaced by a pro-Russian.  Then it will be a whole different world, he finished.  Unfortunately, the video isn't posted anywhere that I can find. 

For good news, the US State Dep't has approved the sale of $6 billion arm sale including 250 M1A2s sepV3 to Poland.  I can't quite predict whether Poland will attack Russia or Germany first when they get them.  Now that's a funny joke.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: z1812 on February 18, 2022, 11:00:14 PM
Mod edit: c'mon Z, you know better than that.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 18, 2022, 11:16:48 PM
I'll leave it at this.
dont wander into politics and dont stray into it with that asshat racist moron.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 19, 2022, 09:55:27 PM
Well, while I haven't heard any dirt-level information on the backfield logistics being buffed up to invasion support levels on the Russian side, I did hear two more things today regarding border developments that do not bode well.

1.) Russian hospital groups are being moved up to the border. That could still be considered maneuvers, technically, but they haven't done hospital combat maneuvers during all their training up to now (so I heard). And I know full well that the Russians know full well that if you're about to invade someone, you want all your hospitals up close to the line, not defensively spread in the backfield. This goes back at least as far as Zhukov's blitz preparations in August of 1939 against Japan. At best, that's a diplomatic signal to the other side that D-Day may now measure in H-Hours (so to speak).

2.) The Russians are evacuating Russian Ukrainians from near the Russian-controlled side of the border, back deeper in-country. This is also fully evocative of large-scale preparation for invading over the border -- for example the Nazis started doing this a couple of weeks before Barbarossa, mainly so that they could push their invasion forces right up to the go-line with as few unorganized people in the way as possible. (The Soviets were doing the same on the other side at the same time, and recognized in their scouting reports that the Nazis doing so was an invasion preparation.)

Now I'm wondering how much barbed wire, or any defensive impediment equivalents thereof, remain on the Russian side of the border...  :(
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 20, 2022, 05:27:06 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 19, 2022, 09:55:27 PM
2.) The Russians are evacuating Russian Ukrainians from near the Russian-controlled side of the border, back deeper in-country.

Has all the signs of another false flag operation (or they invented time travel)

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-19-22-intl/h_ce9740910a589f378762a6c2c3664e53
https://www.axios.com/telegram-ukraine-russia-separatists-evacuation-23c418ef-cd60-4ab7-afdf-6f3260102a4a.html

Metadata from the messaging app Telegram indicates that pro-Russian separatist leaders created videos ordering "emergency" evacuations from eastern Ukraine two days ago, but posted them on Friday, Bellingcat first reported and Axios can confirm.


Denis Pushilin, leader of the breakaway Donetsk state in eastern Ukraine, said on his video appeal that "today, Feb. 18, a mass centralized evacuation of the population to the Russian Federation has been organized." Shortly afterwards, Leonid Pasechnik, the most senior official in the Luhansk People's Republic, announced a similar move.

In his video, Pushilin also claimed that a large-scale offensive by Ukrainian forces against the Donetsk People's Republic was imminent, a claim the Ukrainian authorities have strenuously denied.

CNN downloaded the videos from Telegram and checked their metadata.
Both video files have "Wednesday 16" as their creation date, meaning that they were recorded at least two days before they were posted on Telegram.
The platform preserves metadata for the videos posted there and it cannot be changed.



You can't ask people to evacuate because of an explosion when that bomb will go off 2 days later, unless you are also the one planning the explosion.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: z1812 on February 20, 2022, 06:40:28 AM
Quote from: z1812 on February 18, 2022, 11:00:14 PM
Mod edit: c'mon Z, you know better than that.

The above comment doesn't indicate why my post was censored.

I posted a link to a Tucker Carlson Fox News video, just the link, without comment. The following poster uses the term "racist asshat moron", in regards to the programs commentator, who made no racist comments whatsoever ever during the video, yet I am the one whose post is censored.

The video was critical, in a very sarcastic way, of what the commentator regarded as foolish panic regarding the Ukraine situation. I am not an American. Did I violate some unwritten rule. Is linking to Fox News articles forbidden on this forum?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 20, 2022, 09:55:57 AM
^z1812....didn't you know? The most popular broadcaster in the country is a "racist asshat moron".

In any event, the video clearly crosses the line into what we would consider R&P and we have prohibited that kind of content until further notice. I have not viewed any of the other links posted from "news" sources, but as I have already warned in this thread, I expect all material and content to be focused on the strategic or tactical implications of the stand off and potential confrontation.

Everybody be mature and use your best judgment and common sense.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2022, 09:57:38 AM
PM sent to give further backround Z.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 20, 2022, 10:14:41 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/20/ukraine-crisis-russia-plans-biggest-war-since-1945-says-johnson-zelenskiy-calls-for-sanctions-now-live?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-extends-belarus-drills-for-thousands-of-troops-as-ukraine-violence-escalates-11645364792

Russian military exercises in Belarus 'will continue indefinitely' ...
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 20, 2022, 10:41:34 AM
Quote from: z1812 on February 20, 2022, 06:40:28 AM
The video was critical, in a very sarcastic way, of what the commentator regarded as foolish panic regarding the Ukraine situation. I am not an American. Did I violate some unwritten rule. Is linking to Fox News articles forbidden on this forum?

If I might make an overture about "foolish panic".  The modern Russian state has a proven history of attacking its neighbours.  After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation has used military force against: 
1992
Moldova
Tajikistan
Domestically in the Northern Caucasus
1999
Chechnya (again a domestic war)
2008
Georgia
Ukraine 2014
Syria 2015

This is a clear pattern of aggression, and after the "polite" 'little green men" in Crimea it is hard for anyone to believe the Russian government's claim that there will be no invasion of Ukraine.  Especially, with so much military force encircling Ukraine. 
It was hoped that Europe had moved on from the 19th and 20th centuries changing of borders with military force to the rule of international law. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 20, 2022, 10:56:02 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 20, 2022, 10:41:34 AM
Quote from: z1812 on February 20, 2022, 06:40:28 AM
The video was critical, in a very sarcastic way, of what the commentator regarded as foolish panic regarding the Ukraine situation. I am not an American. Did I violate some unwritten rule. Is linking to Fox News articles forbidden on this forum?

If I might make an overture about "foolish panic".  The modern Russian state has a proven history of attacking its neighbours.  After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation has used military force against: 
1992
Moldova
Tajikistan
Domestically in the Northern Caucasus
1999
Chechnya (again a domestic war)
2008
Georgia
Ukraine 2014
Syria 2015

This is a clear pattern of aggression, and after the "polite" 'little green men" in Crimea it is hard for anyone to believe the Russian government's claim that there will be no invasion of Ukraine.  Especially, with so much military force encircling Ukraine. 
It was hoped that Europe had moved on from the 19th and 20th centuries changing of borders with military force to the rule of international law.

I think this argument is debatable and it's a slippery slope. It is not appropriate for this thread.

Please move on or the thread will be locked.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 20, 2022, 11:36:26 AM
Wilco
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 20, 2022, 01:02:11 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 20, 2022, 11:36:26 AM
Wilco

Thanks, bro.  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2022, 01:19:28 PM
very hard topic to not get political with because of the history and future ramifications.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 20, 2022, 01:32:06 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2022, 01:19:28 PM
very hard topic to not get political with because of the history and future ramifications.

Agreed. But that is the rule for now. There is plenty to discuss from a military and strategic perspective without getting into inflammatory political debate.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 20, 2022, 03:37:48 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 19, 2022, 09:55:27 PM
Well, while I haven't heard any dirt-level information on the backfield logistics being buffed up to invasion support levels on the Russian side, I did hear two more things today regarding border developments that do not bode well.
....

Not certain we would ever hear the detail about logistics. The only news correspondents on the ground seem to only have a very narrow field of vision so far. I am guessing that we are only seeing what the two sides want us to see. 

The US seems to be remarkably open about what intel is showing. The opinions I have heard from the various media talking heads are that this openness is meant to unsettle Russian preparations and rally Western opinions.

The US is reporting that Russian units are moving to their jump off locations. Interesting that this news synched with the Beijing Olympics closing ceremony...maybe there was a connection after all.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-has-intel-that-russian-troops-have-orders-to-invade-ukraine-report/ar-AAU6hkz?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-has-intel-that-russian-troops-have-orders-to-invade-ukraine-report/ar-AAU6hkz?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 20, 2022, 03:47:28 PM
(https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article26282753.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/0_Operation-Z-Russia-6-east2west-news.jpg)  (https://salten.cz/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Mysterious-%E2%80%98Z-Painted-on-Russian-Tanks-Closing-in-on-Ukraine-364x156.jpeg)(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIF.x%252ffLeRzmfelCuDjXPIGMvQ%26pid%3DApi&f=1)
On social media and some news sites pictures like those above are showing Russian armoured tanks and vehicles marked with the letter "Z" that are heading to the Ukrainian border.
One explanation is that they have been marked with the distinctive white letter inside a square box in an attempt to avoid friendly fire if war breaks out, because the Ukrainians have very similar tanks and vehicles.

Does this sound plausible ?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 20, 2022, 05:47:51 PM
^That's interesting and the first I have read about it.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 20, 2022, 06:27:49 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 20, 2022, 03:47:28 PM
On social media and some news sites pictures like those above are showing Russian armoured tanks and vehicles marked with the letter "Z" that are heading to the Ukrainian border.
One explanation is that they have been marked with the distinctive white letter inside a square box in an attempt to avoid friendly fire if war breaks out, because the Ukrainians have very similar tanks and vehicles.

Does this sound plausible ?

Yes, plausible. Particularly if the pro-Russian separatists and maybe even Belarus forces participate in the invasion. Might help eliminate friendly fire incidents. But I really don't know...just speculation.

This article from the UK's "The Sun" agrees with that idea: 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17710288/russia-operation-z-ukraine-border-invasion/ (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17710288/russia-operation-z-ukraine-border-invasion/)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 20, 2022, 07:51:24 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 20, 2022, 05:47:51 PM
^That's interesting and the first I have read about it.
It seems to be very new.  Trivial but there is no uppercase 'Z' in the Cyrillic alphabet, 'Z' looks like the Arabic numeral '3', so it may just be a pattern of lines.  It is a disturbing development especially with the intelligence about local commanders being ordered to prepare their local manoeuvres for invasion.

As to Putin's meeting with Xi, Xi wouldn't have wanted his Olympics messed up but they definitely spent time discussing trade.  I think China would be more than happy to buy Russian energy and goods.  My napkin calculus makes me think that the losses to Russia's economy from Western sanctions will be less than what is gained by controlling Ukraine.  Ukraine's GNP was $147.7 billion for 2020, and it has had it's economy refurbished by western investment.  Kharkiv has the Antonov and Morozev and Malyshev (tank factories), nuclear plant parts and electronics manufacturing.  Ukraine was the bread basket of the USSR, Putin has said "Ukraine was the crown jewel of the USSR."  Then, if in the face of sanctions, Putin can sell energy and goods to China rather than the West, there will only be a relatively short period of economic pain for normal Russians.  The Russian elite will have problems with their foreign held wealth but that will not affect them that greatly.  It would be interesting to hear the comments of someone with real economic knowledge about my premises.

I'm going to go full Chicken Little here for a moment. I will never be so glad to be called a fool in two weeks time but here goes.  If Russia invades they will respond to the West's sanctions with cyber attacks, the FBI and DHS believes so  https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-fbi-and-dhs-warn-us-officials-of-possible-russian-cyber-attacks-linked-to-invasion-of-ukraine-220516786.html  The removal from SWIFT, the international banking transfer system will be received very badly.  I wish all of our cyber enemies the illest of luck, however, we should respect their ability to damage our society and they may get lucky in a small area.  Maybe consider backing up your private financials onto a hard copy seperate from the internet.  Be prepared to possibly lose utilities, as has happened in Ukraine.  A good short guide for preparing for such events was published by the Swedish government: If War Comes(english) https://rib.msb.se/filer/pdf/28706.pdf  Being prepared isn't panicking.

Well, I look forward and hope to be called every epithet for fool, but in the meantime just take some small steps.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 20, 2022, 08:10:16 PM
Getting my solar panels installed tomorrow.
Hopefully not to late with the wall power unit
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 20, 2022, 09:29:19 PM
My brother (who got me into wargaming long ago when we were kids) is the chief vice president of a credit union, and told us yesterday that Russian sources have been trying to hack the credit union an average of five times a day recently. But the c-u has really good IT and very expensive anti-hack protection, so (as far as they can tell) the probes have not gotten in.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 20, 2022, 10:07:51 PM
The Russian cyber threat to American energy utilities is very real.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 20, 2022, 11:43:22 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 20, 2022, 10:07:51 PM
The Russian cyber threat to American energy utilities is very real.
They will be taking precautions and are forewarned.  As Jason Pratt has stated the banks have good protection.  The US has capable cyber warfare groups, however some small areas and some countries may get overwhelmed if there preparations are not sufficient (I'm looking at you Canada).  In the first few days of an invasion, the best cyber warfare units will be targeting Ukrainian C3I, air defence, power utilities and government.  The criminal hackers will look for opportunities. Personally, I am just taking precautions for something I hope doesn't happen.
Anyway, there is a report that Macron of France, is trying to broker a summit.  So far Biden has agreed to meet with Putin.  Hopefully, when we wake up Putin will have agreed to the summit as well.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60454818
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 21, 2022, 08:57:35 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 20, 2022, 03:47:28 PM
(https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article26282753.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/0_Operation-Z-Russia-6-east2west-news.jpg)  (https://salten.cz/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Mysterious-%E2%80%98Z-Painted-on-Russian-Tanks-Closing-in-on-Ukraine-364x156.jpeg)(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIF.x%252ffLeRzmfelCuDjXPIGMvQ%26pid%3DApi&f=1)
On social media and some news sites pictures like those above are showing Russian armoured tanks and vehicles marked with the letter "Z" that are heading to the Ukrainian border.
One explanation is that they have been marked with the distinctive white letter inside a square box in an attempt to avoid friendly fire if war breaks out, because the Ukrainians have very similar tanks and vehicles.

Does this sound plausible ?

I don't know what to think about those markings however the geek in me couldn't resist sharing this with you all after seeing the above pics.  The below image is taken from a unit mod for Civilization 3: Conquests by a very talented unit modder.   :)

(https://forums.civfanatics.com/attachments/shilka_cammo_big_8ve-png.436465/)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 21, 2022, 09:00:17 AM
Is that a ZSU-23-4 anti aircraft vehicle? I remember those from Gunship! and F19 Stealth Fighter.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 21, 2022, 09:04:52 AM
^Yes it is!  My respect for you just went up a couple of notches.  Good call.   :)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 21, 2022, 09:47:59 AM
😁
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 21, 2022, 11:14:35 AM
Not to derail this thread but have you every looked at a picture in real life (like those pictures of armored vehicles at the Ukrainian border) and then thought, "I really want to play game "x" now"?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 21, 2022, 11:35:19 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on February 21, 2022, 11:14:35 AM
Not to derail this thread but have you every looked at a picture in real life (like those pictures of armored vehicles at the Ukrainian border) and then thought, "I really want to play game "x" now"?

Yes.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 21, 2022, 01:10:09 PM
Same here too. I hated those damned things in A-10 Warthog back in my Amiga days.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MikeGER on February 21, 2022, 01:20:04 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on February 21, 2022, 11:14:35 AM
Not to derail this thread but have you every looked at a picture in real life (like those pictures of armored vehicles at the Ukrainian border) and then thought, "I really want to play game "x" now"?

happens almost every time i see a documentation about a conflict/military history  ...  esp Nam, Crusades , WW II, you name it  :-"
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: steve58 on February 21, 2022, 06:14:07 PM
Russian "peacekeepers" incoming (to the Ukraine)...
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 21, 2022, 06:35:20 PM
There is virtually no air traffic over the Ukraine presently. I'm tracking only three aircraft, with a fourth approaching the western border from Poland. Two of the planes are making a beeline for Romania.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 21, 2022, 06:43:38 PM
Quote from: steve58 on February 21, 2022, 06:14:07 PM
Russian "peacekeepers" incoming (to the Ukraine)...
The newly recognized independent Donetsk and Luhansk regions.  Did you catch any of Putin's speech?  His capacity for deception is incredible.  His eyes stare at a fixed point and don't move.  He's either reading off a teleprompter or just as likely trained to defeat NLP.   Scary things he said are that NATO controls Ukrainian forces, Ukraine is engaged in terrorism, and is attempting to build nuclear weapons with Western help.  He brought up Russian grievances like the fire that killed Russians in Odessa several years ago, stolen Soviet funds and more.  He even ordered the 'illegitimate' government in Kiev to stop its attacks.

Putin may not be that little Austrian corporal but I am reminded of what my Grandfather told me about what he heard on the short wave in the 1930s
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 21, 2022, 06:58:06 PM
I'll try and be 110% less histrionic than yesterday.  In his speech, Putin mentioned Odessa at least twice, the fire and allowing a shipyard going back to the Czarina to become decripid.  I don't think he is one to telegraph his moves but an amphibious assault there could link up with the Russian forces in Transdniestra which are isolated.  Or it could be deception.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JudgeDredd on February 22, 2022, 04:03:04 AM
You know, I don't know about other leaders - but I've just heard Boris Johnson talking and his words were  :uglystupid2:

"If Vladimir Putin continues...." - continues what mate? You said you'd have sanctions imposed if he invaded Ukraine. He HAS invaded Ukraine. The fact that you appear to be buying into his "these two areas are legitimate sovereign states" is neither here nor there. They were part of Ukraine and he's invaded.

That is the problem here. The West doesn't really have anything in it's arsenal - despite it's size and power. Without the will to use that military might, it means sod all.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not necessarily sanctioning WWIII here - but Putin knows the West will do nothing. The sanctions that are suspected to be used as a threat are probably ludicrous too. They'll hurt the West as well as Russia - and again, Putin probably knows this.

For years Russia has "embedded" itself in the financial, social and economic activities of western countries and he knows that any sanctions will be self harming to the West.

This has all been played out 84 years ago.

There goes my "sideline referee" take on it (Brits will know what that means).
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 22, 2022, 04:39:12 AM
The notion that Ukraine is not a country in its own right, but a historical part of Russia, appears to be deeply ingrained in the minds of many in the Russian leadership. Already long before the Ukraine crisis, at an April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, Vladimir Putin reportedly claimed that "Ukraine is not even a state! What is Ukraine? A part of its territory is in Eastern Europe, but another part, a considerable one, was a gift from us!"

In that logic the Baltic states could be next on his list, but unlike Ukraine they are NATO members.


These days I wonder how Europe would look like if Patton got his way in '45 and pulled it off some way.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 22, 2022, 07:13:31 AM
NY Times is reporting that Germany has indeed halted the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Karri on February 22, 2022, 08:50:32 AM
I bet Putin's next step is to officially integrate Belarus into Russia. All of this Ukraine stuff might just be smokes and mirrors for that.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 22, 2022, 09:13:22 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 21, 2022, 06:43:38 PM
Quote from: steve58 on February 21, 2022, 06:14:07 PM
Russian "peacekeepers" incoming (to the Ukraine)...
...  His eyes stare at a fixed point and don't move.  He's either reading off a teleprompter or just as likely trained to defeat NLP.   ...

I found that sentence to be very interesting.  Forgive my ignorance but what is NLP? 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 22, 2022, 09:37:14 AM
A tremendous amount of military aviation over Europe at the moment and this is only those with active transponders. Much more fighter activity than I typically see. I'm tracking F-15s, F-16s, Eurofighters, T-45s and A-104s. i even see B-52s over the North Sea and a shit-ton of transport aircraft. C-130s, C-5s, C-17s, etc. I see an E-3 Sentry over Poland and Stratotankers over Germany...and choppers, loads of choppers. I'm actually tracking MI-24s over Czechia, Apaches in the Netherlands and chinooks and merlins in the UK.  A VERY impressive show.

I really hope FedEx gets my order from Virpil into the air and out of Lithuania before the situation deteriorates further.  :hide:                                     
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 22, 2022, 09:56:16 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 22, 2022, 09:37:14 AM
A tremendous amount of military aviation over Europe at the moment and this is only those with active transponders. Much more fighter activity than I typically see. I'm tracking F-15s, F-16s, Eurofighters, T-45s and A-104s. i even see B-52s over the North Sea and a shit-ton of transport aircraft. C-130s, C-5s, C-17s, etc. I see an E-3 Sentry over Poland and Stratotankers over Germany...and choppers, loads of choppers. I'm actually tracking MI-24s over Czechia, Apaches in the Netherlands and chinooks and merlins in the UK.  A VERY impressive show.

I really hope FedEx gets my order from Virpil into the air and out of Lithuania before the situation deteriorates further.  :hide:                                   

Sounds like NATO is putting on a "show" and wants to be seen.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 11:29:09 AM
Very happy to hear about the airshow in Europe.

Quote from: W8taminute on February 22, 2022, 09:13:22 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 21, 2022, 06:43:38 PM
Quote from: steve58 on February 21, 2022, 06:14:07 PM
Russian "peacekeepers" incoming (to the Ukraine)...
...  His eyes stare at a fixed point and don't move.  He's either reading off a teleprompter or just as likely trained to defeat NLP.   ...

I found that sentence to be very interesting.  Forgive my ignorance but what is NLP?

Briefly, Neuro Linguistic Programming (https://nlp-mentor.com/eye-body-language/) is a technique that when used for interogation can determine whether someone is accessing memory or imagination.  For the majority of people looking up and to the left on being questioned indicates that one is accessing memory and telling the truth, while looking up and to the right is accessing imagination and lying.  This is all determinate on brain dominance and 'the tells' can be reversed so observation is required beforehand usually through questioning such as tell me about a time that you did such and such; make up a story for me.  It requires a lot of training and is quite hard to do, people who read a book and believe they can do it (like me) are frankly rather dangerous.  However, I did clearly see that Putin's eyes stayed fixed on one point, not looking up in either direction.
Micro expressions (very brief displays of emotion that the user is trying to conceal) are easier to use.  I did see clear unconcealed expressions of disgust/contempt (wrinkling of nose like to a bad smell) and anger (puffing up in size and showing teeth) during his tirade against Ukraine and the historical wrongs done to Russia.  He did seem to show an expression of exasperation with one of the leaders of the rebel areas when the document of Russian recognition was being signed.

On Putin's health a critic Valery Solovey claims Putin had surgery for cancer in February 2020 and may have Parkinson's https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8970989/Vladimir-Putin-underwent-surgery-cancer-February-critic-claims.html  He was arrested the month after https://www.wionews.com/world/valery-solovey-russian-pundit-who-raised-concerns-about-putins-health-arrested-348114  You might want to take that with a grain of salt though.  He has gained weight in the face and gut, that's clear to see.

This report is a bit disturbing that Putin might be on a 'sacred mission' https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/putin-ukraine-nato-eurasianism-1.6352998 


Matthew Schmidt is an associate professor and national security expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut. He said the emphasis NATO allies place on geopolitics and the rules-based international order may mean very little to Putin — who may be looking at the current standoff through a quasi-religious lens.

It's not enough, Schmidt said, to say Putin wants to reassemble the old Soviet Union. Putin is a subscriber to an early 20th century philosophical and political movement called Eurasianism, he said — a creed that rejects Russia's integration with Europe.

Eurasianism died out during communist rule but rebounded in the early 21st century — and Putin has written about it.

"He said this is quasi-religious ... the idea that there is sacred soil that exists outside of that, the territorial borders of Russia, and that what you need to do is regain that sacred soil and the ethnic Russians that are on it, whether they want to be part of your state or not," said Schmidt.
Schmidt said the idea of Putin looking at Ukraine through a nationalist or ethnic-identity lens is one of the most alarming things about the standoff over Ukraine.

It's also something non-Russians tend to overlook in their eagerness to interpret Putin's actions and motivations, he said — the possibility that the consequences of invading Ukraine mean little to him in the face of a quasi-religious quest.

If he is sick, and if I might try getting in the opponents head, he may be thinking "my time is short and only I am capable of doing this."  I think we will see a brief pause as the Russians move into the breakaway regions.  I'll leave calculations of the timeframe to a non-active, non-couch general.  Then the Russians will claim to be fired upon by the Ukrainians (who are under strict orders not to fire except under exceptional circumstances (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-russian-security-council-eastern-ukraine-1.6359253))  "Ukrainian military spokesperson Pavlo Kovalchyuk insisted that Ukrainian forces weren't returning fire."  Putin clearly ordered Ukraine to stop attacks on Russia in his speech yesterday which is a ludicrous assertion considering the balance of military power.  This is a very obvious assertion, but expect another lie in a few days and Russia's invasion to commence.

I'm slinging a lot of shit against the wall here, some of it will stick, but even I am looking at what I am saying with a critical eye.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 22, 2022, 11:48:17 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 11:29:09 AM
Briefly, Neuro Linguistic Programming (https://nlp-mentor.com/eye-body-language/) is a technique that when used for interogation can determine whether someone is accessing memory or imagination. ....

....
Micro expressions (very brief displays of emotion that the user is trying to conceal) are easier to use.  I did see clear unconcealed expressions of disgust/contempt (wrinkling of nose like to a bad smell) and anger (puffing up in size and showing teeth) during his tirade against Ukraine and the historical wrongs done to Russia.  He did seem to show an expression of exasperation with one of the leaders of the rebel areas when the document of Russian recognition was being signed.
....


I thought there were some interesting "tells." It was interesting that before his speech...during his security council meeting, each member of the council got up to talk. The camera would sometimes go to Putin while the others were talking. I thought he often looked bored and impatient...like he couldn't wait for the kabuki to finish. At one point, he briefly strummed his fingers on his desk..like he really wasn't listening to what the council members were saying.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 22, 2022, 12:10:36 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 22, 2022, 11:48:17 AM
At one point, he briefly strummed his fingers on his desk..like he really wasn't listening to what the council members were saying.
He doesn't need to listen.  They are only speaking the words he told them to speak.

This is how he started his council meeting :  "Every one of you knows, and I specially want to underline it ... I did not discuss any of this with you before. I did not ask your opinion before.  And this is happening spontaneously, because I wanted to hear your opinions without any preliminary preparation".
And than a spontaneous piece of theater play started ...
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 12:21:53 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 22, 2022, 11:48:17 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 11:29:09 AM
Briefly, Neuro Linguistic Programming (https://nlp-mentor.com/eye-body-language/) is a technique that when used for interogation can determine whether someone is accessing memory or imagination. ....

....
Micro expressions (very brief displays of emotion that the user is trying to conceal) are easier to use.  I did see clear unconcealed expressions of disgust/contempt (wrinkling of nose like to a bad smell) and anger (puffing up in size and showing teeth) during his tirade against Ukraine and the historical wrongs done to Russia.  He did seem to show an expression of exasperation with one of the leaders of the rebel areas when the document of Russian recognition was being signed.
....


I thought there were some interesting "tells." It was interesting that before his speech...during his security council meeting, each member of the council got up to talk. The camera would sometimes go to Putin while the others were talking. I thought he often looked bored and impatient...like he couldn't wait for the kabuki to finish. At one point, he briefly strummed his fingers on his desk..like he really wasn't listening to what the council members were saying.

I only saw the briefest part of the initial council meeting this morning. The BBC commentator stating exactly what you and Pete Dero say, in that Putin was clearly impatient for this theatrical piece to end.

If you are not active duty or on the reserve list, what do you think the timeline will be for the Russians to move fully into place in Donetsk, and Luhansk before they are ready for offensive operations?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 22, 2022, 01:22:16 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 11:29:09 AM
If he is sick, and if I might try getting in the opponents head, he may be thinking "my time is short and only I am capable of doing this." 

I have absolutely no idea if this is true or not.  But if it is correct this might make him even more dangerous as he doesn't have to live with the long term consequences.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 22, 2022, 01:41:54 PM
Right. Because who's going to tell him he's too sick to rule? NOT a good career move.  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 01:47:56 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 22, 2022, 01:22:16 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 11:29:09 AM
If he is sick, and if I might try getting in the opponents head, he may be thinking "my time is short and only I am capable of doing this." 

I have absolutely no idea if this is true or not.  But if it is correct this might make him even more dangerous as he doesn't have to live with the long term consequences.

As to "I have absolutely no idea if this is true or not."  Neither do I, it is a thought exercise.  What is my opponent doing, what are his motivations, his capabilities, etc?  Trying to think as the competition whether in business, sport or wargaming can be revealing.  I'm an amateur trying to do it for something much more serious. 
btw have you seen this?  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-dresses-down-russias-spy-chief/vi-AAUaxQZ  i shouldn't feel sorry for a Russian spy master, but I don't know whether to laugh or pity the poor sod every time he flinches.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 22, 2022, 02:40:45 PM
Thanks for the explanation Uberhaus. 

I had an uncle, who died many years ago, who emigrated from the former Soviet Union tell me that whenever you are being questioned always look your interrogator in the eye and don't break contact even for a moment. 

The explanation you provided is the science I needed to understand what street smarts had told me to do. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 22, 2022, 02:45:41 PM
Quote from: Karri on February 22, 2022, 08:50:32 AM
I bet Putin's next step is to officially integrate Belarus into Russia. All of this Ukraine stuff might just be smokes and mirrors for that.

Interestingly, this article just popped up on the Atlantic a few minutes ago:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/russia-creeping-annexation-belarus/622878/

In the space of a month, Vladimir Putin has effectively managed to transform a former Soviet state into an extension of Russian territory, in full view of the United States and Europe, without firing a single shot in the country. This isn't unfolding in Ukraine but neighboring Belarus, which has served as a home for Russian troops and military hardware since the start of the year, ostensibly because of planned drills between the two countries' militaries. Over the weekend, the Belarusian government announced that the 30,000 Russian troops on its soil—Moscow's largest deployment on Minsk's territory since the end of the Cold War—could be there to stay.

Regardless of what happens in Ukraine, this is a major victory in Putin's war with the West. The move not only represents a violation of Belarusian sovereignty, but poses a significant challenge to NATO as a security guarantor in the Baltics: Belarus shares a border with two NATO members. Still, few leaders outside the Baltic region have said anything about the announcement or how they plan to respond. The cost of doing nothing could be enormous.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 22, 2022, 02:48:29 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on February 21, 2022, 11:14:35 AM
Not to derail this thread but have you every looked at a picture in real life (like those pictures of armored vehicles at the Ukrainian border) and then thought, "I really want to play game "x" now"?

(sheepinshly raises hand)

I was looking for Next War: Poland on Sunday, but it's OOP and priced way too high where I can find it used.  I have The Operational Art of War 4...I wonder if there's a Ukraine scenario?

Meantime, I re-installed Combat Mission: Black Sea last weekend.  But I didn't want to admit it as it seems pretty morally wrong TBH.   :-[
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: al_infierno on February 22, 2022, 02:56:33 PM
Interesting quotes from this article: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/war-is-my-biggest-horror-russians-brace-for-deadly-conflict-economic-hardship-as-putin-orders-invasion/ar-AAUaldT?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Quote"There will be a quick war, our army is already in Ukraine," said a security guard at the square who declined to give his name out of fear of retribution for speaking to a Western media outlet. "They are going to launch a few rockets at Ukrainian military bases and storages with weapons. And all Ukrainian forces will surrender to or army. And that's it."

Hmmm... Why am I getting "over by Christmas" vibes from this statement?  :-X
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 22, 2022, 03:14:20 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on February 22, 2022, 02:56:33 PM
Interesting quotes from this article: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/war-is-my-biggest-horror-russians-brace-for-deadly-conflict-economic-hardship-as-putin-orders-invasion/ar-AAUaldT?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Quote"There will be a quick war, our army is already in Ukraine," said a security guard at the square who declined to give his name out of fear of retribution for speaking to a Western media outlet. "They are going to launch a few rockets at Ukrainian military bases and storages with weapons. And all Ukrainian forces will surrender to or army. And that's it."

Hmmm... Why am I getting "over by Christmas" vibes from this statement?  :-X
I think one thing that has not been discussed is that the Russian army has not fought a real battle against a near peer.  The invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the Chechen wars of independence were not against first class opponents and in Georgia's case against an unprepared and poorly trained army.  I dont think the Ukrainians will win but I do think that the Russians will be very unpleasantly surprised at the casualties.  The question is can Putin keep a lid on it and prevent the ordinary Russian people from seeing the cost in blood.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 22, 2022, 03:15:01 PM
Maybe I've watched too many prepper videos lately, but this is pending war is a very scary development.  I'm sincerely grateful Ukraine doesn't have nukes.

It is all too easy to imagine a scenario where this escalates into a broader war very quickly.  And if China takes this opportunity to get up to hijinks...   :-\
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 03:56:04 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on February 22, 2022, 02:40:45 PM
Thanks for the explanation Uberhaus. 

I had an uncle, who died many years ago, who emigrated from the former Soviet Union tell me that whenever you are being questioned always look your interrogator in the eye and don't break contact even for a moment. 

The explanation you provided is the science I needed to understand what street smarts had told me to do.

Your very welcome.  You may have just answered why Putin was staring straight ahead, it may still be common belief in Russia and he must do it for the cameras.  Before NLP guilt was often assumed if you couldn't look someone in the eye whereas it could just be nervousness.  Who'd be nervous during an interogation?  Reading micro-expressions is something we all have done from the beginning of time, but it is helpful to pay attention to especially in the modern world.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 04:38:59 PM
Quote from: Toonces on February 22, 2022, 02:48:29 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on February 21, 2022, 11:14:35 AM
Not to derail this thread but have you every looked at a picture in real life (like those pictures of armored vehicles at the Ukrainian border) and then thought, "I really want to play game "x" now"?

(sheepinshly raises hand)

I was looking for Next War: Poland on Sunday, but it's OOP and priced way too high where I can find it used.  I have The Operational Art of War 4...I wonder if there's a Ukraine scenario?

Meantime, I re-installed Combat Mission: Black Sea last weekend.  But I didn't want to admit it as it seems pretty morally wrong TBH.   :-[

This is a great game and the second edition is in pre-order at GMT, https://www.gmtgames.com/p-846-next-war-poland-2nd-edition.aspx  I'll discuss it because it can give us a good idea of how a modern war would unfold.  Don't take my word for it:  https://warontherocks.com/2019/04/how-does-the-next-great-power-conflict-play-out-lessons-from-a-wargame/  "The United States can win World War III, but it's going to be ugly and it better end quick, or everyone starts looking for the nuclear trigger.
That is the verdict of a Marine Corps War College wargame I organized that allowed students to fight a multiple great state conflict last week. "
The playthrough of Ian Sullivan a special advisor at USA TRADOC is chilling especially for the opening moves of cyberwarfare, ballistic and cruise missile and special forces attacks.  http://insidegmt.com/poland-is-not-yet-lost-playing-next-war-poland/
http://insidegmt.com/poland-is-not-yet-lost-playing-next-war-poland-part-2/
http://insidegmt.com/poland-is-not-yet-lost-playing-next-war-poland-part-2-2/

Unfortunately, the link to the designer's article on the Marine War College's playthrough is broken.
However, there is a link to all the files of the games for the entire series at Dropbox (it's legit, it's provided by GMT).  https://onedrive.live.com/?id=BAF113CFB8DCD1CD%2111206&cid=BAF113CFB8DCD1CD  Maps units, rules are there for the entire series as well as professional texts that inspired the games.

The premise is that Ukraine is mired in an intractable conflct and plays no role in the conflict.  Poland is invaded through Kaliningrad, Russia and Belarus.  The Baltic states are quickly overrun even with NATO presence.  The supplements for the entire series and are worth getting with the first supplement introducing cyberwarfare and alternate rules for air and submarine warfare.  The second supplement introduced insurgencies as well as S300/400s, Patriots and THAADS.  The game shows how dangerous the S400s and Iskanders in Kaliningrad are to NATO in real life.  I'm looking forward to the 3rd supplement with it's updates mostly for changing real world OOBS for NW Poland and updating my original ed to 2nd ed.  Mitchell Land might have to go back to the drawing board after this circus though. 

Going back to the real world and the comments of Belarus occupied, it certainly looks that way and it remains to be seen how much agency Lukashenko has in the coming days and weeks.  I'm wondering if Moldova might be targeted if Russia is very succesful but I don't want to speculate on something that I haven't read enough about.  I will say that link up with isolated forces in Transdniestra are definitely planned.

As for Next War Taiwan a massive build up of shipping, aviation and missiles will clearly be seen as PRC prepares a reverse Dunkirk.  They'll try the carrot a little while longer.

Corrected author of NW Polands name
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 22, 2022, 05:02:09 PM
That War on the Rocks article is good.  His first article regarding wargaming in PME institutions was widely circulated when I was at Newport.

We did incorporate some wargaming - to the extent possible - in our curriculum, but as always it was time constraints and education requirements that always relegated wargaming to the backburner or "would be nice if we had more time" pile.

Our capstone event in the junior course did incorporate a wargame and leveraged the wargaming department, but it was meant more as a planning exercise than an actual wargame like Next War.  I'm a huge advocate of getting CMO into the War College as a wargaming tool, but the logistics of making that happen are probably too difficult to overcome to ever make it happen.

[thread hijack/off]

The rapidity with which each side resorts to nuclear release is what's scary about the potential of the Ukraine conflict getting out of hand.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 22, 2022, 05:31:20 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 22, 2022, 09:37:14 AM
A tremendous amount of military aviation over Europe at the moment and this is only those with active transponders. Much more fighter activity than I typically see. I'm tracking F-15s, F-16s, Eurofighters, T-45s and A-104s. i even see B-52s over the North Sea and a shit-ton of transport aircraft. C-130s, C-5s, C-17s, etc. I see an E-3 Sentry over Poland and Stratotankers over Germany...and choppers, loads of choppers. I'm actually tracking MI-24s over Czechia, Apaches in the Netherlands and chinooks and merlins in the UK.  A VERY impressive show.

I really hope FedEx gets my order from Virpil into the air and out of Lithuania before the situation deteriorates further.  :hide:                                   

just to side track for a moment.  when looking after I got home from work I saw a Hawker Hunter flying around the Keys and a balloon at 65000 feet drifting away from Hawaii.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 22, 2022, 05:38:02 PM
Toonces:  Im not to worried about the Baltic States as they ARE a part of NATO.  And while our footprint in Europe is as light as its ever been virtually all the armies that live there have Leopard 2s of one form or another along with all the other NATO toys that I still think would wipe the floor with russia.
ya wanna make putin shit his pants, put a German tank brigade in Estonia.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 22, 2022, 06:02:28 PM
QuoteI think one thing that has not been discussed is that the Russian army has not fought a real battle against a near peer

not entirely true.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html

I didnt work out at all for them.  8)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 22, 2022, 06:20:44 PM
Good news! My Virpil package is out of the danger zone and has reached the FedEx hub in Belgium. It spent the better part of the day moving from Lithuania to Poland.

First world problems... <:-)

Pretty sure my packages are on this aircraft...

(https://scontent-lga3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/274665286_10159254287547702_5738781197136917746_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=6LSUiDQHDvIAX8kE7Ng&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-2.xx&oh=00_AT_VWAnobfqFfs_tFTw4M1TXgdG_s9l2cKbklB2vUvS2vg&oe=6219FA12)

(https://scontent-lga3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/274736009_10159254287537702_4518486723881136216_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=-NthnNaAVscAX9lIR4f&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-2.xx&oh=00_AT9YrDvNAM37365b83kXw9M3CpsMqHzL77tkyZJLwihGjQ&oe=62197017)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 06:23:00 PM
Quote from: Con on February 22, 2022, 03:14:20 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on February 22, 2022, 02:56:33 PM
Interesting quotes from this article: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/war-is-my-biggest-horror-russians-brace-for-deadly-conflict-economic-hardship-as-putin-orders-invasion/ar-AAUaldT?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Quote"There will be a quick war, our army is already in Ukraine," said a security guard at the square who declined to give his name out of fear of retribution for speaking to a Western media outlet. "They are going to launch a few rockets at Ukrainian military bases and storages with weapons. And all Ukrainian forces will surrender to or army. And that's it."

Hmmm... Why am I getting "over by Christmas" vibes from this statement?  :-X
I think one thing that has not been discussed is that the Russian army has not fought a real battle against a near peer.  The invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the Chechen wars of independence were not against first class opponents and in Georgia's case against an unprepared and poorly trained army.  I dont think the Ukrainians will win but I do think that the Russians will be very unpleasantly surprised at the casualties.  The question is can Putin keep a lid on it and prevent the ordinary Russian people from seeing the cost in blood.

Here's hoping.  Unfortunately, the Russians have come along way from the conscripted tank crews driving unsupported into Grozny in 1995.  With the siege of Grozny in 1999-2000 it ended up as "the most destroyed city on earth" according to the UN.  I think the Russians will be willing to do this again, if not destroying cities and towns then laying siege to them.  They also have sabotouers and fifth columnists throughout Ukraine engaged in terrorism and terrorist threats. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-sleeper-agents-bomb-threats-1.6340577  Putin will do everything to lower domestic casualties including letting proxies sustain the greatest casualties.  I think Donetsk and Luhansk may find the price of recognition very bloody.  Maybe even Belarus. There is precedent, the Soviet Army halting during the Warsaw Uprising and North Viet Nam allowing the VC cadres to be devastated during the Tet Offensive.  Both examples removed political opposition to allow communist control. 

BBC had an interview less than two weeks ago with I believe the Foreign Minister Sikorski from Poland.  I can't find a link but Sikorski stated that Ukraine needed to cause 10000 casualties, destroy 100 aircraft, and I think he said 300 afvs to stop Putin.  Hopefully they will be able to do it with the MANPADs and AT missiles.  Poland has sent a lot of Soviet calibre artillery shells and also GROM MANPADS based off of the SA18 https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/02/poland-is-sending-missiles-drones-and-thousands-of-artillery-rounds-to-ukraine/

As to the rasputista, the mud, it will limit manouevre but conditions are different.  For starters, Ukraine is much more urbanized with better roads.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roads_in_Ukraine   "The whole network of all automobile roads (roadways) consists of some 172,400 km (107,100 mi) of which 164,100 km (102,000 mi) - have hard surface or 95.19%...  For comparison, in 1940 the highway network of Ukraine consisted of 270,700 kilometers of which only 10.8% contained a paved surface."   For urbanization, Ukraine has a population now of 43.7 million with 70% urban population.  https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/ukraine/#people-and-society  In 1940 (using present boundaries)  the population was 40.6 million, with an agrarian population.  Modern urban planning and agriculture provide for better hydrology of the land through diversion and control of water.  Also, the retreating Red Army destroyed the Dnepostroi Dam in 1941 flooding the land.  https://www.thevintagenews.com/2017/01/13/the-red-army-troops-dynamited-the-strategically-important-dneprostroi-dam-during-wwii-as-germany-invaded-the-soviet-union/?edg-c=1  Soviets destroying the damn in the 1940s killing thousands of Ukrainians is not surprising, but I can't see it being done today. 
Hopefully, the mud will force the Russians often into urban combat when they need a road system where the Ukrainians can inflict heavy casualties.  But that will be brutal for the civilian population.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 22, 2022, 08:19:07 PM
If Ukraine did not give up it's nukes when the USSR dissolved then we might not have the current situation to deal with today.

Monday morning quarterbacking yes, etc., and we might have had something worse before 2022, but you have to wonder.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 22, 2022, 08:23:28 PM
less nukes is a good thing and it not like russia gout them back.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 22, 2022, 08:27:27 PM
^Agree but like I said I can't help but wonder what Putin would do if Ukraine threatened to shove one up his arse right now, if they still had them.

Some great shots here that really show the human side of what is unfolding:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/14/world/gallery/ukraine-russia-crisis/index.html
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 09:43:53 PM
Ukraine would have become an international pariah if it had kept its nuclear weapons.  The country was given assurances of its territorial integrity in the Budapest Memorandum.  https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-explainer-budapest-memorandum/25280502.html 
"Under the memorandum, Ukraine promised to remove all Soviet-era nuclear weapons from its territory, send them to disarmament facilities in Russia, and sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Ukraine kept these promises.
In return, Russia and the Western signatory countries essentially consecrated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine as an independent state. They did so by applying the principles of territorial integrity and nonintervention in 1975 Helsinki Final Act -- a Cold War-era treaty signed by 35 states including the Soviet Union -- to an independent post-Soviet Ukraine."
Unfortunately, it is only a diplomatic document and not a treaty, but I don't think that distinction would make that great a difference now.

One of the scarier things Putin said in his Monday night diatribe is that Ukraine was building nuclear weapons and other WMD with aid from the West.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 22, 2022, 10:33:31 PM
An International Pariah but a very well respected one. And, one not needing to rely for it's survival on feckless politicians and their empty promises. I await the day Mr. Putin decides it is best for Russia to give-up her nukes for international assurances of respect for her territorial integrity. I think the Dodo will be back first.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 11:31:36 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 22, 2022, 10:33:31 PM
An International Pariah but a very well respected one. And, one not needing to rely for it's survival on feckless politicians and their empty promises. I await the day Mr. Putin decides it is best for Russia to give-up her nukes for international assurances of respect for her territorial integrity. I think the Dodo will be back first.
I agree totally that Ukraine has been let down by empty promises and lies.  However, Ukraine would have faced more and more external pressure to give up nuclear weapons.  A nuclear armed Ukraine would be well respected like North Korea.  No one dares attack it, but no one wants to associate with it either.  With invasion, Ukraine's hope lies in causing as much pain to Putin's regime as possible.  The West can support Ukraine by supplying weaponry and causing economic damage to Russia.   Putin will retaliate for these actions and we had best steel ourselves. It may be painful, however, we must aid Ukraine and we must finally stand up to authoritarianism.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 22, 2022, 11:35:06 PM
I saw a bit where it was theorized that the Ukraine would need to inflict 300 tank kills and around 10000 infantry kills to get putin to call off his adventurism.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 22, 2022, 11:49:44 PM
and 100 aircraft.  Was this Poland's Foreign Minister, Sikorski?  I'm still trying to find a clip from his interview on the BBC.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2022, 12:42:26 AM
it wasnt a video I saw, I read an article.
but yeah, thats the loss/win bet for the moment.
either Gulf War for us with those losses would be a totally different story in history.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 23, 2022, 07:49:14 AM
^I read that same set of numbers yesterday, I think in Reuters and yes I am pretty sure it was Poland's Sikorski.

International pariah or not, if I was sitting in eastern Ukraine right now I would be cursing the deal giving up the nuclear weapons.

Agreements, treaties and politicians have not been kind to Ukraine. The country attempted to abide by international law but now is threatened by a regime that could care less about international law.

*Poof* there goes the Minsk agreement, etc.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 23, 2022, 08:27:39 AM
^ The scary thing is that at this moment I don't believe a Ukraine with nuclear weapons would make Putin change his current course.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2022, 08:50:31 AM
^the even scarier thing is that Zelenskyy is talking about trying to procure them.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: z1812 on February 23, 2022, 09:08:15 AM
An interesting article.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-ukraine-speech-pushes-sanctions-russian-banks-s-not-going-ncna1289540
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 23, 2022, 10:09:43 AM
I've been struck by the irony of Putin's claim that NATO moving east is a mortal threat to his country by putting it directly on the border of his nation. But by moving his army west, that's exactly what he's doing. An occupied Ukraine would border NATO Poland and his troops in Belarus are already next door to NATO nations. If NATO is so threatening, shouldn't he be moving east to get away from it? We know his true motives but at some point I hope the long-suffering Russian people will figure-out the obvious lies told them as a reason for their sons coming home in body-bags. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 23, 2022, 10:22:37 AM
I am convinced that Russians in general prefer authoritarian leaders...as if they have a choice, anyway.

Look at the nostalgia and reverance for Stalin and the all too common nostalgia for the USSR.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 23, 2022, 11:33:32 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2022, 08:50:31 AM
^the even scarier thing is that Zelenskyy is talking about trying to procure them.

That is something I haven't heard yet.

But even when they had them I don't think they had operational control over them.


Don't expect any protests in Russia as this equals a trip to prison (or worse).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26337693 Mass arrest of protesters at rallies in Russia (2014)
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/22/russia-protests-more-than-1000-arrested-at-pro-navalny-demonstrations.html   More than 1,000 arrested at pro-Navalny protests in Russia as demonstrators defy ban (2021)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-navalny-protesters-abuses/2021/02/26/c5d8856c-6aef-11eb-a66e-e27046e9e898_story.html   As some of the more than 11,000 detainees emerge from crowded detention centers, they speak of violence, fear and potential rights violations (2021)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 23, 2022, 12:39:31 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 23, 2022, 11:33:32 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2022, 08:50:31 AM
^the even scarier thing is that Zelenskyy is talking about trying to procure them.

That is something I haven't heard yet.
....

I looked for a reference on this...and all I came up with is that Zelensky seems to be saying that because Russia has now blown up Ukrainian territorial integrity promised by the Budapest memorandum, Ukraine's promise to not have nukes is now void.

This implies that Ukraine could now pursue acquisition of Nukes. But I didn't see anything where he is actually trying to procure them. But I may have missed it. Or maybe this is just posturing.

Hopefully Jarhead will expand on this a bit.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2022, 12:44:33 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 23, 2022, 12:39:31 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 23, 2022, 11:33:32 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2022, 08:50:31 AM
^the even scarier thing is that Zelenskyy is talking about trying to procure them.

That is something I haven't heard yet.
....

I looked for a reference on this...and all I came up with is that Zelensky seems to be saying that because Russia has now blown up Ukrainian territorial integrity promised by the Budapest memorandum, Ukraine's promise to not have nukes is now void.

This implies that Ukraine could now pursue acquisition of Nukes. But I didn't see anything where he is actually trying to procure them. But I may have missed it. Or maybe this is just posturing.

Hopefully Jarhead will expand on this a bit.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/president-zelensky-suggests-ukraine-may-pursue-nuclear-weapons-to-counter-russia-putin-responds (https://www.dailywire.com/news/president-zelensky-suggests-ukraine-may-pursue-nuclear-weapons-to-counter-russia-putin-responds)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Skoop on February 23, 2022, 02:13:04 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 23, 2022, 10:09:43 AM
I've been struck by the irony of Putin's claim that NATO moving east is a mortal threat to his country by putting it directly on the border of his nation. But by moving his army west, that's exactly what he's doing. An occupied Ukraine would border NATO Poland and his troops in Belarus are already next door to NATO nations. If NATO is so threatening, shouldn't he be moving east to get away from it? We know his true motives but at some point I hope the long-suffering Russian people will figure-out the obvious lies told them as a reason for their sons coming home in body-bags.

Agree, this is really about Putin being terrified the Ukrainian democracy spreading to Russia like wildfire and toppling his corrupt hold.  If only the Russian people could see the charade that is Putin and his oligarchs, breaking through to them is a different story.   

Interesting thing is Finland which is pretty free and prosperous doesn't seem to threaten Putin much so maybe with Ukraine it's a slav thing.  Like the fellow slav Ukraine can't be allowed to exist because if they prove life is better right next door, it will expose him. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 23, 2022, 02:46:57 PM
As I listen to the clueless talking heads interview a parade of clueless policy weenies I am stunned at the fantasy these self-deluded idiots live in. Wake up and smell the roses, they smell like gunpowder.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 23, 2022, 05:42:54 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 23, 2022, 11:33:32 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2022, 08:50:31 AM
^the even scarier thing is that Zelenskyy is talking about trying to procure them.

That is something I haven't heard yet.

But even when they had them I don't think they had operational control over them.


Don't expect any protests in Russia as this equals a trip to prison (or worse).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26337693 Mass arrest of protesters at rallies in Russia (2014)
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/22/russia-protests-more-than-1000-arrested-at-pro-navalny-demonstrations.html   More than 1,000 arrested at pro-Navalny protests in Russia as demonstrators defy ban (2021)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-navalny-protesters-abuses/2021/02/26/c5d8856c-6aef-11eb-a66e-e27046e9e898_story.html   As some of the more than 11,000 detainees emerge from crowded detention centers, they speak of violence, fear and potential rights violations (2021)

There's one incident where the military sided with the people and refused to crush democracy demonstrators.  The 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt.   

There is also protest by Belarus soldiers burning their uniforms from August 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-53776463 


February 23rd was a holiday in Russia.  Remembrance of Defence of the Motherland.  I guess every Russian leader has to produce holiday fun, lest public opinion of them end up in the basement.


Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2022, 06:34:15 PM
This evening I've tracked a number of RQ4 Global Hawks directly over Ukraine. Still very light civilian air traffic over the country. Hardly anyone is coming in or out. Everything is avoiding Crimea and most of the Black Sea.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 23, 2022, 09:16:10 PM
I thinks its going down now- Ukrainian forces reportedly shelling Donetsk - False Flags are flying! Time in Kyiv 4:15am
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-23-22/index.html
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2022, 09:37:36 PM
emergency meeting of the UNSC starting right now
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 23, 2022, 09:56:12 PM
^We're saved!

:/
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 23, 2022, 10:01:58 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 23, 2022, 09:56:12 PM
^We're saved!

:/

Of course we are. 

They will alter their stern warnings to sterner warnings.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2022, 10:04:43 PM
and putin just said hes invading....
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2022, 10:07:03 PM
 <:-)

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 23, 2022, 10:21:12 PM
CNN reporting Kyiv being hit.

Watching this now..

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 23, 2022, 10:34:31 PM
I am reminded of the line from Red Storm Rising when the balloon goes up
Stout Hearts SACLANT sends - here's hoping the Ukrainians can hold and bloody Ivan.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 23, 2022, 10:39:30 PM
Putin said his goal was to "De-Nazify" Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 23, 2022, 10:53:27 PM
There is a lot of information flying right now, hard to keep up.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2022, 10:56:08 PM
no idea why this UN meeting is still going on.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 23, 2022, 10:58:18 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 23, 2022, 10:53:27 PM
There is a lot of information flying right now, hard to keep up.

Yeah.  I'm hearing of amphibious operations against Odesa and Mariupol but so far haven't seen that in the mainstream media.

EDIT: Ok, CNN reported it.

Looks like possibly a movie against Kharkiv and Mariupol with the goal of a double envelopment.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 23, 2022, 11:00:56 PM
I read a while back that strategically an amphib operation against Odessa was a good choice for Putin - very few options for the Ukrainians to defend against any sea power projections with a good military outcome for Russia to take Odessa.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 23, 2022, 11:09:58 PM
Quote from: Con on February 23, 2022, 11:00:56 PM
I read a while back that strategically an amphib operation against Odessa was a good choice for Putin - very few options for the Ukrainians to defend against any sea power projections with a good military outcome for Russia to take Odessa.

It's what my DoD and FSO buddies were expecting.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 23, 2022, 11:23:21 PM
Wow, full court blitz (to mix some metaphors). Odessa's only, what, 50 miles up the coast from Romania? Advancing on Kharkov sounds like it could be Byelo as a springboard.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 23, 2022, 11:30:20 PM
This guy has live feeds, looks like a lot of activity in and to the west of Kharkiv.  Shelling in Mariupol.  Live footage here...

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 23, 2022, 11:39:09 PM
CNN saying that the Ukrainians are reporting missile strikes.

By coincidence, playing a PBEM game of GMT's Red Storm...a game of hypothetical Cold War air combat over Germany in the 1980s.

Anyone who has played Red Storm, or games like Command: Modern Ops that showcase modern capabilities knows how the symphony goes.

1) Missile strikes (or Spetsnaz attacks) to take out and degrade early warning and SAM radars 

2) SEAD air strikes to take out SAM sites.

3) Air to Air sweeps to clear the sky of air opposition

4) Stand-off bomb attacks on airfields, command and control, and comms infrastructure.

5) Escorted visual bomb runs on airfields and any remaining radars / SAMs.

5) repeat until you have air supremacy.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 23, 2022, 11:41:20 PM
Ukrainian Pravda confirms major amphibious landings at Odesa and Mariupol.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 24, 2022, 01:00:16 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 23, 2022, 11:41:20 PM
Ukrainian Pravda confirms major amphibious landings at Odesa and Mariupol.
Want landbrige to Crimea, and linkup with Russian forces in Transdniestra, may try for parts of Moldava which has very small army. 
Any reports of airborne landings?  BBC reports gunfire at Kyiv airport but could be Spetsnaz or fifth columnists.  Reporting troops coming from Belorus.

God be with Ukraine.  Fight like the Finns. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 24, 2022, 03:23:46 AM
This is a little late but Russian hypersonic weapons were developed not just to deal with US strategic weapons' great improvements in circular error probable (precision) but to specifically intimidate us at this time.  Read Putin's threats.  The timeframe of development and action in Ukraine is very close.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Anguille on February 24, 2022, 03:23:56 AM
 :'(
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 05:06:15 AM
I've seen some videos posted to Facebook purportedly showing Russian aircraft eating SAMs. Nothing verified.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 07:21:19 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 05:06:15 AM
I've seen some videos posted to Facebook purportedly showing Russian aircraft eating SAMs. Nothing verified.

  Looks like a full-scale all-out attack on every part of the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 07:53:41 AM
^it does appear to be that, but there is a tremendous amount of misinformation on the internet. I've seen reports and videos of full-scale airborne drops which are clearly old training videos, etc.

Given the full spectrum nature of this war and the use of cyber attacks, propaganda, misdirection and misinformation, it's going to be difficult to cull truth from fact, at least for awhile.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 08:41:24 AM
There are B-52Hs on station in Poland flying figure-8s. Just crazy...
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 24, 2022, 08:54:50 AM
Obviously not getting the full picture here but I am somewhat surprised that the Russians haven't gone full shock army assault mode here. Almost looks like they are probing and using small special forces action. I was estimating amphibious landings and large scale armored maneuvering with contact to take place within the first hours of the invasion. But judging from what is being reported that doesn't seem to be the case.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 08:58:32 AM
Even with all the buildup this is still shocking. I need to catch up.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 09:16:44 AM
Quote from: Con on February 24, 2022, 08:54:50 AM
Obviously not getting the full picture here but I am somewhat surprised that the Russians haven't gone full shock army assault mode here. Almost looks like they are probing and using small special forces action. I was estimating amphibious landings and large scale armored maneuvering with contact to take place within the first hours of the invasion. But judging from what is being reported that doesn't seem to be the case.

Some of the sources I'm reading disagree with your assessment. I've seen that Russia has declared war and has launched a full-scale attack. Some of the pictures look brutal and there is already tremendous civilian suffering.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 09:17:00 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 08:58:32 AM
Even with all the buildup this is still shocking. I need to catch up.

  IT really is shocking.  Frankly, I never remotely imagined the Russians could do anything this stupid.  At this point, they have no wiggle room except in their own imaginations...once you start knocking
out air defenses and taking airports and driving in with armor, that's just plain all-out war.  It's interesting that Belarus is asking for the latest in air defense technology.  you'd think they would have worried about that sooner since they aren't that big and have NATO countries on two sides.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 09:24:00 AM
There are some images on Reuters of a general panic and evacuation from multiple Ukrainian cities...insanity.

https://www.reuters.com/
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: steve58 on February 24, 2022, 09:27:46 AM
This article has some maps that helped me get some perspective of whats going on.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/MAGAZINE-ukraine-russia-war-6-maps-to-make-sense-of-the-invasion-1.10632555
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 09:29:36 AM
More images from the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-60505277
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 24, 2022, 09:37:13 AM
An Israeli analyst talks Russia and Ukraine among other topics.  Very insightful.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 24, 2022, 09:54:23 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 09:16:44 AM
Some of the sources I'm reading disagree with your assessment. I've seen that Russia has declared war and has launched a full-scale attack. Some of the pictures look brutal and there is already tremendous civilian suffering.

Agree, looks like full scale war. I saw the Deputy Mayor of Lviv (a major city in far west Ukraine, near the Polish border) say on CNN this morning that they were hearing explosions outside of Lviv. Who knows exactly what it means. Missile or Spetsnaz strikes against air facilities? Or maybe long range artillery/missiles out of western Belarus? Possibly trying to disrupt logistics and communications links between Ukraine and NATO? But no matter where it is coming from, hitting so close to Lviv probably means that Putin is attacking the whole country.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 10:06:42 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 24, 2022, 09:54:23 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 09:16:44 AM
Some of the sources I'm reading disagree with your assessment. I've seen that Russia has declared war and has launched a full-scale attack. Some of the pictures look brutal and there is already tremendous civilian suffering.

Agree, looks like full scale war. I saw the Deputy Mayor of Lviv (a major city in far west Ukraine, near the Polish border) say on CNN this morning that they were hearing explosions outside of Lviv. Who knows exactly what it means. Missile or Spetsnaz strikes against air facilities? Or maybe long range artillery/missiles out of western Belarus? Possibly trying to disrupt logistics and communications links between Ukraine and NATO? But no matter where it is coming from, hitting so close to Lviv probably means that Putin is attacking the whole country.

  Well, assuming the Ukrainian Army fights (and apparently it is fighting), they have interior lines against piecemeal and somewhat perfunctory attacks -- for all that there is some kind of air war, there are
plenty of pictures of Ukrainian tanks and vehicles moving down highways (of course those might be from last year, but probably not)  You'd think hitting the Ukrainian armor driving down the highway would be a priority if you are bothering to have an air war at all.  Ukraine does have some standard US gear (like Javelin missiles).  Maybe they counter-targetted Russian communications with drones or EMP weapons or maybe we just aren't getting any news of the Ukrainian Army getting pounded (some Ukrainian officials have beens sounding pretty upbeat lately so maybe things aren't going all Russia's way at the fighting fronts).

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 24, 2022, 10:14:42 AM
CNN just had General Westlake on and I am paraphrasing his summary here is that there is broad push on the ground with softening of the air defenses and strikes.  Of course definition of broad vs intensity is different but my assumption of how the war was going to unfold was to run a decapitation strike into Kyiv and pin down/split forces with amphib landings in Odessa to create the Crimean landbridge into the Med.
As for the Ukrainians they can only be reinforced through their Western Borders, no C5 or Hercs are flying into Ukraine airspace. I wonder what is the most benefit to them (ie I cant see a battalion of M1A2s being driven to Ukraine and then handing them the keys being useful) - what can NATO provide for material help apart from CCCI and more Javelins etc.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 10:27:16 AM
Russian KA-52 shot down outside of Kyiv...

(https://a57.foxnews.com/livenews.foxnews.com/images/2022/02/1248/702/52af7de704d894b0d96086ec5efa28b9.jpg?tl=1&ve=1)

Russian prisoners of war from unit 91701 of Yampol motorised infantry regiment.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMW5n6qXsAIGq8L?format=jpg&name=360x360)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMW5n99XoAAjbrA?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Tripoli on February 24, 2022, 10:40:01 AM
Good analysis by JE Dyer, (a retired USN intell analyst): https://theoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2022/02/24/toc-ready-room-24-feb-2022-putin-makes-his-move/#more-6202
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 10:40:29 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 09:24:00 AM
There are some images on Reuters of a general panic and evacuation from multiple Ukrainian cities...insanity.

https://www.reuters.com/

  Russia closed the Sea of Azov (and Ukraine issued orders to shipping not to enter the Sea of Azov).  Ukraine has asked Turkey to close the straits.  I'm not sure how that jives with international agreements, but what could Russia do if Turkey closed the straits and isolated the Black Sea?  Piddle around threateningly for years while their economy keeps dying?  Once they've blown up the Ukraine, what next?  Turkey?  Anyone but China?  I just don't see how blowing things up in the Ukraine helps them at all.

  Turkey has not signed the UN law of the sea convention and can close the straits for "Safety Reasons" if they want.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 10:55:32 AM
The NYTimes has video of about 20 Russian helicopters assaulting a Ukrainian city, it's surreal. Ukraine is already claiming to have shot down some and also dozens of its soldiers killed just in these first few hours.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 24, 2022, 10:57:50 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 10:27:16 AM

Russian prisoners of war from unit 91701 of Yampol motorised infantry regiment.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMW5n99XoAAjbrA?format=jpg&name=small)

Kids. Especially the guy on the left. It's still true; old men start wars that young men have to fight. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 11:03:34 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 10:55:32 AM
The NYTimes has video of about 20 Russian helicopters assaulting a Ukrainian city, it's surreal. Ukraine is already claiming to have shot down some and also dozens of its soldiers killed just in these first few hours.

  Meanwhile, the Russians are warning that Ukraine is making fake videos of mass casualties.  I wonder what fantasy world the Russians are living in if they think the Ukrainians have the time
or motivation to make fake videos of mass casualties?  It's like the Russians have picked the most expensive messy and round-about way to make themselves look completely pathetic.

and in other news:

A Turkish-owned ship, the Yasa Jupiter, was hit by a bomb off the coast of Odessa, Ukraine, but there were no casualties and the ship is safe and heading to Romanian waters, the Turkish Maritime Authority said. There was no request for help.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ComradeP on February 24, 2022, 11:22:49 AM
I'm watching some live streams from various CCTV/traffic camera's, but it seems to be quiet in Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa at the moment.

Of course, the lack of flashes could also be due to Ukraine's AA defences being off-line as well as there being no need for bombing runs at the moment.

The video with the CNN reporter at a military air base near Kiev, with Russian airborne forces meters away, was a bit surrealistic.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 11:35:31 AM
CNN reports that Russians are attempting to seize the Chernobyl facility.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 11:49:40 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 11:35:31 AM
CNN reports that Russians are attempting to seize the Chernobyl facility.

  Oksana Markarova confirmed that a Russian platoon from Moscow's 74th Motor Rifles Brigade had surrendered inside Ukraine earlier today.

  AND (imagine the horror), three people were injured by a Ukrainian shell inside Russia.  Clearly, things are getting out of hand when the Ukrainians start shooting back.

  Meanwhile the eye-witness assault on Kiev features the Russians pulling back and a car just driving by supposely in the line of fire from whatever the reporters were sheltering from.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: steve58 on February 24, 2022, 12:33:44 PM
OK, my strategically-challenged head is trying to figure why Putin would want Chernobyl?  Surly he has enough nuclear waste in Russia.  ???  Cracking it open (on purpose or accidently) seems it be as much a threat to Russia and Belarus as to Kiev.  Maybe to contaminate the Kiev Reservoir???
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 01:00:57 PM
Since becoming a parent, nothing disturbs me more than the fear and suffering of children. This war, as are all wars, is terrible.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 24, 2022, 01:10:50 PM
The background radiation isn't that high except in the reactor and surrounding building.  Hopefully, there just trying to maneouvre through, they have good NBC protection.  Maybe they thought no one would expect it.  There is a fear though that explosions will stir up radiation buried in the soil.  I don't think Putin would like Ukraine radioactively contaminated.

As to an earlier post I made, Russia developed hypersonic weapons in 2019, a different country developed them last year.  Sorry, won't post in the middle of the night again.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 24, 2022, 01:26:11 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 01:00:57 PM
Since becoming a parent, nothing disturbs me more than the fear and suffering of children. This war, as are all wars, is terrible.
It really does change the perspective.  I believe your child is quite young.  When my son was young,  I was very watchful and even traffic was worrying.  He turns eighteen next month and already has one scholarship offer for university.  I hope this ends very soon for the Ukranians, hopefully with the Russian people rising up against the kleptocracy, and the Russian army supporting the people like in 1991.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 24, 2022, 02:11:46 PM
From BBC Live  https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795

Anti-war protest taking place near Kremlin
More now on anti-war protests taking place in Russia as Joe Biden takes questions from journalists at the White House.

At least 735 people have been arrested at these protests across Russia today, including more than 330 in Moscow, according to OVD-Info, which tracks arrests at opposition rallies.

Footage from Moscow shows large crowds close to the Kremlin.

Some 2,000 people gathered near Pushkin Square in Moscow and up to 1,000 people in the city of St Petersburg, AFP news agency reports.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 02:16:22 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 24, 2022, 01:26:11 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 01:00:57 PM
Since becoming a parent, nothing disturbs me more than the fear and suffering of children. This war, as are all wars, is terrible.
It really does change the perspective.  I believe your child is quite young.  When my son was young,  I was very watchful and even traffic was worrying.  He turns eighteen next month and already has one scholarship offer for university.  I hope this ends very soon for the Ukranians, hopefully with the Russian people rising up against the kleptocracy, and the Russian army supporting the people like in 1991.

I have two girls. 8 and 2.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 24, 2022, 02:27:29 PM
They're fortunate in having a protector in you.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 02:57:13 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 24, 2022, 02:27:29 PM
They're fortunate in having a protector in you.

Thank you. In this world we live in, I often times doubt my ability to keep them safe.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Yskonyn on February 24, 2022, 03:03:01 PM
Flew back from Cyprus today. Lots of military assets in the air and that's only those we *can* hear on the radio. Imagine whats there that we cannot.

Its crazy whats happening at the moment.

I feel you, Jarhead. The thought has crossed my mind more than once these last few years as well.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 03:11:04 PM
And mine.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 24, 2022, 03:20:21 PM
That video of the low level ATG missile strike in a residential neighborhood just goes to show you that there are some armies/governments that have no pity on who they kill. 

I'll leave it at that.  But tuck that fact into the back of your mind.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 03:37:41 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on February 24, 2022, 03:20:21 PM
That video of the low level ATG missile strike in a residential neighborhood just goes to show you that there are some armies/governments that have no pity on who they kill. 

I'll leave it at that.  But tuck that fact into the back of your mind.

There's a lot of hatred that goes back a long time that's going to boil over in this war. 

I did a talk on the Holodomor in my Phi Alpha Theta days, as a part of that I really did a deep dive into the really imbalanced relationship Ukrainians have historically had with their Russian/Polish/Lithuanian overlords over the centuries. 

Having a few Ukrainian ex-pat coworkers in Georgia also drove home how important this era in their history was to a lot of their people.  After the Revolution there was a real sense in Western Ukraine of them finally achieving the independence and recognition that they've wanted for a long time as an entity that could stand apart from Russia's shadow.

You could sense in Putin's speech last night that he wants a reckoning for the apparent ungratefulness of the Ukrainians to their traditional "protectors".

An occupation of Ukraine by Russian forces will likely be worse than the war itself.  Nothing here is going to be clean.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 03:38:20 PM
Red Dawn

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 03:55:03 PM
^ From what I've been seeing that's part of the attack on Hostomel Airport.   

Fog of War considered, some on the ground reporting on twitter has indicated that the airport has changed hands more than once, possibly indicating a successful Ukrainian counterattack.   Some sources are outright saying that, so it may be that the Russians got their first big bloody nose.

Taking that airport is important to any cutting off of Kyiv.

Also unconfirmed reports with some videos of a supposed joint Ukrainian military/partisan counterattack and victory in Sumy.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 03:59:55 PM
^The Russians are definitely losing aircraft. Of that, there is no doubt. I've also heard reports that an entire platoon from the 74th Motorized Brigade from Kemerovo surrendered to Ukrainian troops.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: al_infierno on February 24, 2022, 04:05:05 PM
Also lots of reports of Russian tanks getting clobbered by ATGMs.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 04:06:56 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 03:55:03 PM
^ From what I've been seeing that's part of the attack on Hostomel Airport.   

Fog of War considered, some on the ground reporting on twitter has indicated that the airport has changed hands more than once, possibly indicating a successful Ukrainian counterattack.   Some sources are outright saying that, so it may be that the Russians got their first big bloody nose.

Taking that airport is important to any cutting off of Kyiv.

Also unconfirmed reports with some videos of a supposed joint Ukrainian military/partisan counterattack and victory in Sumy.

  The Russians are still close to Kiev and Kharkov though the big port of Maupol on the Azov seems to be holding on despite massive artillery barrages, but the Russians did take an island sacred to
Helen of Troy and that sounds like a big mythological problem.  The last time she was offended she blinded a Greek poet.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 24, 2022, 04:16:32 PM
Not confirmed but should be no surprise if true :

Google translate from this website  https://takiedela.ru/news/2022/02/24/komitet-soldatskikh-materey/

Russian soldiers from all across the country were deceived into heading to the Ukrainian border, and some were beaten if they resisted, according to the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers, a Russian non-governmental organization that works to expose human rights violations within the military.

The group is reportedly preparing a complaint for the Chief Military Prosecutor's Office alleging that their sons only recently joined the military as conscripts and were told they were going to the border with Ukraine for drills. But their statuses were then abruptly changed to contract soldiers— a role for those with more combat and training experience—and they were suddenly thrust into war.

"They are switching entire regiments to contract [soldiers,] although the guys did not submit any formal requests for this, and took no such initiative. There are instances of physical violence, and beatings of those who refuse to become contract soldiers. And after that it's completely unknown [what happens to them], because they take away their phones," Andrei Kurochkin, the deputy chairman of the group, told Takie Dela.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_the_Committees_of_Soldiers%27_Mothers_of_Russia
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 04:23:34 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 24, 2022, 04:16:32 PM
Not confirmed but should be no surprise if true :

Google translate from this website  https://takiedela.ru/news/2022/02/24/komitet-soldatskikh-materey/

Russian soldiers from all across the country were deceived into heading to the Ukrainian border, and some were beaten if they resisted, according to the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers, a Russian non-governmental organization that works to expose human rights violations within the military.

The group is reportedly preparing a complaint for the Chief Military Prosecutor's Office alleging that their sons only recently joined the military as conscripts and were told they were going to the border with Ukraine for drills. But their statuses were then abruptly changed to contract soldiers— a role for those with more combat and training experience—and they were suddenly thrust into war.

"They are switching entire regiments to contract [soldiers,] although the guys did not submit any formal requests for this, and took no such initiative. There are instances of physical violence, and beatings of those who refuse to become contract soldiers. And after that it's completely unknown [what happens to them], because they take away their phones," Andrei Kurochkin, the deputy chairman of the group, told Takie Dela.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_the_Committees_of_Soldiers%27_Mothers_of_Russia

That is interesting as it corroborates some of what the Russian platoon that surrendered claimed. Reports alleged that they surrendered because they were misled as to the nature of their mission and did not know that they would receive kill orders. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 04:31:08 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 24, 2022, 04:23:34 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 24, 2022, 04:16:32 PM
Not confirmed but should be no surprise if true :

Google translate from this website  https://takiedela.ru/news/2022/02/24/komitet-soldatskikh-materey/

Russian soldiers from all across the country were deceived into heading to the Ukrainian border, and some were beaten if they resisted, according to the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers, a Russian non-governmental organization that works to expose human rights violations within the military.

The group is reportedly preparing a complaint for the Chief Military Prosecutor's Office alleging that their sons only recently joined the military as conscripts and were told they were going to the border with Ukraine for drills. But their statuses were then abruptly changed to contract soldiers— a role for those with more combat and training experience—and they were suddenly thrust into war.

"They are switching entire regiments to contract [soldiers,] although the guys did not submit any formal requests for this, and took no such initiative. There are instances of physical violence, and beatings of those who refuse to become contract soldiers. And after that it's completely unknown [what happens to them], because they take away their phones," Andrei Kurochkin, the deputy chairman of the group, told Takie Dela.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_the_Committees_of_Soldiers%27_Mothers_of_Russia

That is interesting as it corroborates some of what the Russian platoon that surrendered claimed. Reports alleged that they surrendered because they were misled as to the nature of their mission and did not know that they would receive kill orders.

  This is similar to some of the incidents in 1953 when the Russians cracked down on East Germany and some Russian soldiers were beaten to death.  Their remains were found eventually.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 24, 2022, 04:35:36 PM
I totally hear you on that low-level jet attack video, Jarhead.

I was like, "Bad aaasssss.....oh fuck, that's horrible..."

I don't know how to phrase this without it coming out wrong, but part of me is really enjoying seeing the Russian hardware as a wargamer and former military guy.  But obviously this whole thing is a terrible tragedy and I don't mean to make light of that.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 04:42:32 PM
Quote from: Toonces on February 24, 2022, 04:35:36 PM
I totally hear you on that low-level jet attack video, Jarhead.

I was like, "Bad aaasssss.....oh fuck, that's horrible..."

I don't know how to phrase this without it coming out wrong, but part of me is really enjoying seeing the Russian hardware as a wargamer and former military guy.  But obviously this whole thing is a terrible tragedy and I don't mean to make light of that.

  Some of the footage of the helicopters dropping flares and one of them getting blown out of the sky is pretty hypnotic in a weird way.  Other footage is just plain puzzling like the Russians sort of wandering around the outskirts of Kharkov and Kiev trying to remember to pick up all their bags, rockets, missiles and machine guns.  They seem pretty overloaded and sleep-deprived or just very tired.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 04:43:30 PM
Quote from: Toonces on February 24, 2022, 04:35:36 PM

I don't know how to phrase this without it coming out wrong, but part of me is really enjoying seeing the Russian hardware as a wargamer and former military guy.  But obviously this whole thing is a terrible tragedy and I don't mean to make light of that.

I occasionally be a Mr. Buzkillington when I take a moment to remind myself that when I play a wargame I'm gaming events that were someone's worst nightmare and possibly the last instant of their lives. 

I still do it, as a military history guy I can't get over my attachment to the subject and my interest in hardware both ancient and modern, but sometimes it's important to keep that in perspective.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 24, 2022, 04:47:08 PM
Fascinating.  So you send in your newbs into a hotzone because:

1. You are saving your crack troops for something even more important or bigger than Ukraine
2. You really don't have a good army anymore and have to rely on inexperienced soldiers
3. You although you know you will easily win the war why waste good troops when you can use cannon fodder

Am I missing anything else that could be added to the list?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 24, 2022, 04:53:30 PM
All is not quiet on the Russian home front.  https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russia-cracks-down-on-home-front-as-its-troops-invade-ukraine/ar-AAUgsfw?ocid=msedgntp
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AAUgsfs.img?h=401&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f)© Reuters/ANTON VAGANOV People participate in anti-war protest, in Saint Petersburg

QuoteMOSCOW (Reuters) - Police on Thursday detained more than 1,600 Russians who protested against Russia's multi-pronged military operation in Ukraine, while authorities threatened to block media reports that contain what Moscow described as "false information".

In acts of cautious, but unusual dissent, Russian pop stars, journalists, a television comedian and a footballer opposed the war online after President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday.

Even Navalny has managed to comment from jail: 
QuoteFrom jail where he appeared at a hearing, Navalny condemned the war as a attempt by the Kremlin to distract from domestic problems like poverty, though it was unclear if he understood the full scale of the invasion from behind bars.

"I'm against this war ... It was unleashed to conceal the robbery of Russia's citizens ... and this war will lead to an enormous number of victims from both sides, ruined lives and a continuation of the impoverishment of Russian citizens," the anti-corruption activist said in footage of the remarks aired by his spokesperson.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 04:55:58 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on February 24, 2022, 04:47:08 PM
Fascinating.  So you send in your newbs into a hotzone because:

1. You are saving your crack troops for something even more important or bigger than Ukraine
2. You really don't have a good army anymore and have to rely on inexperienced soldiers
3. You although you know you will easily win the war why waste good troops when you can use cannon fodder

Am I missing anything else that could be added to the list?

A lot of it is to wear down the opposition with weaker forces and soak up the limited supply of western supplied weapons. 

You want the Ukrainians to waste their Javelins on C-D grade T-72's and older APCs rather than your front line T-80/90s.  You can send in the better formations in the second wave after the enemy has taken a lot of casualties and expended a lot of ordinance/exhaustion on the first.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 05:27:47 PM
I've read many reports of the Ukrainians fighting back with skill. They are not rolling over, just as they promised.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 05:31:53 PM
Quote

This quote is from w8minute and I messed it up and he makes some very good points

Fascinating.  So you send in your newbs into a hotzone because:

1. You are saving your crack troops for something even more important or bigger than Ukraine
2. You really don't have a good army anymore and have to rely on inexperienced soldiers
3. You although you know you will easily win the war why waste good troops when you can use cannon fodder

Am I missing anything else that could be added to the list?

  Yeah.  The whole thing is pointless so why not just randomly drive some old tanks vaguely toward the enemy?  And what's the mess in Sumy about? 
  Why go there at all if you are invading the Ukraine?  it's not even on the road to anywhere and it right on the border anyway so why not just by-pass it?
Oh wait.  I forgot.  The whole thing is pointless so why not just have a mess in Sumy?

  And while I'm on the subject...okay, suppose the Russians accomplish their objectives and kill the ex-comedian who is in charge of the Ukraine and substitute
some proper crony...then they just leave?  Kill one old comedy act and get somebody more like Lubochienkov in Belarus to make real jokes for a change?

   There's no way for the Russians to make this look anything other than pointless and pathetic.

  Oh and that reminds me: one US intelligence briefing mentioned that it looks like the Russians were not using their best electronic warfare assets.  Well, why not?
Just too much trouble?  You want to have a war but -- since you are just replacing one comedian with another -- why bother using your best electronic warfare assets?

  I can imagine the scene (as done by some bad comedians i guess) -- hey lets turn on some of our better jamming gear -- nah, too much trouble, let the Ukrainians slaughter
the conscipts and we'll have a real war with some real point to it when we get a real comedian to kill.

  Oh, but things might get serious after all...one video of what looks like a totally obliterated Russian convoy does feature a T-80 tank with its turret blown off.

  And from the Senate Intelligence committee:

  Mr. Warner said it was too soon to draw any firm conclusions about the Russian operation, but Moscow appeared to be seeing a stronger opposition from Ukrainians
than Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian president, had expected.

"I think the Russians expectation of how quickly they would be militarily successful was both overly ambitious from day one and underestimating the will
of the Ukrainian people," Mr. Warner said.

  Or of course, even Putin thought the whole thing was more trouble than it was worth so why...you know...use your electronic assets?  Just sort of blow up a lot of stuff and
get that Comedian replaced!

  Or maybe just get the series back on Netflix:

  Before being elected president in 2019, the 44-year-old played the role of an abusive school teacher in the political satire Servant of the People, which also streamed on Netflix.

On the show, Volodymyr Zelensky's character becomes the president of Ukraine after a video of his rant against the government, posted online by his students, becomes viral.

The television show, created by a production house founded by Zelensky, was prescient in a way.

In 2018, members of the production company, Kvartal 95, launched a political party named after the series. Later that year, the party declared Zelensky as its candidate for Ukraine's 2019 presidential election.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 24, 2022, 06:02:50 PM
what are the sites that you guys are getting your news and imagery from?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 06:09:19 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 24, 2022, 06:02:50 PM
what are the sites that you guys are getting your news and imagery from?

  New York Times in my case and CNN
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 06:28:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 24, 2022, 06:02:50 PM
what are the sites that you guys are getting your news and imagery from?

I've been watching a lot of Youtube feeds that are combing various sites for live updates.  They're mostly sourcing from CNN, verified Twitter, Ukrainian Pravda, RT (with huge grains of salt) among others. 

Twitter's been a hotbed of live imagery.  This is a war against a country with a very high population of people with social media and smartphones.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 06:39:03 PM
Interesting early assessments here.  Weird that the Russians didn't start with a comprehensive air/cyber campaign and decapartite the Ukrainian C&C. 

Long way to go but the analysis here is that outside the thrust from Crimea the Ukrainian defense gave better than it got.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-initial-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 06:47:05 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 06:39:03 PM
Interesting early assessments here.  Weird that the Russians didn't start with a comprehensive air/cyber campaign and decapartite the Ukrainian C&C. 

Long way to go but the analysis here is that outside the thrust from Crimea the Ukrainian defense gave better than it got.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-initial-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment

Russian military operations began with a short and incomplete air campaign on February 24

     Why?  Why not actually have a war?  Why start with a short and incomplete air campaign?  Could it be that even the Russians have known all along
that the whole thing is pathetic and pointless?

     And why no decapitation strikes?  Is it just too much trouble to blow up the regime you are supposedly waging a war to remove?  Is there some Slavic taboo against
blowing up comedians?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: bobarossa on February 24, 2022, 07:01:45 PM
Russia may be witholding its best assets to prevent the west from knowing their complete capabilities.  Especially with regard to electronic warfare.  Why give us a chance to develop countermeasures for a later need?  Hopefully the Ukraine resistance will force them to use their best troops/equipment so we can develop countermeasures against future need.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 24, 2022, 07:40:04 PM
Im watching these 3 KC-35 out of Ramstein shuttle to a point over Krakow and just orbit. 
wonder whats getting the fuel.  8)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 24, 2022, 08:01:39 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on February 24, 2022, 07:01:45 PM
Russia may be witholding its best assets to prevent the west from knowing their complete capabilities.  Especially with regard to electronic warfare.  Why give us a chance to develop countermeasures for a later need?  Hopefully the Ukraine resistance will force them to use their best troops/equipment so we can develop countermeasures against future need.

I was thinking the same thing.

As for the decap strikes, someone (was it Jarhead? I haven't scrolled back through the thread) was watching private jets cycle back and forth from Kyiv to some west Atlantic island (Bermuda?): those might have been ferrying the leaders, their staffs, and their families. Has a government been set up outside? -- if so, there's no chance for a decap.

At this point, I'm starting to wonder if Putin meant to aggro NATO into trying direct military force against Russia, by attacking the target which the most Russian people might theoretically want back in the fold (not going directly after NATO allies in the Baltics instead for example), in order to gell his people together against a truly frightening outside threat which he thought he might be able to beat (unlike aggravating China, for example).

Then again, Putin may be playing the Dumbledore Gambit: have so many plots running at once that you can bet at least some of them will work out right and meanwhile no one knows what you're doing. As Chesterton used to say, there are advantages to your enemies misunderstanding you.

Or as a Fox analyst I heard today likes to say, this may only (!) be a clear example of "late-stage despotism": he's old and more ill than he seems and he wants to go out in a blaze of glory or anything like it in order to make a deep mark of some kind in history, and he doesn't think he'll be around to be held accountable for it later so why not?

Or there may be some Russian mafia ploy this is covering attention for.

Any of several dozen things might be true, and most of them aren't mutually exclusive. Thus the advantage of the Dumbledore Gambit. (Oddly, TVTropes doesn't have a category for this form of "Gambit" yet... It resembles a cross between Gambit Pileup (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/GambitPileup) and Xanatos Speed Chess (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/XanatosSpeedChess). Be aware that links to TVTropes will likely consume hours of your life, so click at your peril...!)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 08:08:54 PM
Twitter noise, some of which is coming from foreign policy sources like Rubio are saying that the Russian plan was for the airborne assaults at both airports at Kyiv to be decisive. 

Once they had control of the airports, with full air supremacy, they were going to try to take Kyiv by airlift and decapitate the Ukrainian C&C there.

The attacks on the airports failed, so now it seems the Russians are going to implement a possibly more direct strategy. 

We'll know soon enough, the rumors are Kyiv will be subject to a massive strike at or around 3am their time, which will be followed by a heavier renewed ground offensive to cut off the city.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2022, 08:45:35 PM
I got a lot of news (by accident really) from Sky News (UK).

Still very hard to believe this is actually happening.

Much like Toonces said above, fascinating and horrifying at the same time.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 09:21:48 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on February 24, 2022, 07:01:45 PM
Russia may be witholding its best assets to prevent the west from knowing their complete capabilities.  Especially with regard to electronic warfare.  Why give us a chance to develop countermeasures for a later need?  Hopefully the Ukraine resistance will force them to use their best troops/equipment so we can develop countermeasures against future need.

   That makes sense, but if they seem have a lot of trouble in the Ukraine because they don't use their best stuff, then in effect they are deterring themselves and making themselves look pathetic.
Of course that may be their actual plan -- to show the world Russia is a third-rate power on its way down that really was threatened by something ( its own ineptitude maybe?).
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 09:26:30 PM
Live stream of Kyiv is now showing regular explosions.  Looks like the air strikes are starting...

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2022, 09:31:34 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 09:26:30 PM
Live stream of Kyiv is now showing regular explosions.  Looks like the air strikes are starting...


  What happened to the black-out?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 24, 2022, 09:32:02 PM
Well, yeah, if the airport captures failed (a very classic airborne assault mission), Putin either has to try a direct push to rescue his gold-level drop-troops, or let them be burned out and wasted behind the lines as the Ukrainians grind them up. The only good news for Putin in that scenario, is that his elite drop-troops do have some proportionately elite ability to fight toward the rescue pushes (albeit in a lightly armed low-supply sort of way).


The refusal to show off their top-line assets so far may be simply a result of Putin painting himself into the corner of a dilemma's horns (so to speak): he hadn't thought he would need to do so, but now he has to choose whether to start playing (and thus revealing) what trump cards he holds, or else cut his losses and walk away from the table.

But then again, he might have been planning to do walk away from the table anyway -- just not so soon. A solid win condition for him might be: a) secure the larger western side of those two rump 'republics'; b.) secure acknowledged cessation of Crimea to his control; and c.) threaten Ukraine with more of the same if they sniff toward NATO again. Then he pulls back his troops out of the areas he can't take (yet) and announces victory to his people.

But such a strategy necessarily requires him to have a solid enough hold on large enough tracts of land (...Monty Python allusion not originally intended but kept for the effect...) that he can trade leaving those areas for what he's willing to keep (for now), plus doing enough damage to the Ukraine military that they don't have a good chance of punching him out without concessions.

So if his lower-class troops can't take that stand, he has to reveal his better cards or walk away with nothing but shame for trying.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 24, 2022, 09:35:24 PM
Meanwhile, today's Epic Economist episode takes a look at how the invasion is affecting the already-sliding markets. There was a bit of a rally, sort of, as the market realized the West's sanctions weren't going to be so bad yet, but (arguably) that rally won't be enough.



(The episodes are a bit overproduced, including the click-baity thumbnail, but the source material is solid. ;) )
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 24, 2022, 10:53:02 PM
Ukrainian Member of Parliament on Laure Ingram tonight claims that Putin's attempt to blitz the country in one day has failed and the Ukrainian Army is holding well everywhere. Maybe the new, 'Bagdad Bob', but I hope he's right. 'Kiev Karl'?  :-"
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 24, 2022, 11:06:56 PM
Regarding the rumorish report that Putin suckered some volunteers to train on the border with promises they wouldn't be shooting, and suffered some mutiny when surprise they're gonna be shooting (and shot at) after all:

At first that didn't make sense to me. But then I remembered, in Russian (previously Soviet) mobilization theory you don't play games with mobilization: if a modern nation calls up its reserves, it is dang well going to war even if its politicians later decide they'd rather not! (This goes back at least as far as the very detailed arguments of Boris Shaposhnikov, based on studies of World War I and other lesser early modern conflicts. Alas none of his works seem available in English.)

Whatever else Putin was doing, he was playing games on the border with options not to invade (despite weeks of planning and setup beforehand, as we can now see). So, how far does he mobilize to do that, and so signal to anyone who studies Russian strategy that he's about to invade?

If he signs up a significant amount of super-green troops, however, and puts them through training on the border -- telling them it's a diplomatic showpiece of course in order to mask the opportunities he's setting up -- then he's proportionately avoiding Shaposhnikov's "mobilization pregnancy" and also keeping observers guessing about his intentions. (Until he starts sending combat hospitals to the front line, of course, which is a clear signal to any such observers that he sure ain't preparing to hunker down on defense!)

This makes me curious again about what his backfield logistics look like. Training logistics, however extensive they may be for 120K combined-arms troops (even increasing to nearly 200K), fall far short of invasion logistics for those same troops, which in themselves fall far short of occupation logistics (taking and holding areas, not only shooting to destroy the enemy). And that's along one axis of advance, for example to take and hold the claimed eastern 'republics'. If you're launching combined-force ops across multiple fronts, your logistic challenges and requirements increase at least proportionately.

Putin is now into Day 2. Day 1 hasn't gone so well as he could hope, despite some successes, and has also ignited some daring civil unrest movements in his interior lines, which his system is in no condition to tolerate. What kind of solid logistic support does he have behind his thrusts (of various kinds -- allowing that his logistics might be better for some kinds of attack than others)?

Are his logistics like butter being spread over too much bread? Are they like breadlines with no hope of more butter? Even if he has plenty of bread and butter at the moment, it isn't a good idea to shove your invasion logistic support up to the line at (relatively) the last moment, even to keep your enemy misled or unsure about your real intentions: he might have a jumbled pile (or widely scattered jumbled piles) of not-much-more-to-come to feed his war with.

Even if he succeeds (with all those air strikes, manned and unmanned) in fragmenting Ukraine's settled interior lines, its own logistic bone structure and muscles, that won't positively help support his own invasion. He's got to have good structure already, to even efficiently use captured Ukrainian logistics.

Supposing however that he has solidly developed and supplied a multi-front combined-arms logistics system around Ukraine, able in theory to support substantial invasion time (or even occupation time): can his economy efficiently (or even theoretically) feed that logistics network in practice?

By Day 7 we'll have a better picture about how his backfield is doing, I guess.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 24, 2022, 11:57:17 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 24, 2022, 11:06:56 PM
....

Are his logistics like butter being spread over too much bread? Are they like breadlines with no hope of more butter? Even if he has plenty of bread and butter at the moment, it isn't a good idea to shove your invasion logistic support up to the line at (relatively) the last moment, even to keep your enemy misled or unsure about your real intentions: he might have a jumbled pile (or widely scattered jumbled piles) of not-much-more-to-come to feed his war with.

....

By Day 7 we'll have a better picture about how his backfield is doing, I guess.

I agree, I think in week we will know. But now, I think the situation is probably so chaotic on the ground that probably nobody really knows what is going on. I am pretty wary of any reports we hear at this time.

If indeed, the Russians are not doing well, it may be down to just "experience." When the Germans invaded Poland in 1939, the German Army was so poor at large scale operations that for a very brief window of time it seemed like the Poles might hold them off. There were German generals who started to wonder if they would have to pull out. But the Germans learned quickly, made corrections, and over time the weight of German numbers ground the Poles down (of course the Poles were truly lost when Stalin stabbed them in the back). Part of me wonders if that is what we are seeing today. This slow advance is just the result of an Army who hasn't done something on this scale in 77 years. They are still learning how to move.

In terms of logistics, the Ukrainians are apparently saying that some prisoners have been near starving. Maybe...maybe...

I am wondering why no "shock and awe." According to the CNN reporter on the ground in Moscow, Russian media is playing up the idea that Russian forces are exercising extreme restraint to limit civilian casualties and treat Ukrainian prisoners well. The CNN reporter felt this was because many Russians have family ties in Ukraine and this was a play to assuage their fears. Maybe there really is restraint...maybe...maybe...

They are possibly trying to avoid the pictures we saw 30 years ago when the Coalition attacked Baghdad. Even if true, how long will the Russians exercise restraint if they are taking it on the nose?

My favorite story so far was from Alexander Vindman on CNN. Apparently Ukrainian social media is alight with the story of "The Ghost of Kyiv"; a Ukrainian Mig 29 pilot who supposedly shot down six Russian aircraft today. On the surface it sounds like just a wishful rumor. None of the major news services are carrying it. Still, a Mig 29 is very nimble, and would have been in a target rich environment, over friendly AA territory...maybe...maybe...  If true, it will be a heck of a story.  Here is a link for what its worth...

https://showbizcorner.com/ghost-of-kyiv-mig-29-ukraine-ace-fulcrum-pilot (https://showbizcorner.com/ghost-of-kyiv-mig-29-ukraine-ace-fulcrum-pilot)




Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 25, 2022, 12:34:32 AM
Finland moving closer to NATO?

A few weeks back Finland's Prime Minister was saying there was no discussion of joining NATO.  Today she said the "debate had changed."

The President of Finland "was asked by a journalist what he now thinks of Russian President Vladimir Putin following the failure of diplomatic efforts and the launch of military action in Ukraine.

"The mask has now come off and only the cold face of war is visible," Niinistö responded."


https://yle.fi/news/3-12332089 (https://yle.fi/news/3-12332089)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 25, 2022, 06:34:45 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 25, 2022, 12:34:32 AM
Finland moving closer to NATO?


  Yep.  I think in some ways Putin has managed to send a message that is not what he intended.  It seems like the Putin message might be read as "Join NATO or die."

  And CNN sees some local Russian reporting that the Ukrainians have hit a Russian airfield at Millerovo:

Komsomolskaya Pravda, a local newspaper, reported that a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile hit the military facility on Friday 25, citing a source in the law enforcement agencies of the region.

Another media outlet, the Rostov Gazeta, reported Millerovo was attacked by armed formations of the Ukrainian army. It also reported an unspecified number of wounded.



Could be a commando raid on a Russian airfield.

And:

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said airborne assault troops blew up a bridge over the Teteriv River at Ivankiv, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) north of Kyiv,
successfully preventing a Russian column of forces from advancing towards the capital.


I guess the Ukrainians have some command and control and mobile forces left.  Also the Chinese say Putin is "ready to talk" (apparently with the Comedian he is trying to kill?  Or maybe
some other comedian who has killed that particular comedian? ).  Ready to talk "at a high level"..."no jokes please.  This is serious.  Just look at all the stuff we've blown up and we aren't even really
seriously trying.  Okay, I mean we are seriously trying, right?"

One wonders what Putin would have to say to any particular Ukrainian comedian.  Something like, "Did you finally kill that comedian?"

Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov also said more than 200 people from Ukrainian special units had been killed.

Strange they don't say where this happened.  The Bridge north of Kiev or Millerovo?  Maybe?  Anyway, I'm sure casualties are in the thousands by this point which makes it even stranger
that 200 special forces are mentioned.  Perhaps they hit the Russians hard somewhere.

And Putin is getting angry:

Addressing the Ukrainian military in a televised address, a visibly angry Putin urged the military to "take power in your own hands".

Okay so...try to sort out what Putin wants...he wants to "negotiate"...but apparently not with Zelensky, yet it seems a little late to ask the army he is attacking to engage in a
coordinated mutiny and if he destroys them then they can't take power, so he has to kill X number so that the survivors will not surrender, but mutiny.  it seems like he has to
make some kind of plausible offer...a ceasefire or something if he wants results on that front.
Meanwhile, there seems to be some other offer of negotiations via Belarus, which again would seem to presuppose some kind of ceasefire.  So it appears there is some notion
floating somewhere in the Russian plan to isolate Kiev and then offer a ceasefire.  What might be tricky about that is that I doubt even NATO would sit by while a whole city is
held hostage.
Moreover, what guarantees can the Russians offer at this point...are they just going to leave on the proviso that they can come back any time and do anything they want in a
"neutral" demilitarized Ukraine?  How could the Ukrainians possibly agree to a situation where the next time around they don't even have an army?  Or any allies?

  The Russians now say the Ukrainians are lying about being willing to negotiate.  Kinda hard to figure that one out.

Meanwhile this is probably a Russian fabrication since US intell reportedly says they haven't seen any big airlifts on day 2, also the "200" sounds suspicious and there are videos showing Russian jets and helicopters going down:

More than 200 Russian helicopters were involved in the operation," according to the statement. "The success of the landing was ensured by the suppression of the entire air defense system in the landing area, the complete isolation of the combat area from the air and the active conduct of electronic warfare."

Konashenkov claimed that Russian forces killed more than 200 of the opposing forces and that there were no casualties among in the Russian Armed Forces.


On the other hand, they are definitely pushing into the area of Kiev one way or another.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 08:04:54 AM
Russians are advancing on Kiev now.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: steve58 on February 25, 2022, 08:26:41 AM
Interesting...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497128689384919040

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tank-soviet-union-ukraine-invasion-dnieper-war-video-1682593
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: W8taminute on February 25, 2022, 09:11:06 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 24, 2022, 04:55:58 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on February 24, 2022, 04:47:08 PM
Fascinating.  So you send in your newbs into a hotzone because:

1. You are saving your crack troops for something even more important or bigger than Ukraine
2. You really don't have a good army anymore and have to rely on inexperienced soldiers
3. You although you know you will easily win the war why waste good troops when you can use cannon fodder

Am I missing anything else that could be added to the list?

A lot of it is to wear down the opposition with weaker forces and soak up the limited supply of western supplied weapons. 

You want the Ukrainians to waste their Javelins on C-D grade T-72's and older APCs rather than your front line T-80/90s.  You can send in the better formations in the second wave after the enemy has taken a lot of casualties and expended a lot of ordinance/exhaustion on the first.

That makes sense.  I was wondering why am I only seeing old T-72s in all the news videos.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 09:13:26 AM
Quote from: steve58 on February 25, 2022, 08:26:41 AM
Interesting...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497128689384919040

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tank-soviet-union-ukraine-invasion-dnieper-war-video-1682593

Not really...soldiers often times fly stupid flags on their vehicles. I'm fairly certain the majority of the Russian army is not composed of hardline Soviets.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 09:39:20 AM
From BBC live:
"Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said earlier the city had "entered into a defensive phase".

The government is calling on the people of Kyiv to do everything it can to resist Russian troops, including making Molotov cocktails and taking up arms."

If they add Полістиролу it will gel and stick.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 25, 2022, 09:46:28 AM
I really think the next step for NATO is to pull a Putin and send in their own little Green Men with plausible deniability.
NATO Special Forces/Volunteer units backed with CCCI info and MANPAD/ATGM training would put a world of hurt on Russian forces in urban combat.
Con
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Yskonyn on February 25, 2022, 09:58:25 AM
I think it would be a very logical step.
Clandestine ops. But the shit really hits the fan if these troops or operatives would become captured and shown to the world by Russia.
I am not sure NATO / US is willing to take that risk right at this moment.
Or perhaps ops like these are already underway and Zelensky has agreed to keep asking for support in public to make Poetin think there is hardly any still.
Hard to say.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 10:03:28 AM
From BBC live regarding Chernobyl reactor:

QuoteA radiation spike has been recorded around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Data from monitoring stations suggests the levels of radiation increased about 20-fold on Thursday.

"Around the reactor you would normally receive a dose of around 3 units (called microsieverts) every hour - that's jumped to 65," explains Sheffield University nuclear materials expert Prof Claire Corkhill.

"That's about five times more than you would get on a transatlantic flight."

The most likely explanation, she says, is increased movement of people and vehicles in the 4,000 square km Chernobyl exclusion zone has kicked up radioactive dust that is usually undisturbed on the ground.

You get 5 microsieverts from a dental x-ray.  100 from a chest x-ray.  There was hearsay about shelling in the area, hopefully not true as if the protective covering of the reactor had been damaged it would be a disaster.  If through some stupendous act of stupidity the cover is damaged and you can't get iodine, broccoli has large amounts of iodine.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 25, 2022, 10:41:23 AM
"Ghost of Kyiv" Mig 29 ace...hitting at least one major news source... But still probably just a story.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/who-is-the-ghost-of-kyiv-ukraine-mig-29-fighter-pilot-becomes-the-stuff-of-legend/ar-AAUiPL7?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/who-is-the-ghost-of-kyiv-ukraine-mig-29-fighter-pilot-becomes-the-stuff-of-legend/ar-AAUiPL7?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 11:08:56 AM
The news about Chernobyl...*shudder*
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 25, 2022, 11:14:27 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 11:08:56 AM
The news about Chernobyl...*shudder*
the Russians will fabricate some horror story about the Ukranians cooking up  evil stuff at Chernobyl as a justification for war.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 11:22:13 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 25, 2022, 10:41:23 AM
"Ghost of Kyiv" Mig 29 ace...hitting at least one major news source... But still probably just a story.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/who-is-the-ghost-of-kyiv-ukraine-mig-29-fighter-pilot-becomes-the-stuff-of-legend/ar-AAUiPL7?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/who-is-the-ghost-of-kyiv-ukraine-mig-29-fighter-pilot-becomes-the-stuff-of-legend/ar-AAUiPL7?ocid=msedgntp)

My money is on SAMs and MANPADS being the source of most Russian aviation losses. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 11:26:01 AM
Some insane images here.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/14/world/gallery/ukraine-russia-crisis/index.html
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 25, 2022, 11:29:54 AM
From the BBC today : Putin tells Ukraine military to 'take power into your own hands'

Here's more from Vladimir Putin, who is addressing the Russian Security Council - and, indirectly, the Ukrainian military.
He says Banderites - a reference to World War Two anti-Soviet fighter Stepan Bandera - and so-called neo-Nazis "have put up heavy armaments including multiple rocket launch systems" in cities, including Kyiv and Kharkiv.
"Neo-Nazis" is regularly used by President Putin to deride the Ukrainian government. Ukraine's President Zelensky, who is Jewish, has dismissed the term.
Putin says: "They are acting like terrorists across the world, shielding behind people in order to accuse Russia of causing casualties among the peaceful population.
"It is known for sure that all this is happening on recommendations from foreign consultants, American advisers above all."
He then addresses Ukrainian forces.
"I am addressing Ukrainian armed forces servicemen once again: do not allow neo-Nazis and Banderites to use your children, your wives and the elderly as a human shield
"Take power into your own hands. It looks like you and us will find it easier to reach an agreement than with that gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis in Kyiv.".


This guy is totally out of touch with reality and he just created a false pretext to justify bombing cities.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Windigo on February 25, 2022, 11:38:10 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 24, 2022, 07:40:04 PM
Im watching these 3 KC-35 out of Ramstein shuttle to a point over Krakow and just orbit. 
wonder whats getting the fuel.  8)

I thought the same thing.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 11:45:11 AM
Quote from: Windigo on February 25, 2022, 11:38:10 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 24, 2022, 07:40:04 PM
Im watching these 3 KC-35 out of Ramstein shuttle to a point over Krakow and just orbit. 
wonder whats getting the fuel.  8)

I thought the same thing.

I see several Extenders over Poland and a few circling around in Romania. A bunch more drones this morning, including RQ-4s and IAI Herons out of Malta!

Things are pretty quiet now. This morning EST there was a lot more activity including a number of fighter and strike aircraft.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 25, 2022, 11:46:05 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 25, 2022, 11:29:54 AM
From the BBC today : Putin tells Ukraine military to 'take power into your own hands'

Here's more from Vladimir Putin, who is addressing the Russian Security Council - and, indirectly, the Ukrainian military.
He says Banderites - a reference to World War Two anti-Soviet fighter Stepan Bandera - and so-called neo-Nazis "have put up heavy armaments including multiple rocket launch systems" in cities, including Kyiv and Kharkiv.
"Neo-Nazis" is regularly used by President Putin to deride the Ukrainian government. Ukraine's President Zelensky, who is Jewish, has dismissed the term.
Putin says: "They are acting like terrorists across the world, shielding behind people in order to accuse Russia of causing casualties among the peaceful population.
"It is known for sure that all this is happening on recommendations from foreign consultants, American advisers above all."
He then addresses Ukrainian forces.
"I am addressing Ukrainian armed forces servicemen once again: do not allow neo-Nazis and Banderites to use your children, your wives and the elderly as a human shield
"Take power into your own hands. It looks like you and us will find it easier to reach an agreement than with that gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis in Kyiv.".


This guy is totally out of touch with reality and he just created a false pretext to justify bombing cities.

  I agree he's kind of far around the bend and not wrapped too tight and not playing with a full deck of cards BUT, if he wants to hold Kiev hostage while he calls a ceasefire and "negotiates"
he can't go too far in leveling the city just yet.  He can always do that later when "negotiations" aren't working.

  Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, has warned both Finland and Sweden that they will face "detrimental military and political consequences" if they attempt to join Nato.

   Maybe they should join NATO now while Russia is busy blowing up a country that didn't join NATO.  It seems like if this is the way its going to be...now might be the right time to strike back at Russia since it doesn't sound like sitting around is going to stop them.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 11:55:41 AM
About Chernobyl, 65 microsieverts an hour is only a very small, very local issue.  If the Russians make another propaganda claim, that's all that it will be, more propaganda.

A very serious issue is the reluctance to cut Russia off from SWIFT but here are the stated reasons why.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-unlikely-cut-russia-off-swift-now-sources-say-2022-02-24/

QuoteSeveral EU sources had told Reuters before the sanctions were announced that the EU was unlikely to agree to the move, despite calls from various quarters to do so. read more

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany - a key trading partner of Russia - opposed cutting off Russia's access to the payment system at this point, but also suggested such a step could still follow at a later stage.
QuoteData from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) shows that European lenders hold the lion's share of the nearly $30 billion in foreign banks' exposure to Russia.
To you and me, $30 billion is a lot of money.  To the EU it is not especially in the balance of a very serious blow to the Russian economy.  However, Russia is making alternative banking arrangements and I suspect they have been deliberately relaxed in paying down debts.
Ukraine needs to continue fighting bravely and cause as many casualties as they can, but a military solution is not an option for them.  NATO will not fight for Ukraine, covert supplying and other support will be possible but not even Poland or Romania can send covert volunteer soldiers.  The insurgency to come will be terrible.  Think partisan activity during WWII, think Ukrainian partisans until nearly 1950, think Klemov's Come and See
The West needs to act significantly now and not be pennywise, pound foolish.  Ultimately, removal of the Russian kleptocracy is an ideal endgame but it will require sacrifice.  From the National Post,
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/terry-glavin-putin-and-his-cronies-need-to-be-crushed-you-can-t-talk-peace-with-monsters/ar-AAUgTw0?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
QuoteUkraine deserves to be provided with all the aid and materiel necessary to wage what will surely be a long and bloody guerrilla resistance. The government and the people of Ukraine should be given every assistance they request.

Vladimir Putin and all his generals and his cronies need to be crushed. They need to be finished. They need to be brought to an end. Every last one of his oligarchs need to be hunted and hounded to the ends of the earth, their billions of dollars' worth of holdings in real estate and mining and every other industry and bolthole from Chelsea to Toronto should be frozen, seized and expropriated.

Expel his diplomats. Shutter his embassies. Evict every Russian official from every multilateral and international forum. Bankrupt the lot of them. Diplomacy does not work with these people. You can't talk peace with these monsters.

The only subject of discussion to be had with any of them is the terms of their abject surrender.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 12:06:36 PM
Ward Carroll is reporting on the Ghost of Kyiv as if it is confirmed...maybe it is?

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 25, 2022, 01:00:32 PM
man alive that's a beautiful airplane.    :smitten:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Zulu1966 on February 25, 2022, 01:02:36 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 12:06:36 PM
Ward Carroll is reporting on the Ghost of Kyiv as if it is confirmed...maybe it is?



I certainly hope it is.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 25, 2022, 01:33:57 PM
Quote from: Zulu1966 on February 25, 2022, 01:02:36 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 12:06:36 PM
Ward Carroll is reporting on the Ghost of Kyiv as if it is confirmed...maybe it is?



I certainly hope it is.

If true it would be a story like the French ace Jean Navarre "The Sentinel of Verdun" who thrilled French troops with his bright red Neuport over no man's land during the German Verdun offensive in 1916.

http://www.donhollway.com/jeannavarre/ (http://www.donhollway.com/jeannavarre/)

Or, the British Gloster Gladiators named "Faith, Hope and Charity" defending Malta during Italian air assaults in 1940.

https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/british-biplanes-faith-hope-charity-1940 (https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/british-biplanes-faith-hope-charity-1940)

Or, the exploits of the outnumbered Finnish air force during the dark days of Stalin's Winter War in 1940.


Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 01:37:06 PM
I wish we could lift Ukrainian spirits with a little bit of, "BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTT!!!!!"

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 25, 2022, 01:39:52 PM
Although it may not change the eventual outcome, I think that Putin's group does not understand the magnitude of the effect that the free flow of information and video allowed by cell phones and the internet has on the attitude and opinion of the world's population. I also believe that the giddy proponents of this brave, new world overestimate the  influence that this new paradigm has on determined autocracies.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 25, 2022, 01:44:55 PM
I bellowed with laughter some days ago when commentators predicted that Putin would not attack Ukraine because it would make him an international pariah.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: acctingman on February 25, 2022, 01:46:41 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 01:37:06 PM
I wish we could lift Ukrainian spirits with a little bit of, "BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTT!!!!!"



This is (imo) one of three most psychologically devastating sounds in modern combat history:

A-10's guns
Stuka siren
MG34/42 rof and it's distinctive sound
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Hot lead and dirty talk! on February 25, 2022, 01:52:36 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 01:37:06 PM
I wish we could lift Ukrainian spirits with a little bit of, "BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTT!!!!!"



I giggled every time it was fired and I don't giggle...ever!
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 25, 2022, 02:00:04 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 01:37:06 PM
I wish we could lift Ukrainian spirits with a little bit of, "BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTT!!!!!"


A squadron of A-10s, with a bit of air cover, would indeed solve most of the pest problems that Ukraine has today.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 02:02:46 PM
The su-27 requires a 240m runway.  If the Ua airforce is operating from ones very close to the NATO borders, it would be very unwise to bomb, rocket or maybe even conduct ground attacks.

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg has clearly stated that NATO is providing weaponry, equipment and cyber assistace to its partner Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 02:42:52 PM
Ukraine has Hinds too!



Reminds me of the scene from Red Dawn when shortly after the invasion, a Huey attacks a Soviet road block.



Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 25, 2022, 02:44:15 PM
Thinking more on the MiG-29 Ghost story, can you imagine what that must be like for that pilot?

He rolls off the runway and essentially everything flying around him is an enemy plane.  Meanwhile, with all the Russian friendly aircraft flying, that one lone MiG-29 is almost invulnerable because the Russians would assume its friendly, or at least be reluctant to shoot for fear of fratricide.

And so the Ghost goes up there and it's like he can just pickle missiles at anything that comes within a weapon envelope without worry of hitting a friendly.  Truly a once in a lifetime, maybe once in a generation event.

What a fucking stud.  How he fit his balls into that cockpit....   :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 02:53:23 PM
I wonder if there have been any Hind/Hind helicopter dogfights. Has there ever been a recorded helicopter dogfight anywhere?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 03:12:19 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 02:53:23 PM
I wonder if there have been any Hind/Hind helicopter dogfights. Has there ever been a recorded helicopter dogfight anywhere?

Yes, in South America in the 90's. 

There's even footage...

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 03:12:59 PM
 8)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 25, 2022, 03:24:35 PM
Quote from: Toonces on February 25, 2022, 02:44:15 PM
Thinking more on the MiG-29 Ghost story, can you imagine what that must be like for that pilot?

Ace Combat scenario for real!
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 25, 2022, 03:35:52 PM
This story almost makes McAuliffe's answer of "nuts" at Bastogne sound tame...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/snake-island-soldiers-defiant-last-words-as-russian-warship-targets-them/ar-AAUhq0Y?ocid=undefined (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/snake-island-soldiers-defiant-last-words-as-russian-warship-targets-them/ar-AAUhq0Y?ocid=undefined)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 03:46:32 PM
^I saw that earlier and thought 'wow that's awesome how they told the Russian warship to f off' until I discovered the Russians then opened fire and killed the Ukrainian defenders.

Have any Ukrainian cities fallen to the Russians? I am seeing reports on the NYTimes that there is 'vicious fighting' happening around Kharkov.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 25, 2022, 03:54:08 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 03:46:32 PM
^I saw that earlier and thought 'wow that's awesome how they told the Russian warship to f off' until I discovered the Russians then opened fire and killed the Ukrainian defenders.

Have any Ukrainian cities fallen to the Russians? I am seeing reports on the NYTimes that there is 'vicious fighting' happening around Kharkov.

  Sumy was taken (oh and some town north of the Crimea..Kherson?).  Not sure why.  Mauripol seems likely to be surrounded soon.  Probably Kiev, Odessa and Kharkov surrounded some time in the next few days.

  And if blowing up everything doesn't work (work to do what?  exactly?  Nobody seems to know what invading the Ukraine is exactly supposed to accomplish since it seems mostly
likely to have the diametrically opposite result -- "Join NATO or die") killing everybody might work:

"Our information also indicates that Russia plans to threaten killing the family members of Ukrainian soldiers if they do not surrender," the official said, who
also commended the "incredible bravery" that the Ukrainians showed in the first day of fighting.


I'm not sure how that would work.  First you have to locate the family members and then match them to soldiers who have not surrendered.  Sounds like an administrative nightmare.
I think the Russians will take the obvious short-cut and just kill everybody who is not in NATO.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 04:13:57 PM
In really bad news..

The Russians are mobilizing Chechen conscripts for what is almost sure to be the occupation phase.

Putin can have non-ethnic Russians absorb the casualties of an insurgency.  And of course the Chechen reputation for brutality precedes them. 

As I said, the war will be bad, but the aftermath of a Russian victory will be worse.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 04:18:26 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 04:13:57 PM
In really bad news..

The Russians are mobilizing Chechen conscripts for what is almost sure to be the occupation phase.

Putin can have non-ethnic Russians absorb the casualties of an insurgency.  And of course the Chechen reputation for brutality precedes them. 

As I said, the war will be bad, but the aftermath of a Russian victory will be worse.

Last time I checked, Chechens liked killing Russians. I don't see them rushing to kill Ukrainians.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 04:19:06 PM
How will victory be defined here? We probably don't want the real Russian answer.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 25, 2022, 04:21:18 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 03:46:32 PM
^I saw that earlier and thought 'wow that's awesome how they told the Russian warship to f off' until I discovered the Russians then opened fire and killed the Ukrainian defenders.

There is more audio available where you hear the Ukrainian soldiers talking between themselves saying 'well, this is it' ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y2iVHUMZhg
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 04:22:47 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 04:18:26 PM

Last time I checked, Chechens liked killing Russians. I don't see them rushing to kill Ukrainians.

We can hope that their conscripts won't be motivated to do so.  However, it's easy to open a history book and see the Russian playbook on occupation and insurgency.

Clearly the Russians won't trust Chechen formations in the invasion, but I can imagine them casually executing Russian reprisals in an insurgency.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 25, 2022, 04:32:27 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 25, 2022, 03:54:08 PM
"Our information also indicates that Russia plans to threaten killing the family members of Ukrainian soldiers if they do not surrender," the official said, who
also commended the "incredible bravery" that the Ukrainians showed in the first day of fighting.


Compare that with what Russians see on TV today :

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that "nobody is going to attack the people of Ukraine," despite the continuation of strikes by Russian forces on Friday, "there will be no strikes on civilian infrastructure."
"I will stress: read what Putin said. No strikes on civilian infrastructure, no strikes on the personnel of the Ukrainian army, on their dormitories, or other places not connected to the military facilities. The statistics that we have confirm this," Lavrov said.
"Nobody is going to somehow degrade the Ukrainian Armed Forces".

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 04:35:34 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 04:22:47 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 25, 2022, 04:18:26 PM

Last time I checked, Chechens liked killing Russians. I don't see them rushing to kill Ukrainians.

We can hope that their conscripts won't be motivated to do so.  However, it's easy to open a history book and see the Russian playbook on occupation and insurgency.

Clearly the Russians won't trust Chechen formations in the invasion, but I can imagine them casually executing Russian reprisals in an insurgency.

Kadyrov has Chechnya cowed, but I don't think he will have instilled fierce loyalty to Russia in Chechens.  You would think the Chechens have more in common with Crimean Tatars than Russians. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 04:38:16 PM
Where did Stalin deport the Don Cossacks to?  Stalin deported the Crimean Tatars to Uzbek SSR.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 04:44:41 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 25, 2022, 04:32:27 PM

Compare that with what Russians see on TV today :

I don't trust a single thing the Russians are saying, no matter how mundane. 

If they reported the sky was blue I'd go outside to check.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: acctingman on February 25, 2022, 04:44:55 PM
I haven't really followed closely as to why Pukin invaded, but I thought I read somewhere he wanted territory lost back in Russian hands? Sounds eerily familiar to some other asshat 80 years ago.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 04:46:33 PM
The Ukranians certainly are brave even this woman. 


The Russian soldier shows restraint at this time.  However, there is footage of a Russian MTLB? with launchers driving deliberately over a car.  The driver miraculously survived.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 04:47:49 PM
^It is almost identical to German claims after WWI and before WWII. Russians felt they got robbed by the end of the Cold War, similar to how Germany got robbed at the end of the First World War. It's all very creepy. Hitler would be proud of Putin if he didn't despise him for being a 'filthy slav subhuman.'
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 04:49:38 PM
Quote from: acctingman on February 25, 2022, 04:44:55 PM
I haven't really followed closely as to why Pukin invaded, but I thought I read somewhere he wanted territory lost back in Russian hands? Sounds eerily familiar to some other asshat 80 years ago.
Funny you mentioned that.  The Ukranians think the same thing, from their official Twitter account.(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AAUjgjO.img?h=768&w=1366&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 04:53:48 PM
The clip of the Russian vehicle crushing a car is nauseating and very Tianamen.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 04:57:48 PM
Quote from: acctingman on February 25, 2022, 04:44:55 PM
I haven't really followed closely as to why Pukin invaded, but I thought I read somewhere he wanted territory lost back in Russian hands? Sounds eerily familiar to some other asshat 80 years ago.

It's pretty similar. 

Putin has never recognized Ukraine's right to exist as an independent nation. 

As far back as 2008 he was quoted telling Bush "George, what you don't understand is that Ukraine isn't a country".

His pretext is their willingness to join NATO since the Donbass War.  However, that's just an excuse, one Ukrainian activist I heard today was pretty direct "We were totally neutral less than ten years ago.  We never would've wanted to join NATO if we weren't sure Putin wanted to annex us." 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 25, 2022, 05:10:31 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 25, 2022, 04:21:18 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 03:46:32 PM
^I saw that earlier and thought 'wow that's awesome how they told the Russian warship to f off' until I discovered the Russians then opened fire and killed the Ukrainian defenders.

There is more audio available where you hear the Ukrainian soldiers talking between themselves saying 'well, this is it' ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y2iVHUMZhg

What heroes. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 05:13:49 PM
Interesting analysis by Dr. Mike Martin, professor of War Studies at King's College

His analysis is that the Russians used a variant of traditional Soviet deep strike doctrine, expecting to quickly isolate Kyiv via armor thrusts and the para assaults with minimal resistance.

The Russians, in his opinion very hubristically, did not destroy the Ukrainian air force, degrade C&C, or give much or any consideration to logistical concerns, expecting to sort those out after a very quick initial strike. 

The Ukrainians have responded largely by implementing delaying actions and denying them the cities.  They now seem to be concentrating on using small AT teams to degrade Russian supply lines which the Russians did not take the time or care to set up and protect.   

The Ukrainian strategy seems to be to stop the spearheads by going for their supplies.  Insert the whole "experts study logistics" quote here.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 25, 2022, 05:21:44 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 04:44:41 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 25, 2022, 04:32:27 PM

Compare that with what Russians see on TV today :

I don't trust a single thing the Russians are saying, no matter how mundane. 

If they reported the sky was blue I'd go outside to check.

I meant a lot of Russians might react differently if they could see what we are watching (or that is what I keep hoping).  There is a reason state media are hiding the truth.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 05:26:10 PM
Well, Zelensky is speaking right now. 

He said the assault on Kyiv will be tonight and urged everyone capable to stand and fight. 

I'd be surprised to see the Russians launch a full urban assault this early, but who knows.  So far they haven't exactly followed most analysts expectations.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 05:27:05 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 05:13:49 PM
Interesting analysis by Dr. Mike Martin, professor of War Studies at King's College

Would you please post a link, as with an internet search can only find his articles up to the retreat from Afghanistan.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 05:28:48 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 05:27:05 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 05:13:49 PM
Interesting analysis by Dr. Mike Martin, professor of War Studies at King's College

Would you please post a link, as with an internet search can only find his articles up to the retreat from Afghanistan.

He did it like a hip kid and put it in a twitter thread.  I refuse to join the platform so can't post a direct link but you can find it here..

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Zulu1966 on February 25, 2022, 05:30:57 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 04:46:33 PM
The Ukranians certainly are brave even this woman. 


The Russian soldier shows restraint at this time.  However, there is footage of a Russian MTLB? with launchers driving deliberately over a car.  The driver miraculously survived.


Watch Winter on fire on netflix. Quite extraordinary. Maybe Putin should have watched it before he went in.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2022, 05:57:08 PM
BBC is reporting that UK int is saying amphibious landings are going ahead.
Thx for the link Sir A.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: steve58 on February 25, 2022, 06:48:14 PM
Came across an article (just from last year) about life in Ukraine while doing a little interneting about Ukraine in general.  This guys life there will be changing much for the worse I suspect...  :(

https://www.escapeartist.com/blog/good-bad-ugly-living-ukraine/
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 25, 2022, 06:55:46 PM
I didnt think I would but Im liking this Steve Lookner guy.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 25, 2022, 07:03:48 PM
and Forte12 needs its own Twitter account.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 25, 2022, 07:10:19 PM
There are some hardcore graphic videos on Steve Lookners twitter feed.  Brutality of war indeed captured by all the cellphones everyone carries.
Con
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 25, 2022, 07:26:11 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 25, 2022, 11:46:05 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 25, 2022, 11:29:54 AM
From the BBC today : Putin tells Ukraine military to 'take power into your own hands'

Here's more from Vladimir Putin, who is addressing the Russian Security Council - and, indirectly, the Ukrainian military.
He says Banderites - a reference to World War Two anti-Soviet fighter Stepan Bandera - and so-called neo-Nazis "have put up heavy armaments including multiple rocket launch systems" in cities, including Kyiv and Kharkiv.
"Neo-Nazis" is regularly used by President Putin to deride the Ukrainian government. Ukraine's President Zelensky, who is Jewish, has dismissed the term.
Putin says: "They are acting like terrorists across the world, shielding behind people in order to accuse Russia of causing casualties among the peaceful population.
"It is known for sure that all this is happening on recommendations from foreign consultants, American advisers above all."
He then addresses Ukrainian forces.
"I am addressing Ukrainian armed forces servicemen once again: do not allow neo-Nazis and Banderites to use your children, your wives and the elderly as a human shield
"Take power into your own hands. It looks like you and us will find it easier to reach an agreement than with that gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis in Kyiv.".


This guy is totally out of touch with reality and he just created a false pretext to justify bombing cities.

  I agree he's kind of far around the bend and not wrapped too tight and not playing with a full deck of cards BUT, if he wants to hold Kiev hostage while he calls a ceasefire and "negotiates"
he can't go too far in leveling the city just yet.  He can always do that later when "negotiations" aren't working.

  Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, has warned both Finland and Sweden that they will face "detrimental military and political consequences" if they attempt to join Nato.

   Maybe they should join NATO now while Russia is busy blowing up a country that didn't join NATO.  It seems like if this is the way its going to be...now might be the right time to strike back at Russia since it doesn't sound like sitting around is going to stop them.
Maybe Putin has advanced syphilis.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 07:31:52 PM
Yeah, I'm really surprised at how through Lookner is. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 25, 2022, 08:16:28 PM
(https://scontent.fmia1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/274473684_10158257708991560_8816069537764560739_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=A5asWuQTGYwAX-Yeu-K&_nc_ht=scontent.fmia1-2.fna&oh=00_AT8m_gwDWz6kWsZGUBogKGlMZ6Qwf4uaa0LwSSAp4Dj2vg&oe=621E95E7)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 25, 2022, 08:17:11 PM
(https://scontent.fmia1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/274787398_501660331373258_3235532903646116909_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=Sg0c4Mt7DMwAX9_HBYt&_nc_ht=scontent.fmia1-2.fna&oh=00_AT9YLD78wQxB2GPwg6-vZ26_JO2lQGXK44N0fNQxahh8Ow&oe=621E3DB2)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 25, 2022, 10:08:58 PM
I can't really deny the truth behind the last two posts at all.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Silent Disapproval Robot on February 25, 2022, 10:45:51 PM
I can't wait for reboots of shitty week-long miniseries like Amerika, Threads, and The Day After.


Also, I've now seen the same clip from Arma III posted as "totz realz war footage bruh!" by idiots on social media at least half a dozen times.  People are dumb....but now I wanna play Arma.


https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/arma-game-clip-ukraine/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/arma-game-clip-ukraine/)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 10:52:56 PM
Heavy fighting in Kyiv near Maidan Square.  Looks as if the Russians are pushing their way deep into the city.

You can eerily listen to it live on this feed while it's still up. 

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 25, 2022, 11:14:20 PM
I truly wonder if Putin is mentally deranged.  There seems to be so little of reality to his actions and of course Marco Rubios post suggests that something has physically changed in the man in the last coupe of years.


https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497393912821915648?s=20&t=fNUfajRSSvJ34Ydgz9p2Ow
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 25, 2022, 11:21:50 PM
I sit here warm and safe. In the chaos and excitement of ongoing events, it is good to remind one's self that real war is not a game.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 25, 2022, 11:29:40 PM
Well, take it with a grain of salt because it's the Ukrainian MOD and of course they'd have reason to paint a cheery picture. 

However, feeds are silent as the sun comes up, and Ukrainian internet which was down for a few hours is being restored.  The MOD is reporting that the expected overnight attack into Kyiv was repulsed.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 25, 2022, 11:36:58 PM
If this video posts its an insane testament to the citizen soldiers of Kyiv - Edit sorry dont know how to post twitter videos but if it is real I would say the Russians are getting pounded.  Take it back looks like it was from 2014


Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 12:08:47 AM
from what Ive gathered the fighting in Kiev tonight was airborne troops, possibly from the southern airport, making a dash to the leadership.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 26, 2022, 12:13:02 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 12:08:47 AM
from what Ive gathered the fighting in Kiev tonight was airborne troops, possibly from the southern airport, making a dash to the leadership.

Seems like it.   Constant reports that the Russians lost two full IL-76's but no firm confirmation.  If that's true that's a huge single loss of life if they were loaded with troops and not equipment.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 12:35:54 AM
the mechanized unit still seem to be held up towards the north.
Im also somewhat surprised at the overall low numbers of aircraft shot down.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 01:02:58 AM
Id love to see the extended play of how the awacs viewed all of this.
track histories and all.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MikeGER on February 26, 2022, 04:24:12 AM
I pray to St Javelina for the safety of the Ukrainiens \m/

(https://i.ibb.co/QvFRWpP/FMb5jhk-WYAAy3e4.jpg)

the real war and so close and only a fingerttip away on twitter with realtime footage takes a little away the joy of (modern scenario) wargaming atm ...i am torn, on the other hand  scenario builders all over the place are working their fingers to the bone wih their editors to let me simulate/analyse this conflict in all possible scales from squad to division, from a sqaremile of Kiew oustscirts to the whole globe     
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JudgeDredd on February 26, 2022, 05:34:07 AM
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on February 25, 2022, 10:45:51 PM
I can't wait for reboots of shitty week-long miniseries like Amerika, Threads, and The Day After.


Also, I've now seen the same clip from Arma III posted as "totz realz war footage bruh!" by idiots on social media at least half a dozen times.  People are dumb....but now I wanna play Arma.


https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/arma-game-clip-ukraine/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/arma-game-clip-ukraine/)
I watched that and just kept thinking "Someone release the computer from it's duties, get on that gun and lead the damn target!"
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Toonces on February 26, 2022, 07:25:19 AM
I spent the night arguing with my conservative brother and getting drunk.  Heh.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 08:21:59 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 12:08:47 AM
from what Ive gathered the fighting in Kiev tonight was airborne troops, possibly from the southern airport, making a dash to the leadership.

  The US offered to evacuate President Zelensky from Kyiv, but he refused saying, "I need ammunition, not a ride."

   I don't know how much longer Zelensky can survive with the Russians trying (apparently) to kill him from all sides.  It's like the Russians have thier own wierd game:
kill Zelensky.  But it doesn't count if they hit him with bomb or missile.  Apparently he has to be personally shot by somebody with goggles on at close range.

   I agree that we need to get some of our own people with special goggles in there.  They can claim to be trying to save Zelensky or just give him some ammo.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: steve58 on February 26, 2022, 09:09:44 AM
Kazakstan denies Russia's requests for troops (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/russia-ukraine-live-updates-n1289976/ncrd1289985#liveBlogCards).
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Sir Slash on February 26, 2022, 09:27:43 AM
Wow!  :wow:  I guess we know who'll be next don't we? I've heard a number of reports that the Russians are not capable of fighting at night. Can anyone confirm their army's more of a 9 to 5 force or is this just incorrect? And if it is true, why in all the assistance we sent them, didn't we send ANY Night-Fighting equipment? Opinions?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Dammit Carl! on February 26, 2022, 09:32:32 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 26, 2022, 09:27:43 AM
Wow!  :wow:  I guess we know who'll be next don't we? I've heard a number of reports that the Russians are not capable of fighting at night. Can anyone confirm their army's more of a 9 to 5 force or is this just incorrect? And if it is true, why in all the assistance we sent them, didn't we send ANY Night-Fighting equipment? Opinions?

Perhaps it wasn't thought of - silly seeming answer, I know, but when packing up crates of Cool Shit to send downrange, old fashioned NVGs (or FLIR, or any number of night fighting apparatus) weren't thought of as anyone can get a good deal of things like that over the counter nowadays, so guess that whomever was putting together the packages was like, "eh, they got those things already, I bet."

Dunno.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 10:09:45 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 26, 2022, 09:27:43 AM
Wow!  :wow:  I guess we know who'll be next don't we? I've heard a number of reports that the Russians are not capable of fighting at night. Can anyone confirm their army's more of a 9 to 5 force or is this just incorrect? And if it is true, why in all the assistance we sent them, didn't we send ANY Night-Fighting equipment? Opinions?

  I do recall reading that the US had not only supplied night-fighting gear, but was actively training Ukrainians in the Ukraine up to the very beginning of signals that the Russians were going to attack.
So at least some Ukrainian units might be relatively proficient at some aspects of night fighting.  You should also remember the Ukrainians are on their local terrain and possibly less encumbered with all the
weird stuff that the Russians can barely remember to remove when CNN starts filming them.  So the Russians seem to be wandering everywhere with everything they might ever need (since well...what exaclty are they supposed to be doing anyway?  Just killing Zelensky?  Looking for Nazis?  What?  What?  well you might need this or this for that or that, right?  Better remember to pick it up or well where exactly
is that thing?  Can you find it in the dark?  Aren't we waiting for Chechens or Khazaks to do this dirty work?).

  And finally, the Russians say:

"But in essence, as the Ukrainian side refused negotiations, the Russian military operation resumed today in accordance with the plan."
 


  And that plan would be?  What?  Kill Zelensky, obviously and then stop, declare victory and then bring in some pathetic ethnic group nobody has ever heard of to look for NAzis for the next
century.  It's a plan.  I'm sure its working already since failure and success look precisely identical when you invade a place with a plan to kill a comedian and look for some people that aren't even
there.

  Or as a retired Russian diplomat in Moscow emailed me: "Tell me how this war ends? Unfortunately, there is no one and nowhere to ask."

  I have a plan, for the low-low price of just a couple of trillion USD, payable to my bank right about now, I will personally call Zelensky's agent and get him a new show on Netfix.
No need to kill him.  Just get him a new show on Netflix.  Then the Russians can
go home and some people with conical (yes "conical") woolly hats and special goggles can wander the world looking for Nazis.
The real problem is what on earth can I do with trillions of dollars.  I guess I'll start  game company or two.

But:
The Kremlin said Ukraine had rejected talks. Ukraine has not confirmed rejecting talks, nor is it clear that Russian forces did halt their advance on Friday.

  Okay, so...hmmm.  Was this non-event part of pathetic plan A or pathetic plan B?  Where is that depised ethnic group with the hats and goggles when you need them?

Ukrainian soldiers barricade roads to protect region around Mariupol

  The Russians still don't have Mariupol?  Oh, wait, that's a place that there might be some point in capturing so...wander off and try to kill that comedian.  We'll let a despised ethnic group look for
Nazis here some time or other, right?  That's a plan at least.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 26, 2022, 10:28:24 AM
Nicely done, Kazakhstan. Similar to the Ukrainians at Snake Island yesterday, perhaps a little less forceful.

(https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/MCDBORA_FE025-H-2021.jpg)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 10:42:08 AM
That is good news from Kazakhstan but may be due to the recent unrest and not outright defiance of Putin.

Austin Bay at Strategy Page posts his opinion on Putin's strategic objective-RUBiK
https://strategypage.com/on_point/2022022391845.aspx 

QuoteWhat's Putin's strategic goal? We've known for quite some time. Putin is assembling the RUBK -- "Rubik" as in the puzzle Rubik's Cube.

I'll quote from a column I wrote in November 2004. At some point a Russian leader would emerge who would try "to return to super-power status..." and restore key elements of the Soviet Union's empire. This leader would attempt "to link the core empire strength: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan (RUBK)...

"Russia, plus Ukraine, plus Belarus, plus Kazakhstan is a geo-strategic formula for a global power re-born."

One last quote: "In 2004, the Kremlin of President Vladimir Putin still sees the economic benefits of a RUBK federation. He also sees it as a way to bring ethnic Russians back inside the borders of Mother Russia."

Putin denies he seeks to recreate the Soviet Union. He lies.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 11:05:42 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 10:42:08 AM
That is good news from Kazakhstan but may be due to the recent unrest and not outright defiance of Putin.


  So theoretically nation X or Y could say "We're having some unrest and we need to join NATO."  Or Turkey could say, "We're having some unrest, we need to exclude Russian ships from the straits."
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 11:21:02 AM
fire up your CMANO!

https://news.usni.org/2022/02/24/russian-navy-masses-16-warships-near-syria
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 11:41:56 AM
While it won't stop Putin immediately, further sanctions would cause severe economic problems and internal turmoil in Russia.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/russia-ukraine-putin-nuclear-weapons-1.6364554
QuoteBill Browder, the British financier who has been the driving force behind the use of sanctions to punish corrupt regimes, said banning Russian banks from SWIFT would have a more profound impact than sanctioning Putin directly.

"It would knock them back to the Dark Ages economically, and it would be such a powerful and important reaction," he said. "This would be the financial equivalent of what he's done militarily."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/swift-sanctions-russia-banking-ukraine-1.6365146
QuoteMaria Shagina, an international sanctions expert based in Helsinki, wrote last year in an article for the Carnegie Moscow Center that the impact of banning Russia from SWIFT could be as devastating as it was for Iran, which was denied access to the system in 2012 over its nuclear program.

"Russia is heavily reliant on SWIFT due to its ... exports of hydrocarbons denominated in U.S. dollars. The cutoff would terminate all international transactions, trigger currency volatility, and cause massive capital outflows," she wrote.

Vacroux said that because Russia's federal budget is so highly dependent on taxes generated from the export of raw materials like oil and gas, it would make it difficult to conduct sales and then get the money needed for the country's budget.
There are arguments against blocking Russia from SWIFT and economic difficulties for Western countries.
Quote"I think there's excessive attention on SWIFT relative to its impact and insufficient attention on U.S. banking sanctions relative to their impact," said Chris Miller, an assistant professor of international history at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, and co-director of the Massachusetts school's Russia and Eurasia Program.

Miller said threatening to cut off major Russian banks from the U.S. financial system would certainly have more bite.

"It's a communications platform, not a financial payments system," Adam Smith, an international lawyer who focuses on international trade and worked in the Obama administration, told CBS News. "If you remove Russia from SWIFT, you're removing them from a key artery of finance, but they can use pre-SWIFT tools like telephone, telex or email to engage in bank-to-bank transactions."
QuoteThe United States and Germany would stand to lose the most if Russia were disconnected from SWIFT, because banks in those two countries most frequently use SWIFT to communicate with Russian banks, Shagina, the international sanctions expert, wrote in the Carnegie Moscow Center article.

For Germany and Italy, it's what SWIFT is used to pay for that would pose problems if Russia is cut out.

"Both Germany and Italy are very heavily dependent on imported gas from Russia. So comprehensive sanctions against Russian banks or a blanket exclusion of the entire Russian financial system from SWIFT would mean that they couldn't pay their gas bills, " said Adam Tooze, a history professor at Columbia University in New York and director of the European Institute.

Zachariadis said it's not just Russia that would suffer by being cut out of SWIFT.

"But also all the other countries that transact with Russia, including a lot of the EU countries and other countries around the world who get a lot of their energy resources from Russia as well, and other businesses that transact with Russian organizations."

From Strategy Page, when Europe cuts off its energy imports Russia will have major economic problems with income.  https://strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20220225.aspx
QuoteRussia is now in damage-control mode because Western trading partners are more united and willing to impose more economic sanctions than expected. The Belarus and Ukraine pipelines will continue to supply natural gas to Europe as well as Belarus and Ukraine. If Russia does manage to occupy all of Ukraine that could see an end to all natural gas exports to Europe. Oil and natural gas account for 60 percent of Russian exports and nearly half the government budget. Europe has been a major customer, obtaining 40 percent of its heating fuel from Russia. Even before 2014, growing dependence on Russian natural gas was seen as risky. Germany insisted the Russian were dependable and rational. Germany began having second thoughts after 2014, now agrees with the Russia critics and is ending all trade with Russia because of the invasion.
As energy is in high demand in Europe for winter heating currently and Germany has denuclearized its energy sources as well as the US and Canada greatly limiting oil production this sanction is at least a few weeks away. 
It will take time for Russia be able to increase its volume of energy exports to friendly countries and time to set up alternative banking arrangements.  With loss of life, and maiming of soldiers, combined with a decline in living standards for ordinary Russians, Putin will have significant domestic problems.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 11:48:50 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 11:21:02 AM
fire up your CMANO!

https://news.usni.org/2022/02/24/russian-navy-masses-16-warships-near-syria

More threatening behaviour.  Strategypage states how the Israelis deal with this:  https://strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20220222.aspx 
QuoteIsrael believes the Russians respect power and exploit weakness. Israel points to how they and Russia have become more open about their cooperation in Syria, and elsewhere in the region...
Russia is supposed to be protecting Syria from rebels and foreign interference. Because of Israeli military superiority and willingness to humiliate Russia if they try to stop Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria, the Russians talk but do not act. Russia has another vulnerability when it comes to Israel and that is continued access to Israeli technology. Israel has halted some of that cooperation in the past when Russia caused problems for Israel. The Israelis believe Russia is a bully that makes threats they cannot follow through on. Russia has learned that Israel does not back down from threats,

Just out of curiousity, what are the other fleets up to?  Especially the one currently floating outside of Irish waters?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 26, 2022, 12:09:45 PM
^Very interesting. I don't know anything about relations between Israel and Russia.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 26, 2022, 12:11:37 PM
I am guessing the Javelin Manufacturing plant is putting on a third shift right about now
Con
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 12:13:47 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 11:05:42 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 10:42:08 AM
That is good news from Kazakhstan but may be due to the recent unrest and not outright defiance of Putin.


  So theoretically nation X or Y could say "We're having some unrest and we need to join NATO."  Or Turkey could say, "We're having some unrest, we need to exclude Russian ships from the straits."

No, nation X can't state that they will join NATO with unrest.  NATO will not accept countries with internal conflict; Putin has exploited this several times by stirring up unrest in the Donbas and South Assetia/Abkhazia.  Kazakhistan is firmly in Putin's corner though after Russia supplied troops to keep the president in power.  https://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/dyer-deadly-kazakh-chaos-looks-like-a-coup-to-me  This author has however, lost my respect, amongst others, after continually stating that Russia would not invade Ukraine and was bluffing.

As for Turkey, shutting down the Dardanelles to all Russian traffic, which they can easily do, they say they won't but I hope they change their minds.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 12:22:26 PM
Quote from: Con on February 26, 2022, 12:11:37 PM
I am guessing the Javelin Manufacturing plant is putting on a third shift right about now
Con

Raytheon stock was up 4% at yesterdays close.  8)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 12:36:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 26, 2022, 12:09:45 PM
^Very interesting. I don't know anything about relations between Israel and Russia.
Haaretz and Jerusalem Post have good articles about the cultural connections as well as the antagonisms.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 12:47:02 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMf0Bk6XsAAizmh?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: steve58 on February 26, 2022, 12:55:55 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 12:13:47 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 11:05:42 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 10:42:08 AM
That is good news from Kazakhstan but may be due to the recent unrest and not outright defiance of Putin.


  So theoretically nation X or Y could say "We're having some unrest and we need to join NATO."  Or Turkey could say, "We're having some unrest, we need to exclude Russian ships from the straits."

No, nation X can't state that they will join NATO with unrest.  NATO will not accept countries with internal conflict; Putin has exploited this several times by stirring up unrest in the Donbas and South Assetia/Abkhazia.  Kazakhistan is firmly in Putin's corner though after Russia supplied troops to keep the president in power.  https://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/dyer-deadly-kazakh-chaos-looks-like-a-coup-to-me  This author has however, lost my respect, amongst others, after continually stating that Russia would not invade Ukraine and was bluffing.

As for Turkey, shutting down the Dardanelles to all Russian traffic, which they can easily do, they say they won't but I hope they change their minds.

Closing the Dardanelles might help, but it sounds like Russia could still bring in some assets.

Quote
Even if Turkey decided to invoke the relevant clauses in the Montreux treaty, the international instrument that governs ship traffic through the Straits, Russian warships would have the right to pass the Bosphorus once, on a final one-way voyage back to their Black Sea bases, Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters on Friday.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/insight/turkey-set-to-reject-ukraine-s-call-to-close-bosphorus-to-russia/2-1-1174883
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 01:00:04 PM
new to the twitter bs so trying to link a video

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497559125416361987

ok, close enough.  the fact that russian crews are already improvising stand off turret protection is very telling to me.
more NLAWs and Javs!
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 01:13:33 PM
the sunroofs predate the invasion but the sandbags on top of them are new, so they may not work as well the Russians hoped.

Also more Stingers, more Groms

As for a one way sail for Russian warships.  BON VOYAGEE!  Can't tell from the article if this limit would apply to Russian commercial interests, especially if flying flag of convenience.  Now that would be painful.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 01:18:04 PM
would sandbags be enough of a standoff distance to negate a tandem warhead?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MikeGER on February 26, 2022, 01:21:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 01:00:04 PM
new to the twitter bs so trying to link a video

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497559125416361987

ok, close enough.  the fact that russian crews are already improvising stand off turret protection is very telling to me.
more NLAWs and Javs!

after pussyfooting around for a few days the left-green German govornment donates 500 Stinger and 1000 (probaboy) Fausts to the Ukraine,  finally  :clap:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 26, 2022, 01:21:41 PM
How are all these weapons getting into Ukraine now? Smuggled in on the ground in trucks, etc.?

Would the Russians be insane enough to try to stop the flow?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 01:26:05 PM
theyll just be driven over the border.  no need to smuggle a damn thing.
today there are JSTAR and AWACS orbiting and watching everything.  the same 3 tanker shuffle continues and I really doubt theyre giving fuel to Emirates 747s.  I almost want putin to make a go at an EU supply convoy.  >:D
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 26, 2022, 01:32:42 PM
To ensure the population gets the 'right' information :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60533083

Russia has blocked Twitter and threatened to do the same with Facebook after a clash over "censorship".

Russia's communications regulator Roskomnadzor accused Facebook of violating "the rights and freedoms of Russian citizens".
The actions follow Russia's attack on Ukraine with many videos and images of the invasion going viral on social media.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 01:38:40 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 11:05:42 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 10:42:08 AM
That is good news from Kazakhstan but may be due to the recent unrest and not outright defiance of Putin.


  So theoretically nation X or Y could say "We're having some unrest and we need to join NATO."  Or Turkey could say, "We're having some unrest, we need to exclude Russian ships from the straits."

   Spain got into NATO despite the fact that in the early 1980s they still figured they needed 250,000 troops to make sure Madrid didn't do anything...like unrest.

Meanwhile:

Russian defense ministry orders troops to resume offensive "in all directions," according to statement

  This must be pathetic plan 4b "wander in all directions"  They couldn't even take Cherniyiv (?) on the eastern approach to Kiev.  I think this is going to leave the Russians with only the
"Kill everybody" plan with big thermobaric bombs, at which point NATO might just decide they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by stopping the Russians by opening attacks on all the
stuff the Russians have piled up in Belarus...miles and miles of helicopters lined up etc. etc. sinking the Russian navy etc. etc.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 02:04:54 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 01:18:04 PM
would sandbags be enough of a standoff distance to negate a tandem warhead?
Don't know about the sandbags, but they're definitely not RHA.  The metal structure on the turret is meant to detonate the 1st charge one metre from the turret, so it burns out.  While the 2nd charge hits ERA.  It's a dollar store APS and hopefully isn't working.  Discussed at about 1:20 in video.


Sorry sunvisors not sunroofs.  Maybe the commander can be given a brolly.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 26, 2022, 02:21:09 PM
CNN footage shows a TOS-1 (or TOS-1A),  able to shoot thermobaric rockets,  being deployed near the Ukrainian border : https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1497519335350452231

Horrific weapon in action
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 02:23:39 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 26, 2022, 01:21:41 PM
How are all these weapons getting into Ukraine now? Smuggled in on the ground in trucks, etc.?

Would the Russians be insane enough to try to stop the flow?

They'll whine and threaten but to stop the flow and the losses they'll have to eventually move on Lviv and the western parts of Ukraine.   Beyond that time, they will have to be smuggled in, depending on political will.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: bobarossa on February 26, 2022, 02:26:31 PM
Retired General Wesley Clark just stated on TV that those 1000 antitank missiles are a great start but due to delivery, deployment and usage problems will probably only result in 20 to 40 tank losses.  Way less than I was expecting. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 26, 2022, 02:29:42 PM
Russian Casualties as of today.

    14 aircraft (13 attackers (SU-25 and other CAS) and 1 IL-76)
    8 helicopters
    102 tanks
    536 armored cars and APCs
    15 artillery pieces
    1 Buk air defense system
    3500 soldiers (dead, captured, wounded)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 02:34:16 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 26, 2022, 02:21:09 PM
CNN footage shows a TOS-1 (or TOS-1A),  able to shoot thermobaric rockets,  being deployed near the Ukrainian border : https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1497519335350452231

Horrific weapon in action
General Lewis-Mackenzie who commanded the UN forces in Sarajevo, wrote that with tv coverage the populations of countries were becoming inured to war and suffering, and that only with the more and more graphic coverage were they moved to any action.  If the Russians are stupid enough to use this against a civilian population, the don't interfere demographics in countries will drop dramatically.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 26, 2022, 03:05:26 PM
Are Ukrainian casualty numbers available anywhere?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 03:15:48 PM
sky news last reported about 200 civilians killed so far.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 03:18:43 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 26, 2022, 03:05:26 PM
Are Ukrainian casualty numbers available anywhere?
They'll be unreliable, especially with the Russians white washing them in the areas they control.  Historically, the Soviets hid the dead from the Holodmor in Ukraine, and hid the dead from the Katyn massacre in Poland for decades.  My friends great uncle, a medical officer, was murdered in Katyn by the NKVD.
The BBC reports that there are kill lists planned throughout Ukraine.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60472889
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Con on February 26, 2022, 04:09:40 PM
This look bonkers - Ukrainian civilians checking their govt issued AK47s prior to defending Kyiv tonight - the old lady looks the most badass out of all of them.

(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/02/26/19/54693595-10554691-image-a-15_1645904410323.jpg)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 26, 2022, 04:47:37 PM
My own daughters just told me the story about the Ghost of Kiev...now I know it's for real.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 26, 2022, 05:18:20 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 26, 2022, 02:29:42 PM
Russian Casualties as of today.

    14 aircraft (13 attackers (SU-25 and other CAS) and 1 IL-76)
    8 helicopters
    102 tanks
    536 armored cars and APCs
    15 artillery pieces
    1 Buk air defense system
    3500 soldiers (dead, captured, wounded)
JH, where did the stats come from? I have not been able to find anything. Indeed, Grogheads seems to be one of the best info collation points.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ComradeP on February 26, 2022, 05:42:13 PM
I saw some of those stats earlier today in Ukrainian MOD estimates, but as was mentioned before: there's a lot of FOW as to the actual losses.

What surprises me is that, even though there are numerous videos of fighting and live streams for several Ukrainian cities, it's very difficult to piece together where the frontlines are.

You would expect that, as most people have smartphones with internet access, even with rumours and false information the overall picture should be fairly clear. Trying to figure out where troops are fighting currently is not aided by the habit of media to mention the nearest city whilst fighting might occur 20 miles away.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 26, 2022, 06:17:00 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 26, 2022, 05:42:13 PM

What surprises me is that, even though there are numerous videos of fighting and live streams for several Ukrainian cities, it's very difficult to piece together where the frontlines are.


A few maps of the front came out today.

BBC has a solid one...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 06:19:10 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 26, 2022, 05:42:13 PM
I saw some of those stats earlier today in Ukrainian MOD estimates, but as was mentioned before: there's a lot of FOW as to the actual losses.

What surprises me is that, even though there are numerous videos of fighting and live streams for several Ukrainian cities, it's very difficult to piece together where the frontlines are.

You would expect that, as most people have smartphones with internet access, even with rumours and false information the overall picture should be fairly clear. Trying to figure out where troops are fighting currently is not aided by the habit of media to mention the nearest city whilst fighting might occur 20 miles away.

  Well, the news media has some puzzling ideas about how to represent this war.  Lots of "human interest" ...counting up each casualty (which is going to be rough when they hit the 10s of thousands as they probably will by tomorrow or the next day).  The first thermobaric bomb might have just gone off SW of Kiev...that would be blowing something out of the way to finally isolate Kiev from the south.  Focusing on one or two random missile hits...not very helpful.

   Then the fact that the Russians don't quite exactly seem to have a coherent plan and are driving around where ever they can and bombarding where they can't advance and not taking any airfields intact and taking Chernobl (seems pointless) and taking cities for no reason (Sumy, Kherson?) is just even more confusing.  It's like confusion reigns from all sides.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 26, 2022, 06:20:56 PM
ISW current map...

Image is too large to imbed...

https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTFeb25%2C2022_0.png
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 06:24:33 PM
Quote from: Con on February 26, 2022, 04:09:40 PM
This look bonkers - Ukrainian civilians checking their govt issued AK47s prior to defending Kyiv tonight - the old lady looks the most badass out of all of them.

The older men will likely be veterans of Afghanistan.  Russia's population was still recovering from the losses of the Second World War, and as another historic unfairness, mostly Ukrainians were sent.  As for the women, they know a lot; my friend's mom can field strip a Kalashnikov.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 26, 2022, 06:44:01 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 06:19:10 PM
   Then the fact that the Russians don't quite exactly seem to have a coherent plan and are driving around where ever they can and bombarding where they can't advance and not taking any airfields intact and taking Chernobl (seems pointless) and taking cities for no reason (Sumy, Kherson?) is just even more confusing.  It's like confusion reigns from all sides.

It seems like they have a plan, they're just not executing it well. 

The invasion has for Axes of advance. 

The primary thrust came from Belarus and has the objective of taking Kyiv and advancing down the Dniepr.  They seem to have tried to support this thrust with airborne assaults that tried to quickly encircle the capital.  The airborne strikes failed, and the armor advance was slowed in the Oblon district.  This thrust took Chernobyl along its axis. 

It looks like they made a mistake here by using a lot of Eastern Military District troops to guard the flanks of the advance and there are reports they're suffering pretty heavy casualties. 

Second Thrust west of Kharkiv is a wide front that looks to be driving down to take the coast of the Dnieper and link with the Belarus front.  It looks like it's also made limited headway. 

Third and fourth are coming from the Donbas and Crimea and seem to have to goal of taking Mariupol and Odesa and cutting off the Black Sea.   No doubt by now the Russians expected both of those cities to have fallen or cut off but, again, they're holding. 

So, it seems they have a coherent strategy that is likely hand in hand with their war goals, that is to seize the coast and everything east of the Dneiper and take Kyiv. 

The reasons for poor execition abound but the word hubris is being used liberally.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Atilla60 on February 26, 2022, 06:44:57 PM
What's Putin's end game?

Here's some theories.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 07:50:25 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 26, 2022, 06:44:01 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 06:19:10 PM
   Then the fact that the Russians don't quite exactly seem to have a coherent plan and are driving around where ever they can and bombarding where they can't advance and not taking any airfields intact and taking Chernobl (seems pointless) and taking cities for no reason (Sumy, Kherson?) is just even more confusing.  It's like confusion reigns from all sides.

It seems like they have a plan, they're just not executing it well. 

The invasion has for Axes of advance. 

The primary thrust came from Belarus and has the objective of taking Kyiv and advancing down the Dniepr.  They seem to have tried to support this thrust with airborne assaults that tried to quickly encircle the capital.  The airborne strikes failed, and the armor advance was slowed in the Oblon district.  This thrust took Chernobyl along its axis. 

It looks like they made a mistake here by using a lot of Eastern Military District troops to guard the flanks of the advance and there are reports they're suffering pretty heavy casualties. 

Second Thrust west of Kharkiv is a wide front that looks to be driving down to take the coast of the Dnieper and link with the Belarus front.  It looks like it's also made limited headway. 

Third and fourth are coming from the Donbas and Crimea and seem to have to goal of taking Mariupol and Odesa and cutting off the Black Sea.   No doubt by now the Russians expected both of those cities to have fallen or cut off but, again, they're holding. 

So, it seems they have a coherent strategy that is likely hand in hand with their war goals, that is to seize the coast and everything east of the Dneiper and take Kyiv. 

The reasons for poor execition abound but the word hubris is being used liberally.

  Well, Mariupol is holding and supposedly the Russians have lost a lot of tanks there even after probably the most massive artillery barrages in the war so far.  Has Odessa even been attacked?
The Offensive (or thrust?) around Kharkov seems either kind of tentative or poorly supported or to suffer from "hubris" anyway it doesn't seem to have gotten anywhere.  I'm not sure what is happening to rht Thrust out of the Crimea, but it doesn't seem to be developing.  That leaves the attack on Kiev as the only drive that's going anywhere at the moment that we have any information about and it looks like the Russians will have Kiev isolated pretty soon.  And then what?  The war just goes on for however long it takes to get Odessa, Maripol and Kharkov?  Then it stops?  And then the remainder of the Ukraine joins NATO?
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: al_infierno on February 26, 2022, 07:58:11 PM
Civilians with rifles during a drill:

(https://i.imgur.com/ssNNM1P.jpg)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 26, 2022, 08:06:48 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 07:50:25 PM

  Well, Mariupol is holding and supposedly the Russians have lost a lot of tanks there even after probably the most massive artillery barrages in the war so far.  Has Odessa even been attacked?
The Offensive (or thrust?) around Kharkov seems either kind of tentative or poorly supported or to suffer from "hubris" anyway it doesn't seem to have gotten anywhere.  I'm not sure what is happening to rht Thrust out of the Crimea, but it doesn't seem to be developing.  That leaves the attack on Kiev as the only drive that's going anywhere at the moment that we have any information about and it looks like the Russians will have Kiev isolated pretty soon.  And then what?  The war just goes on for however long it takes to get Odessa, Maripol and Kharkov?  Then it stops?  And then the remainder of the Ukraine joins NATO?

You get the whole no plan surviving contact with the enemy thing.   I'm sure this looked great on paper with the idea that the Ukrainians would offer limited to no resistance.

After they're done, no one has a clue what the plan is. 

If they have the country all the way to the Dneiper, whatever's left in the west won't really be economically viable as a sustainable nation.  I'm sure they would expect it to collapse and have to rely on Russia for its survival long term. 

As to the east?  They could set up a rump state, or try to occupy it.  Or both.  None of those scenarios work out well in the long term. 

The end result is that this plan was far more risk than reward, and if it doesn't go just perfectly it could be a quagmire that drags Russia down with it.  That seems to be the analysis of more than a few of what the end will be. 

Only seen one article, in Newsweek of all places, this morning that said Putin will come out on top on this.  It smelled of a "Hot take" kind of contrarian article to me. 

So...not saying the plan is smart, but they seem to have one. 

Custer had a plan too.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 26, 2022, 08:25:33 PM
I hadn't thought of that orange glow outside Kiev being their first thermobaric drop. But if it isn't, then it's a strike against one of the major civilian oilfields nearby in that direction.

Oh, wait, did Vlad say he wouldn't be attacking civilians or their infrastructure directly? Opps!  ::)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 08:26:55 PM
(https://scontent.fmia1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t31.18172-8/23669200_1434904993275249_957783260976661258_o.png?stp=dst-png_p526x296&_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=_Aua-8gwEicAX91K-kK&_nc_ht=scontent.fmia1-1.fna&oh=00_AT_fi9fxUbIx19hcwtgnAXMy7r3ffy91oEUiDVEfI5oEYw&oe=623ECF73)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 26, 2022, 08:28:02 PM
Meanwhile, on a completely trivial geeky question: was that T-72, in the thumbnail for that video several posts upthread, carrying a spare cannon barrel crossways on the back of its turret?!  ???

Clearly, whatever it is (big undeployed mortar??), I haven't kept up with Soviet-ish land vehicles in a long time.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 26, 2022, 08:32:14 PM
Quote from: Atilla60 on February 26, 2022, 06:44:57 PM
What's Putin's end game?

Here's some theories.


That was a pretty good video!

The finale with the endgame theories reminded me again of (what I was dubbing) the Dumbledore Gambit: have a bunch of plots going at once, to confuse your enemies, and to create opportunities for completing some of those plots successfully.

Ref also the exchange between MengJiao and SirAndrew!  8)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 26, 2022, 08:40:57 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on February 26, 2022, 07:58:11 PM
Civilians with rifles during a drill:

(https://i.imgur.com/ssNNM1P.jpg)

The girls look the most ferocious.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 08:45:09 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 26, 2022, 08:28:02 PM
Meanwhile, on a completely trivial geeky question: was that T-72, in the thumbnail for that video several posts upthread, carrying a spare cannon barrel crossways on the back of its turret?!  ???

Clearly, whatever it is (big undeployed mortar??), I haven't kept up with Soviet-ish land vehicles in a long time.
It's a snorkel for fording waterways.  T-72s can ford to 5m depth for 1000m. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 08:45:46 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 26, 2022, 08:28:02 PM
Meanwhile, on a completely trivial geeky question: was that T-72, in the thumbnail for that video several posts upthread, carrying a spare cannon barrel crossways on the back of its turret?!  ???

Clearly, whatever it is (big undeployed mortar??), I haven't kept up with Soviet-ish land vehicles in a long time.

snorkel for crossing rivers.  good luck with the water seals...
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 26, 2022, 08:46:40 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 26, 2022, 08:28:02 PM
Meanwhile, on a completely trivial geeky question: was that T-72, in the thumbnail for that video several posts upthread, carrying a spare cannon barrel crossways on the back of its turret?!  ???

Clearly, whatever it is (big undeployed mortar??), I haven't kept up with Soviet-ish land vehicles in a long time.

Most likely a snorkel tube.

The document link below has some good pictures and great discussion about it.

https://mcoe.azurewebsites.us/Armor/eARMOR/content/issues/2019/Fall/4Grau19.pdf (https://mcoe.azurewebsites.us/Armor/eARMOR/content/issues/2019/Fall/4Grau19.pdf)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 09:07:45 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 26, 2022, 08:25:33 PM
I hadn't thought of that orange glow outside Kiev being their first thermobaric drop. But if it isn't, then it's a strike against one of the major civilian oilfields nearby in that direction.

Oh, wait, did Vlad say he wouldn't be attacking civilians or their infrastructure directly? Opps!  ::)

   I thought it was near a position where the Ukrainians might have dug in after they blocked an earlier thrust...So hit the entrenchments with a big thermobaric bomb and then push through and i think that pretty much cuts off Kiev.  On the other hand maybe its just some burning fuel storage tanks.

   I did see a pretty marvelous video (its on the NY times site) where a guy with a NLAW AT weapon near Kiev basically walks up a road completely packed with around a dozen burning armored vehicles cursing all the way about how much he hates the Russians and how they are all going to die.  The note on the video says "two burning armored vehicles"...but it looks like a lot more stretching in two directions. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 09:10:05 PM
The women should put their hair in tight braids and remove any makeup that highlights their faces like their lipstick if they can't cover their skin.  At least they're all wearing dark clothing but buttons, zips can be blackened to reduce shine.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 09:16:49 PM
russia fucked with the wrong country.  :knuppel2:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 26, 2022, 09:34:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2022, 09:16:49 PM
russia fucked with the wrong country.  :knuppel2:

   Well, its kind of big, moderately urbanized, big river barriers.  The ports and airports with the industrial landscapes around them seem to have worked like traps for tanks and helicopters.
What else? well it does have an army and lots of reservists and more operational T-80s than Russia does (since T-80s were built in the Ukraine).  The US army was training the Ukrainian army
right up to the final signal of the attack and arms are flowing in.  The urban areas have that paradoxical "fast approach" but lots of cover for defenders problem.  The defenders know a lot about
the attackers and there has been low-scale conflict since 2014...plus no surprise.  the Russians built up for quite a while.  I think also the fact that there were no forward defenses on the main axes
of the thrusts is significant.  The Ukrainians did not get trapped in forward positions on main thrust lines and they seem to have chopped up Russian columns as they went deeper.  Plus the Ukrainians
seem to have some kind of mobile defense going despite the apparent emphasis on defending Kiev and Kharkov.  the urban areas seem to act something like traps in that they focus the Russian
thrusts while the mobile Ukrainians (I postulate) hit them in detail and almost at will.  So the Ukrainians are not just brave, but have some good counter-moves up their sleeves I think.  Pure speculation of course.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 26, 2022, 10:01:44 PM
I definitely think Russia f'd with the wrong country. Pictures of barely trained civilians don't make me feel good, though. This is clearly not going how the Russians want it to but will it matter if 200,000 Russian troops just pour into Ukraine? The fighting could conceivably go on for years that way. Really have to wonder what Putin's endgame is.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 26, 2022, 10:32:45 PM
This will be very painful for the Russian economy:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60542433
QuoteThe EU, US and their allies have agreed to cut off a number of Russian banks from the main international payment system, Swift.

The assets of Russia's central bank will also be frozen, limiting Russia's ability to access its overseas reserves.
QuoteExcluding certain Russian banks from the Swift system used for trillions of dollars-worth of transactions will hit the economy hard - and in the words of the White House, it will make the country rely on "the telephone or a fax machine" to make payments.

This is only a slight exaggeration. There are workarounds to Swift but none which are as efficient.

Only one country has been cut out in the past - Iran - which resulted in it losing 30% of its foreign trade.


On the battlefield, the Ukranians have been underestimated by the Russians.  However, we would do them a disservice by not acknowledging that the Russians are not spent yet and have not committed all of their forces.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60539113

QuoteEd Arnold, an expert on European security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), describes Russia's initial assault as "underwhelming" and "slower than expected".

He points to a number of reasons. Military doctrine for an invasion, he says, is usually "to go for overwhelming force". While Russia had massed between 150,000 and 190,000 troops on the border, so far it hasn't used them all.

That might be because Russia will need them for later phases of the invasion. It's normal for militaries to keep reserves as they adjust plans.

Western officials estimate that the initial assault involved about half of the forces it's massed. The initial invasion has been further complicated by attacks from multiple directions.

Russia also hasn't used its artillery and air strikes as intensively as expected. But Mr Arnold adds: "A key point is that they are facing very stiff Ukrainian resistance, which I don't think they expected."

Holding back on their air, rocket and cruise missile attacks and hoping for a fait accompli by overwhelming the government in Kiev on the first night may have been hoped to limit economic sanctions.  So now that this has not occured, Putin will point fingers at the West, most especially the US and Poland for supplying weaponry that stopped his armies.  He will probably demand that more troops be called up and sent to take his obsession.  How this is answered will be up to his oligarchs but they have been made his accomplices in the televised 'kabuke' q&a.  Hopefully, Putin will not be able to survive politically.  Protests continue in Russia even if in silence and without banners. 

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 27, 2022, 01:02:35 AM
The Russian attack looks like a well thought out but incomplete staff exercise by folks with limited experience in actual field exercises, leading to a well organized, fizzled cluster-f---.. I also get the impression that the units used included lots of green troops brought in from all over which were not part of larger formations (corps, armies) that had exercised together before in the field. Does anyone know? I suspect that the Russkies need a a bit of a learning, evaluation and shakedown period which will be rapidly followed by a Russian hammer hitting a Ukrainian nail. There may be a brief window during which the Ukranians can be resupplied with sufficient AT and AA weapons to make the Russians hurt really bad when they finally get their act together. The worst thing the Russians can do (casualty-wise)is to push the attack before they fire a bunch of people and reorganize. However, my reading of the situation is that politics and Putin are going to force them to attack prematurely, leading to a really impressive body count.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ComradeP on February 27, 2022, 04:34:33 AM
Many countries Europe depend heavily on natural gas from Russia, particularly in Eastern Europe but also Germany which gets about 55% of its natural gas from Russia. If Putin decides to cut the supply, it will hurt Russia but it will also really hurt in other European countries. Medvedev has also threatened with nationalization of US/EU assets. That will make some energy/oil companies nervous as well.

We're already paying for the war, more or less, as the price went from 0,10-0,30 (before taxes) euro's per cubic metre a few years ago to well over 1 euro. Russia has also gradually decreased deliveries, increasing prices. Suppliers in the US and Middle East have long term contracts with many Asian countries and LNG tankers mostly arrive when the price is high. Those can't compensate for reduced deliveries from Russia.

The Groningen gas field in the Netherlands, the largest natural gas field in Europe, is supplying only a small amount of what it previously supplied as natural gas extraction was decreased after public pressure due to earthquakes in the province. Increasing gas extraction would pretty much be political suicide for the recently formed government around PM Mark Rutte's fourth term.

Winter is nearly over and it didn't amount to much in Europe, but prolonged sanctions and associated reduced gas deliveries from Russia will probably make some countries back down on their support for sanctions as they need to fill up reserves for next winter. Once more, the EU is likely to show how divided it can be.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ComradeP on February 27, 2022, 05:48:58 AM
Enemy casualty figure update according to the Ukrainian MOD:

4300 Russian soldiers (dead/wounded/missing, unclear if it includes captured).
150 tanks.
700 AFV's and other vehicles.

Enemy casualty figure update from Russian MOD:

471 Ukrainian troops captured.
975 "military targets" have been destroyed since Thursday morning.
36 aircraft destroyed, of which 28 were destroyed on the ground.
7 helicopters.
11 drones.

As always, take every figure with a grain of salt.

-

In other news, President Lukashenko of Belarus has admitted that (cruise) missiles were fired at Ukraine from Belarussian territory.

Earlier today, Ukrainian officials reported one missile, launched by a "Tu-22", was intercepted and destroyed.

The Tu-22 is no longer in service, so this might refer to a Tu-22M.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 07:04:18 AM
and the EU has closed off its airspace to all russian airliners, some russian banks are now kicked out of Swift and Germany is going ahead with a $100 billion euro boost to its defense spending.

good job putin! you fucking moron.

go fuck yourself!
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 07:26:30 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMlJKlfX0AQajJt?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 08:05:33 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 26, 2022, 10:01:44 PM
Really have to wonder what Putin's endgame is.


   As implied in the discussions here (Solops! for example), he needs a new endgame since clearly plan A didn't work (whatever it was exactly) and he had no plan B.  I think plan A
was a quick grab of territory and killing Zelensky.  It was essentially a purely political plan: 1) forestall NATO 2) get troops into the Ukraine 3) get a friendly regime installed (as in Belarus, which
I guess is the model for what Putin wants) and presto!  No more problem.  But was there really a problem to begin with?  This is where Putin's Plan A began to fail as in way back in 2014.
If only part of the Ukraine could be "legitimately" seized in 2014, didn't that imply that the rest of the Ukraine was legitimate?  Hence the "insane" rhetoric -- Putin may be a little bit nuts, but
his real problem is having legitimized whatever he didn't seize in 2014.  In effect, he had created his own monster and the model for fixing that was Belarus, ie get a friendly regime led by a crony
not a comedian.
  So why the attack on all fronts?  Why not just kill Zelensky with a cruise missile or two?
  Because Putin figured the Ukrainian army would either not fight or just needed an excuse to surrender.  Unfortunately what this implied was that everyone could read Putin's mind in some really
precise way that his rhetoric obscured and that his misreading of the situation (Ukraine = Belarus) made difficult...or I should say, that his mistaking of the aim (Ukraine = Belarus)
for the present situation made hard to comprehend.
   This all goes back to the legitimacy of the regime in the Ukraine -- which Putin had legitimized in 2014 by stopping with the excuse of the breakaway whatevers.
    Note that Putin first recognized those as legitimate and then attacked the rest of the Ukraine.  In his mind (though not elsewhere) those were linked.
   I think all the guff about Putin's larger aims miss the point that all he wanted was a simple shift wherein Ukraine would be another Belarus.  Everything else is an attempt to
cover the fact that he legitimized the Ukraine himself in 2014.

   Back to the army.  The surrender of the Ukrainian army would legitimize his view of the Ukraine as an improved version of things in Belarus.

   Okay, back to Plan A: whatever the details, the army more or less goes along with turning the Ukraine into an improved Belarus.  Does this happen?  No.  This is the assumption that failed ie, the Ukrainian army started shooting back.  there was no "token" defense at the border.  The Ukrainians let the Russian columns enter and then destroyed them.  From that moment on, plan A was doomed and there
was no plan B at all.

    Now, of course, eventually I assume plan B would be to mount an actual war and destroy the Ukrainian army and no doubt a lot of other things and people in the Ukraine.  So far one of the
benefits of Plan A for the Ukraine is that since the Ukrainian army was supposed to go the way of the Belarusian army, there was no point in mounting a serious attack -- it would be enough to
seize some airports and kill Zelensky.  The Ukrainian Army would become more or less Belarusian and just a few thousand supporters of the regime would need to be located and murdered.

  Note also that plan A 2.0 features "talks" in Belarus.  Going to "talk" in Belarus would be equivalent to having the regime surrender and leave the army out of the loop.  Talking anywhere but
Belarus would legitimize the Ukrainian regime and cause plan A to finally go away...though plan B is likely to lead to a massive war, NATO intervention and maybe some nukes here and there.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 08:15:45 AM
one of his many mistakes was thinking 2022 russia was 1982 soviet union
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 08:17:51 AM
if some form of this bullshit had tried attacking into NATO proper in 1988.... ::)
Red Storm Rising then becomes a worst case scenario.  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 08:35:37 AM
reports that putin puts nuclear deterrence force on alert.....  are you fucking kidding me!
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 08:53:32 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 08:35:37 AM
reports that putin puts nuclear deterrence force on alert.....  are you fucking kidding me!

  Once we are in Putin's Plan B, casualties are going to be immense.  The Ukrainian army will be rolled over pretty fast, which will trigger some kind of NATO re-action that
Putin finds disturbing and World War III will be happening, probably in slow motion, but the endgame is likely feature some nukes since Russia isn't going to easily accept being
a fourth-class power and kicked out of the UN security council in favor of India.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:01:57 AM
great... so the world has to hope for some Clancyesque (sp) last minute internal coup?
fanfuckingtastic
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ComradeP on February 27, 2022, 09:03:31 AM
I don't think it will become "world war 3", as outside of Europe and NATO member states other countries have no ability or reason to intervene in any upcoming escalation.

The exception would be China, should it think it would be a good time to make a move on Taiwan.

However, a world war requires most of the countries in the world to be at war and fighting across the world and after decolonization that is an unlikely event.

-

It's curious that even though nuclear weapons have become more and more lethal with each generation, the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons waiting for someone to push the button doesn't cause alarm in the general public like it did during the Cold War. Putin might be the first to show just how naive that was.

-

The performance of the Russian army is surprisingly poor. Though I understand why you could point to logistics, they're still operating within 100-200 kilometres of the Russian border against an enemy with little to no means of interdicting movements in Russia. It's hard to tell if Russian vehicles running out of fuel are isolated incidents, perhaps caused by moving beyond the initial objectives, or mismanagement of logistics.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 27, 2022, 09:06:22 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 08:15:45 AM
one of his many mistakes was thinking 2022 russia was 1982 soviet union
+1
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 09:09:29 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:01:57 AM
great... so the world has to hope for some Clancyesque (sp) last minute internal coup?
fanfuckingtastic

  Well...maybe Belarus will provide some kind of answer soon.  There were independent talks between Belarus and Zelensky.  If Zelensky will play ball (to use the proper
US gangster slang) then this whole thing could be reduced to making sure Zelensky can act like a crony.  He is an actor and playing a crony is not a hard role...you just have
to be more of a "character actor"...AND Zelensky is sending a delegation to talk AT THE BORDER of Belarus.  Clearly he gets the message (as in Plan B might be the end of the
world so get your crony act together) and maybe he can play ball well enough to satisfy everybody (and leave NATO way out in the cold...not a high price to pay for anybody at this
point relative to the END OF THE WORLD).  That would be nice.  Putin just has to shift his priorities a tiny bit and accept the comedian as a crony.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:11:05 AM
^^^ dont see that happening
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:13:45 AM
the NATO E-3 is now hugging the border doing figure 8s.  up until now they were kept west of Warsaw.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 09:14:02 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 27, 2022, 09:03:31 AM
I don't think it will become "world war 3", as outside of Europe and NATO member states other countries have no ability or reason to intervene in any upcoming escalation.

The exception would be China, should it think it would be a good time to make a move on Taiwan.

However, a world war requires most of the countries in the world to be at war and fighting across the world and after decolonization that is an unlikely event.

-

It's curious that even though nuclear weapons have become more and more lethal with each generation, the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons waiting for someone to push the button doesn't cause alarm in the general public like it did during the Cold War. Putin might be the first to show just how naive that was.

-

The performance of the Russian army is surprisingly poor. Though I understand why you could point to logistics, they're still operating within 100-200 kilometres of the Russian border against an enemy with little to no means of interdicting movements in Russia. It's hard to tell if Russian vehicles running out of fuel are isolated incidents, perhaps caused by moving beyond the initial objectives, or mismanagement of logistics.

  I don't know.  The Russian army did what it was supposed to in order to set up a political situation where Zelensky learns to play ball and become a crony.  Putin might get exactly what I think he
really wanted -- a situation where the Ukraine is kind of like a large and improved Belarus.  Putin has kept all the totally murderous stuff off the board for now, and if Zelensky
can manage to seem like a good crony we may be out of the woods yet (to drift even farther into American slang).
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 27, 2022, 09:20:10 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 27, 2022, 09:03:31 AM
It's curious that even though nuclear weapons have become more and more lethal with each generation, the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons waiting for someone to push the button doesn't cause alarm in the general public like it did during the Cold War.

Very weird seeing Carnival (Mardi Gras) celebrations going on today.

Quote from: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 09:09:29 AM
Well...maybe Belarus will provide some kind of answer soon.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html

Belarusian special forces are loading onto airplanes in preparation for an air assault on Kyiv in what would be a widening of the conflict and a declaration of war on Ukraine by dictator Alexander Lukashenko, military sources have claimed.

Ukrainian intelligence has reportedly learned from within Belarus that 'special ops' troops have been spotted loading up planes for a major attack.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 09:20:16 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:11:05 AM
^^^ dont see that happening

   Well, it does seem unlikely if you read Putin as a complete nut, but he does look more composed if you look more at what he implies and less at what he says:
1) he legitimized those areas he set up in 2014 just before he attacked
2) implying that he would accept some Belarus-style solution for the rest of the Ukraine
3) he tossed in the Russian army just in case the Ukrainian army wanted to leave the whole thing to the politicians
4) pretended that Zelensky was the problem
5) and now --if Zelensky can play ball -- presto!  A big happy Belarus-style Ukraine! and no NATO and no END OF THE WORLD
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 27, 2022, 09:20:10 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 27, 2022, 09:03:31 AM
It's curious that even though nuclear weapons have become more and more lethal with each generation, the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons waiting for someone to push the button doesn't cause alarm in the general public like it did during the Cold War.

Very weird seeing Carnival (Mardi Gras) celebrations going on today.

Quote from: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 09:09:29 AM
Well...maybe Belarus will provide some kind of answer soon.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html

Belarusian special forces are loading onto airplanes in preparation for an air assault on Kyiv in what would be a widening of the conflict and a declaration of war on Ukraine by dictator Alexander Lukashenko, military sources have claimed.

Ukrainian intelligence has reportedly learned from within Belarus that 'special ops' troops have been spotted loading up planes for a major attack.


  Oops.  Well, I guess we are well into plan B and heading for worse.  I guess Putin is as nutty as everyone suspects.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ComradeP on February 27, 2022, 09:28:08 AM
Zelensky can't really afford to do that. Ukraine is still struggling with corruption and other issues and prior to the war Zelensky didn't make a good impression. I don't think he will become Putins patsy even if he's only acting.

Nuclear deterrence has a number of weaknesses and I'm hoping this will not be the time when two of them will appear:

1) MAD and deterrence in general depends on both parties caring about preventing nuclear destruction. 1 nuclear weapon is still enough to cause immense devastation.

2) If a single, or a few, nuclear weapons are used, there's not really any option of a "partial response" if any further launches can't be prevented.

If Putin would give the order to fire the missiles and the crew of 1 vehicle, sub or silo does so, NATO and the rest of the world doesn't really have a lot of options to deal with that. In order to prevent additional launches, the entire nuclear arsenal of Russia would need to be neutralized in some way. I don't see how that would happen.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:43:56 AM
oh I see exactly how it would happen and thats the problem.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MikeGER on February 27, 2022, 09:52:38 AM
There is a Plan C
When I read between the lines of Baltic states and Polands diplomats and witness the 180 degree change  of left-green chancellor Scholz view, after those diplomats briefed him yesterday eve ...and when i listen to his speech today
The Plan is to rebuild a USSR 2.0 

Putins foundational assumption for his plan is that his (nuclear) deterrence effect against NATO is stronger than that of the USA, UK and France against him in a standoff.

Nato will blink first.  And not risk the annhilation of NYC, DC , London and Paris just for the right of some Baltics to have a democratic vote and Netflix instead of RT 

He is sure that in a conflict with Nato, Nato will surly fight firce until their limit resources in the TOO are used up. But Nato will contain the conflict strictly to the Baltic/North Europian theater... USA (and other nations depending on their military capabilities) will not on day-0 blast his precious satellites out of the sky, sink all the ballistic missile subs that are constantly traced, sink his North Sea and Mediterranean fleet  (which is unavoidable to resupply Europe), deep strike into Russia at airfields, and even go for his mobile missile launchers,  maybe even strike his silos (without using nukes warheads of course), open up a second front on the Pacific side, etc 

He calculates he just have to soak up the huge but limited losses in fighters, tanks and men (which he sees as a neccesary sacrifice anyway) to finally get his will. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 27, 2022, 10:16:36 AM
Ah, snorkel, thanks!

re ComradeP: at this point, WW3 is more of a handy nickname for a shooting war between nuclear foes which could and maybe does escalate into a nuclear exchange which affects other nations in the world.

They don't have to fight to take warscale casualties from the results.

Warscale casualties across the world due to a war, is something that hasn't happened since WW2, therefore "World War 3".
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 10:18:52 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 27, 2022, 09:28:08 AM
Zelensky can't really afford to do that. Ukraine is still struggling with corruption and other issues and prior to the war Zelensky didn't make a good impression. I don't think he will become Putin's patsy even if he's only acting.

Nuclear deterrence has a number of weaknesses and I'm hoping this will not be the time when two of them will appear:

1) MAD and deterrence in general depends on both parties caring about preventing nuclear destruction. 1 nuclear weapon is still enough to cause immense devastation.

2) If a single, or a few, nuclear weapons are used, there's not really any option of a "partial response" if any further launches can't be prevented.

If Putin would give the order to fire the missiles and the crew of 1 vehicle, sub or silo does so, NATO and the rest of the world doesn't really have a lot of options to deal with that. In order to prevent additional launches, the entire nuclear arsenal of Russia would need to be neutralized in some way. I don't see how that would happen.

Well, the talks seem serious.  It's possible that Zelensky can offer enough guarantees for Putin to declare victory and play ball with Zelensky.  Presumably the partial ceasefire on the Belarus front will
evolve into a ceasefire elsewhere and Russia will get a quasi-Belarusian Ukraine and the war will be on hold for a while:


Aleksander Lukashenko has taken responsibility for ensuring that all planes, helicopters and missiles stationed on the Belarusian territory will remain on the ground during the Ukrainian delegation's travel, meeting and return," the office continued.



 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 10:56:33 AM
I feel like russia wants to waste time while it "talks" as it sorts its logistics out
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 27, 2022, 11:05:30 AM
If the talks in Chernobyl involve further loss of Ukranian territory don't expect anything of them.  The Russians will threaten the Ukranians with escalation of force but the Ukranians know that the world is on their side and will make life more miserable in Russia.
As to nuclear threats, Putin may be obsessed with Ukraine but he is cogent enough to realise that use of hypersonic weapons can be met with slower submarine launched or silo launched weapons.  Even if he doesn't care at all about the Russian people (he does to some degree), the oligarchs who live very comfortably will not care to go along with a Russian 'Goetterdaemmerung".
A more realistic threat because it is less attributable are cyberattacks.  However, the Russians (and Chechens) are being embarassed here having there government websites being hacked by Anonymous.  Anonymous are also threatening to expose Russian corruption at all levels to the Russian people.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/entertainment/tv/news/anonymous-hacker-collective-takes-credit-for-cyberattacks-against-russian-government/ar-AAUmbAn?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

NATO isn't going to fight in any conventional way, not until a NATO country is attacked, and Russia is too busy right now to do that.  Now more Russians abroad are speaking out including oligarchs.  https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/war-dividing-russian-and-ukrainian-brothers-billionaire-fridman-says/ar-AAUnne0?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
QuoteBillionaire Russian businessman Mikhail Fridman has told his staff in a letter that the conflict in Ukraine is driving a wedge between the two eastern Slav peoples of Russia and Ukraine who have been brothers for centuries.
The oligarchs are beginning to worry not just about their comfort but also their place in history.  There is definitely something off about Putin, but the oligarchs that have lasted accumulated their wealth and power through great shrewdness and greater survivor instincts, even if they lack in morality.  A few of them may have 'a loose screw' but not all of them.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 27, 2022, 11:17:39 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 10:56:33 AM
I feel like russia wants to waste time while it "talks" as it sorts its logistics out
And rush up reinforcements locally and any rapid deployment forces from Russia. 

Solops stated
QuoteI suspect that the Russkies need a a bit of a learning, evaluation and shakedown period
Some military leaders will be replaced, but most importantly Russian soldiers, who will have been awake for 72+hours will be resting.  They will be exhausted, especially if they were given modafinal (the modern replacement for amphetamines) to stay awake for the entire initial coup attempt.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 11:18:36 AM
we're living in a god damn James Bond movie.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 11:25:09 AM
on ADSB you can track 2 E-6s flying over the US.
kinda makes me want to watch By Dawns Early Light again. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 11:29:09 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 10:56:33 AM
I feel like russia wants to waste time while it "talks" as it sorts its logistics out

Sounds plausible.  US intell says the Russians have commited 2/3 of their mobile forces to the Ukrainian front.

Meanwhile:

Turkish foreign minister: Turkey recognizes the Russian invasion to Ukraine as "war"


Which means Russian ships can be stopped from leaving the Black Sea.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 11:33:52 AM
Ive been keeping up with that.  it isolates the russian ships off syria which could turn interesting.
pretty bold move by turkey.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 11:36:09 AM
and the EU is now expanding sanctions to belarus.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 11:53:38 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 11:33:52 AM
Ive been keeping up with that.  it isolates the russian ships off syria which could turn interesting.
pretty bold move by turkey.

   Yes.  But looking at it from Turkey's point of view its a win-win: 1) the Russians are very busy elsewhere 2) time to score some geopolitical points.  Nothing to lose, and a lot to gain.

   Now NATO (Turkey is in NATO) can begin to see an interesting calculus: if it takes 2/3 of mobile Russian forces several weeks to overrun the Ukraine (surely not even a third-rate power), why not
   just give them as much trouble as possible everywhere?  In attacking the Ukraine, the Russians have gambled and are so far not looking like they are going to get anything that is worth
   blowing all their credibility.  Their nukes might be the last big card they have to play.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 27, 2022, 11:54:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 11:18:36 AM
we're living in a god damn James Bond movie.

Well, I have the Martini part down but I'm certainly not getting Pussy Galore.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 27, 2022, 12:14:57 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 27, 2022, 11:54:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 11:18:36 AM
we're living in a god damn James Bond movie.

Well, I have the Martini part down but I'm certainly not getting Pussy Galore.

I chose a good week to start drinking.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 12:42:51 PM
 <:-)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 27, 2022, 01:04:45 PM
Some interesting stuff on Sky News (I am in the US, so I generally watch via the Sky News Roku channel).

Firefight footage that appears to be real. You can see an NLAW, Ukrainian armored vehicles, other vehicles burning in the distance...and the guy taking video cursing at the Russians. The tag says it was taken in Ivankiv...about 30 miles NW of central Kyiv.

https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-invasion-video-appears-to-show-home-troops-in-firefight-with-russians-near-ivankiv-12552606 (https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-invasion-video-appears-to-show-home-troops-in-firefight-with-russians-near-ivankiv-12552606)

A recent video out of Kharkiv, showing what appears to be Russians clumped around light vehicles that are driving down the streets backwards (starts about 32 seconds into the video). The Russians appear to be using the vehicles as cover...but they just look like good RPG targets to me.

https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-invasion-russian-troops-move-into-northern-kharkiv-12553047 (https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-invasion-russian-troops-move-into-northern-kharkiv-12553047)

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 01:13:57 PM
Skynews has been very good so far.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: solops on February 27, 2022, 01:19:57 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 27, 2022, 12:14:57 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 27, 2022, 11:54:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 11:18:36 AM
we're living in a god damn James Bond movie.

Well, I have the Martini part down but I'm certainly not getting Pussy Galore.

I chose a good week to start drinking.
What a great idea. Time for some port.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 01:22:12 PM
its amazing to think of how many ways this can break historically.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 27, 2022, 01:34:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 01:22:12 PM
its amazing to think of how many ways this can break historically.

I know. It might even turn into one of those wars with UN blue helmets running around.

The Ukrainians are asking for ammunition now...but they will shortly start asking for food. The Russian invasion is the ultimate supply chain interruption. It's going to take a whole bunch of food to feed all of those folks stuck in the cities. It would be a bad look for Russia if the Ukrainians start to starve. So then we might end up with non-NATO UN troops (the Irish? the Austrians?) running food convoys and trains while the Russians try not to shoot at blue helmets. 
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Gusington on February 27, 2022, 01:53:57 PM
If I am understanding all of the above correctly, we'll all be saved by Anonymous, Turkey and the ghost of Powers Booth? Damn.

I have been watching Sky News as well and it has been excellent. Dare I say CNN's coverage has not been bad either.

The news that Putin is putting Russia's nuclear forces on alert is making me soil my drawers. That is genuinely frightening.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 27, 2022, 01:57:25 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60543994
QuoteRussia's central bank has issued an appeal for calm amid fears that new financial sanctions could spark a run on its banks.

It said it "has the necessary resources and tools to maintain financial stability and ensure the operational continuity of the financial sector".

The EU, the US, the UK and Canada have announced that the assets of Russia's central bank will be frozen.
...
Market analysts predict that on Monday the value of the rouble will drop and Russians may rush to remove their money from banks.

"These new sanctions are likely to cause serious damage to the Russian economy and its banking system", said Clay Lowery, executive vice president at the Institute of International Finance. "This will most likely exacerbate ongoing bank runs... causing a sharp sell-off and a drain on reserves."

From https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877
QuoteRussian police have arrested about 2,000 people at nearly 50 anti-war protests around the country, according to an independent Russian monitoring organisation.

OVD-Info says more than 5,000 Russian protesters have now been arrested since the invasion of Ukraine.

Opposition in Russia will continue to grow and grow, especially with economic pain.  Putin may not be removed today or tommorow, but as more and more Russians learn the truth or can talk again about their murderous leader's actions there will be more and more internal dissent.

Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Uberhaus on February 27, 2022, 01:58:19 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 27, 2022, 01:53:57 PM
If I am understanding all of the above correctly, we'll all be saved by Anonymous, Turkey and the ghost of Powers Booth? Damn.

Youse pays youse money and takes youse chances.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: Pete Dero on February 27, 2022, 02:06:21 PM
Maybe the reason why Putin calls this a military special operation and not a war :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/vladimir-putin-declares-all-russian-military-deaths-state-secrets
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32913929

The Russian president has amended a decree (in 2015) to extend the list of state secrets to include information on casualties during special operations when war has not been declared.
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: JasonPratt on February 27, 2022, 02:19:31 PM
Quote from: solops on February 27, 2022, 01:19:57 PM
What a great idea. Time for some port.

Putin: "....I don't get it."

Solops: "THAT'S RIGHT!"  :D


(I'm being optimistic for humor and morale sake, but at least Putin didn't just overrun the ports despite his amphib ops.)
Title: Re: Russian Build Up on Ukrainian Border
Post by: ComradeP on February 27, 2022, 02:23:31 PM
Talking about food: Russia and Ukraine are the world's #1 and #5 grain exporting countries and Ukraine. Ukraine is also the world's #4 corn exporting country.

Particularly along the eastern shore of the Mediterranean, the population of countries like Egypt and Lebanon could face challenging times if deliveries are halted. In Egypt, bread is heavily subsidized by the government, which makes an increase in (already fairly high) grain import costs a problem both for the population and El-Sisi's government
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on February 27, 2022, 02:48:21 PM

Ukrainian forces destroy convoy of 56 Chechen tanks, kill general near Kyiv (https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrainian-forces-destroy-convoy-of-56-chechen-tanks-kill-general-near-kyiv-report/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 02:53:57 PM
FYI, I changed the name of the thread as we have clearly moved beyond a buildup.

Some of the footage out there is amazing. The determination and courage on display by Ukrainian soldiers and citizens is positively inspiring.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on February 27, 2022, 02:57:25 PM
Apparently that Chechen General who was killed was the most loyal crony of the Chechen president (himself a loyal Putin crony), and was infamous for being Putin's personal anti-LGBT bloodhound.  Ukraine did the world a huge favor killing that asshole.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 27, 2022, 02:59:02 PM
^Nice. Hopefully more favors are in the offing.

^And to JH's point, there's a TikTok of a Ukrainian civilian carrying a Russian mine off a road to a safer spot while smoking a Marlboro that's been circulating.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on February 27, 2022, 03:01:21 PM
^ Lol, that video had some real strong "Just another day on the job" energy.  What an amazingly chill and casual display of sheer courage.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on February 27, 2022, 03:02:52 PM
^Had to go find that video.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557399/Symbol-Ukraines-toughness-Man-disposes-anti-tank-smoking-CIGARETTE.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 27, 2022, 03:13:28 PM
Hopefully, there will be a change in venue for the meeting in fairness to Ukraine.  https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-698778 
QuotePrime Minister Naftali Bennett offered Russian President Vladimir Putin to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine during a phone call between the two leaders on Sunday.

Bennett said that he is willing to negotiate between Russia and Ukraine and that "Israel is willing to help if it is asked and at any time to settle the cross and bring the sides together," a diplomatic source said.
...

Zelensky has asked Israel several times to mediate with Russia, including in his conversation with Bennett on Friday.

Putin responded that he is willing to hold talks with Ukraine in Belarus, Russian news agency RIA reported.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 27, 2022, 03:22:43 PM
That guy with the mine became an instant hero/celebrity.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 27, 2022, 04:00:07 PM
I think I'd need something stronger than a Marlborough for that kind of work.  :o 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 27, 2022, 06:02:28 PM
I just saw an interview with the former CO of the 1st Armored, Gen. Mart Hertling analyzing footage of rows of Russian APC's destroyed in place on the roads of north Kyiv.   The vehicles were  mostly taken out by light anti-tank weapons from the rear, destroyed in marching column.

His take at the end was that this was that the Russian Generals "Were incompetent in the way that they planned this invasion". 

It's really starting to look like the Russians really just planned to roll in and start occupying without any real fight.  They are not operating like an army prepared to take contested ground by force.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 27, 2022, 06:10:24 PM
^I agree. It's as if the Russians did not know Ukrainian national character, even after coexisting with them literally 'next door' for 1000+ years, never mind the past 8 years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 27, 2022, 06:24:29 PM
I'm absolutely loving the fight the Ukrainians are putting up.  I'm starting to think this might lead to a cue that topples Putin if this keeps going this bad for Russia.

I went and bought a Ukrainian flag tshirt to show solidarity.  I vow to wear it all day 24/7 until the end of the crisis.  Might have to by a couple more as the original might start to stink after a few weeks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 27, 2022, 06:58:24 PM
^Where'd you get the shirt from?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 27, 2022, 07:03:49 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 27, 2022, 06:10:24 PM
^I agree. It's as if the Russians did not know Ukrainian national character, even after coexisting with them literally 'next door' for 1000+ years, never mind the past 8 years.

I know, right? 

I mean, the Cossacks didn't have a reputation as fierce fighters at all.....

Oh wait...

This is actually, in my opinion, another symptom of Putin buying into his weird alt history of the relationship between the Ukrainian and Russian peoples.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 27, 2022, 07:07:38 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 27, 2022, 06:58:24 PM
^Where'd you get the shirt from?

Amazon for 13 bucks.  Also got one for my 9 year son to wear to his third grade class and piss off all the woke care bears.  Nothing like seeing a foreign policy conscious 9 year old.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 27, 2022, 07:53:00 PM
My younger daughter (13 years old) has been watching coverage with me and seems truly fascinated. She takes after me a lot more than I thought. Maybe I will get her a t shirt too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 27, 2022, 08:43:27 PM
Quote from: steve58 on February 27, 2022, 02:48:21 PM

Ukrainian forces destroy convoy of 56 Chechen tanks, kill general near Kyiv (https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrainian-forces-destroy-convoy-of-56-chechen-tanks-kill-general-near-kyiv-report/)

  Was that at Bucha?  Holy shit!  The video from Bucha (I found it on the NY Times) is mind-boggling -- just endless Russian stuff blown absolutely to bits.  What hit them?  It looks like Godzilla obliterated them or something.  It's one of the wierdest things I've ever seen.  There are APC turrets sitting in people's front yards having been blown off from stuff in the street.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 08:54:49 PM
anyone up for some Twilight 2000?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 08:59:29 PM
I'm really beyond the nuke jokes. It's actually gotten pretty bloody serious and the possibility of nuclear war is getting much more real in my view.

Even if it means granting short term concessions and ceding eastern Ukraine, if it de-escalates and ends the war I think it will be justified, at least until some plan can be implemented to rid the world of Putin.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 27, 2022, 09:26:15 PM
Nah brah no backing down.  If we concede Ukraine today then tomorrow it's Estonia and next week it's Poland.  Putin ends here in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:27:45 PM
gallows humor and I get exactly where you're coming from.
I still think the oligarchs who control him wont let him go that far.  I keep turning the chess board around and try to look from their perspective.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:28:49 PM
if we had the option here I'd upvote Skoops post.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:28:55 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 27, 2022, 09:26:15 PM
Nah brah no backing down.  If we concede Ukraine today then tomorrow it's Estonia and next week it's Poland.  Putin ends here in Ukraine.

...and if it ends in a wider confrontation with NATO involvement and the use of nuclear weapons, you think that's justifiable?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:30:22 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:27:45 PM
gallows humor and I get exactly where you're coming from.
I still think the oligarchs who control him wont let him go that far.  I keep turning the chess board around and try to look from their perspective.

I hope you're right. I honestly don't know how the Russian political system operates or how much influence and control anyone can exert over Putin, particularly if something inside him has changed, as some are suggesting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:39:14 PM
my second line of defense consists of Jewish space lasers.

(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0571/6574/2237/products/11323-removebg-preview_408x401.png?v=1644258973)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 27, 2022, 09:39:37 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:30:22 PM

I hope you're right. I honestly don't know how the Russian political system operates or how much influence and control anyone can exert over Putin, particularly if something inside him has changed, as some are suggesting.

James Clapper Jr today said that it was his opinion, and one informed by speaking to people who are very close to Putin and speaking clandestinely to the west, that Putin has become unhinged. 

There are apparently quite a few inside the Kremlin that understood that this was a potential disaster.  Without massive mobilization the ratio of troops to occupied persons would be 3 soldiers for every 1000 potential insurgents.  That's untenable.

I don't think anyone has any real control over him.  If they did it wouldn't have gone this far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:39:45 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:39:14 PM
my second line of defense consists of Jewish space lasers.

Do you have the red button to activate those?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 27, 2022, 09:41:49 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:28:55 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 27, 2022, 09:26:15 PM
Nah brah no backing down.  If we concede Ukraine today then tomorrow it's Estonia and next week it's Poland.  Putin ends here in Ukraine.

...and if it ends in a wider confrontation with NATO involvement and the use of nuclear weapons, you think that's justifiable?

Destroying the planet with nukes is never justifiable, but what do we do ?  Give him all of Eastern Europe ?  Hell no bro I play enough poker to know when someone's bluffing.  He won't destroy the world for Ukraine it's a game of chicken and he's hoping we blink and back off first.  I said this last week, the ace in the hole was the will of the Ukrainians to fight, no one expected their motivation and passion.  I say we get out of our own way and ride the Ukrainians coat tails to a coup on Putin, there's growing dissent in Moscow and St. Petersburg, in 2 weeks that'll be full blown riots.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 27, 2022, 09:41:52 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:27:45 PM
gallows humor and I get exactly where you're coming from.
I still think the oligarchs who control him wont let him go that far.  I keep turning the chess board around and try to look from their perspective.

I half expect to wake up one morning and see a monotone news reader on RT announcing that; "regrettably, Mr. Putin has resigned to spend more time with his yacht and money."

But at the same time, Putin could really be the madman with nuclear weapons that we have had nightmares about since the beginning of the nuclear era. What's to stop him saying; "give me Estonia or I nuke you." Very scary thoughts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:45:36 PM
just to sidetrack for a moment.
china has got to be thinking, fuck we really cant take taiwan back....
for them this was one hell of a weather balloon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:51:34 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 27, 2022, 09:41:49 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:28:55 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 27, 2022, 09:26:15 PM
Nah brah no backing down.  If we concede Ukraine today then tomorrow it's Estonia and next week it's Poland.  Putin ends here in Ukraine.

...and if it ends in a wider confrontation with NATO involvement and the use of nuclear weapons, you think that's justifiable?

Destroying the planet with nukes is never justifiable, but what do we do ?  Give him all of Eastern Europe ?  Hell no bro I play enough poker to know when someone's bluffing.  He won't destroy the world for Ukraine it's a game of chicken and he's hoping we blink and back off first.  I said this last week, the ace in the hole was the will of the Ukrainians to fight, no one expected their motivation and passion.  I say we get out of our own way and ride the Ukrainians coat tails to a coup on Putin, there's growing dissent in Moscow and St. Petersburg, in 2 weeks that'll be full blown riots.

Dude...Ukraine is like one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. Even Zelensky, from what i understand, has jailed dissidents and political opponents...you're prepared to risk global thermonuclear war for that? Really? This is the country where you want to draw the line in the sand? It is madness.  You continue to base this position on the notion that Putin is playing a game while the growing evidence suggests he has become mentally unstable.

The notion of an outgunned and outnumbered people defending their nation with bravery is very inspiring no doubt, and it is easy and enticing to speak strongly in favor of their defense at all costs. But the equation has changed with the threat of nuclear annihilation. Whether one thinks Putin is bluffing or not, it remains a very real possibility, and these are not odds that any country should be playing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:58:40 PM
Im not trying to confrontational but where is your line?
if not here then Poland?
what precedent needs to be set here and now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 10:02:48 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/3lft6i.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 10:04:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 09:58:40 PM
Im not trying to confrontational but where is your line?
if not here then Poland?
what precedent needs to be set here and now.

In the nuclear age, I'm not sure there is any answer to this question. Comparisons to Hitler, appeasement and World War II can only go so far. Nuclear weapons require an entirely different analysis and calculation. It is a totally different game, and as Joshua taught us, the only way to win is to not play.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on February 27, 2022, 10:15:01 PM
What is unknown is how the Russian nukes are controlled. Presumably they also have some safeguards built in case there was mental instability in the leader. But maybe not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on February 27, 2022, 10:17:41 PM
Presuming and I am quite hopeful on this that the conflict remains conventional. My inner war nerd is quivering at the thought of all the books and analysis that are going to be written from this. From battle planning or lack of it to arms drones and atgm theories being proven or disproved.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 10:19:16 PM
Quote from: Con on February 27, 2022, 10:15:01 PM
What is unknown is how the Russian nukes are controlled. Presumably they also have some safeguards built in case there was mental instability in the leader. But maybe not.

Exactly...we don't really even know the details of their alert system. We believe they have something similar to our defense readiness conditions, but it is all unclear.

What i know is that I have very close Russian friends who have parents in St. Petersburg and the parents are in absolute panic and they swear that medieval things are happening to anybody who speaks out against Putin or the regime. They are convinced he has lost it completely.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 10:24:32 PM
after all of the things Ive read in fiction and non-fiction I just stunned.
its like watching a car crash that youve seen before in slow motion.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 10:30:09 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2022, 10:24:32 PM
after all of the things Ive read in fiction and non-fiction I just stunned.
its like watching a car crash that youve seen before in slow motion.

Yup. We are living in a Tom Clancy novel. For real.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on February 27, 2022, 10:48:27 PM
So...If I have nukes and I want something, not TOOO much of something, but enough...(my last territorial demand...pinky promise), all I have to do is act a bit aggressive followed by erratic and the world will let me have my way?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 27, 2022, 11:20:43 PM
For your reading pleasure:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60551140
QuoteUkraine invasion: Would Putin press the nuclear button?

My superforecast for the evening is that I miss the Politburo. Zelensky may be threatened tommorow with tactical nuclear weapons, but would Putin use them especially so close to Russia?  Does it matter "if there is no Russia we don't need a planet"?
I'm no longer confident of past Russian examples of acting with restraint with nuclear weapons indicating restraint now.
If I get to have a choice though, it will be better to confront now rather than live in constant fear of nuclear annihilation all over again.

Slava Ukraini!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 11:21:26 PM
Quote from: solops on February 27, 2022, 10:48:27 PM
So...If I have nukes and I want something, not TOOO much of something, but enough...(my last territorial demand...pinky promise), all I have to do is act a bit aggressive followed by erratic and the world will let me have my way?

You are completely simplifying the reality of the situation, which makes it extremely difficult to have a serious discussion about the strategic options, the potential benefits of risking a confrontation and the serious consequences of uncontrollable escalation. It's great to talk tough about standing up to dictators, but when poor leadership has already failed at deference and nuclear forces have been placed on high alert, I don't see what could possibly be so controversial about simply questioning whether Ukrainian sovereignty is worth risking civilization as we know it. 

If you think launching the largest conventional confrontation since WWII is just a "bit aggressive" and that threatening to use nuclear weapons in response to sanctions and material support while placing those nuclear forces on high alert is simply "erratic", then I'd have to say that you don't have a full grasp of the potential gravity of the situation. I wish it were as simple and straight forward as you suggest.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on February 27, 2022, 11:41:26 PM
JH, Nah, I get it all right. When we look back through history we see many wars fought over trivial things. And we see wars started after a series of build-up events. And we see wars started apparently by accident. I wonder how many of the accidental wars and wars over "trivial" events were actually one side deciding they weren't willing to put off the inevitable as their enemy got stronger? The real question here is 'Is Putin ever going to stop?' Is there another way to stop him (coup, assassination, etc.)? If the answer is no, then we need to push back now. I don't mean join the war, I mean supply the Ukranians, beef up Eastern Europe and then if he wants to throw the first rock, then so be it. Better now than after he swallows several more victims.  I think there may be other options, but the public is kept in the dark too much for us to be able to evaluate them properly. Given what we know, I am in favor of drawing a line now, partly because it is the right, moral thing to do and I think it is the smart thing, too. If the powers that be want to share enough to allow us to evaluate other options, then sure, I can get cold-blooded about sacrificing Ukraine. I doubt if that will happen, since our leaders like to hoard info. Sometimes that is smart and it is always a great for covering your ass. What we don't know won't bite them. But not knowing may induce us to pressure them into something foolish. Anyway, this all boils down to how reckless or unstable Putin is. Are we playing chicken with a nut or a gambler? And, it must be admitted, playing chicken with sane people on all sides does not always turn out well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 27, 2022, 11:44:55 PM
Belarus has announced that it is no longer "non-nuclear neutral" and will now host the deployment of Russian medium range nuclear weaponry in their territory.   

That's huge. 

Anyone that's been betting on Putin bluffing on anything has been taken to the cleaners thus far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on February 27, 2022, 11:51:43 PM
And the observation that our leadership is incompetent is appropos and must be taken into account. It s very difficult to factor that into any course of action.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 27, 2022, 11:56:05 PM
I still say he's bluffing and the wavering from nuclear deployment is what he's betting on.  The Ukrainians have exposed the weakness of his conventional army.  Putin is a paper tiger with nukes....the nukes are all he has so he's waving them around gratuitously.  You really think he's going to blow up the world ?  Remember, if he launches, we launch and both sides die.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 28, 2022, 12:01:52 AM
Quote from: solops on February 27, 2022, 11:51:43 PM
And the observation that our leadership is incompetent is appropos and must be taken into account. It s very difficult to factor that into any course of action.

Can we leave out a discussion of politics. As we know, that doesn't get us very far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 28, 2022, 12:08:02 AM
Willing to blow up the world?  I'd hope no sane man would be.

However, if he's as unhinged as some are saying, he might think he can get away with the use of nukes in a tactical battlefield role. 

And if he's well and truly unhinged, maybe further if it begins to look even worse for the Russian army. 

He's in a bad mess already.  A few military analysts have gone so far now to say that it's apparent to them that at this point the best explanation is that the Russian army is simply bad.  That's from leadership all the way down to the men on the ground. 

Images today of huge columns of Russian vehicles stretching over a kilometer, packed in and lined up on roads.  One analyst was frank "If that was against NATO every man in that column would be dead.  The only reason they're alive is that Ukraine troops aren't able to make them pay for that mistake".

I said before my biggest fear was that the Russians would bog down and Putin would start to have his military exposed as a paper tiger.  At that point I'm not sure what he'd do to try to steal a decisive victory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 28, 2022, 12:11:51 AM
Here's some insight, in my naval action clan I have a member who is Ukrainian and a member who is Russian.

At the out break of war, the Ukrainian clan member posted in our discord "today Russia invaded my country, I go to fight for my country".  We haven't heard from him since.

The Russian guy is a teacher in St. Petersburg and is about our age of late 40s and you can tell he's a Putin hardliner.  I've been having some great debates over our discord over the last few days and it's been interesting hearing the other side.

Putin and hard liners are out for payback of 1989 and the embarrassment of the 90s.  Hardliners think gorbi sold out Russia and was a pussy.  Then in the 1990s when they wanted to be in nato and aligned with the west, instead they felt they were shunned and disgraced during the yeltsin years.  They feel the Poland and Estonia nato induction should never have been allowed and that's putins goal he's been planning since 2000 to reverse everything.  Hardliners always say what if Mexico aligned with Putin and Russian military were doing ops there.  I called bullshit on that cause we never dominated Mexico under an oppressive iron curtain like they did with Eastern Europe.  Easten Europe wanted protection and in the 90s nato obliged them....rightly so as the climate today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 28, 2022, 12:19:41 AM
I know some of you guys are looking at this like the " guns of august " WWI run away train escalation and we need to stop this snowballing effect.

I see this more like stopping hitler at sudatenland vs Czechoslovakia or Poland, it's just complicated with nukes. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on February 28, 2022, 12:45:03 AM
I think the end state will be on us faster that anticipated.

With the unprecedented drop in the ruble and the Russian banks preventing any selling of securities you are going to see enormous fiscal pressure brought onto the oligarchs. Putin was able to cow most of them in line and as long as they were all mostly coining money he could count on them to follow along (with a pointed lesson in polonium poisoning on being shot in the back to frighten any one who didn't want to follow his lead).

With so much financial pain now spread equally among the oligarchs it's no longer thunder dome economics (2 go in 1 comes out) any more. Now he has a bunch of pissed off barons and as any feudal lord knows that's  the time to be worried that your head will be put on a spike.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on February 28, 2022, 02:02:35 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 02:53:57 PM
FYI, I changed the name of the thread as we have clearly moved beyond a buildup.

Some of the footage out there is amazing. The determination and courage on display by Ukrainian soldiers and citizens is positively inspiring.
Where do you see that footage? We're getting almost nothing in terms of actual fighting here in the UK. Mostly just reporterss reporting.

After the Gulf War, I thought coverage of wars had changed forever
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on February 28, 2022, 02:03:34 AM
Also - time for a boycott of FIFA? wan***s
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 02:29:01 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on February 28, 2022, 02:02:35 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 02:53:57 PM
FYI, I changed the name of the thread as we have clearly moved beyond a buildup.

Some of the footage out there is amazing. The determination and courage on display by Ukrainian soldiers and citizens is positively inspiring.
Where do you see that footage? We're getting almost nothing in terms of actual fighting here in the UK. Mostly just reporterss reporting.

After the Gulf War, I thought coverage of wars had changed forever

War leaks on YouTube and Reddit has a ton of stuff. I'll post more links and direct videos.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on February 28, 2022, 04:33:58 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on February 28, 2022, 02:02:35 AM
Where do you see that footage? We're getting almost nothing in terms of actual fighting here in the UK. Mostly just reporterss reporting.


go on twitter and monitor the hashtags #Ukraine and #Kyiv 

..well there  is a lot of bullshit and fakes so you have to sort it out all your self what is authentic and also current

most impresive thing ive seen so far was 2 APC in column stopping at an improvised roadblock in a city and were taken out with literally a rain of molotov cocktails from a crowd ... scene was filmed from bystanding  that crowd at grond level   

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497542372271394818

- edit-  but seams to be from 2014
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 28, 2022, 04:55:48 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:51:34 PM
Dude...Ukraine is like one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. Even Zelensky, from what i understand, has jailed dissidents and political opponents...you're prepared to risk global thermonuclear war for that? Really? This is the country where you want to draw the line in the sand? It is madness.  You continue to base this position on the notion that Putin is playing a game while the growing evidence suggests he has become mentally unstable.

I live 15k from NATO, EU and Swift headquarters so I want nothing more than that this madness ends.

The problem is that if you grant a mentally unstable guy his wishes, how can you be sure he doesn't ask for something more after that ?

To be clear : I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know anymore.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FlickJax on February 28, 2022, 05:41:30 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 28, 2022, 04:55:48 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:51:34 PM
Dude...Ukraine is like one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. Even Zelensky, from what i understand, has jailed dissidents and political opponents...you're prepared to risk global thermonuclear war for that? Really? This is the country where you want to draw the line in the sand? It is madness.  You continue to base this position on the notion that Putin is playing a game while the growing evidence suggests he has become mentally unstable.

I live 15k from NATO, EU and Swift headquarters so I want nothing more than that this madness ends.

The problem is that if you grant a mentally unstable guy his wishes, how can you be sure he doesn't ask for something more after that ?

To be clear : I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know anymore.

The West is no longer squeaky clean, Trump was as corrupt as they come and our leader Boris is pretty awful too. Ofcourse Ukraine wasn't perfect but they were trying to go in the right direction.

Anyway for me this is totally sad on both sides and pretty pointless in a world where we already have so much to worry about.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Yskonyn on February 28, 2022, 05:52:52 AM
Reports of Switzerland being hesitant to back the EU sanctions against Russia/Putin causing frustration.
Switzerland has resorted to claiming its neutrality so far, but is under increasing pressure from the other EU members to get behind the sactions.
If not it could mean a serious hole in effectiveness as the country plays a key role in a large part of oligarch financial dealings.
We were talking about corruption?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on February 28, 2022, 06:04:03 AM
Quote from: Yskonyn on February 28, 2022, 05:52:52 AM
Reports of Switzerland being hesitant to back the EU sanctions against Russia/Putin causing frustration.
Switzerland has resorted to claiming its neutrality so far, but is under increasing pressure from the other EU members to get behind the sactions.
If not it could mean a serious hole in effectiveness as the country plays a key role in a large part of oligarch financial dealings.
We were talking about corruption?
The decision to fully back up the sanctions should be taken today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 07:55:50 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 28, 2022, 04:55:48 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:51:34 PM
Dude...Ukraine is like one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. Even Zelensky, from what i understand, has jailed dissidents and political opponents...you're prepared to risk global thermonuclear war for that? Really? This is the country where you want to draw the line in the sand? It is madness.  You continue to base this position on the notion that Putin is playing a game while the growing evidence suggests he has become mentally unstable.

I live 15k from NATO, EU and Swift headquarters so I want nothing more than that this madness ends.

The problem is that if you grant a mentally unstable guy his wishes, how can you be sure he doesn't ask for something more after that ?

To be clear : I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know anymore.

...and this is really what I am saying. That, in the nuclear age, in a conflict against the most heavily armed nuclear power, being led by an irrational and possibly unstable individual, I simply do not know the right answer and that is why it is critical that we ask all the right questions.  All rational political decisions are based upon an analysis of the costs and risks measured against the benefits and gains.

My concern when watching the news is that the majority of media sources are urging escalating US and NATO commitments without engaging in any such analysis. The general narrative is that Russia is bad, Putin is a maniac, Ukraine is a model of democracy that must be saved, etc.

Nobody really seems to be weighing the true risk of serious intervention or whether it is really in the interests of the world. If more people were factoring in the very real risk of nuclear holocaust, I don't think the decision to support Ukraine through direct military means would be so simple.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 08:17:38 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 07:55:50 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on February 28, 2022, 04:55:48 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 27, 2022, 09:51:34 PM
Dude...Ukraine is like one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. Even Zelensky, from what i understand, has jailed dissidents and political opponents...you're prepared to risk global thermonuclear war for that? Really? This is the country where you want to draw the line in the sand? It is madness.  You continue to base this position on the notion that Putin is playing a game while the growing evidence suggests he has become mentally unstable.

I live 15k from NATO, EU and Swift headquarters so I want nothing more than that this madness ends.

The problem is that if you grant a mentally unstable guy his wishes, how can you be sure he doesn't ask for something more after that ?

To be clear : I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know anymore.

...and this is really what I am saying. That, in the nuclear age, in a conflict against the most heavily armed nuclear power, being led by an irrational and possibly unstable individual, I simply do not know the right answer and that is why it is critical that we ask all the right questions.  All rational political decisions are based upon an analysis of the costs and risks measured against the benefits and gains.

My concern when watching the news is that the majority of media sources are urging escalating US and NATO commitments without engaging in any such analysis. The general narrative is that Russia is bad, Putin is a maniac, Ukraine is a model of democracy that must be saved, etc.

Nobody really seems to be weighing the true risk of serious intervention or whether it is really in the interests of the world. If more people were factoring in the very real risk of nuclear holocaust, I don't think the decision to support Ukraine through direct military means would be so simple.

  Sure, but how far can NATO back off before backing off begins to promote more escalation?  For example, suppose Turkey, a NATO member, closes the straits and Russian warships
cannot enter the med.  Given that might cause a major threat from Russia, should NATO deter itself and force Turkey to disregard the treaty from 1936 that says in time of war the
straits are to be closed?  A scenario that might ensue if Turkey does close the straits is that Russia says "OPen the straits or we nuke you."  At that point -- without any direct defense of
the Ukraine, things could begin to go from bad to worse pretty fast.  It might be better to push self-deterence onto the Russians by being as harsh about their attack on the Ukraine as possible
thus foreclosing the possbility of Russian threats against Turkey or anyone else.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on February 28, 2022, 08:39:22 AM
Quote from: Yskonyn on February 28, 2022, 05:52:52 AM
Reports of Switzerland being hesitant to back the EU sanctions against Russia/Putin causing frustration.
Switzerland has resorted to claiming its neutrality so far, but is under increasing pressure from the other EU members to get behind the sactions.
If not it could mean a serious hole in effectiveness as the country plays a key role in a large part of oligarch financial dealings.
We were talking about corruption?
Done. Switzerland takes over all the sanctions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on February 28, 2022, 09:14:46 AM
the threat need some comic relief ...

(https://i.ibb.co/kcCyGkb/FMq8l-El-XIAIP0uv.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/z5GGKsq/FMr-L-9-IWUAMp-CC.jpg)

Sveden send weapons ...first time since 1939 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 28, 2022, 09:18:37 AM
Ukrainian Navy post on Facebook today :  "Regarding the Marines and border guards, who were taken captive by Russian occupiers on Snake Island... We are very happy to learn that our brothers are alive and well with them!"

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-698897
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 28, 2022, 09:21:23 AM
^Awesome - do they know they are world famous?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 28, 2022, 09:31:18 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 28, 2022, 09:21:23 AM
^Awesome - do they know they are world famous?

No news on that, but being in Russian captivity I doubt they can find out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on February 28, 2022, 09:32:46 AM


This guy is good at giving the news. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 09:35:37 AM
I'm still finding the updates on ISW pretty invaluable.

Here is the latest:

Quote
Key Takeaways February 27

    Russian President Vladimir Putin put Russia's nuclear and strategic missile forces, described as "deterrence forces," on their highest alert status in response to "aggressive statements in the West" on February 27.

    Russian forces likely conducted an operational pause on the Kyiv axis on February 26-27 to deploy additional supplies and forces forward. Russian forces will likely resume offensive operations against Kyiv in the next 24 hours.

    Russian forces largely conducted an operational pause on their current broad front of advance between Chernihiv and Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces continue to delay and inflict losses on the Russian advance but will likely not be able to halt further advances if the Kremlin commits additional reserves.

    Russian forces entered the city of Kharkiv for the first time on February 27 but remain unlikely to take the city without the use of heavier firepower.

    Russian forces have encircled Mariupol from the west and began initial assaults on the city. Russian forces have not made any major territorial gains from the east in Donbas after four days of fighting. Russian forces likely intend to pin Ukrainian forces in place on the line of contact to enable Russian forces breaking out of Crimea to isolate them.

    Russian forces continued to advance north from Crimea towards Zaprozhia and, in conjunction with Russian advances on Mariupol, threaten to isolate Ukrainian forces on the line of contact in Donbas if they do not withdraw.

    Russian forces failed to seize Kherson after Ukrainian counterattacks reclaimed it on February 26. An unknown concentration of Russian forces remains on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and threatens Mikolayiv, however.

    Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine's successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast.

    The Belarusian government is setting information and legal conditions to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine and the imminent deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus as of February 27.

    US and allied sanctions against Russian banking will likely crush Russian foreign currency reserves, depleting the value of the ruble and risking Russian hyperinflation.

    The European Union announced direct military aid to Ukraine for the first time in EU history on February 27.

    Germany announced a dramatic reorientation of its foreign policy to mitigate the threat that Russia poses to Germany and its allies. Germany will prioritize military spending and energy independence despite short-term economic costs.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-10 (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-10)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 28, 2022, 09:49:27 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 07:55:50 AM

...

My concern when watching the news is that the majority of media sources are urging escalating US and NATO commitments without engaging in any such analysis. The general narrative is that Russia is bad, Putin is a maniac, Ukraine is a model of democracy that must be saved, etc.

Nobody really seems to be weighing the true risk of serious intervention or whether it is really in the interests of the world. If more people were factoring in the very real risk of nuclear holocaust, I don't think the decision to support Ukraine through direct military means would be so simple.

...


I agree that there is some hyperventilation going on in the media, particularly among the political entertainer class. Some of them can't resist scoring partisan jabs that I find particularly distasteful in this crisis.

Some examples:

Over the weekend, the media was on a "no fly zone" bandwagon. Folks who had no idea what they were talking about, were suddenly enamored with the idea of NATO clearing the skys. When NATO and the US administration threw cold water on that idea, some of the talking heads went on about how this decision was "weak." For me, the decision was regrettable, but very rational. Putin isn't Saddam Hussein, trying to enforce a "no-fly" zone would start WWIII.

This morning I saw some guy on a major news network going on about how there were still Americans trapped in Ukraine and nobody was doing anything about it. He then went on to score cheap political points talking about "weakness."  But frankly I'm glad we aren't going in there to get folks out. What is the US supposed to do? Send in SEAL teams to extract them? Talk about risking WWIII!

The good news in my mind is that I don't see this hyperventilation spilling over into leadership in the US, Europe or the other Allies. It's good to see the world coming together. It seems to me that the Allies are talking and working together before taking action. I think it is our only hope.

Who knows? Maybe even the Chinese will get tired of all this and offer Putin a nice cushy mansion in the scenic Nanling Mountains.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 10:15:00 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 28, 2022, 09:49:27 AM

The good news in my mind is that I don't see this hyperventilation spilling over into leadership in the US, Europe or the other Allies. It's good to see the world coming together. It seems to me that the Allies are talking and working together before taking action. I think it is our only hope.


I agree that seeing old western alliances standing together is a good sign. However, the difference now as I perceive it, is that the US is not taking the lead on decisions that are being made and the EU at times appears to making decisions without traditional US leadership or approval.

For instance, EU states applied direct sanctions on Putin before the US imposed any. EU states have promised fighter aircraft to Ukraine and EU states have banned all Russian registered aircraft from entering their airspace.

One other element of this crisis that is very clearly noticeable is the shift in the global order. I don't think the US is calling the shots and the combined power and influence of Russia and China is definitely a very obvious challenge to US global primacy. Regardless of how this conflict turns out, I think we are going to be dealing with a very different global order in the coming years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 10:38:23 AM
At least initially, the US was prepared to go beyond what the EU had in mind in terms of sanctions due to the EU's reliance on Russian natural resources.

At least in the Dutch media (I haven't been following sanctions coverage in other EU countries) the point was made clearly that the EU was as usual a little slow when it came to decision making. However, after that the EU rapidly started making its own decisions. I didn't expect that, to be honest.

-

There are many worrying aspects to nuclear weapons possibly being involved, some of which we discussed over the weekend, but if Russia nukes any part of the Ukraine and NATO, without any treaty or mandate to do so, responds by nuking Russia it will be NATO that starts a nuclear war, not Russia.

That's the Western dilemma: there's no obligation to defend Ukraine in any shape or form. That is, there were some "agreements" regarding Ukraine's security as an independent country but nobody cared when Russia annexed parts of the country after 2014.

That's why I'm a little surprised that, on the government level in a number of EU countries, decisions are made to send weapons to the Ukraine (in some cases from their own arsenal). In other words: various EU governments and in most cases NATO members are directly sending weapons to a country that Russia is now effectively at war with. I didn't really expect that either, I thought they would at least make private companies responsible or move everything to Poland first and have Poland make the delivery as the Poles don't really care anyway.

If Putin says: NATO countries are openly supplying weapons to a non-member state Russia's fighting with, he's entirely correct, and there the matter of not having any official mandate or treaty to do so can become an issue.

Now, of course we don't need Putin's support to do anything, but usually these things go by means of a treaty, mandate or some form of obligation to do so.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 28, 2022, 10:49:11 AM
^I'm not following the logic of "if Russia nukes any part of the Ukraine and NATO, without any treaty or mandate to do so, responds by nuking Russia it will be NATO that starts a nuclear war, not Russia"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Yskonyn on February 28, 2022, 10:49:45 AM
I am also rather surprised by von der Leyen's statement that Ukraïne is welcome to join the EU as a member state. As far as I know it was always held off, not in the last place because of corruption claims and a skewed political environment.
I am very interested in the reason why she stated what she did.

The point ComradeP makes about weapon deliveries has been on my mind these last few days as well. If you look at it from the other side of the table its easy to claim the West is indirectly, but actively aggressing against Russia.

Not that I am not happy to see the unified reaction of the West and the 'old alliances' (as JH puts it aptly) being intact, I do worry about the order in which this happens.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 10:53:19 AM
Quote^I'm not following the logic of "if Russia nukes any part of the Ukraine and NATO, without any treaty or mandate to do so, responds by nuking Russia it will be NATO that starts a nuclear war, not Russia"

As far as we know, Ukraine has been disarmed in terms of nuclear weapons in return for various security agreements in the 1990's. It can't respond through nuclear means.

Ukraine is not a NATO member. No Article 5 can be applied.

If Russia would uses a nuclear weapon in the Ukraine, and that act would cause NATO to reply through a nuclear strike of its own, it is essentially unprovoked: NATO is not under attack. It would be a first strike.

NATO in Europe is primarily a defensive alliance, though I'm not sure what the status of the no first strike policy is.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on February 28, 2022, 11:07:21 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 10:38:23 AM
That's why I'm a little surprised that, on the government level in a number of EU countries, decisions are made to send weapons to the Ukraine (in some cases from their own arsenal).

well,  every tank blown up north of Kiev by Ukrainians we dont have to blow up ourself east of Warsaw ,or heaven forbit east of Amsterdam, one day.
in the meantime it developed into a classic placeholder / proxy war between the West and Russia.

also it buys Nato time to bolster the east front states now and to produce and replenish the arsenal       
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 28, 2022, 11:09:03 AM
^I know all this. What is boggling my mind is that in the above situation, Russia uses a nuclear weapon in a war of aggression on Ukraine, and as a response, NATO responds with a nuclear strike being labeled as 'unprovoked.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 11:16:36 AM
Because NATO is not under attack.

NATO and the Warsaw Pact are/were not meant to be the world's nuclear peacekeepers. As the world was quickly divided into spheres of influence, it was difficult not to step on the toes of a member state of either organization in some way during the Cold War, but that doesn't mean a nuclear response to a strike in a non-member state is something any member state should reply to with its own nuclear strike.

In terms of ties to NATO, being an aspiring member gets you no credit. You're either in, or your not, and when you're not, NATO's nuclear umbrella doesn't cover you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 11:20:11 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 10:38:23 AM


Now, of course we don't need Putin's support to do anything, but usually these things go by means of a treaty, mandate or some form of obligation to do so.

  I think the motive (if not the treaty obligation) is self-defense and the logic of pouring weapons into the Ukraine is pretty simple: there was no threat at all to Russia from Ukraine therefore all
bets are off and Russia has no grounds whatsoever to object to anyone's arming Ukraine.  Note that the weapons are being provided by individual countries, not NATO.  The EU is not NATO.
So to reiterate, one basic rule of sovereignty is that any nation whatsoever has the obligation to defend itself.  An unprovoked attack on a nearby nation with no
justifcation or declaration of war strongly implies that all sovereign states must apply the basic rule of self-defense and arm the attacked nation so as to protect themselves.
Here Putin's threats against the world in general have backfired from day one since any nation on the planet can claim self-defense against a nuclear threat to the planet.

  Of course things can get extreme pretty fast (eg. Turkey's international agreement about closing the straits in wartime to ALL belligerent powers) when unprovoked actions start triggering
other treaty obligations.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 11:21:32 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 28, 2022, 11:09:03 AM
^I know all this. What is boggling my mind is that in the above situation, Russia uses a nuclear weapon in a war of aggression on Ukraine, and as a response, NATO responds with a nuclear strike being labeled as 'unprovoked.'

Posting this here for a discussion on the Budapest Memorandum and the nature of US/UK obligations to Ukraine based upon the "security assurances" provided as consideration for Ukraine to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 11:24:03 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 11:20:11 AM

  I think the motive (if not the treaty obligation) is self-defense and the logic of pouring weapons into the Ukraine is pretty simple: there was no threat at all to Russia from Ukraine therefore all
bets are off and Russia has no grounds whatsoever to object to anyone's arming Ukraine.

This point is arguable and it is something that is not really being addressed in the mainstream media, or at least most of it. Ukraine's alignment with the west and NATO is a clear strategic threat to Russia, beyond any shadow of a doubt. I am not saying that this justifies the invasion, but there is at least some strategic rationale from the Russian perspective to annex and/or replace the government in Ukraine that needs to be taken into account when measuring a response. Nothing is so black and white, it is complex and gray.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 11:24:11 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 11:16:36 AM
Because NATO is not under attack.

NATO and the Warsaw Pact are/were not meant to be the world's nuclear peacekeepers. As the world was quickly divided into spheres of influence, it was difficult not to step on the toes of a member state of either organization in some way during the Cold War, but that doesn't mean a nuclear response to a strike in a non-member state is something any member state should reply to with its own nuclear strike.

In terms of ties to NATO, being an aspiring member gets you no credit. You're either in, or your not, and when you're not, NATO's nuclear umbrella doesn't cover you.

  It doesn't matter whose umbrella is covering who.  An implied threat to blow up the world obligates all nations to defend themselves against that threat.  For example, China, India and Pakistan and North Korea might want to consider preparing their nukes to hit Russia if the Russians claim they are going to start shooting nukes since self-defense strongly implies preserving the planet as a livable one.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 11:30:06 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 11:24:03 AM

there is at least some strategic rationale from the Russian perspective to annex and/or replace the government in Ukraine that needs to be taken into account when measuring a response. Nothing is so black and white, it is complex and gray.

  By a similar rationale, everybody should arm Ukraine like crazy and perhaps with more justification since the Russians have actually attacked which kind of clarifies the situation in terms of the self-defense of
other nations: to wit: let them fight it out in Ukraine and not elsewhere.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 11:43:27 AM
I don't feel safe in this world no more
I don't want die in a nuclear war
I want to sail away to a distant shore, and
live like an ape man

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 11:43:29 AM
QuoteAn implied threat to blow up the world obligates all nations to defend themselves against that threat.

Nuclear deterrence means every day there's an implied threat to blow up the world, that doesn't take an active ground war.

The war in the Ukraine changes very little to that point, also because Ukraine is not a nuclear power and can't fire nuclear weapons in self-defence.

QuoteNote that the weapons are being provided by individual countries, not NATO.  The EU is not NATO.

But many of those states are NATO member states, which I mentioned. I didn't say that either the EU as a whole or NATO were delivering weapons.

Look at this from the Russian perspective: Putin has a feeling that the Western world is against him and Western virtues, democracy and ways of life are closing in on him.

When he starts a war with Ukraine, various NATO members start delivering arms to the Ukraine. That they do so as governments of independent countries doesn't change the fact they're also NATO members.

It's important to note that many of those governments, including the Dutch government, were highly reluctant to deliver arms after 2014. In both cases the Ukraine was under attack, though obviously the scale is greater this time. In the former case, most of Europe and NATO just watched.

A country like Sweden, known for neutrality during conflicts in Europe, starts delivering arms. The last time they did so, the Soviet Union attacked its neighbour. Now, Russia attacks a country on the other side of Europe without any direct threat to Sweden.

The government of Finland, a neutral buffer state between the Warsaw Pact and NATO, suddenly states that maybe they'll be joining NATO after all. Talk about throwing fuel on the fire when one of the reasons Putin went to war is to stop eastwards expansion of the alliance.

Switzerland, another neutral state, suddenly decides to go along with EU sanctions even though its obligations to do so are limited. For Swiss banks, their connection to the EU banking system would've meant they needed to oblige in some way, but there was no need for the Swiss government as a whole to go along with EU sanctions.

I don't think some of these decisions are very rational, and they seem to be made mostly after public outrage.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 28, 2022, 11:52:52 AM
I've been doing some reading on what you posted above, JH, here: Firebird - A Memoir: The Elusive Fate of Russian Democracy by Andrei Kozyrev. It covers all the treaties from the beginning of the 1990s and the newly emergent former Soviet republics.

And like you say it is a very gray area, to say the least.

I understand Ukraine is not a member state but once a war like this starts every state even remotely involved has to be as disciplined as possible, when dealing with the frightening unknown of one nuclear capable insane person.

I also understand that Putin feels surrounded by NATO and the west, but actively going to war to stop encroachment is a failed policy at best, and throwing fuel on the fire like ComradeP says above, at worst.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 12:02:38 PM
Regarding the Budapest Memorandum: it was not acted upon in 2014.

Biden was Vice-President at the time and though Johnson was still Mayor of London, the Conservatives under David Cameron were in charge. If either the US government or the UK government starts waving the memorandum around now, they would face difficult questions from both the opposition and from within their own parties having to explain why they didn't act in 2014 and later on when Ukraine's territorial integrity was violated.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 12:03:10 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 11:43:29 AM
I don't think some of these decisions are very rational, and they seem to be made mostly after public outrage.

  If not exactly rational, then pretty understandable: for decades and decades the Soviet Union and then the Russians kept up an insane level of threat against Europe.
Maybe they had their reasons, but you know after 50 years or more of rampaging around Europe (eg. East Germany, 1953, Hungary 1956, Czechoslavakia 1968) who cares?  if there
ever was a reason surely it is gone by now.  Anyway, so after decades and decades of worrying about the Russians in their various incarnations and with their various crony regimes,
the Russians finally blow it all, they crash with vast fanfare into a fourth-rate power and get massacred by the megaton.  Deranged with relief and happy to escape the massive anxiety of
decades of dread everybody pours weapons into Ukraine.  Not rational, but not just a matter of public outrage either.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 12:12:33 PM
I was born late in the 1980's, and I've never felt that dread. Nor have most of the people of my generation not living in Eastern Europe.

After Poland joined NATO in 1999, and with further expansion to both NATO and the EU, Russian aggression has been far removed from Western Europe.

Belarus potentially being absorbed by Russia changed some of that in 2020-2021, but after that things became more quiet.

I understand that older generations remember the very real threat of nuclear war and Soviets at the Elbe, but that was decades ago. I doubt many younger European citizens without an interest in history are even aware of the spectre of nuclear war haunting Europe during the Cold War.

Russia's conventional military threat to Western Europe has been limited since the Soviet Union ceased to exist.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 28, 2022, 12:15:16 PM
^Well I think that many in eastern Europe are feeling that dread now, so...welcome? This is what you missed x 100.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 12:21:01 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 12:12:33 PM

Russia's conventional military threat to Western Europe has been limited since the Soviet Union ceased to exist.

  You'd think so, but here they are seemingly doing something with their cronies and such and apparently real weapons in a quite large part of Eastern Europe.  Maybe its
irrational, but it seems like it might be safer for Western Europe to pour weapons into Ukraine and hope the threat stays there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on February 28, 2022, 12:34:32 PM
Just because a Russian decision is "understandable" or "makes sense" from the Russian point of view does not mean that it is acceptable to us.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 28, 2022, 12:46:29 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 27, 2022, 11:44:55 PM
Belarus has announced that it is no longer "non-nuclear neutral" and will now host the deployment of Russian medium range nuclear weaponry in their territory.   
This may be a violation of the Budapest Memorandum for Belorus depending on the exact verbiage of the treaty.  In regards to Ukraine, it has the right to "Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used"."  This will amount to nothing as Russia, as president of the Security Council has veto power over any UN actions, and if there was any chance of removal of a permanent member, we'd be hearing about it. 

Further politicians are talking about Putin's change from cold calculating rationality to not so, including inability to conceal anger. https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/in-washington-questions-about-vladimir-putins-mental-health-something-is-off/ar-AAUq7Mh?ocid=uxbndlbing   Former Secretary of State, Dr. Condoleeza Rice:
QuoteFormer U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Fox News Sunday that she met with Putin at least a half a dozen times.

"He was always calculating and cold. But this is different. He seems erratic. There is an ever-deepening, delusional rendering of history, it was always a kind of victimology about what had happened to them, but now it goes back to blaming Lenin for the foundation of Kyiv ... in Ukraine,"

While in the same article, Lt. Gen. HR McMaster states the following:
QuoteH.R. McMaster, who served as National Security Adviser under Donald Trump, told CBS news that Putin was "not a rational actor".

He added that the Russian president was fearful about retaining control of the country.

"I think now he knows that all of that is at risk," McMaster added.

"The Russian military doesn't look very good right now, he does not look very powerful and this is going to jeopardize his ability to stay in power."

A dissentin opinion on Putin's state of mind is from a CIA officer: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-watchers-us-officials-putins-211412375.html
Quote"What he's doing now is consistent with what he has done, and said he was always planning to do," said Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, who served two tours as a CIA operations officer in Moscow, the second as station chief.

"So while it may not seem rational or logical to us – and I agree with Condi (Rice) that it doesn't make sense – I would not say it's because he's changed," Mowatt-Larssen said. "I would say it's because he's decided to roll the dice and fulfill 20 years of thinking about doing this. This is what he has aspired to do since he took power to restore – not just a smaller Russia empire – but the Soviet Union.
...
"I think the danger of thinking it is that we're not understanding the nature of the source of Putin's continued obsession," Mowatt-Larssen said. "By focusing on theories that there's something wrong with Putin's mental state, it distracts us from understanding or grasping the darker reality, which is that the basis for what Putin is doing now has existed throughout his 20 years rule. He's just implementing the thinking and planning he's had ever since he came to power.""
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on February 28, 2022, 12:49:48 PM
I think Putin's thinking is past the point where old agreements and understandings matter if they do not work in his favor. And his apparent disdain for public opinion makes things dicey indeed. Opposing opinion will only matter if it manifests internally and in sufficient quantity.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on February 28, 2022, 12:50:10 PM
Good interview with Gen. David Petraeus


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 01:16:25 PM
Quote from: solops on February 28, 2022, 12:34:32 PM
Just because a Russian decision is "understandable" or "makes sense" from the Russian point of view does not mean that it is acceptable to us.

Yes, but you have to understand the rationale of your enemy in order to formulate a strategy to confront them, or deescalate, particularly when nuclear weapons are involved. You have to consider the goals and perspective of your enemy in order to formulate an appropriate response.

To be willingly ignorant in this regard and to cast aside Russia's motivations is to act in blindness. Such a position is ludicrous.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on February 28, 2022, 01:21:00 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 01:16:25 PM
Quote from: solops on February 28, 2022, 12:34:32 PM
Just because a Russian decision is "understandable" or "makes sense" from the Russian point of view does not mean that it is acceptable to us.

Yes, but you have to understand the rationale of your enemy in order to formulate a strategy to confront them, or deescalate, particularly when nuclear weapons are involved. You have to consider the goals and perspective of your enemy in order to formulate an appropriate response.

To be willingly ignorant in this regard and to cast aside Russia's motivations is to act in blindness. Such a position is ludicrous.
Absolutely.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 28, 2022, 01:23:34 PM
Conventionally, peace talks have finished but will continue on the Poland-Belorus border "in a few days".  Zelensky has asked for a ceasefire, but when the UN votes on this, Russia will obviously veto this.

As has been mentioned, Belorus, will be sending in troops.  Russia will be cajoling its client states to provide high quality troops like VDV and spetsnaz for urban fighting.  Kazakhstan has stated it will not send troops, but President Tokayev will be under pressure to return Moscow's favour of sending 2000 troops in early January to put down a possible coup. https://www.dailypioneer.com/2022/columnists/kazakhstan--a-quarrel-among-thieves.html
As they will want to avoid sanctions that have hit Belorus, attempts will be made to disguise their identity.  Belorus has past and current internal turmoil which will limit the number of troops that can be sent.  https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/belarus-on-the-verge-of-sending-soldiers-into-ukraine-to-support-russia/ar-AAUq1gq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531 
QuoteThe referendum sparked the biggest protests in months as thousands took to the streets in Belarus, where President Alexander Lukashenko has imposed a sweeping crackdown on dissent after a contested election challenged his grip on power in 2020.

About 800 people were arrested.

"Despite the numerous calls from destructive Telegram channels to destabilize the situation, which were spread by citizens outside the country, mass protests did not happen. Police officers were focused on prompt response and suppression of provocations," the interior ministry said.

The Russian army may have neglected its fuel logistics expecting to capture large quantities.  During the operational pause, a large fuel depot outside of Kiev was destroyed by rocket attack, denying its use to the Ukranians.  I think we will see an improvement in Russian tactics if only slight, most especially with an increase in firepower, mostly artillery and airpower, but still restraint from razing urban areas at least temporarily.  Ukranians will continue to bravely resist but there will be an increase in casualties, especially amongst untrained volunteers. 

More oligarchs outside of Russia are speaking out, with even Abramovich, owner of Chelsea FC, hoping to intervene.  https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/60552754 
QuoteChelsea owner Roman Abramovich has been asked by Ukraine to help support their attempts to reach a "peaceful resolution" with Russia, the billionaire's spokesperson says.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 01:27:17 PM
Quote
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a second round of negotiations with Russian officials will "take place in the near future." Russian and Ukrainian officials met for the first round of discussions Monday near the Belarus-Ukraine border.

"Ukrainian and Russian delegations held the first round of negotiations in the area of the Ukraine-Belarus border in order to find common ground for the fastest ceasefire. The parties discussed in detail a number of key topics on which they have prospects for finding mutually acceptable decisions," a memo from Zelenskyy says.

"A decision was made to immediately hold additional consultations in the capitals of the states. After that, the second round of negotiations of Ukrainian and Russian parties is to take place in the near future."

Quite frankly, I'm surprised there are "prospects for finding mutually acceptable decisions..." although this is somewhat vague and ambiguous.

Still, moderately reassuring that a ceasefire is possible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on February 28, 2022, 01:36:04 PM
BP, Norway's Equinor (formerly Statoil) and now Shell have declared that they will pull out of projects in Russia by selling their shares.

I'm cynical enough to think that this isn't purely due to Russia's actions in the Ukraine as if they can sell their shares the Russians can't carry out Medvedev's threat of nationalization. An increase in sanctions to cover fuel/energy suppliers also would no longer harm those oil companies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 28, 2022, 01:39:05 PM
I wonder what percentage of Russian casualties so far have been very young, barely trained conscripts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on February 28, 2022, 01:55:12 PM
Ukrainian ambassador to the UN pretty much tells Putin to kill himself: "If he wants to kill himself, he doesn't need to use nuclear arsenal. He has to do what the guy in Berlin did in a bunker in May 1945"

At 1:47 he reads the final texts between a Russian soldier and his mother as he realized everything he was told was a lie.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 28, 2022, 02:03:45 PM
I'm beginning to think if Belorussian or Kazakh reinforcements are what Putin's counting on, he woefully misjudged this situation.  It's like if we said, brah if we don't have those Canadian reinforcements our battle in fallujha is going to fail.  I'm starting to call emperor has no clothes on Putin.  Just sad he has nukes and we can't get at him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 28, 2022, 02:33:02 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 28, 2022, 02:03:45 PM
I'm beginning to think if Belorussian or Kazakh reinforcements are what Putin's counting on, he woefully misjudged this situation.  It's like if we said, brah if we don't have those Canadian reinforcements our battle in fallujha is going to fail.  I'm starting to call emperor has no clothes on Putin.  Just sad he has nukes and we can't get at him.
Canadians weren't in Iraq, but I'm sure you know that.  Canadians were dependent on the US  for support when the Taliban tried to drive them out of Panjwai.
About Kazakhstan troops it is speculation by me.  Putin will need troops to continue, but Kazakhstan has internal problems and also won't want to face sanctions.

Hopefully, by some miracle the Russians will agree to a cease-fire at the un or elsewhere, but I'm not holding my breath.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 28, 2022, 02:35:35 PM
I know it was more joke and I didn't want say Brits and offend any one, but the Brit's also fought well and probably would have been welcomed at fallujha.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 28, 2022, 02:36:19 PM
The Ukrainian ambassador to the UN is a boss. 

Heck of a way to tell Putin to go kill himself.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 28, 2022, 03:21:37 PM
I'm wondering if the sucess the Ukrainians are having against the Russian Juggernaut won't be used in some way as justification by Putin for the invasion. He could easily claim that the reason he HAD TO invade was that the threat from Ukraine to Russia was evident, as in that his army was so badly damaged by the Ukrainians, and claim it was all really a necessary DEFENSIVE act after all.  :o  The many loses he can claim are because the West had armed the Ukraine with masses of it's very best weapons. And snuck-in secret fighting forces. It makes more sense than calling them all a bunch of, 'Drug-Addicts and Nazis'.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 03:42:52 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 28, 2022, 03:21:37 PM
I'm wondering if the sucess the Ukrainians are having against the Russian Juggernaut won't be used in some way as justification by Putin for the invasion. He could easily claim that the reason he HAD TO invade was that the threat from Ukraine to Russia was evident, as in that his army was so badly damaged by the Ukrainians, and claim it was all really a necessary DEFENSIVE act after all.  :o  The many loses he can claim are because the West had armed the Ukraine with masses of it's very best weapons. And snuck-in secret fighting forces. It makes more sense than calling them all a bunch of, 'Drug-Addicts and Nazis'.

  Putin may have chosen the more senseless "drug-addicts and NAZIs" excuse precisely because it was senseless and he wanted to look crazy or at least like he was really his own crony.
I wanna see the Disney princess version of Princess Putin singing about how much he wants to be a crony "my own crony, a crony of my own that is me...(sustained note)"  My little Crony.

  Oh and:
The Kremlin ordered hundreds of Russian mercenaries in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, The Times of London reported.

Between 2,000 and 4,000 mercenaries with the Wagner Group — a private army believed to be owned by the Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin — entered Ukraine through Belarus in January, The Times reported.

Some 400 of them were deployed to Kyiv, while others were sent to the pro-Kremlin regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, the newspaper reported.

Zelenskyy's name tops the Wagner Group kill list of 23 senior Ukrainian figures that includes Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, The Times reported.


This has completely wrecked the last vestages of my simple childlike faith:  if you can't rely on 4000 assassins to take out even one of 23 people -- what is the world coming to!!!
What happened to all those innocent assassins?  Where are they now?  I want to be a crony I can call my own....

Plus:

The official said they were concerned with the "risks that come with a lack of Russian progress" especially the "use of rockets today and tube artillery — in Kyiv and Kharkiv — which risks being far more indiscriminate."
   


right, when you run out of cronies and assassins, time to bring up some serious artillery.  I'm sure the Russians can put some kind of real attack together, meanwhile its odd that their
lack of progress can't be seen as something the defenders can exploit, by say, digging in or laying mines or something.  Oh well.  I want to be my own crony.

Video: I don't think Putin knows what he wants to do, says fmr. U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul (CNBC)

Interesting.  Maybe he should give himself a clue?  If he were his own crony, he'd know just the thing to do!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 28, 2022, 03:54:18 PM
Some interesting thoughts on the Russian slowdown for the logistically inclined. It suggests that Russian supply shortages may not be decisive (yet?).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-russian-invasion-has-some-logistical-problems-that-doesn-t-mean-it-s-doomed/ar-AAUqzjR?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-russian-invasion-has-some-logistical-problems-that-doesn-t-mean-it-s-doomed/ar-AAUqzjR?ocid=msedgntp)

The article also has a link to a Rand report on logistics in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. Interesting charts in the back of the report show the number of trucks used to support Coalition forces. Most interesting is that the vast majority of trucks used were from contractors and the host nation (ie. not military trucks). Also it talks about how even in major operations that were otherwise textbook in execution, there were still severe fuel shortages at times due to a strained logistics chain.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG344.html (https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG344.html)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on February 28, 2022, 04:42:59 PM
There's a wider issue (pre/post WWII) when it comes to the Russian Armed Forces as a whole, be they the RKKA, the Soviet Armed Forces, or today's AFRF.

That being that they remain a third-rate army and have been since their inception, at least judging by this and previous campaigns throughout history. Their performance has only reinforced this obervation of them as an undisciplined, poorly led, poorly trained army of conscripts (primarily), utterly lacking in esprit de corps, who still suffer huge causalities simply maneuvering and or achieving or failing to achieve battlefield objectives. Don't forget that during WWII Stalin's policy was Soviet Policy, and Soviet Policy was to "Bury them with corpses." Given the large numbers of causalities the AFRF is taking in the Ukrainian AO, this policy still seems to be in effect.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on February 28, 2022, 05:27:16 PM
Quote from: DetCord on February 28, 2022, 04:42:59 PM
Don't forget that during WWII Stalin's policy was Soviet Policy, and Soviet Policy was to "Bury them with corpses."

Probably a topic for another thread, but the idea of "Soviet human waves" winning WWII is a myth that's been thoroughly debunked by historians.  Stalin was certainly callous about the lives of Soviet troops, but this is a huge oversimplification of the cause of disproportionate Soviet casualties in WWII.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on February 28, 2022, 05:27:40 PM
Ukraine officially applies to join the EU (https://www.npr.org/2022/02/28/1083528087/ukraine-european-union).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 28, 2022, 05:29:53 PM
1940 winter war in Finland comes to mind.  Boy how those Finns embarrassed Stalin's purged Red Army.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 28, 2022, 05:37:34 PM
Quote from: steve58 on February 28, 2022, 05:27:40 PM
Ukraine officially applies to join the EU (https://www.npr.org/2022/02/28/1083528087/ukraine-european-union).

At first blush, this does not seem like a move that would result in a deescalation. However, I suppose there is a chance that Russia could tolerate EU membership as preferable to NATO membership, in which case a deal could be brokered whereby Ukraine joins the EU, but stays out of NATO?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 28, 2022, 05:45:04 PM
Unfortunately, the Russians do artillery well and their formations are artillery heavy.  They also have air supremacy over Ukraine.  The Ukrainians are incredibly brave defending their homeland but they will take terrible casualties as well.  City fighting will cause them heavy casualties, and they have the option to destroy cities.  Footage is coming in now of bomblets being used in Kharkiv. 





There is also another horrific option open to the Russians. Included in weapon and equipment shipments from the West are respirators.  Considering
Russia's willingness to use nerve agents in the UK and for its client state Syria to use Sarin, Chlorine and Mustard gas against its own population, it will remain an option for the Russians.  I won't even speculate about the possibility of their use, only that CW will cause casualties amongst Russian conscripts so will restrict use.  This is not a possibilty as Russia destroyed its chemical weapons less than five years ago.  Respirators are for defence against tear gas.

At least a BBC expert has stated that there is no movement in Russian strategic readiness.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 28, 2022, 05:49:06 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on February 28, 2022, 05:27:16 PM

Probably a topic for another thread, but the idea of "Soviet human waves" winning WWII is a myth that's been thoroughly debunked by historians.  Stalin was certainly callous about the lives of Soviet troops, but this is a huge oversimplification of the cause of disproportionate Soviet casualties in WWII.

Pretty much.  As someone who studied close to Russian History professors I know that there's been way too much German account prejudice on the subject, or at least there was prior to the last roughly 20 years or so. 

For some specific works on it check out David Glantz's books. 

All of that said, I can't disagree with the assessment that the Russian army today looks to be a mess.  Time and again they're proving when on the battlefield the post WW2 Russian military is underperforming compared to it's perceived strength.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 05:57:17 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 28, 2022, 05:45:04 PM


At least a BBC expert has stated that there is no movement in Russian strategic readiness.

  Right.  US Intell also reportedly sees no particular change in Russian nuke postures, but who knows, maybe they just relax some restrictions on their go codes or something, to
vritually quote Slim Pickens AKA Major Kong in Doctor Strangelove:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 28, 2022, 06:23:00 PM
Apparently, Russia has destroyed its CW stockpiles as of September 2017 according to OPCW. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2022, 06:38:53 PM
loving the farmer who tows an abandoned Gecko SAM vehicle with his tractor back to his farm.  :cowboy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on February 28, 2022, 06:39:16 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 05:57:17 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 28, 2022, 05:45:04 PM


At least a BBC expert has stated that there is no movement in Russian strategic readiness.

  Right.  US Intell also reportedly sees no particular change in Russian nuke postures, but who knows, maybe they just relax some restrictions on their go codes or something, to
vritually quote Slim Pickens AKA Major Kong in Doctor Strangelove:
Major Kong!!! "Nukular combat toe-to-toe with the Rooskies."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 28, 2022, 07:00:43 PM
Combat Mission Black Sea went on sale today on Steam...

Too soon?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on February 28, 2022, 07:14:26 PM
I would wait for the new DLC.  Ruski paper tigerski
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2022, 07:42:31 PM
Combat Mission: The Tigers of Kiev
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 28, 2022, 08:32:15 PM
Mom briefly saw some kind of notice on Fox News (before Tucker's show started) that Russia had finally dropped (or maybe thrown) a thermobaric bomb -- I had to explain what a FOAB is.

I have found exactly no confirmation of this at all, after +30 minutes poking around on the net, and Mom gave up waiting for Fox to provide some actual detail about this -- as I noticed, the footage they were showing certainly wasn't thermobaric damage.

I post this in passing simply in case this turns out to be something other than an intern at Fox having run across a click-baity video about the oil fire yesterday being something other than a missile strike against Uk infrastructure support.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 28, 2022, 08:34:11 PM
Meanwhile, the Epic Economist's episode today examines the strategic implications of the US and allies dropping the SWIFT bomb, so to speak, on Russia's banking system.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2022, 08:41:52 PM
google fuel air explosives
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on February 28, 2022, 08:49:07 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 28, 2022, 06:23:00 PM
Apparently, Russia has destroyed its CW stockpiles as of September 2017 according to OPCW.
And I beleeeeve them!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 28, 2022, 08:58:31 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2022, 08:41:52 PM
google fuel air explosives

I did, but there was no news confirming Putin had dropped one either today. (Again, aside from click-baity things from 1-4 days ago.) Still nothing like that on google a minute ago either.

The footage shown looked more like cluster bomb results, footage from which has been shown the past day or so, where Putin has evidently started dropping them in civilian areas. If I hadn't heard someone talking about Putin dropping a FOAB, I would have thought the text was a chyron error -- a stressed intern doing live news clicked a text already set up for when-if-ever Putin does it, thinking it was file 82348 instead (or whatever), and the director didn't catch it. That might still be something like the explanation.  ::)

Nothing on BBC about it either, checking a few minutes ago. Did see some footage about (apparent) cluster bomb deployments landing near an apartment building, but still obviously not a thermobaric drop.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 01, 2022, 04:25:00 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 28, 2022, 08:58:31 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2022, 08:41:52 PM
google fuel air explosives

I did, but there was no news confirming Putin had dropped one either today. (Again, aside from click-baity things from 1-4 days ago.) Still nothing like that on google a minute ago either.

The footage shown looked more like cluster bomb results, footage from which has been shown the past day or so, where Putin has evidently started dropping them in civilian areas. If I hadn't heard someone talking about Putin dropping a FOAB, I would have thought the text was a chyron error -- a stressed intern doing live news clicked a text already set up for when-if-ever Putin does it, thinking it was file 82348 instead (or whatever), and the director didn't catch it. That might still be something like the explanation.  ::)

Nothing on BBC about it either, checking a few minutes ago. Did see some footage about (apparent) cluster bomb deployments landing near an apartment building, but still obviously not a thermobaric drop.
I believe the suspected thermobar strike was a hit at a ammo depot instead, during nightime.

This will get uglier by the minute, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on March 01, 2022, 04:41:01 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on March 01, 2022, 04:25:00 AM
This will get uglier by the minute, unfortunately.
Yeah. Putin's frustration will turn into more and more violence (like he did it Tschechenia).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 08:12:29 AM
Quote from: solops on February 28, 2022, 06:39:16 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 05:57:17 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 28, 2022, 05:45:04 PM


At least a BBC expert has stated that there is no movement in Russian strategic readiness.

  Right.  US Intell also reportedly sees no particular change in Russian nuke postures, but who knows, maybe they just relax some restrictions on their go codes or something, to
vritually quote Slim Pickens AKA Major Kong in Doctor Strangelove:
Major Kong!!! "Nukular combat toe-to-toe with the Rooskies."

  Where the hell's Major Kong?

"Economic wars quite often turn into real ones," former Russian President Medvedev says
From CNN's Vasco Cotovio in Moscow and Xiaofei Xu in Paris

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has lashed out against remarks by French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, who earlier said that France was waging an economic war against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

"Watch your tongue, gentlemen," Medvedev, who is the current deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council tweeted on Tuesday. "Don't forget that in human history, economic wars quite often turned into real ones."
Earlier on Monday, Le Maire said in an interview with French broadcaster FranceInfo that his country and the EU would "launch total economic and financial war against Russia."


I thought there was a real war going on already?  (You have to wonder how to parce "real"...I guess real war for the Russians is nuking France for cutting them out of the banking system.
But if you blow up the banking system along with everything else...is that helpful?  Is that constructive?  Maybe not.
   )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 01, 2022, 09:31:28 AM
Ukrainian pilots arrive in Poland to pick up EU provided fighters.

Sounds like: 28 MiG-29s from Poland, and 12 from Slovakia

Apparently the Ukrainians thought they would get 16 Mig 29s and 14 Su 25s from Bulgaria, but it sounds like the Bulgarian Prime Minister quashed the donation.

Hopefully the Poles will throw in some goodies on the pylons before turning them over.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets/ar-AAUraGd?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets/ar-AAUraGd?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 01, 2022, 10:06:00 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 01, 2022, 09:31:28 AM
Ukrainian pilots arrive in Poland to pick up EU provided fighters.

Sounds like: 28 MiG-29s from Poland, and 12 from Slovakia

Apparently the Ukrainians thought they would get 16 Mig 29s and 14 Su 25s from Bulgaria, but it sounds like the Bulgarian Prime Minister quashed the donation.

Hopefully the Poles will throw in some goodies on the pylons before turning them over.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets/ar-AAUraGd?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets/ar-AAUraGd?ocid=msedgntp)

Yesterday Russia increased its attacks on airfields, particularly those in western Ukraine, most likely in an effort to deprive Ukraine of bases of operation for EU supplied aircraft. It will be interesting to see how long these planes can survive and how much of a difference they can make. The noose is definitely tightening.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 01, 2022, 10:10:28 AM
Okay, I finally found something about the thermobaric bomb drop claim, this morning.

USA Today says the claim partly came from Amnesty International. USA Today says they said it was used on (more likely fell off course near) a preschool in north Ukraine where students were sheltering inside.

Jen Psaki said the White House didn't have confirmation yet, but if true this would be potentially a war crime.

The USA Today article (linked here via MSN https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-been-accused-of-using-vacuum-bombs-in-ukraine-what-are-those/ar-AAUsS0G?ocid=entnewsntp) says that Amnesty International accused Russia of using at least one thermobaric bomb.

However the linked Amnesty International article (https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/02/russian-military-commits-indiscriminate-attacks-during-the-invasion-of-ukraine/) does not say this specifically, although it could be implied as possible from analysis of an impact crater from a strike that caused a lot of fire damage. I rather doubt a thermobaric weapon would leave an impact crater per se, since that seems to run against its mode of operation, but others here may have better information. (Maybe the point was that a lot of burn damage was caused by something with a relatively small non-explosive impact crater? I would think thermobaric weapons would be pretty easily identified from the damage pattern alone!)

Note that the Amnesty article linked from USA Today refers to damage caused on February 24th.

I suspect the Amnesty article has been updated to remove claims of thermobaric weapons. There are no articles at Amnesty right now mentioning that term at all, and any reference to "vacuum" is to some other topic and dates no earlier than last May.

Anyway, the specific reference to thermobaric/vacuum weapons was not from Amnesty.org (or not anymore), but from Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, who (per the USA Today article) told reporters after meeting with members of the U.S. Congress on Monday that Russia had used a thermobaric weapon.

Quote"They used the vacuum bomb today," Markarova said after a meeting with lawmakers. "...The devastation that Russia is trying to inflict on Ukraine is large."

This could be Ukrainian propaganda, however.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 01, 2022, 10:59:05 AM
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/russia-flight-ban-canada/index.html

Canada, the EU and UK have closed their airspace to Russian aircraft.  Hopefully, domestic political pressure can be brought on the US administration to do the same and cause further economic problems to Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 01, 2022, 11:41:03 AM
The AN-225 is apparently a casualty, too:

http://www.cnn.com/travel/article/antonov-an-225-largest-plane-destroyed-ukraine-scli-intl
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 01, 2022, 01:05:08 PM
NATO should open its airspace to pursued Ukrainian aircraft at least temporarily.  The Russians will not like having their own tactic used against them.  if Putin responds with a tantrum and detonates a nuclear weapon remotely in a show of 'power', the West can then provide airbases, Western aircraft and ordinance for a long war. If these are attacked, it will be Article 5.

This is brinkmanship but the West needs to finally respond in the same manner.  This will boil down to a battle of the will of Putin and an ever shrinking support base and the democratically minded in the Free World.  Pundits state of Putin that he acts as a chess grand master; however I will quote a real grand master on Putin.  "He thinks he is playing chess but he is playing poker."  And clearly with his opening moves another quote from the past from the same grand master:  "Putin thinks he is playing chess, he is playing checkers."

These are extreme measures but we are all in an extreme situation and right now the Ukrainians are dying as our proxies.  Putin will be rageful that the West has provided the weapons that stopped his initial attacks, and he will be rageful that the Ukrainian Air Force has been reconstituted and probably trained by NATO, so providing further aid will just be more of the same. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 01, 2022, 01:45:57 PM
^Disagree.

NATO opening its airspace to Ukrainian aircraft actively engaged in combat with Russia would be madness and totally unjustifiable under the circumstances in my view. It is as if you are suggesting that NATO should purposefully goad Russia into a situation that would require an invocation of Article 5. The purpose of Article 5 is for it to be used as a shield, not as a sword, as you are suggesting. You are trying to weaponize a purely defensive provision of an alliance to which Ukraine is not even a member.

I don't concern myself with all the tough talk and characterizations of Putin. I concern myself only with facts and consequences. Based upon both, the EU, NATO and other civilized nations can and should respond, but twisting our military defense commitments in order to use them to escalate or trigger a larger war is an outrageous suggestion and I am glad that thus far, it does not seem that those in leadership roles are seeing this situation through such an aggressive and unlawful lens.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 02:34:52 PM
Yeah, intentionally escalating the conflict seems like A Very Bad Idea ™
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 02:39:38 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 08:12:29 AM
Quote from: solops on February 28, 2022, 06:39:16 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 28, 2022, 05:57:17 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 28, 2022, 05:45:04 PM


At least a BBC expert has stated that there is no movement in Russian strategic readiness.

  Right.  US Intell also reportedly sees no particular change in Russian nuke postures, but who knows, maybe they just relax some restrictions on their go codes or something, to
vritually quote Slim Pickens AKA Major Kong in Doctor Strangelove:
Major Kong!!! "Nukular combat toe-to-toe with the Rooskies."

  Where the hell's Major Kong?

"Economic wars quite often turn into real ones," former Russian President Medvedev says
From CNN's Vasco Cotovio in Moscow and Xiaofei Xu in Paris

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has lashed out against remarks by French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, who earlier said that France was waging an economic war against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

"Watch your tongue, gentlemen," Medvedev, who is the current deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council tweeted on Tuesday. "Don't forget that in human history, economic wars quite often turned into real ones."
Earlier on Monday, Le Maire said in an interview with French broadcaster FranceInfo that his country and the EU would "launch total economic and financial war against Russia."


I thought there was a real war going on already?  (You have to wonder how to parce "real"...I guess real war for the Russians is nuking France for cutting them out of the banking system.
But if you blow up the banking system along with everything else...is that helpful?  Is that constructive?  Maybe not.
   )

  Russian state news accidentally publishes article saying Russia has defeated Ukraine and restored its 'historical borders'
ydzhanova@businessinsider.com (Yelena Dzhanova,Abbie Shull) - Yesterday 1:17 PM


  Well, that is odd.  The misssus and I (as Mr. Collins, it would seem, she as Charlotte nee Lucas) looking on with some disapprobation, had a kind of Jane Austen moment  -- I said "Such perspicacity!"
She demurred, "Mister Collins!  Ukraine is not totally occupied yet!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 01, 2022, 03:13:59 PM
About the planes in the area registered in Bermuda I found this : Russian airlines pay high tariffs on aircraft imported from the USA and Europe, but Russian regulations allow airlines to avoid those taxes if the aircraft are registered outside of Russia.
For this reason Aeroflot, S7 and Promeda register the Boeing and Airbus airplanes they operate in Bermuda.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 03:27:38 PM
Russian authorities started a website compiling the names, faces, and social media links of "traitors" who speak out against the war.  Even so far as including people who simply say "this is terrible."  Disgusting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 03:58:34 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 03:27:38 PM
Russian authorities started a website compiling the names, faces, and social media links of "traitors" who speak out against the war.  Even so far as including people who simply say "this is terrible."  Disgusting.

  As a different Mr. Collins, I went to propose to Miss Eliza Bennett. She said, "But Mr. Collins, your name and at least one of your faces and some of your other indescretions, is on a website
of traitors.  They will kill you intimately or worse if I learn to spell."
   "Not as intimately as I will eat that ham."
   "Mr. Collins!" she cried, "you won't be so quick to say that when you are dead."
   "No doubt," I answered bravely, "still you have to wonder: why a website?"
 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 01, 2022, 04:01:12 PM
^ That was pretty good.  8)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 04:08:13 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 01, 2022, 04:01:12 PM
^ That was pretty good.  8)

  Thank you.  I feel Jane Austen offers a sort of moral perspective on at least the verbal weirdness of the Russian onslaught.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 01, 2022, 04:20:21 PM
good article

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 01, 2022, 04:21:12 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 01, 2022, 01:45:57 PM
^Disagree.

NATO opening its airspace to Ukrainian aircraft actively engaged in combat with Russia would be madness and totally unjustifiable under the circumstances in my view. It is as if you are suggesting that NATO should purposefully goad Russia into a situation that would require an invocation of Article 5. The purpose of Article 5 is for it to be used as a shield, not as a sword, as you are suggesting. You are trying to weaponize a purely defensive provision of an alliance to which Ukraine is not even a member.

I don't concern myself with all the tough talk and characterizations of Putin. I concern myself only with facts and consequences. Based upon both, the EU, NATO and other civilized nations can and should respond, but twisting our military defense commitments in order to use them to escalate or trigger a larger war is an outrageous suggestion and I am glad that thus far, it does not seem that those in leadership roles are seeing this situation through such an aggressive and unlawful lens.

I defer to your legal knowledge and expertise.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 04:31:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 01, 2022, 04:20:21 PM
good article

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

  Seems to cover the situation very well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 01, 2022, 04:33:57 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 01, 2022, 04:21:12 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 01, 2022, 01:45:57 PM
^Disagree.

NATO opening its airspace to Ukrainian aircraft actively engaged in combat with Russia would be madness and totally unjustifiable under the circumstances in my view. It is as if you are suggesting that NATO should purposefully goad Russia into a situation that would require an invocation of Article 5. The purpose of Article 5 is for it to be used as a shield, not as a sword, as you are suggesting. You are trying to weaponize a purely defensive provision of an alliance to which Ukraine is not even a member.

I don't concern myself with all the tough talk and characterizations of Putin. I concern myself only with facts and consequences. Based upon both, the EU, NATO and other civilized nations can and should respond, but twisting our military defense commitments in order to use them to escalate or trigger a larger war is an outrageous suggestion and I am glad that thus far, it does not seem that those in leadership roles are seeing this situation through such an aggressive and unlawful lens.

I defer to your legal knowledge and expertise.

For the record, I appreciate your opinion and I agree with it from a standpoint of emotion. I truly feel for the people of Ukraine and I have been very moved and inspired by their resistance. Russia may have legitimate security interests that led it down the road to war, but the invasion is wrong. Unquestionably. However, from the practical perspective guided by international law and a strong incentive to limit the destruction and loss of life caused by this war, I think a much more calculated, measured and cautious response is required. There is simply too much at stake.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 01, 2022, 05:05:50 PM
Seeing stories of low Russian morale.

-Young conscripts deliberately punching holes in their gas tanks so they don't have to advance.

-An entire platoon sized unit just "walked off into the woods," leaving their vehicles parked.

-Russian troops surrendering without a fight.

-Highly risk averse tactics.

Very had to tell if any of this is accurate. Even if true, are these just isolated incidents? Or are there pervasive morale problems? The next week should tell.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 01, 2022, 05:11:04 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 04:31:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 01, 2022, 04:20:21 PM
good article

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

  Seems to cover the situation very well.

I'm not moved. She seems to contradict herself quite a bit.

"Putin believes might makes right..." but "he can be stopped by companies deciding to not do business with Russia"...but "Putin will use nuclear weapons if we don't head him off"...but "we're already fighting World War III"...etc.

How the hell is crushing the Russian economy going to prevent Putin's use of nuclear weapons and "end" World War 3, that according to her, has already started? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 01, 2022, 05:30:56 PM
"Sir, we suddenly cannot afford to launch the nuclear shells!"  :timeout:

A little more seriously (and more to the point of the economic strikes), I suspect at this point only the Russian mafia can save Russia and the world.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 05:32:34 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 01, 2022, 05:11:04 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 04:31:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 01, 2022, 04:20:21 PM
good article

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

  Seems to cover the situation very well.

I'm not moved. She seems to contradict herself quite a bit.

"Putin believes might makes right..." but "he can be stopped by companies deciding to not do business with Russia"...but "Putin will use nuclear weapons if we don't head him off"...but "we're already fighting World War III"...etc.

How the hell is crushing the Russian economy going to prevent Putin's use of nuclear weapons and "end" World War 3, that according to her, has already started?

  As I read it, given there's no logical end to Putin's supposed desire to overwhelm all of his opponents no matter what, then stopping
him with the minimum of force, say in Ukraine or
say with crushing the Russian economy or both, is a relatively safe and even persuasive economy of force.  Stopping him as early as possible and as
completely as possible would seem to
have many advantages over leaving him to pick his next targets at leisure (a slow-motion world war III in effect).  If he is allowed to simply
grind on and on, things are likely
to just get worse and worse with fewer and fewer options for both sides and nobody really wants that, probably not even Putin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on March 01, 2022, 05:59:17 PM
So, I'm not into politics like most of you are here, but my uninformed politically uneducated mind is asking....."why doesn't someone take him out"?  :-\
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 06:16:07 PM
Quote from: acctingman on March 01, 2022, 05:59:17 PM
So, I'm not into politics like most of you are here, but my uninformed politically uneducated mind is asking....."why doesn't someone take him out"?  :-\

Mostly because overthrowing/murdering world leaders isn't usually as easy or clean as it is in a technothriller.   

Putin's spent decades building up a bullwark of support among the Oligarchy in Moscow.  It's going to take a lot to put enough cracks in his castle that he's in danger. 

Fortunately his adventure in the Ukraine might be just the first step to breaking the house of cards if it goes badly enough for him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 06:44:52 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 06:16:07 PM
Quote from: acctingman on March 01, 2022, 05:59:17 PM
So, I'm not into politics like most of you are here, but my uninformed politically uneducated mind is asking....."why doesn't someone take him out"?  :-\

Mostly because overthrowing/murdering world leaders isn't usually as easy or clean as it is in a technothriller.   


   Maybe it used to be easier.  That doesn't stop people from trying to set it up with "decapitation" strikes or the 4000 assassins Putin sent after Zelensky.  It does happen moderately often though...Anwar Sadat springs to mind.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 01, 2022, 07:27:18 PM
The West could take out Putin but I'm sure he has done extremely extensive succession planning that goes very deep - and God knows what would replace him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 07:34:46 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 06:44:52 PM

   Maybe it used to be easier.  That doesn't stop people from trying to set it up with "decapitation" strikes or the 4000 assassins Putin sent after Zelensky.  It does happen moderately often though...Anwar Sadat springs to mind.

It's harder when you're going after someone that's established in a great power.

I mean, sure, we could put Putin on a kill list and mobilize assassins to get him, but, do you think that'd stay secret?  What kind of escalation would that bring?  That's a far sight farther than a no fly zone.

It's one thing for the powerful to kill the weak, like Putin's trying to do with Zelensky.  It's another for great powers to try to take out the other guy's head and not start a war. Even then, it's not always so simple.  Axios reported just today that an attempt on Zelensky failed.

A Sadat like event would be the preference.  Or a lone Russian with the will.  With the former, Putin's still not to the point where the Oligarchs and Army are ready to take that kind of step.  It could get there, but it's not realistic right now. 

In the latter, well, it's increasingly hard to kill the leader of a major power that resides in a stable country with good security.  Sure, you always have the power of the motivated lone gunman, but that's a roll of the dice more than anything. 

To that end, if we're holding out for someone to take Putin off the board, I think we'll be waiting a while.   And even if he is taken out, what replaces him?  I for one am plenty nervous about the worlds second largest nuclear arsenal residing in a country that has a sudden catastrophic power vacuum.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 01, 2022, 07:38:54 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 07:34:46 PM
I for one am plenty nervous about the worlds second largest nuclear arsenal residing in a country that has a sudden catastrophic power vacuum.

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it is widely accepted that Russia does, in fact, possess the first largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. But, at that yield, who is really counting warheads anyway?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 01, 2022, 07:41:47 PM
Ukraine is in the fight for their lives, so what do they do?  Have a postage stamp creation contest (https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-stamp-contest-baby-putin). :o   Liking the one of Putin getting his a** smacked \m/

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa57.foxnews.com%2Fstatic.foxnews.com%2Ffoxnews.com%2Fcontent%2Fuploads%2F2022%2F03%2F1862%2F1048%2FUkraine-stamp.jpg%3Fve%3D1%26amp%3Btl%3D1&hash=142761f92a2ce92f068ab505bdfdd17fe84c91fb)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 07:44:02 PM
Holy hell, that baby Putin one is hilarious!   :2funny:  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 07:46:19 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 01, 2022, 07:38:54 PM

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it is widely accepted that Russia does, in fact, possess the first largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. But, at that yield, who is really counting warheads anyway?

Yeah, I forgot about that.  But as you say, both sides have more than enough to get the job done on getting us to a Mad Max LARP.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 01, 2022, 08:05:51 PM
Quote
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that European Union members will not lend fighter jets to the war in Ukraine, after days of mixed messages from officials across Europe.

"NATO allies provide different types of military support: material, anti-tank weapons, air defense systems and other types of military equipment for Ukraine, humanitarian aid and also financial support. But NATO is not to be part of the conflict," he said in a joint appearance with Polish President Andrzej Duda at the country's Łask Air Base.

The alliance "is not going to send the troops into Ukraine or move planes into Ukrainian airspace," Stoltenberg added.

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/03/01/no-eu-countries-arent-sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 01, 2022, 08:21:40 PM
Can anyone suggest a good charity I could give to in support of Ukraine?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 08:22:53 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 08:12:29 AM

  Where the hell's Major Kong?


   "I don't think that anybody can really assess what's going on in the mind of Vladimir Putin right now," Romney told "CBS Evening News" anchor and managing editor
Norah O'Donnell on Tuesday. "The huge table with him sitting at one end is like Dr. Strangelove."


    The war room has a big round table in Dr. Strangelove.  Maybe Romney is thinking of the bedroom at the end of the universe in 2001 a space odyssey:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 08:25:24 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 01, 2022, 08:21:40 PM
Can anyone suggest a good charity I could give to in support of Ukraine?

The Ukrainian gov't is accepting donations for military support - probably the most direct way to contribute: https://kyivindependent.com/national/heres-how-to-support-ukrainian-military/

The Ukrainian bank website in English: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 01, 2022, 08:35:35 PM
^Thank you.

In other news, World of Tanks studio fires creative director who voiced support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine:

https://www.pcgamer.com/world-of-tanks-studio-fires-creative-director-who-voiced-support-for-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 01, 2022, 08:40:07 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 08:22:53 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 01, 2022, 08:12:29 AM

  Where the hell's Major Kong?


   "I don't think that anybody can really assess what's going on in the mind of Vladimir Putin right now," Romney told "CBS Evening News" anchor and managing editor
Norah O'Donnell on Tuesday. "The huge table with him sitting at one end is like Dr. Strangelove."


    The war room has a big round table in Dr. Strangelove.  Maybe Romney is thinking of the bedroom at the end of the universe in 2001 a space odyssey:
"No fighting in the War Room!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 01, 2022, 08:42:50 PM
Everyone needs to watch Dr. Strangelove.
Now.
Several times.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 08:51:47 PM
Quote from: solops on March 01, 2022, 08:42:50 PM
Everyone needs to watch Dr. Strangelove.
Now.
Several times.

I was gonna see if I can sit through Threads tonight but it might be a tad much right this moment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 08:56:50 PM
Quote from: solops on March 01, 2022, 08:42:50 PM
Everyone needs to watch Dr. Strangelove.
Now.
Several times.

Never heard of it.  Sounds spicy.

O:-)

(kidding of course)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 09:16:40 PM
Biden just announced he's closing U.S. airspace to Russia.

EDIT - Pleasantly surprised that Biden made a damn good speech about Ukraine to open the State of the Union, though I laughed at his George W. Bush-esque flubs like "Uranian" people.  I didn't know there's a war on Uranus now!   :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 01, 2022, 09:22:46 PM
I would not recommend watching Threads right now. I just watched it about a month ago and it f'd me up before all of this got so severe. Watching it now will probably make you cry. Go re-watch Red Dawn.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 09:36:52 PM
The 40-mile Russian convoy is stalled 18 miles north of Kiev.  Jesus, what a sh!tshow.   :idiot2:  https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 01, 2022, 09:43:57 PM
Wow, first scenes of Russian troops running into grocery stores to get food, now the major 'show' convoy is stalled for lack of gas.  I'm guessing a logistics general is cuurently on his way to Siberia or an early grave.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 09:48:06 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 09:36:52 PM
The 40-mile Russian convoy is stalled 18 miles north of Kiev.  Jesus, what a sh!tshow.   :idiot2:  https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

That convoy is badly in need of some BRRRRRT.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 01, 2022, 10:28:10 PM
Which general said earlier that if that convoy had been fighting NATO, not a single troop there would have survived the first hour?

Anyway... as someone whose sources suggested the backfield logistics were insufficient for an actual invasion, I'm glad to see they were correct -- for now.

Sure, there can always be a pause to bring in new supplies (and give the troops a rest) -- that sort of thing happens to everyone during an invasion, even the best planned and supplied invasion possible. (I've reached Churchill's account of the first phase of Italy's invasion during WW2, in his memoirs, and sure enough after the first pulse onto the mainland there had to be a definite period of resupply before continuing -- which the Nazis took good opportunities with, as Churchill was worried they would, leading to a very nearly run defense against counterattack which almost threw the British and Americans back into the sea. And this was BEFORE Anzio!)

But you aren't supposed to have to shove your logistics up to their forming-up positions (so to speak) near the front line on an invasion, before sending them on to your invaders!

As we now suspect, Putin thought (for whatever reason) that the Ukrainian military would somehow just roll over after a nominal show of defense, which is why he was content to inflate his invasion force in the final days with green recruits but not with a proper backfield logistic support (of invasion strength, not merely for training those numbers). If all you're going to do is roll into the nation and occupy it, you don't need much more logistics than for training at the border -- arguably maybe even less, since you'll be taking control of your enemy's supplies without much hassle! What you do need is lots and lots of boots to hold the ground, but they don't need to be well-heeled mountain-class boots (so to speak).

Then opps, there's a real fight, and your maskirovka preparations to confuse your enemies about your intentions turn out to have an unexpectedly sharp double-edge. To continue the Dumbledore Gambit metaphor, you'd better have the power prepared to back up your multiple plots just in case!

Now he's learning he doesn't have the power ready to solidly win, if the Ukrainians put up a real fight, so he's falling back on what prepared power he does have: nuclear threats.

And meanwhile, he's having to shuttle fresh supplies through his ill-prepared fortified sectors (for want of a better term -- they still serve that purpose, though badly right now).

His preparations, and lack thereof, make sense when considered through an expectation that -- to quote a common saying of another famous invader of Ukraine -- all he has to do is kick down the door and the whole rotten structure will collapse.

But like that other famous invader of Ukraine, the whole rotten structure didn't collapse at all, after all.

Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn't have 16 Armies shoved up to its side of the border for at least a nominal defense plus another 70ish divisions on the way to the front from its backfield. The rotten doghouse didn't collapse when Putin kicked in the door, but it's still only a doghouse instead of a vast wooden castle: he may not be prepared to do a lot of real kicking, but it won't need as much real kicking either.  :-\

Fortunately, as with many wars, the enemy only has to be annoyed out of fighting for you to win.

Unfortunately for Putin, right now it's his own troops who are mostly being annoyed out of fighting! -- thus Putin's fallback upon forces that can't and don't get annoyed out of fighting for him. (Whether his officers in that corps are prepared to turn those keys, is hopefully another matter again for us all...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 10:50:01 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 01, 2022, 10:28:10 PM
Which general said earlier that if that convoy had been fighting NATO, not a single troop there would have survived the first hour?


Petraeus. 

However, he also said, and I agree, that Russia would've never fought NATO like this. 

The Russians have all the look of an army that had absolutely zero regard for its opponent.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 01, 2022, 11:54:38 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 10:50:01 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 01, 2022, 10:28:10 PM
Which general said earlier that if that convoy had been fighting NATO, not a single troop there would have survived the first hour?


Petraeus. 

However, he also said, and I agree, that Russia would've never fought NATO like this. 

The Russians have all the look of an army that had absolutely zero regard for its opponent.

I know Ive read enough scenarios and text to know that the soviets practiced the idea of using large exercises as cover to surprise NATO.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Zulu1966 on March 02, 2022, 02:05:11 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 09:48:06 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 09:36:52 PM
The 40-mile Russian convoy is stalled 18 miles north of Kiev.  Jesus, what a sh!tshow.   :idiot2:  https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

That convoy is badly in need of some BRRRRRT.

Yeah I thought that when I saw it. Can you imagine the mess a couple of squadrons of NATO aircraft would make of that thing. Fish in a barrell. I have seen videos of armour sitting on a road out of fuel. Given the amount of time they had to plan this it is amazing it is so badly handled.

Can only think the planners thought this thing would be a walk over.

The only other thing I can think is that they really had only planned for exercises and when this didn't deliver what Putin wanted he told them to go in.

Of course the Ukrainian army have had something to do with this as well.

Still all seems like a shitshow so far and if it is any indication of Russian capabilities very puzzling.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 02, 2022, 03:40:28 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 01, 2022, 10:28:10 PM
Which general said earlier that if that convoy had been fighting NATO, not a single troop there would have survived the first hour?

Anyway... as someone whose sources suggested the backfield logistics were insufficient for an actual invasion, I'm glad to see they were correct -- for now.

Sure, there can always be a pause to bring in new supplies (and give the troops a rest) -- that sort of thing happens to everyone during an invasion, even the best planned and supplied invasion possible. (I've reached Churchill's account of the first phase of Italy's invasion during WW2, in his memoirs, and sure enough after the first pulse onto the mainland there had to be a definite period of resupply before continuing -- which the Nazis took good opportunities with, as Churchill was worried they would, leading to a very nearly run defense against counterattack which almost threw the British and Americans back into the sea. And this was BEFORE Anzio!)

But you aren't supposed to have to shove your logistics up to their forming-up positions (so to speak) near the front line on an invasion, before sending them on to your invaders!

As we now suspect, Putin thought (for whatever reason) that the Ukrainian military would somehow just roll over after a nominal show of defense, which is why he was content to inflate his invasion force in the final days with green recruits but not with a proper backfield logistic support (of invasion strength, not merely for training those numbers). If all you're going to do is roll into the nation and occupy it, you don't need much more logistics than for training at the border -- arguably maybe even less, since you'll be taking control of your enemy's supplies without much hassle! What you do need is lots and lots of boots to hold the ground, but they don't need to be well-heeled mountain-class boots (so to speak).

Then opps, there's a real fight, and your maskirovka preparations to confuse your enemies about your intentions turn out to have an unexpectedly sharp double-edge. To continue the Dumbledore Gambit metaphor, you'd better have the power prepared to back up your multiple plots just in case!

Now he's learning he doesn't have the power ready to solidly win, if the Ukrainians put up a real fight, so he's falling back on what prepared power he does have: nuclear threats.

And meanwhile, he's having to shuttle fresh supplies through his ill-prepared fortified sectors (for want of a better term -- they still serve that purpose, though badly right now).

His preparations, and lack thereof, make sense when considered through an expectation that -- to quote a common saying of another famous invader of Ukraine -- all he has to do is kick down the door and the whole rotten structure will collapse.

But like that other famous invader of Ukraine, the whole rotten structure didn't collapse at all, after all.

Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn't have 16 Armies shoved up to its side of the border for at least a nominal defense plus another 70ish divisions on the way to the front from its backfield. The rotten doghouse didn't collapse when Putin kicked in the door, but it's still only a doghouse instead of a vast wooden castle: he may not be prepared to do a lot of real kicking, but it won't need as much real kicking either.  :-\

Fortunately, as with many wars, the enemy only has to be annoyed out of fighting for you to win.

Unfortunately for Putin, right now it's his own troops who are mostly being annoyed out of fighting! -- thus Putin's fallback upon forces that can't and don't get annoyed out of fighting for him. (Whether his officers in that corps are prepared to turn those keys, is hopefully another matter again for us all...)


1. Make a decision to annex a country.
2. Establish a puppet government to ask for military assistance to free their people from fascist oppressors.
3. Reject your military's plan for a systematic approach to achieve point one. Decide upon an awe and shock approach instead.
4. Have your forces invade as going to maneuveres, as your intelligence assures they will be met with flowers and songs.
5. Watch your first echelon troops take a mauling under heavy fighting, with great difficulties to achieving their first day objectives, if achieving them all, as the opponent fights as their life would depend on it. Who'd thought.

The above from Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939.

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as another tragedy, as we are learning here. Before any rosy hopes Ukraine can stand alone forever, let us conclude how history played out in part one:

6. Learn from your mistakes, allow military command to run the operation
7. Regroup, resume the attack, have the opponent in ropes in three weeks, just waiting for the final K.O. blow.
8. Have the political lead call the stops, in fear the international intervention will be too much to handle.
9. Accept a truce, take your gains, while allowing your opponent to live to fight another day.
10. Plan for that another day.

Russian military is not a joke, they were led to an unwinnable battle in day one. They will regroup. This war is getting very ugly, very ugly. Hounds of war are notoriously difficult to be called back in. If there's a truce, I have no high hopes a long lasting peace will follow.

Who'd thought I'd wake up and the Iron Curtain is back on.







Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 02, 2022, 04:41:50 AM
Quote from: steve58 on March 01, 2022, 08:05:51 PM
Quote
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that European Union members will not lend fighter jets to the war in Ukraine, after days of mixed messages from officials across Europe.

"NATO allies provide different types of military support: material, anti-tank weapons, air defense systems and other types of military equipment for Ukraine, humanitarian aid and also financial support. But NATO is not to be part of the conflict," he said in a joint appearance with Polish President Andrzej Duda at the country's Łask Air Base.

The alliance "is not going to send the troops into Ukraine or move planes into Ukrainian airspace," Stoltenberg added.

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/03/01/no-eu-countries-arent-sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/

That's a sensible move. I'm surprised the Polish government in particular didn't think of the issues their move would cause, although of the list of countries that promised aircraft Slovakia is also a member. Slovakia doesn't share a border with Russian territory, however.

NATO members poking Putin with a stick by delivering equipment like aircraft would be likely to escalate the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 02, 2022, 05:03:40 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 08:25:24 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 01, 2022, 08:21:40 PM
Can anyone suggest a good charity I could give to in support of Ukraine?

The Ukrainian gov't is accepting donations for military support - probably the most direct way to contribute: https://kyivindependent.com/national/heres-how-to-support-ukrainian-military/

The Ukrainian bank website in English: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) - https://www.icrc.org/en/where-we-work/europe-central-asia/ukraine
Your local Red Cross probably has a national donation program running.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Ian C on March 02, 2022, 05:07:29 AM
I've donated to the Ukrainian Red Cross and it's a good solid way to help.

My friend, a software game coder from California lives in Kharkiv with his wife. I've been checking in with him every day on Facebook. They've been taking a hammering with artillery and rocket strikes and now there's a major airborne assault on the city. A day ago he sent this message:

QuoteThank you Ian, we're supplied for xxxxxx, maybe more.
For the escalation, I think we have xxxx before being overwhelmed.

We're caught in a x-fire if we move - so we've bunkered down.

Bandwidth is crap, I'll try to post some cheer as sign of living -- otherwise -- been a please my good sir - been an absolute pleasure!

Stay positive, stay solid.


Then he posted this

(https://i.postimg.cc/bwF92mJc/r4whjuw6tju.jpg%5Dhttps://i.postimg.cc/bwF92mJc/r4whjuw6tju.jpg)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 02, 2022, 05:13:39 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 09:48:06 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 09:36:52 PM
The 40-mile Russian convoy is stalled 18 miles north of Kiev.  Jesus, what a sh!tshow.   :idiot2:  https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

That convoy is badly in need of some BRRRRRT.

This almost looks like bait.  The surrounding woods could be littered with SAM's.

But those roads are surrounded by mud this time of the year, so a stuck vehicle holds the entire column and that might be all there is to it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Zulu1966 on March 02, 2022, 06:04:24 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 02, 2022, 05:13:39 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 09:48:06 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 01, 2022, 09:36:52 PM
The 40-mile Russian convoy is stalled 18 miles north of Kiev.  Jesus, what a sh!tshow.   :idiot2:  https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

That convoy is badly in need of some BRRRRRT.

This almost looks like bait.  The surrounding woods could be littered with SAM's.

But those roads are surrounded by mud this time of the year, so a stuck vehicle holds the entire column and that might be all there is to it.

I think you are giving credit where it is not deserved. It just looks like a SNAFU to me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 06:49:24 AM
I almost think it looks like bait too. Almost.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on March 02, 2022, 08:21:48 AM
I wouldn't think they would send in ground pounders first.

That said, they coming in on one road and the column is that long? Couldn't you just cruise missile the hell out of it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 09:43:18 AM
I thought this was interesting, Wargaming.net, the World of Tanks company is originally a Belarus company.

They have fired their Creative Director for his pro-Russian, pro-invasion comments.

Apparently the company has "hundreds" of workers in Ukraine and they have made a large donation to the Ukrainian Red Cross.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/ (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/)

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements (https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 10:07:48 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 09:43:18 AM
I thought this was interesting, Wargaming.net, the World of Tanks company is originally a Belarus company.

They have fired their Creative Director for his pro-Russian, pro-invasion comments.

Apparently the company has "hundreds" of workers in Ukraine and they have made a large donation to the Ukrainian Red Cross.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/ (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/)

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements (https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements)

  There are a lot of Russian games out there (DCS world?  Enlisted?  War Thunder? Mius Front?  Battle of Stalingrad? etc.) that I was already cutting back on so maybe now its time for cutting back even more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 10:13:24 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 09:43:18 AM
I thought this was interesting, Wargaming.net, the World of Tanks company is originally a Belarus company.

They have fired their Creative Director for his pro-Russian, pro-invasion comments.

Apparently the company has "hundreds" of workers in Ukraine and they have made a large donation to the Ukrainian Red Cross.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/ (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/)

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements (https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements)

they've also donated $1 million euros to the Ukranian Red Cross
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 10:31:19 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 10:07:48 AM

  There are a lot of Russian games out there (DCS world?  Enlisted?  War Thunder? Mius Front?  Battle of Stalingrad? etc.) that I was already cutting back on so maybe now its time for cutting back even more.

I decided for myself that I would not buy anything new (DLCs and the like), and I would stop using any services like War Thunder.

I was happy to find that Heroes and Generals is a US based company. Not my favorite, but an OK "Enlisted" substitute.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 10:39:10 AM
I also posted a PCGamer link about the World of Tanks developer getting the can on the previous page.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 10:55:16 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 01, 2022, 10:50:01 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 01, 2022, 10:28:10 PM
Which general said earlier that if that convoy had been fighting NATO, not a single troop there would have survived the first hour?


Petraeus. 

However, he also said, and I agree, that Russia would've never fought NATO like this. 

The Russians have all the look of an army that had absolutely zero regard for its opponent.

  Heavy snow coming to parts of the Eastern Ukraine.  Seems like this might help the defenders, but I have no real idea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 10:56:26 AM
I thought it may help the Russians by freezing the ground and making moving their heavy equipment easier.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 11:11:11 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 10:56:26 AM
I thought it may help the Russians by freezing the ground and making moving their heavy equipment easier.

  Sounds plausible, though apparently its time for a grinding war of attrition so maybe the weather is less relevant:


Another western official also said that there is a sense that the conflict may be shifting to a grinding war of attrition — not the flash campaign that both
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US intelligence had suspected would cause the fall of Kyiv in a matter of days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 11:15:05 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 10:39:10 AM
I also posted a PCGamer link about the World of Tanks developer getting the can on the previous page.

Sorry, missed that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 02, 2022, 11:16:12 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 01, 2022, 01:45:57 PM
^Disagree.

NATO opening its airspace to Ukrainian aircraft actively engaged in combat with Russia would be madness and totally unjustifiable under the circumstances in my view. It is as if you are suggesting that NATO should purposefully goad Russia into a situation that would require an invocation of Article 5. The purpose of Article 5 is for it to be used as a shield, not as a sword, as you are suggesting. You are trying to weaponize a purely defensive provision of an alliance to which Ukraine is not even a member.

I don't concern myself with all the tough talk and characterizations of Putin. I concern myself only with facts and consequences. Based upon both, the EU, NATO and other civilized nations can and should respond, but twisting our military defense commitments in order to use them to escalate or trigger a larger war is an outrageous suggestion and I am glad that thus far, it does not seem that those in leadership roles are seeing this situation through such an aggressive and unlawful lens.

I am very surprised it hasn't yet spilled over.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 11:21:55 AM
really dont know if this crosses a line here, if so delete it.

[snip]
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 02, 2022, 11:28:14 AM
Yes. it crosses a line. Very obviously so.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 11:40:41 AM
You have to give it to the Ukrainians for winning the messaging (or propaganda) war, at least in the West.

So far Russian attempts to portray their side of events in the West has been pretty pathetic.

"Exhibit A" - Russel Bonner Bentley, a "vlogger" (from Texas?) apparently embedded with Russian forces:

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/national/article258928373.html (https://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/national/article258928373.html)

His video is like something out of an SNL parody, except it's not.

The article says he has been with the Russians since the 2014 Crimean invasion. They clearly have been feeding him well.

BTW, it seems his video has been removed from YouTube, but the Twitter link in the middle of the article still works.



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 02, 2022, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 10:56:26 AM
I thought it may help the Russians by freezing the ground and making moving their heavy equipment easier.

Snow is an insulator, so the ground won't freeze very deep, maybe a crust of frozen dirt.... still vey impassable. plus the snow will compact on the roads into ice... this is not good news for mechanized outfits.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 12:01:30 PM
Well I stand corrected then. I just pick things up and put them down in my limited military experience, in my defense. Closest I have been to anything mechanized is this thread. And my Subaru Forester. Which would probably do better than most of the Russian mechanized units in Ukraine up to this point.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 12:07:49 PM
an update from the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60585603?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_medium=custom7&at_custom3=%40BBCWorld&at_campaign=64&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom4=05DD4BE8-9A33-11EC-9457-71DE4744363C

the only thing I saw as inaccurate was the destruction of the Holocaust Memorial.  other reports say the blasts were close but it isnt destroyed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Zulu1966 on March 02, 2022, 12:09:11 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 10:07:48 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 09:43:18 AM
I thought this was interesting, Wargaming.net, the World of Tanks company is originally a Belarus company.

They have fired their Creative Director for his pro-Russian, pro-invasion comments.

Apparently the company has "hundreds" of workers in Ukraine and they have made a large donation to the Ukrainian Red Cross.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/ (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/)

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements (https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements)

  There are a lot of Russian games out there (DCS world?  Enlisted?  War Thunder? Mius Front?  Battle of Stalingrad? etc.) that I was already cutting back on so maybe now its time for cutting back even more.

Muis Front is actually Ukrainian  so go buy ALL of that. Dont know about the others.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 02, 2022, 12:13:08 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 12:01:30 PM
Well I stand corrected then. I just pick things up and put them down in my limited military experience, in my defense. Closest I have been to anything mechanized is this thread. And my Subaru Forester. Which would probably do better than most of the Russian mechanized units in Ukraine up to this point.

Canucks have direct experience with things such as this.

We should be sending the Ukraines non-military equipment such as this:

(https://cdn.forestry.com/static/uploads/2017/06/Irum-TAF-2012-2.jpg)

they could steal all the stuck/broke down Russian equipment...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 02, 2022, 12:14:24 PM
For those who don't know... that's a Forest Industry Log Skidder
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 12:19:46 PM
and who doesnt love a day skidding logs in a Canadistanian forest?  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 02, 2022, 12:26:34 PM
Wasn't that an Olympic Event this time around? I forget.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 12:30:48 PM
from the Moscow Times twitter feed:

Some 498 Russian service personnel have been killed in fighting in Ukraine, the country's defense ministry said, in the first official statement of Russian losses since the war began. Another 1,597 have been injured.

For days, Russian officials claimed they had suffered no casualties in the fighting, despite Ukrainian statements that they had killed more than 5,000 Russian fighters.

Russia's defense ministry also said it had killed 2,870 Ukrainians and injured around 3,700. Russia said it had captured 572 Ukrainians as prisoners of war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 12:32:28 PM
remind me again what the formula is for russian casualty reporting.
do we multiply by 5 or 10?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 12:34:14 PM
todays updates Ukrainian numbers:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FM2_dQlWUAonzBm?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 12:42:44 PM
also from what Ive seen the Uk Air Force got back an Su-27 that for some unknown reason landed in Romania

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/romania-returns-su-27-ukraine-air-force
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 12:46:43 PM
Quote from: Zulu1966 on March 02, 2022, 12:09:11 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 10:07:48 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 09:43:18 AM
I thought this was interesting, Wargaming.net, the World of Tanks company is originally a Belarus company.

They have fired their Creative Director for his pro-Russian, pro-invasion comments.

Apparently the company has "hundreds" of workers in Ukraine and they have made a large donation to the Ukrainian Red Cross.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/ (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/)

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements (https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements)

  There are a lot of Russian games out there (DCS world?  Enlisted?  War Thunder? Mius Front?  Battle of Stalingrad? etc.) that I was already cutting back on so maybe now its time for cutting back even more.

Muis Front is actually Ukrainian  so go buy ALL of that. Dont know about the others.

  That's good.  I'm pretty fond of Mius Front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 02, 2022, 12:48:47 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 12:42:44 PM
also from what Ive seen the Uk Air Force got back an Su-27 that for some unknown reason landed in Romania

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/romania-returns-su-27-ukraine-air-force

I thought crew would normally be interned and equipment confiscated for the duration of hostilities, after arriving in a neutral country.

In the part I can read without a subscription, it's not clear if the pilot deserted or simply couldn't return to his base due to Russian missile/air strikes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 12:56:26 PM
missile attacks on airbases the first night seems to be the reason.
it was also escorted, unarmed, back to the border by Mig-21s.  it had landed fully loaded with air to air missiles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 02, 2022, 01:01:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 12:32:28 PM
remind me again what the formula is for russian casualty reporting.
do we multiply by 5 or 10?

I've seen several reports that the Russians have/use field crematoriums to hide their actual body counts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 01:06:30 PM
Field crematoriums? Jesus.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 01:07:14 PM
Ive seen a photo of one those trucks that got captured.  ???

heres a question for the mods...  theres a lot of graphic footage coming out now after the last few days of arty and missile strikes.
whats the policy of posting those here?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 01:12:12 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 01:06:30 PM
Field crematoriums? Jesus.

just google it
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 02, 2022, 01:18:37 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 01:07:14 PM
Ive seen a photo of one those trucks that got captured.  ???

heres a question for the mods...  theres a lot of graphic footage coming out now after the last few days of arty and missile strikes.
whats the policy of posting those here?

I don't think it is necessary to post gratuitously violent or graphic imagery. Please use your best judgment, and if you simply can't help yourself, at least post a NSFW warning or hide it behind a spoiler alert...like this...

[spoiler](https://iconicphotos.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/johnny-cash-finger-2.jpg?w=809)[/spoiler]
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 01:22:08 PM
^Hahaha

My imagination is doing a good enough job on field crematoriums, no need for The Google.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on March 02, 2022, 01:27:54 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 02, 2022, 01:18:37 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 01:07:14 PM
Ive seen a photo of one those trucks that got captured.  ???

heres a question for the mods...  theres a lot of graphic footage coming out now after the last few days of arty and missile strikes.
whats the policy of posting those here?

I don't think it is necessary to post gratuitously violent or graphic imagery. Please use your best judgment, and if you simply can't help yourself, at least post a NSFW warning or hide it behind a spoiler alert...like this...

[spoiler](https://iconicphotos.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/johnny-cash-finger-2.jpg?w=809)[/spoiler]
Best spoiler....ever
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 02, 2022, 02:08:36 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 10:07:48 AM

  There are a lot of Russian games out there (DCS world?  Enlisted?  War Thunder? Mius Front?  Battle of Stalingrad? etc.) that I was already cutting back on so maybe now its time for cutting back even more.

For DCS, Eagle Dynamics was founded in Moscow but they operate out of Switzerland now.  During their Russian phase they were a division of SSI.  They have had some shady dealings in some of the technical data they'd acquired ending up in the hands of the Russian military.

Enlisted is developed by Darkflow, a Latvian developer. 

Enlisted's publisher and War Thunder's developer, Gaijin has a Russian division but they're headquartered in Hungary.  Its two founders were from Moscow but they started the company in Germany.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 02:27:17 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 02, 2022, 02:08:36 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 10:07:48 AM

  There are a lot of Russian games out there (DCS world?  Enlisted?  War Thunder? Mius Front?  Battle of Stalingrad? etc.) that I was already cutting back on so maybe now its time for cutting back even more.

For DCS, Eagle Dynamics was founded in Moscow but they operate out of Switzerland now.  During their Russian phase they were a division of SSI.  They have had some shady dealings in some of the technical data they'd acquired ending up in the hands of the Russian military.

Enlisted is developed by Darkflow, a Latvian developer. 

Enlisted's publisher and War Thunder's developer, Gaijin has a Russian division but they're headquartered in Hungary.  Its two founders were from Moscow but they started the company in Germany.

Thanks!  That's mostly good news!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 02:45:24 PM
So wait a minute.

For some unexplained reason a Ukrainian Su-27 lands fully armed in Rumania after being escorted by Rumanian fighter jets.

Then it's allowed to go home with it's full compliment of armament?

Correct me if I'm wrong but in wars past a belligerent who ends up stranded in a neutral country pretty much sit out the rest of the war there no?  Have the rules changed now?  If so why didn't Russia condemn and then declare war on Rumania?  Is Rumania a NATO member? 

There are a lot of things bothering me about this war that don't seem to have a precedent. 

When I was a kid we used to fight wars by the Geneva Convention rules.  Guess all gloves are off these days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 02, 2022, 02:47:54 PM
Incidentally, W8 plays H&G a lot, Az. I could re-install that and we'd have a three-man team.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 02, 2022, 02:50:00 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 01:06:30 PM
Field crematoriums? Jesus.
I saw those several days ago on one of the big news channels, maybe Fox or Sky News.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 02:51:02 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 02, 2022, 02:47:54 PM
Incidentally, W8 plays H&G a lot, Az. I could re-install that and we'd have a three-man team.  :coolsmiley:

That would be awesome!  Are you in the right thread though Jason? 

In any case shameless plug here.  If you all want to be a part of the fun I'd be happy to show you the ropes in H&G.   :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 03:21:25 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 02:51:02 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 02, 2022, 02:47:54 PM
Incidentally, W8 plays H&G a lot, Az. I could re-install that and we'd have a three-man team.  :coolsmiley:

That would be awesome!  Are you in the right thread though Jason? 

In any case shameless plug here.  If you all want to be a part of the fun I'd be happy to show you the ropes in H&G.   :)

Sounds good. Will work with you guys off-line
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 03:36:16 PM
Ukraine is claiming that a tip-off from "representatives" of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), helped foil and kill Chechen assassins going after Zelensky over the weekend.

If true...that's gotta be irritating and maybe even scary for Putin. His own security service (the equivalent of the FBI) helping the Ukrainians.

If not true...what a way to mess with Putin's head.

or maybe Putin is the ultimate puppet master here...doing real Dr. Evil sh$t. Giving up the Chechens so the Ukrainians trust the "FSB" source for a future "real" plot... 

or maybe the Ukrainians know this, and outed the fake "FSB" source to let Putin know that they know...

or maybe....  or maybe.... Channeling Tom Clancy...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569945/Disaffected-Russian-FSB-agents-tipped-Ukraine-Chechen-hit-squad-sent-kill-Zelensky.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569945/Disaffected-Russian-FSB-agents-tipped-Ukraine-Chechen-hit-squad-sent-kill-Zelensky.html)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 03:46:55 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 02:45:24 PM
So wait a minute.
For some unexplained reason a Ukrainian Su-27 lands fully armed in Rumania after being escorted by Rumanian fighter jets.
Then it's allowed to go home with it's full compliment of armament?
Correct me if I'm wrong but in wars past a belligerent who ends up stranded in a neutral country pretty much sit out the rest of the war there no?  Have the rules changed now?  If so why didn't Russia condemn and then declare war on Rumania?  Is Rumania a NATO member? 

no.
the plane was fully loaded when it landed and sent back unarmed and under escort.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 02, 2022, 03:56:35 PM
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44514/su-27-returning-from-romania-will-likely-be-last-fighter-ukraine-will-get-for-some-time (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44514/su-27-returning-from-romania-will-likely-be-last-fighter-ukraine-will-get-for-some-time)

An article with more information on the matter. They also have an article about the aircraft deliveries from a number of countries that are now no longer going to happen.

It doesn't mention anything about the legal side of things though. As I wrote before, I thought the procedure would be that the pilot is interned and the aircraft confiscated/held until the end of hostilities.

Even without armament, NATO-member Romania is knowingly sending pilot and plane back into a war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 04:00:48 PM
in an unarmed airplane.

also of note is that Turkey is still sending drones to Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 02, 2022, 04:04:54 PM
Wow, I just heard the former Ukrainian Finance Minister and Zelensky campaign manager asking for different kinds of help. One of the things he emphasized was for the West to set up and publicize a support system for RUSSIAN officers and men who wanted out of the fighting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 02, 2022, 04:10:30 PM
Quote from: solops on March 02, 2022, 04:04:54 PM
Wow, I just heard the former Ukrainian Finance Minister asking for different kinds of help. One of the things he emphasized was for the West to set up and publicize a support system for RUSSIAN officers and men who wanted out of the fighting.

Makes perfect sense given all the reports of low morale and young conscripts being lied to about the nature of the operation.  Every soldier you take out of the fight makes a difference whether it's through injury or dropping arms.  There are a lot of videos of Ukrainian civilians giving food, drinks, and blankets to surrendered Russian troops and letting them call home on borrowed cell phones.  The Ukrainian government is also offering amnesty and roughly $40,000 in Rubles to Russians who surrender.  Really, as far as psyops go they're absolutely kicking ass.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 04:17:19 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 02, 2022, 03:56:35 PM
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44514/su-27-returning-from-romania-will-likely-be-last-fighter-ukraine-will-get-for-some-time (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44514/su-27-returning-from-romania-will-likely-be-last-fighter-ukraine-will-get-for-some-time)

An article with more information on the matter. They also have an article about the aircraft deliveries from a number of countries that are now no longer going to happen.

It doesn't mention anything about the legal side of things though. As I wrote before, I thought the procedure would be that the pilot is interned and the aircraft confiscated/held until the end of hostilities.

Even without armament, NATO-member Romania is knowingly sending pilot and plane back into a war.

  Since Russia hasn't officially declared war, it should be perfectly legal for anyone to send anything they want any way they want into Ukraine.  However, Turkey has decided it is a war and that would
enable them to close the straits if they want.  NATO is probably considering the fact that closing the straits will do a lot more damage to Russia than a few planes one way or another so taking it as a de facto war and using that circumstance to exclude planes opens the way to closing the straits on the same grounds -- ie that it is a war that is going on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 02, 2022, 04:23:05 PM
Edit: I see that whilst typing this, others made some of the same points. My compliments on the discussion, gentlemen, everybody remains sharp.

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 04:00:48 PM
in an unarmed airplane.

also of note is that Turkey is still sending drones to Ukraine.

Pilot and plane still belong to a nation engaged in conflict with the Russian army.

Turkish companies have been delivering arms to Ukraine for a while now, they can just say those drones are the next batch. Those are not suddenly delivered out of nowhere, like most of the equipment supplied by European countries.

Turkey is trying not to step on anyone's toes with the arms trade and its interpretation of the Montreux Convention regarding the Dardanelles and Bosporus Straits.

QuoteWow, I just heard the former Ukrainian Finance Minister and Zelensky campaign manager asking for different kinds of help. One of the things he emphasized was for the West to set up and publicize a support system for RUSSIAN officers and men who wanted out of the fighting.

Ukraine is offering amnesty and money to Russian soldiers who surrender.

-

In other news, it seems Kherson is finally about to fall. The Ukrainian forces in the area have pulled back to Mykolaiv on the Southern Bug river, which is a formidable obstacle in that area.

The Russian forces from the Crimea seem to be making the most noteworthy progress, and progress that will be difficult to contain for the Ukrainian army if Kherson is indeed about to fall as the forces can go west, north or east along either bank of the Dnieper.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 04:25:32 PM
former Uk president is giving comments with a brand new British MRAP behind him.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 02, 2022, 04:26:58 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 02:27:17 PM

Thanks!  That's mostly good news!

I dug in a bit on a few other game/hardware companies that are relevant to Grogs interests. 

Virpil is in Belarus, but they made some very ballsy Pro-Ukraine moves, including changing their logo to Ukrainian colors with a yellow peace dove. That's a big move for a not so safe for free speech country as Belarus. 

1C and 1C-777 are Russian (They have a "HQ" in Cyprus for tax purposes) and I haven't seen many statements from them beyond banning the discussion of the war on their forums.

VKB is now headquartered fully in China. 

As for should anyone buy from Russian based or affiliated game companies?  I don't know.  These are small independent developers that may have opinions that run contrary to Putin's, even if they don't feel able to express them. 

Also consider some of these products, like DCS, aren't just the parent company, but also employ and benefit a lot of studios that are outside their scope.

How much will not buying their products help in brining an end to the war?  Not sure if there's a quantifiable answer to that but I'd imagine it's small or none.  Still, there's the argument that everyone that applies a squeeze no matter how small counts,  even if it hurts people who might be on your side. 

It's a hard prospect.  I don't know if there's a clear answer for everyone.

I think at this point everyone should do what they feel is right. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 02, 2022, 04:42:06 PM
I also heard that Ukraine will release Russian POWs to their mothers if they come to Ukraine to get them.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-it-will-free-russian-pows-if-their-mothers-come-to-collect-them/ (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-it-will-free-russian-pows-if-their-mothers-come-to-collect-them/)

There is no question that Ukraine is dominating the publicity war. However, Russian advances from Crimea definitely represent the gravest threat to the Ukrainian defense and there is a possibility that it could undermine the entire defense and successes that Ukrainian forces have achieved across all other fronts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 04:43:01 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 02, 2022, 04:23:05 PM

...

Ukraine is offering amnesty and money to Russian soldiers who surrender.

...


Absolutely fascinating and I believe unprecedented.  This is just another thing that puzzles me about this invasion. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 04:45:51 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 02, 2022, 04:42:06 PM
I also heard that Ukraine will release Russian POWs to their mothers if they come to Ukraine to get them.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-it-will-free-russian-pows-if-their-mothers-come-to-collect-them/ (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-it-will-free-russian-pows-if-their-mothers-come-to-collect-them/)

There is no question that Ukraine is dominating the publicity war. However, Russian advances from Crimea definitely represent the gravest threat to the Ukrainian defense and there is a possibility that it could undermine the entire defense and successes that Ukrainian forces have achieved across all other fronts.

Think about it.  If Russia had used it's own soldiers, i.e. ethnic Russians, rather than rely on Chechens and other minorities tricked into fighting this type of thing wouldn't even exist and Kiev would have fallen within the first 24-48 hours. 

I hate to sound like a broken record but doesn't this whole thing sound fishy?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 04:45:59 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 02, 2022, 04:26:58 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 02, 2022, 02:27:17 PM

Thanks!  That's mostly good news!

I dug in a bit on a few other game/hardware companies that are relevant to Grogs interests. 

Virpil is in Belarus, but they made some very ballsy Pro-Ukraine moves, including changing their logo to Ukrainian colors with a yellow peace dove. That's a big move for a not so safe for free speech country as Belarus. 

1C and 1C-777 are Russian (They have a "HQ" in Cyprus for tax purposes) and I haven't seen many statements from them beyond banning the discussion of the war on their forums.

VKB is now headquartered fully in China. 

As for should anyone buy from Russian based or affiliated game companies?  I don't know.  These are small independent developers that may have opinions that run contrary to Putin's, even if they don't feel able to express them. 

Also consider some of these products, like DCS, aren't just the parent company, but also employ and benefit a lot of studios that are outside their scope.

How much will not buying their products help in brining an end to the war?  Not sure if there's a quantifiable answer to that but I'd imagine it's small or none.  Still, there's the argument that everyone that applies a squeeze no matter how small counts,  even if it hurts people who might be on your side. 

It's a hard prospect.  I don't know if there's a clear answer for everyone.

I think at this point everyone should do what they feel is right.

  Yeah, I wasn't thinking my purchasing would have any impact...its more of a drag on my gaming moods which are generally pursued in a vague spirit of mild amusement and
such mild amusement doesn't cope well with massive ongoing current conflicts at least in my mind where some kind of antiquarian coolness is probably the basic undertone I aim
for.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 04:57:04 PM
W8, the russians DID use their own russian soldiers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 02, 2022, 04:58:00 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 04:45:51 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 02, 2022, 04:42:06 PM
I also heard that Ukraine will release Russian POWs to their mothers if they come to Ukraine to get them.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-it-will-free-russian-pows-if-their-mothers-come-to-collect-them/ (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-it-will-free-russian-pows-if-their-mothers-come-to-collect-them/)

There is no question that Ukraine is dominating the publicity war. However, Russian advances from Crimea definitely represent the gravest threat to the Ukrainian defense and there is a possibility that it could undermine the entire defense and successes that Ukrainian forces have achieved across all other fronts.

Think about it.  If Russia had used it's own soldiers, i.e. ethnic Russians, rather than rely on Chechens and other minorities tricked into fighting this type of thing wouldn't even exist and Kiev would have fallen within the first 24-48 hours. 

I hate to sound like a broken record but doesn't this whole thing sound fishy?

Putin may have his sights on other former SSRs, like Moldova. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/lukashenkos-map-might-have-revealed-russias-strategy-in-ukraine-moldova/ar-AAUuFcF
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 04:59:25 PM
a good cover about where Germany is at right now.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 02, 2022, 05:01:02 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 04:45:51 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 02, 2022, 04:42:06 PM
I also heard that Ukraine will release Russian POWs to their mothers if they come to Ukraine to get them.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-it-will-free-russian-pows-if-their-mothers-come-to-collect-them/ (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-it-will-free-russian-pows-if-their-mothers-come-to-collect-them/)

There is no question that Ukraine is dominating the publicity war. However, Russian advances from Crimea definitely represent the gravest threat to the Ukrainian defense and there is a possibility that it could undermine the entire defense and successes that Ukrainian forces have achieved across all other fronts.

Think about it.  If Russia had used it's own soldiers, i.e. ethnic Russians, rather than rely on Chechens and other minorities tricked into fighting this type of thing wouldn't even exist and Kiev would have fallen within the first 24-48 hours. 

I hate to sound like a broken record but doesn't this whole thing sound fishy?

Well, we've seen some of this before: the First and Second Chechen War of the 1990's.

First, amateurs attempt to take the capital through a coup-de-main. That fails, badly.

After a few years of reorganization and better preparation, round 2 involves a siege and methodical destruction of the capital to the extent that it is labelled the most destroyed city on earth.

Western opinion seems to be that Putin won't do that to Kiev due to the various (family) ties between the Russians and the Ukrainians resulting from living in one state during the Soviet era, but the question remains: will the troops refuse if Putin asks them to fire away. There are already a number of videos showing rockets with submunitions being used on Kharkov, I'm not so sure any more that Putin won't go the extra mile when it comes to destruction if his "special operation" continues to go badly.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 02, 2022, 05:05:36 PM
Quote from: steve58 on March 02, 2022, 04:58:00 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 04:45:51 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 02, 2022, 04:42:06 PM
I also heard that Ukraine will release Russian POWs to their mothers if they come to Ukraine to get them.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-it-will-free-russian-pows-if-their-mothers-come-to-collect-them/ (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-it-will-free-russian-pows-if-their-mothers-come-to-collect-them/)

There is no question that Ukraine is dominating the publicity war. However, Russian advances from Crimea definitely represent the gravest threat to the Ukrainian defense and there is a possibility that it could undermine the entire defense and successes that Ukrainian forces have achieved across all other fronts.

Think about it.  If Russia had used it's own soldiers, i.e. ethnic Russians, rather than rely on Chechens and other minorities tricked into fighting this type of thing wouldn't even exist and Kiev would have fallen within the first 24-48 hours. 

I hate to sound like a broken record but doesn't this whole thing sound fishy?

Putin may have his sights on other former SSRs, like Moldova. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/lukashenkos-map-might-have-revealed-russias-strategy-in-ukraine-moldova/ar-AAUuFcF

It's a possible move, but a complicated one without victory in the Ukraine proper. Russian forces could hold the Black Sea shoreline, but that would only give them a very lengthy frontline to hold if Ukraine itself is not occupied or demilitarized.

At this point, I wouldn't be all that surprised if Putin ends up trying to take over Belarus before the end of this year. He might keep it as a buffer state, but it's pretty clear Lukashenko's no longer calling the shots in his own country since the arrival of Russian forces.

-

As a sidenote, you know you've been wargaming too much when you start typing "Soviet" instead of "Russian" and have to correct it a couple of times.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 05:08:38 PM
no.  no, you dont have to correct anything comrade,  soviet is completely correct.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 05:16:46 PM
^TEEHEE

Putin doesn't have to invade or violently take over Belarus as they are already his lapdog.

Moldova...if Ukraine fell (in pieces or altogether) Moldova would be under extremely serious threat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 05:29:51 PM
Good article on how Finnish-style military training and preparation could have bolstered Ukrainian defense:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/finlands-model-resisting-russian-aggression/623334/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 06:43:58 PM
the Atlantic seems to have some really good articles!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 06:49:55 PM
what are the chances of russia being disarmed of nukes after this is done?
I understand that the US would also have to give up a huge number to get this done.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 02, 2022, 07:48:35 PM
The Atlantic is an excellent magazine.  It leans slightly left, but does a good job of taking on issues from a nonpartisan angle, so we actually learn some things and maybe even develop some ideas for a path forward.  It's the closest thing that North America has to The Economist.

There is NO WAY that Russia disarms its nuclear arsenal without regime change.  Even then, it's almost totally unlikely.  It's the only thing they have left that makes them relevant on the global stage. 

It's also the only thing THEY control that keeps other countries from ever invading them.  The historical trauma from brutal occupations runs so deep in that culture, I don't ever see them giving that up.  JMHO, obviously.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 02, 2022, 07:51:02 PM
Who the hell would trust Putin if he said he had no nukes? I wouldn't trust the bastard if he told me he had no steely, piercing eyes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 09:07:52 PM
I really only see Russia getting rid of their nukes by launching them at us.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 09:11:43 PM
So I was chatting on the phone with a friend this evening and he brought up a good point to what has been disturbing me about this whole affair.
He said that Putin probably put all his second rate equipment and troops on the border just to scare the west into giving him what he wanted.  Since the west really didn't back down (or offer some sort of reconcilliation for that matter) Putin decided to actually invade then.  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 02, 2022, 10:17:15 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 09:11:43 PM
So I was chatting on the phone with a friend this evening and he brought up a good point to what has been disturbing me about this whole affair.
He said that Putin probably put all his second rate equipment and troops on the border just to scare the west into giving him what he wanted.  Since the west really didn't back down (or offer some sort of reconcilliation for that matter) Putin decided to actually invade then.  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

I don't really agree with that at all. 

Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine five years ago.  NATO was just a red herring. 

He wants to restore the RUBK power axis, Russia/Belarus/Ukraine/Kazakhstan.   The only way this could've been avoided is if the Euromaidan dominated government had collapsed and been replaced by a pro-Putin stooge.

The Russians have been famous for putting its second tier troops in harms way to support its front line formations as far as they've had a military history.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 03, 2022, 01:31:04 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 09:07:52 PM
I really only see Russia getting rid of their nukes by launching them at us.
+1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 03, 2022, 04:22:19 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2022, 03:36:16 PM
Ukraine is claiming that a tip-off from "representatives" of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), helped foil and kill Chechen assassins going after Zelensky over the weekend.

If true...that's gotta be irritating and maybe even scary for Putin. His own security service (the equivalent of the FBI) helping the Ukrainians.

(https://www.irishtimes.com/polopoly_fs/1.4814080.1646042280!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/box_620_330/image.jpg)

Maybe the distance isn't because of Covid but for fear of an attack on him ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 03, 2022, 05:06:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 04:59:25 PM
a good cover about where Germany is at right now.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/

there is a concerning story behind this.

German government, with its fresh left-green and neo-liberal coalition acted in the beginning of the crisis as has to be expected.

then last Saturday Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausea visited Scholz in person! in his office in Berlin, hours later he released 1/4 of the German stockpile of Stingers and Fausts to be donated to the Ukraine and hold his historic speech with the 180 degree change of German stance next morn. a change that if he had only argumented mildly in that direction in an interview/talkshow a day before would have let to an instant revolt in his sozial-democratic party, and the Greens would have gone apeshit and it would have been the end of the coalition and new elections. The fact that the Greens accepeted this in that night too without the usual  week/month long discussions and firce resistance  also prove the sheer magnitude of that pardigm change     

My conclusion: there must be a valid and shockingly grave intelligence report (with an obviously beyond 'cosmic' secret level classification to protect the source) that both Presidents briefed Scholz about on Saturday, in person! go figure both and in person !

And that changed it all.     

I really would like to take a glipms on that intel
(i guess its from an Baltic agent in Putins inner circle, or a Russian General would like to save the real Russia as a true patriot that he is, and the world too, who leaked Putins playbook)   

PS: 2700 Strela2 (known as SA7 Grail)   anti air manpads on the way   
 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Yskonyn on March 03, 2022, 05:08:59 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 09:11:43 PM
  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

I am not following you at all. Could you elaborate on how exactly it might feel like the West wanted this?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 03, 2022, 06:35:24 AM
Quote from: MikeGER on March 03, 2022, 05:06:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2022, 04:59:25 PM
a good cover about where Germany is at right now.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/

there is a concerning story behind this.

German government, with its fresh left-green and neo-liberal coalition acted in the beginning of the crisis as has to be expected.

then last Saturday Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausea visited Scholz in person! in his office in Berlin, hours later he released 1/4 of the German stockpile of Stingers and Fausts to be donated to the Ukraine and hold his historic speech with the 180 degree change of German stance next morn. a change that if he had only argumented mildly in that direction in an interview/talkshow a day before would have let to an instant revolt in his sozial-democratic party, and the Greens would have gone apeshit and it would have been the end of the coalition and new elections. The fact that the Greens accepeted this in that night too without the usual  week/month long discussions and firce resistance  also prove the sheer magnitude of that pardigm change     

My conclusion: there must be a valid and shockingly grave intelligence report (with an obviously beyond 'cosmic' secret level classification to protect the source) that both Presidents briefed Scholz about on Saturday, in person! go figure both and in person !

And that changed it all.     

I really would like to take a glipms on that intel
(i guess its from an Baltic agent in Putins inner circle, or a Russian General would like to save the real Russia as a true patriot that he is, and the world too, who leaked Putins playbook)   

PS: 2700 Strela2 (known as SA7 Grail)   anti air manpads on the way   


It will take years for the increased spending to result in an overall higher state of readiness, in any EU country. If there's an immediate threat, which seems to be what you suggest, the increased spending wouldn't do anything about it.

Considering the nature of German (and, for example, Dutch) coalition governments, if the head of state or prime minister wants to get anything done it can be best to just announce a change and wait for everybody to hop on the bandwagon. Instead of talking about it for years.

In Dutch media, the move by Scholtz is compared to Kohl's speech about future reunification of Germany. Instead of first talking about it for years, it came down to: "this is our goal, and we'll reach it by following a programme that I'll describe".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 03, 2022, 08:23:31 AM
Can you do us a favor ?

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-say-china-asked-russia-delay-ukraine-war-until-after-beijing-2022-03-02/

Senior Chinese officials told senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, the New York Times reported, quoting Biden administration officials and a European official who cited a Western intelligence report.


Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said, "The claims mentioned in the relevant reports are speculations without any basis, and are intended to blame-shift and smear China."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 08:24:51 AM
video of another failed russian attack:

(https://media2.giphy.com/media/3ohuPel436qciQZ8fC/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 03, 2022, 09:06:04 AM
Russia made some pretty significant gains yesterday and I think the pace of the invasion is going to pick-up over the next several days.

Quote
Key Takeaways March 2

    Russian forces resumed offensive operations against Kyiv's western outskirts on March 2 after pausing for resupply from February 27 to March 1 but failed to secure any additional territory.

    Russian forces launched offensive operations in Zhytomyr Oblast, expanding their envelopment of Kyiv further west than ISW previously assessed—likely to outflank stronger-than-anticipated Ukrainian resistance and limited Ukrainian counterattacks in Kyiv's outskirts.

    Russian forces renewed advances toward northeastern Kyiv on March 2, reaching a line approximately 65km from the city center on that axis.

    Russian forces assaulted central Kharkiv and continued to heavily bombard the city on March 2, likely increasing civilian casualties.

    Russian forces fully encircled Mariupol as of March 2 and are conducting a deliberate campaign to destroy critical civilian infrastructure and residential areas in a likely attempt to force the city to surrender.

    Russian forces continued to reduce pockets of Ukrainian resistance in Kherson on March 2 and will likely secure the city in the next 24 hours if they have not done so already.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 09:47:55 AM
JSTAR, Rivet Joint and Awac are all up over Poland now.
and an E-6 is running around the SE US.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 03, 2022, 10:07:11 AM
I think a topic that has not been addressed is the economic action of the war and the longer term implications.

Specifically I am talking about how unplugging Russia from SWIFT, the dominance of the dollar and preventing Russia to access their war chest is playing out in China right now.
If China invaded Taiwan there would presumably be a similar level of sanctions/financial actions.  What is China going to do to buffer its economy?
 
IMO they will need to integrate their buying of US dollars more closely with external to the US banks to prevent being cut off from them.  Additionally Taiwan is a major trading partner for the US so ranking 9th on the trading list for the US vs Ukraine 67th so the US has to be careful how the sanctions are implemented since they dont want to damage Taiwan.

Overall I think the US will soon be drafting a new military unit - an economic battalion of financial experts that can swiftly deploy sanctions and disrupt economies.

Con

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 03, 2022, 10:23:46 AM
Quote from: Con on March 03, 2022, 10:07:11 AM
Specifically I am talking about unplugging Russia from SWIFT

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-excludes-seven-russian-banks-swift-official-journal-2022-03-02/

The European Union said on Wednesday it was excluding seven Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system, but stopped short of including those handling energy payments, in the latest sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Sberbank (SBER.MM), Russia's largest lender, and Gazprombank were not included because they are the main channels for payments for Russian oil and gas, which EU countries are still buying despite the conflict in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 10:54:02 AM
Quote from: Yskonyn on March 03, 2022, 05:08:59 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 09:11:43 PM
  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

I am not following you at all. Could you elaborate on how exactly it might feel like the West wanted this?

The New World Order or the World Economic Forum. 
Look at what happened in Canada.  The truckers had all of their financial assets frozen by Trudeau.  No due process, no trial, but instead a decision to shut undesirable people out of society and life.  If the new norm now is shutting down anyone who doesn't follow the party line then why can't this be applied at the macro level or in other words against a world leader who won't play ball nicely. 

Keep in mind NATO said they would never expand eastward after the collapse of the USSR but look what they have done.  I'm not justifying what Putin is doing but if one get's inside the head of a person you can see why they think and act they way they do.  He's being pushed into a corner intentionally for some reason. 

We don't know what's really happening there but everything is not what it seems to be. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 10:57:15 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 02, 2022, 10:17:15 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 09:11:43 PM
So I was chatting on the phone with a friend this evening and he brought up a good point to what has been disturbing me about this whole affair.
He said that Putin probably put all his second rate equipment and troops on the border just to scare the west into giving him what he wanted.  Since the west really didn't back down (or offer some sort of reconcilliation for that matter) Putin decided to actually invade then.  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

I don't really agree with that at all. 

Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine five years ago.  NATO was just a red herring. 

He wants to restore the RUBK power axis, Russia/Belarus/Ukraine/Kazakhstan.   The only way this could've been avoided is if the Euromaidan dominated government had collapsed and been replaced by a pro-Putin stooge.

The Russians have been famous for putting its second tier troops in harms way to support its front line formations as far as they've had a military history.

True I agree this has been planned all along.  But then Trump.  The elites had to delay their dastardly plans because Trump wouldn't put up with that nonsense.  Now the EU has a muppet in the US that they know they can get to do their bidding. 

I'm telling you there is something else going on here and it's nefarious. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 11:03:34 AM
I do know that NATO and the US did agree to not push further eastward and then did so. I don't know if it's anything more or less bad than that. And Putin's health, mental and physical, definitely appears to be failing. I do think that has a lot to do with it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 11:25:01 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 10:57:15 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 02, 2022, 10:17:15 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 02, 2022, 09:11:43 PM
So I was chatting on the phone with a friend this evening and he brought up a good point to what has been disturbing me about this whole affair.
He said that Putin probably put all his second rate equipment and troops on the border just to scare the west into giving him what he wanted.  Since the west really didn't back down (or offer some sort of reconcilliation for that matter) Putin decided to actually invade then.  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

I don't really agree with that at all. 

Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine five years ago.  NATO was just a red herring. 

He wants to restore the RUBK power axis, Russia/Belarus/Ukraine/Kazakhstan.   The only way this could've been avoided is if the Euromaidan dominated government had collapsed and been replaced by a pro-Putin stooge.

The Russians have been famous for putting its second tier troops in harms way to support its front line formations as far as they've had a military history.

True I agree this has been planned all along.  But then Trump.  The elites had to delay their dastardly plans because Trump wouldn't put up with that nonsense.  Now the EU has a muppet in the US that they know they can get to do their bidding. 

I'm telling you there is something else going on here and it's nefarious.

:DD ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 12:05:21 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 10:57:15 AM

True I agree this has been planned all along.  But then Trump.  The elites had to delay their dastardly plans because Trump wouldn't put up with that nonsense.  Now the EU has a muppet in the US that they know they can get to do their bidding. 

I'm telling you there is something else going on here and it's nefarious.

ya, keep the pro trump bs out of this.  if I cant post along these lines why are you?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 12:13:11 PM
I *gently* placed a very soft warning above. Maybe too subtle?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 03, 2022, 12:29:02 PM
A dispassionate analysis of what Putin will do in Ukraine as well as insight into his mindset by Daniel Hoffman, " for years one of the CIA's top experts on Russia"
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/putin-is-determined-to-burn-down-ukraines-house-former-cia-operative-says-141203665.html
QuoteRussia has a different view of collateral damage, and they have a different view of casualties for their own. In our rules of engagement in the U.S., we do the best we possibly can not to strike civilian targets. For the Russians, just look at the battle of Stalingrad. That's kind of the way Vladimir Putin sees the world. Think about the poisoning of [Russian dissident Alexander] Litvinenko with radioactive polonium-210. He created a human dirty bomb. There just is an "ends justify whatever means you want to use." That's kind of the way that they do things.

And I'll just tell you a quick story. I asked once, a long time ago, a Russian intelligence officer, I asked him, "What is it about your neighbors and your tactics for dealing with them?" And he said to me, "Listen, let's just say you have a really nice house, and I don't. My house is a crappy house. I'm just gonna go burn yours down. That's kind of the way we think."

A further article talks about the support the US provided to Ukraine prior to invasion.  https://ca.news.yahoo.com/how-the-us-helped-ukraine-prepare-for-a-russian-invasion-210407079.html
QuoteIn addition to cybersecurity help, the U.S. has provided advanced military training to elite Ukrainian military and special operations units. A small contingent of U.S. special operations and other military personnel were based in Ukraine to train their counterparts there, though they were were recently evacuated by the Pentagon because of the looming threat of a Russian invasion.

The CIA has also provided secret training to Ukrainian security officials. In 2015, the agency began sending a small cohort of paramilitary officers to the eastern front to help advise Ukrainian forces there, former U.S. intelligence officials told Yahoo News.

One area where U.S. paramilitary trainers have been focused on helping shore up defenses against a Russian strike or occupation is the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, according to a former CIA executive.

The diplomatic correspondent of the BBC writes on five ways the war might end.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60602936
QuoteAmid the fog of war, it can be hard to see the way forward. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Most are bleak.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 12:37:15 PM
"Listen, let's just say you have a really nice house, and I don't. My house is a crappy house. I'm just gonna go burn yours down. That's kind of the way we think."

Great guys.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 12:45:53 PM
This is why it makes me really mad when people want to smugly compare American military incursions with Russian ones.  We may have a shitty track record of collateral damage and civilian casualties, but nothing on the level of what the Russians are casually capable of.  I don't recall Fallujah looking like Grozny.

Sorry if this is reaching into R&P turf but I figure I'm mostly preaching the choir anyways.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 12:48:44 PM
^I agree. I don't think any nation in history has at least attempted to avoid civilian casualties more so than the U.S. At least the Russians know what they are.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 03, 2022, 01:02:30 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 12:48:44 PM
^I agree. I don't think any nation in history has at least attempted to avoid civilian casualties more so than the U.S. At least the Russians know what they are.

While the US has been good, Israel (especially for the past 40+ years) has been particularly noteworthy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 03, 2022, 01:04:28 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 03, 2022, 01:02:30 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 12:48:44 PM
^I agree. I don't think any nation in history has at least attempted to avoid civilian casualties more so than the U.S. At least the Russians know what they are.

While the US has been good, Israel (especially for the past 40+ years) has been particularly noteworthy.

+1. They actually make phone calls before dropping bombs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 01:06:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 12:05:21 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 10:57:15 AM

True I agree this has been planned all along.  But then Trump.  The elites had to delay their dastardly plans because Trump wouldn't put up with that nonsense.  Now the EU has a muppet in the US that they know they can get to do their bidding. 

I'm telling you there is something else going on here and it's nefarious.

ya, keep the pro trump bs out of this.  if I cant post along these lines why are you?

No don't get me wrong.  I'm not pro trump. I'm not pro any man actually.  I'm just commenting on things that happened.  Using it for comparison to what is going on now. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 03, 2022, 01:08:21 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 01:06:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 12:05:21 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 10:57:15 AM

True I agree this has been planned all along.  But then Trump.  The elites had to delay their dastardly plans because Trump wouldn't put up with that nonsense.  Now the EU has a muppet in the US that they know they can get to do their bidding. 

I'm telling you there is something else going on here and it's nefarious.

ya, keep the pro trump bs out of this.  if I cant post along these lines why are you?

No don't get me wrong.  I'm not pro trump. I'm not pro any man actually.  I'm just commenting on things that happened.  Using it for comparison to what is going on now.

It looks pretty pro Trump anti Biden to me. Let's move on and refrain.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:16:35 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 09:47:55 AM
JSTAR, Rivet Joint and Awac are all up over Poland now.
and an E-6 is running around the SE US.

I bet they are providing intel for the Ukrainians.  I think we should send drones an say the are Ukrainians.  Also what about mercenaries ?  We should be promoting a non nation affiliated merc army.  Also let's see a flying tigers to Ukraine.  We have plenty of relic f16s and a10s to donate along with volunteers.  Let's see what a shark mouthed merc a10 would do to that 40 mile convoy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 01:21:25 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:16:35 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 09:47:55 AM
JSTAR, Rivet Joint and Awac are all up over Poland now.
and an E-6 is running around the SE US.

I bet they are providing intel for the Ukrainians.  I think we should send drones an say the are Ukrainians.  Also what about mercenaries ?  We should be promoting a non nation affiliated merc army.  Also let's see a flying tigers to Ukraine.  We have plenty of relic f16s and a10s to donate along with volunteers.  Let's see what a shark mouthed merc a10 would do to that 40 mile convoy.

Yes, let's hurry up and escalate this to World War 3 so we can get nuked as fast as possible.   :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 03, 2022, 01:22:25 PM
Not saying I advocate this since Russia is obviously one disregulating leader away from nuclear war. But if you wanted to really put the pressure in them do the following
Have the Japanese start building an amphib force to take the Kuril Islands.
Soviet force projection is in a real bad way right now. They could prob waltz in.
Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:23:13 PM
And that is exactly what Putin's betting on looks like we made his bet good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:25:02 PM
I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 01:26:10 PM
Forgot about Israel. I always assumed that JH made those pre-bombing calls for them too, btw.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 03, 2022, 01:26:22 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:16:35 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 09:47:55 AM
JSTAR, Rivet Joint and Awac are all up over Poland now.
and an E-6 is running around the SE US.

I bet they are providing intel for the Ukrainians.  I think we should send drones an say the are Ukrainians.  Also what about mercenaries ?  We should be promoting a non nation affiliated merc army.  Also let's see a flying tigers to Ukraine.  We have plenty of relic f16s and a10s to donate along with volunteers.  Let's see what a shark mouthed merc a10 would do to that 40 mile convoy.

The reason the remnants of the Ukrainian Air Force are not attacking is that Russian army formations have extensive anti-air protection.  Something neglected in NATO ground formations.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 01:27:34 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:25:02 PM
I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?

What makes you so sure of this?  If an unstable individual is holding a gun to your head, finger on the trigger, and the police have guns fixed on him, would you want the police to assume he's not serious and hurry up and escalate the violence?  Do you think if Hitler had access to nuclear weapons in May of 1945, he wouldn't have used them?  The last thing we want to do is back a psychopathic dictator with access to a nuclear arsenal into a corner in which he feels he has nothing left to lose.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 01:28:12 PM
I divorced myself from politics back in 2016. 

Now I care more on what is happening in this world between elites and the common man.  Politics is just a tool the elites use to divide us.  Don't fall for it. 

Maybe I didn't express my thoughts the way I intended but I'm not here to glorify any one man or degrade another.  If I use colorful language it's to illustrate a point.  Like Spock, I have no emotion for politics.  It's all bs anyways.

Yes let's refrain from the politics.  This is a good thread talking about world events.  No need to bring in R&P stuff in here.   8)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 01:29:22 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 01:28:12 PM
I divorced myself from politics back in 2016. 

Now I care more on what is happening in this world between elites and the common man.  Politics is just a tool the elites use to divide us.  Don't fall for it. 

Maybe I didn't express my thoughts the way I intended but I'm not here to glorify any one man or degrade another.  If I use colorful language it's to illustrate a point.  Like Spock, I have no emotion for politics.  It's all bs anyways.

Yes let's refrain from the politics.  This is a good thread talking about world events.  No need to bring in R&P stuff in here.   8)

Please, you're not fooling anyone with your high-minded esoteric BS.  Just because you're blind to your own political leanings doesn't mean it's not there on display for all to see.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 01:30:51 PM
^I'm sorry.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 03, 2022, 01:31:20 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 01:27:34 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:25:02 PM
I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?

What makes you so sure of this?  If an unstable individual is holding a gun to your head, finger on the trigger, and the police have guns fixed on him, would you want the police to assume he's not serious and hurry up and escalate the violence?  Do you think if Hitler had access to nuclear weapons in May of 1945, he wouldn't have used them?  The last thing we want to do is back a psychopathic dictator with access to a nuclear arsenal into a corner in which he feels he has nothing left to lose.

Agreed. Putin is on a highway with no off-ramp so far. We need to give him one and it will probably need to be, at the least, an independent Donbas in eastern Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 03, 2022, 01:32:16 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 01:29:22 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 03, 2022, 01:28:12 PM
I divorced myself from politics back in 2016. 

Now I care more on what is happening in this world between elites and the common man.  Politics is just a tool the elites use to divide us.  Don't fall for it. 

Maybe I didn't express my thoughts the way I intended but I'm not here to glorify any one man or degrade another.  If I use colorful language it's to illustrate a point.  Like Spock, I have no emotion for politics.  It's all bs anyways.

Yes let's refrain from the politics.  This is a good thread talking about world events.  No need to bring in R&P stuff in here.   8)

Please, you're not fooling anyone with your high-minded esoteric BS.  Just because you're blind to your own political leanings doesn't mean it's not there on display for all to see.

Ok ok...the point has been made. Let's drop it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:47:21 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 01:27:34 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:25:02 PM
I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?

What makes you so sure of this?  If an unstable individual is holding a gun to your head, finger on the trigger, and the police have guns fixed on him, would you want the police to assume he's not serious and hurry up and escalate the violence?  Do you think if Hitler had access to nuclear weapons in May of 1945, he wouldn't have used them?  The last thing we want to do is back a psychopathic dictator with access to a nuclear arsenal into a corner in which he feels he has nothing left to lose.

I'm not sure of this, but I refuse to succumb to the notion that any tyrannical power with nukes has a license to kill civilians.  Shelling cities is Putin's playbook all along.  Look at grozny, we should have seen it coming then but no one in the west wants to interrupt their comfortable life.  Now it's magnified in Ukraine and if he gets a pass watch what happens when it's Estonia or Poland.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:49:55 PM
I'm not saying we should go full on desert storm on the Russians tomorrow, but let's push the envelope a little and see if we can give the Ukrainians a fighting chance.  Let's use some asymmetric warfare on the Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 03, 2022, 01:54:17 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:47:21 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 01:27:34 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:25:02 PM
I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?

What makes you so sure of this?  If an unstable individual is holding a gun to your head, finger on the trigger, and the police have guns fixed on him, would you want the police to assume he's not serious and hurry up and escalate the violence?  Do you think if Hitler had access to nuclear weapons in May of 1945, he wouldn't have used them?  The last thing we want to do is back a psychopathic dictator with access to a nuclear arsenal into a corner in which he feels he has nothing left to lose.

I'm not sure of this, but I refuse to succumb to the notion that any tyrannical power with nukes has a license to kill civilians.  Shelling cities is Putin's playbook all along.  Look at grozny, we should have seen it coming then but no one in the west want to interrupt their comfortable life.  Now it's magnified in Ukrainian and if he gets a pass watch what happens when it's Estonia or Poland.

There is no comparison. Estonia and Poland are both NATO member states. Ukraine is not. I am not willing to risk American lives, and worse, the Third World War, to protect Ukrainian sovereignty, particularly when the country and its government has its own questionable record. I don't understand how anyone can be so cavalier about the stakes involved in this situation.

Its nice to talk about stopping tyrants, but its just talk. I don't see how US interests in stopping Russia's war against Ukraine outweigh the potential consequences of getting involved in a more direct confrontational way.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 03, 2022, 01:59:34 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 03, 2022, 01:31:20 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 01:27:34 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:25:02 PM
I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?

What makes you so sure of this?  If an unstable individual is holding a gun to your head, finger on the trigger, and the police have guns fixed on him, would you want the police to assume he's not serious and hurry up and escalate the violence?  Do you think if Hitler had access to nuclear weapons in May of 1945, he wouldn't have used them?  The last thing we want to do is back a psychopathic dictator with access to a nuclear arsenal into a corner in which he feels he has nothing left to lose.

Agreed. Putin is on a highway with no off-ramp so far. We need to give him one and it will probably need to be, at the least, an independent Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

We could possibly offer him to not let Finland and Sweden in NATO in exchange for cessation of hostilities, recognition of Ukrainian territory (unfortunately, absent the Donbas).  In other words, threaten him with something he neither wants, and is incapable of stopping.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 03, 2022, 02:03:36 PM
Russian army defections have been discussed in the topic and offering of asylum is a fair tactic to counter the invasion.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-the-cards-canada-is-leaving-unplayed-in-countering-putin

QuoteWe're also a pretty attractive destination for the average Russian conscript (and we happen to be dramatically ramping up our immigration targets in part to combat a growing labour shortage).

Christian Leuprecht, a professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, told the National Post that Canada and NATO should consider offering to process and house prisoners of wars on behalf of Ukraine. "That way (Russian soldiers) know they won't have to fear retribution – and they may never have to return to Russia," he said.

If the Russian army suffers a lot of defections, the political officer might be reintroduced.  If these cannot be found internally, the Russian National Guard, Putin's Praetorian guard of 400 000 light infantry might be used.  But in large numbers necessary for personal security, it will start to strip away these internal security forces from Russia.  National Guard and leadership info in this article:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261

The same article also mentions increased oil production in Canada so as to block Russian exports.  This will be some time away as the infrastructure is not in place to export it, but regional politicians are discussing increased production.  With Spring coming in Europe and promise of increased production in places like Tunisia, it could make the threat of ending imports of Russian oil and gas a reality.  If Saudi Arabia was to increase production, it would put the nail in the coffin of a long time competitor as the two countries had been engaged in lowering prices to damage profits to expensive fracking and oilsand fields as well as each other pre-pandemic.

Methods Russia may use to try to dodge economic disaster are as follows:

Russians will move their monies into cryptocurrencies.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60576373
QuoteThe boss of one of the world's biggest crypto-currency exchanges has ruled out restricting ordinary Russians from using the service.

Binance founder and chief executive Changpeng Zhao, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Many normal Russians do not agree with war."

Major cryptocurrency exchanges have been asked by Ukraine to block Russian users.
...
There has been speculation Russian oligarchs may pour their money into cryptocurrencies to avoid sanctions and other restrictions.

The Russian banks hold US$140 billion in Chinese stocks and will likely maintain access to them.

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/03/03/ukraine-crisis-china-bonds
QuoteRussia's central bank and sovereign wealth fund may account for nearly a quarter of foreign holdings of Chinese bonds, analysts at ANZ Research calculated, potentially offering shelter from Western sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia's financial markets have been thrown into turmoil by sanctions imposed over the invasion, the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two.

In the face of those sanctions, Russian companies have been exploring workarounds with emerging market allies, especially China, with settlement of transactions in yuan seen rising at the expense of the dollar.

In a note this week, ANZ economists and strategists said they estimate yuan bond holdings of Russia's central bank and the Russian National Wealth Fund at $80 billion and $60 billion, respectively.

The Chinese would be more than happy to see the 'dethroning' of the US dollar, but an economist should comment on how such a move could play out. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 02:07:51 PM
If I am reading the above correctly, the Russian Army does not have political officers anymore? Or...yet?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 02:17:05 PM
yet  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 02:18:20 PM
Nyet? Either way...doesn't look good for anyone.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 03, 2022, 02:19:53 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 02:07:51 PM
If I am reading the above correctly, the Russian Army does not have political officers anymore? Or...yet?
My written communication needs work.  I believe the political officer disappeared in the middle of the Second World War from the Soviet Army.  There is no equivalent in the modern Russian army.  I am speculating that if Ukraine with tacit support from the West (such as asylum) encourages defections and it is effective you will see reappearance of officers responsible for maintaining battle field discipline.  This will strip manpower from elsewhere including Russia, especially if there are threats against the 'commisars'.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 02:23:34 PM
A Russian Major General was killed by a sniper, making him the highest ranking Russian officer killed in the conflict thus far.  Confirmed by Putin going on air and talking about him as a war hero.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10573429/Top-Russian-general-killed-Ukrainian-sniper-Kyiv-claims-9-000-Putins-troops-died.html?ito=social-facebook
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 03, 2022, 02:26:00 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 02:23:34 PM
A Russian Major General was killed by a sniper, making him the highest ranking Russian officer killed in the conflict thus far.  Confirmed by Putin going on air and talking about him as a war hero.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10573429/Top-Russian-general-killed-Ukrainian-sniper-Kyiv-claims-9-000-Putins-troops-died.html?ito=social-facebook

He's having to talk a lot about how heroic they are, which smacks of desperation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 02:26:46 PM
as of early today

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FM79rriWUAcDb0z?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 02:28:29 PM
'Military administration' in Kherson. Not good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 02:47:36 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 03, 2022, 01:54:17 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:47:21 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 01:27:34 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 01:25:02 PM
I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?

What makes you so sure of this?  If an unstable individual is holding a gun to your head, finger on the trigger, and the police have guns fixed on him, would you want the police to assume he's not serious and hurry up and escalate the violence?  Do you think if Hitler had access to nuclear weapons in May of 1945, he wouldn't have used them?  The last thing we want to do is back a psychopathic dictator with access to a nuclear arsenal into a corner in which he feels he has nothing left to lose.

I'm not sure of this, but I refuse to succumb to the notion that any tyrannical power with nukes has a license to kill civilians.  Shelling cities is Putin's playbook all along.  Look at grozny, we should have seen it coming then but no one in the west want to interrupt their comfortable life.  Now it's magnified in Ukrainian and if he gets a pass watch what happens when it's Estonia or Poland.

There is no comparison. Estonia and Poland are both NATO member states. Ukraine is not. I am not willing to risk American lives, and worse, the Third World War, to protect Ukrainian sovereignty, particularly when the country and its government has its own questionable record. I don't understand how anyone can be so cavalier about the stakes involved in this situation.

Its nice to talk about stopping tyrants, but its just talk. I don't see how US interests in stopping Russia's war against Ukraine outweigh the potential consequences of getting involved in a more direct confrontational way.

Estonia is gona be a target cause it's nato on his border.  Might has well get more involved in clandestine ways now while we have a fanatical ally intact.  But your probably right, we'll just stand by and wait for Putin's next move.  Hilarious thing is west is still buying Russian oil.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 03, 2022, 02:53:19 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 03, 2022, 02:47:36 PM
Hilarious thing is west is still buying Russian oil.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/03/investing/russia-oil-sanctions-ukraine/index.html

Russian oil has not been directly targeted by the West's crushing sanctions on Moscow — so far, at least. In fact, the United States and Europe have gone out of their way to avoid hitting Russia's fossil fuels.
But the market is taking no chances when it comes to Russian oil. Traders, shippers, insurance companies and banks don't want to touch the stuff, for fear of running afoul of Western sanctions.

This means that a considerable amount of Russian oil has been effectively sidelined — precisely what the West didn't want to happen. Prices for oil and gasoline have skyrocketed.

"The sanctions have led to a de facto ban on Russian oil," Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, told CNN.
Although the West has carved out the energy sector from the crushing sanctions leveled on Russia, the penalties imposed on banks, individuals and Russia's central bank have created a minefield for the energy industry to navigate. And there is concern — some of it sparked by White House comments this week — that Russian oil will be sanctioned eventually anyway.
"How do you know that the oil you are loading has not been tainted by ownership from someone who has been sanctioned?" Lipow said. "You know how you solve that problem? You don't buy it."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 03, 2022, 03:17:48 PM
Putin to declare martial law in Russia? (https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-citizens-reportedly-flee-country-over-fears-of-putins-martial-law-announcement)

Quote
...Russian citizens have broadly started to panic as the Duma, Russia's governing body, meets Thursday to lay out new legislation that may allow it to conscript anyone arrested for protesting the invasion

That'll squash a lot of the protesting. :(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 03, 2022, 04:15:23 PM
It's an interesting dynamic.  The price of Russian oil has dropped dramatically, for fear that it'll turn to poison in the pipelines and the tankers quickly.  A week ago, European and US leaders were VERY worried about antagonizing their civilian populations.  We cry like somebody took our lollipop when we have to shoulder ANY kind of sacrifice these days.

That may be changing.  In another few weeks, Europe will be getting warmer, which reduces the short-term need for fuel too.  Both places have needed a more coherent energy policy that worried about national security for 20 years now.  I guess it's a little bit late.

I am terribly sad that the people of Ukraine are being forced to pay the price for the shortsightedness and greed of governments and voters in Western Europe and North America.  Sanctions might work eventually if the people get so restless that the oligarchs start to fear them more than they do Putin.  There's NO sign of that happening yet.

To be clear, Russia is NOT the Bear of the 1970s.  Today they represent 2% of the world's GDP and 3% of the world's population.  Germany's economy alone is 4x the size of Russia's.  Russia faces a Europe more unified than it's been since... Forever?  Democracies have a short attention span and a low pain threshold, but when you get them pissed, they can be incredibly effective.

I wonder if Sweden and Finland join NATO now?  If Ukraine can stave off this Russian attack, I suspect that they'll be in the EU within a year.

The only problem:  Russia is basically a dirty gas station with a noble history of science, art and culture... and 3,000 nukes.  It might feel good to punch them in the nose, but it'd give us the same strategic advantage as punching a dude wearing a suicide vest in the nose.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 04:18:51 PM
Im holding out for the mostly peaceful coup.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 04:32:50 PM
I've read that Russia has 6000 nukes but who's counting after the first 2-3 anyway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 03, 2022, 05:00:13 PM
The extent of Russian penetration west of Kiev might not be accurately represented on maps. Yesterday and today, I saw photos of rubble in the Zhitomir area.

It also seems strange that, considering the lengthy border with Belarus, the Russians wouldn't attempt to create a wider encirclement after taking Kiev from the march and through airborne assault failed.

I fear there might be a lot more "red" spots west of Kiev compared to that map.

QuoteI wonder if Sweden and Finland join NATO now?

Improbable, they didn't join NATO when the Soviet Union attacked Afghanistan or the Russians attacked Georgia either. It would be another big step from moving from relaxing their neutral to actually joining NATO.

QuoteIf Ukraine can stave off this Russian attack, I suspect that they'll be in the EU within a year.

Impossible. Particularly in Western Europe, politicians took a lot of flak after the "everybody can join" years resulted in corrupt states like Bulgaria and Romania joining. Von der Leyen has mostly been misquoted thus far, she didn't say Ukraine would be able to join no questions asked.

The nature of the attack, as well as the resistance offered by the Ukrainians, shouldn't cloud judgement as to the political, social and economic issues Ukraine faces. Without the war, Zelensky would still be spending a considerable amount of energy on trying to put his predecessor in prison.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 05:27:23 PM
(https://scontent.fmia1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/275187877_5096628843713289_3476158236539176092_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=Mrc5ouUm0VsAX-epkxz&tn=L7TwarEgvYSN3rJv&_nc_ht=scontent.fmia1-2.fna&oh=00_AT_IwR_OSnFzt8H4H0hqMwJtFPTyPud1nlW-jcivoZVqtw&oe=62263941)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 03, 2022, 05:37:25 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 02, 2022, 09:07:52 PM
I really only see Russia getting rid of their nukes by launching them at us.

I am certain, they feel the same way towards you John Wayne dudes   <:-)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 03, 2022, 05:49:07 PM
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/321/645/b29)
Need to pick it up yourself from Ukraine
It's a joke but not by much
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 03, 2022, 05:49:42 PM
Speaking of nukes nuclear power plants.  Russians are closing in on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant (https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-troops-ukraine-nuclear-plant).  Let us pray no errant shells/missiles land anywhere near it. :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 03, 2022, 06:05:26 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 05:27:23 PM
"Just writing it down, so there is no misunderstanding in the future." -- German History and Culture Facebook

Missing some REALLY IMPORTANT context (as I know Star is well aware of course), but still funny. I lol'd harder than I was expecting! As I've quipped before, all the Nazis had to do to win WW2 was not be Nazis.

After all, the Soviet government -- even before the USSR existed per se as the Soviet government -- had been trying to take over Germany by various military methods (and then Europe and then the world, by their own ideological declarations and propaganda) since less than 48 hours after the end of WW1. Germany, per se, had a lot of excuse to get bothered and armed up over Russia nearby. Which Hitler exploited to excuse his own atrocities (which Stalin could then exploit to excuse more of his own atrocities, in an ongoing feedback loop).

But even the Weimar Republic felt the boots repeatedly trying to over-stomp them, and were desperate enough to do crazy things about it. (Up to and including paying Stalinist Russia to host production and training for modern air, land, and sea warfare.)

Had the West (and neighbors like Poland, clawing its way out of being dominated for however many decades) not been so (understandably) concerned about a resurgent German war machine, Germany could have been the hero of the continent against tyrannical aggression from Russia. Churchill had been willing to set that up if possible, by sparing the Republic its reparations in practice and bringing them into the League as the glorious shield of Europe against the Comintern, regaining and establishing Germany's public honor.

Pretty much no one else was on board with that idea, but in hindsight...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 03, 2022, 06:07:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 02:26:46 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FM79rriWUAcDb0z?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

Resizing Star's handy map for easier overview.  O0 Clicking still allows zoom-in (and back out).

No doubt outdated by this time today, and probably too optimistic (as noted afterward), but still a handy snapshot.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 03, 2022, 06:11:03 PM
"Mr. Reagan", conservative commentator with a Russian wife, offers some commentary gleaned from his Russian contacts.



"Here's the problem: you can have more than one supervillain."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 03, 2022, 07:51:35 PM
Bill Whittle's commentary group on morale and logistics in Russia vs Ukraine:



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 03, 2022, 08:14:42 PM
Quote from: steve58 on March 03, 2022, 05:49:42 PM
Speaking of nukes nuclear power plants.  Russians are closing in on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant (https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-troops-ukraine-nuclear-plant).  Let us pray no errant shells/missiles land anywhere near it. :hide:

  Apparently it's on fire now (whatever that means with a nuclear power plant).  A couple of more Chernobyls aren't going to help anyone much.

  Meanwhile the Russo-Georgian war of 2008 might suggest the kind of on-going mess that Putin is constructing:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

The plant is on the Dniepr and is the most eastern of the plants in the Ukraine, though also billed as "Europe's Largest":
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 08:27:09 PM
its the administration building thats being fired at
agendafreetv is live streaming it now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 03, 2022, 09:05:24 PM
CNN has a small screen-within-a-screen focusing just on the nuclear plant assault :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 03, 2022, 09:18:27 PM
Well the nuclear containment building regs are to survive a plane hit. Wonder what type of rpg and tank shell testing they have done on it. We are living in a Bond film
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 09:42:17 PM
and how likely is a wrecked nuclear power plant to pull in NATO?
is there a part of putins idiotic strategy to now pull in NATO?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 03, 2022, 09:43:47 PM
^ I was just wondering if a nuclear cloud drifting into Poland would be cause for Article 5.   :-\
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Lowenstaat on March 03, 2022, 10:31:42 PM
Wow, shelling a nuclear plant can't be a smart move! I've seen some video that showed what looked like illuminating flares falling into a parking lot at the plant. Has anyone seen video of HE or other types of artillery falling on the plant or tanks firing at the plant?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 10:40:30 PM
i was watching the live stream.
the last page has my comments.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 04, 2022, 07:28:25 AM
According to Director General Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the reactors are undamaged.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2022, 07:45:31 AM
...but they are now in Russian hands.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Zulu1966 on March 04, 2022, 07:46:44 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 09:42:17 PM
and how likely is a wrecked nuclear power plant to pull in NATO?
is there a part of putins idiotic strategy to now pull in NATO?

Well - he is definitely an idiot - so who knows.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 04, 2022, 08:28:56 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 09:42:17 PM
and how likely is a wrecked nuclear power plant to pull in NATO?
is there a part of putins idiotic strategy to now pull in NATO?

  CNN (I think) noted that the IAE(AC?) was readying an "action team"...apparently of your basic superheros who were irratiated into the specialities some time ago
...to go fix the powerplant (or something).  Maybe I'm drifting away from reality here or maybe reality is drifting away from me.  Anyway there was something about an
action team that was getting ready to deal with the reactor...make sure it got shut down properly?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on March 04, 2022, 08:33:26 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2022, 05:27:23 PM
(https://scontent.fmia1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/275187877_5096628843713289_3476158236539176092_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=Mrc5ouUm0VsAX-epkxz&tn=L7TwarEgvYSN3rJv&_nc_ht=scontent.fmia1-2.fna&oh=00_AT_IwR_OSnFzt8H4H0hqMwJtFPTyPud1nlW-jcivoZVqtw&oe=62263941)

Pretty much sums up what I've been saying since the start. It would be a Very Bad Idea for Germany to get involved in this, beyond offering support, equipment, aid.

Putin pretty much has the entire world's public opinion against him, including his own countrymen. Germany joining the fight would change the Russian opinion almost instantly I think.

I feel the best thing Germany could do is to aid Poland with all the refugees. And that's it.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 04, 2022, 08:56:57 AM
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-11-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine (https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-11-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine)

Director General Grossi looked like he lost his cat, car, and marriage all in one day at today's press conference, but that might be his natural look.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 04, 2022, 11:08:32 AM
seems to be updated often

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/03-march-kharkiv2255-red-alert-aerial-threat-g
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 04, 2022, 11:16:07 AM
I heard on FOX this morning the Ukrainians are saying the Nuke plant is being run by their staff at gunpoint by Chechnyans working for the Russkies. And there are more nuclear power plants in the path on of the Russians. Could be just a propaganda story by the Ukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 04, 2022, 11:19:06 AM
^That sounds so insane it must be true. Like a GI Joe comic book plot from 1988.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2022, 11:24:08 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 04, 2022, 11:16:07 AM
I heard on FOX this morning the Ukrainians are saying the Nuke plant is being run by their staff at gunpoint by Chechnyans working for the Russkies. And there are more nuclear power plants in the path on of the Russians. Could be just a propaganda story by the Ukes.

OK...at least they are running the plant.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2022, 11:34:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 04, 2022, 11:08:32 AM
seems to be updated often

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/03-march-kharkiv2255-red-alert-aerial-threat-g

Great link. Thanks.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 04, 2022, 12:12:55 PM
Based on estimates from earlier today, over 1.2 million Ukrainians have fled across Ukraine's western borders in the first week of the war. Mostly across the border with Poland.

About 1 in 34 Ukrainians have fled the country if the estimates are correct.

Countries across Europe are preparing to aid the refugees in various ways, but it's debatable if proper accommodations are available at short notice for such a large and ever increasing group of refugees.

The Netherlands is preparing to potentially take in about 2000 people (50.000 total) in all of its 25 "safety regions", public bodies for crisis management and maintaining public order.

Exactly how that's supposed to happen isn't entirely clear at this time, the government services for taking in refugees were already facing serious issues before the war in Ukraine. Field beds in buildings for indoor sports, maybe. Spokespeople for only a handful of safety regions have said they will take in 2000 refugees. Discussions between the local and national government will continue on Monday.

In other news, the Duma passed the "fake news" law that was proposed earlier this week. Journalists and Russian civilians risk up to 15 years in prison and up to a 1,5 million (12.600 euro's, but likely to be much less soon...) Russian ruble fine.

As a result, the BBC and other (European) news networks/agencies are shutting down operations in Russia or even moving their journalists out of the country.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 04, 2022, 12:54:20 PM
Putin's behavior has been fairly rational, if you assume he's a psychotic bully with delusions of grandeur and surrounded by sycophants who rose to power based on their ability to keep him happy.  The greatest danger to people living outside Ukraine comes from events in Ukraine spiraling out of Putin's control and his getting more and more rash in his efforts to hang onto power in Russia.

That doesn't mean that we need to be afraid of him, but we need to be very calculating and very strategic in how we handle him.

Jamus, we all have different opinions on this.  I think it's outdated to say that Germany needs to limit itself to a pacifistic, humanitarian role in European affairs going forward. 

I don't follow German politics closely these days, but my sense is that the Germans have acknowledged their sins and spent the last 75 years trying to atone for them.  They need to continue to be shackled to Civilization through entities like NATO, the EU, the European Community, and the G7.  But they also need to begin to step more aggressively into a leadership role in Europe.  That includes starting to invest more in their military, and a much stronger commitment to sending troops abroad within the framework of a multinational structure.

The German economy is three-and-a-half times the size of the Russian economy.  Germany is the first among equals in Western Europe.  They need to start acting the part, and stop just looking out for the economic interests of German banks and German consumers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 04, 2022, 01:15:42 PM
In terms of military expenditure, many EU countries have not been taking their responsibility. Once again, it takes a ground war in Europe for them to wake up. I'm ashamed my country managed to get away with not meeting the 2% GDP military expenditure NATO requirements since 1993.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 04, 2022, 01:15:55 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 04, 2022, 12:54:20 PM
Putin's behavior has been fairly rational, if you assume he's a psychotic bully with delusions of grandeur and surrounded by sycophants who rose to power based on their ability to keep him happy.
Exactly! I mean, gee man! Give the guy a break. It is not easy balancing domestic suppression with external aggression. Thank the powers for the voices in his head, helping him out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 04, 2022, 01:19:00 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 04, 2022, 12:54:20 PM
Putin's behavior has been fairly rational, if you assume he's a psychotic bully with delusions of grandeur and surrounded by sycophants who rose to power based on their ability to keep him happy.

There's also the matter of Putin being very careful with the Covid situation or even afraid of the virus. The enormous tables and the seating arrangements in the Kremlin are not just for show. Putin's out of touch with every day life by choice, aside from any mental issues.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 04, 2022, 01:38:11 PM
Quote from: solops on March 04, 2022, 01:15:55 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 04, 2022, 12:54:20 PM
Putin's behavior has been fairly rational, if you assume he's a psychotic bully with delusions of grandeur and surrounded by sycophants who rose to power based on their ability to keep him happy.
Exactly! I mean, gee man! Give the guy a break. It is not easy balancing domestic suppression with external aggression. Thank the powers for the voices in his head, helping him out.

  The irony is dense on these things.  Gosh!  We could have had s nuclear disaster by accident with the Chechenyeians driving half-a-dozen reactors, but apparently not. and then
The Russians are sure the Ukrainians have enough time and whatnot to "provoke" the Russian army:

"In the city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian nationalists are preparing a provocation with the participation of Western journalists," Konashenkov said in a video briefing released by the Russian MOD. "According to confirmed data, on Zhylyardi Street, Kyiv District, in a private residential area, multiple launch rocket systems are placed between the houses. Nationalists have forbidden local residents, including children, from leaving their homes. Now the installations are ready for shelling units of the Russian armed forces located outside the city. The purpose of the provocation is to call back fire from Russian artillery on the residential sector of Kharkiv. All this is planned to be filmed on cameras with the subsequent transfer of filming to Western journalists."


So okay a) how would they Russians know about this massive plot to get shot at b) if they did couldn't they just not shoot where they know the journalists or whoever might be filming
c) does anyone actually need to provoke the Russians into shooting?  Aren't they happy shooting on their own or sending some Chedchins to do it or almost blow up a reactor etc. etc. etc.?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 04, 2022, 02:15:55 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487  Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won't believe me'

The 25-year-old has been speaking regularly to her mother, who lives in Moscow. But in these conversations, and even after sending videos from her heavily bombarded hometown, Oleksandra is unable to convince her mother about the danger she is in.
"I didn't want to scare my parents, but I started telling them directly that civilians and children are dying," she says.
"But even though they worry about me, they still say it probably happens only by accident, that the Russian army would never target civilians. That it's Ukrainians who're killing their own people."
It's common for Ukrainians to have family across the border in Russia. But for some, like Oleksandra, their Russian relatives have a contrasting understanding of the conflict. She believes it's down to the stories they are told by the tightly-controlled Russian media.

Oleksandra says her mother just repeats the narratives of what she hears on Russian state TV channels.
"It really scared me when my mum exactly quoted Russian TV. They are just brainwashing people. And people trust them," says Oleksandra.
"My parents understand that some military action is happening here. But they say: 'Russians came to liberate you. They won't ruin anything, they won't touch you. They're only targeting military bases'."


Mykhailo, a well-known Kyiv restaurateur, didn't have the time or inclination to watch Russian TV coverage of the invasion.
When shelling of Ukraine's capital started, he and his wife were concentrating on how to protect their six-year-old daughter and baby son.
They travelled to Hungary, where Mykhailo left his wife and children and came back to Western Ukraine to help the war effort.
He was surprised not to have heard from his father, who works at a monastery near Nizhny Novgorod in Russia. He called his father and described what was happening. His father replied that this wasn't true; there was no war and - in fact - Russians were saving Ukraine from Nazis.
Mykhailo said he felt he knew the power of Russian propaganda, but when he heard it from his father, he was devastated.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 04, 2022, 02:58:18 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 04, 2022, 02:15:55 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487  Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won't believe me'
....
Mykhailo said he felt he knew the power of Russian propaganda, but when he heard it from his father, he was devastated.[/i]

I see that a major internet backbone provider Cogent, is disconnecting Russia as of today. This won't completely disconnect Russia from the total internet by any means, but might slow down their access to the outside world.

Cogent says they are doing it to counter cyber attacks and propaganda targeted at Ukraine.

However, I wonder if this is not a mistake. I am thinking that keeping as many information pipes open to Russia is the only way to combat the Russian propaganda problem in your post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-internet-cogent-cutoff/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-internet-cogent-cutoff/)

I think if Elon Musk really wants to help the world right now, he should open up Starlink to Russia as well as Ukraine.

BTW, by strange and ironic twist of history, the Internet, as first implemented in the US Department of Defense's, Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (ARPANET) in 1969, was designed partly to solve the problem: 'how do you keep your network working in a nuclear war.'  The solution was data packet switching architecture that automatically re-routes data when network links or nodes are lost or shutdown (as they would be in a nuclear war). This very nature would make it very hard, if not impossible to completely shut Russia down.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2022, 03:02:36 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 04, 2022, 02:58:18 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 04, 2022, 02:15:55 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487  Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won't believe me'
....
Mykhailo said he felt he knew the power of Russian propaganda, but when he heard it from his father, he was devastated.[/i]

I see that a major internet backbone provider Cogent, is disconnecting Russia as of today. This won't completely disconnect Russia from the total internet by any means, but might slow down their access to the outside world.

Cogent says they are doing it to counter cyber attacks and propaganda targeted at Ukraine.

However, I wonder if this is not a mistake. I am thinking that keeping as many information pipes open to Russia is the only way to combat the Russian propaganda problem in your post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-internet-cogent-cutoff/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-internet-cogent-cutoff/)

I think if Elon Musk really wants to help the world right now, he should open up Starlink to Russia as well as Ukraine.

I agree. Russians need more access to free information, not less.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 04, 2022, 03:18:29 PM
I also think further isolating Russian citizens will make for a more desperate situation all around.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 04, 2022, 04:03:38 PM
I agree, freedom of information is our most powerful weapon besides more javelins to the Ukrainians.

I like the starlink idea.  If that doesn't work we need to find a way to pump internet from the west into Russia.  Let them see what's going on in instagram, tik tok, and Facebook.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 04, 2022, 04:08:29 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2022, 03:02:36 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 04, 2022, 02:58:18 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 04, 2022, 02:15:55 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487  Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won't believe me'
....
Mykhailo said he felt he knew the power of Russian propaganda, but when he heard it from his father, he was devastated.[/i]

I see that a major internet backbone provider Cogent, is disconnecting Russia as of today. This won't completely disconnect Russia from the total internet by any means, but might slow down their access to the outside world.

Cogent says they are doing it to counter cyber attacks and propaganda targeted at Ukraine.

However, I wonder if this is not a mistake. I am thinking that keeping as many information pipes open to Russia is the only way to combat the Russian propaganda problem in your post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-internet-cogent-cutoff/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-internet-cogent-cutoff/)

I think if Elon Musk really wants to help the world right now, he should open up Starlink to Russia as well as Ukraine.

I agree. Russians need more access to free information, not less.

Access to internet is only part of the problem.  Access to correct data is getting impossible.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084580235/russia-blocks-facebook-twitter?t=1646427817337
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/russia-completely-blocks-access-to-facebook-and-twitter

Russia has completely blocked access to Facebook in retaliation for the platform placing restrictions on state-owned media.

It was later reported that it had also blocked Twitter. The Russian state communications regulator said access had been restricted, according to the state-owned Ria news agency.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 04, 2022, 05:15:44 PM
I agree that the pipeline of data is irrelevant if you block the vehicles that access it
Also free unfettered access to multitude of sources has worked really well in unifying our society (thats sarcasm just in case) - dont think it would move the needle in an indoctrinated society like Russia.
Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 04, 2022, 05:29:51 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 04, 2022, 04:03:38 PM
I agree, freedom of information is our most powerful weapon besides more javelins to the Ukrainians.

I like the starlink idea.  If that doesn't work we need to find a way to pump internet from the west into Russia.  Let them see what's going on in instagram, tik tok, and Facebook.

Getting Starlink to Ukrainians and Russians is one thing; keeping them alive while/after using it is another. 

Quote
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk yesterday warned that Starlink user terminals in Ukraine could be targeted by Russia and advised users to take precautions. "Important warning: Starlink is the only non-Russian communications system still working in some parts of Ukraine, so probability of being targeted is high. Please use with caution," Musk tweeted.

When asked for specific advice, Musk said people in Ukraine should turn Starlink on only when it's needed, place the antenna "as far away from people as possible," and "place light camouflage over [the] antenna to avoid visual detection." A thin layer of spray paint would work if there are no metal particles in the paint, he wrote.

One Twitter user asked Musk if Starlink could face a cyberattack from Russia similar to the one that affected Viasat satellite service. Musk responded, "Almost all Viasat Ukraine user terminals were rendered permanently unusable by a Russian cyberattack on day of invasion, so... yes."

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/03/elon-musk-high-probability-of-russian-attacks-on-starlink-in-ukraine/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 04, 2022, 05:34:36 PM
The craziness of this war keeps me bumfuzzled.

Quote
U.S. Senate invited to virtually meet with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday

The full U.S. Senate has been invited to meet with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday on Zoom, Fox News has confirmed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 04, 2022, 05:47:23 PM
guess were going with Reforger 2022!

https://www.army.mil/article/254346/army_prepositioned_stocks_in_europe_activated_to_support_deployment_of_armored_brigade_combat_team
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 04, 2022, 05:52:39 PM
Wow...when is the civilian version of this truck going to be available?

(https://api.army.mil/e2/c/images/2022/03/01/6007402d/max1200.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 04, 2022, 06:05:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 04, 2022, 05:47:23 PM
guess were going with Reforger 2022!

https://www.army.mil/article/254346/army_prepositioned_stocks_in_europe_activated_to_support_deployment_of_armored_brigade_combat_team
I hope that they maintained the tires better than the ruskis
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/land-amphibious/9612-poorly-made-chinese-tires-a-new-theory-on-russia-s-slow-advance
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 04, 2022, 06:06:18 PM
Ukrainian President Zelensky really is winning the propaganda war:

"This is not just Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Zelensky said on Sunday. "This is the beginning of a war against Europe, against European structures, against democracy, against basic human rights, against a global order of law, rules, and peaceful coexistence."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 04, 2022, 07:14:08 PM
Quote from: Con on March 04, 2022, 06:05:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 04, 2022, 05:47:23 PM
guess were going with Reforger 2022!

https://www.army.mil/article/254346/army_prepositioned_stocks_in_europe_activated_to_support_deployment_of_armored_brigade_combat_team
I hope that they maintained the tires better than the ruskis
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/land-amphibious/9612-poorly-made-chinese-tires-a-new-theory-on-russia-s-slow-advance

  I feel like there's a kind of deep, even Aesopian, moral here along the lines of "for the lack of a nail" (to shoe a horse etc. etc.).  Or just a good sales/caveat (emptor) point: don't buy Chinese tires.
And if you are going to invade Ukraine, especially don't buy Chinese tires and put them on the big trucks that you load with missiles and whatnot.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 04, 2022, 07:20:10 PM
Zelenskiy is winning the propaganda war for sure.  I'm doubtful that he can keep holding off Russian advances for months and months.

I was listening to some experts on Russian news sources talk about this issue today.  There's a major generational disconnect.  Older folks get all their info from state TV.  Younger folks get all their info from the internet--which is now blocked.  They are unlikely to tune in to Soviet State TV as a result, but it'll be interesting to see where they get their info.

We know lots of Russians believe the state TV.  We don't know if that number is 30% or 60% or 90%.  We know from our own experiences that, even when you expose opposing sides on an issue to plentiful and abundant information, people can happily pick whatever news sources they want to believe and ignore the others.

In Chechnya, public opposition to the war there only started to increase after tens of thousands of Russian soldiers started coming home with war stories.  The idea that the Russian people will pivot on this quickly, or that Putin will soon give up his plans to conquer Ukraine, seem low.

This will be a long struggle, I fear.  Unless the Russian military is defeated, the people of Ukraine will pay the highest cost and they will pay it for a LONG time to come.  I think Sweden and Finland will both join NATO within the next 12 months.  It's not like staying out of NATO did crap to help the Ukrainians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 04, 2022, 07:21:19 PM
I now believe that war with Russia is inevitable. I therefore support all measures to support Ukraine in such a fashion that the conflict does not begin before sufficient deterrent forces can be positioned in the Western Pacific.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 04, 2022, 07:32:34 PM
I feel US and Nato are becoming more belligerent and out raged everyday this goes on.  No fly seems insane right now but don't be surprised if west is unanimously clamoring for it by end of next week.  I highly suspect Putin will only nuke if we threaten Russian soil with a land force.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 04, 2022, 07:45:37 PM
A2A skirmishes are an act of war, but if we don't attack Russians on the ground or any interdiction and keep it strictly to prevent bombing of cities, I could see something like that in place.  It will take a ton of restraint on our part, and may lead to Russian Air Force attacking nato airfields with cruise missiles, which we could refuse to not respond and escalate, but by end of next week this scenario may be more palatable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 04, 2022, 09:03:17 PM
Today's Epic Economist episode focuses on the discussion I've seen some other outlets talking about today and yesterday, on what the global ripple effect of the loss of wheat and other grains will be from the war.

After all, not only will the early Ukrainian crop be affected (obviously), but (less obviously) Russia's own agricultural manpower has been sharply curtailed -- being busy over in Ukraine affecting their agriculture ;) -- along with nations having to decide how much economic warfare they're willing to bite the bullets on (so to speak) by refusing to buy food from Russia.



It's pretty grim when a pro-capitalist economic site starts talking about workers rising up in violent protest to overthrow the governments which, rightly or wrongly, aren't feeding them enough!  :o I was just introducing Mom tonight to the roots of Marxian thought on the connection between socialism, communism, and ultimate world war, and the switch to actively militant Marxian groups in the years leading into WW1.

(Note: the book mentioned at the end is actually a pretty standard Christian end-times prophecy thing, with the hook that it's written by a major importing official from the West Coast if I understand the authorship correctly. I haven't personally read it yet, but while its bona fides on the economic hits might be interesting in that scenario, by all accounts I've seen it's primarily religious evangelism and not economics. Thus I'm not recommending it for further reading on the economic topics per se.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 04, 2022, 09:10:17 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 04, 2022, 07:14:08 PM
And if you are going to invade Ukraine, especially don't buy Chinese tires and put them on the big trucks that you load with missiles and whatnot.

"If you're going to overthrow the civil servants of your neighboring country, Mr. Putin, buy American!" -- paraphrasing Harvey Dent from The Dark Knight  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Silent Disapproval Robot on March 04, 2022, 11:00:56 PM
Fertilizer is going to be the real bottleneck.  Planting season is coming up very soon and there is a massive shortage of nitrogen, potassium, and potash.  Russia was a significant supplier.  Gonna get ugly really quickly, I think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 04, 2022, 11:04:21 PM
I see a, 'Chinese Tire Rule' coming when this war is finally wargamed.  :P
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 05, 2022, 12:01:50 AM
Reuters reporting that a US Defense Official says Ukraine still has a "significant majority" of its air force.

I hope so...but given the number of Russian aircraft, I just find it hard to believe.

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-still-has-significant-majority-its-military-aircraft-us-official-2022-03-04/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-still-has-significant-majority-its-military-aircraft-us-official-2022-03-04/)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 05, 2022, 12:56:57 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 05, 2022, 12:01:50 AM
Reuters reporting that a US Defense Official says Ukraine still has a "significant majority" of its air force.

I hope so...but given the number of Russian aircraft, I just find it hard to believe.

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-still-has-significant-majority-its-military-aircraft-us-official-2022-03-04/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-still-has-significant-majority-its-military-aircraft-us-official-2022-03-04/)

It is surprising.  If the airfields are destroyed the SU-27s can operate from short rugged strips or roads.  Wonder, but don't need to know, if the Stinger IFF interogation cannot distinguish between Ukrainian and Russian IFF, requiring grounding of the Ukrainian Air Force.  Or if the aircraft aren't frittered away, they'll remain a check on some action.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 01:17:24 AM
all russian combat jets can operate from "rough' fields and remote strips.
its also worth keeping in mind that Uk air defense has done a damn good job and the russia cant literally afford to replace combat losses.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 05, 2022, 01:37:17 AM
The BBC is reporting on Russians fleeing to Finland as they fear the introduction of martial law.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60624500
QuoteAt Vaalimaa, Finland's border crossing with Russia - 120 miles east of Helsinki - buses and cars stop for passport and customs checks. These aren't Ukrainians, they're Russians, and although the flow isn't heavy, it is constant.

Some people are anxious to get out of Russia because there has been a persistent rumour that President Vladimir Putin's government might soon introduce martial law to deal with demonstrations against the invasion of Ukraine.
From the same article a bit of hope but then dashed again:
QuoteMore worrying for [Putin] is the call by the Russian oil giant Lukoil for a halt to the invasion. If the main elements of the Russian economy are turning against him, he will find it much harder to carry on without making big changes - such as the introduction of martial law...
If martial law were introduced, Mr Putin would be free to do what he wanted, without having to worry about damaging protests in the streets. He has already made it clear to French President Emmanuel Macron that he won't stop until he has occupied the whole of Ukraine - and a French official who listened in on their phone call said, afterwards, that things could get a great deal worse.

In Russia, foreign businesses are being given these options:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/russia-offers-fast-track-bankruptcy-to-departing-companies/ar-AAUAULk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
QuoteForeign companies that want to leave Russia will receive fast-tracked bankruptcy protections or can hand their stakes over to local managers until they return to Russia, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said on Friday...
The fast-track banruptcy plan "will support the employment and social well-being of citizens so that bona fide entrepreneurs can ensure the effective functioning of business", the government said in a statement on Telegram.
Foreign companies could also simply just stay in Russia, Belousov added.

If (speculation) Putin imposes martial law, these foreign owned businesses will be nationalised as was done in Cuba in 1960.  Nationalisation may disguised as take over of bankruptcies, care taking, etc.  Whatever the case, Putin's regime will want to keep people working and who doubts that he would not have a problem with confiscations.  Don't have the knowledge to comment on possibility of reparations from Russia's confiscated $640 billion reserves.

Andre Kozyrev, a former Russian foreign minister living in the US comments on Putin's threats
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-friday-edition-1.6373404/putin-s-veiled-nuclear-threats-a-sign-of-weakness-says-former-russian-foreign-minister-1.6373704?presentid=webnews&ocid=msedgntp
QuoteKnowing Vladimir Putin, does it surprise you at all that he is showing little willingness to compromise right now?

It does not.

He miscalculated both the Ukrainian resistance and actually the fact that the Ukrainians, [while] being Russian brothers, are a separate and proud nation. And he miscalculated the Western resolve to stand against him.

But he wants to kind of save as much as he can from this adventure. And that's why he resorts to nuclear threats.

All this is acts of desperation, because you can't resort to nuclear threats unless you are in a very desperate position. So it's not a sign of strength; it's a sign of weakness.
And Kozyrev speculates how it might end:
QuoteAt this point, there's every sign the war may drag on for a very long time. Where do you think this ends?

It's unpredictable, but it might be rather small because there are already signs that there is considerable discontent inside the Russian [Armed] Forces. And the more the Russian soldiers see what they are doing to our brothers — because they are our brothers — the more they will probably come to their senses and start to ask questions.

There are many, many factors which might end this war rather soon, but it might be a protracted situation.


A repeat of 1991 would be nice. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on March 05, 2022, 01:59:26 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on February 28, 2022, 05:27:16 PM
Quote from: DetCord on February 28, 2022, 04:42:59 PM
Don't forget that during WWII Stalin's policy was Soviet Policy, and Soviet Policy was to "Bury them with corpses."

Probably a topic for another thread, but the idea of "Soviet human waves" winning WWII is a myth that's been thoroughly debunked by historians.  Stalin was certainly callous about the lives of Soviet troops, but this is a huge oversimplification of the cause of disproportionate Soviet casualties in WWII.

Late response and all but since you brought it up I'll address it. Your statement is a fallacy. The RKKA, for the most part and outside of specific units was a poorly trained, undisciplined, conscripted rabble. The RKKA was purposely designed this way during Stalin's tenure for them (RKKA) to be nothing more than a militia as his paranoia prevented this perceived threat from a military elite. Thus the pre-war military show trials. It wasn't until 46-48 that the Soviet Military underwent a major transformation, incurring the wrath of Stalin himself yet one that pushed to armed forces of the Soviet state toward a more professional, although highly limited facet.

Esteemed Russian military historians (current) like Sokolov, Lebedev, Mironova, and many others have written books and papers about the RKKA reflecting just this. There is a reason you can research via the web, media, government docs, and published accounts of the RKKA in WWII in western nations but not in Russia. As an example, I can find all of the information needed about a British or American unit, their causalities, losses, and vehicles destroyed via the web or by physically visiting said nations archives in person. This isn't possible in Russia. All of this information, information from nearly 80 years ago I might add, is now classified and hidden behind physical firewalls in the Russian Federation via the FSB and TSR. That's just absurd and only goes to show the lengths they'll go to to preserve the myth of the Great Patriotic War.

And not once did I state that Human Waves were the norm. You pulled that out of your ass as a straw-man in an attempt to counter, failed as it were. Even though that tactic remained a mainstay up and until the end of the war. The AFRF are currently using the same tactics of mass-encirclement that they used in WWII, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. They're also utilizing the age-old Russian tactic of tossing untrained conscripts into the fronts prior to followup units taking their place, said units being slaughtered in the process. Again, they did this WWII, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. This is called an SOP and or TTP.

I'd suggest properly educating yourself prior to making unfounded, absurd, and wholly uneducated statements of the aforementioned topics. 

The Russian Way of Warfare by Scott Boston would be a good start. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 03:15:44 AM
nerd fight!!!   :timeout:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 05, 2022, 03:26:44 AM
Quote from: DetCord on March 05, 2022, 01:59:26 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on February 28, 2022, 05:27:16 PM
Quote from: DetCord on February 28, 2022, 04:42:59 PM
Don't forget that during WWII Stalin's policy was Soviet Policy, and Soviet Policy was to "Bury them with corpses."

Probably a topic for another thread, but the idea of "Soviet human waves" winning WWII is a myth that's been thoroughly debunked by historians.  Stalin was certainly callous about the lives of Soviet troops, but this is a huge oversimplification of the cause of disproportionate Soviet casualties in WWII.

Late response and all but since you brought it up I'll address it. Your statement is a fallacy. The RKKA, for the most part and outside of specific units was a poorly trained, undisciplined, conscripted rabble. The RKKA was purposely designed this way during Stalin's tenure for them (RKKA) to be nothing more than a militia as his paranoia prevented this perceived threat from a military elite. Thus the pre-war military show trials. It wasn't until 46-48 that the Soviet Military underwent a major transformation, incurring the wrath of Stalin himself yet one that pushed to armed forces of the Soviet state toward a more professional, although highly limited facet.

Esteemed Russian military historians (current) like Sokolov, Lebedev, Mironova, and many others have written books and papers about the RKKA reflecting just this. There is a reason you can research via the web, media, government docs, and published accounts of the RKKA in WWII in western nations but not in Russia. As an example, I can find all of the information needed about a British or American unit, their causalities, losses, and vehicles destroyed via the web or by physically visiting said nations archives in person. This isn't possible in Russia. All of this information, information from nearly 80 years ago I might add, is now classified and hidden behind physical firewalls in the Russian Federation via the FSB and TSR. That's just absurd and only goes to show the lengths they'll go to to preserve the myth of the Great Patriotic War.

And not once did I state that Human Waves were the norm. You pulled that out of your ass as a straw-man in an attempt to counter, failed as it were. Even though that tactic remained a mainstay up and until the end of the war. The AFRF are currently using the same tactics of mass-encirclement that they used in WWII, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. They're also utilizing the age-old Russian tactic of tossing untrained conscripts into the fronts prior to followup units taking their place, said units being slaughtered in the process. Again, they did this WWII, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. This is called an SOP and or TTP.

I'd suggest properly educating yourself prior to making unfounded, absurd, and wholly uneducated statements of the aforementioned topics. 

The Russian Way of Warfare by Scott Boston would be a good start.

I don't know why you're getting offended by the "human waves" statement while also asserting that it's correct?  I was merely paraphrasing "bury them with corpses."

You're not making a lot of sense here.  I didn't even dispute that the Red Army was poorly trained and armed, I just said "bury them with corpses" tactics being a mainstay and winning the war is a fabrication created by Hollywood.

This notion has been thoroughly debunked by historians like Glantz so I'd likewise recommend you educate yourself.  In any case, let's drop the topic now because it's not relevant to the thread at hand.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 05, 2022, 04:04:34 AM
Quote from: Skoop on March 04, 2022, 07:32:34 PM
I feel US and Nato are becoming more belligerent and out raged everyday this goes on.  No fly seems insane right now but don't be surprised if west is unanimously clamoring for it by end of next week.  I highly suspect Putin will only nuke if we threaten Russian soil with a land force.

OK, let's do it.  And if it turns out bad we can always reload a previous save game  :hide:.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 05, 2022, 09:30:28 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 05, 2022, 04:04:34 AM
Quote from: Skoop on March 04, 2022, 07:32:34 PM
I feel US and Nato are becoming more belligerent and out raged everyday this goes on.  No fly seems insane right now but don't be surprised if west is unanimously clamoring for it by end of next week.  I highly suspect Putin will only nuke if we threaten Russian soil with a land force.

OK, let's do it.  And if it turns out bad we can always reload a previous save game  :hide:.
+1
And make sure the saves are duplicated in a separate directory in case they get overwritten
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 05, 2022, 09:36:54 AM
Let's reload back to 1995, the year before Yeltsin's re-election.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 05, 2022, 09:57:31 AM
ONLY, if I get my chest-hair back.  >:(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 05, 2022, 10:11:45 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 05, 2022, 03:26:44 AM
This notion has been thoroughly debunked by historians like Glantz so I'd likewise recommend you educate yourself.  In any case, let's drop the topic now because it's not relevant to the thread at hand.

I agree, drop it here, but would be great to see the discussion in its own thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 05, 2022, 10:45:29 AM
I'm reading Andrei Kozyrev's book Firebird right now and it charts and tracks early 1990s Russian history very well. It does also have some pro-Russian bias, in that it is the U.S. and NATO that are partially to blame for not being exactly forthcoming with admitting new nations to NATO in a way that was acceptable both to Russia and the West.

It is truly sad to gauge how close we were to being friends with Russia when we look at how that relationship has evolved into 2022.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 05, 2022, 12:19:51 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 05, 2022, 10:45:29 AM
It is truly sad to gauge how close we were to being friends with Russia when we look at how that relationship has evolved into 2022.

This is from a debate last night on Dutch TV.  This is the view of a highly acclaimed professor.  If her opinion is correct then it really doesn't matter what we have or haven't done diplomatically in recent years while Putin is in power.

https://wnl.tv/2022/03/05/hoogleraar-poetin-ziet-zichzelf-als-redder-van-russische-ziel-het-is-een-heilige-strijd/  (google translate of the article)

Professor of the history of international relations at Utrecht University, Beatrice de Graaf, thinks that the West does not sufficiently understand the intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to her, this is important, especially in possible negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. "Putin says he is the savior of the Russian soul. It is a holy battle."

According to De Graaf, Putin has increasingly cited the history of Russia in recent years. Contrary to popular belief in the West, the Soviet Union is not the most important chapter for him. He prefers to talk about the fallen empire and the Russian Orthodox Church, says De Graaf on Friday evening in Op1. "Putin says he is the one sitting on the throne."

De Graaf thinks we should get to know Putin better. Only then can negotiations with the Russian president be successful, she thinks. "The goal should be: how do we help Ukraine and how do we prevent a third world war? You achieve that goal through negotiation. The first rule of negotiation is: know your opponent. What drives your opponent and what are the values ​​that can be negotiated?"

So who is Putin and what does he want? According to De Graaf, the leader of Russia is driven by the guarding of Russian values ​​and his dream is to restore the Russian Empire. Putin sees himself as the savior of "true Christianity" and the Russian people. "That people and Christianity coincide for him," says De Graaf. "At one point he actually sat on a Byzantine throne, in a Greek monastery in Athos, the birthplace of Orthodoxy."

In many speeches, Putin says how important it is to him that he was baptized Russian, by his mother, and that the Russian people defend the values ​​of Christianity, says De Graaf. "The purity, the honour, the masculinity and the pride. Putin always says that the West has renounced those values ​​and is liberal, decadent, nihilistic and atheistic."

Guarding Orthodox values ​​even goes so far that Putin sees Russia as "the third Rome", says De Graaf. That has everything to do with the fall of Constantinople (now Istanbul) in 1453. "Moscow kept the flame alive and at some point the Moscow Patriarchate was established there."

"When you hear someone say 'we establish the Third Reich', all alarm bells go off in a historian. We've heard it before in history," she refers to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, for example. "The third Rome Putin establishes is a continuation of ancient Rome, of the empires." It shows that Putin "wants to be taken seriously as a guardian of the Russian soul", says De Graaf. "He has been saying that for twenty years and the message is getting stronger."

And he is not alone in spreading that message. The Russian Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, the spiritual leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, also sees the Russian president as "the savior" of the motherland, says De Graaf. "And the Patriarch comes from heaven. That is a big difference in how we deal with church and state. The Church has no territorial power here, only in the Vatican. In Russia there is still a theocracy, an ecclesiastical state." The Russian Orthodox Church is the largest Orthodox church in the world, with about 100 million followers.

According to the Russian-Dutch Kristina Petrasova, Kirill's influence in Russia is "enormous", she says in Op1. "Since the fall of the Soviet Union, there has been a huge revival of faith. People all go to church. It's in the culture." According to De Graaf, Kirill and Putin are spreading the message in Russia that demonic forces are active in Ukraine. And Putin said yesterday: Ukraine is the anti-Russia. That's where the evil is; the undermining of the one and indivisible Russian Empire. It must be wiped out."

But Putin is not only concerned with guarding Russian orthodoxy. He is "driven by the idea of ​​a holy Russian empire with himself as the savior of the nation", says De Graaf. That nation has been reunited in bringing all the Russian peoples together and restoring Russian glory, she says. "Putin shouts that he wants to restore the tsars and that he is a tsar himself."

To restore that Russian Empire, Russia would also have to take countries like Finland, Belarus, the Baltic States and part of Poland. According to De Graaf, an attempt to do so is unrealistic. "Putin knows that is the hard border with NATO. But this is a blueprint that lives in Russia."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 05, 2022, 12:37:30 PM
^ That's fascinating about Putin's swing towards the old school Tsarist aesthetics and accusing the West of being too "atheistic." 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 05, 2022, 12:52:27 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 05, 2022, 09:57:31 AM
ONLY, if I get my chest-hair back.  >:(

I have plenty I shave off my back with my "manscaper" if you need a refresher.

I'd been considering gluing it to my head now that I'm dating again, but I could always keep going with the old Mk.I HAT solution.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 05, 2022, 12:54:01 PM
I think an  ex-KGB officer, murderer and suspected world's richest man (https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/vladimir-putin-net-worth-2022/) while maintaining an economy equivalent to Italy uses religion cynically and manipulatively.

Not to mention admirer of Stalin.  Which face of Putin should we believe?  btw it's the 69th anniversary of Stalin's death today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 05, 2022, 02:53:46 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 05, 2022, 12:52:27 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 05, 2022, 09:57:31 AM
ONLY, if I get my chest-hair back.  >:(

I have plenty I shave off my back with my "manscaper" if you need a refresher.

I'd been considering gluing it to my head now that I'm dating again, but I could always keep going with the old Mk.I HAT solution.
Most of my friends don't know what I look like without a hat.  Bald for over 30 years now.  Started dating again a couple months ago and have purposely removed my hat so she can get used to it (or find out if she can't stand a bald guy).  So far so good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 05, 2022, 03:06:40 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 05, 2022, 02:53:46 PM

Most of my friends don't know what I look like without a hat.  Bald for over 30 years now.  Started dating again a couple months ago and have purposely removed my hat so she can get used to it (or find out if she can't stand a bald guy).  So far so good.

Well, in my case she's known me for about 24 years so she's seen the rise and fall of the hairline so no surprises there. 

Like you the ballcap is pretty well permanently attached now though. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 05, 2022, 03:10:16 PM
Pete that was a great post. I have seen mention of Putin reaching further back than the Soviet Union, to Tsarist influences.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 05, 2022, 03:17:40 PM
Pete's post reminds of the scene in "No Country for Old Men" where woody harelson's character say to Javier Bardem's assassin character "Do you even know how crazy you are ?"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 05, 2022, 03:26:58 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 05, 2022, 03:17:40 PM
Pete's post reminds of the scene in "No Country for Old Men" where woody harelson's character say to Javier Bardem's assassin character "Do you even know how crazy you are ?"

"You mean the nature of this war?"

"I mean the nature of you, Vladimir."

;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 05, 2022, 03:32:34 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 05, 2022, 03:26:58 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 05, 2022, 03:17:40 PM
Pete's post reminds of the scene in "No Country for Old Men" where woody harelson's character say to Javier Bardem's assassin character "Do you even know how crazy you are ?"

"You mean the nature of this war?"

"I mean the nature of you, Vladimir."

;D

Vlads whole manifesto per say.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 05, 2022, 04:36:33 PM
Russia is mobilizing armor from Siberia to move to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/AndrewScheidl/status/1499385584028110848

Quote

Khabarovsk is near the Pacific.

If these are being mobilized now, it suggests Russian losses have been extremely high, and that they've realized that 65% of Russia's army wasn't enough.

The war is going to take much longer. These will take at least a week to reach Ukraine.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 05, 2022, 04:48:05 PM
^Wow. I hope we can send AT weapons over there fast enough.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on March 05, 2022, 05:32:21 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 05, 2022, 02:53:46 PM
Bald talk

Not to sidetrack too much from the bit at hand, but do any of you hair-less types (of which I am one) marvel at the dreams in which you do have hair?  Seems odd that that sort of stuff creeps in from time to time 'lo these many moons without the topside mop being a thing.

Also, I love when the kids discover old photos of me and go, "No way; you had hair!?!"

I laugh too and tell my Son with all seriousness to enjoy it while he can.  And that you get gray in your pubes as well.  No one ever warned me of that bit, let me tell you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 05, 2022, 05:35:19 PM
I started losing my hair at 20 and don't miss it at all.

Sky News crew ambushed:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 05, 2022, 05:38:11 PM
And hundreds of people sign up to join the Ukrainian Army. Utmost respect for them, volunteering to go into a war headlong. They've got giant cajones. Also from Sky News.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 05, 2022, 06:07:22 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 05, 2022, 04:36:33 PM
Russia is mobilizing armor from Siberia to move to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/AndrewScheidl/status/1499385584028110848

Quote

Khabarovsk is near the Pacific.

If these are being mobilized now, it suggests Russian losses have been extremely high, and that they've realized that 65% of Russia's army wasn't enough.

The war is going to take much longer. These will take at least a week to reach Ukraine.



Looking at where Khabarovosk is on the map.  It's right on the border with China approx 700 km NNE of Vladivostok.  There border skirmishes are a long time past but this further indicates at least tacit agreement between Putin and Xi over the invasion.  That's if the tweet is true, the video is attributed to Igor Girkin which is the nom de guerre of the alleged Russian war criminal Igor Strelkov.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

Strelkov is the alias.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 06:07:34 PM
if I posted all the shit Im finding here I wouldnt have time to find it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 06:11:16 PM
this is what russia lost yesterday alone:

- 1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft (pictured)
- 2 Su-34 strike aircraft
- 2 Su-25 close air support aircraft
- 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
- 2 Mi-8 transport helicopter
- 1 Orlan-10 UAV

all kills verified by at least 2 photos.  Osinttechnical on twitter
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 05, 2022, 06:16:17 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 06:11:16 PM
this is what russia lost yesterday alone:

- 1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft (pictured)
- 2 Su-34 strike aircraft
- 2 Su-25 close air support aircraft
- 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
- 2 Mi-8 transport helicopter
- 1 Orlan-10 UAV

all kills verified by at least 2 photos.  Osinttechnical on twitter
From the BBC (Big Bad Crash)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 06:22:13 PM
that might have been from 2014.  theres a lot of debate over it.
but either way a great clip.
Ive also stumbled on what seems a pretty good reason for the stalled convoy in the north.
the Ukrainians have flooded the area
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNBPbNZWUAIpek_?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 05, 2022, 06:27:17 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 05, 2022, 03:32:34 PM

Vlads whole manifesto per say.

  As his troops continued to run into stiff resistance in Ukraine, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia delivered an ominous message to Ukrainians on Saturday, telling government leaders they might lose their statehood and likening the withering sanctions imposed on his country to a "declaration of war."

"The current leadership needs to understand that if they continue doing what they are doing, they risk the future of Ukrainian statehood," Mr. Putin said.


   This is just so twisted.  Putin attacks a state, and then says if they resist they are risking the future of their state?  What do you say to something like that?  Is he offering some kind
of deal?  Like surrender and we will leave?  (Then why did he attack in the first place?  It makes no sense at all.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 05, 2022, 06:44:46 PM
The video of the helicopter is insane...it went down in under two seconds!

And the flooding is very Dutch of Ukraine. A lot of Russians are going to die, on top of the thousands already killed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 05, 2022, 07:10:53 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 06:11:16 PM
this is what russia lost yesterday alone:

- 1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft (pictured)
- 2 Su-34 strike aircraft
- 2 Su-25 close air support aircraft
- 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
- 2 Mi-8 transport helicopter
- 1 Orlan-10 UAV

all kills verified by at least 2 photos.  Osinttechnical on twitter

If the claims are based on photos or video footage, what kind of verification method was used to make sure the photos or footage were for the day specified? Particularly in the case of a photo, the plane might have crashed days ago even if the photo was taken today.

In that guy's twitter feed, I see a new report of a request by the Ukrainians for the US to send F16's to Poland so the Poles can send MiG29's to Ukraine. I thought Stoltenberg was clear that wasn't going to happen, and I'm hoping it's not seriously being considered.

As much as I admire the tenacity of the Ukrainians, the requests by the governments seem a little out of touch with reality. I have no idea why the Ukrainians think NATO would create a no-fly zone. Totally unrealistic.

Quote
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 06:22:13 PM
that might have been from 2014.  theres a lot of debate over it.
but either way a great clip.
Ive also stumbled on what seems a pretty good reason for the stalled convoy in the north.
the Ukrainians have flooded the area

It's still rasputitsa season, it might be natural.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 05, 2022, 07:22:27 PM
Russian aviation has seen better days....

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44602/the-russian-air-force-just-had-a-terrible-day-over-ukraine (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44602/the-russian-air-force-just-had-a-terrible-day-over-ukraine)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 07:26:36 PM
a lot of the twitter feeds Ive been looking at are actively trying to cross reference all numbers and if anything they are being very conservative.
the calls for aircraft and no fly zones are simple politics.  the Ukraine leadership is in constant contact and knows the current limits of EU/NATO help.
its good to see that you still observe the world in black and white  ::)

ps:  they also try to geolocate the shot down planes whenever possible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 07:36:22 PM
question:  how fat can you get as a russian pilot?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 05, 2022, 07:46:17 PM
It looks like War in the East players would have been able to help out the Russian high command planning.

Someone needs to read their commander reports on truck losses. The key to winning WITE

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1500213968576684037?s=21
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 07:48:41 PM
no comrade, russian army has no time for silly wargames, we are professional army   :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 07:52:39 PM
so just checked the ADSB flight tracking site and noticed that many USAF planes have gone dark.
they might not be flying at all but I would be really surprised if that was the case.
this also led to another question as I was looking at the map.
when does russia close its airspace to all foreign commercial flights?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 05, 2022, 08:00:26 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 07:26:36 PM
a lot of the twitter feeds Ive been looking at are actively trying to cross reference all numbers and if anything they are being very conservative.
the calls for aircraft and no fly zones are simple politics.  the Ukraine leadership is in constant contact and knows the current limits of EU/NATO help.
its good to see that you still observe the world in black and white  ::)

ps:  they also try to geolocate the shot down planes whenever possible.

I hope it's just politics and purely for "internal" use.

Zelensky being an actor, it's hard to tell when he's sincere or when he's just acting.

There's a lot of grey in the world, but speculating about a NATO controlled no-fly zone in Ukraine isn't very grey in my opinion. That means war with Russia.

That flooded area, looking towards the south, seems to be here:

(https://i.imgur.com/jS5WSbv.jpg)

Even in dry conditions in the satellite view, it looks like it would normally turn into a swamp during the rasputitsa season. Several rivers and streams run through the area.

One of the roads the convoy can take to Kiev is through Demydiv (the yellow line). It's hard to tell if the road is elevated. The convoy could take another route if it's flooded.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 05, 2022, 08:02:24 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 05, 2022, 06:44:46 PM
The video of the helicopter is insane...it went down in under two seconds!

And the flooding is very Dutch of Ukraine. A lot of Russians are going to die, on top of the thousands already killed.

  I thought Stingers were purely infrared.  It looks like this chopper might have picked up a radar signal and been in a hurry to go low when a radar-guided missile hit it with a pretty big warhead.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Atilla60 on March 05, 2022, 08:43:16 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 05, 2022, 12:54:01 PM
I think an  ex-KGB officer, murderer and suspected world's richest man (https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/vladimir-putin-net-worth-2022/) while maintaining an economy equivalent to Italy uses religion cynically and manipulatively.

Not to mention admirer of Stalin.  Which face of Putin should we believe?  btw it's the 69th anniversary of Stalin's death today.

There's no such thing as an ex-KGB officer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 05, 2022, 08:49:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 07:52:39 PM
so just checked the ADSB flight tracking site and noticed that many USAF planes have gone dark.
they might not be flying at all but I would be really surprised if that was the case.
this also led to another question as I was looking at the map.
when does russia close its airspace to all foreign commercial flights?

Check back during the day, it gets busy, but late at night and very early morning, military air traffic, at least the kind that can be tracked is nominal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sigwolf on March 05, 2022, 09:04:56 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 05, 2022, 08:49:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 07:52:39 PM
so just checked the ADSB flight tracking site and noticed that many USAF planes have gone dark.
they might not be flying at all but I would be really surprised if that was the case.
this also led to another question as I was looking at the map.
when does russia close its airspace to all foreign commercial flights?

Check back during the day, it gets busy, but late at night and very early morning, military air traffic, at least the kind that can be tracked is nominal.
As for when Russia closes it's airspace to foreign commercial flights... how many are risking their passengers flying through Russian airspace in current conditions anyway?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 09:35:52 PM
a lot more then you might expect.
look for yourself:

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 09:38:37 PM
@ JH  after the last week and my natural insomnia Ive gotten used to a pattern and to have no EW planes up at all is different.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 05, 2022, 09:42:28 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 09:38:37 PM
@ JH  after the last week and my natural insomnia Ive gotten used to a pattern and to have no EW planes up at all is different.

Not based on my observations and I'm on ADS-B too. Right now I see a total of 4 aircraft over europe, 3 C-130Js and a single Romanian drone. Totally normal from what I've been watching at this hour over the last two weeks.

EDIT: A KC-135 Stratotanker just popped up as I posted.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 05, 2022, 09:51:45 PM
Quote from: Atilla60 on March 05, 2022, 08:43:16 PM
There's no such thing as an ex-KGB officer.
I stand corrected.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Atilla60 on March 05, 2022, 09:55:36 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 05, 2022, 09:51:45 PM
Quote from: Atilla60 on March 05, 2022, 08:43:16 PM
There's no such thing as an ex-KGB officer.
I stand corrected.
:)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 05, 2022, 11:09:02 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 05, 2022, 12:54:01 PM
I think an  ex-KGB officer, murderer and suspected world's richest man (https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/vladimir-putin-net-worth-2022/) while maintaining an economy equivalent to Italy uses religion cynically and manipulatively.

No doubt. So did Stalin once his back was against the wall. Though in Putin's case he has been riding the wave of Orthodox populism since the fall of the USSR, so he has been more consistent.

I had suspected he was going more Tsarist than Stalinist, but I hadn't heard so many details. Now the question is, how far he actually believes his own propaganda. If he does, then you have a basis for working a negotiation. If he doesn't, then you still sort of might have a basis at second-hand, insofar as he finds the maskirovka useful -- but then you have to expect him to zag in his true underlying direction(s) occasionally.

Btw, I've also heard that Russia's economy is equivalent to Florida's.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 05, 2022, 11:18:44 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 05, 2022, 04:36:33 PM
Russia is mobilizing armor from Siberia to move to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/AndrewScheidl/status/1499385584028110848

Quote

Khabarovsk is near the Pacific.

If these are being mobilized now, it suggests Russian losses have been extremely high, and that they've realized that 65% of Russia's army wasn't enough.

The war is going to take much longer. These will take at least a week to reach Ukraine.

I can't decide if it's a little late to start moving the Second Strategic Echelon or not! (...or if this is the Third Echelon.  ::) )

Anyway, hey, if they want to clog up their unprepared logistic backfield even more, then that sounds like good news to me! Now Ebay can be selling some slightly used models in the T-80 family.  >:D (Though some of their legendary infantry carriers may be more practical for most enthusiasts.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 06, 2022, 12:57:57 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 05, 2022, 09:42:28 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2022, 09:38:37 PM
@ JH  after the last week and my natural insomnia Ive gotten used to a pattern and to have no EW planes up at all is different.

Not based on my observations and I'm on ADS-B too. Right now I see a total of 4 aircraft over europe, 3 C-130Js and a single Romanian drone. Totally normal from what I've been watching at this hour over the last two weeks.

EDIT: A KC-135 Stratotanker just popped up as I posted.
Which website are you guys using? The exchange?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 01:04:08 AM
https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-wargame-before-the-war-russia-attacks-ukraine/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 08:09:40 AM
Without getting political, it's disheartening to see how many people support Russia in this conflict within several of the Facebook groups to which I belong. Generally aware that there are idiots on the internet, but this is ridiculous. They also mostly seem to be from the same region...mostly. So, I suspect this support has less to do with supporting Russia and more to do with defying NATO, the US and the west.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 06, 2022, 08:39:59 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 05, 2022, 11:09:02 PM

Btw, I've also heard that Russia's economy is equivalent to Florida's.

  I've also heard "Texas" and/or "Italy"

  I've been puzzling over how anyone would negotiate anything with Putin.  It seems like he thinks everyone already knows what he wants...but that doesn't seem clear since he keeps adding threats
with respect to sort of random things like the "statehood" (ie being a sovereign entity) of Ukraine or that entities that sanction him have "declared war" on him.  Overall, essentially he seems to be offering: "Let me take over Ukraine or else I'll take over Ukraine."  Not much
real room for negotiating there.

And:

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Sunday identified three areas where the US could take additional steps to ramp up pressure on Russia as its war in Ukraine rages on: a ban on Russian oil imports, a declaration of war crimes, and help facilitating delivery of Polish fighter jets to Ukraine.

In separate answers in an interview on ABC News, Thomas-Greenfield mentioned those areas where the US was reviewing options and coordinating with allies.

She said President Biden was "in discussion with NATO allies" about a potential ban on Russian oil imports. "The President is working with his advisers, security advisers, as well as his energy advisers, on how to address these issues," she said, adding the White House is mindful of how such a ban might affect gas prices.

She said the US has been "in close consultations with the Polish government, as well as with our other NATO allies," on the notion of facilitating a transfer of Soviet-era fighter jets from Poland to Ukraine.

"We have not in any way opposed the Polish government providing these jets to Ukraine and we're working, as you noted, to see how we can backfill for them," she said, a reference to a plan being formulated to send F-16s to Poland.


  And, it might be worth pointing out that since no war has been declared, Russia can't claim some kind of exclusion of weapons to a belligerent ( which is in fact perfectly legal, ie the old law of war did not exclude neutrals from supplying belligerents anyway), and I guess if Russia declared war on Ukraine, it would be equivalent to recognizing Ukraine as a legitimate state -- which actually -- Putin more or less accidently did in 2014 by siezing only a few regions of Ukraine.  Why not the rest?  Isn't that a de facto recognition?  On the other hand, Turkey has already said the invasion of Ukraine is a war ("technically") so look out for some strait closure action maybe.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 11:02:46 AM
dont know if Ive mentioned it before but check out warontherocks.com
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 11:03:45 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 06, 2022, 08:39:59 AM

  And, it might be worth pointing out that since no war has been declared, Russia can't claim some kind of exclusion of weapons to a belligerent ( which is in fact perfectly legal, ie the old law of war did not exclude neutrals from supplying belligerents anyway), and I guess if Russia declared war on Ukraine, it would be equivalent to recognizing Ukraine as a legitimate state -- which actually -- Putin more or less accidently did in 2014 by siezing only a few regions of Ukraine.  Why not the rest?  Isn't that a de facto recognition?  On the other hand, Turkey has already said the invasion of Ukraine is a war ("technically") so look out for some strait closure action maybe.

You've made this statement a couple times, about there having been no formal declaration of war, but I'm not sure of the relevance. The 1949 Geneva Convention applies with or without a formal declaration. Indeed, the Conventions apply to all cases of armed conflict between two or more signatory nations, even in the absence of a declaration of war.  Furthermore, although Putin has described the invasion as a "special Military Operation", I believe it is arguable that his statement as to the cause, intent and grounds for stopping it, might saitsfy the criteria for a formal declaration.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 06, 2022, 11:09:34 AM
Does 'Special Military Operation' = 'Invasion' = 'War'?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 11:19:05 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 06, 2022, 11:09:34 AM
Does 'Special Military Operation' = 'Invasion' = 'War'?

I believe as a matter of international law, the semantics are irrelevant. It is the content of the official proclamation that is controlling.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 06, 2022, 11:28:26 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 11:03:45 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 06, 2022, 08:39:59 AM

  And, it might be worth pointing out that since no war has been declared, Russia can't claim some kind of exclusion of weapons to a belligerent ( which is in fact perfectly legal, ie the old law of war did not exclude neutrals from supplying belligerents anyway), and I guess if Russia declared war on Ukraine, it would be equivalent to recognizing Ukraine as a legitimate state -- which actually -- Putin more or less accidently did in 2014 by siezing only a few regions of Ukraine.  Why not the rest?  Isn't that a de facto recognition?  On the other hand, Turkey has already said the invasion of Ukraine is a war ("technically") so look out for some strait closure action maybe.

You've made this statement a couple times, about there having been no formal declaration of war, but I'm not sure of the relevance. The 1949 Geneva Convention applies with or without a formal declaration. Indeed, the Conventions apply to all cases of armed conflict between two or more signatory nations, even in the absence of a declaration of war.  Furthermore, although Putin has described the invasion as a "special Military Operation", I believe it is arguable that his statement as to the cause, intent and grounds for stopping it, might saitsfy the criteria for a formal declaration.

  Putin seems a little reluctant to accept it as a formal war.  I'm not sure why.  Maybe because declaring war on a state implies accepting it as a legitimate state?  As I keep mentioning, Turkey says it is a war which is a circumstance that might trigger closing the straits, which seems to imply a limited time period of some kind in the back of Putin's mind, ie that the war (or whatever) would be "over" (or whatever) before there are problems for the Russian Navy taking the Straits to the Aegean.  Even if there is a war, the ships can go back to the Black Sea.  As non-belligerents the ships should be able to go back via some other route, but a state of war could limit a lot of things for the Russian Navy.
   Anyway, the rather strange implication might be that this "operation" has only a few more weeks to run at least in Putin's original scheme.  So maybe his original guess was that the whole thing would be over and he would start negotiating in late March.  Of course, now the operation might be set to go on indefinitely.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 06, 2022, 11:31:41 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 11:02:46 AM
dont know if Ive mentioned it before but check out warontherocks.com

Great link, thanks!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 06, 2022, 11:32:44 AM
I haven't seen any new reports on any of Turkey's plans for the straits in a few days at least.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 06, 2022, 11:33:24 AM
In Russia you can end up in jail for 5 to 15 years if you mention the words war of invasion.  In that context a formal declaration of war is out of the question.  You have to be consistent in Newspeak to your population.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 06, 2022, 11:39:54 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 11:03:45 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 06, 2022, 08:39:59 AM

  And, it might be worth pointing out that since no war has been declared, Russia can't claim some kind of exclusion of weapons to a belligerent ( which is in fact perfectly legal, ie the old law of war did not exclude neutrals from supplying belligerents anyway), and I guess if Russia declared war on Ukraine, it would be equivalent to recognizing Ukraine as a legitimate state -- which actually -- Putin more or less accidently did in 2014 by siezing only a few regions of Ukraine.  Why not the rest?  Isn't that a de facto recognition?  On the other hand, Turkey has already said the invasion of Ukraine is a war ("technically") so look out for some strait closure action maybe.

You've made this statement a couple times, about there having been no formal declaration of war, but I'm not sure of the relevance. The 1949 Geneva Convention applies with or without a formal declaration. Indeed, the Conventions apply to all cases of armed conflict between two or more signatory nations, even in the absence of a declaration of war.  Furthermore, although Putin has described the invasion as a "special Military Operation", I believe it is arguable that his statement as to the cause, intent and grounds for stopping it, might saitsfy the criteria for a formal declaration.

I am almost wondering if the whole idea of a formal DOW was abandoned in the last century. I believe the last US DOW was against the minor Axis countries in 1942 for example. So yes, any armed conflict has to apply.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 06, 2022, 11:40:47 AM
Well, the Ukranians are our buddies and have invited us over. So if special military operations is not nasty war, we could go over and have special military operations along with our friends! No foul!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on March 06, 2022, 12:05:03 PM
Quote from: solops on March 06, 2022, 11:40:47 AM
Well, the Ukranians are our buddies and have invited us over. So if special military operations is not nasty war, we could go over and have special military operations along with our friends! No foul!
I was thinking the same. A special military operation in the west of the country.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: solops on March 06, 2022, 11:40:47 AM
Well, the Ukranians are our buddies and have invited us over. So if special military operations is not nasty war, we could go over and have special military operations along with our friends! No foul!

Why are the Ukrainians "our buddies"?  Who do you mean by "our" and how exactly are they "buddies"?  Assuming you are referring to the United States, what strategic advantage does close alignment with Ukraine give and what strategic benefit would the US achieve by engaging in an armed conflict with Russia?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 06, 2022, 12:32:46 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 06, 2022, 11:31:41 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 11:02:46 AM
dont know if Ive mentioned it before but check out warontherocks.com

Great link, thanks!
Been a fan of Warontherocks for a while
good link on the back of the envelop calculations for the logistics quagmire the Russians are facing and why the Ukranians are eating the bear in a 1000 bites.  This was written prior to the invasion and was a look at how NATO would respond with an attack but the logistics lesson is mirroring the debacle the Russians are now facing
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 06, 2022, 12:45:59 PM
I thought this cartoon about the war was hilarious.  Trying not to infringe on copywrites so here's a link.

https://www.timesfreepress.com/cartoons/2022/feb/28/bear/5308/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 06, 2022, 12:54:34 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 06, 2022, 11:32:44 AM
I haven't seen any new reports on any of Turkey's plans for the straits in a few days at least.

  The Turks are now suggesting that now might be a good time for a ceasefire.  That might relieve them of the problem of what to do "technically" with the straits since I would think that
technically a ceasefire is not an active war so Turkey won't have to worry about ships passing the straits in and out of the Black Sea.  The US has a carrier group in the Aegean so things might
get testy in a week or two if there's no ceasefire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 06, 2022, 01:07:22 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: solops on March 06, 2022, 11:40:47 AM
Well, the Ukrainians are our buddies and have invited us over. So if special military operations is not nasty war, we could go over and have special military operations along with our friends! No foul!

Why are the Ukrainians "our buddies"?  Who do you mean by "our" and how exactly are they "buddies"?  Assuming you are referring to the United States, what strategic advantage does close alignment with Ukraine give and what strategic benefit would the US achieve by engaging in an armed conflict with Russia?

This is easy, given the world today. I consider them buddies because: They trade with us and our allies in a civilized fashion ( any predatory industrial espionage in kept to a civilized level, unlike China). They conduct themselves in a more or less civilized fashion, compared to so many holes in Asia and Africa. They share more of our historical and cultural values than many countries in other parts of the world. They do not crowd the streets and chant "Death to America". They side with us on most geopolitical issues rather than our enemies and or rivals (Think "Russia" and "China"). While they have been accused of being corrupt, I would, after looking at Washington, blush and reply that they are not THAT bad. They do not challenge us all over the world. And we have made multiple promises to them, both specific and implied that we are their friends and will help them. And lastly, THEY ARE FIGHTING FRIGGING PUTIN, and they need our help. I do not need a formal treaty of buddyship to know if someone is deserving of help or a boot to the rear. I do NOT believe that cold political or economic advantage should be the sole guide as to who or when we give our aid. And I have lost more than one multi-player game to prove it. And I think it is in our best interest to stop Putin. Now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 01:24:20 PM
Quote from: solops on March 06, 2022, 01:07:22 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: solops on March 06, 2022, 11:40:47 AM
Well, the Ukrainians are our buddies and have invited us over. So if special military operations is not nasty war, we could go over and have special military operations along with our friends! No foul!

Why are the Ukrainians "our buddies"?  Who do you mean by "our" and how exactly are they "buddies"?  Assuming you are referring to the United States, what strategic advantage does close alignment with Ukraine give and what strategic benefit would the US achieve by engaging in an armed conflict with Russia?

This is easy, given the world today. I consider them buddies because: They trade with us and our allies in a civilized fashion ( any predatory industrial espionage in kept to a civilized level, unlike China). They conduct themselves in a more or less civilized fashion, compared to so many holes in Asia and Africa. They share more of our historical and cultural values than many countries in other parts of the world. They do not crowd the streets and chant "Death to America". They side with us on most geopolitical issues rather than our enemies and or rivals (Think "Russia" and "China"). While they have been accused of being corrupt, I would, after looking at Washington, blush and reply that they are not THAT bad. They do not challenge us all over the world. And we have made multiple promises to them, both specific and implied that we are their friends and will help them. And lastly, THEY ARE FIGHTING FRIGGING PUTIN, and they need our help. I do not need a formal treaty of buddyship to know if someone is deserving of help or a boot to the rear. I do NOT believe that cold political or economic advantage should be the sole guide as to who or when we give our aid. And I have lost more than one multi-player game to prove it. And I think it is in our best interest to stop Putin. Now.

Thank God you aren't the one making the decisions whether we go to war or not. You're basically willing to start World War III in order to "get" Putin and support a group of people who loosely share your values. By your own admission, you care not that there is no formal defensive alliance, only that it "seems" like the right thing to do. 

Just brilliant.  :idiot2:

Miraculously, there is still no general state of war in Europe or across the globe and we should be doing EVERYTHING to make sure it stays that way.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/ukraine-and-a-guide-to-avoiding-world-war-iii/ (https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/ukraine-and-a-guide-to-avoiding-world-war-iii/)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 06, 2022, 01:47:34 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 01:24:20 PM
Quote from: solops on March 06, 2022, 01:07:22 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: solops on March 06, 2022, 11:40:47 AM
Well, the Ukrainians are our buddies and have invited us over. So if special military operations is not nasty war, we could go over and have special military operations along with our friends! No foul!

Why are the Ukrainians "our buddies"?  Who do you mean by "our" and how exactly are they "buddies"?  Assuming you are referring to the United States, what strategic advantage does close alignment with Ukraine give and what strategic benefit would the US achieve by engaging in an armed conflict with Russia?

This is easy, given the world today. I consider them buddies because: They trade with us and our allies in a civilized fashion ( any predatory industrial espionage in kept to a civilized level, unlike China). They conduct themselves in a more or less civilized fashion, compared to so many holes in Asia and Africa. They share more of our historical and cultural values than many countries in other parts of the world. They do not crowd the streets and chant "Death to America". They side with us on most geopolitical issues rather than our enemies and or rivals (Think "Russia" and "China"). While they have been accused of being corrupt, I would, after looking at Washington, blush and reply that they are not THAT bad. They do not challenge us all over the world. And we have made multiple promises to them, both specific and implied that we are their friends and will help them. And lastly, THEY ARE FIGHTING FRIGGING PUTIN, and they need our help. I do not need a formal treaty of buddyship to know if someone is deserving of help or a boot to the rear. I do NOT believe that cold political or economic advantage should be the sole guide as to who or when we give our aid. And I have lost more than one multi-player game to prove it. And I think it is in our best interest to stop Putin. Now.

Thank God you aren't the one making the decisions whether we go to war or not. You're basically willing to start World War III in order to "get" Putin and support a group of people who loosely share your values. By your own admission, you care not that there is no formal defensive alliance, only that it "seems" like the right thing to do. 

Just brilliant.  :idiot2:

Miraculously, there is still no general state of war in Europe or across the globe and we should be doing EVERYTHING to make sure it stays that way.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/ukraine-and-a-guide-to-avoiding-world-war-iii/ (https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/ukraine-and-a-guide-to-avoiding-world-war-iii/)
"Thank God you aren't the one making the decisions whether we go to war or not."   Absolutely.

"You're basically willing to start World War III in order to "get" Putin and support a group of people who loosely share your values."   Nope, not WWIII. And We share far more than that, as I believe I said. And it is more than that, it is Putin's actions, threats and plans that have an equal weight, as well as our own self-interest. And I do not advocate attacking Putin, I advocate active generous support for Ukraine. I reject inaction due to fear. 

"By your own admission, you care not that there is no formal defensive alliance, only that it "seems" like the right thing to do."     Yes.  I would never be so <edit> shy as to allow lack of a formal declaration to keep me from doing the right thing in the face of evil. We are not there yet with Putin, so far as war is concerned, but we are certainly to the point where aiding his victims is both necessary and in our best long-term interest. The degree of that aid does seem to be the subject of some dispute.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 06, 2022, 02:37:48 PM
Jar I appreciate you talking us hawks off the ledge of wwiii.  But this is becoming bigger than nato, this could shape the next 100 years and give all bad actors in the world a blueprint on how to let nukes do douchebag bidding.  It's like America finding out about the holocaust in 1940, should FDR act or continue to cave to isolationist, sooner or later we'd be drawn in.

But to chill from my over dramatics, I watched some drones built under a joint program between Ukraine and Turkey.  They looked really effective and have accounted for scores of Russian vehicles.  I think a 100 predator drones to the Ukraine asap is the way to go.  Forget the no fly and polish migs.  If you flood the airspace with hundreds of attack drones, this will be a decisive game changer.  Plus we still maintain the plausible deniability.  Drones and full oil embargo would end this in a month.  But still doesn't prevent Putin from nuking the world with the "If I can't have it, no one will".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 06, 2022, 03:26:16 PM
Protests spreading across Russia:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60640204
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 06, 2022, 05:36:59 PM
WW2 weapons in Ukraine - A member of the pro-Ukrainian volunteer Donbas Battalion in Donetsk in 2014 with a DP-27 light machine gun.

(https://i.redd.it/44w5fc9d8tl81.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 06, 2022, 05:42:10 PM
Probably posted before, but worth posting again: https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor (https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor)

Photos and videos linked to locations on the map.

That video of the helicopter being shot down was taken north of Kiev, it's the red pin in Kozarovychi.

QuoteJar I appreciate you talking us hawks off the ledge of wwiii.  But this is becoming bigger than nato, this could shape the next 100 years and give all bad actors in the world a blueprint on how to let nukes do douchebag bidding.  It's like America finding out about the holocaust in 1940, should FDR act or continue to cave to isolationist, sooner or later we'd be drawn in.

Nuclear weapons give states some freedom to act without fear of military intervention by other countries, that has always been the case.

There's also the sad but simple truth that NATO's options for intervention with conventional weapons are very limited.

Air strikes are the only immediate option, and it will be difficult to hit targets on the Ukrainian/Russian border due to Russian AA defences and distance from NATO airfields (which will probably be targeted by missile strikes immediately, just like NATO ships in the Mediterranean and Black Sea). It will take weeks of build-up before an air campaign will be able to reliably disrupt ground operations.

NATO's forces will take weeks to organize in general. The Cold War infrastructure for moving troops from Western Europe to the border between the two Germanys is no longer in place, and that was only a very short distance compared to moving troops to central Ukraine.

NATO's (or the US/UK) window of opportunity to act was acknowledging the Budapest Memorandum and intervening in 2014 when only limited Russian forces were involved, but that didn't happen. Now, NATO simply isn't prepared.

As conventional warfare is less feasible for both sides, that might make nuclear warfare more attractive in the case of a war if it is the only method of striking the enemy aside from cruise missiles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 06:11:43 PM
People who are talking about NATO and the US engaging in direct kinetic war with Russia at the risk of escalation to nuclear holocaust are fooling themselves and/or are detached from reality. This is simply not a possibility in the modern age and must absolutely be a last case defensive scenario after all other options have been exhausted.

This is not to suggest that NATO and the West should be doing nothing. To the contrary, I fully support measures aimed at altering Putin's cost-benefit analysis by making the war so cost prohibitive that he looks for a way out. These measures are largely what NATO is doing:

1. Sanctions aimed at crippling the Russian economy
2. Arming Ukraine with lethal weaponry that continue to tip the scales and make Russia pay a heavy price in men and material.

These measures can and should be built upon until Moscow gets the message, but it must be done wisely and with caution. Threading this "policy needle" is very difficult. It means punishing Russia while simultaneously engaging in direct talks, both to avoid accidental escalation and to clearly communicate the aim of Western sanctions. it is an extremely difficult balance to strike and so far, it seems to me that nobody with authority from the West is really communicating to Russia exactly what will result in a reduction or removal of sanctions. Without this, they are not as effective and the risk of escalation remains high.  In other words, even sanctions could provoke Moscow by convincing them that a Western military intervention is imminent, or that sanctions are part of a broader US regime.  This may  cause Putin to strike back against NATO targets and plausibly escalate to a nuclear war that no one wins...this is simply too ghastly to contemplate.

So, while we are arming Ukraine and crushing Russia with sanctions, there needs to be very open lines of communication and dialogue. This will help avoid miscalculations and mistakes, while also signaling to Russia what it must do in order to get out of this very bad situation.  Otherwise, a lack of clarity risks everything while also undermining coercive bargaining. If this dialogue is happening behind the scenes, then continuing the current strategy — even escalating it — is a feasible way to help Ukraine without significantly raising the specter of a US-Russia shooting war, something that I have been arguing all along must be avoided at all costs.

Seriously, anyone who thinks getting involved in a shooting war with Russia is necessary or advisable is a fool. I'm sorry...there is no other way to put it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 06, 2022, 06:24:49 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 06:11:43 PM
Seriously, anyone who thinks getting involved in a shooting war with Russia is necessary or advisable is a fool. I'm sorry...there is no other way to put it.

Indeed.

-

As might be expected, both NATO member states and EU countries all have their own ideas on how to deal with this crisis. Though statements by the EU and the US government are widely acknowledged, the precise interpretation varies. This continues to lead to various misunderstandings and "no, we won't be doing that after all" statements by someone on a higher political level after something was announced.

As Jarhead mentioned, the West needs to give Putin some way to de-escalate. An "off-ramp"

At the moment, the West is primarily busy with punishing Putin. On the other hand, for all the talk about Putin's mental stability, the Russian government listens to the measures the Western governments want to implement and responds. By saying delivery of aircraft or enforcing a no-fly zone will be seen as an act of war/participation in the conflict, for example. I don't get the idea that the Western governments are listening to Putins fears and anxieties which he claims make this war inevitable.

It's as if the West and Russia are listening to a monologue from the other side and respond to that in their own way, but are not talking to the other side.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 06, 2022, 06:35:45 PM
Emotionally I would love nothing more than to see Putin's war met with utter obliteration by NATO air strikes.

Logically, though, I totally agree with Jarhead.  It simply can't be done.  There's a real possibility that nuclear weapons could come into play even without NATO involvement.  It'd be virtually assured if NATO got directly involved. 

Putin's risk calculus is dangerously faulty right now and he simply has too much power and control to try to count on any cooler heads moderating him.

The farthest NATO should go is military aid, possibly as far as providing aircraft like is being proposed.   

Worrying if Putin will just take our "inaction" here is an invitation to go further isn't a problem based on where his future ambitions would lie.  There's already a line in the sand and that's the membership of the Baltic and Eastern Europe in NATO.   

I don't think he's going to be able to cross that line even if he's willing.  The war in Ukraine is going to break the Russians, even if they defeat the Ukrainian army in the field and take the cities.  The economic damage and inability to occupy the country effectively is going to have Putin's hands uncomfortably full for a long time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 07:06:09 PM
and what happens when putin is so fucked across the board that he decides his off ramp is a demonstration strike in the Ukraine?
then what the fuck does NATO do?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 06, 2022, 07:10:49 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 07:06:09 PM
and what happens when putin is so fucked across the board that he decides his off ramp is a demonstration strike in the Ukraine?
then what the fuck does NATO do?

I don't think anyone has a good answer for that. 

I have it on really good authority from a friend who I trust and has a ton of info that I don't generally talk about that the general consensus is "nothing".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 07:29:38 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1500465032966062082

just wow
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 07:31:16 PM
I just dont see how this ends well as long as putin is in power
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 06, 2022, 07:33:13 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 06:11:43 PM
People who are talking about NATO and the US engaging in direct kinetic war with Russia at the risk of escalation to nuclear holocaust are fooling themselves and/or are detached from reality. This is simply not a possibility in the modern age and must absolutely be a last case defensive scenario after all other options have been exhausted.

This is not to suggest that NATO and the West should be doing nothing. To the contrary, I fully support measures aimed at altering Putin's cost-benefit analysis by making the war so cost prohibitive that he looks for a way out. These measures are largely what NATO is doing:

1. Sanctions aimed at crippling the Russian economy
2. Arming Ukraine with lethal weaponry that continue to tip the scales and make Russia pay a heavy price in men and material.
Agree 100%. This is the position I have been advocating. I would pull out all the stops to give them what they need to stop Putin. Drag the fight out, fill body bags and give the sanctions more and more time. And stop buying the d---ned crude. I am retired from a career in the oil business. There is slack production around the world and the U.S. can EASILY pick up the slack in a year if the oil biz is allowed to.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 06, 2022, 07:36:02 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 07:31:16 PM
I just dont see how this ends well as long as putin is in power
Very sticky problem.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 06, 2022, 07:41:28 PM
A helmet cam of Ukrainian Special Police hunting Russian tanks with RPGs. Video released today.

Seems like they got a couple.

Interesting that in the beginning of the video you can hear a small drone, but does not appear on camera.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYogJLQ5YAc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYogJLQ5YAc)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 07:59:03 PM
saw that earlier and Im still wondering how these guys are taking out ERA equipped tanks with rpgs so consistently.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 06, 2022, 08:22:48 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 07:59:03 PM
saw that earlier and Im still wondering how these guys are taking out ERA equipped tanks with rpgs so consistently.

I thought the same.  That's a bad sign for the Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 08:24:33 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 06, 2022, 07:10:49 PM
I have it on really good authority from a friend who I trust and has a ton of info that I don't generally talk about that the general consensus is "nothing".

I think thats very much the wrong answer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 06, 2022, 08:35:51 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 08:24:33 PM

I think thats very much the wrong answer.

Well, by nothing I mean nothing direct militarily but yeah, I get the gist.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 06, 2022, 08:44:15 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 07:06:09 PM
and what happens when putin is so fucked across the board that he decides his off ramp is a demonstration strike in the Ukraine?
then what the fuck does NATO do?

I'd say we take the punch.  Putin detonating a nuke in Ukraine would cause so much unrest in Russia he'd never escape it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 06, 2022, 08:48:26 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 06, 2022, 08:22:48 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 07:59:03 PM
saw that earlier and Im still wondering how these guys are taking out ERA equipped tanks with rpgs so consistently.

I thought the same.  That's a bad sign for the Russians.

Yeah, and where's the vaunted t-14 armata?  Or the sulkhoi stealth fighter ?  I'm starting to think those only exist for show.  They don't actually work in combat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 08:50:42 PM
they dont have enough t-14s to actually deploy and the Su-57 is to expensive for them to lose.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 08:54:56 PM
also, "we" wouldnt be taking that punch.  at least not the first one.
its occurred to me that my survival, at least initially, would then depend on the right ssbn being taken out very quickly.
all of their ground based force is aimed at silos and hard targets.  Im in south Floriduh so thats kinda not my problem.
the subs are tasked with hitting cities.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 06, 2022, 09:04:26 PM
I would imagine that Kremlin planners and budgeteers are appalled at the tank and aircraft losses so far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 06, 2022, 09:05:52 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 06, 2022, 08:22:48 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 07:59:03 PM
saw that earlier and Im still wondering how these guys are taking out ERA equipped tanks with rpgs so consistently.

I thought the same.  That's a bad sign for the Russians.

I wondered about that as well. Brings up a bunch of questions. But I have seen at least one other video of an RPG hit on the side, that started the tank burning. So maybe ineffective, poor quality or missing ERA is a thing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 06, 2022, 09:22:15 PM
Maybe Putin is holding back the cream of his forces and newest toys in case he needs them against NATO.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 09:27:39 PM
does an era block have an expiration date?  or not function in extreme cold weather?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 06, 2022, 09:55:05 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 08:54:56 PM
also, "we" wouldnt be taking that punch.  at least not the first one.
its occurred to me that my survival, at least initially, would then depend on the right ssbn being taken out very quickly.
all of their ground based force is aimed at silos and hard targets.  Im in south Floriduh so thats kinda not my problem.
the subs are tasked with hitting cities.

I've got some bad news for you...if there is a strike anywhere in the continental United States, it is not going to matter where you are, you're not going to survive ultimately...and quite frankly, why would you want to? Whatever is left is not going to be in a world worth living in.

Just my .02.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 10:45:21 PM
on many levels I completely agree.
Im looking at it more as an academic exercise.
Ive read that its generally believed that 10% of our nuclear forces wouldnt work at all.  launch failure, stage separation failure, bus malfunction and warhead issues.  that us.  whats to make one think that russias systems would work at anything close to that level?  from what Ive seen now they might, maybe on a good day have 50% work.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 10:48:32 PM
Quote from: solops on March 06, 2022, 09:04:26 PM
I would imagine that Kremlin planners and budgeteers are appalled at the tank and aircraft losses so far.

even accounting for russian cheapness, yesterday alone cost them about $200 million in aviation alone.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 06, 2022, 10:52:26 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 09:27:39 PM
does an era block have an expiration date?  or not function in extreme cold weather?
Doesn't the ERA end before the smoke dischargers and external stowage of the turret?  Also isn't this the area of the autoloader and ammunition?  These men will be highly trained marksmen and are they firing at 200-300m range and rear of turret?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 06, 2022, 10:54:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 10:45:21 PM
maybe on a good day have 50% work.
That's still nearly 3000.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 11:07:10 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 06, 2022, 10:54:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 10:45:21 PM
maybe on a good day have 50% work.
That's still nearly 3000.

with 3000 warheads, not launch vehicles, that then gets spread out into the russian triad.
with that most are still going to be ssbns.  Im willing to discount russian bombers doing fuck all.
so now were down to roughly 2500.  russia has 400 ICBM with 3 nukes each.  thats half of what they can deliver globally. 
Im not trying minimize the absolute suck of it all but I am looking at what the actual throw weight can realistically be.
these are the mental exercises I can afford myself because I have no kids.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 11:18:24 PM
all about the bad idea of a no fly zone.
for the moment.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-dangerous-allure-of-the-no-fly-zone/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 06, 2022, 11:19:17 PM
This is one of the guys the Steve Lookner frequently uses as a a source.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500684324689133571?s=20&t=-1BwAJ8v9pkknEoe1l69Ow

Based on this it should be fair to say are several multiples that are not confirmed (2x or 3x at least).
Additionally the latest tally is over 17K antitank weapons have now been released to the Ukrainian side.  The Russian butcher bill is only going to get more expensive.

Plus a good logistic summary
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/how-ukraine-s-rail-network-threw-russia-s-military-off-track
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 07, 2022, 12:01:19 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 11:18:24 PM
all about the bad idea of a no fly zone.
for the moment.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-dangerous-allure-of-the-no-fly-zone/
Yep.  Surely, you read my grand strategy work around that rightly got slapped down by the head honcho. 
I forgot that the enemy adversary always gets a vote and wouldn't turn around at the NATO border, willingly participating in its own demise.  Not to mention it was perverting Article 5.

From https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates-russia-interfering-at-ukraines-zaporizhzhia-plant-un-nuclear-watchdog-warns/ar-AAUFKqk?ocid=uxbndlbing
QuoteRussia warns against countries hosting Ukrainian aircraft
Russia on Sunday warned Ukraine's neighbours including NATO member Romania against hosting Kyiv's military aircraft, saying they could end up being involved in an armed conflict.

"We know for sure that Ukrainian combat aircraft have flown to Romania and other neighbouring countries," defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a video briefing.

"The use of the airfield network of these countries for basing Ukrainian military aviation with the subsequent use of force against Russia's army can be regarded as the involvement of these states in an armed conflict," he added.

Konashenkov also claimed that "practically all" Ukraine's combat-ready aircraft had been destroyed.

-AFP

Realpolitik is brutal.  Hopefully, the Ukrainians will be able to hold on until something breaks on the Russian side, but they will have to bear the brunt of Russian firepower, not to mention that tactical nuclear weapon usage is in their doctrine and remains a possibility. 

If the Russian regime survives intact, they will blame their losses on Western support including training, and weapons.  Probably even the war too.  Threats will continue. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 07, 2022, 06:48:26 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 06, 2022, 10:52:26 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 09:27:39 PM
does an era block have an expiration date?  or not function in extreme cold weather?
Doesn't the ERA end before the smoke dischargers and external stowage of the turret?  Also isn't this the area of the autoloader and ammunition?  These men will be highly trained marksmen and are they firing at 200-300m range and rear of turret?

I'm not sure if they're "highly trained marksmen" with AT weapons. If it's really a police or paramilitary unit, how much training would they get with AT weapons? Maybe some since 2014, but it doesn't seem like a natural thing to train for a rapid response unit.

ERA doesn't offer 100% coverage, and hits against the same area might reduce the effectiveness of the ERA.

As the urban or ambush fighting is generally at close ranges, maybe the ERA doesn't work as well. Not all ERA works well against low or high velocity projectiles either.

If most tanks are using Kontakt-5 or other newer ERA, the performance seems questionable and does raise the question of how that's possible. I'm not seeing too many tandem charges in the videos I've been watching featuring RPG's.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 07, 2022, 07:48:30 AM
Round is pg-7v, tandem is pg-7vr which has smaller 1st charge before 2nd charge.
Marksmanship skills that make you proficient with a rifle should transfer to rpg-7.  They brewed the tank so they're at least getting otj training.  Ukraine gov't is posting info on where various vulnerabities of vehicles are and main gun is pointing up and away from Ukrainians so they're firing at the rear of the turret where there is no ERA coverage.

As to ERA malfunctioning it remains a possibility after long-term freezing outside or damage from sa, splinters, bad driving.  Don't know enough about explosives to comment on their thermal stability but if sensor of ERA has electronic component it may have been severely damaged by cold.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 07:58:25 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNCRMy3XoAE8cbQ?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 07, 2022, 08:06:01 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 11:07:10 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 06, 2022, 10:54:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 10:45:21 PM
maybe on a good day have 50% work.
That's still nearly 3000.

with 3000 warheads, not launch vehicles, that then gets spread out into the russian triad.
with that most are still going to be ssbns.  Im willing to discount russian bombers doing fuck all.
so now were down to roughly 2500.  russia has 400 ICBM with 3 nukes each.  thats half of what they can deliver globally. 
Im not trying minimize the absolute suck of it all but I am looking at what the actual throw weight can realistically be.
these are the mental exercises I can afford myself because I have no kids.

Let's not forget about the very real possibility of an emp blast over the continental United States. It's estimated that a single warhead, depending on yield, could take down most of our electronics, communications and power grids, effecting hundreds of millions, causing $1 to $2 trillion in damages and taking between 4 and 10 years to recover. Thus, our country could virtually be destroyed without directly killing a single soul. For the most part, we're completely defenseless to such an attack.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 08:08:37 AM
I think that the effects of massive EMP blasts are going to be a lot less effective today then they would have 10 or 20 years ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 07, 2022, 08:15:13 AM
If ERA uses a piezoelectric effect it may be vulnerable to T extremes. 
Detonated by shockwave.  https://www.ecstuff4u.com/2019/07/advantages-and-disadvantages-of-piezoelectric-transducer.html?m=1  But the Russians would have tested for this.  Freeze and thaw can't be good.

But most importantly can a Pantsir-S1 pull a farm plow?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 08:16:52 AM
did anyone catch the video of the russian infantry trapped in the elevator?   :2funny:

These Russian soldiers wanted to get to the top of a building to recon the area. They used the elevator instead of the stairs, so the building manager turned off the power to the elevator between floors...
(https://i.redd.it/88bsoj0r8ml81.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 07, 2022, 09:15:32 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 08:16:52 AM
did anyone catch the video of the russian infantry trapped in the elevator?   :2funny:

These Russian soldiers wanted to get to the top of a building to recon the area. They used the elevator instead of the stairs, so the building manager turned off the power to the elevator between floors...


:DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 07, 2022, 09:22:29 AM
^Jesus Christ.

An EMP attack scares the crap out of me and Ted Keoppel.

https://amzn.to/3vJDamG
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 07, 2022, 09:51:16 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 08:08:37 AM
I think that the effects of massive EMP blasts are going to be a lot less effective today then they would have 10 or 20 years ago.

  The masses of unsheilded transitors are very vulnerable.  I'd say we are much more vulnerable now to EMP, but that's just a guess.

   Meanwhile the Russians are offering a look at their terms:

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

It was the most explicit Russian statement so far of the terms it wants to impose on Ukraine to halt what it calls its "special military operation", now in its 12th day.

Peskov told Reuters in a telephone interview that Ukraine was aware of the conditions. "And they were told that all this can be stopped in a moment."

There was no immediate reaction from the Ukrainian side.

Russia has attacked Ukraine from the north, east and south, pounding cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv and the port of Mariupol. The invasion launched on Feb. 24, has caused the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War Two, provoked outrage across the world, and led to heavy sanctions on Moscow.

But the Kremlin spokesman insisted Russia was not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine and said it was "not true" that it was demanding Kyiv be handed over.

"We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot," he said.


  So if Ukraine surrenders, they get to surrender and hope for the best.  However, the Russian record suggests they are not at all trustworthy.  Even in the Russo-Georgian war of 2008, most
Georgian military equipment was destroyed AFTER THE CEASEFIRE to "demiliarize" Georgia.  So, really, no point in surrendering or even getting a ceasefire since the Russians are going to "Demiliarize" you anyway even if you give them what they supposedly want.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 10:13:26 AM
heres a thread with some very good maps and information:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1500686525436149761/photo/1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 07, 2022, 10:17:32 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 07, 2022, 08:06:01 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 11:07:10 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 06, 2022, 10:54:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 10:45:21 PM
maybe on a good day have 50% work.
That's still nearly 3000.

with 3000 warheads, not launch vehicles, that then gets spread out into the russian triad.
with that most are still going to be ssbns.  Im willing to discount russian bombers doing fuck all.
so now were down to roughly 2500.  russia has 400 ICBM with 3 nukes each.  thats half of what they can deliver globally. 
Im not trying minimize the absolute suck of it all but I am looking at what the actual throw weight can realistically be.
these are the mental exercises I can afford myself because I have no kids.

Let's not forget about the very real possibility of an emp blast over the continental United States. It's estimated that a single warhead, depending on yield, could take down most of our electronics, communications and power grids, effecting hundreds of millions, causing $1 to $2 trillion in damages and taking between 4 and 10 years to recover. Thus, our country could virtually be destroyed without directly killing a single soul. For the most part, we're completely defenseless to such an attack.
Years ago I read a Scientific American article that said eleven warheads, properly spaced, would blanket the continental USA. It discussed hardening and the use of elements other than silicon for chips that were more resistant to EMP. Long time ago, in the 90s. Maybe things changed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 07, 2022, 10:21:56 AM
Quote from: solops on March 07, 2022, 10:17:32 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 07, 2022, 08:06:01 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 11:07:10 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 06, 2022, 10:54:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 10:45:21 PM
maybe on a good day have 50% work.
That's still nearly 3000.

with 3000 warheads, not launch vehicles, that then gets spread out into the russian triad.
with that most are still going to be ssbns.  Im willing to discount russian bombers doing fuck all.
so now were down to roughly 2500.  russia has 400 ICBM with 3 nukes each.  thats half of what they can deliver globally. 
Im not trying minimize the absolute suck of it all but I am looking at what the actual throw weight can realistically be.
these are the mental exercises I can afford myself because I have no kids.

Let's not forget about the very real possibility of an emp blast over the continental United States. It's estimated that a single warhead, depending on yield, could take down most of our electronics, communications and power grids, effecting hundreds of millions, causing $1 to $2 trillion in damages and taking between 4 and 10 years to recover. Thus, our country could virtually be destroyed without directly killing a single soul. For the most part, we're completely defenseless to such an attack.
Years ago I read a Scientific American article that said eleven warheads, properly spaced, would blanket the continental USA. It discussed hardening and the use of elements other than silicon for chips that were more resistant to EMP. Long time ago, in the 90s. Maybe things changed.

As far as I know, not much has changed and for the most part, we are very exposed.

With respect to Moscow's recent demands per Meng's post, I think Ukraine should agree to neutrality and perhaps recognize Donbas independence, particularly if that is what the majority of the residents there desire. However, Crimea is a much more difficult proposition. it should really be returned to Ukraine, but I do not seer that happening, so perhaps they agree to status quo.

I see this overall as a positive development.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 07, 2022, 10:24:47 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 08:08:37 AM
I think that the effects of massive EMP blasts are going to be a lot less effective today then they would have 10 or 20 years ago.

I don't know about that...  We are mostly electronic currency these days. I am wondering if just about every civilian vehicle built in the last 5 years may not even start after an EMP blast. What's the effect of EMP on data storage? SSDs and HDs?  I really don't know. Asking for a friend.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 07, 2022, 10:28:22 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 07, 2022, 09:51:16 AM

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

It was the most explicit Russian statement so far of the terms it wants to impose on Ukraine to halt what it calls its "special military operation", now in its 12th day.

Peskov told Reuters in a telephone interview that Ukraine was aware of the conditions. "And they were told that all this can be stopped in a moment."

There was no immediate reaction from the Ukrainian side.

Russia has attacked Ukraine from the north, east and south, pounding cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv and the port of Mariupol. The invasion launched on Feb. 24, has caused the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War Two, provoked outrage across the world, and led to heavy sanctions on Moscow.

But the Kremlin spokesman insisted Russia was not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine and said it was "not true" that it was demanding Kyiv be handed over.

"We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot," he said.


They forgot to ask for denazification but I guess it is hard to keep up with your own lies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 10:35:00 AM
Im still not to worried about an EMP attack.  mainly because I dont see it happening by itself but as the opening of a massive first strike in which case were truly fucked already.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 10:39:34 AM
and a slight sidetrack to an emp i just dug up
https://www.quora.com/How-long-can-the-United-States-survive-after-being-hit-with-an-EMP-weapon
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 07, 2022, 10:48:15 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 10:35:00 AM
Im still not to worried about an EMP attack.  mainly because I dont see it happening by itself but as the opening of a massive first strike in which case were truly fucked already.

In the movie Threads (1984) there is an EMP attack (nuclear detonation in the air) to disable all communications followed by nuclear strikes on the ground.  I don't know if that was based on Soviet doctrine then in use.


Today Russia's defense ministry announced it would be opening supposedly safe "corridors" from several Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv, that only lead to Russian or Belarusian territory. The cynical plan was immediately called out by Ukraine and its western allies. A spokesperson for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the plans as "completely immoral" and accused Russia of attempting to "use people's suffering to create a television picture." U.K. government minister James Cleverly told BBC News that the corridor announce was "cynical beyond belief." He added: "Providing evacuation into the arms of the country that is currently destroying yours is a nonsense."

The director of the International Committee of the Red Cross told the BBC  that even if the ceasefire is honored, the way out is extremely dangerous. Some of his staff were trying to leave town along a path designated safe only to find it had been laced with land mines.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 07, 2022, 11:01:20 AM
Looking at footage of the fighting in and east of Kherson, it seems the Russians captured the Dnieper bridges intact. That surprised me, the Ukrainians should've had plenty of time to drop them in the river. Maybe there were political considerations involved.

Looking at the maps on the Twitter feed Starfury linked to, the long term prospects of the Ukrainian forces don't seem too good, with the bulk of the mobile forces in a position where they can't influence fighting west of the Dnieper. It remains to be seen if Western supplies are actually reaching the frontline east of the Dnieper.

Unless the Ukrainians established large ammo dumps and fuel depots in the major cities currently (being) encircled, the defenders won't be able to keep up the current resistance. A strategic downside to the Ukrainian strategy of defending cities is that more and more forces will become holed up in locations from where they can't influence fighting in other sectors. The ability to launch raids above nuisance level would depend on fuel supplies as well as repair facilities.

It also makes civilian buildings legitimate targets in cases where the Ukrainian army or paramilitary forces attack from them. In terms of loss of human life, there's a big downside to fighting in urban areas.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 07, 2022, 11:46:44 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 07, 2022, 10:21:56 AM
Quote from: solops on March 07, 2022, 10:17:32 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 07, 2022, 08:06:01 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 11:07:10 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 06, 2022, 10:54:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2022, 10:45:21 PM
maybe on a good day have 50% work.
That's still nearly 3000.

with 3000 warheads, not launch vehicles, that then gets spread out into the russian triad.
with that most are still going to be ssbns.  Im willing to discount russian bombers doing fuck all.
so now were down to roughly 2500.  russia has 400 ICBM with 3 nukes each.  thats half of what they can deliver globally. 
Im not trying minimize the absolute suck of it all but I am looking at what the actual throw weight can realistically be.
these are the mental exercises I can afford myself because I have no kids.

Let's not forget about the very real possibility of an emp blast over the continental United States. It's estimated that a single warhead, depending on yield, could take down most of our electronics, communications and power grids, effecting hundreds of millions, causing $1 to $2 trillion in damages and taking between 4 and 10 years to recover. Thus, our country could virtually be destroyed without directly killing a single soul. For the most part, we're completely defenseless to such an attack.
Years ago I read a Scientific American article that said eleven warheads, properly spaced, would blanket the continental USA. It discussed hardening and the use of elements other than silicon for chips that were more resistant to EMP. Long time ago, in the 90s. Maybe things changed.

As far as I know, not much has changed and for the most part, we are very exposed.

With respect to Moscow's recent demands per Meng's post, I think Ukraine should agree to neutrality and perhaps recognize Donbas independence, particularly if that is what the majority of the residents there desire. However, Crimea is a much more difficult proposition. it should really be returned to Ukraine, but I do not seer that happening, so perhaps they agree to status quo.

I see this overall as a positive development.

  The problem is the "demilitarization"...In the case of Georgia in 2008, despite a ceasefire, the Russians "demiliarized" Georgia by continuing the war.  I'm sure at this point Ukraine would love to be
neutral, but even if they completely surrendered in effect the war would continue until the Russians destroyed anything they felt like destroying.  It's not Putin who doesn't have an "out"...its the Ukrainians...surrrendering or not gets the same result: the Russians destroy everything in Ukraine that they think needs to be destroyed.  This might take them years in either case so I don't see how
the Ukraine can surrender or be neutral without some international supervision of the Russian withdrawal which the Russians will not agree to.  It's kind of like the Italians surrendering to the Germans on Rhodes: the Italians surrendered and the Germans still killed anyone they felt like killing so it would have been better for the Italians to have fought.  Ukraine is in the same bind: if they surrender they still get destroyed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 07, 2022, 12:08:22 PM
If there is a negotiated peace, it will not matter. Putin will be back in a year or five years. He won't quit. And Ukraine will not be  the "last territorial demand." We have seen this show before. I hope this re-make has a better ending and is not just a repeat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 07, 2022, 12:23:17 PM
Quote from: solops on March 07, 2022, 12:08:22 PM
If there is a negotiated peace, it will not matter. Putin will be back in a year or five years. He won't quit. And Ukraine will not be  the "last territorial demand." We have seen this show before. I hope this re-make has a better ending and is not just a repeat.

  I suspect the situation is worse than that.  Putin won't have to be back -- he just won't leave until Ukraine is "demilitarized"...the "negotiated" deal (and I'm sure the Ukrainians know this) goes:
1) there's some kind of ceasefire  2) The Russians don't leave 3) and the Russians go on with "demilitarizing"...I guess the tricky part (though I don't know who would fall for this) is that if the
Russians say the Ukrainains can stop (the war or whatever) just by "stopping" (ie surrendering) then supposedly the ( war or whatever) is the Ukrainians' "fault"...right?  They could stop it all
by surrendering any time (and allowing the Russians to "demilitarize").  Of course the Russians could either not have invaded or just leave but I guess that's not going to happen.  So the Ukrainians
effectively can't surrender even if they surrender.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 07, 2022, 12:53:15 PM
Similar to how a terrorist says to a hostage 'you can make this all go away by just giving us what we want.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 07, 2022, 01:02:43 PM
Right. Kind of like when I was a kid my older brother used to take my hands and hit me in the face with them and say, "Stop hitting yourself. Why are you hitting yourself"?  >:( 

I can foresee one way America and possibly Europe could become directly involved in this war. The price of gas here has hit $4 a-gallon and will continue to rise. At some point this will result in economic slow-down, or out right Recession, and continued inflation. And since all of this is being blamed on Putin and the war, There will be growing demands for leaders around the world to, 'Do Something' about it, especially in an election year here in the U.S.

This will be made worse when the food Ukraine usually produces can't get to market. Wide-spread hunger and massive Social Unrest will call for a more direct confrontation and maybe even violence to stop Putin's War. Thus leaders may listen to the Hawks in their respective nations and appease their many unhappy voters, and then it becomes, 'Ultimatum Time'. A real shooting war could only be one step away. 

My 2 cents. And I hope I'm very wrong.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 01:12:50 PM
I was always taught to stand up to bullies.  I even got suspended a few times for it.
this is the global version. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 07, 2022, 01:14:39 PM
Any kind of Western military involvement is likely to lead with war with Russia, which may or may not turn nuclear, but which even if it remains conventional the West as a whole isn't prepared for. As discussed yesterday, war with Russia would be foolish due to the possibility that it turns nuclear.

A simple threat of nuclear escalation means Putin can more or less do what he wants, and there is no direct way the West can stop Russian forces.

Unfortunately, I fear the length of the war is tied to how long the Russians want to keep going rather than Ukrainian resistance. Militarily, the defeat of regular Ukrainian forces over time is inevitable. Replacing vehicles and more advanced weaponry is very difficult or impossible, especially if the Russians target Ukrainian armaments factories.   

The "surrender now or suffer and surrender later" dilemma could be compared to the responses of various smaller European countries to Nazi invasion. Even though defeat was inevitable, some countries fought whilst others didn't or only through a very short token resistance. The result was always occupation, the difference thousands of casualties.

For the West, there's a bigger geopolitical problem as well. Withdrawal from Iraq eventually led to chaos and IS, crossing of the "red line" in Syria didn't result in Western involvement and withdrawal from Afghanistan led to chaos and the Taliban winning the war.

Due to Biden's own actions relating to some of those events and the upcoming midterm US elections in November, it will be politically difficult for him if Russia conquers and occupies Ukraine. Particularly when the Budapest Memorandum becomes part of the election campaign. To a lesser extent, the same goes for the Conservatives in the UK.

On a global scale, Western inactive might also force countries out of Western spheres of influence and/or tempt leaders to start/continue conflicts in their own region. The same would apply if the sanctions are not effective because a country like China continues to buy Russian goods.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 07, 2022, 01:15:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 01:12:50 PM
I was always taught to stand up to bullies.  I even got suspended a few times for it.
this is the global version.

There was no nuclear option when you did so, there's a nuclear option now.

Whether or not open warfare with Russia results in a nuclear war would depend on Russian restraint. I don't know if you're a gambling man Starfury, but would you put your money on Russian restraint at the moment?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 01:33:29 PM
I might put my money on the other people with power in russia removing him if we call his bluff.
Im also willing to take the risk and call his bluff.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 07, 2022, 02:26:31 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 07, 2022, 01:02:43 PM

My 2 cents. And I hope I'm very wrong.

   Actually, I doubt this is going to turn into an all-out nuclear WWIII, but here's the problem: the Russians have trapped themselves.  It goes like this: they want Ukraine to surrender, but
the very thing that made Ukraine look like a target (ie no allies at all) makes it impossible for them to surrender since there is no external guarantee-ing agency or mediator
that comes readily into the equation.  Who is it that both sides (Ukraine and Russia) would trust to impartially administer a ceasefire and disengagement? 
China and India would seem to be available and France managed to ease the mess in Georgia in 2008.
France has been trying to mediate but has not gotten far.  China and India would seem unlikely at this point and are more likely to cause WWIII between themselves anyway.
This would seem to leave Turkey, but being a NATO country, that might be tricky for Russia.  The UN will never get around to doing anything on its own.
Hopefully, Ukraine and Russia will find a mediating and guarantee-ing agency acceptable to both pretty soon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 07, 2022, 02:58:35 PM
OSCE?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 07, 2022, 03:05:01 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 07, 2022, 11:01:20 AM
Looking at footage of the fighting in and east of Kherson, it seems the Russians captured the Dnieper bridges intact. That surprised me, the Ukrainians should've had plenty of time to drop them in the river. Maybe there were political considerations involved.

Unless the Ukrainians established large ammo dumps and fuel depots in the major cities currently (being) encircled, the defenders won't be able to keep up the current resistance.
Some of those 'bridges' along the Dnipr will be hydroelectric dams, like the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Plant approx 50km east of of Kherson.  With the dams, the Ukrainians could be controlliing water flow to flood the Dnipr and surrounding lowlands without flooding urban areas.  They just don't have the option when retreating to destroy them as the Soviets did in 1941, killing thousands.  They also take decades to rebuild.

To the second section, hopefully the Ukrainians began crash stockpiling food and water in Kyiv when the invasion began, because they had made little preparations beforehand.


Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2022, 01:12:50 PM
I was always taught to stand up to bullies.  I even got suspended a few times for it.
this is the global version. 

Good for you.  I tried to find you the study showing this as a common trait for fighter aces.  In honour of your sig pic, the least I can do is say something righteous and hopeful for a change.

!.  Anonymous claims to have hacked the Russian broadcast system and show what we are seeing of Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60635927/page/3
QuoteAnonymous claims to have hacked Russian TV stations
The hacking collective Anonymous claims to have hacked Russian state TV broadcasts to show footage of the war in Ukraine.

In a Twitter post, Anonymous said it hacked into channels including Russia 24, Channel One and Moscow 24, in addition to Russian streaming services Wink and Ivi.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify these claims.

In a separate post, the group said that it is involved "in the biggest Anonymous op ever seen", adding that it is concerned that some governments may see it as a threat and conduct false-flag operations to discredit it.

"Remember us when various powers turn their attention towards us, because it will happen," Anonymous said. "We can change the world for the better. That has always been the idea".

Social embed from twitter
twitter

2.  Kazakhstan has had an anti war rally with no arrests, this is in stark contrast to the violence last month and indicates my concern about Kazakh troops being sent to Ukraine is unlikely.  https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/rally-in-support-of-ukraine-illustrates-kazakhstans-awkward-position/
QuoteOver the weekend, Kazakh authorities allowed a rally in support of Ukraine in the country's largest city, Almaty, two months after domestic protests devolved into violence in the same city. According to AFP and RFE/RL reports, the rally was attended by more than 2,000 people, who chanted anti-war slogans and insults aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Large protests and rallies are not typically tolerated by Kazakh authorities. Despite efforts in recent years to "reform" the country's protest laws, many attempts to hold rallies for various reasons are denied permission. The allowing of a rally in support of Ukraine contrasts sharply with the lack of permission granted last month for a rally to commemorate the victims of the January unrest in Kazakhstan. Activists and journalists who participating in February's rally have faced fines and detention, illustrating a sharp line between Nur-Sultan's sensitivities when it comes to domestic versus foreign policy issues.

3.  A RUSI research fellow thinks the Russians are on the ropes.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/russia-operation-ukraine-unsustainable-war-153037343.html
QuoteRussia's military operation in Ukraine will be "unsustainable" within three weeks, a defence expert has said.

Ed Arnold, a research fellow for European security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, said Russia is meeting more resistance from Ukrainian troops than it expected.

He told the Reuters news agency on Monday: "At the current rate of Russian losses, which are not confirmed, but we do have indications that this operation would be unsustainable within about three weeks from the Russian perspective."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 07, 2022, 03:05:45 PM
QuoteOSCE?

Doubtful. Its presence in the Donbas has been criticized by Ukraine and Russia at various times since 2014.

Ideally, the organization would need to have a clean record in the Ukraine and Russia. The Russians will probably find something to complain about anyway even in that case.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 07, 2022, 03:18:57 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 07, 2022, 03:05:45 PM
QuoteOSCE?

Doubtful. Its presence in the Donbas has been criticized by Ukraine and Russia at various times since 2014.

Ideally, the organization would need to have a clean record in the Ukraine and Russia. The Russians will probably find something to complain about anyway even in that case.

  The Russians are going to have to stop complaining and get realistic before they lose every possible way of saving face in this mess.  I'd say they have about a week to figure out
its time to be realistic and accept the fact that trying to do whatever it is they are trying to do is not working out well.  After that, the Ukrainians will have nothing to lose and the war
will go on for months and months.

US State Department: Russian embassy's claim is "a flat out lie"
From CNN's Kiely Westhoff

The US State Department said a tweet from Russia's Embassy in the United Kingdom was a "flat out lie."

The tweet, posted Monday, claimed that Russia's military actions aimed "to stop any war that could take place on Ukrainian territory or that could start from there," quoting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.


  This is the "demilitarization" argument: you have a war and in so doing you claim you are being helpful by destroying a lot of military gear.  Of course your own military gear (ie the Russian military gear)
is not what gets destroyed and we know from the example of Georgia in 2008 that most of the destruction happens after the ceasefire.  Another point that makes this Russian point
interesting is that they seem to be running out even of bad ideas.  It's also pretty obvious that nobody is likely to believe them and the fact that plenty of arms are flowing into Ukraine from all sides
suggests that having a rather large war is not a very convincing way of not having a rather large war.  Moreover, the Russian invasion seems to be having precisely the opposite effect than the
Russians seem to have had in mind since the basic message they are actually getting across to everyone day after day is: join NATO or die.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 07, 2022, 03:19:57 PM
QuoteSome of those 'bridges' along the Dnipr will be hydroelectric dams, like the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Plant approx 50km east of of Kherson.  With the dams, the Ukrainians could be controlliing water flow to flood the Dnipr and surrounding lowlands without flooding urban areas.  They just don't have the option when retreating to destroy them as the Soviets did in 1941, killing thousands.  They also take decades to rebuild.

Correct, I only noticed the dam after checking videos instead of a zoomed out map. My mistake. There don't seem to be AT obstacles or some means to block the road across the dam in the videos of Russian forces moving in. Maybe on the other side of the river.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1CdPO7brQQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1CdPO7brQQ) and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVvk05EJ0rk&t=33s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVvk05EJ0rk&t=33s)

The bridge at Antonivka is a "genuine" bridge and the Russians captured that bridge intact. I was wondering how they got into Kherson so quickly, but this explained it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 07, 2022, 03:45:54 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.html

According to the NY times, in less than a week the United States and NATO members have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons (including Javelin missiles) over the borders of Poland and Romania.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 07, 2022, 04:55:49 PM
I paid $4.69 per gallon of super unleaded today.  The highest I've ever seen gas prices in my area in my life.  87 octane is 4.01
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on March 07, 2022, 05:22:41 PM
With gas prices stupid expensive (and probably continuing to rise even more) I wonder if US employers will allow its work force to continue to work from home.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 07, 2022, 05:34:18 PM
Conditions inside Chernobyl:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60638949
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 07, 2022, 05:56:13 PM
The Russian stock market is expected to remain closed until at least Wednesday.  What do you guys think are the odds of it actually reopening that day?  Seems like Russia's better option is to just leave it closed so foreigners can't buy up their stocks for pennies. 

Fun fact: The last time the Russian stock market closed for more than a week was in 1917 when it closed for 75 years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 07, 2022, 10:27:17 PM
Report on FOX tonight that the Russians are bringing-in Syrian fighters with Urban Combat experience. Can the Mongols be far behind?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 12:33:39 AM
Im not convinced they arent just bring home their own people.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 01:57:10 AM
meanwhile, the russian navy.....  ::)

https://www.dw.com/en/deadly-blaze-hits-admiral-kuznetsov-russias-only-aircraft-carrier/a-51650096

molten metal randomly falls down a shaft and hits an oily rag.

(https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2015-12/16/18/enhanced/webdr12/anigif_enhanced-3672-1450310113-6.gif)

shit, just realized its from 2019.  still funny though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 08, 2022, 06:37:48 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 07, 2022, 10:27:17 PM
Report on FOX tonight that the Russians are bringing-in Syrian fighters with Urban Combat experience. Can the Mongols be far behind?

  Where are the Mongols when you need them?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 08, 2022, 07:17:40 AM
^True and very quotable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 08, 2022, 08:15:57 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 08, 2022, 06:37:48 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 07, 2022, 10:27:17 PM
Report on FOX tonight that the Russians are bringing-in Syrian fighters with Urban Combat experience. Can the Mongols be far behind?

  Where are the Mongols when you need them?

But where is all the rum?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 11:23:15 AM
meanwhile, this weekend in the Baltic:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNO5kloWYAE8yMt?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 08, 2022, 11:41:30 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 11:23:15 AM
meanwhile, this weekend in the Baltic:


Leo2A6porn  \m/ ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 02:38:45 PM
so Poland is giving the US all of its Mig-29s in exchange for F-16s.
Im still not clear as to how the US is going to give them to the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 08, 2022, 02:50:16 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 02:38:45 PM
so Poland is giving the US all of its Mig-29s in exchange for F-16s.
Im still not clear as to how the US is going to give them to the Ukraine.
Park them fully fueled on a remote Polish airfield, leave the keys in the ignition and stroll away :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 08, 2022, 02:54:41 PM
Quote from: solops on March 08, 2022, 02:50:16 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 02:38:45 PM
so Poland is giving the US all of its Mig-29s in exchange for F-16s.
Im still not clear as to how the US is going to give them to the Ukraine.
Park them fully fueled on a remote Polish airfield, leave the keys in the ignition and stroll away :)
Hire an aircraft ferrying service stressing the importance of aircraft expertise, just don't look too hard at where in Eastern Europe these ferry pilots are coming from.  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 08, 2022, 02:56:55 PM
Just a thought, but if Russia insists on targeting civilians, I can see some strong attitude changes in Ukraine forces towards their aggressors as a consequence.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 03:04:37 PM
I think the best bet is to roll them up to the border and let the farmers tractor them away.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 08, 2022, 03:05:39 PM
Ukraine takes out another general.

Quote
Ukrainian intelligence officials claim that yet another high-ranking Russian military officer has been killed, which, if confirmed, would be the second such fatality in a week amid Russia's war in Ukraine.

Maj. Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov, chief of staff and first deputy commander of the 41st Army of the Central Military District of Russia, was "eliminated" during fighting near Kharkiv, Ukraine's defense intelligence directorate said in a Facebook post on Monday. He was 45, according to the Associated Press.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/ukrainian-intelligence-claims-second-high-ranking-russian-general-killed
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 08, 2022, 03:12:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 02:38:45 PM
so Poland is giving the US all of its Mig-29s in exchange for F-16s.
Im still not clear as to how the US is going to give them to the Ukraine.
FYI, Wikipedia says the Poles have 23 Mig-29's.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 08, 2022, 03:19:33 PM
I'm thinking maybe Putin's transferring some of the Brainiacs who planned this war up front as a new way to institute, 'Early Retirement'.  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 03:39:41 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 08, 2022, 03:12:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 02:38:45 PM
so Poland is giving the US all of its Mig-29s in exchange for F-16s.
Im still not clear as to how the US is going to give them to the Ukraine.
FYI, Wikipedia says the Poles have 23 Mig-29's.

yes, and that doubles the size of their air force.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 08, 2022, 03:49:17 PM
Quote from: Windigo on March 08, 2022, 02:56:55 PM
Just a thought, but if Russia insists on targeting civilians, I can see some strong attitude changes in Ukraine forces towards their aggressors as a consequence.

Well, the Ukrainians already had plenty good reasons to be p*ssed at the Russians, but this video is going to make them crazy mad. 

https://nypost.com/2022/03/08/russian-tank-obliterates-civilian-car-in-ukraine-video/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 08, 2022, 04:16:56 PM
Unverified, but apparently the Russian warship that took out Snake Island just got sunk by an MLRS barrage.  Apparently Ukraine used a patrol boat to bait the warship into a presighted location and then blasted it.  The ship was built in 2014, making it one of Russia's latest.

EDIT - Actually, it was as patrol boat supporting the warship Moskva that got sunk, not the warship itself.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-warship-snake-island-attack-destroyed-report-says-2022-3?utm_source=reddit.com

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t8m7d9/supposed_footage_of_ukrainian_mlrs_hitting_a/

https://twitter.com/UkraineNews0/status/1500797392219688961
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 04:23:26 PM
Quote from: steve58 on March 08, 2022, 03:49:17 PM
Quote from: Windigo on March 08, 2022, 02:56:55 PM
Just a thought, but if Russia insists on targeting civilians, I can see some strong attitude changes in Ukraine forces towards their aggressors as a consequence.

Well, the Ukrainians already had plenty good reasons to be p*ssed at the Russians, but this video is going to make them crazy mad. 

https://nypost.com/2022/03/08/russian-tank-obliterates-civilian-car-in-ukraine-video/

theres a walk around video of the wreck that shows the 2 old people who died.  the right side of the car had a handicapped badge.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 08, 2022, 04:32:14 PM
Have we ever had a war streamed live before?  We certainly haven't had a war in Europe that was streamed live before.

I applaud Biden's decision to ban the purchase of Russian energy resources.  It'll have a minor impact on the US economy.  But it'll increase the public pressure on European leaders to do the same (and it will have a MUCH bigger impact on those countries' economies). 

I think one of the biggest political risks for European leaders is getting ahead of their citizens in terms of the economic sacrifices that they're willing to make.  I'm not saying that it should be.  Simply that this is the world that we live in.

I'm still not sure how you go about instituting regime change in a country with 3,000+ nuclear warheads.  I guess the answer is "very carefully..."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 08, 2022, 04:42:31 PM
These sanctions are a double edged sword.  Sure they punish a nation that breaks international code of conduct but they also hurt the side that initiated the sanction.  People from both sides of this conflict are now going to suffer.  Case in point, gasoline (petrol) prices are skyrocketing or will skyrocket to unprecedented levels.

If it costs more money to drive your car or take a bus or train to work then the money your earn at work why work then?  No work, no money, no home, no food, goodnight irene. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 08, 2022, 05:31:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 03:39:41 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 08, 2022, 03:12:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 02:38:45 PM
so Poland is giving the US all of its Mig-29s in exchange for F-16s.
Im still not clear as to how the US is going to give them to the Ukraine.
FYI, Wikipedia says the Poles have 23 Mig-29's.

yes, and that doubles the size of their air force.

It's bizarre that the delivery might go ahead after all.

Considering the availability of cruise missiles and advanced AA systems to Russian forces, if the Russians are serious about taking out the Ukrainian air force they can do so. Why they haven't done so thus far isn't entirely clear.

The likely impact of the aircraft on the war is dwarfed by the political, and in this case thus military, risks involved.

I have to admit, my faith in NATO members making the right decisions isn't particularly high right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 06:00:42 PM
there are enough EW assets flying by the border that they could be both degrading russian ability to direct their planes while at the same time feeding information to Ukraine so they know where to use their aircraft.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 08, 2022, 06:10:22 PM
The Poles are shrewdly offering to fly the MiG-29s to Rammstein AB, rather than allowing them to fly from Poland to Ukraine.  Something not being mentioned is that it is eight years since Ukraine has operated MiG-29s.  The Ukrainians need the aircraft but delivering them will be very delicate.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/u-s-surprised-at-poland-s-decision-to-give-it-fighter-jets-for-ukraine/ar-AAUNCMb?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

QuoteWASHINGTON (Reuters) -Poland's decision to put all its MiG-29 fighter jets at the disposal of the United States was "a surprise move" by Warsaw, the U.S. State Department's No. 3 diplomat said on Tuesday, after Ukraine asked European countries to provide aircraft to help it fight Russia's invasion.

"To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us," State Department Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing. "So I think that actually was a surprise move by the Poles," she said.

Poland is ready to deploy all its MiG-29 jets to Ramstein Air Base in Germany and put them at the disposal of the United States, and urges other NATO members that own planes of that type to do the same, the Polish Foreign Ministry said earlier.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 08, 2022, 06:13:07 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 06:00:42 PM
there are enough EW assets flying by the border that they could be both degrading russian ability to direct their planes while at the same time feeding information to Ukraine so they know where to use their aircraft.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 08, 2022, 07:49:31 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 08, 2022, 05:31:36 PM


It's bizarre that the delivery might go ahead after all.

Considering the availability of cruise missiles and advanced AA systems to Russian forces, if the Russians are serious about taking out the Ukrainian air force they can do so. Why they haven't done so thus far isn't entirely clear.

The likely impact of the aircraft on the war is dwarfed by the political, and in this case thus military, risks involved.

I have to admit, my faith in NATO members making the right decisions isn't particularly high right now.

  Well NATO is getting testy:

NATO's secretary general has warned that a Russian attack on the supply lines of allied nations supporting Ukraine with arms and munitions would be a dangerous escalation of the war raging in eastern Europe.

Jens Stoltenberg made the remarks Tuesday in an interview with CBC News as he, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the leaders of Spain and Latvia visited NATO's base and training range at Adazi, outside Latvia's capital Riga.

"The allies are helping Ukraine uphold their right for self defence, which is enshrined in the UN charter," Stoltenberg said after a meeting with Trudeau, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš at the Adazi base.

"Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is defending itself. If there is any attack against any NATO country, NATO territory, that will trigger Article 5."


  While NATO may be happy about the possible Mig transfer the US has said no.

  On a related note, the Russians are sometimes careful when hitting airfields not to crater the runways, one would guess so that their own aircraft can land there some time or other.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 08, 2022, 10:21:15 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 08, 2022, 04:32:14 PM
I applaud Biden's decision to ban the purchase of Russian energy resources.  It'll have a minor impact on the US economy.

That's because Biden's administration is planning to beg Iran and Venezuela to sell us oil instead.

Venez, by the way, has been a direct ally of Russia for a long time. The Biden administration up until five minutes ago didn't even acknowledge Maduro as the legitimate president (if I recall correctly). Maybe Maduro will throw in some spare dogs from the street with every shipment of a hundred barrels he can send, to manage the bad optics of his own people eating them.

(Despite my bitter humor, I do agree banning the purchase of Russian energy is the right move.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 08, 2022, 10:26:22 PM
This segment of the Lotus Eaters podcast today, featured a reference to an interesting article reminding everyone how catastrophically bad Russian maintenance programs are.



The article directly analyzes footage of broken vehicles against maintenance requirements from their manuals, forensically arguing that the self-inflating tire mechanisms (among many other things) haven't been properly serviced on a yearly basis, so now they're failing as expected. (This is aside from the question of the quality of the Chinese tires themselves, of course.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 08, 2022, 10:36:13 PM
Some analysis a few days ago in a public interview at Oxford (sponsored by the Oxford Debate Society), from Sir Robert John Sawers, former British Permanent Representative to the UN, then chief of MI6 from 2009 until 2014, and also (afterward) former board member of British Petrol in their Russian operations.




Afterward, a three way panel debate was held on how to respond to the war, featuring "Mr Robert Brinkley CMG (Formerly HM Ambassador to Ukraine and Head of the Ukrainian Institute); Professor Neil MacFarlane (a world expert in the international relations of the Former Soviet Union and a professor at St. Anne's; Sir David Manning KCVO GCMG (Formerly a diplomat to Moscow, HM Ambassador to the United States, and foreign policy advisor to Tony Blair)"




Haven't had a chance to watch them all the way through myself, but wanted to share before they became completely outdated.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 08, 2022, 11:13:44 PM
The U.S. ban on importing oil from Russia will do nothing to hurt their economy. Putin will simply sell it elsewhere like India or his new BFF, China. At $120-130 Dollars-a-barrel, it'll sell fast and to anybody because the price will only go higher from here. Meanwhile here in the U.S. gas will certainly hit $6-7 Dollars a gallon by summer, resulting in our economy going into the toilet instead. Who's the big winner here? China. If the West destroys Putin, China loses a potential threat on their border. If Putin destroys Ukraine and divides Europe, China gets stronger. If they destroy each other, China gets very much stronger. There's almost no way this turn-out China doesn't benefit. Which is probably why they're doing it don't you imagine?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 11:37:20 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 08, 2022, 10:21:15 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 08, 2022, 04:32:14 PM
I applaud Biden's decision to ban the purchase of Russian energy resources.  It'll have a minor impact on the US economy.

That's because Biden's administration is planning to beg Iran and Venezuela to sell us oil instead.

Venez, by the way, has been a direct ally of Russia for a long time. The Biden administration up until five minutes ago didn't even acknowledge Maduro as the legitimate president (if I recall correctly). Maybe Maduro will throw in some spare dogs from the street with every shipment of a hundred barrels he can send, to manage the bad optics of his own people eating them.

(Despite my bitter humor, I do agree banning the purchase of Russian energy is the right move.)

you cant help yourself can you?  I recommend you turn of fox news once in a while.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 11:39:17 PM
@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 08, 2022, 11:49:32 PM
https://www.theonion.com/things-to-never-say-to-a-child-about-nuclear-war-1848614175   
My now adult child found this very helpful.
Now I am become dearth, I guess.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Zulu1966 on March 09, 2022, 03:22:03 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 11:39:17 PM
@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.

Yeah - I agree - there is a course of events that plays out - Putin gets offed by someone - the russian people seeing a glint of light revolt at the appearance of a new just as dictatorial leader but not quite so mad - revolt replaces the leadership with a democratically elected leader - russia becomes a fully functioning democracy and puts the full weight of its people and brains behind it and makes a staggering contribution to the good of man over the next twenty years.

Unlikely yes - but always a possibility.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 09, 2022, 08:25:38 AM
Trouble brewing at Chernobyl (https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-chernobyl-electricity-off-grid-russians-radioactive-contamination-nuclear-fuel).  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 09, 2022, 08:43:34 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 11:39:17 PM
@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.

  Signs of some realism...some kind of ceasefire and maybe the Russians just want the Crimea and that's it, maybe.  Of course the basic problem remains that there's no way to guarantee that the
Russians will actually do anything they say...for example, actually cease firing or actually not kill Zelensky or actually leave or actually not attack again even if they ever do leave.  This is where
it becomes clear that the Russians have trapped themselves by attacking a country with no allies: no external forces can guarantee any agreements.  Obviously what was in place before was not sufficient
so the Russians will have to work out some allies for the Ukrainians or stay in Ukraine for a few decades or both.  Or they could build up the Ukrainian forces so that Ukraine doesn't care what Russia does (unlikely, but maybe the easiest solution after all).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 09, 2022, 09:10:09 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 09, 2022, 08:43:34 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 11:39:17 PM
@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.

  Signs of some realism...some kind of ceasefire and maybe the Russians just want the Crimea and that's it, maybe.  Of course the basic problem remains that there's no way to guarantee that the
Russians will actually do anything they say...for example, actually cease firing or actually not kill Zelensky or actually leave or actually not attack again even if they ever do leave.  This is where
it becomes clear that the Russians have trapped themselves by attacking a country with no allies: no external forces can guarantee any agreements.  Obviously what was in place before was not sufficient
so the Russians will have to work out some allies for the Ukrainians or stay in Ukraine for a few decades or both.  Or they could build up the Ukrainian forces so that Ukraine doesn't care what Russia does (unlikely, but maybe the easiest solution after all).

Russia has controlled Crimea since 2014.  The list of demands are as follows:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-will-stop-in-a-moment-if-ukraine-meets-terms-kremlin/ar-AAUJ7gH?ocid=uxbndlbing
QuoteLONDON (Reuters) -Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

I'm pretty positive the Russians will want a land bridge to Crimea and from there to Transdniester and 'wish' for controlling all of the Black Sea coast as well as Kharkiv.  These are things Ukraine will never accept. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on March 09, 2022, 09:35:33 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 09, 2022, 09:10:09 AM
Russia has controlled Crimea since 2014.
They want it to be officially recognised as being Russian.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 09, 2022, 09:49:37 AM
Quote from: Anguille on March 09, 2022, 09:35:33 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 09, 2022, 09:10:09 AM
Russia has controlled Crimea since 2014.
They want it to be officially recognised as being Russian.
and not have Ukraine try and take it back, if they hadn't been preempted.  The ammunition depot explosions in 2017 reduced Ukraine's opportunity for retaking their territory.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Kalynivka_ammunition_depot_explosion
The sabotage has been attributed to a drone attack.  https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/huge-kalynivka-arms-dump-blast-was-sabotage-by-drone-d8cnxrghs
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 09, 2022, 09:54:18 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 09, 2022, 09:10:09 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 09, 2022, 08:43:34 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 11:39:17 PM
@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.

  Signs of some realism...some kind of ceasefire and maybe the Russians just want the Crimea and that's it, maybe.  Of course the basic problem remains that there's no way to guarantee that the
Russians will actually do anything they say...for example, actually cease firing or actually not kill Zelensky or actually leave or actually not attack again even if they ever do leave.  This is where
it becomes clear that the Russians have trapped themselves by attacking a country with no allies: no external forces can guarantee any agreements.  Obviously what was in place before was not sufficient
so the Russians will have to work out some allies for the Ukrainians or stay in Ukraine for a few decades or both.  Or they could build up the Ukrainian forces so that Ukraine doesn't care what Russia does (unlikely, but maybe the easiest solution after all).

Russia has controlled Crimea since 2014.  The list of demands are as follows:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-will-stop-in-a-moment-if-ukraine-meets-terms-kremlin/ar-AAUJ7gH?ocid=uxbndlbing
QuoteLONDON (Reuters) -Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

I'm pretty positive the Russians will want a land bridge to Crimea and from there to Transdniester and 'wish' for controlling all of the Black Sea coast as well as Kharkiv.  These are things Ukraine will never accept.

  I think those are the old terms.  There are hints that Russia will eventually be satisfied with hanging on to what it had before the war.  Obviously Ukraine can't "demilitarize" and can't enshrine
neutrality now that Russia has attacked them.  That worked with Austria in 1955, but then the place was fully occupied by allied powers including Russia.  You can't insist on demilitarizing a place you've just attacked (though that sort of worked for the Russians in Georgia in 2008...I doubt it will work for ending the war in Ukraine.).

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, said Wednesday that he does not have "high expectations" for his scheduled meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Turkey on Thursday.

    Talking in Turkey seems like a positive sign.  Turkey needs to have this war stop ASAP AND Turkey can act as a guaranteer (NATO-by-the-Black-Sea-Back-Door) and has plenty of clout with Russia-Syria-Iran.
    Also i just noticed, while playing South China Sea, that Vietnam is sort of an ally of the USA and Russia.  I guess that's a sweet spot at the moment.  No, really!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 09, 2022, 10:19:23 AM
Turkey and Iran have good relations?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 09, 2022, 10:19:29 AM
Food for thought - this is my area of expertise since I am responsible on scaling up biotech industries into commercial sized manufacturing so I deal with many of the same issues.
 
The problem statement is that we have not invested in our arms manufacturing of critical weapons such as stingers and javelins.  Basically once the safety stock of missiles is done we could be in a world of hurt getting these critical weapons into armories.

For the first time in decades these sites will need to start overnight scaling upto wartime production.  We are facing a potential serious bottleneck since we dont have any business continuity plans (second site sourcing, raw material inventory, six sigma mfg at wartime scale etc) and manufacturing is on old/aging/mothballed equipment with limited operator experience.
 
Lastly dont be surprised it we suddenly see some "industrial" accidents at these sites.  Its very easy to sabotage internally or externally these sites and a critical piece of equipment or line going down could put us months if not years behind in manufacturing.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines-use-of-stinger-and-javelin-missiles-is-outstripping-us-production/?sh=3a9e85ba2409
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 09, 2022, 10:26:32 AM
These Ukrainians have giant balls:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60670173

"I don't know how to count the number of people protesting, I thought it was 2,000 at least," said Yunona, a 29-year-old IT worker in the southern city of Kherson. "One of our friends was beaten and taken by the Russian soldiers and people got so angry they chased the occupiers down the street and took him back."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 09, 2022, 10:27:49 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 09, 2022, 10:19:23 AM
Turkey and Iran have good relations?

  They seem to be getting along.  And this is the kind of realistic politics that Turkey can inject and probably bring along some NATO-Syria-Iran buzz to make it all shiny.  Gotta get the Russians
something for their evil schemes: how about a brand new economic deal with Iran or something?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 09, 2022, 11:03:27 AM
Good article Con.  I'm somewhat familiar (20+ years experience in the semi-conductor manufacturing industry) with supply chain challenges and six sigma manufacturing and can understand the potential problems outlined in that article. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 09, 2022, 11:39:36 AM
^Just the phrase 'six sigma manufacturing' makes me shudder.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 09, 2022, 11:53:41 AM
What makes anyone think a new government by summer in Russia would be any better? Anybody believe they'll install a Constitutional Democracy and vote in a Peace Ticket? You'll probably at best get a new Strong-Man who will take-up where Putin left-off. And even that could be years away. You Young People are so naive.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 11:57:26 AM
todays most accurate map I could find.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNawUp6XoAEr9EY?format=jpg&name=large)

@ Slash:  ok boomer
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 09, 2022, 12:17:40 PM
Great map, really good detail. I get the feeling that Lviv is not in Russia's sights...that they plan to leave it alone and make it part of whatever's left of Ukraine when this is over.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 09, 2022, 01:51:06 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2022, 11:39:17 PM
@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.

I am not negative.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 09, 2022, 01:53:54 PM
^You make up for it in other ways.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 02:02:37 PM
I found the problem!
this book:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNXibhvVEAAYcFw?format=jpg&name=small)

its $170.00 on amazon!  so it seems that the russians cant afford to read their own doctrine!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 09, 2022, 05:32:37 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 02:02:37 PM
I found the problem!
this book:

its $170.00 on amazon!  so it seems that the russians cant afford to read their own doctrine!

When I wore a green suit for a living (so long ago), I had a big thick manual on Soviet "big battle" doctrine. It was scary.

I got to see that doctrine in action at the US Army's National Training Center (NTC) where the OPFOR used it in an "attack" on the US 3rd ACR in October, 1987. It was awesome. And even though I knew it wasn't "real" it was a little scary. Echelons of OPFOR tanks (read "Soviet") behind a massive rolling curtain of smoke, advancing up a wide valley.

The punchline of course is that after WWII, the Soviets never did anything like that in real life (to be fair, they did not fight any major wars after '45). When the Soviet Union fell, it became obvious what a paper tiger they were. The US and Allies on the other hand were able to exercise our "big battle" doctrine a few times...the last time probably was Desert Storm where it was 'textbook.'

But the muddy mess that Putin's guys have made of this war, just shows what a complete break there has been with decades of Soviet doctrine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 05:38:45 PM
I have no reason to think that a mid 80s soviet army was no less corrupt and poorly maintained.
I want a 1987 do-over!  >:(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 09, 2022, 05:47:27 PM
'In great war of Soviet defense, when all else fails, the human wave will do.'
- Vlad Putin
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 05:47:55 PM
and now the soviets pissed of the Royal Marines

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/tory-mps-son-among-uk-ex-servicemen-heading-to-ukrainian-front-line
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 05:50:34 PM
ultimately opec will come around

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60680787?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_custom4=38AC7BEE-9FF0-11EC-A37C-FE9A4744363C&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom3=%40BBCWorld&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom2=twitter
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 09, 2022, 05:54:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 05:38:45 PM
I have no reason to think that a mid 80s soviet army was no less corrupt and poorly maintained.
I want a 1987 do-over!  >:(

If you can find a copy of the book "Mig Pilot" by John Barron, about the defection of Viktor Belenko who flew his Mig 25 to Japan in 1976, it has a ton of anecdotes about how corrupt the Soviet military was at that time. It is kind of a biography of Belenko and covers a bunch of ground about what it was like to be a Soviet fighter pilot at that time. Unfortunately, the book is now pretty expensive, but copies are available on ebay and abebooks. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 09, 2022, 05:55:12 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 09, 2022, 05:47:27 PM
'In great war of Soviet defense, when all else fails, the human wave will do.'
- Vlad Putin

  UK Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧@DefenceHQThe Russian MoD has confirmed the use of the TOS-1A weapon system in Ukraine. The TOS-1A uses thermobaric rockets, creating incendiary and blast effects.

  Looks like the Russians are going for a little pulse of terror before they get realistic and try to back out of this mess. 
  Why else claim to be using thermobaric weapons?  Also the chemical weapons and so on.  This seems like a ploy to scare the Ukrainians
before settling down to some kind of negotiation in Turkey.

 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 05:58:49 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 09, 2022, 05:54:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 05:38:45 PM
I have no reason to think that a mid 80s soviet army was no less corrupt and poorly maintained.
I want a 1987 do-over!  >:(

If you can find a copy of the book "Mig Pilot" by John Barron, about the defection of Viktor Belenko who flew his Mig 25 to Japan in 1976, it has a ton of anecdotes about how corrupt the Soviet military was at that time. It is kind of a biography of Belenko and covers a bunch of ground about what it was like to be a Soviet fighter pilot at that time. Unfortunately, the book is now pretty expensive, but copies are available on ebay and abebooks.

I have it and Ive read it a few time.  one of the takeaways was the protests of wives over there husbands being drunk on hydraulic alcohol from the planes they "serviced".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 09, 2022, 06:20:05 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 05:58:49 PM


I have it and Ive read it a few time.  one of the takeaways was the protests of wives over there husbands being drunk on hydraulic alcohol from the planes they "serviced".

  People will drink some odd stuff:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torpedo_juice
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 06:24:13 PM
that was also a huge problem is the soviet navy
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 09, 2022, 06:40:21 PM
Ukrainian medieval armorer contributes to war effort (https://adnamerica.com/en/ukraine/ukrainian-medieval-armorer-contributes-war-effort)

Very cool... :clap:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 09, 2022, 07:16:58 PM
The UK Ministry of Defence has reported that the Russians have used a thermobaric weapon:
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1501621370614173701?s=20&t=MlNNyIQs05JPucb64P7EHA
QuoteThe Russian MoD has confirmed the use of the TOS-1A weapon system in Ukraine. The TOS-1A uses thermobaric rockets, creating incendiary and blast effects

Perhaps, in an attempt to justify Russian actions, nonsense of US DOD developing biological weapons in Ukraine are being promoted by Russia and now China.  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-peddles-russia-s-claim-that-u-s-has-bioweapons-in-ukraine/ar-AAUMOsc?ocid=uxbndlbing 
The experts on destroying the world at the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists can explain best what the truth is.  https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/us-official-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-risks-release-of-dangerous-pathogens/
QuoteThe labs in Ukraine are not bioweapons facilities. The US government maintains that they are public and animal health labs operated by host countries. Although a long-running Russian disinformation campaign has painted a picture of a network of US military labs in Ukraine, Georgia, and other former Soviet republics involved in bioweapons or risky research, Pope said the labs conduct peaceful scientific research and disease surveillance. Outside experts have also said Pope's program is not a covert bioweapons operation.
...
The pathogens in Ukrainian labs vary by facility, Pope said, but some can be characterized as presenting a concern in the Ukrainian environment. As an example, he cited African swine fever virus, which is highly contagious in pigs and has caused hundreds of outbreaks in Ukraine since 2012. Some labs, he said, may hold pathogen strains left over from the Soviet bioweapons program, preserved in freezers for research purposes.
...
"What we have today and what these countries maintain are small amounts of various pathogens that by and large are things that are collected out of their environment that they need for research to be able to legitimately surveil disease and develop vaccines against," [Robert Pope, the director of the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, a 30-year-old Defense Department program] said.

Then there are the allegations about CW that Russia is making about Ukraine.  A military that will attack a maternity hospital https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60675599 is capable of anything and the White House is warning of escalation.  https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60683248
QuoteRussia could be planning a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine - and "we should all be on the lookout", the White House has said.

Press secretary Jen Psaki said Russia's claims about US biological weapon labs, and chemical weapon development in Ukraine, were preposterous.

She called the false claims an "obvious ploy" to try to justify further premeditated, unprovoked attacks.

It comes after Western officials shared similar concerns about fresh attacks.

They said they were "very concerned" about the risk the war could escalate, and particularly the possibility of Russia using non-conventional weapons.

This most likely refers to chemical weapons although the term also covers tactical (small-scale) nuclear weapons, biological weapons and dirty bombs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 09:48:06 PM
.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 09, 2022, 10:55:33 PM
I saw Ms. Nuland testifying under oath before the Senate saying the Ukrainians had Bio-Research Labs and she was very concerned over the Russians getting possession of the materials there. So if the labs aren't doing anything potentially harmful, then why is she so concerned? And why is everyone in DC now denying there are Bio Research Labs there, claiming that the labs that are there aren't American, and aren't any danger? But whatever they are, we can't let the Russians have them. Kind of reminds me of Wuhan all over again.  ^-^
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 09, 2022, 11:27:35 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 09, 2022, 10:55:33 PM
I saw Ms. Nuland testifying under oath before the Senate saying the Ukrainians had Bio-Research Labs and she was very concerned over the Russians getting possession of the materials there. So if the labs aren't doing anything potentially harmful, then why is she so concerned? And why is everyone in DC now denying there are Bio Research Labs there, claiming that the labs that are there aren't American, and aren't any danger? But whatever they are, we can't let the Russians have them. Kind of reminds me of Wuhan all over again.  ^-^
Denying that they are bioweapons facilities, not that there are labs.  https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/in-ukrainian-cities-under-russian-attack-us-linked-research-labs-could-provide-fodder-for-future-russian-disinformation/

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 11:30:07 PM
the fox news is strong in some  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 09, 2022, 11:33:18 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 11:30:07 PM
the fox news is strong in some  :2funny:

Starfury...give up the Fox news shit already. If someone says something that you disagree with, say something intelligent, or keep your mouth shut. Nobody is accusing you of being a jedi of MSN or CNN. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2022, 11:35:29 PM
Im finding it interesting to be on the other side of the whole "yellow cake" story line.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Toonces on March 10, 2022, 01:54:07 AM
I read MiG Pilot donkeys ago, and I remember it to be a fantastic book.  Gosh, that must have been 30+ years ago at this point. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Toonces on March 10, 2022, 01:55:27 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 09, 2022, 05:32:37 PM

I got to see that doctrine in action at the US Army's National Training Center (NTC) where the OPFOR used it in an "attack" on the US 3rd ACR in October, 1987. It was awesome. And even though I knew it wasn't "real" it was a little scary. Echelons of OPFOR tanks (read "Soviet") behind a massive rolling curtain of smoke, advancing up a wide valley.


I can't even imagine what that must have been like.  Impressive seems to be inadequate to describe it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 10, 2022, 06:35:42 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 09, 2022, 10:55:33 PM
I saw Ms. Nuland testifying under oath before the Senate saying the Ukrainians had Bio-Research Labs and she was very concerned over the Russians getting possession of the materials there. So if the labs aren't doing anything potentially harmful, then why is she so concerned? And why is everyone in DC now denying there are Bio Research Labs there, claiming that the labs that are there aren't American, and aren't any danger? But whatever they are, we can't let the Russians have them. Kind of reminds me of Wuhan all over again.  ^-^

It's always bad when war zones and bio-research overlap.  Pretty much any lab at all would have some things that should not be messed with by untrained people.

Meanwhile:

Russia's Ministry of Defense has confirmed that Russian military conscripts have been involved in the invasion of Ukraine and that some were taken prisoner by Ukrainian forces, just a day after President Vladimir Putin insisted conscripts were not part of the assault.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 10, 2022, 08:00:37 AM
Footage from yesterday (March 9th) showed street fighting in Voznesenk, a city with the first road bridge across the Southern Bug north of Mykolaiv.

There's a rail bridge at Pisky, closer to Mykolaiv, but the Ukrainians seem to be able to hold the Southern Bug line for now.

Other footage showed a train moving into Kherson presumably from the Crimea. It looks like it's doing a test drive to check the track, but it's hard to tell.

As a wargamer and armchair general, I have WWII footage in mind of the last "friendly" train wrecking the track as it moves back, but in this case little damage seems to have been done to the infrastructure in the area. Just like not blocking/blowing the Dnieper bridges, it's either a political decision or a military oversight.

Both the Russians and Ukrainians are clearly damaging infrastructure on purpose. In what remains a problematic area for Ukrainian forces, the Kherson-Dnieper-Southern Bug front, infrastructure damage seems less extensive.

A week ago the Ukrainians did drop an overpass with a Russian tank on it on the rail line heading north-east from Mykolaiv.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FM6zDrxXEAAqluD?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 10, 2022, 08:54:29 AM
Train moving into Kherson: https://twitter.com/i/status/1501545844457283585 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1501545844457283585)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 10, 2022, 09:00:17 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 10, 2022, 08:54:29 AM
Train moving into Kherson: https://twitter.com/i/status/1501545844457283585 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1501545844457283585)

An attempt at comprehending the Russian plan in southern Ukraine: 

   https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/07/europe/russia-southern-ukraine-military-analysis-intl/index.html

Which starts:

Each morning I hope it will be easier to process. But nearly a fortnight into this war, the conflict still seems surreally distant and alarmingly beyond comprehension.

Try to ask yourself "how is this happening?" and you lurch out over an abyss so profound it is beyond the reach of your senses.
And even if Putin does think he can get his old empire back, how do these 13 days of savagery make that happen?
The slow and clumsy Russian campaign for the south has been the most baffling. It is clear what Moscow wants: To cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea.
What is hard to fathom is whether the Kremlin's plan to get it has collapsed, and Russian troops are just throwing rockets and tanks at anything they can,
or whether this sort of total war against Ukrainians was always the plan.


And continues:

The city of Kherson was the first to "fall," but that was not really what happened.
As we watched the fight for the strategic bridge to the city's east, I tried to reassure locals that the Russian army had no interest in their homes and would drive on by, eager to get to Odessa,
further west.

But I was wrong -- again -- about the extent of Moscow's ambitions. (I have, since the first intelligence warnings about a full Russian invasion of Ukraine, felt the idea was so preposterous it must be born of an intelligence failure, not a historic intelligence success).

Russian troops did enter the city of Kherson, where they were reported to have looted shops, arrested men, and shot in the air at protestors.
The residents here call them "Orcs" -- the lumbering monsters from the Lord of the Rings.
It is a marvel that Moscow was either so convinced civil disobedience would not be a problem or decided that they simply did not need a plan to deal with it.
The Kremlin's attempt to film Russian aid trucks handing out the solution to the problem its invasion created was greeted with local scorn and profanity. The protests go on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 10, 2022, 09:18:48 AM
The Russian army is and has been primarily a blunt instrument.

Contrary to NATO, precision guided munitions are rare. On the other hand, destructive area attack weapons are common and have only increased their potency in recent years (compare that to the trend towards less area attack weapons like the MLRS and similar weapons in the various NATO armies).

Unfortunately for the civilians living in the cities held by the Ukrainian army, the Russian army doesn't really have the means to remove the Ukrainians in a subtle manner.

NATO's performance in urban combat wouldn't necessarily be much better against an opponent with modern weapons. You can't simply roll into a city with modern concrete buildings and a million inhabitants and hope to take it from the march. Urban combat remains an ugly business, and the smaller size of modern armies combined with larger cities make it even more difficult than it was in, say, WWII.

The Russians seem to be trying to secure a number of strategic objectives all at once, instead of focussing on one or two. Considering that the Russians quickly crossed the Dnieper, progress has been very limited.

From a strategic perspective, the fighting near Mariupoel doesn't make much sense. Though linking up the Crimea with the separatist regions is helpful, it won't make much of an impact on the war as a whole. It's been diverting forces from both the advances from the Donbas and the Crimea in a direction away from strategic objectives west of the Dnieper.

A stronger concentration crossing the Dnieper advancing both along the Southern Bug and towards, say, Krivoy Rog with a screening force towards the cities of Zaporzhye and Dnipro would, combined with the on-going battle for Kiev, threaten all Ukrainian forces east of the river.

Forcing the Ukrainians to withdraw across larger distances would also create a richer target environment for missiles and the air force as columns move back along highways.

The Russians insist on attacking the Ukrainians where they are strongest, indeed repeating the same attacks over and over like the article you linked to mentions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 10, 2022, 09:26:02 AM
Yeah I can't believe how slow the Russians have been advancing.  It's almost as if they have forgotten how to wage a proper war. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FlickJax on March 10, 2022, 09:30:26 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 10, 2022, 09:18:48 AM
The Russian army is and has been primarily a blunt instrument.

Contrary to NATO, precision guided munitions are rare. On the other hand, destructive area attack weapons are common and have only increased their potency in recent years (compare that to the trend towards less area attack weapons like the MLRS and similar weapons in the various NATO armies).

Unfortunately for the civilians living in the cities held by the Ukrainian army, the Russian army doesn't really have the means to remove the Ukrainians in a subtle manner.

NATO's performance in urban combat wouldn't necessarily be much better against an opponent with modern weapons. You can't simply roll into a city with modern concrete buildings and a million inhabitants and hope to take it from the march. Urban combat remains an ugly business, and the smaller size of modern armies combined with larger cities make it even more difficult than it was in, say, WWII.

The Russians seem to be trying to secure a number of strategic objectives all at once, instead of focussing on one or two. Considering that the Russians quickly crossed the Dnieper, progress has been very limited.

From a strategic perspective, the fighting near Mariupoel doesn't make much sense. Though linking up the Crimea with the separatist regions is helpful, it won't make much of an impact on the war as a whole. It's been diverting forces from both the advances from the Donbas and the Crimea in a direction away from strategic objectives west of the Dnieper.

A stronger concentration crossing the Dnieper advancing both along the Southern Bug and towards, say, Krivoy Rog with a screening force towards the cities of Zaporzhye and Dnipro would, combined with the on-going battle for Kiev, threaten all Ukrainian forces east of the river.

Forcing the Ukrainians to withdraw across larger distances would also create a richer target environment for missiles and the air force as columns move back along highways.

The Russians insist on attacking the Ukrainians where they are strongest, indeed repeating the same attacks over and over like the article you linked to mentions.

He probably wants a land bridge to the Crimea which he will look to keep in any peace negotiations
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 10, 2022, 09:46:18 AM
That's a fairly logical strategic objective, but the Russian army is trying to accomplish it by headbutting its way from the Crimea to the Russian border west of Taganrog.

A concentration of forces west of the Dnieper would, strategically, force the Ukrainians to pull back. As there are not that many bridges across the Dnieper, a Ukrainian retreat could quickly turn into a rout if the Russians win the race to the river, heading north-north-east from Kherson.

Currently, the Ukrainian forces east of the Dnieper are still exposed due to the nature of their deployment, but not directly being threatened with encirclement. That the Ukrainian line is seemingly facing so little pressure that the Ukrainian army could actually afford to fight for Mariupoel (which has a very limited strategic significance by itself, the Sea of Azov is already pretty much a Russian lake since the annexation of the Crimea) is a sign of Russian strategic misjudgement and improper use of forces all by itself.

None of the Russian pushes seems to have the "weight" to remove the Ukrainian army. I didn't expect the Ukrainians to be able to hold in the vast open spaces south-east of Kharkov, but even that seems to be going fairly well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 10, 2022, 10:00:29 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 10, 2022, 09:46:18 AM
That's a fairly logical strategic objective, but the Russian army is trying to accomplish it by headbutting its way from the Crimea to the Russian border west of Taganrog.

A concentration of forces west of the Dnieper would, strategically, force the Ukrainians to pull back. As there are not that many bridges across the Dnieper, a Ukrainian retreat could quickly turn into a rout if the Russians win the race to the river, heading north-north-east from Kherson.

Currently, the Ukrainian forces east of the Dnieper are still exposed due to the nature of their deployment, but not directly being threatened with encirclement. That the Ukrainian line is seemingly facing so little pressure that the Ukrainian army could actually afford to fight for Mariupoel (which has a very limited strategic significance by itself, the Sea of Azov is already pretty much a Russian lake since the annexation of the Crimea) is a sign of Russian strategic misjudgement and improper use of forces all by itself.

None of the Russian pushes seems to have the "weight" to remove the Ukrainian army. I didn't expect the Ukrainians to be able to hold in the vast open spaces south-east of Kharkov, but even that seems to be going fairly well.

From CNN, results of the meeting in Turkey (and it seems to me the Russians have only a few more days to get realistic and get a good deal before the Ukrainians give up on dealing with them and
resolve to fight to the bitter end -- which might take a while and cause immense destruction)

Of course, the basic problem is that the Russians have trapped themselves by not allowing any mechanisms for guaranteeing long-term stability in the region.  The Turks obviously see this quite clearly.



  This poses a question," said Kuleba. "How to assure the security of Ukraine between now and eventual membership in NATO."
Kuleba added: "If we could reach an agreement where a similar system of guarantees as envisaged by the North Atlantic Charter could be granted to Ukraine by the permanent members of UN Security Council, including Russia," as well as by Ukraine's neighbors, "this is something we are ready to discuss. Ukraine exists in a security vacuum and we have to think creatively on how to address this issue."

Kuleba's meeting with Lavrov on Thursday ended without an agreement between the two sides on evacuation corridors out of besieged areas, nor on a ceasefire in Ukraine.

After the meeting, Kuleba said Russia was not prepared to negotiate on his top goals of arranging an evacuation route away from the city of Mariupol, which has endured deadly airstrikes this week.

According to Kuleba, a "broad narrative Lavrov conveyed today was they [Russia] will continue their aggression until we surrender." He said he hopes Lavrov will follow up on the humanitarian issues in Ukraine by "reaching out to his colleagues in charge who can make decisions."

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 10, 2022, 10:05:54 AM
^The Russian response to that first Turkish comment would be 'perhaps you have not been paying attention to our top priority here.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 10, 2022, 10:24:07 AM
Star's joke about Glantz' book was not only spot-on, but inspired me to dig around for the best deal on it. (Can't recall if I have it already somewhere. Too many books, too little life...)

Amazon looks like the least costly eBook version at the moment, at $14.90. How well DG's work converts over to that format is a whole other question.

The paperback lists at $62.95, but Amazon again seems to have the best discount, at $53.88. Walmart has the same discount.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 10, 2022, 10:30:10 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 10, 2022, 10:05:54 AM
^The Russian response to that first Turkish comment would be 'perhaps you have not been paying attention to our top priority here.'

  That's the Ukrainian foreign minister's comment.  It's actually kind of pointless in fact for the Russians to insist NATO is the problem when Turkey, a NATO member, is likely to
be the only way some kind of end to this war can be arranged soon with some kind of satisfaction for Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 10, 2022, 10:36:08 AM
Meanwhile, I can't recall now where I heard or read the analysis, but someone earlier this week with DoD contacts was talking about how Putin doesn't have enough invasion-level supplies built up to keep going for more than three weeks. (Might have been that Oxford interview? Haven't been able to get back to that yet...)

I guess we'll soon see; but I know of at least one key example (the Nazis in Barbarossa) who hit their predicted logistic wall at three weeks, and managed to keep on going for a while. On the other hand, they barely managed to finish off Poland's encirclement invasion after hitting that three-week wall -- albeit with a lot less preparation possible in their backfield.

Putin's scurvy low-class troop composition looks more like the latter at the moment than the former, but he's still holding a lot of his trump cards in his hand.


At this point, looking at it purely from an efficiency perspective, I have to wonder if Putin would have been better off driving one or (a la Montgomery) two close prongs (near enough for some interior line reinforcements to help each other), in a strong thrust into and past a few key targets. I remember being very surprised on the opening day that he tried a full operational envelopment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 10, 2022, 12:42:10 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 10, 2022, 10:30:10 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 10, 2022, 10:05:54 AM
^The Russian response to that first Turkish comment would be 'perhaps you have not been paying attention to our top priority here.'

  That's the Ukrainian foreign minister's comment.  It's actually kind of pointless in fact for the Russians to insist NATO is the problem when Turkey, a NATO member, is likely to
be the only way some kind of end to this war can be arranged soon with some kind of satisfaction for Russia.

   lukashenko is going to Moscow to talk to Putin tomorrow.  We all know what the content of that conversation will be:

Putin:  "I'm sorry, lubby, can I call you Lubby?"
Lubby: "No."
Putin: "Anyway Lubby, When you get back to Belarus...uh...this is going to sound bad but it isn't..."
Lubby: "What?"
Putin: "uh...when you get back to Belarus, I'm going to drop a bomb on you."
Lubby: "Ha!  You are the funny man."
Putin: "No, I'm serious and this is a very serious bomb.  A thermonuclear bomb.  2-3 megatons so be somewhere quiet where you can reflect on your life or something."
Lubby:  "What?  Why me?"
Putin: "We will say NATO dropped a bomb on you.  Almost an accident.  Almost an afterthought.  Barely lethal, really.  Just the fireball.  That's what they call it.  You won't feel a thing.
  I think you will be ionized in ...smallest time."
Lubby:  "No, I'm staying in Moscow."
Putin: "It has to look like a little accident that NATO had with the bomb.  They missed.  They were trying some new thing and it hit you.  You see why they are the bad guys."
Lubby: "why me?"
Putin: "I have to be very very upset.  I won't miss anyone as much as you."

Well...maybe Lubby will get out of this one...but who knows:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 10, 2022, 12:57:17 PM
Just saw some mind-blowing drone video of a Russian company+ sized mech force (including tanks), taking incoming while caught in a choke point on the road. The unit is in a clusterf$$k on the road. Like watching something out of one of the CM games where the player starts whining about dumb AI...except this is not AI, it is deadly and real.

CNN had some additional footage, (that I can't seem to find now) of the burning vehicles at ground level.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/destruction-of-tanks-on-the-outskirts-of-brovary-ukraine/vi-AAUSgWA?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/destruction-of-tanks-on-the-outskirts-of-brovary-ukraine/vi-AAUSgWA?ocid=msedgntp)




Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 10, 2022, 12:59:51 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 10, 2022, 12:57:17 PM
Just saw some mind-blowing drone video of a Russian company+ sized mech force (including tanks), taking incoming while caught in a choke point on the road. The unit is in a clusterf$$k on the road. Like watching something out of one of the CM games where the player starts whining about dumb AI...except this is not AI, it is deadly and real.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/destruction-of-tanks-on-the-outskirts-of-brovary-ukraine/vi-AAUSgWA?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/destruction-of-tanks-on-the-outskirts-of-brovary-ukraine/vi-AAUSgWA?ocid=msedgntp)

  How did they get that (from a drone?) and I swear it looked like infantry were running in among the tanks and blowing them up.  Tanks where shooting at them it looked like.  Quite horrifying!
Yeah, I saw the CNN footage as well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 10, 2022, 01:00:10 PM
So this is all very interesting...


https://rumble.com/vwxfgf-russia-tells-the-us-we-have-found-your-biological-weapons.html

https://twitter.com/MFA_China/status/1501185437901082629
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 10, 2022, 01:12:51 PM
I saw that same footage this morning on FOX. Doesn't look like the Russians are too keen to stand and fight for Mother Russia I guess.  ::)  Maybe Vlad should go down there and take control himself and show them how it's done.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 10, 2022, 01:26:39 PM
Can some of you ground pounders help out a USN guy?  It looked to me like possibly some form of road block at the front of the column, followed by the following vehicles jaming up, followed by ambush on the traffic jam.  Eventually, the blockage up front was cleared, and the column moved on, leaving about a  platoon of their vehicles burning.  Am I interpreting this video correctly?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 10, 2022, 01:39:38 PM
Russia is maintaining it's lead as the world's leading exporter of bullshit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 10, 2022, 01:45:59 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 10, 2022, 01:39:38 PM
Russia is maintaining it's lead as the world's leading exporter of bullshit.

  And the Turks are being realistic:


  From CNN's Betsy Klein

As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues his attempts to position himself as the broker between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the West, he spoke by phone with US President Joe Biden.

They discussed "their shared concern about Russia's unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine," according to a statement from the White House.

"They reaffirmed their strong support for the government and people of Ukraine, underscored the need for an immediate cessation of Russian aggression, and welcomed the coordinated international response to the crisis. President Biden expressed appreciation for Turkey's efforts to support a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, as well as Turkey's recent engagements with regional leaders that help promote peace and stability," the statement read.


  Plus, it turns out, Turkey bought a Russian air defense system recently and now they want 40 F-16s to keep everybody on their toes.  I guess they's better load up while they can.  An additional
40 F-16s would give them a total of about 300 to go with their nice new S-400 Russian air defense.  I don't think the Russians are going to want to mess with Turkey.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 10, 2022, 02:05:14 PM
There's an old family story in the FarAway household that, 40 years ago, a plumber was working on some stuff in our kitchen.  He was trying to explain what he needed to fix, and after asking one or two questions, my mom blandly said, "That sounds good.  Go ahead and fix it.  I didn't follow everything you said, but that's one reason why you're a plumber and I'm not."

At that point, the plumber scratched his chin, looked at my mom thoughtfully, and said, "Ma'am, there's only 3 things you need to know to be a plumber.  Hot water on the left, cold water on the right, and shit don't run uphill." 

Shit seldom runs uphill in authoritarian regimes either.  That dramatically undermines the professionalism and accountability of everybody, including the armed forces.  Whatever his grasp of the situation now (and that's debatable), Putin clearly had no idea what would happen if the Ukrainians actually tried to stand their ground and fight. 

That said, I have no idea who is winning the military war of attrition that seems to be going on in Ukraine right now.  The only clear losers seem to be the Ukrainian civilians.  I've heard very few military experts in the US publicly predict that the Ukrainians can fight the Russians to a standstill over the long term.  If that opinion is changing, I'm only hearing it here.

The US outsourced an awful lot of vaguely military functions to US-based firms during the Iraq war (Blackwater was the most notorious).  The US military seems to be staying well out of the shooting war for now.  I wonder if US companies have US-manufactured equipment and US-trained employees on the ground in Ukraine?  I wonder if that's even legal?

I'm sure that the CIA has been doing everything it can to get assets into place.  I don't even have any idea how many such assets they have for roles like this.  I can't imagine their budget for that sort of thing is as large as it was back in the 80s.  On the other hand, they have a MUCH larger pool of recently seasoned combat veterans to draw on than they did 20 years ago.

I wonder what the Europeans are doing.  I don't even have a good sense for which European militaries and countries have the best reputations for the sort of bare-knuckle fighting going on in Ukraine right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 10, 2022, 02:34:10 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 10, 2022, 02:05:14 PM
There's an old family story in the FarAway household that, 40 years ago, a plumber was working on some stuff in our kitchen.  He was trying to explain what he needed to fix, and after asking one or two questions, my mom blandly said, "That sounds good.  Go ahead and fix it.  I didn't follow everything you said, but that's one reason why you're a plumber and I'm not."

At that point, the plumber scratched his chin, looked at my mom thoughtfully, and said, "Ma'am, there's only 3 things you need to know to be a plumber.  Hot water on the left, cold water on the right, and shit don't run uphill." 

Shit seldom runs uphill in authoritarian regimes either.  That dramatically undermines the professionalism and accountability of everybody, including the armed forces.  Whatever his grasp of the situation now (and that's debatable), Putin clearly had no idea what would happen if the Ukrainians actually tried to stand their ground and fight. 

That said, I have no idea who is winning the military war of attrition that seems to be going on in Ukraine right now.  The only clear losers seem to be the Ukrainian civilians.  I've heard very few military experts in the US publicly predict that the Ukrainians can fight the Russians to a standstill over the long term.  If that opinion is changing, I'm only hearing it here.

The US outsourced an awful lot of vaguely military functions to US-based firms during the Iraq war (Blackwater was the most notorious).  The US military seems to be staying well out of the shooting war for now.  I wonder if US companies have US-manufactured equipment and US-trained employees on the ground in Ukraine?  I wonder if that's even legal?

I'm sure that the CIA has been doing everything it can to get assets into place.  I don't even have any idea how many such assets they have for roles like this.  I can't imagine their budget for that sort of thing is as large as it was back in the 80s.  On the other hand, they have a MUCH larger pool of recently seasoned combat veterans to draw on than they did 20 years ago.

I wonder what the Europeans are doing.  I don't even have a good sense for which European militaries and countries have the best reputations for the sort of bare-knuckle fighting going on in Ukraine right now.

  Good points.  I think the plumbing explanation for the moment is: regimes want to stay in power.  They can't do it if they lose all credibility.  The Russians have to move fast to shut down this
war or they lose all credibility.  Now that's not to say regimes with no credibility cannot cause massive slaughters, but I think the Russians would rather keep some credibility rather than descend into
the kind of pure slaughter and endless destruction that is likely if the war doesn't stop soon.  But I guess we will see how it goes in the next few days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 10, 2022, 02:57:21 PM
The longer the Ukrainians hold on the longer the bullshit will pile up and back flow into Putin's office.  That's what happened in Afghanistan for them.  They denied all the bullshit until the staggering casualties made it undeniable.

The fact that Russian citizens can't even call Ukraine a war is bullshit, and that's going to be reckoned with soon as those body bags and death notices start returning home to Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 10, 2022, 03:06:33 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 10, 2022, 02:57:21 PM
The longer the Ukrainians hold on the longer the bullshit will pile up and back flow into Putin's office.  That's what happened in Afghanistan for them.  They denied all the bullshit until the staggering casualties made it undeniable.

The fact that Russian citizens can't even call Ukraine a war is bullshit, and that's going to be reckoned with soon as those body bags and death notices start returning home to Russia.
For comparison over a 9 year period (from Wikipedia's Soviet Afghan War article):
The total irrecoverable personnel losses of the Soviet Armed Forces, frontier, and internal security troops came to 14,453. Soviet Army formations, units, and HQ elements lost 13,833, KGB sub-units lost 572, MVD formations lost 28, and other ministries and departments lost 20 men. During this period 312 servicemen were missing in action or taken prisoner; 119 were later freed, of whom 97 returned to the USSR and 22 went to other countries.

Of the troops deployed, 53,753 were wounded, injured, or sustained concussion and 415,932 fell sick. A high proportion of casualties were those who fell ill. This was because of local climatic and sanitary conditions, which were such that acute infections spread rapidly among the troops. There were 115,308 cases of infectious hepatitis, 31,080 of typhoid fever, and 140,665 of other diseases. Of the 11,654 who were discharged from the army after being wounded, maimed, or contracting serious diseases, 10,751 men, were left disabled.[334]

Material losses were as follows:[41]

    451 aircraft (includes 333 helicopters)
    147 tanks
    1,314 IFV/APCs
    433 artillery guns and mortars
    11,369 cargo and fuel tanker trucks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 10, 2022, 03:15:14 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 10, 2022, 01:26:39 PM
Can some of you ground pounders help out a USN guy?  It looked to me like possibly some form of road block at the front of the column, followed by the following vehicles jaming up, followed by ambush on the traffic jam.  Eventually, the blockage up front was cleared, and the column moved on, leaving about a  platoon of their vehicles burning.  Am I interpreting this video correctly?

Yes, good synopsis. But not certain. Some outlets are saying this was a drone attack.

Anyway, the bunching up is the "sin". These guys haven't trained to react to an ambush. Some bunching is inevitable, but these guys take the cake. A unit that has trained for this will have the guys coming up deploy before they get into the kill zone, and then put together a flanking force (if the ambush was a ground attack). It takes training and good communication to pull that off. To be fair to them, this is a semi-urban environment, and maybe the tanks didn't want to start driving down side streets where they might catch a molotov. But still it does look like there are fields to the sides where they could have operated.     
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 10, 2022, 03:42:57 PM
https://www.businessinsider.com/john-bolton-putin-saw-trump-doing-a-lot-of-his-work-for-him-2022-3

QuoteJohn Bolton, who served as President Donald Trump's national security advisor, on Wednesday said that Russian President Vladimir Putin didn't invade Ukraine while Trump was in office because "Putin saw Trump doing a lot of his work for him."

Bolton pointed to Trump's outspoken criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the military and diplomatic alliance established in the wake of World War II.

"I think one of the reasons that Putin did not move during Trump's term in office was he saw the president's hostility of NATO. It was widely reported in American media," Bolton said during an interview with SiriusXM's Julie Mason. "And to Putin's mind, it's a binary proposition: a weaker NATO is a stronger Russia."

Bolton went on, "Putin saw Trump doing a lot of his work for him, and thought, maybe in a second term, Trump would make good on his desire to get out of NATO, and then it would just ease Putin's path just that much more."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 10, 2022, 03:59:34 PM
I think if Putin had to choose between the US exiting NATO, or the Soviet Union successfully occupying Ukraine, he'd take the first opportunity in a heartbeat. 

That, of course, assumes that Putin has (roughly) the same information as I do and is vaguely in touch with reality.  Putin has long had a reputation as being a cunning, pragmatic, realist, but the last few weeks have really called that assessment into question.  I have no idea what Putin is thinking or doing at the moment.

My sense, after spending a little time in Eastern Europe immediately after the Iron Curtain came down in 1990, was that the Soviet Union was a hollow shell of what it had claimed to be or even what we in the West had imagined it to be.  Like modern Russian, it did in fact have thousands and thousands of nuclear warheads. 

Which essentially made it a toothless dog wearing a suicide vest.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 10, 2022, 04:03:44 PM
Important to remember that Bolton did not part ways with the Trump Admin. in good terms and has been quite critical of him since. Trump claimed Bolton gave assurances his policy to destabilize Venezuela would result in an uprising against Maduro and he was wrong.

Serious question. Would RPG's work well against the Russian armor and if so, why haven't we seen any? Or maybe we have and I just missed it. It seems there would be tons of them laying around a country with lots of old Russian equipment and could be very useful. Do they only work in an urban environment? Are they now obsolete? Just curious.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 10, 2022, 04:06:29 PM
I will point out, in a friendly manner and please I'm not being condescending here, that when I used the T word a few pages ago I was immediately crucified. 

You don't know what I'm thinking in my head but you immediately labeled me as something I AM NOT!!!!

I love you guys so please don't use hurtful language against me. 

That is all....carry on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 10, 2022, 04:11:31 PM
Pretty powerful reporting from BBC newsman on the ground -

https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1502000265490227206?s=20&t=B36vBX8CLXbsIYrosWWmZw
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 10, 2022, 05:19:29 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 10, 2022, 04:03:44 PM
...
Serious question. Would RPG's work well against the Russian armor and if so, why haven't we seen any? Or maybe we have and I just missed it. It seems there would be tons of them laying around a country with lots of old Russian equipment and could be very useful. Do they only work in an urban environment? Are they now obsolete? Just curious.

There was some discussion of this several pages back. Yes, RPGs are a thing in this war, and they have been "seen."

There was actually a video of Ukrainian Special Police with RPGs stalking a couple of Russian tanks in a field...and it seems like they took them out. I have also seen another video (sorry don't have the link anymore) where an RPG takes out a Russian tank by hitting it on the side. 

In theory, the Russian's have a bunch of Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) on their tanks that should stop "traditional" RPGs. These ERA upgrades look like boxes hanging in rows on the turrets and side skirts if you aren't familiar with it. When these boxes are hit, they explode outward, reducing the penetration power of the incoming round. But the discussion was that the ERA may not be working as designed. Maybe missing. Maybe poor quality. So that is why the Ukrainians are still able to kill the tanks. Also, there are some RPGs that can fire "tandem-charge" rounds designed to defeat ERA. Basically, the round has two stages, the first sets off the ERA charge, then the second comes in behind.

Also, those RPGs can eat lighter vehicles alive. They can also be used for anti-personnel work. Think there is a sniper firing from a basement window, but you can't see him? Send in an RPG round.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 10, 2022, 06:01:51 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 10, 2022, 05:19:29 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 10, 2022, 04:03:44 PM
...
Serious question. Would RPG's work well against the Russian armor and if so, why haven't we seen any? Or maybe we have and I just missed it. It seems there would be tons of them laying around a country with lots of old Russian equipment and could be very useful. Do they only work in an urban environment? Are they now obsolete? Just curious.

There was some discussion of this several pages back. Yes, RPGs are a thing in this war, and they have been "seen."

There was actually a video of Ukrainian Special Police with RPGs stalking a couple of Russian tanks in a field...and it seems like they took them out. I have also seen another video (sorry don't have the link anymore) where an RPG takes out a Russian tank by hitting it on the side. 

In theory, the Russian's have a bunch of Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) on their tanks that should stop "traditional" RPGs. These ERA upgrades look like boxes hanging in rows on the turrets and side skirts if you aren't familiar with it. When these boxes are hit, they explode outward, reducing the penetration power of the incoming round. But the discussion was that the ERA may not be working as designed. Maybe missing. Maybe poor quality. So that is why the Ukrainians are still able to kill the tanks. Also, there are some RPGs that can fire "tandem-charge" rounds designed to defeat ERA. Basically, the round has two stages, the first sets off the ERA charge, then the second comes in behind.

Also, those RPGs can eat lighter vehicles alive. They can also be used for anti-personnel work. Think there is a sniper firing from a basement window, but you can't see him? Send in an RPG round.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 10, 2022, 06:10:45 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 10, 2022, 06:01:51 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 10, 2022, 05:19:29 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 10, 2022, 04:03:44 PM
...
Serious question. Would RPG's work well against the Russian armor and if so, why haven't we seen any? Or maybe we have and I just missed it. It seems there would be tons of them laying around a country with lots of old Russian equipment and could be very useful. Do they only work in an urban environment? Are they now obsolete? Just curious.

There was some discussion of this several pages back. Yes, RPGs are a thing in this war, and they have been "seen."

There was actually a video of Ukrainian Special Police with RPGs stalking a couple of Russian tanks in a field...and it seems like they took them out. I have also seen another video (sorry don't have the link anymore) where an RPG takes out a Russian tank by hitting it on the side. 

In theory, the Russian's have a bunch of Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) on their tanks that should stop "traditional" RPGs. These ERA upgrades look like boxes hanging in rows on the turrets and side skirts if you aren't familiar with it. When these boxes are hit, they explode outward, reducing the penetration power of the incoming round. But the discussion was that the ERA may not be working as designed. Maybe missing. Maybe poor quality. So that is why the Ukrainians are still able to kill the tanks. Also, there are some RPGs that can fire "tandem-charge" rounds designed to defeat ERA. Basically, the round has two stages, the first sets off the ERA charge, then the second comes in behind.

Also, those RPGs can eat lighter vehicles alive. They can also be used for anti-personnel work. Think there is a sniper firing from a basement window, but you can't see him? Send in an RPG round.



Wow, these guys are not hurting for AT capability.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 10, 2022, 06:29:01 PM
It still surprises me just how poorly Russian forces are faring, even considering the corruption, poor morale and lack of preparedness...the Ukrainian military did not strike me as so professional while observing operations over the last several years in Donbas and the LPR.  Today, they look superb. Well equipped, confident and utilizing great skill and tactics. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10 (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10)

Quote
March 10, 4:00 pm EST

The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date. There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing, reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden change in the pace or success of its operations, although the numerical disparities between Russia and Ukraine leave open the possibility that Moscow will be able to restore rapid mobility or effective urban warfare to the battlefield.

Russian forces around Kyiv did not attempt to renew offensive operations on a multi-battalion scale on March 10 following the failure of limited efforts on March 8-9. Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored column in the Brovary area east of Kyiv, likely further disrupting Russian efforts to set conditions for offensive operations on the east bank of the Dnipro. Ukrainian resistance all along the Russian lines of communication from eastern Kyiv to the Russian border near Sumy continues to disrupt Russian efforts to bring more combat power to bear near the capital. The episodic, limited, and largely unsuccessful Russian offensive operations around Kyiv increasingly support the Ukrainian General Staff's repeated assessments that Russia lacks the combat power near the capital to launch successful offensive operations on a large scale.

Key Takeaways

    Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours.

    Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored unit east of the capital, likely disrupting Russian efforts to encircle or assault the city from the east.

    Russian forces continue to struggle in efforts to seize Chernihiv city and to secure the long ground lines of communication from Sumy, which the Ukrainians still hold, to eastern Kyiv.

    A new Russian invasion from western Belarus, with or without Belarusian ground forces' support, appears increasingly unlikely.

    Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment.

    Russian efforts to bypass Mykolayiv and establish a reliable ground line of communication across the Southern Bug River to the north of Mykolayiv remain stalled.

    Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 10, 2022, 08:14:36 PM
Ive seen videos of RPGs being used to take out tanks.  the RPGs being used have a tandem warhear where the 1st charge activates the ERA and the 2nd charge blows through that and into armor.  The Javelin also uses a tandem warhead as do most atgm worth a shit these days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 10, 2022, 08:23:41 PM
B-52 over the Alps today

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNgit_1WUAkzE9m?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 10, 2022, 08:45:46 PM
Plaque on the tank trap says its a museum piece from WW2
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNhFIyzWYAcO8Y-?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 10, 2022, 09:03:50 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1502096611543031808
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 10, 2022, 09:13:51 PM
^Wow everything old is new again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on March 10, 2022, 10:17:09 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 10, 2022, 09:13:51 PM
^Wow everything old is new again.

Diggin' the armored train the Russians have supposedly got going about.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 10, 2022, 10:34:05 PM
a few more months or Ukraine farmers and the commies will have to start using maxims and ppsh's
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 10, 2022, 10:44:40 PM
Well, if you're no good at invading, you can always try theatre.  https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60685883
QuoteThe UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss Russia's claim that the US is funding the development of biological weapons in Ukraine.

The meeting is being requested by Russia, which Western countries say is fabricating the allegation in order to justify its own possible future use of biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine.

Earlier, Ukraine's president denied Ukraine was producing any such weapons, and accused Russia of preparing to use them on Ukrainian civilians.

Reacting to the news of the meeting, a spokeswoman for the US mission to the UN told AP News that Russia was seeking to "gaslight [deceive] the world or use the UN Security Council as a venue for promoting their disinformation".

QuotePresident Volodymyr Zelensky has hit back at Russian claims that Ukraine is developing chemical or biological weapons on its territory with US help.

"Allegedly, we are preparing a chemical attack," he says in a video address.

"This makes me really worried, because we've been repeatedly convinced: if you want to know Russia's plans, look at what Russia accuses others of [doing]."

As to Russia using chemical weapons, it is a possibility.  The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons supervised the destruction of Soviet era stocks as of 2017, so Russia no longer has 40000+ metric tons of blister agents (mustard, lewisite, mix m-l) or nerve agents (sarin, soman, VX) that would have blanketed West Germany.  However, some agents like sarin are not particularly difficult to produce, isopropyl alcohol being the precursor, and sarin was used by Russia's client state, Syria.  Unknown is the amount of Novichok the Russians possess; it is the nerve agent used in the poisonings in Salisbury, UK and against political opponent of Putin, Alexei Navalny.  Another possibility is that the Russians were able to hide some CW from the OPCW inspectors for approximately twenty years. 

For good information on Ukrainian nuclear and biological activities and explanations of how there is nothing nefarious occuring, I recommend the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.  https://thebulletin.org/disruptive-technologies/ https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-risk/

I especially recommend two articles from the site, the first an analysis of Putin by professionals.  https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/inside-putins-head-paranoid-calculating-obsessed-by-the-conspiracy-theories-of-a-rehabilitated-russian-fascist/
The second on Russian use of nuclear weapons to "de-escalate a conflict on terms favorable to Russia."  https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-the-fine-print-russias-nuclear-weapon-use-policy/



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 10, 2022, 10:51:10 PM
Ukrainian farmer going for the gold!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNgUMXpWUAcbud_?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 10, 2022, 10:52:06 PM
That video reminds me of scenes from The Battle of the Bulge.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Boggit on March 10, 2022, 11:38:55 PM
SNIP.

No discussion related to religion and politics is presently permitted. Please follow rules and keep all comments related to a strategic or tactical military nature.

Thank you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 11, 2022, 12:04:30 AM
I laugh at the notion that Zelensky is a neonazi puppet because he used to be a comedian.  The neonazi political party makes up 2% of voters and 0 seats in gov't.  Putin's claims about neonazis in Ukraine are pure theater to justify war goals.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 11, 2022, 12:06:31 AM
you totally lost me at russians found bio labs.
and the rest of your post is just full retard.
seriously man, get the fuck out with that bullshit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Boggit on March 11, 2022, 12:49:25 AM
SNIP.

No discussion related to religion and politics is presently permitted. Please follow rules and keep all comments related to a strategic or tactical military nature.

Thank you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Boggit on March 11, 2022, 01:01:52 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 11, 2022, 12:06:31 AM
you totally lost me at russians found bio labs.
Have you been living under a rock? :idiot2:

SNIP.

No discussion related to religion and politics is presently permitted. Please follow rules and keep all comments related to a strategic or tactical military nature.

Thank you.

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 11, 2022, 12:06:31 AM
and the rest of your post is just full retard.
seriously man, get the fuck out with that bullshit.

Clearly you didn't take the time to look at any of the supporting evidence as to why I have arrived at my view.

I'm sorry that I couldn't condense it all into a kiddies cartoon so you'd understand it better. Is it cognitive dissonance on your part, or do you need any help in viewing YouTube videos? ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 11, 2022, 01:07:54 AM
clearly I dont need to watch the bullshit that your posting.
but good to know that youre a tinfoil hat kinda person.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNg47jEVcAoSuwu?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 11, 2022, 01:16:01 AM
Quote from: Boggit on March 11, 2022, 12:49:25 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 11, 2022, 12:04:30 AM
I laugh at the notion that Zelensky is a neonazi puppet because he used to be a comedian.  The neonazi political party makes up 2% of voters and 0 seats in gov't.  Putin's claims about neonazis in Ukraine are pure theater to justify war goals.
You misunderstand my point. Zelenskyy was a comedian. 2 years later he has amassed massive personal wealth at around $2B plus change. Don't you think that a bit odd to become so wealthy in such a short time to say the least?

I did not say "Zelensky is a neonazi puppet because he used to be a comedian". That is laughable because it is a straw man. You need to read the whole paragraph to understand the context.

I'll expand things a bit: I think Zelensky is a puppet, not necessarily just of the neo-Nazi's (although I think C14, Balitsky and the Svoboda party do have a hold over him as a serious force of political violence in Ukraine), but also of the EU and US political influence. His rapid gain in wealth is worth considering in view of the latter interests.

Did you look at any of the supporting evidence I provided supporting my views? Please do so, especially the Rodney Atkinson article (which is fairly short and won't take long [unless you check out the links that support his arguments]).

http://freenations.net/ukraine-nazis-embrace-nato-and-the-swastika-zelenskys-nazi-friends-crimes-of-azov-and-aidar-battalions-murder-outside-mariupol/

Read this as well:
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/04/how-zelensky-made-peace-with-neo-nazis/
https://towardfreedom.org/story/archives/europe/how-ukraines-jewish-president-volodymyr-zelensky-made-peace-with-neo-nazi-paramilitaries-on-front-lines-of-war-with-russia/

When you have checked that out let me know whether you still think that Zelensky is not a puppet or at least not influenced by what Ukrainian neo-Nazis want.

My view is in part that he is influenced by them, but also by others who have a hegemonic interest in Ukraine. Don't forget that the Azov and AIDAR battalions have been incorporated officially into the Ukrainian National Guard, thus are now an arm of the state. Not only that he has decorated members of the Far Right with the "Hero of the Ukraine".

He also allows the neo-Nazi street vigilantes known as the National Corps to be deployed across the country (like the SA in Hitler's Germany) under the nominal control of the Interior Ministry. If he opposed them that would not be the case. Is he influenced or not by Far Right and neo-Nazi's?

The notion that Zelensky is merely a puppet of the west or neo-nazi interests seems to have been debunked by the fact that the lower level government and governed peoples did not turn on him the moment the wind seemed to be blowing against him.  That everyone in Ukraine staunchly supports Zelensky seems to support the notion that he's a legitimate patriot who represents Ukraine's best interests.  Does it not?

I have no doubt that Ukraine has a neo-Nazi problem, just as the United States does.  I do not know if Zelensky is personally influenced by neo-Nazi interests.

@Starfury, my dude, I tend to agree with your points but I'd appreciate if you could elucidate them in an intelligent and thoughtful manner when someone expresses a countering viewpoint.   :-\
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 11, 2022, 01:26:21 AM
nope, Im going to call out stupidity when I see it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Boggit on March 11, 2022, 01:27:35 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 11, 2022, 01:07:54 AM
clearly I dont need to watch the bullshit that your posting.
but good to know that youre a tinfoil hat kinda person.
Why is that clear you "don't need to watch..." and I'm  "... a tinfoil hat kinda person"?

Are you afraid of learning something that might challenge your perceptions?

Is Professor Mearsheimer, whom I cite, and who is one of the world's leading experts on international relations talking BS and a "tinfoil hat kinda person" too?

I might be wrong but at least I have looked at both sides of the coin before coming to my conclusions. You should listen to arguments before rejecting them.

You attack me instead because you have no answer to what I am saying, but you desperately want to win the point. I wish you did have a point, it would make things so much more interesting.

If I am wrong convince me with your arguments and evidence, otherwise you're just an ignorant bigot.  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 11, 2022, 01:31:01 AM
1. This entire line of conversation violates our rules against political discussion. It has nothing to do with the military strategic or tactical considerations of the conflict. So, all of you shut the fuck up or the thread will be locked and that would be a shame.

2. Starfury, you're banned for 24 hours. I've warned you far too many times and you can use a break. Use the time wisely to reflect on how you treat other people who have different views.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Boggit on March 11, 2022, 01:45:43 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 11, 2022, 01:16:01 AM

The notion that Zelensky is merely a puppet of the west or neo-nazi interests seems to have been debunked by the fact that the lower level government and governed peoples did not turn on him the moment the wind seemed to be blowing against him.  That everyone in Ukraine staunchly supports Zelensky seems to support the notion that he's a legitimate patriot who represents Ukraine's best interests.  Does it not?

I have no doubt that Ukraine has a neo-Nazi problem, just as the United States does.  I do not know if Zelensky is personally influenced by neo-Nazi interests.

@Starfury, my dude, I tend to agree with your points but I'd appreciate if you could elucidate them in an intelligent and thoughtful manner when someone expresses a countering viewpoint.   :-\
To be honest I think that's open to debate.

Clearly there is nuance to all of this and the present situation isn't going to resolve the rise of neo-Nazism in Ukraine until it is settled and even then it probably won't as either Zelensky will be painted a national hero or will die or skip Ukraine if it is finally occupied.

If you look at the rise of C14 and the Svoboda Party from 2014 to present it has grown and entrenched itself in Ukrainian society and especially in east Ukraine. Have a look at the BBC docu I posted - Ukraine: On patrol with the far-right National Militia and see whether that makes my position any clearer. If an organisation is entrenched into the state - at face value it - is hard for a president not to be influenced

I suggest that the neo-Nazi problem is probably much bigger in the Ukraine than the US as elements of it are now embedded in state infrastructure. The US has no comparable organisation. Even the KKK was never formally integrated into the US state even if President Biden did have friendly links with them.
https://www.independentsentinel.com/we-have-bidens-eulogy-of-the-exalted-cyclops-of-the-kkk-robert-c-byrd/

I agree with your comment to Starfarter, but will add that his points are basically rebuttals without evidence. Whether he has the intelligence to convey his points in an intelligent and thoughtful manner remains to be seen. You may have him stumped at the word "elucidate" though... ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Boggit on March 11, 2022, 01:47:09 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 11, 2022, 01:31:01 AM
1. This entire line of conversation violates our rules against political discussion. It has nothing to do with the military strategic or tactical considerations of the conflict. So, all of you shut the fuck up or the thread will be locked and that would be a shame.

2. Starfury, you're banned for 24 hours. I've warned you far too many times and you can use a break. Use the time wisely to reflect on how you treat other people who have different views.
Sorry. Posted before I saw this. :-[
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 11, 2022, 02:11:57 AM
So have the Russians sorted out their supply problems and are lining up for an organised assault across multiple fronts.. OR... are institutional corruption, sanctions and internal dissent forcing the high command to desperately push ahead everywhere and hope that enough thrusts succeed to swing events more in their favor before it all falls apart? ( Or everyone goes home to play DW2)

Will the Western public get bored of the War footage and begin to ignore it in favor of inflation whining and sports?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 11, 2022, 03:57:03 AM
Quote from: solops on March 11, 2022, 02:11:57 AM
So have the Russians sorted out their supply problems and are lining up for an organised assault across multiple fronts.. OR... are institutional corruption, sanctions and internal dissent forcing the high command to desperately push ahead everywhere and hope that enough thrusts succeed to swing events more in their favor before it all falls apart? ( Or everyone goes home to play DW2)

Will the Western public get bored of the War footage and begin to ignore it in favor of inflation whining and sports?

No. There is no indication that the Russians are learning from their mistakes, altering their strategy or adapting to the situation on the ground.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 11, 2022, 06:32:40 AM
on RPGs

Ukrainian soldier seems to be quit happy with his fresh unboxed Panzerfaust 3T  :)
(he still has to put on the Griffstück so ;-) ...see demonstational video below)

https://twitter.com/Ozkok_A/status/1502226644039262214/photo/1

(https://i.ibb.co/zmhB7s1/FNj7-Kz-AWQAU1krp.jpg)

get some  :bd:


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 11, 2022, 09:00:57 AM
This is the sort of stuff I find fascinating.
Turns out that with everything else going wrong for the Russians that their Comms might be beyond help.  Bodes very poorly for them in getting their crap together.  Advantage Ukraine if this keeps up
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-comms-ukraine-world-hertz

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 11, 2022, 09:06:18 AM
Quote from: solops on March 11, 2022, 02:11:57 AM
So have the Russians sorted out their supply problems and are lining up for an organised assault across multiple fronts.. OR... are institutional corruption, sanctions and internal dissent forcing the high command to desperately push ahead everywhere and hope that enough thrusts succeed to swing events more in their favor before it all falls apart? ( Or everyone goes home to play DW2)

Will the Western public get bored of the War footage and begin to ignore it in favor of inflation whining and sports?

  Don't know about all that, but I guess we are in for months of destruction since there seems to be no way to stop this war.  I guess eventually the Russians will obliterate Ukraine.
But at least Lukashenko is still alive.  The meeting must have been rough for him:

  Putin: "Not dead yet?  Lubby?  Can I call you Lubby?"
Lubby: "No.  You changed the flowers since last time."
Putin : "No.  Those were poison flowers.  They cannot be changed.  They are the same flowers."
Lubby: "I see."
Putin: "But I do have a little fatal illness for you: a random sample of just one of the hundreds of diseases we found in NATO's secret labs."
Lubby:"Ha!  You are the funny man!"
Putin: "I'm sure it will kill you.  The Chinese agree it is the most lethal thing they've ever seen -- not that they have seen anything lethal like it ever before."
Lubby: "Remarkable."
Putin: "Listen, you will be very, very, very, very sick and then you will die."
Lubby: "A good plan, but I need to be getting back to Belarus."
Putin: "Never mind then.  I kill you another time."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 11, 2022, 09:26:02 AM
Quote from: Con on March 11, 2022, 09:00:57 AM
This is the sort of stuff I find fascinating.
Turns out that with everything else going wrong for the Russians that their Comms might be beyond help.  Bodes very poorly for them in getting their crap together.  Advantage Ukraine if this keeps up
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-comms-ukraine-world-hertz

Forbes has an article on how the lack of security of BaoFeng radios can be exploited.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/01/shaken-russian-army-conscripts-make-perfect-targets-for-morale-crushing-operations/?sh=53e9357951f8
QuotePutin appears to have sent many rank-and-file Russian soldiers into battle with cheap, dime-store Baofeng radios. With a little "help," these flimsy, unencrypted civilian communicators can become educational nodes—transforming conscript radios into a friendly voice, offering basic Russian soldiers trusted information from kindly fellow Slavs. Mobile ground stations can be brought in and even specialized "Information Operations" platforms like the secretive U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command EC-130J Commando Solo aircraft can be employed beyond the Ukrainian border to provide detailed information to crumbling Russian units. Rather than provide instructions from far-off Russian officers, these radios can tell hungry Russian conscripts how Putin betrayed the Russian Army and every single soldier in it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 11, 2022, 09:48:50 AM
Some interesting thoughts on the impact on the war for wargame design.

https://rockymountainnavy.com/2022/03/09/wargame-wednesday-wheres-my-supply/ (https://rockymountainnavy.com/2022/03/09/wargame-wednesday-wheres-my-supply/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 11, 2022, 10:38:47 AM
Wow all the crazy sh*t happens in this thread while I am literally sleeping.

Anyway, hearkening back a few pages, I thought I was hallucinating again or woke up in 1920 when I saw footage of a Russian armored train last night.

Incredible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 11, 2022, 11:41:45 AM
Thanks to everyone for the info on RPG's/ Panzerfausts. So, will this war prove, or dis-prove, the idea that the Main Battle Tank is obsolete like we've been hearing for, what, 20+ years?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 11, 2022, 11:57:06 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 11, 2022, 09:48:50 AM
Some interesting thoughts on the impact on the war for wargame design.

https://rockymountainnavy.com/2022/03/09/wargame-wednesday-wheres-my-supply/ (https://rockymountainnavy.com/2022/03/09/wargame-wednesday-wheres-my-supply/)

  Surely not taking cities is a problem for your road net.  I'm going to go play naval games for a while.  And in honor of the Ukrainians, I'm giving the Virginia class SSNs some extra-stealthy options and
reducing the options for Chinese kilos and Yuans and Soougs (only a 50% chance of being "Still" and only if they didn't cavitate in the turn before).  So there!  Crappy commie and ex-commie regimes!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 11, 2022, 12:07:59 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 11, 2022, 11:41:45 AM
Thanks to everyone for the info on RPG's/ Panzerfausts. So, will this war prove, or dis-prove, the idea that the Main Battle Tank is obsolete like we've been hearing for, what, 20+ years?
A MBT can survive on today's battlefield with good modern armour like Chobham which has layers of ceramic armour to absorb a HEAT jet and a depleted uranium armour to defeat kinetic strikes.  The Russian Kornet ATGM is a powerful threat and has destroyed MBTs but a good active protective system can defeat missiles.  Also a good kevlar spall liner can protect even ifv against catastrophic damage from small HEAT warheads.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 11, 2022, 12:49:29 PM
Jesus...this is probably the absolute worst time for this to happen:

India Accidentally Fires Missile Into Pakistan  :o

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60711653
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 11, 2022, 01:03:32 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 11, 2022, 12:49:29 PM
Jesus...this is probably the absolute worst time for this to happen:

India Accidentally Fires Missile Into Pakistan  :o

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60711653

Pakistan will raise a stink about it, but I'm doubtful they will escalate it.  I thought the two countries would go to war over Kashmir two years ago, but so far nothing.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-50233281

btw both countries are abstaining from votes to condemn Russia's invasion at the UN.  India is dependent on Russia for arms, including finishing delivery of S-400 systems.  I believe Pakistan wants to increase trade with Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 11, 2022, 01:18:25 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 11, 2022, 10:38:47 AM
Wow all the crazy sh*t happens in this thread while I am literally sleeping.

At least it didn't happen while you were figuratively sleeping.   :P
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 11, 2022, 01:36:56 PM
Not sure if that would be better or worse. Probably worse.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 11, 2022, 02:48:23 PM
Regarding the possibility of chemical and/or biological weapons in Ukraine that could lead to escalation, watch this video. Russell Brand is hardly a Fox News watching neo-con.

This has relevance to the extent those weapons may exist in the warzone and the evidence seems to warrant some actual concern, rather than casting it off as some kind of a conspiracy theory.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 11, 2022, 03:16:17 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 11, 2022, 02:48:23 PM
Regarding the possibility of chemical and/or biological weapons in Ukraine that could lead to escalation, watch this video. Russell Brand is hardly a Fox News watching neo-con.

This has relevance to the extent those weapons may exist in the warzone and the evidence seems to warrant some actual concern, rather than casting it off as some kind of a conspiracy theory.


  Didn't the official US briefing suggest concern?  Didn't that somehow trigger a lot of misunderstandings?  As I understand it there are some labs and it would be nice if the Russians didn't mess
with them.  I suspect on the scale of likely consequences, whatever happens with the labs is going to be pretty minor compared to a few more days or weeks or months of
warfare and economic chaos.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 11, 2022, 03:26:18 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 11, 2022, 03:16:17 PM
I suspect on the scale of likely consequences, whatever happens with the labs is going to be pretty minor compared to a few more days or weeks or months of
warfare and economic chaos.

...and you're basing this opinion on what, exactly? The use of chemical and/or biological weapons, which are considered weapons of mass destruction, in theater would represent a tremendous escalation of the conflict.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Silent Disapproval Robot on March 11, 2022, 03:28:09 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 11, 2022, 02:48:23 PM
Regarding the possibility of chemical and/or biological weapons in Ukraine that could lead to escalation, watch this video. Russell Brand is hardly a Fox News watching neo-con.

This has relevance to the extent those weapons may exist in the warzone and the evidence seems to warrant some actual concern, rather than casting it off as some kind of a conspiracy theory.




God I wish he'd put on a normal shirt...just once.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 11, 2022, 03:35:30 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 11, 2022, 03:26:18 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 11, 2022, 03:16:17 PM
I suspect on the scale of likely consequences, whatever happens with the labs is going to be pretty minor compared to a few more days or weeks or months of
warfare and economic chaos.

...and you're basing this opinion on what, exactly? The use of chemical and/or biological weapons, which are considered weapons of mass destruction, in theater would represent a tremendous escalation of the conflict.

   I'm basing it on my doubts that there are any weaponized agents at all in any of the labs.  You can have all kinds of things in labs that should not be messed with, but that's
completely different from any kind of systematically weaponized agents or delivery devices.  Also I think the conflict (or rather the complete destruction of Ukraine) is going to
escalate all on its own -- most likely with no chemical or biological weapons being used at all.  I think we are looking at a war that is not going to be stopped until Ukraine is
more or less completely destroyed.  If some diseases get sucked into the mix they are going to be barely noticible compared to endless missiles and artillery.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 11, 2022, 04:05:51 PM
QuotePutin 'has placed the head of the FSB's foreign intelligence branch under house arrest because he is furious at security services for failing to warn him' that Ukraine could fiercely resist invasion

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10603045/Putin-places-head-FSBs-foreign-intelligence-branch-house-arrest.html

I guess Putin is getting a lesson in surrounding himself with Yes Men.  :uglystupid2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 11, 2022, 04:16:18 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 11, 2022, 04:05:51 PM
QuotePutin 'has placed the head of the FSB's foreign intelligence branch under house arrest because he is furious at security services for failing to warn him' that Ukraine could fiercely resist invasion

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10603045/Putin-places-head-FSBs-foreign-intelligence-branch-house-arrest.html

I guess Putin is getting a lesson in surrounding himself with Yes Men.  :uglystupid2:

Putin used to be in charge of the FSB (according to the article). 
i guess the "repressions" are the "repressions" of the FSB director and his assistant.  I guess embezzling funds intended for subversion has a subversive aspect all its own.
I'm puzzled that Putin would believe in the "token resistance" thing -- but clearly he did.  I quote some more of the article:


   Putin is said to blame the agency for intelligence which assured him ahead of the invasion that Russian forces would face only token resistance from the Ukrainian army and that Ukrainians themselves were eager to be rid of their leaders.

Among the reasons for the repressions are the embezzlement of funds allocated for subversive and undercover work in Ukraine, as well as deliberately false information about the political situation in Ukraine.

The FSB security service allegedly handed him intelligence suggesting that Ukraine was weak, riddled with neo-Nazi groups, and would give up easily if attacked.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 11, 2022, 04:39:49 PM
Perhaps he's setting up his escape plan for Ukraine?  "I was mislead into attacking by my security services. It was an unfortunate misunderstanding." 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 11, 2022, 04:47:13 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 11, 2022, 04:05:51 PM
QuotePutin 'has placed the head of the FSB's foreign intelligence branch under house arrest because he is furious at security services for failing to warn him' that Ukraine could fiercely resist invasion

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10603045/Putin-places-head-FSBs-foreign-intelligence-branch-house-arrest.html

I guess Putin is getting a lesson in surrounding himself with Yes Men.  :uglystupid2:

There was also that strange story a week ago where the Ukrainians were claiming that FSB agents tipped them off about the attempted assassination attempt on Zelensky by the Chechen hit team. Could just be the Ukrainians trying to play head games with Putin, or it might be true.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 11, 2022, 04:50:04 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 11, 2022, 04:47:13 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 11, 2022, 04:05:51 PM
QuotePutin 'has placed the head of the FSB's foreign intelligence branch under house arrest because he is furious at security services for failing to warn him' that Ukraine could fiercely resist invasion

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10603045/Putin-places-head-FSBs-foreign-intelligence-branch-house-arrest.html

I guess Putin is getting a lesson in surrounding himself with Yes Men.  :uglystupid2:

There was also that strange story a week ago where the Ukrainians were claiming that FSB agents tipped them off about the attempted assassination attempt on Zelensky by the Chechen hit team. Could just be the Ukrainians trying to play head games with Putin, or it might be true.

  Maybe the FSB is not particularly fond of Chechens.  Maybe the FSB set this all up as an extremely sneaky way to remove Putin from power and nab all the cryptocurrency on the planet in one
fell swoop.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 11, 2022, 05:35:49 PM
What's really amusing about all this, from a Groghead perspective, is just how much Putin proved himself to be a total armchair general.  Watching the invasion of Ukraine play out is like watching somebody try to play a John Tiller game for the very first time while attempting to apply StarCraft tactics, getting frustrated that they don't work, and refusing to engage with any game systems beyond "move units" and "attack enemies".

I could imagine him as a once-in-a-while regular here who pops in every few months to post about DCS or War in the East, drop a hot take about Russian military supremacy based on some obscure and poorly documented engagement that happened in Afghanistan or Georgia or somewhere, and then vanish again not to be seen until months later - rinse and repeat.   :nerd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 11, 2022, 06:19:07 PM
I didn't watch all of Russell Brand's video, but I did read Greenwald's article.  https://greenwald.substack.com/p/victoria-nuland-ukraine-has-biological?s=r
QuoteAny attempt to claim that Ukraine's biological facilities are just benign and standard medical labs is negated by Nuland's explicitly grave concern that "Russian forces may be seeking to gain control of" those facilities and that the U.S. Government therefore is, right this minute, "working with the Ukrainians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces." Russia has its own advanced medical labs. After all, it was one of the first countries to develop a COVID vaccine, one which Lancet, on February 1, 2021, pronounced was " safe and effective" (even though U.S. officials pressured multiple countries, including Brazil, not to accept any Russian vaccine, while U.S. allies such as Australia refused for a full year to recognize the Russian COVID vaccine for purposes of its vaccine mandate). The only reason to be "quite concerned" about these "biological research facilities" falling into Russian hands is if they contain sophisticated materials that Russian scientists have not yet developed on their own and which could be used for nefarious purposes — i.e., either advanced biological weapons or dual-use "research" that has the potential to be weaponized.

Unfortunately, this is rather typical and dangerous and I've argued so in the R&P section.  Greenwald doesn't implicitly state gain of function is being done but it most likely was happening at the labs.  Also on page 79 of this thread, from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists article, I quoted Robert Pope, the director of the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, as saying "Some labs, he said, may hold pathogen strains left over from the Soviet bioweapons program, preserved in freezers for research purposes."  These are both very bad situations especially in a warzone and of concern to everyone.  Is it bioweapons research or just justifiable medical research?  Well it's dual purpose even without malign intent.

QuoteThe indisputable reality is that — despite long-standing international conventions banning development of biological weapons — all large, powerful countries conduct research that, at the very least, has the capacity to be converted into biological weapons. The work conducted under the guise of "defensive research" can, and sometimes is, easily converted into the banned weapons themselves. Recall that, according to the FBI, the 2001 anthrax attacks that terrorized the nation came from a U.S. Army Research scientist, Dr. Bruce Ivins, working at the U.S. Army's infectious disease research lab in Fort Detrick, Maryland. The claim was that the Army was "merely" conducting defensive research to find vaccines and other protections against weaponized anthrax, but to do so, the Army had to create highly weaponized anthrax strains, which Ivins then unleashed as a weapon.
QuoteAll of this illustrates that research that is classified as "defensive" can easily be converted, deliberately or otherwise, into extremely destructive biological weapons.

Greenwald makes very good points of the dangers of these technologies, and it is possible, however unlikely for Ukraine to produce a Bruce Ivins.  So, Russia may have genuine grievances about dual use experimentation but why are they bringing it up today?  Russia initially justified its aggression on the basis of self-defence/protection from genocide.  I have not found any demands put before the UN prior to invasion for inspection of Ukrainian facilities whether biological or whatever.  Russia could easily have asked for a UN Special Commision like Iraq had from 1991-1998 to search for WMD.  I have no evidence of such a demand before the UN, and then rejection by the same until today. Truly, if Russia is genuinely concerned about the release of pathogens, destroying civilian infrastructure and cutting off power isn't going to be productive to prevent release.

If bioweapons truly are a concern, surely the Russian ambassador to the UN could have asked for a ceasefire today, seperation of warring parties by peacekeepers from Ireland, Ghana, Fiji, wherever, and then protection/restoration of facilities, followed by inspections of all of Ukraine for any kind of potential WMD. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 11, 2022, 07:35:18 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 11, 2022, 05:35:49 PM
What's really amusing about all this, from a Groghead perspective, is just how much Putin proved himself to be a total armchair general.  Watching the invasion of Ukraine play out is like watching somebody try to play a John Tiller game for the very first time while attempting to apply StarCraft tactics, getting frustrated that they don't work, and refusing to engage with any game systems beyond "move units" and "attack enemies".

I could imagine him as a once-in-a-while regular here who pops in every few months to post about DCS or War in the East, drop a hot take about Russian military supremacy based on some obscure and poorly documented engagement that happened in Afghanistan or Georgia or somewhere, and then vanish again not to be seen until months later - rinse and repeat.   :nerd:

  Until the invasion of Ukraine, I thought the Russian Government and Putin had a moderately good grasp of basic reality.  Now I hope they are no more inept than a contextually-challenged wargamer, but
that may be far over-estimating them.  For example, their own S-300 air defense systems, designed and built in Russia and now used by Ukraine, seems to be more than they can handle.  How is that
possible?  Are all the good technicians in Syria?  Next, what was the point in attacking Ukraine?  They already had Crimea and Luboshevki and Duskoslavinko.  Why do anything with the risk of confirming
everybody's worst assumptions about Russia?  Even if Ukraine had surrendered and even if the Ukrainian Army took over what possible benefit could balance the stunning loss of credibility?  And now where are they?  Even if they eventually destroy Ukraine -- how is that better?  The will have simply multiplied and unified the very threats they might have feared, and wrecked their economy and gotten a lot of their stuff destroyed.  And who is going to buy Russian gear except at bargin prices after all this?  Will Pakistan become the sad junkyard of Russian junk while India buys better gear from Europe?  There is just no end of the downside to attacking Ukraine.  It seems far beyond any folly any wargamer could have devised.

The leaders of Russia and Belarus have agreed on collaborating further in the near future, according to the state-owned Belarusian Telegraph Agency (BelTA).

According to BelTA, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko agreed on deliveries — by Russia to the Republic of Belarus — of the most modern models of military equipment in the near future.



   Right, cuz who else is going to want piles of loser gear?  Probably even Pakistan is already signaling -- please don't send us any more junk.

 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 11, 2022, 11:23:39 PM
So now it's the Russians who built the Bio-Research Labs in Ukraine, then left behind strains of deadly biological warfare agents in some dark corner, completely missed for 30 years, but that Ms. Nuland has known about all along, and now fears Putin will get his blood-stained hands on, and begin the Zombie Apocalypse. Damn, I wished I'd thought of that.

Is it just me or is Brand trying to look like Jesus?  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on March 12, 2022, 12:58:00 AM
Me and some of the boys made the decision to join the UFL and are leaving next week to go fight.

See you cats on the flip side.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 12, 2022, 01:26:48 AM
As has been mentioned above, there are plenty of strains in a biological research lab that can be weaponized.  Research labs tend to focus on the stuff that we worry about, which means it's bound to have some kind of long-term potential.

While I'm not naively trusting everything I hear from the Ukrainians, the Russians have squandered most of their credibility on this topic in the last two weeks.  I could list why, but I doubt I need to.  As has been mentioned above, this does seem to be a rather awkward time to raise these concerns.

As for the Nazis in the Ukraine, I've heard mainstream media confirm that there has been a growing strain of neo-Nazi sentiment in Ukraine in recent years.  The Azov Brigade in particular is a paramilitary group (numbers about 900 strong, by estimate) that has been vigorously involved in some of the fighting against the Russian-backed separatists in the two occupied regions back before Russia invaded the rest of Ukraine.  The notion that they are therefore running the Ukrainian government seems crazy far-fetched and has been rebutted by numerous regional experts that I've heard speak.

I'm keeping an open mind on the topic, but the preponderance of evidence here is not on Putin's side.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 12, 2022, 04:10:06 AM
News flash! Dr. Anthony Fauci announced strict, new guidelines today mandating that anyone entering the Ukraine MUST wear a mask to prevent infection by deadly, engineered bioweapons. And also hold your breath for the duration of your visit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 07:11:27 AM
Quote from: solops on March 12, 2022, 04:10:06 AM
News flash! Dr. Anthony Fauci announced strict, new guidelines today mandating that anyone entering the Ukraine MUST wear a mask to prevent infection by deadly, engineered bioweapons. And also hold your breath for the duration of your visit.

This is a blatant violation of our forum rule against RPFW content. This is your warning to please not violate it again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 08:10:50 AM
the setup for Kiev:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/russia-concentrates-military-power-for-kyiv-assault/

and heres the real meat of the article"
QuoteSpeaking late on March 11, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov said Russia since Feb. 24 had 18 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) rendered combat-ineffective in clashes with the Ukrainian military. Thirteen more BTGs have been completely destroyed in action, according to the official.
QuoteUpon the think tank estimates, up to a total of 45,000 Russian military personnel could have been forced out of action as killed, wounded, taken prisoner, or demoralized, after two weeks of fierce fighting.

This might correspond to up to one-third of Russia's total military contingent deployed against Ukraine, the expert suggests.

this is the real reason the russians are banging the bioweapon drum so late in the game.  its either an attempt at saving face or a reason to escalate their use of 'bigger' weapons.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 08:16:18 AM
and todays map update.  the full thread is linked below.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNoNdJ1WUAAD_Cv?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502528320369569792

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 08:19:35 AM
40 years of soviet tank design

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNlQhIiX0AcMGzp?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 12, 2022, 08:53:18 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 08:16:18 AM
and todays map update.  the full thread is linked below.


  I say wow to the map.  It looks like if the Ukrainians can get weapons, they will outnumber the Russians pretty seriously.  Another reason the Russians may want to use poison gas: lots lots and lots of Ukrainian troops.  On a not-really related note from CNN:



Russia said Saturday it was ready to work again with the United States on security issues and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).

"If the Americans are ready for this, we will, of course, be able to resume dialogue and are determined to do so, as well as to work on the START, where there is also a certain pause," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Channel One, state media RIA Novosti reported.

"It all depends on Washington," he added.

According to Ryabkov, Russia did not stop dialogue with the US. "We have not withdrawn from the US strategic stability dialogue. It has been suspended by Washington, apparently under the illusion that we need this dialogue more than Washington. Absolutely not," Ryabkov said.

Ryabkov added that Russia has prepared a list of retaliatory personal sanctions against the US and the West that will be made public soon.


Okay so that's not too hard to parce: the Russians are running out of shit to shovel and now its the fault of the US that they still have nukes.  Of course we know what talking to them
at this point about anything is like: nothing but threats, so why bother?  And the final note is pretty pathetic  -- retaliatory personal sanctions?  Does somebody like Tim Cook have a
personal yatch sitting in Vladivostok or something?

Some megayatching news:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-the-wednesday-edition-1.6378936/how-an-ex-cia-agent-is-tracking-the-luxurious-superyachts-of-russian-oligarchs-1.6378964

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 09:02:26 AM
pretty easy low hanging fruit on the bio labs:

https://www.bbc.com/news/60711705?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_custom2=twitter&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=75FF11D8-A17A-11EC-BA2A-72C9923C408C&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom3=%40BBCWorld

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/11/how-right-embraced-russian-disinformation-about-us-bioweapons-labs-ukraine/

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/feb/25/tweets/there-are-no-us-run-biolabs-ukraine-contrary-socia/

https://ua.usembassy.gov/embassy/kyiv/sections-offices/defense-threat-reduction-office/biological-threat-reduction-program/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/us-bioweapons-ukraine-misinformation.html



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 09:05:06 AM
now for some fun!  syria sends 1000s of troops to russia as if thats going to go well.
the response is Abu 'TOW'!  146 kills with atgm's.

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/features/meet-famed-and-feared-elite-syrian-rebel-fighter-abu-tow
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 09:08:17 AM
trying to figure out how to embed twitter and tiktok videos, not much success

https://twitter.com/i/status/1502296533340987394
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 09:11:26 AM
love this guy!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1502635747467309061
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 09:33:01 AM
lets attack at the end of winter!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNlIWTgXIAAUAFF?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 12, 2022, 09:40:56 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 09:33:01 AM
lets attack at the end of winter!


  It looks like they didn't even clip the counters in the back of the truck.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 09:45:13 AM
does make ya wonder how this would have worked out if they had started in april.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 12, 2022, 09:58:19 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 09:45:13 AM
does make ya wonder how this would have worked out if they had started in april.

  I've noticed mixed things about that.  Apparently spring came early this year -- but suppose the Russians could have driven farther in the first day or two, either because the ground was frozen or
the mud had dried.  EArly on they thought things were going to be easy peasy -- so harder ground just might have gotten more Russian loses since the Ukrainians very craftily did not do a "Token defense"
on the edg of their territory, but waited until Russian forces where pretty deep before ambushing them.  Less mud might have just meant more Russian losses.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 12, 2022, 10:02:08 AM
The Ukrainians are claiming to have killed a 3rd Russian general.   It sounds like there are serious OPSEC problems with the Russians, and that their physical security is lacking.  The physical security is possibly a by-product of them appearing to be road-bound.  That may prevent them forming the necessary security cordon around their HVUs.  The OPSEC issue is surprising, though.  Possibly this indicates NATO/US intel being supplied?  I have seen reports of that, but this would imply NATO is supplying not just troop movements, but leadership movement info.  Of course, that would be NATO doctrine: go for the Soviet HQs.  Interesting...

https://www.westernjournal.com/ukrainian-defenders-announce-pulled-off-hat-trick-decapitation-russian-forces/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=AE&utm_campaign=can&utm_content=2022-03-12
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 10:05:36 AM
from what Ive read the russians are using regular cell phones to communicate with each other.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 10:21:12 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 10:05:36 AM
from what Ive read the russians are using regular cell phones to communicate with each other.

So are Ukrainians. The Russians are mostly using cheap unincrypted baofengs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 12, 2022, 10:35:09 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 10:21:12 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 10:05:36 AM
from what Ive read the russians are using regular cell phones to communicate with each other.

So are Ukrainians. The Russians are mostly using cheap unincrypted baofengs.

IMHO, while tactically the unencrypted handsets would cause problems for some of the company sized maneuver units, the movement of HVUs would be discussed via encrypted networks.  On the Other Hand, the Ukrainians have captured enough prisoners/deserters/equipment that maybe the encrypted networks have been compromised.  On the Other, Other Hand, that gets back to poor OPSEC: if you are losing comms gear, you need to change your codes
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 10:41:05 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 12, 2022, 10:35:09 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 10:21:12 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 10:05:36 AM
from what Ive read the russians are using regular cell phones to communicate with each other.

So are Ukrainians. The Russians are mostly using cheap unincrypted baofengs.

IMHO, while tactically the unencrypted handsets would cause problems for some of the company sized maneuver units, the movement of HVUs would be discussed via encrypted networks.  On the Other Hand, the Ukrainians have captured enough prisoners/deserters/equipment that maybe the encrypted networks have been compromised.  On the Other, Other Hand, that gets back to poor OPSEC: if you are losing comms gear, you need to change your codes

Their rations expired in 2015 and you expect them to have encrypted comms gear and to observe OPSEC?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 12, 2022, 11:07:04 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 10:41:05 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 12, 2022, 10:35:09 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 10:21:12 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 10:05:36 AM
from what Ive read the russians are using regular cell phones to communicate with each other.

So are Ukrainians. The Russians are mostly using cheap unincrypted baofengs.

IMHO, while tactically the unencrypted handsets would cause problems for some of the company sized maneuver units, the movement of HVUs would be discussed via encrypted networks.  On the Other Hand, the Ukrainians have captured enough prisoners/deserters/equipment that maybe the encrypted networks have been compromised.  On the Other, Other Hand, that gets back to poor OPSEC: if you are losing comms gear, you need to change your codes

Their rations expired in 2015 and you expect them to have encrypted comms gear and to observe OPSEC?
From 2016, a malware hack of Ukrainian artillery cell phone app caused countery-battery fire.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-hacking-proves-lethal-after-ukrainian-military-app-compromised/
QuoteBasically, malware turned the phones using the app into beacons. Those beacons were then used to target Ukrainian military units.

I'm surprised that cell phones are even used on the battlefield, but amongst other problems, Russian EW doesn't appear to be much of a threat. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 12, 2022, 11:13:34 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 10:41:05 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 12, 2022, 10:35:09 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 10:21:12 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 10:05:36 AM
from what Ive read the russians are using regular cell phones to communicate with each other.

So are Ukrainians. The Russians are mostly using cheap unincrypted baofengs.

IMHO, while tactically the unencrypted handsets would cause problems for some of the company sized maneuver units, the movement of HVUs would be discussed via encrypted networks.  On the Other Hand, the Ukrainians have captured enough prisoners/deserters/equipment that maybe the encrypted networks have been compromised.  On the Other, Other Hand, that gets back to poor OPSEC: if you are losing comms gear, you need to change your codes

Their rations expired in 2015 and you expect them to have encrypted comms gear and to observe OPSEC?

Fair point.  But I would argue (from the perspective of a Russian general) there is a difference between feeding the men moldy food and having poor encryption when the General's life is at stake.  I would assume that they have some good encryption capabilities at least at the BTG+ level (although they evidently don't at the company and below level, and possibly the BTG level.  This has been a surprise to me, as I would have thought that such a major shortcoming would have been identified and corrected in the fighting since 2014.  That, and the fact is completely obvious based on a thousand years of military history.). 

With all of this said, many of my personal assumptions about the quality of Russian ground forces has been challenged in the last 15 days.  (as an aside on that, I'm not alone.  The assumptions of many professional analysts have been shaken.  In fact, "Putin's Excellent Ukrainian Adventure" may  globally have caused such a radical reevaluation of Russian military capabilities soas to imperil Russia's geopolitical power. For a semi-contrarian view, see Michael Kofman, who argues not to go overboard on downplaying Russian military capabilities as the result of the Russia's performance in the Ukraine war.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 12, 2022, 11:21:50 AM
Quote from: DetCord on March 12, 2022, 12:58:00 AM
Me and some of the boys made the decision to join the UFL and are leaving next week to go fight.

See you cats on the flip side.

Stay safe.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 12, 2022, 11:25:28 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 09:02:26 AM
pretty easy low hanging fruit on the bio labs:

https://www.bbc.com/news/60711705?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_custom2=twitter&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=75FF11D8-A17A-11EC-BA2A-72C9923C408C&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom3=%40BBCWorld

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/11/how-right-embraced-russian-disinformation-about-us-bioweapons-labs-ukraine/

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/feb/25/tweets/there-are-no-us-run-biolabs-ukraine-contrary-socia/

https://ua.usembassy.gov/embassy/kyiv/sections-offices/defense-threat-reduction-office/biological-threat-reduction-program/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/us-bioweapons-ukraine-misinformation.html

Yes, but sometimes chicanery can be a good thing, especially for peace.  I think the UN missed an opportunity to propose a ceasefire to Russia or at least score propaganda points.  Better to have everyone squabbling at a table and engaged in a wild goose chase for WMDs.  Especially so with the Russian military's options running out. 

For such a proposal, the worst that Russia could do would be to reject it, and then how would they look.  The action chosen would also make the Russian's true motives for the invasion transparent.

To be vulgar, to put a stop to the fighting and further escalation, everyone will have 'to eat some shit.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 12, 2022, 11:26:32 AM
I wonder if the Russian army ineptness is really just a ploy to give them an excuse to use the weapons no one wants to talk about. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 12, 2022, 11:27:01 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 12, 2022, 11:21:50 AM
Quote from: DetCord on March 12, 2022, 12:58:00 AM
Me and some of the boys made the decision to join the UFL and are leaving next week to go fight.

See you cats on the flip side.

Stay safe.

Yes, stay safe.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 12, 2022, 11:46:32 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 12, 2022, 11:13:34 AM

This has been a surprise to me, as I would have thought that such a major shortcoming would have been identified and corrected in the fighting since 2014.  That, and the fact is completely obvious based on a thousand years of military history.). 


  Remember that since 2003, they have been mostly fighting pretty unsophisticated groups (Chechens, Syrians, Georgians, Crimean Tartars etc.) AND they expected Ukraine to fall even easier than say
Syrian rebels.  In fact Syria would be the bulk of their recent experience, so they may have been pretty confident of whatever they were using.

  And no surprise here:

From CNN's Maija Ehlinger

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned the United States about the potential consequences of transferring weapons to Ukraine, saying convoys with foreign weapons would be "legitimate targets."

Ryabkov made these comments on Saturday on the state-run Channel One, according to Russia's state-owned RIA Novosti news agency.

"We warned the United States that pumping Ukraine with weapons from a number of countries orchestrated by them is not just a dangerous move, but these are actions that turn the corresponding convoys into legitimate targets," he added.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 12, 2022, 12:31:30 PM
"Putin's Excellent Ukrainian Adventure" would be hilarious if the situation wasn't so dire.

Tripoli, who is Michael Kofman?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 12:32:59 PM
hes a pretty decent defense analyst.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 12, 2022, 12:34:26 PM
^Gotcha, searching now
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 12:38:54 PM
while the other maps I linked are a great overview the daily updates from this feed are still the most accurate.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNqdaIIXMAIruWT?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on March 12, 2022, 12:44:33 PM
Quote from: DetCord on March 12, 2022, 12:58:00 AM
Me and some of the boys made the decision to join the UFL and are leaving next week to go fight.

See you cats on the flip side.

Give 'em hell.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 12:51:30 PM
Quote
Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after failed attacks March 8-10. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv. Russian advances from Crimea toward Mykolayiv and Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made no progress in the last 24 hours, and Russian forces in the south face growing morale and supply issues. The Ukrainian General Staff asserted Russia has so far failed to take its territorial objectives for the war and will likely increasingly turn to strikes on civilian targets and psychological operations to undermine civilian support for the Ukrainian government.[1] Uncoordinated and sporadic Russian offensive operations against major Ukrainian cities support the Ukrainian General Staff's assessment that Russian forces face growing morale and supply issues and have lost the initiative. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 11 that Ukrainian forces are "actively defending and conducting successful counterattacks in all directions," but did not state where reported counterattacks are occurring.[2]

The Kremlin likely seeks to increase its combat power by drawing Belarus into the war and leveraging Syrian proxies, in addition to ongoing efforts to directly replace Russian combat losses through individual conscripts that are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate effective new combat power. Putin is reportedly conducting an internal purge of general offers and intelligence personnel and recalibrating Russia's war effort to sustain combat operations far longer than the Kremlin initially planned. Russia likely requires a new wave of combat-effective reservists or recruits in a short period of time to achieve its objectives in Ukraine but is unlikely to be able to generate such a wave. Russian aircraft likely conducted an attempted false-flag attack on Belarusian territory on March 11. The Kremlin is likely pressuring Belarus to enter the war in Ukraine to support Russian forces, though Belarusian President Lukashenko is likely attempting to delay or prevent his entry into the war to avoid costly Western sanctions and Belarusian combat losses. The Kremlin additionally announced plans on March 11 to deploy foreign fighters, including up to 16,000 Syrian fighters, to Ukraine. The Kremlin is highly unlikely to abandon its continuing main effort to encircle and capture Kyiv and will continue to feed replacements and reinforcements into this operation.

Key Takeaways

    Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours and Russian forces conducted another pause to resupply and refit frontline units.

    Russian forces did not secure any new territory in northeastern Ukraine and may be redeploying forces attacking eastern Kyiv to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks in Sumy Oblast.
    Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment.

    Ukrainian forces halted Russian advances north and west from Crimea as Russian forces face growing supply and morale issues.

    Russian aircraft likely conducted an attempted false-flag attack on Belarusian territory on March 11 in an effort to draw Belarus into the war.
    The Kremlin announced plans to deploy foreign fighters, including up to 16,000 Syrian fighters, to Ukraine.

    Putin reportedly fired several generals and arrested FSB intelligence officers in an internal purge.

    Ukrainian forces killed the commander of Russia's 29th Combined Arms Army. High casualties among Russian general officers indicate the poor quality of Russian command and control, requiring Russian generals to deploy forward and risk Ukrainian fire to command their forces.

    Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks.


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11 (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 12:59:23 PM
Wow...I'm now tracking an IL76 that departed the Moscow area and is now off the northern coast of Cyprus heading for Syria. Any guess what it is picking up?  Amazing how you can correlate air movement with headlines in the news.

(https://scontent-lga3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/275563865_10159283369332702_4761973494721556504_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=9kUqpsQzRpkAX_jFfew&tn=L_6LnxnoruAVPMrb&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-2.xx&oh=00_AT8zapVaV_AWcK4WVVoF8y7Uspp-5i8L2Drkm4CkfrqLug&oe=6231797E)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 12, 2022, 01:11:06 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 12, 2022, 11:26:32 AM
I wonder if the Russian army ineptness is really just a ploy to give them an excuse to use the weapons no one wants to talk about.

I wouldn't attribute to malice anything that can be attributed to incompetence.  There's no reason Putin would want to go nuclear if he could accomplish the same things tactically.  Clearly, he badly underestimated the Ukrainians vis a vis his own troops.

For most organizations--and the Russian army is no different--the fish rots from the head.  If the guys at the top don't have competence as their top priority, that will permeate the organization.  The Soviet Union of the 80s toppled because of cronyism, corruption, and incompetence.  It's unclear that Putin's Kleptocracy is any more competent when they're actually put up against a well-armed, well-organized opponent.

If the Russian army is now trying to bring in auxiliaries from Syria and Belarus, that doesn't speak well to any alternatives they might have.  It does sound like the Russians have started to make some progress around Kyiv, but the fog of war obviously presents us from being too certain of anything.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 12, 2022, 01:21:29 PM
I'd be surprised if NATO allies aren't feeding the Ukrainians SIGINT out the wazoo on a realtime basis. 

Couple that with all the EW problems that we know the Russian army is having, and I have to think that it wouldn't be that hard to pinpoint the locations of Russian command posts from time to time.  I would also think that Russian generals wanting an understanding of what's going on would be venturing closer to the front than is normally their wont.

One thing we can probably gather from the Ukrainian War:  Russian military hardware seems to work pretty well.  At least, in the hands of the Ukrainian soldiers. 

If this were a Panzer General scenario, the Russians would be getting their asses kicked for failure to adhere to a time table.  From a geopolitical standpoint, the Russians have almost totally screwed themselves.  But I still suspect that the biggest losers in this whole bloody mess will be the Ukrainian civilians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 12, 2022, 01:27:01 PM
"Russian military hardware seems to work pretty well.  At least, in the hands of the Ukrainian soldiers." - also quotable and hilarious, if it wasn't so serious.

Kyiv is now a fortress. I think the worst of this is yet to come when all of the Ukrainian cities being surrounded are stormed. It is going to be horrible for both sides with terrible casualties.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 12, 2022, 01:31:59 PM
The Russians have little to no rear area security in all areas with the potential exception of the border with Belarus, but drones can still target Russian convoys there.

As Ukrainian territorial forces and bypassed regular forces keep targeting supply convoys and other rear area units on the move, at some point higher ranking officers will be hit. At this point, it's hard to tell if it's good SIGINT/HUMINT work that caused the casualties amongst Russian generals through deliberate, targeted, strikes or the lack of security in the areas the Russians are moving through.

Strange as it might seem, a potential downside to the poor progress the Russians are making might be a massive reorganization/restructuring of the Russian army after the war which makes it much more capable in the next conflict. That potency will hopefully be limited by the effects of sanctions and increased European NATO military spending.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 12, 2022, 01:40:11 PM
Let's look at it from the Russian side.
The Russians have been in the field and in combat for 2 weeks
Have had a range of combat casualties include wounded and captured from 10 to 30%
Don't have any new units or reserves
Have stalled or minimally progressing advances and unless 60 miles from railheads are out of food and gas
High levels of officers corps deaths
Their elite units (VDV parachutists) completely destroyed
Have not achieved air superiority meaning all support units can be targeted anywhere in Ukraine by drones and drone observed artillery
Lost so many of their trucks that they are using civilian vehicles which are a mix of different types and models making their logistics even more difficult to manage
Mud season is here trapping them in roads
Have lost comms and are getting stonked by the Ukrainians

My bet is the army breaks sooner rather than later due to morale issues and the above for the units that are deep in Ukraine and you see units just giving up wholesale.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 01:47:12 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 12, 2022, 01:31:59 PM
At this point, it's hard to tell if it's good SIGINT/HUMINT work that caused the casualties amongst Russian generals through deliberate, targeted, strikes or the lack of security in the areas the Russians are moving through.

Strange as it might seem, a potential downside to the poor progress the Russians are making might be a massive reorganization/restructuring of the Russian army after the war which makes it much more capable in the next conflict. That potency will hopefully be limited by the effects of sanctions and increased European NATO military spending.

its not hard to tell at all as the information is plain as day if you know how to sift through various outlets and mine the information.
a complete lack of secure comms and static hq get your officers dead.
I also wouldnt worry about a reorganized russian army for a very long time.  they couldnt afford their own new equipment before the sanctions and they sure as shit wont be able to afford it for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 01:57:29 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 01:47:12 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 12, 2022, 01:31:59 PM
At this point, it's hard to tell if it's good SIGINT/HUMINT work that caused the casualties amongst Russian generals through deliberate, targeted, strikes or the lack of security in the areas the Russians are moving through.

Strange as it might seem, a potential downside to the poor progress the Russians are making might be a massive reorganization/restructuring of the Russian army after the war which makes it much more capable in the next conflict. That potency will hopefully be limited by the effects of sanctions and increased European NATO military spending.

its not hard to tell at all as the information is plain as day if you know how to sift through various outlets and mine the information.
a complete lack of secure comms and static hq get your officers dead.
I also wouldnt worry about a reorganized russian army for a very long time.  they couldnt afford their own new equipment before the sanctions and they sure as shit wont be able to afford it for the foreseeable future.

Actually the high casualties among field grade and general officers has been attributed to poor C&C causing them to lead from the front thereby exposing themselves to greater personal risk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 12, 2022, 02:00:38 PM
Have all of Russia's elite units in Ukraine actually been totally destroyed?

From the reading I have done in the last few weeks to try and understand the Russian point of view (Lenin's Tomb by David Remnick and Fire Bird by Andrei Kozyrev with more to come) I have learned more about the sheer amount of death that has blighted Russia and the rest of Eastern Europe for the last 100+ years, even when there was no war actually going on.

For me and I would guess for most of the West, the numbers are just unfathomable.

In the East, the last 2.5 weeks have unfortunately been just the tiniest drop in the bucket of the last 100 years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 12, 2022, 03:03:55 PM
So this is shaping-up to be a new 1940 Finnish War sort of thing. I wonder who will be the new Hitler and now believe the Russkies are push-overs?  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 03:07:12 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 12, 2022, 02:00:38 PM
Have all of Russia's elite units in Ukraine actually been totally destroyed?

I think what is considered elite needs to be reevaluated where the russian military is concerned.
backflips off a trampoline while throwing hatches at a target on fire just doesnt cut it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 03:08:36 PM
this one is for JH to pop wood over.
Ill let him tell you what the guns are.
Ukrainian SOF captured a Russian Eleron-3 UAV.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNrLPd3XIAcjcKb?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 12, 2022, 03:12:33 PM
Though the exact nature of the intelligence provided by NATO and EU militaries is unclear, what is clear is that a lot of military intelligence efforts in Europe are focussed on providing the Ukrainians with intelligence.

Though the articles about poor Russian comms are convincing, I'm sceptical as to whether they're not also being used as cover for actions that were only possible due to NATO military intelligence.

It's also tempting to simplify logistics issues as being due to "mud", but this is not the Ukraine of the early 1940's. There are all-weather roads on every axis of the Russian advance.

Quotebackflips off a trampoline while throwing hatches at a target on fire just doesnt cut it.

That's a blast from the past, or a throwback to days of yore (https://media.moddb.com/images/members/1/320/319212/spetsnaz.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 12, 2022, 03:17:06 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 12, 2022, 02:00:38 PM
Have all of Russia's elite units in Ukraine actually been totally destroyed?


I doubt all of them have been, but it does look like they had pretty extreme losses among their VDV forces in the first few days.   

One of their problems has been that even their elite units were equipped with many times substandard or second line equipment.  One thing that's been pointed out is how many military vehicles have been seen equipped with cheap civilian tires.   Their wheeled vehicles were simply breaking down and getting stuck in the thaw. 

You can have the best trained guy in the world but if he doesn't have food, proper clothing and ammo not a lot he can do to be an effective fighting man. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 12, 2022, 03:28:27 PM
Relatedly, you can have the most elite airborne rangers in the world, but if their army doesn't catch up to them soon enough after taking the airport, they run out of supplies and then it's Rambo time (where that equals hiding in filthy swamps trying to get home).

Of course the point to taking the airports was to fly in the rest of the airmobile troops. So the Uks score big for stopping that from happening! -- but part of the breakdown has to be on the Russians: what's not only minimally necessary but sufficiently beyond minimally necessary to take and secure an airport long enough for your big heavies to safely arrive and pour out the troops? (Much less what you do with those troops once they arrive.)

On the other hand, if Russia didn't secure air supremacy as well as anti-anti-air supremacy (so to speak), then those big heavies would not be arriving much anyway. "Blue sky" doesn't only mean a lack of interceptors, it means a lack of flak, too. And when you send elite paratroops into a situation where you don't have a blue sky afterward (assuming you get basically one surprise drop before the sky lights up against more drops), then only the advancing thrusts can save them eventually.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 03:29:54 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 12, 2022, 03:17:06 PM

You can have the best trained guy in the world but if he doesn't have food, proper clothing and ammo not a lot he can do to be an effective fighting man.

Tell that to the Marines.

(https://wordhistories.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/huns-kill-women-andchildren-tell-that-to-the-marines-first-world-war-us-recruiting-poster-by-james-montgomery-flagg.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 12, 2022, 03:30:29 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 12, 2022, 03:17:06 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 12, 2022, 02:00:38 PM
Have all of Russia's elite units in Ukraine actually been totally destroyed?


...

You can have the best trained guy in the world but if he doesn't have food, proper clothing and ammo not a lot he can do to be an effective fighting man.

It also doesn't help when you load them up in transport aircraft and send them in contested airspace to get shot down.  All that backflipping hatchet throwing isn't any use against a SAM.  Similarly, seizing airfields/strategic locations deep in the enemy rear without rapid reinforcement is going to get you killed, no matter how good you are.  I think the fundamental problem was at the planning stage  of this operation, begining with the initial assumptions.  These basic failures have only been magnified by other deficiencies, such as training, logistics, leadership, communications, etc....  This Shambolic example of a Charlie Foxtrot of an operation will be studied for generations in war colleges as how not to do planning.

{Edit: and the epic failure didn't start with the military planning.  I think that Russia in general and Putin in particular are going to get a good, hard lesson in what Sun Tzu (actually it was Ts`ao Kung) meant when he  said to "count the cost" before going to war)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 12, 2022, 03:33:02 PM
Meanwhile, Bill Whittle studies Putin's past career for clues on what to expect strategically going forward:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 12, 2022, 03:57:20 PM
I'm going to guess that JH's work address is 24 E. 23rd St in Manhattan.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 04:05:50 PM
Quote from: ComradeP on March 12, 2022, 03:12:33 PM
It's also tempting to simplify logistics issues as being due to "mud", but this is not the Ukraine of the early 1940's. There are all-weather roads on every axis of the Russian advance.

there are roads and there are Roads.  not many roads can take the sustained use of modern military equipment.  this isnt West Europe or the US.
and then theres the problem of the Ukrainians having flooded the territory to the north of Kiev.  then add in typical weather in the region.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 12, 2022, 04:07:30 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2022, 03:29:54 PM

Tell that to the Marines.


Well, to the Marines being surrounded just simplifies the problem.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 04:07:45 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 12, 2022, 03:17:06 PM
You can have the best trained guy in the world but if he doesn't have food, proper clothing and ammo not a lot he can do to be an effective fighting man.

Chosin?  Bastogne?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 12, 2022, 04:52:05 PM
Quotethere are roads and there are Roads.  not many roads can take the sustained use of modern military equipment.  this isnt West Europe or the US.
and then theres the problem of the Ukrainians having flooded the territory to the north of Kiev.  then add in typical weather in the region.

A highway doesn't suddenly turn into a muddy field, but I guess some roads might indeed get torn up. The volume of traffic might not be enough for that.

As to flooding north of Kiev: have you seen any other images or articles about that other than the one you posted earlier? That was a picture showing the Dnieper river and an area directly adjacent to it, which on satellite images seems "naturally" swampy during spring thaw.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 04:58:30 PM
it doesnt turn into a muddy field but it does get broken up and very bumpy pretty quick.  it really depends on the way the road was built.  Ive seen a pretty well constructed asphalt road crumble in the space of a week because of heavy dump truck traffic.  a modern military is a lot heavier then that with a lot more vehicles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 05:01:29 PM
as to your second point, googling more info is hampered by Ukrainian flooding, Kiev flooding, military flooding.  they all give back natural disaster articles.
it was reported but news has maybe moved on? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 12, 2022, 05:22:39 PM
First military equipment is hell on roads. Tracked vehicles are particularly bad.
Second there is a good article I was reading on how the roads under the vehicles that have been burned out are essentially destroyed from the bitumen diesel and heat from burning fires.
Lastly unlike NA/EU there are still much fewer roads leading to fewer options to advance along.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 12, 2022, 05:24:44 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 12, 2022, 02:00:38 PM
Have all of Russia's elite units in Ukraine actually been totally destroyed?

My guess is that he is holding back the best troops, and his latest toys (aircraft and armored vehicles) in case he has to fight NATO somewhere.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 12, 2022, 05:32:43 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 04:58:30 PM
it doesnt turn into a muddy field but it does get broken up and very bumpy pretty quick.  it really depends on the way the road was built.  Ive seen a pretty well constructed asphalt road crumble in the space of a week because of heavy dump truck traffic.  a modern military is a lot heavier then that with a lot more vehicles.

and

QuoteFirst military equipment is hell on roads. Tracked vehicles are particularly bad.
Second there is a good article I was reading on how the roads under the vehicles that have been burned out are essentially destroyed from the bitumen diesel and heat from burning fires.
Lastly unlike NA/EU there are still much fewer roads leading to fewer options to advance along.

I know tracked vehicles are not exactly good for roads, I'm just wondering if the volume of traffic is enough to damage roads to the extent that they disappear in the current Ukrainian mild frost/thaw conditions. Depending on how many units advance along a road, you would have a few dozen tanks and IFV's moving along a specific section of road once. Most of the support vehicles would be wheeled.

During NATO "paper" mobilization trainings in Western Europe, the main limits to road movement were deemed to be bridges and viaducts/overpasses (which is one of the reasons why the conclusion was that the Cold War infrastructure was gone: it was very difficult to plan movement of AFV's), but there are more high quality highways in this part of Europe than in Ukraine.

Incidentally, a big loaded dump truck would be considerably heavier than a BMP.

The ground conditions complicate off-road movement in case of drone/air strikes or artillery fire, which is why we see primarily trucks stuck yards from the nearest road, but I have yet to see footage of asphalted roads pulverized to the extent that they're no longer usable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 12, 2022, 05:38:34 PM
Quote from: Con on March 12, 2022, 05:22:39 PM
First military equipment is hell on roads. Tracked vehicles are particularly bad.
Second there is a good article I was reading on how the roads under the vehicles that have been burned out are essentially destroyed from the bitumen diesel and heat from burning fires.
Lastly unlike NA/EU there are still much fewer roads leading to fewer options to advance along.

Absolutely... tracked vehicles can quickly chop up asphalt.

The main roads into Kyiv aren't always that great. Thanks to Google street view, we can all see for ourselves.  Below is a typical "main route" into Kyiv from the north.

https://www.google.com/maps/@50.7032626,30.3708121,3a,75y,284.81h,83.72t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sMhRgEMVMuedjUA7PF9fiEA!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DMhRgEMVMuedjUA7PF9fiEA%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D194.69276%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 (https://www.google.com/maps/@50.7032626,30.3708121,3a,75y,284.81h,83.72t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sMhRgEMVMuedjUA7PF9fiEA!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DMhRgEMVMuedjUA7PF9fiEA%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D194.69276%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656)

But some are OK:

https://www.google.com/maps/@50.8193369,31.0210176,3a,75y,231.22h,82.6t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sigHhVOVLeZ7nY0RJqPxrZw!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DigHhVOVLeZ7nY0RJqPxrZw%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D116.02534%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 (https://www.google.com/maps/@50.8193369,31.0210176,3a,75y,231.22h,82.6t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sigHhVOVLeZ7nY0RJqPxrZw!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DigHhVOVLeZ7nY0RJqPxrZw%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D116.02534%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 05:54:20 PM
QuoteIncidentally, a big loaded dump truck would be considerably heavier than a BMP.

its not the singular vehicle, its hundreds if not thousands of them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 05:56:21 PM
as a side track, I feel like Ive read out all the books for the eras that I like reading about.
this war is going to be a gold mine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 12, 2022, 06:00:45 PM
^I felt guilty for thinking the same thing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 06:07:22 PM
Ive seen a lot of photos like this and cant help but visualize the inter-German border in 1987
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNrnh9VWYAM4fiN?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 12, 2022, 06:09:48 PM
I tried to find some footage or photos showing the same road at various points since the invasion, but couldn't find any. No way for me to prove or disprove that (sections of) major roads are already seriously degraded.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 06:14:57 PM
oh there are twitter feeds that seem to use black magic to geo-locate events.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 12, 2022, 06:31:51 PM
I know, but I haven't been able to find footage of the same road section every, say, 2-3 days since the invasion.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2022, 08:26:51 PM
live feeds pushes things 2 days ago into the abyss.
my old ass has pretty damn good google-fu and its fucking hard to keep up.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 12, 2022, 09:59:01 PM
QuoteVideo of a Russian column ambushed at the exact spot where you fight CMBS "Shield of Kiev" Campaign Mission 1

It is at the northern end of the map. And just up the road is where you fight the second mission.

https://www.google.com/maps/@50.6150624,30.8613714,3a,75y,333.42h,99.38t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sAF1QipPYqX5miNjEJOA0OPP88iImGUXDHx2qLsiPv5R\_!2e10!3e11!7i5120!8i2560

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatMission/comments/tcd2fg/video_of_a_russian_column_ambushed_at_the_exact/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Rekim on March 13, 2022, 07:44:08 AM
(https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D22AQFptdtPVvw0nA/feedshare-shrink_800/0/1646427909976?e=1649894400&v=beta&t=C2VZsAVRmhlnFiVTZd0C3kg0UhPPS_fwMJP49YbcASc)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2022, 08:15:48 AM
a great thread on the logistic problems the soviets are having

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1502732464980172802
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 13, 2022, 08:36:38 AM
Indeed, some good maps there showing Russian supply limitations.

-

The Russians had been rotating "volunteers" in the separatist regions since 2014 just like the Ukrainians have been rotating army units to give them some combat experience. The Russians seem to be unable to put that experience to good use, maybe because the volunteers were not sent across the border as organized units.

On the other hand, the experience has made the Ukrainian army a formidable opponent, whilst many Western experts expected it to perform only slightly better than the third rate force it was in 2014.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2022, 09:16:56 AM
the maps arent the important part of the thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 13, 2022, 12:17:34 PM
Very interesting Rekim.  Thanks for sharing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 13, 2022, 12:48:56 PM
So another question
Russia defaults
Ruble becomes worthless.  Economy contracts massive unemployment etc etc for the next 5+ years
How does Russia maintain control of Crimea and separatists regions with a shattered economy?  Can't replace military equipment. Pay soldiers mercenaries. Put money into Crimea
If this was Distant worlds a rebuilt Ukrainian economy would readsorb them due to influence and wealth.

Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2022, 01:23:22 PM
chinese investment
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 13, 2022, 01:39:48 PM
Quote from: Con on March 13, 2022, 12:48:56 PM
So another question
Russia defaults
Ruble becomes worthless.  Economy contracts massive unemployment etc etc for the next 5+ years
How does Russia maintain control of Crimea and separatists regions with a shattered economy?  Can't replace military equipment. Pay soldiers mercenaries. Put money into Crimea
If this was Distant worlds a rebuilt Ukrainian economy would readsorb them due to influence and wealth.

Con

Russia moves closer to China.  From the Black Lord himself:  https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-in-ukraine-the-stakes-could-not-be-higher-for-the-west
Conrad Black argues that a negotiated settlement would result in Russia moving away from China.  For the record, I will state that I don't agree with his opinion of the benefits of such a settlement.  He doesn't make it clear (for a national readership) that no matter what the outcome, Russia is a long time from any rapprochement.  However, I will use his historical acumen to support an argument that a crippled Russia falls under Chinese influence.

QuoteBelarus is in hand, and the retrieval of the Russian-speaking provinces of Ukraine would restore almost 15 per cent of that state to Russia, which would increase Russia's population and its perceived strength.
Such an outcome as this would also lead quite quickly to Russian disillusionment with the status of being a junior partner of China, a country that is notoriously overbearing and either subordinates or constantly skirmishes with neighbours whom it judges insufficiently deferential. After the relaxation of its artificial dalliance with Beijing, Russia could revert to its traditional struggle between the nativist and western emulative factions of its society. The West would then be free to pursue constructively a gradually closer relationship with Russia, with whom the West would no longer have any serious disagreements.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 13, 2022, 01:49:47 PM
Good analysis by Ward.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 13, 2022, 01:57:35 PM
Stray Russian? Ukrainian? drone crashes/explodes in Croatia (https://www.foxnews.com/world/stray-drone-ukrainian-war-crashes-croatia-carrying-bomb)

Iranian missiles and stray drones...not a good day  :(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 13, 2022, 04:39:02 PM
Lost for words.
From https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60717902
QuoteRussia is asking China for both military and economic assistance, according to reports in the Financial Times and New York Times newspapers.

Moscow wants Beijing to provide military supplies to use in Ukraine, the FT says.

Citing unnamed US officials, the FT reported that Russia had been requesting Chinese equipment since the start of the invasion. The officials declined to specify what kind of equipment Russia is seeking.

The report added that there were indications that China may be preparing to help.

A separate report in the New York Times - again citing US officials - alleges Russia is also asking for economic assistance to mitigate the impact of sanctions.

China has so far sought to portray itself as neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has not condemned the invasion.

On Monday US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to hold talks with a top Chinese foreign policy official, Yang Jiechi, in Rome.

Speaking to NBC on Sunday, Sullivan said the US would "ensure that China nor anyone else" can compensate Russia for its economic losses.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 13, 2022, 06:01:25 PM
^Very not good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2022, 06:18:16 PM
look at the silver lining.  soon Ukrainians will be capturing chinese shit that we can then pick apart and figure out countermeasures for.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 13, 2022, 06:23:20 PM
Some footage from the Russian side, at the very beginning of this, 2.5 weeks ago.

Russian airborne troops capturing an airport - Russian KU52 helicopters can be seen backing them up along with a possible Russian MiG-29:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 13, 2022, 06:36:22 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2022, 06:18:16 PM
look at the silver lining.  soon Ukrainians will be capturing chinese shit that we can then pick apart and figure out countermeasures for.
That part is fantastic.  I imagine they'll be getting 122mm and 152mm shells and whatever aerial and rocket munitions that are compatible though.

Hopefully, the West will be able to dissuade China but don't know the legalities.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2022, 06:44:58 PM
@ Gus:  I saw that video yesterday and was laughing at the camo by adidas.
wtf is with russians and track suits.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 13, 2022, 06:55:35 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 13, 2022, 06:23:20 PM
Some footage from the Russian side, at the very beginning of this, 2.5 weeks ago.

Russian airborne troops capturing an airport - Russian KU52 helicopters can be seen backing them up along with a possible Russian MiG-29:


At the 50s mark one of the Russians moves directly in front of a rifleman whereas he could go over or behind.  This is surprising as it is dangerous and masks fire.  I encourage them to keep doing it though.  Any other indications of poor tactics?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2022, 07:09:40 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 13, 2022, 06:55:35 PM
  Any other indications of poor tactics?

a shorter answer is if anyone can list indications of good tactics.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on March 13, 2022, 07:38:09 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2022, 06:44:58 PM
@ Gus:  I saw that video yesterday and was laughing at the camo by adidas.
wtf is with russians and track suits.

https://grey-shop.ru/Camouflage/Russian-Combat-Uniform/MordorTac-Gop-Tac-Suit (https://grey-shop.ru/Camouflage/Russian-Combat-Uniform/MordorTac-Gop-Tac-Suit)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 13, 2022, 07:59:20 PM
^That is surreal and hilarious Carl...

I didn't notice the Adidas until you pointed it out Star - but it jibes with every Russian immigrant gangster wannabe I grew up with, to a 'T.'

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 14, 2022, 02:12:37 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2022, 07:09:40 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 13, 2022, 06:55:35 PM
  Any other indications of poor tactics?

a shorter answer is if anyone can list indications of good tactics.
Succinct.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 14, 2022, 03:22:42 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2022, 07:09:40 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 13, 2022, 06:55:35 PM
  Any other indications of poor tactics?

a shorter answer is if anyone can list indications of good tactics.

If their plan was to load a savegame from roughly Feb. 23, I think they did an excellent job of ruining their campaign for shits and giggles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 14, 2022, 08:37:00 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 14, 2022, 02:12:37 AM

Succinct.

  CNN says people are escaping from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia.  I thought the Russians had taken Zaporizhzhia.  I'm so confused.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 14, 2022, 09:05:16 AM
Another good video showcasing Ukrainian tactics and equipment. I really like their indigenous bullpup rifle, the "Malyuk". When I first saw it, I thought it was an Israeli Tavor.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 14, 2022, 09:13:10 AM
'We are lucky that they are so f##king stupid' hahaha
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 14, 2022, 10:03:35 AM
Ramzan Kadyrov, Putin's Chechen pit bull, surfaces in Ukraine (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/ramzan-kadyrov-putins-chechen-pit-bull-surfaces-in-ukraine).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2022, 10:11:05 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 14, 2022, 08:37:00 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 14, 2022, 02:12:37 AM

Succinct.

  CNN says people are escaping from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia.  I thought the Russians had taken Zaporizhzhia.  I'm so confused.

the nuclear plant is on the south side of the waterway and the city is in the north
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2022, 10:17:15 AM
more logistic info

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1503127727557259265
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 14, 2022, 10:25:48 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2022, 10:11:05 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 14, 2022, 08:37:00 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 14, 2022, 02:12:37 AM

Succinct.

  CNN says people are escaping from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia.  I thought the Russians had taken Zaporizhzhia.  I'm so confused.

the nuclear plant is on the south side of the waterway and the city is in the north

  So for one reason or another, the Russians seem to be letting these people out of Mariupol.  Also apparently a "missile" hit some pro-Russian town in Lopotinsheko or Dolponiskaya (the "Break-away Republics") and the Russians say it was a "War crime" though no body knows where the missile came from or what it was etc. etc.  It seems unlikely that the Ukrainians would waste a missile
on Lopotinsheko or Dolponiskaya and if the Russians actually bothered to actually shoot a missile into Lopotinsheko or Dolponiskaya that would also be surprising so I'm guessing no missile actually
was involved (maybe somebody's AA missile, maybe?  Nope, not even that.  Just some possible Tochka-U parts maybe? )

   I found a crummy video about his incident and it showed some gently smoking (but intact nose cone) "missile parts" in the middle of a street.  The pavement wasn't penetrated and there were
a dozen people taking pictures and videos and no sign of the 20 people killed at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 14, 2022, 11:15:51 AM
This is what you call, "lighting them up..."

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 14, 2022, 11:22:10 AM
^Jesus...the last few shots 'just to be sure.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 14, 2022, 11:30:00 AM
This guy has a really interesting take on Russia and Putin.
Long twitter threads that are worth a read
Basically advocating for a win and not be a postponement of Putins goals we need to end this now.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503114940315537412?s=21

And how Russia promotes internally and externally the nazi theory
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503085486604275717?s=21
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 14, 2022, 11:34:39 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 14, 2022, 11:22:10 AM
^Jesus...the last few shots 'just to be sure.'

Yeah...they aren't playing wiffle ball.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2022, 12:20:48 PM
theres some interesting bits about warcrimes in the logistics bit I posted above.
also worth noting is that neither the US or russia signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions nor are fuel air explosives banned for use againts military targets.
where it gets very murky very quickly is the Ukrainians chosen battlespace, urban areas.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 14, 2022, 01:06:09 PM
^I can see the murk overflowing with the 'battlespace' ideas.

Like Ukraine is the 'home team' or something and so they invited the Russians to play in their cities.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Toonces on March 14, 2022, 02:59:13 PM
Jarhead, is it possible to acquire one of those rifles as an enthusiast? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 14, 2022, 03:01:52 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 14, 2022, 11:15:51 AM
This is what you call, "lighting them up..."



You can see the legs of Russian troops standing behind the vehicle just before the armored vehicle opens up on them.  Those dudes are definitely dead.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 14, 2022, 03:14:23 PM
Quote from: Toonces on March 14, 2022, 02:59:13 PM
Jarhead, is it possible to acquire one of those rifles as an enthusiast?

If they make them for the civilian market (ie. without select fire capability).  I know IWI makes a civilian model of the Tavor. My brother has one. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 14, 2022, 03:26:20 PM
The legs of the troops behind the vehicle are visible in the thumbnail image too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on March 14, 2022, 04:05:27 PM
Why do I get a feeling the giant Z on the Russian armor just makes a convenient bullseye?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 14, 2022, 04:09:22 PM
Quote from: jamus34 on March 14, 2022, 04:05:27 PM
Why do I get a feeling the giant Z on the Russian armor just makes a convenient bullseye?

"World War Z" of course.   ;)  Without Brad Pitt...at least so far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXkfru7p5B8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXkfru7p5B8)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 14, 2022, 07:35:43 PM
Ukraine will have to make due with Sean Penn for now - he's filming a documentary over there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 14, 2022, 07:43:37 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 14, 2022, 07:35:43 PM
Ukraine will have to make due with Sean Penn for now - he's filming a documentary over there.

Not anymore...I heard he fled into Poland.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 14, 2022, 09:00:15 PM
Oh :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 14, 2022, 09:53:54 PM
Maybe Baldwin going over to film a movie would scare the Russians back across the border?  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 14, 2022, 10:28:35 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 14, 2022, 09:53:54 PM
Maybe Baldwin going over to film a movie would scare the Russians back across the border?  :hide:

  I'd be nervous about shooting a movie with him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on March 15, 2022, 05:20:57 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 14, 2022, 07:35:43 PM
Ukraine will have to make due with Sean Penn for now - he's filming a documentary over there.
Yeah, i think it was at the beginning of the invasion. As JH said, he's not there anymore.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Destraex on March 15, 2022, 05:27:28 AM
An australian "independent" government tv channel perspective on sources.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
There is so much combat aviation power over Western Europe right now. I truly wish nuclear weapons did not exist or were not part of the equation. In a conventional war, it is so blatantly clear that Russia would get obliterated. It's very frustrating that they have the nuke card.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 15, 2022, 09:50:31 AM
I was reading, "Stalin's War On Japan" by Charles Stephenson last night. At the end of the war in Europe in 1945, the Russians didn't tell their soldiers they were being put on trains to go Manchuria to fight the Japanese. They thought they were going home...until the trains kept going and going and going east. So, what's old is new in Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 15, 2022, 09:52:20 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
There is so much combat aviation power over Western Europe right now. I truly wish nuclear weapons did not exist or were not part of the equation. In a conventional war, it is so blatantly clear that Russia would get obliterated. It's very frustrating that they have the nuke card.
That card helped save the west during the cold war(at least part of it anyway).  Soviets could have rolled over Europe back then if it were not for our nukes. Difference now is Russia is using it as the aggressor.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:56:11 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 15, 2022, 09:52:20 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
There is so much combat aviation power over Western Europe right now. I truly wish nuclear weapons did not exist or were not part of the equation. In a conventional war, it is so blatantly clear that Russia would get obliterated. It's very frustrating that they have the nuke card.
That card helped save the west during the cold war(at least part of it anyway).  Soviets could have rolled over Europe back then if it were not for our nukes. Difference now is Russia is using it as the aggressor.

True...I guess it is a double-edged sword.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on March 15, 2022, 10:07:20 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 15, 2022, 09:52:20 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
There is so much combat aviation power over Western Europe right now. I truly wish nuclear weapons did not exist or were not part of the equation. In a conventional war, it is so blatantly clear that Russia would get obliterated. It's very frustrating that they have the nuke card.
That card helped save the west during the cold war(at least part of it anyway).  Soviets could have rolled over Europe back then if it were not for our nukes. Difference now is Russia is using it as the aggressor.
The Soviets had a lot of support from the USA and Allies if i recall right. Don't think they would have been able to win a war against the US back then either.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 15, 2022, 10:17:27 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
There is so much combat aviation power over Western Europe right now.

and it will grow , Germany will order 35 F35 and 12 aditional Eurofighter  (to replace/upholster the old Tornado fleet)    ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 11:30:52 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 15, 2022, 09:52:20 AM
That card helped save the west during the cold war(at least part of it anyway).  Soviets could have rolled over Europe back then if it were not for our nukes. Difference now is Russia is using it as the aggressor.

Im not convinced this was true then at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 15, 2022, 11:34:45 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
It's very frustrating that they have the nuke card.

With a lot of money and effort we may render the nuke-card non-effective.

If we ressurect Reagan's SDI project, but in a modern 2.0 version, without those x-ray space lasers.
A lot of things scientists in 80ties could only dream of are now lying on the shelf in the next Apple store, or have been mounted on self driving consumer cars.
40 years is alot of time in science and engineering!   

I thought of a dense air defence network with several layers with to-be-enhanced versions of IronDome, THAAD, and such
And additional systems to detect and counter hypersonic vehicles in the air and those ultra-fast long-range submerged "torpedo"

So the only remaining way for a rogue nation to nuke a city would be to smuggle the warhead into a harbor on a freighter or hike it in over the border in a backpack. It would be the task of the agencies to see that coming and prevent it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 11:34:51 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
There is so much combat aviation power over Western Europe right now.

I cant see the dedicated combat aircraft that are up but I can see at least 6 aerial refueling planes up right now at 12:30 est.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 11:44:02 AM
Quote from: MikeGER on March 15, 2022, 11:34:45 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
It's very frustrating that they have the nuke card.

With a lot of money and effort we may render the nuke-card non-effective.

If we ressurect Reagan's SDI project, but in a modern 2.0 version, without those x-ray space lasers.
A lot of things scientists in 80ties could only dream of are now lying on the shelf in the next Apple store, or have been mounted on self driving consumer cars.
40 years is alot of time in science and engineering!   

for the Air Force:
for the AC-130
https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/air-force-takes-delivery-of-stealthy-laser-weapon-for-ghostrider-gunships/
for fighters
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41814/lasers-destined-for-fighter-jets-are-now-being-tested-in-the-air-forces-wind-tunnels

for the Navy:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/laser-weapons-are-future-us-navy-197480

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-navy-laser-weapon-test-gulf-of-aden-images/

strategic systems are probably a lot further along then the Pentagon wants to talk about.





Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 15, 2022, 12:16:23 PM
Ukrainian telecom technicians have been braving horrendous conditions and cyber-attacks to keep the internet up. Forbes article.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/bombs-and-hackers-are-battering-ukraine-s-internet-providers-hidden-heroes-risk-their-lives-to-keep-their-country-online/ar-AAV5M8g?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/bombs-and-hackers-are-battering-ukraine-s-internet-providers-hidden-heroes-risk-their-lives-to-keep-their-country-online/ar-AAV5M8g?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 12:17:46 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 11:34:51 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
There is so much combat aviation power over Western Europe right now.

I cant see the dedicated combat aircraft that are up but I can see at least 6 aerial refueling planes up right now at 12:30 est.

Earlier today i saw F-15s and Eurofighters out of the UK, F-18s out of Switzerland, F-16s over Belgium and Apaches loitering in Germany.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 15, 2022, 12:37:25 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
There is so much combat aviation power over Western Europe right now. I truly wish nuclear weapons did not exist or were not part of the equation. In a conventional war, it is so blatantly clear that Russia would get obliterated. It's very frustrating that they have the nuke card.

Been saying the same thing.  I remember when combat mission Black Sea was being developed, I got into a debate in the bfc forums with Russian players about who is better.  They claimed desert storm was only 1 sided because of the iraqis, but I'm thinking the 1991 Iraqis would do better in 2022 Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 15, 2022, 12:56:31 PM
Quote from: Anguille on March 15, 2022, 10:07:20 AM
The Soviets had a lot of support from the USA and Allies if i recall right. Don't think they would have been able to win a war against the US back then either.

I think that really depended on the era.

If the war had been in the 60's or early 70's I think NATO would've been in a real bad situation.  There was a lot more technological parity and the Soviet Army had massive numerical superiority.   The air war wouldn't have been a walkover either. 

After the post-Vietnam reforms and the widening quality gap in the latter 70's and into the 80's, I'd agree.   Based on what we've seen in the performance of Russian equipment vs. modern western weapons systems I don't think they'd have stood a chance.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 15, 2022, 01:05:11 PM
Don't forget about the Walker spy ring that operated from 1967-1985.  The Soviets were able to read all encrypted US naval messages.  It would have cost NATO the war, both at sea and then on land with no shipping reaching Europe.
Fortunately, counter-intelligence services seem to be catching a lot of spies today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 15, 2022, 01:06:45 PM
I was looking for some links to interactive maps and resources that keep popping up on this thread.  Found them after scrolling through a bunch of old posts.

Maybe time for a sticky on the Current Events heading with frequently used resources like:

https://liveuamap.com/ (https://liveuamap.com/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 15, 2022, 01:35:24 PM
Quote from: MikeGER on March 15, 2022, 11:34:45 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 09:23:28 AM
It's very frustrating that they have the nuke card.

With a lot of money and effort we may render the nuke-card non-effective.

Only one needs to get through.

Does anybody know what happens with the nuclear material when you destroy a warhead in the air.  Don't you get radioactive material on the ground below ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 03:56:22 PM
yes but, Id rather have a contaminated area then a nuked city.  and if you get them in the boost or orbital phase that the material hopefully burns up on reentry.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 04:20:30 PM
todays satisfying explosion:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1503745296932773897
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 15, 2022, 04:22:47 PM
Brandon Hererra takes a good look at some of the guns used in the conflict.  Some poor SOBs are being issued Mosins.   :uglystupid2:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 04:28:31 PM
^Does Hererra have any military experience or is he just an AK fanboi turned youtuber turned gun manufacturer?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 15, 2022, 04:32:18 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2022, 04:28:31 PM
^Does Hererra have any military experience or is he just an AK fanboi turned youtuber turned gun manufacturer?

Pretty sure it's the latter but I'm not certain.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 15, 2022, 06:28:37 PM
I wonder if the IRS would be as generous

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-tax-office-captured-russian-tanks-not-personal-taxable-income-2022-3?IR=T&r=US&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=yahoo.com
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 15, 2022, 07:03:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 03:56:22 PM
yes but, Id rather have a contaminated area then a nuked city.  and if you get them in the boost or orbital phase that the material hopefully burns up on reentry.
You realize that doesn't destroy the radioactive material, it just puts it into the atmosphere.  Not sure how long it stays as a gas but may just precipitates out onto the ground over a wider area.

edit: and to my earlier comment on Soviet superiority, I was thinking more of 70's and early 80's. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 15, 2022, 07:51:59 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 15, 2022, 07:03:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 03:56:22 PM
yes but, Id rather have a contaminated area then a nuked city.  and if you get them in the boost or orbital phase that the material hopefully burns up on reentry.
You realize that doesn't destroy the radioactive material, it just puts it into the atmosphere.  Not sure how long it stays as a gas but may just precipitates out onto the ground over a wider area.

edit: and to my earlier comment on Soviet superiority, I was thinking more of 70's and early 80's.

  Assuming the bomb doesn't go through its fission-fusion events, the bomb material is not nearly as radioactive as the fission-fusion products, which of course have much much shorter half-lives than the
bomb materials.  So assuming you somehow break up the weapon without having it do its fission-fusion thing, you're going to get much less radioactive material falling on you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 15, 2022, 07:58:15 PM
Sobering editorial here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/opinion/russia-ukraine-world-war-iii.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 15, 2022, 07:58:22 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 15, 2022, 07:51:59 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 15, 2022, 07:03:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 03:56:22 PM
yes but, Id rather have a contaminated area then a nuked city.  and if you get them in the boost or orbital phase that the material hopefully burns up on reentry.
You realize that doesn't destroy the radioactive material, it just puts it into the atmosphere.  Not sure how long it stays as a gas but may just precipitates out onto the ground over a wider area.

edit: and to my earlier comment on Soviet superiority, I was thinking more of 70's and early 80's.

  Assuming the bomb doesn't go through its fission-fusion events, the bomb material is not nearly as radioactive as the fission-fusion products, which of course have much much shorter half-lives than the
bomb materials.  So assuming you somehow break up the weapon without having it do its fission-fusion thing, you're going to get much less radioactive material falling on you.
Thanks for the clarification, I hadn't thought about that part.  If the interception disrupts the explosive element of the reaction, there will definately be less of an explosion although probably more spreading of the radioactive debris.  However, most of the radiation on a ground burst is from the interaction with the ground during the burst, so either way the interception goes (with or without a fission/fusion event) there will be much less radioactive debris to be spread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 08:11:29 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 15, 2022, 07:58:15 PM
Sobering editorial here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/opinion/russia-ukraine-world-war-iii.html

paywall  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 15, 2022, 08:24:36 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 15, 2022, 07:58:15 PM
Sobering editorial here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/opinion/russia-ukraine-world-war-iii.html

  I don't know.  I find arguments that use the Nazi's (or more exactly the German Army) three weeks to overrun Poland somewhat unconvincing.  After all the Allies had already declared war and if they had
been totally ready to attack while the Germans were driving around Poland, it would have been curtains for the Third Reich.  I think we are in a much different world where analogies to WWII are not much
help.  For example, Putin's mental problem is not "Should I shoot some nukes and scare the West so I can win?" but "What am I trying to do exactly?"  Obviously, he can blow up the world if that is his aim, but is that a thing he wants to do?  Probably not.  So what is the thing he wants to do?  The aim is a demilitarized Ukraine and that seems to exclude any kind of guarantees for Ukraine, that he won't just attack them again, so he can't have that.  They could do everything he wants and he could just attack them again next time things are very muddy.  Shooting nukes to scare people isn't going to help and
where does he go if he scares people?  He's back at square one: his aim is a demilitarized Ukraine, but what's to stop him from just repeating his current actions?  Well nothing so he can't have a demiliarized Ukraine unless he stops scaring people and allows for some kind of defensive guarantees for the Ukraine.  His own actions have completely blocked him from ever getting what he wants in this case.
His best move is actually one he cannot possibly do: set up some kind of defensive alliance -- hey, that's NATO -- so anyway...nukes aren't going to help and he's gone far beyond any form of self-deterence in that his actions have made the solution he seeks absolutely impossible.  So the most sensible thing for NATO to do is to arm itself and let him stew.  There's no other option.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 08:47:38 PM
china is so fucking pissed with putin right now.  :2funny:
they were so proud to be modernizing the military and blah blah hypersonic bullshit.
its like NATO woke up and was like Cold War Part 2, ok we can do this.
weve already deployed the first generation of energy weapons on warships.  pretty sure a frikin laser is faster then mach 6.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 15, 2022, 08:53:12 PM
Interesting Analysis by a group that does good war research and papers
Summary the Russians could pull a big operational strategic upset off here as we focus on the Ukrainian tactical successes.  If the Russians encircle the bulk of the Ukrainian army and destroy it that will certainly change the dynamic.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/not-out-woods-yet-assessing-operational-situation-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 15, 2022, 09:01:04 PM
I've been reading more articles (mostly in the NYTimes) asserting that Putin sees himself as a Russian Orthodox 'savior of his people.' He's destroying Ukraine to 'save it from the decadence and immorality' of Western culture.

These articles further assert that because of Putin's religious pretending, Russian Orthodox clergy, and the Pope in Rome for that matter, have not officially denounced what he is doing. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 09:09:25 PM
really good article Con.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 09:11:06 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 15, 2022, 09:01:04 PM
These articles further assert that because of Putin's religious pretending, Russian Orthodox clergy, and the Pope in Rome for that matter, have not officially denounced what he is doing.

the Pope is dope yo.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pope-toughest-comments-yet-calls-ukraine-invasion-armed-agression-2022-03-13/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 09:29:10 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN7VyAZXEAERE_c?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 15, 2022, 10:15:50 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 09:09:25 PM
really good article Con.

+1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 10:25:27 PM
jomni of the west twitter feed is where ive gotten a lot of the maps ive posted in this thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 15, 2022, 10:39:06 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 10:25:27 PM
jomni of the west twitter feed is where ive gotten a lot of the maps ive posted in this thread.

What's the link?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 15, 2022, 10:47:06 PM
Interesting site showing photo / video of verified Russian vehicle losses.

There are a ton of them. 

Amazing how many abandoned vehicles there are. For example, 13x self-propelled artillery vehicles were just abandoned. Including 9x 152mm 2S19 Mstra-S

The site makes the point that actual totals are higher, since they only count ones with verified video or pictures.

If you click on individual listings you will see the photo.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 10:48:40 PM
and thats another feed thats excellent.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 10:53:31 PM
my sideways thought is what could Poland have done if they were supplied with peer weapons when the Germans invaded?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 15, 2022, 11:22:30 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 10:53:31 PM
my sideways thought is what could Poland have done if they were supplied with peer weapons when the Germans invaded?

I am re-reading Robert Forczyk's excellent "Case White" just because of the similarities with the current war. Interesting that the Germans had a hard time at first, and Polish resistance was pretty fierce. The Germans didn't always do well in the first week or so. Heck, even one of Guderian's panzer units ran out of gas on the first day. When the Poles had decent AT weapons, they did pretty well. They had at least a faint hope, until the Russians joined in; then the Poles were toast.

https://www.amazon.com/Case-White-Invasion-Poland-1939/dp/147283495X/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1647404137&sr=8-1 (https://www.amazon.com/Case-White-Invasion-Poland-1939/dp/147283495X/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1647404137&sr=8-1)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 11:44:42 PM
a month ago I read an excellent book on that campaign but I cant remember the title and its in the bedroom where the dragon sleeps.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 11:55:38 PM
Quote from: Con on March 15, 2022, 08:53:12 PM
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/not-out-woods-yet-assessing-operational-situation-ukraine

going back to the main threat of this article.  I dont think, given the evidence so far, that the soviets have the logistics to pull off the encirclement.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 16, 2022, 05:59:20 AM
Interesting in that Reuters article on the Pope's response that he is just starting to inch closer to calling this a 'war' and has not called out 'Russia' by name in his speeches yet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 07:12:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 11:55:38 PM
Quote from: Con on March 15, 2022, 08:53:12 PM
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/not-out-woods-yet-assessing-operational-situation-ukraine

going back to the main threat of this article.  I dont think, given the evidence so far, that the soviets have the logistics to pull off the encirclement.

  Soviets, eh?  Haven't thrown those in quite yet...but they are throwing in everything but the kitchen sink -- Iskanders with sophisticated decoys (are Ukrainian antiballistic missile defenses that good?)
Apparently, those decoys have never been seen before and the US is interested in working on countermeasures using the new details of these decoys.

  From the NY times:


  And it is highly unlikely, he said, that the version of the Iskander that Russia has sold to other countries would contain these decoys.

"That suggests to me that the Russians place some value on keeping that technology close to home and that this war is important enough to them to give that up," Mr. Lewis said. "They're digging deep, and maybe they no longer care, but I would care if I were them."


  Digging deep and maybe they no longer caring.  Not a good place to be for whoever is digging deep and yet no longer cares.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 16, 2022, 07:15:11 AM
Sky News is reporting that the Ukrainian Army's small mobile counter offensives are really screwing with the Russian Army's plans.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 07:17:18 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 16, 2022, 07:15:11 AM
Sky News is reporting that the Ukrainian Army's small mobile counter offensives are really screwing with the Russian Army's plans.

  That's cool!  And security guarantees are the essence of the problem in stopping the war:

   From CNN:

   Top official rejects "neutrality" model for Ukraine without security guarantees
From Tim Lister and Julia Kesa in Lviv

A senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the country's government rejects the idea floated by Russia that Ukraine should adopt a Swedish or Austrian model of neutrality.

Mykhailo Podolyak said that Ukraine was now in a state of war with Russia, and the security model "can only be Ukrainian" with "legally verified security guarantees. And no other models or options."

"What does that mean?" he continued. "First, absolute security guarantees, which would mean that the signatories of guarantees do not stand aside in the event of an attack on Ukraine, as it is today."
Instead, they would "take an active part on the side of Ukraine in the conflict and provide us with an immediate supply of the necessary weapons."
Podolyak said: "Ukraine has never been a militaristic state that attacks or plans to attack its neighbors ...That is why today Ukraine wants to have a really strong pool of allies with clearly defined security guarantees."


  Because essentially, Putin's attack guarantees that Putin will never get what he wants, even if he "wins" by destroying Ukraine.  It's not going to be "neutral" if his army is sitting in it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 08:45:24 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-mulls-sending-new-switchblade-kamikaze-robot-drone-ukraine

The US is considering sending small kamikaze drones to the Ukraine.  From the above article, these have a 50 mile range, and a small warhead, but IMHO, if provided in quantity (and in sufficient time) and used to target the Russian logistics, could completely snarl the Russians for months
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 08:46:53 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 16, 2022, 07:15:11 AM
Sky News is reporting that the Ukrainian Army's small mobile counter offensives are really screwing with the Russian Army's plans.

  Apparently Elon Musk really hit some nerves or something:

Dmitry Rogozin, director general of Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, responded by calling Musk a "weakling" and "little devil."

"You, little devil, are still young, Compete with me weakling; It would only be a waste of time. Overtake my brother first," Rogozin wrote. He also included the name of the 1800s Russian poem "The Tale of the Priest and of His Workman Balda," which is about a lazy priest who hires a cheap worker before the worker drives him insane.

Full coverage: Updates, analysis, commentary on Ukraine

What is Starlink? Inside the satellite business that could make Elon Musk a trillionaire

Some Ukrainian leaders praised Musk's tweet, including Vitali Klitschko, mayor of Ukraine capital Kyiv and Hall of Fame boxer, who previously vowed to fight "the bloody war" against Russia.

"I am sure that Elon Musk can send Putin to Jupiter," Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov wrote before sharing a link to a website taking donations to "Send Putin to Jupiter."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 08:49:51 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 08:45:24 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-mulls-sending-new-switchblade-kamikaze-robot-drone-ukraine

The US is considering sending small kamikaze drones to the Ukraine.  From the above article, these have a 50 mile range, and a small warhead, but IMHO, if provided in quantity (and in sufficient time) and used to target the Russian logistics, could completely snarl the Russians for months

  It's odd that they are called "kamikaze" since one doesn't call much more highly intelligent cruise missiles "Kamikaze"...Apparently, the drone has some kind of honorary consciousness since (I guess)
you can see things from its point of view.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 16, 2022, 09:00:29 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 08:46:53 AM
  Apparently Elon Musk really hit some nerves or something:

"I am sure that Elon Musk can send Putin to Jupiter," Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov wrote before sharing a link to a website taking donations to "Send Putin to Jupiter."


Just as long as the stakes on the duel do not allow Putin to get his hands on Bezo's rockets to ride on.  Artist's depiction deliberately omitted.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 16, 2022, 09:06:38 AM
Well, it's all fun and giggles with those Russian fuck-ups on YT and Twitter vids.
But we, with our Western imprinted view on losses, supply and attrition, should not make the mistake of underestimating the Russian (government and high rank militaries) will to just suck it up and shrug it off. What's another 10, 20 or 30 battalion tactical groups in the grinder. 

Losses, that in our book would be a minor catastrophy, where some high rank officer would be hold accountable and to blame, war support petering away fast at the always contested Homefront, media and talking heads going apeshit at prime time, politicians thinking about their (re)election and yellow press joining in with a constant stream of sob-stories like "He got killed the hour his baby was born at home"  just don't matter to Putin and his inner circle of yes sayers.

As long as the front line is creeping forward, even so slowly and slower as expected, but the war goals (of official getting handed over the Crimea, all the space east of the Dnieper,  probably Odessa and denying Ukraine access to the Black Sea, and especially no NATO or Western military bases in the rump-Ukraine) are still reachable, there will be no substantial ceasefire.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 16, 2022, 09:16:44 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2022, 11:55:38 PM
Quote from: Con on March 15, 2022, 08:53:12 PM
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/not-out-woods-yet-assessing-operational-situation-ukraine

going back to the main threat of this article.  I dont think, given the evidence so far, that the soviets have the logistics to pull off the encirclement.
Nor the ability.  From RUSI as well.  https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/just-how-tall-are-russian-soldiers
QuoteRussian military performance has been spectacularly poor in Ukraine. At the tactical level, Russian units have showed an inability to follow basic military procedures. They have failed to prove routes, have advanced in densely packed groups of vehicles, have tended to lose momentum when engaged, and been road bound, neither screening their flanks with patrols nor setting up their air defences. The force has shown a very limited capacity to operate in combined arms groupings. In contact, Russian units have behaved erratically and have lacked coordination when under fire. Bizarrely, many Russian units have not even taken precautions that would be consistent with a desire for self-preservation, leading to an unsustainable level of personnel and equipment losses.
The article continues on to discuss the incompetence of commanders and at the operational and strategic level.  I was very surprised at how badly the Russians have performed, I'll eat my hat if the Russian military manages to envelope the Joint Forces Operation fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk. 

Also, NATO is providing intelligence and has a vested interest in Ukraine staying in the fight, and will definitely tell the Ukrainians it is time to go. 

Archived from WSJ:  https://archive.ph/MXY2G
QuoteU.S. officials said the classified information now streaming across secure communications portals includes detailed, tactical data on Russian troop movements that is designed to help Ukraine formulate a military response. They declined to be more specific, citing the classified nature of the exchange.
One U.S. official said the intelligence data first must be scrubbed to remove clues about how it was collected, leading to delays in sharing it with the Ukrainians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 16, 2022, 09:27:57 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/europe/ukraine-russian-prisoners-of-war-intl/index.html

Another soldier held by the Ukrainians told a separate media briefing of his artillery unit's entry from Belarus down the road to Chernihiv. He teared up as he spoke of meeting locals who told his unit to go home, and said, "There are no fascists here."
He also spoke of confusion among units. His group became stuck in a swamp and had to destroy their infantry fighting vehicle. They wandered on foot for several days before reaching a village and surrendering after an exchange of fire.
Another Russian soldier -- in a video released by Ukrainian media -- said he had crossed from Crimea on the first night of the offensive.
The unnamed soldier, who said he was 22 years old and gave his unit's number, said it was soon obvious that "we are not here as peacekeepers, but to fight. We asked commanders what the f**k we are doing here. We couldn't turn around and leave. Behind were the echelons [units] that kill deserters."
The soldier said, "We were told there were no civilians in every settlement. But they were there. It worried us.
"We had already realized that missiles were flying at the civilian population, against ordinary towns but not on military facilities. Although we were told quite the opposite. So, we surrendered."


This can't be confirmed but this is terrible if true.

And it is not that this hasn't happened before : Order 227 - July 27, 1943 (what came to be known as the "Not one step backward" order) : panic makers and cowards must be liquidated on the spot.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 10:15:49 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 08:49:51 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 08:45:24 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-mulls-sending-new-switchblade-kamikaze-robot-drone-ukraine

The US is considering sending small kamikaze drones to the Ukraine.  From the above article, these have a 50 mile range, and a small warhead, but IMHO, if provided in quantity (and in sufficient time) and used to target the Russian logistics, could completely snarl the Russians for months

  It's odd that they are called "kamikaze" since one doesn't call much more highly intelligent cruise missiles "Kamikaze"...Apparently, the drone has some kind of honorary consciousness since (I guess)
you can see things from its point of view.

I think it is just a short hand way of describing this as an expendable drone.  A missile is assumed to be expendable, while a drone is generally presumed to be reusable.  Adding the admittedly colorful description "Kamikaze" properly identifies this as an expendable drone, intended as a piece of ordnance.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 11:25:35 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 10:15:49 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 08:49:51 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 08:45:24 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-mulls-sending-new-switchblade-kamikaze-robot-drone-ukraine

The US is considering sending small kamikaze drones to the Ukraine.  From the above article, these have a 50 mile range, and a small warhead, but IMHO, if provided in quantity (and in sufficient time) and used to target the Russian logistics, could completely snarl the Russians for months

  It's odd that they are called "kamikaze" since one doesn't call much more highly intelligent cruise missiles "Kamikaze"...Apparently, the drone has some kind of honorary consciousness since (I guess)
you can see things from its point of view.

I think it is just a short hand way of describing this as an expendable drone.  A missile is assumed to be expendable, while a drone is generally presumed to be reusable.  Adding the admittedly colorful description "Kamikaze" properly identifies this as an expendable drone, intended as a piece of ordnance.

Right.  I'm overthinking it.  Still it is a nice way to think of differnt ways of picturing AI or guidance systems.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 16, 2022, 11:40:16 AM
And at $6000.00 a piece, I can even afford a couple. I wonder if they take Mastercard?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 11:55:52 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 11:25:35 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 10:15:49 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 08:49:51 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 08:45:24 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-mulls-sending-new-switchblade-kamikaze-robot-drone-ukraine

The US is considering sending small kamikaze drones to the Ukraine.  From the above article, these have a 50 mile range, and a small warhead, but IMHO, if provided in quantity (and in sufficient time) and used to target the Russian logistics, could completely snarl the Russians for months

  It's odd that they are called "kamikaze" since one doesn't call much more highly intelligent cruise missiles "Kamikaze"...Apparently, the drone has some kind of honorary consciousness since (I guess)
you can see things from its point of view.

I think it is just a short hand way of describing this as an expendable drone.  A missile is assumed to be expendable, while a drone is generally presumed to be reusable.  Adding the admittedly colorful description "Kamikaze" properly identifies this as an expendable drone, intended as a piece of ordnance.

Right.  I'm overthinking it.  Still it is a nice way to think of differnt ways of picturing AI or guidance systems.

Back in the day, this gear would have been described as:
(1) Ordnance, guided, aerial, remotely-piloted, short-range, single-use, man-portable. 

However, this nomenclature was subsequently ruled as a war crime by gammarians.   :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 12:21:42 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 16, 2022, 11:40:16 AM
And at $6000.00 a piece, I can even afford a couple. I wonder if they take Mastercard?

Helpful board tip: Don't piss off Sir Slash..... :D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 16, 2022, 12:23:50 PM
Interesting video that attempts to balance the Ukrainian skew of coverage, with some Russian viewpoints. He is not pro-Russian by any means. But he makes the valid point that by only looking at Ukrainian sources, we risk under-estimating Russian operations.

So there are reports of Russians capturing a cache of Javelins and apparently turning them on the Ukrainians. Several Ukrainian units getting hit hard. And he shows how some of the slow Russian advance is so that they can build fuel pipelines.

Also shows how that same column of Russian tanks that bunched up last week in an ambush, had another group who reacted much better to a similar attack.

I find this guy "cappy" to be interesting. Former Army infantry guy has some good analysis of the war, and frankly I think he knows more about what he is talking about than 80% of the talking heads out there; but I can't say I always agree with him. He has a well-established YouTube channel that talks about the nuts and bolts pretty well.

There is some silliness that he interjects from time to time, but get past that and he has some good thoughts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igq2fqa7RY4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igq2fqa7RY4)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 16, 2022, 01:03:50 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 16, 2022, 12:23:50 PM
Interesting video that attempts to balance the Ukrainian skew of coverage, with some Russian viewpoints. He is not pro-Russian by any means. But he makes the valid point that by only looking at Ukrainian sources, we risk under-estimating Russian operations.

So there are reports of Russians capturing a cache of Javelins and apparently turning them on the Ukrainians. Several Ukrainian units getting hit hard. And he shows how some of the slow Russian advance is so that they can build fuel pipelines.

Also shows how that same column of Russian tanks that bunched up last week in an ambush, had another group who reacted much better to a similar attack.

I find this guy "cappy" to be interesting. Former Army infantry guy has some good analysis of the war, and frankly I think he knows more about what he is talking about than 80% of the talking heads out there; but I can't say I always agree with him. He has a well-established YouTube channel that talks about the nuts and bolts pretty well.

There is some silliness that he interjects from time to time, but get past that and he has some good thoughts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igq2fqa7RY4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igq2fqa7RY4)

I think his overall point is well taken and valid. Certainly something that should be analyzed. However, I think the overwhelming evidence from credible sources is that the Russian army is significantly under performing due to several obvious weaknesses. Certainly, the Russian army is making progress on various fronts...that much is apparent just from looking at the map. It is also apparent that Ukraine is sustaining losses. I don't think anyone in the media has really suggested that Ukraine has this one in the bag. To the contrary, I think the military situation is being reported as dire and in need of immediate NATO assistance...for better or for worse.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on March 16, 2022, 01:15:05 PM
The focus on Russian tactical defeats make it difficult to track what state the Ukrainian army is in. Hard to find information on Ukrainian casualties in regular army units as well.

-

Some more images from the Mariupoel front.

The look of the partially destroyed and abandoned buildings is like Stalker (the movie and the games), but this is unfortunately very real.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN4EYLRXIAExqKD?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN4EXPAX0AIo4xJ?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN4EWiOXwAsSTMY?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN4EVpZXIAE56Hr?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 16, 2022, 02:19:03 PM
Russian police arrest a woman on camera for holding a sign that says "two words" (code for "no war")..... then promptly arrest another women who approaches to voice support for Putin's invasion.   #:-)   :uglystupid2:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-woman-protest-blank-sign-arrest-b2035270.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2022, 02:20:27 PM
the Oryx feed on twitter does an outstanding job of keeping a running tally on both sides forces.  Ive mentioned it before so I dont know why your wouldnt use it when data mining.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop

and how about that putin speech today!  hes going full adolf, and you never go full adolf!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 16, 2022, 03:10:02 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2022, 02:20:27 PM
the Oryx feed on twitter does an outstanding job of keeping a running tally on both sides forces.  Ive mentioned it before so I dont know why your wouldnt use it when data mining.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop

and how about that putin speech today!  hes going full adolf, and you never go full adolf!

  I missed his speech, but the Russians aren't answering their deconfliction phones anyway:

NATO has tried to reach Russia unsuccessfully via deconfliction hotline
From CNN's Natasha Bertrand

NATO has tried unsuccessfully to connect with Russia via a deconfliction hotline and written letters as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has spread further west toward NATO territory, senior NATO military officials said on Wednesday.

"We are trying to communicate with them of course," one of the officials told reporters in a briefing at NATO headquarters. "But it requires two [sides] to communicate."

The US also has a separate deconfliction hotline with Russia that it has tested and has determined is functioning but has not yet used in practice, officials have said.

The officials' comments followed Russia's attacks on a Ukrainian military base earlier this week just 10 miles from the Polish border, which raised concerns about the conflict potentially spilling over into a NATO member country.

The current assessment of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander of Europe Gen. Tod Wolters, the officials said, is that "currently there is no threat to NATO as such. Not a deliberate threat by Russia. Russia is occupied for the time being with Ukraine."

But there are of course risks, the officials added, which is why there are now discussions about moving NATO's defensive systems further east.


  So move the defensives further east. Maybe they will answer the phone then.

Meanwhile, in other news the news is pretty mixed -- the Ukrainians seem to be counterattacking and rescuing mayors and such while the
Russians seem to be busy killing lots of people -- just cuz.  How long is it going to take them to take all of Ukraine?  Months at this rate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 16, 2022, 04:05:24 PM
I didn't know Putin gave a speech today and went full Adolf...is there a summary out there somewhere? I won't he able to look on my own until later.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 16, 2022, 04:17:08 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 16, 2022, 04:05:24 PM
I didn't know Putin gave a speech today and went full Adolf...is there a summary out there somewhere? I won't he able to look on my own until later.

Here's a summary from Al Jazeera (I know, but it was all I could find in a quick search.  The good news is you get a free bit of humor in the pop up that says "You Rely on Al Jazeera for Truth and Transparency"   :)  )

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/16/putin-russia-will-achieve-goals-in-ukraine-not-bow-to-the-west
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 16, 2022, 04:39:56 PM
^ :DD

Thank you!

I also found this bit in Politico:

— Ukrainian authorities "discovered a cache of goods that Russian operatives had secretly stored near Lviv in advance of the invasion. This cache was part of a network of secret stashes of goods/equipment the Russian operatives had planted throughout Ukraine for use post-invasion. The Lviv discovery consisted only of dress military uniforms, which SBGS believed were intended for victory parade use, further evidence that the Russians had anticipated a quick nationwide victory." (U.S. State Department cable)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 16, 2022, 04:41:16 PM
Also from Politico:

'DEEPLY DISAPPOINTED': Rep. AMI BERA (D-Calif.), the senior Indian American member of Congress, is "deeply disappointed" in India for abstaining from the U.N. General Assembly vote condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine and seeking to purchase additional Russian oil.

"Despite India's long history defending its own border from outside aggression, New Delhi has chosen to remain silent on Vladimir Putin's unprovoked invasion of a free and sovereign country," he said. "If reports are accurate and India makes this decision to buy Russian oil at a discounted price, New Delhi would be choosing to side with Vladimir Putin at a pivotal moment in history when countries across the world are united in support of the Ukrainian people and against Russia's deadly invasion."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2022, 04:45:29 PM
heres the translation of dickheads speech:

https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/15041461605790801
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 16, 2022, 06:44:16 PM
Putin reminds me of an abusive husband who's wife has finally left him. He wants to go over there and slap that bitch around, only to find when he gets there, she taken a Karate class and kicks him in the balls. Now he's sitting down with an icepack on his crotch yelling at everybody, "You better stay outta my personal business, dammit"! Once more please Mrs. Putin. This time with pointed shoes on.  :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 16, 2022, 06:45:52 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 16, 2022, 06:44:16 PM
Putin reminds me of an abusive husband who's wife has finally left him. He wants to go over there and slap that bitch around, only to find when he gets there, she taken a Karate class and kicks him in the balls. Now he's sitting down with an icepack on his crotch yelling at everybody, "You better stay outta my personal business, dammit"! Once more please Mrs. Putin. This time with pointed shoes on.  :DD

In keeping with the analogy, it's no coincidence that Russia has one of the highest rates of domestic abuse in the world, and domestic abuse is practically legal there as well.  The country is run by a gaslighting abuser and, as they say, sh!t rolls downhill.   :-\
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 16, 2022, 09:41:59 PM
Just curious. How come Putin's not the typical Russian downing Vodka all hours of the day? Or is he? That seems very atypical for a Russian President. Anybody know?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 16, 2022, 10:17:27 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 16, 2022, 09:41:59 PM
Just curious. How come Putin's not the typical Russian downing Vodka all hours of the day? Or is he? That seems very atypical for a Russian President. Anybody know?

You just called me a typical Russian.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2022, 10:59:28 PM
technically vodka is a vegetable smoothie.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on March 17, 2022, 12:38:27 AM
I'm thinking Putin should take Alaska back. It's part of Russia's history & there must be at least one neo nazi that lives there?
p.s. "Don't mention the war"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 17, 2022, 12:50:35 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2022, 10:59:28 PM
technically vodka is a vegetable smoothie.

It's certainly smooth.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Toonces on March 17, 2022, 02:55:42 AM
So I've learned two things so far:

1.  I'm Russian.
2.  Starfury doesn't do anything but review Russian vs. Ukraine, yet not Russia vs. Germany. 

Good to know for future vodka recommendations, and game reviews.   ^-^   :buck2:   :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 17, 2022, 03:10:38 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2022, 10:59:28 PM
technically vodka is a vegetable smoothie.
This reminds me of a college era fruit punch recipe.

1. Pour three bottles of vodka to a large bowl.
2. Add one grape.
3. Remove one grape as not to have the fruit part overwhelming everything else.
4. Enjoy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 17, 2022, 09:07:18 AM
Report that the Ukrainians have been "hunting" senior Russian commanders with success.

Russian use of unsecure comms reportedly led to the death of at least one of the Russians along with his staff.

Kind of reminds me how American long-riflemen became very good at targeting British officers in the American Revolution. Similar concept...just updated technology.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-killed-a-russian-general-after-he-made-an-unsecured-call-that-gave-away-his-location-report-says/ar-AAVbLC5?ocid=undefined (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-killed-a-russian-general-after-he-made-an-unsecured-call-that-gave-away-his-location-report-says/ar-AAVbLC5?ocid=undefined)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 17, 2022, 09:23:07 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 17, 2022, 09:07:18 AM
Report that the Ukrainians have been "hunting" senior Russian commanders with success.

Russian use of unsecure comms reportedly led to the death of at least one of the Russians along with his staff.

Kind of reminds me how American long-riflemen became very good at targeting British officers in the American Revolution. Similar concept...just updated technology.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-killed-a-russian-general-after-he-made-an-unsecured-call-that-gave-away-his-location-report-says/ar-AAVbLC5?ocid=undefined (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-killed-a-russian-general-after-he-made-an-unsecured-call-that-gave-away-his-location-report-says/ar-AAVbLC5?ocid=undefined)

From the links, it sounds like a number of staff officers were also killed.  Possibly it was an artillery strike?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 17, 2022, 09:30:30 AM
^A fourth Russian general was killed in the last 12 hours.

Good video here on Russian military markings and what they mean:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 17, 2022, 09:40:50 AM
Here is the UK MoD assessment of the conflict: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1504336242997174274

From the slide:

-The Russian invasion of Ukraine has largely stalled on all fronts
-Russian forces have made minimal progress on land, sea or air in recent days and they continue to suffer heavy losses.
-Ukrainian resistance remains staunch and well-coordinated.  The vast majority of Ukrinian territory, including all major cities, remains in Ukrainian hands

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 17, 2022, 09:59:07 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 17, 2022, 09:07:18 AM
Report that the Ukrainians have been "hunting" senior Russian commanders with success.

Russian use of unsecure comms reportedly led to the death of at least one of the Russians along with his staff.

Kind of reminds me how American long-riflemen became very good at targeting British officers in the American Revolution. Similar concept...just updated technology.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-killed-a-russian-general-after-he-made-an-unsecured-call-that-gave-away-his-location-report-says/ar-AAVbLC5?ocid=undefined (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-killed-a-russian-general-after-he-made-an-unsecured-call-that-gave-away-his-location-report-says/ar-AAVbLC5?ocid=undefined)

I saw reports last week that the Canadian sniper Wali was heading to Ukraine (https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/elite-canadian-sniper-joins-ukraine-in-fight-against-russia/).  Maybe he bagged a general or two.

But now I'm seeing rumors he may have been killed (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/who-is-wali-the-canadian-sniper-and-what-happened-to-him/ar-AAVagZj).  :(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2022, 11:56:12 AM
russia vs the Irish

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/how-irish-fishermen-took-russian-fleet-and-won/361377/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2022, 12:07:05 PM
and heres some good news for a change.
the theater that the russians bombed yesterday, while pretty much totally destroyed, served its function as a bomb shelter pretty damn well.
the civilians that were sheltered there survived and are being rescued now as they clear debris from the entrances.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 17, 2022, 12:20:35 PM
I know you have all been waiting patiently but finally the Putin Downfall Meme has dropped like a badly planned VDV para drop onto a Ukrainian airfield
And yes the irony of a War to liberate a country from Nazis using Hitlers complete and utter mental breakdown to represent Russia is delicious

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 17, 2022, 01:37:38 PM
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/russian-ambassador-says-bih-can-join-nato-but-moscow-will-react/

Bosnia and Herzegovina has the right to decide whether or not to join NATO, Russian Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina Igor Kalbukhov has said, warning, however, that Moscow reserves the right to respond to such a possibility.
"If (Bosnia and Herzegovina) decides to be a member of any alliance, that is an internal matter. Our response is a different matter. Ukraine's example shows what we expect. Should there be any threat, we will respond," Kalabukhov told the FTV entity broadcaster.

According to Kalabukhov, the West is posing a threat to Bosnia and Herzegovina's security by claiming that Russia "is allegedly preparing a plan."
"We do not have any plans. We will respond having analysed the strategic and geopolitical situation," the ambassador said. NATO membership is not a reality for BiH given the current lack of consensus on the matter in the country, he added.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 17, 2022, 04:20:12 PM
What was even more loopy about the Downfall meme being applied to Ukraine22, is that it could almost just as easily be applied to Ukraine43. (Or even 41 -- things started going really badly for TeamNazi really early, which goes to show that 'going badly' often still gets the job done quite far!) "Don't believe the Nazi propaganda. All lies." made me lol unexpectedly hard given the meme context.  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 17, 2022, 04:28:27 PM
Meanwhile, the reports of blocking forces keeping the assault forces from turning around and quitting, sounds appropriate. Russia has been doing that since at least as far back at Lenin's first few armies in 1918 (maybe longer).

Those blocking forces back then were NKVD, and the ones today are the modern equivalent of NKVD, of course. (Not that Soviet-era NKVD didn't have other jobs; they had a ludicrous number of "mobile response" divisions lined up on the 1941 border, with plans to fulfill the basic functions of Hitler's SS divisions during a successful invasion: pacification of civilian populations.)

Nowadays, the modern equivalent would be run by the organized crime oligarchs, which leads into the twitter stream of Kamil Galeev, who recently posted a long thread explaining that the Russian military has long been hamstrung and bullied by the crime gangs in order to keep the military too weak to stage uprisings against Putin and his cronies. The "Podcast of the Lotus Eaters" comments on that thread here:
. Also included is a reference to the photo-sourced track of Rus v Uks losses.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2022, 04:53:24 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 17, 2022, 01:37:38 PM
Bosnia and Herzegovina has the right to decide whether or not to join NATO, Russian Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina Igor Kalbukhov has said, warning, however, that Moscow reserves the right to respond to such a possibility.
"If (Bosnia and Herzegovina) decides to be a member of any alliance, that is an internal matter. Our response is a different matter. Ukraine's example shows what we expect. Should there be any threat, we will respond," Kalabukhov told the FTV entity broadcaster.

those fucking morons cant even take out a country on their border no less another country thats surrounded by NATO.  wtf are they smoking in the kremlin?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 17, 2022, 06:29:45 PM
The Modern War Institute at West Point has a podcast from 2 days ago about what the battle for Kiev would look like. 

https://mwi.usma.edu/what-will-the-battle-of-kyiv-look-like/

My notes from the podcast:

•   Kiev is what the Russians estimate to be the Center of Gravity of the Operation (I'm not sure that was their original plan, but I would agree they may think so now. )
•   The Russians wanted to do a "Battle of Baghdad" type operation: Do a rush (in this case after capturing an airhead) to get a large force into the city, possibly de-capitate the government and declare victory before the city could be reinforced by forces outside.  Because they failed in this plan, the operation will devolve into a Stalingrad/Manila type operation.
•   The Russians don't have the manpower to take Kiev.  Need at least 5X the defending force, and the Ukrainians have been flowing forces in.   (I'm not sure how this relates to the Stalingrad scenario, unless he means the Russians will simply bomb Kiev into oblivion.)
•   Kiev has an extensive and deep system of underground facilities (subways, sewers, etc) so attriting the defending forces by bombardment will be difficult.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 17, 2022, 09:08:06 PM
Happy St. Paddy's Day...Sky News reports on Ireland and how the Russo-Ukraine War is affecting their traditional neutral stance:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 17, 2022, 09:32:27 PM
A few pages ago someone posted the glorious stand and epic display of cajaones that Irish fishermen made against the Russian Navy a few weeks ago...so there's that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2022, 09:45:15 PM
its on this page and I posted it.
pass that joint Gus.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2022, 09:54:26 PM
fucking love Arnold!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1504426844199669762
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 17, 2022, 11:11:35 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2022, 09:54:26 PM
fucking love Arnold!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1504426844199669762

Dude's amazing. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on March 18, 2022, 05:35:10 AM
Yeah, great guy
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 18, 2022, 10:34:24 AM
The Arnie video is setting the world on fire! (In a good way, not in a Putin way.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 18, 2022, 11:30:06 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2022, 12:07:05 PM
and heres some good news for a change.
the theater that the russians bombed yesterday, while pretty much totally destroyed, served its function as a bomb shelter pretty damn well.
the civilians that were sheltered there survived and are being rescued now as they clear debris from the entrances.

Well, that's good!  In other news, the Russians have repeated that they have the right to blow up things coming into Ukraine (and NATO was already assuming it was odd that the Russians
weren't doing anything about weapons coming into Ukraine from NATO).  In fact, the Russians say, it is "illegal" to ship certain stuff into Ukraine:

Lavrov said Soviet and Russian-made missile defense systems, which are available to some NATO countries, cannot be legally transferred to third countries, according to TASS.


    On the other hand it is "legal" to blow up anything you want to blow up.  I'm somewhat puzzled by the specifying that it is "illegal"...does that legalize blowing up the stuff?  Aren't they
doing that day and night anyway?  I don't get the "illegal" specification.  This would seem surreal if it didn't already seem surreal.  Maybe the more excuses about blowing stuff up the better?
Or is it a warning?  It's not like NATO didn't already know the Russians would like to blow up whatever they send in...just very odd.  Or it would be odd if it wasn't already very odd.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 18, 2022, 12:47:57 PM
Putin held a massive rally with waving flags and music to celebrate the 8th year of the Crimean annexation. Goebbels would have been jealous.

Putin then went into a speech that talked about what a 'great job' Russia has been doing 'developing' the region.

But he never finished it...at least on the broadcast. Suddenly the camera cut away from him mid-sentence and went to music.

The network is saying it was a "technical glitch". Maybe it was some sort of silent protest from the editing room? Or, maybe he was quickly hustled off the stage by security? Or maybe just terrible editing? Hard to tell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kp8qLWbxVTQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kp8qLWbxVTQ)

The whole speech and some analysis from CNN:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NZxNAZdHQo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NZxNAZdHQo)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 18, 2022, 01:17:53 PM
That was grotesque and bizarre at the same time. The CNN commentators didn't appear to say anything live about Putin disappearing. Maybe there was a security threat to him or something similar?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 18, 2022, 02:35:55 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 18, 2022, 01:17:53 PM
That was grotesque and bizarre at the same time. The CNN commentators didn't appear to say anything live about Putin disappearing. Maybe there was a security threat to him or something similar?

I think the speech was prerecorded and they messed up mixing it in to the live event.  A paranoid maniac like Putin wouldn't appear in public on a specific time and a specific place.


BBC News producer Will Vernon, reporting from Moscow, tweeted that after talking to dozens of people who attended the rally, he learned that many of them worked in the public sector and had been pressured into attending.

https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1504838570917474304?s=20&t=R3Hkaj4HbdMknheDKteCUQ

Many said they worked in the public sector (e.g. schoolteachers), and that they had been pressured into attending by their employers. One group of teachers, from a town near Moscow, were being told what to say to us by a woman who appeared to be from the local administration.

Students told us they had been given the option of a day off from lectures if they attended 'a concert.'  Some of them didn't even know that the event was dedicated, in part, to support for Russian forces in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 18, 2022, 02:51:45 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2022, 09:54:26 PM
fucking love Arnold!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1504426844199669762
That was incredibly touching
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 18, 2022, 02:59:29 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 18, 2022, 02:35:55 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 18, 2022, 01:17:53 PM
That was grotesque and bizarre at the same time. The CNN commentators didn't appear to say anything live about Putin disappearing. Maybe there was a security threat to him or something similar?

I think the speech was prerecorded and they messed up mixing it in to the live event.  A paranoid maniac like Putin wouldn't appear in public on a specific time and a specific place.


BBC News producer Will Vernon, reporting from Moscow, tweeted that after talking to dozens of people who attended the rally, he learned that many of them worked in the public sector and had been pressured into attending.

https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1504838570917474304?s=20&t=R3Hkaj4HbdMknheDKteCUQ

Many said they worked in the public sector (e.g. schoolteachers), and that they had been pressured into attending by their employers. One group of teachers, from a town near Moscow, were being told what to say to us by a woman who appeared to be from the local administration.

Students told us they had been given the option of a day off from lectures if they attended 'a concert.'  Some of them didn't even know that the event was dedicated, in part, to support for Russian forces in Ukraine.


CNN is reporting that the entire speech has been rebroadcast now. So some sort of editing error...or who knows...a little bit of sabotage in protest? I guess somebody gets reassigned to TV Siberia.

But as you say, it looked pre-recorded.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 18, 2022, 03:04:34 PM
This is relevant to our interests. 

Humble is doing a huge charity sale.  About $2500 in value of books and games for $40, all going to Ukraine.

Worth it just for Metro alone. 

https://www.humblebundle.com/stand-with-ukraine-bundle?fbclid=IwAR0zn7TCQ4VeQe4duiJJAC7X5UGliaPIy00voux5fcIL_MstAZLdS8ThzR0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 18, 2022, 03:06:49 PM
^Metro Exodus is solid, I just finished it last night.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 18, 2022, 03:18:07 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 18, 2022, 03:04:34 PM
This is relevant to our interests. 

Humble is doing a huge charity sale.  About $2500 in value of books and games for $40, all going to Ukraine.

Worth it just for Metro alone. 

https://www.humblebundle.com/stand-with-ukraine-bundle?fbclid=IwAR0zn7TCQ4VeQe4duiJJAC7X5UGliaPIy00voux5fcIL_MstAZLdS8ThzR0

Thanks for the heads up, lots of cool stuff in that bundle.  Automate the Boring Stuff with Python is also well worth the price for anyone interested in learning programming for basic day-to-day purposes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 18, 2022, 05:16:37 PM
$1.8 million raised so far.  Also contains Endless Space 2, Radio Commander, This War of Mine, Expedition Viking, along with Metro Exodus.  And of course Lust from Beyond!  Minimum of $40.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 18, 2022, 05:30:35 PM
Satisfactory is also very solid and a bunch of fun if you like base building / logistics / factory type games. A few nasty beasties thrown in...but mostly chill..
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2022, 06:50:38 PM
Americans....

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 18, 2022, 07:13:36 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2022, 06:50:38 PM
Americans....


Of course he took an Uber to the front.   

Damn...though that reminds me of the Taxi's of the Battle of the Marne, or the Dunkirk fleet.  Get it done however you can.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 18, 2022, 07:28:52 PM
Damn...God bless them all, including the Uber driver.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sigwolf on March 18, 2022, 08:20:46 PM
I assume this is what DetCord referenced last week.  Hope he comes through OK and does some good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 18, 2022, 08:33:15 PM
For all we know that could have been DetCord speaking English in that video.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 18, 2022, 08:59:49 PM
(https://scontent.fmia1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/275692179_5002219006514514_2976980869485425844_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=5cd70e&_nc_ohc=dasPURAbdPYAX-B4SYm&_nc_ht=scontent.fmia1-1.fna&oh=00_AT-pESpuH_u2f5ufQ2mNe9-etBw__uwkrNwGtYvkbPAFeQ&oe=623B065B)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2022, 09:58:46 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 18, 2022, 08:33:15 PM
For all we know that could have been DetCord speaking English in that video.

No way...the guy in the video was way too much of a pussy to be Detcord.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 19, 2022, 10:57:43 AM
 :dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 19, 2022, 11:16:27 AM
Yeah, you wouldn't see DetCord until....it's too late.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 19, 2022, 12:55:39 PM
things seem to be developing nicely.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FON6vlUX0AIj3vY?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 19, 2022, 01:04:45 PM
Mariupol surrounded and Russian tanks are going in...as stupid as that seems for the Russians. No water, gas or electricity in Mariupol either.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60806973
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 19, 2022, 01:06:04 PM
And 200 Ukrainian soldiers were asleep in their barracks when at least three Russian missiles hit it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60806973
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 19, 2022, 01:09:10 PM
Three Russian cosmonauts entered the ISS wearing Ukrainian blue and yellow:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60804949
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 19, 2022, 01:38:08 PM
Great, sad article in The Atlantic by Ben Rhodes:

"Perhaps it is no coincidence that at precisely the time when living memory of World War II is fading away, humanity has failed to heed the lessons of our worst history."

"How much more strain could a creaky international system bear before it broke?"

"Putin has long been a source of these pressures, simultaneously dragging us back into the darker recesses of history while capitalizing on the vulnerabilities of our present moment. He was at the vanguard of autocrats who claimed power through democracy only to dismantle it. He enriched his circle by selling commodities to the West while lambasting its immorality. He disrupted the international system by taking advantage of the obstruction it afforded him."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ben-rhodes-alexey-navalny-maria-stepanova/627049/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 19, 2022, 02:17:58 PM
Interesting.

https://www.israel365news.com/267509/nato-showcases-female-soldier-with-nazi-symbol-lauds-her-strength-bravery/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 19, 2022, 02:49:50 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 19, 2022, 02:17:58 PM
Interesting.

https://www.israel365news.com/267509/nato-showcases-female-soldier-with-nazi-symbol-lauds-her-strength-bravery/

It's well known that there are in fact neo Nazis in Ukraine, such as the infamous Azov brigade.  It shouldn't come as a surprise at all that such nationalist neonazi types are rallying to fight Russian invaders.  That these individuals are disproportionately focused on is a Russian propaganda tactic to try and legitimize their "neo nazis run Ukraine" argument.  As for NATO tweeting it, I am sure their social media intern feels terribly for the mistake.   :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 19, 2022, 03:00:57 PM
New Farming Simulator DLC

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/KMZ7UuTPc4P6CU_sSxrEXCAl93RaXMd17HiqbNHVbXIoiuIVb9mQd8VeZglC0dNvROXFY9uCpWBlCubdEsJO7rsmjwvt4OgkdhHhIquwvwEL7aTcnAcTw4NeiyocH-ELgFoLT6ILYw=w2400)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 19, 2022, 05:20:05 PM
 :DD :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 19, 2022, 08:05:16 PM
Sounds like another Russian general is toast...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-claims-to-have-killed-fifth-russian-general-since-start-of-the-war/ar-AAVgzX1?ocid=undefined (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-claims-to-have-killed-fifth-russian-general-since-start-of-the-war/ar-AAVgzX1?ocid=undefined)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 19, 2022, 08:18:59 PM
If true the Ukrainians are continuing to build quite the tally.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 19, 2022, 09:21:43 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 19, 2022, 08:18:59 PM
If true the Ukrainians are continuing to build quite the tally.

In more ways than one. 

ISW's weekend analysis was that at this point the current Russian strategy could only achieve a stalemate and they know it.  Right now they're so frustrated that the targeting of civilians and terror bombing is filling in for a coherent plan.

They're stalled and seem to lack any will to do a full operational pause and come up with a strategy for a second campaign.  It's telling that they seem to have called off their operation in Odessa,, and it's speculated that they did that because they had no confidence that they could relieve a beachhead and there was a high likelihood of it being driven into the sea and destroyed.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 19, 2022, 09:47:04 PM
I don't know what to believe. Different media outlets are reporting different takes on the war and its progress. NYTimes is reporting right now how the Russians are making the most progress they have made in three weeks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 19, 2022, 10:54:43 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 19, 2022, 09:47:04 PM
I don't know what to believe.

Yeah.  Fog of War.  Both sides have reason to lie about progress or lack thereof.

We probably won't have a very clear picture of how this went down for a long time. 

And as a history guy I know we'll be arguing about our interpretations forever.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 20, 2022, 01:07:34 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOKRdwPXIAAfX2u?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 20, 2022, 01:51:14 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 19, 2022, 09:47:04 PM
I don't know what to believe. Different media outlets are reporting different takes on the war and its progress. NYTimes is reporting right now how the Russians are making the most progress they have made in three weeks.

We're in the 4th week of the invasion. Russia has failed to capture a single objective city. Russia has failed to gain air superiority. Ukraine still has command and control and is capable of coordinating effective counter attacks. By all accounts, Russian losses have been severe. Progress or not, this war is nowhere near being over.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 20, 2022, 08:04:15 AM
The more insightful analytical sites agree on the following
1 Russia is moving into a defensive attritional war
2 Russias current strung out multi axis advance and confinement to roads is not sustainable for logistics and personnel on an attritional war and they will need to consolidate and pull back.
3 the Russian strategy has been so incoherent and bad that they may not pull back
4 Ukraine can make them suffer in an attritional war but Ukraine also looses. Looses troops, civilians and infrastructure since the only investments that will be made in the Ukraine are weapons systems.
5 national will at home and moral of the army will ultimately decide. It will be 1918 all over again

Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 20, 2022, 08:05:17 AM

\m/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 20, 2022, 10:07:12 AM
^Holy moly, that is great.

Before this phase of the wider war, the fighting in Donbas also very closely resembled attritional First World War style fighting.

Unfortunately more of the same for the rest of Ukraine moving forward, it looks like.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 20, 2022, 02:41:51 PM
At this point, you have to wonder if the Russian lack of progress is on account of their incompetence or perhaps, the soldiers themselves are largely resisting to fight a war they believe is wrong. That could explain Putin using foreign fighters who have no reluctance to killing those they do not see as their own people.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 20, 2022, 02:58:12 PM
Hmm Mike's original post is not available anymore. Maybe this version will work:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 20, 2022, 04:35:20 PM
Saboteurs active in Belarus (https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-699184).

https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/03/19/belarus-rail-lines-carrying-trains-with-supplies-for-the-russian-army-are-being-hit-by-sabotage-attacks-n538248
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 20, 2022, 06:44:00 PM
Quote from: Con on March 20, 2022, 08:04:15 AM
The more insightful analytical sites agree on the following
1 Russia is moving into a defensive attritional war
2 Russias current strung out multi axis advance and confinement to roads is not sustainable for logistics and personnel on an attritional war and they will need to consolidate and pull back.
3 the Russian strategy has been so incoherent and bad that they may not pull back
4 Ukraine can make them suffer in an attritional war but Ukraine also looses. Looses troops, civilians and infrastructure since the only investments that will be made in the Ukraine are weapons systems.
5 national will at home and moral of the army will ultimately decide. It will be 1918 all over again

Con

  Sounds plausible.  In 1914 Four Empires went to war in Eastern Europe.  By 1918, all four were destroyed.  Not very promising for everyone involved this time.

  PS: Maybe the Turks and Ottomans deserve more credit than the average empire since they might be said to have fallen first (Young Turks, 1908) and last (officially in 1922).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 20, 2022, 07:25:37 PM
^Good point.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 20, 2022, 09:33:59 PM
One empire had fallen by 1917, helped along by a certain other Russian mystic, who often interfered in military affairs.  Coincidentally with a name very similar to the present leader.  Also it helped that Imperial Germany sent Lenin from exile with money to foment revolution.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 20, 2022, 10:00:06 PM
Report of an "elite" Ukrainian drone unit taking out Russian vehicles at night. Apparently, they are using Elon Musk's Starlink to link drone pilots and drones. Apparently Starlink is providing a stable internet connection where outages might otherwise make it difficult. Sounds like they use mostly small 3 - 5 kg bombs to take out vehicles.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/an-elite-ukrainian-drone-unit-exploits-the-cover-of-night-to-destroy-russian-tanks-and-trucks-while-their-soldiers-sleep-report-says/ar-AAViepy?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/an-elite-ukrainian-drone-unit-exploits-the-cover-of-night-to-destroy-russian-tanks-and-trucks-while-their-soldiers-sleep-report-says/ar-AAViepy?ocid=msedgntp)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 20, 2022, 10:00:50 PM
I find the BBC's tracking of the war to be informative:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

They generate their maps from UK MOD:  https://twitter.com/defencehq
Institute for the Study of War:  https://www.understandingwar.org/
and American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats:  https://www.criticalthreats.org/ 

They all agree that the Russian attack has culminated but is preparing for a long war of attrition.  Ukraine has also made successful counterattacks such as in Kherson Oblast near Mykolaiv. 

The Russian military is still making mistakes and are facing very serious manpower problems:
QuoteMar 19, 2022 - Press ISW

Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That campaign has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way. The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail.

QuoteMar 20, 2022 - Press ISW

The Ukrainian General Staff reported for the first time that the Kremlin is preparing its population for a "long war" in Ukraine and implementing increasingly draconian mobilization measures. The General Staff reported the Russian military commissariats of the Kuban, Primorsky Krai, Yaroslavl Oblast, and Ural Federal Districts are conducting covert mobilization measures but are facing widespread resistance.

There are further indications of the manpower problems and more importantly very serious disciplinary problems: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-20
A bit long but well worth the read.
QuoteThe Ukrainian General Staff reported for the first time that the Kremlin is preparing its population for a "long war" in Ukraine and implementing increasingly draconian mobilization measures.[1] The General Staff reported the Russian military commissariats of the Kuban, Primorsky Krai, Yaroslavl Oblast, and Ural Federal Districts are conducting covert mobilization measures but are facing widespread resistance. The General Staff reported the Russian PMC Wagner Group will facilitate the transport of Libyan fighters from LNA leader Khalifa Haftar's forces to Ukraine. The General Staff reported universities in the DNR and LNR are conscripting students above the age of 18 and that most units in the DNR's 1st Army Corps are comprised of the "mobilized population," rather than trained soldiers, and face low morale and equipment shortages. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) additionally reported on March 20 that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed an order to prepare to admit Unarmiya (Russian Youth Army, a Kremlin-run military youth organization) personnel aged 17-18 to fight in Ukraine on March 15.[2] The GUR further reported Colonel General Gennady Zhidko, head of the Russian Military-Political Directorate, is in charge of executing the order. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 19 that Russian officials "severely reprimanded" the head of the 652nd unit of Information and Psychological Operations for his "weak efforts" and inability to create a "Kherson People's Republic."[3]

Russian forces face mounting casualties among officers and increasingly frequent desertion and insubordination. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported on March 19 that "some [Russian] naval infantry units" (unspecified which, but likely referring to Eastern Military District units deployed to the fighting around Kyiv) have lost up to 90% of their personnel and cannot generate replacements.[4] The Ukrainian General Staff reported at noon local time on March 20 that Ukrainian forces wounded the commander of the 346th Independent Spetsnaz Brigade and claimed that Ukrainian forces killed the commanders of the 331st VDV Regiment, 247th VDV Regiment, and the 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, CMD) at unspecified times and locations.[5] The General Staff reported the Russian Black Sea Fleet is replacing 130 insubordinate soldiers in the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade with paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Assault Division – a measure highly likely to cause greater unit cohesion problems.[6] The General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces are increasingly using "outdated and partially defective equipment" to replace combat losses.[7]

The Ukrainian MoD reported that forced mobilization in the DNR has demoralized Russian proxy forces, with many refusing to fight and accusing Russian leadership of forcing them into combat to find Ukrainian troop positions. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported the number of insubordinate Russian personnel who are refusing combat orders is "sharply increasing" in the Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts on March 20.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff reported the Russian military commandant office in Belgorod City is investigating 10 Russian servicemen of 138th Motor Rifle Brigade who refused to continue fighting in Kharkiv and agitated for other Russian servicemen to abandon their posts.[9]

It looks like a push in the right direction might end with a repeat of the 1917 mutinies.  Russia doesn't need to be dismembered but it does need to be stopped from killing its brothers and sisters. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 20, 2022, 10:09:30 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 20, 2022, 10:00:06 PM
Report of an "elite" Ukrainian drone unit taking out Russian vehicles at night. Apparently, they are using Elon Musk's Starlink to link drone pilots and vehicles. Apparently Starlink is providing a stable internet connection where outages might otherwise make it difficult. Sounds like they use mostly small 3 - 5 kg bombs to take out vehicles.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/an-elite-ukrainian-drone-unit-exploits-the-cover-of-night-to-destroy-russian-tanks-and-trucks-while-their-soldiers-sleep-report-says/ar-AAViepy?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/an-elite-ukrainian-drone-unit-exploits-the-cover-of-night-to-destroy-russian-tanks-and-trucks-while-their-soldiers-sleep-report-says/ar-AAViepy?ocid=msedgntp)

Russia is using a fully autonomous drone, the Kalashnikov ZALA Aero KUB-BLA in Ukraine.  https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/russia-may-have-used-a-killer-robot-in-ukraine-now-what/  It may not have been used autonomously, but they are fielding one that is capable of not requiring human control.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 20, 2022, 10:37:52 PM
Droning on.

Fukuyama (yes that Fukuyama) writes about drones in 2021, most especially the Bayraktar TB2 that Ukraine is using:  https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/droning-on/
QuoteThe effectiveness of these weapons was first demonstrated beyond Turkey's borders in Syria in March 2020, where in retaliation for a Russian-backed Syrian attack that killed 36 Turkish soldiers, Ankara launched a devastating attack on Syrian armored forces that were moving into Idlib province along the Turkish border. Video footage showed them destroying one Syrian armored vehicle after another, including more than 100 tanks, armored personnel carriers, and air defense systems.
Footage accredited to al-Jazeera  https://twitter.com/ajmubasher/status/1233881050809602053

QuoteThe Syrian offensive was brought to a complete halt, and Idlib province secured as a haven for refugees. Then in May, Turkish drones were used to attack an air base in Libya used by UAE-backed Libyan National Army of General Khalifa Haftar, which ended the LNA's offensive against Tripoli. Finally, during the Nagorno-Karabakh war in September, Turkish drones intervening for Azerbaijan against Armenia destroyed an estimated 200 tanks, 90 other armored vehicles, and 182 artillery pieces, forcing the latter to withdraw from the territory. This has become a point of nationalist pride in Turkey, as this pro-Azeri video suggests.


Oh, if you're interested Fukuyama says that history will truly end this time  :P  https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/
QuotePutin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
Not all Fukuyama's fault but my personal belief is that the belief in the triumph of liberalism after 1991 did nothing to prepare for the shocks of September 11th, the 'little green men' of 2014 running around in EMR battle dress with PKMs and VSS Vintorez, nor for the war in Ukraine presently.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 20, 2022, 10:43:14 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2022, 04:53:24 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 17, 2022, 01:37:38 PM
Bosnia and Herzegovina has the right to decide whether or not to join NATO, Russian Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina Igor Kalbukhov has said, warning, however, that Moscow reserves the right to respond to such a possibility.
"If (Bosnia and Herzegovina) decides to be a member of any alliance, that is an internal matter. Our response is a different matter. Ukraine's example shows what we expect. Should there be any threat, we will respond," Kalabukhov told the FTV entity broadcaster.


those fucking morons cant even take out a country on their border no less another country thats surrounded by NATO.  wtf are they smoking in the kremlin?

The Serbs (even though in NATO Partnership for Peace) are close to Russia  https://news.yahoo.com/serbs-march-support-mother-russia-072305935.html  but I don't think they want to raise the ire of EU and UK and or NATO. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 21, 2022, 01:03:59 AM
then their leaders are smart enough to sit down and stfu.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 21, 2022, 08:53:13 AM
The way they were shaking that thing, I sure hope it was a dud. :timeout:



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10633887/Unexploded-Russian-missile-Ukrainian-kitchen-bomb-disposal-crew-wiggle.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 21, 2022, 10:33:18 AM
 :DD  "For Disposal of Unexploded Bombs and Missiles, Call 'Billy-Bob's Bomb Disposal'. On The Job 24 Hours A-Day Until This Morning".  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 21, 2022, 10:53:53 AM
Looks like it might be the 9M55K from the Smerch MRLS.  The submunitions are long gone. 
(https://armamentresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/9M55K.jpg)
Looks like the smaller Grad 122mm Tornado-G BM-21
(https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/cat-uxo-storage-production/hazards/1519/images/9m22u-001.jpg)
Could be worse.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Molotov_bread_basket.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 21, 2022, 01:32:55 PM
A 96-year-old concentration camp survivor was killed Friday after his home in Kharkiv was damaged by Russians.  After surviving the Holocaust at concentration camps in Buchenwald, Peenemünde, Mittelbau-Dora and Bergen-Belsen, Boris Romantschenko advocated throughout his life for Nazi crimes to be recognized and properly memorialized.

https://twitter.com/Buchenwald_Dora/status/1505876638076215299?cxt=HHwWhoC9gd20-eUpAAAA

Romantschenko served as the vice-president of the International Committee Buchenwald-Dora, a historic organization that helps Holocaust survivors preserve memories about the struggle against fascist regimes, only to be killed by an army led by a fascist.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 21, 2022, 01:38:16 PM
Horrible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 21, 2022, 02:00:44 PM
More info on the drone war:

As a side note, I have seen quite a few good articles from Forbes on the war. Pretty good for a financial mag.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-drones-are-wreaking-havoc-on-the-russian-army/ar-AAVjQD2?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-drones-are-wreaking-havoc-on-the-russian-army/ar-AAVjQD2?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 21, 2022, 02:57:13 PM
A since deleted article on the pro kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda listed almost 10k Russian soldiers killed and 15k wounded.
This could be a hack and propaganda for Ukraine but it is inline with several independent assessments has since been deleted and also list armor and helicopter looses that seem reasonable based on the counts.
Twitter link below
https://twitter.com/edwardgluce/status/1505987094392541196?s=21
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 21, 2022, 03:14:59 PM
Quote from: Con on March 21, 2022, 02:57:13 PM
A since deleted article on the pro kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda listed almost 10k Russian soldiers killed and 15k wounded.
This could be a hack and propaganda for Ukraine but it is inline with several independent assessments has since been deleted and also list armor and helicopter looses that seem reasonable based on the counts.
Twitter link below
https://twitter.com/edwardgluce/status/1505987094392541196?s=21

  IIRC, that tabloid is edited in Belarus.  In any case, I wonder what Belarus is going to do with Russia sort of all falling apart all around its ears.  They seem to be lying low and hoping this
all blows over somehow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 21, 2022, 03:31:12 PM
It seems like Russia is settling into a long war of attrition, targeting Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure as much as their military.  Militarily, that probably qualifies as a victory in any wargame where you play as the Ukrainians.  In a certain sense, this is like the military version of porn. 

From a humanitarian disaster, I can't even imagine how bad this is going to get.  That certainly puts my respect for the Ukrainian military into perspective.

Due to the fog of war, all we can conclude safely at this point is that Russian military hardware seems to work reasonably well. 

When in the hands of well-trained and motivated Ukrainian soldiers, at least...

I take all the videos I see online with a big grain of salt, but am I the only one who can't recall seeing a single video of Russian infantry?  The handful of videos I've seen seem to mostly show Russian tanks operating in isolation, or perhaps escorting fully buttoned-up AFV troop carriers. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 21, 2022, 04:23:38 PM
There's this now infamous video of Russian troops getting trapped in an apartment building elevator...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 21, 2022, 04:35:18 PM
Today I learned Russia and Japan never formally ended World War II.   :o

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-japan-peace-treaty-ukraine-invasion/31763675.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 21, 2022, 07:47:39 PM
Talking about Double U Double U Eye Eye from https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21
QuoteThe Ukrainian General Staff stated for the first time on March 21 that Russia is deploying unspecified support units to "direct combat operations" and said that Russia continues to deploy reserves from the Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD).[5] The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) provided further details on conscription measures in the DNR and LNR on March 21. They reported that Russian authorities are increasing the conscription age from 55 to 65 and aggressively recruiting 18-year-old students.  The GUR reported conscripts in DNR/LNR forces are supplied with military equipment from the 1970s.[6] Local social media imagery depicted new conscripts equipped with the Mosin-Nagant bolt action rifle—which has not been produced since 1973 and was first produced in 1891
Maybe they're being given initial marksmanship training on the M-N rifle, maybe not, but it definitely indicates some kind of shortage.  The twitter pic is no longer available though. 

Just throw the damn thing away and surrender.
Edit: so stunned made a sp and grammatical error.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 21, 2022, 07:52:09 PM
^1891!!

And I also didn't know that Japan and Russia never formally ended hostilities from WWII.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 21, 2022, 08:32:28 PM
Round up potential trouble-makers, give them poopy equipment, shove them out front to soak up fire and then declare them martyrs and heroes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 21, 2022, 09:51:37 PM
When Putin runs out of 18 year old conscripts, I wonder if he will go back to those Russian Dog-Bombs I read about in, "Hitler Turns East" when I was a kid. I heard somebody seized his private yacht today too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 22, 2022, 04:50:57 AM
So - we are now expecting Russia to use biological and chemical weapons...and still no red line drawn by NATO or the UN?

Putin plays the tune, and NATO dances.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 22, 2022, 05:44:08 AM
Where'd you read that?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 05:58:47 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 21, 2022, 07:52:09 PM
^1891!!

And I also didn't know that Japan and Russia never formally ended hostilities from WWII.

  This is all news to me.  OF course (as I found in Enlisted) the Mosan-Nagant has gotten many modifications since 1891.  Also...if the Russians throw the locals into the battle, what's to stop the
locals (in those places I cant spell and in Belarus) from switching sides...maybe that's why they are getting thrown in...just to keep them from "getting any ideas"...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 22, 2022, 06:43:58 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 21, 2022, 07:47:39 PM
Talking about Double U Double U Eye Eye from https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21
QuoteThe Ukrainian General Staff stated for the first time on March 21 that Russia is deploying unspecified support units to "direct combat operations" and said that Russia continues to deploy reserves from the Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD).[5] The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) provided further details on conscription measures in the DNR and LNR on March 21. They reported that Russian authorities are increasing the conscription age from 55 to 65 and aggressively recruiting 18-year-old students.  The GUR reported conscripts in DNR/LNR forces are supplied with military equipment from the 1970s.[6] Local social media imagery depicted new conscripts equipped with the Mosin-Nagant bolt action rifle—which has not been produced since 1973 and was first produced in 1891
Maybe they're being given initial marksmanship training on the M-N rifle, maybe not, but it definitely indicates some kind of shortage.  The twitter pic is no longer available though. 

Just throw the damn thing away and surrender.
Edit: so stunned made a sp and grammatical error.

I find that this report stretches the bounds of credulity. Yes, it is clear that the Russian military is plagued with problems ranging from poor training and morale to poor maintenance of equipment, lack of proper planning, inadequate logistics, corruption, incompetent leadership, etc...but I still find it hard to believe that the Russian military lacks enough kalashnikov rifles to equip its army and needs to rely on M-Ns. Over 100 million kalashnikov family rifles have been manufactured and the Russian military has very large stockpiles of them. Hell, they've probably exported millions of them. I also find it hard to believe that after about a month of war they are already being forced to recruit AARP members. It just doesn't make sense. Sounds grossly exaggerated to me.

Otherwise, the report does seem to be about measures in the DNR and LNR, only, so even if true, it is a little deceptive in that the severity of the claim does not pertain to the condition of the Russian military at large...only in a very small area that has been at war for many years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 22, 2022, 07:21:02 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 22, 2022, 04:50:57 AM
So - we are now expecting Russia to use biological and chemical weapons...and still no red line drawn by NATO or the UN?

Putin plays the tune, and NATO dances.


That's what is baffling me as well. 

The news keeps talking about the possibility that Putin will use WMDs but for some reason the West won't draw a line.  It all seems like just a bunch of talk to me but I wouldn't be surprised if powerful stuff is used at some point.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 22, 2022, 07:39:51 AM
I find the whole conscription thing weird.   Don't the Russians have several million in the reserves?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 22, 2022, 08:10:07 AM
Welp, those people calling for a three-week invasion-supply limit (or less) have turned out to be correct! Time for sitzkrieg! Strictly speaking, Putin should have more shells for that than Guderian did (or whoever coined that term 3 weeks into Barbarossa.)

I was a little surprised to hear that Odessa had not in fact been taken. Not very surprised, but a little -- the basic news account seemed to be that it was held as a secured beachhead but nothing much was happening there. I'm glad for Ukraine that they may have to withdraw or be destroyed (shades of Gallipoli!)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2022, 08:12:44 AM
Interesting piece on current actions of the Ukrainian Air Force. Apparently still flying missions out of obscure airstrips in western Ukraine. The article says 10 sorties a day, vs. 200 Russian. The Ukrainians are claiming 97 Russian fixed wing aircraft shot down.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-ukraine-s-outgunned-air-force-is-fighting-back-against-russian-jets/ar-AAVmcbe?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-ukraine-s-outgunned-air-force-is-fighting-back-against-russian-jets/ar-AAVmcbe?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 22, 2022, 08:14:13 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 22, 2022, 07:39:51 AM
I find the whole conscription thing weird.   Don't the Russians have several million in the reserves?

My guess is that they need those reserves doing other things right now (especially in agriculture and industry), whereas they think they just need bodies to hold ground and super young/old green troops would do well enough for that in their calculus. In any case, Putin is headbutting hard against Shaposhnikov's maxim: "Don't play games with mobilization."

Relatedly, though, it has been about a week since that armored division from the Far East sector was deployed westward, right? I wonder where it ended up, or if it's even ready for action yet?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 22, 2022, 08:24:46 AM
Meanwhile, I'm back to wondering this morning if Putin should have pulled a Montgomery and launched two mutually supporting parallel thrusts toward a target (presumably Kiev?) rather than, as I half-joked earlier, playing a "Dumbledore Gambit" and throwing out a bunch of plots to see which ones might work out for opportunistic exploitation. (And/or shown off "hey look at all the combined ops I know how to do!")

A Monty Gambit would have certainly simplified and focused his invasion logistics, even though it would have allowed Ukraine to focus its own defense efforts (but that's why you throw two strong mutually supporting punches, creating localized flanking opportunities and securing an air corridor.)

This is more like the Allies deciding to invade Italy from Sicily AND invade southern France AND invade Normandy at the same time. In 1943. (Granted, there were emergency plans to do that if Stalin started collapsing, but still no one was eager to try it. Except Stalin, somewhat understandably. ;) )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2022, 08:40:02 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 21, 2022, 04:35:18 PM
Today I learned Russia and Japan never formally ended World War II.   :o

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-japan-peace-treaty-ukraine-invasion/31763675.html

I lived in Japan in the '90s, and even then, the fate of the Kuriles would come into every-day conversation with older Japanese; these folks were not fans of the Russians. I am guessing that the issue is out of the public consciousness these days however. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 22, 2022, 08:54:56 AM
Does no one else think he's going to cut Ukraine in half by troops joining from the south and the north and kind of putting the whole area under long term siege? Looks feasibly to me on paper.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2022, 08:57:27 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 22, 2022, 08:14:13 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 22, 2022, 07:39:51 AM
I find the whole conscription thing weird.   Don't the Russians have several million in the reserves?

My guess is that they need those reserves doing other things right now (especially in agriculture and industry), whereas they think they just need bodies to hold ground and super young/old green troops would do well enough for that in their calculus. In any case, Putin is headbutting hard against Shaposhnikov's maxim: "Don't play games with mobilization."
....

Agree on "bodies to hold ground." Maybe the Russians are looking toward getting enough garrison troops for a long occupation. I could see that they would not waste well-trained reserves in such roles. Also, Putin probably wants to keep strong forces and reserves available to keep NATO in check elsewhere.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 22, 2022, 08:58:34 AM
^I agree.  That makes sense.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 09:44:19 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 22, 2022, 08:54:56 AM
Does no one else think he's going to cut Ukraine in half by troops joining from the south and the north and kind of putting the whole area under long term siege? Looks feasibly to me on paper.

  It's a plan of sorts at least anyway.  Meanwhile, what about Belarus?  Does Putin want another unstable area in the region?  He might have to send forces to occupy Belarus too, apparently:

Belarus could "soon" join war in Ukraine, US and NATO officials say
From CNN's Natasha Bertrand, Jennifer Hansler, Jim Sciutto and CNN staff in Kyiv

It is increasingly "likely" that Belarus will enter the conflict, a NATO military official said on Monday.

"Putin needs support. Anything would help," the official explained.

A Belarusian opposition source said that Belarusian combat units are ready to go into Ukraine as soon as the next few days, with thousands of forces prepared to deploy. In this source's view, this will have less of an impact militarily than it will geopolitically, given the implications of another country joining the war.

A senior NATO intelligence official said separately the alliance assesses that the Belarusian government "is preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine."

Belarusians voted last month to allow the country to host both Russian forces and nuclear weapons permanently, though US officials have emphasized to CNN that they have not yet seen any evidence of Russia moving nuclear weapons or preparing to. 

The sources emphasized that there have been no indications to date that Belarus is currently participating in the fighting in Ukraine, and a senior US defense official said the Pentagon had not seen "any indications that the Belarusians are preparing to move ... into Ukraine or that they have made any agreements to do that."

The NATO military official said that a final decision for Belarus' involvement in the war still has to be made in Moscow, and as of yet, there has been no indication that Belarusian forces are participating in the fighting in Ukraine.

"It is not about what [Alexander] Lukashenko wants," the official explained, referring to the Belarusian president. "The question is: Does Putin want another unstable country in the region?"

"Involvement would destabilize Belarus," the official said.
The official wouldn't elaborate on how Belarus could intervene in the war, but said it made sense for Russia to try and cut off NATO military aid coming into Ukraine from its Western border.



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2022, 09:46:50 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 22, 2022, 08:54:56 AM
Does no one else think he's going to cut Ukraine in half by troops joining from the south and the north and kind of putting the whole area under long term siege? Looks feasibly to me on paper.

That has been an open question I've heard for a week or so...why aren't the Russians doing that? I guess the answer has to do with the Ukrainians who are probably fighting like he$$ to keep that from happening. Also, that would dramatically increase their frontage, and stretch supply lines; two things the Russians don't seem to be very good at. Anyway, those are my thoughts. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 22, 2022, 10:44:24 AM
Putin's KGB right? Those State Security types don't make really great Generals. And with Vlad not trusting anyone but his cook/Wagner buddy, maybe he is calling all the balls and strikes himself. Which might explain the confused strategy and lack of focus on a single, decisive target.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 22, 2022, 10:59:48 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 22, 2022, 06:43:58 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 21, 2022, 07:47:39 PM
Talking about Double U Double U Eye Eye from https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21
QuoteThe Ukrainian General Staff stated for the first time on March 21 that Russia is deploying unspecified support units to "direct combat operations" and said that Russia continues to deploy reserves from the Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD).[5] The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) provided further details on conscription measures in the DNR and LNR on March 21. They reported that Russian authorities are increasing the conscription age from 55 to 65 and aggressively recruiting 18-year-old students.  The GUR reported conscripts in DNR/LNR forces are supplied with military equipment from the 1970s.[6] Local social media imagery depicted new conscripts equipped with the Mosin-Nagant bolt action rifle—which has not been produced since 1973 and was first produced in 1891
Maybe they're being given initial marksmanship training on the M-N rifle, maybe not, but it definitely indicates some kind of shortage.  The twitter pic is no longer available though. 

Just throw the damn thing away and surrender.
Edit: so stunned made a sp and grammatical error.

I find that this report stretches the bounds of credulity. Yes, it is clear that the Russian military is plagued with problems ranging from poor training and morale to poor maintenance of equipment, lack of proper planning, inadequate logistics, corruption, incompetent leadership, etc...but I still find it hard to believe that the Russian military lacks enough kalashnikov rifles to equip its army and needs to rely on M-Ns. Over 100 million kalashnikov family rifles have been manufactured and the Russian military has very large stockpiles of them. Hell, they've probably exported millions of them. I also find it hard to believe that after about a month of war they are already being forced to recruit AARP members. It just doesn't make sense. Sounds grossly exaggerated to me.

...

I agree it is unlikely the Russians lack AK-47s.  In fact, I would be willing to bet that they have more AK-47 or successor rifles on hand than they have Mosin's.  My guess is that they are using the Mosin as training aids for basic training.  When I went to AOCS we were issued M-1 Garands.  They were demilitarized by taking a cutting torch to the underside of the barrel.  But they still weighed 9.1 pounds, still rusted so they needed to be cleaned, and still could give you "M-1 thumb".  In short, they were ideal for training purposes.  Possibly the Mosin's are serving the same function in the Russian army.  Alternatively, they are being used for markmanship training.  But I seriously doubt they are being issued for any sort of actual field use.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 22, 2022, 11:28:52 AM
Here's an interesting one...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 22, 2022, 12:08:30 PM
Interesting.  That can't be footage of actual soldiers? 

I like what narrator quoted at the end, "i've seen paintball teams with better organization".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 12:30:46 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 22, 2022, 12:08:30 PM
Interesting.  That can't be footage of actual soldiers? 

I like what narrator quoted at the end, "i've seen paintball teams with better organization".

  Maybe they are the cream of the 4000 Wagner Group assassins that went to kill any one of 23 Ukrainian leaders on some playing cards (not playing with a full deck apparently).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2022, 01:41:08 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 12:30:46 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 22, 2022, 12:08:30 PM
Interesting.  That can't be footage of actual soldiers? 

I like what narrator quoted at the end, "i've seen paintball teams with better organization".

  Maybe they are the cream of the 4000 Wagner Group assassins that went to kill any one of 23 Ukrainian leaders on some playing cards (not playing with a full deck apparently).

Reminds me of the stories about the Soviets in Afghanistan. In an ambush, the Soviets in the kill zone would bunch up, and none of the troops would take command when leaders were killed. Troops outside the kill zone would not maneuver to counter-attack the ambush positions. However, guess that later in the conflict, the Russians got better at battling ambushes.

In Ukraine, most of the Russian ability to react to ambushes seems to be abysmal. However, I have seen one drone video where a platoon sized Russian tank unit actually reacted pretty well   to an ambush. The tanks took cover, turned toward the ambush, and started to return fire. But at least in video land, that reaction seems to be the exception.

I think the thing to watch in the coming weeks is if the Russians can learn from their mistakes. If history means anything, the Russians may not be done yet.

For example, the British had a terrible opening to the Second Boer War, mostly due to their failure adapt to Boer tactics and weapons. After the first three months of the war, where the British had lost all of the major battles they fought and took horrendous casualties, many observers had written them off. But the British learned their lessons, adapted their organization and tactics, and eventually put major Boer formations to flight (of course the war then become a massive guerilla war...but that is another story).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 22, 2022, 02:12:56 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2022, 08:57:27 AM
Agree on "bodies to hold ground." Maybe the Russians are looking toward getting enough garrison troops for a long occupation. I could see that they would not waste well-trained reserves in such roles. Also, Putin probably wants to keep strong forces and reserves available to keep NATO in check elsewhere.

Or even more likely, to keep his own people in check elsewhere.

Quote from: Sir Slash on March 22, 2022, 10:44:24 AM
Putin's KGB right? Those State Security types don't make really great Generals. And with Vlad not trusting anyone but his cook/Wagner buddy, maybe he is calling all the balls and strikes himself. Which might explain the confused strategy and lack of focus on a single, decisive target.

Heh, wonder if he left the KGB as a corporal...!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 02:39:08 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2022, 01:41:08 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 12:30:46 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 22, 2022, 12:08:30 PM
Interesting.  That can't be footage of actual soldiers? 

I like what narrator quoted at the end, "i've seen paintball teams with better organization".

  Maybe they are the cream of the 4000 Wagner Group assassins that went to kill any one of 23 Ukrainian leaders on some playing cards (not playing with a full deck apparently).

Reminds me of the stories about the Soviets in Afghanistan. In an ambush, the Soviets in the kill zone would bunch up, and none of the troops would take command when leaders were killed. Troops outside the kill zone would not maneuver to counter-attack the ambush positions. However, guess that later in the conflict, the Russians got better at battling ambushes.

In Ukraine, most of the Russian ability to react to ambushes seems to be abysmal. However, I have seen one drone video where a platoon sized Russian tank unit actually reacted pretty well   to an ambush. The tanks took cover, turned toward the ambush, and started to return fire. But at least in video land, that reaction seems to be the exception.

I think the thing to watch in the coming weeks is if the Russians can learn from their mistakes. If history means anything, the Russians aren't done yet.

For example, the British had a terrible opening to the Second Boer War, mostly due to their failure adapt to Boer tactics and weapons. After the first three months of the war, where the British had lost all of the major battles they fought and took horrendous casualties, many observers had written them off. But the British learned their lessons, adapted their organization and tactics, and eventually put major Boer formations to flight (of course the war then become a massive guerilla war...but that is another story).

  Supposedly (and I'm just going by newsy articles), the Russians are going for an attritional phase with a fair amount of not particularly targeted high explosives landing in lots of places.  This solves a lot of problems: it keeps up pressure on the Ukrainians to negotiate (ie give the Russians whatever it is that they want if anyone could figure out what that might be other than total, unconditional surrender);
allows them to sit still and do a lot of damage; doesn't expose them to any more major problems with moving their forces around and lets them use all the various HE dispensing devices they have evolved over the years without any definite tally of successes and failures -- just a fair amount of stuff exploding in general in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2022, 03:08:34 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 02:39:08 PM

  Supposedly (and I'm just going by newsy articles), the Russians are going for an attritional phase with a fair amount of not particularly targeted high explosives landing in lots of places.  This solves a lot of problems: it keeps up pressure on the Ukrainians to negotiate (ie give the Russians whatever it is that they want if anyone could figure out what that might be other than total, unconditional surrender);
allows them to sit still and do a lot of damage; doesn't expose them to any more major problems with moving their forces around and lets them use all the various HE dispensing devices they have evolved over the years without any definite tally of successes and failures -- just a fair amount of stuff exploding in general in Ukraine.

Not to make too much of the Second Boer War analogy, but there is some historical resonance I believe. The major shift in "strategy" for the Brits was to stop set piece battles where the Boers were beating the snot out of them.* The Brits shifted to going after the Boer civilians. The Brits began to burn Boer farms and confiscate livestock to starve the Boers out. The Brits also put the Boer women and children in concentration camps (I think the Turks actually "invented" the concept of concentration camps, but Brits took it to new level during the Second Boer War). The camps were often run badly, and many Boer women and children starved or died of disease. The Brits became pariahs in many circles, and there was public pressure in the US and Europe to send direct military support to the Boers. You even had individual Americans and Europeans going off to join the Boer fighters because of what was seen as British atrocities. It took 2 1/2 years, but eventually the British beat the Boers down. The atrocities of burning farms and concentration camps were forgotten by the advent of WWI. 

In the Ukraine, the Russian version of this strategy is more brutal; attacking civilians directly, also destroying homes and infrastructure, while reportedly kidnapping civilians and carting them off to Russia.

*The Boers were equipped with up-to-date rifles; the Boer weapons had good range and a high rate of fire. As farmers growing up with firearms, most of the Boers were also good marksmen, and they usually fought from trenches or other cover. At the beginning of the Second Boer War the British still believed in marching in line formation and bayonet charges; as you can imagine it did not go well for the British.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2022, 03:08:34 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 02:39:08 PM

  Supposedly (and I'm just going by newsy articles), the Russians are going for an attritional phase with a fair amount of not particularly targeted high explosives landing in lots of places.  This solves a lot of problems: it keeps up pressure on the Ukrainians to negotiate (ie give the Russians whatever it is that they want if anyone could figure out what that might be other than total, unconditional surrender);
allows them to sit still and do a lot of damage; doesn't expose them to any more major problems with moving their forces around and lets them use all the various HE dispensing devices they have evolved over the years without any definite tally of successes and failures -- just a fair amount of stuff exploding in general in Ukraine.

Not to make too much of the Second Boer War analogy, but there is some historical resonance I believe. The major shift in "strategy" for the Brits was to stop set piece battles where the Boers were beating the snot out of them. The Brits shifted to going after the Boer civilians. The Brits began to burn Boer farms and confiscate livestock to starve the Boers out. The Brits also put the Boer women and children in concentration camps (I think the Turks actually "invented" the concept of concentration camps, but Brits took it to new level during the Second Boer War). The camps were often run badly, and many Boer women and children starved or died of disease. The Brits became pariahs in many circles, and there was public pressure in the US and Europe to send direct military support to the Boers. You even had individual Americans and Europeans going off to join the Boer fighters because of what was seen as British atrocities. 

In the Ukraine, the Russian version of this strategy is more brutal; attacking civilians directly, also destroying homes and infrastructure, while reportedly kidnapping civilians and carting them off to Russia.

  Not to dismiss any particular history or resonance, but generalized wrecking and slaughter have been traditional methods of war since the beginning of wars.  Hostage-taking and deliberate atrocities have
been something that has happened (with varying "success"...even the Sumerians had to give up their favorite mass impalement ceremonies due to their growning unpopularity with their enemies and the
Persians got a lot of early milage out of NOT taking hostages and so on unlike say the Assyrians or the Neo-Babylonians) for as long as there have been wars.  On the other hand, generalized wrecking and slaughter can be seen as a sign
that the wreckers and slaughterers are not doing very well with their more fundamental aims (such as taking ground or destroying their armed opponents).  Plus in Ukraine, it seems like the more effort the Russians waste on generalized dispensing of HE, the less they may be able to cope with whatever their actual armed opponents might be up to.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 22, 2022, 05:04:39 PM
"If we see Ukraine as a threat, we have the right to use force to ensure the threat is eradicated. We have entered into a conflict which has not only physical but also metaphysical significance. We are talking about human salvation, something much more important than politics."

This isn't Putin speaking but the Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill recently preaching to his 90 million followers :uglystupid2:.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 05:36:34 PM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 22, 2022, 04:50:57 AM
So - we are now expecting Russia to use biological and chemical weapons...and still no red line drawn by NATO or the UN?

Putin plays the tune, and NATO dances.


except that NATO is not "dancing" at all.  they dont need to.  if you want to be all gung ho and kill russians then get a plane ticket to Poland.
you might to read up on the concept of strategic ambiguity where it intersects with US nuclear policy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 05:38:40 PM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 22, 2022, 08:54:56 AM
Does no one else think he's going to cut Ukraine in half by troops joining from the south and the north and kind of putting the whole area under long term siege? Looks feasibly to me on paper.

they quite literally cant support the troops moving any farther then the already are.  so how are they going to cover all of that ground and link up with active Ukraine forces fighting them the whole way?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 05:57:12 PM
seems Ukrainians got back Makariv yesterday.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOepVODXsAYKUKF?format=jpg&name=large)

one of the many bits of information confirming this:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOeq2hgX0AkchU5?format=png&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 06:10:43 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 22, 2022, 08:10:07 AM
Welp, those people calling for a three-week invasion-supply limit (or less) have turned out to be correct! Time for sitzkrieg! Strictly speaking, Putin should have more shells for that than Guderian did (or whoever coined that term 3 weeks into Barbarossa.)

I was a little surprised to hear that Odessa had not in fact been taken. Not very surprised, but a little -- the basic news account seemed to be that it was held as a secured beachhead but nothing much was happening there. I'm glad for Ukraine that they may have to withdraw or be destroyed (shades of Gallipoli!)

since no russians have landed in Odessa, where are you getting your "basic" news from?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 06:20:44 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 22, 2022, 05:04:39 PM
"If we see Ukraine as a threat, we have the right to use force to ensure the threat is eradicated. We have entered into a conflict which has not only physical but also metaphysical significance. We are talking about human salvation, something much more important than politics."

This isn't Putin speaking but the Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill recently preaching to his 90 million followers :uglystupid2:.

  Wow.  That is so nutty.  So Ukraine is this metaphysical threat?  Just cuz it is the only country out of the various Chechenia and Georgia spots left to pick on?  You can imagine the Patriarch scratching his
head and saying Oh Moldovia is too far, we already trashed Chechenia and Georgia.  What else looks like a metaphystical problem?  Well not Poland (that's in NATO and they would blow your itchy
metaphysics away pretty fast), but hey, sure Ukraine is a metaphysical problem (because unlike most other places we've only attacked it once and it is not very well armed and has no allies).

  Wow.  That's metaphysics for you.  It's like kicking a poor sick old cat metaphysically around while ignoring the Tiger that is eyeing your antics and wondering about your moral vision.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 22, 2022, 06:53:14 PM
Metaphysical threat?? I didn't think it possible but the level of insanity is actually increasing out of Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 22, 2022, 06:56:07 PM
You're watching the beginning of their justification to use nukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 22, 2022, 07:02:01 PM
I fucking hope not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 22, 2022, 07:38:52 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 22, 2022, 07:02:01 PM
I fucking hope not.

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin spokesman Dmitri Peskov refused Tuesday to say his nation would not use nuclear weapons if it thought Russia could be destroyed.

Peskov said the conditions were consistent with the nations national security concept. "If there's a threat to the very existence of our country, it can be used in accordance with this concept," he stated in response to the question of whether Russia's use of nuclear weapons could be completely ruled out, according to the Russian government-controlled news site TASS."

Russian military doctrine envisions use of nuclear weapons in a first use scenario if it is losing a conventional conflict. Ukraine is exactly the scenario for which this was developed," said Rebekah Koffler, who is a former DIA intelligence officer who specialized in Russia.

"They fear U.S. intervention in Ukraine because they fear we are conventionally superior," she said. "And if they interpret our action as offensive rather than defensive, that is when the viability of Russian statehood would be threatened, in accordance with the Russian national security concept and military doctrine."

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 22, 2022, 07:44:40 PM
^I just watched that interview on CNN with Peskov a few minutes ago. I pray that the Russians are bluffing. But they weren't bluffing last month with the whole buildup...

...maybe they are considering using tactical nukes?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 07:49:49 PM
I would argue that when you get down to it there are no tactical nukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 07:55:50 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 22, 2022, 06:56:07 PM
You're watching the beginning of their justification to use nukes.

  Other than NATO bases in Poland, it's hard to see what they might want to nuke.  Trashing stuff with fairly large doses of HE seems to be working okay for them at the moment.  Plus, I suspect using even one itty-bitty nuke is going to get them tossed out of the UN and having lots of forces
turned against them.  I kind of doubt the nuke thing will happen even if the Russians feel it is metaphysically justified.  Seems like a nice deal with Zelensky might clear up the whole problem a lot more easily
than getting kicked out of the UN for nuking some place in western Ukraine (unless they nuke some town close to their own army, or Belarus if it goes unstable, which might not be the best idea).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 22, 2022, 07:58:45 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 07:49:49 PM
I would argue that when you get down to it there are no tactical nukes.

This may have been discussed on a previous page, but my understanding is that this is basically correct: Most (if not all) nuclear-armed militaries moved away from the idea of allowing nuclear clearance on a tactical level, explicitly the avoid the potential situation of some sergeant escalating a conflict into nuclear war with a heat-of-the-moment decision in the middle of a firefight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 08:21:41 PM
most did but not the soviets.
errr russians
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 22, 2022, 08:39:25 PM
^So then we're back to square one...Russians are feeling metaphysically threatened and because of that...they nuke Lviv?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 08:47:43 PM
if they use one, and Im still on the fence over that, I dont think it would be anywhere close to where their troops are.
the soviets would want a demonstration somewhere thats not close to NATO and not close to their own people but could have an impact on the
tactical/operational sphere of the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2022, 08:54:00 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 22, 2022, 08:39:25 PM
^So then we're back to square one...Russians are feeling metaphysically threatened and because of that...they nuke Lviv?

  That would be a reasonable target, I guess, though I don't see what it would get them that a few more weeks of blasting away at Eastern Ukraine plus a deal with Zelensky would not provide and with less risk.  I think once they have settled down to blowing things up until they get a deal, they'll get over the obsession with nuking things no matter how satisfying incinerating a lot of people
might be for the metaphysically-challenged Patriarch.  What do they get out of nuking that they won't get out of
a few more weeks of blowing things up and getting a deal?

  The risk of nuking something is just not worth it as far as I can see. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 09:10:52 PM
leveling a 1000 year old capital city doesnt fall under the catagory of demonstration.
I think it would be something 50 to 100 km behind the eastern front line that effects both the Donbass and Kharkov.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 22, 2022, 09:40:35 PM
I could see a guy like Putin who's paranoia's the size of Siberia, not able to capture the Capital of source of his metaphysical torment (Kiev), deciding instead to simply nuke the place to remove the threat. It doesn't have to make sense to be Putin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 10:45:57 PM
and thats where the scores of books Ive read on the subject matter can sometimes go off the rails.
hopefully there are people down the chain of command that can just say no.
hopefully there are other people/groups/forces that can stop it closer to the top.
ultimately people operate on enlightened self interest.  how many in putins circle dont want to die or be remembered as todays war criminal nazis.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 11:16:46 PM
the good news is that we're really looking at only 1200 warheads.  :bd:
6000ish total current soviet nuclear weapons.  1200 are on SSBNs and ICBMs.
not to worried about bombers, arty and lower stuff.
nice chart:
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Russian-Strategic-Nuclear-Forces-Under-New-START

not all SSBNs are able to launch overhaul, at pier, corruption.  I cant see why any part of their military would actually work as well as advertised.
the Pentagon expect 10% of our shit to fail at some point in the mission cycle and we spend MONEY!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 22, 2022, 11:24:49 PM
Some interesting footage of the Ukranian people/militia fighting back - this is reporting from the BBC
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2022, 12:05:57 AM
I see your video and raise you a tank duel.

QuoteVideo from the Azov regiment showing Ukrainian tanks firing on Russian positions reportedly from Mariupol. I could be wrong, but I don't remember seeing much snow in Mariupol recently.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1506293554951372803
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2022, 12:11:42 AM
just a grim thought but how much can some nuclear winter offset global warming?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 23, 2022, 12:44:23 AM
Ukraine Just Captured Part Of One Of Russia's Most Capable Electronic Warfare Systems

As one former DoD civil servant put it: "Ukraine now has a whole lot of political leverage to get MIG-29's and SAM's from NATO, whatever the De-escalation factions in DC wants", "The DoD, CIA and NSA have collective boners the size of a Trident submarine thinking about getting their hands on this bit of Russian kit".  https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1506310039363112961

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44879/ukraine-just-captured-part-of-one-of-russias-most-capable-electronic-warfare-systems

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2022, 04:40:10 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2022, 10:45:57 PM
and thats where the scores of books Ive read on the subject matter can sometimes go off the rails.
hopefully there are people down the chain of command that can just say no.
hopefully there are other people/groups/forces that can stop it closer to the top.
ultimately people operate on enlightened self interest.  how many in putins circle dont want to die or be remembered as todays war criminal nazis.

There are at least two instances in history where Russian military officers at the tactical level with authority to push the proverbial button, did not, despite great pressure, doctrinal responsibility, and.orders from ranking superiors to do so. These individuals arguably saved the world. So, yes...the common sense and personal courage of men at various points along the chain of command can make it can happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 05:51:24 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2022, 12:11:42 AM
just a grim thought but how much can some nuclear winter offset global warming?

  Wikipedia is strong with this one:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter

   The basic answer seems to be: more  winter than a lot of volcanos -- (but here's the good news) less than the impact of a giant Cretaceous (K-T boundary-style) ending asteroid

   The best sections there said:

  2019 saw the publication of two studies on nuclear winter that build on previous modeling and describe new scenarios of nuclear winter from smaller exchanges of nuclear weapons than have been previously simulated.

As in the 2007 study by Robock et al.,[17] a 2019 study by Coupe et al. models a scenario in which 150 Tg of black carbon is released into the atmosphere following an exchange of nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia where both countries use all of the nuclear weapons treaties permit them to.[134] This amount of black carbon far exceeds that which has been emitted in the atmosphere by all volcanic eruptions in the past 1,200 years but is less than the asteroid impact which caused a mass extinction event 66 million years ago.[134] Coupe et al. used the "whole atmosphere community climate model version 4" (WACCM4), which has a higher resolution and is more effective at simulating aerosols and stratospheric chemistry than the ModelE simulation used by Robock et al..[134]

The WACCM4 model simulates that black carbon molecules increase to ten times their normal size when they reach the stratosphere. ModelE did not account for this effect. This difference in black carbon particle size results in a greater optical depth in the WACCM4 model across the world for the first two years after the initial injection due to greater absorption of sunlight in the stratosphere.[134] This will have the effect of increasing stratospheric temperatures by 100K and result in ozone depletion that is slightly greater than ModelE predicted.[134] Another consequence of the larger particle size is accelerating the rate at which black carbon molecules fall out of the atmosphere; after ten years from the injection of black carbon into the atmosphere, WACCM4 predicts 2 Tg will remain, while ModelE predicted 19 Tg.[134]

The 2019 model and the 2007 model both predict significant temperature decreases across the globe, however the increased resolution and particle simulation in 2019 predict a greater temperature anomaly in the first six years after injection but a faster return to normal temperatures. Between a few months after the injection to the sixth year of anomaly, the WACCM4 predicts cooler global temperatures than ModelE, with temperatures more than 20K below normal leading to freezing temperatures during the summer months over much of the northern hemisphere leading to a 90% reduction in agricultural growing seasons in the midlatitudes, including the midwestern United States.[134] WACCM4 simulations also predict a 58% reduction in global annual precipitation from normal levels in years three and four after injection, a 10% higher reduction than predicted in ModelE.[134]

Toon et al. simulated a nuclear scenario in 2025 where India and Pakistan engage in a nuclear exchange in which 100 urban areas in Pakistan and 150 urban areas in India are attacked with nuclear weapons ranging from 15 kt to 100 kt and examined the effects of black carbon released into the atmosphere from airburst-only detonations.[5] The researchers modeled the atmospheric effects if all weapons were 15 kt, 50 kt, and 100 kt, providing a range where a nuclear exchange would likely fall into given the recent nuclear tests performed by both nations. The ranges provided are large because neither India or Pakistan is obligated to provide information on their nuclear arsenals, so their extent remains largely unknown.[5]

Toon et al. assume that either a firestorm or conflagration will occur after each detonation of the weapons, and the amount of black carbon inserted into the atmosphere from the two outcomes will be equivalent and of a profound extent;[5] in Hiroshima in 1945, it is predicted that the firestorm released 1,000 times more energy than was released during the nuclear explosion.[6] Such a large area being burned would release large amounts of black carbon into the atmosphere. The amount released ranges from 16.1 Tg if all weapons were 15 kt or less to 36.6 Tg for all 100 kt weapons.[5] For the 15 kt and 100kt range of weapons, the researchers modeled global precipitation reductions of 15% to 30%, temperature reductions between 4K and 8K, and ocean temperature decreases of 1K to 3K.[5] If all weapons used were 50 kt or more, Hadley cell circulation would be disrupted and cause a 50% decrease in precipitation in the American midwest. Net primary productivity (NPP) for oceans decreases from 10% to 20% for the 15 kt and 100 kt scenarios, respectively, while land NPP decreases between 15% and 30%; particularly affected are midlatitude agricultural regions in the United States and Europe, experiencing 25-50% reductions in NPP.[5] As predicted by other literature, once the black carbon is removed from the atmosphere after ten years, temperatures and NPP will return to normal.[5]

2021
Coupe et al. report the simulation of a El Niño effect lasting several years after six nuclear scenarios ranging from 5 to 150 Tg soot under the CESM-WACCM4 model. They term the change a "Nuclear Niño" and describe various changes in the ocean currents.[135]

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 06:38:40 AM
Was just going to post about the two men JH posted above. I hope there are more like them scattered around the Russian nuclear forces right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 23, 2022, 07:34:50 AM
Oh! -- well, huh. I kept hearing that a marine invasion of Odessa was ready to go, and somehow I heard that often enough to think it had gone. This is what I get for doing other things while the news is on, and not paying enough attention to Star's very nice map sources.  O0

Ironically, I'm sure I was focusing only on the places on those maps that Russia had pushed to; and since Odessa wasn't one of those places, I didn't correct my impression of it being invaded!  #:-)  :hide: L:-)

Getting too old to keep up...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 08:28:54 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 23, 2022, 07:34:50 AM
Oh! -- well, huh. I kept hearing that a marine invasion of Odessa was ready to go, and somehow I heard that often enough to think it had gone. This is what I get for doing other things while the news is on, and not paying enough attention to Star's very nice map sources.  O0

Ironically, I'm sure I was focusing only on the places on those maps that Russia had pushed to; and since Odessa wasn't one of those places, I didn't correct my impression of it being invaded!  #:-)  :hide: L:-)

Getting too old to keep up...

  I have the same problem.  I thought Sumy fell on day one or two, but maybe the Russians still haven't quite gotten there.  I think I'm roughly as confused  about several other regions BUT
I can specify LNR and DNR now so that is some kind of progress.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 23, 2022, 08:59:12 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 08:28:54 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 23, 2022, 07:34:50 AM
Oh! -- well, huh. I kept hearing that a marine invasion of Odessa was ready to go, and somehow I heard that often enough to think it had gone. This is what I get for doing other things while the news is on, and not paying enough attention to Star's very nice map sources.  O0

Ironically, I'm sure I was focusing only on the places on those maps that Russia had pushed to; and since Odessa wasn't one of those places, I didn't correct my impression of it being invaded!  #:-)  :hide: L:-)

Getting too old to keep up...

  I have the same problem.  I thought Sumy fell on day one or two, but maybe the Russians still haven't quite gotten there.  I think I'm roughly as confused  about several other regions BUT
I can specify LNR and DNR now so that is some kind of progress.

CNN, BBC and other sources are also reporting about successful Ukrainian counterattacks taking some smaller cities back.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10643119/Ukraine-war-Kyiv-launches-counter-attacks-Russian-invasion-stalled.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 09:03:06 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 23, 2022, 08:59:12 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 08:28:54 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 23, 2022, 07:34:50 AM
Oh! -- well, huh. I kept hearing that a marine invasion of Odessa was ready to go, and somehow I heard that often enough to think it had gone. This is what I get for doing other things while the news is on, and not paying enough attention to Star's very nice map sources.  O0

Ironically, I'm sure I was focusing only on the places on those maps that Russia had pushed to; and since Odessa wasn't one of those places, I didn't correct my impression of it being invaded!  #:-)  :hide: L:-)

Getting too old to keep up...

  I have the same problem.  I thought Sumy fell on day one or two, but maybe the Russians still haven't quite gotten there.  I think I'm roughly as confused  about several other regions BUT
I can specify LNR and DNR now so that is some kind of progress.

CNN, BBC and other sources are also reporting about successful Ukrainian counterattacks taking some smaller cities back.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10643119/Ukraine-war-Kyiv-launches-counter-attacks-Russian-invasion-stalled.html

  I hope this doesn't cause the kind of metaphysical itch that only a few nukes can scratch.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2022, 09:35:39 AM
Congressional report on Russian Nuclear Weapons from March 21, 2022

https://news.usni.org/2022/03/23/report-to-congress-on-russian-nuclear-weapons-4?fbclid=IwAR37FgFzbpfN3wYOyQsvcRM_Z02v8aipYf1v7oPmfz049x5UbCG3EFLpLxc (https://news.usni.org/2022/03/23/report-to-congress-on-russian-nuclear-weapons-4?fbclid=IwAR37FgFzbpfN3wYOyQsvcRM_Z02v8aipYf1v7oPmfz049x5UbCG3EFLpLxc)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 23, 2022, 09:36:15 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 09:03:06 AM
I hope this doesn't cause the kind of metaphysical itch that only a few nukes can scratch.

I hope for victory but fear the consequence it might bring.
For me, the only possible good way to end this is regime change in Russia.  Maybe 10.000 parents who lost a child might start it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 23, 2022, 10:47:07 AM
Only the Russian mafia can save the world now! -- we're living in a CW Arrowverse show...

More seriously, since Zelensky left himself no good room for help appeal as a neutral, his and Putin's best bet would be to work out a 'win' for each of them: officially cede those eastern republics (maybe also their new hinterlands), officially cede the Kuban (not all the Crimea), make a treaty not to join NATO or the EU perhaps since Putin is going to whine and complain about another NATO neighbor being a metaphysical threat to his regime's, uh, "Russia's" existence, as if NATO would use the Ukraine for invading him (which is how he thinks since he'd use the Ukraine that way).

Zelensky gets a political win for stopping the Russian juggernaut in a fashion very embarrassing for the Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on March 23, 2022, 10:47:31 AM
Situation Report
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2022, 10:58:05 AM
Some of this footage I have seen and some of it I haven't. I'm posting because you have to just love shirtless Rambo at 3:30.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 23, 2022, 11:19:14 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 22, 2022, 07:38:52 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 22, 2022, 07:02:01 PM
I fucking hope not.

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin spokesman Dmitri Peskov refused Tuesday to say his nation would not use nuclear weapons if it thought Russia could be destroyed.

Peskov said the conditions were consistent with the nations national security concept. "If there's a threat to the very existence of our country, it can be used in accordance with this concept," he stated in response to the question of whether Russia's use of nuclear weapons could be completely ruled out, according to the Russian government-controlled news site TASS."

Russian military doctrine envisions use of nuclear weapons in a first use scenario if it is losing a conventional conflict. Ukraine is exactly the scenario for which this was developed," said Rebekah Koffler, who is a former DIA intelligence officer who specialized in Russia.

"They fear U.S. intervention in Ukraine because they fear we are conventionally superior," she said. "And if they interpret our action as offensive rather than defensive, that is when the viability of Russian statehood would be threatened, in accordance with the Russian national security concept and military doctrine."


I believe that this line of thinking is also why they are not committing a better grade of troops and equipment to the fight in Ukraine. The need to hold back their a-game assets to counter any NATO intervention.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 23, 2022, 11:30:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2022, 12:11:42 AM
just a grim thought but how much can some nuclear winter offset global warming?
:o

Glad I can answer this one for you:

CO2 cycles last for several hundred years. Nuclear winter is for decades.

So a short term negation of warming, with a return to our normal slow upward climb in temperatures in a few decades.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on March 23, 2022, 11:38:28 AM
So, silver lining....?

???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 11:49:23 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on March 23, 2022, 11:38:28 AM
So, silver lining....?

???

  The significant reduction in anthropocentric activity due to various effects of thermonuclear war and unusually low temperatures might mitigate a bit the long-term effects of using fossil fuels, maybe?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 23, 2022, 11:56:16 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on March 23, 2022, 11:38:28 AM
So, silver lining....?

???

You'll not be around to bare the negative effects of climate change O0 !
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 23, 2022, 12:01:48 PM
This is what is left of Mariupol.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1506664864902754312/8tR77Lzy?format=jpg&name=small)

Video on CNN : https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/23/mariupol-devastation-video-ukraine-jc-orig.cnn/video/playlists/russia-ukraine-military-conflict/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on March 23, 2022, 12:07:40 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 23, 2022, 11:56:16 AM
You'll not be around to bare the negative effects of climate change O0 !

Fucking well hope so.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 12:18:00 PM
If there is a nuclear winter, killing off a lot of humans, wouldn't that offset a lot of the activity that leads to warming in the long run, for more than decades?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2022, 01:15:17 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 12:18:00 PM
If there is a nuclear winter, killing off a lot of humans, wouldn't that offset a lot of the activity that leads to warming in the long run, for more than decades?

i think that is Meng's point.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 01:21:53 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2022, 01:15:17 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 12:18:00 PM
If there is a nuclear winter, killing off a lot of humans, wouldn't that offset a lot of the activity that leads to warming in the long run, for more than decades?

i think that is Meng's point.

  Yeah, but I carefully wrote it in pseudo-scientific quasi-English in a poorly directed attempt at the humor of despair.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on March 23, 2022, 01:27:24 PM
Well, it's another first we can claim.

The only species on the planet that directly caused or contributed to their own extinction.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 23, 2022, 01:28:05 PM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/europes-nuclear-nightmare-isnt-even-close-to-over-as-an-undetonated-rocket-sits-in-kharkiv-nuclear-facility

Russian forces have not only looted and destroyed a laboratory used to monitor nuclear waste at Chernobyl, but an undetonated rocket is now primed to explode at any minute in a Kharkiv nuclear facility, Ukrainian regulators said Wednesday.

The country's State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate said personnel checking out the nuclear subcritical facility Neutron Source on Wednesday found an "object, preliminarily determined to be an unexploded MLRS 9K58 Smerch projectile," which it warns creates "a potential danger of a new explosion in the immediate vicinity of a nuclear installation."

While no damage was reported to parts of the facility that would immediately affect safety, regulators said it was impossible to disarm the rocket because of "constant battles in the area."

The facility has already repeatedly come under attack by Russian forces, the regulator said, and it came under shelling even as the inspection wrapped up.

"Please note that the [nuclear facility], like any other nuclear installation, is not designed for operation in combat conditions. The continuation of its bombing or shelling can lead to severe radiation consequences with contamination of nearby territories," the agency warned.

If conditions at Chernobyl are anything to go by, however, Russian forces are unlikely to heed the regulator's warnings.

Just a day before the discovery of the Smerch rocket, regulators said Russian troops who seized the power plant—the site of the world's worst nuclear disaster in 1986—had left it in shambles, with radiation monitors in the contaminated area around the plant no longer working and a crucial laboratory destroyed.

Perhaps more alarmingly, however, Ukrainian authorities said the laboratory that was looted contained "highly active samples and samples of radionuclides that are now in the hands of the enemy."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Toonces on March 23, 2022, 02:20:25 PM
Re: Russian use of nuclear weapons: I once had a reference that I've since lost that indicated Russia looks at nuclear weapons as part of a continuum on the spectrum of warfare escalation.  This is in contrast to us, where we look at nuclear and chemical weapons as a "red line" threshold of escalation.  Russian doctrine simply views them as another tool to get the job done.

Edit: this isn't the exact reference, but it's close enough.  Frightening stuff for sure...

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F2k8r3p1401as2e1q7k14dguu-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F06%2Fkofmanfink1.png&hash=c44c75a68fe610e0edc30f8b9de5d259f1b524c1)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 23, 2022, 02:42:44 PM
Given the role that fog of war is playing on both sides in this conflict--as well as for the spectators--I'd be surprised if we can accurately predict much.  After it's all over, I'm sure we'll be totally certain what the inevitable outcome had to be.  But that'll only be with the benefit of hindsight. 

All we know for sure is that we human beings are much crappier predictors than we pretend to be beforehand, or than we see ourselves to be after the fact.  If we end civilization as we know it, that'll put a huge dent in further carbon emissions.  But if we just send ourselves back to the technology level of the 1850s, you can kiss that carbon offset goodbye as soon as we get back antibiotics and coal-burning power.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 23, 2022, 02:47:03 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 01:21:53 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2022, 01:15:17 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 12:18:00 PM
If there is a nuclear winter, killing off a lot of humans, wouldn't that offset a lot of the activity that leads to warming in the long run, for more than decades?

i think that is Meng's point.

  Yeah, but I carefully wrote it in pseudo-scientific quasi-English in a poorly directed attempt at the humor of despair.

The funny/sad thing about all this is I believe it's true. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 23, 2022, 02:54:31 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on March 23, 2022, 11:38:28 AM
So, silver lining....?

???
You will become a trusted minion of our new overlords the Rad mutant Cockroaches
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 23, 2022, 03:15:57 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on March 23, 2022, 11:38:28 AM
So, silver lining....?

???

We'll be able to ride eternal on the Fury Road, shiny and chrome.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 04:14:16 PM
If we go by Toonces chart above, is the Ukraine war 'local' or 'regional'...approaching 'large scale'?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 23, 2022, 04:35:48 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 04:14:16 PM
If we go by Toonces chart above, is the Ukraine war 'local' or 'regional'...approaching 'large scale'?

It is a Special Military Operation and that is off the charts !
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 04:39:18 PM
Damn I forgot. I feel the world is teetering towards a large scale special military operation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2022, 04:53:12 PM
I find it pretty enlightening to read about Soviet and Russian nuclear weapons doctrine. From my reading of history, the United States had some maniacs dangerously close to the "red button" with significant influence and authority over launch. I think some of these cowboys played a pretty significant role in bringing the world close to the brink and in many instances, it was the Soviets who blinked, had a moment of clarity and caused a deescalation. For this, I think they deserve a lot of credit. 

It would be unfortunate if the trend of Russian rationality were to change.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2022, 05:06:59 PM
A very interesting article on the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons use in Ukraine...

https://mwi.usma.edu/would-russia-use-a-tactical-nuclear-weapon-in-ukraine/ (https://mwi.usma.edu/would-russia-use-a-tactical-nuclear-weapon-in-ukraine/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 05:11:30 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 04:14:16 PM
If we go by Toonces chart above, is the Ukraine war 'local' or 'regional'...approaching 'large scale'?

  The Estonians seem to think its destabilizing if Russia isn't completely defeated:

Top Estonian official says Russia must face "full defeat" in Ukraine
From CNN's Jennifer Hansler

A top Estonian official on Wednesday called on the international community to do more to ensure a "full defeat" of Russia in Ukraine, saying that "anything short" of that "would be destabilizing and escalatory."

"Frankly, I cannot see a way for the Russians to really win on the battlefield in the classical sense," Secretary General of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Jonatan Vseviov said in an interview with CNN in Washington, DC, ahead of the NATO Leaders Summit Thursday.

"The question is whether we will be able to actually defeat this aggression," he said. "If Putin comes away from this aggression with some gains, then he's likely to attempt this again -- against Ukraine, against others, he's likely to move ahead. So he needs to be absolutely defeated."
Vseviov also said NATO must prepare for the "new era" once the active phase of the war is over, calling for the military alliance to "build up military muscle in the east" to deny any future aggression.

He spoke of the need for NATO to make decisions about its defense posture for the "long haul," telling CNN that such discussions will take place this week but he expects major decisions will not be made until the NATO Summit in June, noting that such decisions require detailed military planning.

"It's clear that we cannot just continue with NATO with business as usual, with the same approach to defense and deterrence, NATO's relations to Russia that we've had since the annexation of Crimea," Vseviov said.

He said the alliance cannot take the risk that Russia "will miscalculate regarding collective defense," so a "small, tripwire force -- that international force that the Allies have had, for instance, in the Baltic states, is clearly no longer sufficient."

Vseviov, a former Estonian ambassador to the US, met with key officials at the White House, Defense and State Department during his trip to Washington.

He said he could not predict how long the war will last, but said he believes the Ukrainian military will be able to hold on "for a long time," but partner nations must continue to supply them with weaponry as the war wages on.

"The balance of military power clearly favors the aggressor, so we need to help the Ukrainians to hold on and do whatever is necessary to provide them with the relevant equipment and also humanitarian assistance," Vseviov said, noting that it's likely that "the level of brutality" unleashed by Russian forces against the civilian population "will go up dramatically" as the conflict continues.

Vseviov expressed skepticism about any diplomatic solutions proposed by Moscow.

"I think talk of this potential breakthrough in negotiations is a Russian game of smoke and mirrors to trap us or our to dissuade us -- it's a diplomatic trap to dissuade us from additional sanctions and additional military assistance," Vseviov said.

"I will not believe any deal before I see it actually implemented on the ground. I think the Russian strategy has not changed. It is still to destroy Ukraine and the idea of a sovereign Ukraine and then move on to fundamentally alter European security architecture," he added.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2022, 05:14:52 PM
^Great...Estonia is like your drunk little friend with the really big mouth who goes and picks a fight with one of the biggest guys in the bar and then expects you to do the fighting for him.  :uglystupid2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2022, 05:15:26 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 23, 2022, 10:47:07 AM
More seriously, since Zelensky left himself no good room for help appeal as a neutral, his and Putin's best bet would be to work out a 'win' for each of them: officially cede those eastern republics (maybe also their new hinterlands), officially cede the Kuban (not all the Crimea), make a treaty not to join NATO or the EU perhaps since Putin is going to whine and complain about another NATO neighbor being a metaphysical threat to his regime's, uh, "Russia's" existence, as if NATO would use the Ukraine for invading him (which is how he thinks since he'd use the Ukraine that way).

why would Zelensky what to appear to be neutral at this point?
why would he give up anything you mentioned?
what lense are you viewing this conflict through?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Toonces on March 23, 2022, 05:49:02 PM
That's a great article, Jarhead.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 23, 2022, 05:50:38 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2022, 05:14:52 PM
^Great...Estonia is like your drunk little friend with the really big mouth who goes and picks a fight with one of the biggest guys in the bar and then expects you to do the fighting for him.  :uglystupid2:

  It's a strategy, I guess.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2022, 06:56:35 PM
Ukrainian Farmers market  :bd:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOjDmJxX0AM3a81?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 08:31:49 PM
^They washed all the mud of them too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 23, 2022, 09:33:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2022, 05:15:26 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 23, 2022, 10:47:07 AM
More seriously, since Zelensky left himself no good room for help appeal as a neutral, his and Putin's best bet would be to work out a 'win' for each of them: officially cede those eastern republics (maybe also their new hinterlands), officially cede the Kuban (not all the Crimea), make a treaty not to join NATO or the EU perhaps since Putin is going to whine and complain about another NATO neighbor being a metaphysical threat to his regime's, uh, "Russia's" existence, as if NATO would use the Ukraine for invading him (which is how he thinks since he'd use the Ukraine that way).

why would Zelensky what to appear to be neutral at this point?
why would he give up anything you mentioned?
what lense are you viewing this conflict through?

1.) I didn't say he would want to appear to be neutral at this point. But I didn't word it well: I meant that Ukraine's insistence on neutrality previously, makes it harder for them to get help now. Surely that's not controversial; that's just an observation of what's happening and not happening as a result of their diplomatic appeals.

2.) Why would Ukraine give up areas the Russians have been occupying and controlling now for years? Realpolitik to de-escalate and stop the deaths and destruction. I even suggested he'd angle to get back the western Crimea from Russian withdrawal agreement. I kind of doubt Putin would agree to that -- so ponging back over to why would Putin give up anything he has taken at all, including in this invasion -- but that's what negotiation is for. Granted, negotiation with mafia thugs isn't going to be a great deal.

3.) From the lens that Putin is a mafia thug, and can be expected to act that way. I'm as sorry as anyone that this is true; and again I can't believe that "lens" would be controversial. But unless world powers are prepared to remove him and his group from power, or even only(!) to ally directly with the Ukraine as co-belligerants on the ground in defense -- which no one is, with his hand on practically all the nuclear triggers on Earth, directly and indirectly -- then Zelensky has to make hard choices about what's best for the people who elected him into power. One of those choices is to work out an offramp for each of them to have a meaningful win of some sort.

I'm sure not saying that because I love the super-corrupt government of the Ukraine, much less out of love for Putin's government. I don't want either of them to remain. But neither can I say I trust the Russian mafia to be able to stop Putin (even if they're willing by now), and who else in Russia is going to get that done? -- Putin's loyal corps of elite military units that he's keeping close to his vest? Also unlikely.

Either someone chooses to change the constraints Ukraine is operating under; or we hope the constraints get changed by accident somehow; or Zelensky uses the leverage his epic defense buys, to try for a result he and Putin can both accept.

Zelensky has power over only one of those options himself. And stalemate is only a potential stepping-stone to a win, not a win condition itself.

Even a negotiated settlement will look worse for Putin ultimately than Stalin's loss against Finland; because in Finland's case, Stalin at least demonstrated that the Red Army could be expected to achieve its goals (even if behind the original schedule) against odds deemed impossible by every other military on the planet, at any cost. Every other minor nation on his border without the Mannerheim Line took note, and behaved accordingly. Putin gets only what he already had, just more formally, and looks like a wimpy sort of bully in the process -- but those are legitimate win conditions for him, even if sucky ones, and he can spin a sucky win as a win by propaganda.

Sure, I'd like to see the Ukrainians (as a people) pull an Israeli crushing defense and smite their enveloping enemies so badly that there's nothing left for their enemies to conventionally threaten them with -- and incidentally, despite their problems I'm VASTLY much more on the side of the Israeli government than I am Ukraine's (largely due to some of my 'lenses', I admit. ;) ). But Putin's Russia isn't a loose Arab League; and his unconventional continuation options aren't theirs either.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 23, 2022, 10:40:21 PM
I think the Estonian envoy quoted above is speaking accurately.  Of course, it's easy for the Estonian envoy to say that, when most of the costs incurred for defeating Putin like that would be on Ukraine's dime.

I don't think that the West in general, or NATO in specific, can go back to the status quo that we had in January of 2022.  The Russian government and the US government signed a treaty in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.  Specific language excerpted from that agreement, per the Fount of All Wisdom, Wikipedia:

QuoteThe Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

Even ever after Russia signed one treaty, and even after Ukraine conceded all their nukes and didn't apply for NATO membership, it didn't do them any good.  If I were Zelenskiyi, I would much prefer to cede parts of Ukraine to Russia but have the freedom to join NATO.  Otherwise, you're just inviting Putin to rebuild his military more effectively and make sure he did the job right again in three to five years.

Even if Russia is able to ultimately conquer Kyiv and occupy much of Ukraine, the Russians have signed themselves up for a long, dirty bloodbath that won't end well for Russia or the Russian army.  Not only have the people of Ukraine made it clear that they will fight foreign invaders, but they did so BEFORE the Russians adopted a strategy of pounding their cities into rubble just to gain leverage in negotiations.

Russia will probably not pay as dearly for this aggression as the citizens of Ukraine already have paid for this.  But Russia will pay.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 24, 2022, 07:14:33 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 23, 2022, 08:31:49 PM
^They washed all the mud of them too.
From newsweek:

  Ukraine's armed forces have captured a "mysterious container" that could be part of one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare (EW) systems currently in service, according to a Twitter account that monitors weapons seized or destroyed during the conflict.

Twitter user @UAWeapons shared photos of a container and a military truck, identifying the first as likely to be the command post of a 1RL257 Krasukha-4 mobile EW system.


  The truck has party balloons on it so that's hard to figure out.  A party truck lost in a nightmare sleepwalking toward war?

Washington Post headline:

Top Russian military leaders repeatedly decline calls from U.S., prompting fears of 'sleepwalking into war'


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 24, 2022, 07:38:21 AM
People keep using that term "sleepwalking" in regard to this war, cough, special operation. I don't think it means what they think it means. ;)

Especially if the reference is to WW1. The famous "sleepwalking" metaphor applied to the years of setup BEFORE the AussieHuns decided they needed to root problems (primarily the Black Hand group) out of Serbian leadership by invading. After that, it wasn't sleepwalking.

I get that there are fears (which I agree are legit) that Great Powers could start shooting directly at each other over the Ukrainian invasion, and what that would lead to: that's a WW1 parallel (so far as it goes). But at that point, no one is sleepwalking into widening the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 24, 2022, 07:51:21 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 24, 2022, 07:38:21 AM
People keep using that term "sleepwalking" in regard to this war, cough, special operation. I don't think it means what they think it means. ;)

Especially if the reference is to WW1. The famous "sleepwalking" metaphor applied to the years of setup BEFORE the AussieHuns decided they needed to root problems (primarily the Black Hand group) out of Serbian leadership by invading. After that, it wasn't sleepwalking.

I get that there are fears (which I agree are legit) that Great Powers could start shooting directly at each other over the Ukrainian invasion, and what that would lead to: that's a WW1 parallel (so far as it goes). But at that point, no one is sleepwalking into widening the war.

  I think the "sleepwalking" thing is supposed to apply in this case to the fact that the Russians aren't "answering the phone" so to speak -- specifically the deconfliction line they used to answer
in order to avoid having forces accidently collide and start WWIII -- you know -- "by accident".  It may be the Russians would like some accidents where they can metaphysically shoot some nukes
and then say "oops!" sorry we thought you were going to existentially annihilate us.  Or maybe not.  Who knows why they suddenly can't answer the phone.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 24, 2022, 11:02:11 AM
I understood the Budapest Agreement was not a formal Treaty, just an agreement/understanding. Whichever, they got screwed and should've known better. Maybe a couple of nukes could have fallen off the truck on the way out of town and later been found in the back room of the Kiev Home Depot. Just...in...case.  :-X
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 24, 2022, 11:07:43 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 24, 2022, 11:02:11 AM
I understood the Budapest Agreement was not a formal Treaty, just an agreement/understanding. Whichever, they got screwed and should've known better. Maybe a couple of nukes could have fallen off the truck on the way out of town and later been found in the back room of the Kiev Home Depot. Just...in...case.  :-X

Would the world be any safer if that had happened?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 24, 2022, 11:24:02 AM
Wow:

Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 24, 2022, 11:47:34 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 24, 2022, 11:07:43 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 24, 2022, 11:02:11 AM
I understood the Budapest Agreement was not a formal Treaty, just an agreement/understanding. Whichever, they got screwed and should've known better. Maybe a couple of nukes could have fallen off the truck on the way out of town and later been found in the back room of the Kiev Home Depot. Just...in...case.  :-X

Would the world be any safer if that had happened?
Maybe, maybe not, but Ukraine would be. And the Russians might never have attacked if Ukraine still had nukes. If that logic seems flawed, then let's get rid of all OUR nukes and see if China, Russia, India etc al change their behavior towards us.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 24, 2022, 11:50:01 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 24, 2022, 11:24:02 AM
Wow:

Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine

But Putin says everything is going according to plan.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 12:28:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 24, 2022, 11:24:02 AM
Wow:

Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337

Interesting that none of the reports tell how it was hit; strike from Shangri-La I guess (points to anyone getting the obscure WWII reference).

Saw this note on the daily situation map:  "Burning Russian Landing Ship at Berdiansk visible in satellite imagery from earlier today. Also visible are the two other Ropucha class landing ships, one sailing in circles. Various tugs and smaller craft rushing around"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 24, 2022, 12:34:00 PM
Doolittle
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 24, 2022, 12:44:14 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 12:28:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 24, 2022, 11:24:02 AM
Wow:

Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337

Interesting that none of the reports tell how it was hit; strike from Shangri-La I guess (points to anyone getting the obscure WWII reference).

Saw this note on the daily situation map:  "Burning Russian Landing Ship at Berdiansk visible in satellite imagery from earlier today. Also visible are the two other Ropucha class landing ships, one sailing in circles. Various tugs and smaller craft rushing around"

I would imagine they used either a rocket or drone strike.

They got a Russian corvette earlier in the war with unguided rockets and it wasn't in port. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 01:21:05 PM
Quote from: solops on March 24, 2022, 12:34:00 PM
Doolittle

Bingo

During a press conference after the Doolittle raid, President Roosevelt was asked where the raid on Tokyo had come from; "our new secret base at Shangri-La" was the answer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 01:27:10 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 24, 2022, 12:44:14 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 12:28:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 24, 2022, 11:24:02 AM
Wow:

Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337

Interesting that none of the reports tell how it was hit; strike from Shangri-La I guess (points to anyone getting the obscure WWII reference).

Saw this note on the daily situation map:  "Burning Russian Landing Ship at Berdiansk visible in satellite imagery from earlier today. Also visible are the two other Ropucha class landing ships, one sailing in circles. Various tugs and smaller craft rushing around"

I would imagine they used either a rocket or drone strike.

They got a Russian corvette earlier in the war with unguided rockets and it wasn't in port.

Given the size of the explosion, and that it happened in port, I was thinking truck bomb....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 24, 2022, 01:36:54 PM
It's been a rough week for Putin huh? And it's only Thursday.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 24, 2022, 01:37:14 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 01:27:10 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 24, 2022, 12:44:14 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 12:28:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 24, 2022, 11:24:02 AM
Wow:

Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337

Interesting that none of the reports tell how it was hit; strike from Shangri-La I guess (points to anyone getting the obscure WWII reference).

Saw this note on the daily situation map:  "Burning Russian Landing Ship at Berdiansk visible in satellite imagery from earlier today. Also visible are the two other Ropucha class landing ships, one sailing in circles. Various tugs and smaller craft rushing around"

I would imagine they used either a rocket or drone strike.

They got a Russian corvette earlier in the war with unguided rockets and it wasn't in port.

Given the size of the explosion, and that it happened in port, I was thinking truck bomb....

IMHO, those are secondary explosions from the cargo/fuel the ship was carrying. Based on the smoke plume, the fire had been going on for awhile, so the explosions aren't the initial blast
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 24, 2022, 02:02:51 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1506453063267241994

Fascinating claimed intercepted call from Russian officer near Mykolaiv to superiors in Russia. He says:

This is worse than Chechnya

50% of troops have frostbite

They can't evacuate the dead

Don't have enough tents

RU plane dropped a bomb on their own position

One column was hit with Grad rockets. Can't even figure out if it was friendly fire

Medics only have bandages. Can't help with frostbite

No hot stove

Digging trenched to sleep in

Commander of 49th CAA told troops on 4th day that war will be over in hours

Troops don't have body armor. When one complained to commander was told "son, be strong"

This special operation is a "madhouse"

Being told not to destroy buildings - it's insanity. Unless we destroy everything and turn into dirt along with the civilians, nothing can happen

TV says we are moving forward. But we just drive through without clearing up villages. And now we have to defend from all sides because they are attacking everywhere

They thought this would be like a parade ride

Our task was to get to Mykolaiv. And we are sitting here
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 03:04:26 PM
Ex-American marine now fighting for Ukraine gives impressions of combat. Very intense. Russians are unimaginative and inflexible. Tanks are toast.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-three-to-one-advantage/ar-AAVs68c?ocid=msedgntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-three-to-one-advantage/ar-AAVs68c?ocid=msedgntp)


Also, some interesting thoughts from Nicholas Moran from "Inside the Chieftain's Hatch" on what the videos coming out of Ukraine don't tell us. His first point is that in his opinion, the day of the tank is not over...granted the man is an ex-US Armor Company Commander...so he is biased.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9pVEP0AzZ4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9pVEP0AzZ4)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 03:06:16 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 24, 2022, 01:37:14 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 01:27:10 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on March 24, 2022, 12:44:14 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 12:28:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 24, 2022, 11:24:02 AM
Wow:

Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337

Interesting that none of the reports tell how it was hit; strike from Shangri-La I guess (points to anyone getting the obscure WWII reference).

Saw this note on the daily situation map:  "Burning Russian Landing Ship at Berdiansk visible in satellite imagery from earlier today. Also visible are the two other Ropucha class landing ships, one sailing in circles. Various tugs and smaller craft rushing around"


I would imagine they used either a rocket or drone strike.

They got a Russian corvette earlier in the war with unguided rockets and it wasn't in port.

Given the size of the explosion, and that it happened in port, I was thinking truck bomb....

IMHO, those are secondary explosions from the cargo/fuel the ship was carrying. Based on the smoke plume, the fire had been going on for awhile, so the explosions aren't the initial blast

Good point...I missed that...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 24, 2022, 03:48:50 PM
Snake Island sailors freed in prisoner exchange (https://www.npr.org/2022/03/24/1088593653/snake-island-sailors-freed-prisoner-swap).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 24, 2022, 04:34:02 PM
too good to pass up

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOo4ZJpWYAAuNTg?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 24, 2022, 04:44:31 PM
And only a 78% thumbs up rating.

'Needs more tractors.'  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 24, 2022, 05:40:46 PM
This is a 2019 article on Nato/Russian arty.

The key to todays conflict is that Ukraine is pushing the Russians back more than 40km from Kyiv.  If they achieve this that means the Russians in order to put their doctrine of shelling cities will need to use more missiles and aircraft launched bombs.  These are then countered by the air systems that NATO is supplying and the sanctions crippling the ability to replenish expensive missiles as their stocks are drawn down.

The logistics game of chess continues!

https://finabel.org/long-live-the-king-of-battle-the-return-to-centrality-of-artillery-in-warfare-and-its-consequences-on-the-military-balance-in-europe/

(https://i0.wp.com/finabel.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Picture-1-5.png?w=939&ssl=1)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOnjH7GaIAUemik?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2022, 06:03:37 PM
from what Ive read the ships were hit with missiles.  the great news is that its not 1 but 2 ships sunk.  the 2nd left pierside on fire and seems to have sunk.   :bd:  rt was reporting missile strikes on the port a few days ago so the Ukrainians just kept at it until they hit something.  theres also russian drone footage a few days old showing the ship unloading BTRs and munitions.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 24, 2022, 06:18:01 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2022, 06:03:37 PM
from what Ive read the ships were hit with missiles.  the great news is that its not 1 but 2 ships sunk.  the 2nd left pierside on fire and seems to have sunk.   :bd:  rt was reporting missile strikes on the port a few days ago so the Ukrainians just kept at it until they hit something.  theres also russian drone footage a few days old showing the ship unloading BTRs and munitions.

I believe they used that footage to estimate the ships location.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 24, 2022, 06:22:01 PM
Still applies
(https://miro.medium.com/max/578/1*AKEhcn8FIJJoreEOd6cN5Q.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2022, 06:23:19 PM
it also seems to be a main source of russian logistic support so just going for the docks regardless is a good idea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2022, 06:47:55 PM
some UKAF backround.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-air-force-pilots-fight-russia/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 24, 2022, 07:06:42 PM
I saw this on a tweet - thought it was worth replicating.

POV - You are a Russian tanker.
Your T72 is out of fuel
The snow is picking up
Night time approaches
.........You hear tractors

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQE943uI2yIdDlHHz5y6pHX-hVRL-asCb_P6Q&usqp=CAU)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 24, 2022, 07:10:32 PM
Well, in silver linings for this, I may be getting my first ancillary DoD job out of this as a supplement to my main work.

Might not be able to post in this thread any longer. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 24, 2022, 07:52:30 PM
And just like that, the Grogheads get an inside man.   :coolsmiley:

(I kid, DoD background checkers, I kid...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2022, 09:08:13 PM
Deep throat  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2022, 09:30:35 PM
nice footage of the dock strike.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1506969662789140480
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2022, 11:24:56 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2022, 09:30:35 PM
nice footage of the dock strike.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1506969662789140480

I'm sure the Taiwanese are taking copious notes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 25, 2022, 01:48:57 AM
Just as a historical aside, this was a PR stunt dreamed up by the US Department of Navy in early 1942 because they were doing such a crappy job of slowing down the half-dozen or so German U-boats operating off America's East Coast in any given month. 

While it's possible that loose lips did sink ships in WW II, when the USN coined this slogan (at the height of their asses kicked in the first six months of the war), they did not possess any intelligence suggesting that any Allied ships were lost due to spies relaying info to U-boats.  Truth of the matter was, those U-boats were cruising in such a target rich environment, they didn't need to pursue any single ship.

A great book on the topic is Operation Drumbeat, by Michael Gannon.

Quote from: Con on March 24, 2022, 06:22:01 PM
Still applies
(https://miro.medium.com/max/578/1*AKEhcn8FIJJoreEOd6cN5Q.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 25, 2022, 01:03:39 PM
Russian Brigade Commander reportedly intentionally run over by his own troops...  fragging by another name...

Bad news for Russia if true...

https://www.dailywire.com/news/russian-brigade-commander-killed-deliberately-by-his-own-troops-over-staggering-losses-in-ukraine-report (https://www.dailywire.com/news/russian-brigade-commander-killed-deliberately-by-his-own-troops-over-staggering-losses-in-ukraine-report)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 25, 2022, 01:21:34 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 25, 2022, 01:03:39 PM
Russian Brigade Commander reportedly intentionally run over by his own troops...  fragging by another name...

Bad news for Russia if true...

https://www.dailywire.com/news/russian-brigade-commander-killed-deliberately-by-his-own-troops-over-staggering-losses-in-ukraine-report (https://www.dailywire.com/news/russian-brigade-commander-killed-deliberately-by-his-own-troops-over-staggering-losses-in-ukraine-report)

Brings to mind this little gem:
(https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QuIgBskxzyI/VacVFkHUH4I/AAAAAAAABNk/fp2q77n6B3M/s1600/twilightzone%2Bniedermeyer.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 25, 2022, 02:23:59 PM
Signs of cracks in the Russian state run TV narrative?

....Political analyst Vitaly Tretyakov concluded: "The situation is serious... We have to admit that there was no psychological breakthrough in our operation, where the opposing side would lose their will to resist... The resistance from the Ukrainian side is neither stopping nor weakening." Tretyakov pointed out that despite the Russian media's attempted depictions of Zelensky as a drug addict, he is being perceived by the West as a leader of a country that has been attacked. He also questioned the wisdom of "liberating" Ukrainians who don't seem to want to be "liberated" and vehemently hate seeing the Russian troops on their territory. Tretyakov noted the unwavering determination of Western leaders to "squeeze" the Russian economy by imposing punishing sanctions.

Host, Olga Skabeeva, was visibly rattled by the depressing realities brought to the forefront by Tretyakov's comments. She sniped: "So you sprinkled the ashes all over your head, but what do we do now? What's our plan? Everything is bad, nothing is working out?" Skabeeva angrily questioned whether Tretyakov had anything to offer aside from criticism. After he pointed out that societies tend to get tired of any military campaigns rather quickly, Skabeeva argued: "If you're tired, that doesn't mean that everyone else is tired." Visibly angered, she repeatedly shouted at Tretyakov, questioning his support for the Russian military and telling the pundit that his commentary "has a smell of something untoward."


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-tv-descends-into-screaming-match-over-putin-s-war-failures/ar-AAVuWLa?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=eff9bdb34d1744deb203c3cc8267b740 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-tv-descends-into-screaming-match-over-putin-s-war-failures/ar-AAVuWLa?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=eff9bdb34d1744deb203c3cc8267b740)


Further cracks in Russian resolve:

Russia scaling back war aims to focus on Donbass region and not western Ukraine. Russian Defense Ministry says "Phase One" of the "Special Military Operation" is complete.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-defense-ministry-says-it-will-focus-on-liberating-the-donbas-region-in-eastern-ukraine-as-invading-troops-remain-stalled/ar-AAVuG7M?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9b264a35df54458ea67f2c78ab31ca1a (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-defense-ministry-says-it-will-focus-on-liberating-the-donbas-region-in-eastern-ukraine-as-invading-troops-remain-stalled/ar-AAVuG7M?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9b264a35df54458ea67f2c78ab31ca1a)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 25, 2022, 02:43:42 PM
and another Russian general...number 7

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-claims-it-killed-one-of-russia-s-top-generals-in-ukraine/ar-AAVucCg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ca61c523ca3245d2ae31190f31ec2b49 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-claims-it-killed-one-of-russia-s-top-generals-in-ukraine/ar-AAVucCg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ca61c523ca3245d2ae31190f31ec2b49)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 25, 2022, 03:15:35 PM
^They are probably looking forward to death at this point.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 25, 2022, 03:18:55 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 25, 2022, 02:23:59 PM
Signs of cracks in the Russian state run TV narrative?

....Political analyst Vitaly Tretyakov concluded: "The situation is serious... We have to admit that there was no psychological breakthrough in our operation, where the opposing side would lose their will to resist... The resistance from the Ukrainian side is neither stopping nor weakening." Tretyakov pointed out that despite the Russian media's attempted depictions of Zelensky as a drug addict, he is being perceived by the West as a leader of a country that has been attacked. He also questioned the wisdom of "liberating" Ukrainians who don't seem to want to be "liberated" and vehemently hate seeing the Russian troops on their territory. Tretyakov noted the unwavering determination of Western leaders to "squeeze" the Russian economy by imposing punishing sanctions.

Host, Olga Skabeeva, was visibly rattled by the depressing realities brought to the forefront by Tretyakov's comments. She sniped: "So you sprinkled the ashes all over your head, but what do we do now? What's our plan? Everything is bad, nothing is working out?" Skabeeva angrily questioned whether Tretyakov had anything to offer aside from criticism. After he pointed out that societies tend to get tired of any military campaigns rather quickly, Skabeeva argued: "If you're tired, that doesn't mean that everyone else is tired." Visibly angered, she repeatedly shouted at Tretyakov, questioning his support for the Russian military and telling the pundit that his commentary "has a smell of something untoward."


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-tv-descends-into-screaming-match-over-putin-s-war-failures/ar-AAVuWLa?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=eff9bdb34d1744deb203c3cc8267b740 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-tv-descends-into-screaming-match-over-putin-s-war-failures/ar-AAVuWLa?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=eff9bdb34d1744deb203c3cc8267b740)


Further cracks in Russian resolve:

Russia scaling back war aims to focus on Donbass region and not western Ukraine. Russian Defense Ministry says "Phase One" of the "Special Military Operation" is complete.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-defense-ministry-says-it-will-focus-on-liberating-the-donbas-region-in-eastern-ukraine-as-invading-troops-remain-stalled/ar-AAVuG7M?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9b264a35df54458ea67f2c78ab31ca1a (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-defense-ministry-says-it-will-focus-on-liberating-the-donbas-region-in-eastern-ukraine-as-invading-troops-remain-stalled/ar-AAVuG7M?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9b264a35df54458ea67f2c78ab31ca1a)

  This just gets stranger and stranger.  Okay, at first glance the Donbas as a reasonable target makes better sense than overrunning all of Ukraine, but this still leaves the huge problem that
the war has no workable endpoint if Ukraine can't get some guarantees that the Russians won't just attack them again next time they get a metaphysical itch.  An obvious deal would be:
Russia gets some territory in the Donbas and Ukraine joins NATO.  Of course, that's never going to happen so switching targets to no more than occupying the Donbas actually probably will only
prolong the war as Russia pulverizes the Donbas -- because -- well now it seems that is what they want and that will apparently satisfy the current metaphysical itchiness.  Of course it might take
years to sufficiently level everything in the Donbas, but at least it is a smaller target area.

  ooops... I guess it might take 40 years according to Russian estimates:

Today, it can be clearly predicted that we will have to remain in Ukraine for 30-40 years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 25, 2022, 03:24:29 PM
I'm shaking my head over this whole thing. 

So the whole invasion of Ukraine thing was supposed to be over in just a few days because you know, Russian army vs. Ukraine army no contest right?

Now their throwing hissy fits on Russian TV about the embarrassing failure of Ukraine.
Russian top military commanders dying left and right.
Russian vehicles blowing up left and right.
Russian ships sinking left and right.

One would think Russia would just quit while they're ahead.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 25, 2022, 04:20:58 PM
Russia has put forward the narrative that 'Ukraine is not a thing...just a part of Russia'. And this narrative has been repeated in certain circles in the West.

The "Great War" team has put together a very good mini-documentary on the history of Ukraine as a sovereign nation. Anyone who has seen any of the "Great War" team's stuff, knows these guys are pretty even-keeled.

The bottom-line is that Ukraine was an independent sovereign nation-state after the Russian Empire broke apart over 100 years ago. The Russian Bolshevik armies forcibly took it over after the 1920 Russo-Polish War.

The video is a little long and the history itself meanders, but worth the time if you have interest. As a side-note, I highly recommend the Great War channel...some really good stuff there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Gwuu7TXPwI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Gwuu7TXPwI)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 25, 2022, 04:39:21 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2022, 12:07:05 PM
and heres some good news for a change.
the theater that the russians bombed yesterday, while pretty much totally destroyed, served its function as a bomb shelter pretty damn well.
the civilians that were sheltered there survived and are being rescued now as they clear debris from the entrances.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/25/mariupol-theatre-bombing-killed-300-ukrainian-officials-say
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/25/europe/ukraine-mariupol-theater-dead-intl/index.html

About 300 people are believed to have died in a Russian attack on a theater in Mariupol nine days ago, the city council has said, citing eyewitness reports.


War doesn't give you much good news.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 25, 2022, 05:22:32 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on March 23, 2022, 11:38:28 AM
So, silver lining....?

???

for a few decades anyway

see that's the main causal issue; we are releasing CO2 that was trapped and captured millions of years ago by plants and stored as coal and oil. We are now releasing that captured CO2 at very high rates, far faster than mother nature can store it away (takes on average a couple hundred years for it to be stored away) so the CO2 in the atmosphere is going up...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 25, 2022, 06:08:09 PM
Homemade combat drone bombs a Russian position.  Now the world's second-largest military is getting dunked on by some STEM kids with cardboard, tape, and gatorade bottles.   :dreamer:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tnx9x0/homemade_combat_drone_works_on_russian_positions/


Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 25, 2022, 04:20:58 PM
Russia has put forward the narrative that 'Ukraine is not a thing...just a part of Russia'. And this narrative has been repeated in certain circles in the West.

The "Great War" team has put together a very good mini-documentary on the history of Ukraine as a sovereign nation. Anyone who has seen any of the "Great War" team's stuff, knows these guys are pretty even-keeled.

The bottom-line is that Ukraine was an independent sovereign nation-state after the Russian Empire broke apart over 100 years ago. The Russian Bolshevik armies forcibly took it over after the 1920 Russo-Polish War.

The video is a little long and the history itself meanders, but worth the time if you have interest. As a side-note, I highly recommend the Great War channel...some really good stuff there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Gwuu7TXPwI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Gwuu7TXPwI)

Great link, thanks for posting
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on March 25, 2022, 07:38:02 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 25, 2022, 04:20:58 PM
Russia has put forward the narrative that 'Ukraine is not a thing...just a part of Russia'. And this narrative has been repeated in certain circles in the West.

The "Great War" team has put together a very good mini-documentary on the history of Ukraine as a sovereign nation. Anyone who has seen any of the "Great War" team's stuff, knows these guys are pretty even-keeled.

The bottom-line is that Ukraine was an independent sovereign nation-state after the Russian Empire broke apart over 100 years ago. The Russian Bolshevik armies forcibly took it over after the 1920 Russo-Polish War.

The video is a little long and the history itself meanders, but worth the time if you have interest. As a side-note, I highly recommend the Great War channel...some really good stuff there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Gwuu7TXPwI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Gwuu7TXPwI)

Seconded!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 25, 2022, 07:50:19 PM
Thirded! The Great War channel on YouTube is excellent, one of my favorites.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 25, 2022, 09:22:17 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 24, 2022, 07:52:30 PM
And just like that, the Grogheads get an inside man.   :coolsmiley:

(I kid, DoD background checkers, I kid...)

Probably nothing so significant.  I'll mostly be researching/writing for a guy that's the real inside man.  He's been my source for some of the stuff I posted here that wasn't too much info, and he's the reason I've largely been bullish on the Ukrainians successes.

He's a bit chuffed right now because he's one of the few guys that predicted the current state of the war, and I was one of his sounding boards on that.

I will need to get a Security Clearance though so I guess I should keep my nose clean(er).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 25, 2022, 10:43:48 PM
Some of you guys may know Perun from his informative Dominions 5 videos.  Well, looks like he's shifted over to discussing the Ukraine war.  In this video, he presents as fairly compelling argument debunking the "Russia is just sending in their conscripts/outdated equipment" idea, relying purely on data gathered from confirmed photographs of destroyed equipment.  I thought he did a pretty good job with it.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 25, 2022, 10:50:06 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 25, 2022, 10:43:48 PM
Some of you guys may know Perun from his informative Dominions 5 videos.  Well, looks like he's shifted over to discussing the Ukraine war.  In this video, he presents as fairly compelling argument debunking the "Russia is just sending in their conscripts/outdated equipment" idea, relying purely on data gathered from confirmed photographs of destroyed equipment.  I thought he did a pretty good job with it.


I'm going to watch that.  This is also a good video, this guy is a history dude and lots of good insights..


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 26, 2022, 02:03:31 PM
(https://i.redd.it/b8fz9a6awqp81.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 26, 2022, 02:05:46 PM
this is literally a map right out of Close Combat.
Russia has deployed tanks and armor in the treelines south of Izyum, 70 miles from Kharkiv.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOy2VXoWYAY0072?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 26, 2022, 03:46:17 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 25, 2022, 03:18:55 PM
  This just gets stranger and stranger.  Okay, at first glance the Donbas as a reasonable target makes better sense than overrunning all of Ukraine, but this still leaves the huge problem that
the war has no workable endpoint if Ukraine can't get some guarantees that the Russians won't just attack them again next time they get a metaphysical itch.  An obvious deal would be:
Russia gets some territory in the Donbas and Ukraine joins NATO.  Of course, that's never going to happen so switching targets to no more than occupying the Donbas actually probably will only
prolong the war as Russia pulverizes the Donbas -- because -- well now it seems that is what they want and that will apparently satisfy the current metaphysical itchiness.  Of course it might take
years to sufficiently level everything in the Donbas, but at least it is a smaller target area.

  ooops... I guess it might take 40 years according to Russian estimates:

Today, it can be clearly predicted that we will have to remain in Ukraine for 30-40 years.

Ability to survive sanctions aside, the Russians may be able to just dig in, sit tight and lob missiles, dumb bombs and arty at the Ukrainians for years.

But the Ukrainians have the bit in their teeth, and maybe they can actually kick the Russians out of prepared defenses.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 26, 2022, 04:06:02 PM
the soviets absolutely cannot sped years doing that.  they simply dont have the money even without sanctions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 26, 2022, 04:24:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 26, 2022, 04:06:02 PM
the soviets

I see what you did there!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 26, 2022, 04:45:28 PM
The Red Dawn meme is pretty hilarious.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 28, 2022, 10:41:24 AM
So, it sounds like NATO and the US are getting a treasure trove of hardware intelligence from this latest conflict.  That, or the Ukrainians are really good at Photoshopping things on social media to make it look like they're capturing a lot of stuff.

The Ukrainians now have intact copies of new Russian missile systems, the Command Module for the Krasukh-4 EW platform, the Pancsyr-S1 air defense vehicle, they've captured a very recent release of the Russian self-propelled 203-mm howitzer, etc.  I don't know how many of these platforms the West had already, but I have to assume that some of them are new. 

I wonder, when the Ukrainians capture them, what happens to them?  The US has to have the techs to make sense of them and relay info back to NATO allies and the Ukrainians.  It's not like the Ukrainians would just share these with the West out of the goodness of their hearts. 

If the Ukrainians are sharing captured Russian hardware with the West, it's unthinkable that there hasn't been some quid pro quo that's been agreed to with the Ukrainians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 28, 2022, 10:47:23 AM
Well, the west has given them many millions of dollars in gear so far so it's not like it's an uncompensated gift.  I do think the west could sneak a few MIG-29's to them as replacements that may not be noticed as a giant leap in capability.  Or maybe just an exchange of recently maintained ones for their worn out ones. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 28, 2022, 12:42:08 PM
Yeah, my understanding is that the three primary snags in just flying them into Ukrainian air space are that


I think the obvious answer to #2 is to have the planes fly from NATO airspace over the Black Sea and then enter Ukraine from that neutral air space (seems much easier than trying to ship them in, disassembled, on trains, and then reassemble them there).  I don't know enough to understand how truly complicated #1 and #3 are.

On a recent podcast I heard, one of the commentators was citing a 6:1 to 10:1 superiority in the volume of Russian sorties as compared to Ukrainian sorties.  The presence of robust (and perhaps improving) AA platforms on the Ukrainian side--along with a likely lack of training for diverse mission types among Russian pilots--seem to have neutralized Russian close air support.  So now the Russians are just launching artillery, rockets, and stand-off cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities and occasionally military targets (the latter particularly in the Western Ukraine, near the Polish border).

I do wonder whether Ukraine's military needs as they seek to take the offensive might differ from what they've been doing to date.  It's clear that their small unit tactics are giving the Russians fits, especially around Kyiv.  But, if they want to start saving the lives of Ukrainian civilians, I'm wondering how they might go after
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 28, 2022, 03:23:08 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 26, 2022, 03:46:17 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 25, 2022, 03:18:55 PM
  This just gets stranger and stranger.  Okay, at first glance the Donbas as a reasonable target makes better sense than overrunning all of Ukraine, but this still leaves the huge problem that
the war has no workable endpoint if Ukraine can't get some guarantees that the Russians won't just attack them again next time they get a metaphysical itch.  An obvious deal would be:
Russia gets some territory in the Donbas and Ukraine joins NATO.  Of course, that's never going to happen so switching targets to no more than occupying the Donbas actually probably will only
prolong the war as Russia pulverizes the Donbas -- because -- well now it seems that is what they want and that will apparently satisfy the current metaphysical itchiness.  Of course it might take
years to sufficiently level everything in the Donbas, but at least it is a smaller target area.

  ooops... I guess it might take 40 years according to Russian estimates:

Today, it can be clearly predicted that we will have to remain in Ukraine for 30-40 years.

Ability to survive sanctions aside, the Russians may be able to just dig in, sit tight and lob missiles, dumb bombs and arty at the Ukrainians for years.

But the Ukrainians have the bit in their teeth, and maybe they can actually kick the Russians out of prepared defenses.

  The neutrality thing (but with guarantors) :

What does Zelensky mean when he talks about neutrality?
From CNN's Nathan Hodge

In an interview Sunday with Russian journalists, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke at length about an important point in potential peace negotiations: the possibility of neutrality for Ukraine.

"We are ready to accept this," Zelensky said. "This is the most important point." 

Zelensky and Ukrainian officials have long said they are willing to talk about neutrality for Ukraine if NATO is not ready to accept the country as a member of the alliance.

That, in theory, would meet one of the demands of Russian President Vladimir Putin: that Ukraine gives up its NATO aspirations.

But it's not as simple as that. Zelensky has also made it clear that Ukraine would reject "neutrality" without legally binding security guarantees. And with Ukraine under invasion by Russia, the Ukrainian leader has said he isn't interested in empty promises.

"I'm interested in making sure it's not just another piece of paper a la the Budapest Memorandum," he said.

Zelensky was referring to a little-remembered moment in post-Cold War history. With the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine – on paper at least – came into possession of the world's third-largest nuclear stockpile.

Russia did maintain operational control of those weapons, but Ukraine signed an agreement in 1994 to give up the nuclear weapons stationed on its territory in exchange for security guarantees, including the protection of the territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine. That's something Russia, a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum, decisively trampled on with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in February.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Zelensky, has said that security guarantees must, in essence, include a commitment from guarantors to assist Ukraine in the event of aggression. 

And it's important to add that neutrality – of a sort that Putin might find palatable – is not something Zelensky can simply offer up. Aspiration to NATO membership is enshrined in Ukraine's constitution.

That's where Zelensky gave Russian interviewers a bit of a lesson in Ukraine's democratic processes. Security guarantees, he explained, would have to be followed by a referendum in Ukraine. 

"Why? Because we have a law about referendums," Zelensky said. "We have passed it. Changes of this or that status... And security guarantees presuppose constitutional changes. You understand, don't you? Constitutional changes."

And therein lies the difference. Russia has a political system built around one man — Putin — and Zelensky is the head of a democratic state. Even if neutrality is on the negotiating table, the Ukrainian people will have to have their say. 


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 28, 2022, 03:24:45 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 28, 2022, 03:23:08 PM


  And be realistic:

Turkish presidential spokesperson describes Russia's Donbas and Crimea demands as "not realistic"
From CNN's Zeena Saifi in Doha

Turkish presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin told CNN's Becky Anderson in an interview Sunday that Russia's demands to recognize the annexation of Crimea and the independence of the Donbas region is "very maximalist" and "not realistic".

"These are the red lines for the Ukrainians in the Crimea and Donbas, and rightly so, because they pertain directly to Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. We have not recognized the annexation of Crimea as, like the rest of the world, even China has not recognized the annexation of Crimea ...They [the Russians] should really come up with some other ideas," he told CNN on the sidelines of the Doha Forum.

Turkey has been offering to mediate between Russia and Ukraine and has hosted several meetings, including a meeting between Ukrainian and Russian Foreign Ministers on March 10. The next round of talks between the two sides will be held in the Turkish city of Istanbul on Tuesday.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan relayed a message to Moscow urging the negotiating teams to agree on the final sticking points in order to transition to a meeting at the leadership level between President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Vladimir Putin, Kalin told CNN.

"President Zelensky is ready to meet President Putin, it's President Putin who has said no so far. And our president has said, I'm ready to facilitate bringing the two of you together, in Turkey or somewhere else... We believe that it's only through that meeting, that this war will come to an end," he added.

The spokesperson emphasized that President Erdogan is keeping his line of communication open with both his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts to help achieve to end the war, especially with Russia. When asked if President Putin listens to Erdoğan, Kalin said the two have a "long-standing relationship."

"Certainly President Putin is listening to President Erdoğan and to his advice and to his ideas and suggestions. You can understand from their point of view that they don't trust most of the NATO countries, they don't want to talk to them anymore, right or wrong. But the reality is that someone has to talk to the Russian side, someone whom the Russians can also trust. Otherwise, this war can go on for months, for years, and the world cannot afford another prolonged war like that, and certainly, we cannot afford another Cold War."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2022, 05:57:16 PM
for those keeping count at home heres todays full list of verified equpiment losses for both sides:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 28, 2022, 08:59:57 PM
Listening to Victor Davis Hanson's recent 53 minute interview (Part 1 of at least 2!) on Epoch TV tonight. Behind a paywall unfortunately, though they're promoting it for a 14 day free trial. Part 2 arrives soon (within the trial time).

It's hard to summarize, as you might expect. ;) Also somewhat politically critical of the current US leadership, as you also might expect (meaning in a broadly cultural sense, not simply 'the administration has been doing this and that so Putin thinks he can do so-and-so safely enough', though there's a lot of that, too); so I'd be leery of posting a link to it. But for those who might be interested in VDH's latest assessments, now you know.  O:-)

And if not from Epoch Times, I'm sure he's making a tour around various places; I can recall another one on YT I saw a few weeks ago, though this interview is pretty up to date of course.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2022, 09:41:31 PM
of course you would be "critical of the current US leadership".
this is being handled far better then you realize or are capable of admitting.
also drop the bs halo emoji when you know your pathetically trying to stir up shit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2022, 09:48:35 PM
this piece of work....

Victor Davis Hanson

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Davis_Hanson

please read it all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 28, 2022, 10:17:48 PM
Jeez Star, do you have to shit in everybody's Wheaties? If you don't agree with something somebody says, just give it a pass for Christ's sake. Didn't your Momma ever tell you, 'Opinions are like a*# holes, everybody's got one'.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Hot lead and dirty talk! on March 28, 2022, 10:31:17 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2022, 09:41:31 PM
of course you would be "critical of the current US leadership".
this is being handled far better then you realize or are capable of admitting.
also drop the bs halo emoji when you know your pathetically trying to stir up shit.

The one thing I have come to realize by reading this entire thread,  is that you are incapable of dealing with anyone that has a different point of view as you.

Why the constant negative vibes? Drink some wine and have some cheese, babe.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2022, 10:39:35 PM
or the point is to keep the thread non political.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2022, 10:42:12 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 28, 2022, 10:17:48 PM
Jeez Star, do you have to shit in everybody's Wheaties? If you don't agree with something somebody says, just give it a pass for Christ's sake. Didn't your Momma ever tell you, 'Opinions are like a*# holes, everybody's got one'.

please point out 1 military relevant part of his post.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2022, 10:47:29 PM
Quote from: Hot lead and dirty talk! on March 28, 2022, 10:31:17 PM

The one thing I have come to realize by reading this entire thread,  is that you are incapable of dealing with anyone that has a different point of view as you.

Why the constant negative vibes? Drink some wine and have some cheese, babe.

if thats your takeaway then you clearly havent digged into all of the maps and information that Ive posted and provided links to.
your loss.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 28, 2022, 11:12:28 PM
I didn't see any relevant military parts in any of your last 3 posts Star. So does that mean you can't post them? Of course you can. It's called, "Free Speech" and we all get to use it here, as long as it's within the Post Rules, of course. Even the ones you don't agree with. People have posted lots of things and sources I don't agree with here...and they're entitled to. Lose the Hate Brother, you'll live longer.  :peace:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2022, 11:20:07 PM
please give a linked example of relevant information within a pratt post that falls within JH's guideline for this thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 28, 2022, 11:39:25 PM
I feel the need to lighten the mood. 

Lets have some tractor porn...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 29, 2022, 12:14:29 AM
Nice, SirAndrew.  I was reading a story today that Ukrainian police have had to seize Russian tanks from 10 different private owners' front yards.  It's unclear if people are hanging onto them to use them for agricultural purposes (seems far fetched to me, given the fuel requirements) or for resale at a later point in time.  But the notion of Ukrainian authorities having to tell people that they can't keep their trophy tanks seems kinda crazy to me.

It's really hard to know how much of this stuff is social media fakery, but it makes for interesting reading.

Star, I think most of us have strong feelings on this, but a certain basic level of civility is necessary if we want to keep up this conversation.  JasonP qualified his post well enough that I knew I'd have no interest in checking it out.  Democracy is all about the agreement do disagree.  By resorting to personal attacks on people, you just bring us down.

Given your avatar, I think you can appreciate the pernicious effects of all those negative waves!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 29, 2022, 12:23:46 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 29, 2022, 12:14:29 AM
Nice, SirAndrew.  I was reading a story today that Ukrainian police have had to seize Russian tanks from 10 different private owners' front yards.  It's unclear if people are hanging onto them to use them for agricultural purposes (seems far fetched to me, given the fuel requirements) or for resale at a later point in time.  But the notion of Ukrainian authorities having to tell people that they can't keep their trophy tanks seems kinda crazy to me.

It's really hard to know how much of this stuff is social media fakery, but it makes for interesting reading.



I'm sure at least some of it is fakery.  At least one instance in that video the pulling tractor has Invasion Z's on it so I imagine it was hot Russian on Russian action just getting a busted vehicle out of the way. 

However, there's a ton of evidence that the Russians are abandoning a large number of vehicles so while I expect it's inflated, I don't think it's overly so. 

Fun stat is that if claims are to be believed, the Ukrainians have had a net gain in armor. 

Not insignificant when you consider that the Ukrainians have a fairly significant armored force, and if they can achieve local superiority on a few places in the north, they can use it to some very good effect.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Hot lead and dirty talk! on March 29, 2022, 12:27:10 AM
That's what I meant by the negative vibes comment, woof, woof.

I appreciate ALL who have contributed to this thread, and I'm especially grateful for Stars link to that "photo verified losses" page. (I cant think of the name right now) I look at the photos from that site daily. I just wish for you to stop getting so defensive when you don't agree with someone. (and i love to bust balls just like you do). We ALL lose if you get banned from this thread and especially if this thread gets shut down. I read it several times a day and find it more informative than any other news site.

Here is my contribution. https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/among-ukraines-foreign-fighters.

I don't know anything about that website but its an interesting article. Their heart might be in the right place, but the reality of war is hard to comprehend unless you've lived it. (I have not). One thing I can agree on, in a war where both sides are taking heavy losses, you will have troops on both sides saying the same things.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Hot lead and dirty talk! on March 29, 2022, 12:36:22 AM
I forgot to mention our guy who volunteered to go over there (Maybe DetCord is his name?) I hope he is having a better go at it than some of these volunteers.

I pray for your safe return, bother grog. Stay safe, praise the Lord and pass the ammunition!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 29, 2022, 06:01:48 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 28, 2022, 03:24:45 PM



  Less of an itch?  So it seems like Ukraine is less of an existential metaphysical itch than it was when the Patriarch gave the matter some metaphysical thought.  Ukraine is
apparently no longer a metaphysical itch that only nukes can scratch (I guess since it is bigger than Chechenya or Aleppo or something and therefore no really all that metaphysical
when you think about it and it starts blowing up your actual stuff?):


  Kremlin spokesman: Russia would only use nuclear weapons when there is a threat to the country's existence
From CNN's Sophie Jeong

Russia would only use nuclear weapons when there is a threat to the country's existence — and not as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told PBS Newshour in an interview Monday.

"Any outcome of the operation (in Ukraine), of course, is not a reason for usage of a nuclear weapon," Peskov said. "We have a security concept that very clearly states that only when there is a threat for existence of the state, in our country, we can use and we will actually use nuclear weapons to eliminate the threat for the existence of our country."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 29, 2022, 07:17:34 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 29, 2022, 06:01:48 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 28, 2022, 03:24:45 PM



  Less of an itch?  So it seems like Ukraine is less of an existential metaphysical itch than it was when the Patriarch gave the matter some metaphysical thought.  Ukraine is
apparently no longer a metaphysical itch that only nukes can scratch (I guess since it is bigger than Chechenya or Aleppo or something and therefore no really all that metaphysical
when you think about it and it starts blowing up your actual stuff?):


  Kremlin spokesman: Russia would only use nuclear weapons when there is a threat to the country's existence
From CNN's Sophie Jeong

Russia would only use nuclear weapons when there is a threat to the country's existence — and not as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told PBS Newshour in an interview Monday.

"Any outcome of the operation (in Ukraine), of course, is not a reason for usage of a nuclear weapon," Peskov said. "We have a security concept that very clearly states that only when there is a threat for existence of the state, in our country, we can use and we will actually use nuclear weapons to eliminate the threat for the existence of our country."


Now I am reassured.  After all, we have not yet been able to catch the Russians in a lie  ;).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 29, 2022, 08:18:10 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 29, 2022, 07:17:34 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 29, 2022, 06:01:48 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 28, 2022, 03:24:45 PM



  Less of an itch?  So it seems like Ukraine is less of an existential metaphysical itch than it was when the Patriarch gave the matter some metaphysical thought.  Ukraine is
apparently no longer a metaphysical itch that only nukes can scratch (I guess since it is bigger than Chechenya or Aleppo or something and therefore no really all that metaphysical
when you think about it and it starts blowing up your actual stuff?):


  Kremlin spokesman: Russia would only use nuclear weapons when there is a threat to the country's existence
From CNN's Sophie Jeong

Russia would only use nuclear weapons when there is a threat to the country's existence — and not as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told PBS Newshour in an interview Monday.

"Any outcome of the operation (in Ukraine), of course, is not a reason for usage of a nuclear weapon," Peskov said. "We have a security concept that very clearly states that only when there is a threat for existence of the state, in our country, we can use and we will actually use nuclear weapons to eliminate the threat for the existence of our country."


Now I am reassured.  After all, we have not yet been able to catch the Russians in a lie  ;).

  The war seems to be winding down a little.  We haven't heard much about what a metaphysical problem Ukraine is.  It's possible the itch is easing on its own after the itchiness proved to
be capable of offering a defense.  You can't scratch what you can't reach and you can't nuke an itch that shoots back, maybe?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 08:45:08 AM
Jesus JH and I go away for a bit and the negative waves pour forth. Is everyone cool now?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Hot lead and dirty talk! on March 29, 2022, 08:57:11 AM
Everybody is  Fonzi.

What's Fonzi?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 09:00:02 AM
I am certainly not Fonzi. More like Arnold.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 29, 2022, 09:35:19 AM
(https://y.yarn.co/713b2195-abc0-4b15-8b63-f83e274396b1_text.gif)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Hot lead and dirty talk! on March 29, 2022, 09:37:58 AM
I actually tried to call SOME of you guys cool.

But alas, you nerds never let me down!  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 29, 2022, 09:40:49 AM
^Haha!

I like to think that I keep myself in reserve.  In case the Germans mount a counterattack against Paris or even New York.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 09:47:38 AM
Anything's possible these days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 29, 2022, 09:48:08 AM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-forces-driven-away-from-kyiv-as-ukraine-regains-territory-and-kills-top-commander-colonel-denis-kurilo?ref=home?ref=home

Russian Forces Driven Away From Kyiv as Ukraine Regains Territory and Kills Top Commander


It also comes as the Ukrainian military announced several territorial gains, with the northeastern town of Trostyanets liberated from Russian troops and several areas outside Kyiv reported back in the hands of Ukraine. The military said territories in the Chernihiv region were also liberated.

The mayor of the town of Irpin outside Kyiv—which has been decimated by Russian bombs as Putin's troops sought a foothold over the Ukrainian capital—said Russian forces had been completely pushed out.


https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-claims-it-will-pull-back-troops-to-boost-trust-with-ukraine?ref=home?ref=home

Russia Claims It Will Pull Back Troops to Boost 'Trust' With Ukraine

Russia's Defense Ministry on Tuesday announced plans to drastically reduce "military activity" in two key Ukrainian regions in a bid to boost "mutual trust" with Ukraine following peace talks. Citing negotiations on an agreement for Ukraine to officially take on a neutral, "non-nuclear" status, Deputy Defense Minister Aleksander Fomin said "it was decided to drastically, exponentially, reduce military activity" in the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions in order to facilitate the signing of such an agreement.


Same situation, different views.

I don't care how the Russians explain it, but for the first time I see an opening towards a solution and to end this war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 09:52:04 AM
'Mutual trust'? That's a good one.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 29, 2022, 11:39:06 AM
Gus, that's a good clip.  Mr. Miyagi sure came a long ways in a single generation, didn't he?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 11:40:53 AM
Honestly I miss Pat Morita every day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 29, 2022, 11:53:31 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 11:40:53 AM
Honestly I miss Pat Morita every day.
I walk my dog twice a day.  As I'm getting ready I frequently say "boots on, boots off".
I am happy that the Russians are converting their butt-kicking into a reduction in activities to improve mutual trust.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 29, 2022, 12:16:32 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 29, 2022, 11:53:31 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 11:40:53 AM
Honestly I miss Pat Morita every day.
I walk my dog twice a day.  As I'm getting ready I frequently say "boots on, boots off".
I am happy that the Russians are converting their butt-kicking into a reduction in activities to improve mutual trust.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but an alternative view of Russian activities is that they need to reconstitute their forces, so they are pulling some back to the safe area of Belarus, and reconstituting them for another go, either on the Kiev front or elsewhere.  Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are will be forced to maintain most of their forces in the Kiev region regardless of the Russian "redeployment".    I'm not saying this is what is happening. I'm just offering it as an alternative to what the Russians are claiming they are doing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 12:21:08 PM
So...basically pooling the remaining Ukrainian forces around Kiev to make for a nice collection of targets for the Russians?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 29, 2022, 12:41:13 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 12:21:08 PM
So...basically pooling the remaining Ukrainian forces around Kiev to make for a nice collection of targets for the Russians?

Not exactly.  Given the scope of their losses, I believe the Russians need to reconstitute.  They can pull these forces out of the line and send them to Belarus, which is a safe zone for the Russians.  After reconstituting, they can send the forces anywhere they want.  However, the Ukrainians will still be  required to maintain the majority of their current forces currently deployed in the Kiev region, as Russia could quickly resume the attack there.  Arguably, the Ukrainians could continue to try to take advantage of the Russian redeployments to roll back the Russians on the Kiev front.  But as the Russians are digging in, and the Ukrainians are lacking artillery and air superiority, such local counter-attacks are likely to become expensive.  My guess is that the Ukrainians will continue to make local counterattacks to seize key terrain and/or take locations for political purposes. But they will largely take the breather to also dig in and resupply, and then shift whatever minor forces they they can free up to the south.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 01:33:01 PM
What ever happened to the 30,000 Belorussian troops that were going to invade Ukraine?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 29, 2022, 01:45:50 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 01:33:01 PM
What ever happened to the 30,000 Belorussian troops that were going to invade Ukraine?

  Good question.  At one point some seem to have crossed into Ukraine...but maybe not.  Belarusian forces don't seem to have gone into Ukraine in big numbers.  Now, of course,
as usual the weirdness continues: lots of HE hurled into everything, some negotiating and some movement by the Russians maybe to go after things in the SE Ukraine (but who knows?)?

Oh and Putin has said he is as culturally canceled as JK Rowling and he is going to "thrash" Zelensky or something.  Oh and Putin's Chenchyeians want to go on fighting no matter what.  And
Wagner group has sent another 1000 (honestly that's the number, less than 4000 so maybe 3000 are dead or lost or in Syria etc. etc.) mercenaries to do something somewhere.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 29, 2022, 02:16:08 PM
The gravitational center of this war does seem to have shifted south to the, 'Land Corridor' from Crimea to the Donbass. That maybe where the war's decided...if the Russkies get stopped there, where else can they go to make any claim of success? Sending new forces there to reinforce their progress seems sensible to me. BTW, I know a friend who's son was a Medical Tech or some such in the Canadian Army. He's trying to work-out a way to get to the Ukraine to help-out. Very Good Sir!  :clap:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 29, 2022, 02:20:48 PM
It would be a little funny if Wagner's mercs got 75% merc'd while in-country, so he decided to merc on out of there elsewhere!

I don't see Russia's withdrawal announcement as being mutually exclusive to their previously announced plans to focus on securing control over the Donbas region. (And also that other breakaway city-state "republic" next door? -- don't know why it wasn't mentioned but maybe it was assumed.)  I'm a little fuzzy about why Belarus would be safer than Russia itself, but whatever they think works I guess.

Right now, the only feasible claim to success would be picking up the hinterlands (for want of a better word) west of those two city-states, pushing the Ukrainian border back proportionately. Bonus points if they can keep the Crimea (which at the moment seems like it's going to happen) and synch up the Donbas area with the Kuban better allowing a straighter transport corridor southward to the Black Sea from that area.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 29, 2022, 02:39:36 PM
Re the VDH video, in case I have to explain it: many people here are fans of him as a classicist and a military historian, even aside from his personal political views. (I'm only a minor fan; I doubt I even have any of his books, I just listen to some of his lectures occasionally.)

The military discussion was about 53 minutes (for part 1, part 2 still to come) behind the paywall (with a free 2-week trial, or I wouldn't have bothered mentioning it at all), for anyone interested in his assessments -- BUT since along the way I also found about 45 seconds of general political griping about the US administration, I thought I'd better mention that as a caution and not even provide a link to it just to be safe. Fans of VDH can search around and find it if they want, now that they know it exists.

I pretty much always appreciate your maps and graphics, Star, and even the humorous memes you've posted along the way. I know you're concerned about the thread being locked down or even deleted, and are just trying to protect it, and I appreciate that, too.

Gus and Jarhead are very capable of sending me warnings if (and sometimes when) they think I'm going too far somewhere, and/or even editing out my comments as they see fit (including this one!) and I don't think I've ever complained about that: I fully accept their right and responsibility to do so. Certainly it's better for me to be sacrificed than the thread, and if they want to put me in time out for however long for any reason, I'll accept that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 29, 2022, 03:11:56 PM
You're an odd duck, Pratt...but you're our odd duck.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 29, 2022, 03:14:41 PM
Well stated Jason. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 29, 2022, 04:49:22 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 29, 2022, 02:20:48 PM
It would be a little funny if Wagner's mercs got 75% merc'd while in-country, so he decided to merc on out of there elsewhere!


   Where do the Wagner's Mercenary Numbers (WMN) get cooked up?  Does Wagner do it himself as in "round it up to the next tens spot and then multiply by 100" so 31 becomes 40 and then 4000?
Or does he just decide 1000 is plausible now since he said 4000 assassins would get Zelensky and "23 other" (23? where do they get these numbers?  ).  23 sounds odd but Two survivors become 10 and then 1000 and so on.  Then they go to Syria and find some dissguntled ex-Chendchenyian so that's 3 and then they say "We 4000 will fight to the end in the DNR!" and then they
stay in Syria so as to be able to say "More Syrians are coming now!" and "We are as culturally canceled as JK Rowling!" and "We will thrash Zelensky!".
Oh and the missile defense site says 113 hypersonic missiles have been launched at Ukraine but on a bad day only 40% of those "functioned" (left the launch tube?  Flew in the right general direction?  Hit something?  Hit something in Ukraine?) on good days 80% worked but on an average day maybe 50%.  So split up 113 and say only 60 "functioned"...Is "the  notorious Wagner Group" making this stuff up too?  I guess 113  with 60 "functioning" is still better than 4000 tried to kill any one of 23 but missed. them. all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on March 29, 2022, 05:33:28 PM
If I was ready to nuke an area, I'd pull my guys back. And I'd make sure they were NBC ready while I re-grouped them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 29, 2022, 05:54:01 PM
Quote from: solops on March 29, 2022, 05:33:28 PM
If I was ready to nuke an area, I'd pull my guys back. And I'd make sure they were NBC ready while I re-grouped them.

I believe Russian cold war era doctrine was just to shove through B level units into the fallout to exploit the openings then send the better troops with minimal NBC gear in after. 

That was the Soviets though and I'm a bit rusty on 60's planning.  That was when their goal was to hit the Rhine in just a few days to knock out NATO in a blow.  Not sure they'd even consider such a plan after the losses they've already sustained.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2022, 06:16:42 PM
can the soviets pull out north of Kiev?  Im looking for info if the Ukrainians continued to close the northern end of that thrust.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 29, 2022, 06:16:49 PM
Russian statement that they are backing away from Kyiv looks like a head fake so far.

Pentagon says no real movement of troops.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-pentagon-doesn-t-buy-russia-s-claim-that-it-s-withdrawing-troops-around-kyiv/ar-AAVDJlr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7bd0d39096544e80be2d5c68cd2a1d71 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-pentagon-doesn-t-buy-russia-s-claim-that-it-s-withdrawing-troops-around-kyiv/ar-AAVDJlr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7bd0d39096544e80be2d5c68cd2a1d71)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 29, 2022, 06:31:20 PM
Here's some incredible footage. 

Almost like watching a game of Close Combat at times.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2022, 08:21:12 PM
another map update now with Ukrainian advances!
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1508632912534589444

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO-9cI-XEAE4_dP?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2022, 08:23:32 PM
on the second map of that tweet thread you can just taste how close the Ukrainians are to pocketing a LOT of russians.
soooooooo close.
also the explosions at a russian munitions dump outside Belgorod are going to do no favors for the Donbass troops it supports.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2022, 08:28:59 PM
when one IED is so old fashioned.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1508459829446299648

any ideas on how to embed this as a video and not a link?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2022, 08:56:17 PM
another photo of 80 years of russian armor.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPBNQjqWQAkwxqA?format=jpg&name=large)

odd that they wasted ammo on the T-34.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 29, 2022, 09:13:30 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2022, 08:28:59 PM
when one IED is so old fashioned.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1508459829446299648

any ideas on how to embed this as a video and not a link?

   Yeah, the post blast tweets are always unusually unenlightening.  How many times does somebody have to say, "Oh the Russians don't care about loses" (you'd think this war
sorta suggested maybe they should? after all of an attacking force of about 200 thousand, about 40,000 seem to be hors de combat (shot, blown up, captured, run over by their own men,
wounded, frostbit, deserted, gone back to Belarus to "regroup" etc. etc.)...maybe a little caring would have saved them and everyone else a lot of trouble.

   i recall one interview where some newsy dude was saying "Whats been happening tactically with the Russians?  How about tactics?  Can they do something tactical? Can they try some new tactics?
   are tactical things happening?  How are their tactics?  What about their tactics?  Is something tactical going to happen?
          Are the Russians going to try some new tactics?" and the military expert said, "They need a new army.  This one is wrecked."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 29, 2022, 09:29:35 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2022, 08:56:17 PM
odd that they wasted ammo on the T-34.

When the adrenal is running high, and you turn your turret and see the silhouette of a tank....

Reminds me of US carrier aircraft attacking Tojo's old flagship Mikasa in Yokosuka in 1945. Mikasa had been a defanged memorial ship since the early 1920s.

Or, the Japanese attacking the USS Utah, a defanged target ship at Pearl Harbor. The Japanese pilots had been told not to attack it since it had limited military value...but young men, testosterone and live torpedoes combined and they sunk it anyway.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2022, 09:35:29 PM
Im laughing that the T-34 took the hit, and while cracking in half, held together way better then most current russian tanks Ive seen.
also of note is the wrecked track in front is one of two destroyed SPGs in the picture.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2022, 11:08:24 PM
Somewhere in the Ukraine a russian turret is practising an extreme form of social distancing from the rest of the vehicle.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 30, 2022, 02:24:00 AM
Ukrainian 152-mm D-20 (sorry, don't know the best way to resize these)

(https://preview.redd.it/9toyjp14zeq81.jpg?width=3747&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a5b144601d310742b8643a1e76c0f84a385e1f72)

(https://preview.redd.it/7vg0tw54zeq81.jpg?width=4096&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb364d4651465967a5d408383072e413db846242)

(https://preview.redd.it/ml2r2q94zeq81.jpg?width=4096&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91aa84a2fd79dc5f32c7e382b2ec58dea179bcee)

(https://preview.redd.it/j0e2oyd4zeq81.jpg?width=2954&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b17615abbd24339d804f34010a46e4d01ea931a)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 30, 2022, 08:22:46 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 29, 2022, 09:13:30 PM


  Bret stephens in the NY times offers this opinion:

The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.  Of course, Bret suggesting something else:  Putin always just wanted the Donbas (or some other place
around there with lots of natural gas).  Bret suggests that Putin's plan has been brilliant all along: attack civilians to force negotiations and get the Donbas.  I find the idea that Putin
has some big plan that is working out as planned unconvincing.  Sure, getting something out of the mess seems like a plan of sorts and i guess Putin could claim he meant for all this to happen,
but there seem to be some big downsides to whatever brilliant plans he has running.
For example:  Why completely destroy the credibility of your armed forces to the extent that US intelligence wonders how they overestimated the Russians by such a huge margin?
And this is not a simple case of throwing away a few armies and the troops from DNR and LNR -- all those malfunctioning advanced missiles are technologically very close to what the Chinese have.
This mess downgrades the credibility and value and deterrent effect of the most advanced parts of three of the world's major military powers: Russia, China and India.  They all now have
megatons of this questionable gear.
And for another thing -- Putin doesn't have the Donbas (or the nearby gassy place) yet.  Will he get it?  If he doesn't, will it be possible even for op-ed writers to suppose Putin has some
brilliant plan?
And another thing -- Assuming that reducing Ukraine to a client state like Belarus would have been a reasonable plan before the war, the opposite seems much more likely as the war goes on -- its quite possible that Ukraine might hold on and have its neutral status as a  non-client guaranteed even more securely than if it had joined NATO.  The tectonic powershifts there might involve the loss of Belarus as a Client state and the emergence of Turkey as a regional power roughly equal to Russia.  Could even an op-ed writer suppose that was part of good planning on Putin's part?
No part of any possible rational plan that Putin may have had has actually seemed to work out so far and getting the Donbas and some more natural gas seems more like an excuse to continue the war
indefinitely than anything else.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 30, 2022, 08:45:30 AM
^Good post Meng. Interesting what you say about Turkey. I know Erdogan would claim that Turkey is already a regional power in the area. Maybe this war will see them rise even higher?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 30, 2022, 09:10:10 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 30, 2022, 02:24:00 AM
Ukrainian 152-mm D-20 (sorry, don't know the best way to resize these)

(https://preview.redd.it/9toyjp14zeq81.jpg?width=3747&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a5b144601d310742b8643a1e76c0f84a385e1f72)

(https://preview.redd.it/7vg0tw54zeq81.jpg?width=4096&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb364d4651465967a5d408383072e413db846242)

(https://preview.redd.it/ml2r2q94zeq81.jpg?width=4096&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91aa84a2fd79dc5f32c7e382b2ec58dea179bcee)

(https://preview.redd.it/j0e2oyd4zeq81.jpg?width=2954&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b17615abbd24339d804f34010a46e4d01ea931a)

These should be able to embiggen again, back and forth, with a mouse click.

The key is to add a space after img, and then  width=1024 before the close of the square brackets.

So, changing square to fancy brackets in order not to trigger the code, it would look like this: {img width=1024}

You can also temporarily reply to this by the "insert quote" button and see how the addition works out in the code. The width can be set to anything you like, but 1024 has worked well for me in the past.


Here's Star's super-helpful map resized down, too:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO-9cI-XEAE4_dP?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

...I duly note that Odessa still hasn't been invaded yet. ;)  :crazy2: :hide:  #:-) L:-)

(I'm poking fun at myself for somehow thinking last week that Odessa had been beach-headed by a Marine force, presently to withdraw due to lack of support, before being caught, overrun and destroyed by the Uks.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 30, 2022, 09:16:34 AM
Meanwhile, shooting that T-34... I also wonder if that was done deliberately to mess with local honor memorials.

I lol'd surprisingly hard at the quip about how somewhere a turret is practicing extreme social distancing! -- and I notice there's a cannon barrel mid-right edge of the photo which is doing the same thing, all by itself over there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 30, 2022, 09:25:20 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 30, 2022, 08:45:30 AM
^Good post Meng. Interesting what you say about Turkey. I know Erdogan would claim that Turkey is already a regional power in the area. Maybe this war will see them rise even higher?

  Things seem to be moving some in the Levant (a nice medieval French term for the near-middle east).  While Turkey, Ukraine and Russia were meeting in Istambul, Israel, the US, Morroco, Egypt and
some gulf states (Excluding Iran, Syria and Turkey) were meeting at Ben Gurion's old kubbutz.  They even made a pilgrimage to his grave.

  Anyway, Turkey really needs for this war to stop -- moreso than anyone outside of the immediate participants and Belarus.  On the upside, if they can broker the peace, they are in a great position: neutralize the Russians in Syria, cool things down with Iran, keep running its
non-NATO policies (they aren't sanctioning Russia or anything like that) while benefitting from being in NATO, and sell a lot of its drone technology.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 30, 2022, 10:23:28 AM
I heard on FOX this morning that Lavrov is heading to China. He had been headed there about a week ago but his plane was recalled to show Russian displeasure over China allowing video of Russian snipers killing Ukrainian citizens in a bread line to be broadcast. So...cracks in the alliance?  ^-^
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 30, 2022, 10:29:28 AM
Not to be a nit picker or anything but that doesn't look like a T-34 to me. 

The rear wheel sprocket looks wrong for it to be a T-34.  The double barrel muzzle brake on the gun looks more like either an IS-2, IS-3, or T10M. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 30, 2022, 10:48:45 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 30, 2022, 10:23:28 AM
I heard on FOX this morning that Lavrov is heading to China. He had been headed there about a week ago but his plane was recalled to show Russian displeasure over China allowing video of Russian snipers killing Ukrainian citizens in a bread line to be broadcast. So...cracks in the alliance?  ^-^

  Cracks in several fantasy worlds?  Brett Stephens the op-ed man thinks Putin's "plan" is working (maybe).  The Chinese would like to know how Russia has such a crappy army and such crappy missiles
and so on.  The Russians would like some stuff that actually works (which the Chinese probably would like to keep for themselves
in case of a real war and not a Putin-esque fantasy war and not have shot at maternity hospitals and shopping centers).  Weirdly enough (and sort of a monkey-wrench in the notion that
Putin's plan is working), Putin may not even have a non-fantasy picture of his fantasy war because he has been systematically misinformed by his own military and intelligence agencies from
well before the war:

  US official: "We believe that Putin is being misinformed" about Russian military performance
From CNN's Jeremy Diamond

The US believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is being "misinformed" by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing in Ukraine and the impact of sanctions on Russia's economy, a US official tells CNN.

"We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions, because his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth," a US official said.
The official said the assessment is based on declassified US intelligence findings.

The official added that the US has information indicating that Putin has become aware of the misinformation, leading to a rift between Putin and his top defense officials.


Okay so what does that suggest about how Putin's plan is working?  We have plan A:  Putin planned long ago (well...last year?) to be systematically misinformed by his intelligence team.
I guess in the Op-ed world that might seem like a good plan.  But is it really a plan?  What is it a plan for?  or For what would it be a plan?  It definitely seems to have worked.  No matter what
happens, Plan A works and Putin has no real idea what is going on.
What about Plan B?  Well, plan B would be that Putin has some kind of plan.  Let's call having some kind of a plan, Plan B.  In Plan B, Putin plans on being informed of real events.  So Plan B
has failed.  i guess from the Op-ed point of view the failure of Plan B could be considered trivial -- sure, we all fail occasionally to be correctly informed of real events.
So we have Plan C...the Op-ed idea of "Putin's Plan" (that might be working) despite or because of the failure or trivial failure of Plan B.
Okay so...Plan C:  Putin doesn't know about the status of Plans A and B at least when he starts plan C (we now know that he appears to have discovered something fishy about plans
A and B...in Op-ed terms I guess the failures of plans A B and C just shows how flexible Putin is...how focused he is on...something that is working -- which no one except maybe Brett
Stephens can comprehend in an Op-ed kind of way at least), but then he finds out he has been misinformed.
Okay so since we know for sure that Plans A, B and C have failed, Putin must be on plan D at least.  This plan we assume might be working, assuming anyone has bothered to inform him
of any real events.  So Putin has probably gotten that far and succeeded against the odds in finding out that maybe his army is falling apart, that his missiles don't work, his own intelligence
agencies have misled him for months at least and the Chinese want to know what's going on.  Time for Plan E: the Donbas and maybe some gassy areas....yep, that's the plan, maybe.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 30, 2022, 11:11:17 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 30, 2022, 02:24:00 AM
Ukrainian 152-mm D-20 (sorry, don't know the best way to resize these) [I was bored so I thought I'd give it a shot.  Added width=500 to the img commands.  That seems to override the other width option from reddit].

(https://preview.redd.it/9toyjp14zeq81.jpg?width=3747&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a5b144601d310742b8643a1e76c0f84a385e1f72)

(https://preview.redd.it/7vg0tw54zeq81.jpg?width=4096&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb364d4651465967a5d408383072e413db846242)

(https://preview.redd.it/ml2r2q94zeq81.jpg?width=4096&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91aa84a2fd79dc5f32c7e382b2ec58dea179bcee)

(https://preview.redd.it/j0e2oyd4zeq81.jpg?width=2954&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b17615abbd24339d804f34010a46e4d01ea931a)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 30, 2022, 01:55:20 PM
^ Yep! -- that is the way. {Mando theme intensifies}

Re T-34 vs IS-2... well, an IS-2 (or better) might explain how the tank was 'only' cracked in half!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 30, 2022, 02:27:48 PM
Yeah, those IS series were tough! 

Anyway upon further inspection I realized that T-34's don't have either muzzle brakes or flash suppressors on them so again that image of that wrecked tank is not a T-34.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 30, 2022, 06:36:28 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 30, 2022, 10:29:28 AM
Not to be a nit picker or anything but that doesn't look like a T-34 to me. 

The rear wheel sprocket looks wrong for it to be a T-34.  The double barrel muzzle brake on the gun looks more like either an IS-2, IS-3, or T10M.

I will repeat myself again:

QuoteIm laughing that the T-34 took the hit, and while cracking in half, held together way better then most current russian tanks Ive seen.
also of note is the wrecked track in front is one of two destroyed SPGs in the picture.

the tank on the pedestal is a T-34/85. 
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwidth-1024%2520https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FFPBNQjqWQAkwxqA%3Fformat%3Djpg%26amp%3Bname%3Dlarge&hash=11a865e456e5125ec8380e1c3147d8b94ef746ee)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 30, 2022, 06:42:10 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 30, 2022, 10:29:28 AM
Not to be a nit picker or anything but that doesn't look like a T-34 to me. 
The rear wheel sprocket looks wrong for it to be a T-34.  The double barrel muzzle brake on the gun looks more like either an IS-2, IS-3, or T10M.


I will repeat myself again:

the tank on the pedestal is a T-34/85.  the other 2 wrecks are russian SPGs.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPBNQjqWQAkwxqA?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 30, 2022, 06:48:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2022, 08:56:17 PM
another photo of 80 years of russian armor.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPBNQjqWQAkwxqA?format=jpg&name=large)

odd that they wasted ammo on the T-34.

The tank on the pedestal is a T-34/85.

This pic was taken near the train station in the town of Trostyanets near Sumy. I was able to find the Google street view of the same location. The street view was taken in 2015, and many of the same buildings are visible. The tank is clearly a T-34/85. The monument commemorates the town's liberation from the Germans in 1943.

https://www.google.com/maps/@50.4815304,34.9664687,3a,41.9y,119.17h,87.56t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sVV_HfQVte18tUhgxcdpRjQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!5m1!1e4 (https://www.google.com/maps/@50.4815304,34.9664687,3a,41.9y,119.17h,87.56t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sVV_HfQVte18tUhgxcdpRjQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!5m1!1e4)

The town of Trostyanets was taken by the Russian's on Feb 24th and after more than a month of Russian occupation, was just liberated by Ukrainian forces.

Here is a nice video from Radio Free Europe that interviews some of the town inhabitants. And shows some of the Russian equipment. The T-34/85 can be seen briefly in the background of the last interview (video location 5:52). You can also see the very burned out SPG in the foreground of the original shot, but the video is from the front of the vehicle (video location 5:13).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-tp97V2QG0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-tp97V2QG0)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 30, 2022, 06:48:50 PM
^^Well that just goes to show you that I need glasses!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 30, 2022, 06:58:07 PM
The Ukrainians are saying that they beat an "elite" Russian tank division at Myrhorod. This battle was part of Ukrainian offensive operations that was one of their most important victories so far. 

The Ukrainians captured a handful of T-80s, that the Ukrainians say are only issued to elite Russian units. The Russian unit defeated here was reportedly the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/29/2088757/-Ukraine-update-The-story-of-Russia-s-4th-Armored-division-and-Ukraine-s-biggest-victory-to-date (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/29/2088757/-Ukraine-update-The-story-of-Russia-s-4th-Armored-division-and-Ukraine-s-biggest-victory-to-date)

The article is a little confusing since it seems to be talking about something that happened recently, but the timestamps on some of the videos go back a while.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 30, 2022, 07:04:46 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on March 30, 2022, 06:48:50 PM
^^Well that just goes to show you that I need glasses!

Nah...you are good. It was hard to make out in the clutter of the original picture. It only became obvious to me once I saw the Google street view shot.

Seeing the Google street view was also sad...you can see how much devastation there has been in the before/after views.

I think those frozen Russian assets are going to come in handy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 30, 2022, 07:31:03 PM
Random aside, but I rewatched Red Dawn the other night and couldn't help noticing the Wolverines' school colors are blue and yellow.  Talk about prescience!  🤔
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 30, 2022, 07:35:03 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 30, 2022, 06:58:07 PM


The article is a little confusing since it seems to be talking about something that happened recently, but the timestamps on some of the videos go back a while.

  Well...whatever happened to the GTD4 apparently took place over more than a month.  They made their initial push to the T-town (Trostyanets) that was just recaptured and where the GTD4 took its most recent beating.
So the initial move on the 24th of Feb or so.  And then two more penetrations south of Sumy after which they started to run into trouble on the 9th of March, at which point they might have been increasingly
isolated and not well-supplied.  Somewhere around early March also there seems to have been a rather mysterious progressive breakdown in the entire command control system running the war.  Anyway, after whatever went wrong on the 9th at Myrhorod, they seem to have spent around 20 days slowly collapsing while shooting HE at Sumy and then they were finally rendered hors de combat as Trostyanets fell and apparently the GDT4 was withdrawn to be rebuilt as the Russian army began to take a more realistic view of what was happening.  Maybe somebody finally informed the high command that things were not going very well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 30, 2022, 07:42:16 PM
I watched the original Red Dawn with my younger daughter about a month ago when this started and did not notice that the high school colors are indeed blue and yellow. That is f'ing awesome.

(https://smithsverdict.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/red-dawn-1984.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 30, 2022, 07:50:24 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 30, 2022, 07:35:03 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 30, 2022, 06:58:07 PM


The article is a little confusing since it seems to be talking about something that happened recently, but the timestamps on some of the videos go back a while.

  Well...whatever happened to the GTD4 apparently took place over more than a month.  They made their initial push to the T-town (Trostyanets) that was just recaptured and where the GTD4 took its most recent beating.
So the initial move on the 24th of Feb or so.  And then two more penetrations south of Sumy after which they started to run into trouble on the 9th of March, at which point they might have been increasingly
isolated and not well-supplied.  Somewhere around early March also there seems to have been a rather mysterious progressive breakdown in the entire command control system running the war.  Anyway, after whatever went wrong on the 9th at Myrhorod, they seem to have spent around 20 days slowly collapsing while shooting HE at Sumy and then they were finally rendered hors de combat as Trostyanets fell and apparently the GDT4 was withdrawn to be rebuilt as the Russian army began to take a more realistic view of what was happening.  Maybe somebody finally informed the high command that things were not going very well.

Your time line would explain it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 30, 2022, 07:52:23 PM
Aircraft tracker art.

https://talker.news/2022/03/30/pilot-uses-plane-to-write-glory-to-ukraine-in-the-sky/ (https://talker.news/2022/03/30/pilot-uses-plane-to-write-glory-to-ukraine-in-the-sky/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 30, 2022, 08:02:17 PM
Welp, I've played enough Heroes and Generals riding around in a T-34/85 to know how much differently it looks from being upgraded to that model, and I still didn't catch it.

Also, perhaps relatedly, my new glasses (which I've been trying to get since January) continue to fail, and now I'm on to hardline bifocals next month.  :buck2: Guess I shouldn't complain: technology exists for my eyes, so it could be a lot worse! Come to think of it, this smiley would be more appropriate:  :nerd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 30, 2022, 08:35:45 PM
I remember in the late 1970's going to my local library and borrowing every volume of Marshall Cavendish's Encyclopedia of WW2.  In it were drawings of aircraft, ships, and tanks.  Those images are forever burned into my mind.  I can still see that sideview of a T34/85 drawing in my mind even though I haven't seen that particular volume in the series in well over 35 years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Rekim on March 30, 2022, 08:59:21 PM
Looking forward to enjoying this out on the deck this summer. Not many tanks warrant a 500 page book, but the T-34 certainly qualifies. Should be in a similar state to W8 by the time I'm done.

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/AM-JKLXjXnwG0hpLA3wvLhbzSFB00grDmAVsu2WJsHVWZ2p_qKN-NpgBAue1G_-e0pzvYImEIR_jbnxhpFKdnAbZ_PvFi86HCiNAkwga9LbPZGyLwCpKcJk1bsO2vLDd1AQ2AQ0m8aTXVwuy0tMSXf1T-Z9f=w676-h847-no?authuser=0)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 30, 2022, 09:24:18 PM
just to go sideways for a moment, check out RZM for quality WW2 books.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 30, 2022, 09:44:36 PM
Ill just leave the tagline.

7 busses with Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome have arrived to a hospital in Belarus from the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine.

They allegedly dug trenches in the highly radioactive Red Forest

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 30, 2022, 09:52:21 PM
Jesus Christ.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 31, 2022, 08:29:02 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 30, 2022, 09:52:21 PM
Jesus Christ.

^i hope none of them mutates into a super soldier  ;)

i already see a bad Russian b-movie on the horizon, where Conscript Pjotr, after inhalating some radioactive dust, tranforms into "Z-man"
who then goes on a mision to fight against evil NAziTO troups, who are about to grab Königsberg (atm slured as Kaliningrad) where those want to excavate a magical item once hidden by the Teutonic Knigts order around 1255 ...       

(https://i.ibb.co/qFzq37G/Z-man.jpg)  ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on March 31, 2022, 09:25:13 AM
Stands to reason (and a position I could see taking if I were in charge) that if Russia is on the back foot in such an immense way, Ukraine would press to push them totally from their territory to include areas prior occupied.  Wonder if there is any movement of civilians from these areas back into Russia prior to such a thing possibly happening.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 31, 2022, 09:57:41 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on March 31, 2022, 09:25:13 AM
Stands to reason (and a position I could see taking if I were in charge) that if Russia is on the back foot in such an immense way, Ukraine would press to push them totally from their territory to include areas prior occupied.  Wonder if there is any movement of civilians from these areas back into Russia prior to such a thing possibly happening.

  Maybe, but since the Russian problems seem to be generated from the top down, you just don't know how the Russians are going to react.  For example, there never seems to have been an overall commander or even a real overall plan.  Putin would appear to have been in charge of the invasion but since apparently he had no realistic intel and no real reports on what was going on = that's no
one in charge.  Or to look at it another way, there's no way to get inside the Russian decision/reaction cycle because there isn't one.  Things might be changing and there seems to be some kind of very belated
response to at least some events but maybe that's an illusion.  Moreover, since it seems Putin is not going to appoint an overall commander and since Putin has no real idea what is going on, the Russians
might get organized somewhere to do something or maybe not.  Given all that, it might be just as well for the Ukrainians to push the Russians out pretty slowly all over the place since you might not want to
get them to focus on anything.  The last thing you want to to is hit them hard in some sensitive spot and get that brought to Putin's notice. 
And given all that...one nice plan for the Ukrainians would be to pretend to be getting all panic-stricken about some Russian activity of little or no real importance and start negotiating like crazy
to say stop the bombing of food storage areas and then just go on with the war, very slowly taking ground and very carefully wiping out little nips of Russians here and there.
After all, as long as Putin's plans are working (at least in his mind) apparently you can exterminate his army and his mercenaries and everything is fine -- just don't do it in such a way that he finds out about it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 31, 2022, 01:24:10 PM
I've kept hearing occasionally this week that Putin has now moved his family and key ministers to his nuclear war bunker, but as far as I know that comes from one MSNBC source some days ago...  ??? Don't know what to believe about that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 31, 2022, 01:43:16 PM
I'd buy a ticket to see, "Z Man" for sure.  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 31, 2022, 02:09:30 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 31, 2022, 01:24:10 PM
I've kept hearing occasionally this week that Putin has now moved his family and key ministers to his nuclear war bunker, but as far as I know that comes from one MSNBC source some days ago...  ??? Don't know what to believe about that.

  There seem to be all kinds of stories along those lines -- beginning on March 1.  The  "bunker" is usually described as a "luxury bunker" and in "Siberia"...but who is there sees to shift around.
Sometimes its his "family" or his "new wife" (but his "mistress" is in Switzerland according to some sources).  Recent stories put him in some other bunker closer to Moscow and even provide him with
"ministers" so he might be somewhere where nobody can get to him and tell him things are going wrong or maybe he has just found out his plans have not worked out and he is coming up with
some new plans like just take the Donbas and then negotiate from strength.  at least that would be an actual plan and just the sort of thing to make your bunker stay enjoyable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 31, 2022, 04:17:45 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 30, 2022, 09:44:36 PM
Ill just leave the tagline.

7 busses with Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome have arrived to a hospital in Belarus from the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine.

They allegedly dug trenches in the highly radioactive Red Forest

Guess that was enough for the Russians to give Chornobyl back to the Ukrainians...at least "in writing"  ::)

Quote
Russian forces, which had held the nuclear facility since Feb. 24, returned control of the Chornobyl plant "in writing" to Ukrainian personnel.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 31, 2022, 04:22:08 PM
More horrifying info here:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/31/europe/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-withdrawal-intl/index.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 31, 2022, 04:36:38 PM
Hm! -- the idea that he can use bunkering for a whole month as an excuse to change plans (presumably to something more workable), is certainly interesting. Then he could also start a purge, bully (most of) his military even harder, etc.

Whether it's realistic or makes any sense as an excuse is beside the point: he controls so much of what his people see and hear, it probably won't make any difference, and for most people outside Russia at worst it's a question mark (if they care at all) about whether he's telling the truth.

Of course most governments wouldn't believe him, at least privately, but this would give them a chance to back him up again publicly.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on March 31, 2022, 10:25:16 PM
The story about the seven buses with Russian soldiers suffering from ARS could be exaggerated bullshit. This definitely needs some critical analysis. Based on the numbers ARS isn't believable. It requires a very high dose over a short amount of time. The first thread has some good qualitative and quantitative points:

https://twitter.com/CherylRofer/status/1509328182331248649?s=20&t=huNLng6Fdz837I-IjV1Izg (https://twitter.com/CherylRofer/status/1509328182331248649?s=20&t=huNLng6Fdz837I-IjV1Izg)

https://twitter.com/jrmygrdn/status/1509379039898841095?s=20&t=huNLng6Fdz837I-IjV1Izg (https://twitter.com/jrmygrdn/status/1509379039898841095?s=20&t=huNLng6Fdz837I-IjV1Izg)

"Pure speculation on my part, with no information to support - but one possible reason to be taken to a radiation medical centre would be to be checked for any internal or external contamination, without having any immediate health issues."
https://twitter.com/DrJonathanCobb/status/1509473065725566977?s=20&t=huNLng6Fdz837I-IjV1Izg (https://twitter.com/DrJonathanCobb/status/1509473065725566977?s=20&t=huNLng6Fdz837I-IjV1Izg)


Thank you all for reading my post.

Groggy



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2022, 10:59:39 PM
with all of the other ineptness that the russian military has displayed is it that far fetched?
its all very soviet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 06:57:38 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 31, 2022, 04:36:38 PM
Hm! -- the idea that he can use bunkering for a whole month as an excuse to change plans (presumably to something more workable), is certainly interesting. Then he could also start a purge, bully (most of) his military even harder, etc.


  Hmmm...well the bunkering stories seem to be mostly for human interest coloring rather than assessing Putin's Planning problems, but, I'm sure getting into a bunker with his ministers could not
damage his planning all that much.  Going to the front and taking a look might help him more than anything....let him get more realistic with his "negotiating"

  Speaking of which, the Russians say blowing up their stuff is hurting "negotiations".  This seems puzzling.  After all if say 91% of their gear got blown up, it seems like negotiations would
move right along.  Apparently as far as the Russians are concerned, it's good for "negotiations" if Ukrainian stuff gets blown up and bad if Russian stuff get's blown up.  The Ukrainians might
suggest it is the other way around.  Hmmm...maybe that's why negotiating for real is not easy?



A purported Ukrainian strike on fuel depot could have negative impact on negotiations, says Kremlin
From Uliana Pavlova

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Friday that a purported strike by Ukrainian helicopters on a fuel depot in the southern Russian city of Belgorod could have a potential negative impact on negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.

A fire broke out at a fuel depot in Belgorod, a Russian city near the Ukrainian border, the regional governor said on his Telegram channel Friday morning.

Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of Belgorod region, accused Ukraine of being behind the blaze without providing further evidence. CNN has not been able to verify this claim.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense told CNN it had no information about the incident.

Belgorod is close to the northeastern Ukraine-Russia border, beyond which lies the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. The Belgorod area was used as a staging ground for Russian before the invasion.

Asked if the incident was regarded by the Kremlin as an escalation of the conflict, Dmitry Peskov added: "Of course, this is not something that can be perceived as creating comfortable conditions for continuing negotiations."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 01, 2022, 08:10:10 AM
^ These are the same people who said that all Ukraine had to do to end the conflict was surrender.


Last week they said the 'operation' could go to the next phase because they eliminated the Ukrainian air forces.
Today that non existing air force hit a fuel depot.

It's not easy to lie consistently.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 01, 2022, 08:24:59 AM
It seems pretty easy for the Russians to continue spewing BS in all directions, even if the BS is of varying quality.

I can easily see Russian officers and governors blaming everything on Ukraine now and for the next 50 years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 08:28:13 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 01, 2022, 08:10:10 AM
^ These are the same people who said that all Ukraine had to do to end the conflict was surrender.


Last week they said the 'operation' could go to the next phase because they eliminated the Ukrainian air forces.
Today that non existing air force hit a fuel depot.

It's not easy to lie consistently.

  I just find this whole war very puzzling.  What's basically continually making me wonder about the whole thing is what the Russians think they are doing
and why they think that.  Okay, so apparently the Russians are still trying to pretend they are just
trying to do something minor and comprehensible.  What that little comprehensible thing might be or ever have been
is truly impossible to discover.  Apparently, even if we could read Putin's mind minute-by-minute we still would not know because apparently:
a) he never knew what was going on to start with
b) but he made up a lot of stuff
c) and he still really can't believe things are occurring in a way different from what he pictured
d) so he's in a bunker maybe, possibly trying to adjust his mental world

Meanwhile everyone else in the world, including his negotiating team, his army and his press people, have to pretend there's some oh-so-simple thing that
everyone should understand, but that luckily they don't have to explain because (well let's face it), no one can, not even Putin.

So does blowing up Russian stuff "escalate" the war?  Hmmm...

As so often in the press coverage, you get the feeling that terms and questions are tossed out there with some kind of more pure hope than sensible expectation.
The press likes to say "tactically" or "tactical" or "tactics" as much as possible because they have heard that wars have that sort of thing and even "escalation"....
Now that really is a hopeful question.  Maybe it is a tactical escalation if the Ukrainians shoot back...hmmm or maybe its a normal response to a war that in many ways
has nothing particularly comprehensible about it.  Gosh...why not shoot back?  And of course if the Ukrainians blow up enough Russian stuff maybe that will force Putin
to think about what he's doing -- but probably not.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 01, 2022, 08:40:29 AM
Putin feels encroached upon by NATO and 'the West' led by the US. I know you know that already. Buried beneath the war crimes, the whole metaphysical oddity and all the bloodshed, Putin has made it clear that he thinks he has been wronged and betrayed by the West since the end of the Cold War. There are similarities to Russia now and Germany post WWI...even if genuine issues are being trumped up and threats exaggerrated ridiculously.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 01, 2022, 08:49:16 AM
As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 09:06:14 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 01, 2022, 08:40:29 AM
Putin feels encroached upon by NATO and 'the West' led by the US. I know you know that already. Buried beneath the war crimes, the whole metaphysical oddity and all the bloodshed, Putin has made it clear that he thinks he has been wronged and betrayed by the West since the end of the Cold War. There are similarities to Russia now and Germany post WWI...even if genuine issues are being trumped up and threats exaggerrated ridiculously.

  Right.  I see the context.  What I don't get is how whatever the Russians are doing in Ukraine is supposed to help Russia with whatever its actual problems are.  I mean I guess I get that the Russians
feel bad about things, but I don't see how blowing up Ukraine makes them feel any better.  Or to put it another way, if the Russian problem is that they feel "wronged" -- I'm still not sure how blowing up
Ukraine makes them feel less "wronged."  Or to put it another way: did Russia have any real actual problem that blowing up the Ukraine might solve?  The question here revolves around "real problem"
and a "realistic" solution.  If there was no real problem (and I think that is the case -- there was no real problem) then there is no real solution.  I think the actual Russian problem is not one that
blowing up Ukraine can solve: their problem is that their social world has seriously departed from any significant connection with reality.  I think much
of what we see as their BS is not BS in the usual sense because that really is what their version of reality is.  Sure, it happens to coinside with BS and that's the Russian problem in a nutshell
and blowing up Ukraine does not save them from their own BS.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 09:07:32 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 09:06:14 AM


  OOOps editing disaster... and blowing up Ukraine does not save them from their own BS, at least not directly.  In the end they may figure it all out -- partly thanks to the mess in Ukraine.  But
who knows?

Germany is sending some tanks (says CNN -- actually they are BMP-1a1),  Pbv 501 Levi-Strauss rivetted extra thick.  One article says 56 another 58 -- maybe two command BMP-1 were included but not counted with the basic BMP-1a1s

Wikipedia says:
Pbv 501 (Pbv stands for pansarbandvagn) – Swedish designation for 350 BMP-1A1s bought from Germany.
Pbv 501A – Between 1999 and 2001, VOP 026 from the Czech Republic modified 350 Pbv 501s for the Swedish army. The Pbv 501A has a slightly modified engine and transmission as well as an asbestos protection system. The vehicle was fitted with new weapon racks, driving lights and side skirts, while the 9K11 or 9K111 ATGM system was removed. Safety standards were also improved.[56]



   Germany approves delivery of combat tanks to Ukraine, defense ministry says
From CNN's Inke Kappeler in Berlin

Germany has approved the delivery of 56 combat tanks to Ukraine, a German defense ministry spokesperson told CNN Friday.

The tanks, which are type Pbv 501, stem from the Cold War-era East German army and had been sold to Sweden, then resold to the Czech Republic, who will deliver them to Ukraine, according to the ministry.

According to the German War Weapons Control Act, the Federal Security Council must approve of the export of weapons that originated from Germany at any time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 09:17:20 AM
Quote from: Con on April 01, 2022, 08:49:16 AM
As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con

  I don't know.  Gaming-wise, the mess in the Ukraine pretty much invalidates all the Cold War games about the war that never happened.  The mess in the Ukraine suggests all games
about the Soviets and Russians and post 1980 stuff in general need some pretty serious revision at all levels.  I'm looking into how Harpoon V simulates missiles and finding it pretty enlightening.
Gotta start over at the tech level to get games working plausibly with crap like the mess in the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 01, 2022, 09:32:21 AM
For Putin and neo-Soviets the very real problem is that they lost the Cold War. And like abusers everywhere they are taking out their very real frustration on thr nearest target, Ukraine. Unfortunately (for Russia) Ukraine is not just lying back and taking it...making the Russians look and feel even worse.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 01, 2022, 10:04:39 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 09:17:20 AM
Quote from: Con on April 01, 2022, 08:49:16 AM
As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con

  I don't know.  Gaming-wise, the mess in the Ukraine pretty much invalidates all the Cold War games about the war that never happened.  The mess in the Ukraine suggests all games
about the Soviets and Russians and post 1980 stuff in general need some pretty serious revision at all levels.  I'm looking into how Harpoon V simulates missiles and finding it pretty enlightening.
Gotta start over at the tech level to get games working plausibly with crap like the mess in the Ukraine.
Well from a a pure gaming perspective this was should be teaching all the MoD bureaucracies out there to cut in half their tank programs and double the money to ATGMs and MANPADs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 10:08:48 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 01, 2022, 09:32:21 AM
For Putin and neo-Soviets the very real problem is that they lost the Cold War. And like abusers everywhere they are taking out their very real frustration on thr nearest target, Ukraine. Unfortunately (for Russia) Ukraine is not just lying back and taking it...making the Russians look and feel even worse.

  I would say, more or less in defense of English Romanticism and Sigmund Freud in his better moods, the intensity of an emotion (eg. frustration) does not necessarily properly connect it to
reality.  So the Russians might be really, really very upset about losing the Cold War, but the real problem there is channeling that emotion in a constructive direction.  So when a child gets upset and
knocks down some construction, we don't say, "Oh good!  That's that!" we say "Boom!  Can I help you rebuild something?"  Similarly, a more constructive solution to Russian frustrations would probably
not be to applaud them for blowing up Chetchneya, Georgia, Syria and Ukraine, but to suggest they come to terms with their own BS and quit blowing up things.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 01, 2022, 10:25:17 AM
^Haha of course - but clearly much easier said than done, especially when nukes are in the hands of the pissed off toddler.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 10:51:00 AM
Quote from: Con on April 01, 2022, 10:04:39 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 09:17:20 AM
Quote from: Con on April 01, 2022, 08:49:16 AM
As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con

  I don't know.  Gaming-wise, the mess in the Ukraine pretty much invalidates all the Cold War games about the war that never happened.  The mess in the Ukraine suggests all games
about the Soviets and Russians and post 1980 stuff in general need some pretty serious revision at all levels.  I'm looking into how Harpoon V simulates missiles and finding it pretty enlightening.
Gotta start over at the tech level to get games working plausibly with crap like the mess in the Ukraine.
Well from a a pure gaming perspective this was should be teaching all the MoD bureaucracies out there to cut in half their tank programs and double the money to ATGMs and MANPADs.

  Right.  I think after 1980, the days are over when imperial states could hope that half-trained armies of young men filled with the proper zeal
could be mobilized and sent to successfully carry out nearly suicidal wars.  It didn't work in the Iran-Iraq war
or for the Islamic State and it doesn't seem to be working for Russia in Ukraine.
Grumpy recruits don't have much chance against drones and missiles and other robotic systems
or even moderately-well trained and fairly well-motivated troops.
That being said, I doubt that Ukraine can hold on to the Donbas against what the Russians will eventually mass there.   It's not going to be pretty.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 01, 2022, 11:38:41 AM
I dunno. At the end of it the Russians aren't going to be able to spend their way to victory by paying mercs. Their equipment has been degraded. Missile stocks depleted. Ultimately their military moral will be the deciding point. I would put money in the Ukrainians winning that match. Especially if they get supplied with arty etc such as they are receiving from the UK.
I posted earlier about this I feel like it's 1918 again and will and morale are going to decide the conflict.  The Russians have taken an awful beating.  Hard to recover from being gang taped by the Ukrainians  and made their bitch on the global stage. Eventually that shit will get back along with the horrific casualty rates to the Russian people.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 11:45:18 AM
Quote from: Con on April 01, 2022, 11:38:41 AM
I dunno. At the end of it the Russians aren't going to be able to spend their way to victory by paying mercs. Their equipment has been degraded. Missile stocks depleted. Ultimately their military moral will be the deciding point. I would put money in the Ukrainians winning that match. Especially if they get supplied with arty etc such as they are receiving from the UK.
I posted earlier about this I feel like it's 1918 again and will and morale are going to decide the conflict.  The Russians have taken an awful beating.  Hard to recover from being gang taped by the Ukrainians  and made their bitch on the global stage. Eventually that shit will get back along with the horrific casualty rates to the Russian people.

I hope you are right.  The Germans seem to have thrown up their hands and sent some BMP-1a1s.  You can see the Germans are giving up on any rational solution to whatever Putin's problems are and
that seems like the only rational thing to do:

Germany's top diplomat tells CNN that "it's in Putin's hands" to end the war
From CNN's Emmet Lyons and Arnaud Siad

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told CNN that the responsibility for ending the war in Ukraine lays firmly at the feet of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"It's in Putin's hands. He's the one who started the war without any reason. It is now his responsibility to end the war," Baerbock told CNN's Chief International Anchor Christiane Amanpour in an exclusive interview.

"The brutal reality is that Putin himself has chosen ... to fight a war against civilians and to fight a war against the European peace order," she said.

Germany has approved the delivery of 56 type Pbv 501 combat tanks to Ukraine, according to a German defense ministry spokesperson Friday. Germany's increased defense spending has marked a historic shift in the country's foreign policy.

Baerbock said that Germany is offering increased military assistance to the Ukrainian government as "we are in situation where NATO is standing there in solidarity with Ukraine and on the other hand, there is Russia which has made clear that there is no red lines for themselves."

"We are supporting from Germany with weapons we haven't done in the past because the reality has changed so brutally," she said.
"We had to change our course in Germany by 180 degrees because Ukraine needed our military support; we tried everything to avoid this war, but it was Putin's decision to do the opposite and that's why now we are also delivering weapons to Ukraine," she said.


The foreign minister said that sanctions have been effective in leaving Putin "totally isolated," but said that there are still strong energy links between Russia and Europe that needed severing. "The question we are raising about fossil fuels, oil, and energy, Europe is connected with Russia. Therefore we are working every day to phase out our fossil fuel dependency on Russia," she told CNN.

When asked by Amanpour as to what Putin is saying in diplomatic talks, Baerbock stated that the Russian president had "entered into this war with a false narrative, with lies. ... This wrong narrative he has been telling to the world is obviously also something he believes himself."

"When my chancellor, when others like the president of France are speaking to Putin, obviously they are telling him that he started this war with lies, that he broke with international law... but he is obviously not listening to my chancellor, and to other international partners," she said.

"The few people that are left behind him or around him who can actually speak to him do not dare to tell him the truth about the reality in Ukraine, that his troops are not being as successful as they obviously thought in the past," she added.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 01, 2022, 11:47:04 AM
It looks like 2 Ukrainian MI-24s hit the fuel facility inside of Russia.

https://funker530.com/video/ukrainian-mi-24-attack-helicopters-destroy-fuel-depot-in-russia/?ref=asmdss&fbclid=IwAR3wU6z9sNDnqv53-MKmScdYsrb7csLdoEv7CFTx9G9W0U97rpuYsgHWKoM (https://funker530.com/video/ukrainian-mi-24-attack-helicopters-destroy-fuel-depot-in-russia/?ref=asmdss&fbclid=IwAR3wU6z9sNDnqv53-MKmScdYsrb7csLdoEv7CFTx9G9W0U97rpuYsgHWKoM)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 01, 2022, 12:01:21 PM
Quote from: Con on April 01, 2022, 08:49:16 AM
As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.

I'd say the first gaming system to simulate it will be Close Combat. Because that engine is already perfectly tuned to simulate the goofy way the Sovs Russskies have handled their armor so far!  >:D

(Come to think of it, I seem to recall that Cross of Iron, previously CC3, was the most modded CC for various reasons; so maybe some ambitious modder has already started that project!)


Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 01, 2022, 11:47:04 AM
It looks like 2 Ukrainian MI-24s hit the fuel facility inside of Russia.

https://funker530.com/video/ukrainian-mi-24-attack-helicopters-destroy-fuel-depot-in-russia/?ref=asmdss&fbclid=IwAR3wU6z9sNDnqv53-MKmScdYsrb7csLdoEv7CFTx9G9W0U97rpuYsgHWKoM (https://funker530.com/video/ukrainian-mi-24-attack-helicopters-destroy-fuel-depot-in-russia/?ref=asmdss&fbclid=IwAR3wU6z9sNDnqv53-MKmScdYsrb7csLdoEv7CFTx9G9W0U97rpuYsgHWKoM)

Forbes posted an article on MSN about this, too: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-attack-helicopters-just-slipped-into-russia-and-blew-up-a-fuel-depot/ar-AAVKjYt?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=34c6713973c8442dbc348626ce2de180

DCS has a Black Sea and Hind module, right? I'm not where I can check right now.

Quote from: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 11:45:18 AM
Quote from: Con on April 01, 2022, 11:38:41 AM
I dunno. At the end of it the Russians aren't going to be able to spend their way to victory by paying mercs. Their equipment has been degraded. Missile stocks depleted. Ultimately their military moral will be the deciding point. I would put money in the Ukrainians winning that match. Especially if they get supplied with arty etc such as they are receiving from the UK.
I posted earlier about this I feel like it's 1918 again and will and morale are going to decide the conflict.  The Russians have taken an awful beating.  Hard to recover from being gang taped by the Ukrainians  and made their bitch on the global stage. Eventually that shit will get back along with the horrific casualty rates to the Russian people.

I hope you are right.  The Germans seem to have thrown up their hands and sent some BMP-1a1s.  You can see the Germans are giving up on any rational solution to whatever Putin's problems are and
that seems like the only rational thing to do:

Germany's top diplomat tells CNN that "it's in Putin's hands" to end the war


Aw, yeah! -- time for Sweden to get on the "armored bandwagon" with Germany!  :D :D :D (Pbv stands for pansarbandvagn in Swedish)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 01, 2022, 12:06:11 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 09:17:20 AM
Quote from: Con on April 01, 2022, 08:49:16 AM
As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con

  I don't know.  Gaming-wise, the mess in the Ukraine pretty much invalidates all the Cold War games about the war that never happened.  The mess in the Ukraine suggests all games
about the Soviets and Russians and post 1980 stuff in general need some pretty serious revision at all levels.  I'm looking into how Harpoon V simulates missiles and finding it pretty enlightening.
Gotta start over at the tech level to get games working plausibly with crap like the mess in the Ukraine.

I'm not entirely sure about that.  A lot (admittedly, not all) of the Russian problems are due to some very bad planning.  The same force, led more competently at the flag officer level and with better planning could have done a lot better.  With that said, there would still remain some significant training issues at the company and below level.  Additionally, there appear to have been some significant resourcing problems at the battalion level (which comes back to bad planning).  I believe that while a lot of assumptions made about the Russian army by both professional and commercial wargames need to be reviewed and modified, it would be dangerous (and likely a bad assumption) to presume that these problems won't be addressed.  Some of them, (like the bad planning) can be addressed without too much monetary expenditure.  Of course, replacing  the equipment lost won't be as cheap.  And the morale cost to the Russian army will take 10+ years (and a fair amount of money) to fix under peacetime conditions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 01, 2022, 12:17:57 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 09:17:20 AM
Quote from: Con on April 01, 2022, 08:49:16 AM
As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con

  I don't know.  Gaming-wise, the mess in the Ukraine pretty much invalidates all the Cold War games about the war that never happened.  The mess in the Ukraine suggests all games
about the Soviets and Russians and post 1980 stuff in general need some pretty serious revision at all levels.  I'm looking into how Harpoon V simulates missiles and finding it pretty enlightening.
Gotta start over at the tech level to get games working plausibly with crap like the mess in the Ukraine.

I wouldn't go as far as invalidating all "Cold War games about the war that never happened." I am far from an expert, but it has been more than 30 years, and the Russian military has been through a political, social, and organizational wringer since then; plenty of opportunity for it to degrade.

Sure the Soviets were not the 'ten foot tall' juggernauts we told ourselves they were, but they were organized and decently equipped. The Soviets only real military test was a low-intensity (compared to war in Europe) conflict in Afghanistan. They did poorly there, but that was a type of warfare they were not built to conduct. They were corrupt, but not to the extent that the Russians are now. The Soviets were also inflexible, unimaginative and somewhat behind the tech power curve, but they compensated for those problems with massive forces. Short of a morale collapse, I think they would have been a problem for NATO to deal with.

But thankfully, we will never know.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 12:35:12 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 01, 2022, 12:17:57 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 09:17:20 AM
Quote from: Con on April 01, 2022, 08:49:16 AM
As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con

  I don't know.  Gaming-wise, the mess in the Ukraine pretty much invalidates all the Cold War games about the war that never happened.  The mess in the Ukraine suggests all games
about the Soviets and Russians and post 1980 stuff in general need some pretty serious revision at all levels.  I'm looking into how Harpoon V simulates missiles and finding it pretty enlightening.
Gotta start over at the tech level to get games working plausibly with crap like the mess in the Ukraine.

I wouldn't go as far as invalidating all "Cold War games about the war that never happened." I am far from an expert, but it has been more than 30 years, and the Russian military has been through a political, social, and organizational wringer since then; plenty of opportunity for it to degrade.

Sure the Soviets were not the 'ten foot tall' juggernauts we told ourselves they were, but they were organized and decently equipped. The Soviets only real military test was a low-intensity (compared to war in Europe) conflict in Afghanistan. They did poorly there, but that was a type of warfare they were not built to conduct. They were corrupt, but not to the extent that the Russians are now. The Soviets were also inflexible, unimaginative and somewhat behind the tech power curve, but they compensated for those problems with massive forces. Short of a morale collapse, I think they would have been a problem for NATO to deal with.

But thankfully, we will never know.

  In some ways now we do know.  I think if you wanted to simulate say an attack by the USSR on NATO in 1986, you'd have to at least glance at the kind of factors that seem to have
snagged the Russians in Ukraine in 2022.  I'm still not quite sure what those factors might be, but I would think games about big modern tank battles might want to take a peek at what
really happened in 2022 with lots of modern tanks in big modern tank battles.  I suspect NATO would not have been easy for the USSR to deal with even in 1986, but I have no real idea
what might be involved in digging into that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 01:50:36 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 01, 2022, 10:25:17 AM
^Haha of course - but clearly much easier said than done, especially when nukes are in the hands of the pissed off toddler.

  Ukrainian translates Putin into human language:

Russian forces "not strong enough" to attack Ukraine on all fronts, Ukraine's top diplomat says
From CNN's Emmet Lyons and Ken Olshansky

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CNN Friday he believes a regrouping of Russian troops is happening as "they cannot sustain the pressure" to continue an assault on Ukraine from three fronts.

Speaking to CNN's Christiane Amanpour, Kuleba said that the decision by Moscow to reduce military activity on the two fronts of Kyiv and Chernihiv came at a time when "Ukrainian forces started to successfully push them back from villages and small towns in the siege of Kyiv. The reason they said it was because they felt they cannot sustain the pressure and they cannot keep the front line around Kyiv."

Kuleba said that it may be indicative of Russian President Vladimir Putin becoming more realistic about his military strategy. "I believe he already has become more real since I cannot imagine that the withdrawal of Russian forces from the north of Ukraine was not ordered by him," the minister said.

"If we translate this recent movement into the human language, it literally means I do not have sufficient power to continue attacking Ukraine from three directions simultaneously. So I have to move part of my military strength to another direction to reinforce my army in that area," he said.

"Whatever his picture of reality is, from the steps they are making on the ground, I can conclude that he has an understanding that his power, that he is not strong enough to continue attacking Ukraine from all corners and that's clear now," Kubela added.


So there you go!  Some Putin thought translated into human language!!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 01, 2022, 02:10:13 PM
A few random thoughts:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 01, 2022, 02:46:01 PM
FOOBARC also comes to mind: "Over-and-Over Beyond All Rational Comprehension".

I have at least 80% doubt that Putin will reform his army better for next time, though: he wants and needs most of it too weak and scared to oust him (and his mafia cronies) in a coup (and/or civil war breakup of Russia into more regions).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2022, 07:18:41 PM
oh please be true

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPS2dtuXMAoI0oT?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2022, 07:20:28 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPQ2lKqXMCcnP72?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 01, 2022, 07:36:17 PM
^ :D I like that one  :dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 01, 2022, 10:46:32 PM
If that map is accurate and the Russians aren't able to counterattack that thrust into their side extending beyond Ivankiv, the Russkis are in some deep doo doo.  Does anybody know how many Russians are inside that pocket?

Star, in your map, what do the yellow and blue circles represent?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 02, 2022, 05:43:03 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60946340

The heavy losses of an elite Russian regiment in Ukraine


The men in the 331st regarded themselves as the pick of Russia's army. In a video posted online last May, a general tells soldiers of the 331st Parachute Regiment that they are "the best of the best". The unit served in the Balkans, Chechnya, and the 2014 Russian intervention in the Donbas region of Ukraine, and regularly took part in Red Square parades in Moscow.
The 331st was also a showcase for Russia's policy of replacing national service soldiers with contraktniki - professionals under contract. It is understandable why the generals should have given it an important role in the invasion.

In these close-quarter battles, they have discovered what earlier VDV units learned in Afghanistan - that armoured vehicles designed to be light enough to be carried on planes do not give much protection from enemy fire.

As for the price of failure, it mounts daily. At the time of writing, BBC Newsnight had compiled a list of 39 named members of the 331st Parachute Regiment killed in Ukraine. But since none of those fatalities is more recent than the 13 March, it can be supposed that dozens more will emerge in the coming weeks.
Kostroma locals have told us they believe that around 100 members of the regiment may have died. And many families will never receive their loved one's body because it was left behind on the battlefield.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 02, 2022, 10:30:57 AM
another map update by Jomni.  look at those pretty blue arrows!
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1510116709839089664/photo/1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 02, 2022, 12:01:00 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 01:50:36 PM


  More puzzles:

British high-precision weapons in Ukraine would be "legitimate targets," Russian ambassador to the UK says
From CNN's Radina Gigova in Atlanta

If Britain delivers long-range artillery weapons and anti-ship systems to Ukraine, they would be "legitimate targets" for Russian forces, Russian ambassador to the United Kingdom Andrei Kelin told Russian state news agency TASS in an interview published on Saturday.

"Any weapon deliveries are destabilizing, especially the ones mentioned by (Ben) Wallace (the British Defense Secretary)," said Kelin, according to TASS. "They exacerbate the situation and make it bloodier."


  Many questions here: 
1) usually such things are not legitimate targets?
2) what are the legitimate targets?
3) Are the Russians only hitting legitimate targets?
4) Giving the Ukrainians weapons is "destabilizing"?
5)  So what is the threat here?  The Russians might shoot at something?
6)  In what way is that unusual or worthy of remark?
7)  Isn't everything getting shot at already?
8)  Wouldn't blowing up a lot of Russian stuff actually be stabilizing?
9)   In fact, if say 87% of Russian stuff was blown up, wouldn't that be a stabilizing event?
10) if Ukraine gets enough weapons to blow up 87% of Russian stuff, wouldn't that be stability in a nutshell?
11) can the Russians guarantee things will be bloodier if their stuff gets blown up ?
12)  how?
13) can they guarantee things will be less bloody until the stuff gets there and blows up their stuff?
14) Really?
15) I think the basic dynamic is simpler: the more Russian stuff gets blown up, the more stability there will be


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 02, 2022, 12:06:36 PM
there is no logic in how the soviets are conducting this war.
the shit thats come out of the retaken towns is soul crushing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 02, 2022, 02:17:07 PM
Agreed - if you're looking for logic coming out of the Kremlin right now you will be disappointed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 02, 2022, 02:55:07 PM
Hitler/Putin comparison:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/02/world/putin-invasion-mistakes-hitler-blake-cec/index.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 02, 2022, 03:19:03 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 02, 2022, 02:17:07 PM
Agreed - if you're looking for logic coming out of the Kremlin right now you will be disappointed.

  I think we can translate the "Those weapons Ben Wallace mentioned are legitimate targets" to: "Now you are scaring us and we don't like it, but we have sort of run out of threats since we
have threatened everybody with anything we can think of and we are busy blowing up things and kidnapping people as fast as we can so you will just have to wait and we will blow up
your scary stuff later if we get a chance."

  Oddly enough, this sort of leaves the possibility open that the scary British stuff might do some "destabilizing" and even "bloody" damage before they are "legitimate" targets.

  The original NYT article where some of this about Ben Wallace appeared also pointed out that the US is helping "In days" to get T72 tanks into Ukraine for the Ukrainians.  It seems these
might be Polish T72s since Poland is getting the Abrams from the US to replace their T72s.  Eventually, maybe all the old stuff from the Cold War might find a home or a junkyard in the
Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 02, 2022, 04:36:10 PM
A good basic breakdown of some of the anti-tank weapons Ukraine is using against Russia:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 02, 2022, 04:57:27 PM
Lots of reports coming in from the newly liberated Ukrainian villages of mass murder, rapes and summary executions of civilians with hands tied etc.
It's most likely true and if that's the case the Ukrainians are justifiably going to want Russian blood.  This will harden the Ukrainians to any kind of peace deal making the Russians pay will take precedence.
Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 02, 2022, 05:08:07 PM
Quote from: Con on April 02, 2022, 04:57:27 PM
Lots of reports coming in from the newly liberated Ukrainian villages of mass murder, rapes and summary executions of civilians with hands tied etc.
It's most likely true and if that's the case the Ukrainians are justifiably going to want Russian blood.  This will garden the Ukrainians to any kind of peace deal making the Russians pay will take precedence.
Con

Egad.  See the Russians took the Nazis' "hearts and minds," approach to locals.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on April 02, 2022, 05:50:42 PM
Who takes weapons & supplies from western borders into Ukraine & how is this achieved?  How do Ukrainians get training for these weapons?
Why are there any questions as to war crimes? This war was started by Putin for no valid reasons & laid much property to waste & many thousands of people have been murdered. Murder is a major crime. The perpetrators must be held to account!
Yet we are apparently gobsmacked that Biden says a regime change in Russia is in order. :idiot2:
There is nothing as inhuman as humans (some anyway).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 02, 2022, 06:09:12 PM
There are a few new graphic videos on YouTube that show dozens if not hundreds of people (I am not sure if civilian or military) killed in 'humanitarian escape corridors' outside of eastern Ukrainian cities. As said above, this is not good for the Russian troops, who will pay the price.

Stories of Ukrainians massacring Russian prisoners are already emerging.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on April 02, 2022, 08:00:39 PM
According to this article about 40% of Russia's 600 billion in currency reserves are held in the US, UK, France, Germany, and Japan. 
https://www.statista.com/chart/26940/russian-central-bank-foreign-currency-and-gold-reserves-by-holder/
I would like to see these countries seize these assets (they're already frozen) for use in rebuilding the Ukraine and restitution to surviving families there.  We could tell the Russians that they would get some portion of this money back if they leave the Ukraine with the amount diminishing for each day they remain there. 

Of course that could encourage the Ukrainains to keep the Russians fighting so they can eat more the pie.  Note that Russia and China only hold 35% of the reserves so other countries could join in on the bonanza.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on April 03, 2022, 02:37:09 AM
"As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con"

I'm gaming it now with combat mission black sea.  I had to adjust the Russians to all green and Ukrainians to veteran.  I also had to give the Ukrainians javelins, but the results have been pretty spot on.

Arma has lots of Ukraine war mods and missions.

I have even been using steel beasts to sim the Ukraine war, it's actually been the best one so far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 03, 2022, 02:34:01 PM
Quote from: planetbrain on April 02, 2022, 05:50:42 PM
Who takes weapons & supplies from western borders into Ukraine & how is this achieved?  How do Ukrainians get training for these weapons?
The weapons being shipped to Ukraine are primarily loaded into convoys assembled near the Eastern border of Poland and driven by Ukrainian drivers into Western Ukraine.  They arrive at towns like Lviv, and are then broken up into dispatch to Ukrainian units throughout Ukraine.

Most of the weapons being shipped into Ukraine are leftover Russian weapons held in former Warsaw Pact countries who are now NATO members.  So training needs are greatly reduced.  This is especially true for armor, vehicle-borne SAMs, and ammunition of all types, I think.  The anti-tank weapons have been a mix of older Soviet surplus stocks and American-made Stinger SAMs and Javelin anti-tank missile, along with the NLAWs mentioned in Gus' video above.  Those weapons typically require one and two-man crews and are mostly point-and-shoot weapons, so while some training is needed, it's not like they need to train them to fly F-18s or operate a nuclear submarine.

I've read reports that Americans (and presumably other NATO allies) are training some Ukrainian troops in Poland.  Details around what weapon systems they are being trained in are vague.  If I had to guess, they're probably embracing a "train the trainer" role for those lighter weapons.

I doubt that the US military has any folks actively serving in combat roles in Ukraine.  But I'd be astonished if we don't have some "non-sanctioned folks" (probably some combination of CIA operatives and US-trained mercs working at places like Blackwater) participating in Ukraine, probably helping to expedite the flood of intelligence being supplied by US assets outside Ukraine (or in orbit above Ukraine), gathering intelligence, and perhaps assisting in drone attacks as well. 
Quote
Yet we are apparently gobsmacked that Biden says a regime change in Russia is in order. :idiot2:

I think people are more gobsmacked that Biden said it, as opposed to that he's thinking it.  We're all thinking it.  But when a tyrant is losing a conventional war, he has stopped acting rationally, and he's still got the ability to launch 3,000 nuclear warheads at the rest of the world, talking about "regime change" seems tactically unwise.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 03, 2022, 02:46:12 PM
Re: Seeming Russian behavior

Deaths by indiscriminate shelling/bombing is one thing that is inescapable in warfare, but purposeful elimination of people, namely civilians, face-to-face smacks of an anger or resentment that was there for a while (i.e. the Nazi "untermensch," belief)**.  In the Nazis' case, wasn't it worked upon for years by management prior to Barbarossa?  I'm not the brightest of boys by any stretch, but going from zero to war crimes in such a short amount of time by the Russians against their Slavic brethren is a hard one to square for me.

** = Yes, I figure there is more than a little anger and resentment by the Russian rank and file at this point, so striking out against whoever doesn't necessarily imply an already deep-seated hatred that is being acted upon.  More like "heat of the moment," anger, methinks, and a desire for some kind of payback to a country that just iced your battle buddy(s).

Also curious if the Wagner boys will be similarly fed into the woodchipper or given freer reign to operate.  And where are those Night Wolves?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on April 03, 2022, 02:49:53 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on April 03, 2022, 02:46:12 PM
And where are those Night Wolves?

Probably hiding in some basement biker bar ghosting Putin's phone calls
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 03, 2022, 03:13:59 PM
One other thing I'm noticing:  It sounds like Russians tank crews are learning the same lessons that their German counterparts learned in 1944, albeit for a different reason.  Even if tanks are pretty likely to survive a direct attack (whether by Allied aircraft in WWII or by NLAWs or Russian-made anti-tank missiles in Ukraine), their support elements aren't. 

Looking at the casualty counts of verified Russian vehicle kills in the video Gus posted recently, it looks like tanks are less than 1/3 of the total vehicle casualties.  IFVs and AFVs seem to be dying at the same rates.  So not only are the Russian tanks struggling with Javelins, but their support elements are being decimated by NLAWs and Russian anti-tank missiles. 

Much is made of the German tardiness in releasing armored columns as D-Day started.  Less attention is given to the fact that German tanks released in the first day or two of D-Day often made it into the fight.  But they showed up in the combat zone without fuel, spare ammunition, or infantry support.  That made it easy for Allied anti-tank weapons to slow them down in the first few days of fighting.

The video Gus provided that shows the composition of the Russian Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) is interesting.  200 infantry sounds like a lean infantry count for a battle group that is also comprised of 10 tanks and 33 IFVs/AFVs.  That's particularly true if they are expected to move through country where small squads can fire NLAWs from almost a kilometer away or Javelins from a few kilometers away.

I've read reports that the Ukrainians have had great success in using small-unit tactics to disrupt Russian attacks.  While that makes lots of sense, I wonder whether that will be as effective in offensive operations as it has been defensively?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 03, 2022, 03:53:03 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on April 03, 2022, 02:49:53 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on April 03, 2022, 02:46:12 PM
And where are those Night Wolves?

Probably hiding in some basement biker bar ghosting Putin's phone calls

;D

I sure as hell would too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 03, 2022, 03:55:28 PM
Are you a Night Wolf?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 03, 2022, 04:20:40 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 03, 2022, 03:55:28 PM
Are you a Night Wolf?

More like Mid-day Dachsund, if anything.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 03, 2022, 05:13:36 PM
 :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 03, 2022, 09:53:02 PM
I used to be a Night Wolf. But nowdays my food bowl's on the porch, so that's where I stay.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on April 04, 2022, 01:19:02 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 01, 2022, 09:06:14 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 01, 2022, 08:40:29 AM
Putin feels encroached upon by NATO and 'the West' led by the US. I know you know that already. Buried beneath the war crimes, the whole metaphysical oddity and all the bloodshed, Putin has made it clear that he thinks he has been wronged and betrayed by the West since the end of the Cold War. There are similarities to Russia now and Germany post WWI...even if genuine issues are being trumped up and threats exaggerrated ridiculously.

  Right.  I see the context.  What I don't get is how whatever the Russians are doing in Ukraine is supposed to help Russia with whatever its actual problems are.  I mean I guess I get that the Russians
feel bad about things, but I don't see how blowing up Ukraine makes them feel any better.  Or to put it another way, if the Russian problem is that they feel "wronged" -- I'm still not sure how blowing up
Ukraine makes them feel less "wronged."  Or to put it another way: did Russia have any real actual problem that blowing up the Ukraine might solve?  The question here revolves around "real problem"
and a "realistic" solution.  If there was no real problem (and I think that is the case -- there was no real problem) then there is no real solution.  I think the actual Russian problem is not one that
blowing up Ukraine can solve: their problem is that their social world has seriously departed from any significant connection with reality.  I think much
of what we see as their BS is not BS in the usual sense because that really is what their version of reality is.  Sure, it happens to coinside with BS and that's the Russian problem in a nutshell
and blowing up Ukraine does not save them from their own BS.
Argentina 1982

30,000 people gone missing. Food shortages. Wage problems. High inflation. "Hey - lets take back these wee islands and make the country happy again and forget what a bunch of murdering dickheads we are"

Sometimes, there's simply no accounting for decisions made by dictators.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on April 04, 2022, 01:41:40 AM
Sorry stuffed up quotes , will try again
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on April 04, 2022, 01:46:08 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 03, 2022, 02:34:01 PM
Quote from: planetbrain on April 02, 2022, 05:50:42 PM
Who takes weapons & supplies from western borders into Ukraine & how is this achieved?  How do Ukrainians get training for these weapons?
The weapons being shipped to Ukraine are primarily loaded into convoys assembled near the Eastern border of Poland and driven by Ukrainian drivers into Western Ukraine.  They arrive at towns like Lviv, and are then broken up into dispatch to Ukrainian units throughout Ukraine.

Most of the weapons being shipped into Ukraine are leftover Russian weapons held in former Warsaw Pact countries who are now NATO members.  So training needs are greatly reduced.  This is especially true for armor, vehicle-borne SAMs, and ammunition of all types, I think.  The anti-tank weapons have been a mix of older Soviet surplus stocks and American-made Stinger SAMs and Javelin anti-tank missile, along with the NLAWs mentioned in Gus' video above.  Those weapons typically require one and two-man crews and are mostly point-and-shoot weapons, so while some training is needed, it's not like they need to train them to fly F-18s or operate a nuclear submarine.

I've read reports that Americans (and presumably other NATO allies) are training some Ukrainian troops in Poland.  Details around what weapon systems they are being trained in are vague.  If I had to guess, they're probably embracing a "train the trainer" role for those lighter weapons.

I doubt that the US military has any folks actively serving in combat roles in Ukraine.  But I'd be astonished if we don't have some "non-sanctioned folks" (probably some combination of CIA operatives and US-trained mercs working at places like Blackwater) participating in Ukraine, probably helping to expedite the flood of intelligence being supplied by US assets outside Ukraine (or in orbit above Ukraine), gathering intelligence, and perhaps assisting in drone attacks as well. 
Quote
Yet we are apparently gobsmacked that Biden says a regime change in Russia is in order. :idiot2:

I think people are more gobsmacked that Biden said it, as opposed to that he's thinking it.  We're all thinking it.  But when a tyrant is losing a conventional war, he has stopped acting rationally, and he's still got the ability to launch 3,000 nuclear warheads at the rest of the world, talking about "regime change" seems tactically unwise.

Thanks.
I did think though that Ukraine is getting a lot more modern stuff than just leftover cold war.
As to Biden saying something so obviously factual, I think the reactions really silly, regardless of the politics, considering Putin has actually threatened the use of nukes. Surely that threat is far worse than Biden's quip.
Imagine meeting Putin at, say, a G20 summit or whatever & having to remain civil.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 04, 2022, 02:16:52 AM
Reports of a massacre and mass graves in the liberated town of Bucha:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/eu-leaders-condemn-killing-of-unarmed-civilians-in-bucha-and-kyiv
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 04, 2022, 02:41:40 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 04, 2022, 02:16:52 AM
Reports of a massacre and mass graves in the liberated town of Bucha:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/eu-leaders-condemn-killing-of-unarmed-civilians-in-bucha-and-kyiv

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/04/russia-seeks-un-security-council-meeting-on-bucha-ukraine-a77194
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220404-live-russia-denies-allegations-seeks-un-security-council-meet-on-bucha

Russia's deputy ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy to the United Nations 'In the light of heinous provocation of Ukrainian radicals in Bucha Russia requested a meeting of UN Security Council on Monday April 4 '

If you thought they couldn't be more hypocritical, they take it a few steps further. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 04, 2022, 07:09:50 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on April 03, 2022, 02:46:12 PM
Re: Seeming Russian behavior


  The Russians are leaving Sumy?  What's so odd about that is that:
1) I thought they took it on day 1 (but apparently never did)
2) Isn't that way east and aren't the Russians supposed to be overrunning the the eastern part of Ukraine?
2.5) "Actively withdrawing" ?  Instead of sort of vaguely shooting and murdering in all directions and so on?
3) I'm so confused


Russian forces are "actively withdrawing" from Sumy region, governor says
From CNN's Aliza Kassim

Russian forces are "actively withdrawing" from the Sumy Oblast in northeastern Ukraine, according to the regional governor, and taking their equipment with them.

Last week saw an influx of Russian troops between Bilopillya and Konotop — located to the northwest of the city of Sumy — where they "were shooting indiscriminately and terrorizing the population," said Dmytro Zhyvytsky, head of the regional administration in the Sumy region, on his Telegram channel on Sunday.

"Our troops were chasing them out of the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions and inflicting losses, Konotop area is not 100% free of the Russians. The Ukrainians are gradually finishing them off," Zhyvytsky said.
Sumy region lies 30 miles (48 kilometers) from the border with Russia and was one of the first cities to have been attacked as part of the Russian invasion.

The city of Sumy is where close to 1,700 students were forced to hide in their hostels as the invasion began.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 04, 2022, 12:54:55 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 03, 2022, 03:13:59 PM
The video Gus provided that shows the composition of the Russian Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) is interesting.  200 infantry sounds like a lean infantry count for a battle group that is also comprised of 10 tanks and 33 IFVs/AFVs.  That's particularly true if they are expected to move through country where small squads can fire NLAWs from almost a kilometer away or Javelins from a few kilometers away.

If I recall correctly, by 1942, Soviet practical experience corrected their original estimate of 40+ troops per tank, to somewhere around 85 troops per tank (spread among c&c, logistic support, direct/indirect arty support, and infantry support including scouting etc.)

Modern tech might have shortened or lengthened that tail, and the scales certainly aren't the same -- a tank platoon or company might be expected to be more infantry lean than an armored division -- but yeah that looks rather lean. But maybe flank and recon duties are supposed to be handled by other groups in close coordination with the BTG? If so, then part of the failure would be in c&c coordination between the groups (which matches some other things we've heard). What's the troop composition of an equivalent group of tanks in various modern western armies?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 04, 2022, 01:12:32 PM

Quote from: Dammit Carl! on April 03, 2022, 02:46:12 PM
Re: Seeming Russian behavior


Okay so Russia threatened Finland and Sweden (and everybody else on the planet but...)

Russian officials have warned of potential retaliation, in the form of military and political consequences, should Finland and Sweden join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

But since the real Russian message seems to be "Join NATO or die", it seems the Finns are going to try to joing NATO while the Russians are busy killing everybody in Ukraine.



  Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said Saturday that the country will make a decision on applying for NATO membership by the end of spring, because "Russia is not the neighbor we thought it was."

Finland's relations with Russia have changed in an "irreversible" way, said Marin, reversing course on earlier remarks that it would be "very unlikely" that Finland would apply for membership with the military alliance during her current term of office.

Russian officials have warned of potential retaliation, in the form of military and political consequences, should Finland and Sweden join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Sergei Belyaev, director of the Second European Department of Russia's Foreign Ministry, told Russia's state-run news agency Interfax that Finland and Sweden not joining NATO is "an important factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe."



Oh the irony...somehow the Russians are worried about important factors in ensuring stability in northern Europe, but it seems like joining NATO is a lot safer for Finland than waiting for the Russians to
finish killing everybody in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on April 04, 2022, 01:58:46 PM
Yeah the irony seems lost on me too. Threatening countries to not join an alliance to protect themselves from foreign aggression while actively invading a sovereign country.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 04, 2022, 02:33:10 PM
Starting to wonder how the Mannerheim Line currently looks...

Meanwhile the US strikes at the oligarchs! -- First yacht seized (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-120-million-tango-is-reportedly-the-first-superyacht-owned-by-a-russian-oligarch-to-be-seized-by-the-us/ar-AAVPYPL?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=ffdfb09fa1704c5ca0ea5e2ef753c48c) (The EU has gotten dozens already.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 04, 2022, 02:51:28 PM
I forget if this was already discussed in this thread, but what exactly is the plan turning these yachts back into cash?  It's not like there are a ton of buyers on the market for a $120 million customized superyacht.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 04, 2022, 03:00:54 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 04, 2022, 02:51:28 PM
I forget if this was already discussed in this thread, but what exactly is the plan turning these yachts back into cash?  It's not like there are a ton of buyers on the market for a $120 million customized superyacht.

They may be sold at judicial auction in which case they may be sold to the highest bidder, which may or may not be for FMV.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 04, 2022, 03:12:49 PM
Even if they don't sell the yachts, the purpose is to hit the oligarchs in their self-importance: that's cash-value now totally wasted by them.

Heck, I'd make a damn bonfire of their vanities, so to speak.  >:D Pile them in a deserted area and have a free-fire exhibition, broadcast live around the world. Several piles! -- this pile gets hellfired and FFAR'd by Apaches, this pile gets glassed by BUFFs, this pile gets Paladin'd, this pile gets Abram'd... Open the floor for requests!

Imagine the communists around the world trying to decide whether to cheer for that or not!  :DD \m/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 04, 2022, 04:42:57 PM
It's not entirely clear to me what kind of authority, power, control or influence these so called "oligarchs" wield with Putin and within the power centers of Russian government. It seems that there is a possibility that this is not entirely unlike a foreign power seizing assets of Jeff Bezos because of his influence over Joe Biden to pressure a change in policy. Not sure I see this as being impactful or morally justified.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 04, 2022, 06:15:52 PM
Well, they're more like the Russian mafia than Jeff Bezos -- being the Russian mafia -- which I assume is the main legal justification for the raids. But I don't know the details. Somewhere far upthread I posted a video I had found tracing Putin's past history with the mafia oligarchs and how that related to his current position.

I do know the theory is that doing this will provoke the mafia to clean house and set up someone else to do their dirty work (at least).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 04, 2022, 06:33:10 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 04, 2022, 06:15:52 PM
Well, they're more like the Russian mafia than Jeff Bezos -- being the Russian mafia -- which I assume is the main legal justification for the raids. But I don't know the details. Somewhere far upthread I posted a video I had found tracing Putin's past history with the mafia oligarchs and how that related to his current position.

I do know the theory is that doing this will provoke the mafia to clean house and set up someone else to do their dirty work (at least).

Where have you seen any information linking the Russian oligarchs that are being targeted by western sanctions to organized crime or the Russian mafia? They are all business or technology billionaires who made their fortunes during the Gorbachev reform era or during Yeltsin's presidency. I'm sure there is some nominal contact with the Russian underworld, but these guys have so much wealth (controlling nearly 35% of Russian money) that they have no need to be bothered with criminals.

The mafia, to the extent it is relevant, exists outside the state system and therefore cannot be targeted effectively by sanctions.

The business and tech oligarchs who are being sanctioned have much much more in common with Bezos, Zuckerberg, Musk, et al. than any member of the Russian mafia. They are very much public figures who own very large multi-national corporations.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 04, 2022, 07:00:54 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 04, 2022, 06:33:10 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 04, 2022, 06:15:52 PM
Well, they're more like the Russian mafia than Jeff Bezos -- being the Russian mafia -- which I assume is the main legal justification for the raids. But I don't know the details. Somewhere far upthread I posted a video I had found tracing Putin's past history with the mafia oligarchs and how that related to his current position.

I do know the theory is that doing this will provoke the mafia to clean house and set up someone else to do their dirty work (at least).

Where have you seen any information linking the Russian oligarchs that are being targeted by western sanctions to organized crime or the Russian mafia? They are all business or technology billionaires who made their fortunes during the Gorbachev reform era or during Yeltsin's presidency. I'm sure there is some nominal contact with the Russian underworld, but these guys have so much wealth (controlling nearly 35% of Russian money) that they have no need to be bothered with criminals.

The mafia, to the extent it is relevant, exists outside the state system and therefore cannot be targeted effectively by sanctions.

The business and tech oligarchs who are being sanctioned have much much more in common with Bezos, Zuckerberg, Musk, et al. than any member of the Russian mafia. They are very much public figures who own very large multi-national corporations.

I'm not sure about them literally being tied with an underground mafia, but I think he means they operate like a mafia, in the sense of being involved in illegal rackets and having a "kick up/skim" system where the guys higher in the food chain skim from the people beneath them, leading up to Putin as sort of the Overboss/Godfather type figure who gets the lion's share of the organization's skims.  From what I've read, Jason is not off-base by suggesting the organization of Putin and his oligarchs is basically the biggest Russian Mafia.  I also understand that they do this in a much more blatant and "open secret" manner which would bring down RICO charges in the United States these days if attempted by the likes of Bezos, Zuckerberg, and Musk, again hence the "Mafia" connection.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 04, 2022, 07:21:22 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 04, 2022, 03:00:54 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 04, 2022, 02:51:28 PM
I forget if this was already discussed in this thread, but what exactly is the plan turning these yachts back into cash?  It's not like there are a ton of buyers on the market for a $120 million customized superyacht.

They may be sold at judicial auction in which case they may be sold to the highest bidder, which may or may not be for FMV.

NATO should use them all for target practice in a well publicised sinkex.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 05, 2022, 07:58:53 AM
I've heard the targeted oligarchs described as being "Putin's cronies", "Putin's buddies", and "Putin's primary allies".  Many of  them nominally hold assets that actually belong to Putin.  They aren't captains of industry the way many in America see successful businessmen.

I've also heard them described as fellow kleptocrats who benefitted greatly from the corruption that Putin has embedded in Russia.  Nobody makes lots of money in that country without Putin's cooperation, and without paying tribute to Putin.  The thinking on these sanctions, when they were first rolled out after the invasion of Eastern Ukraine, was to target the Russian elites to try to undermine Putin's support.

The widespread thinking among diplomats, academics, and journalists is that this hasn't worked.  These oligarchs are essentially facing the decision:  "I own US$10,000,000,000 worth of stuff.  The West is now seizing half of it, so I only have $5,000,000,000 stuff.  Do I want to renounce Putin and lose the rest of it?"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 05, 2022, 08:30:17 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 05, 2022, 07:58:53 AM
I've heard the targeted oligarchs described as being "Putin's cronies", "Putin's buddies", and "Putin's primary allies".  Many of  them nominally hold assets that actually belong to Putin.  They aren't captains of industry the way many in America see successful businessmen.

I've also heard them described as fellow kleptocrats who benefitted greatly from the corruption that Putin has embedded in Russia.  Nobody makes lots of money in that country without Putin's cooperation, and without paying tribute to Putin.  The thinking on these sanctions, when they were first rolled out after the invasion of Eastern Ukraine, was to target the Russian elites to try to undermine Putin's support.

The widespread thinking among diplomats, academics, and journalists is that this hasn't worked.  These oligarchs are essentially facing the decision:  "I own US$10,000,000,000 worth of stuff.  The West is now seizing half of it, so I only have $5,000,000,000 stuff.  Do I want to renounce Putin and lose the rest of it?"

  I thought that in theory, the Oligarchs had some say in how the economy functioned -- I guess you could see them as purely dysfunctional, but Russia does have an actual economy and
somebody must be managing it.  So in theory, if the oligarchs are actually managing some aspects of the Russian economy, then sanctioning them could have a set of
very strange impacts on the economy.

  Of course, it may be that removing the Oligarchs and eventually Putin (assuming he gets kicked upstairs ie removed from having a direct say in economic management) might be very
good for the Russian economy since the profits would go into actual investment and not big boats in Italy.

   I would think that sanctioning the klepto-class (Putin and the Oligarchs) could literally shift the actual power in Russia from Putin and co. to the people who can actually manage things inside
Russia without shipping all the profits aboard.  This
might be invisible from the Western point of view, but the sanctions might result in an entirely different power structure in Russia
and no one would even need to tell Putin and company since
the new managers could just misinform the old kleptocratic regime and claim any problems were the result of the sanctions.  So rather than replacing or overthrowing Putin and the Oligarchs,
a new class of managers could simply take over under cover of the sanctions and just not tell Putin and the Oligarchs what was actually happening.  i guess they could leave the war on
autopilot and just ship megatons of HE to be fired into the Donbas for the next few decades
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 05, 2022, 08:36:12 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 05, 2022, 08:30:17 AM
  i guess they could leave the war on
autopilot and just ship megatons of HE to be fired into the Donbas for the next few decades

  Putin has a least one more plan (and the Russians have to do more than kill civilians all over the map this time so they may use chemical weapons and nukes if this offensive starts to stall ):


  NATO expects "very concentrated" Russian attacks in Donbas as war reaches a "crucial" phase
From CNN's James Frater and Amy Cassidy

NATO is expecting Russia to conduct a "very concentrated" attack in the east of Ukraine, with the aim of capturing the entire Donbas region, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday.

"We now see a significant movement of troops away from Kyiv to regroup, re-arm and re-supply, and a shift in focus to the east," he told reporters in Brussels.

"In the coming weeks we expect a further Russian push in the east and southern Ukraine, to try to take the entire Donbas and to create a land bridge to the occupied Crimea."
Pro-Russian separatists already control parts of the Donbas region. Fighting has endured there since 2014, and Russian President Vladimir Putin formally recognized the two breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent republics, just before the recent invasion began.

"So this is a crucial phase of the war," warned Stoltenberg.

Ukrainian Foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba will join NATO foreign ministers for a summit in Brussels Thursday, in which allies will "discuss what more they can do" as Ukraine "faces this new offensive", Stoltenberg said.

"Our allies are determined to provide further support to Ukraine, including anti-tank weapons, air defense systems and other equipment."


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2022, 08:47:46 AM
Here is an infographic of who the top Russian "oligarchs" are...they are real people, with real businesses. Sure, they take advantage of their connections with Putin, but the top players in western business and technology take advantage of their political connections and benefit from political corruption all the same. I'm not defending these guys, but they aren't mysterious boogie men of the Russian underworld, and I do not see them as being much different than the super rich in the US and Europe. they are all corrupt and wield far more influence and power than they should. 

(https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/russian-oligarchs-billionaires.jpg)


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 05, 2022, 08:52:37 AM
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-editorial-ukraine-identity-1.6407921

A Kremlin paper justifies erasing the Ukrainian identity, as Russia is accused of war crimes

An editorial in a prominent Kremlin media outlet appears to provide justification for the war with its call to erase the Ukrainian identity — language that geopolitical experts say is especially alarming after the discovery of dozens of dead civilians in a Kyiv suburb.
Written by Timofei Sergeitsev in RIA Novosti, the rhetoric in the editorial — entitled "What Russia should do in Ukraine" — is inflammatory, even by the usual Russian state media standards.
It claims the word "Ukraine" itself is synonymous with Nazism and cannot be allowed to exist.   
"Denazification is inevitably also De-Ukrainianization,"  Sergeitsev writes, stating that the idea of Ukrainian culture and identity is fake.

Yet Sergeitsev's editorial seizes on those words and takes them much further, writing that Ukraine's elite "must be liquidated as re-education is impossible" and since a "significant part of the masses ... are passive Nazis and accomplices," Russia's punishment of the Ukrainian people is justified.

A former Canadian ambassador to Ukraine said those words caused him significant concern, noting the editorial read like an instruction manual for Russian soldiers.

"It's essentially a rhetorical 'licence to kill,'" said Roman Waschuk, who continues to work closely with the Zelensky government in Ukraine.
"It says if someone strikes you as terribly Ukrainian, you can 'just off them' for the good of the cause."

The editorial was published on April 3, the same day as the bodies of at least dozens of civilians were discovered in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha after the retreat of Russian forces.     
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 05, 2022, 09:50:27 AM
'Liquidation'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 05, 2022, 09:52:30 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 04, 2022, 04:42:57 PM
It's not entirely clear to me what kind of authority, power, control or influence these so called "oligarchs" wield with Putin and within the power centers of Russian government. It seems that there is a possibility that this is not entirely unlike a foreign power seizing assets of Jeff Bezos because of his influence over Joe Biden to pressure a change in policy. Not sure I see this as being impactful or morally justified.

How they obtained their wealth cannot be morally justified either. So IMO its a wash.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2022, 10:17:19 AM
Quote from: Windigo on April 05, 2022, 09:52:30 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 04, 2022, 04:42:57 PM
It's not entirely clear to me what kind of authority, power, control or influence these so called "oligarchs" wield with Putin and within the power centers of Russian government. It seems that there is a possibility that this is not entirely unlike a foreign power seizing assets of Jeff Bezos because of his influence over Joe Biden to pressure a change in policy. Not sure I see this as being impactful or morally justified.

How they obtained their wealth cannot be morally justified either. So IMO its a wash.

Can you be more specific? How was their wealth acquired in such a morally reprehensible way that it would justify direct sanctions by foreign powers?  I'm asking not to pick a fight, but because it is not an issue I have done extensive research. To make a statement like the above, I'm assuming you have. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 05, 2022, 10:47:22 AM
The original Russian oligarchs got their start in the '90s, Winters said.
"When the Soviet Union broke down, there were an enormous number of state-owned assets and corporations and financial institutions, and a very small set of well-connected, smart, ambitious people basically grabbed those assets."
Assets in oil, in gas, in finance. The oligarchs became powerful, and when Putin became president, he had to break that power.
"Eventually, that involved putting some in jail," Winters said.

At the same time, Putin groomed a newer, different kind of oligarch, one whose wealth came from Putin and the access he granted to the coffers of the Russian state.
It would work something like this, according to Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of national security at the University of New Haven: "You would have a government deal and you would inflate your prices."
You would get overpaid by $500 million, he said. "The main oligarch would keep, you know, $300 million and use the other $200 million to dole out money to other people, including Vladimir Putin. And that was the deal, and that's how everybody got rich."

Some oligarchs were Putin's friends from his KGB days or his days as a deputy mayor of St. Petersburg. Whomever they were, their fortunes — and sometimes their lives — now depend on Putin.
"The richer they become, the more fearful they become — they have more money to lose," Åslund of the Stockholm Free World Forum said.


https://www.marketplace.org/2022/03/10/who-are-russian-oligarchs-being-sanctioned-how-did-they-get-so-rich/
https://theweek.com/politics/1012021/the-role-of-oligarchs-in-russia

A newer group of oligarchs became wealthy through their ties to Putin, who has ruled Russia in one form or another since 2000. Putin has alternately enriched and punished oligarchs, treating tycoons and their businesses as pawns in his political chess matches. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, then Russia's richest man, was arrested in 2003 for tax crimes after he supported Putin's political rival. (Khodorkovsky said the charges were fabricated; he was pardoned and released in 2013). However, many of today's oligarchs are current or former Putin officials. Yuri Kovalchuk, a longtime friend and advisor to Russia's leader, obtained large stakes in insurance and media companies through his ties to Putin.


While oligarchs' closeness to Putin varies, all rely on his patronage. "Given the way that the Russian economy is structured, so much depends either directly or indirectly on the state," says Brian Taylor, a political science professor at Syracuse University. Oligarchs "are not autonomous, economic actors who are in a position to stand up to the state or talk back to the state."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnhyatt/2022/03/14/what-is-an-oligarch-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-russias-billionaires/?sh=48907ae1271f

Putin offered the oligarchs a deal: bend to my authority, stay out of my way, and you can keep your mansions, superyachts, private jets, and multibillion-dollar corporations (corporations that, just a few years before, had been owned by the Russian government). In the coming years, the oligarchs who reneged on this deal and undermined Putin would be thrown into a Siberian prison or be forced into exile or die in suspicious circumstances. The loyalists who remained — and the new ones who got filthy rich during Putin's long reign — became like ATM machines for the president and his allies.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/03/29/1088886554/how-putin-conquered-russias-oligarchy?t=1649173429775
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Hot lead and dirty talk! on April 05, 2022, 11:44:15 AM
That was an extremely good post and sorted out a lot of things that I didn't understand.

Thanks
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 05, 2022, 12:08:29 PM
It's a twitter link but this is bonkers hidef video of a single Ukrainian tank ambushing a Russian convoy
This feels right out of combat mission and totally mad short ranges these guys are engaging at. Balls of titanium.
https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/status/1511376081407905793?s=21&t=_3unbpCANVlD0g124hR9ow
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 05, 2022, 04:04:13 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 04, 2022, 02:33:10 PM
Meanwhile the US strikes at the oligarchs! -- First yacht seized (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-120-million-tango-is-reportedly-the-first-superyacht-owned-by-a-russian-oligarch-to-be-seized-by-the-us/ar-AAVPYPL?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=ffdfb09fa1704c5ca0ea5e2ef753c48c) (The EU has gotten dozens already.)

Ukraine should just issue "letters of marque" that would clear the oceans of yachts pretty quickly...along with anything flying a Russian flag... The Russian navy would object...but somehow I don't see them as being ready to split up and run down a bunch of privateers.

I know the US Constitution gives Congress the power to issue them...and I believe the last time it was used was WWII...  But there are probably more modern treaties banning them... still would be nice to see.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2022, 04:29:35 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 05, 2022, 04:04:13 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 04, 2022, 02:33:10 PM
Meanwhile the US strikes at the oligarchs! -- First yacht seized (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-120-million-tango-is-reportedly-the-first-superyacht-owned-by-a-russian-oligarch-to-be-seized-by-the-us/ar-AAVPYPL?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=ffdfb09fa1704c5ca0ea5e2ef753c48c) (The EU has gotten dozens already.)

Ukraine should just issue "letters of marque" that would clear the oceans of yachts pretty quickly...along with anything flying a Russian flag... The Russian navy would object...but somehow I don't see them as being ready to split up and run down a bunch of privateers.

I know the US Constitution gives Congress the power to issue them...and I believe the last time it was used was WWII...  But there are probably more modern treaties banning them... still would be nice to see.

Although the Constitution enumerates Letters of Marque as an exclusive power of congress, Letters of Marque and Reprisal were abolished by the Treaty of Paris in the 1850s.

Just read that in February of 2022, House bill H.R. 6869 was introduced, and if passed would "[authorize] the President to issue letters of marque and reprisal" in relation to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. How do you like that?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 05, 2022, 04:58:15 PM
^That's frickin' awesome.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 05, 2022, 05:50:38 PM
The bill should enforce a strict buccaneer uniform code
1 parrot trained to say pieces of rubels
1 eye patch (2nd one optional)
1 hook for hand or 1 peg leg. Must be missing one appendage
Thick pirate beard.
Naval cutlass 1890 pattern
Outlandish hat with a feather
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 05, 2022, 05:56:02 PM
^ ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 05, 2022, 08:47:13 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2022, 04:29:35 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 05, 2022, 04:04:13 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 04, 2022, 02:33:10 PM
Meanwhile the US strikes at the oligarchs! -- First yacht seized (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-120-million-tango-is-reportedly-the-first-superyacht-owned-by-a-russian-oligarch-to-be-seized-by-the-us/ar-AAVPYPL?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=ffdfb09fa1704c5ca0ea5e2ef753c48c) (The EU has gotten dozens already.)

Ukraine should just issue "letters of marque" that would clear the oceans of yachts pretty quickly...along with anything flying a Russian flag... The Russian navy would object...but somehow I don't see them as being ready to split up and run down a bunch of privateers.

I know the US Constitution gives Congress the power to issue them...and I believe the last time it was used was WWII...  But there are probably more modern treaties banning them... still would be nice to see.

Although the Constitution enumerates Letters of Marque as an exclusive power of congress, Letters of Marque and Reprisal were abolished by the Treaty of Paris in the 1850s.

Just read that in February of 2022, House bill H.R. 6869 was introduced, and if passed would "[authorize] the President to issue letters of marque and reprisal" in relation to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. How do you like that?

If we signed a Treaty, and the US Senate ratified it, are we not bound by the terms of said treaty?  I guess we could break the treaty, but my sense is that we just send covert CIA operatives in to blow stuff up and don't screw around with the letters of marque any more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 05, 2022, 08:54:58 PM
interesting:
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/april/unleash-privateers

and JH, at this point I really dont care how many russians suffer under sanctions or how many oligarchs lose their money and their heads.
its been a shitstain upon the world for 100 years and needs to be torn apart and rebuilt.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 05, 2022, 10:18:55 PM
Let Loose the Groghead Navy I say! I volunteer as Quartermaster of the Rum Ration.  :arr:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 06, 2022, 06:01:54 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 05, 2022, 08:47:13 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2022, 04:29:35 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 05, 2022, 04:04:13 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 04, 2022, 02:33:10 PM
Meanwhile the US strikes at the oligarchs! -- First yacht seized (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-120-million-tango-is-reportedly-the-first-superyacht-owned-by-a-russian-oligarch-to-be-seized-by-the-us/ar-AAVPYPL?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=ffdfb09fa1704c5ca0ea5e2ef753c48c) (The EU has gotten dozens already.)

Ukraine should just issue "letters of marque" that would clear the oceans of yachts pretty quickly...along with anything flying a Russian flag... The Russian navy would object...but somehow I don't see them as being ready to split up and run down a bunch of privateers.

I know the US Constitution gives Congress the power to issue them...and I believe the last time it was used was WWII...  But there are probably more modern treaties banning them... still would be nice to see.

Although the Constitution enumerates Letters of Marque as an exclusive power of congress, Letters of Marque and Reprisal were abolished by the Treaty of Paris in the 1850s.

Just read that in February of 2022, House bill H.R. 6869 was introduced, and if passed would "[authorize] the President to issue letters of marque and reprisal" in relation to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. How do you like that?

If we signed a Treaty, and the US Senate ratified it, are we not bound by the terms of said treaty?  I guess we could break the treaty, but my sense is that we just send covert CIA operatives in to blow stuff up and don't screw around with the letters of marque any more.

We aren't formally a party, but we have formally declared (twice 1861 and 1898) that we will respect that declaration (part of the treaties that ended the Crimean War).  There was no Senate ratification
but the declaration has been respected by the US for a long time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 06, 2022, 09:04:39 AM
https://twitter.com/olgarithmic/status/1511277210493399045

My grandmother in Ukraine has dementia. Every morning she wakes up, turns on the TV and finds out war has begun. Mortified, she packs her bag and tries to evacuate the house. She's been in this never-ending loop for 41 days straight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on April 06, 2022, 09:19:19 AM
Czech Republic sending some heavy armor to Ukraine (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10691043/First-NATO-country-sends-tanks-Ukraine-Czech-Republic-provides-tanks-following-Zelenskys-plea.html)

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.dailymail.co.uk%2F1s%2F2022%2F04%2F06%2F10%2F56280487-10691043-The_delivery_is_understood_to_be_a_gift_agreed_on_by_NATO_allies-a-5_1649238630910.jpg&hash=cc46fcf5737909a4b824e9388c5cdbc1515d75f2)

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.dailymail.co.uk%2F1s%2F2022%2F04%2F06%2F10%2F56280491-10691043-The_Czech_Republic_has_become_the_first_NATO_country_to_send_tan-a-3_1649238630903.jpg&hash=5eb516db3b4a94cafccaab863dd1521cb31ab035)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 06, 2022, 09:41:32 AM
So are the Czechs sending those tanks outside of NATO to avoid a larger war?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 06, 2022, 09:56:51 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 06, 2022, 09:41:32 AM
So are the Czechs sending those tanks outside of NATO to avoid a larger war?

  Or maybe because the larger war is here already and it might go on for years.  Apparently, NATO says Finland and Sweden can join if they want to and the Russians
have said they will do something if that happens. Of course since Russia is already doing something in Ukraine, this might be a good time to ship all surplus Cold War
stuff to Ukraine and have everybody join NATO and see what
happens.  Apparently it might take years for Russia to kill everyone in Ukraine, so
why not join NATO now while they are busy in Ukraine?  They might not get to Finland until after they kill everyone in Moldovia, which might take a while.
The Czech Republic might be pretty far down on the list (it seems like the Russians would have to kill everybody in Sloviania or Slovokia or Poland or Estonia
and or Latvia and or Lithuania first.  But who's counting?  Might take decades.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 06, 2022, 10:16:13 AM
I saw too recent reports of Poland sending those much discussed MiGs...just wondering how.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 06, 2022, 10:19:43 AM
The key here is apart from Russian nuclear options (which based on their conventional missile failure rate) might be as low as only 40% effective.  Approx. 90% of all Russian military power is now concentrated in what remains of the invasion in Eastern Ukraine.

The BTGs that were withdrawn from the Northern part of the invasion are essentially combat ineffective (leading to the old joke - What do you call a Russian Tank Brigade returning from Ukraine - An infantry Platoon)
Their war material reserves of heavy equipment have been shown to be woefully poorly maintained and in many cases are only able to muster 10-20% of the stored tanks and apcs into something resembling operational ready
Their best trained and supplied divisions (the VDV) have been smashed in operations that looks like it was planned by my 10 year old.
Reservists are poorly trained, even more poorly motivated
Army morale is tenuous at best with Fragging incidents, mutinies and defections (helicopter pilot leaving for Ukraine) on the rise
Their logistics are shot to hell (when they were at their best they couldn't push 60 miles beyond their rail bridgeheads)and since the loss of so many trucks they ar now using civilian trucks leading to even more logistical problems by having no consistency in spare parts etc.
Their ability to repair and replace war material is shot due to lack of spares and access to critical materials such as chips etc.

Basically the Russians are like Spain with Nukes for a military.

Now if the Ukrainians can transition from Defensive to offensive capabilities and degrade the Russian army in the East as quickly as possible that will be the best way to get them to the negotiation table for real as opposed to the stalling negotiations they are doing now.  Look for those new switchblades loitering munitions to be put through their paces with attacks on supply areas/train depots and deeply emplaced artillery.  If that happens the Russians will be lucky if they can hold onto the territory that they gained in the 2014 invasion.



 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 06, 2022, 10:23:30 AM
Somewhere right now Starfury is laughing his ass off.

Are there are reliable numbers of Russian fragging incidents?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 06, 2022, 10:40:54 AM
The fragging incidents are somewhat isolated and sourced from Ukrainian intelligence.  That being said there is a good twitter thread that with some back of the number calculations says that the Ukrainian casualty reports for the Russians might be sport on.  If that is the case then other intelligence should not be dismissed as fog of war or propaganda from them.

Here is the twitter thread on the casualties
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1511399902265360385
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 06, 2022, 10:56:33 AM
As we saw with COVID, media coverage seems more broadly shaped by what draws clicks than what information seems accurate, reliable, or to present a complete picture.  Inject fog of war, and it gets even more confusing.

I have no doubt that, in this conflict, the Russians are the bad guys.  But, if you're in an active shooting war and you're not lying, you're not trying hard enough.  I'll be curious to see if we ever figure out, months or years from now, where the Ukrainians were cutting corners on telling the whole truth.  I'd do nothing less if I were in their shoes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on April 06, 2022, 10:59:13 AM
Was doing some poking around whilst shopping for t-shirts. 

https://www.amazon.com/Support-Ukraine-President-Zelensky-Ukrainian/dp/B09V3GK6KB/ref=sr_1_1?hvadid=590746072284&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9001998&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=b&hvrand=14041840941821078291&hvtargid=kwd-1641727548949&hydadcr=20669_9705450&keywords=president+zelensky+shirt&qid=1649260390&sr=8-1

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07G6Y52P2?_encoding=UTF8&customId=B07535YCL2

Interesting similarities. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 06, 2022, 12:21:29 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on April 06, 2022, 10:59:13 AM
Was doing some poking around whilst shopping for t-shirts. 

https://www.amazon.com/Support-Ukraine-President-Zelensky-Ukrainian/dp/B09V3GK6KB/ref=sr_1_1?hvadid=590746072284&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9001998&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=b&hvrand=14041840941821078291&hvtargid=kwd-1641727548949&hydadcr=20669_9705450&keywords=president+zelensky+shirt&qid=1649260390&sr=8-1

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07G6Y52P2?_encoding=UTF8&customId=B07535YCL2

Interesting similarities.

Again with the Nazi thing?  You're aware the modern German Army uses a variation of the iron cross as its logo, correct?  And it's not uncommon for other militaries to use similar crosses.  :crazy2:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at by pointing this out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 06, 2022, 01:20:49 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 06, 2022, 10:56:33 AM
As we saw with COVID, media coverage seems more broadly shaped by what draws clicks than what information seems accurate, reliable, or to present a complete picture.  Inject fog of war, and it gets even more confusing.

I have no doubt that, in this conflict, the Russians are the bad guys.  But, if you're in an active shooting war and you're not lying, you're not trying hard enough.  I'll be curious to see if we ever figure out, months or years from now, where the Ukrainians were cutting corners on telling the whole truth.  I'd do nothing less if I were in their shoes.

At least as relates to the reported atrocities in Bucha, The Google newsfeed answered my question raised here as soon as I toggled over to Google News. 

https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-russia-bucha-denials-false/31787136.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on April 06, 2022, 02:00:08 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 06, 2022, 12:21:29 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on April 06, 2022, 10:59:13 AM
Was doing some poking around whilst shopping for t-shirts. 

https://www.amazon.com/Support-Ukraine-President-Zelensky-Ukrainian/dp/B09V3GK6KB/ref=sr_1_1?hvadid=590746072284&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9001998&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=b&hvrand=14041840941821078291&hvtargid=kwd-1641727548949&hydadcr=20669_9705450&keywords=president+zelensky+shirt&qid=1649260390&sr=8-1

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07G6Y52P2?_encoding=UTF8&customId=B07535YCL2

Interesting similarities.

Again with the Nazi thing?  You're aware the modern German Army uses a variation of the iron cross as its logo, correct?  And it's not uncommon for other militaries to use similar crosses.  :crazy2:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at by pointing this out.

It just bugs me but I'm not sure why.

Also I just saw this from Bloomberg News.  Look at the flag in the first few seconds of the video.  It's got that same symbol hand drawn on it.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 06, 2022, 02:05:41 PM
That's the emblem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/zelenskyy-nazi-iron-cross/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 06, 2022, 03:28:31 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 06, 2022, 02:05:41 PM
That's the emblem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/zelenskyy-nazi-iron-cross/

As long as there are no skulls we're fine..

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 06, 2022, 03:39:11 PM
Meanwhile, at clown camp...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61008292

I was wondering why Zhironovsky hadn't made more noise lately. Now I know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 06, 2022, 03:51:36 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 06, 2022, 12:21:29 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on April 06, 2022, 10:59:13 AM
Was doing some poking around whilst shopping for t-shirts. 

https://www.amazon.com/Support-Ukraine-President-Zelensky-Ukrainian/dp/B09V3GK6KB/ref=sr_1_1?hvadid=590746072284&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9001998&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=b&hvrand=14041840941821078291&hvtargid=kwd-1641727548949&hydadcr=20669_9705450&keywords=president+zelensky+shirt&qid=1649260390&sr=8-1

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07G6Y52P2?_encoding=UTF8&customId=B07535YCL2

Interesting similarities.

Again with the Nazi thing?  You're aware the modern German Army uses a variation of the iron cross as its logo, correct?  And it's not uncommon for other militaries to use similar crosses.  :crazy2:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at by pointing this out.

Isn't the cross just a variety of Maltese Cross that goes back to the Hospitallers and the Crusades?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 06, 2022, 04:04:08 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 06, 2022, 03:51:36 PM

Isn't the cross just a variety of Maltese Cross that goes back to the Hospitallers and the Crusades?

Not exactly.  It's a cross pattée.  A Christian cross similar to the Maltese but with flat edges. 

It has a long history of use in heraldry in Europe, including Germany and a variant of it is the Iron Cross. 

It's very common in Eastern European monarchies with its use going back to the 1100's. 

France, Russia, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Georgia use it commonly in heraldry.

The Victoria Cross and Navy Cross both use the cross pattée

Ukraine puts theirs in red and has the trident of Vladimir the Great in the center.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 06, 2022, 04:19:34 PM
Interesting video on WWII vintage small arms used in the War in Ukraine.

and yes...the Mosin-Nagant is still a thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDd8NFftuXI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDd8NFftuXI)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 06, 2022, 05:38:45 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 06, 2022, 10:16:13 AM
I saw too recent reports of Poland sending those much discussed MiGs...just wondering how.

Couldn't they just be flown in by "volunteers?" With Poland bordering Ukraine, think it'd be a simple matter to filter in the MiGs by ones and twos to a spot just over the border at low altitude, and zip the "volunteers," home by bus. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 06, 2022, 06:25:47 PM
Quote from: Con on April 06, 2022, 10:40:54 AM
Here is the twitter thread on the casualties
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1511399902265360385

this guy sites Oryx as one of his sources and Ive mentioned him before.  his count only uses multi-point confirmation and is an excellent baseline number for both sides.
and yes Gus, it brings a smile to my face.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 06, 2022, 06:39:22 PM
I knew it would.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 06, 2022, 06:57:56 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on April 06, 2022, 05:38:45 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 06, 2022, 10:16:13 AM
I saw too recent reports of Poland sending those much discussed MiGs...just wondering how.

Couldn't they just be flown in by "volunteers?" With Poland bordering Ukraine, think it'd be a simple matter to filter in the MiGs by ones and twos to a spot just over the border at low altitude, and zip the "volunteers," home by bus.

  Or Ukrainian pilots could fly them out of Poland or whereever to airfields in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 06, 2022, 07:16:33 PM
Do we have actual confirmation that those Polish jets are now in the Ukrainian AF?  The initial objections that were raised were threefold:

1) The Polish planes needed to have retooled avionics to be useful for the Ukrainian AF.  (this is technically doable, but takes time)
2) The Polish planes were similar--but not identical--to what the Ukrainian pilots were trained on.  While the training curve here wasn't extraordinary, as one former US fighter pilot said, "Is there anywhere in Ukrainian air space that's safe for a pilot to get 5 hours of training time in the cockpit?"
3) NATO had concerns about flying planes out of NATO airbases into contested Ukrainian air space.  This was why the Poles didn't want to do it initially (and why the US subsequently balked at the Polish invitation to have them fly out of Ramstein AFB).

If those planes are now in the Ukrainian AF, my guess is that they've had time to work out the first two problems, and ongoing Russian atrocities have diminished NATO's concerns about the 3rd problem.  The fog of war rolls on... 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 06, 2022, 08:23:28 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 06, 2022, 07:16:33 PM
Do we have actual confirmation that those Polish jets are now in the Ukrainian AF?  The initial objections that were raised were threefold:

1) The Polish planes needed to have retooled avionics to be useful for the Ukrainian AF.  (this is technically doable, but takes time)
2) The Polish planes were similar--but not identical--to what the Ukrainian pilots were trained on.  While the training curve here wasn't extraordinary, as one former US fighter pilot said, "Is there anywhere in Ukrainian air space that's safe for a pilot to get 5 hours of training time in the cockpit?"
3) NATO had concerns about flying planes out of NATO airbases into contested Ukrainian air space.  This was why the Poles didn't want to do it initially (and why the US subsequently balked at the Polish invitation to have them fly out of Ramstein AFB).

If those planes are now in the Ukrainian AF, my guess is that they've had time to work out the first two problems, and ongoing Russian atrocities have diminished NATO's concerns about the 3rd problem.  The fog of war rolls on...

  It seems like NATO has gone from being very worried about what the Russians might do next, to feeling a bit guilty or just plain bad or behind the curve or inept
about not doing more sooner for five or six reasons:
1) It seems like the Russians are just going to do whatever it is they are doing no matter what unless something literally stops them as in more or less blows up their stuff
2) Now that the Russians are apparently going to launch something resembling an actual offensive, blowing things up massively is kind of where things are now and NATO has
not given much in terms of heavy weapons to Ukraine (eg, armor, artillery, aircraft, air defense systems)
3) Ukraine is taking one for the team, right?  A team they aren't even on, exactly.  Thanks to Ukraine's fight,
NATO can pull itself together and maybe expand to cover Finland while the Russians are busy in Ukraine
4) NATO is worried Ukraine might find a way to get a deal with the Russians (and why not since NATO isn't doing enough)
5) NATO doesn't need all that old Soviet stuff anyway so why not dump it into the Ukraine?
6) letting the Russians get away with murder and so on (ie not giving Ukraine adequate support) might encourage the Russians to use chemical weapons or nukes since it looks like
NATO is not very responsive to anything if massive slaughter and hammering at cities for weeks is okay with NATO, so why not use chemical weapons or nukes?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 06, 2022, 10:48:25 PM
I think NATO is still pretty damn worried about russian nukes.
they might only work at a 40% level but what western government wants to take a chance on that?
as much as it sucks, the path NATO and the US are taking is the best option at the moment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 07, 2022, 06:57:09 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 06, 2022, 10:48:25 PM
I think NATO is still pretty damn worried about russian nukes.
they might only work at a 40% level but what western government wants to take a chance on that?
as much as it sucks, the path NATO and the US are taking is the best option at the moment.

   Finland is considering joining NATO and (of Course) Russia is threatening them with total destruction -- which I guess might be bad, but a) maybe not and   -- b) you might get that anyway if you aren't
in NATO and c) Once Finland is in NATO, aren't they safe from total destruction?  It's kind of a weird set of choices and the only thing the Russians have made clear is actually "Join NATO or die."

   https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/finland-joining-nato-means-destruction-of-their-country-russian-lawmaker/ar-AAVXCin?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=6fcb389404304fd58bf42f307b46c991
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 07, 2022, 07:46:58 AM
^ What Russia is showing us is that while they are around in this form a stable peace in Europe has become impossible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 07, 2022, 09:28:15 AM
It almost seems like Russia wants all of Europe to encricle and destroy it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on April 07, 2022, 09:35:21 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 07, 2022, 09:28:15 AM
It almost seems like Russia wants all of Europe to encricle and destroy it.

I'm ok with that
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 07, 2022, 09:50:33 AM
Quote from: acctingman on April 07, 2022, 09:35:21 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 07, 2022, 09:28:15 AM
It almost seems like Russia wants all of Europe to encricle and destroy it.

I'm ok with that

If it hadn't been for nuclear weapons, NATO could have been peacekeeping in Moscow by now.



https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-commander-screams-soldiers-take-26656082
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ukraine-butscha-soldaten-besprachen-graeueltaten-gegen-zivilisten-ueber-funk-a-9e01662c-aa7e-4828-bf6f-f662d9b6164e
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10694101/Take-f-king-Russian-commander-orders-soldiers-shoot-Mariupol-civilians.html

Der Spiegel reports that German intelligence obtained communications between Russian soldiers in which, among other things, they admit to gunning down a civilian on a bicycle—a shocking murder that was captured in aerial footage recorded by Ukraine's military while Russian forces controlled the town.

In another conversation, a Russian commander reportedly orders his subordinate, "First question the soldiers, then shoot them!"

Germany's Federal Intelligence Service reportedly presented audio of the communications to lawmakers on Wednesday. The communications are said to match the locations of bodies found in the town and suggest that such executions of civilians are taking place in other Ukrainian cities, namely in areas surrounding besieged Mariupol.
The killings are described as part of a "clear strategy" to terrify civilians into submission.

Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group are suspected of taking part in the indiscriminate massacre of civilians, according to Der Spiegel.

Chilling new details on the slaughter of civilians were also provided by Bucha Mayor Anatoly Fedoruk on Thursday.
In a new interview with Deutsche Welle, he reveals that at least 90 percent of the 320 civilians killed were found with gunshot wounds, and not shrapnel injuries—meaning they were not simply caught up in shelling.


In a radio dispatch intercepted by Ukraine's SBU and published on the security service's official Facebook account, an unnamed soldier details the positions of non-combatants to nearby troops in a village near the southern port city.

His superior then demands: 'Take them all f**king out', before doubling down on his bloodcurdling instructions as the troop says that two people emerging from a nearby grove were dressed in 'civilian clothes'. The commander screams: 'Off them all, f**k!'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 07, 2022, 10:11:28 AM
Did these people see something they weren't supposed to, like the murder of other civilians? That's what it sounds like.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 07, 2022, 10:19:34 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 07, 2022, 10:11:28 AM
Did these people see something they weren't supposed to, like the murder of other civilians? That's what it sounds like.

Just frustration with high losses and part of a plan to brake resistance by targeting the population.

And don't ignore Russian propaganda describing a major part of the people as Nazis and too far gone to be reeducated.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 07, 2022, 01:56:51 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 07, 2022, 06:57:09 AM


   Finland is considering joining NATO and (of Course) Russia is threatening them with total destruction -- which I guess might be bad, but a) maybe not and   -- b) you might get that anyway if you aren't
in NATO and c) Once Finland is in NATO, aren't they safe from total destruction?  It's kind of a weird set of choices and the only thing the Russians have made clear is actually "Join NATO or die."



   And, Oh no, the Ukrainians are not surrendering and maybe they will take back whatever the Russians have taken even in 2014:

  Russian official accuses Ukraine of changing demands since the 2 sides met in Istanbul
From CNN's Uliana Pavlova iand Martin Goillandeau

On Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Ukrainian negotiators of changing the most important provisions that both sides had agreed upon during Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul last month.

Lavrov said that a draft agreement presented on Wednesday by Ukrainian negotiators "showed a departure from the most important provisions fixed at the meeting in Istanbul," adding that the new Ukrainian draft agreement did not include an earlier proposal by Kyiv to exclude Crimea and Sebastopol from the future security guarantees Ukraine is demanding.

Lavrov also said Ukrainians suggested that "the problems of Crimea and Donbas should be brought to the meeting of the presidents of Russia and Ukraine," a proposal deemed "unacceptable" by Russia, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that such a meeting is possible only after the cessation of hostilities.

"At the next stage, the Ukrainian side will certainly ask for the withdrawal of troops and will put forward new preconditions," Lavrov said.

According to the Russian Foreign Minister, the Ukrainian side has also changed its stance on a provision that Moscow could oppose any future military maneuvers involving foreign forces in Ukrainian territory.

Lavrov said that the inability to find a negotiated agreement with Ukraine "demonstrates the true intentions of Kyiv, its line to drag on and even make the negotiations fail, rejecting the agreements that had been found."

"We see this as a manifestation of the fact that the Kyiv regime is controlled by Washington and its allies, who are pushing President Zelensky to continue hostilities," he added.
Lavrov said the Russian delegation would "continue the negotiation process," promoting its draft agreement, which according to Lavrov "clearly and in full, sets out all the key positions and demands."

Lavrov did not reveal the details of that draft agreement.

   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 07, 2022, 01:58:19 PM
Russian officials making eye-crossing statements that conflict with reality and only apply to some fantasy world while blaming everyone else for their failed invasion?  Must be a day ending in Y.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 07, 2022, 02:07:14 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 07, 2022, 01:58:19 PM
Russian officials making eye-crossing statements that conflict with reality and only apply to some fantasy world while blaming everyone else for their failed invasion?  Must be a day ending in Y.

  This thing about "negotiations" is really twisted.  For example, why shouldn't the Ukrainians put more trust in the USA than in Russia?  At least the USA isn't attacking them.

   For another -- why didn't the Russians make a deal back when they hadn't started blasting Ukraine to bits?  Plenty of nice deals could have been done about 3 or 4 weeks ago.  It's a bit
late now to threaten Ukraine, moreover, Ukraine probably scents blood -- maybe they can just gradually beat the Russians (seems unlikely, but I'm not Ukrainian) and get everything.

   For another -- the Russian position was a lot better before they launched this war.  That's pretty obvious.  So why not take a deal now?  Are the Russians really going to be that much better
off in a few weeks?  Possibly.  Will they end the war then?  Probably not because there's still no way Ukraine can trust them.  Will the Russians be better off in six weeks?  Who knows?
But why blame the Ukrainians for fighting on?  Given they have already been blasted and still can't trust the Russians and are getting some kind of support from NATO.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 07, 2022, 02:09:48 PM
You nailed it.  The BS coming out of their mouths is so many layers deep that it can be difficult to elucidate just how much is wrong with what they're claiming.

Reminds me of the Sopranos quote.  "Some people are so far behind, they really think they're in the lead."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 07, 2022, 02:47:29 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 07, 2022, 01:56:51 PM
At the next stage, the Ukrainian side will certainly ask for the withdrawal of troops

How dare they ask their country back :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 07, 2022, 03:07:48 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 07, 2022, 02:09:48 PM
You nailed it.  The BS coming out of their mouths is so many layers deep that it can be difficult to elucidate just how much is wrong with what they're claiming.

Reminds me of the Sopranos quote.  "Some people are so far behind, they really think they're in the lead."

  And "consequences":

  Russia circulated note threatening "consequences" ahead of UN Human Rights Council vote, sources say
From CNN's Nima Elbagir and Barbara Arvanitidis in Lviv

Russia circulated a note to member states threatening "consequences" ahead of the vote for the US-led push to suspend Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council, according to multiple sources at the council.

The note, shared with CNN, stated, "It is worth mentioning that not only support for such an initiative, but also an equidistant position in the vote (abstention or non-participation) will be considered as an unfriendly gesture."

The United Nations General Assembly voted to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council during a meeting Thursday. The vote was 93 in favor of the move and 24 against the action, with 58 abstentions.


  So threatening even the abstainers...threatening 151 UN members with "consequences"...maybe not the most diplomatic move?  Especially since they have to finish administering "consequences" to
Ukraine and Finland and Estonia etc.etc.etc. befoe they can get to the other hundred or so.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 07, 2022, 03:12:17 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 07, 2022, 02:47:29 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 07, 2022, 01:56:51 PM
At the next stage, the Ukrainian side will certainly ask for the withdrawal of troops

How dare they ask their country back :idiot2:

  And what's the endgame here?  Even if Russia eventually completely destroys and overruns and occupies Ukraine -- if they want the sanctions lifted, they will have to leave it all and probably
let whatever they leave behind join NATO.  So what is the point?  They can't even get a deal out of the Ukrainians anymore.  You'd think that would be a pretty clear message that they should never
have started this mess to begin with when even their main victim seems to think they can bully the Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 07, 2022, 03:16:12 PM
The nations that voted no to the resolution, in alphabetical order :

Algeria
Belarus
Bolivia
Burundi
Central African Republic
China
Congo
Cuba
North Korea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Iran
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Laos
Mali
Nicaragua
Russia
Syria
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Vietnam
Zimbabwe
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2022, 06:24:24 PM
added to my greatest hits list.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1512055547801088010
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 07, 2022, 06:57:47 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2022, 06:24:24 PM
added to my greatest hits list.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1512055547801088010

  If that is from today from Mariupol, then what is going on in Maruipol?  (As one of the comments says).  Good Grief, if the Russians can't even take Maruipol after attacking it from all sides and bombarding
it for 40 days...I'm astounded.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2022, 06:59:45 PM
its from the last 2 hours and was geolocated in a western downtown suburb/district.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 07, 2022, 07:03:11 PM
We know that Russian military hardware seems to work pretty well...  in the hands of Ukrainian defenders.

Military dimensions aside, the magnitude of the humanitarian disaster here will, I think, dwarf human comprehension.  The quickest end to it will be kicking the Russians out of Ukraine.

If that does happen, and a peace treaty is signed, I wonder how long before the Germans and the rest of the Europeans go back to enthusiastically importing Russian oil and LNG?

Am I the only one who thinks that we need to give NATO a more geographically correct name.  Maybe something like "NABEMTO" or "NAETO" or just "the Russia sucks TO"?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 07, 2022, 07:13:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2022, 06:24:24 PM
added to my greatest hits list.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1512055547801088010

What is that? A 30mm auto cannon giving it to them up the rear?  BTR-4 maybe? Can't actually see what is firing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2022, 07:17:41 PM
100% correct
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2022, 07:30:17 PM
(https://scontent.fmia1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/278088029_170342262004588_6938535804505419888_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=5cd70e&_nc_ohc=IZPQKuwNttwAX97sOcL&tn=L7TwarEgvYSN3rJv&_nc_ht=scontent.fmia1-2.fna&oh=00_AT-_1cFj2a_mw2DOYLRXh1mb88lwfcJ5EkPP_kBkzLk0fQ&oe=6255257B)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 07, 2022, 08:28:45 PM
^ ;D

BTW did Bolivia forget what hemisphere they're in? WTF?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 08, 2022, 05:57:26 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2022, 06:59:45 PM
its from the last 2 hours and was geolocated in a western downtown suburb/district.

   CNN has changed the colors on the situation maps of Ukraine.  Now all areas of Russian occupation are the same color -- no special color for LNR, DNR and Crimea, so
Russia seems to have lost its earlier claims and their occupied region is just that -- a region occupied by Russian forces.  I guess that is realistic, though it might imply
Russian occupation is expected to expand and remain for the foreseeable future or they might have to give it all back in the end.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 08, 2022, 08:00:36 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61032786

Thirty-nine people were reportedly killed after two rockets hit Kramatorsk train station, according to the region's governor.
Writing on Telegram, Pavlo Kyrylenko said the death toll had risen to 39, and that 87 people had also been wounded during the shelling.
He added that many had suffered serious wounds.
There are differing figures emerging from Ukraine about the total number wounded in the attack, with President Zelensky saying around 300 were injured.


Surprise : Russia has denied involvement in the strikes on the railway station in Kramatorsk.
The country's defence ministry said accusations that Russia had attacked the station were "a provocation" and "absolutely untrue".

But : A few minutes before it became clear that women, children and elderly people were among the at least 39 dead and nearly 100 known to be injured when a missile struck the Kramatorsk train station in eastern Ukraine, Russian soldiers were bragging about the hit on Telegram.
Minutes later, the messages, which included claims to have successfully obliterated "a crowd of Ukrainian militants at the Kramatorsk railway station," were edited or disappeared altogether, according to several accounts by journalists in the region.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 08, 2022, 09:29:21 AM
Pink Floyd have reunited to record a protest song:



More info here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-61037080
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 08, 2022, 09:43:12 AM
^its shit like this that pisses me off.

There's been a war in Yemen since 2015. The UN estimates that 233,000 civilians have been killed. Over 4,000,000 have been displaced. Over 5,000,000 are in immediate threat of starving. Over 20,000,000 are in need of some form of urgent humanitarian assistance.

Where the hell is the media and Pink Floyd on that crisis?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 08, 2022, 09:45:17 AM
Agreed. Also war in Africa (Ethiopia) and elsewhere.

I love Pink Floyd and always will but 'instant' songs about new horrible things kind of ring hollow to me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 08, 2022, 10:01:21 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 08, 2022, 09:43:12 AM
Where the hell is the media and Pink Floyd on that crisis?

In their defense, there is a link with Ukraine : guitarist David Gilmour has a Ukrainian daughter-in-law and Ukrainian grandchildren.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 08, 2022, 10:36:29 AM
The Uighurs must be wondering where their songs are?  :-X
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 08, 2022, 10:47:14 AM
^Yeah them too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 08, 2022, 10:51:50 AM
All of the above said, the Ukrainian singer has one hell of a good voice.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 08, 2022, 12:31:57 PM
https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1512340125002440705

Russian state TV has taken a video from the set of a Russian series filmed near St Petersburg on 20 March and told viewers that it shows Ukrainians preparing fake corpses for the scene of a "staged" attack by Russian forces on Ukrainian civilians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 08, 2022, 12:47:37 PM
 :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 08, 2022, 12:57:55 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 07, 2022, 08:28:45 PM
BTW did Bolivia forget what hemisphere they're in? WTF?

Cuban connections I'm guessing. (Not surprisingly, Cuba also voted no.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 08, 2022, 01:41:23 PM
I'm trying to remember the last time I read a reference to Bolivia anywhere...other than here.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on April 08, 2022, 02:21:44 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 08, 2022, 01:41:23 PM
I'm trying to remember the last time I read a reference to Bolivia anywhere...other than here.

High school history talking about Simon Bolivar?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 08, 2022, 02:23:28 PM
The 'George Washington of South America'? Probably.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 08, 2022, 02:36:43 PM
Didn't he throw a Peso across the Amazon River?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 08, 2022, 02:41:22 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 08, 2022, 10:01:21 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 08, 2022, 09:43:12 AM
Where the hell is the media and Pink Floyd on that crisis?

In their defense, there is a link with Ukraine : guitarist David Gilmour has a Ukrainian daughter-in-law and Ukrainian grandchildren.

The fact that Khlyvniuk was a member of a successful US-based band who returned to Ukraine to defend his country, but is seen wearing a Yankees hat in Kiev, makes it even more poignant for a North American audience, I think.

Gilmour also knew Khlyvniuk from his performance (Gilmour had performed with Boombox at a London concert in 2015) and contacted him for permission to feature the video in his own release.  For those of you who haven't seen the original video that Khlyvniuk posted (which PF used in their video) on Instagram, it's quite moving:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYpOrwksgbA
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 08, 2022, 04:50:44 PM
Ukraine's 'iron general' - credited with leading Ukrainian armed forces against the current Russian onslaught and surviving:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/08/ukraines-iron-general-zaluzhnyy-00023901
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 08, 2022, 05:02:31 PM
Russian troops actually made Chernobyl facilities MORE radioactive than they were before the invasion:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/08/europe/chernobyl-russian-withdrawal-intl-cmd/index.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on April 08, 2022, 06:14:20 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 08, 2022, 09:43:12 AM
^its shit like this that pisses me off.

There's been a war in Yemen since 2015. The UN estimates that 233,000 civilians have been killed. Over 4,000,000 have been displaced. Over 5,000,000 are in immediate threat of starving. Over 20,000,000 are in need of some form of urgent humanitarian assistance.

Where the hell is the media and Pink Floyd on that crisis?

I totally agree and hate it has to be like this, I mean we looked the other way when putin was leveling aleppo and assad was nerve gasing his people.  But Ukraine is prime time, and out rages the western world when it happens in their back yard. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 08, 2022, 07:51:01 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 08, 2022, 09:43:12 AM
^its shit like this that pisses me off.

There's been a war in Yemen since 2015. The UN estimates that 233,000 civilians have been killed. Over 4,000,000 have been displaced. Over 5,000,000 are in immediate threat of starving. Over 20,000,000 are in need of some form of urgent humanitarian assistance.

Where the hell is the media and Pink Floyd on that crisis?

I could state the obvious but
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 08, 2022, 08:22:38 PM
The amount of merch being sold to profit from the conflict is also disgusting.  Show off your support for Ukraine in style by buying a gaudy print-on-demand stylized flag on a T-shirt that Ukraine won't see a cent from.  Now in trendy pins, hats, coffee mugs, and stickers!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 08, 2022, 09:31:10 PM
same thing happens with every major crisis.  not excusing it at all, but it happens.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 08, 2022, 09:43:00 PM
Matt Williams, 26-yo ANZAC veteran, separated from the Australian Army due to inoperable brain cancer, now working as an amateur investigative journalist, was on the ground in Ukraine recently, and has an interview about his experiences with Lauren Southern.

First 10 minutes is introduction to Matt and his history, if you want to skip that.

Lauren is certainly a political commentator and investigator, but I didn't catch anything along that line during this interview. (The closest might be that the mainstream media is losing ground due partly to regular people being out on the ground doing their own investigating. But their disdain for main news journalists is pretty centrist.)

Nothing overly new to any of us, though Lauren didn't realize most of the Ukr equipment is also Soviet/Russian based (so that was news to her).

His impression on the ground is that no one can say who's winning, if anyone is -- as far as he's concerned the logistic argument against Russia amounts to a lie, because they have no problem hammering everywhere with as much arty as they want. (Which no one disputes, but that's not really evidence that Russia's logistics on the "special operation" have been flimsy from the start and wearing out fast, of course.)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 08, 2022, 10:42:12 PM
To be sure, there is a double-standard here as relates to North American and Western European responses to what's going on in Ukraine.

The only factor that I can offer up, and I know the reality is more complicated than that, but this looks much more like a full-scale invasion of a sovereign nation, as opposed to a civil war where different countries have backed different factions. 

To the civilians caught in the crossfire in places like Syria or the ISIS Caliphate, I'm sure it felt no different.  But, to outsiders used to living in a world where national governments of sovereign nations enjoy a certain amount of stability and (sometimes) even legitimacy, the factionalized fighting in places like Afghanistan and Syria simply never made much sense to us.  Right or wrong, it's easier for us to understand fights when each side waves a recognizable flag.

I'm not making excuses for the Americans or the Western Europeans. 

In this particular case, I just think you may be oversimplifying the stance of Pink Floyd and their own personal connection to the Ukraine conflict.  I agree that the war profiteering is gross.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 09, 2022, 12:03:56 AM
its northern hemisphere real-polotik
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on April 09, 2022, 02:26:49 AM
In my view the Russia Ukraine war (special military operation) is clear cut. It's us versus them. So we take a personal interest.
There are many other ongoing conflicts causing very much misery. There always has been & probably always will be (esp. The Middle East). The reasons for these endless conflicts/civil wars is often foggy. A country invading another without valid casus belli . I think it's easy to see the wrong.

By the way I believe Xi Jinping is right re his one China policy..............Mainland China should join Taiwan & become democratic !
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 09, 2022, 09:53:30 AM
^HA on that last point
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 09, 2022, 10:44:37 AM
Quote from: planetbrain on April 09, 2022, 02:26:49 AM
In my view the Russia Ukraine war (special military operation) is clear cut. It's us versus them. So we take a personal interest.
There are many other ongoing conflicts causing very much misery. There always has been & probably always will be (esp. The Middle East). The reasons for these endless conflicts/civil wars is often foggy. A country invading another without valid casus belli . I think it's easy to see the wrong.

Ask people who is fighting who in Jemen and which countries are supporting that fight and you will not get many, if any, correct answers.
The war in Ukraine is, like you said, so much clearer about which is the better side to support.  And for us in the EU there still is a chance the war will spread to other countries, while that risk is virtually zero with other conflicts going on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 09, 2022, 12:31:43 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 08, 2022, 08:22:38 PM
The amount of merch being sold to profit from the conflict is also disgusting.  Show off your support for Ukraine in style by buying a gaudy print-on-demand stylized flag on a T-shirt that Ukraine won't see a cent from.  Now in trendy pins, hats, coffee mugs, and stickers!

Except for urinal mints being sold with Vladimir Putin's face on them.  Anybody making money by putting a tyrant's face on a urinal mint is an inherently commendable free market exercise.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 09, 2022, 01:35:03 PM
^Please tell me those exist.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on April 09, 2022, 03:22:04 PM
I'd buy them. Pissing on Vlad would make a leak especially satisfying.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 09, 2022, 04:14:10 PM
Not sure if this one is 'minty.'

(https://preview.redd.it/q42flczxs6k81.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=5c52a6faac38c9b40bd521ee0ad5ec4a65079226)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 09, 2022, 05:52:01 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 09, 2022, 01:35:03 PM
^Please tell me those exist.

I first read about a guy printing Osama bin Laden's face on urinal cakes back in early 2002.  Nowadays the emphasis seems to be shifting to placing the face or logo on the urinal screen that holds the mint:

1) https://www.peepeeface.com/order/index.php

2)https://www.deluxe.com/products/promotional/urinal-cake/11357/

While this isn't as satisfying as a free-standing urinal mint with a printed face on it, it does allow for full-color printing and greater durability.  You know, that whole "reduce, reuse, recycle" thing...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 09, 2022, 08:36:52 PM
 :2funny: 'peepeeface'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on April 10, 2022, 01:43:41 AM
 ^ a pissful protest   ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 10, 2022, 09:19:14 AM
^ 'Mostly'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 10, 2022, 05:54:08 PM
American combat veteran Matt Gallagher, who trained Ukrainians to defend themselves, talks about foreigners volunteering to fight the Russians:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/10/opinion/us-veterans-ukraine.html

'The Ukrainian Foreign Legion currently has around 20,000 troops, 3,000 of which are American.'

'There's little doubt an American captive, particularly a veteran, would be a propaganda coup for the Kremlin. It's also plausible that a veteran would be treated as a combatant, regardless of his or her actual work in Ukraine. There must now be thousands of Americans in the country, working in both military and humanitarian capacities. I fear it's a matter of when, not if, one of them falls into Russian hands and becomes the main character in a cautionary tale.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 11, 2022, 09:10:46 AM
why the russian BTG concept sucks:

https://twitter.com/dupuyinstitute/status/1513243631066439691
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 11, 2022, 11:13:59 AM
Excellent content, Star!  Thanks for sharing.

In other news, this is an interesting analysis of how Germany could easily end its dependence on Russian natural gas by the end of 2023, but it involves re-embracing nuclear power, which seems like a political no-no within the current German political structure after what happened in Fukushima.  The author is wicked smart but sometimes long-winded.

https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/why-germany-wont-keep-its-nuclear?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo4MDQwMjQ2LCJwb3N0X2lkIjo1MjAwNzEwMSwiXyI6ImhuUXA5IiwiaWF0IjoxNjQ5NjkzMTY5LCJleHAiOjE2NDk2OTY3NjksImlzcyI6InB1Yi0zNDc1MzMiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.3J-PIGpnmO09nb48a_pCrUg3Y8fiUsZ8Eq9occl1r-4&s=r
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 11, 2022, 12:41:50 PM
Star as usual scores again!  :notworthy:

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 11, 2022, 09:10:46 AM
why the russian BTG concept sucks:
https://twitter.com/dupuyinstitute/status/1513243631066439691

Quote(11) It will take a thorough analysis to determine if the performance of the BTGs is due to inherent flaws in Russian Army personnel and training or flaws in their doctrinal approach. Again, both are probably culpable.

No doubt, plus logistic problems including maintenance. (I doubt these flaws are doctrinal outgrowths, in any official way, although maintenance could be a training flaw.)

The comment thread is pretty good, too. Though if anyone wants to see the original tweets as one post, they've unrolled it here (without comments): https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513243631066439691.html

Michael Koffman's April 3rd analysis (which may have already been linked to upthread) is still relevant: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510681888700215307.html

QuoteMoscow is trying to fight a war with the largest country in Europe {NB: by land area} without declaring a state of war at home. Ukraine has fully mobilized, and has extensive Western support. Russia may technically have more manpower and materiel on paper, but it is politically inaccessible. 3/

This is a reference to manpower reserves not being mobilized; the standing army is going in, and new recruits are being drafted to supplement them, but the official reserves aren't being mobilized. The political point of mobilization in Russian history since before WW2 (via Shaposhnikov), remember, is that mobilization IS war -- there can be no partial mobilization, and those troops will be used somewhere, even if the politicians would rather not later. "Don't play games with mobilization." This is also no doubt part of the point to calling this invasion a "special operation". In short, Russian mobilization would be the same as World War III, one way or another. But then also, I seriously doubt they have the logistic capability to support official mobilization anyway: they've overstretched their capabilities already.

(On the other hand, they now have rather less logistical strain due to having a lot fewer vehicles than before, not to say manpower...  >:D )

Koffman notes later in his thread, some ways in which Russia is trying to get around the no-mobilization political quandry.

Concurrently with TDI's analysis of the failure of the Russian BTGs due to being manpower-lean by design, Koffman thinks that the manpower has been only 75% of the lean design! Compare this with the famous Stalin Line of the USSR before 1939 (when Stalin started dismantling it after Hitler invaded Poland): the Fortified Sectors were designed to provide a corps' worth of firepower but manned by a division or even a brigade, but the obvious big difference is that the manpower was designed to fight on defense with extremely well-protected interior lines of support, at the most dangerous end of a modernized Slavic motte-defense security corridor -- practically the opposite of a modern Russian BTG force design.

Maybe this could have been rectified if they had focused on two large mutually supporting thrusts toward a target like Kiev, bringing along something like interior lines of overlapping support between them; but they'd still be stuck low on manpower trying to assault Kiev. A low-manpower defense can work; a low-manpower offense.... eh...

Reportedly, there's an 8-mile long convoy revving up now for the next 'phase' of invasion. We'll see what, if anything, the Russians have learned, too late or not for them. (I'd provide a link to the article, but the link has disappeared since I last saw it.  ??? If I manage to run across it again, I'll post it up.)

Hopefully what they learned was, "Never get involved in a land war in Asia, when death is on in the line! BWA HA HA BWA HA HA HAAAurk--"  :D \m/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 11, 2022, 12:51:58 PM
From two comments on the TDI thread: "One problem I see was the numbers of BTGs deployed. The BTG numbers exceeded 100 and I doubt that their parent Divisions, far behind and lacking actual Theatre command, knew where all of them were - hence coordination and logistics fails.
10:01 PM · Apr 10, 2022"

"Agreed. Trucks going all the way back to Div/Corps for supplies from each BTG is a massive duplication of effort and clogs the roads.  Having Bde/Regt as relay stores between BTG and Div/Corps increases transport productivity and supply responsiveness to the frontline.
3:32 AM · Apr 11, 2022"

That subthread is well worth reading in its own right: https://twitter.com/Musso01A/status/1513351440391348225

The original poster's most recent comment is that the BTGs were supposed to relieve the airborne assault force at the airport(s), which would normally be slated for the first 36 hours. This is a little backwards from an ideal assault in Russian doctrine, however: first, close-air support suppresses airport defenses (not sure that was done at all or how well); then paratroops take the airport (technically done); then the main airborne assault division elements land by glider and cargo transport (but the Uks overran the paratroops first!  :clap: :notworthy: so I'm not sure if anything was even sent by air??); THEN your forward element assault on the ground is supposed to arrive catching any enemy defenders in a crossfire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 11, 2022, 01:08:47 PM
Kind of doubt this is from that "8-mile convoy", even though posted only two hours ago by the Sun -- but hopefully this is what we can expect!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 11, 2022, 01:51:39 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 11, 2022, 12:41:50 PM
...


Hopefully what they learned was, "Never get involved in a land war in Asia, when death is on in the line! BWA HA HA BWA HA HA HAAAurk--"  :D \m/

Just because you mentioned it, and it is a classic:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 11, 2022, 01:59:47 PM
^ ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 11, 2022, 02:37:54 PM
I always thought classic combined arms doctrine was that infantry and artillery units lead the initial assault (with some tank support), and then the heavier concentration of tank units is massed behind the original attack to exploit the original breakthrough?  Has that changed in the last 85 years?  Or were the Russians just expecting low-intensity warfare and they weren't prepared for high-intensity warfare.

Jason, my understanding is that the initial airborne assault at the airport didn't go as smoothly as planned for a couple reasons.  The key reason (as you suggest) is that the ground columns didn't arrive in time to relieve them (similar to Market Garden in Arnhem in WW II), but it was complicated by 2 or 3 other factors that the Russians got wrong:

1) Ukrainian units near the airport fought back hard and quickly.

2) Local SAM assets (details unknown) proved more durable and effective at preventing aerial reinforcement for the brief period of time when the Russians apparently had control of the airport.  I remember reading unconfirmed reports of several large Russian transport planes being shot down in an effort to reinforce that initial airborne assault.  My guess is that this was a prelude to the same small-unit initiative and tactics that choked Russian logistical supplies in the assault on Kiev.

3) I've read that the airborne assault vehicles simply didn't have the ability to withstand the firepower of hand-held antitank weapons, but no specifics on that were ever supplied.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 11, 2022, 04:49:55 PM
I have heard an early, very initial and unverified report that Russia has used chemical weapons in Mariupol...



uh oh...


may be legit if the majors have picked it up.
https://www.newsweek.com/ukrainian-battalion-accuses-russia-using-chemical-weapons-civilians-1697052 (https://www.newsweek.com/ukrainian-battalion-accuses-russia-using-chemical-weapons-civilians-1697052)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on April 11, 2022, 05:01:33 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 11, 2022, 04:49:55 PM
I have heard an early, very initial and unverified report that Russia has used chemical weapons in Mariupol...



uh oh...


may be legit if the majors have picked it up.
https://www.newsweek.com/ukrainian-battalion-accuses-russia-using-chemical-weapons-civilians-1697052 (https://www.newsweek.com/ukrainian-battalion-accuses-russia-using-chemical-weapons-civilians-1697052)
Note that the report is from the AZOV battalion/regiment. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on April 12, 2022, 09:48:52 AM
and now there are reports of Russian soldiers raping old Ukrainian women?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 12, 2022, 10:42:27 AM
Quote from: acctingman on April 12, 2022, 09:48:52 AM
and now there are reports of Russian soldiers raping old Ukrainian women?

Russia's Interfax news agency :

Russia's Vladimir Putin hailed his "brave" and "effective" troops in Ukraine today.

The Russian leader vowed that his "noble" war against Ukraine would be successful and defiantly said his country could not be isolated from the rest of the world.

"There is no doubt that the goals and tasks of the operation in Ukraine will be fulfilled," he said, claiming "confrontation with the growing anti-Russian forces in Ukraine was inevitable" and only "a question of time."

"The Russian Armed Forces have acted bravely, efficiently, and effectively in the course of the special military operation in Ukraine, using the most contemporary kinds of weapons," he said.

"What we are doing is helping people, saving people, on the one hand, and on the other hand—we are simply taking measures to ensure the security of Russia itself. It's evident that we had no other choice, this is the right decision,"



Meanwhile, evidence of possible Russian war crimes in the country has continued to grow, as Ukraine's human-rights ombudswoman told The New York Times and the BBC that Russian troops held more than two dozen women captive in a basement in Bucha while they occupied the devastated town.

Nine of the women in that group—which included girls as young as 14—are now pregnant, according to the ombudswoman, Lyudmila Denisova.

"Russian soldiers told them they would rape them to the point where they wouldn't want sexual contact with any man, to prevent them from having Ukrainian children," Denisova told the BBC.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61071243


In one of the most heinous allegations against Russian troops so far, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday confirmed reports that a Russian soldier sent around video of himself sexually assaulting a baby.

According to Russian media reports, the soldier in question, Aleksei Bychkov, was arrested on Russian territory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on April 12, 2022, 10:47:32 AM
I hope and pray that every one of those motherfuckers gets anally raped by a RPG
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 12, 2022, 10:48:20 AM
Continuing the great tradition of top notch OPSEC that the Russian military has established in this war, Kadyrov on his daily Telegram video shows operational maps he says he has just received from his commanders  :2funny:.


https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1513423794773413891?cxt=HHwWhsC-oYi74YAqAAAA
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 10:50:45 AM
Quote from: acctingman on April 12, 2022, 09:48:52 AM
and now there are reports of Russian soldiers raping old Ukrainian women?

Reports of massive numbers of rapes go back at least a few weeks. But these news reports were overshadowed by mass killings.

These reports began to emerge as the Russians retreated in the north.

For example, this April 4th article.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/all-wars-are-like-this-used-as-a-weapon-of-war-in-ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/all-wars-are-like-this-used-as-a-weapon-of-war-in-ukraine)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2022, 11:14:44 AM
before this shitshow kicked off I was reading a book about the fall of Berlin and the operations that led up to it.
rape and murder are the way of the russian military and Im really at the point where I just want NATO to get into the fight and finish these fucking
filthy shitbags once and for all.
nukes be damned.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 12, 2022, 11:54:47 AM
Jesus Christ.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 12:51:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2022, 11:14:44 AM
before this shitshow kicked off I was reading a book about the fall of Berlin and the operations that led up to it.
rape and murder are the way of the russian military and Im really at the point where I just want NATO to get into the fight and finish these fucking
filthy shitbags once and for all.
nukes be damned.

Maybe the book you are referring to, but there are some gut-wrenching tales of Soviet soldiers raping civilians in Cornelius Ryan's "The Last Battle" about the final days of the Berlin campaign. According to that book, the Russians were ordered to commit rapes in Germany.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00362XL3W/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i2 (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00362XL3W/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i2)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 12, 2022, 01:02:22 PM
I really really think Putin is going to regret pissing off the Ukraine people and pushing them to "obsessive, undying levels of hatred" towards Russia and their war-crime actions.

To hell with religious terrorists getting and using a suitcase bomb, I think now the most likely scenario for this will be a Ukrainian lighting up the Kremlin with one.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 04:33:26 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2022, 01:02:22 PM
I really really think Putin is going to regret pissing off the Ukraine people and pushing them to "obsessive, undying levels of hatred" towards Russia and their war-crime actions.

To hell with religious terrorists getting and using a suitcase bomb, I think now the most likely scenario for this will be a Ukrainian lighting up the Kremlin with one.

Your point reminds me of the retired Russian general who published an impassioned plea on Feb 11th, to not go to war and for Putin to resign.

General Ivashov said:  Launching an attack on Ukraine "will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state" and will make "Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies".

Ivashov also predicted that NATO would directly intervene. Given the level of frustration with Putin, I am thinking NATO intervention may still come to pass.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 12, 2022, 04:47:09 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2022, 01:02:22 PM
I really really think Putin is going to regret pissing off the Ukraine people and pushing them to "obsessive, undying levels of hatred" towards Russia and their war-crime actions.

To hell with religious terrorists getting and using a suitcase bomb, I think now the most likely scenario for this will be a Ukrainian lighting up the Kremlin with one.

   The weirdness is ever-growing.  I'm not very sure what things like this news article mean:


   Putin ally Viktor Medvedchuk detained in "special operation," Zelensky says
From CNN's Nathan Hodge, Olga Voitovych and Kostan Nechyporenko

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Tuesday on Telegram that Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Russian Ukrainian politician and oligarch, had been detained in a "special operation."

Zelensky posted a photo of a handcuffed and disheveled-looking Medvedchuk wearing fatigues, with the caption, "A special operation was carried out thanks to the SBU [the Security Service of Ukraine]. Well done! Details later."
Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Medvedchuk had faced allegations of treason in Ukraine and had been under house arrest. His whereabouts had been unknown in the weeks following the invasion. Some observers speculated that Medvedchuk or one of his allies might be the Kremlin's preference to lead a puppet government in Ukraine if the Feb. 24 invasion succeeded in toppling Zelensky.

Medvedchuk was sanctioned by the US in 2014 "for threatening the peace, security, stability, sovereignty, or territorial integrity of Ukraine, and for undermining Ukraine's democratic institutions and processes."

But the wealthy businessman also served as a go-between for Moscow and Kyiv after the outbreak of the Donbas conflict in 2014 by leveraging his personal ties with Putin. In a 2019 interview with filmmaker Oliver Stone, Putin acknowledged that he was godfather to Medvedchuk's daughter.

"I would not say that we are very close but we know each other well," Putin said. "He was [former Ukrainian] President [Leonid] Kuchma's chief of staff, and it was in this capacity at the time that he asked me to take part in the christening of his daughter. According to Russian Orthodox tradition, you can't refuse such a request."

Medvedchuk also had notoriety in Ukraine for his role as the Soviet state-appointed defense attorney for the Ukrainian dissident poet Vasyl Stus, who died in a Soviet labor camp in 1985.

In a statement, SBU head Ivan Bakanov said, "You may be a pro-Russian politician and work for the aggressor state for years. You may hide from justice lately. You may even wear a Ukrainian military uniform for camouflage... But will it help you to escape punishment? Not at all! Shackles are waiting for you. And for the same traitors of Ukraine as you!"

Bakanov added, "Pro-Russian traitors and agents of the Russian intelligence services, remember — your crimes have no statute of limitations. And there are no hiding places where we wouldn't find you!"

CNN was not immediately able to reach a legal representative for Medvedchuk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 12, 2022, 04:51:00 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 04:33:26 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2022, 01:02:22 PM
I really really think Putin is going to regret pissing off the Ukraine people and pushing them to "obsessive, undying levels of hatred" towards Russia and their war-crime actions.

To hell with religious terrorists getting and using a suitcase bomb, I think now the most likely scenario for this will be a Ukrainian lighting up the Kremlin with one.

Your point reminds me of the retired Russian general who published an impassioned plea on Feb 11th, to not go to war and for Putin to resign.

General Ivashov said:  Launching an attack on Ukraine "will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state" and will make "Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies".

Ivashov also predicted that NATO would directly intervene. Given the level of frustration with Putin, I am thinking NATO intervention may still come to pass.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

  At the rate things are going, NATO won't even have to intervene -- they can just wait for the Russians to attack Finland and supply Finland with arms.  I have to say none of this war has
gone even remotely as I expected and basically "I'm so confused!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on April 12, 2022, 05:18:26 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 04:33:26 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2022, 01:02:22 PM
I really really think Putin is going to regret pissing off the Ukraine people and pushing them to "obsessive, undying levels of hatred" towards Russia and their war-crime actions.

To hell with religious terrorists getting and using a suitcase bomb, I think now the most likely scenario for this will be a Ukrainian lighting up the Kremlin with one.

Your point reminds me of the retired Russian general who published an impassioned plea on Feb 11th, to not go to war and for Putin to resign.

General Ivashov said:  Launching an attack on Ukraine "will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state" and will make "Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies".

Ivashov also predicted that NATO would directly intervene. Given the level of frustration with Putin, I am thinking NATO intervention may still come to pass.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

I do not think there is any way NATO will militarily involve itself unless Russia commits even more egregious barbarous acts or direct attacks on NATO itself. Western populations are too spoiled and coddled to countenance war without far more provocation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 06:45:04 PM
Quote from: solops on April 12, 2022, 05:18:26 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 04:33:26 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2022, 01:02:22 PM
I really really think Putin is going to regret pissing off the Ukraine people and pushing them to "obsessive, undying levels of hatred" towards Russia and their war-crime actions.

To hell with religious terrorists getting and using a suitcase bomb, I think now the most likely scenario for this will be a Ukrainian lighting up the Kremlin with one.

Your point reminds me of the retired Russian general who published an impassioned plea on Feb 11th, to not go to war and for Putin to resign.

General Ivashov said:  Launching an attack on Ukraine "will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state" and will make "Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies".

Ivashov also predicted that NATO would directly intervene. Given the level of frustration with Putin, I am thinking NATO intervention may still come to pass.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons


... unless Russia commits even more egregious barbarous acts ....


That.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 13, 2022, 11:04:10 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 06:45:04 PM
Quote from: solops on April 12, 2022, 05:18:26 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 04:33:26 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2022, 01:02:22 PM
I really really think Putin is going to regret pissing off the Ukraine people and pushing them to "obsessive, undying levels of hatred" towards Russia and their war-crime actions.

To hell with religious terrorists getting and using a suitcase bomb, I think now the most likely scenario for this will be a Ukrainian lighting up the Kremlin with one.

Your point reminds me of the retired Russian general who published an impassioned plea on Feb 11th, to not go to war and for Putin to resign.

General Ivashov said:  Launching an attack on Ukraine "will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state" and will make "Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies".

Ivashov also predicted that NATO would directly intervene. Given the level of frustration with Putin, I am thinking NATO intervention may still come to pass.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons


... unless Russia commits even more egregious barbarous acts ....


That.

But with a high probability that Finland and Sweden will join NATO soon, maybe NATO can just wait for the Russians to attack Finland, Norway and Sweden and take some pressure off of whoever
the Russians might be interested in attacking.


Finnish government publishes security report with assessment of possible NATO membership amid Ukraine invasion
From CNN's James Frater in Brussels

The Finnish government presented a report Wednesday to the country's parliament on the fundamental security changes that have occurred following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The wide-ranging report included an assessment on whether Finland should purse closer cooperation with NATO and considered the effects of a possible NATO membership.

If Finland and Sweden become full NATO members, the report said "the threshold for using military force in the Baltic Sea region would rise," enhancing "the stability of the region in the long term."

Membership would include signing up to NATO's founding principle of collective defense — commonly referred to as Article 5 — which means that an attack against one NATO ally is considered as an attack against all allies.

For Finland, the report outlined that "the most significant effect of its possible NATO membership would be that Finland would be part of NATO's collective defence, and be covered by the security guarantees enshrined in Article 5."

The deterrent effect of being a NATO member would be "considerably stronger than it is at present, as it would be based on the capabilities of the entire Alliance," the report said, and "Finland would be prepared to support other NATO member countries in a possible Article 5 situation."

The report outlined that possible membership in NATO "would significantly expand the area of the Alliance, double its land border with Russia, and move the Alliance closer to strategically important areas in Russia," such as the Kola Peninsula and St. Petersburg.

Finland "would aim to continue to maintain functioning relations with Russia in the event it becomes a NATO member," it added.

The report cautioned that given Russia's "negative view towards NATO enlargement," if Finland applied for NATO membership, it should be prepared for "risks that are difficult to anticipate, such as increasing tensions on the border between Finland and Russia."
And the country would have to "strengthen its preparedness for becoming a target of wide-ranging hybrid influence activities," it said.

The report added that "close cooperation between Finland and Sweden during possible accession processes would be important," saying that a "simultaneous accession processes" from the two countries could also "facilitate preparation for and response to Russia's possible reaction."

As part of accession talks to the alliance, the Finnish government said it would raise NATO's military presence in the country, saying that "membership would not oblige Finland to accept nuclear weapons, permanent bases or troops in its territory."

This, the report said, is similar to the agreement that Norway and Denmark have, which does not permit "permanent troops, bases or nuclear weapons of the Alliance in their territory during peacetime."

Finland's "contribution to the collective defence of the Alliance" would be negotiated during the accession process.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 13, 2022, 11:55:36 AM
Zerohedge is reporting that Sweden has already decided to apply for membership, aiming at making the application in late June.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sweden-apply-nato-membership-prime-minister-announces
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 13, 2022, 12:53:27 PM
Quote from: solops on April 12, 2022, 05:18:26 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 04:33:26 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2022, 01:02:22 PM
I really really think Putin is going to regret pissing off the Ukraine people and pushing them to "obsessive, undying levels of hatred" towards Russia and their war-crime actions.

To hell with religious terrorists getting and using a suitcase bomb, I think now the most likely scenario for this will be a Ukrainian lighting up the Kremlin with one.

Your point reminds me of the retired Russian general who published an impassioned plea on Feb 11th, to not go to war and for Putin to resign.

General Ivashov said:  Launching an attack on Ukraine "will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state" and will make "Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies".

Ivashov also predicted that NATO would directly intervene. Given the level of frustration with Putin, I am thinking NATO intervention may still come to pass.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

I do not think there is any way NATO will militarily involve itself unless Russia commits even more egregious barbarous acts or direct attacks on NATO itself. Western populations are too spoiled and coddled to countenance war without far more provocation.

Never underestimate Russia's/Putin's Machiavellian nature. They will push the level too far as Ukraine resistance foils them. Anyone who know Ukrainian people, knows that Putin and his planners made a big oops.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 13, 2022, 03:40:50 PM
"Orcs":  Saw a quote from a Ukrainian sniper referring to Russian troops as "orcs". I saw an earlier video where another Ukrainian soldier called Russian soldiers "orcs". Wonder if it is common.

Here is a quote from "Charcoal" a female Ukrainian sniper who got her fame over the years fighting the pro-Russian militia's in the Donetsk region. She quit the Army but has recently rejoined. She said this about the Russian troops: "These are not people. The Nazis were not as vile as these orcs."

https://nypost.com/2022/04/05/ukrainian-sniper-charcoal-lauded-as-modern-day-lady-death/ (https://nypost.com/2022/04/05/ukrainian-sniper-charcoal-lauded-as-modern-day-lady-death/)

BTW, the article references Lyudmila Pavlichenko, the famed WWII Russian sniper. If you haven't heard of Pavlichenko...let Woody Guthrie introduce her (song was from when the Russians were on our side):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHKjOl9ocR0&list=RDSHKjOl9ocR0&start_radio=1 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHKjOl9ocR0&list=RDSHKjOl9ocR0&start_radio=1)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 13, 2022, 04:02:25 PM
Here's an article from 5 March where the Ukrainians are documented as calling the Russians "orcs."  I seem to recall it started pretty early in the conflict.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582171/Thousands-Ukrainians-streets-protest-Putins-invasion.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 13, 2022, 05:20:59 PM
Is "orc" an obscure slavic slur?  Or is that another case of art-imitates-life-imatates-art?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on April 13, 2022, 06:30:00 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 13, 2022, 05:20:59 PM
Is "orc" an obscure slavic slur?  Or is that another case of art-imitates-life-imatates-art?
You made me look ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orc ).  Tolkien took the name from Beowulf!   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 13, 2022, 07:55:04 PM
'Orc' is new to me here too. It's fitting for many reasons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2022, 08:01:16 PM
scratch one slava class crusier.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 13, 2022, 08:02:02 PM
^Just read that!

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61101906

awesome:

"It has been confirmed that the missile cruiser Moskva today went exactly where it was sent by our border guards on Snake Island!" Odesa regional governor Maksym Marchenko wrote in his Telegram post.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 13, 2022, 09:04:44 PM
Those little Gremlins at wikipedia are quick

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQQuP6KVUAMKlMV.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2022, 09:05:11 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQQ2d4PXEAUP1kD?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2022, 09:23:41 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQPqC5GWUAME8l8?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 13, 2022, 09:29:39 PM
 :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 13, 2022, 09:44:35 PM
I hear in a statement today, the Head of the Brotherhood of Orcs Union asked their names NOT be used in connection with any Russian Military Forces as it's offensive to them. Back to regular programming.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Rekim on April 13, 2022, 11:46:19 PM
While the sinking has yet to be officially confirmed, the Internet isn't waiting. The meme factories are hard at work.

my personal favorite, so far

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQRycPuXsAMIdd9?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2022, 12:15:03 AM
thats gold!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 05:25:55 AM
Quote from: Rekim on April 13, 2022, 11:46:19 PM
While the sinking has yet to be officially confirmed, the Internet isn't waiting. The meme factories are hard at work.

my personal favorite, so far

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQRycPuXsAMIdd9?format=jpg&name=small)

   Beautiful and even the Russian press seems to be confirming that something happened:

Russia's loss of naval flagship is a devastating blow, experts say
From CNN's Brad Lendon

One of the Russian Navy's most important warships is either floating abandoned or at the bottom of the Black Sea, a massive blow to a military struggling against Ukrainian resistance 50 days into Vladimir Putin's invasion of his neighbor.

Russian sailors have evacuated the guided-missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of its Black Sea fleet, after a fire that detonated ammunition aboard, Russian state media reported Wednesday.

State media outlets TASS and RIA, citing the Russian Defense Ministry, said the Moskva had been seriously damaged in the incident and that the cause of the fire was being investigated. The Russian reports gave no information on possible casualties.

But hours earlier, a Ukrainian official claimed the Russian warship had been hit by cruise missiles fired from Ukraine.

Due to large storms over the Black Sea obscuring satellite imagery and sensory satellite data, CNN has not been able to visually confirm the ship has been hit or its current status, but analysts noted that a fire on board such a ship can lead to a catastrophic explosion that could sink it.

Whatever the reason for the fire, the analysts say it strikes hard at the heart of the Russian navy as well as national pride, comparable to the US Navy losing a battleship during World War II or an aircraft carrier today.

"Only the loss of a ballistic missile submarine or the Kutznetsov (Russia's lone aircraft carrier) would inflict a more serious blow to Russian morale and the navy's reputation with the Russian public," said Carl Schuster, a retired US Navy captain and former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center.
"Massive blow": Alessio Patalano, professor of war and strategy at King's College in London, said losing the warship would be a "massive blow" for Russia.

"Ships operate away from public attention and their activities are rarely the subject of news. But they are large floating pieces of national territory, and when you lose one, a flagship no less, the political and symbolic message — in addition to the military loss — stands out precisely because of it," he said.


and:

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/russias-most-powerful-warship-in-the-black-sea-is-operating-in-a-pattern/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 14, 2022, 06:01:44 AM
All of this is going as Putin planned it.  We are just not cunning enough to understand it.  Cruiser Moskva only entered stealth mode.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 07:17:52 AM
Quote from: Rekim on April 13, 2022, 11:46:19 PM
While the sinking has yet to be officially confirmed, the Internet isn't waiting. The meme factories are hard at work.

my personal favorite, so far

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQRycPuXsAMIdd9?format=jpg&name=small)

  "Ironically" (Irony seems to be yet another casualty of the attack on Ukraine), the Neptune missile is a fantastically ordinary, mid-range high subsonic cruise missile without a lot of range
or even a very powerful radar seeker.  Warhead 300 pounds, speed 609 mph.  Known in NATO terms as the Kayak if air-launched and the switchblade (a popular term with missile-builders) if ship
launched and the Bunyadk or something if fired from trucks in groups of 8 (8!).  The Ukrainian version of this KH-35 (Kayak-switchblade-bunyak) might have more range or waypoints or a better seeker but its still a missile so small that the Russians bill it as "the terror of US destroyers" (I guess because "ironically" nobody thought it might just sorta blow up Moskava -- if that's what happened).

   So what could go wrong?  How could a very ordinary missile hit the most heavily defended ship in the Black Sea?  Especially one that would be way back in the target pack?  And how can the Ukrainians be
sure that 2 Neptunes hit?  Also even 4 Neptunes would probably not be enough to sink Moskava  But something definitely triggered a major fire on the ship maybe as part of a response to
a missile attack during stormy weather.  Possibly the Russians' own defensive fire which is why nobody wants to be too specific about what happened. Moskava might have been in the middle of a lot
of defensive fire and chaff and jamming during some bad weather with her own defensive systems flipped on only breifly if at all, but in any case Moskava would at one point have been the biggest
radar reflection in the middle of a lot of things designed to confuse radars and BOOM!  there would have been all kinds of things that might hit the ship (it sounds like high up and aft?  Unless she is
being towed or there is some evidence a tow was attempted and stopped... then low and aft...?)

One Ukrainian source says "we don't know what happened" and the Russians aren't clarifying things much and US satellites can't see through the cloud cover.

  CNN says: Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said "we can't figure out what happened," suggesting confusion over what occurred.

  And:
Damaged Russian warship is afloat, Pentagon says, amid conflicting reports from Ukraine and Russia
From CNN's Jamie Crawford

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told CNN that "there was an explosion" on the Russian cruiser Moskva, but added the United States cannot assess at this point if the ship was hit by a missile.

"We're not quite exactly sure what happened here. We do assess that there was an explosion — at least one explosion on this cruiser — a fairly major one at that, that has caused extensive damage to the ship," Kirby said. 
Russia said its warship "remains afloat" after a fire detonated ammunition on board, while Ukrainian officials said the Moskva was hit by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles and has sunk.

"We assess that the ship is able to make its own way, and it is doing that; it's heading more towards now we think the east. We think it's probably going to be putting in at Sevastopol for repairs, but we don't know what exactly caused that," Kirby added.

Kirby said the ship had been operating with a few other Russian vessels about 60 miles (about 96 kilometers) south of Odesa.

"The explosion was sizable enough that we picked up indications that other naval vessels around her tried to come to her assistance, and so eventually that wasn't apparently needed. So she is making her own way across the Black Sea and we'll continue to try and monitor this as best we can," he added.



 



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 14, 2022, 08:42:32 AM
I'm a retired USNR surface warfare officer, so I have a small degree of experience with shipboard damage control and surface operations.  Here is my best guess, based on existing informattion of what may have happened to the Slava.  First of all, to recap what we know happened:

According to the USNI quoting Russia state media, "Russian Navy's Black Sea flagship has suffered major damage and the crew has abandoned the ship,  following Ukrainian claims of hitting the ship with a missile strike.  This indicates the ship is a total loss.  Even if it is not sunk, the fires are now uncontrolled, and without a crew to fight them, will burn until they can't burn anymore.  Given the ship was launched in the early 1980's, it won't be economical to repair it., assuming it can be towed to a port. (note: The Russians are claiming it will be towed back. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/) https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russian-navy-confirms-severe-damage-to-black-sea-cruiser-moskva-crew-abandoned-ship#more-93562

The Russians claim the fire was the result of the "explosion of ammunition" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/.  They also claim fire was contained and that it was still afloat. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61103927.  This is at odds with the claim the ship was abandoned, i.e., "The entire crew have been evacuated" (https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russian-navy-confirms-severe-damage-to-black-sea-cruiser-moskva-crew-abandoned-ship#more-93562 ; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61103927) but possibly there is a translation issue and/or simply a civilian spokesmen not understanding the difference between evacuating wounded and abandoning ship.

IMHO, this sounds like the ship is a total loss.  It was launched in 1983, and the fact that it is, at best, being towed back indicates the fire was extensive, as ammunition spaces are generally far from engineering spaces on a ship.  As such, it is unlikely that it will be economically efficient to repair the ship.

So what can be deduced from the reports thus far?  If the damage was caused by only by an accidental an explosion of ammunition (as the Russians are trying to indicate) the fire apparently spread far, and for some time. Occam's Razor says the better hypothesis is that the Moskva was  hit by Ukrainian missiles.  One missile may have hit at or near some engineering spaces and either the hit or the progressive damage took out power.   A second hit may have started some type of ammunition fire.  The Neptune missiles the Ukrainians are alleged to have used are subsonic, so the shock damage shouldn't have been so great to have dropped the engineering plant off line. (Assuming a properly designed and maintained engineering plant and associated electrical system).  So my guess is that there was one hit in, or very near the main engineering spaces and progressive damage took out any back up systems.  The alleged  ammunition fire may have been started by a second hit (as ammunition storage spaces should be relatively far from the engineering spaces.)  Apparently, any sprinkler/fire suppressant systems were either destroyed by the hit, or were not properly maintained so they didn't work.  Alternatively, the systems and the crew's damage control training, were not adequate to the task at hand. 

Another interesting issue is that the Moskva was hit at all.  If the Ukrainians fired only two subsonic missiles, then the Moskva's defenses should have been able to handle the threat.  Of course it is possible that more missiles were fired, but I am guessing that it would have taken a salvo of at least 6 such missiles to achieve 2 hits against a Slava.  More missiles would have been required if the Moskva was properly escorted.  However, poor training and equipment failure due to poor maintence and parts shortages could account for the effectiveness of the missile strike.  Another intersesting issue is how the Ukrainians managed to target the Slava in the first place.  Because I don't know what the geometry of the engagement was, I can't comment, other than to say that the sea is a big place.  Finding a target on the open water is a challenge.  Based on the size of the missile salvo, it is a reasonable assumption that the Ukrainians did not simply get a lucky hit.  Rather, they were confident they were aiming at the Moskva (or some other HVU).  So how did they know what they were shooting at?  Possibly the Moskva was using some emitter that was distinctive to it.  If so, it may  indicate poor EMCON discipline on the part of the Russian navy.  Alternatively, the Moskva was hit while it was within visual range of land.  If so, it should have been at GQ, and its defense been more effective against the missiles.  Alternatively, it was spotted by Ukrainian LBA, in which case it shows the Russians are providing insufficient CAP for their surface units.  Finally, it is possible the Ukrainians used drones to locate and target the Moskva, in which case it illustrates the dangers of brown water operations.  Hopefully, the USN is taking note.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 14, 2022, 08:58:46 AM
I've suspected for some time that U.S. and other Western Intelligence services are feeding intel to the Ukrainians more then we know or they'll admit. This could account for some of their biggest successes. Maybe this one too. Somebody's got some, 'splaining' to do to Vlad.  #:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 14, 2022, 09:10:57 AM
The Revell model meme wins the internet for a month!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 14, 2022, 09:15:13 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 14, 2022, 08:58:46 AM
I've suspected for some time that U.S. and other Western Intelligence services are feeding intel to the Ukrainians more then we know or they'll admit. This could account for some of their biggest successes. Maybe this one too. Somebody's got some, 'splaining' to do to Vlad.  #:-)

It is possible that the Ukrainians were given access to western targeting.  However, maritime targeting data is extremely perishable.  If they targeted the Moskva using NATO data, then it would be effectively "real time" data, ie, basically a call from the detecting NATO unit to the Ukrainian firing unit (I am simplifying this somewhat, but it would be very rapid comms).  I don't know if we have that type of relationship with the Ukrainians.  However, we might.  I've wondered about the sheer number of Russian generals the Ukrainians have managed to kill, and whether they could get that kind of rapid targeting data without some NATO assistance).

One additional note to this: Because most merchant traffic has left the Black Sea (or is docked in port awaiting the war to end) the targeting problem is somewhat simplified, as  there isn't nearly as many merchant contacts you have to deconflict.  Therefore, the targeting data on the Moskva is not quite as perishable as it would be in, for instance, the Straits of Sicily.  With that said, it still requires fairly recent data to get a good targeting solution on a warship.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 14, 2022, 10:22:43 AM
(https://i.redd.it/65ed1o5g5et81.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 14, 2022, 10:40:01 AM
 ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 10:49:02 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 14, 2022, 09:10:57 AM
The Revell model meme wins the internet for a month!

Let's see...still battling fire...other ships have moved south...sounds like something coming out of Ukraine did something.  Maybe a Sea Venom (a small Anglo-French antiship missile called
"Sea Venom" in the UK world because they like that already-used name for some reason) from a drone?
But you might say...why claim it was the Neptune?  Well, maybe the Sea Venom-drone combo is much stealthier can find search for targets then go infrared with human guidance and why give it away?  You could fire some Neptunes to cover your drone-sea venom combo and the Russians would have no clue to use flares rather than chaff etc.:



US assesses Russian warship still battling fire, but cannot confirm cause, defense official says
From CNN's Michael Conte

The United States assesses that the Russian cruiser Moskva is still battling a fire onboard but still cannot confirm what caused the damage, according to a senior US defense official.

The official also said that the ship is moving east, and the US assumes it will be heading to the port of Sevastopol for repairs.

The US has seen that other Russian ships in the northern Black Sea near the Moskva have all subsequently moved further south, according to the official.

Ukraine claimed to have hit Moskva with a missile, while Russia said the cause of the fire is still "being established" and that there is no "open fire" on the ship.

"We cannot confirm what caused the damage to the cruiser Moskva. We do believe that she has experienced significant damage. Our assessment is that she still appears to be battling a fire onboard. But we do not know the extent of the damage. We don't know anything about casualties to her crew. And we cannot definitely say at this point what caused that damage," the US official said.
"We hold the ship moving to the east. Our assumption is that she'll be heading to Sevastopol for repairs. But that's really all we can say. The only other maritime activity worth noting is that we did note that other Black Sea ships that were operating in the vicinity of her or in the northern Black Sea have all moved further south, in the wake of the damage that the Moskva experienced. So they've all, all of the northern Black Sea ships have now moved out, away from the northern areas where they were operating in," the official added.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby echoed similar comments in an interview with CNN earlier Thursday, saying that "there was an explosion" on the Russian cruiser, but that the United States cannot assess at this point if the ship was hit by a missile.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 14, 2022, 10:57:01 AM
Ukrainians are reaching Indiana Jones or Red Dawn levels of creativity here  :cowboy:

From CNN:

'Bridge destroyed as Russians crossed: A Ukraine special-operations unit destroyed a bridge as a Russian convoy crossed it while it headed toward Izium in southeastern Kharkiv region, the Command of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed in a statement Thursday. They said the Ukrainian unit destroyed the bridge with an explosive charge as a convoy of a Tiger armored vehicle and several trucks crossed it.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 14, 2022, 11:28:32 AM
Quote from: solops on April 12, 2022, 05:18:26 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 12, 2022, 04:33:26 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2022, 01:02:22 PM
I really really think Putin is going to regret pissing off the Ukraine people and pushing them to "obsessive, undying levels of hatred" towards Russia and their war-crime actions.

To hell with religious terrorists getting and using a suitcase bomb, I think now the most likely scenario for this will be a Ukrainian lighting up the Kremlin with one.

Your point reminds me of the retired Russian general who published an impassioned plea on Feb 11th, to not go to war and for Putin to resign.

General Ivashov said:  Launching an attack on Ukraine "will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state" and will make "Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies".

Ivashov also predicted that NATO would directly intervene. Given the level of frustration with Putin, I am thinking NATO intervention may still come to pass.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

I do not think there is any way NATO will militarily involve itself unless Russia commits even more egregious barbarous acts or direct attacks on NATO itself. Western populations are too spoiled and coddled to countenance war without far more provocation.

I do wonder whether there might not be a tit-for-tat retaliatory military cycle available to the Allies there, should they choose to pursue it (e.g., a one-time retaliatory cruise missile strike on a location cited as "the base of chemical weapons usage for a separatist faction in the Donbask region").  There are a number of options available short of all-out military conflict with boots and tanks on the ground shooting at the Russians at close quarters.

In terms of coddling, I agree.  The curious thing is, even as the two sides work to kill and beat each other into submission (the West is only doing so via Ukrainian proxies), the West continues to buy billions of $$ of Russian energy exports and Russia refuses to cut off the flows of coal, oil, or natural gas.  A full-scale shutdown of Russian energy exports to Western Europe would likely trigger a major recession (I heard one policy wonk on the radio throw out the forecast of an 8% one-time hit to German GDP if they went cold turkey on Russian energy in the next week).

It's unclear if the folks in the West are frantically scrambling to secure alternate energy sources, or if they're just nibbling at the margins of the problem and hoping things get back to normal sooner rather than later.  Getting coal and oil from alternate commercial sources isn't especially hard or expensive, but getting new LNG infrastructure (primarily pipelines) built takes A LOT more time and money.  Despite their aggressive growth of renewables, Germany is the one who is the most dependent on Russia for energy right now (LNG in particular), and the Germans have always had a hard time voting against their own pocketbooks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 14, 2022, 12:01:41 PM
So with the ship abandoned, the fires are being fought and it's limping eastward... I am forced to assume that Russian ghosts have arisen to save the Glory!  :))

My favorite semi-serious theory is that this is the largest fragging incident in history: the other ships around it decided to hit the Moskva and blame operator error during a heavy storm free-fire defense.  :arr:

On a more serious theory in connection with Western SIGINT help -- I wonder how many NATO/US subs are currently trolling around quietly in the Black Sea. Even if they don't fire, they could be passing along targeting information using periscope (or floatation) signal bursts.

But then again, do the Uks have a small sub active after all...?  :coolsmiley:

At the end of the day, I'm sure whatever kicked it off, Tripoli's assessment will prove accurate (and embarrassing for the Russian navy, thus to be hidden if possible.)


Quote from: Rekim on April 13, 2022, 11:46:19 PM
While the sinking has yet to be officially confirmed, the Internet isn't waiting. The meme factories are hard at work.

my personal favorite, so far

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQRycPuXsAMIdd9?format=jpg&name=small)

Finally! -- a model I have some hope of building successfully! This will be the new entry-level model.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 12:29:03 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 14, 2022, 12:01:41 PM


But then again, do the Uks have a small sub active after all...?  :coolsmiley:



   I think the only operational NATO submarines in the Black Sea are Turkish.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 14, 2022, 12:51:30 PM
^Interesting questions...does Ukraine operate any subs at all?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 01:07:30 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 14, 2022, 12:51:30 PM
^Interesting questions...does Ukraine operate any subs at all?

  I think Russia took their only subs in 2014 when they took Sevastapol.  On the other hand, the Ukrainians did build Moskava so maybe they
knew some sneaky way to use the Force (Luke) and drop a small bomb down a womprat hole somewhere on the ship.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 14, 2022, 01:12:21 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2022, 08:01:16 PM
scratch one slava class crusier.  <:-)

<:-) <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 14, 2022, 01:36:30 PM
Of course, some subs might have sneaked out on an emergency escape surge if they happened to have crews ready to go (assuming none were deployed already for whatever reasons)...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 14, 2022, 02:07:18 PM
The mind reels at the possibilities, womp rats and all hahaha
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 14, 2022, 02:26:14 PM
It looks these days it is not that hard to locate and target ships like the Moskva.


This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows cruiser Moskva in port Sevastopol in Crimea on April 7, 2022.

(https://img.republicworld.com/republic-prod/stories/promolarge/xhdpi/enq7vsjfmkutgqeu_1649929418.jpeg)


A satellite image shows guided missile cruiser Moskva at Black Sea, northwest of Sevastopol, Crimea, April 10, 2022. Picture taken by Maxar Technologies.

(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/denvergazette.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/f9/2f9c7e76-9144-5beb-84c6-63fd080f80d8/6257a041be900.image.jpg?resize=800%2C534)


Is stealth worthless when satellites with such resolution exist ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 14, 2022, 02:34:46 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 14, 2022, 02:26:14 PM
It looks these days it is not that hard to locate and target ships like the Moskva.


This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows cruiser Moskva in port Sevastopol in Crimea on April 7, 2022.

(https://img.republicworld.com/republic-prod/stories/promolarge/xhdpi/enq7vsjfmkutgqeu_1649929418.jpeg)


A satellite image shows guided missile cruiser Moskva at Black Sea, northwest of Sevastopol, Crimea, April 10, 2022. Picture taken by Maxar Technologies.

(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/denvergazette.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/f9/2f9c7e76-9144-5beb-84c6-63fd080f80d8/6257a041be900.image.jpg?resize=800%2C534)


Is stealth worthless when satellites with such resolution exist ?

Those are good, but for targeting they aren't very useful.  At economical transit, the Mosvka moves 22 km/hr.  With only a delay of one hour, the seeker head of the missile would likely never see it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 14, 2022, 02:39:37 PM
Wouldn't that depend on (a) how close the missile was launched (the Moskva was in 'brown water' ops, relatively close to shore); and (b) whether the missile was programmed to lead the target and look where the target was projected to be by arrival?

Edited to add: for comparison, sub launched anti-ship missiles, or ASROC torps, can pretty easily drop onto expected target areas for reasonable search and hit probabilities, even when the ships are moving, and even if the ships are actually 'undersea boats'! (I assume most of us have had that experience playing modern sub sims e.g. Red Storm Rising or Cold Waters.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on April 14, 2022, 02:50:21 PM
I think the ranges are much more extreme.

I also imagine the target acquisition type plays into things.

I wish we knew the overall distances between the firing site and the ship but I'm willing to bet there were stealth drone assets in the area possibly even lazing the target.

Just a hunch, I could be completely wrong.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 14, 2022, 03:00:04 PM
Is there any confirmation yet that the ship was hit by a missle(s)?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2022, 03:03:03 PM
1.  NATO has had AWACS, JSTARS, EC-135 and Global Hawks all over the entire border area.  the Global Hawk Forte flights specifically have been covering the Black Sea daily.  so knowing where the russian ships are at any given time isnt the problem.
2.  the initial story had a Ukrainian drone messing with the ship off its starboard side while the missiles came in from the port.
not a bad bait and switch if true.
3.  the missiles used are fired from an 8 cell launcher that looks like its based on the S-300/400 chassis.  to me this would indicate that more missiles were fired and only 2 hit.
4. while I enjoyed reading Tripoli's posts Ill point out that this pos ship was a slava class crusier and that it has 8 giant missile tubes on each side of the superstructure.  each of which houses an 11000 pound object full of things that go BOOM.
a solid hit on one could easily cause sympathetic detonations of the rest and I hope thats exactly what happend.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2022, 03:13:47 PM
TASS just reported the moskva sank while be towed back to port.

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/14383383?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=t.co&utm_referrer=t.co

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQVJeyjXoAIQBzx?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 14, 2022, 04:12:36 PM
'sympathetic detonations'  :smitten:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 04:18:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2022, 03:13:47 PM
TASS just reported the moskva sank while be towed back to port.

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/14383383?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=t.co&utm_referrer=t.co


  Wow.  I guess that says it all.  I guess antiship missiles are pretty lethal.  The exocet  (in the same warhead range as the Neptune) that hit Sheiffield didn't even explode -- the burning fuel was
enough to cause the ship to burn and sink.  Still it is surprising that two relatively small, and subsonic (harpoon-like in fact) missiles were enought to cause Moskava to burn and sink.

  The Neptune/KH-35 missiles were supposed to be cheaper missiles to be used against mid-range targets like destroyers or frigates in the 2000-7000 ton range. Moskava was a lot bigger than that at around 13000 tons. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 14, 2022, 04:24:50 PM
Like Star I also like the 'look at the birdie' trick with the drone on one side, and then smacking the opposite side of the ship with missiles. I really hope that is what happened.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2022, 05:03:47 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 04:18:34 PM
  The Neptune/KH-35 missiles were supposed to be cheaper missiles to be used against mid-range targets like destroyers or frigates in the 2000-7000 ton range. Moskava was a lot bigger than that at around 13000 tons.

this is what happens when you keep your main anti-ship missiles on the outside of the hull.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 06:48:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2022, 05:03:47 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 04:18:34 PM
  The Neptune/KH-35 missiles were supposed to be cheaper missiles to be used against mid-range targets like destroyers or frigates in the 2000-7000 ton range. Moskava was a lot bigger than that at around 13000 tons.

this is what happens when you keep your main anti-ship missiles on the outside of the hull.

  Those were noted as being intact -- the big missile cannisters.  Indeed, it would have been wise not to have those 16 one-ton warheaded mach 3+ monsters on the ship at all.  What were they ever going to shoot those at?
They'd have to go out in the Med and hope a US carrier wandered into range pretty quick.  The 64 grumble SAMs packed in a small verticle launch thing well aft seems like a more likely site for a  big
ammo fire that would have eaten into the interior of the ship pretty fast.  I still think the Neptunes might be coverage for popping a little infrared -guided Sea Venom off the drone and right down the
packed vertical launch thing.  Who needs hypersonic multiton missiles when a little drone or a few cheap subsonic missiles will finish off your biggest, most heavily defended ship?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 14, 2022, 07:04:02 PM
Not a ship guy, but owing to the general scuttlebutt regarding how little the Army paid attention to equipment upkeep, could it be safe to hazard a guess that the Navy folk were just as bad and the sinking could be boiled down to such things?**

-you know some poor lower enlisted dude is going to be the blame for this

**-is the Russian Navy conscripted as well or on a more "professional, contract," level of manning?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 14, 2022, 10:04:18 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 14, 2022, 02:39:37 PM
Wouldn't that depend on (a) how close the missile was launched (the Moskva was in 'brown water' ops, relatively close to shore); and (b) whether the missile was programmed to lead the target and look where the target was projected to be by arrival?

Edited to add: for comparison, sub launched anti-ship missiles, or ASROC torps, can pretty easily drop onto expected target areas for reasonable search and hit probabilities, even when the ships are moving, and even if the ships are actually 'undersea boats'! (I assume most of us have had that experience playing modern sub sims e.g. Red Storm Rising or Cold Waters.)

The issue in the targeting solution isn't the time the missile has to travel.  That would in most cases only be 10-15 minutes or so for a missile like the Neptune.  Rather, the issue is the amount of time it takes for the satellite to 1) download the image with the ship on it and process it; 2) have the ship identified in the photo and its location determined; 3) make the decision made to attack the target and 4) have that information transmitted to the missile site and programed into the missile.  Steps 2-4 can take hours or even days, depending on whether you have AI doing the image search for you.  As a general rule, using imaging derived from orbital platforms for targeting mobile platforms doesn't work, although I'm sure the technology has improved a lot since I was on active duty.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: markh on April 14, 2022, 10:05:08 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 06:48:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2022, 05:03:47 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 04:18:34 PM
  The Neptune/KH-35 missiles were supposed to be cheaper missiles to be used against mid-range targets like destroyers or frigates in the 2000-7000 ton range. Moskava was a lot bigger than that at around 13000 tons.

this is what happens when you keep your main anti-ship missiles on the outside of the hull.

  Those were noted as being intact -- the big missile cannisters.  Indeed, it would have been wise not to have those 16 one-ton warheaded mach 3+ monsters on the ship at all.  What were they ever going to shoot those at?
They'd have to go out in the Med and hope a US carrier wandered into range pretty quick.  The 64 grumble SAMs packed in a small verticle launch thing well aft seems like a more likely site for a  big
ammo fire that would have eaten into the interior of the ship pretty fast.  I still think the Neptunes might be coverage for popping a little infrared -guided Sea Venom off the drone and right down the
packed vertical launch thing.  Who needs hypersonic multiton missiles when a little drone or a few cheap subsonic missiles will finish off your biggest, most heavily defended ship?

Trying to understand what happened here.  The Moskva is a Slava class cruiser.  Accordingly, it is meant to have an advance suite of EW infrastructure and decoys; 8 x 8 Grumble SA-N-6 long range SAMs; 2 x 20 Gecko short range SAMs; 6 AK 630 close in weapons for point defence.  It gets killed by a Neptune subsonic cruise missile.  On paper, and based on the publicly published data surely the odds of this outcome would have to have been very low.    This has to point to a massive equipment/naval personnel failure or am I missing something.  Naval veterans, I am keen for your take on this issue.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 14, 2022, 10:44:41 PM
If the outer missiles were hit (assuming still loaded) that might explain a lot, but as noted there's a report that they were fine. So now we're talking about a relatively close-range drone sniper shot into a sensitive area (like the SAM launcher, ironically); or a couple of waterline hits that spiraled into catastrophe due to previously existing internal problems (as per Tripoli's theory).

A missile-launcher detonation would seem to be the simplest solution -- and I like the hubristic outcome! -- but does it fit the data? Unclear.

This reminds me that Cold Water videos have started popping up today already, featuring sub strikes on the Moskva. Go 80s!  :clap:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 14, 2022, 10:59:15 PM
Meanwhile (not sure if this was linked earlier, don't recall seeing it...?), I ran across a Jordan Harbinger show today, from a week ago (not too out of date already ;) ), interviewing Peter Zeihan (geopolitical strategist author) for an armchair analysis. I thought he made some interesting points, although I'm a little fuzzy on his reasoning about why Russia is still going to beat Ukraine -- roughly speaking, the Russians can afford to keep throwing bodies (and anti-civilian ammo) until they solve the problem by sheerly reducing Ukrainian organized resistance to nothing (manpower vs manpower; casualty levels for the time frame are off the charts, beating even WW2 East Front casualty rates from any timeframe of that war). But then he also says other things which suggest Russia won't be able to sustain that rate of casualty infliction, so... wouldn't that mean the Uks can pull out a win?

Either way, his argument is that even if Russia wants to plug invasion holes, and even if they want to go after NATO allies to solve that (perceived) problem (on which the "existential crisis" rhetoric is at least partly based, but which he thinks they'd at least want to try, probably next year), and even if NATO wanted to wimp out and let them take those regions, too, rather than risk nuclear escalation -- it wouldn't matter because keeping Ukraine from rising again will take so much Russian military power that they're permanently screwed and have no chance of doing anything else (like invading NATO allies) within the foreseeable lifetime of Russia as an organized nation. Which under their current circumstances is roughly measured in Putin's lifetime, whatever that remains.



I'm about 52 minutes through it already (on 2x speed as usual ;) ), of an hour 13 minute show. So far I don't recall any problematic political content (or any current political content at all), so should be non-contentious from that angle. (At least up to the 52 minute mark.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 14, 2022, 11:17:12 PM
Quote from: markh on April 14, 2022, 10:05:08 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 06:48:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2022, 05:03:47 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 04:18:34 PM
  The Neptune/KH-35 missiles were supposed to be cheaper missiles to be used against mid-range targets like destroyers or frigates in the 2000-7000 ton range. Moskava was a lot bigger than that at around 13000 tons.

this is what happens when you keep your main anti-ship missiles on the outside of the hull.

  Those were noted as being intact -- the big missile cannisters.  Indeed, it would have been wise not to have those 16 one-ton warheaded mach 3+ monsters on the ship at all.  What were they ever going to shoot those at?
They'd have to go out in the Med and hope a US carrier wandered into range pretty quick.  The 64 grumble SAMs packed in a small verticle launch thing well aft seems like a more likely site for a  big
ammo fire that would have eaten into the interior of the ship pretty fast.  I still think the Neptunes might be coverage for popping a little infrared -guided Sea Venom off the drone and right down the
packed vertical launch thing.  Who needs hypersonic multiton missiles when a little drone or a few cheap subsonic missiles will finish off your biggest, most heavily defended ship?

Trying to understand what happened here.  The Moskva is a Slava class cruiser.  Accordingly, it is meant to have an advance suite of EW infrastructure and decoys; 8 x 8 Grumble SA-N-6 long range SAMs; 2 x 20 Gecko short range SAMs; 6 AK 630 close in weapons for point defence.  It gets killed by a Neptune subsonic cruise missile.  On paper, and based on the publicly published data surely the odds of this outcome would have to have been very low.    This has to point to a massive equipment/naval personnel failure or am I missing something.  Naval veterans, I am keen for your take on this issue.

I am a veteran of the US Navy, and I am a qualified surface warfare officer, with significant operational experience, although none after 2002.  I'm also a Naval War College graduate, and have experience on the staff of 7th Fleet.  With that said, I could be wrong on what I am about to say, as 1) my experience is dated; 2) we are missing a lot of information, and some of the information we have could be simply wrong and 3) naval warfare is complex, so I may very well be missing something.  As I posted earlier, I estimate that if the Ukrainians achieved 2 hits with Neptune missiles, under the best of circumstances they would have needed to fire at least 6 (and possibly more) such missiles to have gotten those two hits.  However, that is assuming 1) a competent Russian crew who 2) was not effectively caught napping in a combat zone and 3) had at  their primary defensive systems operational, especially the SA-N-4, Jamming gear and the AK-630 gatling guns.  I honestly don't know if the SA-N-6 would have been useful against the Neptune, as it might not be able to engage targets as low as the Neptune can fly (open source claims a minimum engagement altitude of 25 m for the SA-N-6, while the Neptune is reported to cruise at 15 meters, and do its attack run at 3-10 meters altitude.)   https://theancestory.com/cruiser-missile-that-damaged-russian-warship/  Then there is the question of escorts.  Presumably, the Black Sea flagship would be well escorted in a war zone.  The escorts should have been able to both provide early warning  as well as provide some defensive jamming and firepower to engage the Neptune missiles.  There is no indication from the news yet released that the escorts were effective. (However, we are undoubtedly not getting all the information at this point.  Essentially, I am reading "between the lines" in the news reports, and so could very well be wrong on these points).  Based on what I've both experienced and read about the Soviet navy, it could very well be a combination of poor crew training, poor maintenance, and the resulting inoperable gear that prevented the Moskva's systems from being employed.  In addition, it could be poor planning that allowed it to go into a combat zone with either an inadequate escort or while in poor material condition.  We really don't know at this point.  However, historically, the Soviet/Russian navy is not known for its high standards of training and maintenance.

Regarding the state of the damage control of the Moskva.  Damage control is a difficult skill to master, and requires significant training and resources.  Since WWII, no one has been better in it than the USN.  I can testify that it takes significant training time and resources to be as good as the USN has historically been at it. (Note, I said "Historically".  There are indications that the USN is losing this competency, but that is another post). The Ukrainians are claiming that 2 missiles hit the Moskva.  That would be a mission kill if it happened to a 10,000 ton USN ship, like a Ticonderoga class CG.  The only issue is whether the ship could be saved.  That is determined largely by 3 factors: Luck in what systems were knocked out by the hit(s); 2) the design characteristics of the ship and 3) the damage control skill of the crew.  Because we don't know where the ship was hit, or even how many hits it suffered, it is difficult to evaluate what happened.  The Russians claim they suffered a weapons detonation.  Assuming this is true, and assuming the weapons detonation was the result of a hit by the Neptune missile, then the most likely candidates would be the SS-N-12 launchers or the SA-N-6 VLS.  Either one could cause a major fire under the right conditions.  The SS-N-12/P-1000 is a liquid fuel missile, so if it gets burning, you will get a good fire.  But, the launchers being outside the hull could actually help minimze the damage, as any explosion would largely vent away from the hull.  But, possibly the liquid fuel could seep into the hull through a breech, and start a fire.  Conversely, an explosion in the VLS could either be better, or not.  Presumably, there are fire extinguishing systems in the VLS.  But those could have been knocked out by the hit.  The SA-N-6 is a solid fuel missile, so it is theoretically safer.  But if the VLS begins burning, it is a fire inside the ship, which can spread via cable runs or simple heat transfer through bulkheads or unsecured hatches.  This is where the material condition of the ship and the training of the crew comes in.  Additionally, there is luck.  If the ship suffered a hit in the engineering spaces that took out power, or multiple salt water loops, the crew may not have the power or water to fight the fire even if they are properly trained.  Because the ship was being towed, we know it lost power, although that could have happened via progressive damage instead of as a direct consequence of the hit(s).  However, given the amount of space an engineering plant takes up in a ship, and given that the Neptune is a sea-skimming missile, the odds are that at least one of the hits negatively impacted the engineering plant.  This could potentially have significant repercussions to any fire fighting effort, as without power, it becomes very difficult (but not impossible, depending on the situation) to fight major fires on a ship.

What conclusions can we draw? We really don't have enough information yet.  Right now, all we can do is draw up a list of hypotheses.  With that said, given the 100+ year history of poor Russian naval training and maintenance, I would guess that those were factors in the loss of the Moskva.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 14, 2022, 11:25:39 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on April 14, 2022, 11:17:12 PM
Very, very good info

Thank you indeed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 14, 2022, 11:28:57 PM
Thanks
This is very useful insight
FYI a bit off topic but my father was a navy vet and an offshore oil driller (he discovered and drilled several deep sea fields) for 35 years - he always thought the oilrigs could teach the navy a thing or two on damage control -  He was part of the crew that did the post mortem on the Piper Alpha disaster in the North Sea since that was one of his rigs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 15, 2022, 12:40:10 AM
excellent post Trip.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on April 15, 2022, 01:59:04 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 15, 2022, 12:40:10 AM
excellent post Trip.

+1


that what i love Grogheads for  :) :hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 15, 2022, 02:05:07 AM
Great stuff, Tripoli!  I love the expertise in this group...

I think all we can safely conclude at this point is:  1) The Ukrainians either had help, they got extremely lucky, or both; and 2) Russian malfeasance almost certainly was a contributing factor.

This seems to be more of a symbolic victory for the Ukrainians than a practical military victory.  While I'm skeptical that a poorly trained and led Russian army will fight better in Eastern Ukraine than they did in Northern Ukraine, I know that the Russians have a few more factors working to their benefit there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 15, 2022, 05:49:58 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 15, 2022, 02:05:07 AM
Great stuff, Tripoli!  I love the expertise in this group...

I think all we can safely conclude at this point is:  1) The Ukrainians either had help, they got extremely lucky, or both; and 2) Russian malfeasance almost certainly was a contributing factor.

This seems to be more of a symbolic victory for the Ukrainians than a practical military victory.  While I'm skeptical that a poorly trained and led Russian army will fight better in Eastern Ukraine than they did in Northern Ukraine, I know that the Russians have a few more factors working to their benefit there.

   I'd rate it as a first-rate military win and give most of the credit to the Ukrainians -- though I base this assessment on some rather speculative suppositions:

1) The Russians were trying something new in their efforts to get control of the coast around Odessa (though by the way, I don't think Moskava had been launching missiles at
anything anywhere in Ukraine ever)
2) the idea would be to get the Ukrainians to use their radars and then plot those or attack them with antiradar missiles
3) this would at least make it look like they could make an amphibious attack there and pull Ukrainian forces off of other fronts
4) two things might have complicated this simple plan: bad weather and the Ukrainian use of drones and infrared targetting...so not much radar use on the Ukrainian side and weather problems
    for the Russians
5) Given that the Russians need to get some points on the board fast -- they tried something unusual and had Moskava  go active as bait and then maybe use a decoy to draw Ukrainian
     radar use to target Moskava
6) of course the real Moskava had to go silent and move out of position (ie no longer in the usual heavily-defended Moskava-spot in the middle of the escorts)
7) so with radars off, Moskava slipped west (not what the Ukrainians would expect after all) while the main force prepared to blast the decieved Ukrainians when they switched on their radars to hit the fake Moskava
8) But the Ukrainians might have seen something like this before and they had drones out and targetted Moskava without switching on any radars and without mistakenly targetting the fake/decoy
Moskava
8.5) without her radars, Moskava has no defenses against missiles
9) BOOM!  no more threats to Odessa and no more Moskava  (the shutting off of the threat to Odessa is the big win)
10) Also nobody's radars saw the hits so nobody was quite sure what happened
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 15, 2022, 06:21:09 AM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10721423/Russian-air-strike-hits-Ukrainian-missile-factory-Kyiv.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-moskva-ukraine-antiship-missiles-b2058712.html

Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement that Russia bombed a factory in Kyiv overnight where Neptune missiles are made in a retaliatory attack.

But not because their ship was hit by those missiles  :hide:.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 15, 2022, 08:29:25 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero link=topic=26039.msg707691b]#msg707691 date=1650021669]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10721423/Russian-air-strike-hits-Ukrainian-missile-factory-Kyiv.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-moskva-ukraine-antiship-missiles-b2058712.html

Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement that Russia bombed a factory in Kyiv overnight where Neptune missiles are made in a retaliatory attack.

But not because their ship was hit by those missiles  :hide:.

Yes, it's pretty confusing to be a Russian pundit these days.  You have to ritually call the Ukrainians a whole list of insulting terms ('freaks' for example...sounds a little recherchee( re·cher·ché ?!)
to me, but hey you'd probably go to prison for 15 years if you mentioned that 'freak' is not all that threatening an insult at least once it's translated into English). 
Plus, well the war that isn't a war, the bombs
you haven't already dropped all over the place and the Navy that had the ship that sink itself rather than be sent to prison for 15 years
for mentioning that the freaks shoot back occasionally, but even
the regime stalwarts can't get it right all the time:

"Even the fact there is an attack against our territory is casus belli, an absolute cause for war," Bortko said. "For real, no fooling around without any—what's it called? What are we waging right now?"

From Newsweek:
  Russian TV pundit has raged against Ukraine and called for the bombing of the capital city of Kyiv following the sinking of the Russian missile cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea.

Vladimir Bortko, a filmmaker and former member of the Russian State Duma, said on state TV on Thursday that the Russian "motherland" had been attacked after Ukraine said it had hit the ship with missiles.

"We should bomb Kyiv," said Bortko at one point in an exchange with the TV host.

Russia, which began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, has not officially said the vessel was attacked but the country's Defense Ministry has confirmed that the Moskva, which had a crew of 510, sank after a fire on the ship was caused by the detonation of ammunition.

Bortko was speaking as part of a panel on Russian state TV and his comments were flagged on Twitter by Julia Davis, columnist for The Daily Beast and a Russian media analyst, who shared a clip of the show with English subtitles.

The TV host noted that they were talking "about the flagship of Russia's Black Sea fleet." Moskva is the Russian word for Moscow, the nation's capital city.

"Even the fact there is an attack against our territory is casus belli, an absolute cause for war," Bortko said. "For real, no fooling around without any—what's it called? What are we waging right now?"

Russia has not described the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as an invasion or a war, referring to it instead as a "special military operation," while the country has introduced a law that bans journalists from describing that operation as a war or invasion with the penalty of up to 15 years in prison.[/b]

PS: it might be a translation problem, but I think a casus belli is not an "absolute' cause of war (ie not a trigger) but a logically valid argument for an actual war, which would be logically lacking in Russian rhetoric these days unless you want to spend 15 years in prison for mentioning such things even if your name is Bortko or something.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casus_belli  Wikipedia is enlightening on this topic and I think Putin is suing them for mentioning some other things about reality.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/04/russia-threatens-wikipedia-with-fines-over-false-information/










Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 15, 2022, 09:03:51 AM
^ I understand the Russian point of view.  It is not fair when the country you invade shoots back.


Try to keep up : the attack is a casus belli but there was no attack, it was just a fire ...


The translation from Bortko I have seen is different but more dangerous because it hints at the use of nuclear weapons : "We should bomb Kyiv! Then they won't come," he said.
"That's what needs to be done. This should never happen, what we are seeing on the screen right now. 'We have one way of responding. Bomb them once and that's it."

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-pundit-rages-warship-sinking-bomb-kyiv-ukraine-moskva-1698207
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 15, 2022, 09:08:06 AM
'Hints at the use of nuclear weapons'  :buck2:

I have given up on trying to understand what the hell the Russians are doing and I think the Russians have too.

And that is one hell of a post up there Tripoli  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 15, 2022, 09:11:54 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 15, 2022, 09:03:51 AM
^ I understand the Russian point of view.  It is not fair when the country you invade shoots back.


Try to keep up : the attack is a casus belli but there was no attack, it was just a fire ...


The translation from Bortko I have seen is different but more dangerous because it hints at the use of nuclear weapons : "We should bomb Kyiv! Then they won't come," he said.
"That's what needs to be done. This should never happen, what we are seeing on the screen right now. 'We have one way of responding. Bomb them once and that's it."

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-pundit-rages-warship-sinking-bomb-kyiv-ukraine-moskva-1698207

  It's always been in the back of everyone's mind that the Russians might be upset enough to go nuclear (at least locally) -- but I wonder if how they keep mentioning it isn't sort of reducing the actual
danger by making them think it through:
1) one little bomb on Kyiv
2) you get kicked out of the UN and the whole world comes after you
3) is it really worth it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 15, 2022, 09:53:19 AM
Nothing has stopped the insanity so far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 15, 2022, 10:32:54 AM
Anybody else find it ironic that a WW II Russian Heavy Cruiser with armor probably would've been a far more effective, and survivable, ship than the Moskva for this kind of inshore work? Or one of their old BB's? Or maybe a monitor, the Russians had some excellent monitors working the Amur River vs Japan in 1945. Just an uneducated thought.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: markh on April 15, 2022, 11:11:01 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on April 14, 2022, 11:17:12 PM
Quote from: markh on April 14, 2022, 10:05:08 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 06:48:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2022, 05:03:47 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 14, 2022, 04:18:34 PM
  The Neptune/KH-35 missiles were supposed to be cheaper missiles to be used against mid-range targets like destroyers or frigates in the 2000-7000 ton range. Moskava was a lot bigger than that at around 13000 tons.

this is what happens when you keep your main anti-ship missiles on the outside of the hull.

  Those were noted as being intact -- the big missile cannisters.  Indeed, it would have been wise not to have those 16 one-ton warheaded mach 3+ monsters on the ship at all.  What were they ever going to shoot those at?
They'd have to go out in the Med and hope a US carrier wandered into range pretty quick.  The 64 grumble SAMs packed in a small verticle launch thing well aft seems like a more likely site for a  big
ammo fire that would have eaten into the interior of the ship pretty fast.  I still think the Neptunes might be coverage for popping a little infrared -guided Sea Venom off the drone and right down the
packed vertical launch thing.  Who needs hypersonic multiton missiles when a little drone or a few cheap subsonic missiles will finish off your biggest, most heavily defended ship?

Trying to understand what happened here.  The Moskva is a Slava class cruiser.  Accordingly, it is meant to have an advance suite of EW infrastructure and decoys; 8 x 8 Grumble SA-N-6 long range SAMs; 2 x 20 Gecko short range SAMs; 6 AK 630 close in weapons for point defence.  It gets killed by a Neptune subsonic cruise missile.  On paper, and based on the publicly published data surely the odds of this outcome would have to have been very low.    This has to point to a massive equipment/naval personnel failure or am I missing something.  Naval veterans, I am keen for your take on this issue.

I am a veteran of the US Navy, and I am a qualified surface warfare officer, with significant operational experience, although none after 2002.  I'm also a Naval War College graduate, and have experience on the staff of 7th Fleet.  With that said, I could be wrong on what I am about to say, as 1) my experience is dated; 2) we are missing a lot of information, and some of the information we have could be simply wrong and 3) naval warfare is complex, so I may very well be missing something.  As I posted earlier, I estimate that if the Ukrainians achieved 2 hits with Neptune missiles, under the best of circumstances they would have needed to fire at least 6 (and possibly more) such missiles to have gotten those two hits.  However, that is assuming 1) a competent Russian crew who 2) was not effectively caught napping in a combat zone and 3) had at  their primary defensive systems operational, especially the SA-N-4, Jamming gear and the AK-630 gatling guns.  I honestly don't know if the SA-N-6 would have been useful against the Neptune, as it might not be able to engage targets as low as the Neptune can fly (open source claims a minimum engagement altitude of 25 m for the SA-N-6, while the Neptune is reported to cruise at 15 meters, and do its attack run at 3-10 meters altitude.)   https://theancestory.com/cruiser-missile-that-damaged-russian-warship/  Then there is the question of escorts.  Presumably, the Black Sea flagship would be well escorted in a war zone.  The escorts should have been able to both provide early warning  as well as provide some defensive jamming and firepower to engage the Neptune missiles.  There is no indication from the news yet released that the escorts were effective. (However, we are undoubtedly not getting all the information at this point.  Essentially, I am reading "between the lines" in the news reports, and so could very well be wrong on these points).  Based on what I've both experienced and read about the Soviet navy, it could very well be a combination of poor crew training, poor maintenance, and the resulting inoperable gear that prevented the Moskva's systems from being employed.  In addition, it could be poor planning that allowed it to go into a combat zone with either an inadequate escort or while in poor material condition.  We really don't know at this point.  However, historically, the Soviet/Russian navy is not known for its high standards of training and maintenance.

Regarding the state of the damage control of the Moskva.  Damage control is a difficult skill to master, and requires significant training and resources.  Since WWII, no one has been better in it than the USN.  I can testify that it takes significant training time and resources to be as good as the USN has historically been at it. (Note, I said "Historically".  There are indications that the USN is losing this competency, but that is another post). The Ukrainians are claiming that 2 missiles hit the Moskva.  That would be a mission kill if it happened to a 10,000 ton USN ship, like a Ticonderoga class CG.  The only issue is whether the ship could be saved.  That is determined largely by 3 factors: Luck in what systems were knocked out by the hit(s); 2) the design characteristics of the ship and 3) the damage control skill of the crew.  Because we don't know where the ship was hit, or even how many hits it suffered, it is difficult to evaluate what happened.  The Russians claim they suffered a weapons detonation.  Assuming this is true, and assuming the weapons detonation was the result of a hit by the Neptune missile, then the most likely candidates would be the SS-N-12 launchers or the SA-N-6 VLS.  Either one could cause a major fire under the right conditions.  The SS-N-12/P-1000 is a liquid fuel missile, so if it gets burning, you will get a good fire.  But, the launchers being outside the hull could actually help minimze the damage, as any explosion would largely vent away from the hull.  But, possibly the liquid fuel could seep into the hull through a breech, and start a fire.  Conversely, an explosion in the VLS could either be better, or not.  Presumably, there are fire extinguishing systems in the VLS.  But those could have been knocked out by the hit.  The SA-N-6 is a solid fuel missile, so it is theoretically safer.  But if the VLS begins burning, it is a fire inside the ship, which can spread via cable runs or simple heat transfer through bulkheads or unsecured hatches.  This is where the material condition of the ship and the training of the crew comes in.  Additionally, there is luck.  If the ship suffered a hit in the engineering spaces that took out power, or multiple salt water loops, the crew may not have the power or water to fight the fire even if they are properly trained.  Because the ship was being towed, we know it lost power, although that could have happened via progressive damage instead of as a direct consequence of the hit(s).  However, given the amount of space an engineering plant takes up in a ship, and given that the Neptune is a sea-skimming missile, the odds are that at least one of the hits negatively impacted the engineering plant.  This could potentially have significant repercussions to any fire fighting effort, as without power, it becomes very difficult (but not impossible, depending on the situation) to fight major fires on a ship.

What conclusions can we draw? We really don't have enough information yet.  Right now, all we can do is draw up a list of hypotheses.  With that said, given the 100+ year history of poor Russian naval training and maintenance, I would guess that those were factors in the loss of the Moskva.


Wow.  Excellent post Tripoli.  Thank you for taking the time and generously sharing that information. 

Happy Easter.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 15, 2022, 11:59:19 AM
Here's a "Quick Look" at the effect(s) of the loss of the Moskva on the war and on Russia.  It's a quick read, but worth it.  gCaptain is a good site for things maritime

https://gcaptain.com/moskva-missile-cruiser-sinking-significance/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 15, 2022, 12:10:35 PM
^From the above:

'If it was holed by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles, it would be the biggest Russian warship to be lost in action since 1941, when German dive bombers crippled the Soviet battleship Marat in Kronshtadt harbor. Western diplomats and experts expect senior officers in the Black Sea Fleet to lose their jobs over the sinking.'

nice
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on April 15, 2022, 01:17:08 PM
I think Russia is making a strong case for why we can't let Iran or any bad actor state get Nukes.  Russia would be a nation of nobodies if they had no nukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 15, 2022, 01:44:24 PM
I think we all agree that Iran getting nukes is a bad idea.  The dispute has always been about the means, rather than the ends.  I can imagine a world where the Chinese actively encourage nuclear proliferation over the next 20 or 30 years, whatever we do about Iran.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 15, 2022, 01:55:34 PM
Last Saturday the UK announced a major weapons package for Ukraine. Anti-ship Harpoon missiles are part of that package. Looks like the Ukrainians will put them to good use.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18217396/britain-armoured-vehicles-zelensky-kyiv-2/ (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18217396/britain-armoured-vehicles-zelensky-kyiv-2/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 15, 2022, 02:13:52 PM
CNN - 'Zelensky says world should be prepared for possibility Putin could use nuclear weapons':

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/15/politics/tapper-zelensky-interview-cnntv/index.h
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 15, 2022, 02:25:47 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 15, 2022, 02:13:52 PM
CNN - 'Zelensky says world should be prepared for possibility Putin could use nuclear weapons':

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/15/politics/tapper-zelensky-interview-cnntv/index.h

That combined with Russia warning the US to stop arming the Ukrainians means this could all spin in a very bad direction, very soon.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 15, 2022, 02:33:25 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 15, 2022, 10:32:54 AM
Anybody else find it ironic that a WW II Russian Heavy Cruiser with armor probably would've been a far more effective, and survivable, ship than the Moskva for this kind of inshore work? Or one of their old BB's? Or maybe a monitor, the Russians had some excellent monitors working the Amur River vs Japan in 1945. Just an uneducated thought.

  Amphibious attacks aren't easy for any navy.  The catch here is that Moskava was the most survivable of a mixed bag of ships.  Theoretically, with all her radars on, she could deal with
anything the Ukrainians could dish out.  Now the Russians don't have a credible threat of making an amphibious attack on Odessa and that adds 2-3 brigade-sized formations to what the
Ukrainians can make available elsewhere.
How good was Moskava? On a good day, probably around half as capable as a USN Arleigh Burke for the same air defense job.  We have about 70 of those.  The Russians have 2 remaining PR1164 (the Atlantico/Slava class that Moskava was in) and those aren't looking great.  An article on the PR1164s concludes that within a decade ( after 2020) they will be more dangerous to their crews than anyone else unless they undergo massive modernization (prophetic words) .

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/1164-mods.htm
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 15, 2022, 02:45:23 PM
Masterly posts, Trip! (including the prior one)

Quote from: Sir Slash on April 15, 2022, 10:32:54 AM
Anybody else find it ironic that a WW II Russian Heavy Cruiser with armor probably would've been a far more effective, and survivable, ship than the Moskva for this kind of inshore work? Or one of their old BB's? Or maybe a monitor, the Russians had some excellent monitors working the Amur River vs Japan in 1945. Just an uneducated thought.

They had some very bossy monitors on the Dnepr, too, until Hitler came to power; then they got divided up and moved to the Pripyat swamp naval base, and to a naval base on the river (Dnester), in recently "liberated" Bukhovina, leading to the Ploesti oil fields. Whereupon they got blitzed a couple of years later, though in the case of the Dnester river fleet it wasn't for lack of strong support (including shelling by the Soviet Black Sea navy and a successful special ops invasion of Romania across the river.)

Meanwhile, 15 days ago on April 1st...  ^-^



...actually a good discussion, despite the April 1st theme.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 15, 2022, 02:52:45 PM
Over on Military History Visualized: the day of the tank is over y'all!



Zombie tanks roam the battlefield -- since 1919!  ^-^

(It's really a discussion on why the tank keeps coming back as a successful weapon platform despite being thoroughly defeated many times over the decades, starting with a quote about the death of tank warfare in 1973 due to Israeli losses.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 15, 2022, 04:01:42 PM
This looks like a metal album cover.   \m/

(https://i.redd.it/7efomiv2tqt81.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 15, 2022, 04:23:05 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 15, 2022, 04:01:42 PM
This looks like a metal album cover.   \m/

"Sabaton!  Message for Sabaton!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on April 15, 2022, 04:56:28 PM
Tanks are just part of the weapons mix. When mis-used they are a liability, like sending foot infantry, alone, across miles of open plains. Properly supported in the right terrain, tanks can be a terror.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 15, 2022, 05:08:37 PM
dead tank skull
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 15, 2022, 07:09:30 PM
Bolt Thrower never felt more appropriate.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 15, 2022, 11:07:02 PM
I have doubts if this is real.
what say yee?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 15, 2022, 11:47:57 PM
Doesn't look like stormy seas to me.  However, the Pentagon has confirmed that it was two hits with Neptune missiles.  For whatever that's worth.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 16, 2022, 12:44:16 AM
Im pretty sure its fake.  Im leaving it up because its fun to watch.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on April 16, 2022, 12:54:47 AM
Noise of the explosion travels faster than speed of sound.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 16, 2022, 12:57:46 AM
another map update:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1515178039327535106/photo/1

I swear Ive played this wargame many times before.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 16, 2022, 01:40:05 AM
I found this comment on twitter and just cant stop laughing.

Someone once wrote to me, if they attack Nato, they gonna find out why there is no free health care in the USA.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 16, 2022, 01:46:03 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQZok7dXwAIMA6I?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 16, 2022, 02:04:29 AM
for whatever its worth, I think this is one of the defining images of this war.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQaqhwiXsAY8gB1?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 16, 2022, 09:30:36 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 15, 2022, 11:07:02 PM
I have doubts if this is real.
what say yee?



I think the might be a Ropucha-class LSD, or some other similar LSD-type amphibious ship. I've taken a screen shot and sharpened the image.
(https://i.imgur.com/T9oG5rg.png)

First, the ship does not appear to be underway (or is going very slowly), as there is no bow wake, or disturbance near the stern (arrows 1).  Second, the bow of the image in the video appears to draw sharply upward (arrow 2).  This could be an optical illusion made by the SS-N-12 launchers.  However, I think it is more likely that it is the upward draw of an amphibous ship, like the Ropucha-class.

Third, what appears to be the the funnel of the ship appears to be higher than any other element of the superstructure, and the top of the funnel "tumble home" (falls inward), like a Ropucha does.  In contrast, the Slava has a straight funnel.  See

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/69c1976151ac06e9624d53eb1eb72f9cab1346c5/112_0_1800_1080/master/1800.jpg?width=465&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=e275d92f9728abeafc1121bd20e8d636)

for a stern image of a Slava class cruiser and

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/%D0%91%D0%94%D0%9A_%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80_%D0%A8%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BD.png)

for the Ropucha, showing the relatively higher stack and its "tumble home". 


I'm not sold on it being a Ropucha.  The stern well deck area  looks different.  Further, I'm not sure any Ropucha's have been used in live fire SINKEXs, which (based on the fact the ship does not appear to be underway) is what this video may be from.  Of note, if this is a SINKEX, the ship may appear slightly different in terms of armament and masts, as these are sometimes taken off for use in other ships before sinking the hulk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 16, 2022, 09:55:15 AM
FWIW, we now know a little bit about the location of the engagement.  Based on satellite images, the Moskva was at  45°10'43.39″N, 30°55'30.54″E, "This position is east of Snake Island, 80 nautical miles from Odesa and 50 nautical miles from the Ukrainian coast. "

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/satellite-image-pinpoints-russian-cruiser-moskva-as-she-burned/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 16, 2022, 10:56:05 AM
Nataliya Vasilyeva, Moscow correspondent for The Telegraph (UK) :

It's been more than 48hrs since the Moskva sank with 500 people aboard. We still haven't seen any photos/videos of the rescued crew.
What is most stunning we haven't seen a single wife or mother going public about the loss, demanding answers from the Russian government.

I've been covering Russia for 14 and I have seen space for public debate shrinking every year and people getting increasingly scared of speaking out but the level of fear we're seeing now is unmatched.



Today Putin signed a law that introduces fines for Russians from 1,000 to 5,000 rubles or arrest for up to 15 days for publicly identifying the role of the USSR and Nazi Germany in World War II.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQeRSCyWUAcQ_qf?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 16, 2022, 11:18:12 AM
Not much new to see here, but discusses some stats and capabilities on each platform. Might connect some dots for other people...? Does (seem to) have the advantage of the guy having walked the deck of the Moskva personally during a good will tour years ago.



The video shows a very clear side-shot of the smokestack, by the way, for comparison to the ship being blasted, illustrating Tripoli's comparison even better.

Meanwhile, I agree obviously that can't be the Moskva being hit in the video. For one thing, it was night-time, right? -- not only a heavy storm (also missing)? (I'm not totally sure about the night-time, but I've seen that several places, including "Sub Brief" again.) Then who exactly would have phone-filmed and uploaded it?? This is aside from design problems mentioned by Tripoli, to which I'd add the total lack 'fck-off carrier!' missile tubes on the side. ;) There should also be a.... well, not sure what that is, kind of like a large globe, on the back of the Moskva, not at all there for the ship being sunk-ex'd.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on April 16, 2022, 11:53:58 AM
I was wondering whether that footage might have been from the earlier missile strike, but the ship the Ukrainians hit in Berdyansk was an Alligator-class LST that was berthed and not at sea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 16, 2022, 01:53:34 PM
some really interesting heat maps.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQe2iyIakAEgNrU?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQe2iyqacAI08qm?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 16, 2022, 02:33:07 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 16, 2022, 11:18:12 AM
Not much new to see here, but discusses some stats and capabilities on each platform. Might connect some dots for other people...? Does (seem to) have the advantage of the guy having walked the deck of the Moskva personally during a good will tour years ago.



The video shows a very clear side-shot of the smokestack, by the way, for comparison to the ship being blasted, illustrating Tripoli's comparison even better.

Meanwhile, I agree obviously that can't be the Moskva being hit in the video. For one thing, it was night-time, right? -- not only a heavy storm (also missing)? (I'm not totally sure about the night-time, but I've seen that several places, including "Sub Brief" again.) Then who exactly would have phone-filmed and uploaded it?? This is aside from design problems mentioned by Tripoli, to which I'd add the total lack 'fck-off carrier!' missile tubes on the side. ;) There should also be a.... well, not sure what that is, kind of like a large globe, on the back of the Moskva, not at all there for the ship being sunk-ex'd.

The globe/cupcakie-looking thing is the "TOP DOME" FCR for the SS-N-6 SAM missiles.  https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/top-dome.htm.  The "Sub Brief" Youtube channel is a good open source for Naval information.  The guy who runs it is a retired enlisted USN submariner (I believe he was a sonarman), and he has good insight on undersea warfare topics.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 16, 2022, 11:02:20 PM
and another Russian general killed...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/another-russian-general-has-been-killed-in-ukraine/ar-AAWi2iw?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c59b6cb8c33949678f0b6a3966442d8f (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/another-russian-general-has-been-killed-in-ukraine/ar-AAWi2iw?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c59b6cb8c33949678f0b6a3966442d8f)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2022, 12:03:52 AM
 <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2022, 12:05:18 AM
can someone lay it down barney style as to why Kaliningrad is a thing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 17, 2022, 03:55:47 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2022, 12:05:18 AM
can someone lay it down barney style as to why Kaliningrad is a thing.

Translation of a article in french (https://www.rtbf.be/article/geopolitique-et-guerre-en-ukraine-kaliningrad-et-le-corridor-de-sulwalki-deux-grands-points-faibles-de-lotan-10975442)


Geopolitics and war in Ukraine: Kaliningrad and the Suwalki "corridor", two major weak points of NATO?

The railway line is the last that carries passengers in operation between Russian territory and that of the European Union. Until the end of March, there was also the Saint-Petersburg–Helsinki, high-speed train linking the two cities in three and a half hours . But the Finnish railway company stopped running it. The Moscow-Kaliningrad continues. 100 trains per month still connect the two cities, according to a route that passes through Minsk, in Belarus.

Kaliningrad... Where does this territorial curiosity come from? This little piece of Russia wedged between the Baltic Sea, Lithuania and Poland? About 15,000 km2 of Russia (a little less than half the area of ​​Belgium) which is also a serious thorn in the side for NATO. An oblast – Russian administrative region – of high strategic value, full of weapons, whose threat hangs over the future of this war in Ukraine.


An "exclave" with historical contours

A small million inhabitants live in the Kaliningrad Oblast. This land has a rich history. Land of the Teutonic Knights in the 13th century, they founded Prussia there. In 1807, this is where the Treaty of Tilsit was signed, between the French Empire and Tsar Alexander. The city on the Nemen is now called Sovetsk.

The main city of this territory is Königsberg. A "king's mountain" (named in honor of Ottokar II of Bohemia), inherited from the Crusades, strongly defended, which flourished over the centuries.

A prosperous city, an important trading port, it would become the capital of Eastern Prussia. Being part of German territory, it is the birthplace of the great philosopher Emmanuel Kant as well as many doctors and mathematicians. Main city of a region of German culture, they will both fall into the Soviet fold after the Second World War.


Window on the Baltic...

Following the Yalta and then Potsdam agreements in 1945 , the USSR was thus to be awarded the northern part of this German East Prussia. The south will be for Poland. Königsberg is renamed Kaliningrad. Named after Michaïl Kalinine, figurehead of the Supreme Soviet between 1919 and 1946. The German population was driven out of the territory (oblast which also took the name of its capital, as is customary) and replaced by Russians. 80% of the inhabitants are now of Russian origin. Stalin wants to make the city a Soviet model city.

After a brief independence and crushed resistance, the Baltic countries are annexed by Stalin as Soviet socialist republics.

Kaliningrad Oblast, for its part directly attached to Soviet Russia, was to become, during the Cold War, the headquarters of the Russian fleet in the Baltic. A strategic outpost, also called "Little Russia" far from being devoid of interest, because the main ports of the region (Kaliningrad and Baltiisk – formerly Pillau-), unlike other large Russian ports overlooking the Baltic, St. Petersburg (then Leningrad) or Kronstadt, are ice-free all year round. Closed to foreigners and even to a majority of Soviets, "Little Russia", it lives on oil and amber .

Suddenly, in 1991, everything changes. The Soviet Union implodes. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania gain independence, Poland leaves the bosom of the Warsaw Pact, a new era begins. Kaliningrad becomes isolated from the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation. The "enclave" becomes "exclave".


...And on Europe

To remedy this, and as the time has passed for the Cold War, the local authorities thought in the 1990s of making the area a kind of "Hong Kong on the Baltic". Moscow does not hear it that way. It fears separatist desires and would like to continue to benefit from its geographical and strategic position in the heart of northern Europe. It will however reduce military contingent and armament. The oblast becomes a defensive counter.

We are trying to develop tourism in Kaliningrad in the course of the 2000s , we are celebrating the 750th anniversary of its erection, we are even playing World Cup matches there in 2018.

But since 2014 and the capture of Crimea by Vladimir Putin, the time of tensions has indeed returned... In the meantime, the European Union has extended to the Baltic and Eastern countries and NATO is getting closer, also little by little also from Moscow...


Arsenal

The Kremlin will strengthen its control over the oblast. And we're going to remilitarize it. S-400 missiles, an anti-aircraft defense system with a range of 400 km are present. Ballistic missiles with Iskander nuclear warheads were deployed in the exclave five years ago . These have a range of 500 km and can therefore affect large parts of Poland, Sweden, and the Baltic countries.

NATO, meanwhile, wants to be reassuring towards the countries of the region (American anti-missile shield, military contingents on the spot, etc.). Exercises were conducted by the organization. The Russians showed their muscles during the ZAPAD exercises in 2017 (troops in Russia, Belarus and Kaliningrad). On February 8, the Russians deployed MIG 314 aircraft carrying hypersonic missiles to the enclave. These would have a range of... 2400 km.

A Russian strategic bastion on the Baltic coast , Kaliningrad would contain today 30,000 men.


The Suwalki Corridor

This largely misunderstood "Suwalki Corridor" is currently in the spotlight. Because it is a famous weak link for NATO. 35 kilometers long, it is located on either side of the border between Lithuania and Poland . This area, named after a Polish town near the border, is also the shortest point between the enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus.

Thus, if they had the idea of ​​continuing the war in Europe, for the Russians, conquering this "corridor", with its rural aspects of small green hills, would be of a use... more than not negligible... Because if Moscow succeeds in territorially linking Kaliningrad to its faithful Belarusian ally, the Baltic States would be, de facto, isolated from Poland, and therefore from the rest of NATO. From NATO but also from the European Union.


Isolation

This scenario is the nightmare of the Baltic States. They would find themselves on an island , as aid could only be provided by air or by sea. Not so simple, especially since Sweden and Finland (the port of Helsinki is opposite that of Tallinn, Estonia), are still not members of NATO. Stockholm and Helsinki are in deep reflection at the moment regarding a possible future within the Atlantic alliance . The Lithuanians, like their close neighbours, are in panic fear of suffering the fate of Ukraine and seeing the Russians invade them again.


Lithuania and barbed wire

A junction between Belarus, whose troops are massed on the border, in Lida, and an over-armed Kaliningrad oblast which worries Vilnius a lot. The Lithuanian authorities fear an even greater reinforcement of Russian troops in Kaliningrad after the operations in Ukraine.

Shelters are set up for civilians, sirens tested, Russian media banned ... We are preparing in Lithuania and locking the Belarusian border. As this border guard commander told the Arte teams , 23 kilometers of barbed wire have already been installed and 17 kilometers already well fenced. The barrier was originally a device built to prevent the passage of migrants following the crisis between Europe and Belarus late last year .

Now the goal has changed. And it is towards the east and the tanks coming from the Belarusian and Russian plains that the Baltic eyes, worried, are turned...


Threats at sea

But not only. They are also turned towards Kaliningrad, a veritable powder keg in the center of the region, from which could come military attacks, but also attempts at destabilization (with cyberattacks, disinformation, manipulation of Russian-speaking minorities, etc.). A kind of "hybrid war" led by Moscow against NATO.

The region is therefore of crucial strategic importance. Moscow uses Kaliningrad and its armaments (including nuclear weapons) to put pressure on NATO. A threat due to history, on the shores of the calm waters of the Baltic...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2022, 07:01:38 AM
I love being immature!

Quotecelebrating the 750th anniversary of its erection

must have been quite the erection!  :bd:  <:-)  :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 17, 2022, 07:31:18 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2022, 07:01:38 AM
I love being immature!

Quotecelebrating the 750th anniversary of its erection

must have been quite the erection!  :bd:  <:-)  :DD

  Meanwhile -- Zelensky may be worried that the Russians are going to declare victory and a ceasefire and then sit where they are (assuming they get Mariupol soon) and demand that
Ukraine negotiate on those terms.  If the Russians were wise (and that hasn't happened lately) they could do that.  It doesn't sound great, but it would put Ukraine in a bad position since
they would seem to be the ones bent on continuing the war (and they would be) and the burden of an offensive would be on them.  This would be a good short-term stop for the Russians
and they could even possibly back out of the whole mess without losing too much except the neutrality of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden and an unimaginable amount of prestige and maybe being
kicked out of the UN Security Council.  Still, the smart thing for the Russians (and I'm sure Zelensky can see this) would be to stop now.  Will they stop?  Probably not and they run the risk
of total collapse on all fronts even if they take most of the Donbas just before that happens.



  From CNN: Zelensky: Civilian deaths and Mariupol assault makes talks with Russia unlikely

Russia's unrelenting assault on the city of Mariupol and the likely discovery of more Russian crimes against civilians will make further diplomatic talks impossible, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday.

"The destruction of all our guys in Mariupol -- what they are doing now -- can put an end to any format of negotiations," he said, according to an article posted on the presidential website.
It added that while Zelensky was open to discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, that is becoming less likely as Russia continues to escalate its war. If more apparent Russian war crimes surface, "there will be no chance that negotiations will be held," Zelensky said.

The article was titled: "The more Russia escalates, the less likely the President of Ukraine is to negotiate."


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2022, 09:26:12 AM
I want!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQiowoDXIAMm3aM?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 17, 2022, 10:50:53 AM
^You mean that shot wasn't taken in your living room?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 17, 2022, 11:07:32 AM
I want some of those new Ukrainian postage stamps with a Ukrainian soldier giving the 'Snake Island Salute' to the Moskva...

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-14/card/russian-warship-moskva-is-featured-in-new-ukrainian-postage-stamp-6qEW3wsyWdSsEP7CeVWq (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-14/card/russian-warship-moskva-is-featured-in-new-ukrainian-postage-stamp-6qEW3wsyWdSsEP7CeVWq)

But looks like they are wildly popular in the Ukraine so may be hard to get.

https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-warship-stamp-becomes-collector-s-item-in-ukraine-/6531713.html (https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-warship-stamp-becomes-collector-s-item-in-ukraine-/6531713.html)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 17, 2022, 03:39:55 PM
Quotemore than not negligible

This Franglish phrase could replace "progress is being occurred" as my favorite semi-English quip of all time! (I realize, as a geek, that "All your base are belong to us" should always be in the top five; so it's still #3.  :nerd: )


More seriously, ohhhhh -- I thought that might be a leftover piece of East Germany somehow, but I didn't realize it was directly assigned as a piece of Russia so far back as 1945. (?? really? is that right?!) Also I didn't realize it actually included Konigsberg -- I thought it was just really close next door to it (sort of like Danzig and Gdansk). Probably because I thought Kalinin was a distinct city up there somewhere in the Baltic already before WW2. (I wonder why I thought that...?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on April 17, 2022, 04:03:48 PM
I imagine the soviets wanted at least one piece of former German territory to piss on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 17, 2022, 04:14:12 PM
The legacy of Kaliningrad is also part of the destruction of Prussia and all things Prussian.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 17, 2022, 04:24:01 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 17, 2022, 10:50:53 AM
^You mean that shot wasn't taken in your living room?

   One way or another (two recent things in the CNN updates suggest anyway), the Russians are leaving or being pushed out of the Kharkiv area.  This suggests the Russians might be trying to consolidate farther SE and claim victory once they take Mariupol.  Of course, if they are trying to declare victory and offer a ceasefire (that Ukraine can't accept, as Zelensky has already hinted), it seems just as likely that
they will shoot themselves in both feet by attacking NATO resupply or nuking something.  It seems possible that once they get Mariupol they will offer a ceasefire on the line they hold from Kherson to the LNR.
This will leave Ukraine in the odd situation of wanting to continue the war with major offensive action.  So things may get strange indeed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2022, 11:42:40 PM
 :2funny:
it sure looks like she took a hit in a missile tube.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQlQ4CtXsAA6c3m?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 18, 2022, 02:02:22 AM
 :DD  :clap:

(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/809253734507872269/965473435008524369/unknown.png?width=522&height=676)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 18, 2022, 06:18:15 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2022, 11:42:40 PM
:2funny:
it sure looks like she took a hit in a missile tube.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQlQ4CtXsAA6c3m?format=jpg&name=medium)

  Yep and it looks like she fired half her Grumbles so her radars were working when she got hit.  The forward short-range defense missiles (about 20 Geckos forward) might have fired as
well so maybe the Ukrainians just fired a fair number of
Neptunes when the sea was rough and the radar clutter from waves and rain and low sheets of cloud was dense and two Neptunes got through and hit low down
amidships...sort of the opposite of fire that triggers the ammunition.   The evenly-spaced burn marks high on the hull seem kind of odd, almost like another ship's
missile defense guns shot a swerving burst her way or maybe that's just were fire from deep in the ship shot out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on April 18, 2022, 07:13:49 AM
The evenly spaced scorch marks seem odd indeed.

As it's larger in size compared to the other scorch marks, the aft scorch mark next to the Ka-27 hangar might be the second hit. The ship seems to be deeper in the water there, but that looks like an optical effect caused by a wave. The water is higher between the SA-N-6 launchers and those aft outboard stairs.

Either 2 or 4 SS-N-12's might've blown up, it's difficult to see whether the third pair is still there.

The roughly amidships missile hit the area where a pair of AK-630's is located. Would an explosion of a Neptune very close to one of those launch tubes have any chance of penetrating it with debris or the warhead/fuel explosion if the AK-630's or a missile hit the Neptune close to the ship?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 18, 2022, 07:41:30 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on April 18, 2022, 07:13:49 AM
The evenly spaced scorch marks seem odd indeed.

As it's larger in size compared to the other scorch marks, the aft scorch mark next to the Ka-27 hangar might be the second hit. The ship seems to be deeper in the water there, but that looks like an optical effect caused by a wave. The water is higher between the SA-N-6 launchers and those aft outboard stairs.

Either 2 or 4 SS-N-12's might've blown up, it's difficult to see whether the third pair is still there.

The roughly amidships missile hit the area where a pair of AK-630's is located. Would an explosion of a Neptune very close to one of those launch tubes have any chance of penetrating it with debris or the warhead/fuel explosion if the AK-630's or a missile hit the Neptune close to the ship?

  Good points.  Definitely 1-2 hits or near misses (the AK-630s could explode the missile so close that it might broaden the damage high up) midships with other damage maybe from friendly fire
from aft to midships.  So both the Russians and the Ukrainians could be right -- very close hits or misses -- looks like a real hit low down maybe 3 meters above where the water line would have
been and then all kinds of other things (fires, ammo, friendly fire).  I think the decks are just much lower far aft...really not that much damage back there?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on April 18, 2022, 07:50:47 AM
There's also the extreme "friendly fire isn't friendly" scenario where no Neptune hit the ship, but some rapid fire cannon from an escort ripped through the SS-N-12's.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 18, 2022, 08:23:51 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on April 18, 2022, 07:50:47 AM
There's also the extreme "friendly fire isn't friendly" scenario where no Neptune hit the ship, but some rapid fire cannon from an escort ripped through the SS-N-12's.

  The scorches might be from AA hits from an escort's 76mm gun.  It is odd they are on the same side as what looks like at least one big Neptune hit.  With the bigger waves on the 13th (picture is from
about 36 hours later), escorts trying to hit a drone high up on the other side might have hit Moskva while accidently blocking detection of missiles coming in from their side.  There is also that
video shot from land about 60 km away that shows flashes all over the sky (big and little) over a front of about 10-15 km so a lot of shooting was happening out there as the drones and missiles closed in.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 18, 2022, 08:44:02 AM
there just scorch marks through portholes from the fire that broke out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 09:03:30 AM
I'm going to do a bit of "stream of consciousness" analysis here.  If my writing appears to be disjointed, I apologize in advance.
Using an enhanced image found here: https://twitter.com/WarObserver14/status/1515838321682882567/photo/1, it appears one missile hit near the waterline (arrow 1).  I agree with Star, that apparently the resulting fires blew out pannels along the hull.  That explains the unusually spaced scorch marks where the hull meets the main deck. (see arrow 2 for an example)
(https://i.imgur.com/U8KDasF.jpg)


This hit appears to be just forward of the main funnel .  Base on the schematic below, this may have hit approximately between the two engineering spaces, which is probably an auxilliary engineering space.. Potentially, this hit took out both main spaces. [edit: its hard to tell, but looking at the image some more, I'm guessing the hit was approximately where the forward main engineering space is]
(https://i.imgur.com/1mPNMFq.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on April 18, 2022, 09:11:37 AM
Quote
there just scorch marks through portholes from the fire that broke out.

That might also explain the big scorch mark near the afterdeck. There are no portholes below the main deck in that area, but there's a row of portholes in front of the outboard stairs (so one deck below the other portholes). A fire through one of those portholes could cover a greater area, because the hull doesn't "end" at the main deck like at the other scorch marks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 18, 2022, 09:30:15 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on April 18, 2022, 09:11:37 AM
Quote
there just scorch marks through portholes from the fire that broke out.

That might also explain the big scorch mark near the afterdeck. There are no portholes below the main deck in that area, but there's a row of portholes in front of the outboard stairs (so one deck below the other portholes). A fire through one of those portholes could cover a greater area, because the hull doesn't "end" at the main deck like at the other scorch marks.

  Another odd thing: in one of those close-ups, you can see something happened under the big radar aft.  Another hit?  Or a secondary explosion?  With no scorching?  Looks like something hit just under the big radar -- maybe even went through without exploding?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 18, 2022, 09:44:14 AM
thats where the ships torpedos are located.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 09:46:29 AM
Here's a photo of how high the Slava is supposed to ride in the water.
(https://i.imgur.com/itvXJjM.jpg)
When the damaged photo was taken, it was clearly sinking.  The absence of the life rafts near the aft hanger structure show the ship had been abandoned when the photo was taken.  Of note, the TOP DOME FCR (arrow 1) appears to be in the "stowed" position, possibly indicating that the ship was not prepared to engage any aerial targets with the SA-N-6 . SImilarly, the portside POP GROUP  radar is stowed (arrow 3), indicating the SA-N-4 system FCR was was not  prepared to engage targets on the portside.
(https://i.imgur.com/MXR7lhW.jpg)

This image also shows the location of the waterline hit, and indicates it was aft of the SS-N-12 launchers.   Of note, the torpedoes on the slava are carried near the hanger, just below the main deck.  THis may explain the scorch marks near hanger deck that ComradP mentions.  I'm also interested in the damage shown by the box.  This may be a hull crack. While the image isn't clear, the deck appears to be thrust upwards near the scorch mark that is enclosed by the box on this image.  Possibly a detonation of the torpedoes?

The missing hatches on the SA-N-6 VLS may simply be a reflection of damage control efforts.  Possibly the crew was attempting to cool the missile by running water "fog" over the missiles to keep them cool.  Alternatively, if the hull had cracked, the hatches may be popping off as the hull flexes in the sea.

In these images, I don't see the SS-N-12 launchers as clearly damaged.  They may be, but I don't clearly see it.  I'm also not sure where the second hit occurred.  The missiles could have both hit in the same area, so the damage being attributed to one missile may in fact be from two missiles. Or maybe there was only one hit, or the second hit is not visible because it is below the water.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 18, 2022, 09:51:34 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 18, 2022, 09:44:14 AM
thats where the ships torpedos are located.

  I was thinking pretty high up:

 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 10:08:40 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 18, 2022, 09:51:34 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 18, 2022, 09:44:14 AM
thats where the ships torpedos are located.

  I was thinking pretty high up:



The torpedoes are carried lower in the hull.  I've highlighted the torpedo firing hatch in the image below.  Having them low helps lower topside weight (which is always a good thing) and also ensures the torpedoes also get over the side, instead of sliding limply onto the main deck in the event of a misfire.  :)

(https://i.imgur.com/dvOcKkd.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on April 18, 2022, 10:16:51 AM
I was beginning to wonder if the launchers were hit, it didn't really match with the diagram I saw earlier.

Unless I'm seeing things, it looks like there's still a tug or another boat "behind" the Moskva in the picture trying to control the fire. That elevated water cannon, for lack of a better word, doesn't belong to the Moskva I think and there's a mast visible above the SA-N-6 launchers.

As to the scorch marks: after thinking about it some more, it does seem odd that there's no smoke. Either the firefighting was successful in that area, or those scorch marks were caused by the internal explosion the Russians mentioned.

An explosion would explain the scorch marks without smoke trailing from the holes: pressure from the blast blows away plating or portholes from the inside, followed by a fireball and nothing after that unless there's flammable/combustible material around. Given the size of the aft scorch mark, the torpedo storage Tripoli mentioned is a good candidate for either the primary or a secondary explosion.

Unless the on-board fire hoses/extinguishers all have independent auxiliary power generators, power seems to be working.

Tripoli, do you know what the significance could be of that central crane-like thing being elevated? What does that normally do?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 10:35:57 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on April 18, 2022, 10:16:51 AM
I was beginning to wonder if the launchers were hit, it didn't really match with the diagram I saw earlier.

Unless I'm seeing things, it looks like there's still a tug or another boat "behind" the Moskva in the picture trying to control the fire. That elevated water cannon, for lack of a better word, doesn't belong to the Moskva I think and there's a mast visible above the SA-N-6 launchers.

As to the scorch marks: after thinking about it some more, it does seem odd that there's no smoke. Either the firefighting was successful in that area, or those scorch marks were caused by the internal explosion the Russians mentioned.

An explosion would explain the scorch marks without smoke trailing from the holes: pressure from the blast blows away plating or portholes from the inside, followed by a fireball and nothing after that unless there's flammable/combustible material around. Given the size of the aft scorch mark, the torpedo storage Tripoli mentioned is a good candidate for either the primary or a secondary explosion.

Unless the on-board fire hoses/extinguishers all have independent auxiliary power generators, power seems to be working.

Tripoli, do you know what the significance could be of that central crane-like thing being elevated? What does that normally do?

There is a 3 second video (which I can't seem to locate now) that shows some type of vessel on the starboard side of the Moskva. Probably there isn't as much smoke in these images because the engineering spaces are all underwater.  I'm guessing that at this point, a lot of the fire has either burned itself out or has been submerged.   The crane you mention is normally stowed between the two stacks. see image below.  I'm guessing they used it to launch the ships boats (assuming any were sea worthy after the damage) and possibly the life rafts when they abandoned ship.  The life rafts would hold most of the crew, but they are unpowered.  As the ships boats are powered, they would be very useful in keeping the liferafts together, and rescuing anyone who didn't make it to the rafts, especially in any significant sea state.

Edit: I can't explain the damage to the area just forward of the helo hanger and just below where the TOP DOME radar is.  The outer bulkhead appears to have peeled back or collapsed, but there is no signs of scorching in the area, nor do the hanger doors appear to be scorched.  I don't believe any ammunition would be carried here.  More likely, it some type of room for electronic equipment associated with the TOP DOME.  The lack of scorching would seem to indicate it wasn't hit by a missile.  I really don't understand what happened here]

(https://i.imgur.com/sFNCA2P.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 18, 2022, 10:53:55 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 10:35:57 AM

Edit: I can't explain the damage to the area just forward of the helo hanger and just below where the TOP DOME radar is.  The outer bulkhead appears to have peeled back or collapsed, but there is no signs of scorching in the area, nor do the hanger doors appear to be scorched.  I don't believe any ammunition would be carried here.  More likely, it some type of room for electronic equipment associated with the TOP DOME.  The lack of scorching would seem to indicate it wasn't hit by a missile.  I really don't understand what happened here]


  It's pretty weird.  Maybe they cleared it as a way in or out of some threatened spaces or the shock of some explosion whiplashed the whole structure, partially ripping the radar out of place.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on April 18, 2022, 11:10:31 AM
That video with the tug made it clear that the water spray/jets left and right of the TOP DOME radar in that picture come from the tug.

I'm still not sure what that thing to the right of the crane is. The mast visible above the SA-N-6 launchers is on the bow of the tug.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 11:47:14 AM
And one other point IRT the Moskva sinking. GCaptain has a news story "Russian Admiral Meets Crew Of Sunken Flagship Moskva"  https://gcaptain.com/russian-navy-admiral-meets-crew-of-sunken-missile-cruiser-moskva/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-dd2dac8b0d-170465134&mc_cid=dd2dac8b0d&mc_eid=28239a3349  in the story it mentions that only about 100 crew (all who appear uninjured) are seen in the video meeting the Russian admiral.  Now there might be several reasons for only 100 crew members being in the video.  Possibly there were more, but images of them never made it to the released footage.  Possibly some are injured, and could not meet the Admiral.  Possibly some are still on other rescue vessels making their way to port. But, IMHO, if your story is that 500 crewmen were rescued from a sunken ship and then stage a photo op with an admiral, you need to have somewhere around 500 crew in the photo.  Based on this, I  suspect the crew losses (including injured) were pretty heavy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 18, 2022, 12:15:58 PM
^ The father of one of the young conscripts who went missing on the Moskva missile cruiser lashes out at the Russian military who are even refusing to tell him what happened to his son.
The father says he was contacted by other families of MIA conscripts from the ship.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQoWjqRWYAMp8zG?format=jpg&name=small)(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQoWm18WUA8ofof?format=jpg&name=small)


The irony? The father's page is full of pro-invasion and pro-Putin posts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 18, 2022, 12:21:33 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 10:35:57 AM
There is a 3 second video (which I can't seem to locate now)

Video is in the tweet.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1515971229978611715?

And in this article.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/picture-of-moskva-russian-warship-shows-devastation-after-ukraine-missile-strike
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 12:45:02 PM
This appears to be a fairly good analysis of the attack and aftermath:
https://intellinews.com/don-russia-s-black-sea-flagship-moskva-sunk-the-anatomy-of-a-missile-strike-241550/?source=russia
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 18, 2022, 02:18:44 PM
The Grim Reapers analyze that Moskva photo (I think -- at work, haven't had time to watch it through myself):




For some topical Cold War fun, 10 days ago they used DCS to pit Iowa class battleships (early 1980s refit) against Kirovs:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 18, 2022, 04:43:38 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 12:45:02 PM
This appears to be a fairly good analysis of the attack and aftermath:
https://intellinews.com/don-russia-s-black-sea-flagship-moskva-sunk-the-anatomy-of-a-missile-strike-241550/?source=russia

   That seems to cover a lot!  I thought the Grumbles could be used against sea-skimmers, but maybe not.  Also, the amount of radar clutter due to waves, rain, and clouds doesn't
seem to be a popular topic in these analyses.  NATO AWACS, a drone and 4 + 4 Neptunes from two directions seems to be enough to explain the hits.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 05:06:40 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 18, 2022, 04:43:38 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 12:45:02 PM
This appears to be a fairly good analysis of the attack and aftermath:
https://intellinews.com/don-russia-s-black-sea-flagship-moskva-sunk-the-anatomy-of-a-missile-strike-241550/?source=russia

   That seems to cover a lot!  I thought the Grumbles could be used against sea-skimmers, but maybe not.  Also, the amount of radar clutter due to waves, rain, and clouds doesn't
seem to be a popular topic in these analyses.  NATO AWACS, a drone and 4 + 4 Neptunes from two directions seems to be enough to explain the hits.

Based on the fact the POP GROUP (SA-N-4)  and TOP DOME (SA-N-6) FCRs appear to be in the "stowed" position, I'm not sure the Moskva ever even saw the attack coming.  Possibly on loss of power these FCRs revert to "stowed", but I doubt it.  In my mind, that is pretty good evidence the Russians were, for some reason, unprepared for the attack.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 18, 2022, 07:33:45 PM
I wonder if that factors back into the theory that Moskva lit up as the bait, then shut down and moved out the way hoping for its escorts to counter-battery shots taken at it. But if that was true, the active defense things wouldn't have been stowed away, right?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 18, 2022, 07:41:41 PM
From the IntelliNews article:

Getting a hit

'Returning to the moment when a Neptune missile appeared over the horizon at 22 km and with fifty seconds to impact, Moskva's reaction would have been a combination of kinetic and electronic countermeasures. We've listed the possible electronic countermeasures (ECM) above. Moskva was old and probably had an out-dated ECM suite unable to jam a modern agile seeker jumping from active radar to passive radar and back at the speed of software. Neptune's designers may well have had accurate information on Moskva's ECM suite as well, gained during service in Soviet times.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 18, 2022, 07:56:19 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 18, 2022, 12:15:58 PM
^ The father of one of the young conscripts who went missing on the Moskva missile cruiser lashes out at the Russian military who are even refusing to tell him what happened to his son.
The father says he was contacted by other families of MIA conscripts from the ship.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQoWjqRWYAMp8zG?format=jpg&name=small)(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQoWm18WUA8ofof?format=jpg&name=small)


The irony? The father's page is full of pro-invasion and pro-Putin posts.

As cute and funny as all the Moskva memes are, it is really no laughing matter. Posts like this one bring home the tragedy that it is not Putin or the "oligarchs" who are suffering...its the hapless conscripts who were forced into service, lied to and sent to their deaths.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 18, 2022, 08:25:05 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 18, 2022, 07:56:19 PM
....

As cute and funny as all the Moskva memes are, it is really no laughing matter. Posts like this one bring home the tragedy that it is not Putin or the "oligarchs" who are suffering...its the hapless conscripts who were forced into service, lied to and sent to their deaths.

Amen. I would estimate there are approximately 100 dead and/or crippled from the sinking of the Moskva.  Most of them died in very painful and horrible ways, and all of them died way too young.  And few, if any, were "bad" people who deserved to die.  Relatively few were likely even supporters of this war.  And while their deaths may have been necessary, it does not make them any less tragic. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 18, 2022, 10:43:12 PM
Yeah.  What you two said.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on April 19, 2022, 04:21:12 AM
It seems that the Russian assault in the East has commenced. I do hope Ukraine can stop them. I would love to hear of a massive Soviet...oops, Russian.....defeat, even as I doubt the possibility.

Ukraine-Russia war: Russia attacking Donbas region on 480km-long front involving 50,000 troops, Ukrainian officials say.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 19, 2022, 06:27:29 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 18, 2022, 07:41:41 PM
From the IntelliNews article:

Getting a hit

'Returning to the moment when a Neptune missile appeared over the horizon at 22 km and with fifty seconds to impact, Moskva's reaction would have been a combination of kinetic and electronic countermeasures. We've listed the possible electronic countermeasures (ECM) above. Moskva was old and probably had an out-dated ECM suite unable to jam a modern agile seeker jumping from active radar to passive radar and back at the speed of software. Neptune's designers may well have had accurate information on Moskva's ECM suite as well, gained during service in Soviet times.'

  Moskva might not have gotten all the latest ECM upgrades that for example, ships in the Northern or Baltic or Pacific Fleets might have gotten.  The Russian Black Sea Fleet seems to have been
underfunded and not recieved nearly as much recent and frontline gear as say the Northern or Pacific Fleets.  Even the dreaded hypersonic Kalibr missiles that have been hitting things apparently well on the Black Sea Fleet's latest frigates the two Kalibrs have to be cranked up in their launchers from where they are stowed behind the helicopter landing platform.  The set of more advanced or at least larger
frigates wasn't completed because the engines were to have been built in Ukraine.  So really, overall, the Black Sea Fleet is probably the least potent of the Russian Fleets at least in terms of having the
most recent upgrades and latest big frigates and it seems to have no functioning guided missile destroyers at all that I can find any references to. 
So apparently, whatever the tasks the Black Sea Fleet were expected to undertake -- they were not supposed to be anywhere near as demanding as the tasks of say the Northern or Pacific Fleets which at least do seem to have some guided missile destroyers.
And I guess Turkey willl not be letting any Russian ships through the straits so there's not much Russia can do to quickly build up the Black Sea Fleet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 19, 2022, 08:48:18 AM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10191381/The-women-fighting-Putin-Moment-opposition-politician-forced-isolate.html
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18927696/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0

I watched this documentary yesterday and became more depressed as it continued.

It is about Russian opposition politicians as they campaign in 2021 and refuse to back down.

They are not explicitly banned from taking part in the elections, they are simply making it impossible for them to get on an election list by breaking them physically and emotionally.

One is being forced to isolate in a hospital's Covid ward despite not having the virus so she can't register her candidacy.  When she is released after a hunger strike they still refuse to accept her candidacy because they claim she is a member of a terrorist group (connected to Navalny).
An other is arrested for breaking Covid rules by supposedly putting her followers in danger at a meeting.  When she leaves jail she is immediately arrested again for supposedly cursing in public.
Some are arrested for possession of drugs that have been planted on them or in their house by the police.

The all end up in jail almost without interruption until they are totally destroyed and see no other option than to leave Russia.
Protester Lusya Stein (member of Pussy Riot) says: 'To be a politician in Russia, you have to be prepared to lose everything... And sacrifice your life.' 

Russia is resembling more and more North Korea  :(.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 19, 2022, 12:08:18 PM
Pete, there's a really insightful article that talks about what the Russian middle class did for their country in the last 20 years at the link below.  They largely wrote off Russian national government as a sphere for improving their country and started doing all kinds of community-organizing and work to make a difference at the local level.  They are now seeing all those organizations disbanded and decapitated by a Russian national government that is under pressure and clamping down.

In a certain sense, it sounds like they made the same kind of deal with Putin that Western democracies did:  "Keep your unpleasant stuff under a certain level and we'll focus on doing the stuff we like."  As is usually the case with tyrants, you can only ignore them until they grow particularly powerful or desperate.

https://ukrainecrisis.org/006040282-putin-s-war-in-ukraine-shatters-an-illusion-in-russia
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 19, 2022, 12:28:10 PM
^
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.


A 1946 post-war prose about the silence of German intellectuals by the German Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 19, 2022, 12:42:35 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 19, 2022, 08:48:18 AM
Russia is resembling more and more North Korea  :(.

Their neighbors can only hope they reach the competency of North Korea.  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 19, 2022, 01:36:17 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 19, 2022, 12:42:35 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 19, 2022, 08:48:18 AM
Russia is resembling more and more North Korea  :(.

Their neighbors can only hope they reach the competency of North Korea.  :buck2:

   Well, they are up to 75% of their starting stuff:

  Official: US seeing new "limited offensive operations" by Russia southwest of Donetsk and south of Izium
From CNN's Michael Conte and Ellie Kaufman

The US has seen "limited offensive operations" undertaken by Russia southwest of Donetsk and south of Izium in Ukraine, according to a senior US defense official, who added that the US believes these are "preludes to larger offensive operations."

The official said the new operations have consisted of "ground movements ... supported, of course, by some long-range fires, mostly artillery."

But the official also stressed that Russia is still conducting "shaping operations" as well "to make sure they have logistics and sustainment in place" along with other "enabling capabilities."

The US expects to see a "more blended approach" to the new operations in Ukraine after their failures in the north of the country, according to the official.

Russia has added two more battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to its forces inside Ukraine in the last 24 hours, according to the official, bringing the total to 78 BTGs.

However, the official said the US assesses that Russia is now down to 75% of the "combat power" that had been amassed before the latest invasion of Ukraine.

"This is across all functions ... it's infantry, it's artillery, it's aviation, both fixed and rotary, it's ballistic missile, cruise missile," the official said on a call with reporters. "When you just add it all up, our general assessment is he's about 75% of his original combat power."


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2022, 02:50:14 PM
didnt those morons go into this with 150 btgs?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 19, 2022, 03:18:50 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2022, 02:50:14 PM
didnt those morons go into this with 150 btgs?

   Well, I thought it was something like that.  Maybe 78 btgs can still exhibit significant signs of orkish cohesion or something.  Maybe there's now a lot more
artillery and support elements or something.  Surely after throwing everything that can drop bombs at Mariupol, there must be some artillery and whatnot left to take the Donbas.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 19, 2022, 03:33:40 PM
Russia is determined to liberate the gas people of the Donbas region.


2011 : https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-shell-idUSL6N0ALD2U20130116

Ukraine took a step closer to a breakthrough shale gas deal with global energy major Royal Dutch Shell on Wednesday when local authorities in the eastern Donetsk region approved a planned production sharing agreement.

The former Soviet republic, which hopes its big shale gas reserves will help end reliance on costly imports of Russian natural gas, chose Shell last May as a partner to develop the Yuzivska shale gas field.
"At its peak, in 13-15 years, annual production may exceed 20 bcm. This will not only strengthen our energy independence but will also significantly reduce gas prices."

Ukraine currently pays about $430 per thousand cubic metres for Russian gas under a 10-year deal signed in 2009 by a preceding government. The present Kiev government says the price is exorbitant, but it has so far failed to persuade Russia to bring it down.

Shell sees investment at $10 billion under the most likely scenario and over $50 billion under the optimistic scenario.

"The Yuzivska area production sharing agreement is the biggest project in Ukraine that will attract tens of billions of dollars in investment," Proskuryakov said.



2015 : https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/opinion/russia-s-silent-shale-gas-victory-in-ukraine/

After the conflict began in 2014, oil and gas firms Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron withdrew their investments in the Yuzovsky and Olesska shale gas blocks.

In Russia's silent shale gas victory in Ukraine, the Russian-backed rebels fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions ensured that at least for the near future, Ukraine's shale gas potential will not be able to challenge Gazprom's gas monopoly in the region.




Coincidence ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2022, 04:24:44 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 19, 2022, 03:18:50 PM
   Well, I thought it was something like that.  Maybe 78 btgs can still exhibit significant signs of orkish cohesion or something.  Maybe there's now a lot more
artillery and support elements or something.  Surely after throwing everything that can drop bombs at Mariupol, there must be some artillery and whatnot left to take the Donbas.

I wonder how much life is left in those barrels.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2022, 07:19:46 PM
russian tank wants to be a subway

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQuDREeXMAMGrFi?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 19, 2022, 08:27:56 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 19, 2022, 03:18:50 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2022, 02:50:14 PM
didnt those morons go into this with 150 btgs?

   Well, I thought it was something like that.  Maybe 78 btgs can still exhibit significant signs of orkish cohesion or something.

I lol'd so hard at that I started coughing!  :DD

The "orc" references popping up recently are no doubt meant to call back to Tolkien, but this Warhammer/40K "ork" reference made me start hearing the typical WH "ork" lingo being applied to the Russians now.

When real war is certainly grim darkness, millions dead and millions more displaced and wounded in so many ways, humor sure helps with coping.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 19, 2022, 08:36:41 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2022, 07:19:46 PM
russian tank wants to be a subway

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQuDREeXMAMGrFi?format=jpg&name=medium)

Submarine? Wasn't there once a standard for Soviet tanks to be able to cross 1000 meters water to a depth of... 12 meters over the hull or something like that? I know that was introduced with the BT class tanks in WW2, but I don't recall how far it got. (The very extensive floating tank project, which was rather different, got canned after Barbarossa kicked off, and not restarted at anywhere like the original production of nearly 5000 units. The PanzerIish T-76 is the basic tank for the Sovs in Heroes and Generals by the way, and I always enjoyed taking it out on the river to snipe enemies trying to cross bridges at long range. Few players ever figured out where I was either.  >:D )

Back to the photo though: I have to infer that's just the turret blown off and flipped over, but the forensic side of my head is trying to figure out how to account for the barrel strike on the pavement in combination with the clear signs of the barrel coming up partially from the pavement -- not apparently settling into the pavement as might be expected if the turret landed and flipped over from the tip of the barrel first.  ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 19, 2022, 08:48:55 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 19, 2022, 03:18:50 PM
Maybe 78 btgs can still exhibit significant signs of orkish cohesion or something. 

You sure have a way with words.  If I didn't already have another quote of yours in my sig, I'd add this one!   :clap:   :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2022, 09:11:27 PM
Quotebut the forensic side of my head is trying to figure out how to account for the barrel strike on the pavement in combination with the clear signs of the barrel coming up partially from the pavement -- not apparently settling into the pavement as might be expected if the turret landed and flipped over from the tip of the barrel first.

they do bounce you know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 20, 2022, 06:23:59 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 19, 2022, 08:48:55 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 19, 2022, 03:18:50 PM
Maybe 78 btgs can still exhibit significant signs of orkish cohesion or something. 

You sure have a way with words.  If I didn't already have another quote of yours in my sig, I'd add this one!   :clap:   :2funny:

  Thanks!  I do some re-writing/editing and sometimes the results are worthwhile.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 20, 2022, 06:58:24 AM
"Tanks not fast enough; PAINT TANKS RED!" - Gen. Onodov Crushkin
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 20, 2022, 07:51:20 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 19, 2022, 08:27:56 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 19, 2022, 03:18:50 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2022, 02:50:14 PM
didnt those morons go into this with 150 btgs?

   Well, I thought it was something like that.  Maybe 78 btgs can still exhibit significant signs of orkish cohesion or something.

I lol'd so hard at that I started coughing!  :DD

The "orc" references popping up recently are no doubt meant to call back to Tolkien, but this Warhammer/40K "ork" reference made me start hearing the typical WH "ork" lingo being applied to the Russians now.

When real war is certainly grim darkness, millions dead and millions more displaced and wounded in so many ways, humor sure helps with coping.

   Well, as has been pointed out, we just happen to be able to see this particular war better than say, what's been happening for years in Yemen or Syria.  Even more strangely, the early 21st Century in terms of war deaths is still a lot lower than most of the 20th century.  So there is all that -- it's just that we are seeing more of the horror.  And I would extend that perception (where possible) to the poor Russians who are also suffering.
   Speaking of the Russians and in particular their current regime, it seems they have gotten themselves into another series of loose-loose dilemmas:  1) they really just want the Donbas 2) but they can't say that can they? 3) they have to go on threatening everybody 4) Turkey has closed the straits 5) they want NATO to back off, but the more they threaten, the more that thwarts their limited objective which is the Donbas and quick!....this all would have been much easier for them if they had done a deal early and said something like "We get the Donbas and Ukraine can join NATO"...this is pretty much where things have actually been going all along and its only in their fantasy world that it was ever going anywhere else.  Now of course they have succeeded in being so threatening (though now working hard to walk back the nuke threats) that they are thwarting even their very limited objectives and instead getting Finland and Sweden into NATO (and effectively Ukraine too since all Europe sees the benefit of loading Ukraine with weapons to pin the Russians down there).  So they can't do a lot of things that would have helped weeks ago: 1) blasting NATO reinforcement routes -- can't do that since that will actually accellerate reinforcement exactly when they would have liked it to be slowing so that they can overwhelm the Ukrainians attritionally.  2) Keeping up the threat to Odessa (straits closed, Moskva sunk
NATO weapons coming in) 3) threatening to use nukes and such (that again would only speed up NATO's reinforcements) This only leaves them with all their usual counter-productive stuff -- 1) drive around with their weird army 2) throw HE at everything 3) act confused about everything
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 20, 2022, 09:12:39 AM
A good and brief write up on some of the long-standing Soviet/Russian issues with damage control by Admiral James Stavridis (ret.).  He was a SWO, so his comments regarding damage control carry a bit of weight:
https://gcaptain.com/russias-sunken-warship-warning-to-navies/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-ae234c6adc-170465134&mc_cid=ae234c6adc&mc_eid=28239a3349

IMHO, the key paragraphs are these (reproduced below):

"I have toured Russian ships on several occasions (including in Sevastopol before the Russian invasion), and the surface ships produced in the 1970s and 1980s, like the Slava-class Moskva, have several weaknesses in construction and manning.

The most noticeable deficiency is a lack of the sort of combat compartmentation built into U.S. and other Western warships. Instead of multiple watertight doors that can be slammed shut when a ship is at general quarters (all hands manning their battle stations), Russian ships have little ability to divide up internally — making them far more vulnerable to what is called "progressive flooding," a euphemism for sinking.


Another key shortcoming, which surprised me, is the lack of a strong corps of mid-grade professionals in the Russian navy crews. Called chief petty officers in the U.S. Navy, these are sailors with 10-15 years of seagoing experience who lead the sailors on the deck. They are the backbone of the U.S. Navy, and the absence of such a cadre is a major problem for the Russians. (The same weakness — a lack of strong noncommissioned officers — exists in the Russian land forces, a major factor in the problems they are encountering ashore since the Feb. 24 invasion.)

I recently compared notes on the Ukraine sea war with a retired U.S. surface-warfare captain. He reminded me that when he toured a Russian cruiser, the officers wore name tags on their uniforms, while the sailors wore only numbers. This mentality — a reminder that the Russian fleet is in part composed of conscripts — reflects a lack of a coherent chain of command. That can work in peacetime operations, but quickly breaks down in combat.

In the case of the Moskva, we don't have the accurate reporting to fully evaluate the failures, but a couple of points stand out.

Most obviously, the readiness of the ship to defend itself from two incoming Ukrainian Neptune cruise missiles (now confirmed by U.S. intelligence) was flawed. Whether that stemmed from a lax "watch standing" — meaning the sailors weren't at proper battle stations — or that the ship's anti-air defenses were technologically insufficient, we may never know. In all likelihood, it was a combination of both.

Additionally, the ability of the ship to take a punch and keep itself afloat, called "damage control" in U.S Navy parlance, was obviously lacking. On an American warship, the crew is organized at battle stations into teams spread throughout the ship that are trained, equipped, and prepared to respond to fires, flooding, loss of electrical power, and other challenges. It appears the Moskva crew not only failed to blunt the incoming attack but could not control the combination of fires and flooding that followed.
...
The death of the Moskva is a vivid reminder of the need for capable anti-air weapons systems, well-honed damage control and tactical choices when operating near hostile coasts. Even as Russia seeks to learn the lessons of the sinking of its Black Sea flagship, the U.S. and its powerful allies need to as well."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 20, 2022, 09:35:26 AM
^Great post, again.

In case any of you, like me, are wondering where Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier is:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/russias-only-aircraft-carrier-cant-attack-ukraine-and-may-never-sail-again/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 20, 2022, 09:48:23 AM
Admiral Kuznetsov 1939 to the Politburo: "THE SOVIET NAVY WILL BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORCE IN HISTORY!" (His speech is so gung-ho, Stalin immediately vaults him to Central Committee membership without candidate status and promotes him to minister of all Soviet Navy.)

Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier in 2022: can't attack and may never sail again.

This outcome is both ironic and acceptable.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 20, 2022, 10:00:46 AM
Re Tripoli's great source quoting again: I knew that traditionally the Sov/Russian armed forces sucked at sergeants/chiefs (for some obvious ideological reasons -- that's how you'd get grassroot revolutions against tyrannical overlords), but their Navy doesn't even believe in watertight compartments??  :uglystupid2:

I was going to say, well, maybe that was true down to the late Soviet Era -- but that's something which could have been rectified for the Moskva during a refit, relatively easily, right?  ???

Part of my brain now wonders if they skimped on this for some doctrinal reason, along the line that their ships have always been intended to operate in a clean-sea environment: no torps, no aircraft, no incoming shells. That sounds insane, especially for a dedicated carrier killer (in theory anyway), but I could see it happening: HOW DARE YOU QUESTION SOVIET NAVY'S ABILITY TO DESTROY ENEMY BEFORE THEY SHOOT?!!? YOU MUST BE ENEMY PROPAGANDA!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 20, 2022, 10:01:16 AM
^Agreed. I'm sure Putin is fuming at his inability to get any use out of Kuznetsov too  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 20, 2022, 10:42:11 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 20, 2022, 10:00:46 AM
Re Tripoli's great source quoting again: I knew that traditionally the Sov/Russian armed forces sucked at sergeants/chiefs (for some obvious ideological reasons -- that's how you'd get grassroot revolutions against tyrannical overlords), but their Navy doesn't even believe in watertight compartments??  :uglystupid2:

I was going to say, well, maybe that was true down to the late Soviet Era -- but that's something which could have been rectified for the Moskva during a refit, relatively easily, right?  ???

Part of my brain now wonders if they skimped on this for some doctrinal reason, along the line that their ships have always been intended to operate in a clean-sea environment: no torps, no aircraft, no incoming shells. That sounds insane, especially for a dedicated carrier killer (in theory anyway), but I could see it happening: HOW DARE YOU QUESTION SOVIET NAVY'S ABILITY TO DESTROY ENEMY BEFORE THEY SHOOT?!!? YOU MUST BE ENEMY PROPAGANDA!

A large part of the reason for the lack of damage control fixtures and fittings (including WT compartments) on Soviet ships was their warfighting strategy.  The Soviets planned on conducting the first strike.  Therefore, offensive armament was emphasized at the expense of a lot of other features.  Watertight compartments add weight and cost to a ship.  Damage control takes time, effort and training.  In the Soviet model, these resources were better spent in creating more, and cheaper ships.  As they planned on making the first strike (and didn't count on having the opportunity to reload and make a second strike), things like habitability, range, and defensive armament were all secondary considerations.  Effectively, they built ships for the war they intended to fight.

In contrast, western navies (in particular the US) had to have professional crews, because we didn't know when the first strike would happen.  So the crew had to respond to a first strike, defeat it and then accomplish any assigned mission(s). That takes a professional crew.  Additionally, our ships had multiple missions, so a professional crew needed to be onboard to competently execute all those missions.  This meant we needed to have more habitability, to keep the crew happy.  We also needed more range, because of our global commitments.  This also meant we needed more habitability, as the ships would be at sea longer.  We needed multi-role ships because we didn't know exactly what type of missions they would be on.  This capability is expensive.  So our ships, instead of being disposable, needed to be survivable (that also keeps the well trained and hard to replace crew happy, so they re-enlist).  And because western nations are democratic, their sailors (and their family members) vote, which means that making habitable, capable ships is politically more important than it is in non-democratic nations.  Each of these factors led the western to develop highly capable, balanced and survivable ships, in contrast to the Soviet navy, which developed cheaper, more numerous, less capable but more offensively-oriented ships.

By way of comparison: here is an image of the USS Frank E Evans DD-754 after it collided with the HMAS Melborne in 1969.  After being cut in half, the forward section did not sink, but was towed to Manila.  See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melbourne%E2%80%93Evans_collision.  That is what watertight compartments and a well designed ship and competent damage control can do.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/19/USS_Frank_E._Evans_%28DD-754%29_post_collision.jpg/300px-USS_Frank_E._Evans_%28DD-754%29_post_collision.jpg)

{Edit: I was wrong: the bow section of the Evans sank, but the stern made it to port.  Here's the stern section:
(https://preview.redd.it/4m357wy5l7o51.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=13bc32611ef0300919634747652f30a4141916e2)

[Addendum to the Edit: If anyone is interested, the training film "I relieve you, Sir" was produced as a result of the collision.  It goes into some of the epic screw ups by the bridge crew of the Evans.  Back in the day, all junior SWOs watched it.  It can be found here: https://youtu.be/YGJKYUciJsM ]
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 20, 2022, 11:10:54 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 20, 2022, 10:00:46 AM

I was going to say, well, maybe that was true down to the late Soviet Era -- but that's something which could have been rectified for the Moskva during a refit, relatively easily, right?  ???


  Well to add a little local color to Tripoli's expositions -- you can't add much in terms of internal divisions once a ship is built.  Moreover, the Black Sea fleet seems to have been the most neglected
of all Russian forces.  There are no guided missile destroyers there.  Most of the more capable frigates were sold to India.  Of six advanced Krivaks set for that Fleet only 3 were built.  There's just not
much in the Black Sea Fleet and instead of building it up before the war, they sent ships out to the Med.  So there wasn't much there but a lot of amphibious ships even before Moskva was sunk.
So apparently nothing was planned but a walk-over at Odessa and some excursions in the Sea of Azov.  The real mystery is why they would have sent Moskva out at all -- maybe as a helicopter carrier
in bad weather?  She wasn't a threat to anything on land.  Other ships in the fleet can carry helicopters but I don't think they have hangars like Moskva did.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 20, 2022, 12:25:56 PM
Would guess that their sending the ship out came down to, "Well, fucking do something! Now!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on April 20, 2022, 01:07:04 PM
The build philosophy for Soviet / Russian ships does pretty much follow their military philosophy of throwing manpower vs technology at an issue.

The only place they seem to deviate from that is modern air assets. But on the same token they still throw Bear bombers in the sky that can be shot down by almost anything.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 20, 2022, 06:56:13 PM
the Finnish on exercise:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1516859536690356233
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 20, 2022, 08:13:50 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on April 20, 2022, 12:25:56 PM
Would guess that their sending the ship out came down to, "Well, fucking do something! Now!"

  Well, the advanced Krivaks (Krivak Vs ...kinda pushing the idea of a class), the 3500 ton guided missile frigates can shoot 8 hypersonic missiles at land targets.  Even the light frigates can shoot 2.
(so that's about 2-4 other ships they would have out there with some reason) and some big amphibious ships could at least look threatening or even fire unguided rockets at ground targets.  Moskva could
at most fire a pair of 130mm guns at ground targets -- remember the Ukrainians essentially have no navy these days.  So why even take the Moskva in range of any Ukrainian weapons at all?
Except maybe to fly some helicopters?  We know that several Russian ships (and a Turkish ship) either tried to help Moskva or picked up survivors...so there were plenty of other ships the Russians could have
sent out that might even have been able to shoot something substantial at Ukrainian ground targets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 21, 2022, 06:24:19 AM
Rumsfeldian answer: "You put to sea what you have, not what you need."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 21, 2022, 07:38:38 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on April 21, 2022, 06:24:19 AM
Rumsfeldian answer: "You put to sea what you have, not what you need."

  Yet, in theory, they could have seriously considered building up the Black Sea Fleet.  Some guided missile destroyers might have helped.  It just suggests that the whole attack on Ukraine was not
well-thought-out on any level.  Apparenly it was supposed to be a cheap, quick operation and not the resulting massive hit to Russia at all levels (eg. Sweden and Finland in NATO, economic chaos, political disaster, massive loss of credibility, new dependence on China etc. etc.).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 21, 2022, 07:48:48 AM
On a purely personal level, I'm glad to have had Tripoli confirm my suspicion that the Moskva was hyper-designed for first strike offense expecting to clear the seas of threat (no doubt in a combined arms way).

I know that was true back before Barbarossa -- Soviet ships suffered badly from having very little anti-air defense, for example, because the 'scientific' doctrine of attack expected all enemy aircraft to be destroyed on the ground with any few stragglers slaughtered in the skies by overwhelming numbers. But I didn't know for sure if that was still going on in the 80s.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on April 21, 2022, 08:16:47 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 21, 2022, 07:38:38 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on April 21, 2022, 06:24:19 AM
Rumsfeldian answer: "You put to sea what you have, not what you need."

  Yet, in theory, they could have seriously considered building up the Black Sea Fleet.  Some guided missile destroyers might have helped.  It just suggests that the whole attack on Ukraine was not
well-thought-out on any level.  Apparenly it was supposed to be a cheap, quick operation and not the resulting massive hit to Russia at all levels (eg. Sweden and Finland in NATO, economic chaos, political disaster, massive loss of credibility, new dependence on China etc. etc.).

I'd hate to be Putin's risk assessment officer at this point  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 21, 2022, 08:27:02 AM
Quote from: jamus34 on April 21, 2022, 08:16:47 AM
I'd hate to be Putin's risk assessment officer at this point  :hide:

Dude is probably contemplating tasting the business end of a 12 gauge to get out of the mess every day now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 21, 2022, 08:42:42 AM
Is there any such thing as a Soviet Risk Assessment Officer?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on April 21, 2022, 08:47:47 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 21, 2022, 08:42:42 AM
Is there any such thing as a Soviet Risk Assessment Officer?

Considering how many accidents / blunders the Russians have had over the past years I imagine it is not a highly sought after promotion and has a shelf life measured in months.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 21, 2022, 08:55:05 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 21, 2022, 08:42:42 AM
Is there any such thing as a Soviet Risk Assessment Officer?

Russian Magic 8 ball at best (best 2 out of 3 answers for "professionalism,").
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 21, 2022, 08:57:20 AM
Quote from: jamus34 on April 21, 2022, 08:47:47 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 21, 2022, 08:42:42 AM
Is there any such thing as a Soviet Risk Assessment Officer?

Considering how many accidents / blunders the Russians have had over the past years I imagine it is not a highly sought after promotion and has a shelf life measured in months.

If he is any good at his job he knows not to accept that function.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on April 21, 2022, 11:06:53 AM
Fire Rips Through Secret Russian Bureau Responsible for Designing Missiles (https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/04/21/breaking-mysterious-fire-rips-through-secret-russian-bureau-responsible-for-designing-missiles-n553632)

Accident or hhhmmmm? :-\
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 21, 2022, 11:35:19 AM
If I were in the Russian Navy in the time of war, I would want to be at sea. It beats the hell out of being conscripted into a Naval Brigade and sent to die in the cities.   #:-)   I'd want to be way out to sea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 21, 2022, 11:39:48 AM
Quote from: steve58 on April 21, 2022, 11:06:53 AM
Fire Rips Through Secret Russian Bureau Responsible for Designing Missiles (https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/04/21/breaking-mysterious-fire-rips-through-secret-russian-bureau-responsible-for-designing-missiles-n553632)

Accident or hhhmmmm? :-\

  I think the design bureau tried to shoot itself in the foot (better than being sent to jail for not shooting yourself in the foot), but instead went too far and burned the whole place down in an excess of
shoot-in-the-foot enthusiasm.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 21, 2022, 01:43:40 PM
Here's a good summation of the naval aspect of the Russian-Ukrainian war:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/the-russo-ukrainian-war-at-sea-retrospect-and-prospect/?__s=xlwaqxfp3j5d8o2leqan
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 21, 2022, 02:30:51 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 21, 2022, 11:39:48 AM
Quote from: steve58 on April 21, 2022, 11:06:53 AM
Fire Rips Through Secret Russian Bureau Responsible for Designing Missiles (https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/04/21/breaking-mysterious-fire-rips-through-secret-russian-bureau-responsible-for-designing-missiles-n553632)

Accident or hhhmmmm? :-\

  I think the design bureau tried to shoot itself in the foot (better than being sent to jail for not shooting yourself in the foot), but instead went too far and burned the whole place down in an excess of
shoot-in-the-foot enthusiasm.

If you take the news story at face value, the fire was reportedly due to "old wiring and flammable plastic cladding".  In that sense, it sounds very similar to the weapons that Russian military has been operating for the last 25 years.

In authoritarian times, it's temping to emphasize the size of your hat and not the size of your herd of cattle.  We saw that same sort of incompetence topple the Soviet Union 40 years ago.  It's not astonishing to see it continually rearing its head in Russia again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 21, 2022, 02:57:52 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on April 21, 2022, 01:43:40 PM
Here's a good summation of the naval aspect of the Russian-Ukrainian war:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/the-russo-ukrainian-war-at-sea-retrospect-and-prospect/?__s=xlwaqxfp3j5d8o2leqan

Good article, Tripoli.  I wish the article had gone into a little more detail on the strategic ramifications of naval developments for the land war in Ukraine.  But I get that the author works hard to keep his focus on naval aspects.

My take-away from the article above is that the sinking of the Moskva has more thoroughly denied Russia control of contested littoral waters, but it's unclear what advantages (aside from a more secure flank) that might provide for the Ukrainians.  As has been discussed previously, the sinking of the Moskva has significant symbolic value, but limited strategic value.

It's an interesting observation that Ukraine might at some point be able to threaten Russian assets at Sevastopol.  I assume that would be through cruise missile attacks as a first option, but have no idea what the geography allows or what sort of weapons the Ukrainians might have on hand? 

The war in Ukraine is being decided right now on the ground.  While all the media coverage is focused on Mariupol, I wish they would cover developments (if any) anywhere else in Eastern Ukraine.  I get the importance of seizing Mariupol to secure a land bridge to Sevastopol and those isolated Crimean separatist regions, but is that land bridge the only property that Russia intends to secure before declaring "objectives are met" in Ukraine and heading to the bargaining table?

I know that Ukraine doesn't want to give up a single square mile of territory, but if that's all they end up losing (for now) before declaring some sort of ceasefire, I'd have to think that's an acceptable (if not ideal) outcome for the Ukrainians.  That's especially true if they end up securing NATO membership and are able to keep most of the Western punitive measures in place for the long haul.

In the meantime, I wonder whether the Ukrainians are contemplating attacks on assets in Russian territory as a means of increasing pressure on the Russians?  I doubt it would be successful if they did so because the Russian regime doesn't care how many of its own civilians (or soldiers) die, but the Russians are playing a dangerous game with a neighbor who still has teeth.

Mostly, I wish we knew anything about the war in the East of Ukraine besides "Mariupol is holding out but bound to fall soon".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 21, 2022, 03:24:41 PM
well heres another map update from two days ago:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1516276200540459016
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 21, 2022, 03:28:55 PM
https://www.newsweek.com/oligarchs-murder-suicide-1699766

Two major Russian oligarchs and their families were found dead within 24 hours, each one apparently murdering their entire families before committing suicide.  This reeks of "suicide by two shots to the back of the head" to me.  I wonder if these two were planning on moving their assets out of Russia and the FSB caught wind of it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 21, 2022, 04:38:34 PM
Live map is showing some Ukrainian claims of Su-25 and a couple of Ka-52s and some other Russian aircraft shot down with manpads in the last 24 hours.

Plenty of Russian bombardment happening the East.

But not seeing the reports of ground combat that we were seeing a few weeks back (except in Mariuple).

Maybe the Russians are going to let their big guns do some more prep before they start their "big" attack.

The map quotes a Pentagon reporter for Foreign Policy Mag, Jack Detsch (the link is over the Pentagon on the map). He is saying Ukraine now has more tanks in country than the Russians thanks to T-72 deliveries from NATO.  That would be interesting if true.

https://liveuamap.com/en (https://liveuamap.com/en)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 21, 2022, 06:01:54 PM
Sheesh.  That is interesting on the tank count.  Thanks for the map, Star!  I feel like I need a keyboard overlay to suppress all the unit names, but that's probably what I get for not having played enough wargames in the last 30 years...

At this point, I assume that the Ukrainians have most of their National Guard mobilized.  I have no idea how well-trained or well-equipped those units are, but after 55 days, I assume they're coming up the readiness curve. 

Unit cohesion for either side is anybody's guess.  If you believed most of the media reports, the Russians would have all stopped fighting 30 days ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 21, 2022, 10:18:39 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 21, 2022, 06:01:54 PM
Sheesh.  That is interesting on the tank count. 

Very unsurprising as well. 

The number of 13k tanks that keeps being thrown about for Russian armor numbers are wildly inflated.  There are a few informative videos and articles that do a deep dive on that. 

Of that supposed 13k, 10k or more are in "reserve". 

Our 3k Abrams in reserve receive roughly 10 man hours of maintenance week to keep them going.  The Russians, due to budgetary issues, graft, corruption and general lack of control put almost no time into maintaining that reserve fleet.

Areal photos confirm that Russian reserve armor parks are filled with rusted out hulks, some that were stripped for spare parts, others that had parts stolen for black market sales.

The Russians have been reducing their reserves for years, and some feel that if those reserve tanks were in any shape to fight, they'd already have been sold off. 

So, we have no idea what percentage of their Reserves are combat capable, but most speculation is that it's a lot less than 50%, and even the ones that could fight could take weeks or longer to get into shape. 

That means that even at the start of the war, before Russia took massive losses that in actual operational armor, the Ukrainians had very close to parity with the Russian army.

It also means that at this point the Russians are likely changing their offensive plans because they flatly don't have the armor to conduct operations on a broad front any longer. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 21, 2022, 11:34:25 PM
It's just surreal.  What do you even do about an enemy like this who is vast, has access to a potentially world-ending arsenal, and is corrupt to the absolute core?  We could defeat them a thousand times over in a conventional battle but it doesn't matter at all.  They have a self secured privilege to do whatever they want as long as they save face with their own people - which they're clearly doing, as many Russians are clearly trapped in a disinformation propaganda bubble.

It seems like there's just nothing to be done but hope the winds blow against the current administration and continue hoping the next administration sucks less.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 22, 2022, 07:16:38 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 21, 2022, 11:34:25 PM
It's just surreal.  What do you even do about an enemy like this who is vast, has access to a potentially world-ending arsenal, and is corrupt to the absolute core?  We could defeat them a thousand times over in a conventional battle but it doesn't matter at all.  They have a self secured privilege to do whatever they want as long as they save face with their own people - which they're clearly doing, as many Russians are clearly trapped in a disinformation propaganda bubble.

It seems like there's just nothing to be done but hope the winds blow against the current administration and continue hoping the next administration sucks less.

  I keep thinking things along the lines of "If the Russians were smart they could do XYZ" of course if they had known what they were doing, they would not have attacked to begin with.  Anyway,
if the Russians were smart they would stop the war right now, cuz I think (and if they were smart, they would too) they are not going to be getting much more territory and they are running a lot
of risks as far as getting seriously crushed even in Ukraine...not to mention all the other stuff that needs some major adjustment like stopping the inane tantrums about NATO and getting kicked out of
international Tennis and whacko plans of taking Moldova.  Moldova!  a) pointless and b) if you can't get to Odessa, you can't get to Moldova even if you have "a regiment in Trnisnta"  If they get smashed by Ukraine, NATO is really not something they can afford to keep yakking about.  It's true that Putin is starting to declare victories here and there, but the timing for that as usual could not be worse.  He should have declared victory before he invaded and skipped the whole mess.  Or any time after that -- but now (as usual) declaring a few spotty victories is just stupid.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 22, 2022, 08:03:14 AM
You mean, even though the invaders are actually in (this war's version of) 'Stalingrad' now, and are declaring victory at last, they haven't really captured the city??  :D

So, at the cost of ruining what's left of most of his standing army and air force, losing his cap ship, pissing off the Cossacks beyond all rational comprehension, and goosing literally everyone else on his border to join NATO or die, Putin gets a dubiously controlled land route directly from the Donbas separatists republics to the Crimea (and I guess a dubiously controlled new port area). "We are the wictory!"  :bd:  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 22, 2022, 08:24:25 AM
^

Russian military commander Rustam Minnekaev now says the second phase of President Vladimir Putin's "special operation" is focused on establishing a "land corridor" from the Donbas all the way to Moldova, which would cut off the rest of Ukraine from the sea.

"One of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor to the Crimea, as well as influence the vital objects of the Ukrainian economy," Minnekaev said Friday at a meeting with the Union of Defense Industries, as reported by the Russian state-owned Interfax.
"Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population." Transnistria is a separatist region of Moldova that has so far not been officially involved in the war despite hosting a Russian military base since the 1990s.

Phoney efforts to protect Russian-speaking peoples have often foreshadowed Putin's imperial invasions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 22, 2022, 08:59:09 AM
'Of course if they knew what they were doing, the wouldn't have attacked to begin with.'

Quote of the year right there from Meng.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 22, 2022, 09:10:15 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 22, 2022, 08:03:14 AM
You mean, even though the invaders are actually in (this war's version of) 'Stalingrad' now, and are declaring victory at last, they haven't really captured the city??  :D

So, at the cost of ruining what's left of most of his standing army and air force, losing his cap ship, pissing off the Cossacks beyond all rational comprehension, and goosing literally everyone else on his border to join NATO or die, Putin gets a dubiously controlled land route directly from the Donbas separatists republics to the Crimea (and I guess a dubiously controlled new port area). "We are the wictory!"  :bd:  :hide:

  Well, you'd think they would "declare victory" some time soon, if only to work on reducing the overall damage to the Russian economy and so on.  But is there a "logical" stopping place?  Especially given that the Ukrainians are building up and the Russians are possibly at their peak effective strength?  Obviously all the HE hurled into Kharkiv for example is purely for show since the Russians are being driven back from around Kharkiv even if they finally overran what the Ukrainians left that was likely to be cut off between Izium and the LNR-DNR.  Stopping a few weeks ago or not attacking at all would have been better and stopping now would be better than stopping in a few weeks -- but can they stop themselves before things get even worse and China fronts for Russia like China does for North Korea?
Apparently they aren't going to be able to stop until the Ukrainians start pushing them back all over the place and at that point it will really be too late for them to get any kind of a deal or save any face or save their army or their regime or their economy or any credibility or keeping anyone out of NATO.  Hopefully, the Chinese will get them to stop and get a deal or two before then and right about now would be a good time for that so obviously they aren't going to stop any time soon no matter how many victories they declare.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 22, 2022, 09:25:52 AM
The Cossacks are pissed? Good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 22, 2022, 09:29:19 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 22, 2022, 09:10:15 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 22, 2022, 08:03:14 AM
You mean, even though the invaders are actually in (this war's version of) 'Stalingrad' now, and are declaring victory at last, they haven't really captured the city??  :D

So, at the cost of ruining what's left of most of his standing army and air force, losing his cap ship, pissing off the Cossacks beyond all rational comprehension, and goosing literally everyone else on his border to join NATO or die, Putin gets a dubiously controlled land route directly from the Donbas separatists republics to the Crimea (and I guess a dubiously controlled new port area). "We are the wictory!"  :bd:  :hide:

  Well, you'd think they would "declare victory" some time soon, if only to work on reducing the overall damage to the Russian economy and so on.  But is there a "logical" stopping place?  Especially given that the Ukrainians are building up and the Russians are possibly at their peak effective strength?  Obviously all the HE hurled into Kharkiv for example is purely for show since the Russians are being driven back from around Kharkiv even if they finally overran what the Ukrainians left that was likely to be cut off between Izium and the LNR-DNR.  Stopping a few weeks ago or not attacking at all would have been better and stopping now would be better than stopping in a few weeks -- but can they stop themselves before things get even worse and China fronts for Russia like China does for North Korea?
Apparently they aren't going to be able to stop until the Ukrainians start pushing them back all over the place and at that point it will really be too late for them to get any kind of a deal or save any face or save their army or their regime or their economy or any credibility or keeping anyone out of NATO.  Hopefully, the Chinese will get them to stop and get a deal or two before then and right about now would be a good time for that so obviously they aren't going to stop any time soon no matter how many victories they declare.

Victory declarations are only for internal use.  Doesn't work if you're not brainwashed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on April 22, 2022, 09:53:45 AM
Well, there's always "moral victories"

Or maybe the Russian government is giving out participation awards.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2022, 10:26:09 AM
russian participation trophy

(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0011/3403/5002/products/jzb1137_470x.jpg?v=1596216116)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 22, 2022, 10:28:15 AM
ouch
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 22, 2022, 11:03:18 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2022, 10:26:09 AM
russian participation trophy

(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0011/3403/5002/products/jzb1137_470x.jpg?v=1596216116)

In reality they get even less :

(https://atlas-content1-cdn.pixelsquid.com/assets_v2/244/2440777916229882994/jpeg-600/G03.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 22, 2022, 02:04:43 PM
Even assuming each one has a body bag is probably generous.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 22, 2022, 02:28:00 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 22, 2022, 09:10:15 AM
  Well, you'd think they would "declare victory" some time soon, if only to work on reducing the overall damage to the Russian economy and so on.  But is there a "logical" stopping place? 

For the Russians, they likely have an end point in mind.  If they can achieve it is up in the air but there is a way they can "win" and still achieve a lot of their goals in the long term. 

If they can seize and occupy at least some of the major natural gas reserves in Eastern Ukraine, that's a start.   In the south, building a land bridge, securing fresh water sources to help save Crimea from it's massive soil salinization problems and land lock Ukraine would, conceivably give Russia a pretty fair cause to claim a victory and stop. 

Achieving those goals could conceivably wreck Ukraine's economy and stifle it's growth trajectory enough that at least, they'd be unable to continue to be a "threat" to Russian regional dominance.  Maybe even with pressure and time the Russians could effect some kind of covert regime change if the Ukrainian economy falters enough.

All speculation though.  But I'd wager that these are the ideal war goals for Russia to achieve and if they do achieve them, they will end their "special operation". 

The issue of course is that the Ukrainians have something to say about it.  Every day they get stronger and the Russians get weaker.  We've already seen they now have at least some armor superiority over the Russians in numbers.  Manpower is likely also starting to tilt in favor of the Ukrainians.  Morale is totally on their side by this stage. 

The Russians would probably have to at least partly mobilize reserves in order to bring fresh troops and reserve equipment in to guarantee a victory.  They don't seem willing to do that.  They want to win on the cheap and they're stuck on that path now.  Putin can't hide the damage if he mobilizes the reserves, and it'd take months to get them in fighting shape anyway.  This isn't WWI where the European powers had turned mobilization into an art form.  As was said before, we don't even know if the Russian reserve equipment is even combat capable and how much if can ever even be made so again. 

The most dangerous thing for Russia is that they are fighting a "Special Operation" with limited commitment.  Ukraine is fighting their Great Patriotic War with every ounce of their manpower and national will.   That calculus is extremely hard to overcome.

We'll know by May 9.  I imagine whatever scenario exists by then save the complete rout of the Russian Army, Putin will declare victory at May Day. 

The problem for the Russians is that even if they're willing to quit, are the Ukrainians? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2022, 02:38:27 PM
seems the soviets are having a problem with fires suddenly.
TsNIIMash, Russian rocket and spacecraft scientific center
The College of Aerospace Engineering and Technology
and supposedly russia's biggest chemical solvents factory
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 22, 2022, 02:40:42 PM
^Beginnings of a new Russian Revolution?

If Russia pulls out of Ukraine completely then I can't see the Ukrainians invading Russia in return.

That said I can't see the Russians pulling out of Ukraine completely...maybe ever.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 22, 2022, 02:49:23 PM
^ I could never see the Ukrainians invade Russia proper.  I could see them fight hard to take back the eastern provinces and Crimea. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 22, 2022, 02:52:38 PM
Maybe some lunatic would want a 'buffer against Russia' and take Belgorod.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 22, 2022, 02:53:34 PM
Probably less pissed off Russians setting fires, and more "we're finally using this sh!t at full capacity for the first time in decades and it's only now becoming apparent that years of skims and kickbacks have reduced maintenance budgets to nil"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 22, 2022, 04:28:59 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on April 22, 2022, 02:49:23 PM
^ I could never see the Ukrainians invade Russia proper.

I guess at that moment they would lose the support they have right now and it would make Russia invoke their nuclear doctrine (home country under attack).

Plus they don't have the equipment and manpower to do that.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 22, 2022, 04:32:13 PM
When will wargames add in a "tactical ladder"?   :-"

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u9n4fo/ukrainian_soldier_shooting_rpg_from_the_ladder/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 22, 2022, 04:40:40 PM
^That would be very useful for me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2022, 05:06:20 PM
(https://mobileimages.lowes.com/productimages/c7236455-cd23-4e2e-a47c-8ad5505423fd/08175891.jpg?size=pdhism)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 22, 2022, 05:08:42 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 22, 2022, 07:26:41 PM
I've heard a couple different analysts suggest that, whatever Putin is doing, there must be some kind of internal consistency to it.  We just don't understand the fact set that he's operating with, which makes it awfully hard to predict what he might do next.  That's kinda scary when you realize he has a big nuclear arsenal.

I heard another guy, who was a former CIA Bureau Chief for Russian, say something along the lines of, "I studied Russia every day.  I had some of the most knowledgeable professionals in the world working for me.  I spoke Russian fluently, I'd lived in Russia, and I listened to Russian newscasts every day even when I returned to the US.  Over and over again, I was still astonished at 'the next thing' that Russia did.  Every time, I'd be certain that they'd astonished me so many times that nothing they did could ever surprise me again.  This time, again, I was proven wrong."

I'm not as sure as some of you guys that the Russian Army is on the verge of collapse.  It's possible, but almost anything is possible.

I do wonder whether, at some point, Ukraine starts attacking military targets in Russia with cruise missiles?  I also wonder whether, at some point, Ukrainian sympathizers in Russia don't start doing terrorist things.  The Chechens did that for years after Russia occupied Chechnya, and Chechnya is about 1/10th the size of Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 22, 2022, 07:37:49 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on April 22, 2022, 02:28:00 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 22, 2022, 09:10:15 AM
  Well, you'd think they would "declare victory" some time soon, if only to work on reducing the overall damage to the Russian economy and so on.  But is there a "logical" stopping place? 

For the Russians, they likely have an end point in mind.  If they can achieve it is up in the air but there is a way they can "win" and still achieve a lot of their goals in the long term. 

If they can seize and occupy at least some of the major natural gas reserves in Eastern Ukraine, that's a start.   In the south, building a land bridge, securing fresh water sources to help save Crimea from it's massive soil salinization problems and land lock Ukraine would, conceivably give Russia a pretty fair cause to claim a victory and stop. 

Achieving those goals could conceivably wreck Ukraine's economy and stifle it's growth trajectory enough that at least, they'd be unable to continue to be a "threat" to Russian regional dominance.  Maybe even with pressure and time the Russians could effect some kind of covert regime change if the Ukrainian economy falters enough.

All speculation though.  But I'd wager that these are the ideal war goals for Russia to achieve and if they do achieve them, they will end their "special operation". 

The issue of course is that the Ukrainians have something to say about it.  Every day they get stronger and the Russians get weaker.  We've already seen they now have at least some armor superiority over the Russians in numbers.  Manpower is likely also starting to tilt in favor of the Ukrainians.  Morale is totally on their side by this stage. 

The Russians would probably have to at least partly mobilize reserves in order to bring fresh troops and reserve equipment in to guarantee a victory.  They don't seem willing to do that.  They want to win on the cheap and they're stuck on that path now.  Putin can't hide the damage if he mobilizes the reserves, and it'd take months to get them in fighting shape anyway.  This isn't WWI where the European powers had turned mobilization into an art form.  As was said before, we don't even know if the Russian reserve equipment is even combat capable and how much if can ever even be made so again. 

The most dangerous thing for Russia is that they are fighting a "Special Operation" with limited commitment.  Ukraine is fighting their Great Patriotic War with every ounce of their manpower and national will.   That calculus is extremely hard to overcome.

We'll know by May 9.  I imagine whatever scenario exists by then save the complete rout of the Russian Army, Putin will declare victory at May Day. 

The problem for the Russians is that even if they're willing to quit, are the Ukrainians?

I don't know about there being a "logical" stopping place for the Russians. In the history of warfare over the last two centuries, national sentiment has played such a large role in almost every war. It is very hard to back out of war because to do so makes all the sacrifice up to that point worthless. Also add in the very bad blood between Ukraine and Russia now, and I think that only some sort of moral collapse and/or national exhaustion will see the end of it. My guess is that it happens on the Russian side first. But frighteningly, that breaking point might be months or a year or more away. I am thinking Germany in late 1918. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2022, 07:59:07 PM
sounds like a job for GusTeamSeal
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2022, 08:00:29 PM
the latest maps.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1516276200540459016
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 22, 2022, 08:01:46 PM
You rang?

Ukrainians have already attacked Russian targets with missiles, in the aforementioned Belgorod, etc.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2022, 08:31:36 PM
that wasnt you starting fires in sensitive locations?  :arr:

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-dL-IYkhfkmQ%2FUAxlk8l9EJI%2FAAAAAAAAC-w%2FLYHbFyBKRXw%2Fs1600%2Fnick%252Bnack.jpeg&hash=0a10afbb4fb33bee58d1ee7679bbdf4ad5659b6e)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 22, 2022, 09:31:05 PM
^Clearly Herve borrowed my favorite jacket and never brought it back - RIP
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on April 23, 2022, 05:08:16 AM
Did not know of this salvage ship, laid down in 1912!

In use to recover items from Moskva.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_salvage_ship_Kommuna (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_salvage_ship_Kommuna)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 23, 2022, 07:37:17 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 22, 2022, 07:37:49 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on April 22, 2022, 02:28:00 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 22, 2022, 09:10:15 AM
  Well, you'd think they would "declare victory" some time soon, if only to work on reducing the overall damage to the Russian economy and so on.  But is there a "logical" stopping place? 

For the Russians, they likely have an end point in mind.  If they can achieve it is up in the air but there is a way they can "win" and still achieve a lot of their goals in the long term. 

If they can seize and occupy at least some of the major natural gas reserves in Eastern Ukraine, that's a start.   In the south, building a land bridge, securing fresh water sources to help save Crimea from it's massive soil salinization problems and land lock Ukraine would, conceivably give Russia a pretty fair cause to claim a victory and stop. 

Achieving those goals could conceivably wreck Ukraine's economy and stifle it's growth trajectory enough that at least, they'd be unable to continue to be a "threat" to Russian regional dominance.  Maybe even with pressure and time the Russians could effect some kind of covert regime change if the Ukrainian economy falters enough.

All speculation though.  But I'd wager that these are the ideal war goals for Russia to achieve and if they do achieve them, they will end their "special operation". 

The issue of course is that the Ukrainians have something to say about it.  Every day they get stronger and the Russians get weaker.  We've already seen they now have at least some armor superiority over the Russians in numbers.  Manpower is likely also starting to tilt in favor of the Ukrainians.  Morale is totally on their side by this stage. 

The Russians would probably have to at least partly mobilize reserves in order to bring fresh troops and reserve equipment in to guarantee a victory.  They don't seem willing to do that.  They want to win on the cheap and they're stuck on that path now.  Putin can't hide the damage if he mobilizes the reserves, and it'd take months to get them in fighting shape anyway.  This isn't WWI where the European powers had turned mobilization into an art form.  As was said before, we don't even know if the Russian reserve equipment is even combat capable and how much if can ever even be made so again. 

The most dangerous thing for Russia is that they are fighting a "Special Operation" with limited commitment.  Ukraine is fighting their Great Patriotic War with every ounce of their manpower and national will.   That calculus is extremely hard to overcome.

We'll know by May 9.  I imagine whatever scenario exists by then save the complete rout of the Russian Army, Putin will declare victory at May Day. 

The problem for the Russians is that even if they're willing to quit, are the Ukrainians?

I don't know about there being a "logical" stopping place for the Russians. In the history of warfare over the last two centuries, national sentiment has played such a large role in almost every war. It is very hard to back out of war because to do so makes all the sacrifice up to that point worthless. Also add in the very bad blood between Ukraine and Russia now, and I think that only some sort of moral collapse and/or national exhaustion will see the end of it. My guess is that it happens on the Russian side first. But frighteningly, that breaking point might be months or a year or more away. I am thinking Germany in late 1918.

  The thing is, there are huge problems for the Russians wherever they stop.  For example, suppose they take Donbas and the whole Ukrainian Coast and Moldova -- which
seems to be their biggest plan and most gigantic stopping point at the moment.  And this wrecks Ukraine's economic future and adds Moldova and
Trsnitara to the Russian Sphere.  Bad for Ukraine and
Moldova clearly, but how good for Russia?  They will have to sell their oil and gas via China and conduct whatever is left of their other businesses via China.  India is already
working on getting out of the Russia armaments connections (since Pakistan has gone Chinese) 
Russia will be a colony of China.  Good for China and sort of
a big loss for Russia, I think.  Before that happens, some sort of regime change and pull back is pretty likely in Russia
and likely to be better for the Russians
if they get out of Ukraine and become a relatively unaggressive state and pursue their own real interests which would seem to be: getting out of Ukraine, quit having
fits about NATO and make money off all their resources.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on April 23, 2022, 09:11:44 AM
Bad news for Russia's economy and by China no less.
From Associated Press
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-global-trade-beijing-d3dbb062b20bf0a6ab49ec5f4a7ec1bb
"China's credit card processor has refused to work with banks in Russia for fear of being targeted by sanctions over its war on Ukraine, cutting off a possible alternative after Visa and Mastercard stopped serving them, according to the Russian news outlet RBC.

UnionPay's decision affects Sberbank, Russia's biggest commercial bank, and smaller institutions, RBC reported Wednesday. It cited five unidentified sources in large Russian banks."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on April 23, 2022, 12:19:39 PM
Very interesting thoughts Meng.  I need to ponder what you said but my initial reaction is your speculation makes sense. 

But to twist the plot further I found this article to be rather thought provoking.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-704877?utm_source=jpost.app.android&utm_medium=share
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 23, 2022, 12:40:26 PM
Holy crap on the salvage ship, Kommuna - originally tsarist!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 23, 2022, 02:26:49 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on April 23, 2022, 07:37:17 AM
  The thing is, there are huge problems for the Russians wherever they stop. 

That's why it's really hard to come up with a coherent, logical analysis of where this may all be heading. 

It should've been abundantly clear that the only winning move was not to play.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 23, 2022, 03:24:23 PM
NOW its a proper ostfront fight!
as far as I can tell thats a proper MG42 and not a MG3

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRC7TucWQAA2JHm?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 23, 2022, 03:34:58 PM
Another instalment in the series of Russian military blunders:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3465606-ukraine-army-destroys-enemy-command-operations-center-eliminates-two-russian-generals.html

"The Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed a command operations center of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces, eliminating two enemy generals."

Apparently this also included up to 50 staff officers.  I like to imagine this involved a Ukrainian commander right-clicking an HQ hex and chuckling while he munches some pretzels and downs a beer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 23, 2022, 05:37:43 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 23, 2022, 03:24:23 PM
NOW its a proper ostfront fight!
as far as I can tell thats a proper MG42 and not a MG3

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRC7TucWQAA2JHm?format=jpg&name=large)

It's most likely an Italian made MG42/59. They are made by Beretta.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 23, 2022, 05:50:15 PM
shhhh

dont ruin the dream
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 23, 2022, 07:13:55 PM
If this link works the dream is still alive
(https://images.app.goo.gl/e3WiqqdzHhExLFib7)
https://images.app.goo.gl/e3WiqqdzHhExLFib7
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 23, 2022, 08:49:49 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 23, 2022, 05:37:43 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 23, 2022, 03:24:23 PM
NOW its a proper ostfront fight!
as far as I can tell thats a proper MG42 and not a MG3

It's most likely an Italian made MG42/59. They are made by Beretta.

Time to unzip some fools charging in!  :D BZZZZZZZT!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 23, 2022, 08:51:48 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 23, 2022, 12:40:26 PM
Holy crap on the salvage ship, Kommuna - originally tsarist!!

I just started reading my Mom a novel by H. Rider Haggard (Child of Storm, the second in his Quatermain Zulu Trilogy), published in 1912. I can't wait to tell her that the salvage ship searching to recover the Moskva was laid down the year of this book!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 23, 2022, 09:41:46 PM
Glib question here: Did we offload our UCP stock to Ukraine or are they doing their own thing?  Does seem to kinda-sorta work well enough and gets them away from the Multicam/OCP glut. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 24, 2022, 03:58:12 AM
Russian authorities have arrested these people outside the Kremlin *for holding invisible signs.
The police noted in their report that the people were arrested because the "invisible signs" had "anti-government inscriptions."  :'(

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQ9WEjKXsAEQdgb?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 24, 2022, 08:46:15 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 24, 2022, 03:58:12 AM
Russian authorities have arrested these people outside the Kremlin *for holding invisible signs.
The police noted in their report that the people were arrested because the "invisible signs" had "anti-government inscriptions."  :'(

Unreal and frightening at the same time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on April 24, 2022, 09:39:13 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on April 24, 2022, 08:46:15 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 24, 2022, 03:58:12 AM
Russian authorities have arrested these people outside the Kremlin *for holding invisible signs.
The police noted in their report that the people were arrested because the "invisible signs" had "anti-government inscriptions."  :'(

Unreal and frightening at the same time.

*if this considered violation of RP rules please delete

Well at least every time I feel our country is going down the path of extremism / fascism / progressiveness I can always look at examples like this and elsewhere and realize it's not that bad.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 24, 2022, 10:13:41 AM
^I agree with you. Thank God my relatives got the hell out of Eastern Europe when they did.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 24, 2022, 01:55:13 PM
I hope Putin can see the invisible finger I'm giving him right now.  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 24, 2022, 08:18:35 PM
^ That's a Javelin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on April 24, 2022, 08:43:34 PM
Well, the authorities can see the Czar's invisible clothes so why can't they read invisible signs?

As to Putin making the sensible choice not to play this game, he really had no choice.  Put very simply, either Putin had to provide the Russians with government that was moving towards democracy and away from corruption with decent economic prospects or just wreck everything for the prospering Ukrainians.  There have been protests in Russia in 2021 over the poisoning of Navalny, in 2015 after the murder of Nemtsov, in 2012 after the very flawed election, and 2006-2007.  With these there was no compromise by Putin but more draconian measures put in place and opponents cowed, jailed or killed.

Putin was installed to protect Yeltsin and the oligarchs from prosecution for corruption.  Who will protect him in the same manner?  Unfortunately, he won't take the advice of the Ukrainian UN ambassador.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 24, 2022, 08:53:07 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on April 24, 2022, 08:43:34 PM
Well, the authorities can see the Czar's invisible clothes so why can't they read invisible signs?


Holy sh!t that's a good quote.   :timeout:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 25, 2022, 08:07:40 AM
Large amount of fighter aircraft activity over the low countries at the moment. A $hit ton of F-16s over Belgium and the Netherlands and a lot of American F-15s flying off the coast of Norwich.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on April 25, 2022, 09:00:43 AM
Lots of fires in Russia lately.  Currently on fire from a probable Ukrainian strike is an oil tank farm in Bryansk, Russia (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bryansk-fire-videos-show-explosions-massive-inferno-at-russian-oil-depot/ar-AAWyMPS).  Bryansk is about 250 miles northeast of the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and less than 70 miles from the Ukrainian border.

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesun.co.uk%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2022%2F04%2FNINTCHDBPICT000728495156.jpg&hash=fd2981c40f6fa2ae451549418cb0992ddd41eb77)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 25, 2022, 09:25:12 AM
Quote from: steve58 on April 25, 2022, 09:00:43 AM
Lots of fires in Russia lately.  Currently on fire from a probable Ukrainian strike is an oil tank farm in Bryansk, Russia (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bryansk-fire-videos-show-explosions-massive-inferno-at-russian-oil-depot/ar-AAWyMPS).  Bryansk is about 250 miles northeast of the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and less than 70 miles from the Ukrainian border.

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesun.co.uk%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2022%2F04%2FNINTCHDBPICT000728495156.jpg&hash=fd2981c40f6fa2ae451549418cb0992ddd41eb77)

Also a couple of train derailments in the last 48 hours in the same region of Russia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-train-derails-after-railway-track-damaged-photos-show/ar-AAWz4yS?ocid=uxbndlbing (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-train-derails-after-railway-track-damaged-photos-show/ar-AAWz4yS?ocid=uxbndlbing)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 25, 2022, 09:58:14 AM
It feels like Putin's fighting for his life right now. There's probably no way he could survive a military defeat and remain in power, invisible signs or not. So what does he do? Grab his cash and skip town? Where could HE hide and who would protect him, the Chinese? Iran or N.Korea? Who would want to spend the rest of their lives there? Maybe Cuba? That place could fall today. The more desperate he gets, the more dangerous he gets. Maybe Biden should offer him a plane ride somewhere. The South Pole would be good with me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on April 25, 2022, 10:04:09 AM
Venezuela?

In all honesty if he is able to skip with money there's a ton of third world shitholes that would probably host him.

He can join the Afganistan government when they skipped out as soon as the US announced it was pulling out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 25, 2022, 10:06:07 AM
It would have been a lot easier to shelter him before all the war crimes charges.  China isn't allies with Putin because they like him.  They are allies with him because he helps them to undermine American influence in various parts of the world.  If he's no longer the head of Russia, I wonder what use the Chinese would have for him?

Honestly, it'd be best for the whole word if the Russians themselves decide to imprison him.  But I'm not sure that they have the means for that sort of revolution.

I wonder how many war crimes charges Syria's Assad is facing today?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 10:12:24 AM
'Tis Wikipedia but it will give you a general idea:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bashar_al-Assad#War_crimes
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 10:14:38 AM
US's Austin and Blinken meet with Ukraine President Zelensky:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61214176
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 10:19:49 AM
'The weapons the West is sending to Ukraine is really making the situation worse.' -Putin

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warned-united-states-against-sending-more-arms-ukraine-2022-04-25/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on April 25, 2022, 10:25:11 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 25, 2022, 10:06:07 AM
It would have been a lot easier to shelter him before all the war crimes charges.  China isn't allies with Putin because they like him.  They are allies with him because he helps them to undermine American influence in various parts of the world.  If he's no longer the head of Russia, I wonder what use the Chinese would have for him?

Honestly, it'd be best for the whole word if the Russians themselves decide to imprison him.  But I'm not sure that they have the means for that sort of revolution.

I wonder how many war crimes charges Syria's Assad is facing today?

Maybe they won't have to imprison him.  I've seen several articles lately about him seemingly being in poor health, maybe even showing signs of Parkinson disease.  Devil's gonna get his due, maybe sooner than later...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 25, 2022, 10:38:30 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 23, 2022, 05:37:43 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 23, 2022, 03:24:23 PM
NOW its a proper ostfront fight!
as far as I can tell thats a proper MG42 and not a MG3

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRC7TucWQAA2JHm?format=jpg&name=large)

It's most likely an Italian made MG42/59. They are made by Beretta.

A good design is a good design...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 25, 2022, 12:09:20 PM
"Well, if they're gonna keep callin' us Nazis, might as well give 'em the modern 42s!"

A little more seriously, I wonder who's porting the ammo. Don't really see any in that photo. (Maybe the little guy glowering behind him who looks like he drew the short straw.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2022, 12:09:49 PM
The Railway War part 2
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/23/ukraine-belarus-railway-saboteurs-russia/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 25, 2022, 12:21:47 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 10:19:49 AM
'The weapons the West is sending to Ukraine is really making the situation worse.' -Putin

'The weapons the West is sending to Ukraine is really making the situation worse for us.' -Putin
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 25, 2022, 03:05:00 PM
A new low...Russian troops threatening to kill a captured Ukrainian soldier unless they are paid a ransom by the Ukrainian soldier's family...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-allegedly-demand-prisoner-s-mom-pay-ransom-to-stop-execution/ar-AAWzdgr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6586e2a8bf6040a1bf9c4f7eee6cf241 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-allegedly-demand-prisoner-s-mom-pay-ransom-to-stop-execution/ar-AAWzdgr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6586e2a8bf6040a1bf9c4f7eee6cf241)

So when gangsters take over the government of a country...you get Putin's Russia...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 03:06:28 PM
From Politico, Moldova on Putin's radar?

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/24/putin-invade-moldova-ukraine-00027380
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 25, 2022, 03:22:17 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 03:06:28 PM
From Politico, Moldova on Putin's radar?

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/24/putin-invade-moldova-ukraine-00027380
Ukraine is preparing to send Moldova their tractors
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 03:59:15 PM
Tractors will probably become Ukraine's greatest export when this is over. Tractors and farmers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 04:07:02 PM
...and explosions reported in...Moldova:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/25/world/ukraine-russia-war-news#explosions-hit-transnistria-a-russian-allied-region-of-ukraine-amid-fears-of-a-new-front-in-the-war
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2022, 04:10:18 PM
the tractors Ive seen are all John Deere.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on April 25, 2022, 04:43:16 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 04:07:02 PM
...and explosions reported in...Moldova:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/25/world/ukraine-russia-war-news#explosions-hit-transnistria-a-russian-allied-region-of-ukraine-amid-fears-of-a-new-front-in-the-war

I get the feeling this was an event planned way back when Putin thought that taking Ukraine was going to be a walk in the парк...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on April 25, 2022, 05:25:10 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 24, 2022, 08:53:07 PM
Holy sh!t that's a good quote.   :timeout:
Thanks, a bit of trench humour.  It captures the ridiculousness of the security forces, but I do feel a bit of shame at the same time as to what the protestors will face.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 07:37:04 PM
Nice Steve

'парк'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 25, 2022, 09:30:51 PM
Quote from: steve58 on April 25, 2022, 04:43:16 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 25, 2022, 04:07:02 PM
...and explosions reported in...Moldova:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/25/world/ukraine-russia-war-news#explosions-hit-transnistria-a-russian-allied-region-of-ukraine-amid-fears-of-a-new-front-in-the-war

I get the feeling this was an event planned way back when Putin thought that taking Ukraine was going to be a walk in the парк...

Today's ISW report (available here: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-25) claims that
"Russian forces likely conducted a false flag attack in Transnistria (Russia's illegally occupied territory in Moldova) to amplify Russian claims of anti-Russian sentiment in Moldova, but Transnistrian forces remain unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 26, 2022, 07:38:50 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2022, 04:10:18 PM
the tractors Ive seen are all John Deere.

"The weapons the West is sending to Ukraine is really making the situation worse for us." -- Putin

>:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on April 26, 2022, 08:49:46 AM
More explosions in Moldova this morning, this time targeting radio antennas that broadcast Russian programs.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/moldova-explosions-russia-next-target
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 26, 2022, 10:57:09 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 25, 2022, 03:05:00 PM
A new low...Russian troops threatening to kill a captured Ukrainian soldier unless they are paid a ransom by the Ukrainian soldier's family...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-allegedly-demand-prisoner-s-mom-pay-ransom-to-stop-execution/ar-AAWzdgr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6586e2a8bf6040a1bf9c4f7eee6cf241 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-allegedly-demand-prisoner-s-mom-pay-ransom-to-stop-execution/ar-AAWzdgr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6586e2a8bf6040a1bf9c4f7eee6cf241)

So when gangsters take over the government of a country...you get Putin's Russia...

I absolutely agree with this.
You also get the U.S. of A's position on Cuba when gangsters can effectively lobby a government.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 26, 2022, 11:33:52 AM
I would respectfully suggest that about 1/3 of our allies in the Cold War were governments run by gangsters.  They were our gangsters, mind you, but they were gangsters nevertheless.

The world has been democratizing over the last 40 years, with the dramatic exception of China.  This latest little (for the rest of us) escapade in Russia doesn't detract from the long-term trend worldwide.  But it also dispels the notion that democracy happens spontaneously and wonderfully and we don't need any vigilance to help tend that garden.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 26, 2022, 12:24:01 PM
Germany is providing more heavy equipment.

German government approves the sale of 50 flakpanzer Gepards to Ukraine. 

Also they are considering the sale of 100 Marder IFVs and 88 Leopard-1 MBTs.

In peacetime it can easily take a year or more to deploy a new type of equipment. You have to train the crew, set up parts and maintenance supply, train mechanics and handle a thousand other details. So wondering how quickly they can accelerate this for the speed of war. 

Germany also approved the training of Ukrainian soldiers on German soil on US artillery systems.

https://news.yahoo.com/german-government-greenlights-supply-gepard-145900470.html (https://news.yahoo.com/german-government-greenlights-supply-gepard-145900470.html)

When bloodletting and horror of this is all over (hopefully soon), Ukraine is going to be left with an interesting mix of various NATO and former Soviet equipment types.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 26, 2022, 12:38:16 PM
^Yes, I am hoping that whatever government is left in Ukraine when this war ends is friendly to the West. If it's not...oh boy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 26, 2022, 01:33:17 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 26, 2022, 12:24:01 PM


When bloodletting and horror of this is all over (hopefully soon), Ukraine is going to be left with an interesting mix of various NATO and former Soviet equipment types.

   Yeah, this mess is going all over...Bosnia, Tranistriata, Japan...Okay so, the Russians are threatening Japan because they did their usual naval exercises with the US Navy (that's weird), and as
usual threatening Nuclear War, and attacking the UK cuz the UK said it would be okay if Ukraine attacked Russia (I'm not sure of all the weird rules the Russians keep making up like "only we can
attack you" or else something will happen to somebody).  The "attacks" in Transitutia are especially inane...blew up their own radio station, shot a grenade and had some explosions...oh no!
   On the face of it, this sort of thing could go on forever, but the UN is looking into overriding Russia's security council veto (Ukraine after Syria, Armenia, Chechenya, Georgia, Crimea seems
a bit much even to the UN) so maybe the UN will authorize NATO to move into Ukraine or something.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 26, 2022, 01:33:58 PM
Interesting article of US -> Ukraine intel sharing. According to the article, much of it has been real-time. Apparently this included targeting info allowing the shoot-down of one of the Russian transport planes that had troops on it early in the war (IL-76 I presume).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-down-russian-plane-carrying-hundreds-of-troops/ar-AAWCex0?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e637d4e9052446bbbaa2a0407942d41c (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-down-russian-plane-carrying-hundreds-of-troops/ar-AAWCex0?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e637d4e9052446bbbaa2a0407942d41c)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 26, 2022, 02:06:47 PM
Lots of questions around the IL-76.  There have been claims but no pictures which is surprising.  OSINT has been very proliferate in finding wrecks etc.
One theory is that it was damaged and managed to limp back to a base - others are that it was shot down over Belarus.  Bottom line I am sort of in the camp that unless I see some picture evidence of a wreck it didn't happen.
Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on April 26, 2022, 02:39:39 PM
I wonder why such intel sharing with a non-Nato country is happening in this case?
Has this level of intel sharing ever taken place in any other wars, present or past? 

Why would they brag about this on the news?
Shouldn't that type of info be hidden from eyes who shouldn't be seeing it?  As in loose lips sinks ships?

I'm so confused about this war.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 26, 2022, 03:31:33 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on April 26, 2022, 02:39:39 PM

Why would they brag about this on the news?
Shouldn't that type of info be hidden from eyes who shouldn't be seeing it?  As in loose lips sinks ships?


All great questions. I have no idea what the answers are...but I can guess. I am thinking that this article is no mistake. There is some only slightly subtle messaging going on...and I guess the audience is the Russian military.

The timing comes right on the heels of Monday's statement by US Department of Defense Secretary Austin, that: "We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine."

On Monday, the US hosted a coalition of 40 nations at Ramstein Air Force Base to talk about more aid and preparing for the war in Ukraine becoming a marathon and not a sprint. Even Germany is now talking about sending heavy weapons. 

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/defense-secretary-austin-russia-ukraine-rebecca-grant (https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/defense-secretary-austin-russia-ukraine-rebecca-grant)

I think the message to the Russian military is simple; 'we are going to grind you down to nothing...get out of Ukraine while you still have some capability left...or you will become a second rate power.'   

BTW, Austin's statement is huge!!! Also, there was no backtracking on what he said. US Secretary of State Blinken agreed to it. Think about it. The US's stated goal is no longer to just help Ukraine...but it is now signed up to degrade Russia's capability. That gentlemen is a tremendous shift that almost nobody is talking about.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 26, 2022, 03:56:13 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 26, 2022, 03:31:33 PM

BTW, Austin's statement is huge!!! Also, there was no backtracking on what he said. US Secretary of State Blinken agreed to it. Think about it. The US's stated goal is no longer to just help Ukraine...but it is now signed up to degrade Russia's capability. That gentlemen is a tremendous shift that almost nobody is talking about.

  Yeah, but I sorta think things are getting even more twisted.  I think the US message is a little more subtle maybe as in:  "Dear Russia, you can take some big chunks of Ukraine, maybe, but
we will be doing our best to make you pay very heavily while expanding NATO and loading up the UN against you so this partitioning of Ukraine and Moldova will be your last adventure
and one you should be regretting already."
Moreover, I think there is a hint that Russia will eventually have to leave the Donbas and Moldova and Transitntiria and Crimea and Georgia and LNR and DNR if they ever want to get back to being a second-rate power and not just a colony of China.  Also what's kind of weird is that Russia was doing fine before Feb 24 and this whole mess is entirely their own fault.
And what happened to that metaphysical itch they claimed to be having with the Orthodox Patriarch's help?  Is Transitiria (oh and Bosnia) the only remains of that?
I also don't get what the point is in Russia's threatening Japan and the UK and nuclear war and Transitnitria and Moldova and Finland and Sweden.  Threatening thermonuclear war while
actually doing nothing more than blowing up a radio tower in Transnitria seems really inane.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 26, 2022, 04:05:41 PM
"The Russians entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 26, 2022, 04:35:29 PM
Next up in the War Against Sanity: The Sims 3 presented as evidence of a neo-nazi assassination attempt!   :idiot2:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video-games/2022/04/26/russian-assassination-sims-3/

QuoteOn Twitter, the veracity of the sting operation came into question. "I genuinely believe this is a dumb FSB officer being told to get 3 SIMs," tweeted Eliot Higgins, founder of the investigative research unit Bellingcat, which has covered Russia extensively.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on April 26, 2022, 05:00:24 PM
Putin cutting off gas to Poland and Bulgaria (https://justthenews.com/world/europe/russia-cuts-gas-poland-and-bulgaria)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 26, 2022, 06:05:02 PM
What have the Russians said about Bosnia?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 26, 2022, 06:52:10 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 26, 2022, 06:05:02 PM
What have the Russians said about Bosnia?

  They aren't going to allow the UN to extend the peacekeeping mission there: time to blow up a few radio towers!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on April 26, 2022, 07:01:31 PM
In Dune Spice Wars just released, the description for faction House Harkonnen reminds me a lot of how I would describe Russia:
"Despotic, merciless, scheming & devious"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 26, 2022, 07:33:55 PM
^Perfect.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on April 26, 2022, 07:53:19 PM
Sounds like a dog I once owned - A mix of German Shepard, Irish Setter and Doberman.
It was a picture of slavering jaws and quivering asshole
We used to say its description was

Mad and dumb will bite self
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 26, 2022, 07:58:13 PM
^You paint quite the mental vision.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 26, 2022, 10:33:19 PM
I saw video of Putin today from the Orthodox Easter Service over the weekend. He looked terrible, constantly wetting his lips with his tongue and quivering around his mouth and lips. This looks very similar to Tardive Dyskinesia, an adverse reaction to taking psychotropic meds for long periods of time. He maybe sicker than we know. Or, sly enough to fake it for some unknown reason.  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on April 27, 2022, 04:38:32 AM
I'm still not sure it's a good idea to send larger weapon systems that are not part of - or an extension of an earlier deal (such as Bayraktar drones) and not made/designed in the USSR.

Germany's decision to send Gepards seems highly politically motivated and not very practical. Ukrainian troops are unfamiliar with the vehicle, the usual connection to various NATO radar and other tracking systems is missing and munitions can't be produced locally at the moment.

The Dutch government claimed it would send Panzerhaubitze 2000's over, another advanced weapon system which the Ukrainians can't use to maximum effect without various supporting systems. Considering the poor state of the Dutch army, the army isn't enthusiastic about sending the equipment to Ukraine.

The Dutch press did pick up the potential major shift in US policy to grinding the Russian army down instead of assisting Ukraine. I'm not sure whether it's intended for a domestic US audience, but if NATO keeps poking the bear it might lash out.

It seems as if many people involved in higher decision making ignore the chance of nuclear war. I don't share their optimism and haven't shared it since the conflict began.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Rekim on April 27, 2022, 07:36:34 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on April 27, 2022, 04:38:32 AM

Germany's decision to send Gepards seems highly politically motivated and not very practical. Ukrainian troops are unfamiliar with the vehicle, the usual connection to various NATO radar and other tracking systems is missing and munitions can't be produced locally at the moment.


The North Vietnamese received similarly advanced weapon systems (ie. Migs/SAMs) from the Soviet's during the war in Vietnam. From most accounts these systems were quite effective. I know Soviet pilots and advisers were directly involved with support and even operation of these weapons, but guess what..

When this conflict began I was seriously worried about the prospect of it escalating to include EU/NATO countries. Now that nuclear war is being threatened on a near daily basis I'm not sure there is any choice.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on April 27, 2022, 08:28:40 AM
The German Gepards idea is  more a political trick for to relieve some (inner)political pressure from Kanzler Scholz.
He promised 'heavy weapons' but didn't deliver and there is resistance in his own SPD party to do so which he has  to cope with, while the oposition and part of his coalition want to force him to do it. 

For military uneducated people and journalists Gepard is a "tank" and so it must be  "heavy weapons".
for people who are knowledgeable about weapons system (including those in the Kremlin) know that it is not more of a threat than another chest full of Stingers. Maybe even less, because the Gepard gives away his position, Stinger-teams not.
also, Stingers can be used after a short training, the Gepard needs many weeks in the simulator
(which after 12 years out of service, not many (instructors) will know how to train new soldiers with those stored away sim-equipment)

maybe we send the Ukrainians to Brazil  ;) where Gepard is in regular use.

So Scholz found a strategy to make the pople happy because he will send something "tanky",  and more airdefence is always a morally good thing to sell to the public - isn't it , but without pissing of the Ivan all to much.


     
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 27, 2022, 09:55:17 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on April 27, 2022, 04:38:32 AM
I'm still not sure it's a good idea to send larger weapon systems that are not part of - or an extension of an earlier deal (such as Bayraktar drones) and not made/designed in the USSR.

Germany's decision to send Gepards seems highly politically motivated and not very practical. Ukrainian troops are unfamiliar with the vehicle, the usual connection to various NATO radar and other tracking systems is missing and munitions can't be produced locally at the moment.

The Dutch government claimed it would send Panzerhaubitze 2000's over, another advanced weapon system which the Ukrainians can't use to maximum effect without various supporting systems. Considering the poor state of the Dutch army, the army isn't enthusiastic about sending the equipment to Ukraine.

The Dutch press did pick up the potential major shift in US policy to grinding the Russian army down instead of assisting Ukraine. I'm not sure whether it's intended for a domestic US audience, but if NATO keeps poking the bear it might lash out.

It seems as if many people involved in higher decision making ignore the chance of nuclear war. I don't share their optimism and haven't shared it since the conflict began.

I agree that on the surface, it seems that sending weapon types that the Ukrainians are not familiar does not seem practical.

However, I think the coalition is girding for a long war, while also trying to leave the Ukrainian military in a good place when hostilities eventually end. So getting the Ukrainians trained on Western equipment puts them in a better place in a year.

It was also interesting that the meeting that was held on Monday at Ramstein of the 42 nations will be recurring on a monthly basis, until the conflict ends.

Another point is that in time of war, fielding of new equipment does move much, much faster. It is difficult to describe, but being in a war does focus activity tremendously.

As far as the nuclear war part...  I think the US just called Putin's bluff.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 27, 2022, 09:59:26 AM
Quote from: MikeGER on April 27, 2022, 08:28:40 AM
The German Gepards idea is  more a political trick for to relieve some (inner)political pressure from Kanzler Scholz.
He promised 'heavy weapons' but didn't deliver and there is resistance in his own SPD party to do so which he has  to cope with, while the oposition and part of his coalition want to force him to do it. 

For military uneducated people and journalists Gepard is a "tank" and so it must be  "heavy weapons".
for people who are knowledgeable about weapons system (including those in the Kremlin) know that it is not more of a threat than another chest full of Stingers. Maybe even less, because the Gepard gives away his position, Stinger-teams not.
also, Stingers can be used after a short training, the Gepard needs many weeks in the simulator
(which after 12 years out of service, not many (instructors) will know how to train new soldiers with those stored away sim-equipment)

maybe we send the Ukrainians to Brazil  ;) where Gepard is in regular use.

So Scholz found a strategy to make the pople happy because he will send something "tanky",  and more airdefence is always a morally good thing to sell to the public - isn't it , but without pissing of the Ivan all to much.
     

Isn't the German government also considering a request by Rheinmetall to sell 100 Marders and 88 Leopard-Is to Ukraine? That would be meatier than Gepards. Or is that request "dead on arrival?"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 27, 2022, 10:17:14 AM
I'm going to guess that the idea of Marders and Leopards is an internal political negotiation strategy of some kind. Arguably the Ukraine would not assault someone else's national territory with Gepards (though troops on the ground can certainly find ways to use a pair of fast-shooting cannons for assault purposes, the most famous example perhaps being the American quad halftracks in WW2 Normandy). IFVs for Panzergrenadiers, more assaulty, but less so without actual tanks to grenadier with. Leopards would be the actual tanks. (As a groggy YT video recently put it, analyzing tank warfare again in light of the current war, "Ask not what they can do to the tank; ask rather what the tank can do to them!")

So that's a set of gradient steps, especially if the Geps have SAMs instead of flak per se. These were called "flakpanzers", but that might just be generic mission-type nomenclature now? -- anyway, closer to impossible to invade Russia with anti-air missiles!

Thus perhaps the internal negotiation thinking is along the line of, "Okay, fine, we offered to send some kit which would be really helpful but also, we realize, capable of offensive action, so for the sake of diplomacy we won't do that, we'll only send the flakpanzers, okay?" Offer to send only flakpz, the press/political opposition goes AHH THAT'S A TANK! Cut back an offer that would have included tanks and IFVs, and the press/polit-opp goes, "Oh, okay that's more reasonable. Fine BUT NO TANKS!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 27, 2022, 10:35:14 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 27, 2022, 09:59:26 AM
Quote from: MikeGER on April 27, 2022, 08:28:40 AM
The German Gepards idea is  more a political trick for to relieve some (inner)political pressure from Kanzler Scholz.
He promised 'heavy weapons' but didn't deliver and there is resistance in his own SPD party to do so which he has  to cope with, while the oposition and part of his coalition want to force him to do it. 

For military uneducated people and journalists Gepard is a "tank" and so it must be  "heavy weapons".
for people who are knowledgeable about weapons system (including those in the Kremlin) know that it is not more of a threat than another chest full of Stingers. Maybe even less, because the Gepard gives away his position, Stinger-teams not.
also, Stingers can be used after a short training, the Gepard needs many weeks in the simulator
(which after 12 years out of service, not many (instructors) will know how to train new soldiers with those stored away sim-equipment)

maybe we send the Ukrainians to Brazil  ;) where Gepard is in regular use.

So Scholz found a strategy to make the pople happy because he will send something "tanky",  and more airdefence is always a morally good thing to sell to the public - isn't it , but without pissing of the Ivan all to much.
     

Isn't the German government also considering a request by Rheinmetall to sell 100 Marders and 88 Leopard-Is to Ukraine? That would be meatier than Gepards. Or is that request "dead on arrival?"

https://www.welt.de/regionales/nrw/article238380167/Rheinmetall-will-Leopard-Kampfpanzer-in-die-Ukraine-liefern.html

The Düsseldorf-based armaments group Rheinmetall has offered to deliver 88 used Leopard battle tanks to the Ukraine. This emerges from documents available to the German Press Agency. According to this, the offer also includes crew training in Germany, training for repairs, tools, spare parts, a service base and ammunition.

First, the "Welt" reported on the offer. According to information from the newspaper, approval for the delivery was applied for at the end of last week at the responsible Ministry of Economic Affairs. The federal government has also received another application from Rheinmetall to be allowed to deliver 100 Marder armored personnel carriers to Ukraine for defense against Russia. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said on Monday that a decision would be made "promptly".

According to "Welt", the armaments company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) also wants to deliver 100 self-propelled howitzers 2000. The Netherlands also wants to deliver these heavy artillery pieces, which can hit targets at a distance of 40 kilometers, to Ukraine. So far, the federal government has only promised training aid and ammunition for this.

The Leopard tanks are of the Type 1A5, which were built from the early 1960s and used by the Bundeswehr until 2003. The company wants to deliver the first copies within a few weeks. The costs are estimated at 115 million euros.

The direct delivery of tanks from Germany to Ukraine is controversial in the coalition. SPD leader Saskia Esken expressed skepticism about this on Monday. The question of direct supplies by German industry is currently out of the question because the tanks produced cannot be used directly, she said. The soldiers in Ukraine are not yet familiar with the weapon systems. "It takes long training and long training." For maintenance and repairs, spare parts "that we cannot supply" and fitters are also needed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 27, 2022, 10:40:52 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 27, 2022, 10:17:14 AM
So that's a set of gradient steps, especially if the Geps have SAMs instead of flak per se. These were called "flakpanzers", but that might just be generic mission-type nomenclature now? -- anyway, closer to impossible to invade Russia with anti-air missiles!

The Gepard can be upgraded with Stinger missiles. Many are still parked at German defense company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, which has signaled interest in refurbishing the vehicles and selling them to Ukraine.

However, one potential problem could be Switzerland, a key supplier of ammunition for the Gepard, as the country banned the export of such ammo to Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 27, 2022, 11:12:11 AM
If I understood that correctly, it's Rheinmetall which initiated the offer to send/sell (spare?) units?

That looks like RM trying to score political/promotional points while getting rid of unsold stock. ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 27, 2022, 01:14:22 PM
QuoteThe Düsseldorf-based armaments group Rheinmetall has offered to deliver 88 used Leopard battle tanks to the Ukraine.

88... someone picked that number on purpose to fuck with the soviets!

QuoteHowever, one potential problem could be Switzerland, a key supplier of ammunition for the Gepard, as the country banned the export of such ammo to Ukraine.

pretty sure its the Marder ammo that comes from Switzerland.
well fuck, its both
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-ammunition-ukraine-paper-2022-04-24/
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-tank-ammunition-ukraine-2022-04-26/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 27, 2022, 01:57:32 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 27, 2022, 01:14:22 PM
pretty sure its the Marder ammo that comes from Switzerland.
well fuck, its both
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-ammunition-ukraine-paper-2022-04-24/
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-tank-ammunition-ukraine-2022-04-26/

They make a lot of ammo for a neutral country.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 27, 2022, 02:01:54 PM
Selling to all sides is the positive essence of neutrality!

So long as any side meets the strict qualifying criteria, of course.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 27, 2022, 02:29:02 PM
Heh I really do wonder if 88 was picked on purpose.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 27, 2022, 02:41:41 PM
fwiw Germany only has 25k rounds for the Gepards.
so the solution is that Brazil has offered to send 300k rounds.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 27, 2022, 03:32:47 PM
Just a normal evening on Russian state TV :

On The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, host Vladimir Solovyov lamented the West's refusal to heed the Kremlin's warnings. "If they decide to support Ukraine—even though [Russia's Foreign Minister] Sergey Lavrov told them that this could lead to WWIII—nothing will stop them. They've decided to play it big... These are the bastards with no morals." Head of RT Margarita Simonyan added: "Personally, I think that the most realistic way is the way of World War III, based on knowing us and our leader, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, knowing how everything works around here, it's impossible—there is no chance—that we will give up."

In perhaps the most shocking declaration about a nuclear holocaust delivered on Russian television in recent months, Simonyan concluded that the idea "that everything will end with a nuclear strike, to me, is more probable than the other outcome. This is to my horror, on one hand, but on the other hand, with the understanding that it is what it is." Solovyov chimed in: "But we will go to heaven, while they will simply croak." Simonyan comforted the audiences by adding: "We're all going to die someday."

Once the conversation turned to Western arms deliveries to Ukraine and a series of fires and explosions on Russian territory, Solovyov pondered out loud: "What is preventing us from striking the territory of the United Kingdom, targeting those logistical centers where these arms are being loaded?" Andrey Sidorov, deputy dean of world politics at Moscow State University, retorted that rather than strike the U.K., Russia should target the real mastermind: America. He specified: "If we decide to strike the U.K., we should rather decide to strike the United States... Final decisions are being made not in London, but in Washington. If we want to hit the real center of the West, then we need to strike Washington."

Retired Colonel Yury Knutov. "I've been observing the American approach from its top levels of leadership towards Russia for several years now, for some reason, they believe that Russia can be choked for as long as it takes, until it surrenders, and Russia will never respond or use its nuclear weapons or its nuclear potential...
They themselves are creating the situation when there is a threat to the existence of our nation and our military doctrine prescribes that it gives us the right to use nuclear weapons."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 27, 2022, 03:34:45 PM
Lord...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 27, 2022, 04:06:53 PM
If a bit of levity isn't out of line...

I saw a pretty funny comment on Reddit that said "If the Charge of the Light Brigade happened in 2022, the entire Russian Army would be routed."   ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 27, 2022, 04:14:32 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 27, 2022, 02:29:02 PM
Heh I really do wonder if 88 was picked on purpose.

If you are going to poke the bear, you might as well make a funny while you are doing it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 27, 2022, 04:23:34 PM
Not to be that guy (too much), but if Russian nukes are like their current Army offerings, got the feeling that most of them would explode in their silos when launched.

Note: Don't want to see if this is true or not for anyone and everyone involved.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 27, 2022, 04:28:39 PM
^Good point. I feel slightly less nauseous now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 27, 2022, 05:07:19 PM
I think that Russia is acting so unpredictably/illogically right now, there's almost no purpose trying to discern any meaning in anything that Russian state media SAYS.  There's only so much point in trying to even predict what they'll do.

From where I sit, NOT opposing them more directly might be as likely to trigger WW III as opposing them more directly.

Given that accurately predicting the Russian state is impossible, I'd be A LITTLE surprised if they didn't use nukes on targets in Ukraine before they used nukes on targets in a NATO country.  If the Russians want to blow the world up, there's only so much that the rest of us can do to stop them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 27, 2022, 05:22:18 PM
Interesting article if not real revolutionary.  The byline:  By now, it's pretty clear that Ukraine has bombarding Russia as part of its defensive campaign around Kiev.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/26/fuel-and-ammo-depots-keep-blowing-up-in-russia-ukraines-ballistic-missiles-might-be-why/?sh=556d19e946c5
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on April 27, 2022, 05:33:43 PM
Here's one of my spicy takes. With how inept the Russian military has show to be does China pull a Germany and invade them? Russia has the raw resources and land China desperately wants and right now I don't think there's a country in the world that would lift a hand to help Russia. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 27, 2022, 05:59:11 PM
https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-02/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-russia-have-in-2022/#.YmmXCOfgeRM.twitter
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 27, 2022, 10:54:51 PM
Interesting overview of Russian tank's ammo storage problem. The "Jack-in-the-Box" design flaw. I hadn't heard it called that before...but it works.

Old news for anyone who has done even the most basic study of late 20th century armor, but nice to see it put out there clearly in a concise article.

"Any successful hit ... quickly ignites the ammo causing a massive explosion, and the turret is literally blown off."
The flaw means the tank's crew -- usually two men in the turret and a third driving -- are sitting ducks, said Nicholas Drummond, a defense industry analyst specializing in land warfare and a former British Army officer.
"If you don't get out within the first second, you're toast."


https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/europe/russia-tanks-blown-turrets-intl-hnk-ml/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/europe/russia-tanks-blown-turrets-intl-hnk-ml/index.html)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on April 27, 2022, 11:16:51 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 27, 2022, 04:06:53 PM
If a bit of levity isn't out of line...

I saw a pretty funny comment on Reddit that said "If the Charge of the Light Brigade happened in 2022, the entire Russian Army would be routed."   ;D

Into the valley of the shadow of dearth??!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on April 27, 2022, 11:30:17 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 26, 2022, 10:33:19 PM
I saw video of Putin today from the Orthodox Easter Service over the weekend. He looked terrible, constantly wetting his lips with his tongue and quivering around his mouth and lips. This looks very similar to Tardive Dyskinesia, an adverse reaction to taking psychotropic meds for long periods of time. He maybe sicker than we know. Or, sly enough to fake it for some unknown reason.  :idiot2:

Oh, he should be on psychotropics but TD can also be caused by anti-parkinson drugs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2022, 12:00:00 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRXV2Q2XEAMMiDT?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2022, 01:54:54 AM
https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/putin-the-planner/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on April 28, 2022, 03:36:30 AM
QuoteAnother point is that in time of war, fielding of new equipment does move much, much faster. It is difficult to describe, but being in a war does focus activity tremendously.

Agreed, but it's a shift towards maintaining Ukrainian readiness over time, not necessarily at this time. The previously delivered weapons and munitions could be used immediately after reaching the frontline by forces trained to use them between 2014 and 2022, or after a short period of training by reservists.

QuoteAs far as the nuclear war part...  I think the US just called Putin's bluff.

After WWII, the nuclear deterrent could be used to "side-step" the issue of the Allies/NATO not wanting to match the conventional might of the Soviets/Warsaw Pact but instead demobilizing and focussing on a limited number of active formations to be fleshed out with reservists or conscripts in case of war.

Unfortunately, the doctrine of making a conventional conflict less likely through a nuclear deterrent might make a nuclear conflict more likely in case the conventional capabilities of a certain side drop sharply in times of conflict.

If a leader feels there are three options (peace, conventional war and nuclear war), doesn't want peace and loses the capability to wage conventional war (at the desired intensity), only the nuclear option is on the table.

As much as I applaud the Ukrainian efforts during the war, I fear Russian losses will bring neither the Ukrainians nor the rest of the world closer to peace without changes to Russian leadership.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 28, 2022, 07:01:39 AM
Quote from: ComradeP on April 28, 2022, 03:36:30 AM

As much as I applaud the Ukrainian efforts during the war, I fear Russian losses will bring neither the Ukrainians nor the rest of the world closer to peace without changes to Russian leadership.

  It does look that way.  Even the top UN guy simply said, "The war will go on until the Russians stop."  I guess that's better than a nuclear war, but it's going to look bad for Ukraine with a lot of its
territory occupied and NATO saying "STop annoying the Russians." It's going to look even worse for the Russians in their new status as a Giant North Korea with their resources being sold through Iran, Pakistan, China and the Solomon Islands.  They are going to have to get used to being overriden by the UN and cut off from Europe and being a colony of China and so on until they pull out of everything they have occupied (which might well be a big chunk of Ukraine).  It could take 50 years for Russia become less like a giant North Korea and more like a big Iran.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 28, 2022, 11:36:47 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2022, 01:54:54 AM
https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/putin-the-planner/

I read this and it confirms the Russian state's classification as a kleptocracy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on April 28, 2022, 01:44:39 PM
I heard that another 33 billion has been approved to help aid UKR in it's war against the bear. 
I know we just recently sent 8 billion dollars in aid to them as well recently.

Just how much money does the US have to spend on this war?
I'm dying over here being taxed to death and you've got people who have been jobless since the virus broke out and they're spending money like water to fuel a war?

That's the reason why the bear has been performing like asshats in UKR.  To drag this thing as long as possible to break the banks of all the countries involved.  Think about it...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 28, 2022, 01:51:47 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on April 28, 2022, 01:44:39 PM
I heard that another 33 billion has been approved to help aid UKR in it's war against the bear. 
I know we just recently sent 8 billion dollars in aid to them as well recently.

Just how much money does the US have to spend on this war?
I'm dying over here being taxed to death and you've got people who have been jobless since the virus broke out and they're spending money like water to fuel a war?

That's the reason why the bear has been performing like asshats in UKR.  To drag this thing as long as possible to break the banks of all the countries involved.  Think about it...

This has got to be your worst take yet.  I strongly doubt that Putin is playing 9D chess wrecking his own economy and grinding down his military just so you can be taxed more.  Also, the phrasing "dying over here being taxed to death" while people are literally dying in Ukraine is particularly jaw-dropping...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 28, 2022, 02:48:21 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on April 28, 2022, 01:51:47 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on April 28, 2022, 01:44:39 PM
I heard that another 33 billion has been approved to help aid UKR in it's war against the bear. 
I know we just recently sent 8 billion dollars in aid to them as well recently.

Just how much money does the US have to spend on this war?
I'm dying over here being taxed to death and you've got people who have been jobless since the virus broke out and they're spending money like water to fuel a war?

That's the reason why the bear has been performing like asshats in UKR.  To drag this thing as long as possible to break the banks of all the countries involved.  Think about it...

This has got to be your worst take yet.  I strongly doubt that Putin is playing 9D chess wrecking his own economy and grinding down his military just so you can be taxed more.  Also, the phrasing "dying over here being taxed to death" while people are literally dying in Ukraine is particularly jaw-dropping...

  Yeah and I know it sounds crazy but 33 billion is probably a bargain -- after all its just one 636th of the US GDP (about 21 Trillion in 2021 dollars) while China is at 14 Trillion and Russia is at
1.4 Trillion ( one tenth of China's GDP) for Russia that would be a very painful chunk of their economy (which is falling fast) and for the US -- well 33 billion would barely qualify as a minor pulse in the
defense budget and money well spent in giving Russia a very hard time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on April 28, 2022, 04:30:42 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on April 28, 2022, 01:44:39 PM
I heard that another 33 billion has been approved to help aid UKR in it's war against the bear. 
I know we just recently sent 8 billion dollars in aid to them as well recently.

Just how much money does the US have to spend on this war?
I'm dying over here being taxed to death and you've got people who have been jobless since the virus broke out and they're spending money like water to fuel a war?

That's the reason why the bear has been performing like asshats in UKR.  To drag this thing as long as possible to break the banks of all the countries involved.  Think about it...

Steady young Jedi, not when victory is so close. 

Imagine if Hitler could have been stopped in a Czechoslovak 1938 proxy war, that's the opportunity we have here.  Stay the coarse.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2022, 05:09:37 PM
this is one of the people that has risen to the top of his field during this shitshow.

https://thebulletin.org/2022/04/illia-ponomarenko-ukraines-most-followed-war-journalist-is-a-dude-from-donbas/#post-heading
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 28, 2022, 05:15:12 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on April 28, 2022, 01:44:39 PM
I heard that another 33 billion has been approved to help aid UKR in it's war against the bear. 
I know we just recently sent 8 billion dollars in aid to them as well recently.

Just how much money does the US have to spend on this war?
I'm dying over here being taxed to death and you've got people who have been jobless since the virus broke out and they're spending money like water to fuel a war?

That's the reason why the bear has been performing like asshats in UKR.  To drag this thing as long as possible to break the banks of all the countries involved.  Think about it...

This isn't the place to vent these feelings, W8, no matter how reasonable or legitimate they may be for your situation. The impact of the war on the American and global economies is definitely fair game, but otherwise, please reserve the balance for other places and times.  C:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2022, 05:18:10 PM
cant we just reopen R&P and title it Thunderdome.  :bd:

(https://www.memecreator.org/static/images/memes/4780268.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2022, 05:32:42 PM
so did any of you ever think you would see a Lend Lease Bill passed in your life?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRdpyWfXIAArAY1?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 28, 2022, 05:37:58 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on April 27, 2022, 03:32:47 PM
Just a normal evening on Russian state TV :

On The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, host Vladimir Solovyov lamented the West's refusal to heed the Kremlin's warnings. "If they decide to support Ukraine—even though [Russia's Foreign Minister] Sergey Lavrov told them that this could lead to WWIII—nothing will stop them. They've decided to play it big... These are the bastards with no morals." Head of RT Margarita Simonyan added: "Personally, I think that the most realistic way is the way of World War III, based on knowing us and our leader, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, knowing how everything works around here, it's impossible—there is no chance—that we will give up."

In perhaps the most shocking declaration about a nuclear holocaust delivered on Russian television in recent months, Simonyan concluded that the idea "that everything will end with a nuclear strike, to me, is more probable than the other outcome. This is to my horror, on one hand, but on the other hand, with the understanding that it is what it is." Solovyov chimed in: "But we will go to heaven, while they will simply croak." Simonyan comforted the audiences by adding: "We're all going to die someday."

Once the conversation turned to Western arms deliveries to Ukraine and a series of fires and explosions on Russian territory, Solovyov pondered out loud: "What is preventing us from striking the territory of the United Kingdom, targeting those logistical centers where these arms are being loaded?" Andrey Sidorov, deputy dean of world politics at Moscow State University, retorted that rather than strike the U.K., Russia should target the real mastermind: America. He specified: "If we decide to strike the U.K., we should rather decide to strike the United States... Final decisions are being made not in London, but in Washington. If we want to hit the real center of the West, then we need to strike Washington."

Retired Colonel Yury Knutov. "I've been observing the American approach from its top levels of leadership towards Russia for several years now, for some reason, they believe that Russia can be choked for as long as it takes, until it surrenders, and Russia will never respond or use its nuclear weapons or its nuclear potential...
They themselves are creating the situation when there is a threat to the existence of our nation and our military doctrine prescribes that it gives us the right to use nuclear weapons."

Like something out of a Cold War dark comedy...but this is real.

The Russian State TV rhetoric to; 'nuke 'em cause we will go to heaven and they will go to hell,' reminds me of that old cr#p that the Japanese military sowed at the end of WWII. That it was OK that Japan was literally burning down around them because that way Japan would become a perfect 'shattered jewel.' Those militaristic a$$hats fought to the end and even tried to stop the Japanese Emperor from surrendering. The punchline was that after Japan did surrender, these same militarist a$$hats, quickly changed their tune, and stole everything that wasn't tied down. Japan would have become a kleptocracy run by former generals and their warehouses full of stolen goods if it wasn't for the US Occupation.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-stooges-may-nuke-us-183813392.html (https://news.yahoo.com/putin-stooges-may-nuke-us-183813392.html)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2022, 05:53:20 PM
post WW2 Germany and Japan became modern industrial powerhouses.
the same can happen in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 28, 2022, 06:03:41 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 28, 2022, 05:37:58 PM

Like something out of a Cold War dark comedy...but this is real.


It turns out The Death of Stalin was a 100% factual documentary, not a comedy.  :-"

Edit -  :2funny:

(https://i.redd.it/7oxikl3deaw81.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on April 28, 2022, 10:21:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2022, 05:53:20 PM
post WW2 Germany and Japan became modern industrial powerhouses.
the same can happen in Ukraine.

And Russia if they would stop being assholes and let us help them join the civilized democratic world.  Apparently Russians have been conditioned to think the US and west are the boogie man.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2022, 10:52:17 PM
Im kinda done hoping for a better russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 28, 2022, 10:54:46 PM
Yeah.  Much as it saddens me, we need to wait for another generation of Russians to take charge before we have any hopes.  The older generation listening to state TV news can cheer for this war and flex their vicarious muscles.  It's the younger generation that is paying the price in blood and will be telling this story for years to come.

Unless the Russians win.  Or the Russians go nuclear.  If the Russians go nuclear, everybody loses. 

I wonder, at that point, would China forsake Russia altogether?  I sure hope we don't find out.

The US defense budget is the size of the Russian economy.  Before sanctions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2022, 11:01:27 PM
defeating russia conventionally isnt even a question.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 29, 2022, 06:01:14 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 28, 2022, 10:54:46 PM

The US defense budget is the size of the Russian economy.  Before sanctions.

  The Russian GDP was 1.4 trillion in 2021 in USD.  US defense was .8 trillion in 2021 dollars.  Russian GDP for 2022 is going to be roughly the same as the US Defense budget for 2022, yes.

  About China.  The Chinese GDP is 10 times the Russian GDP.  I doubt the Chinese have any real interest in helping Russia since essentially by doing as little as possible they get a huge benefit
from Russia's self-destruction and self-isolation since China would end up being a major portal (there is already a big pipeline across Asia to China for Russian oil)
for getting Russian resources out into the world.

  Of course, at the moment, China is being hammered by COVID so we won't really see how China comes out of this for a while.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 29, 2022, 10:56:56 AM
I remember when $33 Billion was a lot of money. I think it's entirely pectinate to ask where's the money coming from, who is it going to, and what they will be doing with it? Remember Ukraine until just recently was a bottomless hole of corruption. Is this a real number or just a made-up for PR figure? What's included, what's not?  I hope someone in Washington is asking these questions. I have my doubts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 29, 2022, 12:48:42 PM
another 2 week heatmap:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRhzy94aAAA9UbN?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRhzy93aUAEY19m?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRhzy-SaUAA6yWF?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 29, 2022, 01:00:27 PM
the Ukrainians are getting very good with these little drones!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1520049235906998272
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 29, 2022, 01:23:59 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 29, 2022, 12:48:42 PM
another 2 week heatmap:



  It might be worth noting that for all that talk about Moldova and Transnitra, there are only maybe 4-5 BTGs that are anywhere near heading out that way.  The huge mass at Izyum is pretty
noticable, though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 29, 2022, 04:21:48 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRifo8DXoAA5Oqt?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 29, 2022, 09:28:00 PM
Oh, hey! "Military History Visualized" (many of us are big fans of his channel) provided an overview yesterday of the German armored-howitzer 2000 and how it might operate for the Ukrainians!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 29, 2022, 10:03:30 PM
Damn, that thing's a Beast!  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 30, 2022, 09:50:51 AM
The "Ghost of Kyiv" was a real pilot? Apparently, he has been killed in combat.

A famed Ukrainian fighter pilot nicknamed the Ghost of Kyiv has died in battle, local sources told The Times of London.

The Ghost of Kyiv first emerged when the Ukrainian government tweeted a video crediting the then-unnamed pilot with shooting down six Russian aircraft on the first day of the war. It has been claimed he went on to shoot down up to 40 Russian aircraft.

His identity has now been revealed as Major Stepan Tarabalka, 29, killed on March 13 when "overwhelming" Russian forces shot down the MiG-29 he was flying, The Times said.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-ace-known-as-the-ghost-of-kyiv-was-killed-in-combat-a-report-says/ar-AAWM5C2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c3d1ebd8e74e4e0c98a169a8a507bc1f (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-ace-known-as-the-ghost-of-kyiv-was-killed-in-combat-a-report-says/ar-AAWM5C2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c3d1ebd8e74e4e0c98a169a8a507bc1f)

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/24/1088446883/remembering-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-war-russia (https://www.npr.org/2022/03/24/1088446883/remembering-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-war-russia)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 30, 2022, 09:59:43 AM
Sobering article on the technology disparity between the Ukrainian air force and the Russians.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-pilots-are-flying-into-battle-with-old-dumb-missiles-it-s-one-reason-they-get-shot-down/ar-AAWMmJb?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e5f56cda3cd0422fb53eac47ec3f574f (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-pilots-are-flying-into-battle-with-old-dumb-missiles-it-s-one-reason-they-get-shot-down/ar-AAWMmJb?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e5f56cda3cd0422fb53eac47ec3f574f)

As a side note, I have seen an easy baker's dozen of these types of articles coming from "Forbes" since the war started. They are more in-depth and more 'technical' than the typical news-media stuff you see in USA Today, CNN or Fox. Kudos to Forbes is all I can say.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 30, 2022, 11:01:57 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 30, 2022, 09:50:51 AM
The "Ghost of Kyiv" was a real pilot? Apparently, he has been killed in combat.

A famed Ukrainian fighter pilot nicknamed the Ghost of Kyiv has died in battle, local sources told The Times of London.

The Ghost of Kyiv first emerged when the Ukrainian government tweeted a video crediting the then-unnamed pilot with shooting down six Russian aircraft on the first day of the war. It has been claimed he went on to shoot down up to 40 Russian aircraft.

His identity has now been revealed as Major Stepan Tarabalka, 29, killed on March 13 when "overwhelming" Russian forces shot down the MiG-29 he was flying, The Times said.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-ace-known-as-the-ghost-of-kyiv-was-killed-in-combat-a-report-says/ar-AAWM5C2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c3d1ebd8e74e4e0c98a169a8a507bc1f (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-ace-known-as-the-ghost-of-kyiv-was-killed-in-combat-a-report-says/ar-AAWM5C2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c3d1ebd8e74e4e0c98a169a8a507bc1f)

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/24/1088446883/remembering-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-war-russia (https://www.npr.org/2022/03/24/1088446883/remembering-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-war-russia)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 30, 2022, 11:49:24 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 30, 2022, 11:01:57 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on April 30, 2022, 09:50:51 AM
The "Ghost of Kyiv" was a real pilot? Apparently, he has been killed in combat.

A famed Ukrainian fighter pilot nicknamed the Ghost of Kyiv has died in battle, local sources told The Times of London.

The Ghost of Kyiv first emerged when the Ukrainian government tweeted a video crediting the then-unnamed pilot with shooting down six Russian aircraft on the first day of the war. It has been claimed he went on to shoot down up to 40 Russian aircraft.

His identity has now been revealed as Major Stepan Tarabalka, 29, killed on March 13 when "overwhelming" Russian forces shot down the MiG-29 he was flying, The Times said.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-ace-known-as-the-ghost-of-kyiv-was-killed-in-combat-a-report-says/ar-AAWM5C2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c3d1ebd8e74e4e0c98a169a8a507bc1f (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-ace-known-as-the-ghost-of-kyiv-was-killed-in-combat-a-report-says/ar-AAWM5C2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c3d1ebd8e74e4e0c98a169a8a507bc1f)

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/24/1088446883/remembering-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-war-russia (https://www.npr.org/2022/03/24/1088446883/remembering-ukrainian-fighter-pilot-war-russia)



Very sad to hear he didn't make it.

He was killed on March 13th, a little over two weeks into the war. If the total of 40 kills is correct, that means he was an ace of very rare skill. In history, I think maybe only Hartman gets to 40 kills in 18 days.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aerial_victories_claimed_by_Erich_Hartmann (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aerial_victories_claimed_by_Erich_Hartmann)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 30, 2022, 11:58:27 AM
he didnt get 40 kills.   ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 30, 2022, 02:39:33 PM
RIP, MAJ
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 30, 2022, 04:44:36 PM
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/45019/fighting-russia-in-the-sky-mig-29-pilots-in-depth-account-of-the-air-war-over-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 30, 2022, 09:11:49 PM
russian May Day parade prep..... what the actual fuck!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRnH2Q1WYAQ_Z3D?format=jpg&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRnH2QzXwAEenQg?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRnH2QvXwAAYCCf?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on April 30, 2022, 09:37:00 PM
Nice.

Nazis' pushed their shit in for 3ish years damn near 80 years ago so why not hump that noise until the sun burns out, right?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on April 30, 2022, 10:44:21 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 30, 2022, 09:11:49 PM
russian May Day parade prep..... what the actual fuck!

Clarification:

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1520466096662405120?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ (https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1520466096662405120?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ)

https://twitter.com/welt_empfaenger/status/1520485332172607488?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ (https://twitter.com/welt_empfaenger/status/1520485332172607488?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ)

https://twitter.com/MyInfAcc1/status/1520474972883464194?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ (https://twitter.com/MyInfAcc1/status/1520474972883464194?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on April 30, 2022, 10:46:34 PM
I thought you boys would enjoy this:


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRkhk-XXIAEv9T5?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on April 30, 2022, 11:09:00 PM
^ Awesome artwork!

@ the Twitter threads, they may be troopers of a criminal regime, but goddamn do I love to see women in uniforms.    :smitten:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 30, 2022, 11:50:33 PM
Quote from: GroggyGrognard on April 30, 2022, 10:44:21 PM
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1520466096662405120?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ (https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1520466096662405120?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ)

https://twitter.com/welt_empfaenger/status/1520485332172607488?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ (https://twitter.com/welt_empfaenger/status/1520485332172607488?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ)

https://twitter.com/MyInfAcc1/status/1520474972883464194?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ (https://twitter.com/MyInfAcc1/status/1520474972883464194?s=20&t=qda9Ut1ZwVP7sVpOBLbZEQ)

the optics are still laughable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 30, 2022, 11:54:46 PM
 <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 01, 2022, 07:54:48 AM
another map heavy update:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1520596475209736192/photo/1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 01, 2022, 10:36:38 AM
Can someone explain to me how the images of Russians dressed as Nazis is...antifascist? Am I missing something?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 01, 2022, 11:59:14 AM
so your driving behind a russian tank transporter....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1520629742914863104
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 01, 2022, 01:38:19 PM
That's why, in Russia, there's no tail-gating problems.  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 01, 2022, 01:56:49 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 01, 2022, 11:59:14 AM
so your driving behind a russian tank transporter....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1520629742914863104
There'll be tractor along shortly to tow that away.

Actually, I expected the driver to jump out and run away.  Otherwise it's off to the front you go.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 01, 2022, 03:04:49 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 01, 2022, 11:59:14 AM
so your driving behind a russian tank transporter....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1520629742914863104

"So, you chained the tank down, right?"
"...sure..."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 01, 2022, 04:15:39 PM
The Russians are even having a hard time looting Ukraine:

Russians plunder $5M farm vehicles from Ukraine -- to find they've been remotely disabled

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/01/europe/russia-farm-vehicles-ukraine-disabled-melitopol-intl/index.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on May 01, 2022, 04:40:34 PM
Alas, apparently the Ghost of Kyiv was only a myth (https://nypost.com/2022/05/01/heroic-ghost-of-kyiv-fighter-doesnt-actually-exist-ukraine-admits/)...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 01, 2022, 05:00:53 PM
 :-[
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 01, 2022, 06:02:30 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 01, 2022, 04:15:39 PM
The Russians are even having a hard time looting Ukraine:
Russians plunder $5M farm vehicles from Ukraine -- to find they've been remotely disabled

Rape, murder and other war crimes aside, these Russians are just so...inept seeming.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 01, 2022, 06:16:39 PM
QuoteThe governor of the Kursk region of #Russia claims that the "collapse" of the railway bridge is "sabotage."

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 01, 2022, 07:03:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 01, 2022, 07:54:48 AM
another map heavy update:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1520596475209736192/photo/1

  After going through a lot of that and the ISW assessments and maps, it looks to me like the Russians are advancing slowly in the center of their line while the Ukrainians are launching diversionary attacks on the northern (around Kharkiv) and western (around Kherson) flanks.  The Russians haven't been reported to be making any nuclear threats lately and they have allowed some evacuations.  Maybe they are looking at declaring victory before the Ukrainian forces get built up...which is going to lead to the strange situation of Ukraine attacking (or more likely being restrained by NATO) and there would then be a stalemate of the usual 50-year variety or in any case until Russia changes pretty radically.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sigwolf on May 01, 2022, 08:36:16 PM
Quote from: steve58 on May 01, 2022, 04:40:34 PM
Alas, apparently the Ghost of Kyiv was only a myth (https://nypost.com/2022/05/01/heroic-ghost-of-kyiv-fighter-doesnt-actually-exist-ukraine-admits/)...
As reported by the NY Post...   :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on May 02, 2022, 07:42:35 AM
Quote from: Sigwolf on May 01, 2022, 08:36:16 PM
Quote from: steve58 on May 01, 2022, 04:40:34 PM
Alas, apparently the Ghost of Kyiv was only a myth (https://nypost.com/2022/05/01/heroic-ghost-of-kyiv-fighter-doesnt-actually-exist-ukraine-admits/)...
As reported by the NY Post...   :2funny:

If you don't feel you can trust the NYP, try doing an internet search and you'll find the report pretty much on every news site.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 02, 2022, 11:00:36 AM
Quote from: steve58 on May 02, 2022, 07:42:35 AM
Quote from: Sigwolf on May 01, 2022, 08:36:16 PM
Quote from: steve58 on May 01, 2022, 04:40:34 PM
Alas, apparently the Ghost of Kyiv was only a myth (https://nypost.com/2022/05/01/heroic-ghost-of-kyiv-fighter-doesnt-actually-exist-ukraine-admits/)...
As reported by the NY Post...   :2funny:

If you don't feel you can trust the NYP, try doing an internet search and you'll find the report pretty much on every news site.

The Washington Post's version, published by MSN: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-ghost-of-kyiv-was-never-alive-ukrainian-air-force-says/ar-AAWOXMj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=a64dd006c3b44559adae4626e725f49f
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 02, 2022, 12:27:59 PM
Somebody asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to explain why Ukraine needs denazification when the prime minister is Jewish : he claimed that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler "had Jewish blood" and that Jews as a rule are among the worst antisemites  :uglystupid2: :hide:.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/yad-vashem-chief-accuses-lavrov-of-libelously-blaming-jews-for-holocaust/
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1521136329987342337?cxt=HHwWgoCyvdnblJwqAAAA
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 02, 2022, 01:07:13 PM
The 10th Russian General... Ukraine hits a command post near Izyum.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1603798/putin-ukraine-tenth-russian-general-killed-invasion-Izyum-kharkiv-andrei-simonov (https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1603798/putin-ukraine-tenth-russian-general-killed-invasion-Izyum-kharkiv-andrei-simonov)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on May 02, 2022, 01:13:05 PM
...and the retraction...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 02, 2022, 01:20:45 PM
Not all of the Russian looters are incompetent.   :hide:

Lieutenant Yevgeny Kovalenko, a recon platoon leader of 656th Regiment of the Russian Federal Guard Service is a champ!!

He sent home over 1000 lbs. of stolen goods to his loving wife, who proceeded to boast about her husband's prowess on social media.

His haul included speakers, tools, a table and a tent. He sent the items back to his hometown Rubtsovsk in Siberia.

https://nypost.com/2022/04/26/russian-champion-looter-reportedly-sent-1k-pounds-of-goods-home/ (https://nypost.com/2022/04/26/russian-champion-looter-reportedly-sent-1k-pounds-of-goods-home/)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 02, 2022, 05:47:52 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on May 02, 2022, 12:27:59 PM
Somebody asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to explain why Ukraine needs denazification when the prime minister is Jewish : he claimed that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler "had Jewish blood" and that Jews as a rule are among the worst antisemites  :uglystupid2: :hide:.

"So...why'd you invade Ukraine?"
Putin: "The JEEEEWWWSSS!!!"

Crazy damn world we live in.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 02, 2022, 10:36:05 PM
ya ever notice that theres been no evidence of russias use of any kind of active protection on its tanks?
even on T-90s theres been nothing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: 88mmkwk on May 03, 2022, 12:21:54 AM
Interesting assessment of Turkey's role in the Ukraine conflict with Russia...  I harken back to when Turkey decided to fly the bird at the West and negotiated a deal with Russia to get S-400's instead of following through with their F-35 partner program and acquisition agreement, thereby causing them to lose access to supply parts for and buy F-35's.  With the recent less-than-steller showing of Russian military hardware vs. western systems, I wonder if Ankara might be having some "buyer's regret" right now as they watch events unfold.  Russian troop training and corruption can always be a consideration for poor military system performance, but I gotta believe "ooopsss" must be at least occasionally a thought for the Turk leadership these days....

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 03, 2022, 12:37:58 AM
I think that a lot of russian kit can be very good when used by well trained and motivated people.
not their tanks, but a lot of other stuff.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on May 03, 2022, 04:44:53 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on May 02, 2022, 12:27:59 PM
Somebody asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to explain why Ukraine needs denazification when the prime minister is Jewish : he claimed that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler "had Jewish blood" and that Jews as a rule are among the worst antisemites  :uglystupid2: :hide:.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/yad-vashem-chief-accuses-lavrov-of-libelously-blaming-jews-for-holocaust/
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1521136329987342337?cxt=HHwWgoCyvdnblJwqAAAA

Israel not too happy with the Lavrov statement. Hopefully makes them a little less neutral. Must be hard to appear to justify anything when you really have no reason to invade.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on May 03, 2022, 04:54:34 AM
Quote from: 88mmkwk on May 03, 2022, 12:21:54 AM
Interesting assessment of Turkey's role in the Ukraine conflict with Russia...  I harken back to when Turkey decided to fly the bird at the West and negotiated a deal with Russia to get S-400's instead of following through with their F-35 partner program and acquisition agreement, thereby causing them to lose access to supply parts for and buy F-35's.  With the recent less-than-steller showing of Russian military hardware vs. western systems, I wonder if Ankara might be having some "buyer's regret" right now as they watch events unfold.  Russian troop training and corruption can always be a consideration for poor military system performance, but I gotta believe "ooopsss" must be at least occasionally a thought for the Turk leadership these days....


A Turkey-Russia Naval  war is, I believe, not even remotely possible unless circumstances dramatically change. if they change to that extent we are all in big trouble!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 03, 2022, 05:32:21 AM
Quote from: 88mmkwk on May 03, 2022, 12:21:54 AM
Interesting assessment of Turkey's role in the Ukraine conflict with Russia...  I harken back to when Turkey decided to fly the bird at the West and negotiated a deal with Russia to get S-400's instead of following through with their F-35 partner program and acquisition agreement, thereby causing them to lose access to supply parts for and buy F-35's.  With the recent less-than-steller showing of Russian military hardware vs. western systems, I wonder if Ankara might be having some "buyer's regret" right now as they watch events unfold.  Russian troop training and corruption can always be a consideration for poor military system performance, but I gotta believe "ooopsss" must be at least occasionally a thought for the Turk leadership these days....


  Yep, and Pakistan is probably happy they have been shifting over to Chinese gear while poor India is packed with used Russian stuff.  And China isn't even buying Russian oil at discount:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-relieved-as-china-appears-to-heed-warnings-on-russia/ar-AAWRuM8?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=d42e103759dc405c94293c145a9c615b
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 03, 2022, 06:35:27 AM
^That last bit is some very good news.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 03, 2022, 08:21:19 AM
Quote from: planetbrain on May 03, 2022, 04:44:53 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on May 02, 2022, 12:27:59 PM
Somebody asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to explain why Ukraine needs denazification when the prime minister is Jewish : he claimed that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler "had Jewish blood" and that Jews as a rule are among the worst antisemites  :uglystupid2: :hide:.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/yad-vashem-chief-accuses-lavrov-of-libelously-blaming-jews-for-holocaust/
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1521136329987342337?cxt=HHwWgoCyvdnblJwqAAAA

Israel not too happy with the Lavrov statement. Hopefully makes them a little less neutral.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-705747

Russian Foreign Ministry says that Israel "supports the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv and that Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid saying "The Jews did not murder themselves in the Holocaust is anti-historical."   :pullhair:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 03, 2022, 08:37:24 AM
This is a new level of idiocy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 03, 2022, 08:59:43 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 03, 2022, 08:37:24 AM
This is a new level of idiocy.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/vladimir-putin-rewriting-russias-history-books-flna2d11669160
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/vladimir-putins-rewriting-of-history-draws-on-a-long-tradition-of-soviet-myth-making-180979724/

When you rewrite history many things become anti-historical.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 03, 2022, 09:44:19 AM
I do wonder how much of this stuff is accurate.

For the record, in WW II at least, the Germans basically just needed to shoot at an enemy plane and have a fellow aviator say "He hit it!" to get credit for a kill.  I have no idea whether anybody ever did a historical analysis of the number of kills claimed by German pilots versus the number of planes ever deployed in a theater, but the two numbers had to have been close (with the "confirmed kill" count leading by a nose).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Rekim on May 03, 2022, 10:16:41 AM
Sorry, but that is not correct

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_and_overclaiming_of_aerial_victories_during_World_War_II

The Luftwaffe's aerial victory confirmation procedure was based on directive 55270/41 named "Confirmation of aerial victories, destructions and sinking of ships" (German: Anerkennung von Abschüssen, Zerstörungen und Schiffsvernichtung) and was issued by the Oberbefehlshaber der Luftwaffe (Luftwaffe high command). This directive was first issued in 1939 and was updated several times during World War II.[2]

In theory the German approval process for the confirmation of aerial victories was very stringent and required a witness.[3] The final destruction or explosion of an enemy aircraft in the air, or bail-out of the pilot from the aircraft, had to be observed on gun-camera film or by at least one other human witness. The witness could be the German pilot's wingman, another in the squadron, or an observer on the ground. If a pilot reported shooting down an aircraft without this confirmation it was considered only a "probable" and did not count in the victory scoring process.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 03, 2022, 11:47:34 AM
Yup.  The key words in the passage you cited are, "in theory..."  Based on the handful of biographical accounts that I've read, it was the "at least one human witness" clause that was the weak link in the verified kill totals for the Luftwaffe.  There were very practical incentives for pilots in general and wingmen in particular to exaggerate each other's kill totals.

To your point, I exaggerated the lack of rigor in the German kill verification system.  If you read the rest of the article, you see that the Germans weren't alone in inflating kill totals, but there is a lengthy list of inflated kill totals involving the Luftwaffe.

The most detailed treatment of this issue that I can remember was in a great book, A Higher Call, by Adam Makos, available at https://www.amazon.com/Higher-Call-Incredible-Chivalry-War-Torn/dp/0425255735 (https://www.amazon.com/Higher-Call-Incredible-Chivalry-War-Torn/dp/0425255735).  I ran across similar treatment looking at some of Joachim Marseille's career, specifically including his "17 kills in one day" incident.  Taking nothing away from Marseille as a pilot or a brave human, I just think his kill totals were inflated.

I know that, for American pilots, they were rotated home pretty quickly after gaining combat experience to train new combat crews.  Part of this was a function of the growth curve in US Aircraft between 1942 and 1944--the USAF simply needed more trainers and (unlike the Japanese, for example) made it a very high priority to embed trainers with combat experience in their pilot training functions.  Part of this was a function of the fact that the Americans weren't fighting for their lives to keep enemy bombers out of the sky, so they had the luxury of making long-term training investments.  One result was to put a much lower ceiling on American pilot's kill totals.

Judging by the Wikipedia link you provided, it's the American bomber crews who vastly inflated their kill totals...   ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 03, 2022, 01:26:49 PM
Summarizing the conclusion sections at the end of Bergstrom's Black Cross/Red Star series, he estimates that is Russia during '41 and '42, the Germans overclaimed air to air kills at slightly less than a 2:1 rate while the Soviets overclaimed kills at about a 3:1 rate.  He used German losses according to german records and compared them to Soviet losses from soviet records. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 03, 2022, 02:23:32 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on May 03, 2022, 01:26:49 PM
Summarizing the conclusion sections at the end of Bergstrom's Black Cross/Red Star series...

...and just like that, I have a new series to buy! -- and possibly perhaps read someday!  :D :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 03, 2022, 02:26:24 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on May 03, 2022, 01:26:49 PM
Summarizing the conclusion sections at the end of Bergstrom's Black Cross/Red Star series, he estimates that is Russia during '41 and '42, the Germans overclaimed air to air kills at slightly less than a 2:1 rate while the Soviets overclaimed kills at about a 3:1 rate.  He used German losses according to german records and compared them to Soviet losses from soviet records.

Yeah, that aligns with what Wikipedia tells us.  I think the German exaggeration rate expanded dramatically in the last year or two of the war, probably for reasons we can all imagine.  All sides exaggerate their kill totals, but Truth-seeking is not a virtue that's celebrated in authoritarian regimes that are faring poorly...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 03, 2022, 03:30:11 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR2OaNBXoAcTp9y?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 03, 2022, 07:20:26 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 03, 2022, 02:23:32 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on May 03, 2022, 01:26:49 PM
Summarizing the conclusion sections at the end of Bergstrom's Black Cross/Red Star series...

...and just like that, I have a new series to buy! -- and possibly perhaps read someday!  :D :hide:

Lucky to stumble across Mr. Bergstrom's Operation Barbarossa in a used book store lately. Beautiful book.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 04, 2022, 07:22:21 AM
So, keeping in mind the qualification that a BTG may not be up to full strength compared to any other BTGs, and that any total -- especially large ones -- is proportionately likely to involve reserves not front-line BTGs...

...that map looks like the push is for acquiring and consolidating Donbas breakaway region westward hinterlands (expanding the breakaway 'republics' westward), and NOT for pushing along the south coast toward Romania to cut off Ukraine from all coastal access. Or not yet; if that's the plan, gaining territory west of the breakaway region capitals comes first.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 04, 2022, 07:47:48 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 04, 2022, 07:22:21 AM
So, keeping in mind the qualification that a BTG may not be up to full strength compared to any other BTGs, and that any total -- especially large ones -- is proportionately likely to involve reserves not front-line BTGs...

...that map looks like the push is for acquiring and consolidating Donbas breakaway region westward hinterlands (expanding the breakaway 'republics' westward), and NOT for pushing along the south coast toward Romania to cut off Ukraine from all coastal access. Or not yet; if that's the plan, gaining territory west of the breakaway region capitals comes first.

  Yep.  Looks like 81 or so in the center (Donbas) and 12 or so on the flanks...seems like the main effort is in the Donbas, so the Russians might just declare victory there and try to end the war like
that and be very upset if Ukraine starts pushing them back.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 04, 2022, 10:28:54 AM
Belarus has begun large scale "readiness" drills.

Maybe just a head fake to keep Ukraine on the defensive in the north, or Putin has called in his chips, and the Belarussians have to jump in. Is this timed to synch with the rumors of a May 9th declaration of war on Ukraine? 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-ally-belarus-launches-military-quick-response-drills/ar-AAWUWYV?ocid=uxbndlbing (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-ally-belarus-launches-military-quick-response-drills/ar-AAWUWYV?ocid=uxbndlbing)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 04, 2022, 10:48:23 AM
^If this is real hopefully they will perform just as well as their Russian masters.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 04, 2022, 11:15:29 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 04, 2022, 10:48:23 AM
^If this is real hopefully they will perform just as well as their Russian masters.

With all the intel available from the West to Ukraine, it won't be a surprise attack at all.

It would be a dangerous precedent for Russia to set, pulling an ally into the fight.

I wonder what Poland would think of this all?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 04, 2022, 12:21:50 PM
'39 Poland, or '22 Poland?  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 04, 2022, 12:33:50 PM
1920 Poland would probably be the best answer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 04, 2022, 01:08:44 PM
^^ Well played!  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 04, 2022, 01:37:29 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 04, 2022, 10:28:54 AM
Belarus has begun large scale "readiness" drills.


  They might do better brushing up on their Black Magic (or is that some kind of perfume?)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-media-accuse-ukraine-of-using-black-magic-as-invasion-falters/ar-AAWVkD6?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=ed41cd4ca26e4e3fb5c22d85a3bd1b05
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 04, 2022, 02:29:42 PM
^I know I'll regret saying this but I have now seen it all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 04, 2022, 02:50:46 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 04, 2022, 02:29:42 PM
^I know I'll regret saying this but I have now seen it all.

This might explain the latest Russian 'news' items.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, noted on Twitter that a haul of cocaine had been confiscated in Estonia last month while en route to Russia. "It seems the cocaine shortage has forced employees of the Foreign Ministry to switch to something heavier," he said.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 04, 2022, 04:23:30 PM
^I bet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 04, 2022, 07:40:19 PM
This is new - from Politico, in reference to Belarus:

'The drills come ahead of Russia's May 9 "Victory Day" where some U.S. and Western officials suspect VLADIMIR PUTIN might formally declare war on Ukraine — potentially dragging Belarus into the fight.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 04, 2022, 07:53:08 PM
...and Ukraine makes clear they are not afraid of Belarus:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-is-ready-if-belarus-joins-russian-war-effort-2022-05-04/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 04, 2022, 08:18:39 PM
Can certainly see Belarus seeing the smoke Ukraine can put down and the troops being, "shit, I got syphilis; gotta go home."

(Pro tip: get your ally to join you before you invade or after you've shown success with your invasion so far as it's gonna be hard to sell that bad boy to the folks if it looks like you're backing the loser in the fight)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 04, 2022, 09:58:47 PM
It's not Black Magic the Ukrainians are using, it's The Force. Zelensky's got several out-of-work Jedi Knights on his payroll. And Wookie's.  :P
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 05, 2022, 04:03:40 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 04, 2022, 07:40:19 PM

'The drills come ahead of Russia's May 9 "Victory Day"

Do they also celebrate the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact on August 23 ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 05, 2022, 06:23:39 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on May 04, 2022, 08:18:39 PM
Can certainly see Belarus seeing the smoke Ukraine can put down and the troops being, "shit, I got syphilis; gotta go home."

(Pro tip: get your ally to join you before you invade or after you've shown success with your invasion so far as it's gonna be hard to sell that bad boy to the folks if it looks like you're backing the loser in the fight)

  But who knows what kind of information they've been getting?  Though the Arskobanis from Upper Georgia were pretty shocked when they ended up in the Russian army and their Russian commander hid
so much that the "Spetznatz" had to come and beat him up.  "Ironically" -- (or something along those lines) -- the commander said he was hidding because he was afraid somebody was going to come and beat him up.

Source:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-will-lose-say-panicked-soldiers-as-they-refuse-to-fight-ukraine/ar-AAWU63F?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=44e10b146bb0495980c64cb9cb28006e
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 05, 2022, 08:22:51 AM
NYT says US is providing Ukraine intel that helps them target Russian generals...err....headquarters. ;)

This story has been percolating a bit on less well known news outlets for a day or so, but the NYT piece is the first time I have seen much detail.

I think this quote nails why this information is being put out there:
"Clearly, we want the Russians to know on some level that we are helping the Ukrainians to this extent, and we will continue to do so," said Evelyn Farkas, the former top Defense Department official for Russia and Ukraine in the Obama administration and currently the executive director of the McCain Institute. "We will give them everything they need to win, and we're not afraid of Vladimir Putin's reaction to that. We won't be self-deterred."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-intelligence-is-helping-ukraine-kill-russian-generals-officials-say/ar-AAWVNM0?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5fc49da26b3e452191769eeb912e9d49 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-intelligence-is-helping-ukraine-kill-russian-generals-officials-say/ar-AAWVNM0?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5fc49da26b3e452191769eeb912e9d49)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 05, 2022, 09:25:25 AM
Wow, that is a ballsy quote in light of all the nuclear saber rattling.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 05, 2022, 10:31:59 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 05, 2022, 09:25:25 AM
Wow, that is a ballsy quote in light of all the nuclear saber rattling.

  Well, they have threatened to blow up Ireland (they aren't in NATO) and the UK (starts with UK like Ukraine, right?).  I guess the USA gets to steadily kill off Russian generals cuz we're so nice about it, or something. or USA doesn't come out right in Cyrillic?  Maybe it spells something obscene in Russian like backwards R-ice-fur treatment?  The.  Worst.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 05, 2022, 10:39:35 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 05, 2022, 09:25:25 AM
Wow, that is a ballsy quote in light of all the nuclear saber rattling.

I think the "worm turned" as they say when the US Defense Secretary said the goal was not just to help Ukraine defend itself, but also to destroy the Russian capability to conduct this type of war in the future.

I also think that news like this helps promote the idea in the Russian general's heads that following Putin is going to get them killed, and maybe its time for Vlad to retire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 05, 2022, 11:27:59 AM
I think this is an incredibly dangerous development. Doing it on the QT is one thing but actually openly admitting the U.S. is targeting Russian generals, and then bragging about it, can only lead to a required retaliation by Putin. Better to have kept quiet about it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 05, 2022, 11:42:46 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on May 05, 2022, 11:27:59 AM
I think this is an incredibly dangerous development. Doing it on the QT is one thing but actually openly admitting the U.S. is targeting Russian generals, and then bragging about it, can only lead to a required retaliation by Putin. Better to have kept quiet about it.

  I think the audience is not just the Russians, but the rest of NATO.  It's important that they feel the US will back them up all the way to Finland if need be.  And when Putin sees that sort of thing, he will
tend to reduce his aims and get what he can in the Donbas-- and nothing more, hopefully.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 05, 2022, 12:22:49 PM
Or he loses his temper in another flash of insanity and we all die in a nuclear fire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 05, 2022, 12:23:15 PM
Case closed.

Israeli Prime Minister Bennett's office says Russian President Putin apologized for Foreign Minister Lavrov's comments.  Bennett accepted Putin's apology "and thanked him for clarifying the President's attitude towards the Jewish people and the memory of the Holocaust."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-61339749
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 05, 2022, 12:53:30 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on May 05, 2022, 11:27:59 AM
I think this is an incredibly dangerous development. Doing it on the QT is one thing but actually openly admitting the U.S. is targeting Russian generals, and then bragging about it, can only lead to a required retaliation by Putin. Better to have kept quiet about it.

It is definitely an exaggeration to say they are "bragging" about it. Quietly letting it be known is the way I would put it.

From an official point of view, I think the US and NATO are covering the diplomatic speak. There is no official acknowledgement of this that I am aware of...just the typical unnamed sources that could always be denied...speaking to reporters anonymously. I think the only "official" thing I have seen is an acknowledgement at the NATO level that NATO is providing intel to Ukraine...but they don't say "targeting." Even then, they would not say they are providing information on generals, but "headquarters."

However, assuming the intel provided is electronic, signal intercepts and imagery, from a practical point of view, there is very little difference between "providing intel" and providing "targeting help" (as the NYT article put it).

BTW, if anyone out there in wargaming land hasn't been exposed to modern capabilities, I highly recommend the PC game, "Command Modern Operations" published by Slitherine. The game is "eye-opening."

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 05, 2022, 12:57:12 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 05, 2022, 12:22:49 PM
Or he loses his temper in another flash of insanity and we all die in a nuclear fire.

  I guess, but consider this:  he must have been pretty much flashing with anger and insanity when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.  It seems possible that we have already seen the worst, at least
in terms of purely Putin-centric Putin-esque anger.  Maybe the Donbas is all he really wanted and the stuff about Kyiv was just to make getting a big chunk of Ukraine quicker and easier.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 05, 2022, 01:01:53 PM
I hope you're right.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 05, 2022, 02:29:10 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 05, 2022, 12:22:49 PM
Or he loses his temper in another flash of insanity and we all die in a nuclear fire.

More likely to freeze to death in a nuclear winter.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 05, 2022, 04:20:27 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 05, 2022, 08:22:51 AM
NYT says US is providing Ukraine intel that helps them target Russian generals...err....headquarters. ;)

This story has been percolating a bit on less well known news outlets for a day or so, but the NYT piece is the first time I have seen much detail.

And....the official denial

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5013851/pentagon-denies-providing-intelligence-ukraine-russian-generals (https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5013851/pentagon-denies-providing-intelligence-ukraine-russian-generals)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 05, 2022, 04:24:47 PM
Quote from: Windigo on May 05, 2022, 02:29:10 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 05, 2022, 12:22:49 PM
Or he loses his temper in another flash of insanity and we all die in a nuclear fire.

More likely to freeze to death in a nuclear winter.
I'd think it would be from radiation sickness.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 05, 2022, 04:26:18 PM
Why not all of the above?   :dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 05, 2022, 04:45:05 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on May 05, 2022, 04:26:18 PM
Why not all of the above?   :dreamer:
Might as well add old age then  ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 05, 2022, 04:45:34 PM
Somehow, the worse part will be the apocalypse tourists who, somehow, vlog their "adventures," and whatnot.

"Unlike in Eastern Europe, where there is a strong "cannibal cult," kind of vibe going on, in the remnants of the U.S.'s East Coast, one gets a sense of family as you really have to pull together as a group to combat the now sentient kudzu which threatens to wash over village walls like a vengeful green tide.  If you want to know more, like, subscribe and follow us as we try and hit all the "hot," spots to go before you die in your own lung juices or get eaten by the neighbor or the neighbor's dog."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 05, 2022, 05:09:51 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on May 05, 2022, 12:23:15 PM
Case closed.

Israeli Prime Minister Bennett's office says Russian President Putin apologized for Foreign Minister Lavrov's comments.  Bennett accepted Putin's apology "and thanked him for clarifying the President's attitude towards the Jewish people and the memory of the Holocaust."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-61339749

1. this is the only apology that fuckstick has given to anyone.
2. because he doesnt want syria  to get even more destabilized from IDF action.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 05, 2022, 05:11:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 05, 2022, 05:09:51 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on May 05, 2022, 12:23:15 PM
Case closed.

Israeli Prime Minister Bennett's office says Russian President Putin apologized for Foreign Minister Lavrov's comments.  Bennett accepted Putin's apology "and thanked him for clarifying the President's attitude towards the Jewish people and the memory of the Holocaust."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-61339749

1. this is the only apology that fuckstick has given to anyone.
2. because he doesnt want syria  to get even more destabilized from IDF action.

   So true.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on May 05, 2022, 08:44:54 PM
I second the CMO suggestion from above.  It's like a living encyclopedia sandbox of modern war stuff.  There's even some user made scenarios for Ukraine in the steam workshop.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 05, 2022, 08:45:46 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 05, 2022, 05:09:51 PM
1. this is the only apology that fuckstick has given to anyone.
2. because he doesnt want syria  to get even more destabilized from IDF action.

Also because Israel is basically Batman, and the Bat doesn't recognize international jurisdiction.  ^-^

(At least, that's my head-canon.)

(Not that Israel is basically Batman. That's one hundred percent fact.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on May 05, 2022, 08:58:04 PM
I honestly don't give 2 shits about upsetting Russia with intel on generals location or Moskva location.  It's quite obvious our jstars and awacs are airborne every day doing surveillance and our satellites are watching everything.  The Russians already know this and are fools if they don't.  I thinks it's message that we don't even need to have boots on the ground and we can affect this war in a decisive way. 

Also, I seem to remember the Russian fsb paying bounties to the taliban for killed American soldiers....so dead Russian generals is payback....and it's a bitch sometimes.

I do wish I built a nuclear proof bunker in my back yard instead of a swimming pool.  But 5 years ago, I'd never suspect we'd be here.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 05, 2022, 09:54:07 PM
I believe the bounty on U.S. Soldiers story was totally de-bunked. I also saw Gen. Milley was on Capitol Hill last week telling everyone who would listen how U.S. Intelligence was assisting the Ukraine targeting Russian assets. Maybe this story, as so many others, was not true either. It's hard to tell. Putin maybe crazy but he's not so crazy that he thinks he can afford to not hit back when his reputation's at stake.

Here in Fla. a nuclear war would undoubtedly result in the damned Iguanas running around everywhere mutating into Dump Truck sized man-eaters. Is that worse than nuclear fire?  ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 05, 2022, 10:53:08 PM
relax, theres to many russians in Floriduh to get nuked.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 06, 2022, 12:50:10 AM
Slash, wouldn't the nuclear winter kill the mutated giant iguanas?

I'm okay with the "Hint at it, then leak it, then deny it" strategy.  I wouldn't want to openly acknowledge it.  Not knowing is a lot worse than knowing. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 06, 2022, 07:18:12 AM
Quote from: Skoop on May 05, 2022, 08:58:04 PMI honestly don't give 2 shits about upsetting Russia with intel on generals location or Moskva location.  It's quite obvious our jstars and awacs are airborne every day doing surveillance and our satellites are watching everything.  The Russians already know this and are fools if they don't.  I thinks it's message that we don't even need to have boots on the ground and we can affect this war in a decisive way.

I immediately thought of a certain national military commander-in-chief leaning forward and creepily whispering for emphasis into a microphone: "Over the horizon capability..."

However, it does require us to have some boots on the ground, as viable allies. OTHCap wouldn't work quite as well if Putin had totally overrun and overthrown the Uks in the first week.

Incidentally, I'd be willing to bet a Coke that there's at least one US or NATO sub in the Black Sea providing surveillance intel, too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on May 06, 2022, 09:36:07 AM
Quote from: Skoop on May 05, 2022, 08:44:54 PM
I second the CMO suggestion from above.  It's like a living encyclopedia sandbox of modern war stuff.  There's even some user made scenarios for Ukraine in the steam workshop.
I third the CMO suggestion. It is like a sandbox where you can try out various pieces of gear and scearios.  The some of the players were producing "quick look" type scenarios before the war examining topics like what a "no fly" zone enforcement would look like, how the initial Russian air campaign would go, etc.  Here are some of the latest scenarios being tested IRT the Ukraine-Russia war. 
PT: The Hunt for Cruiser Moskva, Ukraine 2022 https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10233&t=383325
Izyum, Ukraine 2022 https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10233&t=383196
Raid on Belgorod, Ukraine 2022 https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10233&t=382571
No Fly Zone - Ukraine 2022 (Posted 3-14-2022) https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10233&t=381004

Incidentally, if anyone here wants to help out with the description files in the game, PM me.  I am on the team that writes the description files used in the game.  We are always looking for people to help out in producing the description files for the 25,000+ pieces of gear in the game.  We try to do these on a "unclassified, but professional military" level of detail.  See here for some of our work: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10201&t=373623
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 06, 2022, 10:16:16 AM
Good point Sooner. I recall always hearing that Alligators can't live in cold weather and then saw the pics from a few years back of them hibernating with their snouts out of the water somewhere, Carolina maybe? So the Mutated Iguanas might evolve to do something similar. Maybe learn to work all the Hot Tubs around here.  :o  I'm comfortable with our govts. helping out the Ukrainians and just keeping it to themselves. No need to poke the Bear.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on May 06, 2022, 10:36:31 AM
Ukraine is claiming to have hit the frigate Admiral Makarov

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5278291/putin-flagship-makarov-fire-neptune-missile-snake-island/

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 06, 2022, 11:02:41 AM
^If true, you have to love the Ukrainians' style.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on May 06, 2022, 11:05:02 AM
Putin's going to get major ulcers as well as stomach cancer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 06, 2022, 11:46:05 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on May 06, 2022, 10:36:31 AM
Ukraine is claiming to have hit the frigate Admiral Makarov

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5278291/putin-flagship-makarov-fire-neptune-missile-snake-island/

   In some ways even more shocking than the hits on Moskva.  First of all, why do the Russians keep fooling around that island?  Second, that frigate (though about 1/3 the size of Moskva)
was supposedly a pretty up-to-date ship in terms of radars and electronics.  Theoretically, it should be able to defend itself pretty well against a few drones and rather ordinary antiship missiles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 06, 2022, 12:07:14 PM
Radar is still rotating.   At end of video  it looks like it is listing to starboard  (assuming we're looking at bow).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 06, 2022, 02:31:27 PM
Russian high tech kit with few exceptions appears to be underperforming. I suspect the tech is only partially at fault, but also it is not being utilized by servicemen lacking competence in the tech and not sufficiently doctrinally flexible.

I think the sea change we are seeing in western positions, showing much more public support to Ukraine, is due to nations calling Putin's nuclear bluff and the overall dismal performance of the Russian forces.

I believe that the Ukraine actions will soon be one of maneuver and the envelopment of Russian forces and their geopolitical position will be one of uniting all of the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 06, 2022, 02:45:59 PM
Underperforming = not performing at all?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 06, 2022, 02:51:39 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 06, 2022, 02:45:59 PM
Underperforming = not performing at all?

I've started watching all the war videos to the Benny Hill Theme.   It's strangely appropriate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 06, 2022, 02:53:33 PM
^New Russian national anthem?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2022, 03:16:07 PM
oh boy!  putin certainly pissed off the wrong country. 
this is propaganda done right.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1513131559834079234
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 06, 2022, 03:19:57 PM
Jesus Christ.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2022, 03:32:38 PM
right  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 06, 2022, 03:36:52 PM
Sneak some diesel-electric subs to Ukraine and they'd turn the Black Sea into a Ukrainian lake in a week flat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2022, 03:37:49 PM
oh, and sorry Pratt.  no western subs in the Black Sea at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 06, 2022, 03:45:05 PM
Doesn't look like the Ukrainians are suffering too much from not having a navy anyway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 06, 2022, 04:02:34 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 06, 2022, 03:45:05 PM
Doesn't look like the Ukrainians are suffering too much from not having a navy anyway.

True, true.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 06, 2022, 04:40:52 PM
From Politico on the press leaks of the last few days:

'There's also concern on both sides of the Atlantic that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN can't ignore what news reports now describe as an open proxy war. With "Victory Day" coming up on May 9, Ukrainian officials are assessing that the Kremlin will announce an escalation of the war — that such American involvement can't stand unanswered.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2022, 05:12:20 PM
for what its worth, its been great knowing ya'll!  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 06, 2022, 05:32:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2022, 05:12:20 PM
for what its worth, its been great knowing ya'll!  <:-)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 06, 2022, 05:56:40 PM
I never have any idea what the provenance is of those types of videos, but that Ukrainian video was downright creepy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 06, 2022, 08:10:25 PM
^Absolutely.

Hugs all around!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 06, 2022, 09:31:55 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on May 06, 2022, 04:02:34 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 06, 2022, 03:45:05 PM
Doesn't look like the Ukrainians are suffering too much from not having a navy anyway.

True, true.

Next week, we'll start seeing videos on how navies are outdated and dead meat in the world of modern warfare...  ::) THANKS RUSSIA, NOW YOU'RE MAKING NAVIES LOOK USELESS!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 06, 2022, 09:38:22 PM
At first I thought the Ukrainian girl was kind of Hot. But her and her sickle would have to sleep on the couch I'm afraid.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 06, 2022, 09:43:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2022, 03:37:49 PM
oh, and sorry Pratt.  no western subs in the Black Sea at all.

I would accept any existent Israeli subs in that category.  >:D But we were speculating earlier about Turkish subs -- they had like 12 at the start of last year, right? -- and they're members of NATO now.

As for further-western NATO subs, I suppose even NATO grade subs couldn't get through the Turkish straits without being detected, and so would be caught in violation of various agreements. But I also know sub crews are famous for doing super-ballsy things and getting away with it, so...

(Come to think of it, I seem to recall British subs in WW1 running the Turkish straits into the Sea of Mamora to do some successful ops, which I had never heard of before, when reading Churchill's wartime memoirs. I should try to search for that again, see if I'm remembering that accurately.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 06, 2022, 09:47:43 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2022, 03:16:07 PM
oh boy!  putin certainly pissed off the wrong country. 
this is propaganda done right.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1513131559834079234

As I only half-joked earlier, about Putin's 'plan' (for want of a better word):

Step 1.) Piss off Cossacks beyond all human comprehension.
Step 2.) ???
Step 3.) ...profit...?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 07, 2022, 07:53:33 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 06, 2022, 09:43:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2022, 03:37:49 PM
oh, and sorry Pratt.  no western subs in the Black Sea at all.

I would accept any existent Israeli subs in that category.  >:D But we were speculating earlier about Turkish subs -- they had like 12 at the start of last year, right? -- and they're members of NATO now.

As for further-western NATO subs, I suppose even NATO grade subs couldn't get through the Turkish straits without being detected, and so would be caught in violation of various agreements. But I also know sub crews are famous for doing super-ballsy things and getting away with it, so...

(Come to think of it, I seem to recall British subs in WW1 running the Turkish straits into the Sea of Mamora to do some successful ops, which I had never heard of before, when reading Churchill's wartime memoirs. I should try to search for that again, see if I'm remembering that accurately.)

  Turkey has been in NATO since the beginning of NATO (well, not quite -- three years after the beginning -- Turkey joined NATO in 1952).  Moreover, if the Turks wanted to, they could probably clear the Russian fleet out of the Black Sea with drones alone and of course, Turkey closed the straits to Russian ships over two months ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 07, 2022, 12:51:42 PM
The recent posts fired my curiosity and so I found this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Navy#Submarines

Originating in Germany, of course.

I think if we are looking for sub crews with balls...Israel is a great first choice.

Also this additional info:

'Currently under construction is a sixth Dolphin 2 submarine (INS Drakon). Additionally, Israel signed an MoU with Germany for the construction of three more Dolphin 2 submarines with expected delivery in the late 2020s which will replace its three Dolphin 1 submarines delivered in the late 1990s.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 07, 2022, 01:29:14 PM
this is a tasty map update covering the last few days.
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1522989565631295489

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSK7fjuXEAA_ajS?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 07, 2022, 01:37:20 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 07, 2022, 12:51:42 PM
Currently under construction is a sixth Dolphin 2 submarine (INS Drakon)

I think I understand it now.  Putin must have said Russia needed Dolphins too.


(https://lirp.cdn-website.com/8c8ca5ab/dms3rep/multi/opt/Instagram+Blog+Posts+%2830%29-1920w.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 07, 2022, 01:50:02 PM
With laser beams?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 07, 2022, 02:11:13 PM
 :hide:

(https://i.redd.it/nry2ityfz2y81.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 07, 2022, 02:56:45 PM
I dont know if youve every watched the russian tank biathlon but its was a friking joke.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 07, 2022, 03:34:01 PM
"Tank Ace," didn't mean what it was supposed to, I guess.

All that time at World of Tanks for naught, eh, Ivan?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Millipede on May 07, 2022, 05:10:12 PM
I don't see how there can be any subs in the Black Sea that aren't either Russian or Turkish. The only way for any water craft to get to the Black Sea from the Sea of Marmara is via the Bosporus which is a narrow, winding water way that runs through Istanbul. At its narrowest it is less than a mile wide and it's shallowest point is 42 ft. (13 m) and there are 4 major bridges plus heavy marine traffic. Any sub attempting passage would have to travel slowly on the surface and only with permission from Turkey. As I understand it, Turkey is remaining neutral and wants to maintain decent relations with both Ukraine and Russia and I don't know if they are allowing passage of any potential combatants. Bottom line... there are no NATO subs in the Black Sea.

Come to think of it, Turkish subs are technically NATO subs but Turkey is not going to start a war with Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 07, 2022, 09:50:49 PM
have faith

https://twitter.com/i/status/1522793167476641793
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on May 08, 2022, 02:15:10 AM
Just a thought, but would it not be wonderful if the May 9th Russian parade could be hijacked to a significant extent. I would absolutely love to hear it go really pear shaped.
No harm in wishing !
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on May 08, 2022, 06:43:48 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 07, 2022, 09:50:49 PM
have faith

https://twitter.com/i/status/1522793167476641793

From the comments: "Turtles passing the Voight-Kampff test with flying colors."  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on May 08, 2022, 02:11:12 PM
A follow up to my April 18 post on the sinking of the Moskva.  Sam LaGrone at USNI did a an analysis of the targeting and hit locations.  It is here: https://news.usni.org/2022/05/05/warship-moskva-was-blind-to-ukrainian-missile-attack-analysis-shows

The major delta between the two analyses are that Mr. LaGrone thinks both hits were at the same location.  I'm not sold on that (yet), as I think the damage in that location could be the result of a single hit.  (with that said, the RCS of the ship would be at its max about there, so maybe both missiles homed in at the same location). 

[Edit/Addendum]: the "leaked" report IRT the material condition of the Moskva was translated and put here: https://twitter.com/GrangerE04117/status/1522643831736332288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1522643831736332288%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com%2F2022%2F05%2F06%2Ftoc-ready-room-6-may-2022-intel-superheroes-of-america%2F

this indicates the SA-N-6, SA-N-4 and CWIS all had issues two weeks before the start of the war.  My thoughts are that while that very well might be true, it also may be a manufactured leak as a way for the Russians to mitigate some of the embarrassment from having their flagship sunk. ]

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on May 08, 2022, 04:26:36 PM
Quote from: planetbrain on May 08, 2022, 02:15:10 AM
Just a thought, but would it not be wonderful if the May 9th Russian parade could be hijacked to a significant extent. I would absolutely love to hear it go really pear shaped.
No harm in wishing !

I wonder if there will be any protests or sabotage at the may 9th parade.  What with all the weird fires breaking out at key places around Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on May 08, 2022, 05:11:06 PM
Trouble is though, there would be severe consequences. All is already bad enough & Ukraine is not supposed to fight back. That's an act of war!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 08, 2022, 06:38:19 PM
for a lot of reason I hope that the commies parade goes off without any serious problems.
Im fine with armatas catching fire again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 08, 2022, 07:13:34 PM
oh fuck!  Gus is going to fight in the Ukraine!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSRLVFlWYAE8wdB?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 08, 2022, 08:42:17 PM
Haha are those kneepads??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 08, 2022, 09:20:28 PM
yes
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 09, 2022, 07:38:06 AM
Nice I'll take 4 sets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 09, 2022, 08:03:12 AM
Quote from: Millipede on May 07, 2022, 05:10:12 PM
I don't see how there can be any subs in the Black Sea that aren't either Russian or Turkish. The only way for any water craft to get to the Black Sea from the Sea of Marmara is via the Bosporus which is a narrow, winding water way that runs through Istanbul. [etc.]

1.) Mostly I was thinking of Turkish subs.

2.) But I didn't want to discount the idea that Turkey might have allowed passage before the war (at night under security etc.) as a NATO member.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 09, 2022, 08:04:39 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 08, 2022, 07:13:34 PM
oh fuck!  Gus is going to fight in the Ukraine!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSRLVFlWYAE8wdB?format=jpg&name=small)

Hm. Well, that doesn't look like a seal, but it does look horrifying! -- imagine having that attacking you by surprise at night!  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 09, 2022, 08:13:58 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 08, 2022, 06:38:19 PM
for a lot of reason I hope that the commies parade goes off without any serious problems.

Saw a quick headline today (didn't have time to read the whole thing) indicating no problems with the VDay parade, no declaration of war (yet). If (real, official) mobilization has started, no overt indications yet.

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-victory-day-speech-doesnt-escalate-ukraine-war-west-warned-2022-5?inline-endstory-related-recommendations=

Hackers did prank the schedule for the parade however: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-victory-day-tv-broadcasts-hacked-anti-war-messages-2022-5

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 09, 2022, 11:09:56 AM
I don't have a link to the New Day interview on CNN per se, but RawStory (via MSN) has an interesting summary of analysis by retired BrigGen Steven Anderson this morning: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-invasion-is-a-dismal-failure-and-reality-is-sinking-in-for-him-retired-general/ar-AAX4ghr?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=0ec4c723539b4bac9a60deb67dd8b608

Salient quotes from the brief summary article:

Quote"What stood out to me was that nothing stood out," Anderson replied. "Essentially there was no new declaration of war. There was no mobilization. And I think that Vladimir Putin is starting to realize that he can't achieve his objectives militarily."

"He's essentially 0 for 3," he continued. "He started on the 24th of February with the blitzkrieg, then he attacked the city of Kyiv and that was a dismal failure. Now he's in east Donbas, and looking increasingly like he's losing there too. Reality is sinking in."

"What's going on is Ukrainians are taking it to the Russians," he later added.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 09, 2022, 11:29:18 AM
Putin needs an out, otherwise he is just going to keep doubling down (general mobilization). Power corrupts and with his ego and vision of a reborn empire he is unlikely to take defeat as an option.

The Ukraine is no Chechnya, it has western ties, a vision for the future as an independent nation and an admirable democratic model. The people of Ukraine will not let that go and now they have a substantive reason to hate Russians.
Threat of nukes or not, what Putin started the Ukraine will finish. Crimea will be in Ukraine hands - unless there is a diplomatic compromise.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 09, 2022, 11:42:47 AM
Quote from: Windigo on May 09, 2022, 11:29:18 AM
Putin needs an out, otherwise he is just going to keep doubling down (general mobilization). Power corrupts and with his ego and vision of a reborn empire he is unlikely to take defeat as an option.

The Ukraine is no Chechnya, it has western ties, a vision for the future as an independent nation and an admirable democratic model. The people of Ukraine will not let that go and now they have a substantive reason to hate Russians.
Threat of nukes or not, what Putin started the Ukraine will finish. Crimea will be in Ukraine hands - unless there is a diplomatic compromise.

  It's weird but so far, Putin seems to have picked the least workable option for dealing with Ukraine every time.  Right now he should say it was a preemptive war to protect Crimea and DNK and LNK and let the war wind down -- giving whatever concessions he can to hold on to as much as possible for as long as possible.  It seems likely that sooner or later the Russians will have to get out of most (if not all) of Ukraine.  Better to stop now and play for time -- but no -- I'm sure he'll just keep banging away in the Donbas and shooting missiles at Odessa because that's the most absurd thing to do.  Will he keep that up until his armies are destroyed?  Probably.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 09, 2022, 01:06:18 PM
As an aside, I found John Spenser's "Mini-Manual for the Urban Defender" and gave it a quick glance.
It seems the Ukraine's have taken it to heart.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 09, 2022, 03:40:30 PM
(https://i.redd.it/huixlvp2ggy81.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 09, 2022, 04:22:46 PM
^ Wow... I have to wonder at the process that got those there. Laziness? Complacent fraud (any good looking photos will do)? Lack of anything similarly worthwhile from the Soviets? (I doubt that personally.) Or... perhaps a quiet protest by some archivists?

Or maybe there's a problem showing the multiple looted watches on arms of Soviet soldiers if you blow up the photos that large, and trying to scrub them out just blurs the images too much and they look weird.  ::)

(This is a real problem for the famous Soviet flag being unfurled over Berlin, by the way: the original is usually cropped so that the soldier lower down can't be seen with his forearms covered with looted watches.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 09, 2022, 04:26:51 PM
Quote from: Windigo on May 09, 2022, 11:29:18 AM
Putin needs an out, otherwise he is just going to keep doubling down (general mobilization). Power corrupts and with his ego and vision of a reborn empire he is unlikely to take defeat as an option.

He may indeed have plans for mobilization but is unwilling to announce it out loud before he starts. His Soviet forebears had a habit of secretly setting up army and front headquarters and mobilizing universal conscription etc.

Personally, I haven't gotten the impression he has enough logistics for a general mobilization; he barely had enough for deploying his standing army plus drafted recruits. Mobilization, ironically, might be the fatal knockout blow in itself for the Russian kleptocracy: Russia's government wouldn't survive all the cascading knock-on effects.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 09, 2022, 04:48:09 PM
this guy can deliver a speech!
Zelenskys Victory Day stroll.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523638935418679296
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 09, 2022, 06:27:05 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 09, 2022, 04:48:09 PM
this guy can deliver a speech!
Zelenskys Victory Day stroll.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523638935418679296
He has quite the speech writer.  And quite the delivery. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 09, 2022, 06:43:06 PM
That was really well done. I like how he calls the Russians a mixture of Mongols and Nazis in their barbarity too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 09, 2022, 07:05:35 PM
There are advantages to having an actor as President. 

Zelensky is the right person at the right time for his country in history.  He's doing what they absolutely need, unite, inspire and leave the war to the professionals. 

Pretty much the anti-Putin right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 09, 2022, 09:54:00 PM
Mongols and Nazis'? So the Orcs are out now?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 10, 2022, 05:44:26 AM
Mongols + Nazis = Orcs
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on May 10, 2022, 06:26:36 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 10, 2022, 05:44:26 AM
Mongols + Nazis = Orcs

(https://forums.revora.net/uploads/monthly_01_2015/post-62210-0-72086800-1421876044.jpg)
;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 10, 2022, 06:39:50 AM
Perfect.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 10, 2022, 07:45:02 AM
I especially like Lurtz's little White Hand armband detail.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 10, 2022, 08:38:11 AM
Wait, so the Nazis are fighting for Isengard?  I always thought they were fighting for Mordor?  I'm so confused...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 10, 2022, 09:11:17 AM
Isengard = Italian blackshirts? Maybe Romanian.

(Come to think of it, considering their supposedly elite status, they might be considered the SS under Himmler.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 10, 2022, 10:22:38 AM
So, 'Naz-Orcs'? Or, 'Orc-Gols'?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 10, 2022, 12:33:50 PM
I always pick the Orcs whenever I play a strategy game set in the LOTR universe. 

When I play a strategy game in the WH40K universe however, I usually pick one of the Space Marine chapters or Chaos. 

To see these memes where Orcs and fascists are mixed together into some sort of hybrid is, to me a gamer, blasphemous.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 10, 2022, 01:27:07 PM
Insulting the orcs/orks, or insulting the fascists, hmm.... why not both?!  <:-)

Incidentally, while I don't usually play the orcs on LotR games (unless randomly assigned), I do often play the orks in WH40K.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on May 10, 2022, 01:35:43 PM
Carl Gustaf recoilless rifle vs T90 tank



https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3479715-russian-proryv-supertank-hit-by-carl-gustaf-recoilless-rifle.html

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 10, 2022, 01:53:23 PM
Damn! Carl packs a punch.  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 10, 2022, 01:56:56 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on May 10, 2022, 01:53:23 PM
Damn! Carl packs a punch.  :o

He does.  But to be fair right now it looks like if you sneeze in the direction of a T 72/80/90 it explodes.

That's why they're not using their dozen T-14's.  It doesn't even need a sneeze.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 10, 2022, 03:17:23 PM
Taking the video at face value (always a dubious thing on the internet these days...): 

That whole "stowing a couple shells in the turret" thing does theoretically improve your rate of fire.  But apparently only until you're hit by an 84mm anti-tank rifle designed 75 years ago...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 10, 2022, 03:30:39 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 10, 2022, 01:27:07 PM
Insulting the orcs/orks, or insulting the fascists, hmm.... why not both?!  <:-)

Incidentally, while I don't usually play the orcs on LotR games (unless randomly assigned), I do often play the orks in WH40K.

Haha!  That's why we make a good team in Dawn of War. 

But back on topic.  I heard the Russians made a nuclear threat against the US because we helped the UKR kill the Moskva.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 11, 2022, 07:17:18 AM
That reminds me, we haven't played DoW in a while; I'm finishing the Soulstorm campaign (for the first time I think?), so I'm up to speed on practice, sort of, at least as the Eldar. (I've also updated the UltApoc mod recently. This may or may not indicate I'm plotting Season Two of Dawn of Armageddon, who knows? ;) )

Anyway, hit me up when you're on Steam sometime, for some DoW while I'm back into it.  8)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 11, 2022, 07:18:48 AM
Meanwhile, Fobes (via MSN) reports that an independent journalist has spotted the Makarov healthy -- and hiding near Sevastapol.  >:D

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-journalist-just-spotted-russia-s-admiral-makarov-frigate-intact-and-at-sea/ar-AAX4Yy1?pc=U531&cvid=eacefe1cb7b842cb8c6ac97cf09de2ca

(The photo is from stock; Sutton used commercially available satellite imagery.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 11, 2022, 07:24:25 AM
The Wall Street Journal (also via MSN) gives a fuller picture of the Victory Day parade and Putin's speech:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-uses-russia-s-victory-day-parade-to-justify-invasion-of-ukraine/ar-AAX4jkt?pc=U531&cvid=eacefe1cb7b842cb8c6ac97cf09de2ca

Naturally, Zelensky had something pithy to say before the parade, considering that the Ukraine also celebrates V-Day against the Nazis: "Very soon, there will be two Victory Days in Ukraine, and someone won't have any."  >:D

I think this technically and formally counts as 'chutzpah'.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 11, 2022, 07:42:18 AM
actually watch the two speeches Pratt, the difference is striking.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 11, 2022, 08:16:10 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 11, 2022, 07:18:48 AM
Meanwhile, Fobes (via MSN) reports that an independent journalist has spotted the Makarov healthy -- and hiding near Sevastapol.  >:D

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-journalist-just-spotted-russia-s-admiral-makarov-frigate-intact-and-at-sea/ar-AAX4Yy1?pc=U531&cvid=eacefe1cb7b842cb8c6ac97cf09de2ca

(The photo is from stock; Sutton used commercially available satellite imagery.)

   There were three frigates of that class in the Black Sea.  Seeing one that is "healthy" (afloat and not noticiably damaged) suggests two may be at the bottom of the sea, though I suspect
these particular frigates are more capable of protecting themselves than any other ships currently in the Black Sea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on May 11, 2022, 08:17:58 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 11, 2022, 07:18:48 AM
Meanwhile, Fobes (via MSN) reports that an independent journalist has spotted the Makarov healthy -- and hiding near Sevastapol.  >:D

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-journalist-just-spotted-russia-s-admiral-makarov-frigate-intact-and-at-sea/ar-AAX4Yy1?pc=U531&cvid=eacefe1cb7b842cb8c6ac97cf09de2ca

(The photo is from stock; Sutton used commercially available satellite imagery.)

Jason-Thanks for the link.  While debunking the claim that the Makarov was hit, [Addendum: MengJiao correctly notes the Russians have 3 of the class in the Black Sea so it is possible that Sutton's analysis was incorrect IRT the Makarov.  However, the article seems to indicate that Sutton did a ship count, so he may in fact be correct about the Makarov.]  the article notes that based on where the Russian fleet was found, the Russians may have actually lost command of the sea.  This is not to say that The Ukrainians have command of the sea.  Rather, it indicates the Black Sea is contested (possibly analogous to the Solomon Islands in August-October 1942?)  If true, this means that the Russians (at least for now) will be unable to threaten the coastline with amphibious operations.  This is turn will free up Ukrainian resources for their main offensive effort (which is coming, I believe).

From the article:
"But it's worth noting where Sutton found Admiral Makarov on or before Monday: sailing near Sevastopol in the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. In other words, close to home.

Indeed, Sutton narrowed the locations of most of the underway Black Sea Fleet to a narrow swathe of ocean off the west coast of Crimea. Just two ships—a landing craft and one unidentified vessel—were near Snake Island, the current locus of naval combat between Ukraine and Russia.

...

But it's clearer than ever that the Kremlin is reluctant to risk these ships, even though the Ukrainian navy, having scuttled its flagship frigate in Odesa, no longer has a single large vessel. No, Kyiv's drones and missiles are the threats. And they're significant ones."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 11, 2022, 08:28:46 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 11, 2022, 07:24:25 AM
The Wall Street Journal (also via MSN) gives a fuller picture of the Victory Day parade and Putin's speech:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-uses-russia-s-victory-day-parade-to-justify-invasion-of-ukraine/ar-AAX4jkt?pc=U531&cvid=eacefe1cb7b842cb8c6ac97cf09de2ca

Naturally, Zelensky had something pithy to say before the parade, considering that the Ukraine also celebrates V-Day against the Nazis: "Very soon, there will be two Victory Days in Ukraine, and someone won't have any."  >:D

I think this technically and formally counts as 'chutzpah'.

  But maybe that's all academic cuz Russia says they do not want a war in Europe (or any more Black Magic etc. etc. etc.):

  Russia does not want war in Europe, its foreign minister says
From CNN's Katharina Krebs in London

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia does not want a continent-wide war in Europe, but added a note of caution surrounding the intentions surrounding the Western governments supporting Ukraine.

"If you are concerned about the prospect of war in Europe, we absolutely do not want this, but I draw your attention to the fact that West constantly insists that Russia must be defeated in this situation. Draw your own conclusions," Lavrov said.


  The obvious conclusion is that the Russians have pushed senseless statements beyond the point of total absurdity.  How can the Russians reasonably say they "Don't want a war" when
when they have been conducting one for months?  How is the fact that "the West" wants them to stop a reason to continue if they really don't want a war?  The only reasonable answer
for the Russians is to accept defeat and stop the war.  The fact that the people under attack are resisting more or less successfully with support is a reason to stop, not a reason to continue.

  And, by the way, I think the statements about how US intel is helping Ukraine are meant to have a deterrent effect on the Russians.  Obviously at some level such deterrence works
by simply destroying what you hoped the deterred would stop using, but overall, it is hard to judge since one aspect of deterrence is that you hope the targets of deterrence are able
to grasp that they ought to be deterred for their own good.  Of course sometimes deterrence fails if the targets of deterrence "miscalculate" (or however you want to phrase your
characterization of what looks like pure folly and total lameness and absolute idiocy).



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 11, 2022, 05:20:48 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 11, 2022, 08:28:46 AM

  And, by the way, I think the statements about how US intel is helping Ukraine are meant to have a deterrent effect on the Russians.  Obviously at some level such deterrence works
by simply destroying what you hoped the deterred would stop using, but overall, it is hard to judge since one aspect of deterrence is that you hope the targets of deterrence are able
to grasp that they ought to be deterred for their own good.  Of course sometimes deterrence fails if the targets of deterrence "miscalculate" (or however you want to phrase your
characterization of what looks like pure folly and total lameness and absolute idiocy).

  And it seems the Ukrainians are blasting the Russians pretty massively at times:

Ukrainians eliminate at least 2 pontoon bridges near Bilohorivka, satellite and drone images show
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy, Tim Lister, Gianluca Mezzofiore and Katie Polglase

The Ukrainians have — twice in the last 24 hours — stopped Russians efforts to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in the Luhansk oblast, blowing up two pontoon bridges near Bilohorivka.

A satellite image collected by geospatial intelligence firm BlackSky shows a Russian pontoon bridge crossing the river on May 10 shortly after a Ukrainian artillery barrage hit the surrounding area.

Smoke is seen rising from the western shore of the Siverskyi Donets River at one end of the bridge. On the eastern bank, craters and smoke are also seen on the eastern shore, including around Russian military vehicles that crossed over.

Grainy drone video circulating on social media, geolocated and its authenticity verified by CNN, shows the aftermath of the strikes. The military strikes destroyed the bridge, which is seen half-sunk in the river.

Additional photos circulating on social media, also taken by a drone, show the Russians tried to erect a second pontoon bridge across the river. That bridge, too, was blown up by the Ukrainians in addition to a number of military vehicles. 

Traversing Ukraine's topography — specifically its rivers — has repeatedly proven a logistical nightmare that's hampered Russian military advances for weeks, across numerous parts of Ukraine. In more remote areas, or in places that bridges have been blown up, they have resorted to utilizing pontoon bridges.

These bridges have repeatedly been targeted and blown up by Ukrainian forces.

CNN has previously reported the bridge first appeared on May 8.

Serhiy Hayday, the Luhansk regional military administrator, said on Wednesday that the Russians are continuing to try to construct bridges across the Siverskyi Donets River. He also said that the Ukrainians have repeatedly blown them up. 


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 11, 2022, 05:54:42 PM
I wonder whether either side is allowing third-country journalists anywhere near the fighting?  All we get these days are video clips that might as well be from a 4K RTS game. 

I know next to nothing about Russian engineering brigade competence, but I have to think that, unless they're able to shut down the threat of Ukrainian drones, trying to push lots of supplies across pontoon bridges will be an uphill battle. 

In the Western Europe breakout in 1944, how much success did the Allies have pushing supplies over pontoon bridges?  Obviously, they had the advantage of total air superiority, such that their own pontoon bridges were more secure once they cleared out the surrounding countryside.  But I have no idea how fragile they are, or how much daily tonnage they can pass over compared to a standard-construction road bridge.

Can you drive an MBT across a modern pontoon bridge?  We must have somebody on this board who served in an engineering brigade somewhere in the last 40 years...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 11, 2022, 06:42:14 PM
the Eastern Front is chock full of bridge building during all types of battle.  theres more then one account of soviets driving t34s into rivers and drowning them to form a foundation for the bridge.

the russians got 100% trashed today at a pontoon bridge.
6x T-72B-series MBT, 14x BMP-1/2 variants, 7x MT-LB, a tugboat & 5+ other armoured vehicles destroyed/abandoned/damaged.
thats a pretty hard fail!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSfM6MHXsAA0NJu?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSfM7FCXEAE7dRA?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSfM70SXsAEXaWu?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSfM9VUXIAM79Sj?format=jpg&name=large)

there are also a few chinese press covering the war.  in fact todays turret throw champion was covered by such a reporter.
heres the toss:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1524351169166024707

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 11, 2022, 06:54:02 PM
Jesus.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 11, 2022, 07:05:58 PM
which part?  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 11, 2022, 07:21:22 PM
those losses would have been just a Tuesday morning probe during WW2.
now its a decisive defeat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 11, 2022, 07:51:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 11, 2022, 07:21:22 PM
those losses would have been just a Tuesday morning probe during WW2.
now its a decisive defeat.

True. True.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on May 11, 2022, 08:08:52 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on May 11, 2022, 07:51:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 11, 2022, 07:21:22 PM
those losses would have been just a Tuesday morning probe during WW2.
now its a decisive defeat.

True. True.
Actually historically its looking pretty bad for the Russians -  If compared to the Germans in WW2 they have lost more tanks than the Germans lost in the entire year of fighting in 1943 including the Kursk offensive
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522895222547570688?s=20&t=ZoBHy3hQ9IPkfAP0ys954A
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 11, 2022, 08:46:40 PM
Oryx is a much more conservative and verified count.  that list is coming up of 700 tank kills alone.
be that as it may, I'm pretty sure the soviets lost more then 1200 tanks during 1943.   ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 11, 2022, 11:39:24 PM
That looks like an entire BTG of ex-vehicles there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on May 12, 2022, 04:25:56 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 11, 2022, 05:54:42 PM

Can you drive an MBT across a modern pontoon bridge?  We must have somebody on this board who served in an engineering brigade somewhere in the last 40 years...

here is how NATO does it: Attack over a river   
(joint exercise Dutch, Brits and Germans forced crossing 100m of Weser River near Minden
two types of bridge building methodes used, ...it takes 20-45 min for a 100m river bridge)


even so Audio is in German,  i bet you guys can enjoy it  ;) 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 12, 2022, 07:58:09 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61420185

Finland will formally announce its decision to apply for Nato membership on Sunday after it has been considered by parliament and other senior political figures.

Sweden has said it will announce a similar decision on the same day.

Speaking to journalists later, Finish President Mr. Niinisto responded to Russian concerns : "You caused this. Look in the mirror".



Putin is getting better at having what he never wanted.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 12, 2022, 08:23:11 AM
In post-Soviet Russia, fridges tank you....?

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-says-russia-using-chips-from-dishwashers-in-tanks-sanctions-2022-5

The sanctions have been forcing a computer chip failure in Russian armored equipment, including tanks.

Meanwhile, Russian jet pilots are duck-taping simple GPS receivers to their dashboards, because their onboard equipment sucks so badly!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 12, 2022, 08:25:39 AM
Fox News reports (via MSN) that Putin may declare victory and call it quits if he can just secure the Kherson region.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-signaled-intent-to-end-current-phase-of-invasion-cut-losses-with-kherson-referendum-expert/ar-AAXar9t?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=c27a3334356e42bd86d85eb681dde0d7

Well, y'know, quit "the current phase" of the invasion.  ::) (The phase where he's losing so much of his army, air force, and navy.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FlickJax on May 12, 2022, 08:53:15 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 12, 2022, 08:25:39 AM
Fox News reports (via MSN) that Putin may declare victory and call it quits if he can just secure the Kherson region.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-signaled-intent-to-end-current-phase-of-invasion-cut-losses-with-kherson-referendum-expert/ar-AAXar9t?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=c27a3334356e42bd86d85eb681dde0d7

Well, y'know, quit "the current phase" of the invasion.  ::) (The phase where he's losing so much of his army, air force, and navy.)

What if the Ukranians have something to say about it...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on May 12, 2022, 09:53:58 AM
Why do I think NATO forces would totally bitch slap Russian forces in a conventional war? :coolsmiley:

Are the Russians really this shitty?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2022, 10:28:42 AM
yes, they are.  <:-)

they made themselves out to be 10 feet tall and we believed them for decades.
that belief led us to over train, over engineer and over prepare our military to fight them and win outnumbered on the inter German border.
the result was we have F-22s and M1-a2s and an actual ability to support global logistics.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 12, 2022, 11:07:38 AM
^Has someone, somewhere deep in the Kremlin also absorbed this same lesson?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 12, 2022, 11:14:12 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 12, 2022, 11:07:38 AM
^Has someone, somewhere deep in the Kremlin also absorbed this same lesson?
If they did, they're keeping their mouth shut.  Don't want to be an "I told you so" in that environment!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2022, 11:57:44 AM
Red Storm Rising went from being a pessimistic story where NATO got lucky to being a story where the soviets are overly lucky to have gotten as far as they did.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 12, 2022, 12:08:15 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 12, 2022, 11:07:38 AM
^Has someone, somewhere deep in the Kremlin also absorbed this same lesson?

   It's not an easy thing to absorb -- going from being a superpower to being something disturbingly transitional and ineptly dystopian.  I keep noting that
the Russian GDP before this war in Ukraine was 1.4 trillion which was one-tenth the Chinese GDP (who  knows now with China's COVID problems).
The world has changed and the Russians haven't
really tried to keep up.  They have gone through the motions of some kind of transition, but not really accomplished much in the way of positive change.
I guess the reason they keep going on about their nukes is that that is about the only slightly credible threat they have left.

  And now they are "threatening" ( in their usual diffuse and unconvincing way) Finland -- which is of course totally counter-productive for them.  Really they should
shut up and get a life.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2022, 12:16:29 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FShaNM3XsAI6v1-?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 12, 2022, 12:18:51 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 12, 2022, 12:08:15 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 12, 2022, 11:07:38 AM
^Has someone, somewhere deep in the Kremlin also absorbed this same lesson?

    Really they should
shut up and get a life.

  This just in (incomprehensibly from the Daily Mail -- the Translated from Italian in the Persian Djbouti edition I  think):

The ex-boyfriend of Vladimir Putin 's alleged mistress is being hunted by the Russian president's personal CIA. Former police captain Shalva Museliana, 52, dated Olympic gymnast and ex-MP Alina Kabaeva. Colonel Museliana is accused by the Russian Investigative Committee of 'theft of state funds' linked to a series of sabotage Arctic ports.


  Okay...lots of alleged ex-es there...how do you steal "state funds" by something "linked to series of sabotage Arctic ports"...?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 12, 2022, 12:26:42 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 12, 2022, 12:18:51 PM


    Really they should
shut up and get a life.

  This just in (incomprehensibly from the Daily Mail -- the Translated from Italian in the Persian Djbouti edition I  think):

The ex-boyfriend of Vladimir Putin 's alleged mistress is being hunted by the Russian president's personal CIA. Former police captain Shalva Museliana, 52, dated Olympic gymnast and ex-MP Alina Kabaeva. Colonel Museliana is accused by the Russian Investigative Committee of 'theft of state funds' linked to a series of sabotage Arctic ports.


  Okay...lots of alleged ex-es there...how do you steal "state funds" by something "linked to series of sabotage Arctic ports"...?

  And is Colonel Museliana the same person as Captain Museliana?  (an ex-police captain?)  A "Colonel" in whose army?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on May 12, 2022, 02:17:22 PM

Ukraine conflict: Russian soldiers seen shooting dead unarmed civilians

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61425025 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61425025)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 12, 2022, 03:20:55 PM
How do you even "steal" state funds in a system like Russia?  Does that mean you took skims and kickbacks that were meant for one of the oligarchs?  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 12, 2022, 03:43:20 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2022, 11:57:44 AM
Red Storm Rising went from being a pessimistic story where NATO got lucky to being a story where the soviets are overly lucky to have gotten as far as they did.

To be fair, I recall the Soviet drive stalling out pretty badly until Soviet Rommel leveled up enough in rank to strategize for more than his local forces, whereupon he nearly turned things around for the Red team.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 12, 2022, 04:54:17 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on May 12, 2022, 03:20:55 PM
How do you even "steal" state funds in a system like Russia?  Does that mean you took skims and kickbacks that were meant for one of the oligarchs?  ::)

  How do you steal state funds "linked to a series of sabotage Arctic ports" in any system?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 12, 2022, 05:44:46 PM
All very good questions, and more to come I'm sure!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 12, 2022, 09:20:26 PM
In the current Russian system you steal state funds by putting them to their intended use instead of letting the mafia/oligarchs get it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 12, 2022, 10:01:01 PM
T-72 explosion...  A Chinese news media video reportedly of a T-72 blowing up. 

The amazing thing is how high the turret goes into the air, looks like 30 feet up or more. 

I don't know what I was thinking...but I would have guessed the turrets go up about 10 feet before I saw this.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/video-of-russian-tank-blowing-up-in-ukraine-captured-by-china-state-media/ar-AAXd5Nx?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3b8209294d2e4ef6a0a8f4d08611c616 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/video-of-russian-tank-blowing-up-in-ukraine-captured-by-china-state-media/ar-AAXd5Nx?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3b8209294d2e4ef6a0a8f4d08611c616)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2022, 10:11:34 PM
that was way more then 30 feet.
the turret throw record has a turret popping and landing in a 5th floor apt.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 12, 2022, 10:14:07 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on May 12, 2022, 09:20:26 PM
In the current Russian system you steal state funds by putting them to their intended use instead of letting the mafia/oligarchs get it.

:2funny:  Touche.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 12, 2022, 10:27:27 PM
Interesting observation by BBC reporter on current tactics in the Kharkiv area. A game of "hawk and mouse":

"War in the Kharkiv region has changed - it's now a game of hawk and mouse, where each side's drones circle constantly, trying to pinpoint the enemy's tanks and guns, for targeting by artillery."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61378196 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61378196)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 12, 2022, 11:18:07 PM
I suspect a combination of good anti-drone systems, self-propelled/armored attilery to "shoot and scoot", and high-end radar to pinpoint the location of enemy batteries firing on your own side is the combo that both sides are looking for.

The lack of safety for the Russian auto breech-loader (3 rounds in the turret) has been a point of concern for those T-72s and T-80s for a long time.  The number of turretless tanks certainly suggests that their engineering never figured that out.  It's a far cry from the T-34, for sure. 

Little about the old Soviet system was meritocratic, which is why it fell.  It sounds like the Putinist system in Russia is, if anything, even less meritocratic.  That, or it was just never stress-tested the way that the old Communist system was in Afghanistan.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 13, 2022, 02:53:08 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 12, 2022, 12:18:51 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 12, 2022, 12:08:15 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 12, 2022, 11:07:38 AM
^Has someone, somewhere deep in the Kremlin also absorbed this same lesson?

    Really they should
shut up and get a life.

  This just in (incomprehensibly from the Daily Mail -- the Translated from Italian in the Persian Djbouti edition I  think):

The ex-boyfriend of Vladimir Putin 's alleged mistress is being hunted by the Russian president's personal CIA. Former police captain Shalva Museliana, 52, dated Olympic gymnast and ex-MP Alina Kabaeva. Colonel Museliana is accused by the Russian Investigative Committee of 'theft of state funds' linked to a series of sabotage Arctic ports.


  Okay...lots of alleged ex-es there...how do you steal "state funds" by something "linked to series of sabotage Arctic ports"...?

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/vladimir-putin-secret-lover-pregnant-26940473
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/world-news/vladimir-putins-secret-mistress-pregnant-26921092

Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly outraged about his secret gymnast lover falling pregnant again.
Putin, 69, is alleged to have already fathered at least two sons with former Olympic gymnast Alina Kabaeva.

Putin could now have another baby on the way after reportedly discovering that his mistress, aged 38, is expecting, The Mirror reports.
Sources informed The Sun that the Russian President was furious when the news broke as he was preparing for Russia's Victory Day parade in Red Square, Moscow.


Maybe the two ex-es kept in touch and Putin just found out ?  Maybe Artic port was the codename for Kabaeva  >:D. ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on May 13, 2022, 05:44:39 AM
Design flaws notwithstanding have we reached the age where armor is relatively useless?

Between using mini drones, well entrenched guerrilla infantry and smart weapons that can almost shoot the tip off of a cigarette it seems like armor are just sitting ducks.

This could also be a result of the Russia "battle plan"  ;D ;D ;D ;D of sending their armor down a road single file and other wonderful examples of mismanagement but sure seems like armor is not the place to be in today's battlefield.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 13, 2022, 07:00:28 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMwiH_5WUAUVXbA?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 13, 2022, 07:43:02 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on May 13, 2022, 02:53:08 AM
Maybe Artic port was the codename for Kabaeva  >:D. ?

"Series of sabotage" indeed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 13, 2022, 08:26:23 AM
Pornhub for the win!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 13, 2022, 10:11:55 AM
In case you're wondering why there's such a focus on the "Arctic port"... (no, not that one, the figurative one), the Wall Street Journal (via MSN) gives lots of useful information!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/president-putin-s-reputed-girlfriend-sanctioned-by-u-k/ar-AAXdZSC?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=aa45c906fea6437b9966e9053518368e

Kabaeva isn't just an innocent gymnast swept up into a sordid business she cannot escape from (though maybe that, too, at least originally). She's a major Russian politician and ally for Putin.

Also, her example illustrates how Putin operates his finances, which again is why sanctions are going after friends and relatives of his (up to and including Putin's two official daughters, and Ms. Kabaeva's grandmother!) He only officially 'owns' a few valuable items; everything else is spread out around his friends, family, and allies, for safekeeping off the books.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 13, 2022, 10:32:43 AM
She doesn't look particularly innocent to me  :nerd:

(https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2D5CX1G/world-champion-alina-kabaeva-of-russia-performs-the-ball-event-in-the-world-rhythmic-gymnastics-club-championships-in-tokyo-october-10-kabaeva-scored-perfect-10-point-in-all-four-events-to-win-the-individual-all-around-title-kmdl-2D5CX1G.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 13, 2022, 10:38:55 AM
It's good to be the dictator.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 13, 2022, 11:07:24 AM
Unlike the rest of Russia, she can look right at him as he's $%^$! her over.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 13, 2022, 11:08:10 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 13, 2022, 08:26:23 AM
Pornhub for the win!

  Or is it a "hoax"?  What's puzzling here is the Russians are threatening Finland -- but they aren't going to stop supplying natural gas?  So where does the
hoax begin or end?  Russia claims to be threatening Finland (and everyone else on the planet) so the threats would pertain to something less threatening
than a threat to shut off the gas?  Some bad memes on social media or something?  Maybe just some egregious misspellings here and there across the globe?
Maybe Bulgargaz with an extra "gar" as in Bulgargargaz?  Good Heavens!  That's brutal.



   Kremlin says reports that Russia will halt gas supplies to Finland on Friday are a "hoax"
From CNN's Anna Chernova

The Kremlin said Russia doesn't plan to stop gas supplies to Finland starting Friday, calling Finnish media reports alleging it would happen a "hoax."

"Gazprom supplies gas to various consumers in Europe, including NATO member countries," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Friday on a conference call with journalists.

"Most likely, these reports are just another newspaper hoax," he said.

Peskov added, however, that he is unaware of the payment details referring to the Russian energy giant Gazprom, "because there is a presidential decree on a new regime of payment for gas supplies."

Some context: The Finnish government is planning to issue a second white paper on Sunday proposing that the country joins NATO, Finland's Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told reporters on Thursday. The proposal would then be put into a parliamentary vote with a plenary scheduled for Monday morning.

Russia's foreign ministry said Finland's possible accession to NATO marked a "radical change in the country's foreign policy" and warned of countermeasures.

"Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop the threats to its national security that arise in this regard," it said.

In late April, Gazprom said it fully halted supplies to Polish gas company PGNiG and Bulgaria's Bulgargaz after they refused to meet a demand by Moscow to pay in rubles rather than euros or dollars.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 13, 2022, 11:25:48 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 13, 2022, 10:32:43 AM
She doesn't look particularly innocent to me  :nerd:

She looks like an alien spider human hybrid in that photo! -- like a 4th generation Genestealer maybe? Can't quite hide the jutting teeth...  :nerd:

(Yes, the irony of my marking that nerdy comment with a jutting-teeth nerd smiley, is intentional.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 13, 2022, 11:31:21 AM
^We can only hope she's a Genestealer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 13, 2022, 11:45:10 AM
how desperate are you?  shes friking gross!  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 13, 2022, 11:45:57 AM
Who said she wasn't?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 13, 2022, 12:34:46 PM
To be fair, despite my joke, her teeth don't usually jutt out like that; it's no doubt due to the strain from flexing there.

That photo comes from the 1999 World Individual AA Final, by the way. Props for being a master athlete in any case!




This is, of course, a devious Russian ploy to distract from how badly they're losing their spicy military operation. ...SPECIAL, I mean 'special'.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 13, 2022, 12:50:26 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 13, 2022, 01:22:10 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 13, 2022, 11:08:10 AM


  Or is it a "hoax"?  What's puzzling here is the Russians are threatening Finland -- but they aren't going to stop supplying natural gas?  So where does the
hoax begin or end?  Russia claims to be threatening Finland (and everyone else on the planet) so the threats would pertain to something less threatening
than a threat to shut off the gas?  Some bad memes on social media or something?  Maybe just some egregious misspellings here and there across the globe?
Maybe Bulgargaz with an extra "gar" as in Bulgargargaz?  Good Heavens!  That's brutal.



   Kremlin says reports that Russia will halt gas supplies to Finland on Friday are a "hoax"
From CNN's Anna Chernova


   Meanwhile, the Russians are going to cut electricity to Finland...despite the fact that Finland isn't in NATO yet and that Finland can probably stay electrified without too much trouble.  Plus
Turkey may stop Finland from joining NATO.  So it seems the Russians have devised yet another way to achieve results diametrically opposite from the benefits of not pissing off everyone on the
planet.  They could have just let Turkey stop Finland, but no...better to come up with a mess of threats and then just shut off the electricity.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 13, 2022, 01:54:11 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 13, 2022, 12:50:26 PM
;D

They also use special busses to get the troops to their spicy destinations.  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 13, 2022, 02:15:37 PM
This reminds me of the classic "stabbing your hand with ladder splinters" technique in WW1.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSogc0fXoAA53gs?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 14, 2022, 09:01:25 AM
Turkey making noises that it will block Sweden and Finland from NATO membership.

https://www.newsweek.com/turkey-poised-deliver-massive-win-putin-nato-expansion-1706518 (https://www.newsweek.com/turkey-poised-deliver-massive-win-putin-nato-expansion-1706518)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 14, 2022, 11:54:33 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 14, 2022, 09:01:25 AM
Turkey making noises that it will block Sweden and Finland from NATO membership.

https://www.newsweek.com/turkey-poised-deliver-massive-win-putin-nato-expansion-1706518 (https://www.newsweek.com/turkey-poised-deliver-massive-win-putin-nato-expansion-1706518)

  I expect Turkey will try to get some geopolitical advantages out of this.  After all they are blocking Russia from getting ships into the Black Sea right now and drones of their manufacture are
working wonders against the Russians.  The US cut them out of some weapons deals when they bought the Russian S-(400?) air defense system...so they expect some goodies and I imagine they
will get them for all kinds of reasons, but at least in part because they are now the regional power with all the cards (if not yet all the firepower) in the Balkans, the Black Sea, Syria,
the Caucasus, Iran, the Aegean and Iraq.  At one point Russia might have held them in check in some of those places -- but not anymore.  Turkey and China are both set to win big out of all
this if they play their cards right and so far they both have done that on the nose.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2022, 03:58:24 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSvoog8XwAA3mMO?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 14, 2022, 08:13:57 PM
Female gymnasts seldom take a flattering photo in the midst of a performance; the make-up typical for such athletic performances tries to create a different esthetic than what one would strive for walking down the street, much less posing for a fashion shoot.  I'm sure Ms. Kabaeva is among the more attractive women her age on the planet...

As for tanks being a thing of the past, I think the primary lesson at this point is that tanks without proper infantry support are dog food.  And more lightly-armored front line combat units (AFVs and IFVs) are even more fragile.  The Russian BTG as a combined arms unit has turned in a disastrous performance.  It's a little unclear if that's a failure of equipment, training, maintenance, or doctrine.  Judging by the performance that the Russian military has turned in to date, it's probably an "all of the above" type of answer.

I do wonder how many observers NATO has embedded in front-line units in Ukraine right now?  Or whether they're just outsourcing all of that to firms like Blackwater, as a pre-condition for the copious military aid flowing in, so Blackwater can hire former US military guys to go in and then go back later and tell their next contract employers (i.e., the Pentagon) exactly what they saw, without making it look like NATO is actively involved.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2022, 08:45:40 PM
theres far far less blackwater then you think.  these are people defending their lives.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 15, 2022, 02:44:02 PM
this is important.
Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed the railway bridge between Severodonetsk and Rubizhne.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1525899280426352640
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on May 15, 2022, 02:56:33 PM
It hasn't been known as "Blackwater" since 2009. It's changed hands several times since then too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 15, 2022, 04:17:03 PM
Good to know on Blackwater.  I assume rebranding in that business is a common move.

Fury, I don't understand your response.  I wasn't suggesting that the Ukrainian resistance was a bunch of US-hired mercenaries.  I was simply speculating on how the US (and other NATO allies) was getting actively involved in-theater.  Because we know that their assistance isn't magically just stopping at the Ukrainian border, when they hand the keys of supply trucks over to Ukrainian drivers.

My speculation was on what sort of tradecraft was being used to gather that sort of front-line intel.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on May 15, 2022, 04:56:39 PM
BBC has an article "The spy war within the war".  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61311026
Looks at the efforts to expel "the legals", the spies undercover as diplomats and the concern of GRU unit 29155 staging sabotage, in probably Poland, of transporting war material into Ukraine as this unit did in Czech Republic.  Someone, posted a great post extensively covering the attack in Czech republic donkey's posts ago with lots of info on 29155.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on May 15, 2022, 05:03:17 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 15, 2022, 02:44:02 PM
this is important.
Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed the railway bridge between Severodonetsk and Rubizhne.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1525899280426352640
Giving ground in the area? Or preparing a counter-offensive?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on May 15, 2022, 05:50:16 PM
I do like the sound of my own typing.  Pop psychology anyone? When our esteemed resident grogheads psychiatric nurse made the astute observation of tardive dyskinesia (involuntary muscle movements caused by drugs, especially psychiatric medications) in Putin, I started to speculate if he had been a stimulants abuser.  Not much info on intel services using stimulants, kgb and amphetamines search is a dead end, however, militaries have readily used them such as benzedrine (mix of amphetamines) and nazis are infamous for using pervitin, methamphetamine in military and throughout society.  :o. Only example of use by int I know of is Ian Fleming having Bond consume benzedrine regularly.  Amp abuse can explain TD, paranoia and aggresion, however, a better fit is steroid abuse.
https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/opinion/gwynne-dyer-is-vladimir-putins-questionable-state-of-mind-and-decision-making-impacted-by-a-worrisome-addiction-100701407/. An annecdote from Gwynne Dyer but he quotes Lord Owen. 
QuoteSo he invaded. Three days later I heard Lord David Owen, former U.K. secretary of state for foreign affairs — but also an experienced medical doctor trained in neurology and psychology, telling Radio London that he had spotted the same puffiness as Tina in Putin's face and had reached the same conclusion. But he then went a bit farther.

"Look at his face, see how that has changed," Owen said. "He now has an oval face. People said 'Oh, it's plastic surgery or Botox,' but I don't believe that at all. He's on either anabolic steroids as a bodybuilder — and he's very proud of his muscles and strips to the waist and everything like that — or he's on corticosteroids.

"If you're on these drugs, they give you this face. They reduce your immunity and make you more vulnerable to Covid. This man has been in complete isolation, quite extraordinary, won't see anybody, stays miles away, tremendous pressures. Which indicates he's on a steroid and probably, maybe, a combination of both."

Speculation on my part, if he has abused steroids, they do cause cancer.  Circumstantially, performance enhancing drugs are well known as an issue in Russia.  The tale of the losing Russian national hockey team and Putin's displeasure after they declined his offer of enhancement comes to mind.
If, big if, he has developed cancer and is taking prednisone, lookout.  If you will allow me another anecdote, ex-Colonel Russell Williams, double murderer and serial rapist, used his prescription of prednisone in his legal defence.  I'm glad I never handled it.
Would be very happy to hear from real medicos about these theories.
Anyway, I'm probably full of it.
Out
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on May 15, 2022, 09:20:12 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on May 15, 2022, 05:03:17 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 15, 2022, 02:44:02 PM
this is important.
Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed the railway bridge between Severodonetsk and Rubizhne.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1525899280426352640
Giving ground in the area? Or preparing a counter-offensive?
Me again.
From ISW May 15 campaign assessment.  https://www.understandingwar.org/
QuoteMay 15, 2022 - Press ISW

Russian forces have likely abandoned the objective of completing a large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian units from Donetsk City to Izyum in favor of completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that the Russian military command likely understands that it will not be able to seize Donetsk Oblast but believes that it has the capacity to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk Oblast. His observations are generally consistent with our analysis. The Russian military command will likely prioritize the Battle of Severodonetsk going forward, with some efforts dedicated to disrupting Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in eastern Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are continuing a coordinated effort to seize Severodonetsk from the north and the south, which would result in a shallower encirclement of Ukrainian troops than originally expected. The failed Russian attempts to cross the Siverskyi Donets River near Kreminna may shift Russian encirclement operations further east, closer to Severodonetsk via Rubizhne, rather than conducting a wider encirclement along multiple axes. Russian forces have also likely been scaling down advances to Slovyansk from Izyum, possibly due to the slow pace of the offensive operation there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 16, 2022, 07:30:02 AM
Russia: We will take all Ukraine!
Ukraine: No.

R: So, we will take Kiev, all Donbas, and all south coast!
U: No.

R: So, we will take all Donbas and all south coast!
U: No.

R: So, um, we will take all Donbas and north of Crimea!
U: No.

R: ...so, we will take all Donbas!
U: No.

R: {sighs} so.... ..... ....we, uh... we take all of half of Donbas...?
U: {simultaneously glares and rolls eyes in Ukrainian}
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 16, 2022, 03:53:47 PM
Word on the street is that Turkey is going to veto Finland and Sweden joining NATO...reading that in BBC right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on May 16, 2022, 05:18:11 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 16, 2022, 03:53:47 PM
Word on the street is that Turkey is going to veto Finland and Sweden joining NATO...reading that in BBC right now.

I have the translation in Turkish

"We will veto them joining unless you sell us advanced military hardware that we can then sell to non-NATO members"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2022, 05:25:59 PM
this is a post from Igor Girkin who was the Minister of Defence of the Donetsk People's Republic.
so it was written from the other side of the wire.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FS4y-kiWIAEFqBe?format=png&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FS4y_lPWQAEYpZ8?format=png&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FS4zAkkXoAExCBq?format=png&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 16, 2022, 06:00:58 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 16, 2022, 03:53:47 PM
Word on the street is that Turkey is going to veto Finland and Sweden joining NATO...reading that in BBC right now.

Reddit coming in with the white-hot meme response.   :hide:


(https://i.redd.it/0n41p6mczvz81.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 16, 2022, 06:15:15 PM
Quote from: jamus34 on May 16, 2022, 05:18:11 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 16, 2022, 03:53:47 PM
Word on the street is that Turkey is going to veto Finland and Sweden joining NATO...reading that in BBC right now.

I have the translation in Turkish

"We will veto them joining unless you sell us advanced military hardware that we can then sell to non-NATO members"

  I imagine that's just one of their aims.  Of course, they have been selling their own drones to non-NATO members like Ukraine and they have the S-400 air defense and they haven't sold that
to anyone.  Last I heard they just wanted more F-16s since they were cut out of the F-35 deals.  They probably figure the F-16 is enough to deal with anything they might face from Iran or Greece or Russia or whoever.  Moreover, just by closing the straits they've done about as much to impede the Russians as most NATO members.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 16, 2022, 06:22:46 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2022, 05:25:59 PM
this is a post from Igor Girkin who was the Minister of Defence of the Donetsk People's Republic.
so it was written from the other side of the wire.


  So he figures the Russians will have to support his regime even more now that there's going to be decades of trench warfare.  I imagine he will be surprised in a few months when Russia throws in the
towel and calls the UN to supervise the mess in his little separatist enclave.  -- And by the way, what's happening in Transtnitria?  The separatist sliver of Moldova with a Russian regiment stuck in there?  They
blew up their own radio tower and shot an RPG or two at something in downtown Tarbusti (?) and nobody cared.  The Donetsk People's Republic is going to be having the same problems soon (as in nobody will care even when they blow up their own stuff to show they need help).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2022, 11:33:12 PM
very very interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1526293852704890882
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2022, 11:40:06 PM
am I alone in thinking that this war will define the next 50 years of geopolitics?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 17, 2022, 12:07:36 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2022, 11:40:06 PM
am I alone in thinking that this war will define the next 50 years of geopolitics?

You are not alone... O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on May 17, 2022, 03:41:11 AM
....let's say hallo to a new guy to our hobby, the armchair general Vlad  ;)

Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions "at the level of a colonel or brigadier", according to western military sources.

source:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources?CMP=share_btn_tw

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 17, 2022, 05:31:31 AM
That reminds me of someone.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on May 17, 2022, 07:02:28 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 17, 2022, 05:31:31 AM
That reminds me of someone.

And it didn't exactly work out great for him, either.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 17, 2022, 07:25:40 AM
then can we skip to the bunker/bullet part already  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 17, 2022, 07:58:58 AM
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/neutral-switzerland-leans-closer-nato-response-russia-2022-05-15

Switzerland's fabled neutral status is about to face its biggest test in decades, with the defence ministry tilting closer to Western military powers in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The defence ministry is drawing up a report on security options that include joint military exercises with NATO countries and "backfilling" munitions, Paelvi Pulli, head of security policy at the Swiss defence ministry told Reuters.

Switzerland nation has not fought in an international war since 1815, when it adopted neutrality at the Congress of Vienna which ended the French Revolutionary Wars.

The 1907 Hague Convention establishes Switzerland will not take part in international armed conflicts, favour warring parties with troops or armaments, or make its territory available to the warring sides.

The Swiss military favours greater cooperation with NATO as a way to strengthen national defence, while public opinion has undergone a sea-change since the Ukraine invasion.

More than half of respondents – 56% - supported increased ties with NATO, a recent poll found – well above the 37% average in recent years.

Support for actually joining the treaty remains a minority view, but has grown significantly. The April poll by Sotomo showed 33% of Swiss people supported joining the alliance, higher than the 21% long term view in a separate study by ETH university in Zurich.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 17, 2022, 09:25:16 AM
That makes me think, Putin should come here, The Honorable Grogheads Assembly of Experts in All Things, for his military advice BEFORE he decides to invade his next country. We could charge him a Retainer.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 17, 2022, 10:20:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2022, 11:33:12 PM
very very interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1526293852704890882

Yeah, I came here this morning specifically to post a Business Insider article summarizing parts of that (with a link to the video via Twitter as you posted it).

The most interesting thing to me is that (retired) Colonel Khodaryonok somehow got on RUSSIAN STATE TV at a policy-wonk discussion, and in that context got to say all that without being hit with technical difficulties. ;)

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-analyst-putin-missile-threats-against-finland-are-a-joke-2022-5
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 17, 2022, 12:43:31 PM
Unlike the Russian military, which thankfully has been plagued with plenty of 'military technical' difficulties.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 17, 2022, 01:34:51 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 17, 2022, 10:20:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2022, 11:33:12 PM
very very interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1526293852704890882

Yeah, I came here this morning specifically to post a Business Insider article summarizing parts of that (with a link to the video via Twitter as you posted it).

The most interesting thing to me is that (retired) Colonel Khodaryonok somehow got on RUSSIAN STATE TV at a policy-wonk discussion, and in that context got to say all that without being hit with technical difficulties. ;)

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-analyst-putin-missile-threats-against-finland-are-a-joke-2022-5

I assume somebody who understands the Russian language can vouch for the accuracy of the subtitles, and this isn't just an Internet hoax where somebody was too tired to do a deep fake so they just made up fake subtitles?  That is crazy hard-hitting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 17, 2022, 01:51:59 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 17, 2022, 01:34:51 PM
I assume somebody who understands the Russian language can vouch for the accuracy of the subtitles, and this isn't just an Internet hoax where somebody was too tired to do a deep fake so they just made up fake subtitles?  That is crazy hard-hitting.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2022/05/17/rusland-kritiek-op-televisie/

Confirmation of content (Dutch translation).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 17, 2022, 02:03:57 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 17, 2022, 12:43:31 PM
Unlike the Russian military, which thankfully has been plagued with plenty of 'military technical' difficulties.

  Meanwhile -- Finland and Sweden in NATO "makes no difference"...so what was the reason for attacking Ukraine?  And why can't Ukraine join NATO?  If an even more massive NATO
expansion makes no difference -- why the war against Ukraine?  Because it was supposed to be so easy?  Like Georgia, Chechenya, Crimea? amd Syria? 

Lavrov says Finland and Sweden joining NATO "makes no difference"
From CNN's Radina Gigova in London

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that NATO has "taken into account the territories of Finland and Sweden in its military plans for eastward expansion" for years, and therefore the two countries' accession to the alliance "makes no difference."

"Finland, Sweden and other neutral countries have for years participated in NATO's military exercises. NATO has taken their territories into account in planning its eastward movement," Lavrov said on Tuesday, state news agency TASS reported.

"In this context it apparently makes no difference any more (in connection with their admission to NATO)," Lavrov added.

Speaking at an educational conference organized by the Russian Znanie (Knowledge) society in Moscow, Lavrov said Russia doesn't see why Finland and Sweden should be worried about their security.

"For this reason we see their decision, which Washington and NATO surely lobbied for, as a geopolitical move in the context of Russia's containment and the implementation of NATO's plans to spread its activities to the Arctic region," he said.

"Incidentally, the Finnish President and the Finnish ambassadors everywhere have been saying that they see no threats from Russia. Admission to NATO stems from the changes in the security situation in Europe. But there is no logic here," he added.

Russia will observe how NATO uses the territories of Finland and Sweden and "make its conclusions," Lavrov said.

Finland's government said on Sunday that it intends to join NATO, and on Tuesday Sweden's foreign minister signed an application declaring the country wants to join the military alliance.

EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell reiterated on Tuesday that the European Council "strongly supports" the application of both countries to join NATO.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 17, 2022, 02:37:36 PM
^This is really all one big joke. 

So yesterday the news reported that the Bear said he'll nuke S and F if they join NATO and that very powerful military assets were rushing to the border.

Today the news is saying that the Bear said "ah, it's no big deal.  S and F can do whatever they want."

Something smells rotten in Denmark.  [no pun intended]
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 17, 2022, 04:29:38 PM
I think Lavrov means that they've been behaving so much in accord with NATO already, that as far as Russia is concerned they might as well be NATO already.

So.... .....well, huh, in context of its recent threats for joining NATO, that means Russia was already planning to make war on Finland, with nuclear threats if necessary to get what it wants, whether or not Finland joined NATO!  ::)

Kind of like another victim of Russian aggression recently. "DON'T JOIN NATO OR ELSE!" "Okay, we won't, sheesh! We profit better off playing the middle anywa--" "SURPRISE WE INVADE YOU ANYWAY! DON'T JOIN NATO OR ELSE!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 17, 2022, 05:53:31 PM
^LOL!

Makes sense.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 17, 2022, 07:27:47 PM
Putin threatened to nuke Finland and Sweden? Is there a link stating that?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 18, 2022, 05:37:56 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 17, 2022, 07:27:47 PM
Putin threatened to nuke Finland and Sweden? Is there a link stating that?

  I think the "nuke" idea derives from the phrase "deploy nuclear weapons"...apparently there was some understanding between Finland and Russia and other Baltic nations that ideally
nuclear weapons would be kept out of the Baltic Area.  The recent Russian negative assessments of the situation overall have noted that threatening to deploy or "point missiles at"
Finland or the Baltic was a "joke"...ie an absurd and pointless threat.  However, the idea that Finland's joining NATO would obviate the ideal of a Baltic area without nuclear weapons was
something that the Russians seemed to be noting aggressively for a while.  Now, of course, it seems as pointless as everything else the Russians are doing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on May 18, 2022, 07:28:39 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 18, 2022, 05:37:56 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 17, 2022, 07:27:47 PM
Putin threatened to nuke Finland and Sweden? Is there a link stating that?

  I think the "nuke" idea derives from the phrase "deploy nuclear weapons"...apparently there was some understanding between Finland and Russia and other Baltic nations that ideally
nuclear weapons would be kept out of the Baltic Area. [snip]...

The 1981 "Whiskey on the Rocks" incident pretty much ended the facade that the Soviets had not deployed nuclear weapons in the Baltic. See the quotation below from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_S-363

" The Swedish National Defence Research Institute also secretly measured for radioactive materials from outside the hull, using gamma ray spectroscopy from a specially configured Coast Guard boat. They detected something that was almost certainly uranium-238 inside the submarine, localized to the port torpedo tube.[3] U-238 was routinely used as cladding in nuclear weapons and the Swedes suspected that the submarine was in fact nuclear armed.[3] The yield of the probable weapon was estimated to be the same as the bomb dropped over Nagasaki in 1945. Although the presence of nuclear weapons on board S-363 was never officially confirmed by the Soviet authorities,[5] the vessel's political officer, Vasily Besedin, later confirmed that there were nuclear warheads on some of the torpedoes, and that the crew was ordered to destroy the boat, including these warheads, if Swedish forces tried to take control of the vessel."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 18, 2022, 08:03:11 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 17, 2022, 07:27:47 PM
Putin threatened to nuke Finland and Sweden? Is there a link stating that?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18581179/russias-threat-nukes-border-finland-sweden-nato/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 18, 2022, 08:08:02 AM
Wow. What a f@cking lunatic.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 18, 2022, 01:04:49 PM
On Russian state TV (discussion about Finland joining NATO) : About the Soviet invasion of Finland: "We never invaded, we just moved our borders deeper into Finland."  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 18, 2022, 01:24:11 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on May 18, 2022, 01:04:49 PM
On Russian state TV (discussion about Finland joining NATO) : About the Soviet invasion of Finland: "We never invaded, we just moved our borders deeper into Finland."  :o

"I didn't kill my wife, I just shot her until she died on her own."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 18, 2022, 01:32:14 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on May 18, 2022, 01:04:49 PM
On Russian state TV (discussion about Finland joining NATO) : About the Soviet invasion of Finland: "We never invaded, we just moved our borders deeper into Finland."  :o

Amazing.  ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 18, 2022, 07:29:55 PM
'I didn't punch him, he hit my fist with his face. Over and over.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 18, 2022, 09:56:09 PM
I did not steal your car. I just used it while you were asleep. Several times. It's not MY fault you sleep when I need to go somewhere.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 19, 2022, 07:50:54 AM
"I heard he slipped and fell on a knife, five times." -- Snake (Joe Pantoliano), in Running Scared, 1986.


Couldn't find a clip of the funeral scene, but here's the theme song to this now-classic buddy-cop comedy! Haven't heard it in decades!



Just pretend there's a Ukrainian partisan action clip fest running with it.   8)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 19, 2022, 08:47:12 AM
^Hahaha one of the great 80s buddy cop movies!

And Klymaxx!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 19, 2022, 01:24:33 PM

Quote from: Gusington on May 17, 2022, 12:43:31 PM
Unlike the Russian military, which thankfully has been plagued with plenty of 'military technical' difficulties.

And from alJerzira:

Moscow has said that sanctions on Russia would have to be reviewed if it were to heed a UN appeal to open access to Ukraine's Black Sea ports so that grain could be exported, according to an Interfax news agency report.

Ukraine, one of the world's biggest grain producers, used to export most of its goods through its seaports, but since Russia sent troops into Ukraine, it has been forced to export by train or via its small Danube River ports.

UN food chief David Beasley appealed on Wednesday to Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying, "If you have any heart at all, please open these ports."

Beasley's World Food Programme feeds some 125 million people and buys 50 percent of its grain from Ukraine.

Interfax on Thursday quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko as saying, "You have to not only appeal to the Russian Federation but also look deeply at the whole complex of reasons that caused the current food crisis and, in the first instance, these are the sanctions that have been imposed against Russia by the US and the EU that interfere with normal free trade, encompassing food products including wheat, fertilisers and others."

Russia's decision to send its troops into Ukraine almost three months ago has prevented Ukraine from using its main ports on the Black and Azov Seas, and cut its grain exports this month by more than half compared with a year ago.

Russia and Ukraine together account for nearly a third of global wheat supplies. Ukraine is also a major exporter of corn, barley, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil, while Russia and Belarus – which has backed Moscow in its intervention in Ukraine and is also under sanctions – account for more than 40 percent of global exports of the crop nutrient potash.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 19, 2022, 01:40:14 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 19, 2022, 01:24:33 PM
....

UN food chief David Beasley appealed on Wednesday to Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying, "If you have any heart at all, please open these ports."

Beasley's World Food Programme feeds some 125 million people and buys 50 percent of its grain from Ukraine.

.....

I am starting to wonder if all this results in some sort of "port opening" operation by the West. However I don't know what organization would do it.  A UN "blue hat" operation would be blocked by Russia. NATO is not being attacked, so couldn't do it. The EU does not really do that type of thing and as long as they are taking Russian gas they probably would not do anything. The US would not do it unilaterally since that would probably bring us into the conflict.

Still I think that some clever folks might be able to figure out a way to get it done. Maybe some sort of quid pro quo with Russia on select sanctions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 19, 2022, 02:45:25 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 19, 2022, 01:40:14 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 19, 2022, 01:24:33 PM
....

UN food chief David Beasley appealed on Wednesday to Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying, "If you have any heart at all, please open these ports."

Beasley's World Food Programme feeds some 125 million people and buys 50 percent of its grain from Ukraine.

.....

I am starting to wonder if all this results in some sort of "port opening" operation by the West. However I don't know what organization would do it.  A UN "blue hat" operation would be blocked by Russia. NATO is not being attacked, so couldn't do it. The EU does not really do that type of thing and as long as they are taking Russian gas they probably would not do anything. The US would not do it unilaterally since that would probably bring us into the conflict.

Still I think that some clever folks might be able to figure out a way to get it done. Maybe some sort of quid pro quo with Russia on select sanctions.

   What's kind of interesting is that the Russians are suggesting in a round-about way, that if sanctions were reduced they would back off and let Ukrainian ports be used for some
purposes by somebody.  Of course, this suggests another round-about which is: increase pressure on Russia until they let somebody use Ukrainian ports for something.

   But what agency and how to link "pressure" to "use of ports"?  This sounds like the beginning of  some pretty complicated negotiations.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 19, 2022, 03:05:09 PM
Nothing that gets done here happens without Turkish support or Russian acquiescence.  I can't believe we'll get any movement here, without some kind of major resolution of the larger Russian-Ukraine conflict.

I suspect that this is more likely a political pawn being moved across the diplomatic board as one more effort to find some common ground and/or another dimension on which somebody might be able to compromise.  That, or it's a pretext for seizing Russian wheat shipments that enter the open seas after leaving either Sevastopol or one of their Baltic ports?

I don't know the shelf life of grain (on the stalk or in a granary), and I have no idea what sort of shape Ukrainian farmland is in for yielding wheat later in the year.  If Ukrainian wheat goes abroad, I can't believe that the proceeds won't be used (in part) to purchase more weaponry, so a Russian blockage of Ukrainian ports is predictable, if no more justified than their invasion was in the first place.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on May 19, 2022, 07:01:12 PM
You need to harvest cereals in a timely manner so they don't rot in the field or be eaten by pests. Grains can last a long time (6 months plus) if they are treated (dried, aerated, fumigated, etc.) and stored properly.  https://www.agrivi.com/blog/the-art-of-managing-grain-quality-with-silos/#:~:text=In%20order%20to%20maximize%20grain,other%20post%2Dharvest%20management%20functions.
All difficult to accomplish in a war zone not to mention destruction /theft of equipment.  Not to mention this lovely piece of news https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/russian-troops-planted-mines-in-ukraines-fields-to-ruin-harvest-sajjan
Planting season for Ukraine is April - May

As to opening ports what would the legality be of escorting WFP hired ships even if they can't fly the UN flag.  I was wondering if an end run could be done by using an autonomous ECOSOC arm but Russia is one of the controlling members.  If there is an NGO big enough can escorts be provided or for countries sending ships?   Stream of thought.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 19, 2022, 09:42:28 PM
so we wait for a grain ship to get sunk and start escorting?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 20, 2022, 09:34:26 AM
Russia looking for older recruits for their army:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-parliament-consider-allowing-over-40s-sign-up-military-2022-05-20/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 20, 2022, 09:48:24 AM
(https://i.redd.it/pdtccud6pl091.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 20, 2022, 09:50:04 AM
^I just posted that right above you (link to Reuters) - just without the massive image
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 20, 2022, 10:24:42 AM
And without the HOI joke. ;) (Al was making a meme of it with Mematic.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 20, 2022, 10:27:23 AM
^ I didn't actually make the meme, but yeah I posted it for the sweet lulz  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 20, 2022, 10:30:52 AM
'Scraping the barrel'  :dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 20, 2022, 10:33:23 AM
This Metro article (via MSN) has a weird formatting designed for extra clickthrus, so I'll post the combined text below for convenience.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-facing-a-coup-after-his-closest-allies-accept-they-ve-lost-the-war/ss-AAXtosq?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=8b1555688be3415f8c6bcecae01879d7#image=1

QuotePutin 'facing a coup after his closest allies accept they've lost the war'

Vladimir Putin's top security officials think the war in Ukraine is 'lost', making the chances of a coup more likely, an analyst in Moscow says. The chances of the Russian tyrant launching a nuclear strike are receding as it is likely people would refuse to carry out his order.

That's according to expert and investigative journalist Christo Grozev, who suggests Putin is losing his grip on power. He says leading officials are unlikely to obey Putin's commands to launch nukes as they don't trust he will still be in power in three months time. 'I think that it is the informed elite within the security forces who understand that the war is lost,' Grozev told Radio Liberty.

He said Putin's inner circle understand the president would need a full mass mobilisation to win the war, but this would cause a 'social explosion' in Russia. Some hardliners may pressure for use of nuclear or chemical weapons, Grozev warned. But others will say 'enough is enough' and 'it is better not to waste another 10,000 lives of our soldiers and officers'.
Grozev, lead Russia investigator for investigative journalist group Bellingcat, said one or more of the 'five hands' needed to launch Russia's nukes could end up defying Putin. 'And this refusal will be the trigger, most likely, a coup d'état, because after the refusal to comply with the order of the king, everything will go down very quickly,' he added. 'If Putin decides to give an order to use nuclear weapons, he must be sure that everyone along the chain will carry out this order'. If one person does not comply, Grozev says this will be a 'signal of insubordination' which could lead to the 'death of Putin'. 'So until he is sure that everyone will comply, he will not give this order,' he added. It is known that defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the defence staff Valery Gerasimov would both need to sanction a nuclear strike.

The journalist said senior figures from the FSB security agency and the GRU military intelligence organisation are preparing for life after Putin. He said the 'FSB elite' knows exactly how many Russian troops have died in Ukraine and knows that the loved ones of the dead or missing 'do not stop asking questions'. 'They know that this situation will eventually get out of hand,' Grozev added. 'This is already a kind of betrayal by these people, because they do not follow the ideological orders of the Kremlin, but are preparing for an alternative reality'.

No link to the original Radio Liberty article, unfortunately; if someone less lazy busy than I am wants to find and link it, yay?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 20, 2022, 11:39:39 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on May 19, 2022, 07:01:12 PM
As to opening ports what would the legality be of escorting WFP hired ships even if they can't fly the UN flag.  I was wondering if an end run could be done by using an autonomous ECOSOC arm but Russia is one of the controlling members.  If there is an NGO big enough can escorts be provided or for countries sending ships?   Stream of thought.

I forget the name of the treaty, but Turkey is the enforcer for a policy that allows them to close the Bosphorous Straits to all military ships under certain circumstances (this is one of them).  Russian warships already docked at Sevastopol can remain there, but the Turks aren't allowing any more warships (of any nationality) into the Black Sea.  Closing the straits to (primarily Russian) warships was one of the first significant diplomatic developments that immediately followed the start of hostilities in Ukraine.

I could be wrong, but I can't imagine that NATO wants to tackle that diplomatic imbroglio just to get a few dozen Ukrainian wheat shipments out via boats.  It's theoretically possible, but I suspect they have bigger fish to fry.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 20, 2022, 11:49:36 AM
In terms of raising the age limit, I wonder whether this is a military move to supply combat troops in Ukraine, or whether this is intended more as an internal political stunt to field lots of old men to serve in units stationed on the "newly threatened Swedish and Finnish borders". 

I think it has more utility than "sending 45 year old men to the Donbas to operate highly technical weapons systems."  That, or it's a ploy to hire thousands and thousands of 30-40 year old non-Russian volunteers (e.g., mercenaries) to serve in their army.

From a practical, "preserve the regime" viewpoint, what Putin and Cronies need to be doing right now is figuring out how to position a ceasefire and withdrawal back to early 2022 battle lines as "mission accomplished" for their internal politics while trying to secure a ceasefire such that Putin and his army can remain secure within their own borders. 

The fact that they seem to be doing neither of those things indicates just how dysfunctional the whole Russian state has become.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: CaptainKoloth on May 20, 2022, 01:14:31 PM
Some things I've been wondering about:

It is by now quite evident that the Russian operational performance in Ukraine has been astonishingly bad relative to expectations. Given the shocking extent of these failures, I think discussion of the root causes of this have been nearly absent, even in the defense press, outside of analyzing many specific instances (e.g. shootdowns) and the same vague generalities that have percolated everywhere by now (e.g. drones good, the tank is dead!). I'm interested in drilling down to the next level on this.

There are two really interesting questions that I think have barely been addressed anywhere in detail:

1) The fact that the Russians seem barely to have practiced or effected any SEAD or DEAD is astonishing. How could this be? Page 1, Chapter 1, of the (fictional) "How to Go to War" textbook is taking out the enemy's air defenses. How did the Russians fail to perform effective SEAD, or even seem to try particularly hard? I've seen speculation that they have fired a bunch of Kh-31s, the Ukranians are probably not emitting unless they're about to fire, but still, the total lack of Russian air superiority, the fact that Ukranian airbases and air defenses are still operating, I find to be an astonishing mark of incompetence on the part of the Russian Air Force. I've seen many possible explanations- lack of training and flight hours, the Ukranians practicing good EMCON, lack of effective planning and intelligence, Russian training primarily against NATO doctrine which is much more fighter-centric, etc. No doubt the "true" answer is some combination of all of these and perhaps more factors, but the fact that the world's second-largest air force is unable to effectively suppress the 27th largest (if my numbers are correct) after multiple months of high-intensity combat would have been unthinkable just weeks ago.

2) Was Russian combined arms doctrine and performance always this bad? Had the Cold War gone hot in the 1970s or 1980s, I would expect that the Russians would have faced an even more effective, numerous, and entrenched opponent than they face now. Would they have bogged down even more quickly without resorting to tactical nuclear weapons? Or are we seeing the result of corruption and rot particular to the Putin era? Russian doctrine always involved much more minimal training and maximum quantity- if their tanks had been rolling across the Fulda Gap in the 1980s, would we have seem the same mix of untrained conscripts, poor joint services planning and action, failure to act effectively against ATGMs and secure air superiority, poor intelligence, leadership etc., or are those more likely to be more recent "features" of the Russian Army as opposed to the Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces of that time? Was the Soviet army of the time a paper tiger without resorting to use of nuclear weapons?

Again, these questions probably can't be answered for decades, if ever, but they seem very interesting to me, and they barely seem to have invited any discussion anywhere. Thoughts?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 20, 2022, 01:33:21 PM
Putting it really simplistically I think the rot you mention began in the 1980s and has been exacerbated by Putin's reign.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 20, 2022, 01:43:45 PM
Have you ever played a PBEM game with your friends and purposely thrown your game due to a secret agreement with one of your friends?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 20, 2022, 01:45:12 PM
Wait. In Russia you can sign-up for the military?  :o  I thought they handled all that for you, whether you wanted them to or not.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 20, 2022, 02:05:31 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on May 20, 2022, 01:43:45 PM
Have you ever played a PBEM game with your friends and purposely thrown your game due to a secret agreement with one of your friends?

:2funny:  Or conversely, a PBEM game where a player sneakily plugs themselves into 2 different nation slots and uses the secondary nation as a puppet for the main one.

"Hey, who's this Vladimir_Jinping guy and why is he playing both Russia and China!?"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 20, 2022, 03:04:11 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on May 20, 2022, 02:05:31 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on May 20, 2022, 01:43:45 PM
Have you ever played a PBEM game with your friends and purposely thrown your game due to a secret agreement with one of your friends?

:2funny:  Or conversely, a PBEM game where a player sneakily plugs themselves into 2 different nation slots and uses the secondary nation as a puppet for the main one.

"Hey, who's this Vladimir_Jinping guy and why is he playing both Russia and China!?"

Good point!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 20, 2022, 03:28:02 PM
Quote from: CaptainKoloth on May 20, 2022, 01:14:31 PM
Some things I've been wondering about:

It is by now quite evident that the Russian operational performance in Ukraine has been astonishingly bad relative to expectations. Given the shocking extent of these failures, I think discussion of the root causes of this have been nearly absent, even in the defense press, outside of analyzing many specific instances (e.g. shootdowns) and the same vague generalities that have percolated everywhere by now (e.g. drones good, the tank is dead!). I'm interested in drilling down to the next level on this.

There are two really interesting questions that I think have barely been addressed anywhere in detail:

1) The fact that the Russians seem barely to have practiced or effected any SEAD or DEAD is astonishing. How could this be? Page 1, Chapter 1, of the (fictional) "How to Go to War" textbook is taking out the enemy's air defenses. How did the Russians fail to perform effective SEAD, or even seem to try particularly hard? I've seen speculation that they have fired a bunch of Kh-31s, the Ukranians are probably not emitting unless they're about to fire, but still, the total lack of Russian air superiority, the fact that Ukranian airbases and air defenses are still operating, I find to be an astonishing mark of incompetence on the part of the Russian Air Force. I've seen many possible explanations- lack of training and flight hours, the Ukranians practicing good EMCON, lack of effective planning and intelligence, Russian training primarily against NATO doctrine which is much more fighter-centric, etc. No doubt the "true" answer is some combination of all of these and perhaps more factors, but the fact that the world's second-largest air force is unable to effectively suppress the 27th largest (if my numbers are correct) after multiple months of high-intensity combat would have been unthinkable just weeks ago.

2) Was Russian combined arms doctrine and performance always this bad? Had the Cold War gone hot in the 1970s or 1980s, I would expect that the Russians would have faced an even more effective, numerous, and entrenched opponent than they face now. Would they have bogged down even more quickly without resorting to tactical nuclear weapons? Or are we seeing the result of corruption and rot particular to the Putin era? Russian doctrine always involved much more minimal training and maximum quantity- if their tanks had been rolling across the Fulda Gap in the 1980s, would we have seem the same mix of untrained conscripts, poor joint services planning and action, failure to act effectively against ATGMs and secure air superiority, poor intelligence, leadership etc., or are those more likely to be more recent "features" of the Russian Army as opposed to the Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces of that time? Was the Soviet army of the time a paper tiger without resorting to use of nuclear weapons?

Again, these questions probably can't be answered for decades, if ever, but they seem very interesting to me, and they barely seem to have invited any discussion anywhere. Thoughts?

  One thing that keeps coming up is that the Russians trounced Ukraine in all departments in 2014 -- killing their generals, conducting a perfect electronic war so on.  Then the US started training the Ukrainians.
So two things might have happened overall: 1) the Russians assumed things would go like 2014
and 2) the Ukrainians -- having been badly beaten in 2014 had had 8 years to get ready to change.
An additional problem for the Russians was the pure scale of the attack on Ukraine -- immense compared to blasting Aleppo or Georgia or Chechenya or the Crimea.  They did not
adjust for that or for the possibility that the Ukrainians would have learned from their defeats in 2014.  I'm not sure why the Russian air force has not obliterated the Ukrainian Air force --
maybe because the Ukrainians worked on surviving early on and hoped just being around would work okay, ie prioritizing survival might have been a good plan.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 21, 2022, 09:04:02 AM
Is Austria next on the NATO train? Probably not...but that doesn't stop the German press from dreaming...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/will-austria-abandon-neutrality-to-join-nato/ar-AAXyBza?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0f3648b2608b46b5b630f2bfa0cbf11e (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/will-austria-abandon-neutrality-to-join-nato/ar-AAXyBza?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0f3648b2608b46b5b630f2bfa0cbf11e)

As a side note...I once asked an Austrian acquaintance what was the difference between Germans and Austrians; "That's easy" he said, "the Austrians are the 'happy' Germans."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 21, 2022, 09:19:33 AM
^Great link - fascinating.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 21, 2022, 12:20:24 PM
Captain Koloth, I think those are the two most relevant questions.  The best answer I've found is the one supplied upthread:  The rot has spread so far in Putin's Russia that the whole military command structure just collapsed once it faced a significant challenge.

The Soviet system had been rotting for a long time when Mikhail Gorbachev published Perestroika in 1987.  While the Soviet Union dissolved and the Communists were thrown out, the rot--the corruption, the centralization of power and wealth, the lack of emphasis on merit or performance--was never really addressed.

I was raised in the US, but spent a little time in Western and Eastern Europe in the first half of 1986, literally as the Iron Curtain was rusting away.  The rot in the Soviet system was obvious then.  You saw it in the broken-down state of their infrastructure, you saw it in the filthy pollution and the never-ending construction projects that littered their cities, you saw it in military equipment rusting by the roadside, you saw it in the way people talked about the crudeness and inability of the former regimes to execute on even basic principles. 

The Soviet system was rotten and collapsed under its own weight.  It simply couldn't handle complexity.  Had they gone to war with NATO in the earlier 80s, I think you would have seen an epic fail that could have resulted in nuclear war.  Fortunately, we never went there.

I think that the Russian combined arms practice has been a disastrous failure.  It's probably been a perfect storm of too-lean infantry assignments in the now infamous BTGs, a lack of training/morale among the infantry, the dramatic underperformance of Russian C3I systems, inept commanders, the proliferation of man-portable AT weapons among Ukraine troops, and the vast improvements in Ukrainian small-unit tactics fighting in the Donbas for the last 7 years. 

One can argue that all of those are attributable to 'the rot'.  Western countries are FAR from perfectly meritocratic.  But it's obvious that the Russian system is much worse than we are.  I'd be very surprised if that doesn't extend to almost every corner of Russian society, from their hospitals to their utilities to their construction techniques to their agriculture.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 21, 2022, 02:35:03 PM
So we're just seeing that epic fail 30 years later - still with the risk of nuclear war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 21, 2022, 04:09:26 PM
It's unclear if Russia has been this corrupt consistently over the last 30 years.  Corruption in most countries is something that ebbs and flows, with changes in leadership, competition for resources, signals from outside, etc.  But there is little to suggest that the rot within Putin's Russia today isn't at least as bad as it ever was under the Communists.

The Communists at least had to pay lip service to the lie of solidarity with the Russian proletariat.  Putin's oligarchs had no such compunctions.

I say this not having spent a minute inside Russia in my life, although I've paid a lot of attention to the country over the last 35 years.  Those with real-world experiences in Russia and the former USSR could probably comment with more credibility than I could.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 21, 2022, 04:34:34 PM
Russia has always been close to ungovernable because of its size, going Ivan the Terrible and probably even before.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Silent Disapproval Robot on May 21, 2022, 10:22:09 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 21, 2022, 09:04:02 AM

As a side note...I once asked an Austrian acquaintance what was the difference between Germans and Austrians; "That's easy" he said, "the Austrians are the 'happy' Germans."

Well, except for those disgruntled artist types.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 21, 2022, 11:09:36 PM
(https://scontent.fmia1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/281778206_5005937799459407_1120851765754084465_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5cd70e&_nc_ohc=LY1dOjHJfcwAX95EsMF&_nc_ht=scontent.fmia1-1.fna&oh=00_AT_hSNFJKZPhTtfWBaRIoqmmBXvfcLjHrmKuE7NmiiVufA&oe=628E0792)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 22, 2022, 03:49:03 PM
^ Excellent meme!

Going back to the initial (and ongoing) SEAD/DEAD failure: now that we've had a few months, what's the assessment of Putin's initial missile strikes across basically all of Ukraine? Normally you'd be throwing those at CCC areas for disruption purposes and also at AAA areas to suppress them while the Air Force arrived just behind them to move some more mud (and maybe clear out any CAP loitering on guard), shutting down the air bases. (And then, at least theoretically, dropping airborne chutes onto as many airbases as feasibly possible to take and hold the ground until their air-mobile divisional assets could arrive and land behind them in gliders and, more importantly, normal transports -- to be forged up with the blitz push across the borders, of course.)

So, what exactly did that initial wave of missile strikes accomplish, if anything?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on May 22, 2022, 05:30:54 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 22, 2022, 03:49:03 PM
So, what exactly did that initial wave of missile strikes accomplish, if anything?
From April 15 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61106245
QuoteThe fact he is even sitting here speaking to us is somewhat remarkable - especially given the fact that "many air defence facilities were destroyed fully or partially" in the first days of the war.

It's a rare public admission by Ukrainian forces that they suffered significant losses in the early stages of the war.

But despite these losses, the air defences which survived have still been used to good effect...
Capt Kravchuk told the BBC: "We now lack medium and long range air defence systems... we do not have enough."

A renewed Russian offensive in the Donbas will put another serious strain on Ukraine's limited air defence.
So Russia's initial SEAD hadn't completely failed and the interviewee states that the Ukrainians are hoping for more and modern AD.  The Russians should have done better but fortunately have not.  Ukraine AD also has to deal with Russian missiles.

QuoteUkraine is having to use its air defences not just to target Russian aircraft, but also Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. They are having some success, but they can't destroy everything.

Capt Kravchuk estimates that his unit is shooting down between 50-70% of Russia's longer-range missiles. As an example, he says when Russia fired six missiles around Dnipro recently they managed to stop four.

That still suggests a significant number are getting through. The Pentagon says that Russia has launched 1,550 missiles since the war began.

As to a glider assault, why not?  ;) It would be amusing at least.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 22, 2022, 06:08:10 PM
gliders Pratt?    L:-)  :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 22, 2022, 07:58:56 PM
The way things have been playing out for the Russians, using gliders would be a shit-show of biblical proportions - but on the other hand, why the hell not at this point?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on May 22, 2022, 08:11:50 PM
To build gliders, they at least won't have to cannibalize any dishwashers for the new model Russian Air Force.

Pratt: We know you're discussing past airborne military theory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 23, 2022, 07:57:50 AM
Yeah, I can tell a neuron must have chirped in "YOU'RE TRYING NOT TO FORGET ANYTHING SO DON'T FORGET THE GLIDERS!"  ::)  :hide:  I didn't even realize I had typed that until y'all mentioned it!

In related news, I got my first bifocals Saturday, so I get to deal with these for the rest of my natural life.  :buck2: Yet another step on the "aging" track.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 23, 2022, 12:20:00 PM
It's okay, Jason, at least you weren't talking about a phalanx of massed Gatling guns!

I think a detailed breakdown of the Russian failures in SEAD/DEAD will have to wait at least a year or two after the end of the conflict to be finalized, but if I had to guess, in no particular order, here's my guess as to what happened:


The Ukrainian Air Force has had more symbolic value to the Ukrainians than military significance, I think.  It's another huge middle finger to the Russians, as portrayed on Ukrainian social media.

The real question that I don't see anybody answering today is whether the Russian Air Force is having any luck disrupting Ukrainian supply flows to the fronts in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.  I'd have to assume that, between plane attacks and missile attacks, they've bombed the crap out of railroad lines leading East in Ukraine.  So most supplies are flowing from Poland to Kyiv, and then eastward, via trucks. 

I assume that the Battle in the East of Ukraine a bit resembles the Allied breakout from the Normandy beach head in 1944.  Both sides are racing to get more units and logistics to the front, and we'll see if the Ukrainians can get enough stuff there in time to drive the Russians back anywhere.  The Russians haven't been able to do much with their aerial superiority due to the robust Ukrainian ground-based air defenses, but they've still got to be able to restrict the flow of Russian supplies as long as they're willing to let combat aircraft loiter over the battlefield.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 23, 2022, 12:49:42 PM
Surely this is Russian propaganda.. ;)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10839637/Father-DUMPS-partner-falling-22-year-old-Ukrainian-refugee-came-live-them.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10839637/Father-DUMPS-partner-falling-22-year-old-Ukrainian-refugee-came-live-them.html)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 23, 2022, 12:55:32 PM
QuoteJust 10 days after meeting Sofiia (pictured) Tony left his partner of 10 years and is planning to spend the rest of his life with her

Jeez, I don't blame him.  Look at her!   :smitten:  Awooga bazinga shabooya etc etc


(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/05/21/10/58098811-10839637-image-a-32_1653124358334.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on May 23, 2022, 09:10:14 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 23, 2022, 12:20:00 PM
It's okay, Jason, at least you weren't talking about a phalanx of massed Gatling guns!

I think a detailed breakdown of the Russian failures in SEAD/DEAD will have to wait at least a year or two after the end of the conflict to be finalized, but if I had to guess, in no particular order, here's my guess as to what happened:


  • The initial Russian attacks, while disruptive, probably didn't have quite as detailed or accurate targeting info as is needed to really achieve the desired missions.
  • I suspect that the Russian Air Force had little training, and no combat experience, in suppressing even vaguely modern air defense systems from missions flown in Syria, Chechnia, or the Donbas in 2015 (2014?).
  • My understanding is that, for SEAD to work, you really have to have suppression craft loitering over the combat zone for much of the time, making sure that as soon as somebody lights up their radar, you're on them.  I don't know that the Russian Air Force ever had the patience or the capability to do that, but they certainly didn't have the will.  The Russian Air Force never really trained for Close Air Support missions, so even if they'd been able to accomplish the SEAD, I'm not sure it would have helped near the front in any event
  • I think the NATO allies flooded the country with Stingers in the early weeks of the war, making it perilous for Russian pilots to come down to the deck and do the kind of knife-fighting you really need to accomplish SEAD.  The more sophisticated Russian SAMs seemed to work pretty well in the opening stages of the war, and it's probably also been easier for NATO to train a couple hundred Ukrainian air defense soldiers how to use and support Patriots than it would be to train an entire Ukrainian Armored Division how to use Leopards.
  • Given that air drops these days are accomplished by helicopter insertion rather than glider attacks (LOL), the abundance of Russian-made SAMs in the Ukrainian Army on day one made the seizure and reinforcement of air bases dearly expensive (the Russian airborne assault on the Kyiv airport in the first 48 hours of the war was an expensive failure for the Red Army).  That problem only grew worse as more and more Stingers made it to the front.

The Ukrainian Air Force has had more symbolic value to the Ukrainians than military significance, I think.  It's another huge middle finger to the Russians, as portrayed on Ukrainian social media.

The real question that I don't see anybody answering today is whether the Russian Air Force is having any luck disrupting Ukrainian supply flows to the fronts in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.  I'd have to assume that, between plane attacks and missile attacks, they've bombed the crap out of railroad lines leading East in Ukraine.  So most supplies are flowing from Poland to Kyiv, and then eastward, via trucks. 

I assume that the Battle in the East of Ukraine a bit resembles the Allied breakout from the Normandy beach head in 1944.  Both sides are racing to get more units and logistics to the front, and we'll see if the Ukrainians can get enough stuff there in time to drive the Russians back anywhere.  The Russians haven't been able to do much with their aerial superiority due to the robust Ukrainian ground-based air defenses, but they've still got to be able to restrict the flow of Russian supplies as long as they're willing to let combat aircraft loiter over the battlefield.

I think similar reason we haven't seen the T14 armata. Horrible logistics, I've seen reports that Russians have almost no spare parts to service their aircraft and simply can't keep enough combat ready to have the needed effect.  Plus all the other points you guys mentioned.  Like napoleon said, brave men win battles, but logistics wins wars.

The Russians are vindicating why we spend so much on a professional military in the US.  More money, more training, and the best equipment will always get results. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 01:27:15 AM
theyve only been able to afford to build less then 20 of them.  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 24, 2022, 08:39:44 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 23, 2022, 12:20:00 PM
It's okay, Jason, at least you weren't talking about a phalanx of massed Gatling guns!

Well, no, obviously those would be Navy defenses against any paratroop assault on a carrier!

With or without gliders!

:D :arr:

Now part of my brain is perversely curious, though, about whether gliders might make a comeback in airborne assault. After all, they're relatively cheap; they're probably stealthy to electronic sensors; and sure, they're vulnerable to defensive fire, but that was always true, which is why you suppress or remove air defenses and get air supremacy (at least temporarily) before the airmobile troops arrive.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 24, 2022, 08:52:26 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 23, 2022, 12:20:00 PM
I assume that the Battle in the East of Ukraine a bit resembles the Allied breakout from the Normandy beach head in 1944.

Or the Bulge. ;)

The loitering capability, or lack thereof, leads me to ask what the current Russian AWACs functionality is like. My distant impression is that it doesn't even exist, though surely I have to be wrong about that...? But if Russian pilots were going to hang around a modern battlespace, to dominate anti-air assets (whether on the ground or in the air), they'd need that functionality. Maybe even to do proper CAS; especially if the (apparent?) alternative is to listen for cell phone calls from BTG commanders asking for firepower dropped onto nearby Uks. ("Zey are in that apartment complex, comrade! Just hit it with some FFARs, and ve vill be wictory!" cellphone footage of warcrimes intensifies)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 24, 2022, 03:31:29 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 24, 2022, 08:39:44 AM

With or without gliders!

:D :arr:

Now part of my brain is perversely curious, though, about whether gliders might make a comeback in airborne assault. After all, they're relatively cheap; they're probably stealthy to electronic sensors; and sure, they're vulnerable to defensive fire, but that was always true, which is why you suppress or remove air defenses and get air supremacy (at least temporarily) before the airmobile troops arrive.

I think the short answer is that technology killed the glider. The glider itself may be relatively stealthy, but not the beast of burden that has to tow it. They are also slow. There is also the issue of landing locations...you can't just land them anywhere. The assault helicopter is much more flexible for landing zones, faster, can also be stealthy flying nap-of-the-earth (NOE) and can also be armed. 

Still, I did find the study below, conducted in the early 90s, arguing that there was still a place for gliders...based on cost effectiveness of all things.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA240087.pdf (https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA240087.pdf)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on May 24, 2022, 03:53:10 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 24, 2022, 03:31:29 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 24, 2022, 08:39:44 AM

With or without gliders!

:D :arr:

Now part of my brain is perversely curious, though, about whether gliders might make a comeback in airborne assault. After all, they're relatively cheap; they're probably stealthy to electronic sensors; and sure, they're vulnerable to defensive fire, but that was always true, which is why you suppress or remove air defenses and get air supremacy (at least temporarily) before the airmobile troops arrive.

IMHO, One of the reasons for gliders during WWII was that it made 2 things possible: 1) landing heavier pieces of equipment (such as jeeps, light AT guns, etc) and 20 avoided some of the scattering of units.  However, improved cargo aircraft and helicopters, as well  and parachute technology largely eliminated both of these factors, making the glider obsolete.

I think the short answer is that technology killed the glider. The glider itself may be relatively stealthy, but not the beast of burden that has to tow it. They are also slow. There is also the issue of landing locations...you can't just land them anywhere. The assault helicopter is much more flexible for landing zones, faster, can also be stealthy flying nap-of-the-earth (NOE) and can also be armed. 

Still, I did find the study below, conducted in the early 90s, arguing that there was still a place for gliders...based on cost effectiveness of all things.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA240087.pdf (https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA240087.pdf)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 04:40:13 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 24, 2022, 08:52:26 AM

The loitering capability, or lack thereof, leads me to ask what the current Russian AWACs functionality is like. My distant impression is that it doesn't even exist, though surely I have to be wrong about that...? But if Russian pilots were going to hang around a modern battlespace, to dominate anti-air assets (whether on the ground or in the air), they'd need that functionality. Maybe even to do proper CAS; especially if the (apparent?) alternative is to listen for cell phone calls from BTG commanders asking for firepower dropped onto nearby Uks. ("Zey are in that apartment complex, comrade! Just hit it with some FFARs, and ve vill be wictory!" cellphone footage of warcrimes intensifies)

they have their awacs up but are only generating between 200 and 250 sorties a day while mostly staying inside their airspace.
the russians are also generating that number in the last few weeks.  IIRC the first night of the 2nd Gulf War the allies put up over 1700.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 05:24:44 PM
its been a minute but heres the newest map update:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTeybwmXwAIL3lR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1528892442791256064/photo/1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 05:25:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 05:24:44 PM
its been a minute but heres the newest map update:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTeybwmXwAIL3lR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1528892442791256064/photo/1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 24, 2022, 05:29:13 PM
Looks like they're concentrating around Donbass and Luhansk areas.  Guess they've given up on taking Kiev?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 05:31:45 PM
the takeway for the last week is that a small sized operational maneuver group that seems to be very well supplied and equipped is whats getting the job done for the soviets right now.

this is the topography around Popasna:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTiy7MCWAAA4djx.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 05:36:03 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on May 24, 2022, 05:29:13 PM
Looks like they're concentrating around Donbass and Luhansk areas.  Guess they've given up on taking Kiev?

so it seems.  taking most of whats east of the Donets seems to be the plan for a cheap soviet victory.
what I find grimly humorous it that in Iraq and Afghanistan I needed maps to know what was where outside the major cities and towns.
not here, with a library of east front books and maps this is well tread territory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 06:01:39 PM
another brace of maps:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTiKyczX0AALPS0?format=jpg&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTiEua8WUAE-g0I?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTiE4tRXoAUnSjt?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTiE-1rXwAMSFCG?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTiFG_bXoAAo_9b?format=jpg&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTiGMdmXwAMbGT1?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 24, 2022, 06:04:28 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on May 24, 2022, 05:29:13 PM
Looks like they're concentrating around Donbass and Luhansk areas.  Guess they've given up on taking Kiev?

Nyet, comrade!  You see, Kiev was just a brilliant feint.  In a master stroke of ingenuity Putin sent thousands of Russian soldiers to their deaths not because he wanted to actually take Kiev and make Ukraine capitulate, but to trick the West into believing Kiev was the real goal!  Any day now the real attack will come and the elite cossack bear-riding paratroopers Putin has kept in reserve will finally be unleashed and the war will be over in days.  Just you wait!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 06:10:24 PM
well sunshine, that real attack is going on right now.
all joking aside, the Ukraine Army has a lot of front to cover and they just cant rush all hands towards the Donbass.
I think they started doing well around Kiev and then the soviets learned a few things, husbanded some forces and made an OMG and then launched it on a limited axis due west.
and its working.
the UA has had to divert forces from Kharkov to shore up lines further to the east and thats stalled out their own offensive.
and it happened just as the UA recrossed the Donets!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 24, 2022, 06:19:16 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on May 24, 2022, 06:04:28 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on May 24, 2022, 05:29:13 PM
Looks like they're concentrating around Donbass and Luhansk areas.  Guess they've given up on taking Kiev?

Nyet, comrade!  You see, Kiev was just a brilliant feint.  In a master stroke of ingenuity Putin sent thousands of Russian soldiers to their deaths not because he wanted to actually take Kiev and make Ukraine capitulate, but to trick the West into believing Kiev was the real goal!  Any day now the real attack will come and the elite cossack bear-riding paratroopers Putin has kept in reserve will finally be unleashed and the war will be over in days.  Just you wait!

Oh stop, you're making me blush!   :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 24, 2022, 06:20:48 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 06:10:24 PM
...
and it happened just as the UA recrossed the Donets!

Ok the inner geek in me has to comment that this sounds like something out of Operation Barbarossa.   ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 24, 2022, 06:31:13 PM
think more post Kursk and the UA are playing the Germans.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 24, 2022, 06:35:06 PM
Are the Russians trying to trap the bulk of the eastern Ukrainian Army in a Cherkassy-type pocket?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on May 24, 2022, 07:31:13 PM
Retired Russian Gen. Botashev allegedly shot down in Ukraine (https://www.foxnews.com/world/retired-russian-gen-botashev-shot-down-in-ukraine-report)

I guess he is now permanently retired.  :-"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 24, 2022, 07:54:56 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 24, 2022, 06:35:06 PM
Are the Russians trying to trap the bulk of the eastern Ukrainian Army in a Cherkassy-type pocket?

I wanna party with you man!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 24, 2022, 09:14:51 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 24, 2022, 06:35:06 PM
Are the Russians trying to trap the bulk of the eastern Ukrainian Army in a Cherkassy-type pocket?

I get the sense that possibly one of the most important battles of the war is happening right now in and around Severodonetsk.

In other news, I saw a flurry of articles in the British press that the UK Navy was looking at plans to escort grain ships in the Crimea. Within the last few hours the UK is officially denying the story.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 24, 2022, 09:22:46 PM
^Really? That would add a new level to this war. I don't think the Russians would attack British ships but I never thought the world would be at this point in the first place.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on May 24, 2022, 09:59:32 PM
Quote from: steve58 on May 24, 2022, 07:31:13 PM
Retired Russian Gen. Botashev allegedly shot down in Ukraine (https://www.foxnews.com/world/retired-russian-gen-botashev-shot-down-in-ukraine-report)

I guess he is now permanently retired.  :-"

I saw what you did there :P
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 25, 2022, 12:07:24 AM
and none of you ppl hit the point that wagner has combat aircraft?
kind of removes the idea that its a private group, not that that was already glaringly obvious.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 25, 2022, 12:13:58 AM
this is a great read!

https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1529191305665990656/photo/1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 25, 2022, 07:42:39 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 25, 2022, 12:07:24 AM
and none of you ppl hit the point that wagner has combat aircraft?
kind of removes the idea that its a private group, not that that was already glaringly obvious.

"If Botashev were a member of Wagner, it might not be the first time someone from that conglomerate of private contractors working for the Russian military crashed a Russian warplane.

"In 2020, a video of a Wagner pilot potentially emerging from a crashed Russian fighter jet. U.S. Africa Command has said that Wagner pilots have flown Su-24 Fencers as well as MiG-29 Fulcrums. You can read more about that here."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/63-year-old-retired-russian-fighter-pilot-shot-down-in-su-25-over-ukraine/ar-AAXG8bI?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=ea3adbe5f2294b8783e9530fc0eb1498

So there has been suspicion of this for a while already. Though Botashev hasn't been confirmed as flying for Wagner yet.

Comparisons to Maverick from the Top Gun duology are flying around, naturally.

(Pun not originally intended.)

It says something if the Russians are so desperate as to put a retired 60+ general into a tough ground-attack craft for action (via Wagner or otherwise).

Quote from: steve58 on May 24, 2022, 07:31:13 PM
Retired Russian Gen. Botashev allegedly shot down in Ukraine (https://www.foxnews.com/world/retired-russian-gen-botashev-shot-down-in-ukraine-report)

I guess he is now permanently retired.  :-"

"Shame he won't be at the barbeque.
"Then again I guess he is the barbeque.
"Tell your mama not to burn my shoes.
"Technically my lies are prob'ly true."

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 25, 2022, 07:52:11 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 25, 2022, 12:13:58 AM
this is a great read!

https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1529191305665990656/photo/1

Oh, that was good! I guess we couldn't really expect the Rusks to stay dumb forever, without learning anything.  :buck2:

Some hard choices for the Uks now. But, as Helin says, "In the open terrain, Russia needs to capture villages to find cover and concealment for their troops, and sometimes it feels that capturing even smallish settlements is like drinking tar for the Russians."  \m/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 25, 2022, 09:20:11 AM
Hmm...from CNN:

**

Hungary's reelected Prime Minister Viktor Orban will continue to rule by decree after a state of emergency was declared at midnight due to the fact that one of the country's neighbors -- Ukraine -- is in a state of war.

"We have seen that the war and sanctions from Brussels have brought about a great economic upheaval and drastic price rises. The world is on the brink of an economic crisis. Hungary has to stay out of this war and has to protect the financial security of families," Orban said.
The Hungarian government argues that "the government needs to be able to make decisions and act swiftly. The state of emergency, similarly to that introduced during the pandemic, will make it possible for the government to react quickly."

Orban said the decree was reinstated to use "all methods at its disposal" to protect Hungary and Hungarians.

The current state of emergency, which allows Orban to disable some laws and push through emergency measures by decree, was set to expire at the end of May. It had been introduced in the spring of 2020 at the start of the coronavirus-pandemic.

Orban and his Fidesz party were reelected in April despite his historically pro-Kremlin positions and close relationship with Putin. The war there upended the contest, which had been focused mostly on domestic issues before the invasion began on February 24.

Orban's relationship with Kyiv has deteriorated over the years. He has impeded the country's attempts to form closer relations with NATO, and has clashed with successive governments in Kyiv.

**
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 25, 2022, 09:54:31 AM
Within 48 hours, Russia will lose (at least a significant amount of) its ability to pay its loans, and will start defaulting on its debts.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-loses-its-default-defense-48-hours-what-that-means-1709884

"The only way Russia has managed to avoid defaulting until now has been thanks to a special U.S. Treasury license, which allowed international bond holders to still receive payments from Moscow.

"So far, Russia has managed to meet all its payment obligations but on May 25 [today, their time] the U.S. Treasury waiver formally expired, leaving Moscow unable to process such transactions. The U.S. Treasury has made it clear they do not intend to renew it."

This won't affect Western investors (because by now they've had time to get used to Russia defaulting and should have adjusted accordingly) as much as Asian investors (e.g. Iran and China): it's a backdoor way of forcing them to impose something like their own economic sanctions on Russia.

More at the Newsweek article.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 25, 2022, 10:05:31 AM
Meanwhile, be watching for Swan Lake from Soviet historically-Soviet-related media:

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-dead-pay-attention-when-russia-starts-broadcasting-swan-lake-1707162

They've gotten into a habit of broadcasting Swan Lake to buy time on how to position announcements of the deaths of leaders or regime changes, since back as far as the early 80s (and Brezhnev's passing), but in recent decades the broadcasts have also morphed into being political protests against the state.

So if Putin leaves office suddenly for any reason, Russian media broadcasts of Swan Lake will almost certainly spike dramatically -- very probably including Ukraine (as a means of celebrating his downfall).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 25, 2022, 10:10:11 AM
Downfall you say?

(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51W45N1877L._SY445_.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 25, 2022, 10:25:00 AM
Begin humorous observation

Consider this, and I've got you in mind al. 

Don't forget how senator Palpatine used war emergency powers to 'protect' democracy before turning the Republic into the 1st Galactic Empire. 

Did George Lucas forsee something when he made the prequels?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 25, 2022, 10:36:22 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 24, 2022, 09:14:51 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 24, 2022, 06:35:06 PM
Are the Russians trying to trap the bulk of the eastern Ukrainian Army in a Cherkassy-type pocket?

I get the sense that possibly one of the most important battles of the war is happening right now in and around Severodonetsk.

In other news, I saw a flurry of articles in the British press that the UK Navy was looking at plans to escort grain ships in the Crimea. Within the last few hours the UK is officially denying the story.

This.

If Putin is able to secure Severedonetsk and Lysychansks (the city that sits on the eastern bank of the Donets River), I think it gives him the chance to settle into a grisly stalemate where he declares the Donbas secure.  At that point, he just has to hold onto occupied territory while inflicting massive humanitarian casualties on the Ukrainians until they're willing to come to the bargaining table and cede some territory to the Russians.

Long term, I think that leaves Putin's reign unchallenged in Russia.  The Russian Army has received a horrific bloody nose, but I don't think that will matter to Putin or most of his supporters.  Putin seems like the type who can happily water his gardens with the blood of his soldiers if he likes the way it makes his tulips grow. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 25, 2022, 10:37:48 AM
Yesterday (24th), the head of the Russian state-controlled network RT declared that either Russia achieves its goal of completely destroying Ukraine (i.e. as a national government), or else all of humanity suffers catastrophe when Russia launches a nuclear war.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-says-nuclear-war-only-alternative-russia-victory-ukraine-1709539

Normally this could be side-eyed as a journalist mouthing off for the views, but of course RT is a Russian state propaganda outlet, and Ms. Semonyan is its chief, so there's a very good chance she's under orders to say this.

This kind of adds some clarity to the fuzzy, shifting rationales for the war, most recently going back today (in an actual Kremlin statement) to "the complete de-Nazification" of Ukraine, with Russia being on no timetable to achieve this goal.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-official-tells-russian-newspaper-when-ukraine-war-will-end/ar-AAXFd3z?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1ccf4c150b6d46aa9f3346442c594950

(Also a Newsweek article, btw, via MSN.)

The reason the rationales keep shifting around, is that the overarching rationale has always been to destroy the Ukraine government, and the other things are just political promotions for why that government must be destroyed. This also fits the theory about the plan for the full-court press opening the war, despite being gravely unsupported logstically: Putin and his team thought the government would collapse almost immediately with few Russian losses and actually little damage to the nation and its people.

At what point short of nuclear war does Russia (meaning Putin's government) get recognized as the common enemy of the world, and treated as such? -- ready to inflict catastrophe on the world unless they get to take over anyone they want??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 25, 2022, 12:08:45 PM
If you all need me, I'll be in my bunker.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 25, 2022, 02:18:06 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 25, 2022, 10:37:48 AM

At what point short of nuclear war does Russia (meaning Putin's government) get recognized as the common enemy of the world, and treated as such? -- ready to inflict catastrophe on the world unless they get to take over anyone they want??

  I think that has been understood by most of Europe since day one.  The tricky thing is stopping and turning back Russia without triggering economic disaster or a war that goes out of control.
So far the Russians have played right into this by beating on Ukraine and threatening everybody.  The real trick will be getting Russia to leave Ukraine...which I think will be Surprisingly soon due to
economic pressure.  I suspect the Russians will lose everything including the Crimea in less than a year because the cost of being China's colony will be pretty painful (ie selling discount oil to China will be
a shocking loss of economic potential for Russia -- China has no oil and oil is all Russia has to sell at the moment -- its going to be a multi-trillion dollar nightmare for Russia very soon).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 25, 2022, 02:38:30 PM
^I believe that.  China is very crafty indeed. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 25, 2022, 02:42:29 PM
Russia also has vast quantities of natural gas and grains.  It will be tough to keep sanctions up in 6 months as winter approaches and food shortages change people's mind about continuing the current approach.  Ukraine needs to kick Russia out by end of summer or there will be strong pressure from west to settle for status quo.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 25, 2022, 03:07:14 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on May 25, 2022, 02:42:29 PM
Russia also has vast quantities of natural gas and grains.  It will be tough to keep sanctions up in 6 months as winter approaches and food shortages change people's mind about continuing the current approach.  Ukraine needs to kick Russia out by end of summer or there will be strong pressure from west to settle for status quo.

  The same problems can run the other way: Russia can't sell that stuff and the West might as well aim at breaking Russia as fast as possible to avoid more war and avoid economic disaster.  The Russians are
realistically out of options -- which is why they keep saying they are going to nuke something.  If they had any other workable threats they would be using those.  But no...nothing left but nukes or
getting out of Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 25, 2022, 03:26:14 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on May 25, 2022, 12:08:45 PM
If you all need me, I'll be in my bunker.  :hide:

With Vera...?

{/Fireflyjoke}
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 25, 2022, 04:36:09 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 25, 2022, 09:20:11 AM
Hmm...from CNN:

**

Hungary's reelected Prime Minister Viktor Orban will continue to rule by decree after a state of emergency was declared at midnight due to the fact that one of the country's neighbors -- Ukraine -- is in a state of war.

"We have seen that the war and sanctions from Brussels have brought about a great economic upheaval and drastic price rises. The world is on the brink of an economic crisis. Hungary has to stay out of this war and has to protect the financial security of families," Orban said.
The Hungarian government argues that "the government needs to be able to make decisions and act swiftly. The state of emergency, similarly to that introduced during the pandemic, will make it possible for the government to react quickly."

Orban said the decree was reinstated to use "all methods at its disposal" to protect Hungary and Hungarians.

The current state of emergency, which allows Orban to disable some laws and push through emergency measures by decree, was set to expire at the end of May. It had been introduced in the spring of 2020 at the start of the coronavirus-pandemic.

Orban and his Fidesz party were reelected in April despite his historically pro-Kremlin positions and close relationship with Putin. The war there upended the contest, which had been focused mostly on domestic issues before the invasion began on February 24.

Orban's relationship with Kyiv has deteriorated over the years. He has impeded the country's attempts to form closer relations with NATO, and has clashed with successive governments in Kyiv.

**

Who let this guy into NATO?

To paraphrase FDR who was talking about another wanna-be-dictator...  'Orban may be a son-of-a-b@tch, but he's our son-of-a-b@tch.'

I'm guessing Orban will 'find it necessary' to suspend elections 'until the danger is over.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 25, 2022, 04:57:57 PM
I'll be curious to see how long the current embargo on Russia lasts.  I'm even more curious to see if Western Europe ever gets to a full embargo of Russian energy.  The lynchpin here is German reliance on Russian natural gas.

Germany's done an excellent job of reducing their fossil fuel consumption in the last 20 years.  They've certainly beat the US in that regard.  Unfortunately, when it comes to electrical generation, they have a heavier reliance than any other Western European country on Russian natural gas.  Why is that a problem?

Oil moves around the world by tankers, which can be easily rerouted.  Coal moves around the world in rail cars (and less often boats), which can also be rerouted with only modest disruption.  Gas moves most frequently by pipelines, which takes much more time and more money to build or rebuild.  So the German dependence on Russian gas is more expensive to break.  If the Germans are willing/able to do that, the Russians are in deep shit and will quickly see what's left of their economy go down the drain. 

That would be more economic pain than the Germans have been willing to shoulder since the end of WW II.

In the absence of that, it'll be curious to see if Russia makes an easing of embargoes one of the preconditions for peace in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on May 25, 2022, 05:07:10 PM
I have to believe the Russians having concentrated and advancing with a slow grind are doing so because it allows them to form almost a continuous line and protect those lines of supply from foray's by Ukranian forces, something they didn't do when they launched their invasion and attacks towards Kyiv.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 25, 2022, 07:26:01 PM
Easing or elimination of embargoes on Russia have to be part of any negotiation, if/when negotiations start. Russia wouldn't bother otherwise.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 25, 2022, 07:30:08 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 25, 2022, 04:57:57 PM
I'll be curious to see how long the current embargo on Russia lasts.  I'm even more curious to see if Western Europe ever gets to a full embargo of Russian energy.  The lynchpin here is German reliance on Russian natural gas.

Germany's done an excellent job of reducing their fossil fuel consumption in the last 20 years.  They've certainly beat the US in that regard.  Unfortunately, when it comes to electrical generation, they have a heavier reliance than any other Western European country on Russian natural gas.  Why is that a problem?

Oil moves around the world by tankers, which can be easily rerouted.  Coal moves around the world in rail cars (and less often boats), which can also be rerouted with only modest disruption.  Gas moves most frequently by pipelines, which takes much more time and more money to build or rebuild.  So the German dependence on Russian gas is more expensive to break.  If the Germans are willing/able to do that, the Russians are in deep shit and will quickly see what's left of their economy go down the drain. 

That would be more economic pain than the Germans have been willing to shoulder since the end of WW II.

In the absence of that, it'll be curious to see if Russia makes an easing of embargoes one of the preconditions for peace in Ukraine.

  What's odd is that there is an easy solution for Europe and its energy problems: defeat Russia and make them quit threatening the world.  All this messing with things can be stopped by defeating
Russia.  I'm sure that is becoming clearer and clearer even to the Germans.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 25, 2022, 07:49:48 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTm0_5xWQAECZDh?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 25, 2022, 09:33:17 PM
The T-62. It's baaaackkk!!!!!!

According to article in Forbes:

"This week videos and photos circulated on social media confirming the Ukrainian general staff's claim. Old T-62s indeed are making their way via train to the railhead in Russian-occupied Melitopol in southern Ukraine."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-russian-army-is-running-out-of-tanks-for-the-war-in-ukraine-these-60-year-old-t-62s-are-proof/ar-AAXIBAJ?ocid=BingNewsSearch (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-russian-army-is-running-out-of-tanks-for-the-war-in-ukraine-these-60-year-old-t-62s-are-proof/ar-AAXIBAJ?ocid=BingNewsSearch)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 25, 2022, 10:00:15 PM
Yes Jason, definitely with Vera.  O0  Along with bread, baloney, milk, and plenty of TP. And old re-runs of Rat Patrol to keep me occupied.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 26, 2022, 09:43:50 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 25, 2022, 09:33:17 PM
The T-62. It's baaaackkk!!!!!!

60 year old retired vets, and T-62s, go together like vodka and the smell of desperation. In this case.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 26, 2022, 10:34:24 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 26, 2022, 09:43:50 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 25, 2022, 09:33:17 PM
The T-62. It's baaaackkk!!!!!!

60 year old retired vets, and T-62s, go together like vodka and the smell of desperation. In this case.

This is all as planned.

- take Kiev and win on day 3
- retreat, take the east and win in month 3
- introduce T-62s in month 4. 
- go on TV and explain that the lower the number the better the tank.   Ensure the people know that you still have T-34s in reserve.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 26, 2022, 11:19:24 AM
'Germany will equip it's army so it's ready at 'all times' to defend itself 'under the new conditions' dictated by Russia.'
-Olaf Scholz, German President
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 26, 2022, 11:54:36 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on May 26, 2022, 10:34:24 AM
- go on TV and explain that the lower the number the better the tank.   Ensure the people know that you still have T-34s in reserve.

Don't forget the T-55s!!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 26, 2022, 12:05:06 PM
Ukraine admits fight in the East is not going well...  :( :o

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-gains-upper-hand-as-ukraine-military-admits-difficult-situation/ar-AAXLmZa?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=834d87cccee049b5b7090216733f5794 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-gains-upper-hand-as-ukraine-military-admits-difficult-situation/ar-AAXLmZa?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=834d87cccee049b5b7090216733f5794)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 26, 2022, 12:11:21 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 26, 2022, 11:19:24 AM
'Germany will equip it's army so it's ready at 'all times' to defend itself 'under the new conditions' dictated by Russia.'
-Olaf Scholz, German President

Panzerlied intensifies

It's super-effective
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 26, 2022, 12:16:30 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 26, 2022, 12:05:06 PM
Ukraine admits fight in the East is not going well...  :( :o

So, I wonder if they consider the T-60s bad news or good news...

Edited to add: Shamanov would apparently call it bad news, if the "denazification" and "demilitarization" of the Ukraine is expected to last 5 to 10 years.

Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 26, 2022, 11:54:36 AM
Don't forget the T-55s!!!

Deploy the T-28 Steel Fortresses! (Actually, a working T-35 Land Battleship still exists.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 26, 2022, 12:48:24 PM
^Haha!  Steel Fortress.  Would you believe I have firsthand experience in using it in urban combat?  LOL
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 26, 2022, 12:57:50 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on May 26, 2022, 12:48:24 PM
^Haha!  Steel Fortress.  Would you believe I have firsthand experience in using it in urban combat?  LOL

That probably makes you more trained and ready for duty than the majority of the actual deployed Russians  :-"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 26, 2022, 01:00:31 PM
^I'm a Heroes & Generals trained soldier.  Yeah, you're probably right.   ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 26, 2022, 01:16:22 PM
Armored trains can't be that far off.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 26, 2022, 01:21:43 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 26, 2022, 12:05:06 PM
Ukraine admits fight in the East is not going well...  :( :o


   The Russians are battering their way forward.  One would guess they will get to some point soon and ask for a ceasefire.  In their minds, this will put Ukraine on the spot since
at that point, it will be up to the Ukrainians to continue the war (and thus "be responsible for it")  or not.  The Ukrainians have already said they will continue and I suspect by the
time the Russians stop, the West will see that they can break the Russians and get everything without negotiating too much.  The Russians will be thinking that they can "negotiate" forever
while sitting in as much of the Ukraine as they care to take (probably not much more at this point).  However, I doubt that this will work out as the Russians hope since it is easy to
see that waiting for Russia to give up under pressure is likely to solve more problems than letting them sit in whatever territory they have.  The really crucial point -- as the Ukrainians
keep pointing out -- is that Ukraine needs massive guarantees that the Russians aren't going to just start the war all over again when they feel like it.  So crushing Russia as fast as
possible is the only reasonable answer for everyone (even the Russians really).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 26, 2022, 02:30:33 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on May 26, 2022, 12:48:24 PM
^Haha!  Steel Fortress.  Would you believe I have firsthand experience in using it in urban combat?  LOL

You and me both, pal! (We teamed up together with it sometimes in H&G.)

Step 1: get more players to man the guns somehow.
Step 2: ?
Step 3: win.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 26, 2022, 03:01:55 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 26, 2022, 01:21:43 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 26, 2022, 12:05:06 PM
Ukraine admits fight in the East is not going well...  :( :o


   The Russians are battering their way forward.  One would guess they will get to some point soon and ask for a ceasefire.  In their minds, this will put Ukraine on the spot since
at that point, it will be up to the Ukrainians to continue the war (and thus "be responsible for it")  or not.  The Ukrainians have already said they will continue and I suspect by the
time the Russians stop, the West will see that they can break the Russians and get everything without negotiating too much.  The Russians will be thinking that they can "negotiate" forever
while sitting in as much of the Ukraine as they care to take (probably not much more at this point).  However, I doubt that this will work out as the Russians hope since it is easy to
see that waiting for Russia to give up under pressure is likely to solve more problems than letting them sit in whatever territory they have.  The really crucial point -- as the Ukrainians
keep pointing out -- is that Ukraine needs massive guarantees that the Russians aren't going to just start the war all over again when they feel like it.  So crushing Russia as fast as
possible is the only reasonable answer for everyone (even the Russians really).

Pretty much on target.  I'd only add one medium course that seems increasingly likely and increasingly bleak:  If Russia secures enough ground, they will be willing to negotiate (as you say), but they'll start out insisting on terms favorable to them.  In the meantime, they have the option of continuing to deploy copious firepower against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.  If it becomes a race between Western sanctions extinguishing the Russians' will to fight versus Russian artillery extinguishing the Ukrainian's will to fight, the humanitarian cost to the people of Ukraine will be huge, no matter how it all ends.

What will the West do when Putin demands "We'll only stop shelling Ukrainian civilians when you ease your sanctions as part of this ceasefire we're negotiating with Ukraine?"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 26, 2022, 03:55:33 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 26, 2022, 03:01:55 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on May 26, 2022, 01:21:43 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 26, 2022, 12:05:06 PM
Ukraine admits fight in the East is not going well...  :( :o


   The Russians are battering their way forward.  One would guess they will get to some point soon and ask for a ceasefire.  In their minds, this will put Ukraine on the spot since
at that point, it will be up to the Ukrainians to continue the war (and thus "be responsible for it")  or not.  The Ukrainians have already said they will continue and I suspect by the
time the Russians stop, the West will see that they can break the Russians and get everything without negotiating too much.  The Russians will be thinking that they can "negotiate" forever
while sitting in as much of the Ukraine as they care to take (probably not much more at this point).  However, I doubt that this will work out as the Russians hope since it is easy to
see that waiting for Russia to give up under pressure is likely to solve more problems than letting them sit in whatever territory they have.  The really crucial point -- as the Ukrainians
keep pointing out -- is that Ukraine needs massive guarantees that the Russians aren't going to just start the war all over again when they feel like it.  So crushing Russia as fast as
possible is the only reasonable answer for everyone (even the Russians really).

Pretty much on target.  I'd only add one medium course that seems increasingly likely and increasingly bleak:  If Russia secures enough ground, they will be willing to negotiate (as you say), but they'll start out insisting on terms favorable to them.  In the meantime, they have the option of continuing to deploy copious firepower against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.  If it becomes a race between Western sanctions extinguishing the Russians' will to fight versus Russian artillery extinguishing the Ukrainian's will to fight, the humanitarian cost to the people of Ukraine will be huge, no matter how it all ends.

What will the West do when Putin demands "We'll only stop shelling Ukrainian civilians when you ease your sanctions as part of this ceasefire we're negotiating with Ukraine?"

  Well, in some ways the time for Putin saying he'll stop is long gone as a negotiating point since the Ukrainians have been getting pounded on one way or another since 2014.  So Putin should have quit
while he was ahead before he attacked on Feb 24.  Now the Ukrainians feel they have no choice but to fight until the Russians leave and Ukraine gets massive guarantees that the Russians
will not be able to renew the war at a time of their own choosing.  The Russians are really counting on a stalemate such as they had before they attacked in February.  Can the Ukrainians afford a stalemate
again?  I suspect they don't see that as a workable solution.  Can the Russians afford to pretend they can restore the stalemate?  And blame the continuing war on Ukraine?  Maybe for a while...but
I suspect the scale of economic loss will be clearly much greater for Russia and they will back off surprisingly soon -- by October 2022 even.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 26, 2022, 05:49:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 26, 2022, 01:16:22 PM
Armored trains can't be that far off.

russia has been using one since day 1 of this war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 27, 2022, 07:19:30 AM
Most recent news about the train seems to be last Wednesday, May 18th?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-armoured-train-blown-up-occupied-ukraine-territorial-defence-2022-05-18/

Note that the train doesn't seem to have been actually blown up, despite Ukraine's version of Pravda announcing that first.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 08:44:00 AM
This armored Russian train has/had armament?? I thought it was just a transport train that was, you know...armored.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 27, 2022, 08:58:11 AM
Yeah, I don't know that it's meant to be used as a mobile offensive support weapon.


Meanwhile, Reuters posted a short article this morning (link via MSN), where President Zelenskiy acknowledged that although Putin doesn't seem ready for serious peace talks, the Ukrainians will have to face the reality of their situation and, as much as they don't want to do it, talk with him eventually to end the war.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-needs-to-face-reality-and-talk-to-putin-zelenskiy/ar-AAXMLZr?ocid=msedgntphdr&cvid=4046f84219f14b83b46ab177db4e325f

That article also has a video from (apparently?) the same speech, where Z says plenty of powerful nations could have shut all this down whenever they wanted but preferred to flirt with Putin instead.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 09:00:43 AM
Damn, Zelensky really does have cajones of brass.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 27, 2022, 10:00:45 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 27, 2022, 08:58:11 AM

That article also has a video from (apparently?) the same speech, where Z says plenty of powerful nations could have shut all this down whenever they wanted but preferred to flirt with Putin instead.

    Nobody knew that the Russians were going to trap themselves into this.  It's pretty unbelievable how Russia managed to do all the wrong things at precisely the wrong time.
Their amazingly crappy timing just keeps putting an amazingly crappy icing on on all the amazingly crappy stunts they have pulled.  Given that nobody could have foreseen what an
epic shit-show the Russians have managed to get themselves trapped into -- well its no wonder it is taking a while for everybody to figure out that just absolutely defeating the Russians
may be by far the simplest answer to the whole mess (even for the Russians).  There's a little bit of tricky stuff to do to pay off Turkey and China to get this all fixed up -- but I think
total defeat for Russia is looking like the only sensible answer to whatever it is the Russians think they are doing.
   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 10:11:55 AM
^Well that did happen with Germany after the First World War and that didn't work. And there were no nukes involved. I think it's more delicate than that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 27, 2022, 10:20:33 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 10:11:55 AM
^Well that did happen with Germany after the First World War and that didn't work. And there were no nukes involved. I think it's more delicate than that.

  It worked fine with Japan (though nukes were involved) at the end of WWII.  It worked fine with Vichy France, Finland (twice), Germany and Italy and Hungry and Bulgaria
and Roumania at the end of WWII.  I think the Russians would be happy to leave Ukraine completely and have trade go back to normal and get something democratic going.
It's likely to be Turkey and China that turn out to be negotiating some tough things with everybody -- not Russia -- they are done.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 27, 2022, 10:22:16 AM
April: Russia is marketing this war as some kind of existential crisis for its survival, bwa ha ha ha ha!  :DD

May: At this point, the best thing for Russia would be the absolute and total defeat of Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 10:23:36 AM
I don't think the Russians would be happy to leave Ukraine completely. If so, why haven't they yet and why did they go in the first place??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 27, 2022, 10:26:21 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 09:00:43 AM
Damn, Zelensky really does have cajones of brass.

Yeah, I don't think he's right about how everything could have been solved already by going into WW3 against Russia (aka plenty of powerful nations getting involved in the fighting), but I can understand and sympathize with the chutzpah, especially if he thinks he's being backed into a corner where he'll have to negotiate a settled peace after all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 10:30:23 AM
Ultimately he will have to negotiate but it sucks it's going to have to be with Putin. Can you imagine the tension in that room?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 27, 2022, 10:38:06 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 10:23:36 AM
I don't think the Russians would be happy to leave Ukraine completely. If so, why haven't they yet and why did they go in the first place??

  Since the whole thing was pointless from the beginning, why wouldn't they be happy to leave?  Why did they go in the first place?  Pure idiocy maybe?  What on earth are they doing in
Moldova?  Is there some point to that?  I would think they would be happy to forget the whole mess like all of their fellow "republics" (except Belarus and Chechenya).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 10:42:07 AM
It's totally up to Putin and Russia - they could end this now, they could have ended it five minutes after they started it, they could have not done it at all...but they haven't/didn't.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 27, 2022, 11:21:20 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 10:30:23 AM
Ultimately he will have to negotiate but it sucks it's going to have to be with Putin. Can you imagine the tension in that room?

   Is Putin up to this kind of thing?  Zelensky has all the cards and he knows it.  Look at what Z has: 1) he no longer cares if he's in NATO since Ukraine can beat Russian any old time now
2) He can actually say to the Russians -- get out or the war goes on...
IT doesn't matter where the Russians get to...they are falling apart a lot faster than the Ukrainians 3) and -- best of all -- he knows the Russians are (as usual) not going to respond sensibly until it is
way too late.  The Russians should have negotiated before they pulled out up north -- but no, then before they started the attack in the Donbas -- but no, then right now when it looks like they can
dig in but hold on -- but no.  Apparently, the Russians are going to wait until total disaster on all fronts is already happening in ways that are clear to everyone.  And then what?  Some minor face-saving
concessions and the message from the Ukaine -- hey attack again any time, this time we'll take big chunks of Russia and since we aren't in NATO -- who will stop us?  The whole NATO thing is irrelevant if
Ukraine can defeat Russia next time Russia attacks.
 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 11:24:19 AM
^Zelensky is quote a few posts above here that things are not looking good long-term in the east of Ukraine. I don't like it either, and Putin's probably insanity makes anything, like the use of nukes, possible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 27, 2022, 01:08:39 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 11:24:19 AM
^Zelensky is quote a few posts above here that things are not looking good long-term in the east of Ukraine. I don't like it either, and Putin's probably insanity makes anything, like the use of nukes, possible.

  Since Putin knows he has gotten about as far as he can and Zelensky knows Putin knows that, Zelensky's double message reads: to Putin "We know you aren't going to talk until it is too late, but look;
I'm saying we'll talk because we know you won't but it will put the continuation of the war back in your court."  To the West: "Arm us and we will finish this before Putin can decide to talk -- because (as we all know ) the's not going to until it is too late for him."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 27, 2022, 01:47:50 PM
115 members of Russia's "national guard" (aka Putin's private army) were sacked for refusing to fight in Ukraine.  From what I understand, these guys are supposed to be some of the most professional troops in Russia's army, so that seems to send a pretty clear sign that news is spreading and morale is in the gutter across the board.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/27/115-russian-national-guard-soldiers-sacked-for-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 27, 2022, 02:34:10 PM
^Good, maybe this is the beginning of something more substantial in the Russian military.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 27, 2022, 02:51:05 PM
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/politics/us-long-range-rockets-ukraine-mlrs/index.html

The administration is leaning toward sending the systems as part of a larger package of military and security assistance to Ukraine, which could be announced as soon as next week.

Senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have pleaded in recent weeks for the US and its allies to provide the Multiple Launch Rocket System, or MLRS.
The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a gamechanger in their war against Russia.

Another system Ukraine has asked for is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, a lighter wheeled system capable of firing many of the same types of ammunition as MLRS.

On Friday, after CNN first reported the news, Russians warned that the United States will "cross a red line" if it supplies the systems to Ukraine.

The UK is also still deciding whether to send the systems, two officials told CNN, and would like to do so in conjunction with the US.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on May 27, 2022, 02:55:00 PM
Russia deploying T-62 tanks (https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-forced-deploy-50-year-old-t-62-tanks-ukraine-1000-tanks-destroyed).  Does this count as scrapping the bottom of the barrel?  :-\
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 27, 2022, 04:59:48 PM
from what Ive read the T-62 are going to backfill the separatist militaries.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 28, 2022, 11:04:37 PM
May be propaganda, but Ukrainian intelligence is all but certain Putin has cancer. 


"But it's not worth hoping that Putin will die tomorrow. He still has at least a few years left. Whether we like it or not, that's the truth."

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/putin-cancer-ukraine-intelligence-chief-russia-164929127.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 29, 2022, 01:33:31 AM
I really hope thats plural.
stomach and rectal cancer would be a nice combination.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 29, 2022, 03:17:00 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FT7NKQhX0AAF3db?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 29, 2022, 07:08:26 PM
That article on the last page also mentioned an attempt on Putin's life two months ago...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 29, 2022, 08:14:14 PM
Holy font-size, Batman!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 30, 2022, 12:05:06 PM
Font-size is acceptable to these eyes. ....wait, why don't we have an 'old' smiley yet?!?

I'm more curious about the analysis source. Is there more where that came from? (Seems like good analysis, just curious.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on May 30, 2022, 01:28:16 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 30, 2022, 12:05:06 PM
Font-size is acceptable to these eyes. ....wait, why don't we have an 'old' smiley yet?!?

I'm more curious about the analysis source. Is there more where that came from? (Seems like good analysis, just curious.)

Jason-The article you asked about is from the ISW webpage.  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28.  It is a good site. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 30, 2022, 03:27:35 PM
(https://i.redd.it/h9k2xrtepl291.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on May 30, 2022, 03:44:53 PM
Sounds like it's crazytown on the Russian side.

Oh no. :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 30, 2022, 04:40:35 PM
The Russians must be maintaining some kind of battlefield fear/discipline of their own troops with the Spetznaz mentioned and 'political officers.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on May 30, 2022, 04:55:49 PM
There's a whole YT channel of intercepted Russian conversations, no commentary or anything, just subtitles:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqo741VN2OBPQAc5hR4oKPg
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 31, 2022, 12:49:00 AM
I'm assuming that nobody really has any idea how Russian and Ukrainian casualties compare in East Ukraine?  We hear lots of anecdotal evidence of poor Russian morale.  Are we still seeing signs of that in the Russian conduct of war?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on May 31, 2022, 06:54:47 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 31, 2022, 12:49:00 AM
I'm assuming that nobody really has any idea how Russian and Ukrainian casualties compare in East Ukraine?  We hear lots of anecdotal evidence of poor Russian morale.  Are we still seeing signs of that in the Russian conduct of war?

Yes.

Quote

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30

May 30, 3:30pm ET

Mounting casualties among Russian junior officers will likely further degrade Russian capabilities and lead to further morale breakdowns. The UK Ministry of Defense stated on May 30 that Russian forces have suffered devastating losses amongst mid and junior ranking officers. The UK MoD reported that battalion and brigade level officers continue to deploy forwards and into harm's way—rather than commanding from rear areas and delegating to lower-ranking officers—due to senior Russian officers holding them to an "uncompromising level of responsibility" for their units.[1] The British Defense Ministry further reported that junior officers are in charge of low-level tactical operations due to a lack of professionalism and modernization within the Russian Armed Forces and that the continued losses of these junior officers will complicate command and control efforts, particularly in Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) cobbled together from the survivors of multiple other units.[2] ISW previously assessed that continued demoralization and poor command and control among Russian forces could present Ukrainian forces opportunities to conduct prudent counteroffensives, particularly as the Russian military continues to pour resources into the battle of Severodonetsk at the cost of other lines of effort.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 31, 2022, 07:29:55 AM
I have some suspicions from the terms used that that intercept is really legit, though it does conform to the idea mentioned later in JH's report that high-level commanders are going forward to be 'uncompromisingly responsible' for frontline action. (A Colonel-General should be in command of a corps, not of a company, or even of a battalion. But they might be in charge of brigades at this point. Perhaps there are translation/terminology difficulties...?)

Also, does "Solodchuk" really sound like something equivalent to "scumchuck" in Russian?? Maybe that should have been "Sodchuck" since that British term is well-known around the world, and the woman calls him a faggot shortly afterward.

I do like the channel though.  :smitten:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 31, 2022, 07:54:15 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 31, 2022, 07:29:55 AM
Also, does "Solodchuk" really sound like something equivalent to "scumchuck" in Russian?? Maybe that should have been "Sodchuck" since that British term is well-known around the world, and the woman calls him a faggot shortly afterward.

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/05/30/russian-general-almost-killed-by-his-own-men-who-refused-to-fight/

Russian General Valeriy Solodchuk was almost killed by his own men after forcing them to fight according to intercepted calls by the Ukraine Security Service.

The news of the Russian General was posted by the Ukraine Security Service on Monday, May, 30 on Twitter.



https://gur.gov.ua/en/content/heneral-maior-zs-rf-solodchuk-valerii-mykolaiovych.html

Deputy Commander of the 5th Army (Usuriisk) of the Eastern Military District (Khabarovsk) of the Russian Armed Forces.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 31, 2022, 09:47:01 AM
Okay, so historically based on an adventure by Sodchuck anyway.  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 31, 2022, 10:40:34 AM
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russias-army-could-collapse-amid-27102204

A secretive analysis of the invasion says Russian President Vladimir Putin believes losses of 30,350 troops so far are a "price worth paying" for a small victory in Ukraine.

But the new report - seen by senior UK government officials and written by a top UK analyst on Russia warns Putin's blood sacrifice may be a step too far for his troops.
Today Moscow's troops entered the city of Sievierodonetsk sparking fierce fighting in the ruins of the latest concentration of Russian violence against its neighbour.

Fresh figures revealed Russia's latest suspected losses in weaponry are 207 warplanes destroyed, along with 174 helicopters, 1349 tanks and 13 boats.
The report suggests Kremlin figures have tried in vain to persuade Putin his invasion is a catastrophe but that the President believes he can still win a "partial victory."

The analysis, given to the Mirror, does not believe that failure in Ukraine to even win outright in Donbas will lead to Putin ordering a nuclear strike.
But it does suggest the Russian leader has convinced himself that a victory in contested Donbas is now in sight and will give him huge leverage against Kyiv.
And failure would result in him being deposed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 31, 2022, 07:14:34 PM
MHV's channel is a favorite among many Grogs, and today he analyzes the news of T-62s being deployed:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 31, 2022, 07:22:48 PM
Thanks for the info, Jarhead and Pete.  I hadn't seen those announcement from the British MoD previously.  Intelligence analysis around Russia (and the USSR) has always been two parts speculation and one part guesswork, but I trust those folks to have more informed guesswork and speculation than I do...

I wonder how many NATO-affiliated interrogators are embedded somewhere in Ukraine?  That number has to be in the dozens, at least.  And I wonder if they work for the military, or groups like the CIA?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 31, 2022, 07:26:37 PM
^Or 'other.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 01, 2022, 08:14:17 AM
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1531802118155296771/photo/1

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUIKLO8WUAAoXjb?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 01, 2022, 09:46:31 AM
Ouch! -- looks like a lot of apparent firepower about to pull an end-around up north, going toward Proletarskiy!

Guess that depends on how many feasibly useful units those two armies (and those two corps, and those two brigade) HQs still have attached. There's only one (known) brigade back there at Sumy to protect the entire Prot/Sumy/Okhtyrka/Kharkiv supply loop.

Any serious threat could instigate a fallback (if not a rout) along the northern battlefront, depending on what supplies still remain in Kharkov for choosing to stay and Stalingrad it out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 01, 2022, 09:52:59 AM
well if the soviets want to take Proletarskiy theyre welcome to it as its inside russia.  :DD
and I also wouldnt get to taken by all the unit markers, most of them are at best half strength right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 01, 2022, 01:25:18 PM
Interesting video on lessons learned from this and past wars.
Outlandish claim?  Maybe but he does bring up some good points.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 01, 2022, 06:17:33 PM
some interesting points but he makes the point and then misses it with whos toys work better.
the west's hardware works and it works damn well and is combat tested.
russian and chinese toys really dont seem to live up to the hype.
so I dont think the a trench type was would develop with the US or NATO as combatants.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 02, 2022, 08:26:35 AM
Our toys not only work better (for various reasons including regular maintenance and servicing), but we demonstrably work better with our toys (via training and leadership down to the non-com level).

Re Prole-town: ah, I didn't distinguish the slightly thicker 'national' border from the 'oblast' borders (or county or whatever they are equivalently). Ironically, I might have zoomed in too much.

My basic point still stands, though: if those HQs have anything like feasible reserves, they could be threatening the supply line badly.

But my choice of term, "feasible", refers not only to sufficient numbers, but training, morale, working equipment... things Putin mostly lacks in action (or even potentially actionable from reserve). So maybe it'll be okay after all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 03, 2022, 12:08:11 PM
This is a rather contrarian view to what much of the media is saying about the war in Ukraine, but it's well worth a read.  David French is a well-known conservative (but Never-Trumpian) thinker who spent several years fighting with the US in Iraq and Afghanistan.

One can debate the significance of Russia's tactical wins in the last month, but you have to concede that the war is going much better for them than it was 45 days ago.  I see little in French's historical analysis that I can dispute.  Russian cost tolerance remains extraordinarily high.

https://frenchpress.thedispatch.com/p/the-tide-is-turning-toward-russia?s=r
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 12:15:06 PM
I don't think it's contrarian at all...it's the truth about what is going on in the East. Ukraine can't hold off Russia forever if Russia is determined to destroy Ukraine, even with Western help...short of an all out intervention. And both Putin and Zelenskyy know that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 03, 2022, 12:44:11 PM
It only took the Russians 3 months and 30,000 casualties, but eventually they remembered it's 2022 and not 1939.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: solops on June 03, 2022, 12:56:16 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 12:15:06 PM
I don't think it's contrarian at all...it's the truth about what is going on in the East. Ukraine can't hold off Russia forever if Russia is determined to destroy Ukraine, even with Western help...short of an all out intervention. And both Putin and Zelenskyy know that.
Absolutely.... if this was Risk. Russia's internal dynamics and economic issues are intertwined issues that may trump Putin's efforts. No one knows. It is time to stake out a position, yea or nay on this. If you guess correctly, your future is assured....books, lecture tours, etc. One thing is certain: the stress of this disaster is not doing Putin's cancer treatments any good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on June 03, 2022, 01:00:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 12:15:06 PM
I don't think it's contrarian at all...it's the truth about what is going on in the East. Ukraine can't hold off Russia forever if Russia is determined to destroy Ukraine, even with Western help...short of an all out intervention. And both Putin and Zelenskyy know that.

It is going better (not much better) for Russia in the Donbas region, but the concentration of their forces in that region allows Ukraine to counterattack in other locations.


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-kherson.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/30/ukraine-launches-major-counteroffensive-against-russian-occupiers/

But in recent weeks, Russian forces — stretched thin and taking heavy losses as they gain ground in the eastern Donbas region — have concentrated their efforts in the south on fortifying defensive positions. Satellite images have shown Russians scrambling to build fortifications in Kherson, where the shoots of an insurgency surfaced this month.

It was not clear if they were prepared for the Ukrainian counterattack.

The Ukrainian military headquarters said in a statement that its forces had broken through a Russian line of defense and pushed the Russians into less favorable terrain near the villages of Andriyivka, Lozove and Belihorka. The counteroffensive also sought to threaten Russia's supply routes on bridges over the Dnipro River.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 01:04:21 PM
^Maybe in some twisted way this is how Putin wants to go out...in a 'blaze of glory' instead of in chemo.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on June 03, 2022, 01:07:26 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 12:15:06 PM
I don't think it's contrarian at all...it's the truth about what is going on in the East. Ukraine can't hold off Russia forever if Russia is determined to destroy Ukraine, even with Western help...short of an all out intervention. And both Putin and Zelenskyy know that.

   I think the basic calculus is more elaborate: true, in a perfect world, Russia would eventually overwhelm Ukraine, BUT a) Russia cannot commit everything to overwhelming Ukraine while Ukraine can totally commit to breaking the Russian army (in fact they have no choice in the matter) b) the collateral loses to Russia are already immense  c) Given how much the world depends on Russian oil and gas, a brutally simple solution presents itself: defeat Russia as fast as possible so that things renormalize as fast as possible since letting Russia fool around (as apparently they expect to do) is a much less attractive option than forcing a complete defeat (ie force Russia to get out of Ukraine completely and restore normal relations with the world).  Waiting around while Russia pretends to win it all for decades just doesn't seem like a serious option.  Hence the strong possibility that forcing a defeat on Russia as quickly as possible is probably the best overall solution for everyone (including the Russians).  Anyway, I'd say its at least possible that Russia cannot overwhelm Ukraine at all and it seems likely that Zelensky at least can see that (as can NATO and company).  Moreover, Turkey and NATO are irrelevant if
Ukraine can break the Russian army.  Moreover, it seems like China can already see this ( as seen in no help for Russia at all and meetings on defense with the US for example).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 01:41:49 PM
How much pain can Russia take before it goes to the negotiating table? Or lashes out with nukes?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 03, 2022, 01:47:35 PM
At this point, playing Devil's Advocate, Russia's best chance would seem to be to draw Ukrainian forces into a focused slow-defense meatgrinder with mutually reinforcing and supporting Russian fronts. First with an iron hand crush the enemy, then you can do what you want with their resources and means of production. Ukraine MUST commit to fighting all out, as much as it can, and that drains them faster than Russia -- IF Russia can control the tempo of battle in a loss-efficient way.

So far Russia (for many many reasons) hasn't been able to do that, but they're sorrrrt of getting their ducks in a row now. Too late to force a win by attrition? Maybe, but that's the last remaining (conventional) option.

Even then, I have some doubts that Russia has enough logistic stability or even power to drive a BTG unopposed from the northeast side of Ukraine to the Romanian border (for example). Much less to keep a fight going steadily, even against fragmented partisan remnants.

.....only cancer can save Russia now!  <:-) :hide:

(Incidentally, Putin was in the US for cancer treatment in April? Wow... more than a month after invading?!?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 01:52:20 PM
^WHAT?? Is that true?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 03, 2022, 01:55:47 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on June 03, 2022, 01:47:35 PM

(Incidentally, Putin was in the US for cancer treatment in April? Wow... more than a month after invading?!?)

Huh?  Source?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on June 03, 2022, 02:39:46 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on June 03, 2022, 01:55:47 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on June 03, 2022, 01:47:35 PM

(Incidentally, Putin was in the US for cancer treatment in April? Wow... more than a month after invading?!?)

Huh?  Source?
Quote from: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 01:52:20 PM
^WHAT?? Is that true?

I think this is a case of misreading a title : 'Vladimir Putin had cancer treatment in April US report says'.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 02:46:55 PM
^Ah.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 03, 2022, 05:26:57 PM
No, I am sure it was a case of me hearing someone on a podcast talking about it, while I was busy playing video games.  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 03, 2022, 05:40:08 PM
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357

Lots of info at the Newsweek article which broke the story in America.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 03, 2022, 09:21:20 PM
The Putin cancer thing was one of the little elements my insider buddy who I'm doing some work for was telling me back in January that I didn't share. 

It's a significant part of all this. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 10:00:50 PM
Can your buddy tell the cancer to get moving and pick up the pace?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 03, 2022, 11:15:36 PM
still hoping for the bunker option.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 04, 2022, 11:29:05 AM
C'mon, Putin, pick a mistress and get to it!

The "Downfall" memes on Putin's problems must be epic by now. I recall seeing that earlier one, where the best line near the beginning (the officer in the hallway with the lady) was, "Don't believe that, it's only Nazi propaganda." -- delivered by the Nazi.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 04, 2022, 02:33:49 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 03, 2022, 10:00:50 PM
Can your buddy tell the cancer to get moving and pick up the pace?

From what I understand he may not need to.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on June 04, 2022, 02:56:56 PM
What do you all bet if Putin snuffs it that whomever comes out on top then has the best gov't hackers whip up a deepfake showing Putin anointing that top dog as his worthy successor?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on June 04, 2022, 04:29:50 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on June 04, 2022, 02:56:56 PM
What do you all bet if Putin snuffs it that whomever comes out on top then has the best gov't hackers whip up a deepfake showing Putin anointing that top dog as his worthy successor?
Your post made me wonder about the official Russian succession plan. Found a pre-Ukraine article based on constitutional changes he made in 2020.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-putin-succession-plan-2020-6

"Technically, the answer is straightforward: On January 15, Putin announced a series of constitutional changes and dismissed the cabinet of Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev and replaced him with a little-known tax official, Mikhail Mishustin. The change allowed himself to stay in power yet limited future presidents to two terms total in office. Mishustin would officially take control of the Russian government in the case of Putin's death or incapacitation, for 90 days or until an election to replace him can be held. 
"

"So what would happen if Putin suddenly caught COVID-19 and died? Who would control Russia's nuclear weapons and who would come out on top during the 90-day struggle before an election is called?


"It will be 'Death of Stalin,'" said the Western European official, referring to the recent black comedy movie about the days after Stalin's death, as his lieutenants fought to replace him (and avoid being killed by their rivals).
"

Need to check if that movie is on Netflix.  Anyone seen it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 04, 2022, 04:39:08 PM
Tax official?? Wow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on June 04, 2022, 04:48:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 04, 2022, 04:39:08 PM
Tax official?? Wow.
The article stated that the Russian tax system is 'weaponized' and oligarchs can pretty much be arrested at any time for tax fraud. 

Death of Stalin got a 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and it's cast includes Michael Palin (as Molotov) and Steve Buscemi (as Khrushchev).   On Netflix.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 04, 2022, 04:49:20 PM
I just looked for it but it's not on Netflix here in the NE US.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 04, 2022, 04:52:34 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 04, 2022, 04:49:20 PM
I just looked for it but it's not on Netflix here in the NE US.

It's a rental on Amazon Prime. 

It's worth the watch.  I enjoyed it a lot.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on June 04, 2022, 04:58:10 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 04, 2022, 04:49:20 PM
I just looked for it but it's not on Netflix here in the NE US.
Damn, not available in Ohio either. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 04, 2022, 05:01:17 PM
^I just noticed that you mentioned Steve Buscemi as Khruschev - I can't picture that at all but that alone sounds worth the price of admission hahaha
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 04, 2022, 05:11:25 PM
its a great movie!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 04, 2022, 05:16:31 PM
It also has Jason Isaacs as EPIC HECKING ZHUKOV!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 04, 2022, 05:23:47 PM
Death of Stalin is an excellent movie, very funny and timely as hell if you're paying any attention at all to Russian politics.  And yeah, Jason Isaacs absolutely steals the show as Zhukov!

I think it's available on Amazon Prime
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: CptHowdy on June 04, 2022, 06:11:39 PM
go to fmovies. they have the movie. i watched ravenous there after all the talk about it in another thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 04, 2022, 06:33:09 PM
Fmovies sounds er a bit on the 'exotic' side...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 04, 2022, 07:38:36 PM
 <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 05, 2022, 09:15:37 AM
 :o

https://twitter.com/i/status/1533377424641208320
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on June 05, 2022, 10:00:09 AM
Damn, that's pretty much over open sights. Looks desperate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 05, 2022, 02:29:54 PM
Another interesting Tweet:

Destroyed Russian T-72s and BMP-1s in a Ukrainian field, 2022.
Photo could just as easily be of knocked out Soviet T-72s and BMP-1s in a West German field, 1987.

Fiction and Reality are friends with benefits at the very least, folks.

https://twitter.com/WorldWarIII1987/status/1533201858168295425/photo/1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 05, 2022, 07:07:04 PM
soviet Frogfoots

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUhFaR2XsAElzV0?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 05, 2022, 07:13:52 PM
^that is what I call nap of the earth.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on June 05, 2022, 07:39:00 PM
^^I see the Ukrainian farmer is there with his tractor in case the SU25 crash-lands.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 05, 2022, 08:23:09 PM
^Was just gonna say that...the Ukrainian John Deere Brigade - always ready. The planes look like they are what...75 feet off the ground, if that. Holy shit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on June 05, 2022, 08:59:51 PM
These are the guys that are still alive. They know that their ass will have a manpad SAM on it in a heartbeat if they fly any higher.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 05, 2022, 09:17:47 PM
Incredible image.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on June 05, 2022, 09:36:56 PM
Is that a real image or from a computer game?  Games have gotten incredibly realistic.  What kind of shutter speed (or its digital equivalent) does a camera have to have to not smear the shadow of the plane on the ground at speed?  Can anyone find the speed readout in that HUD?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 05, 2022, 11:14:23 PM
Quote from: Con on June 05, 2022, 08:59:51 PM
These are the guys that are still alive. They know that their ass will have a manpad SAM on it in a heartbeat if they fly any higher.

have you seen the UAV filming its own death to one?
the good bit starts at :44
https://twitter.com/i/status/1533287844860633088
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 05, 2022, 11:28:22 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 04, 2022, 05:11:25 PM
its a great movie!

Absolute must see!!!

The movie was mostly shot in Kyiv.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 06, 2022, 09:06:56 AM
and another Russian general...along with the rumor of a second one...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-general-killed-in-donbas-fighting-reports/ar-AAY84Dc?bk=1&ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3c3f93d2e2ac49649e271813c6987d36 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-general-killed-in-donbas-fighting-reports/ar-AAY84Dc?bk=1&ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3c3f93d2e2ac49649e271813c6987d36)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 07, 2022, 03:57:35 PM
3000 impacts in a field

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUqgdtgWAAIlKan?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: LongBlade on June 07, 2022, 04:01:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 07, 2022, 03:57:35 PM
3000 impacts in a field

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUqgdtgWAAIlKan?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

Is that a metaphor for the number of times you struck out in a bar this week?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 07, 2022, 04:03:33 PM
That picture makes my skin crawl - looks like a skin disease. 🤢
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 07, 2022, 05:58:51 PM
Is that THE actual Longblade??? Holy moly.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: LongBlade on June 07, 2022, 10:08:16 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 07, 2022, 05:58:51 PM
Is that THE actual Longblade??? Holy moly.

Don't blink

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 07, 2022, 10:26:20 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 07, 2022, 05:58:51 PM
Is that THE actual Longblade??? Holy moly.

(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ComfortableImaginaryBlobfish-size_restricted.gif)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 08, 2022, 05:16:34 AM
I blinked...what now?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 08, 2022, 07:23:56 AM
We teased you a lot and we got you on the spot...welcome back!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: LongBlade on June 08, 2022, 10:45:34 AM
Thanks for all the swoons. Jarhead told me there'd be strippers so I had to show up.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 08, 2022, 10:50:09 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on June 08, 2022, 10:45:34 AM
Thanks for all the swoons. Jarhead told me there'd be strippers so I had to show up.

I believe I said "hookers"...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on June 08, 2022, 11:26:01 AM
Hey LB!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 08, 2022, 11:32:38 AM
Damn, if I knew company was coming, I would've put pants on. And underware. Great to see you here-abouts LB.  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 08, 2022, 11:57:08 AM
Please LB, try to visit a little more than once every five years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 08, 2022, 12:01:17 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 08, 2022, 11:57:08 AM
Please LB, try to visit a little more than once every five years.

+1  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 08, 2022, 01:06:51 PM
Interesting list of vehicles involved in the war.  A lot of it is ancient junk.

https://www.militaryfactory.com/armor/ukrainian-russian-war-tanks-vehicles-and-artillery.php

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 08, 2022, 01:34:34 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on June 08, 2022, 01:06:51 PM
Interesting list of vehicles involved in the war.  A lot of it is ancient junk.

https://www.militaryfactory.com/armor/ukrainian-russian-war-tanks-vehicles-and-artillery.php

All this variety must be driving the mechanics and parts logisticians crazy...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 08, 2022, 01:36:33 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on June 08, 2022, 01:34:34 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on June 08, 2022, 01:06:51 PM
Interesting list of vehicles involved in the war.  A lot of it is ancient junk.

https://www.militaryfactory.com/armor/ukrainian-russian-war-tanks-vehicles-and-artillery.php

All this variety must be driving the mechanics and parts logisticians crazy...

Yet another way Putin is managing to replicate the Nazis  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 08, 2022, 02:28:01 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on June 08, 2022, 01:36:33 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on June 08, 2022, 01:34:34 PM
All this variety must be driving the mechanics and parts logisticians crazy...

Yet another way Putin is managing to replicate the Nazis  ;D

I lol'd surprisingly hard at that one!  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on June 08, 2022, 03:36:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 08, 2022, 11:57:08 AM
Please LB, try to visit a little more than once every five years.

the first good thing that came out of the Russo-Ukrainian war

LongBlade showed up in the thread  :hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 08, 2022, 04:33:30 PM
^ 8)

And all it took was the precursor to World War III
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on June 08, 2022, 08:17:28 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 08, 2022, 04:33:30 PM
^ 8)

And all it took was the precursor to World War III
The end of the world as we know it.

Nice to hear from you again, Longblade.  All we need now is Bayonet Brant and the circle will be complete.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 08, 2022, 08:55:53 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 08, 2022, 04:33:30 PM
^ 8)

And all it took was the precursor to World War III

Welcome back Longblade...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 08, 2022, 11:07:32 PM
Tom Lehrer is brilliant.

LongBlade, it's good to see ya, man! 

Quote from: Gusington on June 08, 2022, 04:33:30 PM
^ 8)

And all it took was the precursor to World War III

Technically, it was that... and Jarhead's promise of hookers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 09, 2022, 08:27:02 AM
'Hookers and WWIII - My Time Spent Online in 2022' - by Gus
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 09, 2022, 10:26:31 AM
 O0  Hookers and Meth Dealers are about the only ones still taking cash nowdays.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 09, 2022, 12:33:35 PM
British fighters sentenced to death for opposing Russia in war

https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/british-fighters-sentenced-to-death-for-opposing-russia-in-war
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 09, 2022, 12:44:17 PM
^Just read in the NYTimes that the Russians hold 1100 more Ukrainian prisoners to use in a similar way.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 09, 2022, 01:01:32 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on June 09, 2022, 12:33:35 PM
British fighters sentenced to death for opposing Russia in war

https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/british-fighters-sentenced-to-death-for-opposing-russia-in-war

..."guilty of taking action toward a violent overthrow of power, an offense punishable by death in the internationally unrecognized rebel-held territory in Ukraine's Donbass region."

Oh, the irony... :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on June 09, 2022, 02:38:03 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on June 09, 2022, 12:33:35 PM
British fighters sentenced to death for opposing Russia in war

https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/british-fighters-sentenced-to-death-for-opposing-russia-in-war

   It's weird how bad the Russian timing is on all these things.  right now, they should be turning down the rhetoric and murders and threats whatnot since they are within a reasonable
range of declaring victory and just sitting on the terrain they hold in Ukraine.  But no, instead they are upping their threats and working on putting their murderous propensities on the
front burner just in time to make sure that the West pumps a lot more internationally supported operations (such as the Turkish Navy protecting grain ships), funding, tech, weapons
and ammo into Ukraine.  It looks like the Russians will manage to declare victory and ask for a ceasefire at exactly the moment when the Ukrainians begin to absorb a
new wave of advanced weapons.  The Ukrainians are going to say "no ceasefire" and the Russians are going to reasonably expect a lot of international pressure on Ukraine to accept BUT
the Russians will probably flub even that smooth move and make it clear there's no way to deal with them except to drive them completely out of Ukraine and arm Ukraine to the teeth.
Who needs NATO if the Ukrainians can crush the Russians?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 09, 2022, 02:44:09 PM
They could've gotten worse. They might have been sentenced to 10 years keeping Putin's nipples sharpened. I got to believe this is a ploy by the Russkies to wrangle some concessions out of the UK and a deal will follow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on June 09, 2022, 04:45:31 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on June 09, 2022, 02:44:09 PM
They could've gotten worse. They might have been sentenced to 10 years keeping Putin's nipples sharpened. I got to believe this is a ploy by the Russkies to wrangle some concessions out of the UK and a deal will follow.
Will probably want to trade them for some hostage Russians (asylum seekers) that the UK is holding.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 09, 2022, 05:55:35 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU1j3gpXwAI7pdt?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 09, 2022, 07:41:23 PM
whoa
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 09, 2022, 07:45:37 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 09, 2022, 07:41:23 PM
whoa

I second that emotion.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 09, 2022, 10:16:46 PM
I hear your wallets opening.   :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 10, 2022, 06:38:26 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 09, 2022, 10:16:46 PM
I hear your wallets opening.   :2funny:

That sound isn't Gusington's wallet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 10, 2022, 08:58:16 AM
Correct. His wallet makes a slow, creaky/squealish noise as it opens. Like when he pulls it out to buy a round at the bar. Along with the lights and sirens.  :hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 10, 2022, 09:00:44 AM
Joke's on me...I don't carry a wallet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on June 10, 2022, 09:06:51 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine

Ukraine's deputy head of military intelligence has said Ukraine is losing against Russia on the frontlines and is now almost solely reliant on weapons from the west to keep Russia at bay.
"This is an artillery war now," said Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence. The frontlines were now where the future would be decided, he told the Guardian, "and we are losing in terms of artillery".
"Everything now depends on what [the west] gives us," said Skibitsky. "Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian artillery pieces. Our western partners have given us about 10% of what they have."

Ukraine is using 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day, according to Skibitsky. "We have almost used up all of our [artillery] ammunition and are now using 155-calibre Nato standard shells," he said of the ammunition that is fired from artillery pieces.

"We have noticed that Russia is carrying out far fewer rocket attacks and it has used H-22 rockets; they are old 1970s Soviet rockets," said Skibitsky. "This shows that Russia is running low on rockets."
Skibitsky said Russia was unable to produce rockets quickly because of the sanctions and that it had used around 60% of its supplies.

Ukraine's military intelligence believes that Russia can continue at its current rate without manufacturing more weapons or mobilising the population for another year.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 10, 2022, 11:20:35 AM
Putin admitted that the goal of the war is to expand Russian territory:

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-says-ukraine-war-seize-land-russia-undermines-rationale-2022-6
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on June 10, 2022, 12:32:40 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on June 10, 2022, 11:20:35 AM
Putin admitted that the goal of the war is to expand Russian territory:

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-says-ukraine-war-seize-land-russia-undermines-rationale-2022-6

  So all the verbiage about protecting the rights of "separatists" is the pure crap it has always evidently been, apparently.  I guess part of the joke is on the separatist who now
get to not be separate from the Zombie-Orkish realm of the former Soviet Union.  What a surprise.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 10, 2022, 12:39:02 PM
Yeah I'm not really shocked either.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 10, 2022, 01:22:52 PM
can NATO get involved now  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 10, 2022, 01:30:52 PM
no really, not so worried about the nuclear bit anymore.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1534897804186894338
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 12, 2022, 10:45:24 PM
Another excellent analysis video by Perun, who seems to have found his calling as a military analyst.  In this video he focuses on Russia's apparent shortcomings in the context of being in a "peacetime" conflict (vs. an official war)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 13, 2022, 11:08:16 AM
Nazis' and Drug Addicts all over Ukraine are breathing a huge sigh of relief right now. The war's not about them any more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 13, 2022, 03:03:24 PM
a rough breakdown of where the money is going:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVDchjoX0AMd-G2?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on June 13, 2022, 03:44:53 PM
Interesting biggest chunk is going back to US arms manufacturers - wonder what that unexpected windfall will do for their capabilities and capital improvements which are sorely needed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 13, 2022, 04:12:56 PM
Im fine with that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 13, 2022, 06:02:28 PM
and just to throw a little WW2 flavor into the mix, Rheinmetall debuted its new KF51 Panther at Eurosatory 2022.
because the world needs a newer, better German Panther!  >:D

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/new-kf51-panther-tank-packs-big-130mm-gun-aimed-at-aging-leopard-2

(https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2022/06/13/KF41_PANTHER.jpg?auto=webp&auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=70&width=1920)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 13, 2022, 06:19:35 PM
^WOw!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on June 13, 2022, 06:29:09 PM
Guederian is drooling
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 13, 2022, 08:20:58 PM
I can't believe they still use the Panther name...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 13, 2022, 08:23:29 PM
This sounds like something from a Larry Bond novel:

'...the governments in Paris and Berlin are investing around $1.6 billion in development costs to create a new Franco-German MBT that will eventually replace the French Army's Leclerc and German Leopard 2s.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 13, 2022, 08:32:42 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 13, 2022, 06:02:28 PM
and just to throw a little WW2 flavor into the mix, Rheinmetall debuted its new KF51 Panther at Eurosatory 2022.
because the world needs a newer, better German Panther!  >:D

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/new-kf51-panther-tank-packs-big-130mm-gun-aimed-at-aging-leopard-2

(https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2022/06/13/KF41_PANTHER.jpg?auto=webp&auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=70&width=1920)

Someone at Rheinmetall has been playing Arma 3.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 13, 2022, 08:45:16 PM
I cant wait to see the new Tiger.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on June 13, 2022, 11:03:50 PM
Promo video from the manufacturer
I have to admit it is what you would want a future tank to look like - the specs and capabilities are pretty impressive as well

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 13, 2022, 11:17:36 PM
so from what Ive been reading that cannon hits between 18-20 Mj vs the Leo2/M1A2s 12-14.
2 10 round armored and blast proof drums for the autoloader
and lots of other toys
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 14, 2022, 07:14:34 AM
Came here specifically to drop that video and say, "YOUR MOVE PUTIN!"  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 14, 2022, 09:26:23 AM
Damn! Hope they're on our side this time.  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on June 14, 2022, 09:46:39 AM
Autoloader only held 20 shells.  I guess they intend to hit what they aim at.  What really got me was mention of the 3 crew members having stations that allow them to take over any other crewmember's duties.  Also the passing mention that it may allow for no crew at all!!!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 14, 2022, 09:52:02 AM
It is the most Teutonic creation I have ever seen - I am terrified and titillated at the same time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 14, 2022, 03:39:17 PM
Daniel Ortega, President of Nicaragua, has entered the chat:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/nicaragua-congress-renews-russian-training-exercise-approval-2022-06-14/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 14, 2022, 03:47:24 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 14, 2022, 03:39:17 PM
Daniel Ortega, President of Nicaragua, has entered the chat:

The 80's called and wanted its news story back.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 14, 2022, 04:03:04 PM
I find it rather annoying that the Ukraine seems to be sliding further and further into the backround of US news.
this is the south shoulder of the Severodonetsk salient.

North Of Popasna Frontline Update- Ukrainian forces have pushed Russians away from the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway for now and have liberated the towns of Nahirne and Bilohorivka. Fighting continues around Vasylivka and Nyrkove. Russians try to advance west to Zolote.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVKv_5LWYAEiMra?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 14, 2022, 04:07:03 PM
lets call this one Sunrise Harvest

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVOofWPXEAUc-4R?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 14, 2022, 04:14:44 PM
^ That would make for a great stylized Ukrainian flag.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 14, 2022, 04:41:39 PM
'Russian Sunset'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 14, 2022, 04:47:25 PM
those are Ukrainians Gus.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 14, 2022, 05:00:48 PM
Right, I know that. But how do you know if they're facing east or west?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 14, 2022, 05:38:04 PM
because the vast majority of front face east in some way and the tweet I found it in gave a rough location.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 14, 2022, 06:13:55 PM
I guess my question was pretty dumb then. But you get so cranky! Makes it worth it :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 14, 2022, 06:39:02 PM
how was I being cranky?  ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 14, 2022, 08:02:32 PM
Your response just seemed terse and irritated. Like my poison ivy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 14, 2022, 08:20:49 PM
I thought the joke was that it could just as easily represent sunset for Russia.  :-\

Anyway, clearly it isn't a Harvest: the John Deere tractors haven't arrived yet!  >:D

(...okay, they're probably just out of frame.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 15, 2022, 08:17:25 AM
^That's exactly what I meant...being 'figurative' and all that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 15, 2022, 03:13:48 PM
Unconfirmed report, but possibly  two Americans have been captured by Russian forces...one of them is a Marine.

https://popularmilitary.com/breaking-two-american-veterans-captured-by-russian-soldiers-while-fighting-in-ukraine-according-to-reports/?fbclid=IwAR3RVpBSnxDkY-ZZwPDCYe8a08SQ6cLRj6sSACckeVOuBPSQIXCjKYSFNlU (https://popularmilitary.com/breaking-two-american-veterans-captured-by-russian-soldiers-while-fighting-in-ukraine-according-to-reports/?fbclid=IwAR3RVpBSnxDkY-ZZwPDCYe8a08SQ6cLRj6sSACckeVOuBPSQIXCjKYSFNlU)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 15, 2022, 04:16:51 PM
Southern Front as of this time yesterday:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVPfraZXoAAEb8U?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 16, 2022, 05:18:09 AM
Confirmed missing, but no confirmation of Russian captivity yet from the State Department.

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/06/15/2-us-veterans-a-marine-and-a-soldier-reported-missing-in-ukraine/ (https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/06/15/2-us-veterans-a-marine-and-a-soldier-reported-missing-in-ukraine/)


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 16, 2022, 08:14:49 AM
Hoping that the Russians don't make an example of them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 16, 2022, 09:44:17 AM
Quote from: Gusington on June 16, 2022, 08:14:49 AM
Hoping that the Russians don't make an example of them.
I would assume that Russia would not execute them (although betting that Russia would not execute anyone is frequently not a winning bet....).  Here's my reasoning: 1) Presumably they were in uniform, and therefore they were lawful combatants.  So there is a Geneva convention and war crimes issue with executing them.  2) they are far more valuable alive as bargaining chips, then dead as examples.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 16, 2022, 09:59:10 AM
The Russians have given the death penalty to Ukrainian and British combatants who they've captured, but have not actually executed them yet as far as I know. And they have 1000s more Ukrainian prisoners.

If they did capture these two American combatants, they are the only American combatants they have. So...I agree, these two Americans are probably more valuable as bargaining tools/chips.

Still...would not want to be in the Americans' shoes right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 16, 2022, 03:39:18 PM
Following the Russian MO, they'll move quickly to announce a pending execution to maximize their value as a bargaining chip.

As for the new Franco/German MBT, somebody needs to buy those armies more pixels.  The camouflage pattern looks like it's straight out of Minecraft.

I'm also frustrated by the general lack of interest in military events in Ukraine.  Russia has a long history of doing better in grinding wars of attrition, of the sort that we're in now, and the reports coming from the Ukrainian government seem far less triumphant than what we were hearing 30 or 45 days ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 16, 2022, 03:41:01 PM
^ A lot of what we're seeing, the Ukrainians were screaming was coming. 'We can't hold them off forever.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 16, 2022, 03:46:11 PM
This is an excellent article for those of us trying to use the past in Ukraine to predict the future of the military conflict there.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/strange-debacle-misadventures-in-assessing-russian-military-power/

The proximity to a dense network of rail lines in the industrialized East of Ukraine has certainly played to Russia's ability to amass and expend firepower.  The modern-day Russian army seems much better suited to holding ground than to seizing it. 

I wonder how Ukrainian inventories of Russian-made replacement parts and ammunition is faring. 

I also wonder how quickly we've been able to train the Ukrainians in using the more advanced Western weapons systems that are now flowing into the country.  The Ukrainians' ability to sustain fire on target is going to depend on having enough of the right weapon systems and enough of the right ammunition on hand at the same time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 16, 2022, 10:44:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 15, 2022, 04:16:51 PM
Southern Front as of this time yesterday:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVPfraZXoAAEb8U?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

Hopefully the Ukrainians can get to Kherson. They need some good news.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on June 18, 2022, 09:51:21 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on June 16, 2022, 05:18:09 AM
Confirmed missing, but no confirmation of Russian captivity yet from the State Department.

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/06/15/2-us-veterans-a-marine-and-a-soldier-reported-missing-in-ukraine/ (https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/06/15/2-us-veterans-a-marine-and-a-soldier-reported-missing-in-ukraine/)

https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-captives-alexander-drueke-and-andy-huynh-surface-in-russian-propaganda-videos?ref=home

U.S. Captives Surface in Russian Propaganda Videos

Two of the American fighters thought to have been captured by Russian forces in Ukraine last week have suddenly surfaced in Russian propaganda videos, confirming their families' worst fears that they've wound up in enemy hands.

Alexander Drueke, 39, and Andy Huynh, 27, were seen looking worse for wear in videos shared by Russian state media on Friday. Though the two had officially joined Ukraine's military as volunteers in the war, the Russian headlines described them as American "mercenaries."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 18, 2022, 09:51:48 AM
Sadly, it looks as if it has been confirmed that the two US veterans are, in fact, in Russian separatist captivity.

EDIT: Ninja'ed by Dero.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 18, 2022, 09:56:02 AM
Crap - don't know what to expect for the two of them now as prisoners.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on June 18, 2022, 10:02:05 AM
That sucks, but it was their choice to go over and no matter how brave and heroic their actions are, sadly, they have to deal with the consequences. I hope the US doesn't try and retaliate because of 2 men's choices.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 18, 2022, 10:39:55 AM
theyll be bargaining chip in future prisoner swaps.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on June 18, 2022, 10:56:10 AM
Quote from: Gusington on June 16, 2022, 03:41:01 PM
^ A lot of what we're seeing, the Ukrainians were screaming was coming. 'We can't hold them off forever.'

  I still think we can rely on the Russians to flub all their opportunities: stopping at any point earlier would have been better of course for them and everyone else -- BUT -- if they don't stop soon
they will lose all the threatening nature of their gains and the possibility of separating the Ukrainians from some of their European supporters (since if the Russians stop and the Ukrainains still want to fight
then some of the Europeans will suggest "negotiations" -- which have been pointless with the Russians for quite a while) while on the other hand, if they continue, the Ukrainians are going to be building up
and in a very bad mood with lots of support at which point the Russians will have definitely flubbed all their chances of whatever they seem to have thought they were trying to do -- which is by the way -- still completely unclear.  There's a big difference between obliterating 20% of Ukraine and taking over the world, though the Russians don't seem to have quite worked that out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on June 18, 2022, 11:19:12 AM
The recent rumblings from some in the West with regards to Ukraine stopping at this point is unimaginable.  Didn't see France go, "welp, just gotta let the Germans have it then," in WW1.  Besides, the activities of Russians in occupied territory screams that if given the chance, Ukrainian nationality as an idea and as a peoples' identity would be ground into oblivion so when facing that, who in their right mind would stop fighting?

Unreal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 18, 2022, 12:43:15 PM
^Very true. This war is similar to WWI in a lot of ways, it's eerie.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 20, 2022, 08:40:13 AM
Saw a recent headline about Ukrainians starting to desert in significant numbers (enough to report anyway). Wasn't where I could check more, and now I'm at the office, so maybe someone else can come up with details...  :-\
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 20, 2022, 09:31:58 AM
According to the NATO General Secretary it could take years before this war is over. 

https://www.euronews.com/2022/06/19/it-could-take-years-nato-secretary-general-warns-of-a-possible-lengthy-war-in-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 20, 2022, 11:25:13 AM
Hanging onto territory and "winning" wars of attrition are two things that the Russians are pretty well prepared to do against a country one-quarter their size.  It's a little unclear if some of the cracks we're seeing in Ukrainian resolve are a calculated strategy by the Ukrainian government to get more concessions from their European allies, or a sign that Ukrainian determination might have its limits.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 20, 2022, 03:51:47 PM
The Lithuanians have some massive cajones:

CNN - Kremlin says Lithuanian ban is "illegal": Lithuania's decision to ban the transit of sanctioned materials to Russia through the Kaliningrad region -- Russia's exclave in the European Union -- is "unprecedented" and Russia considers it "illegal," according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Lithuanian Railways, the state-owned railway company, had notified Russia that starting midnight on June 18, transit trains with goods subject to EU sanctions would no longer be allowed to pass through, the governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov said on his telegram channel Friday. The list of the banned goods includes construction material, cement, metals according to Alikhanov.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 20, 2022, 03:56:15 PM
dont forget they have the full backing of the EU for this.  it was cleared with Brussles first.
and fuck russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 20, 2022, 03:59:10 PM
^Especially that last part haha
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on June 20, 2022, 04:37:58 PM
I think this will roll on with Ukraine slowly pushing back the Ruskies (better morale than anything).

I read something somewhere that the Ukraines launched an attack against a Russian offshore gas platform. Interesting change of targets... going after economic targets now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 20, 2022, 04:48:08 PM
Gotta link for that?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on June 20, 2022, 05:17:56 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on June 20, 2022, 11:25:13 AM
Hanging onto territory and "winning" wars of attrition are two things that the Russians are pretty well prepared to do against a country one-quarter their size.  It's a little unclear if some of the cracks we're seeing in Ukrainian resolve are a calculated strategy by the Ukrainian government to get more concessions from their European allies, or a sign that Ukrainian determination might have its limits.

  I'm not so sure about the Russians being good at everything.  After all the Japanese trounced them in 1905, plus Russia is demographically only about twice the size of Ukraine  (111 million ethnic Russians in Russia versus 44 million ethnic Ukrainians in Ukraine).  Moreover, I don't think the calculus of running this war forever really helps the Russians at all.  The Ukrainians don't seem likely to collapse any time soon and nothing about more and more of this war seems to favor the Russians at all.  If we're betting on which army will effectively mutiny, I think the Russian forces are slightly more likely to mutiny first, though once one army mutinies, the other may follow and the mutinies may be coming sooner than anyone (except me, I guess) seems to think.  We may be seeing the beginnings of effective mutiny on both sides with this "stalemate" situation.  As we know from WWI, it is quite possible for supposedly massive armies locked in combat to figure out ways of ensuring lots of shooting but not much damage via the growth of tacit understandings between the supposedly fully engaged forces.  Plus there is probably already a lot of cooking the reports going on that tell higher commands that a lot of stuff is happening that really isn't.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 20, 2022, 06:15:50 PM
The Russians have a long history of their entire nation in mutiny.

Ukraine will fight much much longer as it is a fight for their existence.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 21, 2022, 07:17:46 AM
I saw a news article on that Lithuanian ban on Russian trains to Kaliningrad.  Regardless of the governments who start the wars it's always the people who suffer. 

Praying to the many on all sides who are suffering. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MOS:96B2P on June 21, 2022, 08:29:26 AM
SLAVA UKRAINI!!!

Kira Nechay has begun volunteering in 2014. Since then, she trained as a paramedic and tactical medicine instructor.
When the war began, she joined "Hospitaliers" - volunteer medical battallion. Kira works in the East, helping people with evacuation and giving first aid.

(https://i.imgur.com/9TvvBrC.jpg)





Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MOS:96B2P on June 21, 2022, 09:21:07 AM
Below is an article posted on Twitter by ChrisO on May 31, 2022 that details some of the corruption in the armed forces of The Russian Federation.  Its demoralizing just reading it.  I can't imagine being 18 and having to serve in the described conditions.  IMO it explains some of the reasons why Russia is having so many difficulties with its invasion of Ukraine.  On the morning of the invasion who would have thought the Russian Federation would be forced to retreat from the outskirts of Kyiv.  The article makes the retreat a little more understandable.  Below are parts of the article.  The entire article (series of tweets) with more photos can be found on Twitter.  I'll attempt to create a link at the end.

-----------------------
If you're in the Russian military, why do you need protection from these people but also aspire to behave like them? The answer lies in Russia's gangster culture. In this third 🧵 in a series, I'll look at some factors behind the epic scale of Russia's military corruption.

(https://i.imgur.com/Biuwd0zh.jpg)

Old rations, faulty vehicles, missing radios, under-strength units: corruption has been blamed for hollowing out Russia's military and undermining its war in Ukraine. It's worth examining this problem and seeing how it's affected the Russian armed forces.

Russia is one of the world's most corrupt countries - Transparency International (TI) rates it 136th of 180 countries. State corruption is endemic. TI found that between 2008 and 2020, current and former Russian officials owned 28,000 properties in 85 countries.  Like every other state institution in Russia, the armed forces are riddled with corruption at every level. This is nothing new: in his 1854 Sevastopol Sketches, Tolstoy wrote of Russian officers: "While they are in the service their main aim is the acquisition of money."

In 1998, Russia's Prosecutor General called the Russian Armed Forces "the most corrupt government structure in Russia". If anything, it's got worse since then.  Corruption starts even before someone joins the military.  Only the poor or the stupid allow themselves to be conscripted. The rest get out of it by bribing a doctor or recruiting officer. The 'fee' was reportedly between $5,000-$10,000 in 2007.  Up to 70% of those summoned for conscription buy their way out of it, leaving the armed forces with the poorest and least healthy. This leaves the Russian military with chronic problems of fitness and efficiency.

If you get conscripted, you'll be treated as the lowest of the low and exploited ruthlessly by older soldiers, known as 'dyedi' ('uncles'). This could include being forced into prostitution, doing unpaid labor, or even selling your own blood to earn a few rubles.  In 2007, conscripts in St Petersburg told Russian media how older soldiers forced them to perform sexual services for influential middle-aged clients or face torture. Young soldiers were reportedly forced to go with clients in their cars. The dyedi kept a list of 'providers'.

If you're a contract soldier - a military professional - you're a step up but are still exploited. Salaries are low ($240 monthly before the Ukraine war). You may well need to buy your own uniforms, boots and fuel.  Newer uniforms and boots of the right size are often unavailable because they've been stolen and sold off, so you'll need to purchase them online. Ironically, ex-NATO surplus boots are reportedly favorites for their comfort and durability.  There are, however, compensations to being a low-ranking soldier or junior officer - you may be posted to a military depot. These offer endless opportunities for theft. Avito, Russia's equivalent of eBay, is full of adverts for likely stolen items of military equipment.

Let's move up to the mid-ranking officers. Life is a lot cushier at this level as you can sign contracts, command troops and oversee bases. There are a lot more opportunities for corruption at ranks from major through colonel.  Your perks may include using conscripts to build your dacha, or hiring them out to others to work in building sites, fields or factories. Naturally, the conscripts get no compensation for this work.  You also have the possibility of stealing your men's wages. Or manipulating budget allocations to claim money for non-existent extra personnel and pocket the difference. Non-existent troops are known as 'dead souls'.  Dead souls' are nothing new. In 1854, the Economist newspaper noted how much the Russian forces in the Crimean War were under strength. "The Russian armies are often armies on paper only.

"The colonels and officers have a direct interest in having as large a number on the books and as small a number on the field as possible - inasmuch as they pocket the pay and rations of the difference between these figures."

Figures leaked to Novye Izvestia newspaper in 2003 indicated that there were at least 30,000 "dead souls" in the armed forces. The 2012 case of Col Sergey Ustinov and Maj Hovik Babayan, two Eastern Military District officers, illustrates how this scam works.  Babayan was responsible for providing food services to troops under Ustinov's command. He forged documents, signed by Ustinov, showing 29,000 more soldiers were being fed than actually existed. The pair pocketed 6 million rubles for feeding the surplus 'dead souls'.

Researchers estimate that as many as one in ten Russian officers are corrupt. Military procurement is particularly rife with corruption. Let's first consider the case of Colonel Sergei Serkin, formerly the chief provisions officer for the North Caucasus Military District.  In only two years in his position, Col Serkin acquired several apartments, a house and an Audi car with a total value of about $200,000. One of his schemes was accepting bribes to purchase 3,500 tons of low-quality codfish, normally used as cattle food, for army rations.
-------------------------------------------------

Link:

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1539019204267057153?s=20&t=94Ut_MYEnLIOWo-OhESyjg
 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 21, 2022, 11:38:06 AM
I suddenly feel short of breath. Please send Kira immediately.  ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 21, 2022, 02:32:26 PM
CNN has quoted the Kremlin announcing that the Geneva Convention does not apply to the American detainees they have.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 21, 2022, 02:50:22 PM
and for you people, some comedy:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1539108484859547655
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 21, 2022, 02:50:41 PM
This whole Lithuania/Kaliningrad thing really is a lot more serious than one would see at first glance.

Lithuania and Poland are both NATO members.  If Russia tries to use force and strike at either of them that's Article 5 right there.  Then it's not just Russia vs. Ukraine.  It's Russia vs. 30 countries. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 21, 2022, 03:15:58 PM
I know.  <:-)  :bd:  :knuppel2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on June 21, 2022, 04:52:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 21, 2022, 03:15:58 PM
I know.  <:-)  :bd:  :knuppel2:

I admit that I am getting tired of Russia acting like a little bitch all the time as things don't break their way.

Surely to God they realize that NATO airpower would pound their forces heavy weaponry in the Ukraine into tiny bits of useless lego within 2 days? There would be a 'Falaise Gap' like stampede of Russian forces running for their own border?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 21, 2022, 04:57:22 PM
even my wife is like, fuck these people let NATO loose.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 21, 2022, 09:35:16 PM
All we have to do is kick-in the front door and the whole rotten structure will fall down, right?  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 21, 2022, 10:01:16 PM
look at their track record so far in this conflict.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 21, 2022, 10:29:28 PM
so this is what its like to be in a russian ammo depot after it gets hit with missiles.
turn the sound down, its LOUD!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1539434541282168833
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 22, 2022, 08:26:29 AM
Meanwhile, off the coast of Japan:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/22/asia/japan-russia-china-warships-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

You'd think the Russians would have learned from the last time they entered the Tsushima Strait  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 22, 2022, 08:36:55 AM
Quote from: Gusington on June 21, 2022, 02:32:26 PM
CNN has quoted the Kremlin announcing that the Geneva Convention does not apply to the American detainees they have.
Before I begin: Standard disclaimers about authoritarian governments following the law apply to what I am about to say.  With that disclaimer out of the way, the two Americans that were captured were fighting for an independent country and wearing an identifiable uniform of that country at the time of their capture (as evidenced by the post captured photos)  So unless the Russians have some other facts that they have not bothered to make available to the rest of the world, they are coverered by the Geneva Convention.  IMHO, what the Russians are doing by making these accusations is trying to increase the negotiating price for  the Americans (as well as score cheap propaganda points). 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 22, 2022, 09:58:04 AM
So by their logic, the Separatists forces fighting the Ukrainians are also NOT covered under the Geneva Convention, right? Seems only fair to me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 22, 2022, 10:32:45 AM
Quote from: Gusington on June 22, 2022, 08:26:29 AM
Meanwhile, off the coast of Japan:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/22/asia/japan-russia-china-warships-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

You'd think the Russians would have learned from the last time they entered the Tsushima Strait  L:-)

There is a lot of sabre rattling going on in the Pacific.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 22, 2022, 11:09:36 AM
Russia is great at ignoring the law, facts, and history.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on June 22, 2022, 11:10:53 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on June 22, 2022, 09:58:04 AM
So by their logic, the Separatists forces fighting the Ukrainians are also NOT covered under the Geneva Convention, right? Seems only fair to me.

By their logic, their logic only applies to others.


Head of RT (formerly known as Russia Today) Margarita Simonyan spread the new theme on state TV: there is no war in Ukraine, nor is there a special operation. There is a "civil war" between Russians & "anti-Russians. "Russia is "just helping."  :uglystupid2:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1538863456656535552
https://www.thedailybeast.com/youll-never-guess-the-lie-putin-has-come-up-with-now


Old saying : if a Russian doesn't lie to you, it's only because he forgot  :).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 22, 2022, 03:43:32 PM
things are starting to get very sketchy!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVz94N6XoAIuSWK?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 22, 2022, 03:53:33 PM
the before and after of the ammo dump hit I posted

https://twitter.com/i/status/1539689831311331328
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on June 23, 2022, 11:38:08 AM
RE: Ammo dump shits the bed

Why the fuck would those soldiers in the long vid not get the fuck out of Dodge City ASAP? Lack of experience?

I have been close to several propane tank explosions and they are impressive.... I can only imagine an ammo dump
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 23, 2022, 11:47:46 AM
There have been a couple of propane accidents nearby in NJ and they flattened square blocks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: 88mmkwk on June 23, 2022, 12:05:08 PM
First combat use report of the "Grenade Offensive Attack Tool"....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10944867/Ukrainian-GOAT-injures-group-Russian-soldiers-GRENADES-setting-tripwire.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10944867/Ukrainian-GOAT-injures-group-Russian-soldiers-GRENADES-setting-tripwire.html)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 23, 2022, 12:53:53 PM
That headline made me double-take - "Ukrainian goat injures group of Russian soldiers"   ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 23, 2022, 03:20:05 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FV2cv1SXoAALM7X?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 23, 2022, 03:33:33 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FS0LcxjWYAUjrQp?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on June 23, 2022, 04:27:43 PM
Excellent tweet by Ukrainian MoD
Crank the volume
https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1539671779312033793?s=21&t=q9-v884imhjZn46OfRvhgQ
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2022, 03:32:37 PM
first use of HIMARS

https://twitter.com/i/status/1540400176040402947
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 24, 2022, 05:23:55 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2022, 03:32:37 PM
first use of HIMARS

https://twitter.com/i/status/1540400176040402947

Would rather see it from the Russian perspective.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
enjoy
russian sam misfire
https://twitter.com/i/status/1540461598124523520
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 24, 2022, 06:00:35 PM
 O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 24, 2022, 06:15:26 PM
The Russians need to start using those en masse!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on June 24, 2022, 07:53:52 PM
I'll add the soundtrack:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on June 24, 2022, 09:37:27 PM
And that, boys and girls, is why you should not let Ukrainian kids with laser pointers anywhere near your SAM sites...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 24, 2022, 10:03:50 PM
Did those sneaky Aussies attach some boomerangs onto that SAM?  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on June 25, 2022, 03:10:59 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61920708

Ukrainian forces have been ordered to withdraw from Severodonetsk, according to the top regional official.

The eastern city has endured weeks of bombardment, as Russian forces try to take complete control of the region.
A Ukrainian retreat would be significant because it would leave all of Luhansk under Russian control, except for the city of Lysychansk.

Severodonetsk has been the target of intense Russian shelling for several weeks and more recently has seen fierce street battles, with Ukrainian forces gradually pushed back to the city's industrial zones.
All bridges to the city have been destroyed by Russian troops as they attempt to cut it off from Ukrainian-held territory. Ukraine's withdrawal may be a last-ditch effort to avoid being surrounded on all sides.
"Remaining in positions that have been relentlessly shelled for months just doesn't make sense," Luhansk regional head Serhiy Haidai told Ukrainian television.
"They [Ukrainian forces] have received orders to retreat to new positions... and continue their operations from there."


(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/2922/production/_125603501_ukraine_closer_up_severodonetsk_23_06_2x640-nc-003.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 25, 2022, 07:07:24 AM
how low can you go

https://twitter.com/i/status/1540615135982673920
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 25, 2022, 10:04:36 AM
^Wow...he's literally mowing the field down.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 25, 2022, 10:30:16 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1540618298756399104
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on June 25, 2022, 01:29:13 PM
Russian planes inside Belarus fire missiles into Ukraine (https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-russia-bringing-belarus-into-war-missile-launches).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on June 26, 2022, 09:37:33 AM
If only he would put him in charge of the air force. Then the Goering comparisons would be perfect
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10954233/Beast-East-Panicking-Putin-calls-OBESE-20st-retired-general-lead-forces-Ukraine.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 26, 2022, 10:11:52 AM
this is another example of why Ukraine needs to win.
they took down a statue of lenin and replaced it with:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWLlnA2WYAIKPJL?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 26, 2022, 10:12:35 AM
What does the sign say?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on June 26, 2022, 10:46:58 AM
'DARTH VADER
To the Father of the Nation from Grateful Children
And Stepsons'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 26, 2022, 02:02:14 PM
Quote from: Con on June 26, 2022, 09:37:33 AM
If only he would put him in charge of the air force. Then the Goering comparisons would be perfect
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10954233/Beast-East-Panicking-Putin-calls-OBESE-20st-retired-general-lead-forces-Ukraine.html

That looks like a lot more than 280 lbs to me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 26, 2022, 02:52:06 PM
3750 Ukrainian drachma.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on June 26, 2022, 03:39:15 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on June 26, 2022, 02:02:14 PM
Quote from: Con on June 26, 2022, 09:37:33 AM
If only he would put him in charge of the air force. Then the Goering comparisons would be perfect
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10954233/Beast-East-Panicking-Putin-calls-OBESE-20st-retired-general-lead-forces-Ukraine.html

That looks like a lot more than 280 lbs to me.

Ukrainian snipers are like :2funny:  :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on June 26, 2022, 05:14:48 PM
Hopefully, General Pavel will only be leading and no one will have the inspiration to drop him from a plane.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 26, 2022, 05:55:26 PM
but the russians lead the way in rocket assisted parachute braking.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on June 26, 2022, 06:54:37 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on June 26, 2022, 05:14:48 PM
Hopefully, General Pavel will only be leading and no one will have the inspiration to drop him from a plane.
If he gets dropped it would be M.O.A.G
Mother of all Generals
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 26, 2022, 07:02:32 PM
Quote from: Con on June 26, 2022, 06:54:37 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on June 26, 2022, 05:14:48 PM
Hopefully, General Pavel will only be leading and no one will have the inspiration to drop him from a plane.
If he gets dropped it would be M.O.A.G
Mother of all Generals

Would that turn it into a General bombing campaign?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on June 26, 2022, 07:05:41 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on June 26, 2022, 07:02:32 PM
Quote from: Con on June 26, 2022, 06:54:37 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on June 26, 2022, 05:14:48 PM
Hopefully, General Pavel will only be leading and no one will have the inspiration to drop him from a plane.
If he gets dropped it would be M.O.A.G
Mother of all Generals

Would that turn it into a General bombing campaign?

Let's not give Putin any ideas.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 27, 2022, 07:48:19 PM
another strategic update:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1541582909177470976/photo/1
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWTLT5IWQAIARJv?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 28, 2022, 05:10:46 PM
(https://scontent.fmia1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/289218698_5641398752559896_3792458027665872934_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=gCuHq47eJQ0AX9T5m8v&_nc_ht=scontent.fmia1-2.fna&oh=00_AT_5VvkduozjerSRlidtwU-rsBLp3_3Ubq-RSmCRQdU1dQ&oe=62C169D3)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 28, 2022, 09:58:54 PM
Finland and Sweden get the green light from Turkey on NATO membership. 

They are saying no concessions to Turkey were made...not certain I believe that...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/turkey-supports-finland-and-sweden-nato-bid/ar-AAYYeyr?ocid=msedgntphdr&cvid=14c7b5b92d6d4d66924d33df10db1b00 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/turkey-supports-finland-and-sweden-nato-bid/ar-AAYYeyr?ocid=msedgntphdr&cvid=14c7b5b92d6d4d66924d33df10db1b00)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 29, 2022, 07:29:04 AM
^^Haha!  A Warthog taking out a T-34/76C.   8)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 29, 2022, 08:28:44 AM
I read on CNN that Sweden and Finland had to recognize the PKK as a terror organization, as a concession to Turkey.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 29, 2022, 01:00:02 PM
and access to upgrade their f-16s to block 70 capability.
Im fine with both if it gets them in NATO.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 29, 2022, 01:13:56 PM
How much equipment do Sweden and Finland have that is proprietary? I'm gonna guess at least 90% of their hardware is NATO/Western, at least.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 29, 2022, 01:49:31 PM
So much for Putin's grandmaster plan:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61983555

L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 29, 2022, 01:53:38 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 29, 2022, 01:13:56 PM
How much equipment do Sweden and Finland have that is proprietary? I'm gonna guess at least 90% of their hardware is NATO/Western, at least.

they've both been NATO intergrated for a long time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 29, 2022, 01:56:58 PM
I know but I've seen reports saying they do have some of their own equipment...most curious about Finland as I know more about Sweden (Saab etc.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on June 29, 2022, 02:35:46 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 29, 2022, 01:56:58 PM
I know but I've seen reports saying they do have some of their own equipment...most curious about Finland as I know more about Sweden (Saab etc.)

https://armedforces.eu/Sweden

https://armedforces.eu/Finland
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 29, 2022, 02:49:34 PM
both use Leopards 2s, Finland uses F-18s and the Saab Gripen is used by other NATO countries.
both countries artillery are 155mm NATO standard.
there are a few bits of kit that are country specific but thats also common among NATO countries.
the important thing is that they're on the same page in all the important catagories.
Title: Russians withdraw from Snake Island
Post by: MengJiao on June 30, 2022, 05:38:08 AM
Russian forces withdraw from Snake Island
From CNN's Olga Voitovych in Kyiv and Anna Chernova in Dubai

Russian forces have left Snake Island in the Black Sea, the Ukrainian Armed Forces said Thursday, after they carried out what they said was a "successful" operation.

On Monday, the Ukrainian military said it hit a second missile system on the island, as well as multiple Russian personnel in their efforts to keep them at bay.

In a short post on Telegram the Operation Command South on Thursday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that "the enemy hastily evacuated the remnants of the garrison in two speedboats and probably left the island."

Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said in a Telegram post that Ukraine's armed forces had "conducted a remarkable operation."


Well...the Russians have withdrawn from Snake Island.



However, Russia gave a slightly different narrative of the events on the island.

Lieutenant General of the Russian Armed Forces, and spokesperson of the Russian army, Igor Konashenkov said at a briefing that Russian forces left the island "as a gesture of goodwill."

He added that "the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation finished fulfilling the assigned tasks in Snake Island and withdrew the garrison that had been operating there."

Konashenkov intimated that the removal of Russian troops should allow an easing for the passage of grain, "this solution will prevent Kyiv from speculating on an impending grocery crisis citing the inability to export grain due to total control of the northwestern part of the Black Sea by Russia."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 30, 2022, 07:30:44 AM
Meanwhile, China complains about the possible return of SEATO.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-rails-against-nato-as-asian-rivals-attend-summit-for-first-time/ar-AAYZOsd?ocid=msedgntphdr&cvid=fa086f1d94924d32826801a102015503

Well, if you keep sabre-rattling about the expansion of your communist regime by military and other warlike power, you can expect an anti-communist team of nations to join up again, China!

(Today I learned that SEATO didn't even last to 1978. I really thought it had gone through more of the Cold War.)
Title: Re: Russians withdraw from Snake Island
Post by: MengJiao on June 30, 2022, 07:47:57 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on June 30, 2022, 05:38:08 AM


However, Russia gave a slightly different narrative of the events on the island.

Lieutenant General of the Russian Armed Forces, and spokesperson of the Russian army, Igor Konashenkov said at a briefing that Russian forces left the island "as a gesture of goodwill."

He added that "the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation finished fulfilling the assigned tasks in Snake Island and withdrew the garrison that had been operating there."

Konashenkov intimated that the removal of Russian troops should allow an easing for the passage of grain, "this solution will prevent Kyiv from speculating on an impending grocery crisis citing the inability to export grain due to total control of the northwestern part of the Black Sea by Russia."


  As usual, the Russians come up with something just plain weird:  They withdrew as a gesture of goodwill to prevent a "grocery crisis"...of course, they could withdraw everywhere else and prevent a lot of things, but no, apparently.  And of course Ukraine is supposed to be the bad guys now because they are going to "speculate" (ie charge more for whatever they manage to export?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on June 30, 2022, 08:08:54 AM
This is a test. This is only test.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on June 30, 2022, 08:11:12 AM
Quote from: Gusington on June 29, 2022, 08:28:44 AM
I read on CNN that Sweden and Finland had to recognize the PKK as a terror organization, as a concession to Turkey.

https://jpost.pressreader.com/article/281848647292612
QuoteIn an embarrassing moment for an alliance formed to confront threats from authoritarian regimes, NATO members had to beg authoritarian Turkey to allow it to admit two democracies.

Finland and Sweden had faced the bizarre prospect of being banned from the military alliance at the whim of Turkey, which is the world's largest jailer of journalists, and a country that crushes dissent and regularly commits human rights abuses in Syria and Iraq. However, as a NATO member, it has been given control over which countries can join the alliance because of the nature of NATO rules and bureaucracy.

As such, Ankara now uses every opportunity to blackmail NATO, refusing requests or threatening other members, to get what it wants.

Its latest stunt involved the desire by Sweden and Finland to join the alliance in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Turkey works closely with Russia and purchases its S-400 surface-toair missile system. Ankara indicated it wouldn't agree to let the two Norwegian democracies join NATO unless they agreed to crack down on what Turkey deems as "terrorists."

The article is a fair assessment of Turkey and its behaviours.  Pretty egregious is the fact of near co-habitation with ISIS and al-Qaeda.  " The fact the leaders of ISIS have been found in Syria within shouting distance of Turkey's border; that the US regularly has to carry out airstrikes against al-Qaeda and other extremists near where Turkish forces are located in Syria"

I don't have an opinion of whether Erdogan will be gone next year.  His two five year term limits will be up but authoritarians seem to like to get around such legal niceties.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 30, 2022, 09:16:59 AM
Just the mention of SEATO really brings me back.

Russia is trying to push gestures of good will?? The world really has gone nuts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on June 30, 2022, 09:33:10 AM
Quote from: Gusington on June 30, 2022, 09:16:59 AM
Just the mention of SEATO really brings me back.

Russia is trying to push gestures of good will?? The world really has gone nuts.

   It's supposed to make the Ukrainians look bad because (I'm not sure -- they are invading themselves?)...because the Russians would just stop and leave if the Ukrainians let them stay and take
everything (?hmmm?).  Not sure exactly why this is all Ukraine's fault if the Russians leave a few places or even declare victory or even say "Hey, Finland in NATO is fine, but we will take vengeance on
something."  Very puzzling what the logic is supposed to be.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 30, 2022, 09:43:55 AM
Maybe it's beyond us to understand...I dunno :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2022, 10:32:33 AM
we make the mistake of thinking rationally when dealing with russia. 
dont do that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on June 30, 2022, 10:52:22 AM
And those messages are really only intended for internal use in Russia.

You have to be an idiot to believe the lies : Ex-F1 boss Bernie Ecclestone says he'd still 'take a bullet' for Vladimir Putin, "Because he's a first class person and what he's doing is something that he believed was the right thing he was doing for Russia."  :idiot2:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/ex-f1-boss-bernie-ecclestone-27362623
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 30, 2022, 11:04:16 AM
WTF Bernie??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2022, 11:31:56 AM
that fucking idiot checked out of reality a looooooong time ago.
so glad he's not in charge of F1 anymore.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Millipede on June 30, 2022, 03:37:27 PM
Bernie Ecclestone is a horses' ass and always has been. Ignore him!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2022, 04:02:55 PM
a very interesting thread to read

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1542468816382435328
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 01, 2022, 08:57:13 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2022, 04:02:55 PM
a very interesting thread to read

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1542468816382435328

The full article with more details (and links) can be found here: https://tldrussia.substack.com/p/why-we-fight

"But the fact that Western leaders cannot talk openly about participating in the war means that they cannot talk openly about what their aims are, about what would constitute victory, and thus why the sacrifices being asked of Western societies are worth it. As a result, there can be no open conversation, as befits democratic societies, about how this war should be prosecuted. And as a further result, when the emotional fatigue eventually sets in — and it will set in — there will be no intellectual commitment to victory."

I'm going to speculate that by June 30th, when Sam posted his article and analysis, emotional fatigue has already set in... ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 01, 2022, 09:02:13 AM
Meanwhile, speaking of Russia doing screwy things, grain shipments, Ukraine, and Turkey (and Syria):

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-ships-going-dark-faking-paperwork-grain-crimea-2022-6

Step 1: steal procure grain from the Ukraine.
Step 2: ship the grain out of Crimea through a NATO sanctioned (-against) port.
Step 3: ship to NATO member Turkey. (Edited to add: and with Turkey's permission, through the Dards to the Med, to Syria.)
Step 4: turn off your IFF and fake your papers to deliver the goods.
Step 5: hope satellites don't exist and/or no one is interested in watching the Black Sea from cameras high above...??
Step 6: profit.


With the timing from Turkey's acceptance of the remaining Scandanavians into NATO (still to be completed), I wonder if this was supposed to be part of the backdoor favor exchange.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 01, 2022, 09:08:28 AM
This might be old news, but found this while following out a link to A-10 Warthog jockeys practicing landing/takeoffs on a country road in the Michigan woods.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-has-himars-and-is-using-them/

Yes of course obviously I'll include the article on the A-10 jockeys: https://taskandpurpose.com/news/air-force-a-10-michigan-highway-landing/

(T&P looks pretty nice as a military mag btw!)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on July 01, 2022, 09:30:22 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 01, 2022, 09:02:13 AM
Meanwhile, speaking of Russia doing screwy things, grain shipments, Ukraine, and Turkey (and Syria):

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-ships-going-dark-faking-paperwork-grain-crimea-2022-6

Step 1: steal procure grain from the Ukraine.
Step 2: ship the grain out of Crimea through a NATO sanctioned (-against) port.
Step 3: ship to NATO member Turkey. (Edited to add: and with Turkey's permission, through the Dards to the Med, to Syria.)
Step 4: turn off your IFF and fake your papers to deliver the goods.
Step 5: hope satellites don't exist and/or no one is interested in watching the Black Sea from cameras high above...??
Step 6: profit.


With the timing from Turkey's acceptance of the remaining Scandanavians into NATO (still to be completed), I wonder if this was supposed to be part of the backdoor favor exchange.

Nothing but countries showing goodwill getting the grain to a better home  >:(.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 01, 2022, 10:01:38 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 01, 2022, 08:57:13 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2022, 04:02:55 PM
a very interesting thread to read

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1542468816382435328

The full article with more details (and links) can be found here: https://tldrussia.substack.com/p/why-we-fight

"But the fact that Western leaders cannot talk openly about participating in the war means that they cannot talk openly about what their aims are, about what would constitute victory, and thus why the sacrifices being asked of Western societies are worth it. As a result, there can be no open conversation, as befits democratic societies, about how this war should be prosecuted. And as a further result, when the emotional fatigue eventually sets in — and it will set in — there will be no intellectual commitment to victory."

I'm going to speculate that by June 30th, when Sam posted his article and analysis, emotional fatigue has already set in... ;)

    Ironically, the problem for the West is that they have already won.  Russia lost the moment they attacked and the West won back in 2014 when they started supporting the Ukrainians.
Even if the Russians had overrun all of Ukraine in 3 days as planned, the resulting chaos and economic disruption would not have benefitted them.  Before they attacked, they were in a
pretty good spot -- holding the Crimea and selling lots of oil and gas to Europe.
    As many commentators noted as soon as the war started, the problem was not winning the war, but getting Russia adjusted to its new status as a colony of China and a wayward client of Turkey and India.  The sad (saddish ironically, i guess) fact is that the longer Russia conducts this war, the worse the outcome is for Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on July 01, 2022, 12:54:44 PM
Good article on the A-10 Jason.

I've heard from other news sources of the military practicing landing birds on civilian roads. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 01, 2022, 12:58:00 PM
The Russkies have lost the bid to conquer Ukraine but they're hardly in bad shape right now. The Russian economy is in the best shape in years, the Ruble's stronger than the Dollar right now and they're selling oil to everybody who'll buy it, making more than enough to continue to finance their war of attrition. Meanwhile it's the West who's scrambling to come-up with new ways to hurt them while our economies are shrinking. A serious Recession would break the will of the West to continue to support another costly foreign war for years to come without victory in sight. Sad but true.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on July 01, 2022, 01:01:01 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 01, 2022, 12:58:00 PM
The Russkies have lost the bid to conquer Ukraine but they're hardly in bad shape right now. The Russian economy is in the best shape in years, the Ruble's stronger than the Dollar right now and they're selling oil to everybody who'll buy it, making more than enough to continue to finance their war of attrition. Meanwhile it's the West who's scrambling to come-up with new ways to hurt them while our economies are shrinking. A serious Recession would break the will of the West to continue to support another costly foreign war for years to come without victory in sight. Sad but true.

Citation for this statement?  From what I understand their economy is in shambles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 01, 2022, 01:11:55 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 01, 2022, 12:58:00 PM
The Russkies have lost the bid to conquer Ukraine but they're hardly in bad shape right now. The Russian economy is in the best shape in years, the Ruble's stronger than the Dollar right now and they're selling oil to everybody who'll buy it, making more than enough to continue to finance their war of attrition. Meanwhile it's the West who's scrambling to come-up with new ways to hurt them while our economies are shrinking. A serious Recession would break the will of the West to continue to support another costly foreign war for years to come without victory in sight. Sad but true.

   Our economies are not likely to shrink much...maybe a mild recession.  The Russians are selling oil at a discount to India and China so they aren't doing well there.  Plus Russia has lost an immense amount
of prestige and credibility and can't even stop Finland from joining NATO -- so they've lost whatever deterent buffer they had there.   They also are probably going to lose most of their arms sales market and their current regime is likely to collapse due to all that alone even if their economy keeps chugging.  And remember how small the Russian GDP was even before the war: about 1.4 Trillion.  China's is 14 trillion and the US is 21 Trillion.  So even without the rest of the West Russia vs. the US economy is really small.  In the end, the more attrition there is, the worse it is for Russia.  They are wrecking their army, navy and airforce to keep up a bluff that was already called.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 01, 2022, 01:40:15 PM
Also, though I don't have sources to back the idea that Russia's economy is doing better than it has for years, that isn't mutually exclusive to the idea that their economy is in shambles.

I can give a relevant example. A few days or weeks before Hitler invaded Russia, the Soviet department of agriculture reported to the Politburo, that Soviet meat production from cattle had reached the highest level since 1917.

So on one hand, the Soviet cattle economy was doing better than it had for 24 years. On the other hand, they had finally at long last leveled up their meat production to be equal to THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AT THE END OF THE PRIOR WORLD WAR WHICH COLLAPSED RUSSIA SO HARD THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY A CRIME GANG USING FALSE NAMES COULD TAKE OVER THE GOVERNMENT OF A GREAT POWER!

Both ways of looking at it would be totally true and useful -- in context.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 01, 2022, 02:30:58 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 01, 2022, 01:40:15 PM
Also, though I don't have sources to back the idea that Russia's economy is doing better than it has for years, that isn't mutually exclusive to the idea that their economy is in shambles.


   I don't see how they can be doing better if they are in default and production is dropping.  Plus they are running out of weapons such as missiles.

   Newsweek reported yesterday that:
1) Russia was defaulting on its debts (not good for credit)

and 2) production is dropping in manufacturing:

Above all, car production has suffered, and it's now down by 96.7 percent compared to 2021. Production of trucks plunged by 39.3 percent, that of diesel and gasoline engines by 57 percent, that of diesel locomotives by 63.2 percent and that of freight wagons by 51.8 percent.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 01, 2022, 04:09:43 PM
the rubles value vs the dollar is also very artificial as it cant be traded in foreign markets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on July 01, 2022, 04:15:45 PM
Economies are like massive oil tankers. It takes a long time for them to crash and or take off.

Meanwhile the Russians can do things to keep It going but only by hurting themselves immensely in the long run. Think setting your house on fire when you are cold. Sure your going to be warm for the next 12 hours but after that.
Here are some aspects to consider
No company is going to invest any capital projects in Russia
They illegally seized almost all their planes which means that they have about 12 months before they start becoming unflyable. This is a huge hit to your economy if you can't fly within your own geography
All external technology has to be bought on grey markets ie chips etc. not scalable and def much more expensive
No oil and Gas investment so that kicks them out of Upto date drilling and extraction technology. The Russian homegrown programs were always inefficient and needed massive western investment and know how to run backed by an extensive list of specialized support vendors. They will be like iraq and venezuela during sanctions shortly
Massive brain drain as any young educated Russians flee for other countries
No biotech semi AI fusion or other transformational research
The list goes on and on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 01, 2022, 05:07:27 PM
 <:-)

fuck russia
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 01, 2022, 08:58:11 PM
^Hahaha it always comes back to the basics.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 01, 2022, 09:04:15 PM
There were predictions, when the invasion began, that Putin's government would collapse by summer. He's still there. I don't see any Bread Riots beginning in Petrograd. Nor any political opposition not already in jail. Nor have I heard of any recent mutinies among the military forces. I think Putin's job is safe until whatever's killing him finally catches-up with him. And until then he will continue the current low-level war against Ukraine and probably get away with it. As long as the price of oil stays high, the Russkies will have people to sell it to and money to spend on whoever they want to fight with.

Zelensky said the other day the cost of the war will be $5 Billion-a-month. Raise your hands whoever wants to pick-up that tab. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 01, 2022, 11:43:51 PM
we were spending $300 million a day in Iraq.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 02, 2022, 04:45:41 PM
Real life Ukrainian Wolverines:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/02/europe/russia-advance-zeroing-intl-cmd/index.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 02, 2022, 07:12:31 PM
Slava Ukraniai!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on July 02, 2022, 10:24:46 PM
War truly is hell.

This is gun camera footage of a Russian KA-52 getting a kill on a moving Ukrainian vehicle. it also shows the demise of surviving occupants. I can't say i've ever seen video like this before. Discretion advised.

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-russian-ka-52-destroys-ukrainian-vehicle/?ref=asmdss&fbclid=IwAR1_fXrf0401ONV1Fztlmny6EGzJnMtBYGLiJWXOKR4kwkvPdxzKoLhFVi0 (https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-russian-ka-52-destroys-ukrainian-vehicle/?ref=asmdss&fbclid=IwAR1_fXrf0401ONV1Fztlmny6EGzJnMtBYGLiJWXOKR4kwkvPdxzKoLhFVi0)

Russian radio chatter is roughly translated in the link below the video.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 03, 2022, 10:59:56 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 01, 2022, 09:04:15 PM
There were predictions, when the invasion began, that Putin's government would collapse by summer. He's still there. I don't see any Bread Riots beginning in Petrograd. Nor any political opposition not already in jail. Nor have I heard of any recent mutinies among the military forces. I think Putin's job is safe until whatever's killing him finally catches-up with him. And until then he will continue the current low-level war against Ukraine and probably get away with it. As long as the price of oil stays high, the Russkies will have people to sell it to and money to spend on whoever they want to fight with.

Zelensky said the other day the cost of the war will be $5 Billion-a-month. Raise your hands whoever wants to pick-up that tab.

  5 billion a day is one 8000th of the GDP of the US plus Europe.  The Russians can sell oil, but only at a discount, so that's a huge opportunity cost
on a dwindling resource.  Economically the US plus NATO has them at 40 to one and the odds against Russia are
getting worse all the time.  If Putin had fallen sooner, they would now be much better off since they would no doubt have stopped this mess.
The longer Putin stays and the longer this goes on, the worse is for Russia and the easier it will be (once they stop)
to get them to agree to try to be a normal rogue state instead of a suicidal rogue state.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on July 03, 2022, 08:50:56 PM
The biggest asset for Russia is their state run media.  Number one reason they have been able to hold it together this long.  Those bastards in Russia are so brainwashed with their bullshit propaganda, it's hilarious the stuff they are fed and they eat it up.

It would take something drastic to get through those mindless zombies.  Like Ukraine recapturing Crimea, and even that would get spun into some Russian bullshit.  I'm really surprised we aren't exploring more counter intelligence options to break through the propaganda, or we are but it has no effect on a Russian zombie brain (or lack of).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2022, 12:37:29 AM
Quote from: Skoop on July 03, 2022, 08:50:56 PM
Number one reason they have been able to hold it together this long.  Those bastards in Russia are so brainwashed with their bullshit propaganda, it's hilarious the stuff they are fed and they eat it up.

this applies to so many things right now.l   :-\
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 04, 2022, 12:58:02 AM
Understanding the Russian economy has always been hard.  Two reasonably balanced assessments come from NPR and from The Economist.  Both suggest that the Russian economy is hurting worse than the Western economies, but not nearly as badly as was forecast a few months ago.  Both conclude that sanctions won't be nearly enough to dissuade Putin or the Kremlin from their adventure in Ukraine any time soon, but both also agree that the long-term impact on the Russian economy could be extremely harmful.

https://www.wksu.org/npr-news/npr-news/2022-07-01/are-sanctions-actually-hurting-russias-economy-heres-what-you-need-to-know

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/06/10/russias-economy-appears-to-be-back-on-track

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 04, 2022, 07:37:59 AM
I watch the Money shows on FOX and CNBC and they reported 2 weeks ago that the Ruble was the strongest it had been in 7 years vs the Dollar and other currencies. The G7 countries met this past week to find new way to sanction Russia because the previous ones were having less than expected results, the new sanctions on Russian gold followed.

As long as Putin's got the money, he'll continue the war. In fact he's probably saving money now that the war has shrunk. He doesn't give a fig about Russia or Russians, long term if he's only got short-term time left to live. Nor does he care about leaving Russia a satellite of China. I think he sees it as a choice, either a satellite of China or a satellite of the West, and he's chosen his neighbors to the east.

Star's right, there's a whole lot of brain-washed people out there. That's why it's so important not to dismiss out of hand anyone's thoughts or opinions whether you agree with them or not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 04, 2022, 08:19:57 AM
Quote from: Gusington on July 01, 2022, 08:58:11 PM
^Hahaha it always comes back to the basics.

   The statements by Putin noted below are kind of puzzling -- not as puzzling as some, but still -- it looks like he is sort of declaring victory and no one is noticing.  Note also that, while two new regional
offensives seem to be proposed, the real point may be to explain why the attacks in the center are being reduced while those forces rest -- ie, that axis is stopping, having achieved a "victory" that
Putin can't seem to quite accept himself.  Moreover -- having sort of personally claimed a victory of some kind, the newly announced objectives are due to the generals and not Putin which suggests they
may not have the aroma of "victory" that Putin wants to absorb from ceasing one line of attack.  Kind of paradoxical -- we know it's a victory because the Russians at least are claiming to plan to attack elsewhere.  Meanwhile, it seems quite possible that the Russians are firing missiles at Belorus and their own territory in a larger version of shooting RPGs at their own headquarters in the "breakaway" regions in eastern Moldovia.




   Putin says generals have proposed "development of offensive operations" and forces must proceed per plans
From CNN's Anna Chernova

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that he received a proposal from the Russian army generals on the development of the "offensive operations" in Ukraine.

"Col. General Alexander Pavlovich Lapin and Army General Sergey Vladimirovich Surovikin also reported to me today on the progress in fulfilling the tasks assigned to them and their proposals for the development of offensive operations," Putin told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at meeting in the Kremlin.
The Ministry of Defense "keeps in view" all the proposals of the commanders in the field, Putin added, saying that while military units that participated in the operation in the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) should rest, other formations, including the East and West groups, must proceed with tasks according to plans.

This comes as Putin congratulated Russian troops for "achieving victory" in Ukraine's Luhansk region.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on July 04, 2022, 12:20:49 PM
Perun had a myth buster episode on YouTube last week and one of the things he pointed out is the medias constant reporting of who seems to be winning and loosing like we are watching a sporting event.  I've noticed this in both western and Russian media over loosing lpr.  Perun stated if you look at the maps from a couple months ago where Russia occupied large swaths of land north of Ukraine and looked at maps today after lpr fall.  Russia occupies less of Ukraine today than it did in March April. So Ukraine is still winning, don't forget that nor should the western media falling into the doom and gloom fear mongering to get viewers.

I've been saying weeks ago Ukraine should make a tactical withdrawal.  Why fight Russia in the one thing they can actually do.....sit in static positions and shell with arty like it's wwii.  Ukraine should regroup for more mobile operations and expose the week Russian infantry in maneuver warfare.  Look for counter attacks towards Kherson.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 05, 2022, 10:20:58 AM
The lack of withdrawal may be: 1.) motivated by trying to avoid losing political morale by ceding land even temporarily; and 2.) a concern that the withdrawals could not be made safely without the Russians prosecuting the withdrawal, catching the Uks out of defensive position.

One wonders what would have happened had Putin started with this limited focus grinding strategy and then switched over a couple months later to knocking on all doors instead of vice versa! (But of course the point to the original attempt was to try to force a political collapse from initial stress. High reward for few Russian casualties if that had worked.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 05, 2022, 12:24:07 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 05, 2022, 10:20:58 AM
The lack of withdrawal may be: 1.) motivated by trying to avoid losing political morale by ceding land even temporarily; and 2.) a concern that the withdrawals could not be made safely without the Russians prosecuting the withdrawal, catching the Uks out of defensive position.

One wonders what would have happened had Putin started with this limited focus grinding strategy and then switched over a couple months later to knocking on all doors instead of vice versa! (But of course the point to the original attempt was to try to force a political collapse from initial stress. High reward for few Russian casualties if that had worked.)

  According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian criticism of the recent slow advances by Russian forces is that Russia is fighting the war on terms imposed by Ukraine and that the Ukrainians are deliberately staging these defensive battles to inflict maximum losses on the Russians.  So (at least from the Russian point of view) the whole attrition to the end of time plan is sort of not working and the end of time is nowhere in sight.  So the lack of withdrawal might be just a way of massacring the Russians (at least from the Russian point of view).

  So, maybe from the Russian point of view, if Putin had focused on grinding from the beginning, the Russians might have already run out of ammo and had heavier losses for fewer gains (for example they wouldn't have ground their way to Kherson at their current rate -- remember, early on the advance from Crimea was pretty fast and there's been no Russian quick withdrawal there though the Ukrainians are driving them back slowly there anyway).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 05, 2022, 03:05:12 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 04, 2022, 07:37:59 AM
I watch the Money shows on FOX and CNBC and they reported 2 weeks ago that the Ruble was the strongest it had been in 7 years vs the Dollar and other currencies. The G7 countries met this past week to find new way to sanction Russia because the previous ones were having less than expected results, the new sanctions on Russian gold followed.

As long as Putin's got the money, he'll continue the war. In fact he's probably saving money now that the war has shrunk. He doesn't give a fig about Russia or Russians, long term if he's only got short-term time left to live. Nor does he care about leaving Russia a satellite of China. I think he sees it as a choice, either a satellite of China or a satellite of the West, and he's chosen his neighbors to the east.

Star's right, there's a whole lot of brain-washed people out there. That's why it's so important not to dismiss out of hand anyone's thoughts or opinions whether you agree with them or not.

The Economist article I cited above gives a lot of details on the value of the Russian ruble.

QuoteAccording to estimates from the Institute of International Finance, a trade association for banks, Russia's earnings from exports over the past three months were 65% higher than in the same period last year. Imports meanwhile, some of which are subject to Western sanctions, are down by 20%. The net result is a trade balance for the past three months nearly four times higher than a year before. That has provided Russia with plenty of cash to prop up its currency and fuel its war.

The article also provides a lot of context on the larger economic picture.  A one-sentence summary if it's too long to read:  "Russia's economy appears to be back on track.
But inflation has jumped, some goods are short and the long-term outlook is precarious."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 05, 2022, 09:51:26 PM
That's two sentences but who's counting?  ;)  I don't think Putin cares long term or short term, he wants a win against his, 'Traditional Enemies' going back to his KGB days, the West. His legacy to his people will be suffering and isolation but he will see it as victory against the foes who destroyed his precious Soviet Union. And as long as nobody's got the testicles to stand-up to him, or the strength to survive standing-up to him, this will continue.

Russia failed in Afghanistan but this is another time and a whole other type of war. The effort may have to be generational and I don't see the West staying interested that long.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 05, 2022, 10:48:10 PM
I agree with you on both the sentence count and Putin's motivation.   :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 06, 2022, 06:38:34 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 05, 2022, 09:51:26 PM
The effort may have to be generational and I don't see the West staying interested that long.

this is why there have been so many large aid packages getting passed now.  only a fraction has actually been spent and the overall sum will be available for a while.  hopefully long enough to last through our short attention span.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 06, 2022, 08:06:16 AM
Meanwhile, some hearts break:

QuoteModel who joined Ukraine army as 'elite sniper' is killed in a Russian air strike

An elite sniper and former model has been killed in a Russian airstrike in Ukraine. Thalita do Valle, 39, died while fighting in the city of Kharkiv on June 30.

She had joined the war effort alongside former Brazilian Army soldier Douglas Burigo. Douglas, 40, also died in last week's airstrike, reportedly after he went into a bunker to try find Thalita.

The pair had travelled from Brazil to support Ukrainian forces. Thalita had previous experience in warzones, and had fought against the Islamic State in Iraq.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 06, 2022, 08:18:21 AM
Beware! The Second Strategic Echelon is mobilizing! ......sort of!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-prisoners-offered-freedom-if-they-join-fight-against-ukraine-report/ar-AAZdlec?ocid=msedgntphdr&cvid=a5f56d15d44f473c8c1019d453ec1fa7

Well, that's enough for a "Black Platoon" I guess...?

But hey, the pay is good at 200,000 rubles for six month's service with a German-named merc group that the Kremlin denies even exists and besides they definitely don't use them!

Quote200 thousand rubles ($3,446)

...oh.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 06, 2022, 08:28:07 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 06, 2022, 06:38:34 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 05, 2022, 09:51:26 PM
The effort may have to be generational and I don't see the West staying interested that long.

this is why there have been so many large aid packages getting passed now.  only a fraction has actually been spent and the overall sum will be available for a while.  hopefully long enough to last through our short attention span.

  Since the West can afford to massively out-spend Russia and will need to defeat Russia to get things back to normal (Ukrainian grain, Russian oil, gas and so on), the West actually has no other
rational choice except to prepare to massively out-spend and eventually defeat Russia.  Moreover, despite taking some ground in the Donbas and declaring victory (rather anticlimatically), things
overall are not going that well for Russia -- they have lost Snake Island, nothing is happening in Moldova, Kalingrad is blockaded, as are the Straits out of the Black Sea, Finland is joining NATO, Khazakstan is not offering any support, the Rubble went up because Russia isn't importing much these days and the Ukrainians are getting more and more weapons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on July 06, 2022, 10:05:11 AM
I'm telling you this Ukraine thing is just a distraction.

I'm not going to post the article I just read but go ahead and Google "Iran China Russia military exercise latin america".

We really need to be paying attention to what's going on in our backyard.  Is it a coincidence that we're draining dollars and oil from our national reserves at an unprecedented rate?

I know I must sound crazy but I have to sound the alarm even if I am wrong.  I'll take whatever abuse you want to throw at me but my conscience is clear. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 06, 2022, 10:21:17 AM
Massively outspending the Russians sounds good in print but, how massively? Considering America will very likely be in an official Recession in another couple of weeks, I'm for spending all that money we've ALREADY allocated first. Then we can talk about the next massive spend. Let's make sure it's going where, and to who, it's supposed to before throwing more money at a bottomless hole.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 06, 2022, 10:37:33 AM
well thats the point Slash.  the money is already allocated so even if the gop takes the mid terms and stops aid, theres already enough there for a while.  its also worth noting that theres lots of money thats going directly into replenishing our stockpiles with brand new kit.  the stuff weve been giving the Ukraine comes from our oldest stocks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 06, 2022, 10:39:35 AM
as to W8s point Ill just mention that the US is more then capable of dealing with the world as it is now and the near future.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 06, 2022, 10:45:43 AM
a darwin award contender. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1544704505094217729
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 06, 2022, 01:30:03 PM
Old news, but WSJ has a nice explanatory video on the Russian tank "jack-in-the-box" turret pop-off effect.

If you haven't had the chance to be read-in on the subject elsewhere, this is a good place to start:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-russian-tanks-are-exploding-in-ukraine/vi-AAZfT6J?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5cb36de8ca1a4df7bbcfbae698826889 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-russian-tanks-are-exploding-in-ukraine/vi-AAZfT6J?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5cb36de8ca1a4df7bbcfbae698826889)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on July 06, 2022, 02:49:17 PM
I can see it makes it hard to repair if there are secondary explosions but does anyone know the chances of crew survival after a penetration if there aren't secondaries?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 06, 2022, 04:28:55 PM
lets go with ZERO  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 06, 2022, 09:52:48 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on July 06, 2022, 10:05:11 AM
I'm telling you this Ukraine thing is just a distraction.

I'm not going to post the article I just read but go ahead and Google "Iran China Russia military exercise latin america".

We really need to be paying attention to what's going on in our backyard.  Is it a coincidence that we're draining dollars and oil from our national reserves at an unprecedented rate?

I know I must sound crazy but I have to sound the alarm even if I am wrong.  I'll take whatever abuse you want to throw at me but my conscience is clear.

I think you should start an "Iran, China and Russia" in Latin America topic...I think it is going to be a growing thing.

But personally, I am not too worried about it. Abraham Lincoln's observation has aged well: "All the armies of Europe and Asia...could not by force take a drink from the Ohio River or make a track on the Blue Ridge in the trial of a thousand years."

The reality is that if China and Russian hold a sniper competition in Honduras, its small stuff...a news distraction... What is real!!! We have RIMPAC!!!! Without China!!!! Most of the Pacific Rim together...except China!!!  That is what's real!!!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/watch-world-s-largest-naval-exercise-led-by-u-s-without-china/vi-AAZi2uZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d0677427602b473593163d9d3922cacc (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/watch-world-s-largest-naval-exercise-led-by-u-s-without-china/vi-AAZi2uZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d0677427602b473593163d9d3922cacc)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 07, 2022, 09:42:59 AM
You are right Tank. Lincoln's words echo through our history. The rest of that quote read, "If destruction is our lot then WE are its' authors. As a Free Nation, we shall either live forever or die by suicide". As pertinent today as when it was spoken. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 07, 2022, 11:51:40 AM
Heck yeah SEATO returns! -- though RIMPAC sounds admittedly more awesome.

Now for Gus Team Seato.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 07, 2022, 12:11:04 PM
I've been able to do a lot more studies into RIMPAC since my divorce, that's for sure.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 07, 2022, 01:08:19 PM
^Is that a euphemism?

I don't know if I can afford a deployment to the Pacific.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 07, 2022, 01:27:19 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 07, 2022, 01:08:19 PM
^Is that a euphemism?


Always. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 07, 2022, 01:49:54 PM
 8)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 07, 2022, 04:51:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 06, 2022, 10:45:43 AM
a darwin award contender. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1544704505094217729
In Soviet Russia, rocket warheads and fuel destroy in place you.
May he succeed in his efforts next time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 07, 2022, 07:53:11 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on July 06, 2022, 02:49:17 PM
I can see it makes it hard to repair if there are secondary explosions but does anyone know the chances of crew survival after a penetration if there aren't secondaries?

I think it varies a lot depending on the tank and what destroyed it.  I don't really know which ammunition types are most in style for tank-killing weapons these days.  A lot of this knowledge might be outdated, but here's what I've read...

A simple AP round passing through the armor of a tank and entering the crew compartment will almost certainly kill somebody, but how many people it kills depends on how much it bounces around the inside of the tank and what it knocks loose to bounce around the inside of the tank.  A round that goes into the hull and knocks the engine out or catches the engine on fire without triggering an immediate explosion might give everybody time to get out.   Unless the impact of the weapon warped hatches or otherwise trapped crewmen inside the vehicle.

An HEAT round/missile that gets a clean kill shoots a jet of superheated plasma into the inside of the tank, where it almost certainly starts fires and burns everybody (likely cooking them alive, also triggering very quick secondary explosions).  An HEAT round that only penetrates the engine compartment might or might not do the same amount of damage to the crew, but the likelihood of fire is very high.  It's then a question of whether the tank blows up before the crew gets out.

Safe stowage of ammunition has been a huge factor in preventing tanks  from "brewing up" for a long time now.  While the Sherman didn't have the armor to withstand heavy anti-tank guns by June 1944, it did have much safer stowage practices for ammunition (shells stored in water, etc.).  So, while a lot of Shermans got shot apart, the crew was often more likely to survive than their German counterparts.

I forget the details, but I know that the Abrams also sacrifices some rate-of-fire for safer ammunition stowage.  This is a marked contrast to the Russian tanks.

The US did a much better job than the Wehrmacht at retrieving and repairing tanks, in part because the Sherman was a butt-simple tank (i.e., easy to fix and highly standardized) and in part because they allocated a lot more heavy-duty vehicles to tank retrieval and repair.  But also because they were a bit less likely to have catastrophic fires.  If you want a great book that provides some very detailed and autobiographical accounts of what happened when US and German tanks got knocked out in 1944-1945, I heartily recommend Adam Makos' Spearhead.

My sense is that the introduction of HEAT technology made tanks a lot more dangerous for the crews.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: matt3916 on July 07, 2022, 08:42:43 PM
That would be "Spearhead" by Adam Makos.   :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 08, 2022, 02:24:45 AM
Spall liners are very important in modern afv.
https://custommaterials.com/what-are-spall-liners/

As to the M4 original ammo stowage was bad. http://www.theshermantank.com/sherman/the-shermans-flaw-what-was-wrong-with-the-tank-and-stayed-wrong/
QuoteYes, its early ammo storage was a flaw, storing ammo in the sponsons, and all around the base of the turret basket made it easy to brew the tank up with an ammo fire. They figured this out, and changed the ammo configuration and put it all in armored boxes. Most tanks already issued received these changes in kit form.  When the large hatch hull went into production, for the most part, these tanks got wet storage in the hull, under the turret basket, with water jackets. This location proved to be a very good place for the ammo, and fires in penetrated Shermans went down drastically. The location was far more important than the wet part of the storage, and it was dropped post-war.  Some crews objected to the changes in ammo storage, a pre quick fix Sherman with 12 to 14 ready rounds within easy reach of the loader could pump out a very large volume of fire for a fairly long time, the new ammo layout really slowed the rate of fire down in a sustained fight. Because of this, some crews ignored the new ammo regulations and stored as much loose ammo as they could in the turret basket.  These crews were willing to risk the higher chance of catastrophic fire, to keep that higher sustained rate of fire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 08, 2022, 08:58:59 AM
Well, when you're desperate for a morale boost, why not go all the way...?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/alaska-is-ours-billboards-appear-in-russia-after-threat-to-reclaim-state/ar-AAZl7Bp?ocid=msedgntphdr&cvid=d2f4e96e29604a9790331022779fbf2d

Quote"Let America always remember: there's a piece of territory, Alaska," Volodin said during a State Duma session, according to The Moscow Times. "When they try to manage our resources abroad, let them think before they act that we, too, have something to take back."

Pyotr Tolstoy, deputy speaker of the State Duma, also reportedly proposed that "referendum" be held for Alaskan residents to vote on joining Russia.

While Alaskan support for joining Russia is far from widespread, WhiteHouse.Gov petitions titled "Alaska Back to Russia" gained tens of thousands of signatures in 2014 and 2015.

When asked for comment, a spokesperson for Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy pointed Newsweek to a tweet made in response to the Russia threat to "take back" the state on Thursday.

"To the Russian politicians who believe they can take back Alaska: Good luck," the Republican governor tweeted.

The billboards appeared one day after this statement, put up as an advertisement by a trailer manufacturer named "Alaska" in Krasnoyarsk.

So on one hand: everything in Russia's despotism is so propagandized that it's easy to believe this was prepared beforehand in orchestration with the regime.

On the other hand: everything in Russia's government is so sloppy and inefficient that it's easy to believe some enterprising business got this done overnight without any governmental involvement.


So, if Russia starts a modern Thousand Mile War, will they get as far as Attu before declaring victory?  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 08, 2022, 09:20:48 AM
they wont get past kamkatchka
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 08, 2022, 10:08:41 AM
 :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 08, 2022, 10:10:17 AM
Uh Oh! Better get the Caribou armed and on Alert Status.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 08, 2022, 11:03:34 AM
Quote from: matt3916 on July 07, 2022, 08:42:43 PM
That would be "Spearhead" by Adam Makos.   :)

LOL, that's a serious brain cramp!  I just finished that book last week, and it's still sitting on my car seat because I keep forgetting to return it to the library.  I appreciate the catch and have updated my post accordingly.    ;D

The greatest weapon of tyrants is fear.  That's what allows people like Putin to tap into our natural instincts for loyalty, respect for authority, and protecting our own.  That's also what allows for the repression of dissenters, the ignoring of laws, and eventually the subversion of courts.

In the absence of that fear, people might actually be focusing on his job performance.  Putin's needed to pick a fight with the West to keep his base mobilized.  The fight he's picked in Ukraine has proven to be a bit more costly to his people and his country than he'd anticipated, but it's done a remarkably good job of shoring up his base and solidifying his own position.

The Russians will continue with their redneck saber-rattling indefinitely.  If they think it's hard to keep troops in eastern Ukraine adequately supplied with a rich, industrial rail network, I wish them luck in getting boots on the ground in Alaska.  They hardly even have roads there!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on July 08, 2022, 11:28:12 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 08, 2022, 11:03:34 AM
I wish them luck in getting boots on the ground in Alaska.  They hardly even have roads there!

If that's true the Russians should feel at home.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 08, 2022, 04:45:33 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 08, 2022, 09:20:48 AM
they wont get past kamkatchka

  Wait.  Anyway, the Russians (or at least Putin) claim they haven't been trying to do anything yet.  Wait til you see them do something!  Then you will see them do something!


Ukrainian official responds to Putin saying offensive is not "anything in earnest" yet
From CNN's Tim Lister and Olga Voitovych

A senior Ukrainian official has responded to Russian President Vladimir Putin's assertion that the offensive in Ukraine was only just beginning.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's office, said on Twitter: "37,000 dead Russian soldiers. Total sanitary losses [injured] of 98-117 thousand people. 10 generals were eliminated. 1605 tanks, 405 planes/helicopters were turned into scrap."

"Has Russia not started fighting yet? Is [the] Kremlin considering war only by Stalin's mathematics - 20 million losses?"

CNN is unable to verify Ukrainian claims of Russian losses.

Podolyak was responding to remarks by Putin to parliamentary leaders in Moscow on Thursday.

"Everybody should know that largely speaking, we haven't even yet started anything in earnest" in Ukraine, Putin said.

He said the conflict might drag on until the "last Ukrainian is left standing."

"Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can I say? Let them try," Putin said during a meeting which aired on state media television Russia-24.

"We have continuously heard that the West is ready to fight with us until the last Ukrainian is left standing. This is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. However, it seems like everything is going towards this," he said.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on July 08, 2022, 05:14:29 PM
Back in 1977 I lived on the same dorm floor with a vet from the 82nd Airborne.  He said after spending 6 weeks in Alaska on exercise that the best thing the Russians could do for us was to invade Alaska.  He said they didn't run into anyone in the country who wasn't armed and knew how to use that weapon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 08, 2022, 05:42:48 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on July 08, 2022, 04:45:33 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 08, 2022, 09:20:48 AM
they wont get past kamkatchka

  Wait.  Anyway, the Russians (or at least Putin) claim they haven't been trying to do anything yet.  Wait til you see them do something!  Then you will see them do something!

"Everybody should know that largely speaking, we haven't even yet started anything in earnest" in Ukraine, Putin said.

He said the conflict might drag on until the "last Ukrainian is left standing."

"Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can I say? Let them try," Putin said during a meeting which aired on state media television Russia-24.

"We have continuously heard that the West is ready to fight with us until the last Ukrainian is left standing. This is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. However, it seems like everything is going towards this," he said.

  What's so odd about whatever it is Putin thinks he is saying is how scrambled it is.  Okay so.  Theoretically, he would like some kind of victory (or would he?  Does just blasting Ukraine forever satisfy whatever it is that he wants?  Maybe. If so it doesn't give Ukraine or the West much choice except to defeat him as quickly and thoroughly as possible).  Okay, so saying the point of the war is
to kill all the Ukrainians -- does this give Ukraine and the West any choice except to defeat him as quickly and thoroughly as possible?  It seems not.  If he was worried (as he seems to sort of mention)
about "tragedy for the Ukrainian people"...well he could just stop and leave.  As for defeating the Russians on the battlefield -- it seems like the Ukrainians are indeed trying so what's the point of saying
they can try?  Moreover...this business of not having seriously attacked yet seems very odd.  Shouldn't he be relishing the victory (small but not negligible) from which his forces are now resting?
So he definitely reached a point where he can declare victory, but even Putin doesn't seem to be noticing that.  Instead, that victory is written off as not even a real start.  So now (with lots of new weapons) the Ukrainians can try not to be exterminated.  This does not seem like a coherent set of utterances even for Putin.  Less than pointless, in fact.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 08, 2022, 08:01:39 PM
I'm not sure when Putin stopped bringing his A game, but it was apparently sometime before his invasion of Ukraine. 

Statements like this are bravado and stagecraft, which sometimes plays well with the Home crowd.  But in the old days, those statements of bravado and stagecraft still made some vague sort of sense.  Most of the communications from the Kremlin and from Putin seem incoherent. 

I can only pray that their nuclear controls are in better shape than their statecraft.  That strikes me as a dubious assumption, though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 08, 2022, 08:42:44 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 08, 2022, 08:01:39 PM
I'm not sure when Putin stopped bringing his A game, but it was apparently sometime before his invasion of Ukraine. 

Statements like this are bravado and stagecraft, which sometimes plays well with the Home crowd.  But in the old days, those statements of bravado and stagecraft still made some vague sort of sense.  Most of the communications from the Kremlin and from Putin seem incoherent. 

I can only pray that their nuclear controls are in better shape than their statecraft.  That strikes me as a dubious assumption, though.

   I guess -- with some applied reading-between-the-lines, you can decode this verbal posturing of Putin's as having the revealing implication that he only wants to exterminate the Ukrainians.  The
implied threat is that now he will apply himself to exterminating them and he hasn't really started that yet and its going to take a few million years -- so LOOK OUT -- he's not stopping no matter how long it takes to kill all the Ukrainians.  I suppose that's a minimal aim compared to killing everyone on the planet, so maybe it makes a kind of remote logical sense if nothing else.  I mean if you have a few million years to waste -- why not get started now and be serious for once, right?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 08, 2022, 10:29:58 PM
Henry Kissinger was on FOX News tonight and he said both sides are reinforcing their positions right now but he expects the heavy fighting to resume soon, perhaps in August. He compared the situation to the WWI stalemate on the Western Front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 09, 2022, 12:16:39 AM
Im still surprised that that fucker is still alive.
I also think that in a WW1 environment that the the Ukraine wins based on actual mobilization and long term national will.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 09, 2022, 07:40:28 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 08, 2022, 10:29:58 PM
Henry Kissinger was on FOX News tonight and he said both sides are reinforcing their positions right now but he expects the heavy fighting to resume soon, perhaps in August. He compared the situation to the WWI stalemate on the Western Front.

  There are a lot of differences.  Troop density is a lot less for example.  The Russians are already using SAMs to attack ground targets so they are running out of precision munitions just as the Ukrainians
start building up their long-range precision weapons and air defenses.  Also of course in WWI, the alliances had negotiable aims, unlike what Russia seems to be claiming its aim is -- the extermination of all Ukrainians.  You could say, "Wait, but wasn't one of the Ottoman Empire's aims the extermination of the Armenians?"  Sure well, but that's only one of the Central Powers.  The fact that four out of six Empires involved in WWI collapsed should be a warning to Russia's imperial ambitions in its campaign of extermination.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 10, 2022, 06:16:04 PM
remember during summer:  dont leave your tanks outside, they might melt.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXSQ3WuXoAI7vjD?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 10, 2022, 06:27:17 PM
UK MOD is reporting that:
https://mobile.twitter.com/defencehq
QuoteRussia is moving reserve forces from across the country and assembling them near Ukraine for future offensive operations.
A large proportion of the new infantry units are probably deploying with MT-LB armoured vehicles taken from long-term storage as their primary transport...

Despite President Putin's claim on 07 July 2022 that the Russian military has 'not even started' its efforts in Ukraine, many of its reinforcements are ad hoc groupings, deploying with obsolete or inappropriate equipment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 10, 2022, 06:40:41 PM
If the Russians keep it up they can see 100s of thousands of their troops dead. Is that their aim?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 10, 2022, 07:18:26 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 09, 2022, 12:16:39 AM
Im still surprised that that fucker is still alive.
Whoa!  I'm guessing you're not a Kissinger fan.  Well, he did have the cognisance to warn that the westernization of Ukraine was a redline for Russia.  Myself, I was wondering when he'd comment.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 09, 2022, 12:16:39 AM
I also think that in a WW1 environment that the the Ukraine wins based on actual mobilization and long term national will.
The West is holding back in providing weapons to Ukraine.  https://www.dailypioneer.com/2022/columnists/us-helps-ukraine-but-ensures-war-doesn---t-go-nuclear.html
QuoteHow would we know if the United States is deliberately starving Ukraine of weapons in order to force it into a compromise peace settlement that leaves some Ukrainian territory—maybe even a lot—in Russian hands?

You can imagine the White House having such a strategy, though it would never admit it. After all, if Ukraine managed to drive the Russian army out of the whole country, Moscow might panic and escalate to nuclear weapons. President Joe Biden's prime duty is to keep the United States safe, not to put the Ukrainian border back where it used to be...
There is reason to suspect, therefore, that the very slow drip-feed of American weapons to Ukraine is deliberate, and is intended to keep the Ukrainian government from winning too soon or too big. Better that both sides exhaust themselves and arrive at some sort of compromise peace deal.

Of course, the Ukrainians might actually lose as a result of this policy, in which case Biden would have to choose whether to save them by direct military intervention or not. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.

Hypothetically, if Ukraine is given the weapons, they could humiliate Russia.  The US and UK are training officers and soldiers respectively. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62001336 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62102451
I think we can be certain that if the Ukrainians can retake Crimea, especially Sevastopol, the Russians will use nuclear weapons.  Sevastopol is obviously of the utmost importance to the Russians. If they can retake Donbas, it will be highly likely that the Russians will use nuclear weapons.

Right now Russia has an upper hand in the attritional warfare and the Ukrainians are being ground down.  https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/ukraine-war-paving-road-survival-victory
QuoteRussian electronic warfare (EW) is denying Ukraine a sufficiently fast kill chain to destroy Russia's artillery.
Russian artillery is fixing the Ukrainian military and preventing the Ukrainians from concentrating to undertake offensive manoeuvre.
Russian cruise missiles are imposing a high economic and political cost on Ukraine.
A shortage of skilled infantry and armoured operators is limiting Ukraine's offensive combat power.
Limited staff capacity is limiting Ukraine's ability to plan and execute combined operations at scale.
The BBC articles above discuss training Ua military is receiving abroad and the Rusi article goes on to discuss what Ukraine further needs to be supplied with.
The West has the choice of adequately supplying Ukraine and provoking Russia or possibly seeing Ukraine fail and shortly after a real threat being posed to the Baltic states and no one needs to be reminded that they are protected by Article 5.
Putin will clearly try to take Donetsk Oblast and then if possible Odessa, and Ukraine's southern coast linking up with Transnistria.
Does anyone have news about the buildup in Belgorod and Belorus with the intentions of getting to artillery range of Kyiv?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 10, 2022, 08:24:17 PM
QuoteDoes anyone have news about the buildup in Belgorod and Belorus with the intentions of getting to artillery range of Kyiv?

Ive been reading about lots and lots of ammo dumps and storage facilities getting smacked by Himars strikes.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 10, 2022, 09:07:51 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 10, 2022, 08:24:17 PM
QuoteDoes anyone have news about the buildup in Belgorod and Belorus with the intentions of getting to artillery range of Kyiv?

Ive been reading about lots and lots of ammo dumps and storage facilities getting smacked by Himars strikes.  <:-)
<:-) <:-) <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 10, 2022, 09:50:23 PM
QuoteI'm guessing you're not a Kissinger fan.

I think in a time and place he was 100% the right guy in the right place.  I think hes a bit out of touch and way past his prime now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 10, 2022, 10:31:11 PM
He did counter-intelligence for the US Army in WWII.  There's a funny and scary story of him crossing back to friendly lines but I can't find it.
Lately, we don't hear too much from him but he's nearly 100. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 10, 2022, 10:56:05 PM
talk about a life lived.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 11, 2022, 08:09:24 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 10, 2022, 06:16:04 PM
remember during summer:  dont leave your tanks outside, they might melt.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXSQ3WuXoAI7vjD?format=jpg&name=large)

Russian tankers have started pre-burying themselves to save time!  >:D

That's a pretty good revetment really -- as long as their rear security infantry are on point.

One tractor sneaking up behind them could ruin their whole day!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 11, 2022, 08:12:43 AM
QuoteRussia is moving reserve forces from across the country and assembling them near Ukraine for future offensive operations.
A large proportion of the new infantry units are probably deploying with MT-LB armoured vehicles taken from long-term storage as their primary transport...

Despite President Putin's claim on 07 July 2022 that the Russian military has 'not even started' its efforts in Ukraine, many of its reinforcements are ad hoc groupings, deploying with obsolete or inappropriate equipment.

Gosh, what reserves?!

But I see that true mobilization hasn't started yet. That's great news for Team Uk, and for the world in general.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on July 11, 2022, 08:18:23 AM
Re: entrenched tank

Great job with the camo, but would think that things would look odd if viewed from above - like a nice, green splotch in an area of exposed earth.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 11, 2022, 08:19:34 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 08, 2022, 09:20:48 AM
they wont get past to kamkatchka

At this point, more accurate!  >:D


Quote from: Pete Dero on July 08, 2022, 11:28:12 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 08, 2022, 11:03:34 AM
I wish them luck in getting boots on the ground in Alaska.  They hardly even have roads there!

If that's true the Russians should feel at home.

"Where we're going, we don't need... roads."  8)

Heck, until they reach the mainland, there are no useful roads at all! No long bridges bridging the islands.

Quote from: Sir Slash on July 08, 2022, 10:10:17 AM
Uh Oh! Better get the Caribou armed and on Alert Status.  :hide:

On Attu etc., Gus Team Seal has never been more needed!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: undercovergeek on July 11, 2022, 08:20:12 AM
I don't think there is any 'from above' as far as Ukraine is concerned is there?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 11, 2022, 08:22:28 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on July 11, 2022, 08:18:23 AM
Re: entrenched tank

Great job with the camo, but would think that things would look odd if viewed from above - like a nice, green splotch in an area of exposed earth.

I was just thinking, what does that even look like in today's drone-ish environment?  ??? Like a big splotch of camo, right?


Quote from: undercovergeek on July 11, 2022, 08:20:12 AM
I don't think there is any 'from above' as far as Ukraine is concerned is there?

Man, they have so much dronage, it has become a living meme!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2022, 06:32:19 PM
all they did was dig their own grave.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on July 11, 2022, 06:50:59 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2022, 06:32:19 PM
all they did was dig their own grave.

Yup.  And I'd guess there's more than one "weird green spot," in a cleared area not far from them.  Ooopsies!

-boom
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 12, 2022, 07:35:55 AM
Again, if you're desperate for a morale boost, why not go all the way..

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-party-proposes-replacing-putin-s-title-of-president-with-an-old-russian-word-for-ruler/ar-AAZtFZO?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=4883f847d08b4ff4ba437fcf24edee19

...and be called the Russian equivalent of Fuehrer?

But that isn't my favorite part. My favorite part is more subtle: the complaint that "president" is a relatively new global term introduced by the US.

It isn't the term that's important, of course, it's the proper function in the government. This is basically an admission that Russia's government isn't a constitutional republic of elected officials meant to counterbalance each other in checks and balances to protect the people from governmental abuse. Or, put more shortly: duh.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 12, 2022, 09:02:05 AM
They should just get it over with and go for tsar - we all know they want to.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 12, 2022, 10:47:52 AM
Isn't that splotch of camo backed up against some trees and other growth?  I don't even wear any camo-themed shirts (unless you count a slightly off-color Boba Fett that my kids got me), but it seems to me like it might look normal.  I have no idea what sort of camera resolution recon drones use, nor how far up in the sky they have to stay to avoid being shot down.

I do hear that Russia is now buying some drones from Iran, so we know that they're moving upscale in their procurement capabilities.  But it doesn't take a lot of fancy technology to aim 2,000 dumb artillery tubes at a big city and blast it to rubble.   :-[
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 12, 2022, 10:57:44 AM
on a battlefield without thermal optics or night vision it would be a real good attempt and concealment.
it todays battlefield its a predug grave.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 12, 2022, 05:45:05 PM
what your ammo dump looks like after a Himars strike.  :bd:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdTNogWAAE0Omu?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 12, 2022, 05:55:50 PM
not the same depot but gladly another one

https://twitter.com/i/status/1546981613476749314
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 13, 2022, 07:38:34 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 12, 2022, 05:45:05 PM
what your ammo dump looks like after a Himars strike.  :bd:

That's approaching 'acceptable' even by Godzilla's standards!  O0


Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 12, 2022, 10:47:52 AM
Isn't that splotch of camo backed up against some trees and other growth?

No, otherwise the tank wouldn't be able to back out of its revetment quickly. So there's a good 20 feet or more of muddy dirt behind it. They should have spread the camo back there and also plopped some (easily backed-over) scrub and branches.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 13, 2022, 08:24:34 AM
you missed the blue sign pointing right at the tank
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on July 13, 2022, 08:46:26 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 13, 2022, 08:24:34 AM
you missed the blue sign pointing right at the tank

The sign says 'Moct' and that translates to bridge.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 13, 2022, 09:19:16 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on July 13, 2022, 08:46:26 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 13, 2022, 08:24:34 AM
you missed the blue sign pointing right at the tank

The sign says 'Moct' and that translates to bridge.

Maybe it's functioning as a turret emplacement to guard a bridge crossing? -- but then why bring th...??

Wait, stop, a lot of this invasion stops at "but why".  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 13, 2022, 09:48:22 AM
The Great But Why War of '22
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 13, 2022, 10:05:31 PM
Or, "What Vlad did on his Spring Break". "Followed by Summer Vacation". "Followed by.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on July 17, 2022, 03:17:55 AM
Newsflash : white paper is bad for your health !

Russia's Trade Ministry has decided that white copy paper is now dangerous for Russians' health and must be avoided at all costs.

"We have learned that this kind of gleaming, white office paper is harmful to human health," Deputy Trade Minister Oleg Bocharov said.
"It turns out that paper with a rougher texture is better for your eyes."


(Sanctions imposed on Russia since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the war in Ukraine this February has left paper manufacturers without whitening chemicals for paper)



Newsflash : unfinished cars are better for you !


The automotive industry is feeling the crush of sanctions as well. Popular Russian car company Avtovaz had to stop production of some cars earlier this year because it could not adequately supply the production with certain parts given foreign sanctions, NBC News reported. But this time, the Russians barely tried to justify the problem.
Instead of producing cars with the right parts, they decided to just pump out cars without key safety mechanisms. The company decided to restart production and is now producing cars without safety features like air bags, anti-lock braking systems, and emergency retraction locks on seat belts.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-hilariously-bad-excuses-for-why-everything-sucks-after-vladimir-putin-waged-war-on-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 17, 2022, 10:47:10 AM
'In Soviet Russia, you kill car accidents, not the other way around.'

:/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2022, 12:29:47 PM
QuotePopular Russian car company

I assure you no such thing exists.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on July 17, 2022, 01:28:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2022, 12:29:47 PM
QuotePopular Russian car company

I assure you no such thing exists.

This is the company that made the Lada.  This car was the popular choice for many Russians.  For most it was the only choice, but still  ;).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2022, 02:09:32 PM
any car you could buy for a pair of levis is not a car you want.

oh, and fuck russia.  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 17, 2022, 03:03:01 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on July 17, 2022, 03:17:55 AM
Popular Russian car company Avtovaz had to stop production of some cars earlier this year because it could not adequately supply the production with certain parts given foreign sanctions, NBC News reported. But this time, the Russians barely tried to justify the problem.

All things considered, I'll be genuinely surprised if the government doesn't start promoting unfinished cars as being patriotic support of the Motherland akin to tank factories during the Great Patriotic War.


That gleaming white paper excuse, meanwhile, deserves to become a meme.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on July 17, 2022, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 17, 2022, 03:03:01 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on July 17, 2022, 03:17:55 AM
Popular Russian car company Avtovaz had to stop production of some cars earlier this year because it could not adequately supply the production with certain parts given foreign sanctions, NBC News reported. But this time, the Russians barely tried to justify the problem.

All things considered, I'll be genuinely surprised if the government doesn't start promoting unfinished cars as being patriotic support of the Motherland akin to tank factories during the Great Patriotic War.


That gleaming white paper excuse, meanwhile, deserves to become a meme.
There will be one about using old wastepaper as toilet paper soon.  And they'll ask you to recycle that since the new paper isn't white anymore anyway!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 17, 2022, 03:59:05 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2022, 02:09:32 PM
any car you could buy for a pair of levis is not a car you want.

As I heard someone joking from the cold war days recently (on one of Bill Whittle's shows), "How bad was communism? It made the Germans build bad cars!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 17, 2022, 07:12:32 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on July 17, 2022, 03:17:55 AM
Newsflash : white paper is bad for your health !

Russia's Trade Ministry has decided that white copy paper is now dangerous for Russians' health and must be avoided at all costs.

"We have learned that this kind of gleaming, white office paper is harmful to human health," Deputy Trade Minister Oleg Bocharov said.
"It turns out that paper with a rougher texture is better for your eyes."


(Sanctions imposed on Russia since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the war in Ukraine this February has left paper manufacturers without whitening chemicals for paper)



Newsflash : unfinished cars are better for you !


The automotive industry is feeling the crush of sanctions as well. Popular Russian car company Avtovaz had to stop production of some cars earlier this year because it could not adequately supply the production with certain parts given foreign sanctions, NBC News reported. But this time, the Russians barely tried to justify the problem.
Instead of producing cars with the right parts, they decided to just pump out cars without key safety mechanisms. The company decided to restart production and is now producing cars without safety features like air bags, anti-lock braking systems, and emergency retraction locks on seat belts.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-hilariously-bad-excuses-for-why-everything-sucks-after-vladimir-putin-waged-war-on-ukraine

   Newsflash: the really healthy thing might be not starting big wars for no reason.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 18, 2022, 09:35:10 AM
All this time I was worrying about asteroids hitting the Earth and it's my printer that's killing me.  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 18, 2022, 09:50:48 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 18, 2022, 09:35:10 AM
All this time I was worrying about asteroids hitting the Earth and it's my printer that's killing me.  :o

  Friendly aliens might send you a 12-ton package of printer paper falling out of the sky at thousands of miles an hour, right?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 18, 2022, 12:13:19 PM
 :hide: :hide: :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 18, 2022, 12:34:28 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on July 17, 2022, 01:28:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2022, 12:29:47 PM
QuotePopular Russian car company

I assure you no such thing exists.

This is the company that made the Lada.  This car was the popular choice for many Russians.  For most it was the only choice, but still  ;).

They sold in Canada for a few years in the 80s. The price was super cheap, but the vehicles started rusting out almost as soon as they were driven off the lot.
They were super shitty, maybe lasting 3-4 years tops.... but the car heaters were apparently were infernos
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 18, 2022, 02:04:11 PM
Better or worse than the Yugo?

(https://img.hmn.com/fit-in/450x253/filters:upscale()/stories/2020/10/30091733/CC195-UND-01.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2022, 02:40:24 PM
RU forces are moving the train offload points out of HIMARS range, this image gives an indication of how this affects delivery times.
The conclusion is the transport times have doubled, so they need twice the amount of trucks to be able to keep up the rate of delivery.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FX4IGijWAAEUYHt?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on July 18, 2022, 02:53:21 PM
Russia Accidentally Shoots Down Their Own $36M Su-34 Bomber, Ukraine Claims

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoots-su-34-bomber-luhansk-ukraine-claims-1725524
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 18, 2022, 03:03:50 PM
^Star's gonna love that
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2022, 04:32:42 PM
yes I do.
fyi, it seems no one bothered to fact check the photos.  whats captioned as 2 Su-34s are actually Su-57s.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on July 18, 2022, 04:38:30 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2022, 04:32:42 PM
fyi, it seems no one bothered to fact check the photos.  whats captioned as 2 Su-34s are actually Su-57s.

I noticed that too  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 18, 2022, 05:14:02 PM
Interesting but not unbelievable that 8 HIMARS launchers could cause THAT much confusion and delay.  Does Russia still use a different gauge of railroad than Western Europe, or did they abandon that habit sometime in the last 75 years?  Or did they lay the Ukrainian railroads to use that same different gauge as the old USSR used once upon a time? 

Just thinking of what kind of rolling stocks of train cars the Russians might have on hand...

It will be interesting to see what happens to the logistical end of this war as time goes on.  It'd be nice if we could let American taxpayers retake some of that land that was paid for with Ukrainian and Russian blood.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2022, 05:43:17 PM
yes russia still has its own gauge of track because russia.....  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2022, 11:46:27 PM
its on the optimistic side but interesting none the less.

https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on July 19, 2022, 03:08:29 AM
Quote from: Windigo on July 18, 2022, 12:34:28 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on July 17, 2022, 01:28:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2022, 12:29:47 PM
QuotePopular Russian car company

I assure you no such thing exists.

This is the company that made the Lada.  This car was the popular choice for many Russians.  For most it was the only choice, but still  ;).


They sold in Canada for a few years in the 80s. The price was super cheap, but the vehicles started rusting out almost as soon as they were driven off the lot.
They were super shitty, maybe lasting 3-4 years tops.... but the car heaters were apparently were infernos


You can't make this up  :hide: !

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1548992984946974720

Last night Russian state TV ran a report on the unexpected 'benefits' of having your son killed in Ukraine.

You can buy a Lada with the compensation given to you by the state!


Video in the link.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 19, 2022, 05:47:36 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2022, 11:46:27 PM
its on the optimistic side but interesting none the less.

https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e

  Doesn't sound many messages of hope for the Russians in the Ukraine.  I thought the summer offensive of 1917 was undertaken by the Provisional Government.  Victor Sklovsky was there of course and
got one of his more serious injuries while (as usual) trying to get an armored car working.  I think he was technically still too young to drink even in the Army of the Provisional Government.

  Of course (as usual) the problem is how to get Russia out of this.  Last I heard, the UN was helping Russia, Ukraine and Turkey set up safe shipping routes for Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea and through the straits.  So maybe Russia can be worked into some kind of UN-supervised sets of ceasefires and whatnot.  Probably a phased withdrawal with a phased removal of sanctions or something.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 19, 2022, 06:39:17 AM
Do you have any links on what the UN is doing?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 19, 2022, 07:40:14 AM
WW1 comparisons are so last week. It's Mosin-Nagants now, baby!  :D

https://wesodonnell.medium.com/fact-check-are-russian-conscripts-in-ukraine-using-rifles-from-wwi-3c29feb350d2

....of course, still used in WW1, but made long before it.

The more interesting question (as in the article), is why not more AKs? Even AK-47s are still both widely available and useful. Is ammo shortage a problem? That would sound insane (considering the universality of 7.62mm for the AK rifles, and how far away the vast majority of Russian ammo storage must be from HIMARS strikes), but if ammo isn't properly stored it will degrade to unusable and even dangerous levels.

Then there are other factors for getting ammo to the front, that we know of, like a lack of trucks or even the logistic skill in arranging truck deliveries smoothly.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 19, 2022, 08:16:04 AM
Quote from: Gusington on July 19, 2022, 06:39:17 AM
Do you have any links on what the UN is doing?

  Recently there is this, but it has been coming up since June (and there have been earlier meetings):

https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-says-ukraine-russia-un-meeting-this-week-grain-corridor-probable-2022-07-18/

  And its sort of an evolving regional BLOC:

  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/19/putin-russia-erdogan-grain-ukraine-war-syria-tehran

Of course, this has some resonance with ancient history since Thucydides was demoted for messing up the politics of the grain trade to Athens through the straits.

And of course Snake Island is the sacred island where Helen of Troy settled down with Achilles (there are a lot of weird ancient versions of the Trojan War --
sort of the Byzantine Hallmark Channel version or
something I guess in the case of Helen and Achilles getting together on Snake Island).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 19, 2022, 08:23:03 AM
Quoteand how far away the vast majority of Russian ammo storage must be from HIMARS strikes), but if ammo isn't properly stored it will degrade to unusable and even dangerous levels.

this is where your thinking is flawed.  the ammo dumps are not far away because the russians lack the capacity to move quickly over long distances.  so they are in fact somewhat closer and within mlrs range.
also the russian method for storage truly sucks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 19, 2022, 08:55:47 AM
Ammo dumps, yes, I know, I saw the map.  :bd:

But ammo STORAGE isn't the same thing, the main storage facilities aren't built near the front line within strike range. (Unless you're Stalin leading up to and into WW2, since in that case you want even the main storage facilities built within 50 miles of the border -- and artillery ammo just dumped out on the ground at the front line in the last few weeks before kickoff, for 'reasons'. ;) )

However, it's safe to assume that the main storage facilities aren't upkept much better than average for Russia nowadays. (Maybe somewhat better or there'd be more explosions.) So even before they get on the road to the combat dumps, crazy-large portions of the ammo may be ruined.

And then of course all the other crappy factors in getting the ammo out of storage, onto (properly scheduled and routed and functioning) transportation, actually transported to the dumps, stored at the dumps (now under better arty fire), etc.

Come to think of it, I feel like it's a safe bet that the Russian rolling rail stock is falling apart, too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 19, 2022, 10:06:04 AM
I would suscribe right now to the Byzantine Hallmark Channel.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 19, 2022, 12:37:24 PM
how russians store ammo.  for russians there seems to be no distinction between storage and dump.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXrJchTUUAAZDoq?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 19, 2022, 12:38:51 PM
before
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FX1D6t7UsAEO-mV?format=jpg&name=large)

after
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FX1EHeBUcAYvQ0H?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 19, 2022, 01:44:23 PM
I think the Russian distinction between "storage" and "dump" is whether or not things are stacked in neat rows.

All of this info about the Russians' impending collapse is anecdotal.  It's compelling to hear and lines up with the way our brain processes information, but I don't see much data to really back up those assertions.  It doesn't mean they're wrong.  It just means that they're closer to conjecture, as was admitted in the original post providing that assessment upthread.

I'm hopeful.  I'm just not convinced.

The Allies were able to break out of Normandy because they won the logistical contest to build up forces faster.  They did this not only by a ridiculous loading/unloading effort to swell their own beachhead, but also by blowing up every railroad imaginable west of the German border in the year before D-Day.

That said, the Allies were near their breaking point before they secured the harbor facilities in Antwerp.  By moving the drop-off point for their supplies 350 miles East, the Allies solved A TON of logistical problems.  The tonnage that they could put ashore daily in Antwerp quickly dwarfed what they had been able to do at any other port.  Unlike the harbors in Northern and Western France, the Antwerp harbor had not been demolished prior to occupation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 20, 2022, 07:38:57 AM
Some more confirmation about early deserters trying to get out of their contracts due to bad weapons and supplies. 300 troops sounds like a company?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-suffer-frostbite-forced-to-cut-off-blackened-meat-report/ar-AAZKnxp?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=f3fd1a9b0cae465489c6eb969a2eb08d

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 20, 2022, 07:43:13 AM
On the other hands (...plural not originally intended but kept for the relevant humor...!)

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-soldiers-monsters-secret-experiments-biolabs-us-1725908

To quote one of the final quips from Cyrano de Bergerac, "I believe I may call that flattery!"  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 20, 2022, 10:04:12 AM
My good friend Yoda says, "Begun the Monkey Pox Wars have".  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 20, 2022, 10:10:26 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 20, 2022, 07:43:13 AM
On the other hands (...plural not originally intended but kept for the relevant humor...!)

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-soldiers-monsters-secret-experiments-biolabs-us-1725908

To quote one of the final quips from Cyrano de Bergerac, "I believe I may call that flattery!"  >:D

Damn, that is the most opulent and copious amount of unsupported speculation I have seen in a very very long time. Did News Week start hiring National Enquirer writers?

How is that even worthy of publishing?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 20, 2022, 10:33:59 AM
Quote from: Windigo on July 20, 2022, 10:10:26 AM

Damn, that is the most opulent and copious amount of unsupported speculation I have seen in a very very long time. Did News Week start hiring National Enquirer writers?

How is that even worthy of publishing?

I dunno, I'm kind of excited to see the moment that the Ukrainian army unleashes a horde of horribly mutated tentacled super soldiers to lay waste to the Russian Army.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 20, 2022, 11:30:14 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 20, 2022, 07:43:13 AM
On the other hands (...plural not originally intended but kept for the relevant humor...!)

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-soldiers-monsters-secret-experiments-biolabs-us-1725908

To quote one of the final quips from Cyrano de Bergerac, "I believe I may call that flattery!"  >:D

   The content of the "observations" themselves seem incoherent:

"for a number of diseases, including those atypical for Ukrainian territory, the content of the relevant substances is several times higher than the permissible norms."

  "Permissible norms"?  There's a "permissible norm" for disease organisms? or "relevant substances"?  I'm guessing this is supposed to translate somehow into some sort of
disquiet about something, but I think it exceeds the "permissible norm" for pure drivel long before it reaches any level of translatability.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 20, 2022, 12:11:26 PM
I think News Week just cut and pasted a Russian news article and ran it through Google translate.
Then an unpaid intern, who was missing a party, was told to 'make it legible'.
The copy editor , attending the same party, just gave it auto approval and went back to snorting lines off of Star's butt.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 20, 2022, 03:20:04 PM
Quote from: Windigo on July 20, 2022, 12:11:26 PM
I think News Week just cut and pasted a Russian news article and ran it through Google translate.
Then an unpaid intern, who was missing a party, was told to 'make it legible'.
The copy editor , attending the same party, just gave it auto approval and went back to snorting lines off of Star's butt.

  Something like that...but now, yes, the Russians say they really want more (but is this sort of a step back from exterminating all Ukrainians?):

Russia's objectives now extend beyond eastern Donbas region into Ukraine's south, minister says
From CNN's Radina Gigova and Vasco Cotovio

Russia's objectives in Ukraine now extend beyond the eastern Donbas region into the country's south, a senior government minister has said.

As the war in Ukraine approaches its fifth month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told state media that the "geography is different."

"It is far from being only DPR (Donetsk People's Republic) and LPR (Luhansk People's Republic) — it is also Kherson Region, Zaporizhzhia Region and a number of other territories. And this process continues, it continues steadily and persistently," Lavrov said during an interview with RIA Novosti, published Wednesday.

Lavrov's remarks signal the Kremlin's refocused approach to the war in Ukraine.

Just three months ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin shifted military efforts onto the country's east after failing to capture Kyiv.

Earlier this month, Russian forces followed through with Putin's order and captured Lysychansk, the last city in Luhansk region still in Ukrainian hands. Their next move was anticipated to be in the neighboring region of Donetsk.

If Donetsk were to fall, Moscow would overrun the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, which has harbored Russian-backed separatist factions since 2014.

However, recently supplied US weapons systems worth $400 million have bolstered the Ukrainian military's ability to strike down Russian targets — a significant factor that has caused fresh problems for Moscow.

Lavrov pointed out that as the West continues to supply Ukraine with more long-range weaponry, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), Russia's geographical objectives in Ukraine would move further away from the current line.

"We cannot allow any weapons in the part of Ukraine controlled by Zelensky — or whoever will replace him — that pose a direct threat to our territory or the territory of the republics that declared independence or those that wish to determine their future independently," Lavrov said.

"The President was very clear, as you quoted: denazification and demilitarization in the sense that there should be no threat to our security, no military threat from Ukraine's territory, and this objective remains," Lavrov added.

CNN's Rob Picheta, Tim Lister and Oren Liebermann contributed to this report.



  So what's especially goofy about this is that the Russians have yet another excuse/gripe/thing/justification for something they seem to be doing sort of with some kind of aims -- well now its -- we have to take over a lot of the Ukraine because these Western Weapons have the range to blow things up well into the area we have captured (but aren't weapons with range aways going to be able to do that no matter where you stop or go?).  It's like every week they have a different set of objectives and reasons for doing things.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 20, 2022, 05:34:49 PM
at this point I honestly dont know why we're penny packeting a lot of this kit to them.
give 60 himars and fuck russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 20, 2022, 07:03:56 PM
I wonder how much of it is stinginess on the US side, and how much of it is simply a restricted ability for the Ukrainians to digest new equipment.  That's not simply about getting the equipment into their hands, but getting their forces trained on it and getting logistics set up. 

I have to think that building the supply and maintenance chains for anything more complicated than a disposable rocket-launcher is the biggest barrier for the more logistically complicated systems (tanks, planes, helicopters, self-propelled artillery, and integrated C3I systems all come to mind here).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on July 20, 2022, 07:57:48 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 20, 2022, 05:34:49 PM
at this point I honestly dont know why we're penny packeting a lot of this kit to them.
give 60 himars and fuck russia.

Amen to all of that especially the fuck Russia part.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 20, 2022, 08:35:07 PM
Another quote from a Gwynne Dyer article I posted sometime ago.  https://www.dailypioneer.com/2022/columnists/us-helps-ukraine-but-ensures-war-doesn---t-go-nuclear.html
QuoteIt's striking that the United Kingdom announced that it is sending similar rocket launchers at the same time, but there was no nonsense about three weeks of training outside Ukraine. The Ukrainian Army has one of the best artillery schools in Europe, so the UK is just sending along instruction manuals.
It's not an issue of the Ukrainians not being able to use the weaponry being sent.  It is an issue of avoiding conflict between Russia and the West.   I think this is a moot point as Russia will eventually lose and blame the West and we will have an even worse continuation of Russia blaming its failures on again, the West.  Or less likely, Russia ekes out some kind of victory and turns its attention to the Baltics. 
We need Kissinger to come out of retirement and bring some sense and realpolitik to this intractable situation before it spirals out of control.  Russia will not give up Crimea, nor Donbas but Ukraine will probably be able to take them back.  The West cannot tolerate Russian use of nuclear weapons, the escalate to de-escalate doctrine. 

While I am being that guy, I will take a break from tormenting 4 to 99+ year olds and point out that modern camouflage netting can defeat thermal vision.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on July 21, 2022, 06:13:18 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on July 20, 2022, 08:35:07 PM

We need Kissinger to come out of retirement and bring some sense and realpolitik to this intractable situation before it spirals out of control. 

  I studied intro to undergrad history with a student of Kissinger's...needless to say, Kissinger's student didn't know what to think when I showed him telegrams from the British Imperial Ambassador to
Austria-Hungry in 1914 discussing with his own (ie British) Foreign Office how to use just a few slightly obsolescent battlecruisers to put pressure on everybody in the Mediterranean even after the Royal Navy pulled most of its fleet out of the Mediterranean.
PLUS, Kissinger's big book was A World Restored which described how Europe was "restored" by totally defeating Napoleon.  Sometimes realpolitik means total defeat for somebody yet the Kissinger approach to reality tends to overlook anything related to specific weapon systems and their deployment.
I would argue the only sensible realpolitik solution to Russia's current ambitions is some form of total defeat for Russia...pretty much a UN-supervised phased withdrawal and phased economic reintegration probably taking a few years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 21, 2022, 09:02:30 AM
I think the main point to the Newsweek article about the 'mutant killer' Ukrainian troops (which was picked up from the Daily Beast), was to illustrate how far the morale problems on the Russian side have dropped. Whereupon the article then gets into Russian claims about bio-weapons being developed in Ukraine, to fill out the article.

The original Daily Beast article is here: https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-says-its-losing-because-ukraine-has-experimental-mutant-troops-created-in-secret-biolabss?source=articles&via=rss

NewsNation has confirmed that Russian lawmakers have propagated the mutant ninja supersoldier theory: https://www.newsnationnow.com/world/russia-at-war/no-truth-to-russian-claim-of-ukrainian-mutant-soldiers/

There ARE American-based bioweapon labs in the Ukraine, as confirmed by retired U.S. Gen. William Enyart (in an interview with NewsNation back on Tuesday). "Enyart said the U.S. does run bio labs in Ukraine, but they are used for tracking down and handling old chemical weapons[.]"

(I recall seeing more discussion about this, including suspicious activity in these biolabs, but that was several months ago and I don't recall the details nor the sources. One way or another, the current version of this accusation is linked to gain-of-function research at Wuhan, of course.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 21, 2022, 10:36:36 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 21, 2022, 09:02:30 AM
I think the main point to the Newsweek article about the 'mutant killer' Ukrainian troops (which was picked up from the Daily Beast), was to illustrate how far the morale problems on the Russian side have dropped. Whereupon the article then gets into Russian claims about bio-weapons being developed in Ukraine, to fill out the article.

The original Daily Beast article is here: https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-says-its-losing-because-ukraine-has-experimental-mutant-troops-created-in-secret-biolabss?source=articles&via=rss

NewsNation has confirmed that Russian lawmakers have propagated the mutant ninja supersoldier theory: https://www.newsnationnow.com/world/russia-at-war/no-truth-to-russian-claim-of-ukrainian-mutant-soldiers/

There ARE American-based bioweapon labs in the Ukraine, as confirmed by retired U.S. Gen. William Enyart (in an interview with NewsNation back on Tuesday). "Enyart said the U.S. does run bio labs in Ukraine, but they are used for tracking down and handling old chemical weapons[.]"

(I recall seeing more discussion about this, including suspicious activity in these biolabs, but that was several months ago and I don't recall the details nor the sources. One way or another, the current version of this accusation is linked to gain-of-function research at Wuhan, of course.)

I think the story is amusing, but not really worth much else. On any given day you can find lawmakers from any country propagating crazy ideas. Heaven knows that here in the US, we have "lawmakers" of all political persuasions coming out with the craziest statements.

The next thing will be accusing the Ukrainians of being witches:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Qq8NQabchE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Qq8NQabchE)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2022, 10:46:19 AM
we have ppl in Congress that believe in Jewish space lasers.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 21, 2022, 10:48:08 AM
^The best space lasers are Jewish!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 21, 2022, 11:30:20 AM
Jewish Space Lasers and Cronenberg body horror style mutant super solders....

This war's starting to get really exciting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 21, 2022, 01:05:59 PM
It was just a matter of time and imagination.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 21, 2022, 01:48:35 PM
Oh!  And Witches.  Missed the witches. 

And Satanists. 

I bet Satanist Ukrainian Witches are really hot and do it on the first date.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 21, 2022, 01:58:52 PM
The Jewish Space Laser was only used once and that was to give Jupiter a circumcision. Be very glad it didn't miss and hit Uranus.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 21, 2022, 02:20:01 PM
I know that we are always on topic here at Grogheads and to divert from the conversation is virtually unheard of, but I like where this thread has gone.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 21, 2022, 02:35:49 PM
Jewish Space Lasers  are no more capable than Canada's Beaver Catapults - hypersonic delivery of forested ecosystem doom anywhere in the world.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 21, 2022, 03:04:44 PM
Wow.  I'm not sure what I expected to find when I clicked on this thread today, but it wasn't this.

I am particularly humbled by Sir Slash's...  creativity.

;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 21, 2022, 03:33:13 PM
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/690/759/d66.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 21, 2022, 10:44:45 PM
Hey, I thought the Jewish Space Lasers were still a secret until Star let the cat outta the bag.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 22, 2022, 07:40:05 AM
As Ben Shaprio said, with an amused sigh, "The first rule of the Jewish Space Lasers, is that you don't talk about the Jewish Space Lasers!"

Although, if Israel has satellites in orbit, and if they use lasers for rangefinding and/or mapping, then by deduction...!  8)

Also -- and admittedly I can't prove this is not my imagination instead of memory, because it would be awesome -- but I thought I heard or read somewhere pretty reliable in the past few months, that the US is helping Israel develop an update to the Iron Dome defense system which would use ground-based, um, space lasers for want of a better term.   :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2022, 09:41:05 AM
I think its more like the US is looking to buy updated Iron Dome systems.
kind of like the US Army buying lots on new Trophy kits for the M1A2 sep4 upgrade.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 22, 2022, 07:33:22 PM
Zelensky talking about why he is not negotiating with the Russians:

"...we are dealing with who we are dealing with. Until they get smashed in the face, they won't understand anything."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelenskyy-says-there-s-no-point-in-negotiating-with-russia-until-it-gets-smashed-in-the-face-and-all-ukrainian-territories-are-liberated/ar-AAZS8Ly?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d1dfd56824d34b11a6746acefb84538e (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelenskyy-says-there-s-no-point-in-negotiating-with-russia-until-it-gets-smashed-in-the-face-and-all-ukrainian-territories-are-liberated/ar-AAZS8Ly?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d1dfd56824d34b11a6746acefb84538e)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 22, 2022, 07:53:18 PM
One "benefit" of the US furnishing Ukraine with military hardware is that they're drawing down their stockpiles of some of the less cutting edge stuff.  This way, if the US military has to ever start shooting at an enemy, we can blow them up with $200,000 ATGMs when $40,000 ATGMs would have worked just as well, but without the economic stimulus effect!

I now return you guys to the discussion of the Jewish Space Lasers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2022, 08:01:00 PM
you do realize that our production lines are going to be and have been busy as hell providing skilled jobs right.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MOS:96B2P on July 23, 2022, 02:02:27 PM
Interesting article.  Below are a few lines from the article.   

During the counteroffensive in the Kherson region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces encircled three battalion tactical groups of the Russian Army, including a special forces (VDV) company and a tank company. Up to 2,000 Russian troops are in the operational encirclement near the village of Vysokopillya.

Russian troops are also facing encirclement near the village of Arkhanhelske, where the Ukrainian military successfully crossed the Ingulets River threatening Russian positions on the left bank.

https://uawire.org/more-than-1-000-russian-troops-encircled-by-ukrainian-forces-in-kherson-region#
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 24, 2022, 07:36:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2022, 08:01:00 PM
you do realize that our production lines are going to be and have been busy as hell providing skilled jobs right.

Yes.  My post was intended as both tongue-in-cheek and largely accurate at the same time.

I view our obligations to our military and our allies very seriously, but I view the hardware/procurement angle much more cynically than most here.  The upgrading and refreshing of ordinance is a very real benefit.  It's just also an expensive one. 

I get the sense that most of our military aid to Ukraine has come in the form of reinvestments we're having to make in our own inventories.  I think that's a much smarter use of U.S. tax payer dollars than if we were buying weapons from The Czech Republic or France and sending them to Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 24, 2022, 07:44:51 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 24, 2022, 07:36:24 PM
I get the sense that most of our military aid to Ukraine has come in the form of reinvestments we're having to make in our own inventories.  I think that's a much smarter use of U.S. tax payer dollars than if we were buying weapons from The Czech Republic or France and sending them to Ukraine.

yes.  we get the new stuff and Ukraine gets the old.
a great example are the cluster warhead mlrs that we're giving them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 25, 2022, 07:30:14 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2022, 08:01:00 PM
you do realize that our production lines are going to be and have been busy as hell providing skilled jobs right.

I read that at first as a reply to "I now return you guys to the discussion of the Jewish Space Lasers."  :D  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 25, 2022, 10:05:30 AM
Quote from: MOS:96B2P on July 23, 2022, 02:02:27 PM
Interesting article.  Below are a few lines from the article.   

During the counteroffensive in the Kherson region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces encircled three battalion tactical groups of the Russian Army, including a special forces (VDV) company and a tank company. Up to 2,000 Russian troops are in the operational encirclement near the village of Vysokopillya.

Russian troops are also facing encirclement near the village of Arkhanhelske, where the Ukrainian military successfully crossed the Ingulets River threatening Russian positions on the left bank.

https://uawire.org/more-than-1-000-russian-troops-encircled-by-ukrainian-forces-in-kherson-region#

With all the fresh prisoners coming in, I think there's a win for the US here. Incarcerate them in the US, the private sector prisons get a boost and the Ukraine doesn't have to look after them.
The POWs in US prisons will be happy as pigs in mud because ... hey the US!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on July 25, 2022, 10:49:20 AM
Don't know how accurate this is but there have been Twitters showing a large amount of the bear's armored vehicles on trains supposedly heading for UKR. 

Anyone here who is good at Twitter-fu that can confirm?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 25, 2022, 11:11:23 AM
Great idea Windy! The Russkies could stay in the U.S. while they wait for their mothers to come pick them up. While they're here, they could be exposed to the truth about what's going on in their country. Vlad would NEVER trust them to go back into combat after that. And if they did, they would surrender right away to get to come back again.  Win,win,win.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on July 26, 2022, 10:43:38 PM
First good researched paper on the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy for those stats and data nerds out there.
To sum up its looking brutal for Russia

https://yale.app.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 27, 2022, 01:50:27 AM
Quote from: Con on July 26, 2022, 10:43:38 PM
First good researched paper on the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy for those stats and data nerds out there.
To sum up its looking brutal for Russia

https://yale.app.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo

Bumped into this Foreign Policy article on the same topic, must be based on the same research you posted. A tad shorter read, with same conclusions.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 27, 2022, 01:43:22 PM
One surprising stat I got from that Foreign Policy article, is that the 5 million workers of global businesses in Russia represent 12% of Russia's workforce.

100x5/12 = 41.6667 - 5 = Russia has only ~36,670,000 workers in its native businesses. (The article itself doesn't make this point, but it's interesting for important context.) I can't tell from this stat how many of the workers in each category are from Russia itself or from other nations, but presumably the overwhelming majority are Russian either way.

No wonder their GDP was about like Florida's, back before the invasion!  :o

(And those 5 million global business workers, wherever they came from, represented about 40% of Russia's GDP, according to the article.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 12:54:06 AM
do you see what I see.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYsOuE-WQAESZ4C?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 28, 2022, 06:36:36 AM
American made howitzer shell?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 28, 2022, 07:19:53 AM
M5 rocket propelled...

Wait. Are howitzer shells rocket propelled nowadays? Feel like I should have known that already.  ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 07:53:21 AM
ya theyve been around forever but this is first proof Ive seen of them in Ukraine service.
stockpile came from Norwegian supplies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 28, 2022, 07:54:50 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 28, 2022, 07:19:53 AM
M5 rocket propelled...

Wait. Are howitzer shells rocket propelled nowadays? Feel like I should have known that already.  ???
Could be a RAP round seems those are provided to Ukraine too. A M549 for instance?

Edit as GDS_Starfury answered, a RAP round it is. A quick google results with hits for M795 and M549 RAP rounds since around May ...

Good catch I have not seen one either!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 08:10:05 AM
and a Polish side note:

https://defence24.com/defence-policy/poland-to-buy-1000-mbts-minister-blaszczak-also-outlines-a-plan-to-procure-extra-f-35s-or-f-15s-interview
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 28, 2022, 09:28:21 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 08:10:05 AM
and a Polish side note:

https://defence24.com/defence-policy/poland-to-buy-1000-mbts-minister-blaszczak-also-outlines-a-plan-to-procure-extra-f-35s-or-f-15s-interview

Putin has started an arms race he can't finish. But it is also slightly disturbing. Europe's past arms races have often not ended well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 28, 2022, 09:33:15 AM
Polish Air Force getting a big boost.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 28, 2022, 09:39:16 AM
OK Star. How much did you charge that guy for that big-ass rocket/shell? And why aren't WE part of your, 'pipeline'?  ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 09:46:00 AM
that shell weights 100 lbs more or less.  there are maybe 3 or 4 people in this thread that could lift it without throwing their old ass backs out.  :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 28, 2022, 09:47:23 AM
That is why God gave us, 'Young People' to do the heavy lifting for us.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 09:52:03 AM
its also why you arent in the pipeline.  ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 28, 2022, 10:37:01 AM
This is why you need to be careful when choosing your position when serving with Artillery. In late eighties, I served as a FDC NCO. Fire direction center, that is.

I say, I can still wield a ruler and a pencil like any young man! (What is a "ruler", or a "pencil", they ask)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 28, 2022, 11:24:05 AM
Thanks for the link to the Polish procurement article, Star.  That's a really detailed look at how some of the linkages play out.  It is interesting to see how the dominoes fall here:

1) Russia invades Ukraine.
2) Ukrainian allies move to furnish Russian arms to Ukraine, depleting their own inventories.
3) Urgency and demand for non-Russian weapons systems, ordinance, and spare parts escalates dramatically.
4) Western suppliers start to draw down their own inventories of more aging systems.
5) Ready-to-go weapons manufacturing lines make it to the front of the queue, given the urgency behind some of these needs.
6) Military suppliers outside Russia ramp up production quantities, driving down unit costs (in cases like US companies, does this save US taxpayers money or just generate extra revenue & profits for arms manufacturers?).

I wonder what lessons are emerging around the need for adequate ordinance stockpiles in other countries in Europe?  For US forces based in Europe?  Clearly, the weapons-systems switchover from Russian-made arms to Western-made arms has been a painful transition for the Ukrainians (especially in heavier and more sophisticated weaponry).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 28, 2022, 11:44:17 AM
I am pretty sure they'll take the pain... especially with the likes of HIMARS
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 11:45:45 AM
Quotein cases like US companies, does this save US taxpayers money or just generate extra revenue & profits for arms manufacturers?

it should.  the best example is the F-35 program.  Farnborough was extremely good the Lookheed Martin this year as everyone want in on or more of F-35s.  that directly reduces costs across the board. 
Im in several heated debates about the state of US industry with a few people who complain about the lack of government / defense projects.  well they can stfu now because theres going to be work for years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 28, 2022, 12:37:47 PM
Probably decades. I know I am beating a dead horse here but even with the war in an attritional phase...is that Russia's end game? Just to turn Ukraine into a giant trench against the 'encroachment' of the west? That's basically the only positive I can glean from this whole disaster.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 28, 2022, 01:14:09 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 11:45:45 AM
Quotein cases like US companies, does this save US taxpayers money or just generate extra revenue & profits for arms manufacturers?

it should.  the best example is the F-35 program.  Farnborough was extremely good the Lookheed Martin this year as everyone want in on or more of F-35s.  that directly reduces costs across the board. 
Im in several heated debates about the state of US industry with a few people who complain about the lack of government / defense projects.  well they can stfu now because theres going to be work for years.

At the risk of sounding pedantic, are you certain that those savings are built into the nature of the contracts that the DoD has signed with Lockheed?  I've long worried that US defense spending exists primarily as a conduit for crony capitalism, and the output of an adequate number of high-quality weapons for our troops is very much a secondary consideration...

Quote from: Windigo on July 28, 2022, 11:44:17 AM
I am pretty sure they'll take the pain... especially with the likes of HIMARS

The HIMARS have been remarkably successful in creating a ton of logistical headaches for the Russian military.  I'd argue that what sets them apart is not their exceptional quality as American-made weapons systems, but their range (and, to a lesser extent, their accuracy).  If the Ukrainians had a similar arsenal of comparable Russian missiles (e.g., the M-9A54 Tornado-S), they would have been able to inflict similar disruptions.

The HIMARS have created enormous logistical problems for the Russians.  It remains to be seen how they might adapt, particularly in terms of the countermeasures that they can take to suppress the HIMARS launchers.  We heard lots about the success of the Turkish Bhaktar drones and the US Javelins in the early months of the war, but as Russian doctrine and the area of engagement has shifted, we don't hear much about that.

I'm not saying that the HIMARS is a poor weapons system or that it's not doing what it's supposed to.  I'm just saying that the logistical transition from one side's weapons to another side's weapons largely outweighs any marginal improvement in their performance.  We know from the early days of the war that Russian equipment worked quite effectively when used and maintained by motivated (Ukrainian) troops.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 02:44:59 PM
QuoteAt the risk of sounding pedantic, are you certain that those savings are built into the nature of the contracts that the DoD has signed with Lockheed?  I've long worried that US defense spending exists primarily as a conduit for crony capitalism, and the output of an adequate number of high-quality weapons for our troops is very much a secondary consideration

batches of F-35s are bought yearly for the US military.  its not a close ended agreement on price.  so the jets bought in 5 years will be cheaper then the ones bought today.  likewise as the supply chain becomes more established and widespread the maintenance becomes cheaper for everyone.  as outtake from the Swiss:
https://skiesmag.com/news/swiss-bet-f35-affordability/

a snippet about price reduction from 2018:
https://breakingdefense.com/2018/10/f-35-hourly-flying-costs-plunge-12k-turkey-still-getting-100-f-35s/

a little less then 800 F-35s have been built so far for all customers.  extrapolate the costs when there are over 4000+ worldwide.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on July 28, 2022, 02:45:02 PM
QuoteI wonder what lessons are emerging around the need for adequate ordinance stockpiles in other countries in Europe?  For US forces based in Europe?  Clearly, the weapons-systems switchover from Russian-made arms to Western-made arms has been a painful transition for the Ukrainians (especially in heavier and more sophisticated weaponry).

The lessons were already there for those who didn't want to ignore them, but this is the first time most Western and Eastern European countries have a chance to see what modern ordinance expenditure is like in a large scale conflict.

Given the (very) limited NATO stockpiles in a number of member states and the (very) limited output by the arms industry in the first time it was tested (aside from aircraft ordinance manufacturers) since the Cold War, a conflict of this size would have rapidly drained stockpiles.

It's also a realism check for the arms industry that they can't go to a war footing on short notice, something which might be required by NATO in future conflicts. In that sense, moving older ordinance and equipment to Ukraine hides some painful truths about how capable the arms industry is in terms of responding to the outbreak of a genuine war.

Quoteit should.  the best example is the F-35 program.  Farnborough was extremely good the Lookheed Martin this year as everyone want in on or more of F-35s.  that directly reduces costs across the board.
Im in several heated debates about the state of US industry with a few people who complain about the lack of government / defense projects.  well they can stfu now because theres going to be work for years.

I remember our F-35 discussions from the Wargamer and you were optimistic about cost reductions and deliveries back then as well. Neither materialized. It's way over budget and suffered delay after delay. Even the limited order by the Dutch Air Force hasn't been fulfilled yet, and the first Dutch F-35's only arrived in October 2019. I'm very sceptical about any sort of good news about the project after all the bad news in the last 20 years. 

QuoteI've long worried that US defense spending exists primarily as a conduit for crony capitalism, and the output of an adequate number of high-quality weapons for our troops is very much a secondary consideration...

Given the enormous amount of money the US throws at Defense spending, I'm not impressed thus far in terms of production levels.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 02:55:41 PM
oh Comrade.....

QuoteI remember our F-35 discussions from the Wargamer and you were optimistic about cost reductions and deliveries back then as well. Neither materialized.

both have.  the F-35 has transitioned into quite the successful program no matter how much you may not like it.
its there to read if you want to find it.  you dont. you didnt then so Im not going to bother.

QuoteEven the limited order by the Dutch Air Force hasn't been fulfilled yet, and the first Dutch F-35's only arrived in October 2019.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/netherlands-begins-populating-second-f-35-squadron

you have one full squadron, half the planes ordered, but no... thats not enough for ComradeP!
who are the Dutch attacking so soon?  do you even know what the delivery schedule is?

QuoteI'm very sceptical about any sort of good news about the project after all the bad news in the last 20 years. 

if bad news is all you look for, bad news is all you get.  and its not like your known as an optimist to begin with.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 03:00:39 PM
QuoteGiven the enormous amount of money the US throws at Defense spending, I'm not impressed thus far in terms of production levels.

(https://res.cloudinary.com/teepublic/image/private/s--s8pNDpGj--/t_Resized%20Artwork/c_fit,g_north_west,h_1054,w_1054/co_ffffff,e_outline:53/co_ffffff,e_outline:inner_fill:53/co_bbbbbb,e_outline:3:1000/c_mpad,g_center,h_1260,w_1260/b_rgb:eeeeee/c_limit,f_auto,h_630,q_90,w_630/v1533836218/production/designs/3000299_0.jpg)

please Comrade, enlighten me as to what you know about US munition production levels and stockpiles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ComradeP on July 28, 2022, 03:20:15 PM
Quoteboth have.  the F-35 has transitioned into quite the successful program no matter how much you may not like it.
its there to read if you want to find it.  you dont. you didnt then so Im not going to bother.

Really? Your argument is that compared to 2005-2006 or so, the period I'm talking about, the F-35 program neither costs more nor faced delays in deliveries? That's bizarre.

Quoteyou have one full squadron, half the planes ordered, but no... thats not enough for ComradeP!
who are the Dutch attacking so soon?  do you even know what the delivery schedule is?

The Netherlands is a Tier 2 partner that got on board in 2002. An aircraft for testing was purchased in 2009 and the final political decision was made in 2013. I'm not sure why, again: given the limited number of aircraft, it should be seen as an achievement that 9 years later only about half the ordered aircraft were delivered? The first arriving in late 2019?

I'm supposed to be the one who tries to defend an argument that's difficult to hold on to Starfury, and "the F-35 production was not delayed" argument is exactly that kind of argument.

You would sell the F-35 door to door if you could, and that's fine, but don't pretend it's not way over budget compared to the early 2000's budget or that production wasn't delayed.

Quoteplease Comrade, enlighten me as to what you know about US munition production levels and stockpiles.

US stockpiles? I'm talking about European NATO stockpiles. As to US production: the Javelin production that didn't impress me. I don't know what overall production levels are like, I've only kept track of articles related to equipment being sent to Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 05:12:04 PM
move the goal posts however you like, you're still wrong.
back to the Ukraine news.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 28, 2022, 05:27:38 PM
Thanks for the article above, Star.  It's hard to argue that the situation around the F-35 hasn't improved dramatically from where it was 10 years ago.  However, even the article you cited makes it pretty clear that ongoing support costs remains a major risk area, with different parties seeing very different risk profiles there. 

It's not uncommon for weapon systems to face tremendous problems in the project phase and end up having a great service life.  But, until we see how the maintenance costs play out in the coming years, I'm not sure either of you can claim victory in this debate.

I'll let you and ComradeP figure out which of you was right in 2032!    :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 28, 2022, 07:40:13 PM
^heh
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on July 28, 2022, 08:09:32 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 28, 2022, 05:27:38 PM
I'll let you and ComradeP figure out which of you was right in 2032!    :)

;D The grognard forum debate special!  Twenty plus years in the making ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 08:28:50 PM
(https://render.fineartamerica.com/images/rendered/default/poster/10/8/break/images/artworkimages/medium/2/old-brick-wall-background-creativeye99.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 08:31:58 PM
I remember growing up reading about all of the problems with the F-4, F-15, F-14, B-1, B-2 and the LWF competition that spawned the F-16 and F-18.
he can complain all he wants about the program but in comparison its about as golden path as ya get.
add to that that the Israelis love it and if it has their stamp of approval.....  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 28, 2022, 09:09:13 PM
^That should have been your opening remark!

(https://static.timesofisrael.com/www/uploads/2019/07/%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%A9-%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%9E%D7%A9%D7%9C%D7%94-%D7%95%D7%A9%D7%A8-%D7%94%D7%91%D7%99%D7%98%D7%97%D7%95%D7%9F-%D7%91%D7%A0%D7%99%D7%9E%D7%99%D7%9F-%D7%A0%D7%AA%D7%A0%D7%99%D7%94%D7%95-%D7%A1%D7%99%D7%99%D7%A8-%D7%94%D7%91%D7%95%D7%A7%D7%A8-%D7%91%D7%98%D7%99%D7%99%D7%A1%D7%AA-%D7%9E%D7%98%D7%95%D7%A1%D7%99-%D7%94-F-35-%D7%95%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%93%D7%99%D7%95%D7%9F-%D7%91%D7%99%D7%98%D7%97%D7%95%D7%A0%D7%99-%D7%A6%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%95%D7%9D-%D7%A2%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A1-%D7%91%D7%9F-%D7%92%D7%A8%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%9D-%D7%9C%D7%A2%D7%9E-1024x640.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 29, 2022, 12:57:41 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2022, 08:31:58 PM
I remember growing up reading about all of the problems with the F-4, F-15, F-14, B-1, B-2 and the LWF competition that spawned the F-16 and F-18.
he can complain all he wants about the program but in comparison its about as golden path as ya get.
add to that that the Israelis love it and if it has their stamp of approval.....  :bd:
There's the recent decision by Finnish Air Force (https://www.defmin.fi/en/frontpage/administrative_branch/strategic_capability_projects/hx_fighter_program/topical) to jump in at Block4 as well.

Within the evaluation, F-35 was not only found out to be the most capable contender, but its operating costs were judged to fit the specified envelope as well.

I guess we're about to find out. First patch of deliveries in 2025. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on July 29, 2022, 11:30:42 AM
Just read an article on Yahoo about Russian soldiers castrating Ukrainian POW's. If this is true, nuke the fuckers :knuppel2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 29, 2022, 11:31:59 AM
 >:(

Link?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 29, 2022, 12:01:11 PM
It's there, do not watch it. Sick stuff. I am trying to unsee the half second I saw of it  :(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on July 29, 2022, 12:29:31 PM
Quote from: acctingman on July 29, 2022, 11:30:42 AM
Just read an article on Yahoo about Russian soldiers castrating Ukrainian POW's. If this is true, nuke the fuckers :knuppel2:

"Man, they sure hate us, don't they?"
"Yeah.  Hey!  Let's make them hate us more!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 29, 2022, 12:32:08 PM
Jesus
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 29, 2022, 02:17:27 PM
the sick fuck has already been identified.  name, home address, the lot.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on July 29, 2022, 02:55:12 PM
Lots of reports of torture and executions at the Russian POW camps. The Russians are treating their Ukrainian brothers as bad as they did the German/Nazi pows. The Germans put the Soviets through 5 years of Genocidal horror. The Ukrainians only asked to be left alone and Defended what was theirs after the Russians invaded. Humans suck but I hope the Ukrainians put a hit squad out on these sick bastards like the Israelies did to the Nazis.

Con
Ps one of the indications of over 40 Ukr pows killed in a mistaken air strike is now suspected to be the Russian Wagner group trying to cover up their war crimes
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 29, 2022, 03:29:37 PM
Today's the first day I've read about castrating. A new low? Probably not. Found the below image on BBC...it uses the cover art from Cossacks 3 for its background and reads: Zaporizhzhia, land of death to the occupiers

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/9220/production/_126080473_zaporizhzhialandofdeathtotheoccupiers.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 29, 2022, 04:23:15 PM
As previously noted, "Completely pissing off the Cossacks" was step... 4?... in Putin's strategy.

Haven't yet reached Step x, profit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on July 29, 2022, 07:46:31 PM
I can only assume that stuff like this was known to those in the scrum before, but to broadcast something like this in the open is the highlight of stupid.

Congrats.  Now, I could see any and every Ukrainian soldier and civilian fighting to the very end and then some.  We're looking at WW2 Japanese-defense-Okinawan-level resistance from here on out on an invading force that doesn't seem to be doing so well at the moment on a good day. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 30, 2022, 04:27:02 PM
As morale frays, it gets very easy to lose control of combat units in circumstances like this.  It ain't smart, but it's not like any army in history is without sins.

What sets the Russians and their allies apart in this conflict is the frequency with which this horrific stuff happens and the ability of modern cell phones to capture and transmit this info in near-real time.  If you compare that to the rigid censorship and long delays of military reporting on both sides in previous wars, it's truly revolutionary.

A skeptical voice in the back of my head says that we can't know whether all this stuff is real or not (we know that the Russians lie perpetually because they contradict each other and their previous statements on a daily basis, but if I were the Ukrainians and I were fighting for the survival of my country and my country's soldiers, I wouldn't hesitate to lie if it served my purposes).  A more pragmatic voice says if only one quarter of it is  true then the Russians and their allies are truly the monster's here.

That raises a different question:  What does victory look like for the West in Ukraine?  If the Russians simply retreat beyond Ukrainian borders and aren't forced to have a reckoning with what their government and their soldiers did here, we'll just be looking at another incident in another country sometime in the next few decades.

The German and Japanese people were brought to a reckoning after WW II through much harsher consequences than losing their iPhones, BMWs, and Big Macs for a few years. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 30, 2022, 08:00:31 PM
Victory for the West in Ukraine, and victory for Ukraine in Ukraine, at this point...are different scenarios.

Ukraine obviously wants to liberate all its occupied territory and kill as many Russian troops as possible. And now revenge is seeping into their strategy too.

Russia...clearly just wants to destroy Ukrainian identity and if it destroys 2/3 of the country in the process, creating a buffer between east and west, so be it.

The West is regularly accused of caving to the Russians in some way, whether its accepting Russian aggression, not providing enough weapons or other material support, or not being as dedicated to the cause as the Ukrainians would like.

I didn't want to believe this was turning into a war of attrition that would last many months or years but that is definitely, exactly what it is turning into.

Real victory for the West here would be regime change and modernization in Russia after a catastrophic set of military setbacks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 30, 2022, 08:21:43 PM
and how is that accomplished without this going nuclear?
thats really the crux of the problem here.  yes, NATO could roflstomp the russians without much of a problem but where does that lead?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 30, 2022, 09:14:21 PM
With time. Years. From the inside of Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 31, 2022, 12:15:43 AM
Would even peaceful regime change within Russia be enough to really put an end to this problem?  We were all hopeful, after the end of Communism and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, that we might finally be turning the page on Russian aggression and imperialism.

Fast-forward 20 years, and they've (re)embraced a strong man doing the exact same crap as the Communists did to Western Europe for 45 years after WW II.  I had high hopes for a change in Russian popular attitudes after the end of the Cold War, but I've seen no such thing. 

If Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan serve as any example, we have to rub Russians' nose in the shit for years on end before they're willing to shoulder responsibility for their own tendencies that led them to embrace a war of aggression.  I've seen little sign of that.

The realistic best-case scenario is probably that some sort of regime change in Russia means that Russia can gracefully exit Ukraine, or at least draw back to the lines occupied prior to this year's assault.  Ukraine is then able to join NATO, modernize their army further, and Russia will remain under sanctions until it either relinquishes the rest of Ukraine or provides all the war criminals that the world decides it needs to.

By then, hopefully, some combination of sanctions and the inbred mismanagement of the Russian kleptocracy will have them playing the role of handmaiden to China, exporting tall blonde women to their Asiatic neighbors while beating their chests about how manly and tough they are.  What a bunch of losers!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 01, 2022, 10:02:07 AM
They should have really concentrated on "Russia in one nation" first, so to speak. ;)

But kleptos gonna klept.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 01, 2022, 04:18:58 PM
Great news...for people who love bad news :/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-62381425
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 01, 2022, 06:43:47 PM
I honestly dont give a fuck anymore.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 01, 2022, 07:37:29 PM
Of course you do.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 01, 2022, 09:03:08 PM
nope
push that nuclear brink, fuck it.
this moment will define most of the next century in geopolitics. go hard or go home.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 01, 2022, 09:53:12 PM
The world's always been one mistake away from Nuclear War since Russia then other countries followed. Nothing new here for about 70 years. America's nuclear arsenal is what's allowed us to live those 70 years and remain free. The worst possible mistake would be to dispose of it now.  :wow:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on August 02, 2022, 08:43:18 AM
Just a friendly reminder but I can't get into exact details without getting into trouble.  But think of it like this.

"This world is like the Titanic, sinking fast.  There is a lifeboat however, you just need to believe."

That lifeboat could be a SpaceX rocketship, an underground bunker, or something else? 

YouTube "This world is sinking fast" and watch for the results that come up.  Just Watch man.  PM me with questions or comments but don't post it here or anywhere else on this site. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 02, 2022, 09:56:47 AM
Our people have known for about 2000 years that the world is sinking fast. Sometimes we ourselves have contributed to that, alas. (Respecting each other, and our 'older brothers', better and more consistently along the way would have been more helpful for everyone.)

Well, maybe the world is going down for the last time this time, and maybe it's not -- it has apparently been going down for the last time several times before! But either way it's good to have an anchor, and a map and navigation tools, and a sail in good repair to catch the wind during the calms and ride through the storms, until we reach our ports.

Ammo and cannons don't hurt either.  8) As long as we aren't raiding other ships along the way.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on August 02, 2022, 10:13:09 AM
^You speak the truth Jason.  Thanks for that message.   :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2022, 03:30:18 PM
" our people"?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on August 02, 2022, 03:59:09 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on August 02, 2022, 08:43:18 AM
Just a friendly reminder but I can't get into exact details without getting into trouble.  But think of it like this.

"This world is like the Titanic, sinking fast.  There is a lifeboat however, you just need to believe."

That lifeboat could be a SpaceX rocketship, an underground bunker, or something else? 

YouTube "This world is sinking fast" and watch for the results that come up.  Just Watch man.  PM me with questions or comments but don't post it here or anywhere else on this site.

How many times are you going to bump Jesus shit in this thread before you realize nobody gives a damn?  Other Christians already agree with you, and non-Christians won't be convinced.  Just give it up man.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on August 02, 2022, 06:19:10 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on August 02, 2022, 03:59:09 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on August 02, 2022, 08:43:18 AM
Just a friendly reminder but I can't get into exact details without getting into trouble.  But think of it like this.

"This world is like the Titanic, sinking fast.  There is a lifeboat however, you just need to believe."

That lifeboat could be a SpaceX rocketship, an underground bunker, or something else? 

YouTube "This world is sinking fast" and watch for the results that come up.  Just Watch man.  PM me with questions or comments but don't post it here or anywhere else on this site.


How many times are you going to bump Jesus shit in this thread before you realize nobody gives a damn?  Other Christians already agree with you, and non-Christians won't be convinced.  Just give it up man.

Yeah, you're right.  I'll cut it out.  You have my word.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2022, 09:18:56 PM
 ::)

anywho..... back to this war:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1554647160804851712/photo/1

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZM0k5OWAAE2wml?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 02, 2022, 10:50:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2022, 03:30:18 PM
"our people"?

W8 and I are on far-flung branches of a rather large, ancient, and broadly diverse group which, as an identifiable group, focuses on some things not entirely focused on by other people outside the group, although there are also (naturally) some very significant overlaps. But I promise, I only meant to be categorically descriptive, not exclusive:

after all, anyone can be a wargamer, if they want to.  8)


Back to this particular war. I was checking out Jomini's evaluation of Ukraine's war aims, and... I'm not sure if this was just phrased oddly, or if this is actually problematic, but the aim of "a politically independent Ukraine" does not seem to entirely gell with the aim of achieving a legally binding security guarantee agreement backed by powers including the European Union, along with cultural and economic integration with the European Union. I realize the confederacy of nation-states in this union (so to speak) isn't the same as a federal union, but one does not go into such an integration without also becoming politically interdependent, maybe more interdependent than most others in that group, especially if you're on a front line and hoping your partners will come help you repel any boarders arriving at the borders!

My point is that Ukraine got into this trouble partly by insisting on being a neutrally independent political state outside and apart from the EU while also expecting the EU (and NATO) to rush to their defense if those boarders crossed the borders. Have they really learned a lesson here, or will they go back to trying to have it both ways?

Switzerland can get away with being Switzerland smack in the middle of the EU without being part of the EU or the Eurozone, because they're Switzerland and have had a few centuries of practice being Switzerland. Ukraine reaaaaaallly wanted to be a much larger and more economically diverse (and maybe more roughly corrupt) Switzerland while also being (unavoidably, but also exploitably) a thorn in the side of Russia. This has not yet ended well for them -- as illustrated on the rest of the map.

If they try to be facing both ways again, this map is likely to be repeated in the future.

On the other hand, the cream of 1960s Soviet technology, peppered for flavor by some T90s and upgraded T72s, is currently haunting Crimea, so maybe Ukraine will bet that repeating this map wouldn't be so bad next time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 02, 2022, 11:02:00 PM
I for one give a damn al. As any good Christian should, W8 is merely trying to do what he believes may SAVE his fellow humans from a fate we all deserve, but maybe able to avoid regardless whether or not anyone listens. His motives are pure and not self-serving. And he tried to couch them in a way that would not offend anyone. One would imagine people could simply ignore that with which they disagree out of respect for a fellow human being and person they've interacted with here for years. The viciousness of your response to W8 shows you to be truly a person in need of hearing that Jesus-shit message most of all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 03, 2022, 12:29:33 AM
uuuhhhhh......... no  :bd:

we all know its rough to talk about the world today without crossing boundaries but mostly we get it done.
keep getting it done.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 03, 2022, 12:35:45 AM
QuoteMy point is that Ukraine got into this trouble partly by insisting on being a neutrally independent political state outside and apart from the EU while also expecting the EU (and NATO) to rush to their defense if those boarders crossed the borders. Have they really learned a lesson here, or will they go back to trying to have it both ways?

so you're saying that the Ukraine asked / deserved to be invaded because it dared try to be an independent state while cleaning up its act to meet EU standards?  are you actually that daft?  if russia didnt have nukes this would have a been a GW1 response from day 1.  its a sovereign fucking country!  who the fuck do you actually think needs to learn a leason here?  rational people would like to know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 03, 2022, 06:54:19 AM
It's best to keep R&P out of this thread as we've been doing, including odd oblique references and invitations.

I thought al's response was fine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 03, 2022, 08:59:30 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 02, 2022, 10:50:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2022, 03:30:18 PM
"our people"?

My point is that Ukraine got into this trouble partly by insisting on being a neutrally independent political state outside and apart from the EU while also expecting the EU (and NATO) to rush to their defense if those boarders crossed the borders. Have they really learned a lesson here, or will they go back to trying to have it both ways?


I don't think you meant to, but you almost sound like you are parroting Russian talking points; ie. if a kid defies a bully and then gets hit by the bully...the 'Russian' logic says he 'asked for' his black-eye.

Quote from: JasonPratt on August 02, 2022, 10:50:08 PM
Have they really learned a lesson here, or will they go back to trying to have it both ways?

No lesson to learn, they don't want to be a puppet like Belarus and they just want to be free.

If anyone wants to know what this war is about IMHO, I highly recommend the documentary "Winter on Fire" on Netflix.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 03, 2022, 09:08:54 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 03, 2022, 06:54:19 AM
It's best to keep R&P out of this thread as we've been doing, including odd oblique references and invitations.

+1

Please let's keep R&P out of this. Feelings can run very strong with R&P, and divisions can be deep even among folks who are otherwise 'affiliated' with each other. The Thirty-Years' War should have taught us something... :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 03, 2022, 10:25:19 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 03, 2022, 12:35:45 AM
QuoteMy point is that Ukraine got into this trouble partly by insisting on being a neutrally independent political state outside and apart from the EU while also expecting the EU (and NATO) to rush to their defense if those boarders crossed the borders. Have they really learned a lesson here, or will they go back to trying to have it both ways?

so you're saying that the Ukraine asked / deserved to be invaded because it dared try to be an independent state while cleaning up its act to meet EU standards?  are you actually that daft?  if russia didnt have nukes this would have a been a GW1 response from day 1.  its a sovereign fucking country!  who the fuck do you actually think needs to learn a leason here?  rational people would like to know.

Of course I'm not saying that Ukraine deserved (in a moral sense) to be invaded, much less asked to be invaded, good grief! But they overtly did not want to be involved in NATO or the EU, for various reasons (including but not limited to not provoking the bear who didn't want them in NATO or even the EU), and so they had no military treaty for mutual defense. Are you saying we would have gone directly on day one into a shooting war (a la Gulf War 1 to oust Iraq from Kuwait, striking into Iraq as far as we cared to go to zorch their military power) against Russia, a member of the UN Security Council, for a non-ally, if Russia didn't have nukes? -- or that the EU would have done so?

If so, why are other neutral border nations now desperately hopping on the NATO and/or EU bandwagon? -- aren't the NATO and EU nations prepared to go into a counter-invading shooting war against prime-United Nations-member Russia for their sake, up to and including throwing down our own nuclear deterrents (and the EU's), even if those other neutral border sovereign nations aren't military allies? No, obviously not!

Ukraine had plenty of time to "clean up its act", with God knows enough hot problems from Russian conquests already for years. If they think they can take Russia alone, even after years of not being able to take Russia alone, then that's their judgment. (Obviously I'm talking about the government, and the people behind the government, not the people who aren't in charge.) If on the other hand they want to be treated like military allies, then they had better be military allies before the Russians cross the border, preferably long before.

Russia is responsible for invading Ukraine, now and in prior years: that's indisputable. Also responsible for various war-crimes in the process, also indisputable. (When have I ever said otherwise? When have I not been cheering on Ukrainian successes, and mourning its losses??) But Ukraine is responsible for its own choices, too, precisely because it's a sovereign country.

Was Zelensky (and his crew, including his power-backers) really in the process of changing things enough to "clean up their act", so that's why Putin figured he'd better invade now while he still had a chance? Okay, I'll provisionally grant that, at least for sake of argument. But their past history suggests, even under significant levels of military defeat, that their government (and the powers behind their government) would prefer to have the benefits of marrying into the EU/NATO without actually marrying the EU/NATO; and that contradictory goal leads to strategic (also tactical) weakness which Putin has been exploiting already for years.

Are they going to go back to that geo-political strategy, if they think they can get away with it this time? Only if enough people in power over there have learned not to play footsie with European tensions. But if they want into the EU (and/or NATO) they'll have to accept a lot of interdependence, and in their case a lot of dependence, that they've previously been trying to avoid for their notion of an independent political state on the border of a hostile criminal regime.

(Or as I noted, if Ukraine gets out of this with Russia reduced to being a 1960s Bond-villain military plus some spotty science-fiction weapons by 1960s standards, maybe their government and its power-brokers will feel safe going back to the status quo that they previously preferred.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 03, 2022, 10:46:00 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 03, 2022, 09:08:54 AM
Please let's keep R&P out of this. Feelings can run very strong with R&P, and divisions can be deep even among folks who are otherwise 'affiliated' with each other. The Thirty-Years' War should have taught us something... :coolsmiley:
I'm keeping my Personal Text quotation though, hope that's OK with everyone  O:-)  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 03, 2022, 10:55:19 AM
For some amusing war news we can all agree on cheering:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-blows-up-its-ammunition-while-trying-to-hide-from-himars-report/ar-AA10eJNm?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=8ae762422d7143f39f3fcc8b9cdcd175

Of course it's currently unconfirmed, but not too surprising if true.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 03, 2022, 11:50:49 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 03, 2022, 10:25:19 AM
But they overtly did not want to be involved in NATO or the EU, for various reasons

https://uatv.ua/en/ukrainian-parliament-amends-constitution-set-path-eu-nato-membership/

The Ukrainian Parliament adopted an amendment to the Constitution of Ukraine that enshrines a future with both European Union and NATO membership.

According to the amendment, full membership in the European Union and NATO is a strategic course for Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 03, 2022, 12:10:12 PM
QuoteAre you saying we would have gone directly on day one into a shooting war (a la Gulf War 1 to oust Iraq from Kuwait, striking into Iraq as far as we cared to go to zorch their military power) against Russia, a member of the UN Security Council, for a non-ally, if Russia didn't have nukes? -- or that the EU would have done so?

yes because thats what you do to bullies.
keep in mind that the russian military when this shit started is smaller then Iraq's back then.
its only nukes that keep them from getting royally fucked.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 03, 2022, 12:14:03 PM
The Ukrainian Parliament's Resolution is exactly the reason we DON'T want that to happen. If accepted into NATO back in 2019, that would have obligated America and the EU to go to war to defend Ukrainian territory including the Crimea if Ukraine says it's still their land. Completely different from Ukraine defending itself with our help. No Rational person should want war with Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 03, 2022, 12:15:17 PM
QuoteWas Zelensky (and his crew, including his power-backers) really in the process of changing things enough to "clean up their act", so that's why Putin figured he'd better invade now while he still had a chance? Okay, I'll provisionally grant that, at least for sake of argument. But their past history suggests, even under significant levels of military defeat, that their government (and the powers behind their government) would prefer to have the benefits of marrying into the EU/NATO without actually marrying the EU/NATO; and that contradictory goal leads to strategic (also tactical) weakness which Putin has been exploiting already for years.

Are they going to go back to that geo-political strategy, if they think they can get away with it this time? Only if enough people in power over there have learned not to play footsie with European tensions. But if they want into the EU (and/or NATO) they'll have to accept a lot of interdependence, and in their case a lot of dependence, that they've previously been trying to avoid for their notion of an independent political state on the border of a hostile criminal regime.

I really wonder if your living on the same planet that I am.  have you done any reading or research on this topic?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on August 03, 2022, 01:57:12 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 03, 2022, 06:54:19 AM
I thought al's response was fine.

I disagree and here's why:

If al, who has continually abused me in many other threads with ugly language, was doing his job correctly he should have told me to cease and desist in my activities.  Instead he used insults.  I am not trying to stir up trouble but I AM pointing out that as a moderator he should have use more tactful manners to correct a wrong I did. 

I forgive you al and I love you. 

I don't want to talk about this anymore and I don't want this to continue.  I've said my peace, now I withdraw.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on August 03, 2022, 02:07:50 PM
I'm not a board moderator in the same sense as Gus and JH.  I only remove spam and do not represent Grogheads as a board.  Please don't interpret my comments as representing Grogheads in any way.  I'm basically just a janitor.

It wasn't my intent to be insulting or offensive, but I'm sorry if you feel insulted by my reply.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 03, 2022, 04:11:21 PM
"If Ukraine didn't want to be invaded, she wouldn't have dressed that way."

My sense is that Ukraine was largely a proxy of Russia under the Yanukovich regime until the revolution that ousted him in 2014.  This revolution followed Yanukovich's rejection of the widely-approved-by-Ukrainian-legislators move to shift away from Russian orbit and reach West, which led to protests, which led to armed suppression, which led to more violent protests, which culminated in Yanukovich's ouster.  There have always been factions in Ukraine that are more pro-Russian and other factions that are more pro-European.

Shortly after that revolution, Russian troops (aided by Ukrainian separatists) occupied various parts of Eastern Ukraine.  The Ukrainian army at that time had little to say about it.

From 2014 until early 2022, Ukraine seems to have been trying to thread the needle to leave the Russian orbit and enter the European orbit, but to do so in such a way that they didn't trigger a Russian occupation of the rest of their country.  During that time, they've also been training and rebuilding their army like crazy--partly in an effort to deal with the brush war waging in those Eastern and Southeastern portions of Russia, but also partly out of fear of a Russian invasion.

I don't want to exaggerate the Ukrainians' innocence in this whole affair.  There have been sordid actors in the pro-Russian and anti-Russian factions, as well as other interests just looking to profiteer from whichever side they can.  But unoccupied Ukraine's overall trajectory has been decidedly pro-Western since 2014.

Russia invaded in early 2022, catching almost everybody still living in 2021 by total surprise.  One can only speculate on why Russia invaded; Putin hasn't granted any exclusive interviews to Barbara Walters recently.  But the narratives provided by Russia to justify the invasion in the first place have been universally rejected by almost the entire free world.  This is remarkable, given how many of those same media and government sources saw fit to question all sorts of US policies in other parts of the word.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 03, 2022, 04:14:11 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 03, 2022, 04:11:21 PM
"If Ukraine didn't want to be invaded, she wouldn't have dressed that way."

My sense is that Ukraine was largely a proxy of Russia under the Yanukovich regime until the revolution that ousted him in 2014.  This revolution followed Yanukovich's rejection of the widely-approved-by-Ukrainian-legislators move to shift away from Russian orbit and reach West, which led to protests, which led to armed suppression, which led to more violent protests, which culminated in Yanukovich's ouster.  There have always been factions in Ukraine that are more pro-Russian and other factions that are more pro-European.

Shortly after that revolution, Russian troops (aided by Ukrainian separatists) occupied various parts of Eastern Ukraine.  The Ukrainian army at that time had little to say about it.

From 2014 until early 2022, Ukraine seems to have been trying to thread the needle to leave the Russian orbit and enter the European orbit, but to do so in such a way that they didn't trigger a Russian occupation of the rest of their country.  During that time, they've also been training and rebuilding their army like crazy--partly in an effort to deal with the brush war waging in those Eastern and Southeastern portions of Russia, but also partly out of fear of a Russian invasion.

I don't want to exaggerate the Ukrainians' innocence in this whole affair.  There have been sordid actors in the pro-Russian and anti-Russian factions, as well as other interests just looking to profiteer from whichever side they can.  But unoccupied Ukraine's overall trajectory has been decidedly pro-Western since 2014.

Russia invaded in early 2022, catching almost everybody still living in 2021 by total surprise.  One can only speculate on why Russia invaded; Putin hasn't granted any exclusive interviews to Barbara Walters recently.  But the narratives provided by Russia to justify the invasion in the first place have been universally rejected by almost the entire world and by the entire "free world".  This is remarkable, given how many of those same media and government sources saw fit to question all sorts of US policies in other parts of the world over the last 25 years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on August 03, 2022, 05:10:07 PM
No worries al.  It's all good.  I know you didn't mean to offend. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 03, 2022, 06:30:47 PM
Ok it looks as if things have calmed down here. Not in Ukraine, though.

This is definitely quotable: "If Ukraine didn't want to be invaded, she wouldn't have dressed that way."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 03, 2022, 09:45:18 PM
Of course with Russia's history of Sexual Predator-ship, nobody should dress anyway around her but in full head-to-toe armor plate.   :hide:   Sooners post above lays the facts and timeline out very well I think. Neither countries are saints here but only one is clearly the aggressor. And that should be condemned by all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 03, 2022, 11:08:53 PM
It's pure speculation on my part, but here's why I think Putin invaded Ukraine:  Ukraine "going European" was not an existential threat to the country or people of Russia, but it was an existential threat to Putin's plans for an Imperial Renewal of Russia.  It took a whole string of (mis)calculations for Putin & Pals to get the world into this current dilemma, but here we go:

1) Putin & Co. thought invading the rest of Ukraine would be as easy/unopposed as when they sent troops into places like Syria (2015), the Crimea & Donetsk provinces of Ukraine (2014), Kyrghyzstan (2012), and Chechnya (2000).  Obviously, they were wrong.

But they still wouldn't have invaded unless Putin considered Ukraine/the Ukrainian regime as a threat to his dreams for renewed Russian domination of Eastern Europe.  Consider:

2) Ukraine was pivoting West very quickly, with gratifying results to most of its people.  This would make a dangerous example for other neighbors who had never before left the Russian orbit.

3) Zelensky was himself very well equipped to appeal to the Russian people.  Raised in Eastern Ukraine, in a Russian-speaking home, he was a Ukrainian TV star.  That meant he had spent much of his career trying to make it into a "big time TV market" (i.e., Russia).  He understood Russian audiences in a way that few foreigners did.  Putin was, I think, afraid of losing "a culture war" that would turn his beloved kleptocracy/country into just another soft, Western-leaning democracy.

We'll never be able to prove what was going on in Putin's head.  But it's clear that he considered Ukraine a threat to his imperialist ambitions.  Given how easily he'd been able to occupy other countries (see list above) with feeble excuses, there was little reason to think that Ukraine would go differently.  Truth be told, if the Ukrainians had not fought so hard and so effectively, I doubt the West would have done much besides ring their hands and keep buying Russian gas, oil, and coal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2022, 09:42:11 AM
the current state of russias nuclear arsenal?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZUkiUeWQAI0KdT?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 04, 2022, 10:22:25 AM
Rules of the Road: The Nukes ALWAYS have the Right-Of-Way.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 04, 2022, 10:46:11 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on August 03, 2022, 11:50:49 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 03, 2022, 10:25:19 AM
But they overtly did not want to be involved in NATO or the EU, for various reasons

https://uatv.ua/en/ukrainian-parliament-amends-constitution-set-path-eu-nato-membership/

The Ukrainian Parliament adopted an amendment to the Constitution of Ukraine that enshrines a future with both European Union and NATO membership.

According to the amendment, full membership in the European Union and NATO is a strategic course for Ukraine.


In other words, only three years ago (Feb to invasion this Feb), after a bunch of disasters from Russian military action already, and with no actual plans (at that time) to do anything. (Which to be fair wouldn't be in a Constitutional Amendment per se, or so I suppose.) Also, five years after the 2014 revolution putting more pro-western politicians into power. These facts are well within my overall assessment and cautious scepticism about what Ukraine may do or not do after the war (which I'm solidly treating as ending in their favor one way or another).


Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 03, 2022, 12:10:12 PM
QuoteAre you saying we would have gone directly on day one into a shooting war (a la Gulf War 1 to oust Iraq from Kuwait, striking into Iraq as far as we cared to go to zorch their military power) against Russia, a member of the UN Security Council, for a non-ally, if Russia didn't have nukes? -- or that the EU would have done so?

yes because thats what you do to bullies.
keep in mind that the russian military when this shit started is smaller then Iraq's back then.
its only nukes that keep them from getting royally fucked.

[...]

I really wonder if your living on the same planet that I am.


I'm living on the planet with geopolitical realities, treaties, alliances, lacks thereof, and a bunch of complexities (both in local politics, in EU politics, and in UN politics) that do not reduce down to schoolyard counterattacks on bullies, regardless of how much I hate bullies and sympathize with the idea of everyone ganging up on them pronto.

GW1 is NOT analogous to this situation, even aside from the nuclear question; and even GW1 isn't analogous to kids instantly ganging up on a bully to ruin his ability to do that anymore. For that matter, GW1 didn't resolve the issue, thanks to all those realworld geopolitical complexities: Hussein thumbed his nose at the United Nations for ten years for their/our charity in calling a halt to give him time to think over his life choices; used WMDs on his own population control meanwhile; tried to develop nuclear WMDs; built his army back up in an invasion form again; and then got punched out at last as a rogue nation by the US losing patience (and looking for some political capitalization) in a highly contentious GW2 that is still today regarded in many places as an overtly and even criminally unjustified finale to the paused GW1 war.

I kind of doubt that any human being is capable of taking account of all the factors involved in the current war, but at least I'm trying to be realistic about both it and the political situation(s) surrounding it, before and (potentially) after. That includes trying to factor out my emotional bias in favor of defending the Ukrainian people against an(other) obvious conquering invasion. (And rescuing the Russian people from a dictatorial regime, for that matter.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 04, 2022, 11:01:08 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 03, 2022, 11:08:53 PM
It's pure speculation on my part, but here's why I think Putin invaded Ukraine:  Ukraine "going European" was not an existential threat to the country or people of Russia, but it was an existential threat to Putin's plans for an Imperial Renewal of Russia. [...]

We'll never be able to prove what was going on in Putin's head.  But it's clear that he considered Ukraine a threat to his imperialist ambitions.  Given how easily he'd been able to occupy other countries (see list above) with feeble excuses, there was little reason to think that Ukraine would go differently.  Truth be told, if the Ukrainians had not fought so hard and so effectively, I doubt the West would have done much besides ring their hands and keep buying Russian gas, oil, and coal.

Totally agree, with the proviso that from the perspective of how the Russian government still thinks about its own satellite states, Ukraine looks like yet another fortified sector for NATO to launch a conquering invasion from. "Only the naive see Fortified Sectors as being primarily for defense," as some Soviet-era general once said, whose name I've forgotten offhand.

Based on Putin's own remarks about his plans for Ukraine, as quoted somewhere waaaay upthread weeks or a few months ago, he planned to use the Ukrainian area precisely in this fashion to go after more territories farther west. He's someone who thinks this way, as are his political supporters; so he also thinks that way about NATO threats, even though we know that NATO isn't an existential threat to the country or people of Russia.

Of course, I'm not (yet) convinced that the Ukrainian government as a whole was pivoting as quickly west as Putin believed -- they capitalized hard on being a handy local neutral government, and Putin's own actions goosed them sporadically toward us. But I don't think that invalidates your analysis at all.  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2022, 11:10:40 AM
the thing the russia doesnt get is that no one wants to invade or take or their shithole country,
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 04, 2022, 12:22:12 PM
Star, I share your moral contempt for the Russian government.  I just don't think we can reduce the situation to as simple a metaphor as you propose.

Or, if you'll indulge me, I view walking onto the playground and starting to beat the crap out of Russia as starting a fight with a radical extremist bully who's also wearing a gigantic suicide vest.      :timeout:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 04, 2022, 12:54:02 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2022, 11:10:40 AM
the thing the russia doesnt get is that no one wants to invade or take or their shithole country,

  I am a little puzzled by what the current Russian regime hopes to gain by continuing this war.  Is it just that they can't see any way to stop themselves?  It's pretty clear that their stated goals
have expanded (or become more nebulous or insane?) in lock-step with the decline in their likelihood of getting anything worthwhile out of the mess.  You can sort of see the annexation plans for various
regions (including Kharkov where they have not done well from day one) as a kind of pretext for continuing to blow things up.  They can sort of fool themselves by saying to themselves (since who
is trying comprehend them anymore really?)-- Oh never mind about annexing or blowing up things because we're just too busy annexing or blowing up things to stop annexing or blowing up things.
Kind of a weird circle of self-deception that no one else can fathom.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 04, 2022, 03:50:39 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2022, 11:10:40 AM
the thing the russia doesnt get is that no one wants to invade or take or their shithole country,

After having an appreciable chuckle at that, I thought: from their perspective, the threat is probably more like "if they kick in our door, the whole rotten structure will collapse". Apply several levels of irony as applicable.

Come to think of it, China might be the only country who wants to take and hold Russian territory, though by soft means right now.

Meanwhile... I suspect the ball may already be in Ukraine's court? If they can't shut down Russia by winter, Putin might think he can force a diplomatic win in order to turn on the natural gas to Europe. (Or, would the EU invade their country to take the gas not the land...?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 04, 2022, 03:51:10 PM
Their aim can't be to gain economic advantage (at least in the near term) since they are basically destroying everything they capture.  They will then be stuck with a ton more territory with no economic output and considerable demands on Russia's economy if it is to be rebuilt.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 04, 2022, 04:31:55 PM
There's more of a chance I will play in the NBA than of the EU invading Russia to seize gas.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 05, 2022, 08:21:42 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 04, 2022, 04:31:55 PM
There's more of a chance I will play in the NBA than of the EU invading Russia to seize gas.

"THE JEWISH MISSILE IS RUNNING UNDER HOPKINS! NOTHING CAN STOP HIM FOR THE EASY LAYUP, AND ANOTHER TWO POINTS! PLAYERS KEEP FOULING OUT TRYING TO STOP HIS STEAMROLL TO VICTORY -- HIS TEAM WON'T EVEN HAVE TO OUTSCORE THEY'LL WIN ON A DEFAULT!"  :D

...come to think of it, it would be pretty ironic if, let's say, Italy and Germany and Romania (not in that priority of importance) used the Ukraine region as a springboard to open up gas pipelines into western Europe. But no, that isn't going to happen, so we're back to Ukraine winning solidly before they cut off Ukraine's supplies to get Russia to turn on the gas for the winter.

Even if Ukraine somehow wins solidly enough for their purposes and also to get Russia to back off, would Russia turn the gas back on for western Europe at this point? Maybe for economic reasons, but their economy is being zorched to a crisp already.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 05, 2022, 08:36:37 AM
Some pretty fantastic reports or thoughts from Russian propogandist's that North Korea nod Russia might drop sanctions, provide energy and grain to North Korea in exchange for over 100,000 NK "volunteers" and artillery systems to be sent to fight in Ukraine.  Sounds unlikely but playing it out what would that mean for the war if NK got involved and supplied that level of trained manpower and arty?  Would it be effective?
Short term the NORKS could relive garrisons in the Donbas to fight

Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 05, 2022, 09:00:18 AM
Haha Pratt that is good stuff :)

100K North Korean reinforcements??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 05, 2022, 09:29:23 AM
"HE KEEPS YELLING 'KHAZAD DU-BEKAR (http://www.grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=18319.0)' IN A SCOTTISH ACCENT, NO ONE KNOWS WHAT HE MEANS!"

Hm, so the Norks have decided it's time to stop screwing around and really kick WW3 into gear? Or maybe they only count as a 'Great Power' in their own mind. ;)

More seriously, would China be involved in back-dooring such a deal?

Less seriously, would Norks be bringing over any robotic locusts they captured from US spies to release upon Ukrainian fields?

More seriously, but maybe also less seriously: could the Norks even field 100K trained soldiers worth sending? Or would their 'training' (and 'equipment') be equivalent to what Putin has already thrown out there? And if so (i.e. kind of crappy reinforcements), maybe that would still give Russia the win just for having warm bodies willing and able to man captured areas on defense?

I mean, it isn't like having a major number of troops speaking and reading Korean (in a North dialect presumably) would be that much more disruptive to Russian CCC at this point...  ::) (Though more seriously that would seem like a major handicap to Russia.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 05, 2022, 09:33:10 AM
^Even though your insanity is shining through on that last post it brings up a good point - would North Korea be proven to be less fierce than they want to be viewed, just like the Russians earlier this year?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 05, 2022, 09:35:41 AM
Even if the troops were sufficient quality (however sufficient that needs to be), I would think the logistic snarls would be nightmarish for Russia, too, in the condition they're already in.

On the other hand, Shrapnel Games might release an expansion for Raging Tiger, so there's that.  :clap:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 05, 2022, 09:46:57 AM
 ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 05, 2022, 10:23:39 AM
I think the Norks biggest worry would be EVER getting their troops back. They may have to send 200K more just to bring them home at gunpoint.  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 05, 2022, 10:41:29 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 05, 2022, 10:23:39 AM
I think the Norks biggest worry would be EVER getting their troops back. They may have to send 200K more just to bring them home at gunpoint.  :2funny:
On the other hand, getting them back would let them tell their relatives that a war zone in the Ukraine is better than living in peace in North Korea. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 05, 2022, 11:52:59 AM
Man, I yearn for the good old days, when "Baghdad Bob" would tell us a straight-up lie BUT we could see through the lie to understand what he was really saying.

In other news, an interesting article today on the possible downside of unqualified disbursements of weapons to our Ukrainian allies...


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-military-aid-weapons-front-lines/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 05, 2022, 12:53:47 PM
for the first time a full squadron of F-22s will do a rotation in Poland.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-f-22-raptors-arrive-in-poland
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 05, 2022, 02:20:47 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 05, 2022, 12:53:47 PM
for the first time a full squadron of F-22s will do a rotation in Poland.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-f-22-raptors-arrive-in-poland

Good!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on August 05, 2022, 03:24:01 PM
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/world/100000-north-korean-soldiers-could-be-sent-to-bolster-putins-forces-fighting-ukraine/news-story/1126782c8c5e6fe08a8ad2d9fa38dff0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on August 05, 2022, 04:01:30 PM
Wow that is an absolute ass-load of soldiers.  If the report is accurate, what could NK possibly gain by throwing a bunch of bodies into the meat grinder?  Brownie points from a dictator who by all accounts has single digit years left to live?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 05, 2022, 04:27:53 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on August 05, 2022, 04:01:30 PM
Wow that is an absolute ass-load of soldiers.  If the report is accurate, what could NK possibly gain by throwing a bunch of bodies into the meat grinder?  Brownie points from a dictator who by all accounts has single digit years left to live?

Russia gets grinder meat and hardware. Norks get some sanction relief. Win-win for the two parties.
Extended PRK maneuvers/exercises on the border though could stop this IMO.

Of course this would result in a quid pro quo for Ukraine somewhere. Cuba?

Ahh the possibilities.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 05, 2022, 04:39:09 PM
dont fuck with women snipers!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1555626052847865858

Id be really really surprised if nk soldiers go to russia at all.  whatever happened to the 10k syrians that were supposed to be on the front lines?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 05, 2022, 04:40:56 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 05, 2022, 02:20:47 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 05, 2022, 12:53:47 PM
for the first time a full squadron of F-22s will do a rotation in Poland.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-f-22-raptors-arrive-in-poland

Good!
We should have claimed they had been flying over Poland for months and they just couldn't be detected.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 05, 2022, 04:59:27 PM
no need, our F-35s have been doing that for months.  :bd:
and by our I mean the USAF and NATO.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 07, 2022, 06:32:55 PM
todays greatest hit:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1556367241196847107
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 08, 2022, 03:07:48 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 07, 2022, 06:32:55 PM
todays greatest hit:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1556367241196847107
July's - or possibly: this year's - greatest hit

https://twitter.com/ItsBorys/status/1553743958215467008
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 08, 2022, 10:59:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 07, 2022, 06:32:55 PM
todays greatest hit:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1556367241196847107

Definitely mixed emotions when I see a video like that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 08, 2022, 11:08:39 AM
its easy to stay alive when you dont invade a county.  :arr:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 08, 2022, 11:42:33 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 08, 2022, 11:08:39 AM
its easy to stay alive when you dont invade a county.  :arr:

Absolutely it is.
I just think about the casualties and their families. Unaware pawns in situation caused by sociopaths and a kleptocratic government.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 08, 2022, 06:31:39 PM
oh my

https://defence-blog.com/unnamed-nato-customer-orders-rheinmetalls-155mm-artillery-ammunition/?fbclid=IwAR2k0U60v_9C5LDckfSZBh3cB5eLtaKlSe2sHbdeNQT_regQlu9QkRePP3Q
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 08, 2022, 10:32:16 PM
Luxembourg prepares for it's return to greatness.  :knuppel2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 09, 2022, 07:31:28 AM
It's for the 155mm guns on Luxembourg's navy.  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 09, 2022, 10:24:56 AM
 :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 09, 2022, 10:29:58 AM
When I say "guns" I mean "railguns". They can knock incoming jets and even missiles out of the sky in one shot!

Do not approach Luxembourg's lake.

(Israel will be selling some lasers for their lake-monitors next year.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2022, 02:34:16 PM
well something hit a lot of planes at an airbase in the Crimea over 200km from the front line.  :knuppel2:\

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZufwFAWIAE3sO8?format=jpg&name=large)

the photos and video Ive show at least 2 su-24s totally wrecked.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 09, 2022, 04:46:32 PM
How do you say 'Hey man, nice shot' in Ukrainian?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on August 09, 2022, 04:51:51 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 09, 2022, 04:46:32 PM
How do you say 'Hey man, nice shot' in Ukrainian?

Hahaha! Yes!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 09, 2022, 05:21:09 PM
The Russians are blaming careless smoking....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2022, 05:49:27 PM
thats a lot of smoking

https://twitter.com/i/status/1557009861040373760
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 09, 2022, 06:00:10 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 09, 2022, 07:31:28 AM
It's for the 155mm guns on Luxembourg's navy.  >:D
Don't be an idiot, Jason.  Luxembourg doesn't have a Navy. 

It's just for their Coast Guard!

;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 09, 2022, 06:42:19 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2022, 05:49:27 PM
thats a lot of smoking

https://twitter.com/i/status/1557009861040373760

Simultaneous HE smoking
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 09, 2022, 07:13:16 PM
Those are some serious mushroom clouds. Ukraine is being so coy in it's responses!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 09, 2022, 07:16:30 PM
There is some real gold in those twitter comments.

(https://twitter.com/i/status/1557007764823703553)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 09, 2022, 08:56:13 PM
From (apparently?) a Ukrainian Defense Ministry tweet: "The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine would like to remind everyone that the presence of occupying troops on the territory of Ukrainian Crimea is not compatible with the high tourist season." {shows photo of mushroom cloud rising over beach-party huts}

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1557061408340287490
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 09, 2022, 09:23:18 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 09, 2022, 08:56:13 PM
From (apparently?) a Ukrainian Defense Ministry tweet: "The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine would like to remind everyone that the presence of occupying troops on the territory of Ukrainian Crimea is not compatible with the high tourist season." {shows photo of mushroom cloud rising over beach-party huts}

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1557061408340287490

I thought that was a photoshop, but apparently not.  I did see a story about a week ago about Russian tourists vacationing in the Crimea. They can't go anywhere else.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2022/08/10/crimea-russian-tourists-bomb/ (https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2022/08/10/crimea-russian-tourists-bomb/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 09, 2022, 09:38:54 PM
That could be the defining image of the first part of this century.

(https://thenewdaily.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/1660071263-russia-crimea-ukraine-tnd-edm.png?w=960)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 09, 2022, 10:53:03 PM
"In Putin's Russia, you no smoke cigarettes. Cigarettes smoke you"!  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2022, 10:58:11 PM
might be missiles launched from Odessa:

https://twitter.com/rrichcord/status/1557169834215018496

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZwtkOdX0AEvrHR?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2022, 11:00:04 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZw4WgiWQAAYdoN?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 12:26:53 AM
the most effective Ukrainian ammo!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZvWTTcXoAEYkf1?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 10, 2022, 07:19:19 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 09, 2022, 09:38:54 PM
That could be the defining image of the first part of this century.

(https://thenewdaily.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/1660071263-russia-crimea-ukraine-tnd-edm.png?w=960)

  And on the Sea of Azov?

Fire breaks out after explosion in Russian port on Sea of Azov
From CNN's Tim Lister, Josh Pennington and Anna Chernova

A large fire has broken out in the Russian port of Yeysk on the Sea of Azov, near the Russia-Ukraine border.

Yeysk is located across the water from the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol, which was targeted heavily during the start of the invasion.

Social media videos and images geolocated by CNN show a thick plume of dark smoke drifting across the town. One video shows a substantial explosion occurring.

Russian state news agency TASS said a fire broke out in a hangar building spanning 550 square meters. Emergency services are on the scene and there are no casualties, TASS reported, citing the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Krasnodar.

Local and regional authorities have not released any official comment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 10, 2022, 07:40:49 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2022, 10:58:11 PM
might be missiles launched from Odessa:

https://twitter.com/rrichcord/status/1557169834215018496

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZwtkOdX0AEvrHR?format=png&name=small)

  Holy Crap!  Magneto-acoustics?  totally new to me!  Wonderful!!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 10, 2022, 07:42:33 AM
I plugged "...and there are no casualties" into the English to Russian to English translator and got back "...and there are body parts everywhere on fire".  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 10, 2022, 07:51:24 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 12:26:53 AM
the most effective Ukrainian ammo!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZvWTTcXoAEYkf1?format=jpg&name=large)

I have to wonder how much better off the world would be if everyone had a kitten purring around them.

...on consideration, the world would be screwed, because kittens and cats are adorably psychotic at destroying productivity, figuratively and literally!  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 10, 2022, 08:56:36 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 12:26:53 AM
the most effective Ukrainian ammo!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZvWTTcXoAEYkf1?format=jpg&name=large)

Attacking with Schrodinger's cat?

https://naturenoon.com/schroedingers-cat-experiment-simple/ (https://naturenoon.com/schroedingers-cat-experiment-simple/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 10, 2022, 09:26:57 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 10, 2022, 08:56:36 AM


Attacking with Schrodinger's cat?

https://naturenoon.com/schroedingers-cat-experiment-simple/ (https://naturenoon.com/schroedingers-cat-experiment-simple/)

  Wikipedia goes into more detail:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat

  Note that Schoedinger is using the example to make fun of the Copenhagen interpretation and that "observed" even in the Copenhagen interpretation is the
moment the quantized function represents an interaction which is more or less right away in most environments ( though a single radioactive atom or a metastable
electron state in a very thin gas could fail to interact for quite a while -- but since the atom or the electron would do or not do observable A, you would know B (the state of the cat)
or so its seems to me).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 10, 2022, 10:02:30 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on August 09, 2022, 06:42:19 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2022, 05:49:27 PM
thats a lot of smoking

https://twitter.com/i/status/1557009861040373760

Simultaneous HE smoking


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZvMlJxXkAIi82D?format=jpg&name=360x360)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 10, 2022, 10:14:08 AM
Re Schroedinger's cat and quantum indeterminacy: another way that works, is that quantum states are always being omnisciently and omnipresently observed.  ^-^

Most of it though is just a quirk in calculated detectability: the formula to specify the position of an election, to give a basic example, excludes knowing the angular velocity of an electron (or something like that, I've forgotten the high school physics formula in detail but it made sense at the time), and vice versa. But that's just an inherent limitation in human descriptions (even mathematical ones) of the reality of what's happening, due to how energy functions at that level of reality: the electron fields aren't actually indeterminately real in position and velocity.

As a very rough analogy, it's like how we can only see, at most, three sides of a six-sided rectangular prism at a time, such as a military history book -- or the fluid of a cat in a box! (There's a famous award-winning paper from a few years ago, humorously using cats to illustrate the properties of a fluid.) But the other sides are still there, 'doing' their structural functions and interactions with other reality, even though we can only detect those sides indirectly by extended inferences -- unless we shift our method of perception around to directly detect those sides, whereupon we lose direct perception of the prior sides!

Or as another rough analogy, it's like how it's impossible to illustrate 3-D objects in a 2-D way without either smearing the distinct shapes into one shape, or else distinguishing them into what looks like completely separate shapes. Trying to calculate the position and velocity of an electron simultaneously ends up being a "2-D" method of describing a "3-D" reality, so to speak.

Once we get down to the atomic level, and its interactions upward at the molecular level and downward at the fundamental particle level, "rough analogies" are the best we can do for descriptions, even for math in a way. Math can be more particular at the Newtonian level (only-2 apples added to only-2 apples will always total only-4 applies, other things being equal), but our language for description still won't be. (And even the Newtonian level, including Newton himself, recognizes limits to mathematic description of things like curves. That's why calculus is really that super-annoying "limit theory" taught first before going to the easier cheat methods for resolving calculus equations.)

As Lewis used to say, we can make our language drier, but we can't make it less metaphorical. We can only surround the reality, so to speak, with analogies and try to trim off the false parts of the analogies for more accurate descriptions. But even that description of the process is necessarily metaphorical.  :coolsmiley:


(Note: I say "most of it" near the beginning, because once we get down to zero-point energy things get a lot weirder and more... suggestive, let's say.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 10, 2022, 10:14:54 AM
Quote from: Windigo on August 10, 2022, 10:02:30 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZvMlJxXkAIi82D?format=jpg&name=360x360)

Those things will kill you!  ^-^

(Now for Surgeon General warnings...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 10, 2022, 11:14:04 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 10, 2022, 10:14:08 AM
Re Schroedinger's cat and quantum indeterminacy: another way that works, is that quantum states are always being omnisciently and omnipresently observed.  ^-^

Most of it though is just a quirk in calculated detectability: the formula to specify the position of an election, to give a basic example, excludes knowing the angular velocity of an electron (or something like that, I've forgotten the high school physics formula in detail but it made sense at the time), and vice versa. But that's just an inherent limitation in human descriptions (even mathematical ones) of the reality of what's happening, due to how energy functions at that level of reality: the electron fields aren't actually indeterminately real in position and velocity.

As a very rough analogy, it's like how we can only see, at most, three sides of a six-sided rectangular prism at a time, such as a military history book -- or the fluid of a cat in a box! (There's a famous award-winning paper from a few years ago, humorously using cats to illustrate the properties of a fluid.) But the other sides are still there, 'doing' their structural functions and interactions with other reality, even though we can only detect those sides indirectly by extended inferences -- unless we shift our method of perception around to directly detect those sides, whereupon we lose direct perception of the prior sides!

Or as another rough analogy, it's like how it's impossible to illustrate 3-D objects in a 2-D way without either smearing the distinct shapes into one shape, or else distinguishing them into what looks like completely separate shapes. Trying to calculate the position and velocity of an electron simultaneously ends up being a "2-D" method of describing a "3-D" reality, so to speak.

Once we get down to the atomic level, and its interactions upward at the molecular level and downward at the fundamental particle level, "rough analogies" are the best we can do for descriptions, even for math in a way. Math can be more particular at the Newtonian level (only-2 apples added to only-2 apples will always total only-4 applies, other things being equal), but our language for description still won't be. (And even the Newtonian level, including Newton himself, recognizes limits to mathematic description of things like curves. That's why calculus is really that super-annoying "limit theory" taught first before going to the easier cheat methods for resolving calculus equations.)

As Lewis used to say, we can make our language drier, but we can't make it less metaphorical. We can only surround the reality, so to speak, with analogies and try to trim off the false parts of the analogies for more accurate descriptions. But even that description of the process is necessarily metaphorical.  :coolsmiley:


(Note: I say "most of it" near the beginning, because once we get down to zero-point energy things get a lot weirder and more... suggestive, let's say.)

  Hmmm...I don't know.  The wave character of things like the position and momentum of the electron means there really is a physical reason you can't pin down the position at the same time
as the momentum and vis-versa.  After all the Born interpretation of the Schoedinger eq. as specifying a probability density means there is something inherently chancy about where that electron is.
As Wikipedia notes:
The dispersive character of solutions of the Schrödinger equation has played an important role in rejecting Schrödinger's original interpretation, and accepting the Born rule.

And see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_packet
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 11:28:12 AM
hey Pratt, can you remotely try to stay roughly within the context of the thread?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 10, 2022, 11:55:35 AM
I think the Ruskies are into a new phase of the war I call, "real trouble"; now that the UAF has HARM missiles.



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 10, 2022, 01:13:48 PM
Phase II: Heavier Russian Losses
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 10, 2022, 01:17:07 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 10, 2022, 11:55:35 AM
I think the Ruskies are into a new phase of the war I call, "real trouble"; now that the UAF has HARM missiles.

  Yep.  And judging from what Star has brought in, all of the scenarios for what happened at the airport in Crimea are really disturbing for the Russians since it looks like the
HARMS either paved the way for a missile or special forces or distracted from partizans.  Moreover it looks like three big blasts occurred -- one maybe 5 minutes before the other
two and closer to the sea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 02:29:50 PM
do you like post strike imagery?  I know I do!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ0kXeEX0AA-SZJ?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ0kX0mXoAE1oO7?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 10, 2022, 02:33:33 PM
Mig-23s or Mig-27s?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 10, 2022, 02:33:54 PM
That strike in Crimea comes on the heels of a few great articles I read on the growing insurgency behind Russian occupied lines.

Partisans are providing extremely accurate coordinates for strikes to regular military units with HIMARS.

The Orcs have their hands full now with enemies in front and behind.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 02:34:29 PM
by my count thats 14 confirmed destroyed aircraft.
6 su-30 flankers
8 su-24 fencers
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 10, 2022, 04:38:56 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 11:28:12 AM
hey Pratt, can you remotely try to stay on roughly within the context of the thread?

Just waiting for more info to come in; like your damage photo!  :notworthy:

So.... three apparent impact craters (or maybe not 'impact' but close enough to the ground to punch hard dirt down in a ripple with some directionality), probably a fourth one at the repair(?) shed upper right, though I don't see ground deformation per se, yet (detonation yes, deformation not yet).

The detonation in the middle of the upper line didn't hit anything directly, but the blast wave appears to have seriously wrecked the aircraft in the revetments photo-south of it. Did the six on the go-line (bottom of photo) scramble? -- doesn't seem to be wreckage from them down there. The crater photo-nw of the go-line hit a fuel line maybe? If that's what wrecked the two jets north of it, I'm surprised the jets on the tarmac south of it didn't get whacked, too -- but I think we're looking at the low-light version of the usual oil and jet-engine marks on the tarmac along that line, not wreckage.

I count 7 definitely wrecked, plus another one maybe damaged enough (shifted a little on the photo, looks tilted off its wheels) to count as wrecked. Plus two repair(?) facilities. (Or would those be ammo sheds?) Bottom line shows no wreckage, but maybe they cleared those wrecks out super-fast? -- but the crafts on the right of the line wouldn't seem likely damaged from any of the four strikes I can see, and I don't see clear debris left over anywhere on that line. (The two tarmac slots next to the photo-sw detonation had nothing in them in the daylight shot.) So I wouldn't regard any of that line destroyed or even significantly damaged yet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 04:50:01 PM
everything on the bottom row was destroyed.
what limited footage from the ground post strike is from that area and everything is plastered.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1557093456740323330/pu/img/LWxiEmllghLg5-Mx.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 05:00:02 PM
the most likely system that was used:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/does-ukraine-have-a-stash-of-domestically-developed-ballistic-missiles
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 10, 2022, 10:05:03 PM
This is certainly a publicity win for the Ukrainians.  Do we know whether it had any material impact on the war, or just whether it's giving the Russians one more thing to worry about?

My understanding is that the Ukrainians were hoping to launch a counteroffensive in the direction of Kherson.  I gather not hearing much about that lately means either they haven't had much success or they haven't achieved anything worth bragging about?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 10, 2022, 10:15:30 PM
Wait... You mean it wasn't really caused by careless smoking?  ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 10:15:34 PM
let me put this spin on it.

a US combat aviation squadron is somewhere between 16 and 24 aircraft.  last I checked 3 squadrons make up a wing.
this attack rendered 4/5ths of whatever numbered naval aviation regiment a total loss.  1.  a russian regiment is equal to our wing and 2. a russian regiment is slightly larger then one of our baseline squadrons.  this strike has a serious impact on the air war in the south.
a very important subplot to the whole thing was the use of HARM missiles to take out S-300 air defense systems before the missile strike.
its.................  like an American plan  :dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 10:28:38 PM
and I cant deny that theres a huge part of my cold war upbringing that just wants to get involved and fuck these people up once and for all.
this whole war could almost be described as amateur bullshit.  I watched video today of Uk troops inspecting another abandoned tank and they found that all the ERA blocks were either filled with rubber inserts or empty.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 11, 2022, 05:38:21 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 10, 2022, 10:05:03 PM
This is certainly a publicity win for the Ukrainians.  Do we know whether it had any material impact on the war, or just whether it's giving the Russians one more thing to worry about?

My understanding is that the Ukrainians were hoping to launch a counteroffensive in the direction of Kherson.  I gather not hearing much about that lately means either they haven't had much success or they haven't achieved anything worth bragging about?

  From what I've seen, the Ukrainians are systematically blowing up all military targets in the Kherson region.  The Ukrainian attacks are much more focused on actual military targets of value.  Unlike Russian attacks which seem to consist of throwing HE everywhere.  They are bragging about it, but it kind of goes under the radar since they are knocking out real targets (ammo dumps and railroads for example) pretty
routinely and at a relatively high rate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 11, 2022, 06:22:15 AM
^Goes along with the Russian aims of obliterating Ukraine altogether...both civilian and military targets. Ukraine started out by trying to hold the Russians, and now shifted to destroying Russian military targets. But I wonder how long we have until this turns into a war of vengeance on the Ukrainian side too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 11, 2022, 07:49:47 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 04:50:01 PM
everything on the bottom row was destroyed.
what limited footage from the ground post strike is from that area and everything is plastered.

Ah, good!   :clap: They must have cleared them off the line pronto in the damage-assessment shot.

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2022, 10:28:38 PM
I watched video today of Uk troops inspecting another abandoned tank and they found that all the ERA blocks were either filled with rubber inserts or empty.

Good lord! -- no wonder the reactive armor hasn't been helping them as much as expected!

Of course, even when the blocks are filled with charges, the quality could be crap. Or even if the quality is good, the wiring might be crap. Or non-existent. It's hard to find the end of the rabbit-hole of "pretending to work while pretending to be paid"...  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 11, 2022, 07:52:37 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on August 11, 2022, 05:38:21 AM
From what I've seen, the Ukrainians are systematically blowing up all military targets in the Kherson region.  The Ukrainian attacks are much more focused on actual military targets of value.  Unlike Russian attacks which seem to consist of throwing HE everywhere.  They are bragging about it, but it kind of goes under the radar since they are knocking out real targets (ammo dumps and railroads for example) pretty routinely and at a relatively high rate.

I briefly saw an article yesterday snorfing at the Ukrainians for their Kherson drive supposedly stalling out of the gate, and I didn't have time to read it; but picking off the enemy forces "with an iron hand" beforehand is surely the way to prepare for a successful drive.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 11, 2022, 09:23:09 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 11, 2022, 07:52:37 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on August 11, 2022, 05:38:21 AM
From what I've seen, the Ukrainians are systematically blowing up all military targets in the Kherson region.  The Ukrainian attacks are much more focused on actual military targets of value.  Unlike Russian attacks which seem to consist of throwing HE everywhere.  They are bragging about it, but it kind of goes under the radar since they are knocking out real targets (ammo dumps and railroads for example) pretty routinely and at a relatively high rate.

I briefly saw an article yesterday snorfing at the Ukrainians for their Kherson drive supposedly stalling out of the gate, and I didn't have time to read it; but picking off the enemy forces "with an iron hand" beforehand is surely the way to prepare for a successful drive.

  I guess it doesn't matter if they "stall" but obliterate the Russian forces in the area.  Why go there if their partizans can give info resulting in devastatingly precise targetting?  They can just wait
while they get more and more firepower and increase their dominance of the area while they can target the Russians precisely and the Russians have no idea what's going on.
Possibly this is a new mode of warfare: destroy the enemy with precision weapons and then see what happens.  Do the Russians keep feeding trucks in (since apparently the railroads in the
area aren't functional)?  Or what?

  Once the Russians are dominated in the area, the Ukrainians can explore other options -- but why should they attack if they are effectively wiping out Russia's forces?  Why give up the advantage
of having a foe who has staked himself out to be slaughtered?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 11, 2022, 09:41:17 AM
there is a point where you have to attack while keeping in mind there are other areas of the front that are competing for the same resources.
theres also the pr aspect to it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 11, 2022, 12:04:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 11, 2022, 09:41:17 AM
there is a point where you have to attack while keeping in mind there are other areas of the front that are competing for the same resources.
theres also the pr aspect to it.

  Yeah,but look at in terms of what choices the Russians have: they can keep reinforcing the Kherson area where adding extra forces just adds to the targets without giving any benefits
and also depletes their push in the Donbas or they can let the Kherson area go while sort of beating on the Donbas.  It's a lose-lose situation and the Ukrainians are stressing this by saying
the Crimea is their target so the Russians have an even worse situation in that they have no choice but to dribble forces into the Kherson area at some minimal rate
to protect the Crimea thus gaining themselves nothing
but steadily accellerating losses and less and less pressure on the Donbas.  The overall loss to the Ukrainians is losing ground in the Donbas, but Russian forces continue to spiral downward.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 11, 2022, 02:08:38 PM
reports are now that the UkA disabled or damaged all four main bridges that used to supply Russian troops in Kherson.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 11, 2022, 03:07:12 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 11, 2022, 02:08:38 PM
reports are now that the UkA disabled or damaged all four main bridges that used to supply Russian troops in Kherson.

And I think we've seen the Ukraines show patience ... they'll starve them out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 11, 2022, 03:08:53 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ5YSiPWQAcOKaf?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 11, 2022, 03:23:15 PM
it'd be easier if you knew if they meant 'whole and complete' airplane.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 11, 2022, 03:45:46 PM
there is the 'none' option  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 11, 2022, 10:01:39 PM
That some pretty funny dark humor.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 11, 2022, 10:15:50 PM
have you met me?   :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 12, 2022, 02:48:22 AM
I laughed at this old meme template more than I should've, probably. Well played, @uamemesforces  :knuppel2:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ45AP_akAE6UMS?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 12, 2022, 03:51:42 AM
unfucking believable!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1557933881365610496
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 12, 2022, 05:48:44 AM
Meanwhile, Ukr Defense Ministry keeps winning the meme war, too...!

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1557621932429819907?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1557621932429819907%7Ctwgr%5Ee43f9383958e4cb0205c5e9e579517ea249e117f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fukraine-mocks-crying-russians-crimea-explosions-video-saky-air-base-1732826

....I have no idea how to make that address shorter. I am a twitard.  :'( Click for the video, tho?

QuoteUnless they want an unpleasantly hot summer break, we advise our valued russian guests not to visit Ukrainian Crimea.

Because no amount of sunscreen will protect them from the hazardous effects of smoking in unauthorised areas.
🎶Bananarama
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 12, 2022, 07:12:22 AM
Ben Wallace, UK's Defense Minister, thinks Russia's invasion is "starting to fail in many areas"...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-starting-to-fail-in-ukraine-war-as-heavy-losses-mount-wallace/ar-AA10zraL?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=56a14321e1a84961b8ff4519b2c91c88

WELCOME TO THE PARTY, PAL!  :D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 12, 2022, 07:29:31 AM
More detail from the before/after damage shots:

(https://i.insider.com/62f4c7ff5b790400198aef22?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp)

The larger photo shows a third destroyed building, south of the go-line.

I noticed that yesterday morning, Business Insider reported that bottom row also 'suspected' but not confirmed destroyed, so their source analyst agreed with me (perhaps mistakenly) that the damage photo didn't actually show craft there.

I think it's probable, however, that the two farthest left craft didn't escape debilitating damage (the new photo looks like it shows debris more clearly -- keeping in mind the farthest left two parking slots were empty before the strike, though there's a large burn-blotch between those slots now like an impact was made there), while the two farthest-right craft got away unharmed, with a continuum of damage probability dropping left-to-right between them.

https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-russia-jets-destroyed-in-surprise-attack-on-crimea-airfield-2022-8

The Tweet photo sent out by the Ukr Defense Ministry is perhaps inconclusive about which area the jet was struck in? (The question is whether that's on the tarmac go-line. I agree it does look like it should be...)

Insider provided an update 15 hours ago:

https://www.businessinsider.com/base-blasts-suggest-russian-positions-far-behind-front-lines-unsafe-2022-8?inline-endstory-related-recommendations=

Looks like the Ukrainian story is settling down to 'Ukrainian-made weapon system', which suggests a short-range missile system they've been working on, perhaps with partisan guidance.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 12, 2022, 09:32:49 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 12, 2022, 03:51:42 AM
unfucking believable!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1557933881365610496

Seagal is lower than whale cr$p IMHO.

Thankfully we have folks like chef Jose Andres, who set up his kitchen operation in Ukraine early in the war, and it now serves 40K hot meals daily and a ton of bagged meals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeXLIjGcgvw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeXLIjGcgvw)

The video has some notes on the state of the Ukrainian economy and the availability of food in the war zone as well as the nation as a whole.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on August 12, 2022, 07:10:36 PM
The Airbase attack has been the buzz of the Ukraine war this week.  Everyone is trying to figure out what weapons they used to get it done.  Also, 3 days before, dcs forums were buzzing with reports of Ukrainians using western harm anti radar missiles, as wreckage was found in Russian occupied territory.  Interesting as Suhkois can't carry harms, so they must have modified them to fire off in a auto pitbull mode.  Gota give it to the Ukrainians, they adapt, improvise and over come....it's why we love em.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 12, 2022, 07:54:04 PM
from 4 years ago:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/24111/northrop-grumman-shows-off-shipping-container-launched-anti-radiation-missile-concept
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on August 13, 2022, 01:52:09 PM
Nice, it's an even cheaper weapon system than the himars.  Only complaint is part of the way harms work, it's best to launch them from 30 to 40k altitude at Mach 1 or better to increase the range and energy of the missile.  But in Ukraines case, something like this might work.  Sneak the ground launched harms up to the front line and fire away.  Before the airbase strike, I noticed several reports of Russian Sam sites being destroyed across the front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 13, 2022, 09:24:59 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaE05RYWYAExi1h?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 13, 2022, 10:29:29 PM
Stalingrad 2, Electric Boogaloo.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 14, 2022, 12:01:42 AM
at this point nothing will convince me that in the 80's they wouldn't have gotten the living shit kicked out them.
there's honestly a weird part of me that can't let go of this fight needing to happen.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 14, 2022, 12:05:34 AM
people complained that Red Storm Rising was optimistic.
turns out it was the very very very worst case scenario.  <:-)
Frisbee's motherfucker!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 14, 2022, 11:32:02 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 13, 2022, 09:24:59 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaE05RYWYAExi1h?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)


I am guessing that Ukraine wins this one after a long bloody fight. The Russians will have to retreat to the other side of the Dnipro.

But then the Ukrainians are going to have the flip-side of the problem when they want to go beyond Kherson.

The Dnipro is a very substantial river. Here is a Google street view from 2017 looking across from the Kherson side. This location is about 1/4 mile from the Russian pontoon ferry called out on Star's map.

https://www.google.com/maps/@46.673051,32.7626711,3a,75y,168.7h,80.65t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipO1p-zVStYY5XU7FjePhtyvEBPTaZS_bXvFEpUk!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipO1p-zVStYY5XU7FjePhtyvEBPTaZS_bXvFEpUk%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya265.64667-ro0-fo100!7i6144!8i3072 (https://www.google.com/maps/@46.673051,32.7626711,3a,75y,168.7h,80.65t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipO1p-zVStYY5XU7FjePhtyvEBPTaZS_bXvFEpUk!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipO1p-zVStYY5XU7FjePhtyvEBPTaZS_bXvFEpUk%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya265.64667-ro0-fo100!7i6144!8i3072)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 14, 2022, 03:32:41 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 14, 2022, 11:32:02 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 13, 2022, 09:24:59 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaE05RYWYAExi1h?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)


I am guessing that Ukraine wins this one after a long bloody fight. The Russians will have to retreat to the other side of the Dnipro.

But then the Ukrainians are going to have the flip-side of the problem when they want to go beyond Kherson.

The Dnipro is a very substantial river. Here is a Google street view from 2017 looking across from the Kherson side. This location is about 1/4 mile from the Russian pontoon ferry called out on Star's map.


  On the other hand, the Ukrainians are on the other side of the river up north, so while Russia pours stuff into the killing ground on the Kherson-Crimea front, the Ukrainians could attack elsewhere.
In fact the information battle (with Zelinsky telling his generals not to talk about the attack on Kherson) suggests a Ukrainian attack in the center might be coming sooner than an attack on Kherson.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 14, 2022, 04:24:57 PM
it will be interesting to see how this whole war is treated in future wargames.
I see a lot of pasta rules happening.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on August 14, 2022, 07:43:23 PM
^ What you did, right there...

I saw it...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 14, 2022, 10:22:00 PM
I would hope this forum would get it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 15, 2022, 07:03:55 AM
After the pasta rule being highlighted on Big Bang Theory how could we not get it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 15, 2022, 07:23:39 AM
Now we just need to come up with some 'pasta rules' ahead of time for this one!

For example, I suggest a meme-war mechanic for bolstering morale and extra dribbles of supplies, to be applied every... three weeks? (This timeframe should be tracked and applied completely independently of the actual time-per-turn rate, of course.  >:D )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 15, 2022, 07:41:11 AM
Meanwhile, since we're now halfway through August, more-or-less, I'll post a reminder that last month an economic theory was going around, to the effect that Russia's economy would be even more of a disaster than it currently is, if its businesses hadn't decided a couple of years ago to start saving up 6 months of operating reserves instead of the normal 3 months, as a pandemic cushion.

Mid-August was the projected time we would see those reserves start running out (not all at once of course), leading to a massive shift in Russia's attitude toward the war, nominally toward de-escalation although depending on how crazy/desperate Putin and his team are things could start veering all kinds of wacky ways, such as civil war breaking out or a serious nuclear ultimatum. (Or both -- the crazy options weren't necessarily mutually exclusive.) (Well, 'crazier' options. ;) )

We'll see how things proceed from here.


Perhaps relatedly, various economy channels on YT have been starting countdown clocks to China's economy collapsing in less than a month for various reasons (like Sri Lanka's and now Pakistan's own economies crashing, which China is heavily leveraged into). Naturally this has more bearing on what they might do (or might be unable to do) regarding Taiwan; but it could also lead to interesting pressures on Putin, or deals with him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2022, 08:44:01 AM
russian state tv is already talking about the economic benefits of the natural resources theyve taken from the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2022, 08:46:38 AM
also at this weeks military show in moscow the russians are showing off their ultra advanced T-62.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 15, 2022, 08:48:13 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on August 15, 2022, 07:03:55 AM
After the pasta rule being highlighted on Big Bang Theory how could we not get it?

https://www.quartertothree.com/fp/2017/09/18/pasta-rule-campaign-north-africa-not-actually-thing/
https://kotaku.com/the-notorious-board-game-that-takes-1500-hours-to-compl-1818510912

As Berg explains, the rule wasn't even entirely factually accurate. "The reality is that the Italians cooked their pasta with the tomato sauce that came with the cans," he says.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 15, 2022, 10:07:50 AM
^ House rule.  :D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: greengiant on August 15, 2022, 10:31:34 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2022, 08:44:01 AM
russian state tv is already talking about the economic benefits of the natural resources theyve taken from the Ukraine.

Wow, after a long day and now being exhausted, I didn't think I'd be able to get this *(#$&#$ off about a single line of text. In a case of lovely irony, I hope a freakin bear eats his intestines while he's still conscious someday. Sorry, internet tough guys posts are lame but I just can't... families are dying and they are discussing economical benefits. I am so bloody naive to the world and how many terrible people there are out there... I honestly can't fathom how one could sleep soundly knowing the horror you've ordered your army to commit on a daily basis.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 15, 2022, 11:43:02 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 14, 2022, 04:24:57 PM
it will be interesting to see how this whole war is treated in future wargames.
I see a lot of pasta rules happening.

You know how much pasta shit is in Shadow Empire?

&^%$#@!  I don't give a shit if a council leader is rude to a peon, even if the snowflake is from a powerful family. If they are great at their job, I don't need to know - there is a two front war going on and the game brings me family feud??

I need an option that sets a condition like; "if it happens twice - shoot the dummy and replace them with their 2nd in command".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on August 15, 2022, 02:44:17 PM
Two things caught my attention in these past few posts.

Pasta & Shadow Empire. 

Shadow Empire is temporary but pasta, pasta is forever.   :smitten:


With or without meatballs...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2022, 04:04:15 PM
this is why the Ukraine will win!

Ukrainian fighters recreated a famous painting to thank volunteers for walkie-talkies))) also, Ukrainian men are beautiful.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaLswr_XgAASBJo?format=jpg&name=small)

fyi I just copy/pasted the original text. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 15, 2022, 05:07:39 PM
^Well I definitely did not expect to find that here.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2022, 05:07:59 PM
good thread on russian artillery usage.
its worth watching the videos and reading the linked articles.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1559013688958455813
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2022, 05:08:26 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 15, 2022, 05:07:39 PM
^Well I definitely did not expect to find that here.

thats not you on the right?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2022, 05:40:35 PM
Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said that the first flight of the Su-75 Checkmate has been postponed until 2024.

Im willing to put money on the fact that it will be much much later then that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2022, 07:27:16 PM
straight up Wolverines move here.  watch the upper part of the video.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1559268618864656388
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 15, 2022, 08:36:56 PM
If I could grow a lush beard like that guy my life would be very different.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 16, 2022, 08:41:10 AM
Lots of cigarette related "accidents" lately.

https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1559493254969688064

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaRu2OoWYAAqx6R?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2022, 09:43:30 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 15, 2022, 08:36:56 PM
If I could grow a lush beard like that guy my life would be very different.

because you would have been sex trafficked?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 16, 2022, 10:25:47 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2022, 07:27:16 PM
straight up Wolverines move here.  watch the upper part of the video.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1559268618864656388

They sure bolted. They didn't even wait for the BMP to stop rolling. Although it may be warranted. There appears to be a casualty in the group (right side)... that is pretty quick return fire...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2022, 02:05:14 PM
so the russians are holding another of their tank biathlons this week while they have their military trade show.
the venezuelan team missed all their shots.
the team from zimbabwe not only missed all their shots but also got lost on a clearly defined track and drove off into a field.
and it was either laos or syria that drove off the course and wrecked a water station.
russia continues to win the turret throwing competition.

edit:  it was iran that ran over the water station.  :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2022, 03:13:31 PM
and this recent quote from putin will age like milk:

Quote''Our weapons are years, and maybe decades ahead of their foreign analogues, and significantly surpass them in terms of tactical and technical characteristics''
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2022, 03:42:19 PM
so this got hit today, waiting on the after photos.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaSPOvAX0AAt03z?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 16, 2022, 04:28:57 PM
WTH?

All nicely lined up like that... you'd think they are trolling for a strafing run.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 16, 2022, 04:54:57 PM
^That's what I thought. It's like the Russians have never watched Star Wars or GI Joe cartoons, never mind taking their current situation seriously.

Either they are totally 100% deluded of their current reality or are really plumbing the depths of stupid.

Perhaps both?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 16, 2022, 05:09:26 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 16, 2022, 04:54:57 PM
^That's what I thought. It's like the Russians have never watched Star Wars or GI Joe cartoons, never mind taking their current situation seriously.
...

Or Tora, Tora, Tora 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 16, 2022, 05:28:37 PM
^YES!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 16, 2022, 09:58:04 PM
They do look pretty though like that, all perfectly in line. Maybe that's the idea. The Ukrainians might be too impressed to destroy them.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 17, 2022, 07:21:37 AM
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1559710631774781445/photo/1

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaUvWWFXkAMaZ86?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 17, 2022, 10:45:20 AM
I can't help but wonder if the Russians use these twitter map updates as their main means of intelligence gathering...   ::)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 17, 2022, 10:46:56 AM
who knows, I dont think theres much that can help them anyway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 17, 2022, 12:12:39 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 17, 2022, 10:46:56 AM
who knows, I dont think theres much that can help them anyway.

I wonder about Ukraine's offensive capacity, given the wests restrained supplying efforts. I would love nothing more than a complete victory for Ukraine, complete recapture of all it's territory, but given the resupply situation I can't help but think the west wants a static line. Fucking politics.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 17, 2022, 12:29:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2022, 03:13:31 PM
and this recent quote from putin will age like milk:

Quote''Our weapons are years, and maybe decades ahead of their foreign analogues, and significantly surpass them in terms of tactical and technical characteristics''

They are 100% stealth.  As in : no one has ever seen them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 17, 2022, 01:09:20 PM
3 point shot

https://twitter.com/i/status/1559924577492426760
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 17, 2022, 03:01:48 PM
well, seems not much happened to that airbase I posted about.  >:(

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/no-major-damage-seen-at-russian-airbase-in-crimea-after-reported-attack
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 17, 2022, 04:14:32 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaY3vh0WQAAEv3n?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 17, 2022, 05:52:44 PM
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/illia-ponomarenko-stop-whining-about-the-war-in-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 17, 2022, 08:44:05 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 17, 2022, 01:09:20 PM
3 point shot

https://twitter.com/i/status/1559924577492426760

I for one noticed the obligatory Death Star reference got hold of the original detonation footage somehow!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 18, 2022, 07:45:07 AM
At this point I have to wonder if Russia would be better off just going back to pike-and-shot rules...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/untrained-russian-troops-struggling-to-fit-tank-armor-causing-losses-uk/ar-AA10Nmiq
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2022, 04:08:15 PM
seems like a very busy night!
Explosions at munitions depot, Timonovo Belgorod
Explosions at Stary Oskol Airfield Belgorod
Explosions in Nova Kakhovka Kherson
Explosions near Belbek airport Crimea
Air defence activity near Kerch strait
Russian bases hit in Luhansk
Russian FSB base hit W Crimea
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2022, 05:25:40 PM
according to the russian mod this su-30 is merely napping, no damage at all.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FadBm7OXoAAEMmV?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 18, 2022, 07:15:28 PM
That will be a long nap.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 18, 2022, 07:15:49 PM
Could it be pining for the fjords?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2022, 07:36:35 PM
do I sense a Hitchhikers joke.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 18, 2022, 08:09:48 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2022, 07:36:35 PM
do I sense a Hitchhikers joke.
It's an ex SU-30.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2022, 08:56:12 PM
I knew it felt British.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on August 18, 2022, 10:28:05 PM
Really good thread.

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1560350883929620481?s=20&t=ZdaFQeSefcMzKkIx605EgQ



Groggy
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 19, 2022, 12:40:29 AM
Got to hand it to the Ukrainians, they know how to steal the initiative.

Rockets, partisans, spec ops deep strikes and drones...oh my!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-bases-are-blowing-up-all-around-ukraine-as-kyiv-s-rockets-and-drones-lash-out/ar-AA10OzyZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9b3f61e8913a4b42d3784cb1c662c657 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-bases-are-blowing-up-all-around-ukraine-as-kyiv-s-rockets-and-drones-lash-out/ar-AA10OzyZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9b3f61e8913a4b42d3784cb1c662c657)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 19, 2022, 07:29:46 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2022, 04:08:15 PM
seems like a very busy night!
Explosions at munitions depot, Timonovo Belgorod
Explosions at Stary Oskol Airfield Belgorod
Explosions in Nova Kakhovka Kherson
Explosions near Belbek airport Crimea
Air defence activity near Kerch strait
Russian bases hit in Luhansk
Russian FSB base hit W Crimea

  Well, at least the Russians have a new admiral for the Black Sea Fleet.  Meanwhile they are "defending" the big Z nuke facility (what's odd is that it would not have needed defending if they
had not attacked there in the first place...it's like "you made me do it so its your fault i'm eternally an idiot") this is from CNN:

Russian officials have said inspectors should travel to the plant via Russian territory, which Ukraine opposes. In addition, they have refused to withdraw troops from the facility, saying they are necessary to defend it against potential attacks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 19, 2022, 08:10:05 AM
So, it's pike-and-shot rules for sure! -- and big dirty-bombing maybe...  :buck2:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-may-resort-to-unconventional-warfare-after-losses-former-colonel/ar-AA10OEut?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=b01be786453f45039e07149d2ae4eb6f
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 19, 2022, 01:48:55 PM
Anonymous Brit declares half of Russia's Black Sea Naval Air Power poofed in that base attack we talked so much about last week:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/half-russias-black-sea-fleets-combat-jets-out-operation-western-official-2022-08-19/

The article comes with a new colorized and expanded before-after photo set.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 19, 2022, 02:37:42 PM
Tom Rogan at the Washington Examiner reports that his sources in Britain credit SAS & SIS teams on the ground for helping the Uks strike far beyond the front.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/guided-by-british-special-forces-ukraine-is-escalating-the-deep-battlespace-fight-against-russia/ar-AA10OKoS?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=50ab71c846d641d7b70c10ea03d72c9d


Meanwhile, the Washington Post got hold of some docs captured by the Ukrainians, and has dropped a super-chewy 6-part article (10 to 15 pages depending on formatting, I would guess!) on how the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB in Russian with English letters) dropped the ball hard and repeatedly in the leadup to the invasion -- and afterward:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-spies-misread-ukraine-and-misled-kremlin-as-war-loomed/ar-AA10P2xQ?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=50ab71c846d641d7b70c10ea03d72c9d
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 19, 2022, 05:07:21 PM
Ukrainian A-10s?

https://time.com/6207115/ukraine-train-fighter-pilots-russia/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 19, 2022, 05:08:42 PM
and HARMs on Mig-29s  <:-)

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-mig-29s-are-firing-agm-88-anti-radiation-missiles
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 19, 2022, 07:08:33 PM
did you know that ATACMS pods look just like the 6 round pods?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FajiQ-9WQAAm2MV?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 19, 2022, 07:17:15 PM
Nice

(https://en.defence-ua.com/media/contentimages/184629dd6206f6e8.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 19, 2022, 07:49:28 PM
ya, the USAF is like YES! we can finally get rid of these.
though if it happens I think it would be more of a post war rebuilding effort.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 19, 2022, 08:31:38 PM
Yeah it does not sound like it will happen soon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 19, 2022, 09:00:57 PM
or its a cover story and they're really being trained on F-16s.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 19, 2022, 09:09:20 PM
F-16s you say?

(https://www.defensehere.com/img/2021/06/f0feeed0-82d2-45f6-969f-c08ae7d09e31_scaled.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 19, 2022, 09:29:41 PM
offff!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1560729704671444992
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 20, 2022, 03:45:55 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 19, 2022, 09:29:41 PM
offff!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1560729704671444992

Russia is asking the 'Chain Smokers Anonymous' group to change their holiday destination next year.
Too many cigarette incidents in Crimea lately.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 20, 2022, 10:06:28 AM
Come on, guys.  Russia hasn't faced this kind of existential threat since the American-backed Nazi regime threatened Moscow in 1942!    :tickedoff:

Oh, wait...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 20, 2022, 11:44:12 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 20, 2022, 10:06:28 AM
Come on, guys.  Russia hasn't faced this kind of existential threat since the American-backed Nazi regime threatened Moscow in 1942!    :tickedoff:

Oh, wait...
The biggest existential threat to Russia is its current leaders.  It's like a Bowery Boys comede of errors.

One of those twitter feeds went into great lengths to show Russia has enough artillery amunition to last until next year but didn't address the replacement barrels issue at all(from another of those twitter feeds).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 21, 2022, 03:42:53 PM
Is it HIMARS o'clock?

- Yes


https://twitter.com/himarstime/status/1561432147864559616
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on August 21, 2022, 09:23:38 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on August 21, 2022, 03:42:53 PM
Is it HIMARS o'clock?

- Yes


https://twitter.com/himarstime/status/1561432147864559616

Best meme reboot ever!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 21, 2022, 10:00:35 PM
"In Putin's Russia, there's no Happy Hour. Because there is no happy hour".  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 07:38:18 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 19, 2022, 09:29:41 PM
offff!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1560729704671444992

Man, the comments in that twitter thread are epic! (...I mean, considering people just burned to death, hopefully killed by shock first.)

"Escape pod get you this far! Figure out landing on own, comrade."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 07:43:34 AM
It would be even more embarrassing if that was caused by a drone plus lax security protocols:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-drones-are-carpet-bombing-the-russians/ar-AA10VML6?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e19dc8c3c1bb4fbbb77d775332396d35

Granted, the Russians are trying to fight back, but step one would seem to be: keep hatches closed; deploy shotguns.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 07:50:01 AM
More seriously, the false flag inciting incidents might or might not be ratcheting up:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-warns-of-russian-escalation-as-putin-ally-s-daughter-is-killed/ar-AA10TKTQ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e19dc8c3c1bb4fbbb77d775332396d35

(A relatively lengthy article, not mostly about Ms. Dugin being assassinated.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 07:54:15 AM
WaPo publishes excerpts from a Russian paratrooper's 140ish page journal. It's about like you'd expect. ;)

Note that there may be a paywall here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/21/ukraine-russian-soldier-diary/

Business Insider has some samples, no apparent paywall: https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-paratrooper-detailed-account-of-war-in-ukraine-describes-chaos-2022-8
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 07:58:24 AM
HuffyPo reports that parts of a Luhansk Russian military unit are refusing to fight any farther, specifically beyond Luhansk (like in Donetsk), now that the mission of securing (taking) all of Luhansk's claimed territory has been accomplished.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/soldiers-refuse-to-fight-for-russia-ukraine-invasion_uk_63033f8ae4b0f7df9bb1c060
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 22, 2022, 08:52:25 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 07:50:01 AM
More seriously, the false flag inciting incidents might or might not be ratcheting up:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-warns-of-russian-escalation-as-putin-ally-s-daughter-is-killed/ar-AA10TKTQ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e19dc8c3c1bb4fbbb77d775332396d35

(A relatively lengthy article, not mostly about Ms. Dugin being assassinated.)

A shadowy, not before heard from anti-Putin group calling themselves "The Nationalist Republican Army" is taking responsibility.

Who knows if these guys are real. They may just be small group of political hacks opportunistically taking responsibility. The bomb might be the work of an internal power struggle, or just plain old gangster style catching up on old grievances.

But I also think 'internal power struggle' maybe not so much. Defenestration (word of the day...:) ), poison underwear and door handles are more the MO of the guys in power. Bombs have been just too messy for these guys.

I find it hard to believe that the Ukrainians did it just because they would not want to give Putin an excuse to run his own assassination plots, or even drop a nuke on Zelensky's house. But I guess I could see the Ukrainians giving some "Russian Partisans" a little help. As in; 'I know I left that plastic explosive around here somewhere...but it must have fallen off the back of the truck....oh well.'

On the other hand, if all this ends as many of us have said, with Putin going away, then a "Nationalistic Republican Army" is one way it happens. 

From Newsweek:

"Former Russian state deputy Ilya Ponomarev, in an appearance on his Russian-language opposition TV channel "Utro Fevralya" in Kyiv, alleged that Dugina, 30, was killed by Russian partisans from the NRA. He said both Dugin and his daughter were targets. ....

According to Ponomarev, the anti-Putin group, which had been unknown before Dugina's death, authorized him to issue their "manifesto" via his Telegram channel "Rospartisan." The group describes itself as consisting of Russian activists, military members, politicians who are "now fighters and partisans." ....

"We have established contact with NRA fighters via our Rospartisan [Telegram] channel, which covers the rising tide of resistance in Russia. Today the NRA fighters authorized me to read their manifesto," he said, ...

The NRA declared Putin "a usurper of power and a war criminal who amended the Constitution, unleashed a fratricidal war between the Slavic peoples and sent Russian soldiers to certain and senseless death." It also called officials of the Russian government and regional administrations as well as security officials "accomplices of the usurper.""/i]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-is-russia-s-anti-putin-national-republican-army/ar-AA10VA7A?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a858bc323cd44464e95e1f0816a40453 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-is-russia-s-anti-putin-national-republican-army/ar-AA10VA7A?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a858bc323cd44464e95e1f0816a40453)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 22, 2022, 09:20:17 AM
Poison underwear??  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 22, 2022, 09:22:55 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 22, 2022, 09:20:17 AM
Poison underwear??  :o

Yep, it is a thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/navalny-russian-agent-novichok-death-plot (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/navalny-russian-agent-novichok-death-plot)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 09:25:46 AM
Interesting. If it's a false flag op designed to sacrifice Dugin's daughter to goose support against Ukraine, per se (which is how Russia's government is marketing the attack, of course), it's a subtly unexpected one: Ukraine AND the partisan/terrorist group disavow Ukraine having any knowledge or action of the attack, which Ukraine kind of condemns. ("We don't do that kind of thing; we aren't terrorists.")

From a pragmatic standpoint, at least symbolically (pragmatic symbolism, heh), going after the author of Russia's current "national socialism" ideology does... feel... a lot like an internal civil war move.

Possibly connected to the upcoming expected catastrophic collapse of Russia's industries and key businesses, due to their 6-month reserves running out...? Should be starting about now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 22, 2022, 09:28:15 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 22, 2022, 08:52:25 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 07:50:01 AM
More seriously, the false flag inciting incidents might or might not be ratcheting up:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-warns-of-russian-escalation-as-putin-ally-s-daughter-is-killed/ar-AA10TKTQ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e19dc8c3c1bb4fbbb77d775332396d35

(A relatively lengthy article, not mostly about Ms. Dugin being assassinated.)

A shadowy, not before heard from anti-Putin group calling themselves "The Nationalist Republican Army" is taking responsibility.

Who knows if these guys are real. They may just be small group of political hacks opportunistically taking responsibility. The bomb might be the work of an internal power struggle, or just plain old gangster style catching up on old grievances.

But I also think 'internal power struggle' maybe not so much. Defenestration (word of the day...:) ), poison underwear and door handles are more the MO of the guys in power. Bombs have been just too messy for these guys.

I find it hard to believe that the Ukrainians did it just because they would not want to give Putin an excuse to run his own assassination plots, or even drop a nuke on Zelensky's house. But I guess I could see the Ukrainians giving some "Russian Partisans" a little help. As in; 'I know I left that plastic explosive around here somewhere...but it must have fallen off the back of the truck....oh well.'

On the other hand, if all this ends as many of us have said, with Putin going away, then a "Nationalistic Republican Army" is one way it happens. 

From Newsweek:

"Former Russian state deputy Ilya Ponomarev, in an appearance on his Russian-language opposition TV channel "Utro Fevralya" in Kyiv, alleged that Dugina, 30, was killed by Russian partisans from the NRA. He said both Dugin and his daughter were targets. ....

According to Ponomarev, the anti-Putin group, which had been unknown before Dugina's death, authorized him to issue their "manifesto" via his Telegram channel "Rospartisan." The group describes itself as consisting of Russian activists, military members, politicians who are "now fighters and partisans." ....

"We have established contact with NRA fighters via our Rospartisan [Telegram] channel, which covers the rising tide of resistance in Russia. Today the NRA fighters authorized me to read their manifesto," he said, ...

The NRA declared Putin "a usurper of power and a war criminal who amended the Constitution, unleashed a fratricidal war between the Slavic peoples and sent Russian soldiers to certain and senseless death." It also called officials of the Russian government and regional administrations as well as security officials "accomplices of the usurper.""/i]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-is-russia-s-anti-putin-national-republican-army/ar-AA10VA7A?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a858bc323cd44464e95e1f0816a40453 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-is-russia-s-anti-putin-national-republican-army/ar-AA10VA7A?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a858bc323cd44464e95e1f0816a40453)

  Yeah, this is pretty hard to get a handle on.  There is some kind of "resistance" in Russia, but there seems to be no way for anyone to guess at its actual nature.  I suspect (with no real evidence)
its one faction -- probably in the army -- that would like to have more influence on policy so why not blow up some of Putin's cronies or their daughters?  It would be easy for them
to blame the NRA just as it is easy for the Putin crew to blame the Ukrainians.  I see no obvious way to get to the bottom of the reality behind the "resistance" in Russia.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 22, 2022, 09:59:56 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 09:25:46 AM
Interesting. If it's a false flag op designed to sacrifice Dugin's daughter to goose support against Ukraine, per se (which is how Russia's government is marketing the attack, of course), it's a subtly unexpected one: Ukraine AND the partisan/terrorist group disavow Ukraine having any knowledge or action of the attack, which Ukraine kind of condemns. ("We don't do that kind of thing; we aren't terrorists.")

From a pragmatic standpoint, at least symbolically (pragmatic symbolism, heh), going after the author of Russia's current "national socialism" ideology does... feel... a lot like an internal civil war move.

Possibly connected to the upcoming expected catastrophic collapse of Russia's industries and key businesses, due to their 6-month reserves running out...? Should be starting about now.

I have no way of knowing of course, but I just think a political bombing in Moscow makes Putin look weak...and therefore a false flag to blame the Ukrainians is not something he would have chosen. Unless of course he wants to start going after Zelensky personally, or to use the bombing as a pretense to drop a few nukes.

As far as sacrificing his buddy's daughter? I don't think so. Not because Putin would care for her, but because it kind of breaks gangster rules (and in my simplistic way, I've always seen Russia as what it would be like if the mafia ruled a country). By that I mean, Dugina was one of his captain's daughters, and killing her would cause a break with Dugin. 

Still, pretty much everything the Russians have said has been a lie. So on that evidence alone, I think we can guess that it wasn't the Ukrainians.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 10:14:34 AM
It's been literally gangster rule since the Red October, so that analytical framework makes as much sense as anything else to go on!

Having said that, it would only cause a rift with Dugin if Dugin knew who really did it. Would he, though? ....surely he'd be suspicious in any case, and for him suspicions might be enough? (Or, was Dugin starting to edge toward coup-ville and this was a warning shot?) Does literally ANYONE know why it happened at this point?? In a government that has lived by lies for so long, so endemically, so thoroughly permeated in the governmental levels themselves (for their own self-protection and competition for power), too much truth may have been sacrificed for power for any possibility of reality to be distinguished anymore. Except the reality of another death.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2022, 10:49:16 AM
it took years in the making to happen but Pratt finally posted a short, clear and concise post about something!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 22, 2022, 11:14:25 AM
OPSEC rule number 127: "Don't let tourists post pictures of your air defenses on social media."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/russian-vacationers-inadvertently-expose-air-defenses-research-suggests/ar-AA10VPPI?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a3c4f8a2d3344df090d4a93e4f08a72b (https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/russian-vacationers-inadvertently-expose-air-defenses-research-suggests/ar-AA10VPPI?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a3c4f8a2d3344df090d4a93e4f08a72b)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 22, 2022, 11:17:58 AM
Another timeless image

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fas_777WAAEQaaU?format=jpg&name=360x360)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 22, 2022, 10:09:37 PM
The vehicle in that image is a massively overweight huge-tubed thing with giant spare tires. And the other one is an Air-Defense System.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on August 22, 2022, 10:28:17 PM
VERY much doubt this was Ukraine.

The thing is Dugin is a threat to Putin as far as his ideology would justify a mass mobilization of Russians and an outright commitment to the destruction of Ukraine. This would be a dangerous path for Putin to follow if his sole interest is preserving power. Seems like an internal struggle.

From the Sydney Morning Herald:

"Some Russian opposition activists have speculated that the murder may have been orchestrated by forces inside Russia keen to discourage ultra-nationalists like Dugin from criticising the Kremlin for being, in their eyes, too soft on Ukraine. The killing could serve as a pretext for another crackdown on people regarded as internal enemies, they said."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on August 22, 2022, 10:40:43 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 22, 2022, 11:17:58 AM
Another timeless image

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fas_777WAAEQaaU?format=jpg&name=360x360)

The Russian kit problems don't seem to be improving.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 23, 2022, 02:21:33 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 22, 2022, 10:09:37 PM
The vehicle in that image is a massively overweight huge-tubed thing with giant spare tires. And the other one is an Air-Defense System.
You forgot badly burnt.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 23, 2022, 08:37:14 AM
Quote from: GroggyGrognard on August 22, 2022, 10:28:17 PM
VERY much doubt this was Ukraine.

The thing is Dugin is a threat to Putin as far as his ideology would justify a mass mobilization of Russians and an outright commitment to the destruction of Ukraine. This would be a dangerous path for Putin to follow if his sole interest is preserving power. Seems like an internal struggle.

From the Sydney Morning Herald:

"Some Russian opposition activists have speculated that the murder may have been orchestrated by forces inside Russia keen to discourage ultra-nationalists like Dugin from criticising the Kremlin for being, in their eyes, too soft on Ukraine. The killing could serve as a pretext for another crackdown on people regarded as internal enemies, they said."

  In a Scooby-do episode, Dugin would have blown up his own daughter.  After all he did get out of the vehicle that was blown up just before it got blown up.  "Sherriff Dugin!  It was you all along
in the Grubby Ghost Suit!"  His quotes about her and her utterances sound so ludicrous as to make you wonder if she said something like "Dad, maybe we could do something else?"  So he blew her up
before she could mess up his message. Rutrow!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 23, 2022, 10:05:37 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 22, 2022, 11:17:58 AM
Another timeless image

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fas_777WAAEQaaU?format=jpg&name=360x360)

The Ukrainian army tweeted yesterday :  'Maybe we are too strict with Russian tourists... Sometimes they can be very helpful, like this man taking pictures of Russian air defense positions near Yevpatoria, in occupied Crimea. Thank you and keep up the good work!"

https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20220823_91999826
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 23, 2022, 12:24:39 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2022, 10:49:16 AM
it took years in the making to happen but Pratt finally posted a short, clear and concise post about something!

I could have tried to
make the post a haiku, but:
that's so last decade.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 23, 2022, 12:48:12 PM
Janusz Bugajski, an analyst at the Jamestown Foundation, posts up a short analysis of the three likely options for Ms. Dugina's removal, over at the Washington Examiner (via MSN):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-internal-shadow-war-intensifies/ar-AA10WvMM?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=29ad6cae5b5447e1aa50c976561e4d7c

QuoteMoreover, attempts at full mobilization to expand the war may have the reverse effect by intensifying resistance against the regime. The worst news for the Kremlin would be a combination of all three threats — Ukrainian, internal, and systemic — in the midst of accelerating economic decline and escalating military losses.

At this point, I kind of want Putin to go for full mobilization: he only dreams he's had logistic and economic troubles so far! Going full mobilization would wreck the nation exponentially faster -- and put weapons in the hands of a bunch of people who might not want Putin and his cronies in charge anymore.


WaPo has a much longer article on the assassination and its blowback(s) today: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/22/russia-putin-bomb-cheerleaders-fear/

QuoteThe agency posted video of the arrest of six men {who claimed Ukraine wanted them to assassinate an official asap}, one shown with bound hands, who stated they had orders from Ukraine to assassinate Solovyov "as soon as possible." In the apartment where the FSB said the arrests took place, the video showed a photo of Adolf Hitler, neo-Nazi literature, a red T-shirt with a swastika, guns, a blonde wig and three Sims DVDs. It caused waves on Russian state-owned television but was mocked by global observers as looking as if the alleged plot had been staged.

So... will that tank or surge the sale of the Sims series of games? Or even make those games relevant again??  >:D

A little more seriously, when I read that paragraph I heard the famous line from Minority Report: "We used to call this an orgy of evidence. You know how many orgies I had as a homicide cop?"

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 23, 2022, 02:50:54 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 23, 2022, 12:24:39 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2022, 10:49:16 AM
it took years in the making to happen but Pratt finally posted a short, clear and concise post about something!

I could have tried to
make the post a haiku, but:
that's so last decade.

Well...Turkey seems to be moving steadily into position as a mediator:



Turkey's Erdogan says return of Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law
From CNN's Isil Sariyuce in Istanbul and Hamdi Alkhshali in Atlanta

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday reiterated Turkey's position that Ankara supports Ukraine's territorial integrity and rejects Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, according to the state-run Anadolu agency.

Erdogan said in a video message to the Second Crimea Platform Summit in Kyiv that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine.

"The return of Crimea to Ukraine, of which it is an inseparable part, is essentially a requirement of international law," Erdogan said

Erdogan said Ankara will continue to support the Crimean Platform, which was established to resolve the Crimean issue through peaceful means.

"Turkiye does not recognize the annexation of Crimea and has been openly stating since the first day that this step is illegitimate and illegal. This is a principled stance that has not only legal but also moral foundations," he said.
Erdogan added that protecting Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and political unity is "critical," not only for regional but also for global security and stability.

"Ensuring the safety and well-being of our Crimean Tatar compatriots is also among Turkiye's priorities," he said.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 23, 2022, 03:21:09 PM
What's Erdogan's position on the DonBas?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 23, 2022, 03:32:17 PM
^Also, the last line of Turkey's statement makes me shudder a little bit. If Turkey feels their Crimean Tatar compatriots are not safe, will they invade?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2022, 04:27:19 PM
First we had to deal with "Kharkiv" then we were forced to say "Kyiv". Now we have to call it "Turkiye"?  What is going to happen next? Cats and dogs sleeping together?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 23, 2022, 04:32:38 PM
Sleeping together?? Jesus. I won't let them get as far as living together  :nerd:

(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/TepidSelfassuredIncatern-size_restricted.gif)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 23, 2022, 04:55:14 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2022, 04:27:19 PM
First we had to deal with "Kharkiv" then we were forced to say "Kyiv". Now we have to call it "Turkiye"?  What is going to happen next? Cats and dogs sleeping together?

we're far past that already.

(https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5584ce82e4b0b2b947ec0bb4/1475954742292-341B8KDXM202IHH7WLKF/dog-and-cat-sleeping-together.jpg?format=2500w)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 23, 2022, 06:16:24 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 23, 2022, 03:21:09 PM
What's Erdogan's position on the DonBas?

I guess if "territorial integrity" includes all of Ukraine's territory, then he would like to see the Russians leave all Ukrainian territory.  The Russians haven't even taken all the Donbas and they may
never take all the Donbas before they car-bomb themselves into oblivion.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 23, 2022, 06:17:48 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2022, 04:27:19 PM
First we had to deal with "Kharkiv" then we were forced to say "Kyiv". Now we have to call it "Turkiye"?  What is going to happen next? Cats and dogs sleeping together?

  Don't you mean catiyes and Turkiyes?  Oh and doggieyes!  Rutrow Shaggy!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 23, 2022, 09:44:15 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 23, 2022, 03:32:17 PM
^Also, the last line of Turkey's statement makes me shudder a little bit. If Turkey feels their Crimean Tatar compatriots are not safe, will they invade?

...well, at this point Russia may be weaker than Turkey, so I guess it wouldn't count as two Great Powers going to war... World War Not-One? Not-Won?

Aw, heck with it: from a purely academic standpoint of 'what in the actual what-ery', I'd like to see that matchup! Maybe if the Turks take Moscow right before sunrise, Muslim nations around the world will add a second star to their Constantinople-memorial flag designs.  :)) Then all they'd need is First Rome to win the trifecta!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 24, 2022, 03:32:41 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 22, 2022, 09:59:56 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 09:25:46 AM
Interesting. If it's a false flag op designed to sacrifice Dugin's daughter to goose support against Ukraine, per se (which is how Russia's government is marketing the attack, of course), it's a subtly unexpected one: Ukraine AND the partisan/terrorist group disavow Ukraine having any knowledge or action of the attack, which Ukraine kind of condemns. ("We don't do that kind of thing; we aren't terrorists.")

From a pragmatic standpoint, at least symbolically (pragmatic symbolism, heh), going after the author of Russia's current "national socialism" ideology does... feel... a lot like an internal civil war move.

Possibly connected to the upcoming expected catastrophic collapse of Russia's industries and key businesses, due to their 6-month reserves running out...? Should be starting about now.

I have no way of knowing of course, but I just think a political bombing in Moscow makes Putin look weak...and therefore a false flag to blame the Ukrainians is not something he would have chosen. Unless of course he wants to start going after Zelensky personally, or to use the bombing as a pretense to drop a few nukes.

As far as sacrificing his buddy's daughter? I don't think so. Not because Putin would care for her, but because it kind of breaks gangster rules (and in my simplistic way, I've always seen Russia as what it would be like if the mafia ruled a country). By that I mean, Dugina was one of his captain's daughters, and killing her would cause a break with Dugin. 

Still, pretty much everything the Russians have said has been a lie. So on that evidence alone, I think we can guess that it wasn't the Ukrainians.


.@holodmedia counts the days it took to name Daria Dugina's killer vs. the days spent looking for the people who ordered the assassinations of politician Boris Nemtsov, human rights activist Natalia Estemirova, and journalism Anna Politkovskaya.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaxKjgcX0AEFUck?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 24, 2022, 06:28:02 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 23, 2022, 09:44:15 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 23, 2022, 03:32:17 PM
^Also, the last line of Turkey's statement makes me shudder a little bit. If Turkey feels their Crimean Tatar compatriots are not safe, will they invade?

...well, at this point Russia may be weaker than Turkey, so I guess it wouldn't count as two Great Powers going to war... World War Not-One? Not-Won?

Aw, heck with it: from a purely academic standpoint of 'what in the actual what-ery', I'd like to see that matchup! Maybe if the Turks take Moscow right before sunrise, Muslim nations around the world will add a second star to their Constantinople-memorial flag designs.  :)) Then all they'd need is First Rome to win the trifecta!

  And this is weird:

Belarus President wishes Ukraine "a peaceful sky" on Independence Day
From CNN's Tim Lister

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Wednesday issued a message congratulating the people of Ukraine on their Independence Day.

"I am convinced that today's contradictions will not be able to destroy the centuries-old foundation of sincere good-neighborly relations between the peoples of the two countries," Lukashenko said in a message on the presidential website. "Belarus will continue to stand for the preservation of harmony, the development of friendly mutually respectful contacts at all levels."
Lukashenko wished the Ukrainians "a peaceful sky, tolerance, courage, strength and success in restoring a decent life."

Some context: Belarus is an ally of Russia and the country was used as a launch point for the invasion of Ukraine in February. The country is host to a wide variety of Russian weaponry and Ukrainian officials have reported an increase in the deployment of Russian missiles at an airbase in Belarus in recent weeks.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 24, 2022, 08:16:55 AM
Reading that message in context, it sounds like a taunt or veiled threat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 24, 2022, 08:37:31 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 24, 2022, 08:16:55 AM
Reading that message in context, it sounds like a taunt or veiled threat.

  Something like that or maybe something even stranger: they may know in Belarus that things are shifting in Moscow or maybe its just a bureaucratic foul-up of some kind (as in every year
we send out a nice message...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 24, 2022, 09:07:19 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on August 24, 2022, 08:37:31 AM
they may know in Belarus that things are shifting in Moscow or maybe its just a bureaucratic foul-up of some kind (as in every year we send out a nice message...)

I suspect they think Moscow is falling and they'd better make nice as mutually abused satellite states or whatever. (Which has a real element of truth to it.)

But Russians (broadly speaking 'White Russia' included) can be very odd at propaganda. Christmas Day 1940, Stalin sent Hitler a personal Merry Christmas wish on the front page of Pravda (since they were 'friends' and trade partners at the time) -- right above another front-page Pravda propaganda editorial waxing rhapsodically about the pornographic spectacle of capitalist nations (including the Nazis, whom elsewhere they also praised in the same issue as the socialist workers' heroes of the revolution) tearing each other apart like jackals on a heap of corpses.


It might sound weird that they would call that a 'pornographic' spectacle -- and it is! -- but in context, it fits the militant Marxist ideology which Stalin (and Lenin before him) had been pretty constantly painting, of a second world war being necessary to weaken Soviet opponents so that they could launch the final revolutionary world war and bring the peace and happiness of the workers' paradise to all nations on Earth, inducting them (by conquest of course) as Soviet Republics. So the pleasure at anticipating this result finally coming to fruition should be intense, if you're a good comrade communist.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 24, 2022, 10:21:14 AM
Or like Russia, they are full of shit and lying their asses off with their useless platitudes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 24, 2022, 11:11:58 AM
That's the short version. ;)

Hard to tell real diplomacy from fake diplomacy in Soviet Eastern Europe.

For that matter, it could be Schrodinger's diplomacy! -- simultaneously real and unreal, to be settled upon perception later.  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on August 24, 2022, 12:41:02 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on August 24, 2022, 03:32:41 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 22, 2022, 09:59:56 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 22, 2022, 09:25:46 AM
Interesting. If it's a false flag op designed to sacrifice Dugin's daughter to goose support against Ukraine, per se (which is how Russia's government is marketing the attack, of course), it's a subtly unexpected one: Ukraine AND the partisan/terrorist group disavow Ukraine having any knowledge or action of the attack, which Ukraine kind of condemns. ("We don't do that kind of thing; we aren't terrorists.")

From a pragmatic standpoint, at least symbolically (pragmatic symbolism, heh), going after the author of Russia's current "national socialism" ideology does... feel... a lot like an internal civil war move.

Possibly connected to the upcoming expected catastrophic collapse of Russia's industries and key businesses, due to their 6-month reserves running out...? Should be starting about now.

I have no way of knowing of course, but I just think a political bombing in Moscow makes Putin look weak...and therefore a false flag to blame the Ukrainians is not something he would have chosen. Unless of course he wants to start going after Zelensky personally, or to use the bombing as a pretense to drop a few nukes.

As far as sacrificing his buddy's daughter? I don't think so. Not because Putin would care for her, but because it kind of breaks gangster rules (and in my simplistic way, I've always seen Russia as what it would be like if the mafia ruled a country). By that I mean, Dugina was one of his captain's daughters, and killing her would cause a break with Dugin. 

Still, pretty much everything the Russians have said has been a lie. So on that evidence alone, I think we can guess that it wasn't the Ukrainians.


.@holodmedia counts the days it took to name Daria Dugina's killer vs. the days spent looking for the people who ordered the assassinations of politician Boris Nemtsov, human rights activist Natalia Estemirova, and journalism Anna Politkovskaya.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaxKjgcX0AEFUck?format=jpg&name=small)

Dude it's funny Nemtsov came up, It's one of my favorite weapons to use on russian nat trolls I come across in DCS servers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on August 24, 2022, 10:08:07 PM
From a twitter thread by Sarah Kendzior:

"Dugin and Dugina have long been mascots of Russian genocidal imperialism. Dugin's reputation as "Putin's brain" is overstated. He is more instrumental as an international face of fascism than he is as a direct influence on the Kremlin. Dugin and Putin are both products of a long history of Russian genocidal imperialism, and that culture will outlive them. They're equivalent to the violent neo-confederates of the US, clinging to fascist ambitions and marketing them with nostalgia for a bygone age. Dugin and Dugina called Ukrainians subhumans. Does that mean that Ukrainians killed her? No. Their belief is unfortunately common and wouldn't have motivated Ukraine to make such an enormous move. So who did it? It's not clear. There are a lot of suspects, among them the FSB. Russian state media had a Mark Burnett style propaganda production ready to air right after Dugina's death. They immediately blamed Ukraine for the murder and are using it as yet another pretext for atrocities in Ukraine that they would have carried out anyway. Russia is desperate for more cannon fodder. Morale is low among Russian soldiers. This is bad news for the Kremlin, and it's possible the Russian government sought to shut up Dugin, who is an extremist frustrated over the weak war effort and calling for mass mobilization. Dugin was reportedly complaining loudly about the failures of the FSB in Ukraine. In early 2022, the FSB gave Putin false intelligence that Ukraine would fall in a matter of days. Both Putin and Dugin saw the fall of the USSR as the great tragedy of their lifetimes. Dugin's 1997 book laid out a playbook for imperial conquest that has to some degree been followed by the Kremlin: invasion of former USSR republics, shattering of Western alliances, etc. The Kremlin was not literally following Dugin's dictates, but employing commonsense strategies on how to rebuild an empire that imploded in their lifetimes. Dugin was not their strategist but part of the same rancid Russian colonialist swamp. They're not anomalies."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 24, 2022, 10:28:35 PM
I so hate their soviet culture.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 25, 2022, 02:51:56 AM
It would have been very different if Yeltsin's protege, Nemtsov, had replaced him instead of Putin.  Nemtsov was an economic reformer well before 1989 and was even well respected in Chechnya.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 25, 2022, 06:04:08 AM
Russia is clearly now the basket case country of the 21st century, much like Germany was for the first half of the 20th...except worse because of their nuclear stockpile with a frightening lack of control or oversight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 25, 2022, 07:47:05 AM
Quote from: GroggyGrognard on August 24, 2022, 10:08:07 PM
From a twitter thread by Sarah Kendzior:

"{snip}Russian state media had a Mark Burnett style propaganda production ready to air right after Dugina's death."

WOW! -- so, do they have propaganda productions ready to go for pretty much anyone medium-high profile (occasionally updated I suppose)?? Or just for some people like the Dugins? I guess it's like having a eulogy and funeral service ready to go.

I doesn't have to look suspicious, but of course this is Russia where one of the many mottos is: "Be important: look suspicious!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 25, 2022, 08:12:43 AM
Isn't it the opposite?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on August 25, 2022, 08:53:27 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 25, 2022, 08:12:43 AM
Isn't it the opposite?

"Be suspicious: look important!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 25, 2022, 09:07:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 24, 2022, 10:28:35 PM
I so hate their soviet culture.

I think the only "good" thing about Soviet culture was the 'subversive' black humor.

I once attended a lecture that was basically an hour-long recitation of Soviet jokes.

I thought they were pretty funny in their own twisted Orwellian fashion.

I can only remember two of those however...

-"Our USSR constitution is much better than the US constitution. Ours is brand new and has never been used."

-"How do they keep Lenin's body looking so good in his mausoleum?  It is easy. Every ten years there is a Lenin look-alike contest."

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 25, 2022, 09:11:56 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 25, 2022, 09:07:54 AM
-"How do they keep Lenin's body looking so good in his mausoleum?  It is easy. Every ten years there is a Lenin look-alike contest."

I would 100% believe that is true!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 25, 2022, 09:57:14 AM
Rep. Mike Waltz R-Fl. Member of the Armed Services Committee was on FOX News last night, part of a group that just returned from Ukraine. He said Zelensky was VERY worried that if the battle lines solidify into winter, that the Russians will claim victory, annex all the land they control, and wait for warmer weather to try again. Maybe in the spring, or maybe in a couple of years. Zelensky said he doesn't think Ukraine could be a legit independent state as long as Russia can cut them off from the Black Sea by air or sea, and if still in control of the Nuke Power plant in Zaporozhye, Putin will pull the plug come winte,r leaving Ukraine without 30 % of all electrical power generated from there, which could result in Ukrainians freezing to death. And Putin will turn-down, or turn-off, the natural gas pipeline which could tank all European support for them. Waltz said right now, Putin thinks he's, 'winning slowly' which will only encourage him to continue this war indefinitely.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 25, 2022, 10:02:10 AM
Speaking of Russian propaganda lies...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-claims-it-hacked-himars-rocket-launchers-that-s-probably-a-big-fat-lie/ar-AA113w46?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=cbcd11c17e8fa58e716bce03d2931789

No, they clearly haven't 'hacked' the HIMARS -- or even got a good counter-battery program going.


But they may be losing the war on purpose...?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-defense-minister-sergei-shoigu-says-slow-pace-of-war-in-ukraine-is-on-purpose?source=articles&via=rss

...to minimize civilian casualties.  ::) ::) ::) ::) AAH, I SPRAINED MY EYES ROLLING THEM!!  :buck2:

As Slash just noted (from Rep. Waltz and the Armed Services Committee), Russia could be stalling to let gravity-and/or-winter decide this. Also, Putin may have no more choice.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 25, 2022, 10:50:12 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2022, 10:02:10 AM
...

As Slash just noted (from Rep. Waltz and the Armed Services Committee), Russia could be stalling to let gravity-and/or-winter decide this. Also, Putin may have no more choice.

IMHO, this is exactly what he is going to do.  Ukraine doesn't have the ability/manpower to throw him out of his current gains.  Putin will depopulate and/or colonize the captured areas to the extent he can, annex the captured areas, putting them under the Russian nuclear umbrella, and freeze the Europeans and Ukrainians.  The partial counter to this is for the US to begin drilling and exporting energy to the Europeans. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 25, 2022, 11:19:21 AM
'We're losing the war on purpose' is the most Russian thing I've read in the last 15 minutes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 25, 2022, 11:24:37 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on August 25, 2022, 10:50:12 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2022, 10:02:10 AM
...

As Slash just noted (from Rep. Waltz and the Armed Services Committee), Russia could be stalling to let gravity-and/or-winter decide this. Also, Putin may have no more choice.

IMHO, this is exactly what he is going to do.  Ukraine doesn't have the ability/manpower to throw him out of his current gains.  Putin will depopulate and/or colonize the captured areas to the extent he can, annex the captured areas, putting them under the Russian nuclear umbrella, and freeze the Europeans and Ukrainians.  The partial counter to this is for the US to begin drilling and exporting energy to the Europeans.

  Do they have to throw the Russians out or just blow up a lot of them?  While Russia still thinks hitting civilian stuff is worthwhile, the Ukrainians seem to be concentrating on rubbing out the
Russian capacity to do anything but shoot random HE at things.  It is possible that the more the Russians convince themselves they are winning, the faster they will collapse once it becomes clear
that they are not winning (at least in terms of having their war-fighting capabilities steadily eroded).  You can't go downhill forever and remain a credible force. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 25, 2022, 11:28:27 AM
^If any country on Earth can steadily erode and yet fight on, it's the Russians...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 25, 2022, 11:42:28 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 25, 2022, 11:28:27 AM
^If any country on Earth can steadily erode and yet fight on, it's the Russians...
I don't think he can frame the current "military action" as a Great Patriotic War"  We are not seeing  WW2's will to fight in this conflict.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 25, 2022, 11:47:09 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 25, 2022, 11:28:27 AM
^If any country on Earth can steadily erode and yet fight on, it's the Russians...

  They've collapsed far more often than most large states:  1905(Russo-Japanese and revolution), 1917 (twice -- Tsarist and Provisional), 1918 (treaty with Germany), 1920 (loss of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland), 1991.  That's six big collapses in the last 120 years.  Even the American Civil War didn't collapse the USA (just as a comparison).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 25, 2022, 12:22:29 PM
The will is definitely not there - but the Russians continue to go on the offensive.

The Ukraine War is the direct, most recent continuation of the 125 hears of history you posted above, Meng.

An 'imperial rebirth' in Putin's mind.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 25, 2022, 01:20:59 PM
Saw an article this morning (in USA Today, though can't find the link now) stating that Putin intends to... produce?... another 118 thousand troops for this year.

Well, he has around 70K fewer mouths to feed, so I guess this won't strain his logistics as much as it otherwise would have. Then again, his logistics have frayed so badly with 70K fewer mouths to feed, that almost another 120K might be much worse! At the very least, he should be putting those 118K on logistics duty. (And maybe harvest duty.)

I don't recall the article being clear about how Putin thought he was going to get them, by the way -- the writer speculated it would be by hiring volunteers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 25, 2022, 02:19:47 PM
"Comrades! Do your part in the NEW Great Patriotic War by making more babies to grow-up and fight in it. Get busy for Mother Russia"!  :-*
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 25, 2022, 04:44:06 PM
^ I can see that becoming real in the not too distant future.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 25, 2022, 05:24:22 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on August 25, 2022, 11:24:37 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on August 25, 2022, 10:50:12 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2022, 10:02:10 AM
...

As Slash just noted (from Rep. Waltz and the Armed Services Committee), Russia could be stalling to let gravity-and/or-winter decide this. Also, Putin may have no more choice.

IMHO, this is exactly what he is going to do.  Ukraine doesn't have the ability/manpower to throw him out of his current gains.  Putin will depopulate and/or colonize the captured areas to the extent he can, annex the captured areas, putting them under the Russian nuclear umbrella, and freeze the Europeans and Ukrainians.  The partial counter to this is for the US to begin drilling and exporting energy to the Europeans.

  Do they have to throw the Russians out or just blow up a lot of them?  While Russia still thinks hitting civilian stuff is worthwhile, the Ukrainians seem to be concentrating on rubbing out the
Russian capacity to do anything but shoot random HE at things.  It is possible that the more the Russians convince themselves they are winning, the faster they will collapse once it becomes clear
that they are not winning (at least in terms of having their war-fighting capabilities steadily eroded).  You can't go downhill forever and remain a credible force.

If the Ukrainians can some how bring about the collapse of the Russian army, then they might be able to throw them out.  The problem is that this is an attrition war, and I don't see how, given the correlation of forces,  the Ukrainians can create the required conditions to bring about a complete collapse of the Russian military's will to fight before their own will to fight is compromised.  I may be wrong on that, but I just don't see it happening right now.  Possibly the political will in Russia to continue the war can be made to collapse, but the public opinion polling doesn't show it (yet).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 25, 2022, 05:38:45 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2022, 01:20:59 PM
Saw an article this morning (in USA Today, though can't find the link now) stating that Putin intends to... produce?... another 118 thousand troops for this year.

Well, he has around 70K fewer mouths to feed, so I guess this won't strain his logistics as much as it otherwise would have. Then again, his logistics have frayed so badly with 70K fewer mouths to feed, that almost another 120K might be much worse! At the very least, he should be putting those 118K on logistics duty. (And maybe harvest duty.)

I don't recall the article being clear about how Putin thought he was going to get them, by the way -- the writer speculated it would be by hiring volunteers.

Easy...there are always those 100K North Koreans.... :D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 25, 2022, 06:04:39 PM
Those 100k North Koreans would probably gain weight on Russian logistics.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2022, 07:29:30 PM
QuoteThe problem is that this is an attrition war, and I don't see how, given the correlation of forces,  the Ukrainians can create the required conditions to bring about a complete collapse of the Russian military's will to fight before their own will to fight is compromised.

I think the Ukrainians can bring the needed amount of weight to bear but only on 1 axis.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 25, 2022, 08:54:47 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2022, 07:29:30 PM
QuoteThe problem is that this is an attrition war, and I don't see how, given the correlation of forces,  the Ukrainians can create the required conditions to bring about a complete collapse of the Russian military's will to fight before their own will to fight is compromised.

I think the Ukrainians can bring the needed amount of weight to bear but only on 1 axis.

I agree, that is probably the best the Ukrainians can do, and unfortunately, I don't think it will be enough.  For the Ukrainians to accomplish their war aims, they will have to collapse the Russian will to fight across all fronts, and I don't think that is likely.  To the contrary, I think the west's will to continue to support the Ukraine is more likely to collapse before Russia's will to fight collapses.  If this scenario happens, it will be over for Ukraine.  And this is the scenario that I believe that Russia is trying to develop with its reduction of energy exports to Europe.    If the US were more serious about defending Ukraine, we would be ramping up our energy production to both help supply the EU and to drive down prices to hurt Putin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2022, 09:44:04 PM
I disagree.  if they can pull something off and retake Kherson and capture lots of troops then thats the first domino, a defeat they cant hide and a win that goes a long way in continued support.  the west also needs to get over its fear of russian nuclear threats.  they aint gonna use them over this.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2022, 11:33:34 PM
what could go wrong.   :hide:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbBNOX_WQAAwRXY?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 26, 2022, 01:27:52 AM
kinda says it all.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1562711259363278848
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on August 26, 2022, 05:28:58 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2022, 01:20:59 PM
Saw an article this morning (in USA Today, though can't find the link now) stating that Putin intends to... produce?... another 118 thousand troops for this year.

Well, he has around 70K fewer mouths to feed, so I guess this won't strain his logistics as much as it otherwise would have. Then again, his logistics have frayed so badly with 70K fewer mouths to feed, that almost another 120K might be much worse! At the very least, he should be putting those 118K on logistics duty. (And maybe harvest duty.)

I don't recall the article being clear about how Putin thought he was going to get them, by the way -- the writer speculated it would be by hiring volunteers.
BBC says it's with lots of cash

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62677262
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 26, 2022, 07:17:45 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on August 25, 2022, 05:24:22 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on August 25, 2022, 11:24:37 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on August 25, 2022, 10:50:12 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2022, 10:02:10 AM
...

As Slash just noted (from Rep. Waltz and the Armed Services Committee), Russia could be stalling to let gravity-and/or-winter decide this. Also, Putin may have no more choice.

IMHO, this is exactly what he is going to do.  Ukraine doesn't have the ability/manpower to throw him out of his current gains.  Putin will depopulate and/or colonize the captured areas to the extent he can, annex the captured areas, putting them under the Russian nuclear umbrella, and freeze the Europeans and Ukrainians.  The partial counter to this is for the US to begin drilling and exporting energy to the Europeans.

  Do they have to throw the Russians out or just blow up a lot of them?  While Russia still thinks hitting civilian stuff is worthwhile, the Ukrainians seem to be concentrating on rubbing out the
Russian capacity to do anything but shoot random HE at things.  It is possible that the more the Russians convince themselves they are winning, the faster they will collapse once it becomes clear
that they are not winning (at least in terms of having their war-fighting capabilities steadily eroded).  You can't go downhill forever and remain a credible force.

If the Ukrainians can some how bring about the collapse of the Russian army, then they might be able to throw them out.  The problem is that this is an attrition war, and I don't see how, given the correlation of forces,  the Ukrainians can create the required conditions to bring about a complete collapse of the Russian military's will to fight before their own will to fight is compromised.  I may be wrong on that, but I just don't see it happening right now.  Possibly the political will in Russia to continue the war can be made to collapse, but the public opinion polling doesn't show it (yet).

  The problem for the Russians with on-going attrition is that they have been losing more rapidly since the very beginning.  Now being steadily attritted is built into their plans to hang on with less and less.  This is not a winning strategy.  Meanwhile -- while the Ukrainians have been losing nearly as much stuff as the Russians, they can see the end of the tunnel.  Their strategy is to keep hammering til the Russians leave.  Well that is a winning strategy -- simple, direct and increasingly it looks like it is working: just keep hitting the Russian military gear and logistics while the Russians waste ammo shooting at everything.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 26, 2022, 08:46:06 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on August 25, 2022, 08:54:47 PM
If the US were more serious about defending Ukraine, we would be ramping up our energy production to both help supply the EU and to drive down prices to hurt Putin.

In principle I agree, but at this point I doubt we could ramp up our energy production enough to help ourselves in time for this winter, much less the Ukraine.  :-\

On the other hand, Ukraine should have a lot of wrecked foliage to use for fuel reserves this winter... but are they even able to Stalingrad the whole nation? (I assume they'll still be willing.)


Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 26, 2022, 01:27:52 AM
kinda says it all.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1562711259363278848

Considering cats usually prefer to dig at least a shallow hole, yep!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 26, 2022, 10:52:00 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 26, 2022, 08:46:06 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on August 25, 2022, 08:54:47 PM
If the US were more serious about defending Ukraine, we would be ramping up our energy production to both help supply the EU and to drive down prices to hurt Putin.

In principle I agree, but at this point I doubt we could ramp up our energy production enough to help ourselves in time for this winter, much less the Ukraine.  :-\

...

You are right in that the time to make a difference this winter has largely passed.  However, the fact that 1) this strategy was evident pretty much as soon as the war started 6 months ago and 2) we have done nothing substantive, and continue to do nothing substantative during this timeframe to mitigate this threat to energy supplies despite 4) the fact that we could also make money doing so indicates 4) We (The U.S government) is not really serious about this war.  I hope I'm wrong on this, but I don't think I am.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 26, 2022, 11:19:04 AM
I dunno...there is a fine line here that the US must tread between supplying Ukraine, standing up to Russia and stoking a wider war. In February it warmed my cold dead ashy heart to see NATO fall in line together for the benefit of Ukraine. Granted even the Ukrainians state that it often not enough and there is the perception that Ukraine is being sacrificed for the rest of Western Europe, but it is not like the U.S. and the West are doing absolutely nothing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 26, 2022, 12:16:15 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 26, 2022, 11:19:04 AM
I dunno...there is a fine line here that the US must tread between supplying Ukraine, standing up to Russia and stoking a wider war. In February it warmed my cold dead ashy heart to see NATO fall in line together for the benefit of Ukraine. Granted even the Ukrainians state that it often not enough and there is the perception that Ukraine is being sacrificed for the rest of Western Europe, but it is not like the U.S. and the West are doing absolutely nothing.

  Given that everyone (and that would include me), thought the Russians would knock out and overrun Ukraine in less than a week -- still a bad idea but not much that could be done -- the western response
has been more to exploit an unexpected situation than to do anything constructive or even particularly rational.  The West and the US are still reacting and it seems only now are people realizing
that the simplest answer is to beat Russia as quickly and thoroughly as possible on the theory that "If the dog is dead, the rabies are gone" -- still not very constructive, but at least focused on hammering the Russians until they leave Ukraine -- not for any over-arching rational reason, but as a reaction and as an act of self-preservation.  Whereas in February self-preservation for the West meant letting the Russians overrun Ukraine, now self-preservation means hammering the Russians until they leave.  There's really no other clear choice at the moment.  And I should add that a "stalemate" in which the Russians go on being hammered is not much of a winning strategy for Russia, but then rationality seems to be in short supply even in Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 26, 2022, 12:52:11 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 26, 2022, 11:19:04 AM
I dunno...there is a fine line here that the US must tread between supplying Ukraine, standing up to Russia and stoking a wider war. In February it warmed my cold dead ashy heart to see NATO fall in line together for the benefit of Ukraine. Granted even the Ukrainians state that it often not enough and there is the perception that Ukraine is being sacrificed for the rest of Western Europe, but it is not like the U.S. and the West are doing absolutely nothing.

I wouldn't claim that the US is doing nothing.  Rather, I would claim that what we are doing in unfocused and unlikely to result in anything more than, at best, a violent stalemate with 1/3 of the Ukraine absorbed into Russia, resulting in a festering wound that will lead to further conflict in the future.  The fact that simply increasing our own energy production to drop global prices and hurt Russia (while helping our economy and allies) is apparently a step the US is unwilling to take shows the lack of seriousness regarding the war by many in Washington.  Yes, they are happy to send lots of weapons.  But what is their definition of victory, and how do they propose to get there?  I'm not sure that discussion has been held, certainly not in any public fashion.  The one thing NATO's reaction may have done is given China some pause regarding  trying to do the same IRT Taiwan.  At least thus far.  But I wouldn't count on the PRC being dissuaded for very long.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 26, 2022, 01:24:54 PM
^I agree with you both on the above. For Ukraine the definition of victory has and will remain 'Russia out of Ukrainian territory.'

Honestly and to your point I am not sure what the definition of victory is for the rest of the West and NATO, including the US.

And I'm sure the Chinese and Russians are wondering how far they can go and push the West and especially the US into direct conflict.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 26, 2022, 01:39:22 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 26, 2022, 01:24:54 PM
^I agree with you both on the above. For Ukraine the definition of victory has and will remain 'Russia out of Ukrainian territory.'

Honestly and to your point I am not sure what the definition of victory is for the rest of the West and NATO, including the US.

And I'm sure the Chinese and Russians are wondering how far they can go and push the West and especially the US into direct conflict.

  Yeah, but, you have to look at the Russian point of view on this too.  Can they really count on remaining unable to grasp reality for an extended period?  It's kind of like
the mental exercise where somebody says "Don't think of a blue square."  How much longer can the Russians pretend that what they are doing makes any kind of sense at all?
How long can they not think about what is staring them in the face?  A "stalemate" where they just go on being processsed into dead meat by whatever weapons the west sends
to Ukraine?  Look at their options in Ukraine: do they just keep sending their forces into a killing ground?  They are already pulling planes out of Crimea and ships out of the Black Sea.
Nobody seems to want to help them with their little problem with facing reality.  Even if thousands of North Koreans get sent to get blown up in Ukraine -- what does that
say about the Russians?  Well...maybe they are just fed up with being sent to get blown up in Ukraine.  While the west may not be very enthusiastic about whatever it takes to
get the Russians to leave, it is certainly a better choice to hammer the Russians for however long it takes than to wait for the Russians to sit back and pick another target
for whatever it is that they think they are doing (which is still not very clear).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 26, 2022, 02:17:31 PM
The Russian party line is that they have been pushed into this situation by an ever-expanding NATO.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 26, 2022, 06:53:59 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 26, 2022, 02:17:31 PM
The Russian party line is that they have been pushed into this situation by an ever-expanding NATO.

   The last big additions to NATO were in 2004.  Ten years later Russia attacked Ukraine and then went to war in Syria.  Hard to see any real NATO problems with any of that.
If they wanted to hold on to Crimea -- well they already had that.  I suppose the actual aim had nothing at all to do with NATO and more to do with the idea of an easy total
take over of Ukraine BUT once there is no take over I would think rationally some fast and fancy negotiations in say March would have preserved everything and
kept Finland, Sweden and the
Ukraine out of NATO.  Maybe Dugin and the ultra-Orthodox messed that up and that's why Putin had one of the Dugins blown up -- pure frustration.
Cuz Once they passed that milestone it should have been very very clear that there was nothing to gain and
everything to lose.  So it is hard to see what they want out of all this, though maybe a few more car-bombs will clarify that.

And from Reuters...the Russians can't really say what it is that they want:

Russia can't stop war, even if Ukraine drops NATO hopes -Putin ally
Yesterday 5:53 PM

(Reuters) - A top ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Moscow would not stop its military campaign in Ukraine even if Kyiv formally renounced its aspirations to join NATO.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, also said in a French television interview that Russia was prepared to hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy subject to certain conditions.

Even before the February invasion, Moscow made clear Ukrainian membership of NATO was unacceptable to it.

"Renouncing its participation in the North Atlantic alliance is now vital, but it is already insufficient in order to establish peace," Medvedev told LCI television in quotes reported by Russian news agencies.

Russia, he said, would continue the campaign until its goals had been achieved. Putin says he wants to "denazify" Ukraine. Kyiv and the West say this is a baseless pretext for a war of conquest.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 26, 2022, 09:38:10 PM
Thinking outside the box here. Vlad needs more men, the Chi Comms have plenty. The Chi Comms need more oil, Vlad has plenty. I could foresee a situation develop where a 100,000-150,000 man Chinese, 'Volunteer' army travels to the Ukraine to completely wipe-out the country side by side with their Russian comrades. Vlad gets the land, the Chinese get the nice mineral goodies there. Without Ukraine's food production, the world faces starvation. Vlad and Ping would LOVE to have it in their possession.

What would the West do? Facing Ping's hordes, not a lot I think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 26, 2022, 09:46:51 PM
I wondered when I first heard it, how much China might be behind the Nork offer to loan some 'volunteers' for the fight.

China's economic voodoo-gaming is about to crash hard, and picking up more mainland in Asia could be a good deal for them vs mouthing off about never letting go of Formosa-province (or whatever they call it).

On the other hand, China might possibly have an even worse logistic problem cooperating with Russia in the Ukraine, than the Norks! -- though they'd surely have the advantage of more citizens knowing Russian and vice versa.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 26, 2022, 09:54:28 PM
Meanwhile, stumbled on this guy, "The Enforcer", about half an hour ago. He's been following the war news since day 1, and doing extensive digests on about half the days so far (77 vids plus other shorts for footage).



The day-by-day playlist is here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6DlCjT6TnyVdYyxSo1zhBS5n7vQfDSI1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 26, 2022, 11:31:36 PM
ya, that aint happening Slash.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 27, 2022, 06:14:00 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 26, 2022, 09:38:10 PM
Thinking outside the box here. Vlad needs more men, the Chi Comms have plenty. The Chi Comms need more oil, Vlad has plenty. I could foresee a situation develop where a 100,000-150,000 man Chinese, 'Volunteer' army travels to the Ukraine to completely wipe-out the country side by side with their Russian comrades. Vlad gets the land, the Chinese get the nice mineral goodies there. Without Ukraine's food production, the world faces starvation. Vlad and Ping would LOVE to have it in their possession.

What would the West do? Facing Ping's hordes, not a lot I think.

  The west can go on doing what little it is doing cuz why would China bother?  They are already getting a lot out of the war without doing a thing.  Their economy -- even now -- is the second largest
in the world and more than 10 times the size of Russia's  Only the USA has a larger GDP than China.  Russia isn't even in the top 10 in terms of GDP ranking with the rest of the world.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 27, 2022, 09:16:10 AM
According to this: https://www.worlddata.info/largest-economies.php Russia is just barely edged out by South Korea for the #10 spot.  HOWEVER, to put this into further context, assuming that Texas was counted as its own country (which, according to many Texans I know, it is  :D), then Texas would edge out both South Korea and Russia for the #10 spot. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Texas#:~:text=As%20a%20sovereign%20country%20(2016,ranking%2026th%20in%20the%20nation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 27, 2022, 09:24:52 AM
And right on cue, leftist German politicians are demanding that weapon sales to the Ukraine be stopped in favor of a negotiated settlement.   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/spd-lawmakers-break-ranks-demanding-scholz-halt-ukraine-weapons-pursue-peace   IMHO, this movement will strengthen politically as energy shortages hit the European consumers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 27, 2022, 09:51:32 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on August 27, 2022, 09:24:52 AM
And right on cue, leftist German politicians are demanding that weapon sales to the Ukraine be stopped in favor of a negotiated settlement.   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/spd-lawmakers-break-ranks-demanding-scholz-halt-ukraine-weapons-pursue-peace   IMHO, this movement will strengthen politically as energy shortages hit the European consumers.

Negotiating with Putin worked fine so far  :idiot2:.

(https://static.dw.com/image/60785471_303.jpg)
This is the moment he assures Scholz he will never attack Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 27, 2022, 10:17:28 AM
That would make one-hell-of-a Wargaming table.  :dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 27, 2022, 12:22:39 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 27, 2022, 10:17:28 AM
That would make one-hell-of-a Wargaming table.  :dreamer:

Imagine the entire 1914 series by Reisch being laid out and played on that table...  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on August 27, 2022, 02:41:53 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on August 27, 2022, 09:24:52 AM
And right on cue, leftist German politicians are demanding that weapon sales to the Ukraine be stopped in favor of a negotiated settlement.   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/spd-lawmakers-break-ranks-demanding-scholz-halt-ukraine-weapons-pursue-peace   IMHO, this movement will strengthen politically as energy shortages hit the European consumers.
...and the temperatures start dropping.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 27, 2022, 07:36:59 PM
Quote from: steve58 on August 27, 2022, 02:41:53 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on August 27, 2022, 09:24:52 AM
And right on cue, leftist German politicians are demanding that weapon sales to the Ukraine be stopped in favor of a negotiated settlement.   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/spd-lawmakers-break-ranks-demanding-scholz-halt-ukraine-weapons-pursue-peace   IMHO, this movement will strengthen politically as energy shortages hit the European consumers.
...and the temperatures start dropping.

  But it nicer to stay in Khazakhstan:

  Russian Force Won't Return From Mission Fearing Ukraine Deployment: Report
Xander Landen - 3h ago (newsweek)


Russian troops in Kazakhstan are refusing to return to Russia because they do not want to be deployed to the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian intelligence officials said Saturday.

Russian troops in Kazakhstan are refusing to return to Russia because they do not want to be deployed to the war in Ukraine , Ukrainian intelligence officials said Saturday.

There are roughly 1,000 Russian troops in Kazakhstan according to Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense. The directorate says that the the military contingent stationed in the country "does not want to replenish the composition of the occupation contingent" in Ukraine, according to a translation of a post on Telegram.

However, it also said that the "formal reason for the refusal is the lack of special air transport, which is fully engaged in the war with Ukraine."

Ukrainska Pravda first reported on the claims from the intelligence officials on Saturday.

In its Telegram post, the directorate said that Moscow does not want to completely withdraw troops from Kazakhstan. The troops were sent to the country in January following rallies against its government. The directorate added that Russia has almost completely withdrawn its troops from nearby Tajikistan and Armenia to support its war in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 27, 2022, 09:36:45 PM
Russia had troops in Armenia??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 28, 2022, 01:13:20 AM
fuck russia
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 28, 2022, 06:21:09 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 27, 2022, 09:36:45 PM
Russia had troops in Armenia??

Watching the ceasefire there, I guess.  But still in Georgia.

Meanwhile:

Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Alijan Smailov on Saturday suspended exports of its military products for a year amid the war in Ukraine.


Smailov, at a meeting of the Commission on Defense Industry Affairs, approved the proposal of the Ministry of Industry "to suspend the export of arms, military equipment and products for military purposes until the end of August 2023," reads the government statement.

According to the missive, the members of the Commission have supported this economic proposal. However, no further details have been provided as to the reason for this measure.

The former Soviet republic, a neighbor and ally of Russia, has avoided taking sides in the Ukrainian conflict, while calling for a peaceful resolution. Kazakh President Kasim Khomart Tokayev urged Moscow and Kiev to engage in dialogue to end the conflict, while offering his country as a mediator of the talks.

"The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has nothing to do with Kazakhstan. We do not support either side. There can be no doubts in this respect," Kazakh Deputy Defense Minister Sultan Kamaletdinov said, as picked up by the Tengrinews news portal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on August 28, 2022, 10:12:24 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 27, 2022, 09:36:45 PM
Russia had troops in Armenia??

Yes.  When the war ended last year Russia stationed some troops in Armenia as part of keeping the peace. 
I'll be honest, Russia is totally using Armenia in order to maintain a presence in the Caucuses.  But on the other hand if it weren't for Russia's help over the years Armenia's neighbors would have exterminated us for religious reasons. 

As an American I hate what Russia is doing in Ukraine.
As an Armenian I'm grateful for what Russia has done in Armenia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 28, 2022, 01:33:50 PM
At this point, in 2022, having Russian troops acting as 'peacekeepers' anywhere is like having German troops acting as 'peacekeepers' anywhere in 1942.

I think I knew that you had an Armenian background, W8.

But as someone with Ukrainian ancestry (and Belorussian)...I will never trust the current Russian government again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 28, 2022, 01:46:52 PM
Ack, I didn't realize (though I should have suspected) the Russians had withdrawn from Armenia! It'll be a straight miracle if your neighbors don't take the opportunity for some more genocidal cleaning, W8. I'm so sorry...

Well, maybe since Turkey is in NATO, Armenia can apply for membership? (There's some super-dark humor in that, I realize.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on August 28, 2022, 01:51:00 PM
^^Yup, I totally understand where you're coming from.  I know I mentioned my background before a few times.  Being born here in the states however let's me see things from both perspectives so I get what you mean.  I didn't realize you can trace your ancestors back to Ukraine. 

So in light of today's current events I do know that:

You can't trust the Russians.   
They use so many people/culture groups to their own advantages.

Quote from: JasonPratt on August 28, 2022, 01:46:52 PM
Ack, I didn't realize (though I should have suspected) the Russians had withdrawn from Armenia! It'll be a straight miracle if your neighbors don't take the opportunity for some more genocidal cleaning, W8. I'm so sorry...

Well, maybe since Turkey is in NATO, Armenia can apply for membership? (There's some super-dark humor in that, I realize.)

Thanks Jason!  The strange thing is I think that today they won't go in there to do some ethnic cleansing.  I really do believe that maybe this is all about grabbing slices of land here and there to let the oil in the Caucuses flow.  Armenia is in the way but it might end up just losing some land not their lives.  At least I hope. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 28, 2022, 02:00:40 PM
Yes - two of my grandparents were born in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 28, 2022, 02:04:51 PM
The historical side of my mind is trying to figure out the last time Russia could be trusted... um... and now I'm realizing I only know enough patchwork pieces of Russian history (back to the Rus) to realize, in turn, I only know enough of their history to know that they can't usually be trusted.  :buck2:

So, someone with a more comprehensive historical overview than me (which shouldn't be too hard): halpz?!?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 28, 2022, 02:06:18 PM
Meanwhile, the Enforcer had a nice video article yesterday about the lack of most modern tanks in Ukraine's invasion:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 28, 2022, 03:33:54 PM
And Enforcer's news recap last evening:



("Running out of soldiers" isn't accurate, of course. They're like at 10% casualties, taking the full deployment numbers into account. The point is that they're having to 'ask' for more 'volunteers' as 'contract' troops, in a war that according to their propaganda they're supposed to be solidly and easily winning -- which could lead to big internal trouble.)

One of the more amusing things I learned (someone might have mentioned it here, but if so I've forgotten -- likely Star if so, as he's often on point!) is that the Russians are often using plastic helmets so soft a man can break or punch through it by hand.

Enforcer found the aerosoft helmets (on Wish.com) being supplied to the troops; and also a video meant to be Russian propaganda of the brave, determined VDV rolling forward and looking out on alert for targets -- but the soldier is wearing an aerosoft helmet!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 28, 2022, 04:19:59 PM
Plastic helmets?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 28, 2022, 04:44:46 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 28, 2022, 04:19:59 PM
Plastic helmets?
Looks good, cheap, and let's you walk farther without getting tired after your vehicle runs out of gas!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 28, 2022, 06:50:39 PM
Lord help them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 28, 2022, 07:03:33 PM
Someone must have told them that carbon-fiber helmets are technically plastic...  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on August 28, 2022, 08:12:20 PM
Reminds me of some rumor about a dude tossing his SAPI plates and replacing them with cardboard.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 28, 2022, 10:03:36 PM
I've been working on a plausible counter-scenario as a theory. We've got two pieces of information, really:

1.) a video of Uks claiming that they got helmets from the Orcs so flimsy that a soldier can break them with his hands, as demonstrated;

and

2.) a Russian video promoting the VDV which shows at least one soldier (maybe two or even three) using a helmet style which can be exactly matched to a particular Airsoft/paintball model of helmet.

The two pieces of information could be explained another way around: there are legitimate helmets made/used by the Russians which an AirSoft supplier then created a design from because of course there's a market to replicate the look (and to some extent feel) of accurate modern wargear. (And from other time periods of course.) Someone in Ukraine picks up on this, orders (or otherwise obtains) some Airsoft gear, and pretends Russians are wearing it. As we know, the Uks are not above some humorous but actively misleading propaganda. This theory also covers the facts -- just as completely...?

Normally this 'propaganda' theory would have the extra benefit of not having to suppose that the Russians are really equipping their troops with (Chinese-made?) Airsoft helmets, which would be insane. However, we also can see from past experience that the Russians do insane things to give the mere appearance of competency. So... eh, maybe a balance?

I suppose we'd need more data points, or even a deductively confirmed datum, to be sure, e.g. a verified Russian complaining that he and his troops were supplied with stupid plastic molded helmets which only looked like the real thing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on August 29, 2022, 05:48:12 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 28, 2022, 10:03:36 PM
I suppose we'd need more data points, or even a deductively confirmed datum, to be sure, e.g. a verified Russian complaining that he and his troops were supplied with stupid plastic molded helmets which only looked like the real thing.

The troops with the substandard equipment never made it back to complain, I'd hazard to say.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 29, 2022, 06:51:15 AM
Last night's Enforcer news digest:



They raised a little over $20K last night for the Ukrainian branch of the "Save the Children" charity (which dates back to 1919).

The somewhat clickbaity marketing title (naturally), refers to new evidence of Russia's financial collapse: removing practically all infrastructure from their national budget; as well as arrests of wealthy Russians (i.e. supporters keeping the regime going) in unlawful meetings.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 29, 2022, 07:06:59 AM
As an interesting side-update to one of the more amusing stories from Saturday: one of the guys in the attempted Russian propaganda film who was trying to show off the Russian drone system, who got his drone zorched and/or stolen by nearby Uk troops, was outed as being a more overtly (Duginian?) Nazi-ish Russian Nazi!

Also, to no one's surprise anywhere, after the disastrous strike on that airbase a week or two ago, Russia is pulling its jets out of Crimea.  :clap: <:-)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 29, 2022, 09:08:01 AM
Roughly 2 hours ago, tweets have started saying that the Ukrainian Kherson counter-offensive has begun, breaking through the first line of Russian defenders.

Primarily this comes from the KyivPost twitter. Russian propaganda sort of confirms this, stating that HIMARS is going after the supply bridges again (including the one across that dam at Nova Kharkova, iirc?), this time targeting infantry which would be a first (so far) if confirmed -- more likely the rounds are hitting troops trying to get across the bridges and/or on the floating bridge(s) nearby (such as at the main Kherson bridge, which as reported on Saturday also has a functioning ferry still operating. Or did. ;) )

But of course, the troops themselves may be targeted directly in various places, don't know yet. Certainly Uk arty has been filmed zapping troops in trenches before now, using drone spotting.

This puts a new spin on the air force evacuating Crimea this weekend...!  ^-^
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 29, 2022, 10:44:23 AM
I wonder if the green-old 3rd Army Corps will get there in time!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-is-sending-a-fresh-army-corps-to-ukraine-its-troops-are-unfit-and-old/ar-AA11e3Ga?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=e2c1af546b47839a40e18f2c1ac2ec85

Also unclear how large this 'corps' really is. Russia has a history of creating container units to be filled out later and putting them on the front line. This can actually be very effective: a shell 'army' of a few divisions can suddenly bulk up into the largest armed force on earth without looking any different on paper (perhaps most famously right before the 1939 Winter War); and the same principle can be used to hulk out otherwise weakling corps. But that only works if the manpower, equipment, training, and logistic support (at many, many levels) is already in place. It's entirely possible that any serious armored corps will strain Russia's local (and even backfield) logistics to the breaking point upon arrival.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 29, 2022, 11:14:35 AM
"My army's crappier!" "NO, MY ARMY'S CRAPPIER!" "But mine is a wrecked shell of a crappy army!"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-to-host-war-games-with-china-amid-ukraine-tensions-as-west-joins-in-exercise-pitch-black/ar-AA11e0yR?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=2db5fdc102de9a27acb6b17bb554f256

Russia and China vow to drill for "repelling aggression". Russia has already been drilling hard for 6 months, on some pretty repelling aggression, so its 50 troops free to be at the exercises will be able to give up-to-the-minute tips to the Chinese on this topic no doubt.  >:D

(Tip 1: "Do something else with your life choices.")


Edited to add: meanwhile, the US will be joining 12 other nations in Australia for the "Pitch Black" horror exercises.

OpForce China: "How's it look?"
OpForce Russia: "Looks clear."
OpChina blitzes and gets destroyed immediately.
"Dammit, you said it was clear!"
"I said it looked clear!"
"Well, now what?!"
"....looks clear."  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 29, 2022, 11:21:51 AM
A few more details confirming the Kherson Counter-offensive has started rolling!

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-launches-military-push-south-possible-counteroffensive-russia-war-2022-8
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 29, 2022, 11:27:55 AM
A short zoomed-in satellite photo and commentary on that Nova Kakhovka bridge (why I thought that had an 'r' in it, never mind  ::) ::) ::) ):



About to be a bad day for any SovOrc troops on the west side of the river...!

Also, Melitopol's military base is on fire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2022, 04:30:26 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on August 28, 2022, 08:12:20 PM
Reminds me of some rumor about a dude tossing his SAPI plates and replacing them with cardboard.
confirmed that at least one of these idiots did just that but replaced it with a mac book that he stole.  L:-)
the mac book didnt stop the bullet that killed him.  :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2022, 04:38:17 PM
QuoteAlso unclear how large this 'corps' really is.

slightly smaller then regimental size.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2022, 04:40:42 PM
and heres your helmet video:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1563628411255496704
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 29, 2022, 05:06:14 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2022, 04:38:17 PM
QuoteAlso unclear how large this 'corps' really is.

slightly smaller then regimental size.

I lol'd unreasonably hard at that.  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 29, 2022, 05:20:05 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2022, 04:38:17 PM
QuoteAlso unclear how large this 'corps' really is.

slightly smaller then regimental size.
Best quote from the twitter feed:

𝑰𝒏 𝑺𝒐𝒗𝒊𝒆𝒕 𝑹𝒖𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒂 𝒉𝒆𝒂𝒅 𝒄𝒓𝒖𝒔𝒉𝒆𝒔 𝒉𝒆𝒍𝒎𝒆𝒕
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 30, 2022, 02:40:57 PM
Last night's Enforcer show accidentally triggered a copyright strike, so he has uploaded a quick commentary on the Ukrainian Counter-offensive:



Since he doesn't have solid news about the details of the counter-offensive yet (due to a request of a media blackout by Ukraine), he has settled for looking at the bridge situation again with an eye toward how this will affect the Uk attack and the Orc defense.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 30, 2022, 03:14:43 PM
I've been out of pocket for a few days (hardware problems), but I wanted to chime in with one quick bit of context around how "the U.S. isn't even willing to produce enough surplus energy to help the Europeans this winter".  This is based on growing up in oil country, but it's also based on talking with lots of people in the industry (including but hardly limited to my own brother).

The challenge with energy sources is that, in the short term, they aren't really fungible.  In particular, Germany relies a lot on natural gas for its heating and electricity generation.

Coal can be shipped by train cars, which can be shuttled around.  Oil can be shipped by tankers, which can be rerouted.  Liquid natural gas (LNG) mostly travels by pipeline. 

There have been some headlines that indicate that the Greens in Germany have been unwilling to reactivate/postpone shutting down a few nuclear plants that could go a long ways towards addressing the electricity shortfall this winter, if not the heating shortfall.  If there's another side to the story, I've not heard of it.

In terms of "the US producing more energy", actual investments in big-iron energy production take YEARS.  Drilling new wells and/or reactivating oil fields often takes 18 months.  Refineries and generation plants take longer than that and cost BILLIONS of dollars.  Those investments last for 20 or 30 years, but they are NOT cheap.  To add to the complexity, not all oil refineries are equal (some refine "light, sweet crude" like the Saudis produce, while others produce "heavy, sour crude" like the Russians produce).

All you can really conclude about US energy companies in recent times is that, when they had to choose between investing in additional capacity (which they might not need) or investing in shareholder buybacks (which would undoubtedly increase shareholder value), they chose the buybacks.  This is one of the contributors to inflation, but only one of them.

Even if, on the day that Russia invaded Ukraine, the US started drilling like crazy and building more refineries, etc., it wouldn't start to affect the price of energy for 1-2 years.  It is what it is.  A competitive, free market is VERY good at many things (efficiency being near the top of the list), but "long term planning" is seldom one of them.  This is why the US outsourced the procurement of all surgical masks to China 10 or 15 years ago...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 30, 2022, 03:24:28 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2022, 04:40:42 PM
and heres your helmet video:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1563628411255496704

Stay away from that guy in a head-butting fight...well actually just stay away from that guy in any fight...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on August 30, 2022, 03:54:49 PM
Came across this interesting graphic on Twitter that shows American military bases in Europe dependency on Russian fossil fuels.  With Russia cutting off LNG supplies to Europe, I suspect the commanders in Europe are getting more than a little worried about their Strategic and Operational Readiness.

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fgard-murray.com%2Fimages%2Fus_military_russian_fossil_fuel_dependence.png&hash=cbd3e885bf34fd72d4bcfb5444b829dde119d70f)

https://watson.brown.edu/climatesolutionslab/research/2022/mapping-us-military-dependence-russian-fossil-fuels

Apologies if it has been previously posted...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 30, 2022, 05:23:08 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 30, 2022, 03:24:28 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2022, 04:40:42 PM
and heres your helmet video:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1563628411255496704

Stay away from that guy in a head-butting fight...well actually just stay away from that guy in any fight...

I assure you my head is thicker.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 30, 2022, 09:32:46 PM
Wow, I hadn't even thought of the effect of shutting off the LNG to NATO forces...  #:-) L:-) That could add another strategic constraint for next year, easily.

Meanwhile, tonight's Enforcer news catchup -- pre-produced, not live, for a while due to the accidental copyright strike (no live shows for 7 days). It just started about 30 minutes ago, so I haven't watched it all yet, but when I saw the first visual confirmation of Uk pilots using HARMs, I thought I'd post up early:



Since the broadcast is ongoing as I type, I can't give an exact timestamp (not good at reverse time math!) but it's only a few minutes into the cast. Mig-29 footage is excellent!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 31, 2022, 02:55:26 PM
Steve, the fossil fuel map of US bases is interesting.  I wonder how much of that electrical generation is mission-critical for a warfighting environment?  I honestly have no idea how to measure that, but I'd be surprised if the Department of Defense bureaucrats have much idea, either.

The US energy dependence on Russia and the Middle East has been one of the most sadly neglected areas of US policy for at least two decades now.  There are a lot of reasons why (some good, others bad), but it's simply not been a topic that either political party has been eager to embrace except on very particular issues (e.g., Republicans urging "Drill, baby, drill!"  while Democrats scream "Renewables Now!!!!" at the top of their lungs). 

Like most things that have required some degree of personal sacrifice on the part of American citizens, our politicians have mostly avoided the topic for a long time now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 31, 2022, 06:08:01 PM
shoot and scoot!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1565005545773404160
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 31, 2022, 06:40:35 PM
Looks like they know what they're doing.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 31, 2022, 07:04:21 PM
3 maps trying to show whats happening now:

map 1 from soviet milbloggers:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbfjHDCX0AApIRd?format=jpg&name=large)

map 2 from twitter osint:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fbg1zJ-WQAA7ygu?format=png&name=small)

map 3 is some google mishmash:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbgezxEWQAAJcGm?format=jpg&name=medium)

map 4 is Austerlitz, which makes more sense if you were to zoom out any of the previous maps:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbhCDJpXkAEknyz?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 31, 2022, 11:54:50 PM
Interesting.  I wish any of those maps had a scale.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 01, 2022, 07:41:51 AM
Looks like the Enforcer's channel has suffered a massive HIMARs strike from Youtube, for whatever reason: depending on what tab you check on his channel, they've left him either one or several videos of the 180ish he had earlier this week.  :-\

So no more updates from there for a while.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 01, 2022, 08:09:12 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 31, 2022, 06:40:35 PM
Looks like they know what they're doing.  :coolsmiley:

  It looks like the Russians have figured out a cheaper way to get rid of their industrialists -- just throw them out of sixth-floor windows (and note that 5 other industrialists have "committed suicide" in the last few months (from CNN):

The chairman of Russian oil and gas giant Lukoil — which spoke out against Russia's invasion of Ukraine — has died after falling out of a hospital window, state news agencies RIA Novosti and TASS reported Thursday.

Ravil Maganov died at the Central Clinical Hospital west of Moscow, according to the reports, which cite the hospital and law enforcement sources.

"The incident occurred around 07:00 am Moscow time in the Central Clinical Hospital ... The man fell out of the sixth-floor window and died as a result of his injuries," a source told TASS.

Lukoil confirmed Maganov's death in a statement published on its website, saying only that the executive died "following a severe illness" and making no mention of a fall.

"We deeply regret to announce that Ravil Maganov, Chairman of PJSC LUKOIL Board of Directors, passed away following a severe illness," the statement read. "Ravil Maganov immensely contributed to the development of not only the Company, but of the entire Russian oil and gas sector."

Russia's second largest oil company made headlines in early March after speaking out against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"The Board of Directors of LUKOIL expresses herewith its deepest concerns about the tragic events in Ukraine. Calling for the soonest termination of the armed conflict, we express our sincere empathy for all victims, who are affected by this tragedy," reads a statement from the board of directors to shareholders, staff and customers published March 3.

"We strongly support a lasting ceasefire and a settlement of problems through serious negotiations and diplomacy," added the statement.

Lukoil produces more than 2% of the world's crude oil and employs more than 100,000 people.

RIA Novosti quoted a law enforcement source who said the businessman "most likely committed suicide."

"Yes, we can confirm the fact [of death]. Investigating authorities are working on the spot to establish the causes of the incident," the source said, according to RIA.

At least five prominent Russian businessmen have reportedly died by suicide since late January, according to previous CNN reporting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 01, 2022, 08:52:49 AM
I thought I saw a headline this morning that Putin has fired his defense minister?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 01, 2022, 09:00:00 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 01, 2022, 08:52:49 AM
I thought I saw a headline this morning that Putin has fired his defense minister?

That happened a few days ago.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/29/putin-sidelines-defence-minister-kyiv-launches-counter-offensive/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11156383/Russias-defence-minister-Sergei-Shoigu-lined-Putin-ridiculed-soldiers.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 01, 2022, 09:01:51 AM
 :o  In Putin's Russia, you no commit suicide, suicide commits YOU.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 01, 2022, 09:06:42 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 01, 2022, 08:09:12 AM
At least five prominent Russian businessmen have reportedly died by suicide since late January, according to previous CNN reporting.[/b]

Suicide à la Rommel.

Quote from: MengJiao on September 01, 2022, 08:09:12 AM
died "following a severe illness".

Allergic to concrete sidewalks ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 01, 2022, 09:11:18 AM
It's not the fall that kills you....  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 01, 2022, 09:49:46 AM
ah...the daily defenestration... >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 01, 2022, 05:31:22 PM
Counterattack seems to be going well.  I saw some reports that the Ukrainians gained some local air superiority over Kherson thanks to the withdrawal from Crimean airbases and the Ukrainian army putting AA batteries close to the front.

I really can't wait for the Sabaton album that's writing itself right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: jamus34 on September 01, 2022, 05:49:54 PM
Quote

I really can't wait for the Sabaton album that's writing itself right now.

+1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 01, 2022, 08:02:51 PM
^+2 hahaha  ;D

There's at least two Killing Joke albums within all this too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 01, 2022, 11:07:42 PM
I guess this can hold us till now..

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 02, 2022, 03:35:08 PM
Enforcer's back on the air! Last night's mega-catchup news roundup:



And the summary episode this morning:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 02, 2022, 06:18:48 PM
The defenstrated individuals and the country's leadership, held/hold the same views.
"So far, so good."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 03, 2022, 03:11:01 AM
this is what is thought to be russian soviet forces in the Kherson:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbrWl9aWQAMeZcd?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 03, 2022, 01:44:59 PM
Your reverse strikethru: I saw it!  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 03, 2022, 01:45:24 PM
Meanwhile, last night's Enforcer news digest:



"Remember, kids, smoking kills! -- and the favorite Russian cigarettes, are 'Lucky Strikes'!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 03, 2022, 03:19:24 PM
Pulled up a youtube video where a spokesman from the Russian MOD was making some outrageous claims about Russian successes.

Youtube paired it with a commercial for Disney's new "Pinocchio".

If that pairing was not on purpose, it was certainly karma...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 03, 2022, 03:23:17 PM
The Enforcer provides a short lecture on the concept of troop density in modern warfare, exemplified by Uks vs Orcs:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 03, 2022, 03:38:48 PM
Did someone say Putinocchio?

(https://s3-eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/cartoons-s3/styles/product_detail_image/s3/cartoons/2018/05/innocent_pinocchio_putin___marian_kamensky.jpg?itok=YbYAKJ3B)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 03, 2022, 06:46:50 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 03, 2022, 03:19:24 PM
Pulled up a youtube video where a spokesman from the Russian MOD was making some outrageous claims about Russian successes.

Youtube paired it with a commercial for Disney's new "Pinocchio".

If that pairing was not on purpose, it was certainly karma...

  From Bang/Showbiz (some source eh?)....anyway, if the Russians were doing well they would not keep threatening to go nuclear:



The 56-year-old politician has served as deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia since 2020 and alleged that Western countries are "taking advantage of the military conflict" in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an ongoing invasion of its neighbouring country back in February.

He said: "Allies attempting to provoke Russia [are playing] a chess game with death. The West would like to take advantage of the military conflict in Ukraine to push our country to a new twist of disintegration, do everything to paralyze Russia's state institutions and deprive the country of efficient controls, as happened in 1991."

Dmitry - who also served as president of Russia between 2008 and 2012 and prime minister of Russia between 2012 and 2020 - went on to describe attempts to "break up" the tension as the "dirty dreams of Anglo Saxon perverts" and warned that trying to "shred" the country into pieces would be "very dangerous."

In a piece published a post on his messaging app channel, he added: "Those are the dirty dreams of the Anglo-Saxon perverts, who go to sleep with a secret thought about the breakup of our state, thinking about how to shred us into pieces, cut us into small bits. Such attempts are very dangerous and mustn't be underestimated. Those dreamers ignore a simple axiom: a forceful disintegration of a nuclear power is always a chess game with death, in which it's known precisely when the check and mate comes: doomsday for mankind."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 03, 2022, 06:49:01 PM
oh they're going nuclear again.... must be that time of the week again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 03, 2022, 07:34:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 03, 2022, 06:49:01 PM
oh they're going nuclear again.... must be that time of the week again.

It seems the political entertainers on Russian talking head TV seem to fetishize nuking Britain. Just seems strange that I hear more "nuke the UK" vs. "nuke the USA."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 03, 2022, 07:39:16 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 03, 2022, 07:34:13 PM
It seems the political entertainers on Russian talking head TV seem to fetishize nuking Britain. Just seems strange that I hear more "nuke the UK" vs. "nuke the USA."

Way older historical beefs I would guess.

Even when they were allies they didn't like each other.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 03, 2022, 07:59:26 PM
Charge of the nuclear brigade?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 03, 2022, 08:15:17 PM
I looked into the statement....yep  "Anglo-Saxons". 

That's the big Russian driving conspiracy theory right now.  Nikolai Patrushev, Putin's intelligence and others have made official policy that the world's issues go back to an Anglo-Saxon conspiracy that is being organized for their own domination of the world.  The Anglo-Saxons are, essentially, barbarians that have manipulated Germany and made the US their instrument for their vile quest for world domination. 

Of course the center of his axis of evil is London.  Ukraine is their latest target to install an Anglo-Saxon dominated pro-Nazi regime.

Pretty much just take 30's anti-Jewish rhetoric and replace it with Anglo Saxons.  Putin has grown to buy into this pretty heavily.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 04, 2022, 03:10:28 AM
Let us be honest here, who among us would not love to learn "what airdefence doing"? Enlist now  \m/

https://twitter.com/SlavaUk30722777/status/1566126869761896448
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 04, 2022, 02:57:26 PM


And then the usual news digest:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 05, 2022, 01:08:39 PM
Last night's 24 hour news digest:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 05, 2022, 01:25:45 PM
Given the tone of this guy's content, wouldn't the Russians have lost the war within about two weeks?  I'll freely admit to not watching them, but the headlines...  Sheesh!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 05, 2022, 02:05:39 PM
And who watches a 2+ hour show every day? Especially when there's no hot women in it!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 05, 2022, 02:27:04 PM
The shows are sometimes more like 10 minutes, but the digests tend to run 1.5 hours. (Minus a 12 minute countdown in front.) The rest of the time are the hosts discussing questions from the chat.

I tend to watch (or listen to) them on 2x speed and skip out when Zelensky's speech for the day starts.

I've noted the clickbaity titles, before, too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 05, 2022, 02:34:16 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 05, 2022, 01:25:45 PM
Given the tone of this guy's content, wouldn't the Russians have lost the war within about two weeks?  I'll freely admit to not watching them, but the headlines...  Sheesh!

  Didn't they already lose it in the first few hours?  Last February?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 05, 2022, 02:40:36 PM
Haha, I was about to say.  I half expect the next Enforcer video to be titled "Ukrainians reach Red Square" and it be about some Uk protesters getting arrested at the Kremlin. 

Still I do sometimes watch his videos. 

I like Denys Davydov's videos myself.  He also does some clickbait titles but he's an easy digest while cooking dinner.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on September 05, 2022, 08:32:25 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 05, 2022, 02:05:39 PM
And who watches a 2+ hour show every day? Especially when there's no hot women in it!

While not a "visual," thing, long-form podcasts are my jam and no one does them like Dan Carlin.  2+ hours in one chapter of a multi-part series?  Yes, please!

(Drachinfel's YouTube stuff - when he's doing naval deep dives - is my next go-to for such things)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 05, 2022, 08:43:10 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 05, 2022, 02:40:36 PM
I like Denys Davydov's videos myself.  He also does some clickbait titles but he's an easy digest while cooking dinner.

Yep, i watch him, too!  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 06, 2022, 09:38:32 AM
Russia is having to buy artillery shells from North Korea...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-resorting-to-weapons-from-north-korea-indicates-artillery-shortage/ar-AA11vqn4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=395a0d55566944f7ba6bc484ce3fc8f0 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-resorting-to-weapons-from-north-korea-indicates-artillery-shortage/ar-AA11vqn4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=395a0d55566944f7ba6bc484ce3fc8f0)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 06, 2022, 09:54:47 AM
^ So, we can expect some other things to be blowing up their tubes, eventually!  >:D

But it doesn't really matter, because they were already running low on replacement gun barrels for their artillery. I suspect they're running low on some other less obvious things to shoot those shells with, too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 06, 2022, 10:00:29 AM
Meanwhile, the puppet governor of Kherson region has decided to "pause" the coming referendum for "obvious" "practical reasons":

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-surprise-announcement-in-kherson-as-ukraine-advances/ar-AA11uGTO?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=0f6cb93fd2dc4d928d0f05ddc698bfad

Ukraine is also opening up negotiations to sell electricity to Germany from its nuclear reactors this winter.  :bd:

(The phrasing of their offer is also clearly a light jab at Germany for previously greening out their reactors. ;) )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 06, 2022, 10:31:13 AM
Will Russia target other Ukrainian reactors now before they can produce electricity for Germany?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 06, 2022, 11:09:14 AM
I'm at work, but I'm sure someone can find a map plotting the location of Uk nuk reaks.  :coolsmiley:

I think it's a reasonable bet Russia, especially in a downward losing spiral, would do something this vengeful just to screw over everyone. Still, nuclear plants are pretty hard targets: they might be able to wreck outflow wiring stations and management offices and places like that, for a temporary problem; but unless they put boots on the ground who know how to seriously scotch a plant from the inside, I'm a little doubtful they can permanently zorch a reactor site.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 06, 2022, 11:19:48 AM
Russia's short on arty shells? I'm sure the Uks would be happy to give them some.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 06, 2022, 02:08:05 PM
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-ukraine-war-recruits-volunteers-long-vacations-peskov-1740159

Putin Promises Russian War Recruits Long Vacations if They Fight for Him

... I hear Hell is a little hot for vacationing this time of year  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 06, 2022, 05:27:33 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 06, 2022, 02:08:05 PM
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-ukraine-war-recruits-volunteers-long-vacations-peskov-1740159

Putin Promises Russian War Recruits Long Vacations if They Fight for Him

... I hear Hell is a little hot for vacationing this time of year  >:D

Currently so is Crimea...  :D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 06, 2022, 05:29:07 PM
its a stupid thing to be annoyed about within the context of this was but:
why do so many fucking places in the Ukraine have to have the same friking name!?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 06, 2022, 05:32:50 PM
Im to tired to post maps but things are looking mightly interesting all over.
main attack south and wait for the commies to start moving things and then start hitting the north 6 days later.
I'm going to take it face value that the maps and corrections in the front lines are at least 3 to 4 days old.
please let it be the find out part of fuck around.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 06, 2022, 06:20:25 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 06, 2022, 09:38:32 AM
Russia is having to buy artillery shells from North Korea...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-resorting-to-weapons-from-north-korea-indicates-artillery-shortage/ar-AA11vqn4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=395a0d55566944f7ba6bc484ce3fc8f0 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-resorting-to-weapons-from-north-korea-indicates-artillery-shortage/ar-AA11vqn4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=395a0d55566944f7ba6bc484ce3fc8f0)
QuoteWhile Beijing is an ally of Moscow and has stepped up its imports of Russian oil, U.S. officials said that China has so far respected export controls aimed at Russia's military and has not tried to sell military hardware or components, The New York Times reported.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, had warned China in March that if its computer chip maker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, or other companies, violated sanctions, the U.S. would effectively shut down those businesses by cutting off their access to the American technology they need.

This is conjecture but China may be doing an end run around sanctions against Russia.   We shall see if N. Korea makes a large purchase of artillery ammunition.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on September 06, 2022, 08:23:17 PM
Or if the Norks start sending boatloads of ICs to Russia with the TI or Micron or SMIC logos crossed out and 'Made in the DPRK' written in with silver sharpie.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 06, 2022, 10:06:28 PM
Or if China decides to lease/loan the shells to Russia, at 7% to be paid fully in 15 years... hey, that isn't SELLING them shells! The "One Belt One Road" plan takes a new tweeeest!  ^-^

(But yeah, my real bet is more like Norks as a proxy.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 06, 2022, 10:15:35 PM
"Buy, 'Little Kim' brand Artillery Shells. They used to be fat around the middle but now they're thin. But they are still short and ugly".  ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 06, 2022, 10:18:45 PM
I honestly dont know through osint if russia has enough barrels to used nork ammo.
either way, I dont see it working out for a lot of gun crews.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 07, 2022, 07:02:57 AM
Edit broken link  :tickedoff:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 07, 2022, 07:24:48 AM
^ Your image (currently) doesn't show up for some reason, Cross, so I'm forced to assume it features Russians staring blankly at Korean instructions on what to do with arty shells while HIMARS pick them off one by one in the background.  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 07, 2022, 07:32:35 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 07, 2022, 07:24:48 AM
^ Your image (currently) doesn't show up for some reason, Cross, so I'm forced to assume it features Russians staring blankly at Korean instructions on what to do with arty shells while HIMARS pick them off one by one in the background.  >:D

I also don't see an image but it looks like the source is Finnish.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on September 07, 2022, 07:32:59 AM
Reports of a new symbol on Russian tanks.  Doesn't look exactly like the Deathly Hallows to me, but similar...

Quote
A Ukrainian official in a Russian-occupied area of his country says Russian forces are transporting tanks marked with the Deathly Hallows symbol associated with the iconic Harry Potter series of fantasy novels and films.

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg1.etsystatic.com%2F000%2F0%2F6016060%2Fil_fullxfull.254854299.jpg&hash=cb6cb6d2bce5916fb1ee427e86b3af4d2436102b)

https://www.newsweek.com/harry-potter-symbol-adorns-russian-tanks-near-mariupol-ukraine-official-1740427

https://t.me/andriyshTime/2662?single
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 07, 2022, 08:17:24 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 06, 2022, 10:15:35 PM
"Buy, 'Little Kim' brand Artillery Shells. They used to be fat around the middle but now they're thin. But they are still short and ugly".  ;)

  Meanwhile, Ukraine takes some ground elsewhere:

Ukrainian forces seen in previously Russian-occupied town east of Kharkiv
From CNN's Vasco Cotovio, Gianluca Mezzofiore and Olga Voitovych

Ukrainian forces are advancing to the east of Ukraine's second-largest city Kharkiv, with recent social media footage geo-located by CNN showing soldiers in the town of Volokhiv-Yar, which was occupied by Russian forces until recently.

Important: If Ukrainian forces are able to consolidate their presence in Volokhiv-Yar, they could encircle Russian troops in the neighboring town of Balakliya.

CNN has geolocated videos showing Ukrainian forces on the outskirts of Balakliya. There are indications fighting is ongoing in the area.

Reports from both sides suggest Balakliya is being defended by militiamen from the so-called Luhansk People's Republic and soldiers from the Russian National Guard, who may now be facing a precarious situation.

CNN cannot independently verify their reports and neither Moscow nor Kyiv have commented on the Ukrainian offensive in the region.

On Tuesday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukrainian forces were closing in on Balakliya, likely driving Russian forces to the left bank of the Severskyi Donets and Serednya Balakliika rivers.

Videos showed Ukrainian soldiers in Verbivka, next to Balakliya.

"Multiple Russian sources acknowledged Ukrainian gains in Verbivka and reported that Russian forces demolished unspecified bridges in Balakliya's eastern environs to prevent further Ukrainian advances," the ISW said in its daily report on the war in Ukraine.
"The September 6 Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv was likely an opportunistic effort enabled by the redeployment of Russian forces away from the area to reinforce Russian positions against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast," the ISW added.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 07, 2022, 08:20:44 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 07, 2022, 08:17:24 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 06, 2022, 10:15:35 PM
"Buy, 'Little Kim' brand Artillery Shells. They used to be fat around the middle but now they're thin. But they are still short and ugly".  ;)

  Meanwhile, Ukraine takes some ground elsewhere:

Ukrainian forces seen in previously Russian-occupied town east of Kharkiv
From CNN's Vasco Cotovio, Gianluca Mezzofiore and Olga Voitovych

Ukrainian forces are advancing to the east of Ukraine's second-largest city Kharkiv, with recent social media footage geo-located by CNN showing soldiers in the town of Volokhiv-Yar, which was occupied by Russian forces until recently.

Important: If Ukrainian forces are able to consolidate their presence in Volokhiv-Yar, they could encircle Russian troops in the neighboring town of Balakliya.

CNN has geolocated videos showing Ukrainian forces on the outskirts of Balakliya. There are indications fighting is ongoing in the area.

Reports from both sides suggest Balakliya is being defended by militiamen from the so-called Luhansk People's Republic and soldiers from the Russian National Guard, who may now be facing a precarious situation.

CNN cannot independently verify their reports and neither Moscow nor Kyiv have commented on the Ukrainian offensive in the region.

On Tuesday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukrainian forces were closing in on Balakliya, likely driving Russian forces to the left bank of the Severskyi Donets and Serednya Balakliika rivers.

Videos showed Ukrainian soldiers in Verbivka, next to Balakliya.

"Multiple Russian sources acknowledged Ukrainian gains in Verbivka and reported that Russian forces demolished unspecified bridges in Balakliya's eastern environs to prevent further Ukrainian advances," the ISW said in its daily report on the war in Ukraine.
"The September 6 Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv was likely an opportunistic effort enabled by the redeployment of Russian forces away from the area to reinforce Russian positions against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast," the ISW added.



  But...no problem, says Putin and for that matter they didn't even start this war, okay?

As CNN repodrts:

Putin says Russia has "lost nothing" during its "special military operation" in Ukraine

Russia has "lost nothing" in its "special military operation" in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin claimed in his speech to open the Plenary Session at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Wednesday.

"We have lost nothing and are not going to lose anything. Our main gain is the strengthening of our sovereignty. We didn't start anything, in terms of military action, but are only trying to finish it," Putin told the audience.

Based on downgraded intelligence, the US believes that Russia is facing "severe" shortages of military personnel in Ukraine and is seeking new ways to reinforce its troop levels, two US officials told CNN last week.

In a statement Monday, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that it is now estimated that "over 25,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives" since the start of the war.

In late August, President Putin ordered Russia's military to increase the number of troops in Ukraine by 137,000, though it remains unclear how the Defense Ministry intends to reach that target.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 07, 2022, 08:31:30 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 07, 2022, 08:20:44 AM

"In late August, President Putin ordered Russia's military to increase the number of troops in Ukraine by 137,000, though it remains unclear how the Defense Ministry intends to reach that target."


Time to draft some 'lumberjacks'!?

But seriously, I was just wondering what the gulag (or equivalent) situation is, in Russia nowadays. One of their chief media propagandists was talking the other day, come to think of it, about how Soviet gulags were significantly better than Nazi concentration camps (presumably like the sort the Uks don't have.  ::) ) That was bizarre at the time, but if they're planning to draft prisoners (not simply promise them pay and freedom or mitigation to sign up 'voluntarily', which I recall happening much earlier this year), maybe the groundwork was being laid there...?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 07, 2022, 09:54:35 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 07, 2022, 07:24:48 AM
^ Your image (currently) doesn't show up for some reason, Cross, so I'm forced to assume it features Russians staring blankly at Korean instructions on what to do with arty shells while HIMARS pick them off one by one in the background.  >:D
Sorry, it worked with a preview but got broken then.

No HIMARS as it was not HIMARS o'clock yet at the time. Instead something to showcase the fickle loyalties of us humans  ::)

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=26039.0;attach=17300;image)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 07, 2022, 10:41:15 AM
So the Russians are Harry Potter fans now.  :o  Well they do live in a fantasy world, and Putin definitely looks , 'Slitherin' to me, so maybe there's something to it. Time to use the Wand of Hymars I say.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 07, 2022, 11:25:20 AM
Putin can honestly say that Russia has lost nothing since he is Russia (L'etat c'est moi) and he doesn't place any value on his people.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 07, 2022, 12:16:13 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 07, 2022, 11:25:20 AM
Putin can honestly say that Russia has lost nothing since he is Russia (L'etat c'est moi) and he doesn't place any value on his people.

In his mind only territory gained or lost matters.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 07, 2022, 01:31:54 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 07, 2022, 12:16:13 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 07, 2022, 11:25:20 AM
Putin can honestly say that Russia has lost nothing since he is Russia (L'etat c'est moi) and he doesn't place any value on his people.

In his mind only territory gained or lost matters.

  Well still it is odd that he wants to say he didn't start the war.  That one seems kind of odd even for him.  Did the war begin when the Mongols wiped out Bagdad or something?  You know ancient
Russia was world power etc. etc. etc.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2022, 02:37:37 PM
well it seems the soviets are getting the shit kicked out of them right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2022, 02:40:42 PM
I mean, ffs, these forced conscripts are right out of WW2!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcEJWKtXkAQt2Vu?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2022, 02:44:04 PM
and this perfectly sums up this week for russia  :DD

https://twitter.com/i/status/1567596642966147077
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2022, 02:58:38 PM
and how close is close combat?!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1566180711958290433
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 07, 2022, 06:52:02 PM
Quote from: steve58 on September 07, 2022, 07:32:59 AM
Reports of a new symbol on Russian tanks.  Doesn't look exactly like the Deathly Hallows to me, but similar...

Quote
A Ukrainian official in a Russian-occupied area of his country says Russian forces are transporting tanks marked with the Deathly Hallows symbol associated with the iconic Harry Potter series of fantasy novels and films.

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg1.etsystatic.com%2F000%2F0%2F6016060%2Fil_fullxfull.254854299.jpg&hash=cb6cb6d2bce5916fb1ee427e86b3af4d2436102b)

https://www.newsweek.com/harry-potter-symbol-adorns-russian-tanks-near-mariupol-ukraine-official-1740427

https://t.me/andriyshTime/2662?single
If it was exactly like the symbol above, I would say the triangle might represent Mount Paektu, the spiritual birth place of Kim Jong-il, and juche, in the rondel with 'stick'.
However, as far as I can tell the symbol at the link is an 'upside' down triangle, with just a rondel in it, so believe what my beer and I say at your own peril.  Also, if N. Korean SPA had entrained and traversed Russia, US and UK int would be screaming again. 
Could anyone identify the "tanks" travelling by rail?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 07, 2022, 08:15:16 PM
The human side of me feels bad for those Russians. Make it stop.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2022, 08:51:01 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 07, 2022, 08:15:16 PM
Make it stop.

ok, easy

don't feel bad for a society, government and world view that has killed and oppressed tens of millions.
Ukrainian famines, Jewish oppression and deportation, Albanian genocide, war by rape and torture, careless civilian casualties.
need more?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 07, 2022, 09:15:36 PM
Not the society, those kids in that pic, the draftees. Look at them - pathetic :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2022, 09:41:41 PM
ah, you said russians.  fuck them!
the 2 guys in that pic are forced conscripts from either of the occupied "republics" or occupied territories.
they're at least going to live.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 07, 2022, 11:19:01 PM
My sense is that treating another group with such outright personal hostility is more likely to be part of the problem than a part of the solution.

I'll freely admit that I struggle with how to hold the Russian people, and the Russian nation, accountable for their collective sins over the last 50 years.  They must be opposed with conviction and with strength.  I'm just not sure that hatred, or even callous disregard, is part of the solution.

I certainly don't have all the answers.  I know that the Russians need to be stopped as a country.  But I do think there's a lot of wisdom to be found in Thich Nhat Hanh's famous work, Being Peace:  http://wtf.tw/ref/nhat_hanh_being_peace.pdf (http://wtf.tw/ref/nhat_hanh_being_peace.pdf).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 07, 2022, 11:35:42 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 07, 2022, 11:19:01 PM
My sense is that treating another group with such outright personal hostility is more likely to be part of the problem than a part of the solution.

I'll freely admit that I struggle with how to hold the Russian people, and the Russian nation, accountable for their collective sins over the last 50 years.  They must be opposed with conviction and with strength.  I'm just not sure that hatred, or even callous disregard, is part of the solution.

I certainly don't have all the answers.  I know that the Russians need to be stopped as a country.  But I do think there's a lot of wisdom to be found in Thich Nhat Hanh's famous work, Being Peace:  http://wtf.tw/ref/nhat_hanh_being_peace.pdf (http://wtf.tw/ref/nhat_hanh_being_peace.pdf).

Having spent the better part of my adult life studying Russia at points professionally or as a layman, I can't help but agree.

Nothing happens in a vacuum.  Russia is a product of, at this point, centuries of it geopolitical position, it's autarky, its social structure and a just an endless myriad of things that contribute to its identity as a state, and a culture and people that I think isn't......all that great. 

That doesn't reflect on all its people.  That doesn't reflect on every one of the soldiers, every "orc" getting ground down and killed in Ukraine. 

I mean, it's telling that my very close friend and professor of Russian history that I oft mention has a Ukraine flag on the back of her car.

I think Russia's current objectives are...to me...a force of evil in the world.  I actively want their defeat.  I hope for it to be decisive. 

But I also, the academic and historian in me understand the long, long path that led Russia and its people to this, and it's complicated.  They're a deeply paranoid and untrustworthily nation and people, because they think the rest of the world is out to get them.  And there are times they have been right.   It's not a point of view without reason.

Anyway, that's my rambling of mixed feelings.  I can't help but cheer at Russian defeats, but like Gus the human side comes in on me a lot.  I love Russian history and I have a deep interest in their culture.  I know not every Russian is the bad guy too, even the ones being shoved in front of bullets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2022, 11:53:51 PM
I don't disagree with what either of you are saying.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 08, 2022, 12:01:20 AM
Some interesting reporting on the difficulty Ukraine is having with its offensive in the south.

I think this is just telling us what we all know: offense is always harder than defense.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wounded-ukrainian-soldiers-reveal-steep-toll-of-kherson-offensive/ar-AA11xWeH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7e440ff53bc4471fb0263663380678ad (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wounded-ukrainian-soldiers-reveal-steep-toll-of-kherson-offensive/ar-AA11xWeH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7e440ff53bc4471fb0263663380678ad)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 12:24:00 AM
from everything I've been seeing that article is 100% bullshit ru propaganda.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 08, 2022, 01:18:02 AM
There'll be a major counter attack to liberate Kherson, they said. Openly. Again and again. But it did not start yet. Orcs reinforced the area with their elite units in preparation. Still no counter attack. There will be though, they said.

Then, they bombed all the bridges, the Orc reinforcements got stuck, and they attacked in Donbas instead, where the occupiers are a few.

I did not see this coming, while it all played out openly in front of us.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 08, 2022, 01:24:23 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2022, 02:40:42 PM
I mean, ffs, these forced conscripts are right out of WW2!

That's a genuine WW2 veshmeshok (sp?) ruck sack innit? Sheesh.

Edit go get yours (https://www.varusteleka.com/en/product/soviet-veshmeshok-rucksack-surplus/63630)!

(https://www.varusteleka.com/pictures/thumbs500a/4664761963137a1595.jpg)

QuotePretty as a hatful of kittens, the Soviet "Veshmeshok" rucksack is quite likely the best carrying sack in recent history. The black version is the hallowed and feared navy model!

The same kind of sacks were probably used during the Napoleonic wars. However, at some point during or after WW2, these were modernized with four side straps for blankets/shelter halves/greatcoats. Even today it sees action in the modern Russian army. These were still made in the 90s, and if you're lucky, you'll get one of these recently manufactured pieces of ancient history. The dates on the sacks we get range mostly from the 50s to the 80s. No, we will not rummage through the wares for the date of your choice.

The Veshmeshok is a very simple, very rough, and very durable potato-sack type carrying solution. The material is treated to resist water and quite often actually does. The sack is closed with a tie-string and its own shoulder straps. This system prevents pick-pockets from going through the contents when you're wearing it. Amazing!

These rucksacks have one external pouch, straps for attaching a greatcoat or blanket roll, and a name tag holder. Most WWII models were made without these, so remove all excess stuff for that extra special "fighting the fascists"-feeling. Do note that you'll leave holes where the stitching was any stronger.

Edit2 ok so they were manufactured into 90s. Ok. Gotta love the product description though!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 09:56:42 AM
things are on the move all over!  <:-)
yesterday:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcIlDoJWQAcS0xw?format=jpg&name=large)
today:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcIcD1HXgAM4jtj?format=jpg&name=large)
photo taken outside Shevchenko:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcJCF8JXwAk5mMH?format=jpg&name=medium)

and it seems they're just continuing to push east.

this is from the Kherson region:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1567883145935994881

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 08, 2022, 10:05:31 AM
Awesome.

Looks like several potential encirclements coming.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 10:06:02 AM
 :bd:

US State Dept email says the $675 million in PDA-20 will include 1,000x 155mm Remote Anti-Armor Mine System projectiles. Containing 9x scatterable mines each, RAAMS rounds are cluster weapons but not banned by the Cluster Munitions Convention or the Anti-Personnel Landmine Treaty.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 10:07:39 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 08, 2022, 10:05:31 AM
Awesome.

Looks like several potential encirclements coming.

the last few days have had some of the most gruesome footage of the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 08, 2022, 10:24:00 AM
Yeah, I've been seeing that.  A lot of it on both sides. 

They're fully stuck in now. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 11:16:20 AM
did you catch the russian video of all the dead UK troops and at the end they all get up because the dipshit didnt stop rolling footage?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 11:19:49 AM
still LOVE this!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcJM7bGX0AE3aYu?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 08, 2022, 11:33:24 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 11:16:20 AM
did you catch the russian video of all the dead UK troops and at the end they all get up because the dipshit didnt stop rolling footage?

I didn't.  I'll have to dig for it, that sound hilarious.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 08, 2022, 11:47:54 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 08, 2022, 11:33:24 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 11:16:20 AM
did you catch the russian video of all the dead UK troops and at the end they all get up because the dipshit didnt stop rolling footage?

I didn't.  I'll have to dig for it, that sound hilarious.

I don't think I've seen that yet, but I saw an almost equally hilarious bs Russian video of dead Uks (supposedly) who supposedly washed up on shore (river or coast, don't recall, probably river) with crisp US $100 being pulled out of their wallets. Which should have been watersoaked. The 'bodies' were lying around like actors 'playing dead' on stage, too, the way you're taught to do so for long stage scenes so you can rest carefully while breathing unseen.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 08, 2022, 12:15:00 PM
Been on vacation since the 25th of August so I had no access to the forum until today.

A lot has changed since the 25th. You all should go back and read what was said.

I think the Ukraine has surprised a lot of us with its new two front war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 08, 2022, 12:29:31 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 08, 2022, 12:15:00 PM
I think the Ukraine has surprised a lot of us with its new two front war.

It's impressive. 

We all knew it had to come though.  If their goal was to take back territory, the only way they were going to do it was taking the fight to the Russians. 

I am shocked they've accomplished two fronts on their attack, but I think that the Kharkiv counteroffensive is one of opportunity more than planning. 

The Russians have been putting everything they can into supporting the 49th Army on the wrong side of the Dniper.  They know if they collapse there, a large portion of the 49th isn't coming home and that can't be hidden.   What we've seen is that the forces around Kharkiv have largely been bolstered by conscripts and 3rd line garrison forces, so why not go at them?  They're performing about how we'd expect them to. 

I think at this point the lesson is to never underestimate the Ukrainians.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 08, 2022, 12:44:12 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2022, 02:37:37 PM
well it seems the soviets are getting the shit kicked out of them right now.
Damn straight!

If they pull it off, the Ukraine will be able to roll the orcs up and kick their asses back to the borders in the north.... I wonder if the Soviets can supply the Crimea by sea?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 08, 2022, 12:46:43 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 08, 2022, 12:44:12 PM
I wonder if the Soviets can supply the Crimea by sea?

I wonder if the Soviets can supply anything by any method at this point!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 08, 2022, 12:49:28 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 08, 2022, 12:29:31 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 08, 2022, 12:15:00 PM
I think the Ukraine has surprised a lot of us with its new two front war.

It's impressive. 

We all knew it had to come though.  If their goal was to take back territory, the only way they were going to do it was taking the fight to the Russians. 

I am shocked they've accomplished two fronts on their attack, but I think that the Kharkiv counteroffensive is one of opportunity more than planning. 

I think at this point the lesson is to never underestimate the Ukrainians.

That's a lot more operational flexibility on the UAF's part than what the Soviets can handle apparently.

Supposedly the tip of the spear for this 40-50 km push was 15 tanks??? Geebus.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 08, 2022, 12:56:54 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 11:16:20 AM
did you catch the russian video of all the dead UK troops and at the end they all get up because the dipshit didnt stop rolling footage?

One thing that's surprising to me is how utterly the Russians have lost "the social media theater" of the Ukraine War.  The Russians basically owned every second of the Social Media Theater during the US 2020 Presidential Election campaign.  They couldn't have scripted either side's actions (or the proliferation of inflammatory information and misinformation on both sides) any better.

But the Internet is now utterly populated by video clips glorifying the Ukrainian resistance and (as near as I can tell accurately) lionizing the Ukrainian fighters.  All we see from Russia on the social media front new is Keystone Kops.  For all I know, half of those sloppily produced videos are being produced by Ukrainian-sympathetic groups to ridicule the Russians.  We live in The Deep Fake Era, and the Internet's only reliable quality filter is "Does it make for a compelling audience experience?"

I'm not saying that all the pro-Ukrainian stuff is made up.  I just can't believe how the Russians were basically able to define the US Presidential election in the eyes of most US voters in both parties, but they can't find their way out of a wet cardboard box in Ukraine.

Apologies if this post turns the thread in any way political.  I'm happy to delete any mentions to the US Presidential election if anybody wants me to.  This thread is too valuable to risk spoiling it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 01:07:04 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 08, 2022, 12:44:12 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2022, 02:37:37 PM
well it seems the soviets are getting the shit kicked out of them right now.
Damn straight!

If they pull it off, the Ukraine will be able to roll the orcs up and kick their asses back to the borders in the north.... I wonder if the Soviets can supply the Crimea by sea?

not with Harpoons and a resurgent UKAF.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 01:09:17 PM
all those tasty rail lines......   :dreamer:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcJsi8tWYAYLw7j?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 08, 2022, 01:14:54 PM
I have no sense how far behind enemy lines a railroad line or station had to be before artillery made it effectively useless.  But there's no question that advances like this can really disrupt supply lines.

It sounds like there is some encouraging (if still somewhat vague and speculative info) coming out on recent Ukrainian advances.  We'll see if that continues, or if we start getting confirmations from more authoritative sources (the UK Ministry of Defense seems to be leading other governments to the punch by 24-48 hours in terms of announcing "good news", but the US DoD has been surprisingly specific on a number of occasions as well).  But the good news from other sources seems to be accelerating.

Yesterday, I heard an analyst on FoxNews say something to the effect of, "We've seen some tactical developments that should be encouraging to any supporter of Ukraine.  But at the operational level, things still favor the Russians.  They're largely fighting where the Russians want to, the way they want to (i.e., the Ukrainians attacking entrenched Russian positions), when they want to."

We can hope that these tactical gains translate into something more.  Every success at the operational level starts with success at the tactical level.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 01:22:58 PM
for reference, that push in the middle is roughly 50km deep from the start line.
hopefully its deep the wider now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 02:07:02 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1567814838172221440
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 08, 2022, 02:13:49 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 08, 2022, 12:56:54 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2022, 11:16:20 AM
did you catch the russian video of all the dead UK troops and at the end they all get up because the dipshit didnt stop rolling footage?

One thing that's surprising to me is how utterly the Russians have lost "the social media theater" of the Ukraine War.  The Russians basically owned every second of the Social Media Theater during the US 2020 Presidential Election campaign.  They couldn't have scripted either side's actions (or the proliferation of inflammatory information and misinformation on both sides) any better.

But the Internet is now utterly populated by video clips glorifying the Ukrainian resistance and (as near as I can tell accurately) lionizing the Ukrainian fighters.  All we see from Russia on the social media front new is Keystone Kops.  For all I know, half of those sloppily produced videos are being produced by Ukrainian-sympathetic groups to ridicule the Russians.  We live in The Deep Fake Era, and the Internet's only reliable quality filter is "Does it make for a compelling audience experience?"

I'm not saying that all the pro-Ukrainian stuff is made up.  I just can't believe how the Russians were basically able to define the US Presidential election in the eyes of most US voters in both parties, but they can't find their way out of a wet cardboard box in Ukraine.

Apologies if this post turns the thread in any way political.  I'm happy to delete any mentions to the US Presidential election if anybody wants me to.  This thread is too valuable to risk spoiling it.

Considering how strangely the war has gone for the Russians, I'm surprised they have any credibility left about anything at all.  The thing about media theatrics is that reality has some kind of
round-about impact eventually even on social media (or so it seems to me...I just read the New York Times, Ars Technica and CNN, so maybe I have no idea what's what in social media), so I would guess that if they had done even remotely well militarily, they might have done better on social media, but get wrecked 100 times and eventually people get the message that you aren't doing so well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 08, 2022, 02:18:24 PM
I haven't seen a penetration that deep and wide since John Holmes and Marilyn Chambers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 08, 2022, 02:30:53 PM
Oh, were they in a war at some point?  ::)  Kind of looks like the Kursk bulge doesn't it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 08, 2022, 02:50:44 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 08, 2022, 05:40:11 PM
A few details that came in about the Kharkiv offensive.

Taking Balakliia was decisive, as that was the primary axis through which the 20,000 troops in Izuim were getting their supply.  Their only other route is the Avtoshlyakh bridge which is now under HIMARS attack. 

This effectively cut off the Russian forces in Izuim.  With their backs to the river they are for all intents and purposes pocketed. 

The main thrust is now on the outskirts of the Russian regional HQ in Kupyansk, and the Russian have evacuated their HQ back towards the Russian border. 

If Kupyansk falls, well, you can read a map.  There's no line of retreat for the Russian forces in Izuim without a massive ferry operation that's well within range of Ukrainian artillery.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 08, 2022, 06:30:36 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 08, 2022, 05:40:11 PM
A few details that came in about the Kharkiv offensive.

Taking Balakliia was decisive, as that was the primary axis through which the 20,000 troops in Izuim were getting their supply.  Their only other route is the Avtoshlyakh bridge which is now under HIMARS attack. 

This effectively cut off the Russian forces in Izuim.  With their backs to the river they are for all intents and purposes pocketed. 

The main thrust is now on the outskirts of the Russian regional HQ in Kupyansk, and the Russian have evacuated their HQ back towards the Russian border. 

If Kupyansk falls, well, you can read a map.  There's no line of retreat for the Russian forces in Izuim without a massive ferry operation that's well within range of Ukrainian artillery.

That's pretty shocking.  Quite a cunning blow and all the disinformation about "wargaming a limited offensive" etc. etc. seems to have worked well so far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on September 08, 2022, 07:50:21 PM
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1568035564452024321?s=20&t=y-nd9k8e8tszP0zJnJ5i7w (https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1568035564452024321?s=20&t=y-nd9k8e8tszP0zJnJ5i7w)

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1568036030527279104?s=20&t=y-nd9k8e8tszP0zJnJ5i7w (https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1568036030527279104?s=20&t=y-nd9k8e8tszP0zJnJ5i7w)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 01:37:24 AM
And the CNBC link for those looking for an "official" source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/08/ukraine-launches-counterattack-in-kharkiv-after-russians-redeployed-south.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 09, 2022, 05:19:02 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 01:37:24 AM
And the CNBC link for those looking for an "official" source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/08/ukraine-launches-counterattack-in-kharkiv-after-russians-redeployed-south.html
To quenqh my thirst for official views, I've started my days the past months by first checking the latest UK Min of Defence update on Ukraine. (Initially, the very first thing I checked if Zelenskiy is still alive)

Here's today:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1568161247589195776

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcM6WE1WYAE6mzd?format=jpg&name=medium)

Yesterday:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcHIo45XoAICPu9?format=jpg&name=medium)



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 09, 2022, 07:41:28 AM
I suppose it's too much to hope that White Russia is toying with the idea of regaining territory taken by Russian forces and securing their borders...  :-"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 09, 2022, 08:20:49 AM
In February, wasn't Belorussia preparing to ally with Russia and partner with the invasion of Ukraine, offensively? Did I miss something? What happened that Belorussia just became a staging area for Russia and little else?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 09, 2022, 08:52:12 AM

QuoteSome tanks move but don't shoot, while others shoot but don't move

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1568223787874918402

Everyone who's served can indeed confirm this is just plain normal - there's even an abbreviation for this - and on average, things are just fine. As reported  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 09, 2022, 08:54:18 AM
Another one! (sorry)

QuoteBREAKING: Russian army.

https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1568224936325713920

:smitten:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2022, 09:34:32 AM
so this is the conservative map as of now:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcNrUURWQAIVR4z?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2022, 09:39:34 AM
pro russian sourced map:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcNrUmhWAAAC2dq?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 09, 2022, 10:11:33 AM
Hm: the pro-Russian map is less conservative! (Or rather, more conservative the other way.) Not what I expected from orc propaganda. ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 09, 2022, 10:16:02 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 09, 2022, 10:11:33 AM
Hm: the pro-Russian map is less conservative! (Or rather, more conservative the other way.) Not what I expected from orc propaganda. ;)

  They do show lots of Russian activity -- airstrikes, helicopters and the Ukrainian action is labeled "recon/sabatage"...plus they still have troops or something cut off in Balayirtria.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 09, 2022, 01:52:12 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 09, 2022, 10:11:33 AM
Hm: the pro-Russian map is less conservative! (Or rather, more conservative the other way.) Not what I expected from orc propaganda. ;)

Right now there's a total breakdown in the Russian propaganda machine vis a vis the Kharkiv offensive. 

It was so sudden and the surprise so complete that Russian milbloggers aren't getting spin from the MoD.

ISW had this assessment...

1. The Russian MoD struggles to address unexpected Ukrainian operations because its information strategy relies on portraying the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an easy and faultless operation. This promotes a lack of situational awareness within the Kremlin and the Russian media space.

2. The Russian MoD needs a significant amount of time to develop and spread false narratives in the Russian information space. The Kremlin and Russian MoD successfully did so prior to the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, and milbloggers largely followed the Kremlin's line.

3. The Russian MoD failed to have a narrative ready for Ukrainian operations in Kharkiv Oblast.

4. Milbloggers will share and promote footage and imagery of fighting unfavorable to Russian forces that will dominate coverage in the Russian information space if the Russian MoD does not provide its own media.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2022, 02:19:21 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcO266FXoAEiKNG?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 09, 2022, 03:06:24 PM
Not getting too excited yet, but some reports with photographs that Ukrainian forces are already in Kapitolovka and Oskol.

If true that'd be an unfathomably fast advance down the river and Izium is almost surrounded.  I'm taking that with a huge grain of salt but the rumors last night that the Ukrainians had reached the Oskil river proved to be true this morning.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 09, 2022, 04:49:51 PM
There are reliable bloggers and podcasters out there with great up-to-date information that they pull from multiple sources that is accurate most of the time.

For instance - here is unconfirmed information that this was an attack of opportunity with limited goals that was wildly successful, one that the UAF quickly reinforced with units on hand... including foreign fighter units. What's not clear is whether the contingency was planned for/anticipated?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2022, 05:02:56 PM
I dont see the reason for surprise.  this is exactly what soviet, and later, NATO strategy look for to exploit.
the distances here are relatively short in the grand scheme of things, we just havent seen much movement in months so they look like more massive maneuvers.  this isnt to take away the awesome success the UAF are having.
personally I'm waiting on where the third punch is going to land.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 09, 2022, 05:11:46 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2022, 05:02:56 PM
I dont see the reason for surprise.  this is exactly what soviet, and later, NATO strategy look for to exploit.
the distances here are relatively short in the grand scheme of things, we just havent seen much movement in months so they look like more massive maneuvers.  this isnt to take away the awesome success the UAF are having.
personally I'm waiting on where the third punch is going to land.

I think maybe the cut to communications and logistics lines is the third punch? All of a sudden Soviet units are going to be running short on a whole lot of things.

What is still amazing to me is the lack of willingness of the Soviet airforce to take big losses taking key Ukraine assets out. Maybe they can't locate them reliably enough to roll the dice, or maybe Ukraine air defence is that good?

Another thing Soviet POWs... thats going to be a problem very very soon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2022, 05:33:25 PM
cutting the GLOCs are already happening north of Izyum.
the UAF has already drawn in and stuck the russians around Kherson.
theyve also started a general rout north if Izyum.
if they have the resources Id launch something out of Zaporizhzhia to the south east.  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 09, 2022, 05:37:41 PM
Well, this video purports to show a new axis of attack towards Liman. 

That'd be a push to the eastern side of the river.

https://twitter.com/DachiOf/status/1568295709467631617?s=20&t=eXMDcjnv4DrJedl7jLTLHw
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2022, 05:39:38 PM
notice anything? 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcMmEsAXkAAdv2E?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 09, 2022, 05:56:37 PM
Other than m4s with acogs?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2022, 05:58:29 PM
that would be the thing!  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 09, 2022, 06:36:45 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2022, 05:39:38 PM
notice anything? 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcMmEsAXkAAdv2E?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Star, I thought maybe you were referring to the abundance of facial hair?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 09, 2022, 08:46:39 PM
So will real life imitate WITE2?
One little sliver of uncontrolled land and the forces disappear from the pocket!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcPsOw9WAAUOM3b?format=jpg&name=small
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 08:52:20 PM
Quote from: Con on September 09, 2022, 08:46:39 PM
So will real life imitate WITE2?
One little sliver of uncontrolled land and the forces disappear from the pocket!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcPsOw9WAAUOM3b?format=jpg&name=small

It looks to me like Ukraine is playing War in the East 3 while Russia is still stuck playing Panzer General on a wonky emulator.   :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 09, 2022, 09:02:44 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 08:52:20 PM
Quote from: Con on September 09, 2022, 08:46:39 PM
So will real life imitate WITE2?
One little sliver of uncontrolled land and the forces disappear from the pocket!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcPsOw9WAAUOM3b?format=jpg&name=small

It looks to me like Ukraine is playing War in the East 3 while Russia is still stuck playing Panzer General on a wonky emulator.   :notworthy:
I would liken it to World In Flames
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 09:15:37 PM
That's true, PG was a competent game for its time and not a disastrous hot mess.  World in Flames is what the Russians are playing.   :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 09, 2022, 09:47:59 PM
Wow...yeah...Forbes confirmed it...the Ukrainians pushed all the way down and took Oskil...

And the offensives towards Lyman are real..

They're about to completely pocket 20k Russians Hearts of Iron style.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 09, 2022, 09:48:42 PM
Will they take prisoners? I think I know the answer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 09:59:45 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 09, 2022, 09:48:42 PM
Will they take prisoners? I think I know the answer.

Yes.  Humane treatment of the enemy brings positive press and helps destabilize the lower ranks who've been told the mean Nazi Ukrainians will cut off their balls or whatever.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 09, 2022, 10:06:35 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 09:59:45 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 09, 2022, 09:48:42 PM
Will they take prisoners? I think I know the answer.

Yes.  Humane treatment of the enemy brings positive press and helps destabilize the lower ranks who've been told the mean Nazi Ukrainians will cut off their balls or whatever.
I for one would look the other way if they meted out the same punishment if they caught that castrating bastard
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 09, 2022, 10:11:04 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 09:59:45 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 09, 2022, 09:48:42 PM
Will they take prisoners? I think I know the answer.

Yes.  Humane treatment of the enemy brings positive press and helps destabilize the lower ranks who've been told the mean Nazi Ukrainians will cut off their balls or whatever.

And yet the realities of war and sustaining an offensive that looks like it's turning retreats into a route is also of consideration.

Also, take a look at some of the videos of the offensive rolling in and the public response.  It's WW2 style joy, but also a lot of anger by the civvies at the occupiers. 

Still, if they force a surrender of the Izium pocket, I imagine they'll conduct the vast majority as POW's to the west.  The photo ops of the marching columns will be epic propaganda in and of itself.

I imagine if the Russians have any sense left they're not doing a "no retreat" order and pulling their forces back quickly.   That doesn't quite fit with the reality this afternoon of the one propaganda shot they showed of an airlift of reinforcements in Mi-26's though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 09, 2022, 10:12:47 PM
I heard last night that an Orc Lieutenant-Colonel got nabbed as a POW, with footage of his downcast face being prepared for memes to come. ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 09, 2022, 10:20:54 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 09, 2022, 10:12:47 PM
I heard last night that an Orc Lieutenant-Colonel got nabbed as a POW, with footage of his downcast face being prepared for memes to come. ;)

He wasn't a Lt. Colonel. 

He put on a Lt. Colonels uniform so he wouldn't be recognized.  He was actually a Lt. General, Andrei Sychevoi, and the CinC of the entire Kharkiv theater.  The highest ranking officer captured in battle since WW2.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 10:32:47 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 09, 2022, 10:20:54 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 09, 2022, 10:12:47 PM
I heard last night that an Orc Lieutenant-Colonel got nabbed as a POW, with footage of his downcast face being prepared for memes to come. ;)

He wasn't a Lt. Colonel. 

He put on a Lt. Colonels uniform so he wouldn't be recognized.  He was actually a Lt. General, Andrei Sychevoi, and the CinC of the entire Kharkiv theater.  The highest ranking officer captured in battle since WW2.

Is this confirmed?  I've seen some scrutiny about his facial features and hairline, the latter of which I suppose could be attributed to the stress of waging a war of a madman's making.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 09, 2022, 10:41:27 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 10:32:47 PM
Is this confirmed?  I've seen some scrutiny about his facial features and hairline, the latter of which I suppose could be attributed to the stress of waging a war of a madman's making.

There was argument about it but it's been confirmed enough that western sources such as Newsweek have felt comfortable enough to say it. 

It makes sense.  The axis of attack was along the lines of Russian CnC and HQ lines, and it seems some Headquarters units were overrun. 

There's also been a very distinct lack of any coordinated defense around Izium and zero from the MoD on what's happening, even to Propaganda Milbloggers. 

They also evacuated the rest of their HQ assets back to the border soon after his capture...seems convenient. 

Considering the vast swaths of territory falling, the Russians pouring in reinforcements to a pocket they should be retreating from and news media outlets reporting it, I'd say yeah, it looks like it's him
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 09, 2022, 10:42:00 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 09, 2022, 10:20:54 PM
He was actually a Lt. General, Andrei Sychevoi, and the CinC of the entire Kharkiv theater.  The highest ranking officer captured in battle since WW2.

Ouch!

Quote from: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 10:32:47 PM
Is this confirmed?  I've seen some scrutiny about his facial features and hairline, the latter of which I suppose could be attributed to the stress of waging a war of a madman's making.

Your sly plug: I saw it.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 09, 2022, 11:10:00 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 09, 2022, 10:42:00 PM

Your sly plug: I saw it.  :coolsmiley:

:DD   O0   :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 12:33:24 AM
well it seems the Ukrainians took Kupyansk today!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1568464792909643778
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 12:39:31 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 12:33:24 AM
well it seems the Ukrainians took Kupyansk today!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1568464792909643778

LOL...lots of Russian media trying to scramble and say "videos of Kupyansk falling are just civilians filming the city."

Astounding accomplishment! 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 01:42:03 AM
Ukrainian soldiers in front of the Kupyansk City Administration building.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcRjrgZX0AI2B8P?format=jpg&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcRj9xiXwAAQQ2U?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 01:45:04 AM
Nothing to see here.  Cosplayers in airsoft. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 02:31:43 AM
at the very least they control the west side.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 02:54:48 AM
its gonna be a good day!  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 02:59:53 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcRy91gX0AAj-fT?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on September 10, 2022, 07:02:38 AM
^ Second verse, same as the first?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 08:37:44 AM
fucking hell, Izyum and Lyman both liberated between finally passing out last night and waking up.
:bd:

no point in posting maps that will be out of date in hours.  :pullhair:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 10, 2022, 08:57:12 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 08:37:44 AM
fucking hell, Izyum and Lyman both liberated between finally passing out last night and waking up.
:bd:

no point in posting maps that will be out of date in hours.  :pullhair:

This all started with analogies to Winter War. Lately, comparisons to second battle of Kharkiv. Here's hoping we're soon comparing this to Eastern Front of the Great War in Novemberish 1917.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 10, 2022, 10:02:32 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 12:39:31 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 12:33:24 AM
well it seems the Ukrainians took Kupyansk today!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1568464792909643778

LOL...lots of Russian media trying to scramble and say "videos of Kupyansk falling are just civilians filming the city."

Astounding accomplishment!

I saw one video which acknowledged they took the city, but spun it as a wry joke (paraphrasing from memory): "I didn't know Kupyansk was the capital of Russia! -- all the celebration, as if they just took a real Russian city. Fronts shift around a little back and forth, but it's what happens at the end that counts."

But it's their city, it matters to them! (Also Russia encouraged celebration when Russia took it, so...  ::) )

Looking forward to the day when they try to spin things as "Pfft, so much celebration over Crimea, as if they had conquered a truly Russian province! Come here and try that and see what happens!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 10, 2022, 10:06:22 AM
I saw on FOX this morning a report that Putin had arrested 5 of his top officials for conspiring to remove him from office. So, 5 more volunteers for the Izyum Front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 10, 2022, 10:29:19 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 10, 2022, 10:02:32 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 12:39:31 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 12:33:24 AM
well it seems the Ukrainians took Kupyansk today!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1568464792909643778

LOL...lots of Russian media trying to scramble and say "videos of Kupyansk falling are just civilians filming the city."

Astounding accomplishment!

I saw one video which acknowledged they took the city, but spun it as a wry joke (paraphrasing from memory): "I didn't know Kupyansk was the capital of Russia! -- all the celebration, as if they just took a real Russian city. Fronts shift around a little back and forth, but it's what happens at the end that counts."

But it's their city, it matters to them! (Also Russia encouraged celebration when Russia took it, so...  ::) )

Looking forward to the day when they try to spin things as "Pfft, so much celebration over Crimea, as if they had conquered a truly Russian province! Come here and try that and see what happens!"

  As usual, I find wry humor a bit puzzling.  Perhaps somebody should have reminded the humorist that Russia attacked Ukraine and that the point of the war is to get the Russians out of
Ukraine.  As far as I know, no one has the intention of taking Moscow except for the Russians who have been boondoggled by Putin's regime.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 11:18:40 AM
Well, the Russian MoD has finally spoken.   

With their strategic objectives in the Kharkiv region complete, they're redeploying all forces there south to support the stated goals of their Special Military Operation in Donetsk and Luhansk. 

Russia is victorious in Kharkiv!  Civilians in the area will be evacuated to Russian territory in this orderly redeployment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 11:39:15 AM
and here we are, where I get to say that the russian front is collapsing like a pornstars asshole.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 11:55:16 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 11:39:15 AM
and here we are, where I get to say that the russian front is collapsing like a pornstars asshole.

Nah, pornstars assholes are much more resilient. 

They take a lickin' and keep on tickin'.


Watching Lookner's feed right now.  It's a full on rout.

You always know the Russians got it pushed in when they declare victory and "redeploy". 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 11:57:45 AM
I'll check that out.  he's generally fallen off my radar for months.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 10, 2022, 12:13:41 PM
Quote
After all the bullshit, I understand how fucking Americans are. They were able to set up logistics on the other side of the globe and fuck Iraq with virtually no casualties. It is truly the only superpower in the world.

Beautiful. The copium reserves are finally running out!


(https://i.redd.it/48q2qfhsm1n91.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 10, 2022, 01:07:52 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 10, 2022, 10:06:22 AM
I saw on FOX this morning a report that Putin had arrested 5 of his top officials for conspiring to remove him from office. So, 5 more volunteers for the Izyum Front.

Who's the host who runs the Russian State TV roundtable talk? -- he had a couple of guys on the other night who were gently but firmly trying to explain that they were for the war, they understood it, they understood sometimes front lines shifted around, but where was the progress? -- that's what people are concerned about. (i.e. the softest possible public critique of the war)

His reply was literally, "Remember, Joseph Stalin shot traitors who questioned the war effort!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 01:23:22 PM
So will the Russians take the hit, pull back to Donetsk and Luhansk and dig in? Ukraine has clearly stated that the war will not end until the Russians are completely ejected from their territory, including Crimea. Does Ukraine have to power to do it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 01:57:38 PM
oh for fucks sake!
I go to lunch and get home and find moscow has fallen.....  :arr:  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 01:59:51 PM
QuoteAfter all the bullshit, I understand how fucking Americans are. They were able to set up logistics on the other side of the globe and fuck Iraq with virtually no casualties. It is truly the only superpower in the world.

and china still doesnt get it. any of it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 10, 2022, 02:01:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 01:23:22 PM
So will the Russians take the hit, pull back to Donetsk and Luhansk and dig in? Ukraine has clearly stated that the war will not end until the Russians are completely ejected from their territory, including Crimea. Does Ukraine have to power to do it?
Again, there's the 1917 scenario, Russian soldiers calling it the quits and going home. Having shot their officers first. Maybe quite not yet. But I for one would not say this would be completely impossible to happen, either.

I mean the Russian Army = Rosgvardia, Chechens, Wagner, forced soldiers from "Peoples Republics", ... , and yes, some actual Russian soldiers here and there as well. Not a cohesive force at all.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 02:20:53 PM
But does Ukraine have the strength and momentum to continue to keep the pressure on Russian occupiers for as long as it takes?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 10, 2022, 02:25:45 PM
Is it too late to get some Norks involved in the rout?  >:D They might need the practice...

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 01:59:51 PM
QuoteAfter all the bullshit, I understand how fucking Americans are. They were able to set up logistics on the other side of the globe and fuck Iraq with virtually no casualties. It is truly the only superpower in the world.

and china still doesnt get it. any of it.

I keep reading that first line (from the quote thread snapshot) as "I [now] understand how f-ing American the Amercans are." Bolded words added by my imagination.  :coolsmiley:

My own favorite quote from that snapshot, though, is how the Russian army will now be ridiculed for decades even more than the French after WW2. (Posted by a Russian-flag guy with the name of Richtofen's Artillery??)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 10, 2022, 02:29:57 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 02:20:53 PM
But does Ukraine have the strength and momentum to continue to keep the pressure on Russian occupiers for as long as it takes?
For these two offensives, who knows (well they do). In the longer run, I'd say yes. No recruiting issues, motivated soldiers, Western gear continuing to flow in. Not so with Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 10, 2022, 02:31:30 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 01:23:22 PM
So will the Russians take the hit, pull back to Donetsk and Luhansk and dig in? Ukraine has clearly stated that the war will not end until the Russians are completely ejected from their territory, including Crimea. Does Ukraine have to power to do it?

I'm fuzzy about whether they have the power to retake the Crimea, yet, which requires boots on the ground (presumably) and a sufficient logistic tail. Though they'd have the advantage of interior lines. NATO should be sending them alllll the anti-air.

On the other hand: will the Russians be able to (1) "pull back", and (2) "dig in"??

Worth noting that 1917 didn't end with 2 million troops refusing to throw down their arms while going home; it ended with 2 million troops kicking off Ageod's Revolution Under Siege (in effect).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 02:36:02 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 02:20:53 PM
But does Ukraine have the strength and momentum to continue to keep the pressure on Russian occupiers for as long as it takes?

well there are report of fighting outside Vovchansk now.
I was wondering where that third punch was going to come from, seems it might be a haymaker along the northern border.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 02:38:06 PM
its a lot to consider given that the last time these types of advances happened we were looking a corp+ size formations not brigades.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 02:39:23 PM
^That's what I mean. Eventually (might take years) I believe Ukraine can retake all their lost territory, including Crimea. But not this year.

Good point on whether Russia can hold on to it!

And what does the border look like between Ukraine and Russia when the war ends? Will it take the mantle of being the most militarized border in the world from the 38th Parallel in Korea?

I have many questions :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 02:48:06 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 02:36:02 PM
well there are report of fighting outside Vovchansk now.
I was wondering where that third punch was going to come from, seems it might be a haymaker along the northern border.

Looks like they're making some pushes there and towards Lysychansk in the south. 

The head of the "DPR" was also evacuated back towards the Russian border.  By the short address he gave from the passenger seat of a car it looked like it was being done fairly quickly.  I'd imagine it was precautionary but you never know right now. 

If the Russians were smart they'd abandon their territory in the far north and form a new defensive line along the natural barriers on an axis from Satvoe to Lysychansk.  That'd significantly shorten their front line and put them far back enough to get prepared defenses in place before the UAF could hit them. 

Doing that would expose a large swath of the Russian border though, and would be all but guaranteeing they won't do another push for Kyiv in the Spring campaign season, so I don't expect it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 02:52:42 PM
I have something in my eyes.........
:smitten:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1568650372864004096
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 02:54:20 PM
'If the Russians were smart...'  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 10, 2022, 03:00:56 PM
The Russians are saying that they have "withdrawn" from Izium.  I'll be curious to see if we get any numbers from the Ukrainians or Western intelligence sources about how many prisoners were taken. 

Russia continues to play with only half a deck, but it's pretty clear that they're getting their butts kicked locally.  That said, they've only begun to reclaim land that was lost in the East a few months ago.  War is messy, unpredictable business.

As the Russians seem to be learning quickly...


Edit:  I just saw that Kupiansk had fallen also.  That does put a rather major different spin on things.  The Ukrainians do still have to make it back to Lyschansk (sp?), but this is looking a lot less "localized" than it was 24 hours ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 03:09:05 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 02:54:20 PM
'If the Russians were smart...'  :2funny:

Exactly.

If they were smart they never would've launched an invasion over the massive land area that they did in the first place. 

A bit of perspective.  The February invasion took place along a frontage larger than Operation Barbarossa, and yet was conducted with around 1/12 as many troops. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 03:29:38 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 10, 2022, 03:00:56 PM
As the Russians seem to be learning quickly...

they are?  ::)  not trying to be a dick but please... examples?
gold medal in running away without your equipment?
from what Im seeing the French right now are like "FUCK YA WE'RE NOT THE WORST ANYMORE!!!!!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 03:37:40 PM
^I think he was being sarcastic.

D is that documented about the size of this disaster being geographically larger than the launch of Barbarossa??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 03:38:35 PM
I wouldn't go that far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 03:42:19 PM
^He said that just a few posts above.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 03:48:14 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 03:37:40 PM
D is that documented about the size of this disaster being geographically larger than the launch of Barbarossa??

Yep.  I should've said as large.  Both invasions covered roughly 2800km of land.   

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 03:50:27 PM
Wow. And you'd think Putin would be well-read in Hitler's mistakes.  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 10, 2022, 03:55:24 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 03:50:27 PM
Wow. And you'd think Putin would be well-read in Hitler's mistakes.  L:-)

Putin should be pleased.  Denazification is going on right now.  Not in the direction he intended but still.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 03:56:45 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 03:50:27 PM
Wow. And you'd think Putin would be well-read in Hitler's mistakes.  L:-)

Considering they're suffering from many of the same problems the Germans did, lack of supply, hostile locals, inability to sustain combat power along a too long front, I'd say he skipped most of the chapters in the book about the Great Patriotic War.

The Germans at least had larger numbers, good equipment, better overall troop quality and better leadership. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 04:04:11 PM
 ;D

Well I'm almost as giddy as Star at today's news = I just hope Ukraine can keep it going.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 04:20:37 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 04:04:11 PM
;D

Well I'm almost as giddy as Star at today's news = I just hope Ukraine can keep it going.


Then you'll love this. 

The legitimate Governor of Luhansk Oblast Serhiy Haidai just dropped this on Facebook: "Lysychnask, a great Ukrainian city. There will be a lot of reconstruction work"

The Ukranians taking Lysychnask and Severodonetsk seems to be the next phase.  If they can do that, that's a huge blow to Russian propaganda and morale.  They bled hard to get those cities and crowed just as hard when they took them.  Those and Mariupol have been about the only victories the Russians have had to hang their hats on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 04:50:01 PM
some real good GoT vibes here.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcS4gkuXEAEsH5x?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 04:55:45 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcUnJqlXoAASslp?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 04:56:52 PM
I haven't had a bullshit armchair general wardick like this since 91'!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 05:17:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 04:56:52 PM
I haven't had a bullshit armchair general wardick like this since 91'!

Same.

I imagine the majority of us on here could plan and conduct a war better than the Russians have.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 05:30:27 PM
Does that red patch of the plague doctor on the girl in the pic above mean she's a medic?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 10, 2022, 05:50:24 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 05:30:27 PM
Does that red patch of the plague doctor on the girl in the pic above mean she's a medic?

She also has a red cross so I imagine that's the case.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 10, 2022, 05:54:12 PM
^Didn't even see that 'til now
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 10, 2022, 07:02:47 PM
It's a tourniquet.  You can see the E: from TIME: where you write in the time of application.  Elevation, direct pressure to major artery/vein often isn't enough to control massive haemorrhage from traumatic injuries.  Hopefully, everyone is being issued one.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 10, 2022, 07:21:55 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on September 10, 2022, 07:02:47 PM
It's a tourniquet.  You can see the E: from TIME: where you write in the time of application.  Elevation, direct pressure to major artery/vein often isn't enough to control massive haemorrhage from traumatic injuries.  Hopefully, everyone is being issued one.

Would a standard GI have a big red-cross patch on their standard-issue tourniquet, though?  That seems like it could easily cause some Geneva confusion by misrepresenting the soldier as a medic.  I'm woefully uninformed on the issue however.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 07:30:17 PM
if you think red cross emblems mean anything to russians I have some swampland to sell you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 10, 2022, 07:41:24 PM
I'm no expert. It's a small symbol, probably came stitched on the pouch.  The medic symbols are large when one hopes the enemy will respect its protections.  Historically, they have been removed when medics are targetted.

Both sides are also wearing bright colours on arms and legs to prevent fratricide.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 08:37:08 PM
overrunning a soviet repair depot on a scooter.  :bd:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1568719355843600385
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 10, 2022, 08:41:30 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 07:30:17 PM
if you think red cross emblems mean anything to russians I have some swampland to sell you.

Good point, I wouldn't be surprised if the red cross is used for target practice in Moscow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 10, 2022, 10:47:32 PM
Wow. well, the entire Russian front north of the separatist oblasts is collapsing. 

The UAF are taking towns one after the other in the far north.  Videos show Russian troops abandoning their positions. 

And just now...I'd mentioned earlier if I were the Russians I'd put up a defensive line at Svatove...well, they're withdrawing from there too. 

They may be pulling back only to the separatist lines.  That's wild.  No one could've anticipated that kind of collapse. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 11, 2022, 12:30:34 AM
That is nuts.  I'm happy to see it.  But that is a faster collapse than anything I would have expected.

It looks like Russia is a Paper Bear.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 11, 2022, 12:48:11 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 11, 2022, 12:30:34 AM
That is nuts.  I'm happy to see it.  But that is a faster collapse than anything I would have expected.

It looks like Russia is a Paper Bear.

They're being smart for once.

They're abandoning Kharviv and refocusing on the separatist oblasts.  They have local support there.

From here on they'll try to hold the south.  They're horribly exposed on the wrong side of the Dniper and may get degraded there.   But if they can hold on and get some line of supply, their next stage will be an operation aimed at Odesa. 

The Ukrainians have plenty of time between now and then to totally wreck that and I bet the will.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 11, 2022, 12:55:42 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 03:29:38 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 10, 2022, 03:00:56 PM
As the Russians seem to be learning quickly...

they are?  ::)  not trying to be a dick but please... examples?
gold medal in running away without your equipment?
from what Im seeing the French right now are like "FUCK YA WE'RE NOT THE WORST ANYMORE!!!!!!

Dude, I'm not trying to be a dick either, but you need to read for the sake of comprehension rather than for the sake of disputation.

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 10, 2022, 03:00:56 PM
War is messy, unpredictable business.

As the Russians seem to be learning quickly...

For the record, I don't think that the Russian leadership are going to finish learning that lesson any time soon.  But they don't really care. 

The Russian Army seems to be receiving that lesson much more effectively at the moment.  Experience is a dear teacher, but fools will learn by no other.

The French are certainly relieved that the Russians seem to be taking the pole position in the military "Biggest Loser" contest.  I only hope that recent events continue and accelerate.  At some point, I suspect that logistics will have to catch up with the Ukrainians, so long as they actually have an opposing army still standing in the battlefield? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 11, 2022, 01:04:01 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 11, 2022, 12:55:42 AM

For the record, I don't think that the Russian leadership are going to finish learning that lesson any time soon.  But they don't really care. 

Pretty much.  The biggest issue the Russians will have. they don't care about reality.  You have a bunch of officers and ministers all jockeying for position and saying they're right.  None of them were.  They all expected Ukraine to cave in under a week so now it's knives out in Moscow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 05:34:30 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcSazdpXoAIAfUR?format=png&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 05:35:54 AM
QuoteDude, I'm not trying to be a dick either, but you need to read for the sake of comprehension rather than for the sake of disputation.

wasnt trying to be argumentative and sorry if it seemed so.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 11, 2022, 06:07:10 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 11, 2022, 12:48:11 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 11, 2022, 12:30:34 AM
That is nuts.  I'm happy to see it.  But that is a faster collapse than anything I would have expected.

It looks like Russia is a Paper Bear.

They're being smart for once.

They're abandoning Kharviv and refocusing on the separatist oblasts.  They have local support there.

From here on they'll try to hold the south.  They're horribly exposed on the wrong side of the Dniper and may get degraded there.   But if they can hold on and get some line of supply, their next stage will be an operation aimed at Odesa. 

The Ukrainians have plenty of time between now and then to totally wreck that and I bet the will.

  Well, but look at the Russian options.  As usual, they have trapped themselves in an impossible bind (for like the 5th time -- i think they had this won if they had just not done anything,
now its just a question of how much they will lose -- and as usual, the more this goes on the more they lose).  So here's the current bind:  even if they hold on to most of what they have
at the moment and even if there is a "stalemate" and even if they take Odessa or something, the Russians have managed to set it up so that NATO and company have no choice but to make
sure Russia is totally defeated as fast as possible.  Is Western Europe going to want to spend decades fiddling "diplomatically" with whatever weird problems the Russians have?
The easiest answer and the best for the Russians is to bring in some kind of neutral party like the UN to supervise demiliarizing Crimea and so on -- but that's not going to fly.
Next best for the Russians is some kind of ceasefire with negotiations (which everyone knows is just letting the Russians win because they have linked their economic policies to
messing with Western Europe forever).  It's just so much easier and cheaper to give the Ukrainians enough to clear the Russians out and then go from there.
Now if the Russians suddenly wised up, they would detach their economic crap and say the war was over let's have a ceasefire -- but no, they are going to make it clear that the
only way to get Russian gas and oil is to get Russia out of Ukraine and start things over from where things were in say 2010.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 06:23:43 AM
seems they've fucked off all the way to the border.  :))

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcXslmHX0AEXiSb?format=jpg&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcXqalNWQAAgFRl?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 06:47:58 AM
how its going or more accurately how it went:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcXRpEqWQAI73ZB?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 08:45:21 AM
its 10:45 have they taken moscow yet?  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 11, 2022, 09:46:34 AM
I really wonder if the Russians now still are trying to pull 'yes this is all part of the plan' and are luring the Ukrainians into some kind of trap. Everything we have seen says 'no way' but I still wonder.

Also wonder if the Russians have enough resources to set up some kind of trap and then pivot towards Odessa.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 10:20:51 AM
a simple no to all your questions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 11, 2022, 02:32:37 PM
Gus, anything is possible in war, but if I were a betting man, I'd give you 5-1 odds on that bet, if not higher.

Star, all good man, thanks for the clarification.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 11, 2022, 02:38:36 PM
Hey, was there ever confirmation about the leader (president?) of the Donetsk's "People's" "Republic", Dennis Pushilin (I'm surely spelling that wrong) resigning yesterday (Saturday their time)?

Because, if so, that would not exactly be a massive endorsement of the expectation of Russia holding Donetsk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 02:56:07 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcYsGNtWAAQrTPn?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on September 11, 2022, 03:01:10 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 11, 2022, 02:38:36 PM
Hey, was there ever confirmation about the leader (president?) of the Donetsk's "People's" "Republic", Dennis Pushilin (I'm surely spelling that wrong) resigning yesterday (Saturday their time)?

Because, if so, that would not exactly be a massive endorsement of the expectation of Russia holding Donetsk.

I wonder if the Russians will look for him and try to send him back to show they are still in control. If he knows what's good for him he'll stay hidden so he doesn't end up like Benito, hanging from a service station's fuel island canopy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 04:12:04 PM
hey russia, go fuck yourselves!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1568737859842056195
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 05:34:09 PM
well putin fucked off to sochi today and Im hoping for that bunker moment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 07:58:02 PM
where its at, the find out part! fuck russia!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcZ6AkaXkAI-hxC?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 09:17:32 PM
fuck I love these maps!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcZXa32WIAMjlMs?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on September 11, 2022, 09:37:05 PM
"WITHOUT you."


https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1569085006642905096?s=20&t=BaohW7I90sve1TOaMOZ-zQ (https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1569085006642905096?s=20&t=BaohW7I90sve1TOaMOZ-zQ)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2022, 01:14:40 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcZkFJgXoAMp5Oq?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 12, 2022, 01:32:20 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2022, 01:14:40 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcZkFJgXoAMp5Oq?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

Oh man, this is so totally me right now!  Except instead of the girlfriend it's just a cat at the moment  :(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 12, 2022, 04:52:47 AM
There's Blitzkrieg and there's ...

https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1569228886269136896

(sorry, no click saver for this one  :D )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 12, 2022, 07:35:27 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2022, 01:14:40 AM


  While I was thinking about things, I found that the Russians say they are outnumbered 8 to 1 (in critical sectors or something).  Maybe they should just leave:

Top Russian official claims Ukrainian troops outnumbered Russia eight-fold in Kharkiv
From CNN's Anna Chernova

A top Russian-backed official has claimed the Ukrainian army outnumbered Russian and pro-Russian forces by eight times in the last week, following Kyiv's sweeping offensive in the east.

"Talking about the forces that have been transferred for the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army, it outnumbered our troops by about eight times, no less," Vitaly Ganchev, the most senior Russian backed official in the northeastern Kharkiv region, told Russia 24 on Monday, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

Ganchev echoed other Russian officials in attempting to present Moscow's retreat as a decision to regroup further from the front line.

"Therefore, in order to preserve our personnel, I think it was decided to withdraw, regroup," he added.

CNN cannot independently verify Ganchev's claims.

Some background: Russia's recent collapse in the northeastern region of Kharkiv has been met with stinging criticism from Kremlin loyalists -- and prompted the question of how Moscow will respond to its failure.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who has supplied thousands of fighters to the offensive, said "mistakes were made," in a Telegram post on Sunday. Kadyrov added that he would be contacting senior officials at the Defense Ministry to spell out his message.

Kholmogorov, a blogger and staunch advocate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, also joined the chorus of criticism leveled at Moscow.

They reposted an equally scathing account by the Partizan Telegram channel from the front lines.

"The soldiers were on foot with one machine gun and a sack. Abandoned by the command, not knowing the way, they walked at random," the post said.

"Lord, save the Russian soldiers from blows from the front and even more from blows in the back."

CNN's Tim Lister and Darya Tarasova contributed reporting.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 12, 2022, 07:53:26 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 02:56:07 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcYsGNtWAAQrTPn?format=jpg&name=large)

I'm sure some part of Crimea can be named "Kremlin".  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 12, 2022, 09:59:28 AM
I can totally understand why he's thinking about the next offensive and not her.  She's not even that hot.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 12, 2022, 10:08:58 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 11:39:15 AM
and here we are, where I get to say that the russian front is collapsing prolapsing like a pornstars asshole.

fixed it
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 12, 2022, 10:14:35 AM
Map before the offensive: prelapsalarian (according to Russviet propaganda)

Map during the offensive: prolapsing
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 12, 2022, 10:21:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2022, 03:29:38 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 10, 2022, 03:00:56 PM
As the Russians seem to be learning quickly...

they are?  ::)  not trying to be a dick but please... examples?
gold medal in running away without your equipment?
from what Im seeing the French right now are like "FUCK YA WE'RE NOT THE WORST ANYMORE!!!!!!

Yes indeed they are.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 12, 2022, 10:56:43 AM
 ... the UAFs are now at part of the Ukraine/Soviet border. (New wargame scenario to simulate - I like to call it, "HIMARS at the Border"

And the UAFs now control ,or threaten, a big chunk of the logistical/ supply routes to the south.



And now I am nail-biting waiting for the inevitable counterattack.... but it seems the Soviets are pissing men and materials away elsewhere?!

Twitter is stating the the Soviets are actually still doing some offensive operations down south. If true... WTF? Won't they need those troops to re-establish supply lines? Am I missing something? I mean other than how stupid things seem to be?



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 12, 2022, 11:00:25 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on September 12, 2022, 09:59:28 AM
I can totally understand why he's thinking about the next offensive and not her.  She's not even that hot.

Give her a tube of lip-gloss... then say that...  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 12, 2022, 11:02:32 AM
I suspect Putin will find some Fall-Guy in the army to blame all this on in time, not now, because the Glorious Russian Army is beating-back the Nazi Drug-Addict Hordes to save Mother Russia. But in time a few heads will roll and they'll try to figure-out what the hell went wrong. Then they will be back, like Arnold. Question is, will the army take it's spanking or will they start looking homeward for the real cause of their woes.  :-\
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 12, 2022, 11:22:27 AM
That would take a bigger drunk than Boris Yeltsin to say "Fuck It!" and start rolling tanks east.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 12, 2022, 11:52:49 AM
War on the Rocks just posted a podcast of an interview with CNA analyst Mike Kofman: UKRAINE'S KHARKHIV OPERATION AND THE RUSSIAN MILITARY'S BLACK WEEK

  https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/ukraines-kharkhiv-operation-and-the-russian-militarys-black-week/?__s=xlwaqxfp3j5d8o2leqan 

It is a pretty wide-ranging interview of the past week's events, but well worth the 45 minutes to listen to.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2022, 12:19:30 PM
kherson might be about to fall as well.  reports of some units negotiating surrender terms right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 12, 2022, 12:28:27 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 12, 2022, 11:00:25 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on September 12, 2022, 09:59:28 AM
I can totally understand why he's thinking about the next offensive and not her.  She's not even that hot.

Give her a tube of lip-gloss... then say that...  <:-)

Haha!  Well I can't argue against that.   ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 12, 2022, 12:31:42 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2022, 12:19:30 PM
kherson might be about to fall as well.  reports of some units negotiating surrender terms right now.

Apparently negotiating separately from their high command.

If this pans out that could be the start of a general collapse.  I was hoping for the mutinies to start coming and breaking the Russian's back.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 12, 2022, 12:43:13 PM
^That's awesome news  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 12, 2022, 12:46:59 PM
For some news about the other side..

CNN reporting that the Russians are launching a counterattack at Kupiansk, trying to take advantage of the Ukrainians being disorganized from the success of their advance.

If the Russians can't hold the west side of Kupiansk they can't hold the new defensive line they're trying to build in the east bank of the Oskil.  Even with no bridges intact, the river around Kupiansk is easily fordable by Ukrainian equipment, so this engagement could be decisive to if the Ukrainians can further exploit their momentum and get over the Oskil.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 12, 2022, 01:26:13 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 12, 2022, 11:02:32 AM
I suspect Putin will find some Fall-Guy in the army to blame all this on in time, not now, because the Glorious Russian Army is beating-back the Nazi Drug-Addict Hordes to save Mother Russia. But in time a few heads will roll and they'll try to figure-out what the hell went wrong. Then they will be back, like Arnold. Question is, will the army take it's spanking or will they start looking homeward for the real cause of their woes.  :-\

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-fires-berdnikov-commander-ukraine-war-kharkiv-b2165023.html

Putin 'fires army commander after just 16 days' amid major losses in Kharkiv.

Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov was appointed to the position of commander of Russian army's Western Military District on 26 August, replacing Lieutenant General Sychecvy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 12, 2022, 01:42:53 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 12, 2022, 01:26:13 PM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-fires-berdnikov-commander-ukraine-war-kharkiv-b2165023.html

Putin 'fires army commander after just 16 days' amid major losses in Kharkiv.

Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov was appointed to the position of commander of Russian army's Western Military District on 26 August, replacing Lieutenant General Sychecvy.


Why fire him when the entire operation was just a planned withdrawal from a strategically unimportant sector?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 12, 2022, 02:04:15 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 12, 2022, 01:42:53 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 12, 2022, 01:26:13 PM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-fires-berdnikov-commander-ukraine-war-kharkiv-b2165023.html

Putin 'fires army commander after just 16 days' amid major losses in Kharkiv.

Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov was appointed to the position of commander of Russian army's Western Military District on 26 August, replacing Lieutenant General Sychecvy.


Why fire him when the entire operation was just a planned withdrawal from a strategically unimportant sector?

They didn't withdraw fast enough ?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcR3Y6WWIAAHaU-.jpg)   (https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/333/522/e49.jpeg)   (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcTyAsfWQAI-ocQ?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 12, 2022, 02:18:22 PM
I'm trying really hard not to get my hopes up.  If, in fact, the Russian Army is mutinying, that is great news.  I do wonder what might push Russia to start using tactical nukes in an effort to salvage the situation?

As much as I rejoice at the current news, I still worry about the future.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 12, 2022, 02:23:26 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 12, 2022, 07:53:26 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2022, 02:56:07 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcYsGNtWAAQrTPn?format=jpg&name=large)

I'm sure some part of Crimea can be named "Kremlin".  >:D

Wait, wait...! -- my joke has now been overtaken by recent events: the Uks have raised the flag over Kreminna yesterday!  :bd: (In Luhansk.)

Apparently the 'president' or leader or whatever he is of Luhansk didn't resign fast enough.  >:D

"If I was planning suicide, you would tell me, right boss?" -- that joke should have featured a "yes" reply.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 12, 2022, 02:26:45 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 12, 2022, 02:18:22 PM
I'm trying really hard not to get my hopes up.  If, in fact, the Russian Army is mutinying, that is great news.  I do wonder what might push Russia to start using tactical nukes in an effort to salvage the situation?

As much as I rejoice at the current news, I still worry about the future.

I feel the same way. However, I am not certain that any tactical nukes used would be against military targets. Soviet mindset seems to thinks civilian targets are fairgame.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 12, 2022, 02:42:18 PM
I've been worried about nuclear weapons all along :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 12, 2022, 02:50:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 12, 2022, 02:42:18 PM
I've been worried about nuclear weapons all along :/

It's a legit concern.  A lot of the talking heads in the Russian press are pounding the table and doubling down.  Quite a bit of "Lets quit messing around and declare real war" talk. 

Medvedev was shouting for mobilization and escalation and said they at this point would accept nothing short of the total capitulation of the Kyiv "regime".

Komsomolskaya Pravda reported as fact that there were no Ukrainian forces in the northern offensive, but they were instead NATO forces in Ukrainian uniform.

Most of this is blowing smoke of course.  The Russians always respond to defeat with big talk and increased threats.  The same were said back when the Moskva was sunk.  Still if its true that front line forces are considering independent surrender, all bets could be off. 

However, also of consideration about the surrender issue.  AP reported that Ukrainian forces right now are having trouble having the capacity to actually take prisoners. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 12, 2022, 03:14:18 PM
Who knows if that last bit about prisoners is actually propaganda as well, from the Ukrainian side...just to make it easier and kill everything Russian. Who could blame them?

I fear a Hitler 1945-style unleashing of terror weapons (but nuclear-tipped) at Ukraine (maybe other places) out of simple spite and insanity, both of which are in ample supply in Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 12, 2022, 03:48:42 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 12, 2022, 02:50:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 12, 2022, 02:42:18 PM
I've been worried about nuclear weapons all along :/

However, also of consideration about the surrender issue.  AP reported that Ukrainian forces right now are having trouble having the capacity to actually take prisoners.

Yeah, I've heard the Ukrainian government state that they are prepared for a prisoner exchange, but I'm sure that the Russians will find reasons to delay and complicate that.  I wonder, if it gets to a certain point, whether some neutral NATO country (e.g., Denmark or Spain) might offer to house the Russian prisoners temporarily? 

It could be portrayed as a humanitarian gesture, but that doesn't mean that the Russians would buy it.  Their command seems very unconcerned with how this war affects their soldiers on the ground.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 12, 2022, 04:15:57 PM
If I were a Russian soldier I would beg to be taken prisoner, if it was actually happening, and then sent to Denmark or Spain.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on September 12, 2022, 04:39:05 PM
Wonder how many would refuse repatriation if they got sent to a neutral country, or even stayed in Ukraine for that matter.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 12, 2022, 04:46:15 PM
I'd go get captured so I could get sent to Spain for the winter.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 12, 2022, 05:12:28 PM
That's kind of what I'm wondering.

Denmark in the winter is... rainy. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2022, 05:40:51 PM
this would be nice.  <:-)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fce3z-wXoAEAw96?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 12, 2022, 05:41:35 PM
Gwynne Dyer is talking about the collapse of the Russian empire.  https://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/dyer-putin-and-the-end-of-europes-last-empire
QuoteThat's where the popular confusion in Russia comes from. Because the Communists claimed to be "anti-imperialist," and even abstained from using Russian nationalist tropes until Stalin's time, it was easy for Russians to think the Soviet Union was all the same "homeland." But the subject peoples noticed.

When Gorbachev largely abandoned the threat of force to keep the empire together, non-Russian nationalities took that as a signal they could leave. And their departure really wasn't "the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century" (as Putin claims); it was the final act in the dismantling of Europe's empires.

Of course the subject peoples left. Some colonial populations were radically different from the Russians, like the Muslim "republics" of Central Asia. Some seemed quite similar to outsiders – Ukrainians and Russians, for example – but their real historical grievances were as deep and irreconcilable as those between the Irish and the English.
And US General Ben Hodges is saying to prepare for the collapse of Russia. https://ca.rogers.yahoo.com/news/collapse-russia-general-ukraine-123952649.html
QuoteHodges told Times Radio on Monday: "We may be looking at the collapse of the Russian Federation as it is over the next four or five years.

"We were not prepared for the collapse of the Soviet Union [in 1991]. We need to be prepared for this possibility."

Explaining why Russia could break up, he said: "The military has been exposed, the massive amounts of corruption I think are going to become increasingly intolerable for Russian citizens.
"The two key pillars of their industry, energy export and arms export, I think both of them are going to be suffering."

Referencing Ukraine's recent territorial gains against Russian president Vladimir Putin's forces, Hodges said: "The Russians have collapsed in so many places because they're exhausted, their logistics are exhausted, their officers have been killed.

I think Russia will lose Chechnya and Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria, probably other non Caucus republics, in the long run.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 12, 2022, 05:46:56 PM
It would be deserved, but western weapons like HIMARS won't be used against targets in Russia. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-hasnt-used-himars-strike-russian-territory-2022-07-08/
QuoteThe United States started providing the key precision rocket weapon system to Ukraine last month after receiving assurances from Kyiv that it would not use them to hit targets inside Russian territory, a potentially escalatory move that could broaden the conflict.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2022, 06:06:14 PM
 :DD

https://twitter.com/i/status/1569455628049063938
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 12, 2022, 07:49:23 PM
If Russia breaks up it will be the exact opposite result of what Putin was gunning for when he started this. Perhaps karma is real.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2022, 08:38:52 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fcfw25nXgAAIa0R?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2022, 09:04:35 PM
HUZZA!!!  new Jomni maps!

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1569506286001070080

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fcf__5IXEAE_J36?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 12, 2022, 10:33:41 PM
I'm wondering if the Ukrainians will try to hold all this new territory they've liberated or fall back to a shorter line to defend? If they do, won't the Russkies simply return and reoccupy the parts not held? How much time's left until the weather gets bad?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2022, 11:07:57 PM
why would they not hold all of it?  it's their country!
with what formations are the russians retaking anything?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 13, 2022, 04:41:10 AM
1st Guards Tank Army rendered combat ineffective. Wow.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1569550041194405890

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcgpcfJXkAANw0s?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 13, 2022, 06:51:20 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 12, 2022, 07:49:23 PM
If Russia breaks up it will be the exact opposite result of what Putin was gunning for when he started this. Perhaps karma is real.

  Well, the Ukrainians are across the Oskil south of Kupiyask (Kupiyansk? and Izium), so Putin better think fast...oops that's not going to happen.  Is it Karma or is it
quit while you are ahead?  Since apparently his aim in Ukraine was regime change, as soon as that failed he should have cut his losses and taken some
big diplomatic hits.  He still would have had all his gains.  Instead, apparently he decided genocide was a reasonable plan B.  Clearly that was a mistake
when the people you are trying to exterminate have even a moderate number of weapons roughly equivalent to yours.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 13, 2022, 06:58:49 AM
'Quit Before You Begin'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 13, 2022, 07:13:06 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 13, 2022, 06:58:49 AM
'Quit Before You Begin'

  Well, that would have been wise, but remember, it was generally believed in February 2021 that Russia could overrun Ukraine in a week or two.  It is possible
that somebody of an extremely Machiavellian sort in the US intel world might have suspected Russia was going to have some trouble...?  But how much?
Even in the wildest western dreams (mine for example) nobody outside of Ukraine seems to have thought the Ukrainians were going to totally wreck the
Russians in March 2021.  In some ways the Russian problem was obvious -- they attacked everywhere and the Ukrainians concentrated on defending Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Anyway, Putin could have stopped in March and probably held on to most of his gains.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 13, 2022, 08:18:34 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 13, 2022, 07:13:06 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 13, 2022, 06:58:49 AM
'Quit Before You Begin'

  Well, that would have been wise, but remember, it was generally believed in February 2021 that Russia could overrun Ukraine in a week or two.  It is possible
that somebody of an extremely Machiavellian sort in the US intel world might have suspected Russia was going to have some trouble...?  But how much?
Even in the wildest western dreams (mine for example) nobody outside of Ukraine seems to have thought the Ukrainians were going to totally wreck the
Russians in March 2021.  In some ways the Russian problem was obvious -- they attacked everywhere and the Ukrainians concentrated on defending Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Anyway, Putin could have stopped in March and probably held on to most of his gains.

My 2 cents: Everyone believed that Ukraine would rapidly be overrun because, assuming even semi-competent military planning, they should have been.  My comment  is not to intended to distract to any degree the courage, tenacity and skill with which the Ukrainians have defended their homes.  Rather, it is to simply point out that the Russian's invasion plan was so incredibly bad, ignoring a multitude of factors and basic principles, that what should have been a relatively easy victory has turned into a very costly and embarrassing defeat, with potentially massive geopolitical repercussions.  See generally https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-ill-fated-invasion-ukraine-lessons-modern-warfare 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 13, 2022, 08:44:35 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on September 13, 2022, 08:18:34 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 13, 2022, 07:13:06 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 13, 2022, 06:58:49 AM
'Quit Before You Begin'

  Well, that would have been wise, but remember, it was generally believed in February 2021 that Russia could overrun Ukraine in a week or two.  It is possible
that somebody of an extremely Machiavellian sort in the US intel world might have suspected Russia was going to have some trouble...?  But how much?
Even in the wildest western dreams (mine for example) nobody outside of Ukraine seems to have thought the Ukrainians were going to totally wreck the
Russians in March 2021.  In some ways the Russian problem was obvious -- they attacked everywhere and the Ukrainians concentrated on defending Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Anyway, Putin could have stopped in March and probably held on to most of his gains.

My 2 cents: Everyone believed that Ukraine would rapidly be overrun because, assuming even semi-competent military planning, they should have been.  My comment  is not to intended to distract to any degree the courage, tenacity and skill with which the Ukrainians have defended their homes.  Rather, it is to simply point out that the Russian's invasion plan was so incredibly bad, ignoring a multitude of factors and basic principles, that what should have been a relatively easy victory has turned into a very costly and embarrassing defeat, with potentially massive geopolitical repercussions.  See generally https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-ill-fated-invasion-ukraine-lessons-modern-warfare

  Yep.  I think the Russians could have done much better in March 2022 (why did I think it was 2021?  Oh dear).  I'm not sure what the point was in attacking everywhere -- which I think was
their main problem -- they just set themselves up for defeat in detail (though of course they did take a lot of ground down south) around Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 13, 2022, 08:56:21 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 13, 2022, 08:44:35 AM
I'm not sure what the point was in attacking everywhere -- which I think was
their main problem -- they just set themselves up for defeat in detail (though of course they did take a lot of ground down south) around Kyiv and Kharkiv.

I think they really believed they would be welcomed with open arms (like the recently liberated areas welcome the Ukrainian army).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 13, 2022, 09:10:42 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 13, 2022, 08:56:21 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 13, 2022, 08:44:35 AM
I'm not sure what the point was in attacking everywhere -- which I think was
their main problem -- they just set themselves up for defeat in detail (though of course they did take a lot of ground down south) around Kyiv and Kharkiv.

I think they really believed they would be welcomed with open arms (like the recently liberated areas welcome the Ukrainian army).

That was one (of many) bad planning assumptions.  Basic intelligence preparation should have led them to question this assumption. I'm not sure how in this day and age they could have been so wrong on this point, or as a minimum, not have planned for the possibility that they were wrong on this point. The Russian invasion preparation and planning will be studied for generations in war colleges throughout the world as an example of how not to do it....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 13, 2022, 09:17:13 AM
Possible Breaking News: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1569684401134632963 {Note from Tripoli: I am not saying this is true, I'm just relaying it.
Reading the thread indicates that there is some debate over its veracity....}


ROAD CLOSED? Jason Jay Smart
@officejjsmart
reports that friends in Moscow have texted that: "The Ring Road around Moscow is closed by the National Guard". And that, " [he] hasn't seen anything like this since the 1991 coup".  Developing.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 13, 2022, 10:00:04 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on September 13, 2022, 09:17:13 AM
Possible Breaking News: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1569684401134632963 {Note from Tripoli: I am not saying this is true, I'm just relaying it.
Reading the thread indicates that there is some debate over its veracity....}


ROAD CLOSED? Jason Jay Smart
@officejjsmart
reports that friends in Moscow have texted that: "The Ring Road around Moscow is closed by the National Guard". And that, " [he] hasn't seen anything like this since the 1991 coup".  Developing.

Maybe it's time for Xi to offer Putin a permanent vacation home in a remote part of the Huangshan Mountains.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 13, 2022, 10:15:03 AM
"President Putin has gone to a farm up north where he can run and play freely!" -- Russviet news propaganda soon, probably.


Quote from: Pete Dero on September 13, 2022, 08:56:21 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 13, 2022, 08:44:35 AM
I'm not sure what the point was in attacking everywhere -- which I think was
their main problem -- they just set themselves up for defeat in detail (though of course they did take a lot of ground down south) around Kyiv and Kharkiv.

I think they really believed they would be welcomed with open arms (like the recently liberated areas welcome the Ukrainian army).

Certainly that was a gravely mistaken ideological expectation. But it doesn't explain the knock-on-all-doors strategy. I think they were trying to overwhelm the government as quickly as possible, according to their other main expectation: that the government would collapse/evacuate leaving a vacuum for them to occupy.

I remember the initial news (posted long ago in this thread) and thinking, whoa, what?? A full-court press?? We had been disputing how much logistics the Rusks had built up to sustain an attack on a limited front, and suddenly they were operating on all the fronts?!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 13, 2022, 10:16:13 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on September 13, 2022, 09:17:13 AM
Possible Breaking News: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1569684401134632963 {Note from Tripoli: I am not saying this is true, I'm just relaying it.
Reading the thread indicates that there is some debate over its veracity....}


ROAD CLOSED? Jason Jay Smart
@officejjsmart
reports that friends in Moscow have texted that: "The Ring Road around Moscow is closed by the National Guard". And that, " [he] hasn't seen anything like this since the 1991 coup".  Developing.
Waiting to see this confirmed in an official news...but this would be bad
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 13, 2022, 10:37:19 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/he-has-flung-our-country-back-into-the-cold-war-era-kremlin-officials-ask-putin-to-resign/ar-AA11KpIR?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=3421acb20d31439c8836fb5b8a6e4d69

Ouch! -- Step x, piss off the Chechnyans??

Quote"We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of President Vladimir Putin harm the future of Russia and its citizens," a translation of the petition reads. "We demand the resignation of Vladimir Putin from the post of President of the Russian Federation!"

In the open letter to Putin, deputies from Moscow's Lomonosovsky district recalled that Putin's leadership began with "good reforms" but that as time marched onward, "everything went wrong."

Even Ramzan Kadyrov, Putin's key ally in Chechnya, has started lobbing criticism at Russia's military.

"Mistakes were made," Kadyrov said on Telegram. "And if today or tomorrow changes are not made to the strategy of the 'special military operation,' I will be forced to turn to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, the leadership of the country to explain to them the situation that is really happening on the ground."


Kadryrov better be careful, or he might slip and fall off his superyacht...

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-executive-falls-off-boat-in-latest-mystery-businessman-death-2022-9

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 13, 2022, 11:03:54 AM
My point from last night was, barring a total collapse of the Russian military, and assuming this war will continue, how will Ukraine hold onto all that land they've just taken back? Especially if they now plan to strike in the south? Do they even have enough strength to hold what they have? And do they have time enough before the weather turns on them?

Whatever remnant of the Russian forces that escaped back to their side of the border, along with new levies, will be back again soon and if not stronger, then certainly wiser. What's Zelensky's best play here, hold everything, or find a shorter more defendable line for the winter? And anybody heard anything about they're losses?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 13, 2022, 11:15:59 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 13, 2022, 11:03:54 AM
My point from last night was, barring a total collapse of the Russian military, and assuming this war will continue, how will Ukraine hold onto all that land they've just taken back? Especially if they now plan to strike in the south? Do they even have enough strength to hold what they have? And do they have time enough before the weather turns on them?

Whatever remnant of the Russian forces that escaped back to their side of the border, along with new levies, will be back again soon and if not stronger, then certainly wiser. What's Zelensky's best play here, hold everything, or find a shorter more defendable line for the winter? And anybody heard anything about they're losses?

There is a pretty good article from a couple of months ago in Foreign Affairs that lays out some ideas of what a Ukrainian victory might look like from the political POV: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-06-06/what-if-ukraine-wins .  ALso, Bloomberg has an article (Which I have very quickly summarized/cut and pasted the juicy bits below) which looks at some of these issues from today's POV.  The most interesting point, IRT your question, is the decimation of the troops from the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics:

•   Putin and the Possibility of Defeat in Ukraine  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-12/in-ukraine-russia-pays-the-price-for-not-factoring-in-negative-scenarios  Key points:
o   The current Russian setback, too, is strategically significant.
   The loss of the Kharkiv positions turns the goal of encircling Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region into a pipe dream: Russian troops can no longer press on from the north.
   the Russians couldn't avoid damage to their already low morale.
o   Putin's soldiers are digging in on the eastern bank of the river Oskil, but the defensive positions lack depth, just as they did around Izyum.
o   Russia's biggest mistake in the  campaign will now likely come back to haunt them. Since the retreat from Kyiv and northern Ukraine in April, the Russian command has used the fighting forces of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics as cannon fodder. By doing so, they have lost thousands of the only soldiers who had skin in Putin's game: These fighting-age men were anti-Ukrainian by definition — and committed to combat as fiercely as Ukrainians themselves. Few Russian soldiers could match their determination. When Kyiv began its counterattack, the Luhansk and Donetsk fighters had been nearly eliminated by attrition.
   Now, the Luhansk People's Republic, "apart from frontline areas, is probably empty of manpower," tweeted Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka, one of the most astute observers of the campaign. Fighting-age males were drafted in large numbers in the past few months, he said, meaning "there are no men to fight in Luhansk."
   Now, even those locals who otherwise would have welcomed a Russian takeover will withhold their support. They will either lay low or aid Ukrainian guerillas. The loud assurances of many a Russian functionary since February that "Russia is here for good" ring hollow as the cars of fleeing collaborators line up on the border near Belgorod.               
o   Further supplies of sophisticated Western weapons are now assured for Ukraine. Kyiv has proved it's able to fight back and win, so there's no reason for NATO to doubt the efficiency of its aid.
o   In Russia, meanwhile, an angry and aggrieved extreme nationalist community is rapidly turning into a threat to the regime. ...Given the ultranationalists' high support in Russia's all-powerful law enforcement agencies, it's conceivable that discontent may be brewing among the very forces on which Putin has relied to hold on to power.
o   It's too early to predict a military rout for the entire Russian force in Ukraine, let alone a regime collapse. But suddenly, those are glimmers of possibility thanks to what is essentially a local Ukrainian success. This is a consequence of the most fundamental flaw in the thinking behind Putin's Ukraine campaign — if there was any thinking done at all amid all the imperialist emotion. Russia never took its opponent seriously, never even considered Ukraine a viable entity. So it never contemplated the possibility of defeat.
   No plans were made for pessimistic scenarios — and none seem to exist today. In a war, the side that isn't prepared for setbacks can come apart at the first signs of trouble; overconfidence and panic are opposite sides of the same coin. Russians went in without the will to win, but they were also not primed for the risk of losing. Any setback then becomes a catastrophic blow to national pride. This will rankle even if Russia manages to halt Ukraine's current momentum. These factors could be the ingredients of a historic defeat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 13, 2022, 11:18:38 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 13, 2022, 10:37:19 AM


Kadryrov better be careful, or he might slip and fall off his superyacht...



We'd better hope so. 

Kadryov's solution to this isn't to seek a peace.  He is insisting that the Russians start the mass destruction of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and mass reprisals against Ukrainians in the occupied territories. 

His ideas are spreading in Russian media.  Check out their twitter and TV and you'll see a lot of Russian talking heads that are saying that the solution now is to start measures of mass  bombardment and extermination.   They may be getting their way, the last 24 hours have shown revenge strikes against Kharkiv's civilian infrastructure with no other purpose than to deny the city power and heat for the winter.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 13, 2022, 11:48:21 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 13, 2022, 11:03:54 AM
My point from last night was, barring a total collapse of the Russian military, and assuming this war will continue, how will Ukraine hold onto all that land they've just taken back? Especially if they now plan to strike in the south? Do they even have enough strength to hold what they have? And do they have time enough before the weather turns on them?

Whatever remnant of the Russian forces that escaped back to their side of the border, along with new levies, will be back again soon and if not stronger, then certainly wiser. What's Zelensky's best play here, hold everything, or find a shorter more defendable line for the winter? And anybody heard anything about they're losses?

Well, if you look at the area in the north they've liberated, they've largely managed to shorten their frontage, and if they advance will continue to do so as they press against the northern borders of Donetsk and Luhansk.  The fact that they have the Russian border to their backs isn't particularly an issue because, well, the forces that retreated back over the border did so in full disaray and largely abandoned their weapons and heavy equipment. 

I saw a report on DW last night where they showed the vast stores that the Russians simply abandoned.  They were not retreating in good order as the Russian MoD said, they were routed and left as a rabble. 

Further, the defense analysts on the DW report confirmed what others have been saying.  There are no large effective formations being formed or in standby to be shunted into the line to stop this or threaten the flanks of the advance.  The Russians had no reserves.  In fact, many of the units the Ukrainians were attacking were the reserves, and were units that were being rotated off the front line for rearmament that is now not coming. 

A counterattack at Kupyansk was immediately thwarted, and DW further reported that "The Russians are retreating in the north in some places faster than the Ukrainians can advance."

Now, this presents the challenge that the Ukes have to actually retake their territory and then shift their mechanized forces back to proper axes of advance to fully take advantage of the situation.   This takes time and yes, there's no doubt that they're vulnerable to counterattacks until they slow down and consolidate.  However, the Russians have to have forces available to counterattack with. 

Currently their army is either locked down in the south, stuck in offensive operations in the center, and routed in the north.  To fully counterattack they'd have to pull a Patton, take forces off an offensive, shift their advance entirely, and try to hit the Ukrainians in their southern flank north of Donetsk.   I don't see how that's going to happen. 

And Winter is coming.  That's going to slow operations down significantly on both sides and give the Ukrainians time to consolidate their gains. 

So...I think there's a very good chance that the gains in the north will hold unless the Russians have a pocket trained reserve army up their sleeve.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 13, 2022, 12:35:39 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 13, 2022, 11:18:38 AM
They may be getting their way, the last 24 hours have shown revenge strikes against Kharkiv's civilian infrastructure with no other purpose than to deny the city power and heat for the winter.

Also known as "Monday". ;) The Russians haven't been wary about doing this sort of thing before (even in cases where they might have benefited from taking over things intact.) But yeah, they still have lottttts of room to escalate, too.  :-\  :hide:

I would almost like to see the hardliners try a true mobilization, though, like they keep whining for: trying to organize and keep those troops going would be exponentially nightmarish for them. Time to bring out the T-34s and glue on some reactive armor with empty plugs covered over with cardboard sometimes!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 13, 2022, 12:36:56 PM
Last night on Russian state TV (The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov) :

Appearing on Russia's NTV show The Meeting Place on Monday, policy analyst Viktor Olevich surmised: "Unfortunately, the situation is difficult. Can we say that the Russian forces moved closer to meeting the goals and carrying out the tasks set by the president at the beginning of the special operation—or did they get further away? Obviously, we're now further away."

Bogdan Bezpalko, member of the Council for Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, was even more outspoken. "For two months, Ukrainian Armed Forces and military equipment have been massing in that area, all Telegram channels have been writing about it. Where was our damn reconnaissance? All of their heads should be laying on Putin's desk, hacked off at the base... Of course, this is a tactical defeat. I hope it will be very sobering."
Political scientist Sergey Mikheyev described recent developments in Kharkhiv as "a serious failure," on the part of Russia. "Call it 'regrouping' or whatever else... This is our most serious defeat during the last six months, and the most significant success of our adversary... Perhaps this failure is beneficial, because being so obvious, now it's impossible to pull the wool over our eyes, pretending that everything is wonderful," he said.

Mikheyev argued that failures would likely prompt "serious people" to make some "radical decisions," like striking Ukraine's civilian infrastructure—a move that is often praised on Russian state TV, with propagandists promoting the idea of causing a total blackout that would deprive all of Ukraine of roads, bridges, electricity and running water.

Solovyov was unwilling to concede Russia's defeat to the Ukrainian troops and claimed that American and British soldiers were covertly fighting in their ranks. "In the process of preparing the battle-ready Ukrainian troops, it turns out they've been rapidly turning darker in color and becoming fluent English speakers. They're becoming indistinguishable from the mercenaries... Some of them have a Southern drawl, others speak with a British accent. Stop pretending already," he said. The idea of being defeated by NATO, as opposed to this smaller neighboring country, seems to sweeten the pot for many of the Kremlin's cheerleaders.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 13, 2022, 01:05:34 PM
In attacking everywhere, I think the Putinistas anticipated something like their previous occupations of the Donbas, Georgia, Syria, or other similar places.  It was more of a land-based "shock and awe" approach to occupation than an actual military campaign to fight through organized resistance.

For the last several months, it was obvious that the Ukrainians were running down their inventory of Russian equipment (and particularly artillery ammunition).  They basically had to keep fighting the war while they were swapping out all sorts of key logistical chains.  They're clearly still fighting with a lot of Russian-made equipment (which seems to be performing admirably when maintained and used by well-motivated troops), but my bet is that they needed to amass a critical volume of materiel (and particularly ammo) before they could resume warfighting.

It'll be interesting to see where this stops.  Were I Ukraine, I think I would cross the Russian border by 5 or 10 miles in a few key places, then stop and channel their attacks elsewhere.  It would drive home to the Russian people the fact that Putin's Army had been vanquished in the Northeast, but deny Russia the whole "We're fighting for our survival" excuse to go nuclear.

I only hope that the Russians don't go more extreme than they already have.  I also hope that, if the Russians do go more extreme (and particularly if they go nuclear), the world holds the Chinese accountable for helping to enable them these last seveb months.  That's probably going too far, though...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 13, 2022, 01:28:04 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 13, 2022, 01:05:34 PM

It'll be interesting to see where this stops.  Were I Ukraine, I think I would cross the Russian border by 5 or 10 miles in a few key places, then stop and channel their attacks elsewhere.  It would drive home to the Russian people the fact that Putin's Army had been vanquished in the Northeast, but deny Russia the whole "We're fighting for our survival" excuse to go nuclear.


I'm willing to bet money that they've been told by NATO not to do that. 

NATO does not want to see German Marders rolling through undisputedly Russian territory.   

Those border areas are likely being made "safe" for the Ukrainians by what I'm sure is a massive exchange of surveillance data gathered by western spy satellites.   If the Russians start massing for a push in an area along the border the Ukes are going to know about it, but that flow of intelligence and gear is likely contingent on making sure there's no escalation by crossing the border with troops. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 13, 2022, 01:50:47 PM
crossing the border = existential threat to Russia = possible use of nukes
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 13, 2022, 02:20:47 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 13, 2022, 08:56:21 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 13, 2022, 08:44:35 AM
I'm not sure what the point was in attacking everywhere -- which I think was
their main problem -- they just set themselves up for defeat in detail (though of course they did take a lot of ground down south) around Kyiv and Kharkiv.

I think they really believed they would be welcomed with open arms (like the recently liberated areas welcome the Ukrainian army).

I believe that was their undoing. Mentally they were not prepared for any significant resistance. Everyone believed the propaganda.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 13, 2022, 02:38:52 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 13, 2022, 11:03:54 AM
My point from last night was, barring a total collapse of the Russian military, and assuming this war will continue, how will Ukraine hold onto all that land they've just taken back? Especially if they now plan to strike in the south? Do they even have enough strength to hold what they have? And do they have time enough before the weather turns on them?

Whatever remnant of the Russian forces that escaped back to their side of the border, along with new levies, will be back again soon and if not stronger, then certainly wiser. What's Zelensky's best play here, hold everything, or find a shorter more defendable line for the winter? And anybody heard anything about they're losses?

I am not certain it will go that far. The UAF have huge momentum and they are rolling up the Soviet defences in the North and Central. Supply to the Soviets will be none existence. Logistics wins wars. The Soviets are done. IMO it now is a matter of time. Depends now on just how low the troops morale is.

I think the UAF will proceed as far as possible, hold onto the lines of communication once the rains really start and starve the Soviet troops out and accept all the surrendering forces.

Stepping back a bit, the UAF have performed incredibly well; supported by Western intel and high tech weapons.
The Soviet Airforce on the other hand, like WTF? And mean it seriously... W.T.F.? Canada and its CF-18s would have done better/accomplished more. Not sure what neutered them throughout the conflict, IMO there should have been 100s of sorties a day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 13, 2022, 03:32:02 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 13, 2022, 02:38:52 PM
The Soviet Airforce on the other hand, like WTF?

Russian Su-25 Crashes in Crimea (should be recent footage).




From the comments : 'It's not a crash, it's a special landing operation'.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 13, 2022, 03:43:34 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 13, 2022, 01:05:34 PM

For the last several months, it was obvious that the Ukrainians were running down their inventory of Russian equipment (and particularly artillery ammunition).  They basically had to keep fighting the war while they were swapping out all sorts of key logistical chains.  They're clearly still fighting with a lot of Russian-made equipment (which seems to be performing admirably when maintained and used by well-motivated troops), but my bet is that they needed to amass a critical volume of materiel (and particularly ammo) before they could resume warfighting.


  The fact that the Russians knew that the Ukrainians had to swap out their Soviet-era gear for Western weapons might explain how the Russians missed the build-up around Kharkiv -- they may have assumed the new gear was just replacing things rather than being brought in for an offensive.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 07:12:35 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 13, 2022, 11:03:54 AM
My point from last night was, barring a total collapse of the Russian military, and assuming this war will continue, how will Ukraine hold onto all that land they've just taken back? Especially if they now plan to strike in the south? Do they even have enough strength to hold what they have? And do they have time enough before the weather turns on them?

Whatever remnant of the Russian forces that escaped back to their side of the border, along with new levies, will be back again soon and if not stronger, then certainly wiser. What's Zelensky's best play here, hold everything, or find a shorter more defendable line for the winter? And anybody heard anything about they're losses?

well here in the real world the Ukranians have been striking in the south while ALSO running their offensive in the north.  you seem to think its the Ukraine thats suffering massive casualties in both manpower and equipment.  there is also absolutely no evidence that the russians will come back stronger.  :DD  they cant even replace combat losses with modern kit and their conscripts are refusing to go to the Ukraine.  methinks you need to stop getting war news from tucker the taint tanner.  O0  and they sure as hell aren't going to come back wiser if they haven't learned a damn thing in 7 months of warfare.  its an institutionally bankrupt system.

here is a full list of equipment lost by both sides.  its very conservative as each thing is verified by multiple sources.
full list of aviation losses for both sides as of Sunday:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html

full list of qround equipment lost by the Ukraine so far:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

full list of ground equipment lost by the soviet pig fuckers so far:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 07:28:37 PM
QuoteIt'll be interesting to see where this stops.  Were I Ukraine, I think I would cross the Russian border by 5 or 10 miles in a few key places, then stop and channel their attacks elsewhere.  It would drive home to the Russian people the fact that Putin's Army had been vanquished in the Northeast, but deny Russia the whole "We're fighting for our survival" excuse to go nuclear.

fwiw the governor or whatever its called in Belgorod told the border towns to evacuate.

QuoteIMO there should have been 100s of sorties a day.

they actually have been running between 100 to 250 a day.  the issue is that they arent strike packages, nor are they coherent and theyre using dumb munitions.  NATO for comparison  would be running at least 500 if not more.
some napkin math:  210 days at an average of 150 sorties a day for russia in merely 31500 sorties spread out over the entirety of the a 1200 mile front.  in the first month of the second Iraqi war we ran 41400 in a much more coordinated fashion.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 07:43:24 PM
for those of us that like comedy:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1569525207274237952

L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 07:55:46 PM
good read:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/with-successful-kharkiv-operation-ukraine-turns-the-war-in-its-favor

Illia Ponomarenko has become THE standout journalist of this conflict.  expect to be reading his books about it in the future.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 13, 2022, 08:34:12 PM
'NATO does not want to see German Marders rolling through undisputedly Russian territory.'

^The great fear (Russian fear) that started this whole thing!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on September 13, 2022, 08:35:16 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 07:55:46 PM
good read:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/with-successful-kharkiv-operation-ukraine-turns-the-war-in-its-favor

Illia Ponomarenko has become THE standout journalist of this conflict.  expect to be reading his books about it in the future.

Tucker just caters to the magahatters.  Their platform is anything to make Biden look bad at any cost, including throwing Ukraine under the bus.  You can't get through to them that this affects the next 50 years but hey......thank god the Ukrainians are making head way and silencing the nay sayers.  I even have seen intel experts say that the fsb is trying to influence  western conservatives like the lepens and trumps.  So if your a magahatter and your on some poopoo anti Ukraine rant, you gota ask yourself......am I doing Putin's work ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 08:37:53 PM
with all the various western equipment currently in the Ukraine I can only imagine the efforts of their logistic system as is it.
when its all over and theyve won theyll have all the best of western tanks and apcs.  now isnt the time to add that logistic
burden. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on September 13, 2022, 08:38:57 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 13, 2022, 08:34:12 PM
'NATO does not want to see German Marders rolling through undisputedly Russian territory.'

^The great fear (Russian fear) that started this whole thing!!


Well.....Sweden and Finland to nato kinda of means this war has no point anymore.  Russia cut off it's nose to spite it's face.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 08:46:50 PM
in 1989 I never thought I'd get to see the soviet union fall twice.   <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 09:45:11 PM
its just so fun to keep reading.  :hug:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcgpcfJXkAANw0s?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on September 13, 2022, 10:00:10 PM
Quote from: Skoop on September 13, 2022, 08:35:16 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 07:55:46 PM
good read:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/with-successful-kharkiv-operation-ukraine-turns-the-war-in-its-favor

Illia Ponomarenko has become THE standout journalist of this conflict.  expect to be reading his books about it in the future.

Tucker just caters to the magahatters.  Their platform is anything to make Biden look bad at any cost, including throwing Ukraine under the bus.  You can't get through to them that this affects the next 50 years but hey......thank god the Ukrainians are making head way and silencing the nay sayers.  I even have seen intel experts say that the fsb is trying to influence  western conservatives like the lepens and trumps.  So if your a magahatter and your on some poopoo anti Ukraine rant, you gota ask yourself......am I doing Putin's work ?

According to the Washington Post, and what the intelligence community has known about for years, you are doing Putin's work.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1569786833453850624?s=20&t=RUFVXWcxoURt2SfgLQlVvg



Groggy
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 10:39:02 PM
1. its inside a paywall

2. outside the scope of this thread.

its been extremely difficult to not get into the whole political spectrum of this and get me banned and JH stroking out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 13, 2022, 10:45:44 PM
Gee Star, I'm sorry if I spoiled the woody you had about killing Russians. My question was an honest one concerning the possible continuing war and the possibility of the Ukraine having too much land to defend effectively. In other words, to you the most dangerous kind, one you don't agree with. My question didn't come from Tucker Carlson. It came out of my own feeling that this war isn't over. Russia still has a whole hell of a lot of men, tanks, planes, and rockets. And Nukes. If they have the will to continue, they certainly can, even with all the experts saying they cannot. So how does wondering about strategies openly constitute treason in some people's minds? It's because people like that think for themselves instead of following blindly what self-loving loudmouths spout.

Watching Tucker Carlson doesn't make you a Putin-Lover or a voice for the Kremlin. That was actually Hillary that paid for Russian dis-information remember? And just for the record, Tucker's been right a hell-of-a-lot more often than you have Star. But nearly as funny I'm sure. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on September 13, 2022, 11:14:26 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 10:39:02 PM
1. its inside a paywall

2. outside the scope of this thread.

its been extremely difficult to not get into the whole political spectrum of this and get me banned and JH stroking out.

Fair point.

In my defense, it was purely a reply to:

1. Tucker

2. magahatters

3. "intel experts say that the fsb is trying to influence western conservatives"

I'll keep my future posts in the realm of the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 14, 2022, 01:26:06 AM
Oryx lists 101 visually confirmed tank losses during the Organised Regrouping Definitively Not A Rout of the RuAF for the past week.

Would be interesting to have a listing of how many of those were captured. So going back with Wayback Machine to Tuesday last week, Oryx lists 1010 lost tanks (+102) and 291 (+62) captured tanks.

That's two tank battalions supplied to Ukraine. Not everyone will be in running condition of course, then again, these are just the visually confirmed losses.

Quote#UkraineWar: #Russia is visually confirmed to have lost 101 tanks in the past seven days 🇷🇺

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1569809013675630594
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 14, 2022, 04:55:13 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 07:55:46 PM
good read:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/with-successful-kharkiv-operation-ukraine-turns-the-war-in-its-favor

Illia Ponomarenko has become THE standout journalist of this conflict.  expect to be reading his books about it in the future.
Another great summary of the Kharkiv operation so far by Mykola Bielieskov who can be found at twitter as @MBielieskov

Ukrainian Balakliya-Kupyansk Offensive: Sequence of Events, Mechanics and Consequences (https://jamestown.org/program/ukrainian-balakliya-kupyansk-offensive-sequence-of-events-mechanics-and-consequences/)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 14, 2022, 06:20:58 AM
Quote from: Skoop on September 13, 2022, 08:38:57 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 13, 2022, 08:34:12 PM
'NATO does not want to see German Marders rolling through undisputedly Russian territory.'

^The great fear (Russian fear) that started this whole thing!!


Well.....Sweden and Finland to nato kinda of means this war has no point anymore.  Russia cut off it's nose to spite it's face.

  And the European union has proposed it should include Georgia (which sort of isn't exactly in Europe as it is usually visualized, but which does have Russian "Peacekeepers" attending to its status as a place that
might be in Europe sort of)

  And of course, the internet being the internet wondered what "race" the Georgians were (since they are in the Caucasus are they perhaps "Caucasian"?...who's to say?)

  According to wikipeidia, Georgia has a long way to go:

The EU asked Georgia to complete economic reforms including more investment in education, renewable energy generation, and transportation. Requested political reforms included reduced political polarization, election reforms, judicial reform, stronger anti-corruption institutions, implementing "de-oligarchisation", reducing organized crime, protect journalists from government interference and criminal threats, protect vulnerable groups against criminal human rights violations, improve gender equality, reduce violence against women, increase decision-making influence of civil society, and make the Public Defender more independent.[110]
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 14, 2022, 06:42:04 AM
Russian 'peacekeepers' in Georgia is very 2008 and is also very similar to German peacekeepers anywhere circa 1938.

Not to be outdone, Armenia and Azerbaijan smacked each other around the last couple of days and dozens of troops on both sides were killed. Russian 'peacekeepers' are on the ground there too.

Please keep political bs out of this thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 07:10:33 AM
QuoteRussia still has a whole hell of a lot of men, tanks, planes, and rockets. And Nukes. If they have the will to continue, they certainly can, even with all the experts saying they cannot.

but they don't, that's what you don't seem to want to acknowledge.  it's also not free thinking to simply ignore rafts of information that have been provided to you proving that point.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 14, 2022, 07:22:14 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 14, 2022, 06:20:58 AM
And the European union has proposed it should include Georgia

They take part in the Eurovision Song Contest.  How much more European can you be  :).

In 2009 they had to withdraw from the contest (held in Moscow) because they didn't want to change the lyrics of their song :



The chorus of the Georgian song is:

We don't wanna put in,
Cuz negative move,
It's killin' the groove,
I'm gonna try to shoot in,
Some disco tonight,
Boogie with you.


And that was blasphemy to the Russian organizers (singing live it sounded more like 'Shoot him' what didn't help).

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2009/mar/11/georgia-eurovision-song-contest-2009
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 14, 2022, 09:54:01 AM
A more sobering article from a Ukrainian journalist can be found here.  It acknowledges the recent gains, but still sees a long and uncertain road ahead for the Ukrainian people.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/14/ukrainians-russian-occupiers-ambush-enemy-guns-resistance

One relevant passage here for those who are allergic to following hyperlinks!   ;D

QuoteMake no mistake, though: it's not an easy path. Ukrainian soldiers are fighting and dying. Scrolling through my Facebook feed, I learned about the death of a fellow soldier of two of my friends, killed in the Kharkiv region during the past few days, and read about members of the national opera joining the army.

I have found that the most excitement is expressed by international experts, diplomats and correspondents. Ukrainians are hopeful but wary. Every one of us has a friend, a relative or somebody we know fighting on the ground at the moment, somebody whom we are unable to contact, or who might be sent on assignment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 14, 2022, 10:17:58 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 14, 2022, 09:54:01 AM
A more sobering article from a Ukrainian journalist can be found here.  It acknowledges the recent gains, but still sees a long and uncertain road ahead for the Ukrainian people.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/14/ukrainians-russian-occupiers-ambush-enemy-guns-resistance

One relevant passage here for those who are allergic to following hyperlinks!   ;D

QuoteMake no mistake, though: it's not an easy path. Ukrainian soldiers are fighting and dying. Scrolling through my Facebook feed, I learned about the death of a fellow soldier of two of my friends, killed in the Kharkiv region during the past few days, and read about members of the national opera joining the army.

I have found that the most excitement is expressed by international experts, diplomats and correspondents. Ukrainians are hopeful but wary. Every one of us has a friend, a relative or somebody we know fighting on the ground at the moment, somebody whom we are unable to contact, or who might be sent on assignment.

  Yes.  I read the whole article twice.  Good points.  Another sobering thought is that the Russians might wise up and come to some reasonable objectives.  I'm not sure how that would look, right now Peskov the press-man for the Kremlin says Ukraine should forget about being assisted by the west and it would be much safer for Ukraine to just surrender (or actually he doesn't say that explicitly which
I guess is supposed to make it sound more menacing) because the "Kyiv regime" somehow knows what the Russians really want (which is more than the Russians seem to have ever known -- what?  Extermination?  Regime Change?  Half the country?  What?  Nobody knows and certainly the Russians have no idea what they want).  So if the Russians could figure out what they are doing that might be good or bad for Ukraine.  Who's to say?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 14, 2022, 10:23:22 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 09:45:11 PM
its just so fun to keep reading.  :hug:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcgpcfJXkAANw0s?format=jpg&name=medium)


years to rebuild .....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 14, 2022, 10:42:06 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 07:10:33 AM
QuoteRussia still has a whole hell of a lot of men, tanks, planes, and rockets. And Nukes. If they have the will to continue, they certainly can, even with all the experts saying they cannot.

but they don't, that's what you don't seem to want to acknowledge.  it's also not free thinking to simply ignore rafts of information that have been provided to you proving that point.

I remember thinking that the Soviets must be holding back on the numbers of men and equipment. Then slowly realizing that it wasn't going to show up because they didn't have it. What they had they were pissing away very stupidly.

RIP 1GTA - let down by leadership rot, stupidity and corruption.



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 14, 2022, 11:12:58 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 07:10:33 AM
QuoteRussia still has a whole hell of a lot of men, tanks, planes, and rockets. And Nukes. If they have the will to continue, they certainly can, even with all the experts saying they cannot.

but they don't, that's what you don't seem to want to acknowledge.  it's also not free thinking to simply ignore rafts of information that have been provided to you proving that point.

Russia definitely still has a whole hell of a lot of men -- mobilization hasn't kicked in yet. They also have a whole hell of a lot of nukes.

Not sure about their numbers of planes and tanks in reserve; we know they were scraping the bottom of the barrel sending tanks to the Ukraine -- and up until I heard about the 1st Guards Tank Army, I thought they were keeping their elite reserve out of play. No idea about rockets and arty still remaining in reserve.

What they definitely don't have is logistics to support a bigger push, and that's going to take serious time (maybe several years, maybe a decade-plus!) to develop, especially if it's going to be done right. Which they'll have to learn to do right, and be motivated to do right. Right now, those are super iffy. Thus I've been half-seriously joking that I'd like to see them go for mobilization and suffer the results thereby: suicide by mobilization!

There's also the question of how much of their reserve key equipment (tanks and planes, probably also arty, maybe also nukes) are even functional in storage. We've seen problems with stuff they've pulled out to send to invade the Uks. It's like the Russians are a cargo cult at this point...! (Even the Warhammer 40K version of "orks" look more competent!) But how much of that is endemic across Russia, and how much are they keeping up to par instead? The condition of the 1st GTA doesn't bode well for them as an example.

On the flip side, the question about holding ground was asked in relation to how it's a lot easier to concentrate force for points of attack than to create and maintain defense for borders in depth: thus, do the Uks have depth-defense capability remaining? (Thus also why jokes about the Uks taking Moscow are so funny: the Russians probably don't have defense in depth, so the ridiculous seems plausible now!) I assume the Uks at least have the potential to build it up, but how long will that take? They have a lonnnnnnng border with hostile forces now that Russia has gone to war (for want of a better word ;) ), and they're making that border longer, not shorter, as they retake ground. The good news is that the population of Crimea might be helpful (I guess? or that's my impression??); but we know the Uks are also hot for retaking the Donetsk/Lubansk (they've already moved over the borders in some places). How likely will those populations be to cooperate with defensive preparations to hold the ground? It might shift to more hostile populations the farther eastward the Uks go.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 14, 2022, 11:31:29 AM
Yeah.  The Russians have plenty of people that they can put in uniform.  They probably even have plenty of rifles, even if they're imported from China or North Korea nowadays.

It's unclear if they have the institutional capability to find their ass with their own two hands.  Aside from a handful of well-trained units (facing varying degrees of combat exhaustion by now), it's unclear how much of a credible fighting force they have left.

The extent of the Russian failure here hasn't just been an indictment of their leadership or their military.  It's been a damning indictment of how inept their whole system is.  The Soviet Union fell for much the same reason.

That said, even an ineptly-executed nuclear war would still plunge all of Europe (or all of the world) into some unimaginably bad situations.  While it seems almost unthinkable that the Russians would resort to such extremes, it seemed almost unthinkable that they'd be getting their asses kicked in Ukraine over and over when they first invaded in February.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 14, 2022, 11:39:03 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 14, 2022, 11:31:29 AM
The extent of the Russian failure here hasn't just been an indictment of their leadership or their military.  It's been a damning indictment of how inept their whole system is.

Very well put.  O0


Edited to add: we were hearing stories back in February about how the Soviet military is (understandably, in context) being constantly bullied by the Russian gangster network, to keep the military from rising up to throw out the kleptocracy. We know the top military guys are compromised, but they also very vocally want Russia to ranger up to world-class ass-kicking capability. (Spetznaz up? hard to say if that's even a relevant comparison anymore! -- which is another illustration of how bad off they are.)

That isn't impossible, strictly speaking, but first they've got to get out from under gangster rule; and then they've got to build a true industrial base; then a true logistical base.

In 25 or 30 years (five or six Five-Year Hero Project Plans), they could be ready to go. But in today's world, you've got to have a stably functional nation at all levels to compete militarily. Not so sure they can pull that off, from the momentum of their past history. Stalin nearly did, but he also murdered Russia in several ways to get as far as he did (and had lots of western help along the way) before the Nazis invaded. They need to do better than Stalin, and that means doing better than gangsters running the country into the ground.

The Paradox player side-of-my-mind looks at all their so-far-wasted potential and wants to have a go at it!  :coolsmiley: But all things considered, maybe it's just as well for the world that they never quite got off the ground.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 14, 2022, 12:17:13 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 14, 2022, 11:31:29 AM
Yeah.  The Russians have plenty of people that they can put in uniform.  They probably even have plenty of rifles, even if they're imported from China or North Korea nowadays.

It's unclear if they have the institutional capability to find their ass with their own two hands.  Aside from a handful of well-trained units (facing varying degrees of combat exhaustion by now), it's unclear how much of a credible fighting force they have left.

The extent of the Russian failure here hasn't just been an indictment of their leadership or their military.  It's been a damning indictment of how inept their whole system is.  The Soviet Union fell for much the same reason.


  Well, on the other hand, let's suppose that what they were aiming at in February 2022, was to get a regime in place like what they have in Belarus.  Belarus isn't doing much of anything but there it is
more or less under Putin's supervision if not exactly under his control.  At least it's not working hard to be neutral unlike say Khazakstan.
  It's hard to say why they went off track with that.  I mean from their point of view adding another Belarus to the world shouldn't be a big deal.  Maybe this is the thing (nudge-nudge) that the
Ukrainians should have understood.  I think the Russians sort of got stuck with the threat dial stuck on "MAXIMUM" because they thought that would work -- I guess that backfired or something.
  Okay so...right.  Now, what have they got?  Belarus is still Belarus (so far so good)...they still have Crimea and Transititria and most of those two other quasi-annexed regions.  Surely a ceasefire right
now would be a good idea right?  I mean even if they have nukes and whatnot, they still can supervise Belarus and hold Crimea and stuff if they get a ceasefire right now.  There's nothing at all to be gained by bringing up more stuff to go on dumping HE on Ukraine, right?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on September 14, 2022, 12:25:12 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 13, 2022, 10:45:44 PM
Gee Star, I'm sorry if I spoiled the woody you had about killing Russians. My question was an honest one concerning the possible continuing war and the possibility of the Ukraine having too much land to defend effectively. In other words, to you the most dangerous kind, one you don't agree with. My question didn't come from Tucker Carlson. It came out of my own feeling that this war isn't over. Russia still has a whole hell of a lot of men, tanks, planes, and rockets. And Nukes. If they have the will to continue, they certainly can, even with all the experts saying they cannot. So how does wondering about strategies openly constitute treason in some people's minds? It's because people like that think for themselves instead of following blindly what self-loving loudmouths spout.

Watching Tucker Carlson doesn't make you a Putin-Lover or a voice for the Kremlin. That was actually Hillary that paid for Russian dis-information remember? And just for the record, Tucker's been right a hell-of-a-lot more often than you have Star. But nearly as funny I'm sure.

I watch tucker as well, in fact if you pull up the rant about China buying up insane amounts of US real estate recently, I'd 100% agree with him on that.

I just wanted to point out as a conservative, I've been finding myself at odds with other conservatives on the issue of Ukraine specifically, and stars tucker link pointed that out.  The summer stalemate with inflation in the US was creating some wavering rhetoric that I was noticing among  the conservative echo chambers.  But there's plenty of historical lessons where the battlefield influences politics.

Ok, enough politics from me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 14, 2022, 01:06:57 PM
Carlson's views have always been more toward the Libertarian side of things, less than true Conservative. I also don't agree with him on all issues including some of his positions on this war as well. But he's never taken a pro-Putin position and opposes the war in general as none of the America's business though Europe's, yes, certainly. He has questioned the cost of the war and whether or not all the money and weaponry is getting into the correct hands and will make a real difference.

The discussion of where the war goes from here is all I was trying to prompt. Rather than ask questions that make people uncomfortable, I'll simply say, in my opinion, Russia's not done here. The prize of Ukraine and all her resources is too great a lure to quit now even without a Tank Army or two. Short of the Russian Army turning it's guns, ( I know in the army you're supposed to say,'Rifles') on their own leadership this war will go on. And I'd rather have the Ukes in a better position defensively than scattered  all to hell and gone trying to hold every village. But, hey, it IS their land so...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 14, 2022, 01:36:49 PM
https://www.newsweek.com/putins-key-man-artic-found-dead-after-falling-overboard-1742218

The bizarre incident came just a few months after Igor Nosov, the corporation's director, died at the age of 43. Russian media reported at the time, citing those who knew Nosov, that he died of a stroke.

It also happened just a few days after Pechorin took part in the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok attended by Putin.

Pechorin now joins a long list of Russian executives to die in strange and mysterious circumstances.

Ravil Maganov, the chairman of the board of Lukoil, Russia's second-largest oil company, died in a plunge from a hospital window in Moscow earlier this month. Several other gas and oil execs had died in the months prior, including, to name just a few, Alexander Subbotin, a former top Lukoil executive who was found dead in May; Vladislav Avayev, the former vice president of Gazprombank, found dead of a gunshot wound in Moscow in April, along with his wife and daughter; Sergei Protosenya, the former deputy chairman of gas company Novatek, found hanging in a villa in Spain in April; and Gazprom executive Alexander Tyulyakov, found hanged in his St. Petersburg garage in February.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-nikolayevich-sungorkin-ally-of-vladimir-putin-dies-of-apparent-stroke-on-business-trip?ref=home

Another top ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin has died this week, this time of an alleged "stroke" while on a business trip in the village of Roshchino in Russia's far east region.

It is stroke season in Russia ...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 14, 2022, 01:45:06 PM
These Russian "Oligarchs" need to invest some of that super yacht money into railings and low sodium diets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 14, 2022, 01:49:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 10:39:02 PM

its been extremely difficult to not get into the whole political spectrum of this and get me banned and JH stroking out.

You could start by not randomly bringing Tucker Carlson into this thread
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 14, 2022, 01:54:32 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 14, 2022, 01:49:27 PM
You could start by not randomly bringing Tucker Carlson into this thread

I'd give real money if that guys name would stop coming up.   

Here, I'll try this...

The Russians are doomed!  Look who has joined the fight...

(https://i.ibb.co/1Jfpv88/cats.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 14, 2022, 02:56:26 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 14, 2022, 01:54:32 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 14, 2022, 01:49:27 PM
You could start by not randomly bringing Tucker Carlson into this thread

I'd give real money if that guys name would stop coming up.   

I threw out all my country records of his sister Tanya  ;).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 14, 2022, 02:59:55 PM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/its-now-65-russian-officials-who-are-demanding-vladimir-putins-ouster

Just days after Russian officials in St. Petersburg and Moscow openly called for President Vladimir Putin to give up power, the tally of elected officials demanding the Russian leader's ouster has jumped to 65.
That's according to Kseniya Torstryem, one of the St. Petersburg deputies who is collecting signatures for the initiative. Now, municipal deputies from Samara, Yakutsk, Veliky Novgorod, and Voronezh have also joined the appeal.

The district council in St. Petersburg that first took the initiative and called for Putin to be tried for treason is already set to be dissolved on orders of a city court, and one of its members has been hit with a fine for "discrediting" the powers that be.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 05:51:16 PM
QuoteRussia definitely still has a whole hell of a lot of men -- mobilization hasn't kicked in yet.

ya, so many military able people that wagner is recruiting from prisons.   ::)
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xe6s0v/wagner_recruiting_convicts_inside_russian_prison/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

and not really able to mobilize either.  :DD
https://twitter.com/i/status/1569712907604082688
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 05:52:15 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 14, 2022, 01:49:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2022, 10:39:02 PM

its been extremely difficult to not get into the whole political spectrum of this and get me banned and JH stroking out.

You could start by not randomly bringing Tucker Carlson into this thread

then maybe he shouldnt be paraphrased.   ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 05:57:46 PM
back to whats actually happening.
seems the soviets blew up the dam upstream on the Ingulets river. 
kind of a desperate move as the current is washing away everyone bridging equipment.
two videos and one map.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1570096011967713281
https://twitter.com/i/status/1570115126233268224

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcoYvSiXwAQrvrE?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 14, 2022, 06:36:43 PM
Damn. Russia really needs a serious OSHA Dept. soon. It's only gonna get slipperier in the winter with all the ice.   ^-^
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 06:42:34 PM
they need more copium.
hows this coming out of russian forces around Kherson.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fco7_CuXwAENOJx?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 06:43:20 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 14, 2022, 06:36:43 PM
Damn. Russia really needs a serious OSHA Dept. soon. It's only gonna get slipperier in the winter with all the ice.   ^-^

they seem to need guard rails and window locks more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 06:49:00 PM
how bad is this for barrel wear?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fcowj1iWQAIC7cg?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2022, 08:25:02 AM
Prepare for Russia itself to disintegrate

https://archive.ph/cie8V

maybe
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 15, 2022, 08:59:39 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2022, 08:25:02 AM
Prepare for Russia itself to disintegrate

https://archive.ph/cie8V

maybe

  It's funny that the author of the piece thinks we (the west?  Why not China?  I think China is already happily picking up the pieces of Asia that Russia is dropping) should be ready for the
Russian Federation to collapse.  Think of all those nukes just sitting around somewhere in the collapsing mess, right.

  To give Putin some credit, turning Ukraine into another Belarus was a gamble worth taking and that was probably part of his plan to avoid a collapse.  Ironically -- as often happens -- the measures
to avoid the collapse are probably accellerating it.  But just how far down the road to collapse is the Russian Federation?  It seems like they could still clear out of Ukraine and salvage most of the
situation.  Of course apparently that's not going to happen so...Hello China, good-bye Russian Federation, I guess.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on September 15, 2022, 09:02:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 06:49:00 PM
how bad is this for barrel wear?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fcowj1iWQAIC7cg?format=jpg&name=large)
He'll never get that shell in that magazine!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 15, 2022, 09:17:26 AM
I don't have access to the position paper itself, but I heard a summary with some excerpts read on a podcast yesterday, written by an official in the Chinese government (translated to English), arguing that not only is the Russian government going to collapse, but the result will start an economic chain reaction for China (which is already in the process of happening) that will make it flatly impossible to 'retake' Taiwan by any means including even blockade to force a surrender. Thus the recommendation of this author was that China had better accept reality now, retrench, and fix its internal problems, rather than trying to play tiger games with the West -- but ultimately the author was optimistic that if China did this, they'd come out very much stronger.

The implication, based on other things China is trying to do, is that they'll now get plenty of control-expansion opportunities into mainland Asia.

So ultimately a very bullish 50ish year plan (by implication), at the end of which they'd be able to expand as they wish elsewhere than land-Asia to take over ze wurrrld in a carefully stepped-off way bit by bit (since they're also well on the way to crippling the US by many softer 'war' methods -- China has regarded itself as being at active war with the US and other western nations for something like 20 years now, just not in a direct-action military sense.)

Personally I doubt China can overcome its own crippling economic time bombs, but it was an interesting way for them to try to concede that they need to put off Taiwan again for the foreseeable future and deal with their own crisis-opportunities.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2022, 09:20:22 AM
wow, youre getting succinct in your old age.  ;)
I happen to concur that the chinese are better off picking up the dropped fruit of russian asiatic territories then trying to confront a much more unified Pacific Rim front backed by the US and Japan.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2022, 09:24:27 AM
while Germany has gotten a lot of flak for not seeming to help the Ukraine with more weapons heres a list of whats been donated so far:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-aid-to.html

tasty line item:  100 155mm PzH 2000s (Purchased by Ukraine from Krauss-Maffei Wegmann through the security capacity building fund)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 15, 2022, 09:29:19 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2022, 09:24:27 AM
while Germany has gotten a lot of flak for not seeming to help the Ukraine with more weapons heres a list of whats been donated so far:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-aid-to.html

tasty line item:  100 155mm PzH 2000s (Purchased by Ukraine from Krauss-Maffei Wegmann through the security capacity building fund)

Just in: two more M270 MARS systems and 50 Dingo MRAPs. So those can be removed from the To-be-delivered list. More importantly, seems these are not empty promises, then. Here's hoping for a quick delivery of those 100 PzH 200 SPAs  O0

Edit source for instance https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/verteidigungsministern-lambrecht-deutschland-liefert-raketenwerfer-und-gepanzerte-fahrzeuge-an-ukraine-8647081.html

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2022, 10:05:40 AM
another worthwhile read:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/politics/us-ukraine-aid-weapons/index.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 15, 2022, 10:21:20 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 15, 2022, 09:17:26 AM
I don't have access to the position paper itself, but I heard a summary with some excerpts read on a podcast yesterday, written by an official in the Chinese government (translated to English), arguing that not only is the Russian government going to collapse, but the result will start an economic chain reaction for China (which is already in the process of happening) that will make it flatly impossible to 'retake' Taiwan by any means including even blockade to force a surrender. Thus the recommendation of this author was that China had better accept reality now, retrench, and fix its internal problems, rather than trying to play tiger games with the West -- but ultimately the author was optimistic that if China did this, they'd come out very much stronger.

The implication, based on other things China is trying to do, is that they'll now get plenty of control-expansion opportunities into mainland Asia.

So ultimately a very bullish 50ish year plan (by implication), at the end of which they'd be able to expand as they wish elsewhere than land-Asia to take over ze wurrrld in a carefully stepped-off way bit by bit (since they're also well on the way to crippling the US by many softer 'war' methods -- China has regarded itself as being at active war with the US and other western nations for something like 20 years now, just not in a direct-action military sense.)

Personally I doubt China can overcome its own crippling economic time bombs, but it was an interesting way for them to try to concede that they need to put off Taiwan again for the foreseeable future and deal with their own crisis-opportunities.

One of the "unknown unknowns" in China's strategic path is the influence of ultra-nationalism. Sections of Chinese society including the military are just itching to fix old perceived insults. The US is probably not even at the top of thier target list; that distinction probably goes to Japan.

Some China watchers have maintained that most of the recent saber rattling by Xi's government has been to please these nationalists.

It is possible that in the near future, Xi might take actions that seem illogical or even self-destructive, except when ulta-nationalism is factored into the calculation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 15, 2022, 10:29:50 AM
If Russia does collapse, what are the odds then of a new federation lead by Zelensky and Ukraine? A Russian  collapse would leave him in the driver's seat as the big winner and only alternative in the region. Or would it? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 15, 2022, 10:42:48 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2022, 06:42:34 PM
they need more copium.
hows this coming out of russian forces around Kherson.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fco7_CuXwAENOJx?format=jpg&name=medium)

If the Soviets are aware, then the UAF knows they are aware. Can't wait to see what they have in store for the Orcs. Unlike the Soviets, the UAF has options.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 15, 2022, 10:44:16 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 15, 2022, 10:29:50 AM
If Russia does collapse, what are the odds then of a new federation lead by Zelensky and Ukraine? A Russian  collapse would leave him in the driver's seat as the big winner and only alternative in the region. Or would it?

Very low I would think.  I don't see Ukrainian forces reaching Moscow quicker than internal forces in Russia can sort themselves out and end up with a new leader.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 15, 2022, 10:45:12 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 15, 2022, 10:29:50 AM
If Russia does collapse, what are the odds then of a new federation lead by Zelensky and Ukraine? A Russian  collapse would leave him in the driver's seat as the big winner and only alternative in the region. Or would it?
Don't believe Russia will collapse. Putin however may have to resign
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2022, 10:50:12 AM
resign by open 11th floor window hopefully.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 15, 2022, 11:42:50 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 15, 2022, 10:29:50 AM
If Russia does collapse, what are the odds then of a new federation lead by Zelensky and Ukraine? A Russian  collapse would leave him in the driver's seat as the big winner and only alternative in the region. Or would it?

Zero.  Less than that actually. 

First, the Ukrainians and Russians are NOT one people.  That's being made very clear to the Russians right now.  There are deep, extreme divisions between them that go back centuries.  Russians no more want to listen to a Ukrainian voice of leadership than the Ukrainians want to listen to a Russian. 

Second, Zelensky is going to have his hands beyond full if he wins this war.  The areas near the front lines were devastated by Russian scorched earth tactics, several cities have been reduced to essentially rubble, and now that the Ukrainians have liberated a large swath of territory, we're starting to hear of some really ugly stuff that was going on behind the lines.   Serbian style Ethnic cleansing was at least on the Russian radar if not starting in some places.

Even if some coalition of Russian or ex Russian states looked to Ukraine for leadership, I'd wager they'd give them the middle finger and just get to burying their dead and rebuilding their cities.  They have no interest in looking to the East for brotherhood any longer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 15, 2022, 11:52:11 AM
They (the Russians) have a lot to answer for. War reparations will be steep.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 15, 2022, 12:02:32 PM
I doubt the Uks want leadership per se, but an economic confederation with disaffected Russian satellites might be useful. Kazahk was making some noises earlier, teasing secession. It would be interesting to see Putin's BUMK plan go completely the other way (even if Belo doesn't join in eventually).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 15, 2022, 12:02:50 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2022, 10:50:12 AM
resign by open 11th floor window hopefully.

9mm stroke.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 15, 2022, 12:06:42 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 15, 2022, 12:02:32 PM
I doubt the Uks want leadership per se, but an economic confederation with disaffected Russian satellites might be useful. Kazahk was making some noises earlier, teasing secession. It would be interesting to see Putin's BUMK plan go completely the other way (even if Belo doesn't join in eventually).

Ukraine can achieve that easily by just fully joining the EU and NATO. 

That's going to be the irony here.  Putin wanted to stop the spread of both cold in their tracks with this war.  The result is going to be the opposite.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 15, 2022, 12:34:34 PM
^And the possible breakup of the Russian Federation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 15, 2022, 12:40:39 PM
Slava Ukraini Intensifies....


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2022, 01:33:34 PM
hard to sit through this:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2022, 06:14:52 PM
quiet news day, dont expect much until Sunday.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 15, 2022, 06:23:55 PM
I don't see any way that Zelensky takes over Russia, or even much of Russia.  Only a madman drives 450 miles into a country that's got thousands of nuclear warheads to be used in self-defense.

That said, I do think that Zelensky was pretty well positioned before the war to "court" the Russian people.  He was born in a Russian-speaking household. 

More importantly, he was a Ukrainian movie star.  Which basically means he made shows for Ukraine, and if they were successful there, he then spent most of his career touring Russia, trying to break into the TV market that's four times as large as his homeland!  Realistically, before becoming the President of Ukraine, he'd probably spent much more time on Russian TV shows and promoting his work to Russian audiences than he had to Ukrainian audiences.

How the Russians feel about him after the war ends will depend on how internal Russian politics shakes out.  The hardline Russian nationalists will always hate the guy, but Russian sentiment can be a fickle monster.  It's almost impossible to know who will succeed Putin over the long term, or how they'll behave.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 15, 2022, 10:01:22 PM
The Russians may have to choose between turning to the West or be consumed by the East. Zelensky may look better and better to them the further west Chinese influence spreads. But Sir Andrew makes a good point, how will the Russians ever be considered worthwhile partners after their behavior in Ukraine?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 16, 2022, 03:12:53 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcwxuKVXgAMJOpH?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 16, 2022, 04:56:48 AM
all attacks repulsed.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fctf5elX0AEuv-y?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 16, 2022, 06:32:51 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 15, 2022, 10:01:22 PM
The Russians may have to choose between turning to the West or be consumed by the East. Zelensky may look better and better to them the further west Chinese influence spreads. But Sir Andrew makes a good point, how will the Russians ever be considered worthwhile partners after their behavior in Ukraine?

   Actually, outside of Putin's apocalyptic crew, Russia has plenty of options.  Basically, the country just needs to calm down and cut its losses...they should be fine.  Turkey, Iran, India, and China will all be
happy to help Russia regain its perspectives.  It's true the whole Russia-as-super-power thing will have to be dropped, but in the long run, that's probably going to be a good thing.  The country that is
a wreck is Ukraine and they were not in such a great situation even before the Russians blasted the place, which would be why the Russians thought a king-sized Belarus might be a good thing.  They were clearly wrong, but that opens up the whole can of such things as "Does even Belarus want to be a Belarus?  What about Transnitria?  What about Khazakstan?"  -- none of those places have a stable future in the near future.  And what about all those nukes laying around in Russia or whereever they are?  Clearly these are huge problems and at the moment nobody but maybe China sort of has a handle on them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 16, 2022, 10:17:53 AM
The Russians won't ever give up their nukes (except in one-off, black market transactions).  Especially after what we saw happen to Ukraine, any country that has nukes and gives them up is signing itself up for needless mortal peril.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 16, 2022, 10:31:19 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 16, 2022, 10:17:53 AM
The Russians won't ever give up their nukes (except in one-off, black market transactions).  Especially after what we saw happen to Ukraine, any country that has nukes and gives them up is signing itself up for needless mortal peril.

The go forward lesson for the Ukraine is "get some".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 16, 2022, 10:35:57 AM
^They gave them up...to the Russians!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 16, 2022, 11:17:42 AM
Well, I wish I could say I wasn't expecting stories like this. 

Russians in Izium with parting gifts of last minute reprisal executions of civilians and a mass grave with 400 bodies. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 16, 2022, 11:26:40 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 16, 2022, 10:17:53 AM
The Russians won't ever give up their nukes (except in one-off, black market transactions).  Especially after what we saw happen to Ukraine, any country that has nukes and gives them up is signing itself up for needless mortal peril.

   Looking at Wikipedia, 3 out of 4 countries that gave up control of nukes seem to be okay (South Africa, Belarus, Khazakstan -- okay so far -- Ukraine might have oughta kept theirs -- but in  fact they affirmed their adherence to the NPT after 2014!  ):

Belarus had 81 single warhead missiles stationed on its territory after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. They were all transferred to Russia by 1996. In May 1992, Belarus acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).[117] On 28 February 2022, Belarus held a constitutional referendum, in which it dropped its "Non-nuclear" status, in light of Belarusian involvement in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[118]
Kazakhstan had 1,400 Soviet-era nuclear weapons on its territory and transferred them all to Russia by 1995, after Kazakhstan acceded to the NPT.[119]
Ukraine had "as many as 3,000" nuclear weapons deployed on its territory when it became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991, equivalent to the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world.[120] At the time Ukraine acceded to the NPT in December 1994, Ukraine had agreed to dispose of all nuclear weapons within its territory. The warheads were removed from Ukraine by 1996 and disassembled in Russia.[121] Despite Russia's subsequent and internationally disputed annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine reaffirmed its 1994 decision to accede to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear-weapon state.[122]
In connection with their accession to the NPT, all three countries received assurances that their sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity would be respected, as stated in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. This agreement has been criticized as ineffective since the Russo-Ukrainian War began in 2014, during which Russia annexed Crimea, occupied Eastern Ukraine, and in 2022, invaded the remainder of the country with no direct response.[123][124][12
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 16, 2022, 11:39:11 AM
Quote from: Windigo on September 16, 2022, 10:31:19 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 16, 2022, 10:17:53 AM
The Russians won't ever give up their nukes (except in one-off, black market transactions).  Especially after what we saw happen to Ukraine, any country that has nukes and gives them up is signing itself up for needless mortal peril.

The go forward lesson for the Ukraine is "get some".

Quote from: Gusington on September 16, 2022, 10:35:57 AM
^They gave them up...to the Russians!

"Get some -- more."  >:D

Also the go-forward lesson for Ukraine on general principle.  ^-^

It remains to be seen whether they'll end up more corrupted in government after their epic win here, or not, of course.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 16, 2022, 11:45:02 AM
I'm thinking the former but who knows what Ukraine will look like when the war is over. There is still a chance it will become a charred wasteland.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 16, 2022, 11:52:45 AM
Yeah.  My sense is that the "get some nukes" lesson won't be lost on virtually every country living in the shadow of a more powerful neighbor.

The Western foreign policy towards Russia in the last 10-15 years has been feckless and short-sighted, driven by corporate special interests and bordering on downright incompetent.  That's been true regardless of the country or the political affiliation of various countries' leaders.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 16, 2022, 11:58:03 AM
Another ginger, gone to her reward...  :'(

https://www.newsweek.com/olga-simonova-russian-fight-ukraine-war-killed-died-frontline-1742844


Meanwhile, Chechen leader Kadyrov has convinced some Russian areas to self-mobilize, sort of:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-regions-to-self-mobilize-as-putin-s-war-efforts-stall/ar-AA11TRTw?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=da86451ec9c7465cb818f94c78a19d7e

"Sort of" being the operative description. ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 16, 2022, 12:34:40 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 16, 2022, 11:52:45 AM
Yeah.  My sense is that the "get some nukes" lesson won't be lost on virtually every country living in the shadow of a more powerful neighbor.

The Western foreign policy towards Russia in the last 10-15 years has been feckless and short-sighted, driven by corporate special interests and bordering on downright incompetent.  That's been true regardless of the country or the political affiliation of various countries' leaders.

This is absolutely the case. The EU decision to bind itself to Russia for Natural Gas in retrospect is a very stupid strategic blunder.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 16, 2022, 12:36:30 PM
I think now it is critical for the West to further tangibly support the Ukraine. Run the bastards out of country in a winter campaign.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 16, 2022, 01:09:03 PM
Refusing to take part in the "special military operation" now gets your face posted above a urinal.   O0

https://twitter.com/Haruspexut/status/1570582230241783809
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 16, 2022, 01:14:02 PM
its a good thing they dont have manpower problems....   ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 16, 2022, 01:36:50 PM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/indias-narendra-modi-and-chinas-xi-jinping-criticize-vladimir-putins-war-in-ukraine-right-to-his-face

Putin's Allies Are Now Slamming the War Right to His Face.


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin in no unclear terms that he thinks Putin's decision to wage war in Ukraine is a grave error.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is feeling pressure from all sides to pull back from the war in Ukraine. The public rebuke from Modi comes just a day after Putin held a key face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which Putin acknowledged publicly that Xi has "concerns" about the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 16, 2022, 02:21:37 PM
^Maybe we'll see that new Indian aircraft carrier in action against Russia!

Dare to dream.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 16, 2022, 03:21:50 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 16, 2022, 01:14:02 PM
its a good thing they dont have manpower problems....   ::)

I extensively argued they had manpower problems. You didn't bother quoting those parts in your rebuttal which featured some of the same things I said (especially suicide by mobilization).

There is a big difference between having serious manpower problems and having no manpower. The former could be theoretically fixed. (Though Putin's regime seems to have no idea how to do that.)


Quote from: Gusington on September 16, 2022, 02:21:37 PM
^Maybe we'll see that new Indian aircraft carrier in action against Russia!

Dare to dream.

"President, this is the Admiral of the 1st Indian Carrier Task Force: the Kremlin has been secured!"

"CRIMEA!!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 16, 2022, 03:29:54 PM
QuoteI extensively argued they had manpower problems. You didn't bother quoting those parts in your rebuttal which featured some of the same things I said (especially suicide by mobilization).

that wasnt a response for you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 16, 2022, 04:40:03 PM
Zelensky confirmed that the 440 bodies found in Izium showed signs of torture and most had their hands bound behind their backs.  Many had rope burns on their neck. 

They also found the Russian proxy government HQ in Izium had had rooms converted into makeshift torture chambers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 16, 2022, 05:32:03 PM
The whole kleptocracy needs to go down.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 16, 2022, 05:42:08 PM
Bill Whittle's crew a couple of days ago, commenting on the Uk advances:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 16, 2022, 05:54:30 PM
Some odd news of Putin's car being struck somehow in his convoy a few days ago. Rather tabloidy sources, don't know of any confirmation yet.

Contrast to Zelensky's car also being struck in a convoy a few days ago, which was confirmed by Ukraine and other sources (though it's unclear how intentional the impact was by another vehicle which went on out of control to hit some other things.)

No source indicates serious harm to anyone from these events.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 16, 2022, 05:55:07 PM
^Just saw that Izium special report on NBC. Horrible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 16, 2022, 06:10:34 PM
The Kyiv Independent on Sept 14 released Russviet losses, by Ukrainian estimates (take those for what they are worth) -- a small percentage of some tallies still unconfirmed on that day (e.g. 350 troops):

54K troops
2185 tanks
4668 APC
1301 arty (non-missile, towed and sp)
311 missile
233 cruise missiles
169 AAA
248 wing
218 rotary
15 naval
912 UAV
123 special equipment (e.g. dedicated retrieval, combat eng)
3533 support truck (incl fuel carriers)

Worth noting, Russia started this 'special op' with 4000 official support trucks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 16, 2022, 06:17:49 PM
I stick with oryx on twitter for comparative losses.  its very much on the conservative side.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 16, 2022, 08:40:00 PM
~4700 APCs??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 16, 2022, 09:00:56 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 16, 2022, 06:17:49 PM
I stick with oryx on twitter for comparative losses.  its very much on the conservative side.

Agreed, and reasonable. What are they up to on the tallies right now?


Quote from: Gusington on September 16, 2022, 08:40:00 PM
~4700 APCs??

BTs to burn!  8) (The newspaper called them APV in translation to English letters, but I assume it's equivalent "Vehicle" instead of "Carrier".)

The logistic strike against the dedicated military support trucks/tankers seems kinnnd-of right to me. We've noticed since... gosh, as early as February...? that the Orcs had started using civvy trucks surprisingly much. But of course, I can't tell if the newspaper report includes captured civilian trucks/tankers destroyed while being used by the Russians, which would naturally skew the tallies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 16, 2022, 09:30:46 PM
Video of Russian cruise missiles not-yet-destroyed by Ukraine -- cracking apart one of the dams at Kryvyi Rih. Disastrous levels of flooding. Unsure if there was a supply road over the dam, or if the orcs were just being orcs...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xe9mvv/footage_of_russian_cruise_missiles_demolishing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

(Courtesy of the Enforcer a couple of nights ago.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 16, 2022, 11:43:38 PM
General Petraeus comments on the Uk push and whether the Orcs can even find a safe fallback area (in front of their own borders of course).



He also grants that Russia could mobilize its troops, in theory, although that would in itself take many months; but in practice he doubts they'd have the equipment to work with, much less the logistics which would take a lot longer to prepare for supporting a full mobilization. Whether Russian internal morale/discipline would improve enough to allow mobilization is also up in the air: right now, morale is toast, and it's hard to imagine what could be done to improve it any time soon.

(Though I could imagine Putin nuking one of his own cities and blaming it on the West. It wouldn't hold up to any real scrutiny, but a lot of his people don't have any way to know that.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 17, 2022, 01:41:57 AM
I posted earlier about the Russian "armed forces" in Ukraine not being a cohesive structure. Came upon this excellent post describing this in more detail.

For instance:

QuoteTo begin with, I want to stop calling the Russian army what invaded Ukraine and continues to fight now on the side of Putin. This is not the army of the Russian Federation, this is a kind of military group in which the army does not command everywhere and not always. Let's start with this.

1. The lack of a unified command. During the three summer months, it became completely clear that the Russian group included several military formations. Which not only do not have a single command, but often are at enmity with each other.

Here are these groups:

- Regular army of the Russian Federation
- Militia of the "DPR"
- Militia of the "LPR"
- PMC Wagner
- National Guard + "Kadyrovtsy"

Like the army of Darius III, fighting against Alexander the Great, they speak different languages ​​- they cannot understand and accept the goals and each other's values.

And further on:

QuoteLet's summarize. The Russian army in Ukraine is not a single mechanism, but several groups that have their own commanders, control system and their own structure. Some have heavy weapons. Others don't. The third have only transport, and the fourth are homeless by the fires without socks.

For some, war is work for money and pleasure (PMCs), for others it is forced obligation (LDNR), others do not understand at all what they are doing here (Army), and the National Guard may be well motivated, but in itself not very combat-ready.

Therefore, it is difficult to expect good interaction between these groups. What, Prigozhin will work on the orders of some general there? Yes, he personally answers Putin, who is this general to him? Or OMON, they are responsible to Zolotov, their losses are not even taken into account in the military.

Hence the failures in communication, the slow response (until they reach an agreement at the top) and the lack of universality. How do you throw the Russian Guard at enemy tanks? And will PMC Wagner go to die for the sake of a platoon from the "DPR"? A scattered army is always a big problem.

Hence, with their better regular formations at Kherson, they fight in a cohesive manner. Elsewhere, it is likely one big mess. Potemkin's Army. And they are not addressing this root cause at all. Instead we're seeing teenage lieutenants graduating early from Academy sent to command armed convicted criminals...

Here's the original source: https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1570372266206302208

Threadreader + Translate:

https://threadreaderapp-com.translate.goog/thread/1570372266206302208.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 04:04:27 AM
a fair amount to consider.  good find.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 17, 2022, 07:40:43 AM
Teenaged LTs and convicts...what could go wrong?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 17, 2022, 09:23:10 AM
Russians regrouping? I thought they were all out of soldiers?  :o   ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 17, 2022, 10:16:40 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 17, 2022, 09:23:10 AM
Russians regrouping? I thought they were all out of soldiers?  :o   ::)
Just trained ones.   And equipment that isn't older than the soldiers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 01:11:07 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 17, 2022, 09:23:10 AM
Russians regrouping? I thought they were all out of soldiers?  :o   ::)

well when your regrouping in Belgorod its a sign that things arent going well for the russians at all.
but please, continue being wrong in your thought processes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 01:21:20 PM
and in Izyum.....

(https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/ruPo3iKNZj4bLCACjLvy-akuzjk=/600x0/filters:quality(80):format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tgam/4GALRVMK3FLW5CQR4AXAGT5TZQ.JPG)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 02:13:08 PM
fire fights around a train station in Kherson.  some video but no details.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 17, 2022, 02:22:01 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 01:11:07 PM
well when your regrouping in Belgorod its a sign that things arent going well for the russians at all.
but please, continue being wrong in your thought processes.

WSJ did an article on the Belogrod "regrouping".   It was surreal, lots of Russians wandering about with no equipment, doing interviews and mostly saying they don't even know what happened.  Reminiscent of Berlin in 1918 after the Armistice.   They seem to have a vague notion that they'll be redeployed largely for border security until they can replace their equipment losses, which are substantial.  They're out of action for some months at least. 

The Russians have done better elsewhere though.  They have a good position behind the wide portion of the Oskil that seems to be largely holding.  The Ukrainians in the north had to shift a large portion of their forces to the border to chase out the routed Russians, so they will need time to reorient those forces for further offensives. 

The Russians also wisely bought themselves a lot of time with their tactics after the Izium collapse.  The retreat in the far north was so complete that, as DW reported, the Ukrainians ran into the problem of not being able to advance faster than the Russian retreat.  They then followed with the strikes against Kharkiv's power grid and infrastructure to try to slow redeployment east and south.  That seems to have worked.

It's telling how badly the Russians got pasted though, as that was the prime opportunity for a counterattack at Kupiansk.  They tried to put together an effort there as CNN reported earlier this week, but that not only failed but they lost the rest of the east bank of the city.

The Russians had the most "success" in the south.  They plugged in reinforcements from Donetsk into the Melitopol region, which may have slowed/thwarted a new Ukrainian counterattack that was planned there.  Reports from a few pro-west milbloggers said the Ukes were trying to send troops from the North to the Melitopol axis but that was ground down by the infrastructure strikes. 

The Russians also saved a potential collapse in the south by blowing the Karachunov dam.  It looks like the Ukrainians were close to a breakthrough there that threatened to cut the 48th Army clean in half, but the destruction of the dam flooded the axis of advance and stabilized the situation.  The Ukrainians reported that the damage was minimal but satellite imagery shows otherwise.

So, it's not all great news this week, but not all bad.  It's very telling that the Russians did not try to immediately capitalize on the Ukrainians being disorganized from their victory in the north by launching at least a local counterattack in Kupiansk or the Lyman region to try to stabilize the fronts there.  They formed defensive lines to be sure, but those lines aren't secure as the Ukes have a beachhead across the Oskil in Kupiansk and several beachheads across the Dniper around Lyman.  That threatens both the northern and southern flanks of their new defense line and that can't be a situation the Russians see as favorable prior to a "regrouping".

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 17, 2022, 02:48:38 PM
On the Russian state newsservice roundtable a few days ago, "Professor Alexi Fenenko" (no doubt a professor of psychology and parapsychology ;) ) argued that the United States only respects strength, only backs off when we (the US) see overwhelming strength, and regards less than spine-breaking acts of strength as meaningless. Thus, if Russia had gone in at first whomping civilian populations (!!), like the US did in Mosul (!), the US would have respected the Russian position and would not have opposed it (!!!), therefore the only solution to stop US involvement now is to throw away the white gloves and start seriously wiping out Ukrainian civilians (!!!!) unlike before. Until then the US will not respect and accept Russian claims which are based on Russian strength.

I'm currently reading Shirer's Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, and I've still never seen a crazier justification for intentional mass casualties. Commit warcrimes to prove you have the right to do what you want. But it isn't hard to see where this line of thinking leads to: 'If we give up ever attaining some key cities and just nuke them off the face of the earth, the US will accept that we're strong enough to be right and so will agree we should do what we want.'



Keep an eye out for the guy wearing a hammer & sickle...  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 02:55:57 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fc0bK3DWQAAxr4t?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fc0bK2mXwAIBEOS?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 17, 2022, 03:32:44 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 17, 2022, 02:48:38 PM
I've still never seen a crazier justification for intentional mass casualties. Commit warcrimes to prove you have the right to do what you want. But it isn't hard to see where this line of thinking leads to: 'If we give up ever attaining some key cities and just nuke them off the face of the earth, the US will accept that we're strong enough to be right and so will agree we should do what we want.'

Humorously that was the American mindset for dealing with the Russians since the early 20th Century.  That was essentially the cornerstone of American policy since Kennan's Long telegram and embodied by policymakers like Acheson, Dulles and Kissenger. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 17, 2022, 03:57:17 PM
So we would hit civilian casualties on a regular basis to show the Soviets that we had the right to do what we wanted to the civilians in those areas, expecting the Soviets to agree with us, and if they ever didn't agree that our killing those civilians gave us the right to control them, then our policy was to escalate the mass civilian casualties because that would surely make the Soviets respect our rights to do what we wanted with the civilians in those areas... huh.

I mean, I remember mutually assured destruction policies, which weren't about hitting civilians in contested areas to convince Moscow we had the right to do what we wanted with those civilians; and I remember some blowtorch policies in domino areas where we hit civilians in contested areas to root out Soviet-linked insurgents indistinguishable from the civilians (although I don't recall the justification for that being that now the Marxists would respect that we had the right to do what we wanted with the civilians in that area). But I don't recall policy ops like what I was talking about, and what the Russian mouthpieces were talking about. I mean, granted, I was a teenager or younger at the time but there must be a huge hidden history of such actions by the US that I've never learned about yet, if that was our policy basis for action the whole time.

Flaunting strength to keep enemies from wanting to attack us, or in contested areas, is one thing. Trying to demonstrate to the world our right to control civilians in contested areas by killing them, is a rather more particular thing. Or so I thought. That isn't even the same policy as killing rear area enemy civilians during a developed war to hamper military backfield support, which at least has a direct goal on war prosecution.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 17, 2022, 04:17:41 PM
No, the policy, which isn't really in dispute by anyone, was to make the Russians respect strength with strength, through isolation, and at times direct confrontation. 

Kennan wrote, and many in the west agreed, that the Russian mindset was largely one that only would respond to you if you showed you were their equal or stronger.  If you backed down or did things by halves, the Russians would walk all over you. 

That was echoed word for word in the video you shared. 

I suppose in the Cold War that US policy did include a lot of collateral damage.  Alperovitz argues. with a lot of documentation, that the Atomic Bombs were largely unnecessary to bring about the capitulation of Japan, and were simply an early demonstration of American will to use WMD's on populations that included civilians.

So, the Russians seem to be turning the historical screw there as it were.  That's not a judgement on American policy, as in a lot of ways studying Russians, they had a point. 

These guys have just read a history book or two and are turning a screw.  And no, I don't think they're correct in equivalency.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 17, 2022, 05:21:11 PM
Yeah.  It is worth pointing out that the US had no qualms about inflicting massive intentional damage on German and Japanese civilian populations less than 80 years ago. 

I'm not saying that the US in 1944 and Russia today are equivalent.  I'm just saying, we sure do seem to be getting squeamish now compared to some other times in the last century.  That doesn't make us wrong.  It's just worth remembering.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 17, 2022, 05:47:43 PM
I'm surprised (not sure why) that the press is screaming war crimes for Russia bombing power, water, and transportation centers.  The US/British used these exact methods against Germany in 1944. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 17, 2022, 05:53:54 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 17, 2022, 05:47:43 PM
I'm surprised (not sure why) that the press is screaming war crimes for Russia bombing power, water, and transportation centers.  The US/British used these exact methods against Germany in 1944.

And the US did similar in Vietnam in the invasion of Cambodia and Linebacker I and II.  With the same overall reasoning.  Some of the Russian voices in the video above sound like the Hawks of the 50's and 60's demanding we stop fighting white glove war and start operating like it was WW2. 

Anyway, it's opening up a can of worms for debate that may border at least on the edges of political.  I'm just saying some of this is very much "everything old is new again" to my eyes. 

I think it's just all the more reason for our NATO partners to up their direct material support so the Ukrainians can continue to settle this on the battlefield. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 17, 2022, 06:20:54 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 17, 2022, 05:47:43 PM
I'm surprised (not sure why) that the press is screaming war crimes for Russia bombing power, water, and transportation centers.  The US/British used these exact methods against Germany in 1944.

Yeah. No surprises here. The press is depicting the Russian war effort in this light in an effort to maintain support for shipping arms to Ukraine and to prolong and perhaps even expand hostilities.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 17, 2022, 06:39:31 PM
I guess the primary difference is that the Germans had tried doing those things to the Allies before the Allies tried doing them back to the Germans.  Even if the Germans hadn't done so, I doubt the Allies would have hesitated to do so. 

To me, it's a more damning measure of Russian duplicity to claim that this "special operation" is a humanitarian rescue mission, and then try to prosecute that mission by bombing Ukraine back into the Stone Age.

After this is all said and done, assuming the Ukrainians win their freedom and relief investments come washing in, I wonder how much corruption we'll see in Ukraine.  Compared to what's going on right now, I guess that would be a pleasant problem to have.   :-[
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 06:43:58 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 17, 2022, 06:20:54 PM
Yeah. No surprises here. The press is depicting the Russian war effort in this light in an effort to maintain support for shipping arms to Ukraine and to prolong and perhaps even expand hostilities.

or maybe the western concept of warfare has been to move away from carpet bombing everything which is why we have such a lead in precision munitions. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 17, 2022, 06:46:19 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 06:43:58 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 17, 2022, 06:20:54 PM
Yeah. No surprises here. The press is depicting the Russian war effort in this light in an effort to maintain support for shipping arms to Ukraine and to prolong and perhaps even expand hostilities.

or maybe the western concept of warfare has been to move away from carpet bombing everything which is why we have such a lead in precision munitions.

I agree with your comment, but I don't see what it has to do with mine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 06:48:27 PM
should have had Andrews quote along with it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 17, 2022, 06:51:26 PM
Well, I agree too. 

We should all spoon now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 07:02:25 PM
as long as JH is in the middle.  :bd:  :smitten:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 17, 2022, 07:55:20 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 07:02:25 PM
as long as JH is in the middle.  :bd:  :smitten:

oi givultz.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 07:56:12 PM
like a double stuffed vanilla oreo.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 17, 2022, 08:24:04 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 07:02:25 PM
as long as JH is in the middle.  :bd:  :smitten:

I'm going to have to take 2 shots of cheap whiskey just to begin to get that mental image out of my mind.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2022, 08:57:53 PM
(https://target.scene7.com/is/image/Target/GUEST_19e31856-fd29-403f-aa79-f5b6b60e53f4?wid=488&hei=488&fmt=pjpeg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 17, 2022, 10:19:03 PM
Make it a triple.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 18, 2022, 03:40:25 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 17, 2022, 10:19:03 PM
Make it a triple.

Gus, are you suggesting that they make it a triple-stuffed vanilla Oreo?  Involving somebody else too?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2022, 06:37:26 AM
 <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 18, 2022, 09:15:00 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 17, 2022, 07:40:43 AM
Teenaged LTs and convicts...what could go wrong?
I am quite concerned how this will play out as their morale plummets to another low. Bucha happened just a couple of weeks into campaign, and by regular troops, too. Now that they are perhaps fully realising the folly of their situation, and indeed, with armed criminals and what not running free, well, not a good outlook.

This in an setup where Russia has always demanded to be respected, and for them respect and fear are synonyms. I mean, the unit responsible for Bucha was awarded  :(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 18, 2022, 01:19:42 PM
I needed a triple shot to get the Oreo image out of my brain.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2022, 05:20:16 PM
you my friend, are between me and JH.  :cowboy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 18, 2022, 07:26:29 PM
Another quiet day it seems.

The Russians keep falling back to establish new defensive lines around Lyman.  They surrendered a lot of territory today under, what I saw described as light, attack.  They keep putting Lyman and the southern flank of their line along the Oskil in increasing jeopardy and there are indications that the Ukrainians are shifting more and more forces there for an attack. 

Zelensky said today they aren't done and another big push will be coming soon.  I imagine he'd say that if it was true or not, so now the questions is where it'll come.  With fingers pointing at Lyman I wonder if they're going to try the same trick they did last week and prep for a big obvious push and hit elsewhere. 

Where it seems unlikely for them to attack would be the central portion of the front around Donetsk.  The Russians continue to conduct offensive ops there, reportedly at a lot of cost for small gains. 

I saw a few milblog's questioning the logic of their continued offensive in the face of two Ukrainian counteroffensives on the extreme ends of the front, and the answer as to why was something brought up earlier in the thread.   The Central front is largely occupied by LPR, DPR, Wagner and Chechen troops, and they're insisting on pressing their attacks there regardless of the situation that the Regular Russian army is facing in the north and south.  Again, this shows how disjointed the overall Russian effort likely really is..

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 18, 2022, 07:54:49 PM
Makes me wonder how much of the regular Russian Army is left.  One of the recent posts described how the Russian forces have a lot of different masters.  And what are the Chechens playing for.  Will they just withdraw their troops home and break away again? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 18, 2022, 09:08:17 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 18, 2022, 07:54:49 PM
Makes me wonder how much of the regular Russian Army is left.  One of the recent posts described how the Russian forces have a lot of different masters.  And what are the Chechens playing for.  Will they just withdraw their troops home and break away again?

Quite a lot I imagine in the south, they've just heavily overloaded the southern flank with RF troops.  They now have two Armies in the Kherson region north of the Dniper, the 49th and 5th, and if you look at the units deployed around the front, they're largely high quality formations like Guards units.  They've also deployed a lot of regular RF formations north of Melitopol anchoring the left side of the center. 

In the north, who knows?  A lot of what's defending in Lyman are mixed LPF formations and reserve formations with a few high quality regiments like the Kuban Cossacks.  Who knows what percentage of their troops there are now combat effective.  I'd wager it's not a lot or they'd have taken advantage of the lull to try some counterattacks to stabilize the situation around Kupyansk and Lyman. 

In rumor zone, there were reports the Chechen loyalty was wavering and some formations refused orders unless they were allowed to go on the offensive despite the general desire by Russian High Command to pause along the Donetsk front.  However, outside of "them" talking about it and rumors from a few of my connected buddies I don't know how true that is.   Their skin in the game is largely Kadryov and his individual power.  The men he brought over were his loyalists and they will fight for him pretty fanatically.  If things keep going badly I wouldn't count on their loyalty to the Kremlin to keep them in the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 18, 2022, 11:47:10 PM
I wonder if Kadyrov is worried about pissing away his most loyal (and effective) armed followers fighting in a proxy war for Russia?  If either his men's loyalty--or his own loyalty to Putin--wavers, lots of bets are off.

Of course, having been Putin's handpicked guy, I guess his only other option would be to go to the Chinese.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2022, 12:52:02 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/zelensky-ukraine-victory-winning-russia-war/671464/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2022, 01:05:16 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fc_mcowWYAA14Az?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2022, 01:11:19 AM
now I'm hungry.  >:(

https://twitter.com/i/status/1571639652154589184
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 19, 2022, 01:53:46 AM
A very interesting thread on Russian railway based logistics network towards Ukraine. Now, if only Ukraine could continue their thrust over the Oskil river and cut the railway from Valyuki hub (RU) to Luhans, the Russians would be in deep trouble there. Here's hoping.

https://twitter.com/warnerta/status/1571318703173541889

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fc469KtWAAIs2m_?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2022, 02:19:03 AM
(https://i.redd.it/tsmoculm9co91.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2022, 02:36:38 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fc-KncYXEA4lx1T?format=jpg&name=small)

and mass graves.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 19, 2022, 03:37:56 AM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-volunteer-fighters-abandoned-as-vladimir-putin-approaches-total-failure-in-ukraine

Low morale continues to plague Russia's troops, and Ukraine claims that multiple Russian units have been "trying to negotiate with the Ukrainians on surrender and transfer under the auspices of international law."

Ukrainian intelligence further claimed on Sunday that some Russian military hospitals have refused to treat so-called "volunteers" who have been fighting on Russia's behalf, since they do not have regular armed forces classification. Other volunteer fighters were "left behind... without any support or help," as Russian forces retreated from occupied territories, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 19, 2022, 06:04:08 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 19, 2022, 03:37:56 AM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-volunteer-fighters-abandoned-as-vladimir-putin-approaches-total-failure-in-ukraine

Low morale continues to plague Russia's troops, and Ukraine claims that multiple Russian units have been "trying to negotiate with the Ukrainians on surrender and transfer under the auspices of international law."

Ukrainian intelligence further claimed on Sunday that some Russian military hospitals have refused to treat so-called "volunteers" who have been fighting on Russia's behalf, since they do not have regular armed forces classification. Other volunteer fighters were "left behind... without any support or help," as Russian forces retreated from occupied territories, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

Another recent article on low morale from the pov of grassroot soldiers. 200 days of war, no cycling of troops, day after day...

https://cepa.org/russias-military-losing-the-will-to-fight/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 06:08:54 AM
Re civilian casualties and showing strength to the Russviets: yes, I'm well aware of those prior examples and justifications (as I said in my comments). I understand those -- I don't like them but I understand them. As I said, I even understand what "Blowtorch Komer" was trying to do with his infamous scorched-terror tactics. I also understand going after the power and roadway infrastructure (though it isn't always clear what effect that's having on the Ukrainian military per se. The dam strike I linked to earlier ended up hampering military action in crossing downstream for example, but that wasn't immediately obvious.)

My point, which I was calling out from that video's propaganda, was that they're now trying to publicly justify ramping up the civilian Uk casualties (beyond what they were already pretending they weren't doing), on the theory that the US only respects brutal ruthless strength and so if Russia just kills enough civilians in the contested area (Ukraine) then the US will respect Russian territorial claims in the contested area and thus come to agree that Russia should control the area. (Thus backing off supplying the Uks with systems, material, and intel.)

This would be like saying the Allied rationale for hitting Caen with kilotons of explosive ordnance during the breakout from Normandy, was to impress the Nazis with our ruthless strength in murdering civilians so that they agreed we thereby had a better right than they did to do whatever we wanted with the French population, whereupon the Nazis would honor our strength and withdraw their military from France. Or like saying Komer's rationale was that if we showed we're willing to more brutally murder civilians than the NVA, they would therefore recognize we had a better right to control those civilians and so the NVA would honor our efforts and stop supporting the Viet Cong.

That was the crazy rationale for Russians to hit civilians I was gawking at, in that propaganda piece.


Edited to add: it occurs to me that I'm getting this from the English translation of the video, which might have itself been twisted for its own propaganda against the Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 06:16:37 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 18, 2022, 11:47:10 PM
I wonder if Kadyrov is worried about pissing away his most loyal (and effective) armed followers fighting in a proxy war for Russia?  If either his men's loyalty--or his own loyalty to Putin--wavers, lots of bets are off.

Of course, having been Putin's handpicked guy, I guess his only other option would be to go to the Chinese.

Well, Kadyrov was leading the recent promotional marketing (so to speak) about Russian/satellite regions each anteing up another 1000 troops for the war effort, supposedly kicking in another 1000 himself. I kind of doubt those are his most loyal elite troops, but still, he's at least trying to signal loyalty to the regime. That signal doesn't mean he is loyal, or that he isn't planning to ripcord out asap, but that was (in itself) a substantial signal. (Sometimes it seems like Russia's main claim to being the "Third Rome", is out-Byzantining the Byzantines. ;) )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 19, 2022, 08:01:08 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 19, 2022, 01:53:46 AM
A very interesting thread on Russian railway based logistics network towards Ukraine. Now, if only Ukraine could continue their thrust over the Oskil river and cut the railway from Valyuki hub (RU) to Luhans, the Russians would be in deep trouble there. Here's hoping.


  I'm reading the Washington Post's reconstruction of early events in the war:  Battle for Kyiv: Ukrainian valor, Russian blunders combined to save the capital

  Somewhat paradoxically, one of the things that might have made the successful defense of Kyiv possible was that the Ukrainians were not in any particular defensive positions.  They
really we not expecting the attack and all they had done was to move forces off of their bases where they would be obvious targets.  Kinda weird.  So they weren't at the border or at the
airports and lots of stuff was off in training or even way south.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 19, 2022, 08:56:38 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 19, 2022, 01:53:46 AM
Now, if only Ukraine could continue their thrust over the Oskil river and cut the railway from Valyuki hub (RU) to Luhans, the Russians would be in deep trouble there. Here's hoping.

What I've learned from local news is that these gains weren't really the purpose.  Ukraine wanted a moral booster for the people and for the army by winning some battles and regaining some territory before winter.
Current gains are far larger then they ever could have imagined (because Russian resistance turned out far weaker than expected) and this leaves them with difficult decisions to make : consolidate current results or push for more with an army that wasn't prepared for that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 19, 2022, 08:58:25 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 06:08:54 AM

That was the crazy rationale for Russians to hit civilians I was gawking at, in that propaganda piece.


Edited to add: it occurs to me that I'm getting this from the English translation of the video, which might have itself been twisted for its own propaganda against the Russians.

You're still not invited to the spooning.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 09:14:52 AM
^ Phew!

Quote from: Pete Dero on September 19, 2022, 08:56:38 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 19, 2022, 01:53:46 AM
Now, if only Ukraine could continue their thrust over the Oskil river and cut the railway from Valyuki hub (RU) to Luhans, the Russians would be in deep trouble there. Here's hoping.

What I've learned from local news is that these gains weren't really the purpose.  Ukraine wanted a moral booster for the people and for the army by winning some battles and regaining some territory before winter.
Current gains are far larger then they ever could have imagined (because Russian resistance turned out far weaker than expected) and this leaves them with difficult decisions to make : consolidate current results or push for more with an army that wasn't prepared for that.


Butt-kicking while the butt-kicking is good, until one finds the resistance, is usually a sound tactic; but this gets back to my question earlier chewing over whether the Ukrainians are prepared to hold the recovered ground -- or how much they can be prepared to hold, which would be another limit to the pushing.

Or do they keep pushing beyond their ability to hold ground, in order to reduce enemy forces, and then back off to where they have enough force density to hold the ground? And how far back would that be? And how problematic does that look if/when the Russians re-retake the ceded ground? There's also the political / promotional juggle of how much of the Donbas breakaway regions to retake (if possible, while the retaking is good). Theoretically those regions broke away willingly to join the Russians -- but maybe they've got remorse now they've had a protracted taste of Orc government?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2022, 09:57:31 AM
Quoteconsolidate current results or push for more with an army that wasn't prepared for that.

it would seem theyre doing both and not over committing to a full pursuit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2022, 10:06:34 AM
a fairly good brief:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1571563669783474177.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2022, 11:11:31 AM
todays possibilities:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdBhpKbX0AEfhKH?format=jpg&name=small)

Situation west of Lysychansk:
Ukrainian forces are in full control of Bilohorivka and are attempting advances in three directions.
It is reported Russian forces are attempting counterattacks from Novodruzhesk direction.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on September 19, 2022, 11:49:42 AM
Thanks for posting, made for an interesting read. ;)

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2022, 10:06:34 AM
a fairly good brief:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1571563669783474177.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 19, 2022, 11:55:11 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 19, 2022, 01:53:46 AM
A very interesting thread on Russian railway based logistics network towards Ukraine. Now, if only Ukraine could continue their thrust over the Oskil river and cut the railway from Valyuki hub (RU) to Luhans, the Russians would be in deep trouble there. Here's hoping.

https://twitter.com/warnerta/status/1571318703173541889

That is an interesting read.  Thanks for sharing.  It's grown pretty obvious that making the Russians truck logistics more ton-miles puts a serious strain on their supply chain.  It's unclear whether their rail capacity is anywhere near the same level.  My sense is that the Russians still have capacity (in terms of engines, rolling stock, and rail repair resources) to boot in that regard.

As you suggest, the easiest way to cut a rail line is to physically occupy it.  After that, in the absence of aerial superiority, you have a few other options for disrupting supply lines, in descending order of effectiveness:

1) Blow up rail bridges crossing water (there's a reason nobody uses the phrase "pontoon railroad bridge")
2) Bring rail yards within range of more conventional artillery
3) Bring rail yards within range of long-range artillery (e.g., HIMARs)
4) Bring rail lines within range of #2 or #3 above

As for #4:  Rail lines are hard to hit, very durable, and pretty easy to repair.  #4 can still cause troubles, but without aerial superiority to go after the rolling stock on the move, it's very hard.

Your initial point remains:  Getting across the Oskil is a necessary next step to disrupting the logistical chain at Valukyi.

I don't have any sense for how the Ukrainian logistical chain will shake out after they've had a couple weeks to repair things and move transport forward.  I think a lot of the Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure in the Donbas region haven't been just intended to punish the people, but also to impede the logistical network. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 12:51:15 PM
Breaking news: Russian version of Madonna even more horrifying than US version!

https://fortune.com/2022/09/19/alla-pugacheva-russia-singer-slams-putin-ukraine-war-russia-pariah-maxim-galkin/

But just as outspoken.   ^-^
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 12:53:31 PM
In actual war news, Ukraine now claims to control the eastern bank of the Oskil:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-forces-take-control-of-key-river-bank-extending-advance-in-east/ar-AA11ZHgb?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=5a6b3c0569774dcbb1092c68ee53d514

Somehow this article also features Mrs. Pugacheva...  ??? ??? ???

More importantly: "Early Monday morning, Ukrainian officials said, a Russian airstrike hit the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant in Ukraine's southern Mykolaiv region.

"Energoatom, Ukraine's nuclear energy company, said Russian artillery struck about 300 meters from the power plant just after midnight Monday morning. The reactors remained undamaged but the blast shattered the plant's windows and disconnected three power lines, the company said."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 19, 2022, 01:16:06 PM
^Jesus f*cking Christ, Russia :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 19, 2022, 01:42:17 PM
^ This wasn't Russia.  This was Ukraine trying to make Russia look bad for the 20,450th time. 

According to Russia  :pullhair:.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 19, 2022, 01:59:43 PM
They really are a danger to the whole planet  :timeout:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 19, 2022, 02:04:56 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 19, 2022, 01:16:06 PM
Jesus f*cking Christ, Russia :/

This could easily be the new name of the thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 19, 2022, 02:25:49 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 19, 2022, 01:59:43 PM
They really are a danger to the whole planet  :timeout:

(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/001/209/261/7c8.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 19, 2022, 02:34:00 PM
 :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 19, 2022, 03:11:18 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 19, 2022, 01:16:06 PM
^Jesus f*cking Christ, Russia :/

I share that reaction.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 03:59:32 PM
^ Almost seriously: Russia's strategic slogan.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 04:01:19 PM
Was watching Russian APCs fight partisans in Kherson from a three nights ago -- the best part was Russia declaring that this was only a practice exercise. Which almost-necessarily implies they lost against the partisans.  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 04:19:54 PM
Not that this is any kind of surprise, but: Chinese mortar shells recovered?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xgosdc/60mm_m83_chinesemade_mortar_shells_found_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 19, 2022, 05:05:11 PM
Well, Margarita Simonyan of RT announced that within 24 hours the Russians will annex Donetsk and Luhansk based on a referendum held today (seemingly unannounced). 

From here on, she says that both of those Oblasts will be considered Russian territory, and any attacks on that ground by Ukrainians will be considered a full "Act of war".  Further any NATO supplied weapons fired on that territory would be considered an attack on Russia by NATO. 

Looks like they're building the case for full mobilization since there's already fighting in Luhansk on the northern part of the front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 19, 2022, 05:12:18 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 04:19:54 PM
Not that this is any kind of surprise, but: Chinese mortar shells recovered?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xgosdc/60mm_m83_chinesemade_mortar_shells_found_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
The reddit posts say they were 80's era shells supplied to Albania which Albania gave to Ukraine.  Or they were deliveries from North Korea.  Or maybe space aliens trying to start a global thermonuclear war to terraform the planet for them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 19, 2022, 05:16:48 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 19, 2022, 05:05:11 PM
Well, Margarita Simonyan of RT announced that within 24 hours the Russians will annex Donetsk and Luhansk based on a referendum held today (seemingly unannounced). 

From here on, she says that both of those Oblasts will be considered Russian territory, and any attacks on that ground by Ukrainians will be considered a full "Act of war".  Further any NATO supplied weapons fired on that territory would be considered an attack on Russia by NATO. 

Looks like they're building the case for full mobilization since there's already fighting in Luhansk on the northern part of the front.

This level of delusional grandeur would be hilarious if it wasn't so deadly serious.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 19, 2022, 05:57:07 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 19, 2022, 05:16:48 PM
This level of delusional grandeur would be hilarious if it wasn't so deadly serious.  ::)

It's actually a savvy move.  They can't stop the counterattack in the north by conventional means, and the strikes behind the line by HIMARS and the new German Arty systems are making the central offensive a slog, so they're trying to build a political barrier to hide behind. 

Need the protection of the border?  Move the border.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 07:22:51 PM
Just don't forget to move the T-90s! .....opps.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xhraju/t90m_in_ukraine_captured/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xhlfng/ukrainian_sources_report_that_a_russian_t90m/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Bonus points for towing off the T-90 with another captured Soviet tank. (Alas, not with a farm tractor. I am forced to assume the Uks just couldn't find one nearby, as that would have been a massive visual propaganda.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 07:24:50 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 19, 2022, 05:12:18 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 19, 2022, 04:19:54 PM
Not that this is any kind of surprise, but: Chinese mortar shells recovered?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xgosdc/60mm_m83_chinesemade_mortar_shells_found_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
The reddit posts say they were 80's era shells supplied to Albania which Albania gave to Ukraine.  Or they were deliveries from North Korea.  Or maybe space aliens trying to start a global thermonuclear war to terraform the planet for them.

Option 1: possible.
Option 2: also possible, I recall there being something looking more like Korean on the side of the shell compared to the box they came in.

Option 3: the way the world is nowadays, and the way this war has gone, I'm hesitant to regard this as impossible...!  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on September 20, 2022, 07:06:53 AM
I've added the podcast, Battleground: Ukraine to my listening list. It is hosted by best-selling military historians Patrick Bishop, and Saul David.

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/battleground-ukraine/id1617276298

Latest episode summary:

In the wake of the massive Ukrainian breakthrough in the Kharkiv area, and the recapturing of vast swathes of Ukrainian territory, we hear from the former head of the British Army General Lord Dannatt, who has been closely following events in Ukraine.

Saul and Patrick also discuss what this all means going forward, as well as the alleged attempt on Putin's life.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 20, 2022, 07:59:36 AM
The latest on Annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk, according to Bloomberg. Short version: Playing out as we expected. Annexation is on the fast track. Russians will then use 'defense of sovereign territory' as a reason for all-out war.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-hurries-to-annex-occupied-ukraine-amid-kyiv-s-gains/ar-AA121H6b?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=be09864c570b41e9b706c2a8fd012933 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-hurries-to-annex-occupied-ukraine-amid-kyiv-s-gains/ar-AA121H6b?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=be09864c570b41e9b706c2a8fd012933)

Not clear if Putin himself is pushing this, or if it is just the 'hawks' on his team. Hopefully Putin blinks...or if he doesn't, that this is the straw that finally gives Putin that 'long rest' he has worked so hard to deserve.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 20, 2022, 09:15:32 AM
Be the best you can be, join the army ...


Yevgeny Prigozhin—the head of Vladimir Putin's shadowy private army, Wagner Group—has been taking trips to Russian prison camps in order to enlist convicted criminals to fight in Ukraine, according to accounts from military analysts and videos that have emerged on Telegram from Russian prisons.

Putin's plan is to recruit at least 50,000 convicts and Prigozhin, who is an ex-convict himself, has already sent more than 3,000" inmates to Ukraine, including "serial murderers, robbers and at least one cannibal," Romanova told The Daily Beast.



"Pretty much all murderers we have on our watch have been recruited and they die like flies in Ukraine. Out of the first 42 convicts recruited in the first group, only three survived, out of the second group of 66 convicts, only six returned, including one who had lost his arm," Romanova told The Daily Beast.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-accused-of-sending-serial-killers-and-a-cannibal-to-fight-the-war-in-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 20, 2022, 10:04:38 AM
^Only one cannibal? The Jesus F* king Christ, Russia thread deserves more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 20, 2022, 10:09:08 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 19, 2022, 05:16:48 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 19, 2022, 05:05:11 PM
Well, Margarita Simonyan of RT announced that within 24 hours the Russians will annex Donetsk and Luhansk based on a referendum held today (seemingly unannounced). 

From here on, she says that both of those Oblasts will be considered Russian territory, and any attacks on that ground by Ukrainians will be considered a full "Act of war".  Further any NATO supplied weapons fired on that territory would be considered an attack on Russia by NATO. 

Looks like they're building the case for full mobilization since there's already fighting in Luhansk on the northern part of the front.

This level of delusional grandeur would be hilarious if it wasn't so deadly serious.  ::)

Since there was no referendum actually held... good luck with making it stick. Besides, there is no bullying the Ukraine anymore.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 10:41:32 AM
Quote from: Windigo on September 20, 2022, 10:09:08 AM

Since there was no referendum actually held... good luck with making it stick. Besides, there is no bullying the Ukraine anymore.

The "referendum" will be held Friday. 

Simonyan seems to have made a touch of a blunder yesterday announcing the results before the actual "vote" was held. 

The Kremlin made the official announcement this morning with the regular bluster and threats right on queue, including a few direct statements that with annexation nukes are now fully on the table.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 20, 2022, 11:00:22 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 10:41:32 AM
Quote from: Windigo on September 20, 2022, 10:09:08 AM

Since there was no referendum actually held... good luck with making it stick. Besides, there is no bullying the Ukraine anymore.

The "referendum" will be held Friday. 

Simonyan seems to have made a touch of a blunder yesterday announcing the results before the actual "vote" was held. 

The Kremlin made the official announcement this morning with the regular bluster and threats right on queue, including a few direct statements that with annexation nukes are now fully on the table.

"The March of Folly" : I expect we will see tactical nukes and possibly some chemical strikes from Russia before this is over. Since troop density seems to be pretty spread out, not certain how effective they will be...except it will piss off most of the world. Also bring Austria and Switzerland into Nato...heck maybe even the Vatican.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 20, 2022, 11:08:31 AM
My bet is that the Vatican stays neutral.  They need the tax exemptions.   ;)

I've honestly had very sinister suspicions of the Chinese for a long time now, but I see nothing about their conduct in this conflict that makes me feel anything but wholly confirmed in that opinion.  Their actions express utter indifferent to anything the Russians have done, and I wouldn't expect that to change just because the Russians nuke a few hundred thousand civilians in a war of conquest that they begun.

I'd love to be proven wrong.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 11:10:46 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 20, 2022, 11:00:22 AM
"The March of Folly" : I expect we will see tactical nukes and possibly some chemical strikes from Russia before this is over. Since troop density seems to be pretty spread out, not certain how effective they will be...except it will piss off most of the world. Also bring Austria and Switzerland into Nato...heck maybe even the Vatican.

I fear the same. 

At the very least the Russians will now legally be able to deploy conscripts to the combat zones as it will mean "Russia" is under attack.

Meduza reports that internally the Russian MoD has already begun taking steps for full mobilization. 

Putin's apparently about to come on state run TV and make another long address with announcements in the next few minutes.  This is the first time he's done something like this since he launched the invasion. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 20, 2022, 11:13:40 AM
Shout out to the New York Guard at 27:30.  :crazy2:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 20, 2022, 11:52:54 AM
^Seriously? I'll have to watch for that later.

I pray that you're all wrong on the nuke talk.

What is Maduza?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 20, 2022, 12:09:46 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 20, 2022, 11:52:54 AM
I pray that you're all wrong on the nuke talk.

Every time I'm in danger of feeling better, I come to this thread and the danger is gone  :'(.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 12:09:52 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 20, 2022, 11:52:54 AM
What is Maduza?

Meduza is an Independent Russian News outlet that serves as journalistic opposition to Putin's regime and operates out of Riga.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 20, 2022, 12:18:43 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 20, 2022, 11:52:54 AM
^Seriously? I'll have to watch for that later.


Well, he references the South Carolina State Guard, but those state organizations are pretty much all interchangeable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 20, 2022, 12:21:37 PM
Except TX...TXSG reportedly have armor and Apache attack helicopters.

Thanks D, I learn a lot in this, the most frightening thread in the world...as Pete says above.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 20, 2022, 12:28:27 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 11:10:46 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 20, 2022, 11:00:22 AM
"The March of Folly" : I expect we will see tactical nukes and possibly some chemical strikes from Russia before this is over. Since troop density seems to be pretty spread out, not certain how effective they will be...except it will piss off most of the world. Also bring Austria and Switzerland into Nato...heck maybe even the Vatican.

I fear the same. 

At the very least the Russians will now legally be able to deploy conscripts to the combat zones as it will mean "Russia" is under attack.

Meduza reports that internally the Russian MoD has already begun taking steps for full mobilization. 

Putin's apparently about to come on state run TV and make another long address with announcements in the next few minutes.  This is the first time he's done something like this since he launched the invasion.

There is nothing legal about what they are planning to do. It looks good on paper, but it's a PR exercise... propaganda with an attempt to sway opinion and legitimize their criminal/insane activity. It's as deceptive as Joseph Goebbels decrying the bombing of Dresdan, knowing they were carrying out their final solution crap.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 12:39:16 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 20, 2022, 12:28:27 PM
There is nothing legal about what they are planning to do. It looks good on paper, but it's a PR exercise... propaganda with an attempt to sway opinion and legitimize their criminal/insane activity. It's as deceptive as Joseph Goebbels decrying the bombing of Dresdan, knowing they were carrying out their final solution crap.

The "legal" aspect is purely for Russian internal purposes. 

Russian conscripts are by Russian law, not allowed to be deployed in any operation that is not directly defending Russian territory.   This is why Putin was so mad when it was discovered that a few conscript units were conned into participating in the initial invasion. 

Currently any conscript who refuses to fight in Ukraine can be transferred or dismissed, but not prosecuted for desertion or refusal to obey orders. 

This move will allow Russia to deploy Conscripts under pain of prosecution if they refuse to enter combat since they'll be technically be used for "defense of the motherland".   

So, regardless of how this is recognized in international law, and as much of a sham as this is, Russia will be using this to clear internal hurdles that have been putting a strain on their manpower.

Up to 25% of the Russian army has thus far, but Russian law, been unable to be deployed in any manner except to guard the border. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 20, 2022, 01:14:24 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 12:39:16 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 20, 2022, 12:28:27 PM
There is nothing legal about what they are planning to do. It looks good on paper, but it's a PR exercise... propaganda with an attempt to sway opinion and legitimize their criminal/insane activity. It's as deceptive as Joseph Goebbels decrying the bombing of Dresdan, knowing they were carrying out their final solution crap.

The "legal" aspect is purely for Russian internal purposes. 

Russian conscripts are by Russian law, not allowed to be deployed in any operation that is not directly defending Russian territory.   This is why Putin was so mad when it was discovered that a few conscript units were conned into participating in the initial invasion. 

Currently any conscript who refuses to fight in Ukraine can be transferred or dismissed, but not prosecuted for desertion or refusal to obey orders. 

This move will allow Russia to deploy Conscripts under pain of prosecution if they refuse to enter combat since they'll be technically be used for "defense of the motherland".   

So, regardless of how this is recognized in international law, and as much of a sham as this is, Russia will be using this to clear internal hurdles that have been putting a strain on their manpower.

Up to 25% of the Russian army has thus far, but Russian law, been unable to be deployed in any manner except to guard the border.

It will also make a negotiated settlement more difficult.  As Ukraine and Russia both claim the annexed areas to be national territory, it will be difficult for either to give up their respective claim, making a negotiated solution difficult, if not impossible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 20, 2022, 01:24:47 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 12:39:16 PM
This is why Putin was so mad when it was discovered that a few conscript units were conned into participating in the initial invasion. 

Is this the consensus?  Given that Russian intel pre-invasion seemed to believe there would only be token resistance, I assumed Putin was aware of conscripts participating in the invasion, then tried to save face once it became clear they weren't up to the job.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 01:29:06 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on September 20, 2022, 01:14:24 PM
It will also make a negotiated settlement more difficult.  As Ukraine and Russia both claim the annexed areas to be national territory, it will be difficult for either to give up their respective claim, making a negotiated solution difficult, if not impossible.

Exactly.  It pretty much nullifies any negotiated settlement not based on Ukrainian capitulation to Russian demands.  To make matters worse the "Governor" of Zaporizhzhia says they'll declare independence in anticipation of annexation if these referendums succeed, and we all know they will.   The only question is if the vote is 98.9% pro or 99.9% pro.

It'll also be setting Russia up for a massive, regime threatening embarrassment if they lose significant swaths of the annexed oblasts.  It makes defeat there now so politically devastating that Russia has no choice but to use whatever means necessary to prevent that outcome. 

This is the Russian equivalent of Cortez burning his ships.  The stakes for a Russian defeat are now so dire that any almost any strategy for victory can be justified by the Kremlin.

Quote from: al_infierno on September 20, 2022, 01:24:47 PM
Is this the consensus?  Given that Russian intel pre-invasion seemed to believe there would only be token resistance, I assumed Putin was aware of conscripts participating in the invasion, then tried to save face once it became clear they weren't up to the job.

It was surely a case of anger after the fact.  Had the invasion gone the way they wanted, no one would even know conscripts had been sent in under false pretense contracts.  Still, it seems this was a move by the MoD and not Putin himself.  Putin has been very careful of the public image of the invasion and didn't want conscripts used early on because of the potential PR fallout. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 20, 2022, 01:59:20 PM
I'm seriously surprised Putin hadn't moved to annex those breakaway puppet 'republics' years ago.

I suppose some kind of deal was cut with the puppet governors to wield the power locally as a facade of independence, and now that they're resigning (did that Donetsk guy actually resign? -- never saw confirmation of it) or being otherwise threatened there's no reason to keep them independent-in-appearance anymore.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 20, 2022, 02:02:03 PM
Alexey Navalny on Russia's very own Suicide Squad they are recruiting for Wagner from Russian prisons:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572141900051750915.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 20, 2022, 02:05:22 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 20, 2022, 11:08:31 AM
My bet is that the Vatican stays neutral.  They need the tax exemptions.   ;)

You might be right about that...

I think Nato would reject a Vatican bid anyway. Just on the grounds that yellow, red and blue stripes don't really mesh well with other Nato camouflage schemes.

https://vatican.com/Vatican-City-the-Swiss-Guard/ (https://vatican.com/Vatican-City-the-Swiss-Guard/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 02:23:45 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 20, 2022, 01:59:20 PM
I'm seriously surprised Putin hadn't moved to annex those breakaway puppet 'republics' years ago.

Why?

Prior to the invasion the Russians only occupied less than half of Luhansk and Donetsk in a perimeter that ran barely outside of the borders of those cities.   They were only in control there because of the cease fire and threats of Russian intervention if the Ukrainian military went in to push out the separatist forces.   Had the Russians tried to annex them the Ukrainians would've attacked with full force and likely made short work of the Mercs and separatist militias they had arrayed against them.

Officially there were no Russian troops even on the ground (though most of the separatists were likely Russian contract troops).  This wasn't the same as the annexation of Crimea where there was no organized resistance and it was quickly supported by Russian troops.

Annexation only became feasible once the oblasts were fully occupied and bolstered by Russian regular army support.   It was probably preferred well after some kind of victory had been achieved.   They're only jumping the gun now because their hand is being forced. 

And apparently Putin is putting off his speech until tomorrow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 20, 2022, 03:00:21 PM
Putin to go live this evening on Russian tv to give a speech at the Duma.
If I can find an article* I'll post it.





*Definition of article = a news story from a generally accepted main stream media outlet
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 03:02:21 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on September 20, 2022, 03:00:21 PM
Putin to go live this evening on Russian tv to give a speech at the Duma.
If I can find an article* I'll post it.


It's apparently being delayed until the morning in Russia.  That should be 1am Eastern.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 20, 2022, 03:11:49 PM
^Damn it.  Yeah I just saw that. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 20, 2022, 03:17:41 PM
There was an announcement early Tuesday that Russia's State Duma passed legislation introducing stricter punishments for any troops who "voluntarily" surrender on the front line or refuse to follow orders.
Deserters would get up to 15 years behind bars, while those who surrender face a 10-year sentence. Those who refuse to follow the orders of their commanders face three years.

The legislation, which for the first time also adds the concepts of "mobilization, martial law and wartime" to the Russian Criminal Code, has widely been seen as the first step to launching full-scale mobilization.
While the move is widely seen as a way for the Kremlin to shore up troops, it was almost immediately met with panicked calls for Russian troops to ditch the war now before it's too late.


https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlins-new-hail-mary-shows-putin-is-more-panicked-than-ever
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2022, 03:36:51 PM
why did the russians cross the road?


















they were regrouping.  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2022, 04:22:23 PM
back to the nuclear issue:

https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 20, 2022, 05:08:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2022, 04:22:23 PM
back to the nuclear issue:

https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf
We could leak to Russia through "reliable sources" that we had transferred a few dozen tactical nukes to Ukraine.  Not saying we should actually give them to Ukraine.  Maybe the uncertainty would make russia show some restraint.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2022, 05:43:35 PM
that would be a very very bad idea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 20, 2022, 06:02:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2022, 05:43:35 PM
that would be a very very bad idea.

Very very bad.

A consistent element of Russian nuclear policy in the Cold War was the idea that if they felt there was a credible threat of an attack, that they should launch a preemptive strike with full, overwhelming force. 

That was consistently the danger in the Cold War, the Russians were never to the last minute convinced that NATO would not strike first under the cover of a Reforger exercise.  I mean, it's what the Russians would do!

I doubt that mindset has changed much.  If they think someone is directly threatening to use nukes on them, they'll use them first and in such quantity as to assure the threat is eliminated.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2022, 06:18:35 PM
QuoteI mean, it's what the Russians would do!

its literally what they did.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 20, 2022, 07:19:33 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 20, 2022, 05:08:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2022, 04:22:23 PM
back to the nuclear issue:

https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf
We could leak to Russia through "reliable sources" that we had transferred a few dozen tactical nukes to Ukraine.  Not saying we should actually give them to Ukraine.  Maybe the uncertainty would make russia show some restraint.
Actually a better (less bad?) idea would be to simply state if Russia uses nukes in Ukraine we will give Ukraine some to return the favor.  That way Ukraine can't do anything first. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 20, 2022, 07:54:32 PM
Is there an actual Russian word for 'restraint?'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2022, 08:10:14 PM
it used to be called SAC.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 20, 2022, 09:12:30 PM
I'm starting to think the word "Kremlin" is Russian for "insane asylum".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 21, 2022, 12:42:46 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 20, 2022, 09:12:30 PM
I'm starting to think the word "Kremlin" is Russian for "insane asylum".
Isn't it Duma?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 01:19:56 AM
My ex-wife used to enjoy this with me when I'd wax on to all hours at night about the threat of Russia and she humored me while dreaming of getting tats, dying her hair and sleeping with women.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 21, 2022, 01:43:25 AM
@WhereIsRussia with a current status of Russian occupied Ukrainian territory. It must be very worrying for Putin's regime to not only be able to occupy Donbass in full, but to start to see Ukrainian counterattack to start liberating Luhans oblast in particular where Russia has been succesful so far.

https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1572262387188629504

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdHJUnnWQAAu9Ev?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 03:19:37 AM
From Putin's speech a few hours ago :  (source : BBC)


The Russian president says that it's necessary to take an urgent decision to protect people in the "liberated lands".

"That's why I asked the ministry of defence to agree to partial mobilisation," he says.

He says the decree has already been signed and it starts today.

He says that all citizens who will be mobilised will have full armed forces status.

Putin says that the West has been blackmailing Russia but that Russia has many weapons with which to respond.

"We will use all resources we have to defend our people," he says.

"I trust in your support," he concludes.


The Kremlin leader blamed all Russia's difficulties on the West, which he accused of wishing the "disintegration of Russia."

Russia, he said, "would use all means at its disposal to defend Russia if its territorial integrity was threatened."

With Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine about to hold so-called referendums on joining Russia, that is a clear message to Ukraine and the West: Don't try to take back land we have seized and will claim as our own.

And just to make the point, he dropped in this threat: "Those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the prevailing winds can turn in their direction."




The UK's Foreign Office Minister Gillian Keegan
has described Vladimir Putin's threat to the West that he has lots of weapons as "chilling", adding that the address was "more of Putin's lies"

"It's a serious threat but it's one that's been made before," she tells the BBC.

Earlier, she said his declaration that there will be a partial mobilisation of Russian reserve forces as a "worrying escalation".

She adds that Putin's comments should be taken "seriously" and also urged for calm in the face of his threat in his speech to use nuclear weapons.


The shock news that mobilisation will begin immediately, today, means that many Russians, especially young professionals, will be considering leaving the country as soon as possible.

The Russian stock market took a sharp downturn at the news, and there are reports of increases in sales of plane tickets in order to leave the country.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 21, 2022, 04:53:52 AM
We're really in a mad house now... :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 21, 2022, 05:33:12 AM
Looking at miltwitter it seems this is one of the more important goals of the "partial mobilization":

QuotePotentially the most significant part of Putin's partial mobilisation decree:

All military service contracts (typically 3-6 months) currently in force extended indefinitely.

They were hemorrhaging contracted personnel already with tons of soldiers whose contracts were about to end. I guess they should have read the small print, too.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1572474655872630785

He continues:

QuoteI think Putin was told his entire professional army was going to quit at the end of their contracts rather than face winter huddling in trenches hunted by Ukrainian SOF and torched by HIMARS.


edit typos
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on September 21, 2022, 08:00:46 AM
Quote
All flights from Russia to neighbouring countries sold out on Wednesday as Russians sought to flee a partial mobilisation order drafting 300,000 reservists into the army announced by Vladimir Putin.

Russian news outlet RBC reported that there were no seats available on flights to destinations that do not require a visa until Friday.

Fears that men of fighting age would not be allowed to leave the country began to spread as the Russian president ordered the call-up, which followed the announcement of referendums to pave the way for the formal annexation of swathes of Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-war-latest-men-flee-russia-to-avoid-mobilisation/ar-AA123Bsh

Putin didn't think this would happen?  I guess his goons will be boarding planes, asking to see papers and having military-aged men pulled off flights.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 08:01:32 AM
'Jesus F*cking Christ, Russia'...forever.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 09:24:58 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 08:01:32 AM
'Jesus F*cking Christ, Russia'...forever.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11234233/Screaming-former-Putin-advisor-warns-president-ready-NUKE-Britain-BBC-Today-Programme.html

A former Russian MP and Putin advisor warned that British cities could be targeted by Putin's nukes in a bare-faced tirade this morning on the Today programme.

Sergei Markov had barely exchanged pleasantries with BBC Radio 4 host Justin Webb when he launched into a series of threats about nuclear war.

'It's not a good morning for everybody. In Russia there's partial mobilisation and for your British listeners Vladimir Putin told you that he would be ready to use nuclear weapons against Western countries... including against Great Britain.  Your cities will be targeted.'



Welcome to the madhouse.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 21, 2022, 09:40:29 AM
The irony of all this is that these threats and the announcement of partial mobilization are taking place on the international day of peace.

Supposedly the reason why the bear leader changed the time of his speech was because he had a health event occur last night.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 09:46:12 AM
Health event you say?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 09:47:16 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on September 21, 2022, 09:40:29 AM
Supposedly the reason why the bear leader changed the time of his speech was because he had a health event occur last night.

Well it still is stroke season in Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 21, 2022, 09:49:27 AM
 :o

For many years, Putin was viewed as a cynical, pragmatic chess master.  I think a lot of the complaisance in the West arose from the fact that Putin seemed to be as calculated as he was.  They knew he'd make trouble, but it'd never really threaten us (Americans and Western Europeans), just them (Syrians and Chechens and maybe a few separatist-inclined Ukrainians).

Fast forward to the modern day, where Putin is behaving more like one of the stars of a professional wrestling TV show, and the West is deeply troubled and unsure what to do.  This wasn't certain, but it seemed like one of the probable outcomes.  Lord only knows where this is going to end.

Our handling of China has been equally short-sighted, even if the warning signs from China have not been quite so blatant.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 21, 2022, 09:53:31 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 09:46:12 AM
Health event you say?

Yeah I saw an article on The Sun website saying he had a coughing fit and chest pains last night.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 21, 2022, 09:56:49 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 21, 2022, 09:49:27 AM
:o

....

Our handling of China has been equally short-sighted, even if the warning signs from China have not been quite so blatant.

I would beg to disagree (regarding the warning signs, not the short-sided part..... :)
https://www.china-arms.com/2022/08/china-missiles-fly-over-taiwan/

However, this little diversion into non-Ukraine issues gives me a opportunity to briefly hijack this thread to give an update on the SHIPSTRIKE system.  I think we talked about it last spring.  Basically, it is a way of making a JDAM into a highly potent ship killer.  It would be of use if 1)  Ernst Blofeld had a mind-controlling satellite constellation uplink facility on a converted containership 13 miles off the US coast, or 2) If some hypothetical east Asian country was to mobilize thousands of RO/ROs, ferries and small to mid sized merchant vessels to lift corps-sized amphibious follow on forces to a destination, say, 90 miles off its coast.....

Here's the video.  Wait to the end and see just how fast that ship sinks....  To quote the gCaptain writer who posted this "I don't know about you but seeing how fast that ship went down made the hairs on the back of my neck stand up."

https://twitter.com/i/status/1571897735254798336
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 21, 2022, 10:37:42 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 01:19:56 AM
My ex-wife used to enjoy this with me when I'd wax on to all hours at night about the threat of Russia and she humored me while dreaming of getting tats, dying her hair and sleeping with women.

.... damn
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 10:49:18 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on September 21, 2022, 09:53:31 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 09:46:12 AM
Health event you say?

Yeah I saw an article on The Sun website saying he had a coughing fit and chest pains last night.

Gravity is strong in Russia.  Could cause chest pains or worse.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-aviation-scientist-anatoly-gerashchenko-falls-to-his-death-in-latest-plunge-mystery

Russian news outlet Izvestia, citing an unnamed source, reported that Gerashchenko "fell from a great height" and careened down several flights of stairs. He was reportedly pronounced dead at the scene.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 11:20:45 AM
Quote from: Windigo on September 21, 2022, 10:37:42 AM
.... damn

Well, there's a reason she's "ex".  O0

I upgraded to an older yet much hotter model. 

COUGAR TOWN!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 12:11:19 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 11:20:45 AM
Quote from: Windigo on September 21, 2022, 10:37:42 AM
.... damn

Well, there's a reason she's "ex".  O0

I upgraded to an older yet much hotter model. 

COUGAR TOWN!

Don't tell me you are dating Courtney Cox  >:(.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 12:14:22 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 12:11:19 PM
Don't tell me you are dating Courtney Cox  >:(.

Ok I won't tell you that.  8)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 12:21:24 PM
^You are my Hero of the Day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 12:26:45 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 12:21:24 PM
^You are my Hero of the Day.

I'm not the hero you deserve but I'm the one you need.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 12:48:19 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 12:14:22 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 12:11:19 PM
Don't tell me you are dating Courtney Cox  >:(.

Ok I won't tell you that.  8)

No problem.  I'll ask her myself next weekend  :coolsmiley:.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 21, 2022, 12:57:21 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 21, 2022, 10:37:42 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 01:19:56 AM
My ex-wife used to enjoy this with me when I'd wax on to all hours at night about the threat of Russia and she humored me while dreaming of getting tats, dying her hair and sleeping with women.

.... damn
Apparently I share the same dream
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 12:57:36 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 12:48:19 PM
No problem.  I'll ask her myself next weekend  :coolsmiley:.

I honestly might be a bit biased, but I really honestly think she's hotter than Courtney Cox. 

And she's loaded and on a Military pension.

Not really sure how I landed this one. She's a nerd too and we're watching Andor tonight.

Anyway...enough there, back to the impending destruction of the planet in Nuclear Armageddon.  A veritable War of a Madman's Making!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 21, 2022, 01:03:50 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 12:57:36 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 12:48:19 PM
No problem.  I'll ask her myself next weekend  :coolsmiley:.



Not really sure how I landed this one.

Because she knows you're a Groghead and we get all the ladies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 01:57:52 PM
PIMPIN :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 02:09:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 01:57:52 PM
PIMPIN :crazy2:

It ain't easy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 21, 2022, 02:22:16 PM
Well, while Andrew is partially mobilizing...  ^-^

Oy, Putin's talk of "partially" mobilizing makes me edgy.

On one hand, it depends on what he means by 'partial'. If all he's after is legal cover to mess with the contracts of boots already on the ground, fine.

On the other hand, if he means anything like real mobilization, in Soviet {cough} Russia there is no such thing as "partial" mobilization. It might take two years, but full is on the way.

On yet the OTHER hand: mobilizing without the logistics in place to support mobilization, is basically national suicide. Civil war time?


I think someone upthread already mentioned this, but just in case: "how to leave Russia" has started massively spiking on Google and other engine searches. ;)

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-leave-russia-google-searches-spike-putin-military-mobilization-2022-9

Ukraine's MoD continues winning the meme war along the way, but this is not really news.  >:D

QuoteThe russians were given 12 hours of rest, so Google could answer all the questions, including the question of what is the average life expectancy of a russian soldier in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 03:09:03 PM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-implodes-after-vladimir-putin-announces-mobilization-of-300000-people-to-fight-the-war-in-ukraine

Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" against Ukraine hit a turning point Wednesday—but not the kind the Kremlin wanted.


Instead, the Russian leader may have inadvertently put the final nail in the coffin of his decades-long reign with his bombshell announcement that hundreds of thousands of citizens will be called up to face likely death in the war next door.

Dozens of demonstrators were detained in Moscow as well as cities as far flung as Ulan Ude, Izhevsk, Irkutsk, Chelyabinsk, and Perm, among others, according to the monitoring site OVD.info.
Protests continued to erupt across the country despite prosecutors in the capital warning demonstrators they could face up to 15 years in prison for speaking out against the war.

Outrage only intensified amid reports that some public workers had already begun receiving draft notices en masse. Medical staffers in Moscow have already been called up, according to human rights lawyer Pavel Chikov, who also called BS on the Russian defense ministry's claims the mobilization would only be "partial."

The Insider reported that doctors and nurses at one private clinic in Moscow had also received draft notices.

The backlash was swift: "The crazy old man is going all in, his bets–are our lives. They promised us to take Kyiv in three days. The Ukrainians took in three hours what we took in three months. Now there is a mobilization for 'fresh meat' in order to bomb civilian sites," hackers wrote in a statement posted on the homepage of St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Airport.

"Ukraine already won. The question is how badly we'll lose," the statement read.


Meanwhile, anger seems to be growing over Russian lawmakers who cheer on the war but let ordinary citizens do the dirty work.

Dmitry Vyatkin, a lawmaker in Putin's United Russia party, raised eyebrows with a speech Wednesday claiming it's "easy" to decide to head to the frontline in Ukraine–but arguing that he and other lawmakers can't do it because they're too busy explaining the "importance" of the war to people.



Could this really be the end of Putin ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 03:22:51 PM
^Fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 21, 2022, 03:56:11 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 03:09:03 PM

Dozens of demonstrators were detained in Moscow as well as cities as far flung as Ulan Ude, Izhevsk, Irkutsk, Chelyabinsk, and Perm, among others, according to the monitoring site OVD.info.
Protests continued to erupt across the country despite prosecutors in the capital warning demonstrators they could face up to 15 years in prison for speaking out against the war.

....

The backlash was swift: "The crazy old man is going all in, his bets–are our lives. They promised us to take Kyiv in three days. The Ukrainians took in three hours what we took in three months. Now there is a mobilization for 'fresh meat' in order to bomb civilian sites," hackers wrote in a statement posted on the homepage of St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Airport.

Historically, the czars would call out the Cossacks to sweep the streets of dissenters about now. Poor old Vlad...this time he can't really call in the Cossacks can he.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 03:58:45 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 21, 2022, 03:56:11 PM
Historically, the czars would call out the Cossacks to sweep the streets of dissenters about now. Poor old Vlad...this time he can't really call in the Cossacks can he.

:2funny: :2funny: :2funny: :2funny:

Hey, he's got the Kuban Brigade.

Oh wait, they got their arses kicked in Izium.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on September 21, 2022, 04:14:44 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 03:58:45 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 21, 2022, 03:56:11 PM
Historically, the czars would call out the Cossacks to sweep the streets of dissenters about now. Poor old Vlad...this time he can't really call in the Cossacks can he.

:2funny: :2funny: :2funny: :2funny:

Hey, he's got the Kuban Brigade.

Oh wait, they got their arses kicked in Izium.

Is that offer of 100K troops from the North Korean toad Kim Jong-un (https://nypost.com/2022/08/05/russian-state-tv-north-korea-offers-kremlin-100000-troops/) still on the table??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 21, 2022, 04:32:45 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 12:57:36 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 21, 2022, 12:48:19 PM
No problem.  I'll ask her myself next weekend  :coolsmiley:.

I honestly might be a bit biased, but I really honestly think she's hotter than Courtney Cox. 

And she's loaded and on a Military pension.

Not really sure how I landed this one. She's a nerd too and we're watching Andor tonight.

Anyway...enough there, back to the impending destruction of the planet in Nuclear Armageddon.  A veritable War of a Madman's Making!

I am sorry, but I have a reputation to maintain here along with grog tradition and decorum (pressure from Gus you know?), but if you have a loving partner and can see/touch her boobs once in a while... who cares about impending destruction of the planet in Nuclear Armageddon?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 21, 2022, 04:38:51 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 21, 2022, 03:56:11 PM
Historically, the czars would call out the Cossacks to sweep the streets of dissenters about now. Poor old Vlad...this time he can't really call in the Cossacks can he.

"Mr. President, we have secured the Kremlin!"

Man, that meme will never get old, God willing!

(...unless they really do secure the Kremlin someday. I would sacrifice the meme's validity for that, I think.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 04:42:47 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 21, 2022, 04:32:45 PM
I am sorry, but I have a reputation to maintain here along with grog tradition and decorum (pressure from Gus you know?), but if you have a loving partner and can see/touch her boobs once in a while... who cares about impending destruction of the planet in Nuclear Armageddon?

You have a very, very valid and cogent point.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2022, 04:45:43 PM
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572571676524838915.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 05:07:31 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2022, 04:45:43 PM
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572571676524838915.html

That's something that is being lost on a lot of people.  The Russian Army simply isn't well trained or motivated.

One of its biggest issues that is telling right now is its extreme lack of a strong NCO and Jr. Officer Corps.  They're bottom heavy and at times soldiers who are given NCO positions are not adequately trained, experienced or motivated to do that job.

You basically have an almost 18th Century concept of an army.  Large groups of enlisted troops that are under commanders who are at the company level or above that have no way to give anyone below them independent intitivae.

The top level Guards formations don't have that issue, but they make up a small portion of the Russian Army.

The majority is only a bit of a step above a directed rabble.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 05:36:44 PM
Are the Russians going to move more Guards units into Ukraine?

Oh and lookee...anti war protests in Russia  :bd:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62981293
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 21, 2022, 06:13:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 05:36:44 PM
Are the Russians going to move more Guards units into Ukraine?

No. They're already all there. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2022, 06:20:07 PM
40% of them that are left are.   :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 21, 2022, 07:25:55 PM
Wow.

Good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2022, 10:07:27 PM
this is the world we live in.

(https://parentinfluence.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/17-3.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 21, 2022, 11:42:44 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2022, 10:07:27 PM
this is the world we live in.

(https://parentinfluence.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/17-3.jpg)
Could be worse - could have been an add for viagra
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 22, 2022, 02:41:16 AM
Quote from: Windigo on September 21, 2022, 04:32:45 PM
I am sorry, but I have a reputation to maintain here along with grog tradition and decorum (pressure from Gus you know?), but if you have a loving partner and can see/touch her boobs once in a while... who cares about impending destruction of the planet in Nuclear Armageddon?

They didn't make the song "Dancing with a smile on my face'.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 22, 2022, 03:03:13 AM
Stop....

Were gonna get into a loop of our youth....

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 22, 2022, 05:54:53 AM
This is it boys. This is war.

Brought you by Viagra, Dominos and Putin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 22, 2022, 06:23:47 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 22, 2022, 05:54:53 AM
This is it boys. This is war.

Brought you by Viagra, Dominos and Putin.

Channeling Major Kong.

"Well boys I reckon this is it. Nooclear combat toe to toe with the Rooskies"






Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 22, 2022, 07:41:36 AM
This is the sign of the times, piece of more to come  ::).

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdJbf5cXEAEqFee?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 22, 2022, 07:51:08 AM
Jeff Schogol at Task and Purpose, goes into some detail about why Putin will magnify his disaster if he really mobilizes 300K reservists:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russia-mobilization-reserve-ukraine-war/

This is purely focused on the condition of Russian reservists and their equipment right now (not on other problems like a catastrophic lack of logistics to support them). To say the least, they aren't bringing up guys who have been going through pre-elite paratroop assault training with multiple obstacle course grades and live jumps over the past ten years. ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 22, 2022, 07:54:22 AM
A small poignant and powerful piece on the aftermath at the personal level
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-retaken-battlefields-soldiers-recover-070218952.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 22, 2022, 08:26:09 AM
Makes me think of this:



Sacrifice of the youngs from two countries for nothing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 22, 2022, 09:03:56 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 22, 2022, 07:51:08 AM
This is purely focused on the condition of Russian reservists and their equipment right now

Russian soldiers don't need equipment.  You pick up the weapon from the guy who died in front of you.

I wonder what they have left as tanks.  The first army of 180.000 has had them destroyed or had to leave them behind.  How much can they hand out to the new army of 300.000 ?
If moral is low today wait until those new 'volunteers' show up.
Personally I think non of them will ever reach the front lines.


And as for drafting only those with military backgrounds :  some of those who spoke out in the protest yesterday against Putin's order have been ordered to go and die for his invasion.  Some of the protesters detained in Moscow have subsequently been given draft notices while in lock-up, according to the monitoring group OVD.info and Mediazona. The wife of one jailed protester told MediaZona that authorities filmed as they presented her husband with a draft notice and told him he had to take it "because he is a citizen of the Russian Federation and is obliged to appear tomorrow at the commissariat."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 22, 2022, 09:55:00 AM
So those drafted protestors had no military training background, even the minimal stuff mentioned in the article?

I ask because 'drafting protestors asap, mua ha ha' and 'calling up reservists with problematic levels of military training' are not mutually exclusive categories.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 22, 2022, 10:23:09 AM
This has been a bizarre series of "keep our kleptocrats in power" exercises that keep orbiting further and further away from reality.  At some point, the dissonance will be overwhelming, but at that point, it's unclear what will break.  It's pretty obvious that Putin will let the streets run red with the blood of his people before stepping back from his Imperial Dream.

My sense is that the whole Russian decision making apparatus has broken down in the last six months, and now Putin is just going grasping from straw to bloody straw.  At some point, the roof is going to cave in when he pulls one straw too many, but it's unclear what the human cost of that will be--in Russian, in Ukraine, and globally.

I feel like I'm watching a bizarre IRL sequel to the novelty PC game of a couple years ago, Stalin, Calm Down.

I wonder what Steam is doing with all the Russian development teams on their platform?  Happily collecting payments for their products and passing that problem along to the publishers, I assume...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 22, 2022, 10:34:59 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 22, 2022, 09:03:56 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 22, 2022, 07:51:08 AM
This is purely focused on the condition of Russian reservists and their equipment right now

Russian soldiers don't need equipment.  You pick up the weapon from the guy who died in front of you.

I wonder what they have left as tanks.  The first army of 180.000 has had them destroyed or had to leave them behind.  How much can they hand out to the new army of 300.000 ?
If moral is low today wait until those new 'volunteers' show up.
Personally I think non of them will ever reach the front lines.


And as for drafting only those with military backgrounds :  some of those who spoke out in the protest yesterday against Putin's order have been ordered to go and die for his invasion.  Some of the protesters detained in Moscow have subsequently been given draft notices while in lock-up, according to the monitoring group OVD.info and Mediazona. The wife of one jailed protester told MediaZona that authorities filmed as they presented her husband with a draft notice and told him he had to take it "because he is a citizen of the Russian Federation and is obliged to appear tomorrow at the commissariat."

Aren't they supposed to have some t-90s still kicking around?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 22, 2022, 10:42:19 AM
Quote from: Windigo on September 22, 2022, 10:34:59 AM

Aren't they supposed to have some t-90s still kicking around?
At this rate the first T-55s will hit the frontlines in approximately three month's time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2022, 10:56:42 AM
Ive already seen video evidence of mothballed T-62s being transported to staging areas.  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 22, 2022, 11:02:51 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 22, 2022, 09:55:00 AM
So those drafted protestors had no military training background, even the minimal stuff mentioned in the article?

I ask because 'drafting protestors asap, mua ha ha' and 'calling up reservists with problematic levels of military training' are not mutually exclusive categories.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62992365

A 26-year-old PhD student and lecturer at a prominent Russian university, he was expecting a delivery of groceries the night before the Putin address when the doorbell rang. Instead, he was faced with two men in civilian clothes who handed him military papers and asked him to sign.

The BBC has a copy of these documents, asking him to attend a draft centre on Thursday.

he Kremlin said only people who had done their military service and had special skills and combat experience would be called up. But Sergei has no military experience and his stepfather is worried, as dodging the draft is a criminal offence in Russia.

The stepfather works in a state oil company and hours later he was asked to provide a list of staff who had a legal exemption from military service.


Thousands of Russians attended anti-war protests in cities across Russia on Wednesday night. Many said they were handed call-up papers either in the street or later in police detention.

Human rights organisation OVD-Info listed up to 10 police stations in Moscow alone where protesters were given their papers. At least one man in Moscow's Vernadsky district refused to sign and was threatened with a criminal case.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2022, 11:12:45 AM
its 1917 all over again ladies.  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 22, 2022, 11:43:54 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 22, 2022, 10:42:19 AM
At this rate the first T-55s will hit the frontlines in approximately three month's time.

Way earlier than that.  Ukraine just bought Slovenia's stock of the M-55S.  It'll be in combat pretty quickly I imagine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2022, 12:31:14 PM
theyve already been slated for less demanding sectors of the front from what Ive read.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 22, 2022, 12:57:20 PM
There are rumors that they are recruiting athletes. These can run away even faster  >:D.


Translated from a local newspaper :


In his televised address on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin spoke of "reservists" being called up. It would be about 300,000 Russians who have already served in the army and therefore have the necessary experience.

But Novaya Gazeta, an independent Russian newspaper, quotes an unnamed Putin government official as saying the real plan is to call up 1 million people.

The government source informed the newspaper about a "secret seventh paragraph" of Putin's mobilization decree. "The figure has been adjusted several times," the source says, "and it ended up being one million."

According to The Guardian's Moscow correspondent, Andrew Roth, 20 convocations have already been distributed, including to several in their fifties, in a small Siberian village of 450 inhabitants. If 20 people are mobilized in a village of 450 people, this will result in much more than 300,000 conscriptions across Russia, the British newspaper concludes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2022, 01:00:38 PM
they do like their secret clauses dont they.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 22, 2022, 03:46:19 PM
Some recent news tidbits:

The following countries voted against letting Zelensky address the UN by video.  I guess this is now "Team Russia":
Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, North Korea, Nicaragua, Russia and Syria

North Korea has denied US State Department claims that the country was preparing to sell weapons to Russia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-war-live-volodymyr-zelenskiy-lays-out-peace-formula-as-arrests-at-russia-anti-war-protests-pass-1-000/ar-AA123YJt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=48a621841b1642e8d1ca89b90958b070 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-war-live-volodymyr-zelenskiy-lays-out-peace-formula-as-arrests-at-russia-anti-war-protests-pass-1-000/ar-AA123YJt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=48a621841b1642e8d1ca89b90958b070)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 22, 2022, 03:58:18 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 22, 2022, 11:02:51 AM

Thousands of Russians attended anti-war protests in cities across Russia on Wednesday night. Many said they were handed call-up papers either in the street or later in police detention.

Human rights organisation OVD-Info listed up to 10 police stations in Moscow alone where protesters were given their papers. At least one man in Moscow's Vernadsky district refused to sign and was threatened with a criminal case.[/i]

One "punishment" for protesters is that they will be immediately conscripted into the army.

Thats got to be a "motivated" group to send into combat.

But the Russians aren't probably worried about motivation. Those poor guys would receive minimal training. The Russians would probably just issue them a small stick and then send them off to clear minefields.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-warns-protesters-will-drafted-military-1744983 (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-warns-protesters-will-drafted-military-1744983)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 22, 2022, 04:00:21 PM
I'm not trying to be funny but I thought Eritrea was better than that. Nicaragua too. Guess I better read up.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 22, 2022, 04:14:39 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 22, 2022, 04:00:21 PM
I'm not trying to be funny but I thought Eritrea was better than that. Nicaragua too. Guess I better read up.

You shouldn't think that. 

Nicaragua is under Ortega, the Sandinista dictator from the 80's that was fought against by the US backed Contras.  The people of Nicaragua wanted him despite years of CIA funded wars to depose him.  He's very, very anti-American and pro Russia, the Soviets always supported him.

Eritrea is under Isaias.  Another dictatorship that is highly tied to Moscow.  Isaias has made a habit of eliminating his opposition brutally an and solidifying his regime.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on September 22, 2022, 04:16:22 PM
Maybe Putin's actual plan is overwhelm Ukraine with Russian deserters and surrenderees??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2022, 05:55:33 PM
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/22/ukraine-requests-american-tanks-counteroffensive-00058303
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 22, 2022, 07:30:50 PM
I am learning muchly in this thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 22, 2022, 08:28:58 PM
Hey, speaking of tanks: the first tank-on-tank battle film released in this war? (Not a joke video, btw.)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xjh99a/footage_from_the_ukrainian_unit_terra_documents_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Looks like at least one T-62?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on September 22, 2022, 09:48:41 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 22, 2022, 04:14:39 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 22, 2022, 04:00:21 PM
I'm not trying to be funny but I thought Eritrea was better than that. Nicaragua too. Guess I better read up.

You shouldn't think that. 

Nicaragua is under Ortega, the Sandinista dictator from the 80's that was fought against by the US backed Contras.  The people of Nicaragua wanted him despite years of CIA funded wars to depose him.  He's very, very anti-American and pro Russia, the Soviets always supported him.

Eritrea is under Isaias.  Another dictatorship that is highly tied to Moscow.  Isaias has made a habit of eliminating his opposition brutally an and solidifying his regime.

The Ortega thing really baffles me, because 10 to 15 years ago Nicaragua was on it's way to becoming the next costa rica.  Meaning, beach resort eutopia full of tourist dollars.  Some how it all went south,and they sunk back into oppression like Russia.  Glad I didn't buy a beach house there, it would have been a loss.

Lol, that team russia list is a motley list of nations, not one of them could even make a difference in Ukraine. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 23, 2022, 04:55:14 AM
Russia running out of modern weaponry is fake news shared by the degenerate west with a purpose of deluting the minds of peaceful workers and peasants.

These are not - and I repeat not - Mosin Nagant M91s of the 1891 design.

They are in fact Mosin Nagant M91/30s, indeed modernised in 1930s, and not the old ones. So there.

(What is going on there how come they don't have AK's of older variants if not the latest ones  :o )

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdU695fWIAAFpXv?format=jpg&name=small)

source:

QuoteRuskies with the rifles from 1914

https://twitter.com/golub/status/1573228485543432196


Edit: Winter caps, no leaves on trees, maybe this is an say April drill for the May 5th parade. This does not really make sense otherwise. So this might be fake news, actually.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 23, 2022, 05:12:25 AM
^ More pictures of Mosin Nagants in active use  :o

edit original uncropped photo so at least a few AKs around too:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdUtQyZXoAMI5-q?format=jpg&name=medium)

Quote"When the one with the rifle gets killed, the one who is following picks up the rifle and SHOOTS!"

https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1573136922163421185
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on September 23, 2022, 05:37:16 AM
Those guys have got all the latest gear- gym bags, cheap back packs, and on the right even a department-store shopping bag...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 23, 2022, 06:16:48 AM
Quote from: Staggerwing on September 23, 2022, 05:37:16 AM
Those guys have got all the latest gear- gym bags, cheap back packs, and on the right even a department-store shopping bag...
No leaves on trees on neither photograph, so despite tweeted today, I believe these both are old pictures from say early spring.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on September 23, 2022, 06:28:58 AM
So by now thew new recruits are probably getting paper grocery bags
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 23, 2022, 07:13:10 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 23, 2022, 06:16:48 AM
Quote from: Staggerwing on September 23, 2022, 05:37:16 AM
Those guys have got all the latest gear- gym bags, cheap back packs, and on the right even a department-store shopping bag...
No leaves on trees on neither photograph, so despite tweeted today, I believe these both are old pictures from say early spring.

Original source : https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1248637500588949505 : Cadets at a Military Medical Academy in St. Petersburg have continued to rehearse for the Victory Day Parade (2020).

So : fake indeed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 23, 2022, 08:22:10 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 23, 2022, 07:13:10 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 23, 2022, 06:16:48 AM
Quote from: Staggerwing on September 23, 2022, 05:37:16 AM
Those guys have got all the latest gear- gym bags, cheap back packs, and on the right even a department-store shopping bag...
No leaves on trees on neither photograph, so despite tweeted today, I believe these both are old pictures from say early spring.

Original source : https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1248637500588949505 : Cadets at a Military Medical Academy in St. Petersburg have continued to rehearse for the Victory Day Parade (2020).

So : fake indeed.

Yeah...I wonder about these types of pictures as well, and I don't really put much consideration into them.

When I was in ROTC in the 80s, we occasionally trained with inert Springfields...and we probably toted around some strange looking luggage as well. If the Soviets ever got a picture of us, I'm sure they had a good laugh at the 'American cadets training for WWI.' 

I think the pictures that count are the ones taken from the front lines. If you see a unit of guys on the front line with Mosins...that would be something to really consider.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 23, 2022, 09:01:26 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 23, 2022, 08:22:10 AM
I think the pictures that count are the ones taken from the front lines. If you see a unit of guys on the front line with Mosins...that would be something to really consider.

You shouldn't laugh at Russians for fake images. There are plenty of real images to laugh at  ;).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 23, 2022, 09:06:10 AM
Russia: Of course we don't use weapons from long ago, that would be silly.

Also Russia: UNLEASH THE T-60s!  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on September 23, 2022, 10:08:22 AM
That second picture they look like they were scoped so maybe they were the detachment snipers?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 23, 2022, 10:27:45 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 23, 2022, 09:06:10 AM
Russia: Of course we don't use weapons from long ago, that would be silly.

Also Russia: UNLEASH THE T-60s!  :bd:

Don't know about T-60s. I think those go back a little too far...even for Putin.

But the T-62s do seem to be on the move.

As in this very recent video:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/video-shows-old-russian-tanks-taken-out-of-storage-to-be-used-in-ukraine/ar-AA12al7f (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/video-shows-old-russian-tanks-taken-out-of-storage-to-be-used-in-ukraine/ar-AA12al7f)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 23, 2022, 10:38:37 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 22, 2022, 04:14:39 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 22, 2022, 04:00:21 PM
I'm not trying to be funny but I thought Eritrea was better than that. Nicaragua too. Guess I better read up.

You shouldn't think that. 

Nicaragua is under Ortega, the Sandinista dictator from the 80's that was fought against by the US backed Contras.  The people of Nicaragua wanted him despite years of CIA funded wars to depose him.  He's very, very anti-American and pro Russia, the Soviets always supported him.

Eritrea is under Isaias.  Another dictatorship that is highly tied to Moscow.  Isaias has made a habit of eliminating his opposition brutally an and solidifying his regime.

Off topic, but if you look at Nicaraguan history, there are reasons for the anti-american sentiment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 23, 2022, 10:45:24 AM
History-Smistory. Ortega needs no history to enslave his own people. He was a stooge of the Soviets, now he's a stooge of Putin and the PRC. If there were no history, he'd invent it to hate America. I remember the T-62's as being fairly good tanks for their day. Or was that the T-64?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2022, 11:25:26 AM
the T-64 is the good one.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 23, 2022, 11:53:58 AM
And now for today's entry in the JfingCRussia news:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nuclear-war-already-a-given-says-russian-tv-everyone-will-be-destroyed/ar-AA129Wfo?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=108973e08e274630ad85a3ae3502f02e

The key point of propaganda here, is that Putin is trying to position things (for his population) that the United States and the West generally, plus Ukraine, want to see Russia destroyed; and the only way to destroy Russia is with nuclear weapons (probably not true at this point!); thus Putin is declaring that he will use nukes, too (or maybe first) so that everyone will be destroyed if Russia will be destroyed.

Of course, this translates over to Putin using nukes if he thinks (or even feels) like his regime will be destroyed, since that would be the equivalent of the West using nukes on Russia in its functional consequences. (Even though he insists the only way to take out his regime, thus 'destroying' Russia, would be to use nukes on him.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 23, 2022, 11:59:28 AM
Meanwhile, the White Russian President says, "Mobilization, Schmobilization, or Words to That Effect."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/lukashenko-rules-out-mobilization-of-the-population-due-to-the-war-in-ukraine/ar-AA129yr0?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=108973e08e274630ad85a3ae3502f02e
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 23, 2022, 02:45:04 PM
He better stay away from windows or yachts for a while.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 23, 2022, 02:58:29 PM
"He tripped and fell out the window of his yacht, five times!"  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 23, 2022, 02:58:42 PM
And tea. Or anything not in a enclosed, tamper-proof container. Hell, I wouldn't even trust Mother's Milk straight from the source if I were him.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2022, 03:11:45 PM
the Poles really really hate him.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdXUC79XgAoDgbf?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 23, 2022, 03:20:13 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 23, 2022, 02:58:29 PM
"He tripped and fell out the window of his yacht, five times!"  >:D

If he did it wouldn't happen to a more deserving scumbag. 

Lukashenko has overseen his fair share of assassinations, false imprisonments, sham votes and has supported and directly implemented the murder rape and torture of dissidents, including children. 

He almost makes Putin look like a warm and fuzzy softie by comparison.   This war is seeming a bit too much for him though.  He usually tries not to make his masters in Moscow too angry, but the alternative here is Belarus getting dragged into a conflict that it really doesn't have the military or economic power to prosecute. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 23, 2022, 03:34:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2022, 03:11:45 PM
the Poles really really hate him.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdXUC79XgAoDgbf?format=jpg&name=medium)

Christ! -- they made him look like Captain Picard! Considering the current state of Kurtzman-Trek, that's a damnable insult...  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 23, 2022, 05:34:31 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 23, 2022, 03:20:13 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 23, 2022, 02:58:29 PM
"He tripped and fell out the window of his yacht, five times!"  >:D

He almost makes Putin look like a warm and fuzzy softie by comparison.   This war is seeming a bit too much for him though.  He usually tries not to make his masters in Moscow too angry, but the alternative here is Belarus getting dragged into a conflict that it really doesn't have the military or economic power to prosecute.

He doesn't want to lose his yacht
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on September 23, 2022, 08:17:44 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 23, 2022, 03:20:13 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 23, 2022, 02:58:29 PM
"He tripped and fell out the window of his yacht, five times!"  >:D

If he did it wouldn't happen to a more deserving scumbag. 

Lukashenko has overseen his fair share of assassinations, false imprisonments, sham votes and has supported and directly implemented the murder rape and torture of dissidents, including children. 

He almost makes Putin look like a warm and fuzzy softie by comparison.   This war is seeming a bit too much for him though.  He usually tries not to make his masters in Moscow too angry, but the alternative here is Belarus getting dragged into a conflict that it really doesn't have the military or economic power to prosecute.

Lukashenko is the scumbag who had his Migs force down an Irish (RyanAir) airliner traveling between NATO countries last year so his secret police could drag a dissident off the plane and into jail.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 23, 2022, 09:37:59 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on September 23, 2022, 08:17:44 PM
Lukashenko is the scumbag who had his Migs force down an Irish (RyanAir) airliner traveling between NATO countries last year so his secret police could drag a dissident off the plane and into jail.

Yep.

And he authorizes and endorses the Belorussian KGB to use sexual assault, including against the young children of dissidents as an intimidation tactic. 

The KGB HQ in Minsk mirrors some of the deep, dank horrors of of the Gulag Archipelago.  They proudly brandish the KGB name in an effort to horrify his enemies. 

He's one of Europe's most vicious monsters.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2022, 10:16:49 PM
so this is a thing in russia...   :hide:

QuoteMobilisation is worrying many Russians. But not Vera: "I'd be much happier if my son got wounded fighting in Ukraine than die of alcoholism here," she tells me. Our latest report from Moscow as the draft continues.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 23, 2022, 10:31:01 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2022, 10:16:49 PM
so this is a thing in russia...   :hide:

QuoteMobilisation is worrying many Russians. But not Vera: "I'd be much happier if my son got wounded fighting in Ukraine than die of alcoholism here," she tells me. Our latest report from Moscow as the draft continues.

That's always been a thing in Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2022, 10:32:46 PM
true that.  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 24, 2022, 05:36:53 AM
Who does this remind me of ?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdZFoqfXEAIpLEY?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Source : New York Times
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 24, 2022, 10:50:28 AM
^The resemblance is striking.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2022, 12:05:49 PM
can we all skip to the bunker part at the end.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 24, 2022, 12:11:46 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 24, 2022, 10:50:28 AM
^The resemblance is striking.

Volkssturm is being recruited as we speak.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 24, 2022, 12:13:59 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 24, 2022, 12:11:46 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 24, 2022, 10:50:28 AM
^The resemblance is striking.

Volkssturm is being recruited as we speak.

No.  The Volkssturm was well motivated in comparison.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 24, 2022, 12:42:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2022, 12:05:49 PM
can we all skip to the bunker part at the end.  :bd:

Soon in a theater near you : Downfall 2
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 24, 2022, 12:46:00 PM
^A reality-based series, in a different language. Same themes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2022, 01:03:17 PM
there are tons of downfalls memes already, like a new one every week.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on September 24, 2022, 01:03:57 PM
The line from Killing Joke's song "Eighties," "Let's kamikaze 'till we get there," seems painfully at play with the Russians now.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2022, 01:14:20 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fdb8aVkXoAERJlf?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 24, 2022, 02:21:49 PM
Any reference to Killing Joke is a good and welcome one.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 24, 2022, 03:40:37 PM
ISW reports leaked Russian documents that discuss the true scale of the mobilization.

They call for an eventual goal of 1.2 Million men mobilized, with a two week training regimen to get them ready to be deployed to combat.

This is partly confirmed by the reports coming out of Russia of young men and students being called up despite not having completed their military service, and by public statements being "exempt" because of their student status. 

Gen. Mark Hertling's analysis is that it'd be virtually impossible for Russia to mobilize even the 300,000 that they're officially asking for due to the huge institutional problems with Russia's training programs. 

His analysis connected to something mentioned earlier in this thread, Russia simply has no true institutional NCO corps. 

The NCO's that are tasked with training recruits are notorious for being bully's who have hazed recruits, sometimes fatally as institutional rules.   Most of them are lifers that enlisted for long service in the Russian army because they were recruited from the lowest strata of Russian society, many choosing service over prison.  They are given enormous power over the recruits, and lord it over them like abusive prison guards more than actual teachers and trainers. 

Hertling spent a lot of time studying the Russian training institutions, bringing up that even Elite units weren't exempt from this treatment as a right of passage in the VDV was to have their jump wings pounded directly into the chests of trainees by their NCO's. 

You can only imagine what kind of army will result from these methods, with no experienced Jr. Officers or NCO's to command them once they're sent to combat.

I think Ukrainian tactics to use PR to coerce surrender and then to send POW's to neutral countries will be even more effective if ISW and Hertling's analysis is correct.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 24, 2022, 04:05:45 PM
Two weeks of training to get sent to combat??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 24, 2022, 04:19:47 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 24, 2022, 04:05:45 PM
Two weeks of training to get sent to combat??

Two weeks. 

The Russian MoD even confirmed that in an announcement. 

That's not really enough even if they were doing what they claimed and activating reservists. 

It's comically bad if they're sending in the untrained or men so old they did their service decades ago. 

Even worse, there are reports of people with health exemptions being called up, like diabetics and the chronically ill.  People that need specialized care and won't be able to get it being trained and sent into battle. 

Russia seems to be going with the old adage, bury the enemy in bodies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2022, 04:23:20 PM
Hertling has become one of the standout analysists of this war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2022, 04:32:41 PM
bad day for soviet aviation.
1 Su-25
2 Su-30
1 Su-34
all happily shot down today with visual confirmation on a 30 and 34 so far.

heres the su-30 https://twitter.com/i/status/1573787617765752833

heres the su-34 https://twitter.com/i/status/1573682176037724164
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 24, 2022, 06:21:39 PM
Dang, even Hitler got three months' training!  >:D

I've been a little surprised that memes featuring Russia as WH40K's Imperial Guards (the most obvious geek comparison imaginable) haven't started showing up yet. If this doesn't do it, nothing will?

(Maybe the problem is that fans like the Guards, who are portrayed as overachieving underdogs in a nightmare universe.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 24, 2022, 06:47:24 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 24, 2022, 06:21:39 PM
Dang, even Hitler got three months' training!  >:D

I've been a little surprised that memes featuring Russia as WH40K's Imperial Guards (the most obvious geek comparison imaginable) haven't started showing up yet. If this doesn't do it, nothing will?

(Maybe the problem is that fans like the Guards, who are portrayed as overachieving underdogs in a nightmare universe.)

IG?  Bleh.  No, don't compare the Russians to my beloved Guard. 

Compare the Russians to what they are, the Orks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 24, 2022, 09:34:26 PM
Note to self: remember to post some videos tomorrow, of Russians being in satirical awe about how badly rusted the AK-74s are...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 24, 2022, 09:56:52 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 24, 2022, 09:34:26 PM
Note to self: remember to post some videos tomorrow, of Russians being in satirical awe about how badly rusted the AK-74s are...

Yeah, I saw that.  Badly stored AK's that they're expected to fight with.  Cute, but lets be real, the gear is not where the problem with the Russians lies.

I find this more telling.  This is the army they expect to defeat Ukraine...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 24, 2022, 10:04:21 PM
When the guy said they would take part in the special military operation and then arrive home, I was hoping someone would ask "in a wood box or a body bag?"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 24, 2022, 10:09:53 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 24, 2022, 10:04:21 PM
When the guy said they would take part in the special military operation and then arrive home, I was hoping someone would ask "in a wood box or a body bag?"

I imagine a fair share of them will take Zelensky's offer to surrender and get fair treatment and expatriation to a neutral. 

Tens of thousands of Russians are clogging the roads to Georgia right now, looking to flee over the border to escape service.  Pathetically I saw a video where some of them were doing thigs like scrub the "Z" off their cars that they had to show support for the war.  A bitter irony seeking refuge in a former victim of Russian aggression.

Things are bad enough since the mobilization announcement that I saw more than a few milbloggers saying they expect Martial Law in Russia very soon. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 24, 2022, 10:17:58 PM
This is super worth a watch and goes directly into what Hertling was saying in the TV interview I saw today. 

Very informative about the massive structural problems the Russians have in being an effective fighting force for a real war. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 25, 2022, 02:18:55 AM
I really feel sorry for these russian men right now...it's completely getting out of hand. :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 25, 2022, 10:10:55 AM
Quote from: Anguille on September 25, 2022, 02:18:55 AM
I really feel sorry for these russian men right now...it's completely getting out of hand. :idiot2:

The rumor is that Putin put in a place a secret law making the actual limit of conscription one million men, not just the 300,000 reservists.

That might explain why guys with no military experience are apparently being swept off the street.

I would like to say I am sorry for the Russian men. But Putin is going to send them down to kill Ukrainians; soldiers and a bunch of innocent civilians, including children. When I think of that, I am not sorry about what will happen to those Russian men.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on September 25, 2022, 10:18:58 AM
Can someone who knows more about Russian than I tell me why this douche bag hasn't been eliminated internally?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 10:37:10 AM
its a shell game of favors and power.  I think hes arriving at the limits of what his people are willing to put up with.
for example, the wagner chief is throwing out lots of pr material of him being the responsible commander.
various mayors are calling for his resignation and he got snubbed by both china and north korea.
even Modi kept him waiting during last weeks summit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 25, 2022, 11:11:18 AM
Quote from: acctingman on September 25, 2022, 10:18:58 AM
Can someone who knows more about Russian than I tell me why this douche bag hasn't been eliminated internally?

People around him were also members of the Douchebag family (or as they call them in Russian мафия/mafiya.)

You know those families where affection is bought with money and physical gifts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 25, 2022, 11:35:28 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 24, 2022, 06:21:39 PM
Dang, even Hitler got three months' training!  >:D

I've been a little surprised that memes featuring Russia as WH40K's Imperial Guards (the most obvious geek comparison imaginable) haven't started showing up yet. If this doesn't do it, nothing will?

(Maybe the problem is that fans like the Guards, who are portrayed as overachieving underdogs in a nightmare universe.)

I'm going off of memory here, but I believe the National Guard round out brigades required at least 90 days training to get ready for Desert Storm.  Given that these brigades were manned largely by Guardsmen who had 1)  already completed their basic training, 2) in almost all cases had completed their advanced training; 3) Frequently had prior active duty service; 4) were already part of organized combat units that had approximately 60 days of training/year and still required 90 additional days to prepare for combat operations shows that the 2 weeks of training is woefully inadequate.  It practical effect, it is little better than murder of the conscripts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 25, 2022, 11:40:02 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin escaped to his secret palatial complex near Lake Valdai, halfway between Moscow and St Petersburg, amid anti-draft protests in Russia, MailOnline was first to report.

https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-putin-escapes-secret-palace-amid-anti-draft-protests-report-2022-9?utm_source=reddit.com

Hmm... Why am I reminded of a certain moustached Soviet dictator?  I'm sure the month of October doesn't concern him in any way :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 25, 2022, 12:10:38 PM
It's pretty obvious that Putin is a sociopath surrounded by other sociopaths who are willing to do anything it takes to hang onto their privilege and their egos.  This won't end well for anybody that I can see.  But such is why the entire Western world needs to stand strong in support of Ukraine, and start putting more pressure on Russia's enbablers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 25, 2022, 12:16:16 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on September 25, 2022, 11:35:28 AM
It practical effect, it is little better than murder of the conscripts.

So what !?

Patriarch Kirill, the spiritual leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, has urged his compatriots not to fear death after the (partial) mobilization by President Vladimir Putin.
"Go bravely on your military duty. And remember that if you give your life for your country, you will be with God in his kingdom and glory and eternal life awaits you," he told in his homily at the Zachatyevsky Monastery in Moscow.
In support of the men sent to the front, he added that "the true believer is not subject to fear of death."

source : Newsweek
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 25, 2022, 03:10:35 PM
Quote from: acctingman on September 25, 2022, 10:18:58 AM
Can someone who knows more about Russian than I tell me why this douche bag hasn't been eliminated internally?

He's ex-KGB, he knows how to eliminate his threats before they're a real problem. 

Putin spent years building a kleptocracy and rewarding loyalty with incredible wealth while punishing internal dissent with loss of assets, loss of position, loss of freedom and sometimes loss of life.

Despite the liberal use of the word, there is no Oligarchy in Russia.  There are kleptocrats who owe their money to Putin.  What he giveth he can taketh away.  Most of these people value their yachts wealth over what's good for Russia.  Pure greed and self interest.

He's also a lot more popular among the Russian people than you'd expect.  He's done a very good job creating a cult of personality and controlling his media image by controlling the media.

This draft will be one of the first nails in his coffin hopefully.  However, I've seen a few Russian dissenters caution that the people may be angry about the conscription, but a lot of them still like Putin regardless.  May of the ones fleeing over the border to Georgia were vocal supporters of the war a few days ago.

And with him instantly conscripting anyone that is arrested in a protest, he has a convient way to dispose of dissenters by using them as barely trained canon fodder.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 25, 2022, 03:51:35 PM
'I love this war as long as I don't have to go to the front.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 25, 2022, 04:35:36 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 25, 2022, 03:51:35 PM
'I love this war as long as I don't have to go to the front.'
Probably was an "It's not my problem" and now it is!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 25, 2022, 05:03:44 PM
Jordan Peterson on Putin.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 05:58:22 PM
hmmmmm 
some points ok, most of them not so much.
I shall now commence with libtard propaganda.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on September 25, 2022, 06:08:39 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 25, 2022, 03:51:35 PM
'I love this war as long as I don't have to go to the front.'

Lol. Got my yellow ribbon magnet, so doing my part!

(Jeez, does anyone remember those?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 06:11:33 PM
so my take from the last 3 weeks is that the AFUK, Im just using that from now on, initially took a bunch more territory in the north but then pulled most of their forces back and consolidated their line while focusing on Lyman.  the south seems to be mostly a stalemate due to terrain and ability for each side to supply.  four fighter losses yesterday implies that things are happening in the north with such severity that russia was willing to commit that many front line sorties if the face of a modern, dense SAM belt.
hoping to see lines move further east this week.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 25, 2022, 06:30:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 05:58:22 PM
hmmmmm 
some points ok, most of them not so much.
I shall now commence with libtard propaganda.  :bd:

What can you add other than childish glee-filled warmongering? I mean, from a strategic perspective, what exactly is he wrong about?

Can you deny that Europe is reliant on Russian oil? No.
Can you deny that the absence of Russian fuel is going to devastate Western economies? No.
Can you deny that the risk/benefit analysis for the West weighs against starting a nuclear war? No.
Can you deny that the near total destruction of Ukraine could be one possible angle in which the Russians could claim victory? No.

What exactly do you take issue with and why does everything have to be left vs. right with you? Jordan Peterson's mind works on a much higher plane than yours (or mine), so I wouldn't cavalierly cast his thoughts aside as "propaganda". He is not a conservative, but has been compelled to align himself with them since the left has done everything to cancel him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 07:23:08 PM
you've repeatedly ask me specifically to not dive into politics.
so.

I think that this whole conflict has driven Europe into finally going all in on renewable energy and that they have a much better cushion to deal with the coming winter then you think they do.
I dont think the lack of russian oil is going to devastate western economies.  I think that, it its entirety, western financial institutions have been riding a gross overly large wave of leveraged profit margins and a market correction has been long overdue.
the Fed should have been feathering in these increases over the last year and not slamming on the brakes as they are now.
the risk of nuclear war isnt a factor.  if it gets close to that someones putting a bullet in tuckers boy real fast.  I kind of expect thats how its going to end anyway.
as to your last point, there is no total destruction of the Ukraine.  theres no way the russians can win as it is.  the conflict zones will be a shitshow for years post war.  however, I can point to Germany and Japan as pretty damn good example of western backed reconstruction.  how many jobs in every industry will that create?

as for my glee filled warmongering...  this is the war our generation was supposed to fight.  this is the culture that has been responsible for some of the most gross examples of genocide and ethnic cleansing.  they are a country and a people to be beaten and defeated the same way Germany and Japan were.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 07:25:31 PM
any parts you want me to back fill please let me know.  it was an off the cuff response.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 07:31:21 PM
who do you hope wins this thing?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 25, 2022, 07:49:48 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 07:31:21 PM
who do you hope wins this thing?

That's a stupid question. Just because I don't orgasm over Russian casualty reports and drool over images of destroyed or abandoned Russian hardware doesn't mean I don't support Ukraine in the conflict and pray for the end of blatant Russian aggression. However, my interests are first with the United States and secondarily with NATO. I want the outcome that has the least negative impact on my country and the men and women in its armed service, as is possible. That means there are instances of a Ukrainian "victory" that could result in a net "loss" to the US and and if that is what a "victory" for Ukraine takes then I can't blindly state I want Russia to lose at all costs, as you are so quick to do.

That is one of the biggest problems with our society today. Simply using your brain and questioning ideas or outcomes results in someone pointing the finger and making accusations. So yeah, I don't support Ukrainian victory at all costs. Does that now make me a communist? A fascist? A Racist? What?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 25, 2022, 10:10:57 PM
It characterizes you as the MOST dangerous person alive to many today, a Free-Thinker, who doesn't simply get in line and follow instructions. There are many very good reasons to question what is being claimed by all sides in this conflict including it's necessity. And it's on-going effects worldwide. No one should be afraid to question authority in a Free Society nor should it be afraid of being questioned. Unless there's something we're not being told.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 10:25:54 PM
GDS_Starfury.... the most dangerous man alive!   \m/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 10:35:11 PM
QuoteI want the outcome that has the least negative impact on my country and the men and women in its armed service, as is possible. That means there are instances of a Ukrainian "victory" that could result in a net "loss" to the US and and if that is what a "victory" for Ukraine takes then I can't blindly state I want Russia to lose at all costs, as you are so quick to do.

so what net losses are you seeing for the US so far?  what does it take for you to be all in on this era's defining geopolitical conflict?  why shouldn't russia be pushed to the wall and kneecapped?  it astounds me that you think theres some abiguity with
this at all. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 25, 2022, 10:41:53 PM
Ladies, come one. Let's take a breather and relax.

We all agree that Putin sucks and Ukraine should win.  Why bicker about it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on September 25, 2022, 10:58:13 PM
Jordan Peterson is completely misinformed in this video and listening to him spout his absurd nonsense about Russia being able to brush off its catastrophic economic battlefield losses as a pyrrhic victory against the Ukraine and then instantly switching topic to climate change was embarrassing to watch. For starters, Russia has already turned off most of the gas supply to EU and EU has been diversifying their energy supplies in response. However his take goes beyond being simply misinformed boilerplate to idiotic by suggesting that Russia can claim victory by destroying its infrastructure, given that Russia entered the war with the goal of consolidating its economic leverage over the EU. The current outcome of the war is that Russia's economic leverage over the EU is completely gone, multiple border states have aligned themselves with NATO and Russia's ability to defend its borders is now critically compromised. When the Ukraine defeats this new recruitment surge in a tidal wave of dead Russian recruits, the west will help them rebuild their energy and agricultural infrastructure in short order. Russia cannot win and already lost months ago. Peterson needs to stick to swindling self-help stuff and leave the geopolitical commentary to people who know something about geopolitics.


Groggy
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 25, 2022, 11:57:13 PM
^Interesting optimistic conclusions, but not based in reality.

https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451 (https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/europe-s-challenge-to-survive-without-russian-gas-in-five-charts (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/europe-s-challenge-to-survive-without-russian-gas-in-five-charts)

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-edge-nord-stream-russian-gas-link-set-planned-shut-down-2022-07-10/ (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-edge-nord-stream-russian-gas-link-set-planned-shut-down-2022-07-10/)

The question isn't weather the EU can "survive" without Russian gas. The question is at what cost? The only possible way Russia has no economic leverage is if the EU is prepared to savage their economies and force their citizens to live without power.





Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 26, 2022, 01:21:56 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 25, 2022, 06:30:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 05:58:22 PM
hmmmmm 
some points ok, most of them not so much.
I shall now commence with libtard propaganda.  :bd:

What can you add other than childish glee-filled warmongering? I mean, from a strategic perspective, what exactly is he wrong about?

Can you deny that Europe is reliant on Russian oil? No.
Can you deny that the absence of Russian fuel is going to devastate Western economies? No.
Can you deny that the risk/benefit analysis for the West weighs against starting a nuclear war? No.
Can you deny that the near total destruction of Ukraine could be one possible angle in which the Russians could claim victory? No.

What exactly do you take issue with and why does everything have to be left vs. right with you? Jordan Peterson's mind works on a much higher plane than yours (or mine), so I wouldn't cavalierly cast his thoughts aside as "propaganda". He is not a conservative, but has been compelled to align himself with them since the left has done everything to cancel him.

Some general comments. 

First he talks about totaliarism in general. On Solzhenitsyn I'd add his famous quote about Soviet Union: "We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying." Again, such a short comment by him, I'd add the fact there's a category of truths and a category of lies in Soviet Union that still are valid today. For truth, there's the Official Truth and Kitchen Truth. You don't deny the Official Truth in public, while everyone realises of course what goes, and the actual truth is spoken within your trusted ones, or within family. At your kitchen, so Kitchen Truth. For lies there are several lies as well where Tactical Lies are one of them. You don't expect anyone to really believe them, or if they do, more fool to them.

But I digress, Russian culture of power is such an interesting topic.

As for cutting the tap for the winter, Putin's already used this weapon, and while some landlocked countries such as Hungary, Slovakia etc are more dependent on Russian oil pipelines, Europe as general is not. UK and Norway are big producers, Norway in particular also producing a lot of gas. Gas dependence is much more difficult to replace, as it is part of the infrastructure, as for instance Germany is finding out. Everyone and their dog kept telling Germany it is not a good idea to build such dependency on Russian oil, but they did not believe that in their arrogance and find themselves where they are. So not Russian oil as such would be a problem for Europe, but price of oil and fossil energy in general. Oil has gone down as recession looms so we'll see what goes.

Then, use of nukes. I don't think anyone but Putin has a say on this. In addition to energy nukes has always been his other threat. It was so when Russian military was weak after Cold War and fall of Soviet Union, and they always practice them in their large exercises. So would he use them? We don't know. Should we succumb to his black mail? If we do he's certain to use it again. Here's a thread by our leading "alt-right" politician on this:

QuoteThus, there is not much else we can do but prepare for the worst, hope for the best and keep doing what is right. Being afraid and being paralyzed by fear are two different things.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1574064510842728448.html

Finally, as for winners and losers, he's somewhat too cynical here for my taste. Liberated Ukraine although in ruins is a victory against a dictator in my books. Russias capability to wage war and threaten its self acclaimed sphere of interest is gone war a decade at least. Ruined land can be rebuilt. I do agree that Putin could withdraw and still claim victory, but he's not doing this unless a last resort. His strategy has always been to double down and to escalate, and we're on this path again. Energy weapon used, mobilisation next. For Ukraine, and for West trying to prevent an example for future, for China vs Taiwan as well, there's really no choice but to fight or cave in.

Peace will come when Ukraine and Russia are ready for it, I'd like to believe in happy endings but likely not the case here, so some sort of compromise is likely. But who knows. Until that, stiff upper lip and all that.



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 26, 2022, 02:59:09 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 25, 2022, 11:57:13 PM
^Interesting optimistic conclusions, but not based in reality.

https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451 (https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/europe-s-challenge-to-survive-without-russian-gas-in-five-charts (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/europe-s-challenge-to-survive-without-russian-gas-in-five-charts)

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-edge-nord-stream-russian-gas-link-set-planned-shut-down-2022-07-10/ (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-edge-nord-stream-russian-gas-link-set-planned-shut-down-2022-07-10/)

The question isn't weather the EU can "survive" without Russian gas. The question is at what cost? The only possible way Russia has no economic leverage is if the EU is prepared to savage their economies and force their citizens to live without power.

It is surprisingly difficult to gain an understanding as how Europe, and each country in particular is affected by cut-off of Russian fossils.

For gas it is an easier estimate as most of it is delivered via pipelines which are difficult to replace with LNG as extensive infrastructure would be requited that for most part for e.g. Germany does not exist.

Oil, on country per country basis varies a lot. Landlocked countries are dependent on pipelines, while those with ports rely on tankers. Case in point would be Finland, where the BBC article correctly points out last year over 80% of the oil was of the cheap Russian variant. Yet, to date, all that has been replaced already.

A lot depends on how harsh the weather will be, among other things. As a conclusion, on a country per country basis, I'd say YMMV. Here's hoping for a warm and windy winter...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2022, 06:18:12 AM
I shall now continue the childish glee-filled warmongering with a happy thought for russia:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fdj-EHZWYAANyEX?format=jpg&name=small)

<:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2022, 06:36:45 AM
the childish glee-filled warmongering continues.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574128605826646016

<:-)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fdh_wUqWIAAYcuG?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2022, 07:03:19 AM
I deeply hope this man finds the right muse to transcribe his account of this war.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdlDPZpWYAE_l1d?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2022, 07:09:54 AM
best Nike add ever!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdlHm2MWYAAE9eA?format=jpg&name=large)

<:-)

the giddy warmongering continues.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 26, 2022, 07:42:23 AM
Stop spamming the thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 26, 2022, 08:00:47 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 25, 2022, 10:41:53 PM
Ladies, come one. Let's take a breather and relax.

We all agree that Putin sucks and Ukraine should win.  Why bicker about it?

  Well, I'd rather not bicker BUT the situation is so twisted that I have a hard time coming up with any constructive descriptions of the events surrounding Putin's wars...especially this last one with
Ukraine.  For example -- what exactly is Western Europe supposed to do?  While the Russian regime will negotiate about some things (grain shipments, prisoner exchange), it is impossible to
see what Western Europe can do that makes any sense other than defeating the Russian Regime as quickly and as completely as possible.  Has Putin put forward any serious points for negotiation?
No.  Would anyone be better off surrendering unconditionally? No.
  Putin has to offer something to Ukraine other than destruction.  Putin has to offer Western Europe something other than threats.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2022, 08:07:27 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 26, 2022, 07:42:23 AM
Stop spamming the thread.

Da! Comrade.
I shall go back to data mining confirmed news and maps for the betterment of the collective.
Long live the Rodina!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 26, 2022, 08:27:51 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 26, 2022, 08:00:47 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 25, 2022, 10:41:53 PM
Ladies, come one. Let's take a breather and relax.

We all agree that Putin sucks and Ukraine should win.  Why bicker about it?

  Well, I'd rather not bicker BUT the situation is so twisted that I have a hard time coming up with any constructive descriptions of the events surrounding Putin's wars...especially this last one with
Ukraine.  For example -- what exactly is Western Europe supposed to do?  While the Russian regime will negotiate about some things (grain shipments, prisoner exchange), it is impossible to
see what Western Europe can do that makes any sense other than defeating the Russian Regime as quickly and as completely as possible.  Has Putin put forward any serious points for negotiation?
No.  Would anyone be better off surrendering unconditionally? No.
  Putin has to offer something to Ukraine other than destruction.  Putin has to offer Western Europe something other than threats.

Nobody is suggesting Europe or Ukraine should capitulate. Nobody is suggesting that Russia shouldn't be opposed and thwarted.  The point is simply two-fold: one, a prolonged war is going to have severe consequences far beyond the borders of Ukraine and, two, Russia still possesses the ability to inflict significant economic harm on Europe at large, primarily as a result of Europe's own policies and over-reliance on Russian energy.  This is a major strategic weakness and it is foolish to think that the loss of 40% of the total energy supply is not going to have a devastating impact. Yes, there are many variables (ie. alternative sources of energy, severity of the winter, etc.), but it is not foolish to consider all possible outcomes and utilize the analysis in formulating future policy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 26, 2022, 08:40:43 AM
I wonder what the result of the referendum will be ...

(https://i.insider.com/632e0c1b329bac00182f0ace?width=700)   (https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/stands-near-armed-servicemen-speaks-763597770.jpg)

You fill in Yes for annexation at gunpoint or you vote for voluntary recruitment in the mobilization.

The transparent boxes help to assure only the 'correct' votes are counted.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 26, 2022, 08:52:19 AM
How awesome would it be if the vote went the other way despite all the flagrant cheating?  :dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 26, 2022, 08:59:52 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 26, 2022, 08:52:19 AM
How awesome would it be if the vote went the other way despite all the flagrant cheating?  :dreamer:
Stalin: "Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
(most experts believe he didn't actually say that but it's still true)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 26, 2022, 09:22:56 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 26, 2022, 08:52:19 AM
How awesome would it be if the vote went the other way despite all the flagrant cheating?  :dreamer:

The vote is a huge success : of the 500,000 forms distributed 1,000,000 voted in favor of annexation in one region.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 26, 2022, 09:26:36 AM
^  Glory to the vote counters for their most triumphant success!


On a more serious note, at this point (considering the riots and conscripts trying to flee Russia), I'd say the odds of Putin nuking one of his own cities and trying to blame it on the West, have increased.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 26, 2022, 10:51:26 AM
I think one can be nuanced and critical in one's assessment of the situation, without being a Russian sympathizer.  I wasn't as impressed by the YouTube clip upthread as some, but I think it sets a really dangerous precedent when we stop listening to people who offer different nuances than we're used to. 

Like most smart guys used to speaking in public, he certainly gets most of his individual trees right.  I think he just misses the forest, at least based on what I could glean from that interview.  Obviously, that's just my opinion.

Europe does have an energy problem.  Germany in particular has an LNG problem.  The Western Europeans in general, and the Germans in particular, have done a better job than the US of embracing renewables.  However, much of that (and particularly in Germany) was directed towards shutting down nuclear power following the Fukushima disaster.

Short-term, the energy disruption in the European economies will be dramatic.  It's already been going on for a while.  Long-term, economic disruptions due to one-dimensional energy embargoes don't work that well.  There are too many alternatives, in terms of substitute energy sources (e.g., Germany has adamantly refused to fire back up a couple nuclear reactors that have been mothballed in the last 12 months), in terms of demand destruction (Europe can't buy 20,000,000 heat pumps, but you can bet that they are buying every single one that they can get their hands on, and even if that number is only 3,000,000, that'll whittle down demand), and in terms of just opening up heated public spaces to folks in need.

Will it hurt, especially this winter?  Yes.  Will it cause the Western Europeans to bow out and go home, saying, "OK, Russia, take Ukraine, just give us our heat back, please"?  No.

The world went through much harder oil shocks during the OPEC embargo back in the late 70s.  The timing on this one sucks, but the long-term response will be worse for Russia than for Europe.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 26, 2022, 11:01:56 AM
Just curious, what WOULD be a too-high a price to pay to support Ukraine in this war in the minds of the enlightened thinkers here? Bankruptcy for the West and the U.S.? Collapse of the world economy? Global nuclear war? Another 20-year long commitment to a war the U.S. doesn't intend to win? How about if Zelensky turns-out to be as bad, or worse, than Putin? Is there anything that is too great a price to pay to buy Ukrainian victory?

And if the answer is, 'no', what about Taiwan, or fill-in the blank of the next war in line?   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 26, 2022, 11:22:37 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 26, 2022, 11:01:56 AM
Just curious, what WOULD be a too-high a price to pay to support Ukraine in this war in the minds of the enlightened thinkers here? Bankruptcy for the West and the U.S.? Collapse of the world economy? Global nuclear war? Another 20-year long commitment to a war the U.S. doesn't intend to win? How about if Zelensky turns-out to be as bad, or worse, than Putin? Is there anything that is too great a price to pay to buy Ukrainian victory?

And if the answer is, 'no', what about Taiwan, or fill-in the blank of the next war in line?

  I can't speak for the enlightened, but one should consider a range of scenarios.  After all, what does a bought Ukrainian victory look like?  That's kind of the question, really, isn't it?

  1) scenario 1 and really pretty likely -- Russia decides to negotiate with the West: ceasefire, and a neutral zone.  UN or some other group, runs the disputed provinces for a long time.  Sanctions and whatnot
are slowly lifted and things slide back to normal sort of.  Result -- end of war, lots of talk, economies are bumpy, nobody goes bankrupt
  2) Scenario 2 -- Russia doesn't negotiate with the West, Ukraine takes it all, Russian stuff goes via China, India and Turkey and the UN (a round-about version of 2 except Russia suffers more -- sort of happening with the grain deal already)
  3) scenario 3 -- Russia completely falls apart -- this is sort of the most disturbing scenario -- what fills that huge vacuum full of oil and nukes?  China?  Khazakstan?  Iran?  India?

Hopefully we get something like scenario 1, but Russia hasn't been too rationally lately.
 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 26, 2022, 01:13:01 PM
Meanwhile, in happier news, I just saw where Russia 'donated' another couple of functional T-90s to the Uks!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xnkuiw/two_abandoned_russian_t90as_after_failed/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

They're gonna need some bigger tractors... ;)

The short version is that the two tanks got mis-driven off-road and stuck, whereupon the crews abandoned them -- one with its tracks still rolling in gear!

It's one thing to have so many tanks on hand, and so many more constantly rolling out of the factory, that you don't think you have to bother much with recovery-and-repair forces (and their own kit and vehicles and supporting/protective troops), but that sure ain't Putin's situation nowadays!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 26, 2022, 01:36:52 PM
 :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 26, 2022, 02:13:47 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 26, 2022, 01:13:01 PM
Meanwhile, in happier news, I just saw where Russia 'donated' another couple of functional T-90s to the Uks!

Apparently there is a joke going around in Ukraine : we thank the US for their support but our biggest donor of weapons is Russia for which we are enormously grateful.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2022, 02:20:25 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 26, 2022, 11:01:56 AM
Just curious, what WOULD be a too-high a price to pay to support Ukraine in this war in the minds of the enlightened thinkers here? Bankruptcy for the West and the U.S.? Collapse of the world economy? Global nuclear war? Another 20-year long commitment to a war the U.S. doesn't intend to win? How about if Zelensky turns-out to be as bad, or worse, than Putin? Is there anything that is too great a price to pay to buy Ukrainian victory?

And if the answer is, 'no', what about Taiwan, or fill-in the blank of the next war in line?

how is this conflict going to bankrupt the US?
how is it going to collapse the world economy?
its not the US war to win but it seems the Ukraine is doing ok so far.
LOL @ Zelensky being a worse putin, like really.... where do you come up with this stuff.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on September 26, 2022, 03:01:22 PM
Edward Snowden Granted Russian Citizenship (http://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-u-s-expat-edward-snowden-granted-russian-citizenship)

I think if I were Snowden, I might be more than a little concerned due to the timing.  More cannon fodder for Ukraine, maybe?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2022, 04:22:39 PM
the mobilization has been a huge success!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574483334679478284

putin remains a master strategist.

the giddy warmongering continues.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 26, 2022, 05:10:17 PM
^It's fucking tragic. You can feel how serious it got in the room when she started talking about gun shots.

...and only an imbecile who has never seen the true face of war would be giddy about any of this.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 26, 2022, 05:21:40 PM
Looks like the UAF has punched  two pretty good holes in the Soviet lines north of Lyman and have crossed the Oskil River.

That absolutely puts Svatove and other critical supply routes up for grabs. Not a good situation for any Soviet forces south of that.

Soviets 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division down to near combat ineffective....

After a pause, the north seemingly continues to be rolled up by the UAF.

Yes I want Ukraine to be victorious - kick Orc ass; but it still sucks that this means mangled flesh, spilled blood, the death of hopes and dreams of young men ... fuck war and fuck those who start them and profit from them.

I am grateful I am far, far away from it all.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 26, 2022, 06:35:29 PM
War is always terrible. 

I feel horribly for the Russian men on the front lines that don't want to be there and are being put in harms way without adequate support and training. 

I hope they lose, but the tragedy of it is never lost on me.  It's not just my love of Russian history and respect for Russians, it's just general humanity.

But yes, I'm happy to see the breakthrough north of Lyman.  However, the worst of it is for the Russian fighting men, Putin has ordered a no steps back order, 15 years prison for anyone that retreats, is captured or surrenders and is repatriated.  So they're holding Lyman even though the situation is deteriorating around them.

I had said earlier that the wise choice was to fight a holding action at the Oskil and fall back to prepared positions at Svatove.  It seems some Russian commanders agreed and were replaced.

That's putting the entire north side of the line in danger.  Svatove is the new nexus for supplies for Lyman, and behind that is the real prize, Starbolisk. 

If the UAF takes Svatove they have a straight shot to Starbolisk, and they can cut all rail supply to Luhansk and put the oblast (which is about to be annexed) in danger.

This is where Putin could be said to consider tactical nukes...but consider this..

If he uses nukes now, on the offensive, the prevailing winds will take fallout over Kursk.  Thousands of Russians dying of radiation poisoning on top of an unpopular draft. 

Also, some experts have questioned the accuracy of tactical rockets being used against an enemy offensive.  They'll need to hit along the most ideal parts of the axis of advance, right between the phase lines, and to do that they may be forced to deploy via jet and not rocket.  That's a much more dangerous proposition and could lead to the horrific (for Russia) consequence of having a jet armed with nukes downed over enemy lines.

Weigh that with how Modi and Xi will respond to the use of nukes when considering if he's about to pull the trigger.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 26, 2022, 07:41:39 PM
QuoteAlso, some experts have questioned the accuracy of tactical rockets being used against an enemy offensive.  They'll need to hit along the most ideal parts of the axis of advance, right between the phase lines, and to do that they may be forced to deploy via jet and not rocket.  That's a much more dangerous proposition and could lead to the horrific (for Russia) consequence of having a jet armed with nukes downed over enemy lines.

Weigh that with how Modi and Xi will respond to the use of nukes when considering if he's about to pull the trigger.

If I thought that Putin or his commanders were still making decisions rationally, I'd be a lot more confident in your assessment (qualified as it is, even).  War sucks, and just because I want one side to lose doesn't mean that I celebrate all the men and women who will have to die on both sides to make that happen.

Reading this news stories creates all sorts of confusing responses in me.  On the one hand, I know whom I want to win.  On the other hand, I get way too excited when I see them making progress.  Sometimes it feels to me more like I'm cheering for a sports team than I am watching soldiers bleed and die.

A lot of what I see these days feels like a really messed up version of wargamer's porn.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 26, 2022, 08:57:02 PM
Right there with you Sooner. Putin's been sowing the wind for years now and looks like he's now reaping the whirlwind. Too bad so many innocents on both sides have to die or be maimed for his vision of Greater Russia to be disassembled.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on September 26, 2022, 09:26:23 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 26, 2022, 07:41:39 PM
QuoteAlso, some experts have questioned the accuracy of tactical rockets being used against an enemy offensive.  They'll need to hit along the most ideal parts of the axis of advance, right between the phase lines, and to do that they may be forced to deploy via jet and not rocket.  That's a much more dangerous proposition and could lead to the horrific (for Russia) consequence of having a jet armed with nukes downed over enemy lines.

Weigh that with how Modi and Xi will respond to the use of nukes when considering if he's about to pull the trigger.
's
If I thought that Putin or his commanders were still making decisions rationally, I'd be a lot more confident in your assessment (qualified as it is, even).  War sucks, and just because I want one side to lose doesn't mean that I celebrate all the men and women who will have to die on both sides to make that happen.

Reading this news stories creates all sorts of confusing responses in me.  On the one hand, I know whom I want to win.  On the other hand, I get way too excited when I see them making progress.  Sometimes it feels to me more like I'm cheering for a sports team than I am watching soldiers bleed and die.

A lot of what I see these days feels like a really messed up version of wargamer's porn.

You know, I feel where your coming from.  There is a some what disconnect because it's not Americans fighting and dying, but I am heavily vested in Ukraine winning.  And Ukraine's colors are the same colors as the defending superbowl Champs, so maybe that's a good sign.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on September 26, 2022, 10:10:37 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 25, 2022, 11:57:13 PM
^Interesting optimistic conclusions, but not based in reality.

https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451 (https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/europe-s-challenge-to-survive-without-russian-gas-in-five-charts (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/europe-s-challenge-to-survive-without-russian-gas-in-five-charts)

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-edge-nord-stream-russian-gas-link-set-planned-shut-down-2022-07-10/ (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-edge-nord-stream-russian-gas-link-set-planned-shut-down-2022-07-10/)


The question isn't weather the EU can "survive" without Russian gas. The question is at what cost? The only possible way Russia has no economic leverage is if the EU is prepared to savage their economies and force their citizens to live without power.

"...but not based in reality." Says the person who posted a Jordan Peterson interview video. 

The EU won't have to force their citizens to live without power.

Europe's rapid shift away from Russian energy is particularly painful for the Kremlin: the energy sector represents around a third of Russian GDP, half of all fiscal revenues and 60% of exports, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Energy revenues fell to their lowest level in over a year in August, and that was before Moscow cut off gas flows to Europe in the hope of strong-arming European leaders into lifting the sanctions. The Kremlin has since being forced to sell oil to Asia at considerable discounts.

The decline in energy exports means the country's budget surplus has been heavily depleted.

"Russia knows that it has no leverage left in its energy war against Europe. Within two or three years, the EU will have gotten rid of its dependency on Russian gas," the EIU's Global Forecasting Director Agathe Demarais told CNBC.

This is a key reason why Russia has opted to cut off gas flows to Europe now, she suggested, with the Kremlin aware that this threat could carry far less weight in a few years' time.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/path-to-oblivion-ukraine-military-gains-could-deepen-russias-economic-woes.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/path-to-oblivion-ukraine-military-gains-could-deepen-russias-economic-woes.html)

But I suppose Agathe's assessment is "not based in reality", right?  ::)


Groggy




Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 26, 2022, 10:11:22 PM
I get how we are feeling conflicted - but what we feel ultimately doesnt matter a toss to what the Ukrainians are feeling about fighting for their right to exisit.  I found this clip pretty emotional and telling and honestly this is what the Russians need to be seeing.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1573646539188224002
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2022, 10:26:45 PM
I've seen that video and  :bd:

this version of russia needs to be broken to its core and rebuilt.  its been a festering wound for 100 years thats crippled what should be one of the great countries of the world.  my opinion as a giddy warmonger is that russia needs to be defeated the same
way Germany and Japan were.
I also get, and have, the compassionate perspective that all these people are human beings with their lives interrupted in the most extreme ways possible.  but I have a side.  the russians conduct has my never again upbringing screaming.  so fuck those people!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 26, 2022, 10:47:13 PM
Quote from: Con on September 26, 2022, 10:11:22 PM
I get how we are feeling conflicted - but what we feel ultimately doesnt matter a toss to what the Ukrainians are feeling about fighting for their right to exisit.  I found this clip pretty emotional and telling and honestly this is what the Russians need to be seeing.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1573646539188224002

My only conflict is the pain I feel for Russians that are forced to fight and die in this pointless war. 

The defeat of Russia here is paramount.  Understanding Russian and Ukranian relations and the Russian opinion of "Potato Eating Malroos" in Ukraine is central to that. 

They did a genocide in the 30's.  It led to some Ukrainians deciding to side with the Nazis in WW2 because of what had been done to them because the felt the Germans were better masters.  There is evidence Putin and the current regime wants to do another ethnographic destruction once they win.

If Russia does take Ukraine as they wish, expect what we've historically seen them do the "Malroos".  Mass execution, starvation, ethnic erasure, banning of language, ect.

There's a horrible, fearful cost of not confronting this. 

It's easy to want to avoid a wider war.  We may want "Peace in our time" like the pseudo-intellectual Peterson wants. 

However, if we look at this and say "Putin is a man that is so unhinged he'll risk his relations with India and China, his allies and use nuclear weapons" then ask how else unhinged is Putin?

Is a man who is so insane to risk that one you want to appease? 

That's the thing that is hanging over the head.  Peterson and others offered no solution.  They hinted at it.  The solution they toyed with is "Let Putin have what he wants, withdraw military support, let the Ukrainians lose, hope it's enough"

If he's so mad he'll use nukes and a mass mobilization to steal a victory...why does anyone think that will satisfy him?

He's already said he considers the Baltic States Russia. They're in NATO.  He has territorial claims on Finland. He claims all Moldava.

If anyone thinks he's so unhinged to use nuclear weapons why do they think he'll be reasonable and not cross the NATO red line to the Baltic states if NATO shows any weakness to him?

These are things that give me pause.  They're rooted in historical precedent and what happens when strong coalitions show weakness to people like Peterson says are "Men who won't say no"

Does that mean there's a good or pleasant or ideal response?  No.  As a wargamer and historian who thankfully never had to fight but knows and works professionally with many who have I know that war is the WORST option. 

There are times when you have to choose between hells.  Putin...and Putin alone has put us in that world.  That's what monsters do.  That's where Peterson lost me quickly where he fast dismissed a comparison to Putin and Hitler.  Yes, there's a little Hitler in everyone, but your dismissal of that is...beyond naïve. 

I'm sorry, I didn't want to respond to anything Jordan Peterson said.  He's best left where he is most beloved, 4chan.  But his invocation here is hard to ignore despite my intellectual distaste in even dancing around him.



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2022, 11:54:41 PM
 :o  kinda surprised this made it past the censors.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574491958101393411
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 26, 2022, 11:58:53 PM
^Can you explain in a PM how Jordan Peterson is just a "pseudo-intellectual"? I'm genuinely curious how you come to that conclusion. I'm hard-pressed to imagine that a "pseudo-intellectual" could be one of the top 50 most cited clinical psychologists of all time. I ask for you to enlighten me in a PM since it is not really appropriate for the thread. Thanks.

I disagree with your conclusion of what may be Peterson's solution to the situation. I didn't get appeasement from the clip at all, rather, my take away is that the west has boxed itself into a dangerous position that is largely the result of its own making.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 12:04:52 AM
throws ball back to Andrew on first base...  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 12:07:32 AM
one could make a claim that dr oz and dr phil are two of the most viewed doctors in their field.
and yet both are  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 27, 2022, 01:30:14 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 26, 2022, 11:58:53 PM
^Can you explain in a PM how Jordan Peterson is just a "pseudo-intellectual"? I'm genuinely curious how you come to that conclusion. I'm hard-pressed to imagine that a "pseudo-intellectual" could be one of the top 50 most cited clinical psychologists of all time. I ask for you to enlighten me in a PM since it is not really appropriate for the thread. Thanks.

I disagree with your conclusion of what may be Peterson's solution to the situation. I didn't get appeasement from the clip at all, rather, my take away is that the west has boxed itself into a dangerous position that is largely the result of its own making.

No need in a PM.

I say pseudo-intellectual because others have called him that due to his attempts to establish himself in a area beyond clinical psychology.

Also because he's been largely against the scientific consensus in his own field on gender identity.  He's also against the scientific consensus on fields outside his own like climate change.

I do think he's a remarkably intelligent and very coherent and eloquent person.   I don't think he's an expert in the field he's discussing.

My assignment of him as a "pseudo-intellectual" is in him constantly dabbling in fields that aren't his, like climate science, or geopolitics, and claiming to be an expert.

Listen, I have a degree in history, I'm a thesis I've written and a few hours short on my masters I intend to get, I'll get my PhD when I'm finally in a place where I'm financially able.  I've got my PhD backers, done my work my research, and it's on a subject we're talking about in this thread.

I wouldn't DARE to get my grill up in Roman History, or China, or Nuclear Physics, or Psychology.  I dabble in Religion because I was in seminary before I became an agnostic.

But Peterson plays in those fields past his.  That's where the "pseudo-intellectual" comes in.   

In my current job I do sales.  Man, I can sound as smart as he does but not quite be right.  That's been my issue with him.

And I didn't see a good solution by him.

Anyway, sorry no PM.  Hope you forgive me.  I actually respect your responses here Jarhead because I respect the horror of the situation.  I hate the destruction of lives here.  I just want my opinions public.

I do think every opinion here is valid and this thread is important.  As a historian this is a moment in the making.  We'll be discussing this and debating it hopefully for decades to come.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 27, 2022, 01:46:29 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 12:07:32 AM
one could make a claim that dr oz and dr phil are two of the most viewed doctors in their field.
and yet both are  :2funny:

I've actually worked with both of them professionally in my field.  They are...

Anyway..
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 27, 2022, 03:44:58 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 27, 2022, 01:30:14 AM

-snip-

Anyway, sorry no PM.  Hope you forgive me.  I actually respect your responses here Jarhead because I respect the horror of the situation.  I hate the destruction of lives here.  I just want my opinions public.

I do think every opinion here is valid and this thread is important.  As a historian this is a moment in the making.  We'll be discussing this and debating it hopefully for decades to come.

That was a good post and I'd like to reiterate the moment in history as well. Putin ordered Russia to wage a war against Ukraine with a genocidal intent. This is a fact. The purpose of denazifying Ukraine was nothing less of that either you as a Little Russian agree to live under Big Russians, or you're sent to filtration camps as a nazi. The Russian News Agency actually published a lengthy news item the day after invasion congratulating Putin for having unified Belarus and Ukraine to Russki Mir once and for all.

Here's the Anne Applebaum's article (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/ukraine-victory-russia-putin/671405/) on The Atlantic with the source, and here's the waybackmachine article via Google Translate (https://web-archive-org.translate.goog/web/20220226051154/https:/ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp):

QuoteRussia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe of our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great price, yes, through the tragic events of the virtually civil war, because now brothers separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies are still shooting at each other - but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness by bringing together the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entire set of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians.

Each of us representing the democratic West in our individual countries were then faced with a reality that either we accept this, or we actually do something about it. Not an easy proposition by any means.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 08:23:20 AM
seems theres been a bit of sabotage at the nordstream pipelines.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdqbIZIWIAEBaHF?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 27, 2022, 09:12:21 AM
^
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mystery-gas-leaks-hit-major-russian-undersea-gas-pipelines-europe-2022-09-27/

Europe was investigating leaks in two Russian gas pipelines that churned up the Baltic Sea with bubbles on Tuesday and raised concerns from Copenhagen to Moscow about sabotage on infrastructure at the heart of a European energy standoff.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 27, 2022, 09:17:38 AM
Georgia is beautiful this time of the year.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fdm3hGFakAAijpk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)    (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fdm3hHHagAAaGxK?format=jpg&name=large)


Satellite imagery from September 25, 2022 shows a large traffic jam of vehicles leaving Russia and attempting to cross the border into Georgia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 27, 2022, 09:21:14 AM
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-avslojar-tva-explosioner-intill-nord-stream 

THere are reports from the Seismic institute of Sweden saying it detected two explosions magnitude 2.3 during the night in the vicinity of  the pipelines. Suspected Sabotage.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 27, 2022, 09:39:05 AM
^ this lines or at a depth of 80 meters (around 90 yards).

Not easy to reach, if this is sabotage.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 27, 2022, 09:46:24 AM
Maybe I am missing the obvious but who gains by sabotaging the pipelines now? 
The Russians lose a leverage tool forever holding the carrot out for future gas supplies
The Europeans lose a pipeline that they could fill storage today but they are almost at full capacity so It's impact is less than if this happened 6 months ago.
Any theories?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 27, 2022, 09:55:46 AM
Quote from: Con on September 27, 2022, 09:46:24 AM
Maybe I am missing the obvious but who gains by sabotaging the pipelines now? 
The Russians lose a leverage tool forever holding the carrot out for future gas supplies
The Europeans lose a pipeline that they could fill storage today but they are almost at full capacity so It's impact is less than if this happened 6 months ago.
Any theories?

Russia may see damage to the pipeline by sabotage as a way to save political face by denying responsibility for cutting off gas supply while still causing Europe economic damage. i also would not rule out the involvement of a third-party who would like to see a further escalation of the conflict.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 27, 2022, 10:09:11 AM
And this happened the same day :

https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-poland-gas-pipeline-opens-in-key-move-to-cut-dependency-on-russia
https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/09/26/new-polish-gas-pipeline-from-norway-to-reach-full-capacity-ahead-of-schedule/

Leaders from Poland, Norway and Denmark have attended a ceremony to mark the opening of the new Baltic Pipe, a key stage in the drive to wean Poland and Europe off Russian gas.

The pipeline will transport natural gas from the Norwegian shelf via Denmark and through the Baltic Sea to Poland. It is the centrepiece of a Polish strategy to diversify away from Russia that began years before Moscow's February invasion of Ukraine triggered a global energy crisis.

The flows from Norway along with supplies via liquefied gas terminals are central to Poland's plan. The country was cut off from Russian gas supplies in April, allegedly for refusing to pay in roubles.


(https://static.euronews.com/articles/stories/07/05/38/52/808x456_cmsv2_a2045dd2-31a6-5d0d-8ff5-1989ac97e04b-7053852.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 27, 2022, 10:14:39 AM
And there's this: https://www.ptil.no/en/supervision/important-messages/2022/observations-of-unidentified-dronesaircraft-offshore/ and https://gcaptain.com/norwegian-regulator-warns-of-drones-spotted-near-offshore-platforms/

Operator companies [of drilling/Petroleum infrastructure] on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) have recently given warnings/notifications of a number of observations concerning unidentified drones/aircraft close to offshore installations.

Newspaper Stavanger Aftenblad reported last week that unidentified drones had been observed at least at six Equinor installations, including at its giant oilfield Johan Sverdrup.

Last Tuesday, a drone was observed some 50 meters away from Equinor's Heidrun platform in the North Sea, breaching the 500-meter security perimeter, the newspaper reported.

"There have been observations of drones at some of our installations on the Norwegian continental shelf," a spokesperson for Equinor told Reuters, declining to elaborate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 27, 2022, 10:22:13 AM
If it's sabotage, it would have likely been set up some time ago, to ensure escape by plausible actors.

80 meters is not deep for a sub (bringing divers) -- in fact dangerously shallow, unless there are deeper parts nearby. By 'dangerous' I mainly mean 'most liable to detection and interception'. If a sub set this up, NATO will almost surely know about its arrival and departure, whenever that happened (and proportionately more likely, the shallower the waters.)

Kind of ditto, except moreso, if a surface ship set this up: you have all the likelihood of sonar detection, plus all other surface forms of detection up to and including satellites.

Could (underwater) drones (sort of like advanced torpedoes) do this? Silent running in a leisurely route to the target, maybe near the surface for burst satellite location tracking and adjustment instructions (to avoid potential surface traffic spotting them), then diving for the final hit? Seems initially plausible, and least likely to be tracked back to the source -- though I realize it's hard to overestimate NATO tracking capabilities.  :notworthy:

Edited to add: I'm not talking about arial drones, per Tripoli's report above. Those have to be a different problem, since they couldn't transfer to underwater operation. (Unless we're getting into the weird UFO drone reports being recently acknowledged elsewhere, going in and out of the water!)

The upshot here is: how plausible would undetected sabotage be in this situation?

Or, something like explosives being sent down the tube from an maintenance access point (similar to the pipeline nuke plan from The World Is Not Enough)? Since there's clearly gas in the pipes, and seems to have been there since the explosion, then I suppose the gas would have to be evacuated somehow first, then send the maintenance sleds down to rest at the target area, gas was turned back on, detonation. Probably undetectable in that case, though obviously this couldn't be done without attaining, or already having, control of the access point (and gas evacuation/return, assuming this couldn't be done with gas in the lines all the time.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 27, 2022, 10:27:07 AM
Come to think of it: wouldn't someone have to turn off the gas first in any case? -- because the detonation would also detonate up and down the pipeline(s), causing catastrophic damage? That doesn't seem to have happened...?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 27, 2022, 10:27:14 AM
Quote from: Con on September 27, 2022, 09:46:24 AM
Maybe I am missing the obvious but who gains by sabotaging the pipelines now? 
The Russians lose a leverage tool forever holding the carrot out for future gas supplies
The Europeans lose a pipeline that they could fill storage today but they are almost at full capacity so It's impact is less than if this happened 6 months ago.
Any theories?
Given Russia's incompetince, could they have been aiming for the Norwegian pipeline and got their own? 

Or maybe it was to show europe that the norwegian pipeline could be shut off at any time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 27, 2022, 10:32:26 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 27, 2022, 10:22:13 AM
If it's sabotage, it would have likely been set up some time ago, to ensure escape by plausible actors.

80 meters is not deep for a sub (bringing divers) -- in fact dangerously shallow, unless there are deeper parts nearby. By 'dangerous' I mainly mean 'most liable to detection and interception'. If a sub set this up, NATO will almost surely know about its arrival and departure, whenever that happened (and proportionately more likely, the shallower the waters.)

Kind of ditto, except moreso, if a surface ship set this up: you have all the likelihood of sonar detection, plus all other surface forms of detection up to and including satellites.

Could (underwater) drones (sort of like advanced torpedoes) do this? Silent running in a leisurely route to the target, maybe near the surface for burst satellite location tracking and adjustment instructions (to avoid potential surface traffic spotting them), then diving for the final hit? Seems initially plausible, and least likely to be tracked back to the source -- though I realize it's hard to overestimate NATO tracking capabilities.  :notworthy:

Edited to add: I'm not talking about arial drones, per Tripoli's report above. Those have to be a different problem, since they couldn't transfer to underwater operation. (Unless we're getting into the weird UFO drone reports being recently acknowledged elsewhere, going in and out of the water!)

The upshot here is: how plausible would undetected sabotage be in this situation?

Or, something like explosives being sent down the tube from an maintenance access point (similar to the pipeline nuke plan from The World Is Not Enough)? Since there's clearly gas in the pipes, and seems to have been there since the explosion, then I suppose the gas would have to be evacuated somehow first, then send the maintenance sleds down to rest at the target area, gas was turned back on, detonation. Probably undetectable in that case, though obviously this couldn't be done without attaining, or already having, control of the access point (and gas evacuation/return, assuming this couldn't be done with gas in the lines all the time.)

Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting that the drones spotted in the North Sea were used to attack the pipelines.  I am suggesting that the same parties who likely sabotaged the pipelines, in what appears to be an effort to cut Western Europe's supply of natural gas, would have a similar interest in further reducing European supplies of gas by sabotaging other sources of gas, such as those that come from the North Sea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 27, 2022, 10:32:55 AM
Industrial infrastructure espionage.... getting pretty James Bond out there.

It's my opinion that espionage/Psy Ops is Russia's greatest strength. Look at the troll farm activity in America.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 27, 2022, 10:35:55 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 27, 2022, 10:27:07 AM
Come to think of it: wouldn't someone have to turn off the gas first in any case? -- because the detonation would also detonate up and down the pipeline(s), causing catastrophic damage? That doesn't seem to have happened...?
Gas needs oxygen to burn so an explosion in the pipeline would not result in further damage.  Also don't think they need to evacuate the pipeline to run a sled down it.

Underwater drones would need a fiberoptic cable to operate under manual control.  Radio waves won't penetrate that deep (the reason subs use ELF for communications at shallow depths). 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 27, 2022, 10:41:48 AM
My guess is that, with determined operators (with expertise somewhere between a Dive Instructor who'd worked construction and a US Navy Seal) it'd be easy to park a boat 5 or 10 miles away, drop guys over the side with gear in a few minutes, have them ride SCUBA sleds to the site, plant explosives on a 48- or 72-hour delay, ride SCUBA sleds to some other boat, get picked up and quickly be on their way.  I've now exhausted my knowledge on this topic, so I'll shut up.    :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 27, 2022, 10:44:03 AM
On the larger topic...  I think the assumption that any decision makers in Russia are playing with a full deck of facts right now is optimistic.  Explaining somebody's motives when you don't even know how compromised their understanding of reality might be is almost impossible. 

There has been a confirmed mass shooting at a Russian school in the last 48 hours.  21 or more dead (mostly students), with another 48 injured (mostly students).  Early media reports suggest he was wearing a t-shirt with Nazi inscriptions and messaging, but the provenance of that information is unclear.  Having been all too familiar with school shootings where I live today, my heart goes out to everybody affected.  School shootings are much more traumatic for a community than almost anything else short of war.

Was this just a crazed lunatic with a gun?  Do we even know if the Kremlin isn't just taking advantage of an unexpected tragedy to layer some misinformation on top to justify its war against Ukraine?  Was it a red flag operation conducted by a really psychotic Russian faction of some sort?  Was this guy really a state-sponsored Ukrainian shooter intent on targeting Russian citizens where they were vulnerable? 

We'll never know for sure.  All I do know is that I won't trust a word out of the Russian government.  Even if you're living in a free-press community where a school shooting happened, it typically takes months for all the facts to come out.  So all we can do is speculate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 27, 2022, 10:53:38 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 27, 2022, 10:41:48 AM
My guess is that, with determined operators (with expertise somewhere between a Dive Instructor who'd worked construction and a US Navy Seal) it'd be easy to park a boat 5 or 10 miles away, drop guys over the side with gear in a few minutes, have them ride SCUBA sleds to the site, plant explosives on a 48- or 72-hour delay, ride SCUBA sleds to some other boat, get picked up and quickly be on their way.  I've now exhausted my knowledge on this topic, so I'll shut up.    :crazy2:

Come to think of it, they wouldn't even need to park a ship, strictly speaking: just drop off, go out, come back, and be picked up by someone else.


Re oxygen to burn (via Bob), good point, forgot about that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 27, 2022, 10:56:56 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 27, 2022, 10:44:03 AM

We'll never know for sure.  All I do know is that I won't trust a word out of the Russian government.  Even if you're living in a free-press community where a school shooting happened, it typically takes months for all the facts to come out.  So all we can do is speculate.

I am now fully expecting the gunman to be announced as a 'fanatic nazis Ukraine'.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 27, 2022, 10:58:14 AM
Meanwhile, Suchimimus provides video of Russia dismantling its pontoon bridge at Antonovsky:



Pretty expected.


Did we talk upthread about reports of Russians surging their Kilos out of their Crimean sub base(s)?

Also, I've seen videos purporting to be footage of inflammatories (to me it looked like repurposed flares, which didn't ignite anything on the ground) being sprinkled on at least one Ukraine city during the night (late last week) from airburst rounds. Haven't found confirmation of this yet, and don't think I've heard discussion of it upthread...?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 11:07:01 AM
theyve been using thermite munitions on civilians since the beginning.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 27, 2022, 12:04:10 PM
I think Putin is pretty much telling us what he is going to do...or at least what he intends to do. Annexation and nukes are part of the picture.

I think that he is prioritizing how he looks to his internal hard liners and cares less about what the world thinks at this point.

And, Putin is definitely a gambler.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 27, 2022, 12:14:21 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 27, 2022, 12:04:10 PM
I think Putin is pretty much telling us what he is going to do...or at least what he intends to do. Annexation and nukes are part of the picture.

I think that he is prioritizing how he looks to his internal hard liners and cares less about what the world thinks at this point.

And, Putin is definitely a gambler.

Related to your point, the Dupuy Institute hypothesizes this is the Russian strategy ( http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2022/09/24/a-projected-plan-for-the-russo-ukrainian-war/ ) :

o   Ride out the protests. They can probably do this is if it doesn't turn into tens of thousands of protestors on the street. Ride out winter on the battlefield. There is only three-four weeks of good campaign weather left. If Russia can ride this out without many major losses, then they are set to settle down and wait out the war in stalemate until spring. (Right now, I am guessing they will lose Lyman and then that might be the end of the Ukrainian offensive).
o   Russia can then rebuild their army in Ukraine for the spring with 400,000 troops or more.
o   Europe will go through a rough winter due to the higher gas and oil prices. This may weaken their support for Ukraine. So far, only Hungary has broken from the EU position on this. It does not appear that anyone else is planning to right now.
o   The Russian army may then have enough force to hold a successful defensive position through to next spring/summer/fall. They almost held for most of this fall, until the Ukrainian breakthrough at Balakliya.
o   Then Putin will be in position to try to negotiate a peace settlement that surrenders none of the "new Russia" that they have claimed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 27, 2022, 12:40:08 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on September 27, 2022, 12:14:21 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 27, 2022, 12:04:10 PM
I think Putin is pretty much telling us what he is going to do...or at least what he intends to do. Annexation and nukes are part of the picture.

I think that he is prioritizing how he looks to his internal hard liners and cares less about what the world thinks at this point.

And, Putin is definitely a gambler.

Related to your point, the Dupuy Institute hypothesizes this is the Russian strategy ( http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2022/09/24/a-projected-plan-for-the-russo-ukrainian-war/ ) :

o   Ride out the protests. They can probably do this is if it doesn't turn into tens of thousands of protestors on the street. Ride out winter on the battlefield. There is only three-four weeks of good campaign weather left. If Russia can ride this out without many major losses, then they are set to settle down and wait out the war in stalemate until spring. (Right now, I am guessing they will lose Lyman and then that might be the end of the Ukrainian offensive).
o   Russia can then rebuild their army in Ukraine for the spring with 400,000 troops or more.
o   Europe will go through a rough winter due to the higher gas and oil prices. This may weaken their support for Ukraine. So far, only Hungary has broken from the EU position on this. It does not appear that anyone else is planning to right now.
o   The Russian army may then have enough force to hold a successful defensive position through to next spring/summer/fall. They almost held for most of this fall, until the Ukrainian breakthrough at Balakliya.
o   Then Putin will be in position to try to negotiate a peace settlement that surrenders none of the "new Russia" that they have claimed.

  That sounds plausible.  The big problem for Putin, however, I think is no longer in Russia, but in Ukraine.  The problem there is that he has succeeded in making 40 million people really interested
in getting vengeance.  The balance of irrationality is no longer completely on his side.  Sure, he's not playing with a full deck, but the Ukrainians have an even smaller deck and every card in it says
get vengeance for what Russia has done.  That may not turn out well for anyone, but Russia is pretty high on the list of those who are not going to come out of this in good shape.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 27, 2022, 12:41:46 PM
The first polling stations closed at 3 p.m. Belgian time. More than 90 percent of voters voted "yes" according to the first preliminary results, the agencies Ria Novosti, TASS and Interfax report.
Referendums are valid if more than 50 percent of the voters showed up. In Luhansk, the turnout would be more than 92 percent, according to the authorities.

Typical Russian election results ...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 27, 2022, 01:09:48 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on September 27, 2022, 12:40:08 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on September 27, 2022, 12:14:21 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 27, 2022, 12:04:10 PM
I think Putin is pretty much telling us what he is going to do...or at least what he intends to do. Annexation and nukes are part of the picture.

I think that he is prioritizing how he looks to his internal hard liners and cares less about what the world thinks at this point.

And, Putin is definitely a gambler.

Related to your point, the Dupuy Institute hypothesizes this is the Russian strategy ( http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2022/09/24/a-projected-plan-for-the-russo-ukrainian-war/ ) :

o   Ride out the protests. They can probably do this is if it doesn't turn into tens of thousands of protestors on the street. Ride out winter on the battlefield. There is only three-four weeks of good campaign weather left. If Russia can ride this out without many major losses, then they are set to settle down and wait out the war in stalemate until spring. (Right now, I am guessing they will lose Lyman and then that might be the end of the Ukrainian offensive).
o   Russia can then rebuild their army in Ukraine for the spring with 400,000 troops or more.
o   Europe will go through a rough winter due to the higher gas and oil prices. This may weaken their support for Ukraine. So far, only Hungary has broken from the EU position on this. It does not appear that anyone else is planning to right now.
o   The Russian army may then have enough force to hold a successful defensive position through to next spring/summer/fall. They almost held for most of this fall, until the Ukrainian breakthrough at Balakliya.
o   Then Putin will be in position to try to negotiate a peace settlement that surrenders none of the "new Russia" that they have claimed.

  That sounds plausible.  The big problem for Putin, however, I think is no longer in Russia, but in Ukraine.  The problem there is that he has succeeded in making 40 million people really interested
in getting vengeance.  The balance of irrationality is no longer completely on his side.  Sure, he's not playing with a full deck, but the Ukrainians have an even smaller deck and every card in it says
get vengeance for what Russia has done.  That may not turn out well for anyone, but Russia is pretty high on the list of those who are not going to come out of this in good shape.

I really hope I am wrong, but I think that is where the nukes come in. I think Putin might bet that a few well placed low-yield nukes would shock the Ukrainians into accepting the annex line and cease fire.

But if he is really thinking that way, you are right; he would be ignoring the human element that probably is driving the war right now.

In history, governments and populations have put up with tremendous devastation and hardship, just because they still had to teach the other side a lesson, had to take back lost land, or couldn't give up hard fought gains.

I don't think the Ukrainians are going to be scared off by low yield tactical nukes or chemical attacks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 27, 2022, 01:44:04 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 27, 2022, 01:09:48 PM

I think Putin might bet that a few well placed low-yield nukes would shock the Ukrainians into accepting the annex line and cease fire.


   Nukes are probably under serious consideration, but that's not necessarily a simple thing to work out (okay, I'm sure the Russians will blow it somehow, but still there must be some kind
of logic to it).  If you just drop a few here and there...well, you've set yourself up for some big problems and quite probably not solved any of the ones you had.  What about one sort of by accident?
Just to show you mean business (as if getting your army destroyed didn't seem very convincing)?  Same problems.  What about a big one on Kyiv?  It seems like that would just trigger something like
WWIII and with your army a wreck and your military a mess and no allies -- is that a good plan?  What about a dense set of say 20 right on the front lines of the Ukrainians?  Isn't that just going
to get you chopped up by NATO?  They aren't going to stand around while you blow up things like that are they?

  It's just hard to see how nukes would put Russia in a better situation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 27, 2022, 02:01:51 PM
On the use of nukes by the bear in the yellow and blue country*:

I don't think he's that stupid to do that in UKR.  It would be suicide.  Just MHO though.



*I use code words to avoid detection so please bear with me and try to understand what I'm saying.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 27, 2022, 02:17:56 PM
It could very well be suicide. 

Modi and Xi won't stand for it.  They're supporting him and skirting sanctions, but if he uses nukes that'll force their hand.  They won't stand up and be counted with a nuclear rogue.

It'll also hurt Russia right now physically worse than Ukraine.  Battlefield nukes will spread fallout westerly, right into large Russian population centers.   Russian people in Kursk getting radiation sick won't mix well with an unpopular draft. 

It also may push the west to even more commit resources and equipment to Ukraine.  Those Leopard 2 tanks and reserve Abrams they're being denied may not be anymore. 

Does that mean Putin won't use them?  No.  He hasn't been acting rationally up until now so no reason to expect he'll change that course.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 27, 2022, 02:30:27 PM
My Occam's razor for these fake referenda is that Putin's simply looking to change the narrative vis-a-vis his mobilisation. No longer it is Russia invading Ukraine, but Ukraine attacking mother Russia. Every patriot is now needed to fight for the honour of Russia. Nukes talk is just a side attraction to scare off Germans, in particular.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 27, 2022, 02:37:32 PM
From an interview with Medvedev : (google translate)

After the sharp warnings from the United States, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev reiterated that Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons "if necessary".

That is true in "settled cases" and in "strict accordance with state policy principles on nuclear deterrence," Medvedev, former president and now vice-chairman of the Russian Security Council, writes on Telegram. Medvedev mentioned the following conditions for a possible Russian nuclear attack: "If we or our allies are attacked with such weapons, or if aggression with conventional weapons threatens the very existence of our state." President Vladimir Putin recently said the same thing.

Russia will also make every effort to ensure that "enemy neighbors" such as Ukraine, "directly controlled by NATO countries", do not acquire nuclear weapons. "If the threat to Russia exceeds a certain danger threshold, we must respond," he said. "Without asking anyone's permission, without long consultation. And that is certainly not a bluff." Medvedev is known for his stern statements: he has already threatened to use nuclear weapons several times.

However, Medvedev also writes that he does not assume that NATO would intervene in the conflict in such a scenario. "After all, the security of Washington, London and Brussels is far more important to the North Atlantic Alliance than the fate of a dying Ukraine that no one needs." He said the supply of modern weapons is "pure business" for Western countries.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 27, 2022, 02:39:18 PM
For those who are interested, "War on the Rocks" had a pretty good 35-minute long podcast with Michael Kofman IRT the Russian mobilization.  I was working out when I listened to it, so I didn't take notes, but they cover a lot of ground.  Much of what they talk about is the implications of the mobilization, both politically and militarily.  It is well worth the listen.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/russias-plan-to-stay-in-the-war/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 02:41:48 PM
the Danes seem to think the leaks are deliberate.

https://www.thelocal.dk/20220927/danish-pm-refuses-to-rule-out-sabotage-after-leaks-in-russia-europe-gas-pipelines/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 27, 2022, 03:20:37 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on September 27, 2022, 02:37:32 PM
From an interview with Medvedev : (google translate)

After the sharp warnings from the United States, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev reiterated that Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons "if necessary".

That is true in "settled cases" and in "strict accordance with state policy principles on nuclear deterrence," Medvedev, former president and now vice-chairman of the Russian Security Council, writes on Telegram. Medvedev mentioned the following conditions for a possible Russian nuclear attack: "If we or our allies are attacked with such weapons, or if aggression with conventional weapons threatens the very existence of our state." President Vladimir Putin recently said the same thing.

Russia will also make every effort to ensure that "enemy neighbors" such as Ukraine, "directly controlled by NATO countries", do not acquire nuclear weapons. "If the threat to Russia exceeds a certain danger threshold, we must respond," he said. "Without asking anyone's permission, without long consultation. And that is certainly not a bluff." Medvedev is known for his stern statements: he has already threatened to use nuclear weapons several times.

However, Medvedev also writes that he does not assume that NATO would intervene in the conflict in such a scenario. "After all, the security of Washington, London and Brussels is far more important to the North Atlantic Alliance than the fate of a dying Ukraine that no one needs." He said the supply of modern weapons is "pure business" for Western countries.


  It's funny how anxious the Russians seem to be to make sure the Ukrainians really look for vengeance.  Referring to the "fate of a dying Ukraine that no one needs" does not seem to be
a good way to make friends and influence people to think of you in a positive way in Ukraine.  Also if nobody needs Ukraine, why are the Russians wrecking their whole socio-economic, diplomatic, and military structures to hang on to a few oblasts?

  It's also odd that everybody is supposed to be busily ignoring the basic fact that if Russia blows Ukraine away, NATO will have to move in there to protect their own positions across the whole front.  You really can't just let Mr. Nuke drive clear to Slovakia just because his army is such a wreck he can't do anything else.  If Russia Nukes the Ukrainian army and drives into Ukraine, NATO will have to stop the Russians somewhere short of Slovakia.  Hell, at that point it might be time to redraw some boundaries and kick Russia out of the UN. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 27, 2022, 08:10:35 PM
The moment the first Russian nuke goes off, they're out of the Security Council at least -- not necessarily out of the UN per se. But practically every nation (except Cuba maybe ;) ) will ally against them. This is what he is willing to do; this is what you can expect. Make your choice.


Regarding the Dupuy Institute estimate of his plan: I agree it seems like something the Russians would be thinking of, but I'm morbidly curious to see if 400,000 (more-or-less-)new Russian troops can be gotten ready to do anything useful by next year. I'd almost suspect the plan is to surge them and then nuke their own surge and try to convince people Ukraine did it -- except I don't yet see how Russia could even support a relevant fraction of that number to get them in place to surge.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 08:17:46 PM
supposedly the first recruits are already getting captured.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 08:58:51 PM
 :DD  these people might really start the revolution by accident.
pretty sure its a parody.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574865224108220423
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 27, 2022, 09:16:03 PM
This is either a clever parody produced by Ukrainians, or it's the Russian version of Reality TV.  I'm not sure which.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 09:23:45 PM
its a parody of subtitles
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2022, 01:33:22 AM
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1574946905376686081
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 28, 2022, 02:49:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 08:58:51 PM
:DD  these people might really start the revolution by accident.
pretty sure its a parody.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574865224108220423
Unbelievable!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 28, 2022, 04:10:53 AM
Quote from: Anguille on September 28, 2022, 02:49:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 08:58:51 PM
:DD  these people might really start the revolution by accident.
pretty sure its a parody.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574865224108220423
Unbelievable!
It is a parody account.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 28, 2022, 04:49:09 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 28, 2022, 04:10:53 AM
Quote from: Anguille on September 28, 2022, 02:49:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 08:58:51 PM
:DD  these people might really start the revolution by accident.
pretty sure its a parody.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574865224108220423
Unbelievable!
It is a parody account.
It's very well done!  :clap:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 28, 2022, 05:19:17 AM
Quote from: Anguille on September 28, 2022, 04:49:09 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 28, 2022, 04:10:53 AM
Quote from: Anguille on September 28, 2022, 02:49:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2022, 08:58:51 PM
:DD  these people might really start the revolution by accident.
pretty sure its a parody.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574865224108220423
Unbelievable!
It is a parody account.
It's very well done!  :clap:
Unbelievably well, even  :D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 28, 2022, 07:28:05 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 27, 2022, 08:10:35 PM
The moment the first Russian nuke goes off, they're out of the Security Council at least -- not necessarily out of the UN per se. But practically every nation (except Cuba maybe ;) ) will ally against them. This is what he is willing to do; this is what you can expect. Make your choice.


Regarding the Dupuy Institute estimate of his plan: I agree it seems like something the Russians would be thinking of, but I'm morbidly curious to see if 400,000 (more-or-less-)new Russian troops can be gotten ready to do anything useful by next year. I'd almost suspect the plan is to surge them and then nuke their own surge and try to convince people Ukraine did it -- except I don't yet see how Russia could even support a relevant fraction of that number to get them in place to surge.

  I think Russia might already have some trouble staying on the Security Council.  Why not put India on the council for example?

  Also, since I'm reading about the 1813/ Sixth Coalition against Napoleon -- there's the neutral zone problem (neutral zones were very popular around 1800 and there were a surprising number of them: the
Prussian one from 1795 or so, Hannover off and on, Silesia occasionally and the one by Breslau during the truce in the summer of '13).  and another instructive case -- Belgium in 1914.  The technical point
that brought the British Empire into the war was (I think -- I wrote my class papers on the Balkans for my WWI course) the German violation of Belgian neutrality.

  So, Ukraine was more or less a neutral zone -- not in NATO and not getting invaded by anyone else until 2014.  In 2014, Russia violated this implicit neutral zone.  The US at least did respond
by sending in agents and starting to train the Ukrainian army -- I guess they did a pretty good job with the training.
Next -- Feb '22, Russia massively violates the neutral zone, the West does what you do when somebody violates a neutral zone and arms the locals.

  Now if Russia fires nukes into a neutral zone, NATO will have to move in.  Simple neutral zone logic dictates that you don't let people just run amok in a neutral zone.  It just isn't done.

  Even if we ran a red vs blue simulation -- if red or blue goes into a neutral zone, you apply a definite response to keep that zone from obtruding into your operational space.  So nukes in the neutral zone
would mean you move into the zone to block whatever Mr. Nuke (red or blue) is up to.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 28, 2022, 09:24:04 AM
I've been watching a couple of videos from this guy. He's a british citizen living near St-Petersburg i think. He's pro Russia (i believe his wife is russian) and believes the russian speaking people in East Ukraine really want to join Russia. While i disagree with his opinion, i think his views and information he's got from the Russian side are very interesting to understand the other side. He's very articulate and is getting a lot of information...would love to hear your thoughts. Also interesting to read all the positive messages in english (meaning a lot of western guys support this as well).

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 28, 2022, 09:28:34 AM
I know many very proud native born Russians who still have many family members in Russia and none of them support the war or see it as anything other than unjustified naked aggression by Putin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 28, 2022, 09:35:02 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 28, 2022, 09:28:34 AM
I know many very proud native born Russians who still have many family members in Russia and none of them support the war or see it as anything other than unjustified naked aggression by Putin.
Obviously many are or were afraid to express themselves so far in Russia.

I think there's also part of Stockholm syndrom when you're so exposed to propaganda and lies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2022, 10:31:06 AM
from russian milbloggers so take with some salt:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdvLX0wUoAAA9bG?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2022, 12:36:26 PM
mobilization goes well, putin remains the master strategist!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdsGoMNXEAo7LZz?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2022, 12:47:26 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdwT7ksXgAIuaoa?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2022, 01:08:40 PM
the Ukraine will now get another 18 HiMars systems along with all those rockets we wont use anymore.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 28, 2022, 01:19:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2022, 12:36:26 PM
mobilization goes well, putin remains the master strategist!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdsGoMNXEAo7LZz?format=jpg&name=medium)

The most interesting thing to me in this photo is that you have three different types of mags in those AKs manufactured from entirely different factories. This may reflect on supply and logistics issues.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 28, 2022, 02:00:30 PM
^The magazine on the far left looks like the one they use for the AKS whilst the one on the far right looks more like the one used for the AK-47.  I wonder if the magazines are interchangeable with the different models?

That being said that picture depicts a level of unprofessionalism.  Shouldn't every last bit of kit be uniform? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 28, 2022, 02:42:19 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 27, 2022, 08:10:35 PM
The moment the first Russian nuke goes off, they're out of the Security Council at least -- not necessarily out of the UN per se. But practically every nation (except Cuba maybe ;) ) will ally against them. This is what he is willing to do; this is what you can expect. Make your choice.

It's interesting that politically Cuba is still close to Russia. I know while vacationing in Cuba, there is NO love for the Russians from the Cuban people.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 28, 2022, 02:55:37 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2022, 01:08:40 PM
the Ukraine will now get another 18 HiMars systems along with all those rockets we wont use anymore.  <:-)

Defending one's homeland seems to be a pretty good use of them to me.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 28, 2022, 04:04:22 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2022, 12:36:26 PM
mobilization goes well, putin remains the master strategist!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdsGoMNXEAo7LZz?format=jpg&name=medium)

I'm no expert on Russian insignia, but I think the guy in the center with the pistol on his belt is a "Senior Lieutenant" (three small stars on his shoulders).

The joke will write itself (FYI, I have a nice head of white hair myself).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 28, 2022, 04:50:36 PM
He looks like he's wondering if he's older than the gun.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 28, 2022, 04:55:15 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on September 28, 2022, 02:00:30 PM
^The magazine on the far left looks like the one they use for the AKS whilst the one on the far right looks more like the one used for the AK-47.  I wonder if the magazines are interchangeable with the different models?

That being said that picture depicts a level of unprofessionalism.  Shouldn't every last bit of kit be uniform?

Yes. All AK47 magazines are interchangeable, but the differences are based upon the factory in which they are manufactured, not necessarily for the particular model of rifle. My brother went through a phase were he was obsessed with collecting AK mags. He is basically an encyclopedia of knowledge on them. I would need to see the factory stamps to see where these three were made, but the one on the left, if Russian, probably comes from the Izhmash or Tula factory. The one in the middle looks like either an early Izhmash Spine Stamped or a slab side...it's hard to tell because of the angle its being held at and the one on the right I can't identify because I can't see the bottom.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 28, 2022, 05:01:21 PM
Pretty dramatic drone footage of a lone Russian soldier assaulting a Ukrainian position with grenades. Very accurate toss.

https://funker530.com/video/drone-captures-one-man-assault-by-russian-soldier/?ref=asmdss&fbclid=IwAR2dH4p-fwnDkzjHJx7E3n2Hr9-YFaMDzz-ikGhHYG592krOha87fmkxhE8 (https://funker530.com/video/drone-captures-one-man-assault-by-russian-soldier/?ref=asmdss&fbclid=IwAR2dH4p-fwnDkzjHJx7E3n2Hr9-YFaMDzz-ikGhHYG592krOha87fmkxhE8)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 28, 2022, 06:48:20 PM
Couple of things spring to mind
1. No recruit with 2 days training will be able to do this
2. Where was all his support - The Ukrainians had 5 soldiers to his one
3. All that bullshit I had in basic on learning to fire at targets at 400 yard distance with controlled stances and breathing is out the window - everyone is within knife fighting range
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 28, 2022, 07:21:23 PM
Quote from: Con on September 28, 2022, 06:48:20 PM
Couple of things spring to mind
1. No recruit with 2 days training will be able to do this
2. Where was all his support - The Ukrainians had 5 soldiers to his one
3. All that bullshit I had in basic on learning to fire at targets at 400 yard distance with controlled stances and breathing is out the window - everyone is within knife fighting range

There is supposition that he wasn't alone and was either supported by a larger group behind him, or that he was part of an advance element. But yeah, it does appear that he was going all Rambo until he started taking some fire.

Range in infantry combat is largely dependent on terrain. As this appears to be from the Donetsk region, which is very industrial and urban, I'd expect a lot of close-in fights. In Afghanistan, on the contrary, at least 50% of engagements were fought beyond 300 yards.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 28, 2022, 11:02:36 PM
In WW II, at least, there seemed to be some historical learnings that the US Army had placed too much emphasis on marksmanship and too little emphasis on saturating an area with bullets.  Or so I recall from reading something or another.  It may have been Closing with the Enemy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 29, 2022, 07:29:23 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2022, 12:36:26 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdsGoMNXEAo7LZz?format=jpg&name=medium)

Behold! -- the only new Russian platoon with uniform uniforms!

Created for propaganda purposes, of course.


Note: the pistol holster (pistol not guaranteed) also signifies a line officer of some kind. That would be an execution pistol in Soviet Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 29, 2022, 07:34:31 AM
Meanwhile: fourth unexplained Nordstream pipe 'leak' (for want of a better word) -- not news.

Impact on global warming -- news!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/as-fourth-nord-stream-leak-is-discovered-here-s-what-scientists-are-saying-about-the-environment-impact/ar-AA12niL1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=26f187a2471349088ca80b8f635fa9e0

Impact will be minimal, i.e. practically negligible -- not news. ;)


A little more seriously, we're now entering the territory of "he fell on a knife four times".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 29, 2022, 11:36:49 AM
I'm sure it's a false flag operation perpetrated by Swedish commandos to hasten their entry into NATO!


Or so a Russian spokesperson will soon announce on state TV...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 29, 2022, 01:24:55 PM
Oleksi Arestovych, one of the main advisers to Ukrainian President Zelensky, shows himself to be combative in an interview with the German weekly Bild.
He suspects that the first load of Russian mobilized will comprise about 100,000 recruits and that the majority will be killed. In fact, "Some of them have already died in the Kharkiv region." Arestovych does not have exact numbers, but it concerns "tens of", according to the adviser.

The information provided by Zelenski's advisor is not verified for the moment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 29, 2022, 02:41:40 PM
Not sure if it's confirmed, but I read there are more people fleeing Russia than there were committed to the initial invasion.  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 29, 2022, 02:54:37 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 29, 2022, 02:41:40 PM
Not sure if it's confirmed, but I read there are more people fleeing Russia than there were committed to the initial invasion.  :o

More than 300.000 have crossed borders but you can't know for sure the reason why they left.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: PeaceFlower on September 29, 2022, 03:29:51 PM
Tangential perhaps, but read that two U.S.
citizens are facing charges of spying for Russia.
A former Army major and his anesthesiologist wife. I call them "The Odd Couple"
after seeing their pictures.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/army-major-wife-russia-health-data-plot-b2178860.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/army-major-wife-russia-health-data-plot-b2178860.html)

News like this gives me the disconcerting sensation that when I wake up...I wake up in a parallel universe which is similar to, (but not identical) to the universe I fell asleep in.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 29, 2022, 03:39:21 PM
wow those teeth!   :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 29, 2022, 03:59:56 PM
the current Lyman....... bulge.   :P

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd2GVn5XgAITg-4?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 29, 2022, 06:48:58 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 29, 2022, 11:36:49 AM
I'm sure it's a false flag operation perpetrated by Swedish commandos to hasten their entry into NATO!
Or so a Russian spokesperson will soon announce on state TV...

How are you spying on Russian policy, Comrade!  ^-^

Reuters and the Epoch Times reporting on the TASS statement (it's behind a paywall, so I'll just copy-paste):

QuoteRussia said on Thursday that pipeline leaks emitting natural gas into the sea appear to be the result of state-sponsored terrorism.

The European Union is investigating the cause of the leaks in the Gazprom-led Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea and has said it suspects sabotage.

"This looks like some kind of terrorist act, possibly at the state level," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, according to TASS news. "This is an extremely dangerous situation that requires urgent investigation," he stressed.

A day before, Peskov dismissed claims that Moscow was behind the damage to the pipelines and described those allegations as "predictably stupid." He questioned why Russia would sabotage its own pipeline system, which would lead to the loss of significant amounts of "expensive" gas.

A report from CNN alleged that European security officials had observed Russian navy support ships and submarines not far from the sites of the leaks. When asked to comment on the CNN report, Peskov said there had been a much larger NATO presence in the area.

Russia has also said the leaks off the coasts of Denmark and Sweden occurred in territory that is "fully under the control" of U.S. intelligence agencies.

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were not supplying gas to Europe when the leaks were first detected on Monday but still had gas in them. Russia had halted deliveries via Nord Stream 1, saying Western sanctions had hampered operations. Nord Stream 2 had not started commercial operations.

Earlier this week, researchers with seismology agencies in Denmark and Sweden found that the damage to the pipelines was most likely caused by explosions and ruled out the possibility of natural cases.

A senior U.S. official told reporters Wednesday that the United States was not involved in the damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines and said "the jury is still out" on what happened. "We were absolutely not involved," the official said in response to a question.

"Many of our partners, I think, have determined or believe it is sabotage," the official remarked. "I'm just—I'm not at the point where I can tell you one way or the other."

Danish Defense Minister Morten Bodskov met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to discuss the damage to the pipelines on Wednesday. Both said it was an act of sabotage, although they did not publicly say who could be responsible.

"There is reason to be concerned about the security situation in the Baltic Sea region," Bodskov said in a statement to media outlets. "Russia has a significant military presence in the Baltic Sea region, and we expect them to continue their saber rattling."

No nation-state or group has claimed responsibility.

Meanwhile, Andrei Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council think tank, told the BBC that such an attack by Russia would make no sense.

"They always point finger at Russia but I think since it's the Russian property it would be not very logical for Russia to inflict damage upon it," he told the broadcaster. "There are other ways to make European lives harder. They can simply stop the gas deliveries without damaging the infrastructure."


The Russians do kind of have a point in this case: they can just keep the gas turned off, why waste it and hurt their own equipment?

Of course, being engaged routinely in being the Third Rome by out-Byzzing the Byzantines, this means they have plausible deniability!  :D So why do it? -- to sow chaos and distrust by hurting themselves? They shell themselves to start wars, etc.

Still, to be fair, it could be someone else. I won't go into details about the comment thread to the original article, which was speculating pretty crazily about who did it and why; I doubt such a(n unstated) theory in this case. But I can at least sympathize that in the current world almost any conspiracy theory sounds like it could be possible or even plausible.  :-\
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 29, 2022, 07:14:42 PM
At this stage every source I see was that Lyman has been cut off.  The troops did not pull back, they're surrounded.

That's different from Izium.  The Russians didn't stop the rout in Izium or try to.  They fell back leaving heavy equipment behind but they preserved their troops. 

Not so in Lyman.  Around 2500 high quality troops are now surrounded there.  They were ordered to die where they stood. 

That bothers me...that gives me concern that something else is in store. 

Also Lukashenko has made a statement that he's now mobilizing the Belorussian military to have 100k troops by February.  He reiterated that his border is open for Russia to use.  So it looks like he's now on board with a buildup for a potential 2023 push on Kyiv. 

There'll be no settlement where the Russians accept their annexed oblasts.  It's all or nothing for them...and the next....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 29, 2022, 07:38:19 PM
pretty sure the russians get out of a lot of financial obligations if they cant deliver contractual supplies due to 'other' circumstances.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 29, 2022, 07:39:39 PM
QuoteThat bothers me...that gives me concern that something else is in store. 

wait until the AFUK close the noose really tight and use a tactical warhead as a demonstration?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 29, 2022, 07:40:31 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd2yVP5XoAo47kO?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 29, 2022, 07:54:49 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 29, 2022, 06:48:58 PM

No nation-state or group has claimed responsibility.

Meanwhile, Andrei Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council think tank, told the BBC that such an attack by Russia would make no sense.

The Russians do kind of have a point in this case: they can just keep the gas turned off, why waste it and hurt their own equipment?


An interesting theory I heard on the BBC today is that if the Russians just cut off the gas (as they might want to do), they will receive hefty fines from their delivery contracts with Europe. However if there is 'sabotage'...they can claim 'force majeure' and don't pay the fines.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 29, 2022, 09:07:22 PM
^ True, you and Star have a good point. I couldn't figure out an angle -- I just don't think in terms of contracts. (I'm not against contracts, I just don't work in contracts often enough to think about contracts as context.)

Although, on the other hand, so what if they receive fines? How would those be enforced?

On yet the other hand, such a move by the Russians could be considered as implying they know they're going to lose the western European market permanently, in effect, so why not go ahead and get some (perceived) useage out of blapping their own pipelines? That could be any number of things, including something like a scorched earth policy to deny the immediate benefits of the pipelines to Putin's successors!

The scary angle to this theory, is that if they think they're going to necessarily be this much of a rogue nation now, what limits do they have to work within? To paraphase the old saying, if they're gonna be hung as a goat or as a bigger goat...


Meanwhile, if Russia didn't do it, my own bet would be China using proxies (perhaps of proxies).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 29, 2022, 11:22:51 PM
Lyman now by all indications encircled with two front line Russian formations completely pocketed.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 30, 2022, 01:06:48 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 29, 2022, 11:22:51 PM
Lyman now by all indications encircled with two front line Russian formations completely pocketed.



If Steiner attacks, everything will be all right.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 30, 2022, 09:00:37 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 29, 2022, 07:54:49 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 29, 2022, 06:48:58 PM

No nation-state or group has claimed responsibility.

Meanwhile, Andrei Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council think tank, told the BBC that such an attack by Russia would make no sense.

The Russians do kind of have a point in this case: they can just keep the gas turned off, why waste it and hurt their own equipment?


An interesting theory I heard on the BBC today is that if the Russians just cut off the gas (as they might want to do), they will receive hefty fines from their delivery contracts with Europe. However if there is 'sabotage'...they can claim 'force majeure' and don't pay the fines.

  Or maybe its an insurance scam.  Well, things are very odd.  I'm guessing (since it makes little sense), the Russians did it.  And let's look at the array of current, senseless Russian
efforts:

1) Why defend Lyman at all?  Much less with their best troops?  Was it to protect the region to be annexed? 
2) Okay...the pipeline, it makes little sense, but who else but the Russians have any interest in messing with the flow of gas to Western Europe?
3) Annexing...so you can have an excuse to waste your best troops?
4) Annexing...so you can have an excuse to nuke something?
5) Nuking something...so NATO will intervene?
6) Annexing...so that the UN will have even more reason to toss you out of the Security Council?
7) Getting Tossed out of the Security Council...so you can Nuke something (see above)?
8) drafting random people...because at least it is none of the above?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 30, 2022, 09:13:16 AM
Wow, yes they have done it....

It's now widely confirmed the UAF broke through on the Siverskyi Donets line south of Kreminna.  They also took Yampil.

That's massive.  The Siverskyi Donets was considered an obstacle they'd be unable to cross until they had significant pressure from their salient from the north.

If the Russians didn't rescind the no retreat order and evacuate the Kuban Regiment and the LNR Cossacks they're totally cut off. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 30, 2022, 09:53:34 AM
The UAF also pushed north from Kupiansk and expanded their northern beachhead over the Oskil.

They're now clearly displacing the Russian defensive line on the Oskil reservoir.   With Lyman now encircled and the Siverskyi Donets line broken, they've now eliminated the natural obstacles to Svatove and Starbolisk. 

This breaks the Russian flank in their offensive on the Donbas "Republics" on the same day Putin will annex them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 30, 2022, 10:14:20 AM
Putin is living in the Matrix, an alternate world from reality. It sort of reminds me of Hitler in his bunker moving around phantom divisions that no longer exist on the map.

Under ordinary circumstances, it would be amusing...but the more the conventional military outlook deteriorates for Russia, the more dangerous the situation actually becomes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 30, 2022, 10:17:56 AM
Business Insider sort of supports my 'China blapped Nordstream' theory as an aside in this article on the market effect of the sabotage:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-energy-crisis-russia-nord-stream-sabotage-natural-gas-prices-2022-9

(The Reuters article linked by BI, where International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said it's "very obvious" who did it, is only a stub, by the way: everything in the two or three lines of Reuters is quoted by BI. Chief Birol doesn't say who he thinks did it.)

If China thinks they're going to pull their economy out of the toilet drain later this year, they're going to start competing that-much-more for Russia's LNG over the next year, so would be pleased with an opportunity to screw over Western Europe's energy supplies at the same time. Besides, China is selling Russian LNG to Europe by tankers! -- the loss of the Nordstream pipes (at least for a while) bringing gas directly without a middle-man, would be a big advantage there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on September 30, 2022, 10:27:23 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 30, 2022, 10:14:20 AM
Putin is living in the Matrix, an alternate world from reality. It sort of reminds me of Hitler in his bunker moving around phantom divisions that no longer exist on the map.

Under ordinary circumstances, it would be amusing...but the more the conventional military outlook deteriorates for Russia, the more dangerous the situation actually becomes.
I've been watching parts of the signature ceremony, Putin's speech and the concert in Moscow....this is really sick. As you say, an alternative reality.  :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 30, 2022, 10:28:00 AM
One school of thought that came up as an answer to the gas pipeline bombing is that by Russia blaming the West for bombing their pipeline they are now free to use this as a false flag to respond in kind
Meaning North Sea oil/gas rigs, pipelines, tankers, infrastructure etc becomes a viable target.  That would be a major escalation and blow to Europes energy for winter.

Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 30, 2022, 10:32:10 AM
I do like this T Shirt
(https://boomidiadeal.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Dear-Putin-Kill-Yourself-In-A-Bunker-T-shirt.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 30, 2022, 10:41:02 AM
Hitler 2, Electric Boogaloo.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 30, 2022, 10:44:42 AM
Quote from: Con on September 30, 2022, 10:32:10 AM
I do like this T Shirt
(https://boomidiadeal.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Dear-Putin-Kill-Yourself-In-A-Bunker-T-shirt.jpg)

Is that a penis?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 30, 2022, 11:48:01 AM
Truisms about Russia
Russia always lies... always. It's pathological. - Pipeline
Russia never gives a rat's ass about its men in uniform. They are a tool. - Lyman
Russian leadership really only ever cares about Russian leadership - they lack empathy for everything except themselves. - Conscript situation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 30, 2022, 12:47:42 PM
Meant to note last night, upon seeing SirAndrew's report:

On Sept 23, Lukashenko declares there will be no mobilization, it's a lie, etc.

Sept 29: 100K mobilization by February, woo hoo!  <:-)  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 30, 2022, 01:58:16 PM
I am still looking for a full transcript of Putin's annexation speech. But apparently it was rambling list of grievances. The Guardian called it 'more angry taxi driver than world leader.'

Wapo summed it up in seven points:
1. Russia will never give up annexed regions
2. Ukraine must give in.
3. The West is trying to destroy Russia.
4. The United States, not Russia, poses a nuclear threat.
5. 'Anglo-Saxons' sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines.
6. Russia will never recognize LGBT rights.
7. In the words of Ivan Ilyin, Russia's 'destiny is my destiny.'

I guess number 6 is there well...just because.

Not to get too far off the subject, but I started watching Ken Burn's documentary on the US and Holocaust (a great documentary if you haven't seen it).

The documentary does a great job in showing the rise of Hitler and how he was basically telling the world what he was going to do, before he did it. The Sudetenland, Anschluss, over-running Czechoslovakia and Poland were not surprises for those who were watching the Nazis closely.

Fast forward to today. I can't help but get the feeling that it is 1936 all over again. And like Hitler, Putin is a gambler.

Putin's speech was just missing a reference to 'lebensraum.'

And who the hell is "Ivan Ilyin" anyway?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 30, 2022, 02:11:36 PM
I was thinking the ones who should really be pushed about this are the Chinese
Russia will not be a threat for a generation due to getting their best people and frontline kit getting absolutely wrecked in Ukraine
Finland and Sweden join nato making it stronger and bigger
US military pivot to Asia can accelerate because of the above
Russian kit has been shown to be woefully inferior to the west Much of China is based on Russian architecture
Russian military doctrine proven to be bad. Again conscript army in China
Achieving Air superiority has taken a kick in the balls with drones
The list goes on
Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 30, 2022, 02:17:54 PM
So the yellow and blue country wants quick ascension into NATO and Mr. Burns just told the bear leader that we're going to defend every inch.

Fasten your seatbelts, it's WW3 time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 30, 2022, 02:35:11 PM
Or, this is where things stabilize, with the Donbas now (by fraud election) 'Russia' -- did the Crimea get into that referendum? (somehow I didn't catch that). And the rest of Ukraine now NATO. Putin isn't going to go after NATO territories, or not for a long while now.

Moldova better get its NATO-sponsored 'Partnership for Peace' on the ball, because there's a good chance Russia and Belorussia are going there next time!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 30, 2022, 02:54:40 PM
Moldova is completely surrounded by Romania and Ukraine. I doubt they will allow overflights.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 30, 2022, 03:02:16 PM
Transnitria got some Russian equipment in there somehow.

Edited to add: okay, I thought Transnitria had a port onto the Black Sea, which Russia might take and secure (y'know, by 'referendum' in Transnitria), but it doesn't. Moldova itself alllllmost does, but not quite.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 30, 2022, 03:35:32 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 30, 2022, 03:02:16 PM
Transnitria got some Russian equipment in there somehow.

Edited to add: okay, I thought Transnitria had a port onto the Black Sea, which Russia might take and secure (y'know, by 'referendum' in Transnitria), but it doesn't. Moldova itself alllllmost does, but not quite.

  After Transnitria staged some "incidents" in which they shot an RPG at their own local hq near the non-MacDonalds in downtown Transnitria, they seemed to have decided to lay low.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 30, 2022, 04:19:46 PM
well heres the shitfucks speech:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1575853684852150272.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 30, 2022, 04:51:21 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 30, 2022, 10:14:20 AM
Putin is living in the Matrix, an alternate world from reality. It sort of reminds me of Hitler in his bunker moving around phantom divisions that no longer exist on the map.

Under ordinary circumstances, it would be amusing...but the more the conventional military outlook deteriorates for Russia, the more dangerous the situation actually becomes.

Yeah, I think when given Neo's choice Putin chose the red pill over the blue pill.

The situation certainly gets more unpredictable now.  But I don't know that there was any way we were going to get beyond the current bloody impasse without somebody's military situation deteriorating first.  Given the daily price paid in flesh, blood, and freedom just to maintain the status quo, I'd rather face those next risks--whatever they are--sooner rather than later.

Russia hasn't been making coherent decisions for months now.  It's a little unclear if they ever were.

I wonder how long beleaguered Russians troops in Lyman might hold out without supplies?  Lord knows that the Ukrainian defenders in Melitupol (?) held out for a couple months in that steel plant after they were cut off...

SirAndrew, I'm also a Tom Lehrer fan.  There must be at least one or two others on this board who know and remember his genius and are willing to come forward here.  Who's next?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 30, 2022, 08:53:36 PM
so this is where its roughly at now:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd4xRXKXwAEenDj?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on September 30, 2022, 10:17:07 PM
I really can't see Russia blowing the pipeline as they lose any leverage they had over the Europeans in stopping arms shipments.  I've not heard any postulate it but I'm wondering if the Ukranians might have done it.  No chance of gas from Russia and there is nothing to lose in sending arms to Ukraine.  Not sure they would have the capability but how big a team would it take to pull that off.  Some divers who knew what there were doing and a Liberian or Panamanian flagged old freighter and you could be in business.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 30, 2022, 10:26:44 PM
it was russia and it saved them roughly 40 billion in fees.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 01, 2022, 01:04:08 AM
Herr Putin's speech in full. It is quite something. "Siri, what is grievance?"

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69465
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 01, 2022, 01:15:41 AM
Ukrainian attack on reinforced Russian positions. Use of drones to manage the battlefield, for instance.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1576002705146920962
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 09:18:11 AM
well, so much for Lyman.   <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 01, 2022, 12:21:49 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 09:18:11 AM
well, so much for Lyman.   <:-)

Some master trolling by Ukrainians:

QuoteWe thank the "Ministry of Defense" of 🇷🇺 for successful cooperation in organizing the "Izyum 2.0" exercise. Almost all russian troops deployed to Lyman were successfully redeployed either into body bags or into 🇺🇦 captivity. We have one question for you: Would you like a repeat?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd_wQ7CXkAE331Y?format=jpg&name=small)

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1576248108690079745
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 12:44:44 PM
the humor is strong with the Ukraine!  :bd:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1576215107180236801
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 01, 2022, 01:12:40 PM
^ Literally waltzing their way to the Kremlin!

On a less light note, this purported conversation from the POV of a Ukrainian soldier paints a very grim picture of the Russians' disorderly retreat.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/

QuoteI came away shaking like a leaf, not scared, just wired and sick of killing people. On the way back —— got in a stream and washed off, and vomited his guts out. I was looking at his eyes and he was seeing things way back home.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 03:32:30 PM
Lines are moving fast, and it looks like the UAF is going for the throat and heading to Svatove. 

Seen reports that upwards of 5000 Russians surrendered or were killed/captured.  That'd be their biggest single loss of the war.  It seems like some of the men in Lyman had no idea they were being encircled and retreated right into UAF guns.

Kadryov is openly asking for the use of nukes to salvage the situation.  Losing Svatove would be extremely dangerous for the Russians.  Who knows what kind of forces they have between the Oskil defense line and there.   The UAF now has the chance to begin taking back chunks of Luhansk just a day after Putin annexed it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 06:20:56 PM
someone needs to watch out for open windows.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1576331334317879297
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 07:04:08 PM
Keep seeing and hearing stories from UAF guys on the ground. 

Even more info that the Russian commanders never told their troops the overall situation.

The UAF opened a corridor of death like Desert Storm.  Gave them an avenue of retreat well within weapons fire.

The turkey shoot then began. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 07:21:49 PM
with what Ive seen Im wondering if the UAF has been using the MLRS cluster warheads that weve been giving them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 07:41:54 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 07:21:49 PM
with what Ive seen Im wondering if the UAF has been using the MLRS cluster warheads that weve been giving them.

Sounds like they might've been. 

Just look at some of the NSFW material from the retreat corridor they left open.  It's a freaking charnel house.

The Russian command abandoned their men to die.  The MoD announced they'd had a "Tactical Withdrawal" from Lyman hours before the circle closed and their people on the ground didn't know. 

They left 5000 men in a pocket to be a speedbump.  An utter betrayal of the fighting men by their officers and government.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 01, 2022, 07:58:16 PM
To be honest, I'm starting to wonder if modern Russia is even worse than Nazi Germany and the USSR in terms of cynical disregard for the lives of their fighting men.  I don't recall the Nazis or actual Soviets literally offering up 5,000 soldiers as a sacrificial lamb to the enemy just to buy a day or two of time.  From what I understand, Hitler at least believed the men he sent to die were valiantly fighting a winnable cause, not just slowing them down (even if that's what he was really doing).

Sir Andrew or any other proper historians can feel free to correct me!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 01, 2022, 08:13:22 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 30, 2022, 01:58:16 PM
I am still looking for a full transcript of Putin's annexation speech. But apparently it was rambling list of grievances. The Guardian called it 'more angry taxi driver than world leader.'

Wapo summed it up in seven points:
1. Russia will never give up annexed regions
2. Ukraine must give in.
3. The West is trying to destroy Russia.
4. The United States, not Russia, poses a nuclear threat.
5. 'Anglo-Saxons' sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines.
6. Russia will never recognize LGBT rights.
7. In the words of Ivan Ilyin, Russia's 'destiny is my destiny.'

I guess number 6 is there well...just because.

Not to get too far off the subject, but I started watching Ken Burn's documentary on the US and Holocaust (a great documentary if you haven't seen it).

The documentary does a great job in showing the rise of Hitler and how he was basically telling the world what he was going to do, before he did it. The Sudetenland, Anschluss, over-running Czechoslovakia and Poland were not surprises for those who were watching the Nazis closely.

Fast forward to today. I can't help but get the feeling that it is 1936 all over again. And like Hitler, Putin is a gambler.

Putin's speech was just missing a reference to 'lebensraum.'

And who the hell is "Ivan Ilyin" anyway?

I've been saying this since day 1 of the invasion.  Stopping Putin in Ukraine is like stopping hitler in Czechoslovakia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 08:14:49 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 01, 2022, 07:58:16 PM
To be honest, I'm starting to wonder if modern Russia is even worse than Nazi Germany and the USSR in terms of cynical disregard for the lives of their fighting men.  I don't recall the Nazis or actual Soviets literally offering up 5,000 soldiers as a sacrificial lamb to the enemy just to buy a day or two of time.  From what I understand, Hitler at least believed the men he sent to die were valiantly fighting a winnable cause, not just slowing them down (even if that's what he was really doing).

Sir Andrew or any other proper historians can feel free to correct me!

I don't think you're wrong. 

I need to look more heavily into it, but I know that based on a lot of what Glantz wrote on the Russians and the myriad of sources on the Germans...this kind of callous sacrifice wasn't common to either of them. 

There were of course desperate holding actions, No Step Back orders, Hitler's at times insane no retreat orders.  The entire Stalingrad campaign could've massively been easier for Germany if Hitler had simply let Paulus fall back.

They did leave formations to be exposed and overrun.  Both the Russians and Germans. 

The Germans could've even fallen back against the Western Allies in Cobra and avoided Falaise. 

Still, there wasn't this utter disregard and abandonment of the front line.  Both Russians and Germans were trying to preserve combat power when they could.  The Germans were usually worse than Russians in abandoning men and potential combat power by ordering men to stay in place when the situation was untenable. They of course would make sacrifices, but this seems to me different. 

This is them just cutting off 5000 troops, some of them in high quality formations like the Kuban Regiment.   

I saw videos about some of the garrisons in Lyman where Russian troops showed the squalor they were living in, and asked openly "Where are my officers?  No one here has seen an officer in days?  We don't even have a guard on the door.  We're in here alone".

I don't think the Russians or Germans ever abandoned their men to that extent, at least I haven't read the equivalent. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 08:26:10 PM
Quote from: Skoop on October 01, 2022, 08:13:22 PM
I've been saying this since day 1 of the invasion.  Stopping Putin in Ukraine is like stopping hitler in Czechoslovakia.

Generally that has been my thought.

Appeasing Putin will embolden him.  His ambitions aren't limited to Ukraine. 

He's said he considers the Baltic States Russia.  He considers Moldova Russia. 

He has ambitions in Finland.  Poland's not off the table.

Thinking that you can just let him have Ukraine and he'll be satisfied and say "Oh, the Baltics are in NATO and I'll respect the red line even though they showed weakness" is folly.

Peace in our time typically isn't.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 01, 2022, 08:41:40 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 08:14:49 PM
I don't think you're wrong. 

I need to look more heavily into it, but I know that based on a lot of what Glantz wrote on the Russians and the myriad of sources on the Germans...this kind of callous sacrifice wasn't common to either of them. 

There were of course desperate holding actions, No Step Back orders, Hitler's at times insane no retreat orders.  The entire Stalingrad campaign could've massively been easier for Germany if Hitler had simply let Paulus fall back.

They did leave formations to be exposed and overrun.  Both the Russians and Germans. 

The Germans could've even fallen back against the Western Allies in Cobra and avoided Falaise. 

Still, there wasn't this utter disregard and abandonment of the front line.  Both Russians and Germans were trying to preserve combat power when they could.  The Germans were usually worse than Russians in abandoning men and potential combat power by ordering men to stay in place when the situation was untenable. They of course would make sacrifices, but this seems to me different. 

This is them just cutting off 5000 troops, some of them in high quality formations like the Kuban Regiment.   

I saw videos about some of the garrisons in Lyman where Russian troops showed the squalor they were living in, and asked openly "Where are my officers?  No one here has seen an officer in days?  We don't even have a guard on the door.  We're in here alone".

I don't think the Russians or Germans ever abandoned their men to that extent, at least I haven't read the equivalent.

This is the exact impression I got as well.  This just feels cynical and callous beyond anything I've read about WWII.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 08:45:36 PM
QuoteJust look at some of the NSFW material from the retreat corridor they left open.  It's a freaking charnel house.

yes it is, and the lack of massive craters is whats shaping my opinion of the missiles used.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 01, 2022, 08:48:09 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 08:14:49 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 01, 2022, 07:58:16 PM
To be honest, I'm starting to wonder if modern Russia is even worse than Nazi Germany and the USSR in terms of cynical disregard for the lives of their fighting men.  I don't recall the Nazis or actual Soviets literally offering up 5,000 soldiers as a sacrificial lamb to the enemy just to buy a day or two of time.  From what I understand, Hitler at least believed the men he sent to die were valiantly fighting a winnable cause, not just slowing them down (even if that's what he was really doing).

Sir Andrew or any other proper historians can feel free to correct me!

I don't think you're wrong. 

I need to look more heavily into it, but I know that based on a lot of what Glantz wrote on the Russians and the myriad of sources on the Germans...this kind of callous sacrifice wasn't common to either of them. 

There were of course desperate holding actions, No Step Back orders, Hitler's at times insane no retreat orders.  The entire Stalingrad campaign could've massively been easier for Germany if Hitler had simply let Paulus fall back.

They did leave formations to be exposed and overrun.  Both the Russians and Germans. 

The Germans could've even fallen back against the Western Allies in Cobra and avoided Falaise. 

Still, there wasn't this utter disregard and abandonment of the front line.  Both Russians and Germans were trying to preserve combat power when they could.  The Germans were usually worse than Russians in abandoning men and potential combat power by ordering men to stay in place when the situation was untenable. They of course would make sacrifices, but this seems to me different. 

This is them just cutting off 5000 troops, some of them in high quality formations like the Kuban Regiment.   

I saw videos about some of the garrisons in Lyman where Russian troops showed the squalor they were living in, and asked openly "Where are my officers?  No one here has seen an officer in days?  We don't even have a guard on the door.  We're in here alone".

I don't think the Russians or Germans ever abandoned their men to that extent, at least I haven't read the equivalent.

Sorry if this is spammy but this post deserves to be bumped into the next page, because I've noticed an awful lot of users not reading beyond the latest page of posts.

I have to admit that after this whole thread, this might be the most sickening thing.  Abuse of civilians is disgusting but it was at least expected.  This callous disregard for human life is on another level.  I'm starting to feel like I need to take a break from the news because I know this conflict and the human cost is far, far from over.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 09:03:11 PM
I think the difference here in callousness is how little support the fighting man had on the ground.

When the Germans made their huge, idiotic no retreat mistakes that ended up costing them entire armies, the men and officers on the ground at least knew the order.  In some cases they'd circumvent the letter and preserve some of their troops. 

It was an element of Hitler's inability to understand grand strategy.  He gave a no retreat order when Barbarossa failed and it possibly saved a broad front collapse of the German Army.  After that he considered it a swiss army knife to fix any situation where a withdrawal to better positions would be preferable. 

In those cases the German Army had the efficitve Jr. Officer and NCO corps to do it.  They had functional command at the regimental and above.  Their men knew what was asked of them and performed.  They surrendered when it became untenable, usually when their Corps/Army commanders saw the writing on the wall and did it. 

The Russians lost huge numbers in pockets early in the war simply because they didn't have the command or control to stop the bleeding.  They didn't have the officers, they didn't have communication. 

The thing here is simple to me.

The Russians knew three weeks ago Lyman was not a good line to hold.  They had an opportunity to use the Oskil to fall back, carefully to Svatove.  They could have developed a defense in depth and worked to pivot their line and keep their men from being exposed. 

They didn't even TRY to save them.  They didn't have to let Lyman get surrounded.  It wasn't necessary for them to even try to hold it let alone pour more troops there.

And then they by all indications left their men there with...as I've pointed out before...no direction by Jr Officers or NCO's.  They were just there, no idea about the general tactical situation, isolated with limited supply and ammo.

Total abandonment from...ineptitude?  That's all I can see.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 01, 2022, 09:16:44 PM
They say never to assume malice when stupidity is a perfectly reasonable explanation, but in this situation it's extremely hard to tell the difference.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 09:36:09 PM
unlike WW2 the russians have no depth, no lend lease and no time to sort their shit out.
Im getting more 1917 feelings from the reported russian public media.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 09:39:36 PM
Newest update...

The line around Lyman has cracked.  No house to house in the city.  It's done.

The UAF now is advancing along two axes to Svatove.  Borova is cut off, the Oskil line is finished.

There's little to no indication that with the fall of Lyman that the Russians actually have any coherent formations defending Svatove, and potentially behind that Starbolisk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 01, 2022, 09:45:35 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 09:03:11 PM
Total abandonment from...ineptitude?  That's all I can see.

Don't know if it is abandonment or not, but certainly panic and breakdown of command. It looks to me just about every panicked rout since Marathon. 

The Union Army broke and ran during the First Battle of Winchester in May, 1862. During the rout, Union General Nathanial Banks yelled at one of his running men; "My God man, don't you love your country?." "Yes sir," the soldier replied, "and I am trying to get back to it as fast as I can."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 09:50:39 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on October 01, 2022, 09:45:35 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2022, 09:03:11 PM
Total abandonment from...ineptitude?  That's all I can see.

Don't know if it is abandonment or not, but certainly panic and breakdown of command. It looks to me just about every panicked rout since Marathon. 

The Union Army broke and ran during the First Battle of Winchester in May, 1862. During the rout, Union General Nathanial Banks yelled at one of his running men; "My God man, don't you love your country?." "Yes sir," the soldier replied, "and I am trying to get back to it as fast as I can."

I don't disagree but the issue here is, Lyman was untenable for weeks. 

We're all grogs, we could read a map and see where the line had a really hard to hold spur and how they could've and probably should've used the two weeks delay to begin to phase a withdrawal to better positions and defend more in depth.

It's not what happened this weekend.  It's what happened for the two weeks prior.  It's the troops on the ground who saw their officers disappear and who, a few posted on twitter and asked "WTF is going on?  Where are our officers, what's even happening?"

Kind of telling in a social media war where we see that happen live. 

I'm not unhappy the Russians got crushed....again.  But I am surprised at how total this collapse was when their men on the ground just seemed to have no info or idea about what was happening around them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 11:43:43 PM
its actually a worse 1941 army.
and thats saying lot!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 11:53:14 PM
things are afoot!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1576410989104627712
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 02, 2022, 12:28:54 AM
I'm not disagreeing with anything so much as just stating:  Given the fog of war, and the ease with which misinformation and disinformation circulate on the internet, I'm a little puzzled at how confident some of you seem about what's been happening in the last 36 hours.  I'm not saying you're wrong.  I'm just puzzled about how much concrete info we have outside of the capture of Lyman and the predictable "It's a bloody f***ing route for the Russians who were left there".

Andrew, I'm curious that you say what you're seeing right now is worse than what the world saw on the Eastern Front in WW II.  Can we even draw conclusions about that based on what we're hearing and seeing right now?  Or is this one of those situations where you can tell me but then you'd have to kill me?

I did have a Top Secret security clearance decades ago.  The biggest proof I have of that is my notice received seven or eight years ago from the US Office of Personnel Management that the Chinese stole a whole bunch of personal info about me collected when I was 23....   ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 02, 2022, 12:40:23 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 02, 2022, 12:28:54 AM
Andrew, I'm curious that you say what you're seeing right now is worse than what the world saw on the Eastern Front in WW II.  Can we even draw conclusions about that based on what we're hearing and seeing right now?  Or is this one of those situations where you can tell me but then you'd have to kill me?

It's not worse.  Not even close.

And I don't mention the stuff I know I shouldn't know or am told not to say.  I said waaaay back in this thread I'd stop on that and I'm keeping to it.

What I saw that gave me shocked pause was the lack of support the Russians had in Lyman from their junior and high level command.

This is largely an effect of social media.  I've seen them constantly tweet or facebook and ask directly "What the heck is going on?"

This then got combined with Russian media and one link posted above where a pundit said he was directly ordered not to talk about Lyman.

It's not so much, is this worse than the terrible no retreat pockets in WW2, and more a how can Russian command have abandoned their men so utterly as far as we've been able to see?

Clearly, we're in FOW right now and the picture will get clearer.  The words of the Russian MoD are different from what's being told on social media and what West mobloggers are saying.

I just see a situation where, what I can only describe as Orwellian ineptitude, caused troops being asked to hold a very exposed position lost their officers, their command and control, and finally their lives once an encirclement they didn't even know was happening closed on them.

That seems to be avoidable as they had a logical plan to fall back to stronger positions in a phased, organized way and refused to do it. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 02, 2022, 02:26:52 AM
I know we regularly are caught in the geopolitics of this.

I just want everyone to think about the people there.  Outside Donetsk and Luhansk, the cities, they don't want this.

It's hard to think on what this does to the rest of the world, but don't stop thinking about the people on the ground that if the Russians win this war will endure nationalistic erasure.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on October 02, 2022, 09:44:37 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 09:36:09 PM
unlike WW2 the russians have no depth, no lend lease and no time to sort their shit out.
Im getting more 1917 feelings from the reported russian public media.
and Romania 1989.

Most importantly, Putin has really copped it now.  He definitely won't be able to pull the "No, I am your father." card either.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/entertainment-arts-63107183


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 02, 2022, 11:44:18 AM
I hesitate to get too inspired by the stuff I see on YouTube, because it makes me feel like I'm cheering for one side in a football game and I know that the stakes here are millions of times greater.  But that "Slava Ukraini" video is really powerful.  Thanks for posting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 02, 2022, 12:36:59 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 02, 2022, 11:44:18 AM
I hesitate to get too inspired by the stuff I see on YouTube, because it makes me feel like I'm cheering for one side in a football game and I know that the stakes here are millions of times greater.  But that "Slava Ukraini" video is really powerful.  Thanks for posting.

Yeah,  not a cheering matter when you see a song where someone sincerely asks "Please just stop trying to kill us and let us live our lives". 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2022, 01:00:12 PM
seems some things went down around Kherson this weekend as well.
nothing confirmed yet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2022, 01:34:19 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeE_PLCXoAA7pzW?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb4p5TAWAAIDT7C?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeFDdErXgAAYzm4?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 02, 2022, 02:11:00 PM
That push in the south is interesting and it's right along the axis the Russians are weakest and going down the vulnerable supply lines along the Dniper. 

That is a far bigger threat to the Russian war effort than anything in the north until the UAF reaches Starbolisk. 

Remember to note, the Russians have their best troops in the south.  Kherson is defended by a reinforced Guards division.

They can't lose formations of that quality.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2022, 02:44:46 PM
kicking the russians out of the UNSC:

https://cepa.org/article/expelling-russia-from-the-un-security-council-a-how-to-guide/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2022, 02:46:07 PM
QuoteRemember to note, the Russians have their best troops in the south.  Kherson is defended by a reinforced Guards division.

and theyre also firmly fixed in place as the north collapses.   :bd:
the territory the UAF are taking also puts a few airbases in range of rocket systems.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 02, 2022, 03:25:52 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2022, 02:44:46 PM
kicking the russians out of the UNSC:

https://cepa.org/article/expelling-russia-from-the-un-security-council-a-how-to-guide/

I was discussing just this with a history department buddy this week.

There's precedent for this.  Don't forget Taiwan occupied China's seat on the Security Council until the 70's.

Taiwan still got removed because a vote recognized that they no longer had legitimacy under the charter as the representative for the founding member.

This is the possible out for removing Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 02, 2022, 09:30:45 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2022, 02:46:07 PM
QuoteRemember to note, the Russians have their best troops in the south.  Kherson is defended by a reinforced Guards division.

and theyre also firmly fixed in place as the north collapses.   :bd:
the territory the UAF are taking also puts a few airbases in range of rocket systems.

And naval bases. I recall hearing that the Kilos surged last week?


Re leaving Lyman as a miserable speedbump: remember how that was so weird when we saw it developing, we worried that Putin meant to nuke the area as a show of force or something like that? Glad that hasn't happened! (Yet.)

Over the past few days (while I've been away) I started wondering if Lyman was meant to be a propaganda-loss, so to speak: LOOK YE SONS OF THE MOTHERLAND, LOOK AT THE SLAUGHTER, STAND UP YE SONS AND FIGHT FOR ....um, where was this, Donetsk or, um.... NEVER MIND THIS IS OUR HOME NOW, LOOK AT THE SLAUGHTER!

But the propaganda outlets are at best confused on how much they should even talk about Lyman. So, if that was a sacrifice play to goose defensive morale, the plan got signal-crossed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2022, 10:06:00 PM
it wasnt that, it was another clusterfuck of russian command.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 02, 2022, 10:48:35 PM
Yeah, don't assign any 3D chess to what happened in Lyman.

It was the Russians not knowing what to do and failing to do very tactically logical things weeks ago.

There's at least some stories now that the Russians did at least save some of their men there.  A lot of troops did get a retreat order but had to abandon their gear and positions and just run.

Issue now is they're falling back with UAF forces at their heels.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2022, 01:02:29 AM
its like 2.5d chess.  the UAF is getting fed so much information and what amounts to US style backround staff work.  happy for it!
I do love the Kherson, Kherson, Kherson tract with the main punch north and then the Izyum, Izyum, Izyum sucker punch south.
I would go as far as to ask... what the fuck is it with Kharkov counter-offensives. despite all the new found internet map readers the terrain seems suited for it, esp when soviets are defending.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2022, 01:23:40 AM
it could possibly be a very shitty nuclear week.   >:(

I really hope its not.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 03, 2022, 05:50:30 AM
Interesting. Seems the crowd trafficed to Red Square from state owned enterprises were - wait for it - not that interested of holy war against western satanists. It is difficult to tell all the disinformation out there, so just leaving this here. Quite a difference between the actual TV signal vs the alleged videos from the crowd itself.

QuoteUnedited footage from Putin's recent war rally in Moscow appears to show complete indifference among the captive crowd of bussed-in state workers. It seems propagandists added cheers and chants in the editing room. Is anything in Russia not faked?

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1576866894560169985

edit: glad to see this, that is. It seemed so bizarre there'd be a crowd cheering a holy war against the Western democracies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 03, 2022, 07:17:28 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2022, 01:02:29 AM
its like 2.5d chess.  the UAF is getting fed so much information and what amounts to US style backround staff work.  happy for it!
I do love the Kherson, Kherson, Kherson tract with the main punch north and then the Izyum, Izyum, Izyum sucker punch south.
I would go as far as to ask... what the fuck is it with Kharkov counter-offensives. despite all the new found internet map readers the terrain seems suited for it, esp when soviets are defending.

   It's kind of weird that even when no one is trying to deceive them, the Russians manage to trip themselves up.  The Lyman thing is extremely puzzling -- but then, what isn't?  Okay so, i'll try to guess
what the Russians will do next.  The worst choice would be something to "test NATO's resolve"...I mean, before you drop a nuke, what about accidently hitting something say in the Baltic (maybe they already did that and nothing happened but some escaping gas)...its going to have to be a more obvious accident and shooting themselves probably isn't going to be as "provocative" as it used to be.  Shooting something accidently at Turkeyei is almost too obvious.  What about Roumania?  Drone "strays" into NATO airspace and does something?  But would that really "test NATO's resolve?" 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 03, 2022, 07:54:07 AM
You know things are going badly when a Russian region's governor fires his mobilization commissar and sends home half the men mobilized there so far -- because they're obviously ineligible!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/half-of-mobilised-men-in-russian-region-sent-home-commissar-fired-governor/ar-AA12wCML?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=bba8cb939f764add927ce964e8b2af0d

Meanwhile, another southern Crimea military airfield detonates, although this one has a more plausible-sounding explanation: pilot error and/or faulty equipment maintenance/design plus leaving ammo sitting outside next to the takeoff/landing strip:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-military-plane-mysteriously-ignites-in-crimean-air-field/ar-AA12wp6T?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=85cc7d15726f4acaa6c58b007a64a7cb

I mean, it's a plausible sounding explanation by Russian standards!  ^-^
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 03, 2022, 09:50:39 AM
Russian lines NE of Kherson appear to be under significant pressure source : https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeJgS6kXkAMuHqj?format=jpg&name=large)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 03, 2022, 09:55:37 AM
And the Ukrainians are continuing to exploit their gains in the Lyman sector.  Based on this map, the attack in this sector has broadened, likely to continue to press the retreating Russians, and to fix Russian forces so they can not shift to the Kherson sector

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeJeBtbXoAImyFf?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 03, 2022, 02:30:17 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2022, 09:18:11 AM
well, so much for Lyman.   <:-)

When I saw the UAF units involved in the north pincer.... they weren't there for moral support. I am thinking they will keep pushing until they find defensive Orc positions that don't fold with a mild probe.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 03, 2022, 02:39:18 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 02, 2022, 10:48:35 PM
Yeah, don't assign any 3D chess to what happened in Lyman.

It was the Russians not knowing what to do and failing to do very tactically logical things weeks ago.

There's at least some stories now that the Russians did at least save some of their men there.  A lot of troops did get a retreat order but had to abandon their gear and positions and just run.

Issue now is they're falling back with UAF forces at their heels.

I noticed a sudden jump in pics of newly captured equipment... it never means good things for whoever lost it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 03, 2022, 03:01:31 PM
It's never good when the Russian MoD admits to things going badly.

They just announced the UAF have achieved an "Armored Breakthrough" in Dudchany in the south.  That is putting the entire right side of their positions across the Dniper in danger of being cut off.

Again, this didn't happen against Russia's 2nd string.  These may not be the Guards formations in Kherson, but the men around Dudchany are Russian regular army. 

The Russians can't afford to lose those troops.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: planetbrain on October 03, 2022, 04:36:47 PM
It's all part of a Russian Ruse  :uglystupid2:
I hope Russia falls apart and something good results. But that's not how things work in this world, is it?
i.e. The world will end in a worse state than it was pre Feb. 2022
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 03, 2022, 04:46:49 PM
Sadly the instant the Russian tanks rolled over the border we were guaranteed some flavor of nightmare. 

To quote WarGames, "The only winning move was not to play".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2022, 06:30:17 PM
try this Tripoli, helps with the picture size.

(//)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 03, 2022, 07:23:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2022, 06:30:17 PM
try this Tripoli, helps with the picture size.

(//)

You should use a codeblock so people can actually read what you're telling them to use:

[img width=1200][/img]
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 03, 2022, 07:53:24 PM
Interesting item of note today. 

David Petraeus made the rounds today, speaking what was almost certainly language meant to communicate a warning to the Russians via "unofficial" channels. 

That message was, that if Putin does deploy tactical nuclear weapons, the response from NATO could be to commence full scale air operations with the intent of destroying the Russian army in the field in Ukraine. 

He also made it clear that such a response would include Crimea. 

A few CNN pundits echoed the message later.  Some analysis by them was that this chatter was in fact conveying to Russia that a NATO military response is fully an option in response to escalation to nukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 03, 2022, 08:37:44 PM
There is a good analysis of the tactical nuke factor here. Starts at around 48:00...






Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 01:26:11 AM
the copium is strong with this one.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1577127951950192640
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on October 04, 2022, 01:33:31 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 03, 2022, 08:37:44 PM
There is a good analysis of the tactical nuke factor here. Starts at around 48:00...


I love this guy  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 02:42:31 AM
that was a great interview.   :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 04, 2022, 02:43:26 AM
There was a rather interesting discussion on Finnish TV the other day between the former head of military intelligence Gen (ret) Pekka Toveri and one of the very senior diplomats (ret as well) Rene Nyberg, both discussing this quite openly as personal opinions as they emphasized.

One comment was that nuclear deterrence as it has traditionally been considered works very well: western nations have been very cautious in "not escalating" the war any further. Hence, no no-fly zones over western Ukraine, no modern tanks, etc.
As for "tactical" nukes, there was a very interesting comment by Nyberg in that "tactical" vs "strategic" only applies within military, outside military each and every nuclear weapon despite of its size is a strategic weapon, as it involves strategic decision making.
First, he said, there's the absolute taboo of using such a weapon first and foremost. From this point of view Putin's comment that "The US has set a precedent" is quite worrying. Yet, there's the absolute stigma a nation that uses a nuclear weapon would receive. As discussed in above video, it would further put Russia as a pariah state, and, there would be consequences, of course. Military consequences as been communicated to Russia by diplomatic channels I am sure as in the open, economic consequences as discussed in this video as well.

Hence, the use of such a weapon remains "highly unlikely" as discussed here as well.
The further point was then as whether Putin would yet resort to use of such a weapon or not, and if he does, would the military command channel with its various guardrails obey such a command.
I'd assume we're still way off from such a situation. First, the annexation of the four oblasts to Russia, from the point that if those oblasts are now part of Russia indeed, Putin can legally place conscripts there as well. That would go a long way solving the manpower issue, together with the mobilization they are performing.

Finally, as what the effect on Russian society would be as basically so many families should start worrying for their sons dying in a conflict that does really not make any sense to them is a further worry for Putin. I doubt the idea of a imperialist Greater Russia is that attractive but to older generation perhaps, and some hard core minority.
"They really have no good options", Justin Bronk concluded. Easy to agree with that one.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 04, 2022, 07:36:32 AM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-orders-nuclear-military-train-to-ukraine-front-line-tswzv2v50
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-sends-nuclear-military-28146922
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/04/russia-sends-signal-to-west-with-nuclear-maneuvers-a78963

Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send 'signal to the West'

President Putin is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders, Nato is believed to have warned its members.

The Kremlin has been signalling its readiness for a significant escalation as Russia loses ground on the battlefield. Fears over Putin's earlier hints that he might resort to such tactics heightened yesterday with claims that a train operated by the secretive nuclear division was destined for Ukraine.

Poland-based defense analyst Konrad Muzyka said the convoy belongs to a Russian Defense Ministry directorate responsible for "nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport and issuance to units."
Muzyka stressed that the Rybar Telegram channel's video, which it said showed mine-resistant, ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles fitted with turrets, does not appear to show preparations for a "nuclear release."


(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/world-news/2022/10/03/TELEMMGLPICT000311491332_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.jpeg?) (https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/bf4648ddcf59ad25bac81ca3454ef018)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 04, 2022, 09:02:38 AM
Seems a little weird to me that they'd rail a legitimate nuclear-test force through a highly civilian area in the middle of the day -- that isn't the best security for such a movement.

But on the other hand, Russia's gonna russ.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 09:09:23 AM
there are many many threads around about how this isnt the doom find its being reported as.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 09:12:14 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeN78NmXEAIKicY?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2022, 09:37:28 AM
Honestly, the longer that the Russians refused to withdraw those troops to the west of the occupied banks of the Dnieper, the more likely they were to lose them all together.

I think efforts at rational assessment of Russian intentions went out the window about six months ago.  If I were the Russians practicing brinksmanship, I might consider a nuclear test in Russian territory along the Ukrainian border.

Of course, the biggest limiting factor for the Russians might be whether they can justify to their own public the unilateral use of nuclear weapons in a "special military operation" that they are allegedly already winning and conducting only for humanitarian reasons.  I suspect that they'll claim it was a Ukrainian nuke that detonated before the Uks could use it, but it seems to me that the Russian information space is starting to get a lot more complicated.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 04, 2022, 09:49:49 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2022, 09:37:28 AM
Honestly, the longer that the Russians refused to withdraw those troops to the west of the occupied banks of the Dnieper, the more likely they were to lose them all together.

I think efforts at rational assessment of Russian intentions went out the window about six months ago.  If I were the Russians practicing brinksmanship, I might consider a nuclear test in Russian territory along the Ukrainian border.

Of course, the biggest limiting factor for the Russians might be whether they can justify to their own public the unilateral use of nuclear weapons in a "special military operation" that they are allegedly already winning and conducting only for humanitarian reasons.  I suspect that they'll claim it was a Ukrainian nuke that detonated before the Uks could use it, but it seems to me that the Russian information space is starting to get a lot more complicated.

Nukes are the only card the Russians are still holding. They would be fools to play it because once they do, all bets are off.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 04, 2022, 10:06:08 AM
It occurs to me that "a nuclear test" "along the Ukrainian border" either means nuking Russia itself in an area that isn't exactly the Siberian steppes, or else 'testing' a nuke in one of those recently referendum'd oblasts.

Would doing a proper test somewhere remote count as brinksmanship? Unclear. But it would be a lot easier for the Russian government to walk away from.

Another option for 'safe' brinksmanship might be to follow the Nork example yesterday/today, and shoot a ballistic missile over Ukraine to land in international waters. (The Norks just shot one over Japan.)


On a possibly related note, Mom said she saw something on the news yesterday (I've been unable to keep up with news much recently) about Putin moving "his weapons" (she didn't hear "nuclear" which wouldn't seem to make sense) between "his warehouses".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 04, 2022, 10:12:21 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 04, 2022, 09:49:49 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2022, 09:37:28 AM
Honestly, the longer that the Russians refused to withdraw those troops to the west of the occupied banks of the Dnieper, the more likely they were to lose them all together.

I think efforts at rational assessment of Russian intentions went out the window about six months ago.  If I were the Russians practicing brinksmanship, I might consider a nuclear test in Russian territory along the Ukrainian border.

Of course, the biggest limiting factor for the Russians might be whether they can justify to their own public the unilateral use of nuclear weapons in a "special military operation" that they are allegedly already winning and conducting only for humanitarian reasons.  I suspect that they'll claim it was a Ukrainian nuke that detonated before the Uks could use it, but it seems to me that the Russian information space is starting to get a lot more complicated.

Nukes are the only card the Russians are still holding. They would be fools to play it because once they do, all bets are off.

  So far I've been completely wrong about Russians and their cards, but it seems to me they have plenty of cards as soon as they withdraw from Ukraine and start negotiating like a
normal evil regime.

  So, to look at it another way, they might want to avoid the nuke card since it sort of precludes a lot of other cards that (in theory) they could play perfectly well.  Of course, I've been wrong
so far about the Russians -- so who knows?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 04, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Just some food for thought: On Sunday, David Petraeus said:

"The US and its allies would destroy Russia's troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday.

Petraeus said that he had not spoken to national security adviser Jake Sullivan on the likely US response to nuclear escalation from Russia, which administration officials have said has been repeatedly communicated to Moscow.

He told ABC News: "Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a Nato – a collective – effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea."



It is possible the administration is using Petraeus as a non-official spokesman in this incident.  He still has a lot of credibility, and not being part of the administration, he may be useful to the administration in warning Russia.  I am not saying this is the case.  I am saying it is a possibility.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 04, 2022, 11:17:42 AM
Russian troops are being pushed back in the northeast of the Kherson region, Russian military blog Ryba reports. The Russians would retreat towards Nova Kachovka. In this way they try to avoid being surrounded by advancing Ukrainian fighters.

The Ukrainian army says it has recaptured several villages from Russian troops in the south of the country on Tuesday. Ukrainian President Andriy Yermak, chief of staff, reported this on Telegram on Tuesday. Images circulate on social networks of the liberation of the long-fought Davidiv Brid village, and the villages of Veloka Oleksandrivka and Starosillia on the Inhulets River. However, the information could not be independently verified.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 04, 2022, 11:30:14 AM
I was about to wonder whether NATO destroying all Orc forces in "Ukraine" included the referendum'd areas, but then I saw he included the Crimea so I suppose those 'republics' would also be included.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 04, 2022, 11:56:00 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 07, 2022, 09:54:35 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 07, 2022, 07:24:48 AM
^ Your image (currently) doesn't show up for some reason, Cross, so I'm forced to assume it features Russians staring blankly at Korean instructions on what to do with arty shells while HIMARS pick them off one by one in the background.  >:D
Sorry, it worked with a preview but got broken then.

No HIMARS as it was not HIMARS o'clock yet at the time. Instead something to showcase the fickle loyalties of us humans  ::)

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=26039.0;attach=17300;image)
Looks she's back in the game  :nerd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 04, 2022, 12:03:17 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 04, 2022, 11:30:14 AM
I was about to wonder whether NATO destroying all Orc forces in "Ukraine" included the referendum'd areas, but then I saw he included the Crimea so I suppose those 'republics' would also be included.

  The threat is kind of intriguing.  With the Russians all upset about how the Anglo-Saxons have been blasting them kind of obliquely
and how NATO seems to haunt them, the image of NATO actually
letting loose on their surviving stuff would seem pretty well-attuned to speaking directly to Russia's actual fears.  For one thing, if the dribblets of gear that the West has sent to
Ukraine have come close to wiping out whatever the Russians have in Ukraine -- one wonders what orders of magnitude of additional damage NATO's conventional firepower might
do to whatever the Russians still have in Ukraine.  Kind of hard to picture, but if I were a Russian, I think I would be pretty concerned.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 04, 2022, 12:05:54 PM
Take the current target elimination rate and divide the time by, let's say conservatively, six.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 04, 2022, 12:14:27 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on October 04, 2022, 11:17:42 AM
Russian troops are being pushed back in the northeast of the Kherson region, Russian military blog Ryba reports. The Russians would retreat towards Nova Kachovka. In this way they try to avoid being surrounded by advancing Ukrainian fighters.

The Ukrainian army says it has recaptured several villages from Russian troops in the south of the country on Tuesday. Ukrainian President Andriy Yermak, chief of staff, reported this on Telegram on Tuesday. Images circulate on social networks of the liberation of the long-fought Davidiv Brid village, and the villages of Veloka Oleksandrivka and Starosillia on the Inhulets River. However, the information could not be independently verified.

the map according to Chuck Pfarrer. (see Starfury's post above) agrees with https://twitter.com/War_Mapper and  https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-222-summary/ appears to agree, although that could simply be circular reporting.


My uneducated read on this is that (assuming this map is accurate), it appears the Russians realize the danger the Ukrainian advance along the Dneiper at Dudchany presents to their entire position west of the Dneiper, and are pulling back from Davydiv Brid to meet this threat.  According to ttps://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-222-summary/ the Ukrainian troops are non-mechanized, so the advance at Davydiv Brid  is likely due more to the Russian pull back. [assuming these maps are correct].  My read is that the Dudchany prong of the advance is aimed aimed at something bigger: the crossing at Nova Kakhovka to cut off reinforcements from the east.  HOWEVER, there is also a power station at  Dudchany, so possibly that is the limited goal of this prong for now

If I am reading this correctly ( a big assumption) and if this map is accurate (another assumption), look for Ukrainian ops to begin invic Snihurivka, either to pin the Russians, or to advance along a different axis.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 04, 2022, 12:24:54 PM
To the" younger than baby boomer" crowd here: How do I use the (http://) to limit the size of the image?  Is the grammar
"[imX width=1200]http://[/img][imX]http://INSERT IMAGE LOCATION HERE[/img]" or is it something different?  I've tried a couple of different variations, but I can't seem to get it to work. Note I had to alter img to imX to get it to show as text.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 04, 2022, 12:28:19 PM
Suchomimus argues that the 'nuclear' train is heading north, not toward Ukraine:



I'm not where I could listen to his full argument, so I don't know yet how much he goes with the 'nuclear test' conclusion, but he does agree that the "Vistrals" on the train are kitted up for spec-op roving perimeter security ("counter-sabotage") from the 12th Chief Directorate, so are used for escorting "special cargo" of the 12th Directorate -- i.e. the nuclear directorate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 04, 2022, 12:31:06 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeN78NmXEAIKicY?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

I've limited it to 1200 width (and the rest locks proportionately automatically.)

I've posted the code below as the example, Tripoli. As long as you add (leave out the quotes) " width=#" where # equals the pixel target width, and make sure there's a space between "img" and "width", you should be fine.

[img width=1200]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeN78NmXEAIKicY?format=jpg&name=4096x4096[/img]
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 04, 2022, 12:58:22 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 03, 2022, 08:37:44 PM
There is a good analysis of the tactical nuke factor here. Starts at around 48:00...

A 48 minute preable before they actually address the topic of the video???? OMFG! Shoot me now.

Thanks for doing the grunt work and saving me 48 minutes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 04, 2022, 01:00:42 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 01:26:11 AM
the copium is strong with this one.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1577127951950192640

Thanks Star. I now learned another trendy word... google is my friend
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 04, 2022, 01:06:17 PM
Updated situation at Kherson.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FePX5swXwAQAvUg?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2022, 01:35:57 PM
I guess I can no longer say that the Russian Army stands between the People of Ukraine and My Love?   :smitten:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 04, 2022, 01:37:58 PM
Latest info has the Russians retreated south out of Mylove on the road to Kherson.

If you want to get an idea of the terrain, here is the Google street view in Mylove, on the main highway, looking south towards Kherson (2015 picture).

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.0683189,33.6279227,3a,75y,271.45h,76.54t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sgKakcvTwEULYmjv67uvVng!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 (https://www.google.com/maps/@47.0683189,33.6279227,3a,75y,271.45h,76.54t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sgKakcvTwEULYmjv67uvVng!2e0!7i13312!8i6656)

South of Mylove, where the fighting is going on now, it is very open, very flat terrain (some light forest). Not too many places for hull down.

This is approximately where the front line is (was) on Tripoli's map...on the main highway, south of Mylove, looking toward Kherson
https://www.google.com/maps/@47.0094827,33.5746064,3a,75y,214.76h,78.45t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sj5vUZ1Qa_yTWF8qhguT6jw!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3Dj5vUZ1Qa_yTWF8qhguT6jw%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D315.84033%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 (https://www.google.com/maps/@47.0094827,33.5746064,3a,75y,214.76h,78.45t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sj5vUZ1Qa_yTWF8qhguT6jw!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3Dj5vUZ1Qa_yTWF8qhguT6jw%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D315.84033%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 04, 2022, 01:52:33 PM
So, Russia more-or-less confirms they could have hit the pipelines with undersea explosive drones...

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-718938

...though the more important question is whether they can hit coasts with the "Poseidon" undersea nukes.

Since one of the subs (the Belgorod) supposedly carrying such drones just disappeared in the Arctic Sea (not reported in this article, I saw that somewhere else), there's a question now whether they'll test this functionality in the Arctic somewhere as a brinksmanship move.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 04, 2022, 02:09:11 PM
Ya don't say  :uglystupid2:

(https://i.redd.it/1nsoidd58sr91.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 04, 2022, 02:41:49 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 04, 2022, 01:52:33 PM
So, Russia more-or-less confirms they could have hit the pipelines with undersea explosive drones...

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-718938

...though the more important question is whether they can hit coasts with the "Poseidon" undersea nukes.

Since one of the subs (the Belgorod) supposedly carrying such drones just disappeared in the Arctic Sea (not reported in this article, I saw that somewhere else), there's a question now whether they'll test this functionality in the Arctic somewhere as a brinksmanship move.

   Well, I'm puzzled.  Since when is blowing things up "brinkmanship"?...seems a little over the brink to me.  There is a test ban treaty.

   I also don't see what difference a fast torpedo makes.  Still a nuke.  I also don't see how the "set off a nuke somewhere" plan is supposed to work.  Okay so they set off a nuke.  Then what?
Send observation teams to make sure NATO doesn't ship any weapons to Ukraine?  They should just negotiate and skip the nuke.  i don't see what leverage setting off a nuke somewhere gives them.
Everybody on the planet already knows they are well beyond the line of being a totally pathological regime, so what's the additional thing that setting off a nuke gives them?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2022, 03:40:37 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 04, 2022, 02:41:49 PM
i don't see what leverage setting off a nuke somewhere gives them.
Everybody on the planet already knows they are well beyond the line of being a totally pathological regime, so what's the additional thing that setting off a nuke gives them?

An Earth-shattering ka-boom!  Somewhere, deep in the monkey- (or maybe the reptile-)brain, that is crazy satisfying.  And that seems to be how the Russians are making most of their decisions in Ukraine these days.

Thank God we got out of NATO when we did.  They were just a bunch of freeloaders anyway...   ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on October 04, 2022, 03:41:48 PM
^^Well supposedly the Norks fired a missile at Hawaii but in landed in the pacific just past Japan. 
Uncle Sam is also moving tactical ordinance around on trucks throughout the country.  There has been numerous sightings on the internet. 

I'm saying this out of love for you all.  Wake up.

Mainstream media isn't telling everyone a quarter of what's going on.  That's why I absolutely reject it and it's vile agenda. 

You ask what's the additional thing setting off a nuke get's them? 


The whole thing has to be brought down so that Mr. Fixitall can enter the world scene. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 04, 2022, 04:49:45 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on October 04, 2022, 03:41:48 PM


The whole thing has to be brought down so that Mr. Fixitall can enter the world scene.

   I thought Wittgenstein was dead.  Just goes to show you can't trust the media.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 04, 2022, 05:39:33 PM
My read of this map is that the Ukrainians are cutting the northern routes into Kremenna, while pinning Russians in invic Savatov  from attacking the penetrating Ukrainian forces on their flank.  According to https://twitter.com/batholiver/status/1577201628989431808, some Russian mil-bloggers suggest the Russian forces have been ordered to retreat, although I haven't seen any confirmation of that.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeQfCd7UoAEdDTI?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2022, 06:49:41 PM
One way or another, Staroblisk seems to be the major logistical hub that the Ukrainians are aiming for next.  (I'm just channeling Sir Andrew here, honestly) 

If they take that before Winter, consolidating their gains and getting supplies to their front-line armies becomes much easier.  I wonder, at what point would the Russians in Southern Ukraine simply be cut off?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 04, 2022, 06:58:59 PM
Staroblisk would be the big prize.  However, there are other ways to cut the rail lines outside of taking it.  A lot of softer targets to the north.

Still, if they grab Staroblisk they make the entire north part of the front pretty much impossible to hold without the Russians trying to organize some counter invasion back over the border.  If they try that US intel will warn them very heavily in advance as it's already warned them about the new Motor Rifle Division being mustered in Crimea. 

In the south they're already, for all intents and purposes, cut off.  The only supply they get there is by ferry and air, and as they're losing the riverfront, the ferry access is getting less and less tenable. 

They'll want to take Kherson before the winter if they can.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 07:23:55 PM
well the russians are taking this page right out of the nazi playbook.
recovered from one of their torture sites in a liberated town in Donestk.

(https://scontent-mia3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/310056589_10159506924789900_5135003800110120570_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=TzO12aWgB4IAX9KHVc-&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-2.xx&oh=00_AT8CHmxYfB6r6ugiUULyqE5SOwOBicbPhLQRfDVirPDnZA&oe=63428ABC)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 07:32:09 PM
this gif is a fair bit interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1577369014502055937
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 08:11:23 PM
another nuclear article.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/putin-nuclear-weapons-threat-us-sanctions-military/671642/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 04, 2022, 09:42:14 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 07:32:09 PM
this gif is a fair bit interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1577369014502055937

It's certainly off the chain! -- though it's missing some special fireworks (so to speak) which would doubtless be released around the 1 minute mark.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 05, 2022, 06:36:38 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 08:11:23 PM
another nuclear article.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/putin-nuclear-weapons-threat-us-sanctions-military/671642/

  And the sub:

  https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/10/new-images-reveal-russias-missing-submarine-belgorod-in-arctic/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 05, 2022, 07:26:06 AM
Probably deserves its own thread, but considering the Norks (of all people) may be Russia's most (relatively) reliable ally at the moment, the fact that the... um... Sorks(?) screwed up their own retaliatory test launch looks very weak:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/seoul-s-reprisal-blows-up-after-north-korean-missile-success/ar-AA12BowA?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e0f273fabeac421e900d5a49881b7b31

This was a short-range missile, that crashed inside an airforce base (apparently from where it shot off) shortly after launch. The warhead did not explode, only the propellant.

It should be noted that the Sorks say four other similar missiles were successfully shot, among other joint exercises with the US. (The USS Ronald Reagan was involved with join exercises earlier this year, and has been ordered back into nearby waters after NK threw that ballistic missile over Japan.)

I didn't know that North Korea has launched 40 ballistic missiles across 20 tests since Russia invaded back in February.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 05, 2022, 07:36:02 AM
Meanwhile, Step.... where were we, 11? 12?

Step 13: tick off the Chechens enough that they want to team up with the Cossacks against you!



6D Quantum Strategy will soon be Wictory!  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 05, 2022, 08:32:11 AM
According to the "Indications and Warning" twitter feed, there are unconfirmed reports that Russian officers are/have fled their units at Snihurivka.  If true, that strongly indicates the morale of the units there is now really bad, and they will start retreating, especially given the lack of reported lack of Ukrainian strikes along P-81.  The ground support strikes in the Mylove sector and west of Kherson is interesting.  Russian AD must be seriously compromised for this level of air support.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeToSQpXwAgKCJp?format=jpg&name=large)

[Addendum]: There are reports that Snihurivka has been secured by the Ukrainians.  I'm not sure I believe them, but the reports are out there.  If true, the Russian defenses in the Kherson region are completely broken, and the actual city of Kherson is next.  https://twitter.com/wartranslated;  https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia; 
{Addendum 2]: I'm seeing other TINT (Twitter Intelligence) stating that Snihurivka has not fallen, but that fighting is going on in the NW portions of the city.  See https://twitter.com/EdwardWeinert/status/1577668364922658818   That seems more likely to me.  However, I suspect it will fall soon.  My guess is the Ukrainians have not hit the P-81 road to encourage the Russians to begin leaving.  As Snihurivka is reportedly fortified, this makes sense-Giving the Russian troops an exit beats fighting them dug in the city
[Addendum 3]: A little T&A (Twitter Analysis-what did you think I was referring to? ::) )  from MG Mike Ryan (Australian Army) on the DOnbas and Kherson offensives.
  https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1577528519671701504
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 05, 2022, 10:21:40 AM
And an interesting analysis of a possible Ukrainian military strategy moving forward:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11278851/How-Ukraine-achieve-victory-against-Russia-according-experts.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 05, 2022, 10:28:29 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2022, 07:23:55 PM
well the russians are taking this page right out of the nazi playbook.
recovered from one of their torture sites in a liberated town in Donestk.

(https://scontent-mia3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/310056589_10159506924789900_5135003800110120570_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=TzO12aWgB4IAX9KHVc-&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-2.xx&oh=00_AT8CHmxYfB6r6ugiUULyqE5SOwOBicbPhLQRfDVirPDnZA&oe=63428ABC)

This is the ugly face of war. I know of Marines who collected gold teeth from the mouths of Japanese soldiers (both living and dead) in the Pacific theater. So, while I'm not defending the practice, I wouldn't say it is a practice that comes out of the "nazi playbook". It comes out of the playbook of war, which tends to bring out the worst...and the best...of humanity.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on October 05, 2022, 10:29:35 AM
That's disgusting....the lowest possible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 05, 2022, 10:39:55 AM
The Ukes leaving the Orcs an escape route reminds me of the Mongols doing the same tactic so they would run from battle more quickly and then ride-down their enemies after they took flight.  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 05, 2022, 10:57:16 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 05, 2022, 10:28:29 AM
This is the ugly face of war. I know of Marines who collected gold teeth from the mouths of Japanese soldiers (both living and dead) in the Pacific theater. So, while I'm not defending the practice, I wouldn't say it is a practice that comes out of the "nazi playbook". It comes out of the playbook of war, which tends to bring out the worst...and the best...of humanity.

True, but I think Star's point was that the Russian soldiers took these from civilians (too).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2022, 11:26:10 AM
those are ALL from civilians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 05, 2022, 11:34:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2022, 11:26:10 AM
those are ALL from civilians.

I'm not denying that this may be the case, and it may even be probable, but, I mean...how can anyone definitely know such a thing? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 05, 2022, 12:43:09 PM
I forgot to post this last week -- it's the lead media propagandist in Russia (I forget his name but we've seen him before leading roundtables), who looks like he woke up to reality crushing down upon him that morning...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xrmsa7/putins_top_propagandist_is_showing_off_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

...it's kind of hilarious. And sad. But not very sad because he could be drafted instead.  >:D

I'll see if I can get a more recent take from his show almost a whole week later... oh, yeah, here we go, this was posted 8 hours ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xw5yk8/meanwhile_on_russian_state_tv_grim_predictions/

That reddit channel is a gold mine, as I think several people here know already!  :bd: (I wasn't paying sufficient attention earlier, I expect.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 05, 2022, 12:52:57 PM
Quote from: Anguille on October 05, 2022, 10:29:35 AM
That's disgusting....the lowest possible.

Truth, empathy and respect for the enemy... early casualties in any conflict
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 05, 2022, 01:27:23 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 05, 2022, 12:43:09 PM
....
I'll see if I can get a more recent take from his show almost a whole week later... oh, yeah, here we go, this was posted 8 hours ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xw5yk8/meanwhile_on_russian_state_tv_grim_predictions/

That reddit channel is a gold mine, as I think several people here know already!  :bd: (I wasn't paying sufficient attention earlier, I expect.)

I think it is interesting that the Russian field reporter keeps looking up and to the right... especially when the anchor told him to 'give her the truth'... classic liar body language...

They seem to setting the expectation that things 'are not going to be good for the next several months.' Also that they can't just throw the 300k troops into the fight without preparation. They don't have "Baghdad Bob" syndrome.

As a side note, I read somewhere that national media personnel were exempted from conscription because they are considered to be part of a 'critical industry.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2022, 01:32:19 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 05, 2022, 11:34:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2022, 11:26:10 AM
those are ALL from civilians.

I'm not denying that this may be the case, and it may even be probable, but, I mean...how can anyone definitely know such a thing?

gee, I dont know....  mass graves, eye witness accounts from survivors, video footage taken by russians.
your lack of outrage it telling.  which side are you rooting for here?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 05, 2022, 02:09:22 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2022, 01:32:19 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 05, 2022, 11:34:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2022, 11:26:10 AM
those are ALL from civilians.

I'm not denying that this may be the case, and it may even be probable, but, I mean...how can anyone definitely know such a thing?

gee, I dont know....  mass graves, eye witness accounts from survivors, video footage taken by russians.
your lack of outrage it telling.  which side are you rooting for here?

Come on, man, this is just childish bickering.  JH has made it abundantly clear which side he supports on a moral level.  His points are perfectly valid and just because he's not literally crying with rage doesn't mean he's not outraged.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2022, 02:15:06 PM
yes, Im aware.  Im also aware that Im not posting stuff that isnt verified to the best of my ability to verify it.
its not like my google-fu is lacking here.
Im also supposed to play nice with everyone else so of course Im going to yank his chain.  O:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 05, 2022, 02:20:49 PM
For note the teeth were found in Pisky at a torture chamber used to interrogate Ukrainians suspected of feeding information to the UAF and partisans or who might have had knowledge of the people who did so.

Along with the teeth were found implements such as gas masks that were used to force smoke inhalation, quite a few power tools and pliers used for live extractions, graves where the exhumed seem to have been buried alive and other very very less savory stuff.

Details can be found here among other places.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11282161/Russian-torture-chamber-bucket-pulled-teeth-Ukrainian-town.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 05, 2022, 03:36:31 PM
Yeesh.  Thanks for including the article where that picture came from, SirAndrew.

The Russians have been doing a bunch of vile things.  But, in this day and age, where even deep fakes aren't that much work, a simple picture of a bucket of teeth, while grotesque, can't be assumed to be proof that the Russians did it of that the picture even happened in Ukraine, much less in the last 10 years. 

The first casualty of social media was The Truth.  Supplying attribution to particular stories helps to convert heat into light and get us all on the same page as we talk about the facts on the ground in this horrific conflict.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 05, 2022, 11:41:40 PM
NYT is reporting that US intel sources think Ukraine is responsible for the killing of Dugina in August. According to the sources her father was actually the target.

Hmmmmm...

If true, I wonder if it is some payback for all of those Russian attempts to kill Zalensky in the first few weeks of the war.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/05/politics/us-intelligence-ukraine-dugina-assassination/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/05/politics/us-intelligence-ukraine-dugina-assassination/index.html)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 05, 2022, 11:45:25 PM
Why would US intelligence sources leak that information?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on October 06, 2022, 12:08:33 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 05, 2022, 11:45:25 PM
Why would US intelligence sources leak that information?
The working theory is that this is a message to the maybe rogue elements in the Zelensky govt that if they don't toe the line and stay above the board (which includes assassinating Russian govt officials). Then there are ways to influence public opinion and by default future support.  It also puts a leash on future decisions on long range rockets, tanks and potential US planes/training.  Zelensky has to show that he controls his cabinet and is accountable.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 12:38:03 AM
^that seems pretty foolish. Why risk not only escalation, but also a shift in the publicity war, which thus far has practically been unanimous in support of Ukraine. There just seem like better ways to send such a signal without demonstrating that Ukraine too is guilty of war crimes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on October 06, 2022, 01:49:51 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 05, 2022, 11:45:25 PM
Why would US intelligence sources leak that information?
Maybe because, while supporting Ukraine as a victim of the war, the US government wants to be able to supervise peace negociations at the end? To do so, they have to clarify each and everyone's responsabilities. An act of terrorism (like this was the case) cannot be justified. The US supports only the military operations on the ground. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 06, 2022, 02:48:00 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 05, 2022, 02:20:49 PM
For note the teeth were found in Pisky at a torture chamber used to interrogate Ukrainians suspected of feeding information to the UAF and partisans or who might have had knowledge of the people who did so.

Along with the teeth were found implements such as gas masks that were used to force smoke inhalation, quite a few power tools and pliers used for live extractions, graves where the exhumed seem to have been buried alive and other very very less savory stuff.

Details can be found here among other places.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11282161/Russian-torture-chamber-bucket-pulled-teeth-Ukrainian-town.html

https://twitter.com/ronzheimer/status/1577729161460068352

EXCLUSIVE @BILD : We spoke to local dentist Sergey in the village about this horror-photo: ,,The teeth look like the ones from my cabinet, my house was looted by russians. They come from people that I treated all these years. I took these teeth out.

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/ukraine-verbreitete-das-foto-stammen-die-goldzaehne-wirklich-von-folter-opfern-81529562.bild.html

According to the dentist, Russians who looted his house probably stole the crowns because they thought they were real gold, when in fact they are made of stainless steel. The Russians would also have used them to intimidate Ukrainians. "Local residents reported to me that Russians were apparently using this to scare people," Sergey told Bild.

The teeth may have a less sinister provenance than the Ukrainian authorities suggest, but the existence of the torture chamber and torture is confirmed in the village.
Residents told German reporters that they heard cries for help from various buildings in their village.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 06:36:27 AM
^and this is exactly my God damn point. There has been so much misinformation put out there and there are so many questions that need to be asked and answered, but Starfury has good "google-fu" so he can confirm every media report of atrocity with absolute certain authority and for even raising an obvious question, I'm accused of being a Russian sympathizer. This attitude is symptomatic of the true fascism that threatens democracy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 06, 2022, 08:16:36 AM
Now for a little bit of Czech satire...

A petition to annex Kaliningrad. Where do I sign?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/czech-petition-on-annexing-kaliningrad-from-russia-signed-by-thousands/ar-AA12D16Q?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1d76b1f03d8a4237adb5ad106bd0b428 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/czech-petition-on-annexing-kaliningrad-from-russia-signed-by-thousands/ar-AA12D16Q?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1d76b1f03d8a4237adb5ad106bd0b428)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on October 06, 2022, 08:21:37 AM
I think the Prussians would want a say
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 06, 2022, 11:26:53 AM
In the article that AZTank provided, it's an interesting commentary from the Czech MP who Tweeted the joke about it.  He said something along the lines of, "In addition to all the serious stuff, comedy like this can play an important role in changing the way the Russian people see this conflict." 

I'd never thought about comedy as an important form of soft power, but it's actually one of the more effective ones if you can reach your target audience...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 06, 2022, 12:46:00 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 06, 2022, 11:26:53 AM
In the article that AZTank provided, it's an interesting commentary from the Czech MP who Tweeted the joke about it.  He said something along the lines of, "In addition to all the serious stuff, comedy like this can play an important role in changing the way the Russian people see this conflict." 

I'd never thought about comedy as an important form of soft power, but it's actually one of the more effective ones if you can reach your target audience...

Absolutely. I remember an interview with one of the Nuremburg prosecutors (I forget the gentleman's name, but I believe he may even still be alive). He told how he and many of the staff of the trials had German civilian drivers, many of them were recent German military veterans. He said he came out of the building one day and was surprised when he saw the German drivers gathered around, and all laughing with abandon to Spike Jones' "Der Fuhrer's Face" on US Armed Forces Radio.



As far as the Czechs and humor, they are the folks that gave us "The Good Soldier Schweik" (also spelled Svejk) and they have a statue in Prague to Franz Kafka, who wrote a famous satire about a guy who wakes up one day to find he has turned into a giant cockroach.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 01:13:39 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 06:36:27 AM
^and this is exactly my God damn point. There has been so much misinformation put out there and there are so many questions that need to be asked and answered, but Starfury has good "google-fu" so he can confirm every media report of atrocity with absolute certain authority and for even raising an obvious question, I'm accused of being a Russian sympathizer. This attitude is symptomatic of the true fascism that threatens democracy.

well so far the Bild article is seems to be the only contrary opinion with a lot of questions raised.
questions like why would a dentist keep a bucket of teeth, why no last name and why the other 'tools' arent referenced.
theres already an overwhelming burden of proof on russian atrocities  whats to be gained from adding this to the list.
but please... go on about true fascism.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 01:19:04 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 01:13:39 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 06:36:27 AM
^and this is exactly my God damn point. There has been so much misinformation put out there and there are so many questions that need to be asked and answered, but Starfury has good "google-fu" so he can confirm every media report of atrocity with absolute certain authority and for even raising an obvious question, I'm accused of being a Russian sympathizer. This attitude is symptomatic of the true fascism that threatens democracy.

well so far the Bild article is seems to be the only contrary opinion with a lot of questions raised.
questions like why would a dentist keep a bucket of teeth, why no last name and why the other 'tools' arent referenced.
theres already an overwhelming burden of proof on russian atrocities  whats to be gained from adding this to the list.
but please... go on about true fascism.  ::)

I'm being attacked by you for simply asking questions. You're a brainwashed automaton who lashes out like a child at anyone or anything that raises any question about the narrative reported in the media. You think Ukraine is not committing atrocities in this war?  Would you even care if they were? Do you even care about the actual truth?

You should just stick to posting maps, because when you open your mouth and editorialize, you end up looking foolish.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 01:46:31 PM
asking what side your rooting for is hardly an attack. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 02:02:14 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 01:46:31 PM
asking what side your rooting for is hardly an attack.

You have filled this thread with insinuation, innuendo and outright accusation aimed at anyone that doesn't wholeheartedly wish for unfettered death, destruction and nuclear annihilation, because -"Russia".  Likewise, you have derided anyone who has the audacity to question anything that does not absolutely cast everything associated with Russia as utterly wicked, or on the contrary, anything that may be possibly critical of Ukraine. You are literally the only one who has no capacity to think critically or objectively, has no tolerance for questions that seek the truth and who, as a result, has to repeatedly be warned. I'm finished wasting my time and energy on it. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 02:05:27 PM
QuoteYou think Ukraine is not committing atrocities in this war?  Would you even care if they were? Do you even care about the actual truth?

Im sure here and there the AFU is doing things that could be considered atrocities.  the way they're releasing video of prisoners being questioned goes against the Geneva Convention as far as I know.  I'm also sure thats just one facet of whats going on.  I'm also sure only one side has been targeting civilians and their homes.  only one side invaded the other and only one side is the aggressor. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 06, 2022, 02:06:01 PM
Here's the latest on the Kherson axis:


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeY3HIXWYAQAt7s?format=jpg&name=large)


•   Unverified Twitter Intelligence (TINT) from https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1577930442694598657.html  regarding Russian  Kherson supply situation: [Note from Tripoli: the title says it all.  I can't verify this, but with that disclaimer, here goes:
o   "When all pontoon ferries are working (it's hard task to track them all), 🇷🇺 gets about 1/3 of their needed supplies. 🇷🇺 captured near Kherson have lost 10-15kg, have blank eyes, they absolutely don't trust command, can't establish communications for 3 days. Those were contract solders from elite 🇷🇺 units." {Note from Tripoli: the comment about these Russian troops being "elite" may or may not be accurate.  OSINT shows the troops in the Kherson region are regular Russian troops, and there are some airborne in the area.]

•   UK Ministry of Defence  https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1577893589991956480
o   (1/7) Ukraine's Armed Forces started a new phase of offensive operations in Kherson Oblast on 2 October 2022.
o   (2/7) Advancing south, Ukrainian units have pushed the front line forwards by up to an additional 20km, primarily making gains along the east bank of the Inhulets and west bank of the Dnipro, but not yet threatening the main Russian defensive positions.
o   (3/7) Russian forces have typically broken contact and withdrawn. Russian commanders are likely to see the growing threat to the Nova Kakhovka sector as one of their most pressing concerns.
o   (4/7) The damaged river crossing over the Dnipro in this area remains one of the few routes available for them to resupply forces.
o   (5/7) Russia faces a dilemma: withdrawal of combat forces across the Dnipro makes defence of the rest of Kherson Oblast more tenable; but the political imperative will be to remain and defend.
o   (6/7) Russia has committed the majority of its severely undermanned airborne forces, the VDV, to the defence of Kherson.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 06, 2022, 02:09:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 02:05:27 PM
Im sure here and there the AFU is doing things that could be considered atrocities.

I mean, this line of thinking is pretty much exactly what JH is alluding to.  "Here and there" "could be considered atrocities"?  It's a war man, you can absolutely guarantee there are atrocities being committed on both sides, though you're correct in your overall characterization that Russia is the aggressor and committing far, far more atrocious acts - including torture/killing of civilians.

I've seen some fairly graphic videos that depicted Ukrainian soldiers executing Russian POWs earlier in the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on October 06, 2022, 03:07:56 PM
There are even videos recently that show Ukr potential war crimes
War is brutal and degrading and now for the first time instantaneously livestreamed with no context or verification of facts. But at the end of the day the Russians invaded have killed thousands of Ukrainian civilians through deliberate shelling and strikes and are forcibly relocating Ukr children while their media espouses total cleansing the death for Ukr as a sub species.  It hasn't been as clear cut on who the good guys and bad guys are since WW2.
Lastly ask yourself which country would you rather be a POW in.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 06, 2022, 03:21:31 PM
I wonder what tomorrow will bring : Putin turns 70.  A narcissist like him can't let something like this pass without a crazy victory speech.


The Ukrainian counter-offensive of recent weeks has been particularly successful. To the extent that dozens of Russian tanks have fallen intact into the hands of the Ukrainian army. According to some sources, there are even as many as 200 tanks, out of a total of 380 since the start of the war in February. Many of those tanks will soon be used by the Ukrainian military.

However, the captured example of the T-90M Proryv (Russian for "breakthrough") - which was left intact by the Russians because a caterpillar track had failed - was to be shipped abroad for research. It is one of the most advanced vehicles in the Russian arsenal. That research could yield valuable information about Russian technology.

The Russian army is said to have around 100 T-90M tanks, but only a few are said to be on Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin would deliberately want to keep the tanks on hand for a possible escalation of the war into a conflict with NATO countries. The capture of this specimen is therefore seen by many analysts as an outright blunder on the part of the Russians, and a major windfall for the Ukrainians and their Western allies.


Translated from a local article (original source is Business Insider)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on October 06, 2022, 03:40:16 PM
The UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine--formed in March-- found two occurrences of Russian soldiers being ill treated by Ukrainian soldiers. This is contrasted with the significantly higher number of war crimes committed by the Russian army. The Commission's work focused on investigations in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy areas.

"Commission chairperson Erik Møse said that investigators visited 27 towns and settlements and interviewed more than 150 victims and witnesses. They also inspected "sites of destruction, graves, places of detention and torture", as well as remnants of weapons.
"Based on the evidence gathered so far during the Commission's existence, we found out after having carried out the investigations in these four areas just mentioned, we found that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine," he told journalists in Geneva.

That conclusion is in line with findings published earlier this year by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU).
It documented unlawful killings - including summary executions of civilians - in more than 30 settlements in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy regions, by Russian armed forces while they controlled these areas in late February and March."

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1127691 (https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1127691)

It's not hard to comprehend this is a result of a fascist regime invading a sovereign country.


Groggy
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 06, 2022, 04:01:02 PM
The fact that the Russians have been acting like total bastards doesn't mean that we should instinctively put the Ukrainians up on a pedestal.  And throwing labels like "Fascist" around in disagreements on this board just ain't appropriate.  We can scrutinize Ukrainian actions and emerging reports with a critical eye, but not be pro-Russian. 


We kinda learned that lesson with the mujahidin in Afghanistan, I think...   :arr:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on October 06, 2022, 04:19:27 PM
I'll stop throwing around the word "fascist" as soon as Putin falls out of a window.


Groggy
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 06, 2022, 04:24:35 PM
Quote from: GroggyGrognard on October 06, 2022, 04:19:27 PM
I'll stop throwing around the word "fascist" as soon as Putin falls out of a window.
Groggy

Fair enough.  I wasn't directing that comment at you and have tried to clarify my point above.  I was referring to not suggesting that fellow Grog-heads are fascists! 

Putin, IMHO, is fair game.    <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 04:39:59 PM
I really love this guy. Neither left nor right, just inquisitive in a search of the truth.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 06, 2022, 05:10:03 PM
^ Thanks for posting.  I find his vague and clickbaity video titles off-putting, but he's extremely well spoken and, as you said, does an excellent job of simply laying out the facts and not pushing one narrative or the other.  I agree with everything he said.

My concern about Musk's proposal is that it sets a dangerous precedent that any nuclear-armed nation can simply cause wanton death and destruction, and be rewarded for it with a huge chunk of ostensibly stolen land, simply because said nation shouts about how it's gonna nuke everyone.  I am absolutely not saying that nuclear armageddon is preferable to this outcome, but it still worries me.  In my mind, the only thing preventing such a settlement from becoming a Czechoslovakia "This document guarantees peace in our time" situation is the fact that Russia's military is currently in shambles.  But give it 10 or 20 years and they'll be back at it, murdering and torturing some other poor smaller country's people (or heck, even Ukraine again) and threatening to nuke anyone if they lose.... again.

I'm sure you're fully aware of all this of course, and to reiterate I don't think nuclear armageddon is preferable to this situation.

That all said, what I find bizarre and a bit concerning about Musk's tweet is how he refers to Crimea belonging to Ukraine as "Krushchev's Mistake."  I mean, who the hell calls it that except Russians?  I'm not saying his proposal is wrong in any way, but that wording causes me to raise an eyebrow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 05:30:19 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 06, 2022, 05:10:03 PM
^ Thanks for posting.  I find his vague and clickbaity video titles off-putting, but he's extremely well spoken and, as you said, does an excellent job of simply laying out the facts and not pushing one narrative or the other.  I agree with everything he said.

My concern about Musk's proposal is that it sets a dangerous precedent that any nuclear-armed nation can simply cause wanton death and destruction, and be rewarded for it with a huge chunk of ostensibly stolen land, simply because said nation shouts about how it's gonna nuke everyone.  I am absolutely not saying that nuclear armageddon is preferable to this outcome, but it still worries me.  In my mind, the only thing preventing such a settlement from becoming a Czechoslovakia "This document guarantees peace in our time" situation is the fact that Russia's military is currently in shambles.  But give it 10 or 20 years and they'll be back at it, murdering and torturing some other poor smaller country's people (or heck, even Ukraine again) and threatening to nuke anyone if they lose.... again.

I'm sure you're fully aware of all this of course, and to reiterate I don't think nuclear armageddon is preferable to this situation.

That all said, what I find bizarre and a bit concerning about Musk's tweet is how he refers to Crimea belonging to Ukraine as "Krushchev's Mistake."  I mean, who the hell calls it that except Russians?  I'm not saying his proposal is wrong in any way, but that wording causes me to raise an eyebrow.

I agree with your concern over the precedent. However, is the risk of nuclear annihilation a risk that is less worrisome over the consequences of a diplomatic solution that would involve giving up some land to Russia? Like Brand, I'm fine if there are people in the world who are prepared to end civilized life on the planet as we know it as a preferable outcome to Ukraine giving ground. i get it. People are willing to die over different causes. My point is only that asking this question shouldn't be confused with supporting a Russian victory. Rather, it should be viewed as thinking critically and considering all possible outcomes and alternatives.

With respect to Musk's reference on Crimea, perhaps he used that language, in part, to justify a basis for Ukraine to cede the territory and for Russia to retain it? Let's face it, this was the biggest land grab in Europe since WWII, and other than imposing some sanctions that really had little impact, nobody did a thing about it for over 8 years.  Why draw a firm line in the sand on it now?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 06, 2022, 05:35:29 PM
I agree with you 100%, and I think a LOT of people reacted very emotionally to Musk's tweet when he's really being very reasonable.  I think Zelensky himself can get a pass because his message is clearly intended for the Ukrainian audience (or that's what I assume), but Musk seems to be getting a lot of harassment where it's not deserved.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 06:01:51 PM
the Ukrainians seem to have a problem with their dead civilians not being able to vote in Elons scheme.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 06, 2022, 06:07:39 PM
Of course, and rightfully so. Naturally the problem with any post-war vote is that the dead can't speak.  I don't really see how pointing that out is constructive to the debate on whether or not Musk's idea is viable or desirable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 06:12:43 PM
the Ukrainians have already said that Elon's plan is a non-starter for them so whats to debate. 
its their country to defend and take back.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 06:20:23 PM
QuoteWhy draw a firm line in the sand on it now?

why not?  how many times do you not face the bully and stand up for yourself?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 06, 2022, 06:28:50 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 06:20:23 PM
QuoteWhy draw a firm line in the sand on it now?

why not?  how many times do you not face the bully deranged man with one gun fixed at his own head and another fixed at yours and stand up for yourself?

Fixed that for you.  The potential consequences are a lot more than a few bruises and broken bones on the playground.  This situation is more like a madman willing to take your life along with him while shouting, "Try me motherf#!@er, you think I won't!?"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 06:37:53 PM
from all of the volumes of stuff Ive read about nuclear policy my take is that you can't give into nuclear blackmail.  once thats done it opens up so many more problems around the globe.
China has nukes, do we let Tiawan get invaded?
North Korea has nukes, do we let them have a go at South Korea?
India/Pakistan, Israel/Iran.... at what point does the world draw a line?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 06, 2022, 07:21:00 PM
Yep and you may have noticed I echoed that exact point in my initial reply to JH's video O0  The question isn't "will there be consequences of giving concessions to Russia?" but "do those consequences outweigh the potential consequence of backing Russia into a corner, e.g. nuclear annihilation?"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 07:32:10 PM
I would posit that its not a question of backing russian into a corner, its backing putin into a corner.
I think the consequences of giving any concession to russia will ultimately be far worse later then dealing with it now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 06, 2022, 07:37:04 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 07:32:10 PM
I would posit that its not a question of backing russian into a corner, its backing putin into a corner.


I disagree.  The kleptomaniacal war machine we are currently fighting a proxy war against is not the work of one bad individual, and removing the head will not change an overall culture that, by all accounts, seems to agree with the nationalistic sentiment of the war if not its execution.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 06, 2022, 08:09:38 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 06, 2022, 07:37:04 PM
I disagree.  The kleptomaniacal war machine we are currently fighting a proxy war against is not the work of one bad individual, and removing the head will not change an overall culture that, by all accounts, seems to agree with the nationalistic sentiment of the war if not its execution.

Depends on who takes power, but yeah, that's the problem. 

Patrushev would be just as bad if not possibly worse than Putin. 

Medvedev would be Putin with a salt of incompetence.  He touted Musk's proposal today as a good first step towards the legal destruction of Ukraine as its own independent state and used it to say Musk was acknowledging that Ukraine has no right to exist.  Went on to suggest Musk be given a government post in Russia.

Kadryov, well, we've heard the nightmare stories.  He went up a level today as he now has an official rank, he was made a Colonel-General.  It could be the first step to his replacing Shoigu and he would be worlds worse. 

But on the other hand, what would happen if Russia fell into the hands of the "Oligarchs"?  A true Oligarchy would be far more self interested and concerned with their own survival and profits.  They'd be more willing to make a deal if they could wield real power and not fall out of a window the minute one suggests stopping the war.

All of that said, there's a grain of a good idea in what Musk proposes, but any cease fire and peace deal has to be done with Ukraine in the superior military/bargaining position for it to have any chance for a lasting peace that doesn't encourage Russia to move its ambitions elsewhere.

I would think that a compromised version of Musks proposal could read like this..

- Full withdrawal and de-militarization of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
- Establishment of a UN Peacekeeping Force in those areas
- Acknowledgment that all seized territories are legally Ukrainian
- Russia withdrawing the annexation of all territories and giving up all rights and claims to Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts
- A safe zone in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea monitored by the UN for a period of years with Russian and Ukraine jointly working to repair infrastructure and resettle displaced persons
- An eventual referendum in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea acknowledged by the Ukrainian government as legitimate, monitored by the UN to determine independence of those Oblasts along voting lines
- An agreement by Ukraine to not join NATO as a full member in return for a DMZ established at its border.

Now, would any side agree to that?  No, unlikely.  Crimea if left to vote on its own would probably join Russia.  Ukraine has a red line there.  Conversely Donetsk and Luhansk will probably split down geographic lines and the only areas that Russia would likely win would be the areas they controlled during the early days of the Donbas war. 

Would it be a fair agreement? Maybe.  Neither side really gets what it wants.  However Ukraine would be giving the territories the right to decide much the way Canada does regularly with Quebec or the UK with Scotland. 

Long term peace has to be based on the understanding that the Russians and Ukrainians living within the old Ukrainian borders don't want to live with each other, didn't before, and likely will be even less happy with each other after. 

The Donbas war was, although started and pushed by Russia, largely a civil war in Luhansk and Donetsk, hence the extremism and atrocities by both sides.  The Russians that live in the cities and eastern districts aren't going to be as happy when the UAF comes to liberate them as the western districts are now.

Still, all that's just wild educated speculation.  I doubt many cooler heads are going to prevail.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 06, 2022, 08:33:18 PM
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xwlyl9/another_video_of_the_uaf_during_an_assault/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

A longer-than-usual video of a Uk Humvee assault company skidding along through a wet field to overrun a treeline, somewhere on the southwest corner of the front-advance toward Kherson yesterday.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 09:06:37 PM

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25 (https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25)

Just peachy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 09:21:11 PM
on the upside, Fallout 76 is free to play for a bit on steam.   :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 06, 2022, 09:27:16 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 06:37:53 PM
from all of the volumes of stuff Ive read about nuclear policy my take is that you can't give into nuclear blackmail.  once thats done it opens up so many more problems around the globe.
China has nukes, do we let Tiawan get invaded?
North Korea has nukes, do we let them have a go at South Korea?
India/Pakistan, Israel/Iran.... at what point does the world draw a line?

Not only that, but it gives incentive for those who don't have nuclear weapons to get them.  If by having them, other nations give in to you, then suddenly you are punching well above your international affairs weight class. To use your example, if North Korea gets its way because it has nuclear weapons, than South Korea will be foolish not to develop a similar capability right away.  Eventually, this particular game of Jenga will end badly.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2022, 09:57:30 PM
oh what irony that LG would make nukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 06, 2022, 10:21:19 PM
With all the Russian soldiers unwilling to fight for Vlad's new empire, I was wondering the viability of Zelensky forming his own version of the, 'Vlasov's Army' used by the Germans in WWII. I bet a considerable number would be willing to cross the line and fight for Mother Ukraine in exchange for eventual citizenship in Ukraine or the West, or maybe for cold, hard cash. They're already trained after all and the Ukes have plenty of their own equipment to give them. If enough come over, they could at least give the Ukes a reserve force to deploy if needed and if they can't be trusted to fight against their former comrades, then use them to guard the border with Belarus or policemen or something. 

I can see reprisals against their families and probably Ukrainians in Russian custody though so maybe it would have a downside to it as well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on October 07, 2022, 12:24:21 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 09:06:37 PM

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25 (https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25)

Just peachy.

Actually the doomsday clock in 1962 was at 7 minutes. Today it's at 100 seconds. Happy Friday.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on October 07, 2022, 12:26:11 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 06, 2022, 10:21:19 PM
With all the Russian soldiers unwilling to fight for Vlad's new empire, I was wondering the viability of Zelensky forming his own version of the, 'Vlasov's Army' used by the Germans in WWII. I bet a considerable number would be willing to cross the line and fight for Mother Ukraine in exchange for eventual citizenship in Ukraine or the West, or maybe for cold, hard cash. They're already trained after all and the Ukes have plenty of their own equipment to give them. If enough come over, they could at least give the Ukes a reserve force to deploy if needed and if they can't be trusted to fight against their former comrades, then use them to guard the border with Belarus or policemen or something. 

I can see reprisals against their families and probably Ukrainians in Russian custody though so maybe it would have a downside to it as well.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1578148355603333120?s=20&t=gljKwEdElZWIEbM0ZKMHvQ (https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1578148355603333120?s=20&t=gljKwEdElZWIEbM0ZKMHvQ)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on October 07, 2022, 12:42:18 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 06, 2022, 05:10:03 PM
That all said, what I find bizarre and a bit concerning about Musk's tweet is how he refers to Crimea belonging to Ukraine as "Krushchev's Mistake."  I mean, who the hell calls it that except Russians?  I'm not saying his proposal is wrong in any way, but that wording causes me to raise an eyebrow.

Same. Elon is repeating Russia propaganda. And especially with this tweet from his "proposal":

Russia is doing partial mobilization. They go to full war mobilization if Crimea is at risk. Death on both sides will be devastating.

Russia has >3 times population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in total war. If you care about the people of Ukraine, seek peace.


Literal Russian propaganda that echoes the batshit crazy Russian Z channels.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 07, 2022, 01:05:58 AM
while russia has 3 times the population of Ukraine they cant actually mobilize that many people as a ratio for military service.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 07, 2022, 02:28:04 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 06, 2022, 08:09:38 PM

Depends on who takes power, but yeah, that's the problem. 

Patrushev would be just as bad if not possibly worse than Putin. 

Medvedev would be Putin with a salt of incompetence.  He touted Musk's proposal today as a good first step towards the legal destruction of Ukraine as its own independent state and used it to say Musk was acknowledging that Ukraine has no right to exist.  Went on to suggest Musk be given a government post in Russia.

Kadryov, well, we've heard the nightmare stories.  He went up a level today as he now has an official rank, he was made a Colonel-General.  It could be the first step to his replacing Shoigu and he would be worlds worse. 

But on the other hand, what would happen if Russia fell into the hands of the "Oligarchs"?  A true Oligarchy would be far more self interested and concerned with their own survival and profits.  They'd be more willing to make a deal if they could wield real power and not fall out of a window the minute one suggests stopping the war.

All of that said, there's a grain of a good idea in what Musk proposes, but any cease fire and peace deal has to be done with Ukraine in the superior military/bargaining position for it to have any chance for a lasting peace that doesn't encourage Russia to move its ambitions elsewhere.

I would think that a compromised version of Musks proposal could read like this..

- Full withdrawal and de-militarization of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
- Establishment of a UN Peacekeeping Force in those areas
- Acknowledgment that all seized territories are legally Ukrainian
- Russia withdrawing the annexation of all territories and giving up all rights and claims to Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts
- A safe zone in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea monitored by the UN for a period of years with Russian and Ukraine jointly working to repair infrastructure and resettle displaced persons
- An eventual referendum in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea acknowledged by the Ukrainian government as legitimate, monitored by the UN to determine independence of those Oblasts along voting lines
- An agreement by Ukraine to not join NATO as a full member in return for a DMZ established at its border.

Now, would any side agree to that?  No, unlikely.  Crimea if left to vote on its own would probably join Russia.  Ukraine has a red line there.  Conversely Donetsk and Luhansk will probably split down geographic lines and the only areas that Russia would likely win would be the areas they controlled during the early days of the Donbas war. 

Would it be a fair agreement? Maybe.  Neither side really gets what it wants.  However Ukraine would be giving the territories the right to decide much the way Canada does regularly with Quebec or the UK with Scotland. 

Long term peace has to be based on the understanding that the Russians and Ukrainians living within the old Ukrainian borders don't want to live with each other, didn't before, and likely will be even less happy with each other after. 

The Donbas war was, although started and pushed by Russia, largely a civil war in Luhansk and Donetsk, hence the extremism and atrocities by both sides.  The Russians that live in the cities and eastern districts aren't going to be as happy when the UAF comes to liberate them as the western districts are now.

Still, all that's just wild educated speculation.  I doubt many cooler heads are going to prevail.

Musk's taken a lot of flak for his proposal, and deservedly so. As pointed out to him - and to no avail - to begin with all oblasts that are the legitimate Ukraine voted to be part of Ukraine in 1991. I don't know what other votes are needed, and no, regular voting does not provide any justification for that either. When domestic polls take place people vote for domestic issues. If previous government screwed up, do expect the opposition to win the next election.

War in Ukraine is not an ethnic war either, and I do disagree that people within Ukrainian and Russian border areas would have had any beef with each other. I don't agree on the concept of civil war either, evidence points otherwise.

The war in Ukraine is all about Putin's longing for the Russian World, with imperial ambitions. He's meddled in elections way before 2014, used various hybrid weapons to wage economic war, until the land grab of 2014.

See for instance here: https://www.e-ir.info/2020/11/27/russian-military-aggression-or-civil-war-in-ukraine/

Snippet from the article

QuoteRussia's 'full spectrum conflict' began following the Orange Revolution and continued through to 2013. Between 2012–2013, Russia launched a massive trade, intelligence, cyber, and informational operation to pressure Ukrainian leaders to drop EU integration. In the decade prior and in 2014, pro-Russian extremists were given paramilitary training, and Russian intelligence infiltrated Ukrainian security forces, especially in Crimea. With a high level of infiltration, it is unsurprising that Russian intelligence was active on the ground in Ukraine between 2013–2014 during the Euromaidan and after Yanukovych fled Kyiv. 

Russian spetsnaz soldiers intervened in mainland Ukraine from occupied Crimea and, with the assistance of Russian nationalists (imperialists) and political tourists trained in Russia and bussed into Ukraine, transformed protestors into armed insurgents. Pro-Russian Chechen proxies were sent by Kadyrov. Russian information warfare was placed on a war footing. Military equipment was supplied throughout 2014, from June of that year, artillery attacks were taking place from Russia into Ukraine, and Russia invaded Ukraine on Ukrainian Independence Day (24 August).

Taken together, these different aspects of Russian 'full spectrum conflict' constituted Russian intervention from the first day of the 2014 crisis. Western scholars should place greater trust in the Ukrainian public, which has never seen evidence of a 'civil war' in Ukraine.

As a personal observation, Russia's invasion of Ukraine follows the century long (if longer) tradition to establishin a small puppet regime somewhere in a neighbouring country, having that ask Russia to assist them against the alleged aggression of this "legitimate" regime, and then Russian military rolling in. A playbook so classic it should be obvious now, as the "people's republics" are nothing but Russian placed puppet organizations.

I do agree however that there is no easy way out of this war.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 07, 2022, 05:16:19 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 06, 2022, 09:06:37 PM

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25 (https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25)

Just peachy.
I posted a senior diplomats cooment a few pages back where he observed that there in fact are no "tactical" vs "strategic" nukes as use of any nuclear munition is most certainly an ultimate strategic decision. It is a weapon system that you don't use as such.

It works as a deterrence, as can be seen with no Western country can be seen considering becoming a direct party against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It also works as a tool for extortion as Putin's used it in the past as well.

At the same time it is an extortion that no country should allow to take place, as consequences would be dire as observed here as well. So how I read President Biden's comment ...
QuoteBiden added, "We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis." He suggested the threat from Putin is real "because his military is — you might say — significantly underperforming."

... is that he's basically saying here's back at you, Vova. Any use of a nuclear weapon leads to Armageddon, so don't even consider it.

Putin is very much a sane operator while we do not agree with his logic. His bluff is being called.

What a time to be alive. A major war in Europe with nuclear saber rattling, I long thought only in WW3 wargames.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 07, 2022, 07:38:12 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on October 07, 2022, 02:28:04 AM
As a personal observation, Russia's invasion of Ukraine follows the century long (if longer) tradition to establishin a small puppet regime somewhere in a neighbouring country, having that ask Russia to assist them against the alleged aggression of this "legitimate" regime, and then Russian military rolling in. A playbook so classic it should be obvious now, as the "people's republics" are nothing but Russian placed puppet organizations.

Yep! -- the refined version comes from the Soviet theoretician Triandafillov (probably mis-spelled), but the first systematic version seems to be from the Butcher of Blood himself Tukachevsky (following the theories of Lenin and Trotsky). This was why the Red Army was always supposed to be 'counter-attacking' on 'defense': defending the workers and peasants rising up against the property owners in a border state, against the counter-attacks of the property owners. In effect the motto was 'Fake it till you make it!'  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 07, 2022, 08:51:22 AM
Sorry, not impressed with Russel Brand as a serious political commentator. I tried...I really did.

And Musk? I think he just forgot to mention that his proposal would bring "peace for our time."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 07, 2022, 10:07:24 AM
Prepare the smallest violins playing "happy birthday" in a tragically Russian mode!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/on-his-70th-birthday-putin-hoped-to-be-leading-a-resurgent-russian-empire-instead-his-army-is-in-retreat-and-his-enemies-are-united-against-him-like-never-before/ar-AA12HlxW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=0817dbc661de44459107c380448a83b8

(Oddly, MSN didn't provide a direct link to Business Insider this time.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 07, 2022, 11:00:35 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on October 07, 2022, 08:51:22 AM
Sorry, not impressed with Russel Brand as a serious political commentator. I tried...I really did.

And Musk? I think he just forgot to mention that his proposal would bring "peace for our time."

He's not a political commentator. He's a guy with no agenda who asks questions and who is critical of authority and the corporate media. People like him are the last ones in media who are independent and are simply in search of truth. I honestly don't understand how anyone couldn't be impressed by his balance, ability to communicate and genuine commitment to honesty and truth. And this is coming from someone who actually used to find him utterly repugnant.

But, I suppose if you prefer, CNN, MSN, Fox, etc...different strokes, I guess. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 07, 2022, 11:27:38 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 07, 2022, 11:00:35 AM

He's not a political commentator. He's a guy with no agenda who asks questions and who is critical of authority and the corporate media. People like him are the last ones in media who are independent and are simply in search of truth. I honestly don't understand how anyone couldn't be impressed by his balance, ability to communicate and genuine commitment to honesty and truth. And this is coming from someone who actually used to find him utterly repugnant.


This was my impression as well.  The clickbaity video titles definitely give a bad first impression, but he strikes me just as a guy with a YouTube channel and a decent following who is surprisingly good at separating objective fact from emotional reaction.

Also for how much I personally dislike Musk, I don't think the "peace in our time" point is as lost on him as people make it out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 07, 2022, 11:31:53 AM
WarGames and Damnation Alley played back to back unprompted on my random streaming feed last night while I played Terra Invicta. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 07, 2022, 11:38:17 AM
The 21st century "honey trap." 'Teen Uses Dating App to Get Russians to Reveal Their Locations'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/teen-uses-dating-app-to-get-russians-to-reveal-their-positions/ar-AA12HSJ4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=fdd8ffd1d9e84e64a1a931ca2e0b27ee (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/teen-uses-dating-app-to-get-russians-to-reveal-their-positions/ar-AA12HSJ4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=fdd8ffd1d9e84e64a1a931ca2e0b27ee)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 07, 2022, 11:48:45 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 07, 2022, 11:31:53 AM
WarGames and Damnation Alley played back to back unprompted on my random streaming feed last night while I played Terra Invicta.

At least it didn't pull up "We Gotta Get Out of This Place" by the Animals
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 07, 2022, 12:36:07 PM
From a few days ago, but still evocative:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xwm9wm/russian_draftees_exasperated_abandoned_left_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

The Russian 42D quantum chess mobilization strategy continues apace!  >:D

(There's a longer video of this, too, without subtitles. I can't vouch for subtitle accuracy, but they don't seem to be faking their attitudes, especially as they're standing literally on train tracks which is not the safest area in a railyard...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 07, 2022, 12:43:27 PM
What can save the Russian Army now (that they've given up a bunch of T-90s to the Ukrainians  ^-^ )??

How about those super-experimental next-generation Armatas!?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xwq3sv/the_newest_t14_armata_they_say_that_it_was_filmed/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Wait, shouldn't T-14s be older than even the Soviet Union per se...? It sure sounds like it's over 100 years old! Good grief, that thing inspired pity instead of fear, hearing it shriek around on open ground like it had never been oiled in its life...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 07, 2022, 01:18:22 PM
Meanwhile, in what is probably coincidental timing, the US Department of Health and Human Services has released a $290 million purchase of radiation-sickness drugs repurposed from hospital stock. Specifically, the purchase (announced back on October 4th, now released) was made by the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), an agency within the HHS that's tasked with preparing the nation for future disasters and public health emergencies.

It's a normal move for shifting excess hospital stock into national emergency stock, then back into hospital stock or to government agencies for their own useage. The medical stock is managed by Amgen USA, a biotechnology headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California. In its original press release statement about the contract on storing Nplat (the medicine being purchased), Amgen said "Amgen will maintain this supply in vendor-managed inventory. This approach decreases life-cycle management costs for taxpayers because doses that near expiration can be rotated into the commercial market for rapid use prior to expiry and new doses can be added to the government supply."

In this case the HHS is buying the medical stock from Amgen for its daughter-agency ASPR. In a statement on Oct 4th, when the HHS announced the purchase plan, ASPR said, "Repurposing drugs for acute radiation syndrome that also are approved for a commercial indication helps to sustain availability of the product and improves healthcare provider familiarity with the drug."

(The article for this is behind a paywall. I'd quote more of it, but it's mostly background information about what a couple of the drugs do, including Nplat, and how the drugs are managed by the HHS.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 07, 2022, 02:16:32 PM
All these life and death struggles taking place every day, all day. You can mock Putin, talk about the big picture, or the consequences of appeasement or the risk of nuclear war until you're blue in the face. In the meantime, men...Russian, Ukrainian, foreign volunteers...they will all be fighting the same battle for just a little bit more of life. Just one more breath and the hope that they may live to see another sunrise and hold the ones they love.

It's all so God damn tragic.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 02:28:48 PM
Petreus said a nuke in Ukraine would warrant a massive conventional air campaign that would erase the Russian army from the map and sink the Black Sea fleet.  Further nuclear aggression by Russia would warrant further escalation from US and nato.  How is this difficult to support ?  I'm cool with calling Putin's bluff and if it leads to real nuclear war then so be it.  But I'm not living in a world where the Putins can hold us hostage.  If he's going to destroy it for himself and all of us....so be it.  But he's not getting his way, even if it's over my dead body.  That's my resolve.

I don't trust Musk, as he's a business man, and sees the war as bad for his business. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 02:33:27 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 07, 2022, 02:16:32 PM
All these life and death struggles taking place every day, all day. You can mock Putin, talk about the big picture, or the consequences of appeasement or the risk of nuclear war until you're blue in the face. In the meantime, men...Russian, Ukrainian, foreign volunteers...they will all be fighting the same battle for just a little bit more of life. Just one more breath and the hope that they may live to see another sunrise and hold the ones they love.

It's all so God damn tragic.



Like blinken said, Russians can leave Ukraine anytime.  They can stop this at anytime by just walking away.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 07, 2022, 02:48:03 PM
^That is a very ignorant and naive statement to make that is totally detached from reality. Utterly not surprised to hear it come from someone like Blinken, a career bureaucrat whose closest brush with actual danger was hearing his stepfather talk about the Holocaust.

Men are compelled to serve in war often times not by choice and even more often, against their free will. There are obvious consequences for those who would just "get up and walk away". Moreover, once on the frontline, you're fighting for your life and for those of your comrades. It's no longer about Putin or service. It is only about survival.

Yeah...get up and walk way. And accepting nuclear war as a viable option...Both equally unmindful statements. Such bravado!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 03:19:31 PM
So chaimberlain appeasement is the answer for you ?  We tried that with Obama in 2014, and here we are in 2022 dealing with Putin again because we didn't in 2014.  And if we don't now, we'll be dealing with him again when he comes for Poland or Estonia.  The time has come to take Putin down, just be thankful the Ukrainians just want weapons and money to do the job.

I'm not a fan of blinken either, but the statement is still true, Russia is the aggressor.  If the war is so painful for them, then leave.  Ukraine can't, it's their home.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 03:22:58 PM
Lol my fat fingers double posted.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 07, 2022, 03:36:55 PM
Quote from: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 03:19:31 PM
So chaimberlain appeasement is the answer for you ?  We tried that with Obama in 2014, and here we are in 2022 dealing with Putin again because we didn't in 2014.  And if we don't now, we'll be dealing with him again when he comes for Poland or Estonia.  The time has come to take Putin down, just be thankful the Ukrainians just want weapons and money to do the job.

I'm not a fan of blinken either, but the statement is still true, Russia is the aggressor.  If the war is so painful for them, then leave.  Ukraine can't, it's their home.

Chamberlain in 1938 and Russia in 2022 are completely different situations. The stakes are dramatically higher in the modern world; a world with vast nuclear arsenals.  Think about that...75,000,000 - 85,000,000, plus people were killed in WWII and yet today, the stakes are dramatically higher. Thus, I find the comparison grossly inappropriate and shocking how oft-quoted it is.  That is not to say that I am in favor of "appeasement". I am simply in favor of exploring all options, particularly those that would result in a diplomatic solution and end the war as quickly as possible. Nukes or not, the longer the war rages, the greater the suffering and ramifications will be globally on numerous fronts...world economies, hunger and starvation, instability, civil disorder, more authority willingly yielded to governments, more power and influence to the exceptionally wealthy few. I am simply not prepared to say that a diplomatic solution shouldn't be considered with the knowledge that to see this war through to the bitter end could mean global nuclear warfare. I think those who say "so be it" are either being flippant and not serious, or are just completely deranged. Such a mentality is absurd to me...particularly as an American who feels that for too long, the policies of my country have meddled in the affairs of far off nations with little to no domestic benefit or advantage. What I see now is a war that is certainly benefiting some, at the cost to so many more and I am mystified to see that so many seem to be so excited by the prospect of prolonged destruction. Where does such ardent zest in the face of such potentially severe consequence come from?  More importantly, why are those who seek only to propose alternate solutions to a never-ending war, or worse, a war that ends civilized life, so quickly to be silenced or ridiculed? These voices of reason should be heard and respected, not castigated.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 07, 2022, 03:40:20 PM
A pair of Ukrainian T64BM2 tanks taking shots -- but the real reason for the footage is a bit of master-level trolling on the front of the closest tank...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xx5i9m/ukrainian_t64bm2s_firing_during_the_offensive_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

:o :o :DD

Man, the central newsroom propagandists will be running that on a 24 hour loop as evidence!

(It belongs to a 2018 Jeep Renegade registered in the US, btw.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 03:47:35 PM
Not trying to ridicule you.  The chamberlain appeasement example does ring true.  The thought of a horrific Great War is the same as nuclear war today.  At some point the aggressor has to be confronted.  We can't just let Putin show videos of his nukes on trains, and we all cower and fold or throw Ukraine under the bus.

I think the best diplomatic solution I've seen is what Sir Andrew proposed.  That actually seemed pretty fair.

Like Reagan said "peace through strength".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 07, 2022, 03:50:27 PM
Quote from: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 03:47:35 PM
Not trying to ridicule you.  The chamberlain appeasement example does ring true.  The thought of a horrific Great War is the same as nuclear war today.  At some point the aggressor has to be confronted.  We can't just let Putin show videos of his nukes on trains, and we all cower and fold or throw Ukraine under the bus.

I think the best diplomatic solution I've seen is what Sir Andrew proposed.  That actually seemed pretty fair.

Like Reagan said "peace through strength".

Nobody has suggested, of which I am aware, that we "cower and fold". Where are you, and anyone else making the argument against exploring diplomatic solutions, getting this from? There is a vast gulf between considering all diplomatic solutions and bending over to take it up the rear end. This hyperbole is simply way off base.

...and for what its worth, and for the sake of discussion, why not throw Ukraine "under the bus" or at least encourage it to make some concession to end the conflict? What, less than a year ago it was considered one of the most corrupt nations on the planet and yet today its a model of democratic resistance to tyranny? It is striking how quickly a narrative can change.  Nobody wants to consider this though or even ask, "why"?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 04:15:38 PM
I'm referring to the hypothetical plan sir Andrew laid out a few pages back where the UN steps in and creates a dmz to cool things off.  Then maybe talk about where things stand as far is voting or what local people want. 

But simply handing over crimea or Donbas to appease Putin with his off ramp is essentially throwing Ukraine under the bus.

Also, Ukraine has the initiative on the battlefield.  So why not see this play out ?  Let the Ukrainians keep attacking and see where it leads.  Why quake in your boots over nuclear saber rattling when our side is winning ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 07, 2022, 04:27:40 PM
Quote from: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 04:15:38 PM

Also, Ukraine has the initiative on the battlefield.  So why not see this play out ?  Let the Ukrainians keep attacking and see where it leads.  Why quake in your boots over nuclear saber rattling when our side is winning ?

Once again, there you go with the hyperbole. It's not about "quaking in boots". It's about ending human death and suffering. And yes, Ukraine has seized the initiative, which is of course a good thing overall, but the more the conventional military situation deteriorates for Russia, the more dangerous and unpredictable the situation becomes for the rest of the world in terms of escalation. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 07, 2022, 04:37:00 PM
We have to remember that by all accounts, Putin and his cronies are not in a clear or rational state of mind and have not been for some time.  I fully agree in principle that you have to stand up to gangster tactics and meet them with force to prevent them from just continuing shitty behavior in the future.  But it's not entirely clear how self aware Putin is at this point - if he's so deluded that he genuinely thinks Russians are being bullied by the big, bad, meany Ukrainians backed by the bigger, badder, meanier NATO, then pushing him into a corner is liable to "prove" his point (in his own reality) and make him more likely to resort to desperate measures to punish those he feels wronged him.... in this case, that would be literally all of us.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 05:35:41 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 07, 2022, 04:27:40 PM
Quote from: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 04:15:38 PM

Also, Ukraine has the initiative on the battlefield.  So why not see this play out ?  Let the Ukrainians keep attacking and see where it leads.  Why quake in your boots over nuclear saber rattling when our side is winning ?

Once again, there you go with the hyperbole. It's not about "quaking in boots". It's about ending human death and suffering. And yes, Ukraine has seized the initiative, which is of course a good thing overall, but the more the conventional military situation deteriorates for Russia, the more dangerous and unpredictable the situation becomes for the rest of the world in terms of escalation.

Look I get it let's be cautious and make smart moves, but Putin seeming unhinged could very well be part of the saber rattling act along with the nukes.  I just don't see a way out of this that isn't Ukraine reclaiming all it's land including crimea or caving into Putin's unhinged demeanor, that in turn he'll spin for a victory.  Then 5 to 10 years later, he'll be back at it again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 07, 2022, 05:48:03 PM
All I know for certain is that I'm glad as hell I'm not the one who has to make the decisions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 06:42:40 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 07, 2022, 05:48:03 PM
All I know for certain is that I'm glad as hell I'm not the one who has to make the decisions.

True

But don't sell your selves short, great discussion from all sides is what makes this topic so compelling.  Some of the articulation you guys have done in here is far better than some of the politicians making the decisions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 07, 2022, 07:37:44 PM
Quote from: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 06:42:40 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 07, 2022, 05:48:03 PM
All I know for certain is that I'm glad as hell I'm not the one who has to make the decisions.

True

But don't sell your selves short, great discussion from all sides is what makes this topic so compelling.  Some of the articulation you guys have done in here is far better than some of the politicians making the decisions.

True, but honestly...they set the bar VERY low.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 07, 2022, 08:31:18 PM
some corruption indexes for y'all.

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-corrupt-countries

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/corruption-rank

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 07, 2022, 08:34:27 PM
Jarhead, that's because most US politicians stopped trying to solve problems for our country 10 or 15 years ago.  They're all about being (re)elected as a necessary precondition for saving the world.  It's funny how that works, but such is our system when only about 20% of elected officials face viable competition in their own general elections.

I do think exploring diplomatic solutions is certainly a tool that everybody should use.  I've seen not even a hint from Putin that he's taking negotiations seriously or has an ounce of remorse for the way the war is turning against him and his country men.  He is a blatant aggressor, his soldiers seem to be committing far more dramatic humanitarian atrocities, and he continues to engage in behavior that--for the sake of a stable future--we can't afford to give any rewards for. 

Wile I appreciate what Sir Andrew proposes as a likely middle ground, I even find myself bristling at giving Putin that much.  He's acting like a madman with his arsenal of nuclear weapons, but if we do anything that doesn't result in a full Russian withdrawal to their pre-2014 borders, I think we provide too much incentive for others to act exactly the same going forward.  And we give every country that can afford it a strong incentive to get nuclear weapons and start acting crazily.

The ideal long-term solution would be regime change in Russia.  I think trying to enforce unconditional surrender on a nuclear superpower is probably reckless, but I'd much rather the Russian people solve this problem than the rest of the world solve this problem.  It's unclear how much blood has to be shed before the Russians acknowledge that maybe sending troops into Ukraine wasn't such a good idea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 07, 2022, 08:34:39 PM
You made wonder when we last had a president who has been in a war.  I think it was Ford, who as a junior navy officer helped save his carrier during Halsey's Typhoon.   Thank God we had three former military in a row during the heart of the cold War (Truman, Eisenhower,  and Kennedy).  Crap, I forgot HW Bush!
Edit: I was responding to JH.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 07, 2022, 08:43:09 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 07, 2022, 08:34:27 PM
He is a blatant aggressor, his soldiers seem to be committing far more dramatic humanitarian atrocities, and he continues to engage in behavior that--for the sake of a stable future--we can't afford to give any rewards for.
It should be noted that one of reasons Japanese soldiers in WW2 committed so many atrocities was their training contained frequent beatings during training, similar to Russian conscripts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 07, 2022, 08:54:49 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 07, 2022, 04:37:00 PM
We have to remember that by all accounts, Putin and his cronies are not in a clear or rational state of mind and have not been for some time.  I fully agree in principle that you have to stand up to gangster tactics and meet them with force to prevent them from just continuing shitty behavior in the future.  But it's not entirely clear how self aware Putin is at this point - if he's so deluded that he genuinely thinks Russians are being bullied by the big, bad, meany Ukrainians backed by the bigger, badder, meanier NATO, then pushing him into a corner is liable to "prove" his point (in his own reality) and make him more likely to resort to desperate measures to punish those he feels wronged him.... in this case, that would be literally all of us.

  This has sort of been the problem all along -- find a way for Russia to find a constructive way out of this.  The Russian attack on Ukraine has so many weird aspects precisely because
it had no particular motivation except that it looked easy -- just another Belarus.  I think this is the basis for the odd short-hand that Blinken used -- the Russians are propelling this and we
really can't see why, ie, they could just stop and all along if they had stopped sooner they would have been better off -- hence the Blinken's odd statement that they could just leave.  I think
what isn't clear there is the problem of Russia's motivation because that is really what is lacking which is why Blinken's statment sounds so odd.   I think the option of just walking out is a
reflection of the bafflement over what the Russian motivation is because -- well, what is it?  And lacking that people end up saying absurd things like "Oh, and you could just leave."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 07, 2022, 08:59:38 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on October 07, 2022, 08:34:39 PM
You made wonder when we last had a president who has been in a war.  I think it was Ford, who as a junior navy officer helped save his carrier during Halsey's Typhoon.   Thank God we had three former military in a row during the heart of the cold War (Truman, Eisenhower,  and Kennedy).  Crap, I forgot HW Bush!
Edit: I was responding to JH.

LBJ was an observer on a mission over Rabaul (more or less as a publicity stunt) and Wasn't Nixon an Avenger pilot?  Teddy Roosevelt was involved in a war, was were Grant, Garfield and Lew Wallace (who wasn't ever president but did write Ben Hur so you know there's the experience factor there i guess).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 07, 2022, 09:11:19 PM
the Finnish Prime Minister has this to say:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578308226709590017
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 07, 2022, 10:59:58 PM
seems a fuel tanks exploded on the rail portion of the Kerch bridge....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FehLX7mXgAAlUYn?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 11:03:12 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 07, 2022, 09:11:19 PM
the Finnish Prime Minister has this to say:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578308226709590017

Is it me or is sana smoking hot.  Love those feisty powerful women.  Love'n our new soon to be nato ally.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 07, 2022, 11:06:46 PM
oh she is!

Footage taken from the road portion of the  #KerchStrait bridge shows at least two rail cars on fire.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578595172010844161

I see huge problems for russian logistics in the near future.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 07, 2022, 11:08:02 PM
Quote from: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 11:03:12 PM

Is it me or is sana smoking hot.  Love those feisty powerful women.  Love'n our new soon to be nato ally.

This has been a well documented fact for quite some time  O0  In fact, Finnish message boards managed to spread the rumor that she moonlights as a "catgirl" .... Google at your own risk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 07, 2022, 11:11:06 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 07, 2022, 11:08:02 PM
Quote from: Skoop on October 07, 2022, 11:03:12 PM

Is it me or is sana smoking hot.  Love those feisty powerful women.  Love'n our new soon to be nato ally.

This has been a well documented fact for quite some time  O0  In fact, Finnish message boards managed to spread the rumor that she moonlights as a "catgirl" .... Google at your own risk.

Oh...I googled it.  A loooooong time ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 07, 2022, 11:20:34 PM
and the highway span is dropped as well.  :bd:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FehQX3QWAAQckLg?format=jpg&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FehQRXkWIAEOS4l?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 08, 2022, 12:24:31 AM
Yes.  The Kerch bridge is wrecked.

That's a message.  Ukraine will go for Crimea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 08, 2022, 01:15:37 AM
russians claiming vbied.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 08, 2022, 01:20:19 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FehoR8PWYAA5Gyi?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 08, 2022, 01:29:48 AM
supposedly cctv footage.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578632595633758208
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on October 08, 2022, 01:42:34 AM
The problem is that Russia has made it impossible to negotiate. The ceremony and process to annex the 4 regions has been concluded and they won't accept less (has anyone see it?). If they do, Putin and his friends are done because he said these regions and people are now forever with Russia. Maybe we would have had a space for negociation before that but right now, i don't see any political solutions left and this is Putins fault. Either Russia loses the war and Ukraine accepts to keep the borders as they are now. (front line). I don't see the chance for anything like that to happen now unfortunately. It's all a terrible tragedy and so many lifes lost for nothing.

This is how they see it in Moscow:



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 08, 2022, 01:51:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 07, 2022, 09:11:19 PM
the Finnish Prime Minister has this to say:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578308226709590017

Not an official statement perhaps but a good reminder as why we are where we are. Putin could stop this war any day.

She visited Irpin and Bucha in the beginning of the war, so here's another picture of her. She's a mother to a young child so I can only guess what's going through her mind.

(https://apa.az/storage/news/2022/may/26/big/628f4b18354f1628f4b18354f21653558040628f4b18354ef628f4b18354f0.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 08, 2022, 09:22:37 AM
woof woof woof

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 08, 2022, 10:31:16 AM
Another case of careless smoking?  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 08, 2022, 10:34:40 AM
IRT the Kerch bridge: MG (ret) Mick Ryan ADF posted some thoughts on the dropping of the Kerch bridge on his Twitter feed here: https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1578617196661833733   His main points:



1. The amount of explosives needed to drop the bridge are likely too much to be carried by a SOF team [Note: there is some speculation based on some security film that it might have been a kamikaze drone boat.  See https://twitter.com/EdwardWeinert  I'm not sure I buy that explanation, but it is something to consider]

2. "the Ukrainians so far have been excellent at operational design and shaping operations in advance of their advances. This could be part of their design for taking back Crimea in the short term - or part of a deception operation to distract from other areas."

3.  It doesn't stop resupply to Crimea (there are boats and the route through Melitopol), but it makes holding Melitopol even more important for the Russians.

4. "We may see Russian redeployments in the south, which will unveil other weaknesses & opportunities for #Ukraine."

5. The attack "is a massive influence operation win for Ukraine. ... it is a demonstration to Russians, and the rest of the world, that Russia's military cannot protect any of the provinces it recently annexed...., the rush to leave Crimea [by the Russian military will be [increase]. Lack of confidence in Putin and his military will grow."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 08, 2022, 10:44:51 AM
Related to the dropping of the Kerch bridge span, and illustrating the genius of the Ukrainian public affairs team, they put out a video of the burning Kerch Bridge next to Marilyn Monroe singing "Happy Birthday, Mr President" [Putin's Birthday was October 7]  It is a bit of brilliant trolling. I would argue that the overall effect of the Ukrainian PR effort has been a significant strategic force multiplier in the war:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578665161246011392
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on October 08, 2022, 10:44:58 AM
Wondering if they got lucky igniting the fuel cars and melting the railroad bridge or if both the roadway+railroad bridges were targeted...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 08, 2022, 10:51:33 AM
Quote from: steve58 on October 08, 2022, 10:44:58 AM
Wondering if they got lucky igniting the fuel cars and melting the railroad bridge or if both the roadway+railroad bridges were targeted...
My guess is that hitting the one span when the train was on the other wasn't luck.  The only question I have is whether the second span was deliberately targeted, or if the train was ignited by debris.  I can't wrap my mind around the possibility that the Russians parked a loaded fuel train on a critical transportation bottleneck, so I'm assuming the train was moving when it  was hit.  Then again, maybe it is a known parking spot for trains, and the Ukrainians picked the spot to get a secondary effect.

FWIW, recent photos appear to show the train gone, so there may not be as much damage on the rail portion of the bridge.

Addendum: MG Mark Hertling, former commander of the 1AD in Iraq has some reflections on the dropping of this bridge based on his experiences when AQI dropped a span over the Tigris River.  It is worth reading.   See  https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1578745739416510466
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 08, 2022, 11:24:38 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fej2PfrWQAIrvtU?format=jpg&name=small).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 08, 2022, 11:30:51 AM
QuoteFWIW, recent photos appear to show the train gone, so there may not be as much damage on the rail portion of the bridge.

the most recent photos Ive seen show the undamaged rail cars taken away but the roasted stuff still in place.  that fire was going for at least 4 hours, theres going to be some deep structural damage.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 08, 2022, 11:56:49 AM
An article from The Epoch Times this morning. Behind a paywall so I can't link to it, but I'll quote the text. (They don't mind people doing that for promotion sake, as long as attribution is given. Hyperlinks are not included.) I'll snip past portions that are well-known to us already.

Quote{snip} The Russian Investigative Committee said in a statement that the incident killed at least three people, "presumably the passengers of a car that was driving by the truck that exploded on the bridge."

'The bodies of a woman and a man were recovered from the water, their identities are being established," the statement reads, according to Russian state-owned news agency TASS.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was informed about the explosion and he ordered the creation of a government panel to deal with the emergency.

While the bridge undergoes repair, a ferry service will be provided later on Saturday. Crimea's Head Sergey Aksyonov said on Telegram, per TASS: "A ferry service is ready to be launched, it will start operating later today. We will announce a timetable later."

{snip}

The explosion on the Crimean Bridge took place hours after multiple explosions early Saturday hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, which triggered a series of secondary explosions. The city's mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said that the series of explosions were due to missile strikes aimed at the center of the city, which caused fires at one of Kharkiv's medical institutions, as well as a nonresidential building. No reports of casualties were noted.

While no one has yet to explicitly claim public responsibility for the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's aide, Mikhail Podoliak, posted on Twitter saying the explosion is "the beginning."

"Crimea, the bridge, the beginning. Everything illegal must be destroyed, everything stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything occupied by Russia must be expelled," he wrote in English.

Podoliak previously in August threatened the bridge, telling The Guardian that the bridge is "an illegal construction and the main gateway to supply the Russian army in Crimea" and that "such objects should be destroyed."

Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials have also previously stated that Ukraine will use force to retake Crimea.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 after a vast majority of people in Crimea had voted in a referendum in March 2014 to reunite with Russia and secede from Ukraine. The vote took place after anti-Russia, pro-E.U. factions overthrew then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's government, which wasn't against Russia, in an armed coup in February 2014.

The referendum was condemned by the United States and the European Union, with the latter saying in a statement (pdf) that the poll was "illegal and illegitimate." Both the United States and the E.U. issued sanctions in response to the vote.

The Crimean Bridge, a $3.69 billion (230 billion rubles) project, was constructed following the annexation of Crimea. Russia opened the first part of the span to car traffic in May 2018. The parallel bridge for rail traffic opened the following year. Before the bridge's existence, the Crimean Peninsula could only be reached from Russia by sea or air.

It was Russia's only land link to the peninsula until Russian forces later seized more Ukrainian territory on the northern end of the Sea of Azov in heavy fighting, particularly around the city of Mariupol, earlier in 2022.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 08, 2022, 03:20:50 PM
On a more amusing note, the Russians have succeeded in re-creating the "panzer in the lake" joke meme, updated with yet another of their T-90s.



"Oh great T-90 of the lake, what is your wisdom?"


(Replies are invited.  O0 )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: AlanLuiz on October 08, 2022, 03:31:41 PM
Russia is a terrorist state!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on October 08, 2022, 04:36:41 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 08, 2022, 03:20:50 PM
"Oh great T-90 of the lake, what is your wisdom?"
(Replies are invited.  O0 )

Quote from: AlanLuiz on October 08, 2022, 03:31:41 PM
Russia is a terrorist state!

You did ask...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 08, 2022, 04:40:58 PM
^The guy is posting from Ukraine, so maybe he actually means it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 08, 2022, 06:35:00 PM
From Dominions 5 guides to collaborating with and interviewing a retired Army General.  I think it's safe to say Perun has "made it."   O0

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GroggyGrognard on October 08, 2022, 10:59:03 PM
The revolving door continues. Apparently according to the head of Ukraine's military intelligence service, "Surovikin knows how to fight with bombers and missiles — that's what he does."
Military analysts state he has long reputation of corruption and brutality. He looks like a Bond villain. Sounds like a fun guy.

https://twitter.com/FUqwerty/status/1578765337642012672?s=20&t=h1qJo_15Mc0ftIM9p_xHgg (https://twitter.com/FUqwerty/status/1578765337642012672?s=20&t=h1qJo_15Mc0ftIM9p_xHgg)

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1578827404617084929?s=20&t=h1qJo_15Mc0ftIM9p_xHgg (https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1578827404617084929?s=20&t=h1qJo_15Mc0ftIM9p_xHgg)

Groggy


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 09, 2022, 12:07:48 PM
 :DD

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeoG3-HXoAUulCI?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 09, 2022, 12:38:37 PM
Unconfirmed reports from Ukrainian sources of Russian "elite" guards arresting other military members in the Moscow area. Valkyrie? Stalinist Purge? Ukrainian Propaganda? Nuclear 'reliability' test?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-elite-guard-arresting-military-in-moscow-ukraine-intelligence/ar-AA12KgKO?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=53dde45b2b794beda916d594b7e70f5e (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-elite-guard-arresting-military-in-moscow-ukraine-intelligence/ar-AA12KgKO?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=53dde45b2b794beda916d594b7e70f5e)

I tend to think it is just a half-truth wrapped in a rumor. But it would be nice if it meant something bad for Putin. I can daydream can't I?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 09, 2022, 01:29:13 PM
Yes!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on October 09, 2022, 01:48:58 PM
It's more likely to be a purge of officers who's loyalties are 'suspect' due to word, deed, or association.

Still, it might spur yet others to act sooner rather than later out of fear that they too will end up enjoying a stay in the Kremlin's finest and best accessorized subterranean honeymoon suites.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 09, 2022, 02:26:17 PM
The more of the satraps that end up in prison before a people's revolution topples Stalin Putin the better.  I'd rather nobody have to bleed to resolve this situation, but if the Russians seem so intent on spilling blood, I wish a disproportionate share of it would be their's, and it would run in the streets of Moscow and the roads of smaller towns scattered across the countryside, than in the streets of Ukraine.

I know that's not very charitable of me.  At this point, I wish the Ukrainians could find a way to bomb them back into the Stone Age, but without triggering a nuclear response.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 09, 2022, 02:44:13 PM
Have these arrests and lockdowns been independently confirmed anywhere?

I'm seeing Moscow twitter absolutely denying they're seeing anything going on.  That's not all from pro-Putin sources.

Putin just made his remarks on the bridge being a terrorist act and announced the start of a criminal investigation normally without anything seemingly going on, so I'd doubt if there was something happening that it'd be a move against him.

Also, the photo the Ukrainian Intelligence twitter posted in its announcement was from an arrest two years ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 09, 2022, 02:46:53 PM
so what are the chances that this truck bomb was an independent op run by some Muslims from one of the 'stans?
that is, if it was actually the truck bomb and not something else.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 09, 2022, 04:07:07 PM
Even if it was a covert op orchestrated by the Ukrainian government, I still wouldn't own up to it.  Better to have people suspect it's you but not be certain.  And it's better to give the Russian investigative resources the least material to work with.

In a certain sense, it is a terrorist attack.  It's going after a logistical/military target, but there's also a heavy effort here to target civilians hearts and minds.  On the other hand, the Russians kind of gave up the right to complain about that sort of thing when they started indiscriminately shelling civilian targets all over Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 09, 2022, 04:24:18 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 09, 2022, 04:07:07 PM
In a certain sense, it is a terrorist attack.  It's going after a logistical/military target, but there's also a heavy effort here to target civilians hearts and minds. 

Russia needs this bridge to transfer troops and supplies in and out Crimea so this is 100% a military target.  The attack happened during the night so there was almost no civilian traffic.
To me this has nothing in common with a terrorist attack.

The Russian missile attack today on civilian buildings in Zaporizhzhia (part of Russia according to Russian logic !), most probably in retaliation, that is a terrorist attack. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63190844

The BBC's Paul Adams, who was recently in the city, says the buildings struck are not obvious military targets and the attacks seem entirely indiscriminate.

More than 60 civilians are understood to have been killed in and around Zaporizhzhia in the past nine days.

The Ukrainian regional governor in Zaporizhzhia, Oleksandr Starukh, said 12 Russian missiles had partially destroyed a nine-storey building, and levelled five other residential buildings.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 09, 2022, 05:21:56 PM
^Totally agree with the last two posts - the bridge was an absolute military target and really...the Russians are going to whine after 7 months of indiscriminate shelling? Please.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 09, 2022, 05:38:01 PM
Yeah, I've said before, infrastructure is absolutely a valid target. 

If NATO were in this war, I promise you that bridge would not be functional.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 09, 2022, 05:43:01 PM
Slowly but surely Ukraine is ramping up its combat ability towards NATO standards.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 09, 2022, 05:48:53 PM
Good article on the Crimea bridge here, with video:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63192757
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 09, 2022, 06:45:01 PM
I saw that reprisal strike, in the neighborhood of the nuclear plant (!!), going by on a news crawl while watching something else, and I thought I saw something about how the missiles were ANTI-AIR??!

I haven't seen further information along that line, and I'm left trying to decide how plausible that is. (I assume it's possible.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 09, 2022, 09:25:53 PM
Ruskies have been using S-300 missiles for ground attack for a couple months, at least.  They are very low on regular ones.  Heck, they've even used anti ship missiles to attack ground targets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2022, 12:16:58 AM
so heres some trivia.
with the most recent command change, Surovikin is the ninth commander of RU's invasion of Ukraine and few have lasted longer than 30 days.
its good to maintain a coherent chain of command.
while at the same time canning the top two people whos name I cant be bothered to remember.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 10, 2022, 03:24:51 AM
Regional authorities across Ukraine report missile and rocket attacks (From CNN's Tim Lister and Julia Kesaieva)

Authorities in several Ukrainian cities are reporting rocket and missile attacks Monday morning.

In central Dnipropetrovsk, Valentyn Reznichenko, head of the regional military administration, said there had been a "massive rocket attack on the region. There are dead and wounded."

Authorities in northeastern Kharkiv also reported attacks. Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv military administration, said there were explosions in the city.

Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said "initial reports indicate three strikes on Kharkiv."

"The impact was at an energy infrastructure facility. Some areas of the city lost power, there is no water supply," he said.

In the south, Vitalii Kim, head of the Mykolaiv region civil military administration, said Tu-95 bombers had launched waves of missile attacks, with 47 "projectiles" fired. 

Air defenses had shot down three rockets, he said. The Russians were also using Iranian-made attack drones, he added.

Explosions were also reported early Monday in the western city of Lviv and the capital, Kyiv, where at least five people were killed. Casualties were also reported in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia after a Russian missile strike destroyed an apartment block.

A children's playground was among the sites hit by a rocket or missile attack on Ukraine's capital Kyiv on Monday morning.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Anguille on October 10, 2022, 03:26:55 AM
All civilian targets...the Russians have just no honor. Shame on them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 10, 2022, 07:46:16 AM
Retired Major-General Tim Cross, speaking on Times Radio, opined that Russian ordnance handling has been so sloppy, that a truck transporting ammo might have detonated while crossing the bridge:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-under-scrutiny-as-bridge-blast-could-have-been-result-of-military-logistics-error/ar-AA12LDPj?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=0361b199a0944a14b325231b98e982f0

That would still be a freakish coincidence to ignite the oil tankers parked on the bridge, but it does open up some more possibilities of direct sabotage.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 10, 2022, 09:08:10 AM
'Military logistics error.' Oh vey.

A BBC anchor ran for cover in Kiev as Russian missiles were raining down around him live on tv.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 10, 2022, 11:33:32 AM
Is anyone taking the saber rattling from Belarus with anything more than a grain of salt?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2022, 11:53:12 AM
no
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2022, 11:54:47 AM
if anything, their direct involvement might lead to lubi being overthrown by another revolution.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 10, 2022, 12:22:31 PM
I would agree, belorus wants no part of this war.  It would be political suicide.  I think lukashenko sees his fate tied to Putin and he's trying to do something short of war, but it's worthless at this stage.  I've talked to several belos on dcs servers while flying, and none of them want anything to do with an attack on Ukraine.  In fact after Ukraine war is over, look to belorus as the next pro west join nato and the join eu hotspot.  Hell, if we all survive this, it may bring radical change to russia where 20 years from now we're talking about pro west governments in Russia and Russia being part of the EU.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 10, 2022, 12:29:48 PM
I'd love to see that.  My sense is that the reactionary and imperialist elements are much more firmly embedded in Russia than they were in those countries that Russia has occupied (or "befriended" or whatever they're calling it), but one thing they say about Russia is "No matter how much you know about Russia, you're probably going to be surprised by something that happens there soon".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 10, 2022, 12:32:36 PM
If nukes can be averted, Ukraine could very well be like a new wave of democratic vigor spreading through Europe, like the Arab spring 10 years ago.  Women are even rebelling in Iran, Taiwan is claiming to be inspired by Ukraine.....as we all knew this has global reach and possible setting the table for the next century.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 10, 2022, 12:36:47 PM
I clearly remember as I am sure you all do the mid 1990s when there was talk of Russia joining the EU and even NATO. Feels like that was 1000 years ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 10, 2022, 12:46:33 PM
Yeah I remember that as well, it's been brought up a lot this year with the "how did we come to this" discussion.

Also would add, I'd love to see some work go into US domestic politics.  Went to the Reagan library last week to see a limited time WWII exhibit and the most resonating thing for me was walking into the Reagan Presidency section and just seeing the big words "the great communicator".  I feel the bipartisan politics were what truely made Reagan successful and we should really get back to that.  I'd like to see things more purple than red vs blue.

It's tough to sell the world on democracy when our right and left are extremely toxic to each other.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2022, 01:10:31 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 10, 2022, 12:36:47 PM
I clearly remember as I am sure you all do the mid 1990s when there was talk of Russia joining the EU and even NATO. Feels like that was 1000 years ago.

sigh
somewhere up thread I mentioned russian in the EU as the endgame far down the line.
how far, who knows.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 10, 2022, 01:24:58 PM
Imagine how overpowered Russia would be if they would just clean up their act and treat their people right. But that's been true for, gosh, how many centuries now...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2022, 02:36:42 PM
they still wouldnt be overpowering, overpowered of whatever.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2022, 03:40:44 PM
a thread about the bridge strike:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1579511852815781888.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 10, 2022, 03:56:01 PM
Yeah, it's increasingly looking like the bridge bombing may have been a third party.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 10, 2022, 04:32:56 PM
The Russians released security camera footage of what they claim is the bomb truck, being passed through security with only a quick peek in the back. It's quite a big trailer, but would need to be for that level of explosion.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xyoybi/russian_media_shows_footage_of_a_truck_allegedly/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2022, 04:41:24 PM
its interesting to read the first few pages of this thread.

ffs, Andrew was still married.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 10, 2022, 04:44:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2022, 04:41:24 PM
its interesting to read the first few pages of this thread.

ffs, Andrew was still married.

Only because the signed papers were still with the judge.

It was a fun Thanksgiving! 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 10, 2022, 05:03:23 PM
Not to get sentimental, but it's weird to think how many tens of thousands more people were just walking around living their lives with plans for the future and no conception of what laid in store for them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 10, 2022, 07:40:46 PM
The indicative estimates by the UAF for Oct 8th aren't necessarily accurate, of course.

Heck, one of them has been partly walked back by today...  ^-^

(https://i.redd.it/v7qz9xqaxjs91.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2022, 07:55:26 PM
use Oryx for these lists.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 10, 2022, 08:38:30 PM
I know, I just posted it for their trolling about "1 Kerch Bridge" being added to the list by the UAF.

That, and it indicates that the UAF is taking credit for the destruction.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 10, 2022, 08:42:26 PM
I had been poking around trying to get an idea why some people think a boat or something was approaching the bridge at the time of detonation. This guy, "Sub Brief", gives a good idea of what that evidence looks like.



His discussion starts a little after 3:00 mark. Something is definitely nosing under the bridge (behind the truck where it has already passed) at the moment of detonation. Whether that was the source of the detonation, I'm still unclear about.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 11, 2022, 09:26:06 AM
MSN, reporting the Washington Examiner, reporting Reuters and the NY Times and... something something attribution...  ::)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-pour-into-belarus-by-the-trainload/ar-AA12OtwC?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1f7c881f0b2b43c1b45fafd8dd272169

Quote"This won't be just a thousand troops," Lukashenko told his military high command in a recent meeting, announcing the large-scale arrival of Russian troops. "Be ready to receive these people in the near future and place them where necessary, according to our plan," he said, according to the New York Times.

Cattle-cars of Russian troops arriving in White Russia have been confirmed, along with heavy artillery.

This suggests Putin is hoping to draw off Ukrainian offensive forces by staging a(nother) end-run invasion from Belarus, or at least threaten to do so -- I doubt he has the logistics there, either, but on the other hand that hasn't stopped Russia from doing anti-logistical invasions in the recent past!  :P

Luka, as you might expect by now, markets this as a preparation for Ukrainian and even NATO invasion of Belarus, against which he'll "respond" as necessary: very much the Soviet playbook going back as far as Lenin. Watch for some of those arty pieces to sneak across the border to shoot back into Belarus soon, I guess...?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 11, 2022, 10:12:19 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 10, 2022, 08:42:26 PM
His discussion starts a little after 3:00 mark. Something is definitely nosing under the bridge (behind the truck where it has already passed) at the moment of detonation. Whether that was the source of the detonation, I'm still unclear about.

Didn't some drone-boat (Ukrainian?) wash up on the shore of Crimea a short while back?  Given the craftiness of Ukraine so far, I wouldn't put it past them to arm an aquatic drone device (which is, admittedly, kina cool).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 11, 2022, 10:37:56 AM
Or Putin maybe acting to get ahead of Belarus' drifting away from his control. Just a friendly reminder of who wears the pants in the family.

On the issue of Kamikaze Drone Boats, the tech. doesn't surprise me. I'd love to think the Ukes are that smart, or they had good help. But the idea of this kind of weapon getting into the wrong hands scares the pooh outta me.  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 11, 2022, 10:54:47 AM
Yep, it did! It was a cool piece of kit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 11, 2022, 11:03:31 AM
I'm still hearing a lot of chatter that the bridge maybe espionage from inside Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 11, 2022, 12:09:00 PM
Quote from: Skoop on October 11, 2022, 11:03:31 AM
I'm still hearing a lot of chatter that the bridge maybe espionage from inside Russia.

There was one guy on one of the British news outlets, a British ammo expert, who thought it possible that this was an accident. A Russian explosives shipment gone wrong, albeit in a highly improbable and suspicious place. He wasn't pushing the theory hard, but just put it there as a possibility.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 11, 2022, 12:14:05 PM
^Yeah I saw that too. Sounds believable/possible seeing the mess that the Russian military machine really is.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 11, 2022, 12:19:11 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on October 11, 2022, 10:12:19 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 10, 2022, 08:42:26 PM
His discussion starts a little after 3:00 mark. Something is definitely nosing under the bridge (behind the truck where it has already passed) at the moment of detonation. Whether that was the source of the detonation, I'm still unclear about.

Didn't some drone-boat (Ukrainian?) wash up on the shore of Crimea a short while back?  Given the craftiness of Ukraine so far, I wouldn't put it past them to arm an aquatic drone device (which is, admittedly, kina cool).
This may be what you are thinking of?

http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraines-New-Explosive-USV.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 11, 2022, 12:24:24 PM
It looks like the war is almost over thanks to the most brilliant man in the world°   :idiot2:  :tickedoff:.


Musk spoke with Putin and said that Putin was prepared to negotiate, but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Elon Musk talked to Putin before releasing his proposed peace plan — and promised to meet all of Putin's conditions.



https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1579863004946239490

° according to Elon Musk
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 11, 2022, 12:33:18 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on October 11, 2022, 12:19:11 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on October 11, 2022, 10:12:19 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 10, 2022, 08:42:26 PM
His discussion starts a little after 3:00 mark. Something is definitely nosing under the bridge (behind the truck where it has already passed) at the moment of detonation. Whether that was the source of the detonation, I'm still unclear about.

Didn't some drone-boat (Ukrainian?) wash up on the shore of Crimea a short while back?  Given the craftiness of Ukraine so far, I wouldn't put it past them to arm an aquatic drone device (which is, admittedly, kina cool).
This may be what you are thinking of?
http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraines-New-Explosive-USV.html

Yes.  Up the amperage of any TNT onboard, do a simultaneous hit on multiple bents (the vertical bits that are holding up spans (the horizontal bits) on a bridge; long bridge = multiple spans) and get focused hits on where any beams are meeting up at the bents and you've got a compromised structure.  You don't have to collapse the whole thing at once, but knock enough spans out and the bridge is kaput for some time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 11, 2022, 12:40:51 PM
That's what washed up, yep!

It does NOT look like the shape that was coming up under the bridge at the moment of detonation, however: that had a blunt nose. But the same tech could conceivably be used for a larger low-profile barge.

Notably, an under-bridge barge detonation would explain a lot of things (though other explanations are certainly possible so far):

0.) What was that thing nosing under the bridge on the camera, and why haven't we heard of it again?

00.) Why did Russian security pass the truck through to begin with? (It was empty -- although there could be a LOT of explanations for this, including Russian sloppiness and/or orders not to look too closely at cargo. ;) Note that the barge theory doesn't keep this also being true! -- just unrelated to the explosion.)

1.) Why was there chatter about the Russians having captured the driver of the truck? (Because his truck didn't detonate and he survived. Then that sounded weird against their truck detonation theory, so they hushed it up again.)

2.) Why drop a few spans instead of taking down the arch and blocking access to the Sea of Azov? (Because a barge couldn't do that.)

3.) Why are a bunch of sparks from the explosion drifting downwind from off to the side of the bridge, especially for several seconds? (Because most of the barge was not yet under the bridge.)

4.) Why does the explosion look off-center from the lane the truck was in, eastward off the bridge? (Because most of the barge was not yet under the bridge when it detonated.)

5.) Why is practically all the damage substantially behind the light-blue/grey radio-shed landmark which the truck had almost reached? (Because the barge detonated behind the truck.)

6.) Why were only some oil tankers on the train damaged by the blast, and substantially eastward of the gray radio-shed landmark? (Because the barge detonated behind the truck.)

7.) Why does the damage pattern look like a shaped charge going in a wedge kind of upward? (Because most of the barge was below the bridge but not quite under it, and the rest of its explosion effect was across the water in other directions, or below the water.)

8.) Why do the three dropped and dislocated bridge segments look like they were lifted up first? (Because the barge detonated partly under them. However, the section immediately detonated didn't fall at first in any case, as the video footage shows.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 11, 2022, 12:51:12 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 11, 2022, 12:40:51 PM
2.) Why drop a few spans instead of taking down the arch and blocking access to the Sea of Azov? (Because a barge couldn't do that.)

Having seen a few intercoastal bridges (up to a few miles in length at least) who have water traffic pass underneath regularly, the "main channel," span/s are beefier than the spans leading up to them.  Having said that, this bridge is very far from anything that I've ever seen, so time to bow out of any technical talk past this point for me.

p.s. Food for thought:  If Russian construction projects are dealt with as poorly as the military seems to have been (i.e. Sochi Olympics for example), then all bets are off in terms of, well, anything with regards to how sturdily things are built in Russia vs. Western expectations/specifications.  Not saying the bridge engineers are stupid as math is math, but they ain't the ones who built the thing at the end of the day and people can and will fudge as-builts if there are no repercussions and they get paid.  Ergo = bridge get broken easier & earlier than projected design life.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 11, 2022, 12:55:31 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on October 11, 2022, 12:24:24 PM
It looks like the war is almost over thanks to the most brilliant man in the world°   :idiot2:  :tickedoff:.


Musk spoke with Putin and said that Putin was prepared to negotiate, but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Elon Musk talked to Putin before releasing his proposed peace plan — and promised to meet all of Putin's conditions.



https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1579863004946239490

° according to Elon Musk

Putin is prepared to negotiate, but only if Putin gets everything he wants!

But yeah, yikes.  I guess we were right to suspect he was literally repeating Russian propaganda.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 11, 2022, 01:17:58 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 11, 2022, 12:55:31 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on October 11, 2022, 12:24:24 PM
It looks like the war is almost over thanks to the most brilliant man in the world°   :idiot2:  :tickedoff:.


Musk spoke with Putin and said that Putin was prepared to negotiate, but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Elon Musk talked to Putin before releasing his proposed peace plan — and promised to meet all of Putin's conditions.



https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1579863004946239490

° according to Elon Musk

Putin is prepared to negotiate, but only if Putin gets everything he wants!

But yeah, yikes.  I guess we were right to suspect he was literally repeating Russian propaganda.

Musk is denying this claim. According to him, he has spoken with Putin only once, it was 18 months ago and the discussion involved space.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 11, 2022, 01:26:10 PM
^ Interesting, I didn't see that.  I guess "Musk did something bad!" makes for better headlines than "Musk denies having done the bad thing we said he did "  :buck2:

On another note, I quite enjoyed listening to the new Ben Hodges video.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Old TImer on October 11, 2022, 03:58:26 PM

It looks like the war is almost over thanks to the most brilliant man in the world°   :idiot2:  :tickedoff:.


"Musk spoke with Putin and said that Putin was prepared to negotiate, but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Elon Musk talked to Putin before releasing his proposed peace plan — and promised to meet all of Putin's conditions.


https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1579863004946239490

° according to Elon Musk"

Just more evidence that having a shit ton of money doesn't buy you intelligence.  Musk should just stfu.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2022, 04:22:25 PM
yesterday:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fez1a71XEBkn_C6?format=jpg&name=small)

today:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeztvcaXEBcRXdr?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 11, 2022, 04:53:44 PM
Is that a big patch job where the fire in first photo was located?  Really well done.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 11, 2022, 04:53:53 PM
Quote from: gregb41352 on October 11, 2022, 03:58:26 PM

It looks like the war is almost over thanks to the most brilliant man in the world°   :idiot2:  :tickedoff:.


"Musk spoke with Putin and said that Putin was prepared to negotiate, but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Elon Musk talked to Putin before releasing his proposed peace plan — and promised to meet all of Putin's conditions.


https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1579863004946239490

° according to Elon Musk"

Just more evidence that having a shit ton of money doesn't buy you intelligence.  Musk should just stfu.

Once again, Musk has denied this claim.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/elon-musk-denies-report-that-he-talked-to-putin-about-ukraine-war.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/elon-musk-denies-report-that-he-talked-to-putin-about-ukraine-war.html)

Whether true or not, I find it mystifying that so many are so critical of a guy who is proposing a diplomatic solution, for better or for worse, to avoid a possible nuclear war. I'll say it again that I think it is insane that many are outwardly willing to accept nuclear war and global destruction as an outcome preferable to a mediated peace, especially where the world has been led to this brink so blatantly by the military industrial complex and failed, corrupt leadership. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2022, 04:59:22 PM
if the West caves in to russia then what happens when the Iranians or N. Koreans try a similar play?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 11, 2022, 05:09:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2022, 04:59:22 PM
if the West caves in to russia then what happens when the Iranians or N. Koreans try a similar play?

I'm not suggesting the West should simply "cave" to Russia. I'm suggesting that the West should encourage Ukraine to engage in some form of diplomacy with Russia and be prepared to consider some proposal that might at least make some headway toward deescalation. The West has already proven that it will use pawns to fight proxy wars against its enemies by spending billions to fund, train and arm them. The destruction of the Russian conventional military capability would have otherwise been impossible.

North Korea does not have the nuclear capability to end civilized life on the planet. If the Norks raised a credible threat of using a nuclear weapon, I believe this capability could be destroyed conventionally without much risk. The equation is also much different with China, who has vastly different economic interests and is not led by a potentially irrational dictator. The strategic situations in the examples you raise are very different.

Putting all that aside, I am simply talking about having a discussion of peaceful diplomatic solutions and I'm critical of the notion that just talking about such a thing is worthy of attack. That, in my view, is naive madness in the extreme.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: undercovergeek on October 11, 2022, 05:15:35 PM
First step into this - just wanted to ask a question

Does the same 'Ukraine must try to step up to the negotiating table' rhetoric apply if we were talking about Texas or New York annexed by someone?

Step up and cede Texas - it's the right thing to do?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 11, 2022, 05:16:50 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2022, 04:59:22 PM
if the West caves in to russia then what happens when the Iranians or N. Koreans try a similar play?

IMHO, it is China v. Taiwan that is really the war that we may be preventing by the current conflict, but your general point is correct.  There is some circumstantial evidence suggesting that China "green lighted" Russia's invasion.  I believe they did, and that they did so in part to distract the west from their actions in the SCS/Taiwan area, as well as setting (in their mind) a precedent for a war against Taiwan.  The relatively unified western response in support of Ukraine, as well as the shambolic performance of the Russian military and hardware just might be giving them second thoughts.  Now if we would only restocked the gear and munitions we've given Ukraine, as well as increase arms supplies to Taiwan, we just might avoid a war in the Pacific. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 11, 2022, 05:26:56 PM
Quote from: undercovergeek on October 11, 2022, 05:15:35 PM
First step into this - just wanted to ask a question

Does the same 'Ukraine must try to step up to the negotiating table' rhetoric apply if we were talking about Texas or New York annexed by someone?

Step up and cede Texas - it's the right thing to do?

I suppose that would depend on the strategic balance, and a whole bunch of other hypothetical considerations that I'm not going to bother getting into, because I don't think it is really a serious inquiry.

Once again, all of you courageous hardliners are totally missing my point. I've proposed two major concepts that just seem to be entirely ignored.

1. The West, and particularly the United States, has not spent billions on arming Ukraine solely based upon strategic factors. There is a much more sinister drive behind it that bears consideration.
2. I'm, again, for the, i don't know, fourth or fifth time, only suggesting that someone have a discussion about deescalating the war and to seriously consider diplomatic options. I'm not suggesting anyone just cave to Russia's demands. But right now, nobody is even talking and it sounds like if those in support of an ongoing never ending war that is anything short of regime change in Russia, then the only possible outcome is nuclear war and by that point, it will be far too late to say, you know what, Jarhead had a point. Because you'll all be dead.

I will add that spending money on weapons and arms and funding never ending wars is literally the only issue the democrats and republicans agree on. Anytime those two camps agree on something, you should pay careful attention and question it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: undercovergeek on October 11, 2022, 05:52:21 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 11, 2022, 05:26:56 PM
Quote from: undercovergeek on October 11, 2022, 05:15:35 PM
First step into this - just wanted to ask a question

Does the same 'Ukraine must try to step up to the negotiating table' rhetoric apply if we were talking about Texas or New York annexed by someone?

Step up and cede Texas - it's the right thing to do?

I suppose that would depend on the strategic balance, and a whole bunch of other hypothetical considerations that I'm not going to bother getting into, because I don't think it is really a serious inquiry.


Wow thanks, I'm not sure what face I need to pull to make it seem like a serious question - it was

It's very easy to say 'do some negotiating' when it's not your country - I only wanted to flip your point of view and see if it was the same if it was your country
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2022, 05:53:20 PM
QuoteNow if we would only restocked the gear and munitions we've given Ukraine, as well as increase arms supplies to Taiwan, we just might avoid a war in the Pacific.

to the best of my knowledge a lot of the funding is going to do just that.  its also worth repeating that a lot of the missiles for Himars and the M-270 are types that the Pentagon decided it wont be using again.  stuff like scatterable mine warheads and some other cluster munitions.

QuoteI'm critical of the notion that just talking about such a thing is worthy of attack.

talking about peace is all well and good.  the problem is that the Ukraine has stated its goals and has the support of western governments to try achieving them.  the problem with musk is that he's shown a willingness to use his celebrity to add more confusion and controversy to a topic.  while they're two very different subjects, his use of media with his twitter mess is a recent example.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2022, 05:54:37 PM
QuoteI only wanted to flip your point of view and see if it was the same if it was your country

wasn't the Zimmerman telegram pretty much the last straw for the US getting into WW1?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 11, 2022, 06:00:00 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2022, 05:53:20 PM

QuoteI'm critical of the notion that just talking about such a thing is worthy of attack.

talking about peace is all well and good.  the problem is that the Ukraine has stated its goals and has the support of western governments to try achieving them.  the problem with musk is that he's shown a willingness to use his celebrity to add more confusion and controversy to a topic.  while they're two very different subjects, his use of media with his twitter mess is a recent example.

I agree generally that "celebrities" and I think Elon Musk qualifies as one in this context, are better off staying uninvolved and to the extent they do try to influence outcomes, it should be done carefully to avoid the confusion of which you speak. However, whether we like it or not, people with such extraordinary wealth have extreme power and influence. Look at Bill Gates, in particular. He is extremely involved in guiding and setting policy. Therefore, these individuals will have a say and while I may disagree with some of the terms of what Musk suggested on twitter, I think the overall idea of working toward a peaceful end to the war should be embraced.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2022, 06:47:04 PM
found a video with an old friend of JH's.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1579979648578236416

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 11, 2022, 06:59:40 PM
I smell blood in Putin's court, I think we're in a good position to keep applying pressure to force collapse without pushing to nuke escalation.  Why should Ukraine concede anything when they have the advantage ? 

Negotiations could be a tactic in a sense.  Ukraine should make the same demands, to look like it's negotiating.  Meanwhile the offensive continues, and more land is liberated.  I still highly doubt putin will use a nuke.

I think I would be more receptive to peace talks if the war was the artillery ground and pound stalemate we saw in July.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 11, 2022, 10:09:31 PM
I think Putin's MORE likely to use nukes now than a week ago. His reaction to the big bridge getting blown-up was an emotional one, fire missiles at everything Ukrainian in sight cause he looks bad to the whole world. Another huge defeat or a collapse of his military leading to the loss of the Crimea, could push him over the edge. Nukes maybe the only way out of this mess he created in his view of things. That's why while fully supporting the Ukes, the West should in every way be trying to de-escalate this conflict and convince Putin to backtrack his army out of Ukraine while he still has one. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 01:38:33 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2022, 06:47:04 PM
found a video with an old friend of JH's.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1579979648578236416

Awwww, yes. Machine gun porn. Excuse me while I go find my Aveeno.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 12, 2022, 06:41:49 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 11, 2022, 10:09:31 PM
I think Putin's MORE likely to use nukes now than a week ago. His reaction to the big bridge getting blown-up was an emotional one, fire missiles at everything Ukrainian in sight cause he looks bad to the whole world. Another huge defeat or a collapse of his military leading to the loss of the Crimea, could push him over the edge. Nukes maybe the only way out of this mess he created in his view of things. That's why while fully supporting the Ukes, the West should in every way be trying to de-escalate this conflict and convince Putin to backtrack his army out of Ukraine while he still has one.
I still don't see Putin using nukes for the simple reason there's nothing to gain by using them and a ton to lose if he does so. However we now have a top general who routinely used chemical weapons against civilians in Syria. Now there's a worry that just got a lot more concrete.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 12, 2022, 07:44:21 AM
Recent news this morning (since midnight EST) from the Washington Post: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-nato-discusses-air-defenses-russia-claims-arrests-for-crimean-bridge-blast/ar-AA12RTHy?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=24134db321bd48e8b48daa6f6f7454b2

Quote2:10 AM: HIMARS from U.S. and IRIS-T air defense system from Germany arrive in Ukraine

An IRIS-T air defense system from Germany and four additional HIMARS systems from the United States have arrived in Ukraine, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov wrote on Twitter on Tuesday.

"A new era of air defence has begun" in Ukraine, he said.

Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have called for expedited and additional air defense systems in the wake of Russia's string of strikes on Monday.

The German Defense Ministry said Monday that the first of four IRIS-T air defense systems — modern weapons that Germany promised in June — would arrive in Ukraine in the "next few days." But the IRIS-T system appeared to have arrived sooner that anticipated.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said the defense system can protect "an entire major city from Russian air attacks," Germany's Deutsche Welle broadcaster reported.

Reznikov thanked President Biden, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the American people, as well as his counterpart in Germany. "This is only the beginning. And we need more," he said.

By: Sammy Westfall


QuoteThe president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, met with Russia's Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Tuesday.

The two leaders were to discuss "the friendly relations" between the two countries, as well as regional and international issues, the UAE news agency WAM said before the trip.

The visit comes days after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners announced a cut in oil production by 2 million barrels per day, a move that will benefit Putin by increasing oil prices as Russia is under increasing financial pressure from Western sanctions.

Quote3:50 AM: Yellen meets with Ukrainian counterpart, calls on allies to do more

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen met with her Ukrainian counterpart, Sergii Marchenko, on Tuesday in Washington, reassuring him that the United States was sending a recent aid package "as soon as possible." Yellen said the $4.5 billion package would be disbursed "in the coming weeks." In total, the United States has granted $13 billion — "all in grants" — to Ukraine, she said.

"We are committed to getting this funding to you as soon as possible because we know how important it is in supporting your brave resistance to Russia's illegal invasion," she said. But Yellen also called on allies to "join us by swiftly disbursing their existing commitments to Ukraine and by stepping up in doing more — both to help Ukraine continue its essential government services and to help Ukraine begin to build and recover."

By: Bryan Pietsch

Quote4:08 AM: Biden says he has 'no intention' of meeting with Putin at G-20

President Biden said that he has "no intention" of meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia next month but that he would make an exception if, "for example," the discussion were about the release of American basketball star Brittney Griner.

In an interview with CNN that aired Tuesday evening, Biden said, "If [Putin] came to me at the G-20 and said, 'I want to talk about the release of Griner,' I'd meet with him." Griner is detained in Russia, sentenced to 9½ years in prison after a vape cartridge of cannabis oil that was found in her luggage there.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, said Tuesday on state television that Moscow was open to discussions with the United States or Turkey on how to end the war, Reuters reported.

But State Department spokesman Ned Price said Tuesday that the United States has "very little confidence" that it was a legitimate offer for peace talks because Moscow carried out "indiscriminate strikes within hours of this proposal."

Biden, in the interview, said of Putin, "I think he's committed war crimes, so I don't see any rationale to meet with him now."

By: Bryan Pietsch

Quote4:23 AM: The Group of Seven nations on Tuesday committed themselves to continue supplying Ukraine's "urgent requirements" for military equipment and demanded that Russia "completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its troops and military equipment from Ukraine," including Crimea and all "annexed" regions. [...] "Today, Russia will achieve only one additional thing: It will delay our recovery a little," Zelensky said. He said the Group of Seven meeting, too, was "extraordinary" and allowed "the most powerful democracies" to discuss what he described as a Russian escalation.


QuoteBRUSSELS, Belgium — Defense ministers representing the NATO military alliance's 30 members are meeting to coordinate plans on equipping Ukraine's army for battle into winter and discuss the group's response to Russia's "dangerous nuclear rhetoric."


QuoteThe United Nations General Assembly is set to vote this week on a resolution to condemn Russia over its illegal annexations in eastern Ukraine, putting countries on the record for their positions on the war. [...] "It is illegal and simply unacceptable to attempt to redraw another country's borders by force," the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said Tuesday. Thomas-Greenfield called on all U.N. member states to "make [it] clear this week" that the annexations are "a brazen violation of the UN Charter," writing on Twitter that "we must stand together."

By: Bryan Pietsch


Meanwhile, on bridge news:

QuoteMoscow's security services announced the arrests of eight people — including five Russian citizens — after the explosion that destroyed part of the strategic Crimean Bridge early Saturday.

In a statement, Russia's FSB security service accused Ukraine's military intelligence service of coordinating what it described as a "terrorist act" and blamed it on explosives hidden in the back of a cargo truck that detonated along the bridge. The FSB also claimed that three "citizens of Ukraine and Armenia" participated. When asked about the allegations, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs told the public broadcaster that the Russian investigation was "nonsense."

In Moscow's first detailed account of the events leading up to the explosion — a devastating and humiliating attack inflicted deep within Russian-controlled territory — officials outlined how they believe a 22-ton bomb came to be shipped out of the Ukrainian port of Odessa, before traveling a circuitous route into southern Russian via Bulgaria, Armenia and Georgia in the weeks before the blast. "The investigation continues and all organizers and accomplices, including foreigners, will be prosecuted in accordance with Russian law," the FSB said.

Ukraine has not publicly claimed responsibility for the blast, but a government official previously told The Washington Post that Ukrainian special services were responsible.

Some salient quotes from that prior article:

QuoteThe committee said the truck's driver had been identified as a resident of the Krasnodar region of Russia. "The investigation has begun at his place of residence," it said. "The route of the truck and the relevant documentation is being studied." [...]

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, called it "the beginning." "Everything illegal must be destroyed," Podolyak added on Twitter. [However,] Podolyak, the presidential adviser, characterized the explosion as a manifestation of disarray within the Russian government.

"Undoubtedly, we are witnessing the beginning of large-scale negative processes in Russia," he said in a comment sent later to The Post by his spokesman.

Podolyak noted that the driver of the truck that exploded was reported to have come from Russia.

"So, the answers should be sought in Russia," he said. "The logistics of the explosion, synchronization with the fuel echelon, the volume of the destroyed roadway — all this clearly points to the Russian trace."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 12, 2022, 07:51:00 AM
Update on the arrests for the bridge attack: Per the BBC's report, "[Russia's] FSB security service said five of those held were Russians, while the others were Ukrainian and Armenian."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 12, 2022, 09:30:10 AM
A little more information about the Russian FSB claims of investigation, per NBC news: "According to the Russian intelligence service, the explosive device that was used to blow up the bridge was concealed in rolls of construction film, and was shipped from Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odesa to Bulgaria in early August before being moved through Georgia and Armenia and into Russia earlier this month. The explosive was detonated as it was being carried in a truck toward Crimea on Saturday, the FSB said. All the while, Ukrainian agents were in control of the operation, it added."

Considering how Russians like to do their investigations, I suspect this information was provided in sworn testimony by the suspects with some of the details being interpolated due to blood sprays smudging some of the ink on the paper.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 12, 2022, 10:13:51 AM
The ISW super-grogs, whom we love, have an interesting take on the Belarus situation buried in the first part of their Oct 11th analysis (yesterday): https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

"The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases—activity that is incompatible with setting conditions for a large-scale Russian or Belarusian ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on October 11 that a train with 492 tons of ammunition from the Belarusian 43rd Missile and Ammunition Storage Arsenal in Gomel arrived at the Kirovskaya Railway Station in Crimea on an unspecified recent past date.[13] The GUR reported that Belarusian officials plan to send an additional 13 trains with weapons, equipment, ammunition, and other unspecified materiel from five different Belarusian bases to the Kamenska (Kamensk-Shakhtinsky) and Marchevo (Taganrog) railway stations in Rostov Oblast on an unspecified future date. Open-source social media footage supports this report. Geolocated footage showed at least two Belarusian trains transporting Belarusian T-72 tanks and Ural military trucks in Minsk and Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile launchers in Orsha (Vitebsk Oblast) on October 11.[14] Belarusian equipment movements into Russia indicate that Russian and Belarusian forces likely are not establishing assembly areas in Belarus. Belarusian equipment and supply movements to Crimea and Rostov Oblast indicate that Russian forces are less confident about the security of Russian ground lines of communication running through northern and western Luhansk Oblast given the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive there. Ukraine's General Staff reiterated that it monitors Belarus and has not observed indicators of the formation of offensive groups in Belarus on October 11.[15] Russian and or Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine from Belarus, as ISW has previously assessed.[16]"

Put more shortly, the recent activation of Belarus, sort of, could be not much more than a pretext to loot Belarus of functional equipment for the Orcs to work with (and for the Ukrs to blow up.  :coolsmiley: )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 11:01:40 AM
I'll say it again.  if lubi tries to open a northern front he will be overthrown which is the last thing he wants.
at the end of it all I dont see him staying in power anyway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 12, 2022, 01:06:53 PM
Lukashenko keeps spending most of his time provoking Poland. 

Yesterday he waxed on about how Poland was shaking in terror at the might of Belarus.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 12, 2022, 01:17:27 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 11, 2022, 05:09:25 PM
North Korea does not have the nuclear capability to end civilized life on the planet. If the Norks raised a credible threat of using a nuclear weapon, I believe this capability could be destroyed conventionally without much risk. The equation is also much different with China, who has vastly different economic interests and is not led by a potentially irrational dictator. The strategic situations in the examples you raise are very different.

Putting all that aside, I am simply talking about having a discussion of peaceful diplomatic solutions and I'm critical of the notion that just talking about such a thing is worthy of attack. That, in my view, is naive madness in the extreme.

I'm not suggesting the West should simply "cave" to Russia. I'm suggesting that the West should encourage Ukraine to engage in some form of diplomacy with Russia and be prepared to consider some proposal that might at least make some headway toward deescalation. The West has already proven that it will use pawns to fight proxy wars against its enemies by spending billions to fund, train and arm them. The destruction of the Russian conventional military capability would have otherwise been impossible.

Apologies for the lengthy post here.  In an effort to defuse some of the tension around this topic, I feel like it's important to speak very specifically about this topic.  Here goes!

I think this is a very fair question, and it's one that we should be able to discuss logically without evaluating any viewpoint as "pro-Commie" or "pro-Fascist" or whatever we're calling the Russians these days.

Putin has recently stated that a pre-condition for negotiations is Ukrainian recognition of the 4 "peaceful annexation votes" in question.  That was a new addition, after previous insistence that Ukraine's foreswearing entry into NATO was the primary precondition.  Ukraine has once again stated a list of pre-conditions that are more extensive and specific (e.g., full military withdrawal of occupied territories, no concessions of "sovereign Ukrainian soil", return of Ukrainian citizens deported to Russia during hostilities, etc.).  So, at this point, the two sides are pretty far apart and neither party is willing to talk to the other.

But talks do continue.  The Ukrainians this month rejected a proposed Mexican peace plan that they deemed unsuitable.  Rejecting a third-part proposal suggests that you are in fact talking and listening--clear evidence of ongoing diplomacy.  The Russians are also having talks with Mexico.  So the discussion you're asking for is already happening.  The two sides simply aren't agreeing on even the basics at this point.

Given the extraordinary "fat tail" risks on the worst-outcome side of the Ukraine situation, I do think it's worth considering de-escalation tactics.  Since we have no idea what bargaining is done in secret, I see three key problems for Western leaders in terms of adopting more public and aggressive stances on unilateral Ukrainian de-escalatory measures(as you seem to be suggesting--I'm not sure?):


I don't disagree with you in theory, JH.  I just don't see what can be done practically.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 01:25:21 PM
Is there anything really worth the impact of global nuclear war? I think this is germane to the discussion.

Is brinkmanship between nuclear powers in getting what they want, still a thing?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 01:35:06 PM
todays meeting of 50 Defense Ministers discussing how to further fuck russia.   :arr:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe4ur5dXgAI9SeF?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 01:36:21 PM
Quote from: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 01:25:21 PM
Is brinkmanship between nuclear powers in getting what they want, still a thing?

obviously it is.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 01:40:17 PM
Quote from: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 01:25:21 PM
Is there anything really worth the impact of global nuclear war? I think this is germane to the discussion.


This is kind of the Six Million Dollar question that nobody who is in support of continuing the war seems to be asking or seriously considering. My answer is an emphatic, no. It's actually a HELL NO.

With respect to FarAway's post above, there are ways to make concessions without losing "face" or setting a negative precedent. How do you think the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved averting nuclear war? Both the Soviet Union and the United States made concessions.

FarAway is right...in order for their to be a diplomatic resolution, BOTH sides must make concessions. This usually means both sides will walk away unhappy about one thing or another...but in my business, this is what we call a good settlement. And in my view, as the father of two young children, virtually any settlement that averts nuclear war is a good one worth considering.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 01:41:52 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 01:38:33 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2022, 06:47:04 PM
found a video with an old friend of JH's.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1579979648578236416

Awwww, yes. Machine gun porn. Excuse me while I go find my Aveeno.

LoL. Yes historic shades of LB. Well played.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 01:45:24 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 12, 2022, 01:06:53 PM
Lukashenko keeps spending most of his time provoking Poland. 

Yesterday he waxed on about how Poland was shaking in terror at the might of Belarus.

Lies, damned lies, and speeches by Soviet Bloc nations.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 01:46:05 PM
ok JH, how does this war end with all Ukrainian territory returned, the complete exit of russian forces from said territory and putin being removed from office while at the same time avoiding a nuclear incident?

as for the Cuban crisis, we had the flexibility to remove missiles from Turkey.  wheres the flexibility here?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 01:48:30 PM
whats a honky to do!?   :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 12, 2022, 01:49:12 PM
Quote from: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 01:25:21 PM
Is there anything really worth the impact of global nuclear war? I think this is germane to the discussion.

Is brinkmanship between nuclear powers in getting what they want, still a thing?

If we treat Putin's threats in terms of "is anything really worth Putin following through on his threats" (in effect), then yes not only are they still a thing -- because he's the one doing the brinksmanship -- but they're working. At the bare minimum, his threat has kept local NATO/EU members from sending direct action (aside from trainers/advisors more-or-less secretly on the ground) into Ukraine to stop an unstable invader on their own borders.

He's using nuclear threats already to get at least a little of what he wants. But getting that little hasn't helped him win. So we can expect him to escalate until the brinksmanship gets him something he's willing to accept (if only for now). And then he and other unstable nations with nukes will try that again, pushing the line over and over again until they don't meet mush -- or until they themselves trigger off a nuclear war for what they see to be the only remaining minimally acceptable results. Or until the leaders willing to hold nations hostage to nuclear blackmail are removed one way or another.

There's a reason why the biggest film this summer focused on stopping Iran from also becoming a nuclear-weapon power.

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 01:40:17 PM
And in my view, as the father of two young children, virtually any settlement that averts nuclear war is a good one worth considering.

Then the nuclear brinksman nation(s) who want to take over the world, will take over the world. "Virtually any settlement" necessarily includes that settlement, which must be a good result worth considering.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 01:49:44 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 01:40:17 PM
Quote from: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 01:25:21 PM
Is there anything really worth the impact of global nuclear war? I think this is germane to the discussion.


This is kind of the Six Million Dollar question that nobody who is in support of continuing the war seems to be asking or seriously considering. My answer is an emphatic, no. It's actually a HELL NO.

With respect to FarAway's post above, there are ways to make concessions without losing "face" or setting a negative precedent. How do you think the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved averting nuclear war? Both the Soviet Union and the United States made concessions.

FarAway is right...in order for their to be a diplomatic resolution, BOTH sides must make concessions. This usually means both sides will walk away unhappy about one thing or another...but in my business, this is what we call a good settlement. And in my view, as the father of two young children, virtually any settlement that averts nuclear war is a good one worth considering.

Yeah I agree with you there JH. Children really do alter your thinking regarding the long term. And when grandchildren enter the room... all fucking bets are off. Risks that you can personally tolerate (say living in a slightly shady neighbourhood), suddenly are too risky with children involved.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 01:58:57 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 01:46:05 PM
ok JH, how does this war end with all Ukrainian territory returned, the complete exit of russian forces from said territory and putin being removed from office while at the same time avoiding a nuclear incident?

as for the Cuban crisis, we had the flexibility to remove missiles from Turkey.  wheres the flexibility here?

I personally think (up here in my safe haven country) there should be no negotiations until the Ukraine has retaken all of it's territory. Maybe naively, but I think the UAF will keep doing what its doing well into winter. There will be no pause as the Russian forces will be woefully equipped for winter war.

Will Putin throw a nuke/chemical weapons at the Ukraine? I doubt it. There is a real chance that after the Ukraine's retaliation at Belgorod today, the Russians have to think twice about the Ukraine's capabilities.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 02:05:56 PM
I so enjoy not having kids.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 02:20:38 PM
its kind of funny that this is the first war where the enemy is doing the bomb damage assessments for you and doing them more accurately.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe4XChQXgAA2TT_?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 02:23:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 01:46:05 PM
ok JH, how does this war end with all Ukrainian territory returned, the complete exit of russian forces from said territory and putin being removed from office while at the same time avoiding a nuclear incident?

It doesn't. You've listed a set of terms that will not result in a diplomatic resolution, particularly one involving regime change. That represents the very "existential threat" Putin highlights as granting him authority to release nuclear weapons. It is not our legal right, nor in our national interest to make such a demand.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 12, 2022, 02:32:10 PM
Star's list of things to end the war is called, "Ukraine Wins". It's no more realistic than Putin getting everything he wants in exchange for peace. The idea reaching a settlement begins with the notion that neither side gets everything they want. If either, or both, sides hold-out for every single item on it's list of, 'must haves', then this war will just continue until one side can no longer sustain it. Or exists.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 12, 2022, 02:56:59 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 12, 2022, 02:32:10 PM
Star's list of things to end the war is called, "Ukraine Wins". It's no more realistic than Putin getting everything he wants in exchange for peace. The idea reaching a settlement begins with the notion that neither side gets everything they want. If either, or both, sides hold-out for every single item on it's list of, 'must haves', then this war will just continue until one side can no longer sustain it. Or exists.

  Well, that's the problem: Ukraine has been winning for quite a while and this has just made the Russians more and more upset.  Moreover, the more the war goes on, the more the Russians will lose
eventually.  Sooner or later, the Russians have to accept reality and start negotiating realistically. Clearly, they can't have any of Ukraine, but they might be allowed to stay in the UN and possibly be
allowed to get back on their feet economically.  If they had stopped sooner, they could have saved a lot of their positions, but it seems to be far too late for them to expect to get any of their objectives or
even hold on to any of their earlier gains.  That's the problem with losing a war but not admitting it; you get less and less the longer you pretend you aren't losing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 03:20:40 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 12, 2022, 02:56:59 PM
That's the problem with losing a war but not admitting it; you get less and less the longer you pretend you aren't losing.

Unless, perhaps, you have the largest arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons on the planet. In which case, the strategic and political bargaining balance is not quite so straight forward. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 12, 2022, 03:26:16 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 03:20:40 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 12, 2022, 02:56:59 PM
That's the problem with losing a war but not admitting it; you get less and less the longer you pretend you aren't losing.

Unless, perhaps, you have the largest arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons on the planet. In which case, the strategic and political bargaining balance is not quite so straight forward.

  It seems that the only function of the largest arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons on the planet is that it allows the Russians to overlook the fact that the sooner they start negotiating
realistically the better it will be for them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 03:28:42 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 12, 2022, 03:26:16 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 03:20:40 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 12, 2022, 02:56:59 PM
That's the problem with losing a war but not admitting it; you get less and less the longer you pretend you aren't losing.

Unless, perhaps, you have the largest arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons on the planet. In which case, the strategic and political bargaining balance is not quite so straight forward.

  It seems that the only function of the largest arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons on the planet is that it allows the Russians to overlook the fact that the sooner they start negotiating
realistically the better it will be for them.

I disagree with your assessment of the only function.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 12, 2022, 03:35:38 PM
The central issue is that Putin painted himself into a corner with the annexation votes, especially annexing Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

He effectively took them off the table as bargaining chips unless he wants to reverse his grand decrees and "will of the people". 

Want to talk about a way to endanger his regime?  Accepting any peace proposal where the five oblasts in question are in play to be ceded as Ukrainian territory.

And yes, as MengJiao said, it's resulted in a bizzare form of backwards diplomacy, largely predicated on the nuclear threat.  Putin answered military defeat not with a better offer at the negotiating table, but instead increasing his demands and putting in a red line that he can't back down from without endangering his regime.

I gave what I felt would be a good starting point for negotiations a few pages back where both sides would likely have to give and take, but I felt even when I said it that it was a pipe dream.   The two sides are so far apart in their demands that it's going to take some significant change in the calculus for them to start talking. 

My hope continues to hinge on what a few of the experts keep drumming on, and that Putin may now be a madman, but he isn't a suicidal madman, and despite their rhetoric the Russians still fully understand that NATO is more than capable of destroying Russia if the Russians embark on the path of Armageddon. 

Again, maybe a pipe dream.   I've been waiting to see cooler heads prevail and just see an endless cycle of doubling down.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 03:38:05 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 12, 2022, 02:32:10 PM
Star's list of things to end the war is called, "Ukraine Wins". It's no more realistic than Putin getting everything he wants in exchange for peace. The idea reaching a settlement begins with the notion that neither side gets everything they want. If either, or both, sides hold-out for every single item on it's list of, 'must haves', then this war will just continue until one side can no longer sustain it. Or exists.

So supposing Ukraine kicks Russia out of all parts of the Ukraine; then what? What's Russia's move then? It will be years before they can rebuild their forces to try and reclaim their supposed territories. Perpetual conflict? I think not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 03:43:54 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 12, 2022, 02:56:59 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 12, 2022, 02:32:10 PM
Star's list of things to end the war is called, "Ukraine Wins". It's no more realistic than Putin getting everything he wants in exchange for peace. The idea reaching a settlement begins with the notion that neither side gets everything they want. If either, or both, sides hold-out for every single item on it's list of, 'must haves', then this war will just continue until one side can no longer sustain it. Or exists.

  Well, that's the problem: Ukraine has been winning for quite a while and this has just made the Russians more and more upset.  Moreover, the more the war goes on, the more the Russians will lose
eventually.  Sooner or later, the Russians have to accept reality and start negotiating realistically. Clearly, they can't have any of Ukraine, but they might be allowed to stay in the UN and possibly be
allowed to get back on their feet economically.  If they had stopped sooner, they could have saved a lot of their positions, but it seems to be far too late for them to expect to get any of their objectives or
even hold on to any of their earlier gains.  That's the problem with losing a war but not admitting it; you get less and less the longer you pretend you aren't losing.

Cognitive Dissonance on a massive scale is real. When the unthinkable becomes real to Russia (losing all of Crimea) they'll double down on stupid. But JUST LIKE an explosively tantruming child, they'll exhaust themselves and create a new reality where it didn't really matter anyway if they kept the Crimea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 12, 2022, 03:46:36 PM
If history offers any lessons, this could be a long war.

In the industrial age, most major wars didn't end until one or both sides lost their political will, and/or physically could no longer continue to effectively resist (a few exceptions I think: 1866 Austro-Prussian War, and the Korean conflict). 

I certainly would love to see the Ukrainians push the Russians to the point of collapse.

But IMHO both Ukraine and Russia still have a way to go before they reach the point of political or physical exhaustion.

Real peace negotiations probably don't happen until that exhaustion is there; otherwise, peace delegates will just sit around and fight about the 'shape of the negotiating table.' 

I hope I am wrong.   

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 03:48:52 PM
how about the Ukraine takes back Crimea and lets the preexisting occupied territories fuck off.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 03:53:36 PM
russian mine clearing operations.  great success!  :bd:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1580291630913187840
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 03:57:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 03:48:52 PM
how about the Ukraine takes back Crimea and lets the preexisting occupied territories fuck off.

See that's what I am thinking. Ukraine reclaims all its' territories and stops at Russian border and build defenses in depth (real depth). Then what? A troll/cyber war? Missle lobbing at each other's infrastructure? Parades of ceremonial troops marching past each other like at the Pakistan-Indian Border?

If a nation lacks the means to accomplish its goals via war, then what?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 12, 2022, 03:59:02 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 03:53:36 PM
russian mine clearing operations.  great success!  :bd:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1580291630913187840

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe5TEIyWQAIftAy?format=jpg&name=900x900)

what a waste... lives lost, steel production that could have been used to build tractors/housing etc..
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 04:35:49 PM
its not going to be a good winter for russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 12, 2022, 04:45:08 PM
Yeah, this really is a tragic loss of human lives and resources on all sides.  It's not a PC game for sure. 

Starfury, I get why you might view episodes like the mine explosion you posted above as a necessary step down a horrific path, but I'm not sure I understand why you seem to be taking such a gleeful tone in some of these posts.  If Putin and his cronies were getting thrown out windows, I'd be more likely to understand, but we don't know anything about the guys inside that APC.  That's not intended as an attack--I genuinely don't understand.

JH, I'm not saying the situation is the same, but this is a bit like the "Unconditional Surrender or Not?" debate that occurred among the Allies in the final 2 years of the war (obviously, the losers didn't have nukes then, but the potential loss in human life was still staggering). 

I think that insisting on Russian regime change as a precondition for ending the war is reckless, but I don't see the NATO countries doing that.  I don't even see Ukraine doing that.  So what sorts of concessions could be offered here that don't simply encourage further aggression (and more risk of nuclear war long-term)?

Ukraine foreswears participation in NATO in exchange for the return of all Ukrainian territory prior to 2014?  A Korean-style ceasefire that really never extends into full-blown piece?

I have a suspicion that outside countries would need to strip Russia of some additional privileges, which could then be offered back to them as a precondition for getting out of Kuwait Ukraine.  Perhaps we strip them of veto power and a permanent seat on the Security Council, but then offer them one or both back if they leave Ukraine?  Perhaps we negotiate some sort of end to the embargo as a precondition for the Russians satisfying certain requirements? 

A few alternatives that I shudder at, because they set the wrong incentives, but we can still consider:

1) Maybe we exclude the top ranks of Russian leadership from war crime trials but allow ourselves to charge anybody below the rank of Major General? (how do we try their leaders for war crimes without regime change?)
2) Maybe we offer some sort of monetary incentive to rebuild Russian commercial interests in Crimea?  (but how do we know those incentives don't just get repurposed to rearm the Red Army?  or do we care?)
3) Maybe we propose to let Starbucks back into Russia and guarantee 200,000 Russian tourist visas annually to Crimea?
4) Maybe we rebuild the Russians' freaking bridge?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 12, 2022, 04:48:26 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 04:35:49 PM
its not going to be a good winter for russia.

It's not going to be a good winter for Ukraine either, and probably for a lot of people across the world due to rising energy costs and food shortages.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 12, 2022, 04:55:30 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 03:48:52 PM
how about the Ukraine takes back Crimea and lets the preexisting occupied territories fuck off.

Or a modified version of that: once the Uks retake the Crimea, and have pushed up to the Russian-population areas of the Donbas, they offer a goodwill branch along the line they always said (more-or-less, cough):

1.) We understand the Russian-majority populations may not want to be in Ukraine, with our different language and culture (and they avoid adding something derogatory about living under Russian rule, because it's time to be diplomatic). We don't want to oppress anyone, only to be free of another government's oppression. So we will not push any farther, and will draw our lines here-here-here-etc.

2.) However, we also know that those areas did cede from the collapse of the Soviet Union to join us instead of Russia, so we know some people there must want to live under our government and culture. By the same token, we acknowledge that some people under our government may wish to live under Russian government.

3.) Therefore we propose a mutual immigration treaty where each nation will allow and foster emigration from each other and immigration to each other, using national resources and the aid of any interested international parties to provide a fair exit and resettlement process for anyone who applies to move between us, this treaty being set in perpetuity. We will force no one to live in Ukraine if they wish to live in Russia, and Russia will force no one to live there who wishes to live in Ukraine, nor will either of us treat them badly for leaving, but each of us will work together to serve the wishes of our populations.

4.) Nor will we even ask for reparations from Russia for combat damage to Ukrainian people and property up to this point. We willingly paid the price to be free, and to live our lives by our own choices: we ask for nothing more than what we have secured -- our freedom.


Now admittedly, I have trouble believing Russian leadership would agree to this. But it ought to play hella well with NATO/EU nations, and with interested other-parties who would also love for Russia to stop screwing around and get back to at-least-what-passes-for-normal business in Russia. ;) In victory, magnanimity or however that's spelled.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2022, 05:10:10 PM
while I can come across as gleeful I'm not.  this shit needs to be beat down here and now in a definitive way.
this is the conflict that defines the next 50+ years of geopolitics.  It's the last spasm of cold war bullshit and I'm done with it.
fuck that country!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 12, 2022, 05:19:02 PM
What do T-62s look like with new paint and maybe some bells and whistles for comfort?

We will soon know. Russia is going to working on 800 of them over the next three years.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-to-modernize-800-vintage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report/ar-AA12SQPr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1685c28e29f849e98c8d246a2a68ba2c (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-to-modernize-800-vintage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report/ar-AA12SQPr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1685c28e29f849e98c8d246a2a68ba2c)

The article links to a Russian article that gives a few more details. I was able to read it with MS Edge's translate feature:
https://anna-news.info/deputat-guravlev-800-tankov-t-62-popolnyat-rossijskuyu-armiyu-v-techenii-3-let/ (https://anna-news.info/deputat-guravlev-800-tankov-t-62-popolnyat-rossijskuyu-armiyu-v-techenii-3-let/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 12, 2022, 08:12:45 PM
I'm at a loss to even attempt to guess how long Russia can keep the war going.

I automatically think back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Barbarossa and even the Napoleonic push to Moscow. I suppose the only one that is truly similar is Afghanistan, while in WWII and the Napoleonic Wars it was the Russians fighting an invader. On the defense we know the Russians can last virtually forever. On the offense...?

Each of the above conflicts has influenced Putin in some way and we now have to worry about how his mind, shaped by these events and so many others, embraces nuclear weapons. In February right up until the day of the invasion most of us thought that a full scale Russian attack on Ukraine was unthinkable.

Now we are saying the same about the use of nukes, the American President is warning of 'Armageddon' and the rest of us hunker down for a cold, expensive winter, at best.

In my house I digest a much more limited amount of news around my family. I started that in March 2020 with COVID and it continues now. When I'm alone, I read and watch a lot about this war and it is nerve wracking.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 12, 2022, 08:53:12 PM
So putin uses a tactical nuke on kherson or the donbas offensives, do we respond conventionally like Petraeus suggested or just sit on our hands and keep adding sanctions ?

I'm starting to think Biden's Armagedón comment might be a gaff, cause it's quite triggered the dooms dayers when it shouldn't have.  I guess all the nuke talk is the effect Putin wanted, everyone in the west looking over their shoulders.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 12, 2022, 09:15:59 PM
Can someone explain the history behind Lukashenko and his sudden obsession with Poland?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 12, 2022, 09:34:06 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 12, 2022, 09:15:59 PM
Can someone explain the history behind Lukashenko and his sudden obsession with Poland?

It's not sudden.

There's a significant Polish minority in Belarus and they've long been critical of Lukashenko and his dictatorship.   Poland has supported regularly movements that are opposed to Lukashenko.

They dislike sharing a border with him and there's some dispute over controlled border territories.  Lukashenko expects Russia to eventually enforce some Belorussian claims on Poland despite Poland's NATO membership in return for Lukashenko's loyalty.

With everything escalating right now, Lukashenko's just banging the anti-Poland drum because it's one he's been keen to bang before.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 13, 2022, 12:01:39 AM
Random responses on a lot of topics:

1) Interesting proposal, Jason.  One of the biggest hurdles to clear:  The Russians have already conducted a lot of "ethnic/nationalist cleansing" in the occupied regions.  I'm not sure that the pro-Ukrainian folks who fled the Crimea and Donbas would sit well with that.  The unlimited immigration proposal is very interesting, but I think something the Russian leadership would never accept.  I think Putin viewed the Ukrainians as a really powerful cultural threat to Russia, but that's a more complicated topic.

2) Skoop, it's really hard to evaluate the effectiveness of any foreign leader's efforts to rein in Moscow, because Putin's been utterly unpredictable.

3) There are two major sanctions left in the Western bag:  A) Full stop on buying anything Russian, including energy exports;   B) Extend the embargo to all countries who still trade with Russia.  If push comes to shove, would China choose to keep trading with Russia or Europe and North America?  Would India?  It's unclear what role the Russian public might play.

4) Gus, I also am puzzled at the Russians' cost tolerance in a war of aggression.  Especially one that they seem to be losing in fairly dramatic fashion.  Lord knows it doesn't matter how badly they lose when they're invaded, they just keep starving and killing off their occupiers until they leave.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2022, 12:23:21 AM
no one is invading russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2022, 01:11:00 AM
meanwhile in russia....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe4mqKAXgAAuV1y?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 13, 2022, 03:01:14 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on October 12, 2022, 05:19:02 PM
What do T-62s look like with new paint and maybe some bells and whistles for comfort?

We will soon know. Russia is going to working on 800 of them over the next three years.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-to-modernize-800-vintage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report/ar-AA12SQPr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1685c28e29f849e98c8d246a2a68ba2c (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-to-modernize-800-vintage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report/ar-AA12SQPr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1685c28e29f849e98c8d246a2a68ba2c)

The article links to a Russian article that gives a few more details. I was able to read it with MS Edge's translate feature:
https://anna-news.info/deputat-guravlev-800-tankov-t-62-popolnyat-rossijskuyu-armiyu-v-techenii-3-let/ (https://anna-news.info/deputat-guravlev-800-tankov-t-62-popolnyat-rossijskuyu-armiyu-v-techenii-3-let/)

Meanwhile, I've seen a few tweets there being one (1) T-14 Armata at field tests at Luhans region, serving as a command tank, in the more static area of the front where they have no risk of losing it should it break down or something. T-14 after all was the tank that got so many mil bloggers declare the death of Abrams and Leopard MBTs. And now we are here.

Marek Meissner who's got a solid reputation for details about Russian tanks manufactured and in storage, doubts even this news item:

https://twitter.com/MarekMeissner/status/1580250236710100993

QuoteI am able to believe in the 800 T-62 bodies, even with turrets and propulsion system. But where the motors with gears, optoelectronics and communication systems will come from, I have no idea

Yes, but unaware of how much is left and in what condition, the info from deep storage warehouses in the Far East where the older types of tanks were stored are terrible. Most are just shells. A further 800 cars per plant is a job for 2-3 years. 1/2

Meanwhile, the level of tank losses in Ukraine is horrible, at such a pace will happen to the situation of the "Third Reich 1945" where what left the factory went to the front and was immediately scrapped. But also the 800 T-62 proves that there is no T-72 anymore. Even in deep warehouses. 2/2

Worth to notice indeed is that we're down to T-62s now. Stocks of T-90s-80s-72s seemingly depleted now. That is quite something.

And it's not better with artillery either, seeing lot of tweets they are now deplyoing their 1940s stock of D-1 152mms to front. I have no idea what was the steel quality at the time, how tubes are affected after 70 years in storate, and if they even are compatible with their more modern 152 shells.

I have no glee about people losing their lives in this senseless, brutal invasio either, but I am quite happy witnessing Russians destroy their heavy weaponry for decade(s) to come. In future, no kind of any Soviet era massive stocks anywhere. Modern heavy weaponry is crazy expensive, good luck with that.

Again, Putin's a very sane operator, he's intimidated his smaller neighbours one at a time so far. There's been a reason, he's been aware about the general limits of his army.

With historical comparisons, if Crimea 2014 was his "Peace in our time" moment when he could have been stopped, Vladolph's "invasion of Poland" is not going to plans at all.

I do not see this as a forever war, there's been plenty of historical examples of a nuclear power losing and calling it the quits, from Vietnam to Afganistan in 1980s and Afganistan in recent times too.

Let us ensure the brave Ukrainians get to call when they want to end defending their country against Russia's invasion and let us keep stocking them up. Stopping Putin would have been easier in the past, it is costly at the moment, and the future war he's wage if allowed to regroup and restock would be even costlier.


Edit: here's a good look at their T-62 factory:

QuoteRussia is modifying 800 T-62 tanks for the war in Ukraine. This means that all newer T-64, T-72 and T-80 tanks are over, and new ones cannot be produced quickly.

Assess the situation of the tank factory in the video, by the way

https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1580216195546243072


Edit2: here's a Feb 2020 article on how Russian Armed forces saw their use of MBTs in 2027: 500 T-14 Armatas, 400 T-90Ms, 2000 T-72B3+s. T-14 fleet not gonna happen, T-72s all but gone(?), T-90s (glorified T-72s) maybe 200-300 left?

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3935520.html

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 13, 2022, 03:01:23 AM
^it must be cold for her to be wearing that Papakha inside.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 13, 2022, 04:48:13 AM
Chemical weapons here we go then. That did not take long  :(

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1580168586626494465.html

(yes, "only" tear gas, but read the thread)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 13, 2022, 07:32:14 AM
Well if deploying one kind of WMD might get your entire remaining force, air land and sea, blotted out of reality 48 hours later by conventional super-power, try deploying another kind of WMD I guess... ask Saddam how well that worked for him.  :P

(I fully encourage Putin meeting with Saddam on this to compare notes, soon.  >:D Though come to think of it, his replacement options look even worse than he is...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 13, 2022, 07:43:25 AM
After Russia failed to sail a private vote on the matter, the public UN vote has been made.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/143-un-countries-vote-to-condemn-russia-s-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/ar-AA12TyJ4?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=892b44fd9f36432daf9811d1caff4d70

The negative votes, as pretty much expected from prior diplomatic signals, were Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Syria, and Nicaragua.

33 nations abstained however, including India, China, Cuba, Vietnam, and Pakistan.

No doubt the Russians will take this under advisement.  ::) (To be fair, I kind of prefer the UN to be practically useless for anything other than being a diplomatic middle-ground.)

And yes, I have that line from Hans Gruber in Die Hard in mind, but I'm lazy this morning so I didn't try to find a snapshot meme.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 13, 2022, 08:08:04 AM
Not much new here from the Daily Mail (via MSN which has way less pop-up ads than the Mail -- I checked. ;) )

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-supplied-underwater-drone-may-have-caused-crimean-bridge-explosion-military-analysts-claim/ar-AA12Sz0H?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=892b44fd9f36432daf9811d1caff4d70

Two bits of information: 1. there's no sign of a crater in the bridge, which would be expected from a truck bomb that size. (I hadn't heard or seen anyone talk about that before.)

2. this is the second time I've seen the report of 5 Russians and 3 remaining mix of Ukrainian and Armenian (supposed) suspects arrested, now changed to 5 Ukrainians and a mix of 3 of the other 2.

The first time I saw it (in another article this morning I haven't posted because it had no new information at all otherwise), I thought it might be a typo. It still might be a typo being propagated from a shared source (perhaps the underlying Russian source report). But it smacks of Russian disinformation: the first report looked too embarrassing, like they were even trying to hide that they only arrested one Ukrainian but a strong majority of Russians. So now they changed it to arresting 5 Uks and maybe only one Russian (while similarly hinting there were two Russians arrested which they're trying to 'hide'.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 13, 2022, 08:59:43 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on October 13, 2022, 04:48:13 AM
Chemical weapons here we go then. That did not take long  :(

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1580168586626494465.html

(yes, "only" tear gas, but read the thread)

I could be completely wrong, but I just don't see the Russians opening the bottle on the 'green genie' as a tactical weapon.

Without proper training, support and coordination, chem weapons can be just as dangerous to your own forces as they are to the enemy.

But maybe I am over thinking this. The Russians are starting to send in barely trained infantrymen...and they don't seem to care these guys are walking into a meatgrinder. So maybe the Russians don't care that in a gas attack some of their own guys do the 'chokin chicken' along with the Ukrainians.

The terrifying thought is that the Russians use chem weapons to go after civilian targets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 13, 2022, 09:24:14 AM
Thanks D...I did not know the history between Poland and Belarus. If Lukashenko really thinks Putin will help him in any meaningful way against Poland I have a bridge to sell him.

I was also going to say 'nice hair hat' to the above...thing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 13, 2022, 09:43:30 AM
Do you get the feeling maybe Putin's really a secret Western agent planted decades ago to one day totally destroy Russia when the time was right?  :coolsmiley:  I bet his real name is something like, 'Bernie Schwartz' and he was born in Philly.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 13, 2022, 09:49:36 AM
^That cover name is dangerously close to my Gramps' name. Putin is not my Gramps.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2022, 09:50:28 AM
why Bernie Schwartz?   why not Malcom Richardson?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 13, 2022, 09:52:32 AM
Why not Gladys Pimpernel?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 13, 2022, 10:30:01 AM
A slightly amusing/off beat note to today's madness.  On twitter there is a video of what may be the world's first first drone v. drone aerial kill:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580490706560626688
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 13, 2022, 10:38:22 AM
^OMG...'brave new world'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 13, 2022, 10:43:43 AM
I vote for Putin's secret identity to be Alois Schickelgruber!  >:D {/deepWW2ref}
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 13, 2022, 11:00:40 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 13, 2022, 12:01:39 AM
1) Interesting proposal, Jason.  One of the biggest hurdles to clear:  The Russians have already conducted a lot of "ethnic/nationalist cleansing" in the occupied regions.  I'm not sure that the pro-Ukrainian folks who fled the Crimea and Donbas would sit well with that.  The unlimited immigration proposal is very interesting, but I think something the Russian leadership would never accept.  I think Putin viewed the Ukrainians as a really powerful cultural threat to Russia, but that's a more complicated topic.

Oh sure, the Uks wouldn't be happy giving up reparations, no doubt. But this is marketing diplomacy: the point is to position themselves in an observably self-sacrificial way on the high road. And after all, it'll be a cold day in hell before Putin or his government pay reparations anyway, so Ukraine wouldn't really be losing anything by agreeing beforehand to give that up in a way which shows off how awesome they are -- or want to be seen as. I'm not discounting the Ukrainian corruption problems, but if Ukraine is going to be in the EU and/or NATO, they need to be seen to be playing along with NATO/EU values, and Lord knows the Ukrainians have been successful at (I think truly) promoting their desire for freedom from oppression. Might as well play to their strengths. Besides, I'm also looking at ways for Ukraine to offer stances that can be negotiated on, if necessary.

And again, as I noted, I doubt Russia would ever accept unlimited mutual immigration, for exactly the reason you said: part of (not all of) the strategic reason for their invasion was to eliminate a viable cultural alternative on their border -- one who wasn't in NATO/EU yet, so who was politically vulnerable to invasion, in the larger world situation.

But offering such a deal should be something their new erstwhile super-allies (NATO/EU) should eat up like pizza! -- as well as interested non-allied parties (like India) and THAT translates to pressure on Russia to accept, perhaps with some modifications of the recovery line-boundaries in the prior breakaway regions. Right now Ukraine, like Russia, is insisting on non-negotiation terms, so to speak: ones their allies wouldn't mind but which also leaves no room for negotiation with Russia for de-escalation purposes. Each side is effectively insisting on what amounts to unconditional surrender of population control, Russia vastly much moreso than Ukraine of course.

Putting it another way, I'm eyeing a victory condition offer which takes away as much of Russia's propaganda jabber-points as possible. (It's Russia, you'll never get rid of all the nonsense.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 13, 2022, 11:22:31 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 13, 2022, 11:00:40 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 13, 2022, 12:01:39 AM
1) Interesting proposal, Jason.  One of the biggest hurdles to clear:  The Russians have already conducted a lot of "ethnic/nationalist cleansing" in the occupied regions.  I'm not sure that the pro-Ukrainian folks who fled the Crimea and Donbas would sit well with that.  The unlimited immigration proposal is very interesting, but I think something the Russian leadership would never accept.  I think Putin viewed the Ukrainians as a really powerful cultural threat to Russia, but that's a more complicated topic.

Oh sure, the Uks wouldn't be happy giving up reparations, no doubt. But this is marketing diplomacy: the point is to position themselves in an observably self-sacrificial way on the high road. And after all, it'll be a cold day in hell before Putin or his government pay reparations anyway, so Ukraine wouldn't really be losing anything by agreeing beforehand to give that up in a way which shows off how awesome they are -- or want to be seen as. I'm not discounting the Ukrainian corruption problems, but if Ukraine is going to be in the EU and/or NATO, they need to be seen to be playing along with NATO/EU values, and Lord knows the Ukrainians have been successful at (I think truly) promoting their desire for freedom from oppression. Might as well play to their strengths. Besides, I'm also looking at ways for Ukraine to offer stances that can be negotiated on, if necessary.

And again, as I noted, I doubt Russia would ever accept unlimited mutual immigration, for exactly the reason you said: part of (not all of) the strategic reason for their invasion was to eliminate a viable cultural alternative on their border -- one who wasn't in NATO/EU yet, so who was politically vulnerable to invasion, in the larger world situation.

But offering such a deal should be something their new erstwhile super-allies (NATO/EU) should eat up like pizza! -- as well as interested non-allied parties (like India) and THAT translates to pressure on Russia to accept, perhaps with some modifications of the recovery line-boundaries in the prior breakaway regions. Right now Ukraine, like Russia, is insisting on non-negotiation terms, so to speak: ones their allies wouldn't mind but which also leaves no room for negotiation with Russia for de-escalation purposes. Each side is effectively insisting on what amounts to unconditional surrender of population control, Russia vastly much moreso than Ukraine of course.

Putting it another way, I'm eyeing a victory condition offer which takes away as much of Russia's propaganda jabber-points as possible. (It's Russia, you'll never get rid of all the nonsense.)

   I wonder if at this point the surviving Russian elite really cares anymore about messing with murdering the correct parts of the population from Moldovia to Tajikistan.  It's kind of a pre-2010 kind of a  concept.  It might be just too much trouble once the targets get missile defenses and tanks and artillery and so on.
On the other hand, just murdering in a generalized way isn't too hard when you shoot enough missiles and whatnot into population centers -- but still while I'm sure they will keep murdering in order to keep
up appearances -- I wonder if the Russian elite focus hasn't shifted to an area where they can win without too much trouble, GAS.  So they blew up the pipeline in the Baltic and now claim that they blame
the US for that (which is kind of odd, after all the US is pretty sure they didn't do it) BUT they are interested in a GAS deal with Turkeyei.  If the Russian elite can get some kind of ceasefire (maybe with the UN supervisiing a huge neutral zone all around the Black Sea) they can run their GAS to Turkeyei and claim victory since the West will be cut out of the deal with Turkeyei.

From CNN:

Russia and Ukraine exchange blame for damaged residential building in Belgorod
From Uliana Pavlova
Moscow and Kyiv are blaming each other for the damage inflicted on a residential building on Thursday in the Russian city of Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine.

Russian officials blamed the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to social media posts. However, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Russia launched missiles towards Kharkiv and missed its target.

"Around 12:40 p.m. local time, an unidentified object fell on the residential building at 42 Gubkina Street as the result of an air defense operation. Now, destruction on the top floor is visible on the spot, two cars are damaged by debris. At the moment, there is no information about the victims," Belgorod mayor Anton Ivanov said in a video message posted on his Telegram.

Residents were relocated to a hotel, Ivanov added.

Belgorod Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov blamed the Ukrainian Armed Forces for shelling the residential building.

"Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled Belgorod. The air defense at work. There is destruction in a residential apartment building on Gubkin Street. Information about the victims is being specified," the governor said in a Telegram post.

However, Podolyak denied the accusation, saying it was Russia's own mistake.

"Russia launched a missile towards Kharkiv, but something went wrong and it hit a residential building in Belgorod, Russia. Will there be an investigation? Or punishment? No, Putin does not care who to kill: Ukrainians or Russians. Propagandists will quickly find a fake explanation," Ukrainian presidential adviser Podolyak said on Twitter.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 13, 2022, 12:50:14 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on October 13, 2022, 10:30:01 AM
A slightly amusing/off beat note to today's madness.  On twitter there is a video of what may be the world's first first drone v. drone aerial kill:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580490706560626688

That's interesting. I had heard that DJI, the manufacturer of the Mavic, among other popular commercial and hobbyist drones, had taken certain actions to make sure their drones are not used in war zones, particularly Ukraine and by either side. I don't recall if these were software related measures, or something else. it may just be suspending sales to any of the belligerents.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2022, 01:03:51 PM
waiting on visual proof but the chatter is that the UAF laid a trap and shot down 5 Ka-52s in a single engagement.   <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2022, 01:53:47 PM
russian propaganda isnt happy today:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1580623756934152193

:DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2022, 02:03:50 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe892qcXEAIvUQ7?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 13, 2022, 02:45:52 PM
"Triple-layer of trenches". So the guys in the first line can hold-off the enemy, the guys in the second line can hold the guys in the first line from running and the guys in the third line.... You get it.

Why not Bernadette Schwartz?  :-X
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 13, 2022, 02:53:58 PM
That latest tweet puts new meaning into the name 'TWITter'

'clown show'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2022, 03:26:30 PM
so we get to see how Kursk style defenses work in the 21st century.   <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 13, 2022, 05:46:47 PM
Looking at one of the more recent maps of northern Ukraine it hits me how significant the gains have been. The Oskil River is well behind the front line now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 13, 2022, 06:29:35 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on October 13, 2022, 10:30:01 AM
A slightly amusing/off beat note to today's madness.  On twitter there is a video of what may be the world's first first drone v. drone aerial kill:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580490706560626688

I saw video of the guy getting his first manpad vs missile victory, first one in history apparently; then he did it again later (according to President Z, who congratulated him on it.) Can't recall if we talked about that upthread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 13, 2022, 06:39:31 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 13, 2022, 06:29:35 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on October 13, 2022, 10:30:01 AM
A slightly amusing/off beat note to today's madness.  On twitter there is a video of what may be the world's first first drone v. drone aerial kill:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580490706560626688

I saw video of the guy getting his first manpad vs missile victory, first one in history apparently; then he did it again later (according to President Z, who congratulated him on it.) Can't recall if we talked about that upthread.

Indicative of slower, older missiles being used?  And talk about being in the right place at the right time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 13, 2022, 09:55:03 PM
I can't wait for the world's first, 'Drone Ace' to be presented.  :nerd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 13, 2022, 10:28:54 PM
Will that be the first guy to shoot down 5 drones?  Or to shoot down 5 drones with a drone?

I have to think that painting decals on these things to mark kills is going to get really hard.  There's just not a lot of surface area to work with.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2022, 10:33:35 PM
more then enough after market model decal sets for that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 14, 2022, 07:19:35 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on October 13, 2022, 06:39:31 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 13, 2022, 06:29:35 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on October 13, 2022, 10:30:01 AM
A slightly amusing/off beat note to today's madness.  On twitter there is a video of what may be the world's first first drone v. drone aerial kill:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580490706560626688

I saw video of the guy getting his first manpad vs missile victory, first one in history apparently; then he did it again later (according to President Z, who congratulated him on it.) Can't recall if we talked about that upthread.

Indicative of slower, older missiles being used?  And talk about being in the right place at the right time.

My guess is that he hit anti-ship missiles coming in. Like you said, anti-air missiles being used for ground strikes would seem to be faster (suitable for air combat).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 08:01:09 AM
it was a typical land attack cruise missile that only going 450 to 500 mph in a straight line.  great shot by the manpads and good on him being in the right place at the right time but not a difficult kill with everything being in place.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 14, 2022, 09:50:09 AM
Crimea bridge repairs to be finished by July 2023 says a Russian government document according to Reuters.

QuoteMOSCOW, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said.

The Crimea bridge, a showcase project of Russian President Vladimir Putin's rule, was damaged in a blast that Russia has blamed on Ukraine. Some Ukrainian officials celebrated the incident but Kyiv has not claimed reponsibility.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

Seems plausible, how the explosion played out it must have caused a ton of vibration on both sides of the road bridge, plus the fire damaging the rail bridge.

This should wreak havoc to Russian logistics in the occupied territories in Southern Ukraine, as the rail and road network around Mariupol is under the range of Ukrainian indirect and MRLS fire. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 14, 2022, 09:59:19 AM
It was a big doozie of a target. Well done.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 14, 2022, 10:23:34 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on October 14, 2022, 09:50:09 AM
Crimea bridge repairs to be finished by July 2023 says a Russian government document according to Reuters.

QuoteMOSCOW, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said.

The Crimea bridge, a showcase project of Russian President Vladimir Putin's rule, was damaged in a blast that Russia has blamed on Ukraine. Some Ukrainian officials celebrated the incident but Kyiv has not claimed reponsibility.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

Seems plausible, how the explosion played out it must have caused a ton of vibration on both sides of the road bridge, plus the fire damaging the rail bridge.

This should wreak havoc to Russian logistics in the occupied territories in Southern Ukraine, as the rail and road network around Mariupol is under the range of Ukrainian indirect and MRLS fire.

According to https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1580287106064478209, the wait time for vehicles on the Crimea ferry is  reported to be  3-4 days.    See also https://twitter.com/BenDoBrown/status/1580385992791334912
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 14, 2022, 10:37:44 AM
Uh Oh. Looks like some Russians are gonna be short some ass-wipe.  #:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 10:40:10 AM
they are the ass wipe.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 14, 2022, 11:10:07 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 08:01:09 AM
it was a typical land attack cruise missile that only going 450 to 500 mph in a straight line.  great shot by the manpads and good on him being in the right place at the right time but not a difficult kill with everything being in place.

I think no matter how you slice it, this was an amazing accomplishment. As a onetime trap and skeet shooter I know the difficulties.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 14, 2022, 11:28:48 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on October 14, 2022, 10:23:34 AM
the wait time for vehicles on the Crimea ferry is  reported to be  3-4 days.   

But is that better or worse than before by Russian standards  8) ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 14, 2022, 11:36:30 AM
Good point.  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 12:39:34 PM
well elon is certainly being a fucking cunt.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 14, 2022, 12:40:32 PM
Yeah I was gonna say....

In an apparent bid to remain the most unlikable public figure who still actively supports Ukraine, Musk decided it's time for the taxpayers to foot the bill for Starlink  :bd:

Nevermind that he's still making money off Ukrainians being charged for Starlink service!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 14, 2022, 12:47:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 12:39:34 PM
well elon is certainly being a fucking cunt.

Tomorrow he will deny this  >:D.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 01:01:26 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 14, 2022, 12:40:32 PM
Yeah I was gonna say....

In an apparent bid to remain the most unlikable public figure who still actively supports Ukraine, Musk decided it's time for the taxpayers to foot the bill for Starlink  :bd:

Nevermind that he's still making money off Ukrainians being charged for Starlink service!

while the Pentagon pays for units and services.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on October 14, 2022, 01:38:37 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on October 12, 2022, 05:19:02 PM
What do T-62s look like with new paint and maybe some bells and whistles for comfort?

We will soon know. Russia is going to working on 800 of them over the next three years.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-to-modernize-800-vintage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report/ar-AA12SQPr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1685c28e29f849e98c8d246a2a68ba2c (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-to-modernize-800-vintage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report/ar-AA12SQPr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1685c28e29f849e98c8d246a2a68ba2c)

The article links to a Russian article that gives a few more details. I was able to read it with MS Edge's translate feature:
https://anna-news.info/deputat-guravlev-800-tankov-t-62-popolnyat-rossijskuyu-armiyu-v-techenii-3-let/ (https://anna-news.info/deputat-guravlev-800-tankov-t-62-popolnyat-rossijskuyu-armiyu-v-techenii-3-let/)
Interesting point someone showed was that the T62 does not have a loader
So they will have to train loaders and the crew (if there even is training) without having any institutional knowledge on how to do this.  It might seem trivial but loading is a skill as is a competent crew.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on October 14, 2022, 01:40:25 PM
Best caption I saw for this pic is

The Devil on my shoulder convincing me to order another drink

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2022, 01:11:00 AM
meanwhile in russia....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe4mqKAXgAAuV1y?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 14, 2022, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 01:01:26 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 14, 2022, 12:40:32 PM
Yeah I was gonna say....

In an apparent bid to remain the most unlikable public figure who still actively supports Ukraine, Musk decided it's time for the taxpayers to foot the bill for Starlink  :bd:

Nevermind that he's still making money off Ukrainians being charged for Starlink service!

while the Pentagon pays for units and services.....

I don't have a problem with SpaceX getting paid, particularly since the service is so important to the Ukrainian resistance.

But I don't know how fair SpaceX's demand is. Is it a fair price for the service? or are they taking advantage of the situation and price gouging?

If price gouging, this is not going to be good for Ukraine, the US or even Musk. SpaceX is a US Government contractor servicing several parts of the Government, and those contracts are worth billions. Price gouging may put SpaceX in the US Government contractor penalty box...stupid move Mr. Musk. 

But the really stupid thing about this is that Musk and his crew could have handled the situation so much better. Take Lockheed. Those guys are raking in the bucks for missiles used by the Ukraine, and everybody loves their stuff and doesn't complain about the price (at least not yet).

But you don't see Lockheed doing the dumb messaging that SpaceX just pulled; saying things like, 'send us money or we don't send any more missiles to Ukraine.'

Musks ultra brash approach to business is starting to have some negative consequences for him...his Twitter take-over fiasco is a good example. But I guess Musk just doesn't really care in the end...he probably just enjoys the publicity.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 14, 2022, 03:53:27 PM
Musk is an amazingly lucky idiot up to this point.

Tesla is millions in the red and has been for years.  Musk is on the hook, whether he buys Twitter or not, for millions either way he goes in that direction.  The Hyperloop idea is a goddam joke (and I don't think any cities are really biting at that one), and that is just off the top of my head.

Tesla/Musk has said electric trucks, both small and semi-flavored, are coming but haven't made it past concept yet.  Meanwhile, for folks, Ford has the Lightning (and there are probably more out there by other companies), and check out a group from Canada called Edison Motors and their approach to hybrid diesel/electric semis - they went from paper concept to rolling example just this past year.  Still no Tesla trucks.

Musk must have some seriously competent people keeping him from the deep end of the pool and trying to create an underwater toaster, but just a matter of time before they dip on out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Ubercat on October 14, 2022, 04:57:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 12:39:34 PM
well elon is certainly being a fucking cunt.

Maybe because they told him to F off? I wouldn't be inclined to help folks who acted like that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 14, 2022, 05:46:34 PM
Quote from: Ubercat on October 14, 2022, 04:57:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 12:39:34 PM
well elon is certainly being a fucking cunt.

Maybe because they told him to F off? I wouldn't be inclined to help folks who acted like that.

Conversely, he shouldn't be butting into a situation that he has no grasp of or stake in outside of money, ostensibly.  Recall his stellar hot takes on rescuing the soccer team in the flooded caves and the people that managed to do it.  He has the ability, for good or ill, to shake things around just by tweeting about it.  Makes me shudder to think how he'll cock Twitter up once it's in his sweaty mitts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Ubercat on October 14, 2022, 05:52:36 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on October 14, 2022, 05:46:34 PM
Quote from: Ubercat on October 14, 2022, 04:57:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 12:39:34 PM
well elon is certainly being a fucking cunt.

Maybe because they told him to F off? I wouldn't be inclined to help folks who acted like that.

Conversely, he shouldn't be butting into a situation that he has no grasp of or stake in outside of money, ostensibly.  Recall his stellar hot takes on rescuing the soccer team in the flooded caves and the people that managed to do it.  He has the ability, for good or ill, to shake things around just by tweeting about it.  Makes me shudder to think how he'll cock Twitter up once it's in his sweaty mitts.

Speaking of Twitter, it would certainly be great to see it not so ... politically unbalanced. I think he'd do a great job with it. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 14, 2022, 06:17:24 PM
^ This is getting dangerously close to R&P turf.  Please don't continue this line of discussion while R&P is shut down.   C:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Ubercat on October 14, 2022, 06:57:46 PM
That's why I was being discrete.  ;)

Speaking of Musk, I have to give him credit for something else. He thoroughly recognizes the inherent threat of AI development. We should have an AI thread in the forum. The stuff that's going on now is exciting and utterly terrifying. We seem to be on the cusp of either Skynet or actual utopia. I'm fearful that we're more likely to get the former.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 14, 2022, 07:42:10 PM
Thanks for the remind.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 14, 2022, 09:48:38 PM
Honestly, I kind of think the guy is just a billionaire who also happens to be an internet troll.  He loves to be at the center of the attention, and he has a talent for saying and doing things that will keep him at the center of attention.  A fawning media plays it all up, because whether people love him or hate him, they still follow articles on what he says, and that's how websites sell advertising on the Internet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 15, 2022, 07:55:15 AM
Musk's IQ is 155. For reference, Albert Einstein was 160. Musk is more than "just a billionaire". Sure, he can be a dick, but so can everybody else posting in this thread. None of us have accomplished anything close to what he has for humanity. So go ahead...keep throwing stones.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: undercovergeek on October 15, 2022, 08:27:18 AM
We can all feel the love until he switches the interwebs off
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 15, 2022, 11:59:30 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 15, 2022, 07:55:15 AM
Musk's IQ is 155. For reference, Albert Einstein was 160.

As far as I understood and some searching seems to confirm, neither of them ever had their IQ's officially tested.

Nor is IQ really something I feel should be adhered to as something particularly special.  One of my most, brilliant and accomplished professors that I worked with regularly bragged that his IQ was just a bit below 90.

Hell, when I had mine measured at my parents extreme insistence and pressure, I was 150, shy of my mother's 155 that she was brutally proud of.  What does that mean for me?  Absolutely nothing except maybe I had a lot of very unfair expectations put on me for a long time and I have a hard time keeping my thoughts straight.

That said, I don't think anyone's disputing Musk's intellect.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 15, 2022, 12:04:23 PM
If IQ isn't good enough, look as his accomplishments. They speak for themselves.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 15, 2022, 12:09:35 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 15, 2022, 12:04:23 PM
If IQ isn't good enough, look as his accomplishments. They speak for themselves.

I'm not disputing those.

I'm not really one to bash Musk.  I have a mixed opinion of him that varies on subject. 

I'm especially with him on his devotion to space exploration and expansion of technology. 

Anyway, that's as far as I'll go on the subject of him unless he does something else relevant to the topic.  I'll ruin my sterling reputation of always being 100% on topic and never turning the conversation to dongles or Grogheads Front Page Denialism.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 15, 2022, 12:25:22 PM
I've seen people trying to prove by photographic evidence that the Groghead Front Page is flat, but I can easily disprove that using geometry on their own photos.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 15, 2022, 01:14:03 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 15, 2022, 07:55:15 AM
Sure, he can be a dick, but so can everybody else posting in this thread.

In fairness to us, I think Musk's assholery extends well beyond what any of us Groggies would do (I'd like to think).  The incident with the cave diver who rescued the students springs to mind.  But that's getting beyond the current topic.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 15, 2022, 01:19:34 PM
Meanwhile, I've seen a clip surfacing from back much earlier this year before the invasion, where President Biden in a press conference confidently promising that if Russia invades Ukraine (at least with tanks and jets and other 'hard' hardware, not just infantry), the US will take out the Nordstream pipelines. When questioned how we would do that since it doesn't belong to us, he reiterated that we can and will do it.

So. ...I mean, he (and his administration) can deny we did it all day long, but he said he was going to do it, so that's motive as well as means and opportunity. At this point it would be necessary to prove the United States didn't do it.  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 15, 2022, 02:07:02 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 15, 2022, 01:19:34 PM
Meanwhile, I've seen a clip surfacing from back much earlier this year before the invasion, where President Biden in a press conference confidently promising that if Russia invades Ukraine (at least with tanks and jets and other 'hard' hardware, not just infantry), the US will take out the Nordstream pipelines. When questioned how we would do that since it doesn't belong to us, he reiterated that we can and will do it.

So. ...I mean, he (and his administration) can deny we did it all day long, but he said he was going to do it, so that's motive as well as means and opportunity. At this point it would be necessary to prove the United States didn't do it.  :o
And then there's this:
https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-biden-did-not-threaten-to-sabotage-nord-stream-pipelines-as-russian-disinfo-claims/6770228.html

"Germany had frozen completion of the newer Nord Stream 2 project just days before Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

But it was weeks before then that Biden, at the White House with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, was asked if Germany would "pull the plug" on Nord Stream 2 "if Russia invades Ukraine."

In that event, Biden said, "There will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

Scholz added, "[W]e have intensively prepared everything to be ready with the necessary sanctions if there is a military aggression against Ukraine."

So, the context was about whether Germany and the U.S. would block the project to bring economic pressure to bear on Russia, which prior to the war provided half of Germany's natural gas (and 40 percent of Europe's, much of it transiting Ukraine).

Pulling the plug is entirely different from blowing things up.

On February 23, after Russia's "recognition of independence" of two breakaway Ukrainian regions in Donbas, Germany halted the licensing and certification of Nord Stream 2, and the U.S. announced new sanctions on the pipeline and its partners.

As Biden promised, that shut down the project."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 15, 2022, 03:22:15 PM
seems the Pentagon had a quiet word with Elon.

QuoteElon Musk
@elonmusk
·
2h
The hell with it ... even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we'll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free

dont worry, he's still getting his money.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 15, 2022, 04:05:37 PM
From CNN:

Gunmen kill at least 11 people in attack on Russian military recruits, Russia's state media reports

From CNN's Mariya Knight

Two gunmen opened fire on Russian military recruits at a training ground in Russia's Belgorod region, killing at least 11 people and wounding another 15, Russia's state news agency TASS reports.

The attack happened Saturday during a training session at the Western Military District, according to TASS, which cited the Russian Defense Ministry. The gunmen were said to be from former Soviet states. Russian officials have branded the attack an act of terrorism.

"As a result of a terrorist attack at a military training ground in the Belgorod region, 11 people were killed, 15 were injured and are receiving medical assistance," TASS reported.

"The incident occurred during a shooting training session with volunteers preparing for a special operation. The terrorists attacked the personnel of the unit with small-arms fire."

According to TASS, two individuals who committed the "terrorist act" were killed in retaliatory fire at the training ground.

The Belgorod region is in western Russia on the border with Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 15, 2022, 07:30:40 PM
Ever since Russian missiles started falling out of the sky on Ukrainian cities, it's interesting to me that news of ground combat in Ukraine has all but halted.  I'm not sure if there's been another lull in the fighting, or if the media has just grown distracted and the fog of war is blowing back onto events in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

Musk has done a ton of things and has been a very successful businessman.  My brother swears by the Tesla he's been driving for 3 or 4 years now and I'm seriously contemplating getting one myself whenever my 2006 Honda Accord finally gives up the ghost.  I don't know him and have no real opinion on the guy other than what I know of his public persona.  I just think he's an eccentric, sometimes self-important dude who talks a lot about things he doesn't always know much about.  He's also been given a lot more attention by the media than he really deserves, because he says the stuff he does.

I probably think about him less often than I think about oats and nuts blended into my wheat bread, but I probably also think about food more than a lot of people.  I have nothing personally against the guy, because I don't know him. 

I'd second Andrew's observations on IQ.  That takes nothing away from the fact that Elon Musk has earned about $222,000,000,000 more in his life than I have, give or take!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 15, 2022, 07:40:54 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 15, 2022, 04:05:37 PM
From CNN:

Gunmen kill at least 11 people in attack on Russian military recruits, Russia's state media reports

From CNN's Mariya Knight

Two gunmen opened fire on Russian military recruits at a training ground in Russia's Belgorod region, killing at least 11 people and wounding another 15, Russia's state news agency TASS reports.

The attack happened Saturday during a training session at the Western Military District, according to TASS, which cited the Russian Defense Ministry. The gunmen were said to be from former Soviet states. Russian officials have branded the attack an act of terrorism.

"As a result of a terrorist attack at a military training ground in the Belgorod region, 11 people were killed, 15 were injured and are receiving medical assistance," TASS reported.

"The incident occurred during a shooting training session with volunteers preparing for a special operation. The terrorists attacked the personnel of the unit with small-arms fire."

According to TASS, two individuals who committed the "terrorist act" were killed in retaliatory fire at the training ground.

The Belgorod region is in western Russia on the border with Ukraine.

Bits I heard about this were that the "terrorists," were conscripts having beef with other conscripts. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 15, 2022, 07:52:53 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 15, 2022, 07:30:40 PM
Ever since Russian missiles started falling out of the sky on Ukrainian cities, it's interesting to me that news of ground combat in Ukraine has all but halted. 

It hasn't really halted. 

The UAF has been keeping significant pressure along the line, but haven't been pushing for major advances.

They've largely been consolidating as the previous phase of their attacks succeeded.  They needed time once over the Oskil and with Lyman in hand to let their logistics catch up.  The bridges over the Oskil are gone and therefore they needed time to consolidate for further pushes.  They're in a good position for a push on Svatove.

The Russians went on a counterattack in the south end of the line that had some success.   Still, their most effective troops in the area, PMC Wagner, is still caught doing its own thing driving on the strategically unimportant city of Bakhmut.  Their attacks there are largely driven by the fact that Wagner contractors are paid bonuses on ground taken, so they're incentivized to attack areas where they can advance rather than follow orders from Russian command to go where they're needed.

In the south the UAF suffered from its own success advancing so quickly they had to do operational halts to let their lines catch up.  That gave the VDV time to plug gaps in the line and establish a defense.  However, the Russians seem to realize that the situation north of the Dniper is untenable and are starting to evacuate its Russian supporter population.

So, stagnant?  Yes, but only insofar as things were stagnant for a couple of weeks prior to the Lyman push.  I imagine there's significant CnC issues due to the attacks as well, but you can also read this as the UAF being smart and playing the logistics long game and not overextending themselves. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a renewed attack soon with the main objective in the north being Svatove and Kreminna and another attempt to find cracks in the line in the south to keep rolling up the Dniper. 

Also, don't be surprised if the UAF launches an attack in an unexpected direction along quieter parts of the front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 15, 2022, 08:41:14 PM
so much for static, seems the UAF have had a very busy day in the south.

found this today:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfIuTDMWIAAGGox?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 16, 2022, 01:16:55 AM
good read

https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/a-tale-of-two-generals-how-the-ukrainian-military-turned-the-tide/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 16, 2022, 01:20:02 AM
so at what point does the compression of russian lines lead to a front not worth breaking for now?
kind of a Courland pocket maybe?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfIpdtHXgAMqBuQ?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 16, 2022, 06:52:28 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on October 14, 2022, 12:47:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2022, 12:39:34 PM
well elon is certainly being a fucking cunt.

Tomorrow he will deny this  >:D.

Elon Musk @elonmusk

The hell with it ... even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we'll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free
8:06 PM · Oct 15, 2022

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1581345747777179651?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: undercovergeek on October 16, 2022, 07:26:00 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63255617

I'm guessing - no more strikes for now actually means we've run out of shit to shoot at you
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 16, 2022, 08:26:07 AM
not for long:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/16/iran-russia-missiles-ukraine/

this is one of the reasons for the saudis approving aid to Ukraine and Israel is going to follow soon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 16, 2022, 08:33:24 AM
Quote from: undercovergeek on October 16, 2022, 07:26:00 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63255617

I'm guessing - no more strikes for now actually means we've run out of shit to shoot at you

  I guess.  Having read the article and having seen accounts of rumors that the Russians would like to get a ceasefire right about now so as to hold on to their gains and prepare to strike again once they
have reorganized -- I wonder if the Russians might actually want a ceasefire.  But that seems so rational as to seem impossible for them to consider.  Anyway, how can they get a ceasefire?  It looks like the
Ukrainians can keep pushing right on while the Russians do what?  dial back their threats?  You know, threatening to nuke the world is a surprisingly bad way to convince the world that they should let you
get a ceasefire so that you can attack them again.  Messing around in Belarus doesn't sound like a convincing way to show its worth giving you a ceasefire and now Putin says he doesn't want to destroy
Ukraine.  Well...as always...the question remains would he be happy to keep what he as seized?  seemingly not since it seems likely the Russians are going through some kind of attempt to seem rational while they get ready to attack again (ceasefire or no).  And what a bad job of appearing rational! 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 16, 2022, 03:40:06 PM
Imagine the optics of Iranians teaching Russians the tech of using ballistic missiles.  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 16, 2022, 06:43:31 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on October 15, 2022, 02:07:02 PM
As Biden promised, that shut down the project."

Ah! -- good, a little more boring, but good!  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 17, 2022, 02:57:35 PM
I know Star's go-to phrase is usually F Russia but F Iran too. The toppling of that gov't can't come soon enough:

Video of Iranian Drones Hitting Kiev:
https://nyti.ms/3yQx9p5
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 17, 2022, 03:43:41 PM
And from the BBC, Russian warplane goes down, hits Russian apartment building:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63292320
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 17, 2022, 05:17:58 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfSDbEeXwAAxs_w?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 17, 2022, 05:59:57 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 17, 2022, 03:43:41 PM
And from the BBC, Russian warplane goes down, hits Russian apartment building:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63292320

Ukraine no doubt blamed.  :-[
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 17, 2022, 06:20:16 PM
Ive seen a few videos and it looks like the engines flamed out at low altitude.  why he was flying that low in the first place is a mystery.  this happened in Yeysk, russia, maybe a few hundred miles behind the front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 17, 2022, 07:08:59 PM
well elon wont shut up about the risk of backing russia into a corner where they use nukes.
and the internet is gladly pointing out that the russians can just leave anytime they want.
or maybe, just maybe.... he needs to lay low for russia so he can get access to the rare earth metals he needs for tesla batteries.   :-"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 17, 2022, 07:27:12 PM
Anyone that watches Denys Davydov's videos should tune in to tonight's. 

Crap got real, missiles hit the civilian neighborhood where he lives.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2022, 12:54:12 AM
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-making-excuses-for-not-stopping-us-himars-in-ukraine-2022-10?fbclid=IwAR1aD8X9Qe2aSqdqWr1rnyiXCZD81HD8mHrr2OXzBDu__cuG-49-dKRWzd4
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2022, 02:08:19 PM
be happy the soviets arent sending these people to the front!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1582029355488014336

that poor guy!   :(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2022, 02:08:54 PM
lets talk about EMP!   <:-)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1581482969306304512.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 18, 2022, 03:12:58 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 17, 2022, 03:43:41 PM
And from the BBC, Russian warplane goes down, hits Russian apartment building:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63292320

  It's weird that they aren't blaming this on somebody far away from the event.  Which reminds me, in other news (all from the CNN series today) Russia just wants a friendly Ukraine that has nothing to
do with the West or NATO.  I guess that's not very likely once you've been attacking them for the last 8 years or so.  Russia also remarked that it was pointless to do anything diplomatic with the West.
And of course "The Anglo-Saxons" blew up the pipeline in the Baltic (but apparently not the Frisians the Jutes or the Hwicca?  I guess you get the tribes you hate most when it comes to imagining them
blowing up the stuff you can't admit that you blew up).  I'm still amazed at how pathetic the Russians have become -- shooting random stuff at power grids and cities, just wanting a friendly Ukraine.  I guess they can just go on sinking lower and lower for quite a while.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2022, 03:21:44 PM
kind of hard to blame it on someone else when the pilot stated the plane just failed, a statement he made right after ejecting and the crash site is hundreds of miles from the front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 18, 2022, 03:22:43 PM
You say that like "facts" and "logic" normally factor into Russian thinking.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2022, 03:36:13 PM
they absolutely dont but this video was one of the faster spreading ones and there was no way to get ahead of it.
imo
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 18, 2022, 03:49:40 PM
No, I'm still surprised the Russians didn't appeal to "sabotage". Maybe they thought that would look worse for them...?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2022, 04:21:31 PM
they havent appealed to it yet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 18, 2022, 07:57:13 PM
Iran has sent 'advisors' or 'trainers' to Crimea to teach Russian troops to use drones, from CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/18/politics/iran-trainers-crimea-drones/index.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2022, 08:14:01 PM
and so, hopefully, the fracturing begins.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1582509984360804352
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 18, 2022, 08:51:16 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2022, 08:14:01 PM
and so, hopefully, the fracturing begins.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1582509984360804352

There's no fracturing there. 

Nikolay Rybakov is the leader of the pro-reform Yabloko party.  Boris Nadezhdin is a former Duma member who opposed the invasion, he's currently under investigation and stands to possibly be arrested.  Both are key opponents to Putin, known to be so, and almost never get invited on platforms like this. 

The entire show was theater, they were there to be set up.  They showed a salacious video of Russians executing Ukrainian civilians.  They directly lied and said the video was Ukrainians executing Russians.   The platform was then to bait Rybakov and Nadezhdin to continuing to call for negotiations and peace, so the rest of the hosts could tear into them and make a public mockery of anyone that dares suggest anything but the complete destruction of Ukraine militarily and peace only achieved through capitulation. 

It also has the secondary benefit to try to put the two of them in position to be fully labeled as enemy agents and peddlers of disinformation for outside actors.  The two of them likely assured they're about to be arrested by not backing down in a public forum.   If they're lucky they'll just get house arrest, a ban from being allowed on any media, and the requirement to register as enemy media propagandists, which is kind of akin to becoming a sex offender.  They'll have to lead with that label anywhere they go and it'll prevent them from having any official legal jobs and roles even within their own parties.

Total hit job and how Russian propaganda is fighting back against any calls to negotiate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 18, 2022, 08:54:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2022, 04:21:31 PM
they havent appealed to it yet.

Yet is a very important Russian word indeed!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2022, 09:21:57 PM
Danke for the clarification Andrew.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 19, 2022, 07:15:58 AM
"Hard decisions must be made," says the new general in charge of the Russian Special Operation:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-general-prepares-kherson-surrender-hard-decisions-must-be-made/ar-AA138mLC?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=7f2f9f08dbf94cd6be58ccdc05dd39ad

Such as:

1.) Do we outright surrender Kherson back to the Uks, or pretend we didn't surrender it while running away?

2.) Should we just go home and stop bothering other people for a while...? -- wait, that isn't a hard decision. ;)

3.) Are windows drafty this time of year, or should I be gardening in the second half of a Russian October?  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 19, 2022, 08:23:36 AM
In a move that shocks absolutely no one in the history of ever, Putin has declared martial law in his four recently illegally annexed regions:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-live-briefing-putin-declares-martial-law-in-four-illegally-annexed-regions-of-ukraine/ar-AA137YhQ?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=08bc1d664d7440988245bcb132e1e9ac

No need to declare martial law in the Crimea, I suppose, since he has been controlling that directly already for a while.  :P

Technically this means that Russia will put those regions under military governorship, making them into special (i.e. frontline not interior) military districts -- I would guess Crimea has been that way for years now already.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 19, 2022, 10:00:26 AM
^ He has no choice.  The other leadership is running.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-puppet-leaders-in-kherson-flee-approaching-ukrainian-troops

Moscow-appointed officials occupying a key city in Ukraine are getting out of dodge and urging residents to evacuate ahead of a feared counter-offensive by Ukrainian troops to retake the southern city of Kherson.
Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the local Kremlin-controlled administration, used a video appeal to urge residents in the occupied city to evacuate as Russian forces have been pushed back between 13 and 20 miles in the area over the last few weeks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 10:03:17 AM
a bit on russian rail problems:

https://www.railway.supply/en/russian-railway-is-on-the-verge-of-collapse/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 19, 2022, 10:20:52 AM
I hope this news blackout is indicative of some significant gains by the Ukraine in what ever offensive they have going.
Fingers crossed that the weather still permits the UAF use of secondary roads, which in my opinion are critical in their style of flanking, maneuvering, highly mobile, operations.

I wonder though, when the Soviets start to run out of retreating room, what they are going to do?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 19, 2022, 10:39:58 AM
Can't find it at the moment, but this is where the gif would go from The Last Starfighter at the climactic defeat of the invaders:

bleeeeeeep -- "We die."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 19, 2022, 10:42:31 AM
Quote from: Windigo on October 19, 2022, 10:20:52 AM
I wonder though, when the Soviets start to run out of retreating room, what they are going to do?

Entrench, baby, and fix bayonets!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 19, 2022, 10:46:12 AM
More seriously, let's see... they might try to spin their stiffening line as a victory? Something like, "We launched our special operation to uncover and expose to the world the viciously overpowered NATO connections being built by Anglo-Saxons in the Ukrainian region, and having achieved this bloody victory we have pulled back to an unbreakable defensive line and halted our defensive pre-emptory counter-attack! Glory to Russia! Behold the Nazi evil! -- the world must join us in resisting this depravity before it's too late!"

And then point continuously at the World Economic Forum's 4th Economic Revolution (or whatever they're calling it, aka "The Great Reset") like Donald Sutherland at the end of the 1970s Invasion of the Body Snatchers, since the WEF has been angling to use Ukraine for its purposes. Which Putin has been opposing because he wants to be the one to take over the world, or at least Europe, or at least Eastern Europe, and he does not share power. ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 19, 2022, 12:15:11 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on October 19, 2022, 10:42:31 AM
Quote from: Windigo on October 19, 2022, 10:20:52 AM
I wonder though, when the Soviets start to run out of retreating room, what they are going to do?

Entrench, baby, and fix bayonets!

They'll be allowed to starve to death, when they do that, I imagine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 12:36:22 PM
seems the soviets are getting ready to abandon the west bank of the Dnipro River which effectively concedes Kherson back to the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 19, 2022, 12:40:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 12:36:22 PM
seems the soviets are getting ready to abandon the west bank of the Dnipro River which effectively concedes Kherson back to the Ukraine.

They're definitely preparing to pull back but don't be shocked if they don't put plenty of speedbumps in the UAF's way, and possibly make them bleed for Kherson. 

A couple of western milbloggers this morning were saying there were at least some indications the Russians were fortifying Kherson itself in order to force the UAF to level parts of their own city to take it back. 



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 19, 2022, 01:02:11 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 19, 2022, 12:40:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 12:36:22 PM
seems the soviets are getting ready to abandon the west bank of the Dnipro River which effectively concedes Kherson back to the Ukraine.

They're definitely preparing to pull back but don't be shocked if they don't put plenty of speedbumps in the UAF's way, and possibly make them bleed for Kherson. 

A couple of western milbloggers this morning were saying there were at least some indications the Russians were fortifying Kherson itself in order to force the UAF to level parts of their own city to take it back.

Lay siege to the city, starve the Russians out - while letting them know they will be the ones clearing all munitions/mines/IEDs from the city post-surrender. Even orcs will know what that means.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 01:15:57 PM
putin and nukes:

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 19, 2022, 06:23:27 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 19, 2022, 12:40:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 12:36:22 PM
seems the soviets are getting ready to abandon the west bank of the Dnipro River which effectively concedes Kherson back to the Ukraine.

They're definitely preparing to pull back but don't be shocked if they don't put plenty of speedbumps in the UAF's way, and possibly make them bleed for Kherson. 

A couple of western milbloggers this morning were saying there were at least some indications the Russians were fortifying Kherson itself in order to force the UAF to level parts of their own city to take it back.

Island hop that bitch - but easier said than done all things considering; do not wish that kind of attrition war on anyone.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 19, 2022, 06:50:12 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on October 19, 2022, 06:23:27 PM
Island hop that bitch - but easier said than done all things considering; do not wish that kind of attrition war on anyone.

Attrition warfare is just what the Russians are aiming for as their next steps. 

They seem to have established at least some kind of coherent plan of defense that will invite the UAF to attack heavily prepared defenses. 

In the north they're now establishing what they're calling the "Wagner Line" that is largely being built by PMC Wagner contractors and contract engineers and will be manned by Wagner troops. 

The line is going to be a heavy fortification behind the Siversk-Donets river, running all across the Luhansk border, anchored by Lysychansk all the way across to Luhansk city. 

This seems to mean that the Russians are about to significantly shorten their lines and possibly abandon Svatove and Starbolisk.  They'll lose two key logistics and rail hubs, but they'll be able to redeploy a large portions of their troops in the north, likely quite a bit of them for refit and rearming using newly mobilized troops. 

They also just repaired the Anatovsky bridge in Kherson with improvised ferries, so they can at least supply forces locally in Kherson itself.  With the bridge up and ferries, they'll probably be able to keep the city in supply as long as they reduce the line and pull back most of the 25k troops north of the Dniper.  That seems to be what they're doing, leaving forces in the city and keeping some bridgehead, while removing thousands of civilians that would just be extra mouths to feed.

With their backs to the river it'll be hard, even when the freeze comes, for the UAF to get across and surround the city.

It's strongly looking like the Russians are going to dig in for the winter and bring more reserves online.  They probably expect that once spring rolls around, they'll have half a million or more men in position for renewed pushes in the quieter parts of the line that haven't seen a lot of action. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 07:34:00 PM
Khersons on the west bank so no river for the AFU to cross but it will still be a grind.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 07:38:00 PM
this is supposedly the concept of the wagner line.
video of some construction:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1579975702853869568


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffd0EUUWYAE90cm?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 19, 2022, 07:46:45 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 07:34:00 PM
Khersons on the west bank so no river for the AFU to cross but it will still be a grind.

I was referring to the idea that the UAF could surround Kherson and lay siege.  It'll be hard with the Russians having a fortified perimeter with the river at their backs.  To cut off the Russian line of supply completely they'd have to slog up the riverbank into urban areas. That's if the Russians truly decide to try to hold it. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 19, 2022, 08:42:35 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 07:38:00 PM
this is supposedly the concept of the wagner line.
video of some construction:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1579975702853869568


Reminds me of the Kriemhilde Stellung. The Allies cracked that one in 1918, and they didn't even have bulldozers.

Ukraine just needs some M9 ACEs (armored bulldozers)... hmmm... were any included in the NATO arms shipments?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on October 19, 2022, 10:24:54 PM
Any supply line in range of Ukranian artillery and HIMARS isn't going to be a supply line at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 20, 2022, 05:49:13 AM
From an interview with a local intelligence expert:

Various media – not the least – and unnamed well-informed sources believe that Putin is seriously ill.  "It's true," says Lasoen. Putin has prostate cancer, a severe form. He's really not doing well. That's something that's known to intelligence agencies, and I got it from outside sources, which are very reliable. His days are numbered."


Whether this is good or bad news ...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 20, 2022, 06:37:51 AM
^My initial reaction is that is awesome news. After thinking about it for a minute, 'the devil you know' comes to mind. When Putin dies could Russia and the world end up with something worse?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 20, 2022, 07:14:19 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 19, 2022, 06:50:12 PMIn the north they're now establishing what they're calling the "Wagner Line" that is largely being built by PMC Wagner contractors and contract engineers and will be manned by Wagner troops.

"But ve svear, ve are NOT ze Nazis!"  ::)

The good news is that Wagner troops are paid bonuses for land they take, so they'll have mercenary motivation to break their own defense to go capture areas -- which has proven to be a problem for them in the past.  O0

QuoteIt's strongly looking like the Russians are going to dig in for the winter and bring more reserves online.  They probably expect that once spring rolls around, they'll have half a million or more men in position for renewed pushes in the quieter parts of the line that haven't seen a lot of action.

"Say, Comrade, does that rifle date back to the Great Patriotic War?"

"Nope." {spits} "Back to the Revolution." {/Matewanreference}

"Better than no rifle at all, eh Comrade?"

"As long as they pretend to rearm and refit us, we will pretend to fight!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 20, 2022, 07:41:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2022, 01:15:57 PM
putin and nukes:

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/

While I like that article, I noticed that Professor London left out one crucial factor in Putin's behavior: his deteriorating health.

Of course, maybe this is L's way of tacitly denying there's any such problem; but if so, he would have been better off mentioning that factor in order to dismiss its reality. (Unless there is something important to protect in not dismissing that factor?? Maybe source-protection...?)

Anyway, if Putin's health is a factor, that's going to affect the rest of L's otherwise (I agree) accurate analysis.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 20, 2022, 10:55:47 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/the-russians-are-losing-10-tanks-a-day-as-the-ukrainians-advance/ar-AA13bfYa?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=a2a7e007f1e84f2291be1c7b861ecc85

Don't worry, the UAF has only been losing 2 a day on average in the past six weeks. Up from 1 a day on average in the war period before then (mostly T-62s).

Information at the end of the article clarifies that this average Russian loss does NOT factor in the tanks Ukraine has been capturing in more-or-less working order from the Orcs -- including what looks to me like 20% of their T-90s so far!  :D

(The article's main image features a captured T-90 in Uk service btw.)

Indeed, the average loss for the Ukrainians since September 1st has been a net negative-loss, i.e. a net gain, thanks to overrunning and incorporating Russian tanks: 71 lost,  but captured 194. (About 42% of lost Russian tanks since the war started were not destroyed.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 20, 2022, 11:02:19 AM
Bring back the T-34's!   :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 20, 2022, 11:25:08 AM
Quote from: nelmsm on October 19, 2022, 10:24:54 PM
Any supply line in range of Ukranian artillery and HIMARS isn't going to be a supply line at all.

Yeah.  Ferries seem unlikely to last very long if they come within range of artillery.  And naval supply caches adjacent to ferry landings seem even easier to target.

That's not to say that the Russians won't be able to continue to get ammunition and food across the river.  But I think they'll be limited as to how much they can get.  That will limit how many soldiers they can keep on that side of the river.  I agree that a bloody slugfest in the streets of Kherson seems to be what the Russians are hoping for. 

The Ukrainians will also have to balance the logistical demands of supplying an army versus feeding refugees and liberated civilians who refuse to leave.  I doubt that the Russians will feel similar compunctions.  Of course, the Russians seem to be having all sorts of logistical problems even before the roads turn muddy and the weather turns cold. 

Does anybody know enough about Ukrainian weather to tell us how long conditions there will make for a hard stop to fighting?  I'm an expert at speculating on that topic, but don't actually have any real info...   ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 20, 2022, 12:26:05 PM
Wesley Clark weighed in on some of the Kherson situation and what the real Russian goals were.

He wasn't sure if the Russians would make an attempt to hold the city.  His impression was that the Russians have finally got it through their head that they needed to preserve some of their trained and experienced formations and hold out for the spring.  At this point the wise choice would be to take the winter to sit behind fortifications and natural obstacles while they trained their conscripts mobilized reserves for Spring Offensives.  However, he doubted the Russians ability to do this based on their extremely weak CnC and lack of a motivated officer corps and pressure from Moscow.

The darker part of his analysis was his justified doubt that the civilian evacuation from Kherson was motivated by humanitarian concerns.  He felt the entire withdrawal was a pretext for removal and resettlement/reeducation of Ukrainians from the annexed territories.  The Russians are circulating very friendly propaganda leaflets for the evacuation, promising hot food, shelter and protection but only on the pretext of "We're All Russian".  He highly doubted that in the future, Ukrainians evacuated to Russian territory would be allowed to return to their former homes in the case of a Russian victory unless they agreed with the sentiment after a period of time in Putin's "Filtration Camps".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 20, 2022, 12:37:39 PM
^Is a Russian winter offensive imminent?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 20, 2022, 12:44:19 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 20, 2022, 12:37:39 PM
^Is a Russian winter offensive imminent?

By all indications the Russians have no combat power to engage in any offensive operations outside possibly PMC Wagner.  So no.

They also stand to have a bad winter because of lack of winter gear. 

Lack of discipline among Russian troops means that there's a ton of cellphone intercepts as they're calling family and friends in the open and describing the situation on the ground.  The latest bunches of those leaked show that Russian soldiers are being ordered to entrench and await withdrawal to prepared defenses.  They also show a large issue with desertion among conscripts mobilized reservists.  One soldier said his understrength Brigade had to be merged with another to maintain operational ability, and they got 65 new mobilized troops as part of that in his battalion.  He said they were there for one day then 63 of them were simply MIA.

The only ones that seem to have the gear and motivation to go on the attack during the winter will be the UAF.   I imagine they'll take advantage of their influx of winter equipment from Canada, Estonia, and others to turn the cold to their advantage on the battlefield. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 20, 2022, 01:07:45 PM
I for one look forward to PMC Wagner going on the offensive just as soon as they've sufficiently dug in their defensive line. Or possibly before then!  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 20, 2022, 01:10:42 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 20, 2022, 01:07:45 PM
I for one look forward to PMC Wagner going on the offensive just as soon as they've sufficiently dug in their defensive line. Or possibly before then!  >:D

I really doubt they'll be the ones to man that line despite reports.

As you said, they're paid for ground gained, they'll likely break with any orders to stay put.   

The line's probably going to get filled with newly mobilized and refitting troops, which doesn't bode well for its defensibility.  I'm also not seeing them building the defense for much more than tank traps and straight trenches.  Those will not be fun to be in under artillery attack.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 20, 2022, 01:26:40 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 20, 2022, 12:44:19 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 20, 2022, 12:37:39 PM
^Is a Russian winter offensive imminent?

By all indications the Russians have no combat power to engage in any offensive operations outside possibly PMC Wagner.  So no.

They also stand to have a bad winter because of lack of winter gear. 

Lack of discipline among Russian troops means that there's a ton of cellphone intercepts as they're calling family and friends in the open and describing the situation on the ground.  The latest bunches of those leaked show that Russian soldiers are being ordered to entrench and await withdrawal to prepared defenses.  They also show a large issue with desertion among conscripts mobilized reservists.  One soldier said his understrength Brigade had to be merged with another to maintain operational ability, and they got 65 new mobilized troops as part of that in his battalion.  He said they were there for one day then 63 of them were simply MIA.

The only ones that seem to have the gear and motivation to go on the attack during the winter will be the UAF.   I imagine they'll take advantage of their influx of winter equipment from Canada, Estonia, and others to turn the cold to their advantage on the battlefield.

I've had the sense that bogus troop counts have been an essential part of the kleptocracy that's lubricated almost every aspect of the Russian military for the last 10 or 20 years.  So long as officers can inflate troop counts with imaginary soldiers, they can pocket the real salaries of those soldiers for themselves.  If the Russians had no idea what their troop counts were during peace time, I have no idea how they'd get much better at that during war time.

My sense is that, with the rise of winter, the Ukrainians might find themselves resorting to more small-unit tactics that they used in the early months of the war.  I have no idea how the terrain in different contested parts of Ukraine might affect the utility of such operations (e.g., it's easier for small units to sneak through woods and hills than to march across 5 miles of wide-open fields).

Given that professionals talk logistics, I do wonder if the Russian progress made during the Summer was largely because of a massive Ukrainian shift from Russian-sourced materiel (e.g., weapons, spare parts, ammo) to Western-sourced materiel.  Building out those complex logistical chains and getting soldiers trained in how to use those new weapons is a HUGE task, and I can't imagine that the Ukes have that all figured out yet, do they?  They're fighting with a mishmash of weapons systems handed to them by numerous NATO countries.

To be sure, man-portable things like Stingers, Javelins, and NLAWS proved critical in helping otherwise lightly-armed Ukrainian units fight Russian armor.  They are easy to use, require little training, and only need a fairly basic logistical chain.  Something like HIMARS packs a pretty heavy punch per pound of logistics, because it's a new and precise weapons system that can do things nothing else in the Uk arsenal can do. 

But what about dumb artillery shells?  Or ammunition and replacement parts for their tanks?  Bullets for their rifles?  Precision weaponry works best in an offensive capacity when it's accompanied by heavy firepower you can lay on front-line positions.  How well-positioned will the Ukes be in that regard by February or March?

It also occurs to me that, while the Ukrainian Army seems to be better motivated than the Russian Army, I have no idea how much of their army today had any formal training prior to February.   Are the Ukes better off to continue to press attacks this winter, or to sit back, regroup and retrain some of their units?  I don't know any of those answers, just asking...

I know that Western militaries have been providing them with more of those things

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 20, 2022, 02:02:42 PM
I would say that the main cause of early Russian progress had more to do with their vast superiority in heavy equipment and fair superiority in manpower that they enjoyed early in the war rather than the UAF having learning curves on the new equipment.

One of the things to note is how different Russian offensives were compared to the UAF offensives.  The Russians immediately bogged down with overrun supply chains, and vulnerable salients.  When they switched tactics, they went to slow, plodding slogs advancing very slowly so that they could set up supply hubs and gradually advance.

The Russian way of war, in many cases is that there is no low level initiative and they rely almost entirely on their higher command for all orders and equipment.  If Russian units have orders to advance, they do until they either burn out or get contrary orders.  If they have no orders they'll fulfill their latest and then wait for more.  The lack of effective Junior Officer command is very telling here.  This has caused huge issues with Russian offensive operations both in Ukraine and in past wars.  You see the same endemic problems in Chechnya and even soviet days.

The UAF has been very smart in how it's advanced.  They've targeted supply hubs, they've had reasonable, seemingly clear goals for their attacks, and importantly they know when to slow down and leave the pressure on the front to their Jr. Officers.  Every time they take a major hub, or a get on the better side of a geographical obstacle, they slow, consolidate, let their supply catch up and distribute captured material. 

Their Jr. Officers take regular inititiave on consolidating their lines, launching small pressure attacks, keeping the Russians regularly on their toes without risking too much.  The radio intercepts show this.  Lots of Russians calling home, bunkered down in houses, trenches, buildings, basements, talking about how they haven't heard from an officer in days and the UAF keep pressuring them.  One of the calls I heard today, the Russian said "They fight like animals, even when they're not advancing they don't stop killing us". 

The UAF was also wise with its mobilzation.  They didn't just shove their reservists into the line right away.  After Kyiv was no longer under pressure they took their time to train, equip and slowly feed troops into either border defense or the front line based on their past training and experience.  By June they had mobilized roughly 700k troops.  By now there are estimates they have roughly 1,000,000 with about half that deployed directly in the fighting as of around August.  That's roughly 6 months of training turnaround.  It was enough Zelensky cancelled the annual conscription drive saying simply "We have enough volunteers in training".

So, that leads me to think the UAF can do some reasonable offensive ops in the winter with proper winterized gear.  The real, damaging cold will come in late November to early December, but fortunately long range weather forecasts as of now are calling for an unusually mild winter there.   

The Russians goal should be to hold as much of their lines by Christmas.  The UAF needs to take advantage of the fall to push those lines and keep the Russians from consolidating enough that they can use what I feel might be an advantage for them in the winter months to further pressure and degrade Russian positions and morale.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 20, 2022, 03:33:39 PM
Makes sense.  The early Russian success was, I think, about the Ukrainians finding their feet (and getting the flood of anti-tank and SAM gear that helped them to offset the initial Russian heavy equipment advantage).  The challenges I'm suggesting with equipment transition didn't come until around the beginning of summer, after the Russians withdrew from near Kyiv. 

The occupation of Lyschansk and the gradual expansion on other fronts did seem to be about Russian artillery superiority and an extraordinary volume of firepower, combined with a methodical, plodding advance.  I just suspect it also happened at a time when the Ukrainians were starting to run low on Russian equipment (artillery shells, as one example) but hadn't yet made a transition to more Western-sourced equipment.  It's a lot easier to lay down a suffocating artillery barrage if you don't have to worry about counter-battery fire...

I've seen the headlines talking about how much captured Russian gear the Ukes have obtained in these last two pushes, and I've got to think that helps.  I'm just wondering how long the supplies of basic Russian ordinance might last for Ukraine?  And how much of the ammunition they fire daily is now coming from the West, versus stocks of Russian supplies that they must be drawing down?

I'm thinking specifically of bullets, artillery shells, and spare parts for fighting vehicles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 20, 2022, 05:57:50 PM
You're correct that the UAF did have shortages of Russian made ammo, and yes it caused issues with their ability to blunt the Russian attacks early in the summer. 

They also had a shortage of actual artillery pieces to provide counterbattery fire and support.  That gap has been closed quite a bit by Western arms and equipment. 

As to what the UAF has now for its Russian era weaponry?  Well, according to them the goals at capturing the major supply hubs like Izium and Lyman were partly objectives to solve that problem.  They obtained a very large amount of captured equipment but most importantly ammo including for their artillery and armored units. 

Now, how long will that last?  Who knows.  As the UAF tries to switch to more NATO equipment that will certainly help things.  There's also quite a few former Warsaw Pact nations that are friendly to them that could provide some help, along with whatever the Ukrainian arms industry can produce for their home grown equipment (they do have some),

A long war could strain their Russian stocks for sure, but the Russians are having similar issues, so it's not an entirely one sided problem. 

There's been more than a few opinions that the war may come down simply to who runs totally out of ammo first.   Neither country really has the industry to keep up with the amount of expenditure that's going on, so I don't know of anyone that's got a definitive answer on that. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2022, 09:16:53 PM
this is a good one of future russian intentions and abilities.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1583256094142476288.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 20, 2022, 09:26:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2022, 09:16:53 PM
this is a good one of future russian intentions and abilities.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1583256094142476288.html

Yeah, that jives with pretty much everything I've been hearing/seeing and guessing at. 

It'd be folly to think Surovikin is as incompetent as his disjointed FSB predecessors.  If they execute the plan they seem to be doing, they could be successful with it.

My hope is the appointment of Surovikin isn't a "General Grant Moment" for the Russians. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2022, 09:28:45 PM
some dispute over when this was but it was russians.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1582882789447172096

I kept wanting to use my keyboard and take control watching this.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 20, 2022, 10:06:57 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 20, 2022, 05:57:50 PM
You're correct that the UAF did have shortages of Russian made ammo, and yes it caused issues with their ability to blunt the Russian attacks early in the summer. 

They also had a shortage of actual artillery pieces to provide counterbattery fire and support.  That gap has been closed quite a bit by Western arms and equipment. 

As to what the UAF has now for its Russian era weaponry?  Well, according to them the goals at capturing the major supply hubs like Izium and Lyman were partly objectives to solve that problem.  They obtained a very large amount of captured equipment but most importantly ammo including for their artillery and armored units. 

Now, how long will that last?  Who knows.  As the UAF tries to switch to more NATO equipment that will certainly help things.  There's also quite a few former Warsaw Pact nations that are friendly to them that could provide some help, along with whatever the Ukrainian arms industry can produce for their home grown equipment (they do have some),

A long war could strain their Russian stocks for sure, but the Russians are having similar issues, so it's not an entirely one sided problem. 

There's been more than a few opinions that the war may come down simply to who runs totally out of ammo first.   Neither country really has the industry to keep up with the amount of expenditure that's going on, so I don't know of anyone that's got a definitive answer on that.

My understanding was that most of their former Warsaw Pact allies had already given most of their Russian stockpiles, but the details there were always extremely vague.  What might happen to specific supplies in the shorter time frame is much harder to predict.  I have a suspicion that Russia (with back-channel support from the Iranians, Chinese, and perhaps Indians) will have a harder time sustaining the current pace of combat than most of Western Europe will supplying Ukraine. 

In 2020, the US spent 10 times as much on defense as Russia did, while Western Europe together spent 5 times as much on defense as Russia did.  Obviously, only a fraction of this can go towards rearming Ukraine.  But my sense is that the Europeans and the US should be easily able to outspend the Russians over the next 18 months, even if they weren't planning to ramp up defense budgets. 

Over the last 70 years, I haven't really trusted Europe to collectively find its own ass with both hands, so nothing is certain.  But on paper, things sure like better for the Ukes long term.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 20, 2022, 10:12:10 PM
The Orcs may not be doing well against the Ukes but they're sure as hell killing a lot of those Sunflowers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2022, 10:30:32 PM
they'll also be fertilizer for the next season.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 21, 2022, 02:35:28 AM
https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/10/20/swedish-speed-cameras-stolen-possibly-for-russian-drones/

The Swedish authorities have been finding vandalized speed cameras for months, writes the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet. It is suspected that Russia uses this flash equipment in drones that the country is deploying during the war in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry previously posted a video online of a crashed Russian drone being taken apart. It showed how a Canon camera was attached to the self-built drone with Velcro. The type of camera was similar to that used in Swedish speed cameras.

Russia would use the drones to locate Ukrainian forces.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 21, 2022, 07:40:36 AM
The ISW was suggesting Wednesday that Putin's administration is setting up a false flag attack involving the Kakhovka Dam, upstream of Kherson. Zelenskyy yesterday reported some more evidence along this line.

The Business Insider article providing context for Zelenskyy's claims yesterday: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelenskyy-says-russia-wired-a-hydroelectric-dam-to-explode-and-flood-80-towns-in-region-it-may-have-to-abandon/ar-AA13dcEJ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cfbda87ac786457ebe1005b4bbbf53f3#image=AA13dNZg|3

The ISW report on Wednesday (lot of us will have seen this already of course, but I hadn't caught up yet) -- the dam-attack preparation is in the 2nd paragraph: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-19

The ISW's most recent report last night, dam (and the mining report) in the first paragraph: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-20
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 21, 2022, 07:58:03 AM
From the Wall Street Journal an hour ago: as the Orcs continue their artillery strikes on civilian targets (and some infrastructure), the Uks have hit the Dnipro river ferry out of Kherson with their own artillery last night: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-strikes-occupied-kherson-as-more-russians-flee/ar-AA13dJJP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6a632c5de63e4be3b4a243092e83d5d7

Russia claims four civilians were killed and 13 others injured, but also said the strike hit at 11pm local time -- in other words, after the military curfew when only Russian military and special-permit collaborators are allowed to travel, especially on the ferry.

Russia itself claimed that the civilians killed and injured in the attack were managers and staff of the recently created Tavira television network, including Russians brought in from state propaganda services two weeks ago, who were evacuating the city. Live by the Russian propaganda, die by the etc.! (I wonder if this also helps explain why the TASS nightly propaganda shows have been missing for several days. Aside from even the hosts becoming super-depressed and despondent on air before they were shut down -- were staff and hosts being moved to Kherson?)


Fortunately, back home a Russian TV pundit admitted on a hot mic last night that everyone knows Russia is using Iranian drones. So maybe he'll be available to reinforce Tavira soon...  >:D https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-strikes-occupied-kherson-as-more-russians-flee/ar-AA13dJJP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6a632c5de63e4be3b4a243092e83d5d7
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 21, 2022, 08:18:34 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 20, 2022, 10:12:10 PM
The Orcs may not be doing well against the Ukes but they're sure as hell killing a lot of those Sunflowers.

  This about sums up my level of comprehension as well.  The whole Iranian drone thing -- why are they bothering to say they aren't providing drones?  And hey, they are more effective than
anything else the Russians seem to have going at the moment.

   AND, the suggestion (by the Ukrainians) that far western Ukraine might be attacked from Belarus is really disturbing, but since it would be a good move (cutting the main supply route into Ukraine)
I would guess the Russians would not really bother -- it makes too much sense! and also might really provoke NATO to undertake a few special operations of their own -- like overrunning Belarus.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 21, 2022, 08:30:26 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 21, 2022, 08:18:34 AM
The whole Iranian drone thing -- why are they bothering to say they aren't providing drones?

They don't want their good image to be damaged  8).


Quote from: MengJiao on October 21, 2022, 08:18:34 AM
And hey, they are more effective than anything else the Russians seem to have going at the moment.

I've read that more than 80% are blown out of the sky.

Now Ukraine knows they are being used and they know they need GPS to fly to target, it won't be long before they jam (with foreign aid) the GPS signal rendering those drones useless.
Also the speed of the drone (180 km/h) makes them easy targets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 21, 2022, 08:56:30 AM
In Putiviet Russia, martial law loots itself if it's too scared to loot you! https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-looting-as-they-flee-zaporizhzhia-kherson-report/ar-AA13b2Ih?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c6c6fc31f0d847a88addfd9a128e12bf

An orc tradition dating back well over a hundred years now, hm...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 21, 2022, 09:00:46 AM
It turns out that trying to mobilize 300,000 troops may perhaps affect a nation's economy, possibly, according to Russia itself!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/putin-called-an-additional-300-000-men-into-the-military-a-month-ago-and-it-s-taking-a-toll-on-the-economy/ar-AA13dtFm?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cfbda87ac786457ebe1005b4bbbf53f3#image=AA13dk47|1

But only possibly.

In other not-news, Russia still doesn't understand economy.  :uglystupid2:


Or maybe they're learning a little? If you don't outfit or supply those 300K troops, then your economy might not be affected much, right...?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-russian-army-has-given-newly-drafted-soldiers-absolutely-no-equipment-forcing-families-to-buy-armor-and-clothing-so-conscripts-have-a-chance-to-come-back/ar-AA13cJQw?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cfbda87ac786457ebe1005b4bbbf53f3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 21, 2022, 10:52:21 AM
In the Shadows of FRIDAY, or, Ukraine

Did not want to steal the thunder at Computer Gaming, and a better match here regardless.

Fresh out today by the old feather head with his band and the Ukrainian Kalush Orchestra.

QuoteCombining the legendary rock song with the unique sound of Ukrainian folk, we created "In The Shadows of Ukraine"

Original lyrics: "They say that I must learn to kill before I can feel safe, but I'd rather kill myself than turn into their slave." - reflects the feelings of Ukrainians during the long war in their country.

Our mission is to let as many people as possible know about this war and the courage of the Ukrainian people. That's why we decided to shoot a video for this song.

We believe that "The sun will rise, and all enemies will disappear".

Glory to Ukraine!



O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 21, 2022, 12:27:24 PM
In this day and age how can fortified lines still be a thing?

Precision munitions mean they will be destroyed.

Also, I am aware of a few sources that say Wagner is having morale issues now and their troop quality is dropping. Once their profitability drops, then what?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 21, 2022, 12:50:44 PM
Quote from: Windigo on October 21, 2022, 12:27:24 PM
In this day and age how can fortified lines still be a thing?

Precision munitions mean they will be destroyed.

Also, I am aware of a few sources that say Wagner is having morale issues now and their troop quality is dropping. Once their profitability drops, then what?

"Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man." - George S. Patton. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 21, 2022, 01:22:30 PM
In lieu of combined arms training, fixed positions are all the Russians are going to have to offer as they get plussed up with those poor conscripted/mobilized fodder folks.

Re: Wagner Group - most recent "Popular Front," podcast covers PMCs and paramilitary groups sent into Ukraine by Russia and is a good listen.  Thought Wagner was a homogeneous organization and the podcast painted them more as a patchwork sort of thing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 21, 2022, 02:39:09 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on October 21, 2022, 01:22:30 PM
In lieu of combined arms training, fixed positions are all the Russians are going to have to offer as they get plussed up with those poor conscripted/mobilized fodder folks.

Re: Wagner Group - most recent "Popular Front," podcast covers PMCs and paramilitary groups sent into Ukraine by Russia and is a good listen.  Thought Wagner was a homogeneous organization and the podcast painted them more as a patchwork sort of thing.

There has been some reporting that Wagner is recruiting among the Russian prisoner population, so the quality of their formations will likely decrease/become more "patchy."  See https://greekreporter.com/2022/09/18/russian-mercenary-group-recruiting-prison/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62922152
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 21, 2022, 02:41:47 PM
You got to admit, standing in a trench is safer than standing in the open!  As was discussed upthread, it seems more like those are anti-tank trenches than anything else.  The lack of any zig-zag pattern means that, once a trenchline is breached, it's easy to shoot up and down the length of the thing.

Or maybe this was just a multimedia production made to inspire the Russian people, many of whom don't seem inclined to ask tough questions of their government broadcasts right now in any event.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 21, 2022, 02:48:01 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 21, 2022, 02:41:47 PM
The lack of any zig-zag pattern means that, once a trenchline is breached, it's easy to shoot up and down the length of the thing.

It's also easy for precision munitions to spread up and down the length of the thing -- as has been seen repeatedly with drone cameras.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 21, 2022, 02:51:52 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 21, 2022, 02:41:47 PM
You got to admit, standing in a trench is safer than standing in the open!  As was discussed upthread, it seems more like those are anti-tank trenches than anything else.  The lack of any zig-zag pattern means that, once a trenchline is breached, it's easy to shoot up and down the length of the thing.

Deffo anti-tank ditches, but they seem to be not wide enough to really stop anything with treads - slow them, yes, and couple ditches with mines and you've got some good area denial going on. 

Lol.  Reminds me back in my Army Engineer days when we were told as heavy equipment operators, "You'll be the only guys with your backs to the enemy as you use your D7s to breach that obstacle and get our M1s through!"  Yeah, puttering about in our unarmored D7s obviously trying to fill in the holes the enemies made had our lifespan down to mere minutes, but they never told you that little bit of info.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 21, 2022, 02:59:21 PM
not your daddys Caterpillar.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/IDF_Caterpillar_D9_in_the_Golan_Heights_%28retouched%29.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 21, 2022, 03:25:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 21, 2022, 02:59:21 PM
not your daddys Caterpillar.

Beefiest ones we ever used were up-armored D7s for anti-mine work circa '05.  Armor package had these narrow, tiny windows where you could just only make out your blade edges up front.  Had radios in them, so your spotter(s) in the Humvee nearby could give you directions.  Biggest sphincter-tightening moment I had was, when spotting and within 10-15 meters of the machine, the dozer uncovered an old Soviet arty round; just grazed right across the top of the thing.  Much rapid evacuation from the area enused.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 21, 2022, 03:48:18 PM
There still remains the challenge of logistics. I am not sure how a force without supply, especially a low-morale force can hold up against even a tepid push/test of defenses.

BTW if the ruskies withdraw under fire, where will they likely go? I mean sooner or later they will run out of room.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 21, 2022, 03:50:57 PM
Carl you used those bulldozers? No wonder your handle is Dammit Carl!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 21, 2022, 04:02:57 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 21, 2022, 03:50:57 PM
Carl you used those bulldozers? No wonder your handle is Dammit Carl!

Nah, never the high-tracked stuff, but just your basic D7s - no armor, no cab, no nothing.  ROPS and a seatbelt topped out the trim package on our stuff.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 21, 2022, 04:41:37 PM
Clearly you were skilled enough not to get...injured.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 21, 2022, 04:44:52 PM
So is all that meshwork to keep the driver from running away? :D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 21, 2022, 05:15:38 PM
Quote from: Windigo on October 21, 2022, 03:48:18 PM
BTW if the ruskies withdraw under fire, where will they likely go? I mean sooner or later they will run out of room.

All the room they need to withdraw, in actual Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 21, 2022, 05:37:32 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 21, 2022, 05:15:38 PM
Quote from: Windigo on October 21, 2022, 03:48:18 PM
BTW if the ruskies withdraw under fire, where will they likely go? I mean sooner or later they will run out of room.

All the room they need to withdraw, in actual Russia.

Not if they keep pulling back southward.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 21, 2022, 06:26:43 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 21, 2022, 04:41:37 PM
Clearly you were skilled enough not to get...injured.

Lol. I was the platoon sergeant, so I got spotter and radio duty - and I'm total shit in a dozer.  Put me in one, tell me to grade something flat, and I'll give you the best damn table top and whoop-de-doo dirt track you've ever seen.

My understanding of the mesh is to act like a thing to cause an rpg warhead to detonate just shy of hitting the body; similar stuff was on Strykers and the like in Iraq.  Can't imagine the debris you'd pick up with all that shit hanging off the sides if you were doing grubbing work in the woods, but on the other hand, boom!  Instant camo!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 21, 2022, 06:28:54 PM
I'm sure you've heard this before but...Jesus Carl.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 21, 2022, 07:06:20 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 21, 2022, 06:28:54 PM
I'm sure you've heard this before but...Jesus Carl.

Mechanical mine removal is a snap.  The 12Bs* had the shit job of metal detecting, probing, etc. in the open.  Me?  I've got several feet of metal between my ass and the bad thing.

*- callem them 11Bs by mistake.  It's been a few minutes since I was in the Army, so my bad.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 21, 2022, 10:13:04 PM
Dammit Carl is now, 'Dozer Carl' far as I'm concerned.  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 22, 2022, 08:19:37 AM
what game is this?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1583776636398227456
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 22, 2022, 10:39:52 AM
the wagner line....   :DD

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfruEkMXgAQoa6x?format=png&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfrJ6ZlWQAE2snD?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 22, 2022, 11:43:55 AM
Well, that'll slow down the HUMVEE swarm... ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 22, 2022, 11:45:05 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 22, 2022, 08:19:37 AM
what game is this?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1583776636398227456

"As you can see, the precision has increased by 99% since WW2."  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 22, 2022, 12:54:53 PM
Ukrainians need a dune buggy / motorcycle strike force and shiny jumpsuits to keep the advance going.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 22, 2022, 01:01:44 PM
^My brother and I used to love that movie when we were kids. Great memories.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 22, 2022, 01:02:10 PM
I thought I was the only one that remembered that movie.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 22, 2022, 01:38:04 PM
Buddy and I were so caught up in the 80s movies, we came up with an RPG so we could roleplay out all the violence.  Reading absolute tons of Soldier of Fortune magazine,  Mack Bolan, Able Team, etc. didn't hurt either.

If I was smart then, I should've really hammered something nice out and be rolling in all that sweet, sweet TTRPG cash now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 22, 2022, 01:38:52 PM
My head just exploded...haven't seen Megaforce clips in ~40 years...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 22, 2022, 02:38:09 PM
Sad to see it's not on streaming anywhere I can put it on.

Have to settle for Samurai Cop instead.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on October 22, 2022, 03:21:06 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 22, 2022, 01:02:10 PM
I thought I was the only one that remembered that movie.



Sheesh... from Henry Silva's expression you'd think he'd never seen a flying motorcycle before.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 22, 2022, 04:26:29 PM
I think, even when I saw that movie on HBO in 9th grade, it struck me as being too 80s for the 80s.  Call me a blasphemer, but the only thing that really worked for me in that movie was the actress.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 22, 2022, 04:45:01 PM
Heh 'too 80s for the 80s' - that's really 80s
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 22, 2022, 07:07:36 PM
While you may laugh, at least the gold/silver lame jumpsuits did a better job of camo than the ACUs did.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 22, 2022, 09:33:17 PM
Carl, who needs camo when you look that sleek!!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 23, 2022, 01:49:35 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 22, 2022, 11:43:55 AM
Well, that'll slow down the HUMVEE swarm... ;)
For a couple minutes at least, as those dragon teeth handily have hooks mounted on them for moving them around   :-"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 23, 2022, 03:35:09 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 22, 2022, 02:38:09 PM
Sad to see it's not on streaming anywhere I can put it on.

You can rent Megaforce on Prime Video ($2.99).  And Amazon has some DVD's in stock.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 23, 2022, 04:07:44 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on October 23, 2022, 01:49:35 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 22, 2022, 11:43:55 AM
Well, that'll slow down the HUMVEE swarm... ;)
For a couple minutes at least, as those dragon teeth handily have hooks mounted on them for moving them around   :-"

I saw a quote detailing that based one edge equal to one meter one dragon tooth *) would have a mass of ca three quarters of a ton. With a 50 ton tank there'd be no need to have breaching equipment, just roll over them as they are placed on top of soft ground.

Another comment that if these are manufactured of concrete without reinforced steel they can be shredded to pieces with a 50 cal.

But they look like this mighty Wagner line and that's all that counts right.   

Edit *) apologies, based on twitter the proper term would be Cope Teeth

Edit2 and while we have our  :nerd: glasses on, there was another comment that those cope teeth are not pyramids but tetrodes, so the correct formula would be (a^3)/(6*sqrt(2)) where a=side, and looking at the pictures they look more like 90cm (ca one yard) than 100cm so with mass of concrete at 2.4 kg/litre (at this point I am purely throwing some metric sh*te at you lol) this gives on tetrode a whopping weight of 206 kgs.

That's some 450 lbs for you lot, making all this even more, erm, Wagneresque I guess.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 23, 2022, 08:30:20 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on October 23, 2022, 04:07:44 AM

That's some 450 lbs for you lot, making all this even more, erm, Wagneresque I guess.
Two lifting hooks, even  :bd:

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=26039.0;attach=17366;image)

edit source: https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1583800227425046529
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 23, 2022, 08:55:21 AM
ever wonder what ejecting at low altitude is like?   :o

https://twitter.com/i/status/1584128393510952960
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 23, 2022, 09:20:34 AM
Beautiful day for an ejection.

Must be a relatively secure or low threat environment for him to stand around in the open field like that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 23, 2022, 11:52:30 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on October 23, 2022, 03:35:09 AM
You can rent Megaforce on Prime Video ($2.99).  And Amazon has some DVD's in stock.

Megaforce might be like having a gold brick full of awesome punching you in the face....but it's not worth $3.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 23, 2022, 12:26:20 PM
the current state of the soviet army.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1584203002935549953
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 23, 2022, 12:40:15 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 23, 2022, 11:52:30 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on October 23, 2022, 03:35:09 AM
You can rent Megaforce on Prime Video ($2.99).  And Amazon has some DVD's in stock.

Megaforce might be like having a gold brick full of awesome punching you in the face....but it's not worth $3.

:clap: :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 23, 2022, 01:17:20 PM
Can the Russians' trucks not even stop now? Why would they keep going towing a gun with a broken axle??

'WTF RUSSIA'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 23, 2022, 01:25:02 PM
Reminds me of a 5 ton semi I got stuck with once with a flat spot in the front tire; had to get it over 50 to get a "smooth," ride.  Otherwise, you were just jarring the fillings out of your mouth it shook so violently.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 23, 2022, 03:03:34 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 23, 2022, 01:17:20 PM
Can the Russians' trucks not even stop now? Why would they keep going towing a gun with a broken axle??

'WTF RUSSIA'

I saw some footage earlier today or last night, shot from a Ukrainian tank commander's helm-cam, where a Russian truck towing an anti-air gun, followed by what looked like an open-topped mechanized troop carrier (like the British used to have in WW2), charged up next to the tank which was advancing up a road shooting at targets (possibly including them), and rolled to a halt. The footage ended there, but my impression was that they were fleeing drone-spotted arty strikes and felt safer near the Uk tanks! -- maybe wanted to surrender.

That footage of the wobbly WW2 gun, by the way, reminds me of another report I saw or heard of the Russians pulling WW2 kit out of mothballs, to send up for reserve, although I didn't pay enough attention to what was being unballed. ;)

Most Russian troops are fleeing Kherson however, so maybe their godawful kit can meet them at the minimum safe distance, whatever that may be now.   :coolsmiley:

The US 101st Airborne has arrived on a Romanian border, standing by for deployment apparently. One theory is that they'll be dropped into or near Kherson to help protect the area if the Orcs blow the dam, with limitations along the line of 'They won't be on offense, and they won't help defense anywhere else, but they'll eliminate every target which shoots at them.' Thus securing the area for NATO/EU humanitarian aid deployment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 23, 2022, 03:35:53 PM
^Do you have a link on the 101st?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 23, 2022, 03:45:24 PM
I saw a thing about them cross training with the Romanian Army.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 23, 2022, 03:46:15 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 23, 2022, 03:35:53 PM
^Do you have a link on the 101st?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-news-russia-us-army-101st-airborne-nato-war-games-romania/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 23, 2022, 06:43:24 PM
^Thanks D. That is amazing. And great.

I like to think that Putin, in his quietest moment just before falling asleep, shits himself a little bit knowing that an elite American force is so close to his warzone.

Maybe wishful thinking.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 23, 2022, 07:19:42 PM
I suspect it is wishful thinking.  It's a little unclear what Putin is thinking these days, or whether his health is so irregular that the Russian central command is reeling from mishap to mishap like a drunken bear.

While there is always the possibility that the 101st would deploy forward in the event of a humanitarian disaster, it seems unlikely.  Half of Ukraine has been a humanitarian disaster for the better part of 8 months now, and NATO forces haven't crossed into Ukrainian territory in any significant numbers yet.  Deploying right next to a combat zone seems aggressive at best and foolhardy at worst.

Nothing in the US force posture of the last eight months suggests that they would do that.  Unless the US wants to move their tripwire right next to some of the heaviest fighting going on in the world right now, it'd make more sense for them to occupy parts of Eastern Ukraine "providing humanitarian assistance" so that Ukrainian manpower could deploy eastward to that region. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 23, 2022, 08:27:23 PM
Yeah, Poland should temporarily annex the part of Ukraine bordering Belarus and declare it protected by NATO.  I imagine Putin wouldn't take that very well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on October 23, 2022, 09:28:22 PM
Gee, I wonder what country is next to Romania that hasn't been invaded by Russia, but Russia would like to invade but can't possibly even with its "peacekeepers" present, and had been made a frozen conflict well before Ukraine had been made in 2014.  And has also complained about overflights of Russian missiles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 23, 2022, 09:57:51 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on October 23, 2022, 08:27:23 PM
Yeah, Poland should temporarily annex the part of Ukraine bordering Belarus and declare it protected by NATO.  I imagine Putin wouldn't take that very well.

Well, Ukraine was, at one point part of the Polish Kingdom during its golden age.  Ukraine literally means "Borderland" referring to the territory between Poland and Russia hence it's old reference as "The Ukraine" rather than Ukraine. 

Poland could just assert it's claims from the 14th century.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on October 23, 2022, 11:53:24 PM
Are the 101st airborne anymore?  I thought they were airmobile now and that the 82nd was the only actual airborne division in the army?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 24, 2022, 12:36:16 AM
Oh, one of their Combat Brigade Teams. Still a lot of men of course. How media writes their click baits certainly got my attention this time, they made it sound like the full division would have deployed. That would have been something.

Quote from: Uberhaus on October 23, 2022, 09:28:22 PM
Gee, I wonder what country is next to Romania that hasn't been invaded by Russia, but Russia would like to invade but can't possibly even with its "peacekeepers" present, and had been made a frozen conflict well before Ukraine had been made in 2014.  And has also complained about overflights of Russian missiles.

Indeed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 24, 2022, 07:42:19 AM
I thought any airborne division was primarily airmobile, with a brigade of actual drop troops to take and hold landing zones.

Anyway. Ukraine's thunder-assault strategy (fast HUMVEE raids) could use some of these perhaps!  :D

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusiasts/glickenhaus-008-fast-response-military-vehicle-is-ready-to-do-battle-against-the-covenant/ar-AA13ixy4?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=92318c4648474ecf8f419fcde97f4ac1

(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA13iqjU.img?w=768&h=427&m=6)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 24, 2022, 08:34:49 AM
^I'll take two
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 24, 2022, 09:04:04 AM
One for each foot!  :D

The real version (sans autocannon) comes standard with a Ford V8, with an option for a supercharged V8.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 24, 2022, 09:17:14 AM
On a more serious note, The Jerusalem Post this morning had a brief stub article about the Russian defense minister and the US SecDef phoning each other twice in the past three days. No details other than attempting "to avoid misunderstandings". (I don't have the link anymore atm; will provide one later if I re-see it.)

I suspect the first call was about the cough "accidental" launch of an air-to-air missile by a Russian jet against a US jet earlier this weekend. I don't care how bad Russian maintenance is, that couldn't be a mechanical accident; the accident would be the pilot and/or his air controller mistook the jet for Ukrainian. No damage to the US jet (for whatever reason), thank goodness!

I suspect the second call was about the 101st (or elements of it) training with live fire on the Romanian border with Romanian troops.


As for the theory about deploying farther forward than West Ukraine, at the dam site: the point would be that if Russia blows the dam, that's going to be similar to using it as a weapon of mass destruction, though not formally categorized as such (so it wouldn't trigger any relevant Articles), which would be a rather different and more localized humanitarian crisis happening all at once than what we've seen so far in the war. The Red Cross et al will want to get into the area to help civilians, and they'll need serious security for protection if so.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 24, 2022, 10:54:57 AM
A Russian plane locked on and fired at an American plane??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 24, 2022, 11:01:01 AM
Yep, I was hearing about this over the weekend on a podcast, which was supposedly confirmed by reference to a official government page somewhere. I wasn't where I could check their source at the time, and figured I'd see more about it here today. I'll try to get a source on it when I get home.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 24, 2022, 11:17:49 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 24, 2022, 11:01:01 AM
Yep, I was hearing about this over the weekend on a podcast, which was supposedly confirmed by reference to a official government page somewhere. I wasn't where I could check their source at the time, and figured I'd see more about it here today. I'll try to get a source on it when I get home.

  I heard about an incident with a British plane.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 24, 2022, 11:57:46 AM
so many things to clarify....

the russian defense minister has been calling just about every western senoir defense official to claim the Ukraine was setting up a dirty bomb.  he was told to basically stfu and not to escalate this war any further in no uncertain terms.

it was a Flanker that launched near a UK Rivet Joint over the North Sea. it was never locked on to and it seems the missile was launched abeam of the NATO plane.  the reaction to that is that all such flights now have fighter escorts and tanker support so I dont see that happening again.

and while Im rooting for the Ukraine it should be remembered that they flooded all their own territory at the beginning of this mess to halt the drive on Kiev.  this was also a tactic used by all sides during WW2.  I wouldnt consider this a war crime the same way I dont consider hitting infrastructure targets a war crime.  we 100% plastered Iraqi power and comms stations at the beginning of both Gulf Wars.  if anything its the only proper use of air power the soviets have displayed so far.  if this had been a NATO war, all of those targets would have been hit the first night and then repeatedly for the next 2 weeks.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 24, 2022, 12:25:31 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 24, 2022, 11:17:49 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 24, 2022, 11:01:01 AM
Yep, I was hearing about this over the weekend on a podcast, which was supposedly confirmed by reference to a official government page somewhere. I wasn't where I could check their source at the time, and figured I'd see more about it here today. I'll try to get a source on it when I get home.

  I heard about an incident with a British plane.

Yes, four days ago near an unescorted RAF RC-135 spy plane over Black Sea. The next day it was escorted by two Typhoons.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/20/russian-fighter-jet-released-missile-near-raf-plane-over-black-sea

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 24, 2022, 04:16:33 PM
Yep, was about to post the Guardian article, but happy Crossroads got to it first. (And Star less directly but more accurately than I thought I had heard.)  O0

The UK MoD posted the essence of the UK's turn to get the phone call: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1584200202948612096/photo/1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 24, 2022, 04:23:24 PM
Apparently, I heard US got two calls when it was really the UK: the Guardian article clarifies that there was a separate call between the UK and Russia about the missile shot.

QuoteHe told the Commons the incident occurred in "international airspace", adding that an "unarmed RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint" plane was "interacted with" by two Russian SU-27s, one of which "released a missile in the vicinity of the RAF Rivet Joint beyond visual range".

He said: "It is not unusual for aircraft to be shadowed and this day was no different. During that interaction however, it transpired that one of the SU-27 aircraft released a missile in the vicinity of the RAF Rivet Joint beyond visual range.

"The total time of the interaction between the Russian aircraft and the Rivet Joint was approximately 90 minutes. The patrol completed and the aircraft returned to base."

Wallace told the Commons that Russia had blamed the missile release on a "technical malfunction".

"In light of this potentially dangerous engagement, I have communicated my concerns directly to my Russian counterpart, defence minister [Sergei] Shoigu, and the chief of defence staff in Moscow."

Wallace added: "In my letter I made clear the aircraft was unarmed, in international airspace, and following a pre-notified flight path. I felt it was prudent to suspend these patrols until a response was received by the Russian state.

"The reply by the Russian minister of defence on 10 October stated they have conducted an investigation into the circumstances of the incident and stated it was a technical malfunction of the SU-27 fighter.

"They also acknowledge that the incident took place in international airspace."

He said he had also been in touch with his Turkish counterparts over the episode, saying Turkey had offered all the assistance the UK required.

"We do not consider this as a deliberate escalation by Russia. Our analysis is this was a malfunction, but it a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use your fighters in the manner the Russians have done over many periods of time," Wallace said.

He added: "While this was obviously the release of a weapon, we have seen very very close flying next to US, Nato and UK assets over the last few years."

In one event, he said, a Russian fighter went within 15ft of a Nato aircraft. "That is reckless, unnecessary and put at risk many people's lives; we are incredibly lucky it did not become worse."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 24, 2022, 07:51:16 PM
*sigh*

Taking in the above incident now I wonder how good an idea it is for the 101st to be in Romania...in case of 'accidental' shelling or any other types of 'accidents.'

I'll just defer to the pet name of this entire series of events and the thread itself.

Jesus F*cking Christ, Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 24, 2022, 08:29:15 PM
When the UK DefMin confirmed my suspicion that the shot was taken beyond visual range, I thought yep the 'technical' 'accident' was mis-identification. Either the pilot's, or his controller (if they even have something like awacs anymore). Maybe along with a more immediate technical accident, or maintenance problem, of (thank God) the seeker and/or the targeting radar not going active (apparently)!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 24, 2022, 09:20:19 PM
Yeah.  The flight was pre-registered with the Russians and in international air space, but the notion that the Russians have reliable fire control or reliable fire discipline at this point of the war seems... unlikely.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 24, 2022, 09:54:30 PM
Well maybe we could all chip-in and buy the Russkies some better equipment. No, wait. Not a good idea.  :timeout:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 24, 2022, 11:36:29 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 24, 2022, 07:51:16 PM
*sigh*

Taking in the above incident now I wonder how good an idea it is for the 101st to be in Romania...in case of 'accidental' shelling or any other types of 'accidents.'

I'll just defer to the pet name of this entire series of events and the thread itself.

Jesus F*cking Christ, Russia.
How'd that happen though, I don't see Russian Navy firing missiles to Romania from Black Sea, nor is it likely that "Transnitria" and the Russian forces there - led by Russian officers but most soldiers likely "Transnitrians" who've taken Russian passports - would start a provocation.

They are landlocked with Romania's eastern neighbour Moldova and Ukraine with little chance for supplies should they go on a war footing. There's not that many soldiers there either, a couple of thousand more or less. To hit Romania they'd need to send missiles over Moldova's air space, if they have missiles that is. S300s maybe in Russian military bases?

Then again, 101st was deployed there for a reason, maybe indeed to show support to Romania as a Nato ally and to remind Russians to stay very put in Transnistria.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 25, 2022, 06:50:29 AM
Meanwhile, Iran says in effect 'We had no idea they would use our drones that way, we promise, cross our...! wait, no, um, moon our hearts and hope to die?'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-will-not-remain-indifferent-if-proven-russia-using-its-drones-in-ukraine-official/ar-AA13k4JO?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=44b10b74f21c4d9f9c9fa09290ac1fdc

Also in effect: 'If someone manages to prove that Russia is using our drones to hurt people, we vow to endeavor to persevere with our mutual defense contracts cough.' {/JoseyWalesref}
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 25, 2022, 07:02:08 AM
Meanwhile, more seriously (well, even more seriously than Iran facing world backlash for helping Russia drone civilians): https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-its-forces-are-preparing-work-under-radioactive-contamination-2022-10-24/

QuoteDefence Minister Sergei Shoigu told Western defence ministers on Sunday that Moscow believed Ukraine was preparing to detonate such a bomb - a device using conventional explosives packed with radioactive material to spread contamination over a wide area.

The head of Russia's nuclear, biological and chemical protection troops, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, told a media briefing on Monday the aim of such an attack would be to blame the resulting radioactive contamination on Russia by accusing it of detonating a low-grade nuclear weapon. Ukraine wanted to paint Russia as a "nuclear terrorist", he said. "The aim of the provocation would be to accuse Russia of using a weapon of mass destruction in the Ukrainian military theatre and by that means to launch a powerful anti-Russian campaign in the world, aimed at undermining trust in Moscow." {snip} "The unfounded denials of our Western colleagues, saying all this is fiction and that Russia itself plans to do something similar in order to later blame the Zelenskiy regime - this is not a serious conversation," {Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov} told reporters after a meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club.

'Oh no, how could they have seen through our masterful maskirovka??!'  ::) >:(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 25, 2022, 09:32:37 AM
Love the galaxy brain thinking there of trying to paint Ukraine as the ones who will set off a dirty bomb in their own territory and contaminating thousands upon thousands of acres of land (not to mention watered areas and the resultant leakage into the Black Sea) for an untold number of years to make the Russians "look bad."  "Look bad?"  Bitch, you people invaded a country, have caused untold casualties in the civilian areas behind the front lines with missile strikes, and rounded up and disappeared God knows how many Ukrainians, and now "looking bad," is the hang-up?

Un-fucking-real
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 25, 2022, 09:57:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 24, 2022, 11:57:46 AM
and while Im rooting for the Ukraine it should be remembered that they flooded all their own territory at the beginning of this mess to halt the drive on Kiev.

Not sure how many of their own civilians they killed by doing so, but that was their own defensive sacrifice.

Quotethis was also a tactic used by all sides during WW2.  I wouldnt consider this a war crime the same way I dont consider hitting infrastructure targets a war crime.  we 100% plastered Iraqi power and comms stations at the beginning of both Gulf Wars.  if anything its the only proper use of air power the soviets have displayed so far.  if this had been a NATO war, all of those targets would have been hit the first night and then repeatedly for the next 2 weeks.

All quite fair and I agree, in principle. I only meant that (on this theory) we might use such a hit as political justification for sending in the angels from above to stake out a no-action territory.

Cue the awesome meme poster from desert action in past years -- "Somewhere, a little girl is praying for God to send angels to chase away the bad men... ETA, TWO MINUTES!!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 25, 2022, 10:22:39 AM
QuoteLove the galaxy brain thinking there of trying to paint Ukraine as the ones who will set off a dirty bomb

Im guessing your referring to the russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 25, 2022, 10:44:42 AM
^ Yes, I think the rest of his post makes that very clear by context. Who else would he be referring to? He was responding to the Reuters article I posted.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2022, 01:16:15 AM
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russias-ka-52-attack-helicopter-fleet-has-been-massacred
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 26, 2022, 07:25:53 AM
The usual strategic nuclear exercises being carried out by Russia and NATO start today, going through the end of the month (Oct 30th).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-notified-the-u-s-its-annual-nuclear-exercise-has-begun-u-s-officials-say/ar-AA13mGJO?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c90b53f805e5420cb0ae7c454c132b75

Assuming Putin doesn't use this as an excuse to nuke himself and/or Ukraine, and blame it on Ukraine or whatever  :P -- it will still be interesting this year to see what observers make of Russian capabilities, considering so much underlying rot has been exposed in their other capabilities!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 26, 2022, 07:34:33 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 26, 2022, 07:25:53 AM
The usual strategic nuclear exercises being carried out by Russia and NATO start today, going through the end of the month (Oct 30th).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-notified-the-u-s-its-annual-nuclear-exercise-has-begun-u-s-officials-say/ar-AA13mGJO?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c90b53f805e5420cb0ae7c454c132b75

Assuming Putin doesn't use this as an excuse to nuke himself and/or Ukraine, and blame it on Ukraine or whatever  :P -- it will still be interesting this year to see what observers make of Russian capabilities, considering so much underlying rot has been exposed in their other capabilities!

I think the Russian plan to drop a dirty bomb on a Ukrainian force and claim that the Ukrainians did it to make the Russians look bad is so twisted and crazed that it really is the
most likely scenario for any Russian nuclear/radioactive isotope use at the moment.  I guess that is good since its not a big nuke and
I think NATO would just go in at that point rather than let things grind on but bad
of course for whoever gets the isotopes.  I would think the Russians would drop it as far west as possible (or plausible in their version of reality)
because of the prevailing winds thing but since they would want it to look like a Ukrainian bomb they might drop it pretty far east since that's what they think
we would think the Ukrainians would do.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 26, 2022, 07:50:43 AM
The Rusks have been training overtly for exposure to fallout in the past week, which signals they think the explosion will be near their troops. But that might depend on where the training (such as it is?!) was happening -- I don't recall hearing or reading specifically where.

Of course, with Russian squirrely maskirovka strategies, they might be training one place to give a mistaken impression of planning to 'be attacked' there, when really the plan is to 'be attacked' somewhere else.

It just occurred to me that a 'dirty bomb' could be detonated without causing much actual destruction or even any direct loss of life, if the target is carefully chosen -- the fallout being the prime problem. In that sense it would be a WMD with an effect somewhere between poison and biologic.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 26, 2022, 08:32:04 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 26, 2022, 07:50:43 AM
The Rusks have been training overtly for exposure to fallout in the past week, which signals they think the explosion will be near their troops. But that might depend on where the training (such as it is?!) was happening -- I don't recall hearing or reading specifically where.

Of course, with Russian squirrely maskirovka strategies, they might be training one place to give a mistaken impression of planning to 'be attacked' there, when really the plan is to 'be attacked' somewhere else.

It just occurred to me that a 'dirty bomb' could be detonated without causing much actual destruction or even any direct loss of life, if the target is carefully chosen -- the fallout being the prime problem. In that sense it would be a WMD with an effect somewhere between poison and biologic.

    Well it seems pretty tricky to me, but maybe it seems plausible to the Russians.  I would think a workable scenario would be:
1) get your troops protected in a critical frontline area
2) set the bomb in that area
3) set a timer on the bomb
4) withdraw your troops
5) hope the Ukrainians move into the area and get hit by the isotopes
6) blame it on the Ukrainians

But I'm sure they have something much more deranged in mind and that they think it is a good idea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2022, 09:10:56 AM
QuoteThe Rusks have been training overtly for exposure to fallout in the past week, which signals they think the explosion will be near their troops.

the soviets are also conducting their annual nuclear drills this week including ICBM test launches.  exposure/nbc training could be connected to that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 26, 2022, 09:23:19 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2022, 09:10:56 AM
QuoteThe Rusks have been training overtly for exposure to fallout in the past week, which signals they think the explosion will be near their troops.

the soviets are also conducting their annual nuclear drills this week including ICBM test launches.  exposure/nbc training could be connected to that.

Certainly that could be the explanation, but normal training wasn't the explanation the Russians themselves gave for their exposure training. Of course, they could give a false explanation for otherwise normally scheduled training, too!


Meanwhile, the Washington Examiner reports that Russia has started walking back its dirty bomb allegations and warnings: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-walks-back-risk-of-dirty-bomb-plot-amid-nato-warnings/ar-AA13ndvl?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d2418d7d12d743a797109b4d4e9660f1

Quote"We have got what we wanted," Russian deputy ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy told reporters at the United Nations. "If this all does not happen, I do not mind people saying that Russia is crying wolf because we are speaking about a terrible disaster that might potentially threaten the whole Earth." {snip} "There are a lot of claims that we made about things that never happened," Polyanskiy acknowledged. "But shouldn't we view it through the perspective that they never happened because we had raised those claims and Ukrainians were afraid to proceed with those provocations?"

:buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 26, 2022, 10:40:10 AM
From the Nov-Dec 2022 issue of Strategy and Tactics...was reading this during my morning deuce and thought to myself, "this didn't age very well at all."

(https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/313203682_10159659040632702_5442206584562974118_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=JtDEVyuPFLcAX-DQkl1&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1.xx&oh=00_AT9lwc_rh1xbBMguSXeTwU62RsB3gD6LbS5bzJ304b7kCg&oe=635D64E5)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 26, 2022, 12:32:54 PM
I think I would have released that issue with these pages completely blank rather then be this out of touch with reality.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 26, 2022, 12:35:00 PM
^Seriously, why would they publish that at all??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 26, 2022, 12:44:03 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 26, 2022, 09:23:19 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2022, 09:10:56 AM
QuoteThe Rusks have been training overtly for exposure to fallout in the past week, which signals they think the explosion will be near their troops.

the soviets are also conducting their annual nuclear drills this week including ICBM test launches.  exposure/nbc training could be connected to that.

Certainly that could be the explanation, but normal training wasn't the explanation the Russians themselves gave for their exposure training. Of course, they could give a false explanation for otherwise normally scheduled training, too!


Meanwhile, the Washington Examiner reports that Russia has started walking back its dirty bomb allegations and warnings: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-walks-back-risk-of-dirty-bomb-plot-amid-nato-warnings/ar-AA13ndvl?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d2418d7d12d743a797109b4d4e9660f1

Quote"We have got what we wanted," Russian deputy ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy told reporters at the United Nations. "If this all does not happen, I do not mind people saying that Russia is crying wolf because we are speaking about a terrible disaster that might potentially threaten the whole Earth." {snip} "There are a lot of claims that we made about things that never happened," Polyanskiy acknowledged. "But shouldn't we view it through the perspective that they never happened because we had raised those claims and Ukrainians were afraid to proceed with those provocations?"

:buck2:

  It's kind of interesting that for once they gave themselves credit (in a round-about way) for not doing something insane.  Now if they just stop the war they can figure out some way to get credit for
saving all mindkind for that as well, I guess.  They stopped NATO from blasting a crappy army out of existence or something right?  By just all going home and so on.

  PS...I think I mean "mankind" not "mindkind"...but who's to say?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 26, 2022, 01:00:02 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 26, 2022, 12:35:00 PM
^Seriously, why would they publish that at all??

As someone that works in the media/relations side of publishing I'd never allow something that out of date to make it past an editorial staff.   That goes a very long way to endangering credibility even if that take might've been not so unusual a few months ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 26, 2022, 01:12:33 PM
^And they look like morons!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 26, 2022, 02:01:03 PM
Reuters with an in-depth analysis on paperwork found from an abandoned Russian command post.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-base/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 26, 2022, 03:03:56 PM
^I read that earlier today. Could the Russians be so incompetent to leave literally 1000s of pages of their documents just lying around??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2022, 03:40:23 PM
QuoteCould the Russians be so incompetent

thats a silly question to ask at this point.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 26, 2022, 03:42:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 26, 2022, 03:03:56 PM
^I read that earlier today. Could the Russians be so incompetent to leave literally 1000s of pages of their documents just lying around??

Let me tell you about the reams of PII left behind by our HQ Company as we mobilized outward through Bragg years ago whilst in the Reserves, so yes, can most certainly see forgetting crap by a group looking to beat feet muy pronto.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 26, 2022, 03:51:46 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 26, 2022, 03:03:56 PM
^I read that earlier today. Could the Russians be so incompetent to leave literally 1000s of pages of their documents just lying around??

No less incompetent than the billions of dollars in advanced military weapons and equipment the United States left in Afghanistan for the Taliban. But, I digress...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 26, 2022, 03:56:37 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 26, 2022, 03:51:46 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 26, 2022, 03:03:56 PM
^I read that earlier today. Could the Russians be so incompetent to leave literally 1000s of pages of their documents just lying around??

No less incompetent than the billions of dollars in advanced military weapons and equipment the United States left in Afghanistan for the Taliban. But, I digress...

At least that stuff has a chance of killing its user when they're not properly trained.   :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2022, 04:05:41 PM
worth the read.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2021/08/23/staggering-costs--us-military-equipment-left-behind-in-afghanistan/?sh=40da624641db
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 26, 2022, 04:10:44 PM
The equipment left in Afghanistan by us was quite...incompetent. To put it mildly. I wasn't comparing it's just...unbelievable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 26, 2022, 04:11:19 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2022, 04:05:41 PM
worth the read.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2021/08/23/staggering-costs--us-military-equipment-left-behind-in-afghanistan/?sh=40da624641db

What is your point?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/politics/afghan-weapons-left-behind/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/politics/afghan-weapons-left-behind/index.html)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 26, 2022, 06:52:11 PM
I think, when your allies are THAT unreliable, there is no good exit strategy. 

I'm not making excuses for the botched withdrawal--there were a zillion things wrong with it.  I'm just not sure this was one of them.  Rather, this was an almost inevitable outcome of having made material investments into unreliable allies, who had a profoundly different agenda than we did, from the very start of the war. 

Would it have been practical to, before we left, insist on taking back all of the equipment we "gave" to the Afghan forces?  How would that have worked?

Besides, we already had a precedent set for leaving lots of US-made weapons with the mujahedin after they kicked the Russians out in the 80s.  Look at how well that worked out for us!      :pullhair:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 26, 2022, 07:00:23 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 26, 2022, 01:12:33 PM
^And they look like morons!

They do.  But it may not be entirely their fault.

I say this because I know that anyone in non-fiction publishing, whether it's books like me or magazines, we all know the issues of how fast a subject can sour and we usually have some contingency plans in place in case a topical book or article becomes stale.

For us we stick with what we internally call the A.U.T.H.O.R. frameworks, where A stands for "Accelerate the publishing process".  We're very cognoscente that a book on a topic based issue, like say, solutions for the 2018 data breaches, came out before the topic was stale or some of the takes were out of date.

We had one of our most high profile authors (who will remain nameless) who was a leader in the biomedical world whose book was ready to go to our printers when the pandemic hit.  We actually hit the breaks on it because it instantly invalidated a lot of his material and went right back to the writing phase.  That was an extreme example but we weren't about to release a book by a PhD, MD and one of the leaders in vaccine development in the world that was behind the times on a subject in which he was directly involved. 

Clearly, can't do that with a magazine, but that's why you always keep open as an editor pulling an article before it hits the printers.  As someone said, better to just cut it from the cover and TOC and remove the pages and have a short issue.  I know from our typesetter and Creative Design department we can do that in hours as long as the book isn't being printed. 

I'm not sure how their model works and how much lead time they go before their runs.  I do know our printers are slow because of the pandemic and spend more time printing box paper than books for our authors.  Maybe that was it, possibly they had to have their Nov-Dec issue submitted finalized to the printers in August.  We have to do a lot of early submissions too, much to the chagrin of some of our authors that have promo events planned and we can only get changes to the digital versions to say they've been on say, Good Morning America or Dr. Phil or somesuch that they might want to pop an "As Seen On" in their print cover or blurbs. 

Still makes them look bad.

Anyway, enough about my boring day job.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 26, 2022, 07:27:37 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 26, 2022, 06:52:11 PM
I think, when your allies are THAT unreliable, there is no good exit strategy. 

I'm not making excuses for the botched withdrawal--there were a zillion things wrong with it.  I'm just not sure this was one of them.  Rather, this was an almost inevitable outcome of having made material investments into unreliable allies, who had a profoundly different agenda than we did, from the very start of the war. 

Would it have been practical to, before we left, insist on taking back all of the equipment we "gave" to the Afghan forces?  How would that have worked?

Besides, we already had a precedent set for leaving lots of US-made weapons with the mujahedin after they kicked the Russians out in the 80s.  Look at how well that worked out for us!      :pullhair:

I cannot for the life of me believe that there are any apologists who try in any way to rationalize or put any kind of a positive spin on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. From any reasonable perspective, it was an unmitigated disaster. Just about any other approach or outcome would have been preferable.

80 U.S. aircraft
42,000 pieces of night vision, surveillance, biometric, and positioning equipment
22,174 Humvee vehicles
nearly 1,000 armored vehicles
64,363 machine guns
42,000 pick-up trucks and SUVs
358,530 assault rifles
126,295 pistols
nearly 200 artillery units
$48 million worth of ammunition

(https://i0.wp.com/fee.org/media/40233/graphic.jpeg?resize=403%2C770)

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/09/how-equipment-left-afghanistan-will-expose-us-secrets/185264/ (https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/09/how-equipment-left-afghanistan-will-expose-us-secrets/185264/)

But yeah, only $7 to $10 billion in US tax dollars left to the enemy. Yes, the enemy. The Afghan National Army collapsed before the last US forces even pulled out.

Utterly, totally, entirely incompetent. Period. A perfect, textbook example of how NOT to abandon a a country after you've fought a war there for over 2 decades. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 26, 2022, 07:38:23 PM
Not to get too off topic (this is tangentially, thematically related to Russia), but I understand that corruption in the Afghan army was a non-trivial factor in the downfall of our allied government there.  Apparently there were a ton of Sopranos-style "no show" jobs going around in the armed forces, where people were getting paid but not showing up to wear the uniform.

Back on topic, I really wonder how many of Russia's "reserves" or "home guard" are similar no-show jobs that are only strength on paper.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 26, 2022, 09:17:26 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2022, 03:40:23 PM
QuoteCould the Russians be so incompetent

thats a silly question to ask at this point.

"The Russians be" with a snorfing sigh trailing off at the end, would also work well as an alternate subject title to this thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 26, 2022, 09:51:36 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 26, 2022, 07:38:23 PM
Not to get too off topic (this is tangentially, thematically related to Russia), but I understand that corruption in the Afghan army was a non-trivial factor in the downfall of our allied government there.  Apparently there were a ton of Sopranos-style "no show" jobs going around in the armed forces, where people were getting paid but not showing up to wear the uniform.

Back on topic, I really wonder how many of Russia's "reserves" or "home guard" are similar no-show jobs that are only strength on paper.

My understanding is that this was a primary way that the Russian officers padded their purses.  They reported soldiers serving in their units--and pocketed those soldiers' paychecks--when they had already accepted bribes to let them go home.  This was part of the grease that lubricated the Russian military kleptocracy for decades.

JH, I agree that the withdrawal was utterly despicable and incompetent in all sorts of ways.  I'm not making excuses for how badly it was handled.  I just suspect that a lot of that equipment had been "lost" by Afghan forces long before we decided to pull out.  This kind of theft was part of the grease that lubricated the Afghan military kleptocracy since 2002. 

My guess is that the Afghan Army was 2x to 3x as corrupt as the Russian Army, but I really have no idea how to measure that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 26, 2022, 09:57:27 PM
Exactly the reason for a more orderly and organized withdrawal, so much equipment left unaccounted for all of which would be left for the Taliban to use against the Afghan people or us. It really smacks of criminal incompetence.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 27, 2022, 08:06:54 AM
Welp, if Sobchak is on the run...!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-goddaughter-flees-russia-hours-before-agents-swoop-to-arrest-her/ar-AA13otHn?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6363b79846674708a388e21de1051a61

QuoteSergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst, argued that the raid has sent a signal to members of the Russian elite that all bets are off. "If they can arrest the daughter of Putin's patron... it means there are no untouchables," Mr Markov wrote in a commentary. "For some members of the elites, an arrest warrant for Sobchak is a blazing sign in the skies."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 27, 2022, 08:49:14 AM
Even Putin and his administration must admit the logistical catastrophe of his 'partial' mobilization now:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-admits-it-s-running-out-of-equipment-for-mobilized-soldiers/ar-AA13qVWi?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6363b79846674708a388e21de1051a61

QuotePeskov said a newly-formed council created by Putin is working on resolving problems with equipment. "Vigorous measures taken to rectify the situation are already yielding the first positive results," he said.

More about Peskov and his newly formed council here at Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/putin-chief-exorcist-kremlin-desatanization-ukraine-security-council-1754912

...oh, wait, sorry! That was the special newly formed exorcism council...  >:D (Clarification: the council consists only of Putin himself as the chief exorcist appointed by the RussOrx Patriarch.)

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-special-council-military-meeting-supply-woes-ukraine-1754490

I am forced to assume that "the first positive results" translates to "our Mosins from the late 1800s fire 50% more often now on average before exploding".  :bd:

(See the Reuters article above for an aside about nineteenth-century Mosin rifles being distributed in bad shape to troops.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 27, 2022, 09:03:42 AM
^I don't doubt that there is some kind of Russian Exorcism Council. That would make a great book. And movie. HBO series?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 27, 2022, 09:21:02 AM
There probably is an actual exorcism council of Russian Orthodoxy. But I was slightly wrong about my expectations, by not being cynical enough: Putin was declared to be the chief exorcist.

I'm generally fine with exorcisms in principle (in evangelical denominations like the Baptists we call it deliverance ministries), and I don't even disagree in principle with the things Putin is mouthing about the totalitarian reduction and elimination of freedom being satanic (and even Satanic, capital S ;) ). But I think it's obvious from his own descriptive testimony that the chief Satanic purveyor of Satanism in his immediate vicinity is Putin himself and his regime: logically he's testifying against himself! -- while being made the chief exorcist of Satanism in Russia.

Which also seems pretty typical of the loopiness of Russian life and culture for the past however-many-decades-or-centuries now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 27, 2022, 09:22:48 AM
^whoa
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 27, 2022, 09:28:29 AM
Even more of Putin using the Orthodox church as theater to support his agenda. 

He is, of course, chief exorcist because he's returning to and enforcing Caseropapism as a central tenant of the Russian Orthodoxy.  Caesar is the head of the church, he is Caesar (Tsar) and the church enforces his divine will.  So if there are any exorcists, he is of course chief exorcist. 

I was more concerned with the fact that recently the Patriarch prepared the Russian people for "Years" of war with Ukraine when he endorsed the mobilization.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 27, 2022, 09:34:31 AM
Caesaropapism can't be a word, you've had to made that up...

...and the last part of your above post makes me...jittery.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 27, 2022, 09:39:02 AM
Quote from: Gusington on October 27, 2022, 09:34:31 AM
Caesaropapism can't be a word, you've had to made that up...

...and the last part of your above post makes me...jittery.


https://www.britannica.com/topic/caesaropapism

It was one of the central points of the Great Schism and has defined Russia's relationship with the Eastern Church since the Byzantine Empire fell and they redefined themselves as the "Third Rome".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 27, 2022, 09:51:25 AM
^ Yep!

And all words are made up.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 27, 2022, 09:57:23 AM
I should perhaps clarify that despite being a Protestant I'm friendly with pretty much any trinitarian congregation, especially ancient ones, and I'd rather us all work together on what we agree on. I read and benefit from Eastern Orthodox works, and even Russian Orthodox works, on a relatively regular basis. (e.g. I tend to agree that Sergius Bulgakov is the greatest EOx systematic theologian of the 20th century.)

Which just makes me more disgusted and zorchy about the hijacking of Russian Orthodoxy in this instance (as well as prior ones).  >:(

(Also the Protestant side of me quietly snorts here that Caesaropapism is one of those details we tend to Protest against. ;) )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 27, 2022, 10:10:27 AM
CAESAROPAPISM!! I'm going back to bed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 27, 2022, 10:19:39 AM
Quote from: Gusington on October 27, 2022, 10:10:27 AM
CAESAROPAPISM!! I'm going back to bed.

I'm at work and never left.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 27, 2022, 10:28:04 AM
Putin a few minutes ago :

In a true democracy, Putin said, each country gets the chance to choose its own path. "Everyone should have that right. Russia too. No one will ever impose on us which society to build on which principles.

But if Russia wants to invade, you're not a real country.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 27, 2022, 10:37:26 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on October 27, 2022, 10:28:04 AM

But if Russia wants to invade, you're not a real country.

Putin made it very clear since February that he doesn't consider Ukraine a real country.  There's that factor that he regularly says "The Ukraine" rather than Ukraine.  Referring it to the traditional identity as the Russian "borderland" with Poland.  That's what Ukraine means. 

Pretty much anyone that was once in the old Russian Empire...Poland included....is Russia to him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 27, 2022, 11:29:44 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 26, 2022, 09:57:27 PM
Exactly the reason for a more orderly and organized withdrawal, so much equipment left unaccounted for all of which would be left for the Taliban to use against the Afghan people or us. It really smacks of criminal incompetence.

  I thought the Afghan army was supposed to have all that stuff and be able to take on the Taliban.  The Taliban basically overran the army, right?  Or did something else happen?  I mean, if the US took
all the gear, wouldn't that have left the Afghan army without all that stuff?  Again, maybe I missed the finer points, but when the US left, didn't the Afghan army have the stuff we left there?  then the
Afghan army basically evaporated, right?  or did I miss something?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 27, 2022, 12:09:01 PM
Absolutely. But nobody really thought the Afghan National Army could or would fight the Taliban by themselves. That's why somebody should, and probably did, tell Washington all the equipment would be lost and needed to be moved or neutralized. However a great deal of equipment was still in American hands at the beginning of the collapse and should've been destroyed if nothing else.

And is, 'Grogpapism' a word too?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 27, 2022, 12:12:38 PM
^No
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 27, 2022, 12:51:42 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 27, 2022, 10:37:26 AM

Putin made it very clear since February that he doesn't consider Ukraine a real country.  There's that factor that he regularly says "The Ukraine" rather than Ukraine.  Referring it to the traditional identity as the Russian "borderland" with Poland.  That's what Ukraine means. 

Pretty much anyone that was once in the old Russian Empire...Poland included....is Russia to him.

That is also why his talk of denazification is such a gruesome take. It is not aimed at western audiences but internal and Ukrainian audiences. They are there to free Ukrainians from their Neo-Nazi government, and if you fight them you are part of the Nazis and deserve to be liquidated.

:(

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 27, 2022, 03:19:08 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 27, 2022, 12:12:38 PM
^No

Donglepapism on the other hand....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 27, 2022, 03:23:40 PM
 :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 27, 2022, 05:07:28 PM
Putin today declared martial law in much of Russia.  There's a detailed (and extremely cynical) take on the topic from the Carnegie Institute, suggesting that the declaration is good (and practical) for Putin but not so good for Russia (or the Russian conduct of the war).

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88250
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 27, 2022, 05:08:09 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 27, 2022, 12:09:01 PM
Absolutely. But nobody really thought the Afghan National Army could or would fight the Taliban by themselves. That's why somebody should, and probably did, tell Washington all the equipment would be lost and needed to be moved or neutralized. However a great deal of equipment was still in American hands at the beginning of the collapse and should've been destroyed if nothing else.

And is, 'Grogpapism' a word too?

  Okay, so assuming one is going to leave (maybe that's the basic error-- you can't leave and expect the army to hang on but...assuming you are going to leave) when do you start blowing up or
removing the equipment that you have left with the army that you (erroneously or disingenuously ) think is going to be fighting the Taliban?  Apparently, the army collapsed really fast, but in any case
how do you as the exiting party start blowing up or removing the stuff you left for the army to fight with?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 27, 2022, 05:17:46 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 27, 2022, 05:07:28 PM
Putin today declared martial law in much of Russia.  There's a detailed (and extremely cynical) take on the topic from the Carnegie Institute, suggesting that the declaration is good (and practical) for Putin but not so good for Russia (or the Russian conduct of the war).

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88250

  That's pretty confusing at all levels -- okay so suppose I'm a regional governor who now has an apparently new random array of powers to apply to (what exactly?  the war?  people I don't like? opinions I find disturbing? competing authorities? railroads?  Fuel supplies?  ) things -- at the same time, the special agencies now have even better random powers.  It's like a concealed reduction in my actual power
since it is not at all necessarily aligned with my aims at all and allows forces I can't control or foresee to freely intrude on my authority.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 27, 2022, 06:14:45 PM
That's it, pretty much.  Carnegie views it primarily as a means to shift blame for subsequent failures from Putin to regional governors.  Which might bode well for Putin's continue rule, but does not seem to bode well for Russian performance.

I never know whether to be impressed or appalled by the Russian people's seeming tolerance for adversity...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 27, 2022, 06:17:38 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 27, 2022, 05:08:09 PM
  Okay, so assuming one is going to leave (maybe that's the basic error-- you can't leave and expect the army to hang on but...assuming you are going to leave) when do you start blowing up or
removing the equipment that you have left with the army that you (erroneously or disingenuously ) think is going to be fighting the Taliban?  Apparently, the army collapsed really fast, but in any case
how do you as the exiting party start blowing up or removing the stuff you left for the army to fight with?

I've no proof of what I'm about to say, but I would think that the equipment "left behind," was already dumbed down (i.e. BLUFOR tracker removed/ SINGARS removed, etc.) as much as possible - roughly equating into whatever we pass off as export models prior to hitting the eject button on the place.  Hell, the turn I took in country had us leaving our worn out vehicles behind and never getting them back once we wrung the snot out of them, for example.  And much like Iran, once you're out of the supply chain for your captured goods, it ain't like you can get all the parts you need to keep 'em moving once they do break down.

Now, if it's denial of service you want and you want it now, I've heard some willy pete &/or C4 will work wonders.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 27, 2022, 06:22:59 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 27, 2022, 05:08:09 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 27, 2022, 12:09:01 PM
Absolutely. But nobody really thought the Afghan National Army could or would fight the Taliban by themselves. That's why somebody should, and probably did, tell Washington all the equipment would be lost and needed to be moved or neutralized. However a great deal of equipment was still in American hands at the beginning of the collapse and should've been destroyed if nothing else.

And is, 'Grogpapism' a word too?

  Okay, so assuming one is going to leave (maybe that's the basic error-- you can't leave and expect the army to hang on but...assuming you are going to leave) when do you start blowing up or
removing the equipment that you have left with the army that you (erroneously or disingenuously ) think is going to be fighting the Taliban?  Apparently, the army collapsed really fast, but in any case
how do you as the exiting party start blowing up or removing the stuff you left for the army to fight with?

You just f*cking do it. That's how. American tax payers didn't write Afghanistan a blank check. They didn't agree to give Afghanistan a 16 billion dollar shopping spree...certainly not without some kind of quid pro quo and expectation that those in charge would be committed to standing for their own freedom, safety and control of their own country. You're not going to do your part? Screw you...give it back, you can't have it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2022, 07:19:16 PM
both articles we posted roughed it out to around $7 billion, so wheres the $16 billion shopping spree coming from.
we mostly left old stuff behind that was either past its service life or close to it.
this kinda pertains to the Ukraine insofar as were giving them all of our oldest stocks of equipment and munitions.
thats a win win to me. our military gets new toys and they get to defend themselves.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 27, 2022, 07:52:56 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2022, 07:19:16 PM
both articles we posted roughed it out to around $7 billion, so wheres the $16 billion shopping spree coming from.
we mostly left old stuff behind that was either past its service life or close to it.
this kinda pertains to the Ukraine insofar as were giving them all of our oldest stocks of equipment and munitions.
thats a win win to me. our military gets new toys and they get to defend themselves.

You're absolutely right. 16 Billion is incorrect. What I meant to say, was 73 Billion, in reference to the total cost of military aid given to Afghanistan during the entire 20 year period of the war. I'll agree, for purposes of the discussion, that the amount of military aid actually abandoned in country to the Taliban had a "KBB" ballpark value of 7 Billion. The weapon systems were not past service life or close to it. I've outlined in detail the quantities of weapons left behind to the individual rifle and pistol. Does claiming it is ok because its  "old" really justify it in your view? Old weapons kill. I mean, you wouldn't argue that it was ok to leave 13 dead service members behind because some of them were close to EAS and at the end of their service lives would you?

In any event, I don't think the military aid situation in Ukraine is comparable to the fiasco in Afghanistan, nor will it ever be. The situation on the ground is very different.  To be sure, some could argue with merit that US aid should be limited, or not given at all, but that is not a position I would personally defend with any great zeal.

For the record though, not everything the US is giving to Ukraine is "old".  Is HIMARS old? What about the TOW systems? NASAMS? Phoenix, Switchblade and Puma drone systems? Scan Eagle? VAMPIRE? These are just the major systems, and they are all state-of-the-art. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2022, 08:19:32 PM
the world is awash in small arms so I'm not to bothered by that.  the humvee thats been in country for 10 years and somehow survived isnt worth shipping back to the US for refurbishment.  and no, obviously people are not equipment.  thats a silly tangent to take.

QuoteIs HIMARS old? What about the TOW systems?

yes.  Himars has 12 years of active service now.  while the platform is relatively new the rockets are not.   the missiles we're giving them were built in the 80s and 90s.  I've mentioned before how the UAF have been using cluster munitions that we won't use anymore.  and the TOW... my guy, that's been around since 1970.  the current versions, IIRC, while command guided, are not wire guided.  the videos I've seen for that system have all trailed dual wires.  the rest of the kit you've listed is brand new but no where near as kinetic as Leo2a6's, F-16's and peer systems.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2022, 08:27:40 PM
TOW's:

https://www.army-technology.com/projects/tow-2-missile/

for fucks sake!  700000 built!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 27, 2022, 08:42:50 PM
Out of curiosity, because I'm too lazy to look it up, but not too lazy to ask someone else  :)) : how up to date are the Excalibur rounds being sent over? Those just started being used in Ukraine in the past three or maybe four weeks, from what I saw.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2022, 09:24:05 PM
I saw a video today of two tanks getting whacked by them.  both were aimed in on the engine deck from whatever drone.  the first tank got hit in the turret and wrecked, the second shell on the second target landed roughly 5 meters to the right.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 27, 2022, 11:00:00 PM
My recollection of the Afghan withdrawal was that when the Tallies launched their big offensive and Washington made it clear we weren't going to continue to provide the support the ANA needed, then the Afghan army headed for the hills. At that point the military advised the Admin. they wished to continue to keep a number of troops in country, 1,700 I think, in order to hold both Bagram AFB and Kabul AFB in order to provide for an orderly withdrawal and ensure all Americans and Afghan friendlies were gotten out.

It was the Admin. that nixed that idea insisting only a handful of troops remain forcing the military to abandon all that equipment at Bagram in order to hold Kabul. Perhaps a lot of it was old and broken but as we saw in JH's list, a lot was very modern stuff. That's why the Chinese sprinted in to get a look at as much as they could.

I would love it if our Congress would hold open hearings to find out who really did what and when and WHY. Unfortunately they seem so interested in investigating, 'Threats To Our Democracy' but not this one. Maybe the next one will be more investigatory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2022, 11:11:06 PM
can we all agree that no matter how it went down it was going to be a shitshow?
is there any easy withdrawal from a country that doesnt want you there?
can we start a new thread about this spinoff instead of derailing this one?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 28, 2022, 05:24:44 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2022, 11:11:06 PM
can we all agree that no matter how it went down it was going to be a shitshow?

Why? For some reason, you still want to make excuses. If Trump was president when this happened, you'd be all over it like stink on shit. But it happened under the next admin, so you're all, "eh, it was only 7 billion and it was all old stuff anyway. Big deal."

You're blind if you can't see your own double standard.

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2022, 11:11:06 PM
is there any easy withdrawal from a country that doesnt want you there?

Easy? Perhaps not. Smart, well planned and lacking in utter incompetence, though? Yup.

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2022, 11:11:06 PM
can we start a new thread about this spinoff instead of derailing this one?

I agree, this has definitely crossed into separate topic material, but we're probably better off just leaving it alone and staying focused on Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 28, 2022, 07:34:11 AM
To get us back on topic, here's your proof whatever Russia does Belarus can do better. As in: I see your cope cage and raise you by our cope mesh (as it's too close to chassis to do anything good) and add a magic lantern to top this all off. Not sure if genie included.

I guess this says "all in".

Enjoy your FRIDAY!

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1585756583870758912

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgG84X4WIAAgvpe?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 28, 2022, 08:13:53 AM
Really want to know what that shit is all about.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 28, 2022, 08:28:11 AM
It's a dark day when we want to get back to the 'normal Ukraine conversation.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 28, 2022, 08:40:24 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgKLAS9XkAEY2mj?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 28, 2022, 09:56:30 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on October 28, 2022, 08:13:53 AM
Really want to know what that shit is all about.

  Burning thing on a pole?  Infrared decoy maybe?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 28, 2022, 10:05:49 AM
its claimed to be an IR decoy.   ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 28, 2022, 10:07:04 AM
It's going into winter, so maybe it's like a mobile hobo burn can.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 28, 2022, 10:09:10 AM
That's what I thought too, IR Decoy. Or else Madd Maxx time.  :idiot2:  Defiantly time to go back on topic.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 28, 2022, 10:11:05 AM
'Mobile hobo burn can'  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 28, 2022, 10:13:25 AM
Wouldn't fire ATTRACT heat-seeking missiles?  ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 28, 2022, 10:24:28 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 28, 2022, 10:05:49 AM
its claimed to be an IR decoy.   ::)
Just saw a post by a guy who knows how many of the older ATGM - with emphasis on Guided - models such as TOW have an IR sensor on the sight itself, and if the sight locks on wrong target then it means the shot will miss. So their magic lanter might actually work :o.


Edit Not sure that little bucket has the intensity to resemble a missile's flame oh it is an IR beacon on its tail. But I assume that indeed is the idea behind it. => So it won't work, definitively a Cope Bucket and not a working solution.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on October 28, 2022, 10:35:39 AM
"Well, boys, we're heading into combat; light the can. And you, Ivan, don't run through any water or you're getting out and re-lighting the damn thing."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 28, 2022, 11:21:36 AM
it just needs to be hotter then the engine not a rocket or a jet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 28, 2022, 12:08:14 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 28, 2022, 09:56:30 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on October 28, 2022, 08:13:53 AM
Really want to know what that shit is all about.

  Burning thing on a pole?  Infrared decoy maybe?
Maybe the tank has gas and they're trying to not stink up the neighborhood.  :)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 28, 2022, 02:23:15 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on October 28, 2022, 12:08:14 PM

Maybe the tank has gas and they're trying to not stink up the neighborhood.  :)
Or, they heard you can brew a pot of tea in a Challenger  :cowboy:

So, had a chance to check things out on another forum. With TOW, the launcher tracks the IR beacon on the missile to guide the missile towards the target at crosshair of the sight. In theory, the Cope Lantern was to distract this mechanism.

There's been a lot of videos with Ukrainians killing tanks with their Stugna ATGM system. Stugna uses a laser guiding system, so in theory at least some of the Orc tanks would have a warning system for that, hence they target some way off behind the tank following its movement, then move the crosshair, and the laser, to hit the tank just before the hit.

So maybe the Cope Lantern is a dual purpose thing, it can emit smoke as well so you could see the lasers pointing at you.

Cope cage, cope mesh, cope lantern, see, we're good to go  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 28, 2022, 02:47:17 PM
Those lanterns have become all the rage on social media.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 28, 2022, 06:29:42 PM
I thought it was just one of those charcoal cylinders where you can get your charcoal up to a uniform temperature in five minutes or less and then dump it into your grill to cook?  An army travels on its stomach, ya know...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 28, 2022, 08:58:03 PM
In non-Soviet White Russia, tank crews need so much vodka to cope, that a special flatulence exhaust pipe must be installed for the air to be breathable!  :bd:

A little more seriously, the pipe looks hollow on the end, so maybe there's a dump valve for something to be ignited by the ad hoc charcoal cylinder on the end. So they've been given instructions: "If you detect infrared missile incoming, Comrade, then dump fuel out pipe onto burning pot, it will be hotter than engine and missile will miss nearby!"

This combines all apparent evidence with ignorance and/or insanity, so I feel like it has advantages as a theory.  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 28, 2022, 09:03:55 PM
its just coal in a pot, relax.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 29, 2022, 08:26:02 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 28, 2022, 08:58:03 PM
This combines all apparent evidence with ignorance and/or insanity, so I feel like it has advantages as a theory.  >:D

I think you pretty much hit the nail on the essence of this Grogheads forum in general, my friend!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2022, 08:58:25 AM
remember that drone boat that washed up on shore a few weeks ago....

THEY"RE BACK!!!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1586354919992279041
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2022, 09:15:19 AM
something of a statement by the Czech government.  <:-)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgL1AFpWAAEWbA1?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2022, 09:25:01 AM
and todays turret toss champion!  <:-)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1586330060180848640
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2022, 11:21:24 AM
 <:-)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1586354604815446018
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2022, 12:15:08 PM
ah that sweet meltdown of propaganda.
its like watching a slow motion intervention.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1586395220476039168
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 29, 2022, 03:50:20 PM
That Czech banner is fire!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2022, 09:20:13 PM
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-unleashes-mass-kamikaze-drone-boat-attack-on-russias-black-sea-fleet-headquarters
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 30, 2022, 07:58:02 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgUUQKWXEAALCiq?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 30, 2022, 10:39:17 AM
Dosvidanya, Makarov!  <:-)

Though my favorite part of the low-profile drone attack, was the guy jumping off the police boat -- right into the path of the drone by accident! (He definitely got ramped by the drone, too, though the motor probably didn't hurt him much.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 30, 2022, 12:47:59 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 30, 2022, 10:39:17 AM
Dosvidanya, Makarov!  <:-)

Did they sink it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 30, 2022, 12:54:33 PM
still waiting for confirmation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 30, 2022, 01:20:21 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 30, 2022, 12:54:33 PM
still waiting for confirmation.

My guess is that it is unlikely the frigate was sunk. The drone boats allegedly have a 145 lb warhead (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19893783/ukrainian-suicide-drone-beach-russian-navy-base/) which would explode at the waterline, as opposed to an magnetic influence detonation that occurs below the keel.  The Admiral Makarov is a 3620 ton frigate, that was close to base when attacked.  While such a hit could be a mission kill (if the hit was in an engineering space), the vessel should be able to withstand such a hit and make it back to port, with or without assistance.  Of course, the Russian navy has not shown particularly high damage control standards recently, so I could be wrong about this.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 30, 2022, 01:53:50 PM
I find it kinda interesting that the Ukes seem to be targeting Russian air defence assets more often now than they were a few months ago.  Is this because the Ukrainians have been/or plan to start stepping up aerial attacks in Russian-held territory?  Or does it serve some other purpose I don't understand?

The basic equipment sketch of the BTG suggests a lot of organic anti-air assets for front-line units, but I have no idea how reflective the Russian ToE is of reality these days.  Nor do I have any idea whether Ukrainian attacks on anti-air assets have actually increased.  I just know it seems that way.

Are the Ukrainians trying to more aggressively target rear-area logistical hubs with air assaults?  Are they getting better air-based strike assets in place and trying to soften up Russian air defenses in advance of that?  Do they think something about the coming of winter will shift more emphasis to the air campaign than the ground campaign?  All of the above?  Or is this just a part of the typical "Hit them everywhere all at once and keep them off balanced" strategy that happens in most wars?

I know enough here to be dangerous...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 30, 2022, 02:03:38 PM
Well those maps that are being posted have started listing UK air attacks so I would guess there is more activity by the air force than before.  Also those S-300's are being used to (poorly) target infrastructure instead of air assets so they may want to reduce the attacks on power grid and apartment buildings.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 30, 2022, 02:16:22 PM
QuoteI find it kinda interesting that the Ukes seem to be targeting Russian air defence assets more often now than they were a few months ago.

my guess is that its for their missiles to hit rear targets easier.  as fast as mlrs and homegrown ballistic missiles are systems in the s-300 to s-500 range can supposedly intercept them.  it also makes their use of drones safer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 31, 2022, 01:04:50 PM
in other Black Sea naval news.  in response to the Ukraine drone attack russia has withdrawn from the grain transport agreement.
this however isnt stopping those ships from sailing.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgaJ3eiWYAA6r6_?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.3/centery:44.1/zoom:7

will be very interesting to see how this works out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 01, 2022, 11:56:06 AM
A rather interesting view on how Russia tries to develop their front lines toward the winter. In the north hold on, in center try to force Ukrainians out of the cities into open fields, and in the south retreat to eastern banks of Dnipro while trying to hold Kherson City itself.

Original: https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1587410122011283458

Threadreader + translate (https://threadreaderapp-com.translate.goog/thread/1587410122011283458.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)


url fixed
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 01, 2022, 01:20:01 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 31, 2022, 01:04:50 PM
in other Black Sea naval news.  in response to the Ukraine drone attack russia has withdrawn from the grain transport agreement.
this however isnt stopping those ships from sailing.


  And more oddly even, CNN says the Russians told the Turks that they wouldn't consider reopening the grain deal (which means what?  not shooting at neutral ships?) until
the drone attack on Sevastapol was "investigated" (what on earth does that mean?  Does somebody have to explain that during wars one has enemies that try to blow up
your stuff?) meanwhile so far the ships are sailing loaded with grain.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 01, 2022, 02:32:59 PM
Anyone know what kind of protection the Ukrainian grain ships are getting?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on November 01, 2022, 02:42:40 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 01, 2022, 02:32:59 PM
Anyone know what kind of protection the Ukrainian grain ships are getting?

Well this is where I wouldn't be surprised if NATO stepped in saying that the need to prevent worldwide famine it was needed.  Especially since naval commanders are probably feeling a bit emboldened seeing Russian naval performance so far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 01, 2022, 03:06:33 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 01, 2022, 02:32:59 PM
Anyone know what kind of protection the Ukrainian grain ships are getting?

  In theory, neutrality should work as some kind of protection -- but at sea, since there are no sovereign areas, the shooters of stray missiles have the excuse that they were not
properly informed of the shipping in the area.

  On the other hand, naval powers could say there is some sort of no-shooting zone -- though presumably the Russians would say they don't recognize it.  This sort of missiles going everywhere
happened a lot in the "Tanker War" in the Persian Gulf back during the Iran-Iraq war.

But:

No vessels will move along Black Sea grain corridor on Wednesday
From CNN's Jomana Karadsheh and Jorge Engels
Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations have agreed to not plan for any ship movements in the Black Sea grain corridor on Wednesday, according to a statement from the UN Secretariat at the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul on Tuesday.

UN and Turkish teams on Tuesday carried out 36 inspections aboard outbound vessels, according to the statement. They attempted to inspect another two ships, but the process was cut short because of "issues related to fumigated cargo," the statement said. The inspection reports would be shared with Ukrainian and Russian delegation, it added.

"The UN Secretariat reiterates that movements and inspections carried out after the Russian Federation suspended its participation in implementation activities at the Joint Coordination Centre is a temporary and extraordinary measure," according to the statement.

The JCC said earlier today that three ships had left Ukrainian ports Tuesday, despite Russia's decision to suspend its participation in the arrangement on Saturday.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 01, 2022, 03:30:13 PM
A whole new dimension to the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 01, 2022, 03:47:07 PM
Meanwhile, in the Middle East [from Politico]:

IMMINENT IRANIAN ATTACK ON SAUDI: Officials in Washington and Riyadh are warning of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia, the Wall Street Journal's DION NISSENBAUM reports .

Troops in the region, including American ones, are now on high alert.

"Saudi officials said Iran is poised to carry out attacks on both the kingdom and Erbil, Iraq, in an effort to distract attention from domestic protests that have roiled the country since September," per Nissenbaum.

"We are concerned about the threat picture, and we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis," a National Security Council spokesperson told WSJ. "We will not hesitate to act in the defense of our interests and partners in the region."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 01, 2022, 05:05:32 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 01, 2022, 03:47:07 PM
Meanwhile, in the Middle East [from Politico]:

IMMINENT IRANIAN ATTACK ON SAUDI: Officials in Washington and Riyadh are warning of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia, the Wall Street Journal's DION NISSENBAUM reports .

Troops in the region, including American ones, are now on high alert.

"Saudi officials said Iran is poised to carry out attacks on both the kingdom and Erbil, Iraq, in an effort to distract attention from domestic protests that have roiled the country since September," per Nissenbaum.

"We are concerned about the threat picture, and we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis," a National Security Council spokesperson told WSJ. "We will not hesitate to act in the defense of our interests and partners in the region."

hmmm.... Price of oil had been dropping. Putin getting his new friends to juice the price of oil?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on November 01, 2022, 05:12:10 PM
Regarding the grain convoys, is there any reason they cannot proceed through Romanian and Bulgarian territorial waters (with their permission of course)?  Are those countries afraid of antagonizing Russia?  I realize there are a number of miles the convoys would have to go to get to these waters from their Ukrainian ports.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 02, 2022, 03:23:59 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgegIRtWYAEPONl?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 02, 2022, 03:58:47 AM
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1587325946985684993

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgdQiR9XgAIAHff?format=jpg&name=medium) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgdQiTpXoAAPdzC?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

Satellite images shared by British intelligence show what are likely two MiG-31K FOXHOUND interceptor jets stationed at Belarus' Machulishchi Airfield on Oct. 17, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense. Located near the jets is a large canister, which the Ministry of Defense assesses is likely for the AS-24 KILLJOY air-launched ballistic missile.

The KILLJOY missiles are launched from a high-speed aircraft to go after their targets. Russia claims that the missiles, also known as Kinzhal or "dagger" missiles, can carry conventional or nuclear warheads and are hypersonic, since they are reported to travel at over five times the speed of sound.

Ukraine's current air defenses can't detect and destroy them, according to Hromadske, which could raise alarm about whether Russia intends to use Belarus as a staging ground for an assault on Ukraine, in a repeat of a tactic Russia used early in the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin has leaned on Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko since the early days of the invasion this year to prepare for attacks on Ukraine, including the failed offensive on Kyiv.

But Russia might be conducting the deployment to send a signal to the West and pull Belarus further into the war, rather than preparing an actual plot to unleash an attack on Ukraine, according to British intelligence.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 02, 2022, 06:02:15 AM
Oh my but the Russian casualty figures have been sky high the past few days. Is there a Russian counter going on somewhere where they get blasted to smithereens or what's going on.

I mean, even considering there might be some "extra" on these figures, the trend continues.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1587710515136151552

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgiuTAGWQAEHKRg?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 07:18:00 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 02, 2022, 06:02:15 AM


  I think Zelinsky mentioned a couple of days ago that there was a big Russian attack that got seriously messed up.

And the Russians are back onboard with the grain deal (so what was that about?  Was there really an attack on Sevastapol at all?)

CNN:

Russia said Wednesday it was rejoining the agreement that guarantees safe passage for ships carrying vital grain exports from Ukraine, a move that may help ease concerns about global food supplies that were raised when Moscow suspended its participation in the pact last week.

The decision to reverse course and rejoin the agreement was announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense just days after Moscow cited drone attacks on the city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea as the reason for its withdrawal from the deal.

"The Russian Federation considers that the guarantees received at the moment seem sufficient and resumes the implementation of the agreement," the ministry said in a statement posted on its official Telegram channel.

Russia has blamed Ukraine for the Sevastopol attacks. Ukraine has not confirmed that its forces attacked the city, and the extent of the damage to Russian naval vessels remains unclear.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on November 02, 2022, 09:00:05 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 07:18:00 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 02, 2022, 06:02:15 AM


  I think Zelinsky mentioned a couple of days ago that there was a big Russian attack that got seriously messed up.

And the Russians are back onboard with the grain deal (so what was that about?  Was there really an attack on Sevastapol at all?)

CNN:

Russia said Wednesday it was rejoining the agreement that guarantees safe passage for ships carrying vital grain exports from Ukraine, a move that may help ease concerns about global food supplies that were raised when Moscow suspended its participation in the pact last week.

The decision to reverse course and rejoin the agreement was announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense just days after Moscow cited drone attacks on the city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea as the reason for its withdrawal from the deal.

"The Russian Federation considers that the guarantees received at the moment seem sufficient and resumes the implementation of the agreement," the ministry said in a statement posted on its official Telegram channel.

Russia has blamed Ukraine for the Sevastopol attacks. Ukraine has not confirmed that its forces attacked the city, and the extent of the damage to Russian naval vessels remains unclear.
IRT Russia being back onboard with the grain deal:  My $0.02 on the issue is that Russia realizes that right now it can effectively interfere with the grain convoys, at least not at an unacceptable cost in terms of aircraft and ships.  While Russia could use submarines, that would risk NATO ASW assets being deployed to the AOR.  Also, a sub vs. neutral-flagged merchant ship engagement does not look good from an international political POV.  Given that Russia is unwilling to sink the merchant ships, it might as well take credit for allowing them to continue unmolested to feed the starving in Africa and the Middle East. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 02, 2022, 09:44:27 AM
I would not be totally shocked if the Russians sank one or two grain ships just to prove the can sink them all if they want to.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 10:42:09 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on November 02, 2022, 09:00:05 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 07:18:00 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 02, 2022, 06:02:15 AM


  I think Zelinsky mentioned a couple of days ago that there was a big Russian attack that got seriously messed up.

And the Russians are back onboard with the grain deal (so what was that about?  Was there really an attack on Sevastapol at all?)

CNN:

Russia said Wednesday it was rejoining the agreement that guarantees safe passage for ships carrying vital grain exports from Ukraine, a move that may help ease concerns about global food supplies that were raised when Moscow suspended its participation in the pact last week.

The decision to reverse course and rejoin the agreement was announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense just days after Moscow cited drone attacks on the city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea as the reason for its withdrawal from the deal.

"The Russian Federation considers that the guarantees received at the moment seem sufficient and resumes the implementation of the agreement," the ministry said in a statement posted on its official Telegram channel.

Russia has blamed Ukraine for the Sevastopol attacks. Ukraine has not confirmed that its forces attacked the city, and the extent of the damage to Russian naval vessels remains unclear.
IRT Russia being back onboard with the grain deal:  My $0.02 on the issue is that Russia realizes that right now it can effectively interfere with the grain convoys, at least not at an unacceptable cost in terms of aircraft and ships.  While Russia could use submarines, that would risk NATO ASW assets being deployed to the AOR.  Also, a sub vs. neutral-flagged merchant ship engagement does not look good from an international political POV.  Given that Russia is unwilling to sink the merchant ships, it might as well take credit for allowing them to continue unmolested to feed the starving in Africa and the Middle East.

  As generally accepted in laws of the sea, the Russians cannot legally sink any ships at all since they haven't declared war on anyone.  Moreover, most of the Black Sea is international waters so
to interfere with any shipping they would have to declare war AND declare a blockade -- note that Turkey in closing the straits to the Russians has declared a de facto state of war to exist...but if the
Russians started just sinking ships, it would trigger a legal state of war and cause a lot of routine UN actions that would be mostly bad for Russia.  I think the real function of the Russian verbiage about the
grain shipping is about all they can do diplomatically at the moment and doesn't reflect any serious intent to sink any ships or trigger a legal state of war.

  This does make one wonder about what really happened with the drones at Sevastapol.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on November 02, 2022, 10:49:09 AM
Don't disagree but shit'll get wacky if they do (in a bad way).

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 02, 2022, 11:53:16 AM
The Russians are not invaders. They're, 'De-Nazification Specialists'.  :P  Why not sink a few grain ships and claim it was the same drones that attacked Sebastopol? Stalin would have.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on November 02, 2022, 12:05:28 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 10:42:09 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on November 02, 2022, 09:00:05 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 07:18:00 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 02, 2022, 06:02:15 AM


  I think Zelinsky mentioned a couple of days ago that there was a big Russian attack that got seriously messed up.

And the Russians are back onboard with the grain deal (so what was that about?  Was there really an attack on Sevastapol at all?)

CNN:

Russia said Wednesday it was rejoining the agreement that guarantees safe passage for ships carrying vital grain exports from Ukraine, a move that may help ease concerns about global food supplies that were raised when Moscow suspended its participation in the pact last week.

The decision to reverse course and rejoin the agreement was announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense just days after Moscow cited drone attacks on the city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea as the reason for its withdrawal from the deal.

"The Russian Federation considers that the guarantees received at the moment seem sufficient and resumes the implementation of the agreement," the ministry said in a statement posted on its official Telegram channel.

Russia has blamed Ukraine for the Sevastopol attacks. Ukraine has not confirmed that its forces attacked the city, and the extent of the damage to Russian naval vessels remains unclear.
IRT Russia being back onboard with the grain deal:  My $0.02 on the issue is that Russia realizes that right now it can effectively interfere with the grain convoys, at least not at an unacceptable cost in terms of aircraft and ships.  While Russia could use submarines, that would risk NATO ASW assets being deployed to the AOR.  Also, a sub vs. neutral-flagged merchant ship engagement does not look good from an international political POV.  Given that Russia is unwilling to sink the merchant ships, it might as well take credit for allowing them to continue unmolested to feed the starving in Africa and the Middle East.

  As generally accepted in laws of the sea, the Russians cannot legally sink any ships at all since they haven't declared war on anyone.  Moreover, most of the Black Sea is international waters so
to interfere with any shipping they would have to declare war AND declare a blockade -- note that Turkey in closing the straits to the Russians has declared a de facto state of war to exist...but if the
Russians started just sinking ships, it would trigger a legal state of war and cause a lot of routine UN actions that would be mostly bad for Russia.  I think the real function of the Russian verbiage about the
grain shipping is about all they can do diplomatically at the moment and doesn't reflect any serious intent to sink any ships or trigger a legal state of war.

  This does make one wonder about what really happened with the drones at Sevastapol.

While I agree that legal niceties may prevent the Russians from sinking ships directly, they haven't been too careful about such nuances as international law in the past few months.  ;)  Further, there is always the deniability angle, ie, "we were shooting at Nazi warships , and those merchants got in the way."  There is also mine warfare,  which layers in an entirely new level of deniability. Simply by "accidentally" sinking or damaging some merchants, they may make in risky or impossible for merchants to find crew or insurance to sail in the Black Sea, effectively imposing a blockade without the necessity of damaging too many ships..   But I agree with your larger point: The Russians don't have the military capability to enforce a blockade, at least not at a cost that they are willing to pay.  The real lesson here is that if you stare down a bully (and have the means to back yourself up), they will usually slink away....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 02, 2022, 12:30:12 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on November 02, 2022, 12:05:28 PM

While I agree that legal niceties may prevent the Russians from sinking ships directly, they haven't been too careful about such nuances as international law in the past few months.  ;)  Further, there is always the deniability angle, ie, "we were shooting at Nazi warships , and those merchants got in the way."  There is also mine warfare,  which layers in an entirely new level of deniability. Simply by "accidentally" sinking or damaging some merchants, they may make in risky or impossible for merchants to find crew or insurance to sail in the Black Sea, effectively imposing a blockade without the necessity of damaging too many ships..   But I agree with your larger point: The Russians don't have the military capability to enforce a blockade, at least not at a cost that they are willing to pay.  The real lesson here is that if you stare down a bully (and have the means to back yourself up), they will usually slink away....

But they'd not need to get directly involved even, would they. First release a few mines from a submarine within the international shipping lines then do your best Fawlty Towers "I know nothin" impression  :(

No civilian ship would enter mined waters until an all clear would be declared.

I recall there was at least one mine incident as in mine(s) spotted earlier this spring?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 02, 2022, 12:53:11 PM
Wait, who exactly released the drone footage at water's level in the harbor going after ships, then? And how did whoever that was, get that footage?  ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 01:39:17 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 02, 2022, 12:30:12 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on November 02, 2022, 12:05:28 PM

While I agree that legal niceties may prevent the Russians from sinking ships directly, they haven't been too careful about such nuances as international law in the past few months.  ;)  Further, there is always the deniability angle, ie, "we were shooting at Nazi warships , and those merchants got in the way."  There is also mine warfare,  which layers in an entirely new level of deniability. Simply by "accidentally" sinking or damaging some merchants, they may make in risky or impossible for merchants to find crew or insurance to sail in the Black Sea, effectively imposing a blockade without the necessity of damaging too many ships..   But I agree with your larger point: The Russians don't have the military capability to enforce a blockade, at least not at a cost that they are willing to pay.  The real lesson here is that if you stare down a bully (and have the means to back yourself up), they will usually slink away....

But they'd not need to get directly involved even, would they. First release a few mines from a submarine within the international shipping lines then do your best Fawlty Towers "I know nothin" impression  :(

No civilian ship would enter mined waters until an all clear would be declared.

I recall there was at least one mine incident as in mine(s) spotted earlier this spring?

  I really don't think the Russians want to open the cans of worms involved in sinking ships.  The international community could legally mobilize to protect neutral shipping and effectively close the
Black Sea to any Russian messing around.  Hence the grain ships can sail and the Russians can hope to get some kind of guanantees that their stuff isn't going to be blown up all the time in the Black Sea.  On the other hand its all legally pretty much a win-win for the Ukrainians since the Russians are shooting missiles from all over the place so any hits anywhere on any Russian assets are fair game no matter what goes on with grain ships.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 01:50:40 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 02, 2022, 12:53:11 PM
Wait, who exactly released the drone footage at water's level in the harbor going after ships, then? And how did whoever that was, get that footage?  ???

  Some journalist released the footage.  Ukraine has not said they did the attack.  The Russians blame the Anglo-Saxons for that kind of thing and have summoned the ambassador of the United Kingdom to
explain.  So there you go.  Maybe it was some other migration era tribe -- the Goths?  The Alans?  Even the Avars? or any tribe with Canadian engines -- the Kwaikiult?  The Haida?  The Tsimshin?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 02, 2022, 02:02:53 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 01:50:40 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 02, 2022, 12:53:11 PM
Wait, who exactly released the drone footage at water's level in the harbor going after ships, then? And how did whoever that was, get that footage?  ???

The Russians blame the Anglo-Saxons for that kind of thing and have summoned the ambassador of the United Kingdom to
explain. 

Wow! News of Hastings sure travels slow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 02:30:31 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on November 02, 2022, 02:02:53 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on November 02, 2022, 01:50:40 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 02, 2022, 12:53:11 PM
Wait, who exactly released the drone footage at water's level in the harbor going after ships, then? And how did whoever that was, get that footage?  ???

The Russians blame the Anglo-Saxons for that kind of thing and have summoned the ambassador of the United Kingdom to
explain. 

Wow! News of Hastings sure travels slow.

  It doesn't take a Plantagenet to put a bomb in a boat?

   
England King of England
Kingdom of France King of France (claim)
Holy Roman Empire King of the Romans (titular)
Sicily King of Sicily (claim)
Lordship of Ireland Lord of Ireland
Cyprus Lord of Cyprus
Prince of Wales
Aquitaine Duke of Aquitaine
Normandy Duke of Normandy
Brittany Duke of Brittany
Gascony Duke of Gascony
Cornwall Duke of Cornwall
Gloucestershire Duke of Gloucester
Duke of Clarence
Duke of Aumale
Duchy of Anjou Count of Anjou
Count of Maine
Manche Count of Mortain
Nantes Count of Nantes
Poitou Count of Poitou
Buckinghamshire Earl of Buckingham
Cornwall Earl of Cornwall
Earl of Chester
Essex Earl of Essex
Ulster Earl of Ulster
Norfolk Earl of Norfolk
Kent Earl of Kent
Earl of Lancaster
Earl of Leicester
Earl of Salisbury
Earl of Richmond
Mister Bomb-in-a-Boat
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 02, 2022, 05:36:53 PM
Sir Slash hinted at it, but you guys are overlooking the most obvious explanation if the Russians were to attack any ships:  It's not the boats or the crews that they were attacking, but simply the demonstrably Nazi grain inside the ships that was their target.  Thus, no need for a declaration of war (grain isn't a country!), no need to get third parties involved, and they can continue with their ongoing "special deNazification action".

O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 02, 2022, 08:17:43 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1587826317654982657
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 03, 2022, 06:59:35 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 02, 2022, 05:36:53 PM
Sir Slash hinted at it, but you guys are overlooking the most obvious explanation if the Russians were to attack any ships:  It's not the boats or the crews that they were attacking, but simply the demonstrably Nazi grain inside the ships that was their target.  Thus, no need for a declaration of war (grain isn't a country!), no need to get third parties involved, and they can continue with their ongoing "special deNazification action".

O0

  And the Russians would like to sell their grain and fertilizers too!  They have immense amounts they can't sell  (I guess all you could tell them would be -- stop attacking Ukraine and you can sell your stuff):

(from the Guardian):

Russia has urged the United Nations, which sponsored a deal to free Ukraine's grain shipments from a Russian blockade of its Black Sea ports, to help fulfil the parts of the deal intended to ease Russia's food and fertiliser exports.

The arrangement is due to expire on 19 November, and Reuters reports Moscow has made clear it does not believe enough has been done to ensure it can export its own huge food and fertiliser output despite the barrage of western sanctions imposed in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

"We still do not see any results regarding a second aspect: the removal of obstacles to the export of Russian fertilisers and grain," the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, told a news conference in Amman, Jordan.

"We have once again called on the United Nations secretary general to ensure that he fulfils the obligations he agreed to through his own initiative," Lavrov added. He said the situation needed to be resolved "in the very near future".

"If we're talking about the volumes of fertilisers and grain in question, then these volumes from the Russian side are incomparably higher than from the Ukrainian side."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 03, 2022, 07:57:46 AM
I've been more-or-less out sick with a head cold, so I haven't had a chance until this morning to post a link to Volodymyr Ishchenko's opinion article in Al Jazeera (via MSN) back on October 26th. Seems relevant to Russia's grain/fertilizer export pleas. (Which admittedly also have an important need outside Russia.)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-military-keynesianism/ar-AA13oHZN?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6363b79846674708a388e21de1051a61

The short version is that Russia could, theoretically, use the logistic demand created by its semi-mobilization to bootstrap its economy and thereby provide something like stability and growth for Russian people, as an alternative to Putin doing something drastic like tac-nuking a Ukrainian area to show off his strength.

This would of course require economic capability: my view (I think maybe with general consensus here) has been that Russia is still not ready to deal with even the logistic requirements of its forces in the field (such as they are, even reduced by losses), much less the strain involved by their even-partial mobilization efforts. And that was BEFORE the sanctions -- which have not improved Putin's capabilities.

Stalin at least had the supervillanous foresight to institute his ruthless "socialism in one nation" plan for hyper-industrialization first, before getting into a(nother) shooting war. He practically killed the Soviet Union doing it, and he oriented it in a way that supported his goals yet left him vulnerable to Hitler kicking him repeatedly in the balls first (so to speak), but he did get it done. Putin has done everything back-asswards: so I doubt this plan will work.

But it's still a plan, which is ahead of where he was originally!  ::)

Step one: piss off the Cossacks beyond rational comprehension
Step two: prepare to survive pissing off the Cossacks
Step three: ??
Step four: ....profit?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 03, 2022, 08:11:05 AM
Something's up in Kherson, for instance:

QuoteRussian flag is removed from the main administrative building in Kherson

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1588100657394745344


QuoteKherson update, people driving around Kherson city, are reporting all roadblocks, and soldiers are gone. Flags are taken down from governement buildings. Defensive positions north of the city are abbandoned

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1588113705807581184
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 03, 2022, 09:17:17 AM
The pessimistic side of my brain (which tends to cough up things when I've got a head cold) just quipped bitterly: 'The Orcs didn't want their flags singed by the incoming nuclear fire'.  :buck2: Or maybe drowned in that dam bursting upriver. Or both.

Otherwise I'd say this bodes well for TeamUk!  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 03, 2022, 09:23:05 AM
I keep worrying that the Russians are trying to draw the Ukrainians into 'pockets' to then ambush and destroy them every time there is a Russian retreat. Then I snap back to reality and realize that the Russians have not done that once. Yet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on November 03, 2022, 09:26:40 AM
Why February 24 for the start of the invasion?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russia-ukraine-kyiv-electricity-grid-1.6638410

QuoteOleksandr Kharchenko doesn't believe in coincidences.

The seasoned energy adviser to multiple Ukrainian government departments, agencies and parliamentary members told CBC News he saw a point last winter when his country's electrical grid was at its most vulnerable.

At the time, Ukraine was in the final throes of an almost decade-long process of disconnecting from the Russian and Belarusian energy network and connecting to the European grid.

To do so, Ukraine had to overcome a number of technical challenges, including conducting a test known as "isolation mode" which required it to operate independently without importing any energy over several days.

The critical date when Ukraine's grid entered this fragile state was ... Feb. 24, 2022, the day Russia invaded.

Kharchenko said it came as no surprise to him that Moscow chose that date to launch major hostilities.

...

Over the past few weeks, the Russian military has attempted to do with missiles and "kamikaze" drones what it failed to do by stealth last winter — take down Ukraine's power grid and plunge the country into darkness and cold.

CBC News has spent several months testing Kharchenko's assessment with both current and former top allied military commanders, and hybrid warfare experts.

A blackout with a 'light touch'
They concur with Kharchenko and say Moscow's aim appears to have been to switch off the lights and heat without damaging the infrastructure — in the hopes of occupying the country without being forced to go through a costly rebuild.

...

The system held up
All of the technical preparations, said Kharchenko, were completed at 1 a.m. Eastern European Time (EET) on Feb. 24. The Russian invasion began four hours later.

"I believe that many people in Russia could be sure that if they will attack when we are in isolation mode, we will lose management of the system," said Kharchenko, the managing director of Ukraine's EIRCenter, an independent energy research organization.

"If they attack on that day, it means blackout in many parts of Ukraine. You could imagine, yes? We have a rocket, shells, Russian military and no electricity."

An impressive piece of journalism from the CBC.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 03, 2022, 09:28:50 AM
Yesterday Newsweek reported (via MSN feed) that Russians are building (yet another) secret structure near one of the seven nuclear plants at Zaporizhzhia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-seen-building-mysterious-structure-by-nuclear-power-plant-in-ukraine/ar-AA13EDsi?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=38450f0e00b645afab1a7addbe76c980

QuoteThe Energoatom statement said it "assumes" that Russian officials controlling the area "are preparing a terrorist act using nuclear materials and radioactive waste stored at" the plant.

According to the Energoatom statement, 173 containers containing spent nuclear fuel were at the plant's dry spent fuel storage facility.

"Destruction of these containers as a result of [an] explosion will lead to a radiation accident and radiation contamination of several hundred square kilometers of the surrounding area," Energoatom said.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was seized by the Russian military on March 4, and since then, the occupying forces have used the facility to store equipment and ammunition, Ukrainian officials have said.

So the theoretical plan here would be:

1.) Build storage containers for ammunition near the nuclear plants, some of them secretly wired to blow.
2.) Withdraw from the area.
3.) Blow the ammunition dumps.
4.) Blame the destruction of the ammo on Ukrainian shelling.
5.) Revel in the scorched-earth radioactive dirty bomb results supposedly inflicted by Ukraine upon itself, lolz.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 03, 2022, 09:30:28 AM
^Wow. Ukraine attempting to disconnect from Russia on multiple levels in that piece Uberhaus posted.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 03, 2022, 09:31:32 AM
And that post from MSN is nothing to sneeze at either. 'Jesus Christ Russia' again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 03, 2022, 10:09:39 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 03, 2022, 09:23:05 AM
I keep worrying that the Russians are trying to draw the Ukrainians into 'pockets' to then ambush and destroy them every time there is a Russian retreat. Then I snap back to reality and realize that the Russians have not done that once. Yet.

ya, aint gonna happen.  Ive read enough about how the infantry fight is going to know that small team recon has been one of the key elements of Ukrainian success.  they are really winning the information war on every level.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 03, 2022, 10:57:32 AM
how not to transport anti-tank mines.
before:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fgpey2YWQAA_QLe?format=jpg&name=medium)

after:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fgpe1BSWIAIxnsa?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 03, 2022, 11:57:14 AM
At least they weren't also carrying infantry on the back. Guess they didn't have any infantry to carry...  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on November 03, 2022, 12:26:29 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 03, 2022, 11:57:14 AM
At least they weren't also carrying infantry on the back. Guess they didn't have any infantry to carry...  >:D
Would you want to have a bumpy ride while sitting on an antitank mine?  Wonder if they checked to see if they were inactivated (defused?).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 03, 2022, 12:58:02 PM
oh, theyre definitely diffused now.   :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on November 03, 2022, 03:05:12 PM
Can only imagine some Ukrainian drone driver seeing the poor thing loaded up with danger cakes on it's top deck like that and getting an erection so hard and so fast that it ripped his pants.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 03, 2022, 03:07:45 PM
 :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 03, 2022, 04:00:18 PM
GAH STOP IMAGINING STAR!!  :hide:

Quote from: bobarossa on November 03, 2022, 12:26:29 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 03, 2022, 11:57:14 AM
At least they weren't also carrying infantry on the back. Guess they didn't have any infantry to carry...  >:D
Would you want to have a bumpy ride while sitting on an antitank mine?

Why not? A properly designed and assembled anti-tank mine shouldn't detonate at merely human weights.... oh, right, Russian 'quality'.

So, in that case, what would be the Russian Roulette odds spread, on functional : non-functional : too light? Assume a standard six-shot revolver.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 03, 2022, 06:10:01 PM
QuoteGAH STOP IMAGINING STAR!!  :hide:

you make the false assumption that I wear pants.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on November 03, 2022, 07:09:14 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on October 30, 2022, 12:47:59 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 30, 2022, 10:39:17 AM
Dosvidanya, Makarov!  <:-)

Did they sink it?

Commercial overhead imagery indicates it wasn't sunk: https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1587718656158490626
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 03, 2022, 10:13:47 PM
somewhere in the Ukraine

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgrRQrwWQAEXxRg?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on November 04, 2022, 06:55:47 AM
Did Gerry Anderson design that?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 04, 2022, 07:16:13 AM
They are prepared for Damnation Alley!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 04, 2022, 07:22:43 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 03, 2022, 06:10:01 PM
QuoteGAH STOP IMAGINING STAR!!  :hide:

you make the false assumption that I wear pants.

Thus, I shall make no assumptions here, other than that Star was involved:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-us-air-force-flight-spent-2-hours-drawing-a-phallic-pattern-in-the-air-near-several-russian-military-facilities/ar-AA13IFJ1?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=5a36e565eaf848e2b06f275f9a6b828c#image=AA13IXev|2

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fgk0gFDWYAIIu51?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 04, 2022, 08:43:53 AM
 ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 04, 2022, 09:17:15 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgsyJKgXoAAn4O4?format=jpg&name=small).


Blocking units threaten to shoot their own retreating soldiers in order to compel offensives and have been used in previous conflicts by Russian forces.

The British report comes after reports that Ukrainian spies intercepted audio in late October in which a Russian soldier described being in a "retreat-blocking detachment" tasked with killing any of his comrades trying to flee the front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 04, 2022, 09:22:25 AM
^Can't believe I'm reading that in 2022 and not 1942.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on November 04, 2022, 09:37:43 AM
Could see savvy Ukrainians alerting front line units with something like, "Hey, tell you what; you tell us where those blocking units are and we'll take 'em out.  You can then retreat to your heart's content."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 04, 2022, 10:07:09 AM
^I see new job opportunities opening for you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 04, 2022, 10:13:00 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 04, 2022, 09:22:25 AM
^Can't believe I'm reading that in 2022 and not 1942.

Just motivate them with money !

Another day, another headache for the Kremlin. Protest videos are appearing from several places in the country: recruits or their families complain that the promised money is not forthcoming. To persuade volunteers to go to the front, Moscow had waved a lot of money, but that is not always available. Waging war is therefore expensive: according to estimates, the invasion of Ukraine costs Russia about 900 million euros a day.

"Who scammed us?" A Telegram video shows protesting soldiers in Ulyanovsk barracks, some 700 kilometers outside Moscow. They demand the payment of the 5,000 euros that were promised to them when they signed their contract. In Voronezh, relatives of mobilized people complained to the governor. They have been waiting for a small 1,800 euros compensation since the men left.

The leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin, admitted earlier this week that there are insufficient funds to pay the military and their families.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 04, 2022, 10:20:43 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 04, 2022, 09:22:25 AM
^Can't believe I'm reading that in 2022 and not 1942.

Heck, blocking squads (and regiments) have always been used by communist Russia since November 13, 1918, when Lenin's communist Russia (not yet the Soviet Union per se) tried to kick off WW2 by invading its westward neighbors to ignite the world revolution and march on Berlin, Paris, and London! (Which gives you an idea of the fantasy they were indulging via scientific Marxism, or neo-Marxism rather. ;) )

Worth noting, that the DI update correctly states the blocking squads are (ideologically) meant to enforce offenses, not defenses. They were eventually used for defensive purposes, too, to stiffen the line of resistance, but that was never their original purpose.

I recall seeing mention of the blocking squads long ago earlier this year when Russia was on the offensive but having difficulty moving forward.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 04, 2022, 10:59:23 AM
Russian revolutionaries are planning to convene a congress in exile. They will meet in Warsaw to draft a post-Putin constitution.

These guys will probably only ever be footnotes in history...and all of them will have to be careful around open windows...

But...you never know. Sometimes these governments in exile have legs.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-revolutionaries-prepare-for-post-putin-future/ar-AA13Jliq?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ca33588f23624aff83afc12c0194f4f9 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-revolutionaries-prepare-for-post-putin-future/ar-AA13Jliq?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ca33588f23624aff83afc12c0194f4f9)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 04, 2022, 11:04:38 AM
And this from Pete above:

"Who scammed us?" A Telegram video shows protesting soldiers in Ulyanovsk barracks, some 700 kilometers outside Moscow. They demand the payment of the 5,000 euros that were promised to them when they signed their contract. In Voronezh, relatives of mobilized people complained to the governor. They have been waiting for a small 1,800 euros compensation since the men left.

...along with AT's post immediately above...are so 1917.

Unreal.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 04, 2022, 11:14:06 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 04, 2022, 11:04:38 AM
so 1917.

Putin did promise to take the country back to the era of the Tsars.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 04, 2022, 11:34:49 AM
Great success! And then once Russia implodes into 1000 pieces they can go back to 917. Endless possibilities.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 04, 2022, 11:37:28 AM
I'd be careful about taking those Euro's especially the ones with Putin's face on them. And on the back side, the message, 'Turn Back Over To Front Side Or Be Shot'.  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on November 04, 2022, 11:45:25 AM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on November 04, 2022, 09:37:43 AM
Could see savvy Ukrainians alerting front line units with something like, "Hey, tell you what; you tell us where those blocking units are and we'll take 'em out.  You can then retreat to your heart's content."

I'd be encouraging them to surrender instead and reaping the benefit of videos of happy surrendering Russians
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 04, 2022, 09:51:25 PM
A very nice and colorful summary of the Uk vs Orc war over the past month, produced by the Kings and Generals channel (who do some great docs):

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 06, 2022, 01:48:21 AM
A rather (long and) interesting article from The Times, with a story as how the war of genocide against Ukraine came about. Behind a paywall, but registered users are allowed an article every now and then. Well worth registration imho,

Based on the coming book Overreach, it describes how isolated Putin came to make a decision to invade Ukraine to make it part of Russian World.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-putin-kept-the-plan-to-invade-ukraine-a-secret-nlw087729

A couple of snippets, for instance

QuoteThe ideology of late Putinism was the ideology of the institution that formed the men who led it – the Brezhnev-era KGB.

Putin turned 70 last month – three years older than the life expectancy of the average Russian male. However healthy or otherwise Putin might be, to the siloviki, Putin's "men of power", that meant that time was running out to find a decisive solution to the West's aggression. And that meant dealing once and for all with the problem of Ukraine.

Four men – three of whom were former or current directors of the Federal Security Service (FSB) – were to play a central role in leading Russia to war: Putin himself; Nikolai Patrushev, chairman of the Security Council and Putin's KGB colleague since 1975; Putin's old St Petersburg University classmate and FSB head Aleksandr Bortnikov; and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Of the latter three, it was Patrushev and Bortnikov who were the prime political movers, Shoigu the sometimes hesitant executor.

A bit later

QuoteFrom 2019 onwards Putin was accompanied on all his trips by no fewer than nine staff doctors – and among those who spent time with him were a team of neurosurgeons from the Central Clinical Hospital, Moscow, and Dr Evgeny Silovanov, a renowned oncologist specialising in thyroid cancer in the elderly, who spent 166 days with Putin over 36 visits. The Proekt team suggested that Putin may have undergone surgery for cancer in September 2020. In May 2022, the US film-maker Oliver Stone – who interviewed Putin many times between 2015 and 2019 – claimed that Vladimir Putin has "had this cancer" but "I think he's licked it".

However, in July 2022, the CIA director William Burns said that he had found no evidence of Putin's alleged illness – and quipped dryly that Putin was "entirely too healthy".

Putin's personal contact had for years been limited to a small group of no more than three dozen insiders. During Covid that bubble had shrunk far tighter still.

In the "seclusion and inaccessibility" of his Covid bunker, surrounded by "ideologues and sycophants", Putin developed a "deep belief that Russian domination over Ukraine must be restored", according to former Kommersant newspaper political editor Mikhail Zygar. Or as the CIA's Burns would put it in April 2022, "Putin's risk appetite has grown as his grip on Russia has tightened. His circle of advisers has narrowed and in that small circle it has never been career-enhancing to question his judgment or his almost mystical belief that his destiny is to restore Russia's sphere of influence."

Over two years in isolation, Putin developed a longstanding enthusiasm for historical theorising, which would culminate in an essay on Russia and Ukraine published in July 2021. The essay, according to one senior state TV executive, was "entirely [Putin's] own work... the result of much research and deep thought". His companion in that process of deep thought was an old and trusted friend who was willing to put his business on hold and spend time inside Putin's Covid world – Yury Kovalchuk.

If Nikolai Patrushev was Putin's most powerful silovik colleague and ally, Yury Kovalchuk was his most powerful friend from a different stage of his career – the tangled web of business, Communist Party and organised crime interests that Putin navigated with great skill as consigliere to St Petersburg's mayor, Anatoly Sobchak. According to a Russian government official I will call Sergei Ryzhy, Patrushev was for Putin "an ideal of KGB rectitude" and implacable "vigilant patriotism". His relationship with Kovalchuk was different, if no less close. Kovalchuk was "a man of a less exalted world", said Ryzhy, someone whom Putin trusted with the "more mundane matters" of his personal business interests and those of his immediate family.

So much to quote, but let us conclude with this one:

QuoteBy midsummer of 2021, a "critical mass" of opinion among the innermost circle of Putin's friends and advisers had coalesced around the necessity of landing a "decisive military blow", according to Ryzhy. Exactly what form that blow against Ukraine would take – the creation of a pair of Georgia-style mini-states in Donbas, a Crimea-style annexation or a full-scale strike to decapitate the Zelensky government altogether and install a puppet, pro-Moscow regime – remained undecided. But by late summer of 2021 the "decision in principle" that an invasion was necessary had already, according to Ryzhy, been made by top siloviki Patrushev and Bortnikov. All that remained was to assemble the necessary forces and to persuade Russia's ultimate decision-maker – Putin – to launch the operation.

...and this one, with much more detail in the article covering that puppet meeting in the great hall where Putin barked at this minions just a couple of days before the invasion:

QuotePutin had made his official message clear in the direct and universally comprehensible way he had communicated for two decades – the language of boss–subordinate relations. At its most superficial, he had signalled that recognition of the Donbas republics was right and proper, in the collective and unanimous opinion of Russia's top public statesmen. Subconsciously, but with equal clarity, he had also denoted who was in the inner circle, who was in the chorus, who was on the edges. And most of all, who was the ultimate boss.

But Putin had also signalled something far more profound, something that would ultimately be far more significant for the coming conflict. The most deluded and the most ideologically driven members of Putin's entourage were on the inside, while those with the most detailed real-world knowledge were on the outside. Like King Lear, indeed, Putin showed in his Security Council meeting that he was interested not in debate but in ritual public displays of approval. Dissent was no longer conceivable. There could be no clearer indication that the nature and power dynamics of Putin's court had changed. As had Putin himself. He had become the leader of a nation about to launch a great patriotic war.

An interesting read on hand, but then again the invasion plans were leaked to US Intelligence quite early on. So not sure how small the circle of those in the know was. Looks like an interesting book to read as it comes out:

QuoteExtracted from Overreach by Owen Matthews, published on November 10 by Mudlark (£25)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on November 06, 2022, 02:10:53 AM
Thanks for posting
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 06, 2022, 03:16:31 AM
Another long read for your Sunday, if the previous one speculated on how the war came about, here's Lawrence Freedman then making observations how to bring things back to negotiations table. Not so easy, as Putin clearly prefers - and needs - his war-war to jaw-jaw.

https://samf.substack.com/p/why-putin-prefers-war-war-to-jaw?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Conclusion:

QuoteFaced with stark chocies Moscow might suddenly discover a serious interest in negotiations. Until then, however, there is little choice but for Kyiv, with Western support, to persevere with its efforts to liberate territory until a point is reached where a Russian defeat can no longer be denied – or, to use another Churchillian phrase, to 'keep buggering on.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on November 06, 2022, 07:01:27 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 04, 2022, 09:51:25 PM
A very nice and colorful summary of the Uk vs Orc war over the past month, produced by the Kings and Generals channel (who do some great docs):



Very good summary for the month of October. Thanks for posting!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 06, 2022, 10:22:25 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 06, 2022, 03:16:31 AM
Another long read for your Sunday, if the previous one speculated on how the war came about, here's Lawrence Freedman then making observations how to bring things back to negotiations table. Not so easy, as Putin clearly prefers - and needs - his war-war to jaw-jaw.

That article makes abundantly clear (if it wasn't already) that the key problem, even within Russian context, is Putin.

From which follows the famous Stalin quip, "No man, no problem."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 06, 2022, 01:34:46 PM
From CNN:

Russians are creating the illusion of retreat from Kherson to lure Ukrainian forces into street fighting in the key southern city, Natalia Humeniuk, a spokeswoman for Ukraine's military, said Saturday.

"Russian troops are trying hard to convince everyone they are retreating but at the same time we are seeing objective evidence that they are staying," Humeniuk said in an interview with Ukrainian media.

"There are military units that were based there, and a lot of military equipment is stationed there, and their battle positions are set there as well. The battle positions that were set on the left bank will be used for the support of the battle positions on the right bank."

CNN has not independently verified Humeniuk's claims.

"We understand that Russians are trying to create an illusion of not being there in order to lure Ukrainian forces into the nearby settlements, and the settlements are usually where tough street fighting takes place," she said.

"This is why we know, we see and we foresee what kind of narrative they are trying to feed us, and we are building up our own strategy accordingly," Humeniuk noted. 

According to Humeniuk, Russians are moving their elite units and officers to the left bank of Dnieper River, leaving the ones on the right bank no way to escape or evacuate. "They are leaving the units on the right bank to fight until their last breath," she said.

Some background: It's been difficult to determine the exact situation on the ground in Kherson this week.

A senior Moscow-appointed official remarked Thursday that Russian troops would "most likely" fall back from positions in the southern city. Ukrainian officials have suggested from the start that the statement could be a trap.

Russia has been evacuating citizens from the city. Moscow portrays the move as vital for public safety. Kyiv has likened the evacuations to forced relocation.

Last month, a resident described the situation in Kherson as tense, with people "emotionally exhausted," the streets empty from mid-afternoon onwards and Russian soldiers often seen in civilian clothes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 06, 2022, 01:39:22 PM
And meanwhile in Korea  :o

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/04/asia/north-korea-south-korea-warplanes-friday-intl-hnk/index.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on November 06, 2022, 02:08:03 PM
Here's a twitter thread by Michael Koffman, a CNA analyst, who has just returned from a trip to the Ukraine.  Because he is (I believe) a native Ukrainian, and a  professional military analyst, his opinions are worth noting.  See also [PODCAST] SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD PRESSURE ON RUSSIAN FORCES https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/southward-and-eastward-pressure-on-russian-forces/ (Podcast recorded by Kaufmann after his return from Ukraine):
•   Thoughts on the war by Michael Koffman after a 2 week visit to the Ukraine (CNA analyst) Michael Kofman@KofmanMichael  https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1588160964939096067
•   Nov 3  A few thoughts on the current course of the war, and some impressions after a recent visit to Ukraine with several colleagues from the mil analysis community, including areas near the front in Kherson. /1
•   The general sense one gets is that Ukraine is winning the war & morale is high, but like any military operation, you see friction up close that you can't from a distance. A fair bit of the UA effort is ground up, based on horizontal linkages, volunteers, apps, etc. 2/
•   Russia's military appears at its most vulnerable going into the winter, but UA has seen some modest impact from RU mobilization. Troops are being deployed to try and stabilize Russian lines, and increase force density relative to terrain. 3/
•   The situation in Kherson is clear as mud. Russian forces seemed to withdraw from some parts, evacuated, and drew down, but also reinforced with mobilized personnel. The fighting there is difficult. Despite constrained supply, Russian forces do not appear to be out of ammo. 4/
•   I think this is a fog of war issue right now, with contradictory indicators, but to me the preponderance of evidence points to a Russian decision to steadily retreat from the right river bank and avoid being cut off there, while also trying to exact a high cost. 5/
•   UA folks I spoke to seemed optimistic they can press Russia out of Kherson (west of the river) by the end of the year. There are outstanding questions about the Khakovka dam, and whether RU might sabotage it upon withdrawal. This issue is more salient than talk of RDDs. 6/
•   Still, it remains unclear whether RU intends to fight for Kherson city, perhaps using more expendable or mobilized units while preserving better troops. I'm skeptical RU will abandon all positions on that side without being forcibly pressed out, but could be wrong on this. 7/
•   Forcing a Russian retreat from Kherson's right bank will bring UA systems within range of some ground lines of communication from Crimea. But, it will also give RU forces a large natural barrier, less terrain to defend, and a higher force density to terrain ratio. 8/
•   Overall, it seems unlikely that the war will die down over the winter, even if some months make offensive operations challenging. UA will likely leverage its advantage in range and precision to attrit the Russian military over this period. 9/
•   Strikes across Ukraine are leading to blackouts and electricity conservation. UA is resolving these blackouts quickly, and if anything the bombardment campaign bolsters resolve, but over time the challenges from these strikes could mount, straining equipment and ADS ammo. 10/
•   I've been dismissive of the Belarus vector, despite recent RU deployments there. But the situation merits tracking over the coming months if numbers of Russian troops grow and they are provided heavy equipment. 11/
•   Mobilization, and its potential downstream effect 3-4 months from now introduces a degree of uncertainty. It could extend the war, or make future UA offensives more costly, but I think UA is preparing for a range of possibilities depending on what mobilization yields. 12/
•   On mobilization I largely hold to the thoughts in this earlier thread. It seems RU is taking a staggered approach, throwing some mobilized personnel with little training to stabilize lines, but holding many back to reconstitute units or form reserves. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1572573108246286336?s=20&t=FIbVVthKhVGQw5BY68ywrQ 13/
•   However, RU mil could use mobilized personnel first to  raise manning levels in currently deployed BTGs, many of which seem at 40-50%. Morale of mobilized personnel might be low, but individual replacements can start filling these units out faster than establishing new units. 14/
•   RU strategy appears to be focused on defense over the winter, hoping that mobilization can rebuild their forces. If the pressure lets up they will use the time to get more equipment out of storage (including from Belarus) & potentially ammo from sources like DPRK. 14/
•   In the east RU forces appear desperate to hold the Troitske-Svatove-Kreminna line and are trying to dig in for the winter. Here a UA breakout could prove significant. In general it seems RU approach is to try and fix a defensible line and hope to maintain over the winter. 15/
•   UA objectives are likely to prevent Russian force reconstitution over the winter, generate additional forces in the interim (which requires more equipment), and acquire air defenses to reduce the threat from the Russian strike campaign against critical infrastructure. 16/



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 06, 2022, 04:28:51 PM
I imagine the Russian High Command is fighting two wars. One against the Ukrainians and another against Putin's meddling. They are playing Chess against Ukraine, but Russian Roulette against Vlad. They can survive losing to the Ukes but cannot losing to Putin and his thugs. The Ukrainians are the lesser of the two threats to them right now. NOT a good place to be in.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 06, 2022, 05:54:34 PM
Uncle Vova (Putin) song.

I saw this Russian propaganda video briefly referred to in an NPR documentary...and I had a masochistic urge to check it out.

If the English translation is correct...all I can say is it is pretty sick...real personality cult stuff. Children in military uniforms singing about the "final battle".

"If the Commander in Chief calls for the last battle, Uncle Vova we are with you"

Oh...and the "Samurai" are never to get Sakhalin back...and Alaska is going back to the "homeland"...sorry Anchorage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrBOxEVducM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrBOxEVducM)

The punchline is that this video was first posted in its untranslated Russian version four years ago...

Pardon me while I go throw-up on my shoes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 06, 2022, 07:26:15 PM
Id love to see them try and take Alaska.  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 06, 2022, 11:23:09 PM
I think a pretty succinct take on things.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1589260108537610240.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 07, 2022, 12:00:54 AM
Mr. Snyder apparently chooses to ignore the 30+ progressive Democrats that recently sent a letter to the President urging him to use diplomacy to end the conflict. When their fellow party members found out what they had done, the immediate backlash caused them to deny sending the letter and blamed it on a clerical error by their staffers. I wonder why he left that out?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 07, 2022, 05:19:54 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 07, 2022, 12:00:54 AM
Mr. Snyder apparently chooses to ignore the 30+ progressive Democrats that recently sent a letter to the President urging him to use diplomacy to end the conflict. When their fellow party members found out what they had done, the immediate backlash caused them to deny sending the letter and blamed it on a clerical error by their staffers. I wonder why he left that out?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/senior-white-house-official-involved-in-undisclosed-talks-with-top-putin-aides-11667768988

NSA Jake Sullivan has been having quiet convos, undisclosed until now, with Russian officials over Ukraine in an effort to deescalate amid concerns over nukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 07, 2022, 08:23:47 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on November 06, 2022, 05:54:34 PM
Uncle Vova (Putin) song.

I saw this Russian propaganda video briefly referred to in an NPR documentary...and I had a masochistic urge to check it out.

If the English translation is correct...all I can say is it is pretty sick...real personality cult stuff. Children in military uniforms singing about the "final battle".

"If the Commander in Chief calls for the last battle, Uncle Vova we are with you"

Oh...and the "Samurai" are never to get Sakhalin back...and Alaska is going back to the "homeland"...sorry Anchorage.



The punchline is that this video was first posted in its untranslated Russian version four years ago...

Pardon me while I go throw-up on my shoes.

Reminds me a lot of the propaganda invasion songs being promoted by Stalin (as "Marshal of the Revolution") several months before Hitler invaded them.

Meanwhile, step x of the Putin Plan: piss off the samurai. Surely this will bring victory!  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 07, 2022, 09:15:59 AM
Putin tells Macron that Hiroshima and Nagasaki demonstrate you don't have to nuke a major city to win a war:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-tells-macron-hiroshima-is-proof-you-don-t-have-to-launch-nuclear-strike-on-major-city-to-win-war/ar-AA13NHjj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=5e528e47e99f457e8e92593246426fa9

It does however help if you already practically nuked 63 other major and similarly sized cities off the face of the entire country over the past year, plus have Stalin declaring war on your enemy.  ::) ::) ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 07, 2022, 09:33:20 AM
Stories like this make me vomit a little bit:

"The Mail on Sunday reported a French government source as saying the Russian president referenced Hiroshima in a call with Mr Macron which left the French president "distinctly alarmed"."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 07, 2022, 09:45:21 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 07, 2022, 12:00:54 AM
Mr. Snyder apparently chooses to ignore the 30+ progressive Democrats that recently sent a letter to the President urging him to use diplomacy to end the conflict. When their fellow party members found out what they had done, the immediate backlash caused them to deny sending the letter and blamed it on a clerical error by their staffers. I wonder why he left that out?

I think posting links to obviously partisan articles, without any inflammatory comments, still runs afoul of the "let's please keep this out of R&P topic areas". 

Starfury, man, you're peeing in the pool of nonpartisan discourse on Ukraine...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 07, 2022, 10:41:35 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 07, 2022, 09:45:21 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 07, 2022, 12:00:54 AM
Mr. Snyder apparently chooses to ignore the 30+ progressive Democrats that recently sent a letter to the President urging him to use diplomacy to end the conflict. When their fellow party members found out what they had done, the immediate backlash caused them to deny sending the letter and blamed it on a clerical error by their staffers. I wonder why he left that out?

I think posting links to obviously partisan articles, without any inflammatory comments, still runs afoul of the "let's please keep this out of R&P topic areas". 

Starfury, man, you're peeing in the pool of nonpartisan discourse on Ukraine...

This is true. There is, of course, some unavoidable cross-over and we will permit some of it so long as it is relevant to the overall strategic picture and discussion. The problem with the article posted is that it suggests that Republicans are the only ones raising questions about the costs to the US of the war in Ukraine. This is false for two reasons. First, it is not just Republicans raising these questions. There are still some democrats who haven't become entirely unhinged who are questioning it, as well. Second, by-in-large, support for the war within the mainstream parties is practically unanimous. It is one of the few things the majority of Republicans and Democrats in government actually agree on. Doesn't this make you scratch your head? If not, it should.

The bigger issue is the shunning anyone receives for simply suggesting that questions should be asked. This should also make you scratch your head.

Discussion begins at 3:15.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 07, 2022, 10:54:43 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 07, 2022, 09:33:20 AM
Stories like this make me vomit a little bit:

"The Mail on Sunday reported a French government source as saying the Russian president referenced Hiroshima in a call with Mr Macron which left the French president "distinctly alarmed"."

If I remember this correctly it was in this context : Russia (Soviets) never used a nuclear weapon but the west did so don't blame us, the others did it first.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 07, 2022, 11:22:44 AM
I am glad to hear somebody is talking to the Russians, or trying at least. Talk is free and can only improve things if done diplomatically and honestly.  :clap:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 07, 2022, 11:37:10 AM
^That is true...silver lining for the mushroom cloud?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 07, 2022, 12:09:25 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 07, 2022, 11:37:10 AM
^That is true...silver lining for the mushroom cloud?

Heh, well put.

The problem of course is that Russia refuses to talk honestly, as previously mentioned by several analysts. We're also still at a point where neither side wants to give up anything (although for somewhat different reasons.)

If the problem is supposed to be fear of NATO using Ukraine as a staging point for invading Russia, then a diplomatic solution could be reached with treaties not to do that, whereupon Russia could position itself as mission accomplished. But (1) that was always nothing more than an excuse for Putin to try finishing out his MUCK plan (Moldova, Ukraine, Crimea, Kazakhstan), so being a lie it would weigh nothing with Putin -- unless and until he's desperate to save himself from a coup; and (2) Putin has quadrupled his bet by annexing those extra four areas as Russian forever, and Ukraine means to take those AND the Crimea back. So until that factor has been solidly resolved, Putin has no room to negotiate anymore. And if the Uks take those areas back, what's Putin going to do: admit the referendum was a sham?? Any negotiation along the line of "We stopped NATO from attacking us through the Ukraine" is going to run into the problem of "even though we sacrificed the Crimea and those other four Russian areas forever to do it!"

Putin remains the problem personally. Once he's gone, his successor COULD have room to maneuver diplomatically on the excuse that Putin screwed up.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 07, 2022, 03:14:56 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 07, 2022, 12:09:25 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 07, 2022, 11:37:10 AM
^That is true...silver lining for the mushroom cloud?

Heh, well put.

The problem of course is that Russia refuses to talk honestly, as previously mentioned by several analysts. We're also still at a point where neither side wants to give up anything (although for somewhat different reasons.)

If the problem is supposed to be fear of NATO using Ukraine as a staging point for invading Russia, then a diplomatic solution could be reached with treaties not to do that, whereupon Russia could position itself as mission accomplished. But (1) that was always nothing more than an excuse for Putin to try finishing out his MUCK plan (Moldova, Ukraine, Crimea, Kazakhstan), so being a lie it would weigh nothing with Putin -- unless and until he's desperate to save himself from a coup; and (2) Putin has quadrupled his bet by annexing those extra four areas as Russian forever, and Ukraine means to take those AND the Crimea back. So until that factor has been solidly resolved, Putin has no room to negotiate anymore. And if the Uks take those areas back, what's Putin going to do: admit the referendum was a sham?? Any negotiation along the line of "We stopped NATO from attacking us through the Ukraine" is going to run into the problem of "even though we sacrificed the Crimea and those other four Russian areas forever to do it!"

Putin remains the problem personally. Once he's gone, his successor COULD have room to maneuver diplomatically on the excuse that Putin screwed up.

  If you look at it more generically from the Ukrainian point of view: if Russia gets some kind of ceasefire, that just means the Russians have an easier time building up for another attack.
After all, Ukraine gave up its nukes with the guarantee (or understanding?) that Russia wasn't going to attack them.  Now nothing guarantees Ukrainian security except continuing its war
with Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 07, 2022, 08:33:07 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 07, 2022, 09:45:21 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 07, 2022, 12:00:54 AM
Mr. Snyder apparently chooses to ignore the 30+ progressive Democrats that recently sent a letter to the President urging him to use diplomacy to end the conflict. When their fellow party members found out what they had done, the immediate backlash caused them to deny sending the letter and blamed it on a clerical error by their staffers. I wonder why he left that out?

I think posting links to obviously partisan articles, without any inflammatory comments, still runs afoul of the "let's please keep this out of R&P topic areas". 

Starfury, man, you're peeing in the pool of nonpartisan discourse on Ukraine...

the article talks about how both US political parties have failed to formulate a cohesive policy about russia for decades.
he then goes on to say the both parties agree about China.  I'll also repeat JH's statement that both parties are pretty united in sending aid to the Ukraine.  just because it leads of with Republican in the first sentence doesnt make whats said partisan or runs afoul of being a r&p topic. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 07, 2022, 08:36:12 PM
moving past that, what do you think of the points made?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: War Dog on November 07, 2022, 10:00:53 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 07, 2022, 08:36:12 PM
moving past that, what do you think of the points made?

I just read a very good twitter thread from Brynn Tannehill who parallels alot of Snyder's points.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1589616853709512704 (https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1589616853709512704)

Brynn Tannehill:

"Far from being a drain on US, support for Ukraine is a long term investment that's already paying off as the Russian military crumbles. Rather than being a national security risk, it allows the US to provide more credible deterrence against aggression in the Pacific."

Supporting Ukraine all the way to the finish is in US, and global interests. If we don't want a war in PACOM, one major piece of our long term deterrence strategy has to be full continued support for Ukraine. Period.

Timothy Snyder:

Reversing the U.S. policy of aiding Ukraine will undo all of these gains. There is still time to revive Russia and reassure China, which is what ending support of Ukraine will mean. Such a policy reversal would make Americans far less safe and secure.

My concerns about the Russian invasion of Ukraine are the prevention of genocide and the defense of democracy. But those who think first of U.S. interests should acknowledge what Ukrainians are doing for American security. The least we can do is be on our own side

By the way, Timothy Snyder's On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century should be required reading for EVERYONE.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 07, 2022, 10:54:43 PM
I don't disagree with any of the points in Mr. Snyder makes in his article other than the obviously biased and wrong title that it is Republicans only who oppose the support for Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 07, 2022, 11:18:02 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 07, 2022, 10:54:43 PM
I don't disagree with any of the points in Mr. Snyder makes in his article other than the obviously biased and wrong title that it is Republicans only who oppose the support for Ukraine.

I didnt get that take at all considering he points out shard blame and agreement.
also, there is no title.  its a combined twitter thread. 
its been a GOP talking point this campaign season about stopping  funding.  I also get that its a talking point on the trail and not whats actually being done in both houses to help the Ukraine.  both parties want to help and both parties have questions.
holy fuck, government actually working as intended.  <:-)

Im glad we agree that helping the Ukraine now solves a lot more problems later.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: War Dog on November 08, 2022, 12:27:57 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 07, 2022, 10:54:43 PM
I don't disagree with any of the points in Mr. Snyder makes in his article other than the obviously biased and wrong title that it is Republicans only who oppose the support for Ukraine.
Except for the fact that 11 GOP senators and 57 GOP house members (the only members who voted 'no') opposed the 40 billion dollar Ukraine aid package back in May. Also McCarthy recently stated there would be no more blank check for Ukraine if the Republicans win back the House majority this week. This demonstrates a shift and divide with McConnell who has been supportive of consistent aid to Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on November 08, 2022, 01:41:42 AM
Well I don't mind supporting them but I sure wish there was inspector General oversight on just where in the hell all the money is going.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 08, 2022, 06:13:56 AM
Ok...now the conversation is shifting to the unnecessarily political without any bearing on the strategic situation. Bring it back to the actual war and not who is good or bad for supporting it or not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 08, 2022, 08:33:42 AM
From the Wall Street Journal (via MSN newsfeed),

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-sets-conditions-for-genuine-peace-talks-with-russia/ar-AA13RVB1?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=381dcbf2b83c48499a29d8f07107ecc6

The conditions are what you'd expect, although the key condition back in September probably remains in place: "Since Mr. Putin said in late September that swaths of Ukraine's east and south belonged to Russia, Kyiv has said it wouldn't negotiate with Moscow until there is a different leader in the Kremlin."

Putin personally remains the first problem.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 08, 2022, 11:21:50 AM
Interesting. A couple of months ago that statement would've gotten almost anyone else who said it, banned form Twitter & Facebook as a Putin-Lover. This can only be a positive sign. Remember the old Communist saying that there's 3 reasons to negotiate. To secure a victory, stave-off a defeat, or open a new front against the enemy. Right now it'll probably be more of a, 'New Front' thing I bet but who knows?

This time next year, Putin and Zelensky the Nobel Peace Prize?  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 08, 2022, 12:53:54 PM
Has Putin ever been Time Man of the Year?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 08, 2022, 01:03:27 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 08, 2022, 12:53:54 PM
Has Putin ever been Time Man of the Year?

No. But both Hitler and Stalin were, so he'd be in good company.

EDIT: He is on the list...2007!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 08, 2022, 01:10:19 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 08, 2022, 12:53:54 PM
Has Putin ever been Time Man of the Year?

Yes. 

(https://content.time.com/time/magazine/archive/covers/2007/1101071231_400.jpg)

http://content.time.com/time/specials/2007/personoftheyear/article/0,28804,1690753_1690757,00.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-time-idUSN1956834820071219

But as Time stated : TIME's Person of the Year is not and never has been an honor. It is not an endorsement. It is not a popularity contest. At its best, it is a clear-eyed recognition of the world as it is and of the most powerful individuals and forces shaping that world—for better or for worse.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 08, 2022, 01:11:47 PM
^That portrait is piercing what's left of my soul.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 08, 2022, 01:23:30 PM
According to Russian state media I'll be asking for a favor shortly  :idiot2:


All of Europe is cutting wood en masse to get through the winter. Just like in the Middle Ages, Putin says.

Did you know that the Tiergarten Park in the center of Berlin has lost many trees in the last few months? This is because the inhabitants of the city secretly come to chop wood because otherwise their homes would no longer be heated. Russians learn such nonsense from the state media these days.

Tiergarten still has all its trees. A worker from the Berlin Mitte district office, who checked the news on the spot, did not see any felled trees. He tells this to Correctiv, an organization that does fact-checking. "By the way, there are hardly any buildings in Berlin that are still heated with wood."

As is often the case with Russian propaganda, the report from a credible source – in this case the Bloomberg news agency – is slightly tinkered with to fit the news seamlessly into the Russian media war. Bloomberg had only written that wood as a fuel is gaining popularity in Europe.

On the Russian talk shows, where the war is being stirred up, one speaker even knew that the animals will leave Europe. "For there will be no more forests, all the trees will be stoked." Russian critical journalist Mikhail Zigar, who has been writing as a columnist for Der Spiegel since fleeing Moscow, has a few more examples. The Europeans supposedly throw dried manure into their ovens because there is no more firewood. And soon we will run out of food.


Google translation from a local article.

This is meant to make Russians feel better about their own fate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 08, 2022, 01:27:14 PM
When this is all over it will be a revelation to see Russians' faces when they learn the truth.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 08, 2022, 01:51:56 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 08, 2022, 01:27:14 PM
When this is all over it will be a revelation to see Russians' faces when they learn the truth.

"We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 08, 2022, 01:55:34 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 08, 2022, 11:26:31 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_banners/1343475738/1662352065/1500x500)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 09, 2022, 09:21:59 AM
ouch

https://twitter.com/i/status/1590113990645907456
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 09, 2022, 10:14:17 AM
^It became a true 'meterorit'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on November 09, 2022, 11:15:08 AM
Whoo-boy. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 09, 2022, 11:45:02 AM
General Sergei Surovikin, who is in overall command of the war, said in a television commentary an hour ago that it was no longer possible to supply the city of Kherson.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu on Wednesday ordered his troops to withdraw from the western bank of the Dnieper River in the face of Ukrainian attacks on the southern city of Kherson.
General Sergei Surovikin proposes to take the defenses on the east bank of the river.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 09, 2022, 12:46:15 PM
 :clap: O0

I suspect if the Uks can drive the Orcs over the river, they'll stop their advance for a while and set up bombardment stations (so to speak) while aiming for a sweep southward from up where they've already crossed the river. But that may also depend on the quality of troops facing them across the river, and how far back their defenses go (such as they are): currently it looks like the Rusks aren't (or weren't?) planning to defend the river closely, which would invite the Ukrainians into staging beacheads which theoretically could become kill zones.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 09, 2022, 12:55:43 PM
Kherson sure is an interesting place to be right now:

From the BBC: Kirill Stremousov: Senior Russian Kherson official dies in car crash, officials say:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63572668
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on November 09, 2022, 01:11:00 PM
Man, I'd be screaming and acting like Patton to push the advance hard if the Rus are on the back foot.

Glad I don't have that responsibility.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 09, 2022, 01:17:52 PM
They'd still want to push hard, of course, just not have the main push be over the river. Let that be the secondary push while the main push comes from the north (from where they already crossed the river).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 09, 2022, 02:09:02 PM
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on November 09, 2022, 01:11:00 PM
Man, I'd be screaming and acting like Patton to push the advance hard if the Rus are on the back foot.

Glad I don't have that responsibility.

  I don't think the Ukrainians have that much of an advantage in terms of mobility and firepower over the Russians.  And that river and the general weirdness of the situation seems to
legitimately inspire a lot of caution.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 09, 2022, 02:39:08 PM
The 'thunder run' - adapted by Ukraine:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 09, 2022, 03:38:03 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 09, 2022, 02:39:08 PM
The 'thunder run' - adapted by Ukraine:



That's a really interesting video.  Thanks for sharing.

As an aside on the commentator, I will say that I inherently distrust skinny guys talking fast with English accents and huge beards.  I can't tell you why, but it's a deeply held conviction of mine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 09, 2022, 04:18:26 PM
 ;D me too, I also don't know why...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 09, 2022, 08:23:03 PM
this post is about how the russian state media spin US elections to their audience.  Im not posting this to disparage any political party, its just a look into how they think and shape opinions for their own domestic consumption.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1590377796655673345
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 09, 2022, 10:57:29 PM
Then surely you must agree that everything in the video the Russians said is wrong and a complete fantasy. Otherwise you'd be in agreement with them. Correct?  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 09, 2022, 11:03:22 PM
you can draw your own conclusions from the clip provided. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 10, 2022, 01:35:22 AM
wow! +10 for uparmored Humvees!  watch till the end.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1590576786358009856
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 10, 2022, 08:38:10 AM
Holy moly...NuckingFutsYuri2024
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 10, 2022, 08:49:12 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 10, 2022, 01:35:22 AM
wow! +10 for uparmored Humvees!  watch till the end.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1590576786358009856

The drone footage reminds me so much of Close Combat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 10, 2022, 09:12:20 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on November 10, 2022, 08:49:12 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 10, 2022, 01:35:22 AM
wow! +10 for uparmored Humvees!  watch till the end.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1590576786358009856

The drone footage reminds me so much of Close Combat.

Absolutely!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 10, 2022, 09:53:56 AM
Complete with squirrely AI on the infantry and armor, represented by the Russians.  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 10, 2022, 10:26:24 AM
Yeah, that's what happened to my vehicles in Close Combat too. A lot.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 10, 2022, 02:27:42 PM
Another good video...what happens next?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 10, 2022, 09:21:50 PM
it seems the russians are having a very very very bad down south.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 10, 2022, 09:24:02 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhPiTuAXkAA0oyY?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 11, 2022, 08:21:46 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 10, 2022, 09:21:50 PM
it seems the russians are having a very very very bad down south.  <:-)

The Associated Press report on all Orcs apparently having withdrawn, with their equipment (supposedly, aside from mines), from Kherson's west bank. Which is most of Kherson.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-europe-moscow-government-and-politics-0c1bb4cf5a3fa4d2d05aa10ef2929d39

"The Kremlin remained defiant Friday, insisting the development in no way represented an embarrassment for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Moscow continues to view the entire Kherson region as part of Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters."

So, withdrawing more quickly than military experts thought you'd be able to, from the only regional capital you managed to take, in an area you now insist is part of Russia forever (after an overtly sham referendum), one month after facetiously celebrating its annexation, is not an embarrassment. One wonders what WOULD count as an embarrassment to Russia! Nuking their own city-forever?? (Probably not...  :buck2:  On their previously stated gangster rationale, that would only triumphantly demonstrate they have the right to do anything they want to Kherson, which other nations would then respect.)


The New York Times reports and comments on the withdrawal: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-name-is-absent-as-russians-discuss-retreat-in-ukraine/ar-AA13ZfWW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=7e9920ac28c944e686c4b2c74f80f22f

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 11, 2022, 08:28:35 AM
Meanwhile, the Telegraph (London I think) reports that, according to some analysts, Russia tried to test the nuclear tsunami torpedo back when the Belgorod was detected leaving the Arctic, some weeks earlier -- but failed to do so! Thus explaining why the sub left the area without apparently doing any testing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-tried-and-failed-to-test-nuclear-torpedo/ar-AA13YjEs?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=7e9920ac28c944e686c4b2c74f80f22f

It occurs to me that a few such torpedos, which can carry conventional explosives, but which is itself a nuclear-powered drone, could be set to navigate to a fairly precise location thousands of miles away (by travel route), and then attack an underwater structure -- cough, ahem ;). Although I doubt that's possible without leaving a small radioactive trace footprint from its motor.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 11, 2022, 08:57:57 AM
Seems they've been evacuating their forces for a while, as some rumours have said, with mobiks thrown in to maintain a presence there. I guess we'll learn more in a few days or weeks time. Here's hoping for massive equipment losses, and tons of surrendering soldiers are welcomed in my book as well.

Ukrainian counterattack slowed in many places by celebrating crowds (https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591105306700177408) <- now with a recent clip! :bd:

Enjoy your Friday and free Kherson City as well!

Ukrainian refugee sings with Lithuanians FRIDAY in support for Ukraine

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 11, 2022, 09:44:55 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 11, 2022, 08:57:57 AM

Here's hoping for massive equipment losses, and tons of surrendering soldiers are welcomed in my book as well.

Maybe not. He's been quite reliable with his assessments. Also, "battalions" have often shrunk in size to companies, so there's that too.

QuoteOn the western side of the Dnieper there are no longer any regular and large RUS forces. In several places, the Ukrainians are liquidating the last RUS shielding forces, which have not managed to withdraw beyond the Dnieper, among others east of the Antonowski Bridge.

In general, the AU achieved great military and political success, but the retreat of the RUS itself was quite successful, i.e. we do not have whole RUS brigades broken. At most, a few battalions that did not manage to withdraw in time or the AU caught them in the field.

https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1591060163167125505
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 11, 2022, 09:50:13 AM
Russians are apparently taking heavy losses in Kherson region as they retreat, and the Ukrainians pound them.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-suffering-catastrophic-losses-while-retreating-report/ar-AA1404sf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ea7f34763fa549ca979d125cbbe44b3e (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-suffering-catastrophic-losses-while-retreating-report/ar-AA1404sf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ea7f34763fa549ca979d125cbbe44b3e)

The thing I don't get is why the Russians announced their retreat.

From the military point of view, you never tell your enemy your intention to retreat.

I can only think the announced retreat was for political reasons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 11, 2022, 09:56:01 AM
One of the articles I linked to earlier, suggested that the announcement was theatrically staged by/using "General Apocalypse" to shield Putin publicly from the political fallout. Hopefully not to involve literal fallout...  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 11, 2022, 10:15:04 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on November 11, 2022, 09:50:13 AM
Russians are apparently taking heavy losses in Kherson region as they retreat, and the Ukrainians pound them.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-suffering-catastrophic-losses-while-retreating-report/ar-AA1404sf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ea7f34763fa549ca979d125cbbe44b3e (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-suffering-catastrophic-losses-while-retreating-report/ar-AA1404sf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ea7f34763fa549ca979d125cbbe44b3e)

The thing I don't get is why the Russians announced their retreat.

From the military point of view, you never tell your enemy your intention to retreat.

I can only think the announced retreat was for political reasons.

This is why many still believe it is a trap for the Ukrainians.

Announce a retreat but keep a part of your army (maybe in civilian clothes) in a booby trapped city.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 11, 2022, 11:30:34 AM
The Ukrainian 'massive crowd' clip is allegedly from March when the Russians came in, according to the posts below it on The Twitface.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 11, 2022, 11:34:01 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 11, 2022, 11:30:34 AM
The Ukrainian 'massive crowd' clip is allegedly from March when the Russians came in, according to the posts below it on The Twitface.
Duh. So many videos out and of course I picked an old one. Edited with a new clip. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 11, 2022, 11:42:01 AM
^Not blaming you! Blaming...The Twitface.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 11, 2022, 11:48:25 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 11, 2022, 11:42:01 AM
^Not blaming you! Blaming...The Twitface.

:smitten:

QuoteThe Kherson front is collapsing faster than Twitter.

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1591044944369704961
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 11, 2022, 12:03:18 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 11, 2022, 12:04:10 PM
The big question now is will the Ukrainians continue to push across the river toward the Crimea or settle for what they've got right now? One thing's pretty obvious, Putin's not capable enough to pull-off a modern day Stalingrad by trying to hold Kherson.  L:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 11, 2022, 12:08:17 PM
Zelensky has stated 'we want all of Ukraine back.' Including Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea. What that will look like in reality who knows...I just hope it doesn't involve the Russians lobbing tactical nukes as they 'advance to the rear.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 11, 2022, 12:10:58 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 11, 2022, 12:04:10 PM
The big question now is will the Ukrainians continue to push across the river toward the Crimea or settle for what they've got right now? One thing's pretty obvious, Putin's not capable enough to pull-off a modern day Stalingrad by trying to hold Kherson.  L:-)

  They don't have to cross the river.  They are already across it north of there.  I would imagine that if the Ukrainians launch a major offensive any time soon, it will be to cut off the land connection to the east of Crimea clear down to the Sea of Azov.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 11, 2022, 01:24:34 PM
BBC also out with news that Russia's evacuated the west bank of Dnipro River.

QuoteWhen the new commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Gen Sergei Surovikin, appeared on television on Wednesday, apparently asking the defence minister's permission to order his troops to leave the city, this staged bit of theatre marked the end of the process, not the beginning. Anything of value had already gone.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63598805
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 11, 2022, 07:33:27 PM
love these folks!

https://twitter.com/Official_NAFO
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 11, 2022, 10:26:04 PM
My sense is that specific details of what is happening to the Russian Army around Kherson remain extremely vague.  We know that the Russians retreating in the past have seen disastrous results.  All we have here is a couple vague articles.

With the Russians having to cross at bridge locations or using whatever ferries and light boats might still be working, I can imagine that they're still losing vehicles at a hefty rate as Ukrainian heavy weapons work over those concentrations thoroughly.  OTOH, the phrase "I can imagine" pretty much means what it says.  Given the Ukrainian caution, it's obvious that his been more of a retreat than a route.

Question for those folks on this board who know more about certain topics than I do:  Does it get cold enough in Ukraine that the Dnieper ever freezes over enough to get vehicles across?  Or even men?  And how much artillery does it take to shatter a frozen river?  Or do you just build a pontoon bridge on top of the ice?



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 12, 2022, 12:34:43 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhSvny0XEAE2Jsh?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 12, 2022, 04:59:55 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 11, 2022, 10:26:04 PM
Question for those folks on this board who know more about certain topics than I do:  Does it get cold enough in Ukraine that the Dnieper ever freezes over enough to get vehicles across?  Or even men?  And how much artillery does it take to shatter a frozen river?  Or do you just build a pontoon bridge on top of the ice?
I have a friend who traveled there quite a lot some ten years ago, asked this very same question a few weeks back. No, it does not properly freeze over, even though there's spells of cold then it thaws the next day, especially towards south where Kherson lays. Vehicles, definitively not. On foot, very much doubt but just maybe possible in certain areas for a quite limited time (or no, not really by foot either). 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 12, 2022, 12:53:14 PM
So how do engineers cross a semi-frozen river in the winter?  Too much ice for boats, you can't just build a pontoon bridge across a river in the face of enemy fire.  Maybe the answer is that you wait for the river to thaw and try to cross with boats. 

Or send across small teams on ice skates. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 12, 2022, 02:59:25 PM
The woman in Star's pic above is definitely old enough to have lived through WWII in the same exact area. Hard to imagine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 12, 2022, 05:23:53 PM
this is one of many reasons the Ukrainians arent in the mood to talk with russian scumbags.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1591477593202692096
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 12, 2022, 06:51:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 12, 2022, 05:23:53 PM
this is one of many reasons the Ukrainians arent in the mood to talk with russian scumbags.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1591477593202692096

That's heavy, that's why the 40 billion aid package is money well spent.  I think the mid term showed people care about Ukraine far more than trumps base thought.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 12, 2022, 07:17:22 PM
Quote from: Skoop on November 12, 2022, 06:51:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 12, 2022, 05:23:53 PM
this is one of many reasons the Ukrainians arent in the mood to talk with russian scumbags.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1591477593202692096

That's heavy, that's why the 40 billion aid package is money well spent.  I think the mid term showed people care about Ukraine far more than trumps base thought.

You think aid to Ukraine was a key issue in the midterm elections? lol.

(https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ft_2022.11.03_election-roundup_01.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 12, 2022, 08:31:41 PM
List shows no Ukraine on there unless that's under the foreign policy part.  But like I said money well spent in my book when you see a Ukrainian soldier running into the arms of his liberated grandmother.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 12, 2022, 09:49:32 PM
Would you feel the $40 Billion was well spent if a big chunk of it went into a crew of rich people's pockets instead of weapons to defend Ukraine? Or if a lot of those weapons ended-up in the hands of terrorists planning the next attack on NYC? Can anyone say for certain that they won't or haven't? I certainly hope we don't only have CNN & MSNBC looking into this.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 12, 2022, 10:11:14 PM
 ::)

but that isnt happening.  so whats your point?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on November 12, 2022, 10:22:15 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 12, 2022, 09:49:32 PM
Would you feel the $40 Billion was well spent if a big chunk of it went into a crew of rich people's pockets instead of weapons to defend Ukraine? Or if a lot of those weapons ended-up in the hands of terrorists planning the next attack on NYC? Can anyone say for certain that they won't or haven't? I certainly hope we don't only have CNN & MSNBC looking into this.

For the results we've been getting so far?  Yes, absolutely.  Hell, I bet every military budget in the world (including the US military) is getting siphoned by "rich people" (or probably just random assholes in the line of manufacturing/requisitioning/etc.)

Do you have any links to support this idea about Ukrainian arms falling into terrorist hands who are planning attacks on US soil?  Or did you pull that out of your ass to make a point?   :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 12, 2022, 10:43:48 PM
just looking at the amount of lost soviet equipment leads to an overwhelming yes to that question.  the vaunted russian military has been laid bare to its utter failure and inability to be taken seriously.  priceless.  <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on November 12, 2022, 10:49:47 PM
And considering exactly 0 American servicemembers have been killed or wounded in action, I'd call that a rate!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 12, 2022, 10:57:47 PM
fuck russia! 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhWvh91XEAEyXg2?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 13, 2022, 01:29:22 AM
I think it's reasonable to say that we'd be fools if we thought Ukraine was exempt from the sorts of profiteering that went on in every country in the world in WW II (including the USA, Britain, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and the Soviet Union).  I'd be tickled pink if we don't end up reading about anything shady happening in Ukraine or any of those weapons making it into the wrong hands. 

But I'm not counting on that as a precondition for the money in Ukraine to be well spent.  Even if turns out that the people in charge of Ukraine are a bunch of crazy-ass kleptocrats, I still like the notion of setting a precedent where one crazy-ass kleptocrat nation can't willfully decide to invade another sovereign, crazy-ass kleptocrat nation.

It's fair to acknowledge that 40% of Republicans considered Russia an ally in 2018.  It's also fair to admit that 11 (?) Republican Senators voted against supplying weapons to Ukraine in the most recent vote.  Of course, looking at that recent vote, it also means that 39 Republican Senators voted in favor of supplying weapons to Ukraine. 

We shouldn't confuse calls with trying to ensure that weapons get used correctly with not wanting to send any weapons at all.  If we'd been more successful trying to make sure weapons exports got into the right hands in Vietnam in the 1970s, or in Afghanistan in the 1980s, or in Afghanistan again in the 2010s, the world would be a safer place.

We're not really disagreeing here, so much as attributing bogus arguments to each other.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 13, 2022, 03:37:28 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 12, 2022, 09:49:32 PM
Would you feel the $40 Billion was well spent if a big chunk of it went into a crew of rich people's pockets instead of weapons to defend Ukraine? Or if a lot of those weapons ended-up in the hands of terrorists planning the next attack on NYC? Can anyone say for certain that they won't or haven't? I certainly hope we don't only have CNN & MSNBC looking into this.

Your going to have to show some proof there with accusations like that.  Also the corruption worry was addressed in the spring.  I seem to remember Rand Paul making a stink about fiscal accountability cause that's his big thing.  This lead to a pentagon appointed funds zsar per say who over sees the allocation of where that money goes.

I remember this vividly, because Ukrainian generals were complaining that this delayed the deployment of key weapons like the himars for a month.  At the time this was a big deal as this was when Russia was inflicting big ground and pound artillery casualties on Ukraine and the mad dash to counter the threat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 13, 2022, 03:50:07 AM
I don't believe there is any evidence of real malfeasance with the military aid sent to date. However, there isn't a lot of oversight, partially because we don't have people on the ground in Ukraine to monitor. So, with such a massive amount of aid, the potential for diversion is there.

I think it's clear based on the destruction of the Russian military that so far the bulk of the weaponry is being used to kill Russians, and no one else.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-billions-going-to-ukraine-officials-warn-of-potential-for-fraud-waste-11655121601 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-billions-going-to-ukraine-officials-warn-of-potential-for-fraud-waste-11655121601)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 13, 2022, 05:49:51 AM
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2022/11/11/f8c70327-5fe6-4bb5-bf8a-a9805a67a38e.jpg) (https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2022/11/11/e1e4e5cb-4e50-46fa-9a30-2580522511d0.jpg) (https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2022/11/11/e37abc7c-dc38-423e-a329-3dd4755f6313.jpg)

I know it is far from over and nothing is decided yet, but who believed 8 months ago Ukraine could be where they are today ?

And yes this is in no small part thanks to the military and non military support from the US.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on November 13, 2022, 08:31:03 AM
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-government-and-politics-weapons-inspections-4adab5d918690a569e396ce385c34348
QuoteWASHINGTON (AP) — A small number of U.S. military forces inside Ukraine have recently begun doing onsite inspections to ensure that Ukrainian troops are properly accounting for the Western-provided weapons they receive, a senior U.S. defense official told Pentagon reporters Monday.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to provide a military update, would not say where the inspections are taking place or how close to the battlefronts the U.S. troops are getting. The official said U.S. personnel can't do inspections "close to the front lines," but said they are going where security conditions allow.

The official said there have been several inspections, and they are being done by the U.S. Defense attache and the U.S. Office of Defense Cooperation team that is in Kyiv. So far, the official said, Ukrainian officials have been transparent about the weapons' distribution and are supporting the inspections.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 13, 2022, 09:12:59 AM
AmIright?   :DD

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhXXTFqXkAIoPMY?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on November 13, 2022, 09:52:30 AM
What! No pictures of the Superbonker 9000?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 13, 2022, 10:38:14 AM
pretty sure I posted that many many pages ago.
#NAFO
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on November 13, 2022, 12:33:15 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 13, 2022, 10:38:14 AM
pretty sure I posted that many many pages ago.
#NAFO
It's so great it should be posted everyday!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 13, 2022, 01:11:05 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on November 13, 2022, 08:31:03 AM
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-government-and-politics-weapons-inspections-4adab5d918690a569e396ce385c34348
QuoteWASHINGTON (AP) — A small number of U.S. military forces inside Ukraine have recently begun doing onsite inspections to ensure that Ukrainian troops are properly accounting for the Western-provided weapons they receive, a senior U.S. defense official told Pentagon reporters Monday.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to provide a military update, would not say where the inspections are taking place or how close to the battlefronts the U.S. troops are getting. The official said U.S. personnel can't do inspections "close to the front lines," but said they are going where security conditions allow.

The official said there have been several inspections, and they are being done by the U.S. Defense attache and the U.S. Office of Defense Cooperation team that is in Kyiv. So far, the official said, Ukrainian officials have been transparent about the weapons' distribution and are supporting the inspections.

That's a very positive sign.  As I recall, we had similar fact-finding missions in Afghanistan.  Such is the price of having allies in cultures that we can't fluently navigate.

I spent two years building NGO funding networks in Southeast Asia.  While you can often get a sense for who's making better use of the resources you give them, it is more art than science.  And it's often a process of "six steps up, five steps back".   Even when done in peacetime.

That's not intended as a knock on SE Asia, just a testimony as to how easy it is for big institutions to divert or misuse resources.  Heck, the same thing happens in The Pentagon today, and in theory, they answer to us and to Congress as well as the President!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 13, 2022, 02:17:35 PM
After being burned in Vietnam and Afghanistan twice, I get the accountability requests.  But we also have to know when it's apples and apples versus apples and oranges comparisons.  Ukraine is not Vietnam or Afghanistan.  Ukraine is the UK in 1940 Battle of Britain or 1960 / 70s Israel to me but maybe not to some of you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 13, 2022, 05:03:46 PM
^I can see the UK comparison...maybe not as desperate as the UK in 1940, but close.

I waver back and forth on the importance of this war to me sitting in New York and the grand scheme of the international order. I personally care about it because of my ethnicity/ancestry and because it is just crystal clear to me that Russia needs to be spanked, even though I do understand some of their arguments about NATO encroachment.

If I lived in Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Bulgaria or Romania I would not waver at all, it would be crystal clear. The incompetence of the Russian military has also helped me step back from panic. Then I think about Russia's 1000s of nukes and get generally nervous again.

All that said it's hard to gauge if this war is the beginning of a new dangerous era or the last gasp of the 20th century.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 13, 2022, 07:15:36 PM
"Why not both?" gif meme here.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 13, 2022, 08:19:07 PM
^You're probably right  :pullhair:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 13, 2022, 11:44:00 PM
I never claimed money and weapons weren't getting into the right hands so you pull that out of your ass. What I said was how do you know if it is or is not? You don't. Because there is virtually no accountability to determinate it. " Senior U.S. Defense Official" who only speaks anonymously that a small number of U.S. military forces is on top of this is hardly credible as accountability. If you're OK with that, then send the Ukrainians YOUR money, I'd like to keep as much of mine as possible, even as radical as that idea is.

I'm sure the administration that didn't mind throwing away all that money, effort, and weapons in Afghanistan....will do a much better job of managing things this time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 14, 2022, 12:17:06 AM
enjoy the links.

https://hoaxlines.org/the-database/claims-the-us-isnt-auditing-aid-to-ukraine-are-pants-on-fire-false

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on November 14, 2022, 12:27:40 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 13, 2022, 11:44:00 PM
I'm sure the administration that didn't mind throwing away all that money, effort, and weapons in Afghanistan....will do a much better job of managing things this time.

I don't know why you keep comparing this to Afghanistan when it's clearly apples to oranges.  To quote Jules Winnfield, "It ain't the same ballpark, it ain't the same league, it ain't even the same sport!" 

If you're picking a bone with a specific "administration" of current/recent years, please keep it out of this thread because that's R&P turf.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 14, 2022, 06:37:07 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on November 14, 2022, 12:27:40 AM

If you're picking a bone with a specific "administration" of current/recent years, please keep it out of this thread because that's R&P turf.

Exactly. Everyone move on please. The discussion of aid to Ukraine is only proper to the extent it focuses on its impact on the war and the strategic situation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 14, 2022, 11:04:14 AM
Russia's Wagner Group executes one of its own with a sledgehammer to the head and publishes the video.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sledgehammer-execution-of-russian-mercenary-who-defected-to-ukraine-shown-in-video/ar-AA1443Lx?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f2b021ffd15243079b9d082e28937795 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sledgehammer-execution-of-russian-mercenary-who-defected-to-ukraine-shown-in-video/ar-AA1443Lx?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f2b021ffd15243079b9d082e28937795)

This video is "unverified," but the head of Wagner Group (Prigozhin) said that the video should be called "A dog receives a dog's death".

This is real Isis-type stuff.

Just reminds me of the old Maya Angelou quote: "When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 14, 2022, 11:14:37 AM
That is...horrendous
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 14, 2022, 12:07:56 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on November 14, 2022, 11:04:14 AM

Just reminds me of the old Maya Angelou quote: "When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time."

Another atrocity on their long list of atrocities, with a difference this time they did it to one of their own. No wonder Ukrainians are determined to fight the Russians off from their occupied territories no matter what. (I have not watched nor will I watch that video, but have seen enough about its details in written form)

Seems Russia is determined to do their utmost to keep the Western democracies supporting Ukraine, despite breaking of that will pretty much their only remaining option to get something out from this war of theirs.

Torture chambers, all sorts of horrors revealed everywhere they were chased out from. The military formation that did the atrocities in Bucha was decorated, let us not forget that.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 14, 2022, 12:10:36 PM
I won't watch it. Geez, is a bullet to brain too painless for these people? I've just been reading, Island Infernos about the Army's war in the Pacific. The battles were brutal beyond compare but no one tried to sensationalize it or broadcast their brutality to others.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 14, 2022, 12:19:47 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 14, 2022, 12:10:36 PM
I won't watch it. Geez, is a bullet to brain too painless for these people? I've just been reading, Island Infernos about the Army's war in the Pacific. The battles were brutal beyond compare but no one tried to sensationalize it or broadcast their brutality to others.  :hide:

Maybe the Russians are out of bullets now too?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 14, 2022, 01:13:14 PM
On a lighter note, an indicative estimate of Ukrainian losses. Saving Private Raccoon!  :knuppel2:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhgOQnFX0AEa8T6?format=jpg&name=900x900)

https://twitter.com/MicZiel/status/1592038149051805698
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 14, 2022, 01:36:13 PM
I get the joke except for the raccoon -- did someone film the Orks absconding with one?!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 14, 2022, 01:38:42 PM
Plus one rare/endangered Ukrainian Hamster (true - Wagner apparently also is sadistic to animals, not just people)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 14, 2022, 01:52:58 PM
They killed an adorable fucking hamster?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 14, 2022, 02:17:58 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 14, 2022, 01:36:13 PM
I get the joke except for the raccoon -- did someone film the Orks absconding with one?!

Yes, it has become great meme fuel in Ukraine. When the Russians left Kherson, they stole the Raccoon from the zoo; there is a video.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainians-react-to-theft-of-kherson-zoo-raccoon-by-russian-soldiers-50283755.html (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainians-react-to-theft-of-kherson-zoo-raccoon-by-russian-soldiers-50283755.html)

According to our man Denys Davydov, there is even an online petition to add the 'return of the raccoon' to Ukraine's official demands for peace.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 14, 2022, 03:08:45 PM
Ukrainians may be keeping the heat on the Kherson retreat...

I have seen several "rumors" of Ukrainian landings at Kinburn Spit (that little finger of land sticking out into the Black Sea on the Russian side of the Dnieper).

Forbes and Sky News have reported possible landings...being careful to characterize the information as "rumors."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/14/a-strategic-strip-of-sand-rumors-of-ukrainian-raids-as-russian-forces-retreat-keep-an-eye-on-the-kinburn-spit/?sh=2d0d8908304d (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/14/a-strategic-strip-of-sand-rumors-of-ukrainian-raids-as-russian-forces-retreat-keep-an-eye-on-the-kinburn-spit/?sh=2d0d8908304d)

If so, it might be a way to get around Russian fortifications opposite Kherson.

Or, could just be raids to keep the Russians off-balance.

Or, could just be Ukrainian head fake.

If true, I would think they are just raids. Would be difficult for the Ukrainians to sustain a real offensive from there...and easy for the Russians to eventually seal them off. But then again, many classic attacks in history, come from where the enemy is least expecting it....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 14, 2022, 04:23:50 PM
And now the poor raccoon has been, 'mobilized' into the army no doubt. "Pvt. R.A. Coon from Kherson. Thank you for volunteering private". With the Russians record, he'll be an officer shortly.  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 14, 2022, 04:48:21 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 14, 2022, 04:23:50 PM
And now the poor raccoon has been, 'mobilized' into the army no doubt. "Pvt. R.A. Coon from Kherson. Thank you for volunteering private". With the Russians record, he'll be an officer shortly.  ;D

My thinking is that they just promote him to Master Sergeant.  Once he becomes an officer, he gets to start dipping into the paychecks of all the enlisted soldiers who aren't actually physically present in the unit.  I doubt the Russian officer ranks would want to have to share stolen money with a racoon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 14, 2022, 04:59:06 PM
Somewhere there is a twitter video with a single Ukrainian IFV with a squad riding topside charging a prepared Russian position.... and the bastards made it down the dirt road, unloaded safely and put flight to the poor damn demoralized Ruskies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 14, 2022, 07:32:35 PM
seems those dragons teeth aint worth a shit!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1592153855105826818
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 14, 2022, 07:38:44 PM
And they're not even made out of real Dragon dental material at all.  :o  Probably somebody's Brother-In-Law got the contract.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 14, 2022, 07:39:51 PM
same goes for their prefab bunkers:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1592095746467237888
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 14, 2022, 07:43:30 PM
That's probably just a sunroof.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 14, 2022, 09:10:33 PM
From the thread: 'those are septic tanks with holes to shoot' ...probably spot on hahaha
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 14, 2022, 11:08:43 PM
Re return the racoon: better negotiate that to replacing the coon -- that thing is 15 pounds of jerky and an awesome Russian winter cap by now.

And maybe a fleece, being dipped in a river to catch gold dust, considering the area.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 15, 2022, 09:17:25 AM
Good discussion on the role and effectiveness of aviation in the war.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on November 15, 2022, 09:31:16 AM
Anyone here read either Haaretz or The Times of Israel?

There is an article on Haaretz about Zelensky voting at the UN last month to bring Israel to the international court for it's "illegal occupation" of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) while at the same time he criticizes Israel for not supplying weapons to help UKR fight Putin.  Not taking into consideration Israel's delicate relationship with Russia and it's activities in Syria. 

Other UN members voting to bring Israel to court include Iran and Russia

Why am I posting this here?  Although what Russia is doing to Ukraine is an outrage not everyone is innocent in this mess.  We live in a hypocritical world.  You won't hear this on mainstream media. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 15, 2022, 09:49:00 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on November 15, 2022, 09:31:16 AM
Anyone here read either Haaretz or The Times of Israel?

There is an article on Haaretz about Zelensky voting at the UN last month to bring Israel to the international court for it's "illegal occupation" of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) while at the same time he criticizes Israel for not supplying weapons to help UKR fight Putin.  Not taking into consideration Israel's delicate relationship with Russia and it's activities in Syria. 

Other UN members voting to bring Israel to court include Iran and Russia

Why am I posting this here?  Although what Russia is doing to Ukraine is an outrage not everyone is innocent in this mess.  We live in a hypocritical world.  You won't hear this on mainstream media.

While certainly noteworthy, I do not see how this post has any place in this thread, as it has absolutely nothing to do with the strategic situation or operational and/or tactical realities of the combat in the war. Please resist the urge to post distractions like this. We know, as in all things in life, that there is no black and white.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on November 15, 2022, 10:43:40 AM
^Roger that.  I apologize, you know me though.  I can't resist sometimes.  Just wish there was somewhere safe to share this kind of stuff. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 15, 2022, 11:56:20 AM
After the retaking of Kherson, is Melitopol next? And a possible Ukrainian siege of Crimea?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 15, 2022, 12:06:25 PM
Keep pushing as long as there's mush!  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on November 15, 2022, 01:52:56 PM
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-722483

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki convened an urgent meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs on Tuesday, with initial reports indicating that stray Russian missiles may have hit a town near the border with Ukraine.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3

Two dead after Russian missiles land in NATO state Poland on Ukraine border


Much speculation but for now it looks like the exact causes and circumstances of the incident are still being investigated while the area was secured.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 15, 2022, 02:02:01 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on November 15, 2022, 01:52:56 PM
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-722483

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki convened an urgent meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs on Tuesday, with initial reports indicating that stray Russian missiles may have hit a town near the border with Ukraine.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3

Two dead after Russian missiles land in NATO state Poland on Ukraine border


Much speculation but for now it looks like the exact causes and circumstances of the incident are still being investigated while the area was secured.

Holy cr@p  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 15, 2022, 02:27:46 PM
^+1 - exactly the kind of 'error' that we all were fearing could lead to a wider war.

That said, I'm sure (hoping) the Polish ministers were on the phone immediately with NATO counterparts, who would calm them down and help assess exactly wtf is going on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on November 15, 2022, 02:29:35 PM
Vengeance!

Release the Winged Hussars!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 15, 2022, 02:42:30 PM
Step q: after pissing off the Cossacks, piss off the Hussars.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 15, 2022, 03:38:20 PM
While the response (whatever it is) should be muted and restrained; there does need to be a response. I think Poland giving the Ukraine those Migs might be appropriate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on November 15, 2022, 03:51:41 PM
Or maybe declaring you will intercept any missiles that come within x miles of natural borders.  X based on reaction time needed to intercept missiles before crossing border. If that happens to cover Lvov, all the better.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on November 15, 2022, 04:09:38 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 15, 2022, 02:42:30 PM
Step q: after pissing off the Cossacks, piss off the Hussars.

Right?!?

Belarus' pucker factor is doubtlessly through the roof at this point.

Anyone up for a game of Twilight 2000?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 15, 2022, 04:14:01 PM
NO! Well not in reality, anyway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 15, 2022, 04:17:01 PM
'A moment for cool heads.'

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 15, 2022, 04:31:36 PM
Finding a lot of good content today.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 15, 2022, 04:46:20 PM
I'm 90% sure the attack on Poland was a mistake.

However, it sounds like there were more than one missile. If the weapons were fairly smart, then having multiple similar malfunctions just doesn't cut it. Probably gross incompetence.

Or, maybe there are hotheads in the Russian military...wanting to lash out at NATO...and this might be a scary possibility.

If I thought that Putin was really smart enough to be playing 5D chess, and that he was five moves ahead already, I might see a few weird possible scenarios where he might make limited attacks on NATO...but those would be crazy...and risk nuclear war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on November 15, 2022, 04:58:52 PM
Oh boy, Scott Ritter, the guy that claimed the Ukrainians killed their own people in the Bucha massacre as a false flag to frame the Russians.  Did the interviewer manage to get him on by claiming to be an underage girl?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 15, 2022, 05:08:42 PM
^He did also make a bunch of Ukrainian/Nazi remarks, and kind of borderline/virtually snuggled with Putin. Beyond that he did break me out of a fantasy world where Ukraine could possibly take all their land back. I dunno...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on November 15, 2022, 05:15:27 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 15, 2022, 05:08:42 PM
^He did also make a bunch of Ukrainian/Nazi remarks, and kind of borderline/virtually snuggled with Putin. Beyond that he did break me out of a fantasy world where Ukraine could possibly take all their land back. I dunno...

Yeah, I listened to him and I agree that achieving some kind of extreme battlefield success where the Russians are totally run out of Ukraine is at best a pipe dream.  I too just really see no way where Crimea and the far eastern chunks of the Donbas will be able to return successfully. 

I just can't help but take Ritter with a grain of salt considering his checkered and jumpsuit orange colored past.  I know he knows his subject but he is also currently on the list of noted active Kremlin propagandists and for some pretty good reasons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on November 15, 2022, 05:54:54 PM
In further breaking news, the pizza place near the Pentagon is on high alert.  🤔

(https://i.redd.it/zto1xai6q70a1.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 15, 2022, 06:19:46 PM
Real News Network????? Real News. Seriously? I am for balancing one's news sources, but them???

And Andrew, everything but the Crimea is definitely doable IMO. Especially if the AFU keeps the pressure on all winter and keeps messing with their logistics.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 15, 2022, 06:23:48 PM
Quote from: Windigo on November 15, 2022, 06:19:46 PM
Real News Network????? Real News. Seriously? I am for balancing one's news sources, but them???

And Andrew, the Crimea is definitely doable IMO. Especially if the AFU keeps the pressure on all winter and keeps messing with their logistics.

What is wrong with TRNN? How is it any more susceptible to criticism than say CNN, MSN or Fox?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 15, 2022, 06:28:55 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on November 15, 2022, 06:23:48 PM
Quote from: Windigo on November 15, 2022, 06:19:46 PM
Real News Network????? Real News. Seriously? I am for balancing one's news sources, but them???

And Andrew, the Crimea is definitely doable IMO. Especially if the AFU keeps the pressure on all winter and keeps messing with their logistics.

What is wrong with TRNN? How is it any more susceptible to criticism than say CNN, MSN or Fox?

It isn't more suscepttible (nice choice of words BTW). Have I had any good words about those other guys? It seems to be entertainment and circle jerking down there for ratings now.... and bad polling.   ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 15, 2022, 06:36:19 PM
The Ritter interview must be weeks old as he listed Kherson as one of the unattainable objectives so....I guess if Ukraine followed his pessimist attitude, the Kharkov offensive wouldn't have happened and Kherson would still be Russian.

If Ukraine wants to continue and it can be sustained let them.  I still like the idea of this ending with a negotiated DMZ at the pre 2014 Russ Ukraine boarder, with Sebastopol inside the DMZ or even partitioned like cold war Berlin.  Might be the best settlement for both sides, then let western prosperity finish off Russia over decades like the USSR in the cold war.     
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on November 15, 2022, 06:37:21 PM
Oh oh, Pizzacon 4?!
On a more serious note, the BBC is reporting that the missiles may be s-300s.
Quote
"The BBC has been unable to verify these pictures, but we've spoken to three defence experts about what they show.

Mark Cancian, from think tank CSIS, believes it may be from an S-300 system. This type of missile is typically used for surface-to-air attacks, and has been used by both Russia and Ukraine throughout the war.Who fired the missile is unclear," says J Andrés Gannon, a security expert at the US Council on Foreign Relations, who agrees that it may be from an S-300 system.

"We know Russia has been using the S-300 for ground attacks even though it's an air defence system, but Ukraine also uses them for air defence against cruise missiles."

Dr Justin Bronk, a senior fellow at think tank Rusi, agrees that it may be from an S-300 system, but there isn't enough evidence to identify it yet.

Both sides are using s-300s but Russia is using them to attack ground targets and Belorussian territory is in range of Przewodow.  If Russia launched a highly inaccurate missile in ground attack at Ukrainian targets so close to the Polish border, it confirms Kasparov's statement that Putin thinks he is playing chess but that he is playing checkers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on November 15, 2022, 07:19:09 PM
Quote from: Skoop on November 15, 2022, 06:36:19 PM
The Ritter interview must be weeks old as he listed Kherson as one of the unattainable objectives so....I guess if Ukraine followed his pessimist attitude, the Kharkov offensive wouldn't have happened and Kherson would still be Russian.

If Ukraine wants to continue and it can be sustained let them.  I still like the idea of this ending with a negotiated DMZ at the pre 2014 Russ Ukraine boarder, with Sebastopol inside the DMZ or even partitioned like cold war Berlin.  Might be the best settlement for both sides, then let western prosperity finish off Russia over decades like the USSR in the cold war.     

You have to consider the source.  Ritter's had a pretty awful track record of being correct about this Special Military Operation war from the beginning.   From his initial insistence that the Russians would never invade, to him predicting the war would last less than a week once it began, to his instance that the UAF would be incapable of mounting any counteroffensive operations over the summer. 

He's been doing this a while too.  He's been supportive of the Assad regime and has directly blamed Russian/Assad atrocities on Syrian Rebels.  He's also been a guest on Russian state run TV spreading what he must know is Russian disinformation to the Russian public. 

He directly ignored evidence to the contrary when he blamed the Ukrainians for the Bucha massacre.  That's what earned him his Twitter ban. 

Some journalists have suggested that Ritter is compromised.  In his case I tend to believe it.  He's been caught twice trying to solicit children for sex and was convicted once.  That sounds to me like a guy with a lot of skeletons in his closet.  He only got caught twice, think of all the times he probably wasn't.

I imagine it would probably be pretty easy for the Russians to exert a lot of influence over him.   


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 15, 2022, 07:28:02 PM
The Ritter interview is from November 4, IIRC.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 15, 2022, 07:44:14 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on November 15, 2022, 07:19:09 PM
Quote from: Skoop on November 15, 2022, 06:36:19 PM
The Ritter interview must be weeks old as he listed Kherson as one of the unattainable objectives so....I guess if Ukraine followed his pessimist attitude, the Kharkov offensive wouldn't have happened and Kherson would still be Russian.

If Ukraine wants to continue and it can be sustained let them.  I still like the idea of this ending with a negotiated DMZ at the pre 2014 Russ Ukraine boarder, with Sebastopol inside the DMZ or even partitioned like cold war Berlin.  Might be the best settlement for both sides, then let western prosperity finish off Russia over decades like the USSR in the cold war.     

You have to consider the source.  Ritter's had a pretty awful track record of being correct about this Special Military Operation war from the beginning.   From his initial insistence that the Russians would never invade, to him predicting the war would last less than a week once it began, to his instance that the UAF would be incapable of mounting any counteroffensive operations over the summer. 

He's been doing this a while too.  He's been supportive of the Assad regime and has directly blamed Russian/Assad atrocities on Syrian Rebels.  He's also been a guest on Russian state run TV spreading what he must know is Russian disinformation to the Russian public. 

He directly ignored evidence to the contrary when he blamed the Ukrainians for the Bucha massacre.  That's what earned him his Twitter ban. 

Some journalists have suggested that Ritter is compromised.  In his case I tend to believe it.  He's been caught twice trying to solicit children for sex and was convicted once.  That sounds to me like a guy with a lot of skeletons in his closet.  He only got caught twice, think of all the times he probably wasn't.

I imagine it would probably be pretty easy for the Russians to exert a lot of influence over him.

i know next to nothing about Scott Ritter other than that he served honorably in the Marine Corps for 12 years and was a weapons inspector for UNSCOM. That being said, a lot of the allegations you are making seem to sound very similar to the ones that were leveled against Trump when being accused of Russian collusion, which we now know was a complete fabricated hoax. it seems very possible that Ritter has been targeted by the US DOJ because of his public opposition to and criticism of various US foreign policies...I mean that, or he is, in fact, just a child molesting douche. 

My point is, you have to have healthy skepticism and ask questions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on November 15, 2022, 07:51:46 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on November 15, 2022, 07:44:14 PM
i know next to nothing about Scott Ritter other than that he served honorably in the Marine Corps for 12 years and was a weapons inspector for UNSCOM. That being said, a lot of the allegations you are making seem to sound very similar to the ones that were leveled against Trump when being accused of Russian collusion, which we now know was a complete fabricated hoax. it seems very possible that Ritter has been targeted by the US DOJ because of his public opposition to and criticism of various US foreign policies...I mean that, or he is, in fact, just a child molesting douche. 

My point is, you have to have healthy skepticism and ask questions.


The other side of the coin is, of course, that he's largely said that the accusations made against him, including the sex solicitation, has been a conspiracy to silence him. 

Healthy skepticism is always best either way.   As I said, I don't even entirely disagree with a lot of the points in his interview and I know he's got a lot of knowledge on the subject.   The fact that he does has been largely one of the reasons I'm so skeptical of him because he's made statements and accusations that he absolutely has to know are at least misleading if not outright false. 

As always the best thing to do is listen to the substance of his argument and do your own research. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 16, 2022, 07:56:36 AM
Hmm, apparently it wasn't a Russian missile, despite the fact Russia saying it wasn't their missile.

Question: Is it true you always lie?
Radio Yerevan: No! We always lie only the sheer truth.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 16, 2022, 09:17:42 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 16, 2022, 07:56:36 AM
Hmm, apparently it wasn't a Russian missile, despite the fact Russia saying it wasn't their missile.

Question: Is it true you always lie?
Radio Yerevan: No! We always lie only the sheer truth.

The latest information is that it was a Ukrainian missile that missed badly after it was fired to shoot down Russian incoming missiles.

I suppose if the incident has an upside it is that Russia got to see first-hand how quickly NATO reacted.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 16, 2022, 09:20:01 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on November 16, 2022, 09:17:42 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 16, 2022, 07:56:36 AM
Hmm, apparently it wasn't a Russian missile, despite the fact Russia saying it wasn't their missile.

Question: Is it true you always lie?
Radio Yerevan: No! We always lie only the sheer truth.

The latest information is that it was a Ukrainian missile that missed badly after it was fired to shoot down Russian incoming missiles.

I suppose if the incident has an upside it is that Russia got to see first-hand how quickly NATO reacted.

Would have been something if a Ukrainian missile triggered WWIII.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 16, 2022, 09:23:51 AM
The sniper war: Ukraine's army claimed on Wednesday to have made the world's second-longest sniper kill shot, at a distance of 1.68 miles, or 2.7 kilometers.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-says-sniper-killed-russian-soldier-almost-1-7-miles-away-which-it-claims-is-the-second-longest-kill-on-record/ar-AA14b8Q7?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c97df78a3c9948bca5b3c0943c59c86a (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-says-sniper-killed-russian-soldier-almost-1-7-miles-away-which-it-claims-is-the-second-longest-kill-on-record/ar-AA14b8Q7?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c97df78a3c9948bca5b3c0943c59c86a)

The video on Telegram is a little grainy, but still sobering:
https://t.me/AFUStratCom/9621 (https://t.me/AFUStratCom/9621)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 16, 2022, 09:29:24 AM
^ :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on November 16, 2022, 10:46:30 AM
The missile that landed in Poland definitely emphasizes how Russia's relentless strikes on Ukraine civilian infrastructure threatens NATO, because intercepting them can lead to accidents.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 16, 2022, 11:29:43 AM
I agree. Whether or not the missile was Russian or Ukrainian, the Russians are clearly at fault for shooting things into other peoples' countries. It is sad that innocents have to die because of it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on November 16, 2022, 11:44:26 AM
Not unlike MH17 expect a firehose of conspiracy theories/disinformation from russia to slow down analysis and distract from the truth.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 16, 2022, 12:06:50 PM
Quote from: GroggyGrognard2022 on November 16, 2022, 11:44:26 AM
Not unlike MH17 expect a firehose of conspiracy theories/disinformation from russia to slow down analysis and distract from the truth.

True, but wasn't that airliner downed over territory controlled by Russia and their separatists? As such, they were able to control and limit access to the wreckage and tamper with evidence. Here, the missiles fell in Polish territory far from Russian assets. Hopefully, this will prevent Russia from obfuscating much.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 16, 2022, 12:44:45 PM
They might try to claim that Ukraine shot their missiles into Poland to try to frame Russia. But they'll have trouble getting around any radar evidence, if so.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 16, 2022, 01:50:40 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 16, 2022, 12:44:45 PM
They might try to claim that Ukraine shot their missiles into Poland to try to frame Russia. But they'll have trouble getting around any radar evidence, if so.

Not surprisingly, it appears that NATO does indeed have radar evidence that they have shared with Poland.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 16, 2022, 01:58:01 PM
If Ukraine acknowledges they did it by accident while shooting at incoming missiles, that would also defuse a lot of Russian attempts at gobbledegook.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 16, 2022, 03:40:48 PM
^Yes that would be a great boon against insanity and WWIII.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 16, 2022, 04:05:37 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on November 15, 2022, 05:54:54 PM
In further breaking news, the pizza place near the Pentagon is on high alert.  🤔

(https://i.redd.it/zto1xai6q70a1.jpg)

For the record, I used to live two blocks from this Pizza Hut.

The Pentagon had that particular vulnerability revealed years ago.  Now they're just relying on a fancy new weapons system that they call "The MX Food Truck"!    8)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 16, 2022, 04:14:36 PM
I hope that Ukraine would be as transparent as possible with NATO. Bad things can happen where tensions are high. Even small mistakes can cost lives. Even the US has had incidents.

So far in this war it seems the Ukrainians understand that being transparent and cooperative with NATO gets them far more than trying to be protective and secretive (with the possible exception of some of Ukraine's special ops).

It seems to me like Ukraine does understand this. But I really don't know.

Who does know? The NATO people on the ground dealing with Ukraine every day could tell you...but diplomatic and military protocols prevent them from saying anything (as is good and proper in my book).

However, usually if there is friction, after nine months, we would be hearing that by now. But so far, the only little leaks here and there seem to be positive towards the Ukrainians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 16, 2022, 04:28:46 PM
I am not a leader (anal?... snicker), but I think I would be inclined to co-operate with anyone providing me with hightech weapons like HIMARS, javelins and BitchSlapper 3000s.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 16, 2022, 04:39:58 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 16, 2022, 04:05:37 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on November 15, 2022, 05:54:54 PM
In further breaking news, the pizza place near the Pentagon is on high alert.  🤔

(https://i.redd.it/zto1xai6q70a1.jpg)

For the record, I used to live two blocks from this Pizza Hut.

The Pentagon had that particular vulnerability revealed years ago.  Now they're just relying on a fancy new weapons system that they call "The MX Food Truck"!    8)

I thought the old tale was that the most dangerous place at the Pentagon was at a small hot dog stand that the Soviets believed was some kind of super secret, high-tech surveillance equipment. Apparently, they had several megatons of warheads aimed at the shack.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 16, 2022, 06:15:56 PM
russians.....   ::)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1592907340139102209

to bad it didnt blow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on November 16, 2022, 06:48:39 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 16, 2022, 06:15:56 PM
russians.....   ::)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1592907340139102209

to bad it didnt blow.

Well, much like divorce Vodka makes war more bearable I guess.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 16, 2022, 09:04:00 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 16, 2022, 06:15:56 PM
russians.....   ::)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1592907340139102209

to bad it didnt blow.

The 'look what I just did' smile in the last second of the video is all you need to know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 16, 2022, 10:58:26 PM
Sir Andrew just gave me the line I'm going to have put on my gravestone.  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 16, 2022, 11:45:00 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on November 15, 2022, 09:17:25 AM
Good discussion on the role and effectiveness of aviation in the war.



It got lost quickly in the ebb and flow of the daily news (?) cycle, but this is an excellent and very detailed analysis.  It doesn't paint nearly as rosy a picture of the air war as many of us had gleaned from various media reports.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 17, 2022, 01:47:40 AM
 O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 17, 2022, 08:09:35 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 16, 2022, 01:58:01 PM
If Ukraine acknowledges they did it by accident while shooting at incoming missiles, that would also defuse a lot of Russian attempts at gobbledegook.

Orrrrrr..... Zelensky could insist that those missiles weren't Ukrainian.  ???

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nato-row-breaks-out-as-zelensky-savaged-for-destructive-lies-over-poland-missile/ar-AA14bRZC?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=2e465aca539940a99404571b3ef635b7

QuoteNATO and Ukraine found themselves at odds at an urgent meeting on Wednesday, it has been revealed, as Volodymyr Zelensky said he had "no doubt" a missile that killed two people after landing in Poland near the Ukrainian border was not of Ukrainian origin. {snip} Mr Zelensky would not budge on the issue, insisting that a report he received from the incident left him certain that it was "not our missile or our missile strike". His statements have reportedly irked at least one Kyiv-based diplomat from a NATO country, who told the Financial Times: "This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile."

Poland agrees they have no evidence the missile came from Russia.

Russia of course insists they have never shot weapons close to the Polish border -- despite something like 65 missiles having hit Lvov since February! (I don't know how many, so I'm exaggerating for humor. I hope!)

No doubt those came from Lithuania, whose leaders are desperate to recover the extent of their ancient empire...  ::) ::) ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 17, 2022, 09:34:36 AM
This plays into Putin's hands nicely.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 17, 2022, 11:27:32 AM
From the video, it sounds like the Ukrainians would benefit as much from a cease-fire as the Russkies, maybe even more. Food for thought.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 17, 2022, 11:57:48 AM
NASAMS the new HIMARs (ie. the next wonder weapon)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-nasams-having-100-success-rate-in-stopping-russian-missiles-pentagon/ar-AA14dA14?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ce9236bd235b4256b839bd9e9dda6dd3 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-nasams-having-100-success-rate-in-stopping-russian-missiles-pentagon/ar-AA14dA14?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ce9236bd235b4256b839bd9e9dda6dd3)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 17, 2022, 03:15:21 PM
QuoteFrom the video, it sounds like the Ukrainians would benefit as much from a cease-fire as the Russkies, maybe even more.

:DD
the Ukrainians are in no mood for a cease fire nor are they remotely close to wanting one.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 17, 2022, 03:21:39 PM
If Ukraine took back Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea then they would be much more open to a cease fire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 17, 2022, 03:39:31 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 17, 2022, 03:15:21 PM
QuoteFrom the video, it sounds like the Ukrainians would benefit as much from a cease-fire as the Russkies, maybe even more.

:DD
the Ukrainians are in no mood for a cease fire nor are they remotely close to wanting one.

Like they used to say in the Civil War; "their blood is up."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 17, 2022, 04:26:54 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on November 17, 2022, 03:39:31 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 17, 2022, 03:15:21 PM
QuoteFrom the video, it sounds like the Ukrainians would benefit as much from a cease-fire as the Russkies, maybe even more.

:DD
the Ukrainians are in no mood for a cease fire nor are they remotely close to wanting one.

Like they used to say in the Civil War; "their blood is up."

their feathers have been ruffled...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 17, 2022, 05:10:40 PM
exhuming mass graves tends to really piss off the locals.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 17, 2022, 06:11:12 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 17, 2022, 11:27:32 AM
From the video, it sounds like the Ukrainians would benefit as much from a cease-fire as the Russkies, maybe even more. Food for thought.

The message of the video wasn't to have a cease fire so that we could stop sending billions in aid, it was now's the time to keep up the pressure.  In fact the final 4 mins of the British guys chat pretty much defined my whole stance on Ukraine.  "The Ukrainians are getting more out of / and better results from US defense spending than if we were spending that on our own troops."

That's something to think about, it's like we're going to spend that money regardless for defense, better it go to Ukraine and kill enemies of democracy rather than buy equipment that will just sit on the shelf for decades at home.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 17, 2022, 06:27:19 PM
Russians...just realizing they depend on the West...

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1592898787575357440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1592973179806699520%7Ctwgr%5E2afd0c807dc173f98a31b7709099982dd89d5030%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fputin-regime-cracking-elites-panic-former-us-ambassador-1760493 (https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1592898787575357440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1592973179806699520%7Ctwgr%5E2afd0c807dc173f98a31b7709099982dd89d5030%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fputin-regime-cracking-elites-panic-former-us-ambassador-1760493)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 17, 2022, 06:35:10 PM
Are people really that ignorant over there?

There is going to be some serious self-induced psychological ouchies coming their way when reality pisses on them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 17, 2022, 06:36:48 PM
(https://preview.redd.it/the-dildo-of-consequence-v0-qmdcarbdvzp91.jpg?auto=webp&s=b75c324e86c94b0fcadc56e8d4d23e1a4ac0b9a0)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 17, 2022, 10:41:21 PM
Wow.  That's a catchy phrase.

Too bad I'll never be able to use it at work, where it's often the most applicable!   ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 17, 2022, 11:37:52 PM
In the video I referenced, the British chap said clearly that the Ukraine would be in a much better position vs the Russian Air Force with American and or Swedish Fighter Jets. And... that that would require time to get the Ukrainians equipped and trained in their use. A Cease Fire would give them that time to do just that. And without the worry of having the Russians shooting at them while they did it. If you think outside the box, it makes sense.

Skoop, did you MISS the part where the British guy said plainly the Russians are using their long-range missiles on their fighters to keep the UAF fighters well away from the front lines possibly giving the Orcs a big advantage tactically? A Cease Fire would also help with this as well. Wouldn't it? Try not assuming that people who are asking questions meant to promote discussion are secretly trying to argue with you.  :hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 18, 2022, 08:31:54 AM
So, today I discovered we live in a world where Yahoo News gets to break embarrassing news to Russia:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/exclusive-ex-russian-spy-flees-to-the-nato-country-that-captured-him-delivering-another-embarrassing-blow-to-moscow/ar-AA14faRU?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=8e31c112d8874d5eaf96641990bf080f

Michael Weiss, reporting for Yahoo News US (with additional reporting by Holger Roonemaa), has been working on this story for a while (it's a long article), about a Russian GRU agent (military intelligence) previously caught by Estonia and traded back to Russia for an Estonian, who has now used his spycraft to defect to Estonia -- without Russia knowing about it yet.

Quote"The Russians have no idea," Alexander Toots, the head of Estonian counterintelligence, tells me, laughing. "They have absolutely no idea he is here. You can be the one to tell them."

In early October, the Estonian government granted Yahoo News unprecedented access to Zinchenko. Over the course of four hours he offered up his autobiography, reflective and remorseless, detailing his supporting role in the mostly unseen shadow play between Russian espionage and Western efforts to thwart it. As Zinchenko told it, his decision to defect was as much motivated by the Kremlin's brutality at home and abroad as it was by what he saw as Estonia's humanity toward him, an enemy agent.

Of course, this could be a special maskirovka op by the GRU, pretending to defect. But I'm sure everyone has thought of that already and taken steps to minimize any potential problems.

Does remind me that I've never gotten around to reading Suvorov's autobiography, and history of the Spetznaz.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 18, 2022, 08:33:02 AM
many pages ago there was a post about UkAF pilots already training in the US.
the process has already started with no cease fire needed or wanted.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 18, 2022, 10:50:54 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 18, 2022, 08:31:54 AM
So, today I discovered we live in a world where Yahoo News gets to break embarrassing news to Russia:
....

Wow, never thought that Yahoo news was anything more than just a news consolidator.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 18, 2022, 11:35:53 AM
Thats got to ratchet-up Putin's paranoia about 50 points. Do I detect a sudden epidemic of, 'Open-Window Falling Syndrome' approaching?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 18, 2022, 11:55:54 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on November 18, 2022, 10:50:54 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 18, 2022, 08:31:54 AM
So, today I discovered we live in a world where Yahoo News gets to break embarrassing news to Russia:
....

Wow, never thought that Yahoo news was anything more than just a news consolidator.

Same. I looked through that article several times trying to figure out where they were consolidating it from, but...!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 18, 2022, 12:20:44 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 18, 2022, 08:31:54 AM
So, today I discovered we live in a world where Yahoo News gets to break embarrassing news to Russia:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/exclusive-ex-russian-spy-flees-to-the-nato-country-that-captured-him-delivering-another-embarrassing-blow-to-moscow/ar-AA14faRU?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=8e31c112d8874d5eaf96641990bf080f

Michael Weiss, reporting for Yahoo News US (with additional reporting by Holger Roonemaa), has been working on this story for a while (it's a long article), about a Russian GRU agent (military intelligence) previously caught by Estonia and traded back to Russia for an Estonian, who has now used his spycraft to defect to Estonia -- without Russia knowing about it yet.

Quote"The Russians have no idea," Alexander Toots, the head of Estonian counterintelligence, tells me, laughing. "They have absolutely no idea he is here. You can be the one to tell them."

In early October, the Estonian government granted Yahoo News unprecedented access to Zinchenko. Over the course of four hours he offered up his autobiography, reflective and remorseless, detailing his supporting role in the mostly unseen shadow play between Russian espionage and Western efforts to thwart it. As Zinchenko told it, his decision to defect was as much motivated by the Kremlin's brutality at home and abroad as it was by what he saw as Estonia's humanity toward him, an enemy agent.

Of course, this could be a special maskirovka op by the GRU, pretending to defect. But I'm sure everyone has thought of that already and taken steps to minimize any potential problems.

Does remind me that I've never gotten around to reading Suvorov's autobiography, and history of the Spetznaz.

A while ago there was another rather long interview with Aleksander Toots. also with his Latvian and Lithuanian collegues. Wonder what's with this new openness. Maybe they just want to inform the public it's not pretty out there...

https://ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/120083694/human-life-has-no-value-there-baltic-counterintelligence-officers-speak-candidly-about-russian-cruelty
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 18, 2022, 12:24:01 PM
Any more word about what is going on (or past tense, happened) out on the spit?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on November 18, 2022, 03:05:01 PM
Quote from: Windigo on November 18, 2022, 12:24:01 PM
Any more word about what is going on (or past tense, happened) out on the spit?

Almost nothing. 

Russians said that they wiped out an attempted landing there, killing 20 and destroying 4 landing ships, but I've seen no photographic evidence to support that.  UAF said nothing about a landing and said they were launching rocket and arty strikes on the Spit to hit Russian entrenchments and supply dumps there. 

It's possible the Arty strikes prompted the story of a landing. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 18, 2022, 03:42:20 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on November 18, 2022, 03:05:01 PM
Quote from: Windigo on November 18, 2022, 12:24:01 PM
Any more word about what is going on (or past tense, happened) out on the spit?

Almost nothing. 

Russians said that they wiped out an attempted landing there, killing 20 and destroying 4 landing ships, but I've seen no photographic evidence to support that.  UAF said nothing about a landing and said they were launching rocket and arty strikes on the Spit to hit Russian entrenchments and supply dumps there. 

It's possible the Arty strikes prompted the story of a landing.

There was a video of a handful of small boats that said it was showing Ukrainian forces about to land on the spit (I think our man Denys Davydov had it on one of his daily updates). But there was really no way to tell if real video or not; it could have been a pre-war exercise for example. Also, if it was real, then it would have only been a raid or just recon. Did not see anything heavy, and certainly no logistics.

Denys hasn't mentioned the spit for a handful of days now. That either means news blackout or just 'no news.'

BTW, I am not a big fan of Denys, but I find his presentation mildly entertaining, and I let it run the background while I do other things.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 18, 2022, 04:33:56 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 18, 2022, 08:33:02 AM
many pages ago there was a post about UkAF pilots already training in the US.
the process has already started with no cease fire needed or wanted.

The comments about Ukraine needing to rebuild a tactical air force are a specific reference to the Carroll/Bronk interview posted by JH (and reposted by me) upthread.  If you haven't watched the interview, it's detailed, nuanced, and highly informative. 

It also pretty directly contradicts the second sentence of your post.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on November 18, 2022, 05:04:44 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on November 18, 2022, 03:42:20 PM
BTW, I am not a big fan of Denys, but I find his presentation mildly entertaining, and I let it run the background while I do other things.

I do the same with him, especially recently.

My impression was that he had a really good source early in the summer that gave him some great info that turned out to be correct, so there was a period where I was tuning into him more seriously. 

I think that source is now, for some reason, unavailable to him as I've seen him gravitate more to wishful thinking and speculation in his reports rather than good info.

I saw his coverage of the Kinburn Spit landing and I agree, the images looked like stock footage and I haven't seen anyone confirm that it was actual footage of the supposed raid.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on November 18, 2022, 05:18:16 PM
There was an video some time ago about UKr pilots putting together their own training simulators for training on F16's (I think).  They had even hired some ex-pilots.

And what are we going to do for war info and entertainment if Twitter collapses in the next week.  Telegram? ISW?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 18, 2022, 05:45:14 PM
Interesting interview on corruption in the Ukrainian military and in the foreign legion, in particular.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 18, 2022, 06:19:15 PM
Thanks for the responses. I too saw the early video and read the russian response. Seemed like it was too strong a social media signal, too early in the supposed operation to be legitimate... yet it persisted.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 18, 2022, 11:29:16 PM
After watching that video, corruption in the Ukraine? Military equipment being stolen right and left? A War of Attrition lasting possibly for years to come? Why is this the first time I'm hearing about this?  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Destraex on November 19, 2022, 10:59:28 PM
As  a DCS player I found this video on the Air War fairly informative. The guy being interviewed by Ward Carrol is some sort of British Analyst from some sort of think tank that has been to the Ukraine pulling apart some of the tech. He describes among other things the way the air war unfolded, how SEAD was conducted and why the common perception of what happened is so slanted.

The part about Mig 31 pairs in sectors getting awacs data link locks for missiles with huge range which has resulted in Ukrainian fighters staying low.

The problem with F16s needing massive runways was also mentioined.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 20, 2022, 01:48:20 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fh-gMxPXEAEh-la?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 20, 2022, 02:52:15 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on November 18, 2022, 05:45:14 PM
Interesting interview on corruption in the Ukrainian military and in the foreign legion, in particular.



Was quite interesting a lot going on there beyond just the reports of corruption as the interview was like an hour and a half of content.  Also seems his experience was prior fall Kharkov Kherson offensives cause he referenced irpin bucha early days to the Donetsk artillery ground n pound of early summer.  Would be nice to hear if the corruption is still bad since his experience cause a lot has changed.

Also he confirmed how unprofessional the Russian military is.  Confirmed civilian casualties in bucha inflicted by Russians.  Confirmed moral of Ukrainians are high and was impressed at how many answered the call.  Also he confirmed no nazis in the azov battalion, it's all Russian propaganda.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 20, 2022, 03:02:19 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 20, 2022, 01:48:20 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fh-gMxPXEAEh-la?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

Good move to physically cut the road as movement is locked to roads with the bad weather, but I would think that movement on this road would have been banned long ago with it being an arty sitting duck.....but with Russia nothing surprises me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 20, 2022, 12:05:38 PM
You're probably right.  My sense is that heavy use of a highway within artillery range is a moving target. 

If you can only hit a road with HIMARS, then the only likely targets would be supply depots, rail yards, etc.  If you can hit it with heavy artillery from 10 miles away bot you don't have constant line-of-sight on the target, convoys are probably scarce but you might be able space vehicles a couple hundred yards apart and keep them driving 40 kmph down the highway (particularly at night time, I'd think).  Artillery fire starts to target intersections more often and hope that they guess right or just put a few craters in a road.

Do I remember that NATO used to have weapons that could deploy bomblets (essentially non-buried mines) across key junction points?  Were those cruise missiles, or artillery, or both?  I heard reports that the Ukes were using those on the highways out of previous Russian strongpoints, but I never heard any details.

If you're within 2 miles and can hit a convoy with direct-fire weapons (e.g., Javelins), then a road is probably profoundly interdicted.

Or so it seems to me.  If others have more knowledge on this topic, their information might be more valuable than my speculation!   ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 20, 2022, 12:40:52 PM
QuoteDo I remember that NATO used to have weapons that could deploy bomblets (essentially non-buried mines) across key junction points?  Were those cruise missiles, or artillery, or both?  I heard reports that the Ukes were using those on the highways out of previous Russian strongpoints, but I never heard any details.

the answer is yes.  the US has given them lots of cluster munition mlrs rockets because the US wont use them anymore for political reasons.  while we arent a signatory to the treaties banning their use we've agreed in principle not to use them anymore.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 20, 2022, 01:13:21 PM
I can say cbu 97s are my go to weapon for ground pounding in dcs.  Nothing like seeing what hundreds of anti vehicle bomblets will do to a Russian armored column, impressive even in a sim world.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 21, 2022, 10:43:44 AM
it would seem winter is here.
this has to be up north because all Ive seen is a mudfest down south.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiGO9kuWYAEV5bj?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 21, 2022, 10:46:50 AM
TIME FOR SOME TRUE RUSSIAN(esque) FIGHTING!  :D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 21, 2022, 10:51:33 AM
Now General Winter takes command. And he's a Bitch to work for.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 21, 2022, 10:56:28 AM
 :DD

https://twitter.com/i/status/1594710224157675521
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 21, 2022, 10:56:53 AM
oh, winter isnt stopping this war at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 21, 2022, 10:57:32 AM
^Even worse to work against!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 21, 2022, 10:59:54 AM
all mythology about russians in winter aside....
NATO tech works ever better during winter.
and guess what the Ukraine is now armed with.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 21, 2022, 11:26:01 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 21, 2022, 10:56:28 AM
:DD

https://twitter.com/i/status/1594710224157675521

Awww, they took down the page before I could read it.  :'(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 21, 2022, 01:10:54 PM
Frontline: Putin's War at Home

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 21, 2022, 01:21:16 PM
First the twitter down, now the video gone?

I sense the Ruskies are redoubling their efforts to try and control the narrative now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 21, 2022, 01:56:51 PM
Another interesting first hand account. I've been following Civ Div for awhile. Seems like a really good dude.

Civ Div posts a lot of go pro footage from his time in Ukraine. This is a good summary of his early experiences and first missions. Seems like it was total chaos, a lot of incompetence and some low level corruption.  Eventually, he developed really bad bronchitis/pneumonia and had to leave, but I think he plans on returning.

Willy OAM is an interesting dude too. Veteran of the Australian military turned journalist who developed an inoperable brain tumor.



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 22, 2022, 08:51:48 AM
News from the spit...sort of.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-live-zelensky-s-men-launch-silent-assault-as-putin-moves-to-cut-off-peninsula/ar-AA14oX4H (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-live-zelensky-s-men-launch-silent-assault-as-putin-moves-to-cut-off-peninsula/ar-AA14oX4H)

Our man Denys also said something about bad weather around the spit keeping activity low.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 22, 2022, 09:38:47 AM
Rumors of further Russian mobilization:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on November 22, 2022, 10:10:46 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 22, 2022, 09:38:47 AM
Rumors of further Russian mobilization:


I stopped watching about the 3 minute mark after he said that Russia had just added 300k reservists to the 1.7 million already in Ukraine (1.7Mill is total russian army size including vast numbers of non-combat personnel) and then said the US claims that Russia has had 100k killed so far (we said 100k total casualties including wounded).   Made me not rely on anything else he might claim. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 22, 2022, 10:36:53 AM
^I noted that too, with the 1.7m.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 22, 2022, 08:54:40 PM
If you think you know what is going on in this war, watch all three and a half hours of this.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 23, 2022, 12:32:46 PM
I'll have to stream this to my big screen TV....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 23, 2022, 12:35:00 PM
Quote from: Windigo on November 23, 2022, 12:32:46 PM
I'll have to stream this to my big screen TV....

I'm still watching it. I'm about 2 and a half hours in. It's worth watching every second.

i commented on the youtube page how war is the ultimate contradiction of extremes, bringing about both the best and worst of humanity. Justin is the ultimate embodiment of the contradiction of war. Matured beyond his years by his experiences, yet still so God damn young and naive.This is a fascinating firsthand account of modern war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 23, 2022, 12:39:33 PM
Damnit JH..... you are compelling me to watch. Your recommendation carries weight given your years of service.

BTW Happy Turkey Holiday.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 23, 2022, 05:22:16 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on November 23, 2022, 12:35:00 PM
Quote from: Windigo on November 23, 2022, 12:32:46 PM
I'll have to stream this to my big screen TV....

I'm still watching it. I'm about 2 and a half hours in. It's worth watching every second.

i commented on the youtube page how war is the ultimate contradiction of extremes, bringing about both the best and worst of humanity. Justin is the ultimate embodiment of the contradiction of war. Matured beyond his years by his experiences, yet still so God damn young and naive.This is a fascinating firsthand account of modern war.

I'll check it out, could be a good downtime fill at work.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 23, 2022, 08:30:32 PM
BREAKING: Russia's Defence Ministry estimates it still needs to fire at least 3000 missiles before Ukraine's living standards get down to Russia's level.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 23, 2022, 09:04:47 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 23, 2022, 08:30:32 PM
BREAKING: Russia's Defence Ministry estimates it still needs to fire at least 3000 missiles before Ukraine's living standards get down to Russia's level.

You of all people should watch the video I posted. Maybe you'll realize you're not watching a football game.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 23, 2022, 10:15:49 PM
I absolutely do.  that doesn's stop me from enjoying humor where I find it or laughing at the stupidity of russia.
I can enjoy the russian turret toss competition while also understanding that 3 guys just got killed and those were real people to other people.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 24, 2022, 11:10:58 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on November 23, 2022, 09:04:47 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 23, 2022, 08:30:32 PM
BREAKING: Russia's Defence Ministry estimates it still needs to fire at least 3000 missiles before Ukraine's living standards get down to Russia's level.

You of all people should watch the video I posted. Maybe you'll realize you're not watching a football game.

If Star was in a squad enduring the suck, I feel he'd be the one who coped with humour... plus he'd be the scrounger/McGyver in the group.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 24, 2022, 11:46:03 AM
100%
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 24, 2022, 11:56:48 AM
one of the things Ive grown fascinated by are the videos of front line field kitchen improvisation.
moral is to material as three is to one.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 24, 2022, 12:22:09 PM
When we set up field camps at our rock hunt sites, the sheer number of butane and propane containers/cylinders present would be bad under different circumstances.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 24, 2022, 12:27:58 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1569064646044454912

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 24, 2022, 03:52:55 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on November 22, 2022, 08:54:40 PM
If you think you know what is going on in this war, watch all three and a half hours of this.



Thanks for sharing this, +1 for well worth watching from me as well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 25, 2022, 12:20:30 PM
I got about 45 minutes under my belt watching this.

I can appreciate the emotions he is leaking out during some of his narrative. I saw a couple of gross things during my short stint as a volunteer firefighter, but it's absolutely nothing to his experience.

And him commenting about having a few regrets regarding his behavior during certain incidents... you know that they are eating at him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 25, 2022, 12:34:41 PM
^keep watching. I'd say the last hour and half or so is the most compelling.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 25, 2022, 04:42:22 PM
Interesting if accurate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 25, 2022, 06:43:20 PM
Quote from: Windigo on November 25, 2022, 04:42:22 PM
Interesting if accurate.

Just looking at the map alone, it seems like the spit is a difficult spot for the Ukrainians. Supply line extended over water, and it seems like it would be easy for the Russians to bottle them up there. So I am wondering if this is just another Ukrainian head fake (like they did over the summer), while they plan on a real fight somewhere else.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 25, 2022, 08:11:44 PM
its a useful distraction.
its also in range of every UkAf arty system so....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on November 25, 2022, 08:15:00 PM
I think Ukraine just probes constantly for weak spots and attacks those weak spots.  Seems the spit was a weak spot that was locally exploited.  Crossing the dnepr seems way better now that one of your flanks could be covered by the spit landing force.  I think Ukraine is going to keep pushing in the south, if they don't, the Russians will just use the troops evaced from Kherson to fight in the donbass.  Mean while Russians still keep attacking at bahkmut, pics look like the Somme on the weastern front WWI.  The bahkmut area has been a blood bath for the mobiks, could be why they are talking about another round of mobilization call ups.  Something tells me they have almost burned through those 300,000.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 26, 2022, 04:51:50 AM
Aftern everyone's watched Justin's interview, here's a next very interesting interview of a Ukrainian officer under callsign "Arty". This does come as propaganda at all, rather some very realistic and solemn conclusions. I don't know his status, seems to perhaps work at brigade level?

Regardless, while he obviously considers what to say, about Kherson bridgehead, he on one hand says while everyone assumed UAF had the bridges over Dnipro covered that was not true, and thus Russia was able to retreat in an organised manner. At the same time he says the systematic destruction of RuAF assets there were quite successful, and in his opinion the mobility of these better RuAF formations is seriously compromised at least for now. Some interesting comments on how UAF rests and recuperates as well. 

Also some realistic insights how he calls those opposing Gen. Milley's calls for negotiation as hotheads, the reality is that while he is confident the pre Feb 24 territories can be "liberated" from occupiers, he is far less confident or even interested, it seems, to "return" (his words, again) the puppet regimes as most pro-Ukrainian majorities have left a long time ago. To "return" Crimea would be even more difficult, while the same problem remains most pro-Ukraine citizens have left the peninsula too. And while he for a minute sounds like a politician, he quickly reverts to the role of a soldier saying that's up to politicians, and that he very much trusts the General Staff and how they plan the war with no gung-ho action but a systematic approach trying to safe as many Ukrainian lives as possible.

Do watch until the end, very interesting commentary on many topics imho.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1596253185836212224

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 26, 2022, 07:42:44 AM
Quote from: Skoop on November 25, 2022, 08:15:00 PM
I think Ukraine just probes constantly for weak spots and attacks those weak spots.  Seems the spit was a weak spot that was locally exploited.  Crossing the dnepr seems way better now that one of your flanks could be covered by the spit landing force.  I think Ukraine is going to keep pushing in the south, if they don't, the Russians will just use the troops evaced from Kherson to fight in the donbass.  Mean while Russians still keep attacking at bahkmut, pics look like the Somme on the weastern front WWI.  The bahkmut area has been a blood bath for the mobiks, could be why they are talking about another round of mobilization call ups.  Something tells me they have almost burned through those 300,000.

  The Ukrainians don't have to cross the Dnepr; they are already across it up north.  Which might be why the Russians are keeping up their spoiling offensive in the Bakhmut area.  I doubt there are any big weak spots left in the Russian lines -- probably nothing but massive attrition and hanging on while peripheral effects like economies and whatnot come into play will change the situation much.  It's like 1917 in WWI -- nothing but blockades and the like are likely to change the calculus of winning and losing until one side (the side actively shooting at civilian populations in the case of WWI vs  passively starving them like the blockade) suddenly caves in with mutinies (the France, Italy and Russia in 1917 and finally Germany in 1918)

Of course, I've been completely wrong about how this war was going to go since the very beginning.  I still find the level of catastrophic Russian bungling very puzzling.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 26, 2022, 02:04:09 PM
The same thing that makes the spit defensible from Russian counterattacks makes it an unlikely place of breakout for the Ukes--the single road leading off the peninsula.  It just represents one more pressure point that the Ukrainians can use in an effort to keep the Russians off balance.  I can't imagine it's anything more than a nuisance to the Russian defenders on the eastern shore of the Dnieper.

That said, in a war of attrition, every nuisance matters.  I think the end game we're likely to see which side runs out of either will to fight (on the one hand) or ammunition (on the other hand). 

Given that the Ukrainians are backed by the entire economy of Western Europe and North America (NATO has a combined GDP of US$45TN), it's hard to imagine that they'll run out of ammunition any time soon (as long as they can keep shuffling out Russian-made weapon systems and replacing them with Western-made weapon systems without having a catastrophic breakdown).  Russia (with a GDP of US$1.8TN) can only hope to secure adequate weapons to buy from China, who seems likely to bankroll them indefinitely although to what extent is not clear (is anything ever clear where China is involved?).

So then it comes down to the will to fight.  It's a little unclear if the Russian army's morale will collapse before the Ukrainian will to fight does.  Fighting in Ukraine is a double-edged sword--it inflicts unbelievable hardship on the Ukrainian people, but it also makes them a lot more pissed than if the two countries were fighting each other for the sake of Estonia. 

The most likely scenario is that the Russian will to fight collapses before the Ukranian will to fight does.  And I suspect that the Chinese will to supply is more likely to expire than the NATO will to supply. 

But at this point, it seems like a lot more young men and elderly civilians will experience the sort of stuff that the young man in Jarhead's video talks about before any of those four things happen.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 27, 2022, 07:44:19 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1596760624213929984
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on November 27, 2022, 11:44:24 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 27, 2022, 07:44:19 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1596760624213929984

Nice footage, but I don't think it is recent.  It looks like it might be from earlier this year, as the vegetation looks very green to me.  {Note: I know Star isn't claiming it is recent.  I just wanted to point out that it may be dated footage]
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 27, 2022, 01:10:47 PM
I'd respectfully request that, if a poster expects us to click on a link, they should be willing to type one or two sentences about WHY we should click on the link.  Does that make me the equivalent of an old man yelling at teenagers to get off my Internet lawn?   :))
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 27, 2022, 04:25:52 PM
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/044/247/297.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on November 27, 2022, 04:34:06 PM
Obviously, he plans on ambushing us with links to home movies in the future.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 27, 2022, 04:58:03 PM
WWII ETO 'Panther' replica spotted being used as a decoy by a UAR unit similar to the Azov Battalion.

The creator of the video quickly mentions how twisted this is and it touches on some of the reasons why the Russo-Ukrainian War started to begin with.

Only about 6 minutes long with some long ads embedded, it's still an interesting video.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Destraex on November 28, 2022, 02:44:10 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 27, 2022, 01:10:47 PM
I'd respectfully request that, if a poster expects us to click on a link, they should be willing to type one or two sentences about WHY we should click on the link.  Does that make me the equivalent of an old man yelling at teenagers to get off my Internet lawn?   :))
Not at all. I often think the same thing. We are here to read the content in this forum and without a fairly convincing spiel about why I should click on a link I often just treat a link as spam or clickbait. You will see me asking questions about something while others scratch their heads thinking I watched some video that was linked. I am fairly over some other social media (not here) where the order of the day is for spammers/clickbaiters to throw links with one or two words into a group and expect to generate revenue clicks. That's not here, but it could be.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 28, 2022, 03:55:47 PM
Apparently, this thread was locked at some point today. This seems to have been inadvertent and unintended.

You have all been doing great at keeping it courteous and away from prohibited R&P content. Keep up the good work.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on November 28, 2022, 04:51:30 PM
Quote from: Gusington on November 27, 2022, 04:25:52 PM
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/044/247/297.png)
I believe this was what tipped the algorithm into R&P
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 28, 2022, 04:55:40 PM
When in doubt, blame Gusington. That's my philosophy too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 28, 2022, 05:08:03 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 27, 2022, 01:10:47 PM
I'd respectfully request that, if a poster expects us to click on a link, they should be willing to type one or two sentences about WHY we should click on the link.  Does that make me the equivalent of an old man yelling at teenagers to get off my Internet lawn?   :))

A peer at last!   :hug: :hug: :hug: :smitten: :smitten: :smitten:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 28, 2022, 11:23:34 PM
The way I look at it, the teenagers started it.  >:(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 29, 2022, 12:00:45 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 27, 2022, 01:10:47 PM
I'd respectfully request that, if a poster expects us to click on a link, they should be willing to type one or two sentences about WHY we should click on the link.

I agree if the person posting it is some unknown entity.  if Im posting something on this site its either funny, titties or germane to the thread its in.  sometimes I get the trifecta.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on November 29, 2022, 07:18:20 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 28, 2022, 11:23:34 PM
The way I look at it, the teenagers started it.  >:(

A-holes!  :tickedoff:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 29, 2022, 09:13:49 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 29, 2022, 12:00:45 AM
if Im posting something on this site its either funny, titties or germane to the thread its in.  sometimes I get the trifecta.  :bd:

New challenge set...?!?  :o :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on November 29, 2022, 09:23:09 AM
Boobs - Check
Funny - Yes
German - Also

(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.quickmeme.com%2Fimg%2Fa5%2Fa59bf1ba90e971f16ad0c76d4995f7d0ddfd179a46582e9e34e2c52605c44e17.jpg&hash=2103d049e64f9b63e5f072cbb078dc113f3db41f)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 29, 2022, 10:44:16 AM
 :dreamer:

:2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 29, 2022, 11:52:31 AM
I can't recall the last time Star posted boobies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 29, 2022, 11:54:07 AM
Quote from: Windigo on November 29, 2022, 11:52:31 AM
I can't recall the last time Star posted boobies.

I was thinking the same thing. Is there a secret subforum I don't have access to? That would be twisted.  :knuppel2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 29, 2022, 11:56:52 AM
Heh, I didn't get the pun at first! Well played!

("German" for "germane")
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on November 29, 2022, 02:26:22 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 29, 2022, 11:56:52 AM
Heh, I didn't get the pun at first! Well played!

("German" for "germane")
You are not alone  :wow:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on November 29, 2022, 03:56:47 PM
Another long, but interesting discussion focusing on a number issues, including foreign prisoner of war exchanges, Russian conscription issues and whether the Russian military is being underestimated.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 29, 2022, 04:52:32 PM
Quote from: Windigo on November 29, 2022, 11:52:31 AM
I can't recall the last time Star posted boobies.

somewhere in this very thread Ive posted several hot Ukrainian women in the army.
theres also a video of two of them doing a pretty damn good job of singing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 29, 2022, 04:55:07 PM
its Himars o'clock!   <:-)
some russian  L:-) positions are about to be very very unhappy!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1597658020464721921

another

https://twitter.com/i/status/1597661980957245441
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on November 29, 2022, 07:36:15 PM
Something about reading this headline just warms my heart.  "Finland Offers to Train Ukraine Soldiers in Winter Warfare Against Russia"

https://www.newsweek.com/finland-nato-niinisto-helsinki-training-weapons-ukraine-soldiers-1763166

Can't wait for the snow to start speaking Ukrainian!   :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 30, 2022, 01:53:39 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on November 29, 2022, 07:36:15 PM
Something about reading this headline just warms my heart.  "Finland Offers to Train Ukraine Soldiers in Winter Warfare Against Russia"

https://www.newsweek.com/finland-nato-niinisto-helsinki-training-weapons-ukraine-soldiers-1763166

Can't wait for the snow to start speaking Ukrainian!   :bd:

Here's hoping a good measure of winter gear is being sent as well. M05 camo works amazingly well, while the star of this picture are the rubber boots with felt inner boots within. Would be literally worth their weight in gold in the muddy trenches we're seeing.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiUYSf5WYAALFXk?format=jpg&name=medium)

source https://twitter.com/kinnunen_kimmo/status/1595708371751301122

edit another picture by him because why not. The third guy in the picture is already quite hard to see.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiRfFIpWYAE8X1r?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 30, 2022, 08:32:00 AM
I really like the 'fencing mask' option for camo and warmth. (And snow glare.) Didn't know those were a thing now!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 30, 2022, 09:16:45 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 30, 2022, 08:32:00 AM
I really like the 'fencing mask' option for camo and warmth. (And snow glare.) Didn't know those were a thing now!

Like any northerner, I'd take -10C and snow any day before +5C and rain and mud, not to mention the November slush we now have in Helsinki.

Relevant to this topic, it is so important to keep dry, to eat warm food, to warm up while off-duty, something I'd assume Ukrainians handle better than (seemingly) orphaned mobiks in their little dug-outs. Hypothermia will get you even above freezing, unless you have the energy and know-how as how to handle yourself in the cold and the wet.

Good equipment helps too (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiRfBqoXEAMe8ci?format=jpg&name=medium), layered clothing, thin gloves under heavier mittens, etc. And proper footwear, did I mention that  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 30, 2022, 10:55:47 AM
Yeah.  It's the wet that kills you, even more than the cold.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 30, 2022, 11:25:46 AM
Approximately how long would troops in the pic be able to operate in that environment with that equipment? Are we talking hours or minutes here?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 30, 2022, 12:08:38 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 30, 2022, 11:25:46 AM
Approximately how long would troops in the pic be able to operate in that environment with that equipment? Are we talking hours or minutes here?

You mean the pictures I posted? Depends how cold and windy it is, and if possible to warm up somewhere. It used to be forest and darkness were our friends, but with drones with TI capabilities, a tent with a woodburning stove would really lit up there.

Without fires, cold tents but safe from elements, no sleeping bags. Three days? It would be truly miserable towards the end though.

Add winter grade sleeping bags, and being able to stay dry. Two, three weeks? Even longer?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on November 30, 2022, 03:31:29 PM
Longer than I imagined. Thanks Crossroads.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 30, 2022, 06:25:15 PM
russians are now using corpses with paper faces as decoys for drones....
its not a gruesome video.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1598085616432222208
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on November 30, 2022, 09:07:21 PM
Grim shit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 03, 2022, 02:43:38 AM
A long read with 70 pages, and the first proper analysis of Russia's Invasion to Ukraine I've seen. As the authors state, this should not be considered an academic study, as they acknowledge they only have the material available Ukraine agreed to. Also, stops after the first two phases of the invasion, initial invasion and the consecutive Russian regrouping to annex Donbass as a whole. Ukrainian counter offensive materials were still considered to remain under the covers.

A couple of observations from the report:

First, the intension of the invasion as to erase the Ukrainian independence and culture, with all Ukrainians categorised into four categories, where the first category are to be liquidated immediately, the second to be coerced and intimated into submission. Reports of house to house searches with lists of names, executions and torture chambers would seem to corroborate this. Stalin would have been proud.

Another observation: Russian weapons systems are very effective, and their more experienced troops performed very well. However, the cost of the operational surprise Russia achieved was that the lower echelon of commanders were informed about the plans just before the invasion, while soldiers themselves remained unaware of what's about to happen. Confusion followed.

Finally, an interesting comment on drones. While all echelons should have anti UAV capabilities, the report also observes the average lifespan of a commercial drone is three flights, while military grade drones may last six flights.

Wanted to read this before posting. Have a look, a recommended weekend read for sure, plenty of stuff from EW to tank and artillery tactics, and a final chapter as recommendations for UK armed forces, valid for any modern army I'd say.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1597943870154997761

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on December 03, 2022, 02:42:27 PM
Ukraine war: New images show Russian army base built in occupied Mariupol


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63846154 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63846154)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on December 03, 2022, 04:12:59 PM
The best headline I've read all year:

Putin soiled himself after falling down stairs, report claims

https://www.google.com/amp/s/cbsaustin.com/amp/news/nation-world/putin-soiled-himself-after-falling-down-stairs-report-claims-vladimir-russia-russian-ukraine-invastion-nato-generalsvr-general-svr
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on December 03, 2022, 05:00:27 PM
Ruptured barrel of Ukrainian 152mm howitzer D-20 (M1955)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1585147264518889473

...and the US is setting up a field artillery repair center in Poland

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1596641862882062336
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 03, 2022, 05:27:24 PM
Crossroads, in the Carroll interview of the British analyst mentioned a few pages upthread, the Brit also observed that, in the airspace over Ukraine, expensive military-grade drones don't seem to last that much longer than lower-cost civilian ones that are weaponized.  The Brit specifically observed that American UAVs, like the Predator, were built for low-intensity conflict, where they pack considerable firepower and can loiter over targets for extended periods of time.

In a high-intensity conflict like Ukraine, he suggests that it's looking like low-cost and one-shot drones (e.g., the US "Switchblade") that can arrive in great quantity and be easily replaced are likely to be much more cost-efficient.  He stated that we now know that all the footage of the Turkish Bayraktar drones we were seeing released by Ukrainian media for months on end was all footage taken over the first week of their deployment and then dribbled out as misinformation.  The Bayraktars were effective, he said, but only for one or two weeks before the Russians adjusted their AA doctrine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 03, 2022, 09:46:21 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjCSQkFXEAAPnSc?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 03, 2022, 10:02:54 PM
Putin is so full of shit, would anyone even notice if he soiled himself?  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 03, 2022, 10:13:04 PM
Now he's a quart low?  >:D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 03, 2022, 10:18:54 PM
 :D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 03, 2022, 11:55:22 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjGWkHaXoAECX8G?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on December 04, 2022, 01:59:17 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 03, 2022, 11:55:22 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjGWkHaXoAECX8G?format=jpg&name=medium)

What is the context of this photo?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 04, 2022, 02:09:53 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on December 03, 2022, 05:27:24 PM
Crossroads, in the Carroll interview of the British analyst mentioned a few pages upthread, the Brit also observed that, in the airspace over Ukraine, expensive military-grade drones don't seem to last that much longer than lower-cost civilian ones that are weaponized.  The Brit specifically observed that American UAVs, like the Predator, were built for low-intensity conflict, where they pack considerable firepower and can loiter over targets for extended periods of time.

In a high-intensity conflict like Ukraine, he suggests that it's looking like low-cost and one-shot drones (e.g., the US "Switchblade") that can arrive in great quantity and be easily replaced are likely to be much more cost-efficient.  He stated that we now know that all the footage of the Turkish Bayraktar drones we were seeing released by Ukrainian media for months on end was all footage taken over the first week of their deployment and then dribbled out as misinformation.  The Bayraktars were effective, he said, but only for one or two weeks before the Russians adjusted their AA doctrine.

Yes, that would seem the consensus so far. The report mentioned this as well that TB-2s were most effective in the first phase of war, when Russian columns were not that well organised and were ordered to advance with expectation for little or no resistance. That's when UAF also had their most successful CAS missions.

From page 57 there's also other interesting observations. TB-2s were most effective as maritime patrolling assets, while recon and fire observation drones would benefit from loitering munitions to counter any radar or EW assets their presence lights up.

On another note, found out there's a video from the authors as well: https://twitter.com/RUSI_org/status/1597983805972705281
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 04, 2022, 06:36:45 AM
Two police officers looking at a fragment pile of Russian rockets that hit Ukraine's second largest city.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjGnDIgVsAA-Ayh?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 04, 2022, 06:38:00 AM
Quote from: fran on December 04, 2022, 01:59:17 AM
What is the context of this photo?

UAF infantry outside, and still holding, Bakhmut.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on December 04, 2022, 09:52:26 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 04, 2022, 06:36:45 AM
Two police officers looking at a fragment pile of Russian rockets that hit Ukraine's second largest city.


  The level of mind-boggling Russian craziness there is well....mind-boggling.  Let me just add, as usual, I don't understand what on earth went wrong with the Russians.  Shooting a
gazillion crappy missiles at a city is just loony no matter how you look at it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 04, 2022, 12:09:35 PM
Bakhmut = the new Kherson?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 04, 2022, 12:34:42 PM
Not really.  Bakhmut is more like the new Stalingrad, but it's unclear who's winning.  It's the city on the northern side of the Eastern front where the Russians have been pressing attacks for the last few months, probably as a spoiling attack on other moves the Ukrainian army might want to make in the East.  There have been a few reports that the Russians might be winning, but the photo that Star posted shows a squad of Ukrainian soldiers posing happily in front of Bakhmut.

With any video or photographic media that are posted on line, I have no idea if anybody can tell whether they are current or as old as the footage of all those successful drone attacks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on December 04, 2022, 12:45:40 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on December 04, 2022, 12:34:42 PM
Not really.  Bakhmut is more like the new Stalingrad, but it's unclear who's winning.  It's the city on the northern side of the Eastern front where the Russians have been pressing attacks for the last few months, probably as a spoiling attack on other moves the Ukrainian army might want to make in the East.  There have been a few reports that the Russians might be winning, but the photo that Star posted shows a squad of Ukrainian soldiers posing happily in front of Bakhmut.

With any video or photographic media that are posted on line, I have no idea if anybody can tell whether they are current or as old as the footage of all those successful drone attacks.

  Its a strange situation on that middle section of the war:  rumors that the Russians are withdrawing on the western side (perhaps to avoid getting trapped against the Dnepr?  Or to trap the Ukrainians into getting trapped against the Dnepr?) while not far from there the Russians have been throwing attacks at Bakhmut for months.  I can't imagine what either side is doing in that area except that it seems kind of dangerous since a Ukrainian thrust to Melitpol would cut off the Crimea and a Russian effort to cut off such a thrust could give them a big win.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 04, 2022, 03:12:40 PM
Bakhmut is a wagner sector of the front line.  it would seem that all theyre doing is throwing men into a meat grinder with no thought given to maneuver or tactics.  its basically where russian is sending its prision population to die.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 04, 2022, 05:02:17 PM
Reminds me of Hitler's obsession with taking Stalingrad. Limited strategic value, but it has become a major political objective.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 04, 2022, 09:17:43 PM
One of the many odd things about the Russian front is that entirely separate armies occupy different sectors.  Not just like "7th Army controls this sector and 12th Army controls that sector", but like, "Wagner Group runs this part of the front, pro-Russian Ukrainian units run this other part of the front, Russian reserve units run this third part of the front, Russian regular military runs the south, but you see other groups mixed in at different places as the need arises."

Wagner Group is trying to turn Bakhmut into a meat grinder.  There's no doubt that they're succeeding with grinding up their own meat.  Casualty reports for the Ukrainians are much less clear but apparently not as light as was originally hoped.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 04, 2022, 10:38:21 PM
I recall seeing a headline last week above a week-summary posted by a major paper or mag (Newsweek or something), which said the Russians are giving up organizing their troops into BTGs -- but scrolling down through the summary didn't provide any information about the headline. Anyone else see something like that? (Was it posted upthread and I've just forgotten?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 04, 2022, 11:39:31 PM
I've not seen it.  But it does seem that the BTG works better as a hard-hitting, fast-moving force intended to bulldoze underarmed opposition in low-intensity conflicts. 

I did run across this article which I thought was interesting.  It's a bit short on specifics (Politico isn't among my favorite sites for sure), but it's one of the first times I've seen any kind of mainstream media source tackle the issue of what our current military-industrial complex can learn from the war in Ukraine.  Among other things, while we seem to do an okay job at building the weapons systems that everybody wants, we really lack the ability to ramp up production of even simple stuff in a hurry.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/04/pentagon-industry-struggle-to-arm-ukraine-00072125

I get why you can't just spin up another assembly line for F-35s or ATACMS (I know, we aren't making any more ATACMS ever), but it's a little more surprising to me that it's going to take us 2 years to double the number of 155mm howitzer shells we manufacture.  I'm not sure if there are lessons to be learned in terms of how we calibrate our force mix, how we handle our contracting process, and how we propose to arm opponents who might be in a high-intensity conflict. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 05, 2022, 12:26:01 AM
am I incorrect in thinking that the smallest force structure the US uses in the brigade?
IIRC thats what weve been rolling around Europe for a while now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 05, 2022, 12:58:35 AM
Ka-25 getting the living shit smacked out of it.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1599607246216101888
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 05, 2022, 02:11:50 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on December 04, 2022, 10:38:21 PM
I recall seeing a headline last week above a week-summary posted by a major paper or mag (Newsweek or something), which said the Russians are giving up organizing their troops into BTGs -- but scrolling down through the summary didn't provide any information about the headline. Anyone else see something like that? (Was it posted upthread and I've just forgotten?)

UK Ministry of Defence posted about this a week ago: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1597482502200983552

ISW, citing the above, reported on this here: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-29

QuoteThe United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on November 29 that Russian forces have likely stopped deploying battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in the past three months.[4] The UK MoD stated that the BTGs' relatively low allocation of infantry, decentralized distribution of artillery, and the limited independence of BTG decision-making hindered their success in Ukraine.[5] ISW assessed starting in April that Russian BTGs were degraded in various failed or culminated Russian offensives, including the attacks on Kyiv, Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk, and later efforts to reconstitute these BTGs to restore their combat power have failed.[6] Russian forces have likely since thrown their remaining combat power and new personnel, including mobilized personnel, into poorly trained, equipped, and organized ad hoc structures with low morale and discipline.[7] The structure of BTGs and the way the Russian military formed them by breaking up doctrinal battalions, regiments, and brigades likely deprived the Russians of the ability to revert to doctrinal organizations, as ISW has previously assessed, so that the Russians must now rely on ad-hoc structures with mobilized personnel.[8]

I recall seeing additional comments such as the low number of foot soldiers at 200 or so is too small to both secure their flanks while performing the attacking mission.

Another interesting tidbit somewhere was a comment that while BTG is sort of a mini brigade with brigade level supporting units, artillery etc, the BTG HQ is still a battalion level organization with only 5-6 officers, and they can't handle everything 7*24 themselves.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 05, 2022, 02:37:08 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 05, 2022, 12:26:01 AM
am I incorrect in thinking that the smallest force structure the US uses in the brigade?
IIRC thats what weve been rolling around Europe for a while now.

Afaik most everyone uses brigade as the basic independent manoeuvre unit. To add to my previous post, this article did the rounds a few years back as lessons learnt of the first years of war in  Donbass, comparing a US ABCT to a (single) Russian BGT.

https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf

While one would assume a brigade gets the upper hand against an enforced battalion, it is yet an interesting study of a single motorised BTG pros and cons. For instance:

QuoteIdea in brief

The BTG strategic imperative is to control1 terrain to shape post-conflict negotiations. When possible, the BTG commander will employ his strike assets to cause casualties to pressure his opponent to negotiate a settlement, but he must also preserve his own strength because it cannot be regenerated operationally and casualties are strategically expensive. To preserve combat power, BTGs employ a force of local paramilitary units as proxy forces to secure2 terrain and guard3 the BTG from direct and indirect attack.

Although Russian tactical defeats were uncommon and typically ended in an operational stalemate rather than decisive defeat, Ukrainian regular-army successes exist in sufficient number to suggest that Russian BTGs present tactical vulnerabilities that can be exploited by BCT commanders:


  • Shortages in ready maneuver forces, especially infantry, significantly limit Russian maneuver capabilities. BTGs cannot simultaneously mass for offensive operations and maintain flank and rear security, and they struggle to concentrate artillery against attacks on multiple simultaneous axes.
  • Command-and-control (C2) limitations require the BTG commander to concentrate mission-command and intelligence assets to direct-fires and EW shaping efforts and strikes. These assets are employed selectively to substitute for offensive maneuvers, are not available across the entire BTG's battlespace and can be overloaded by aggressive dispersion and displacement tactics.
  • BTGs cannot quickly regenerate combat power without cannibalizing other units in theater or garrison. Once teams and units are degraded by casualties, they will rapidly lose effectiveness until completely reconstituted. In the face of a credible threat, maneuver and support assets will likely be withdrawn and conserved for future use.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 05, 2022, 08:32:37 AM
I've generally understood that, in modern armed-force terms, a "division" is the smallest command force that includes all the components normally assigned to an army, which is why brigades are the usual force projection or defense organization (though still with a general command rank). Putting it another way, a "division" is the smallest "army" (roughly speaking) and a "brigade" is the largest non-army force: e.g., a brigade may not have integral air power groups, but a division will.

This goes back at least as far as the combined-arms forces of WW2, but the Germans didn't use brigades per se, although I don't recall whether they had battalions made of regiments or regiments made of battalions (the two containers being often interchangeable in armies up to that time), or even whether they left out one of them, (i.e. only battalions or only regiments). But of course, they eventually (not sure when) started using the famous ad hoc Kampfgruppe force organizations, which.... kinnnnnd of served the same purpose as a brigade, but less permanently.

Russian BTGs could be considered the successor to the Kampfgruppes, but with more of a standardized focus on blitz tactics whereas the KGs could be set up for any mission according to the needs of the moment. Which cost organizational cohesion, something that haunted the Wehrmacht/Heer/SS forces throughout the war, as Eisenhower judged in his Crusade in Europe memoir: in his estimation, the paranoia and competitiveness natural to the Nazi ideology, expressed as C&C inefficiency, was the primary factor that cost Hitler the war.

Which has some bearing on Russia's tactical and strategic failures, too. ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 05, 2022, 09:02:22 AM
Massive wave of strikes incoming?



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 05, 2022, 11:01:48 AM
I will say it again, it looks like from the video, that the Ukrainians may benefit as much, or more from a temporary Cease-Fire than the Russians. The Orcs probably wouldn't honor it or would ask for the Moon in return but winter can last a long time especially if you don't have heat and water.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 05, 2022, 11:06:49 AM
The Ukrainians are claiming that they damaged two of those bombers in a drone strike.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/video-captures-russian-bombers-exploding-in-ukrainian-drone-strike/ar-AA14UE2E?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9200de1e084142a4bbb10b2136dd0b9c (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/video-captures-russian-bombers-exploding-in-ukrainian-drone-strike/ar-AA14UE2E?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9200de1e084142a4bbb10b2136dd0b9c)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 05, 2022, 12:37:35 PM
Hearing some chatter that two or three companies of the Wagruk-Hais got obliterated trying to assault Bahkmut yesterday. Will see if I can get confirmation somewhere about the Wagner Group's fat lady singing (so to speak).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 05, 2022, 01:43:18 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on December 05, 2022, 12:37:35 PM
Hearing some chatter that two or three companies of the Wagruk-Hais got obliterated trying to assault Bahkmut yesterday. Will see if I can get confirmation somewhere about the Wagner Group's fat lady singing (so to speak).

"Wagruk-Hai" ....  good one... :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 05, 2022, 02:23:31 PM
"Where there's a whip, there's a way".  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on December 05, 2022, 02:26:19 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on December 05, 2022, 11:01:48 AM
I will say it again, it looks like from the video, that the Ukrainians may benefit as much, or more from a temporary Cease-Fire than the Russians. The Orcs probably wouldn't honor it or would ask for the Moon in return but winter can last a long time especially if you don't have heat and water.

Neither side is going to even consider a cease fire before the rasputitsa.

With their western winterized equipment the UAF feels it will have an advantage when the hard freeze is complete and has offensive ops planned soon, strong rumors indicating them finally opening an assault towards Melitopol.

For the Russians every day they get stronger as they plug in mobilized troops as static formations freeing up regular troops for refit and a probable offensive of their own.   

In the overall scheme of things, the UAF probably benefits the least as the Russians are using the fall lull to fortify and reinforce.

Once the rasputitsa comes the UAF will have an increasingly good reason to ask for one depending on the situation.   The Russians might even agree as it will give them time to prepare for the expected northern offensive that will likely come in the spring. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 05, 2022, 03:03:45 PM
great day for the Ukraine!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjO7NLGXwAcNJUz?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjPANyLXwA8bibL?format=jpg&name=900x900)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjO4IP9X0AEbHP5?format=jpg&name=medium)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 05, 2022, 03:05:25 PM
a Gerpard shooting down a cruise missle!   :dreamer:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1599810159236112406
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 05, 2022, 03:06:30 PM
and a victory dance!   <:-)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1599644738189070337
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 05, 2022, 05:35:55 PM
Shuffle dance? Pikachu dance? Israeli Armed Forces ladies will be jealous!  O0

(....pondering ethical philosophy if she started an OnlyFans page to bring cash support to her company...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 05, 2022, 05:37:15 PM
Meanwhile, for some discussion of the Uk drone strike on the bombers, and some video of an impact on the base (which starts car alarms beeping once the wave-front arrives):



This is only a 12:25 video, not one of his 3ish hour ones, don't worry.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 05, 2022, 06:01:04 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 05, 2022, 03:05:25 PM
a Gerpard shooting down a cruise missle!   :dreamer:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1599810159236112406

The Gepards seem to have found their time and place.

Interesting 3 min long piece from Radio Free Europe talking to a Ukrainian Gepard crew. In response to ammunition shortage they say they don't need much. Only three rounds per barrel to take out a Shahed drone.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 06, 2022, 10:37:21 AM
I thought this was an interesting observation on the mix of western attitudes towards the war in Ukraine.

QuoteI'll keep saying this, GWOT poisoned a lot of wells in the military and civilian spaces. Waging wars of choice vs a war preserve your State couldn't be more different. It has skewed perspectives for many on how or if we should even support Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 06, 2022, 12:46:55 PM
What is GWOT?  Gus' Weiner out There?  George Washington Over-the-Top?  German-War-Ost-Theater?  Get Wales on Top?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 06, 2022, 12:59:51 PM
Global War on Terror, sir.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on December 06, 2022, 02:21:52 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on December 06, 2022, 12:46:55 PM
What is GWOT?  Gus' Weiner out There?  George Washington Over-the-Top?  German-War-Ost-Theater?  Get Wales on Top?

You're missing a letter.  GWOTL - German Weapons of the Luftwaffe.  The sister game to SWOTL.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 06, 2022, 03:08:19 PM
That explains it. I was leaning toward, "Greedy Woodchucks Ordering Takeout". Where is my head?  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 06, 2022, 05:27:37 PM
I was thinking Grumpy Wargamers On Toilet.  That would certainly poison some wells (see original reference if you've forgotten by now).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on December 06, 2022, 06:22:30 PM
Gerbil Warriors Offending Tourists
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 06, 2022, 06:59:03 PM
 :-[
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 07, 2022, 11:07:53 PM
Right there with you Con. Nothing's more offensive than trying to tour a great museum while those little gerbil soldiers are sticking you in the ankles with their damned little spears.  >:(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 08, 2022, 03:26:24 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjeNPfQXoAEc0PT?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 08, 2022, 04:07:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 08, 2022, 03:26:24 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjeNPfQXoAEc0PT?format=jpg&name=large)


sometimes less is more   :P
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 08, 2022, 04:30:53 PM
maybe get a bigger monitor.  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 09, 2022, 08:56:41 AM
Haven't had time to watch this myself yet; after work later...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 10, 2022, 02:27:57 AM
Quote from: Con on December 06, 2022, 06:22:30 PM
Gerbil Warriors Offending Tourists

I am aware this is a gaming forum, but stlll  a bit surprised this acronym was not widely recognized  ???

GWOT, or the Gerbils - Weaknesses - Opportunities - Threats quadrant is a popular method for assuring value for stockholders. Basically, according to method, the more gerbils a business can acquire the better it will fare against competition.  :nerd:

(https://assets.petco.com/petco/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/gerbil-care-sheet)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 10, 2022, 03:22:38 AM
From gerbils back to Russia's War against Ukraine.

Lawrence Freedman's sub stack with yet another good analysis imho at least as where we are at the moment. Here's the conclusion, but well worth reading as how he got there

QuoteAll this can be taken as evidence that even those more prepared to give Russia the benefit of the doubt, and point to what they believe to be NATO's culpability and hypocricy, see Putin's war as a lost cause. They can now see what has been apparent to military analysts for some time. Putin's army are unable to solve his Ukraine problem, and their efforts to do so have only made the situation worse.

Nothing can now be done to reset Russo-Ukrainian relations for the long-term in a way that would serve his interests and be at all stable. The gap between his desired ends and available means has grown ever wider over the past nine months.

The war was lost long ago. The challenge remains one of getting Putin and his circle to accept this view. If this is to happen there is no alternative to keeping up the military pressure.

https://samf.substack.com/p/is-russia-losing?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on December 10, 2022, 12:51:46 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on December 10, 2022, 03:22:38 AM
From gerbils back to Russia's War against Ukraine.

Lawrence Freedman's sub stack with yet another good analysis imho at least as where we are at the moment. Here's the conclusion, but well worth reading as how he got there

QuoteAll this can be taken as evidence that even those more prepared to give Russia the benefit of the doubt, and point to what they believe to be NATO's culpability and hypocricy, see Putin's war as a lost cause. They can now see what has been apparent to military analysts for some time. Putin's army are unable to solve his Ukraine problem, and their efforts to do so have only made the situation worse.

Nothing can now be done to reset Russo-Ukrainian relations for the long-term in a way that would serve his interests and be at all stable. The gap between his desired ends and available means has grown ever wider over the past nine months.

The war was lost long ago. The challenge remains one of getting Putin and his circle to accept this view. If this is to happen there is no alternative to keeping up the military pressure.

https://samf.substack.com/p/is-russia-losing?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Terrific summary. Freedman is absolutely right about the annexation of the four provinces. Of all the blunders, the annexation is one where Putin has painted himself in a corner.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on December 11, 2022, 03:25:35 AM

Ukrainian strike hits Russian barracks in occupied Melitopol
Complex reportedly struck by Himars rockets may have been a stronghold of Wagner mercenary group that fights for Kremlin



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/11/ukrainian-himars-missiles-hit-russian-occupied-melitopol?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on December 11, 2022, 04:03:12 AM
Do not agree with the author of this article. Putin would like to restore the Soviet Union, or at least a 'revised' version of it. While drawing attention away from the kleptocracy Russian state. It is not the West provoking him, but Putin trying to regain his position at the top table. Why would he allow intervention in Syria and Africa by the Wagner group?

The author

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11524385/PETER-HITCHENS-arrogance-folly-Ukraine-send-nuclear-catastrophe.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 11, 2022, 06:22:25 PM
a little close combat tank on tank action.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1602030183694860288

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on December 11, 2022, 09:22:55 PM
Quote from: fran on December 11, 2022, 04:03:12 AM
Do not agree with the author of this article. Putin would like to restore the Soviet Union, or at least a 'revised' version of it. While drawing attention away from the kleptocracy Russian state. It is not the West provoking him, but Putin trying to regain his position at the top table. Why would he allow intervention in Syria and Africa by the Wagner group?

The author

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11524385/PETER-HITCHENS-arrogance-folly-Ukraine-send-nuclear-catastrophe.html

I'm not sure why it's so difficult for people to understand that Putin has always been a murderous dictator with plans to invade Ukraine and reclaim Soviet territories. The evidence has been obvious for decades. Putin's ideology and playbook have been based on Alexander Dugin's Geopolitics from '97 which called for a plan to sever Britain from the EU, destabilize America, and invade Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 12, 2022, 02:06:14 AM
General Mick Ryan's rather interesting read on how both Russia and Ukraine have adapted their battlefield strategies and tactics over the duration of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Builds partially on the RUSI report a few posts back about lessons learned so far.

First chapters are about background on adaptation and friction, then it gets really interesting.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1602105030274076673

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/winning-the-adaptation-battle?r=1gv0l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 12, 2022, 11:18:35 AM
The West: *exists*
Putin: *provoked*

But of course it isn't really provocation, it's excuse-searching. Also out of Gugin's playbook, but as a systematic policy integrated with other things it goes back to Lenin and Trotsky.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 12, 2022, 01:34:07 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on December 12, 2022, 11:18:35 AM
The West: *exists*
Putin: *provoked*

But of course it isn't really provocation, it's excuse-searching. Also out of Gugin's playbook, but as a systematic policy integrated with other things it goes back to Lenin and Trotsky.

I would never have imagined that they could accomplish as much as they have with the UK.... but here we are.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 12, 2022, 01:38:23 PM
russian detraining exercises.....   ::)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1602351701008302082
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 12, 2022, 03:35:33 PM
current situation around Bakhmut:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjzAvPZXkAoCSIT?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 12, 2022, 03:54:09 PM
^As you guys mentioned last week the Stalingrad vibes are growing even stronger.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on December 12, 2022, 03:55:47 PM
Horse meat's back on the menu, boys!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Toonces on December 12, 2022, 05:18:43 PM
I read today that this war's been going on for 11 months?! 

I don't know why, exactly, but that struck me...that that much time has gone by. With no end in sight...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on December 12, 2022, 05:28:06 PM
Quote from: Toonces on December 12, 2022, 05:18:43 PM
I read today that this war's been going on for 11 months?! 

I don't know why, exactly, but that struck me...that that much time has gone by. With no end in sight...

  I don't think 11 months adds up.  Part of feb plus, March, april, May, June, July August, Sept, Oct, Nov and part of dec...That's nine months plus some weeks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Toonces on December 12, 2022, 05:44:05 PM
Could've been 9 months.  Even that seems kind of surreal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 12, 2022, 08:31:24 PM
Depends on what your start date is. For the Donbas we could say the war started in 2014.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 13, 2022, 09:06:55 AM
For the Crimea.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 13, 2022, 11:36:56 AM
the Letterman/Zelensky interview is pretty damn good.  catch in on netflix.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/david-letterman-interviews-ukraines-zelenskiy-underground-subway-2022-12-12/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 13, 2022, 02:06:59 PM
so it seems the Ukraine is getting Patriots.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 13, 2022, 02:21:07 PM
traversing mud in a ML-TB  :o

https://twitter.com/i/status/1602735572585697280
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on December 13, 2022, 03:33:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 13, 2022, 02:06:59 PM
so it seems the Ukraine is getting Patriots.  :bd:

Interesting, I wonder if they place the patriots in Kharkov close to the Russian boarder, if the patriots will reach into Russia and swat at those mig 31s launching hypersonics and long range A2A missiles.  Not sure if they have the range, but they'll definitely swat incoming cruise missiles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 13, 2022, 03:37:16 PM
me thinks theyll be somewhere in the middle ground.  just the optics of shooting down anything over russian territory might be worth the risk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 13, 2022, 04:59:00 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 13, 2022, 03:37:16 PM
me thinks theyll be somewhere in the middle ground.  just the optics of shooting down anything over russian territory might be worth the risk.

I love the idea of those bad boys just being there.

BTW, I wonder when the UAF are going to send some more of their own homegrown missle teck into Russia for testing purposes of course.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 13, 2022, 08:28:14 PM
The war is in its eleventh (calendar) month.  But it's only been going on for a little less than 10 months.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 14, 2022, 04:56:09 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 13, 2022, 02:21:07 PM
traversing mud in a ML-TB  :o

https://twitter.com/i/status/1602735572585697280

Wow, that's an MT-LBv even, with wide tracks, and it's going nowhere! I guess we can safely conclude that maneuvering season is off.

The wide-tracked version has a feather light ground pressure at 4 Psi, half of that of a foot-mobile person just by himself, no gear. The latest up-armored Bradley IFV has 10 Psi, having just googled it out of curiosity.

MT-LBv are used by Russia's arctic forces, for instance the 80th MRB near Murmanks. Also in use by Finnish Army, with a reputation that if it gets stuck, nothing else will move either.

Edit: Well, had to check, Bv206 all terrain carrier's got a ground pressure of 2 Psi, so half of MT-LBv. But then again it is designed for such a special role. Not sure if even those would work there, the ground looks incredibly soft there.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/73/Hagglunds_Bv206_25th_US_Marines_2.jpg/320px-Hagglunds_Bv206_25th_US_Marines_2.jpg)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 14, 2022, 09:51:16 AM
If the winter in Eastern Europe shapes up to be anything like the one here in semi upstate NY...it's going to be a long one. This has already been a December to remember weather wise.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 14, 2022, 11:56:08 AM
And I hear another big storm is on the way.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 14, 2022, 12:45:36 PM
Yeah, ice...the worst. And of course that finishes off a week of The Wife traveling for work, so she'll be delayed one more day...much like Russian success on the battlefield.

And an even bigger storm is predicted for next week, right around Christmas, for the northeast.

All that said I do not know if the winter has been unusual in any way for eastern Ukraine or just your regular brutal one so far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on December 14, 2022, 12:52:00 PM
Here's an podcast with CNA analyst Michael Kofman on the upcoming winter events.  Well worth the listen: https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/winter-and-beyond-an-inflection-point-in-the-war-over-ukraine/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 14, 2022, 01:11:07 PM
^You whipped that up in under ten minutes!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 14, 2022, 01:24:02 PM
Quote from: Gusington on December 14, 2022, 01:11:07 PM
^You whipped that up in under ten minutes!
He whipped it up so fast he beat the website for getting it available!
All I get is "episode not available".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 14, 2022, 01:30:23 PM
Me too...503 error :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on December 14, 2022, 06:54:27 PM
Quote from: Gusington on December 14, 2022, 01:11:07 PM
^You whipped that up in under ten minutes!
Not really.  It was posted on 8 December.  I listen to it a couple of days ago when working out.  It sounds like you are having trouble getting to the site?  I just checked, and the link is

https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/winter-and-beyond-an-inflection-point-in-the-war-over-ukraine/

It is working for me.  Let me know if you can't see it, and I'll find another method
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 14, 2022, 08:49:53 PM
The podcast is there now, thanks. The site was working before but that particular podcast gave an error.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 15, 2022, 09:46:01 AM
the current state of russian armor.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkA9gBjXkAEDNOR?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 15, 2022, 10:20:55 AM
Looks like some, er...performance enhancements are needed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 15, 2022, 11:09:33 AM
Viagra upgrade? ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 15, 2022, 11:26:40 AM
Looks like expectations have been deflated.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 15, 2022, 12:17:58 PM
An interesting tidbit from The Economist, citing a recently released Ukrainian analysis.  It contradicts some of the fanboi hype surrounding early impressions of the war, but the central message is one that's been recurring:  Western powers need larger stockpiles of expendable items (artillery shells, drones, etc.) and greater ability to ramp-up production volumes on short notice. 

The "peaceful status quo" military procurement system hasn't really prepared us for a high intensity war of even limited scope.  This seems especially true for Western European nations.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/30/what-is-the-war-in-ukraine-teaching-western-armies
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 15, 2022, 01:24:41 PM
a pretty good article about the importance of Bakhmut.

https://typefully.com/J_JHelin/REYoHS7
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 15, 2022, 01:57:37 PM
Is this war a limited war from NATO's point of view (not Ukraine's). Does Russia consider it a limited war? Is there a category between limited and total war?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on December 15, 2022, 02:28:21 PM
Quote from: Gusington on December 15, 2022, 01:57:37 PM
Is this war a limited war from NATO's point of view (not Ukraine's). Does Russia consider it a limited war? Is there a category between limited and total war?

Yes.  "Special Military Operation"   :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on December 15, 2022, 03:11:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 15, 2022, 09:46:01 AM
the current state of russian armor.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkA9gBjXkAEDNOR?format=jpg&name=large)

Ha, it has a limp d                                                                -30 smoothbore 120mm main gun.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 15, 2022, 10:41:24 PM
Is that the new model, "Putin" tank I've been hearing about? You have to admit it's probably very energy efficient. And can double as a Weather Balloon in a high wind.  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on December 16, 2022, 04:34:57 AM
Interview with General Zaluznhyi talking about Russia's current efforts to demoralize the army by freezing their families, gain a ceasefire to rebuild and its coming offensive. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-top-general-no-doubt-russia-will-try-again-kyiv-2022-12
Would be nice to read the Economist's original interview.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 16, 2022, 08:25:10 AM
I expect someone somewhere is making some bank off using inflatable military decoys as bouncy toys for kids.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 16, 2022, 11:08:46 AM
W8t, my friend, you have a dirty mind!

That, or I have a dirty mind?

Oh, heck, I think almost all of us probably have dirty minds!

In other news, I've heard about Russian tanks blowing up in Ukraine a lot...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 16, 2022, 11:11:55 AM
observation balloon?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 16, 2022, 11:19:00 AM
Russia really puts the 'special' into 'special military operations' eh
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 16, 2022, 11:22:40 AM
Quote from: Gusington on December 15, 2022, 01:57:37 PM
Is this war a limited war from NATO's point of view (not Ukraine's). Does Russia consider it a limited war? Is there a category between limited and total war?

The war is clearly limited from NATO's standpoint, at least in terms of scope and involvement.  I think everybody acknowledges that this is the first high intensity military conflict between any two nations that we've seen in a long time, but NATO's role as a non-combatant eases all sorts of logistical burdens on them.

But that makes it all the more remarkable how seriously the West has depleted their inventories of conventional munitions and how far backlogged their orders for replacement parts are. 

For various (mostly good) reasons, Western democracies have opted for a "quality over quantity" approach in terms of weapons procurement, which seems to be revealing some curious shortcomings.  While there is no doubt that quality matters, it seems like our procurement and production processes may have underestimated the importance of producing sufficient quantities of less sophisticated items (e.g., shells, short- and medium-range missiles, trucks, low-cost drones, cannon barrels, etc.). 

If there's one take-away for mililtary/industrial policy in the West, it's that we need to optimize our defense spending to find a better mix of quantity and quality.

Nobody expects us to build another 5,000 F-35s in no time flat, but how about producing enough medium-range SAMs or enough replacement hand-helm comms gear or shipping containers?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on December 16, 2022, 11:26:11 AM
Guilty as charged FarAway!  But remember, a dirty mind is a terrible thing to waste.

As for depleted inventories of munitions I agree with your statements.  One does not simply mass produce missiles in no time flat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 16, 2022, 11:47:13 AM
Yeah.  Apparently the US won't be able to triple our production of 155mm artillery shells until sometime in mid-2023.  That's more than a year after the shooting started, and at least 9 months since we realized how fast we were burning through inventories.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 16, 2022, 01:25:45 PM
to be fair I dont think the US or NATO planned to fight a war the way its being fought now in the Ukraine.
for instance, there would be no russian air force 72 hours after the shooting starts and that opens up all kinds of targeting options
for a shorter conflict.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 16, 2022, 01:39:35 PM
And at the current rate, if China moves against Tiawan, we would have almost nothing to send them. Maybe Ping's plan all along.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 16, 2022, 02:16:15 PM
oh its not nearly that bad.  with all that we're giving the Ukraine we still aren't reaching into our critical stocks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 16, 2022, 02:32:27 PM
Meanwhile...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 16, 2022, 03:43:04 PM
Changing topic a bit...  There's been a ton of media narratives that have emerged from the war in Ukraine, but a lot of them have been totally false and/or wrong.  With the benefit of hindsight, some interesting learnings have emerged from the war.  Folks here have posted a lot of good articles, but I'm a little interested in hearing what trends you all see underlying all that.  A lot of these are lessons we (and the professionals) already knew, but perhaps we didn't attach enough importance to them in policy circles.  Others are a bit more surprising.

Did I miss any major learnings?

1) Training and morale matters a lot. This is one area where both sides have had to improvise a lot, but the Ukrainians have clearly bested the Russians so far.

2) The Russian system is as corrupt as it is evil.  The reality is a little more nuanced than that, but not much.

3) Amateurs talk strategy while professionals talk logistics.  Unless one side's army gives up, the folks who lose will be the first ones to run out of ammunition or food.  This war is becoming more about bullets (or shells) and beans than it is whiz-bang weapons.

4) There's no way to hide well for long.  This means artillery is still queen of the battlefield.  Between signals intelligence, IR scanning, and visual surveillance by cheap drones, surviving is about mobility as much as it is concealment.

5) Better weapons systems can make a big difference, but the enemy finds a way to adapt and respond.  For various reasons, few of them have been as successful for nearly as long as the media makes them out to be. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on December 16, 2022, 04:18:09 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on December 16, 2022, 03:43:04 PM
Changing topic a bit...  There's been a ton of media narratives that have emerged from the war in Ukraine, but a lot of them have been totally false and/or wrong.  With the benefit of hindsight, some interesting learnings have emerged from the war.  Folks here have posted a lot of good articles, but I'm a little interested in hearing what trends you all see underlying all that.  A lot of these are lessons we (and the professionals) already knew, but perhaps we didn't attach enough importance to them in policy circles.  Others are a bit more surprising.

Did I miss any major learnings?

1) Training and morale matters a lot. This is one area where both sides have had to improvise a lot, but the Ukrainians have clearly bested the Russians so far.

2) The Russian system is as corrupt as it is evil.  The reality is a little more nuanced than that, but not much.

3) Amateurs talk strategy while professionals talk logistics.  Unless one side's army gives up, the folks who lose will be the first ones to run out of ammunition or food.  This war is becoming more about bullets (or shells) and beans than it is whiz-bang weapons.

4) There's no way to hide well for long.  This means artillery is still queen of the battlefield.  Between signals intelligence, IR scanning, and visual surveillance by cheap drones, surviving is about mobility as much as it is concealment.

5) Better weapons systems can make a big difference, but the enemy finds a way to adapt and respond.  For various reasons, few of them have been as successful for nearly as long as the media makes them out to be.

   I've been impressed with the Institute for the Study of War.  Let's see what else -- that I am bewildered by almost everything about this war:

1) why Putin attacked?  That's the biggest mystery.  Even if things had gone as planned it would have been a bloody mess -- maybe worse even if the Russians had gotten in and started
killing everybody -- crazy stuff.  How was that supposed to work?  NATO might have gotten really worried and done something rash.
2) A lot of the indepth accounts of the early fighting essentially say that Ukrainian artillery started hitting Russian concentrations early and just kept it up...firiing faster and from shorter
ranges (which seems weird -- like the Russians were so busy getting ready to slaughter the locals that they forgot about neuralizing Ukrainian artillery
3) So (and this seems weird too)...when the Ukrainians did some disarming (turning in ships and nukes and missiles), they did not turn artillery and tanks over to the Russians
4) The Russians had sent a lot of equipment off to Syria and elsewhere.  Failed to concentrate anything for the attack on Ukraine -- again so busy deciding how to kill the right locals
that they neglected to allow for the possibility that the Ukrainian Army might shoot at them.

BIG LESSON HERE -- win the war before you start working on managing the GENOCIDE

So yeah, the Russian "system" (or lack thereof) is beyond corrupt.  At least with a corrupt system, there are ways to rationalize resource management.  No real
sign of that in the bizarre mess the Russians are presenting as their "regime"

Amateurs talk strategy while professionals talk logistics.    However, even an amateur might be able to suggest that if you are going to attack a country with
40 million people in it and
an army with 200,000 active troops and some trained reserves with fairly modern weapons, you should probably plan -- at least potentially -- on fighting a real war.
  After all, if your initial attack gets into trouble (and how could it not since a) you attack everywhere from day one b)it doesn't occur to you that enemy
artillery can turn roads and airfields into deathtraps c) you have no allowance for any substantial resistance
at all etc.)  Anyway...even an amatuer might point out that you need to at least allow for the possibility of having a war on your hands.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 16, 2022, 05:26:53 PM
I believe they were thinking of along the lines of Nazi Germany attacking Denmark.  I wonder if the Nazi's actually expected it to work that well or did they have a plan for resistance?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 16, 2022, 05:34:32 PM
^From my visit to Denmark a few months ago I learned that the Danes, to this day, are embarrassed at how well the German invasion went. They are still extremely sensitive about the whole thing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on December 16, 2022, 06:38:27 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on December 16, 2022, 05:26:53 PM
I believe they were thinking of along the lines of Nazi Germany attacking Denmark.  I wonder if the Nazi's actually expected it to work that well or did they have a plan for resistance?

  Maybe, but the analogy would be closer if Denmark had half the population of Germany, roughly the same weapons systems as Germany, had been fighting a low-intensity war with Germany for
8 years, had been trained by time-traveling US Army troops and if Germany had sent a lot of its air force and anti-air weapons to Syria and if the stated German aim had been to
exterminate Nazis in Denmark and if a large armed Alliance including most of Europe had formed against Germany.  Possibly a scenario with some twists.  Especially the Nazi part.  Even an
Amteur might well suggest an actual war plan of some kind.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 16, 2022, 07:55:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on December 16, 2022, 05:34:32 PM
^From my visit to Denmark a few months ago I learned that the Danes, to this day, are embarrassed at how well the German invasion went. They are still extremely sensitive about the whole thing.

Yeah.  The Danes have always been a bit sheepish about that.  They mostly cooperated with the Germans, and were (for the most part) so easy to rule, that they actually kept greater personal freedom than most occupied peoples.  Their common genetic heritage played a factor, but so did their pacifism. 

There was talk of not admitting Denmark into the United Nations when it was formed, because they'd done so little to resist German rule.  Ultimately, their primary contribution to humanity during WW II was smuggling a ton of Jews out of German-controlled territory (mostly into Sweden).  Since that time, they've been welcomed into NATO (even if they never contributed much) because of their strategic location as the stopper in the Baltic Sea.

The Danes are good people and thoroughly Western.  They just haven't done much effective fighting since the Vikings took the horns off their helmets...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on December 16, 2022, 08:03:08 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on December 16, 2022, 07:55:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on December 16, 2022, 05:34:32 PM
^From my visit to Denmark a few months ago I learned that the Danes, to this day, are embarrassed at how well the German invasion went. They are still extremely sensitive about the whole thing.

Yeah.  The Danes have always been a bit sheepish about that.  They mostly cooperated with the Germans, and were (for the most part) so easy to rule, that they actually kept greater personal freedom than most occupied peoples.  Their common genetic heritage played a factor, but so did their pacifism. 

There was talk of not admitting Denmark into the United Nations when it was formed, because they'd done so little to resist German rule.  Ultimately, their primary contribution to humanity during WW II was smuggling a ton of Jews out of German-controlled territory (mostly into Sweden).  Since that time, they've been welcomed into NATO (even if they never contributed much) because of their strategic location as the stopper in the Baltic Sea.

The Danes are good people and thoroughly Western.  They just haven't done much effective fighting since the Vikings took the horns off their helmets...

  They did reasonably well in the 30-years war sort of I Guess..  The mad Halberstadter managed to get his unpaid Danish mercenaries to charge 10 times at Fleurus in 1622
(where he lost an arm) and that was against
a first-rate Spanish Tercio.  Plus maybe the Mad Halberstadter was optimistic in his reporting as usual.  Christian (the Halberstadter mad or otherwise) was the
secular (Lutheran) bishop of Halberstadt and perhaps this inspired his Danish unpaid mercenaries.  Or Plunder or a desire to be paid by the Dutch if they
could break through.  IRC some did break through and some did get paid eventually in a brief tour with the Dutch.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 16, 2022, 08:28:40 PM
Wow, did that go off topic (what else is new?).  I was just wondering if Russia was expecting the kind of walkover that Germany had vs Denmark?  German ship docks in copenhagen and offloads a few hundred troops who head for palace.  War over.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 16, 2022, 10:58:34 PM
It could be a man like Putin with an enormous ego really believes everyone loves him and lives for the moment he comes to liberate them from their ineffective rulers and make them one with himself. Also if all the people around him climb the ladder of advancement by telling him just what he wants to hear, that he could come to believe conquering his neighbors would be easy. It may be just that simple. Maybe.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 17, 2022, 07:53:59 AM
Last about Denmark, I promise: from my visits to the palaces and military museums in Copenhagen, the Danish narrative explains how there was some early resistance to Germany in 1940 (a few Danish soldiers were killed) and then they were basically absorbed by the Reich and treated very well, as FarAway explained above.

But since WWII they have tried to have as strong a military as possible, deploying to Iraq and other warzones, and are proud of what they have been able to do militarily since then. They are repenting for what they perceive as terrible mistakes in the 1940s. 'Never again.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 17, 2022, 10:39:20 AM
I read a book about the 1940 invasion of Denmark and Norway and there was a good deal about how both countries as well as Sweden, made sure they would not be involved in WWI by fully mobilizing as soon as that war began and maintained their troop levels throughout the entire 4 year conflict. I can't remember how many men they had under arms but it was considerable for such small nations.

There was open resistance to doing the same thing in 1939 because of the cost involved. Also some leaders in those countries wanted a sort of Scandinavian Mutual Defense Treaty including Finland but it came to nothing in the end.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 17, 2022, 03:07:25 PM
What an extraordinary article by NYT. Any subscribers who can post a gift link, I was able to access this only once.

https://twitter.com/john_sipher/status/1604111821471993856
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on December 17, 2022, 03:18:45 PM
If you manage to open the link again you can save the web page text for later reading. You will lose the pix and the formatting might be off but still cheaper than subscribing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 17, 2022, 04:23:40 PM
On the corruption point, probably related to the idea of Russia being beyond corruption (because corruption can only go so far before the corrupted system crashes into dysfunctionality rather catastrophically): something similar can be said for Ukraine, which was also highly corrupted -- and yet they have pulled together, with help, into a disproportionately successful defense.

Corruption levels were qualitatively different? -- quantitatively different? What was being corrupted was a foundation which could respond with increased effective coherence against its own inherent corruption?

Probably a combination of those factors along with external ones (NATO being willing to provide support help). But a comparison of the corruptions and results seems worth thinking about. I am sure I barely have enough accurate information to even begin thinking about it!

But from everything said by Putin before and during his war so far, as well as how he has waged it from the "knock on all doors" "shock and awe" approach onward, he clearly expected the corruption of Ukraine (fostered by himself where possible) to tend to catastrophic disintegration under enough applied force.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on December 17, 2022, 04:43:41 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on December 17, 2022, 04:23:40 PM
On the corruption point, probably related to the idea of Russia being beyond corruption (because corruption can only go so far before the corrupted system crashes into dysfunctionality rather catastrophically): something similar can be said for Ukraine, which was also highly corrupted -- and yet they have pulled together, with help, into a disproportionately successful defense.

Corruption levels were qualitatively different? -- quantitatively different? What was being corrupted was a foundation which could respond with increased effective coherence against its own inherent corruption?


  Corruption can be a sign of adapting to new circumstances.  The most obvious case would be the not-very-corrupt regime of the Committee of Public Safety in the French Revolution.  After
the Thermidorian reaction (summer 1794), the resulting regime (the Directory) was incredibly corrupt, but much more functional than the not-very-corrupt regime of the Terror.

  Putin might be said to have made the basic error of rationalizing corruption rather than letting it run amok and thereby rationalizing the Russian economy the hard way (ie via letting
corruption do its work).  It looks like nothing is worse for resource allocation than corruption controlled from above (as with Putin).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 18, 2022, 03:09:17 AM
Quote from: Staggerwing on December 17, 2022, 03:18:45 PM
If you manage to open the link again you can save the web page text for later reading. You will lose the pix and the formatting might be off but still cheaper than subscribing.

I am registered but do not subscribe currently, this gives me a couple of free articles per month. They had a really nice monthly offer for a year, so I re-subscribed.

Does this link (gift article) work for you guys? Eight Takeaways From The Times's Investigation Into Putin's War (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/17/world/europe/russia-war-putin-facts.html?unlocked_article_code=Oqz-wgpgtjGYv6ao1Q4WmBnt60XxzOba4rzSXtDModHuRU4EwsQ1HjKcrpywDhHyzN0FuZ5m614chGQqwdXbuXxwkqFPXKOEO0Z-SE8LToIc3jbV5R0elUfbcySsQNGicB_ofkg5LzPjBC0Ad9x867P6-OAdwcoWVcQ4bS5LAPhmMNacsMR2tTxWib8rORducmCftNYtxsVOpLzCvTHPpoZjEbRRHhEl3UEUG0B2WadNSQ5aZLE7RF7dIR5XvOi_3BpRjeCPxKt6MJHM3uMqb8f74I7hXlG8A0Yez5U-aWwOrEPlmm4sR--D5OedxmhLiBrNjw-ljvffdf57shL5hDB5JjDt&smid=share-url):

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 18, 2022, 08:19:28 AM
Worked for me. Interesting article although shorter than I expected.   Especially the part about the US trying to stop Ukraine from bombing a top Russian General.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on December 19, 2022, 02:03:39 AM
I was listening to the Battleground: Ukraine (Goalhanger Podcasts) over the weekend. In the episode the spoke the CEO of the HALO Trust about what they are doing in regard to mine and ordnance clearing in Ukraine and the rest of the world.

HALO Trust got its 5min of fame when Princess Diana was photographed in Angola many years ago...

In the episode they mentioned:


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 19, 2022, 07:48:03 AM
Ukrainian Forces successfully conducted a counterattack and pushed Russian Forces out of the outskirts of Bakhmut.
almost 2 months of grinding advances reversed in less then 2 days.  O0

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkVoDykWYAA3wqX?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 19, 2022, 09:38:53 AM
Good news if it holds.  I'm not sure I can match the key to the map, though!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 19, 2022, 03:03:53 PM
So the Russians have a new pop song celebrating the Satan 2 ICBM.

As I tried to watch it (only got about 30 seconds in before I had to stop for health reasons), I could only think that I really want to see a Ukrainian parody of this. Something along the lines of Country Joe's "fix'in to die rag."

https://taskandpurpose.com/culture/russia-military-pop-song-nuclear-icbm-denis-maidanov-video/ (https://taskandpurpose.com/culture/russia-military-pop-song-nuclear-icbm-denis-maidanov-video/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 20, 2022, 08:37:22 AM
Zelensky at the front in Bakhmut, god damn this guy has balls.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fka91_UXkAI1wuK?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 20, 2022, 10:23:27 AM
Whenever I see him in public I wonder what kind of security details he has.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 20, 2022, 10:47:14 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 19, 2022, 07:48:03 AM
Ukrainian Forces successfully conducted a counterattack and pushed Russian Forces out of the outskirts of Bakhmut.
almost 2 months of grinding advances reversed in less then 2 days.  O0

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkVoDykWYAA3wqX?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 20, 2022, 11:00:33 AM
Quote from: Gusington on December 20, 2022, 10:23:27 AM
Whenever I see him in public I wonder what kind of security details he has.

just his balls...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 20, 2022, 12:14:59 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 20, 2022, 08:37:22 AM
Zelensky at the front in Bakhmut, god damn this guy has balls.


Yet, a humble man. Here's his speech with subtitles.

Quote20 December 2022. President Putin awards defenders of his regime in the Kremlin.

President Zelensky delivers a powerful speech to the defenders of the nation, at the most fierce sector of the frontline, in Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1605237743885459456
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 20, 2022, 12:41:24 PM
Two HUGE security details.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Victor on December 20, 2022, 02:14:02 PM
Not sure if it's been posted before, but the Wavell Room had some interesting articles on tactics (or lack thereof) in Bakhmut specifically.

https://wavellroom.com/2022/12/15/the-battle-for-bakhmut/

This other one is about failings in Russian comms and why it's nigh-impossible for them to commit more than groups of ~30 infantry at a time.

https://wavellroom.com/2022/12/19/russian-army-tactical-communications/

There's also this infographic from the article showing the notional comms setup with the stuff that doesn't actually exist because of corruption crossed off...

https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kenigtiger/503961/949457/949457_original.jpg
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 20, 2022, 02:33:19 PM
good articles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 20, 2022, 02:47:45 PM
Hope Germany didn't send any of these to Ukraine!
https://apnews.com/article/nato-technology-germany-d1206cb49d36f5fab1c9848fd99e67de?utm_source=ForYou&utm_medium=HomePage&utm_id=Taboola
Every one of 18 Pumas in an exercise failed.  They're readying decades old Marders to replace them in the NATO Very High Readiness Joint Task Force.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on December 20, 2022, 04:47:06 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 20, 2022, 08:37:22 AM
Zelensky at the front in Bakhmut, god damn this guy has balls.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fka91_UXkAI1wuK?format=jpg&name=large)
With this background this looks like a scene out of a dystopian Terminator or Aliens movie
Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 20, 2022, 05:29:03 PM
Very Terminator.  Cameron used lots of imagery of factories and heavy machinery throughout that film.  It's one of the reasons why the original show in the series got such critical acclaim in some circles, despite being made on a cheap-ass budget with low-class special effects.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 20, 2022, 11:24:49 PM
Zelensky might be a Terminator. Or John Connor. Or John Connor might've been Zelensky.  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on December 21, 2022, 12:13:37 AM
That image is very Stalingrad. 

Not one step back for this strategically unimportant city that the enemy is literally willing to turn into a charnel house to take!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 21, 2022, 01:56:34 AM
I assume that they are hoping to catch the Ukrainians in the same meat grinder?  Or they just want the optics of a win?  Either way, it makes little more sense than a dozen other things that the Russians have done since invading Ukraine.

With no idea what Ukrainian casualties are like there, I guess it's hard to know who might be winning that war of attrition.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 21, 2022, 10:13:11 AM
Can Russia still 'win' this war? What would that look like?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 21, 2022, 11:30:17 AM
And today Mr. Zelensky will come to Washington to address the Congress. He really does have big balls.  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 21, 2022, 01:56:35 PM
it would seem hes landed!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkhRrK3XgA4-8Fj?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 21, 2022, 02:17:39 PM
'and visitors center' ha
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 21, 2022, 03:04:25 PM
One destination I think I will skip.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 21, 2022, 03:21:26 PM
you skip this one as well.
russians really shouldnt smoke around their ammo dumps.  :dreamer:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1605577171111530498

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 21, 2022, 03:22:45 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 21, 2022, 03:21:26 PM
you skip this one as well.
russians really shouldnt smoke around their ammo dumps.  :dreamer:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1605577171111530498

also a pro tip for camera work.
dont stand behind a glass balcony railing when filming explody things. 
fyi this second vid is from Beirut.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1605414067392454657
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 22, 2022, 11:06:30 AM
Russians probably should stop smoking altogether...word on the street is that their one and only aircraft carrier is on fire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 22, 2022, 11:09:03 AM
Well when all you've got to send-up is Hot Air Balloons, fire can be a good thing I guess.  :-"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 22, 2022, 11:36:41 AM
Quote from: Gusington on December 22, 2022, 11:06:30 AM
Russians probably should stop smoking altogether...word on the street is that their one and only aircraft carrier is on fire again.

fixed that for ya
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 22, 2022, 12:59:02 PM
Just watched the Letterman interview of Zelenskyy on Netflix, out a week or so ago I think.

The Russia vs Nato joke's done its rounds, one of the light moments of the interview. Not many light moments there, dark currents.I've not seen him much outside one of his short speeches.

What an extraordinary man.

At one point he answers Letterman's comment on how he leads the country that its not about him, its the soliders who risk their lives everyday, how they must think of them, care of them, to ensure that they know how much everyone supports them. And how "we civilians must not be afraid to risk our lives either." Talk about walking the walk, with his visits to newly liberated Kherson, his visit at frontlines in Bakhmut.

There was also some early videos of him when war started, my god, he looks like his ten year older brother now. What a toll this all is taking on him.

His dream? To go the beach and have a few beers when this all is over. I do hope he lives to see that day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 22, 2022, 01:07:48 PM
Me too - I noticed how much he has aged in the last year on tv last night. I don't know how he deals with stress like that every single day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 22, 2022, 01:25:04 PM
Quote from: Gusington on December 22, 2022, 01:07:48 PM
Me too - I noticed how much he has aged in the last year on tv last night. I don't know how he deals with stress like that every single day.

There are reasons why most great wartime leaders drank and smoked.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 22, 2022, 02:27:30 PM
Quote from: Gusington on December 22, 2022, 01:07:48 PM
Me too - I noticed how much he has aged in the last year on tv last night. I don't know how he deals with stress like that every single day.

Maybe he follows the often grim humour from @uamemesforces to keep his spirits up.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fkmo8CaXEBMQrOB?format=jpg&name=medium)

https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1606000832293441536
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 22, 2022, 03:01:26 PM
Quote from: Windigo on December 22, 2022, 01:25:04 PM
Quote from: Gusington on December 22, 2022, 01:07:48 PM
Me too - I noticed how much he has aged in the last year on tv last night. I don't know how he deals with stress like that every single day.

There are reasons why most great wartime leaders drank and smoked.

There was some heated discourse in certain circles about his choice of wardrobe for the speech. For my money, for a leader in midst of a horrific invasion, he was spot on. A visual reminder that only hours before, the man had stepped off of the battlefield at Bakhmut.  Mensch of the Year? Hell Yes!!!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 22, 2022, 07:45:37 PM
I would think to address the nation who's generosity has saved his people from death and enslavement, putting on a suit and tie wouldn't be too much. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 22, 2022, 08:22:28 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on December 22, 2022, 07:45:37 PM
I would think to address the nation who's generosity has saved his people from death and enslavement, putting on a suit and tie wouldn't be too much.

I would think, for a President whose people are fighting and dying everyday to stave off death and enslavement, it's more important to communicate solidarity with your people than kowtow to the etiquette of your comfortably remote benefactors. 

It's purely my opinion, but I think WE should be grateful to them for thwarting Russian ambitions.  Asking him to dress up seems to me that we're asking him to show gratitude to us for spending money when they're spending the lives of their soldiers and civilians to fight a common foe.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 22, 2022, 09:01:17 PM
QuoteI would think, for a President whose people are fighting and dying everyday to stave off death and enslavement, it's more important to communicate solidarity with your people than kowtow to the etiquette of your comfortably remote benefactors. 

It's purely my opinion, but I think WE should be grateful to them for thwarting Russian ambitions.  Asking him to dress up seems to me that we're asking him to show gratitude to us for spending money when they're spending the lives of their soldiers and civilians to fight a common foe.

100%  :bd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on December 22, 2022, 09:19:38 PM
QuoteI would think, for a President whose people are fighting and dying everyday to stave off death and enslavement, it's more important to communicate solidarity with your people than kowtow to the etiquette of your comfortably remote benefactors.

It's purely my opinion, but I think WE should be grateful to them for thwarting Russian ambitions.  Asking him to dress up seems to me that we're asking him to show gratitude to us for spending money when they're spending the lives of their soldiers and civilians to fight a common foe.

100%

Quote from: Sir Slash on December 22, 2022, 07:45:37 PM
I would think to address the nation who's generosity has saved his people from death and enslavement, putting on a suit and tie wouldn't be too much.

The man has been living in a battlefield for the past year. He has been fighting alongside his countrymen and his clothing reflects his leadership and resolve. Learn from history. Winston Churchill wore his air raid suit to the White House in 1941.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 22, 2022, 09:38:03 PM
Zelensky has to live with a price on his head for the rest of his life while his country is shredded to pieces. He can wear whatever he wants.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 22, 2022, 11:49:14 PM
I would think someone who really wishes to show respect for their supporters would wear better than a Work-Out Suit when thanking them for saving their country. Does the man not own a single suit? If he were at the front fighting Russians he should wear whatever he wants. But there weren't any bullets or bombs aimed at him standing in the well of Congress. So what's the problem? Should he also have worn his Kevlar Vest? What about carrying an AK? Or maybe hand grenades? I bet he didn't arrive in a Humvee or eat C- Rations while chatting with Joe. If you are the representative of a whole nation of people fighting for their survival, dress like you'd want them to be seen by the whole world.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on December 23, 2022, 12:02:55 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on December 22, 2022, 11:49:14 PM
I would think someone who really wishes to show respect for their supporters would wear better than a Work-Out Suit when thanking them for saving their country. Does the man not own a single suit? If he were at the front fighting Russians he should wear whatever he wants. But there weren't any bullets or bombs aimed at him standing in the well of Congress. So what's the problem? Should he also have worn his Kevlar Vest? What about carrying an AK? Or maybe hand grenades? I bet he didn't arrive in a Humvee or eat C- Rations while chatting with Joe. If you are the representative of a whole nation of people fighting for their survival, dress like you'd want them to be seen by the whole world.
This seems to be the most asinine thing to get your panties in a bunch over
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2022, 01:06:20 AM
Slash doesnt get the Pavlichenko effect that he pulled off.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on December 23, 2022, 05:50:21 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on December 22, 2022, 11:49:14 PM
I would think someone who really wishes to show respect for their supporters would wear better than a Work-Out Suit when thanking them for saving their country. Does the man not own a single suit? If he were at the front fighting Russians he should wear whatever he wants. But there weren't any bullets or bombs aimed at him standing in the well of Congress. So what's the problem? Should he also have worn his Kevlar Vest? What about carrying an AK? Or maybe hand grenades? I bet he didn't arrive in a Humvee or eat C- Rations while chatting with Joe. If you are the representative of a whole nation of people fighting for their survival, dress like you'd want them to be seen by the whole world.

A suit and tie is not an indication of respect or respectability.
Putin wears a suit and tie all the time, still is a mass murderer, dictator and pariah.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on December 23, 2022, 07:58:41 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on December 22, 2022, 11:49:14 PM
I would think someone who really wishes to show respect for their supporters would wear better than a Work-Out Suit when thanking them for saving their country. Does the man not own a single suit? If he were at the front fighting Russians he should wear whatever he wants. But there weren't any bullets or bombs aimed at him standing in the well of Congress. So what's the problem? Should he also have worn his Kevlar Vest? What about carrying an AK? Or maybe hand grenades? I bet he didn't arrive in a Humvee or eat C- Rations while chatting with Joe. If you are the representative of a whole nation of people fighting for their survival, dress like you'd want them to be seen by the whole world.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1605646333175422977

Zelensky told me he wouldn't go back to wearing a suit and tie and shaving his beard until Ukrainian victory in the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on December 23, 2022, 11:56:47 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on December 22, 2022, 03:01:26 PM
Quote from: Windigo on December 22, 2022, 01:25:04 PM
Quote from: Gusington on December 22, 2022, 01:07:48 PM
Me too - I noticed how much he has aged in the last year on tv last night. I don't know how he deals with stress like that every single day.

There are reasons why most great wartime leaders drank and smoked.

There was some heated discourse in certain circles about his choice of wardrobe for the speech. For my money, for a leader in midst of a horrific invasion, he was spot on. A visual reminder that only hours before, the man had stepped off of the battlefield at Bakhmut.  Mensch of the Year? Hell Yes!!!!

I noticed that discourse too, it was the same discourse 2 weeks ago, after he was named man of the year, ranting about Zelenzky banning Christian's and keeping Ukraine under martial law when this war is supposed to be about Ukraine democracy.  When you read into the story, none of it was true, but it leaves me scratching my head why members of the right wing want to shit on Zelenzky and Ukraine so much....it's just a bad look politically.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 23, 2022, 12:04:18 PM
Maybe all of Zelensky's suits have been burned up in the ongoing bombardment of Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on December 23, 2022, 12:22:58 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on December 22, 2022, 11:49:14 PM
I would think someone who really wishes to show respect for their supporters would wear better than a Work-Out Suit when thanking them for saving their country. Does the man not own a single suit? If he were at the front fighting Russians he should wear whatever he wants. But there weren't any bullets or bombs aimed at him standing in the well of Congress. So what's the problem? Should he also have worn his Kevlar Vest? What about carrying an AK? Or maybe hand grenades? I bet he didn't arrive in a Humvee or eat C- Rations while chatting with Joe. If you are the representative of a whole nation of people fighting for their survival, dress like you'd want them to be seen by the whole world.

(https://i.redd.it/vwgbeosmmj7a1.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 23, 2022, 12:52:09 PM
Well if Zelensky did promise not to wear a suit until Ukraine won it's war with Russia, that makes more sense. Funny, I've never heard anything of it until this very moment. My panties aren't in a wad, it seems like everyone else's here are. Nobody on the Right is shitting on Zelensky and wondering why and when he will restore Democracy to his country isn't shitting on anything...unless the Left has found a new love now that Fauci has moved-on and cannot tolerate anyone who's not a fanboy. Churchill wore a Jump Suit to the White House, but what did he wear to address Congress and the nation? A hint, it rhymes with 'suit'. In fact it is 'suit'. Now that I have destroyed all of your arguments and ruined your Holidays, my work here is done.

I believe if you are going to visit someone's home, and thank them for sending you a mass of aid that saved your ass, and then ask for more, it's just polite to dress nicely. Send me $ 100 Billion and see what I wear when I come-over. I will even bring a gift.  :peace:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2022, 01:10:24 PM
if I was a member of Congress I would have gone to his speech wearing the same Ukrainian made military sweatshirt as a sign of solidarity.
your boomer generations perspective is the past Slash.  welcome to the 21st century.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 23, 2022, 01:15:05 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2022, 01:10:24 PM
if I was a member of Congress I would have gone to his speech wearing the same Ukrainian made military sweatshirt as a sign of solidarity.
your boomer generations perspective is the past Slash.  welcome to the 21st century.

Interestingly, the sweatshirt is actually made in the United States.  It's made by M-TAC, which is a US clothing company.

Personally, I see both sides of the argument. I don't think its fair to simply state that dress codes and rules of decorum are a "thing of the past" or adhered to only by "boomers". A code of dress is an important and accepted part of acknowledging respect and authority. I make no comment on Zelensky's choice of attire for the occasion, because, personally, I think there are more important issues to focus on.  But in the wider sense, etiquette does and should remain an important part of civilized and ordered society.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 23, 2022, 01:48:58 PM
Etiquette and decorum certainly have their place in maintaining civilization.  But they have also historically been a way of keeping unpleasant truths out of the eyes of the entitled.  So it's a balancing act.  In this case, I'm fine with the way that Zelensky balanced it.

I agree with you that it's not a particularly important topic.  However, that makes it all the more relevant that (in this situation, at least) Slash raised it, and I think it's his raising of it that triggered such a strong response from so many of us. 

To be clear:  While I support the people of Ukraine in their war against Russia, one can't do so blindly.  I 100% agree with that.  If we haven't already learned that lesson with past allies like the Soviet Union in 1945, South Vietnam in 1973, the mujaheddin who morphed into the Taliban after they ousted the Russians from Afghanistan in 1989, or the Afghan warlords who subsequently picked our pockets while doing nothing to oppose the Taliban in 2021, we're even dumber than we think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 23, 2022, 01:54:29 PM
I know that Ukraine isn't perfect. But they are on way higher ground than Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Victor on December 23, 2022, 02:11:00 PM
IIRC not just the not wearing a suit but also not shaving his facial hair off is also something he started doing when things kicked off in Feb. He was always clean shaven before.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: UN Weapons Inspector on December 23, 2022, 02:30:58 PM
I am deeply sorry for not being an frequent poster , truly I am, I wish I could do better. Partially it is out of shame , as English is not my first language. I am regular lurker thought ,and I am really appreciating the information and level of discussion in this forum  ,specially considering that the wargaming and military history are my dear hobbies of the last 40 years.
Saying that, I found the some of discourse here rather disturbing. First , the division between the mythical right and left. Isn't bit outdated by now ? for at least century. Stop it guys, it is useless. I admit it is an convenient  ad hominem strategy, as it allows us to not really address the real  issues. But what about guys like me , I grew up in both communism and capitalism and I am not really enthusiastic about both of them. But to have conversation , or even to be on the fence , I guess , of why the person is not putting his Sunday best  while  by all accounts he  is trying to do his best to defend his people from an existential threat , which in case if  it  is lost in translation means Putin who actively is planning to eradicate the Ukrainian tradition, history and language?  Actually , I suspect he would be equally attacked , by this same people, if he was wearing the suit, the narrative being , among others , as we can never underestimate inventiveness , that he is just some exchangeable carrier politician, caught in the storm and making best of it. But to me, and believe me , as I respect  you right to not to , but this is very real. and how somebody is dressing at this point , it is completely irrelevant to me. By all account , lets discuss what he is saying, and the history will be the judge. And I hate quoting , but this one I would always love by Orwell  "* *Do remember that dishonesty and cowardice always have to be paid for.*Don't imagine that for years on end you can make yourself the boot-licking propagandist of the Soviet régime, or any other régime, and then suddenly return to mental decency. Once a whore, always a whore."   Full disclosure though , bit uncomfortable with language as I always respected, well loved really, my sex workers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on December 23, 2022, 03:25:13 PM
Quote from: UN Weapons Inspector on December 23, 2022, 02:30:58 PM
I am deeply sorry for not being an frequent poster , truly I am, I wish I could do better. Partially it is out of shame , as English is not my first language. I am regular lurker thought ,and I am really appreciating the information and level of discussion in this forum  ,specially considering that the wargaming and military history are my dear hobbies of the last 40 years.

Saying that, I found the some of discourse here rather disturbing.

First , the division between the mythical right and left. Isn't bit outdated by now ? for at least century. I admit it is an convenient  ad hominem strategy, as it allows us to not really address the real  issues. But what about guys like me , I grew up in both communism and capitalism and I am not really enthusiastic about both of them. But to have conversation , or even to be on the fence , I guess , of why the person is not putting his Sunday best  while  by all accounts he  is trying to do his best to defend his people from an existential threat , which in case if  it  is lost in translation means Putin who actively is planning to eradicate the Ukrainian tradition, history and language?  Actually , I suspect he would be equally attacked , by this same people, if he was wearing the suit, the narrative being , among others , as we can never underestimate inventiveness , that he is just some exchangeable carrier politician, caught in the storm and making best of it.

But to me, and believe me , as I respect  you right to not to , but this is very real. and how somebody is dressing at this point , it is completely irrelevant to me. By all account , lets discuss what he is saying, and the history will be the judge. And I hate quoting , but this one I would always love by Orwell 

"* *Do remember that dishonesty and cowardice always have to be paid for.*Don't imagine that for years on end you can make yourself the boot-licking propagandist of the Soviet régime, or any other régime, and then suddenly return to mental decency. Once a whore, always a whore."   

Full disclosure though , bit uncomfortable with language as I always respected, well loved really, my sex workers.

For what it's worth I think your English is fine, though I spaced out your paragraphs a bit more to make it a little easier on the eyes.  I agree with your points especially about the right vs left arguments, I'm not really sure I see how being "right" or "left" factors in here.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on December 23, 2022, 03:28:20 PM
When I addressed congress I was wearing a tank top that said "Sex Mo-chine" and a red speedo.  It was a huge hit. 

Mon Mothma passed 1 trillion space bucks in aid to me and I got a photo op with Chancellor Palpatine. 

Or...wait...maybe that wasn't congress and was my action figure collection and cat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: UN Weapons Inspector on December 23, 2022, 03:50:48 PM
 Thank you. in case of right and left, just this example : @ Nobody on the Right is shitting on Zelensky and wondering why and when he will restore Democracy to his country isn't shitting on anything...unless the Left has found a new love now that Fauci has moved-on and cannot tolerate anyone who's not a fanboy. Churchill wore a Jump Suit to the White House, but what did he wear to address Congress and the nation? A hint, it rhymes with 'suit''
Well  for starters. Im sorry , but for me It is just nonsense. Happy to discus though why it may make sense to somebody.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: UN Weapons Inspector on December 23, 2022, 04:23:01 PM
And to be clear , I completely understand when people want to be cautious about the the judgments. And I think this is the the beauty of the conversations that we can have right now , and here. And it is precious , and  I am very grateful for that. This opportunity was not granted to humanity for , well my best guess, for best of the time. We are so lucky. And saying that , in way I feel more strongly about what's happening . This is it. No one. on so called left , or center, or whatever asking you to stop using your brain.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2022, 05:42:08 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on December 23, 2022, 03:28:20 PM
When I addressed congress I was wearing a tank top that said "Sex Mo-chine" and a red speedo.  It was a huge hit. 
Mon Mothma passed 1 trillion space bucks in aid to me and I got a photo op with Chancellor Palpatine. 
Or...wait...maybe that wasn't congress and was my action figure collection and cat.

virtually no one needed this visual.
so heres a picture of Gus:

(https://greensavers.sapo.pt/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/quokka.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on December 23, 2022, 05:47:56 PM
I've been dead set on making Ukraine a non partisan issue.  But I'm hearing some peanut gallery comments from the right that don't really help the situation and only energize Russian propaganda.

When MacArthy says he's going to limit Ukraine spending when he's speaker, isn't that like playing poker and showing everyone your cards ?

I would agree that there might be limits to where we take the struggle in Ukraine, but keep your cards close to your chest and keep your mouth shut.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2022, 06:01:54 PM
https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/12/how-the-battle-for-the-donbas-shaped-ukraines-success/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 23, 2022, 06:16:16 PM
I am way more adorable and you know it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 23, 2022, 06:50:09 PM
Quote from: Skoop on December 23, 2022, 05:47:56 PM
I've been dead set on making Ukraine a non partisan issue.  But I'm hearing some peanut gallery comments from the right that don't really help the situation and only energize Russian propaganda.

When MacArthy says he's going to limit Ukraine spending when he's speaker, isn't that like playing poker and showing everyone your cards ?

I would agree that there might be limits to where we take the struggle in Ukraine, but keep your cards close to your chest and keep your mouth shut.

Sort of like Biden telling the Taliban the exact date and time of withdrawal from Afghanistan? Let's not go down this road of tit-for-tat. Both sides play to their bases. Neither side acts in the best interests of the country anymore. But this is a discussion for R&P...oh wait....

Back to your regularly scheduled bickering.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2022, 06:52:45 PM
smh
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 23, 2022, 06:59:20 PM
IOTTCO
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: UN Weapons Inspector on December 23, 2022, 07:04:26 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on December 23, 2022, 06:50:09 PM


Sort of like Biden telling the Taliban the exact date and time of withdrawal from Afghanistan? Let's not go down this road of tit-for-tat. Both sides play to their bases. Neither side acts in the best interests of the country anymore. But this is a discussion for R&P...oh wait....

Back to your regularly scheduled bickering.
really curious :quote 'Both sides play to their bases.' (what sides?)  Neither side acts in the best interests of the country anymore.(How we can be so sure?) But this is a discussion for R&P...oh wait.... Tricky line .I thought we are all friends here. I doubt religion is involved here , and  either the politics. Just free exchange of thought, something we should be praying and appreciating of on our knees every day we are alive.

and bickering? i thought this is an forum , with admittedly sometimes adolescent sense of humour.  Still , it does not make it less serious   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 23, 2022, 07:12:07 PM
Quote from: UN Weapons Inspector on December 23, 2022, 07:04:26 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on December 23, 2022, 06:50:09 PM


Sort of like Biden telling the Taliban the exact date and time of withdrawal from Afghanistan? Let's not go down this road of tit-for-tat. Both sides play to their bases. Neither side acts in the best interests of the country anymore. But this is a discussion for R&P...oh wait....

Back to your regularly scheduled bickering.
really curious :quote 'Both sides play to their bases.' (what sides?)  Neither side acts in the best interests of the country anymore.(How we can be so sure?) But this is a discussion for R&P...oh wait.... Tricky line .I thought we are all friends here. I doubt religion is involved here , and  either the politics. Just free exchange of thought, something we should be praying and appreciating of on our knees every day we are alive.

I'm not going to play word games with you. You've been lurking here long enough to know and follow the rules. There is nothing tricky about our policy against inflammatory topics involving religion and politics. it is quite simple with the use of common sense. We're all friends here, as long as you follow the rules.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: UN Weapons Inspector on December 23, 2022, 07:12:57 PM
Ok
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 23, 2022, 07:29:38 PM
On a related and hopefully non-political note, why does Ukraine  insist on giving Russia  detailed damage assessment after missile attacks?   They tell everyone how much power generation capacity is damaged and what parts are urgently needed, etc.  I'd think they would want to keep that between themselves and their supporting countries.

I suppose e everything leaks quickly and they may be playing to the civilian audience.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 23, 2022, 07:45:27 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on December 23, 2022, 07:29:38 PM
On a related and hopefully non-political note, why does Ukraine  insist on giving Russia  detailed damage assessment after missile attacks?   They tell everyone how much power generation capacity is damaged and what parts are urgently needed, etc.  I'd think they would want to keep that between themselves and their supporting countries.

I suppose e everything leaks quickly and they may be playing to the civilian audience.

PR. I think the strategic benefit of divulging such information outweighs the strategic risk/consequence. There could also be some misinformation playing out, as well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on December 23, 2022, 08:36:41 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on December 23, 2022, 06:50:09 PM
Quote from: Skoop on December 23, 2022, 05:47:56 PM
I've been dead set on making Ukraine a non partisan issue.  But I'm hearing some peanut gallery comments from the right that don't really help the situation and only energize Russian propaganda.

When MacArthy says he's going to limit Ukraine spending when he's speaker, isn't that like playing poker and showing everyone your cards ?

I would agree that there might be limits to where we take the struggle in Ukraine, but keep your cards close to your chest and keep your mouth shut.

Sort of like Biden telling the Taliban the exact date and time of withdrawal from Afghanistan? Let's not go down this road of tit-for-tat. Both sides play to their bases. Neither side acts in the best interests of the country anymore. But this is a discussion for R&P...oh wait....

Back to your regularly scheduled bickering.

I'm a conservative, now look how you've all ready labeled me as a pro Biden libtard because I'm a diehard Ukraine advocate see how it's already become partisan.  After Jan 6th and the growing anti Ukraine rhetoric, it has become alarming to me where the Republican Party is going, as this issue should remain non-partisan or bi-partisan.

Oh and I whole heartedly agree with you that Biden's Afghan pull out was a disaster, but Ukraine's not Afghanistan, far more at stake.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 23, 2022, 10:15:26 PM
Quote from: Skoop on December 23, 2022, 08:36:41 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on December 23, 2022, 06:50:09 PM
Quote from: Skoop on December 23, 2022, 05:47:56 PM
I've been dead set on making Ukraine a non partisan issue.  But I'm hearing some peanut gallery comments from the right that don't really help the situation and only energize Russian propaganda.

When MacArthy says he's going to limit Ukraine spending when he's speaker, isn't that like playing poker and showing everyone your cards ?

I would agree that there might be limits to where we take the struggle in Ukraine, but keep your cards close to your chest and keep your mouth shut.

Sort of like Biden telling the Taliban the exact date and time of withdrawal from Afghanistan? Let's not go down this road of tit-for-tat. Both sides play to their bases. Neither side acts in the best interests of the country anymore. But this is a discussion for R&P...oh wait....

Back to your regularly scheduled bickering.

I'm a conservative, now look how you've all ready labeled me as a pro Biden libtard because I'm a diehard Ukraine advocate see how it's already become partisan.  After Jan 6th and the growing anti Ukraine rhetoric, it has become alarming to me where the Republican Party is going, as this issue should remain non-partisan or bi-partisan.

Oh and I whole heartedly agree with you that Biden's Afghan pull out was a disaster, but Ukraine's not Afghanistan, far more at stake.

I did not label you as anything, Skoop. I was just making the point that it is a slippery slope to claim that the "right" or the "left" is guilty of certain conduct. These kinds of accusations go nowhere and do not belong in this forum for now.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on December 24, 2022, 03:32:20 AM
Cool, but you kind of did...read what you wrote.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 24, 2022, 04:52:09 AM
As Putin and his henchmen would love nothing more than seeing the grogs of the world divided, here's a few observations from various articles.

WSJ editorial (https://www.wsj.com/articles/volodymyr-zelensky-goes-to-washington-ukraine-vladimir-putin-russia-war-biden-administration-11671661698) from a couple of days ago made a good point as what was and is at stake:

QuoteIt's worth thinking about what the world would look like today if Mr. Putin had crushed Kyiv within days as he and U.S. intelligence services expected. Russian forces would now control nearly all of Ukraine and man the border of Poland and other frontline NATO states. If an insurgency broke out in Ukraine, Mr. Putin would be blaming those countries for aiding the "terrorists," whether they did or not, and threatening retaliation.

Moldova would have been next to fall to Russia, and one or more of the Baltic states would be in his sights. NATO would be divided over how to respond for fear of Mr. Putin's wrath, and forget about Finland and Sweden joining the alliance as they are currently doing. Germany would be especially conflicted, and all of Western Europe would be more vulnerable to Russia's energy blackmail.

The cost of shoring up NATO, with Russian tanks on its doorstep, would arguably have been even greater in the long run. U.S. credibility also would have suffered another blow, compounding the damage from the Afghanistan retreat. Critics who say helping Ukraine has hurt deterrence against China have it exactly wrong. China's Xi Jinping would have had greater cause to doubt U.S. resolve to defend Taiwan had the U.S. abandoned Ukraine.

Finally, burden sharing (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/). While the US has more than carried her weight on military aid, especially as the "peace dividend" mentality has gone too far with some countries, it is good to see Europe carrying her weight and more on financial aid side of things. Military aid was not so lopsided either to what I feared.

As Putin is doubling down, this will not be over for a while. Divided we fall, si vis pace para bellum, and all that.

Wishing everyone a most Merry Christmas and Happy if solemn New Year
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on December 24, 2022, 06:57:51 AM
A well done, succinct summary from Rob Lee and Michael Kofman. I think they put forth a good argument that Ukraine's victories this past fall in Kherson and Kharkiv were attributed to the Russian losses during the spring and summer battle for the Donbas.

In war ammunition never fails to be the greatest decider. Just like what Zelenskyy has been shouting about from the very beginning.

"Ammunition availability might be the single most important factor that determines the course of the war in 2023, and that will depend on foreign stockpiles and production. As it stands, the Russian military will struggle to restore offensive potential, but it can drag out a stubborn defense. Ukraine appears advantaged long term, but the longer the war goes on, the greater the uncertainty, and advantage is not predictive of outcomes."

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1606412181968502786?t=Q8VsG0Jg7vKgZffiUIZxZA&s=19 (https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1606412181968502786?t=Q8VsG0Jg7vKgZffiUIZxZA&s=19)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 24, 2022, 07:24:52 AM
Quote from: Skoop on December 24, 2022, 03:32:20 AM
Cool, but you kind of did...read what you wrote.

Ummmm...ok. I did. I still don't see it.

I'm sorry you interpreted it that way. I'd be upset if someone accused me of being a liberal too.  :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 24, 2022, 08:22:40 AM
a rather interesting article about the coming year for russia by a russian concerning the problems beyond the front line.

https://en.rattibha.com/thread/1606249858926612485

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FktvHBlaYAA23rR?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 24, 2022, 10:42:55 AM
the latest crop of russian recruitment videos is bleak to say the least.

in one an out of work father joins up to use the money to buy his daughter an iphone.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1604799274264711169

in another the son of a broke family joins up so his parents can afford sausages.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1604888835757842432

in the next a group of out of work veterans join up to make ends meet.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1606037940148113409

join up and avoid debt collectors!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1605314907418886145

see the pattern.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 24, 2022, 10:54:10 AM
One more thing then I'll shut-up. Sorry Sooner, I did NOT raise this issue. Arizona Tank commented quite appropriately that some had criticked Zelensky's dress. I simply stated my opinion that he could have dressed for the occasion better. No bickering.

Bobarossa hit the nail on the head of what I've been thinking about for a while. Putin doesn't need Damage Assessment, all he has to do is tune into any of the Networks and they will tell him what, where, and who he's hit. How much they help the Russkies is for others to figure-out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on December 24, 2022, 10:58:52 AM
Well it's not WW2 where there are spies hunched over a wireless Morse code radio with limited range and mobility
BDA is pretty easy with everyone carrying cellphones with cameras.
Now it's more of flooding the intelligence service with multiple plausible outcomes. Make them guess while building your own narrative for your own propaganda
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 24, 2022, 11:16:33 AM
That's true. But the newsies love to show right where the missiles landed and then give numbers and results often. If I were Zelensky, I would hire my own reporters to show pics of fake holes in the ground dug by kids  standing to an outhouse and say, "They really blew the shit outta this place".  ;D
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 24, 2022, 11:39:32 AM
so what if I told you that the russians hit their own s-300 decoy and then released the footage on state tv as a strike on a Ukrainian AD site.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 24, 2022, 12:32:11 PM
Weapons Inspector, welcome to this forum!  Your insights are specific and solid.  Thank you for sharing.

When someone does not speak a language fluently, nuance and subtle meanings sometimes get lost.  That can make it easier to convey your main idea.  Please post more!

Sir Slash, points taken.  Peace, brother!

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2022, 06:01:54 PM
https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/12/how-the-battle-for-the-donbas-shaped-ukraines-success/

That is a great article, Star.  Nuanced, detailed, and balanced in its perspective.  Thanks for sharing!

Now I'm going to go meditate for 30 minutes while I try to get the image of Sir Andrew out of my mind.

I always thought Gus would be a bit more like this:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Victor on December 24, 2022, 12:52:32 PM
The indepth coverage of the Russian strikes helps the open source intelligence people at least (and the actual intelligence people even more probably). They are speculating on various blogs about Russian missile production capabilities by comparing serial & lot numbers of missile pieces.

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2022/12/estimating-russias-kh-101-production-capacity.php

QuoteData from downed Kh-101s — some of them found through open-source research, others documented by the Conflict Armament Research group (CAR) — shed some light. The data suggest that although Russia is likely running low on missiles and expending them at an unsustainable rate, production of Kh-101s and perhaps other missiles not only continues but is probably greater than some analysts believed. What is more, Russia may now be producing more Kh-101s per day than it was before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These findings underscore that while Western export controls pose significant challenges for Russia's defense industrial base, it is too early for the West to take a victory lap.

Makes that US aid all the more urgent if true!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 24, 2022, 12:59:08 PM
russian army recruiting at the mall....  ::)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1606704293205131264
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 24, 2022, 03:55:15 PM
Thank you FarAway. Closer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on December 24, 2022, 05:52:39 PM
Welcome UN Weapons Inspector.  I like what you say.

Peace be with you brother. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on December 24, 2022, 09:35:34 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on December 24, 2022, 12:32:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2022, 06:01:54 PM
https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/12/how-the-battle-for-the-donbas-shaped-ukraines-success/

That is a great article, Star.  Nuanced, detailed, and balanced in its perspective.  Thanks for sharing!

Now I'm going to go meditate for 30 minutes while I try to get the image of Sir Andrew out of my mind.

Oh crap I overlooked the fact that Star already posted the article from Rob Lee and Michael Kofman. My bad.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 24, 2022, 10:12:15 PM
the Ukrainian entry for Miss Universe:  :smitten:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkwlfoDXwAI2Dxn?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on December 25, 2022, 08:11:39 AM
^ To avoid being judged as biased, here is the Russian participant :

(https://i0.wp.com/www.twobuttonsdeep.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/screen-shot-2017-06-07-at-4-26-24-pm.png?resize=792%2C675&ssl=1)


But my vote goes to Ukraine (Victoria Apanasenko) :dreamer:  :notworthy:

(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiq2XLXkmolg2lCBDbTrkCvf0eVWE_BJx8coY1Bu_HNV0Lc6Ro5jfJK_QOifGO8wjhUP4hQYDlUThU4y6QOl5toym_x4wi1--Wrdkqruo8FrhGNa9QkNClE6DEJrBeTlPNrEigBbZMnl0IaGBMqaxwtxt0-zl1qzaq0oYmPIvqMDxEbV-xscNi97yfs/s1350/Miss%20Universe%20Ukraine%202022%20is%20Viktoria%20Apanasenko.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 25, 2022, 08:29:30 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on December 25, 2022, 08:11:39 AM
^ To avoid being judged as biased, here is the Russian participant :

(https://i0.wp.com/www.twobuttonsdeep.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/screen-shot-2017-06-07-at-4-26-24-pm.png?resize=792%2C675&ssl=1)


I'd hit it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on December 25, 2022, 08:34:48 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on December 25, 2022, 08:29:30 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on December 25, 2022, 08:11:39 AM
^ To avoid being judged as biased, here is the Russian participant :

(https://i0.wp.com/www.twobuttonsdeep.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/screen-shot-2017-06-07-at-4-26-24-pm.png?resize=792%2C675&ssl=1)


I'd hit it.

Sure, but you are a trained shooter.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 25, 2022, 08:53:58 AM
^not exactly where I was going with that.  :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 25, 2022, 11:37:38 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on December 25, 2022, 08:34:48 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on December 25, 2022, 08:29:30 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on December 25, 2022, 08:11:39 AM
^ To avoid being judged as biased, here is the Russian participant :

(https://i0.wp.com/www.twobuttonsdeep.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/screen-shot-2017-06-07-at-4-26-24-pm.png?resize=792%2C675&ssl=1)


I'd hit it.

Sure, but you are a trained shooter.

There are those who says we must allow him to save his face so maybe aim in the chest?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 25, 2022, 11:45:04 AM
Interesting article on a possible area of Russian competence...Electronic Warfare (EW) against drones. The source of this article (Forbes) has been pretty pro-Ukraine, so this is not an idle Russian fan-boy rant.

As a very old cold warrior, and S-2 wannabe, who studied Soviet Army TO&Es till I was sick of them, I remember that EW was a big emphasis for the Soviets. So I was surprised to see what looked like so many missteps early in the war. In the early part of the war, it seemed like the Russians had completely let their EW capability waste away. The article somewhat explains why it appeared that way.

Anyway, the article has some interesting thoughts and observations. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-electronic-warfare-troops-knocked-out-90-percent-of-ukraine-s-drones/ar-AA15DrRb?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7a60717760934de385c3a60a10ca3a2e (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-electronic-warfare-troops-knocked-out-90-percent-of-ukraine-s-drones/ar-AA15DrRb?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7a60717760934de385c3a60a10ca3a2e)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 26, 2022, 12:22:12 AM
 :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 26, 2022, 02:02:47 PM
Ward Carroll on Wagner...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 27, 2022, 02:19:27 AM
The former PM and president Medvedev with a rather dim view on 2023:

https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1607487338401206273

US and EU civil wars, stock markets defaulting and moving to Asia, oil and gas price sky rocketing. And that's just the beginning.

All this after his fuehrer launches his next operation called Wacht am Dnepr. <-This last tweet didn't load for me but it must've been there. <:-)

QuoteSeason greetings to you all, Anglo-Saxon friends, and their happily oinking piglets!

Season's Greetings to you too, Dim One, may you freeze in russian hell (as the old Soviet joke says).

They are truly spiralling towards madness, this messaging is for their own citizen of course  :(
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 27, 2022, 10:27:11 AM
More Ward Carroll on Wagner efforts to recruit criminals...very inspiring.  :buck2:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 27, 2022, 12:31:02 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fk_8jWdWYAUMH3-?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 27, 2022, 03:25:52 PM
find all the Migs.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fk_CfZBWAAABw8P?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 27, 2022, 04:13:51 PM
russian team building exercises...  ::)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1607794376503091206
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 27, 2022, 04:39:04 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fk_8YxLWIAUdPlQ?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 28, 2022, 08:53:33 AM
I only found one MiG (aside from whatever's being flown): camo worked well!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 28, 2022, 09:02:08 AM
If I didn't know better I would say that soldier hangin' loose in Ukraine was Star.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on December 28, 2022, 10:54:39 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlAAbhhacAE3W6t?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 28, 2022, 11:15:02 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 27, 2022, 04:13:51 PM
russian team building exercises...  ::)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1607794376503091206

Next up - Roman style decimation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(punishment) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(punishment))
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on December 28, 2022, 11:33:31 AM
Good Summary of the War looking into next year by Michael Koffman
https://ridl.io/the-russo-ukrainian-war-ten-months-in-taking-stock/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 29, 2022, 03:00:20 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlG7xiiaYAEL5aW?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 29, 2022, 09:05:45 AM
good shoot down of a russian cruise missile.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1608386850225266694
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 29, 2022, 12:09:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 29, 2022, 09:05:45 AM
good shoot down of a russian cruise missile.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1608386850225266694
Looks like the guy filming forgot that it's a bad idea to stand near the launcher.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 30, 2022, 02:28:33 AM
opinions?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/12/26/ukraine-converts-219-billion-in-us-military-surplus-into-fearsome-force/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on December 30, 2022, 09:04:45 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 30, 2022, 02:28:33 AM
opinions?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/12/26/ukraine-converts-219-billion-in-us-military-surplus-into-fearsome-force/
I think the biggest change is the upgrading of the US manufacturing base.  Having multiple lines with improved capital is an amazing enabler.  As someone who has knowledge of building factories for biomanufacturing I cant emphasize how much efficiency improvements you can get with adding in concepts like Lean Sigma, Quality by Design, Internet of Things and AI manufacturing templates.  These are revolutionary new manufacturing technologies that improve efficiency, capabilities and cost by exponential amounts.  They are capital intensive and expensive to implement and only done if the environment is right which it was not with US focus on weapons development and not manufacturing.  This is a hidden benefit that will pay dividend for US defense for the next 30 years.

Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 30, 2022, 10:14:04 AM
Wars have to have pinups...

Victoria Apanasenko, Miss Ukraine wearing her 2022 "national costume"; "The Warrior of Light"

https://www.glam.com/1147118/miss-ukraine-makes-powerful-fashion-statement-amid-nations-ongoing-conflict-with-russia/ (https://www.glam.com/1147118/miss-ukraine-makes-powerful-fashion-statement-amid-nations-ongoing-conflict-with-russia/)

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/hvqDrbryfQ5s1KzInuMoK-CgIoYt9PguIJMxUy48xDKKQlDhjoO5263KSegNywwtog7iHD8AXcLpnDy4rdTRZYmkysET_397QPJHIWA49r0VhPjmcJP9ICfkq0tYCj_Db8RHgGqedg=w2400)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 30, 2022, 10:28:43 AM
cough cough   :P

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 24, 2022, 10:12:15 PM
the Ukrainian entry for Miss Universe:  :smitten:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkwlfoDXwAI2Dxn?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 30, 2022, 11:09:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 30, 2022, 02:28:33 AM
opinions?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/12/26/ukraine-converts-219-billion-in-us-military-surplus-into-fearsome-force/

Thanks, that was a good read. I don't see the need to compare military aid to Ukraine to new CVs but that was a good summary how much of the military aid sent is from existing stocks, with most Western countries not just US willingly contributing from the ageing stock in particular.

While first Javelins and NLAWS then the mighty HIMARS o'clock, now NASAMS, PATRIOT gets everyone's attention, there's the ongoing effort to find existing former Soviet Union stock too.

Like the 90 or so upgraded Moroccan T-72s allegedly being sent to Ukraine (https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2022/12/17/morocco-is-the-first-african-country-to-donate-t-72-tanks-to-ukraine/) next. Hope that works out.

In related news, there was a good article on WaPo reminding all trophies are not quite what they seem (https://wapo.st/3G43WtC), as a lot of gear russians left behind they did so for a reason. So maybe the captured tanks number 500+ for now (https://wapo.st/3G43WtC), but that does not mean they all are in running order.

I've seen a lot of M113 variants etc in good use, and Ukrainians have shown what ever they get they put into good use. Sadly, I've seen at least three Finnish XA-185 APCs given their everything to war effort, hopefully we send two more for each destroyed. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on December 30, 2022, 11:27:32 AM
Reminded me of the Nazis in WW2 that were trying to mechanise themselves by using other countries equipment. A logistical nightmare.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on December 30, 2022, 11:38:09 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 30, 2022, 02:28:33 AM
opinions?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/12/26/ukraine-converts-219-billion-in-us-military-surplus-into-fearsome-force/

219 billion would indeed be fearsome.  I blame the internet.  I don't know.  I wonder about some interrelated things sort of at this point:
1) Wouldn't it have been better to make it clear long ago somehow that Russia wasn't going to continue to have a free hand in attacking its neighbors?
2) This all just seems like the worst possible scenario for Russia -- sucked into an endless war against major industrial powers with combined economies at least 30 or 40 times
that of Russia
3) and yet (possibly even worse for the Russians), the Ukrainian build-up is just slow enough for the Russians to keep thinking they have some kind of chance at getting whatever it is that they
want (which except for a nice little bit of genocide has never been clear).
4) and even worse (maybe), despite being economically down 30 or 40 times versus the powers backing Ukraine, the Russians keep getting glimmers of hope like drones from Iran.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 30, 2022, 12:06:54 PM
$219 Billion? I read the article as saying it was, '$21.9 Billion'. Somebody's math is fuzzy.  ???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on December 30, 2022, 12:07:38 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on December 30, 2022, 12:06:54 PM
$219 Billion? I read the article as saying it was, '$21.9 Billion'. Somebody's math is fuzzy.  ???

I was looking at the link
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on December 30, 2022, 12:14:46 PM
Not aimed at you Ming. Peace Brother.  :peace: Just wondering about the numbers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 30, 2022, 01:15:14 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 30, 2022, 02:28:33 AM
opinions?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/12/26/ukraine-converts-219-billion-in-us-military-surplus-into-fearsome-force/

It's a good article.  It's as useful to the US military for providing lessons in modern, high-intensity warfare as anything else.  One of the primary learnings is that artillery is still queen, which makes disposables--in the form of ammunition AND low-cost spotting drones that only last 3 to 6 times more missions than an artillery shell--and the continued ability to supply them very important.

Ukraine is also a good signal to the US that nobody's really talking about:  Picking reliable allies matters.  That's not a lesson the US has learned well in other ground wars in the last 50 years (Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan all come to mind).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 30, 2022, 02:40:29 PM
Id say that our allies in Iraq and Afghanistan were are are very solid on the international level.
the locals were what sucked.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 30, 2022, 07:20:18 PM
Yes.  Our allies from outside the country were pretty good.  As good as one should reasonably hope for in a situation like that.

But the allies that matter the most are the ones you hope to leave to themselves to run their own country someday.  THOSE are the allies who form the foundation of almost anything else you're trying to do, unless your goal is just to kill "the enemy".  In that sense, our arming of the Taliban was a smashing success!   <:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 30, 2022, 07:31:57 PM
 :o  12 minutes of CQB

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on December 31, 2022, 12:24:49 PM
Pretty good clip, any idea what part of the front or how recent that is ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 31, 2022, 01:04:40 PM
I think in from mid November somewhere in the Donbass.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on December 31, 2022, 02:38:31 PM
https://twitter.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/status/1609178660937818115

Putin is so afraid of meeting real people that he invites actors and figureheads for his photo shoots.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FicawOOXgAEuU4C?format=jpg&name=900x900)  (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlT-GS8XwAQVvtu?format=jpg&name=small) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlT2pgrWYAAmn_D?format=jpg&name=large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlTzdpnWQAEySAy?format=jpg&name=small) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlTzde8XwAIPsMP?format=jpg&name=small) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlT-GeHXwAAFsTA?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on December 31, 2022, 03:00:27 PM
Poorly disguised body guard detail? Each one with a special deadly skill?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on December 31, 2022, 03:26:52 PM
They are highly trained in Defenestration

Quote from: Staggerwing on December 31, 2022, 03:00:27 PM
Poorly disguised body guard detail? Each one with a special deadly skill?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on December 31, 2022, 04:19:52 PM
Quote from: Con on December 31, 2022, 03:26:52 PM
They are highly trained in Defenestration

And chemically cardioverting a pesky normal sinus rhythm.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 31, 2022, 09:01:08 PM
it the closing hours of 2022 a new turret toss champion crosses the line.
Happy New Year!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1609297245131739136
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 01, 2023, 02:51:29 AM
Happy New Year, Grogs! Keep your feet dry and support Ukraine  :hug: <:-)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/amplify_video_thumb/1609338175935205376/img/MHgKq6kAGC9UJJbt?format=jpg&name=medium)

https://twitter.com/Official_NAFO/status/1609338254012354561
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on January 01, 2023, 02:26:55 PM
Interview with returned Brit from Ukraine

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 02, 2023, 08:48:20 AM
Happy New Year wishes from Ukraine to Russia:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64142650
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 02, 2023, 11:50:42 AM
I guess over there, a card just doesn't cut it.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 02, 2023, 12:07:45 PM
I like how they struck when they knew all those shits would be stuck watching putins shitty New Years show.
fuck them.  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: UN Weapons Inspector on January 02, 2023, 01:06:27 PM
Every Human life wasted , every human death is an tragedy. Obviously the discussion would go  beyond that simple sentence, but in my humble opinion that would be good start.
Saying that , it must be tough for Russians to realize they may be loosing the war of attrition , traditionally one part of warfare they were very good at. The mobile part , they tried but it seems it is gone now , unless there would be some attempt at gambit by trying to attack Kiev and west part of Ukraine from Belorussia at this same time. It is fascinating in the way , as seems that perceived capability to mobilize , dress , feed and arm the population was what the Putin  based his plan/hope/delusion to bring Ukraine back to to the Fatherland. Historically it seems to work only when Russia is invaded, so maybe that's where all the rhetoric of being threatened is coming from.
Weird and sad times.
Thanks for all kind words , and I wish you  all ,hopefully , a happy new year.
   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: UN Weapons Inspector on January 02, 2023, 01:22:38 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/02/ukraine-strike-russian-held-makiivka-reportedly-kills-troops (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/02/ukraine-strike-russian-held-makiivka-reportedly-kills-troops) And recriminations starting already
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 02, 2023, 07:36:21 PM
I think that the recriminations serve a strategically important aim for the pro-Russian bloggers:  They deflect any attention (or accountability) away from Putin.  They might seem like they have freedom of speech, but I'd be pretty surprised if any of those "outspoken" commentators are able to blame the Bare Chested One personally.  For those who follow these things closer than I do, I'd be curious to hear if that's the case.

I think it's erroneous to believe that Russia losing more troops causes their leadership many problems.  My guess is that many of us in on the other side of the conflict regret that loss of life more than the Russian leadership does. 

In the greatest victory in Russian military history, WW2, the Soviets sustained twice as many military deaths as the Germans (at least 8,000,000 soldiers).  That doesn't include at least another 11,000,000 Russian civilians who died.   Russia 2022 may or may not be Russia 1942, but the notion that Russia is losing a war of attrition because they're sustaining more casualties suggests that they care about casualties.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 02, 2023, 09:21:05 PM
such lovely people.  ::)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 03, 2023, 07:04:42 AM
 ???

https://twitter.com/georgian_legion/status/1610203602471079938

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FliXo-HXkAE7xZI?format=jpg&name=small)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on January 03, 2023, 09:31:19 AM
Looks like they did it again :

In the Kherson region (in southern Ukraine), the Ukrainian army says it has again inflicted heavy casualties on Russian troops with an artillery attack. Near the village of Chulakivka, enemy troops and military equipment are said to have been hit, the Ukrainian General Staff reports.
Enemy losses amount to 500 dead and wounded. The attack is said to have taken place on New Year's Eve. However, the information has not yet been independently verified.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian units in the village of Fedorivka were also hit a day later. How many victims would have fallen there has not been disclosed.

Source : Belga
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 03, 2023, 11:38:56 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on December 25, 2022, 08:29:30 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on December 25, 2022, 08:11:39 AM
^ To avoid being judged as biased, here is the Russian participant :

(https://i0.wp.com/www.twobuttonsdeep.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/screen-shot-2017-06-07-at-4-26-24-pm.png?resize=792%2C675&ssl=1)


I'd hit it.

...with?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 03, 2023, 11:51:15 AM
A shovel.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 03, 2023, 11:57:06 AM
Not even if it was my last night before doing 5 to 10 in solitary. Or, my first day out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 03, 2023, 02:50:15 PM
Another big loser in the Ukraine war...France?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 03, 2023, 03:16:21 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on January 03, 2023, 11:57:06 AM
Not even if it was my last night before doing 5 to 10 in solitary. Or, my first day out.
I'm pretty sure that's why you use two grocery bags.  Although with the plastic grocery bags, you'll have to be quick.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 03, 2023, 03:29:49 PM
Realistically, (almost) any port in a storm. Just please have teeth....  :DD
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 03, 2023, 04:27:51 PM
Gepards in action of Kiev  :bd:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1610326116757114880
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 03, 2023, 04:53:20 PM
what is this evasion technique called?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1610374708498776064
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 03, 2023, 06:27:56 PM
a good piece from Mick Ryan about Zelensky's speeches.

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-speeches
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 04, 2023, 10:56:05 AM
Prigozhin (head of the Wagner Group), complains in an interview re-posted in the Moscow Times that city fighting is so hard...who knew?

Russian troops attacking the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut are bogged down because of a tenacious Ukrainian resistance and an extensive network of defensive fortifications, the head of Russia's mercenary company Wagner said Tuesday.

There is a "fortress in every house" in Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an interview with state news agency RIA Novosti.

"The lads are fighting over every house, sometimes for more than a day. Sometimes it takes them weeks to capture a house. They take one house, they take another."
....

Prigozhin offered little reassurance that Bakhmut could be seized any time soon.

"They took one house this morning and broke through the defenses. But behind that house were new defensive lines — and not just one," he told RIA Novosti.

"And how many such defensive lines are there in Artemovsk [Bakhmut]? If we say 500 we probably won't be making a mistake. Every 10 meters there is a defensive line," he said.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-mercenary-chief-complains-it-takes-weeks-to-capture-a-house-in-ukraine/ar-AA15VQ4V?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b8ddf2623e034cc292ec1d97b781f39a (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-mercenary-chief-complains-it-takes-weeks-to-capture-a-house-in-ukraine/ar-AA15VQ4V?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b8ddf2623e034cc292ec1d97b781f39a)

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/03/russia-making-slow-progress-in-fortress-bakhmut-wagner-boss-prigozhin-a79866 (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/03/russia-making-slow-progress-in-fortress-bakhmut-wagner-boss-prigozhin-a79866)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 04, 2023, 11:22:21 AM
Uh Oh. Looks like SOME ONE's not getting a raise this year.  #:-)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 04, 2023, 12:04:26 PM
Maybe a raise up to the 50th floor of a skyscraper with an open window.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 04, 2023, 03:05:03 PM
I would NOT want to be his Food Taster.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 05, 2023, 02:46:58 AM
"France to send tanks *) to Ukraine."  :hide:

QuoteJust realised that this lovely chart is suddenly newsworthy.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlqI-4QWAAAQzpr?format=jpg&name=medium)

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1610750511485190144


*) AMX-10 RCs that is.

Edit: also  ;D

QuoteLet's put our differences aside and all agree to call this thing a tank - at least in front of any senior SPD politicians

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/1610742064337289217

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 05, 2023, 06:33:41 AM
 :nerd:

QuoteSo to summarise, there are tanks that are tanks and there are tanks that are not tanks, and some tanks are tanks according to an official document and some tanks are not tanks according to the annex of that document and another document says no one knows what a tank is anyway.

https://twitter.com/RikeFranke/status/1610959069887582208
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 05, 2023, 06:42:42 AM
Heh 'Toyota Land Cruiser is a tank'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 05, 2023, 09:10:41 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 05, 2023, 06:42:42 AM
Heh 'Toyota Land Cruiser is a tank'

There was another meme that listed a 1980s Volvo SW as a tank. Can't argue with that!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 05, 2023, 10:16:27 AM
^I can vouch for the Volvos. I would like to have a Land Cruiser one day...not necessarily a technical but I won't rule anything out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 05, 2023, 11:00:40 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 05, 2023, 10:16:27 AM
^I can vouch for the Volvos. I would like to have a Land Cruiser one day...not necessarily a technical but I won't rule anything out.

My vote is for Skoda pickups.

The lineage is there. Skoda built Jagdpanzer 38s (Hetzers) during the WW2.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 05, 2023, 11:32:24 AM
I dont think the Ukraine is going to care very much about putins christmas cease fire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 05, 2023, 11:43:33 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 05, 2023, 11:32:24 AM
I dont think the Ukraine is going to care very much about putins christmas cease fire.

I don't think so either. But I am sure Putin will make some domestic propaganda points out of it when the Ukrainians keep fighting. That will play well with his domestic hard-liners.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 05, 2023, 11:52:29 AM
Russian criminals, pardoned after fighting in Ukraine for the Wagner Group, are now being released back to Russia.

What could go wrong?

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-anger-wagner-group-prisoners-pardoned-prigozhin-1771477 (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-anger-wagner-group-prisoners-pardoned-prigozhin-1771477)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 05, 2023, 12:44:17 PM
This is shocking and stunning. Russians are allowed to give their opinions?  :o
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 05, 2023, 01:05:04 PM
No, only the prisoners...which is almost the entire country.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 05, 2023, 02:16:10 PM
Lots of speculation at the moment following France's decision to send AMX-10 RC "tanks" to Ukraine, and with US to send (?) Bradleys, Germany would finally allow Marders to Ukraine, too. Here's hoping.

In other news, now I am really curious as how would one categorise an AMX-10 RC. RC apparently stands for "wheeled gun". Why not. A bit like a Volvo with a main gun, then.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 05, 2023, 02:20:13 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 05, 2023, 01:05:04 PM
No, only the prisoners...which is almost the entire country.

Well, Prigozhin was seen in a video giving the newly pardoned men some good life advice  ::)

"Don't drink too much, don't take drugs, don't rape women."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/05/world/europe/russia-pardon-prisoners-ukraine-wagner.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/05/world/europe/russia-pardon-prisoners-ukraine-wagner.html)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 05, 2023, 02:37:12 PM
It's happening  :clap:

QuotePresident Biden and Chancellor Scholz expressed their common determination to continue to provide the necessary financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine for as long as needed. To this end, the United States intends to supply Ukraine with Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, and Germany intends to provide Ukraine with Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles. Both countries plan to train Ukrainian forces on the respective systems.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/01/05/joint-press-statement-following-a-call-between-the-president-joe-biden-and-the-chancellor-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-olaf-scholz/


Edit Germany's sending a PATRIOT system as well!

QuoteIn light of Russia's ongoing missile and drone attacks against Ukraine's critical infrastructure, President Biden and Chancellor Scholz affirmed their intention to further support Ukraine's urgent requirement for air defense capabilities. In late December, the United States announced its donation of a Patriot air defense missile battery to Ukraine. Germany will join the United States in supplying an additional Patriot air defense battery to Ukraine.


What's next? #FreeTheLeopards

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fk0vvwPXgAEarjP?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 05, 2023, 03:13:42 PM
Im hearing that the initial batch of Bradleys will be 50.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 05, 2023, 05:22:54 PM
and Germany is sending Marders and another Patriot battery.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 05, 2023, 06:27:24 PM
I'm sure that the Ukrainians will take whatever weapons they can get, but I do wonder if this hodgepodge of different equipment types won't end up creating as many logistical problems as it solves battlefield problems? 

Sending more and more Patriots  makes sense, but I suspect that they'll be more useful in keeping Russian air assets further back from the front lines.  Unless the Pentagon has signed off on consistently shooting $4,000,000 missiles at $20,000 Shahed drones? 

I'd love to see a news story about some Western country sending the Ukrainians 40,000 artillery spotting drones costing $2,000 apiece.  In this war, we're learning once again that quantity has a quality all its own...

I wonder whether the non-Toyota IFVs that we're sending over will work better on offense or defense?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 05, 2023, 08:09:28 PM
the Patriots are for theater defense.  Ukraine is also getting a land based Sea Sparrow variant that will be the medium range system along with others.  Im also no to worried right now about the logistics of all this stuff as the US and NATO are running that part of the show out of theater.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 05, 2023, 08:55:07 PM
What would it take for Germany to send Leopards?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 05, 2023, 10:33:04 PM
about another two months.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on January 06, 2023, 07:34:47 AM
We are getting close to the one year anniversary. I don't think anyone expected Ukraine's resistance and resolve.

Including the Russians!  ;D

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on January 06, 2023, 07:48:00 AM
Especially the Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 06, 2023, 09:57:21 AM
What's that classic quote from the Ukrainian soldier over the summer...'We'd be in real trouble if the Russians weren't so f*cking stupid.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 06, 2023, 11:09:01 AM
Stalin's moustache would fall off if he could see them now. Followed by the sound of rolling heads.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 06, 2023, 11:19:07 AM
Those who do not study history are doomed to continue discovering that house-to-house fighting against Russianesque defenders is like hell.

Meanwhile, when it comes to the tank classification grid, Norway has preparations!

Bonus points for orchestral HALO theme.



"Pinned by Katasulu
Katasulu
3 days ago (edited)
For all of those telling me it's an ifv and not a tank: infantry fighting vehicles can be considered light tanks depending on the military regime they reside under. [...] Even the official Norwegian page describes it as a "Medium weight tank" (mellomtungt stridskøyretøy)."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 06, 2023, 11:57:06 AM
^Is that a Toyota Land Cruiser pickup?? Hahaha
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 06, 2023, 12:41:10 PM
 :timeout:

Gus, if there's one thing we've learned from this thread, it's that we have to be specific in our language.  If it carries a fixed weapon of any sort (apparently including a snap-on LMG), it's a pick-up tank as opposed to a pick-up truck.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on January 06, 2023, 12:47:58 PM
And this is a pick-up van:


(https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_1080,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape%2Fcover%2Fsport%2F650736-valentinapowers-3023942316-8260635964-o-flickr-271e9f7735e2a86803a349dafa29f278.jpg)



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 06, 2023, 12:53:09 PM
QuoteThose who do not study history are doomed to continue discovering that house-to-house fighting against Russianesque defenders is like hell.

going by all the shit theyve lost so far I wouldnt be surprised to see some ISU-152s show up.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 06, 2023, 02:21:56 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 06, 2023, 11:57:06 AM
^Is that a Toyota Land Cruiser pickup?? Hahaha

I wondered who would notice!

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 06, 2023, 12:41:10 PM
:timeout:

Gus, if there's one thing we've learned from this thread, it's that we have to be specific in our language.  If it carries a fixed weapon of any sort (apparently including a snap-on LMG), it's a pick-up tank as opposed to a pick-up truck.

Pretty sure that truck had zero fixed weapons of any sort. So... it's an infantry fighting truck. Wait no, a pick-up personnel carrier.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 06, 2023, 02:46:10 PM
Sorry, when I say the weapons are "fixed", I just mean "mechanically attached" (as opposed to attached using duct tape or Super Glue).  "Affixed" might have been a more appropriate term.  Using that logic, it only takes one screw or bolt affixing the MG to the bed of the Toyota to render it a Pick-Up Tank.

I get why we haven't yet sent our most modern heavy MBTs to Ukraine, but I'm a little surprised that this is the first time we've sent them anything that could be confused with a tank.  I disagree with the decision to not sending longer-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for fear of provoking a Russian nuclear response, but it seems bizarre to me that sending anything heavier than a Humvee was viewed as a major escalation in a conventional military conflict.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 07, 2023, 01:44:03 PM
Lawrence Freedman with a new article. A solid read, again.

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/makiiva-and-bakhmut-the-impact-of?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on January 07, 2023, 02:53:27 PM
For Russian Christmas Putin went to church with everybody who loves him.

(https://lithuania.postsen.com/content/uploads/2023/01/07/e57dc9da25.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 07, 2023, 03:55:07 PM
elmo made some dumbass remarks about tanks today and twitter is having a field day with it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 07, 2023, 04:32:37 PM
how not to assault a position.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fl4Y0DVWYAEfwOe?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on January 07, 2023, 05:10:02 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 07, 2023, 03:55:07 PM
elmo made some dumbass remarks about tanks today and twitter is having a field day with it.
Best quote I read is that he has first hand experience of tanking.  Twitter stock that is

In the other hand Phillip OBrien who I think does a really good job in macro approach to war is somewhat in agreement with Elon on tanks and their capabilities under inadequate air superiority on each side.

Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 07, 2023, 10:25:01 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on January 07, 2023, 01:44:03 PM
Lawrence Freedman with a new article. A solid read, again.

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/makiiva-and-bakhmut-the-impact-of?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Excellent article, Crossroads.  I wish anything about the Russian conduct of this war were more predictable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 08, 2023, 09:43:59 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 07, 2023, 10:25:01 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on January 07, 2023, 01:44:03 PM
Lawrence Freedman with a new article. A solid read, again.

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/makiiva-and-bakhmut-the-impact-of?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Excellent article, Crossroads.  I wish anything about the Russian conduct of this war were more predictable.

I just read agin his articles from the beginning of Russian invasion. Already on March 3 he called this a war Russia can't win, with their plans A and B exhausted.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 10, 2023, 04:21:17 PM
Poland to become 'The Greatest Military Power East of France'?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on January 10, 2023, 05:21:09 PM
I got to say I'm quite happy with a powerful Poland.  Why wait around for nato when you can just smash your enemies yourself.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 10, 2023, 08:31:33 PM
^One fly in the ointment of a powerful Poland is their declining population...they need people to operate all the hardware they're building and buying.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 10, 2023, 10:52:13 PM
rewatching The Death of Stalin for the giggles.  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 11, 2023, 08:11:40 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2023, 08:31:33 PM
^One fly in the ointment of a powerful Poland is their declining population...they need people to operate all the hardware they're building and buying.

Sounds like they had better start re-promoting their strong Jewish and Catholic roots!  O0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 11, 2023, 08:15:04 AM
Meanwhile, W8 will probably like this news!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/another-country-putin-thought-was-his-friend-has-snubbed-russia-by-refusing-to-host-its-military-for-routine-exercises/ar-AA16drOT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=866304bd330740ada8b5a3774d1e3080

Armenia says, "Look, if you're going to abandon us against the Az, you can just take your cough 'wargames' elsewhere this year."  :knuppel2:

More literally,

Quote"Russia's military presence in Armenia not only fails to guarantee its security, but it raises security threats for Armenia," Pashinyan added, according to AP.

The Armenian leader also criticized Russian peacekeepers' failure to take a more active role around the disputed separatist region of Nagorno-Karabak, saying that he will seek support from the US and the European Union to help ease the tensions with Azerbaijan.

We may need to start a Mid-Asiatic Treaty Organization.  :coolsmiley:

The original and somewhat more detailed Associated Press article: https://apnews.com/article/politics-moscow-armenia-yerevan-russia-government-68470e08f2462c67920fdb554644bba3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 11, 2023, 09:18:41 AM
Armenia trying to take advantage of 'Russian peacekeepers' being needed...'elsewhere'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on January 11, 2023, 09:45:31 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 10, 2023, 10:52:13 PM
rewatching The Death of Stalin for the giggles.  :2funny:
That is a good movie, for those who haven't seen it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on January 11, 2023, 11:24:11 AM
Interesting article Jason.  Thanks for sharing.  I haven't really been keeping up with Armenian news because the whole thing stinks to me. 

The normal dynamic of Russia keeping Turkey and Azerbaijan at bay in order to protect Armenia is no longer the case anymore.  Turkey and Russia need that Azeri oil to flow through the area and Armenia is in the way.  On top of that the current Armenian president is a world class piece of human excrement.  A total fiend and traitor.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 11, 2023, 11:26:09 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on January 11, 2023, 11:24:11 AM
Interesting article Jason.  Thanks for sharing.  I haven't really been keeping up with Armenian news because the whole thing stinks to me. 

The normal dynamic of Russia keeping Turkey and Azerbaijan at bay in order to protect Armenia is no longer the case anymore.  Turkey and Russia need that Azeri oil to flow through the area and Armenia is in the way.  On top of that the current Armenian president is a world class piece of human excrement.  A total fiend and traitor.

power corrupts... money (especially oil money) corrupts
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 12, 2023, 08:25:12 AM
General Armageddon gets demoted?!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-demoted-the-absolutely-ruthless-general-who-has-been-leading-the-war-in-ukraine-less-than-3-months-after-promoting-him/ar-AA16dXPU?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=325f4b398fd34ee6c59c82c4ec0e45af

QuoteRob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based think tank, likewise said on Twitter that the reshuffle of Russia's war leadership "appears to be a quite significant change," possibly driven more by politics than any perceived failure on the part of Surovkin. The general was "becoming very powerful," Lee wrote, and "likely" talking directly to Putin. Demoting him "reasserts the [Ministry of Defense's] position overseeing the war."

Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at Britain's Royal United Services Institute, argued that Wednesday's move was actually a demotion for Gerasimov too, "or at least the most poisoned of chalices." The general, he wrote on Twitter, will need to show "some kind of win or [his] career ends in ignominy" — and that could mean a big Russian offensive in the spring.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 12, 2023, 10:50:12 AM
A demotion is better than an office with a view...and faulty window safety equipment.  :hide:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 12, 2023, 10:54:47 AM
Leopard IIs going to Ukraine from Poland. I am a little jaded since we have seen similar promises with aircraft that never made it. Hopefully these tanks actually make it across the border.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-are-leopard-2-tanks-polish-weapon-that-could-go-to-ukraine/ar-AA16gdhg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c3bcb71f7762437694bf600140407b68 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-are-leopard-2-tanks-polish-weapon-that-could-go-to-ukraine/ar-AA16gdhg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c3bcb71f7762437694bf600140407b68)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 12, 2023, 10:57:11 AM
Couldn't they just... wander over? They are Leopards after all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 12, 2023, 11:21:08 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on January 12, 2023, 10:50:12 AM
A demotion is better than an office with a view...and faulty window safety equipment.  :hide:

I bet the aircraft he shuttles around in has windows somewhere.

Or limos.

Or train cars.

(....on second thought, Russia has a habit of secretly moving around high ranking generals in cargo railcars without windows, so maybe not.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 12, 2023, 02:01:16 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on January 12, 2023, 10:54:47 AM
Leopard IIs going to Ukraine from Poland. I am a little jaded since we have seen similar promises with aircraft that never made it. Hopefully these tanks actually make it across the border.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-are-leopard-2-tanks-polish-weapon-that-could-go-to-ukraine/ar-AA16gdhg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c3bcb71f7762437694bf600140407b68 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-are-leopard-2-tanks-polish-weapon-that-could-go-to-ukraine/ar-AA16gdhg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c3bcb71f7762437694bf600140407b68)
I don't believe they promised them yet.  Just said they would send them if someone else does too. 

On a side note, I looked up how many Abrams tanks we have made and (if you can rely on Wikipedia ;D ) the US has thousands in storage!

" United States – United States Army and United States Marine Corps received over 8,100 M1, M1A1 and M1A2 tanks combined.[201]

    U.S. Army – 2,509 total, 750 M1A1SA, 1,605 M1A2 SEPv2, 154 M1A2 SEPv3 (some 3,700 more M1A1 and M1A2 in storage).[202][203]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 12, 2023, 03:06:18 PM
Maybe reconsider before sending any heavies there. They've apparently managed to destroy 4 Bradley IFVs already. And that's even before one Brad arriving there! That's some crazy skills :wow:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1613616934607810560
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 12, 2023, 03:09:01 PM
^ Ooh they already did that in September! Talk about reading your opponent's next move before he even knows he's got one. We're doomed.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1613619957031440384
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 12, 2023, 07:36:45 PM
Makiivka and Bakhmut: The Impact of Russian Casualties

https://samf.substack.com/p/makiiva-and-bakhmut-the-impact-of
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 13, 2023, 01:24:58 AM
why the Ukraine is winning.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1613551247184773123
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on January 13, 2023, 08:28:57 AM
Storm clouds on the horizon: "'Decision To Arm Ourselves Or Arm Ukraine': Navy Secretary Admits Crisis In US Defense Stockpiles"  https://www.zerohedge.com/military/decision-arm-ourselves-or-arm-ukraine-navy-secretary-admits-crisis-us-defense-stockpiles

IMHO, this may be part of the reason for the sending of IFVs and possibly tanks the Ukraine.  Absent a collapse of the Russian army, in order for this war to end the Ukrainians need to go on the offensive and take a lot of ground  If they don't, they may lose simply because the west can't give them the missiles and artillery it needs for a prolonged defensive war. Hence, the sending of offensive gear to wind this war up.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on January 13, 2023, 10:39:09 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on January 13, 2023, 08:28:57 AMStorm clouds on the horizon: "'Decision To Arm Ourselves Or Arm Ukraine': Navy Secretary Admits Crisis In US Defense Stockpiles"  https://www.zerohedge.com/military/decision-arm-ourselves-or-arm-ukraine-navy-secretary-admits-crisis-us-defense-stockpiles

IMHO, this may be part of the reason for the sending of IFVs and possibly tanks the Ukraine.  Absent a collapse of the Russian army, in order for this war to end the Ukrainians need to go on the offensive and take a lot of ground  If they don't, they may lose simply because the west can't give them the missiles and artillery it needs for a prolonged defensive war. Hence, the sending of offensive gear to wind this war up.

  Another aspect of sending some offensive gear is that it is now pretty clear that this war could just on on for years, so there is plenty of time to train the Ukrainians and plenty of reason to send gear to sustain them even for possible offensives or counterattacks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 13, 2023, 10:46:36 AM
Again that Ukrainian-attributed quote comes in handy: 'we are lucky the Russians are so stupid.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 13, 2023, 11:52:27 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on January 13, 2023, 08:28:57 AMStorm clouds on the horizon: "'Decision To Arm Ourselves Or Arm Ukraine': Navy Secretary Admits Crisis In US Defense Stockpiles"  https://www.zerohedge.com/military/decision-arm-ourselves-or-arm-ukraine-navy-secretary-admits-crisis-us-defense-stockpiles

IMHO, this may be part of the reason for the sending of IFVs and possibly tanks the Ukraine.  Absent a collapse of the Russian army, in order for this war to end the Ukrainians need to go on the offensive and take a lot of ground  If they don't, they may lose simply because the west can't give them the missiles and artillery it needs for a prolonged defensive war. Hence, the sending of offensive gear to wind this war up.

The article raises a very legit point, but I suspect that the headline might be a little exaggerated to draw clicks.  Reading the quotes of the Navy commander, it sounds like he was asked a leading question, indicated that it wasn't wholly incorrect, and the article jumped on top of this quote without presenting any research or even numerical facts to back this up. 

I'm also a little intrigued that a Navy commander is more worried about this than an Army or Air Force commander.  It's my understanding that about all the Navy is sending over are land-based anti-ship missiles, but there is probably more crossover than I realize.

The logistical demands of this war have surpassed all expectations.  We clearly have a lesson to learn about how quickly stockpiles get burned through in a high-intensity conflict.  This suggests that the US might need to recalibrate our force mix of "high quality/high cost" and "expendable/low cost" hardware to fight a high-intensity conflict. 

A $20M Predator drone might be an ideal platform for Afghanistan, where the ability to loiter safely over target areas for 6-8 hours is useful.  But if the average drone is shot out of the sky within a half-dozen missions by more sophisticated air defenses in a place like Ukraine, we might be better off by buying 100 throw-away spotter drones for $20K.

I worry about logistical challenges in Ukraine.  Without seeing more actual data on the topic, I'm skeptical that the entire West (with an economy roughly 30-50 times the size of Russia's) will run out of ammunition to supply to Ukraine before Russia's allies do.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on January 13, 2023, 03:22:25 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 13, 2023, 11:52:27 AMI worry about logistical challenges in Ukraine.  Without seeing more actual data on the topic, I'm skeptical that the entire West (with an economy roughly 30-50 times the size of Russia's) will run out of ammunition to supply to Ukraine before Russia's allies do.

  On the other hand, the Ukrainians probably have pointed out that all this firepower is killing a lot of people and it might be better for everyone not to rely on having the Russians run out of ammo (which could take quite a while)...it might be better to heavily arm the Ukrainians (to reduce their losses by ending the war by driving the Russians out of all Ukrainian territory).  After all, all this Russian ammo expenditure is killing a lot of Ukrainians, so it might not be the sort of calculus the Ukrainians want to follow to the bitter end.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on January 13, 2023, 04:49:14 PM
In this day and age, weapons and their ammunition have become so prohibitively expensive that how can any nation on earth be able to produce what it needs over a long period of time.  So in order to beat someone in this day and age all you have to do is make them fight in some sideshow and waste all their stuff.  Then when the main event takes place they have an empty load in which to fight with.

Back in WW2 weapons and ammo wasn't that expensive was it?  I mean relatively speaking governments could get the cash they needed to make M4A3E8's all day long forever and not run out of money.  Which means you could fight a war all day long forever and ever without worrying about the money to pay for the war.

Can we do that today? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 13, 2023, 05:03:45 PM
In WW2, quantity had a quality all its own.  Quality certainly mattered--ask any pilot who survived being shot at in a B-17 or a P-47--but quantity was important too.

Procurement in the US military for the last 50 years has seemed premised on the assumption that winning the first battle means you also win the war.  It's a little unclear if that's our actual warfighting doctrine, or the unintentional result of Congressional budget allocations because they don't generally understand the primacy of logistics, or the intentional result of Congressional budget allocations because they're more interested in channeling pork defense contracts back to their home districts.

To be clear, high-tech weaponry like long-range strike capabilities, PGMs, and EW matter more than they ever have.  There's just a balancing act between the expensive stuff and the throw-away stuff.  Stuff like dumb artillery shells should be cheap and plentiful.

I think the challenge in securing adequate supplies lies as much in our procurement methods as it does in the way we design new weapons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on January 13, 2023, 05:20:45 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 13, 2023, 05:03:45 PM...

To be clear, high-tech weaponry like long-range strike capabilities, PGMs, and EW matter more than they ever have.  There's just a balancing act between the expensive stuff and the throw-away stuff.  Stuff like dumb artillery shells should be cheap and plentiful.

I think the challenge in securing adequate supplies lies as much in our procurement methods as it does in the way we design new weapons.

One of the benefits of the PGMs is that it improves your logistics in that you need to ship fewer of them to the front-line units.  Russia is discovering now that its heavy dependence on unguided artillery munitions is straining its ability to move the stuff to the artillery units.  It also requires ammo dumps that need to be protected, and (ideally) far away from, say, billeted troops.  All of this strains the logistics, requires additional trucks and fuel, etc.  Smart munitions ease the logistics situation, at least in getting the munitions to the end user. (now getting the raw materials to make the PGMs is a different logistics headache....)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 13, 2023, 06:16:03 PM
Anyone know what percentage of our munitions stocks we used during the first Gulf War?  We spent a considerable time softening up the Iraqi's (weeks) and expended lots of ordinance. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 13, 2023, 07:30:13 PM
most things left over from Vietnam.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 14, 2023, 12:50:21 AM
Yeah, PGMs are useful.  As long as you have good targeting info.  If you don't (because, for example, you've run out of spotter drones locally), you turn back to throwing lots of shells at your suspected targets.

I'm not suggesting that the expensive weapons aren't useful.  I'm just suggesting that this war seems to be highlighting some really interesting trade-offs to be made as you try to balance whether you want to use an Italian sports car or a beat-up mountain bike for a particular mission.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 14, 2023, 12:56:42 PM
Where in Russia's case the Italian sports car is a Chinese knockoff version put together and maintained by grudging slave labor, or metaphors to that effect. ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 14, 2023, 12:58:50 PM
Meanwhile, the Enforcer drops a 10 minute summary of why the US is (and should be) supporting Ukraine (aside from the human tragedy factor) -- which happens to be also a rationale for why Moscow is (and from their position should be) conquering Ukraine.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 14, 2023, 01:33:45 PM
^Haven't conquered them yet  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 14, 2023, 02:05:04 PM
Yeah.  I think "trying to conquer" is probably a more accurate phrasing of the sentiment there.  The narrator is clearly not trying to justify Russian aggression, just explaining what the stakes are for an expansionist Russia unwilling or unable to embrace Western reforms to make their own way forward.

It's a useful video, and it's a topic that's been surprisingly neglected by both sides.  I think the author emphasizes the military and realpolitik aspects of it a bit much and neglects the cultural aspects (e.g., Ukraine is the closest thing that Russia has to a peer in the region, and if Western values and reforms spread to Ukraine it was a likely vector for the virus).

Even if Putin doesn't succeed in conquering Ukraine, he's severed most of the economic and cultural ties that were a threat to his kleptocracy and his dreams of an Imperial Russia (reclaimed by him personally, of course).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 14, 2023, 03:57:41 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 14, 2023, 02:05:04 PMEven if Putin doesn't succeed in conquering Ukraine, he's severed most of the economic and cultural ties that were a threat to his kleptocracy and his dreams of an Imperial Russia (reclaimed by him personally, of course).

That's a good point at the end: as long as his people are now irreconcilably estranged from Ukraine, he might consider this an acceptable outcome even though far from ideal and not really promotable as a win.

....and then he'll fall over dead and someone worse will take over.  :tongue:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 14, 2023, 04:56:29 PM
Now, THIS is a colorful piece of tech from China to help increase efficiency on the Russian battlefield at all levels!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 15, 2023, 03:37:13 PM
Does Belarus actually have the capability to intervene on Russia's side?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 15, 2023, 04:18:17 PM
yes they do.  I think all that would do is speed up delivery of all the toys the west has been dragging its feet on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 15, 2023, 04:36:29 PM
Well according to the video, Belorussia has about 50,000 troops trained mostly in counter-insurgency warfare in sub-Saharan Africa, which would be totally wasted in Ukraine. And no political will for entering the war in a combat role...in fact, it's just the opposite.

Lukashenko fears a heightened Belorussian involvement would be the final straw that would lead to him being unseated (at best) or killed in a bloody revolution or civil war, at worst.

There are also reported units of made up of 100s of Belorussians in Ukraine fighting against Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 15, 2023, 05:20:46 PM
What would the actual ramifications be of all these countries telling Switzerland to fuck off and giving the Ukraine the tanks it needs?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on January 15, 2023, 07:29:13 PM
Lol, so it's the swiss holding it up ?

If Beloruss joins the war, there will be a coup in minsk. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 15, 2023, 11:16:40 PM
yes, its the swiss holding up a shitload of weapons and ammo because of contracts and supposed neutrality.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on January 16, 2023, 01:38:22 AM
Not sure I'd call Soledar a victory for Russia when you see the disparity in casualties.  Ukraine still holds the raised rail line that Russia has to cross open ground to get to, and further attacks have been ripped apart.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 16, 2023, 11:11:16 AM
this is from back in June but I never saw it before and its somewhat interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1614678524018712577
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 16, 2023, 11:24:55 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmmOHUxXgAEYsvc?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 16, 2023, 11:32:41 AM
Is it me or does Lukashenko look like Scotty from Star Trek?  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 16, 2023, 12:34:02 PM
thats you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 16, 2023, 03:50:47 PM
An oversized Scotty pumped up full of helium.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 16, 2023, 05:09:31 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 16, 2023, 03:50:47 PMAn oversized Scotty pumped up full of helium.
more likely methane.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 17, 2023, 11:29:17 AM
As opposed to Scotch by the real Mr. Scott?  :tequila:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 17, 2023, 07:10:06 PM
No comments about the 12 or 14 Challenger tanks the British have provided?  It's curious to me that everybody is giving penny packets of equipment to the Ukrainians at this point (OK, maybe the British just promised a mechanized battalion's worth of total equipment, of which 12 Challengers are only a part?).  Hypothetical example:  Surely the Ukrainians would be better off getting 150 Bradleys, versus: 50 Bradleys, 50 Marders, and 50 AMX-10 RCs?

Is that borne out of monetary stinginess, fear of depleting their own inventories too far, fear of provoking Russia further, a desire to see which the Ukrainians like the most, or a perceived inability for the Ukrainians to use any more of them right now?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 17, 2023, 07:23:46 PM
there arent that many Challenger 2s to give away in the first place.  I think the total production run was less then 250.  it was more of a break the ice move so that other countries would transfer tanks.
the number of Bradleys seems to be more about available training then available numbers.  so it could be 50 now, 50 next month, 50 after that.
with the way the swiss are being total cunts about the Leo2s it wouldnt surprise me if the Ukraine started getting M1s by summer time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 17, 2023, 08:10:17 PM
maybe an old diesel electric sub?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Boggit on January 17, 2023, 10:27:35 PM
You might find this article on the Russia-Ukraine propaganda war, and the strategic nuclear rhetoric risks of interest...

http://freenations.net/the-extreme-dangers-of-ukraine-war-myths-and-propaganda/

http://freenations.net/ukraine-crisis-nuclear-weapons-and-mad-rhetoric/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 17, 2023, 10:33:47 PM
Word is that Wagner leader Andrei Medvedev has fled to NATO through Norway claiming that he will begin to release all sorts of information about the unit's legacy in Ukraine and the variety of crimes that they have committed on Ukraine and Russia itself.

Two links so far, will be out of pocket the rest of tonight and tomorrow, but others here will doubtless find more, and/or may be able to critique these as bunk:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/10ecmk9/former_wagner_pmc_mercenary_andrey_medvedev_asks/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/10ejbfo/andrej_medvedev_wagner_comander_flees_from_russia/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Credit to The Enforcer and his news digest for the day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 17, 2023, 10:41:21 PM
the soviets propaganda square in the middle of Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1615479580671844352
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 18, 2023, 03:40:17 AM
You know things are not going to plans when a business magazine is able to point out your failings.

QuoteThere may be worse ways to lose a tank, but the destruction of another T-90M 'Breakthrough' gives Russian leadership a lot to worry about. Because it was the victim of tactical incompetence which put the tank in an impossible position, as well as an embarrassing failure of its much-hyped defensive systems.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/01/17/why-losing-this-ultramodern-tank-is-such-an-embarrassment-for-russia/

Or, if that's too long a read, here's a summary of it:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmlkcFpXkAIsGSD?format=jpg&name=medium)

https://twitter.com/CrimsonJGlory1/status/1614932379759513602
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 18, 2023, 03:40:41 AM
Oh, the new forum now shows twitter content, too. Neat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 18, 2023, 11:21:28 AM
US arty ammo, stored in Israel, now being sent to the Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/us/politics/ukraine-israel-weapons.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 18, 2023, 12:25:52 PM
it would also seem that a decision about Leos for the Ukraine might be reached by this Friday.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 18, 2023, 01:54:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 18, 2023, 12:25:52 PMit would also seem that a decision about Leos for the Ukraine might be reached by this Friday.

Jeebus... just tell Switzerland to fuck off and do it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on January 18, 2023, 02:18:05 PM
Quote from: Windigo on January 18, 2023, 01:54:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 18, 2023, 12:25:52 PMit would also seem that a decision about Leos for the Ukraine might be reached by this Friday.

Jeebus... just tell Switzerland to fuck off and do it.

I think this is blocked by Germany, not Switzerland.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 18, 2023, 02:27:23 PM
its the swiss mostly with the germans using contract obligations as a deflection.
but it seems Europe is finally actually getting pissed off.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1615596606274822144
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 18, 2023, 02:57:59 PM
I wish the NATO leadership on both sides of the Atlantic were leading public opinion on the armament of Ukraine, rather than following it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 18, 2023, 03:47:23 PM
Yeah, I couldn't find anything about the Swiss causing this.  Switzerland did sell some of their surplus Leo's to Poland without guns in them. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 18, 2023, 03:50:28 PM
It was back in April that Switzerland block the use of their manufactured ammo for the Gepard in Ukraine. My bad confusing it with the Leo.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on January 18, 2023, 04:18:03 PM
Star I heard about the sending of US ammo reserves stored in Israel to Ukraine.  I'm not seeing anything on my go to news sites however, even though I know this happened.  Strange...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 18, 2023, 07:43:37 PM
Im sure if it was Israeli made ammo there would be a lot of coverage.
but its not.  its our own pre positioned stuff.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 18, 2023, 07:57:09 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/germany-military-aid-ukraine-tanks-debate/671804/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 18, 2023, 08:28:25 PM
Israel has been adamant to stay as neutral as possible since the beginning of the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 18, 2023, 08:29:26 PM
theyre giving what they can in non lethal aid.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 18, 2023, 08:32:09 PM
^Quietly.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 18, 2023, 08:45:23 PM
Here is what W8 was talking about...U.S. ammo and weapons stored in Israel going to Ukraine:

https://nyti.ms/3IZ2XOl
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on January 18, 2023, 09:05:14 PM
^Thank you Gus.  Good link.

I do feel some concern about moving ammo out of Israel even though it is not Israeli owned.  I'm pretty sure our stockpile over there would come in very handy in the event Israel finds itself in another war. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 18, 2023, 09:42:34 PM
no ones fucking with Israel anytime soon.
at least not in a way that they need 300k arty shells.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 18, 2023, 10:05:29 PM
In the NYTimes article it mentioned the Israeli stockpile was placed there after the 1973 war. Not sure when the Korean one was established. I never even know that either existed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 18, 2023, 10:07:28 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 18, 2023, 09:42:34 PMno ones fucking with Israel anytime soon.
at least not in a way that they need 300k arty shells.

I have to assume from prior experience that Israel isn't going to handicap itself risking its own existence among its enemies, either: they'll send what they can spare, but setting themselves up for destruction won't help anyone anywhere (including nearby itself).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 18, 2023, 11:02:30 PM
The article also mentioned that the arty stored there was for U.S. use in the event of Mid-East war. I imagine there would be a very great need for that ammo given the potential history and present conflicts in that region. Maybe the Ukrainians will give it back if we ask them nicely.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 19, 2023, 12:00:31 AM
I'd rather they give it the russians.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on January 19, 2023, 07:43:36 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 18, 2023, 02:57:59 PMI wish the NATO leadership on both sides of the Atlantic were leading public opinion on the armament of Ukraine, rather than following it.

  Good point.  I think (though I have been mostly wrong about everything in this war), things have reached a kind of
turning point because:
a) The Russians are working on seriously mobilizing their conventional forces (this means they have actually given up on the nuke option)
b) The West is seriously addressing the need to deter Russia overall by arming Ukraine (meaning the overall Russian threat to the West overall has finally gotten through to places like Sweden)
c) Russian threats have ceased to be about NATO and now are seen (by places like Sweden) as being absolutely
unacceptable and completely destabilizing for everyone
d) the Russian Nuke threat appears to apply only to retaliation for major attacks on the Crimea, meaning they have calibrated that down and accepted that hanging on even to Crimea is getting problematic

So maybe things are changing ...sort of for the better if the West starts seriously arming Ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 19, 2023, 08:34:02 AM
I can't wait to see what kind of hellish logistic problems Russia is heaping upon itself by going to a higher mobilization.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 19, 2023, 09:26:54 AM
With 'higher mobilization' what number of troops are the Russians aiming for?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on January 19, 2023, 09:36:50 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 19, 2023, 09:26:54 AMWith 'higher mobilization' what number of troops are the Russians aiming for?

Shortly before the start of the new year, Putin announced that he wanted to increase the number of military personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 19, 2023, 10:34:38 AM
Do you get the feeling that everyone in Russia is just playing along with Putin thinking in a year or so he'll be in KGB Heaven and then they can put everything back the way it was before he rode horses topless? Probably a lot in the West planning for the same thing. What if his doctors are better than we think?  :doh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 19, 2023, 10:51:02 AM
I thought I read about that 1.5m number but wasn't sure.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 19, 2023, 11:01:50 AM
I remember reading somewhere recently that he was adding 500K. So that sort of fits.

I noticed President Z was speculating whether Putin was dead already or in final incapacitation, although he admitted there was no direct evidence of this.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 19, 2023, 11:10:38 AM
^Really??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 19, 2023, 11:21:02 AM
now that vatniks are putting Pantsir on top of government buildings in moscow...  :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fm2No5HXgAImfoA?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 19, 2023, 11:21:52 AM
the more I read the more it looks like Poland just doesnt give a fuck about Germanys opinion on the tank matter anymore.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on January 19, 2023, 12:04:37 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 19, 2023, 11:01:50 AMI remember reading somewhere recently that he was adding 500K. So that sort of fits.

I noticed President Z was speculating whether Putin was dead already or in final incapacitation, although he admitted there was no direct evidence of this.

Here's an article with the 1.5 million man end strength number for the Russian military: https://thehill.com/policy/international/3816314-russia-lays-out-plans-to-boost-size-of-military-to-1-5-million/

Here's a report with a 500,000 number  https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-putin-about-to-gamble-on-a-second-mobilisation-wave/

There are reports the call up may be 700,000, but this "could" combine the normal spring draft call up with an additional call up/mobilization: https://nypost.com/2023/01/18/russia-readying-quiet-mobilization-of-700000-troops-report/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 19, 2023, 12:11:02 PM
^Thanks Tripoli - any links on Putin's possible 'death'?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on January 19, 2023, 01:22:30 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 19, 2023, 12:11:02 PM^Thanks Tripoli - any links on Putin's possible 'death'?

Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky questioned at the World Economic Forum whether Putin is still alive. "I don't really understand who to speak to," he says of possible negotiations.

"I'm not sure that the president of Russia - who can sometimes be seen on television somewhere - is the man to be negotiated with. And that he is still alive," Zelensky said during a video conference.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 19, 2023, 01:26:56 PM
^Wow - has the Russian cabal taken over? Going to guess this is just Ukrainian propaganda.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 19, 2023, 01:41:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 19, 2023, 11:21:52 AMthe more I read the more it looks like Poland just doesnt give a fuck about Germanys opinion on the tank matter anymore.

Poland has a huge domestic political faction that is EXTREMELY anti-German.  Not pro-Russian or anti-NATO, just anti-German (based on historical events, you see).  It's hard to tell how much of what's going on reflects actual Polish foreign policy and how much reflects political theater intended for Polish domestic political consumption.

I've been unimpressed with NATO's willingness to play hardball with Russia when it come to Ukraine, but I've been even more unimpressed with Germany's willingness to play hardball with Russia.  I guess at least they haven't announced a new Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact yet...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 19, 2023, 02:34:14 PM
soon this will be Ukrainian tankers!
this loader in a Chally is getting it done.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1615840272193126401
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 19, 2023, 04:31:06 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 19, 2023, 01:26:56 PM^Wow - has the Russian cabal taken over? Going to guess this is just Ukrainian propaganda.

Soft propaganda: he was replying to the idea that Ukraine should look into negotiating with Russia, and took a satirical stance about Putin's health. He did soften it to a wry joke by stating that he had no evidence for a dead Putin or body doubles or whatever, but the main point wasn't a serious claim about Putin's health. You can only say you have no basis for negotiations (yet) before you get bored and try to come up with a more amusing way to decline.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 19, 2023, 04:33:47 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on January 19, 2023, 01:22:30 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 19, 2023, 12:11:02 PM^Thanks Tripoli - any links on Putin's possible 'death'?

Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky questioned at the World Economic Forum whether Putin is still alive. "I don't really understand who to speak to," he says of possible negotiations.

"I'm not sure that the president of Russia - who can sometimes be seen on television somewhere - is the man to be negotiated with. And that he is still alive," Zelensky said during a video conference.

Zelensky gets points for creativity. Zelensky wins with this statement either way.

If Putin has managed to stay away from windows and not wear poisoned underwear, this statement comes over as a great Zelensky troll of Putin.

If on the other hand, Putin is taking a well-deserved dirt nap, Zelensky will be hailed for his amazing insight. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 19, 2023, 04:34:53 PM
Meanwhile, if Putin is looking for weapons from the 60s to help out, how about digging this thing out from the Caspian Sea for the propaganda points?!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 19, 2023, 10:33:49 PM
The Caspian Sea Monster moves west with Vlad riding bareback on top. That'd make a lot of people at NASA quit drinking.  :omg_2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 20, 2023, 01:56:54 AM
I really dont think the vast majority of the west gets how much Poland, the Baltic States and Scandinavia hate russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 20, 2023, 09:04:48 AM
Is Polish hate greater for Russia or Germany?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 20, 2023, 09:19:07 AM
Interesting and shouldn't be surprising:

Serbia uproar over Wagner mercenaries recruiting for Russia
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64329371
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 20, 2023, 12:17:21 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 20, 2023, 09:04:48 AMIs Polish hate greater for Russia or Germany?

Yes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 20, 2023, 02:04:17 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 20, 2023, 12:17:21 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 20, 2023, 09:04:48 AMIs Polish hate greater for Russia or Germany?

Yes.
I see what you did there.  Jason is on a roll!  (seeded, not Kaiser)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 20, 2023, 02:08:36 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 20, 2023, 09:04:48 AMIs Polish hate greater for Russia or Germany?
I think the Polish presence in NATO would suggest that there's more distrust of Russia these days.  The hatred for Germany seems to be very factionalized. 

I've not followed Polish politics closely, but I've read that their relationship with Germany is particularly troubled at this point in time, with some of the country's right-leaning party leaders NOT being on the same page as the Polish President in terms of rhetoric or sentiment (he is, I think, trying to walk a little more in the middle there, but it's costing him politically--within his own base, as I recall).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 20, 2023, 02:18:52 PM
^'We live in interesting times.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 20, 2023, 03:21:56 PM
hows this for a quick fire mission.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1616053336347742212
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 20, 2023, 03:28:49 PM
^'Sponsored by BAE Systems' hahaha
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 20, 2023, 03:30:26 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fm73grZWYAE5xyn?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 20, 2023, 03:38:44 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 20, 2023, 03:21:56 PMhows this for a quick fire mission.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1616053336347742212

like something out of those old RTS games from the '90s.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on January 20, 2023, 04:10:05 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 20, 2023, 02:08:36 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 20, 2023, 09:04:48 AMIs Polish hate greater for Russia or Germany?
I think the Polish presence in NATO would suggest that there's more distrust of Russia these days.  The hatred for Germany seems to be very factionalized. 

I've not followed Polish politics closely, but I've read that their relationship with Germany is particularly troubled at this point in time, with some of the country's right-leaning party leaders NOT being on the same page as the Polish President in terms of rhetoric or sentiment (he is, I think, trying to walk a little more in the middle there, but it's costing him politically--within his own base, as I recall).

I know about a dozen poles from DCS flying and Naval Actions groups, and the small window into their culture I've seen wouldn't suggest any hatred for Germans.  A few of them live in Germany for work and love it.  I would say the Poles have serious hate for Russia and don't be surprised if they join the war if Belorus joins Russia.  Any polish German negativity stems from the waffling and indecision for tough diplomatic decisions, it's like the Germans are scared of their own shadows these days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 20, 2023, 06:15:23 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on January 20, 2023, 03:38:44 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 20, 2023, 03:21:56 PMhows this for a quick fire mission.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1616053336347742212

like something out of those old RTS games from the '90s.

follow the money
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on January 20, 2023, 08:10:01 PM
Unbiased perspective.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 20, 2023, 10:34:52 PM
Thanks, Jarhead.  It was refreshing to hear somebody with some pretty strong opinions that didn't fall all on one side or the other.  I wish he'd injected a little opinion into a discussion about the strategic relevance of Bakhmut, but he seems like the kind of guy who'd be the first one to admit it's war and you just can't predict a lot of this stuff with any reliability.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 20, 2023, 11:08:48 PM
Agreed. Sounds like the experts who said the Russkies couldn't go on the offensive in Winter were wrong. The Ukrainians need a new version of Manstein's Backhand Blow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on January 20, 2023, 11:13:42 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 20, 2023, 10:34:52 PMThanks, Jarhead.  It was refreshing to hear somebody with some pretty strong opinions that didn't fall all on one side or the other.  I wish he'd injected a little opinion into a discussion about the strategic relevance of Bakhmut, but he seems like the kind of guy who'd be the first one to admit it's war and you just can't predict a lot of this stuff with any reliability.

There are other videos where he focuses on Bakhmut. I'll dig them up.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on January 20, 2023, 11:15:06 PM
Willy OAM on Bakhumt...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 22, 2023, 01:18:17 AM
Interesting.  Everybody is talking the most about the AFVs, but I was impressed with the detailed list he gave of who's sending what.  I didn't realize that there are so many self-propelled artillery pieces in that new raft of equipment:  18 HIMARS, about 30 155mm SP guns and another 30 152M SP guns, along with 20+ heavy artillery pieces.  I guess they are getting almost 150 IFVs (a mix of US, German, and Swedish makes) and another 40 or 50 French anti-tank Recon vehicles (how do you call something a recon vehicle when it carries a 105mm cannon?).

Nobody's talking about how many rounds of artillery (or how many spare barrels for those artillery pieces) are flowing into the theater, but that seems awfully relevant.  My understanding is that, with the growing importance of artillery in this theater, the biggest challenge is reconnaissance (whether that comes in the form of throw-away recce drones, better EW , anti-battery radar, etc.).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on January 22, 2023, 01:45:05 PM
Supplying the artillery rounds is a big issue for both sides.

I've heard that bahkmut is an attempt to take pressure off the kremina Savatove front as that is Ukraines real focus.  The Russian army is getting hammered and still hasn't fully recovered from the fall offensive in Kharkov.  Since bahkmut solidar was all wagner, it was an attempt to take pressure, but at the price of giving prigojzin the press.

Russia capturing Soledar or bahkmut strategically does nothing if the Russians can't exploit it.  The Ukrainians will just move to the next defensive line. 

Kremina how ever, is far more strategic and could break the front open again like the Kharkov offensive.

In theory, it's like two boxers fighting where one leads with his right, the other leads with his left, who gets knocked down first.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 22, 2023, 03:45:26 PM
If you want a dissenting opinion on the strategic relevance of Bakhmut, I'd encourage you to watch the video that Jarhead posted above in response to my earlier post. 

The dude might or might not be 100% correct, but he has some interesting insights about the tactical relevance of that location.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 22, 2023, 04:16:49 PM
Re overgunned "recon": this goes back at least as far as the Soviets who in WW2 had developed some wonderful recon vehicles with (at the time) overpowered main cannons. There's a funny photo of a Nazi recon officer standing on top of a captured one, using it as a perch to look over a nearby rise -- what's funny is that he has a really shiny butt! That's because he started the war riding a horse in a saddle, so you can imagine how happy he was to graduate to a speedy all-terrain enclosed vehicle with a heck-off cannon to snipe enemy armor.  :RockOn:

As recon units, I would expect this means they are underarmored compared with other vehicles but also not intended to shuttle squads of troops into battle (or even around generally). So not an APC/IFV, and not a tank, and not direct-fire (turretless) mobile gun.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 22, 2023, 11:37:55 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 22, 2023, 04:16:49 PMRe overgunned "recon": this goes back at least as far as the Soviets who in WW2 had developed some wonderful recon vehicles with (at the time) overpowered main cannons. There's a funny photo of a Nazi recon officer standing on top of a captured one, using it as a perch to look over a nearby rise -- what's funny is that he has a really shiny butt! That's because he started the war riding a horse in a saddle, so you can imagine how happy he was to graduate to a speedy all-terrain enclosed vehicle with a heck-off cannon to snipe enemy armor.  :RockOn:

As recon units, I would expect this means they are underarmored compared with other vehicles but also not intended to shuttle squads of troops into battle (or even around generally). So not an APC/IFV, and not a tank, and not direct-fire (turretless) mobile gun.

Yeah, it doesn't have passenger room.  The armor is about the thickness of an IFV, but they opted for a big-ass gun instead of a cabin.  I'm assuming it's intended as one part recon vehicle, one part tank destroyer, and one part direct-fire support for the infantry.  It's a bit like the battlecruiser of armored cars, I guess.

The 105mm medium-pressure cannon does NOT have the firepower of a tank killer like the high-velocity 120mm, but the HEAT round can take out MBTs at 1-2km, especially if shooting at side armor.  It feels more like an infantry support vehicle for mechanized infantry, but I suspect that anybody who knows more about the French army than I do would be able to say for sure.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on January 24, 2023, 06:51:14 AM
Apologies if this has been posted...it's a YT of the strategic opening 6 weeks. Very interesting

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 24, 2023, 11:56:24 AM
Very interesting indeed. Thanks for the video.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 24, 2023, 01:17:26 PM
well, after fucking around for way to long and for no fucking reason  other then he's an east german shit, the German chancellor has authorized the release of 12 Leo 2a6 to the Ukraine as an initial batch.
not A4s.... a6s.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 24, 2023, 01:24:18 PM
how soon for the M1a2s?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-formally-requests-german-permission-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine-11674558492?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 24, 2023, 01:28:38 PM
It's about time. Will be interesting to see the response from the Kleptocracy. The political commentators are going to have an apoplectic mouth foaming fit.

And now what will Poland do? They have been sitting on their hands for a while with their armour. Shit they are probably loaded on transports already.


And please please please have great thermals!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on January 24, 2023, 01:31:02 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 24, 2023, 01:24:18 PMhow soon for the M1a2s?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-formally-requests-german-permission-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine-11674558492?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Soon

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/us-abram-tanks-ukraine/index.html

The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send US-made Abrams tanks to Ukraine and could make an announcement as soon as this week, according to three US officials familiar with the deliberations.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 24, 2023, 01:59:55 PM
between Spain, Poland, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany were looking at just shy of 100 Leo's.  the Dutch want to buy 14 more and just give them to the Ukraine.
that first night engagement is going to be real fucking eye opening for the soviets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on January 24, 2023, 02:46:11 PM
It'll be nice playing Ukraine scenarios in steel beasts while operating leo2s, chally2s, and even M1s with Ukraine flags.  Tired of driving that Russian crap.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 24, 2023, 04:05:50 PM
I wonder how they'll integrate those weapons packages together?  My sense is that it makes a lot more sense to try to keep the US weapons systems "together" (e.g., Bradleys and M1s and Strykers and US artillery) than to peanut-butter them across the larger Ukrainian army, but I also know that some of those systems will be up and running a lot faster than others.

I honestly don't understand why it's taken us (the US or the rest of Europe) this long to do anything.  It's been pretty clear since Bucha that the only language Putin & Pals understand is the power of strength.  I do wonder if we're worried about any advanced systems making their way into Russian (and thence Chinese) hands?  I figure that is bound to happen if we commit them to war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 24, 2023, 04:52:58 PM
Threat of nuclear annihilation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 24, 2023, 05:11:33 PM
Oh pish-posh, nuclear armagedon is highly overated. Mind you I say that living in a country that won't attract that many nukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 24, 2023, 06:16:56 PM
^It won't matter where you are if Putin is feeling cornered and testy and has a bad day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 24, 2023, 08:35:48 PM
I understand that they want to do everything that they can to avoid playing Global Thermonuclear War.  I just don't understand why giving tanks to Ukraine seems more likely to trigger that.

I understand why they haven't given them ATACMS, although that's not a policy that I support, either.  But tanks?  We didn't even give them any stinking modern AFVs until a month or two back!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 24, 2023, 08:44:31 PM
We don't really know how insane Putin is...his lines in the sand change every day. If the first heavy tanks deploy on a day of lesser clarity for him, well...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 24, 2023, 09:23:58 PM
Im really not to worried about russian nuclear threats right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 24, 2023, 09:55:58 PM
I think it's worth worrying over. Has the last year not proven that anything can happen over there? Even with a victory over Russia...if chaos ensues, and nukes get loose...even one...it will be very bad.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 24, 2023, 11:22:02 PM
the worlds been down this road before the last time the soviets imploded.  the safety is cash and enlightened self interest.  every major nation state will pay for nukes at retail+ value.  terrorists dont have that kind of cash.  the people that will be selling them dont want the attention of fanatic people buying their goods. its a black market win win.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 24, 2023, 11:25:21 PM
QuoteWe don't really know how insane Putin is

worry more about the people around him and who can be there to stop him.  once again some russian officer could be like, NOPE!  the silver lining is the world could use a few billion fewer people.  :twirl:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on January 25, 2023, 03:24:21 AM
Appeasement? Tried it. Failed. Move on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on January 25, 2023, 04:17:20 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 24, 2023, 09:55:58 PMI think it's worth worrying over. Has the last year not proven that anything can happen over there? Even with a victory over Russia...if chaos ensues, and nukes get loose...even one...it will be very bad.

(https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/230124113545-doomsday-clock-2023.jpg?c=16x9&q=h_500,w_800,c_fill)


On Tuesday January 24, the Doomsday Clock was set at 90 seconds until midnight — the closest to the hour it has ever been, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which created the clock in 1947. Midnight represents the moment at which we will have made Earth uninhabitable for humanity. From 2020 to 2022, the clock was set at 100 seconds to midnight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 25, 2023, 05:10:35 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 24, 2023, 08:44:31 PMWe don't really know how insane Putin is...his lines in the sand change every day. If the first heavy tanks deploy on a day of lesser clarity for him, well...

While he certainly might seem insane as how we think and value things, I don't see any insanity from how Russian elite thinks, and has thought, over the years, decades, ...

Cornered, certainly. His special operation did not play at all to his expectations, which as with autocrats, were within an echo chamber of yes-men. His military has failed at least so far. His energy weapon scored a wound but was not lethal, EU, US, NATO responded.

How this all works out is anyone's guess of course.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on January 25, 2023, 06:24:06 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 24, 2023, 01:17:26 PMwell, after fucking around for way to long and for no fucking reason  other then he's an east german shit, the German chancellor has authorized the release of 12 Leo 2a6 to the Ukraine as an initial batch.

Scholz is not an east German, he is a stoic Hanseatic person, former mayor of Hamburg and such

the reason for the Leo Angst explained from within:
the burden of German history with Russia is weighting heavy on his shoulders and the members of his sozial democratic party.
he wants at all cost avoid a TikTok Video showing up where some  Leopard2, with chalked on "German historic markings" by some Ukrainian patriot, who wants to mock the Russians for real good, passing the still smoldering wrack of a T-something with charred bodies hanging out of the hatches when a bullet hole plastered road sign comes into view showing the name of a famous tank battle from 80 years ago... if the artist is good the video then fade into black and white and over into historic picture of the same spot , same camera angle  but different tanks  ... this kind of memes and stuff. 

There was (is) the fear that Russian hardliners Putin inner circle cant take it and start doing irrational things, shifting their growing anger form the NATO in general and USA as the instigator over to especially Germany as the real hereditary historic enemy.   
 possible leaching out with a single volley missile attack on German troops in Lithuania, probing NATOs will to retaliate without letting it spiral down into WW3.
or more likely
asymmetric undeclared warfare against Germany: awakening of sleeper cells for sabotage against energy- , communication-, traffic- infrastructures  without military means.   Germany is badly prepared for that  (recently two simultan 'cable fires' 550km apart in switching points stopped train traffic for a day  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2022_German_railway_attack  ... i think it was a test )
 A single burning fuel truck under an Autobahn bridge at a crossing can take the freeway interchange out for trucks for weeks in the affected direction. ... 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 25, 2023, 08:09:15 AM
^Well there you have it. It's the history wrapped up in the present chaos that makes me step back incredulously once a day and say to myself 'I can't believe this is happening.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 25, 2023, 09:15:44 AM
For that matter, the current Russian strategy of "We will continue taking hideous casualties until we win!" has at least two major historical precedents back into the early 1800s. The big difference is that they're committing to this strategy on an initial strategic offense, not on a strategic defense. Russia had better be turning Crimea into a proper Putin Line pronto instead of messing around in the Donbas: at some point, they're gonna have to choose which batch of land they want to keep.

If they can. The general strategic expectation on the internet is "tanks ==> Crimea". If that's the plan, that's a big escalation even for Russia's strategic interests.

The basic problem, geopolitically, for NATO tanks, is that they are very capable weapons for offensive invasion. Which is great when you're retaking your lost territory (assuming you have the 84 troops per  tank necessary to support them, along with all the equipment and proper training for those 84 troops, or whatever the modern ratio is), but handing offensive weapons over to the Ukrainian government elides out of self-defense mode.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 25, 2023, 09:26:00 AM
Anyone know what this hat says? From Reuters.

(https://s2.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20230124&t=2&i=1621191657&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=2023-01-24T192507Z_21567_MRPRC22RY9SOXNE_RTRMADP_0_UKRAINE-CRISIS-BAKHMUT-FRONTLINE)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on January 25, 2023, 09:40:34 AM
Willy OAM on German armor...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 25, 2023, 10:55:26 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 25, 2023, 09:26:00 AMAnyone know what this hat says? From Reuters.

Subtitle this hat!

"Downfall-meme Hitler requests your presence in the bunker."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 25, 2023, 10:56:51 AM
 :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on January 25, 2023, 11:09:40 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 25, 2023, 09:26:00 AMAnyone know what this hat says? From Reuters.

I think it is "Good evening, we from Ukraine"

(доброго вечора ми з україни)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 25, 2023, 12:19:58 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 24, 2023, 06:16:56 PM^It won't matter where you are if Putin is feeling cornered and testy and has a bad day.

Putins ultimate fall back is that the Ukraine just wants its territory back. Not sure if any war crime tribunals would occur other than a few sacrificial leaders.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 25, 2023, 12:46:58 PM
'Good evening, we from Ukraine' has a nice air of menace when paired with that image  :3musketeer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 25, 2023, 01:41:28 PM
Of course I don't want to see Russia win this war, but a massive loss for Russia will be felt far from Moscow - like in Armenia and Azerbaijan:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 25, 2023, 04:12:49 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnV7QISX0AACSMz?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 25, 2023, 04:25:38 PM
Spain for the win, wowzers
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on January 25, 2023, 04:49:44 PM
Great video regarding Nagorno Karabagh you posted Gus.  That guy knows what he's talking about.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 25, 2023, 04:51:18 PM
Yeah he's got some great content.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 25, 2023, 04:56:05 PM
how not to do the combined arms thing.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1618343407075864576
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 25, 2023, 05:09:24 PM
I cant make this shit up...
scroll down the thread for the captioned version as I cant seem to link that one.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1618333651883941888

anyone else ever wondered what an M1 or Leo would do to a T-34?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 25, 2023, 06:49:40 PM
a good thread with useful links.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1618377888113516545
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 26, 2023, 07:33:21 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 25, 2023, 04:12:49 PM-snip-

#FreeTheLeopards - Leopards have been set free!

You guys maybe know this already, but Leopard 2s are not alike, not at all. Here's a quick guideline (maybe a silly one but here we go) to differentiate between the various versions:

Leopard 2A4 - This is your proverbial late WW2 PzKpfw IV. A capable main weapon, but vulnerable. 2A4 as a rule has 1st generation (B-tech) armour modules in hull, and 2nd generation (C-tech) armour in turret.

Leopard 2A5 - PzKpfw V Panther with a PzKpfw IV main gun. Very capable armour: 2nd Gen in hull, 3rd gen (D-tech) in turret.From this version there's the > shaped added armour in turret front.

Leopard 2A6 - PzKpfw V Panther, with the high velocity, long main cannon

Leopard 2A7 - ermm... PzKpfw VIB King Tiger with Panther gun (with improved ammo). Most modern 2A7 have 3rd gen armour installed in hull, too. Then there's the added weight, so not a Panther any more for this reason.

Add to that each Leo2 operator made their nation specific fleet some changes. Then there's the 2A4/6/7 M-versions, with better protection against mines. Etc etc.

Maybe a silly comparison but something to think when you consider what models each army is giving to Ukraine.

Edit also take those numbers with a grain of salt. I have not seen many of those numbers confirmed anywhere.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 26, 2023, 09:05:13 AM
It is interesting that the M-1s are not going right away. Piecing info together from several news reports, the M-1s are being sent through a US Government fund known as the "Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative."

This means they will be purchased from the manufacturer and not sent from US military stocks. The M-1s in US military stocks are not export versions. The speculation is that they will be refurbished models and may take months to get to Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/m1-abrams-tanks-in-us-inventory-have-armor-too-secret-to-send-to-ukraine/ar-AA16JSSZ (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/m1-abrams-tanks-in-us-inventory-have-armor-too-secret-to-send-to-ukraine/ar-AA16JSSZ)

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/reversal-us-agrees-send-31-abrams-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-25/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/reversal-us-agrees-send-31-abrams-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-25/)

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/m1-abrams-for-ukrainian-armed-forces-will-be-provided-by-the-manufacturer-not-the-us-army-reuters/ (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/m1-abrams-for-ukrainian-armed-forces-will-be-provided-by-the-manufacturer-not-the-us-army-reuters/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on January 26, 2023, 10:16:34 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 25, 2023, 10:56:51 AM:evil:

  Speaking of things along those lines, ISW has concluded that the Russians are really worried about Ukraine's getting modern tanks.  This real worry is detectable (according to ISW) because the Russians are saying the modern tanks are not a problem (which means of course that they think the tanks are a problem).  ISW also points out that the tanks don't have to arrive for them to enter into Ukrainian calculations of acceptable losses in their current tank inventory:

The Kremlin and Russian milbloggers attempted to play down the Western provision of tanks to Ukraine, indicating that they likely find these systems threatening to Russian prospects. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on January 25 that the Western provision of Abrams and Leopard tanks to Ukraine is "quite a failure ... in terms of technological aspects" and that there is a "clear overestimation of the potential that [these tanks] will add" to Ukrainian forces.[10] Some Russian milbloggers likely sought to reassure their domestic audiences by claiming that these systems do not pose a significant threat and that previous Western systems like HIMARS are a far more serious threat.[11] The Kremlin and Russian milbloggers previously framed the Western provision of purely defensive Patriot missile systems as a serious escalation between Russia and the West.[12] The fact that the Kremlin and Russian milbloggers did not frame the provision of armored vehicles that could actually aid future Ukrainian counteroffensive operations as escalatory suggests that the Kremlin and the Russian information space continue to selectively choose which systems to frame as an escalation. The Kremlin and Russian milbloggers seem more concerned in this case with calming potential fears of the impact of Western commitments to supply Ukraine with tanks than with feeding the escalation narrative in the West. The Kremlin and its allies are right to be concerned about these new Western commitments, which allow Ukrainian commanders to plan against replacements for tank losses they could expect in counter-offensive operations that might be launched even before the Western tanks begin to arrive.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 26, 2023, 10:28:31 AM
The Russians must have really good weed  :crazy2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 26, 2023, 10:47:07 AM
Between training, customizing, establishing a logistical chain, and integrating them into the regular Ukrainian armed forces, these will take a while to make their presence known on the battlefield.  Even when they arrive, they don't do anything fundamentally different than T-72s did; they just do it better.

The HIMARS was a game changer because it extended the range of Ukrainian artillery 30 miles further into the Russian rear area, and it did so with significant accuracy.  If the Leopards or the Challengers or the Abrams will do the same thing on the tactical battlefield, I haven't seen it yet.

I'm glad to see NATO doing it.  I just don't see it being as big a deal as the media is making it out to be.  I actually think providing ATACMS would be at least as big a game changer, although I don't honestly know how many of those missiles (or how many HIMARS rockets) we'd be able to provide.  Being able to threaten Russian HQ units and logistical hubs another 60 miles behind the front lines seems more revolutionary to me, but maybe I'm missing something?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on January 26, 2023, 11:25:38 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 26, 2023, 10:47:07 AMBetween training, customizing, establishing a logistical chain, and integrating them into the regular Ukrainian armed forces, these will take a while to make their presence known on the battlefield.  Even when they arrive, they don't do anything fundamentally different than T-72s did; they just do it better.

The HIMARS was a game changer because it extended the range of Ukrainian artillery 30 miles further into the Russian rear area, and it did so with significant accuracy.  If the Leopards or the Challengers or the Abrams will do the same thing on the tactical battlefield, I haven't seen it yet.

I'm glad to see NATO doing it.  I just don't see it being as big a deal as the media is making it out to be.  I actually think providing ATACMS would be at least as big a game changer, although I don't honestly know how many of those missiles (or how many HIMARS rockets) we'd be able to provide.  Being able to threaten Russian HQ units and logistical hubs another 60 miles behind the front lines seems more revolutionary to me, but maybe I'm missing something?

  No, you are correct, I think.  The technology of the tanks isn't the game changer, it's the fact that the Ukrainians are getting any new tanks at all.  This presents a real problem if the Russians are hoping for the success of a strategy of long-term attrition.

   Another problem for the Russians is that most of the refurbishing, mods, and training for these tanks will be happening beyond the range of their conventional weapons.

   Another twist is that, since these tanks will take quite a while to arrive, it is becoming clearer than ever that the Russian fantasy of a hegemony of the West at their expense may not be a fantasy at all as the Western economies adapt and settle down to arming Ukraine for as long as it takes, the Russians face what they had invented themselves: a West that is solidifying against them with a total economic strength 30-50 times that of the Russian economy.  Not a pretty prospect and one (perhaps even more horrifying) that their own paranoia brought upon themselves.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 26, 2023, 12:38:54 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2023, 10:28:31 AMThe Russians must have really good weed  :crazy2:

Made of potatoes.  :martini:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on January 26, 2023, 03:25:46 PM
:doh:

QuoteOn Wednesday night, Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana told Newsmax of a report that indicates Russian President Vladimir Putin is in negotiations with the Taliban to purchase the weapons the U.S. left behind when Biden ordered a sudden withdrawal.

https://redstate.com/brandon_morse/2023/01/26/report-putin-and-taliban-negotiating-sale-of-us-arms-left-behind-by-biden-in-afghanistan-n694162
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2023, 04:04:38 PM
lets just say thats a pretty biased article.
sorry to bring some reality to the thread:

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/09/republicans-inflate-cost-of-taliban-seized-u-s-military-equipment/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on January 26, 2023, 04:51:59 PM
:TimeOut: The 80+ billion mentioned in your factcheck.org article was a number thrown about after the US withdrawal, but the article I referenced (and the Newsmax article it referenced) states the US left behind "over $7 billion in military equipment and weapons". A number that I find very plausible.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on January 26, 2023, 05:01:33 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on January 26, 2023, 09:05:13 AMIt is interesting that the M-1s are not going right away. Piecing info together from several news reports, the M-1s are being sent through a US Government fund known as the "Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative."

This means they will be purchased from the manufacturer and not sent from US military stocks. The M-1s in US military stocks are not export versions. The speculation is that they will be refurbished models and may take months to get to Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/m1-abrams-tanks-in-us-inventory-have-armor-too-secret-to-send-to-ukraine/ar-AA16JSSZ (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/m1-abrams-tanks-in-us-inventory-have-armor-too-secret-to-send-to-ukraine/ar-AA16JSSZ)

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/reversal-us-agrees-send-31-abrams-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-25/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/reversal-us-agrees-send-31-abrams-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-25/)

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/m1-abrams-for-ukrainian-armed-forces-will-be-provided-by-the-manufacturer-not-the-us-army-reuters/ (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/m1-abrams-for-ukrainian-armed-forces-will-be-provided-by-the-manufacturer-not-the-us-army-reuters/)

The key point in that is that we don't have an export model to sell/donate that doesn't contain highly classified tech.  So if I see M1's in Ukraine in the next few minutes, i.e. within a week or so, I will know that they have to be manned by us soldiers.  There is no way the Ukrainians have people that have been trained to operate this complex machinery.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 26, 2023, 05:26:51 PM
^There's Ukrainian troops in the US right now undergoing training. On what systems, I do not know.

There's also Western advisors in Ukraine. How many...God knows.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2023, 05:35:34 PM
Quote from: steve58 on January 26, 2023, 04:51:59 PM:TimeOut: The 80+ billion mentioned in your factcheck.org article was a number thrown about after the US withdrawal, but the article I referenced (and the Newsmax article it referenced) states the US left behind "over $7 billion in military equipment and weapons". A number that I find very plausible.

this topic has already been gone over many pages ago.  we didn't leave it behind, it was passed off to the Afghans and most of was complete shit then and its probably even more shit now.  the second half of that article was the meat of it, not the raw numbers thrown about.
but lets take the article at face value and russia is trying to buy this stuff.  what does that say about the state of the russian military that they're trying to buy junked US surplus.  go ahead, buy stuff you cant get parts for. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 26, 2023, 05:51:09 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on January 26, 2023, 05:01:33 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on January 26, 2023, 09:05:13 AMIt is interesting that the M-1s are not going right away. Piecing info together from several news reports, the M-1s are being sent through a US Government fund known as the "Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative."

This means they will be purchased from the manufacturer and not sent from US military stocks. The M-1s in US military stocks are not export versions. The speculation is that they will be refurbished models and may take months to get to Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/m1-abrams-tanks-in-us-inventory-have-armor-too-secret-to-send-to-ukraine/ar-AA16JSSZ (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/m1-abrams-tanks-in-us-inventory-have-armor-too-secret-to-send-to-ukraine/ar-AA16JSSZ)

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/reversal-us-agrees-send-31-abrams-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-25/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/reversal-us-agrees-send-31-abrams-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-25/)

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/m1-abrams-for-ukrainian-armed-forces-will-be-provided-by-the-manufacturer-not-the-us-army-reuters/ (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/m1-abrams-for-ukrainian-armed-forces-will-be-provided-by-the-manufacturer-not-the-us-army-reuters/)

The key point in that is that we don't have an export model to sell/donate that doesn't contain highly classified tech.  So if I see M1's in Ukraine in the next few minutes, i.e. within a week or so, I will know that they have to be manned by us soldiers.  There is no way the Ukrainians have people that have been trained to operate this complex machinery.
I noticed we are sending 8 armored recovery vehicles for 31 tanks.  Either that means they have poor reliability or the US REALLY doesn't want them to fall into Russian hands.  Probably the latter.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 26, 2023, 06:41:50 PM
I do wonder what the various security measures employed are by the different sides sending more modern stuff.  I wonder how much the US is worried about the Russians getting their hands on something, as opposed to the Russians then selling it to the Chinese?

I also wonder how many Chinese military advisors might be sitting on the Russian side gathering their own intelligence?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2023, 06:48:31 PM
QuoteI noticed we are sending 8 armored recovery vehicles for 31 tanks.  Either that means they have poor reliability or the US REALLY doesn't want them to fall into Russian hands.  Probably the latter.

or we have enough to send so why not give them an awesome vehicle. that thing can recover anything.  who wouldnt want that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2023, 06:54:08 PM
russians doing some SEAD work.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1618727367710736384
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2023, 07:01:26 PM
how not to maneuver a tank.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1618626651361017857
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 27, 2023, 12:13:45 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on January 26, 2023, 05:51:09 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on January 26, 2023, 05:01:33 PMThe key point in that is that we don't have an export model to sell/donate that doesn't contain highly classified tech.  So if I see M1's in Ukraine in the next few minutes, i.e. within a week or so, I will know that they have to be manned by us soldiers.  There is no way the Ukrainians have people that have been trained to operate this complex machinery.
I noticed we are sending 8 armored recovery vehicles for 31 tanks.  Either that means they have poor reliability or the US REALLY doesn't want them to fall into Russian hands.  Probably the latter.


Yes you are right, if we see M-1s in Ukraine in the next few weeks, it means NATO has said 'screw it' and crossed the border.

I'm not too worried about M-1s being captured. The US has been exporting various versions of the M-1 since before the first Gulf War. Countries like Iraq and Egypt have a bunch of them, along with almost a dozen other countries.

My guess is that the Russians and Chinese have already had their hands all over an older export M-1 somewhere.

Like the Leopard II, older versions of the M-1 are much less capable than more recently upgraded ones. As far as I know, nobody has said what versions will be supplied to Ukraine. My guess would be one of the middling versions.

As far as recovery vehicles are concerned, I don't think it says anything about the reliability of the tanks. If you have tanks, even reliable ones, you still need recovery vehicles. When you are spinning 70 tons around the woods at 40mph, even the best tanks are going to break something or get stuck from time to time. Also there is battle damage; even a T-72 can probably track one.

Still, I bet most of those 8 recovery vehicles will be used to support other tanks, such as the Leopards for example.

Also, although I have not seen any mention of it, I also assume somebody will send Heavy Equipment Transporters (HETs). The M-1s and Leopards (and even Challengers) are much heavier than Ukraine's typical Soviet MBTs. The old Russian equipment runs under 50 tons, while the Western tanks are pushing 70 tons. It takes a special kind of truck and trailer to move that much metal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 27, 2023, 07:43:39 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on January 27, 2023, 12:13:45 AM...As far as I know, nobody has said what versions will be supplied to Ukraine. My guess would be one of the middling versions.
 

What news 24 hours brings. Apparently M1A2s. Again the devil is in the details, but according to the article, the US would be sending fairly advanced tanks, but without advanced armor.

Something like the ones the US provided to the Saudis perhaps.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/26/us-sends-ukraine-advanced-abrams-tanks-00079648 (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/26/us-sends-ukraine-advanced-abrams-tanks-00079648)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on January 27, 2023, 09:03:28 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 26, 2023, 06:41:50 PMI do wonder what the various security measures employed are by the different sides sending more modern stuff.  I wonder how much the US is worried about the Russians getting their hands on something, as opposed to the Russians then selling it to the Chinese?

I also wonder how many Chinese military advisors might be sitting on the Russian side gathering their own intelligence?

One thing is for certain, this war is offering an opportunity to test out weapons systems.  Similar to what happened in the Spanish Civil war in the late '30s.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 27, 2023, 09:47:48 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on January 27, 2023, 09:03:28 AMOne thing is for certain, this war is offering an opportunity to test out weapons systems.  Similar to what happened in the Spanish Civil war in the late '30s.

+1  I bet that every CEO of all the major western defense companies are pestering their governments to get their stuff 'in there.'

They all want to be the next 'HIMARS'. I bet Lockheed's order book filled past capacity after the Ukrainians showed what a well aimed HIMARS can do last summer.

I half suspect that holding its place in military industrial complex land is partially France's recent motivation in sending stuff like the AMX-10 RCs to Ukraine. They are now talking about sending Leclerc MBTs. But to be fair to France, they are late to the party and just playing catch-up.

I know this sounds a little cynical. But I don't really think of it that way. We know that NATO is involved with observing how these weapons actually perform in this high intensity conflict. I have no doubt that the lessons learned are going to help NATO separate the "wheat from the chaff" in terms of weapons and doctrine. And that is a good thing in my book.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 27, 2023, 11:44:20 AM
I think War is the ultimate teaching tool. Prior to this conflict, wars were supposed to be quick and decisive like the Iraq wars or very low kinetic affairs like in Syria against ISIS. A need for massive amounts of arty shells, air to air missiles, and tanks? Nonsense. That was the old way of war. Now however the orthodox has been upended by the unexpected, and nations are clamoring for what they thought they'd never need anymore.  :doh: Oh, and don't forget the many, "We'll be in Paris by Christmas" claims a year ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on January 27, 2023, 01:10:22 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on January 27, 2023, 11:44:20 AMI think War is the ultimate teaching tool. Prior to this conflict, wars were supposed to be quick and decisive like the Iraq wars or very low kinetic affairs like in Syria against ISIS. A need for massive amounts of arty shells, air to air missiles, and tanks? Nonsense. That was the old way of war. Now however the orthodox has been upended by the unexpected, and nations are clamoring for what they thought they'd never need anymore.  :doh: Oh, and don't forget the many, "We'll be in Paris by Christmas" claims a year ago.

  Yep.  I wasn't expecting anything at all like this war.  But still, here's my latest guess at the current state of Russian Problems.  As usual (as I have learned over the last 10 months), the Russians are in a bind -- they need to attack now (X) before the Ukrainians build up and retrain and deploy better armor, but:
a) the Russians still seem to be somewhat wrecked by their earlier problems
b) they still seem to have many of those earlier problems
c) the Ukrainians seem to have their defensive capabilities working reasonably well
And D...if the Russians foul up an offensive now, it will just be so much worse when the Ukrainians
do attack
And E...maybe the Ukrainians can actually just stay generally on the defensive and crush whatever the Russians throw at them
AND F...what if a 1-2 year stalemate is more or less fine with the Ukrainians?  The assumption that a stalemate helps the Russians may not be true which takes us back to (X) and the possibility that for the moment a stalemate does seem to favor the Ukrainians for the short (2-6 month) term and maybe even more
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 27, 2023, 04:08:25 PM
per the last 2 posts I wouldnt draw any conclusions about how our high intensity wars are going to be fought.
theres a lot thats missing from the US playbook so far.
1. no unified air campaign with its associated SEAD and interdiction missions
2. no cohesive massive missile strikes
3. not much in the way of real combined arms warfare above the company level
4. effectively no naval component on the Ukraine side
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on January 27, 2023, 04:47:40 PM
I'm astonished on how this whole war is transpiring.  Based off of all the media clips that we've no doubt all seen if I were to say one thing that characterizes this war is it looks like a bunch of confusion mixed in with some chaos, alongside some spectacular images of stuff blowing up. 

Compare to what happened in '91-92 with Desert Storm.  Although Iraq had a million man army armed with all kinds of toys it evaporated in seconds in the face of a easily recognizable and understandable blitzkrieg campaign. It was all over in a matter of days.  The flipside is that it took more than a decade to clean up the mess and it's still messed up to this day even though we're not there anymore. 

This should have been the case in Ukraine and here we are a year later and nothing really to show for it from either side except killing, videos of stuff blowing up, and people suffering.  It just doesn't make sense when you compare this to all of the other wars that have happened in recent memory. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 27, 2023, 05:30:45 PM
we had a long and deliberate build up for both Gulf Wars along with all the elements I listed about.
its also a desert with little in the way of forests or water barriers.
the russians in their brilliance decided to start this shit show in winter after a major exercise and had their movements mostly restricted to roads. 
that single axis advance of Kiev and the resulting traffic jam was a predictable result.
the russians may have finally learned operational level warfare by 1945 but they have sure as shit forgotten
about it now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 27, 2023, 05:41:35 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on January 27, 2023, 04:47:40 PMThis should have been the case in Ukraine and here we are a year later and nothing really to show for it from either side except killing, videos of stuff blowing up, and people suffering.  It just doesn't make sense when you compare this to all of the other wars that have happened in recent memory. 

Why should that have been the case in Ukraine?

Quite a few, myself included if you check early in this thread, believed this was a possible, even likely outcome based on how the Russians chose to conduct the first stage of the war. 

Also, recent memory should also stir the Iran-Iraq war where something similar happened.  The Iraqis made a lot of the same mistakes in their calculations that the Russians made. 

Really, this war came down last year to the fact that the Russians vastly underestimated the Ukrainian armed forces, vastly underestimated the will and capacity of NATO to equip them, and tried to win the war on the cheap. 

The invasion had vast scope over a huge (unnecessarily so) swath of land and was executed with only a fraction of the forces that would be required for it to be guaranteed to succeed.

There's also a problem that perception of Russia's strength was also vastly inflated by Western media and governments.  It's like the constant refrain early on in the press that Russia had "13,000" tanks.  It's a number I still hear repeated.  The real number is a lot closer to 3000 which is not the overwhelming force that was advertised. 

The Russians should have mobilized a reserve months before the invasion and prepared to fight a long war even if you expect a short one.  For the ambitious plan they executed, the should have committed at least 500k, double what they sent. 

At best the UAF was outnumbered 2:1 at the start of the war.  They had reserves and manpower to close that gap, given time, and that's exactly what they did.  Russia botched the initial invasion by going cheap and expecting to have functionally destroyed the UAF in the first week.  Once their initial "blitzkrieg" failed it settled into a grinding war of attrition for the Russians.  Don't even get started on the massive institutional problems with the Russian Air Force that have done a lot more than western missiles have to keep the Russians from achieving air supremacy.

With all that considered I don't find anything particularly odd or shocking about any of it, and there are definitely recent conflicts where similar things occurred (Iran-Iraq, Chechnya) . 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 27, 2023, 06:26:24 PM
its like the soviet method of modern war doesn't work that well.   :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 27, 2023, 07:32:10 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1618946041906343936
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 27, 2023, 07:46:31 PM
oh the tears...... let them flow.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-solovyov-putins-no-1-cheerleader-rips-into-russias-war-failures
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on January 27, 2023, 10:51:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 27, 2023, 07:46:31 PMoh the tears...... let them flow.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-solovyov-putins-no-1-cheerleader-rips-into-russias-war-failures

A Russian version of the Tik-tok mascara rage. When the Ukes get F-16s then the Russian Tea Room's panty bunch will be epic.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 27, 2023, 10:52:35 PM
Well I suppose you can count this guy out as one of the reasonable people who would never allow Putin to use nukes against the West.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 27, 2023, 10:58:41 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fnf0rjQXkAEVl8E?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 27, 2023, 11:01:14 PM
I doubt many of us knew much about the state of readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces 12 months ago, and while we all knew that the Russian army had problems, I'm not sure that any of us imagined how thoroughly dysfunctional the entire command structure would prove itself when finally tested.

Fast-forward today, and I'm a bit more concerned.  The longer this war goes on, the more likely it is that the Russians will figure out how to fight a war.  The Russian definition of "winning" never involved taking fewer casualties; it just involved crushing the enemy's will to fight and occupying their land.

I'm leery of overestimating the Russian leadership again soon.  The notion that the Russians were some sort of murderous Keystone Kops is supported by what we saw in the first part of the fighting, and it's certainly a conceit that plays to Western vanities.  But if we want to go into this open-eyed, it might be worth at least entertaining a few competing narratives.

I'm not saying that the Russians are winning or that they will win.  I just haven't yet seen signs of an imminent Russian collapse.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 27, 2023, 11:36:08 PM
Apropos of nothing, it looks like Turkey (and Erdogan in particular) is continuing to be a thorn in the side of the West, blocking Sweden's entry into NATO and delaying Finland's entry for as long as possible :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 28, 2023, 12:10:00 AM
do I think the russians are learning, yes.
the issue is that the people learning are getting killed and cant pass on any knowledge to the next wave.
I thinking the Ukranians are learning faster and rotating enough people to pass the experience forward.
this is russia without lend lease and with a shit population base and society.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 28, 2023, 03:19:34 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 27, 2023, 11:36:08 PMApropos of nothing, it looks like Turkey (and Erdogan in particular) is continuing to be a thorn in the side of the West, blocking Sweden's entry into NATO and delaying Finland's entry for as long as possible :/

Erdogan being Erdogan. Finland and Sweden applied to NATO together and will walk the process in lockstep.

Ergodan's made a mess of their economy, among other things, and given his opposition called him "weak" towards Finland and Sweden, the latter in particular due to the large Kurdish refugee population there, Erdogan is putting his best strongman play to appeal to his voters.

There's a consensus nothing will happen before the election. After that, if he's still delaying at the July NATO meeting then there's a real issue at play. He's got many grievances, many of his own making.

As for Hungary, Orban's happy to offer his support to his kin autocrat-at-making. So we'll see.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on January 28, 2023, 10:16:47 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 27, 2023, 11:01:14 PMI doubt many of us knew much about the state of readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces 12 months ago, and while we all knew that the Russian army had problems, I'm not sure that any of us imagined how thoroughly dysfunctional the entire command structure would prove itself when finally tested.

Fast-forward today, and I'm a bit more concerned.  The longer this war goes on, the more likely it is that the Russians will figure out how to fight a war.  The Russian definition of "winning" never involved taking fewer casualties; it just involved crushing the enemy's will to fight and occupying their land.

I'm leery of overestimating the Russian leadership again soon.  The notion that the Russians were some sort of murderous Keystone Kops is supported by what we saw in the first part of the fighting, and it's certainly a conceit that plays to Western vanities.  But if we want to go into this open-eyed, it might be worth at least entertaining a few competing narratives.

I'm not saying that the Russians are winning or that they will win.  I just haven't yet seen signs of an imminent Russian collapse.

Well, I'm usually wrong but
Unfortunately, I think some sort of significant "Russian Collapse" is really the best chance the Ukrainians have (paradoxically in the short term).  I think if Ukraine can avoid being overrun in the next six or eight months, then they will be okay in the long term.  I know the general take on the situation is that a long-term stalemate favors the Russians, but that may well not be the case.  I think the biggest danger right now for the Ukrainians is that they will try to hold or even expand their territorial control and the Russians will exploit this by hammering away on the whole southern front, attritioning the Ukrainians across the whole spectrum and causing a Ukrainian morale collapse.  If the Ukrainians stay flexible and use deception at all levels, they have a chance at obliterating some major Russian thrust in a few months -- but, if they let themselves be hammered and/or get suckered into an attack that gets chewed up -- they may be in a bad place relatively soon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 28, 2023, 11:59:25 AM
I agree with you basically Meng. Russia can afford to lose battle after battle and still not lose. However if the Ukrainians lose even one big fight they could be doomed. I'm thinking the Russkies failing at attacking everywhere a year ago, will now in the spring, go for one BIG offensive somewhere they think will be decisive. Where I don't have a clue. But even a big breakthrough into all that Ukrainian space will rapidly run out of gas and supplies though. So who knows? This maybe the longest running thread in Grogs history.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 28, 2023, 12:31:36 PM
lol @ big breakthrough.  I hope they do and let the Leos fight exactly in the manner in which they were designed for.  I also disagree that the russians can keep losing battle after battle.  the homefront, while forced to be supportive, isnt very happy at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 28, 2023, 12:34:30 PM
russian offensive abilities  :Loser:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1619334552148914176
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 28, 2023, 01:03:32 PM
how we used to deal with the russian missile threat.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnkpBklXwAAVW9n?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 28, 2023, 01:10:10 PM
another day in the trenches.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1619304210776100864
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on January 28, 2023, 03:26:00 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 28, 2023, 12:31:36 PMlol @ big breakthrough.  I hope they do and let the Leos fight exactly in the manner in which they were designed for.  I also disagree that the russians can keep losing battle after battle.  the homefront, while forced to be supportive, isnt very happy at all.

  Well, that's the required set of tricks in a nutshell: a) get the Leopards and so on (some sources claim more than 300 tanks of mostly more modern types are heading for the Ukrainian army right now) BEFORE the Russians stage their biggest attacks
b) hang on until the Russians fall apart (which might take years, but the most dangerous thing coming up should be pretty soon or to put it another way -- if Ukraine survives the next 6-8 months they should be fine, stalemate or not)...but I've usually been wrong about this war from day 1 so who knows?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 28, 2023, 10:16:35 PM
I hear you. But if the Russkies can just pull back across the border, short of the Ukrainians invading, how can they ever win? The Russians can hang-out a while, replace their losses, and come back again and again. Star thinks the Russian people will rise-up and refuse to keep fighting but I ain't seen a lot of movement in that direction. Maybe the next guy after Putin will be better, but maybe worse. Better get a comfortable seat, this could last a while.  :m113:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on January 28, 2023, 10:50:46 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on January 28, 2023, 10:16:35 PMI hear you. But if the Russkies can just pull back across the border, short of the Ukrainians invading, how can they ever win? The Russians can hang-out a while, replace their losses, and come back again and again. Star thinks the Russian people will rise-up and refuse to keep fighting but I ain't seen a lot of movement in that direction. Maybe the next guy after Putin will be better, but maybe worse. Better get a comfortable seat, this could last a while.  :m113:

  The way I see it, if the Ukrainians can get over this next dangerous period, they will be able to hold their lines more or less against whatever the Russians care to go after them with.  Notice that Belarus, which supported the initial attack, is effectively neutral now.  And this is just a symptom or an indication of how things are likely to go.  Anyway, to repeat -- if the Ukrainians get through the next dangerous period, the war will enter a stalemate and Ukraine will win because the war is completely pointless and a complete waste for the Russians while it is a matter of survival for the Ukrainians.  The war is only running to keep Putin in power.  As soon as he goes one way or another, then the Russians will leave if the Russian army doesn't collapse first and by collapse, I mean essentially stop doing much, which in many ways might already be happening.  I doubt there will be anything dramatic like uprisings in Russia, just a slow erosion of any willingness to pursue the mess with or without Putin.  sure, it might take a year or two, but once the Russians see they have nothing to gain and are just wasting everything for nothing, they will figure out some way to stop.  There will be some big diplomatic bunch of stuff where they try to save face and then the whole mess will slowly fade -- and the Iran-Iraq war is a good earlier example of a pointless mess that has now ceased to matter at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 29, 2023, 03:41:57 AM
Well this is interesting, I had missed this at the time.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1619407597832118273

Here's  the map:

(https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*CG0pY7CifClwn0kzf7LVOg.webp)

And here's his estimate he refers in his tweet:

QuoteThis is the maximal Russian invasion plan. Western militaries' war games showed that Ukrainian forces have only minuscule chances to defeat Russian armored forces in an open battle, as Russian air supremacy will be massive. Ukraine's chance to successfully fight Russia to standstill rests on Ukraine's ability to activate, equip and disperse Ukrainian active and reserve forces quickly and effectively before Russia invades. It rests on Ukraine dispersing and camouflaging its forces to reduce the risk of losing entire battalions to Russian artillery and rocket strikes. It's rests on Ukraine's ability to deny Russia the use of its railways. It rests one Ukraine's ability to ambush, isolate and destroy Russian units in detail. It rests on Ukraine's ability to deny Russia the crossing of the Dnieper. It rests very much on the speed, amount and type of weapons the West delivers. It rests on the ability of Ukraine's population to endure in the face of Russian bombardments and sieges. And it rest above all, as Finland showed in winter of 1940–41, on the Ukrainians ability to kill Russian soldiers: 10,000 is good; 50,000 is better; 100,000 dead Russian soldiers will bring peace.

The full article itself, from Jan 28, 2022 (!)

https://medium.com/@noclador/putins-plan-4652895de8ba
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 29, 2023, 05:48:43 AM
so......  wtf is going on in iran?  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 29, 2023, 04:07:27 PM
Re bringing 500K the first time instead of 250K: I WISH THEY HAD! They were almost completely incapable of logistically supporting 250K (including in C&C), and would have fallen apart even more quickly with 500K. (I remember being snorfed at, back last year a week or so before kickoff, when I reported shallow logistic infrastructure behind the front line: surely they couldn't have 150K troops on the front doing training exercises without logistics! Okay, in way that's true, if they focus one or two mutually supporting attacks, perhaps on Kiev, maybe that will work.... oh, huh, they knocked on all doors instead. Their logistic backfield would need to be Herculean to support that.... oh, huh, they didn't have one really.)

I hear lots of bluster about raising troop levels to a real partial mobilization this time, and (as I said several weeks ago) I hope they try! -- they still show no CCC capabilities yet, and what kit do they even have in storage to use? For all the crippling overspecialization of the pre-war Stalin era, at least they theoretically understood supply, command, control, and communications, and tried to put theory into practice with hyper-industrialization. As someone said upthread, they don't get Lend-Lease this time; nor do they get Western help in setting up ten years of hyper-industry beforehand. This of course is why the spluttering heads back safe at home keep talking about nukes: nuclear terrorism is all they really have to work with as a viable threat.

A long-term stalemate works for Ukraine because they have somewhat-helpful allies with S-class God-tier logistic capabilities. Russia is playing games with mobilization -- in itself a bad idea -- but they don't have any choice if they're going to continue, because they don't have the backfield capability to do anything better than play games with mobilization.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 29, 2023, 11:43:48 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 28, 2023, 12:31:36 PMI also disagree that the russians can keep losing battle after battle.  the homefront, while forced to be supportive, isnt very happy at all.

I think collapse or coup are the only ways Russia stops. Sure the people aren't happy, but they are effectively suppressed. The 20th century taught us that authoritarian regimes can really let things burn to the nub before the people put a stop to a war.

No idea how close a coup is. But collapse may still be far off. Historically, mass surrender and refusal to fight are early signs, and we aren't seeing that yet.

Of course there is all sorts of stuff about how the Russians are in a bad place. But not much has really changed in the last few months. In a few miniscule spots, they have even gained ground at very heavy cost.

I would love to see them collapse tomorrow, but I just don't see it.

Now coup is another story...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on January 30, 2023, 12:15:30 AM
Anyone who thinks this war is anywhere close to ending is seriously misguided. The worst is yet to come. Undoubtedly. Russia is nowhere close to collapse or coup.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 30, 2023, 12:28:11 AM
Quoteand refusal to fight are early signs, and we aren't seeing that yet.

there are videos weekly of different units refusing to fight for all kinds of reasons.  usually its lack of support and equipment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on January 30, 2023, 05:00:59 AM
so whats next, my guesstimate...

Ukraine will sign a pure-bilateral contract with Poland to allow Poland  "deep propositioned border security forces" in their country.
The Polish brigades will deploy along the Polish border in the West and in the North at the border to 'neutral' Belarus, maybe all the way up short to north of Kiev.
This will free up Ukrainian boots for to stop the red flood and stomp in the South.
NATO will declare that it is purely bilateral and that happenstance Polish losses on Ukrainian turf will not be seen as an attack on a NATO state member - de jure.   

Russia will continue to trade in 3-9 "surplus"-Russians" (criminals, drunks, and people they don't think valuable for their society anyway - not even as low trained workforce) and especially "non Russians"-Russians (according the lines of unspoken inner Russian racism) as cannon fodder for one battle hardened Ukrainian soldier until Ukraine is not able to man the long stretched border anymore to counter several simultan Russian Schwerpunkt attacks, even if they shift their troops in a hurry.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 30, 2023, 05:45:20 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 30, 2023, 12:28:11 AM
Quoteand refusal to fight are early signs, and we aren't seeing that yet.

there are videos weekly of different units refusing to fight for all kinds of reasons.  usually its lack of support and equipment.

... corrupt officers, lack of training, bad food, obsolete equipment, ... I've not seen any refusals due to anyone being against the war. The good Tsar calls you to help secure your Motherland, you go. Rallying around the flag.

In another news, this is from a couple of days ago, an Estonian intel officer presuming what we are seeing now is already at least the beginning of their big offensive. With a grain of salt.

Quote"People are talking about an upcoming large-scale Russian offensive. I am moderately confident that Russia itself already thinks it is conducting one. It's just that none of the others see it as large."

"I am doubtful how good a picture Putin has about the status and readiness of its units."

"Besides Bakhmut and Soledar, Russia is trying something near Vuhledar and Pavlivka about 30km southwest of Donetsk. Also, they have been conducting offensives north of Vasylivka (where the Dnipro river turns straight north and where there would be direct route to Zaporizhzhia)."

"But all of this seems to be largely resultless."

"Last time they tried in Vuhledar was 2-3 months ago and they had 2 battalions worth of their marines killed in 3 days. They are also without any success in Kreminna and, if anything, Ukraine is really slowly advancing there."

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1618991902514360320

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1618991902514360320.html

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on January 30, 2023, 08:05:50 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on January 30, 2023, 12:15:30 AMAnyone who thinks this war is anywhere close to ending is seriously misguided. The worst is yet to come. Undoubtedly. Russia is nowhere close to collapse or coup.

  I'm beginning to think it might already be winding down (to a level that Russia can sustain for decades of course).  With Putin putting some serious generals in command and downplaying Wagner and co.,  it seems that Putin and his
associates are building up a case for one last hurrah that is never going to come.  If there was a major real attack
left in the Russian assessment of the situation they would need to make it right now, not in six months when the Ukrainians are heavily resupplied and upgraded.
Notice also that the Russians are saying "There's no point in negotiating now that NATO is supplying a lot
of major weapons."  Translating this from Russian rhetoric, it really means -- "We want to negotiate.  we see what is happening."
Notice also that Turkey is saying Finland can come into NATO.  This is more pressure on Russia to wind things down before they lose their leverage in Syria and Iran.
Notice also that Russian forces are pulling out of Belarus.  That sort of clinches the picture of a basic Russian intention of winding down this war -- sure it will go on for many years, but just to show that Putin is still running things.  Clearly, collapse is on Putin's mind.  If he can avoid collapse, he can stay in power, but the best way to avoid collapse is to wind down the war gradually.
And if that's true, you can see why the Ukrainians are asking for everything right now because as the actual threat from Russia fades, Western support will fade.
Anyway, that's my take on things and I've been totally wrong about this war from day 1.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 30, 2023, 08:27:37 AM
Speaking of downplaying Wagner: is that Group even a thing anymore? I haven't been where I can keep up with their shennanigans, but I recall them taking boocoos of losses in the past few weeks, and I even posted a report that a (chief?) leader had defected to the West somewhere -- which I didn't have time to vett, so I was hoping someone would pro or con that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on January 30, 2023, 09:08:12 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 30, 2023, 08:27:37 AMSpeaking of downplaying Wagner: is that Group even a thing anymore? I haven't been where I can keep up with their shennanigans, but I recall them taking boocoos of losses in the past few weeks,...

Wagner has taken huge losses in the conscript portion of its force, in (I believe) an effort to attrite and/or prevent the reconstitution of Ukrainian forces.  It also has mercenaries who are better trained, some of whom operate their more sophisticated gear (such as aviation assets).  I'm not sure what the losses of these forces are, but I assume they are substantial as well.

One data point that might give some insight into the current status of Wagner: In the NYT article "To Fix Its Problems in Ukraine, Russia Turns to the Architect of the War" https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/28/us/politics/russia-generals-ukraine.html there is this paragraph: "Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, the architect of President Vladimir V. Putin's invasion of Ukraine, took over the day-to-day running of Russia's war effort this month...Since General Gerasimov replaced Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was in the job for only three months, Russia's military leadership has focused on tactical issues...Promoting General Gerasimov, U.S. and other Western military officials say, was intended to both deflect criticism of the war effort from the military bloggers and to check the rising power of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the mercenary group Wagner that has spearheaded the bloody Russian offensive at Bakhmut in the Donbas. Mr. Prigozhin has also been a staunch supporter of General Surovikin. "The recent shake-up in commanders of the war effort seems like the result of political infighting and cronyism," ... "
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on January 30, 2023, 11:36:43 AM
Interesting. I was thinking the Ukrainians should have at the ready a Psy Ops plan that as close to the beginning of a new Spring Offensive as possible, that put into effect that Putin has died. If it was believable enough, maybe a really good video of Putin in a casket or a secret message they intercept announcing it to the Generals, the whole Russian military MIGHT just drop their rifles and walk home, like in 1917. Probably even the Generals wouldn't know whether it was true or not. It might start a fight for power, revolt or civil war or who-knows what. At the very least, Putin would have to come out into the open to refute it and reveal his real health status which probably ain't good.

Maybe it would forestall or prevent altogether a Russian offensive for weeks or months until things get cleared-up by them. The Russian conscripts aren't fighting for Mother Russia, they're fighting because they fear Putin and his thugs. If that threat is gone in their eyes, then this war might be as well. Just the thoughts of an addled old man.  :grumpy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 30, 2023, 12:06:20 PM
Well does the West really want a Russian civil war? If Russia disintegrated that would not be good for anyone either. Regime change - great - but a total collapse of the entire country...not so great.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 30, 2023, 06:00:12 PM
Regime change looks to be a toss-up at best, too.

Meanwhile, Russia is practicing for the eventual arrival of the M1s by pretending they already killed one. In the summer desert of... Ukraine....?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/10nregf/russians_claim_their_first_abrams_tank_by_using_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on January 30, 2023, 06:47:22 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on January 30, 2023, 12:15:30 AMAnyone who thinks this war is anywhere close to ending is seriously misguided. The worst is yet to come. Undoubtedly. Russia is nowhere close to collapse or coup.

The big unknown here is Putin's health.  Like you, I think it's unlikely that he's overthrown.  But if he dies, then we'll have a major guessing game about who inherits the mantle next?

As Gus suggests, an extended civil war within a country holding 6,000 nuclear weapons is a recipe for all sorts of problems.  To be sure, even if he's surprised us in the last few years (in part because he's done such a crappy job in many respects), he is still The Devil that We Know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 30, 2023, 07:44:03 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 29, 2023, 04:07:27 PMRe bringing 500K the first time instead of 250K: I WISH THEY HAD! They were almost completely incapable of logistically supporting 250K (including in C&C), and would have fallen apart even more quickly with 500K.

Logistically, no, they never had a way of supporting that number with the equipment and plan they had. 

That's the point.  The Russians, for what they had, should've had a much more limited plan that could've been supported better with short, controlled line of supply. 

The initial invasion plan was wildly over ambitious for the number of Russian troops and Russia's ability to supply them. 

To have won this war in the "first week" if that was even possible, the Russians needed a different plan.


And, 500k troops available doesn't mean you use that in the invasion.  The reason the UAF was so effective in its counterattacks was that the Russians by mid summer had no reserves.  Had they planned for the potential of a longer war and already mobilized those reserves by February 2022, they would've gone a long way to plugging the gaps against future counterattacks like they're doing now. 

Anyway, as JH said, this thing is a LONG way from over and a long way from being decided in the Ukrainian's favor.  Russia could very well start a war winning campaign in the Spring if they do it smartly and understand it's not going to be done in a week. 

I'm not holding my breath for anything decisive though.  Not as they sit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 31, 2023, 09:01:38 AM
To be fair, if they insisted on trying to win in a week, with only the forces currently available, on the basis that they estimated the government and its military would implode (i.e. 'kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will collapse'), a shock and awe by envelopment of all attack vectors was the only thing to do.

Putin (apparently?) didn't want to take another long-term nibble, hoping for political acceptance of a fait accompli as in Crimea and the Donbas, even if that nibble was Kiev. That would only trigger the NATO addition he didn't want to happen; only a full fast collapse of Ukraine per se would minimize any risk of NATO picking up Ukraine as a team-member. So politically, I get why they had to try it that way.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 31, 2023, 10:30:28 PM
Say, remember the VDV? Haven't seen them much since summer last year. Wonder why that is?

Well by September, half of Russia's entire VDV force had been wiped out. So.... wondering how they're doing as January ends... ;)  :martini:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/10pz1pg/the_creator_of_rybar_channel_who_now_has_a_live/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 31, 2023, 10:43:38 PM
ok nerds, a comprehensive map update.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fn2WXwkWQAEb2hP?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1620626767366209537
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 01, 2023, 08:09:37 AM
Hey to Jomini!  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 01, 2023, 08:11:32 AM
Same image, without the height constraint, only the width.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fn2WXwkWQAEb2hP?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

Hm, not really getting more of a zoom than before, even with clicking to (supposedly) full 4096sq size.

(This was an experiment with the forum code.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 01, 2023, 03:49:30 PM

A quick-n-dirty economic impact of the current Russia + Ukraine fundamental production and export situation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on February 01, 2023, 04:32:57 PM
A couple of quick thoughts on latest news
1. If I was a sailor on the ships that are being broadcasted in this article I would be pissed.  Ivan still has plenty of ways to put a hole in the side of her either during transit or when she docks
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-m2-bradleys-have-begun-their-voyage-to-the-battlefield
2. Has anyone seen what the breakdown of injuries and deaths are in this war.  I suspect its got to be precision and quick directed arty and shrapnel as and drone strikes seem to have become real force multipliers

Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 01, 2023, 04:42:38 PM
the russians wont touch that ship at all.  if it does the toy chest with be fully opened for the Ukraine.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on February 01, 2023, 06:15:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 01, 2023, 04:42:38 PMthe russians wont touch that ship at all.  if it does the toy chest with be fully opened for the Ukraine.  :evil:
Plausible deniability is all they need - just like with the pipeline
Plus it would quiet the propagandists at home.
Get one of those mine trained dolphins to do the dirty work
Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 01, 2023, 11:20:29 PM
Or an Underwater Suicide Drone? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 01, 2023, 11:44:32 PM
calm down Dale Brown.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 02, 2023, 01:45:44 AM
the very end of this clip of russian state tv bs is where the idea of sinking the freighter originates at the 7:02 mark:
gotta love russian disinformation warfare.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 02, 2023, 10:47:09 AM
I thought the Russians had moved to self-organizing nanobots masquerading as plankton that can assemble themselves into a sea-borne laser at a moment's notice? 

In case you couldn't tell, the Russians hate whales almost as much as Ukrainian independence.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 02, 2023, 11:14:02 AM
the clip of that host calling for an airborne assault on Berlin is hysterical.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 02, 2023, 12:50:56 PM
Coming to the Ukrainian Theatre: Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDBs) - 150kM range

"The GLSDB is equipped with an ultra-low fragmentation, carbon fibre case warhead with 57.6 kg Insensitive Munition-certified explosive fill. "

Funny way to say almost 58 kg of "boom"

If and when the UAF gets these in quantity.... it will make things more interesting for the ruskies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 02, 2023, 12:52:16 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 02, 2023, 11:14:02 AMthe clip of that host calling for an airborne assault on Berlin is hysterical.
Canada has that contingency covered, Platoons of Cobra Chickens in Senator AFVs
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 02, 2023, 10:54:33 PM
So the GLSDB bombs are, 'Insensitive'. Good. Bombs should never be sensitive, they have a job to do.  :grumpy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 02, 2023, 11:52:56 PM
that means they wont blow up easily when exposed to fire or nearby explosions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 03, 2023, 12:50:52 PM
On the other hand, they can't score the many morale benefits of having kittens cuddling up in their jackets.  :grin:  :kiss:

("Sensitive".)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 03, 2023, 01:10:49 PM
Yeah, and I bet they don't get the really hot girls either. If they can't cry I mean.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 03, 2023, 01:16:43 PM
Guys who can cry only get the really hot girls after the age of 25.  No hot 22-year old woman wants a boyfriend known for his tearful displays of emotion. 

Unless he's also a well-paid professional athlete.  They're allowed to cry when they lose games, so long as they are rugged and physical sports (soccer counts, cricket doesn't).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 03, 2023, 02:45:25 PM
Good point! This man knows his 22 year-olds.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 03, 2023, 02:47:17 PM
I wish I did.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on February 03, 2023, 04:21:56 PM
^As Larry from Three's Company used to say to Jack...

"You dirty dog!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 03, 2023, 04:41:21 PM
(https://nedhardy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/richard_kline_threes_com-pany_3.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 03, 2023, 05:39:58 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 03, 2023, 01:16:43 PMGuys who can cry only get the really hot girls after the age of 25.  No hot 22-year old woman wants a boyfriend known for his tearful displays of emotion.

I feel like this invalidates the entire "bishie" phenomenon from manga/anime, where girls swoon over the "cute-boys" (Bishonen). But maybe that's performative swooning...

https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/Bishonen
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 03, 2023, 06:33:07 PM
revelations about Pratts hidden henti addiction aside it seems that the Ukrainians might be giving up Bahkmut soon.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoDwgpDXEAAYnO_?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 03, 2023, 07:42:37 PM
Well, hi there VDV! Glad to see you out in target range!  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 03, 2023, 11:04:58 PM
They should leave a supply of vodka behind when they go. The Russian Army would be out of commission for a week. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 03, 2023, 11:57:32 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 03, 2023, 11:04:58 PMThey should leave a supply of vodka behind when they go. The Russian Army would be out of commission for a week. 

That's funny because while I laugh at the face of it, it's sadly not accurate.

I read a report of a UK volunteer fighting in Bakhmut, might have had some of his stuff posted earlier in the thread.  But he reported that the Wagner troops they were mowing down were all, the ones that lived, massively drunk and high.

They were being fed cheap vodka and drugs to just advance, under fire, and dig trenches. The UAF troops said they operate like zombies.  The trenches were for the more trained troops to advance and use as staging for assault.

So...no. Vodka isn't keeping the Russians out of commission.  They're using it as an assault enhancer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 04, 2023, 12:17:23 AM
theres a whole chapter in Hacketts Untold Stories of the Third World War.
essentially cluster bombs filled with tomato sizes globes of vodka dropped on advancing troops.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 04, 2023, 10:10:18 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 03, 2023, 11:57:32 PMSo...no. Vodka isn't keeping the Russians out of commission.  They're using it as an assault enhancer.

Which, to be fair, could be expected from being Russian -- not being put out of action!  :RockOn:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 04, 2023, 10:42:38 PM
If they want to get the troops to charge out of the trenches at the enemy into certain death, instead of giving them vodka, they should just post pics of Vlad topless on horseback everywhere.  :HideEyes:   I actually remember reading about the Russian troops in WWII discovering huge caches of liquor and getting roaringly drunk and refusing to fight, singing and dancing. Who could blame them? Then or now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 04, 2023, 10:46:34 PM
from all that Ive read, being drunk on the Eastern Front was pretty common on both sides.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 05, 2023, 12:25:30 PM
even camels dont like russians.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1622256502516989956
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 05, 2023, 03:59:08 PM
I thought, ha how could that be "sensitive content", until I clicked it. Jesus Christ on a camel! -- that looked like a dog killing a rat! Then a car rolls up at the end, stop, beeps its horn for the camel to move out of the way, the camel looks up to evaluate its chances on the next target, then goes back to nosing the body! Still in the path of the newly arrived car.

"Camels don't shiv." -- Frank Miller's 'Rob', to 'Don' probably, after seeing that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 05, 2023, 06:05:21 PM
Holy moly - he killed him! That is nuts. Lesson learned...for the rest of us.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on February 05, 2023, 08:13:13 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 05, 2023, 06:05:21 PMHoly moly - he killed him! That is nuts. Lesson learned...for the rest of us.
In latest news Wagner has started a new recruitment for its Camel Corps
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 05, 2023, 09:02:53 PM
Finally watching By Dawn's Early Light for the first time right now. I don't know if any of you remember it, but the incident that sets everything off occurs in...Donetsk  :undecided:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 06, 2023, 08:17:18 AM
This is an eye-opening update.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 06, 2023, 11:26:46 AM
Corruption inside the Ukrainian Government, why is the first time I'm hearing about this? Please keep in mind I've been asleep for the last 10 years.  :TimeOut:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 06, 2023, 11:54:14 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 06, 2023, 11:26:46 AMCorruption inside the Ukrainian Government, why is the first time I'm hearing about this? Please keep in mind I've been asleep for the last 10 years.  :TimeOut:

  I thought it was a topic of globally obsessive interest, but then I'm generally wrong about these things.  Meanwhile, the
Russians seem to be making some advances.  I hurried over to ISW, but their latest update is about how Putin is trying
to minimize his risks.  I guess a Russian offensive now isn't too risky and maybe less risky than waiting for the Ukrainians to do something big and in any case Putin has to keep this war going forever, which might mean not going too far with the current Russian offensive since it might get into trouble.  Better to just keep pounding away, I would think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 06, 2023, 12:23:54 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 06, 2023, 11:54:14 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 06, 2023, 11:26:46 AMCorruption inside the Ukrainian Government, why is the first time I'm hearing about this? Please keep in mind I've been asleep for the last 10 years.  :TimeOut:

  I thought it was a topic of globally obsessive interest, but then I'm generally wrong about these things.

I expect Slash is deploying some satire about how much some media are ignoring the prior problems in their (understandable) interest for keeping up support for the Ukrainian people defending their land.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 12:27:57 PM
If the Ukrainians weren't doing anything about their corruption problems I would be upset, they happened be doing quite a lot about it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 06, 2023, 12:36:05 PM
Quote from: Con on February 05, 2023, 08:13:13 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 05, 2023, 06:05:21 PMHoly moly - he killed him! That is nuts. Lesson learned...for the rest of us.
In latest news Wagner has started a new recruitment for its Camel Corps


Man, the gritty modern update to that 1976 Disney film loosely based on the US Cavalry in the 1854 southwest desert, is gonna make fans of the original chew up the internet and spit on it! (....like a camel!)

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074614/

(Note: one of the first movies at a theater I ever saw as a kid. Unlike Godzilla vs Megalon, I have not watched it many times since then and do not own at least two copies of it on DVD/Blu.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 06, 2023, 12:37:04 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 12:27:57 PMIf the Ukrainians weren't doing anything about their corruption problems I would be upset, they happened be doing quite a lot about it.

I know, they've been (and had been) working on it. Arguably that's one of the reasons Putin decided to invade: he was losing his grip on the previously established corruption which he was counting on to deliver the country into his hand without set piece battles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 06, 2023, 03:08:54 PM
Well obviously someone caught stealing from your own government being just moved to a new post isn't doing as much as could be done about it. Like maybe firing the guy. Or charging him with a crime? How about finding out what he did with the money? That would at least be a good start.  :nono2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 03:15:51 PM
they are removing and charging these people.
what disinformation is tucker the taint tanner feeding you today?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 03:52:01 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 06, 2023, 03:08:54 PMWell obviously someone caught stealing from your own government being just moved to a new post isn't doing as much as could be done about it. Like maybe firing the guy. Or charging him with a crime? How about finding out what he did with the money? That would at least be a good start.  :nono2:

you mean like this where he got fired:
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/top-defense-ministry-officials-dismissed-amid-ongoing-food-procurement-scandal

and here were he got arrested:
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainska-pravda-court-arrests-ex-deputy-defense-minister-sets-bail-at-10-96-million

or maybe your confusing things with this person leaving one post for another:
https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainska-pravda-intelligence-chief-likely-to-replace-defense-minister
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 03:54:46 PM
seems no one bothered that ro-ro after all.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoS0DycWYAEJ313?format=jpg&name=large)

and another is currently loading up another 60 Bradleys stateside today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 06, 2023, 03:59:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 03:15:51 PMwhat disinformation is tucker the taint tanner feeding you today?

These kinds of bullshit comments aren't necessary. Keep them to yourself.

I don't even think the corruption point is a major part of the video. The more pressing takeaways in my view pertain to the losses the Ukrainian military is sustaining to hold onto Bahkmut and its potential to collapse, as well as the fact that US and Europe are essentially still buying Russian crude.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on February 06, 2023, 04:00:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 03:54:46 PMseems no one bothered that ro-ro after all.



and another is currently loading up another 60 Bradleys stateside today.

Ivan is pivoting from dolphins to camels
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 04:10:22 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 06, 2023, 03:59:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 03:15:51 PMwhat disinformation is tucker the taint tanner feeding you today?
These kinds of bullshit comments aren't necessary. Keep them to yourself.

considering all of the many many times that russian state tv is praising or quoting tucker it might be a more fair question then you think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 04:12:06 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 06, 2023, 03:59:36 PMThe more pressing takeaways in my view pertain to the losses the Ukrainian military is sustaining to hold onto Bahkmut and its potential to collapse

I mentioned last week that Bahkmut is going to fall.  Im of the opinion that they held it to long.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 06, 2023, 09:51:00 PM
Sounds like it's too target rich to give it up just yet.  The goal always was maximum casualty infliction.  Will Russians run out of meat shields at bahkmut, probaly not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 06, 2023, 09:55:01 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 04:10:22 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 06, 2023, 03:59:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 03:15:51 PMwhat disinformation is tucker the taint tanner feeding you today?
These kinds of bullshit comments aren't necessary. Keep them to yourself.

considering all of the many many times that russian state tv is praising or quoting tucker it might be a more fair question then you think.

I'm not Jarhead and I won't pretend to be him on TV, but I think the "Tucker the taint tanner" comment can be fairly viewed as a personal attack within the domain of this board. 

We can fling monkey poop at each others' ideas all we want, but flinging monkey poop at each other makes this place more odious.  We'd all love a board where everybody agrees with each other, but then we wouldn't learn jack poop.  The happy medium is not to fling monkey poop at each other but only at our ideas.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 10:12:13 PM
fwt Im picking on tucker and his opinions. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 06, 2023, 10:47:21 PM
I was only referring to the video JH posted today. I didn't notice you jumping at the chance to post anything contrary to what was in the video until you could make it insulting and personal. A more appropriate response, and a whole lot classier, would've been something like, "Actually, the Ukrainians are making much progress in curbing corruption including taking these actions against the man named in the video" followed by the links. That's a comeback I could respect and might spur some interactions that we could all learn something from. Really this thing you've got for Tucker Carlson is baffling to me and can't be healthy for you.

I would be willing to bet this is not the only case of corruption in the government nor will it be the last we hear about it. The level it existed at before Zelensky came into office means he cannot possibly have eliminated it all though I do believe he has tried. How successful he will be waits to be seen. He has a lot on his plate, fighting the war would take priority I would think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 10:54:59 PM
the guy is a misinformation mouthpiece that does nothing but gaslight.
he should be called out as such.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 06, 2023, 11:00:59 PM
So are you but we still love you.  :Hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 07, 2023, 08:30:04 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 04:12:06 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 06, 2023, 03:59:36 PMThe more pressing takeaways in my view pertain to the losses the Ukrainian military is sustaining to hold onto Bahkmut and its potential to collapse

I mentioned last week that Bahkmut is going to fall.  Im of the opinion that they held it to long.

 Maybe they are not holding it for too long.  After all, even if you are going to fall back eventually (and I suspect the Ukrainians are going do some major retreats in the next few months to conserve their forces) -- anyway, even if you are planning on retreating, there's no point in doing it too soon, especially when you have some good positions and your enemy is obliging by attacking where you are well prepared in good positions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 07, 2023, 08:39:59 AM
So, getting back to shooting the actual enemies...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kyiv-sabotage-team-kill-major-general-ulyanov-in-latest-blow-to-putin/ss-AA17cvLA?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=05a790826d1742dfae5e9bd833b091f0#image=1

(I realize the Daily Mail can be construed as a misinformation mouthpiece, but this seems legit. ;) )

Compiling the actual article from the Mail's (or maybe MSN's) click-baity formatting:

QuoteVladimir Putin has lost yet another general in the war in Ukraine, according to reports. Major-General Dmitry Ulyanov, 44, had returned to active service after retirement as a commander in Russia's illegal Ukrainian invasion.

He died in a firefight when he was attacked by a Ukrainian sabotage group this week, say reports. Previously Ulyanov was a top paratrooper, commander of the elite 98th Guards Airborne Division. He went to the current war commanding a regiment of mobilized motorized infantrymen from Tatarstan.

Ulyanov had earlier served as the Chief of Staff of the 7th Airborne Division, commander of the 1141st artillery regiment, and commander of the 98th Airborne Division, say open sources.

Ulyanov is the first such high ranked commander to be killed for many months. A family friend posted that he had been the son of a commander. 'Like his father did not sit in the rear, he went to the front line,' said the eulogy. 'Glory to the Hero! Glory to the Airborne Forces!'

The death means Putin has lost at least ten such senior commanders. Reports last year named the following top brass killed in the war: Lt-Gen Yakov Rezantsev, 48, Maj-Gen Andrei Kolesnikov, 45, Maj-Gen Andrey Sukhovetsky, Maj-Gen Vitaly Gerasimov, 44, Maj-Gen Vladimir Frolov, 54, Maj-Gen Andrei Simonov, 55, Maj-Gen Oleg Mityaev, 48, Maj-Gen Kanamat Botashev, 63, and Maj-Gen Roman Kutuzov, 53. Several other earlier claims of high ranking officers killed in the war were not subsequently confirmed.

Wow, glory to the Airborne Forces, for the Major-General who went to the current war commanding... um, wait... a regiment of mobilized motorized infantry from Tatarstan?!?

I feel like this may have been a guy standing perched at an open window of a yacht or a metaphor to that effect.

(To be fair, so little of the VDV remains that he may have just taken whatever combat job he could get rather than sit back safe at home. Still, not exactly glory to the Airborne Forces really.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 07, 2023, 08:44:27 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 07, 2023, 08:30:04 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 04:12:06 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 06, 2023, 03:59:36 PMThe more pressing takeaways in my view pertain to the losses the Ukrainian military is sustaining to hold onto Bahkmut and its potential to collapse

I mentioned last week that Bahkmut is going to fall.  Im of the opinion that they held it to long.

 Maybe they are not holding it for too long.  After all, even if you are going to fall back eventually (and I suspect the Ukrainians are going do some major retreats in the next few months to conserve their forces) -- anyway, even if you are planning on retreating, there's no point in doing it too soon, especially when you have some good positions and your enemy is obliging by attacking where you are well prepared in good positions.

That isn't the problem so much as the enemy pushing to flank and cut off their position.

On the other hand, if the defenders in Bakhmut are strategic bait, then they could be luring the Russians into cutting them off so that the Russians can be hit in the sides and back by counter-siegers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 07, 2023, 10:13:19 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 07, 2023, 08:44:27 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 07, 2023, 08:30:04 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 04:12:06 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 06, 2023, 03:59:36 PMThe more pressing takeaways in my view pertain to the losses the Ukrainian military is sustaining to hold onto Bahkmut and its potential to collapse

I mentioned last week that Bahkmut is going to fall.  Im of the opinion that they held it to long.

 Maybe they are not holding it for too long.  After all, even if you are going to fall back eventually (and I suspect the Ukrainians are going do some major retreats in the next few months to conserve their forces) -- anyway, even if you are planning on retreating, there's no point in doing it too soon, especially when you have some good positions and your enemy is obliging by attacking where you are well prepared in good positions.

That isn't the problem so much as the enemy pushing to flank and cut off their position.

On the other hand, if the defenders in Bakhmut are strategic bait, then they could be luring the Russians into cutting them off so that the Russians can be hit in the sides and back by counter-siegers.

I doubt they are bait.  From the Ukrainian point of view, they have to manage the trade-offs of time and space and the strength of their forces against an unknown amount of Russian pressure over an unknown amount of time.  They only have so many places to defend and only so many forces to risk.  There may be no dramatic solutions for either side so you have to defend as long as you can when you get the chance.  It's not pretty, but do they have any other choices?  Not really.  If they win it will be only because the Russians really have nothing to gain from running the war forever and the Ukrainians have everything to lose by not running the war forever.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 07, 2023, 10:33:29 AM
True, although I recall seeing (since posting) a report from 3 days ago where Ukraine did use Bakhmut as bait to lure some Russian forces into a hot and deadly counter-flank.

(Hot and Deadly Counterflank will also be my stripper name if I ever decide I need the extra money that badly.  :twirl: )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 07, 2023, 11:04:51 AM
UK Ministry of Defence, suggesting the great Russian winter offensive? We're looking at it. Estonian intelligence was suggesting the same already a couple of weeks ago.

Appalling losses, battalion of men, company of tanks, for several days running, again. Per Ukrainian sources, of course, but they've been consistent.

Sheer madness.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1622843727298404353
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 07, 2023, 11:23:18 AM
Another opinion suggesting the large offensive is about capturing Donbas, and it is commencing. UA might for now be content to cause the invaders massive casualties, but might not want to wait too long for their own offensives.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1622602875338629120.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 07, 2023, 11:43:00 AM
Ukrainians claim yesterday was the deadliest day of the war for the Russians.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-says-russians-endure-deadliest-day-so-far-as-fighting-intensifies-in-east/ar-AA17d97j?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=14afaf0d157c4463abad3adb76c976ed (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-says-russians-endure-deadliest-day-so-far-as-fighting-intensifies-in-east/ar-AA17d97j?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=14afaf0d157c4463abad3adb76c976ed)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 07, 2023, 12:11:02 PM
I am hoping all this combat is Ukraine sucking the Russkies into throwing away lots of men in order to exhaust themselves prior to a grand offensive when the weather improves. But I wonder how badly the opposite is happening, the Ukrainians cannot afford to trade man-for-man with the enemy. Or even close to it.

However, the Russians haven't actually gained that much ground for the men lost if the reports are accurate. If all they get is Bakmut for a whole Winter of fighting then I'd say that's a strategic victory for the Ukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2023, 12:50:59 PM
I laugh every time the russians use the term "elite".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2023, 02:22:13 PM
Germany approves the transfer of 178 Leo1s  to the Ukraine and Switzerland is considering ending its export bans on military hardware.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2023, 05:58:49 PM
russians are fucking stupid!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1623066375366275084
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2023, 06:21:55 PM
good bit here about 155mm shell production.

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023/02/06/the-us-effort-to-arm-ukraine-starts-in-scranton-pennsylvania/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 07, 2023, 07:46:43 PM
That post above with the exploding drone was Warner Brothers quality.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2023, 08:58:50 PM
I shit you not, Windy was msg me from Utah after he saw some A-10s playing overhead.  I told him not to fuck with any colored globes or cylinders he sees for exactly this reason.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 07, 2023, 09:14:39 PM
Let's see if he listens.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 07, 2023, 09:43:57 PM
Hm, we used to have a strong munitions factory about 30 minutes south-southeast of where I'm sitting -- targeted by a Russian nuke, of course (probably still is), which gave us some wry chuckles growing up in the Cold War. Don't look off in that direction very often, don't want to see the flash or that's the last thing you'll see!

I should ask around some locals, see if they're gearing up to production again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 07, 2023, 11:19:25 PM
I think the Russian with the stick was more Marx Brothers than Warner Bros. I can see why they didn't trust him with a rifle.  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 08, 2023, 09:41:09 AM
Very good Newsweek op-ed on the importance of training and logistics in M1 (and other modern western tank) operations, and what happens when people using those tanks have only trained a few weeks or even months instead of years. Glenn Girona is a U.S. Army veteran and CRM program manager for UMGC Europe.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i-served-on-u-s-army-abrams-tanks-giving-them-to-ukraine-is-risky/ar-AA17eZ6f?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=9747b03c817141d2a69ecadeaf8f2d5a

QuoteThe ability to shoot, move, and communicate, are core to any successful tank crew. Doing it with better equipment will help, but the experience to fix the small problems that crop up will be critically missing. The Ukrainians will need to be able to answer questions such as: Are the turret hydraulics broken or did someone accidentally turn the tiny hydraulic release valve? How many spare track blocks and road wheels are there? Are the boresight procedures completed correctly? Is there anything available for mechanics to pull an almost 70 ton Abrams tank out of a mudhole a second lieutenant guided a tank into? Pulling a 45 ton T-80 tank out of a hole is going to seem like child's play in comparison.

Tactically, compared to even the most modern Russian T-90 tank (which is a substantial upgrade of a T-72 but still basically an older design with lots of foreign tech installed) an old M1 Abrams will be a revelation. Logistically, however, it may be more than a war ravaged country, fighting against a numerically superior force, can handle.

In my experience, tactics win battles, but logistics can win wars.

{...}

In my personal opinion, the small number of M1s sent to Ukraine are more symbolic than anything. Powerful but too difficult to employ with the resources and training available and too important to lose. It does however lead the way for other countries to provide their own tanks (though posing the same logistical issues) and demonstrate to President Vladimir Putin a commitment to support Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 08, 2023, 10:27:35 AM
Agree completely. Reading, Brothers In Arms by James Holland, the Sherwood Rangers in France 1944-45. Time after time tanks and crews were lost due to having too little time to integrate new crew members or leaders in place of people lost or promoted elsewhere. I'm sure it's much the same today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 08, 2023, 11:34:34 AM
interesting, I'm reading the same book right now.
anywho...

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/what-russia-got-wrong-moscow-failures-in-ukraine-dara-massicot
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 08, 2023, 12:36:34 PM
Interesting article about recent Ukrainian responses to corruption allegations.

https://cepa.org/article/ukraines-war-of-no-return/

One indicative excerpt:

QuoteThe super-wealthy class of wealthy Russians, the so-called oligarchs, have their counterparts in Ukraine too. Their economic influence, won in the chaos of Soviet collapse, remains. 

Every measure of public opinion suggests Ukrainians have had enough. In an eye-catching finding last summer, polling by the International Republican Institute discovered that (perhaps predictably) the greatest concern for the population over the next decade was to restore Ukraine's territorial integrity (49%.) But almost the same number, 48%, said they wanted to eradicate graft. 

So the scandals around various Ukrainian government offices in recent weeks have not surprised Ukrainians, but it is likely to have generated deep anger.

Corruption in most countries is like weeds--not easy to clean up, but the hardest part is staying focused on keeping the yard weed-free for a long time afterwards so that the roots finally start to dry up. 

The trick here is to try to be "good" rather than "great".  Places like the US, Canada, Australia and Western Europe tend to have less corruption than many other places in the world, but even they still have more than their fair share.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 08, 2023, 12:51:44 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2023, 06:21:55 PMgood bit here about 155mm shell production.

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023/02/06/the-us-effort-to-arm-ukraine-starts-in-scranton-pennsylvania/

That is an interesting article.  I was particularly struck by the excerpt below.  As with making masks, antibiotics, and lots of other things, we start to get into trade-offs between, "How do we get this the cheapest we can during non-emergency times?" and "How do we scale up production for our own use as quickly as we can during emergency times?"  If factory automation can help that, it's good to know!

QuoteBrig. Gen. Reim said that the new production line being built in Garland, Texas, will be mostly automated, with human workers mostly just performing inspections. "What you saw [in Scranton] was very manual, very labor intensive. It's kind of Korean War vintage," he said. On the newer lines, he said, converting production from one type of ammunition to another becomes simply a "software change."

But for now, the Scranton plant continues to slice, heat and shape steel rods into deadly weapons in much the way it has for decades.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 08, 2023, 01:26:20 PM
https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/2019118422/onderzoeksteam-mh17-poetin-speelde-actieve-rol-in-leveren-buk-raket : Putin played an active role in delivering Buk missiles.

The Joint Investigating Team MH-17 announced today that they have sufficient evidence that Putin personally authorized the delivery and use of the BUK that shot down MH17, and that once he's no longer president and have immunity, he may be persecuted.

During the press conference, the JIT played a telephone conversation between the assistant of the Russian Aksyonov, the so-called prime minister of Crimea, and someone else. That conversation followed an urgent request from Igor Girkin, the minister of defense of the Donetsk People's Republic, for proper anti-aircraft guns.

There are also tapped telephone conversations showing key Putin advisers meeting to discuss providing air support to Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. There is "concrete information" that that request was submitted to Putin himself and that he made a positive decision, says the JIT.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 08, 2023, 02:30:45 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 08, 2023, 09:41:09 AMVery good Newsweek op-ed on the importance of training and logistics in M1 (and other modern western tank) operations, and what happens when people using those tanks have only trained a few weeks or even months instead of years. Glenn Girona is a U.S. Army veteran and CRM program manager for UMGC Europe.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i-served-on-u-s-army-abrams-tanks-giving-them-to-ukraine-is-risky/ar-AA17eZ6f?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=9747b03c817141d2a69ecadeaf8f2d5a


The guy knows his stuff. That is for certain. I don't think he is wrong.

But I do wonder how the war factor plays-in. Training that takes a year in peacetime, might take much less time in war. In war, everyone, including the supporting bureaucracies and command structures are focused and move with urgency. I have seen this effect in person (in another place and time), and it is definitely a real thing. 

We have already seen this effect with Ukrainian uptake of other Western weapon systems, such as HIMARS and Gepards (albeit these systems have presumably easier training needs than M1s).

Along those same lines, it will be interesting to see how the Ukrainian Patriot deployments go.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 08, 2023, 07:01:51 PM
I wonder if esim should donate steel beasts for Ukraine training ?  Basically covers all the nato tanks.  Never operated and M1 or leopard in RL, but after years of steel beasts, it wouldn't take long.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 08, 2023, 07:22:13 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 08, 2023, 07:01:51 PMI wonder if esim should donate steel beasts for Ukraine training ?  Basically covers all the nato tanks.  Never operated and M1 or leopard in RL, but after years of steel beasts, it wouldn't take long.

It would require a monster load of dongles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 09, 2023, 08:27:45 AM
another failed assault.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1623636828795424771
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 09, 2023, 08:48:02 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 08, 2023, 02:30:45 PMThe guy knows his stuff. That is for certain. I don't think he is wrong. {etc}

Ah, good, I was hoping for some analysis from you!

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 08, 2023, 07:22:13 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 08, 2023, 07:01:51 PMI wonder if esim should donate steel beasts for Ukraine training ?  Basically covers all the nato tanks.  Never operated and M1 or leopard in RL, but after years of steel beasts, it wouldn't take long.

It would require a monster load of dongles.

I foresaw the dongles coming.

.........
.....

...um. That sounded better in my head before I typed it out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 09, 2023, 08:52:35 AM
Meanwhile, following up an earlier comment, I asked someone on our county industrial board if they'd heard any chatter about the local munitions factory perhaps revving up again. On the contrary, the final disassembly, and sale of factory lands, has commenced.

I learned (what I then recalled hearing back at the time though I had forgotten) that the munitions factory was going along fine until it was shuttered by the Obama administration in order to consolidate its production capacity elsewhere (at Redstone, if I recall correctly...?)

As I quipped to my source, don't worry, no doubt the Russians (and probably the Chinese now) still have a nuke aimed at the site. ;)  :HideEyes:

Updated to clarify: I don't think I have a criticism of that consolidation plan by the prior administration; I certainly don't know enough about the details to have an opinion one way or another. I know there are logistic pros and cons either way about centralizing or decentralizing production areas. I only referenced Obama as a general timeframe for the decision and the start of implementation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 09, 2023, 02:46:36 PM
Yeah.  Hindsight in these things is always 20/20.

It's kinda like with Texas utilities:  You can choose between making electrical supplies weather-proof and paying more for something that might never happen or you can choose to go with what's certainly cheapest for the immediate future but might not work so well. 

I don't know that anybody on either side foresaw the logistical challenges of a High-Intensity Conflict like has played out in Ukraine.  It'll be interesting to see how Western democracies choose to navigate that balancing act five years after the Ukrainian War ends.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 09, 2023, 04:24:37 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 09, 2023, 02:46:36 PMI don't know that anybody on either side foresaw the logistical challenges of a High-Intensity Conflict like has played out in Ukraine.  It'll be interesting to see how Western democracies choose to navigate that balancing act five years after the Ukrainian War ends.

I think the answer is "yes and no".

Fifteen years ago, few in the West (with the possible exception of the Israelis), was thinking long drawn out artillery war.

The working assumption was that high intensity conflict would be a mix of "Red Storm Rising" and the First Persian Gulf War. The idea was that air power and precision guided munitions would paralyze artillery's effectiveness. Speed and hitting power were going to win the day.

Any military planners who were thinking or talking about a long drawn out artillery war, were drowned out by the politics of it. There was thinking that a war in Korea might devolve into an artillery war. But artillery duels aren't sexy, and what government would want to invest in tons and tons of old fashioned artillery rounds, when precision munitions were thing that got everyone excited.

But what we have in Ukraine is an operational situation less like Desert Storm's "Phase Line Bullet", and more like 1918's Battle of Soissons. As several of us have pointed out on this thread, there are so many parallels to WWI it is crazy. 

One of those parallels is artillery logistics. Pre-WWI doctrine was all about light, quickly deployed fast guns; like the French 75. But once the sides entrenched, it quickly became apparent, the big guns were really the "King of Battle." In the first year of WWI, all of the sides had trouble keeping their guns fed. Lack of shells even caused a scandal in Britain, and the the British artillery shell crisis contributed to the fall of the government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_Crisis_of_1915 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_Crisis_of_1915)

So just like in 1915, we see both sides scrambling to try and figure out how they can get more artillery rounds.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 09, 2023, 04:30:15 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 08, 2023, 07:22:13 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 08, 2023, 07:01:51 PMI wonder if esim should donate steel beasts for Ukraine training ?  Basically covers all the nato tanks.  Never operated and M1 or leopard in RL, but after years of steel beasts, it wouldn't take long.

It would require a monster load of dongles.

Haha, I should have saw that joke from grogs past coming, we'll played.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on February 09, 2023, 08:28:33 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 08, 2023, 11:34:34 AMinteresting, I'm reading the same book right now.
anywho...

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/what-russia-got-wrong-moscow-failures-in-ukraine-dara-massicot

Well done article and a great job breaking down the analysis. Dara is a good follow on twitter.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 10, 2023, 12:45:43 AM
attention nerds!  :tophat:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FokNxF6WIAAm1VP?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1623857574679392257
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 10, 2023, 07:27:36 AM
Quote from: GroggyGrognard2022 on February 09, 2023, 08:28:33 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 08, 2023, 11:34:34 AMinteresting, I'm reading the same book right now.
anywho...

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/what-russia-got-wrong-moscow-failures-in-ukraine-dara-massicot

Well done article and a great job breaking down the analysis. Dara is a good follow on twitter.

Yep.  I rearlly could not picture what went so wrong with the Russians' initial attack until I read this.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 10, 2023, 08:04:23 AM
what the brochure says:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoiyTjpX0AALQMm?format=jpg&name=large)

what reality is:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoiyUbQXsAE9x10?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 10, 2023, 08:26:30 AM
To be fair, that design is one big shell trap for creating hammer throws. There wasn't a penetration at the point examined.

Actually, looking at both photos, there's a small hole underneath the crosshairs of the undamaged photo! I wonder what that's for...? Wait, is that the pipe hole for the photos we saw last year, where tankers were cooking food in a makeshift cylinder grill??
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 10, 2023, 08:28:53 AM
Meanwhile, in breaking news, Russia temporarily runs out of prisoners or something!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-wagner-mercenary-group-says-it-s-no-longer-recruiting-convicts-this-may-signal-a-shift-in-strategy/ar-AA17i5Qa?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=d1ea8a64027a4993ac6ab967d92514a4

Considering Russian history, I'm sure this will be quite temporary...  :evil:  :HideEyes:

"Summon the ghost of Beria! We need two million prisoners in the gulags by next year, for some cough intense lumberjack training!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on February 10, 2023, 08:29:04 AM
Is it me or do all tanks look nice and shiny albeit maybe a bit muddy when they are alive but as soon as they die they instantly turn into rust?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 10, 2023, 08:29:42 AM
fire tends to do that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 10, 2023, 09:15:58 AM
I feel like the guy in that pic has killed many Russians wearing those Adidas.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 10, 2023, 09:44:47 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 10, 2023, 09:15:58 AMI feel like the guy in that pic has killed many Russians wearing those Adidas.

I'm pretty sure that those are Pumas. 

The shoes, not the tank.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 10, 2023, 09:52:43 AM
Pumas look like this.

(https://images.puma.com/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto,b_rgb:fafafa,w_600,h_600/global/374915/01/sv03/fnd/PNA/fmt/png/Suede-Classic-XXI-Men's-Sneakers)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 10, 2023, 11:06:19 AM
Dang, you're right!  I should've used some Google fu before going all smart-ass.   

:submarine:

Best pair of soccer shoes I ever owned was a pair of Puma Kings that I bought in the summer of 1987.  I can remember all sorts of obscure song lyrics from bands like Heart and Jefferson Starship, why can't I remember what the Puma logo looked like in the 80s?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 10, 2023, 11:16:16 AM
That's why I love this place...we go from tank armor discussions to sneakers in under a minute.

Full disclosure: I have never owned a pair of Pumas.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 10, 2023, 11:47:09 AM
Me either, I'm a Converse guy. And I've killed many a Happy Hour in them but no tanks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 10, 2023, 12:07:59 PM
^yet
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 10, 2023, 02:57:04 PM
True. You never know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 10, 2023, 03:51:20 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 10, 2023, 11:16:16 AMThat's why I love this place...we go from tank armor discussions to sneakers in under a minute.

I was fully expecting a snapshot of knit-wool Puma tank IFV house slippers. We have seen precendents along that line!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 10, 2023, 04:22:20 PM
Not Puma IFV but bear with me.

(https://cdn.thisiswhyimbroke.com/thumb/tank-slippers_400x333.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 11, 2023, 01:17:28 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 10, 2023, 04:22:20 PMNot Puma IFV but bear with me.

(https://cdn.thisiswhyimbroke.com/thumb/tank-slippers_400x333.jpg)

Agreed, not Puma but I don't think Bear either. Looks intimidating, yes, but likely just your regular household Maus (Mus Musculus Pzkpwf VIII).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2023, 03:47:23 AM
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-storm-before-the-calm?sd=pf
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 11, 2023, 04:44:20 PM
I make it a point to never try destroying tanks in anything less formal than wingtips.  You've got to dress for the job you want, and not the job you have.

Speaking of which, Gus, do you know if they make those slippers in an American half-track version?  Half-tracks always seemed really cool to me, although I have no idea how much they were actually used in WW2...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 11, 2023, 05:03:41 PM
They do not...I looked. Looks like WWII-inspired tanks only.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sigwolf on February 11, 2023, 05:37:08 PM
Well, if you're lounging around in tank slippers, you may get thirsty...

(https://i.etsystatic.com/18415996/r/il/b6472d/4139130653/il_794xN.4139130653_18d8.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2023, 10:39:42 PM
pretty good interview

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2023, 02:51:34 AM
 :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1624600024578502656
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2023, 02:51:34 PM
the second batch of Bradleys has arrived.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1624815487585484807
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 13, 2023, 08:34:34 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 11, 2023, 05:03:41 PMThey do not...I looked. Looks like WWII-inspired tanks only.

True, but when they aren't being worn, they look like an open-top cupola for a tracked artillery system! So there's that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 13, 2023, 08:37:13 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2023, 02:51:34 PMthe second batch of Bradleys has arrived.

Aw, man, that video was flagged for "sensitive content", and I feel gypped! -- I expected to see a Bradely running over a camel several times, while offloading at the German port, and dragging it off! Or maybe vice versa!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 13, 2023, 09:27:43 AM
^Remember what happens when you mess with camels in Russia  :TimeOut:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 13, 2023, 10:04:39 AM
.......you and the camels get diseases?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 13, 2023, 11:24:16 AM
No the camel kills you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 13, 2023, 12:08:24 PM
You have to be tough to be a camel in Russia. You have to be CAREFUL if you are a sheep in Russia.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2023, 12:36:36 PM
the chechins prefer goats.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 13, 2023, 02:46:10 PM
The goats' smaller cloven hooves slip into boots more easily that way.  But it's the tall goats who have to worry the most.

Those camels with their HEAT (Humpin' Explosive Anti Tank) weapons are tough.  I heard that the composite armor is hard to mount correctly but, when mounted correctly, it at least lets a Bradley survive the first camel attack about 70% of the time.

The camels will shred a Humvee, though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 13, 2023, 02:52:07 PM
Oh, right! -- I forgot that the 'punch the camel and find out' video was from Russia!

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 13, 2023, 02:46:10 PMThe camels will shred a Humvee, though.

My current Sunday School teacher was a special forces communications regiment major during a lot of desert warfare in the past few decades before he mustered out, and I'll have to run this whole part of the thread past him next time I see him. He might legitimately have stories!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2023, 04:06:18 PM
is that the teacher you learned brevity from?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 13, 2023, 05:39:05 PM
Learning brevity!?!?
That soul of wit sailed away,
many years ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 13, 2023, 06:10:46 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2023, 10:54:59 PMthe guy is a misinformation mouthpiece that does nothing but gaslight.
he should be called out as such.

Didn't that asshole suggest that Canada be taken over - on the flimsiest of pretenses? Like WTF?

That guy is payrolled by russians and I hope there will be a day that sees him behind bars.
Meanwhile Dominion Voting's case against FOX proceeds and God willing (the fair and just God), will bankrupt FOX and hopefully Murdoch too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 13, 2023, 06:20:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2023, 08:58:50 PMI shit you not, Windy was msg me from Utah after he saw some A-10s playing overhead.  I told him not to fuck with any colored globes or cylinders he sees for exactly this reason.

LoL, keep that up Tucker. I was IN Tuscon... ARIZONA. And then outside in a nearby National Park... perfectly safe. The only brightly colored objects of suspicion I saw outside were boxes of *cough* authentic Chinese Jade.

Further, the only thing I saw from Utah, was several hot blondes who came into the booth looking for ammolite.

Oh and I want to say the people of Tuscon are friendly and polite as fuck.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 13, 2023, 06:23:21 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 10, 2023, 08:29:42 AMfire tends to do that.

Anyone who doesn't know that obviously never overheated a cast iron frying pan over an open fire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2023, 06:43:34 PM
opps, when you said A-10s my mind thought Utah.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 13, 2023, 07:09:46 PM
Meanwhile, some new advice from the US State Department: GTFO of Russia now, hurry!  :shocked:  :HideEyes:

https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-travel-february-12-2023/

I feel like this may not bode well.

QuoteA day after the State Department issued the warning that includes mention of the terror threat, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service was cited by Russian state media as saying it has received "credible information" of an alleged U.S. military plot to recruit ISIS-linked jihadists to "carry out terrorist attacks in Russia."

The spy service claimed that 60 terrorists with combat experience in the Middle East were picked in January and are undergoing a "fast-track training course" at a U.S. military base in Syria, where they're being instructed in "subversive methods" and on how to make improvised explosives.

It claimed that "in the near future," small groups of these terrorists would be deployed to Russia, tasked with attacking diplomats, civil servants, law enforcement agents, and military personnel.

The State Department didn't respond to a request for comment by press time.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov downplayed the advisory, telling reporters in Moscow on Feb. 13 that the U.S. State Department's alert is "something we've heard in the past—it's not new."

The travel advisory level for Russia has been at level four, "Do Not Travel," since shortly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine nearly a year ago.

Relations between the two countries have slumped to their lowest point since the Cold War amid what Russian President Vladimir Putin describes as a "special military operation" to remove from power what he says is a "Nazi" regime in Kyiv that was becoming increasingly hostile to Moscow.

Peskov also addressed the warning to U.S. citizens that they might be conscripted and forced to fight in the war.

"The fact that citizens with dual citizenship are mentioned there ... these citizens for us are, first of all, citizens of Russia, regardless of what [other] citizenship they have," Peskov said, according to the Anadolu Agency, a Turkish state-run media outlet.

The spokesperson denied that a second round of mobilization was looming while also addressing the elevated terror threat in the context of Putin's public engagements.

"The security of the president ... is provided at the proper level, taking into account all the risks and dangers," Peskov said, adding that Putin's public appearances would not be curtailed despite the presence of a heightened risk of terror attacks, according to the Anadolu Agency.

Epoch Times reporting, sources for Peskov below:

https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2023/02/13/kremlin-says-us-calls-for-citizens-to-leave-russia-nothing-new

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/13/us-warns-citizens-to-leave-russia-citing-draft-security-risks-a80208

The Russian FIS rumor (politely putting it) about ISIS-recruitment comes from TASS (as you might expect): https://tass.com/defense/1575451
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 13, 2023, 08:50:00 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 13, 2023, 06:43:34 PMopps, when you said A-10s my mind thought Utah.

TBH, having never seen modern submunitions other than on twitter, I wouldn't know one unless it said DANGER on it.  :Hug: 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 14, 2023, 08:29:31 AM
I don't know anything about "The Moscow Times", but goodbye to a (relatively) elite Naval infantry unit I guess!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/elite-russian-marine-unit-massacred-near-ukraine-s-vuhledar/ar-AA17t1Ns?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d810e7ca1b814809b298c53ff2c0b741

QuoteAn elite Russian naval infantry unit made up of mostly mobilized troops has suffered a crushing defeat near the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, Russian mediareported Monday, citing one of the survivors.

The 5,000-strong 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade has been "nearly destroyed" after it lost up to 300 marines per day in Russia's assault on the coal-mining town, according tocomments by the Ukrainian defense forces to Politico on Sunday.

A surviving marine who spoke with the 7x7 regional news site said the losses were so severe that one landing assault company had only eight men remaining, while many others were taken prisoner.

"Those who survived were said to be deserters," the unnamed marine was quoted as saying, estimating the brigade's losses at 500 or more men killed.

Citing his commander, the marine told 7x7 that the brigade — nearly 90% of whom were recently mobilized soldiers — did not expect to return to Russia alive or unscathed.

"I wish I had been taken prisoner and never returned," he added, complaining about the officers' treatment of their soldiers.

The assault began on Jan. 23, the surviving marine told 7x7.

Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that its forces had "neutralized" Ukrainian soldiers and military hardware near Vuhledar last week.

That claim drew ridicule from Russian pro-war military bloggers for repeating the mistakes of past failed offensives and dented their belief in the military's capacity to mount a widely reported large-scale offensive.

The Russian Pacific Fleet's 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade made headlines in November after accusing its commander of causing massive losses in an assault near the eastern city of Donetsk.

Russia's Defense Ministry issued a rare statement at the time denying the unit's charges. The surviving marine told 7x7 on Monday that the brigade commander gave them a "strict reprimand" for airing its accusations in public.

The 155th brigade had to undergo three waves of restaffing after suffering defeats in Ukraine, Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskiy, the spokesman for the regional chapter of Ukraine's defense forces, told Politico.

The marine who described the assault on Vuhledar to 7x7 said his command was "bringing in new" soldiers, many of whom are killed on the battlefield.

The interview with Politico can be found here: https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-may-have-lost-an-entire-elite-brigade-near-a-coal-mining-town-in-donbas-ukraine-says/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 14, 2023, 10:42:41 AM
The historical conquests of Russia are watered with the blood of its young men.  They treat their younger generation the way many of us would treat hamburgers meat at a BBQ.  It's all about the end product.

I know little about the people or the culture.  But it seems to me that the pride the Russians take in their Patriotic Wars is both a tragedy and a travesty.

This time around, the only Nazis worth fighting are in their heads.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 14, 2023, 11:16:09 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/germany-to-restart-production-of-gepard-ammunition-for-ukraine-minister-says/ar-AA17sIER?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d8b85d54b14448128ba597fb61c1ffcc (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/germany-to-restart-production-of-gepard-ammunition-for-ukraine-minister-says/ar-AA17sIER?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d8b85d54b14448128ba597fb61c1ffcc)

ground based 'brrraaaaap' AFV gets more juice.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 14, 2023, 12:02:18 PM
Russian offensive in Vuhledar (SW of Donetsk) is failing in a big way.

Intensive fighting, heavy casualties, right now.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/like-turkeys-at-a-shooting-range-mauling-of-russian-forces-in-donetsk-hotspot-may-signal-problems-to-come/ar-AA17qxND?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6dc728e17c744cdaa8e5a63fc9fd28bd (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/like-turkeys-at-a-shooting-range-mauling-of-russian-forces-in-donetsk-hotspot-may-signal-problems-to-come/ar-AA17qxND?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6dc728e17c744cdaa8e5a63fc9fd28bd)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 14, 2023, 01:24:27 PM
the videos I've seen are beyond graphic.  :evil:
that 155th brigade referenced in the article has now been reconstituted three times.
in one of the more gruesome clips a bmp backs over a guy and then drives forward with the body dragging behind it because the torso was caught in the rear sprocket.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 14, 2023, 02:10:20 PM
so on this valentines day I'll just say...

roses are red

violets are blue

if you support russia, fuck you

 :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 14, 2023, 02:57:49 PM
Quote from: Windigo on February 14, 2023, 11:16:09 AMhttps://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/germany-to-restart-production-of-gepard-ammunition-for-ukraine-minister-says/ar-AA17sIER?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d8b85d54b14448128ba597fb61c1ffcc (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/germany-to-restart-production-of-gepard-ammunition-for-ukraine-minister-says/ar-AA17sIER?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d8b85d54b14448128ba597fb61c1ffcc)

ground based 'brrraaaaap' AFV gets more juice.

As I recall, a substantial number of Geps are being negotiated by someone (Germany?) from Syria or somewhere over there, to go to Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 14, 2023, 03:24:36 PM
Saying the Russians are being shot like turkeys is an insult to turkeys everywhere. As a guy who's been on the receiving end of an angry turkey I can assure you, they know how to fight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 14, 2023, 04:09:59 PM
the only Arab country to currently use Gepards is Jordan. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 14, 2023, 06:06:55 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1625591585948962816
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 14, 2023, 08:44:48 PM
The blood being spilled is horrific - I pity the troops being chewed up on both sides. And that's really saying something because fuck Russia for starting this war in the first place. Total insanity.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 14, 2023, 11:35:06 PM
I agree. One man's vanity and greed can cost tens of thousands of lives if Free People allow them to take, and keep, their power from them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 15, 2023, 10:04:42 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 14, 2023, 04:09:59 PMthe only Arab country to currently use Gepards is Jordan. 

Thanks! -- maybe that's what I saw, but I can't find the reference again after poking around this morning.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 15, 2023, 12:08:00 PM
Earlier today in Brussels, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace estimates 97% of Russia's army is in Ukraine. (I suppose he means dedicated to the cough special operation, not necessarily in Uk or Uk-claimed territory.)

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-64634760
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on February 15, 2023, 12:09:22 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 15, 2023, 10:04:42 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 14, 2023, 04:09:59 PMthe only Arab country to currently use Gepards is Jordan. 

Thanks! -- maybe that's what I saw, but I can't find the reference again after poking around this morning.
Jordan got 60 from the Dutch after they retired them.  Qatar is supposed to get 15.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 15, 2023, 05:34:31 PM
Russians near Alaska and other spots way far north:

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-bomber-jets-intercepted-by-norad-near-alaska-2023-02-15/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 15, 2023, 10:52:50 PM
Looking for their lost balloons perhaps? Sorry Ivan, we now have a, 'No Returns' policy in effect.  :grin:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 16, 2023, 01:10:30 AM
Your Friendly Z-Guide To War Crimes, chapter 276: Killing Medics and Firefighters.

1. Shell / bomb at a civilian target
2. Wait until medics and firefighters arrive
3. Shell / bomb the same target again.

Done countless times, this time caught on a video. Who said they are all untrained? Not so.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-russian-double-strike-that-killed-a-u-s-medic-in-ukraine-they-had-us-in-sight-442cd058?st=sei5wqyg3ud5cd6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on February 16, 2023, 03:16:36 AM
I don't know the validity of this, but I found it interesting regarding resources, sanctions and the like.

Interesting if not wholly, accurately informative.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 16, 2023, 08:20:27 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 15, 2023, 05:34:31 PMRussians near Alaska and other spots way far north:

Various articles (including this one), say it's normal for the Russians to probe the neutral zone (I forget its technical name) several times of year, to practice drills and test response times. We knew this set was coming, and Russia publicized it, too. Some nice photos of a classic Tu-95, and... what's the nickname of the Tu-160, the Swan?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 16, 2023, 12:20:42 PM
white swan iirc.  still not as good as a B-1b.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 16, 2023, 02:38:01 PM
Another senior Russian official falls out of a window.

Don't know how Putin thinks Russia is going to be an empire again if he can't even fix the windows...;)

https://www.newsweek.com/marina-yankina-russian-defense-official-window-death-1781713 (https://www.newsweek.com/marina-yankina-russian-defense-official-window-death-1781713)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 16, 2023, 03:14:03 PM
That's the Russian version of a, 'Golden Parachute'.  :doh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 16, 2023, 04:13:24 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 16, 2023, 03:14:03 PMThat's the Russian version of a, 'Golden Parachute'.  :doh:

This song is popular in Russia these days  :evil:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 16, 2023, 05:38:03 PM
^Damn it's been a while since I've seen a mention of Helloween  :Nerd: ...great thread for them to pop up in.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 16, 2023, 07:21:32 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on February 16, 2023, 01:10:30 AMYour Friendly Z-Guide To War Crimes, chapter 276: Killing Medics and Firefighters.

1. Shell / bomb at a civilian target
2. Wait until medics and firefighters arrive
3. Shell / bomb the same target again.

Done countless times, this time caught on a video. Who said they are all untrained? Not so.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-russian-double-strike-that-killed-a-u-s-medic-in-ukraine-they-had-us-in-sight-442cd058?st=sei5wqyg3ud5cd6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Russians perfected that in Syria, double tapping bomb sites to get the rescue workers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 16, 2023, 09:04:22 PM
Don't be such a sucker.  Those are NAZI Rescue Workers!!

 :tophat:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 16, 2023, 10:34:21 PM
And Drug Addicts. Don't forget the Drug Addicts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 17, 2023, 12:47:24 AM
 :huh:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1626186916235481094
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 17, 2023, 08:32:59 AM
Yeesh, that track looks like a Bigfoot clan threw a kegger and produced a lot of new little foots -- several years in a row!

Not entirely relevant to this thread, tho, despite the (perhaps understandably) short-sighted hashtag appeal.

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 16, 2023, 12:20:42 PMwhite swan iirc.  still not as good as a B-1b.

Ah! -- ironically, I think I rejected that being the proper title for thinking I was mixing it up in my memory with a classic Ace Combat boss!  :grin: https://acecombat.fandom.com/wiki/White_Bird_(Part_II)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 17, 2023, 08:37:12 AM
While looking for the proper name of that AC5 boss, I discovered the White Swan is playable in one of the modern Ace Combat games!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 17, 2023, 09:35:19 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1626584861300633600

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 17, 2023, 06:28:25 PM
From the Atlantic:

'...the Russian army today is well-nigh incapable of conducting modern combined-arms warfare at scale'

'...the Russian military is now a pre-1918 army'


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/russia-ukraine-war-wwii-comparison/673053/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 17, 2023, 07:25:20 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 17, 2023, 12:47:24 AM:huh:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1626186916235481094

Investing in infrastructure is so 2008...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on February 17, 2023, 08:37:45 PM
Putin's legs twitching and spasming in a way that resembles Parkinsons or possibly amphetamine usage?

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1626628669476114432

Reminds me of that famous clip of Hitler at the Olympics...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on February 17, 2023, 09:07:18 PM
His hands were moving too.  I wonder if this is a symptom of some drug he's taking or a medical condition.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 17, 2023, 10:56:38 PM
Probably an exercise that enables him to win in every Hockey Game he's ever played. Or else his shorts are way too tight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on February 18, 2023, 10:23:15 AM
It looks like pretty severe Restless Leg Syndrome. He could have Tardive Dyskinesia from use of various psychotropic meds or it could be from any or even several of a number of diseases such as neuropathy or even advanced renal failure. With symptoms that bad he might indeed be quite ill.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 18, 2023, 10:38:04 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on February 17, 2023, 09:07:18 PMHis hands were moving too.  I wonder if this is a symptom of some drug he's taking or a medical condition.

It can't be stress.  Everything is still going as planned :cool:.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 18, 2023, 10:58:45 AM
I had many patients with TD from their meds. It'd be very unusual to have only the feet and legs involved, with the hands moving less so and no facial tic. Unless he's able to control some of the involuntary movements somehow himself, I have no idea how he could do this. Poor circulation could cause leg discomfort and moving them that way may help but most likely there would be swelling of his feet and ankles at least. It could be a general sign of nerves and uneasiness being in front of cameras, self-conscious of his poor health appearance. Or it could the music was grooving and he was feeling the beat.  :ymca:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 18, 2023, 05:59:56 PM
 :Loser:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1626904507132116993
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on February 18, 2023, 06:52:54 PM
Holy tinnitus, batman!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 18, 2023, 08:25:08 PM
He's probably just got "Oh what a beautiful morning!" playing in his hand.  I don't know anything about the source cited above, but this is the kind of stuff that feels like it'd be very easy to fake on the Internet unless you saw a lengthier clip that showed their faces, etc.

I'm not saying it is fake news.  I just don't begin to have the time to research it.  I'm familiar with the line of thinking, I just have a hard time separating fact from fiction on a lot of this stuff.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 18, 2023, 10:40:53 PM
why bother faking something like this?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 18, 2023, 11:50:47 PM
well theres this perspective.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1627048774164963330
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 19, 2023, 10:44:44 AM
some Kofman perspective.

https://en.rattibha.com/thread/1627309427907854336
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 19, 2023, 11:07:00 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1627158314286194688
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 19, 2023, 11:45:46 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 18, 2023, 10:40:53 PMwhy bother faking something like this?

Promoting perceptions of Putin's unfitness for command or his pending demise, I would think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 19, 2023, 12:31:41 PM
I think theyre doing that well enough on their own.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 19, 2023, 02:54:52 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1627215012556156929

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpUg90AXoAA8mJO?format=jpg&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpUg90gXoAAgUY-?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 19, 2023, 03:14:44 PM
^OMG who put the Titanic theme over those clips?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 19, 2023, 03:21:27 PM
no idea, I never watch them with sound on because the music always sucks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 19, 2023, 04:08:02 PM
I think having that music in that particular clip was no accident.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 19, 2023, 05:12:08 PM
In Ukrainian Russia, gathering to drink vodka lits you!

https://twitter.com/f_o_r_Ukraine/status/1625585578967289857?s=20
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 19, 2023, 05:13:07 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 19, 2023, 04:08:02 PMI think having that music in that particular clip was no accident.

That high-school slide-whistle performance over the video was AMAZING!

And their hearts indeed went on, and on, and on, over here, over there, in the middle of the square...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 19, 2023, 05:59:46 PM
Meanwhile...

Orks: IS NEW UNBEATABLE TANK!
Uks: No, not a tank.
Orks: IS NEW UNBEATABLE BISTRO TANK!
Uks: No, still not a tank.
Orks: IS NEW UNBEATABLE --

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/115ajvi/ukrainian_air_assault_forces_describe_taking_out/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Uks: No.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2023, 06:51:50 AM
didnt expect Biden in Kiev this morning.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 20, 2023, 09:34:41 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2023, 06:51:50 AMdidnt expect Biden in Kiev this morning.

No one expects the... um... y'know, the thing!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 20, 2023, 10:56:05 AM
Unannounced apparently, except for the Russians they told to avoid any difficulties. Still air raid sirens were going off. Don't know what that was about?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2023, 11:02:15 AM
theater most likely as no one seemed phased by them.  still a great middle finger to russia whos state media is predictably melting down over this.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 20, 2023, 11:06:30 AM
Kyiv had been scheduled to receive more missile attacks this morning (or so I read at one of the news outlets). Biden's visit probably delayed those.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 20, 2023, 11:12:50 AM
Meanwhile, Britain announces plans to supply long-range missiles to Ukraine.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2023/02/17/ukraine-must-be-given-advanced-nato-standard-capabilities-rishi-sunak-says/

The plans aren't set in stone yet (as far as I can tell) from the article. No idea about the political slant of the National News, nor how that might be affecting their coverage.

QuoteUK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called for a Nato charter to guarantee support for Ukraine, telling an international conference that Britain would be a supplier of long-range missiles to aid a counter-offensive by Kyiv.

"We need to do more to bolster Ukraine's long-term security," he said at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

"We must give them the advanced Nato-standard capabilities that they need for the future.

"And we must demonstrate that we'll remain by their side, willing and able to help them defend their country again and again."

The Prime Minister said he hoped the coming Nato summit in Vilnius would build long-term assurances. "Our aim should be to forge a new charter in Vilnius to help protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression," he said.

Mr Sunak said Ukraine's forces had reached an inflection point in the battle against Russian troops and called on fellow leaders at the summit to "double down" on military support for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

It was important to ensure a "decisive advantage on the battlefield", he said.

"That would be my pitch to everyone - do what we are doing, join the countries that are providing that support, intensifying and accelerating it now," he said. "I think the alternative is far worse.

"We are all united in wanting Ukraine to win and if there's an opportunity to do that sooner, and take advantage of the moment that we have, why would we not seize it? What are we waiting for?"

The idea of a new charter or framework to sustain and build the alliance with Ukraine was welcomed by Jens Stoltenberg, Nato's secretary general, in his remarks to the Munich Security conference on Saturday. He said President Vladimir Putin was preparing Russia for a long war by building up his military to sustain the fighting.

"There are no indications he has changed his ambitions," Mr Stoltenberg was expected to tell the Munich conference later Saturday, according to a text of his remarks.

"He is mobilising hundreds of thousands of troops, increasingly putting the Russian economy on a war footing and reaching out to other authoritarian regimes, such as Iran and North Korea, to get more weapons."

In her panel the EU president Ursula von der Leyen suggested delivery of the Covid vaccine could serve as a model for how to rapidly expand armaments production to boost Ukraine's arsenal and those of its donor countries.

"We could think of, for example, advanced purchase agreements that give the defence industry the possibility to invest in production lines now to be faster and to increase the amount they can deliver," she said.

Officials warn Ukraine is currently using ammunition faster than Western countries are able to produce and supply it.

"It is now the time to speed up the production and to scale up the production of standardised products [like ammunition] that Ukraine needs desperately," she said.

In an apparent attempt to encourage others to offer long-term training to Kyiv's armed forces, Mr Sunak added Ukrainians were fighting for the security of all nations.

"What is at stake in this war is even greater than the security and sovereignty of one nation. It's about the security and sovereignty of every nation," he added. "Because Russia's invasion, its abhorrent war crimes and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric are symptomatic of a broader threat to everything we believe in.

"When Putin started this war, he gambled that our resolve would falter. Even now he is betting we will lose our nerve. But we proved him wrong then, and we will prove him wrong now."

Beyond Nato considerations, Mr Sunak argued that securing a lasting peace for Ukraine would also require international law to be strengthened.

With the first anniversary of the conflict approaching, he will also press for a new plan to protect Ukraine's sovereignty in the future.

The intervention follows Mr Zelenskyy's visit to Britain, Paris and Brussels last week, when he made the case for fighter planes.

Mr Sunak used Mr Zelenskyy's visit to announce a two-pronged approach to support for Ukraine, offering military kit immediately to fend off a Russian offensive and preparing its forces for the longer term, but not the requested planes.

To coincide with the war leader's momentous trip, the UK government announced that Britain would extend its training mission — under which 10,000 Ukrainian troops have already come to the UK — to cover fighter jet pilots, ensuring Ukraine can defend its skies using "Nato tactics" in the future.

The training of pilots is expected to commence in the spring, according to Downing Street officials.

Updated: February 18, 2023, 1:27 PM {GMT}
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2023, 11:47:52 AM
not bad as Mondays go.  :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 20, 2023, 02:40:42 PM
If the UK is considering it... likely means they are already there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 20, 2023, 03:24:42 PM
Definitely did not expect a Biden visit to Kyiv. Nicely done.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2023, 04:01:31 PM
this will make JH cringe.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpbMjALWAAoyyCe?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 20, 2023, 04:03:40 PM
Quote from: Windigo on February 20, 2023, 02:40:42 PMIf the UK is considering it... likely means they are already there.

"considering" unpacking them. ;)

Wow, that barrel is sagging at the end! -- that thing will have to be replaced.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 20, 2023, 08:06:03 PM
Yup.  You're only going to fire one more bullet out of that.

It might be your last.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 20, 2023, 08:18:12 PM
I wonder exactly what medium-range missiles they might be talking about.  ATACMS would be the easiest to support logistically, I would think, with HIMARS launchers already in country and well-understood.  But I don't even know what else might be in the NATO arsenal.  It sounds like the US announced on 2/20/23 that they don't have enough ATACMS to make sending them to Ukraine useful, but I'm not sure how that works.

The ATACMS itself is getting long in the tooth (more than 30 years old now), but I have no idea what the status of its replacement program is.  With a range of only a little under 200 miles, I have no idea if or how the ATACMS might be used in any Taiwan conflict.  Going after Russian train depots 150 miles behind the front lines seems like a good use in Ukraine, even if we only commit 50 or 100 of them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 20, 2023, 09:09:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2023, 04:01:31 PMthis will make JH cringe.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpbMjALWAAoyyCe?format=jpg&name=large)


Yeah. That's FUBAR.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2023, 09:25:28 PM
QuoteATACMS would be the easiest to support logistically, I would think, with HIMARS launchers already in country and well-understood.  But I don't even know what else might be in the NATO arsenal

I would imagine that any NATO missile is going to be m270/Himars compatible because thats pretty much how NATO rolls.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 21, 2023, 12:09:25 AM
Yeah.  The ATACMS is the next step up in terms of ordinance for the HIMARS.  But it's unclear how many of them we have, much less how many we'd be willing to share with the Ukrainians.

The replacements for the ATACMS might be coming out sometime this year, or they might not.  The glacial pace of weapons production in the US seems a little confounding to me.  Not that it takes a while to ramp up manufacturing capacity, but that we only seemed to notice this problem starting a couple months ago...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2023, 12:22:23 AM
the military industrial complex isnt nearly as geared for mass production as many think it is.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 21, 2023, 08:03:13 AM
Quick summary of Putin's speech today :


We didn't start the fire
No, we didn't light it
But we tried to fight it


Putin said that Russia has done "everything possible" to resolve the conflict peacefully, and accused the West of turning a blind eye to "terrorist activity" in eastern Ukraine.
Putin also repeated the unsubstantiated claim that Ukraine was pushing to be provided with nuclear weapons, and doubled down on his framing of the invasion as a pre-emptive, defensive action.
He went on to double down on blaming the West for the war in Ukraine.
"I want to repeat: it was they who unleashed the war," said Putin. "And we used and continue to use force to stop it."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 21, 2023, 09:53:29 AM
^He called it a war, eh...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on February 21, 2023, 09:58:35 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 21, 2023, 12:09:25 AMYeah.  The ATACMS is the next step up in terms of ordinance for the HIMARS.  But it's unclear how many of them we have, much less how many we'd be willing to share with the Ukrainians.

The replacements for the ATACMS might be coming out sometime this year, or they might not.  The glacial pace of weapons production in the US seems a little confounding to me.  Not that it takes a while to ramp up manufacturing capacity, but that we only seemed to notice this problem starting a couple months ago...
Actually there is one between standard HIMARS rocket and ATACMs.  It's the GLSDB with a range of about 150 km (about double the standard HIMARS 80).  It was supposedly included in latest shipments to Ukraine.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htart/articles/20230209.aspx
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 21, 2023, 11:33:35 AM
A "leaked" Kremlin strategy document sets out plans to annex Belarus no later than 2030.

Not certain if I believe that this document is real or not, but it "feels" right.

If true, that makes Lukashenko the proverbial snail crawling on a razors edge.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/revealed-leaked-document-shows-how-russia-plans-to-take-over-belarus/ar-AA17Jsik?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=454ded251abe426497e98a3f49bc256c (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/revealed-leaked-document-shows-how-russia-plans-to-take-over-belarus/ar-AA17Jsik?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=454ded251abe426497e98a3f49bc256c)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 21, 2023, 12:44:27 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 21, 2023, 11:33:35 AMA "leaked" Kremlin strategy document sets out plans to annex Belarus no later than 2030.

Not certain if I believe that this document is real or not, but it "feels" right.

If true, that makes Lukashenko the proverbial snail crawling on a razors edge.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/revealed-leaked-document-shows-how-russia-plans-to-take-over-belarus/ar-AA17Jsik?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=454ded251abe426497e98a3f49bc256c (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/revealed-leaked-document-shows-how-russia-plans-to-take-over-belarus/ar-AA17Jsik?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=454ded251abe426497e98a3f49bc256c)

There were the official Editorials in various news outlets who congratulated Putin on his historical achievement of bringing Ukraine and Belarus back to Mother Russia, the day after he started his brutal invasion.

He really is in the business of annexing a number of independent countries with war and violence, in 2023. Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, ...

Let us see if he's stopped for good here. Or if he is to survive, regroup, and try again. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 21, 2023, 01:01:45 PM
One way or another, I don't think Putler will survive to try this again. He's in bad health and getting observably worse. (I doubt he goes near any windows nowadays either.  :evil: )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 21, 2023, 03:39:43 PM
So what do the learned minds here think the response in the West would/should be to China's providing, 'Lethal Assistance' to Putin for his war of Liberation from Nazism and Drug-Addiction in Ukraine, if such assistance occurs?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2023, 04:39:32 PM
it reduces chicom stockpiles and won't help the russians in the grand scheme of things.  it's also a good excuse for the west giving longer range weapons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 21, 2023, 05:43:14 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 21, 2023, 03:39:43 PMSo what do the learned minds here think the response in the West would/should be to China's providing, 'Lethal Assistance' to Putin for his war of Liberation from Nazism and Drug-Addiction in Ukraine, if such assistance occurs?

I'm game for full cutoff and eco sanctions of China.  I've been wanting to completely sever all ties with China any way, lethal arms to Russia is the perfect reason to make it happen.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 21, 2023, 06:16:09 PM
^How can we completely sever ties with China when they manufacture most of what we use every day?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 21, 2023, 06:26:29 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on February 21, 2023, 09:58:35 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 21, 2023, 12:09:25 AMYeah.  The ATACMS is the next step up in terms of ordinance for the HIMARS.  But it's unclear how many of them we have, much less how many we'd be willing to share with the Ukrainians.

The replacements for the ATACMS might be coming out sometime this year, or they might not.  The glacial pace of weapons production in the US seems a little confounding to me.  Not that it takes a while to ramp up manufacturing capacity, but that we only seemed to notice this problem starting a couple months ago...
Actually there is one between standard HIMARS rocket and ATACMs.  It's the GLSDB with a range of about 150 km (about double the standard HIMARS 80).  It was supposedly included in latest shipments to Ukraine.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htart/articles/20230209.aspx


I recall reading that too.  Just waiting for the Russians to notice when unprotected stuff way behind the line
starts to go boom.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 21, 2023, 06:29:29 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 21, 2023, 06:16:09 PM^How can we completely sever ties with China when they manufacture most of what we use every day?

Don't try and be a voice of reason Gussy. Not here! We dont need no stinking medications and iphones and steel and shit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2023, 06:45:36 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 21, 2023, 06:16:09 PM^How can we completely sever ties with China when they manufacture most of what we use every day?

well we could just make all that shit ourselves again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 21, 2023, 07:31:14 PM
For 20x as much as it costs Chinese slave labor to make :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 21, 2023, 07:53:03 PM
I suspect if we gave up our addiction to slave labor elsewhere, we might be motivated to get our economy under control here. Be that as it may -- it's only a suspicion, I'm certainly not an economist.

Quote from: Windigo on February 21, 2023, 06:29:29 PMDon't try and be a voice of reason Gussy. Not here! We dont need no stinking medications and iphones and steel and shit.

Can we buy medications somewhere without Fentanyl spikes? That would be nice.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on February 21, 2023, 08:41:00 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2023, 06:45:36 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 21, 2023, 06:16:09 PM^How can we completely sever ties with China when they manufacture most of what we use every day?

well we could just make all that shit ourselves again.

The word "just" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this sentence ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on February 21, 2023, 10:13:29 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2023, 06:45:36 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 21, 2023, 06:16:09 PM^How can we completely sever ties with China when they manufacture most of what we use every day?

well we could just make all that shit ourselves again.

Biden signing the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 started us down the path...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 21, 2023, 10:37:48 PM
Meanwhile, speaking of making things or not making things as the case may be:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/118jfkl/prigozhins_drama_continues_russian_mod_in_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

This seems to bode well?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2023, 11:00:38 PM
this tangent is another whole thread by itself.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 21, 2023, 11:13:51 PM
Interesting article on the GLSDB.  While I love the notion of longer range, as well as the ability to launch 6 at a time, it feels to me like a non-cheap weapon.  If I read the link you posted above right, the price for the extra 40-50 miles of range on the GLSDB is an 85% reduction in warhead size.

Being able to throw 37 pound warheads an extra 40 miles deeper behind enemy lines with a little more accuracy will certainly serve a purpose, and it'll be very useful for us to gather some concrete intel on real-world performance.  But I've got to think that there's a big difference between hitting a train (or a train station) with a 227-pound warhead versus a 37-pound warhead.  I'm out of my depth here, so all I can really do is speculate.

The West has shown a willingness to sacrifice as long as it doesn't cost us anything.  If China starts more obviously arming the Russians, we'll see how much resolve we find.  It's complicated by the fact that South America and Africa are both indifferent to the Russian invasion of Ukraine--not so much because they think it's a good thing, but because they can't figure out how it's any different than the last 15 episodes happening elsewhere in the world that the West managed to overlook with a deafening yawn.

India has become the leading importer of Russian gas.  While I think it's not a great choice, I can't exactly fault India for not feeling extroardinary gratitude to the English for 270+ years of colonial rule.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 21, 2023, 11:21:58 PM
China's not concerned about helping Russia. China's concerned about helping China. To that end, giving Lethal Aid to Putin in exchange for more of Russia's vast natural resources seems like a really good deal for them and something Mr. Peng would consider whether we like it or not. What would it take to stop him?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2023, 11:45:11 PM
Quoteit'll be very useful for us to gather some concrete intel on real-world performance.

actually no, the SDB has been operational since 2006.  the abilities of both systems are well known.
while it will be the proving ground for this combination, Im not to worried about the overall effectiveness.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 22, 2023, 01:39:04 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2023, 11:45:11 PM
Quoteit'll be very useful for us to gather some concrete intel on real-world performance.

actually no, the SDB has been operational since 2006.  the abilities of both systems are well known.
while it will be the proving ground for this combination, Im not to worried about the overall effectiveness.

You're right, I was getting confused about whether the GLSDB used SDB or SDB-2 warheads.  Upon further reading, it also turns out that the 37-pound warhead is apparently embedded in an AP-type round made to punch through up to six feet of concrete, but it can also carry the HE warhead mounted in the more traditional MLRS round fired by HIMARS.

I wonder if the Russians have learned the habit of storing their ammo in decentralized locations beyond the traditional range of HIMARS?  If so, the resulting friction is probably already figured into their logistical activities.  I also wonder how close the Russian trains are getting to the front these days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 23, 2023, 03:38:33 AM
https://www.bluesnews.com/s/257008/ukraine_s-atomic-heart-attack

The Government of Ukraine plans to petition Valve, Microsoft, and Sony to remove Atomic Heart from digital stores in Ukraine, and will ask platform holders to consider "limiting distribution" of the game in other countries. At heart of the matter are the new first-person shooter's Russian roots. There are allegations that sales of the game directly benefit the Russian government and that the game is possibly being used to harvest user data. Ukrainian tech website 'Dev.au' first reported on this, and PCGamesN has a statement in English directly from the Ukraine government:

    "Regarding the situation with the release of the game Atomic Heart, which has Russian roots and romanticises communist ideology and the Soviet Union, The Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine will send an official letter to Sony, Microsoft, and Valve requesting a ban on selling digital versions of this game in Ukraine," says Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation, Alex Bornyakov.

    "We also urge limiting the distribution of this game in other countries due to its toxicity, potential data collection of users, and the potential use of money raised from game purchases to conduct a war against Ukraine."

    "According to media reports, the game's development was funded by Russian enterprises," the statement continues. "Therefore, we call for all users worldwide to avoid this game. We also want to emphasise that the game developers have not publicly condemned the Putin regime and the bloody war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 23, 2023, 07:50:38 AM
Wow. I had been looking forward to Atomic Heart but this, and some less than stellar reviews, have put me off.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2023, 08:12:25 AM
All of the above strikes me as total bullshit. The developer is international with headquarters in Cyprus and the game has been in development since well before 2018. I haven't seen anything in any of the videos or press I've reviewed showing a blatant "romanticizing" of communist ideology or the Soviet Union. and quite frankly, so what if it does? We're back to banning things that don't align with a certain agenda on the basis that doing so makes it "toxic" and people can't f*cking think for themselves anymore.

Outrageous. As far as data harvesting and giving money to support the war, you better have definitive proof before making those allegations.

It overall appears to be a very good game. It's part of game pass and I will play it eventually. I guess that makes me a communist sympathizer. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 23, 2023, 08:29:00 AM
If there's one thing that game DOESN'T do, it's romanticize communist ideology and the Soviet Union. The whole point of the narrative of the game, almost constantly reinforced, is that romanticizing (and much moreso promoting and instituting) those things is (and was) a nightmarishly bad idea. It's practically like saying the Bioshock series (which it very intentionally resembles) romanticizes Randian positivism. If anything, communists in general and Soviets in particular might have a case for accusing the game of demonizing them unfairly! (Instead of only fairly demonizing them.  :knuppel2: )

Admittedly I haven't played the game, nor bought it, nor do I intend to. But I've seen enough gameplay and story footage to understand this is a crazy evaluation of the game. Less than 10 minutes should be sufficient.

As to the other potentially much worse technical accusations, I don't know anything about them. But I do know how stories work.  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2023, 09:42:43 AM
The more I ruminate on this, the angrier I get. A lot of people from a lot of different places worked really hard for a very long time on this game and stories like this pretty much destroy all those efforts veritably overnight. Not to pick on Gus, but look at his knee-jerk reaction...its "put him off". The same probably goes for thousands of others who have been exposed to this story. Once it is out there, the damage is done, regardless of its truth or falsity.

I am so hard-pressed to believe that the developers of this game were sitting around a table in a dark smoke-filled room raising a glass of vodka to the old regime and wondering out loud how they can help Putin restore Soviet glory. It is so far-fetched and sets such a dangerous precedent.

I guess we can no longer play Wolfenstein games because William Joseph "B.J." Blazkowicz is a Jew with ties to Israel, and well, Israel is an apartheid state and all things associated with it should be boycotted. Six Days in Fallujah!? Ban it! Limit its distribution! The American Marines are fighting terrorists in the Middle East who are Muslim and this is toxic. It promotes anti-Islamic sentiment and hatred and must be censored and cancelled.

Aren't the Ukrainians fighting for freedom against oppression from tyranny? What is the point of it all if in the pursuit of that noble cause the very freedoms they are fighting for get sacrificed?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 23, 2023, 10:30:51 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2023, 08:12:25 AMOutrageous.  As far as data harvesting and giving money to support the war, you better have definitive proof before making those allegations.

I don't know what the truth is.  These links (Ukrainian company website) give more info and some indications.  Not the definitive proof.

https://ain.capital/2023/01/25/russian-developers-of-atomic-heart-collect-gamers-data-for-the-fsb-via-its-website/
https://ain.capital/2023/01/17/atomic-heart-will-be-released-in-february-its-a-russian-game-backed-by-ex-gazprom/
https://ain.capital/2023/02/22/the-apolitical-russian-game-atomic-heart-makes-fun-of-the-killings-of-ukrainians/

Especially the indications in the 3rd link might seem to be quite far-fetched, but I understand that all this can be sensitive in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 23, 2023, 11:23:33 AM
I know nothing of the game but I am against, 'Knee-Jerk' reactions, they're usually wrong many times, picking on Gus, though it is kind of fun, and banning almost anything because of it's ideology or political view. Free Speach is NOT just for the side of the fence you are on.  :soapbox:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 23, 2023, 12:30:28 PM
Agreed on Free Speech.  I think we're missing an important distinction here that's at the heart of the critique for "cancel culture" and such phenomenon.  There's a difference between government making something illegal, versus private groups asking other private groups (firms or consumers) to boycott a product.  That doesn't make it right, but it does make it different.

Part of the problem right now is that so much of the news we are fed daily (by content publishers, internet algorithms and our own sharing habits) is either somewhat or entirely misleading.  We live in an age that cares more about news that spawns strong, visceral reactions than we care about about news that is truthful and factual. 

Media has never been perfect, but it's harder than it's ever been to validate what we read.  So we end up trusting the media sources we agree with most often, as opposed to the ones that seem to tell us the truth most often.

Jardhead's concerns are legit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 23, 2023, 12:41:49 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2023, 09:42:43 AMThe more I ruminate on this, the angrier I get. A lot of people from a lot of different places worked really hard for a very long time on this game and stories like this pretty much destroy all those efforts veritably overnight. Not to pick on Gus, but look at his knee-jerk reaction...its "put him off". The same probably goes for thousands of others who have been exposed to this story. Once it is out there, the damage is done, regardless of its truth or falsity.

I am so hard-pressed to believe that the developers of this game were sitting around a table in a dark smoke-filled room raising a glass of vodka to the old regime and wondering out loud how they can help Putin restore Soviet glory. It is so far-fetched and sets such a dangerous precedent.

I guess we can no longer play Wolfenstein games because William Joseph "B.J." Blazkowicz is a Jew with ties to Israel, and well, Israel is an apartheid state and all things associated with it should be boycotted. Six Days in Fallujah!? Ban it! Limit its distribution! The American Marines are fighting terrorists in the Middle East who are Muslim and this is toxic. It promotes anti-Islamic sentiment and hatred and must be censored and cancelled.

I get your frustration here, but we need to be careful about conflating various issues.  "Cancel culture" has a lot of problems, but among the biggest is the notion that words can be so traumatizing--so dangerous--that we are best served if we limit or prohibit their usage.  You see this lots of places (liberal universities get the most press, but they DO NOT have a monopoly on it).  The folks at FIRE (https://www.thefire.org/) articulate this better than I ever could.  If you're not already familiar with it, you should check it out sometime.

I think that's a different issue than whether the producers of this game have legitimate ties to pro-Putin interests.  We ought to be able to discuss that in a rational and fact-based manner, but even that seems to be getting harder.

QuoteAren't the Ukrainians fighting for freedom against oppression from tyranny? What is the point of it all if in the pursuit of that noble cause the very freedoms they are fighting for get sacrificed?

I'm vaguely reminded of Tipper Gore coming out against explicit lyrics in rock music in the late 80s as a similarly misguided idea. 

At this stage, I don't know the exact origins of these allegations in the first place.  Of course, when it comes to repressing basic freedoms of people during wartime, America has a history of being overzealous there too (think of Japanese-American internment camps as just one example).  So, if some Ukrainian interests are over-reacting to this game, I understand why.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2023, 01:06:44 PM
My daily go to game is world of tanks. at the start of the hostilities in the Ukraine that company, wargaming, made the decision to sell off all the assets that it had in Belarus and cut all ties with Russia and Belarus and split the company up into regional sections.  ot was a wise decision.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 23, 2023, 03:28:40 PM
I think virpil based in belorus did that as well.  When everything got weird for them, they moved assets to the west.  Now there's a US store.  The factory is still in belorus though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 23, 2023, 08:57:53 PM
Originally I was put off by some less than stellar reviews of Atomic Heart, even before this 'controversy' started.

I had Atomic Heart on my wish list for months but removed it in January as more reviewers were posting impressions of the final build along with parts of the game they did not enjoy, like the dialogue and other more minor things...but together, along with the 59.99 price was enough for me to not buy for now.

I am not a fan of cancel culture, but I am also not a fan of Russia right now.

The allegations put forth in the links from Pete, even if 1% true, don't sit well with me. So that was an additional set of reasons not to buy.

 :grumpy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 23, 2023, 09:26:07 PM
Has anyone looked into this "War of a Madman's Making" game I'm seeing?

That seems to have some suspect sources.  It's highly dressed in Soviet Era iconography and propaganda. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2023, 10:41:13 PM
so.....  one year on.

happy anniversary  :tanker1035:

 :sad:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 24, 2023, 07:27:41 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 23, 2023, 09:26:07 PMHas anyone looked into this "War of a Madman's Making" game I'm seeing?

That seems to have some suspect sources.  It's highly dressed in Soviet Era iconography and propaganda. 

The difference lies in the fact that even if he hands over all his earnings to Russia, they get nothing thanks to his pricing :grin: .
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 24, 2023, 08:19:00 AM
But surely WoaMM (whoaaamm!) must be romanticizing communism and the Soviet Union, by using that iconography, and seducing people into thinking that they should try those things for themselves since what could possibly go wrong?!?  :nono2: Such iconography could never ever be used for any other purpose, obviously, duh!

That classic Wendy's "verrry niiiiccce" commercial is much like that game, too, come to think of it.

Seriously (so to speak), that particular allegation about Atomic Heart deserves to be memed for comedy at Babylon Bee levels of satire for at least a few weeks straight.  :twirl:

.....now that I think of it, as a kind of side-topic, this makes me wish for a forum where we could discuss computer and board games with military-historical flavor or topics.  :RockOn:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 24, 2023, 08:23:58 AM
Meanwhile, back on the thread topic: hey, if you're gonna hold all human civilization hostage in order to take whatever you want when you want it, you might as well do it with style!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-state-tv-discusses-nuclear-strike-on-yellowstone-volcano/ar-AA17Rs8q?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d4b3c35ef32b4775baa6633506669b97

(Setting off the Yellowstone super-volcano would not end well for anyone in the Northern Hemisphere, in the long run. And destroying or ruining all civilization in the north half of the globe would not end well for anyone in the southern half either.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2023, 09:30:22 AM
'Jesus Christ Russia'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 24, 2023, 09:46:28 AM
The UK Ministry of Defense has just published its opinion that Russia is now pursuing a long-term strategy to use its advantages in resources and population to wear down Ukrainian defenses and weaken western resolve.

Kind of like the 1917 German strategy on the Western Front; somewhere in hell Erich Ludendorff must appreciate the irony.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1628997992039473153?s=20
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 24, 2023, 09:52:47 AM
Poland delivers the first Leopard 2s to Ukraine today.  :ThumbsUp:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-is-reportedly-getting-its-1st-advanced-western-battle-tanks-on-invasion-s-anniversary/ar-AA17SSF2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7e331bdabefd4094bc50f6d28b771f84&ei=82 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-is-reportedly-getting-its-1st-advanced-western-battle-tanks-on-invasion-s-anniversary/ar-AA17SSF2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7e331bdabefd4094bc50f6d28b771f84&ei=82)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2023, 09:54:03 AM
^History repeating, and not rhyming, there in that UK MoD report :embarrassed:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 24, 2023, 10:53:53 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 24, 2023, 09:46:28 AMThe UK Ministry of Defense has just published its opinion that Russia is now pursuing a long-term strategy to use its advantages in resources and population to wear down Ukrainian defenses and weaken western resolve.

Kind of like the 1917 German strategy on the Western Front; somewhere in hell Erich Ludendorff must appreciate the irony.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1628997992039473153?s=20

Playing that game will just invite attacks on its (Russian) infrastructure.

Nothing to stop the Ukraine from mounting an expeditionary force into Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on February 24, 2023, 11:44:27 AM
When Hersh is making comments like this, I'm having some serious questions about if he's living in the same world as us.


https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1628898816953909251?t=4Wy7DbH6514497DMQomcQw&s=19 (https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1628898816953909251?t=4Wy7DbH6514497DMQomcQw&s=19)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 24, 2023, 11:52:38 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 24, 2023, 09:46:28 AMKind of like the 1917 German strategy on the Western Front; somewhere in hell Erich Ludendorff must appreciate the irony.

"Wo ist zu Wunderfraulein jetz?!"

(I was staggered to see Ludendorff stabbed to death by Gal Gadot. That would be like Mel Gibson assassinating King George III at the end of The Patriot! Highly entertaining but what the actual what...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 24, 2023, 12:01:27 PM
 :grin:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 24, 2023, 12:03:56 PM
Seymore Hersh has made a number of very controversial claims of late. I don't know if  he's gone 'round the bend at his age but his journalistic credentials are unsurpassed going back to Vietnam and the My Lai Massacre. If he has a political agenda I don't know, he was always considered to be considerably Left Wing in his views. I don't think anything he reports as fact can be simply blown-off as untrue.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on February 24, 2023, 12:16:04 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 24, 2023, 12:03:56 PMSeymore Hersh has made a number of very controversial claims of late. I don't know if  he's gone 'round the bend at his age but his journalistic credentials are unsurpassed going back to Vietnam and the My Lai Massacre. If he has a political agenda I don't know, he was always considered to be considerably Left Wing in his views. I don't think anything he reports as fact can be simply blown-off as untrue.

It seems that in the last 10 years he's been saying some things that would make you question his accuracy. Such as "I don't necessarily buy the story that Bin Laden was responsible for 9/11." and "the story of novichok poisoning has not held up very well. He [Sergei Skripal] was most likely talking to British intelligence services about Russian organised crime."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 24, 2023, 12:19:53 PM
The one thing I've seen from him so far about the pipeline explosion being caused by the US, sounded like speculative alt-historical fiction. No evidence, no sources.

But I've allowed that he might only have been summarizing, so I've got a couple other things to watch on the topic later; just haven't gotten around to it.

Naturally, being lazy, I'm also hoping some Grogs will comment in detail.  :cool:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on February 24, 2023, 01:07:01 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 24, 2023, 12:19:53 PMThe one thing I've seen from him so far about the pipeline explosion being caused by the US, sounded like speculative alt-historical fiction. No evidence, no sources.

But I've allowed that he might only have been summarizing, so I've got a couple other things to watch on the topic later; just haven't gotten around to it.

Naturally, being lazy, I'm also hoping some Grogs will comment in detail.  :cool:


Hersh's article about the Nord Stream pipeline had a number of objections raised, some of which are very specific and bring up issues of basic fact checking (eg the bit about Jens Stoltenberg being a U.S. intelligence asset at a time when he would have been a child) as well as more technical issues like lack of supporting data and a minesweeper he later mentioned as supposedly being involved with the operation that was in fact decommissioned and being scrapped at the time. Not to mention other times when Hersh's credibility has come into question.(eg on Syria)

Related to that, among the people touting his article were attendees of the "rage against the war machine" rally in DC this past weekend, which brought together a number of far-right figures (eg Ron Paul and Tucker Carlson, who promoted it on his show) with more problematic people from the fringe-left like Max Blumenthal and Jill Stein for what was basically a pro-Russia rally disguised as an anti-war rally.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 24, 2023, 02:55:39 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2023, 10:41:13 PMso.....  one year on.

happy anniversary  :tanker1035:

 :sad:

One of the first videos that I remember. Incredible courage.

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1629083331999547393
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 24, 2023, 05:36:29 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 24, 2023, 11:52:38 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 24, 2023, 09:46:28 AMKind of like the 1917 German strategy on the Western Front; somewhere in hell Erich Ludendorff must appreciate the irony.

"Wo ist zu Wunderfraulein jetz?!"

(I was staggered to see Ludendorff stabbed to death by Gal Gadot. That would be like Mel Gibson assassinating King George III at the end of The Patriot! Highly entertaining but what the actual what...)

Mel's not an Amazon in most movies is he?

And what about Ludendorff's 1918 strategy (as in smash the allies before the American show up in force)?

Lots of questions; too few Amazons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 24, 2023, 07:44:28 PM
welcome to Ukraine!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fpvjy72XEAYiCSH?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 24, 2023, 08:46:18 PM
Quote from: GroggyGrognard2022 on February 24, 2023, 01:07:01 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 24, 2023, 12:19:53 PMThe one thing I've seen from him so far about the pipeline explosion being caused by the US, sounded like speculative alt-historical fiction. No evidence, no sources.

But I've allowed that he might only have been summarizing, so I've got a couple other things to watch on the topic later; just haven't gotten around to it.

Naturally, being lazy, I'm also hoping some Grogs will comment in detail.  :cool:


Hersh's article about the Nord Stream pipeline had a number of objections raised, some of which are very specific and bring up issues of basic fact checking (eg the bit about Jens Stoltenberg being a U.S. intelligence asset at a time when he would have been a child) as well as more technical issues like lack of supporting data and a minesweeper he later mentioned as supposedly being involved with the operation that was in fact decommissioned and being scrapped at the time. Not to mention other times when Hersh's credibility has come into question.(eg on Syria)

Related to that, among the people touting his article were attendees of the "rage against the war machine" rally in DC this past weekend, which brought together a number of far-right figures (eg Ron Paul and Tucker Carlson, who promoted it on his show) with more problematic people from the fringe-left like Max Blumenthal and Jill Stein for what was basically a pro-Russia rally disguised as an anti-war rally.

How can there be an anti-war rally when we're not at war ?  I mean that sarcastically.  If Biden had taken the Barak appeasement approach of 2014, and russian tanks where parked in Kiev, would Tucker be beating the war drum and saying Biden is too soft on the Russians and should have done something ?  You'd think the far right would be taking the hawk approach if they want to stick it to Biden and be clamoring for F16s with JSOWs to Ukraine like ASAP.   I guess the far right forgot Reagan and Peace through Strength.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 24, 2023, 09:29:12 PM
one year ago.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629216186285146112
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 24, 2023, 10:21:18 PM
Gonna be a lot of one-year-ago recalls for a while, and well-deserved, too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 25, 2023, 10:54:24 AM
Quote from: Skoop on February 24, 2023, 08:46:18 PM
Quote from: GroggyGrognard2022 on February 24, 2023, 01:07:01 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 24, 2023, 12:19:53 PMThe one thing I've seen from him so far about the pipeline explosion being caused by the US, sounded like speculative alt-historical fiction. No evidence, no sources.

But I've allowed that he might only have been summarizing, so I've got a couple other things to watch on the topic later; just haven't gotten around to it.

Naturally, being lazy, I'm also hoping some Grogs will comment in detail.  :cool:


Hersh's article about the Nord Stream pipeline had a number of objections raised, some of which are very specific and bring up issues of basic fact checking (eg the bit about Jens Stoltenberg being a U.S. intelligence asset at a time when he would have been a child) as well as more technical issues like lack of supporting data and a minesweeper he later mentioned as supposedly being involved with the operation that was in fact decommissioned and being scrapped at the time. Not to mention other times when Hersh's credibility has come into question.(eg on Syria)

Related to that, among the people touting his article were attendees of the "rage against the war machine" rally in DC this past weekend, which brought together a number of far-right figures (eg Ron Paul and Tucker Carlson, who promoted it on his show) with more problematic people from the fringe-left like Max Blumenthal and Jill Stein for what was basically a pro-Russia rally disguised as an anti-war rally.

How can there be an anti-war rally when we're not at war ?  I mean that sarcastically.  If Biden had taken the Barak appeasement approach of 2014, and russian tanks where parked in Kiev, would Tucker be beating the war drum and saying Biden is too soft on the Russians and should have done something ?  You'd think the far right would be taking the hawk approach if they want to stick it to Biden and be clamoring for F16s with JSOWs to Ukraine like ASAP.  I guess the far right forgot Reagan and Peace through Strength.

  I think a lot of things about this war can be somewhat confusing.  For one thing -- the scale -- it's really huge for a small war and somewhat confined for a large war.  Then there's the whole "What was Putin thinking?" problem.  I still find it hard to comprehend at all in any way what he thought was going to happen and now people keep coming up with reasons it sort of made sense BUT weirdly  Putin's project just makes less and less sense.  So now he's going to take Belarus and Moldovia (supposedly, somehow in incomprehensible terms that maybe somehow sort of make sense) and you know just try and stop him, cuz yep, he'll blow up the world to keep things goofy in Transnistria.

  And then there's the collateral context where economically the war is pretty good for India and China and not so good for the West and even worse for Russia.

  And then there's the problem of keeping the war as small as possible (something that China and the US probably could agree on if they worked on it)...this gives the Russians some leverage since they could work on keeping it small and sort of using that aim to keep it going until they can save some of their wrecked prestige.

  We're really into the PR stage of damage control at this point and that is even more confusing since it is a very real if still somewhat small war with all the attendant hopes and horrors of a war of any size.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 25, 2023, 02:26:05 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 24, 2023, 08:46:18 PM
Quote from: GroggyGrognard2022 on February 24, 2023, 01:07:01 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 24, 2023, 12:19:53 PMThe one thing I've seen from him so far about the pipeline explosion being caused by the US, sounded like speculative alt-historical fiction. No evidence, no sources.

But I've allowed that he might only have been summarizing, so I've got a couple other things to watch on the topic later; just haven't gotten around to it.

Naturally, being lazy, I'm also hoping some Grogs will comment in detail.  :cool:


Hersh's article about the Nord Stream pipeline had a number of objections raised, some of which are very specific and bring up issues of basic fact checking (eg the bit about Jens Stoltenberg being a U.S. intelligence asset at a time when he would have been a child) as well as more technical issues like lack of supporting data and a minesweeper he later mentioned as supposedly being involved with the operation that was in fact decommissioned and being scrapped at the time. Not to mention other times when Hersh's credibility has come into question.(eg on Syria)

Related to that, among the people touting his article were attendees of the "rage against the war machine" rally in DC this past weekend, which brought together a number of far-right figures (eg Ron Paul and Tucker Carlson, who promoted it on his show) with more problematic people from the fringe-left like Max Blumenthal and Jill Stein for what was basically a pro-Russia rally disguised as an anti-war rally.

How can there be an anti-war rally when we're not at war ?  I mean that sarcastically.  If Biden had taken the Barak appeasement approach of 2014, and russian tanks where parked in Kiev, would Tucker be beating the war drum and saying Biden is too soft on the Russians and should have done something ?  You'd think the far right would be taking the hawk approach if they want to stick it to Biden and be clamoring for F16s with JSOWs to Ukraine like ASAP.   I guess the far right forgot Reagan and Peace through Strength.

They're just remembering Trump, and Peace through Isolationism.  Man, if only the USA had left NATO like Trump suggested, we wouldn't be saddled with this whole Ukraine problem now...

Sarcasm aside, I'd suggest that any mention of US domestic politics here seems to seriously reduce the quality of discussion of the war.  I don't disagree.  Just throwing out another grenade to suggest that we should stop throwing grenades!   :Dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2023, 01:24:05 PM
 :cool:   some very well defended Himars.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629575251972456448
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2023, 01:25:07 PM
it would also appear that the soviets lost an A-50u awacs on the ground.
most likely another smoking issue.  :knuppel2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 26, 2023, 05:27:37 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2023, 01:24:05 PM:cool:   some very well defended Himars.

Those tanks look very happy to be defending H'rs!  :cool:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 26, 2023, 05:30:29 PM
The Business Basics channel can be more than a little click-baity, but leaving that aside they generally do provide good situation analyses. So here's a video today about the current state of the economic war against Putin's regime, and his economic plans for a counterattack (so to speak).

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 27, 2023, 05:23:49 AM
What we've seen reported recently are the static frontlines and the Russian assault tactics to slowly creep into Ukrainian positions.

Hence it was interesting to see this post detailing the new Tactical Assault Units, replacing the  Battalion tactical groups that seemed to be the previous basic unit of maneuvre. 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp3qREIX0AUSE8X?format=jpg&name=small)

To be fair, it is for a different purpose, but that said can't but wonder if the heavy losses are playing a part here. Here's how an assault company comes together:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp3sHEMWAAMIDec?format=jpg&name=small)


Your standard Russian BTG was a Tank Coy of 10 tanks + some 40 BMPs for infantry. Here we have three tanks, one per assault company, and the 40 something BMPs are down to 12, or four per assault company. Also, despite of the number of mobiks recruited, supposedly plenty of them, this does not seem to have that many feet on the ground either.

Original post and the full content via threadreader:

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1629722073487613953

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1629722073487613953.html

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 27, 2023, 10:58:44 AM
Enter Player 3....  Belarus Partisans

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/belarus-partisans-say-they-blew-up-a-russian-military-aircraft-near-minsk/ar-AA17Zb1W?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=2eabcf96f6434da4b6894c41db10cf5b&ei=15 (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/belarus-partisans-say-they-blew-up-a-russian-military-aircraft-near-minsk/ar-AA17Zb1W?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=2eabcf96f6434da4b6894c41db10cf5b&ei=15)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 27, 2023, 11:01:29 AM
Do we know for a fact that there are 3 companies for every Battalion under this new configuration? 

I think the best way to make an apples to apples comparison in how much things are changing is to look at the ratios.
They're still roughly 4-to-1 in BMPs to Tanks.  I wonder if the ratio of infantry-to-vehicles has changed? 

My sense is that initial impressions of the BTG were that it was too light on infantry, and that they weren't deployed aggressively enough to protect the vehicles in anything besides wide-open country.  It does make one wonder whether Russian casualties have been higher among infantry or vehicles? 

From the trench warfare nature of things, I'd assume it's infantry, but few things about the Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine have been predictable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 27, 2023, 11:28:48 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 27, 2023, 11:01:29 AMIt does make one wonder whether Russian casualties have been higher among infantry or vehicles? 

From the trench warfare nature of things, I'd assume it's infantry, but few things about the Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine have been predictable.

If the Uk DoD numbers for Russian casualties are anything like real, then of course in absolute numbers it's infantry, but proportionate to units deployed it's vehicles by a ridiculously wide margin.

That may be shifting, however, as the restructure of the Kampfgruppe (cough) suggests. Also, come to think of it -- and I realize this may be pure coincidence -- I've seen an increasing number of drone vs ork infantry videos in the past few weeks compared to drone vs ork vehicles.

The rationale reported for the restructure is very interesting: not due to lack of material or personnel, but due to problems in command and control!

So, open question: could this restructure of the BTGs improve C&C, at least theoretically (keeping in mind a probably endemic lack of officer skill and NCO training to help the officers)? If so, how?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 27, 2023, 11:34:41 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 27, 2023, 11:01:29 AMDo we know for a fact that there are 3 companies for every Battalion under this new configuration? 

I think the best way to make an apples to apples comparison in how much things are changing is to look at the ratios.
They're still roughly 4-to-1 in BMPs to Tanks.  I wonder if the ratio of infantry-to-vehicles has changed? 

My sense is that initial impressions of the BTG were that it was too light on infantry, and that they weren't deployed aggressively enough to protect the vehicles in anything besides wide-open country.  It does make one wonder whether Russian casualties have been higher among infantry or vehicles? 

From the trench warfare nature of things, I'd assume it's infantry, but few things about the Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine have been predictable.

Apparently two to three companies per unit.

Quote3/16 The Assault Detachment is customizable to mission requirements and consists of 2-3 assault companies, a command unit, an artillery support unit, and other groups: recon, tank, EW, AD, fire support, UAV, Medevac, flamethrowing, assault engineering, reserve, equipment recovery

One would assume they'd push motorised BTGs should one of these assault units be able to breach the Ukrainian lines, but that's seemingly not happening. Trench warfare ala the Great War, daily advantaces measured in meters, not kilometres.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 27, 2023, 11:50:01 AM
'Assault Engineering'. Are those the guys that dig the graves or the trenches?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2023, 12:42:21 PM
while there's currently no hard evidence at hand there are a lot of rumors of some interesting things going on just north of Bahkmut.  possibly another russian encirclement by Ukraine forces.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 27, 2023, 01:13:43 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 27, 2023, 11:50:01 AM'Assault Engineering'. Are those the guys that dig the graves or the trenches?

Depending on who they're used for, they could be the same thing.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 27, 2023, 03:44:00 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2023, 12:42:21 PMwhile there's currently no hard evidence at hand there are a lot of rumors of some interesting things going on just north of Bahkmut.  possibly another russian encirclement by Ukraine forces.

Wouldn't surprise me.... if true I wonder how deep the maneuver will try to go? I am sure they'd want to capture a whole bunch of Russian artillery goodies.

Which brings me to the question of Russian POWs. I can't say I have read anything about where they go.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 27, 2023, 05:02:09 PM
The Russian's just rejected their "Chinese friend's" plan for peace. Although the Russians said they "paid a lot of attention" to the plan.

There seems to be a whole bunch of diplomatic mind games being played over China's 'maybe / maybe not' involvement.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-shoots-down-china-s-peace-plan-for-the-ukraine-war-as-beijing-becomes-more-entangled-in-the-conflict-a-year-into-the-fighting/ar-AA180Csl?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8d37c1ee71c74d2780e6d4ed9bbd0fdf&ei=15 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-shoots-down-china-s-peace-plan-for-the-ukraine-war-as-beijing-becomes-more-entangled-in-the-conflict-a-year-into-the-fighting/ar-AA180Csl?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8d37c1ee71c74d2780e6d4ed9bbd0fdf&ei=15)

The Chinese are sending conflicting signals.

Do they want to be peacemakers? Is Zelensky saying he is willing to meet with Xi to stoke the Chinese 'better angels'?

or, do the Chinese want to tie down western military power and send ammunition and drones to Russia?

or, are the Chinese split internally (hardliners vs. globalists) and pursuing both paths?

and for the Machiavellians out there...are the Chinese the reason that NATO keeps saying "no" to sending aircraft to Ukraine?

Stay tuned... :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 27, 2023, 05:09:26 PM
Imagine Chinese peacekeepers in Ukraine...holy Larry Bond.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2023, 10:41:17 PM
this is what may be going on right now.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp9z2amWYAEcBnn?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2023, 10:47:51 PM
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-ground-forces-commander-visits-besieged-bakhmut-talk-strategy-boost-2023-02-27/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 27, 2023, 11:11:45 PM
I heard the Ukrainians are blowing the dams around Bakhmut to flood the approaches and slow the Russian advance.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2023, 11:14:49 PM
they blew a damn on the north side of town.

heres another take on whats going on:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp-OJdwWwAAECoc?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 28, 2023, 04:28:25 AM
The coming war as seen by senior military and political leaders. Interesting (and long) read.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-oral-history-00083757

For instance, why the feared Russian cyber attack did not work out - lots of hard work and preventive preparation:

QuoteGEN. PAUL NAKASONE: We sent a [U.S. Cyber Command] team forward, and they land in Kyiv on the fourth of December. Within a day or two, the leader calls back, and she tells my Cyber National Mission Force commander, her boss, "We're not coming home for a while. In fact, send more people." We sent our largest "hunt forward" package into Kyiv. That stays there for a little over 70 days. What is a "hunt forward" operation? A hunt forward operation is focused at the partner's request to look at a series of networks — we identify malware, tradecraft and anomalous behavior in those networks that point us to adversaries and allow the partner — in this case, Ukraine — to strengthen those networks.

The interesting thing that she — the team leader — said: "They're really serious about this." This is the third time that we had been back in Ukraine, and there was just a different feeling in terms of how Ukraine was approaching it. When we provided information, they were moving on it, correcting the vulnerability, and looking for more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 28, 2023, 11:44:32 AM
When I say the proportional losses have been much worse for Russian vehicles than infantry, and that I'm very curious to watch Russia fall completely apart by ramping up quasi-mobilization (much moreso any full mobilization), this is what I mean, from Business Insider (via MSN):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-just-one-tank-factory-churning-out-20-tanks-a-month-with-demand-outstripping-production-by-a-factor-of-ten-says-report/ar-AA182gFH?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=af5bc3ef3a714d29ad6d12966bd38f58&ei=62

On one hand, hey, it's UralWagonZavod! (Set up originally in the early 30s by American contractors with American factory machinery!) Kind of nice to see some legacy still going!

On the other hand, 30,000 people supporting production of 20 tanks a month, would get some people sent to 'lumberjack' camps to 'count trees'.  :nono2: Even granting that modern Russian tanks are more sophisticated, at this point T-34s with some modern upgrades might work just as well! -- but I doubt they have the material capacity and logistic backfield to support even creating those, much less supporting them from the factory onward.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 28, 2023, 11:54:20 AM
Speaking of quasi-mobilization problems, here's Newsweek reporting from the ISW without any links back to the ISW (oddly  :huh: ):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-counteroffensive-shocked-putin-into-another-mobilization-isw/ar-AA180aFI?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=33ab70c06ae441af9f2100e986ae16cd&ei=35

The referenced ISW report seems to be this from Feb 26th (which is mostly about the semi-mobilization problems: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2023
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 28, 2023, 03:19:55 PM
Some unsettling reporting that the war is only helping Putin tighten his grip on Russia.

This from a NYT reporter in Russia.

Many Russians apparently buy the propaganda line the Putin's attack on Ukraine was actually "smart" because it pre-empted a NATO attack on Russia.

In the reporter's opinion, because of propaganda, it may take a long time for Russian society to turn against the war.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 28, 2023, 04:18:59 PM
Putler: "I shall pre-empt NATO killing our country by throwing our troops and vehicles against defenses supported by NATO! Soon I shall be wictory!!"  :twirl:  :martini:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 28, 2023, 10:41:17 PM
Video of airfield at Yesk going up in flames after a loose cigarette falling from the lips sinks some airships, so to speak: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11eno2q/explosions_at_the_russian_airfield_in_yeysk_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Much farther away, beyond the southern Crimea coast (kind of at the limit of the Kuban coast in IL2BoX), an oil field tastes a flung cigarette: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11eee97/two_drones_attack_a_rosneft_oil_depot_in_tuapse/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Those cigarettes were first deployed by the Tupolev bureau in 1979, by the way, so very stale in good Russian fashion!

Who knows whether one of Putin's mansions, about a dozen miles away, might also someday suffer a cigarette fire... (Though I doubt any cigs would be wasted on a non-strategic or tactical target. Still, I wouldn't go walking near any windows down there right now, if I was Putin!)

Still, that's the farthest the Uks have officially struck into acknowledged Russian territory so far...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on February 28, 2023, 10:59:15 PM
Do we know for sure if the Ukrainians sent the drones or did they just attack on their own? It could be drones don't like Russians.  :cylonA: 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 28, 2023, 11:52:27 PM
It could be Skynet controlling the drones.  You know, that self-aware computer built by the folks who make Sensodyne.

I think Putin has clamped down very successfully in Russia.  He has imprisoned or chased out of the country almost all the would-be Liberals.  I heard one reporter, who I believe had lived in Russia for more than a decade, say that she felt like Russia hadn't felt this paranoid or suspicious since Stalin's purges in the 30s. 

The report stated that civil society in Russia is disintegrating, as children rush to inform on teachers while teachers do the same to report on students, family members report on each other, teammates report on coaches, etc.  While the Russians seem to have brought this fate on themselves, it's pretty clear that it won't end well no matter what happens next.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 01, 2023, 08:24:30 AM
It says something about the relative quality of geek culture that I have no idea what any of the 'modern' Terminator AIs are named. I know there's more than one, depending on which alternate timeline is being whatevered...  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 01, 2023, 10:36:39 AM
No problem Jason, the first 2 are the only ones worth watching. You are confined to the Movie Room until you've completed your assignment. But, you can tell everyone that, "I'll be BACH".  :halfrobot:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 01, 2023, 11:29:43 AM
Oh I've seen most of them (except the Chronicles TV series which I've heard is very good); I just don't recall the new AI names.

(I actually like T3, and I thought the T-Salvation attempt at starting a new trilogy during the future war was a noble effort with some good set pieces and effects. Come to think of it, I haven't seen Genysys or whatever it's called with Matt Smith as a terminator!)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 01, 2023, 12:27:45 PM
Dark Fate was pretty good. And the Sarah Connor Chronicles was very good too. Watch them before the world actually does end.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 01, 2023, 01:18:31 PM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/dad-arrested-in-russia-after-daughter-drew-anti-war-picture-at-school

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/02/28/the-fsb-said-i-m-raising-my-daughter-wrong

A single father was arrested in Russia and charged with discrediting the military after his daughter drew an anti-war picture in an art class at school, according to reports.

Alexey Moskalev, from Russia's eastern Tula region, says the trouble began in April 2022 when a teacher at his daughter's school instructed her class to draw pictures in support of Russia's troops in Ukraine. Instead, his daughter Masha drew an image containing a Russian flag with the words "no to war" on it and a Ukrainian flag emblazoned with the words "Glory to Ukraine." It also showed bombs flying from the Russian side of the image toward a woman and a child on the Ukraine side.

The teacher informed the school's director who in turn called the police, Alexey says. According to his lawyer, Vladimir Bilienko, Alexey now faces up to three years in prison if his case goes to court "and the girl is sent to an orphanage," OVD-Info reports.

I asked, 'Where's my daughter?' They responded that she was being interviewed in the next office over. For three and a half hours, they told me that I'm raising my daughter incorrectly; they said they were going to take her from me and put me in jail," said Alexey.

An activist from a local civil organization has said the girl was already sent to a children's shelter.


 :angry:  :cry:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 01, 2023, 03:16:06 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 01, 2023, 08:24:30 AMIt says something about the relative quality of geek culture that I have no idea what any of the 'modern' Terminator AIs are named. I know there's more than one, depending on which alternate timeline is being whatevered...  :buck2:

I'm trying to be concerned about geek culture...have we lost touch with the Terminator?

Anyway from Newsweek:
Since Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian officials have remained firm that Crimea, which Putin annexed in 2014, must remain part of its nation in any future peace talks. In addition, the Kremlin maintains that four additional territories it illegitimately annexed this past September must also be recognized as Russian.

Okay so on the face of it a) the Russians have set impossible conditions for negotiations they said last month that they would not consider b) and what they say they want is everything they have taken and maybe a little more

So you would think this means they aren't really negotiating -- but I suspect this admission that they will settle for what they are holding right now more or less is in fact the beginning of some kind of realism on the Russian side.  Ideally, they would like to quit while they are slightly ahead of where they were in terms of territory, but
that's the same really as saying they want out of this mess as soon as possible.

Or so it seems to me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 01, 2023, 09:37:21 PM
Yeah.  Zelensky has stated that his preconditions for peace involve the restoration of Ukrainian borders to their pre-2014 state.  So neither side is openly budging yet.  I think the first side to offer a concession will come off as the first one to blink.

While I don't blame the Ukrainians for wanting all their occupied territory back, they seem no more interested in compromising than the Putinist regime does at this point.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 01, 2023, 09:43:32 PM
Cyberdyne systems created Skynet and the original Terminator series, as revealed in T2 and also featured in a cut scene from the original Terminator.  I was making a sarcastic reference to the manufacturers of this product:

(https://images.xystuff.com/item/120696/original/7f8252198f0db64d7d9e2516163d949e.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 01, 2023, 10:47:03 PM
Putin might be a Terminator come to think of it. Surgically implanted with Stalin's brain and sent ahead in time because he knew Khruschev would f--k it all up after he died. Anybody got the Conner's number?  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 02, 2023, 02:16:00 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 01, 2023, 10:47:03 PMPutin might be a Terminator come to think of it. Surgically implanted with Stalin's brain and sent ahead in time because he knew Khruschev would f--k it all up after he died. Anybody got the Conner's number?  :shocked:

I think you're right. This reads directly like Stalin's playbook from 1930s as available in any history books. One would've hoped "never again", but here we go.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/02/kherson-torture-centres-were-planned-by-russian-state-say-lawyers
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 02, 2023, 08:14:59 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 01, 2023, 09:37:21 PMYeah.  Zelensky has stated that his preconditions for peace involve the restoration of Ukrainian borders to their pre-2014 state.  So neither side is openly budging yet.  I think the first side to offer a concession will come off as the first one to blink.

While I don't blame the Ukrainians for wanting all their occupied territory back, they seem no more interested in compromising than the Putinist regime does at this point.

From the Guardian and CNN:
Blinken and Lavrov meet for the first time since Russia's invasion
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, spoke for less than 10 minutes on the margins of the G20 meeting in New Delhi today, according to a US state department official.

Blinken reiterated to Lavrov that Washington was prepared to support Ukraine's defence for as long as it takes, the official said, in what is believed to be their first one-on-one conversation in person since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Blinken also called for Moscow to reverse its decision to suspend participation in the New Start nuclear treaty and to release detained US citizen, Paul Whelan.

The official said:

The secretary saw the purpose of this was to deliver these three direct messages, which we see as advancing our interests.

We always remain hopeful that the Russians will reverse their decision and be prepared to engage in a diplomatic process that can lead to a just and durable peace, but I wouldn't say that coming out of this encounter there was any expectation that things will change in the near term.

Lavrov did not mention the meeting during a news conference he gave after Thursday's G20 foreign ministers' meeting.

Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, confirmed the meeting took place, telling CNN:

Blinken asked for contact with Lavrov. On the go, as part of the second session of the [G20], Sergey Viktorovich [Lavrov] talked. There were no negotiations, meetings, etc.


So I think the diplomatic stew is starting to go into the diplomatic pot.  It may take decades to get brothy, but with the US putting things on the table and Belarus and China suggesting a ceasefire.  Stuff is coming up.  I think the Ukrainians would be wise to just hold the current lines or even pull back some to keep their casualties low while making it clear that they will be shooting a lot of stuff all over the place and getting ready to launch some big attacks if necessary to push the negotiations.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 02, 2023, 09:19:52 AM
Build the wall!
Build the Line!
Mannherheim
was just fine!  :ThumbsUp:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/finland-has-started-building-a-124-mile-fence-on-its-border-with-russia-it-s-going-to-be-covered-in-barbed-wire-and-span-riskier-areas-between-the-countries-finland-says/ar-AA185QaJ?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=64aad6a3b1f24c20a93e17413dcf3888&ei=113

(Just an illegal immigrant wall in 'risky areas'. For now.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 02, 2023, 09:46:38 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 02, 2023, 09:19:52 AMBuild the wall!
Build the Line!
Mannherheim
was just fine!  :ThumbsUp:

Dammit Jason, now I need to start a crowdsource to have some cheerleaders at the border crossings  :twirl:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 02, 2023, 10:37:40 AM
Kerch Bridge down for repairs apparently?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11f787s/reportedly_this_video_is_from_last_night_it_shows/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 02, 2023, 11:12:41 AM
Was that AWACS blown up in Belarus mentioned up thread? I can't recall... just in case!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11cuvrl/four_photos_information_on_february_26th_it_is/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 02, 2023, 11:56:52 AM
Explosions near Sevastapol & Yalta:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11fb9va/breakingexplosions_are_reported_in_bakhchysarai/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2023, 12:22:59 PM
 :ROFL:   link works.  it's the drone that blew up the a50u awacs.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1631301111414923268?t=2Y3xCzqdheWhNQlVAnFZvQ&s=19
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 02, 2023, 12:40:33 PM
More smoking accidents in the Crimea?  :shocked:   "Build the Wall and make Putin pay for it"!  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 02, 2023, 12:47:00 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 02, 2023, 12:40:33 PMMore smoking accidents in the Crimea?  :shocked:   "Build the Wall and make Putin pay for it"!  :ThumbsUp:

Humour aside, Russia presents quite a few challenges to the more civilized world. As a nation they are paranoid as fuck and they are run by a kleptocratic cabal who seemingly don't give a flying fuck about their people. And these bastards have nukes.... amoral, paranoid and without empathy - with big guns... jeebus!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2023, 03:29:52 PM
Russian's fighting for Ukraine apparently crossed the border into Russia, caused havoc and took hostages in a Russian village. According to the news reports, nobody is denying it...so probably not a false flag op.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-is-the-russian-volunteer-corps-hostages-reportedly-taken-in-russia/ar-AA188DGW?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a570feef4ade46cbbf3c536bfa4cc216&ei=15 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-is-the-russian-volunteer-corps-hostages-reportedly-taken-in-russia/ar-AA188DGW?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a570feef4ade46cbbf3c536bfa4cc216&ei=15)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 02, 2023, 04:33:02 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 02, 2023, 03:29:52 PMRussian's fighting for Ukraine apparently crossed the border into Russia, caused havoc and took hostages in a Russian village. According to the news reports, nobody is denying it...so probably not a false flag op.

Ukraine does deny they are behind the attack. 

Ukraine's command in the north on Feb. 23 had warned that Russia may be planning a false-flag operation in the area, "most likely ... to accuse the Ukrainian defenders of violating territorial integrity." (https://t.me/ok_pivnich1/1382)

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-claims-ukraine-crossing-border-in-sabotage-attacks-kyiv-denies

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak described the Russian reports as "a classic deliberate provocation."



https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-forces-are-fighting-ukrainian-sabotage-group-border-region-russian-news-2023-03-02/

Ukraine accused Russia of staging a false "provocation", but also appeared to imply some form of operation had indeed been carried out by Russian anti-government partisans.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-summons-defense-officials-after-supposed-ukrainian-attack-in-russia

In a huge plot twist, however, a group of Russians led by a well-known Russian nationalist claimed they were behind the attack.

The story of an attack by "Ukrainian saboteurs" is "all a lie by Kremlin propagandists," the group said on Telegram.

"We're not at war with civilians. We don't kill those who are unarmed," a man said in a video, purportedly from the scene in Bryansk, shared by the Russian Volunteer Corps.



https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1631241403920527361 (https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1631241403920527361)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2023, 07:04:02 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1631361591621959684
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2023, 09:54:49 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1631189395356131332
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 02, 2023, 10:23:03 PM
Explosions near Kolomna, 30 miles southeast of Moscow:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11gdjdq/a_raging_fire_after_a_loud_blast_in_kolomna/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11gcdcx/cctv_cameras_in_the_russian_city_of_kolomna_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Hat tip to the Enforcer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Boggit on March 03, 2023, 01:46:04 AM
I don't know if any of you follow History Legends strategy updates on the current war?
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLyrWXxpwLyXqTJqExB4w4whnDm-GIDL6

Obviously there is a real problem in getting current reliable data, fog of war etc. All the same anecdotally from other sources he appears to be fairly accurate so far in his reporting of this horrible war.

This is his latest podcast on the battle of Bakhmut:


It's not a done deal yet, but this does look very similar to a Ukrainian Stalingrad if they get totally isolated as with Mariupol. If he is right that the distance to the main supply route is just 1.3km, then resupply and options for withdrawal are very difficult for the Ukrainians.

Short of the Ukrainians getting substantial reinforcements and equipment, ammo etc it seems a difficult task for them to regain the strategic initiative.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 03, 2023, 08:25:37 AM
The Hill's update this morning (plus a CNN reporter on the ground for flavor):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bakhmut-on-the-brink-as-ukraine-signals-retreat/ar-AA189xNK?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=2222ad1225344a79a5033b52a4ae55b5&ei=61
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 03, 2023, 08:32:04 AM
The ISW report from yesterday, including several other topics of interest (like the apparent border incursion which may have allowed a subtle terminology change from "special operation" to "war".)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-2-2023

The Bahkmut update analysis (which may be outdated by now if Wagner has scooted along effectively, for once ;) ), can be found about half-way down the page. No way to link directly to it.

The ISW suggested yesterday that Russian forces lacked the logistic capability to truly cut off and reduce Bahkmut, and so may be simply trying to pressure Ukrainian defenders to withdraw along an open highway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 03, 2023, 08:40:16 PM
Commercialization was bound to happen. Own a piece of a Russian Su-25 shot down outside of Kyiv in 2022.

https://roncole.net/collections/new-releases/products/russian-federation-su-25-ukraine-combat-loss-relic-display-by-ron-cole (https://roncole.net/collections/new-releases/products/russian-federation-su-25-ukraine-combat-loss-relic-display-by-ron-cole)

I don't really endorse this site, and not trying to pimp them (although I do have a very nice WW-II Me262 / P-51 display from them)

I just thought it interesting and inevitable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 03, 2023, 11:30:37 PM
On a somewhat different but related note (to the thread topic): about a year ago, the "Wartime Stories" channel (which is an offshoot of the "Bedtime Stories" channel, mostly featuring historical creepypasta reports with some analysis -- obviously this channel takes a military angle), released a production of a story from 2015 Ukraine's fight against Russian invaders. This was paired with a Youtube charity event raising cash for Ukrainian supplies.

One key point of the video, which has nothing to do with the story (which for all I know is fictitious, but I know the producers of the main channel never make up material themselves, just videos about legendary topics which may or may not be fictional), suddenly explained to me why Russian state media can get away with claiming there are tons of US troops in Ukraine fighting against them: Uk troops often wear infrared patches bought from the US, which naturally are US flags!

Anyway, a well-produced video (as usual for them), and I wanted to give them some exposure, maybe some new fans:


The Sabaton faintly blasting out the windows of the lead BTR as it goes past, was a slight joke inspired by this clip:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 04, 2023, 08:16:47 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqYJrbOWcAAaZz4?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 04, 2023, 10:06:19 AM

 It looks like the Ukrainians are going to pull out.  The attack at Klischiivka would be to make that work better.  if they intended to stay in Bakhmut, they would be attacking along the M-03 or further north to cut off that northern thrust by the Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2023, 12:43:03 PM
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1632047727616851968
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 05, 2023, 03:07:21 PM
 :shocked:

QuoteYes, this is a Maxim machine gun with a sight, a muzzle attachment, a butt and a cooling system (look closely, there the hose goes away from the barrel). 120 years in service!

https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1632441230389903366
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 05, 2023, 05:12:48 PM
^Wow  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 05, 2023, 05:24:07 PM
Similar to the Maxim post above, say hello to the Russian MPL-50 shovel, designed in 1869 with little change since then.

Ukraine war: Russian reservists fighting with shovels - UK defence ministry
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 06, 2023, 10:01:18 AM
Not a good day to be an Ork in Melitopol...!

https://twitter.com/Miguel_L71/status/1632533827766693889?s=20

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1632527954201698304?s=20

Hundreds of Russian troops bite the dust, actual tally unclear yet. Don't know about civilians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 06, 2023, 10:05:30 AM
Fashion trends in the world's second-largest army supposedly!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11it0ha/i_present_to_you_the_fashion_trends_of_the_worlds/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 06, 2023, 12:21:19 PM
Makes sense to me. If I was in the Russian Army, I'd keep a good pair of running shoes close at all times.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 06, 2023, 12:28:11 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 06, 2023, 10:05:30 AMFashion trends in the world's second-largest army supposedly!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11it0ha/i_present_to_you_the_fashion_trends_of_the_worlds/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Love those red shoe laces!!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 06, 2023, 01:52:22 PM
Yup.  Those laces really pop!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 06, 2023, 02:28:41 PM
Latest US aid includes Armored Vehicle Launched Bridges (AVLBs). Just the thing needed for an armored counter-attack / advance.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/weapons-aid-ukraine-ammunition-portable-armored-bridges/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/weapons-aid-ukraine-ammunition-portable-armored-bridges/)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 06, 2023, 04:02:41 PM
That opens up some possibilities doesn't it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 07, 2023, 02:52:27 PM
...do they come in black?  :ninja1:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2023, 07:13:49 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fqn0odvX0AI3rUF?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 07, 2023, 08:35:30 PM
The Russian closing of M-03 not only leaves the defenders of Bakhmut reliant on a single road for supply and exit, but it does the same thing for another Ukrainian-held city NW of Bakhmut 50 or 100 miles, I think.  The name escapes me and even if I remembered the letters I'm sure I wouldn't get them in the right order.

Do we think the Russians care about how many casualties they take?  It's only a problem if it affects readiness, I think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 07, 2023, 08:47:59 PM
Clearly true readiness has not been a priority for the Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2023, 06:34:39 PM
Ukrainian position gets overrun!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1633464074989187073
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 08, 2023, 06:56:26 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2023, 06:34:39 PMUkrainian position gets overrun!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1633464074989187073

Looks like meat's back on the menu!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 08, 2023, 07:57:27 PM
Like Arby's, they've got the meats!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 08, 2023, 11:22:58 PM
I don't know...could be Suicide Cows. Hey, the Russians did it with dogs back in '41.  :headscratch:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2023, 12:27:53 AM
and stopped because the dogs were trained with t-34s and the dogs kept running under them during actual operations.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 09, 2023, 08:38:18 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 07, 2023, 08:47:59 PMClearly true readiness has not been a priority for the Russians.

Hey now, true readiness has never been tried!  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 10, 2023, 05:53:58 PM
Wagner is apparently taking a "pause" at Bakhmut.

Have been some bizzarro statements thrown around by Prigoszhin in the past week complaining about the fact that he just doesn't get the love he deserves; he uses the word ammunition...but in his mind that is probably the same thing.

https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-group-bakhmut-tactical-pause-ukraine-1786847 (https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-group-bakhmut-tactical-pause-ukraine-1786847)

BTW, I think Wagner taking a unilateral decision to "pause" is a great case study why the US' Founding Fathers had an aversion to the use of mercenaries.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 10, 2023, 07:35:38 PM
Yeah.  Before this all said and done, I bet the Russians will stoop to even trying to hire mercenary dogs to blow up Ukrainian tanks.

 :stormtrooper2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 10, 2023, 07:37:38 PM
^I bet that has been done already :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 10, 2023, 07:43:25 PM
new toy to make JH green with envy.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1634304986854092800
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 10, 2023, 07:47:05 PM
Ammo backpack!!  :ninjameditate:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 10, 2023, 11:26:35 PM
Dammit! Nine months until Christmas.  :doh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 10, 2023, 11:41:39 PM
9 months for JH.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 11, 2023, 12:23:00 AM
Some nice controlled direct aim fire discipline, before a little suppression. That guy knows what he's doing! HE DEFINITELY EARNS THE BACKPACK!  :present:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 11, 2023, 10:15:06 AM
I wonder what would happen if he picked-up the wrong backpack and tried feeding his BVD's into that gun?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 11, 2023, 11:07:23 AM
He might put a wedgie in their lines, but I bet the Russian response would be elastic enough to snap back into line quickly.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 11, 2023, 11:21:18 AM
 :undecided:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 11, 2023, 01:59:48 PM
Kiev Independent article on the current Russian and upcoming Ukrainian offensive.  Worth a read:
https://kyivindependent.com/hot-topic/season-of-offensives-what-to-expect-from-the-spring-campaign-in-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 11, 2023, 02:27:43 PM
:evil: (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fq9i4ugWIAQQTZ-?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 11, 2023, 05:50:22 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 11, 2023, 01:59:48 PMKiev Independent article on the current Russian and upcoming Ukrainian offensive.  Worth a read:
https://kyivindependent.com/hot-topic/season-of-offensives-what-to-expect-from-the-spring-campaign-in-ukraine

That's a good, fair article, Trip.  I hope the Ukrainians are able to stand toe-to-toe with the Russians and beat them off, then respond with a heavy counter-attack.  I still worry that a long-term war is in Russia's favor, especially if folks in the West continue to look at short-term military production as a medium priority rather than an urgent priority.

Ukraine is the Czechoslovakia to Putin's version of Nazi Germany.  Spending a little more blood and treasure now will pay huge dividends for the next 20+ years.  Spending too little now will lock all of the West into an arms race with China and Russia whose expenses will dwarf the current exertions of NATO countries in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 12, 2023, 01:06:57 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 11, 2023, 05:50:22 PM-snip-

Ukraine is the Czechoslovakia to Putin's version of Nazi Germany.  Spending a little more blood and treasure now will pay huge dividends for the next 20+ years.  Spending too little now will lock all of the West into an arms race with China and Russia whose expenses will dwarf the current exertions of NATO countries in Ukraine.

I have a sinking feeling this the equal to Hitler's (and Stalin's) Invasion of Poland. Ukraine is putting up a fierce resistance against an invader who wants to erase their identity from the map.

The Munich moment was perhaps annexation of Crimea, and extending the hostilities to Donbass. Appeasement won. Before that, there were South Ossetia and Abkhazia effectively annexed from Georgia and Transnistria annexed from Moldova.

Is it global war, does China decide Russia can't lose the war? Or, if appeasement wins again, does Putin walk away as a self declared winner of this war, too.

Bad and worse choices. We seem to be heading towards a world where no longer there can be power vacuums, any weak spots will be filled by force if necessary.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 12, 2023, 09:32:07 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on March 12, 2023, 01:06:57 AMI have a sinking feeling this the equal to Hitler's (and Stalin's) Invasion of Poland. Ukraine is putting up a fierce resistance against an invader who wants to erase their identity from the map.

The Munich moment was perhaps annexation of Crimea, and extending the hostilities to Donbass. Appeasement won. Before that, there were South Ossetia and Abkhazia effectively annexed from Georgia and Transnistria annexed from Moldova.

Is it global war, does China decide Russia can't lose the war? Or, if appeasement wins again, does Putin walk away as a self declared winner of this war, too.

Bad and worse choices. We seem to be heading towards a world where no longer there can be power vacuums, any weak spots will be filled by force if necessary.

On the other hand, maybe this war shows how useless massive military forces have become.  If your intention isn't total genocide, then they seem like more trouble than they are worth.  At this point, the West is holding off the Russians' most massive possible non-nuclear attack by dumping their excess stocks of semi-obsolescent stuff into Ukraine while devoting maybe 2.5% of their GDP to reducing Russia's already totally lame GDP to less than it was (which wasn't much).  For what it's worth (and I'm usually wrong), I think what will happen is:
1) Ukraine holds on, maybe takes some territory back
2) stalemate (to Ukraine's advantage I think)
3) Putin dies
4) we get some kind of eternal demilitarized zone, like a Gaza strip or Cyprus or Sinai the size of some big chunk of Ukraine
5) everybody hates it, but it more or less gets swept under the rug as a mess the UN (or some other ad hoc group has to deal with
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 12, 2023, 09:41:15 AM
If Putin dies how deep/comprehensive is his succession plan?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 12, 2023, 10:27:25 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 12, 2023, 09:41:15 AMIf Putin dies how deep/comprehensive is his succession plan?

  Good question.  There's no reliable information on that that I have seen, however, I would think (and I'm usually
wrong) that his successors are likely to be some kind of power-sharing tribunal to spread the blame around and to make assassination relatively cost-ineffective.  Personal survival would be the main aim of the tribunal and reducing the strain of a massive and pointless war would seem like an area where they could manage things so obscurely as to get some kind of acquiescence from lots of people.  As a figure-head, Putin may already be fading from the scene and his nominal successor would be an equivalent obscurely fading person.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2023, 10:39:49 AM
someone wasnt paying attention to the front.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1634813673662300160
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 12, 2023, 10:42:50 AM
I would tend to think Putin's "succession plan" amounts to "snorf!"

He has a LEGACY plan, no doubt; that's what he's working on in Ukraine (and failing at). I have a hard time even imagining he has a succession plan; and even if he does, it probably changes every week (so might as well be no plan); and even if it happens not to change this week, he'd be playing those cards verrrrrrry close to his chest.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 12, 2023, 10:50:52 AM
Re Ukraine as Poland: thank God and everyone else applicable, then, that so far there's no Stalin to flank Poland against Putler (and doesn't seem like there will be? Unless Turkey loses their minds and decides to invade across the Black Sea??) And Ukraine has so far gotten much more helpful support than Poland did. And Putin's military was an incompetent wreck even BEFORE he tried the opening full-court press. (Although in hindsight, his only hope at not exposing how bad off his military already was, was to score a quick technical knockout with an early full-court press, or mixed metaphors to that effect.)

On the other hand, Hitler (and Stalin) didn't have nukes to throw in a fit of pique, threatening to end human civilization along with more actual human persons than in any war ever so far. And his successors (per the prior topic) tend to be a lot more mouthy than even Putin about using those things pronto.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 12, 2023, 11:00:00 AM
Meanwhile, Peter Zeihan (lecturing at a university somewhere) explains rather well why, despite our eye-rolling at the rhetoric, this really is an existential crisis for Russia as a nation.

Filmed in December 2022, but still applicable in mid-March today (it may have been posted here back then, but worth recalling):


The highlight reel, with repeating epic music in the way and overproduced short-attention-span illustrative footage...  :uglystupid2: But otherwise helpful (even in some of the footage) as a summary:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 12, 2023, 11:07:44 AM
Somewhat updated version of the lecture from a month ago, in Louisiana (which is where German manfuacturing is currently packing up to relocate):



I should add that he thinks (as of a few weeks ago, Feb 28th), this is still Russia's war to lose, and that they can still pull out a win, albeit only a pyhrric one (or however that's spelled) at a strategic level because they'll have ruined what remains of their economy and military to do it. I don't think he thinks Russia's economy will tank fast enough to call off the war early, even though it's going to zero regardless right now; but I'm not sure he's taking enough problems with command and control into account. Throwing zerg rushes at Ukraine from several directions didn't work the first time (as he's well aware) for precisely those reasons, on the Russian side of the failure; and the C&C plus logistic situation for Russia has gotten worse, a LOT worse, since then. Putting it another way, zerg rushes work in Starcraft because C&C plus logistics aren't a factor! Russia didn't win her big fights in the past on manpower alone, and for all practical purposes Russia is about down now, almost literally, to 'manpower alone'.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 12, 2023, 04:23:33 PM
What would a Russian loss mean for the country? If Russia loses and then fails, that would also be no good for the entire world, with 1000s of loose nukes and probably more wars erupting as the whole state collapses into smaller pieces. Very similar to the USSR's collapse and subsequent wars for the last 30 years but perhaps worse.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 12, 2023, 05:58:41 PM
I'll take my chances with that rather than allowing Putin and the nationalists remain in control, cause we will just repeat this again in a decade or two.  They need to hit rock bottom this time so real change can happen.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2023, 07:25:08 PM
fuck russians
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 13, 2023, 07:26:54 AM
I would rather have real progress than only real change, but admittedly the former can't come without the latter.

Which, ironically, is the provision, taken to its logical extreme, which got us all into this mess back in 1918.  :tongue: (But it's change, real change, really! If it's change it must be progress, but you'll see the progress later, we promise DON'T TRY TO LEAVE OR STOP US, OR WE SHOOT YOU COMRADE, AS THE PEOPLE'S ENEMY OF PROGRESS AND HOPE AND CHANGE!  :nono2: )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2023, 10:13:34 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1635272770681724928
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 13, 2023, 10:15:49 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 12, 2023, 09:41:15 AMIf Putin dies how deep/comprehensive is his succession plan?

  ISW reported by CNN:

Russia's Ministry of Defense is likely using the assault on Bakhmut to degrade Wagner forces in order to weaken Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the private military company, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

I guess this is one way to control power in Russia.  Kind of Machiavellian, but it just might work:  make your competitors in a power struggle throw away their forces in a pointless war.  Wait.  That might be a situational problem for more than just Yevgeny Prigozhin.  I mean pointless wars don't just grow on trees, so who else might be
wrecking their power in a pointless war?  Hmmm?  I wonder.  Maybe Russia needs this war so as to:
a) throw the right people out of windows all over town
b) strangle the right people with their own belts
c) wreck the economy
d) destroy any traces of any remaining prestige or credibility
e) blow up a lot of stuff
f) waste all your "high-tech" missiles blowing up apartment buildings
g) get your fleet destroyed
h) have people stop buying your weapons
i) buy re-engineered American stuff from Iran
J) let China and India run Asia
K) learn to develop better plans for a change?
 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2023, 10:18:35 AM
https://nypost.com/2023/03/12/russia-loses-1090-soldiers-in-reported-deadliest-day-of-war/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 13, 2023, 04:06:59 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 13, 2023, 10:15:49 AMI guess this is one way to control power in Russia.  Kind of Machiavellian, but it just might work: 
 

I am re-reading Dan Jones' excellent "The Wars of Roses". It is shocking to read about the utter depravity and brutal power grabs of the late medieval English aristocracy.

Back in those days, you grabbed your rival in the middle of night, tried him or her for treason, and then chopped their head off all before breakfast.

You had lords switching back and forth between factions at the drop of a hat.

But then I see Russia today...and while the country, time and mode of killing are different, Russia today comes across to me as very medieval. 

https://www.amazon.com/Wars-Roses-Fall-Plantagenets-Tudors/dp/0143127888/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1678741164&sr=8-1 (https://www.amazon.com/Wars-Roses-Fall-Plantagenets-Tudors/dp/0143127888/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1678741164&sr=8-1)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 13, 2023, 05:19:51 PM
The study that Meng quoted on the last page raises some interesting questions.  While we agree that Wagner has been spending recruits' blood like it was water in and around Bakhmut, we don't know why.

One possible explanation might be that Prigozhin has run afoul of his rivals within the Putinista Cabal, and he's now being tasked with an almost-impossible mission in order to wear down his own forces and weaken his position vis-a-vis the regular Russian military.  If that's the case, the horrific casualties being inflicted on Russian troops might not be spilling over to affect the rest of the military.  I've no idea whether that might be true, which units have been involved in the Bakhmut fighting over the last 4 months, or which units have taken how many casualties?

Fog of War sucks, doesn't it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 14, 2023, 06:14:33 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 13, 2023, 05:19:51 PMThe study that Meng quoted on the last page raises some interesting questions.  While we agree that Wagner has been spending recruits' blood like it was water in and around Bakhmut, we don't know why.

One possible explanation might be that Prigozhin has run afoul of his rivals within the Putinista Cabal, and he's now being tasked with an almost-impossible mission in order to wear down his own forces and weaken his position vis-a-vis the regular Russian military.  If that's the case, the horrific casualties being inflicted on Russian troops might not be spilling over to affect the rest of the military.  I've no idea whether that might be true, which units have been involved in the Bakhmut fighting over the last 4 months, or which units have taken how many casualties?

Fog of War sucks, doesn't it?

Supposedly (and this happened about a month ago or so), the regular Russian army and a naval infantry force attacked at Vuhledar and suffered catastrophic losses so quickly and thoroughly that you have to wonder if the Ukrainians aren't using their best forces mostly in places other than Bakhmut.

ISW seems to think that a lot of what the Russians are doing (such as all the rather pointless use of massive missile strikes on civilian Ukrainians) has more to do with fighting an "information war" with its own internal factions.  So it is possible that the Russian war aim at this point amounts to an internal PR campaign to make various factions around Putin look good before they get thrown out of a window or something.

Speaking of the Wars of Roses, Putin and/or his successors might be the "moral equivalent" (thank you again Teddy Roosevelt) of Henry VI sitting under a tree somewhere wondering what is going on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 14, 2023, 08:21:32 AM
I am 1000% sure Putin is not anything like an equivalent of Henry VI. But he might believe he knows what's really going on while constantly being surprised because people refuse to tell him the truth (as well as being unable to keep his own pathological lies straight.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 14, 2023, 09:25:33 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 14, 2023, 08:21:32 AMI am 1000% sure Putin is not anything like an equivalent of Henry VI. But he might believe he knows what's really going on while constantly being surprised because people refuse to tell him the truth (as well as being unable to keep his own pathological lies straight.)


+1 But I might go with Putin being closer to King John "Softsword" (Richard the Lionhart's wayward brother...and the man who brought us the Magna Carta...not by his choice of course).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 09:39:32 AM
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends?utm_social-type=owned&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=tny&source=Paid_Soc_FB_0_BoostedPosts_0_NYR_US_ProspectingBroad_CM_PAC_Facebook_Mobile_Feed_&utm_campaign=Paid_Boosted_Traffic_&utm_boosted-type=Soc_FBIG_DR_BAUCM_Traffic&fbclid=IwAR1uiAIyDAUrh7wWybnUzEOqgSBvG5m6OvzaicKvK-mYvD6do9aq4Zn0zSI&ad_id=23853281468880548&campaign_id=23852589072050548&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=paid
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 14, 2023, 10:21:24 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 14, 2023, 09:25:33 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 14, 2023, 08:21:32 AMI am 1000% sure Putin is not anything like an equivalent of Henry VI. But he might believe he knows what's really going on while constantly being surprised because people refuse to tell him the truth (as well as being unable to keep his own pathological lies straight.)


+1 But I might go with Putin being closer to King John "Softsword" (Richard the Lionhart's wayward brother...and the man who brought us the Magna Carta...not by his choice of course).

That seems about right: he was more punchy than people often gather (despite also being nicknamed "Lackland".) The Lionheart's good Crusading buddy King Philip respected John at least, in competing for the Continent.

Or a combination of Richard II and III, without any of their positive qualities.

(....why yes, I did finish screening Shakespeare's cycle of historical English kings recently, plus historical commentary from Churchill, Chesterton, and..... some other guy I never had heard of but who wrote a commentary specifically to work with the plays. Will find his book again at the house later for recommendation.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 14, 2023, 10:26:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 09:39:32 AMRemnick's New Yorker article  (https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends?utm_social-type=owned&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=tny&source=Paid_Soc_FB_0_BoostedPosts_0_NYR_US_ProspectingBroad_CM_PAC_Facebook_Mobile_Feed_&utm_campaign=Paid_Boosted_Traffic_&utm_boosted-type=Soc_FBIG_DR_BAUCM_Traffic&fbclid=IwAR1uiAIyDAUrh7wWybnUzEOqgSBvG5m6OvzaicKvK-mYvD6do9aq4Zn0zSI&ad_id=23853281468880548&campaign_id=23852589072050548&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=paid)on how the war may end in a settlement.

Plus Kotkin's previous interview (https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin) for past reference and comparison.

(Probably beyond the paywall though.)

For the longer audio version of the more recent interview, try here. (https://link.chtbl.com/qOucM248)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 10:27:12 AM
ya great, start a British history thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 14, 2023, 10:39:11 AM
QuoteLet's think of a house. Let's say that you own a house and it has ten rooms. And let's say that I barge in and take two of those rooms away, and I wreck those rooms. And, from those two rooms, I'm wrecking your other eight rooms and you're trying to beat me back. You're trying to evict me from the two rooms. You push out a little corner, you push out another corner, maybe. But I'm still there and I'm still wrecking. And the thing is, you need your house. That's where you live. It's your house and you don't have another. Me, I've got another house, and my other house has a thousand rooms. And, so, if I wreck your house, are you winning or am I winning?

I notice this analogy for Russia still "winning" the battlefield, only works if Kotkin isn't simultaneously tearing down his own house and bankrupting himself and killing his kids to go after the other house and stay there.

Kotkin knows Putin's side is also a disaster and he's wrecking his own house, too (albeit in a different way). I don't know how he doesn't take that into account in estimating that Russia is (still) winning the battlefield. No evidence that Russia's forces are disintegrating in the field?!? Sure, he's throwing in (quasi-) mobilized replacements, but (1) he had to do that due to disintegration on the field, and (2) what are they actually doing? They certainly aren't all on the frontline yet (if ever), but the ones who are there, what's happening with them? "Not disintegrating" doesn't seem to be an accurate answer (yet, if ever).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 12:24:36 PM
well this is interesting. 

Per @US_EUCOM
, "At approximately 7:03 AM CET, a Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller an MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner."

I kinda feel bad for our pilots that will now have to fly 12 hour escort missions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 14, 2023, 12:57:55 PM
More from BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 14, 2023, 01:02:59 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 12:24:36 PMwell this is interesting. 

Per @US_EUCOM
, "At approximately 7:03 AM CET, a Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller an MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner."

I kinda feel bad for our pilots that will now have to fly 12 hour escort missions.

Depending on sensors and other kit, an MQ-9 is very expensive. So in addition to safety and other issues, this is not a trivial event.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 01:27:33 PM
about $20 to $25 million for this version and IIRC the Pentagon is starting to phase them out.
fun fact, these can be armed with Sidewinders.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 14, 2023, 05:25:38 PM
That's a very fun fact.

BTW, when will we start hearing about smoking accidents associated with the JDAMs?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 14, 2023, 05:47:18 PM
We and the Russians continue to play games of "chicken" over the Black Sea. 

Reapers aren't cheap, but I suspect that one thing we've learned from modern, high-intensity warfare is that expensive drones like Reapers are a lot better suited to low-intensity conflict in counterinsurgency ops.  I'm a little surprised that a jet could collide with anything bigger than a basketball and both vehicles didn't end up in the ditch.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 14, 2023, 06:18:59 PM
From Politico:

**

The narrative that Ukraine's military is headed toward certain victory against Russia has recently taken quite the hit.

Two weeks ago, NPR's FRANK LANGFITT reported that both Ukraine and Russia have torn through their best-trained and most-experienced troops. After a year of fighting, both forces now rely heavily on conscripts — a development that favors Russia since Moscow has more people it can call up than Kyiv.

Then Monday evening, the Washington Post's ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN, PAUL SONNE and KAREN DeYOUNG dug even deeper, reporting that pessimism and fear is sweeping through Ukrainian ranks.

KUPOL, a lieutenant colonel, told the Post that his battalion is "unrecognizable" from the group he started out with. "Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops."

"We don't have the people or weapons," a senior Ukrainian official also told them. "And you know the ratio: When you're on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can't afford to lose that many people."

**

Oh shit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 07:09:41 PM
what makes you think you haven't been?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 15, 2023, 06:01:38 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 14, 2023, 06:18:59 PMFrom Politico:

**

The narrative that Ukraine's military is headed toward certain victory against Russia has recently taken quite the hit.


 As victories go, Ukraine won a big one as soon as they decided to fight the initial invasion and then more victories when they crushed the invading forces and then a few more when they took back big parts of their territory.

  So yes, how this war is going to end is still very much up in the air, but stopping the Russians and then inflicting heavy losses and taking territory back and holding on in the face of what would seem to be the best
the Russians can do offensively, does seem promising in the sense that the Russians aren't going anywhere any time soon.  I do have the sense that the Ukrainians would do well to hang on for the moment and not take any risks precisely because they are definitely ahead in terms of victories.  But again, I at least, have no clear idea how this all will end except that it is likely to:
a) go on in some form for years
b) end up with some kind of supervised demilitarized zone
c) not end with the collapse of Russia
d) not end with a clear Ukrainian victory
e) of course, I'm usually wrong
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 07:51:36 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 12:24:36 PM{From the US-EUCOM} Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner.

"HOW DARE THEY BE ENVIRONMENTALLY UNSOUND!"  :tickedoff:  :grin:

As for being unprofessionally reckless... well, if you're a pilot trying to soft-kill a drone, I don't know what else could be tried, short of secret short-range high-intensity EW tech, which even if they had they wouldn't want to use on a drone without being dead sure the drone wouldn't survive to transmit any detection of the attempt. I rather admire the pilot for trying hard, and succeeding!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 07:54:01 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 07:09:41 PMwhat makes you think you haven't been?

...I feel like some words are missing there. Was this about smoking accidents involving JDAMS?  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 10:18:27 AM
Here's a (Daily?) Telegraph article talking about the possibility of Putin using Bakhmut as a convenient way to reduce the political influence of the Wagner mercs.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-next-civil-war-has-already-begun/ar-AA18CKhn?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1c4cc5cdc3a54dafbfee482ace21d511&ei=23
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 15, 2023, 11:09:32 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 07:51:36 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 12:24:36 PM{From the US-EUCOM} Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner.

"HOW DARE THEY BE ENVIRONMENTALLY UNSOUND!"  :tickedoff:  :grin:

As for being unprofessionally reckless... well, if you're a pilot trying to soft-kill a drone, I don't know what else could be tried, short of secret short-range high-intensity EW tech, which even if they had they wouldn't want to use on a drone without being dead sure the drone wouldn't survive to transmit any detection of the attempt. I rather admire the pilot for trying hard, and succeeding!

  Not exactly a soft kill, ramming it or bumping into it -- which by the way has been a technique for hard-killing drones since the days when you could wing-flip a V1 (once the V1 was upside down, its gyroscopic system would dive it into the ground in an effort to correct its altitude).

  I'm not sure how dumping fuel on a drone would knock down the drone.  Maybe the fuel dump was a way to make the attacking plane more responsive to the small control changes needed to bump the drone.

  Or so they could see the slip-stream from the drone -- with 19 runs at the drone they had plenty of time to think about what might happen if they misjudged knocking it down and crashed themselve doing it -- which would be pretty embarrassing I woould think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 15, 2023, 11:28:56 AM
I interpreted the fuel dumping as symbolic...literally taking a dump on the U.S. and the West.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 12:03:10 PM
I interpreted it as hoping the drone's engine temps would combust. Though symbolism works, too, to be fair.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 15, 2023, 01:31:38 PM
From what I heard dumping fuel on the drone scrambled it's detection and scanning gear. 

I remember a number of years ago an incident in which a Russian plane expelled fuel onto a US fighter jet in an attempt to compel the pilot to do something rash.


EDIT: For fun try spilling gasoline (a solvent) onto your powered up computer motherboard and see what happens.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 15, 2023, 01:50:00 PM
^NOT RECOMMENDED
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 15, 2023, 02:16:51 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 15, 2023, 01:50:00 PM^NOT RECOMMENDED
Unless you want to get a faster computer and this will give you a good excuse for the wife (unless you let her in before the fumes dissapate).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 02:18:29 PM
"I think some computers just spontaneously detonate, dear! -- the heat turns the inside into solvent! We need a computer with REALLY good cooling this time..."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 02:50:56 PM
Pretend I wasn't too lazy to create a version of the meme: Russia and China are walking along the sidewalk, but China turns around to check out the finer Qatar who just walked past them while Putin looks insulted!

Now that you have this famous meme photo in mind...


If China itself can survive long enough to get onto Qatar's natural gas, Russia practically loses its biggest trading partner to keep itself and its expansion policies solvent.

(Despite the clickbaity thumbnail title, Qatar isn't doing this to stop Russia's border invasions.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 03:06:10 PM
On March 8th, novelist Jack Carr's Danger Close podcast hosted Peter Zeihan, who picks up kind of where he stops in the prior lectures (with China's downfall), as a plausibly easy way to explain the Balloon.

He gets to Russia's war strategies and problems eventually, of course, although he goes back first to the end of WW2 and how that sets up Russia's problems today.


I will add that his attempt at parring Year Two of the Ukraine invasion to Soviet Russia's WW2 comeback from Stalingrad onward, kind of fails, however: Stalin's rock-star level generals were still going, and still VERY talented (as the Nazi high command grudgingly admitted); and Stalin wasn't simply throwing conscript-level bodies at the problem to win. He was doing that to buy time, of course, but what he dealt out steadily for the win was around 2 million core troops (plus fill-up auxiliaries) who had been doing elite training as airmobile and air assault, which Stalin didn't strictly need anymore, and who got handed the top quality gear which wasn't (to say the least) being given to the conscripts being shuttled across the river to Pavlov's House with one rifle and two clips for every pair of grunts.

I don't really understand why Zeihan thinks 750K troops will even stand up on the frontline(s) in Ukraine, or why the attempt to add 500K wouldn't completely shatter Russia's remaining Command, Control, and Communications. He shows occasionally that he knows their backfield situation; and he doesn't indicate anything to even suggest that's going to improve even up to the kickoff standard which he himself acknowledges sunk their original invasion with far fewer (and relatively better equipped and supplied) troops.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2023, 06:06:23 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 07:54:01 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2023, 07:09:41 PMwhat makes you think you haven't been?

...I feel like some words are missing there. Was this about smoking accidents involving JDAMS?  :ThumbsUp:

yes
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2023, 06:17:14 PM
heres my take on it.

Quote from: Gusington on March 14, 2023, 06:18:59 PMFrom Politico:

**

The narrative that Ukraine's military is headed toward certain victory against Russia has recently taken quite the hit.  not seeing that from the information I read through.

Two weeks ago, NPR's FRANK LANGFITT reported that both Ukraine and Russia have torn through their best-trained and most-experienced troops. After a year of fighting, both forces now rely heavily on conscripts — a development that favors Russia since Moscow has more people it can call up than Kyiv.  I would say that the Ukraine is doing far better in this regard then is publicized.  they retrieve their wounded and have troops rotating through every NATO weapons school.

Then Monday evening, the Washington Post's ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN, PAUL SONNE and KAREN DeYOUNG dug even deeper, reporting that pessimism and fear is sweeping through Ukrainian ranks. and whats the size of this sample pool?

KUPOL, a lieutenant colonel, told the Post that his battalion is "unrecognizable" from the group he started out with. "Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops."  from what front and what series of battles?

"We don't have the people or weapons," a senior Ukrainian official also told them. ya, because those people are at NATO training centers getting certified on a whole new class of weapons.  "And you know the ratio: When you're on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can't afford to lose that many people."  no they can't and the next tranche of weapons lets them outrange the soviets by quite a margin.

**

Oh shit.  calm down
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2023, 06:47:00 PM
You need to diversify your sources and the "information" you consume. It's obviously very biased.

Here is a pretty balanced article that assesses the upcoming challenges that will be faced by Ukraine.

The opening sums it up well. This is only the end of the beginning.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/17/putin-s-war-against-ukraine-end-of-beginning-pub-89071 (https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/17/putin-s-war-against-ukraine-end-of-beginning-pub-89071)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2023, 07:20:42 PM
Ive been posting balanced articles for months.  glad to see you off fox news.
I find this line interesting as the russians have already launched their winter offensive and its been failing nicely.  I get the impression that the AFUK are waiting for new NATO toys and better weather.
QuoteBoth are preparing to launch major offensives in the near future.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2023, 07:53:33 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2023, 07:20:42 PMIve been posting balanced articles for months. 

That's not my impression of the vast majority of what you post. That is, the content that isn't worthless crap you dredge up off of TikTok. The only person I know who relies on that service as much as you do is my 9-year old.


Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2023, 07:20:42 PMglad to see you off Fox News.

Ah, yes. The go-to insult of the intellectually bankrupt and the hopelessly brainwashed. Bravo Zulu.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2023, 08:03:20 PM
while that article has some good points in its last section it glosses over a lot.

QuoteIts defense factories are operating "around the clock," and Putin has pledged to spend as much as it takes to supply his troops.
they literally cant make enough stuff to replace combat losses or replace munition stocks.

QuoteWith every new weapons system provided to Ukraine, hopes rise for a breakthrough and a decisive turn in the course of the war. Yet that decisive breakthrough has so far eluded the Ukrainian army.
this seems to forget the offensives from late summer last year which did lead to breakthroughs and the retaking of quite a lot of territory.

QuoteOffensive operations are an inherently more difficult form of warfare than defense.
back to Ukraine getting NATO training standards for just this event.

QuoteRussia has suffered massive casualties—reportedly 200,000 dead and wounded. Ukraine's losses are estimated at 100,000. While Russian losses are reported widely, the extent of Ukrainian losses is less well known.
this part is intersting for a lot of reasons.  russia has burned through most of its initial invasion force and then called up another 300k people.  they seem to be getting there ass kicked as well and there are rumors of another 400k call up.  then add all of the men of fighting age that simply left the country last year so they wouldnt have to fight.  theyre digging into the people that drive a large part of their economy in both skilled and unskilled labor.  hows that going to work out long term?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2023, 08:07:48 PM
QuoteThat's not my impression of the vast majority of what you post.
of course it isnt.  in fact Id be surprised if you have read any of the articles Ive posted in this thread at all.
I also dont use tiktok at all so....

QuoteAh, yes. The go-to insult of the intellectually bankrupt and the hopelessly brainwashed. Bravo Zulu.
last I checked I havent been insulting anyone here.  it would seem that most of the grenades that have gone off in this thread had the pinned pulled by you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 15, 2023, 08:33:19 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2023, 08:07:48 PM
QuoteThat's not my impression of the vast majority of what you post.
of course it isnt.  in fact Id be surprised if you have read any of the articles Ive posted in this thread at all.
I also dont use tiktok at all so....

QuoteAh, yes. The go-to insult of the intellectually bankrupt and the hopelessly brainwashed. Bravo Zulu.
last I checked I havent been insulting anyone hear.  it would seem that most of the grenades that have gone off in this thread had the pinned pulled by you.

I can't argue with a guy who tries to insult someone and then in practically the next post claims he never insults anyone. Delusional.

...and I meant twitter. Same twitch style garbage.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 15, 2023, 08:45:09 PM
you fail to understand that my remark wasnt an insult.
Im genuinely proud of you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 10:18:15 PM
Can't we all just fondly remember the time a Wagner BTG tried to take an oil site from American troops and triggered an overpowered ShootX from all in-range artillery and airpower (up to and including B-52s) until we got tired of winning?


In hindsight, maybe Putin really WAS trying to reduce Wagner's political clout...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 16, 2023, 12:21:20 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 15, 2023, 10:18:15 PMCan't we all just fondly remember the time a Wagner BTG tried to take an oil site from American troops and triggered an overpowered ShootX from all in-range artillery and airpower (up to and including B-52s) until we got tired of winning?


In hindsight, maybe Putin really WAS trying to reduce Wagner's political clout...

Any of you guys remember this when it happened in 2018 ?

I feel like it's been brought up a lot since rise of wagner in the Ukraine war.  Don't really remember it much in the press in 2018.

Also, there's several versions of the story that all vary with the amount of Russians present or killed.  Some say 15, some say 200, some say none.

What is confirmed is a large hostile force  attacked our composite force of Americans and Syrian rebels, and was vaporized by arty and air power.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2023, 12:34:43 AM
I remember it fondly.  :Dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 16, 2023, 05:13:06 AM
https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1636306622015238144
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 16, 2023, 06:46:47 AM
Video on BBC shows a second pass by the jet where it was dumping fuel and ended up hitting the drone.  Video goes out briefly and when it returns you can see that one of the prop blades is bent.  Don't look like intentional collision to me.  Stupid pilot!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64975766
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 16, 2023, 07:15:59 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2023, 12:34:43 AMI remember it fondly.  :Dreamer:

I had legitimately forgotten it happened back in 2018!! -- which from the context (Syrian conflict) you'd think I'd have remembered. Until I watched the video, I felt like it had been only around 2020 or something like that. (I guess in a way it was "around" 2020...)

In other news, I'm getting old. 2018 is already so long ago..... (Evidently we haven't recovered the old white beard smiley talking about the old days. It would, admittedly, be totally redundant on this site.  :grin:  )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 16, 2023, 07:54:58 AM
I think it is necessary to view the drone incident objectively. Yes, it was reckless, negligent, aggressive and provocative, but under the circumstances, not entirely unjustified. The US is openly, as a matter of declared policy, supplying massive quantities of lethal weapons to Ukraine that are being used to kill Russian soldiers and destroy Russian equipment. Furthermore, these drones are being used to gather intelligence that is being supplied to Ukraine to great effect. Finally, the interception was relatively low risk, as the US does not consider attacks on drones, generally, as a basis for armed retaliation. Several drones were downed over Syria with no military response. In short, I don't really see a down side for Russia and it gives them the opportunity to argue that they are actively confronting NATO while also not risking a greater escalation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 16, 2023, 08:41:15 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 16, 2023, 07:54:58 AMI think it is necessary to view the drone incident objectively. Yes, it was reckless, negligent, aggressive and provocative, but under the circumstances, not entirely unjustified. The US is openly, as a matter of declared policy, supplying massive quantities of lethal weapons to Ukraine that are being used to kill Russian soldiers and destroy Russian equipment. Furthermore, these drones are being used to gather intelligence that is being supplied to Ukraine to great effect. Finally, the interception was relatively low risk, as the US does not consider attacks on drones, generally, as a basis for armed retaliation. Several drones were downed over Syria with no military response. In short, I don't really see a down side for Russia and it gives them the opportunity to argue that they are actively confronting NATO while also not risking a greater escalation.

I have to give them a begrudging bit of respect for the out of box thinking they did in bringing down the drone.  It seems clear the collision was accidental, and what they really wanted to do was disable the drone by dumping fuel on it (which I understand may actually disable the drone).  This tactic is a winner in terms of potentially achieving a kinetic kill using the least provocative measure possible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on March 16, 2023, 09:54:06 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 16, 2023, 05:13:06 AMhttps://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1636306622015238144

An excellent justification for providing Ukraine: A) Fighter jets they need to achieve air superiority. B) ATACMS to hit the Russian bases.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 16, 2023, 10:26:28 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 16, 2023, 08:41:15 AMI have to give them a begrudging bit of respect for the out of box thinking they did in bringing down the drone. ....

I am somewhat surprised it has taken the Russians this long to do it.

I could be very wrong, but I get the general sense that the Russian military is starting to get its "sea legs" after many, many, many, hard lessons and mistakes. They still have a long way to go for competence, but they aren't making as many really stupid OPSEC mistakes; like letting NATO / Ukrainian sensors know where the Russian generals are located for example.

But I don't think that means the Russian MoD knows how to conduct a major offensive...yet. It was only a month ago that the Russian army was biting the big one in their own non-Wagner offensives.

I think it just means that the Russian MoD are starting to know how to conduct a war of attrition.

However, maybe all of that learned "competence" goes out the window if the Ukrainians do conduct an offensive (I would love to see some Russian units shatter). 

I also think that is why we are seeing Russian MoD push back so hard on Wagner recently...the MoD is feeling those "sea legs."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 16, 2023, 10:42:57 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 16, 2023, 08:41:15 AMseems clear the collision was accidental, and what they really wanted to do was disable the drone by dumping fuel on it (which I understand may actually disable the drone).  This tactic is a winner in terms of potentially achieving a kinetic kill using the least provocative measure possible.

  The fuel or the collision only stopped the drone camera for about a minute, so I'm not sure how effective the
fuel thing is and for that matter making 19 passes seems more maximally twisted goofy passive-aggressive than
least provocative.  After x number of passes you're likely to "accidentally" hit the drone sooner or later fuel dumping goofyness or no. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 16, 2023, 10:47:05 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 16, 2023, 07:54:58 AMIn short, I don't really see a down side for Russia and it gives them the opportunity to argue that they are actively confronting NATO while also not risking a greater escalation.

 I guess as a PR event it is not too bad, but are they going to dump fuel and bump into drones from now on or is
it just another weird Russian PR stunt like having the Patriarch denounce people who don't like Harry Potter for the wrong reasons?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 16, 2023, 01:37:00 PM
Poland says it broke up a Russian sabotage ring who were planning to disrupt shipments to Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/poland-breaks-up-russian-spy-ring-suspected-of-planning-attack-on-military-supply-routes-to-ukraine/ar-AA18IoNt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4a69de030d114335bb59c58f258be111&ei=62 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/poland-breaks-up-russian-spy-ring-suspected-of-planning-attack-on-military-supply-routes-to-ukraine/ar-AA18IoNt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4a69de030d114335bb59c58f258be111&ei=62)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 16, 2023, 03:40:22 PM
If that had gone down, would that be grounds for article 5 ?  Could Poland go boots on the ground in Ukraine with out NATO ?  Most poles would support a polish only incursion into Ukraine.  Poland views the Zelenski led Ukraine as vital to their security and they are chomping at the bit to get in the fight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 16, 2023, 05:04:35 PM
Does anyone know if the "NATO" Mig 29's have the ability to fire longer range missiles?  I recall the Ukrainian's complaining about how out-ranged they were against the Russian planes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 16, 2023, 06:11:27 PM
I'm not certain, but I kind of think that they don't have the ultra-long range AAMs that the Russian CAP is flying over the front lines in Ukraine.  That said, land-based SAMs on the Ukrainian side with longer range can push that Ukrainian CAP back a bit deeper. 

Lots of cat-and-mouse stuff going on there on both sides.

I'm still astonished that a Russian jet could initiate a head-on impact with anything even the size of a garbage can (much less a Predator) and not flame out.  IF the Russian jet had initiated a head-on collision and both craft had perished in a fireball, I'm betting that the Russians would have claimed that the Predator initiated the collision to save face.

One of the oldest trick of dictators and would-be dictators is to drum up fear of some "other" to rally your own people and get them looking somewhere besides home, where the government is normally totally screwing things up.

The whole point of getting in a fight with some other country is to focus the fear of the people on somebody besides yourself.

That said, the Russians are flying their planes through international airspace with impunity to launch attacks on Ukraine, and NATO has responded by flying a lot of their intelligence assets right up against international airspace to give the Ukrainians better targeting info.  There's been some curious back-and-forthing from the Pentagon on exactly what they're doing, but those agencies aren't really in the business of consistently telling the truth, nor should they be.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2023, 06:52:19 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 16, 2023, 05:04:35 PMDoes anyone know if the "NATO" Mig 29's have the ability to fire longer range missiles?  I recall the Ukrainian's complaining about how out-ranged they were against the Russian planes.

well if Ukrainian Mig-29s can fire HARMS, who knows what Polish Migs can shoot these days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2023, 07:01:56 PM
very reliable ammunition  :ROFL:
glad their factories are working around the clock.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1636332146129350656
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 16, 2023, 07:12:44 PM
FarAway Sooner, the Russians approached from behind.   The Reaper has a pusher prop. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on March 16, 2023, 07:35:37 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/ZcxD2mT/behind.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 16, 2023, 09:49:09 PM
Today I discovered Task and Purpose (whom I've linked for a few articles in the past), has a YT channel!

(It is of course entirely possible that others have been posting vids from them upthread and I missed it)

So here's an ep from a few days ago on Russia's weird ongoing armor 'doctrine' (for want of a better word). Though it's really more about a focus on why Vuhledar is so important for both sides, as a basis for illustrating Russia's group teamwork problems.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 16, 2023, 10:03:10 PM
The comment thread on that video is well worth thumbing through, too. For example:

QuoteHello, I'm from Poland and one of our retired colonels who was trained in Soviet drill has a theory. The general in charge of this front was ordered to attack Wuhledar. What could he do? three things. Make a wide-ranging attack with the majority of his forces. Maybe he would take the city, maybe not. And then  he would lose a large part of his own strength and be dismissed for it. The second way out is modest offensive and reconnaissance activities. He would have spared his forces, but the general staff would have considered that he had not carried out the attack, that he had broken orders = resignation. Two bad exits. So instead the general attacks with a small part of his force to be able to report that he is attacking, and the HQ can confirm this by seeing that he is taking casualties. The general is promoted for exemplary execution of orders.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2023, 10:50:57 PM
so strange that Red Storm Rising or Hacketts WW3 would become worst case scenarios.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on March 17, 2023, 12:27:23 AM
Me and the boys got back in November. Some of us that is.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 06:45:19 AM
Quote from: DetCord on March 17, 2023, 12:27:23 AMMe and the boys got back in November. Some of us that is.

Welcome home, DetCord. I'm sorry for your losses. As you very well know, it is the ugly universal truth of war.  When you feel up to it and ready, I encourage you to share your experiences with the group. Your direct, first hand experience will be very valuable for us all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 17, 2023, 06:57:13 AM
Quote from: DetCord on March 17, 2023, 12:27:23 AMMe and the boys got back in November. Some of us that is.
Welcome home.  I'm glad you are back.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 17, 2023, 07:24:57 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 06:45:19 AM
Quote from: DetCord on March 17, 2023, 12:27:23 AMMe and the boys got back in November. Some of us that is.

Welcome home, DetCord. I'm sorry for your losses. As you very well know, it is the ugly universal truth of war.  When you feel up to it and ready, I encourage you to share your experiences with the group. Your direct, first hand experience will be very valuable for us all.

Hear hear!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 17, 2023, 07:37:11 AM
Good to have you back DetCord.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on March 17, 2023, 08:07:48 AM
A few more Migs for Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovak-government-send-mig-29-fighter-jets-ukraine-pm-2023-03-17/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on March 17, 2023, 11:37:43 AM
Quote from: DetCord on March 17, 2023, 12:27:23 AMMe and the boys got back in November. Some of us that is.

Welcome home. Thank you for helping defend liberal democracy against authoritarianism. Big respect.
Do you have any plans to write about your experiences in Ukraine?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 01:07:08 PM
Quote from: Groggy on March 17, 2023, 11:37:43 AM
Quote from: DetCord on March 17, 2023, 12:27:23 AMMe and the boys got back in November. Some of us that is.

Welcome home. Thank you for helping defend liberal democracy against authoritarianism. Big respect.
Do you have any plans to write about your experiences in Ukraine?

Is Ukraine a "liberal democracy"? Asking for a friend.  :juggler:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on March 17, 2023, 01:34:29 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 01:07:08 PMIs Ukraine a "liberal democracy"? Asking for a friend.  :juggler:

What a shame your friend fails to understand that Ukraine is bleeding on behalf of liberal democracy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 01:44:15 PM
Quote from: Groggy on March 17, 2023, 01:34:29 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 01:07:08 PMIs Ukraine a "liberal democracy"? Asking for a friend.  :juggler:

What a shame your friend fails to understand that Ukraine is bleeding on behalf of liberal democracy.

I mean, I'll tell him of his failure, but it was a serious question.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 02:10:35 PM
Framing the war as one of 'democracy versus authoritarianism' is a tactic used by the US and Europe to raise the stakes of the war and to generate political and moral support. However, in my friend's view, regarding the war in Ukraine as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism is misleading, misguided and somewhat naive. In truth, Ukrainian blood is more probably being spilled to preserve the post-WWII international legal order. Whether one thinks this is actually good for democracy or not, I suppose, is subjective. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 17, 2023, 02:40:38 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 02:10:35 PMFraming the war as one of 'democracy versus authoritarianism' is a tactic used by the US and Europe to raise the stakes of the war and to generate political and moral support. However, in my friend's view, regarding the war in Ukraine as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism is misleading, misguided and somewhat naive. In truth, Ukrainian blood is more probably being spilled to preserve the post-WWII international legal order. Whether one thinks this is actually good for democracy or not, I suppose, is subjective. 

  Aren't there lots of different ways to parse motivations in this war (or probably any war)? Some Ukrainians may be fighting for nationalistic or other ideological reasons that don't have much to do with more general concepts like liberal democracy.  Overall the Ukrainians might be fighting to preserve Ukraine (as a set of communities).  Some might be fighting because they are angry and aggrieved and want revenge.
Then there are many other motivations -- to deter Russia from pushing to control more territory for example...or indeed to
uphold the implied post-WWII standards that strongly discourage attacking neighboring sovereign entities except in self-defense (which the Russians keep bringing up as if the assault on Ukraine didn't look like...well a massive attack on a sovereign entity).
Defending liberal democracy probably isn't a primary motivation -- I think it's more the integrity of sovereign territories that causes the defensive reflex in the West.  The sequential take-overs of Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland and so on by Germany, and swathes of Finland, Moldavia and Poland by Russia at the beginning of WWII that provides the basic fear that drives the West, maybe even unconsciously
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 02:54:28 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 17, 2023, 02:40:38 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 02:10:35 PMFraming the war as one of 'democracy versus authoritarianism' is a tactic used by the US and Europe to raise the stakes of the war and to generate political and moral support. However, in my friend's view, regarding the war in Ukraine as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism is misleading, misguided and somewhat naive. In truth, Ukrainian blood is more probably being spilled to preserve the post-WWII international legal order. Whether one thinks this is actually good for democracy or not, I suppose, is subjective. 

  Aren't there lots of different ways to parse motivations in this war (or probably any war)? Some Ukrainians may be fighting for nationalistic or other ideological reasons that don't have much to do with more general concepts like liberal democracy.  Overall the Ukrainians might be fighting to preserve Ukraine (as a set of communities).  Some might be fighting because they are angry and aggrieved and want revenge.
Then there are many other motivations -- to deter Russia from pushing to control more territory for example...or indeed to
uphold the implied post-WWII standards that strongly discourage attacking neighboring sovereign entities except in self-defense (which the Russians keep bringing up as if the assault on Ukraine didn't look like...well a massive attack on a sovereign entity).
Defending liberal democracy probably isn't a primary motivation -- I think it's more the integrity of sovereign territories that causes the defensive reflex in the West.  The sequential take-overs of Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland and so on by Germany, and swathes of Finland, Moldavia and Poland by Russia at the beginning of WWII that provides the basic fear that drives the West, maybe even unconsciously

I'm not really talking about the average Ukrainian on the ground. I can assure you, most are fighting for their lives, their families and their homes. That is common in all wars. There are few idealists in fox holes.  I'm talking about the political and business special interests that are fighting to preserve the world order by encouraging the struggle at the macro level through claims, in part, that the war is one to preserve Democracy against authoritarianism.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 17, 2023, 03:09:43 PM
This may be a naive view, but even if Ukraine were themselves an authoritarian dictatorship, I still see battling Russia and making them bleed to be for the betterment of liberal democracies everywhere.  Though I can agree that "Democracy vs Authoritarianism" is an oversimplification.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 17, 2023, 03:25:58 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 02:54:28 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 17, 2023, 02:40:38 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 02:10:35 PMFraming the war as one of 'democracy versus authoritarianism' is a tactic used by the US and Europe to raise the stakes of the war and to generate political and moral support. However, in my friend's view, regarding the war in Ukraine as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism is misleading, misguided and somewhat naive. In truth, Ukrainian blood is more probably being spilled to preserve the post-WWII international legal order. Whether one thinks this is actually good for democracy or not, I suppose, is subjective. 

  Aren't there lots of different ways to parse motivations in this war (or probably any war)? Some Ukrainians may be fighting for nationalistic or other ideological reasons that don't have much to do with more general concepts like liberal democracy.  Overall the Ukrainians might be fighting to preserve Ukraine (as a set of communities).  Some might be fighting because they are angry and aggrieved and want revenge.
Then there are many other motivations -- to deter Russia from pushing to control more territory for example...or indeed to
uphold the implied post-WWII standards that strongly discourage attacking neighboring sovereign entities except in self-defense (which the Russians keep bringing up as if the assault on Ukraine didn't look like...well a massive attack on a sovereign entity).
Defending liberal democracy probably isn't a primary motivation -- I think it's more the integrity of sovereign territories that causes the defensive reflex in the West.  The sequential take-overs of Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland and so on by Germany, and swathes of Finland, Moldavia and Poland by Russia at the beginning of WWII that provides the basic fear that drives the West, maybe even unconsciously

I'm not really talking about the average Ukrainian on the ground. I can assure you, most are fighting for their lives, their families and their homes. That is common in all wars. There are few idealists in fox holes.  I'm talking about the political and business special interests that are fighting to preserve the world order by encouraging the struggle at the macro level through claims, in part, that the war is one to preserve Democracy against authoritarianism.

   There's a lot of inherent opacity to the motivation of political and business entities and that gets further obfuscated by the incoherence of Russia's justifications for attacking -- for example, the Russians seem to want to claim some kind of self-determination for the populations of their protectorates, but not for anyone else.  So that would appear to suggest some kind of questions of "democracy" are in play at some level.
   And then, the world order.  I hate to point out that the idea of sovereign integrity has been fundamental for the West at least since 1648 and the Treaty of Westphalia.  This fundamental notion of sovereign integrity has been through a lot, but it has been affirmed in scores of treaties for the last three hundred years or so.  If Russia has some legitimate grievance, it should be brought before some international body and worked out according to treaties such as those governing the Turkish Straits.  It's not like having nukes and being on the permanent UN security council excuses you from all other obligations of being a sovereign nation among sovereign nations.  I think this might be seen as at least one of the motives for opposing the Russian attack on Ukraine as well as being an important aspect of the world order.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 03:50:23 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on March 17, 2023, 03:09:43 PMThis may be a naive view, but even if Ukraine were themselves an authoritarian dictatorship, I still see battling Russia and making them bleed to be for the betterment of liberal democracies everywhere.  Though I can agree that "Democracy vs Authoritarianism" is an oversimplification.

Well, you've kind of hit on one of the main reasons why couching the war in terms of "democracy vs. authoritarian regime" is misguided. Even some authoritarian regimes have condemned the Russian invasion and have vocalized support for Ukraine. Arguing that it is "us vs. them" can have a negative impact on widespread support for Ukraine and could alienate some nations, pushing them closer to the Russian camp.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2023, 07:23:44 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 01:07:08 PMIs Ukraine a "liberal democracy"? Asking for a friend.  :juggler:

certainly more liberal then russias "democracy".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 07:44:48 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2023, 07:23:44 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 01:07:08 PMIs Ukraine a "liberal democracy"? Asking for a friend.  :juggler:

certainly more liberal then russias "democracy".


Agreed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2023, 08:09:03 PM
I'm glad you agree that they should get our full support.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 17, 2023, 08:47:26 PM
now this is funny!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1636838840047476737
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on March 17, 2023, 10:03:34 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 02:10:35 PMFraming the war as one of 'democracy versus authoritarianism' is a tactic used by the US and Europe to raise the stakes of the war and to generate political and moral support. However, in my friend's view, regarding the war in Ukraine as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism is misleading, misguided and somewhat naive. In truth, Ukrainian blood is more probably being spilled to preserve the post-WWII international legal order. Whether one thinks this is actually good for democracy or not, I suppose, is subjective. 

Doesn't sound like your friend is familiar with Timothy Snyder. I would recommend On Tyranny. Terrific read. Hopefully he or she isn't myopic enough to label a reputable historian such as Snyder as being misguided or naive.

6.  To weaken the prestige of tyrants.  In this century, the trend has been towards authoritarianism, with Putinism as a force and a model.  Its defeat by a democracy reverses that trend.  Fascism is about force, and is discredited by defeat.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/why-the-world-needs-ukrainian-victory (https://snyder.substack.com/p/why-the-world-needs-ukrainian-victory)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 17, 2023, 10:41:54 PM
Well it's possible Snyder has fallen for one of those conspiracies that's going round these days. Ukraine is fighting for the RIGHT to become a Liberal Democracy, if it chooses, someday. But it's hardly one now. Perhaps in order to defeat a Dictatorship you must become more like them but I believe the wisest policy would be to show your people, and the world, that what they are dying for is the opposite of what Putin offers his country, freedom. And that is why our support for the Ukrainian people, not necessarily their leaders, should be conditional upon their commitment to that Liberal Democracy-Thing that's so important to us all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 18, 2023, 01:16:20 AM
I think that the "liberal democracy vs authoritarian rule" label is a slight oversimplification, but only a slight one.  Liberal democracy and the right to self-determinism aren't identical, but they share a lot of traits in common.

To put it in much simpler terms, my sense is that, while war is an inherently ghastly business for both sides involved, the Russians have been playing much closer to "the bad guys" than "the good guys".  That's not just an opinion shared by Ukraine and NATO countries.  It's shared by most of the world.  And even the UN, which can't ever agree on pretty much anything, largely agrees that the Russians are acting like the bad guys here.

Of course, the Russians aren't doing anything to the Ukrainians that the Americans didn't do to the Japanese or the Germans.  Aside from attacking them first...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 18, 2023, 01:22:45 AM
To answer the question whether Ukraine is a democracy or not, based on studies and statistics, I guess we can have a look at the World Democracy Index (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).

It does paint a troubled picture, and for a country that was invaded in 2014 and is currently under martial laws, I suppose I for one at least can have some sympathy for that. Prior to that, Ukraine was ranked at the level of contemporary India or Poland, a Flawed Democracy, as they name that range in the ranking. Not too bad for a country that is trying to rid the shackles of an authoritarian past. Some of the former Soviet bloc countries, take Estonia as a former annexed republic within USSR, or the Czech Republic as a former WP country, are sandwiching the US while Slovenia is just behind. Just saying, so it is possible. 

I don't quite get questioning the international order, either. Here we have a sovereign, independent European state, under an unprovoked and brutal invasion. It was not the NATO expansion the ever popular excuse, that was definitively put off the table prior to invasion.

Not being naive greater powers can wield a lot - a lot - of soft power to influence things, but as that had failed in case of Ukraine, determined violence to erase a nation and its culture it was. I can hardly think better reasons to preserve free will than making war by autocrat nations hell bent achieving spheres of interest on their smaller nations than preserving international order.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 18, 2023, 08:49:31 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 17, 2023, 10:41:54 PMWell it's possible Snyder has fallen for one of those conspiracies that's going round these days. Ukraine is fighting for the RIGHT to become a Liberal Democracy, if it chooses, someday. But it's hardly one now. Perhaps in order to defeat a Dictatorship you must become more like them but I believe the wisest policy would be to show your people, and the world, that what they are dying for is the opposite of what Putin offers his country, freedom. And that is why our support for the Ukrainian people, not necessarily their leaders, should be conditional upon their commitment to that Liberal Democracy-Thing that's so important to us all.

It is possible that after successfully resisting the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian people will realize the shortfalls of their own system and demand changes.  In this scenario, their victory will give them both the confidence and desire and the power to see their suffering put to good use in reforming their own government, and demand the kleptocrats in Ukraine be shorn of their power. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 18, 2023, 03:01:04 PM
I would say Ukraine is trying to make good on its path to western style democracy.  Versus Russia where all elections are rigged in favor of one guy, and his opposition is either killed or imprisoned.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 03:39:27 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 18, 2023, 03:01:04 PMI would say Ukraine is trying to make good on its path to western style democracy.  Versus Russia where all elections are rigged in favor of one guy, and his opposition is either killed or imprisoned.

I do not think that it is sound or logical to suggest Ukraine is a stable democracy based on a comparison to an authoritarian regime. It is not effective in gaining an understanding of the actual state of democracy in the country. Ukraine cannot be described as a stable, consolidated democracy. It has made moves both backward and forward in its democratic development. The years 2021-2022 saw the imposition of sanctions on a record number of Ukrainian citizens, businesses, and media all through the authority of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), which, has reportedly gained much more influence over interior affairs since 2021. Domestic independent media and journalists have been the target of many sanctions on national security grounds, leading to three TV channels being taken off the air. Furthermore, Volodymyr Zelenskyy had the parliamentary speaker removed from his leadership position after he voiced objection to the domestic sanctions. This is a clear sign that Zelenskyy seeks to consolidate control over the parliament and have a loyal speaker in place to push his legislative agenda. There is also a growing perception that any opposition or critical voices within the president's team is harmful and not above punishment for disloyalty. None of this sounds very democratic to me when viewed independently, but yes, when compared from the perspective of Putin and Russia, the view changes dramatically, although as i noted above, this is somewhat misleading and only tells half the story.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 18, 2023, 04:48:35 PM
It's also easy to forget that Zelensky has a mammoth task on his hands trying to rid his country of the rampant corruption present when he came to power while defending his people from conquest and invasion. I don't know if another could do better or even close to as well. Still History is full of well-meaning leaders who promise to give up absolute power, not that Zelensky has absolute power, after the crisis is over. And never do.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 05:24:30 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 18, 2023, 04:48:35 PMIt's also easy to forget that Zelensky has a mammoth task on his hands trying to rid his country of the rampant corruption present when he came to power while defending his people from conquest and invasion. I don't know if another could do better or even close to as well. Still History is full of well-meaning leaders who promise to give up absolute power, not that Zelensky has absolute power, after the crisis is over. And never do.  :HideEyes:

...and he and his government have undertaken substantial efforts to combat the corruption, but yes, in order to do so, it has also had to increase and consolidate its authority and power. I guess you can't have your cake and eat it too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 18, 2023, 05:43:09 PM
So if the US was invaded by a foreign power would you not expect marshal law enforced and other drastic measures employed in a drastic situation ?

We haven't so we wouldn't know what it's like to live in country with war actively going on.

When this is over, I'd expect to be more scrutinizing over Zelenzky's domestic affairs.  Don't forget that Russian sympathizers were deep into Ukraine because of the commonality.  Just look at the beef they had over the Orthodox Church.

 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 05:54:30 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 18, 2023, 05:43:09 PMSo if the US was invaded by a foreign power would you not expect marshal law enforced and other drastic measures employed in a drastic situation ?

We haven't so we wouldn't know what it's like to live in country with war actively going on.

When this is over, I'd expect to be more scrutinizing over Zelenzky's domestic affairs.  Don't forget that Russian sympathizers were deep into Ukraine because of the commonality.  Just look at the beef they had over the Orthodox Church.

 

No, I wouldn't. We have a Constitution. The rights of American citizens don't get suspended during times of war.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 18, 2023, 06:57:29 PM
 :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 18, 2023, 08:20:43 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 05:54:30 PMNo, I wouldn't. We have a Constitution. The rights of American citizens don't get suspended during times of war.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Umm, tell that to the Japanese Americans in ww2.  Lots of rights got suspended during Civil War also.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 08:22:50 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 18, 2023, 08:20:43 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 05:54:30 PMNo, I wouldn't. We have a Constitution. The rights of American citizens don't get suspended during times of war.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Umm, tell that to the Japanese Americans in ww2.  Lots of rights got suspended during Civil War also.

I didn't say it hasn't happened. I said I don't expect it to. It is unlawful. And to just "accept" that it happens is unAmerican and will lead to it happening again.

"The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 18, 2023, 10:35:46 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 08:22:50 PM"The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

keep this in mind when thinking about this conflict and who deserves our help.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 19, 2023, 12:54:00 AM
https://kyivindependent.com/national/battle-of-bakhmut-ukrainian-soldiers-worry-russians-begin-to-taste-victory
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 19, 2023, 07:44:30 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 08:22:50 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 18, 2023, 08:20:43 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 05:54:30 PMNo, I wouldn't. We have a Constitution. The rights of American citizens don't get suspended during times of war.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Umm, tell that to the Japanese Americans in ww2.  Lots of rights got suspended during Civil War also.

I didn't say it hasn't happened. I said I don't expect it to. It is unlawful. And to just "accept" that it happens is unAmerican and will lead to it happening again.

"The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

  Have you looked at the legal side of how the ex-confederate states were "reconstructed"?  I think the US would get a democracy rating less than that of Ukraine for the Reconstruction period after 1867.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2023, 10:51:31 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 19, 2023, 07:44:30 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 08:22:50 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 18, 2023, 08:20:43 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2023, 05:54:30 PMNo, I wouldn't. We have a Constitution. The rights of American citizens don't get suspended during times of war.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Umm, tell that to the Japanese Americans in ww2.  Lots of rights got suspended during Civil War also.

I didn't say it hasn't happened. I said I don't expect it to. It is unlawful. And to just "accept" that it happens is unAmerican and will lead to it happening again.

"The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

  Have you looked at the legal side of how the ex-confederate states were "reconstructed"?  I think the US would get a democracy rating less than that of Ukraine for the Reconstruction period after 1867.

I'm not going to get into this here because I think we've already strayed too far off topic and a discussion on the Reconstruction Amendments to the Constitution would certainly push us further astray. It is a fascinating topic though.

I apologize for the role I've played in this diversion. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 19, 2023, 11:39:16 AM
Diversions can help to break the monotony sometimes too.

I think it's realistic to suggest that the Ukrainians are NOT a safe, stable democracy.  Nor would they be if there had not been an invasion of the rest of their country last year.  Assuming they retain their sovereignty after the war with Russia, I think we owe them a lot of help reconstructing. 

But we also need to exercise A LOT of vigilance when we do that.  As we (hopefully) learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, democracy-building is extremely tough, particularly in societies with little history of it.

That said, I think we can agree that Russia needs to be opposed and "rooted against", if not slavishly or in a fanboy fashion.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2023, 12:19:52 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 19, 2023, 11:39:16 AMDiversions can help to break the monotony sometimes too.

I think it's realistic to suggest that the Ukrainians are NOT a safe, stable democracy.  Nor would they be if there had not been an invasion of the rest of their country last year.  Assuming they retain their sovereignty after the war with Russia, I think we owe them a lot of help reconstructing. 

But we also need to exercise A LOT of vigilance when we do that.  As we (hopefully) learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, democracy-building is extremely tough, particularly in societies with little history of it.

That said, I think we can agree that Russia needs to be opposed and "rooted against", if not slavishly or in a fanboy fashion.

The dollar amounts for contracts that have already been promised for rebuilding are staggering. Someone will profit, but it is unlikely to be the people of Ukraine. Furthermore, until our own leaders, both civil and military are held accountable for their failures in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, no lessons will be learned, no changes will be implemented and the same tragic mistakes will continue to be made.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 19, 2023, 01:01:51 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2023, 12:19:52 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 19, 2023, 11:39:16 AMDiversions can help to break the monotony sometimes too.

I think it's realistic to suggest that the Ukrainians are NOT a safe, stable democracy.  Nor would they be if there had not been an invasion of the rest of their country last year.  Assuming they retain their sovereignty after the war with Russia, I think we owe them a lot of help reconstructing. 

But we also need to exercise A LOT of vigilance when we do that.  As we (hopefully) learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, democracy-building is extremely tough, particularly in societies with little history of it.

That said, I think we can agree that Russia needs to be opposed and "rooted against", if not slavishly or in a fanboy fashion.

The dollar amounts for contracts that have already been promised for rebuilding are staggering. Someone will profit, but it is unlikely to be the people of Ukraine. Furthermore, until our own leaders, both civil and military are held accountable for their failures in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, no lessons will be learned, no changes will be implemented and the same tragic mistakes will continue to be made.

Unless the Russians are stopped and driven out, we won't even get to the tragic mistake phase of tragic mistakes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2023, 02:14:27 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 19, 2023, 01:01:51 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2023, 12:19:52 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 19, 2023, 11:39:16 AMDiversions can help to break the monotony sometimes too.

I think it's realistic to suggest that the Ukrainians are NOT a safe, stable democracy.  Nor would they be if there had not been an invasion of the rest of their country last year.  Assuming they retain their sovereignty after the war with Russia, I think we owe them a lot of help reconstructing. 

But we also need to exercise A LOT of vigilance when we do that.  As we (hopefully) learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, democracy-building is extremely tough, particularly in societies with little history of it.

That said, I think we can agree that Russia needs to be opposed and "rooted against", if not slavishly or in a fanboy fashion.

The dollar amounts for contracts that have already been promised for rebuilding are staggering. Someone will profit, but it is unlikely to be the people of Ukraine. Furthermore, until our own leaders, both civil and military are held accountable for their failures in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, no lessons will be learned, no changes will be implemented and the same tragic mistakes will continue to be made.

Unless the Russians are stopped and driven out, we won't even get to the tragic mistake phase of tragic mistakes.

acknowledging the complexity and danger of the situation that lies beyond the immediate military confrontation is not to suggest that the Russians shouldn't be opposed and defeated. I think we've all agreed on this point many times over.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: fran on March 19, 2023, 02:18:21 PM
I've posted it before but the podcast Battleground: Ukraine (https://shows.acast.com/battleground) hosted by Patrick Bishop and Saul David. It takes an in-depth look at the war.

They changed the format to 2 podcasts a week. The Wednesday podcast is an interview and Friday with news and listener questions.

Highly recommended!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 19, 2023, 02:52:41 PM
Thanks for the link, fran!

Jarhead, even if we just spare the people of Ukraine from "cultural cleansing" by the Russian Empire, I'll consider it money well spent.  If it makes you feel any better, we can certainly be even more half-hearted, halting, and stingy with our reconstruction aid than we have been so far with our military aid.

I don't begin to flatter myself with the belief that all the weapons that we are sending to Ukraine are finding their way to the battlefront.  So long as we stop the Russians, and set a precedent whereby the violent annexation of a sovereign country by a regional superpower is still "no longer cool", I'll consider it a victory.

That was a line we ourselves blurred when we went into Iraq based on faulty intelligence, but that is a conversation for another day.  Getting us back to the original topic, here is an interesting article on the challenges that the war has presented for families of mixed Russian/Ukrainian couples.  It certainly reminds one what a tragedy this whole mess has been.

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/3/19/how-ukrainian-russian-couples-are-faring-after-a-year-of-war
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 19, 2023, 03:10:52 PM
Quote from: fran on March 19, 2023, 02:18:21 PMI've posted it before but the podcast Battleground: Ukraine (https://shows.acast.com/battleground) hosted by Patrick Bishop and Saul David. It takes an in-depth look at the war.

They changed the format to 2 podcasts a week. The Wednesday podcast is an interview and Friday with news and listener questions.

Highly recommended!

For those who are interested, this is a good podcast, which covers the war from a variety of Points of View.  Last week had an interesting take on the cyber conflict, which is a not-often-covered aspect of the war.  See here: https://shows.acast.com/battleground/episodes/33-david-alexander-on
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 19, 2023, 08:12:56 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2023, 12:19:52 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 19, 2023, 11:39:16 AMDiversions can help to break the monotony sometimes too.

I think it's realistic to suggest that the Ukrainians are NOT a safe, stable democracy.  Nor would they be if there had not been an invasion of the rest of their country last year.  Assuming they retain their sovereignty after the war with Russia, I think we owe them a lot of help reconstructing. 

But we also need to exercise A LOT of vigilance when we do that.  As we (hopefully) learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, democracy-building is extremely tough, particularly in societies with little history of it.

That said, I think we can agree that Russia needs to be opposed and "rooted against", if not slavishly or in a fanboy fashion.

The dollar amounts for contracts that have already been promised for rebuilding are staggering. Someone will profit, but it is unlikely to be the people of Ukraine. Furthermore, until our own leaders, both civil and military are held accountable for their failures in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, no lessons will be learned, no changes will be implemented and the same tragic mistakes will continue to be made.

Fair point, but Ukraine is actually doing what we wanted done in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq......fight like hell.

Sad to hold them accountable for previous failures.  But those lessons could guide us going forward.  In a sense what not to do versus what should be done.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 19, 2023, 09:44:30 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2023, 12:19:52 PMThe dollar amounts for contracts that have already been promised for rebuilding are staggering. Someone will profit, but it is unlikely to be the people of Ukraine. Furthermore, until our own leaders, both civil and military are held accountable for their failures in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, no lessons will be learned, no changes will be implemented and the same tragic mistakes will continue to be made.

it seems that both Germany and Japan ended up rather well after their post war rebuilding and reconstruction.  people and businesses here in the US and overseas also did rather well.  its one of the few upsides of this kind of realpolotik.  I think youre also ignoring the fact that, unlike  Iraq and Afghanistan, the Ukraine actually wants a western style government and society.  that makes things a lot easier. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2023, 09:51:18 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 19, 2023, 09:44:30 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2023, 12:19:52 PMThe dollar amounts for contracts that have already been promised for rebuilding are staggering. Someone will profit, but it is unlikely to be the people of Ukraine. Furthermore, until our own leaders, both civil and military are held accountable for their failures in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, no lessons will be learned, no changes will be implemented and the same tragic mistakes will continue to be made.
it seems that both Germany and Japan ended up rather well after their post war rebuilding and reconstruction.  people and businesses here in the US and overseas also did rather well.  its one of the few upsides of this kind of realpolotik.  I think youre also ignoring the fact that, unlike  Iraq and Afghanistan, the Ukraine actually wants a western style government and society.  that makes things a lot easier. 

Yes. All is wonderful and everyone will be happy and nothing else matters but killing Russians and there is no use asking questions or using our brains. Just keep accepting what you're told.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 19, 2023, 10:07:48 PM
ya, and youre going to have to do better then brandt whos in his own class of nut job.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2023, 10:12:44 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 19, 2023, 10:07:48 PMya, and youre going to have to do better then brandt whos in his own class of nut job.

Such a convenient way to disregard any opinion that differs from your own intransigent views.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 19, 2023, 10:40:21 PM
 :ROFL:   ok Mr Pot.  have you met Mr. Kettle yet.  I am he.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 19, 2023, 10:46:32 PM
Yeah, they're always Nut Jobs when they're saying things you disagree with but, Prophets when saying things you agree with. Isn't that true for us all? So do the people who think that withholding Civil Rights in time of war is necessary, approve of the internment of Japanese-Americans during WWII? Because that's precisely why we want avoid those kinds of things isn't it? You know, like men who do things saying it's for the good of whoever or to prevent whatever. Because there's a war on you know and don't bother me with details, just do as I say until I say stop doing it and do something different. Because I say you have to.

Precisely why we have a written set of rules that protect us from men, and women, like that and all their Bogey Men who they would use to take our freedoms from us, nut jobs or not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 20, 2023, 04:13:30 AM
https://www.gu.se/en/news/dictatorships-advancing-globally

70 per cent of the world's population now live in dictatorships, according to this year's report on democracy from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute at the University of Gothenburg.

"On the same day that we concluded this year's democracy report, President Putin of Russia ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This war is being waged by the same man who, 20 years ago, triggered the third wave of autocratization in the world," says Staffan I. Lindberg, Director of the V-Dem Institute.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 20, 2023, 04:24:33 AM
Shoot, we don't need to look further back than the Red Scare to know that we can get carried away when we face what we think is an existential threat.  One of the hardest things about preserving a democracy is that you have to constantly thread the needle between internal oppression and external threats.

I'm not sure exactly what we're arguing about at this stage--or really, what Jarhead and Starfury are arguing about.  I'm not sure either one seems interested in figuring it out, but I'm also not sure either one cares. 

My sense is that any of us ought to be able to respond to any thread (even this one) with thoughtful, critical questions and articles.  If there's confusion here, I suspect it relates to the "so what?" aspect of different lines of thinking.  Otherwise, it's too easy to infer sinister motives to different lines of questioning. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 20, 2023, 07:43:36 AM
Meanwhile, former president Medvedev threatened to zorch the ICC with a hypersonic missile for daring to call for the arrest of Putin on war crimes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-threatens-to-blow-up-icc-with-hypersonic-missile/ar-AA18QozP?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=f354a6ec53cd487bbdb0824f3b160d3e&ei=39

The corruption in Ukraine is a complicated problem -- including Russia having taken advantage of the corruption to undermine Ukraine, which is at least one corruption Zelensky has definitely been trying to get rid of (for obvious reasons).

The corruption in Russia is a very different kind of complicated problem. On one hand, the world actually does need Russia functioning stably in order for the rest of us to function at the level of modern nations (if only for the sake of Russian palladium for example). On the other hand, this and Ukrainian genocide is their version of functioning stably.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 20, 2023, 08:13:34 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 20, 2023, 04:24:33 AMShoot, we don't need to look further back than the Red Scare to know that we can get carried away when we face what we think is an existential threat.  One of the hardest things about preserving a democracy is that you have to constantly thread the needle between internal oppression and external threats.

I'm not sure exactly what we're arguing about at this stage--or really, what Jarhead and Starfury are arguing about.  I'm not sure either one seems interested in figuring it out, but I'm also not sure either one cares. 

My sense is that any of us ought to be able to respond to any thread (even this one) with thoughtful, critical questions and articles.  If there's confusion here, I suspect it relates to the "so what?" aspect of different lines of thinking.  Otherwise, it's too easy to infer sinister motives to different lines of questioning. 

Well, a lot of this stuff is totally classic in every possible way.  Political systems are all about power and that can definitely be a sinister thing even when used with the best of motives.  Power is inherently frightening and that's one of the main ways that power works.  People have seen this for thousands of years ( see for example
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cycle_theory)
You could say that somehow the cases we see (and that the framers of the US Constitution were well aware of)
are extreme -- that nukes or cryptocurrency or social media or drones or AI or something has changed the nature of power -- but probably not by all that much.  Or so it seems to me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 20, 2023, 08:58:05 AM
Sometimes people use real threats for political power and oppression, the Red Scare being such an example: there really was a real threat, which has become (in the long run) a serious problem for the United States. And people did take advantage of that threat for their own purposes. Hitler and Stalin using each other as an excuse to be supervillainous to their own populations (and to other people nearby they could reach, including Poland) are a classic example.

Speaking of Poland: the Polish ambassador to France says Poland will kick into the war if Putin defeats Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/polish-ambassador-to-france-poland-will-be-forced-to-enter-war-if-ukraine-fails-to-defend-itself/ar-AA18Phxv?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=e1cf5530453740dc94d9a7d1f61b4c0d&ei=46

...THEN THE WINGED HUSSARS ARRIVE!  :RockOn:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 20, 2023, 10:39:23 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 20, 2023, 08:58:05 AM...THEN THE WINGED HUSSARS ARRIVE!  :RockOn:

 :ThumbsUp:

(https://i.redd.it/0ymt0ov3jz281.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 20, 2023, 11:18:44 AM
A frightening statement by the Polish Ambassador, though I understand his fears and reasoning. Time to get back to building that underground bunker I guess.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 20, 2023, 12:18:55 PM
^It should have been ready a year ago!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 20, 2023, 01:25:15 PM
So, I built a beautiful pool in my back yard a couple years ago, but when the Ukraine war kicked off, I was like......man, I should have built a bunker instead. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 20, 2023, 01:38:59 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 20, 2023, 01:25:15 PMSo, I built a beautiful pool in my back yard a couple years ago, but when the Ukraine war kicked off, I was like......man, I should have built a bunker instead. 

Most of you live in the US and are quit safe.
I live 10 miles from Nato & EU headquarters.  I assume a bunker in my backyard will be quit useless.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 20, 2023, 01:54:18 PM
I'd agree wit
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 20, 2023, 01:38:59 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 20, 2023, 01:25:15 PMSo, I built a beautiful pool in my back yard a couple years ago, but when the Ukraine war kicked off, I was like......man, I should have built a bunker instead. 

Most of you live in the US and are quit safe.
I live 10 miles from Nato & EU headquarters.  I assume a bunker in my backyard will be quit useless.

I'd agree with you, not sure you could build a bunker deep enough at your location to even help.

Where I live there's military bases everywhere, sandwiched by 3 of them, I might be in The same boat.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 20, 2023, 02:24:09 PM
If this thing escalates to involve NATO and a wider global war, we're all in the same boat. Quite frankly, I would not even want a bunker because what will be left of the world would not be worth living in.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 20, 2023, 02:30:15 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 20, 2023, 02:24:09 PMIf this thing escalates to involve NATO and a wider global war, we're all in the same boat. Quite frankly, I would not even want a bunker because what will be left of the world would not be worth living in.
Is it too early for a Friday thread?
 :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 20, 2023, 02:31:03 PM
Nuke bunker joking aside, if Poland makes its own incursion into to Ukraine in an effort to help Ukraine on behalf of it's own security, what would nato say ?

I'm guessing article 5 is defensive only and Poland would be on it's own.

Also, would Poland draw belorus into the war, because I know if belorus entered the war now it would bring Poland in.  The threat of Poland escalation might be why belorus has backed off from active involvement.  Poland has been building the largest land army in Europe for a reason.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 20, 2023, 02:35:33 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 20, 2023, 02:24:09 PMIf this thing escalates to involve NATO and a wider global war, we're all in the same boat. Quite frankly, I would not even want a bunker because what will be left of the world would not be worth living in.

No doubt, unless you could somehow make that last flight to Tahiti to finish out your days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 20, 2023, 02:40:32 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 20, 2023, 02:30:15 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 20, 2023, 02:24:09 PMIf this thing escalates to involve NATO and a wider global war, we're all in the same boat. Quite frankly, I would not even want a bunker because what will be left of the world would not be worth living in.
Is it too early for a Friday thread?

Don't forget the most obvious choice :

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 20, 2023, 02:51:41 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 20, 2023, 02:31:03 PMNuke bunker joking aside, if Poland makes its own incursion into to Ukraine in an effort to help Ukraine on behalf of it's own security, what would nato say ?

I'm guessing article 5 is defensive only and Poland would be on it's own.


Correct:

QuoteArticle 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

Article 6

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

    on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;

    on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 20, 2023, 03:10:19 PM
^Does the Russian attack on the American drone in the Black Sea not qualify under Article 6?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Silent Disapproval Robot on March 20, 2023, 03:16:57 PM
Poland would be the aggressor in this case based on their rhetoric.  I'd hope my country would say "thanks but we'll sit this one out" but our normally dovish PM is quite the hawk in this specific instance.  It's all very strange.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 20, 2023, 03:22:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 20, 2023, 03:10:19 PM^Does the Russian attack on the American drone in the Black Sea not qualify under Article 6?

Probably not as I don't think it constitutes an "armed" attack.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 20, 2023, 03:36:53 PM
^Yeah I thought that too, because of the fuel 'spill.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 20, 2023, 03:55:26 PM
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on March 20, 2023, 03:16:57 PMPoland would be the aggressor in this case based on their rhetoric.  I'd hope my country would say "thanks but we'll sit this one out" but our normally dovish PM is quite the hawk in this specific instance.  It's all very strange.

  It might be a way to pressure other western powers to send more gear to Ukraine since the prospect of Poland going rogue isn't necessarily all that appealing to say France or Germany.  "Send more stuff to Ukraine or we will have to go after the Russians down there." 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 20, 2023, 05:57:11 PM
Cultural/historical payback question for you all:  If the Poles wanted to mount a False Flag operation in Belorus, would they do it using soldiers dressed in German uniforms or Russian uniforms? 

Or would they just deposit dead bodies dressed in the uniforms of both countries?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 20, 2023, 10:44:06 PM
Or would they use their own uniforms to really throw everybody off? My personal pick would be Putin's Topless Cavalry unit he designed himself with the 75mm nipples.

I could see Poland joined by other east European countries intervening in a certain conquest of Ukraine by the Russkies. Nobody east of Berlin wants a return of the Warsaw Pact.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 20, 2023, 11:25:22 PM
generally speaking, that would be very bad.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 21, 2023, 10:02:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 20, 2023, 11:25:22 PMgenerally speaking, that would be very bad.

I agree. Although Poland is eager to bonk some heads, they are not unaware of the complications.

I am wondering out loud if any of you hard core have wargamed a Polish advance into Belarus?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 21, 2023, 10:56:27 AM
Quote from: Windigo on March 21, 2023, 10:02:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 20, 2023, 11:25:22 PMgenerally speaking, that would be very bad.

I agree. Although Poland is eager to bonk some heads, they are not unaware of the complications.

I am wondering out loud if any of you hard core have wargamed a Polish advance into Belarus?

Since Ukraine seems to be tearing the Russians to pieces, I have my doubts that any current commercially
available war games can be seen as reliable indicators of how various events might play out on the battlefield.
I'm sure there's a COIN version of Europe under Polish rule with cards where Poland deals well with Belarus
coming soon on VASSAL, though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 21, 2023, 11:46:54 AM
Given the fog of war, I think it's hard to tell exactly how the Ukrainian War is going right now for either side.  All we know for sure is that the Russians are taking heavy casualties, but that's almost a given in any military conflict involving the Russian Army if they're fighting an opponent vaguely on par with them.

Consider, their greatest patriotic victory in the last 2 centuries came in WW2, when they sustained twice the military fatalities of the Germans, in addition to dreadful civilian casualties.  I'm not aware that Russia has lost a war due to manpower problems in a few centuries now...

As you suggest, trying to wargame an Army that hasn't fought a war in recent decades is problematic at best.  All we can conclude about the Russians for sure is that they can't occupy a country one-third their size so long as it has reasonable bankrolling from wealthy neighboring states.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 21, 2023, 12:18:49 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 21, 2023, 11:46:54 AMGiven the fog of war, I think it's hard to tell exactly how the Ukrainian War is going right now for either side.  All we know for sure is that the Russians are taking heavy casualties, but that's almost a given in any military conflict involving the Russian Army if they're fighting an opponent vaguely on par with them.

Consider, their greatest patriotic victory in the last 2 centuries came in WW2, when they sustained twice the military fatalities of the Germans, in addition to dreadful civilian casualties.  I'm not aware that Russia has lost a war due to manpower problems in a few centuries now...

As you suggest, trying to wargame an Army that hasn't fought a war in recent decades is problematic at best.  All we can conclude about the Russians for sure is that they can't occupy a country one-third their size so long as it has reasonable bankrolling from wealthy neighboring states.

I have to admit I'm still shocked that the Russians could not just overrun Ukraine in a couple of weeks.
Until I see a good boardgame that can convincingly represent that failure by the Russians, I have my doubts about
how to imagine what would happen if Poland went after Belarus and Russia.  I'm guessing it would not be pretty, but just for whom and how much -- I have no idea at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 21, 2023, 12:58:09 PM
The thing with Belorus is there's growing dissention toward the putin puppet.  The Belos aren't far off from staging protests like the Georgians the past week.  Not to mention all the volunteer battalions full of Belos fighting with Ukraine.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 21, 2023, 02:52:15 PM
Russian Marines assault on the outskirts of Vuhledar. That artillery around the 6:30 mark is landing dangerously close.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 21, 2023, 03:52:11 PM
M1 Abrams news.  Ukraine will get them sooner, but older versions.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-speeds-up-abrams-tank-delivery-to-ukraine-war-zone/ar-AA18TFKc?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1ee4053d506a40bca8362137cb4691e1&ei=26 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-speeds-up-abrams-tank-delivery-to-ukraine-war-zone/ar-AA18TFKc?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1ee4053d506a40bca8362137cb4691e1&ei=26)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 21, 2023, 05:03:00 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 21, 2023, 12:18:49 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 21, 2023, 11:46:54 AMGiven the fog of war, I think it's hard to tell exactly how the Ukrainian War is going right now for either side.  All we know for sure is that the Russians are taking heavy casualties, but that's almost a given in any military conflict involving the Russian Army if they're fighting an opponent vaguely on par with them.

Consider, their greatest patriotic victory in the last 2 centuries came in WW2, when they sustained twice the military fatalities of the Germans, in addition to dreadful civilian casualties.  I'm not aware that Russia has lost a war due to manpower problems in a few centuries now...

As you suggest, trying to wargame an Army that hasn't fought a war in recent decades is problematic at best.  All we can conclude about the Russians for sure is that they can't occupy a country one-third their size so long as it has reasonable bankrolling from wealthy neighboring states.

I have to admit I'm still shocked that the Russians could not just overrun Ukraine in a couple of weeks.
Until I see a good boardgame that can convincingly represent that failure by the Russians, I have my doubts about
how to imagine what would happen if Poland went after Belarus and Russia.  I'm guessing it would not be pretty, but just for whom and how much -- I have no idea at all.

Hmmmm, take their combat values and divide by 3?
Give the UAF +2 morale?
Remove 1/2 of Rus command units?
Arty is good, airforce is good.



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 21, 2023, 05:04:49 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 21, 2023, 03:52:11 PMM1 Abrams news.  Ukraine will get them sooner, but older versions.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-speeds-up-abrams-tank-delivery-to-ukraine-war-zone/ar-AA18TFKc?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1ee4053d506a40bca8362137cb4691e1&ei=26 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-speeds-up-abrams-tank-delivery-to-ukraine-war-zone/ar-AA18TFKc?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1ee4053d506a40bca8362137cb4691e1&ei=26)

Better to have some older variants than none of the newer ones.
To be honest I am surprised the M1s aren't across the pond already.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 21, 2023, 05:16:13 PM
Quote from: Windigo on March 21, 2023, 05:03:00 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 21, 2023, 12:18:49 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 21, 2023, 11:46:54 AMGiven the fog of war, I think it's hard to tell exactly how the Ukrainian War is going right now for either side.  All we know for sure is that the Russians are taking heavy casualties, but that's almost a given in any military conflict involving the Russian Army if they're fighting an opponent vaguely on par with them.

Consider, their greatest patriotic victory in the last 2 centuries came in WW2, when they sustained twice the military fatalities of the Germans, in addition to dreadful civilian casualties.  I'm not aware that Russia has lost a war due to manpower problems in a few centuries now...

As you suggest, trying to wargame an Army that hasn't fought a war in recent decades is problematic at best.  All we can conclude about the Russians for sure is that they can't occupy a country one-third their size so long as it has reasonable bankrolling from wealthy neighboring states.

I have to admit I'm still shocked that the Russians could not just overrun Ukraine in a couple of weeks.
Until I see a good boardgame that can convincingly represent that failure by the Russians, I have my doubts about
how to imagine what would happen if Poland went after Belarus and Russia.  I'm guessing it would not be pretty, but just for whom and how much -- I have no idea at all.

Hmmmm, take their combat values and divide by 3?
Give the UAF +2 morale?
Remove 1/2 of Rus command units?
Arty is good, airforce is good.


  I guess, but what options did the Russians have that they didn't manage to bring into play?
How did the fact that the Ukrainians seem to have been back from the borders for various reasons have
effects if any?  And what about Russian logistics (which seem to have fallen apart right away) and
command confusion and electronic warfare problems etc. etc.?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 21, 2023, 05:24:30 PM
Good points. Not that I have answers to them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 21, 2023, 05:46:06 PM
Arty has gotten better, Air Force still hasn't done much with the relative aerial superiority that they've had since the start of the war.

My sense is that most of the factors assigned to units in wargames (ATK, DEF, etc.) are done with the benefits of hindsight.  There is a level of granularity to real-life combat that simply can't be modeled at an appropriately detailed level for anything larger than small unit actions.

Historically, wargames avoided this problem by abstracting most of those things into a few summary values.  Those values are intended to sidestep the issue of whether a particular helicopter's mechanic just got a Dear John letter and forgot to check all the fuel hoses before his chopper lifted off.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 21, 2023, 06:57:42 PM
And, the UK is planning to send depleted uranium rounds for the Challengers.

UK Minister of Defense said on a UK Government website:
"alongside our granting of a squadron of Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, we will be providing ammunition including armour piercing rounds which contain depleted uranium."

She said the rounds "are highly effective in defeating modern tanks and armoured vehicles."

We know its a real quote because of the egregious misspelling of "armor."

Putin - not happy

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-russia-will-respond-accordingly-if-ukraine-gets-depleted-uranium-shells/ar-AA18UmiF?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f1990c3a427b4966b7aaec2cf2c984b3&ei=25 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-russia-will-respond-accordingly-if-ukraine-gets-depleted-uranium-shells/ar-AA18UmiF?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f1990c3a427b4966b7aaec2cf2c984b3&ei=25)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 21, 2023, 07:29:33 PM
Can Poland successfully fight an offensive war to help get Russia out of Ukraine with limited (maybe Baltic) NATO support? I'm getting dizzy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 21, 2023, 07:37:06 PM
Alleged Russian war crimes caught by Ukrainian drones last year:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/03/21/izium-ukraine-war-crimes-investigation-russia-watson-ac360-vpx.cnn
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 21, 2023, 07:38:57 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 21, 2023, 02:52:15 PMRussian Marines assault on the outskirts of Vuhledar. That artillery around the 6:30 mark is landing dangerously close.




to bad it wasnt a direct hit.  also not seeing much assaulting going on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 21, 2023, 08:39:53 PM
At this point, it may be an open question whether White Russia stays teamed with Russia, or sides with Poland. Even the current Belarus government might decide they would prefer to be tyannical monsters in charge of their own country rather than pawns of Putin.

Then Lithuania teams up with Poland, and Ukraine gladly grants its western portions under Polish reconstruction management on lease or something, and the Polish Imperial Confederation Or The Equivalent Thereof rises again! --- seems like a good HOI scenario to attempt!

Hopefully this time without a Parliament which would be mocked by Mark Twain for its totally incompetent self-contradictory impotence.

(....but seriously, Byelo might decide it's better to become the new evil Switzerland as a neutral borderland, than to be constantly wondering when Putin or his successor will roll up and ask for all the keys to the place.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 21, 2023, 08:53:15 PM
^That might be later tonight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 22, 2023, 05:53:34 AM
So maybe those Leopard 1s being sent to Ukraine will slot right into the MBT ecosystem there.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1638470795100823552

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1638474760215470080
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2023, 07:33:06 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 21, 2023, 07:29:33 PMCan Poland successfully fight an offensive war to help get Russia out of Ukraine with limited (maybe Baltic) NATO support? I'm getting dizzy.

  I would think the Polish response logic goes:
1) we would like to stop the Russians and Belarusians before they mass on the Polish border
2) better to have a complex engagement on enemy ground than a simple getting clobbered in Poland
3) Ukraine and Belarus could be areas where the locals are somewhat anti-Russian
4) THEREFORE
5) whatever else happens, if Russians start massing in Belarus and/or Ukrainian forces get significantly overwhelmed
6) we advance to a stop line as far east as possible and get ready to start fighting there
7) is this an offensive?  It might be sort of a pre-emptive stop line or something
8) anyway, I doubt the Poles are going to sit tight while large forces approach their borders and/or
start blowing things up in Poland

Hmmm: PS:  this also suggests another Russian blunder, a deeper one in terms of how people will think of
deterence.  Since basically, Ukraine did everything they could to avoid provoking the Russians AND THE RUSSIANS STILL ATTACKED them, this means countries like Poland that might have thought the safest course was to lay low and hope the Russians go away now have no choice but to conclude there's no point in not taking all defensive or offensive measures because the Russians are likely to attack no matter what you do -- so go ahead and be pre-emptive and put up a stop line; at least when the Russians attack they will have farther to go before they start exporting your children.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 22, 2023, 08:15:22 AM
^NATO membership still keeps the Russians at bay. But do the Poles, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, etc. feel threatened enough to strike first despite their NATO membership?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 08:20:58 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on March 22, 2023, 05:53:34 AMSo maybe those Leopard 1s being sent to Ukraine will slot right into the MBT ecosystem there.


Quote from: Crossroads on March 22, 2023, 05:53:34 AMSo maybe those Leopard 1s being sent to Ukraine will slot right into the MBT ecosystem there.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1638470795100823552


So, how many T-55s will it take to take on a Leopard II? a Challenger? or an M1?

Maybe that is no longer a hypothetical question.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 22, 2023, 08:49:48 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 08:20:58 AMSo, how many T-55s will it take to take on a Leopard II? a Challenger? or an M1?

Maybe that is no longer a hypothetical question.

Didn't M1's take on T-72's in Iraq ?  Not really a balanced engagement. 


But if you believe Russian propaganda M1's are easily defeated by T-55's.

https://tass.com/defense/1567245   (TASS is a Russian 'news' agency)

Abrams tanks repeatedly demonstrated their vulnerability during the hostilities in Iraq, the expert pointed out. "As the Iraq combat experience shows, they went up in flames. The tank turret was pierced by a 100mm armor-piercing blunt nose projectile fired by a T-55 tank. There were instances when Abrams vehicles were struck by automatic guns of both Bradley and our BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles," he said.

Instances are also known when the American tank was destroyed by the first Soviet modifications of T-72 tanks firing old shells "that were withdrawn from operational use even before the Abrams concept was devised," Suvorov said.

The expert also pointed to the instances when Abrams tanks were wiped out by RPG-7 anti-tank grenade launchers.

The American tank almost has no chances, if it engages in a duel with Russian tanks, the expert said.   :ROFL:

"If an Abrams emerges at a long distance, a T-72 or a T-90 crew will fire an anti-tank missile and we can say that the Abrams will even have no chance to fire a shot as its range of fire won't allow it to do that," he explained.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2023, 09:04:49 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 22, 2023, 08:15:22 AM^NATO membership still keeps the Russians at bay. But do the Poles, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, etc. feel threatened enough to strike first despite their NATO membership?

 Well, I kinda suspect, that the calculus of deterrence has changed.  Before Russia more or less unprovoked attacked Ukraine, I think most nations would think NATO would deter the Russians.  After Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine, places like Poland may be thinking -- why wait until its too late?  Better get your own deterrence running strong and maybe even pre-empt any Russian moves in your direction because who knows what the Russians will do?  better safe than sorry.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 22, 2023, 09:14:44 AM
^Such a delicate balance. When does deterrence turn into aggression?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 22, 2023, 10:02:04 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 22, 2023, 09:04:49 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 22, 2023, 08:15:22 AM^NATO membership still keeps the Russians at bay. But do the Poles, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, etc. feel threatened enough to strike first despite their NATO membership?

 Well, I kinda suspect, that the calculus of deterrence has changed.  Before Russia more or less unprovoked attacked Ukraine, I think most nations would think NATO would deter the Russians.  After Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine, places like Poland may be thinking -- why wait until its too late?  Better get your own deterrence running strong and maybe even pre-empt any Russian moves in your direction because who knows what the Russians will do?  better safe than sorry.
I believe these are similar thoughts (NATO is encroaching on our borders) that went through Russia's paranoid mind before their attack on Ukraine.  That's speaking of Russians who support that attack more than Putins delusions of grandeur.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 22, 2023, 10:06:50 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 22, 2023, 08:15:22 AM^NATO membership still keeps the Russians at bay. But do the Poles, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, etc. feel threatened enough to strike first despite their NATO membership?

I wonder outloud if there is a cultural trigger for the eastern NATO members to escalate, that we in the west currently don't recognize, or feel is trivial that could get them going?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2023, 10:07:32 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 22, 2023, 09:14:44 AM^Such a delicate balance. When does deterrence turn into aggression?

Unfortunately for everybody (but especially the Russians, who probably could deter Poland with no trouble at all before Feb 24, 2022) nobody can quite be certain anymore.  Restoring something like a normal Cold War situation may be why China is dabbling in Russia's problems and also why the West thinks dumping fighting gear and cash into Ukraine is the least-bad thing to do in terms of deterrence.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 22, 2023, 10:10:12 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 22, 2023, 10:07:32 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 22, 2023, 09:14:44 AM^Such a delicate balance. When does deterrence turn into aggression?

Unfortunately for everybody (but especially the Russians, who probably could deter Poland with no trouble at all before Feb 24, 2022) nobody can quite be certain anymore.  Restoring something like a normal Cold War situation may be why China is dabbling in Russia's problems and also why the West thinks dumping fighting gear and cash into Ukraine is the least-bad thing to do in terms of deterrence.

Belarus is an interesting card on the table. I bet they are getting communications from all sides.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 22, 2023, 10:12:32 AM
I agree with Bob, above. As Russia moves further west, NATO feels more threatened, and should. The mirror image of what the Russians have been upset about with NATO moving further east for decades, except NATO didn't bomb and destroy Ukraine while trying to make it come closer to NATO.

Remember around 1995 when the West toyed with the idea of a friendly Russia actually joining NATO one day?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 22, 2023, 10:23:29 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 08:20:58 AMSo, how many T-55s will it take to take on a Leopard II?


it will take 38 T55  (because the Leo2A6 has 37 rounds onboard)   :wink:

actually a few less but not much less.
 the Leopards, usualy operating in a group of 4, have to aim and reload and so a large group of tanks showing up simultan may score a softkill on the moving Leopards while old tanks  have to stop to fire, damaging optics, tracks, turret mechanic ... and the Leopard will fall back to get repairs
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 22, 2023, 01:00:03 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 22, 2023, 10:12:32 AMI agree with Bob, above. As Russia moves further west, NATO feels more threatened, and should. The mirror image of what the Russians have been upset about with NATO moving further east for decades, except NATO didn't bomb and destroy Ukraine while trying to make it come closer to NATO.

Remember around 1995 when the West toyed with the idea of a friendly Russia actually joining NATO one day?

I think Russians blew the plausibility of the idea that they just want some kind of demilitarized buffer zone
(like Austria was after 1955 in theory) when they annexed the Crimea.  Then I think the whole quasi-genocidal
thing (erasing any Ukrainian identity -- "genocide" means erasing a type, a genus, of persons either by killing them all or taking all their children and re-educating them etc. etc.).  Clearly, something more is going on than the need for a buffer that is farther west.  Of course this brings up the problem of what the Russians "actually" want (which is sort of a major problem since they don't seem to know -- would they really be happier if people would only dislike Harry Potter for the right reasons as the Patriarch seemed to want to imply this time last year?  I doubt it: 
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/vladimir-putin-jk-rowling-russia-cancel-culture
)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 22, 2023, 02:32:00 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 22, 2023, 08:49:48 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 08:20:58 AMSo, how many T-55s will it take to take on a Leopard II? a Challenger? or an M1?

Maybe that is no longer a hypothetical question.

Didn't M1's take on T-72's in Iraq ?  Not really a balanced engagement. 


But if you believe Russian propaganda M1's are easily defeated by T-55's.

https://tass.com/defense/1567245   (TASS is a Russian 'news' agency)

Abrams tanks repeatedly demonstrated their vulnerability during the hostilities in Iraq, the expert pointed out. "As the Iraq combat experience shows, they went up in flames. The tank turret was pierced by a 100mm armor-piercing blunt nose projectile fired by a T-55 tank. There were instances when Abrams vehicles were struck by automatic guns of both Bradley and our BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles," he said.

Instances are also known when the American tank was destroyed by the first Soviet modifications of T-72 tanks firing old shells "that were withdrawn from operational use even before the Abrams concept was devised," Suvorov said.

The expert also pointed to the instances when Abrams tanks were wiped out by RPG-7 anti-tank grenade launchers.

The American tank almost has no chances, if it engages in a duel with Russian tanks, the expert said.   :ROFL:

"If an Abrams emerges at a long distance, a T-72 or a T-90 crew will fire an anti-tank missile and we can say that the Abrams will even have no chance to fire a shot as its range of fire won't allow it to do that," he explained.


Russian propaganda will say anything to make themselves feel better.  The part about the ATGM fire from tanks is wrong.  The Abrams sabot round fires at such a high velocity that it would kill the Russian tanks before their ATGMs were even half way there.  Plus they are saclos like a TOW, so the Russian tank has to sit there guiding it in like a sitting duck.  Guess we'll find out soon enough about west vs east armor.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 04:07:56 PM
Quote from: MikeGER on March 22, 2023, 10:23:29 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 08:20:58 AMSo, how many T-55s will it take to take on a Leopard II?


it will take 38 T55  (because the Leo2A6 has 37 rounds onboard)   :wink:

actually a few less but not much less.
 the Leopards, usualy operating in a group of 4, have to aim and reload and so a large group of tanks showing up simultan may score a softkill on the moving Leopards while old tanks  have to stop to fire, damaging optics, tracks, turret mechanic ... and the Leopard will fall back to get repairs

Great points

Combat Mission x2 Cold War actually has T-55s, and a very early M1 (pre M1A1 I believe)...no Leopards sadly.  I suppose I could whip up a quick scenario with 1 M1 vs a company of T-55s just to see what happens...:)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 22, 2023, 04:08:37 PM
I just wonder where the UAFs will deploy the armour. In my mind they need a breakout situation in a region where they can really put some miles in and disrupt the hell out of logistics and comms.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 22, 2023, 04:10:36 PM
Moscow?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 22, 2023, 04:32:38 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 04:07:56 PM
Quote from: MikeGER on March 22, 2023, 10:23:29 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 08:20:58 AMSo, how many T-55s will it take to take on a Leopard II?


it will take 38 T55  (because the Leo2A6 has 37 rounds onboard)   :wink:

actually a few less but not much less.
 the Leopards, usualy operating in a group of 4, have to aim and reload and so a large group of tanks showing up simultan may score a softkill on the moving Leopards while old tanks  have to stop to fire, damaging optics, tracks, turret mechanic ... and the Leopard will fall back to get repairs

Great points

Combat Mission x2 Cold War actually has T-55s, and a very early M1 (pre M1A1 I believe)...no Leopards sadly.  I suppose I could whip up a quick scenario with 1 M1 vs a company of T-55s just to see what happens...:)

I'll play it PBEM/HtH against you as the RED commander.  That way you'll have a human opponent who is approximately as good as a 24 year old Russian company commander in the current war.  :grin:   It might be interesting to post a quick (and it will be quick) video for the benefit of the forum....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 22, 2023, 05:23:57 PM
I can't watch.... if the western tanks have OEM thermals, it'll be a blood bath
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2023, 07:45:36 PM
I see your T-54s and raise you some T-34s.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1638631518720634889
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 22, 2023, 08:31:33 PM
Quote from: Windigo on March 22, 2023, 04:08:37 PMI just wonder where the UAFs will deploy the armour. In my mind they need a breakout situation in a region where they can really put some miles in and disrupt the hell out of logistics and comms.

I think the old adage is that you use infantry and artillery to create and/or find a weakness, and then punch through with armor once you know where that weakness is.  I'm sure that the Abrams and the Lep2s and the Challengers will be more then a match for any individual Russian tanks.  Just like the Panthers and the Tigers were more than a match for the Shermans.

My own suspicion is that a few hundred modern IFVs will likely prove more decisive than a few dozen modern NATO tanks.  IF the Ukes can get the various systems working together well, we'll be much more likely to see a critical mass of combat ability in a place that overwhelms the Russians.  As the Ukrainians proved quite recently, tanks without infantry support get stretched thin VERY quickly.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 22, 2023, 09:39:07 PM
I would think anywhere the Western tanks showed-up would be a huge distraction for the Orcs forcing them to deploy lots of assets against them even if the Ukrainians didn't plan on using them for battle. Throw in some convincing mock-ups and the Russkies could be chasing their tails around for weeks. That would be worth watching on Pay-Per-View.  :pc:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 23, 2023, 08:08:48 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 04:07:56 PM
Quote from: MikeGER on March 22, 2023, 10:23:29 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 08:20:58 AMSo, how many T-55s will it take to take on a Leopard II?


it will take 38 T55  (because the Leo2A6 has 37 rounds onboard)   :wink:

actually a few less but not much less.
 the Leopards, usualy operating in a group of 4, have to aim and reload and so a large group of tanks showing up simultan may score a softkill on the moving Leopards while old tanks  have to stop to fire, damaging optics, tracks, turret mechanic ... and the Leopard will fall back to get repairs

Great points

Combat Mission x2 Cold War actually has T-55s, and a very early M1 (pre M1A1 I believe)...no Leopards sadly.  I suppose I could whip up a quick scenario with 1 M1 vs a company of T-55s just to see what happens...:)

For those interested in how a CM2 protrays a scenario of M1 vs. T-55, check out this video from "Usually Hapless":  https://youtu.be/VjlHTJUP2Nk 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 23, 2023, 09:19:59 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 23, 2023, 08:08:48 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 04:07:56 PM
Quote from: MikeGER on March 22, 2023, 10:23:29 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2023, 08:20:58 AMSo, how many T-55s will it take to take on a Leopard II?


it will take 38 T55  (because the Leo2A6 has 37 rounds onboard)  :wink:

actually a few less but not much less.
 the Leopards, usualy operating in a group of 4, have to aim and reload and so a large group of tanks showing up simultan may score a softkill on the moving Leopards while old tanks  have to stop to fire, damaging optics, tracks, turret mechanic ... and the Leopard will fall back to get repairs

Great points

Combat Mission x2 Cold War actually has T-55s, and a very early M1 (pre M1A1 I believe)...no Leopards sadly.  I suppose I could whip up a quick scenario with 1 M1 vs a company of T-55s just to see what happens...:)

For those interested in how a CM2 protrays a scenario of M1 vs. T-55, check out this video from "Usually Hapless":  https://youtu.be/VjlHTJUP2Nk 

Good stuff!!! I forgot that CMSF2 has T-55s. Not to mention more upgraded Abrams.  Anyway, the video certainly give some food for thought. I would not want to be a Russian tanker.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 23, 2023, 10:08:40 AM
In fairness, the Command Shock Force has more open (Desert) terrain, so the T-55 is even more disadvantaged than it would be in the Ukraine.  Regardless, I don't see the engagements in Ukraine ending up any better in a T-55 vs. +1985-era NATO tank. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 23, 2023, 12:53:57 PM
I'm sure it has been discussed upthread and elsewhere online but where are Russia's vaunted newer T-90s and similar?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 23, 2023, 12:55:27 PM
Re the TASS article about modern US tanks standing almost no chance based on supposed data from the Gulf War(s): I haven't bothered to read the article yet, but I have to wonder -- how does the author explain losing the Gulf War so quickly? Twice?? (And the second time losing harder and faster than the first time, with basically only the US gaming for TeamUN?!)

Orc analysis: "AND THAT IS HOW SADDAM WON THE GULF WARS COMRADE!"  :HideEyes:


Re giving IFVs to the Uks more than tanks: well, in proportion that should be true anyway. But the Ukrainian raptor-pack tactics REAAALLLY worked out, late last year once they had enough fast moving Hummers etc.


Re the vaunted T-90s: at least 50% lost last I checked. Where 'lost' includes a significant number 'abandoned and captured by Ukraine'.

So a lot of those T-90s are still around but not exactly helping the Russians any!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 23, 2023, 01:03:18 PM
Any articles around on T-90's performance? When they're not being captured, I mean 👍
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 23, 2023, 01:28:50 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 23, 2023, 12:53:57 PMI'm sure it has been discussed upthread and elsewhere online but where are Russia's vaunted newer T-90s and similar?
They will start using them once things no longer go as planned.


I see 3 reasons why they aren't on the battlefield :

- saving them for an even worse period (defense of the motherland)
- to scared for the backlash should even the better equipment end up being destroyed with ease
- they only exist as prototypes

N° 3 looks most likely to me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 23, 2023, 01:34:26 PM
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-t90m-proryv-main-battle-tank-us-m1-abrams-ukraine-1789143
Article says Oryx has confirmed the Russkies have lost 15 T-90's so far. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 23, 2023, 02:16:27 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 23, 2023, 12:55:27 PMRe giving IFVs to the Uks more than tanks: well, in proportion that should be true anyway. But the Ukrainian raptor-pack tactics REAAALLLY worked out, late last year once they had enough fast moving Hummers etc.

There's an excellent article on Tanks vs AFVs and doctrine recently published in Foreign Policy, which generally does first-rate stuff:  https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/20/ukraine-russia-war-tanks-leopard-ifv-infantry-fighting-vehicle-bradley/


You'd expect more IFVs than tanks, but here's how the numbers work out for NATO-produced weapons committed in the last few months (it's amazing nobody keeps a running tally of these).  Obviously, "the ratio" varies depending on what kind of unit we're talking about.  Due to a head start on training times and slightly simpler logistical chains, we should expect to see the Western-made IFVs hitting the lines before the tanks.

Tanks:  14 Leopard 2s (sooner or later), 14 Challenger 2s (sooner or later), 31 Abrams (later), 59 in total w/another ~100 Lep1s and a dozen Lep2s also coming from Holland, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark (much later)

IFVs:  90 Strykers (sooner?), 109 Bradleys (sooner or later), 40 (?) Marders (sooner or later), 35 AMX-10 RCs (sooner or later) 225-285 in total.

Until such time as the heavily mothballed Leopard 1s show up, I guess the Strykers skew those numbers heavy on the IFV front, but this hearkens back to the whole "What is a tank?" sub-thread we had on here for a few pages back in January.  Strykers fit the IFV mold, but, depending on the model, might or might not pack be an apples-to-apples comparison with the Bradleys.

Most of the articles I've read talk about the utility of putting the modern NATO MBTs together with Bradleys in modern combined arms teams, suggesting that the Strykers and the AMX-10s might be farmed out to other Uke units.  I'm not sure where the Marders fit on that front, but I think most of us are guessing about the exact vintage of all the vehicles being delivered when.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 23, 2023, 02:41:08 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 22, 2023, 08:31:33 PM
Quote from: Windigo on March 22, 2023, 04:08:37 PMI just wonder where the UAFs will deploy the armour. In my mind they need a breakout situation in a region where they can really put some miles in and disrupt the hell out of logistics and comms.

I think the old adage is that you use infantry and artillery to create and/or find a weakness, and then punch through with armor once you know where that weakness is.  I'm sure that the Abrams and the Lep2s and the Challengers will be more then a match for any individual Russian tanks.  Just like the Panthers and the Tigers were more than a match for the Shermans.

My own suspicion is that a few hundred modern IFVs will likely prove more decisive than a few dozen modern NATO tanks.  IF the Ukes can get the various systems working together well, we'll be much more likely to see a critical mass of combat ability in a place that overwhelms the Russians.  As the Ukrainians proved quite recently, tanks without infantry support get stretched thin VERY quickly.

I am thinking the AFVs are key too, mobility and speed....
I brought up the armour as they have the potential with their superior optics to be critical in any breakthrough and carrying it through in the dark hours. When/if the UAF armour gets deployed.... those poor tanking bastards are going to be meth'd up to go for 72+ hours... the hangover will be epic and ridiculously nasty.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 23, 2023, 02:43:55 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2023, 07:45:36 PMI see your T-54s and raise you some T-34s.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1638631518720634889

I counted 30.... is that significant in terms of unit size?
I also was going to call BS, but all of the road wheels were nice and clean with snazy white trim on the edges of them. They have been cleaned up and made ready... what a shame to throw classics like these into the grinder.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2023, 02:52:22 PM
https://realcontextnews.com/offensive-smensive-8-reasons-why-russias-expected-offensive-cannot-succeed/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 23, 2023, 04:39:39 PM
^Heh 'offensive-smensive'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 23, 2023, 05:00:47 PM
I sense a little bias in that article....

nonetheless I do agree with most of their assertions, not that I am anything but a very bad armchair general with a lot of Ukrainian and Polish friends.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 23, 2023, 05:51:28 PM
Quote from: Windigo on March 23, 2023, 05:00:47 PMI sense a little bias in that article....

nonetheless I do agree with most of their assertions, not that I am anything but a very bad armchair general with a lot of Ukrainian and Polish friends.

I'm in the same camp as you.  It's an interesting read, but many of the conclusions hinge on trusting the Ukrainian statements about Russian casualties.  It also relies on the assumption that the Russians can't keep throwing bodies at the Ukrainians until they've taken 1,000,000 casualties.  The casualty ratio that article cites for infantry loss about matches the ratio of military fatalities in the Russian defeat of Nazi Germany in WW2.

While all of the ideas articulated there are popular assertions in the expert groupthink that predominates in the West these days, I'll be a bit more wary of the fog of war until I see the Russians making more than one or two tactical retreats. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 23, 2023, 06:03:12 PM
I'd be curious to know if anybody, on either side, has any hard numbers on how often tanks are fighting tanks.  My recollection from Zaloga's Armored Thunderbolt is that a detailed analysis by the US Army suggested that tanks accounted for about 15% of all enemy tank kills in Western Europe from 1944-1945. 

Anti-tank guns accounted for the most, with hand-held anti-tank weapons accounting for as many tank kills as enemy tanks.  Mines, artillery, and other means were all significantly less common.  I've got to think that ratio is even more tilted towards hand-held anti-tank weapons in the Ukraine war.

One of Zaloga's primary conclusions was that most historical evaluations of the Sherman relied upon an evaluation of one-on-one tank clashes, where it came out a definite loser to either the Panther or the Tiger.  The Sherman sported arguably the best medium-caliber HE round of the war, and given that tanks on both sides fired many more HE shells than AP shells, it really misvalued the Sherman's contribution to focus on the tank-vs-tank match-ups.

That's not to say that more modern, better-maintained tanks won't outperform the Russian tanks, but that it's harder to evaluate how they'll be used against mixed-arms formations in fixed positions.  I hope I'm being too pessimistic here.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2023, 08:16:24 PM
https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/munitions-return-to-a-place-of-prominence-in-national-security/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 23, 2023, 09:43:52 PM
So where are those T54s/55s coming from?

Allllll the way over across the coast from northern Japan!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11zdw5z/satellite_images_show_that_soviet_tanks_t5455_are/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3


Edited to add: to be fair, those T54/55 platforms were probably intended for North Korea a long time ago: the factory is right on a tip of Nork territory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 23, 2023, 09:46:05 PM
When whatsisface was talking about Russian T-72s taking out modern Western tanks in the Gulf Wars... here's a reminder what T54s would be up against:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11zjtii/a_comparison_between_challenger_2_vs_t54/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

...."LOOK AT ALL THAT TARGET COMRADE, WE CANNOT MISS, THEY WILL NEVER EVEN BE ABLE TO SEE US!"  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2023, 09:52:22 PM
 :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 23, 2023, 09:52:39 PM
Well, I hope those Ts still have good motors from their rust-yards near Japan, because Russian armor will have to go short on motors for a while...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11zj9k5/in_russia_yaroslavl_motor_plant_is_on_fire_it/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 23, 2023, 10:06:54 PM
Prigozhin prepares people to understand why Wagner is going to fail at Bahkmut...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11znd8w/ukrainian_troops_prepared_about_200000_reserve/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Note, will require some "Downfall" subtitling. Just without the histronics.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2023, 12:43:49 AM
Four Mig29s were donated by Slovakia, and Ukrainian pilots flew them to Ukraine.

So much for all the hand wringing from last year when there was great concern about having Ukrainian pilots fly donated aircraft directly from the country donating to Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/four-slovakian-mig-29s-flown-directly-to-ukraine-to-join-its-air-force/ar-AA190iVH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ca8c25a4f55b44f59243c1d4eb6b4fd3&ei=23 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/four-slovakian-mig-29s-flown-directly-to-ukraine-to-join-its-air-force/ar-AA190iVH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ca8c25a4f55b44f59243c1d4eb6b4fd3&ei=23)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 24, 2023, 12:45:39 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 23, 2023, 10:06:54 PMPrigozhin prepares people to understand why Wagner is going to fail at Bahkmut...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11znd8w/ukrainian_troops_prepared_about_200000_reserve/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Note, will require some "Downfall" subtitling. Just without the histronics.

One of the rumor sites even said they had it on good authority that Wagner is going to get out of Ukraine and concentrate on Africa.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 24, 2023, 07:40:13 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 23, 2023, 09:52:39 PMWell, I hope those Ts still have good motors from their rust-yards near Japan, because Russian armor will have to go short on motors for a while...

I've seen a lot of comments saying that while they actually might succeed in transporting numerous T-55s to Ukraine the state of them will be so bad they won't be running after a couple of months - if that - due to engine and transmission issues alone.

For instance

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1638981612749705221
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 24, 2023, 09:28:17 AM
There's a lot of Spartanesque "If" built into Russia's warplans nowadays. ;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 24, 2023, 09:49:16 AM
Russia planning to try to take Kyiv again this summer?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 24, 2023, 05:04:29 PM
That's a good clip, Gus.  Thanks for sharing!  Best quote I've heard in a long time:  "America doesn't lose wars.  America loses interest."

By my math, our government is spending an amount equal to about 9% of our total 2023 defense budget on the Ukraine War.  That number is more than I thought it would be but less than I think it should be. 

It's given us a chance to draw down older inventories we were going to retire in another decade, it's given us a chance to battle-test weapon systems and doctrines in a real high-intensity conflict, and it's given us a chance to seriously degrade Russian military capabilities as they and Ukraine stagger towards a Finish Line where the last man on his feet wins.  From a purely mercenary standpoint, it's rationally in our own self-interest, both to weaken our only European rival and to set a deterrent policy for other would-be regional aggressors the world over.

Most importantly, it's the right thing to do.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 24, 2023, 05:36:50 PM
^It's definitely the right thing to do.

Another great quote from the above is, roughly 'Russia is going to find out why the United States does not have universal health care.'

 :cool:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2023, 05:54:16 PM
arty cant work any closer to friendlies.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1639342501059260416
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2023, 06:12:09 PM
anyone want an escort?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr_Rvy8WIAA4XIy?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 24, 2023, 06:45:20 PM
Point blank artillery impact?  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 25, 2023, 04:26:20 PM
9.3 for sticking the landing.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsEMhiHX0AAWIek?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 25, 2023, 05:03:06 PM
^Anyone else see a Punisher-like skull in that image, with its right eye bashed in?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 25, 2023, 10:26:52 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 25, 2023, 05:03:06 PM^Anyone else see a Punisher-like skull in that image, with its right eye bashed in?

I was just about to nominate a few extra style decimals for that!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 25, 2023, 10:27:43 PM
Meanwhile it is 26 hours after Star made his "escort" joke and I feel both relief and also disappointment at the lack of inventive replies...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 25, 2023, 10:31:07 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 24, 2023, 06:45:20 PMPoint blank artillery impact?  :shocked:

Speaking of, this video may be taken down, not sure, but when I first saw it, it seemed to show a 30 to 50 yard proximity to a Russian base reaaallly forward observing at HIMARS-local-time. Correction, I hope: it just requires a Reddit account.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/121v8nb/himars_strike_on_russian_command_positions_%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%B2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Site is supposed to be Svatove.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 25, 2023, 10:42:36 PM
Did someone want to know where the T-90s are?

This was from a couple of days ago, but half of the remaining Russian T-90s are with the Wagner group rolling up to Bakhmut.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/120yc2d/wagner_t90ms_near_bakhmut_23032023/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

By 'half' I mean 'five' (though you'd be forgiven for thinking I meant 'four' -- the last one is almost off frame at some distance back on the road.)

And by 'half' I mean 'one third'...  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 25, 2023, 11:03:12 PM
Lenin and Trotsky especially will be glad to know that blocking squads are still.... man I can't even make a joke about it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/121j88d/they_are_dumped_into_the_trenches_like_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Those are some hard shellshocked thousand-yard stares.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 26, 2023, 02:16:02 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 25, 2023, 10:27:43 PMMeanwhile it is 26 hours after Star made his "escort" joke and I feel both relief and also disappointment at the lack of inventive replies...

where was the joke?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 26, 2023, 02:00:19 PM
We've been hearing this "They're ruining their best formations" chatter out of Western analysts for a while, but this is the first time I'm hearing it from a pro-Russian commentator who seems to have some real bona fides.  It's a little unclear to me if he's a former or current Russian general.

https://www.newsweek.com/russias-forces-making-no-progress-key-offensive-former-commander-1790354

At first I was thinking that Russia's apparent lack of control of the Russian information sphere was a bug in Putin's program and even a sign of weakness.  But, as I study it more closely, I'm coming to believe that it's a feature. 

Russian commentators are allowed to be critical of individual generals and military decisions, but I'm not aware that any internal Russian commentators are allowed to be critical of the war's purpose or of Putin himself.  That consistency suggests that the Russians do have control of the information space, as they've not been afraid to lie blatantly on certain other topics (e.g., Ukrainian atrocities). 

It also speaks to Putin's calculations that he can't risk any particular military figure or group becoming powerful enough to challenge him.  Even if that limits his military's effectiveness in the short term.

Putin's clearly settled in for the long game now, hoping that NATO will tire of supporting Ukraine and/or the Ukrainian people will grow tired of being bombed. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 26, 2023, 05:31:14 PM
Im pretty comfortable about where the Wests head is at with the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 26, 2023, 10:14:55 PM
Bill Whittle just got finished researching, producing, and filming a new documentary on what Lenin and his crew did to Russia with Stalin after him and so on down to the 90s, and upon returning from filming it he gave a bit of interesting un-trivial trivia about Putin's grandfather with whom Putin lived for the first 13 years of his life.

Putin's grandfather was the private cook for Lenin for three or four years, and then Stalin's private cook for 20 years; so he got to be absolutely immersed in the insular propaganda of the Soviet Union from its development out of post-medieval peasantry to a nuclear superpower (all thanks to true Communism, per the propaganda).

Those are the glorious stories Putin heard about in his formative years all the time, about people who regarded a million deaths (or any at all) as a statistic to bring about the glory of themselves, cough, Russia. And while they didn't succeed in taking over Germany on the way to taking over Europe and then the world, they did get to keep the personal power they craved.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 26, 2023, 10:16:02 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 26, 2023, 02:16:02 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 25, 2023, 10:27:43 PMMeanwhile it is 26 hours after Star made his "escort" joke and I feel both relief and also disappointment at the lack of inventive replies...

where was the joke?

More of an amusing observation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 27, 2023, 01:27:28 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 26, 2023, 02:00:19 PMWe've been hearing this "They're ruining their best formations" chatter out of Western analysts for a while, but this is the first time I'm hearing it from a pro-Russian commentator who seems to have some real bona fides.  It's a little unclear to me if he's a former or current Russian general.

https://www.newsweek.com/russias-forces-making-no-progress-key-offensive-former-commander-1790354

At first I was thinking that Russia's apparent lack of control of the Russian information sphere was a bug in Putin's program and even a sign of weakness.  But, as I study it more closely, I'm coming to believe that it's a feature. 

Russian commentators are allowed to be critical of individual generals and military decisions, but I'm not aware that any internal Russian commentators are allowed to be critical of the war's purpose or of Putin himself.  That consistency suggests that the Russians do have control of the information space, as they've not been afraid to lie blatantly on certain other topics (e.g., Ukrainian atrocities). 

It also speaks to Putin's calculations that he can't risk any particular military figure or group becoming powerful enough to challenge him.  Even if that limits his military's effectiveness in the short term.

Putin's clearly settled in for the long game now, hoping that NATO will tire of supporting Ukraine and/or the Ukrainian people will grow tired of being bombed. 

Igor Girkin, responsible for downing the Dutch passenger plane in 2014, not really a former commander, certainly a key figure of the only opposition allowed to persist. War opposition, that is, demanding even harsher measures to win the war. Even they have their rules as you observed: attack individual commanders for making a mess of the war, no words against Putin and his band of siloviks.

Putin's now made a statement to place nuclear forces in Belarus, Lukasenko has been quiet, but he's in a dire spot anyway. Belarus too is sort of a semi-democracy still, where the semi comes from the autocratic and violent leaders, while there is a constant risk people will hit the streets, similar to Maidan 2014. Maidan, let us remember, was a protest first and foremost against corruption, and in that case against the Russian sponsored corruption in particular. The EU deal that the Russian protege president vetoed was after all mostly a trade deal, certainly a step towards EU and liberal democracy. Putin's first enemy is liberal democracy, hence his reaction.

There's been preciously little nuclear warmongering from Putin since both China and India, among others, in public statements stated nuclear blackmail should not be done. Putin's playing a weakening hand, and while he always bluffs, it is becoming more and more evident to everyone.

Seems from what I've read the key reason for placing nuclear forces to Belarus is to tighten the hold of the country. Annexing Belarus - White Russians - and Ukraine - Little Russians - to Mother Russia was after all his key immediate priority when launching his brutal invasion. We saw the editorials which congratulated him from achieving this great unification of Russian empire. edit: the fact Putin made the statement on nukes on Belarus' day of independence carries symbolism as well. Their independence reduced a step or three further, again.

I now had the time to watch the video in the previous page, long war seems to be Putin's strategy now. And while the video makes excellent points as how he can achieve this in hiring minorities from poorest areas almost ad finite, there's the economical front as well where Putin's doing not that great either. Much was made from Xi's visit to Moscow, but what Putin asked in i) support for building a new gas pipe to China, ii) loans, and iii) arms support, he got none.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 27, 2023, 07:52:18 AM
Remembering how Putin got into his teenage years hearing (insular) stories of the greatness of the rise of the Soviet Union from his grandfather (personal cook to Lenin and Stalin for ~25 years), no doubt one of those stories would have been about the communist marvel of Stalin's pipe-organ, the Katyusha rocket trucks! -- made from Studebakers (among other things) and ammunition intended originally for Stalin's special "Ivanov" project, the close support rocket bombers so simple any Ivan could fly one.

Stalin never got his 100 to 150K Ivanovs made that he commissioned, although to be fair he did get the (much more complex) IL-2 made instead, in something like similar numbers. Most of them were destroyed by the Nazis of course, but they doubtless helped win the East Front and thus WW2 altogether.  :notworthy:

But all the rockets intended for the Ivanov project had already been made when Barbarossa started (since of course they could be used with other things if necessary), so on June 22nd 1941 Stalin no longer had any need for a massive swarm of blue-sky close-support bombers that couldn't dogfight and weren't armored and had no rear gunner.

But he did suddenly have a need for local rocket support on defense, so ta-daaa the Communist production miracle of the Pipe Organs, soon to be famous around the world!

.....I have a reason for mentioning this, of course:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/122dk3g/russian_is_moving_ww2_equipment_towards_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

AW YEAH PUTIN ISN'T FOOLING AROUND ANYMORE!  :RockOn:  One pipe organ on the way to the front! (Actually near the Ukrainian border already?)

Plus a couple of WW2 anti-tank pieces (76mm?) for perimeter defense I guess? There are other American Studs and a Zil-A (i.e. a Ford 1932 Model A) plus a Zis-5 in the convoy, too.

The pipe organ, oddly, is rolling with rockets on the rails, already ready to go already! They seem like relatively more modern rockets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 27, 2023, 08:19:28 AM
Fortunately for Putin, he has much better ways to throw high-explosive at the enemy. Like his T-90s!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/122ms05/yet_another_russian_t90_tank_destroyed_by/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

...oh. Um... 6-2/3% less of his remaining T90s than he used to have.

The good news for Putin is that the Ukrainians didn't capture it. But if you look closely, a little down and to the left, you can see a Uk tractor ready to tow just in case!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 27, 2023, 10:30:19 AM
Very interesting article on one fundamental aspect of this war that will likely never show up in a wargame but is every bit as critical to the Ukrainian conduct of the war as any fancy weapons systems:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/26/politics/us-army-ukraine-medical-training/index.html

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 27, 2023, 10:40:49 AM
I've heard reports that Russian medical recovery is not even as good as their command, communications, and logistics.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 27, 2023, 10:51:02 AM
You gotta hand it to the Russkies, they build tanks that keep on firing even after they're on fire.  :shocked: Advanced Medical Training and Assistance is one area the West could help the Ukrainians far out perform the Orcs in every category of saving lives and the resultant increase in troop morale would be worth every effort.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 27, 2023, 12:10:37 PM
I think there has been training of Ukrainians for casualty evac and medical care.  Large number of western volunteers help with casualty evac.

Still more can be done for the Ukrainians in this department though.

It's definitely better than the Russian side.  I've seen some numbers say that large numbers of Russian wounded that should have been survivable, were Kia due to terrible evac and medical care.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 27, 2023, 06:31:57 PM
I assume that the article I linked above was correct when it stated that certain severe casualties in the Ukrainian army are being treated in hospitals in NATO countries.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 27, 2023, 08:22:02 PM
yes they are.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 27, 2023, 10:47:45 PM
he russians are going to be even more fucked.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2023, 01:25:20 AM
fluff

https://twitter.com/i/status/1640375132064497667
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 28, 2023, 02:08:19 AM
Quote from: Skoop on March 27, 2023, 12:10:37 PMI think there has been training of Ukrainians for casualty evac and medical care.  Large number of western volunteers help with casualty evac.

Still more can be done for the Ukrainians in this department though.

It's definitely better than the Russian side.  I've seen some numbers say that large numbers of Russian wounded that should have been survivable, were Kia due to terrible evac and medical care.

Some shocking analysis out there on Russians medevac and treatment for sure. In that it does not seem to exist for most part. This from yesterday for instance:

QuoteI've gone deeply into the subject of battle casualties, non-battle casualties and KIA to WIA casualty ratios in previous threads like this. So I'm going to do cliff notes to cut to the strategic point.

At a 2 dead to 3 wounded casualty ratio, Russia has suffered 255,825 wounded in action on top of 170,550 dead.

That is a total KIA plus WIA total of 426,375 Russian battle casualties.

This doesn't include non-battle casualties, for which see the link below.

2-to-3 ratio, if we're to trust his analysis  :HideEyes:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1640159311853678592


Quite (!) a read. Have a look, the whole thread by him:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1640159311853678592.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 28, 2023, 02:40:01 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on March 28, 2023, 02:08:19 AM2-to-3 ratio, if we're to trust his analysis  :HideEyes:

Indeed, he's taken some flak for his analysis. Here's his rebuttal. While the amount of drones is not known, I am assuming they are available in great numbers, and an open steppe in winter with no leaves on any of the trees or vegetation out there, it is not a happy place to be under constant surveillance.

That said, this does not touch his dead-to-wounded ratio analysis at all.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1640403149662961679.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 28, 2023, 07:56:12 AM
My belief that support kitties are genius, continues unabated.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 28, 2023, 09:34:51 AM
Indeed. My cat has volunteered me to fight in Ukraine 3 times since Christmas. They are clearly supportive of the Fight for Freedom abroad and Tyranny in their own homes.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 28, 2023, 10:04:39 AM
Tyranny and cuddles. And attention. And schizophrenia.

Cats are awesome.  :cool: They would usually make REALLY iffy humans, admittedly. But as cats they're dramatically and comedically amusing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 28, 2023, 10:27:34 AM
Democracy always looks better in the other dictator's litter box.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 28, 2023, 10:59:21 AM
Well No Shit! (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/ukraine-aims-to-exhaust-russian-troops-in-bakhmut-general/ar-AA19a5M8?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=cb8968bb293b4b1b9f124de98c9fd391&ei=27)

God this is so obvious... like seriously it gets published as news?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2023, 06:09:37 PM
not saying this is happening but it could happen.  :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsU07JMXoAAnboi?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 28, 2023, 06:21:45 PM
Interesting commentary about two months ago from Ward Carroll and Justin Bronk, where Mr. Bronk suggests that:


The podcast is about 2 months old, but it was interesting to see what predictions Bronk was making back in January when the news first broke about the tanks.  Most of them seemed borne out by the events of the last two months.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2023, 06:28:46 PM
the US is no longer sending new build M1s but ones taken out of storage for faster arrival time.
also the much hoped for offensive wont be kicking off until probably the beginning of May.  I was
looking at weather forecasts for the next 2 weeks and its still going to be mud, mud, mud.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 28, 2023, 09:49:40 PM
Yeah.  I've heard so many different reports on when the Abrams will be arriving, I've come to the conclusion that even the Pentagon hasn't figured it all out yet.  Last I'd heard, the decision to supply them with M1A1s instead of M1A2s was what was necessitating the lengthy unmothballing time, but even there I've read different reports.

Once I hear the same story consistently for a month, or once I see photos of them being loaded onto trains in France or Holland, I'll take it for the truth!  Various vintages of the Leopards, meanwhile, are widely available in abundant numbers across Europe. 

Bronk was pretty definite in predicting that Russian readiness would be at its nadir during the Spring and Summer but, if the Ukrainians aren't able to chew up a lot of the Russian army in the Spring and Summer, the Russians will have better prepared reinforcements flowing in by mid-Fall.  Bronk had more confidence in the predictability of the Russian Army than I do, but he stated his arguments pretty persuasively.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2023, 11:46:22 PM
this is the actual russian army in its more or less modern sense.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 29, 2023, 03:28:57 AM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-caught-red-handed-making-fake-video-of-ukrainian-attack-on-woman-and-child

Russia's Foreign Ministry has been forced to delete its latest dubious evidence of "Nazis" in Ukraine after the video was revealed as a poorly staged fake—by one of the propaganda outlets that first began circulating it.

The two-minute video served as the outrage of the day for the Kremlin's numerous mouthpieces Monday, where it was touted as irrefutable evidence of Ukrainian troops abusing civilians who dared to speak Russian.
In the clip, filmed on a woman's dash-cam, a vehicle with a Ukrainian flag on the back pulls up before two men in camouflage jump out with rifles and one of them begins cursing out the woman before appearing to fire at her car while a child sits inside it.

"Once a Nazi always a Nazi," Russia's Foreign Ministry captioned the video on its official Twitter account. "This is the kind of terror Ukrainians are living in: witness Ukrainian military berate and shoot at a mother with a child in the backseat, calling her 'pig' & 'scum' simply for... speaking Russian. No Nazis, they say..."

Unfortunately for Russia's diplomats, if the overacting in the clip wasn't enough of a red flag, the video was almost immediately geolocated to an area deep in Russian-controlled Donetsk. Moreover, dash-cams have been banned on Ukrainian territory during the war.

Even pro-Kremlin Telegram channels admitted the video was a clumsy fake.
"The video is fake. Our [guys] are clumsily practicing. In carrying out such information operations, our [guys] still have to learn and learn," wrote the pro-war channel Notes of a Veteran, one of the first to begin circulating the clip.


https://twitter.com/Shtirlitz53/status/1640356356002545664
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 29, 2023, 08:53:19 AM
"The video is fake. Our [guys] are clumsily practicing. In carrying out such information operations, our [guys] still have to learn and learn," wrote the pro-war channel Notes of a Veteran, one of the first to begin circulating the clip.

This sounds more like they are complaining about how poorly done it was, not that it shouldn't be done. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 29, 2023, 09:28:51 AM
Damn! So does that mean the video I saw of Putin raising the dead was fake too?  :doh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 29, 2023, 10:05:18 AM
Meanwhile Xi Jinping is taking notes on mobilization and what not to do. #1 on the list is 'don't be Russia.'

From Foreign Affairs:

https://fam.ag/3lQTU9b

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 29, 2023, 11:43:31 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 29, 2023, 08:53:19 AM
Quote"The video is fake. Our [guys] are clumsily practicing. In carrying out such information operations, our [guys] still have to learn and learn," wrote the pro-war channel Notes of a Veteran, one of the first to begin circulating the clip.

This sounds more like they are complaining about how poorly done it was, not that it shouldn't be done. 

I was about to say! -- that's practically like Goebbels' speech where he brags that the other nations will lose because Nazi propaganda is so much more effective!

Ironically.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 29, 2023, 11:45:40 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 28, 2023, 06:09:37 PMnot saying this is happening but it could happen.  :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsU07JMXoAAnboi?format=jpg&name=large)


That's a hell of a big gun for target practice!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 29, 2023, 11:54:32 AM
Bring back the T-28!  :ctf2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 29, 2023, 12:18:23 PM
STEEL FORTRESS TRUNDLES TO WICTORY!!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 29, 2023, 12:42:56 PM
Excalibur rounds    :cool:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2023, 05:45:28 PM
so people were joking about Leos with photoshoped era armor added to them.
seems the meme turned real.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsaFKz-WABg3aZb?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2023, 05:51:13 PM
beavers doing what the russians cant.   :ROFL:
part 1:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1640395972529340425

part 2:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1641075766921142275
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2023, 06:22:14 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 29, 2023, 11:54:32 AMBring back the T-28!  :ctf2:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr5qRKCXgAQnmUW?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 29, 2023, 09:46:18 PM
Nice pic Star.  :ThumbsUp: Can those be the new, Beaver Drones I've been hearing about? They're attracted to the wooden Command Structure of the Russians.  :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 29, 2023, 11:21:03 PM
I'm sure Star was just Googling links for "Ukrainian beaver" and that's how he ran across it...    :pizza[1]:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 30, 2023, 07:17:14 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2023, 06:22:14 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 29, 2023, 11:54:32 AMBring back the T-28!  :ctf2:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr5qRKCXgAQnmUW?format=png&name=small)

That is one hell of a shell trap! Not sure if it's a T-28 though: not enough turrets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 30, 2023, 09:06:40 AM
Looks like a T-26.

Edit: Nope, roadwheels give it away as they are quite unique. A BT-series -5 or -7 cruiser tank it is as @W8taminute correctly points out below.

(https://alternathistory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/wall6238406_86814-00.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 30, 2023, 09:17:35 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2023, 06:22:14 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 29, 2023, 11:54:32 AMBring back the T-28!  :ctf2:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr5qRKCXgAQnmUW?format=png&name=small)

If the tank has shadows from the sun, photoshop the tank in a sunny landscape.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-given-holy-candles-not-battle-gear-to-protect-them-in-ukraine

Russian draftees in the country's Perm region have been given "protection candles" instead of much-needed equipment and told to light them in the heat of battle to "cast out evil spirits."

"This is some fucked-up shit. I'm more and more astonished by these gags. They gave such candles to everyone in the squadron. What jackass is going to light this in battle, this candle of protection? They somehow can't issue new uniforms or combat boots on time, but distributing candles is no problem," one soldier told local outlet Perm 36,6.

A photo he provided of one of the candles in question shows that it came with instructions featuring the Russian Orthodox cross and advice to "light the candle in battle" in order to dispel fear and make bullets "not scary."

The instructions also unironically featured the pro-war slogan, "We don't abandon our own."

Other men called up to fight in Ukraine from the region also recently complained of being issued uniforms that smell "like they were pulled off corpses and given to us."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 30, 2023, 09:32:25 AM
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/03/27/7158755/

How Russian Nukes in Belarus Undermine China's Xi Authority

"All nuclear powers must not deploy nuclear weapons outside their national territories," Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping signed this joint statement in Moscow. The document was supposed to confirm the comprehensive partnership of the two anti-Western states.

However, just four days after, it became clear that the agreement with Putin was worthless. Contrary to the deal with Beijing, Russia will deploy its nuclear weapons on the territory of the neighbouring state, Belarus.

Therefore, the reaction of the USA and NATO to this statement has turned out to be quite restrained.

More importantly, Putin's nuclear announcement is a slap in the face to Xi and will affect trust between China and Russia.



Looks like the meeting between Putin & Xi didn't go as well as Putin wants us to know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 30, 2023, 09:40:23 AM
I'm not sure I understand the whole, 'Holy Candles' article. The Russian draftees in the Perm Region, are they going into battle against the Ukrainians, or are they just assigned to Perm? If they are going into battle with candles for protection then that's lunacy. But if they're just stationed in Perm or elsewhere, then it sounds like somebody's idea of a lucrative side business. Cha-Ching!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on March 30, 2023, 09:49:07 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 30, 2023, 09:40:23 AMI'm not sure I understand the whole, 'Holy Candles' article. The Russian draftees in the Perm Region, are they going into battle against the Ukrainians, or are they just assigned to Perm? If they are going into battle with candles for protection then that's lunacy. But if they're just stationed in Perm or elsewhere, then it sounds like somebody's idea of a lucrative side business. Cha-Ching!

Drafted in the Perm Region but going to Ukraine to light fight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 30, 2023, 09:50:49 AM
Step one: assure China you won't invade Ukraine.

Step two: invade Ukraine.

Step three: assure China nations won't deploy nukes outside national boundaries.

Step four: deploy nukes to Belarus.

Step five: ...China supports annexation of Belarus as national territory...?

Step six: profit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 30, 2023, 09:59:02 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 30, 2023, 09:17:35 AMIf the tank has shadows from the sun, photoshop the tank in a sunny landscape.

Ha, true! -- though then make sure the shadows run the same way.

The retention of the memorial flower on the front, near the left treadwell, was a nice touch.

Also agree with Crossroads, T-26! Although someone needs to add more photoshop reactive plating to the front shell trap; like four more layers...!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 30, 2023, 10:32:00 AM
That's a BT-7 fast tank.  The T-28 is literally a steel fortress of multiple gun turrets. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 30, 2023, 10:54:22 AM
some interesting Firefox shit:

https://news.yahoo.com/this-is-like-a-movie-ukraines-secret-plan-to-convince-3-russian-pilots-to-defect-with-their-planes-030018349.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 30, 2023, 11:01:59 AM
^I love that  :RockOn:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 30, 2023, 02:38:25 PM
All 3 now reassigned to flying Suicide Drones.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 30, 2023, 02:58:29 PM
I forgot about Firefox, that might be worth a watch again...... been several decades.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: greengiant on March 31, 2023, 04:54:44 AM
One thing I don't see getting much attention in this thread is the hilarious (and sad) batsh*t insane propaganda Russian news spews out on a daily basis. On another forum I'm a member of, there are four or five threads dedicated to this war, each with their own unique focus with one of them being 'sh*t Russia says'. We've got a few anti-war Russian members who are very helpful in sharing clips from Russian media.

A typical example of your daily Russian media blurb is how they try spin every loss they've had thus far into some sort of victory or alternatively 'actually we blew up our own stuff because...reasons'. Is there any rule against sharing that kind of stuff here?; or to put the question another way, is this something our Groghead posters would like to see now and again (because I'd be happy to share some of them).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 05:52:49 AM
Julia Davis does a great job covering russian media bs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 06:22:09 AM
Quote from: greengiant on March 31, 2023, 04:54:44 AMOne thing I don't see getting much attention in this thread is the hilarious (and sad) batsh*t insane propaganda Russian news spews out on a daily basis. On another forum I'm a member of, there are four or five threads dedicated to this war, each with their own unique focus with one of them being 'sh*t Russia says'. We've got a few anti-war Russian members who are very helpful in sharing clips from Russian media.

A typical example of your daily Russian media blurb is how they try spin every loss they've had thus far into some sort of victory or alternatively 'actually we blew up our own stuff because...reasons'. Is there any rule against sharing that kind of stuff here or alternatively; or to put the question another way, is this something our Groghead posters would like to see now and again (because I'd be happy to share some of them).

We try to focus the conversation on matters of strategic and tactical relevance. That is to say, we do not allow political discussion for the time being.

That being said, I don't think there is anyone here who would object to seeing how the Russian media is spinning the war, particularly as it pertains to the strategic situation on the battlefield. Starfury has definitely posted some twitter clips of Russian media discussing the war. Most will find it amusing and I don't think there is any risk of any of our members actually buying into any of Russian propaganda like some of them seem to have done with the Western brand of propaganda, which in my view is at least equally responsible for prolonging the war in certain respects.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 31, 2023, 06:50:45 AM
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 30, 2023, 09:32:25 AMhttps://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/03/27/7158755/

How Russian Nukes in Belarus Undermine China's Xi Authority

"All nuclear powers must not deploy nuclear weapons outside their national territories," Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping signed this joint statement in Moscow. The document was supposed to confirm the comprehensive partnership of the two anti-Western states.

However, just four days after, it became clear that the agreement with Putin was worthless. Contrary to the deal with Beijing, Russia will deploy its nuclear weapons on the territory of the neighbouring state, Belarus.

Therefore, the reaction of the USA and NATO to this statement has turned out to be quite restrained.

More importantly, Putin's nuclear announcement is a slap in the face to Xi and will affect trust between China and Russia.



Looks like the meeting between Putin & Xi didn't go as well as Putin wants us to know.

Yep, all this weird stuff is just getting more weird, Here's thing from CNN about how Belarus doesn't want any hypothetical truces violated:

Lukashenko warns West against consequences of violating a hypothetical Ukraine truce
From CNN's Anna Chernova

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko called for a freezing of "hostilities" in Ukraine, and warned that Russia would have to use the full force of its military if the West were attempt to use a hypothetical pause in the war to encroach on its territory.

"It is necessary to stop hostilities and declare a truce that prohibits both sides from moving groups of troops and from transferring weapons, ammunition, manpower, and equipment, Lukashenko said in an address to the nation Friday. "All stopped, frozen."

But he warned Moscow would be obliged to use the "full power of its military-industrial complex and the army to prevent the escalation of the conflict – phosphorus ammunition, non-depleted uranium, and enriched uranium – everything must go into action if there is deception and even the slightest movement across the border of Ukraine is noticed."

Lukashenko is a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his comments come amid heightened tensions in the region, with Russia amassing troops along the Belarus-Ukraine border in recent weeks.

The United States and its allies have expressed concern over the potential for further escalation in the conflict.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 07:14:10 AM
yesterday, Lula was preaching about how Poland is about to invade Belarus...   :Loser:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 07:50:45 AM
its fucking absurd that russia will be taking over the leadership of the UN security council for a month.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 31, 2023, 07:58:45 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 07:14:10 AMyesterday, Lula was preaching about how Poland is about to invade Belarus...  :Loser:

  I think the Russians and Belarusians can see this is not really going their way and this Lula verbiage seems to suggest a couple of things -- one Poland is likely to be considering some kind of hypothetical preemptive action if
some hypothetical things happen such as Russian forces massing on the Polish border with Belarus and Two -- the Russians would really, really, really like to get some kind of ceasefire now while they still hold a lot of Ukrainian territory.
On the other hand -- hypothetically -- if there was some kind of ceasefire, the Russians would have to specify that the west not keep providing weapons, ammo, training, equipment and intel to Ukraine.  Which really makes one wonder who Lula intends as an audience?  Is it his supporters in Belarus who need to be ready to accept the consequences of Russian failure?  Is it Poland?  China? or even Putin (as an excuse for hypothetically not doing much in most hypothetical situations)?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 31, 2023, 08:10:01 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 07:50:45 AMits fucking absurd that russia will be taking over the leadership of the UN security council for a month.

Man I hadn't even thought of that. Hopefully that's just a pro forma post...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 31, 2023, 08:11:03 AM
^Me neither, that is insane and if it does happen just shows how removed from reality the UN is in 2023.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: greengiant on March 31, 2023, 08:13:05 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 06:22:09 AM
Quote from: greengiant on March 31, 2023, 04:54:44 AMOne thing I don't see getting much attention in this thread is the hilarious (and sad) batsh*t insane propaganda Russian news spews out on a daily basis. On another forum I'm a member of, there are four or five threads dedicated to this war, each with their own unique focus with one of them being 'sh*t Russia says'. We've got a few anti-war Russian members who are very helpful in sharing clips from Russian media.

A typical example of your daily Russian media blurb is how they try spin every loss they've had thus far into some sort of victory or alternatively 'actually we blew up our own stuff because...reasons'. Is there any rule against sharing that kind of stuff here or alternatively; or to put the question another way, is this something our Groghead posters would like to see now and again (because I'd be happy to share some of them).

We try to focus the conversation on matters of strategic and tactical relevance. That is to say, we do not allow political discussion for the time being.

That being said, I don't think there is anyone here who would object to seeing how the Russian media is spinning the war, particularly as it pertains to the strategic situation on the battlefield. Starfury has definitely posted some twitter clips of Russian media discussing the war. Most will find it amusing and I don't think there is any risk of any of our members actually buying into any of Russian propaganda like some of them seem to have done with the Western brand of propaganda, which in my view is at least equally responsible for prolonging the war in certain respects.

Understood, thanks for the prompt response Jarhead  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 31, 2023, 08:19:10 AM
An inspiring story, and a reminder that not everything amounts to Uks beating up on the Orcs.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/teen-beauty-lost-leg-but-escaped-death-by-seconds-on-ukraine-front/ar-AA19hQcC?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=c5f9e686fc59431f987d019a728ae4e3&ei=34

(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA19hQcm.img?w=634&h=696&m=6&x=280&y=95&s=50&d=50)

You'll have to read the article for what happened with Pulya the security cat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 31, 2023, 08:22:09 AM
Re BT-7... well, yep, I didn't notice the wheels were actually "wheels" under the (probably photoshopped) Reakt!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 08:24:21 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 31, 2023, 08:11:03 AM^Me neither, that is insane and if it does happen just shows how removed from reality the UN is in 2023.

This doesn't surprise me at all. Par for the UN course. This is the same UN that elected Iran onto the commission on Women's Rights and China onto the Consultative Group of the United Nations Humans Rights Council.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 31, 2023, 08:44:54 AM
 :crazy2: Nucking futz ^
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 08:58:03 AM
Quote-- one Poland is likely to be considering some kind of hypothetical preemptive action

Poland just finished a pretty damn solid border fence with belarus.  its not stopping an invasion, but its a clear indication of the Poles telling them to stay the fuck out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 31, 2023, 09:53:04 AM
Beyond that fence I would be surprised, even in 2023, if Poland pre-emptively struck anywhere. But what do I know, I still can't fully believe that Russia invaded Ukraine. Or a dozen other huge events of the last 30+ years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 31, 2023, 09:55:25 AM
Time for some Fortified Sectors and modern Slavic Security Zones!  :RockOn:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 31, 2023, 10:23:45 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 08:24:21 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 31, 2023, 08:11:03 AM^Me neither, that is insane and if it does happen just shows how removed from reality the UN is in 2023.

This doesn't surprise me at all. Par for the UN course. This is the same UN that elected Iran onto the commission on Women's Rights and China onto the Consultative Group of the United Nations Humans Rights Council.
The UN security council is simply following it's rules of order.  Way to jump to conclusions.
"Accordingly, under rule 18 of the Security Council's provisional rules of procedure, the presidency of the Council is held in turn by the members of the Council in English alphabetical order for a one-calendar-month period"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 10:33:33 AM
russias right to be on the council or in the UN is another ball of bullshit to begin with.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 10:37:41 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 31, 2023, 10:23:45 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 08:24:21 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 31, 2023, 08:11:03 AM^Me neither, that is insane and if it does happen just shows how removed from reality the UN is in 2023.

This doesn't surprise me at all. Par for the UN course. This is the same UN that elected Iran onto the commission on Women's Rights and China onto the Consultative Group of the United Nations Humans Rights Council.
The UN security council is simply following it's rules of order.  Way to jump to conclusions.
"Accordingly, under rule 18 of the Security Council's provisional rules of procedure, the presidency of the Council is held in turn by the members of the Council in English alphabetical order for a one-calendar-month period"

I am not jumping to any conclusion and I'm not even sure what you're talking about. Iran's appointment to the Women's Rights commission was an election by vote conducted through secret ballot and China's appointment to the Human Right's Council was also accomplished by election. So what conclusion am I jumping to and why would you even defend any organization who would have rules that would result in such preposterous outcomes?  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 31, 2023, 11:13:53 AM
I don't think it's those rules, per se, that resulted in such preposterous outcomes. It's the people who voted in accordance with those rules, who created those outcomes.

The security council rollover is of course a legacy from when the Soviet Union was included on the Council for the sake of peace after WW2: not meant to be a moral exemplar in the first place. I don't know what it would take for Russia, as the USSR's successor state, to be removed from the Security Council per se.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 31, 2023, 11:19:37 AM
^'Starting a war' is a good place to begin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 31, 2023, 11:20:28 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 31, 2023, 11:13:53 AMI don't think it's those rules, per se, that resulted in such preposterous outcomes. It's the people who voted in accordance with those rules, who created those outcomes.

The security council rollover is of course a legacy from when the Soviet Union was included on the Council for the sake of peace after WW2: not meant to be a moral exemplar in the first place. I don't know what it would take for Russia, as the USSR's successor state, to be removed from the Security Council per se.

I think it would take a completely new UN charter.  On the other hand, while the UN is pretty much a relic
of the 1940s, there are other international organizations that can try to put a damper on whatever Russia thinks it is doing.  Even the UN isn't helping Russia actively as far as I know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 11:22:45 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 31, 2023, 11:13:53 AMI don't think it's those rules, per se, that resulted in such preposterous outcomes. It's the people who voted in accordance with those rules, who created those outcomes.

The security council rollover is of course a legacy from when the Soviet Union was included on the Council for the sake of peace after WW2: not meant to be a moral exemplar in the first place. I don't know what it would take for Russia, as the USSR's successor state, to be removed from the Security Council per se.

It is complicated. This should have been addressed when the Soviet Union collapsed and Boris Yeltsin by letter advised the UN that Russia would be taking over the Soviet Union's seat on the security council. Nobody objected and they should have. As it is presently, the Charter can only be amended by 2/3 vote of the general assembly and all permanent members of the security council. There is a rule that permits votes on "procedural matters" that does not require unanimous consent of the permanent security council, but it is arguable whether the removal of a member would be considered "procedural" in nature.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 31, 2023, 11:44:42 AM
I would say let the Russkies head the council and everyone present, 'moon' them everytime there's a meeting. And put the Ukrainians in charge of serving their refreshments. The UN ceased to make sense years back and we ought to tell them to get outta NYC and take their act to Geneva. Or Tehran. They're not worth the money we send them until they clean-up their act which should've been done about 4 Presidents ago.

I think the whole region is waiting to see what happens in the Spring. Depending on that you may see many realignments politically pro/anti Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 31, 2023, 12:26:03 PM
Another substack by Lawrence Freedman has been out for a few days, on China-Russia relations ("Loud thunder, but few raindrops"), Bakhmut, the coming (?) Ukrainian offensive, and Putin's options.

Well worth a read, again.


https://samf.substack.com/p/still-bakhmut

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 04:19:55 PM
pretty sure this is part two of a trench fight video I posted last week.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1641848860996771841
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 31, 2023, 05:50:30 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 06:22:09 AMThat being said, I don't think there is anyone here who would object to seeing how the Russian media is spinning the war, particularly as it pertains to the strategic situation on the battlefield. Starfury has definitely posted some twitter clips of Russian media discussing the war. Most will find it amusing and I don't think there is any risk of any of our members actually buying into any of Russian propaganda like some of them seem to have done with the Western brand of propaganda, which in my view is at least equally responsible for prolonging the war in certain respects.

I probably should just walk away, but let me pick up this bone and chew on it a little.

1) I grant you that both sides are doing their best to change hearts and minds, using methods both authentic and devious.  Are you asserting some kind of moral equivalence between the pro-Russian propaganda targeting its own people and the pro-Ukraine propaganda largely targeting Westerners?

2) Could you elaborate why you think Western propaganda is responsible for prolonging the war? 

I can imagine answers to these questions above, but you're a very logical guy.  Star, please don't start yelling at him and calling him names if he responds.  I'm trying to understand a side of the argument that I don't yet understand.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 06:52:33 PM
oh Id like to hear his thoughts on this as well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 09:54:32 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 31, 2023, 05:50:30 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 06:22:09 AMThat being said, I don't think there is anyone here who would object to seeing how the Russian media is spinning the war, particularly as it pertains to the strategic situation on the battlefield. Starfury has definitely posted some twitter clips of Russian media discussing the war. Most will find it amusing and I don't think there is any risk of any of our members actually buying into any of Russian propaganda like some of them seem to have done with the Western brand of propaganda, which in my view is at least equally responsible for prolonging the war in certain respects.

I probably should just walk away, but let me pick up this bone and chew on it a little.

1) I grant you that both sides are doing their best to change hearts and minds, using methods both authentic and devious.  Are you asserting some kind of moral equivalence between the pro-Russian propaganda targeting its own people and the pro-Ukraine propaganda largely targeting Westerners?

2) Could you elaborate why you think Western propaganda is responsible for prolonging the war? 

I can imagine answers to these questions above, but you're a very logical guy.  Star, please don't start yelling at him and calling him names if he responds.  I'm trying to understand a side of the argument that I don't yet understand.


No reason to walk away. Your questions are genuine, reasonable and asked with interest in the spirit of open dialogue and discussion. That is refreshing and I am happy to indulge.

No. I am not asserting a moral equivalence. As I have said several times, and putting the issue of NATO expansion aside, nobody can make a credible argument that Russia's invasion is anything but entirely illegal and that the Russian military and Putin haven't committed egregious crimes in flagrant violation of international law.

However, while Russian propaganda is aimed at justifying its blatant acts of aggression, Western propaganda is substantially aimed at maintaining public support for the war not to ensure the freedom of the Ukrainian people, but rather to wage a proxy war that destabilizes Russia while benefiting the military industrial complex and multi-trillion dollar corporations that have extremely close ties to government.

Adam Schiff said before Congress, and I quote, "the United States aides Ukraine and her people so we can fight Russia over there so we don't have to fight Russia over here..."

In war, it is said, the truth is the first casualty.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 10:21:04 PM
QuoteWestern propaganda is substantially aimed at maintaining public support for the war not to ensure the freedom of the Ukrainian people, but rather to wage a proxy war that destabilizes Russia while benefiting the military industrial complex and multi-trillion dollar corporations that have extremely close ties to government.

my initial takeaway is that we both consume very different forms of media.  the vast majority of things I see are very much about ensuring Ukrainian freedoms and restoring as much territory as possible.  these would be whatever format of media across European and American platforms predominantly. 
Im not going to even try and spin some bullshit about how this doesnt benefit the "complex".  it 100% does and Im ok with that because it benefits the wests defenses as a whole.  its not just Raytheon or Boeing, its BAE and Saab and scores of other companies.  I think thats a net good thing.
Im also fine with finishing russia without an American life being lost.  Im a Cold War kid, I dont like them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 10:32:50 PM
I consume media that questions the narrative. Media that is actually and simply just in search of the truth, be it good or bad. Not Fox News. Not pro-Russian propaganda. I suggest if all the media you consume is "very much about ensuring Ukrainian freedoms..." then you're only consuming media that is telling half-truths and you should probably broaden your horizons.

I grew up during the Cold War hating Russians too...you do realize that the hatred for Russians is solely due to the same propaganda machine that I'm questioning and criticizing today.

And the propaganda that benefits war profiteers is not a net good thing, particularly because it is being done for the benefit of the very few at substantially great risk to the very many. It mystifies me that you're prepared to buy into it all hook, line and sinker without any inkling urging you to dig deeper.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 11:02:01 PM
I have and continue to view media that I dont agree with.  I am the one thats posted those russian media clips after all.  its also not about me digging deeper to find new information or that Im buying something hook like and sinker.  I pay attention to all of this information and this is a stance I choose to take on this matter.  simple as that.  you have your views for the same reason. 
back onto the topic at hand.  Ive found the media that Ukraine puts out is far more positive and strikes at notes that are western for lack of a better term.  the recovering wounded clips are pretty strong, to give an example.
another effective use of media has been showing moral footage of Ukrainian soldiers.  theres almost nothing
comparable coming out of russian media.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on March 31, 2023, 11:09:26 PM
If keeping Ukraine free is a benefit to the whole world, then why don't Weapons Manufactures sell defensive systems at cost to the Ukrainians or even donate them for free? The fact that great profits are generated by providing a country the means to defend their people, means those making the profits have a vested interest in prolonging the conflict. That can't be ignored when trying to find an end to the fighting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 11:50:30 PM
I think that a great many of the systems given to the Ukraine are in fact donated.  the catch it the cost of replacing those stock for the donating country.  that costs money and is a big part of what JH is talking about.
theres also the very real cost of bringing donated kit out of storage and making it ready for the field.
as an example, Spains giving around 100 Leo 1a5s to Ukraine but bringing them out of storage isnt cheap.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 01, 2023, 12:37:23 AM
That's a fair analysis, JarHead.  I suspect that you and Star even agree on the basic conclusions.  You just weight different aspects of those conclusions differently.

The military-industrial complex was never a fabrication of the left (as many of you probably know, the term was coined by Dwight D. Eisenhower in his last speech as President).  I do wish that the treatment of the Ukraine War had a little more emphasis on the human cost of it and a little less HIMARS porn.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2023, 12:52:54 AM
there are weapon systems that the west could have given the Ukraine months and months ago that would actually shorten this war.  the collective west chose to short walk everything because russia is a nuclear power.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2023, 01:51:21 AM
the next battlefield?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FskFC1zWAAIJ1k7?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on April 01, 2023, 03:41:05 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 31, 2023, 04:19:55 PMpretty sure this is part two of a trench fight video I posted last week.

Did they film a war crime ?  At the 8.30 mark you can see them waving a white flag but the firing continues.


Also : don't these tanks have machine guns ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2023, 08:28:26 AM
Ive rewatched that section over and over and I dont see any white flags at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 01, 2023, 08:38:11 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2023, 08:28:26 AMIve rewatched that section over and over and I dont see any white flags at all.

I see what Pete is referring to though. However, it appears to be a piece of torn cloth or plastic of some kind. Debris that  was blown onto a tree adjoining the trench by the concussion of the tank round blasts. It was clearly stuck against the tree and outside of the trench, not being waived by any of the infantry.

It is really amazing how much protection was afforded to the entrenched infantry. At some point, you think they would have realized though that their best and only chance of survival was to exfil and either swarm over the tank, or just scatter across the field.

Its amazing piece of footage. I caught it on Funker.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2023, 12:45:39 PM
possible new turret toss champion!   :Party:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1642191759437340675
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on April 01, 2023, 01:47:15 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 09:54:32 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 31, 2023, 05:50:30 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 31, 2023, 06:22:09 AMThat being said, I don't think there is anyone here who would object to seeing how the Russian media is spinning the war, particularly as it pertains to the strategic situation on the battlefield. Starfury has definitely posted some twitter clips of Russian media discussing the war. Most will find it amusing and I don't think there is any risk of any of our members actually buying into any of Russian propaganda like some of them seem to have done with the Western brand of propaganda, which in my view is at least equally responsible for prolonging the war in certain respects.

I probably should just walk away, but let me pick up this bone and chew on it a little.

1) I grant you that both sides are doing their best to change hearts and minds, using methods both authentic and devious.  Are you asserting some kind of moral equivalence between the pro-Russian propaganda targeting its own people and the pro-Ukraine propaganda largely targeting Westerners?

2) Could you elaborate why you think Western propaganda is responsible for prolonging the war? 

I can imagine answers to these questions above, but you're a very logical guy.  Star, please don't start yelling at him and calling him names if he responds.  I'm trying to understand a side of the argument that I don't yet understand.


No reason to walk away. Your questions are genuine, reasonable and asked with interest in the spirit of open dialogue and discussion. That is refreshing and I am happy to indulge.

No. I am not asserting a moral equivalence. As I have said several times, and putting the issue of NATO expansion aside, nobody can make a credible argument that Russia's invasion is anything but entirely illegal and that the Russian military and Putin haven't committed egregious crimes in flagrant violation of international law.

However, while Russian propaganda is aimed at justifying its blatant acts of aggression, Western propaganda is substantially aimed at maintaining public support for the war not to ensure the freedom of the Ukrainian people, but rather to wage a proxy war that destabilizes Russia while benefiting the military industrial complex and multi-trillion dollar corporations that have extremely close ties to government.

Adam Schiff said before Congress, and I quote, "the United States aides Ukraine and her people so we can fight Russia over there so we don't have to fight Russia over here..."

In war, it is said, the truth is the first casualty.

Glad you guys hashed this out.  And I'd agree with you JH that we should be fearful of our military industrial complex running wild.  I'm pretty sure that's why Afghanistan went on for 20 years with no end in sight.

I do think Ukraine is far more complex though.  It does suck that defense corporations get rich off war, but as you can see they put out a good product and the Ukrainians are screaming for more of it.

What would be the alternative though, we put our foot down on the defense industry and end our support for Ukraine siting "we're only making ratheon execs rich here".  Meanwhile Putin is jumping for joy as Ukraine's supply of weapons runs out and he can now capture all of Ukraine.

This is just one of those situations where supporting Ukraine and enriching our defense industry aligned even though we don't like the idea of enriching our defense industry.

I'd agree with star, we would have pressed harder with support early on.  The Ukrainians should already be flying Jsow laden f16s and launching ATACM himars, the spring offensive would be a war winning final offensive.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 01, 2023, 02:13:24 PM
Not to get too far off-thread, but one reason Afghanistan went on for 20ish years with no end in sight, was because we couldn't stabilize the government enough to survive our departure. The Mil-Ind-Plex no doubt profited from that (as did all its employees, and the employees of companies supporting it, down to the McDonald's on the corner), but I would need to see some evidence that they actively hampered that stability (or created/sustained the instability) in order to keep producing product for their profits. Alternately, I'd want evidence that we could have left at any time prior to when we did without a Afghan collapse relatively soon afterward. Even Trump's phased withdrawal plan didn't leave behind a good chance of the government continuing, iirc -- it would just have been cleaner and more people would have migrated out more safely.

This could become relevant someday if Ukraine ends up depending on NATO force for continued survival without cleaning up its own act better.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on April 01, 2023, 02:27:01 PM
Yeah I wouldn't say the mil industrial complex sabotaged it, but it definitely benefited and I'm sure those lobbyists did their work to keep the mission going.

But yes the afghan government was never going to succeed with out including the tribal pastunes.  In hind site, they should have made a hybrid tribal government that represented all their people, not just corrupt karzi.  It's like Vietnam, we were just backing the wrong dog in the fight. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 01, 2023, 03:56:18 PM
Yup.  That's why nation-building is so hard.  Karzai was the leader of the most powerful faction fighting the Talibs, but he was more interested in serving his faction (and himself) than he was in fighting the Taliban.

From an expense standpoint, we've still only spent a fraction in Ukraine of what we spent each year in Iraq and Afghanistan.  It's my understanding that, when we talk about the $$ value of equipment sent out to Ukraine, we're generally talking about the purchase cost of equipment we were likely throwing out in another 10 years anyway, as opposed to the actual expense we'll incur getting the stuff ready for combat and shipped overseas.

We'll obviously have to replace a lot of that inventory, but we were going to have to do so sooner or later anyways, and we will be replacing it with more modern stuff. 

On the topic of jets, I heard Ward Carroll and Justin Bronk discussing the topic of Western fighters a few months ago, and Bronk suggested that, in the case of F-16s, the combat juice wouldn't be worth the logistical squeeze.  The F-16 is a fine plane, he said, and better than much of what the Russians are flying, but it's not a good fit for what the Ukrainians need right now. 

It has a big logistical tail (easy for the Russians to spot and target) and requires a long, very clear runway (hard for the Ukrainians to find these days).  It's also not particularly well-suited to the mission required right now, which is primarily an anti-air mission operating from a low-altitude (the F-16 is a very capable air superiority platform, he says, but it's really designed to be firing at opponents from 20,000 feet).  Bronk suggested--and Carroll agreed--that the Swedish JAS-39 Grypen is a much better fit and specifically designed for the situation that the Ukrainians find themselves in today.

I can dig up that thread if anybody's interested.  I think it was probably even posted on here 40 or 50 pages ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 01, 2023, 04:00:04 PM
On the topic of missteps by the West, there are a number of folks saying that the Ukrainians didn't really have the logistical capabilities to support some of the fancier weapons systems (including NATO MBTs) much sooner.  Nobody is disputing that Ukraine really would have benefitted from already getting another quarter-million artillery shells right now.

All the NATO countries are relying on peacetime procurement protocols, which rely on clear market signals (e.g., signed contracts and multi-year spending commitments) before private actors start investing heavily in bringing additional factories online.  While that's worked fine for the weapons manufacturers, it hasn't worked well for the Ukrainians who need the weapons sooner.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 01, 2023, 04:16:12 PM
Unf*ckingbelievable  :buck2:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65146557
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2023, 05:46:34 PM
its 30 days, what could go wrong.
Im also a big fan of the Ukraine eventually getting Grippens.  fantastic platform!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2023, 10:38:41 PM
the beaver saga continues.
now with the name Sigourney Beaver.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1642322005520269312
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2023, 10:43:19 PM
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2023, 11:16:24 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsrP1cXaUAEXnsT?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 02, 2023, 09:45:58 AM
Mrs Star: If I catch you one more time googling internet for beaver pictures... :tickedoff:  [leaves room, smoldering]

Star:

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 01, 2023, 11:16:24 PM(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsrP1cXaUAEXnsT?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 02, 2023, 02:37:20 PM
a bad day to take gift is russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 02, 2023, 03:03:30 PM
It hadn't occurred to me before that Reactive Armor may be no good against even a small kaiju...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 03, 2023, 05:02:07 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 02, 2023, 03:03:30 PMIt hadn't occurred to me before that Reactive Armor may be no good against even a small kaiju...

NAFO Beaver. You pronounced this nonsense, not me. Also, NAFO Beaver is non-negotiable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 03, 2023, 07:23:28 AM
.....North Atlantic Fuzzy Organization?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 03, 2023, 07:44:36 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 03, 2023, 07:23:28 AM.....North Atlantic Fuzzy Organization?

Just in case you're not (yet) familiar with the North Atlantic Fellas Organization, now you are (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAFO_(group)). NAFO expansion is, indeed, non-negotiable.

(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0568/9527/5101/products/kiss-cut-stickers-4x4-default-62b5c93cd8203_1200x1200.jpg?v=1656081097)

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSAa6yMfxSyn_LHkjRhBHVEOg2TZY3NEneFXQ&usqp=CAU)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 03, 2023, 08:16:33 AM
Oh, now that you mention it, I have heard of that occasionally in passing! I didn't quite know what I was hearing, but I understood the context to be comic.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 03, 2023, 09:01:22 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 03, 2023, 08:16:33 AMOh, now that you mention it, I have heard of that occasionally in passing! I didn't quite know what I was hearing, but I understood the context to be comic.

Yes, context is often comic, as bullies hate to be ridiculed, but as the Wiki article quite well describes NAFO, it is about information warfare against Russian disinformation and propaganda on one hand, and raising funds to support Ukraine on the other hand.

"I need ammunition, not a ride", president Z said, allegedly at least. So why not. Saint Javelin webstore has received quite a few of my hard earned dollars for some witty stickers and a most cool NAFO beanie sent my way. Recommended.

That said, I mostly choose to support Ukraine via UNICEF and a monthly donation there, a more adult and effective way to do it I am sure.

But, that-said part 2, a Press Z quote as above, as a sticker on one's laptop, is not a bad thing either :Nerd:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 03, 2023, 11:02:43 AM
Too many new things to keep up with.   :headscratch:  I'll be in my cave if you need me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 03, 2023, 12:57:34 PM
Ah, but what if the NAFO Beaver's name was Boo!  :Nerd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 03, 2023, 02:36:09 PM
Then he would be a Miniature, Giant Space Hamster and just eat the Russian tanks. THAT I would pay to see.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 03, 2023, 07:34:10 PM
its now official.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FszWuMrXwAE0rdS?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 03, 2023, 08:49:51 PM
so theres a part three of the video where UkAF tanks assault a trench line.
and by assault I mean they roll right up and bury everyone in it and some people get stuck in the tracks.
which is why Im not posting it but I did enjoy watching it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 03, 2023, 09:45:16 PM
I can't wait to see the Beaver Counter when this war gets wargamed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 03, 2023, 09:55:21 PM
is that like the pasta rule?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 04, 2023, 03:45:50 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 03, 2023, 09:45:16 PMI can't wait to see the Beaver Counter when this war gets wargamed.

Two Beaver Troops and one Raccoon Troop, attacking from opposite hex sides, easily overcome a ruZZian Mech Bn, even when entrenched  :knuppel2: 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 04, 2023, 11:32:07 AM
There is a reason why the beaver is a national emblem of Canada.

If the AFU were truly serious though they could have lured it away with a goodly amount of poutine laced with maple syrup.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 04, 2023, 11:56:31 AM
I don't think Ukrainian Beavers go for lures. I think they only go for...THE THROAT! Or points lower.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 04, 2023, 12:48:35 PM
Wait until the Ukrainian beavers start going after the Russian lumber industry!  Between that and dropping trees in roads, they'll have vulnerable segments of the Russian economy on its knees by Fall at the latest. 

The Russians may have been preparing for sanctions from abroad for decades, but nobody expects the UBIB (Ukrainian Beaver Infiltration Brigade)!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on April 04, 2023, 09:25:08 PM
Ukrainian beavers make the best assault engineers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on April 04, 2023, 09:34:44 PM
There are nearly three pages now of no discussion other than Ukrainian beavers.  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 04, 2023, 09:38:14 PM
And they work for wood shavings.  :wink:  Beavers are always distracting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 04, 2023, 09:47:43 PM
there really hasn't been much going on to post about.  the mud is deep as hell and both sides are stuck.  Bhakmut is still a stalemate and that's about it. 
Finland joined NATO today.   :Party:
May is going to be a very interesting month.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 04, 2023, 10:26:57 PM
Twice as much border for NATO now! -- also lots of beavers in Finland.

(Though to be fair, Russia no doubt has more beavers than all the rest of the world put together except maybe Canada.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 04, 2023, 10:31:06 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 04, 2023, 11:56:31 AM{...} Ukrainian Beavers go for {...} points lower.  :HideEyes:

(https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExOTc2NWQ1ZWZkYjdmYjZlODY1ZTViNTljM2I2NTFjM2QzYTgxMjcxOCZjdD1n/WRuBiZKB6xgsS9DrFA/giphy.gif)

Quote from: Sir Slash on April 04, 2023, 09:38:14 PMBeavers are always distracting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 05, 2023, 07:57:13 AM
I'm sure Putin will somehow blame the West for NATO enlargement and the massive backfiring of his grand scheme.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 05, 2023, 10:26:27 AM
No doubt. It sounds like Nazi Drug Addicts are spreading all around him now. He probably can't even trust his horse anymore. Poor Vlad.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 05, 2023, 10:38:34 AM
Ukrainian mine clearing line charge used to clear vatniks.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1643375640585056256
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 05, 2023, 10:53:57 AM
Wagner: Hey Vlad, you ready to sneak out tonight and lay some mines?
Wagner2: Sure am, Comrade! I've got them all ready to go right he---- wait, do you hear an odd whistling sound?
Wagner1: look at that flaming line coming in! That's a Meteorit!
Wagner2: don't be silly, the Uks don't have any UR-77 MeteoMYGOD AAAHHHH RUNNN!!


(Ukraine captured 12 of these armored tracked units, donated by fleeing Russians. But this footage might be the Orks using it at Mauripol.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 05, 2023, 05:04:08 PM
 :ROFL:

"China does not recognize Crimea as Russian, like other territories of Ukraine "included" in the Russian Federation" - Chinese Ambassador to the EU
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 05, 2023, 08:03:40 PM
 :Dreamer:  "included"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 05, 2023, 09:50:57 PM
Interesting. What's Russia's official stance on Hong Kong I wonder?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 06, 2023, 12:02:04 AM
something Ive been paying attention to.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/04/the-united-states-has-given-ukraine-all-the-heavy-trucks-tankers-and-recovery-vehicles-the-ukrainians-need-to-breach-russian-defenses/?sh=384094ac600f
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 06, 2023, 08:24:45 AM
As you might guess, China's stance on Crimea, while favorable to Ukraine, is not altruistic: China sees Ukraine as being part of its "Silk Road" Eastern Hemisphere project, which seeks to set up transport nodes, and ultimately transport control, of all sea and land routes between China and western Europe.

Along the way, they act like mob boss money lenders, granting nations / governments ridiculous loans at ridiculous terms, ideally to governments with a proven record of mismanagement and malfeasance, so that when their targets inevitably default on payment, China simply starts taking direct control and ownership of the country starting with the transport nodes they have their eye on, but also including key strategic resource production.

This has actually contributed to China's own economic collapse, because it turns out that lending ridiculous sums for a guaranteed default in lieu of underdeveloped properties, doesn't really improve an economy!

But anyway the Crimea was part of that plan, whereas those Donbass areas were not -- so what China's saying is that they regard the Ukraine as a better hustle-target than Russia (and maybe easier to work with before Ukraine collapses). Therefore Ukraine should have the Crimea, which is what China would like to get control of in the long term, while Russia keeps the Donbass regions which China doesn't currently care about picking up later.

(I posted a video about the overall plan many pages ago, so people might remember this from that.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 06, 2023, 08:55:37 AM
Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry Building in Moscow has taken a jump out of a yacht's window or words to that effect...!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-defence-ministry-building-is-on-fire-in-centre-of-moscow/ar-AA19w5wT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=19aa31729706495795c1d2310589347f&ei=34

a "power grid emergency."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 06, 2023, 09:23:20 AM
Completely unrelated to any fire at the Defense Ministry cough!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/top-russian-oligarch-found-dead-in-cell-under-mysterious-circumstances/ss-AA19w76j?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=5559201e7a5c46b1a6f8464f9ce1e185&ei=33

Today's winner of the Russian Lottery is Igor Shkurko, deputy general director of Russian energy company Yakutskenergo.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 06, 2023, 09:42:13 AM
The ongoing destruction of Russia's 331st Guards Parachute Regiment, from the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65179074
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 06, 2023, 10:02:42 AM
I will never not be amused by the historical background of Russian parachute units being designated as "Guards".  :cool:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 06, 2023, 10:07:25 AM
MORE careless cigarette smoking at the Defense Ministry?  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 06, 2023, 10:08:45 AM
The Russian 331st is certainly not amused by our amusement.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 06, 2023, 10:12:20 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 06, 2023, 08:24:45 AMAs you might guess, China's stance on Crimea, while favorable to Ukraine, is not altruistic: China sees Ukraine as being part of its "Silk Road" Eastern Hemisphere project, which seeks to set up transport nodes, and ultimately transport control, of all sea and land routes between China and western Europe.

Along the way, they act like mob boss money lenders, granting nations / governments ridiculous loans at ridiculous terms, ideally to governments with a proven record of mismanagement and malfeasance, so that when their targets inevitably default on payment, China simply starts taking direct control and ownership of the country starting with the transport nodes they have their eye on, but also including key strategic resource production.

How are they different from the World Bank? Serious question.

I think you make a few good points, but you need to view these Chinese behaviours with larger context/framing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 06, 2023, 12:17:11 PM
Okay, how is the World Bank planning to take control of half a total hemisphere's worth of transport nodes and key resource production areas for supplying its population and especially armies on the way to taking direct control and ownership of the nations it's bankrupting?

I'm admittedly VERY suspicious, incurably so probably, of the United Nations (especially) and similar one-world-government organization attempts; but to borrow Stalin's famous quip, how many divisions does the World Bank itself have?

If you answer they have indirect access to and influence on a tithe of military power through the UN, and of various rogue governments the WB hocs up, my reply will be: China directly controls a lot more force. It may be crappy force, but it's still better than the rogue nations they're financially tearing apart.

If you answer that the UN are the ones trying the same thing as China, then once again they don't (yet!) have direct control of much force (although some of it is qualitatively better than China's). But then the UN is the problematic tyranny competing with China; the WB is only a tool. Also, is the UN succeeding any better than China at economically ruining and thus taking control of other governments through taking direct control of their logistic powers (at first) without destroying itself in the process? (Probably!  :evil: )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 06, 2023, 12:29:53 PM
Africa.
Yes the WB lacks troops, but the effect is the same. The presence of troops on the ground to defend interests isn't as big a thing as you may think it is. Troops in Congo do nothing to mute the Congolese governments response when China is caught cheating in under-reporting copper ore mined. Roads get closed until the problem is dealt with.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on April 06, 2023, 12:50:30 PM
Cylon hybrid in the bathtub random rambling time!

(https://media.battlestarwiki.org/w/images/3/3b/HybridChick.jpg)

Jason brings up a good point.  The WB along with the WEF and UN are all components of a one world government.  The kings of the east, aka China, don't want to be subservient so war between east and west is inevitable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 06, 2023, 12:55:54 PM
Sorry I brought this up.....      :idiot2:


Meanwhile here's a what if? Is this a delayed April Fool?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/prior-to-the-war-in-ukraine-putin-was-planning-to-attack-japan-per-leaked-documents/ss-AA14MbL1?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=5873b9b0baa74f89b16a49e71e129841&ei=20#image=1 (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/prior-to-the-war-in-ukraine-putin-was-planning-to-attack-japan-per-leaked-documents/ss-AA14MbL1?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=5873b9b0baa74f89b16a49e71e129841&ei=20#image=1)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 06, 2023, 03:33:53 PM
Very hard to buy. My money'd be on the Samurai.  :ninja1:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 06, 2023, 03:52:57 PM
Again, 'Jesus Christ Russia.'

That is really hard to believe, but if it happened, Japan would have smacked down Russia so hard that Ukraine would have felt it anyway.

Russia clearly hasn't learned anything since 1905.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 06, 2023, 04:12:32 PM
I wouldn't put too much stock in that story IRT Russia going to war with Japan. The Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, Article 5 comits the US to defending Japan if it is attacked by a third party.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 06, 2023, 04:24:29 PM
^Very NATO-like. SEATO-like...even  :magnify:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 06, 2023, 09:38:39 PM
Russia should pick-on someone their own size. Like Detroit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 06, 2023, 10:17:59 PM
Relevant to China's (rather floundering) Silk Road project, and its relation to Russian claims on and around the Black Sea: China and Russia are part of a group with the (notably 'English') nickname of BRICS, which is supposed to represent a team-up of third-world "emerging" economies in order to create an economic super-power -- the team being Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

Quote from: Sir Slash on April 06, 2023, 09:38:39 PMRussia should pick-on someone their own size. Like Detroit.

Slash's quip is also relevant!  :grin:  Russia's economy back in, let's say, January of 2022 was on par with that of Florida. Now, having been gutted by their own invasion of Ukraine, they might really be more like Detroit! (And with news of revolutionary unrest popping up today, maybe more literally like Detroit soon...) China should be an awesome economic power on paper, but their economy has been imploding and self-destructing even without COVID.

So they've agreed to team up with truly emerging-world economic powers, which sounds at first kind of hilariously sad: China and Russia now rank themselves with emergent third-world economic powers! Whatever your opinion might otherwise be of India or Brazil or South Africa, they do at least arguably represent growing economic power, not powers which have constantly kept trying to bray about their awesome world-beating strength and now have to sit in the fuvela...

("...on the lips would be fine." -- Chevy Chase, as one of The Three Amigos)

...{cough} hoping that these other powers will save them if they all team up together!

But then comes the kicker. They've announced plans to set up a new currency shared among themselves, backed by hard assets like gold, rare-earth minerals, and/or land.

Land, huh. Reeeeaaallly... Even the other two things could be considered a part of China's Silk Road strategy. But land? Nations trying to call other nations off the American dollar standard swirling down the drain, by the value of a currency backed by real estate rights??

China and Russia, especially China, mean to hustle themselves some land expansion DIRECTLY.

This, combined with China's signal about what amounts to staking a sphere of interest in the Crimea via Ukraine, instead of Russia, could actually signal Russia's coming agreement to give up on Ukraine AND on ceding Crimea, stopping the war! -- because Russia desperately needs a way to gain land control (and all the people-control which comes with that), without fighting a war anymore. That's true for China, too, pre-emptively looking to get out of kicking off (a hopefully conventional) WW3 to soft-sell their unavoidable economic failure to their own people.

In strategy game terms, they've decided to go hard on the strategy of buying up provinces in Field of Glory Empires rather than conquering them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 07, 2023, 07:46:21 AM
whoa  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on April 07, 2023, 08:08:47 AM
Operation Mincemeat Redux? Minus the dead bloke.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/documents-detailing-secret-u-s-ukraine-war-plan-against-russia-leaked-on-social-media/ar-AA19z1VB?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1d50f601ceac4c418c0ee3e35bbc5cef&ei=26 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/documents-detailing-secret-u-s-ukraine-war-plan-against-russia-leaked-on-social-media/ar-AA19z1VB?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1d50f601ceac4c418c0ee3e35bbc5cef&ei=26)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 09:11:48 AM
according to Blinken, Sweden will join NATO on July 11.   :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 11:20:17 AM
the ruble is collapsing like a porn stars butthole.   :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 11:21:34 AM
I know, eloquent as ever.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 11:49:33 AM
 :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1644231935667978242
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 07, 2023, 01:24:01 PM
^Even before this war, the Ukrainians were close to last on my list of people I would like to piss off. Just past the Japanese.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 01:30:54 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fs45PE7XgAMmTrW?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 07, 2023, 02:11:37 PM
I'm sure parents all over Finland are proud for their kids to go outside and see that as representative of their nation's commitment to Peace and Freedom.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 02:20:22 PM
the average age in Finland is just shy of 43 years old and a far cry from the demographic found along Floriduhs southwestern coast.   :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 04:24:53 PM
its been forever........

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1644436075526463488

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtIvB9pXsAI8LTT?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 05:16:37 PM
pretty much the same as Arizonas post.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-says-it-is-reviewing-social-media-posts-that-purport-to-reveal-classified-documents-on-ukraine-4d7524f?st=6pqp6yo6qq3v9cs&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 08:02:48 PM
https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-money-has-the-us-given-ukraine-since-russias-invasion/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Paid&utm_campaign=General&utm_content=OneYearUkraine_Desktop_&twclid=235a74d6ager6iwz7d1tiznmeo
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 08:43:42 PM
based on the "leaked" information today.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtJsI4BX0AAURYe?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 08, 2023, 12:28:04 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 07, 2023, 02:11:37 PMI'm sure parents all over Finland are proud for their kids to go outside and see that as representative of their nation's commitment to Peace and Freedom.

That picture is from last winter, fresh after the invasion, from a cross-country World Cup event iirc. Russian athletes were not disallowed, it caused quite an upset. Including that stupid snow sculpture.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 08, 2023, 10:11:10 AM
Not surprising. Was it to advertise an, 'Event'?  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 08, 2023, 10:46:15 AM
ya it was protesting the "event" of russian trash invading a country.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 09, 2023, 05:17:55 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 07, 2023, 08:43:42 PMbased on the "leaked" information today.

If accurate, that means "battalion" in Russian = "company maybe reinforced". Or "depleted". Or "screwed".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 09, 2023, 05:21:06 PM
Meanwhile, remember my previous post where Russia and China gang up to hustle land out of unsuspecting suckers, possibly opening up a way for China to leverage Russia to cede Crimea while settling for the Donbass?

Well, Zeihan has some brief comments on developments since then -- not about the BRICS agreement, but overlapping topically in places.


The less-than-a-few-minutes version is, China hates Russia, and cannot be trusted, and is IMMEDIATELY looking for ways to screw Russia over on land control.  :twirl:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 09, 2023, 06:05:30 PM
Also, whassup with Turkey in the past week in geopolitical strategy regarding the Ukraine war:


Short version, "the Turks are Ferengis", but Ferengis with the 2nd largest NATO army on the ground in Europe.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 09, 2023, 10:39:23 PM
Yeah they could whip somebody if they could only figure-out who they're for and who they're against.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 10, 2023, 10:55:31 AM
As of two weeks ago, Zeihan was still "this is Russia's war to lose, they'll have more than half a million troops against Ukraine soon, etc.", and I still don't understand his reasoning. In the interview from then (I can post a link later today), the host immediately questioned whether the Orks had solved their logistical problem, and he instantly affirmed that all their crushing problems from logistics on down are still in place but that 'quantity is a quality' and they can still win with unsupported trash troops without destroying their own nation in the process (faster than they're already going down -- which he agrees will happen for many of the same reasons that have fatally handicapped their fight so far.)

I do not understand his persistence on this at all. It still seems to be 'well, Stalin did it, therefore...' without the slightest real comparison with Stalin's situation aside from the trivial surface similarity of sometimes-Stalin-had-to-use-trash-troops-and-also-failed-his-first-year-so-there.  :doh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 10, 2023, 11:06:53 AM
russia doesnt have the people to win.  they still need to maintain their police forces, fire stations, government agencies like the fsb.  they need to maintain some form of presence along their extemely long borders ( now even longer with Finland).  they need to maintain some level of industry from mining to manufacture.  you just cant take huge swaths of men between 18 and 45 and expect your country to survive.
now while the same would seem to hold true for the Ukraine, it isn't.  they ARE fighting for their survival so those rules change.  its important to note that Ukraine isn't suffering from brain drain of their people leaving.  they're also getting massive aid from the West.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 10, 2023, 11:07:02 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1645388649196920833
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 10, 2023, 11:15:58 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtXWPupacAILi8c?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 10, 2023, 12:29:25 PM
Interesting footage of that plane taking off on the highway.  It looks like an Su-29 to me, but if anybody else here can testify to the contrary, I'll defer to their judgment.

One of the biggest reasons that F-16s aren't practical in Ukraine is because they need long stretches of highway that are kept very clean of debris for take-off in particular.  That requirement is acceptable for NATO countries, who have always relied on being able to maintain relative air superiority over their own borders and who have been able to invest extensively in keeping their own takeoff surfaces relatively pristine. 

But it's not nearly as feasible in a place like Ukraine, where Russian projectiles fall out of the sky on a regular basis and enemy surveillance could easily pick out the sorts of days-long logistical efforts it would take to make a runway readily usable for an F-16.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 10, 2023, 01:10:39 PM
the USAF and NATO have practiced from rough fields for decades, its 100% able to operate in the environment.
the two planes in question are a Mig 29 and Su 25.  for a fun google search look up Swedish highway take offs.
one of the main ideas behind this is a minimal footprint and logistic tail and hopping around a whole lot to avoid
getting hit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 10, 2023, 01:46:44 PM
Nevermind, the topic was spelled out later.

I was going to offer a DCS multiplayer troll video where someone lands an F-16 (iirc) on a road -- not very well at first -- to catch enemy players by surprise, but it's been a few years and I can't find it now...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 10, 2023, 02:06:16 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 10, 2023, 10:55:31 AMAs of two weeks ago, Zeihan was still "this is Russia's war to lose, they'll have more than half a million troops against Ukraine soon, etc.", and I still don't understand his reasoning. In the interview from then (I can post a link later today), the host immediately questioned whether the Orks had solved their logistical problem, and he instantly affirmed that all their crushing problems from logistics on down are still in place but that 'quantity is a quality' and they can still win with unsupported trash troops without destroying their own nation in the process (faster than they're already going down -- which he agrees will happen for many of the same reasons that have fatally handicapped their fight so far.)

I do not understand his persistence on this at all. It still seems to be 'well, Stalin did it, therefore...' without the slightest real comparison with Stalin's situation aside from the trivial surface similarity of sometimes-Stalin-had-to-use-trash-troops-and-also-failed-his-first-year-so-there.  :doh:


Stalin also had years and years of trained reservists (unlike the Germans, who not only did not have that but
also tried to keep a peasant-driven agricultural economy intact while killing off millions of potential laborers so that a-- they had to bring in "slave" labor from all over and b) shut down Treblinka c) make Auschwitz a kind of terminal labor camp). 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 10, 2023, 02:15:42 PM
Stalin had a TON of advantages that Putin could only dream of: for someone who wants to be the next Red Tsar, he has been going about it really the wrong way. ;)

But then, as Zeihan would argue (I think correctly), modern Russia has a demographic time-bomb ready to implode the whole system soon: if he doesn't go now (now being early last year), he doesn't go at all. Putin's very-short-term plan wasn't necessarily a bad one. It just had to work within a week. Except it didn't, and he doesn't have the strategic backfill to do more than peck at the problem continually and hope it finally goes away.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 10, 2023, 02:18:35 PM
Meanwhile, a few more details on those cough-leaked-hack plans, Epoch Times reporting:

QuoteThe Justice Department has launched an investigation into a possible leak of secret Pentagon documents that seem to detail U.S. and NATO aid to Ukraine, as well as front-line troop and armament positions, that were shared widely on social media.

The documents, dated between Feb. 23 and March 1 and shared on platforms like Twitter and Telegram, appear to show maps and details about deliveries of weapons.

Some of the documents had markings classifying them as "Secret" and "Top Secret," with some showing what looks like locations for front-line Russian and Ukrainian military units and artillery guns.

Bellingcat analyst Aric Toler posted on Twitter images suggesting that the documents may have been altered.

In at least one case, the documents appear to have been altered to show much lower Russian troop fatality numbers than the 200,000 killed and wounded that U.S. officials have publicly estimated.

That alteration, in particular, has led to speculation that Russia could be behind the leak.

"As many of these were pictures of documents, it appears that it was a deliberate leak done by someone that wished to damage the Ukraine, U.S., and NATO efforts," Mick Mulroy, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, told ABC.

"Russia's obvious manipulation of some facts has made it more difficult to determine what is real and what is not," said Mulroy. "Something that may help somewhat limit the damage overall ironically."

Mulroy addressed the matter of the investigation into the leak, saying he expects the probe to be "very thorough in finding out how this happened and who was responsible."

Ukraine has claimed that the documents are fake and part of a Russian disinformation campaign, while the Pentagon said the matter is being looked into.

Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said in a statement Friday that the Department of Defense had made a "formal referral" to the Department of Justice (DOJ) to probe the apparent leak.

The DOJ said in a statement Friday that "We have been in communication with the Department of Defense related to this matter and have begun an investigation."

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the chief of Ukraine's presidential office, said in a statement that the posts looked like a Russian disinformation operation to sow doubts about Ukraine's predicted counter-offensive.

"The aim of secret data 'leaks' is obvious: divert attention, cast doubts & mutual suspicions, sow discord," he said in a post on Twitter. "It's an ordinary game of [Russian] secret services. To take open briefings, add fake info or certain parts of interceptions & publish them on social networks legalizing the 'leak.'"

In an earlier post on Telegram, Podolyak said Russia was "looking for any way to intercept the information initiative, to try to influence the scenario plans of Ukraine's counteroffensive.

"This has nothing to do with Ukraine's real plans," he continued, adding that "as for the real counteroffensive plans, the Russian troops will certainly be the first to get acquainted with them."

"I would assume that will happen very soon," he added.

(The rest of the article is back-context for how things got here, and signs of a coming counter-offensive by the Uks.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 10, 2023, 09:31:36 PM
The fact that anyone, regardless who's side they are on, could so easily get and publish our nation's most detailed and secret documents has to be one of the most epic failures and embarrassments in our country's history. Heads should roll at the Pentagon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 10, 2023, 10:14:18 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 10, 2023, 09:31:36 PMThe fact that anyone, regardless who's side they are on, could so easily get and publish our nation's most detailed and secret documents has to be one of the most epic failures and embarrassments in our country's history. Heads should roll at the Pentagon.

Finally have a bit of an inside tidbit that most of you will get.  Leaker's name is William Martin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 10, 2023, 11:08:36 PM
which one?
I'm still kinda skeptical about this whole thing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 11, 2023, 03:38:13 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 10, 2023, 11:08:36 PMI'm still kinda skeptical about this whole thing.

It's quite peculiar isn't it. History will tell, I guess. Reminds me of Germans losing their Fall Blau op plans in a plane crash, only for the French to diss it all: too obvious.

Certainly after the Kherson / Kharkiv stunt the Ukrainian armed forces were able to perform last fall, quite a dilemma for the Z-force to base decisions on this.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 11, 2023, 10:09:43 AM
Mike Rogers, former Head of the Intelligence Committee said on Fox this morning, he wouldn't be surprised to find out that the leaker has more info in his possession and may have been using Discord to pass it on to contacts for some time now. Also, the documents report Egypt was considering sending thousands of missiles to Russia to help their war effort. Shocking since the Egyptians get almost all their grain from Ukraine.  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 11, 2023, 11:15:54 AM
Huh, used to be a time when southern Europe got almost all their grain from Egypt!

Anyway, Egypt's theory may be that Russia is going to win anyway, and the sooner Russia wins the sooner the grain will flow again; whereas a drawn-out defeat is just going to starve everyone. Ukraine is an important breadbasket, and even more important supplier of fertilizer for the world, so nations are under a strong pressure to get this war solved a lot sooner than later.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 11, 2023, 12:05:31 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 10, 2023, 11:08:36 PMwhich one?
I'm still kinda skeptical about this whole thing.

Judging from the sheer number of paid social media trolls jumping all over this, I'd say it's a Russian misinformation campaign.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 11, 2023, 12:37:24 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 11, 2023, 10:09:43 AMAlso, the documents report Egypt was considering sending thousands of missiles to Russia to help their war effort. Shocking since the Egyptians get almost all their grain from Ukraine.  :shocked:

it was for 28000ish Grad rockets not missiles.  havent dug much into this story yet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 11, 2023, 01:50:43 PM
some articlesabout the rockets:

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/egypt-denies-report-it-planned-produce-40000-rockets-russia

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/11/africa/egypt-russia-weapons-leak-intl/index.html

https://www.foxnews.com/world/egypt-planned-covertly-send-40000-rockets-russia-report


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 11, 2023, 01:51:45 PM
the more these leaked documents get thrown around the more I think its disinformation with enough kernels of truth to be believable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 11, 2023, 02:42:52 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 11, 2023, 01:51:45 PMthe more these leaked documents get thrown around the more I think its disinformation with enough kernels of truth to be believable.
I'm agnositic on whether this is disinformation.  It very well may be, but there are some indicia of reliability (and of course, good disinformation would have that).  Here is a contrary point of view: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-leak-biopsy
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 11, 2023, 02:51:56 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on April 11, 2023, 02:42:52 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 11, 2023, 01:51:45 PMthe more these leaked documents get thrown around the more I think its disinformation with enough kernels of truth to be believable.
I'm agnositic on whether this is disinformation.  It very well may be, but there are some indicia of reliability (and of course, good disinformation would have that).  Here is a contrary point of view: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-leak-biopsy

This article put a different spin on things.  I have no idea of the accuracy, but it sounds plausible to me.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/11/pentagon-leak-traced-to-video-game-chat-group-users-arguing-over-war-in-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 11, 2023, 04:30:23 PM
I have issue with this part:

QuoteOne can only conclude that the tail is wagging the dog. The Ukrainians are able to extract material, training, and cash from the west, but there is little accountability or honest information flow in return.

there is quite a lot of accountability in what we give them and where it goes.  I was on the fence with his take but this tipped my overall opinion.  thats followed by trying to discredit the Oryx people, who have usually done a very good job at counting.  he gets called out for mistakes and his numbers have been on the low side of estimates.  the fact that the author uses armchair warlord as his source is laughable.  go scroll through his twitter profile.

and then this:
QuoteThe American military increasingly seems to be a hollowed out simulacrum of its past glories, decaying behind a façade of shiny machines and bloated budgets - a trillion dollar technobureaucratic jobs program coasting on the residual patriotic fumes of red state American boys.

 :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 11, 2023, 05:15:20 PM
a few thoughts after reading the substack and other articles about these documents.
if the leak is fake then you would want your documents to be as authentic as possible.
you would also want something of a slow burn on there release to give that authenticity credit.
like a dead guy on a Spanish beach with a briefcase handcuffed to him.
lots is being made of how low the Ukraine is on S-300s and how only russia builds them.
quite a few countries have them and I'd like to think the collective west has been buying them and
sending them to the warzone.  this also goes for the rest of the AD bleakness.
with artillery shells its much the same thing.  I see photos and articles all the time about mass
shipments of shells being delivered.  of course many are being used daily but I think a lot has
been horded for this offensive.  side note, lately Ive been seeing nothing but single warhead
GLMRS footage.  the cluster warheads would be way more useful on the attack and I'd like to think
those are being saved up as well.
then theres the issue of having these found on a minecraft server.  lots of classified stuff has
been posted to game servers before.  the ones that caught me attention were the tank specs posted
on the war thunder forum. the precedent is there and its just obscure enough that it might or might
not be real.
we'll have to wait for the books in 10 years to really know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 11, 2023, 06:34:55 PM
I can certainly understand the Ukrainians not providing good intel to the U.S. on it's own equipment or resources based on the Pentagon's poor record of keeping Classified info secret. At this point, who would trust them? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 12, 2023, 03:13:53 AM
Careful out there in the social media today, another brutal video being posted, this time Waffen ZZ beheading a POW with a knife. Sick bastards, both the orcs and those who re-post the video.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 12, 2023, 09:37:35 AM
 :Wow: Sounds like they and ISIS have a lot in common. Too bad we couldn't get them to work on each other.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 12, 2023, 09:47:40 AM
Meanwhile, don't cry for Admiral Kuznyetsov! It isn't like we ever knew ye!  :martini:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-only-aircraft-carrier-looks-rip/ar-AA19K6r3?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=3c57c3091b0d4164a217278107e2cd92&ei=28

It isn't on fire (unfortunately) in that photo -- not in that photo, it has a reputation for goofy and fatal accidents! That's smoke from a smokestack.

I don't recall WW2 carriers putting out that much smoke unless they were intentionally trying to create a screen, but the Soviet-named carrier (for the guy in charge of all the Soviet Navy at Barbarossa's kickoff in 1941) in the brave new world of the 21st century future, has finally caught up with the technology of World War I carriers.  :twirl:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-admiral-kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-runs-on-dirty-fuel-mazut-2022-4
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 12, 2023, 10:22:42 AM
If the Kuznyetsov is not on fire, is that a win for Russia?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 12, 2023, 10:47:36 AM
My sense is that the Russians are trying VERY hard to avoid relegation right now.  They'll even take a tie in the Kuznyetsov situation...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 11:33:40 AM
back to Ukrainian supplies.

Pakistan to send military aid to Ukraine including 10,000 Grad rounds writes Economic Times. It will arrive in Ukraine through the German port of Emden with subsequent transit through Poland.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pakistan-to-supply-arms-to-ukraine-via-german-port-now/articleshow/97808726.cms?from=mdr

South Korea will give the US half a million 155-mm shells to replace those that the Americans supply to Ukraine from their own warehouses. The law prohibits South Korea from exporting weapons to countries at war, but such a three-way scheme does not fall under the law, and will allow the United States to supply shells to Ukraine much more freely.

https://www.donga.com/news/Politics/article/all/20230412/118792328/1?ref=main

things like this makes me question the leak some more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 12, 2023, 12:09:29 PM
What are Pakistani/Indian relations like these days? Is Pakistan sending munitions to Ukraine to stick it to India and Russia?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 12:30:50 PM
while not great I think both countries look at China as the bigger threat then each other.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on April 12, 2023, 02:28:04 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 12, 2023, 09:47:40 AMMeanwhile, don't cry for Admiral Kuznyetsov! It isn't like we ever knew ye!  :martini:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-only-aircraft-carrier-looks-rip/ar-AA19K6r3?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=3c57c3091b0d4164a217278107e2cd92&ei=28

It isn't on fire (unfortunately) in that photo -- not in that photo, it has a reputation for goofy and fatal accidents! That's smoke from a smokestack.

I don't recall WW2 carriers putting out that much smoke unless they were intentionally trying to create a screen, but the Soviet-named carrier (for the guy in charge of all the Soviet Navy at Barbarossa's kickoff in 1941) in the brave new world of the 21st century future, has finally caught up with the technology of World War I carriers.  :twirl:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-admiral-kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-runs-on-dirty-fuel-mazut-2022-4

I could also be a problem with an improper fuel/air mixture.  Any number of things could cause that issue, including poor maintenance (especially of the burners and/or blowers), poor training of the watchstanders, etc.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on April 12, 2023, 02:32:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 11:33:40 AMSouth Korea will give the US half a million 155-mm shells to replace those that the Americans supply to Ukraine from their own warehouses. The law prohibits South Korea from exporting weapons to countries at war, but such a three-way scheme does not fall under the law, and will allow the United States to supply shells to Ukraine much more freely.

https://www.donga.com/news/Politics/article/all/20230412/118792328/1?ref=main

things like this makes me question the leak some more.
I can't find an english translation button on that site.  On a side note, it's funny that they use english/western numeral system instead of their own.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 02:37:25 PM
translate widgets in your toolbar help.

It was belatedly known that the US administration of Joe Biden signed a contract with the Korean government and defense industry last month to receive 500,000 Korean-made 155mm shells in the form of a loan. 500,000 rounds is five times more than the 100,000 rounds of 155mm shells the government sold to the United States at the end of last year. In particular, it is half of the approximately 1 million units that the US provided to Ukraine last year. It is unusual to provide shells, which are consumable weapons, to other countries in the form of rental rather than sale.

According to multiple government sources on the 11th, the US administration purchased 100,000 rounds of 155mm shells from the South Korean government last year and requested an additional 100,000 rounds in February this year. In response, the government agreed with the U.S. government to provide 500,000 rounds to the U.S. but loan them out. A source said, "South Korea and the U.S. government officials have been struggling over how to support."

Another source said, "After finding a way to respond in good faith to the request of the United States, our blood ally, while adhering to the government principle of not providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, we decided to provide them in a rental manner instead of significantly increasing the supply of shells."

It is known that the US government is not sending 500,000 rounds to Ukraine right away, but is planning to supply the existing ammunition to Ukraine after filling it with US stockpiles. This is the same way the US used 100,000 rounds purchased from South Korea last year. The government believes that the risk of the US providing shells to Ukraine without the consent of the Korean government is low, as ownership of the shells belongs to the Korean government and must be returned later. Nevertheless, it is interpreted that the South Korean government has indirectly provided arms support to Ukraine.

The fact that the government and the defense industry signed a contract last month to provide 500,000 155mm shells to the Biden administration in the form of rental, not sale, is a situation where it is difficult to ignore repeated requests for assistance from the United States while maintaining the principle of not providing lethal weapons to Ukraine. It is solved as a compromise considering It is said that the decision was made to make the most of the cause and profit, considering that it had to produce results at President Yoon Seok-yeol's state visit to the United States and the Korea-US summit at the end of this month. Although there is controversy over authenticity, the New York Times reported that in a conversation between then-National Security Office Director Kim Seong-han and Presidential Secretary for Foreign Affairs Lee Moon-hee last month when the suspicion of wiretapping was raised, "If the United States responds to the request to provide artillery shells, the United States will not become the end user and may violate the principle of no lethal weapon support." It was reported that there was concern about the purpose of 'there is'.

500,000 rounds is almost half of the 1,000,000 rounds the U.S. provided to Ukraine last year. It is also pointed out that it is difficult to rule out the possibility that Russia will protest even if Korean shells are not directly supplied to Ukraine by lending them to the United States.

 Enter 2023-04-12 03:00Updated 2023-04-12 03:00
reading mode Open the font size setting layer listen to the news print
Half of the amount of U.S. aid to Ukraine last year
'M777 155mm towed howitzer' provided by the US to Ukraine. It is a weapon that uses 155mm shells. South Korea has decided to lend 500,000 155mm shells to the United States. A screenshot of the US Department of Defense website'M777 155mm towed howitzer' provided by the US to Ukraine. It is a weapon that uses 155mm shells. South Korea has decided to lend 500,000 155mm shells to the United States. A screenshot of the US Department of Defense website
It was belatedly known that the US administration of Joe Biden signed a contract with the Korean government and defense industry last month to receive 500,000 Korean-made 155mm shells in the form of a loan. 500,000 rounds is five times more than the 100,000 rounds of 155mm shells the government sold to the United States at the end of last year. In particular, it is half of the approximately 1 million units that the US provided to Ukraine last year. It is unusual to provide shells, which are consumable weapons, to other countries in the form of rental rather than sale.

According to multiple government sources on the 11th, the US administration purchased 100,000 rounds of 155mm shells from the South Korean government last year and requested an additional 100,000 rounds in February this year. In response, the government agreed with the U.S. government to provide 500,000 rounds to the U.S. but loan them out. A source said, "South Korea and the U.S. government officials have been struggling over how to support."

Another source said, "After finding a way to respond in good faith to the request of the United States, our blood ally, while adhering to the government principle of not providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, we decided to provide them in a rental manner instead of significantly increasing the supply of shells."

It is known that the US government is not sending 500,000 rounds to Ukraine right away, but is planning to supply the existing ammunition to Ukraine after filling it with US stockpiles. This is the same way the US used 100,000 rounds purchased from South Korea last year. The government believes that the risk of the US providing shells to Ukraine without the consent of the Korean government is low, as ownership of the shells belongs to the Korean government and must be returned later. Nevertheless, it is interpreted that the South Korean government has indirectly provided arms support to Ukraine.


Korea maintains the principle of 'no direct provision of lethal weapons'... Compromise by leasing shells to the US




Renting rather than selling ammunition, an unusual way
to increase the amount by 5 times the amount purchased in the US last year, reducing diplomatic risks by taking into consideration
the cause and profit ahead of the US visit



The fact that the government and the defense industry signed a contract last month to provide 500,000 155mm shells to the Biden administration in the form of rental, not sale, is a situation where it is difficult to ignore repeated requests for assistance from the United States while maintaining the principle of not providing lethal weapons to Ukraine. It is solved as a compromise considering It is said that the decision was made to make the most of the cause and profit, considering that it had to produce results at President Yoon Seok-yeol's state visit to the United States and the Korea-US summit at the end of this month. Although there is controversy over authenticity, the New York Times reported that in a conversation between then-National Security Office Director Kim Seong-han and Presidential Secretary for Foreign Affairs Lee Moon-hee last month when the suspicion of wiretapping was raised, "If the United States responds to the request to provide artillery shells, the United States will not become the end user and may violate the principle of no lethal weapon support." It was reported that there was concern about the purpose of 'there is'.

500,000 rounds is almost half of the 1,000,000 rounds the U.S. provided to Ukraine last year. It is also pointed out that it is difficult to rule out the possibility that Russia will protest even if Korean shells are not directly supplied to Ukraine by lending them to the United States.

● Exceptional loan of shells to the United States ahead of Mr.
Last year, when the government exported 100,000 rounds of 155mm shells to the United States, it added a proviso that 'the end user is the United States'. Nevertheless, once sold, there were concerns that Korean shells might go into Ukraine and be used for killing purposes as the US operates the shells.

In the midst of this, as the war in Ukraine has been prolonged, the demand for weapons has steadily increased. A government source said, "Since the beginning of this year, ammunition stocks in Ukraine have become very short." Last month, the U.S. Department of Defense announced plans to provide additional weapons worth 350 million dollars (about 463 billion won), including 155mm shells, and appealed for arms support from its allies. Last month, the European Union also announced that it would send more than one million 155mm shells to Ukraine over the next 12 months.

The Biden administration is said to have mentioned the need for shell support to the Korean government around February. Another government source said, "The US side did not ask for arms support unconditionally," but "they encouraged our participation by saying that they were concerned about the war as it would take a long time and could become serious." He added, "Considering the ROK-US relationship at the time, it was not a situation where we could only stick to our position." It seems to be the context of the conversation between former chief Kim and former secretary Lee, in which suspicion of US wiretapping was raised.

In the end, the government, which could not ignore the demands of the Biden administration, agreed with the US government last month to provide 5 times the shells sold at the end of last year by rental method after careful consideration. In particular, the situation that President Yoon is scheduled to pay a state visit to the United States at the end of this month may have influenced the decision to provide shells.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened that "Korea-Russia relations will collapse if weapons are provided to Ukraine," raising concerns that Russia may rebel.

However, there is an analysis that the rental method is a reasonable method in terms of managing relations with Russia. By taking the form of lending rather than selling, in the worst case, even if Russia strongly opposes and takes retaliatory measures against Korean citizens and businessmen in Russia, it can be managed by requesting the US to return the shells. It is evaluated that the government applied an unprecedented rental form to the supply of shells, an expendable weapon, in order to find a way to minimize diplomatic risks between the United States and Russia.

A government source said, "Indirect aid to Ukraine through loans is the best way to send a message to the international community that South Korea, as a responsible member of the international community, is not just sitting by the war without provoking Russia."

Reporter Son Hyo-joo hjson@donga.com
Reporter Shin Jin-woo niceshin@donga.com
Reporter Nari Shin journari@donga.com
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 12, 2023, 04:21:33 PM
OK Mr. "Wall-O-Text"

is there a TL;DR of that somewhere?

I mean other than UAF good, Orcs bad.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 12, 2023, 04:23:42 PM
I find it interesting that the UAF seem to be targeting the Russian Counter Battery systems with more frequency now... prelude to Spring offensive maybe? Are we going to have a pool about when and where?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 05:08:37 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2023, 04:21:33 PMOK Mr. "Wall-O-Text"

is there a TL;DR of that somewhere?

I mean other than UAF good, Orcs bad.


tldr the South Koreans are giving 500k arty shells to Ukraine.
and its not my fault you old people cant have one of your kids and grandkids install the browser widget that translates everything.   :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 05:10:09 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2023, 04:23:42 PMI find it interesting that the UAF seem to be targeting the Russian Counter Battery systems with more frequency now... prelude to Spring offensive maybe? Are we going to have a pool about when and where?

sometime in May is my guess.  this is due to a 50/50 split between the weather actually sucking across the whole front and final training the the units that are going to do it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 12, 2023, 10:24:11 PM
TLDR the longer version:  South Korean law prohibits them from selling weapons directly to a country actively at war, but they want to support their ally (the US) and thwart China's ally, Russia.  So the Koreans are just renting 500,000 155mm shells to the US for a little while.  We'll return them at some point.

Unless we have to fire them first.

On a separate note:  It's so hard to differentiate information from misinformation in the social media sphere these days, I don't really know that anybody is trying very hard.  If they are, I have no idea how they're trying to do it.

Looking at a map of Ukraine, it's easy to see that the Ukes have the interior lines of supply and communication.  They ought to be able to adjust the focus of their attack somewhat depending on what progress happens where. 

Driving the Russians back from Bakhmut would be a big symbolic victory for the Ukes, but it occurs to me that the same terrain that made it so hard for the Russians to seize would be bound to hinder the Ukrainians in a counter-attack there. 

All other things being equal, the bigger strategic blow would be in the south.  If the Ukrainians can menace Russian supply lines in the direction of the coast (say anywhere between Mariupol and Melitupol), that threatens to cut off both Crimea and all the Russian units south of the Dniepr. 

I have no idea how possible that is, in terms of terrain or troop concentrations.  But the Ukrainians wouldn't even have to complete the cut-off.  They'd just have to be able to threaten it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 10:29:25 PM
the problem with getting Swedish tanks.

(https://www.1999.co.jp/itbig19/10197473z11.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 10:31:32 PM
QuoteAll other things being equal, the bigger strategic blow would be in the south.

I think this is where most of the trenches and whatnot have been built up.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqTtWbeWcAc4Zsk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2023, 09:51:38 AM
happy moskva day!   :Party:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtlLMxhXwAADcxm?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 13, 2023, 10:05:27 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 12, 2023, 10:24:11 PMAll other things being equal, the bigger strategic blow would be in the south.

Very clearly the case.  Even before the leaks there has been an absolute orgy of evidence that a drive towards Melitopol or Mariupol will be where the blow will land.   The leaks did nothing but continue to confirm suspicions.

I haven't seen this much of a clear intent of a axis for an offensive since Patton took over the invasion force at Calais.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 13, 2023, 10:26:30 AM
I think that's what the Russkies are expecting too. That's why the double lines of defenses set-up there, at least that's what the Orks claim anyway. Still, that is a l-o-n-g line to defend. Can they be strong everywhere along it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2023, 11:01:54 AM
its very much a case of having to just punch through two or three places and then run rampant in the rear.
Ive read a lot about how the new Ukrainian formations wont have the punch to do so if the NATO kit is evenly
distributed.  Im just an armchair general but I wouldnt do that.  Id concentrate the punch and let the mechanized
infantry follow.  this isnt any groundbreaking idea by any means.  if anything its long established OMG doctrine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 13, 2023, 11:55:04 AM
Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2023, 12:55:49 PM
fucking incel gamers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJpZCI6IjQzNzQ2NzEiLCJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNjgxMjcyMDAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNjgyNTY3OTk5LCJpYXQiOjE2ODEyNzIwMDAsImp0aSI6IjFlYmNjMjIyLThlMTgtNGRkYi1iZWFhLTNmNjM3NThhNGY3NiIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9uYXRpb25hbC1zZWN1cml0eS8yMDIzLzA0LzEyL2Rpc2NvcmQtbGVha2VkLWRvY3VtZW50cy8ifQ.Z1JC1YDd7pyUK9L3e1fGs3TvBjtPeo8VLudKFcoP_7E
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2023, 01:01:23 PM
how about those fortifications and trenches.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ftmq6_sXsAIL2Of?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 13, 2023, 02:06:03 PM
Fortifications seem very useful for protecting against artillery, so long as you can preserve a battle line.  But a cluster of fixed fortification seems really useless unless they're established at critical choke points.

I agree on the concentration of NATO weaponry.  If I had to guess on the distribution of those systems, I'd assume that vehicles like the AMX-10 and the Stryker might be more easily peanut-buttered across existing mechanized forces, while you'd want most of the Leopards and Bradleys concentrated in more compact formations. 

I'll admit, I've seen sometimes conflicting reports on exactly which versions of equipment are showing up when (partly because different versions of the same system are often showing up at different times--most media is notoriously bad at things like differentiating between a Leopard 1 and a Leopard 2). 

It's not at all clear to me how many Abrams will be showing up there anytime soon, but my sense is that it won't be many before the summer offensive starts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2023, 02:11:28 PM
m1s at end of summer is my guess.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on April 13, 2023, 03:36:17 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2023, 12:55:49 PMfucking incel gamers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJpZCI6IjQzNzQ2NzEiLCJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNjgxMjcyMDAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNjgyNTY3OTk5LCJpYXQiOjE2ODEyNzIwMDAsImp0aSI6IjFlYmNjMjIyLThlMTgtNGRkYi1iZWFhLTNmNjM3NThhNGY3NiIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9uYXRpb25hbC1zZWN1cml0eS8yMDIzLzA0LzEyL2Rpc2NvcmQtbGVha2VkLWRvY3VtZW50cy8ifQ.Z1JC1YDd7pyUK9L3e1fGs3TvBjtPeo8VLudKFcoP_7E

Agree, I can't tell you how many idiot kids I've come across in my discord channels.  Not surprised this happened.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 13, 2023, 04:01:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 05:08:37 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2023, 04:21:33 PMOK Mr. "Wall-O-Text"

is there a TL;DR of that somewhere?

I mean other than UAF good, Orcs bad.


tldr the South Koreans are giving 500k arty shells to Ukraine.
and its not my fault you old people cant have one of your kids and grandkids install the browser widget that translates everything.   :evil:

my translate efforts stops at Google
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 13, 2023, 04:04:47 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 10:29:25 PMthe problem with getting Swedish tanks.

(https://www.1999.co.jp/itbig19/10197473z11.jpg)


And god help you if you lose the special Allan wrench
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 13, 2023, 04:06:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 12, 2023, 05:10:09 PM
Quote from: Windigo on April 12, 2023, 04:23:42 PMI find it interesting that the UAF seem to be targeting the Russian Counter Battery systems with more frequency now... prelude to Spring offensive maybe? Are we going to have a pool about when and where?

sometime in May is my guess.  this is due to a 50/50 split between the weather actually sucking across the whole front and final training the the units that are going to do it.

It would be a real bad assed Israeli type move if they went inside Russia to flank the forces in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 13, 2023, 04:25:00 PM
As the war grinds on, you have to think that sort of thing is on the table for the Ukrainians, even if the NATO allies would poop a sharp-edged brick when it happened.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2023, 07:29:18 PM
 :idiot2:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/malfunctioning-russian-missile-may-have-saved-rc-135-spy-plane
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 13, 2023, 10:55:56 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2023, 07:29:18 PM:idiot2:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/malfunctioning-russian-missile-may-have-saved-rc-135-spy-plane

Orcs bad....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 13, 2023, 11:50:43 PM
well how do you think a shoot down of a British plane with 30 people on it would work out?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 14, 2023, 07:33:28 AM
Meanwhile, man that AI art generator is getting photorealistic!

(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA19PUdU.img?w=768&h=576&m=6)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-t-90-tank-from-ukraine-mysteriously-appears-at-u-s-truck-stop/ar-AA19PDsE?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=3a716a6649c143988315a8b31a12254a&ei=33

.....wait, what?!

This story may end up migrating over to the Flordia Man thread.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 14, 2023, 09:03:19 AM
Haha nothing surprises me with this war anymore, good or bad.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 14, 2023, 09:59:52 AM
Is somebody re-making, "Red Dawn" again? I thought we were supposed to be tracking all that armament over there?  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 14, 2023, 10:50:42 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 14, 2023, 09:59:52 AMIs somebody re-making, "Red Dawn" again? I thought we were supposed to be tracking all that armament over there?  :shocked:

As it happens, Oryx (and someone else) helped identify when and where this T-90 was captured, and which Uk force used it for at least a little while. There's some interesting information (albeit informally) in the article.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 14, 2023, 11:31:53 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 14, 2023, 07:33:28 AMMeanwhile, man that AI art generator is getting photorealistic!

Getting?  You should see what I've been able to do with my 4090, Stable Diffusion with a custom trained model, face swap and Topaz AI.

I could almost make Gus look good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 14, 2023, 03:06:24 PM
You sure that's the right Gus?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 14, 2023, 03:19:56 PM
Can you make a, 'Gus-Angel' SirAndrew? That'd be worth some hot cash I bet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 14, 2023, 03:27:49 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 14, 2023, 03:19:56 PMCan you make a, 'Gus-Angel' SirAndrew? That'd be worth some hot cash I bet.

At this point there's very little I couldn't make with that that software/hardware combo. 

I kid you not, the stuff is exciting/terrifying.  Far beyond the scope of this thread but if I can make convincing AI images/videos with what little Python I know and mostly self training then imagine what an "expert" can do.   

I've already begun deploying Chat GPT in my podcasts to quickly cook up blurbs for our platform releases. 

My Cyberwarfare friend who I've mentioned on occasion in this thread are working together on a few papers talking about potential battlefield applications of this stuff for disinformation.

And I can assure you everything I've made is 100% safe for work. 

 :privatedancer:  :privatedancer:  :privatedancer:  :privatedancer:  :privatedancer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2023, 03:53:29 PM
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/03/russia-demography-birthrate-decline-ukraine/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2023, 05:23:43 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ftr5kM8X0AAKlsM?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 14, 2023, 05:40:36 PM
Can't possibly be the right Gus for I am fab.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2023, 08:38:20 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1646967221648871431
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 14, 2023, 09:39:08 PM
Question. How will we know if the AI SirAndrew has replaced the real SirAndrew?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 14, 2023, 09:49:31 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 14, 2023, 09:39:08 PMQuestion. How will we know if the AI SirAndrew has replaced the real SirAndrew?

I am real.  I am not a chat bot. 

I promise....Dave.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on April 14, 2023, 09:51:00 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 14, 2023, 09:39:08 PMQuestion. How will we know if the AI SirAndrew has replaced the real SirAndrew?
When he stops talking about his girlfriend and starts talking about his new computer?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on April 14, 2023, 10:06:52 PM
Unleash the AIs on the bots and troll
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 14, 2023, 10:25:19 PM
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/destination-of-russian-t-90-tank-left-at-truck-stop-comes-into-focus
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 15, 2023, 10:52:47 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on April 14, 2023, 09:51:00 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 14, 2023, 09:39:08 PMQuestion. How will we know if the AI SirAndrew has replaced the real SirAndrew?
When he stops talking about his girlfriend and starts talking about his new computer?

...BUT THAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED, AAHHHH!

Also, his new forum pic looks much nicer. I am forced to assume this is not a coincidence.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 15, 2023, 11:02:42 AM
Meanwhile, the WarZone also reports on a T-54 arriving in the Ukraine.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/antique-t-54-series-tank-appears-with-russian-forces-in-ukraine?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation&spot_im_redirect_source=pitc
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 15, 2023, 11:05:47 AM
In honor of the arrival of that T-54, the Russians announce that one of their sabotage groups has already captured a Leopard far behind Russian lines and sank it into a swamp, trust us bro!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/12luvh8/russian_sabotage_unit_already_captured_a_leopard/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

The comments on that thread are hilarious. My favorite sub-thread so far: "Nonsense. Theres no Leopards left to capture, 450% of them were already destroyed." "Shucks...guess we gotta send in the Abrams sooner...oh wait they already destroyed all of those too" "You wouldn't know it, it goes to a different swamp."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 15, 2023, 01:45:42 PM
The Russians new strategy, Laugh the Ukrainians to death. Slower but saves on arty ammo.  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 15, 2023, 04:47:51 PM
^If they used the Laffs Strategy the would be world conquerors today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 15, 2023, 06:40:32 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1647357735158030336
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 16, 2023, 12:14:20 AM
General (ret) Mick Ryan's post of posts on Ukraine and what to come next:

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1647414738765381632

His latest substack on Bakhmut and, indeed, what might be next in the line.

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/beyond-bakhmut
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2023, 05:25:54 PM
opps  :uglystupid2:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ft8TcoaX0BI807h?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ft8frM4XgAAaHFz?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2023, 05:29:54 PM
 :evil:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ft8eNDUWAAAFrtc?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2023, 05:57:34 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1647912920108466176
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 17, 2023, 08:44:26 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ft6hW-5XsAA_0WZ?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 19, 2023, 04:26:24 PM
No posts here for three days? Ok here:

Ukraine war: The Russian ships accused of North Sea sabotage
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-6530

Ghost ships off Scandinavia...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2023, 06:07:11 PM
well, a satellite blew up over Kyiv today. 


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuGykdIWIAIUxPN?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2023, 07:32:38 PM
well since Gus was bored......


https://twitter.com/i/status/1648699457100210182
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 20, 2023, 01:38:33 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 19, 2023, 07:32:38 PMwell since Gus was bored......

Wow, looks like they were almost caught out in that bunker. Very lucky to have their squad leader alert, he was absolutely everywhere and made sure everyone knew what to do, too. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 20, 2023, 01:43:19 PM
Lots of reports of UAF attacks across a broad front on the southern front north of Melitopol.  Also reports of Russians ordering a withdrawal from their front line trenches near the east end of the Dniper. 

The UAF has said the counteroffensive has begun on the news but that it would be far different from what we've seen in the past. 

May be time for the main event.

I imagine though from the language and scope that they're just doing some prepetory actions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 20, 2023, 04:05:03 PM
it would seem things are afoot.  :evil:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuLp28cWAAI4WMs?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 20, 2023, 04:50:27 PM
On April 20, during the flight of the Su-34 RuAF aircraft over the city of Belgorod, an abnormal descent of aviation ammunition occurred, the RF Ministry of Defense reports.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuL7an5WIAQ6SAe?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 20, 2023, 11:24:07 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on April 20, 2023, 01:43:19 PMLots of reports of UAF attacks across a broad front on the southern front north of Melitopol.  Also reports of Russians ordering a withdrawal from their front line trenches near the east end of the Dniper. 

The UAF has said the counteroffensive has begun on the news but that it would be far different from what we've seen in the past. 

May be time for the main event.

I imagine though from the language and scope that they're just doing some prepetory actions.

Mainstream media hasn't been picking that up yet.  I guess we'll see where it goes from here.

I wonder what the characterization that it will be far different from what we've seen before means?  More beavers?  Less farm machinery?  More precision munitions?  Ukrainians painting a backwards "A" on their tanks so we can say that we've seen everything in this war, from A to Z? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 21, 2023, 01:20:14 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 20, 2023, 04:50:27 PMOn April 20, during the flight of the Su-34 RuAF aircraft over the city of Belgorod, an abnormal descent of aviation ammunition occurred, the RF Ministry of Defense reports.


What air defense doing?

https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1649259034690682880
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on April 21, 2023, 09:27:55 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 20, 2023, 04:50:27 PMOn April 20, during the flight of the Su-34 RuAF aircraft over the city of Belgorod, an abnormal descent of aviation ammunition occurred, the RF Ministry of Defense reports.

I think the most shocking thing about the incident is that the Russians actually admitted to it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 21, 2023, 11:17:36 AM
Every good Dictator drops a bomb or two on his people on occasion just to let them know...I AM WATCHING.  :nono2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 21, 2023, 01:13:54 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on April 20, 2023, 11:24:07 PMMainstream media hasn't been picking that up yet.  I guess we'll see where it goes from here.

I wonder what the characterization that it will be far different from what we've seen before means?  More beavers?  Less farm machinery?  More precision munitions?  Ukrainians painting a backwards "A" on their tanks so we can say that we've seen everything in this war, from A to Z? 

It ended up being the employment of NATO provided Arty on on Russian forward positions an some counterbattery action in Bakhmut.  Russians overreacted on comms chatter.  Apparently along the southern front north of Melitopol some Russian units fell back to their secondary lines even thought they weren't actually under direct attack.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 21, 2023, 01:53:23 PM
Wow.  That bodes well for a Spring offensive on the part of the Ukrainians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 21, 2023, 03:15:20 PM
Ah, the practice withdrawal shall lure the Ukrainians into a false sense of superiority!

Re painting an A backwards: I'd rather see it upside-down to signify the inclusion of an entire set. (With Turn-A Gundam as a reference.  :Nerd: )

I couldn't stop laughing at the leopard/baby-deer meme. Actually better than the Godzilla vs Bambi equivalent!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 21, 2023, 03:31:49 PM
^Good point. Isn't 'A' backwards still...'A' anyway?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 21, 2023, 04:22:17 PM
Depends on how it was written to begin with. Ukrainian A is symmetrical (and looks exactly like our A),  although that could vary depending on font of course (just like ours). Their uppercase/capital version of Delta however, De, looks a lot like a fancy A (not like a perfect triangle from Greek) leaning verrrry slightly to one side -- so you could in fact flip that backwards, although it would be hard to notice. (The lowercase version looks much like a Greek lowercase delta.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 21, 2023, 05:55:55 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuQ2tdmX0BUt1xa?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 21, 2023, 06:53:59 PM
Quote from: Groggy on April 21, 2023, 09:27:55 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 20, 2023, 04:50:27 PMOn April 20, during the flight of the Su-34 RuAF aircraft over the city of Belgorod, an abnormal descent of aviation ammunition occurred, the RF Ministry of Defense reports.

I think the most shocking thing about the incident is that the Russians actually admitted to it.

I guess it was aliens working for the Chinese?  Or that astronomical satellite?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2023, 08:58:55 AM
pretty grim scene.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1649542047659851776
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 22, 2023, 09:24:28 AM
Interesting bit of hardware geekery on Forbes about how the Ukrainians might be arming the 100+ Leopard 1s that are coming their way.  Obviously, the focus of military hardware pornographers is the trio of tanks mentioned in Star's pic above, but there are only about 100 of those reaching service any time soon.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/22/we-dont-know-what-kind-of-ammo-ukraine-is-getting-for-its-leopard-1-and-m-55s-tanks-it-matters-a-lot/?sh=3ec0d71a13b1

It never occurred to me that a backwards "A" might look like anything besides a frontwards A.  I just wanted to weave a little more irony into my question along said lines.

NATO has been donating a fair amount of mobile artillery.  If that comes equipped with superior radar for counter-battery fire, that might make a big difference.  I have no idea how the target-finding for those sorts of systems is done (aside from some generic combination of sig int and UAV spotting).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2023, 11:36:03 AM
as long as they can see russian tanks, theyll have no problem penning them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 22, 2023, 04:09:45 PM
So you're saying that the 105mm rounds on the Lep1s will penetrate any tank at any range, regardless of the kind of AP ammunition they're provided?  The article explicitly said to the contrary.

My sense is that those Lep1s will still be plenty useful, as the frequency of a straight-up tank-vs-tank duel gets exaggerated.  I do worry about the logistical burden of 100 Leps 1s, 110 Lep 2s, 31 Abrams, and 18 Challengers.  But I hope the Ukrainians can figure that out.  They seem to have been pretty resourceful so far!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2023, 05:31:44 PM
Im not saying any tank at any range but I think theyll pen anything they find in the russian army.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 22, 2023, 05:32:02 PM
Considering the Russians are taking T-62's out of mothballs at increasing rates, I'd imagine even the old 105's should do pretty well. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 22, 2023, 11:00:58 PM
and that their ERA is filled with wood or rubber...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 23, 2023, 02:55:07 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on April 21, 2023, 11:17:36 AMEvery good Dictator drops a bomb or two on his people on occasion just to let them know...I AM WATCHING.  :nono2:

I've seen quite a few mil twitters posting what happened was a guided bomb failing to expand its winglets while being targeted to fly towards Kharkiv. RuAF mostly flies over friendly territory for launches, but why they chose to launch above a city is anyone's guess.

Now there's been a second bomb found in Belgorod, of similar build it seems. If so, apparently it failed to get its winglets out, and not only that, then failed to detonate on top of the previous failure.

Ignorance is bliss, they say. Apparently, utter incompetence can be bliss, too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 23, 2023, 03:42:53 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1650026456540409856
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 23, 2023, 12:16:03 PM
Charming.

Also a good reminder the propaganda they spout is for internal consumption with little regard how it is seen in Europe or in the US. Seems to work well too, unfortunately. Everyone's attacking poor Russia.

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1650018439761674240
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 23, 2023, 01:09:18 PM
without nukes this would have been done with last summer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 23, 2023, 01:14:33 PM
found this to be a pretty good summation of things.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1650152039421296642
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 23, 2023, 02:56:06 PM
Ukrainians are announcing that they've established a presence on the Eastern shore of the Dnipro River near Kherson. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-established-positions-east-bank-of-dnipro-river-isw-2023-4

The released footage was supposedly taken on 4/18.  I have three thoughts about the Ukrainians' announcement of this:

1) The bridgehead is now sufficiently expanded that they feel confident that they can hold it against Russian counterattack.

2) It's fake news, intended to create more background noise for the Russian intel operations but of no other consequence.

3) The Ukrainians are announcing this in an effort to sucker the Russians westward, with an eye towards attacking somewhere else.

From where I stand, pushing the Russians out of the southwestern portion of Kherson Oblast is a win (any liberation of territory is a win), and it does get them closer to Crimea, it's among the least strategically important pieces of the current conflict.  I don't expect Ukraine to chase the Russians out of Ukraine this year (or ever, really, although I can always hope).  But the real military victories come not from seizing land but from cutting off Russian military units (or at least threatening to cut them off).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 23, 2023, 03:26:55 PM
from what Ive been seeing its option 2 and 3.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 23, 2023, 04:55:09 PM
Yeah.  That post by Tannehill was very specific and very detailed.  I've not had the patience to plow through Twitter trying to separate the wheat from the chaff, but she seems to make very detailed and specific points. 

It's interesting to note that Zaphorizia could be the jumping-off point for almost any of the attacks.

It's also interesting to me how much military analysis lends itself to systems theory analysis.  It's not just about stocks (e.g., how many soldiers, how many weapons), but it's also about flows (logistics:  ammunition, replacements, etc.) and the likely bottlenecks in those flows. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 23, 2023, 07:42:51 PM
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/04/artillery-paradox-how-ukraine-does-more-damage-with-fewer-rounds-than-russia/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 24, 2023, 02:41:43 AM
Waffen ZZ gonna Waffen ZZ

https://twitter.com/DGisSERIOUS/status/1650284788706684929
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 24, 2023, 07:25:17 AM
"First, with an iron hand crush the enemy classes..."  :stormtrooper2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 24, 2023, 10:10:12 AM
Like they ever, 'captured' an enemy prisoner.  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 24, 2023, 10:16:14 AM
Yeah.  My understanding is that this was framed in response to a broadcast clip of captured audio where two Ukrainian soldiers were saying that they were going to execute a POW.  I'm sure that Prigozhin was totally respecting every miniscule detail of the Geneva Convention prior to that...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 24, 2023, 07:47:10 PM
soon  :evil:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1650606008094302208

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on April 24, 2023, 09:53:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 24, 2023, 07:47:10 PMsoon  :evil:

I'm worried about their vulnerability against the 9M133 Kornet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2023, 01:28:32 AM
so... nukes   :buck2:

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-tries-to-conceal-its-dwindling-nuclear-stockpile/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2023, 01:30:29 AM
Quote from: Groggy on April 24, 2023, 09:53:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 24, 2023, 07:47:10 PMsoon  :evil:

I'm worried about their vulnerability against the 9M133 Kornet.

there are already photos of leo2s being fitted with ERA, which should be interesting.  I'm also wondering how many atgm the russians have to use.  Im sure its a fair amount but....?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2023, 02:29:45 AM
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2023
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2023, 06:43:27 AM
I dunno if the aging of Russia's nuclear arsenal makes me feel better or worse. I think worse.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 25, 2023, 08:09:41 AM
I realize it's an oversimplification, but I tend to lean toward "Fewer Russian nukes = better".

Then again, Putler may start feeling like he's gotta use 'em or lose 'em.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 25, 2023, 10:07:09 AM
That was an interesting article. I don't know if a Kiev source is the most reliable concerning Russia's nukes, but it was a view I never considered. I would be worried also that Putler would do as Jason suggests and get his money's worth while he still can.  :HideEyes: Meanwhile, Ping looks-on hungrily.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2023, 11:14:52 AM
I known I've  brought up the question as to whether they would work before.
now for some jdams:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1650891799521640449?t=e9MtSk6R2Fuukao3blQ2YA&s=19
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 25, 2023, 11:23:03 AM
Quote from: Groggy on April 24, 2023, 09:53:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 24, 2023, 07:47:10 PMsoon  :evil:

I'm worried about their vulnerability against the 9M133 Kornet.

Even modern MBTs can't survive operating solo today.  That's where the importance of the Bradleys and other IFVs really comes into play--along with adequate recon vehicles, disposable drones for aerial spotting, artillery, etc. 

Combined arms teams using aggressively deployed infantry are a must to ensure the survival of tanks in most terrain--the Russians learned this lesson the hard way near the start of the war.  Tanks obviously do better in open terrain than in forests, cities, or swamps.  But even in open terrain, the Kormet has a range of up to 6 miles and can be concealed.

Modern war is often about "shooting something I kinda see with whatever I've got on hand".  While that bodes well for the more modern tanks equipped with ERA, these systems aren't silver bullets... er, silver tanks?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2023, 05:22:32 PM
If the whole Russian state falls apart the nukes can end up anywhere and my central fear of the 1000s of Russian nukes suddenly becoming someone else's nukes is palpable - do we really want Chechens running around with tactical nukes? Even just a couple?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2023, 05:26:42 PM
that didnt happen when they fell apart before and it wont happen the next time.  this is something else Ive mentioned in this thread.  simply put, we bought them for above retail value and no one wants to be running from the CIA and every other intelligence service.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2023, 05:49:31 PM
^There's no way to account for every single one if Russia collapses, the past is no guarantee of future performance and jihadists or other lunatics don't give a shit who is after them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2023, 07:01:20 PM
while I agree with you for the most part we're talking about people or groups that would have every police and intelligence service on the planet hunting them down.
Id rather take the money.  never bet against enlightened self interest.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 25, 2023, 07:31:30 PM
There's just too many nukes and Russia is too much of a basket case - the risks are higher now than 30+ years ago when the USSR collapsed.

On another similar point that you made above and I do agree with - it's anyone's guess if the majority of Russia's nukes will even work at this point.

But couple with that with really shitty security, command, control...oy vey, breh.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on April 25, 2023, 09:53:39 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2023, 01:30:29 AMthere are already photos of leo2s being fitted with ERA, which should be interesting.  I'm also wondering how many atgm the russians have to use.  Im sure its a fair amount but....?

Yeah, I was going off of a quote tweet from Brynn Tannehill from a few days back who was commenting on the thin armor of the Leopard 1's that pretty much turns the tank into a death trap. She quote tweeted someone who tweeted a Forbes article that stated the Leopard 1A5 models are on track to be the most common Western tank when they start arriving to the Ukraine next month.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2023, 10:12:33 PM
so..... anthrax

seems that while digging trenches in the south some russians dug up a cow graveyards and most of the unit caught natural anthrax.    :ROFL:   this was reported by the mayor of Melitopol.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 25, 2023, 10:24:24 PM
That has to be utterly devastating for them.  :whistle:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2023, 11:53:57 PM
the result of 9 months....  ffs ruzzians are stupid.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fuk7fVeXwB00vG3?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 26, 2023, 07:26:53 AM
Speaking of new tanks in Russia and combined arms plus standoff distance being important...

...the T-14 Armatas are here! Soon they will be wictory!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-best-tanks-are-in-ukraine-russian-state-media-says-but-they-re-not-assaulting-kyiv-s-forces-just-shooting-at-them-from-a-distance/ar-AA1almZV?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=53f06f2525bf4e62ac27a2c1107c11f3&ei=31

QuoteThe tanks, which have been eleven years in the making, are so new that deploying them to fight in Ukraine would be a "high-risk decision," the British Defense Ministry said earlier this year.

"If Russia deploys T-14, it will likely primarily be for propaganda purposes," the British Defense Ministry said in January. "Production is probably only in the low tens, while commanders are unlikely to trust the vehicle in combat."

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 26, 2023, 10:32:38 AM
 :ThumbsUp:   The Ukrainian Farm Tractors are waiting for them. "Come closer Comrades. Just...a...little...closer".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 26, 2023, 07:38:48 PM
Makes me wonder further - what took so long?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 26, 2023, 07:53:14 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 26, 2023, 07:38:48 PMMakes me wonder further - what took so long?

Lots of reasons.  In the years since the tank premiered they've managed to build less than 20 of the things, and there's a lot of good reasons to question its actual battlefield capabilities. 

The propaganda damage of losing even one to fire in combat, let alone one get captured, would be catastrophic. 

There's little evedince the T-14 can really do much of anything with the few numbers in service and the immense propaganda albatross hanging around its neck.

I'd imagine that, if it really is deployed, they're hoping to make use of the supposed range of its main gun and optics to snipe UAF armor outside of their ability to reliably return effective fire.  If that's the case they'll want to keep it clear of any NATO provided tanks that could shoot back.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 26, 2023, 09:09:48 PM
How much worse could it be to lose some Armatas compared to the sinking of the Moskva or the loss of all international credibility for the next 100 years?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 26, 2023, 09:38:49 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 26, 2023, 09:09:48 PMHow much worse could it be to lose some Armatas compared to the sinking of the Moskva or the loss of all international credibility for the next 100 years?

Compared to the Moskva, potentially a lot.  They've put a huge amount of clout and propaganda into the invincible Armata and Su-57, the "best tank and best airplane in the world" according to the Russian press.  Seeing one of those fail on the battlefield shows what a total failure the modernization programs in the Russian Army that Putin started years ago have been.

The Moskva, for all its prestige, was still an old Soviet era warship that was long overdue being put out to pasture.  The Armata has become the symbol of Russia's ability to stand up to the west and fight NATO on a one to one basis in technology.

It would be even worse if the UAF got hold of one and shipped it off to NATO to take a look under the hood.  The Russians have been VERY careful to not let the T-14 get looked over too closely, even when they parade it about in Red Square.  I don't think they want NATO to get a full understanding of its true capabilities, or lack thereof.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 26, 2023, 09:53:09 PM
sinking whats left of their arms industry  :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 26, 2023, 10:57:33 PM
Quote from: Groggy on April 25, 2023, 09:53:39 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on April 25, 2023, 01:30:29 AMthere are already photos of leo2s being fitted with ERA, which should be interesting.  I'm also wondering how many atgm the russians have to use.  Im sure its a fair amount but....?

Yeah, I was going off of a quote tweet from Brynn Tannehill from a few days back who was commenting on the thin armor of the Leopard 1's that pretty much turns the tank into a death trap. She quote tweeted someone who tweeted a Forbes article that stated the Leopard 1A5 models are on track to be the most common Western tank when they start arriving to the Ukraine next month.

Yeah, there are lots of Leopard 1's getting dusted off in stockpiles from places like Germany, Holland, Denmark, Spain, and Greece (?) I think.  The last number I saw was 125 of them.  Nobody's really comparing them as being equal to the Challengers, Abrams, or Leopards, but there will be more of them.  I suspect that they might well be on par with a lot of the tanks that the Ukrainians are using in a front-line capacity today--I have no idea how the armor of a mothballed Lep 1 compares to that of a T-64 or a T-62, but I suspect there's not much difference.

To the extent that Western tanks make a difference, it'll be the Leopard 2s.  Not only are they going to be much more numerous (100+ Leopard 2s vs. 31 M1A1s), but all their spare parts are produced and stockpiled a few hundred miles away from Ukraine.  The Bradleys aren't getting nearly as much love as the MBTs, but they're going to be more numerous and just as critical in keeping an armored combat group alive and moving forward.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 27, 2023, 08:15:43 AM
I don't think Russian proprietary defense tech is much more advanced than say, Iranian or North Korean tech. I could be wrong but...I just don't think so.

If Ukraine captured an Armata they could probably just add to what they know about it's weaknesses already.

If the Armata is even close to a match to Western tanks I will eat my hat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on April 27, 2023, 09:25:37 AM
Serious question. How much, or none at all, would the always reliable A-10 Warthog help Ukraine in their war with the Orcs? How difficult would it be for us to ship them over and operate them in the Ukraine and wouldn't it be easier to teach their pilots how to fly them than more advanced aircraft? The Air Force hates them anyway, why not give them to somebody who can really use them?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 27, 2023, 09:27:34 AM
^IIRC there was a controversy early last year about sending Warthogs over for fear of poking the Russian bear more.

Not sure if anyone still cares now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 27, 2023, 09:41:50 AM
Quote from: Gusington on April 27, 2023, 08:15:43 AMI don't think Russian proprietary defense tech is much more advanced than say, Iranian or North Korean tech. I could be wrong but...I just don't think so.

If Ukraine captured an Armata they could probably just add to what they know about it's weaknesses already.

If the Armata is even close to a match to Western tanks I will eat my hat.

I think your hat is safe.   Especially since the way the Russians sell the Armata isn't that it's a "match" for NATO armor.  They call it the first true Fifth Generation MBT, a paradigm shift in armor that leaves Western tech behind in favor of superior Russian engineering. 

That's exactly why the Russians don't want one captured or used in a direct battlefield role.  I agree with you and a lot of defense analysts that more and more the T-14 seems like a parade piece, and its supposedly next generation optics, FCS and armor are in fact wishlists rather than actually functional pieces of equipment on the tank.

It's telling that almost a decade into its development it still doesn't have the 150mm "Abrams Killer" main armament installed and they've only made 40 of the things of which maybe half are combat capable, if that.

I would wager that for all their flaws, the T-80U and T-90 are actually the more capable platforms in the Russian army and are being used as such.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 27, 2023, 09:56:14 AM
Yes, but most importantly: how well does it stand up to drones dropping bomblets?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 27, 2023, 10:19:48 AM
keep in mind that it seems that most tanks killed by drones are either already abandoned or they left the turret hatches open.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on April 27, 2023, 10:23:09 AM
Ukraine capture any T-90s?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 27, 2023, 12:26:06 PM
Yup.  A captured one turned up on a broken down semi rig at a small roadside casino in Lousiana just two weeks ago.  It was discussed here for a little while.

https://www.newsweek.com/mystery-russian-t-90-tank-turns-louisiana-gas-station-1794494

Quote from: Gusington on April 27, 2023, 09:27:34 AM^IIRC there was a controversy early last year about sending Warthogs over for fear of poking the Russian bear more.

Not sure if anyone still cares now.

There was some discussion of this on Ward Carroll's podcast last year.  He and Bronk get referenced a lot and may or may not be right all the time, but for what it's worth...

Bronk's take was that the A-10 was great for COIN and low-intensity conflict but that it would be toast for Russian air-defense systems in the absence of any sort of full-scale SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) and DEAD campaign. 

Assuming an A-10 could have made it flying over that 37-mile long convoy back last February, it would have raised Holy Hell.  But the A-10 would be even more vulnerable to ground-based air defenses than Russian fighters are today against Ukrainian air defenses, and there's a reason that the Russians aren't flying many missions over Ukrainian soil.

Bronk's take was that NATO could do a successful SEAD and DEAD campaign against the Russian air defenses assembled in Ukraine, but that it would take weeks or months AND a willingness to sustain real casualties.  He further added that there's no way that the European air forces could do it without the full support of in-theater USAF forces.

The Russians just have a crap-ton of air defenses built and the Ukrainians haven't done much to degrade them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on April 27, 2023, 01:01:19 PM
I'd love to see how we would do SEAD today if we throw our full arsenal at it, I think the US could suppress it enough and maintain relatively low losses.  But I'm talking stand-off weapons and even B2s to take out s400 sites.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on April 27, 2023, 01:13:53 PM
Quote from: Skoop on April 27, 2023, 01:01:19 PMI'd love to see how we would do SEAD today if we throw our full arsenal at it, I think the US could suppress it enough and maintain relatively low losses.  But I'm talking stand-off weapons and even B2s to take out s400 sites.

  Yeah, when I ran Next War Vietnam against the Chinese, the US took a while (the predicted 3 weeks one hears about -- 7 game turns)
and had some losses, but did dominate the air eventually and the B2s definitely helped a lot.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 27, 2023, 04:32:11 PM
Speaking of Ukrainian hero tractors...! ...well, we weren't speaking of them I suppose, but any time is Tractor-time!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/12w39at/a_selfmade_ukrainian_minesweeper_created_on_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

That's a tractor (not a truck). It's remote controlled. It has been A-teamed up into being a remote-controlled minesweeper.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 27, 2023, 06:30:46 PM
 :knuppel2:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1651535551755853824
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 27, 2023, 07:45:59 PM
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1651728308940447745
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 28, 2023, 07:49:25 AM
Maaaaybe some video of forced conscription in Moscow...?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/131b7f8/the_video_of_alleged_forceful_mobilization_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3#

One of the top comments translates the dialogue supposedly (I can't confirm it):

The man in the brown jacket is calling the police: "I am next to the enlistment office of the Babushkinskiy Distrist, located next to the Okruzhnaya metro station. The enlistment office's employees are forcing the conscript into the backseat of the car. There is a police officer standing idly by... I'd like to request the police squad to come here. Can you send the police over here? I don't want to complain, I want to prevent an unlawful grab of a civilian..."

The kid: "They are braking my arm! (repeats three times) Help! My arm! F*cking hell!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 28, 2023, 07:54:15 AM
Meanwhile, Wagner-boss Prigozhin has decided to start criticizing his employers openly and directly, something he may not have been doing before:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1312ddc/in_the_interspecies_struggle_with_other_peddlers/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3


Maybe he'd be in a better mood if he wasn't an arrant supervillain. Or if someone gave him some Snickers.

Speaking of, here's a genuinely good moment!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/130k8m6/little_gift_to_ukrainian_soldier_a_drive_by/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on April 28, 2023, 08:01:40 AM
One of the better Youtubing war reporters, Suchomimus, just released (less than an hour ago) some footage he found of (apparently) the first combat usage of the APKWS in Ukraine!


Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System sounds like an anime name!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2023, 11:42:49 AM
somewhere in Ohio.

(https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1651893578660970496?t=IS6qYcX7cyfgmb5dAPNmbQ&s=19)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 28, 2023, 05:28:28 PM
a Gepard gets its paint scratched.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1651877246057979906
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 29, 2023, 09:31:46 AM
on Gepards:

https://twitter.com/gepardtatze/status/1652284713501851648
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on April 30, 2023, 12:47:45 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 06:45:19 AM
Quote from: DetCord on March 17, 2023, 12:27:23 AMMe and the boys got back in November. Some of us that is.

Welcome home, DetCord. I'm sorry for your losses. As you very well know, it is the ugly universal truth of war.  When you feel up to it and ready, I encourage you to share your experiences with the group. Your direct, first hand experience will be very valuable for us all.

I'm a full-blown alcoholic now. Like no shit, the things I saw in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, the African Horn and elsewhere simply pale in comparison. I drink myself to blackout status nearly every night. Here I was thinking that my Ranger and Sapper and prior-service Marine self was hardcore enough to run the gauntlet. I'm not. Not even remotely. I've always considered myself a war-fighter, it's all I've ever known. But the things I saw and experienced and did over there have utterly ruined me.

The Russians are fuckin' monsters. Like actual evil beasts. We came across a girls school in northern UA where Russian troops had engaged in mass-rape of a whole slew of (9-13) little girls. They had stripped them naked, bound their hands, blindfolded them, raped them, killed them and then stacked them up like cord-wood. Dozens of little girls. Dozens of them. The boys they took elsewhere and shoved barbed-wire encased pipes up their asses. This is apparently a Russian pastime.

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 17, 2023, 01:07:08 PM
Quote from: Groggy on March 17, 2023, 11:37:43 AM
Quote from: DetCord on March 17, 2023, 12:27:23 AMMe and the boys got back in November. Some of us that is.

Welcome home. Thank you for helping defend liberal democracy against authoritarianism. Big respect.
Do you have any plans to write about your experiences in Ukraine?

Is Ukraine a "liberal democracy"? Asking for a friend.  :juggler:

Not even remotely.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on April 30, 2023, 03:30:46 AM
Quote from: DetCord on April 30, 2023, 12:47:45 AMI'm a full-blown alcoholic now. Like no shit, the things I saw in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, the African Horn and elsewhere simply pale in comparison. I drink myself to blackout status nearly every night. Here I was thinking that my Ranger and Sapper and prior-service Marine self was hardcore enough to run the gauntlet. I'm not. Not even remotely. I've always considered myself a war-fighter, it's all I've ever known. But the things I saw and experienced and did over there have utterly ruined me.


I am well into my fifties, we had our friend's son enlisting to UA, he was at Kharkiv front, got back a few months ago. I won't go into any details.

He's trying to get back into his life before, he's having professional help, he's seeing his peers, he's active in an informal vet's grouping, to help others who've come back.

I hope you don't have to do that alone, hopefully there's people you can talk to, to receive help, and maybe, one day, to help others.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on April 30, 2023, 04:40:03 PM
Powerful testimony, DetCord.  Thanks for having the courage to share those feelings here.  I'll refrain from offering up any cliches here for fear of presuming on the circumstances, but I'm sure I don't just speak for myself when I say that you are in our thoughts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on April 30, 2023, 05:13:36 PM
I don't know what to say Detcord.  I wish I was surprised.  One thing about studying history, I expect the worse from humans. I've had friends and talked to many that are where you are, mostly from Vietnam but even a few from the Holocaust. 

Stay strong.  We're all Grogs, we're here for you even if, in my case, I can only empathize.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on April 30, 2023, 08:34:28 PM
That's heavy detcord, your post kind of rocked me, had to read it several times.  Just so heavy to hear that from a guy with your experience.

Maximum respect for going to Ukraine, we're all pulling for you to overcome the darkness that followed you home. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on April 30, 2023, 09:48:09 PM
...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on April 30, 2023, 09:51:14 PM
well we are a support system.
so what can we do?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 01, 2023, 07:51:02 AM
a bit on soviet industry:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1505247886908424195.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 01, 2023, 11:08:18 AM
Disruption of rail and power lines behind Russian lines. Partisan activity?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-rocked-by-may-day-explosions-after-saboteurs-derail-train-carrying-oil/ar-AA1aABmg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=43d7b3a36e0d4543bdcd5344284d963e&ei=10 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-rocked-by-may-day-explosions-after-saboteurs-derail-train-carrying-oil/ar-AA1aABmg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=43d7b3a36e0d4543bdcd5344284d963e&ei=10)



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 01, 2023, 07:25:09 PM
 :shocked:
 this was a storage site for icbm booster motors.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1653147465250422787
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 01, 2023, 07:29:29 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1653183866243350533
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 01, 2023, 08:41:33 PM
Last two posts are incredible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 01, 2023, 10:03:45 PM
I agree. Stunning.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 02, 2023, 10:17:48 AM
War is grim business.  The videos remind us of that in no uncertain terms.

It's also not lost on me that it's raining in both film segments.  It looks like the rasputitsa might be lasting a few weeks longer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 02, 2023, 02:16:46 PM
Surprising move indeed !   Not world shocking but it is a change from previous resolution votes by China.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/china-backs-un-resolution-mentioning-russian-aggression-news-50321504.html

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/05/02/china-and-india-vote-for-un-resolution-with-a-reference-to-russias-aggression-against-ukra

China, which usually abstains from voting on any resolutions condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has backed a UN General Assembly resolution that contains tough language regarding "Russian aggression

In a surprising diplomatic move, China and India, two countries that have carefully avoided condemning Moscow for launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine despite repeated pleas from Western allies, have voted in favour of a United Nations resolution that explicitly acknowledges "the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine."

The reference is found in just one paragraph of a broader resolution that calls for closer cooperation between the UN and the Council of Europe, the Strasbourg-based human rights organisation.

The text, promoted by a wide group of European countries, together with Canada and the United States, received 122 votes in favour and 18 abstentions.

China and India, which have consistently abstained from UN resolutions focused on the Ukraine war that openly condemned Russia, voted in favour this time around, as did Kazakhstan, Armenia and Brazil.

Only five countries opposed the resolution: Russia, Belarus, Syria, Nicaragua and North Korea.

The vote, which took place last week, initially went unnoticed due to the resolution's largely anodyne content. But some observers were sharp enough to spot the blink-or-you-will-miss-it reference to the Ukraine war, which reads as follows:

"Recognizing also that the unprecedented challenges now facing Europe following the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine, and against Georgia prior to that, and the cessation of the membership of the Russian Federation in the Council of Europe, (we) call for strengthened cooperation between the United Nations and the Council of Europe."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 03, 2023, 03:10:37 AM
For some lighter watching, UA recaptures their position from a determined raccoon beaver polecat equipped with Sounds Of Death (chilling stuff!)  :HideEyes:

Apparently an endangered species, this one, so well done solving the conflict peacefully. Davai!  :ThumbsUp:

https://twitter.com/Justadutchguy/status/1652434853923528705
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 03, 2023, 07:49:48 AM
I'm glad you made it back safely Det, although I also realize 'safe' is a relative term under the circumstances.

I'm not sure what the Grogheads can do, since we aren't really organized as a support group, but I hope you've been getting private messages anyway from fellow vets who can drink with you, so to speak.

I know any contributions you made, helped save someone else back down the line, whether civilian or military, at least for a while longer; and I believe also even (in an admittedly backhanded way) saved some other people from the living nightmare of being the 'orcs' who would do things like that.

If you haven't done so already, you should consider contacting local press and news people to ask if they're interested in interviews (leading farther up the scale if possible), maybe also including any political leaders you think you can trust (if any). So many people do not really understand what is being fought for and against.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on May 03, 2023, 10:50:38 AM
Starfury is going to love this one. Cue theme from Benny Hill.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 03, 2023, 01:05:30 PM
I do miss that theme song.  I always felt bad that the old guy who was the #2 in those shows never got any name recognition.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 03, 2023, 01:33:16 PM
O snap:

Kremlin drone: Zelensky denies Ukraine attacked Putin or Moscow
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65471904
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 03, 2023, 02:13:51 PM
CLUE(DO) time.

Victim: Nordstream pipeline

Room: Library. (just outside island of Gotland)

Murder Weapons:
a) Three 250 lb bombs as picked up by Swedish sonars
b) Monkey Wrench

Suspects:

1. NATO Colonel Mustard.
2. Mrs White, Mrs Scarlett, and Mayor Green (three Ukrainian tourists with a rental sailing boat, from a Polish port.)
3. Russian Underwater vessel and surveillance "tugboat" SB-123 (from Kaliningrad, now identified at the spot, among other unidentified and identified vessels and submarines.)


Any takers? That you Mr Putin?

Mr Putin: NATO General! Mrs Scarlett and NATO General! Monkey Wrench!

Anyone else? Some interesting details if interested:

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1653642544683646978

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65461401
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 03, 2023, 02:37:38 PM
Quote from the Beeb article:

QuoteThe investigation by Denmark's DR, Norway's NRK, Sweden's SVT, and Finland's Yle focuses on the movements and actions of ships between June and September last year which they describe as highly unusual.
The ships are believed to include the Russian naval research vessel Sibiryakov, the tugboat SB-123, and a third ship from the Russian naval fleet that the media outlets have not been able to identify by name.

These were so-called "ghost-ships", which had their transmitters turned off. The broadcasters, however, say they were able to track their movements, using intercepted radio communications the vessels sent to Russian naval bases.

"The broadcasters were able to track their movement", right. Those are four Nordic state owned broadcasting companies. Which do not have any tracking tools, but states themselves do of course. British sources, too. Edit ie. they interview various Coast Guard etc personnel who instead of giving the SOP "No comment" answer for the classified stuff actually spit it out quite openly, in all countries. Which they would not do (in unison even) unless told to do so.

The smoking gun, as presented by DEN, FIN, NOR, SWE, in other words.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 03, 2023, 03:00:31 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 03, 2023, 01:33:16 PMO snap:

Kremlin drone: Zelensky denies Ukraine attacked Putin or Moscow
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65471904

I saw that.  The video I saw of this alleged attack is sus imho.  The drone exploded several feet above the Kremlins dome and the puff of smoke lasted for just a few seconds before disappearing into the wind. 

I think this was all staged to justify taking extreme measures at the yellow and blue country.  One of the bears ministers said that Z and his gang must be eliminated. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 03, 2023, 04:14:50 PM
one of the better theories about this uav attack is that it was done by russians as an excuse to cancel the May day parade for security reasons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 03, 2023, 04:32:13 PM
That definitely seems to be the most believable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 03, 2023, 10:19:16 PM
I think if Putin had planned it you would've seen him atop the Kremlin swatting down the drones with a Cossack sword in one hand and a Russian flag in the other. Bare-chested of course. I vote it's staged to make the Ukrainians look worse in the world's eyes. But so clumsily done that it'll actually backfire against them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 04, 2023, 12:15:36 AM
Or maybe it's just a red-flag operation to justify the use of tactical nukes on Ukrainian forces concentrating somewhere for a counter-attack?  The Russian decision-making apparatus is so screwed up that they're as likely to do something catastrophically stupid as they are to do something reasonable and competent.

It's just which brand of stupid they decide to employ...     :TimeOut:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 04, 2023, 12:51:55 AM
More clues for CLUE(DO)  :justice:

QuoteInvestigators in Germany have focused on the possible role of a sailing yacht called Andromeda and its six passengers, some of whom had Ukrainian passports, according to German officials briefed on the probe. Some analysts have expressed skepticism that a sailing yacht could have played a key role in such an act of sabotage—involving several explosions at an underwater depth of 260 feet.


QuoteFour Nordic public broadcasters have reported that at least three Russian ships able to perform underwater operations were present near the blast sites between June and September last year.

The ships included the Russian naval research vessel Sibiriakov, the tugboat SB-123 and a third, unidentified vessel, according to the Danish Broadcasting Corporation. The vessels sailed with their position transmitters turned off, but their movements were tracked using intercepted radio communications sent to Russian naval bases.


Gift link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-vessels-photographed-at-nord-stream-site-days-before-blast-9695bc70?st=nygq8zmrfrwvkrg&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 04, 2023, 10:30:44 AM
Re the UAV harmless explosion: at this point, I'd weigh culprit likelihoods in favor of the number of potential (or better yet actual) purposes any suspect could get out of it! e.g. if Uks can get 3 clear purposes out of it but the Orcs can get 5, then Bayesian weight toward the Orcs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 04, 2023, 10:33:34 AM
Meanwhile, out of curiosity, what's the current status on theories for who blew up the bridge? I think video evidence clearly shows something edging up under the detonated area moments before the explosion, but I'm unsure how clearly the actual detonation fits that vector (i.e. was that coincidentally something else? Or multiple explosives potentially or actually?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on May 05, 2023, 08:01:28 AM
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRe1Fb_Yb9zYb_Q1jowzV1JivB_4htKf_SMrSG9lIgHx_4kEpjujPUKaCOQ03VKN90BiOo&usqp=CAU)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 05, 2023, 08:43:40 AM
^Excellent  :emporerslightning:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 05, 2023, 09:08:36 AM
I'm thinking for the right price, we could hire this Summ-Bitch to fight for us. Everybody who hates Putin, imagine what it'd be like if this guy was in the Kremlin.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 05, 2023, 09:41:48 AM
And now they are publicly stating they are giving up on Bakhmut????

(https://redpepper.land/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/its-a-trap.jpeg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 05, 2023, 12:09:30 PM
Quote from: Windigo on May 05, 2023, 09:41:48 AMAnd now they are publicly stating they are giving up on Bakhmut????

(https://redpepper.land/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/its-a-trap.jpeg)

It might not be so much of a trap. 

They were being paid, by the mile to capture Bakhmut.  They will by May 10 accomplish that, they have functionally done so already. 

Wagner has by all measures accomplished what it was contracted to do and I feel Prigozhin wants to preserve his personal Army for the coming upheaval post Putin's death.

Of course it's also a play to get a new contract, more power, more logistical support ect. 

It also is a very public demonstration that Prigozhin doesn't do what anyone tells him, and he's not afraid of window adjacency. 

So, while I don't expect Wagner to be truly done with the war effort, I don't think this is some master strategy by the Russian high command either.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 05, 2023, 01:16:13 PM
Window adjacency?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 05, 2023, 01:19:17 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 05, 2023, 01:16:13 PMWindow adjacency?
In Russia, drinking tea, or being in a high-rise building with windows can prove fatal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 05, 2023, 01:22:33 PM
Ah

 :undecided:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 05, 2023, 02:06:48 PM
Also being on a yacht, as a popular recent retirement alternative.

Thus my occasional joke about how some Russian klepto-gang leader better watch out being near a window on his yacht!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 05, 2023, 02:16:25 PM
Associated Press weighs in on Pig'ozhin's mission accomplished position:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-is-russia-s-wagner-threatening-to-withdraw-from-bakhmut/ar-AA1aN1sN?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=33dcf02530d745cf8224b5a44abbc852&ei=39
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 05, 2023, 02:18:06 PM
Business Insider has more information on the remote-controlled armored Ukrainian minesweeping tractor:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-ukrainian-farmer-stripped-pieces-off-wrecked-russian-tanks-to-make-an-armored-remote-controlled-mine-sweeping-tractor/ar-AA1aN43Z?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d436a13ac0a548e8ab9f122b2247f4c1&ei=41
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 05, 2023, 03:05:16 PM
The Public Prigozhin Spat is interesting to see, at the very least.  It's too early to tell what (if anything) it really signifies, but it sure is fun to speculate.  I have no idea how many Wagner troops are currently in Ukraine.

Gus, as for your earlier question, we've noticed a high correlation among Russian public figures between window adjacency and altitudinal defenestration.

Even as these guys all take shots at each other, nobody's taking shots at Putin and nobody's taking shots at the justification for the war in Ukraine.  That suggests that there is still rigorous control of the Russian information space, even if it is being a bit more critical of the conduct of the war. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 05, 2023, 03:20:40 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 05, 2023, 03:05:16 PMI have no idea how many Wagner troops are currently in Ukraine.

Estimates are around 50k.  They likely are down to a 30k or so that are actually able to fight.

That number however mostly consists of conscripted prisoners.  The actual, capable, trained Wagner troops that have years of practical combat experience is around 6k.

So, if he pull his people off the line, that's significant.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on May 05, 2023, 03:40:28 PM
Just a thought, but could he be negotiating for a higher contract price rather than pull his troops off the line before an expected Ukrainian offensive?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 05, 2023, 03:53:57 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on May 05, 2023, 03:40:28 PMJust a thought, but could he be negotiating for a higher contract price rather than pull his troops off the line before an expected Ukrainian offensive?

That's not at all out of the realm of possibility.  It's my line of thinking as well.

However, another part is I don't think he wants his men in front of the Counteroffensive. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 05, 2023, 05:01:11 PM
No money in it.

Also I have read that the UAF is specifically targeting Wagner supply areas...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 05, 2023, 05:17:27 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on May 05, 2023, 03:53:57 PMHowever, another part is I don't think he wants his men in front of the Counteroffensive. 

I don't think he cares much about his men.  Also, there can't be too many left.  I've read reports that from all his 'recruits' (prisoners, ..) most are already casualties.

More than 50% in March : https://www.businessinsider.com/half-russia-prisoners-fighting-ukraine-killed-or-wounded-uk-intel-2023-3?r=US&IR=T

I guess he understands he can't win anymore so he looks for others to pin the blame.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 05, 2023, 05:22:56 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on May 05, 2023, 05:17:27 PMI don't think he cares much about his men.

Oh, I don't either. 

He doesn't want to be in front of it because he's using this as political capital.

Imagine it like playing a pick up basketball game, getting 2 points up and then calling it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 05, 2023, 05:26:24 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1654601847330549762
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 05, 2023, 10:26:54 PM
 :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1654279938495635456
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 05, 2023, 11:28:45 PM
 :idiot2:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1654589132851511298
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 06, 2023, 09:41:05 AM
I would think throwing the rubble would be more accurate and effective.  Although throwing defective equipment might be more satisfying.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 06, 2023, 10:37:07 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 05, 2023, 10:26:54 PM:ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1654279938495635456

So they think they need to go 'all the way to Lisbon.'  :ROFL:

You can almost smell the fear and desperation with some of these guys.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 06, 2023, 10:40:29 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 05, 2023, 11:28:45 PM:idiot2:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1654589132851511298

Looks like this is not his first dud RPG.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 06, 2023, 11:32:53 AM
In the 40s, Russian soldiers were reported to have advanced on German positions sometimes carrying rifles, and sometimes only carrying bricks and clubs.

In the 2020s, Russians soldiers advance on Ukrainian positions carrying clubs that have fins, guidance systems, inert propellant, and warheads capable of delivering a superheated plasma jet when functioning correctly. 

Thousands of dollars clearly went to line the pockets of one aristocrat or another to produce such an expensive club for the Russian army.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 06, 2023, 12:27:42 PM
You remember those Russian hypersonic missiles that can't be brought down ?

Well it looks like a Patriot missile just did it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/06/ukraine-downs-russian-hypersonic-missile-with-us-patriot.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/06/hypersonic-missile-patriot-ukraine-russia/

Ukraine on Saturday said it had used the U.S.-made Patriot air defense system to shoot down a Russian hypersonic missile in the skies over the Kyiv capital region — demonstrating that it now has the ability to thwart one of Moscow's most-feared weapons.

The destruction of the missile, reported to be a Kh-47 fired by a Russian MiG-31K fighter jet, demonstrated the potentially game-changing role of the Patriot system, which costs roughly $1 billion per installation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2023, 02:43:09 PM
so heres a question. 
when this is all over and done with how do we edit and publish this thread as a form of historical document?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2023, 03:18:03 PM
tis the season for new cope cages.  :doh:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1654807603170426881

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2023, 03:51:00 PM
this one is rough. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1654876524779118592
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 06, 2023, 07:00:13 PM
'Jesus,' on that last one.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2023, 07:40:43 PM
so PAC-3 Patriots can shot down hypersonic missiles?.............
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 06, 2023, 11:26:45 PM
Technically, a bird can shoot down a hypersonic missile if it hits it the right way...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on May 07, 2023, 07:39:25 AM
Declassified Documents Concerning Russian President Boris Yeltsin (Clinton Library)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fs7vJ8uaUAAJkfH?format=jpg&name=large)

Sounds like Russia would end up at this point sooner or later, with or without Putin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 07, 2023, 09:19:56 AM
^I think I read more of that conversation in Lenin's Tomb by David Remnick or Fire Bird by Andrei Kozyrev. Maybe a little in both.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 07, 2023, 04:01:08 PM
Putin's list of allies grows thin... (for now.)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on May 07, 2023, 05:49:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 06, 2023, 07:40:43 PMso PAC-3 Patriots can shot down hypersonic missiles?.............

I think like the T14 armata, things made in Russia aren't unstoppable super weapons like the Russians want us to believe.  Russians are great with arms show hype, seeing them perform in the world is an entirely different mater.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 07, 2023, 07:17:33 PM
^Most of the time, I agree with that.

Every now and then Russians build some legendary things. Like Hind helicopters.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 07, 2023, 09:12:16 PM
That's true. But I understand that things in Russia are now so bad, that broken clocks aren't even right once a day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 08, 2023, 04:02:19 PM
russian defensive works.
those fucks have been digging a lot of trenches.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1655584386601951238.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 08, 2023, 06:05:32 PM
I'm not at all disappointed in the Ukrainians, because they're fighting for their existence and so far they've more than held their own against a country 3 times as large with a gigantic army.  But I do wonder if the Ukrainian counteroffensive will come, or if it will live up to the hype?

They face an uphill slog against an enemy who's shown no hesitation to trade lives for miles.  We all know that's even easier on defense than it is on offense.  Europe and the US have both dallied in sharing the appropriate weapon systems with them on a timely basis.

I hope the Ukrainians kick the snot out of the Russians.  I'm just waiting to see it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 08, 2023, 07:11:37 PM
^I hear that. All we can do on the sidelines here is watch and wait.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on May 08, 2023, 07:39:20 PM
I think the Russian air is the main thing I'd worry about in the counter offensive.  I'd hate to see a brilliant Ukrainian break through get ground to a halt by unchecked bombing.  I'd feel alot better if we had gotten them those F16s 9 months ago, so they were operational now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 08, 2023, 10:20:52 PM
Yeah, I'm not sure that the F-16s are the answer to Russian air superiority, but I share your concerns about the Russian Air Force.  Wars are never fought by single weapon systems.  They're fought by complex systems of complementary weapons on each side. 

Thus, the planes you're talking about could be a deadly menace to Ukrainian tanks that make it more than 5 or 10 miles beyond the range of their SAM support.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 09, 2023, 03:14:44 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on May 07, 2023, 09:12:16 PMThat's true. But I understand that things in Russia are now so bad, that broken clocks aren't even right once a day.

According to this article (pic: @SovietSergey), no quick fixes for their arms production. Systemic corruption etc.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FvqfL9mWIAAMDw_?format=jpg&name=small)

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1655640529336426510

Threadreader: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1655640529336426510.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 09, 2023, 03:19:15 AM
Quote from: Skoop on May 08, 2023, 07:39:20 PMI think the Russian air is the main thing I'd worry about in the counter offensive.  I'd hate to see a brilliant Ukrainian break through get ground to a halt by unchecked bombing.  I'd feel alot better if we had gotten them those F16s 9 months ago, so they were operational now.

I wonder if the West modified MIG-29s (Poland etc) have shipped with some modern Air-to-air missiles, too
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 09, 2023, 04:39:00 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on May 09, 2023, 03:14:44 AMAccording to this article (pic: @SovietSergey), no quick fixes for their arms production. Systemic corruption etc.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FvqfL9mWIAAMDw_?format=jpg&name=small)


So, Kremlin May 9th parade. Since I am ahead of you in time zones, here's a quick recap.

First, no tanks, not Potemkin's, or other variants. I kid you not. Oh, one (1) T-34 so there was that.

In particular, no Airforce fly-over, no modernised T-72/T-90 tanks let alone Armatas, no BUK SAM systems, ... 

Next year: two tachankas?

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1655859486370811904
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 09, 2023, 06:21:08 AM
Ramping up my post count today perhaps, but just gotta make a note that the sole T-34/85 was actually an Ukrainian one  :Party:

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1655853333909843969


Here's a more thorough comparison how the vehicle count on parade has plummeted since the 2021 parade.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1655831503882932224
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 09, 2023, 07:26:54 AM
When people were quipping about the Ukraine conflict going back to WW1, I didn't think they meant going back to infantry backed by artillery, but here we are!

I'm legitimately a little surprised that they got some trucks for motorized infantry, as the Russian army already burned through their original stock of military truck transport last year. Next year: no mechanized infantry (those few BTRs scattered to lead other things were notable), maybe no motorized either!

The early joke in the thread about the drone attack not being enough to cancel the embarrassment of the parade, may well be on point!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 09, 2023, 09:25:28 AM
Yeah you gotta wonder if Putin's more worried about an, 'Anwar Sadat' type incident from anything with guns and cannons on it. I bet his Body-Double did the parade for him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 09, 2023, 10:16:30 AM
I recall one of Stalin's super-bomber prototypes was kamikaze'd by a private plane during one of his pre-WW2 parade days, because the pilot thought Stalin himself would be on it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 09, 2023, 10:41:17 AM
Watching that video clip with the ground troops and the IFV, I wondered how autonomous the IFV is during these engagements if comms with the infantry is limited.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 09, 2023, 11:08:28 AM
this post has more tanks then russias parade....

 :tanker1035:  :tanker1035:  :tanker1035:  :tanker1035:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 09, 2023, 12:07:14 PM
And the Wagner chief is back to accusing the Russian Army of deserting his troops' flank and starving them of ammunition.  While this dissent is hardly a sign of a well-coordinated military machine, it is clearly a machine that is functioning smoothly to keep Putin in power.

Which seems to be the primary goal of this whole murderous escapade.

I wonder why the West got so upset at Putin doing this to Ukraine, after we were so sanguine about what he did in Transnistria and Chechnya and even Syria? 

Is it the size of the land grab?  The ethnicity of whom he's doing it to?  If the Ukrainians hadn't put up such a brave fight, would we all be back to guzzling Russian energy and investing in Russia to maximize our economies?  Because, you know, sacrifice isn't very convenient...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 09, 2023, 02:27:11 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 09, 2023, 12:07:14 PMAnd the Wagner chief is back to accusing the Russian Army of deserting his troops' flank and starving them of ammunition.  While this dissent is hardly a sign of a well-coordinated military machine, it is clearly a machine that is functioning smoothly to keep Putin in power.

Which seems to be the primary goal of this whole murderous escapade.

I wonder why the West got so upset at Putin doing this to Ukraine, after we were so sanguine about what he did in Transnistria and Chechnya and even Syria? 

Is it the size of the land grab?  The ethnicity of whom he's doing it to?  If the Ukrainians hadn't put up such a brave fight, would we all be back to guzzling Russian energy and investing in Russia to maximize our economies?  Because, you know, sacrifice isn't very convenient...

And now Prigozhin has exactly what he wants, a seat on the military council and access to nearly unlimited supplies and supreme command of the Bakhmut effort. 

Prigozhin played a dangerous game but he had Shoigu and his staff in a bad position.  His threat to withdraw just before Victory Day was unacceptable and he essentially blackmailed his way into a stronger position politically. He's now a genuine player to succeed Putin. 

As for why the West is upset now and "not before"?  Well, there were voices quite upset before, but because of either self interest, fear or direct support for Putin western powers felt appeasement was the superior policy.  And yes, it was much easier to accept what the Russians were doing when they were taking slices of Georgia and Moldava rather than an entire nation that has enormous strategic value. 

There were voices in the US that warned about Putin after Georgia, they were largely silenced or made fun of by those in places of influence and told the "80's want their policy back".   But they said what we've seen to be true.  The Russians are, piece by piece restoring the Russian empire, and they have made it very clear what the extent of that restoration looks like. 

Anyone can read a map.  Ukraine unlocks the land bridge to Transnistria and then Moldava.  After that, where is he to go?  Some say he'll be appeased again, but others, that I agree with, point to the Baltic states, Finland, Poland.  Russia has claims there and it's getting close to time where the red line will be right up to the wall. 

Poland, the Czechs and Baltic States have been banging this drum for a while.  There's a reason Poland has the goal of being the largest and most advanced land army in Europe by 2030 and it's not because they trust NATO to defend it. 

And there's the practical.  Let's be real, there's no world where Georgia or Moldava can do what Ukraine has managed to do.  They have neither the population, infrastructure or geographic adjacency to fight Russia to a stand still.  Many didn't think Ukraine did either, but, check earlier in this thread, there were some that did feel it with the proper support. 

So, as red lines go I still think and agree that this is the only one that has a chance of actually stopping Russia before the wall is at the NATO borders.  The only other hope is that after a victory over Ukraine, Putin is satisfied and appeased as are the ultra nationalists that have his ear like Patrushev and Medvedev.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 09, 2023, 03:38:28 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on May 09, 2023, 02:27:11 PMAs for why the West is upset now and "not before"?   

   Probably lots of things made the attack on Ukraine look very different to the West:
1) Russia seemed to be over-extended...so maybe a relatively easy win
2) Russia had already taken a lot of Ukrainian territory
3) Ukraine held up well
4) NATO can't let the Black Sea area be an uncontested Russian Lake if they can help it
5) Russia seemed to be threatening NATO itself in a round-about way
6) Need to keep Belarus relatively neutral
7) All the weird, kind of crazy rhetoric coming out of Russia (suggesting panic or madness or something)
8) The need to show China things can get serious
9) But they can stay confined if everybody (except Russia) stays cool

and more I'm sure
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 09, 2023, 05:38:32 PM
^Belarus is next. Unless you count them as part of Russia already.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 09, 2023, 05:44:00 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 09, 2023, 05:38:32 PM^Belarus is next. Unless you count them as part of Russia already.

For all intents and purposes they are.  The Belarus model is what Russia wanted Ukraine to follow before the Euromaidan movement. 

If Belarus has its own Euromaidan moment, then yes, they'll be on the menu.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 09, 2023, 06:02:50 PM
^Just a matter of making it official...whatever that means to Putin nowadays. Moldova after that.

I still can't see Russia attacking a NATO member directly, though.

Then again the Baltics, Poland, Romania and now Finland seemed safe enough until Russia actually invaded. Less so now but an actual ground invasion of any NATO member just does not feel like a threat. Unless this whole war is a massive 'probing' of the West to test NATO resolve.

And if Putin thinks we don't have enough resolve...I suppose anything is on the table.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 09, 2023, 06:19:54 PM
The old Putin was given credit for being shrewd, calculating, and pragmatic.  The new Putin?  It's hard to predict what a crazy man is going to do next.

A recurring pattern we've seen over the last 100 years is that most tyrants underestimate the power of democracies, mistaking pluralism for disunity.  I'm not accusing Ukraine of being a full-fledged democracy--its track record there has been quite uneven.  But Ukraine's supporters are democracies.

I think that Ukraine's proximity to Western Europe is probably the single most decisive factor, along with Ukraine's ability to stand-up and fight successfully.

Had Russia attacked a NATO member-state, I think it would have been a whole different magnitude of whoop-ass that would have been opened on them.  I guess we'll never know. 

I do wonder if we'll see Poland wanting nuclear weapons in the next 20 years, or Germany wanting them in the next 40?  It may depend on whether Russia is beaten back from Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 09, 2023, 06:30:37 PM
^Good points on the nukes, I have not thought of a nuclear Poland or Germany.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 09, 2023, 06:46:45 PM
some things happened.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1656066969152507905

https://twitter.com/i/status/1656078138282061824
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 09, 2023, 07:17:43 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 09, 2023, 05:38:32 PM^Belarus is next. Unless you count them as part of Russia already.

Well, part of the West's motivation is trying to keep these things from running totally out of control.  It looks like
these assorted chunks of Eastern Europe are just not all that stable even in the best cases.  What if a chunk of Belarus started doing the
autonomous thing?  A nominally Russified Belarus is probably a more stable proposition than a fragmenting Belarus.  And of course, the potential fragmentation of Ukraine is something the Russians have been pushing and the same with Moldovia, chunks of Yougoslavia etc.  At least NATO can kind of keep a lid on that stuff and the Russians are playing the same game with only one terrible miscalculation so far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 09, 2023, 07:56:14 PM
^While balancing between fending off Russia and the total collapse of Russia, too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 10, 2023, 06:11:53 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 09, 2023, 07:56:14 PM^While balancing between fending off Russia and the total collapse of Russia, too.

There have been articles focusing on Asia lately that suggest that from China's point of view, Russia has already imploded in terms of who controls the balance of power in central asia (yep the remains of the Mongol empire are now more or less Chinese)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 10, 2023, 07:38:56 AM
I'm sure part of the difference is the question of operational support capability compared to the likelihood of aggravating a nuclear exchange. Even in this war, that was faaaaaarrrr from an unimportant problem! -- and might still end up going omelet-shaped!

If Putin's Knock-on-all-doors strategy had worked to psyche Ukraine, or at least its functioning government, into collapse, would the US/NATO have risked nuclear war (and definite default on various supplies provided by Russia) to save it? -- because NATO, or at least the US, would have had to counter-invade by land and/or sea to retake and secure Ukrainian land area.

We now have a better idea why Ukraine's control is an existential crisis for Russia, at least for the overall government structure (whether Putin or any successor like him) -- not because of a threat of NATO using the Ukrainian border as a Fortified Sector (in Soviet-style doctrine, although that's what Putin promotes his invasion to prevent), much less a threat of Nazis in Ukraine, but due to Russia's coming demographic collapse combined with all the other logistic collapses that an unfocused kleptocracy will naturally tend toward generating in its controlled area. Putting it another way, a kleptocracy always needs more to steal in order to keep surviving as such. (This was true about the prior Soviet Union, too, but they had more organization than the post-Soviet Russian regime(s), at least potentially and often actually!)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 10, 2023, 09:52:26 AM
I agree 100% with what Jason said.  Central European borders have been a bit more unstable than Western European borders for the last 75 years.  I'm hopeful that the introduction of modern, democratic systems is starting to ease some of that pressure, but it'll take at least one more generation to be certain.

Gus, interesting point about how NATO is trying to thread the needle between fending Russia off without fomenting a total collapse of the worlds largest (?) nuclear arsenal.

Meng, my sense is that Putin's latest stunt has doomed Russia to little more than vassal-state status for China within 20 years.  The presence of nuclear weapons will make it unlikely that the Chinese could actually occupy much territory, but they won't have to if the Russians are exporting them their oil, their wheat, their vodka, and their people.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 10, 2023, 10:05:32 AM
Interesting. We know Putin's in bed with Ping, but do we know anything about how the other major players in Russia's future, Putin's cronies, the Wagner guy, the Army commanders, feel about the new alliance with China? Isn't there probably still a lot of anti-Chinese feelings in the Russian hierarchy? Or has Ping's open pocketbook enticed them to a more friendly attitude?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 10, 2023, 10:23:10 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 10, 2023, 07:38:56 AMWe now have a better idea why Ukraine's control is an existential crisis for Russia, at least for the overall government structure (whether Putin or any successor like him) -- not because of a threat of NATO using the Ukrainian border as a Fortified Sector (in Soviet-style doctrine, although that's what Putin promotes his invasion to prevent), much less a threat of Nazis in Ukraine, but due to Russia's coming demographic collapse combined with all the other logistic collapses that an unfocused kleptocracy will naturally tend toward generating in its controlled area. Putting it another way, a kleptocracy always needs more to steal in order to keep surviving as such. (This was true about the prior Soviet Union, too, but they had more organization than the post-Soviet Russian regime(s), at least potentially and often actually!)

As a sidenote, there's still a substantial number or articles and opinions who speculate as whether Putin's behaving rationally (no, they say), if he's gone mad (sure looks like it they say), or what motivates him (impossible to tell, they say).

Why they would still view Russia and Putin in particular through a prism of a Western point of view, I have no idea. Or, perhaps, maybe they have no idea.

To simplify everything onto one sentence, Western PoV could be a valid one if we roll back the clock some 100+ years?

"Everyone for King and Country, it is our Divine duty to expand the Empire, the pagans out there will benefit from being under our rule, and if any one objects or heaven's forbid fights back well they deserve to be crushed, so the rest of them could be liberated from the miseries of the life they currently live."

I would wage Putin truly sees him as the czar with Divine duty to fix the mess that was the fall of Soviet Union, the latest version of Russian Empire. A good czar expands the empire while a bad czar allows it to diminish in statue, let alone in size.

For all I've read Putin is a shrewd person and a tough negotiator, and he's also laid out all this plain to everyone to see, from the 2007 Munich speech. Anyone in doubt, he's also followed in action of what's he's said.

Alas...

Quote from: SirAndrewD on May 09, 2023, 02:27:11 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 09, 2023, 12:07:14 PMAnd the Wagner chief is back to accusing the Russian Army of deserting his troops' flank and starving them of ammunition.  While this dissent is hardly a sign of a well-coordinated military machine, it is clearly a machine that is functioning smoothly to keep Putin in power.

Which seems to be the primary goal of this whole murderous escapade.

I wonder why the West got so upset at Putin doing this to Ukraine, after we were so sanguine about what he did in Transnistria and Chechnya and even Syria? 

Is it the size of the land grab?  The ethnicity of whom he's doing it to?  If the Ukrainians hadn't put up such a brave fight, would we all be back to guzzling Russian energy and investing in Russia to maximize our economies?  Because, you know, sacrifice isn't very convenient...

And now Prigozhin has exactly what he wants, a seat on the military council and access to nearly unlimited supplies and supreme command of the Bakhmut effort. 

Prigozhin played a dangerous game but he had Shoigu and his staff in a bad position.  His threat to withdraw just before Victory Day was unacceptable and he essentially blackmailed his way into a stronger position politically. He's now a genuine player to succeed Putin. 

As for why the West is upset now and "not before"?  Well, there were voices quite upset before, but because of either self interest, fear or direct support for Putin western powers felt appeasement was the superior policy.  And yes, it was much easier to accept what the Russians were doing when they were taking slices of Georgia and Moldava rather than an entire nation that has enormous strategic value. 

There were voices in the US that warned about Putin after Georgia, they were largely silenced or made fun of by those in places of influence and told the "80's want their policy back".  But they said what we've seen to be true.  The Russians are, piece by piece restoring the Russian empire, and they have made it very clear what the extent of that restoration looks like. 

Anyone can read a map.  Ukraine unlocks the land bridge to Transnistria and then Moldava.  After that, where is he to go?  Some say he'll be appeased again, but others, that I agree with, point to the Baltic states, Finland, Poland.  Russia has claims there and it's getting close to time where the red line will be right up to the wall. 

Poland, the Czechs and Baltic States have been banging this drum for a while.  There's a reason Poland has the goal of being the largest and most advanced land army in Europe by 2030 and it's not because they trust NATO to defend it. 

And there's the practical.  Let's be real, there's no world where Georgia or Moldava can do what Ukraine has managed to do.  They have neither the population, infrastructure or geographic adjacency to fight Russia to a stand still.  Many didn't think Ukraine did either, but, check earlier in this thread, there were some that did feel it with the proper support. 

So, as red lines go I still think and agree that this is the only one that has a chance of actually stopping Russia before the wall is at the NATO borders.  The only other hope is that after a victory over Ukraine, Putin is satisfied and appeased as are the ultra nationalists that have his ear like Patrushev and Medvedev.


Very well put, Sir, what's there to add?

If I'd again wage my 0.02 and speculate annexing Belarus and Ukraine back to Russia Proper were his minimumm objectives. Not real countries, not real cultures, not real languages, akin to Russian propaganda since 16th century since when they've claimed all Eastern Slavic history as history of Russia.

There were the editorials that were published the day after invasion, that were quickly pulled off, but not before the internet archive had seen them. Congratulations to our Putin for the historical deed of unification of Russia after the shock of 1991.

What would have happened next is truly a terrible question. If the unprovoked and brutal invasion of Ukraine would have worked out, and as we can speculate if the US and EU would have been presented with fait accompli, and if their reaction would have been again in the mold of what they were after annexation of Crimea, who'd know?

I mean, if NATO is this paper tiger, why not moving in to save the Russian speakers in the other frontline states (used to read: neighbouring states). Transnistria, Moldova, first. Caucasus, perhaps then. Then back towards Baltic, Finland, Poland? Would have been a terrible world order at that stage.

Not a happy post on my behalf but enjoying this discussion on realities on the ground.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 10, 2023, 07:33:19 PM
Meanwhile, in Poland...Kaliningrad getting surrounded by barbed wire, troops, etc. And...renamed?

https://bit.ly/41t53Mf

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 10, 2023, 09:46:42 PM
More drug-addicted Nazis' upsetting the Peace of Europe? Damn, don't those guys ever give-up?  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 10, 2023, 10:13:26 PM
whats a nazi to do in todays world?

oh right, rape Ukrainians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 11, 2023, 09:41:08 AM
Duh, Fury.  The Russians are only raping Nazi women and children.  Can't you keep your sides straight in this conflict?

It looks like the Ukrainians have announced that there will be a delay to their counteroffensive.  I don't question the strategic soundness of the decision.  But it would be nice if the Russian Army imploded. 

I hope this doesn't start to affect the resolve of Western partners.  Those who thought resisting Russian aggression would be a 1 to 2 year effort haven't paid much attention to European history from 1945-1991.

Of course, in all fairness, the Western Europeans did invade Russia for a couple years immediately after WW1. 

More than a century ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 11, 2023, 11:19:00 AM
We got pretty far, too! -- I have a book somewhere on Kindle about the "Russian sideshow" expeditionary force sent waaaay east to try to help support the strongest faction resisting Lenin's takeover.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 11, 2023, 11:32:02 AM
On Putin as the new Red Tsar: that's all true, but the situation is worse than that because Russia's internal situation is falling apart and there's nothing that can be feasibly done about it except get new population and resources under their control. And that will only extend the problems caused by Russia's government (and its imposed cultural problems) another 20 years tops.

Demographically, this is the final generation capable of acquisitional war (so to speak) for another 50ish years; and their internal problems will be aggravated by the same demographic collapse. China has been keeping an eye on this and definitely plans to take advantage of it in several ways, by a mixture of direct and indirect control.

The 'good' news (for want of a better word), is that China is also imploding in much the same way demographically, with much the same internal problems cascading as a result (also as an effect of their government and cultural problems, not least being their insane loan-sharking strategy to seize logistic transport and resource territories across Asia and Africa into Europe. Access to the Black Sea was one part of that "Belt and Road Initiative" plan.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 11, 2023, 11:56:17 AM
Looks like their, "Chickens have come home to roost". Or are coming home. Sometimes chickens can take a long time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 11, 2023, 12:03:27 PM
Meanwhile, who can save Russia from the Wagner Group now?!

Have no fear, Comrade, it is the NKVD or the 21st century equivalent thereof! Caps green, conscience clean!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12071401/Putin-prepared-use-brutal-security-services-stop-Yevgeny-Prigozhin.html?ito=msngallery

The article from the Daily Mail is suuuuper heavy on the ads and sidelinks, but it also has tons of detail (only a little involving the idea that Russian security forces may forcibly relieve the "chef" from command), so I'll quote some parts:

QuoteVladimir Putin is ready to use his brutal security services to 'put a stop' to his longtime crony Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Wagner private army, says a new report. The mercenary force chief appeared to brand the 70-year-old dictator a 'complete [Expletive]' and mock him as a 'happy grandfather' amid reports from the frontlines of a Russian retreat and Ukrainian gains around the besiged city of Bakhmut. Prigozhin hinted later that his foul-mouthed onslaught was in fact aimed at Putin's chief of the general army staff Valery Gerasimov, 67, who he blames for ammunition shortages at the front.

Another possible target was defense minister Sergei Shoigu, also 67, but many believe it was aimed squarely at Putin. Independent news outlet Meduza reported its Kremlin sources saying Prigozhin has now crossed a 'red line' in his repeated attacks on Putin's top brass and their failings to give his fighters ammunition to take Bakhmut. 'If this continues, official security forces will certainly put a stop to it,' said a source close to the Kremlin, reported Meduza. It was unclear if this meant liquidation – a fate of multiple Putin foes – or arrest, possibly for treason, which could see the 61-year-old billionaire warlord jailed for up to 21 years. The report says Moscow's propaganda agencies have already received a 'warning' from the Putin administration that if Prigozhin continues criticizing the Defense Ministry and reporting 'failures on the front,' journalists should begin 'portraying him as a traitor.'

Putin's administration will turn on him if he 'continues to break ranks.' The warlord has threatened to pull out of Bakhmut if his demands for ammunition are not met. This is despite Prigozhin reportedly still having the ability 'to enter into direct dialogue with the president,' his mentor. But other sources say Putin no longer takes his calls. The Wagner chief – whose mercenary forces operate not only in Ukraine but also Africa and Syria – is seen as being protected by close Putin cronies General Viktor Zolotov, head of the Russian national guard, and Tula governor Alexey Dyumin, formerly bodyguard to the dictator and tipped as a possible successor as president. But it is unclear whether they can now save him after his latest tirade. Meduza sources claimed Prigozhin's profanity-laden diatribes may be the result of frustration that he failed in a personal promise to Putin to seize Bakhmut – Moscow's primary target in its winter offensive and scene of the bloodiest ground combat in Europe since World War Two – by a certain date.

There has been speculation the deadline was May 9 – when Russia marked the annual Victory Day, commemorating the Soviet Union's defeat of Nazi Germany. 'Because of this personal promise, he's throwing the regular troops under the bus and making provocative statements. It's unconventional behavior,' one source told the outlet. It said 'multiple' Kremlin-linked sources said Prigozhin had crossed a 'red line' with latest outbursts. Prigozhin has expressed exasperation at the numbers of Wagner fighters killed – now lying dead on the frontline, or in graveyards across Russia – due to poor ammunition supplies. The warlord claimed the recent Russian retreat saw 500 of his Wagner forces dead – adding to the estimated tens of thousands already killed in Bakhmut.

In a recent video, Prigozhin delivered a message to camera in front of several uniformed corpses that lay on the ground behind him, covered in blood. A former convict, Prigozhin rose to riches by staging lavish Kremlin banquets for Putin – hence his nickname as the dictator's 'chef.' He also runs a propaganda empire including news agencies and troll factories pumping out pro-Putin social media messages in Russia and around the globe. And he is behind Wagner and several other private military companies in Russia. But there are fears he has become too big a threat, eyeing the Russian presidency if Putin is toppled due to war failures or falls due to ill-health. The main Russian push in Bakhmut has been by led by Wagner forces, mainly mercenaries, volunteers and convicts freed from jail to fight by Putin.

In a desperate attempt to seize the city earlier in the conflict, Wagner employed 'human wave' tactics, crashing unit after unit against Ukraine's defenses. Estimates suggest as many as 40,000 Wagner fighters were killed. Despite the massive push, Ukraine's defenders have managed to cling on to parts of the city and stopped Russia from advancing any further west in the region. News of Prigozhin's precarious position came after a Ukrainian unit said on Wednesday that it had routed a Russian brigade near the Bakhmut stronghold. The incident underlined the task facing the Kremlin as it carries out what it calls a 'very difficult' military operation. The unit's claim appeared to buttress the comments by Prigozhin, who on Tuesday said the Russian brigade had abandoned its positions in the city.

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who heads Ukraine's ground forces, said Russian units in some parts of Bakhmut had retreated by up to 1.2 miles as the result of counter attacks. He gave no details. 'The special military operation continues. This is a very difficult operation, and, of course, certain goals have been achieved in a year,' Tass new agency quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as telling a Bosnian Serb television channel. 'We managed to beat up the Ukrainian military machine quite a bit,' said Peskov, citing Russian missile strikes in Ukraine. 'This work will continue.' Peskov said he had no doubt that Bakhmut 'will be captured and will be kept under control.' He also said the Russian campaign in eastern Ukraine was proceeding slowly because Russia 'is not waging war.'

'Waging war is a completely different matter – it means complete destruction of infrastructure, it means complete destruction of cities,' he said. 'We are not doing this. We are trying to preserve infrastructure and preserve human lives.' Peskov's comments did not address claims that Russia's 72nd Separate Motor-rifle Brigade had abandoned positions on the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut. In a statement, Ukraine's Third Separate Assault Brigade said: 'It's official. Prigozhin's report about the flight of Russia's 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut and the '500 corpses' of Russians left behind is true.' A Russian brigade is typically formed of several thousand troops. 'Our army is fleeing. The 72nd Brigade pissed away three square km this morning, where I had lost around 500 men,' Prigozhin said on Tuesday, complaining his troops were receiving only 10% of the shells they needed.

Taking a quick break to snorf at Peskov's idea of trying to spare human lives and infrastructure in Ukraine, though admittedly Russia needs as much of that infrastructure captured intact asap.

QuoteIn a statement later on social media, Prigozhin said Wagner forces had advanced 170 meters (530 feet). Ukrainian troops were confined to an area of 2.25 sq. km. (just under a square mile) and were coming under pressure in western districts dotted with high-rise apartments. Ukrainian military analyst Roman Svitan said the successes near Bakhmut amounted to the beginning of the counter-offensive. 'We are the ones who launched the moves to advance,' Svitan told Ukrainian NV Radio. 'We can say that the offensive that we have been expecting for at least the past six months got underway about a week ago.' Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar wrote on Telegram that pro-Kyiv units had not lost a single position in Bakhmut on Wednesday. Russian troops invaded Ukraine in what Moscow calls a special military operation and initially captured large amounts of territory, but Kyiv's forces pushed back. Western officials estimate more than 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the war began on February 24, 2022.

In his evening video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky named the Third Brigade and noted its report 'about the flight of Russia's 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut.' In Brussels, NATO's top military official said the war would increasingly be a battle between large numbers of poorly trained Russian troops with outdated equipment and a smaller Ukrainian force with better Western weapons and training. Admiral Rob Bauer, a Dutch officer who is chair of NATO's military committee, noted Russia was deploying T-54 tanks – an old model designed in the years after World War Two. In Washington, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said he had authorized the first transfer of forfeited Russian assets for use in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 11, 2023, 12:12:20 PM
Too much text.....  need some graphics




Whoa! NEATO!!!

I count 4 MLRS doing ripple fire.

MLRS - A Haiku
by Windigo
Early night leaping
Surprisingly bright mlrs launching
under the rocket
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 11, 2023, 01:23:31 PM
That is a lot of rockets.  I hear that the UK has sent some volume of Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine recently.

These apparently have a range of 150 miles, which would be 3 times that of the HIMARS.  Of course, they're air-launched cruise missiles, so the Ukes will likely need to fire them from 50 miles behind their own front lines to keep the planes safe.  Still, it would be nice to be able to strike more deeply behind Russian lines.

There's no details around how many such Storm Shadows have been provided.

I wonder what the accuracy is of the reports that the Russians had figured out how to jam the GPS nav systems in the HIMARS rockets.  If true, the Storm Shadows might be a useful substitute.  If not true, the extra range would still be a nice pick-me up.

The aerial delivery requirement is obviously a downside, but if it can give the Russian Air Force one more thing to worry about, that's not a bad thing.  Especially if newly arrived Patriot batteries have pushed the Russian CAP back a little further behind their ground lines?  I know that the advent of Russian CAP with super-long-range AAMs put a serious damper on Ukraine's ability to do much with their own planes near front lines.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2023, 12:36:00 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1656671248536199171
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2023, 12:47:17 AM
interesting read from this guy.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1526477856821460993
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2023, 12:55:18 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1656631466564935680
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 12, 2023, 07:33:41 AM
At last! Some Nazis Putin can point to!?  :evil:

Ah well, in Ukrainian trenches, the bones of all troops become alike.

(I did appreciate the quip downthread of that Tweet, though: "But if they find some remains in a WW2 Soviet tank, that might have been from a few hours ago!")
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 12, 2023, 07:43:37 AM
A long article on a Navy SEAL who went AWOL and ended up in Ukraine. RIP.

Protagonist the one on the right. (added a picture to remind for the obvious that these are real people living and dying there)

(https://images.wsj.net/im-775708?width=1260&size=1.3333333333333333&pixel_ratio=1.5)

Gift link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/navy-seal-ukraine-daniel-swift-a97491cd?st=frxj6958kbafh3z&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 12, 2023, 08:05:28 AM
Man, the 11th Doctor jacked up for the war! (RIP Matt Smith lookalike.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 12, 2023, 08:07:12 AM
"The situation on our flanks is the absolute worst it could possibly be."

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13eragk/prigozhins_latest_frontline_report_the_russian/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 12, 2023, 08:12:23 AM
Speaking as a pretty conservative Christian who actually respects the Eastern Orthodox (at least in theory), I'm gonna say, "Spit. No way."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-is-floating-a-plan-to-build-a-village-for-conservative-americans-who-want-to-move-to-a-christian-country-and-are-tired-of-liberal-ideology-in-the-us/ar-AA1b5v2l?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1fef41b9ef9f4002a0ecc3ae30cfe0b1&ei=66

Anyone who falls for this kinda deserves what they're gonna get.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 12, 2023, 08:16:35 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2023, 12:47:17 AMinteresting read from this guy.

I imagine that these shows are choreographed based on the points that Putin wants to make.

The fact that the other commentators were letting the guy mostly talk, with only a few inane interjections, makes me wonder what the real message from the Kremlin is.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 12, 2023, 08:24:55 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 12, 2023, 08:12:23 AMSpeaking as a pretty conservative Christian who actually respects the Eastern Orthodox (at least in theory), I'm gonna say, "Spit. No way."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-is-floating-a-plan-to-build-a-village-for-conservative-americans-who-want-to-move-to-a-christian-country-and-are-tired-of-liberal-ideology-in-the-us/ar-AA1b5v2l?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1fef41b9ef9f4002a0ecc3ae30cfe0b1&ei=66

Anyone who falls for this kinda deserves what they're gonna get.

Potemkin Village 2.0
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 12, 2023, 08:38:32 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 12, 2023, 08:12:23 AMSpeaking as a pretty conservative Christian who actually respects the Eastern Orthodox (at least in theory), I'm gonna say, "Spit. No way."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-is-floating-a-plan-to-build-a-village-for-conservative-americans-who-want-to-move-to-a-christian-country-and-are-tired-of-liberal-ideology-in-the-us/ar-AA1b5v2l?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1fef41b9ef9f4002a0ecc3ae30cfe0b1&ei=66

Anyone who falls for this kinda deserves what they're gonna get.

Wait, you mean that Edward Snowden isn't living out his dreams as an ethical, intellectually enlightened American?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 12, 2023, 08:44:04 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on May 12, 2023, 07:43:37 AMA long article on a Navy SEAL who went AWOL and ended up in Ukraine. RIP.

Protagonist the one on the right. (added a picture to remind for the obvious that these are real people living and dying there)


RIP

It is so sad that this guy's memory will likely be lost in the cracks between the shifting slabs of global politics.

Reminds me that almost 90 years ago, another group of Americans (and those of other nations) fought Fascism in Spain; they were pretty much ignored and forgotten. Heck, because of post WWII politics and the Cold War, they were even sometimes seen as having been on the 'wrong side.'

I hope the world treats these guys much better.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 12, 2023, 08:54:08 AM
oops double post
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 12, 2023, 09:40:09 AM
Well, one reason the anti-fascist fighters in Spain were forgotten, was that once they arrived to fight under command of Soviet oversight (which any number of them might not have realized would happen), the Soviets took away all their identification and, in at least most cases, never gave them back! -- they became the basis for hundreds of false identities used by USSR agents during the Cold War.

The Soviet Union never gave up its original resolution to conquer the world, by force where necessary and possible, so it turned out there was no good side to fight for. Tragically, each side could validly appeal to the super-villainy of the other side to get good people to fight for one set of supervillains against the other set. (Arguably the same was true in fighting for the Republic per se against Franco, though on a much smaller scale than fighting under Soviet command. Lots of volunteers did arrive to fight for the Comintern per se, however, with whatever intentions mistaken or otherwise.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 12, 2023, 10:52:54 AM
Well said Brother! Let me guess. The price of admission to, 'Vladograd' is TEMPORARY military service? Followed by having your remains found 70 years later by somebody digging a trench.  :coolsmiley:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 12, 2023, 11:06:24 AM
Those shaping attacks by the UAF around Bakhmut are starting to get very spicy. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 12, 2023, 11:21:38 AM
'Shaping' attacks?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 12, 2023, 11:37:29 AM
Looks like the initial attacks are designed to shape the Orc defense, so to speak, as well as to position Uk assets.

The Uks have been VERY good about doing this so far.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 12, 2023, 11:48:37 AM
Ah...making the enemy do what you want them to do without knowing it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 12, 2023, 11:48:57 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 12, 2023, 11:21:38 AM'Shaping' attacks?

Prepatory operations that usually precede a major offensive.

Hit the enemy in multiple places, damage and degrade their prepared first lines of defense.  Confuse the enemy as to the true purpose and direction of the offensive. 

The idea is that you perform so many shaping attacks that when the actual offensive comes, it's lost in the noise and degrades the enemy's ability to respond decisively.  Preferably the enemy will have baited reserves away from the true intended axis of advance. 

Zelensky's announcement of a "delay" in the counter offensive is the political side of that.  There's no way to trust if that statement was true or not and the very fact that he made it should be suspicious.  If it were true, why announce it?  :magnify:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 12, 2023, 11:50:12 AM
I see. Your avatar is staring at me as I read the above, making it more...uncanny?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 12, 2023, 11:53:40 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 12, 2023, 11:50:12 AMI see. Your avatar is staring at me as I read the above, making it more...uncanny?

Frightening isn't it?  It sees you with its strangely not dead AI eyes that are partly my own. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 12, 2023, 01:14:34 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on May 12, 2023, 11:48:57 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 12, 2023, 11:21:38 AM'Shaping' attacks?


Zelensky's announcement of a "delay" in the counter offensive is the political side of that.  There's no way to trust if that statement was true or not and the very fact that he made it should be suspicious.  If it were true, why announce it?  :magnify:

I seem to recall a bit of Ukrainian razzle dazzle in the press before the offensives last spring / summer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 12, 2023, 01:48:48 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 12, 2023, 01:14:34 PMI seem to recall a bit of Ukrainian razzle dazzle in the press before the offensives last spring / summer.

Totally.  Prior to that offensive they overtly announced that the main counteroffensive would be towards Kherson and even launched a few very agressive attacks right into the teeth of Russian defenses north of the city. 

The real blow of course came in Kharkiv Oblast, and Kherson fell later after the Russians stripped their forces from the south to stem the bleeding. 

I made a few references to this back in the winter around when the leaks happened.  Everything has been pointing to the UAF counterattack happening in Zaporizhia.  The leaks confirmed it, the media confirmed it, Russian and Ukrainian milbloggers confirmed it. 

The Russian army obviously knows it based on the deep, sometimes 15 mile deep fortifications they've been digging north of Melitopol. 

Every single bit of military logic says that's where the blow should fall. 

Every single bit of military logic also said the Allies should've invaded at Calais, not Normandy. 

This is why I call what's happening south, and now north of Bakhmut "spicy". 

Could the UAF be adopting a U.S. Grant strategy, target the army not the territory?  Destroy Wagner, the VDV and the Guards formations as your objective rather than large, logistically difficult to maintain deep thrusts into fortified areas? 

We may be seeing soon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2023, 02:43:25 PM
the Ukrainians took 2km back in 2 days what took the russians 3 months to get.  ya, I'd call that spicy.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2023, 05:59:20 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fv7nYkfWAAMJLeF?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 12, 2023, 06:00:57 PM
The Russian MOD has spoken. 

They announced that they had ordered a routine withdrawal of regular Russian troops on the flanks of Bakhmut to more advantageous positions to regroup and best support the final capture of the city.

Must be really bad then.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 12, 2023, 06:04:44 PM
so when the Ukrainians capture a russian tank they go through the bins to see whats there.
evidently this tank crew really really likes elbow pasta!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fv8cA3DWAAo4Vle?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 12, 2023, 09:55:48 PM
Russia-a-roni?  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 13, 2023, 11:07:10 AM
so the Swiss amended their laws to allow for weapons transfers to Ukraine.
the Ukraine used Stormshadow missiles to hit deep targets in russia.
and russia shoots down 4 of its own aircraft in response.

Happy Saturday!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 13, 2023, 11:48:32 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 13, 2023, 11:07:10 AMthe Ukraine used Stormshadow missiles to hit deep targets in russia.
and russia shoots down 4 of its own aircraft in response.

Happy Saturday!

Weird choice of target to use these missiles on Luhansk.

Russian and Indian media are already running pictures of civilian buildings hit and claiming multiple wounded children.  They of course claim the target of the Storm Shadows was civilian infrastructure, a polymers factory and meat plant both bordering civilian housing. 

I would think that the Kaliber launch sites in Crimea would've been the logical place to deploy these missiles.     

EDIT: Well, seems true.  A few Ukrainian milbloggers report the plants had been converted to military barracks and housed Russian troops.  Their distance behind the lines and adjacency to residential areas was meant to protect them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 13, 2023, 11:50:23 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 13, 2023, 11:07:10 AMand russia shoots down 4 of its own aircraft in response.

Rumours of a third helo shut down as well. Clearly August 9 have come to say 'Hi!'

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ45AP_akAE6UMS?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 13, 2023, 12:02:58 PM
QuoteWeird choice of target to use these missiles on Luhansk.

the threads Ive seen allude to either a depot facility or barracks.

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1657057233497096201
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 13, 2023, 12:06:45 PM
Def Mon is pretty reliable.  also love the idea of decoys used to fuck with air defense.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1657049636333289475
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 13, 2023, 01:18:44 PM
There are times I am amused reading the Russian leaning magazines. 

Hindustan Times headlines today:

"Zelensky attacks his own people in Luhansk: Multiple children injured in strike"

"Russian Assault troops set trap, crush Ukrainian counterattack north of Bakhmut"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 13, 2023, 01:31:38 PM
 :evil:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FwBXkVlX0AE4CCv?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 13, 2023, 03:12:49 PM
Assuming the Ukrainians are able to hold that reoccupied ground, it looks like the Russian bulge to the SW of Bakhmut is either intended to catch Russian troops in a pocket, or to drive them further from the road in the South.  Are the Ukrainians re-securing the major southern logistical route back into Bakhmut?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 13, 2023, 03:52:53 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 13, 2023, 03:12:49 PMAssuming the Ukrainians are able to hold that reoccupied ground, it looks like the Russian bulge to the SW of Bakhmut is either intended to catch Russian troops in a pocket, or to drive them further from the road in the South.  Are the Ukrainians re-securing the major southern logistical route back into Bakhmut?


They look to be doing both. 

Clearing the Ivaniske Road makes sure they still have a clean line of supply and path of retreat from Bakhmut.  The push to the north is taking pressure off the Khromove Road. 

They're obviously also putting on pressure to try to create double envelopments and potentially position themselves to try to surround Bakhmut and trap Wagner. 

Whether or not they're going to commit the level of resources necessary to create a true double envelopment really depends on if this is where they intend to launch the counteroffensive, or if this is a side show to draw attention from somewhere else.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 14, 2023, 06:48:16 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 13, 2023, 11:07:10 AMso the Swiss amended their laws to allow for weapons transfers to Ukraine.
the Ukraine used Stormshadow missiles to hit deep targets in russia.
and russia shoots down 4 of its own aircraft in response.

Happy Saturday!

Sounds good.  If the Ukrainians have better targeting and better precision weapons than the Russians, maybe their offensive could get off to a good start just by destroying a lot of Russian forces without committing many of their own.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 14, 2023, 12:01:00 PM
As of today it looks like the UAF has largely halted their attacks on the Bakhmut flanks. 

More and more likely that these were the before mentioned shaping operations, not the main show and the primary objective, that was achieved was the opening of the Ivanske and Khromove roads.

Another thing that stands out, watching raw footage shows that the UAF units involved were not using the modern, NATO mechanized equipment.  A few western milbloggers misidentified the battle taxies the UAF were using as Bradley IFV's, but on closer inspection they're clearly using turreted M113's. 

Is this the counteroffensive?  It increasingly looks like it's not and that the UAF conducted shaping attacks that ended up being wildly more successful than expected.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 14, 2023, 12:38:01 PM
I'm guessing it'll be another few days before we have agreement on exactly how far the Ukrainians advanced (e.g., whether the map above is still accurate).

Serious question:  As the Ukrainian command, how hard do you try to win battles that will decimate Russian morale, versus battles that will inflict maximum casualties, versus battles that will maximize liberated territory?

It's a balancing act, obviously.  If the Russian morale totally collapses, the other two objectives become MUCH easier.  But, if the Russian morale didn't totally collapse in 1941, and if the "big collapse" last September only yielded 8,000 square miles and the Russians still hold another 40,000 square miles of Ukraine, what is the Ukrainian game plan to try to achieve their stated goals?

My sense is that you strike for a balance of all 3.  I just have no idea how Ukraine gets to the point where it can accomplish its stated goals of liberating all Ukraine.  Maybe the Ukrainian end state for now is to get something akin to the 38th Parallel in Korea, negotiate a ceasefire such that the Western embargo of Russia continues in perpetuity, and then seek membership in NATO?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2023, 12:52:13 PM
this ones for JH, try not to laugh.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1657700493605453825
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2023, 12:54:18 PM
QuoteSerious question:  As the Ukrainian command, how hard do you try to win battles that will decimate Russian morale, versus battles that will inflict maximum casualties, versus battles that will maximize liberated territory?

I think if you do the first two then the third is easy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2023, 01:08:01 PM
something good

https://twitter.com/i/status/1657607656985468928
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on May 14, 2023, 01:25:16 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 14, 2023, 12:38:01 PMI'm guessing it'll be another few days before we have agreement on exactly how far the Ukrainians advanced (e.g., whether the map above is still accurate).

Serious question:  As the Ukrainian command, how hard do you try to win battles that will decimate Russian morale, versus battles that will inflict maximum casualties, versus battles that will maximize liberated territory?

It's a balancing act, obviously.  If the Russian morale totally collapses, the other two objectives become MUCH easier.  But, if the Russian morale didn't totally collapse in 1941, and if the "big collapse" last September only yielded 8,000 square miles and the Russians still hold another 40,000 square miles of Ukraine, what is the Ukrainian game plan to try to achieve their stated goals?

My sense is that you strike for a balance of all 3.  I just have no idea how Ukraine gets to the point where it can accomplish its stated goals of liberating all Ukraine.  Maybe the Ukrainian end state for now is to get something akin to the 38th Parallel in Korea, negotiate a ceasefire such that the Western embargo of Russia continues in perpetuity, and then seek membership in NATO?

I think for the Ukrainians, the problem is that they cannot risk losing much of their army.  Meanwhile, the Russians have shown that they can lose army after army and it apparently doesn't make a lot of difference.
So, what to do: the low-risk strategy for both sides is to go on dumping as much HE as possible on the other side.  The Russians are hitting apartment buildings and the Ukrainians are wrecking another Russian army or two.   So the question is: how much longer can the Russians go on losing armies?  And this revolves back to whether a Ukrainian attack will accelerate the destruction of Russian armies.  The dynamic here strongly implies that neither side can afford a ceasefire, so the only possible outcome is the collapse of one regime or the other hence the Russian emphasis on attacking the civilian infrastructure and hence the fact that Ukraine can only undertake limited offensives.  What could change the dynamic is things like billions more support from Germany and the Swiss relaxing their re-export rules.  ie. as soon as the West recognizes there is no workable outcome except the destruction of Russia's last army, the sooner (paradoxically) the Russians might do some serious negotiating.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 14, 2023, 01:27:54 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 14, 2023, 12:38:01 PMI'm guessing it'll be another few days before we have agreement on exactly how far the Ukrainians advanced (e.g., whether the map above is still accurate).

Serious question:  As the Ukrainian command, how hard do you try to win battles that will decimate Russian morale, versus battles that will inflict maximum casualties, versus battles that will maximize liberated territory?

It's a balancing act, obviously.  If the Russian morale totally collapses, the other two objectives become MUCH easier.  But, if the Russian morale didn't totally collapse in 1941, and if the "big collapse" last September only yielded 8,000 square miles and the Russians still hold another 40,000 square miles of Ukraine, what is the Ukrainian game plan to try to achieve their stated goals?

My sense is that you strike for a balance of all 3.  I just have no idea how Ukraine gets to the point where it can accomplish its stated goals of liberating all Ukraine.  Maybe the Ukrainian end state for now is to get something akin to the 38th Parallel in Korea, negotiate a ceasefire such that the Western embargo of Russia continues in perpetuity, and then seek membership in NATO?

From what I've seen they advanced a bit further than the maps showed, but they "stalled" because they're only actually deploying two fresh brigades in the Bakhmut theater. 

They have apparently by all accounts allocated 16 brigades for the coming counteroffensive.  The two brigades fighting on the north and south flank in Bakhmut are not part of that force allocation. 

As to the question of the target, that's a good one.  Napoleon counseled that the target in war should be the army, not the ground (advice he forgot in Russia).  However, there are some very significant gains to be made by the UAF if they think logistically about cutting lines of supply either in the south towards Crimea or the North towards the railheads at Starbolisk. 

In the current case I think they should try to accomplish both as much as they are able.  But again, they must think with logistics in mind above all.  They can't liberate massive territories because, well, they need to actually keep their forces fueled, fed and armed enough to maintain combat effectiveness. 

This is why, in my admittedly armchair opinion, they should try to achieve great success in a powerful counteroffensive in an unexpected direction with fairly limited but achievable goals. 

Sometimes the political victory that's unable to be hidden is greater than what you can achieve on the battlefield.  Ask Giap about that.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 14, 2023, 02:46:31 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2023, 12:54:18 PM
QuoteSerious question:  As the Ukrainian command, how hard do you try to win battles that will decimate Russian morale, versus battles that will inflict maximum casualties, versus battles that will maximize liberated territory?

I think if you do the first two then the third is easy.

I would even say if you do the second one, then the first and third are easy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2023, 03:41:50 PM
related to yesterdays aircraft losses:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/arming-ukrainian-fighters-with-aim-120-missiles-is-a-complex-proposition
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 14, 2023, 03:42:04 PM
My instinct was to answer 'destroy as much of the Russian Army as possible' but as a few people mentioned above it doesn't really matter because of the Russian numbers.

I don't see morale mattering much either since Russian morale has not been much of a factor since the beginning of the invasion - Russia is basically a giant prison state now.

So how does Ukraine 'win' this? They have fought smarter and better than Russia from the first day but still Russia holds Ukrainian territory. Maybe more and more attacks on Russian territory at the expense of escalation? That doesn't really seem realistic either. None of the past year+ will matter if the Russians lose their minds enough to use nuclear weapons.

I dunno...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 14, 2023, 04:22:47 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 14, 2023, 03:42:04 PMSo how does Ukraine 'win' this?

Best question ever and I don't have the answer.

Some like Jordan Petersen and Russel Brand say, surrender and just let Russia dictate terms.

I'm more of the opinion that victory, as awful and costly as it is should be to keep making Russia pay, win local victories, and wait out Putin's increasingly limited lifespan.

I hate it, I hate everything about this war.  I wish it would end because I don't believe in an afterlife, I believe every life lost is wasted. I know I post here and do so objectively and academically and I'm a grog, I'm a wargamer, I play war.

But I know we have people here like Detcord and Jarhead and others that have seen the reality.

There are times, I see our discourse and think on All Quiet on the Western Front and Paul sitting in the pub on leave and seeing the old men talk about Flanders.

I hope we're not like that.  I don't think we are.  Just a moment of pause.  Every life is, to me, sacred.  Every moment we look at a map or see videos, someone who was loved, loved someone, had a life, ended. 

These are the things that keep me up at night.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2023, 04:30:07 PM
ah Gussypoo, moral means to material and three is to one.  it matters more then just about anything else.

I would also argue that russia does not actually have the numbers.  their demographics are horrid and they still need people to work and run the country.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 14, 2023, 11:06:23 PM
Russia is squandering itself, no doubt.  But they've only sacrificed the tip of the iceberg in terms of manpower they can slaughter on the Altar of Russia's Imperial Dreams.  My sense is that millions of Russian soldiers--maybe more--would have to die before Putin's dream is brought into remission.

In the last century, Russia has been willing to endure untold slaughter and widespread devastation in the name of their sense of nationalism.  The notion that 40,000--or even 200,000--deaths will begin to tighten the noose on Putin's regime seems to have no historical precedent.  I could be wrong, but I suspect the Russians would be willing to subsist on cold potato soup and a few shreds of cabbage for two years before they'd back down at this point.

And that doesn't even begin to imagine how many more civilians might die on either or both sides.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2023, 11:44:02 PM
this isnt 1941 and they dont have that kind of manpower anymore.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 15, 2023, 02:44:27 AM
snippet from an interesting NYT article:

QuoteIf Russia detonated a weapon, it would lose that jealously guarded treasure of superpower status. Such an act would constitute an admission that its army has been beaten — a tremendous loss of face.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/09/opinion/russia-war-ukraine-nuclear.html?unlocked_article_code=vj8CnfGssAy-sr0KJ9R7mTyxMsxxT7DVnQTdew2iwXsYSLLXTdojzu6folr4aLpDNOFl-ifjiukR6iSbOR_DhmYhgR8QNcGM4ta-FXgixNRfDvZHoI-6gNt0qOUF54wfaM_LtR3Ie0zKckiWDIBS5fuUbIWDNv-rpjEXw8jIU2U-WOEzt1DeVa2p9jlKpY6mDJYirzxqnRlDFW7GtEIH8BMrIjipDQBVOiLbU4BjGkHD_rEBOTscET88QEZANF2TRIoZ1mT-SLr-5Yzywksbbvl136FYRgYWLDnaOAbdcHej42FwM7pAbbnRZknFkHDlsm9bhb3pKL29UsAzafqTQ7vLJ_k&smid=url-share
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 15, 2023, 08:04:43 AM
^Well that is a glimmer of good news.

Morale on the Russian side, except for Wagner Group's morale, still rings hollow to me when Russia is being held hostage by Putin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 15, 2023, 08:08:31 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2023, 11:44:02 PMthis isnt 1941 and they dont have that kind of manpower anymore.

More importantly, they don't have the logistic backfield Stalin had carefully (and murderously) developed in the 15ish years prior to the Nazi invasion. Granted, Stalin had practically killed the Soviet Union to do so, in the sense that he had set up the nation to collapse and die if they didn't get more resources and means of production pronto (not even counting the number of his own people he had killed outright or indirectly condemned to death to get to that point). But Russia hasn't even been doing that since the Soviet government fell (or transitioned one might say).

The comparison does lead to a backhanded thought which will be kind of counter-intuitive at first: Stalin's Soviet Union survived almost unimaginable repeated military disasters (and related economic disasters) for several reasons, but among them was that Hitler substantially reduced (in various ways) the number of people Stalin's regime had to support with food, supplies, etc.

As Ukraine continues to score epic victories against Russia, they're ironically making it easier for Putin to put more of his reserves, such as they are, into the field despite his crappy logistic support. I'm not really worried about Putin mobilizing 5 million, or 3 or even 2 million more troops to throw at Ukraine, because doing so would absolutely wreck his nation due to its lack of ability to support them in the field (including by reducing non-combat backfield support by direct proportion). I've quipped before that I'd like to see him try because that would end the war, in Ukraine's favor, a lot quicker! But if he can dole out his reinforcement in a piecemeal fashion, within the level of his logistic support capability, that's more worrying; and there may be a window (albeit narrow) where whittling down his troops makes it easier for him to support his troops, which in turn is one important component for victory. Whether he has anyone statistically competent to figure that out, much moreso whom he'd be willing to listen to, is another question.

Of course, in that case, he'd be better off downsizing his crew on the front end to something his backfield logistics can support in the field without needing to take large numbers of his civilian support out of support at all, and then work with that -- putting it more broadly, he'd be better off setting things up so that he isn't constantly crippling his own troops' capabilities. But that isn't likely to happen: one main reason they started out crippled already, was (and still is) because of a policy of his regime to keep the military weak and terrorized against rising up to overthrow his regime! This is also why his troops are only good at acting like gangster thugs -- which was good enough to get some areas recaptured in past years, but not good enough to fight more professionally trained and supplied and motivated troops!

Lastly, on the question of whether Russia's population today can and will be able to go on starvation rations to win: I'm not sure, but past comparisons suggest they're willing and able to do that for defensive operations. Will they be willing to do that for conquering enemies? The real Nazis really were a VERY VERY PAINFULLY OBVIOUS existential threat to the Soviet Union and to the people of Russia, and that was a big motivational factor for the Russian people, including for tolerating their own murderous supervillain regime. I think Russia does face an existential threat of its government's own making, but marketing Ukraine as that threat has a lot of built-in problems.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 15, 2023, 08:37:22 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2023, 11:44:02 PMthis isnt 1941 and they dont have that kind of manpower anymore.
Just to be clear, they lost 20,000,000 people in WW2 and came away considering it a victory.  They only need to tolerate the loss of a small fraction of that to let this war go on for another 5 years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 15, 2023, 10:26:40 AM
Considering they have already couched this as a war against the west, I am certain they'll throw manpower at this and make sacrifices on the home front.

Won't do them any good though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 15, 2023, 10:43:54 AM
They considered it a win because they eliminated Nazi Germany as an opponent, recovered all their own lost territory, and absorbed all Axis territory east of Berlin (plus Berlin, plus a significant area west of Berlin). Plus Stalin's government not only survived but came out of it at least as strong as going in.

That's a very fair estimation of a win, even with 20 million Russian (and related) casualties along the way.

It also gives a good idea of the ideal win-condition for Putin. ...well, ideal would have been to do this with absolutely minimum Russian casualties in a few days or even hours (not counting mopping up actions against partisans), but that didn't work so an ideal win regardless of casualties would be taking all Ukrainian territory, resources (including human), and means of production under control, while at least being in a feasible position to crush the enemy classes with an iron hand.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 15, 2023, 05:33:33 PM
pretty sure I posted this before.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/russian-limitless-manpower-myth-russia-170000026.html

nope, that wasnt it, continuing to look for it....

much better article:

https://jamestown.org/program/russian-armed-forces-faces-severe-demographic-challenges/

and a good sub-link from the above article:

https://jamestown.org/program/5-million-fewer-than-in-2010-ethnic-russians-make-up-only-72-percent-of-russias-population/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 15, 2023, 06:02:22 PM
Relatedly, hey Peter, what happened to those 500K+ troops you were just sure would be on the frontline as a gamechanger for Russia by the time the Uks were ready for a counteroffensive?


Oh, they never existed at all because Putin was lied to! Plausible. (See Star's links above.)

Also, as you know very well, Peter, Russia doesn't have the logistics to field them anywhere, much less at the front line. So there's that, too.

It's still a good view with good points.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 15, 2023, 07:36:13 PM
https://armyinform-com-ua.translate.goog/2023/05/15/cze-mij-300-j-bojovyj-vylit-kozhnogo-razu-dumayu-chy-povernus/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US

if that doesnt work heres the copy paste.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FwMryn-WIBEgiKT?format=jpg&name=small)

- Morning. Just 40 minutes ago I returned from a combat mission... It was my three hundredth combat sortie. If someone thinks that this is something to be proud of, then you are wrong. Emotions are completely different... Every time you feel fear, every time before take-off you think whether you will turn around this time, or maybe this is the last flight...

This is how Lieutenant Colonel Rostyslav Lazarenko, a Ukrainian military attack pilot, describes his jubilee flight.

He emphasizes that the number of sorties with combat use is not at all something he would like to be proud of. But the ZSU pilot confidently came close to the record of the legendary ace Ivan Kozhedub. Currently, this is the largest personal number among pilots of all Air Forces.

- Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, we have not had the same flights. Some sorties I just don't want to remember, but they still come in my dreams with the guys I lost in battle. I will never forget  Danya Murashkomanaged to shout "I deflected", and in a moment I saw a missile hit in the mirror, we were flying as a pair... And this is only one of three hundred sorties... Or when I was opened fire from literally everything, when I was destroying columns and only after returning, I understood , that my Su-25 is damaged beyond repair... Obviously, a normal person would run away from all this, but not you. You must be here, you must lead into battle, because there, at the front, our soldiers are waiting for you, holding the line of defense until the last breath, and they also want to live, they are also tired of this war, but they stand, and we have to, because behind us are our families, all of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.

The lieutenant colonel said that he and his colleagues had repeatedly discussed in the team: "What are we working for?" And the answer is obvious to everyone.

- In order to stay alive? Of course, everyone has this desire, but no! To save as many soldiers as possible, to help them, so that this scumbag, or whatever you call them, does not spread across our land. If we destroy even one occupier, he will no longer be able to kill our boys and girls. And if we take dozens, and sometimes hundreds, in one flight, how many of our own do we save? And it is much more difficult for us on the front line... We flew in, worked out and returned to relative safety, while they are under constant fire. That's why he got himself together again, took the school bus and quickly got on the plane, because they were already waiting for you there...

PS Lt. Col. Rostyslav Lazarenko was one of the first to be awarded the Cross of Military Merit, is a Knight of the Order of Bohdan Khmelnytskyi of three degrees, a Knight of the Order of "For Courage" of the III degree.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 15, 2023, 07:37:51 PM
if a shitter su-25 can be useful why not A-10s?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on May 15, 2023, 08:27:47 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 15, 2023, 02:44:27 AMsnippet from an interesting NYT article:

QuoteIf Russia detonated a weapon, it would lose that jealously guarded treasure of superpower status. Such an act would constitute an admission that its army has been beaten — a tremendous loss of face.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/09/opinion/russia-war-ukraine-nuclear.html?unlocked_article_code=vj8CnfGssAy-sr0KJ9R7mTyxMsxxT7DVnQTdew2iwXsYSLLXTdojzu6folr4aLpDNOFl-ifjiukR6iSbOR_DhmYhgR8QNcGM4ta-FXgixNRfDvZHoI-6gNt0qOUF54wfaM_LtR3Ie0zKckiWDIBS5fuUbIWDNv-rpjEXw8jIU2U-WOEzt1DeVa2p9jlKpY6mDJYirzxqnRlDFW7GtEIH8BMrIjipDQBVOiLbU4BjGkHD_rEBOTscET88QEZANF2TRIoZ1mT-SLr-5Yzywksbbvl136FYRgYWLDnaOAbdcHej42FwM7pAbbnRZknFkHDlsm9bhb3pKL29UsAzafqTQ7vLJ_k&smid=url-share


I'm suprised to see the NYT publish a thoroughly clear headed analysis on this subject for a change. Snyder knows his stuff so of course it's a guest essay.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 15, 2023, 10:30:03 PM
read

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/15/ukraine-counteroffensive-timing-success/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJpZCI6IjQzNzQ2NzEiLCJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNjg0MTIzMjAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNjg1NDE5MTk5LCJpYXQiOjE2ODQxMjMyMDAsImp0aSI6IjYwYjAyMTJhLWY2YjYtNDk0Zi1hZDVlLTNhNTg5YmVjM2ViZiIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9vcGluaW9ucy8yMDIzLzA1LzE1L3VrcmFpbmUtY291bnRlcm9mZmVuc2l2ZS10aW1pbmctc3VjY2Vzcy8ifQ.SvYBqstYKXBqZ2p6gN7hnozAS2E-xK5qJUYJ5FPBqJA
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on May 15, 2023, 10:59:45 PM
After my initial post here (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=26039.6915), and then dipping out, I thought it best to speak about my experiences downrange. After having retreated to Montana with some fellow UA vets for over a month, those I served with and a few I didn't, it helps me to do so and it helps to push past the near constant flow of propaganda from both sides.  

So, if you have any questions that won't violate CO&T OPSEC I'll do my best to answer them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2023, 12:50:56 AM
hows it going
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 16, 2023, 07:21:50 AM
^ Best question! -- though very wide scope.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 16, 2023, 07:36:26 AM
Lt Gen Hertling's estimate from the WaPo article Star linked to a little earlier: "The Russians may have an advantage in occupying these static defensive positions, but only if their soldiers decide to fight."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-taking-over-from-wagner-in-bakhmut-are-abandoning-their-positions-ukrainian-officer-claims-as-soon-as-they-are-afraid-they-just-run/ar-AA1bfRD8?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=ae2385160f93408fb2591c7f893076b9&ei=66

(BI is citing a London Times article which is itself behind a paywall.)

QuoteThe head of intelligence for Ukraine's 228th Battalion, who goes by the call sign "Zulu," said Ukraine's efforts have been aided by soldiers from the traditional Russian military taking over from the mercenary force.

"As soon as Wagner left and the regular Russian troops stepped in, they abandoned their positions," he said, adding: "The Wagner fighters would hold positions until the very end. Many of them were prisoners, right? So they knew it was either fight or go back to prison." [...]

Zulu said that Russian soldiers "have no motivation. They don't understand what they are doing here. So as soon as they are afraid, they just run." [...]

Ukraine's 228th Battalion recently withdrew from Bakhmut, the Times reported.

Kostiantyn Zhydkov, the commander of the 228th Battalion, described the brutality of the fighting to the Times: "I haven't seen anything as terrifying as this during the entire war."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 16, 2023, 10:54:24 AM
I'm thinking the Wagner guy's constant bitching and complaining about not enough ammo and support is a great excuse to get his men's asses out of Dodge City before the storm hits. It shows he may have a little sense after all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 16, 2023, 12:19:12 PM
Remember when a Uk battalion's company surrendered at Mauripol?

They didn't surrender voluntarily, but were tricked by treachery in a commander changing sides (apparently):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/commander-linked-to-capture-of-277-ukrainian-military-personnel-in-mariupol-charged-with-high-treason/ar-AA1bfH5h?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=3bfe1be474fe41c3ba55c181b32b4221&ei=49
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 16, 2023, 01:08:15 PM
In the old days, academics and intelligence experts called the whole process of trying to figure out what was going on inside the Soviet political hierarchy "crypto-politics".  Seeing who was standing next to Khrushchev at particular parades or ceremonies was used to infer who might have more power or legitimacy within the Politburo at the moment, which was used to try to predict what policy decisions might occur in particular spheres.  It was also used to try to predict who might be the next-in-line if a current Soviet Premier died.

I heard an interview earlier this year with the guy who was the CIA Station Chief for Russia for over a decade back during the Cold War, and he said, "The only thing that has remained predictable about Russia is its ability to perpetually surprise you more than you thought you could be surprised."

I don't think anybody knows what the power dynamics or decision making is like within the Russians Halls of Power.  Trying to infer motive--much less ability--from some of the comments coming out of Russian state press, Russian leaders, etc. is a total guessing game.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 16, 2023, 01:26:41 PM
^ This is entirely true.  One thing that you learn about studying Russian history and politics is the only thing predictable is its total unpredictability. 

The thing is, not even the Russians know who is in line, who is close to taking or keeping power, who is safe and who isn't.  I think of Alexander's death whenever I think of the parting of every Russian strongman.  In the end the one who will succeed is "The strongest". 

This stuff goes back even to the Tsars. 

There's a reason Prigozhin is keeping himself near the front line surrounded by his loyal men.  I don't think even he knows 100% where he really stands.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 16, 2023, 01:28:59 PM
Russia: BE FEARED OF OUR HYPERSOUNDIC SPEARS OF UNSTOPPING!!  :RockOn:

Ukraine: yeah, working on that...



Quote from: SirAndrewD on May 16, 2023, 01:26:41 PMThere's a reason Prigozhin is keeping himself near the front line surrounded by his loyal men.  I don't think even he knows 100% where he really stands.

"If I blow out all windows in Ukraine, I am not standing near windows."  :pirate:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 16, 2023, 07:36:49 PM
I never thought of this war in Alexandrian terms, especially on the Russian side, but reading a lot of ancient history now...it kinda works.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2023, 08:44:19 PM
seems a game of missile command in happening over Kiev.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 17, 2023, 07:55:09 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on May 16, 2023, 01:26:41 PM^ This is entirely true.  One thing that you learn about studying Russian history and politics is the only thing predictable is its total unpredictability. 

The thing is, not even the Russians know who is in line, who is close to taking or keeping power, who is safe and who isn't.  I think of Alexander's death whenever I think of the parting of every Russian strongman.  In the end the one who will succeed is "The strongest". 

This stuff goes back even to the Tsars. 

There's a reason Prigozhin is keeping himself near the front line surrounded by his loyal men.  I don't think even he knows 100% where he really stands.

Seems a proper bulldogs-under-a-carpet brew is being cooked as we speak. Corpses of smaller players have been hurled out, defenestrated, or committed a suicide with their family, but it is difficult to know what is a power play and what is part of the mafia turf wars that surface once and a while, too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 17, 2023, 11:34:48 AM
Oh boy, Kadryov must be upset that he hasn't been in the spotlight. 

He just made a, almost commercial, for the T-72 claiming "On such a tank we will enter Kyiv and carry out denazification, simultaneously splitting the Abrams like nuts!"

Full story here  https://m.jpost.com/international/article-743216/amp

Never mind the horrifying idea of Chechens taking Kyiv and performing what they would term as "denazification".   The idea that they can even get to Kyiv let alone have T-72's brush aside Abrams with ease is almost Baghdad Bob level.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 17, 2023, 12:28:15 PM
Speaking of "Alexandrian"...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/belarus-leader-and-putin-ally-alexander-lukashenko-rumored-dead-following-sudden-hospitalization/ar-AA1bdGD6?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=bf2ff687afef4121bc0356d6e6938f5f&ei=77

QuoteIn a sudden development to come just days after Putin placed ten nuclear aircraft carriers in Belarus amid Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, Lukashenko was reportedly rushed to the hospital and is rumored to be seriously ill, in a coma, or deceased.

Well, if I tyrannized White Russia, and Russia put ten nuclear aircraft carriers into my landlocked country, I'd probably rush to the hospital, too!  :uglystupid2:

(Aside from the serious story, I thought the phraseology glitch was highly amusing.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 17, 2023, 01:58:56 PM
I'm guessing radiation posioning from inspecting those nuclear aircraft carriers!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 17, 2023, 02:13:47 PM
Or fell out of a window from a multi-story building onto a bullet which lodged into his head.  :shocked:  Genius to hide Nuclear Aircraft Carriers in Belarus where NOBODY would look for them.  :uglystupid2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 17, 2023, 05:09:42 PM
 :shocked:
gonna have to click on this one but its good and everyones ok.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1658879443304169472
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 17, 2023, 07:32:31 PM
Zeihan's short analysis of current Bahkmut is pretty good:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 17, 2023, 07:43:27 PM
Business Basics (which occasionally checks in on the war from economic perspectives), looks at the confusing question of whether Russia is running out of soldiers or not.

Demographic shifts are a big factor.


Here is the related episode mentioned at the end, on the question of whether Russia is running out of tanks:


(Both answers in the end are 'yes', but more clearly in the latter case.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 17, 2023, 07:49:37 PM
The Youtube arm of the mil-ops magazine "Task and Purpose", discusses Russia's economic expansion (and so also its military expansion!) into its Arctic areas. Thanks global warming!? (Though I don't recall hearing that Russia's 'Northwest Passage' has actually opened up yet. North America's hasn't.)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on May 17, 2023, 11:17:33 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2023, 12:50:56 AMhows it going

Livin'.

Learned that one of the Bn's we were attached to for a short while was nearly and completely obliterated. 70%+ causality ratio for them. No idea what that ratio entails with regards to WIA and KIA, though its probably evenly matched. A lot of UKR units are being completely destroyed and reformed with the greenest of green conscripts, but at least they're making an effort to delineate experienced NCO's and officers among them.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on May 18, 2023, 06:34:43 AM
Quote from: DetCord on May 17, 2023, 11:17:33 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2023, 12:50:56 AMhows it going

Livin'.

Learned that one of the Bn's we were attached to for a short while was nearly and completely obliterated. 70%+ causality ratio for them. No idea what that ratio entails with regards to WIA and KIA, though its probably evenly matched. A lot of UKR units are being completely destroyed and reformed with the greenest of green conscripts, but at least they're making an effort to delineate experienced NCO's and officers among them.   

Amazing...from the mainstream news and constant feed of little twitter videos and links in this thread, you'd think Ukraine was on the verge of marching victoriously into Moscow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 18, 2023, 08:04:19 AM
I certainly understand the importance of keeping morale up -- I've done my share of posting vids and articles along that line, too -- but reality checks are also helpful and morally justified. And hard to come by in this war, despite modern technology.

We can only make use of what we get, so thanks for sharing any hard news, Det, especially where the news is tragic for you.


As I pray every day, in one way or another, today for the souls of both the survivors and the departed, in honor of the sacrifices they have made: may God Who shares in all our suffering, even to the death, be with them, to strengthen them and those who love them with life beyond our lives, and bring us all home in the end, so that in a day to come we may all live together in peace -- however long that takes, even into the eons of the eons, reconciling us all with each other, whether in the heavens or in the earth, saving us with God's own life.

Another day of pain in our souls and our bodies right now, in which we also grievously share in various ways -- another day sooner to come. Out of our sins against each other, and into (and for and by) the Truth and the Life, may we all be saved, with no one left behind. God help us to see and to do our duty today, as small or as great as that may be, giving our own lives, to and for others, as God gives to us all. Freely given, we have received; help us be giving, freely given: loving our enemies, too, as much as we can, beyond what we naturally can, even if we must fight them for now -- may we be strengthened with chivalrous honor, for the sake of those we love, for those who love us, too, and even for our enemies, today and in the day to come, for as long as it is called Today!


Det, if you have a war charity you particularly like, let us know how we can give or otherwise work (since work is also prayer! -- including for people who cannot pray, for any of various reasons.)

And thank you for your own service.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 18, 2023, 09:38:59 AM
Meanwhile, in some war news today: apparently a key logistic rail line in the Crimea is tired of the war!

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/18/7402716/

While it could be sabotage, Andrii Yusov, representative of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, chalks it up publicly to the rail line simply being worn out with heavy usage beyond its weight limit.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-intelligence-reacts-to-railway-explosion-in-crimea-railway-lines-got-tired/ar-AA1blO4e?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6dc4b856798140ac9ad1038f2779137e&ei=58


This reminds me that I've heard different things about the rail line of the Kersh bridge having been put back in action pretty quickly: yes, technically true, but not enough to rail war logistics across to the front line. Any updates or clarifications on that?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 18, 2023, 09:47:59 AM
Nazi Drug-Addiction appears to be spreading.   :stormtrooper2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 18, 2023, 12:33:44 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on May 18, 2023, 09:47:59 AMNazi Drug-Addiction appears to be spreading.   :stormtrooper2:

and an example would be........
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 18, 2023, 12:42:30 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on May 18, 2023, 06:34:43 AMAmazing...from the mainstream news and constant feed of little twitter videos and links in this thread, you'd think Ukraine was on the verge of marching victoriously into Moscow.

Ukraine can both be winning and suffering casualties at the same time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 18, 2023, 01:39:57 PM
Quote from: DetCord on May 17, 2023, 11:17:33 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 16, 2023, 12:50:56 AMhows it going

Livin'.

Learned that one of the Bn's we were attached to for a short while was nearly and completely obliterated. 70%+ causality ratio for them. No idea what that ratio entails with regards to WIA and KIA, though its probably evenly matched. A lot of UKR units are being completely destroyed and reformed with the greenest of green conscripts, but at least they're making an effort to delineate experienced NCO's and officers among them.   

Ahhh the army's reward for being good at your job and surviving - throw you back into the suck again, but with greener troops under your command. I want to have a drink just thinking about it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 18, 2023, 02:01:08 PM
Det, what they all said.  I'd like to echo Jason's ask for any charities recommendations you might have, whether they benefit Ukrainian charities, US-based veterans charities, or both.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 18, 2023, 02:10:46 PM
We all know about "the fog of war". 

But there also seems to be "a fog of Russian government", where it's hard to say anything at all conclusive about what anything we hear or see from any member of the Russian government means. 

Last but not least, these days we seem to have "a fog of Internet news", where portal site algorithms have gone berserk trying to put us in Echo Chambers where we only hear the viewpoints we already clicked on in the last 3 months, in an effort to sell us more advertising.

Put these all together, and I'm dealing with "the fog of war involving Russian government via Internet news".  I assume something that I've read is true and accurate, but I'm not sure what.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 18, 2023, 02:43:59 PM
my twitter feed for the last 6 months has been mostly pro russian bs. groups or people that I followed daily now have be directly searched for.  good think elon is neutral and non biased.   :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on May 18, 2023, 02:45:49 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 18, 2023, 02:43:59 PMmy twitter feed for the last 6 months has been mostly pro russian bs. groups or people that I followed daily now have be directly searched for.  good think elon is neutral and non biased.   :rolleyes:

Yeah. For shame. The audacity to not censor opinions you may disagree with.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 18, 2023, 02:55:01 PM
I dont mind a difference of opinion JH.  thats the other sides playbook. 

https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-us-could-train-ukrainian-pilots-to-fly-f-16s-in-4-months-184136820.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 18, 2023, 06:09:14 PM
I think Star's complaint was that Twitter has downgeared groups and people on the pro-Uk side which used to show up regularly, too, but which he now has to actively search for.

Meanwhile:

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 18, 2023, 12:33:44 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on May 18, 2023, 09:47:59 AMNazi Drug-Addiction appears to be spreading.   :stormtrooper2:

and an example would be........

My educated guess would be that Slash means the train in Crimea running off the rails with some kind of attendant explosion: the joke would be that the 'Nazi Drug Addiction' supposedly pandemic in Ukraine, according to Russian propaganda, has spread into formerly-Ukrainian-Crimea, causing the derail.

That's the only thing that makes sense to me; if I'm wrong, I still appreciated what I thought was the joke!  :cheerswine:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 18, 2023, 06:23:00 PM
Exactly. Maybe I should've referenced, 'careless smoking' to make it plainer for Star. The more pertinent question is, was the train blown-up by Ukrainian Commando types or locals sick of the Big Bear sitting on their chests? I'm hoping commandos would've done a more through job of it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on May 18, 2023, 09:15:25 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 18, 2023, 02:43:59 PMmy twitter feed for the last 6 months has been mostly pro russian bs. groups or people that I followed daily now have be directly searched for.  good think elon is neutral and non biased.   :rolleyes:

Seriously. Twitter is a shithole now. I mean just last month Medvedev posted a tweet titled "WHY WILL UKRAINE DISAPPEAR? BECAUSE NOBODY NEEDS IT." And Elon allowed him to do it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 18, 2023, 09:39:44 PM
Is Medvedev not allowed to have an opinion? What about Putin? The Wagner guy, or even Osama Bin Laden if he were still alive? Let the Ass-Hats give their opinions and everyone will see proof of their Ass-Hatedness.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 18, 2023, 10:38:26 PM
ya, elmo has been a shitshow.  I dont mind, and actively look for, differences of opinion.  what I dont like, want or need is the constant stream of whack-a-doodle nutcases being platformed 24/7.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 18, 2023, 10:39:11 PM
Elon is too busy looking at himself in the mirror to notice the rest of the Universe.  But apparently a lot of us are looking at him, too!

My sense is that all war is horrible.  In any war, both sides are losing, but if I had to guess, I think the Russians are losing more quickly than the Ukrainians.  The notion that either side is winning in the literal sense of the word is grotesque.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 18, 2023, 10:40:37 PM
It is curious that the hole blown in the ground is apparently 15 meters wide and 2 meters deep.  How exactly does one make a hole that big and not obliterate the train cars?  There must be a lot of coked-up meth-head Ukrainians in Crimea right now, as Sir Pug suggests.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 18, 2023, 10:46:17 PM
I'm not sure if the articles explanation of the data is accurate, but Forbes does some interesting analysis of Oryx data around Ukrainian casualties to push forward an interesting bit of speculation:  Ukrainian heavy artillery seems to not be moving nearly as much as the lighter artillery, and it's paying the price for it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2023/05/14/russia-hits-immobile-and-predictable-m-777-krab-and-m-109-howitzers-hard/?sh=4beae3246f19

The article seems balanced and fair.  I just wonder if it's accurate?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 19, 2023, 03:24:45 AM
Thoughts on what "winning" in Ukraine means by @warinthefuture.

For Ukraine, among other considerations, it means "winning a just peace", that would also include a military defeat for Russian forces.

A good read. Frozen conflict indeed could be interpreted as a minor victory for Russia. Godspeed for the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive.


https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1659080754423386113

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1659080754423386113.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 19, 2023, 02:13:29 PM
I want!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FwgpYvEWwBURyNs?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 19, 2023, 02:25:41 PM
Any time is a good time?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 19, 2023, 02:40:51 PM
F-16s for Ukraine!   :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 19, 2023, 03:02:25 PM
Ok but only because you asked nicely.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65649471
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 19, 2023, 04:32:18 PM
Ship over copies of the DCS Viper module now so they can get to work.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on May 19, 2023, 09:09:27 PM
I would not be surprised to hear that some Ukrainian pilots have quietly been training on F-16s for months already.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 19, 2023, 11:55:10 PM
I wish the Ukrainians all the success in the world with the F-16s.  I hope that the battlefield juice is worth the logistical squeeze.  F-16s take A LOT of baby-sitting and need to be flown from very well maintained airfields.

I suspect that this announcement is probably more important for the future of the UAF, than it is for the next 6-12 months of combat.  The F-16 is a good plane, it's in plentiful supply, and it will serve the Ukrainians well for the next 10-15 years. 

But, whether it's used in an air superiority role to try to challenge Russian control of the skies near the front lines or in a ground attack role to go after Russian targets on the ground, it's unclear how big a dent it will make in the Russian ground-based SAM systems or in the Russian air force in the next year.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on May 20, 2023, 12:19:31 AM
I'd like to preface that I understand the Russian position in all of this. Yeah, I understand how that sounds. Russia is a country of both mass fatalism and mass paranoia, which explains their AIDS epidemic, suicide rate, mortality rate, infant mortality rate, complete lack of babies, and average age with regards to deaths. If you didn't know, Ethopian men have a longer lifespan than Russian men. The Russian people will be gone as an ethnic group within two generations. And by gone I mean relegated to obscurity.

IMHO, Putin invaded Ukraine in an attempt to not only seize control and or install a friendly government, but to remove a potential Ukrainian NATO membership (which we've pushed for a decade), and to close the Bessarabian Gap, a historical invasion route into Russia. Remember, Russians are paranoid and they have measure to be so as they've been invaded throughout history via these routes. This doesn't mean I forgive their horrific crimes in Ukraine, and they are horrific, it is simply that I understand their position when it comes territory and geopolitics. We've (western nations) been pushing and pushing up and until the very frontier of Russia an alliance they see as aggressive (it is) and adsorbing former Soviet buffer states and dumping right on their front door. This would be akin to China seeking and finding an alliance in Canada or simply adsorbing (annexing) them. We'd probably feel very different about that Stateside.       

Does this forgive the Russians for the mass rape, mass murder, or mass theft of Ukraine? Absolutely not. It's nothing different than what they did in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Austria, or Germany during WWII. It's nothing different than what they did in CZ in '68, to the Afghans in '80, the Chechen's in '94, or Syria in '15. Rape is a weapon for them and Russians love to rape. They love it. They revel in it.

A group of us watched the drone footage from Babai where Russian Soldiers mass-raped a group of little girls (9-13yo) to death. And yes, most were raped to death. Coming across the bodies of little girls stripped naked, bruised, blood soaked thighs, hands bound in R-E tape made me nauseous. Villagers (men) with pipes shoved in their asses wrapped in concertina wire. I despise them. I fuckin' hate them. I hate the Russians with all my heart and I've never hated anyone before, ever. 

I wouldn't know where to begin with regards to charities. There are so many of them out there and so many of them are scams. These range from medical supplies, medicine, food, gear for the troops, you name it. If you find one, make sure to do your due diligence.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 20, 2023, 11:41:26 AM
I have long thought and hoped that once the last of the old Soviet generation in Russia died-off that the younger generation would be more open-minded, positive and peace-loving. Remember, Russians have NEVER been truly free in their entire history. Their biggest impediment to that right now is Putin and his support from the Money Men as well as the last of the Old Guard from the former Soviet system who still believe that was when they were at their greatest strength and power in the world. A charismatic, Zelensky-type figure could revive the Russian state and lead them into a new era of greatness. And hopefully Peace.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 20, 2023, 01:00:11 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on May 20, 2023, 11:41:26 AMRemember, Russians have NEVER been truly free in their entire history.

You hit the nail on the head as to exactly why Russian fatalism persists in every generation. 

I don't expect it to change any time soon because, well, studying Russia most of my adult life has shown a very long tradition of it never changing. 

Even great reformer leaders like Alexander II, which are aberrations in Russian history, end up being ironically killed by his own people after he spent a life trying to help them.

I'd gone over back earlier in this thread a fact that is lost on westerners that Detcord pointed out again.  Russia suffers, it has been invaded over and over again, it's had awful tyrannical leaders and governments time and again, its own leadership has killed itself in power struggles time and again. 

We in the west can't understand the deep, in some cases justified, paranoia that exists in Russia over the encroachment of NATO, the courting of Ukraine, the "dagger to the heart of Moscow" as I termed it before the war.  Is that NATO's intent?  No, I don't think it is.  Will the Russian people ever believe that?  No. 

They've had too much history built up in their collective psyche to ever trust their neighbors or respect anything except strength.  Just as was shown earlier, even reformers like Yeltsen felt the only safe route for Russia was for Russia to, frankly just be in charge. 

The US has had some similar pursuits.  The Monroe doctrine, the Banana Wars, the Cuban crisis, the 80's regime changes. 

This is all a long cycle that's been going on a long time and will keep going.  Again, it's no excuse for what Russia is doing to Ukraine, it doesn't mean the Russians have a legitimate cause to invade a neighbor with the intent of conquering it.  It's just never so black and white, and there's a deep national trauma in the hearts of Russians that make these types of wars of aggression justified in their minds.

It literally goes back to the Mongols.  They're a nation state built on violence only being countered with greater violence.  It's little wonder we're all back around to this again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 20, 2023, 10:08:22 PM
I remember reading that in 1914 when Russia went to war, that many of the serfs thought that Czar Nicholas would now become the great Father-figure that would finally end Serfdom in Russia and give them their freedom. Disappointed once again, they became easy converts for the Bolsheviks later. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 20, 2023, 10:51:18 PM
^Indeed.  And the cycle of violence began again.  So far from the first time in Russia and so far not the last.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 21, 2023, 03:00:49 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on May 20, 2023, 01:00:11 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on May 20, 2023, 11:41:26 AMRemember, Russians have NEVER been truly free in their entire history.

You hit the nail on the head as to exactly why Russian fatalism persists in every generation. 

I don't expect it to change any time soon because, well, studying Russia most of my adult life has shown a very long tradition of it never changing. 

Even great reformer leaders like Alexander II, which are aberrations in Russian history, end up being ironically killed by his own people after he spent a life trying to help them.

I'd gone over back earlier in this thread a fact that is lost on westerners that Detcord pointed out again.  Russia suffers, it has been invaded over and over again, it's had awful tyrannical leaders and governments time and again, its own leadership has killed itself in power struggles time and again. 

We in the west can't understand the deep, in some cases justified, paranoia that exists in Russia over the encroachment of NATO, the courting of Ukraine, the "dagger to the heart of Moscow" as I termed it before the war.  Is that NATO's intent?  No, I don't think it is.  Will the Russian people ever believe that?  No. 

They've had too much history built up in their collective psyche to ever trust their neighbors or respect anything except strength.  Just as was shown earlier, even reformers like Yeltsen felt the only safe route for Russia was for Russia to, frankly just be in charge. 

The US has had some similar pursuits.  The Monroe doctrine, the Banana Wars, the Cuban crisis, the 80's regime changes. 

This is all a long cycle that's been going on a long time and will keep going.  Again, it's no excuse for what Russia is doing to Ukraine, it doesn't mean the Russians have a legitimate cause to invade a neighbor with the intent of conquering it.  It's just never so black and white, and there's a deep national trauma in the hearts of Russians that make these types of wars of aggression justified in their minds.

It literally goes back to the Mongols.  They're a nation state built on violence only being countered with greater violence.  It's little wonder we're all back around to this again.

I always enjoy reading your long well considered posts, Sir A. That is a very good summary of how Russians see it. So many western reporters and authors reporting on Russia get often so many basics wrong it is downright embarrassing.

The other side of the coin then from how Russia itself views their own history is how the history played along from say the pov of a neighbouring country. There's always the subjective bias, and it can mean a very different looking "history".

There's been good many posts here arguing regarding the war in Ukraine, there's Ukrainian propaganda too. They do it too, sure.

But going back to the long history of Russia from their point of view, since 15th to 16th century, Russian Empire started to write the history of Eastern Slavs as history of Russia.

Mongols caused a lot of suffering to Muscovy among other nations of the time, true. However Russian history would have us believe they alone suffered them so Europe did not have to. They saved Europe from Napoleon, then they saved them again from Hitler. What they would like us to forget (in addition to WW2 not starting in June 1941)  is their own violent empire building. It seems today marks the anniversary of the Circassian genocide (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_genocide), one of so (!) many such events from Russian history.

While Western history recognises the Western colonialization, it remains mostly quiet there's still a colonial empire builder in Europe today.

https://twitter.com/cem_oezdemir/status/1660166155405754368

Regarding Nato expansion, they (Kremlin) certainly are angered by that, as smaller nations joining Nato removes them from under their sphere of interest. While being able to say they are surrounded by an expansionist Nato makes for good propaganda, too. Being surrounded by former vassal states who now have a faster growing economy, less so. Can't have that.

With collapse of Soviet Union, the end of history that wasn't, Finland for instance was content to join EU while stating ok all previous agreements done with SU are now void. As for priorities of former WP nations, they were quick to first apply to Nato. Nato, or its member states rather, were very hesitant to allow for this, it took many years until the Nato enlargement was completed.

Why were they so insistent on this priority? I suppose everyone knows the answer now.

Poland, Baltics, in particular, were very open trying to communicate Russia is not becoming this democracy everyone was hoping for, and while I for one tended to agree to some point, especially during the 00's and 2010s it felt very awkward - and yes: russophobic - to say so in public.

Surely not, surely they've changed, at least a bit. Wandel durch handel, they see the benefit of existing amicably with EU and the collective West? Well, no, if your own priority is to fix the catastrophe that was the fall of Soviet Union.

I operate with a foreign language here and am trying to formulate a view from Eastern Europe, for sake of argumentation. At the end, I guess everyone's got their own version of history.

All this pains me a great deal, I've been to Russia a good many times, people there are so warm and wonderful as you get to know them, as are people everywhere once you get to know them.

Another thing that pains me a great deal too, talking about history, is afaik not once has there been a change of power in Russia because a popular rising of a sort. It's always been a palace coup hasn't it. I see no good options here. Bulldogs under the carpet seem to have become quite restless, though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 21, 2023, 03:13:19 AM
its a weird thing to think or say but, it would seem that there are demographics on the planet that just seem to like being subjugated.  kinda like Cowboys/Jets fans but worse.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 21, 2023, 03:19:56 AM
btw Pratt thats how you space out a wall of text so its readable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 21, 2023, 10:21:49 AM
Great post, D. I understand the Russian point of view.

And somehow the lowly Jets get dragged into another mess. Haven't we suffered enough?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 21, 2023, 11:32:33 AM
no, jets fans always suffer!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 21, 2023, 12:32:16 PM
I'm a Cowboys fan.  At least we deserve our suffering.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 21, 2023, 12:46:23 PM
That reminds me, I haven't thrown out a wall of text in a while. I'm getting weak in my old age.

Please accept instead these videos I just ran across at Military History Visualized (which site many of us here are fans of, but for those who haven't seen them yet):


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 21, 2023, 05:42:45 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on May 21, 2023, 03:00:49 AMI always enjoy reading your long well considered posts, Sir A. That is a very good summary of how Russians see it. So many western reporters and authors reporting on Russia get often so many basics wrong it is downright embarrassing.

The other side of the coin then from how Russia itself views their own history is how the history played along from say the pov of a neighbouring country. There's always the subjective bias, and it can mean a very different looking "history".

Thanks Crossroads, I appreciate it and I appreciate your views as well.

And yes, you hit a great point I was alluding to.  Russia has become the colonial aggressor that it so often decries.

They feel it's justified because of their history.  Violence as an appropriate response to violence. 

It's why populism, Russia First, and strongmen appeal to the Russian psyche.  But you're right, they've become what they claim to behold.

It's the typical go to for Totalitarian thought.  Demonize the other, embrace legitimate historical concerns but enhance them with new bad guys. 

For Russia the new bad guy is the "Anglo-Saxon Hegemony" and historically, yes the British Empire has a lot to answer for in shaping the world order the way that benefited it.  The USA has followed the British lead.

Russia is historically far from blameless in any of what they accuse the west of doing.  It merely serves their political interests to point the finger. 

The West can be said to have similar issues.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 21, 2023, 09:34:18 PM
I'm an optimist. I believe come Thanksgiving Day, Jets Fans will have something to be thankful for. Maybe the Cowboys too. Russia will take a bit longer I think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 21, 2023, 10:49:47 PM
Ukraine will win before either the Jets or Cowboys are relevant again.

ffs, NASA will have operational warp drive before the Jets are worth a shit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on May 21, 2023, 11:13:28 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on May 20, 2023, 01:00:11 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on May 20, 2023, 11:41:26 AMRemember, Russians have NEVER been truly free in their entire history.

You hit the nail on the head as to exactly why Russian fatalism persists in every generation. 

I don't expect it to change any time soon because, well, studying Russia most of my adult life has shown a very long tradition of it never changing. 

Even great reformer leaders like Alexander II, which are aberrations in Russian history, end up being ironically killed by his own people after he spent a life trying to help them.

I'd gone over back earlier in this thread a fact that is lost on westerners that Detcord pointed out again.  Russia suffers, it has been invaded over and over again, it's had awful tyrannical leaders and governments time and again, its own leadership has killed itself in power struggles time and again. 

We in the west can't understand the deep, in some cases justified, paranoia that exists in Russia over the encroachment of NATO, the courting of Ukraine, the "dagger to the heart of Moscow" as I termed it before the war.  Is that NATO's intent?  No, I don't think it is.  Will the Russian people ever believe that?  No. 

They've had too much history built up in their collective psyche to ever trust their neighbors or respect anything except strength.  Just as was shown earlier, even reformers like Yeltsen felt the only safe route for Russia was for Russia to, frankly just be in charge. 

The US has had some similar pursuits.  The Monroe doctrine, the Banana Wars, the Cuban crisis, the 80's regime changes. 

This is all a long cycle that's been going on a long time and will keep going.  Again, it's no excuse for what Russia is doing to Ukraine, it doesn't mean the Russians have a legitimate cause to invade a neighbor with the intent of conquering it.  It's just never so black and white, and there's a deep national trauma in the hearts of Russians that make these types of wars of aggression justified in their minds.

It literally goes back to the Mongols.  They're a nation state built on violence only being countered with greater violence.  It's little wonder we're all back around to this again.

Yep, exactly.

I think its also important to bring up the fact that when Putin came to power, initially that is (pre/post 9/11), he spent much of his diplomatic time abroad with then President G. W. Bush and other European leaders. He sought out and pressed home that Russia's future lay with not only Western Europe but the United States as well. His primary goal in those early years was to secure closer economic and military ties with Europe but also repeatedly floated a potential deep and lasting Russo-American Alliance. An alliance that transcended the economic and military but cultural as well, even making potential concessions when it came to democracy within Russia. Putin even pressed home his very real desire for NATO membership, something he pushed for both publicly and privately for half a decade.

Why? China. He was deeply concerned, and rightly so, that China would usurp from within (already happened) and would eventually invade Siberia for its resources, which are vast. And China's political leaders have stated over and over again over for the past 20 years that Siberia isn't Russian territory but Chinese. Putin being ever more isolated by the West has directly led him into a pseudo-alliance with China that undermines the Russian state at nearly every opportunity. The next decade will likely see Russia become nothing more than a resource colony for the Chinese hegemony.

If you haven't seen it then give it a watch - https://www.amazon.com/When-Siberia-Will-Be-Chinese/dp/B079C5JRKY (https://www.amazon.com/When-Siberia-Will-Be-Chinese/dp/B079C5JRKY)

All of this makes me think what could've been. Russia as a direct partner or even member of the EU. Russia as a partner or even member within NATO. What could've been avoided or even achieved had our political leadership had the foresight to simply sit down, listen, and discuss.     
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 22, 2023, 07:49:45 AM
I think we did sit down, listen, and discuss. A lot of the criticism thrown out about the current situation, is that we not only wanted but expected the post-Soviet kleptocracy to stop being a kleptocracy (somewhat how we always not only wanted but expected the CCP to stop being communist and start being more truly democratic), if we just played ball with them more.

What happened was that playing nice-ball with them more, made it easier for them to be more successful tyrants at home, over their own people -- and to infiltrate and subvert the governments who were trying to play nice with them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 22, 2023, 08:39:48 AM
To be sure, Russian liberalism had a renaissance of sorts from 1995-2010 or so.  But I'm not sure that Russia tackled the internal cultural problems (some of which have been discussed here) that ultimately led us to where we are today. 

The US and Western Europe seemed to be operating under the premise that economic growth and the creation of an economic middle class would transform Russia into a liberal democratic state.  While that served their own short-sighted interests very well, it obviously didn't solve the internal problems in Russia, and Russian authoritarianism seems to be back to where it was post-1945.

I think there was a missed opportunity there, as you suggest, but threading that needle would have taken more than just a warmer response to Putin's overtures in his first 5-10 years in power.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 22, 2023, 09:04:11 AM
I don't think Putin and his regime (overall) ever had any intention of tackling the internal cultural problems that ultimately etc. In some cases they just didn't care; in other cases they regarded the problems as a feature, not a bug!

The remaining problems they either cared about but couldn't do much with (such as getting the Siberian oil back online, which took almost up to the start of this war), or thought would be useful in getting aid from the West, either by addressing them (to show evidence they were doing something the Western nations culturally cared about) or not addressing them (and asking the West for help in addressing them, which could be spun in various ways to their socio-political and maybe personal advantages).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 22, 2023, 09:15:52 AM
Meanwhile, in Ukrain Russia: a border raid by Russian Volunteer Corps to Belgorod. Apparently no or little border guards from Russia there, as taking the war to Russia proper seems to be out of bounds.

From the parody account:

https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1660624075008385030

Not sure if parody too, would be a golden press statement if true (referring to Donbass in 2014 with strong refusal of any Russian presence there):

https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1660599662007537665


Not sure what's actually happening, let us wait and see. A major embarrasment for Russia in the info-space, and if they would need to move actual troops there, an opportunity for UAF somewhere else?

One more serious tweet to describe the situation:

QuoteToday's Free russia incursion into Belgorod is creating a magnificent dilemma for the russians:

putin can either move 50,000+ troops from southern Ukraine to belgorod, bryansk, and kursk oblasts to secure the 700+ km border with Ukraine, which would mean that russia has even
1/2
less troops to withstand the coming Ukrainian offensive, or putin can leave the 50,000 troops in southern Ukraine and lose village after village, town after town to the Free russia legion.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

2/2

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1660634386042159108
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 22, 2023, 09:21:07 AM
@Warmonitor3 with a map from the area:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1660609384185995264


edit: Prokhorovka is some 20 miles further northeast that road. A greatest tank battle brewing?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 22, 2023, 09:27:43 AM
Ukrainian attack helicopters attacking Belgorod or Russian?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 22, 2023, 09:29:41 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 22, 2023, 09:27:43 AMUkrainian attack helicopters attacking Belgorod or Russian?

Russian volunteers under Ukrainian army are, so a land operation  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 22, 2023, 09:43:50 AM
If the Ukrainians start hiring Syrian mercenaries to launch attacks into Russian territory, could we convince Putin to go after the Assad regime?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 22, 2023, 09:57:51 AM
More of Putin's enemy Drug-Addict Nazis' attacking him? Damn, that movement's really starting to spread.  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 22, 2023, 01:11:50 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on May 22, 2023, 09:15:52 AMMeanwhile, in Ukrain Russia: a border raid by Russian Volunteer Corps to Belgorod. Apparently no or little border guards from Russia there, as taking the war to Russia proper seems to be out of bounds.

From the parody account:


Not sure what's actually happening, let us wait and see. A major embarrasment for Russia in the info-space, and if they would need to move actual troops there, an opportunity for UAF somewhere else?

One more serious tweet to describe the situation:

It does seem like a good distraction to draw-off Russian attention from elsewhere.

Time will tell...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 22, 2023, 01:24:05 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 22, 2023, 01:11:50 PMIt does seem like a good distraction to draw-off Russian attention from elsewhere.

Time will tell...

Seems to be the intent, but the problem here is more political than tactical. 

How are NATO countries that have waffled a bit going to respond to this?  Something immediately gets lost on Ukraine's status as the victim when they begin operating on undisputed Russian territory. 

It was like the damage Lee's army took when he crossed into Maryland in 1862.  He understood the significance of winning a victory on northern soil but his army hemorrhaged morale and men just from the idea that they were no longer fighting a purely defensive war.

I'm not saying this is necessarily the wrong play, but it's surely a dangerous one when your national survival heavily depends on the support of western partners that are already hesitant to provoke Russia further.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 22, 2023, 02:51:42 PM
russians fighting for Ukraine invade russia.....  spicy   :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 22, 2023, 04:03:56 PM
so its revolution time?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1660714574432321536
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 22, 2023, 04:21:37 PM
^I like it, but if Russia dissolves into 1000 pieces no one can predict how that will end  :embarrassed:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 22, 2023, 06:13:32 PM
Zeihan has some good points this time -- and some really dark ones. (If I heard about Russians kidnapping and shuffle exporting Ukrainian 3-year-olds to patch their own demographic catastrophe, especially in Siberia, I'd somehow forgotten about it...?!)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 22, 2023, 07:04:29 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fwu75VGXsAAjuK-?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 22, 2023, 07:08:20 PM
^ Just when I think I have seen it all in this thread  :magnify:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 22, 2023, 07:48:41 PM
its gonna be an interesting summer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 22, 2023, 09:14:27 PM
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 22, 2023, 10:08:57 PM
If Russia breaks-up, who gets the Nukes? I wouldn't want to be the only Independant Republic without one.  :TimeOut:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 23, 2023, 12:18:38 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 22, 2023, 09:14:27 PMhttps://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine

Powerful, grim stuff.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 23, 2023, 08:58:57 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 22, 2023, 09:14:27 PMhttps://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine

"Underworld" indeed. (The original name of the article in the print edition.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 23, 2023, 11:10:30 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on May 22, 2023, 01:24:05 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on May 22, 2023, 01:11:50 PMIt does seem like a good distraction to draw-off Russian attention from elsewhere.

Time will tell...

Seems to be the intent, but the problem here is more political than tactical. 

How are NATO countries that have waffled a bit going to respond to this?  Something immediately gets lost on Ukraine's status as the victim when they begin operating on undisputed Russian territory. 

It was like the damage Lee's army took when he crossed into Maryland in 1862.  He understood the significance of winning a victory on northern soil but his army hemorrhaged morale and men just from the idea that they were no longer fighting a purely defensive war.

I'm not saying this is necessarily the wrong play, but it's surely a dangerous one when your national survival heavily depends on the support of western partners that are already hesitant to provoke Russia further.

By constraining the battle strictly to Ukrainian soil, you are also constraining all the hell associated with it to the Ukrainian civilian population and it's lands. This is survival - not some proper war.
I think the Ukrainians should take and hold Russian territory and swap it out for Ukrainian lands when the dust begins to settle on this conflict. The idea that somehow this war should be fought only on Ukrainian lands when Russia was the aggressor is repugnant to me.

Like Doolittle's Raid on Tokyo, this will force changes in Russian deployment that will only benefit the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 23, 2023, 11:16:13 AM
sketchy reports of two other border incursions about 20km to the north west of the first one.
my question is this:

what banks are there?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fw0M7J5WcAE4s9M?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 23, 2023, 11:23:54 AM
One bank is just across a 'mother, beautiful bridge.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 23, 2023, 11:31:59 AM
Quote from: Windigo on May 23, 2023, 11:23:54 AMOne bank is just across a 'mother, beautiful bridge.'

What if they blow the bridge?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 23, 2023, 11:34:52 AM
You know I could go on with the Kelly's Heroes quotes forever, I love that movie. I own a beta (Sony video format) of that movie and a VHS, and a DVD of it (thanks Columbia).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 23, 2023, 12:45:08 PM
seems like a lot of cross border raiding going on.

Incoming reports that the Free Russia Legion captured another 2 villages in the Belgorod region of Russia today.

Igor Girkin (Strelkov) writes on Telegram that the villages of Gorkovsky and Shchetinovka have been taken by the Legion.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fw03o8vWcAAByi2?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 23, 2023, 01:21:48 PM
Yeah but the people seem really friendly.  Hey baby I need about 60 feet of bridge. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 23, 2023, 02:13:36 PM
But do they know about the Tigers? Everyone knows you don't go locking horns with no tigers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 23, 2023, 03:41:48 PM
Quote from: Windigo on May 23, 2023, 02:13:36 PMBut do they know about the Tigers? Everyone knows you don't go locking horns with no tigers.

To a New Yorker like you, a hero is some kind of sandwich.  Not some nut in a Sherman taking on a Tiger. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 23, 2023, 04:01:28 PM
ummmm....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fw1BpjTXwBIXr5X?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 23, 2023, 04:36:22 PM
wut?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on May 23, 2023, 06:17:02 PM
Looks ki d of like a TOW launcher.  Otherwise no idea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 23, 2023, 07:05:02 PM
oh ffs, THE 40s era truck in the backround.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 23, 2023, 07:41:47 PM
Where'd that pic come from?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 23, 2023, 09:12:58 PM
somewhere in Donetsk
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 23, 2023, 09:48:06 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 23, 2023, 07:05:02 PMoh ffs, THE 40s era truck in the backround.

US M3 Scout car. A bunch were sent to USSR as lend lease, and stayed in service past the war. So I am guessing that is how it got there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 23, 2023, 10:10:05 PM
Yeah, I don't get why this is so odd.  They have old lend lease junk to shoot at.


The Russians and Ukrainians didn't throw anything away.  It's obviously flagged as a target.  It's probably something dug up from a 70 year old stockpile.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 23, 2023, 10:29:19 PM
Right. Seventy in Russian Years comes to about 10.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 23, 2023, 11:33:24 PM
range target makes sense.  maybe even a local history event.  it was presented as something being used currently.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 24, 2023, 12:47:42 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 23, 2023, 07:05:02 PMoh ffs, THE 40s era truck in the backround.
I thought you were wondering where the third brake light was on that bad boy.   :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on May 25, 2023, 12:45:24 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on May 22, 2023, 07:49:45 AMI think we did sit down, listen, and discuss. A lot of the criticism thrown out about the current situation, is that we not only wanted but expected the post-Soviet kleptocracy to stop being a kleptocracy (somewhat how we always not only wanted but expected the CCP to stop being communist and start being more truly democratic), if we just played ball with them more.

What happened was that playing nice-ball with them more, made it easier for them to be more successful tyrants at home, over their own people -- and to infiltrate and subvert the governments who were trying to play nice with them.

Nope, never happened. G.W. initiated a policy of NATO expansion continually seeking to isolate Russia while Putin sought closer ties to China. Obama, Trump, and Biden have continuously expanded upon this policy. The West never 'played ball' with Russia post-Soviet-collapse, ever. Not even remotely. When it came to discussions of including Russia within NATO and the EU sphere they were all tossed into the shitter. Putin was willing to make incredible concessions so as long as Russia was admitted to the EU and granted provisional NATO status. None of this ever took place, ever.

Now Russia is a capitalist wet-dream, circle-jerk, shot to the mouth dystopia. Your IP means nothing, your CP means nothing, your RTD means nothing, everything can be stolen. The initial reforms of the early days of the Putin admin are long gone. Right to assemble, right to protest, freedom of the press, and the early days of the 'Putin Bill' which closely resembled the American First Amendment, all gone.

Nixon predicted it:
     

   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 25, 2023, 01:40:58 AM
breech training?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1661622444845678593
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 25, 2023, 01:49:14 AM
this doesnt seem like the right way to do this.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1659933879803736067
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 25, 2023, 02:00:20 AM
Detcord, my friend, I don't disagree with your notion of what Western foreign policy has mostly been, but I think what you're proposing above is what my father used to call "an unfalsifiable hypothesis".  Russian politics has always been an unpredictable animal at best, which makes it even harder to predict what might have followed from any false hypothesis.

You may be right.

I may be crazy.

But it just may be a lunatic you're arguing with!   :grin:  Peace to you and yours tonight, my man.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 25, 2023, 02:29:39 AM
I wouldnt disagree with the west gloating over the soviet implosion of the 90s at the time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 25, 2023, 02:30:08 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fw7BxzmWYAE4NOP?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 25, 2023, 08:05:36 AM
That Nixon video is haunting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 25, 2023, 08:32:01 AM
Good summary of what is going on at the Ukraine/Russia border near Belgorod the last 1-2 days.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 25, 2023, 08:58:45 AM
Det, weirdly enough I think we're talking about the same things happening from different angles. I don't think Putin or his regime would have been truly willing or even able to fulfill any serious concessions, without ceasing to be a gangster government, but that wouldn't stop Putin from making offers knowing they couldn't and wouldn't be taken seriously and so using that as political propaganda justification for his actions otherwise. That's typical for his behavior: for example, he'll talk about free and fair elections but when he has chances to actually do that, he doesn't -- while still claiming he did!

So we end up playing nice in the only way that looks like it may work, sending Western help for rebuilding infrastructure after the collapse of the USSR, and encouraging the opening of western capitalistic franchises in the country -- but that gets exploited both by the Putin regime AND (as you noted) by the corporations thanks to Putin's regime not really changing and never intending to change, in fact wanting to use those Western opportunities for their own bloating (just as the Western corps used the characteristics of the Putin regime for their own exploits, while the gettin' was good.) The end result however was entirely predictable: the regime eventually went too far and the Western corporations cut and run (in some cases also under political western pressure to do so, as punishment to the regime.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 25, 2023, 10:10:06 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 25, 2023, 08:05:36 AMThat Nixon video is haunting.

Yep, I'm no Nixon fan, but he did get this one right.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 25, 2023, 10:19:09 AM
seems at least one drone got a hit

https://twitter.com/i/status/1661724151520849920
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 25, 2023, 10:19:58 AM
^Was just going to post something almost exactly like that about Nixon, AT.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 26, 2023, 09:49:06 AM
breaching

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 26, 2023, 10:50:03 AM
I feel like Ukraine may have to skip a few steps of that breaching combo, but still...  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 26, 2023, 11:32:05 AM
why?  they have the equipment and have been training in Poland and Germany with it.
they have tracked mine clearing line launchers.
they have Leo based engineering tanks
tracked bridge layers
cv90 and m2 ifvs as well as 113s
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 26, 2023, 04:48:08 PM
Ukraine Can Recapture All its Territory (https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-capable-liberating-territories-not-172843108.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAI6094LPxvAL_NHnKHr0pI5bf_TmRFki9_U4kK0iV7MxLZGAg3YQtzXgcBbGxtYwhLgkQsnqCDBkuXKBCvowBwu2ge0DpWP1aE_E7uelMl6VrVUtDerugyByst86JZ39KJo9anY98bm0-_HGL4Z_5pnRvhVN_x6FWIsjnoIpQPZo)
--- General Milley




Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 27, 2023, 01:19:10 AM
pretty damn good read.

https://wavellroom.com/2023/05/24/russian-airpower-ukraine-nuisance-menace/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 27, 2023, 11:24:21 AM
Description of the video says: The reconnaissance company of the 102nd TD brigade captures how the Russian infantry, supported by a tank and three IVFs, stormed the Ukrainian positions, a counterattack of a Ukrainian tank follows, which shoots the Russians and they flee.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1662478108241412101
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 27, 2023, 07:32:34 PM
so let me get this right.
iran sells drones to russia.
the taliban hate russia.
so the taliban are attacking iran in retaliation.
sounds good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 27, 2023, 08:16:05 PM
A pre-attack prayer from the Ukrainians. These are the Cossacks after all.

This morning, the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhny wrote on Telegram, "The time has come to take back what's ours."   

The message included this video prayer.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 27, 2023, 09:08:47 PM
^That was heavy. God help them all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 28, 2023, 01:16:19 AM
Historian and author David Glantz on Bakhmut. An interesting little interview, also on how terrible of a tank country Donbass can be.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 28, 2023, 06:31:46 PM
Interesting commentary by Glantz, Crossroads!  He suggests that the primary value of Bakhmut is how easy it is to defend--which creates an interesting Catch-22 for a would-be attacker.  Do you neglect it and leave an intact enemy position on your flank as you advance elsewhere, or do you attack it in hopes of reducing it by charging straight into the teeth of the enemy?

It's also interesting that he says it's poor tank country.  We'd heard that it makes for excellent defensive territory, but I'd not heard a specific mention of the anti-armor role that the terrain plays.

At this point, it's a little unclear to me whether the Russians or the Ukrainians have more advantages in terrain that's open to maneuver.  Defense thrives in terrain less open for maneuver, so I suspect that means that the Russians want to hold as much of Bakhmut as they can to prepare for a Uke counteroffensive.

But, as Glantz clearly acknowledges, none of us can really know what the future holds.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 28, 2023, 06:36:03 PM
most of the ground to the west is higher.  so if the russians want to push out... lol have fun with that.  imo the city can be left alone while Ukrainian resources are used elsewhere to better effect.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on May 28, 2023, 08:44:28 PM
About 15 seconds into the Glantz video there's a tank with Balkenkreuzen on it. Is there some non-WW2 German provenance to the symbol that would see it pop up on a video of a modern tank?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on May 28, 2023, 09:02:34 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on May 28, 2023, 08:44:28 PMAbout 15 seconds into the Glantz video there's a tank with Balkenkreuzen on it. Is there some non-WW2 German provenance to the symbol that would see it pop up on a video of a modern tank?

I think that's just the UAF's standard "equilateral cross" marking broken up by the ERA on the tank. 

They've been using the Cossack Cross as their main Friendly Fire marking for a while.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on May 28, 2023, 09:04:58 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on May 28, 2023, 08:44:28 PMAbout 15 seconds into the Glantz video there's a tank with Balkenkreuzen on it. Is there some non-WW2 German provenance to the symbol that would see it pop up on a video of a modern tank?

I've been asking this since day one.  I've seen videos of other questionable symbols being used on uniforms and vehicles as well but I don't want to give any more details so as to avoid offending anyone. 

But you can google hateful symbols and Ukraine war and see what comes up.  There are even some TikTok clips of the good guys giving a salute that would normally be considered offensive. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 28, 2023, 09:48:46 PM
I like to think that its Ukrainian trolling but whatever.
this looks like someone wants to cross a river somewhere.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1662795625409175552
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 29, 2023, 09:58:33 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 27, 2023, 07:32:34 PMso let me get this right.
iran sells drones to russia.
the taliban hate russia.
so the taliban are attacking iran in retaliation.
sounds good.

3D chess courtesy of whoever has the Afghanistan file

was there a nudged to make this happen? Likely IMO
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on May 29, 2023, 11:00:43 AM
Back in the old Soviet Days, the Red Army had a real strength in its Electronic Warfare (EW) capability.

So I wondered where that had gone when in the first six to nine months of the war, the Russians seemed to really suck at it. Had it atrophied? Been cut? or was it just dormant?

Well, it seems like Russian EW capability is back (maybe). This is somewhat old news, but Russian EW (GPS jamming in particular) may be having some effect on JDAM and HIMARs accuracy.

An interesting discussion along those lines:


A similar EW related story tells how Russian EW capabilities have pretty much hobbled the Turkish Bayraktar UAVs. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/turkeys-bayraktar-tb2-drones-ineffective-ukraine-war-2023-5 (https://www.businessinsider.com/turkeys-bayraktar-tb2-drones-ineffective-ukraine-war-2023-5)

Hard to tell how much of this reporting is accurate, but the overall gist is probably right. The Russians may be slow, and often stupid, but they can adapt and learn over time. EW is an area where they may have found their footing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on May 29, 2023, 11:14:49 AM
Tank losses visually confirmed hit the 2K mark.

https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1663210133533409280

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 29, 2023, 02:42:30 PM
Quote from: Windigo on May 29, 2023, 09:58:33 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 27, 2023, 07:32:34 PMso let me get this right.
iran sells drones to russia.
the taliban hate russia.
so the taliban are attacking iran in retaliation.
sounds good.

3D chess courtesy of whoever has the Afghanistan file
  • Iran gets poked/distracted
  • Afghanistan consumes/loses some of their spoils of war supplies
  • two states that are not friendly to western interests are agrily  bumping military uglies

was there a nudged to make this happen? Likely IMO

seems to be mostly over water rights.  have to dig more for links.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 29, 2023, 04:58:40 PM
Meanwhile, in Kosovo, NATO peacekeepers from Italy and Hungary, playing the role of riot police, come under attack from Serbs.

I am sure that Russia has nothing to do with this.

Absolutely not.

Yeah.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65748024
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 30, 2023, 12:37:57 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 29, 2023, 02:42:30 PM
Quote from: Windigo on May 29, 2023, 09:58:33 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 27, 2023, 07:32:34 PMso let me get this right.
iran sells drones to russia.
the taliban hate russia.
so the taliban are attacking iran in retaliation.
sounds good.

3D chess courtesy of whoever has the Afghanistan file
  • Iran gets poked/distracted
  • Afghanistan consumes/loses some of their spoils of war supplies
  • two states that are not friendly to western interests are agrily  bumping military uglies

was there a nudged to make this happen? Likely IMO

seems to be mostly over water rights.  have to dig more for links.

water is worth fighting over... always
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 30, 2023, 10:01:22 AM
That's what the duck in my pool tells me everytime I go out and get in. Bastard.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 30, 2023, 10:37:14 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1663550121622241285
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 30, 2023, 11:40:28 AM
Quote from: Windigo on May 30, 2023, 12:37:57 AMwater is worth fighting over... always

We in the US Southwest know nothing about that.  The bounty of the Colorado River is infinite...

 :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 30, 2023, 12:26:45 PM
who wants to go through all 58 pages

https://www.cna.org/reports/2023/05/russias-use-of-drones-in-ukraine
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 30, 2023, 02:40:40 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1663607860847058944
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on May 30, 2023, 06:55:59 PM
I think whoever perpetrated the drone attack on Moscow is bound to someday author a book called "30 Megabytes over Moscow", where s/he spills all the details on what actually happened.

The only pictures I've seen from Tokyo look more like the buildings in question were targeted by a savage bottle-rocket attack.  There are some burn marks a couple feet wide near the top of one building, but I don't even see any broken glass.

From a PR standpoint, it's actually a brilliant move.  Don't actually hurt anybody, but get Russian civilians worried about the Ukrainian war so that they start insisting that Russia move military assets to defend civilian populations everywhere.

Similar to the Belgorod attacks, the tactical implications of these strikes is negligible.  But, if the news make it into Russian information spaces (has it?), then the strategic implications of these attacks start to matter.

It's worth keeping in mind that the Russian civilians have faced far worse at the hands of Chechen terrorists.  More than 300 Russians were killed in 1999 when Chechen terrorists attacked 4 different apartment buildings.  In 2002, another 120 Russian hostages were killed in a Moscow movie theater stormed by Russian special forces.  In 2004, 333 people (including 187 children) died in the Beslan School incident.  The Russians saw similar attacks on a Metro Station in 2010 and an airport in 2011.

Judging by the response of the Russian people, they came out of these attacks believing fervently in Russia's imperial destiny, as witnessed by their widespread support of the 2014 partial annexation of Ukraine and the 2022 invasion. 

Still, if it draws Russian military resources far away from Ukraine, it's a great move.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on May 31, 2023, 06:50:44 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1663818423502004224
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on May 31, 2023, 08:05:39 AM
Hey, any comfort the (relatively) fixed positions can get, helps the fixed positions take out the targets!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on May 31, 2023, 09:23:43 AM
The umbrella is also appropriately colored.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on May 31, 2023, 10:38:40 AM
Where's the wading pool for their feet?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on May 31, 2023, 12:22:32 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 30, 2023, 11:40:28 AM
Quote from: Windigo on May 30, 2023, 12:37:57 AMwater is worth fighting over... always

We in the US Southwest know nothing about that.  The bounty of the Colorado River is infinite...

 :huh:

Self-Aware Ironic Sarcasm detected.   :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 01, 2023, 01:04:09 PM
Zeihan comments on how the current situation relates to the strategic value of that canal which supplies the agricultural water for Crimea:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 01, 2023, 01:57:56 PM
A Ukraine vet argues in favor of Leo1 over Leo2 tanks in the theater. (Not that Leo2s will be trash of course.)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 01, 2023, 02:41:38 PM
Business Basics looks at the feasibility of claims by the Ukrainian military leaders, that they'll effectively take control of the Crimea in 5 to 7 months (after about half the video setting up the historical situation):


Skip to 10:45 for the meat.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 01, 2023, 07:48:16 PM
Even though the threat of nuclear escalation seems to be fading right now, I wonder if Ukraine taking back Crimea would make the Russians rattle their nukes again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 01, 2023, 08:21:57 PM
They'll rattle their nukes at literally anything for any reason anyway, and losing Crimea will be quite a good reason from their standpoint, so I'm going to guess the answer is "yes".  :pirate:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 01, 2023, 08:22:38 PM
Hasn't been a lot of rattlin' lately...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 01, 2023, 09:27:57 PM
Didn't they do the usual thing when that massive swarm of drones lightly scorched the paint of some of their buildings? I mean, I don't recall that they did, to be honest, but I've been busy elsewhere, so I just assumed business as usual.

If they didn't this time.... hm, I wonder if I should be worried. Can't recall who said it first, but Tom Clancy used to say that a rattling sword is still in the scabbard; a drawn sword doesn't rattle.

 :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 01, 2023, 11:07:53 PM
I think the real concern is Russia using tactical nukes to target Ukrainian troop concentrations, either before or after staging some kind of false flag operation somewhere in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.  But trying to predict the Russians in this whole conflict has been an exercise in futility.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 02, 2023, 02:26:05 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on June 01, 2023, 11:07:53 PMI think the real concern is Russia using tactical nukes to target Ukrainian troop concentrations, either before or after staging some kind of false flag operation somewhere in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.  But trying to predict the Russians in this whole conflict has been an exercise in futility.

I wonder if tactical nukes truly bring any battlefield advantage as such, given the similar effect can be achieved by conventional arms. In 2014, Russia wiped out a Ukrainian mech battalion with MRLS using UAV to adjust fire. At the same time, China et al have made it very clear they don't want to see nukes used, and that in general use of nukes is always a strategic decision, given the absolute pariah status Russia would be under.

Meanwhile in the news: seems the various diversions are creating the desired effect

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1664510885249908736
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 02, 2023, 08:23:29 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on June 02, 2023, 02:26:05 AMMeanwhile in the news: seems the various diversions are creating the desired effect


The Ukrainian/Russians are writing another page in the long history such raiders; Lawrence, Grierson, Stuart, Marion, to name just a few.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 02, 2023, 09:26:38 AM
Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine

May 19, 2023 report by the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf (https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf)

Some interesting thoughts on Russian "human wave" assaults

Page 3  - 4 states:

"Russia's disposable infantry should be considered fundamentally different and are drawn from three principal sources: conscripts from the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics (heavily attrited from early rounds of fighting); prisoners drafted by the Wagner Group; and undertrained mobilised Russian civilians. These troops were originally formed into companies of approximately 60 people,8 but have since been broken down into platoons of approximately 15. They are issued with small arms. Ukrainian troops report that they often appear to be under the influence of amphetamines or other narcotic substances, with material recovered from the battlefield indicating that these are commonly taken in liquid form.

In the attack, disposable infantry are the first to be employed. Disposable platoons are assigned to those avenues of approach to Ukrainian positions that are deemed to offer some cover and thus could prove viable. Although these have been described colloquially as 'human wave attacks', they no longer involve a dense concentration of infantry conducting an assault in a single mass. Rather, a disposable fire team of two to five personnel is sent from a forming-up position in the Russian front line and advances to contact. There may be up to five fire teams pushed across an axis at any one time, but normally only one or two teams will be able to work forwards. The team will skirmish with Ukrainian defensive positions on contact, often until killed. Ukrainian troops noted that many continued to advance, even after being wounded. On more than one occasion Ukrainian soldiers report that disposable infantry have been shot from Russian positions when attempting to retreat. As teams are destroyed by defensive fire, Russian forces will commit successive teams forward by the same line of approach. Ukrainian forces must continuously defend their positions against consecutive waves, expending ammunition, exposing the locations of their defensive positions, and exhausting their personnel.

If these attacks were executed by capable assault troops motivated by factors other than coercion and narcotics, they would be roughly equivalent to historical assault tactics such as the 'short attacks' of the Chinese People's volunteer Army in the Korean War. The term 'human wave attacks' is certainly misleading for probes by successive small assault teams against enemy defences. However, the way that they are conducted is not conducive to successful assaults nor to the maintenance of momentum. Rather, the continuous conduct of this activity, across all axes, is a form of reconnaissance that allows the Russian forces to do two things. First, they find points of weakness in the Ukrainian defences where these troops make surprising amounts of progress or face very limited fire. These are then prioritised for deliberate assault. Alternatively, where the defence is strong, the revelation of Ukrainian firing positions allows specialised troops to begin targeting them."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 02, 2023, 11:39:47 AM
Suchimimus (whom several of us like to watch) posted a video yesterday showing first-person footage, from a driver's camera, of a Pantsir S1 being droned.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 02, 2023, 11:41:34 AM
And here's a video posted by Sucho a day ago, showing what things look like after HIMARs-o-clock.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 02, 2023, 11:44:05 AM
Dude's on fire the past day! -- some footage from the recent Belgorod invasion raid:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 02, 2023, 01:31:25 PM
Gus can strike another T-90 off the list!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 02, 2023, 02:42:04 PM
^nice  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 03, 2023, 01:03:46 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on June 02, 2023, 02:26:05 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on June 01, 2023, 11:07:53 PMI think the real concern is Russia using tactical nukes to target Ukrainian troop concentrations, either before or after staging some kind of false flag operation somewhere in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.  But trying to predict the Russians in this whole conflict has been an exercise in futility.

I wonder if tactical nukes truly bring any battlefield advantage as such, given the similar effect can be achieved by conventional arms. In 2014, Russia wiped out a Ukrainian mech battalion with MRLS using UAV to adjust fire. At the same time, China et al have made it very clear they don't want to see nukes used, and that in general use of nukes is always a strategic decision, given the absolute pariah status Russia would be under.

I'm skeptical.  So long as the Russians have plausible deniability, I wonder if the Chinese and the other BRICS nations will turn them into a pariah.

Russia blatantly invaded another country of 40,000,000 people, with no provocation and little historical precedent.  That didn't trigger pariah status.

Russian has committed widespread atrocities against civilians.  Vladimir Putin is now charged with crimes of war by the ICC.  That hasn't triggered pariah status.

If Russia does a false-flag operation and triggers one or two nukes in thinly populated parts of Ukraine that kill some Russian soldiers, do you really think that using a few other tactical nukes on troop concentrations in Ukraine will trigger that BRICS status?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 03, 2023, 09:28:59 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on June 02, 2023, 11:41:34 AMAnd here's a video posted by Sucho a day ago, showing what things look like after HIMARs-o-clock.


In the early days of the war, the HIMARS rockets were limited to unitary warhead modes.  This meant there was basically one big bomb mounted in the nose of the rocket and, whatever it hit, it destroyed very thoroughly.  This worked for targeting ammo depots and fuel storage areas, but it really limited the effectiveness after softer targets (e.g., train yards, truck convoys, etc.).

While the HIMARS has the ability to use cluster munitions, most "civilized" nations forego the use of those, because they tend to leave too many unexploded warheads lying around that kill people (decades) later.  Thus, the introduction of the tungsten-pellet warheads is a practical alternative.  I'd known this was being considered and thought it was likely, but hadn't heard that we'd done so.

I guess we know now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 04, 2023, 09:51:18 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on June 03, 2023, 01:03:46 PMIf Russia does a false-flag operation and triggers one or two nukes in thinly populated parts of Ukraine that kill some Russian soldiers, do you really think that using a few other tactical nukes on troop concentrations in Ukraine will trigger that BRICS status?

I think, or believe, that Russia won't use those first nukes to begin with. Unthinkable. Let us hope that is how they see it as well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 05, 2023, 07:19:44 AM
The BRICS thing is weird in any case. I understand in theory the desire to create an alternate trading reserve currency, but I also understand in practice that Russia and China clearly mean to use this to abuse their trading partners, especially China. Also, none of their partners are all that stable, and a reserve currency reallllly needs stability to work (but then again that's part of the point from China's perspective: team up with unstable nations and exploit their instability. Back when Russia was, cough, 'leading' the ComIntern, that was a big part of Soviet plans, too.)

So if Russia goes nukey, the worst that happens with BRIC is the other guys kick Russia out of the reserve alternate currency plan. Which at this point might as well be for the best anyway. (But keep in mind, much of the point to China teaming up with Russia on this plan, was for China to get permanent base access in the Black Sea!)

....now my incipient OD-C is gnawing at my imagination trying to work out an alternate nifty abbreviation if the BRICS lose their R.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on June 05, 2023, 10:42:47 AM
This BRICS thing is just nonsense. At the end of the day, no matter what the currency is in a deal or in a chain of deals; it all gets converted to US$ in the end. Everything is still benchmarked against the US$ even BRICS transactions.

 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 05, 2023, 01:06:11 PM
Well, according to the Russian MOD the Ukrainian counteroffensive began yesterday with actions "All along the front" but mostly concentrated in the area around Vuledhar. 

Supposedly the UAF attack was utterly destroyed, with losses exceeding 500 dead and at least 15 tanks and hundreds of fighting vehicles. 

Russians are supposedly putting up video proof of this soon.  I saw a bit of buzz from pro-Russian bloggers hoping to finally see evidence of large scale losses of Leopard II's.

The Ukrainians are of course denying this.   I would of course take it all with a huge grain of salt, especially the idea that it was western equipment destroyed as so far I've seen no evidence posted by the Russians of anything outside older M113's as destroyed western gear. 

We should see soon though.  If the Russians did manage to wreck a UAF attack that completely, neither side will be able to hide it for long.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 05, 2023, 01:45:05 PM
A bit more clarity about last night's attack comes from a few Ukrainian bloggers I trust and is now being reported by Forbes.

It looks like there was indeed an attack by two UAF Brigades at Neskuchne.  Pro-Ukraine bloggers identify this as a "recon in force" that may have taken Neskuchne itself and then advanced to contact, withdrawing once they came under artillery fire and Russians poured armor into the area. 

The Leopard II's that some Russians are claiming to have been destroyed seem by the video evidence of the attack to actually be UAF T-64's.  There is a video of at least one of the T-64's being lost to Russian tank fire, and a Russian T-72 being lost in the exchange. 

So, interesting to see how this develops.  It could be that the UAF was seizing ground in prep for the offensive.  It could also be another shaping attack. 

It does not look like the UAF took significant losses of men and western equipment as the Russian MOD is saying, but it does look as if they did fall back after meeting resistance and taking losses.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on June 05, 2023, 02:22:59 PM
Trusting Russian estimates/claims of enemy combat losses is akin to trusting Luftwaffe estimates/claims of enemy losses during the Battle of Britain.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 05, 2023, 05:01:05 PM
I'm glad to hear more detailed reports on that probing attack near Neskuchne.  Mainstream media carried nothing about it besides the traditional "Russia has claimed a stupendous victory and announced plans for a victory parade in downtown Kyiv next week.  The Ukrainian government denies these claims."

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on June 05, 2023, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on June 05, 2023, 01:45:05 PMA bit more clarity about last night's attack comes from a few Ukrainian bloggers I trust and is now being reported by Forbes.

It looks like there was indeed an attack by two UAF Brigades at Neskuchne.  Pro-Ukraine bloggers identify this as a "recon in force" that may have taken Neskuchne itself and then advanced to contact, withdrawing once they came under artillery fire and Russians poured armor into the area. 

The Leopard II's that some Russians are claiming to have been destroyed seem by the video evidence of the attack to actually be UAF T-64's.  There is a video of at least one of the T-64's being lost to Russian tank fire, and a Russian T-72 being lost in the exchange. 

So, interesting to see how this develops.  It could be that the UAF was seizing ground in prep for the offensive.  It could also be another shaping attack. 

It does not look like the UAF took significant losses of men and western equipment as the Russian MOD is saying, but it does look as if they did fall back after meeting resistance and taking losses.
Sounds about like the definition of a feint.  UAF is "shaping' Russia's impression of where the attack is coming.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 05, 2023, 06:29:52 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on June 05, 2023, 05:01:05 PMI'm glad to hear more detailed reports on that probing attack near Neskuchne.  Mainstream media carried nothing about it besides the traditional "Russia has claimed a stupendous victory and announced plans for a victory parade in downtown Kyiv next week.  The Ukrainian government denies these claims."

Right now it looks like the Russian media is reporting on every single action and calling it the counteroffensive, especially if it gains little or no ground. 

They had the same pattern at the start of the Kherson offensive.  The initial phase of that attack involved a strong UAF feint towards Kherson from Mykolaiv that was blunted, inspiring the Russians to launch spoiling attacks in that direction and the media to heavily report the UAF Counteroffensive had failed before it started.   The blow in Kharkiv came a week or so later.

The current attacks could be an example of that tactic writ large, especially since the Forbes confirmed the two brigades that went on the attack last night were not two of the units that were withdrawn for training/refit for the offensive.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 05, 2023, 06:48:41 PM
Also of note, and this is interesting.  A lot of bloggers depend on the deep state map for updates on front lines. 

Well, for the first time deepstate won't be updating their maps.  There's no map update today and they say they don't intend to update for some time.

Take that for what its worth.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 05, 2023, 06:52:41 PM
losses according to russia

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fx47cSPWIAkYM3N?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 05, 2023, 08:36:15 PM
 :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1665748337067171840
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 05, 2023, 09:09:19 PM
That'll make you give-up Vodka real quick.  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 05, 2023, 10:34:11 PM
Star, I think that video would be better accompanied by the Benny Hill theme!     :music:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 05, 2023, 11:16:11 PM
I dont disagree.

Sasha, was that village over there this morning?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 06, 2023, 01:09:37 AM
Quote from: Windigo on June 05, 2023, 10:42:47 AMThis BRICS thing is just nonsense. At the end of the day, no matter what the currency is in a deal or in a chain of deals; it all gets converted to US$ in the end. Everything is still benchmarked against the US$ even BRICS transactions.

I'm not worried about the prospect of a rival global currency.  I agree that it's far-fetched.

I'm worried that Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are all looking to work together, despite the fact that the Russian head of state is currently a wanted war criminal and Russia has embarked on a steady path of military conquest and expansion for more than a decade now!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 06, 2023, 07:22:26 AM
BRICS might have a chance of working economically, if Russia and China dropped out.  :evil:

Still, it's worth remembering that 'money' per se (and the value of 'currency' consequently, i.e. the physical representation of money) is a metaphysical concept: it has value only to the extent that persons agree with each other (in fair-togetherness) to use something as a value-holder for exchange of goods and services.

Once the US economy reaches a debt where we can't pay sufficient interest on our obligations, that's the end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency at least (and maybe the end of a lot more of our economy than that).

Any shared value of money agreed to among nations is legit in itself, as long as people agree to have faith (i.e. trust) in each other for its shared use, and if the US dollar no longer has trust for a reserve currency, some other currency could theoretically take that place.

This is the BRICS' overt goal, which I don't think can succeed even if the dollar goes down in flames, due to the inherent instability, corruption, and vulnerability of the nations involved. (India is the best economic hope for that team, and INDIA of all places has gone into a demographic meltdown!) But even if they don't become the new reserve currency, they can still team up for a monetary value of exchange.

I guarantee that the more tyrannical sides of that attempt, especially China, see this as the start of an economic union which is the start of a political union in effect and eventually in reality with the strongest economy of the union dictating terms: meaning them.

From China's perspective, they've been at war with the world for considerably longer than I've been alive, and that has never changed, only the means of waging war -- they'll see this as effective conquest of the other nations involved, including anyone else they can sucker into the scheme.

Just as importantly, that's how they see the United States in our (floundering) status as the world's reserve currency: the US controls the world, so whoever controls the US controls the world.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 06, 2023, 07:30:17 AM
Meanwhile, looks like the Russians(?) breached the Nova Kakhovka dam upstream of Kherson.

This of course can only mean they have finally succeeded in victory!  :evil:

Lots of placing reporting it this morning, but I chose Suchomimus. Skip to 1:08, to jump over the possibly scammy intro...


As someone downthread (on the video) noted, this could be a tad concerning about the nuclear plant's ability to cool itself, or else continue functioning at all, at Zaporizhzhia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 06, 2023, 07:32:51 AM
Torsten Heinrich has some commentary on the situation:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 06, 2023, 07:44:46 AM
So, who benefits and suffers from this?

1.) The Russians apparently controlled (most of?) the dam, and had mined it since November, and had brought the water height to maximum over the past few days while still controlling it. This doesn't guarantee they're the ones who blew it, but that would be a reasonable first guess.

2.) Probably the nuclear plant is okay: it has been offline for a year now, and the rods continue to reduce heat, needing less cooling, so its own cooling ponds will probably be sufficient. But this would seem to delay it ever getting back to work. At the least this means Russia (or maybe Ukraine) has no intention of using that power plant in the foreseeable future. This would be less problematic for the Russians, unless they still intended to hold territory supplied by the power plant.

3.) This is going to mess up the potable water supply to the Crimean peninsula, which cannot in any imaginable way help whomever holds Crimea. Currently that's the Russians. So either the Russians think they can't hold Crimea for the foreseeable future, or the Ukrainians are desperate to get Russian control out but also don't plan to hold Crimea (per se) for the foreseeable future. Anyone planning to hold Crimea usably as a population center (thus also as a logistics center) would want to deny it to the enemy using sluice gate control, which can be turned on and off, rather than blowing a dam which cannot be feasibly fixed anytime soon. Blowing the dam suggests short-term military occupation of Crimea at best, perhaps as a tradeoff for some short-term military advantage gained by the flooding. (Which would seem to benefit Russia right now?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 06, 2023, 07:53:03 AM
just a morning drive.....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1666061372931571721
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 06, 2023, 09:14:54 AM
Anyone else find it ironic that the Crimea, almost completely surrounded by water, has no drinking water of it's own? So...Dry-mea now?  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on June 06, 2023, 10:09:38 AM
The Russian Airforce awol? First I heard of this. Whats up with that?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 06, 2023, 10:32:45 AM
Bah, Russians not need drinking water, that is vodka for what for!

Whether potatoes to make vodka need drinking water is somewhat more important.

(It's seriously an agricultural problem: they have desalinators for people, though those will be very strained with armed forces also around, maybe beyond capacity. But without agricultural water, the Crimea cannot feed itself over even the medium term, plus other things in the infrastructure that need fresh not salt water.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 06, 2023, 10:49:37 AM
Some brief footage and commentary from the Enforcer


"The largest humanitarian crisis in Europe in seven decades."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 06, 2023, 10:53:39 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on June 06, 2023, 10:49:37 AMSome brief footage and commentary from the Enforcer


"The largest humanitarian crisis in Europe in seven decades."

'kinell...

No doubt "Nato expansion made us do it", reports Sergey Lavrov. /s
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 06, 2023, 05:42:09 PM
This question is out of left field in light of today's dam attack but I was thinking about this on my drive home.

Have there been any verified instances of hand to hand fighting in this war?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 06, 2023, 06:02:17 PM
lots,  theres a fair amount spread around the videos Ive posted involving trench clearing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 06, 2023, 06:26:23 PM
Interesting. I'm sure the Ukrainians welcome any opportunity to literally beat the living shit out of any Russians they can.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 06, 2023, 06:45:48 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1666174186685956099
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 06, 2023, 06:49:52 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfXrGtqWAAYB_Cm?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 07, 2023, 01:37:43 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1666185822842880000
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on June 07, 2023, 03:27:28 AM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/leopard-tanks-russia-claims-it-destroyed-were-actually-tractors

Russia's Defense Ministry proudly announced on Tuesday that its troops had destroyed eight Leopard tanks while it fended off a Ukrainian counteroffensive, offering a dramatic video as evidence. But the fearsome tanks shown in the video turned out to be nothing more than farming equipment: two combine harvesters and a John Deere tractor, according to several pro-Russian military bloggers. "A disgrace, we just have no words," wrote the popular Military Informer Telegram channel. "Why the fuck did they pass these off as Leopards?" another pro-Russian channel fumed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 07, 2023, 07:25:00 AM
Because in post-Soviet, anti-Soviet Ukraine, TRACTORS AS DANGEROUS AS LEOPARD II!  :pirate:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 07, 2023, 07:27:50 AM
https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1666176515476713474

This was posted downthread of the thread from Tartarigami posted by Star.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 07, 2023, 07:29:46 AM
Some grim humor from the same thread:

https://twitter.com/rbukovansky/status/1666177044227534851
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 07, 2023, 07:51:16 AM
Lots of quick implications, including other dams under Russian control which might also be targeted. Any spring offensive in this area has been delayed by at least a month.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 07, 2023, 10:02:45 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on June 07, 2023, 07:25:00 AMBecause in post-Soviet, anti-Soviet Ukraine, TRACTORS AS DANGEROUS AS LEOPARD II!  :pirate:

Yes, Ukrainian tractors are tools of war...

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/KMZ7UuTPc4P6CU_sSxrEXCAl93RaXMd17HiqbNHVbXIoiuIVb9mQd8VeZglC0dNvROXFY9uCpWBlCubdEsJO7rsmjwvt4OgkdhHhIquwvwEL7aTcnAcTw4NeiyocH-ELgFoLT6ILYw=w2400)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 07, 2023, 10:09:05 AM
Petraeus was on CNN (I think) this morning, and put forward the third theory...that that Russians were just not managing the damn. They let too much water pressure build up. The theory is that the damn gave way due to Russian negligence, albeit at a very suspicious time. He was not pushing this as what definitely happened, but was saying this is one theory. Apparently the damn was showing strain in the weeks leading up to the break.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 07, 2023, 10:15:50 AM
I agree it's time the Ukrainian Beaver Engineers were deployed to confound the Orcs. They've been waiting patiently in reserve and have been equipped with new tungsten dental implants just for this sort of situation. The only down side is it's really hard to communicate in Ukrainian by hitting the water with your flat tails and...once they get started, there's no telling where they'll end-up damming, could be Bosporus  next.  :beaver2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 07, 2023, 10:21:29 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on June 07, 2023, 10:02:45 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on June 07, 2023, 07:25:00 AMBecause in post-Soviet, anti-Soviet Ukraine, TRACTORS AS DANGEROUS AS LEOPARD II!  :pirate:

Yes, Ukrainian tractors are tools of war...

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/KMZ7UuTPc4P6CU_sSxrEXCAl93RaXMd17HiqbNHVbXIoiuIVb9mQd8VeZglC0dNvROXFY9uCpWBlCubdEsJO7rsmjwvt4OgkdhHhIquwvwEL7aTcnAcTw4NeiyocH-ELgFoLT6ILYw=w2400)

I would pay actual money for that expansion!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 07, 2023, 05:00:47 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1666514248401289216
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 07, 2023, 07:31:40 PM
'Ukrainian combat birds and armed mosquitos??'

What the fuck, Russia? Really. :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 07, 2023, 08:23:54 PM
North Korea nods sagely and points to robot locusts...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 07, 2023, 10:33:36 PM
My money's on those giant, radioactive catfish the Ukrainians are growing in the Chernobyl cooling ponds. Any day now they'll be ready to swim up the Volga and eat Moscow. Shhh... Don't tell anybody. It's still a secret.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 08, 2023, 07:14:27 AM
I don't understand modern slang very well: if those "catfish" turned out to be beavers after all, would that be an example of "catfishing"?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 08, 2023, 09:16:31 AM
Possibly. So what do we call, Combat Birds and Armed Mosquitoes? Besides, 'Impossible'.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 08, 2023, 10:14:43 AM
Not sure about combat mosquitoes... the others would clearly be "zlye ptitsy" like in the video game. :twirl:


Though come to think of it, maybe they deserve to be hit by other very successful combat mosquitoes...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 08, 2023, 03:11:59 PM
a slow rolling start

Activity throughout #Ukraine is consistent with a variety of indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are underway across the theater.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1666839787850825728.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 08, 2023, 03:15:01 PM
Quick but detailed notes on why the Russians had to be the ones behind the catastrophic crumbling of the dam (not natural failure, not Ukraine):

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 08, 2023, 03:22:38 PM
Yikes.  Yes, the counteroffensive is rolling and not off to a great start. 

Near Novopokrovka, Russian milbloggers posted video that was confirmed about an hour ago by the BBC and Forbes showing a column of UAF Leopard 2's moving towards the front line, following dangerously close to each other, almost bumper to bumper. 

Russian drones spotted the column and directed in heavy arty fire.  From the videos it looks as if there was a fairly significant loss of Leopards as they instantly bunched up and could not retreat or disperse due to their formation.  Russians are happily sharing the images of knocked out Leopards, not farm equipment this time.   

This is why training matters.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 08, 2023, 03:36:58 PM
Forbes now has a full article on the ambush with video..

https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2023/06/08/videos-keep-circulating-that-claim-destruction-of-german-leopard-2-tanks-in-ukraine/?sh=677c7eb712bf

The article does point out that on analysis it looks like this might've been an edit of two separate engagements.   

At least one Leopard II looks like a total loss.  Lots of chatter on Telegram and Twitter that the UAF commander of that column needs to be relieved if he made it out.   Former tankers are chewing the video up for bunching the column up that badly.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 08, 2023, 03:37:10 PM
all quadrants are clickable.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1666828474147897345
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 08, 2023, 03:45:31 PM
fwiw the blow out panels worked as advertised which likely means the crew is fine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 08, 2023, 04:18:56 PM
attack fish

https://twitter.com/i/status/1666913237940736000
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 08, 2023, 06:08:57 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1666943836709371907
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 09, 2023, 01:53:44 PM
Zeihan's quick comments on the opening moves:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 09, 2023, 08:19:32 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1667336834119086081
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 10, 2023, 12:01:14 PM
 :buck2:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1667571967057174532
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 10, 2023, 12:07:41 PM
thats one way to keep in touch.......

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyRqH0DWYAEcKFn?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 10, 2023, 01:54:30 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyNW9w0WYAMkT1u?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 10, 2023, 02:10:52 PM
Yeesh. 

The UAF 33rd and 47th Brigades have lost up to 5% of their NATO provided mechanized equipment in half a day, mostly due to the UAF not deploying them properly against mines and fortifications. 

Good news is that there is evidence that despite that setback, a lot of the equipment is salvageable and there's word that there's been at least one breakthrough.  In one circumstance Russians retreated into their own minefields and suffered losses.

The Russian defense lines are actually surprisingly not that deep and if the UAF can force their Armor past the initial two lines of defense, they've got open ground running to the sea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2023, 02:17:37 PM
russian air defense at work

https://twitter.com/i/status/1667956356517601284
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 11, 2023, 03:46:15 PM
Russia's bullish propaganda on their victories in the counteroffensive might end up being their downfall. 

The losses inflicted on the 33rd and 47th Brigades south of Orikhiv caused the Russians to heavily commit reserves, air and artillery to that sector, including shifting units from the now impassible areas of the Dnieper to further blunt the attack and launch limited counterattacks. 

The Russians are also heavily exposing their artillery in the Orikhiv sector, expending ammo at a very high rate and putting themselves in the open for counterbattery fire. 

However, even the UAF OPSEC silence hasn't been able to hide that there have been major gains, deep into the fortifications farther to the east south of Neskuchne, along with a potential double envelopment move aimed at Pryutne. 

The UAF have seized the heights  in the east and they're doing very well while Russian reserves are now fully committed at Orikhiv.

Still, some interesting observations from ISW that are of note.  One, the Russians did not do what was expected and fill the entire first line of defenses with mobilized reservists.   Instead they created mixed brigade structures where reservists are bolstered by Guards units that were freed up from the Kherson region.   The UAF's delays in the counteroffensive likely allowed the Russians to make these moves and very heavily strengthen their hand. 

One wonders if the UAF's decision to delay for perfect conditions and full deployment of NATO gear was the best one.  The Russians did not have these forces in place or ready in March, and the more than 60 days that passed since probably benefited the Russians far more than Ukrainians.

Their fortifications and mixed capability unit structure has managed to achieve something the Russians have so far failed to do when the UAF is on the attack, they've managed to keep their men from routing at first contact.

What does that mean from here?  To me, mostly that the first phase of the counteroffensive will be bloody, but that if they can achieve breakthroughs and flank the entrenchments that we could actually see some real encirclements.

For both sides this is absolutely the proverbial "moment of crisis" in the battle. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2023, 04:21:05 PM
I love you  :kiss:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 11, 2023, 04:33:28 PM
I know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2023, 05:29:46 PM
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/jm0zr.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2023, 05:31:09 PM
im lettting this roll out another few days before linking maps and shit.
but overall things are not going well for russia it seems.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 12, 2023, 03:29:33 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1668164403559006208
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 12, 2023, 05:08:39 AM
Hm... is it better for the Russian Guards to be committed up front on defense to help hold against routs now, where they can be caught and potentially scorped in a blaze of glory; compared to the Ukrainians going earlier with less equipment and training to rout the softer defenders from their softer defenses but being caught by the Guards on their own pincer movements?

This is aside from whether weather really would have allowed a proper Uk counter-offensive earlier, and whether (probably?) the Russians would have blown the dam anyway at that time upon signs of the kickoff coming.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 12, 2023, 06:02:03 AM
Fortunately, not every Leopard 2 destroyed is really a Leopard 2:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/147345h/found_footage_of_russians_hitting_the_leopard_2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3#
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 12, 2023, 06:10:29 AM
Since this bridge has been confirmed destroyed, but not by how, hopefully this is not an OpSec problem:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667893691271266304?s=20

Also, could be one of several bridges in a long rail line between northern Crimea and Melitpol, so again hopefully doesn't reveal troop or asset locations.

Severing this rail line at a bridge is a BIG deal!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 12, 2023, 06:54:21 AM
Wagner refuses to sign a contract being integrated into the Russian army per se, while maintaining command loyalty directly to Putin (basically) -- who was the one who said they have to sign up as integrated into the Russian army per se!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/146sh83/the_pmc_wagner_will_not_sign_any_contracts_with/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 12, 2023, 10:45:28 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on June 12, 2023, 05:08:39 AMHm... is it better for the Russian Guards to be committed up front on defense to help hold against routs now, where they can be caught and potentially scorped in a blaze of glory; compared to the Ukrainians going earlier with less equipment and training to rout the softer defenders from their softer defenses but being caught by the Guards on their own pincer movements?

Interestingly, the integration of the Guards units has so far seemed to be less of a tactic of forcing troops to stand and die, and more a tactic of being able to conduct a more active defense and executing organized fighting retreats when necessary. 

Over the course of the day yesterday, the Russians have lost significant ground around Makarivka and surrendered Novodarivka, inflicting casualties but falling back to prepared lines of defense rather than routing. 

The double envelopment move towards Pryiutne is still moving forward, but the Russians have prevented an encirclement at Rivnopil by conducting phased fighting retreats. 

Had the area been purely held by reservists they would've done what the Russians did last year and break and run with few significant casualties inflicted on the attackers. 

The more professional units on the front have also allowed the Russians to start using UAF's own tactics against them.   There has been significantly better command and control on the front, and the Russians have made heavy use of drones in spotting and directing Air and Artillery very effectively. 

The Russians ground troops have also been coordinating with Helicopter assets much better than we've seen at any other time in the war, allowing their Helos to engage at standoff range much more safely. 

These tactics have worked.  Half of the Mine clearing Leopards provided to Ukraine have been knocked out and at this point 21% of all Bradley's supplied to the UAF have been destroyed/disabled in the first 48 hours of the offensive. 

The Russian army clearly still has significant institutional problems, hence the fact that they're on the defensive right now when a major Spring/Summer Offensive should've been something in the works for the Russians for months.  However, it seems the Russians have finally started to learn and are making the UAF pay dearly in the breaching phase of the offensive. 

Of course the other side of this is that, despite the heavy losses of western equipment we've still not seen the UAF deploy the bulk of its heavy brigades.  They likely won't until there's a very practical breach in the final Russian lines of fortifications.



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 12, 2023, 11:05:17 AM
QuoteThese tactics have worked.  Half of the Mine clearing Leopards provided to Ukraine have been knocked out and at this point 21% of all Bradley's supplied to the UAF have been destroyed/disabled in the first 48 hours of the offensive.

actually this isnt quite the case.  that photo of the 3 leo r's knocked out has been proven to be heavily edited.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 12, 2023, 11:12:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 12, 2023, 11:05:17 AM
QuoteThese tactics have worked.  Half of the Mine clearing Leopards provided to Ukraine have been knocked out and at this point 21% of all Bradley's supplied to the UAF have been destroyed/disabled in the first 48 hours of the offensive.

actually this isnt quite the case.  that photo of the 3 leo r's knocked out has been proven to be heavily edited.

Yeah, I take some of this with a grain of salt.  The Russians have shown the same image of one convoy ambush from about three different angles. 

Business Insider was quoting a Pentagon official on the numbers so I defaulted to that intel assuming they knew something we didn't. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 12, 2023, 12:07:57 PM
Consensus here in Finland (Leo 2R is a local variant, all 6 handed out to Ukraine) for instance by the guys behind the live UA map (https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194) is that those three vehicles are losses indeed.

On a positive note, it still seems Russian are milking the two notable incidents to the maximum, so let us hope elsewhere it is going more smoothly.

Early days indeed.

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1668280249203712001 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 12, 2023, 12:50:57 PM
I dunno... editing video isnt that hard.
either way they were most likely recovered and fixed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 12, 2023, 08:48:27 PM
good update thread with good maps.

https://twitter.com/jrt_191/status/1668416807479156736
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 13, 2023, 01:11:21 AM
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/armor-expert-breaks-down-ukraines-loss-of-bradleys-during-breaching-operation
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 13, 2023, 02:13:21 AM
so how do you think the next few weeks or months should play out?
as the AFUK advance should they bypass major towns and cities like Melitople?
head south or north or both.  pressure the Crimea or go for the propaganda of retaking Mariupol?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 15, 2023, 05:58:09 AM
Well, my guess is that Wagner refuses to sign up on contract to fight again, and offers to take up all other volunteers who don't want to sign up under Russia on contract again, while the Southern Front general gets artied off the planet and another general parks his division in the open on parade-ground muster for two hours within arty range which leads to the highest 1-minute Russian casualties since WW2.

I know, that all sounds insane, but I believe history will bear this out!  :evil:


(Might as well have some fun with the forum glitch reset.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 15, 2023, 06:00:21 AM
Meanwhile, more up to date, Zeihan today on why there can be no peaceful offramp for Russia, not now, not later, never could have been, including if Putin "accidentally duck tapes himself to a lawn chair before he goes swimming"  :evil:


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 15, 2023, 06:07:55 AM
Denys Davydov catches up today:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 16, 2023, 11:02:57 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1669660787856556033
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 16, 2023, 02:54:24 PM
I had moles in my front yard that bad once. Diverting a local river to flood them will usually work.  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 16, 2023, 10:28:22 PM
some interesting bits here:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1669745879757238273
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 17, 2023, 12:56:05 AM
important world shaking shit going here!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1669843958338314240
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 17, 2023, 01:15:28 AM
this is a good one.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1669811749602701315.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 17, 2023, 02:17:13 PM
With Prigozhin it sounds like Goodfellas' 'real greaseball sh*t' - Russian style.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 18, 2023, 01:26:38 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1670446450071805952
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 18, 2023, 02:42:38 PM
thats a big bang!
pause at 1:03 and I think we have the turret toss champion here.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1670510694838546436
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 18, 2023, 03:12:35 PM
Or maybe the Ukes are just finally using anti matter warheads in their RPGs? 

Given the fog of war we need to be open to all the possibilities here...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 18, 2023, 06:01:17 PM
brown pants moment

https://twitter.com/i/status/1670550341501304840
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 19, 2023, 12:33:35 PM
a very good case for contra rotating propellers

https://twitter.com/i/status/1670827104731119624
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 19, 2023, 04:38:42 PM
how it started:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzAnfojWwAA-Rid?format=jpg&name=900x900)

how its going:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzAnfyDWAAAVHU1?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 20, 2023, 12:35:43 PM
not the most exciting but interesting nonetheless.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1671184447536877570
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 21, 2023, 04:46:00 AM
Lessons learnt: anti-UAV measures everywhere.

https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1671200235090071553
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 21, 2023, 10:06:50 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1671207967843139584 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1671207967843139584)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 21, 2023, 10:15:04 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1671271291683315714
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 21, 2023, 10:16:37 AM
so if this offensive is going so badly why is there not lots of russian footage of AFU being wrecked?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 21, 2023, 10:22:26 AM
Holy shitballs on that Kakhkovka reservoir.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 21, 2023, 10:28:17 AM
yup
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on June 22, 2023, 01:10:43 AM
Quote from: Gusington on June 21, 2023, 10:22:26 AMHoly shitballs on that Kakhkovka reservoir.

Give the exposed sediments a bit of time to dry and harden and thats an easy crossing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 22, 2023, 02:03:36 AM
News articles said it would take a month for most of the affected areas a month to dry out.  I think the Dnipro is still intact. Take that FWIW.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 22, 2023, 02:07:20 AM
winning with a stick!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1671530744957620231
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 22, 2023, 05:21:06 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1671957821414318091

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzPdJ3PXgAECPhG?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzPktGqWYAATnEK?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 22, 2023, 08:21:27 PM
 :cowboy3:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1672029829573787648
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on June 23, 2023, 09:37:49 AM
Well that is significant.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 23, 2023, 10:54:02 AM
Quote from: Windigo on June 23, 2023, 09:37:49 AMWell that is significant.

I'm not sure it is: a resolution has no effect on the actual terms of a treaty, so this is more like congress giving their opinion on a topic.  As a matter of law, renaming a post office has more weight.  With that said, it will irritate the Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 23, 2023, 01:58:53 PM
The plant is in annexed territory.  Is it a valid question to ask "why would the bear want to be the cause of radioactive material to be released into what they consider their territory?" 

Remember, the winds blow both eastwards and westwards. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 23, 2023, 04:16:40 PM
The Second Russian Revolution? or just the usual defenestration?

CBS is reporting:

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group appears to be threatening an armed rebellion against Russia's military leadership, after accusing it of deliberately shelling his forces on Friday.

Wagner's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in an audio message on Friday claimed his forces would now punish Russia's defense minister and chief of general staff, telling other units to stand down and not offer resistance.

"There are 25,000 of us and we are coming to sort things out. ... Those who want to join us, it's time to finish with this mess," Prigozhin said.

Prigozhin also accused defense minister Sergey Shoigu of "cowardly fleeing" from Rostov in southern Russia and ordering an attack on Wagner forces.


We've seen a bunch of dirt being thrown by Prigo in the past, so I don't know if this is just bluster or if real.

But I'll give even odds on Prigo falling out of a window any day now.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-mercenary-chief-appears-to-threaten-rebellion-questions-invasion/ar-AA1cWwse?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c20787158d414870ba5a27f621950610&ei=12 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-mercenary-chief-appears-to-threaten-rebellion-questions-invasion/ar-AA1cWwse?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c20787158d414870ba5a27f621950610&ei=12)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on June 23, 2023, 04:36:07 PM
I think the UN should step in and make the power plant a demilitarized zone and occupied by a neutral force. Only way to ensure that the plausible deniability bullshit that Russia does as part of their hybrid war doctrine doesn't explode the power plant like they did with the dam.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 23, 2023, 04:55:26 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on June 23, 2023, 04:16:40 PMThe Second Russian Revolution? or just the usual defenestration?

CBS is reporting:

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group appears to be threatening an armed rebellion against Russia's military leadership, after accusing it of deliberately shelling his forces on Friday.

Wagner's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in an audio message on Friday claimed his forces would now punish Russia's defense minister and chief of general staff, telling other units to stand down and not offer resistance.

"There are 25,000 of us and we are coming to sort things out. ... Those who want to join us, it's time to finish with this mess," Prigozhin said.

Prigozhin also accused defense minister Sergey Shoigu of "cowardly fleeing" from Rostov in southern Russia and ordering an attack on Wagner forces.


We've seen a bunch of dirt being thrown by Prigo in the past, so I don't know if this is just bluster or if real.

But I'll give even odds on Prigo falling out of a window any day now.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-mercenary-chief-appears-to-threaten-rebellion-questions-invasion/ar-AA1cWwse?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c20787158d414870ba5a27f621950610&ei=12 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-mercenary-chief-appears-to-threaten-rebellion-questions-invasion/ar-AA1cWwse?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c20787158d414870ba5a27f621950610&ei=12)

Lots of noise - and maybe it's just that - about this now.

https://twitter.com/sputnik_not/status/1672355756912279553
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 23, 2023, 05:16:37 PM
Off to bed here in my timezone. Let us see what tomorrow brings  :shocked:

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1672359782940913669
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 23, 2023, 05:55:41 PM
Looks like this time Prigozhin is for real.  Moscow times is now reporting that the FSB has ordered Prigozhin arrested and hearing some reports that there is now active fighting between Wagner and Russian troops.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 23, 2023, 06:07:17 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on June 23, 2023, 05:55:41 PMLooks like this time Prigozhin is for real.  Moscow times is now reporting that the FSB has ordered Prigozhin arrested and hearing some reports that there is now active fighting between Wagner and Russian troops.

Yep, Prigo has gone and done it.

Will be interesting to see if anyone follows him and if he becomes a real threat. Or does he just do a majestic face plant out of a 20 story window?

There is some satisfaction in seeing evil men go after each other. I'd be happy about this except for those thousands of nukes that Russia has sitting around.

Think I'll double check on my stash of potassium iodide tablets.

Wapo's reporting:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wagner-mercenary-boss-faces-arrest-over-incitement-to-armed-rebellion/ar-AA1cXkyk?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0a2296e8a7494b6a80f1ac5558b01bca&ei=8#image=1 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wagner-mercenary-boss-faces-arrest-over-incitement-to-armed-rebellion/ar-AA1cXkyk?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0a2296e8a7494b6a80f1ac5558b01bca&ei=8#image=1)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 23, 2023, 06:14:12 PM
Tass is confirming that Wagner has mutinied.  That's a big deal, Tass is just a propaganda arm. 

Hearing reports from Ukrainian sources that Russian forces in Bakhmut including VDV units are declaring for Prigozhin, but that's up in the air right now. 

Some twitter reports are claiming, with some unconfirmed photos, that there's an open revolt at the Wagner staging areas in Rostov and the governor there called out the territorial guard.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Dammit Carl! on June 23, 2023, 07:18:07 PM
Whoo, boy.  Spicy times in Russia tonight!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 23, 2023, 07:18:52 PM
Starting to sound like Death of Stalin already...

QuotePeskov: Putin had given orders to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Federal Security Service, Russian Guard Service due to the "attempted armed rebellion". A VChK-OGPU source commented on the situation in Moscow's Federal Security Service and Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs: "Everyone is up, arrived urgently. Now all the offices are like one big after-party. 80% of the staff reek of alcohol. Some of them can hardly stand on their feet. They can't be armed or sent anywhere. Friday night's the perfect time to start something like this. Everybody's standing around, waiting for something. No introductions. A couple of hours more and there'll be conflicts amongst them when they start to sober up".

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672393566289641474
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 23, 2023, 07:36:03 PM
More and more reports that Wagner troops are already on the road to Moscow from Rostov.

They've thrown up some blockades on the roads with National Guard units and closed the highway, but twitter is reporting that there have already been clashes between the blockades and Wagner and the National Guardsmen abandoned their positions. 

Telegram is reporting there's now a massive armored column heading north towards Moscow and calls for the National Guard units to join the "March to Justice".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 23, 2023, 07:51:19 PM
Who's in the mood for a fresh rewatch of Threads (1984)?   :undecided:   :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 23, 2023, 08:05:26 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on June 23, 2023, 07:51:19 PMWho's in the mood for a fresh rewatch of Threads (1984)?   :undecided:   :HideEyes:

Ugh. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

If Wagner is truly trying to march to Moscow, the Russian MOD doesn't have a whole lot available to throw in his way. 

However, any major column moving up a single highway in unfriendly territory is going to be extremely vulnerable to air strikes.  I can't imagine Wagner will be able to make the entire 12-16 hour trip unmolested. 

Prigozhin's making all kinds of statements right now rapid fire, saying they're on the move and they've already shot down helicopters, but there's still no real confirmation beyond a couple of videos.

I'm not entirely sure how sane Prigozhin actually is so I'm taking a lot of this with a grain of salt tonight.  There's a chance this could be really happening, and an equal chance that this could be the ravings of an unhinged lunatic.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 23, 2023, 08:08:29 PM
well, here's hoping we make it to Monday!   :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 23, 2023, 08:46:37 PM
Fuck
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on June 23, 2023, 09:19:14 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 23, 2023, 08:08:29 PMwell, here's hoping we make it to Monday!  :Party:

*serious fucking eyeroll*
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 23, 2023, 09:19:45 PM
Lots of videos now coming out after dawn.  It looks increasingly like Wagner has taken Rostov without a fight.

Significant numbers of Mercs seen on the street.  For Wagner to have been able to pull this off this swiftly in this area they likely had to be planning this for days if not longer. 

Support for that seems to be that Wagner mercs were calling home all week telling family to watch the news closely.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 23, 2023, 09:25:38 PM
There was a statement from Prigozhin specifically calling out Shoigou and another official whose name I don't have offhand.  This is pure layman speculation, but I'm guessing they didn't mention Putin in a bid to win over fence-sitters who don't want to cross Putin directly but recognize the obvious problem in the military, and are willing to go for "hang Shoigou and his lackeys" and once that's done, the goal posts move toward "hang Putin" which will then suddenly seem much more reasonable and achievable without fear of reprisal.

All joking aside from previous posts I am completely terrified at the idea of the head of Wagner having access to the Russian nuclear arsenal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 23, 2023, 09:34:56 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on June 23, 2023, 09:25:38 PMThere was a statement from Prigozhin specifically calling out Shoigou and another official whose name I don't have offhand.  This is pure layman speculation, but I'm guessing they didn't mention Putin in a bid to win over fence-sitters who don't want to cross Putin directly

Prigozhin mentioned he was doing this to save Putin from his lying advisers.  He's going to play the game of making his power play, taking control and then keeping Putin on as a figurehead under house arrest. 

And you're right to be concerned about him being in control of the arsenal.  He's making it clear that after he "frees" Putin that he'll still prosecute the war in Ukraine, but do it his way.  No idea what that means but I'd wager not good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 24, 2023, 12:45:21 AM
Regular Russian troops have been turning upon each other, apparently: that's a straight civil war, not a coup. A particular jet known to be used by high-ranking Kremlinites including Putin, is heading for Belarus. (I'm catching up on news, this was about three hours ago.)

I've also seen information, possibly only rumor, that a jet belonging to the Lukshenko family has left Belarus and reached Turkey. Either of those reports might be false, hard to tell right now, no official reports (and even official reports lie quite a bit in this fight.) That said, Putin (who hasn't shown up since the coup/cw started) might be flying to take over Belarus with Lushenko getting the hell out of the way while the getting is still good.

Meanwhile, Russia's defense ministry claims Ukraine has opened up a full offensive along the front line. Time will tell on that, I suppose...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 24, 2023, 01:02:33 AM
CNN reporting that a speech from Putin is on the way. (Where from? Don't know yet. Maybe not from Belarus? ;) )

Live-feed, possibly to be archived later.


Update, started at 2am CST. No subtitles, all Russian.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 24, 2023, 02:44:47 AM
In his unusually short speech Putin sided with Shoigu and Gerasimov, vowing to end this "stab in the back".

Bulldogs and carpets. Prigozhin, your move. From what I know his troops are fiercely loyal to him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 06:13:39 AM
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 06:57:52 AM
Quote from: Windigo on June 23, 2023, 09:19:14 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 23, 2023, 08:08:29 PMwell, here's hoping we make it to Monday!  :Party:

*serious fucking eyeroll*

once in a while I'm allowed to be pessimistic
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 07:34:24 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyQvdbgXoAAG5-X?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 07:46:31 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzY1FR6X0AUjhr4?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 24, 2023, 08:12:45 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 07:34:24 AM(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyQvdbgXoAAG5-X?format=jpg&name=900x900)

wait...wait...  I know this one.

"Girls und Panzer"  :Party:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on June 24, 2023, 08:31:38 AM
Fighting in Pavlovsk, Voronezh Oblast, halfway to Moscow from Rostov


https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672457164395364354
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on June 24, 2023, 08:33:49 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fl2aG1gX0AAF5wV.jpg:large) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNQBaoDWYAARmVZ.jpg)

What's wrong with this world when you can't even trust Nazi mercenaries anymore...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 24, 2023, 09:23:56 AM
Laurence Freedman with a long article describing how we got here and what might happen next.

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins-mutiny
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 12:33:43 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzZnnyMaYAEo22E?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 12:43:19 PM
Not sure I buy this but breaking now, Lukashenko is claiming he's reached a deal with Prigozhin and Wagner is backing down...

Media is claiming Prigozhin on the cusp of Moscow Prigozhin has sent a message ordering Wagner to turn back to their bases. 

I can't see why Prigozhin would turn back now so I imagine this is potentially smoke and mirrors.

Ok, and just now BBC is reporting this message just came from Prigozhin:

"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That's why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 24, 2023, 12:54:32 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 12:43:19 PMNot sure I buy this but breaking now, Lukashenko is claiming he's reached a deal with Prigozhin and Wagner is backing down...

Media is claiming Prigozhin on the cusp of Moscow Prigozhin has sent a message ordering Wagner to turn back to their bases. 

I can't see why Prigozhin would turn back now so I imagine this is potentially smoke and mirrors.

Ok, and just now BBC is reporting this message just came from Prigozhin:

"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That's why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."



With all the insanity going on, I can't discount this, but it seems to be that Prigozhin has effectively "crossed the Rubicon".  As I see it, if he pulls back, he will merely delay his falling from a 10th floor of an apartment building by a couple of months....

FWIW, this is what the advance allegedly looked like a couple of hours ago:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzZZAlyXoAAhJFv?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 12:57:57 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on June 24, 2023, 12:54:32 PMWith all the insanity going on, I can't discount this, but it seems to be that Prigozhin has effectively "crossed the Rubicon".  As I see it, if he pulls back, he will merely delay his falling from a 10th story apartment building by a couple of months....


Literally thought the exact same thing.  There was no coming back from this the instant Putin went on TV and called him a traitor. 

There's no deal that Putin can adhere to in this.  Prigozhin is a dead man walking unless he wins.  You can't take a shot at the King and miss.

In this day in age with AI as effective as it is and Russian's black hat hacking background, you can't believe anything until it's got extreme confirmation. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 01:23:19 PM
Video now of Wagner troops leaving Rostov. 

Reports are that Prigozhin gets virtual control of the Russian MOD and Shoigu and Gerasimov are out.

If true this makes Putin look extremely weak to the point of total powerlessness.  There's no way he can actually hold to a deal like that and maintain his hold on the country. 

On the other hand Putin might be closer to the grave than is expected.  His long silence on this and weak statement spoke volumes.  This isn't the strongman of a decade ago.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 24, 2023, 02:01:53 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 12:33:43 PM(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzZnnyMaYAEo22E?format=jpg&name=medium)

I would legitimately follow that satire thread, if it existed!

(It does seem to 'present' as a twitter page, huh...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 24, 2023, 02:38:26 PM
I really don't believe in conspiracies...especially large and complex ones...but there is something about Progo's move that seems choreographed.

Part of Progo's rant yesterday was along the lines that Shoigu and Gerasimov lied to Putin about the reasons for the war. Progo said 'Ukraine did not have any Nazis' (imagine that) and that the whole war was just to boost Shoigu's career...or words to that effect.

Maybe Progo is giving Putin a 'Get Out of Ukraine' free card. Next week we see Gerasimov's and Shoigu's heads stuck on spikes over the Kremlin gate and Putin offering tempting terms to the Ukrainians.  And as far as Progo?  He gets whatever he wants.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 02:49:18 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on June 24, 2023, 02:38:26 PMI really don't believe in conspiracies...especially large and complex ones...but there is something about Progo's move that seems choreographed.


I would not be shocked if this was a intricate play for Putin to remove Shoigu and his supporters from the MOD.

Shoigu has been very out of favor for some time but he was too entrenched to simply fire.   There's a possibility that as Putin's health declines that this kind of extreme action was the only way for him to reliably take back control of his own military. 

It's especially strange that Lukashenko was the man to negotiate this.  No one at all believes he's a true independent and he doesn't go to the bathroom unless Putin gives him leave to do so.  For him to swoop in and be the voice of reason is beyond unbelievable.

This is in a realm of surrealism that is extreme even for Russia. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 24, 2023, 02:52:18 PM
Zeihan takes a break from a birthday party he was attending (apparently a kids' party at a school) to talk about the situation and the logistic/economic situation around it:



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 24, 2023, 04:49:23 PM
Can I come out of my bunker in Pennsylvania now?

So...this was an orchestrated power play perpetrated by Putin (with Prigozhin's help?) to re-org the Russian MOD...and perhaps ratchet down the Ukraine War??

Am I interpreting everything correctly? Can I worry less about a nuclear holocaust tonight?

I have many questions still.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 05:09:55 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 24, 2023, 04:49:23 PMCan I come out of my bunker in Pennsylvania now?

So...this was an orchestrated power play perpetrated by Putin (with Prigozhin's help?) to re-org the Russian MOD...and perhaps ratchet down the Ukraine War??

Am I interpreting everything correctly? Can I worry less about a nuclear holocaust tonight?

I have many questions still.

No one has a clue. 

The last reports are that Prigozhin gets immunity and will go into "exile" in Belarus and Wagner will be folded into the Russian Army as a new Guards division. 

The Russian high command is almost sure to be removed.  Shoigu and Gerasimov will possibly be made to take the fall.  Don't be shocked if they're up on treason charges.

Prighozhin may end up behind the scenes getting say over who replaces the Russian MOD and if so, that will make him the defacto leader of the Russian military and therefore make Putin a prisoner in the Kremlin.  Igor Girkin came right out and said this would be the case. 

The war will continue but done Prighozhin's way, which could mean mass conscription and use of blocking forces.  Bury Ukraine in corpses and make every Ukrainian city Bakhmut.

Or, Prighozhin could play the hero and push for negotiations that makes Russia out to be the winner, at least internally.  He could easily push Putin to make Shoigu, Gerasimov, Patrushev and Medvedev the bad guys that misled Russia into a meaningless war and put them all against the wall, thereby consolidating his power and making sure the line of succession is guaranteed. 

We just don't know.  This is where we say again, the only predictable thing in Russia is its unpredictability.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 05:29:14 PM
what the actual fuck just happened?   :uglystupid2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 05:31:57 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 05:29:14 PMwhat the actual fuck just happened?   :uglystupid2:

Russia.  Russia happened.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 24, 2023, 05:38:28 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 05:31:57 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 05:29:14 PMwhat the actual fuck just happened?   :uglystupid2:

Russia.  Russia happened.
I'm going back to playing games.  They make more sense.....  :laugh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 24, 2023, 05:41:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 06:13:39 AM

You know, that song is actually much more conservative than it seems.

Now, if you want to listen to one of the Beatles going revolutionary, try listening to Lennon's "Imagine".

I am thankful that Prigozhin didn't get control of Russias  nuclear arsenal, but if this is the end, I would love to have seen more chaos caused for the Russians in Ukraine.

As with everything that happens in this war and with the country of Russia, it's difficult to know exactly what is going on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 05:45:03 PM
so what are the chances of the wagner guy replacing lubi in Belarus?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 05:49:31 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 05:31:57 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 05:29:14 PMwhat the actual fuck just happened?   :uglystupid2:

Russia.  Russia happened.

yes but what are the nuts and blots of it?  I dont expect an answer but I totally get russia being russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 05:51:48 PM
the first aftershocks

https://twitter.com/i/status/1672716909463195649
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 05:52:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 05:45:03 PMso what are the chances of the wagner guy replacing lubi in Belarus?

Possible.  Lukashenko is also in extremely poor health, possibly worse than Putin so there's about to be an open seat there.  Prighozhin may end up pulling his strings to the point that he's the power behind the throne, if not sitting in the throne himself. 

For now I imagine that Prighzhin will be happy to manipulate things behind the curtain as much as possible.  That was his MO when he was secretly behind Utkin founding Wagner, and he's preferred to be quiet all the way up until he started making his play at Bakhmut. 

There's no way Lukashenko actually talked him down, it's far more likely he was there to kiss the ring.

Prigozhin had Moscow by the balls this afternoon.  There was no real force capable of defending the city and the Russian Air Force was MIA.  There's no way he backed down without very good reason, he had far too much leverage. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 06:10:16 PM
and thats what doesnt make any sense.

anyway, back to my most recent binge watch of BSG.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on June 24, 2023, 06:16:26 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 06:10:16 PMand thats what doesnt make any sense.

anyway, back to my most recent binge watch of BSG.

you expect things that make sense to come out of Russia?   :justice:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 07:14:00 PM
A little more info sheds a bit more light on what happened this afternoon. 

Wagner had been meeting at least some resistance on the M4, having the road torn up and a few airstrikes that were seen off by Strela batteries. 

However, one strike by a KA-52 took out an fuel depot that Wagner had tried to seize off the M4 that would supply them in their assault on Moscow.  The Ka-52 was lost in the process but the depot was destroyed.

Further, Kadryov's Chechens declared for the MOD had had pulled out of the fight along the front lines and were moving in large numbers towards Rostov.  Wagner had left a couple of companies in the city to hold it, but they would not have been able to prevent being overrun. 

Putin and the MOD were out of Moscow hours before Wagner would arrive and he was well on his way to the Urals by the time that Wagner began to deploy for its taking of Moscow.  Moscow was defended by a mix of police, National Guard and some regular army forces setting up checkpoints. 

It was then that Prigozhin cut his deal.  Again, we don't know what the deal was, but it doesn't look like Wagner's hand was quite as strong as it looked earlier.  Wagner still could've taken Moscow, but with Kadryov's Chechens on his tail it would've been hard to hold it and they wouldn't have bagged any of the government leadership. 

Things will become more clear soon depending on what happens with the Russian MOD.  Make sure to note that whatever deal Putin made can be easily backed out of without Prigozhin in direct command of his troops. 

Even if the Chef is given promises for increased power behind the scenes, Minsk has windows too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 24, 2023, 07:53:35 PM
Was there any armor protecting Moscow? Does Wagner have their own armor?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 08:08:59 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 24, 2023, 07:53:35 PMWas there any armor protecting Moscow? Does Wagner have their own armor?

It doesn't seem there was, and yes, Wagner even had some T-90's. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 24, 2023, 08:15:54 PM
these fucking morons cant even revolution right!  :Loser:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 24, 2023, 08:40:17 PM
Russians sure are living in interesting days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 24, 2023, 08:51:11 PM
Since....... .... ........ .... ......Vikings rowed up the rivers?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on June 24, 2023, 08:59:43 PM
I wonder if Prigozhin was banking on some of the regular army publicly throwing in with him after having gotten some behind the scenes assurances that turned out to be insincere, and when those individuals chickened out he decided his best option was to cut a deal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 24, 2023, 09:26:54 PM
As a [former] analyst, it is always nice when some of the top people in the business are just as confused as you are:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1672677971532947461

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 09:32:57 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on June 24, 2023, 09:26:54 PMAs a [former] analyst, it is always nice when some of the top people in the business are just as confused as you are:

Dude, I talked today to my old professor of Russian history, my ex-DoD cybersecurity buddy with a Masters in history and a college friend who's got a Masters of Strategic Studies from the US Naval War College and they couldn't wrap their head around it. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 24, 2023, 09:43:22 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 09:32:57 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on June 24, 2023, 09:26:54 PMAs a [former] analyst, it is always nice when some of the top people in the business are just as confused as you are:

Dude, I talked today to my old professor of Russian history, my ex-DoD cybersecurity buddy with a Masters in history and a college friend who's got a Masters of Strategic Studies from the US Naval War College and they couldn't wrap their head around it. 
I'm not a Russian expert, and my experience is more on the military operations, vice political side of the house.  But I did it full time or part time for 30 years, and have degrees from both JMIC and NWC.  And I have no idea what I just saw. Prior to yesterday, Tom Clancy or any other military fiction guy would never have touched what we just witnessed for use as a back story in a novel.....   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 24, 2023, 09:52:36 PM
Putin: We are totally about to lose Crimea to the Uks. If only some actual Nazis would invade the Russian heartland, we might be able to pull this debacle out of the fire!

Priz: hold my vodka.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 25, 2023, 01:19:47 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on June 24, 2023, 05:31:57 PMRussia.  Russia happened.

I assume we just witnessed your typical Russian political theatre play, where you don't know what the play is about, who wrote it, or who the actors are, said our former ambassador to Moscow yesterday when asked about this.

Just to make sure, he was as confused as everyone else, and suggested to wait and see the next act(s), if any. 

For 24 hours, Ukrainians dared to dream that the warlord's action could be the fatal blow in the war, writes the Guardian. Well, not only Ukrainians :embarrassed:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/ukrainians-dream-wagner-action-fatal-blow-war-kyiv-mutiny

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 25, 2023, 04:46:53 AM
I still think the best answer was supplied above.  What happened?  Russia happened!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 25, 2023, 06:17:32 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on June 25, 2023, 04:46:53 AMI still think the best answer was supplied above.  What happened?  Russia happened!

"Anything may happen, at any time, but nothing ever changes."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on June 25, 2023, 10:11:58 AM
Acts of desperation on both Putin and Prigozhin.  Putin called up the leaders of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan for troops according to CNN. 
Supporting this, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/putin-lukewarm-response-allies-support-belarus-deescalate/

QuoteAccording to Kazakhstan's Presidential Administration, Kazakh leader Kassym Jomart Tokayev told Putin politely on the phone that the coup was an entirely internal Russian problem.

This is after Russian troops put down internal dissent/a possible coup against Tokayev in January 2022. https://gwynnedyer.com/2022/kazakhstan-a-quarrel-among-thieves/

It remains to be seen how Shoigu and Gerasimov will be disciplined for even failing to stop Wagner forces on the way to Moscow.  Kadyrov's star will be rising though.

What a beautiful wargame scenario Wagner vs.  Kadyrovites will be.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 25, 2023, 11:45:52 AM
Yeah, instant analysis today is that all parties involved managed to somehow arrange this where they all hugely lose.  Even if the Chef has been given huge promises, he surrendered his only leverage in guaranteeing Putin will keep to those promises. 

Putin isn't widely known for being a honest broker. 

Kadyrov, terrifyingly, is the only one that wins here.  He stayed loyal to the throne and kept himself out of the way for the most part.  He retains his personal army and may in fact get to strengthen it.

He's the last person you want to see coming out of a situation with more clout, but here we are.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 25, 2023, 12:20:50 PM
Lots of analyses out now, the better of them concluding we still don't know what exactly happened or how the future will pan out. Here's Michael Kofman.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1672999622032195584.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 25, 2023, 01:37:49 PM
Oh, there was one tweet to explain it all. We just missed it. Kudos :Hug:

https://twitter.com/salisbot/status/1672696145057808384
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 25, 2023, 02:30:36 PM
Here's one recommended by Michael Koffman: •   Tatiana Stanovaya  https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1672991911538196482
o   Below is a brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here's the perspective that currently seems most plausible:
o   1️ Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.
o   2️Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities  - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin's merits in taking Bakhmut (that's why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin's serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).
o   3️Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn't prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to "take the Kremlin" - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.
o   4️Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don't believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.
o   5️I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin's address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin's primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.
o   I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow. And no, Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that. I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 25, 2023, 02:31:38 PM
This is the Wall Street Journal's take:
•   Wall Street Journal, Wagner's Aborted Mutiny Leaves No Winners in Russia (June 25, 2023)   https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-russia-processes-wagners-aborted-mutiny-no-winners-emerge-in-the-aftermath-989d9345
o   Shaken by the Wagner mutiny, Russia began addressing the damage of Saturday's bout of violence as its citizens tried to understand how these events will affect President Vladimir Putin's regime, which has shown itself so unexpectedly vulnerable.
o   The whereabouts of Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin were unclear on Sunday, and neither he nor Putin made public remarks about the conditions under which the rebellion ended. The Russian minister of defense and the head of Russia's armed forces also remained out of sight. One widely shared conclusion in Russia, however, was that none of the key players in the power struggle that began when Prigozhin seized the southern city of Rostov on Saturday morning has been strengthened by the ordeal that brought the country to the edge of civil war....
o   Prigozhin, who showed Wagner's strength by marching two-thirds of the way toward Moscow with little opposition, ended up aborting the rebellion and accepting, at least for now, exile in Belarus. The Russian army and security forces, meanwhile, displayed little glory as their troops proved reluctant, if not outright afraid, to try stopping Wagner. ..."The entire system has lost yesterday, including Prigozhin, who is also part of the system," said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment who was in Moscow on Saturday. As for Putin, he added, "it turned out that the czar is not a real czar because he couldn't control a man from his own system who's supposed to be under his full control." As a result, the authority and self-image of the Russian state has sustained lasting damage, likely fueling future challenges to its writ regardless of what happens to Prigozhin. That is especially so as the war in Ukraine, ..."Our country will never be the way it used to be. Wagner's column didn't move on the asphalt, it moved through people's hearts, cutting them in half," noted Aleksandr Khodakovsky, a veteran of the pro-Russian movement in Ukraine's Donbas region who is now deputy commander of the Russian National Guard in Donetsk. "Yesterday, everything was hanging on a very thin thread."Wagner's forces Saturday shot down six Russian helicopters and an IL-22 airborne command-center plane, killing 13 airmen, according to Russian military analysts—deaths that will not be easily forgotten, ... Disconcertingly for Putin, many locals cheered Wagner's troops as they withdrew from the city—and jeered the regular police that reappeared on Rostov's streets after hiding for a day. In Moscow, too, feelings about Prigozhin were mixed at best on Saturday. "There was a moment of total loss of control. Moscow was already awaiting him, the city froze in expectation that some groups of people would enter," Kolesnikov said. "And people were not afraid. Putin was afraid of him, but not the country's population."...Yet, the very fact that there was so little spontaneous rallying for the Russian president on Saturday, in Rostov or in Moscow, showed the pent-up hunger for change after 23 years of Putin's rule, many Russian analysts noted....Fighters loyal to Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, who has had his own feud with Prigozhin, deployed to the outskirts of Moscow and erected roadblocks—once Wagner had turned around its columns.
o   Prigozhin, so far, hasn't spoken in public about leaving Russia, saying only that he had agreed to Lukashenko's request to cease the march on Moscow in order to avoid bloodshed. Putin, too, hasn't made any public remarks since accusing Prigozhin of treason on Saturday morning. Russia's minister of defense, Sergei Shoigu, whose removal was Prigozhin's key demand, hasn't been seen since before the mutiny. Neither has the chief of general staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. Shoigu maintained silence on Sunday, even as Russian social media lit up with unconfirmed rumors of his likely replacement in coming days. "The entire world has seen that Russia is on the brink of the most acute political crisis," Sergei Markov, a former Putin adviser and a political analyst in Moscow, said on Telegram. "Yes, the putsch failed now. But putsches have fundamental reasons. And if the reasons remain, a putsch will happen again. And it could be successful."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 25, 2023, 02:33:31 PM
And finally, what may be the most important mid-term consequence of this, is what does this mean for Russia China relations, (from the Moscow Times):

o   Moscow Times June 25, 2023 Prigozhin's Insurrection Creates Headaches for Russia-China Alliance, Experts Say  https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/25/future-of-putin-pal-shoigu-on-line-after-wagner-revolt-a81630

o   Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion against Moscow will have stoked alarm in China and could throw sand in the wheels of the "no-limits" strategic partnership between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, experts said on Sunday. After a 24-hour armed insurrection in which Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries seized control of parts of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and sent a convoy of troops hundreds of kilometers north towards Moscow, analysts said Beijing would see Putin's failure to keep the mercenary boss in check as smacking of "incompetence." "China will look with great concern at recent events in Russia," said Rana Mitter, professor of the history and politics of modern China at the University of Oxford. "In particular, they are likely to have fresh doubts about how unified Russian forces are, as well as the overall capacity Putin has to control his regime."
o   Sari Arho Havren, a Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) associate fellow specializing in Chinese foreign affairs, said: "Xi likely sees the background of the Wagner mutiny as serious incompetence. The rebellion clearly dented Putin's prestige — and the main consequence is how weak Russia's power structure now appears in the eyes of others. The Chinese Communist Party has a fear of chaos and instability in its DNA." Appearing weak and wounded in front of Beijing will be a serious blow to Moscow — and to Putin personally, who has spent years building up Russia's ties with China and increasingly relies on its political backing and growing trading links.
o   China has become Russia's most important international partner since it invaded Ukraine last February. Putin and Xi call each other "friends" and have cast themselves as a powerful tandem standing up to U.S. hegemony on the global stage. On the eve of the invasion, the two countries struck a "no-limits" strategic partnership. In practice, however, China has been cautious not to provide support that could trigger Western sanctions and Putin has publicly acknowledged that Xi has "concerns" over Russia's actions in Ukraine. ...
o   While the Kremlin has publicly rebuffed the idea it is a subordinate in the relationship, the notion that Moscow needs Beijing more than the other way around has stuck. That the head of a private militia was able to seize control of one of Russia's most important command centers for the war and advance to within striking distance of Moscow is likely to further tilt the power in the relationship toward Beijing, analysts said. "This cements Russia's status as a junior partner," said Livia Paggi, the managing director and head of political risk at J.S. Held. "Russia has already become completely dependent on China, for instance on oil and gas sales. It will be even more so now — there's no doubt about it."...
o   On the political front, the most important aspect of the Moscow-Beijing alliance for Xi is Putin's ability to act in partnership with him to counter the United States on the international arena, said John K. Culver, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub and a former CIA officer. "In that context, China will support Putin if he remains in charge in Moscow. If Putin falls, Beijing will wait for the dust to settle and cultivate the new power structure, perhaps with a fresh chance to counsel that Russia extricate itself from Ukraine and refocus on long-term competition with the United States/Western alliance," he wrote Saturday after the mutiny had been quashed.
o   While China's Xi is yet to make any high-profile comments on the situation in Russia, Moscow's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko was in Beijing on Sunday for a meeting with Chinese officials. In a readout of the meeting, Russia's deputy foreign minister said: "The Chinese side expressed support for the efforts of the leadership of the Russian Federation to stabilize the situation in the country in connection with the events of June 24, and reaffirmed its interest in strengthening the unity and further prosperity of Russia."While China may not have issued a public show of support during the crisis, analysts said there was no doubt which side Beijing was backing. There will have been "huge relief" in China to have seen the armed uprising quashed, J.S. Held's Paggi said."China needs a Russia that it can be a proper partner with. And for China to have a partner, they have to be strong. Russia can't be in tatters — it doesn't work."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 25, 2023, 09:39:46 PM
Hey India, how ya feelin' about that BrICS plan now? -- oh, visiting the US for talks are we!?  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 25, 2023, 09:48:59 PM
Meanwhile: disinformation by Ukraine, or legitimate activation threat?!

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672996186020610052

From Kyiv Post's Twitter feed. I'm honestly not sure what's being said -- while the implication is that the plan to detonate one or more towers to create meltdown effects, has been set on go, the wording only says the plan to do so has been approved. Which, yeah, that would come first, then the explosives would be set, which I'd be shocked WASN'T done long ago.

On the other hand, they were right about the dam.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 25, 2023, 10:00:37 PM
Speaking of driving into fallout, sort of: dash-cam vs airstrike on the Wagner column south of Voronezh:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14iid6p/russian_missileshell_aiming_at_the_wagner_convoy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Falling debris and highway speeds do not mix well.  :buck2: Prayers for the driver and any passengers...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 25, 2023, 10:15:54 PM
Say, how's that broad-front offensive going? Anyone across the river yet?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14itwzf/something_is_happening_at_the_left_bank_of_dnipro/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Seems so?!

A Russian BTR-82 to the rescue...!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14itqv6/footage_of_a_btr82a_firing_at_the_positions_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Post downthread from "Rybar's Telegram":

QuoteFrom Rybar's Telegram:

"Antonovsky bridge, our bank of the Dnieper. Kherson region

The enemy has been holding a small foothold on our shore for three days. The units of the Russian Armed Forces withdrew from the area, as the constant action of enemy artillery and SOF of the enemy created a threat of encirclement of our forces. They retreated with battles, neighboring units came to the rescue. As a result of the fighting, the Russian Armed Forces suffered losses.

At 18:00, the enemy, with forces of up to 50 people , operates on our territory, in the dark, builds up a group and supplies it with ammunition and technical equipment. Trying to expand the zone of control. A short distance across the water (up to 1 km) does not allow prompt artillery strikes against enemy high-speed boats.

The enemy has mobile electronic warfare installations on our shore, our FPV drone operators could not complete the task of delivering strikes: communication was lost.

An air request to strike at the base of the bridge on our and enemy banks, which the enemy uses as cover from artillery and mortars, was unanswered due to the difficulty of passing information.

Actions on the ground by motorized rifle subunits of the Russian Armed Forces will most certainly cause dense enemy artillery fire from its shore . The enemy forces themselves will be in shelters under the bridge.

The troops are asking for FAB strikes on the foundations of the Antonovsky bridge from both sides.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 25, 2023, 11:25:54 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1673043506216984580
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 26, 2023, 10:26:37 AM
So been outta town for a couple of days, anything interesting happening?   :grin:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 26, 2023, 10:37:59 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on June 26, 2023, 10:26:37 AMSo been outta town for a couple of days, anything interesting happening?   :grin:

Putin had history's worst catering experience.  Had to leave Concord Catering one star on Yelp.

Yevgeny Prigozhin to reopen his hot dog stand in Minsk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 26, 2023, 11:47:14 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on June 26, 2023, 10:26:37 AMSo been outta town for a couple of days, anything interesting happening?  :grin:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 26, 2023, 01:05:10 PM
Some Wagner mercs and their families are expressing anger with Prigo for turning back...

Calling him a "bald waste of space" according to BBC.

Mercenaries...jeesh... :knuppel2:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-bald-waste-of-space-fighters-rage-at-prigozhin/ar-AA1d3TZZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=28c79d60efe1402eb1b2b2b2b08fd501&ei=19#image=1 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-bald-waste-of-space-fighters-rage-at-prigozhin/ar-AA1d3TZZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=28c79d60efe1402eb1b2b2b2b08fd501&ei=19#image=1)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 26, 2023, 01:19:24 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on June 26, 2023, 01:05:10 PMSome Wagner mercs and their families are expressing anger with Prigo for turning back...

Calling him a "bald waste of space" according to BBC.

Mercenaries...jeesh... :knuppel2:


Well, I can't blame them honestly.  He used them to get what he wanted, regardless of if he thinks he "won" or not.

He promised he was doing this for them to keep them united and under his command, and now they're going to be put in the regular Russian army and likely broken up to lower the chance of future mutiny.

They'll be paid significantly less and even not fed or equipped as well as Wagner did. If the Russian MOD isn't removed they'll be under the command of the very men they were incited to overthrow.

Note that the guys that he was using for this Putsch were not the convicts, but many of them were experienced soldiers that had been fighting for Wagner since Africa and Syria.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 26, 2023, 02:17:38 PM
So nothing new, just the usual then. If Prigo goes to Belarus, I wonder if anyone bothered to ask Belarus if it was OK with them? And if the whole Wagner bunch follows him... and Putin has just sent his nukes there..... :HideEyes:  I wouldn't trust that guy with sparklers even in close proximity. I'm wondering if this isn't some KGB Op to have Wagner take-over Belarus and then invade Ukraine from a new direction.  :nono2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 26, 2023, 02:29:19 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on June 26, 2023, 02:17:38 PMSo nothing new, just the usual then. If Prigo goes to Belarus, I wonder if anyone bothered to ask Belarus if it was OK with them? And if the whole Wagner bunch follows him... and Putin has just sent his nukes there..... :HideEyes:  I wouldn't trust that guy with sparklers even in close proximity. I'm wondering if this isn't some KGB Op to have Wagner take-over Belarus and then invade Ukraine from a new direction.  :nono2:

Lukashenko "negotiated" the deal so one can assume Belarus is ok with it since he kind of is Belarus. 

Wagner is being disbanded and folded into the Russian army as noted above.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 26, 2023, 02:45:39 PM
Some updates from today, collected by The Enforcer channel:


Shoigu is under house arrest for an accounting investigation, although Russia posts stock-footage suggesting he's still out doing his job as usual.

Putin has ordered the arrest of Prigo after all, although it's unclear who reneged on the deal: did Prigo leave/escape-from Minsk (and the hotel he was supposedly staying at)? Is this why he went dark since yesterday?

Notwithstanding, a new Wagner base capable of holding 8000 troops is (still?) under construction in Eastern Belorus, about 100 miles from Ukraine. This might be lag, of course, but any continuation suggests Wagner troops won't be dispersed into the main army after all. (Or maybe only the convicts will, not the professionals?) Russia explains this as creating a reserve force, still under direct military C&C (not really a private military corp) in case of national emergency.

I would provide the links, but they're given over at the Enforcer channel's twit, just scroll down they won't be far: https://twitter.com/ItsTheEnforcer
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 26, 2023, 03:37:14 PM
I saw Enforcer's video and while none of that is out of the realm of possibility or would even slightly surprise me, I haven't heard anything confirming it outside his channel.  Enforcer's usually pretty good on his info so Putin's speech will be telling. 

It is however confirmed by the UK MOD via the BBC that the FSB took Wagner troops families hostage shortly after Rostov fell, so that may also account for at least some of the events.

EDIT: Yep, Enforcer's on it.  BBC now reporting that the Kremlin has backtracked on charges being dropped.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 26, 2023, 04:17:58 PM
Putin giving a speech later?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 26, 2023, 04:30:38 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1673323680397418496
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 26, 2023, 04:33:47 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 26, 2023, 04:17:58 PMPutin giving a speech later?

It was announced he would but it's well after midnight in Moscow so it's unlikely today. 

Supposedly he had several "significant" announcements to make.  Can't bode well for anyone.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 26, 2023, 04:36:02 PM
 :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 26, 2023, 04:42:23 PM
he gave some kind of speech earlier today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 26, 2023, 04:49:45 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 26, 2023, 04:42:23 PMhe gave some kind of speech earlier today.

Yeah, his speech addressing the uprising is out.  Prerecorded it seems.  Doesn't seem to be that significant, more a preamble.

He's still calling this treason and a mutiny just not to be blamed on the rank and file Wagner trooper.  Not good for Prighozhin. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 26, 2023, 05:03:57 PM
this one is on russian corruption:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1673426878583959554.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on June 27, 2023, 05:51:25 AM
Leftenant General M. Hartling with sound observations on the shenanigans we all just witnessed.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1673342109028347907
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 27, 2023, 08:08:06 AM
Note from Tripoli: Below is a cut and paste from "War on the Rocks" newsletter, addressing "What the Heck Just Happened?"TM in Russia.  This is a is a members-only newsletter, but this excerpt is from the free edition:
 
–––––––


This weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, led a mutiny against the Russian military. From Friday night into Saturday, Wagner forces managed to capture the city of Rostov and marched toward Moscow until, on Saturday night, they agreed to stand down after striking a deal with the Russian government. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Prigozhin will be banished to Belarus and charges against him will be dropped; Wagner fighters who participated in the attempted mutiny will not be prosecuted, and those who did not participate will be offered contracts with the Defense Ministry. The situation is still developing, however, and much remains unclear about the fate of the Wagner Group. We asked four experts to tell us more.

Read more below.
 


Mike Kofman
Director, Russia Studies Program
Center for Naval Analyses
Prigozhin's mutiny was ultimately a desperate act of someone who was cornered, on the losing end of a Byzantine power struggle. Prigozhin likely judged that yet another dramatic act would lead Putin to rule in his favor, perhaps encouraged by backers in Moscow who had long provided him cover. Instead, he challenged the system itself, and while he could not provide a political alternative, his actions exposed the weakness of the regime.

It's important to emphasize that we still don't know much about how this ends, what the agreement was, and whether it will stick. It remains to be seen what will happen to Prigozhin and Wagner. Putin's latest statement suggests Wagner soldiers' options are demobilization, absorption into the Russian military, or exile in Belarus. For now, the damage to Putin's regime is arguably the clearer part of this saga.
 


Rob Lee
Senior Fellow
Foreign Policy Research Institute
I think the catalyst for the mutiny was the recent Russian Ministry of Defense announcement that all private military companies and volunteer units would have to sign contracts with them. This was likely an attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, to maintain the status quo and Wagner's autonomy. But what started as a factional dispute between two powerful Russian figures became a public challenge to Putin. It is too soon to say what the long-term ramifications of this mutiny will be, but the success or failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive could be a critical factor.
 


Dmitry Gorenburg
Senior Research Scientist, Center for Naval Analyses;
Associate, Davis Center for Russian and East European Studies, Harvard University
The mutiny staged by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner private military company over the weekend was a major shock to the Russian political system. Prigozhin most likely started the action in order to prevent Wagner from being subsumed by the Ministry of Defense. The shock, however, comes from the lack of warning by Russian security services and the ease with which, in less than 24 hours, Wagner occupied Rostov and marched to within 200 kilometers of Moscow. Although the immediate threat was averted by a negotiated deal, the damage to the perception of Putin's domestic power and invulnerability will weaken the Russian political system in ways that will be difficult for Putin to overcome.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on June 27, 2023, 09:06:07 AM
Wagner will reconstitute in Belarus.  Lukashenko will need such men considering the internal and external political threats he faces.  With an obligation to him and little if any ties to the population, Lukashenko will count on their loyalty.  I doubt many Wagner mercenaries will take up with the Russian military, and since the FSB took hostages of Wagner families returning home isn't much of an option. (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-threatened-families-of-wagner-uprising-leaders-telegraph-2023-6?op=1  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/?utm_content=world%20news&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1687725991-2)

I won't even hazard a guess on Prigozhin's future fate. 

The Russian's do now have their very own "Stab in the Back" myth, that the Kremlin and the population will take to heart no matter what the outcome of their "SMO"  Putin's recent speech blames the West for the insurrection.  From the BBC:
QuoteHe accused the West of fomenting the "mutiny" that took place at the weekend and praised Russia for its "unity"

Kadyrov seems to be very quiet, has anyone heard anything about him in the last 24 hours?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 27, 2023, 10:10:59 AM
I read somewhere that the missing 6.2 billion dollars the US reported on a few weeks ago were given to Wagner to encourage them to rebel.  Looks like he took the money and ran. 

Of course, I don't know how credible the source is that I read this on but it is interesting.  Like something out of a hollywood movie. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 27, 2023, 10:30:46 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on June 27, 2023, 10:10:59 AMI read somewhere that the missing 6.2 billion dollars the US reported on a few weeks ago were given to Wagner to encourage them to rebel.  Looks like he took the money and ran. 

Of course, I don't know how credible the source is that I read this on but it is interesting.  Like something out of a hollywood movie. 

Unlikely.  There was no "missing" $6.2 Billion.  The money was an accounting error and we underspent on the aid package where that money was allocated.   The rest of that money goes into future aid packages as it was already approved by congress and it has to be accounted for just like the initial approved package.  If there's more or less on the next pass then money gets reallocated again. 

Prighozhin had plenty of reasons to rebel beyond adding more billions to his coffers.  He was increasingly isolated, his men were on a clock of July 1 to sign with the MOD or they'd be taken away from him, Putin had stopped talking to him and he was about to be stripped of his troops by Shoigu, a man that actively wanted him dead.  When the FSB started investigating him it was put up or shut up time for him.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 27, 2023, 10:41:49 AM
What really is going on in Russia is like that doll-thing their kids play with, you know the one where you open-up the doll and there's another one inside, and then another one inside that, and another, and another, and another. We won't really know what's going on until we get to the last doll. The thing for me is if Putin's forgiving everybody then he is either scared totally shitless, or believes this thing went his way completely. If it's the latter, then there's always the possibility that it was his baby all along.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 27, 2023, 11:27:49 AM
No no no no, it's a Moebius doll! -- the smallest one inside is actually the largest one outside!

Because their plots tend to loop around in circular reasoning.  :Nerd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on June 27, 2023, 01:00:43 PM
Exactly. 

That's why I don't trust anyone, us or them, to tell the truth.  Wicked evil doers abound my friends and they all think they're getting away with murder. 

Has anyone of you heard of the term "maskarovska"?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 27, 2023, 01:23:36 PM
Oh, I expect we've all read Tom Clancy at least once.  :grin:

Come to think of it, someone was joking earlier that if Clancy had written this plot, it would have been rejected as too farfetched!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 27, 2023, 01:35:36 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on June 27, 2023, 01:23:36 PMOh, I expect we've all read Tom Clancy at least once.  :grin:

Come to think of it, someone was joking earlier that if Clancy had written this plot, it would have been rejected as too farfetched!

I would have no doubt that he would have.

And all of this is why it's going to be weeks/months before we have a good understanding of what really happened. 

I did initially have some thoughts that Putin might have orchistrated part of this as a way to remove Shoigu, who has gradually become the Shadow President of Russia, but I don't believe that anymore.

What can't be underestimated is the damage this has done to Putin's reputation, not just in Russia but more importantly with his strategic partners. 

Putin's dream of Russia leading an eastern power coalition with China and India died last weekend. Many analysts are reporting that internally Xi is now fully convinced Russia will never be a reliable strategic partner and any illusion that they would ever be treated equally with the Sino-Indian power bloc are dead. 

These kinds of "revolutions" are things China crushes mercilessly before they even have a chance to occur.  This is a huge slip for Putin, regardless of the real reasons behind it. 

A close friend of mine whos opinion I trust feels that over the next few months you'll see a purge coming on both sides of this conflict.  It won't look like one at first, some house arrests, a heart attack, a resignation or two due to poor health followed by long terminal illnesses, but it may be coming nonetheless.  Don't expect this to end with another bang...

Or do!  It's Russian Roulette on the global scale!  Make your bets now people.  I for one am in on Putin secretly being a Tiger Person from the planet Zorfan and this is all a plan to cultivate Leprechauns for their gold reserves.  :leprachaun:  :leprachaun:  :leprachaun:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 27, 2023, 03:54:20 PM
Back this morning, a special diplomatic jet was crossing the North Atlantic on the way to the US; probably here by now.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673666391939981314

I'm not sure about the time zoning of the clock in this snapshot, but whoever has the tracking app can look up the flight number RSD898.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 27, 2023, 03:57:09 PM
I don't have a good link right now, but apparently the US told Russia diplomatically (or direct from the adminstration) that if ANYTHING nuclear-related happens as a result of Russian war efforts in or around the war zone (for example, melting down those reactors), the Security Council will regard that as expanding the war to NATO and will take action against Russia.

Relatedly, more than 48 hours after the Ukrainian Defense Ministry alert, nothing goofy at the plant yet...? (Things move so fast, the whole place could be a glowing crater right this moment and I wouldn't necessarily have heard yet.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 27, 2023, 04:00:02 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on June 27, 2023, 01:35:36 PMPutin's dream of Russia leading an eastern power coalition with China and India died last weekend. Many analysts are reporting that internally Xi is now fully convinced Russia will never be a reliable strategic partner and any illusion that they would ever be treated equally with the Sino-Indian power bloc are dead.

I expect BRICS was dead (despite occasional hopeful pretenses otherwise) the moment Putler went over the borders last February, dooming his nation to economic ruin in many of various ways -- but yep, it's deader than dead now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 27, 2023, 08:13:56 PM
ffs, having to do this down every friking tree line...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1673813432791867393
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 27, 2023, 10:22:13 PM
Kind of reminds me of the footage of Marines clearing bunkers on Iwo Jima. Only greener.  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 28, 2023, 10:42:45 AM
Bocage-y!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 28, 2023, 10:50:43 AM
ok hive mind.
find me info on how effective Trophy is vs drones.   :magnify:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 28, 2023, 10:51:15 AM
oh and fwiw, Ukraines M1s were unloaded today in Poland.   :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 28, 2023, 10:52:21 AM
One of the 'click-baity' links on my homepage says Prigo is holed-up in a "windowless" hotel room in Minsk.

My first thought was..nah!! What hotel would have a windowless room?

Then I remembered we are talking about the former Soviet Union...makes total sense.

Now all Prigo has to do is not change his underwear.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/prigozhin-windowless-room-assassination-russia-uprising-113242816.html (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/prigozhin-windowless-room-assassination-russia-uprising-113242816.html)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 28, 2023, 11:20:52 AM
Interestingly, according to the WSJ Prighzhin had an original plan to capture and or eliminate Shoigu and  Gerasimov when they visited the front, but FSB leakers in Wagner foiled the plot.

That would've been a much more tenable plan, but once blown he went for all the marbles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 28, 2023, 12:35:07 PM
^Yeah I just read that same article.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 28, 2023, 01:34:36 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1674118049975214081
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 28, 2023, 02:19:49 PM
I feel bad for Prigo. First he lost-out on getting to be the new host on Wheel of Fortune and now all this. Guess he'll have to settle for...Jeopardy instead.  :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on June 28, 2023, 04:57:08 PM
If you all viewed Russia as being run by mob-bosses, with Putin as the king of Dons, this would all make perfect sense.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 28, 2023, 05:03:29 PM
smart observers have been.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 28, 2023, 06:45:28 PM
Enforcer Matt's collection of news snippets today:


1.) Prigo's business jet was in Belarus a little more than 14 hours before flying to Moscow and back. Rumor has it that most of his 'council of commanders' was also there, and they were 'negotiating' something for 2+ hours.

2.) Lukashenko would like "battle hardened" Wagnerites to train his forces, but on the other hand Wagner can forget about a brand new facility being built or even an existing one being converted for their new base. (Matt didn't really provide a link source for that last one, but the former comes from The War Zone: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/belarus-wants-prigozhins-wagnerites-to-train-its-army)

3.) NextaTV, no relation to actual ATVs, (https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1673944333374963713?cxt=HHwWgoC-yZLghbsuAAAA) is reporting that "Interior Ministry General Alexander Travnikov was involved in a serious ATV accident. He is in a hospital in critical condition." We will doubtless hear later that he was doing kinky sex on the ATV while it bounced through the woods, and was kicked off. Five times. Before he succumbed.  :lipsrsealed:

4.) https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html

Moscow Times reports that General Sergei Surovikin has been arrested for not only knowing about Prigo's coming rebellion but aiding and abetting. Or worse. (For those who read Russian, not me! https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/06/28/istochniki-v-minoboroni-soobschayut-ob-areste-generala-surovikina-a47384 )

Russian & Ukrainian sources in Telegram claim Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces Surovikin and his Deputy Colonel-General Yudin arrested for treason and taken to the Lefortovo pre-trial detention center. Yudin (or someone typing on his account anyway) has already denied this, reporting that he's on vacation at home.


4.) Swiss Leopard 1s (currently under German management) won't be going to Ukraine after all. Understandable from a 'neutrality' diplomatic stance, I suppose.

5.) Reuters is reporting that China has decided Russia will be fine without several days worth of Chinese imports for a while! https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-china-idAFKBN2YD0Z8 More seriously, this signals China's concern that Russia won't be able to pay back what it owes, i.e. the Russian government is too likely to collapse.

6.) When Putin was kind-of forced to acknowledge that Wagner was always acting under Russian governmental orders -- as part of his justification for his ultimatum about folding them into the main army or kicking them out of Russia altogether, as well as positioning Prigo as a liar and hypocrite to undermine his popularity -- this opened up Russia for liability on all the war crimes Wagner has perpetrated over the years which Putin has disavowed responsibility for.

The ISW has more about this wrinkle today, among other things: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-27-2023

QuoteRussian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reputation among Wagner personnel and within Russian society. Putin implied on June 27 that "the owner of Concord company" (the Concord company is the parent company of Prigozhin's catering company) lied about the Wagner Group private military company's (PMC) independence from the Kremlin and the lack of state compensation for Wagner personnel.[1]Putin publicly claimed for the first time since Wagner's founding that the Kremlin "fully funds" and "fully supplies" the Wagner PMC and claimed that the Kremlin made various payments to Wagner personnel and their families from Russia's federal budget. Putin added that "the owner of the Concord Company" received 80 billion rubles (about $936 million) between May 2022 and May 2023 for delivering and catering food to the Russian military, and that the Kremlin will investigate whether the company stole anything during its work for the Kremlin. Putin was clearly referring to Prigozhin, who is the owner of the Concord Company Group and previously worked as Putin's personal caterer, but Putin continues to refuse to say Prigozhin's name.[2] Putin's insinuation that the Kremlin will investigate the Concord Company may be preparation to justify the Kremlin's confiscation of Prigozhin's assets via corruption charges.

Putin is rhetorically separating Prigozhin from the Wagner PMC and is deliberately depriving Prigozhin of the title of Wagner financier to undermine his role in the Wagner PMC. The Kremlin launched an ongoing domestic information campaign in Russia to forgive Wagner fighters and commanders in an effort to lure Wagner personnel to sign contacts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).[3] The deliberate effort to separate Prigozhin from the Wagner Group is likely intended to set informational conditions so that the Kremlin can accuse Prigozhin of corruption or conspiring with Ukraine or the West and alienate Prigozhin from Wagner personnel whom the Kremlin seeks to retain to fight in Ukraine as part of the regular Russian military.[4] Prigozhin had built his personal brand on criticizing the Russian military command and bureaucrats for corruption and ties to Western countries, and Putin is likely attempting to shatter Prigozhin's populist appeal by accusing him of the same sins.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 28, 2023, 09:25:53 PM
Some commentary on Lushenko's speech yesterday, and Putin's followup speech, related to Lush's negotiation with Prigo and Putin's admission of funding war crimes.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 28, 2023, 09:35:44 PM

Some connections late in this video to the arrested generals and Prigo's coup attempt.

(The thread title is click-baity, however: Prigozh isn't fleeing to the US. Yet. Or maybe ever. He might have to go into hiding somewhere, if Putin's case against him ramps up.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 28, 2023, 10:03:07 PM

Based on a New York Times report, although I'm not sure there's anything we haven't heard yet.

Meanwhile, Warographics presents a nicely produced 26 minute doc on the coup up to a day ago.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 29, 2023, 07:07:10 AM
I forgot to mention yesterday, partly because I couldn't re-find the source-claim where I had seen it, that Ukraine has reached, and reclaimed, the first town on the road past their beachhead in Crimea.

That should be REALLY REALLY big news, if true. (As in, Putin threatened Godawful-er things if that ever happened.) So the fact I haven't found it again suggests maybe not...?


Meanwhile, "Former US Army intelligence analyst Kervin Aucoin told Daily Express US Prigozhin could still play a crucial role in Putin's plans, and effectively could be "positioning" himself to take over from Lukashenko." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-and-prigozhin-positioned-to-oust-lukashenko-and-seize-control-of-belarus/ar-AA1dcPdV?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c66b4e3b63f144b1a6f2e8f5d668a11b&ei=53

That would at least fit the supervillainous moebius-doll plotting.  :tongue: Or what I liked to call Putin's "Dumbledore Gambit" waaaaay back eons ago at the start of the war: have a crazy number of plots going at once in order to take advantage of anything  that pops up as a winner and confuse your enemies meanwhile.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 29, 2023, 08:17:25 AM
still one of my favorites!   :Party:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500099189061173249
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 29, 2023, 08:25:53 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on June 29, 2023, 07:07:10 AM...
Meanwhile, "Former US Army intelligence analyst Kervin Aucoin told Daily Express US Prigozhin could still play a crucial role in Putin's plans, and effectively could be "positioning" himself to take over from Lukashenko." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-and-prigozhin-positioned-to-oust-lukashenko-and-seize-control-of-belarus/ar-AA1dcPdV?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c66b4e3b63f144b1a6f2e8f5d668a11b&ei=53
...


I saw this theory on a Ukranian site a few days ago. Maybe this is the answer to the question of "what did Prigo get for turning around? Maybe Putin gave him Belarus.

But for myself I am not sure. Gangster rules say there is only one ending; Prigo has to "sleep with the fishes." 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on June 29, 2023, 08:31:15 AM
I thought it was "wearing concrete galoshes"?  But I've been out of the Mob for a while now...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on June 29, 2023, 09:10:05 AM
Good article by General Ryan: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-29/prigozhin-wagner-mutiny-ukraine-operations-russian-military/102536320  For those who are short of time, here is a Twitter thread that he wrote that summarizes much of the article:
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1674162791199174657

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 29, 2023, 10:03:50 AM
Damn, that Hind went down like a roach hit by Raid.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 29, 2023, 10:16:52 AM
Now opening for suggestions as to the Russian mafia equivalent of "sleep with the fishes"...!  :pirate:

Meanwhile, part of my brain is wondering what lessons and (hopefully) advancements our team is learning from the copter vs missile engagements of this war. Even if it boils down to "this is why we teach you don't do this", it would be useful.

But is the modern copter-space lethality only a factor of poor training/skills perhaps combined with equipment supply problems; or has this conflict revealed a need to revamp rotary ops (and co-ops, so to speak)?

Sort of similar to the modern tank debate, the past few years: I think it has settled down to mostly bad tactics, including at the op level (both also being a factor of training, and CCC problems), but maybe also some level of reformulation in proper combined arms is needed?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 29, 2023, 02:22:39 PM
scraped from the bottom of the barrel and arriving at the southern front, the russian army in retrograde.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fzzr-4TWYAACLJt?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on June 29, 2023, 04:28:34 PM
Well, the fourth crewmember probably won't explode and throw the turret.  :tongue:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 29, 2023, 04:39:30 PM
so far these tanks have been used as indirect artillery  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on June 29, 2023, 04:55:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 29, 2023, 02:22:39 PMscraped from the bottom of the barrel and arriving at the southern front, the russian army in retrograde.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fzzr-4TWYAACLJt?format=jpg&name=large)

shit...is that a T-62?

So, in a conventional war, NATO would absolutely wax Russia
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 29, 2023, 05:52:09 PM
Quote from: acctingman on June 29, 2023, 04:55:38 PMshit...is that a T-62?

So, in a conventional war, NATO would absolutely wax Russia

Yep.

They pulled T-55's out of storage as well. 

As Star said, they're using them as either static fortifications or indirect artillery. 

Currently massed, endless artillery fire has been about the only tactic the Russians have used that has reliably worked for them. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on June 29, 2023, 06:17:42 PM
From the location of the bore evacuator isn't it a T-54?  T-62s have it about halfway down the barrel.
When they bring out the T-34s, those'll be easy to ID.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 29, 2023, 06:22:33 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on June 29, 2023, 06:17:42 PMFrom the location of the bore evacuator isn't it a T-54?  T-62s have it about halfway down the barrel.
When they bring out the T-34s, those'll be easy to ID.

I thought the same but not sure, the profile is a lot more '62. 

Should be noted that they've been upgrading the old armor over the decades.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on June 29, 2023, 06:35:47 PM
The large space between first and second road wheel is always the T-54/55 giveaway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 29, 2023, 06:44:46 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on June 29, 2023, 06:35:47 PMThe large space between first and second road wheel is always the T-54/55 giveaway.

Yep, great point.  T-55's then.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 29, 2023, 08:11:26 PM
What is the next oldest tank in the Soviet arsenal beyond the T-54/55?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 29, 2023, 08:37:32 PM
Quote from: Gusington on June 29, 2023, 08:11:26 PMWhat is the next oldest tank in the Soviet arsenal beyond the T-54/55?

Technically the T-62 is the oldest operational Russian tank, and that still is likely on the books by the Russians as the oldest.

Russian policy though was to stockpile everything and put their tanks into operational reserve.  This is where the Western media kept coming up with the "20k Russian Tank" numbers back before the beginning of hostilities with Ukraine.  That number encompasses the obscene number of T-55's produced.

So, the long answer is that the oldest operational is now, the T-54/55.  They were mothballed until now, but now that the Russians have had such extreme losses on modern platforms they are having to activate their boneyards for combat. 

I read an interesting article recently that said the T-90 and T-80U have ceased to be the Russian Army primary front line tank due to losses, and now even new production is going back to the T-72 just because of simplicity and numbers.   

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 29, 2023, 08:44:37 PM
yes, its a t-54/55 and speaking of losses:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fz0oh7eWwAILgoZ?format=jpg&name=medium)

Ukrainian forces breached dense mine fields and formidable defenses in a well-planned operation near Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, that advanced so rapidly it cut off an entire Russian airborne company, which surrendered after realizing too late it was surrounded, Euromaidan Press says in its latest frontline report

The entrenched Russian forces "required a lot of preparation and technical excellence to overcome," but Ukrainian troops cleared multiple paths through the mine fields with a special line charge, then quickly closed the distance while suppressing enemy fire and handily breached the first defensive line

Pushing immediately onward, Ukraine's 80th Air Assault Brigade troopers cleared a labyrinthe of trenches with the help of drones (and liberal use of grenades -- see video)
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1674070461221617665

"Ukrainian drone operators continuously notified the troops on the ground about the number of Russian soldiers in front of them, the movement of these soldiers, how many turns they are away from them, and especially when Russians were reloading"

The rapid breakthrough left Russian paratroopers in a pocket, realizing too late they'd been encircled and quickly agreeing to a Ukrainian offer to surrender

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/29/frontline-report-ukraine-captures-stranded-airborne-company-near-bakhmut-uses-increasibly-flexible-tactics/

Map source: Euromaidan Press report
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 29, 2023, 09:29:02 PM
this is where russia is at today........   :ROFL:

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-replace-shoigu-steven-seagal-iranian-reports-defense-minister-1809628?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1687984525
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 29, 2023, 09:52:40 PM
Probably getting ready to be, "Under Siege".  :2funny:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 30, 2023, 07:24:09 AM
https://t.me/DIUkraine/2497

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-forces-begin-to-flee-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-ukrainian-defence-intelligence/ar-AA1df7or?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=9f2f6cc399814dc3bb76a491c5866fd6&ei=38

(The article is based on the "Telegram" DIU entry first linked, which is in the original Russian. Or Ukrainian.)

The main news is that Russian patrols in the area of the nuke plant are "gradually" decreasing, while Russian troops and some plant personnel are withdrawing into Crimea. Ukrainian contract workers have been advised to leave the area by July 5th. Meanwhile, Ukraine has decided to conduct large-scale special civil defence training in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 30, 2023, 08:23:30 AM
Wow...everything old really is new again in so many ways.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 30, 2023, 08:58:10 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-wagner-coup-was-staged-by-putin-and-the-west-fell-for-it-opinion/ar-AA1dehXU?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=e04cf12e9c124d50ac58e8bf4aaf8621&ei=39

Rebekah Koffler's op-ed in Newsweek yesterday was rather overwrought, and doesn't seem to be taking enough factors into account (would Putin really want to flush his economic alliance with China straight down the toilet??), but does present something like a coherent argument for the coup being Putin's hoax operation, as far as it goes. (She's the president of a strategy think tank, and a former DIA analyst, plus author of a book on Putin's plans to destroy America.)

One detail I hadn't picked up on yet, but had wondered about, was who Prigo was chatting with on that bench in Rostov: that was Russia's deputy minister of defense, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and deputy head of the GRU, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev.

Her evidence in favor of a coup is somewhat wrong, of course: "Think about it: An army invades Russia, race right up to Moscow, and no one gets hurt? With just a few thousand men, it achieved what Hitler with almost a million men wasn't able to? And Putin holds his military back?"

People did get hurt, though not a lot of them.

Hitler had 16 armies in his way (each with enough armor, technically, to equal a Nazi Panzer Group, and a few with enough armor to equal all of Hitler's Barbarossa armor), and another 7 or 8 armies in the 2nd Strategic Echelon on the way (not counting some number of free-floating corps, divisions, brigades, etc.), and did get closer to Moscow than Prigo did.

Putin didn't hold his military back: he got the Chechens to race up the road after Prigo, plus some other mainline Russian units (such as they are), all from in front of Ukraine, weakening the defensive line (such as it was.) The rest of Putin's national guard is stretched thin around the nation. Putin (correctly) isn't expecting Urkraine to invade Russia to any real degree, so hasn't set up defenses to amount to anything. (Much of the point to the recent Free Russian invasions was to force Putin to shuffle forces around to prevent rebel Russians retaking land, but that isn't anywhere near the same as Ukraine trying to invade for Moscow.)

By all accounts, Prigo thought (or looked like) he expected Russian military forces in front of him to flip to his side, which would help in taking Moscow, so more than the 8Kish troops he had on the road going north. This was enough of a problem (apparently) that some Russian troops started fighting each other near Moscow!

So she has some problems. That said, what would be Putin's motivation for this being a false-flag op?

1.) "The Russian strongman is up for re-election on March 17, 2024. With no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war, Putin has to convince the Russians of the need to bear even more sacrifices in order to maintain popular support for the war in Ukraine."

This assumes Russia has real elections, which isn't true. However, Putin does need to convince his people of the need to bear even more sacrifices etc.

Koffler's argument hangs on Putin wanting to trick the West into seeming weaker than he is, but Koffler (somewhat indirectly) acknowledges the failing war in Ukraine makes Putin look dangerously weak. So is the whole war supposed to be a maskirovka now to trick the West into thinking Putin is weak?!


2.) "As Putin knows, if you want to scare a Russian, tell them they are going to go through the horror and disorder of the Bolshevik revolution again. These claims became the pretext for Putin to gain more power, not less. He declared a "counter-terrorism operation," effectively marshal law, requiring extreme security measures, including constant monitoring of citizens communications. And he reversed the rule that prohibited people with a criminal record from joining the military, which will enable additional military mobilization."

This part I agree with, but Putin has to do this because he has appeared increasingly too weak thanks to the failing war (among other things). So his solution is to appear even weaker, to trick the West? No, but I'd buy the idea of using Prigo (one way or another) to seize more power over his people and try to scare them into compliance with more of his tyranny. On the other hand, using a very popular more-or-less self-made general to do that, runs somewhat against the grain of scaring people into trusting Putin to save them! It also doesn't fit Putin's efforts since then to undermine Prigo's popularity.


3.) "Of course, what Russians view as strength -- Putin was able to squash a major armed mutiny -- Western media and Biden's 'experts" interpreted as weakness,' which per Koffler's argument was a key goal of the pseudo-coup.

But Putin didn't squash the coup. He got Lukashenko to talk Prigo out of the coup. Putin's population might not realize this, but the West sure does! -- so much so that Luka's involvement is suspicious in itself (though also embarrassing Putin by going too far.) Even Putin's internal propaganda doesn't really show him and his forces strongly squashing the coup, however much his trained seals in the media may clap about it.


4.) "And this, too, is as Putin wants it. The perception in the West that he is weak and his military is incompetent suggests that the West need not provide so much assistance to Ukraine, a key goal of Putin's."

He's desperate to reduce that aid, sure, but this doesn't look like the best way to go about it. On the contrary, his (apparent?!?1) weakness shows our efforts are working.


5.) A pseudo-coup also "remind{s} the world that the longer the Ukraine war continues, the greater the chance for unpredictable consequences, like, say, nuclear Armageddon."

Hardly needs a fake coup for that.


6.) "There's an entire doctrine in the Russian military science called Reflexive Control, which is designed to trick the enemy by serving him information he is likely to believe because of his pre-existing bias."

In this case, the pre-existing "bias" of Putin being freakishly weaker than he seemed for years, and getting weaker all the time, "pre-exists" due to his ongoing war failures at many levels, including his inability to get reliable allies on his side. A psuedo-coup attempt hardly adds to this, especially if its falsity is supposed to be emphatically obvious. ("the obvious truth")


7.) "Meanwhile, the Wagner Group has used its trip to Moscow to land itself in Belarus, which just received a gift of tactical nuclear weapons from Putin. This points to yet another potential goal of the false flag operation: opening a second front to Ukraine's north while directly threatening NATO's eastern flank with the weapons of Armageddon. This time, Putin is doing it with Russia's most effective fighting force."

The problem there, among other things, is that Lukashenko has retracted a lot of his offer to Prigo: they can set up tents on abandoned land, that's all. Also, the Wagner Group isn't there yet and is being piecemealed there, at best. Also, Wagner doesn't have to be there, much less a false coup staged to get them there, for Putin to threaten NATO's eastern flank with tactical nukes.


What MIGHT make more sense for a false-coup plan, is to position Prigo in place to take over Belarus. However, that doesn't fit Putin's recent attempts at undermining Putin's credibility with the people. Although maybe that doesn't matter for such a purpose, and is meant to throw us off from guessing that Putin plans to upgrade Prigo in authority this way. A false-coup plan which leaves Prigo actually weaker than he was, doesn't seem like a plan he'd agree to.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 30, 2023, 09:12:46 AM
Meanwhile, sigh:

https://www.the-sun.com/news/8486138/russian-bank-vice-president-dies-mystery-plunge/

Look, Russia, if you want to throw Russian mafiosa and hardline generals out the windows of their yachts etc, and then bury them under their own houses, that's fine.

But please don't assassinate your supermodel bank executives. A LINE MUST BE DRAWN TOO FAR!

(https://www.the-sun.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2023/06/newspress-collage-22856405-1688046013188.jpg?w=620)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 30, 2023, 09:25:03 AM
^For realz?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2023, 09:35:12 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzyavP5WcAEREfH?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2023, 09:57:41 AM
possibly another tank ied

https://twitter.com/i/status/1674791882415804416
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 30, 2023, 10:26:07 AM
In anime, they'd call that the "houtou zenmetsu senryaku!" Pretend I was less lasy/busy and added colorful emphases.

(Turret annihilation strategy.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on June 30, 2023, 10:28:12 AM
Quote from: Gusington on June 30, 2023, 09:25:03 AM^For realz?

She's really dead from an 11 story fall under suspicious circumstances, yep. And really a bank vp. And really supermodelish!  :Dreamer:

The report is kind of weird in that she was having dinner with "Andrei", walked out onto her balcony, and then went out a window. Do balconies have windows? I guess in post-Soviet Russia they do?  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on June 30, 2023, 10:39:51 AM
No...don't kill the hot ones...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 30, 2023, 10:55:25 AM
Agreed! I would have given her Sanctuary and taken her shopping.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on June 30, 2023, 11:29:50 AM
The Russians are using T-62's? WOW.....they are ripe for a military takeover if they're fielding 60+ yr old tanks
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 30, 2023, 11:37:39 AM
What kind of insane gangsta regime kills their own hotties?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 30, 2023, 02:00:53 PM
How did she get her job as VP of a bank? Interest, lots of interest.  :grin:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 30, 2023, 02:13:35 PM
 :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on June 30, 2023, 03:25:51 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2023, 09:57:41 AMpossibly another tank ied

https://twitter.com/i/status/1674791882415804416

Well cr@p.  Looks like twitter links won't work anymore for un-registered users (http://www.theverge.com/2023/6/30/23779764/twitter-blocks-unregistered-users-account-tweets).  Guess I'm finally going to have to sign up. :tickedoff:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2023, 04:16:55 PM
(https://media.tenor.com/9TOWPWEZav8AAAAC/scum-wretched.gif)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2023, 04:27:51 PM
I know Ive seen similar things before but how fucking stupid are these russians

https://twitter.com/i/status/1674871663534432281
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2023, 04:39:50 PM
pretty sure this is from that fuckup at the start a few weeks ago.
still heartbreaking.  :cry:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzdKWx3XgAAf1GO?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on June 30, 2023, 04:54:53 PM
ah, heres the other stupidity

https://twitter.com/i/status/1580291630913187840
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on June 30, 2023, 05:01:33 PM
^wtf  :headscratch:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on June 30, 2023, 09:39:08 PM
That'll ring your bell good and proper.  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 01, 2023, 07:12:47 AM
:evil:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1675112776836997120

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fz8mWkGWAAEBovW?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 01, 2023, 08:20:41 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 01, 2023, 07:12:47 AM:evil:

-snip-

:Party:  :Hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 01, 2023, 08:52:26 PM
Say, Prigo, how's your catering business going? ....ooh, your contract got canceled by Russia, huh? (Link on Twitter unfortunately, not available for me anymore.)

Gosh, Ms Koffler, is the fake-coup still "the obvious truth"?  :buck2:

(On the other hand, I saw on Fox News about half an hour ago, that in the past 15 days a Belarus area reportedly set aside to house Wagner troops, has filled up with tents. So there's that.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 01, 2023, 10:09:41 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 01, 2023, 08:52:26 PM(On the other hand, I saw on Fox News about half an hour ago, that in the past 15 days a Belarus area reportedly set aside to house Wagner troops, has filled up with tents. So there's that.)

Without Prigozhin's Concord contracts and with Wagner being stripped of heavy weapons, any of the troops that follow him to Belarus won't be able to do much. 

Prighozhin is worth a bit south personally of $1bn outside of his now non-existent Russian government contracts.  That's not really much to reform a 20k man strong Merc company.  And that's assuming that he hasn't had a lot of his assets seized. 

It costs a lot to run a Merc Army, especially if you don't have a government deferring a large amount of the cost.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 01, 2023, 11:22:06 PM
Oh I bet we haven't heard the last from Prigo. He's too big a player in the Russian Futures Market to just go away. Too many people need a Rent-An-Army right now for him to stay in retirement. I believe we'll be looking at his ugly face for some time to come.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 02, 2023, 09:01:35 AM
things are afoot!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fz_yENyWIAIoaQ5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 02, 2023, 09:36:58 AM
cosmonaut training continues

https://twitter.com/i/status/1675420266870996993
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 03, 2023, 07:42:25 AM
^ If you have a ham radio set, you can probably hear his ghostly pleas for help...  :buck2:

The Orikhiv Axis infomap meanwhile is a reminder that one big reason for the lack of forward progress on the Uk push so far, is that the Orks are using their second and third defensive lines in the area as staging to send reinforcements forward instead of letting their defenses fall back onto better prepared positions (though I'm not sure how much better 'prepared' the third line is compared to either of the first two: it may really be only an operational reserve line). The Russians cannot afford to let Ukraine get to even the second, much less third line of defense, since that will snap the last major supply route to the Crimea.

I think this is good news for Ukraine, such as it is: they can catch and fight Russians outside most of the prepared positions. If the Uks can keep up the pressure, the worst that will happen is the Orks must pull reinforcements from elsewhere on the strategic line, leaving those areas vulnerable to rapid pushes and flanking collapses of the Russian center. Really makes that push toward the Azov Sea a meatgrinder for everyone, though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 03, 2023, 07:57:45 AM
the russians simply dont have the people to man all the defensive works theyve built.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 03, 2023, 09:25:13 AM
True. And couldn't supply them if they did. (And the works aren't all that great to begin with.)

I've seen reports, including videos, where shattered remnants of Russian companies are refusing to go back to the Russian front line, even if the FSB executes them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 03, 2023, 10:28:57 AM
Is it possible for Ukraine to win anything larger than small fights without control of the air? Will this war be the first since WWII that the side without Air Superiority won? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 03, 2023, 11:01:44 AM
^Vietnam?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 03, 2023, 11:41:45 AM
Quote from: Gusington on July 03, 2023, 11:01:44 AM^Vietnam?

Afghanistan more recently.  More than once.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 03, 2023, 12:02:09 PM
Yeah.  I think this war is one fought where both sides' air defenses have worked very well.

The Russians' have worked better, but it's not like they have had much success hitting anything smaller than infrastructure behind Ukrainian lines.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 03, 2023, 12:16:13 PM
Neither side has been able to get what would be defined as Air Superiority. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 03, 2023, 02:48:05 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 03, 2023, 10:28:57 AMIs it possible for Ukraine to win anything larger than small fights without control of the air? Will this war be the first since WWII that the side without Air Superiority won? 


things seem to be picking up speed in the south.  I'll remind you that Normandy was a lot of little fights until suddenly it was big pushes and gains.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 03, 2023, 03:34:53 PM
I don't see the Ukrainians having any impenetrable jungles or vast, towering mountain ranges to hide in but OK, it could happen. Maybe. Despite Normandy being a lot of little fights, the Allies were achieving massive material superiority there while fighting the little fights. These two sides seem so evenly matched right now I can't see an Operation Cobra resulting in a drive to the Black Sea here. All I see is three yards and a cloud of dust behind a wall of dead bodies. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 03, 2023, 04:20:04 PM
Part of Ukraine's military history of the last 200 years at least has been 'partisan' fighting against an outside invader.

Putin forgot this too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 03, 2023, 06:17:53 PM
 :ROFL:  so happy to see this!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1675973206828625920
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 03, 2023, 07:01:43 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0H9ShkWIAIGU-M?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 03, 2023, 09:07:56 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 03, 2023, 09:25:13 AM...
I've seen reports, including videos, where shattered remnants of Russian companies are refusing to go back to the Russian front line, even if the FSB executes them.

I'd love to think this is the crack that causes the whole Russian army to fail, but history suggests that is not necessarily the case. After the Nivelle Offensive in 1917, there was a broad mutiny in the French army. But it was not a full mutiny. The French infantrymen just refused any more frontal assaults. However, they were content to defend and participate in conservative offensive actions.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-refuse-to-carry-out-suicidal-orders/ar-AA1dnsyU?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0d19ea09d8934352a916ac80dd3e7a9b&ei=9 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-refuse-to-carry-out-suicidal-orders/ar-AA1dnsyU?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0d19ea09d8934352a916ac80dd3e7a9b&ei=9)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 04, 2023, 06:51:58 AM
Yeah.  I didn't read the article but I saw a headline recently that seemed very apt:  "Ukraine is like WW I but with high tech weaponry"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 04, 2023, 07:03:40 AM
The comparison to the D Day breakout is possible but it's impossible to tell.  With the benefit of hindsight, it's obvious that the allies were steadily building up the number and readiness of their troops while the Germans were sliding the other way for those six weeks (the Brits would argue that they were keeping themselves and the Germans on par around Caen, thus allowing the Americans to build up for a breakout in their sector).

The reality in Normandy is that the Allies used blatant air superiority to paralyze the German rail and road network, such that they could establish logistical superiority across fifty miles of the English channel, despite the absence of any functioning port.  That is an association statement, but it's what drive the Allied breakout.

While it is possible that Ukraine might accomplish the same thing, we have nothing more than suspect anecdotal evidence to support this.  We won't know who's winning until the retreats begin.  Such is the fog of war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 04, 2023, 10:31:33 AM
I agree. A clear military victory that ends the war by either side seems less and less likely, stalemate looks to be the inevitable result at present. This isn't Normandy, it's more like Verdun.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 12:17:23 PM
then your clearly not seeing the maps and videos that Im seeing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 12:29:23 PM
this is a few days old.  and while it might not look like much it is the grinding down of russian military capacity. in the upper right the area around Rivnopil has now been cleared past the town and continues south.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fz3oifGXwAAOAj_?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 04, 2023, 12:58:53 PM
Currently, the primary issue facing the UAF in their advance in the south is less a dogged Russian defense and more the extreme use of mines. 

The UAF progress has been quite fast when actually facing direct combat with Russian formations as is evidenced by the wealth of videos, but then slowed by the extremely difficult work of mine clearing.

The Russians are even using WWII era mines, and have mined so extensively they're having issues with their active defense strategy by running their local counterattacks into their own mines.

Russia is also starting to pay for its heavy expenditure of Artillery in this phase of the counteroffensive.  Liberation of towns like Rivnopil and the capture of Russian troops there show that they're facing a critical ammunition shortage, much of it wasted trying to repel attacks of only a few dozen to hundreds of troops.

These small engagements show that comparisons to either Normandy or especially Verdun would indicate an extreme ignorance of those two battles when compared to the situation in Ukraine.  One that stands out most obviously is the massive difference in overall force density of those two battles to this one. 

Currently, Russia and Ukraine are bringing to bear roughly one million men on each side, of which of course only a portion would be considered front line combat units.  That is spread along a front that is as large as the entire Eastern Front in WW2.  This bears no resemblance at all to the tight quarters and massive troop concentrations that were seen in the first two World War's Western Fronts.

This is to me why I question as to why the UAF has opened six separate axis of advance while keeping its heavy brigades and reserves.  The answer given is that they're probing for what would be an inevitably existing weak spot where the Russians lack the manpower and reserves to actually man their fortifications. 

News today is the weak spot has been found and the main thrust of the counteroffensive will begin any day.  I take that news with a grain of salt but we'll see. 

This is like any conflict, something best not compared tactically to other wars as this has its own challenges and realities.  There is something to be said for using past conflicts as a guide, but there is always the trap of "Fighting the Last War" that comes into play when trying too hard to compare apples to apples.

We frankly won't know how this counteroffensive goes until the fall rains start to come into play and both sides begin to slow the campaigning season down.  If the UAF can't exploit gains further than they have now, it will be a failure.   However it must be made paramount that they have to consider that the survival of their army is more important than achieving limited success with catastrophic losses.  This is a hard calculus that is being made in Kyiv right now and its understandable if they achieve a limited political success like say, the liberation of Bakhmut, in exchange for preserving their manpower and waiting for more promised Western equipment, especially airpower.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 01:03:45 PM
when I use an example like Normandy I'm not referring to the battle itself, just the final part when the Germans just cracked and things got moving.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 04, 2023, 01:08:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 01:03:45 PMwhen I use an example like Normandy I'm not referring to the battle itself, just the final part when the Germans just cracked and things got moving.

Oh, I get you.  I just have been seeing a lot of Western Front WW1 and WW2 comparisons to it in the media that don't really bare apt comparisons to the current conflict.  Many pro-Ukrainian western outlets use Normandy as a drumbeat right now, many pro-Russians western analysts mention Somme/Verdun. 

This has more resemblance to Eastern Front battles for obvious reasons, but even then it falls short in any attempt to compare 1:1.  The success or failures here hinge on the tactics used for this war.  There's no proof yet that either side has unlocked the key to winning.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 01:12:24 PM
anyone want to guess what this new russian idea is?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0NKxhQWcAA0A_v?format=jpg&name=small)

as a hint it sure as shit points to Ukrainian victory
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 01:20:59 PM
didnt we used to have a way of hiding pictures behind a nsfw tag?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 04, 2023, 01:46:25 PM
What is a discount dragon's tooth, Alex.  Bring a pallet of concrete mix, just add water and you have an obstacle in the middle of the road. 

Either that or it is a pallet of nomenklatura bull shit. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 02:17:53 PM
how about compressed and flat packed russian corpses.......
theres are pics of it and others unwrapped which is why I asked where the nsfw bit was.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 02:26:55 PM
here ya go Slash, a succinct explanation.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1676278761342345216.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 04, 2023, 03:06:20 PM
Well, again, as long as the Ukrainians are forcing the Russians to send up reserves from the 2nd and 3rd (nominally) defensive lines to the front lines, that's an ongoing win for the Uks. Of course mines will slow down progress once the Russians have to stop sending reserves forward, but still.

I did not however realize the extent of Ukrainian reserves powering up with theme music (= training and fresh kit) in the backfield.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 04, 2023, 03:12:09 PM
Enforcer Matt summarizes the current situation around the Zappy nuclear plant, within 24 hours of the July 5th evacuation warning limit given to Ukrainian contractors.


Russian propaganda has started spinning out a warning that the Ukrainians will (supposedly) stage attacks on the plan within 24 hours (specifically during the evening locally), trying to make it look like the Russians did it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 04, 2023, 04:01:53 PM
I too watch the videos of progress, or lack of, in the war. Pro-Russian, Pro-Ukrainian, and right in the middle. Only the admittedly pro-Ukrainian sources are as certain of victory as you are Star. Neither side has lost or gained significant territory and I haven't seen or heard anyone claiming the Russkies are running low on bodies to throw-in to the fight. Rather sources I read claim the Uks have already lost approx. 20,000 men and the big battles haven't even begun yet. That is very much 'Verdun-like' so hardly can be called "extreme Ignorance" by anyone except those who believe this op is going swimmingly. The sources I saw say the Russians have about a 10-1 advantage in arty. And superiority in the air. So how exactly are the Uks supposed to win? This attritional campaign may take another year to make a significant dent in the numbers difference and Ukraine doesn't have the time before the fall begins to achieve it. So at some point they'll have to just throw everybody in a massive assault or sit tight until the F-16's can arrive. Then a whole new war will begin. But I could be wrong. Who knows?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 05:36:43 PM
dont know where you got "extreme ignorance" from.  kinda a self own from my perspective.  also, neither side has air superiority.  no one said anything about it going swimmingly either.  however its only the beginning of July so we'll see what happens.  care to mention the names of your sources?  I'd really like to know as you never provide links.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 06:29:08 PM
ORIKHIV AXIS /1900 UTC 4 JUL/ On 3 JUL, Russian units were contacted and pushed back after an encounter west of Kopani.  UKR forces are in contact north of Robotyne and are reported to have advanced 2 Km (approx. 1 mile) south.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0NqLT-XgAASaQh?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 04, 2023, 07:52:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 05:36:43 PMdont know where you got "extreme ignorance" from.

He was quoting my comment and assuming I was referring to him.  I'm not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 04, 2023, 08:17:50 PM
Task & Purpose nicely produces a video summarizing the Prigo situation from his early days up until 2 days ago, leaning as much as possible on known facts:


Amusingly, I clicked the code during the late commercial in the video, so at first the thumbnail showed a growling beaver! Irony?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 04, 2023, 08:28:57 PM
Of course, 2 days ago is a long time nowadays. Less than 24 hours later, Putin has announced an arrest warrant for Prigo. Apparently. Who even knows anymore!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on July 04, 2023, 09:10:40 PM
Twitter feed from Thomas Theiner that is worth considering when analyzing the state of the current Ukrainian offensive:
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1676278761342345216?s=61&t=N58_huWUQwPoI8YFJmKrEA
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 09:39:00 PM
thats the exact thread I posted on the last page as a unroll thingy.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 04, 2023, 10:12:47 PM
Apologies if I was mistaken about your post being about me Sir Andrew. I should've known better. I watch almost everything on YouTube about the war. Willy OAM I think as well as Military Summary and Weeb Union and others.  They post almost every day, sometimes twice a day. It's usually easy to tell who is for whom pretty quickly but generally they tell a very similar story.

It's easy to say what Ukraine is planning, going to do, trying to do, and such but no one knows for sure will they be able to do it. Not even Star with his extensive and highly placed contacts in the upper regions of military management worldwide I'd wager.

Ukraine's losing a lot of men they can't afford to right now, even with the small, platoon-sized skirmishing and probes, trying to find a weak spot in the lines, or create one, with very little luck so far while keeping their main striking forces intact waiting for a Russian miss-step or crack-up. If the Russians are at their breaking point no one I've seen anywhere has reported it, not even the clearly Pro-Ukrainian blogs. Even Zelensky says, "The Counteroffensive is not progressing as rapidly as desired". Not even Star would argue with him. So how long can they keep-up this little offensive before they either have to quit or go all-in? Days, weeks, months? Tell that to the poor bastards getting shot at everyday.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 10:20:36 PM
they're giving waaaaay better then they're receiving and territory is being retaken.  I'm also still seeing a steady stream of videos appealing to high authority about not going back to the front unless needs are met.
one of the maps I posted has a verified 2km advance for the last week or two.  its not US Army fast but it aint the US Army.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 04, 2023, 10:29:47 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 04, 2023, 10:12:47 PMApologies if I was mistaken about your post being about me Sir Andrew.

No worries and unnecessary.

To be clear my commentary was more directed at some of the mainstream media and a few of the more partisan mil bloggers.  I know that there had been some comparisons on similar lines and I understand the desire to do so, I merely caution against the danger of trying to make comparisons in general, especially until we actually know what the heck is really going on. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 10:34:11 PM
we wont for a while.  the story I cant wait to here about is the left behind partisans and what theyve been doing for the duration.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 05, 2023, 07:21:04 AM
Today's Prigozhin update kicks off early, from the Ukrainian Pravda which is SURELY a reliable source about this sort of thing.  :twirl:

I'm taking it with a grain of salt, but at the very least this is the current angle they're pushing. Or rather, this is what the Russian outlet Fontanka is claiming (with reference to sources), and UkPrav is reporting that.

The original Fontanka article for Russian readers: https://www.fontanka.ru/2023/07/05/72464159/

The UkPrav article, translated to English, via MSN: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/prigozhin-arrives-in-st-petersburg-takes-back-seized-weapons/ar-AA1ds4tH?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a8a028cb0cd242338a4459ab9a379537&ei=14

Short version, supposedly Prigo rolled up to the depot in St. Pete where the weapons seized from his personal stash had been stored, and claimed them with the approval of the Russian government, then rolled off again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 05, 2023, 07:33:49 AM
scratch one ammo dump

https://twitter.com/i/status/1676503203939069952
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on July 05, 2023, 07:39:24 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 04, 2023, 09:39:00 PMthats the exact thread I posted on the last page as a unroll thingy.  :ThumbsUp:

Whoops.  Sorry.  I really do read almost everything on this topic.  But I missed your post.  :embarrassed: 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 05, 2023, 07:51:43 AM
no worries, its a good post
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 05, 2023, 07:55:39 AM
Moscow Times translates more of the Fontanka report for those of us who, like myself, don't read Russian and don't understand how to do language conversion in print on the internet.  :tongue:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-returns-111m-seized-during-police-raids-to-prigozhin/ar-AA1dpXfK?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=b1daeb1c913a4d0888802a07877761ce&ei=31

This article focuses on the cash seized during the coup attempt and then returned to Prigo recently.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 05, 2023, 10:00:51 AM
Let's see what the ISW is up to in its assessments from yesterday (July 4th):

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4-2023

Summary:

QuoteUkrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment.

The current pace of Ukrainian operations is not indicative of a stalemate or evidence that Ukraine cannot retake large areas.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least four sectors of the front and advanced on July 4.

Russian and Ukrainian officials escalated their rhetoric surrounding the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 4, but Russia is likely focused on accusing Ukraine of irresponsible actions around the ZNPP including setting conditions for a possible false flag attack. Russia remains unlikely to generate a radiological incident at the ZNPP at this time.

Not totally sure that last paragraph and its further details make sense, but Russia-gonna-Russia.

QuoteThe reported reorganization of Russian internal security organs suggests that the Kremlin has not yet concluded that it has effectively neutralized the threats of future armed rebellions following the Wagner Group's June 23-24 rebellion.

Russian authorities are absolving Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of financial responsibility for damages caused by the Wagner Group rebellion and reportedly returned significant liquid assets to Prigozhin, possibly as part of the deal negotiated between Putin, Prigozhin, and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

Hm, they're taking that report of returning assets (and weapons) to Prigo kind-of seriously. Their further details summarize the state of play yesterday on this topic: "The Rostov-on-Don administration claimed that the total damages from Prigozhin's rebellion amounted to 92.5 million rubles (roughly $1 million), and that the administration will not recover damages from Prigozhin or the Wagner Group.[21] St. Petersburg news outlet Fontanka claimed, citing internal sources, that Russian authorities returned over 10 billion rubles (roughly $111 million) in cash, five gold bars, and hundreds of thousands of US dollars in cash to Prigozhin on July 2 that authorities had seized from Prigozhin-affiliated facilities in St. Petersburg on June 24.[22] Fontanka claimed that authorities only reversed their decision to hold onto Prigozhin's liquid assets on July 2 but did not specify a reason for the reversal. The legal basis that Russian authorities would have had for seizing Prigozhin's assets remains unclear in any case, as Russian authorities dropped criminal charges against Prigozhin for the rebellion.[23] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that part of Prigozhin's liquid assets were supposed to be compensation to the families of Russian pilots whom Wagner forces killed during the rebellion, but it is now uncertain whether Wagner will make those payments.[24] The milblogger assessed that Wagner will likely use at least part of the returned assets to support transferring Wagner Group personnel to Belarus."

QuoteThe official Chechen response to an attack against a Russian opposition journalist in Chechnya may impact Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov's standing in the Russian ultranationalist information space.

Kadyrov's prominence in the broader Russian information space will likely force Kadyrov to choose between preserving his regime and his support in the ultranationalist information space, however.

Russia is reportedly forming a new combined arms army as part of the Northern Fleet, likely in order to posture its preparedness against NATO.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack on Moscow Oblast and Novaya Moskva on July 4.

Russian conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and south of Kreminna.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian and Ukrainian forces escalated ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on July 4.

Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russia continues efforts to mobilize its defense industrial base (DIB).

Russian officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of providing pediatric healthcare.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 05, 2023, 11:56:18 AM
New contact today from Prigo, supposedly -- reported by Fox News, but I've got the original here: https://t.me/grey_zone/19396

The internet translates it as:

QuoteStatement by Yevgeny Prigozhin in response to the manifestations of the people that have been provided in recent days:

"Today we need your support more than ever. Thank you for that.

I want you to understand that our "March of Justice" was aimed at fighting traitors and mobilizing our society. And I think that we have succeeded in a lot of this.

In the near future, I am sure that you will see our next victories at the front. Thanks, guys!"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 05, 2023, 12:19:08 PM
The videos from last night were suggesting that most of the new fighting is centered around Bakhmut and that maybe the decisive confrontation in the counteroffensive. But that was last night. Different day, different story. Sir Andrew, and others, are right...we don't, and won't, know for sure what's really going on for some time now.

I just hope the next war will be one where all the little towns have pronounceable names.  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 05, 2023, 04:24:46 PM
I think it's hard to know exactly what's going on with Prigo, given the Fog of Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 05, 2023, 06:11:25 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 05, 2023, 11:56:18 AMNew contact today from Prigo, supposedly -- reported by Fox News, but I've got the original here: https://t.me/grey_zone/19396

The internet translates it as:

QuoteStatement by Yevgeny Prigozhin in response to the manifestations of the people that have been provided in recent days:

"Today we need your support more than ever. Thank you for that.

I want you to understand that our "March of Justice" was aimed at fighting traitors and mobilizing our society. And I think that we have succeeded in a lot of this.

In the near future, I am sure that you will see our next victories at the front. Thanks, guys!"

So what if you held a coup and nobody came?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 05, 2023, 10:14:41 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66023041

Wagner is making money in Africa from mercenary work and exploiting the resources including conflict diamonds and gold. In Mali, the UN and the French have been sent packing and has Wagner to deal with Islamic militants. In the Central African Republic:
QuoteThe CAR, which has been unstable for decades, is rich in diamonds, gold, oil and uranium.

Wagner has allowed President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, who even has the mercenaries as his bodyguards, to shrug off the influence of former colonial power France as the country tries to gain the upper hand against rebel groups - in return for a slice of the resource pie.

So much for throwing off the colonial shackles. But, I guess the French aren't so much for corruption as Wagner, just so long as you ignore the mass killings.

In Sudan, M Invest "owned or controlled by Prigozhin" has set up gold mines. Also in Libya and Mali:
QuoteBut strategically, Libya creates a gateway for Russia into Africa, strengthens its presence in the Mediterranean and aligns with the Kremlin's backing of Gen Haftar. Wagner mercenaries still remain around key oil facilities in Haftar strongholds in the east and south of the country - and sources have told the BBC there has not been a noticeable change on the ground since Saturday.

Wagner's interest in Mali may be linked to its rich gold reserves - though there is no evidence as yet of its firms operating there - and it is likely to be more strategic, opening up Russia's sphere of influence in West African countries under pressure from so-called Islamic State and al-Qaeda groups.

It would be wonderful if Wagner would collapse, however, there is too much prestige and influence in Africa as well as wealth at stake that Russia needs desperately right now for Putin and Prigozhin to continue with personal issues. I'll hazard a guess that Lukashenko would like some of that pie too as well as the potential for if not loyal, mercenary types to protect his regime.

I highly recommend the BBC article, it explains what Wagner is up to in Africa and its importance in generating wealth and political support.  Oh, and it also makes the allegation that Mali bought weapons from Turkey for Russia according to the leaked US documents.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 06, 2023, 10:36:17 AM
Good info from the ISW on why the Ukranian counter offensive is anything but a stalemate and bears no connection to grinding WWI style attrition tactics.

As has been mentioned before, the current counteroffensive mirrors more aptly the preliminary phases in the Kherson/Kharkiv offensives last year.  One pertinent bit:

"The current pace of Ukrainian operations is not indicative of a stalemate or evidence that Ukraine cannot retake large areas.

Ukrainian forces conducted slow and gradual interdiction campaigns against Russian concentration areas in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast and limited ground attacks on the west (right) bank between August and November of 2022, before finally forcing the Russian withdrawal from the right bank in mid-November.[4]

The situation in southern Ukraine is different, of course, because there is no natural bottleneck of the sort created by Russian reliance on the two bridges over the Dnipro. The Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson nevertheless alternated phases of relatively rapid advance with long periods of preparation, combat focused on attritting Russian forces, and limited gains that ultimately made Russian positions on the west bank of the river untenable. 

By contrast, the Russian winter-spring offensive culminated in just over one month without making significant gains along the Luhansk-Kharkiv Oblast border.[5]  The current Ukrainian counter-offensive is less dramatic and rapid than the one that liberated much of Kharkiv Oblast, more successful than the failed Russian winter offensive, and generally most like the slower but ultimately successful Kherson counteroffensive in its pace and initial progress."


The main gist of this and some other analysis that is not relying as much on Russian media has been that the UAF has largely been largely taking advantage of the Russians active defense, and are gladly allowing the Russians to expend ammo and waste more capable troops on locally destroyed counterattacks followed by careful advances to take the weakened defenses. 

This is mostly a strategy of Ukrainian force conservation, as they've inflicted significantly more casualties on the Russians than they've apparently taken. 

Important to note as well that even Western media is largely estimating Ukrainian losses on Russian sources as they are the only ones advertising it and the NATO MOD's are respecting UAF OPSEC.  We don't know what the UAF has expended with this strategy, but again make sure to note the UAF has made a priority of preserving its fighting strength and not accepting the typical 3:1 attacker loss rate.

Full analysis here:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4-2023
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on July 06, 2023, 11:30:16 AM
Slow methodical advance is probably prudent without local air superiority.  It was always my fear that the Ukrainians would concentrate a blitz formation of thousands of troops only to have them pummeled by Russian air power that has been waiting in the shadows for that moment. 

This slow strangling advance on a broad front puts tons of pressure on the Russians without proving a juicy bombing target.  The Russians can't fight every where on the front at once, eventually they'll crack...may take until September October.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 06, 2023, 01:56:52 PM
New RT show: 'The Lives of the Rich and Evil'  ;)

Russian state-run media news documentary doing its best to discredit Prigo with an expose on what was found in his home.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wigs-guns-and-a-giant-sledgehammer-russian-media-claims-to-show-wagner-mercenary-chief-s-home/ar-AA1dwxup?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=47e1fbe2d0fc45e68a3820165cea843b&ei=22 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wigs-guns-and-a-giant-sledgehammer-russian-media-claims-to-show-wagner-mercenary-chief-s-home/ar-AA1dwxup?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=47e1fbe2d0fc45e68a3820165cea843b&ei=22)

You really can't make up some of this stuff... 

Of course the irony is that if Russian media did a similar expose on any of the other monsters in Putin's regime, I am sure it would look similar.

Jason mentioned this stuff before, but this article has more pictures.

There were also reportedly some selfies of Prigo wearing disguises...but there is some discussion that these may be fake.

https://www.newsweek.com/prigozhin-photos-wagner-group-raid-mansion-wigs-disguises-1811258 (https://www.newsweek.com/prigozhin-photos-wagner-group-raid-mansion-wigs-disguises-1811258)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 07, 2023, 08:55:26 AM
Regarding the attrition of Russian defensive forces in front of the Meli/Maur coastal targets: I saw a report yesterday, though I can't provide a link to it (at work atm, can't find it again yet), indicating that the reserves on Russia's line are about used up, and Ukraine has started moving 30 fresh battalions into position on the line.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 07, 2023, 10:46:01 AM
So, looks like it's time for Vlad to do another Call-Up?  :shocked:   In Russia when they do a Draft Lottery everybody's number comes-up...always.  :hair:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 07, 2023, 03:11:08 PM
They're doing their draft the way the US did the Vietnam Draft, but only moreso.  You target the people least likely to complain and stay away from your key constituencies as much as possible. 

One example:  Draft rates of eligible ages in Moscow have been a fraction of what they've been in other regions.

My sense is that you need to do a call-up and start training troops BEFORE your defenses collapse, and not after.  But little of the Russian decision making since this conflict started has seemed to be sensible or even rational.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 07, 2023, 03:45:51 PM
In other news, lots of hubbub about Biden's decision to release cluster munitions to Ukraine.  While this was a worthwhile topic six or nine months ago and seems to keep with the Biden Administration's efforts to err on the side of caution when it comes arming Ukraine, this announcement raises a different question for me.  Are there any tactical implications, or is this unlikely to make much difference?

It looks like the new cluster munitions that we'll be sending are intended mostly or entirely for the 155mm howitzers.  I'm assuming that Ukrainian stocks of Russian-made and Turkish-provided cluster munitions are running scarce (or are only compatible with Russian-made guns?) and this won't be much of a game changer as we're now stepping in to pick up their slack.  Unless the UAF have always had limited supplies of these?

It would make sense that cluster munitions are more useful for attacking "semi-hard" targets like BMPs or light field fortifications, as opposed to the traditional HE warheads used by the US-made 155mm guns.  Does anybody have any ideas whether this might be the reason why this is getting so much attention?  Or is it simply the humanitarian implications for those who might already feel squeamish about the types of weapons we provide in this conflict?

A quick note on HIMARS use of cluster munitions:
While cluster munitions can be mounted on the HIMARS (and were the original warhead back when it was designed), the US has been providing the "Claymore-like" M31A1 and M31A2 warheads for a while now (in the first few months after Ukraine had HIMARS, they were only using the M31 unitary HE warheads, but that's changed).  So the only reason providing M30 cluster warheads for HIMARS might be a game changer is if we were running out of our M31A1 and M31A2 warheads?  Either way, I don't see this being much of a game-changer for the HIMARS.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on July 07, 2023, 04:17:43 PM
I'm not sure why the CBUs are getting so much airtime either.  Hand em over if they clear out the trenches and minefields sooner.  The ones I drop from my planes in DCS are quite effective, so I'm not surprised that they are highly sought after by the Ukrainians. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 07, 2023, 04:37:50 PM
It would be a humanitarian issue.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66133527
QuoteWhy are they banned?
More than 100 countries, including the UK, France and Germany, have signed an international treaty - the Convention on Cluster Munitions - that outlaws the use or stockpiling of these weapons due to their indiscriminate effect on civilian populations.

Children are particularly prone to injury as the bomblets can resemble a small toy left in a residential or farmland area and are often picked up out of curiosity.

Human rights groups have described cluster munitions as "abhorrent" and even a war crime.

Even with or without sending DP ICMs to Ukraine, mines and other explosives will be killing for a long time.  If we use Egypt for comparison, according to https://www.sis.gov.eg/Story/106/Landmines-in-Egypt?lang=en-us landmines from the Arab-Israeli wars and the Second World War have injured or kllled nearly 8000 people in the 25 years before 2009.  Can't find info on recent incidents.

Unfortunately, DP ICMs do not self-destruct like FASCAM.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 07, 2023, 04:39:47 PM
the claymore type warheads have a single burst pattern.  while very effective theyll always have that pattern and the rockets arent cheap.  cluster munitions have a carpeting burst patters so shrapnel is flying in every which direction so its much better at blanketing things like trenches and vehicle formations.  not only do they cost a
lot less, we're not going to use them anymore anyway.  I think they'll have a pretty big effect.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 07, 2023, 04:41:35 PM
Quote from: Skoop on July 07, 2023, 04:17:43 PMI'm not sure why the CBUs are getting so much airtime either.  Hand em over if they clear out the trenches and minefields sooner.  The ones I drop from my planes in DCS are quite effective, so I'm not surprised that they are highly sought after by the Ukrainians. 

I dont see the UkAF doing many low passes over the front lines to drop these.
however.... JDAMCBU's could become a thing.  :Dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 07, 2023, 05:13:35 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 07, 2023, 04:39:47 PMthe claymore type warheads have a single burst pattern.  while very effective theyll always have that pattern and the rockets arent cheap.  cluster munitions have a carpeting burst patters so shrapnel is flying in every which direction so its much better at blanketing things like trenches and vehicle formations.  not only do they cost a
lot less, we're not going to use them anymore anyway.  I think they'll have a pretty big effect.

That does make sense to me, I guess.  The more random/distributed burst pattern means that you'll really need to be hiding under something solid, as opposed to sheltering behind a thick wall and hoping the burst pattern from the tungsten balls originates somewhere on the opposite side of the wall.

Of course, the tungsten ball warhead is somewhat unique to the HIMARS.  If there's any similar shell used by the 155mm howitzers, I couldn't find it in the Font of All Wisdom.  Which gets me back to my original supposition:  Will the introduction of these make a difference versus the similar shells they were getting from their own inventories and from Turkey previously?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 07, 2023, 05:25:50 PM
Wagner has been turfed out of Syria by the Russian and Syrian militaries and lost a "logistics hub to transit Wagner fighters on to Libya and elswhere in Africa".  Syrian intelligence cutoff Wagner communications and its leaders were summoned by the Russian military "in the early hours of the mutiny"
QuoteBy June 24, Wagner fighters in Syria were asked to sign new contracts by which they report directly to Russia's defence ministry, a source with knowledge of Wagner's deployments and two other sources with knowledge of the events said.

Their pay was also cut, those three sources said.

Those who refused the terms were flown out on Russian Ilyushin planes in the following days, two of those sources said. One said they numbered "in the dozens," surprising Syrian officials who expected more would refuse and head into exile.

Wagner troops are also leaving the Central African Republichttps://ca.news.yahoo.com/wagner-troops-leave-central-african-142000165.html
QuoteSenior sources from CAR's ministry of defence and an official from the Russian embassy have revealed around 400 Wagner employees left the capital on two planes on Wednesday, confirming local reports of Wagner disengagement.

One ministry of defence official said the Wagner Group personnel who left refused to sign new contracts with Russia's ministry of defence.

He revealed between 1,300 and 1,400 Wagner employees still remained in the country but that around a hundred were packing up to leave Bouar, a key base on the trading route with Cameroon.

From https://mwi.westpoint.edu/prigozhins-gambit-how-disastrous-could-wagners-aborted-coup-be-for-putin-and-his-war-in-ukraine/  an instructor at West Point posits that the future for Wagner is poor.
QuoteThe implications of Wagner's actions inside Russia will reverberate well beyond its borders, as well. While Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claims that Wagner operations will continue in Mali and the Central African Republic as before, it is impossible that this failed rebellion will not change the dynamics between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense, on which it relies for logistical and transportation support for its operations in these countries. Wagner is no longer seen as a reliable arm of Russian policy. African governments may also change their minds about Russian involvement going forward. Additionally, the eight thousand Wagner troops moving into camps in southern Belarus can be hardly a reassuring sight for Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko and his beleaguered post-Soviet army. Lukashenko will have to rely upon Prigozhin's fear of Putin and gratitude for Lukashenko brokering his exile deal to keep the former caterer from turning his march of justice upon Minsk and enforcing a Wagner-led regime change.

Without heavy weapons Wagner wouldn't be as great a threat to Minsk as it was to Moscow, but the move to Belarus has not been made and Prigozhin is in Russia according to Lukashenko.  Presumably to convince others of his indispensability if not his irreplaceability. 

There has not been word of Wagner being forced to leave Libya or Maii.  Clearly if the Russian military convinces these countries that Wagner is no longer viable, Prigozhin's indespensability will have ended. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 07, 2023, 05:27:55 PM
QuoteWill the introduction of these make a difference versus the similar shells they were getting from their own inventories and from Turkey previously?

just that theyll be able to use them more liberally instead of hording them for specific targets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 07, 2023, 06:21:46 PM
for russia the real dildo of consequence has arrived!   :Party:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1677420778357243905
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 07, 2023, 06:32:37 PM
this M1 article from tass is a fucking riot!

https://tass.com/defense/1567245
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 07, 2023, 07:31:01 PM
another nice thing about the arty cluster rounds and that we have sooooooooo many to give.
these numbers are huge.

https://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/arms/cluster0705/2.htm
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on July 07, 2023, 08:48:33 PM
I'm surprised the UN isn't saying anything about the cluster munitions.  I thought these were banned by the international community?

On another note, has there been any effort, either in the UN or Nato, to begin dialogues for peace negotiations?  Isn't the UN's job to mediate peace between warring parties?  As sad as this may sound, I can understand the UN not paying much attention to the tragedies occurring in Africa, but in Europe why is no one trying to initiate peace talks other than China (which recently proposed a peace deal)?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 07, 2023, 09:48:16 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on July 07, 2023, 08:48:33 PMOn another note, has there been any effort, either in the UN or Nato, to begin dialogues for peace negotiations?  Isn't the UN's job to mediate peace between warring parties? 

Neither side is willing to engage in dialouge. 

Russia's hard line to begin negotiations is Ukraine's army to stand down and surrender its equipment, agree in principal to cede all annexed territory, sign a treaty forever promising to not join NATO, and accept Russian led "de-Nazification" of the Ukrainian government.

Ukraine's hard line is that all Russian military forces withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Donbas and Crimea. 

Neither side will, nor could they really ever agree to the other's demands without a decisive battlefield decision so what is the UN to do?  Peace feelers were sent and the Ukrainian government tried to negotiate last year.  The Russian line has not only not changed, but their demands have increased as time has gone on.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 07, 2023, 10:19:57 PM
That is their Public positions, much the same way Israel and her Arab enemies always denied accepting anything but total victory. But behind the scenes deals were made after offers and counter offers went back and forth. Eventually both sides felt a good enough deal could be made to go for a Cease Fire, then something more permanent. Same thing could happen here if someone would try. And some have. But trying and failing is still trying at least.

The UN will oppose Cluster Munitions in use by either side but as I understand it, both sides have already used this type weapon before, especially the Orcs, so it's probably too late to put that ketchup back in the bottle. I saw the other day a Russian soldier claim the Ukrainians had used Chemical Weapons against them. Probably a total BS claim but if either side began use of them, that would be a massive escalation in this war.  :HideEyes: 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 07, 2023, 10:27:31 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 07, 2023, 10:19:57 PMThat is their Public positions, much the same way Israel and her Arab enemies always denied accepting anything but total victory. But behind the scenes deals were made after offers and counter offers went back and forth. Eventually both sides felt a good enough deal could be made to go for a Cease Fire, then something more permanent. Same thing could happen here if someone would try. And some have. But trying and failing is still trying at least.


And there have been attempts.  A lot of attempts that aren't even made public.  Russia does not feel they CAN compromise because they took steps too far like annexing territory that in some cases they now don't even control. 

I know for a fact that Ukraine's far more willing to talk than they seem, not going to go into that but a long way back in this thread I talked about a potential peace deal that could be workable.  I didn't just invent that off the top of my head.  The issue there is that as reasonable as it was, Russia turned it down. 

The problem comes that in Moscow, Shoigu and Patrushev continue to whisper victory in Putin's ear and that is one of the reasons he decided to "Burn the ships" as it were by pushing the annexation order. 

It's going to take something impossibly bad to hide for the Russians on the battlefield to force them off their minimum negotiations.  They have to have no choice. 

This is because we're not talking about Russia making a peace decision in its best interests.  We're talking about a REGIME making the decision in its interests.  Russia's interests are not even remotely in the minds of the men actually making the decisions in power. 

That's a hard position to negotiate with.  They must have an exit strategy that makes them able to sell a victory to their people, even in defeat.  That's almost impossible given the current situation, especially post annexation. 

There may not even be a chance to force the regime to negotiate.  It may need to be forced to collapse. 

This is not the realm of the reasonable or sane. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 08, 2023, 02:11:11 AM
Russia is not a party to CCM (Convention on Cluster Munitions), nor is Ukraine, nor is any of Russia's neighbouring countries, including Finland. US is not part of CCM.

I find it not a little offensive Human Rights Watch, among other "Peace" organisations, makes a statement to not allow Ukraine to use them on their own soil.

Contrary to popular belief, HRW had actually condemned Russia, too. Based on a tweet from some net detective, they had done that on April 2022. Once. Instead of reiterating their stance on cluster munitions by retweeting their view each and every day Russia violates international law, among many other things by continuosly using cluster munitions indiscriminately (discriminately?) on civil targets, they are quiet. Russian cluster munitions have a fail rate of 30-40%, by the way, according to this Guardian article (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/07/joe-biden-military-aid-ukraine-war-cluster-bombs-human-rights-groups).

This is not a she said - he said. Hopefully Ukraine gets a ton of all types of arms they need to defend their country against a brutal aggressor, as Charter of United Nations allows them.

On this 500th day of unprovoked Russian aggression, Switzerland, playing "neutral" and thus continuing not sending arms to Ukraine, nor allow any system to be exported that has Swiss components, here's to you as well  :tickedoff:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on July 08, 2023, 08:33:22 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 07, 2023, 10:27:31 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 07, 2023, 10:19:57 PMThat is their Public positions, much the same way Israel and her Arab enemies always denied accepting anything but total victory. But behind the scenes deals were made after offers and counter offers went back and forth. Eventually both sides felt a good enough deal could be made to go for a Cease Fire, then something more permanent. Same thing could happen here if someone would try. And some have. But trying and failing is still trying at least.


And there have been attempts.  A lot of attempts that aren't even made public.  Russia does not feel they CAN compromise because they took steps too far like annexing territory that in some cases they now don't even control. 

I know for a fact that Ukraine's far more willing to talk than they seem, not going to go into that but a long way back in this thread I talked about a potential peace deal that could be workable.  I didn't just invent that off the top of my head.  The issue there is that as reasonable as it was, Russia turned it down. 

The problem comes that in Moscow, Shoigu and Patrushev continue to whisper victory in Putin's ear and that is one of the reasons he decided to "Burn the ships" as it were by pushing the annexation order. 

It's going to take something impossibly bad to hide for the Russians on the battlefield to force them off their minimum negotiations.  They have to have no choice. 

This is because we're not talking about Russia making a peace decision in its best interests.  We're talking about a REGIME making the decision in its interests.  Russia's interests are not even remotely in the minds of the men actually making the decisions in power. 

That's a hard position to negotiate with.  They must have an exit strategy that makes them able to sell a victory to their people, even in defeat.  That's almost impossible given the current situation, especially post annexation. 

There may not even be a chance to force the regime to negotiate.  It may need to be forced to collapse. 

This is not the realm of the reasonable or sane. 

Unfortunately, I believe your analysis is correct )-:  There will need to be a collapse of the Russian government before Ukraine and Russia can negotiate an end to the war. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 08, 2023, 09:21:01 AM
What's scary to me is the Russian leadership seems to be a bag of cats right now. I don't think anybody knows who's on who's side and who is in charge of what. Desperate people will do desperate things to stay in power and pull the rug out from under rivals. A new Russian Civil War maybe closer than ever.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on July 08, 2023, 10:07:15 AM
Even so despite the stubbornness of both sides for whatever reason, talks should be made constantly.  A strategy of diplomacy is not not give up on talking because eventually deals can be made. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on July 08, 2023, 11:23:39 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on July 08, 2023, 10:07:15 AMEven so despite the stubbornness of both sides for whatever reason, talks should be made constantly.  A strategy of diplomacy is not not give up on talking because eventually deals can be made. 

Just wanted to point out that during WW2, the Allies were set on Unconditional Surrender.  I think (without facts to back it up) that this was due to the survival of the Axis regimes being insufferable for the world.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 08, 2023, 11:28:41 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on July 08, 2023, 10:07:15 AMEven so despite the stubbornness of both sides for whatever reason, talks should be made constantly.  A strategy of diplomacy is not not give up on talking because eventually deals can be made. 

Talks are being held, just quietly and not with Putin. 

One of those things I'm not going to say much more about because I got it from someone who shouldn't have told me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 08, 2023, 11:37:44 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on July 08, 2023, 11:23:39 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on July 08, 2023, 10:07:15 AMEven so despite the stubbornness of both sides for whatever reason, talks should be made constantly.  A strategy of diplomacy is not not give up on talking because eventually deals can be made. 

Just wanted to point out that during WW2, the Allies were set on Unconditional Surrender.  I think (without facts to back it up) that this was due to the survival of the Axis regimes being insufferable for the world.

My sense is that it also had a lot to do with the lessons learned from the failure of the Treaty of Versailles.  I could go back and reread the autobiographies of Churchill and Harriman for confirmation, but I'm too lazy.

If there is anywhere in the world a more fantastically beautiful building with as flawed a historical reputation as the Castle of Versailles where the treaty was signed, I don't know what it might be.  I was there 4 weeks ago for the first (and probably only) time in my life, and it was spectacular.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 08, 2023, 11:38:12 AM
If Russia ends up in a Civil War, is there any way that they use nuclear weapons on themselves? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 08, 2023, 11:40:45 AM
Out of 6000 nukes I have been worried that just one gets...unhinged.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on July 08, 2023, 01:45:02 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 08, 2023, 11:40:45 AMOut of 6000 nukes I have been worried that just one gets...unhinged.
One is never enough. 
Anyone remember the movie Fail Safe?  Gave me nightmares.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 08, 2023, 01:53:24 PM
A bag of cats being thrown in the river...  :justice:

On WW2, Churchill and the Allied leadership were VERY MUCH committed to unconditional surrender. They were also (in the West, with some lip service by Stalin to get what he wanted) committed to mercy to the Axis people if their leaders surrendered unconditionally.

And talks still went on a regular basis between the Axis powers and the West, at least from 1943 onward when the European Axis powers realized they weren't going to get what they wanted, and instead were going to get pounded back to the stone age if they kept going. But Churchill (and FDR) constantly insisted that no agreements could be made without unconditional surrender, and made sure their commanders in the field understood that, too. So did Stalin, in his own way. And the Western leaders did their best to make sure Stalin knew they weren't trying to get a peace separate from Stalin.

Churchill talks a lot about this in his WW2 memoirs, which I finished reading earlier this year.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 08, 2023, 01:56:32 PM
Business Basics summarizes some coup news up to 14 hours ago:


One of the more interesting subtle tidbits in the embedded videos from that video, is the claim from the remnants of a Russian company, that "Z" and "storm" units are actually penal squadrons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on July 08, 2023, 04:26:12 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on July 08, 2023, 11:23:39 AM
Quote from: W8taminute on July 08, 2023, 10:07:15 AMEven so despite the stubbornness of both sides for whatever reason, talks should be made constantly.  A strategy of diplomacy is not not give up on talking because eventually deals can be made. 

Just wanted to point out that during WW2, the Allies were set on Unconditional Surrender.  I think (without facts to back it up) that this was due to the survival of the Axis regimes being insufferable for the world.

Yes indeed true, however Russia's war against Ukraine is not a world war.  Not yet anyway.  That's why it's so important to talk now before we're all backed into the corner of fighting to the death on a global level.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 08, 2023, 11:47:33 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on July 08, 2023, 04:26:12 PMYes indeed true, however Russia's war against Ukraine is not a world war.  Not yet anyway.  That's why it's so important to talk now before we're all backed into the corner of fighting to the death on a global level.

A problem here is one I think you don't understand.

The people in power in Russia do not WANT to negotiate.

No matter what the current battlefield results show, they have zero desire for a peaceful soultion.

They want, need and desire for this to end with a corridor to Moldavia via Odesa, to have territory to the Dniper and to have Ukraine capitulate.

And this is 100% because they have future ambitions.  In the Balkans, in Poland.

This war isn't something to get a small win in and go home.  This is the start point.  The hyper nationalists like Shoigu and Patrushev see this as step one.

Putin was won over by them over time.  He planned for this, committed his nation to this for years.  He implemented a major reformation of the Russian army that he didn't complete for just this very purpose.

So, this idea that they'd bargain or negotiate is absurd.

They want this war, the need it, and they won't believe it's lost until it is staring them in the face.

Believe me, they've had offers.  They refused it.  They want to win and they will possibly do anything to achieve it. 

They've already doomed 300k of their own people on a useless ash heap to get their goals.  Why on earth do you think they'd be reasonable now?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 09, 2023, 10:01:01 AM
What's absurd is to think the ultra-Nationalists wouldn't negotiate to save their own asses in the face of the people/army rising-up against them. The total failure of Putin's dream of a new Russian Empire has shown the power people behind him that he is not the horse to bet on and now maybe a really good time to jump off the sinking S.S. Putin and lay low for awhile. The dream will remain but it's been demonstrated that Russia simply doesn't have the capability to accomplish it. To save their wealth and privileged positions, the leadership almost has to make a deal. It will only get worse if the army suffers a major defeat. Another one I mean. Just because they SAY they won't talk doesn't mean they won't talk. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 09, 2023, 10:31:25 AM
If they retreat from Ukraine, do you think THEY will be displaced from within the Russian elite hierarchy while Putin remains on top?  If that faction is fighting for their survival, and Putin is mostly listening to them, we'd have a circular thinking loop there with predictable results.

It's been obvious that, while the Russian media has been free to critique the generals, complaints about Putin or the Ukraine-as-a-province policy have resulted in swift imprisonment or high-altitude defenestration. 

Again, trying to understand exactly what's going on in internal Russian political circles when is incredibly hard.  I'm not disagreeing with Andrew's thesis above, and the "bag of cats across a river in a wet sack" analogy seems spot on.  But even the experts have only imperfect guesses about how the internal power structure in Russian politics will change next.

Whatever happens in Russia, it's bound to surprise us.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 09, 2023, 11:39:37 AM
The scariest thing is that there are many in Russia that don't think Putin has gone far enough, and he's getting pressure from them as well.

Please note, Prighozhin's mutiny was absolutely not to end the war.  He wanted to expand it and take it further. 

There isn't much of a peace lobby in Moscow.  Putin's greatest fear is that he will look weak and seem to be close to defeat, not that he'll be overthrown by those close to him that will wish to end the conflict.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 09, 2023, 11:53:13 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 09, 2023, 11:39:37 AMThe scariest thing is that there are many in Russia that don't think Putin has gone far enough, and he's getting pressure from them as well.

Please note, Prighozhin's mutiny was absolutely not to end the war.  He wanted to expand it and take it further. 

There isn't much of a peace lobby in Moscow.  Putin's greatest fear is that he will look weak and seem to be close to defeat, not that he'll be overthrown by those close to him that will wish to end the conflict.

The only viable opposition movement in Russia that I am aware of is the war opposition, who indeed believe Putin is not tough enough.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 09, 2023, 01:45:42 PM
Interestingly on the topic, the information I was referring to kind of sideways a few days ago has gotten a little coverage:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/former-us-officials-secret-ukraine-talks-russians-war-ukraine-rcna92610

I'm going to let that article stand and not comment further so I won't get my connection into trouble. 

I will say that this is typically how you have to negotiate with Russians, quietly with atypical routes. 

It's a hard thing for western mindsets and world views to get, but Russians almost never negotiate from a position that they consider weakness.

Remember that this was a country that when Chechen terrorists took a movie theater hostage and made demands, the Russians used chemical weapons on their own hostages and killed a large number of them just to make sure they took out the Chechens too. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 09, 2023, 02:37:30 PM
What is Russia's plan for Poland?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 09, 2023, 02:49:12 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 09, 2023, 02:37:30 PMWhat is Russia's plan for Poland?

The ultra-nationalists want Poland out of NATO and in the Russian sphere of influence.  Some of the more extreme voices want to reassert claims on the Eastern territories.

The Russian media under direction of the government regularly cook up conspiracy theories about Poland being truly behind the war in Ukraine, and that the Poles are trying to instigate a war.  They generally point fingers and accuse the evil Anglo-Nazi conspiracy using Poland as its puppet and a future launching point for an attack on Russia. 

Essentially the same rhetoric they drummed up about Ukraine prior to the war.

The Polish government feels a conflict with Russia is inevitable, and this has led to a rise in Nationalist movements and their plans to enlarge and modernize their military to the point where they have a goal to have the strongest land army in Europe by 2030. 

The sad thing is that the stronger Polish nationalism becomes, the more that the Russian media postulates that Poland needs to be de-nazified too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 09, 2023, 02:51:08 PM
Is Russia's plan to goad Poland into striking first?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 09, 2023, 02:52:49 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 09, 2023, 02:51:08 PMIs Russia's plan to goad Poland into striking first?

That wouldn't be surprising and would nullify Article 5.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 09, 2023, 02:54:55 PM
I have read in mainstream media that the Poles have been considering striking Russia 'pre-emptively' on and off since the Ukraine War began. It sounds like each time the Poles get close to the edge that NATO and the US talk them back.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 09, 2023, 02:58:56 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 09, 2023, 02:54:55 PMI have read in mainstream media that the Poles have been considering striking Russia 'pre-emptively' on and off since the Ukraine War began. It sounds like each time the Poles get close to the edge that NATO and the US talk them back.

Yeah, that is part of the issue with there being a strong Nationalist movement in Poland. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 09, 2023, 03:09:24 PM
How does Poland plan to pre-emptively win a war versus a nuclear superpower?  Isn't that kind of hard to do when you have no independent nuclear deterrent of your own?

I guess ultra nationalists don't have to think rationally to take action.  Thus the "ultra" part of that label, similar to the Russian ultra-nationalists.

It's interesting to see how easily we Westerners mistook green shoots of liberalism in Russian civil society (through NGOs, academic circles, etc.) as a harbinger of increasing liberalism on the part of their government.  That never really spread to the national government, although we did see a few mayoral races gets exciting (e.g., Navalny got 27% of the vote in the Moscow mayoral race in 2013).

We should have been paying more attention to what Putin and the Russian hardliner faction started to do to media and to opposing governments in nearby countries over the last decade.  With the excuse of a war on his border, Putin has used civil law to expose and imprison most of the would-be liberal actors within Russia, who never really had any credible power in the first place.

Putin always had the reputation for being a cunning pragmatist.  At some point in the last 10 years, he clearly went off the rails there.  The consequences have already been dire.  I hope they get no worse.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on July 10, 2023, 01:20:05 AM
I've watched a few of this guys videos.

He reckons the Ukrainians might strip the cluster bombs down to use for drone attacks...each shell giving 80? individual bomblets. He argues using them for clearing minefields isn't tenable due to leaving UXBs behinds when landing, creating additional "mines". He also mentioned using them against trenches not being particularly useful.

Anyway - worth a watch

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 10, 2023, 07:29:20 AM
Business Insider reports on Turkey returning POWs to Ukraine -- all five of them being from the Azov battalion:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-said-it-was-blindsided-by-turkey-after-zelenskyy-left-the-country-with-formerly-imprisoned-azov-battalion-members/ar-AA1dCbRg?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=73e036a50f754c9f8339c30576191510&ei=46

At least another 22 are currently in Russian prison(s?) on trial (by Russian propaganda standards) as terrorists.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 10, 2023, 07:59:11 AM
Re why the Russians don't want to negotiate and see their only option as total control of Ukraine: I've reported on this a few times, but due to mismanagement of Russia by the kleptocracy, the government has completely screwed over Russia's ability to survive as a nation in several key ways; and one side effect of this has been a culturally fatal decline in the birthrate for too long, so now they have a demographic time-bomb going off.

(This is also a main reason why Russia is kidnapping Ukrainian kids under their control, except being 'Orks' they can't resist murdering off Ukrainian children in the worst ways possible, too.)

Their people are too old and untrained, and the government incompetently overmanages them (to siphon off cash from the people for themselves, thus a kleptocracy), to continue functioning as a nation. This is a major overarching reason why, despite Putin trying to institute a recovery of his military strength (under-against the crime syndicate's desire to keep the military weak and bullied, and so avoid coups against them), the military turned out to be cripplingly unable to function on core requirements of logistics (including original and ongoing supply at all levels) and training.

Ironically the invasion of Ukraine has only made all this worse in many ways, which was bound to happen UNLESS Russia scored an early win by shattering the Ukrainian government in the first day or two. Which is why they surprisingly went for the 'knock on all doors' Hail Mary assault all around the border at the beginning, which was even worse for their supply and C&C: they weren't going to be able to support even a focused assault (so to speak) so they might as well punch for a technical knockout in the first round, and hope for the best.

But before Russia had fired the first shot, they had something like 10 years left to survive as a nation. This really is an existential crisis, for survival as a nation-state -- but their government sure ain't gonna blame themselves and their Godforsaken policies for that!

Even taking control of Ukraine won't really solve their problem, only delay it -- or rather, it would have delayed their crumbling had Russia been able to take over the country more-or-less intact with a decapitation and replacement of the Ukrainian governmental functions. Now they've aggro'd the Cossacks personally, so it has to be war to the knife, which is going to ruin everything for which they needed Ukraine in order for Russia (as a nation-state under control of the kleptocracy) to survive 20 or 25 more years instead of 10.


The more-overly-short version, is that Putin and his cronies have ruined Russia so badly, that they need to take over Ukraine to be able to continue stealing things in the manner to which they have become accustomed -- because they have no intention (or even capability, really) to do anything better as a government. But they can't take over Ukraine intact anymore, so they're even-more shackled to a locomotive hurtling toward a cliff than they were before. Now it's down to taking Ukraine and making Ukraine a nightmare example, to show they aren't really as weak as they've made themselves look (through no faults but their own).


The even-more-metaphorical version ,is that Putin and his cronies have been chugging vodka for so long and hard, even by Russian standards, that they're developing fatal alcohol poisoning, and they feel like chugging more vodka will at least keep the hangover off while they die, angry-drunk telling themselves and everyone else it's everyone's faults but their own, lashing out drunkenly but destructively as they stumble around in the opening stages of terminal cirrhosis (...amusingly, the auto-fill predicted I'd type cirrhosis there...), dreaming of how they coulda been a contender and that this shows everyone they still could be.

Which is why everyone is at least a little worried that they'll take all the dynamite sticks they've got stored up in closets around the house, and start throwing those out across the neighborhood, including jealously at the mansion-complexes of apparently-equally corrupt bourgeois over there. The dynamite sticks are sweating nitroglycerin, by the way.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 10, 2023, 03:53:45 PM
Looks like Turkey has dropped its veto on Sweden...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/turkish-president-erdo%C4%9Fan-agrees-to-back-sweden-s-nato-bid-stoltenberg-says/ar-AA1dGgH3?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b79a4a21ae1c474ba1efc8bf5da096df&ei=9 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/turkish-president-erdo%C4%9Fan-agrees-to-back-sweden-s-nato-bid-stoltenberg-says/ar-AA1dGgH3?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b79a4a21ae1c474ba1efc8bf5da096df&ei=9)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 10, 2023, 04:02:26 PM
400 Wagner fighters flying back to Moscow from the CentAfiRepub, and Zelensky visits Snake Island, among other bits of news:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 10, 2023, 04:08:13 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 10, 2023, 07:59:11 AMRe why the Russians don't want to negotiate and see their only option as total control of Ukraine: I've reported on this a few times, but due to mismanagement of Russia by the kleptocracy, the government has completely screwed over Russia's ability to survive as a nation in several key ways; and one side effect of this has been a culturally fatal decline in the birthrate for too long, so now they have a demographic time-bomb going off.
...

Putin has f**ked Russia pretty badly. When the whole thing comes crashing down, Putin is going to have a thousand new holes and will be hanging half-naked upside-down in Red Square.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 10, 2023, 04:35:16 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0s7j29WwAE4bLd?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 10, 2023, 05:39:36 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on July 10, 2023, 04:08:13 PMPutin has f**ked Russia pretty badly. When the whole thing comes crashing down, Putin is going to have a thousand new holes and will be hanging half-naked upside-down in Red Square.

On his removal, he deserves to be moved into a basement apartment in Yekaterinaberg with his whole family as befits his position as Czar.  All this crap of the last twenty-four years could have been avoided if Yeltsin's protege, Nemtsov, had not been sidelined to protect the kleptocrats.  A few less apartments in Moscow would have blown up as well.

As for Russia's economic future, Russian ex-pats may return with money and new business ideas to invest as happened with Poland after the fall of communism.  Hopefully, the oligarchs will vanish, whether voluntarily or not. 

As for Turkeys Erdogan (did I forget an apostrophe, there?), Turkiye's inflation for June was 38%, the lowest in a year and a half.  Sadly, this was not enough to lose him the election in May.  But, it can't but help put him in a position to bargain renewed admittance to the EU for putting admittance of Sweden to NATO to a vote in Turkish parliament.

As for the S-400 system, https://www.businessinsider.com/turkey-russia-s400-too-politically-costly-to-get-rid-of-2023-7?op=1  they were a great act of defiance for Erdogan but a non-integrated air defence system with ""blind spots" that limit the S-400's effectiveness".
QuoteThis counterhegemonic narrative was promoted by non-AKP figures, including members of the main opposition party, voices on the extreme left and extreme right, and former high-ranking military officials. This meant sticking with the S-400 gave Erdogan and his party political benefits, but it also made it politically costlier for Ankara to abandon what is now seen as a suboptimal air-defense system and to mend its relationship with NATO, according to Hintz and Banks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 11, 2023, 01:50:27 AM
Recorded in the State Hall of the Parliament, even.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1678441004188291072

Original tweet (https://twitter.com/adleande/status/1678107203595632641)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 09:48:42 AM
personally I dont like Turkish politics but I have to say that Erdogan has played his cards masterfully.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 12:59:04 PM
russia complains about US cluster munitions......
heres some Ukranians standing in front of a pile of russian cluster munitions...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0xBFSbWAAElccE?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 01:35:07 PM
 :ROFL:

NAFO!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1678648182857777157
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 01:53:03 PM
for a totally random thing, russia rally cross  :ROFL:
is there anything these morons do right?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1678804774429261830
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 11, 2023, 02:21:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 01:53:03 PMfor a totally random thing, russia rally cross  :ROFL:
is there anything these morons do right?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1678804774429261830

Man, were all their drivers James May or something?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 03:25:38 PM
more Richard Hammond  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 11, 2023, 04:16:57 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 03:25:38 PMmore Richard Hammond  :HideEyes:

Most of the time correct, but might want to check out the last season of the Grand Tour with the rally car tunnel stunt.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 11, 2023, 07:41:14 PM
Damn, I thought for sure the next to last driver was gonna make it  :twirl:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 11, 2023, 10:19:39 PM
That looks like our local Wal-Mart parking lot when they have 2 for 1 Nightcrawlers.  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 10:38:00 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 11, 2023, 04:16:57 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 03:25:38 PMmore Richard Hammond  :HideEyes:

Most of the time correct, but might want to check out the last season of the Grand Tour with the rally car tunnel stunt.

there really wasnt a corner in the sub base though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 12, 2023, 08:27:08 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 01:35:07 PM:ROFL:

NAFO!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1678648182857777157

A lot of cute things in that production (AI aided I suppose), but I was disappointed that Montenegro didn't have that awesome king from the WW1 period, chilling and grilling on his porch. (I guess it wouldn't have fit into the current leadership enough.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on July 12, 2023, 08:47:02 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 11, 2023, 09:48:42 AMpersonally I dont like Turkish politics but I have to say that Erdogan has played his cards masterfully.

That's because Erdogan badly wants the deal for our F-16 jets to materialize. In any case, he probably recognizes that moving away from Russia and toward Europe is a smart move.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 12, 2023, 09:50:31 AM
Jason you have a pic of that Montenegrin king? I need that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 12, 2023, 10:24:45 AM
Quote from: Gusington on July 12, 2023, 09:50:31 AMJason you have a pic of that Montenegrin king? I need that.

Behold the glory of Nicholas I of Montenegro!

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/89/d5/2e/89d52ef7d02b2512056a4eb82d7e0e18.jpg)

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=nicholas+i+of+montenegro&cbn=KnowledgeCard&stid=9f886bf1-7b44-560e-9194-70cf45993118&disoverlay=1&form=IARRSM&first=1

Reportedly, he would hang out on his front porch grilling in the evening and chatting with his neighbors as they passed by, sharing dinner with them, which is how he helped solve problems for his local peasantry. I couldn't find a photo/portrait of that, but here he is on a balcony above his front porch if I understand correctly.

(https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/history-20th-century-king-nicholas-i-of-montenegro-before-a-crowd-at-picture-id122221379)

He was very popular in Italy at the time, too, due to his daughter marrying the King.

I borrowed him as a major supporting character in my HOI2: Darkest Hour Ethiopian AAR (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=9486.0). He first shows up here: https://www.grogheads.com/forums/index.php?msg=245153

QuoteI don't have the faintest idea what happened to him after Montenegro was overrun; but if someone told me he retreated to one of the mountains where he threw boulder-artillery at the Hungarians until they had to call in a wizard to summon a comet down onto him, after which his ghost wrestled a hibernating dragon into submission and he rode it around zorching the Austrian army until the end of the war, I WOULD TOTALLY BE PREPARED TO BELIEVE THAT!  8) He was one of those memetic badasses like Davy Crockett; except very much more politically ambitious.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 12, 2023, 10:35:55 AM
Any King that grills and chills for his peasants is alright by me. Right-On Nick!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 12, 2023, 07:46:05 PM
Me too. Never heard of him...not that I am an expert in Montenegrin history.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 12, 2023, 08:53:11 PM
a bit about Ukraine training in Germany, seems to be from last winter.

https://threadreaderapp-com.translate.goog/thread/1679198812483514396.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 12, 2023, 09:27:39 PM
Some updates from Business Basics, 11 hours ago.

The big news is that Wagner got within an ace of acquiring tactical nukes, down to backsize level, at Voronezh-45. But he absolutely positively for sure didn't get any such things and then dissolve his group to scatter to the four winds, nope!

 :HideEyes:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 12, 2023, 09:51:52 PM
There were doubts that "backpack" nuclear weapons were there and even more that they would be in working order.  There were more doubts that Wagner had anyone present that could assemble and make any weapon operational.
From Reuters:  https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/exclusive-wagner-fighters-neared-russian-nuclear-base-during-revolt/ar-AA1dGu5s?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=d4887fcd34cf46e0905b7603775239fb&ei=94
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 13, 2023, 07:27:14 AM
That's a relief!

I was just thinking, one of George Clooney's best films was Peacemaker, a Tom Clancy-ish story about the effort to stop someone (kind of a sympathetic antagonist all things considered) planning to build and detonate a backpack nuke, in New York City iirc.

Excellent score from fairly early in Hans Zimmer's career, too!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 13, 2023, 08:35:25 AM
^OMFG it is one of my fears coming true. I feel like it's only a matter of time and where the nuke will be used.  :doh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 13, 2023, 11:35:36 AM
That's the real, Sum of All Fears isn't it? What's scarier than Putin with nukes? Prigo with nukes.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 13, 2023, 12:10:40 PM
^Or some schmuck with a nuclear backpack running through the streets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 13, 2023, 12:44:55 PM
Given the state of leadership in Russia, I wouldn't be surprised if several backpacks are missing and that several oligarchs have them as insurance against falling out of windows.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 13, 2023, 01:38:56 PM
 :undecided:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 13, 2023, 02:27:04 PM
calm down Gus, I'm sure NYC is covered in radiological sensors and alarms.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 13, 2023, 02:45:20 PM
Would those sensors/alarms give enough time to save people?

I'm an hour away from NYC anyway and 10 minutes from West Point. Who knows what kind of sensors they have or if they would be any more helpful.

We were laid low and crippled by heavy thunderstorms three days ago. I shudder at the thought of a loose nuke.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 13, 2023, 02:46:34 PM
I think traffic's so bad, it'd take 3-4 days to get downtown to detonate a nuke. Then the guy'd probably get robbed before he could set the bomb down good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 13, 2023, 02:49:15 PM
Honestly more worried that a nuke will go off in eastern Europe somewhere. The math of it seems realistic.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on July 13, 2023, 03:54:01 PM
And I'm 2.5 hours away from NYC.  If something terrible happened there maybe I wouldn't die on the day of, but certainly I would die from sickness weeks or days later. 

I also heard that the coast guard shutdown most of the east coast yesterday searching for something.  Can't seem to find any non-prepper (i.e. mainstream) news sources to confirm. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 13, 2023, 04:02:49 PM
^wut
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on July 13, 2023, 04:21:08 PM
Well let's see, I've got the Pantex complex just 80 miles north of me. That's the place the handle nuke maintenance of some sort if you didn't know.  Also, Bell has an Osprey assembly plant there. Then I have Cannon AFB about 70 miles west of me.  Home to Special Operations aircraft of all sorts.  Then about 200 miles south I have Dyess AFB where B-1 bombers are based.  That just leaves East and it's just about 120 miles to Shepard AFB.  Nothing like being in the middle of all that.   :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 13, 2023, 05:10:07 PM
lets see... within a 100 miles of me Ive got Homestead AFB, Cape Kennedy, Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Port Everglades, Port of Miami, Pratt & Whitney, Sikorsky, and just tons of other shit.  all of it compressed withing 20 miles of the coast.  fuck it, aint gonna worry about it.
fuck russia!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 13, 2023, 06:52:02 PM
very clean hit

https://twitter.com/i/status/1679627358653894658
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 13, 2023, 07:01:02 PM
russian mortar training....   :Loser:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1679598989019103232
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 13, 2023, 07:22:47 PM
I'm honestly a little surprised someone hasn't composited a photo of a Russian nuclear backpack onto a Ghostbuster with a quip about an unlicensed nuclear accelerator. The mass and size seem about right...?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 13, 2023, 10:00:13 PM
An economic analysis of Putin's negotiation to allow grain shipments out, for access of its biggest (only?) agricultural banks system to the SWIFT banking system -- among a few other things, like a pipeline opened and agricultural equipment imports.


Plus some updates to the coupy plots in Russia as of today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 13, 2023, 11:16:53 PM
Just to be clear, the impacts from detonating one isolated warhead would have horrific human costs, but the fatality rate outside a couple mile radius would be modest.  Cancer rates would soar for the next 30 years, but most of the nuclear destruction we learned about 40 or 50 years ago was based on MIRV warheads sprinkling nuclear fireballs in a broad radius around a central target.

I think the Eastern European scenario is more likely.  Last I heard, if somebody decides to detonate a nuke in New York City, it'll likely be done via a container ship pulling into port.  I'm sure that container security has improved in the last 20 years, but I'm sure it's not yet perfect.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 13, 2023, 11:33:15 PM
aint sayin it aint gonna happen but it hasnt happened yet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on July 14, 2023, 07:18:06 AM
Quote from: Gusington on July 13, 2023, 04:02:49 PM^wut

Just echoing your fear about the unthinkable happening.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 14, 2023, 08:11:21 AM
 :magnify:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1679753460948910082
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 08:21:50 AM
W8 your post on Coast Guard activity off the US east coast is the only mention I have seen of that...thankfully.

After reading through the last three pages I also think the most likely nuclear disaster to happen would be one backpack sized weapon used in some kind of terror attack in eastern Europe.

Think of the Chechen terror attacks in Moscow, but worse if possible.

I guess it's always possible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 14, 2023, 09:31:30 AM
Say, speaking of fighting near the Voronezh 45 nuclear weapons storage site.... supposedly, there's fighting going on near the Voronezh 45 nuclear weapons storage site!

I know nothing about the Daily Express US, but they're a little sceptical of the source, an anti-Putin pro-Ukrainian site.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/key-russian-city-under-attack-explosions-near-nuclear-facility-targeted-by-wagner/ar-AA1dQWps?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=99ff60a3d3584216925194a1ee76d85f&ei=40
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 14, 2023, 09:51:03 AM
 :shocked:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1679618495800115203
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 14, 2023, 09:54:18 AM
takes a licking....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1679844430939930626
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on July 14, 2023, 10:05:04 AM
Quote from: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 08:21:50 AMW8 your post on Coast Guard activity off the US east coast is the only mention I have seen of that...thankfully.

...

Yup, can't find anything either on this.  Not sure what to think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on July 14, 2023, 10:26:29 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 13, 2023, 11:16:53 PMJust to be clear, the impacts from detonating one isolated warhead would have horrific human costs, but the fatality rate outside a couple mile radius would be modest.  Cancer rates would soar for the next 30 years, but most of the nuclear destruction we learned about 40 or 50 years ago was based on MIRV warheads sprinkling nuclear fireballs in a broad radius around a central target.

I think the Eastern European scenario is more likely.  Last I heard, if somebody decides to detonate a nuke in New York City, it'll likely be done via a container ship pulling into port.  I'm sure that container security has improved in the last 20 years, but I'm sure it's not yet perfect.

If people on the board are interested, I can run a couple of simulations in Matrix Games' "Nuclear War Simulator" and post the results here.  Let me know what scenarios you are interested in.  I think probably the worst case would be a 1 kT W54 at 40' in the air, but I'm willing to run others.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 11:00:34 AM
^Would that include non-state actors like lunatics and nutjobs and Chechens?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 14, 2023, 11:15:49 AM
Sure, he's thinking a backpack weapon, where someone managed to get a few floors up and jumped off a roof or whatever.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on July 14, 2023, 11:27:15 AM
Quote from: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 11:00:34 AM^Would that include non-state actors like lunatics and nutjobs and Chechens?
The 1 kT W54 is the largest of the backpack nuclear weapons (as far as I know), and the 40' height is based on what an airburst using the weapon on a Davy Crockett missile, so I assume that is the optimal airburst height, although it would be easy enough to change the height.   Let me know if you want me to run the simulation(s) and what warhead/height/location you want them run at. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 11:27:54 AM
I do, and I don't  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 14, 2023, 11:30:16 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 14, 2023, 09:54:18 AMtakes a licking....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1679844430939930626

Wait, I saw a movie on HBO once that said the Bradley sucks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on July 14, 2023, 11:34:34 AM
Quote from: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 11:27:54 AMI do, and I don't  :HideEyes:

The "Nuclear War Simulator" is a very sobering program.  It isn't particularly fun to use, but it gives data that is important to think about. I'll do a run using the numbers I suggested, but use a town no one has ever heard of: Waldo, Florida.  That might make it a little less personal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 11:36:04 AM
^Right next door to Star. Potentially.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on July 14, 2023, 12:18:09 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 11:36:04 AM^Right next door to Star. Potentially.
Nah, it's between Gainesville and Orange Park.  A million miles from Star   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 12:20:51 PM
I was kidding.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 14, 2023, 12:26:29 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 12:20:51 PMI was kidding.

When?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 14, 2023, 12:29:56 PM
Did someone ask about an explosion at a Russian-controlled nuclear power plant?

How about one in the Urals?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/novouralsk-nuclear-plant-blast-what-we-know-as-russians-rushed-to-hospital/ar-AA1dRZBa?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=3f7bd0891d5649d09bb77c2271615da6&ei=39

Don't worry, this is only Russian competence, nothing to do with the war. Probably.

.......I'll be posting a new video to the feel good thread momentarily, just in case.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 12:35:04 PM
About the close to Star thang.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 14, 2023, 01:03:44 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 12:35:04 PMAbout the close to Star thang.

Which star are you close to? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 01:11:35 PM
None unfortunately :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 14, 2023, 01:20:52 PM
 :kiss:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 14, 2023, 02:32:55 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 14, 2023, 11:15:49 AMSure, he's thinking a backpack weapon, where someone managed to get a few floors up and jumped off a roof or whatever.

That's the immediate scenario we were talking about as specifically relates to Wagner getting their hands on nukes.  But if a non-state actor can get their hands on a nuke, my bet is that a safer/more effective deployment strategy would be to employ a larger warhead in a freight container on a ship docked at the Port of NY & NJ.  Only half the fireball is over water, but I think there's lower risk of detection and good feasibility of getting a larger warhead close to an urban center.

I studied this stuff in a fair amount of detail back in the years right after 9/11, so my info on countermeasures to this strategy is badly out of date.  It's all pretty grim stuff.

Quote from: Tripoli on July 14, 2023, 11:34:34 AM
Quote from: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 11:27:54 AMI do, and I don't  :HideEyes:
I'll do a run using the numbers I suggested, but use a town no one has ever heard of: Waldo, Florida.  That might make it a little less personal.

Tripoli, admit it.  You just chose this town so somebody would have ask, "Where's Waldo?"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 14, 2023, 02:43:09 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 11:00:34 AM^Would that include non-state actors like lunatics and nutjobs and Chechens?

shhhhhh, don't mention the Chechens.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 14, 2023, 02:50:16 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 14, 2023, 02:32:55 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 14, 2023, 11:15:49 AMSure, he's thinking a backpack weapon, where someone managed to get a few floors up and jumped off a roof or whatever.

That's the immediate scenario we were talking about as specifically relates to Wagner getting their hands on nukes.  But if a non-state actor can get their hands on a nuke, my bet is that a safer/more effective deployment strategy would be to employ a larger warhead in a freight container on a ship docked at the Port of NY & NJ.  Only half the fireball is over water, but I think there's lower risk of detection and good feasibility of getting a larger warhead close to an urban center.

I studied this stuff in a fair amount of detail back in the years right after 9/11, so my info on countermeasures to this strategy is badly out of date.  It's all pretty grim stuff.

Quote from: Tripoli on July 14, 2023, 11:34:34 AM
Quote from: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 11:27:54 AMI do, and I don't  :HideEyes:
I'll do a run using the numbers I suggested, but use a town no one has ever heard of: Waldo, Florida.  That might make it a little less personal.

Tripoli, admit it.  You just chose this town so somebody would have ask, "Where's Waldo?"

You guys are so inward looking. I genuinely think the risk is in Europe, where the crazies have centuries of being pissed off at each other to grind it into a justification to nuke their own continent.
At the moment I think they hate each other more than they do those bastards across the pond.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 03:03:27 PM
^I said 'eastern Europe' above.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 14, 2023, 03:19:38 PM
Quote from: Windigo on July 14, 2023, 02:50:16 PMYou guys are so inward looking. I genuinely think the risk is in Europe, where the crazies have centuries of being pissed off at each other to grind it into a justification to nuke their own continent.
At the moment I think they hate each other more than they do those bastards across the pond.


Currently the most discussed and talked about target of a nuclear weapon by the Russians who like to fantasize or threaten such things is London. 

The super nationalists truly believe that the US is just a puppet of an Anglo/Jewish cabal that operates out of there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 14, 2023, 04:12:03 PM
 :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 14, 2023, 04:27:32 PM
we even get decoder rings and shit  :ninjameditate:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 14, 2023, 05:35:08 PM
And Space Lasers. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 14, 2023, 06:18:29 PM
Sir Andrew beat me to the space lasers.

Gus beat me to the Jewish Missile.

Star beat me to the Jewish Ninjas. (Perhaps relatedly, I'll be going to see MI:7 tomorrow night, and I'm looking forward to hearing new variations on the Mossad's unofficial theme and plot music!)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 14, 2023, 09:07:10 PM
Question. Do the Nuclear Backpacks come in different colors or are they all just black? Asking for a friend.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 14, 2023, 09:29:52 PM
If they came in pink, one would have something to wear to the Barbenheimer premier.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 15, 2023, 06:41:04 AM
Quote from: Windigo on July 14, 2023, 02:50:16 PMI genuinely think the risk is in Europe, where the crazies have centuries of being pissed off at each other to grind it into a justification to nuke their own continent.

I wish you all would stop spreading these unfortunate stereotypes around this fine forum. So what my Danish friend calls Scania "the occupied territory", you have to remember it happened just a while ago, in early March.

Early March, 1658, to be precise. Understandably still a festering wound, just give a bit more time to heal. Also, I am quite sure Danes don't have nukes, so all good in that front as well  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 15, 2023, 08:16:32 AM
An assessment of the threat of Wagner acquiring tactical nuclear weapons from our friends at the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.  https://thebulletin.org/2023/06/what-would-happen-if-a-military-group-took-over-russias-nuclear-arsenal/
QuoteIf a mercenary group were able to seize power and gain control over some of Russian nuclear weapons, "the world [would] find itself in uncharted territory," Alexander Vershbow, a former NATO deputy secretary general and US ambassador to Russia, told the Bulletin. "It is doubtful that the ousted Putin regime would be able to withhold access to nuclear codes for very long, if at all."

Other experts shared this concern. "Any civil instability within a nuclear state raises fears over command and control of its nuclear weapons," Mariana Budjeryn, a senior research associate with the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University, told the Bulletin.

However,(emphases in bold are my doing): 
QuoteAn attacking force, especially a group as heavily armed as the Wagner Group, might be able to take possession of some warheads at such a facility. But that would not mean the attackers could quickly arm or use those warheads, all experts agreed.

For one thing, a group seizing power would not necessarily gain physical control of complete nuclear weapons. "Most, if not all, stored Russian tactical nuclear warheads are not fully assembled," Pifer said. Matej Rafael Risko, a research fellow at the Institute of International Studies in Prague, commented on Twitter that warheads for the OTR-21 Tochka, a Soviet-era mobile short-range ballistic missile launch system now being replaced by the somewhat longer-range Iskander missile system, "are stored in an incomplete assembly, the so-called readiness stage."
"This means that the neutron tubes are not installed, the MED electro-detonators are not connected, and the electrical system is not connected to power sources," Risko added.

Even if rebels gained control of all the physical components of a nuclear weapon and assembled it, they could not necessarily use it. For a nuclear warhead to be used, it would have to go through a complex set of deployment procedures; among other things, a rogue group would need to mate a warhead with the right delivery system. In a blog post, Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project, explained that Russian nuclear weapons are stored separately from their delivery vehicles. He estimates that Russia has not only 12 large national-level storage sites but also about 35 base-level storage facilities. In some cases, a base-level storage facility can contain weapons that are assigned to delivery systems collocated at that same base. But in any case, mating a nuclear warhead to its delivery system is a task of extreme complexity, which an invading military group would most likely not be able to accomplish without the active—or forced—cooperation of 12 GUMO personnel.
Then there is the question of activation codes.

Russian non-strategic nuclear warheads are locked via permissive action links (also known as "PALs") that require codes to unlock. (Russian strategic nuclear weapons use other ways to prevent unauthorized and unintended use.) PAL codes were developed in the 1960s to guard against unauthorized use of a non-strategic nuclear weapon. "But PAL locks are like safe locks—with enough effort they could be broken," Budjeryn explains. Moreover, experts are uncertain whether PAL codes are released by the central command or kept on base, as in the United States—a possibly highly consequential detail. "It would be very poor security indeed if PALs were just kept on base," Budjeryn told me. "At least part of the code must be with the national command authority that would release them when they authorize the use."

So, what interest would a military group like Wagner have in seizing a tactical nuclear weapon, if it couldn't be used? "The mutineers could have used the captured weapons as political leverage in the short term," said Budjeryn. Then, she added, "with sufficient expertise and time, PALs could potentially be hacked."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 15, 2023, 08:49:36 AM
anyway, back to the war thats actually happening.
link works, covers some trench clearing.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1680177497332240386
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 15, 2023, 09:13:18 AM
Or...A rouge group like Wagner could sell the nukes on the Black-market for anything they want. The very plot from the original, "Thunderball".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 15, 2023, 09:32:16 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1680166736702611456
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 15, 2023, 11:52:29 AM
Yeah, I'd meant to mention that the likelihood of using a nuclear weapon in Europe was a lot more likely.  Just got carried away with my "Where's Waldo?" jibe at Tripoli and forgot to include the rest of the world...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 15, 2023, 12:51:43 PM
and there it is

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1Flb0dacAEdRoO?format=jpg&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1FiMGyakAAkuUf?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 15, 2023, 12:55:36 PM
Thanks for that above post Uberhaus. Takes my panic down a notch or two.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 15, 2023, 01:29:09 PM
don't know why your worried.  we all know a hamster/goldfish will be involved with your demise.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 15, 2023, 01:33:35 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on July 15, 2023, 06:41:04 AMI wish you all would stop spreading these unfortunate stereotypes around this fine forum.
 

So you're saying Gus doesn't plot world domination from a dreidel shaped lair and torture victims with a magen while eating challah?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 15, 2023, 01:40:04 PM
I mean....... thats what I do on the weekends.  :cool:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 15, 2023, 01:43:01 PM
and Im still gonna slice a bitch with my lightsabre Andrew.

(https://media3.giphy.com/media/QtjNbzT6Zi5Cm2oyV2/giphy-downsized-large.gif?cid=6c09b952rhl36yxt44f8cqe68mjahohspk8zbnfoe7qruv1c&ep=v1_internal_gif_by_id&rid=giphy-downsized-large.gif&ct=g)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 15, 2023, 02:03:38 PM
Hamsters and goldfish have been off limits to me for a long time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 15, 2023, 02:45:36 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/2zioxl.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on July 15, 2023, 03:43:07 PM
FWIW, Here is what "Nuclear War Simulator" says about a 1kT nuclear airburst at 9 meters over Tuscaloosa, AL:

First, the overpressure collapsed all buildings, including reinforced concrete 1 km from the blast center.  Everyone inside that circle died from buildings falling on them. (each of the people in the image were in differnt types of cover, from now cover to the sub-basement of a reinforced concrete building.  Inside of 1 km, it didn't matter.)  (https://i.imgur.com/h4WDfJz.jpg).  Of note, the 9 meters was not the optimal height for the detonation.  According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions#/media/File:Blastcurves_psi.svg, it was 220 meters..

However, the blast and radiation affects decreased very rapidly outside of 1.6 km. Aside from some light injuries from flying glass, those outside of 1.6 km seemed to have no major effects, including exposed to the projected fallout.  I may have done something wrong with the program, so I may try running it again just to see if I get the same results.


 (https://i.imgur.com/axgV8Aq.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 15, 2023, 04:15:12 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on July 15, 2023, 03:43:07 PMFWIW, Here is what "Nuclear War Simulator" says about a 1kT nuclear airburst at 9 meters over Tuscaloosa, AL:

And yet Saban and the Crimson Turds still manage another championship.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 15, 2023, 04:17:34 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 15, 2023, 12:55:36 PMThanks for that above post Uberhaus. Takes my panic down a notch or two.
Just holding up the Anglo end of the cabal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 15, 2023, 05:05:11 PM
 :Dreamer: hahaha
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 16, 2023, 01:48:08 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1FWsEpWIAM6VIf?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on July 16, 2023, 09:46:53 AM
^ What's the story there?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 16, 2023, 10:45:56 AM
no idea, just thought it was a good photo.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 16, 2023, 05:20:20 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1LB-7OXoAEEL4L?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 16, 2023, 09:11:11 PM
seems things are afoot on the Kerch bridge tonight.   :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 16, 2023, 10:19:16 PM
Does anybody know how much freight to Crimea travels daily via the Kerch auto bridge, the Kerch railroad bridge, or via sea lanes over the Sea of Azov?  If I had to guess, I'd assume that ferry traffic over the Sea of Azov is the primary mover of freight these days, but that's only a guess.

That's also one reason why a Ukrainian counteroffensive towards Melitupol is meaningful.  A land corridor to the Sea of Azov can also create a flight corridor to the Sea of Azov, which would leave the ferries extremely vulnerable.  I don't believe that land-based Storm Shadows have the range to reach the Kerch Bridge from non-Crimean Ukraine, but hitting the ferries would be a lot easier, I think.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 17, 2023, 03:11:46 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 16, 2023, 09:11:11 PMseems things are afoot on the Kerch bridge tonight.   :evil:

Seems some damage done for real. UAF of course knows nothing about this. Well Crimea river  :pirate:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1680822995973988353
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: undercovergeek on July 17, 2023, 03:51:25 AM
Over here on the bbc 'Russia blames Ukraine for bridge attack'

Blames?

Germany blames allies for attack on Normandy?

Can someone help me with the rhetoric here - why are Russia pointing the finger and saying it was them!! About the Ukrainians

You're at war with another nation a war you started and you're pointing at your enemy saying 'they blew our shit up' who else does the worlds press think it was and what do you want everyone to do about it?

Have sympathy?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 17, 2023, 06:46:48 AM
Their propaganda is mainly for internal consumption.

We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 17, 2023, 07:27:42 AM
Technically, the rails had been repaired enough to run a train on it, but not enough to run a cargo train on it.  :Loser:

One lane traffic on the road-side of the bridge since the Whatever attacked it the first time. This lane was strong enough to run actual military convoys, but being only one lane there were obvious timing and size restrictions (and still probably weight restrictions, too, especially with multiple vehicles trying to cross.)

The flow was relatively small enough that the Russians couldn't dare to draw Ukraine's (careful!) offensive(s) into prepared fallback lines, but instead had to push up their reserves to try to preserve the front line of defense: so far as Ukraine reaches even the second line of defense across the land-bridge, they've rendered supply for the Russians in Crimea increasingly impossible for practical purposes, by interdicting the last rail lines and feasible roads into the area.

Relatedly, I saw some footage yesterday of at least two convoys of Russian infantry heading north out of the area, while the getting was good. The convoys themselves were pretty pitiful by anything more than 3rd world standards: a bunch of civilian cargo trucks and old VW-looking vans, plus some beat-up SUVs, the best things being a few city busses sprinkled in (probably for the officers). Of course, anything is better than nothing, but it was a harsh reminder of just how badly the Russians have lost their logistical transport. Nothing bigger than machine-guns, some mortars, and maybe shoulder-mounted g-t-a missile defenses could have been carried.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 17, 2023, 07:37:15 AM
News updates from Suchimimus...


...Davidov...


...and Enforcer Matt.


(Note: despite his thumbnail photo, Matt doesn't think any of the missiles got through to the ships this time.)
The Enforcer has the footage I saw of Russian very-very-light-infantry convoys withdrawing from the area.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 17, 2023, 10:26:01 AM
I think it's also significant the reports I hear of numerous Russian generals being dismissed in the past week. It started with Popov but has spread to about, a dozen or more? This could be the first signs of a real Russian military crack-up, or a Putin crack-up. Or both. Anybody got any solid info on this?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 17, 2023, 01:10:07 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 17, 2023, 10:26:01 AMI think it's also significant the reports I hear of numerous Russian generals being dismissed in the past week. It started with Popov but has spread to about, a dozen or more? This could be the first signs of a real Russian military crack-up, or a Putin crack-up. Or both. Anybody got any solid info on this?

What's happening is exactly what my friend predicted and I alluded to earlier. 

It's a full on purge and it seems right now that Shoigu came out on top.  Putin is consolidating power around himself and Shoigu and the "yes men" who don't deliver bad news or complain, especially about subjects like poor leadership. 

On the ground the issue has become a problem because the troops in the south are at this point literally starving and suffering horrific levels of dehydration.   This has not gone unnoticed by the UAF, hence the heavy targeting of railheads, supply depots and today, Kerch. 

Local officers of mid and flag rank have been trying to point this out and tell the Russian MOD that they're nearing critical mass of low morale and illness, but when they complain, they're getting the boot.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 17, 2023, 02:17:15 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 17, 2023, 01:10:07 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 17, 2023, 10:26:01 AMI think it's also significant the reports I hear of numerous Russian generals being dismissed in the past week. It started with Popov but has spread to about, a dozen or more? This could be the first signs of a real Russian military crack-up, or a Putin crack-up. Or both. Anybody got any solid info on this?

What's happening is exactly what my friend predicted and I alluded to earlier. 

It's a full on purge and it seems right now that Shoigu came out on top.  Putin is consolidating power around himself and Shoigu and the "yes men" who don't deliver bad news or complain, especially about subjects like poor leadership. 

On the ground the issue has become a problem because the troops in the south are at this point literally starving and suffering horrific levels of dehydration.   This has not gone unnoticed by the UAF, hence the heavy targeting of railheads, supply depots and today, Kerch. 

Local officers of mid and flag rank have been trying to point this out and tell the Russian MOD that they're nearing critical mass of low morale and illness, but when they complain, they're getting the boot.

Low morale, low readiness and capacity.... just a matter of time. The UAF seem to be systematically degrading the capability of the russkies to fight in any sustained manner. Not a big sexy dramatic blitzkrieg, but it will accomplish the same.

Putin it seems, will have his 'Adolf - bunker moment' when the UAF take back the whole Crimea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 17, 2023, 02:42:44 PM
Russia claims the Kerch bridge was hit by two surface drone boats. The bridge has dropped again, enough to halt practically all Russian logistics across it (what remained) -- although mail trucks can still get through.


The U24 account tacitly claims one of their underwater drones did it.


Business Basics kicks off their update with a wonderful video of Ukrainians chanting in English (sort of), "Kerch Bridge on fire! -- your defense is terrified, Kerch Bridge on fire!"


Not really much new news there yet, and I can't be sure that opener wasn't repurposed from an earlier strike or modified from a soccer match celebration (everyone has seen the pub cheering meme by now, I suppose).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 17, 2023, 02:46:14 PM
Everyone knows that killing the messengers always makes the root problems go away.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2023, 02:55:33 PM
 :ROFL:

and yes, it seems to be a real thing.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1Qltr8WAAEGs2_?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 17, 2023, 03:04:07 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 17, 2023, 02:46:14 PMEveryone knows that killing the messengers always makes the root problems go away.

Seems to be what Putin and Shoigu hope for. 

Putin's clearly becoming more paranoid about messengers as Prighozhin had set himself up as the bearer of hard truths and tough solutions. 

They've now fallen into the trap of calling such talk as defeatism bordering on mutiny.

You can see it at work in the Russian media as they're following marching orders from the top to echo the talking points.

The Ukrainians for their part are taking advantage of it.  Their shift in tactics mirrors their playbook that brought them success in Kherson.  Put the Russian army tucked in their fortifications into a state of siege and push them to the breaking point. 

Lets see if it ends up working as well as it did without the bottleneck of the river working for them. 

The Russian army's woeful logistics and overreliance on rail is going to have to be the UAF's new Dniper.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2023, 03:13:44 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1QAEEWX0AE3y5M?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1QAFjqWcAEAfqi?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1PsZhnWIAEmSE5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2023, 03:18:38 PM
nice clean break on both lanes.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1QLBPAXsAUeXeT?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2023, 03:22:18 PM
the internet works quick with some things......

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1OWeJqXwAA5O_t?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 17, 2023, 03:35:00 PM
 :RockOn:  :Dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2023, 11:35:18 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1QwTg3XoAcMLZ7?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 18, 2023, 10:28:51 AM
Andrew, your info has been pretty high-grade in the past, and I sure hope it's correct again.  A degradation in Russian troop readiness is a good thing, but it's always hard to quantify, even for the experts. 

The Russians seemed to spend most of WW2 fighting with low troop readiness, but they did seem to have some very competent commanders at the top.  Perhaps that is the difference here?

It'd be really nice to see this stalemate broken SOMEWHERE.  How many more months do we have before the Fall rains start?

A plumber 50 years ago told my mom, "Ma'am, there's only three things you got to know to be a plumber:  Hot water on the left, cold water on the right, and shit don't flow uphill."

I often think of that "shit don't flow uphill" as a metaphor for management problems--hardly limited to authoritarian governments.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2023, 02:06:31 PM
QuoteThe Russians seemed to spend most of WW2 fighting with low troop readiness, but they did seem to have some very competent commanders at the top.  Perhaps that is the difference here?

not having US lend lease, not having a 6 million man army and not having the industrial capacity to make and replace things is the problem.  early war soviet commanders pretty much all sucked.  the late war commanders had almost all they could want for troops and kit.  for the final assault on Berlin they had over 40,000 artillery tubes to use.  they have maybe at most 2000 now for the whole front line.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2023, 02:27:51 PM
 :shocked:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1681281398957547525
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 18, 2023, 02:29:57 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 18, 2023, 10:28:51 AMAndrew, your info has been pretty high-grade in the past, and I sure hope it's correct again.  A degradation in Russian troop readiness is a good thing, but it's always hard to quantify, even for the experts. 

Very true, and it's not necessarily universal along the front line. 

The area to watch is Zaporizhzhia.  The main rail line from Mariupol is well within HIMARS range and has largely been unusable, which has caused the Russians in that sector to rely heavily on the Kerch Bridge as their main supply artery.

Part of the Russian supply issue there was of their own making, as their own former General Popov pointed out.  The bridge is still open to civilian traffic, food and water supplies right now in Zaporizhzhia and Crimea are prioritized for Russian tourists, not the army. 

The rail on the bridge is even still being partly used for civilian traffic.  Sadly the attacks on the bridge both failed to destroy the rail, so the primary military road is still open there.  The Russian media though has assured the public that civilian traffic is still fully allowed and encouraged and there will be no closing of Crimea for tourist season, so the army's throat continues to be cut for propaganda purposes. 

In Kharkiv though, the situation for the Russians is much better which is why they've now launched major offensive operations there.  Last summer the main UAF goal was to cut the rail and take Starbolisk, they ran out of momentum and outran their own supply lines making that impossible.  They're paying for it now.  The Russian forces in the north seem to have decent readiness.  Russian media says they have 100k troops and 900 tanks now ready for operation in Kharkiv.  Those numbers are no doubt exaggerated but it's clear they feel they have enough supply to try to reverse UAF successes last summer by making it to the river.

So, I'd call the Russian situation dire, at least in Zaporizhzhia, but not beyond recovery.  They could improve their lot significantly with a few policy changes, but they seem hesitant to do that.  The men in Zaporizhzhia are considered to be supplied "well enough" in their fortifications by the Russian MOD that they're not prioritizing fixing the issues there. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2023, 02:51:35 PM
concerning the southern front and translated from rybar:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1VskhcWABkij9m?format=jpg&name=medium
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 18, 2023, 04:30:01 PM
Andrew, it is interesting how, in authoritarian regimes, tactical and even strategic considerations seem to play a distant second fiddle to personal vanities and political maneuverings of various insiders.  I'm not sure if that's universal, but it seems to rear its head as often in Russian conduct of the Ukrainian War as it did with Nazi Germany (especially once Hitler started losing).

I'm certainly impressed with what I've seen so far, but 10 years after this conflict is over, it'll be interesting to see what experts make of the successes and failings of the Ukrainian high command and the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Were the failures in Kharkiv (if you can call them that?) due to lack of adequate supplies beforehand, or simply advancing so far ahead of their logistics that they lost momentum after the hard work of a breakout.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 18, 2023, 04:31:12 PM
I suspect that northern push by the russkies is not going to end well at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on July 18, 2023, 04:41:41 PM
Getting "Wacht am Rhein" vibes here
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 18, 2023, 04:43:37 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 18, 2023, 04:30:01 PMWere the failures in Kharkiv (if you can call them that?) due to lack of adequate supplies beforehand, or simply advancing so far ahead of their logistics that they lost momentum after the hard work of a breakout.

Yeah, I wouldn't call them failures. 

They were short on supply to begin with, and lacked mobile reserves of exactly the kind they begged the west to help them build in months afterwards. 

When they achieved the breakout, the Russians general withdrawal from all of Kharkiv left large swaths of territory the UAF needed to secure, which slowed them down and made them divert resources from the breakthrough. 

They were also tied up securing large numbers of prisoners and abandoned equipment.  It was a classic case of the enemy retreating faster than the attacker was able to sustainably advance. 

Had they had a well supplied mobile reserve similar to the one they've been largely holding back now, they would've been employed after the breakout at Lyman and likely could've flanked the heights at Svatove, leaving the Russian position in the far north totally untenable. 

As it was by the time they reached those natural obstacles last year, they were strung out, exhausted, undersupplied and frankly flush with victory and ready for a rest.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2023, 06:07:19 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1V5OLcWcAArrZe?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2023, 08:48:48 PM
they're here

https://twitter.com/i/status/1681427379678478337
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 19, 2023, 08:34:19 AM
Re the Crimean tourist season: that might not be only propaganda. The Russians could also be hoping the tourists will volunteer to be indirect human shields.

If the Ukrainians refuse to kill tourists, that slows down their advance at least.

If the Ukrainians accidentally kill tourists, propaganda coup.

If the Ukrainians intentionally kill tourists, HUGE propaganda and probably diplomatic coup.


....as usual, it's a good thing I'm not a supervillain.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 19, 2023, 08:48:55 AM
Maybe.  For every tourist killed as a meat shield, my bet is that 10 or 20 or 50 escape and return to the rodina to talk about how their army got its butt kicked and they had to flee for their life.

Of course, propaganda isn't just designed to fool people.  It's also designed to fill an info vacuum, so that anybody who starts disputing the propaganda can be identified and suppressed/arrested before they get too vocal or start drawing like-minded folks to their side.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 19, 2023, 08:58:43 AM
The Ukrainian government made an announcement that tourists were unsafe in the war zone and they were traveling on roadways that are military targets.   They advised all Russian civilians not to go into a war zone to reach a vacation spot. 

Humorously, the Russian media responded by suggesting tourists travel not only by Kerch, but by the heavily shelled and attacked Mariupol to Melitopol road.  They reiterated the area was safe, secure and that the newly annexed territories were open for business. 

Very surreal.  The UAF has shown they have no compunction about attacking those arteries even with civilian traffic.  They issued a fair warning.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on July 19, 2023, 09:10:48 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 19, 2023, 08:58:43 AMThe Ukrainian government made an announcement that tourists were unsafe in the war zone and they were traveling on roadways that are military targets.   They advised all Russian civilians not to go into a war zone to reach a vacation spot. 

Humorously, the Russian media responded by suggesting tourists travel not only by Kerch, but by the heavily shelled and attacked Mariupol to Melitopol road.  They reiterated the area was safe, secure and that the newly annexed territories were open for business. 

Very surreal.  The UAF has shown they have no compunction about attacking those arteries even with civilian traffic.  They issued a fair warning.

Especially since the Russians don't hesitate to strike Ukranian civilians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 19, 2023, 09:23:46 AM
Watching the Russian government these days is watching Keystone Kops armed with nukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 19, 2023, 12:03:34 PM
With randomly mal/dis-functioning nukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 19, 2023, 04:55:26 PM
Well, after pulling out of the grain deal a couple of days ago, the Russians doubled down an hour ago and declared a full military blockade of Ukraine. 

The Russian MOD now says any ships going to Ukraine are considered to be carrying military cargo and are combatants regardless of flag. 

They have also declared the entire "northern" Black Sea unsafe for any non Russian shipping at all without specifying what that exactly means.

Going to be interesting to see how this move plays out.  I doubt this is going over very well in Ankara even with them pulling out of the protection deal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 19, 2023, 05:22:39 PM
I wonder if this is an area where NATO (or some subset of NATO countries) might up the ante by providing military escorts for those ships? 

I can't imagine any country (e.g., Poland) committing its aircraft to escorting Ukrainian grain ships across the Black Sea unilaterally.  And--whether it's a good idea or a horrible idea--I can't imagine any multilateral arrangement happening without US support.

The US has consistently been very risk-averse in these areas (when we show up, it's a day late and a dollar short), for fear of provoking the Nuclear Cocaine Bear. 

I'd be surprised if much substantive comes of this, aside from increasing global famine and perhaps an easing of Russian tolerance on the part of those countries (mostly African, I think) who will be most directly impacted by the rising cost of grain. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 19, 2023, 05:25:27 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 19, 2023, 05:22:39 PMI wonder if this is an area where NATO (or some subset of NATO countries) might up the ante by providing military escorts for those ships? 

I can't imagine any country (e.g., Poland) committing its aircraft to escorting Ukrainian grain ships across the Black Sea unilaterally.  And--whether it's a good idea or a horrible idea--I can't imagine any multilateral arrangement happening without US support.

The US has consistently been very risk-averse in these areas (when we show up, it's a day late and a dollar short), for fear of provoking the Nuclear Cocaine Bear. 

I'd be surprised if much substantive comes of this, aside from increasing global famine and perhaps an easing of Russian tolerance on the part of those countries (mostly African, I think) who will be most directly impacted by the rising cost of grain. 

Well, Turkey had just backed off the concept of naval escort, which seems to have given Russia the push it needed to feel it could pull off a full blockade. 

This may change their minds, but too fresh to tell. 

This will be a gigantic impact on African and Middle Eastern food supplies, so there's going to be enormous pressure to have this reversed one way or the other. 

The US may have to take up some of the slack as a major overproducer. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 19, 2023, 06:35:27 PM
I thought that most grain was now shipped out of region buy truck and rail due to this very risk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 19, 2023, 06:41:32 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 19, 2023, 06:35:27 PMI thought that most grain was now shipped out of region buy truck and rail due to this very risk.

It has been.  But that's been the problem, truck and rail transport can't meet the export capacity that's needed to meet demand. 

Ukraine had a roughly 50 million ton backlog of grain shipments sitting spoiling in need of sea transport. 

The Black Sea grain deal was supposed to insure those lines were safely open, but that's at an end now. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 19, 2023, 07:06:55 PM
The UN will take issue with the starvation this will cause, but maybe this is another ploy that the Russians are trying for.  It will also effect Ukraine's income and exporting the grain locally has damaged local relations.  https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrainian-grain-export-ban-extended-5-eu-countries-effort-protect-farmers-interests

Also it is prednisone/anabolic nuclear bear, Lord Owen and Dr. Dyer can't be wrong.  https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300532115/look-at-his-face-what-tack-to-take-if-russian-president-vladimir-putin-is-on-steroids
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 19, 2023, 07:14:11 PM
How many Russian subs operate in the Black Sea?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 19, 2023, 07:26:41 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 19, 2023, 07:14:11 PMHow many Russian subs operate in the Black Sea?

About half a dozen old Kilo class subs.   They'll be primarily enforcing the blockade with their six surviving surface frigates and assorted corvettes and support ships.

The fleet can't be reinforced since Turkey closed the Dardanelles and Bosporus at the start of the war. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 19, 2023, 07:35:31 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 19, 2023, 07:14:11 PMHow many Russian subs operate in the Black Sea?
Four Kilos according to https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/russias-improved-kilo-class-submarine-entering-black-sea/ as of right before the start of hostilities.  Five according to Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet (B-271 joining in July '22). 
They shifted them from Sevastopol in September to the mainland https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/20/russias-black-sea-fleet-relocating-some-of-its-submarines-uk

They've been launching Kalibr missiles at Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 19, 2023, 08:48:40 PM
Welcome to the Diesel Sub class comrade! As expect, we shall be shooting artillery at Ukrainian civ-- er, Nazis!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 19, 2023, 08:50:08 PM
Also, to be fair, if someone asked Putin, "What the hell do you have to be on, to think riding barebacked on the Nuclear Cocaine Bear is a good idea??!", "Steroids" would be a valid and believable answer from him.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 19, 2023, 09:30:18 PM
Reporter: "So, esteemed leader, what specifically would you like our people to know, when they see you bear-riding bareback?"

Putin: "I can take a bear."

Reporter: ".....in a fight. Right?"

Putin: {smiles slightly}

Reporter: "IN A FIGHT, RIGHT?!?"



(I suddenly realized this topic from another thread had comic relevancy here, so...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 20, 2023, 02:03:08 AM
CBC managed to produce something relevant. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-grain-deal-implications-1.6911388
Quote"Some underwriters will look to take advantage with a hefty increase in rates. Others will stop offering cover. The [key] question is whether Russia mines the area which would effectively cease any form of cover being offered," one insurance industry source told Reuters.

Much cheaper and efficient to mine the waters, and as Russia's navy has taken losses, it would require less exposure of naval assets to attack while patrolling/intercepting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 20, 2023, 07:53:58 AM
so we get to field test our underwater mine clearing drones.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 20, 2023, 10:06:41 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/20/bradley-ukraine-war-vehicles/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 21, 2023, 02:52:09 AM
An interesting interview of "Arty Green" again. Runs for a good fifty minutes but does not waste time, kicking off with the question as how he feels about the western commentaries of a slow progress with their counterattack?

He refers to Kherson where they went to a contact, stayed in contact for two months with a strong pressure on RuAF and once they finally broke and retreated, they were not really able to chase them due to extensive minefields, arriving to Dnipro two days after the RuAF had evacuated from western bank. Says it might be so here as well, and while advance rate in kms may well be slow, casualties caused to RuAF are very much according to plan.

Commenting on gaining ground, he mentions a typical field between two trellises is 900 meters, therefore an advance of "1km" here or there means they have been able to move forward one position. In urban surrounds, like Bakhmut, gaining a position would be from a city block to the next one. 

On topic of F-16s and lack of air superiority, and how UAF is expected to successfully counterattack without it and how Western powers themselves never would even attempt attacking without having secured the skies first, he states that at least in some components (does not specify which) UAF has a superiority, he then says RuAF CAS is not that spectacular, lobbying rockets from distance, but does say the helicopters with ATGMs are something they still can't counter properly. UAF is able to protect the air space of their more static frontlines, but protecting and advance is much more difficult.

For the slow drip of arms to Ukraine he feels this is the Western strategy, to boil the Russian frog in a kettle by slowly upping the temperature, so that it does not truly wake up. He feels the West hopes to achieve RuAF leaving Ukraine by a regime change in Russia rather than by success of Ukrainian arms.

Very interesting view as what's Prigozhin's long plan, too, but I have to leave something for you lot to listen to, too. In fact his views on Russian inner power games from 15 to 28 minute marks are quite intriguing. Lots of bulldogs preparing to making their moves under the carpet. 

He does not downplay the opponent and makes an observation that their military complex is finally gearing up in some weapons systems at least, for instance he's not previously seen the amount of Lancet loitering munitions that are there at the moment. He also observes UAF is losing their advantage on drones in general.

I really don't know who this guy is but the few long interviews released by him have always been an interesting listen. To be taken with some salt, of course.


QuoteSummer 2023 UAF counteroffensive July update from top UAF military planner callsign Arty Green. English translation is available by pushing "cc" button, it is mistakenly indicated as "Russian" translation, but it is English.
Original publication July 2nd

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:33 General Zaluzhniy interview to the Washington Post
01:18 Summer campaign assessment
01:24 attrition not kilometers on a map
01:46 Kherson operation parallel scaled up 3 times
03:00 General Teplinskiy
04:50 Million men army needed to hold Azov Sea shore
06:23 Zaluzhniy interview directed at the West
08:32 Moving forward without air support
09:58 Trends leading to the end of the war
10:35 Analysis of the Wagner mutiny
12:35 Boil the frog strategy against Putin
14:15 Different goals of Ukraine and allies
15:19 Real reason for Prigozhin mutiny
16:45 Future Prigozhin ambitions
19:50 Lukashenko - Prigozhin cooperation
26:25 General Teplinskiy role in the current fighting
27:56 Cluster munitions
29:42 Influence Western public opinions on F16
30:14 Russian military industry activity and emerging threats
32:19 Mortar availability improvement
33:32 Vilnius NATO summit battlefield results
34:12 Recent battlefield dynamics
35:31 Modelling the battlefield and danger of too early breakthrough
36:40 Specificity of attrition warfare
37:35 Importance of contact
38:05 Three criterias of success
38:25 Enemy defensive belts
39:52 Kakhovka dam explosion impact
44:18 Main push of summer offensive
46:32 War could end very suddenly
47:55 War ending in 2023
48:52 CIA's William Burns visit to Kyiev
49:53 The opportunities of regime change in Russia
51:04 Nuclear weapons deployed to Belarus
52:30 Recap message to the audience
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 21, 2023, 05:04:17 AM
Gonna have to remember to check this out this afternoon/evening!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 05:59:47 AM
love her  :smitten:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682153227201167362
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 21, 2023, 06:22:21 AM
Amazing, thanks Crossroads!
The parts of the interview I watched with Arty Green were very interesting, especially his suggestion of a Prigozhin-Lukashenko conspiracy, supported by him stating how flawlessly Lukashenko came in and quickly brought consensus.  I'll have to watch the rest of it later, it fills in a lot of blanks.

Arty Green seems to show up in a lot of interviews, and doesn't seem to have been disciplined for talking.  He definitely likes sailing, and he might be a C-level executive in shipping.  If the latter is the case, he will have important connections in Ukraine and maybe even Russia.  He's not hiding his face anymore like last year.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 21, 2023, 06:26:30 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 05:59:47 AMlove her  :smitten:
Isn't Witch the lawyer who came up with the scheme of using unobserved indirect fire with a truck mounted Mk-19 last year?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 21, 2023, 06:33:37 AM
I seem to recall that, too!

In an unrelated article...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-helicopter-crew-say-women-flash-them-as-they-fly-overhead-boosting-their-morale-as-they-fight-russia/ar-AA1dYfUD?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=a4d6ff605b8d4fbaa463008bdb11e629&ei=40

...Business Insider provides some snippets from a far more extensive Sunday Times interview article, which is behind a paywall (though a cheap one).

I feel like DCS may be missing some functionality.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 21, 2023, 06:37:38 AM
An Associated Press analyzing political and other fallout from Russia withdrawing from the Ukrainian grain deal:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/by-pulling-out-of-the-ukrainian-grain-deal-russia-risks-alienating-its-few-remaining-partners/ar-AA1e9hZF?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=27af6700a8974c1d889dd24582eb6fd1&ei=38

Unsurprisingly, Zeihan had something to say about that, too, recently, though I don't have the video handy atm.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 06:55:28 AM
QuoteIsn't Witch the lawyer who came up with the scheme of using unobserved indirect fire with a truck mounted Mk-19 last year?

no idea but I'll go with sure, why not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 07:16:16 AM
every. fucking. treeline.

link works

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682360213582630918
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 21, 2023, 07:45:39 AM
"Hmm...this page doesn't exist. Try searching for something else."  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 07:46:44 AM
works for me as a raw link
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 21, 2023, 08:03:15 AM
Goes to the page missing page when I click it; and when I copy-paste it to my address bar.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 08:22:52 AM
iykyk

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1jVQPTWIAEv8cO?format=png&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 21, 2023, 11:18:56 AM
Wow.  The Russians arrested Girkin.  That's weird, he was the deep pro-Putin, Pro-War, pro-FSB ultra right winger.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on July 21, 2023, 12:20:55 PM
Yeah but he was also very critical of the kremlin mishandling.  A thorn in their side, and they wanted to nip it in the bud before another wagner style rebellion happened.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 21, 2023, 01:25:05 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 21, 2023, 11:18:56 AMWow.  The Russians arrested Girkin.  That's weird, he was the deep pro-Putin, Pro-War, pro-FSB ultra right winger.
Seems the patriotic pro-war movement's stepped a tad to step forward for the comfort of Putin. No opposition allowed anymore, not even war opposition (as in for even more aggressive war).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 21, 2023, 01:27:27 PM
Thought to look if anything new by Lawrence Freedman lately. From fortnight ago: Attrition before breakthrough (https://samf.substack.com/p/attrition-before-breakthrough?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2).

Seems he's from the same page with "Arty Green" I posted earlier today:

QuoteStarve, Stretch, and Strike

The UK's Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radikin, describes Ukraine's approach as 'starve, stretch and strike.' Starve refers to the regular attacks on Russian logistics and command structures, and stretch to the 'multiple axes being probed and feints by Ukraine.' Their aim is to take advantage of the length of the front line, over a thousand kilometres. As each attack requires a response, this can lead to the progressive commitment of Russian reserves. Strike is what we are still waiting for. That will be when the bulk of the twelve fresh and modernised brigades, two thirds of which are still being held back, can be pushed forward. That is why Radikin and others say that the full counteroffensive has yet to start.

This is therefore a staged approach. As the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) put it, the priority is 'to attrit Russian manpower and assets over attempting to conduct massive sweeping mechanized manoeuvres to regain large swathes of territory rapidly.'

The success of Ukraine's strategy depends on Russia's strategy. Russian commanders have opted against a passive defence, waiting for the Ukrainians to find a way through the minefields and then overcoming their extensive fortifications. Instead they have sought to deny Ukrainian forces any gains at all. So when, for example, Ukraine liberates a village, a Russian counter-attack is soon mounted. Even though most of these counter-attacks are not successful, the Russian objective may simply be keep up pressure on Ukraine so that they cannot consolidate any gains and must prepare their own defences.

This makes for some fierce clashes, but it also probably suits Ukraine because it means that Russian forces become more vulnerable as they move out from their concealed and protected positions. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 02:17:31 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on July 21, 2023, 01:25:05 PMNo opposition allowed anymore, not even war opposition (as in for even more aggressive war).

they can't fight or afford a more aggresive war.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 21, 2023, 02:31:54 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on July 21, 2023, 01:27:27 PMThought to look if anything new by Lawrence Freedman lately. From fortnight ago: Attrition before breakthrough (https://samf.substack.com/p/attrition-before-breakthrough?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2).

Seems he's from the same page with "Arty Green" I posted earlier today:

QuoteStarve, Stretch, and Strike

The UK's Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radikin, describes Ukraine's approach as 'starve, stretch and strike.' Starve refers to the regular attacks on Russian logistics and command structures, and stretch to the 'multiple axes being probed and feints by Ukraine.' Their aim is to take advantage of the length of the front line, over a thousand kilometres. As each attack requires a response, this can lead to the progressive commitment of Russian reserves. Strike is what we are still waiting for. That will be when the bulk of the twelve fresh and modernised brigades, two thirds of which are still being held back, can be pushed forward. That is why Radikin and others say that the full counteroffensive has yet to start.

This is therefore a staged approach. As the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) put it, the priority is 'to attrit Russian manpower and assets over attempting to conduct massive sweeping mechanized manoeuvres to regain large swathes of territory rapidly.'

The success of Ukraine's strategy depends on Russia's strategy. Russian commanders have opted against a passive defence, waiting for the Ukrainians to find a way through the minefields and then overcoming their extensive fortifications. Instead they have sought to deny Ukrainian forces any gains at all. So when, for example, Ukraine liberates a village, a Russian counter-attack is soon mounted. Even though most of these counter-attacks are not successful, the Russian objective may simply be keep up pressure on Ukraine so that they cannot consolidate any gains and must prepare their own defences.

This makes for some fierce clashes, but it also probably suits Ukraine because it means that Russian forces become more vulnerable as they move out from their concealed and protected positions. 



Seems a lot of wars go this way; attrition and logistics.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 21, 2023, 03:17:53 PM
Yeah, Girkin had pushed too hard recently against the regime even as a pro-war guy.  He was regularly criticizing Putin for not going far enough.  That level of dissent is no longer being tolerated at all.

The other interesting thing today, Erdogan is now starting to reverse on the initial refusal to have the Turkish navy escort civilian shipping to and from Ukraine.  The Russians warned him that if the Turks escorted civilian ships that it would be "unwise" which has provoked the Turks even further.

I am not surprised.  The Russians trying to close even part of the Black Sea to commerce is majorly pissing in Turkey's cornflakes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 21, 2023, 03:30:45 PM
How many Turkish subs operate in the Black Sea?  :cool:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 03:33:16 PM
that russian counter attack in the north seems to be getting chewed to pieces with lots of footage of cluster munitions used.  this is the exact tactical environment these things were designed for.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 03:33:49 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 21, 2023, 03:30:45 PMHow many Turkish subs operate in the Black Sea?  :cool:

how many SSNs are there that no one knows about?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 21, 2023, 04:14:02 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 03:33:16 PMthat russian counter attack in the north seems to be getting chewed to pieces with lots of footage of cluster munitions used.  this is the exact tactical environment these things were designed for.

Ukraine recieving Cluster Munitions to blunt Russkie offensive.
Nick of time coincidence?    Ooooooorrrrr?
Intelligence saw it coming and time of delivery was deliberate?

I know where I fall on this.


As an aside....
I used to go on the odd winter vacation in Cuba (Canadian privilege), but I won't now. Poor decision by Cuban leadership to hob-knob with Putin. Yeah I know that for years the russians ignored Cuba, and now they come plying them with food/oil/tech.... but still.... have they no pride/global political sense?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 05:18:29 PM
come to Ft Lauderdale  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 21, 2023, 05:25:34 PM
Windi, I do wonder how much of the US decision to supply them with cluster munitions was because:

1) The US was running out of other types of 155mm shells to share right away, or...
2) The Ukes were running out of Soviet-made 152mm cluster munitions for when they needed them, or...
3) Somebody's intelligence suspected that they'd be useful.

Of course, there's also the guy posted a few pages upthread who speculated that the submunitions would just be used to arm disposable Ukrainian drones.

I guess "all of the above" is as likely an answer as any other.  But, yeah, cluster munitions are much more useful in attacking soft and semi-hard targets than in hitting prepared defensive fortifications.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 05:30:23 PM
its all the above.  I'm willing to just give in to serendipity.   :Dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 21, 2023, 05:39:54 PM
pretty

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682476242568634370
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 22, 2023, 01:24:34 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on July 14, 2023, 10:26:29 AMIf people on the board are interested, I can run a couple of simulations in Matrix Games' "Nuclear War Simulator" and post the results here.  Let me know what scenarios you are interested in.  I think probably the worst case would be a 1 kT W54 at 40' in the air, but I'm willing to run others.

Instead could I please ask your expert opinion on a comparison of the Russian and Turkish navies in the Black Sea?  Unfortunately, Turkey's economic interests are threatened and I think we will see posturing should Erdogan find Putin intransigent on further attempts at diplomacy.  However, Turkey, under Erdogan, did shoot down a SU-24 in 2015 in Syria, allegedly over black market fuel.  It's a big jump from shooting down a plane in 2015, to a potential naval confrontation now, but I am curious about the ramifications.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2023, 01:53:56 AM
if a fight happens in the Black Sea, Turkey "should" be more then able to handle russia by itself.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 22, 2023, 09:42:01 AM
Loaded statements here...

https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/07/21/poland-must-be-reminded-its-western-territories-were-gift-from-stalin-says-putin/

A lot of rhetoric that mirrors some of the statements before the start of the Ukraine war.  Notably, that Poland exists at the pleasure and generosity of Russia and its existence is probably a mistake. 

Also some cute weirdly pro-Nazi historical revisionism, blaming Polish aggression for the start of WW2.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2023, 09:51:30 AM
brilliant idea!  piss of the one country thats seriously considering getting involved without NATO.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2023, 10:13:53 AM
heres some CQB  :shocked:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682762576675864577
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2023, 10:34:56 AM
still waiting for these to show up

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682644746936696833
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2023, 01:40:07 PM
 :ThumbsUp:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682552301003632642
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 23, 2023, 10:10:27 AM
lets GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1683095023594745858
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 23, 2023, 10:16:48 AM
^That is extremely satisfying.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 23, 2023, 10:35:15 AM
The current bombardment of Odes(s)a is another sad event in a series of sad events in this war.

I wonder if Russia will produce some excuse at a future point down the road to do the same to Lviv and drive Poland nuts even more?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 23, 2023, 02:59:47 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2023, 01:40:07 PM:ThumbsUp:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682552301003632642

I heard that in the lyrics of a parody video from 11 years ago:


"Inter-esting; your whole team is resting? Protesting, that I'm giving a molesting!"

(Don't know what happened to Scream Team, their last video seems to be 4 years ago.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 23, 2023, 04:22:43 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 23, 2023, 10:35:15 AMThe current bombardment of Odes(s)a is another sad event in a series of sad events in this war.

I wonder if Russia will produce some excuse at a future point down the road to do the same to Lviv and drive Poland nuts even more?
Apparently, that is Lukashenko's job.  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/23/wagner-group-fighters-want-attack-poland-lukashenko-belarus/
Complete vranyo, even stupider than Putin saying Poland wants its Ukrainian territory back and will occupy it. 
It has been 103 years since the Soviet attack on Poland, so perhaps they don't remember what happened.  The Poles are just as motivated; their training was good then, it's even better now.  Let's not even mention NATO membership and equipment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 23, 2023, 04:37:25 PM
To the extent that they even know what they're doing, the Russians are, I think, trying to provoke an offensive by Poland into Belarus.  Russia can then respond, saying "They're coming to the defense of a treaty-bound ally" or somesuch, while the rest of NATO gets to sit out because Poland putatively initiated the hostilities.

I'm not saying that's the likely outcome.  That's just the outcome that I suspect the Russian hardliners are hoping for.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 23, 2023, 04:41:57 PM
Yeah, Lukashenko I'm sure is doing his "best" to control Wagner. 

I mean, it'd be a terrible shame if they attacked the Poles as rouges totally not supported by either Russia and Belarus.

Just like how the "Little Green Men" invaded the Donbas and Crimea with Russia having absolutely nothing to do with it at all. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 23, 2023, 04:53:27 PM
^Good posts. All of which makes me think that the 'coup' last month was orchestrated and premeditated to get 25k Wagner troops into Belarus, positioned to really stick it to Poland, and maybe even act.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on July 23, 2023, 05:04:51 PM
20k wagners wouldn't do shit in Poland.  Not happy to see the war expand, but if you've seen how motivated and aggressive the poles are, I'm positive the poles are saying bring it bitches to the Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 23, 2023, 05:13:03 PM
From the Russian perspective if they're dead set on eventually expanding the war to Poland and somehow getting around Article 5, the time is now.

The Pole's military expansion and modernization program is only three years old and they only now have accepted the first ten of the 1000 K2 Black Panthers they have on order from Hyundai.  Their first F-35's aren't far off either. 

I'd argue that considering they're stuck in a quagmire in Ukraine that is chewing Russia's resources up would put them in no shape to fight an even unsupported Poland today, but they certainly will be in no shape to take them a five years down the road even if they win in Ukraine tomorrow.

Expansion of the conflict to Poland, even without NATO, would give Putin an excuse to really ramp up the 2nd Great Patriotic War rhetoric and finally give him an excuse to declare a true existential crisis in Russia and fully mobilize.

Again, these are mad thoughts that bear little adjacency to logical and sensible national action, but since when have the Russians been acting sane lately?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 23, 2023, 05:20:14 PM
^In light of the last year and half, I can see exactly what you posted actually happening...I hope you're wrong.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 23, 2023, 05:35:58 PM
As of mid-week, the Beeb is reporting 600 Wagner troops in Belarus.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-66234260
QuoteHow many troops have relocated?
It is currently unclear exactly how many troops are relocating to Tsel.

The Belarusian investigative journalism outlet Hayun estimates that a total of 100 units - cars, trucks and coaches - and about 600 people might have travelled to Tsel.

BBC Verify has counted 31 large vehicles - probably trucks - in the footage showing the convoy that arrived at Tsel on Monday, although several might have been covered by trees.

In an address to the Russian nation on 26 June - after the end of the mutiny - President Vladimir Putin offered Wagner fighters the choice of signing contracts directly with the Russian Defence Ministry, or going to Belarus with leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The Poles aren't fools, they're reinforcing their border with Belarus as they did the border with Kalingrad last year.  A provocation like a cross border raid or infiltration would be spectacularly stupid on Wagner's part. If the Poles were somehow provoked into rash action, CSTO is falling apart and no one will send troops to aid Belarus or Russia.  https://www.businessinsider.com/csto-russia-equivalent-of-nato-crumbling-amid-failures-ukraine-war-2023-5?op=1

Well, here's me being spectacularly stupid; the Poles would be able to translate it much better.  Davai suka-tch!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 23, 2023, 05:36:57 PM
I hope I'm wrong too. 

The scenario I'd expect would be to provoke Poland via Wagner to strike Belarus, or at least create room for a credible way to stage an attack. 

Then Poland and Belarus could be at war, with Russia being officially neutral. 

Of course Wagner being a semi-rouge third party would swell its ranks with loyal, patriotic Russian volunteers just like the DPR and LNR "militias" did. 

Even if Article 5 was invoked, the argument could be made that Russia has nothing to do with it.  I mean, you see how crazy those Wagnerites are right?  They marched on Moscow and almost overthrew the Russian government.  Russia would of course try to stop them, but they're fighting for their lives in Ukraine!  If NATO hadn't supported the Nazi regime in Kyiv then Russia would of course have already won, turned Ukraine into a paradise and would put these crazy Wagnerites in their place. 

Stuff almost writes itself.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 23, 2023, 05:38:33 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 23, 2023, 05:13:03 PMFrom the Russian perspective if they're dead set on eventually expanding the war to Poland and somehow getting around Article 5, the time is now.

The Pole's military expansion and modernization program is only three years old and they only now have accepted the first ten of the 1000 K2 Black Panthers they have on order from Hyundai.  Their first F-35's aren't far off either. 

I'd argue that considering they're stuck in a quagmire in Ukraine that is chewing Russia's resources up would put them in no shape to fight an even unsupported Poland today, but they certainly will be in no shape to take them a five years down the road even if they win in Ukraine tomorrow.

Expansion of the conflict to Poland, even without NATO, would give Putin an excuse to really ramp up the 2nd Great Patriotic War rhetoric and finally give him an excuse to declare a true existential crisis in Russia and fully mobilize.

Again, these are mad thoughts that bear little adjacency to logical and sensible national action, but since when have the Russians been acting sane lately?

This scenario would truly be an existential war for everyone.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 23, 2023, 06:00:42 PM
I think it only starts to get existential if NATO forces start crossing into Russian territory or attacking Russian cities.  Not that the Poles might not do that, but Polish offensive options without a nuclear deterrent versus a neighbor sporting thousands of nuclear warheads as a deterrent seem limited.

This is more of the brinksmanship that Putin played successfully (in Georgia, Chechnya, Eastern Ukraine, and Syria) until 2022 and unsuccessfully since then.  Whether any of his hardliners actually think a great mobilization of Mother Russia would resurrect the glories of WW 2 is hard to tell, but I think many of them must be delusional.  That, or they're just trying to stay in power for one more year and can't or won't think further ahead than that.

The Russian people, meanwhile, feed their youth into the wood chipper at a staggeringly enthusiastic rate, howling at the Nazi threat posed in the West.  (forgetting, among other things, that we also played an instrumental role in defeating the Nazis 80 years ago...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 23, 2023, 07:07:41 PM
but what to do about Kalingrad?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 23, 2023, 07:13:01 PM
Demographically, with everything that follows logically and practically from that, Russia's government (very emphatically) IS in an existential crisis. They have so badly mis-managed their people that the government will soon have no national power to flex from its people. They won't admit that, of course, but all signs about what they're actually doing (and what they're not really capable of doing anymore) point to this internal problem.

It's important to keep this in mind, and not be distracted into throwing out the existential problem with their dumbass public justifications. (Which in turn are based on some important grains of truth, though not enough to actually justify what they're doing and trying to do.)

The Russian government aren't merely pretending to have an crisis of national existence, even though it looks that way to us based on how they're framing it for propaganda purposes (to avoid and shift blame away from their own selves). And that government, whoever is in charge, will continue acting against that crisis of eventual government failure. It would be nice if they acted in sane and helpful ways to bring the crashing airship of state into a belly landing for repair and eventual take-off again, instead of nose-diving harder into the ground trying a reverse split-S to gain enough speed for altitude after the transition (or aerobatic metaphors to that effect). But that depends on the people in charge.

And the people in charge, and with any likelihood to be in charge during the crash, are thieves abusing their people for their own profit.

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on July 23, 2023, 06:00:42 PMThat, or they're just trying to stay in power for one more year and can't or won't think further ahead than that.

Yep. Partly because there isn't anything real to plan ahead toward, which adds to the temptation to delusion.

The best short analysis I've heard about Shakespeare's play King John, is that it's a character study of a situation where practically every character only acts in his or her immediate short term interest, leading to continuing and escalating catastrophe.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 23, 2023, 07:28:21 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 23, 2023, 07:13:01 PMDemographically, with everything that follows logically and practically from that, Russia's government (very emphatically) IS in an existential crisis. They have so badly mis-managed their people that the government will soon have no national power to flex from its people. They won't admit that, of course, but all signs about what they're actually doing (and what they're not really capable of doing anymore) point to this internal problem.

I completely agree with that assessment.

They find themselves in a worse situation in the long term than even Germany was in the 30's.  They're faced with two roads, become a more stable part of the international community and accept their place as a part of Europe and not its leader, or go to war to try to enforce their will.

Sadly they're choosing the second option.

Putin missed a golden opportunity to become the true father of a new Russia if he'd just demilitarized, de escalated the nuclear stockpile and had invested in his people rather than his Imperial ambitions.  It would've just meant that Russia would have to be a partner in greater Europe, and a slightly lesser one. 

 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 23, 2023, 07:50:28 PM
'It would be nice if they [the Russians] acted in sane and helpful ways.'

And that is really what this is all about, isn't it.

Fucking Russia[tm]  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 23, 2023, 10:15:05 PM
I don't know, I think the Russian people love a Strongman like they love vodka. Going back to Ivan the Terrible that's all they've ever known. If Putin had started acting like Gandhi, they would have tossed him out and put somebody else in who could've made the world fear the Russian bear again. Putin's not Stalin, but he's as close as they can get, for now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 23, 2023, 10:35:39 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 23, 2023, 10:15:05 PMI don't know, I think the Russian people love a Strongman like they love vodka. Going back to Ivan the Terrible that's all they've ever known. If Putin had started acting like Gandhi, they would have tossed him out and put somebody else in who could've made the world fear the Russian bear again. Putin's not Stalin, but he's as close as they can get, for now.

Possibly. 

I hate to agree with you but there's a series that interviews Russians on the street and it's almost universally showing Russians in Moscow angry that the war isn't more intense and extreme.

There are exceptions.  I saw one of those and was touched by this one very pretty lady that just went off on the insanity of the war, its cost, and she had the extreme bravery to call out Putin.

There's a thing that is a bit lost.  The call ups, conscription and sending a generation to the charnel house has been in many ways targeted to not effect the population that Putin relies on to stay in power.

Russia is huge and they've largely targeted for conscription and war demographics that don't effect the Russian European population at large.   

Many Russians don't feel this war at home, at least the Russians that "matter".  It's a war fought by the underclass and what general Russians feel are "undesirable".

The war is still popular, and many feel it should be expanded. The general European population see Russia as fighting all of the west and winning.  There is no ground support there to stop it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 23, 2023, 11:18:59 PM
and thats the shitty reality of western help.  the war needs to be brought home to moscow but thats an escalation thats pretty dangerous imo.  there are legitimate frustrating limits unless you take the boiled frog approach.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 23, 2023, 11:39:32 PM
I support what you say about the vocal pro-war element, Sir A. You have to be amazed at the willingness to accept the lies, propaganda and indoctrination.

The anti-war population has been silenced with just under 20000 arrested, some for only holding up a blank piece of paper. It's disappointing that the majority of Russians didn't take to the streets knowing they all couldn't be arrested.  But a sentence of fifteen years for disparaging the Russian military has been effective in driving opposition underground.

It's a guess as to which, the vocal or silent, are the majority or the minority.  Another question is to the willingness of the Russians to abandon empire and become a junior partner in Europe and have greater prosperity.  Under Putin this would never happen, least of all because of European demand for lack of corruption and the jeopardy this would put the oligarchs in. Putin was clever enough to provide a decent standard of living for most Russians through the export of natural resources.  A further question is how much of the population will blame the West for their economic decline.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 23, 2023, 11:47:29 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 23, 2023, 11:18:59 PMand thats the shitty reality of western help.  the war needs to be brought home to moscow but thats an escalation thats pretty dangerous imo.  there are legitimate frustrating limits unless you take the boiled frog approach.

I tend to agree and do so I feel understanding Russia and it limitations.

Zelensky this week was outwardly angry and said the current offensive was only limited by hesitant and late NATO support.

He's right.  Russia is insane but not enough to risk a nuclear exchange.  The West sent too little and too late.

The West's hesitancy has encouraged Moscow. We hesitated and now there's a legit play to get into Poland.

Russia must be beaten on the field.  It must be shown strength or it will test and push and go over lines we don't wish crossed. 

They aren't operating on a playing field we see as logical.  They honestly never have been.  This war has to be won, here, now or we risk a worse one a thousand fold later.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 24, 2023, 12:32:16 AM
the Ukraine Defense Minister opined that the war would be won by next summer.
from all Ive seen the AFUK (just like that acronym)just need the tools to hammer a sector or two and push through.
I know, easier said then done.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 24, 2023, 12:33:58 AM
QuoteThe West sent too little and too late.

the release of cluster munitions seems to be have quite the effect right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 24, 2023, 12:49:47 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 24, 2023, 12:33:58 AM
QuoteThe West sent too little and too late.

the release of cluster munitions seems to be have quite the effect right now.

They needed armor and airpower.  The munitions help and yeah, it's a war crime but it's one Russia committed a long time ago and extremely.

The unexploded munitions the Russians planted are going to be a gift that's going to keep on giving for a couple of centuries.  Cluster munitions aren't going to change that.

The UAF though needed armor and airpower.  Both could've been given earlier and weren't, and a lot of it was avoidable and was the pressure of lobbies I won't go into.


This is a war that must be won.  Read George Kennan and Dean Acheson and get the gist of it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 24, 2023, 01:54:38 AM
it aint a war crime if you never sighed on  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 24, 2023, 07:14:05 AM
Speaking of Russian seduction and manipulation! ....and Putin, too, I guess!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ex-kgb-spy-who-trained-at-the-same-military-academy-as-putin-says-he-s-a-master-manipulator-brainwashed-russians/ar-AA1efbYK?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=0a211934be574752ae5ecc0efbad5e25&ei=33

(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1efbYy.img?w=768&h=402&m=6&x=75&y=58&s=599&d=213)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 24, 2023, 10:07:54 AM
why is there always that muddy ditch

https://twitter.com/i/status/1683248376324784129
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 24, 2023, 10:08:15 AM
I do believe she could make me talk. And possibly beg, roll-over and any number of other tricks.

Curious, we know the Afghan War sapped the strength out of the old Soviet Union but does anyone know how popular/unpopular that war was in the minds of the Russian public back then? I know they didn't get all the facts and couldn't speak freely, but did the average Ivan on the street support that conflict like today's group support the Ukraine War? Or is this conflict more of a strictly Russian thing in their minds?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 24, 2023, 10:46:23 AM
^Read a book titled 'Afgantsy' by Briathwaite - it answers all your questions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 24, 2023, 05:07:17 PM
Paraphrase for those of us who didn't, please!   :Party:

My understanding is that, over time, the number of burnt-out Soviet vets coming back from Afghanistan added up.  I think it was one of the contributing factors--along with an effort to liberalize Soviet civil and academic society--to the decline of popularity for the Communist government.  But I know just enough here to be dangerous.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on July 24, 2023, 05:58:47 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 24, 2023, 12:49:47 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 24, 2023, 12:33:58 AM
QuoteThe West sent too little and too late. [/

The UAF though needed armor and airpower.  Both could've been given earlier and weren't, and a lot of it was avoidable and was the pressure of lobbies I won't go into.
 

.


Pressure of lobbies you won't go into ?  Darn, I wanted to hear your take on that.  But it seems you may have been respecting devolving the thread into muddy politics.  Unfortunately, it'll go there with the looming 2024 elections.  I'm pretty sure Ukraine will play a part
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 24, 2023, 07:14:19 PM
Because I love you fellers:

Afgantsy by Sir Rodric Braithwaite
https://shorturl.at/xBVW7

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 24, 2023, 09:24:06 PM
And we love you too. Not the, 'I'd share a toothbrush with you' kind of love but if you came by, I would give you a beer and bring-out the good party nuts.  :Hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 24, 2023, 11:31:55 PM
When Gus hears the phrase "good party nuts", I think his mind might go somewhere different than the rest of us, Slash...   :beermug[1]:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 25, 2023, 09:46:43 AM
Always comes back to the party nuts...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 25, 2023, 10:27:33 AM
 :tequila:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 25, 2023, 11:06:55 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 22, 2023, 10:13:53 AMheres some CQB  :shocked:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682762576675864577


today I learned that a Mukha is an RPG-18. Good find for the squad
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 25, 2023, 11:16:16 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 24, 2023, 12:33:58 AM
QuoteThe West sent too little and too late.

the release of cluster munitions seems to be have quite the effect right now.

Trenches? Pffft
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 25, 2023, 02:25:50 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1683880873735729152
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 25, 2023, 02:32:21 PM
What I don't understand is why the russkies seem to cower down into their dugouts and trenches not moving at all. Are they scared shitless? Absolutely no training at all? Both? Maybe shell shocked too?

Another thought is why are their trenchlines so freaking messy; garbage everywhere. Might as well advertise that there is a position there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 25, 2023, 02:47:04 PM
Someone in Russia: y'know what, let's hit the absolute farthest western Ukrainian port area, show them we mean business, no one is safe anywhere!

Variably sane person in Russia: but, well, lots of NATO ships transit that area, too, like Romania.

Someone: who the hell cares?! If they don't want to be hit by our drones they shouldn't be anywhere near Ukraine, even on a river border!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 25, 2023, 03:34:58 PM
Quote from: Windigo on July 25, 2023, 02:32:21 PMWhat I don't understand is why the russkies seem to cower down into their dugouts and trenches not moving at all. Are they scared shitless? Absolutely no training at all? Both? Maybe shell shocked too?

Another thought is why are their trenchlines so freaking messy; garbage everywhere. Might as well advertise that there is a position there.

what else are they supposed to do?  they mostly dont seem to have any armor or ifv support and the Ukrainians are getting pretty good at shelling very specific areas that are getting assaulted.  an no, they arent trained properly.  as for the garbage... again what else are they going to do?  any trench line is going to be spotted by uav's and whos going to risk going above ground for a garbage collection point.
one of the more prolific russian shills today posted a video of "massive train of russian equipment heading to the front".  it was maybe a dozed trucks, 2 mine clearing tracks, 1 bmp, 1 tank and some farm equipment.  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 25, 2023, 04:45:36 PM
I saw several short videos of these supply trains... just more confirmation that they are scrapping the bottom of the barrel.

While I agree that uav's will spot most trench lines, it'll be a lot harder to determine exactly what's there exactly if you did't outline them with brightly coloured trash. Would it kill them just to bury it within the trench line?

Further I cannot fathom just sitting in a dugout shitting my pants, waiting for the inevitable grenade. Damn....

It all talks to me of no discipline, bad training and woefully shitty morale.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 25, 2023, 04:46:51 PM
QuoteIt all talks to me of no discipline, bad training and woefully shitty morale.

yes  :RockOn:

fuck russia
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 25, 2023, 05:40:03 PM
I pity those dumb buggers, but only a little... they got the government they deserved.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 25, 2023, 07:31:05 PM
I grew up with tons of Russian immigrants and 99 out of 100 of them are the most arrogant d-bags you will ever meet. Nothing like the kids you see in those trenches.

Also the trash does not surprise me - Russians are slobs in Brooklyn too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 25, 2023, 07:47:31 PM
the same for those this live in Hallendale.  :tickedoff:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 25, 2023, 07:56:34 PM
My parents still live in NYC (Queens not Brooklyn anymore) and they have seen plenty of interesting pro and anti Putin parades/cars/floats/what-have-you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 25, 2023, 08:32:25 PM
Not gonna lie, I'd pay money to watch a film about Russians and Ukrainians fighting with farm equipment. It could be a dark satire, that'd be fine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 25, 2023, 10:36:22 PM
Or Putin vs Zelensky Pay-Per-View. I see Putin as the wrestler who pulls a crowbar out his shorts when the ref is looking elsewhere, smacks Zelensky, then tosses it to Ping standing at ringside before the ref sees what's going down.  :strongbad:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 25, 2023, 11:59:19 PM
Putin would have guys in the audience launching deadly poison blow darts at Zelensky.

Before the match even started.  Zelensky would collapse from the nerve toxins, Putin would rip his robes off and go parading around the ring bare-chested, strutting for all to see and admire as he waved his belt over his head.

You know that anticipation for the rematch would then be off the charts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 26, 2023, 06:55:33 AM
And then he would ride a bear! -- in the interfight promotional material.

(...possibly sponsored by Baldur's Gate III......  :HideEyes: )


What counts of course is who gets first billing on the fight ticket.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 26, 2023, 07:02:33 AM
Meanwhile in non-breaking news, Romanian ship scuffed by Russian drone attack still ignored...? -- maybe for the best...?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 26, 2023, 07:57:52 AM
In less good news: Russia remembers their special concept of schwerpunkt, with 100K troops(apparently??) pushing a spearhead -- or shovelhead -- into Ukrainian defenses yesterday.


The concept apparently is to get some kind of forward gain at any cost, so that politically Russia can announce a new level of (partial) mobilization as part of a victory momentum rather than desperation.

At a more operational level, they're trying to sever Ukrainian logistics in the region forcing a withdrawal -- and maybe also trying to force Ukraine to deploy their massed mobile reserves at last, except over here on defense rather than for exploiting the Uks' own push to sever supplies to Russian troops in Crimea.

Denis also has an interesting look (among other things) at the economic-logistic loopiness of the Russians from an angle I hadn't seen before: the Russians can't refine their oil into diesel at any useable rate (maybe at all?) so they depend on selling oil to Turkey and Hungary to buy back refined diesel. But those nations sell fuel to Ukraine, refined from the same Russian oil!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on July 26, 2023, 01:38:28 PM
Pretty amazing video of an assault
The C&C portions show how you end up winning these knife fights - its long and cant take the veracity of it.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 26, 2023, 01:55:32 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 26, 2023, 07:57:52 AMIn less good news: Russia remembers their special concept of schwerpunkt, with 100K troops(apparently??) pushing a spearhead -- or shovelhead -- into Ukrainian defenses yesterday.

For the last month or so, I've been seeing various rumor-like stories coming from the pro-Ukrainian sources that the Russians were building up a huge force of over 100,000 for a re-invigorated offensive push towards one of the major cities. But I had not seen any of the analysts picking this up, so I didn't pay much attention.

Most analysts have been talking about how Russia has been scraping the bottom of the barrel for troops...so would definitely be a surprise if they have managed to put together such a force.

But still not seeing much about this build up that Denys refers to. Latest update from ISW still doesn't really talk about this either. 

Hopefully just a blip...but I guess the next 24-72 hours will tell.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 26, 2023, 02:03:34 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on July 26, 2023, 01:55:32 PMFor the last month or so, I've been seeing various rumor-like stories coming from the pro-Ukrainian sources that the Russians were building up a huge force of over 100,000 for a re-invigorated offensive push towards one of the major cities. But I had not seen any of the analysts picking this up, so I didn't pay much attention.

Still not seeing much about this. Latest update from ISW still doesn't really talk about this either. 

Hopefully just a blip...but I guess the next 24-48 hours will tell.

It's not a blip.  The Russians have shifted a lot of their more capable units to the north and have, indeed, amassed about 100k troops and on the order of 1k front line tanks into a coherently operated and fairly decently supplied force. 

They've managed some significant gains in the last couple of days attacking from the major supply axis at Svatove and have achieved at least one breakthrough. 

There were apparently some determined counterattacks today that regained some ground but we'll see how it develops. 

This was largely dismissed as either an exaggeration of feint by the Russians to draw forces away from the counteroffensive, but it seems to me that this is a more determined push that is drawing significant resources, including reportedly heavy supplies from China. 

So far the Russians have been unable to sustain these kinds of drives logistically, but they've been preparing the areas in the north for this at the expense of other areas of the front for a while. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 26, 2023, 02:33:34 PM
from what Ive been seeing the gains arent necessarily breakthroughs.  these are the area Ukraine retook late last year and theyve been building the same kind of rear area defenses that the russians have been building down south.  IMO its the Ukrainians falling back to the next line and not taking unneeded losses.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 26, 2023, 02:42:54 PM
from yesterday

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F16a3qBWEAAEmOd?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 26, 2023, 02:57:40 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F10xnbRXsAMT5ao?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 26, 2023, 03:06:47 PM
ffs, I had some other maps that I cant find now showing the extreme north eastern front  :grumpy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 26, 2023, 03:46:43 PM
might be go time in the south

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/26/world/russia-ukraine-news?unlocked_article_code=P_RU2TjKraFQCkgGohUVpX0TeC6wdATqSFJUoFUmLEV0_MRnUSZvD4-mxzQxkKPf9fFBB_1tl6eb9wN11r5AE-tgBTfCRgMtwMdDYcnXh6TgTjSuWFRZMwOI4k7Jdb365JyBZ5JYWae0GPQF5nQg4cDjBbzHZgVVrCbKdMYESYsEhKQ_20t0WsbQi0khkjTs4ygP5AfW7i6tidXFpAcjAY9nHxWpWVB0WrFPt5lvnl4Kl7UhMfiEzBsOjWddqrmFinUVsCxiInvHtf9f3JHPx_7VTK4PmtSK-S-4d2MT84kNO1NHFAN2iyDppiMlDCVrS1YSbbxwBFh9Nlv9CB-PGDbZANQ&smid=url-share
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 26, 2023, 04:10:29 PM
In this area the Russians will be able to draw supply from Belgorod and Voronezh, hopefully the Ukrainians will be able to restrict it to a salient and smash it with artillery, especially their new ICM. 

The video Jason P. posted also showed that Shoigu is in N. Korea.  The BBC also mentions it: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66309231  N. Korea did supply Russia with artillery ammunition and rockets last year, NPR says millions https://www.npr.org/2022/09/07/1121477374/north-korean-ammo-will-stretch-russias-supply-but-with-clear-limits-and-drawback  So Shoigu will probably ask for more of the same, but I suspect he will also ask for troops as there was rumour and speculation of N. Korea was considering providing last year.  With the state of starvation of the majority of N. Koreans, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65881803 they might just do it.  The N. Koreans are also finally coming out of their COVID isolation. 

I haven't seen any news of China replenishing N. Korea's artillery supplies, thus indirectly supporting Russia, but China is sending incredible amounts of military gear to Russia including drones, thermal sights and body armour.  https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sending-russia-masses-of-military-gear-including-drones-report-2023-7?op=1

Finally, no one will like this, it's definitely not cheer-leading.  A leaked Bundeswehr intelligence report https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/26/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-germany-report-leak/ states:
QuoteIts central thesis, as it were, is that Ukraine's counter-offensive is failing to make progress because its army is not fully implementing the training it has received from the West. Kyiv is spreading its troops out too thinly across the 1,000km front line and attacking in units composed of too few soldiers, according to its findings. Furthermore, Ukrainian soldiers trained by the West are showing "great learning success" but they are let down by commanders who have not been through the boot camps. It states that the Ukrainian military favours promoting soldiers with combat experience over those who have received NATO-standard instruction. Commanders can therefore show "considerable deficiencies in leadership" which lead to "wrong and dangerous decisions", the military document claims.

According to the Bundeswehr assessment, Ukraine is sacrificing its advantage in manpower by attacking in units of between 10 and 30 men, insufficient to break through Russian lines. It adds that the small unit sizes increase the risk of friendly fire and fail to group together enough Western-trained soldiers to be operationally effective.

The report claimed that Western-trained soldiers understood "the operational principles of fire and movement" but when they returned to Ukraine would often be commanded by officers who used different military tactics. German military leaders also express frustration at experienced fighters being promoted over Western-trained troops, with the report claiming "combat experience does not mean that the soldier is a good leader in combat".

Hopefully, Starfury's NYT posts are what breaks the Russian's back, but if the Bundeswehr is critical of Ukrainian operations they would be wise to adapt.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 26, 2023, 04:15:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 26, 2023, 02:33:34 PMfrom what Ive been seeing the gains arent necessarily breakthroughs.  these are the area Ukraine retook late last year and theyve been building the same kind of rear area defenses that the russians have been building down south.  IMO its the Ukrainians falling back to the next line and not taking unneeded losses.

Also of note that many of the advances the Russians made in the center got rolled back quite quickly.

The main threat is north of Kupiansk where the northern stretch of the Oskil is fordable.  That area's been pretty thinly defended due to other fronts taking precedence but yes, the UAF's been fortifying the area heavily especially around the river and Lyman.  Those will be tougher nuts to crack.

With the possibility the UAF is finally able to deploy its reserves in the south we'll see how long the Russians will concentrate on that front as a priority. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 26, 2023, 04:34:31 PM
QuoteAlso of note that many of the advances the Russians made in the center got rolled back quite quickly.

the magic of DIPCM  :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 26, 2023, 04:44:48 PM
So... I was distracted while eye-washing through the NYT analysis, so I didn't get a clear idea of some points, and now I have to do something else. But has a breakthrough somehow been created to exploit with the mobile main force? -- or has the anti-Ork attrition in the area created a thin enough crust that, combined with a clear path having been made through the front defenses, it's time for the hammer to punch the awl through the crust and burst the dike or metaphors to that effect? (This is what I gathered the 'offense' so far was aiming for, not really to create a breakthrough in itself, but to create the conditions for a catastrophic breakthrough by the main mobile force.)

Or, with 100K relatively well-supplied Orks gathered into a push elsewhere, is it time to roll the dice now and hope for the best, before the Uks' main mobile punch has to be shifted over to something like a direct slugging match over there? Crumble the Ork offense by threatening a worse result? Who suffers more from a snapped artery? (Including which offense suffers more from a snapped artery?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 26, 2023, 04:51:07 PM
no idea.  Ukraine operational security has been good as usual.  having said that, the russians aren't fairing well in the north if they actually have that force size.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on July 27, 2023, 07:18:35 AM
Russia raising the draft age from 27 to 30; expected to add 2.4 million men to Russian forces.  And the grind goes on...


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 27, 2023, 08:04:10 AM
Looks like the Russian 100K offensive isn't going so well; although as I've seen several commenters note, this is partly (or totally?) based on Ukrainian counter-claims which may be misleading for several reasons (including possibly good tactical security).

Here's Denis' catchup from last night.


And Suchomimus, though somewhat earlier yesterday:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 27, 2023, 10:17:29 AM
I think its kind of funny that moscow is flooded right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 27, 2023, 12:27:02 PM
There has been a coup in Niger https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66324875  This is the country were four US soldiers were killed in 2017 and it currently hosts a US drone base to patrol the Sahel and 1,100 US troops.  Although, it might not have anything to do with Ukraine, it looks suspiciously like Wagner is involved.  From: https://apnews.com/article/what-to-know-niger-attempted-coup-security-a229a854e625eb8e15cd2a8c65048bd1
QuoteWagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a statement Thursday that "what happened in Niger is the fight of its people against the colonizers. ... It effectively means winning independence. The rest will depend on the people of Niger."

Hundreds of people gathered on Thursday in Niger's capital, Niamey, and chanted support for Wagner while waving Russian flags.
Niger borders Mali and Burkina Faso which after undergoing coups, Wagner moved in.  Libya, a Wagner stronghold, borders Niger to the north, but I don't think there is a strong communication network between, the road connecting going through Algeria.  Should Wagner troops make a rapid appearance in Niger, especially to prop up the coup, it would be indicative of their involvement in the coup, possibly with FSB support.

Even without Wagner involvement if the coup holds, it will probably see the US and French military presences asked to leave, under the guise of throwing off colonial shackles.  Something that Russia would like to see very much.  They may not be playing chess, but it looks like their playing dominoes. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 27, 2023, 02:41:44 PM
guess whos arrived at the russians MLR.
seems to have been a remote control bmp to scout for mines and get into the trench.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1684613843593330704

https://twitter.com/i/status/1684594818414972929
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 27, 2023, 03:44:36 PM
never fly aeroflot

https://twitter.com/i/status/1684643816781889536

also from the last day

https://twitter.com/i/status/1684652552749563904
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 27, 2023, 03:48:54 PM
Jesus, Mary and JoJo to those last two...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 27, 2023, 04:03:36 PM
heres russia in a nutshell

https://twitter.com/i/status/1684571936855302145
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 28, 2023, 01:40:47 PM
Hearing about some good/more significant things coming from the offensive now. Apparently operational flexibility is giving the UAF some decent gains now.

Given the increased tempo of russian twitters with both weird and outlandish claims, I'd say the breaking point is very near.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 28, 2023, 01:45:05 PM
Quote from: Windigo on July 28, 2023, 01:40:47 PMHearing about some good/more significant things coming from the offensive now. Apparently operational flexibility is giving the UAF some decent gains now.

Given the increased tempo of russian twitters with both weird and outlandish claims, I'd say the breaking point is very near.

The UAF breached and flanked the first line of works in two places.  It's about to get spicy.

The entirety of the last two and a half months was mine clearing.  The amount of mines the Russians placed even strangled their own counter offensive options and capabilities and will be a gift that keeps on giving for the next couple of hundred years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on July 28, 2023, 01:53:42 PM
I do think this is an application where AI will make some significant contributions along with drone/remote technology

https://counteriedreport.com/next-generation-demining-with-ai-and-drones/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 28, 2023, 02:47:12 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 28, 2023, 01:45:05 PM
Quote from: Windigo on July 28, 2023, 01:40:47 PMHearing about some good/more significant things coming from the offensive now. Apparently operational flexibility is giving the UAF some decent gains now.

Given the increased tempo of russian twitters with both weird and outlandish claims, I'd say the breaking point is very near.

The UAF breached and flanked the first line of works in two places.  It's about to get spicy.

The entirety of the last two and a half months was mine clearing.  The amount of mines the Russians placed even strangled their own counter offensive options and capabilities and will be a gift that keeps on giving for the next couple of hundred years.

If we send city parks staff who skillfully find and retrieve needles discarded by druggies, to the Ukraine - it'll be cleared of mines in less than a year.  /s
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 28, 2023, 05:12:47 PM
Yeah, signifcantly good news coming out. 

The Russian offensive in Luhansk stalled, in many ways thanks to swift and effective deployment of artillery and fast acting by the local commander who was given the unenviable task of stabilizing the situation outnumbered 2:1 and commanding Territorial troops and reservists in training. 

The initial Russian gains have almost entirely been erased and the UAF has been doing a phased withdrawal to heights that they're fortifying near the Oskil Reservoir.

Expect to potentially see them surrender ground in the coming days gradually as they fall back to the stronger prepared positions as they've bought themselves valuable time to do so. 

And south of Orikhiv the UAF has made a significant and potentially decisive breach of the Russian works.

The most important part of that is that they have gotten into and are now flanking the entire main line of Russian entrenchments.  They pushed specifically in a schwerpunkt to cut the line, and now they can work their way up the trenches east to west, not into them.

With a push towards Verbove of only a couple more kilometers they are into the first reserve trench line as well and the Russians will be forced to pull back to their third and final set of works much farther to the south.

This area should be significantly less mined as the Russians have been using it to move men and supplies back and forth.  While they can quickly redeploy more fields, they won't be anywhere nearly as dense or problematic as the ones the UAF have been forced to clear before. 

I'd expect the Russians, if capable, will try some significant and determined counterattacks as the breaches there have compromised their ability to hold the main defense works. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2023, 05:43:57 PM
this shit show went down yesterday.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1684948655479074816

important to note that the infantry deployed before the bmps got smacked and ultimately the UAF took the trenchs and field and advanced.  while unconfirmed my take is that was part of the breach that Andrew covered.

also important to note that ayden is a fucking russian propagandist.  it is however another information source so as to not be stuck in an echo chamber.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 28, 2023, 11:15:41 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 28, 2023, 05:43:57 PMimportant to note that the infantry deployed before the bmps got smacked and ultimately the UAF took the trenchs and field and advanced.  while unconfirmed my take is that was part of the breach that Andrew covered.


It was. 

There was no way they weren't taking losses there and I'm sure the boys that were sent in knew what they were being asked to do and what was riding on it. 

I imagine the Russians will have quite a few kill boxes baked into some of those "weak" points. 

And this is unconfirmed and not yet reflected on maps but it's good news that is coming through.  The UAF is apparently in Verbove already.  If so that's an advance of almost 5km since yesterday's action and it means the UAF is behind and also flanking the reserve line of the main trench works. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 29, 2023, 01:55:26 PM
"COMRADES! -- our glorious Motherland needs more computer chips! The vile Nazis have millions of them, even in things like this washing machine here!"

"Hahahaha! How useless!"

"In a washing machine yes, but in our hands?!"

"....um, in our hands, what?"

"Ah, comrade, in our hands our beloved motherland will pay us FIVE US DOLLARS!"

"Amazing! How do we get them out?!"

"We must be careful, comrade, for if they are damaged they will be useless, and so only worth two US dollars!"

"Oh. Well, the solution is obvious! You take that side, and I'll take the other!"

"....ugh, but comrades, you could be carrying me to, cough, the rear lines for medical--"

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/15bxuuz/in_the_field_there_is_no_water_or_food_but_there/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 29, 2023, 01:59:50 PM
Meanwhile, cute Ukrainian correspondent flatters Czech vampire!  :Dreamer:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 29, 2023, 02:19:15 PM
I'm thinking the Ukes need a lot more of these as well as a lot more trees to hide them in.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 29, 2023, 03:14:48 PM
 :knuppel2:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2Mzn5sWcAAPWWw?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 29, 2023, 03:16:45 PM
 :Dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 29, 2023, 03:34:22 PM
I kinda like this meme

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2IfJQ9XQAADQOi?format=png&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 29, 2023, 04:16:44 PM
Yep, says everything necessary about the Russian defensive quandary: they MUST fight on the first line of defense, and so use their second and third lines for reserves to push forward, because if Ukraine gets to even the second line (much moreso the third) the last main supply route for Russian Crimea occupiers goes poot.

Once the crumbling starts, it's gonna escalate. There are no defenders left in the 2nd and 3rd line to amount to anything.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 29, 2023, 04:44:20 PM
and it other surprising news, South Africa gives putin the middle finger over his grain "gifts".

The South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, said at Putin's Africa party:

"We did not come here to ask for any 'gifts' for the African continent".

"As we listened to your [Putin's – ed.] speech today, when you were responding to some elements of our proposals, we noted the following. In particular, you were talking about grain. We proposed to implement the Black Sea Grain Initiative, we talked about the need to open the Black Sea, we said that we would like the Black Sea to be open to world markets."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 29, 2023, 04:46:59 PM
Step 1: shut down Ukrainian grain again.
Step 2: COMRADES OF THE WORLD, DO YOU NEED GRAIN, LIKE REALLY REALLY BADLY?!
Step 3: profit?
Step 5: win?



(Note: originally I typed "5" by accident, but then I let it stand because I laughed when I saw what I had done.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 29, 2023, 05:37:08 PM
Dude, Charlie Sheen would approve of that last post!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 29, 2023, 06:09:48 PM
WINNING...Russian style. Which really means...not winning, so much. And forgetting a step.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on July 29, 2023, 10:57:39 PM
nice piece from Forbes on repair and refit of damaged Leo IIs

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-tank-losses-diminish-as-polish-technicians-save-more-and-more-damaged-leopard-2s/ar-AA1exmj4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b602e69c2d7d43bbb2a752c73a6b41bf&ei=13 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-tank-losses-diminish-as-polish-technicians-save-more-and-more-damaged-leopard-2s/ar-AA1exmj4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b602e69c2d7d43bbb2a752c73a6b41bf&ei=13)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 29, 2023, 11:16:02 PM
Still not a lot of info if the UAF is really in Verbovne but the live map did reflect it's contested. 

Many others are not updating because of OPSEC.  This is a critical moment and the Russians don't need any more help.

There was a counterattack attempt at the UAF gains on the trenches, but, you guessed it, the Russians got pasted by their own mines and couldn't advance.  UAF arty did the rest.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on July 30, 2023, 12:24:39 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 29, 2023, 04:44:20 PMand it other surprising news, South Africa gives putin the middle finger over his grain "gifts".

The South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, said at Putin's Africa party:

"We did not come here to ask for any 'gifts' for the African continent".

"As we listened to your [Putin's – ed.] speech today, when you were responding to some elements of our proposals, we noted the following. In particular, you were talking about grain. We proposed to implement the Black Sea Grain Initiative, we talked about the need to open the Black Sea, we said that we would like the Black Sea to be open to world markets."

Given that China depends on quite massive grain import, and that they would likely not appreciate a grain price hike at all, and also given that Russia bombed Ukrainian grain storage waiting to be exported to China, and in the process, they actually managed to hit the Chinese embassy in Odessa, well, Xi is not a happy man either, I'd bet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 30, 2023, 12:48:02 AM
if you think about it, it's kinda funny that everyone always seems to hit the chinese embassy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jaedegader on July 30, 2023, 10:12:08 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 29, 2023, 03:34:22 PMI kinda like SPAM meme   Links to online casino's gets you banned !!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2IfJQ9XQAADQOi?format=png&name=900x900)

The statement encapsulates the Russian defensive predicament succinctly: they are compelled to engage in the first line of defense, reserving their second and third lines as backup to advance further. If Ukraine breaches even the second line (let alone the third), it could jeopardize the crucial supply route for the Russian forces occupying Crimea.

Once the initial defenses falter, the situation is bound to escalate rapidly, as there are no significant defenders remaining in the second and third lines to mount any effective resistance.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 30, 2023, 10:40:38 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1685567044073488384
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on July 30, 2023, 12:35:49 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 29, 2023, 11:16:02 PMStill not a lot of info if the UAF is really in Verbovne but the live map did reflect it's contested. 

Many others are not updating because of OPSEC.  This is a critical moment and the Russians don't need any more help.

There was a counterattack attempt at the UAF gains on the trenches, but, you guessed it, the Russians got pasted by their own mines and couldn't advance.  UAF arty did the rest.

Because having maps of their own minefields would just not be russian (at this point in time anyway)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 30, 2023, 12:49:29 PM
Have to love Zelensky's style: "Today is the 522nd day of the so-called 'Special Military Operation', which the Russian leadership thought would last a couple of weeks," he said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66352765
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 30, 2023, 12:58:35 PM
Some ironic echoes of Barbarossa there! -- which Hitler also thought would last three weeks (on two weeks of supplies)!

It would be nice if history didn't repeat itself and go several years of Putler's three week war. But if it did more totally repeat, then Ukraine would be chugging along to see if they could reach Moscow before the western allies...  :RockOn:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 30, 2023, 12:59:49 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 30, 2023, 10:40:38 AMhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1685567044073488384

Ukrainian kitten trench assault training! (Note: could also count in the feel-good thread.  :smitten: )
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 30, 2023, 01:00:49 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on July 29, 2023, 11:16:02 PMThere was a counterattack attempt at the UAF gains on the trenches, but, you guessed it, the Russians got pasted by their own mines and couldn't advance.

Step one: CRAP NO AAAAGGGHHH!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 30, 2023, 01:05:31 PM
Quote from: Windigo on July 30, 2023, 12:35:49 PMBecause having maps of their own minefields would just not be russian (at this point in time anyway)

Hard to have maps with the ways the Russians have been laying mines.  The map is pretty much everything in around and between the trenches.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 30, 2023, 01:07:46 PM
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/29/7413419/

The Ukrainian version of Pravda (which is Russian for "your milage may vary"), reports that Ukraine has obliterated the Chonhar bridge.

At the very least, local photo evidence from ground level shows wreckage blocking road traffic.

If this bridge is truly toasted, at least for military supply purposes, that might be the final main artery into Crimea for Russian supplies. At this point, the rail lines north of the Azov Sea, while not directly interdicted yet (YET!  :cool: ) are under artillery interdiction, and at least one bridge going south from there (near if not at Chonhar) was struck out at the start of the counter-offensive probing ops a few weeks ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 30, 2023, 02:04:04 PM
Right now the Russian High Command is aghast that their own mines would turn on them and blow-up their own troops. They are only supposed to blow-up the enemy! Putin will now have them all shot for Treason. And maybe the bombs are next?  :TimeOut:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 30, 2023, 02:40:58 PM
Hard drone attack on Moscow last night!

Unfortunately I don't have links yet. I know there's dispute over whether the Uks did this, or if it's a Russian false flag on themselves to try to stir up Russian support for losing their war.  :lipsrsealed:

Edited to add, Enforcer has some video this morning:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 30, 2023, 02:47:56 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 30, 2023, 02:40:58 PMHard drone attack on Moscow last night!

Unfortunately I don't have links yet. I know there's dispute over whether the Uks did this, or if it's a Russian false flag on themselves to try to stir up Russian support for losing their war.  :lipsrsealed:

Probably Ukraine.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66352765 
QuoteUkraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned war is coming back to Russia after a drone attack on the capital Moscow.

Mr Zelensky said attacks on Russian territory were an "inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process" of the war between the two countries.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 30, 2023, 02:49:20 PM
Yep, Enforcer quotes him, too, in the video I added.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 30, 2023, 02:53:43 PM
Well, Ukraine must be doing okay with its offensive as the Russians have trotted out Medvedev again to threaten with the nukular stick, again.  https://ca.news.yahoo.com/russias-medvedev-wed-nuclear-weapon-120827390.html  Who's Medvedev you may ask, don't worry, just be impressed that he was lucid enough on a Sunday to make any statement.

Hopefully, should any such order be given the Russian military will forgo doctrine and act in a self-preserving manner as they mostly did with the Wagner rebellion at the end of June. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 30, 2023, 03:10:15 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 30, 2023, 02:04:04 PMRight now the Russian High Command is aghast that their own mines would turn on them and blow-up their own troops. They are only supposed to blow-up the enemy! Putin will now have them all shot for Treason. And maybe the bombs are next?  :TimeOut:

If people weren't dying it'd be funny.

Reminds me of that movie from the 70's, Oh What a Lovely War.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 30, 2023, 03:34:54 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 29, 2023, 04:46:59 PMStep 1: shut down Ukrainian grain again.
Step 2: COMRADES OF THE WORLD, DO YOU NEED GRAIN, LIKE REALLY REALLY BADLY?!
Step 3: profit?
Step 5: win?

More specific details from Business Basics (plus the typical clickbaity title worth ignoring):

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 30, 2023, 06:48:38 PM
Russia is fairly well entrenched in Africa, especially in the Sahel, but the failure of the Black Sea grain deal will really strain goodwill throughout the rest of the continent.  The Business Basics video briefly mentions that India has stopped exporting all but the most expensive grades of rice, Viet Nam has also stopped exporting its rice.  The Canadian bread basket is also having problems this year.  https://winnipeg.citynews.ca/2023/07/24/canadian-crop-farmers-ranching-neighbours-prairie-drought/
QuoteAccording to Agriculture Canada's most recent drought monitor report, 76 per cent of the country's agricultural landscape is either abnormally dry or experiencing moderate to severe drought this summer.
All of these factors will drive up the price of grain, and meat through increased fodder prices, throughout the world, but poorer countries will be the worst effected.  So it is in African states interests to push for the reinstatement of the Black Sea Grain deal or failing that push for a peace settlement as the video indicates.

The Russian presence in Africa does have a role in the war in Ukraine.  https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-putin-wagner-group-gold-smuggling-sanctions-ukraine-moscow-2023-7
QuoteThe report, authored by the UK's foreign affairs committee, accuses the mercenary group of sneaking "significant" amounts of gold out of Sudan. That gold is then used in trade that's boosting Russia's economy, it added, despite the nation being targeted by western sanctions amid Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine.

"Wagner's gold-smuggling operations from Sudan are significant, with one calling them 'critical to Russia's ability to withstand significant sanctions deployed against it for its illegal invasion in Ukraine,'" the report said...
"The Wagner Group funds its brutal operations in part by exploiting natural resources in countries like the Central African Republic and Mali," the Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson said in a statement in June. "The United States will continue to target the Wagner Groups' revenue streams to degrade its expansion and violence in Africa, Ukraine, and anywhere else."

In the Francophone parts of Africa, Russia enjoys popular support mostly due to propaganda distributed by an ex-Nazi Belgian communist politician.  What a mouthful.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64451376
QuoteCalled Russosphère (Russian Sphere), typical posts accuse France of modern-day "colonialism", eulogise Vladimir Putin, and call the Ukrainian army "Nazis" and "Satanists", echoing the official Russian line.

They also heap praise on Russia's Wagner mercenaries - even sharing recruitment information should followers want to join up.

Experts say that such misinformation drives mistrust between African nations and the West, and contributes to a lack of support for Ukraine on the continent.
The article doesn't mention whether counter arguments to the Russian points are being broadcast to the French speaking African population.  The Canadian government with its utility in French and having had no colonial possessions in Africa could take the lead here in countering this disinformation. 

Finally, regarding Niger, ECOWAS (Economic Community of West Africa States has given the coup organizers seven days to reinstate the elected president.   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66353284 
QuoteA statement read out after the summit said that Ecowas had "zero tolerance" for coups.

The regional bloc would "take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order" if its demands were not met within a week.

"Such measures may include the use of force," and military chiefs are to meet "immediately" to plan for an intervention, the statement added.

Senegal, Ghana and Nigeria all field capable armies, but it would most likely be Senegal to do any possible  fighting.  "[ECOWAS] last sanctioned military intervention in 2017, when Senegalese troops were deployed to The Gambia to force long-serving ruler Yahya Jammeh to leave office after he refused to accept defeat in elections."  The Senegalese have a martial reputation, having gained it fighting the Germans in the First World War and in the Fall and Liberation of France. 
I'll refrain from speculating again on Russia's involvement in the coup, despite the crowds praising Russia, waving Russian flags and Prigozhin's comments.  However, should the junta refuse to reinstate the president due to fear of prosecution, greed, whatever; Wagner is in neighbouring Mali and close in the Central African Republic.  (Wagner didn't leave CAR, there was a troop rotation).  I won't bore you with speculation as to that scenario and the presence of French and US military.  In North Africa at least, only the insane make predictions about the future, maybe it is the same in the Sahel as the Sahara.  But, Wagner still wants revenge for what a small US force did to 300 Syrian and Russian forces in 2018, not to mention most of Russia and what is being said about US support for the war in Ukraine.  Certainly, it didn't go well for them last time, but the Russians are proving to be really slow learners.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 30, 2023, 07:01:42 PM
I was just thinking about the western attempts (and anyone else really) at trying to get onto the African demographic train, diplomatically and practically, as reported by the BusBas video, and thinking: well, yes, corruption is going to be a big problem, but it's a VASTLY much bigger problem than everyone but China thinks it is. That's why China's game has been to leverage the corruption in its favor by sending out those sharky loans and then taking control of resources when the loans default, for its Belt and Road (aka Silk Road) initiative which the western Build Back Better initiative was supposed to be competing against.

Now, it doesn't look like that's going to work for China, because fostering Godawful levels of corruption leaves you holding bags full of corruption when things fall apart! -- although, worth noting, that's a big Marxist revolutionary ideological concept: reduce everything to chaos so you can take over and, ahem, build back better. Somehow. Or just loot everything for the guys at the top, while the lootin' is good.  :buck2: But by tautology that leaves rotting corruption at the base of everything you might try to build back.

See also, Lootin' Putin.  :pirate:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 30, 2023, 07:27:30 PM
Microloans work well.

How do you get rid of the corrupt leaders though, especially if they are being backed up by Wagner like in Mali and the CAR?  That will be difficult and take time, sadly you can't send SF raids.  I don't think Prigozhin will go to Africa any time soon though, lest he be snatched in transit or have a visit from the SAS in a lonely place. 

The West is acting on the coup in Niger at least.  https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/niger-loses-aid-western-countries-condemn-coup-2023-07-29/   
QuoteThe European Union and France have cut off financial support to Niger and the United States has threatened to do the same, after military leaders this week announced they had overthrown the democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum.
Ghana also had a diplomatic spat with Burkina Faso last December, calling them out on hiring Wagner mercenaries.  There still aren't Wagner mercenaries in BF.  Happenstance, coincidence? 

Wrong hemisphere?  Maybe, but cutting off smuggled wealth to Russia and ending Prigozhin's utility to Putin would be good things for Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 30, 2023, 10:04:45 PM
Too many players. This is getting as complicated as a Mission Impossible movie.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 30, 2023, 11:19:21 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on July 30, 2023, 10:04:45 PMToo many players. This is getting as complicated as a Mission Impossible movie.

This is what we were expecting though.

Who really felt Ukraine was the end and only goal?


Russia is trying to rebuild an Empire and that means colonial conquest as well. 

They're getting backing from China and India over it.

The Eastern Coalition is a thing, it's not a fantasy, it's a reality and it's here and now.  Europe doesn't want it to exist and America is busy killing itself and we don't want to see it happening but it is.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on July 31, 2023, 03:21:09 AM
Russia, China, and Iran's troll farms play a big role in fomenting dissent throughout the west.  I believe the illegal, Andrey Bezrukov, is the architect of this strategy. He and Yelena Vavilova weren't running around  causing murder and mayhem.  He was looking for ways to bring down the West.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 31, 2023, 07:39:09 AM
The only good news, sort of, is that China and Russia are both collapsing economically due to bad fiscal management (and bad population management in several ways). Trying to partner up economically with South Africa, which is also swirling down the toilet in recent years, was a bad idea, and Brazil isn't much better. They're all looking to India's economy to save them, and thank God India has started side-eyeing that whole arrangement.

I suppose China could start seizing Russian territory to try to save its own implosion if Russia falls apart first, but unless they RADICALLY improve their management strategies (for example, STOP BEING ASSHOLE DICTATORS) China's only real option, especially in the short term, will be to loot any Russian property and resources they get hold of. Which, after all, is the basic Marxist strategy, but good the hell luck with getting much of anything by looting east of the Urals at this point.

Of course, this is why China was hoping to get access rights to the Black Sea by 'helping' Russia (with plenty of Dr. Evil "fingerquotes".) But if China's own government implodes, even if less drastically than Russia's, then that won't help them.


Oh and they all have rusty nukes to play Russian roulette with.  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 31, 2023, 09:03:21 AM
Meanwhile...in Mexico...calls for the War on Drugs to become a hot war - with  American intervention. Just read about this in the NYTimes. Probably deserves its own thread...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 31, 2023, 09:08:56 AM
Also, I didn't think this pic was real, but apparently it is. It is supposedly the body of a Russian soldier imprinted into a dirt road outside of Ukrainian village. Jesus.

(https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/VBnUiJcYKOO6uDzWybfAO_kVdT70ZQFKd5dTyrB4WzMP_gKqYbloAmavxVlyL26MefQS-ysclzovN3ivI4477VbpZ0hILWtNwuo7hIu1TMYxDCN4nWFj-tFmS8hlQCooM0br05ADNXPtjYM-HSCh8PrqpmVmb5zmXO4DbXqWhcpATQ=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/08/01/multimedia/31-THE-MORNING-NL-1-web/31-THE-MORNING-NL-1-web-jumbo.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 31, 2023, 10:18:04 AM
ah yes, a good example of a russian flatnik  :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 31, 2023, 10:28:22 AM
So he's a, 'Good Russian' now eh Star? Poor bastard probably had no idea why he was there or what he was supposed to be doing. I can understand the Ukrainians hatred of Russians for what they've done but this Sum-Bitch wasn't the cause.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 31, 2023, 10:58:23 AM
Or he might have been part of the cause (kids don't rape themselves to death) -- but we don't know.

God'll judge him fairly; some of us will pray for his soul in any case.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 31, 2023, 11:33:45 AM
I truly don't care slash.  after the things Ive seen these bastards do, I really don't.

there are a lot of photos and videos that I haven't posted due to the extreme graphic nature of them.
I really doubt anything of that nature is making across your news feed.  if they were I don't think you
would be so generous.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 31, 2023, 11:47:19 AM
hey slash, did you even think to wonder why none of this guys buddies stopped to pick him up or why no one ever did?  or maybe ask why follow on vehicles never bothered to avoid running him over and over and over and over.
ya...... fuck russia

(https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/VBnUiJcYKOO6uDzWybfAO_kVdT70ZQFKd5dTyrB4WzMP_gKqYbloAmavxVlyL26MefQS-ysclzovN3ivI4477VbpZ0hILWtNwuo7hIu1TMYxDCN4nWFj-tFmS8hlQCooM0br05ADNXPtjYM-HSCh8PrqpmVmb5zmXO4DbXqWhcpATQ=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/08/01/multimedia/31-THE-MORNING-NL-1-web/31-THE-MORNING-NL-1-web-jumbo.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 31, 2023, 12:11:24 PM
in other news, three foreign flagged ships led by an Israeli ship have ignored russias threats and are heading to Ukraine to load grain shipments.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2X_g_zWQAAh2ac?format=jpg&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2X_g_0W8AAuKoV?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 31, 2023, 02:16:17 PM
Looks like some American air escorts helping provide CAP.

Enforcer updates 30 minute ago:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on July 31, 2023, 02:45:18 PM
Some people need to have their asses kicked fatally, no doubt. A lot of people deserve to have fatal ass-kicking, no doubt. "We've all got it coming, kid." -- also, no doubt.

When I was in 5th grade, I was nearly choked to death and simultaenously emasculated by a gang of five other boys who followed the lead of the stronger boy in the group, apparently thinking it would be fun to gang up on a weaker boy. (Also the leader of the attack knew I was sweet on a girl he wanted for himself.)

I think I did pretty well, considering I was ambushed by surprise -- I avoided the emasculation anyway (much to their annoyed surprise), and I would certainly have hurt them as much as I could given any opportunity -- but I wouldn't have survived if an adult hadn't rolled up in a car about a minute into the attack.

Would I have been sorry to cripple or kill any of them? Nope.

Did I want them to suffer forever? Absolutely. Can't say I'm emotionally fond of any troops doing what the Orks have long been proven to often do. That guy in the road might have been one of them. I'll assume he was, for hypothesis sake. Off to the lake of fire with him if so, no problems here!

But I learned long ago (23-1/3 years ago this month  :Nerd:  ) that if I'm not even interested in evildoers, including my personal enemies, coming to be good instead of bad someday, then I'm a doer of injustice myself, insisting on final injustice. And that's my personal responsibility.

I'm not a naturally sympathetic person, much less an empathetic one. But I can still pray for that guy in the road (and all his comrades who ran him over and over), that Justice Himself will bring him (and them) to be just someday, and reconcile them with any and all of his victims, whatever that takes, however long that takes, even into the eons of the eons.

It's certainly easier to pray for him now, than to be charitable to him while he's still alive, all things considered. Anyone who can do that, is a LOT better than I am. But I know I should be better, too, so I do what I can.

Slash and some other guys here know what I'm talking about. The same unquenchable fire of Gehenna salting that guy, is salting me, too, and everyone else. That salting is the best of things, and I can either accept it in my heart or not. I might as well accept it sooner rather than later. None of us is getting away from it. It's easier for many other people than for me; but also easier for me than for many other people, I know. I don't blame anyone for that, that's just how it is sometimes. I'm responsible for the attitude of my own heart, that's all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 31, 2023, 03:29:09 PM
the latest in soviet military hardware.  :Loser:
fyi, those are tilling disks for farming used at armor.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2YjST_XQAcgqAO?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 31, 2023, 03:53:36 PM
I like the hammer and sickle to the left - at least the Russians have stopped trying to hide their neo-Sovietness.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 31, 2023, 03:58:29 PM
how to kill russian btgs in a single picture.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2XF9w7bsAA6xhi?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 31, 2023, 04:15:32 PM
^I'm sure there are 1000s of Russian tankers who are having that image as a nightmare right now.

Have Apaches been sent to Ukraine?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 31, 2023, 05:03:23 PM
no
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 31, 2023, 05:42:17 PM
My sense is that most helicopters in contested Ukrainian airspace are shot down in a hurry.  They still have their uses, but I think this war has proven that, in the absence of comprehensive SEAD and DEAD, you'll experience widespread DFHO (Acronyms are "Suppression of Enemy Air Defense", "Destruction of Enemy Air Defense", and "Destruction of Friendly Helicopters Overhead").

In terms of the picture, I'm with Slash and Gus on this one.  War is Hell.  We never know who's done what, even if we know which side we're rooting for.  That doesn't mean we don't want one side to win, but it does mean that the enthusiastic celebration for the death of an enemy soldier like it's a goal by your favorite side in a World Cup match is off-color.

I can acknowledge that the guy (among many others) had to die if we want Russia to ever stop this war of conquest.  But that doesn't mean that he didn't have a mom and a dad, likely brothers or sisters, maybe even children.  Heck, it doesn't even mean he's a he.  War is Hell.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 31, 2023, 06:09:33 PM
theres a massive performance difference between what being used by the Ukraine and russia and Western equipment.
I'd have to dig around for the interview of Ukrainian Hip pilots after they got trained to fly Blackhawks.
something along the lines of going from a lada to a BMW.  also keep in mind that the first strikes against Iraq
air defense in the first Gulf War were done by Apaches.  no one system is the be all answer but western stuff just
works better and is more survivable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on July 31, 2023, 06:10:43 PM
and I still don't care about the vatnik - mobnik - flatnik - cubenik  life cycle
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on July 31, 2023, 07:28:08 PM
Why no Apaches for Ukraine?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on July 31, 2023, 09:06:03 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 31, 2023, 07:28:08 PMWhy no Apaches for Ukraine?

Generally, we feel that Apaches and attack helicopters in general are only truly viable if the airspace is secure enough for them to operate with air cover.

The Russians have general air superiority and a lot of MANPADS so it's very likely that any we send will become huge priority targets without sufficient protection. 

They'd also require a lot of training and general stripping down to remove classified gear for fear of it getting captured. 

The UAF has been pretty bold and effective operating its own Helicopters so those fears may only be partly founded in reality, but yeah, the general answer to the hesitancy is that we think they'll just get shot down by Russian air and that's not something we want to see paraded around on Russian prime time TV.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on July 31, 2023, 10:13:43 PM
The Apaches fired the opening shots in Desert Storm because we could fly them in low and slow, and they breached the initial line of Iraqi radar stations through which the subsequent stream of attack planes flying decapitation and SEAD missions could nail Iraq.  After those initial decapitation strikes, we spent the next 3 or 4 days flying an extremely heavy concentration of SEAD and DEAD missions, as well as more efforts to go after Iraqi C3I--which was fragile in the first place.

Helicopters still have an application in modern warfare, but only after you've suppressed the enemy air defenses pretty well.  The Ukrainians are nowhere near that.  In the absence of that clear command of the air space over the front, it's much safer to use throw-away observation drones and laser range-finders to guide rockets and artillery shells onto targets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on July 31, 2023, 10:41:48 PM
I actually thought you would approve of my statement Star. You automatically assume it was negative and intended to insult you. How do you know I wasn't agreeing with your opinion of the poor Roadkill Russian? I'm thinking you must be feeling some guilt about the poor guy yourself. Maybe he painted houses like you before he was forced by his government to fight and kill those he did not hate. Maybe he was run over so many times because he committed horrible acts against innocent people. Or maybe he was on the road because he was just trying to get back HOME. You can pick either one you choose to believe, but I don't think we can judge automatically for certain good or bad from thousands of miles away. Nor should we.

Putin's ambitions are the cause of this war not the poor bastard in the mud. He along with people who find joy in the continuing of this killing.  :magnify:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 01, 2023, 12:08:20 AM
yes I read it negatively because of our history.  and no, I feel no guilt about laughing at another flatnik, its not the first one I've seen and it won't be the last.  I have no problem judging him because hes russian and I really really don't like russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 01, 2023, 03:29:16 AM
there are a lot of reasons this stuff costs so much.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/29/ukrainian-tank-losses-diminish-as-polish-technicians-save-more-and-more-damaged-leopard-2s/?sh=4df5c6f45e38
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 01, 2023, 06:38:11 AM
Thanks for the above on the Apaches. I didn't realize that the Russians had as much control of the airspace as they do.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 01, 2023, 07:25:36 AM
If I remember an article posted here some months ago correctly, Russia has a very stand-offish "control" in the air, but still way ahead of what the Uks can currently do. Which is why they're desperate for better fighter platforms.

Meanwhile, I see that my dream of Ork vs Uk farming combat duels is getting closer to reality!

Also, I counted 8 obviously outkitted Longbows in that Apache group, with one copter too obscured behind others to tell, and several others appearing to be capable but not currently kitted up for it. As deadly as that looks, however, it assumes all those choppers got close enough to the targets to shoot; and my ideas about survivability are largely based on video game simulations.  :Nerd:

Worth remembering that our epic destruction of a Wagner-flushed BTG back during the Syrian Operation, was a very fully combined arms exercise, Apaches included.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 01, 2023, 09:41:36 AM
Yes Star, we do have a, 'History' don't we? That's what makes coming here so much fun, being able to speak plainly to each other with a bit of good-natured ribbing thrown in.

I'm thinking when this war is over, the big take away will be the use of drones by both sides. I know ISIS used them in Syria but never like here and now. Both sides use them for everything from recon to bunker-busting, anti-tank, and arty directing. You can't make a move without a drone spotting you, and then you're dead. And so both sides are scrambling for counter measures, and then counter the counter measures. I think this will be as revolutionary to warfare as the first working machine guns and massed use of tanks.

What do the Learned Minds here think?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 01, 2023, 10:07:12 AM
Maybe in its own way even more revolutionary than the first combat aircraft in WW1! -- due to actual and potential lethality + flexibility.

Once the sun EMPs the planet, though, we'll be back to cavalry, swords, pikes, and shot. Like the previously infamous Crimean War!  :twirl:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 01, 2023, 11:44:14 AM
Not me. I could NEVER figure-out how far, 'Half-a-League' is.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 01, 2023, 11:50:51 AM
its 50% of a league.   :cool:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 01, 2023, 12:49:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 01, 2023, 11:50:51 AMits 50% of a league.   :cool:

Give or take...     :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 01, 2023, 12:53:33 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 01, 2023, 10:07:12 AMMaybe in its own way even more revolutionary than the first combat aircraft in WW1! -- due to actual and potential lethality + flexibility.

Once the sun EMPs the planet, though, we'll be back to cavalry, swords, pikes, and shot. Like the previously infamous Crimean War!  :twirl:

I am well prepared for such an eventuality.

As to the war at hand, good news is that geolocated footage has now confirmed the UAF has advanced to the outskirts of Verbove, as I'd heard and suspected two days ago.

They have done an operational pause, which I speculate with some info is at this point them deciding if they should bring the heavy brigades up now, or continue trying pin the increasingly poorly supplied Russians in Robotyne with a hook around the southwest, which would widen the breach and potentially give them better fire control of the Verbove valley with control of the heights on the western reach. 

Either way, the attacks on logistics are telling as they're making sure that the increasingly strung out Russian forces in the valley and heights are stuck in their trenches with limited supply.  The Russians switch to static vs. active defense and the inflexibility of Russian forces to respond on the operational level are doing them no favors right now.  They're essentially just waiting to be overrun.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 01, 2023, 12:57:02 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 01, 2023, 07:25:36 AMIf I remember an article posted here some months ago correctly, Russia has a very stand-offish "control" in the air, but still way ahead of what the Uks can currently do. Which is why they're desperate for better fighter platforms.

Yeah, I think it's really "mutual denial of air superiority" due to the lethality of anti-aircraft platforms in theater, with the Russians having a more decisive denial of air superiority than the Ukrainians (due in part to their fighters' ability to shoot down Ukrainian planes from a long ways off).  Both sides get shots in occasionally (the Russians get more), but they're typically using stand-off munitions with high cost and/or limited accuracy.

QuoteWorth remembering that our epic destruction of a Wagner-flushed BTG back during the Syrian Operation, was a very fully combined arms exercise, Apaches included.

I think somebody here posted a very detailed review of that combat a few months ago.  As I recall, the Wagner group's heavy units weren't obliterated by the airborne forces until AFTER the Russians (who had been denying that they had troops on the ground there) provided reassurance that Russian anti-air assets would not be used. 

Those airborne units were really the modern cavalry charging to the rescue of the heavily outgunned US forces, but they were only released after it was confirmed that nobody would shoot their horses.

I'm not dissing on choppers.  I think they've just proven themselves less useful when the enemy has an abundance of unsuppressed SAMs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 01, 2023, 04:21:55 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 01, 2023, 12:53:33 PMI am well prepared for such an eventuality.

As to the war at hand, good news is that geolocated footage has now confirmed the UAF has advanced to the outskirts of Verbove, as I'd heard and suspected two days ago.

They have done an operational pause, which I speculate with some info is at this point them deciding if they should bring the heavy brigades up now, or continue trying pin the increasingly poorly supplied Russians in Robotyne with a hook around the southwest, which would widen the breach and potentially give them better fire control of the Verbove valley with control of the heights on the western reach. 

Either way, the attacks on logistics are telling as they're making sure that the increasingly strung out Russian forces in the valley and heights are stuck in their trenches with limited supply.  The Russians switch to static vs. active defense and the inflexibility of Russian forces to respond on the operational level are doing them no favors right now.  They're essentially just waiting to be overrun.

On one hand the answer is always going to be the one that favours artillery deployment and effectiveness. On the other hand, doing anything that starves the ruskkies logistics is good too.

I muse what Russia's move is if their land supply routes are totally severed. I anticipate they'll just let them starve.... but what would/could they do in response to this?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 01, 2023, 05:01:56 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 01, 2023, 04:21:55 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 01, 2023, 12:53:33 PMI am well prepared for such an eventuality.

As to the war at hand, good news is that geolocated footage has now confirmed the UAF has advanced to the outskirts of Verbove, as I'd heard and suspected two days ago.

They have done an operational pause, which I speculate with some info is at this point them deciding if they should bring the heavy brigades up now, or continue trying pin the increasingly poorly supplied Russians in Robotyne with a hook around the southwest, which would widen the breach and potentially give them better fire control of the Verbove valley with control of the heights on the western reach. 

Either way, the attacks on logistics are telling as they're making sure that the increasingly strung out Russian forces in the valley and heights are stuck in their trenches with limited supply.  The Russians switch to static vs. active defense and the inflexibility of Russian forces to respond on the operational level are doing them no favors right now.  They're essentially just waiting to be overrun.

On one hand the answer is always going to be the one that favours artillery deployment and effectiveness. On the other hand, doing anything that starves the ruskkies logistics is good too.

I muse what Russia's move is if their land supply routes are totally severed. I anticipate they'll just let them starve.... but what would/could they do in response to this?
Fix Bayonets
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 01, 2023, 05:05:33 PM
Mass surrender or escalate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 01, 2023, 05:40:22 PM
^If it's Russia it will be both mass surrender and escalate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 01, 2023, 05:46:11 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 01, 2023, 05:40:22 PM^If it's Russia it will be both mass surrender and escalate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 01, 2023, 06:13:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 01, 2023, 05:40:22 PM^If it's Russia it will be both mass surrender and escalate.

It'll be time to call these guys...

(https://i.ibb.co/zNZrF0S/Michael-Golden-Oktober-Guard-Pinup-GI-Joe-Yearbook-1369113674.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 01, 2023, 06:26:37 PM
^Damn son...it's been a while since anyone whipped out the October Guard. Well done  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 01, 2023, 06:34:44 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 01, 2023, 06:13:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 01, 2023, 05:40:22 PM^If it's Russia it will be both mass surrender and escalate.

It'll be time to call these guys...

(https://i.ibb.co/zNZrF0S/Michael-Golden-Oktober-Guard-Pinup-GI-Joe-Yearbook-1369113674.jpg)

Didn't they just capture the weather dominator from Cobra?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 01, 2023, 06:52:11 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on August 01, 2023, 06:34:44 PMDidn't they just capture the weather dominator from Cobra?

Probably.  We took out Cobra in the early 00's.

(https://i.ibb.co/0VqSqLB/05-02-2003-saddam.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 01, 2023, 07:16:05 PM
Well, the guy in the foreground doesn't need the jetpack anymore, but I can think of someone who does need such a hand-me down.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 01, 2023, 07:25:20 PM
Haven't you guys seen the latest?  Cobra Commander got away (AGAIN) and most of the Joes were killed.  They even got Channing Tatum.  Or Tatum Channing.  Or whoever that guy was who played Duke.

It's all on The Rock's shoulders now.  At least Lady Jaye is still alive and kicking.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 01, 2023, 07:27:48 PM
I couldn't watch anymore after CovergirlTM bought the farm.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 01, 2023, 07:41:22 PM
GI Joe deserves its own thread...which should stop around 1989  :Nerd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 01, 2023, 08:45:19 PM
Heck no, Larry Hama recovered the series and kicked ass with it some years ago, maybe under IDW (I don't recall for sure, and I'm too lazy to look). It was VERY well received.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 01, 2023, 08:47:16 PM
Meanwhile, I'm wondering if Russia might not let its leftovers in Crimea starve/surrender instead of withdrawal, for political sympathy points (as they see it), at least internally. They have odd ways of thinking global strategy. But maybe more importantly, their logistics in-line are so screwed over that they might actually be BETTER off with fewer troops (especially exhausted ones) to support!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 01, 2023, 08:50:38 PM
^The hell you say.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 01, 2023, 09:52:43 PM
Yeah, actually I've been plotting that way for more than a year now.  :cool: --if you're talking about them needing to keep troop counts low at the front due to their terrible logistic and other C&C issues, stretching far into the backfield.

I could imagine them taking this opportunity to plausibly get rid of troops they can't even support on their own interior lines, and roll the dice on public perception -- God knows they've been doing THAT almost every day since before they invaded already anyway. A lot of their choices make more sense once factoring in the need to keep troop support relatively low since, let's say, around summer last year.

If they're gonna mobilize fresh troops -- and there are articles talking about draft age shifting, even up to 70 years old for senior commanders, and dragooning civilians in occupied areas to send new warm bodies to the front line north of Azov -- they have GOT to get rid of logistic drag one way or another. Easier to let them rot on the vine and then try pointing the finger at the eeeeeevil Ukrainian gay Jewish Nazis or whatever.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 01, 2023, 10:25:46 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 01, 2023, 07:25:20 PMHaven't you guys seen the latest?  Cobra Commander got away (AGAIN) and most of the Joes were killed.  They even got Channing Tatum.  Or Tatum Channing.  Or whoever that guy was who played Duke.

It's all on The Rock's shoulders now.  At least Lady Jaye is still alive and kicking.

Watch to the end of the new Transformers movie.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 01, 2023, 10:39:05 PM
Don't tell me they're doing crossover movies now!  I thought Wolfman vs. Dracula was as bad as it could get.

I'd say that the Russians figured out a way to keep on fighting in Leningrad for a couple years.  The Ukrainians are still a long ways from cutting off the Russians in Crimea.  But if they're able to do that before the fall rains come...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 01, 2023, 11:59:32 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 01, 2023, 10:39:05 PMDon't tell me they're doing crossover movies now!  I thought Wolfman vs. Dracula was as bad as it could get.

Ok, I won't tell you that except...I kinda just told you that.

Hey, fits for Transformers yeah?  More than meets the eye!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 12:01:49 AM
its annoying how todays news cycle has smothered info from Ukraine.
some kind of naval engagement took place and still waiting on confirmation.
seemed to be drones against patrol ships.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 02, 2023, 12:28:05 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 12:01:49 AMits annoying how todays news cycle has smothered info from Ukraine.
some kind of naval engagement took place and still waiting on confirmation.
seemed to be drones against patrol ships.

Yes, there was another drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet near Sevestapol using drones. 

No idea about what truly happened due to opsec.  The Russian MOD has been the only one to even mention it:

"Last night, the Ukrainian armed forces made an unsuccessful attempt using three unmanned surface vessels to attack the Black Sea Fleet patrol ships Sergey Kotov and Vasily Bykov, which are carrying out shipping control tasks in the southwestern part of the Black Sea, 340 kilometres southwest of Sevastopol."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 01:06:33 AM
well something took a hit.  early morning russian reports were at leat 1 dead and 4 or 5 wounded.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 02, 2023, 07:16:45 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 01:06:33 AMwell something took a hit.  early morning russian reports were at least 1 dead and 4 or 5 wounded.

In Russia, that is un-success drone attack! By drone!  :pirate:

Regarding Leningrad: true, it's easy to forget that as bad as Stalingrad was, Leningrad was even worse despite nowhere near as much fighting nearby and in it.

But I'm not sure the Crimean Russian occupiers of today have the fortitude to hold out in Godawful siege situations. Despite Russian propaganda, it'll become clear the Uks aren't Nazis -- or at least not in the sense required -- and plenty of civilians in Crimea may be prepared to welcome the Ukrainians, and the West by extension, with at least grudging relief. Maybe better.

I fully expect Crimea civilians will be the key to whether any occupying troops in the area, who are willing to try waiting it out, will be able to bunker down successfully for as long as it takes -- or not. But first comes the question of how many Russian troops will care to try, and for how long.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 02, 2023, 10:19:21 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 02, 2023, 07:16:45 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 01:06:33 AMwell something took a hit.  early morning russian reports were at least 1 dead and 4 or 5 wounded.

In Russia, that is un-success drone attack! By drone!  :pirate:

Regarding Leningrad: true, it's easy to forget that as bad as Stalingrad was, Leningrad was even worse despite nowhere near as much fighting nearby and in it.

But I'm not sure the Crimean Russian occupiers of today have the fortitude to hold out in Godawful siege situations. Despite Russian propaganda, it'll become clear the Uks aren't Nazis -- or at least not in the sense required -- and plenty of civilians in Crimea may be prepared to welcome the Ukrainians, and the West by extension, with at least grudging relief. Maybe better.

I fully expect Crimea civilians will be the key to whether any occupying troops in the area, who are willing to try waiting it out, will be able to bunker down successfully for as long as it takes -- or not. But first comes the question of how many Russian troops will care to try, and for how long.

Which brings up a very delicious scenario of the west offering/bringing in humanitarian aide into Crimea.... with conditions LoL.

[insert Dr. Evil laugh]

damn that could get really messy though
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 02, 2023, 10:38:22 AM
Frankly, I'm surprised there's as much info out there as we have. You'd think both sides would be VERY tight-Lipped about anything going on good or bad. And to the extent they are, all we have is pro or anti posts, videos and blogs. I guess this reflects the desire of both sides to win the Public Image War, feed the international appetite for constant new news, and probably they know it's almost impossible to hide  shit from everyone anyway.

I thought the Russkies had moved a whole bunch of new Russian settlers into the Crimea since they took over. Any idea if true and how many?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 02, 2023, 11:29:50 AM
I believe there was a retired senior military officer that talked about the blockading of Crimea, with the Red Cross evacuating the civilian population.  I thought it might be Maj. General Mick Ryan or Colonel de Bretton-Gordon but I can't find it now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 02, 2023, 11:56:02 AM
Here's an article from the Moscow Times talking about back-channel US-Russian conversations, and allegedly interviewing a US source with involved in the talks.  I'm putting it out on this board for everyone's situational awareness, only.  It very well may be a piece of disinformation, or, more likely, an attempt by a faction in the US to push a certain viewpoint.  Or it could be legit.  Or not.  In any case, I found a couple of useful nuggets in the article:

1. "it was apparent that the greatest issue was that the Russians were unable to articulate what exactly they wanted and needed. "They don't know how to define victory or defeat. In fact, some of the elites to whom we spoke had never wanted the war in the first place, even saying it had been a complete mistake," he said. "But now they're at war — suffering a humiliating defeat is not an option for these guys."
2. "In fact, we emphasized that the U.S. needs, and will continue to need, a strong enough Russia to create stability along its periphery. The U.S. wants a Russia with strategic autonomy in order for the U.S. to advance diplomatic opportunities in Central Asia. We in the U.S. have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world."
3.  "But the former official expressed a sense of impasse in the ongoing secret talks. "In Russian diplomacy, everything is now linked, all built around the locus of the war making it impossible to do any productive forms of diplomacy." The problem was less with the Russian elite as a whole than it was with Putin specifically, he explained. "Putin is the major block to all progress," he said. "The U.S. administration has made at least  one attempt to speak with the Kremlin but Putin himself refused." For this reason, he argued, Washington "should begin reaching out to the anti-war Russian elite and begin making progress with them."


 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/former-us-official-shares-details-of-secret-track-15-diplomacy-with-moscow-a81972
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 02, 2023, 12:00:26 PM
Belarus appears to want to royally piss off both Poland and Romania with Danube attacks, helicopter incursions and border violations today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 02, 2023, 12:04:50 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 02, 2023, 10:38:22 AMFrankly, I'm surprised there's as much info out there as we have. You'd think both sides would be VERY tight-Lipped about anything going on good or bad. And to the extent they are, all we have is pro or anti posts, videos and blogs. I guess this reflects the desire of both sides to win the Public Image War, feed the international appetite for constant new news, and probably they know it's almost impossible to hide  shit from everyone anyway.

I've been surprised by that too.  I'd always imagined that Russia had tighter control over state-run media.

What I came to realize was that they DO have that control.  For whatever reason, nobody is allowed to talk badly about Putin or about the decision to go to war.  They ARE allowed to criticize the generals and the conduct of the war.

I'm assuming that this is mandated by Putin because he doesn't want any rivals who might rise up to replace him from the ranks of the military.  I'm assuming it's also to create some space between him and whatever generals he chooses to scapegoat if he has to settle for a less than perfect outcome.

Speculating on Putin's motives--or even his rationality--at this point seems pointless.  All I can conclude is that Russian media controls are working but their scope has changed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 02, 2023, 12:16:18 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on August 02, 2023, 11:56:02 AMHere's an article from the Moscow Times talking about back-channel US-Russian conversations, and allegedly interviewing a US source with involved in the talks.  I'm putting it out on this board for everyone's situational awareness, only.  It very well may be a piece of disinformation, or, more likely, an attempt by a faction in the US to push a certain viewpoint.  Or it could be legit.  Or not.  In any case, I found a couple of useful nuggets in the article:

1. "it was apparent that the greatest issue was that the Russians were unable to articulate what exactly they wanted and needed. "They don't know how to define victory or defeat. In fact, some of the elites to whom we spoke had never wanted the war in the first place, even saying it had been a complete mistake," he said. "But now they're at war — suffering a humiliating defeat is not an option for these guys."
2. "In fact, we emphasized that the U.S. needs, and will continue to need, a strong enough Russia to create stability along its periphery. The U.S. wants a Russia with strategic autonomy in order for the U.S. to advance diplomatic opportunities in Central Asia. We in the U.S. have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world."
3.  "But the former official expressed a sense of impasse in the ongoing secret talks. "In Russian diplomacy, everything is now linked, all built around the locus of the war making it impossible to do any productive forms of diplomacy." The problem was less with the Russian elite as a whole than it was with Putin specifically, he explained. "Putin is the major block to all progress," he said. "The U.S. administration has made at least  one attempt to speak with the Kremlin but Putin himself refused." For this reason, he argued, Washington "should begin reaching out to the anti-war Russian elite and begin making progress with them."


 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/former-us-official-shares-details-of-secret-track-15-diplomacy-with-moscow-a81972

IMO #2 is made up and extremely artificial, a panacea/out for Russian elite as the war continues to go sideways for them. If/when the UAF regains all previous territory, what's the end game for Russia? Why #2 of course. This of course will require some sort of aid as russia's economy is/will be even more of a shit show after this.

Any sort of stalemate, or even a russian win now IMO is so pyrrhic for the Russian's they will be a dead man walking.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 02, 2023, 12:51:28 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 01:06:33 AMwell something took a hit.  early morning russian reports were at leat 1 dead and 4 or 5 wounded.

You know how Russian MOD reports are. 

According to them the Moskva is fine and undergoing a submersible conversion refit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 01:39:45 PM
the info was picked up from a radio call between a helicopter and shore, possibly a medivac flight for the wounded.
russia also stated that all drones were destroyed  :rolleyes:
which of course they would be if they hit their targets.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 02, 2023, 02:08:51 PM
Comrade, all drones were successfully intercepted by the hulls of our glorious naval vessels.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 02, 2023, 02:36:32 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 02, 2023, 10:38:22 AMFrankly, I'm surprised there's as much info out there as we have. You'd think both sides would be VERY tight-Lipped about anything going on good or bad. And to the extent they are, all we have is pro or anti posts, videos and blogs. I guess this reflects the desire of both sides to win the Public Image War, feed the international appetite for constant new news, and probably they know it's almost impossible to hide  shit from everyone anyway.

I thought the Russkies had moved a whole bunch of new Russian settlers into the Crimea since they took over. Any idea if true and how many?
Found this article on the water problems in Crimea in 2020 (from a Ukrainian site).
https://www.unian.info/economics/without-water-occupied-crimea-turning-into-a-desert-11163674.html

quote:"For all six years they haven't been saving water at all. Fir all six years, our reservoirs have been drying up... They didn't want to spoil the picture of the 'Russian world'," says Edem Dudakov.

At the same time, people were urged to move en masse to the peninsula from mainland Russia. "Approximately 350,000 people – military, their families – are those special kinds of people who were relocated here with great benefits for the purchase of real estate, etc.," says Dudakov.

At least 350,000 new residents is an impressive figure for Crimea. That approximately equals the entire population of Simferopol. That is, another big city was added to Crimea. But it was not about savings. On the contrary, new construction sites emerged, including military bases. And, of course, they all needed water.

Wikipedia says the 2021 Russian census showed Crimea with a total population of 1,934,630.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 02, 2023, 03:26:39 PM
Ahhh yes water.... the necessity of life and the mother of all other resources utilized my man.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 04:28:45 PM
Ahhh yes water beer.... the necessity of life and the mother of all other resources utilized my man.

fixed
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 02, 2023, 04:34:23 PM
you would pour beer over freshly forged iron? Maybe 2nd hand beer...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 04:44:00 PM
use coors light, its basically water.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 02, 2023, 05:33:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 04:44:00 PMuse coors light, its basically water.

I agree..... great when ice cold

Speaking of light beer, I almost never buy it**, but when I heard about all the Maga's losing their shit over Bud Light... I bought a cube of it to say "fuck you" to my least liked people. Did similar with Carhart too.

** I also never buy beer over 7-8% now.... it gets you in trouble very quickly and when you realize it.... too fucking late my friend.  :beermug[1]:  :beermug[1]:  :beermug[1]:  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 02, 2023, 05:37:23 PM
When asked about a possible war with NATO - Putin Says they are prepared for any scenario (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/putin-on-a-possible-war-with-nato-we-are-prepared-for-any-scenario/ar-AA1eFG48?ocid=socialshare&cvid=449c91dd33d84ac6bb58e2b9ba3cddcd&ei=46)


No you are not Mr. Putin.... no you are not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 02, 2023, 10:05:25 PM
Thanks for that info Bobarossa.  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 03, 2023, 12:33:43 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 02, 2023, 04:44:00 PMuse coors light, its basically water.

30 years ago, when I was living in Denmark, a Danish friend of mine told me the following joke:

Q: "What do American beer and sex in a canoe have in common?"

A: "They're both f&$%ing close to water!"

But the first time she told me this joke, she was really drunk, and the question came out "What do American beer and sex have in common?"  Me and my American house-brother spent the next two weeks wondering, "Is it because they all live on a peninsula so they're surrounded by water?  Do they do things differently in Denmark?"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 03, 2023, 08:15:04 AM
My younger daughter thought this was the funniest thing ever when she was 12 and we were at a Yankees spring training game in Tampa:

A guy had a beer vendor come over and when he asked what kind of beer he was selling the vendor said 'Coors Light' and the guy answered 'Oh I'm sorry I thought you were selling beer.'

She still laughs at that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 03, 2023, 08:39:08 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 02, 2023, 12:04:50 PMWhat I came to realize was that they DO have that control.  For whatever reason, nobody is allowed to talk badly about Putin or about the decision to go to war.  They ARE allowed to criticize the generals and the conduct of the war.

Which is why that Moscow Times article was so surprising to me.  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 03, 2023, 11:48:09 AM
Damn..... HIMARS are some seriously deadly kit.

OUCH (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/devastating-himars-attack-russia-loses-hundreds-of-soldiers/ar-AA1eJ90f?ocid=socialshare&cvid=3c2355c2a35c4664bf926afd49d4130e&ei=7)

I saw earlier reports, but it now seems much more confirmed now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 03, 2023, 12:09:57 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 03, 2023, 08:39:08 AMWhich is why that Moscow Times article was so surprising to me.  :huh:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/page/moscow-times

The Moscow Times is Russia's leading, independent English-language media outlet. Our team of Russian and English journalists provide readers across the world with breaking news, engaging stories and balanced reporting about the largest country on Earth.

As a result of legislation on "fake news" passed by the Russian parliament in March 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine, The Moscow Times has relocated its journalists abroad and opened a temporary newsroom in Yerevan, Armenia. In addition, we have taken a series of steps to protect our staff. Until safe to do otherwise, some articles may appear without bylines or, at the discretion of editors, under a pseudonym.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 03, 2023, 08:36:04 PM
Stars' naval battle "Russia's Boats Fought a Deadly Battle With Ukraine's Robots. No One Knows Who Won."
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/russias-boats-fought-deadly-battle-135500830.html

ISW also mentioned it a few days ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 04, 2023, 08:21:36 AM
Ah, thanks for the MoscTimes info Pete!  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 04, 2023, 09:24:36 AM
"Russian ship hit in Novorossiysk, Black Sea drone attack, Ukraine sources say"
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66402046

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 04, 2023, 09:57:03 AM
450Kg of dynamite reportedly in the drone boat....  almost 1000 pounds.

Could be a good boom depending on the potency (10-90% range of nitroglycerine).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2023, 10:38:21 AM
I like big booms and cannot lie!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 04, 2023, 10:48:53 AM
Video!
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66402046
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2023, 10:50:05 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1687413501097123840
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2023, 10:55:14 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1687356280069820416
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2023, 10:59:34 AM
 :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1687358900079587329
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 04, 2023, 11:25:06 AM
[Deleted: Star beat me to it....]
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 04, 2023, 11:36:51 AM
^Technically I beat Star to it with the BBC link on the previous page but who's counting  :twirl:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 04, 2023, 11:48:26 AM
Quote from: Gusington on August 04, 2023, 11:36:51 AM^Technically I beat Star to it with the BBC link on the previous page but who's counting  :twirl:
Sigh.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2023, 02:41:02 PM
Ukrainians are some cheeky fuckers!
love this.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2q8lNBWIAEGBon?format=png&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2023, 02:48:16 PM
please comrade, try the soup

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-officers-poisoned-military-celebration-report-1817341?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=IgorSushkoTwitter
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 04, 2023, 04:23:33 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2023, 02:48:16 PMplease comrade, try the soup

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-officers-poisoned-military-celebration-report-1817341?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=IgorSushkoTwitter

oof, what a way to go.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2023, 07:18:38 PM
seems that pesky bridge is getting smacked around some more.  :RockOn:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2023, 07:30:23 PM
and some more of the ship that didnt get hit by a drone.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1687400856881188864
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 04, 2023, 11:58:32 PM
theyre gonna run out of money

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-economy-exclusive-idAFKBN2ZF0D4
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 05, 2023, 01:21:39 AM
and the tanker strike

https://twitter.com/i/status/1687691949254361091

winning the naval war without a navy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 05, 2023, 09:49:25 AM
I'm waiting for somebody to post footage of Ukrainian X-wings destroying the Russian Death Star.  That'll be cool!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 05, 2023, 12:52:51 PM
Well this looks very ugly, and will obviously cause a shit-storm in regards to the time that Russia had for field engineering.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/05/ukraine-russia-vladimir-sergienko-afd-delay-tanks-support/ 
QuoteVladimir Sergienko, a naturalised German citizen who was born in Ukraine, travelled to Moscow on at least two occasions to allegedly meet a handler and discuss plans to use legal tricks to delay German military support to Ukraine, Der Spiegel reported on Friday, citing leaked emails and text messages between the pair.

Mr Sergienko, 52, works as a translator for an AfD MP and has access to Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, and is said to have excellent connections inside the Moscow political elite.
...
Email and phone correspondence seen by the German magazine reportedly showed Mr Sergienko apparently working on a plan to help the AfD draft a legal complaint against Olaf Scholz's policy of supporting Kyiv with heavy weaponry.

"The government's job will be made more difficult. It's a win-win situation," Mr Sergienko wrote to his contact in one correspondence, saying that he needed financial assistance of up to €25,000 (£21,624) a month to help with legal fees.

Following up on one meeting, the contact in Moscow asked whether there has been "progress on the active measures" to which Mr Sergienko replied that "it's not easy but we are making progress".
...
No action was taken and he has said the money was for relatives living in Russia who are cut off from the global financial system.

Looks like it falls short of treason and espionage and is in the realm of lawfare.  I don't want arbitrariness in Western laws but our adversaries, or if you want to call them competitors, are exploiting loopholes wherever they can find them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 05, 2023, 03:07:14 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 05, 2023, 09:49:25 AMI'm waiting for somebody to post footage of Ukrainian X-wings destroying the Rebel Death Star.  That'll be cool!

soon

(https://images.happyinktee.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/10090801/9.Men-black-2-tshirt.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 05, 2023, 10:40:26 PM
I think Pres Z said today that F-16 training will start in Denmark later this month. So that's like an X-wing.

Rejoice comrades! -- the heroic T-55s have arrived on the front line to struggle against the Nazis breaking through the line!

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1687877874353577984?s=20

Behold the genius cage which successfully helped this veteran tank cope with the Nazi drone attack!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 05, 2023, 10:56:27 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 05, 2023, 10:40:26 PMI think Pres Z said today that F-16 training will start in Denmark later this month. So that's like an X-wing.

Not really. 

Most of the F-16's Ukraine are getting are F16A's with the MLU. 

That's not as capable as the F-16 we expect and know, the F16C Block 50.

As a combat platform the Su-35 is much more effective and dangerous than the F16A.  If Ukraine doesn't have access to the Datalink capabilities that were added in the MLU variant the old A's are even less capable.

Ukraine would be far better off getting the Gripen in decent numbers, and that may happen.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 06, 2023, 08:32:45 AM
iykyk

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F20rMjeXsAI-6if?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 06, 2023, 09:13:58 AM
opps

https://twitter.com/i/status/1688184240846876672
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 06, 2023, 02:32:01 PM
The coup leaders in Niger have asked Wagner for aid. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/05/niger-junta-wagner-group-mali-mohamed-bazoum-ecowas/
QuoteCoup leaders in Niger have called for help from Russia's Wagner mercenaries after neighbouring countries threatened military intervention if the country's ousted president is not restored by Sunday.

Gen Salifou Mody, one of the Nigerien officers leading the coup, made the request on a visit to neighbouring Mali, the Associated Press reported, citing a Western military official and three Malian sources.

Zeihan has a great take on what will happen in Niger and how the French will come into conflict with Russia. Thanks JasonP for introducing me to Zeihan's work.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 06, 2023, 03:03:52 PM
 :ROFL:   fucking russians

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F23mgxqXcAAsw8d?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 06, 2023, 04:20:48 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 05, 2023, 10:56:27 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 05, 2023, 10:40:26 PMI think Pres Z said today that F-16 training will start in Denmark later this month. So that's like an X-wing.

Not really. 

Most of the F-16's Ukraine are getting are F16A's with the MLU. 

That's not as capable as the F-16 we expect and know, the F16C Block 50.

As a combat platform the Su-35 is much more effective and dangerous than the F16A.  If Ukraine doesn't have access to the Datalink capabilities that were added in the MLU variant the old A's are even less capable.

Ukraine would be far better off getting the Gripen in decent numbers, and that may happen.

Yeah, the bad news is that the F-16s they're getting aren't terribly modern or fancy and require a much larger logistical tail than the Gripens. 

The good news is that the F-16s they're getting are plentiful, easily obtained from existing surplus stocks of other countries, and there are abundant inventories of spare parts scattered throughout NATO arsenals.  Plane for plane, these F-16s won't be game changers.  But they do represent a concrete step forward in transitioning the Ukrainian military to aerial weapons platforms that can be maintained and supplied indefinitely.

I think of them more like an aerial version of the Leopard 1s that the Ukrainians are getting than the Leopard 2s.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 06, 2023, 04:27:50 PM
I think the important question is:  Can they fire missiles from similar ranges as the Ruskies?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 06, 2023, 05:33:01 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on August 06, 2023, 04:27:50 PMI think the important question is:  Can they fire missiles from similar ranges as the Ruskies?

Depends on which variant of the AMRAAM we send.

The R-77 in general has a bit longer operational range but it's not as good in most other ways that really count.

In combat the AMRAAM would be the missile I'd put my money on.

The issue will be what kinds of situational awareness Ukrainian pilots will have vs their Russian opponents when they inevitably try to challenge them in the air.

Part of what makes the F-16 such a beast is the datalink system and its ability to integrate with E-3's, ground radar and even other fighters to give the pilot a very highly accurate picture of the battlefield. 

Russians have a much less capable equivalent that gives a much weaker picture of the battlefield to pilots.

So, under ideal circumstances NATO jets like the F16A with MLU will see and identify the enemy faster from further away and will be able to engage even if they go cold with their own radar.

The problem here is that Ukraine has no datalink unless we provide some clandestine help with some E-3's in neutral airspace.  Russia has for its part said that NATO letting Ukrainians plug into datalink will be an act of war with their typical saber rattling so it might be something we hesitate to do.

Without that functionality their pilots will have to do things the old fashioned way, and with the F-16A's weaker than average radar, they may not really be able to engage at the same effective ranges the Russians will.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 07, 2023, 08:26:48 AM
Quote from: bobarossa on August 06, 2023, 04:27:50 PMI think the important question is:  Can they fire missiles from similar ranges as the Ruskies?

Ward Carroll and Justin Bronk dove into great detail on this one a while back.  The primary AAM that the Russians are using to suppress Ukrainian jets these days is their long-range missile (too lazy to research the number, but it's got longer range than the Phoenix).  The F-16 has some decent AAMs, but they're intended to be fired from up high.

I can dig up the video link if you want.  They definitely suggested that the Grippen was a better fit, but there don't seem to be many Grippens available.  There are a ton of older F-16s available.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 07, 2023, 10:24:50 AM
Possibly relevant from another thread: the Ukranian techno-trance scene has an unusual number of hot babe-jockeys...

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Ukrainian+techno+trance+2023
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 07, 2023, 02:20:47 PM
I would imagine its because the men of that age of otherwise busy at the moment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 07, 2023, 03:52:18 PM
sometime around lunch today this was an apartment building and restaurant.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F286iCPX0AEqzpy?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 07, 2023, 03:56:04 PM
and theyre still so fucking dumb!  :ROFL:
have to click the link.  dumb vatnik fires an rpg like a rifle and blows his right shoulder out with the backblast.  :idiot2:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1688652847410270208
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 08, 2023, 12:05:56 PM
Rumours of the Ukraine getting something called the Taurus from the Germans. A 500 Km range, 400+ Kg warhead, air launched cruise missile.... damn!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 08, 2023, 12:56:57 PM
Yup.  It's basically a Storm Shadow (like the UK and the French have already shared) but with a bigger/better engine. 

The warhead is different than the Storm Shadow--same size, just a different construction.  Some people say it might be better at blowing up bridges, some people say it might not be.  The US has been very leery about sharing weapons that can be used to hit targets on Russian soil.

Of course, since Russia annexed 90% of the occupied Ukrainian territory (and a fair swath of unoccupied territory), I'm not sure how that is working any more. 

The US got a lot of blowback for not providing ATACMS early in the war.  While that might be justified, they've quietly since provided other (more modern) warhead types that seem to be as good or better. 

The advent of the Storm Shadows has given the Ukrainians longer reach, although the fact that they are air-deployed means that they are typically fired from further behind front lines than ground-based missiles might be. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 08, 2023, 02:22:49 PM
Anyone ever read anything about the switchblade? It got hype early on, but nothing about its actual use. They probably were all used in like the first month.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 08, 2023, 03:44:03 PM
I think they're still being used but Ukrainian video release is pretty selective for all kinds of valid reasons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 08, 2023, 03:52:23 PM
another one added to the club!  :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3BuqjSXEA4n4Ly?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2023, 07:04:04 AM
things in moscow go boom!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1689219825896144896
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2023, 07:11:27 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1689221480339447808
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 09, 2023, 08:31:43 AM
Telegraph says it's a night vision factory.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/09/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-counter-offensive-kyiv/

Well, I know what the chair did to earn its hat and we all know what the shark did.  What exactly did the dolphin do, and was it on porpoise? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2023, 09:09:01 AM
supposedly the dolphin tried drowning a russian woman
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 09, 2023, 10:44:39 AM
Seems like Russia is trying to do something and UAF are making them pay the price... 800 dead in a single day? JFC!!!! Haven't read where all the blood is being spilled, just read about the number... UAF OPSEC is good.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 09, 2023, 12:38:17 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 09, 2023, 10:44:39 AMSeems like Russia is trying to do something and UAF are making them pay the price... 800 dead in a single day? JFC!!!! Haven't read where all the blood is being spilled, just read about the number... UAF OPSEC is good.



Most of it's on the southern flank, especially where the breach was formed near Verbove.  Like I expected the Russians launched large and severe counterattacks in an attempt to relieve Robotyne and push the UAF out of Verbove.   They also made a large push around Staromyorsk.

The result was that the UAF decisively crushed those attacks, and now it looks as if they have Robotnye under their operational control.  The policy after the initial breach seemed to have been to pause, consolidate and await a counterattack in order to crush it and then move to fully secure the major towns anchoring the works.

The UAF also made another crossing of the Dniper in Kherson which opens up two beachheads.  These are still in very marshy territory and hard to supply, but they have the Russian panicking.  I'd be surprised if the UAF didn't cross with more than a couple hundred men or less, but the Russians are reacting, at least in media, like it was freaking D-Day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 09, 2023, 02:55:06 PM
I guess there's no way to know whether stuff going on around Verbove is a pinprick or more of a crack in the dam.  That seems to be the million dollar question.

Any time a Ukrainian attack in this trench warfare doesn't result in much change on the battlefield map in 10 days, I tend to get pretty pessimistic about the strategic impact.  I hope I'm proven wrong.

Tactical successes are always nice.  They have to be turned into operational successes to move the needle much.  The introduction of SCALP/Storm Shadows seems to have accelerated some of the Russians' logistical woes.  If the dam is going to break, it'll be a lot more effective to see it happen before Fall weather turns nasty.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 09, 2023, 09:35:34 PM
I agree. The UAF has probably another 60 days to do whatever it's going to do before General Fall arrives with rain and mud. I believe they would be much further along if they'd gotten all the Bridging and Engineering equipment the West agreed to send them. I think a Winter Offensive would be unthinkable for both sides after all the losses of the Summer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 09, 2023, 11:11:03 PM
at the rate the UAF is burning through russian equipment they might actually be down to T-34/85s by next spring.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 10, 2023, 09:55:03 AM
The last major phase of the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region is imminent. 

The Ukrainian MOD has confirmed that the Russians have shifted the axis of attack to the north and are massing for a huge push towards Kupiansk.  This axis has seen a lot more success than the regularly rolled back thrusts from the center axis from Svatove. 

Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of Kupiansk and now need to prepare to meet the attack as this will be the last chance for the Russians to breach the Oskil reservoir and roll back the UAF's gains from last years counter offensive before the first snows. 

Chances for the UAF look good, the Russians should gain solid ground early through sheer weight of numbers but they'll quickly begin to meet fortified natural obstacles as they get closer to the city. 

Crossing fortified estuaries backed by urban areas will potentially make Bakhmut look like a cake walk, but only if the UAF has enough forces to solidly defend there while still trying to stay on the offensive elsewhere.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 10, 2023, 10:31:21 AM
I'm not too worried about Ukraine's lack of forward progress per se so far: the Russians have been throwing rear-line reserves to the front defensive line pell mell to keep Ukraine from cracking it, and they're rapidly running out of reserves (not even counting refusals to go to or back to the defensive line).

I'm more worried about Ukrainian troop losses, but they're playing to minimize those as much as possible under the circumstances.

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 09, 2023, 02:55:06 PMI guess there's no way to know whether stuff going on around Verbove is a pinprick or more of a crack in the dam.  That seems to be the million dollar question.

For the Russians at this time, a pinprick through the defense could easily become a crack in the dam.

I can't recall at the moment, but how's the crossing far south into Crimea itself going? I got the impression that it's mainly for 'demonstration' purposes, and not meant (or supported) for going very far other than establishing and holding a beachhead -- for now -- and that the Russians were scrambling around in the area unable to put together a sufficient response (for now). But I don't recall hearing anything more in recent days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 10, 2023, 10:35:54 AM
Hm, at least the Russians will enjoy relatively interior lines of supply and support there. Ludicrously bad by normal standards, but by current local standards more like a dream situation than a nightmare!

Yet.

(So many things the Orks could have done but for political/promotional reasons didn't which I'm just as glad for. Arguably they should have focused their main counter-counter-(counter??)-attack on Karkiv from the beginning even if they had to temporarily cede the area north of Azov and hunker down in Crimea on starvation supply for a while.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 10, 2023, 10:46:18 AM
Wasn't Kupiansk the Capital of Ukraine in the old Soviet era? I wonder if this factors into their plans at all, or is it just an important Communications Center? I bet an updated version of Manstein's  'Back-Hand Blow' would work here?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 10, 2023, 10:58:25 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 10, 2023, 10:46:18 AMWasn't Kupiansk the Capital of Ukraine in the old Soviet era? I wonder if this factors into their plans at all, or is it just an important Communications Center? I bet an updated version of Manstein's  'Back-Hand Blow' would work here?

Kharkov was the first capital of the Ukraine SSR, now named Kharkiv.

There would be significant political capital gained from the capture of Kharkiv of course, as well as strategic and it's still a Russian goal.

Kupiansk's value is strategic as it's the central hub of access over the Oskil Reservoir. 

If Russia wishes to eventually reopen offensive operations against Kharkiv and then Kyiv, the capture of Kupiansk is important as it will allow them to try what they earlier failed to do, encircle Kharkiv and lay siege.

I imagine this, along with the new mobilizations and the training and expansion of the army in Belarus is anticipating a phase in the war in the spring of '24 where they make another attempt to take Kyiv and Kharkiv from multiple directions and end the war. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2023, 11:12:29 AM
https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/the-battle-of-hostomel-airport-a-key-moment-in-russias-defeat-in-kyiv/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 10, 2023, 01:13:59 PM
So because of the chaos Putin has caused with the ruble, Russia is now on the cusp of issuing a digital version of the ruble. I would guess this is a digital fiat currency. What could go wrong in a country run by cyber criminals?  ;) More to come I am sure:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russia-says-it-will-halt-foreign-currency-purchases-and-launch-a-digital-ruble-to-keep-the-currency-from-spiraling-further/ar-AA1f67gm?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5db149e962aa46268aeb3ee32dba594d&ei=48 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russia-says-it-will-halt-foreign-currency-purchases-and-launch-a-digital-ruble-to-keep-the-currency-from-spiraling-further/ar-AA1f67gm?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5db149e962aa46268aeb3ee32dba594d&ei=48)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 10, 2023, 01:24:54 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 10, 2023, 10:31:21 AMI'm not too worried about Ukraine's lack of forward progress per se so far: the Russians have been throwing rear-line reserves to the front defensive line pell mell to keep Ukraine from cracking it, and they're rapidly running out of reserves (not even counting refusals to go to or back to the defensive line).

I'm more worried about Ukrainian troop losses, but they're playing to minimize those as much as possible under the circumstances.

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 09, 2023, 02:55:06 PMI guess there's no way to know whether stuff going on around Verbove is a pinprick or more of a crack in the dam.  That seems to be the million dollar question.

For the Russians at this time, a pinprick through the defense could easily become a crack in the dam.

I hope you're right.  That's certainly the narrative that's being provided by the more optimistic pro-Ukrainian sources these days.  However, a pinprick that's not become a crack after more than two weeks seems unlikely to be cracking. 

As is often the case in war, even the folks on the ground don't know when a breakout is happening until a day or two after it's started.  And, if you have good OpSec, nobody else finds out for another few days after that.

The Russian Army of today isn't the Red Army of WW2, but it does seem like Russia has a long history of throwing poorly equipped, poorly trained troops into the meat grinder for years on end and still surviving.  They might not have as many troops as they did 80 years ago, but if their army is falling apart, I've not seen proof of it on any battle maps in the last nine months.

My concern is not so much that the Ukrainians are losing as that they don't seem to be winning either.

QuoteI can't recall at the moment, but how's the crossing far south into Crimea itself going? I got the impression that it's mainly for 'demonstration' purposes, and not meant (or supported) for going very far other than establishing and holding a beachhead -- for now -- and that the Russians were scrambling around in the area unable to put together a sufficient response (for now). But I don't recall hearing anything more in recent days.

I have the same sense as you.  Again, it's hard to know how much of this is the pro-Ukrainian media sources exaggerating a minor tactical victory for PR and click-generating purposes, and how much of it is just good OpSec.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 10, 2023, 02:27:51 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 10, 2023, 01:24:54 PMI hope you're right.  That's certainly the narrative that's being provided by the more optimistic pro-Ukrainian sources these days.  However, a pinprick that's not become a crack after more than two weeks seems unlikely to be cracking. 

As is often the case in war, even the folks on the ground don't know when a breakout is happening until a day or two after it's started.  And, if you have good OpSec, nobody else finds out for another few days after that.


The question I and some others have is, "Are the Ukranians actually trying to break the lines and launch a drive towards the sea before the snows?"

I'm not sure the answer is yes. 

Zelensky's "Too little too late" speech from a few weeks ago is a insight into his thinking and after the failed frontal assault after multiple delays at the start of the Counteroffensive, it does not seem as if the strategy of the UAF has been what many in NATO and the western media expect it to be.

The end result of the losses of Western Equipment was in the long run minor, only three Leopards were unsalvageable and most Bradley's are being repaired. However the short term result is that the UAF seems to have felt that its heavy brigades were too valuable to be risked in battle after sustaining such losses on the first day. 

I'm beginning to suspect, and some others are in agreement, that the UAF's strategy is simply to break lines and demine, gaining more advantageous positions for future operations after more NATO equipment, especially F-16's and Leopard I's and M1's arrive. 

The UAF seems to favor delay over decisive but risky action.  This is potentially being shown live in the Verbove valley where after they breached the lines, they halted and awaited the inevitable counterattacks, surrendering initiative and allowing their initial gains to be, albeit temporarily, lost.

Since those counterattacks were finally pushed back the UAF has not been seizing initiative back, instead they've consolidated.  They've widened the breach but they're giving the Russians a lot of time to lay mines and dig new works.

If that is indeed what's happening, I'm not sure of the effectiveness of that strategy.  While the UAF may be stronger next Spring, the Russians will have an entire fall and winter to further dig in and prepare, and yes, lay more and more mines. 

Overpreparing for an offensive expecting your opponent to not take advantage of the interval is a mistake the Germans made against the Russians at Kursk. 

Hopefully that mistake of the past is not being made again on a larger scale.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 10, 2023, 07:06:55 PM
They also don't want to squander all of their brigades on attacks that wouldn't succeed.  Obviously, use them to exploit when a breakthrough occurs but if one doesn't occur, Ukraine will need them in 2024 for a future offensive that Putin fantasizes for.  Damned if I can find the article with this dissenting view.

More optimistically, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/09/russian-tanks-depleted-stock-heavy-losses-ukraine/  Has a nice graphic of the vanishing tanks from a Siberian outdoor tank park.  Hopefully, Star is right and we'll see nothing but T-34s very soon.  Medvedev's claim of thousands of tanks produced a year is laughable.

Also, optimistically, the raid over the Dnipro: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8-2023 
QuoteA Russian milblogger noted that the Russian command recently redeployed a "prepared grouping" of Russian airborne (VDV) personnel from the Kozachi Laheri area to Zaporizhia Oblast and replaced them with mobilized fighters from an unspecified unit, thereby weakening Russian defensive power in this area.[
Hopefully, this is indicative of a severe manpower problem.  Hopefully, when Putin and his ilk call up more Russians in the fall for 2024, the Russian people will finally have had enough.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 10, 2023, 10:07:51 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on August 10, 2023, 07:06:55 PMThey also don't want to squander all of their brigades on attacks that wouldn't succeed.  Obviously, use them to exploit when a breakthrough occurs but if one doesn't occur, Ukraine will need them in 2024 for a future offensive that Putin fantasizes for.  Damned if I can find the article with this dissenting view.


That's fair and kind of what I am leaning towards.  The UAF can roll up the works and clear defensive positions with careful combined arms attacks, but there's limited room for a great breakthrough considering Russia's access to a near infinite supply of mines and zero compunction to use them regardless of the humanitarian costs or costs to their own side.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 10, 2023, 10:40:18 PM
So you feel they won't make it to the Sea of Azov with this offensive?  I have my doubts but I hope the Ukrainians succeed in cutting the land bridge and be in a strong position come what may.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2023, 11:48:50 PM
Im still hoping for a sudden rupture again.  the soviets sent a lot of shit north so the Kherson region isn't as strong as it was.  it's still shit terrain to fight across.  theres not a lot of news coming out from my perspective.  mostly small UAF pushes in the along the southern front and back and forth in the north. 
as for the Sea of Azov, at the moment no.  if the UAF can get to Tokmak I'd be happy from my middle aged armchair.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 10, 2023, 11:49:57 PM
quite interesting how pervasive real time intel has slowed warfare.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 11, 2023, 07:51:28 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 10, 2023, 10:07:51 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on August 10, 2023, 07:06:55 PMThey also don't want to squander all of their brigades on attacks that wouldn't succeed.  Obviously, use them to exploit when a breakthrough occurs but if one doesn't occur, Ukraine will need them in 2024 for a future offensive that Putin fantasizes for.  Damned if I can find the article with this dissenting view.


That's fair and kind of what I am leaning towards.  The UAF can roll up the works and clear defensive positions with careful combined arms attacks, but there's limited room for a great breakthrough considering Russia's access to a near infinite supply of mines and zero compunction to use them regardless of the humanitarian costs or costs to their own side.


  I would think that what the Ukrainians want to avoid above all is losses.  Paradoxically, this lets them in for a lot of attrition BUT if they can steadily and significantly degrade the Russians at all levels -- maybe they are hoping for a point where they can roll forward with relatively low losses.  Or, to look at it another way, if they can count on steady support from the West and they keep their losses low, they might reasonably suppose that sooner or later they will be able to advance with relatively low losses assuming they are significantly degrading the Russians across the board (economically, logistically, in troop strength and quality, weapons, artillery,equipment etc. -- that is systematically degrade the Russians in every way possible -- while keeping losses low)   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 11, 2023, 01:25:11 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on August 10, 2023, 10:40:18 PMSo you feel they won't make it to the Sea of Azov with this offensive?  I have my doubts but I hope the Ukrainians succeed in cutting the land bridge and be in a strong position come what may.



I don't think they're trying to make the Sea of Azov right now.  What MengJiao said in the post above is what I largely agree with is their current objective. 

That's not to say that if the opportunity presents itself that the situation might change, but the offensive's priority right now seems to be to degrade the Russians, gain stronger positions for the future, and preserve their combat power.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 11, 2023, 02:49:39 PM
Exactly. As I said a little over a month ago, and got some push-back for it, I don't see how Ukraine without control of the air, a significant advantage in arty or numbers, superior tech, or some other advantage is capable of a Major Military Victory over the Russkies and a drive to the Azov or Black Seas. I used the 'S' Word to describe it (Stalemate) and I still don't see it any differently today, unfortunately. It's just basic military principals. Cluster Munitions, Leopards, shaping-the-battlefield, and degrading the Russian Army didn't lead to victory.

However, I refuse to be so pessimistic and defeatist as I see here.  :grin:   My gut tells me the whole thing about the evacuations by the Ukrainians around Kupiansk might be a clever ploy to lure the Bears out of their fortifications into the open where the UAF can get at them. Draw them away from their arty and helicopters and then beat on them in open ground. And smash all that support when it tries to move-up into new positions. Maybe. Maybe not. The UAF still has time and are advancing in places so there's that. I think we're still in the 3rd quarter here but the clock is running.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 11, 2023, 03:13:35 PM
The Ukrainian strategy is by no means accepting the concept of stalemate and defeat. 

The counteroffensive is very far from defeated, it's approaching achieving its goals from a different path than the traditional breakthrough and rapid advance.

The attacks they're performing now are liberating important positions deep into the Russian defense lines and making them harder to hold.  They're killing significant numbers of Russian soldiers that they have difficulty replacing due to the inefficiency of transport from the Donbas and limited access from Crimea. 

Russian intercepts show their troops at the front are not getting rest or relief, they aren't getting rotated. They are engaged 24/7 and in many cases only are "safe" because of the minefields they've deployed to protect themselves. 

When the UAF degrades or removes those fields they have been demonstrated to win decisively and with limited casualties. 

The latest excample is that today Robotnye is on the verge of surrender without the UAF having to launch and direct assault. 

The strategy now, is that since they currently do not have decisive advantages in the air or enough ground NATO tech that they are laying siege.  They're targeting logistics, they're attacking Black Sea Shipping bringing supply, and they've launched raids and artillery attacks to sever road access. 

This is the strategy that led to collapse in Kherson and the UAF clearly hopes to repeat its success here.  So no, don't take any of the current analysis as defeatism. 

The western and NATO expectations simply weren't matched by the reality of the Ukrainian strategy that evolved after the initial delays in the counterattack.  So, yes, cluster munitions, battlefield shaping and degrading the Russian army are absolutely viable paths to victory, just perhaps not in the grandiose way the west would like to see.

The only thing that plays into the Russians hands here is that they do desire the "long war" that will drag out until 2025.  They internally expect major policy shifts from the west as there may be significantly pro-Russian political changes in the US and the European democracies who were already shaky may lose their patience swiftly after.

So both sides absolutely have a strategy to win and still think they can.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 11, 2023, 04:57:52 PM
I dont think its anywhere near as late as the 3rd quarter.  more like getting positions before halftime.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 11, 2023, 05:15:52 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 11, 2023, 04:57:52 PMI dont think its anywhere near as late as the 3rd quarter.  more like getting positions before halftime.

I would agree with that.  Much of the previous debate has been speculation, perhaps informed, but speculation notwithstanding. 

And to that end there are reports that Robotyne has surrendered to the UAF without a major fight.  A few pictures are circulating seeming to confirm that. 

If true that means they've taken another town through strain and clogging logistics, the same way they took Staromaiorske last week and Kherson last year.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 11, 2023, 05:47:07 PM
didnt post for the commentary and I cant seem to separate the video from the thread.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1689259243520565248
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 11, 2023, 08:33:18 PM
Photographic confirmation of the fall of Robotyne are starting to be posted.  Further to the west Urozhaine has fallen as well. 

The UAF seems to be back on the move after the pause and are heavily shelling supply lines towards the front.  A drive towards Verbove seems to be the chatter on Russian radio intercepts. 

It'll be interesting to see how far the UAF wants to drive in this time.  Novopokrovka is now being called contested and while its less fortified than Robotyne it's still bigger and an important part of the defense for the area.

Russian counterattacks at Robotyne are inevitable.

(https://i.ibb.co/C9Z4TYf/Robotnye.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 12, 2023, 07:53:36 AM
well the halftime show might be starting with new Kerch bridge strikes.   :Party:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3Uu_SxXIAAuk39?format=jpg&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3UuvYJWkAAqLTf?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3Uu_SbWQAAgQU-?format=jpg&name=large)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1690309340580708352


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 12, 2023, 07:54:10 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1690312231802564608


https://twitter.com/i/status/1690336514255806465

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 12, 2023, 12:04:55 PM
Are those tourists swimming in the foreground of some of those bridge shots?  :headscratch:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 12, 2023, 12:12:34 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 12, 2023, 12:04:55 PMAre those tourists swimming in the foreground of some of those bridge shots?  :headscratch:
Well, the point doesn't have a good break.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 12, 2023, 02:09:36 PM
Could this be the work of the infamous, 'Ukrainian Beaver Assault Team'?  :beaver2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 12, 2023, 02:32:22 PM
Interesting clarifications of what we've been seeing on the front lines fighting.  I wonder:  This is clearly a way to occupy land and keep the Russians on their back foot.  Will it result in the defeat of enough Russian troops at a single point in time to yield more than very incremental gains?

I heard an article on NPR the other day that was talking about how this has been "the most documented war of all time".  The abundance of high-speed Internet connections, the universal presence of cell phones and even webcams around the fighting, the profusion of drones providing a bird's eye view, and the massive amounts of content proactively pushed by each side provide all sorts of fodder for the masses. 

The latter can be deceiving (e.g., "No, Bayraktar drones aren't still killing lots of Russians") but it can still make for some accurate headlines (e.g., "Yes, Russian tourists are fleeing Crimea in the wake of the latest attacks").

They were also talking about how the presence of so many hardcore Russian nationalist mil-bloggers has provided a startling ability to validate information that would otherwise seem very one-sided.  Reading between the lines, I wonder:  Are the Russian mil-bloggers are providing for much looser OpSec on the Russian side, or just proving an after-the-fact source for triangulating on data pushed by Ukraine?  Perhaps both.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 13, 2023, 12:05:58 AM
ISW website seems to be down.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on August 13, 2023, 10:04:49 AM
Firefox says it's security certificate has expired.  I tried in private window and was able to continue by selecting advanced and accept the risk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 13, 2023, 01:39:29 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on August 13, 2023, 10:04:49 AMFirefox says it's security certificate has expired.  I tried in private window and was able to continue by selecting advanced and accept the risk.
ISW is up again, thanks.  It has a link to a great article written by their staff, published in Time.  https://time.com/6300772/ukraine-counteroffensive-can-still-succeed/ 

QuoteThe third is the most probable path to Ukrainian success. It will be slower and more gradual than the other two—and slower than Ukraine's Western backers desire and expect. It depends on the West providing Ukraine with a constant flow of equipment likely over many months so that Ukraine can maintain its pressure until the Russian forces offer the kinds of frontline cracks the Ukrainians can exploit. It is not primarily a matter of attrition. The slow pace of the pressure campaign Ukraine had been using before July 26 is designed to minimize Ukrainian losses. It is not primarily oriented towards attriting Russians either, but rather towards steadily forcing the Russians out of their prepared defensive positions in ways that the Ukrainians can take advantage of to make operationally significant advances. It is still maneuver warfare rather than attritional warfare, just at a slower pace. It therefore requires patience, but it can succeed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 13, 2023, 05:28:41 PM
You're terminated, mothersomethingorother:


and in Soviet Russia drive off cliff to evade drone:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 13, 2023, 06:36:42 PM
I see that happen in world of tanks all the time.  looking one way and driving another way while shells are flying all over the place.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 13, 2023, 07:30:48 PM
^'That old chestnut, Russian idiocy.'  :Dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 13, 2023, 07:43:06 PM
I wouldnt even say that. I can post tons of pics of tanks driving where they shouldnt.

Israel:
(https://preview.redd.it/xr6sl4jhpnf61.jpg?auto=webp&s=f788f4c936a714625fbc7f57da0c694d79004d8f)

American:
(https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-220938b57d041418e9e4ea315b6aefe6-lq)

British:
(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/04/11/11/41609568-9458729-image-a-40_1618135551958.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 13, 2023, 07:51:32 PM
I didn't say that, the narrator of the video did. I just enjoyed it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sigwolf on August 13, 2023, 08:19:32 PM
First video shows the incredible degree that modern warfare has changed in recent years.  The second seems off, like some serious CGI manipulation, but I could be mistaken.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 13, 2023, 09:43:54 PM
I think the front line north of the Azov is still going to my general expectations. They don't HAVE TO reach the Azov sea cities by winter. They only have to keep pressure on the lateral supply lines, especially insofar as those supply the Crimea, and minimize their own casualties.

Winter plays into Ukraine's hands: Russians on the southern fronts will degrade much more than Ukraine will, and Russia overall has a very small variability in their absolute strategic limit for supporting troops -- a limit slowly but steadily growing smaller all the time.

It's sort of a reverse version of boiling the frog slowly, I suppose. You can't eject Russia from Ukrainian contested territory (especially the Crimea) in an outright slug match (yet?), so you make it a little harder for them to stay in the area all the time, steadily degrading their ability to do so, and watch Russian morale dump itself.

This is why Russia badly needed to do something useful in messing with Ukraine in their countery-counter-attack toward Kharkiv. Russia has to find a way to get that pressure off the arteries going south, or they're gonna pass out and withdraw. Winter won't help Russia on this.

Sure, if Ukraine can find a way to pressure a major line collapse already in progress, who knows how far they could go? But they don't have to do that. This is why Putin has started holding grain shipments hostage in exchange for political pressure. He lacks the forces and equipment and leadership to win now, as long as Ukraine can keep its will and ability to fight; and he lacks the backfield capability to increase his forces for pushing anymore. He can send reinforcements, but they're increasingly more green than they already were, and his ability to support even green troops is steadily dwindling, thousand by thousand. Penny-parceling his massive population advantage won't work for him, but it's the only way to keep the fight going and hope for Western political will to elect out of supporting Ukraine's resistance.

Bonus: slowly trickle-withdrawing Russians from contested areas, even begrudgingly, doesn't move the nuclear seismograph's needle very much. Putin can just declare he's saving the world from catastrophe one day by refusing to nuke Ukraine or anywhere else, and it's all the US/NATO's fault not his, but Russia needs hands and backs to feed its people and he won't throw any more lives into the mouths of Nazi whatevers BUT IF NATO STEPS ONE FOOT OVER THE LINE OF THEIR NEW FORTIFIED SECTOR HE'LL BLOW US ALL TO KINGDOM COME YOU BETTER BELIEVE IT! (Because he knows NATO never had that intention, that was his invasion intention, and now he's too old for this crap. But he can bluster about it to save face and spin things to save some propaganda honor.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 14, 2023, 06:16:30 AM
Nine hours ago, update from Denys Davydov, who says an "Army Group" got mulched at Urozhanie...


...so... in terms of Russian organization right now, a few thousand troops?  :tongue:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 14, 2023, 09:57:27 AM
Going two posts back up...  I hope you're right, Jason.  The "Make the Russian Army so miserable that they eventually give up" approach has not exactly been historically successful.

I worry about how election outcomes might affect NATO allies' willingness to continue funding Ukraine indefinitely.  I don't fault the Ukrainians for not wanting to embrace any of the other alternatives at the moment. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 14, 2023, 10:40:46 AM
I look at Deny's videos regularly. He's clearly one of the most pro-Ukrainian bloggers but that doesn't mean he's not accurate as well. Watch the pro-Ukes and the pro-Russkies and the truth is somewhere in the middle. Unless they're all feeding us stuff they make-up just to satisfy our insatiable appetite for info which, if true, kind of makes it our own fault doesn't it?  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 14, 2023, 12:14:55 PM
ever. so. slowly......

https://twitter.com/i/status/1691127070586294274
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 14, 2023, 12:29:31 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1690788961268977664
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 14, 2023, 02:38:31 PM
Now why would they go through all that risk???? Just to back off as quickly as they came?

The Ruskie arty looked nasty as shit too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 14, 2023, 03:29:52 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 14, 2023, 09:57:27 AMGoing two posts back up...  I hope you're right, Jason.  The "Make the Russian Army so miserable that they eventually give up" approach has not exactly been historically successful.

I worry about how election outcomes might affect NATO allies' willingness to continue funding Ukraine indefinitely.  I don't fault the Ukrainians for not wanting to embrace any of the other alternatives at the moment. 

You've got Denys Davidov praising the Ukrainian Army for a 3 square Km. advance in one day. That is WWI level acreage.

I think this war will reflect WWI in another way...it will not end until one or both sides are completely exhausted. I don't really know of course, but it seems like both sides are not close to exhaustion yet.

Even if NATO gets fatigued and starts pulling back support, say late next year, it is not clear that Russia's army would be able to exploit that. So we may be pretty far from seeing the end of this.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 14, 2023, 04:16:38 PM
3km in a day is a lot considering the density on mine fields.
I know that sounds fanboyish but it seems to be the reality on the ground.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 14, 2023, 04:31:52 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 14, 2023, 04:16:38 PM3km in a day is a lot considering the density on mine fields.
I know that sounds fanboyish but it seems to be the reality on the ground.

The number of mines that are deployed in the south right now are dense enough to cover the entire state of Florida and make it virtually impassable. 

The Russians are also now actually expanding their mine deployment operations, especially after the fall of Urozhaine, which was the last major obstacle before the thinnest points of the Russian works.  The solution to halting a potential breakthrough there is, well, more mines. 

Western mine clearing tech has proven woefully inadequate to deal with the fields that are now measured at millions of mines. 

Worse, the Russians can deploy more far faster than can be cleared, and they're cheap to produce. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 14, 2023, 06:24:13 PM
Ukraine is now the most mined country in the world and schoolchildren have a new addition to their curriculum, while Russian children get HJ like indoctrination and paramilitary training. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-kids-learn-mine-safety-russian-children-learn-drones-guns-2023-8


Ukraine is also trying innovation for demining with an excavator:
https://ca.rogers.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-tests-homemade-demining-machine-185131710.html

Should be usable away from combat but they might want to up armour the excavator's hydraulic cables even with the attachment's thick shield.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 14, 2023, 09:04:09 PM
It'll be interesting to see how much money the West has to spend to develop effective anti-mine technology.  Obviously, the challenge of removing a prodigious number of mines is vastly complicated when you have other enemy technologies (e.g., artillery or ATGMs) trying to neutralize your own anti-mine technology.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 14, 2023, 09:05:02 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 14, 2023, 09:57:27 AMI hope you're right, Jason.  The "Make the Russian Army so miserable that they eventually give up" approach has not exactly been historically successful.

Speaking of modern WW1 fighting, though... making the Russian Army so miserable they eventually gave up was, in an admittedly oversimplified way, what happened.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 14, 2023, 09:05:32 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 14, 2023, 09:04:09 PMIt'll be interesting to see how much money the West has to spend to develop effective anti-mine technology.

Cry havoc and release memes about the robot dogs!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 14, 2023, 09:19:34 PM
I believe Robot Gophers might work better. But then you'd have the gopher holes so...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2023, 11:32:58 AM
 :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3lOjjwXAAAPt4i?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 15, 2023, 01:13:24 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 14, 2023, 09:19:34 PMI believe Robot Gophers might work better. But then you'd have the gopher holes so...

Quick, AI! -- generate a giphy from Caddyshack with the gopher wearing a Ukranian cap!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 15, 2023, 02:47:39 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 14, 2023, 09:05:02 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 14, 2023, 09:57:27 AMI hope you're right, Jason.  The "Make the Russian Army so miserable that they eventually give up" approach has not exactly been historically successful.

Speaking of modern WW1 fighting, though... making the Russian Army so miserable they eventually gave up was, in an admittedly oversimplified way, what happened.

Yeah, I thought about that as I was typing it.  WW1 was, I think, the only example where that tactic worked. 

Of course, after the Germans lost WW1, the Russians got most of their land back...  Only to have it invaded again by Allied powers during 1918 in a bid to help the White Russians overthrow the Red Russians! 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 15, 2023, 02:49:59 PM
^We have to define 'worked' more clearly. Like this: 'Knocking Russia out of the First World War' as it got engulfed by numerous other wars.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 15, 2023, 02:55:55 PM
Solid Wall Street Journal-produced documentary on the Wagner Group:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 15, 2023, 06:20:00 PM
Well, great news.  With the fast and unexpected collapse of the defensive point of Urozhaine, the Russians actually decided the next strongpoint of Zavitne Bazhannia is not tenable and they are falling back, not even bothering to defend the Morkiydy estuary. 

The Russians are instead trying to rally their broken forces at Staromlynikva with elements of the 60th Motorized Rifle as a rearguard. 

This puts the UAF in striking distance of the only Russian defense lines in the sector as long as they can push through Staromlynikva quickly. 

And further to the west the bridgeheads across the Dniper awaited Russian mechanized counterattacks that never came.  Getting across the river has been surprisingly easy and I imagine the temptation to try to establish a major crossing is getting tempting.  Still very risky as the logistics trail will be choked by the river. 

I'm very interested to see what happens with these bridgeheads as they Russians have virtually no forces across the river opposing it.  That's the best most open ground running in the region and it's totally unfortified, unmined and virtually undefended. 

If the Russians bite on the river crossing that could weaken them significantly along the other fronts.  They're stretched so thin that they can't keep numerical parity everywhere while still sending units to their death in Adiivka and Kupiansk. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2023, 06:41:04 PM
great post, needs maps!   :peace:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 15, 2023, 07:37:27 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2023, 06:41:04 PMgreat post, needs maps!   :peace:

A lot of that I'm scouring off Telegram and translated Russian intercepts so no maps.  The Deepstate map has some of that reflected but it's a bit behind. 

And a fun story.  In Kherson when the UAF Spec Ops made night before last's crossing, the Russian regional commander Major Yuri Tomov made his way to the front to see why he'd lost communications with his blocking forces. 

He approached soldiers to ask why they weren't reporting in only to meet Ukrainian special forces.  They politely informed him he was now a prisoner of war. 

(https://i.ibb.co/Pg2cpfD/russian-major-tomov.png) 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2023, 08:42:25 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1691491187985723402
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 15, 2023, 08:51:24 PM
I'm sure the Ukrainians were especially polite to the Russian Major...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 15, 2023, 09:58:15 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 15, 2023, 08:51:24 PMI'm sure the Ukrainians were especially polite to the Russian Major...

Well, I was sort of being sarcastic about the polite part.

He does look nice in his photoshoot.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2023, 09:59:53 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1691551080570667322
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 15, 2023, 11:31:48 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 15, 2023, 06:20:00 PMI'm very interested to see what happens with these bridgeheads as they Russians have virtually no forces across the river opposing it.  That's the best most open ground running in the region and it's totally unfortified, unmined and virtually undefended. 

Taking easy ground with a caveat of 'an exposed logistics trail' might not be worth it, but I sense its something the UAF would run with; if anything to create carnage deep in russian occupied territory while keeping an eye on their tail.

IANAG, but damn that would be a juicy opportunity to not just poke the bear, but ram'er home with no lube.... sorry, but that's a very satisfying visual.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 16, 2023, 12:08:54 AM
Here you go PJ... sorta
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2023, 12:58:21 AM
Quote from: Windigo on August 15, 2023, 11:31:48 PMIANAG, but damn that would be a juicy opportunity to not just poke the bear, but ram'er home with no lube.... sorry, but that's a very satisfying visual.

(https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aqexGyL_700bwp.webp)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2023, 12:58:43 AM
true story
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 16, 2023, 07:46:56 AM
 :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 16, 2023, 12:25:31 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2023, 12:58:21 AM
Quote from: Windigo on August 15, 2023, 11:31:48 PMIANAG, but damn that would be a juicy opportunity to not just poke the bear, but ram'er home with no lube.... sorry, but that's a very satisfying visual.

(https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aqexGyL_700bwp.webp)

 that is a very satisfying visual
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2023, 12:50:49 PM
indeed
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 16, 2023, 02:01:33 PM
Chatter on Telegram now confirmed by Forbes is that the UAF has finally committed the 82nd Air Assault Brigade with its Challengers, Strykers and Marders to the front south of Robotyne. 

This is in relief of, not in concert with the Ukrainian Marines that have been bearing the brunt of the fighting in the area.

This is interesting as the Marines were specialized for the type of warfare that they've been largely conducting, breaking fortifications, urban combat and battlefield engineering. 

The 82nd Air Assault is the rapid maneuver warfare element that so far has been held in reserve.   This was a unit I expected to see on the farther eastern axis where where the defenses are much thinner rather than going into the teeth of the second and third lines of defense and fortifications at Tokmak and Ocheretuvate.

Do the Ukrainians know something we don't?  Or are they continuing to double down on Russian style pressure tactics over NATO style breakthrough and maneuver?

Either way, Russian media has been excitedly playing video of the first Strykers destroyed in drone attacks.  Every piece of NATO gear they take out is like 4th of July to them.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2023, 02:54:33 PM
 :shocked:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1691899266321580396
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 16, 2023, 03:54:05 PM
Damn.... american equipment is built freaking tuff... like Gus' nuts
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 16, 2023, 04:01:09 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 16, 2023, 03:54:05 PMDamn.... american equipment is built freaking tuff... like Gus' nuts

So is the German stuff.  Almost every single Leopard and most Bradley "lost" in the mess of the first day of the counteroffensive is back in action.  Only three Leopards were declared total losses and even then they had parts that could be salvaged to repair the other chassis.

Of the 34 Bradleys' "Lost" only 12 are either beyond repair or not able to return to the battlefield for this phase of the operations.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 16, 2023, 04:36:19 PM
Good to see those guys able to get themselves out in that clip.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 16, 2023, 05:17:22 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 16, 2023, 04:36:19 PMGood to see those guys able to get themselves out in that clip.

that goes without saying, and I bet their hearing is below par now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2023, 05:20:22 PM
WHAT?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2023, 06:32:51 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1691912842797261127
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 16, 2023, 09:38:23 PM
That is a classic WW2 OOB for a Soviet Air Assault Brigade: Marders, Strykers, Leopards! (Well, minus the German sourcing.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jaedegader on August 17, 2023, 03:29:09 AM
Quote from: Windigo on August 15, 2023, 11:31:48 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 15, 2023, 06:20:00 PMI'm very interested to see what happens with these bridgeheads as they Russians have virtually no forces across the river opposing it (https://buyweedseedsonline.com/).  That's the best most open ground running in the region and it's totally unfortified, unmined and virtually undefended.

Taking easy ground with a caveat of 'an exposed logistics trail' might not be worth it, but I sense its something the UAF would run with; if anything to create carnage deep in russian occupied territory while keeping an eye on their tail.

IANAG, but damn that would be a juicy opportunity to not just poke the bear, but ram'er home with no lube.... sorry, but that's a very satisfying visual.

This represents a traditional World War 2 order of battle for a Russian/Ukrainian Air Assault Brigade: Marders, Strykers, and Leopards! (Of course, without the German origin.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 17, 2023, 12:13:54 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 16, 2023, 05:20:22 PMWHAT?

what?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 17, 2023, 12:50:44 PM
I don't know is on third.  :twirl:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 17, 2023, 01:10:21 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 17, 2023, 12:50:44 PMI don't know is on third.  :twirl:

Who is on first.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 17, 2023, 01:47:04 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 17, 2023, 01:10:21 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 17, 2023, 12:50:44 PMI don't know is on third.  :twirl:

Who is on first.

I don't care.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 17, 2023, 02:03:33 PM
Now there's an interesting variation! If "I don't care" is on first, and "I don't know" is on third, then who must be on second.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 17, 2023, 02:44:53 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 17, 2023, 02:03:33 PMNow there's an interesting variation! If "I don't care" is on first, and "I don't know" is on third, then who must be on second.

I don't care is the shortstop.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 17, 2023, 03:05:20 PM
I just wanted to know what Star meant.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 17, 2023, 03:23:14 PM
Bad hearing after booms joke.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 17, 2023, 03:58:47 PM
kinda scary that Pratt got it and Windy didnt.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 17, 2023, 04:16:39 PM
jeebus.... and here I thought you wer reacting to an event over in the Ukraine and you were expressing incredulousness.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 17, 2023, 04:23:40 PM
I get that he was reacting to something.  I just don't know what.

Jason, Who moved to 2nd in the 4th inning?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 17, 2023, 04:43:18 PM
Thanks FAS, it's tough being alone and clued out, but we can work through it together.  :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 17, 2023, 07:23:34 PM
In actual news, I guess: I saw where Ukraine acknowledged they were the ones who zorched the Kerch bridge the first time back in July, with a prototype of their lowprofile explosive drone boats.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 17, 2023, 08:19:19 PM
Business Basics has an interview with Jason Jay Smart (no relation  :Nerd: ), a frontline correspondent for the war, talking about... well, a bunch of usual topics, tbh.

Ignore the usual clickbaity thumbnail title. He isn't arguing the war is over.


Twas a good interview, tho!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2023, 12:02:33 AM
great find Jason!  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2023, 07:06:55 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1692422168301236226
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2023, 07:14:51 AM
definitely a world of tanks player.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1692307316031344955
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 18, 2023, 08:18:31 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2023, 07:06:55 AMhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1692422168301236226
I am surprised that even with an ejection system that someone got out of that alive.  Between the hit and the helicopter nosing over there must be less than half a second -  Pretty impressive reaction time from whoever punched out that it was time to go
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 18, 2023, 08:33:09 AM
Another very good video from CaspianReport reminding everyone that this war goes far beyond Ukraine...it's from last year but the main points still hold.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2023, 08:41:53 AM
a blank post?  :tongue:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 18, 2023, 09:05:11 AM
You don't see it?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2023, 09:47:26 AM
now I do
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 18, 2023, 05:28:02 PM
That PT-91 was really hauling ass. Wiki says max speed 60 kM/hr..... I think they were doing that + as they exited the area.

Tank crew continuing to fire going forward saying F-you when the shells started falling around them.

It looks like a RPG was shot at them (halfway through the video) - I wonder if they saw that
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 18, 2023, 06:18:15 PM
I li
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 17, 2023, 08:19:19 PMBusiness Basics has an interview with Jason Jay Smart (no relation  :Nerd: ), a frontline correspondent for the war, talking about... well, a bunch of usual topics, tbh.

Ignore the usual clickbaity thumbnail title. He isn't arguing the war is over.


Twas a good interview, tho!
I like his assessment. Logical and rationale. The guy interviewing g him was a bit crap though
Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 19, 2023, 07:17:08 PM
training in Poland.  it slips my mind how big these things are.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1692963846611218758
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 20, 2023, 04:58:52 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html?referringSource=articleShare

The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began 18 months ago is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials said, a staggering toll as Russia assaults its next-door neighbor and tries to seize more territory.

The officials cautioned that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures. But they said the slaughter intensified this year in eastern Ukraine and has continued at a steady clip as a nearly three-month-old counteroffensive drags on.

Russia's military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.


These are numbers you would expect to read in a book about WWII, not in a newspaper in 2023  :embarrassed: .



WAR !
What is it good for ?
Absolutely nothing !
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 20, 2023, 06:02:42 AM
Gift link to a rather good FT article on Russia's war of recolonisation in Ukraine by Mr Ilves, ex-president of Estonia.

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1693144436773962200
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 20, 2023, 07:41:30 AM
GOOD MORNING!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3-Vth8XoAAqZl2?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3-WXNuWgAAV6yI?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 20, 2023, 07:49:33 AM
:ROFL:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3-RS1hXYAAM7-w?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 20, 2023, 08:10:41 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 20, 2023, 07:49:33 AM:ROFL:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F3-RS1hXYAAM7-w?format=jpg&name=small)

 :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on August 20, 2023, 11:06:16 AM
Lol, only the Russians could fuck up a moon landing in 2023.  I'm kinda of baffled why they even bothered with the Ukraine war raging.  Seems those resources were wasted, but hey it's Russia... the whole thing was probably some domestic propaganda bullshit...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 20, 2023, 11:17:35 AM
Quote from: Skoop on August 20, 2023, 11:06:16 AMLol, only the Russians could fuck up a moon landing in 2023.  I'm kinda of baffled why they even bothered with the Ukraine war raging.  Seems those resources were wasted, but hey it's Russia... the whole thing was probably some domestic propaganda bullshit...
and why were they racing the Indians to find water on the moon? 
The Soviet Union was a signatory to the Outer Space Treaty, where "outer space is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means", amongst other things. I'm sure the Russians would have held themselves to the treaty as they have clearly demonstrated their ethics and honest dealings, especially in the last two years.

Best hat meme yet.  Queue the Russians declaring the moon a terrorist entity, just tell them that the Nazi moon theme is taken already and probably trademarked.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 20, 2023, 11:47:06 AM
The Dutch PM has said that up to 42 F-16s will be donated to Ukraine. Additionally, Denmark has said it will send some as well.

Given the long and vacillating history of aircraft donations in this war, I can't help being skeptical, but I am still very hopeful. 

Also, I can't help thinking that given the fickle politics and logistics issues, the Falcons will trickle into Ukraine and therefore not be as game-changing as they might be otherwise. 

Anyway, some good news I believe.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/netherlands-denmark-commit-to-deliver-f16s-to-ukraine-dutch-pm-rutte/ar-AA1fw83H?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9fee93d389e943e4a43c211ae86b4659&ei=12 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/netherlands-denmark-commit-to-deliver-f16s-to-ukraine-dutch-pm-rutte/ar-AA1fw83H?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9fee93d389e943e4a43c211ae86b4659&ei=12)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 20, 2023, 02:16:49 PM
Quote from: Skoop on August 20, 2023, 11:06:16 AMLol, only the Russians could fuck up a moon landing in 2023.  I'm kinda of baffled why they even bothered with the Ukraine war raging.  Seems those resources were wasted, but hey it's Russia... the whole thing was probably some domestic propaganda bullshit...

Live footage now available.

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1693236350424629719
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 20, 2023, 03:29:07 PM
Saw that report on casualty figures yesterday, I think. It is quite sobering.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 20, 2023, 06:50:29 PM
the difference between a NATO and russian tank hitting a mine.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1693170645343871284
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 20, 2023, 07:00:18 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1693390848744915095
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 20, 2023, 07:55:01 PM
Apparently, two of those bombers were droned; the side and front photos were of the one that was lost more spectacularly. The other is iffy, which in Russian translates to 'gone'.

Even if all F-16s arrive (with their logistic tail) in Ukraine, and can be operate without being droned and ATG'd out quickly by Russia, and the Ukrainian runways don't crumple their relatively delicate landing gear... the pilots need A LOT of training to be mission operative, including flying propeller craft first (from a report I saw going into some realistic detail of what would be necessary) because they're starting practically from scratch. All things considered, they won't feasibly show up in theater until late NEXT year.

But of course, if they don't at least try to start now they definitely won't have them any earlier if at all, so...!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 20, 2023, 10:06:29 PM
This is a reminder that China's economy is also self-destructing due to Godawful practices, and once it goes down that's going to make a big difference on its support for Russia -- in any of several ways. This video doesn't talk about that, but updates one of the big dominoes about to take down China's economy: Evergrande and China's infamous empty new cities.

(The clickbaity title is wrong, as usual, but less wrong than usual. ;) )


This video also doesn't talk about the impact this will have on China's BRICS ponzi-scheme plans, but that's another big domino about to fall and it's kind of a race to see which will take down the other first -- plus that R in the acronym is Russia, who badly needs everyone else in that acronym to pull their asses out of the economic firestorm. Three of the brics are in desperate trouble, though (including South Africa), and I'm not too sure about Brazil overall. India can't subsidize them all herself; and she's stuck on the flanks of both China and Russia, so yay there.  :twirl:

Come to think of it, with Pakistan also going down the drain (somewhat literally thanks to epic horror-flooding this year), the collapse of China and Russia as functioning states could free up several Muslim nations in the area to gang up in a superstate based on claims of being the one true Caliphate and launching jihads to raid infidel sub-states nearby for loot to survive on (and otherwise enslaving them).

So imagine like forty nations and sub-states suddenly violating Fezziwig's most well-known rule: never get involved in a land war in Asia. Or, alternately, go play Vicky 2 or 3 across the span of what became Imperial Russia and modern national China eventually.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 20, 2023, 11:22:46 PM
Quoteand the Ukrainian runways don't crumple their relatively delicate landing gear...

what makes you think that an F-16s landing gear is flimsy?
I found this but its an issue thats supposed to be fixed now.
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/long-standing-problem-with-f-16-landing-gear-caused-december-2019-mishap-at-kunsan/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 21, 2023, 08:06:35 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1693549839592624323
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 21, 2023, 08:39:26 AM
I think that the bigger issue with the F-16s is that their intakes suck up any loose debris on a landing field, making it much harder to maintain the runways when you're consistently within range of enemy drones and missiles.  This means that using isolated stretches of highway as impromptu airfields is extremely dangerous, which means that it's easier to spot F-16 runways, which means that it's easier to keep them non-operational.

None of which means that NATO shouldn't give Ukraine F-16s.  They're a definite step in the right direction.  They just aren't as likely to be a game changer as many of us might hope.

I haven't watched the entire article yet, but one piece that talks about the implications of the F-16 in some detail is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgHud7Z5vaE.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 21, 2023, 09:58:23 AM
pretty sure this is the same attack as my last post from a different drone.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1693633937124315404
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 21, 2023, 10:04:41 AM
Taiwan seems to like the idea.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/ready-takeoff-taiwans-highways-can-host-f-16-fighting-falcons-193665

Singapore has also tried it.

https://borneotoday.net/fighter-jets-take-off-from-from-lim-chu-kang-road-in-rsafs-exercise-torrent/

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_found_ways_to_improve_airfields_for_the_f_16_what_could_be_the_problem-3682.html

maybe it would just be best to give them F-18s instead.  :peace:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 21, 2023, 10:30:49 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 21, 2023, 09:58:23 AMpretty sure this is the same attack as my last post from a different drone.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1693633937124315404


Damn that happened it quick order. Helluva good placement too. Speaks to me that engineering vehicles are needed to make new lanes of approach.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 21, 2023, 10:34:36 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 21, 2023, 10:04:41 AMTaiwan seems to like the idea.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/ready-takeoff-taiwans-highways-can-host-f-16-fighting-falcons-193665

Singapore has also tried it.

https://borneotoday.net/fighter-jets-take-off-from-from-lim-chu-kang-road-in-rsafs-exercise-torrent/

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_found_ways_to_improve_airfields_for_the_f_16_what_could_be_the_problem-3682.html

maybe it would just be best to give them F-18s instead.  :peace:

Hornets/Super Hornets for the win. Navy aviation assets built freaking tough.

Also... a wild assed idea, but why not some low teck solutions like .... the A-29 Tucano
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 21, 2023, 10:59:40 AM
Can the Tucano operate in a high-threat environment?  Isn't it for anti-insurgent warfare? 

Star's idea of sending A-10s is a nice idea but what kind of upgrade to their defensive packages could they get.  P.I.T.S. right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 21, 2023, 11:16:00 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 20, 2023, 11:22:46 PM
Quoteand the Ukrainian runways don't crumple their relatively delicate landing gear...

what makes you think that an F-16s landing gear is flimsy?
I found this but its an issue thats supposed to be fixed now.
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/long-standing-problem-with-f-16-landing-gear-caused-december-2019-mishap-at-kunsan/

Well, yes, that. {g} And not that the gear is supposed to be flimsy exactly, only that it needs smooth runways.

Could also depend on how old the Dutch planes are, which I don't know but usually platforms sent to Ukraine tend to be older models needing replacement. Relatedly, the timing for this transfer will also depend on when Holland receives its promised order of F-35s.

(Though now I'm a little paranoid wondering if I'm remembering Holland/Netherlands correctly as the source of the 16s.... I thought we used to have a greybeard smiley for poking fun at our aging memory and eyesight! It used to be right here, let's see...  :privatedancer: there, did that work?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 21, 2023, 11:18:11 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 21, 2023, 08:39:26 AMI haven't watched the entire article yet, but one piece that talks about the implications of the F-16 in some detail is


Activated the code in-window. :)


Also, yeah, doing a foreign object sweep down an F-16 runway is a hell of a lot more time consuming than for an F-18 on a carrier deck.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 21, 2023, 11:27:25 AM
I don't want detail, I want the "elevator pitch".

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 21, 2023, 12:15:50 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 21, 2023, 11:27:25 AMI don't want detail, I want the "elevator pitch".

"We're professionals.  Trust us!"    :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on August 21, 2023, 12:24:08 PM
After all these Russian losses (it seems like a lot to me) can they even field enough toys on the battlefield to deal with NATO? I know another big threat is China, but I'm not sure how or even IF Russia could stomach a conventional war with NATO. I mean, they probably have warehouses full of T-34's  :Loser:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 21, 2023, 12:33:21 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 21, 2023, 11:27:25 AMI don't want detail, I want the "elevator pitch".

Remember the movie "Iron Eagle"? It'll be like that. NO NOT THE SEQUELS THE FIRST ONE!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 21, 2023, 12:34:08 PM
Quote from: acctingman on August 21, 2023, 12:24:08 PMAfter all these Russian losses (it seems like a lot to me) can they even field enough toys on the battlefield to deal with NATO? I know another big threat is China, but I'm not sure how or even IF Russia could stomach a conventional war with NATO. I mean, they probably have warehouses full of T-34's  :Loser:

Not for much longer if they go to war with NATO. A real war, I mean, not just a cold one.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 21, 2023, 12:46:11 PM
I imagine a hot war with russia would look a lot like Desert Storm.
a month or more of an even more impressive air campaign and then Poland and Finland take everything to the Urals.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 21, 2023, 01:23:17 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 21, 2023, 11:18:11 AMAlso, yeah, doing a foreign object sweep down an F-16 runway is a hell of a lot more time consuming than for an F-18 on a carrier deck.

Finnish AF runs their F/A-18s from road bases too, has done for years and years, no incidents as far as I know. Cleaning a strip of paved road should be possible for F-16s as well. ROK does road bases too for one, don't they have F-16s as well? Norwegians did for their F-16s iirc. Edit, no, actually. Quick google showed Singapore doing that however. Edit2 and Taiwan, too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 21, 2023, 02:27:58 PM
The relative problem is the low-slung intake for the 16 compared to the 18. And I didn't say it would be impossible, just a lot more time-consuming. With manpower, much is possible! (Which is why on a carrier practically everyone shows up for the 'walk' down the flight deck, from the admiral on down, traditionally. Dad used to see top brass doing that on the Nimitz in early Nam days.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 21, 2023, 02:42:37 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 21, 2023, 12:15:50 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 21, 2023, 11:27:25 AMI don't want detail, I want the "elevator pitch".

"We're professionals.  Trust us!"    :Party:

You got 25 more seconds.... no dead air space
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 21, 2023, 02:49:33 PM
How about some Harriers? The UAF could really have fun poking the bear with those. Playing whack-a-mole with russkie artillery that's trying to hit them and service crews on the ground (they'd be moving all the time).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 21, 2023, 02:51:45 PM
One of the problems I read that the Ukrainian air force was running into was finding enough pilots that were fluent enough in English to operate the plane's MFD systems. 

Don't forget that there isn't just a language barrier here, there's an alphabet barrier.


While a lot of Ukrainians speak English, they still need to learn it well enough to parse the plane's terminology.  To that end the RAF has set up a special school in the UK, but they anticipate months of turnaround for a lot of the pilots to be prepared. 

During those months these pilots are effectively out of the war otherwise.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 21, 2023, 04:22:24 PM
the FOD thing to me isnt that big a deal.  every airbase and carrier does FOD walks all the time.  its literally part of the routine.
as for the pilots, a couple of ideas.
take Ukrainian civilian pilots and use the best of those to train on 16s while the front line pilots continue on.
why not switch out the alpha numerics for Ukrainian language?  would that not take less time?
I also recall quite recently seeing an ad for essentially Ukraine Flying Tigers.  foreign pilots that are already
rated on F-16s.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 21, 2023, 04:30:24 PM
and Ukrainians being who they are would probably come up with some low disruption screen for the intakes anyway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 21, 2023, 05:33:12 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 21, 2023, 02:42:37 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 21, 2023, 12:15:50 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 21, 2023, 11:27:25 AMI don't want detail, I want the "elevator pitch".

"We're professionals.  Trust us!"    :Party:

You got 25 more seconds.... no dead air space

But then I'd be going beyond the script of The Polar Express!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 21, 2023, 05:52:15 PM
Yeah, I keep hearing the idea for a Ukraine Flying Tigers/Lafayette Escadrille and it seems like a valid concept. 

I know the US is highly opposed to creating one with the sanction of the government so it'd have to be something Ukraine put together themselves.  Even then we're far more hesitant to allow our even retired pilots to volunteer for such an endeavor than we are individual infantrymen. 

If we did it I'd imagine it'd have to be on the sly with conditions like the old Soviet "Hondos" in Korea.  They'd be required to stay over friendly territory at all times and avoid capture so they wouldn't be exploited for propaganda purposes. 

Even if a non-active American or NATO F-16 pilot got captured flying an F-16, the Russians would massively exploit that as proof NATO was directly intervening in the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 21, 2023, 06:13:49 PM
soviets fucks flew in Korea and Vietnam so fuck em.  :RockOn:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 21, 2023, 07:00:53 PM
Since you're on the topic...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 21, 2023, 09:20:19 PM
Good video Jarhead and yeah, that keeps being the issue with complicated NATO fighters and why I keep being skeptical the F-16 is going to be able to be operated effectively enough to be a difference maker in the short term.

This is why so many keep suggesting the Gripen, but of course there aren't enough of them.

Also good info on why the UAF is being so "slow" on clearing the front lines of defense and mostly working horizontally on the front rather than vertically. 

To bolster his points there was an interesting article in Newsweek about Russian artillery doctorine and its recent changes. 

As the first lines are increasingly under pressure, Russian artillerists have been ordered to ignore the possibility of friendly fire on lines manned with reservists. 

So they are now doing more than danger close.  If they are engaged at close range Russian arty is dropping equally on their own men, sometimes intentionally as they don't want to see the route at Urozhaine repeated. 

Russian friendly fire casualties have skyrocketed in the last weeks, enough that the DPR local commander has grown increasingly infuriated that the Russian military is butchering his allied troops in the eastern part of the lines. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 21, 2023, 09:35:07 PM
The Ukrainians should just paint Putin's face on every plane they have, no Russian pilot would dare shoot at them then. Of course...everybody else in the whole world would so... maybe not a good idea.  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 22, 2023, 09:08:38 AM
Sadly, still no gum drops and unicorns in Ukraine. What miracle NATO wonder weapon will be needed to turn the tide now?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 09:48:29 AM
seems like winning to me.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1693922011951542408
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 22, 2023, 09:56:47 AM
You can continue to bury your head in the sand by posting cool videos, or you can accept the reality that is becoming more and more undeniable.

Ukraine losing is not an outcome anyone really wants, but it appears fairly inevitable given the actual strategic reality on the ground. My concern is how the West will continue to "up the ante" in order to lead to further escalation. In the end nobody will benefit (except the MIC, of course) and Ukrainians will continue to suffer the most. That, on the other hand, is an outcome that nobody should be pushing for. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 22, 2023, 10:10:30 AM
Just over a month ago, daring to suggest that the Ukrainians couldn't defeat the Russkies militarily would've been considered, 'Heresy' and this guy labeled a Pro-Russian Propagandist. I'm glad to see a more even-handed and honest appraisal of what's costing the lives of so many on both sides. Finally.

To be fair to the Ukrainians, there's not been land combat on this scale since, what, Korea? And that was far smaller in territory involved. I think they're tactically sound but it's the Operational part they haven't gotten down pat yet. And who could blame them, they only began to try to build a modern army a couple years back and that cannot be done on the quick and cheap can it?

Next up will be the part-time military experts telling us they predicted this all along and, as usual, were always right.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 10:16:08 AM
well your free to have whatever opinion you want based on whatever news services you use.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Network  real lovely people... :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 22, 2023, 10:17:06 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 10:16:08 AMwell your free to have whatever opinion you want based on whatever news services you use.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Network  real lovely people... :huh:

Why don't you try listening to what they actually say and investigate their sources rather than simply looking for a way to discredit a view you disagree with? As unpleasant as it may be, what they are saying is largely the truth.

Besides, other than being labeled as "Libertarian" by wikipedia, what else, aside from the facts they are publicizing, do you find objectionable?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 22, 2023, 10:29:38 AM
I believe it was the NY Times that published the shocking casualty figures from the war so far for both sides, 500,000. And that was only an estimate. Last time I looked they were NOT a Right Wing mouthpiece.  :HideEyes:

Star, I love you Brother, but a while back you asked me if there would ever be a post I wouldn't try to bring my politics into? So now I'll ask you the same?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 10:29:50 AM
these are the clowns your worried about?

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 22, 2023, 10:17:06 AMAs unpleasant as it may be, what they are saying is largely the truth.


according to them.  there are many truths and opinions about a great many things. 
I choose the opinion that this war is the best chance to bury russia for decades and remove them from the international board.  and whats it costing us?  equipment bought and paid for decades ago, a revitalized NATO, a rounding error in the west GDP.
and I wasnt trying to get political Slash, I was just pointing out the source.  we should all be well past just taking a video at face value.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 22, 2023, 01:15:44 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 10:38:07 AM...we should all be well past just taking a video at face value.

I often find it somewhere between sickening and hilarious that most of these videos are by folks whose sole qualification is that they know where to get a good microphone and how to produce a decent YouTube video or podcast.

Very few of them had any real concept of modern warfare prior to them waking up one day and suddenly realizing they could get "views" (and thus a chance at monetization) by presenting their opinion with passion and hint of conspiracy.

And yes, the question of 'if the Ukrainians are winning fast enough (or not at all)' is sadly becoming "political," even if we don't like it.

In the US, with the Presidential election next year, there are already folks on both sides of the political equation staking out opposite stances on supporting Ukraine; there are already YouTubers and podcasters lining up on both sides.

All of this is sad and sickening because every minute there are good men and women, fighting, losing limbs and dying in this criminal war.

I am now re-reading the great book by David Hackett Fisher called "Washington's Crossing" about Washington's crossing of the Delaware and miracle victory at Trenton just after Christmas, 1776. The American army was in a really horrid state prior to that battle. I am glad there weren't any podcasters around to tell them and Washington how badly they were losing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on August 22, 2023, 01:33:13 PM
I've seen a couple geopolitical guys say that neither side can afford to wage this war and loose young working class people.  Hence why why the sketchy Russians are kidnapping Ukrainian kids by the thousands.  Geopolitically Russia is already lost, and Ukraine has deep wounds that will take years to repair.  Both sides are headed for deep economic crash when this is over, so I would agree, they should both stop.  Unfortunately the Russians are such tools, they won't stop, they will ride this to destruction.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 01:35:03 PM
and, as has been mentioned before, a 24 hour news cycle during D-Day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 01:36:09 PM
Quote from: Skoop on August 22, 2023, 01:33:13 PMand Ukraine has deep wounds that will take years to repair


Ukraine will hopefully get some modern form of the Marshall Plan.
the russians can go fuck themselves.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 22, 2023, 01:53:14 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 22, 2023, 01:15:44 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 10:38:07 AM...we should all be well past just taking a video at face value.

I often find it somewhere between sickening and hilarious that most of these videos are by folks whose sole qualification is that they know where to get a good microphone and how to produce a decent YouTube video or podcast.

Very few of them had any real concept of modern warfare prior to them waking up one day and suddenly realizing they could get "views" (and thus a chance at monetization) by presenting their opinion with passion and hint of conspiracy.

And yes, the question of 'if the Ukrainians are winning fast enough (or not at all)' is sadly becoming "political," even if we don't like it.

In the US, with the Presidential election next year, there are already folks on both sides of the political equation staking out opposite stances on supporting Ukraine; there are already YouTubers and podcasters lining up on both sides.

All of this is sad and sickening because every minute there are good men and women, fighting, losing limbs and dying in this criminal war.

I am now re-reading the great book by David Hackett Fisher called "Washington's Crossing" about Washington's crossing of the Delaware and miracle victory at Trenton just after Christmas, 1776. The American army was in a really horrid state prior to that battle. I am glad there weren't any podcasters around to tell them and Washington how badly they were losing.

I'm really curious what it takes to qualify as "news" that is worthy of being considered. Mainstream media sources have widely been discredited as being trustworthy, which is what caused the proliferation of alternative news sources on youtube and other social media. Now these guys seem to be automatically discredited, not based on the content of what they are reporting, but instead on the lack of some magical level of credentialing that would qualify them as strategic or military experts. Find me a video of some warmonger who wants this conflict to continue until the Russian military is utterly destroyed and then make the case for why it should be discredited.

You rightly complain about how the war is becoming political by opposite sides staking claims, but then seem to be doing the very same thing, unless I'm just misunderstanding your point. Yes, it is sad that people continue to die in this criminal war, yet whenever someone stands up and says the war should end, they are automatically targeted as being, pro-Russian, defeatist, or worse. Such a bizarre irony. Those who claim to be so sickened by the loss of life and destruction seem to be the very ones who want it to continue.  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 22, 2023, 02:35:03 PM
Quote from: Skoop on August 22, 2023, 01:33:13 PMI've seen a couple geopolitical guys say that neither side can afford to wage this war and loose young working class people.  Hence why why the sketchy Russians are kidnapping Ukrainian kids by the thousands.  Geopolitically Russia is already lost, and Ukraine has deep wounds that will take years to repair.  Both sides are headed for deep economic crash when this is over, so I would agree, they should both stop.  Unfortunately the Russians are such tools, they won't stop, they will ride this to destruction.

I can see the Ukraine being very successful doing an after the conflict 'war bride' social engineering thing. "Come on over here, get a job, get married to a gorgeous Ukraine bride and bang out the kids."
It's worked before elsewhere.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 02:38:31 PM
how about the west lets Ukraine decide when the war ends and at the same time give them every means available to achieve that result.
they feel they can and will keep going.  thats the opinion that means most to me, not some think tanks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 22, 2023, 02:42:12 PM
JH
United States was late to both World Wars because of politics, no reason to think that any major European conflict would not be the same.

Probably the most recent example.
3 years roughly to get involved in the Bosnian Conflict in 1995.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 22, 2023, 03:20:54 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 02:38:31 PMhow about the west lets Ukraine decide when the war ends and at the same time give them every means available to achieve that result.
they feel they can and will keep going.  thats the opinion that means most to me, not some think tanks.

I agree with the first part of your suggestion. The West should let Ukraine decide when the war should end. So far, I believe the West has several times discouraged and possibly outright prevented them from doing so. As far as "giving them every means available", on this, I cannot agree.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 03:58:39 PM
well we aint giving them carriers, subs and nukes.
long range missiles and aircraft should have been provided sooner.
the UAF are already hitting moscow on their own and now routinely shutting down their airports.
the strike the other day taking out two Backfires could have happened a lot sooner and led to a
lot less Ukrainian civilian deaths from cruise missile attacks.
what equipment or type is specifically in your no go zone?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 22, 2023, 04:38:06 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 03:58:39 PMwell we aint giving them carriers, subs and nukes.
long range missiles and aircraft should have been provided sooner.
the UAF are already hitting moscow on their own and now routinely shutting down their airports.
the strike the other day taking out two Backfires could have happened a lot sooner and led to a
lot less Ukrainian civilian deaths from cruise missile attacks.
what equipment or type is specifically in your no go zone?
Sharks with Frikkin lasers beams attached to their heads
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 22, 2023, 04:49:21 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 03:58:39 PMwell we aint giving them carriers, subs and nukes.
long range missiles and aircraft should have been provided sooner.
the UAF are already hitting moscow on their own and now routinely shutting down their airports.
the strike the other day taking out two Backfires could have happened a lot sooner and led to a
lot less Ukrainian civilian deaths from cruise missile attacks.
what equipment or type is specifically in your no go zone?

I haven't made a list, but much like obscenity, or hard-core pornography, in the words of the great Justice Potter Stewart, "I know it, when I see it."

Broadly, I'd describe it as anything that could jeopardize US national security, American lives, both military and civilian, or the stability of the free world. A broad range of weaponry and platforms would fall into this categorization, and a broad range would not. I think it's largely, but not entirely, common sense.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 04:58:37 PM
ATACMS?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 22, 2023, 05:07:49 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 04:58:37 PMATACMS?

I think it could depend on the variant, the payload, the method of employment, targets, etc. It's not always going to be so simple as spinning a wheel and seeing on what system it lands.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 22, 2023, 06:01:57 PM
The area around Robotyne is now significantly secured that the UAF devoted a significant amount of their transport and troops to finally evacuate the town of civilians. 

Most of the people left were elderly and women.  I saw a few interviews with them and they said that the men were largely "taken" quite a while ago.  Clearly not evacuated for humanitarian reasons as the Russians had no problem leaving the town occupied by meat shields.

To where?  They had no idea, but they were considered to be "unreliable" by the occupying authorities.

There were a lot of tear jerkers in the videos of the people finally getting out, a lot in Bradleys. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 22, 2023, 06:56:40 PM
Andrew, I assume that this means that the Russians stole all their Skodas and school buses?

Levity aside, I agree with Jarhead that the loss of life in this conflict is appalling and tragic.  There are clearly some good guys and some bad guys in this conflict, but that doesn't absolve the good guys of all scrutiny nor should it mean that asking tough questions makes us sympathetic to the bad guys.

I still don't understand, as a country, how we haven't been able to just produce about 10,000,000 extra artillery rounds and get those to the Ukrainians.  I assume it's because we relying on the free market and profit motives to make it happen?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 22, 2023, 07:25:54 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 22, 2023, 06:56:40 PMAndrew, I assume that this means that the Russians stole all their Skodas and school buses?

Levity aside, I agree with Jarhead that the loss of life in this conflict is appalling and tragic.  There are clearly some good guys and some bad guys in this conflict, but that doesn't absolve the good guys of all scrutiny nor should it mean that asking tough questions makes us sympathetic to the bad guys.

I still don't understand, as a country, how we haven't been able to just produce about 10,000,000 extra artillery rounds and get those to the Ukrainians.  I assume it's because we relying on the free market and profit motives to make it happen?
As my job deals with scaling manufacturing in a highly demanding, exacting precision and very regulated (for good reasons) industry I can sympathies with the manufacturers here.  US has not invested in being able to scale up in manufacturing of critical defense consumable infrastructure for over 40 years and suddenly they are being asked to go to wartime footing in under 12 months.
Make no mistake one of the greatest benefits for the US defense industry and the Us economy from this conflict is that finally the non sexy shit like capital equipment, business continuity planning, Kaizens, lean six sigma and resources are finally being poured and applied to the US arms industry.  This will be a bigger benefit to the US for the next generations over any type of new tank/plane or ship platform.  That is why this war will eventually make the US a more formidable adversary to any potential conflict in the next 30 years.
Napoleons quote still rings true - "The amateurs discuss tactics: the professionals logistics"
PS what do you think won the war in WW2 - The troops or the material advantages that the US manufacturing base brought?



 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 22, 2023, 07:36:09 PM
Quote from: Con on August 22, 2023, 07:25:54 PMPS what do you think won the war in WW2 - The troops or the material advantages that the US manufacturing base brought?


  A combination -- after all on Guadalcanal, for a while, it really was all on the US Marines.  On the other hand the Army proved to be pretty good at matching US material to what the troops could do and vis-versa.
And of course the Germans and Japan had pretty much shot themselves in the logistic feet a few dozen times before the
US really got rolling on them.
See for example Adam Tooze The Wages of Destruction on just how fast the German economy was falling apart even before the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 22, 2023, 10:29:25 PM
I think the reason so many here in the U.S. are beginning to question the cost of this war is that the U.S. has committed to north of $100 Billion to support Ukraine while no other European country has yet to commit to even $10 Billion. Is that just because we are so much more rich than everybody else, or is America going to get stuck with paying the bill for this European war? I think our President should tell everybody else, 'We'll match the largest figure of whoever antes-up the most' then wait to see how fast the Piggy Bank gets full.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 22, 2023, 10:33:35 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on August 22, 2023, 07:36:09 PM
Quote from: Con on August 22, 2023, 07:25:54 PMPS what do you think won the war in WW2 - The troops or the material advantages that the US manufacturing base brought?


  A combination -- after all on Guadalcanal, for a while, it really was all on the US Marines.  On the other hand the Army proved to be pretty good at matching US material to what the troops could do and vis-versa.
And of course the Germans and Japan had pretty much shot themselves in the logistic feet a few dozen times before the
US really got rolling on them.
See for example Adam Tooze The Wages of Destruction on just how fast the German economy was falling apart even before the war.
I just finished Phillip O'Briens book "How the War was won"  While it focused on the attrition caused by Allied Bombing and Naval power to corrode the Axis ability to supply material to the troops on the battlefield its chock full of data on US and Axis manufacturing.  If more than half of your war material is destroyed before it can even be deployed and your manufacturing base is significantly underperforming your opponent and in steep decline that's what will eventually ensure victory.  IMHO it was a very good read for those who like to look at the logistics of WW2 with some pertinent parallels to the Ukraine conflict (I was drawn to O'Briens book based on his articles and insights on Ukraine).

https://www.amazon.com/How-War-Was-Won-Cambridge/dp/110871689X
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 22, 2023, 10:43:22 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 22, 2023, 10:29:25 PMI think the reason so many here in the U.S. are beginning to question the cost of this war is that the U.S. has committed to north of $100 Billion to support Ukraine while no other European country has yet to commit to even $10 Billion. Is that just because we are so much more rich than everybody else, or is America going to get stuck with paying the bill for this European war? I think our President should tell everybody else, 'We'll match the largest figure of whoever antes-up the most' then wait to see how fast the Piggy Bank gets full.

Here is a very good article breaking down the aid packages - Its missing the last two months but has a good analysis of the magnitude, the composition of military aid and the comparisons both by total dollars but also by % of GDP which is a measure of how much it hurts other countries to be sending aid.
I think it gives a much better insight rather than using a somewhat inaccurate 100B figure.
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts

Updated one which is current to August -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/04/ukraine-war-us-spending/

Tells similar outcome.  Interesting quote though
"We could do it forever," O'Hanlon said of this rate of funding and support for Ukraine. "It's not economically unsustainable. But it's probably politically unsustainable."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 23, 2023, 12:33:52 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 22, 2023, 06:56:40 PMAndrew, I assume that this means that the Russians stole all their Skodas and school buses?

Levity aside, I agree with Jarhead that the loss of life in this conflict is appalling and tragic.  There are clearly some good guys and some bad guys in this conflict, but that doesn't absolve the good guys of all scrutiny nor should it mean that asking tough questions makes us sympathetic to the bad guys.

I still don't understand, as a country, how we haven't been able to just produce about 10,000,000 extra artillery rounds and get those to the Ukrainians.  I assume it's because we relying on the free market and profit motives to make it happen?

I generally try to stay largely objective and while I personally have a very strong and not hidden bias for Ukraine I am not one that will ever let my bias get involved with my analysis of this as a person who is a historian.

So I agree, I am strongly questioning Ukrainian strategy, and what kinds and types of support given to them and when.

I also accept the macro level issues that caused the Russians to start this war and don't absolve the west from them entirely. 

I still hold that this conflict could have been avoided as far back as 2017 or so if we had sufficient leadership that recognized the issues and actually engaged both sides and worked to come up with tangible solutions.

Still, all said the Ukrainians are not losing the war.  They haven't lost a major battlefield engagement since Bakhmut and Bakhmut was a disaster for the Russians.  They however aren't winning it the NATO way despite the gear given to them.  They're doing it as most of their high command was trained and learned, the Soviet way.

It's working, just not the way we in the west would like.

And yes, I despise the loss of life.  I've said it before, I keep saying it.  The sane, human, logical thing to do is for everyone to sit down and just stop this insanity.  I don't want to see Russia collapse as much as I hate Putin's tyranny because I don't want a nuclear power to fall into the hands of many even more mad men.

But I also fear more than anything a complete Russian victory.  I studied Russia.  I did a talk circuit on the Holodomor.  I know what Russia will do to the Ukrainians in victory and it will be a new Holocaust because they did it before.

I also see future wars in this.  This is a madness beyond the capability to deal with with platitudes. 

I constantly wish for sanity to prevail somehow but it won't. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 23, 2023, 04:47:02 AM
^Another well put summary, thanks Sir Andrew. I came to post something, but once again you put into writing better than I am able to.

Meanwhile, there's been two new additions by Lawrence Freedman to his sub stack. Out of all individuals, if I'd have to name one who's able to write holistic, objective summaries, it is him.

First, there's his view on how the "Global South" is viewing to war. In parenthesis, as it is not a single entity with a united view, but several important nations, also participating in G20 as he points out. It would seem Ukraine's diplomatic efforts are carrying some results as well, especially as so far Putin has been not able to offer any diplomatic solution to end the war apart that Ukraine would need to agree to all his demands, while Ukraine's 10-point plan often referring to UN Charter can be seen as more of a base for future negotiations.

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-global-south-brics-and-the-g20?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2


As for whether there's going to be a definitive battlefield event ending the war, if there ever was hope for one, it is not likely to happen in the near future. Here, Freedman discusses the current status quo in the battlefield, also rebutts the imho quite silly WaPo articles, or the unnamed military sources behind them.

https://samf.substack.com/p/ukraines-offensive-is-it-failing


Putin seems to be counting on the resolve of the Western nations to wither, but so far it does not seem to be happening. There's a large coalition of willing arming and supporting Ukraine, and said support is in no way stretching them (too) thin, outside 155mm shells perhaps. At the same time, production is ramping up, and there seems to be a long(er) term plan coming into play. For instance the F-16s, on one hand they could have been delivered earlier, but they are being delivered now, as a sign western support will carry well into 2024.

The view that Putin will not stop here if an armistice is negotiated seems to gain understanding outside Eastern European nations as well. If you checked the previous article on nations giving highest support per their GDP, it is the neighbouring countries. For a reason, I might add.

   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 08:37:35 AM
I don't think it is debatable that this conflict has turned into a war of attrition. It is not about whether the West continues to "arm" Ukraine, I think it is more about whether Ukraine will have soldiers to field those Western arms. A war of attrition favors Moscow. This is not the kind of war that Ukraine can possibly win on its own. So, there better be a decisive or, as you put it, "definitive" battlefield event that ends the war, otherwise, I believe the consequences will be extremely dire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 23, 2023, 10:07:05 AM
Then again, to be truly able to use her population advantage, Russia would need to call a mobilisation. So far they've mostly recruited non-Russian ethnicities from poor rural areas, where wages paid in Ukraine are quite formidable. I am not sure what would happen if herrenvolk themselves would need to join the fight in large numbers. So far war has been intentionally non visible in major cities.

For Ukraine, on the other hand, it is an existential struggle, to capitulate would mean a brutal occupation.

Above said, I don't disagree with what you wrote as such.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 23, 2023, 11:12:58 AM
Con, I tried to read the articles you provided. The WAPO article can't accessed without giving an E-Mail address which I won't do. The Council on Foreign Relations article I did read and it clearly and rightly lists the U.S. as far and above the largest provider of all types of aid to Ukraine especially, 'pledged' aid. Which maybe as it should be, but if this war threatens European peace more so than our own, shouldn't they be the principal contributors?

This war looks likely to last another year at least, maybe 2 or more. It's only prudent to ask what the cost will be and if it's worth the price?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 23, 2023, 11:23:12 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 23, 2023, 11:12:58 AMCon, I tried to read the articles you provided. The WAPO article can't accessed without giving an E-Mail address which I won't do. The Council on Foreign Relations article I did read and it clearly and rightly lists the U.S. as far and above the largest provider of all types of aid to Ukraine especially, 'pledged' aid. Which maybe as it should be, but if this war threatens European peace more so than our own, shouldn't they be the principal contributors?

This war looks likely to last another year at least, maybe 2 or more. It's only prudent to ask what the cost will be and if it's worth the price?

Here's a reliable NGO with trackers on aid on Ukraine. As you have observed, as the worlds greatest military power, US is leading the military aid to Ukraine. In pure numbers that is.

If you look at the per GDP aid, US is actually at #21, with Eastern European nations doing their most to help Ukraine.

Financial aid, EU institution itself is the greatest provider of aid, while individual EU nations add to that as well.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 23, 2023, 11:28:18 AM
^Actually, the pie chart, second from top on left column, is the most easy to access.

It is based on money, not percentage, but roughly speaking it has US as having provided some 55 % of all military aid, some 30 % of all financial aid, and some 20+% of all humanitarian aid.

If each pie reflects their true portion, that is.

But for once, it is a coalition where everyone's carrying their weight, more or less.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 23, 2023, 12:06:21 PM
Quote from: Con on August 22, 2023, 07:25:54 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 22, 2023, 06:56:40 PMAndrew, I assume that this means that the Russians stole all their Skodas and school buses?

Levity aside, I agree with Jarhead that the loss of life in this conflict is appalling and tragic.  There are clearly some good guys and some bad guys in this conflict, but that doesn't absolve the good guys of all scrutiny nor should it mean that asking tough questions makes us sympathetic to the bad guys.

I still don't understand, as a country, how we haven't been able to just produce about 10,000,000 extra artillery rounds and get those to the Ukrainians.  I assume it's because we relying on the free market and profit motives to make it happen?
As my job deals with scaling manufacturing in a highly demanding, exacting precision and very regulated (for good reasons) industry I can sympathies with the manufacturers here.  US has not invested in being able to scale up in manufacturing of critical defense consumable infrastructure for over 40 years and suddenly they are being asked to go to wartime footing in under 12 months.
Make no mistake one of the greatest benefits for the US defense industry and the Us economy from this conflict is that finally the non sexy shit like capital equipment, business continuity planning, Kaizens, lean six sigma and resources are finally being poured and applied to the US arms industry.  This will be a bigger benefit to the US for the next generations over any type of new tank/plane or ship platform.  That is why this war will eventually make the US a more formidable adversary to any potential conflict in the next 30 years.
Napoleons quote still rings true - "The amateurs discuss tactics: the professionals logistics"
PS what do you think won the war in WW2 - The troops or the material advantages that the US manufacturing base brought?

Both of course, on the US/West side anyway.


Strickly material advantages on the Eastern Front though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 23, 2023, 12:07:40 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 22, 2023, 05:07:49 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 22, 2023, 04:58:37 PMATACMS?

I think it could depend on the variant, the payload, the method of employment, targets, etc. It's not always going to be so simple as spinning a wheel and seeing on what system it lands.

Well France has made this a moot point now..... so give'm some ATACMS!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 12:22:13 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on August 23, 2023, 11:12:58 AMCon, I tried to read the articles you provided. The WAPO article can't accessed without giving an E-Mail address which I won't do. The Council on Foreign Relations article I did read and it clearly and rightly lists the U.S. as far and above the largest provider of all types of aid to Ukraine especially, 'pledged' aid. Which maybe as it should be, but if this war threatens European peace more so than our own, shouldn't they be the principal contributors?

This war looks likely to last another year at least, maybe 2 or more. It's only prudent to ask what the cost will be and if it's worth the price?

You would think that the European interest in restoring peace and stability would be paramount. Unfortunately, prolonging and escalating a war that will result in the removal of Russia as a geopolitical competitor for global markets, no matter the cost to others, including American citizens and the rest of the world at large, seems to be the overriding motive of the US economic machine, of the MIC and others.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 23, 2023, 12:22:39 PM
Prigo's plane has fallen from a window?


edit/update:

QuoteWagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a plane which crashed in Russia, killing all 10 on board. He was believed to be on board the plane.

Earlier, a Wagner-linked Telegram channel Grey Zone reported that the jet was shot down by air defences in Tver region, north of Moscow. Prigozhin led a failed mutiny against the Russian armed forces in June.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 23, 2023, 01:00:46 PM
I got that early news on Twitter. Interesting stuff that is Russian politics (who knew that in a kleptocracy promises mean shit?).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 23, 2023, 01:10:35 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on August 23, 2023, 12:22:39 PMPrigo's plane has fallen from a window?


edit/update:

QuoteWagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a plane which crashed in Russia, killing all 10 on board. He was believed to be on board the plane.

Earlier, a Wagner-linked Telegram channel Grey Zone reported that the jet was shot down by air defences in Tver region, north of Moscow. Prigozhin led a failed mutiny against the Russian armed forces in June.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733
:beermug[1]:
I was trying to come up with a window quip as well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 01:11:04 PM
Being on the passenger list and being an actual passenger are two totally different things.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 23, 2023, 01:14:32 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 01:11:04 PMBeing on the passenger list and being an actual passenger are two totally different things.
Honestly would you really be surprised if he got bumped off?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 01:24:12 PM
Quote from: Con on August 23, 2023, 01:14:32 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 01:11:04 PMBeing on the passenger list and being an actual passenger are two totally different things.
Honestly would you really be surprised if he got bumped off?


Of course not, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he and others wanted everyone to think that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on August 23, 2023, 01:29:57 PM
Assuming the story is true, and Prigozhin is dead, I am surprised only because:

a) He didn't fall out of a window, or alternatively was poisoned with  polonium-210
b) He lived approximately 30 days longer than I was predicting

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 23, 2023, 01:56:29 PM
Witnesses say the plane was hit with a SAM.

Video seems consistent with that. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on August 23, 2023, 02:05:28 PM
Hmmm. If Prigo wasn't on that plane, things might get interesting. Then again, if he in fact was on that plane, things might get interesting then too.

What I know his men are fiercely loyal to him. Of course, push seems to have come to a shove, whether lip service or not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 23, 2023, 02:13:35 PM
Wonder who the other "lucky" folks were in the plane? How did they score that lucky ticket.

Interesting that at about the same time, there are reports that General Sergei Surovikin, who apparently participated in or may have supported the coup attempt, has been officially "fired." Let me predict his future:  He trips on a spoon and falls out a 20th story window on his way to the bathroom.

Also, I think it is interesting that after a long silence, Prigo released a video yesterday talking about how Wagner would make Africa 'more free' and Russian 'greater.'  Was this a last attempt to save himself? We will never know, and in the end its not really important.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/22/wagner-prigozhin-recruiting-post-russia-rebellion-video-africa-putin (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/22/wagner-prigozhin-recruiting-post-russia-rebellion-video-africa-putin)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 23, 2023, 02:28:00 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 12:22:13 PMYou would think that the European interest in restoring peace and stability would be paramount. Unfortunately, prolonging and escalating a war that will result in the removal of Russia as a geopolitical competitor for global markets, no matter the cost to others, including American citizens and the rest of the world at large, seems to be the overriding motive of the US economic machine, of the MIC and others.


or maybe, since they exist next door to them, they know exactly how shitty and morally bankrupt russia is.
it will not honor peace deals or peace treaties and sooner or later its appetite is going to looking for the next country to try and absorb.  50 some odd years of violent oppression kinda makes you not trust the people that oppressed you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 23, 2023, 02:28:39 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on August 23, 2023, 10:07:05 AMThen again, to be truly able to use her population advantage, Russia would need to call a mobilisation....

I wonder if one reason we haven't seen this is because of paranoia on Putin's part. By some accounts he is having a hard time keeping hard-liners at bay.

Maybe he is thinking he really doesn't want to arm another 1 or 2 million Russians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 23, 2023, 02:31:30 PM
russias population issues have been covered a fair bit earlier in the thread.
simply put, they cant field an army like they used to and keep the country running at the same time.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 23, 2023, 02:58:35 PM
 :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4O84mbXMAA1XmW?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 23, 2023, 03:13:44 PM
It was widely reported in May that Ukraine's CIC Zaluzhnyi refused a meeting with NATO to go over his overall strategy for the counteroffensive. 

Well, apparently in just the last two days he and some of the Ukraine high command finally sat down with NATO to discuss the overall strategy and he was pretty much taken to the mattresses by NATO officers. 

Some of the key points were:

1. Ukraine has opened far too many axis of advance in the offensive and in most places too far to mutually support.

2. The Bakhmut axis has had no true strategic value, is not causing the Russians to have to redeploy due to its extreme distance from the main thrust to defend and is chewing up large amounts of Ukrainian resources that would've best been spent in the Zaporizhzhia front. 

3. The Ukrainian Mid level and Junior officers are not employing NATO equipment efficiently or correctly.  They are primarily using their armor in piecemeal fire support roles operating in platoons or even sections that are not mutually supporting.  Once finally committed after too much delay, they are primarily using their tanks in stand off engagements as infantry support, not as a maneuver element.

4. Ukrainian troops are very effective but the UAF is falling into Soviet style command and control systems where NCO's and Junior Officers are being given little individual initiative and training.

5. Inflicting casualties while taking few losses is becoming far too heavily emphasized rather than seizing territory and displacing Russian positions.  Several times the UAF has taken ground and then surrendered it so that they could invite a Russian counterattack into premade traps.  This is the old style "Body Count" problem that leads down the path to attrition warfare.

To that end Zaluzhnyi was encouraged to end the offensive in Bakhmut completely, stop the counterattacks in Adrivka and concentrate his forces on just one of the advance axis in Zaporizhzhia.

Will the UAF high command follow this?  Who knows.  It was said back in April that UAF officers were largely ignoring their NATO training doctrine, and were being told to do this from high up the chain in command.  They seem very tied to the idea of pressure everywhere making the balloon pop rather than a pinprick.

Considering the problems in morale and supply the Russians are having in Zaporizhzhia there has been some success to this, but as is noted this strategy is one that could potentially take years to complete. 

History will have to judge who was right.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 23, 2023, 03:44:52 PM
I wonder what their (UAF) thinking is behind these decisions? Punish the bear? Make it bleed for what it has done? Concern that capturing larger tracks of territory will make them more vulnerable than what is occurring now?
Yes, you drive purposely towards the sea and the Russkies will throw a whole tonne of shit at you to stop you, that is something you plan for, but maybe they don't trust their ability to follow up such a drive with anti-air assets and artillery support?

I don't know.

Is there a game afoot to maximize western aide/support to siphon off a portion? (corruption is real, but hoipefully overstated). That is a WAG, but who knows.

I suspect though that it is senior leadership and their soviet paradigms
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 23, 2023, 05:36:53 PM
Interesting stuff, all!  A few general responses:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 06:48:37 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 23, 2023, 05:36:53 PMJarhead, I understand and appreciate your cynicism about the motives of various actors in the West.  But do you really think Ukraine is in imminent danger of losing the war?  The costs that they're sustaining are murderously high, but my sense is that the atrocities of the Russian invaders have driven their cost tolerance to levels the Russians can only imagine.  As has been pointed out elsewhere, it is a war of survival for the Ukrainians, while the Russians have many options short of national cultural extinction.[/li][/list]

"Imminent" danger? No. Eventual danger, absolutely. I do not think Ukraine can win a war against Russia that will continue to grind on in attrition. Defeat is a statistical certainty.  I think you may underestimate the Russian tolerance for war too. If you leave the cities and head out to the countryside, most support the war and Putin, and believe the propaganda they have been fed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 23, 2023, 07:09:57 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 06:48:37 PMI do not think Ukraine can win a war against Russia that will continue to grind on in attrition.


something something Vietnam vs US.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 07:41:20 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 23, 2023, 07:09:57 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 06:48:37 PMI do not think Ukraine can win a war against Russia that will continue to grind on in attrition.


something something Vietnam vs US.

No comparison whatsoever. Apples and oranges.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 23, 2023, 07:46:50 PM
so guess who has shrapnel holes all over their crashed airplane.  :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 23, 2023, 07:48:07 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 07:41:20 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 23, 2023, 07:09:57 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 23, 2023, 06:48:37 PMI do not think Ukraine can win a war against Russia that will continue to grind on in attrition.


something something Vietnam vs US.

No comparison whatsoever. Apples and oranges.

youre right, we were a much more capable country and military then then russia is now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 23, 2023, 07:52:10 PM
Perhaps.  Lots of differences between the two, to be sure.  But many of those differences (not all) favor the Ukrainians.  And I think it's fair to point to the similarities as well.

Like you, I am leery of Russia's cost tolerance.  WW 2 was an appalling example of that cultural trait. 

Which is all the more reason why unflagging support for Ukraine is important.  The trick, I think, is to ask tough, critical questions about the effectiveness and aims of that support, with an eye towards what's important, even as you continue to support the fundamental cause.  I'm pretty sure we agree on that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 23, 2023, 07:53:50 PM
On one hand, the problem is that Russia is also facing an existential crisis, just not the same one as (inflicted upon) Ukraine, nor the same one Russia is propagandizing as coming from Ukraine. If the current Russian government doesn't win control of Ukraine, they die (metaphorically and maybe literally); and thus Russia as a nation will fall apart and in that sense die (maybe more literally, too).

On the other hand, the longer Russia fights to take Ukraine, the faster their own existential threat as a governmental nation ramps up. Their list of allies grows thin, and some of them (China especially) want Russia to spiral into disaster in order to seize resources and means of production to stave off their own accelerating slow-motion existential implosion. (Evergrande is finally going bankrupt, as expected though somewhat later than expected, and that's definitely going to set off another trail of dominoes in China.)

Russia's only real chance was to force a Ukranian collapse in 24-to-48 hours. Every day since then has eroded Russia a little faster than Russia was already eroding before the war, and then the sanctions started pressing down.

Russia can't seriously mobilize, partly due to risks of revolution and military revolt against the mafia regime; partly due to needing to keep workers busy bailing out the ship of state and supplying what trickles they can to their own troops; and partly because the Russian logistic capability is so poor they have a slowly shrinking limit how many troops of various kinds (including air) they can support.

I'm sure the UAF understands most or all of this. They're playing for a combined pressure collapse in several ways.

But neither can Russia's government just quit and go home. They weren't going to survive in the medium-run, and they've whittled away the length of that run.


Meanwhile, I hope Prigo has finally become more representative of my Prego jokes. When I went to bed last night, the chatter was "Can Prigo force an shift of the axis of support or whatever?" Today I get home from an extra busy day and it's meatball-and-sauce time!

(If that was a SAM, he may indeed have gone out a window in good Russian style...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 23, 2023, 08:05:31 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 23, 2023, 07:52:10 PMWhich is all the more reason why unflagging support for Ukraine is important.  The trick, I think, is to ask tough, critical questions about the effectiveness and aims of that support, with an eye towards what's important, even as you continue to support the fundamental cause.  I'm pretty sure we agree on that.

Yep! -- and by the same token I don't think it hurts to be as suspicious as JH over various motives of the support. Heck, I've been on record since kickoff last year about being suspicious of Ukraine's national role as a shady neutral supporter of a one-world totalitarian government (run by actual damned Satanists no less)! I don't think becoming a NATO member (or candidate member) will mollify that a lot. (...hm, this would be a good time for me to poke some fun back at myself with a tinfoil hat smiley, but I can't find something proper... suggestions welcome!  :twirl: )

Life is complicated. But I'm willing to root for the population of a tool of supervillains, and thus for their armed forces, too, against the armies working directly for a supervillain.

Whether the side I'm rooting for can win, is another question entirely. But I think the question of their eventual victory is larger (and to be fair potentially more dangerous) than the various operational situations, even though those look to have room for improvement. (Maybe lots and lots of room.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 23, 2023, 10:39:27 PM
I believe the Vietnamese had a massive jungle-covered, completely undeveloped landscape to fight in back in the 60's along with a centuries-old tradition of insurgency against foreign powers, and a willingness to throw-away massive numbers of it's people in order to wear-down it's enemies. Ukraine has none of these. Americans were allowed to speak freely against that war, Russians are not. Where's the similarity?

Ukraine needs everyone of it's precious youth to build a free nation that with it's abundant God-given resources will dwarf Russia economically, diplomatically, and Culturally one day. Not dying over a muddy trench in a ruined landscape. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 23, 2023, 11:16:52 PM
during the first few weeks of the war I recall a lot of talk from the Pentagon about setting up systems and supplies for an insurgency war.  and then the corner was turned and here we are.  you mention undeveloped landscape and Im looking at whats essentially Normandy writ larger.  I would also posit the Ukraine right now is willing to throw massive numbers of its people into winning this war.

QuoteUkraine needs everyone of it's precious youth to build a free nation that with it's abundant God-given resources will dwarf Russia economically, diplomatically, and Culturally one day.

they first need a country that exists to do that in.  right there is the crux of it. the rest is irrelevant if Ukraine ceases to exist.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 24, 2023, 06:00:35 AM
ISW does a good job of explaining how Prigozhin's utility was eroded and the coincidence of Surovkin's removal and how the cover up will likely proceed.  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23-2023

I knew about the two defections from Wagner, and the Russian MoDs attempts to raise it's own PMCs for Africa, but thought they were insufficient to be of threat to Prigozhin.  I also wondered if Prigozhin had used the threat of release of compromising material to keep himself alive.  Hopefully in the next few days or months, the world will learn some very evil secret of the Kremlin, such as who blew up the apartments in Moscow and why; or what the St. Petersburg troll factory actually did.  Or maybe not at all.

I won't even go to the BBC mentioning a second plane (page 4 currently)  https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66599774/page/4  That would be some pretty James Bond villian shit. 
Quote15:05 23 Aug
Data shows second plane flew towards Moscow
Some Russian Telegram channels have speculated that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin might have been on a different plane to the one that crashed today.

The other jet, another Embraer 600, has a registration number RA-02748.

The plane's flight records are partially inaccessible through FlightRadar24, a popular aircraft tracking website.

But data shows it departed from St Petersburg earlier today and flew towards Moscow. The trail disappears near Ostafyevo airport in the Russian capital.

The BBC has been unable to confirm if he was on board.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 24, 2023, 06:19:27 AM
Until his remains are found and confirmed to be his, as far as I'm concerned, he is still alive. It doesn't seem logical. Why would he launch his little coup and then call it off while it was achieving success if he knew doing so would certainly lead to his demise? He's far too much of a ruthless, self-interested animal to fall for that. I just feel like part of the deal he cut with Putin is that he had to disappear in order to permit Putin to save face and prevent others from getting the same idea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 24, 2023, 06:57:12 AM
It was reported that the FSB took hostages from the Wagner leaders' families during the rebellion.  I'm going to have to cite the Moscow Times quoting the Telegraph, even a specific internet search gets buried under yesterday's news.  It is a pretty typical course of action for the FSB going way back, though. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/26/threats-to-wagner-leaders-families-preceded-mutiny-stand-down-telegraph-a81642

The article also states that there were only 8000 Wagner troops marching on Moscow.  The reasons will be a historical mystery to puzzle over.  Even the BBC is still reporting that some experts say the whole rebellion was staged, but it's quite some Maskirovka to shoot down an irreplaceable command and control aircraft, as well as other aircraft and finally blow up a huge fuel depot.  Dr. Condoleeza Rice, who has been vey close to the Kremlin in her role as Secretary of State and NSA briefly considered this possibility.  However, she stated that Putin lost way too much face especially over Prigozhin's statements about what started the war in Ukraine. https://www.newsweek.com/prigozhin-exposes-most-damaging-thing-putin-condoleezza-rice-says-1809125 
Quote"Probably the most damaging thing about this is that Prigozhin said what has been unspoken by those who have supported the war," said Rice, who served as secretary of state from 2005 to 2009 under President George W. Bush. "That this is actually a war that did not have to take place, where hundreds of thousands of Russians did not have to die, where a million people didn't have to flee the country. That, to me, is the most damaging thing that Prigozhin has done [to Putin]."

Prigozhin certainly was/is? ruthless, and clever enough to survive the Kremlin and prosper, but his downfall is impulsivity.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 24, 2023, 09:34:21 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 23, 2023, 03:13:44 PMIt was widely reported in May that Ukraine's CIC Zaluzhnyi refused a meeting with NATO to go over his overall strategy for the counteroffensive. 

Well, apparently in just the last two days he and some of the Ukraine high command finally sat down with NATO to discuss the overall strategy and he was pretty much taken to the mattresses by NATO officers. 

Some of the key points were:

Considering the problems in morale and supply the Russians are having in Zaporizhzhia there has been some success to this, but as is noted this strategy is one that could potentially take years to complete. 

History will have to judge who was right.


  I'm thinking the Ukrainians are probably doing the right thing because firepower is so much deadlier now.
With drones targeting and smart munitions, dodging enemy fire is both a lot harder and a lot more rewarding in the long run.
  So if the Ukrainians keep winning the firepower attrition war, avoid losses and keep pounding the Russians they will win eventually -- it's mathematical certainty.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 24, 2023, 09:40:36 AM
8000 troops might have been enough to take over Moscow under the circumstances at that time (although Prigo couldn't possibly move fast enough to catch Putin to 'rescue' him or whatever {cough}), but Prigo had overtly been hoping for a general military uprising following his lead, and that barely even tried to begin to happen. Without that, he was going to be going up against all of Russia's remaining troops, in Russia, without NATO/EU support, with a split force of his own.

Even leaving aside threats to his family and some other factors, he failed to establish support to continue the coup.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 24, 2023, 09:46:11 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on August 24, 2023, 09:34:21 AMSo if the Ukrainians keep winning the firepower attrition war, avoid losses and keep pounding the Russians they will win eventually -- it's mathematical certainty.

Against a proper Western military that wouldn't be true, or even against a Stalinist military for local comparison. Against a mafia state which is falling apart and which has habitually crippled its military to protect itself from internal revolution, I do think their overall strategy has merit. A lot will depend on whether Ukraine's external logistic support can and will continue, however.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 24, 2023, 10:03:53 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on August 24, 2023, 09:34:21 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 23, 2023, 03:13:44 PMIt was widely reported in May that Ukraine's CIC Zaluzhnyi refused a meeting with NATO to go over his overall strategy for the counteroffensive. 

Well, apparently in just the last two days he and some of the Ukraine high command finally sat down with NATO to discuss the overall strategy and he was pretty much taken to the mattresses by NATO officers. 

Some of the key points were:

Considering the problems in morale and supply the Russians are having in Zaporizhzhia there has been some success to this, but as is noted this strategy is one that could potentially take years to complete. 

History will have to judge who was right.


  I'm thinking the Ukrainians are probably doing the right thing because firepower is so much deadlier now.
With drones targeting and smart munitions, dodging enemy fire is both a lot harder and a lot more rewarding in the long run.
  So if the Ukrainians keep winning the firepower attrition war, avoid losses and keep pounding the Russians they will win eventually -- it's mathematical certainty.

As of August 18, 2023, US intelligence officials acknowledge that Ukrainian military casualties are approaching 500,000. What mathematical certainty are you referring to?

I want to state for the record that these are not facts that bring me any comfort or joy. I am 100% against this illegal war. However, I believe in the truth, reality and cold hard facts. I hope the war ends with an outcome that is acceptable to Ukraine, but I'm quite confident that the time and numbers are not on Ukraine's side.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on August 24, 2023, 10:16:57 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 24, 2023, 10:03:53 AMAs of August 18, 2023, US intelligence officials acknowledge that Ukrainian military casualties are approaching 500,000. What mathematical certainty are you referring to?

I believe that number includes Ukrainian and Russian casualties.

The number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022 is nearing 500,000, the New York Times reported on Friday, citing unnamed U.S. officials.

The officials cautioned that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures, the newspaper said.

Russia's military casualties are approaching 300,000, including as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injuries, the newspaper reported.
Ukrainian deaths were close to 70,000, with 100,000 to 120,000 wounded, it added.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/troop-deaths-injures-ukraine-war-nearing-500000-nyt-citing-us-officials-2023-08-18/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 24, 2023, 10:28:28 AM
The way I see this going down (now) is eventually the UAF will strangle off most if not all of the Russkies line of supply. Bridges of all sorts will be gone. Then what? Supply by sea? They'll still need highway bridges and railway bridges. I don't see the Russkies doing so well. Unfortunately, I also see a refugee crisis/famine in the future in the occupied territory as Russkie soldier's needs take precendent over civilians. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 24, 2023, 11:01:56 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on August 24, 2023, 10:03:53 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on August 24, 2023, 09:34:21 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 23, 2023, 03:13:44 PMIt was widely reported in May that Ukraine's CIC Zaluzhnyi refused a meeting with NATO to go over his overall strategy for the counteroffensive. 

Well, apparently in just the last two days he and some of the Ukraine high command finally sat down with NATO to discuss the overall strategy and he was pretty much taken to the mattresses by NATO officers. 

Some of the key points were:

Considering the problems in morale and supply the Russians are having in Zaporizhzhia there has been some success to this, but as is noted this strategy is one that could potentially take years to complete. 

History will have to judge who was right.


  I'm thinking the Ukrainians are probably doing the right thing because firepower is so much deadlier now.
With drones targeting and smart munitions, dodging enemy fire is both a lot harder and a lot more rewarding in the long run.
  So if the Ukrainians keep winning the firepower attrition war, avoid losses and keep pounding the Russians they will win eventually -- it's mathematical certainty.

As of August 18, 2023, US intelligence officials acknowledge that Ukrainian military casualties are approaching 500,000. What mathematical certainty are you referring to?

I want to state for the record that these are not facts that bring me any comfort or joy. I am 100% against this illegal war. However, I believe in the truth, reality and cold hard facts. I hope the war ends with an outcome that is acceptable to Ukraine, but I'm quite confident that the time and numbers are not on Ukraine's side.

Clearly you are as confident as you claim, but the Ukrainians have been winning against the odds so far and now the odds are shifting steadily in their favor -- If (and this is of course the big if) -- they go on winning the firepower war (ie, their weapons with apparently better targeting and better targetting priorities and better strategic understanding than either NATO or the Russians -- steadily destroy and degrade Russian fire effectiveness across the board day after day)-- anyway IF, they steadily win the firepower war eventually there will be an inflection point so obvious to everyone that the Ukrainians will push on to their objectives -- which are after all very limited -- and effectively win the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 24, 2023, 11:20:21 AM
Strictly speaking, Ukraine won't win the war until they annoy the Russians out of continuing to fight. Taking back the Donbass and Crimea (and anything related between them) won't necessarily end the war.

For that matter, Russia could pull a North Korea and keep the war going in an indefinite stalemate.

Or like China, they may declare themselves to be in a permanent state of war with Ukraine, or rather in their view Ukrainian occupiers (instead of against the whole world like China, but hey maybe go back to the Comintern/USSR model on that as well), and simply shift their means around to something more doable for ongoing current circumstances and capabilities.

Even a Russian governmental collapse wouldn't necessarily end the war per se. But the fighting could stop for an indefinite and protracted period until when-if-ever the new regime(s) make actual peace with Ukraine's government.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 24, 2023, 11:26:47 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 24, 2023, 11:20:21 AMStrictly speaking, Ukraine won't win the war until they annoy the Russians out of continuing to fight. Taking back the Donbass and Crimea (and anything related between them) won't necessarily end the war.


True, but annihilating the Russian army makes for a good bargaining chip.

PS: for that matter, if Ukraine and Belarus join NATO, who is Russia going to use its power against?  Is there a hapless central Asian place they can bomb
into the Stone Age?    Surely no one would seriously miss Afghanistan, even the Taliban wants to go somewhere else.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 24, 2023, 12:18:34 PM
The figure of 500,000 casualties total did not include Ukrainian civilian casualties I believe. Two Hundred Thousand military losses PLUS however many civilian losses add up to...who knows?

Ukraine is mostly undeveloped but NOT jungle-covered which makes hiding a lot easier doesn't it? Look at the maps and you'll see villages and towns all over the whole region, not at all like Vietnam. And it's almost all open territory as far as the drone can see. Where would insurgents hide? Where can armies hide? You get more than 5 guys run into a house and arty follows immediately behind. That's precisely  why Ukraine cannot throw large numbers of it's soldiers into this war because they simply wouldn't survive the lethality of modern weapons. Any group larger than platoon-strength is seen and almost immediately destroyed. Same for the Russkies. Somebody real smart is going to get this figured-out but before then, no military formations large enough to be decisive in combat can survive to become decisive.

On the whole Prigo thing, we are back to the Russian dolls inside each other until you get to the last doll, who can figure it all out? I recall Churchill's line that Russia is a mystery, inside a puzzle, surrounded by an enigma or some such. Still is.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 24, 2023, 03:04:50 PM
I'd suggest that concentrated formations in the field are only vulnerable so long as each side retains enough artillery and enough spotting resources to target troop concentrations.  While this doesn't guarantee a victory by either side in a war of attrition, it does suggest that breakthroughs are possible.

The collapse of the German Army in 1918 might be one model to aspire to.  Of course, it was a near-run thing, and I don't know that the French or the British (or even the Americans, who got off almost scot free by comparison) were delighted to pay the price required to win that war.

The humanitarian cost in Ukraine has been catastrophic.  But I'm not sure that concluding the war on its current terms will do anything to prevent that same calamity from happening again, once Putin and his kleptocrat buddies catch their breath.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 24, 2023, 03:22:31 PM
now for more fun videos of russians getting their asses kicked.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1694753107924734307
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 24, 2023, 04:05:00 PM
The problem with using 'statistical' measures to predict outcomes in war is that the numbers don't count the soft factors. Sometimes these factors are just as important, or maybe even more important.

Sometimes its as simple as one side just wanting to win harder than the other side.

History has examples in warfare where the numbers just didn't synch with the end result; Germany's "strange victory" against France in May '40, The American Revolution, The Franco-Prussian War, The Russo-Japanese War, The Japanese Singapore Campaign, Napoleon's War against the 2nd Coalition. and the Soviets War in Afghanistan.

Even in the American Civil War. The North who was fighting with 'one hand tied behind its back', could have conceivably lost by negotiating peace with the CSA if the election of 1864 had turned out differently.

Sure on paper Russia can pull a bunch of AK-47s out of storage and flood the fields in Ukraine with a million conscripts. And maybe they have another few thousand old cold-war tanks in mothballs somewhere (I don't think so, but for arguments sake).

But I just don't see Russia rallying around Putin enough to go "all-in" on crushing Ukraine. 

Still, Putin has occasionally surprised me, and I could be completely wrong. 


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 24, 2023, 04:07:56 PM
Their proficient use of drones during this assault is chilling, ruthless and effective.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 24, 2023, 04:14:48 PM
Ukrainian pilots to be trained on F-16s in October in Tucson, Arizona.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/tucson-base-to-be-used-to-train-ukrainian-fighter-pilots/ar-AA1fJHg0?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6ca5eeaddb2e437ca94d2fa043293213&ei=22 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/tucson-base-to-be-used-to-train-ukrainian-fighter-pilots/ar-AA1fJHg0?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6ca5eeaddb2e437ca94d2fa043293213&ei=22)

I think I read there will also be training in Germany somewhere as well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 24, 2023, 04:28:00 PM
I can see Russia fully mobilizing and arming virtually every able bodied person numbering into the 10s of millions to crush Ukraine if they have to. Russia is that far gone.

Ukraine has a history of effective partisan fighting dating to WWII and decades before. And I can see them also mobilizing their entire society to survive.

The real question is what a victory looks like to Ukraine and what a victory looks like to Russia. Obviously Ukraine must survive but at what cost? And what will convince Russia to stop?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 24, 2023, 08:05:40 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 24, 2023, 04:28:00 PMI can see Russia fully mobilizing and arming virtually every able bodied person numbering into the 10s of millions to crush Ukraine if they have to. Russia is that far gone.

  What was stopping them from doing that to start with?  If there was really any real point to overrunning Ukraine, why didn't they do this massive mobilization to start with?  The real problem for the Russians is that there is no actual reason to overrun Ukraine.  Let's just say we have seen World War Three, it was pointless, crappy a horrible mess and the Russians lost.  Now they have to start World War IV and they might as well just blast some other pointless target.  I vote for Afghanistan or Mali or Niger or Syria.  Assuming the Chinese let the Russians run loose a while longer and I doubt the Chinese can afford any more shenanigans.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 24, 2023, 08:20:17 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 24, 2023, 04:28:00 PMI can see Russia fully mobilizing and arming virtually every able bodied person numbering into the 10s of millions to crush Ukraine if they have to. Russia is that far gone.


they literally can't.  this has been discussed ad nauseam.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 24, 2023, 09:29:34 PM
Today they can't. Who knows what will happen in a year.

They didn't fully mobilize from the beginning because they hoped the war would be over in two weeks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on August 24, 2023, 10:14:10 PM
"So the Russian officer (Girkin) who started the Donbas war in 2014 is in jail, the only Russian general to carry out a successful maneuver in 2022 (Surovikin) has been relieved of duty, and the only Russian commander to take a city in 2023 (Prigozhin) has been murdered."

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1694468840296481272?s=20 (https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1694468840296481272?s=20)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 24, 2023, 10:42:30 PM
Yeah.  Predicting anything that's going to happen next in a war with certainty is setting yourself up for a fall. 

Predicting anything that's going to happen next involving Russia with certainty is setting yourself up for a fall.

Predicting anything that's going to happen next in a war involving Russia with certainty...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 25, 2023, 12:49:22 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 24, 2023, 10:42:30 PMYeah.  Predicting anything that's going to happen next in a war with certainty is setting yourself up for a fall. 

Predicting anything that's going to happen next involving Russia with certainty is setting yourself up for a fall.

Predicting anything that's going to happen next in a war involving Russia with certainty...
Tetlocks' Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is very interesting.  4% accuracy is typical, anything above 25%, Tetlock considers good.  For 100% accuracy, you'll want a seer.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 06:30:33 AM
no context for it but lol

https://twitter.com/i/status/1694788814391410986
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 25, 2023, 08:20:45 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 24, 2023, 08:20:17 PMthey literally can't.  this has been discussed ad nauseam.

You really don't know that for certain. Nobody on this forum really has the ability to answer that question with certainly.

Certainly there are very high barriers. But I don't think its 'impossible.' If Putin could manage to pull together the right sort of brutal cabal (Lavrentiy Beria 2.0 and associates), he could go 'all North Korea' or 'Germany '45'. He would get a low-tech, untrained conscript army, but he could get a very large one (how effective they would be is another question).

I for one don't see Putin being able to do this. I say this only because I think Putin's Russia is basically a state run by sophisticated Mafia, and not a dedicated group of hard core klepto-idealists.

But I really don't know what Putin is capable of at the end of the day and I think there is a possibility.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 09:27:14 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 25, 2023, 08:20:45 AMHe would get a low-tech, untrained conscript army, but he could get a very large one (how effective they would be is another question).


Barbarossa would probably be a good indication of what would happen to the russians. 
to get that army would require him to pull people from metropolitan areas and then you would see real resistance
to continuing the war.  so far it seems that the conscripts raised have come mostly from rural areas that moscow
finds expendable.  these are also the people with the least income and economic impact.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 09:30:59 AM
so where are the bodies?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1695049014687781077
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 25, 2023, 10:11:58 AM
I think Putin may have greatly underestimated Prigo's popularity with the Russian peasantry and older class who pine for the old USSR to return. He might wish he had him back before too long. And maybe he ought to stay off airplanes for awhile.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 25, 2023, 10:15:16 AM
Yeah, I am solidly with Star on this one. The logistics behind a million strong fielded army is something that is beyond the ork's capacity now. Even if they went old school with arming only half of them, the food and water requirements alone would be huge and would have to be be ala horse cart.

I am thinking now that maybe why it is a slow roll offensive is to give the Russian leadership time to consider the inevitable loss forthcoming - and maybe come up with their own political solution to withdrawing from the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 25, 2023, 10:30:57 AM
Yeah, I don't think the Russians could conquer Ukraine right now either. The Ukes have had a taste of Freedom and would not go back under the Russian yoke while still breathing. If the Russkies could conquer it, it'd take a million men decades to rule over it and only then with mass genocide of the Ukrainian people. Rather than making Russia stronger, it would make them much weaker for a generation or more.

BTW, I have it on good authority that Prigo was trying to tell everybody on the plane that he saw a Gremlin on the wing.  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 25, 2023, 10:42:27 AM
Poor Billy Shatner...

My endocrinologist's older brother had him as a local babysitter a couple times growing up.  That was obviously well before he got into the acting thing.  Those damn Canucks all know each other!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 25, 2023, 11:44:35 AM
Regarding a comparison of Barbarossa to Putin mobilizing a million-man army to streamroll Ukraine (or do literally anything at all):

It's important to emphasize and keep firmly in mind that Stalin didn't just call up his peasants and use haxxor cheats to spawn umpty-thousand tanks, airplanes, arty, and all the things which go with those things.

Stalin had been working on getting all that ready since at least as far back as 1928. And he had 16 fully kitted armies up on the border on June 21st 1941, with another seven (iirc) on the way from far inland (stacking up already against the trains still bringing the final troops and kit and fuel etc to the 16 armies of the First Strategic Echelon on the border, plus the empty trains trying to run the logistic grid back inland to get more stuff.) That troop movement still remains the single greatest logistic feat of all human history, and it started well back well into 1940.

And Stalin had basically wrecked his nation getting all that ready to go and up on the line or on the way. The Soviet Union was guaranteed to die in 1941 without Hitler attacking! -- unless Stalin did something useful with all that kit and personnel first.

Putin hasn't been working on any of that, at all, at any time. It would be counterproductive to his regime to work on that, because then the military would be more likely to overthrow the mafia and run the country themselves! And his military is at least 10x worse right now than it was when he invaded last year. The best he can do is penny-parcel out low-morale increasingly green troops to the front(s).

Taking a year pause might help his planning for next time, but it won't help a lot of his other problems. (And that assumes he and his crew manage to plan better next time, against their own internal and external constraints against effective military planning!)

Putin can still put out a lot of hurt by the standards of a third world country which is practically a cargo-cult now; but any positive comparisons to what Stalin and his crew were able to do in 41 to 45 are a fantasy. (Not even counting all the weaknesses of Stalin & Co.) Putin has not put in the decades of work necessary to play at Stalin's level.

Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 25, 2023, 08:20:45 AMI think Putin's Russia is basically a state run by sophisticated Mafia, and not a dedicated group of hard core klepto-idealists.

100% agree. But even the latter have to (and had to, and did) put in the work, to get the results.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on August 25, 2023, 11:50:49 AM
Quote from: Windigo on August 25, 2023, 10:15:16 AMI am thinking now that maybe why it is a slow roll offensive is to give the Russian leadership time to consider the inevitable loss forthcoming - and maybe come up with their own political solution to withdrawing from the Ukraine.

  They just have to invent another "existential crisis"...apparently even getting canceled like JK Rowling doesn't cut it as "existential" enough.  I'm sure there's some small region in Asia or Africa they could throw their army into to fight for Russia's historical this and that while having the appropriate soul-searching on the part of the Church.

And there's a lot about Putin and JK Rowling out there such as:

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-jk-rowling-cancel-culture-comparison-video-translation-progressive-discrimination-2022-3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 12:48:29 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2023, 11:44:35 AMRegarding a comparison of Barbarossa to Putin mobilizing a million-man army to streamroll Ukraine (or do literally anything at all):


let me clarify.
I didn't mean that putin could pull off a Barbarossa.  I ment that a russian army that size today would suffer the same defeats that they did in the summer of 1941.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on August 25, 2023, 12:52:54 PM
Never thought I'd quote Lindsay Graham, but "3 percent of the US defense budget destroyed half the Russian army".  Sounds like money we'll spent to me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 12:58:06 PM
and its mostly for equipment and ordinance thats been bought and payed for decades ago.
we get rid of stuff thats been sitting on a shelf and about to reach the end of its service life
while buying newer, more better versions.   :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 25, 2023, 01:16:03 PM
The Wall Street Journal went a bit more into the confrence between Zaluzhnyi and NATO that happened earlier this week. 

According to them Zaluzhnyi directly rebuffed NATO suggestions and sources are directly quoting him:

 "You don't understand the nature of this conflict. This is not counterinsurgency; this is Kursk."

This connects with statements made previously by anonymous UAF sources that said NATO, especially American training was completely out of touch with their opinions of the nature of the conflict, and spent a significant amount of time assuming lightly contested breakthroughs followed by urban combat and counterinsurgency warfare, more in line with situations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Zaluzhnyi has directly told his NATO advisors that he and the Ukrainian MOD are highly confident that their tactics will produce a breakthrough, and that significant  reserves are being held for that eventuality. 

This reinforces the idea that Zaluzhnyi's goal is a larger general collapse rather than a narrow schwerepunkt cutting the Russian forces in two.

To that end, the UAF has again been widening the gap in their main breakthrough at Robotyne, while only pushing slightly beyond it.  They are also continuing to rotate brigades rather than commit heavily in order to bring sustained pressure, while the Russians are having significant problems relieving their men.

Russian intercepts are making the problem clear.  Local commanders are bemoaning the lack of relief and reserves, and there are indications that they've had to commit most of the third line of defense to try to hold the second.  The first is being rolled up.

Most importantly, Russian intercepts in the south are confirming that the Russian forces around Robotyne are now totally out of armor reserves.

The UAF strategy of using Western armor as standoff, with their superior optics allowing them to destroy Russian vehicles outside of their ability to respond, has degraded the Russian forces access to tanks and IFV's to the point where they are almost totally gone from the Robotyne axis. 

The Russians seem to have committed most of their armor reserves to the stalled offensive in Kupiansk, and the continuing attempt to hold the flanks of Bakhmut. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 25, 2023, 01:21:43 PM
To support what Skoop and Starfury have just stated, geopolitical forecaster Peter Zeihan: 
If you can't watch all of it, watch from the 4:28 mark.
Written:  https://zeihan.com/f-16-fighter-jets-updates-to-ukraines-defense-strategy/
QuoteAnd for those of you say that this is costing the United States too much. Number one, check your math. With the exception of two Patri[ot] batteries, every single other thing that has been transferred from the United States at this point has been spare parts and decommissioned equipment that we were going to have to pay to dismantle. So in many ways, the Ukraine war has saved us a lot of money.

And second, if you think the money has been stolen, you're literally just making that up. Call your congressperson because they have every day a full list of every piece of equipment, how it was used, how it was transferred, and how much money to actually cost the United States. And anyone who tells you otherwise is lying to you. All right.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 25, 2023, 01:30:48 PM
Another forecaster, General Petraeus: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-may-suddenly-break-under-ukraine-counteroffensive-petraeus-2023-8

QuoteAs Ukraine struggles to make substantial gains in its counteroffensive, General David Petraeus says that Russia's front line may yet falter under pressure.

The former top general and CIA director brought his experience in Iraq to the picture as he laid out why he believes Ukraine can still push through Russia's formidable defenses.

"I'm guardedly optimistic, with qualifications," he told CNN. Ukraine can potentially "crack the line in a couple of places," he said, adding that the fate of the battle will then depend on the Russian reaction.

I was going to propose a discussion on a comparison on the Ukrainian counter-offensive and operation Desert Storm, General Petraeus answers it succinctly though. 
QuoteHolding them back is a formidable network of minefields, trenches and anti-tank "dragon's teeth" that stretch the 600-mile length of the front line. Faced with this, even the US would struggle, Petraeus told CNN.
"The truth is, we could not have done this," he said. The only times the US has faced similar situations was in Iraq, he said.

But then the US had huge advantages in its air force — boasting total air superiority — and its vast numbers of personnel, heavy armor, and breaching devices.

Ukraine "has adapted very impressively" to the situation, he told CNN. To describe its tactic, he and Kagan cited Admiral Tony Radakin, the head of the British military, who called it "starve, stretch and strike."

"Ukraine is applying pressure on their opponent until something breaks, at which point they will commit their reserves and strike," Petraeus and Kagan wrote.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on August 25, 2023, 01:40:27 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 25, 2023, 01:16:03 PMThe Wall Street Journal went a bit more into the confrence between Zaluzhnyi and NATO that happened earlier this week. 

According to them Zaluzhnyi directly rebuffed NATO suggestions and sources are directly quoting him:

 "You don't understand the nature of this conflict. This is not counterinsurgency; this is Kursk."

This connects with statements made previously by anonymous UAF sources that said NATO, especially American training was completely out of touch with their opinions of the nature of the conflict, and spent a significant amount of time assuming lightly contested breakthroughs followed by urban combat and counterinsurgency warfare, more in line with situations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Zaluzhnyi has directly told his NATO advisors that he and the Ukrainian MOD are highly confident that their tactics will produce a breakthrough, and that significant  reserves are being held for that eventuality. 

This reinforces the idea that Zaluzhnyi's goal is a larger general collapse rather than a narrow schwerepunkt cutting the Russian forces in two.

To that end, the UAF has again been widening the gap in their main breakthrough at Robotyne, while only pushing slightly beyond it.  They are also continuing to rotate brigades rather than commit heavily in order to bring sustained pressure, while the Russians are having significant problems relieving their men.

Russian intercepts are making the problem clear.  Local commanders are bemoaning the lack of relief and reserves, and there are indications that they've had to commit most of the third line of defense to try to hold the second.  The first is being rolled up.

Most importantly, Russian intercepts in the south are confirming that the Russian forces around Robotyne are now totally out of armor reserves.

The UAF strategy of using Western armor as standoff, with their superior optics allowing them to destroy Russian vehicles outside of their ability to respond, has degraded the Russian forces access to tanks and IFV's to the point where they are almost totally gone from the Robotyne axis. 

The Russians seem to have committed most of their armor reserves to the stalled offensive in Kupiansk, and the continuing attempt to hold the flanks of Bakhmut. 


When you mentioned this earlier I was thinking exactly what was said here.  Zaluhzny is seeing a totally different picture here. 
Also when has nato ever conducted a breakthrough offensive without air superiority ?

I don't think nato offensive tactics would work for the Ukrainians without local air superiority.
I think zaluhzny is smart to do it his way.
Twenty years from now, we may be celebrating zaluzhny as a tactical genius.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 25, 2023, 02:54:29 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 12:48:29 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2023, 11:44:35 AMRegarding a comparison of Barbarossa to Putin mobilizing a million-man army to streamroll Ukraine (or do literally anything at all):


let me clarify.
I didn't mean that putin could pull off a Barbarossa.  I ment that a russian army that size today would suffer the same defeats that they did in the summer of 1941.

Again, depends on starting conditions, and what the armies are trying to do. Stalin didn't lose Barbarossa (and somewhat afterward) from being crappy quality. He put in MASSIVELY more pushups than Putin ever did, getting ready to go. Primarily Stalin lost by being caught way out of defensive position, by a hardcore Nazi army who knew how to kick Stalin in the balls repeatedly and keep him stumbling around until they (almost literally) got tired of winning.

Give Putin Stalin's 1941 army in modern terms, with allllllllll the practical advantages Stalin had set up for them, and competent commanders loyal to Putin (or at least willing to prove their loyalty), and I really don't think Ukraine would have stood a snowball's chance in hell.

Except maybe that simply giving that to Putin wouldn't be the same experience as Putin and his crew having grown all that up for about 15 years already. Putin and his crew would be fumbling around unable to figure out what to do with it. They were fumbling around unable to figure out what to do with (compared to Stalin) the tiny fractional forces and support they DID have.

This is related to larger scale morale issues in Russia right now, too. People aren't pining for Stalin again due to the USSR really being a workers' paradise, and certainly not because Stalin got shanked repeatedly for three years by Hitler.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on August 25, 2023, 03:41:24 PM
Quote from: Skoop on August 25, 2023, 01:40:27 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 25, 2023, 01:16:03 PMThe Wall Street Journal went a bit more into the confrence between Zaluzhnyi and NATO that happened earlier this week. 

According to them Zaluzhnyi directly rebuffed NATO suggestions and sources are directly quoting him:

 "You don't understand the nature of this conflict. This is not counterinsurgency; this is Kursk."

This connects with statements made previously by anonymous UAF sources that said NATO, especially American training was completely out of touch with their opinions of the nature of the conflict, and spent a significant amount of time assuming lightly contested breakthroughs followed by urban combat and counterinsurgency warfare, more in line with situations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Zaluzhnyi has directly told his NATO advisors that he and the Ukrainian MOD are highly confident that their tactics will produce a breakthrough, and that significant  reserves are being held for that eventuality. 

This reinforces the idea that Zaluzhnyi's goal is a larger general collapse rather than a narrow schwerepunkt cutting the Russian forces in two.

To that end, the UAF has again been widening the gap in their main breakthrough at Robotyne, while only pushing slightly beyond it.  They are also continuing to rotate brigades rather than commit heavily in order to bring sustained pressure, while the Russians are having significant problems relieving their men.

Russian intercepts are making the problem clear.  Local commanders are bemoaning the lack of relief and reserves, and there are indications that they've had to commit most of the third line of defense to try to hold the second.  The first is being rolled up.

Most importantly, Russian intercepts in the south are confirming that the Russian forces around Robotyne are now totally out of armor reserves.

The UAF strategy of using Western armor as standoff, with their superior optics allowing them to destroy Russian vehicles outside of their ability to respond, has degraded the Russian forces access to tanks and IFV's to the point where they are almost totally gone from the Robotyne axis. 

The Russians seem to have committed most of their armor reserves to the stalled offensive in Kupiansk, and the continuing attempt to hold the flanks of Bakhmut. 


When you mentioned this earlier I was thinking exactly what was said here.  Zaluhzny is seeing a totally different picture here. 
Also when has nato ever conducted a breakthrough offensive without air superiority ?

I don't think nato offensive tactics would work for the Ukrainians without local air superiority.
I think zaluhzny is smart to do it his way.
Twenty years from now, we may be celebrating zaluzhny as a tactical genius.
I just finished reading the WaPo article and was racing to post the link here to see that several of you beat me to it.
Also aligns a lot with Phillips OBrien articles and thoughts which I have been following on Twitter (now X?) Twixt?  I think that SirAndrew has some access to other sources of information than open articles like myself but I do agree that Ukrainians' are fighting the war the best way and have both tactical and strategic goals in mind which we are not privy to nor do we have an understanding of what they are seeing on the battlefield.
Con
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on August 25, 2023, 04:17:06 PM
Last I checked, this is grogheads. If there is a website, where we should be able to safely opinionate about conflicts from a not in the know standpoint AND to freely speculate wildly... wouldn't that be here?

I mean within the realm of sustantive reason of course, this isn't some reality disengaged spinoff political cult.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 25, 2023, 05:15:58 PM
Well depending on how the French react we may see kick-off in Niger.  The coup leaders have told the French ambassador to leave and France has refused this request.  https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230825-🔴-niger-s-military-junta-gives-french-ambassador-48-hours-to-leave-country  If the French military is asked to leave they could possibly relocate next door to Chad, as there are no reported deteriorations in relations between the two countries.  France cut off aid to Niger at the end of July, but the US has continued aid and recently confirmed a new ambassador who will continue with diplomacy.  https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/19/politics/niger-ambassador-kathleen-fitzgibbon/index.html

Niger proposed a return to democracy within three years, which was rejected by ECOWAS.  https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230821-west-africa-s-ecowas-rejects-niger-junta-s-three-year-transition-plan
ECOWAS has stated that it is ready to intervene militarily in Niger https://www.france24.com/en/video/20230821-west-african-bloc-says-it-is-ready-for-military-intervention-in-niger-if-order-given 
While, Niger has authorized Burkina Faso and Mali to intervene in the event that Niger is attacked.  https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230824-niger-junta-to-let-burkina-faso-and-mali-intervene-in-the-event-of-aggression 

With the decapitation of Wagner, hopefully the 10 000 mercenaries in Mali will be paralyzed to intervene, should Niger request aid upon being attacked.  Wagner troops in Libya would likely have to transit Algeria by ground while those in CAR would have to transit Chad.  With the probable demise of Prigozhin and Utkin, and other senior leadership, an attempt at revenge for the decimation of the Wagner attack on US Forces in Syria in 2018 is much less likely.  It will also become much less of a priority as the Russian MoD hopes to displace or integrate them  Hopefully, Wagner in Africa will collapse as will the wealth that flows in to fund the war in Africa.  However, the BBC is reporting on the resilience of the organization:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66604261
QuoteDr Joana de Deus Pereira, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), told the BBC's World Tonight programme that Prigozhin's death would likely lead to "a certain revamping" of the group.

But she said that overall Wagner's operations would probably continue in much the same way as it had under Prigozhin's leadership.

"The organisation will persist in the future probably with another name, but it has already proved it has the capacity to adapt and to morph," she said.

"We have to look at Wagner not only as a single man but as an ecosystem, as a hydra with many many heads and many diverse interests in Africa."

Ruslan Trad, a security analyst with the Atlantic Council, agreed. He told the BBC that Prigozhin's death would likely see someone with connections to Russia's military intelligence service, the GRU, installed to lead the group in his place.

But he suggested that the main challenge for Mr Putin may be finding someone with deep enough pockets to fund the paramilitary's operations, while not posing a direct challenge to his regime.

"They will try to find a new financier because Prigozhin was the main person with money there," Mr Trad said.

"I think it will be more difficult to find a new financier because [Wagner] have good commanders, but money is important here. Maybe they will [install] someone from the close circle around Putin.
...

"The commanders stationed in Syria, or Central African Republic or Mali, they already have very good models in place there and they have the freedom to act," he said.

"Local commanders are not impacted because the operations are separately operational, they have different resources for this and even now they are recruiting for Syria and Africa operations."

And he said the group's arms length relationship with Russian intelligence would remain a valuable tool for Moscow, allowing it to operate in the "grey zone" where it could pursue Russia's interests, but allowing officials to deny involvement.

Mr Bringer told the BBC that Wagner was "essential in Africa" in terms of promoting Russian interests. "The structure will certainly continue to exist there, perhaps no longer under the name of Wagner, but with a new head loyal to the Kremlin," he said."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 25, 2023, 05:18:44 PM
Quote from: Windigo on August 25, 2023, 04:17:06 PMLast I checked, this is grogheads. If there is a website, where we should be able to safely opinionate about conflicts from a not in the know standpoint AND to freely speculate wildly... wouldn't that be here?

I mean within the realm of sustantive reason of course, this isn't some reality disengaged spinoff political cult.

Well, this just might happen to us:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60938538   :tongue:

QuoteThe head of French military intelligence, Gen Eric Vidaud, is losing his job after failing to predict Russia's war in Ukraine, reports say.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 05:38:47 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2023, 02:54:29 PMGive Putin Stalin's 1941 army in modern terms, with allllllllll the practical advantages Stalin had set up for them, and competent commanders loyal to Putin (or at least willing to prove their loyalty), and I really don't think Ukraine would have stood a snowball's chance in hell.


its literally the same institutionally inept and corrupt command structure today as it was back then.

points to the Kiev drive
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 06:24:05 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1ka4ul.jpg?a470160)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4X8E_3XkAA0cC9?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4YhMK_XAAA0gxe?format=jpg&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4Y9i9zXoAgKF4S?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 08:18:39 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4YEbGYWYAAE-uN?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 26, 2023, 10:22:54 AM
Some interesting thoughts from Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal on US guidance for Ukraine's offensive. Although I think the politcal jab they make in the first paragraph may be overblown.

Quote from the article: "There is more than a little irony in the U.S. lecturing Ukraine about underperforming. The U.S. military's strategy for prevailing against such fortified defenses includes air dominance. In Operation Desert Storm, as Fred Kagan and David Petraeus pointed out recently, the U.S. spent weeks on a bombing campaign to weaken Saddam Hussein's defenses before committing ground troops."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as-ukraine-advances-biden-faults/ar-AA1fMXmM?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ENTPSP&cvid=010b0e01fd354a1ab03fa4319c659779&ei=9 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as-ukraine-advances-biden-faults/ar-AA1fMXmM?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ENTPSP&cvid=010b0e01fd354a1ab03fa4319c659779&ei=9)

Personally, I don't know what to think. On one hand, the US has the best organized and equipped military in the world. On the other hand, the US has no experience in doing what the Ukrainians are having to do without airpower.

So is the US a "power-coach," on the sidelines trying to coax the best performance? or just a meddlesome "back-seat driver?" The truth may be somewhere in the middle.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 26, 2023, 10:47:01 AM
You also have to strongly consider US motives for involving itself in the war and what it hopes to gain through Ukrainian, to put it bluntly, sacrifice.

What is driving US strategic analysis and advice. Is it to achieve a rapid end to the war? Is it to minimize Ukrainian human and material loss? Is it to maximize damage and destruction to Russia's military, economy and geopolitical strength?  Whatever it is, it is certainly a major factor in how US military "experts" are pushing Ukraine to manage its war.

I suggest that the advice US military advisors are giving to Ukraine is not based on inexperience or naivete, rather it is based on a preferred calculated outcome.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on August 26, 2023, 11:20:56 AM
Well when Pres. Biden was in Helsinki he said, "After a successful Ukrainian Counteroffensive, this war will end by a negotiated settlement", no mention of what a successful counteroffensive would look like. But there was nothing about degrading the Russian military or Putin having to leave office which he did talk about before. So one would assume those 2 issues are off the table.

It's hard to tell who in the U.S. is actually in charge of policy in Ukraine or advising on war strategy. Hopefully their goal is to stop Russian aggression and preserve Ukrainian liberty. As to who's actually running the war in Ukraine, who's in charge, the Ukes or the West, is not clear either.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 26, 2023, 11:34:30 AM
That preferred calculated outcome would include not provoking a war between the US and Russia as well as minimally a return to rules based international order.  Damaging the Russian military to the point it takes decades to rebuild and making Russia's military adventure so costly as to discourage further attempts to reintegrate lost territories. As to the replacement of Putin, it is highly probable that the current administration wants this, as he continues to prosecute the war.
As to the disintegration of Russia, probably not due to the threat of nuclear proliferation.  Economic and geopolitical dominance?  Which country doesn't want this? 
A rapid end to the war in Ukraine's favour isn't possible without major outrage from Russia, but the Russians won't ever forget foreign interference.
Over simplified and probably naive on my part, and of course the strategists aren't these things, but thanks for letting me speak.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 26, 2023, 11:57:46 AM
^Ukraine will never forget foreign interference either  :justice:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 26, 2023, 01:02:17 PM
The US is Apollo Creed.  Ukraine is Rocky.  Russia is a mixed-up cross between Drago and Mr. T.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 26, 2023, 01:05:21 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 26, 2023, 01:02:17 PMThe US is Apollo Creed.  Ukraine is Rocky.  Russia is a mixed-up cross between Drago and Mr. T.

Don't you dare insult Mr. T like that!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 26, 2023, 02:59:59 PM
a refresher on what the UAF is working through.
click pic for direct link.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1695463241235734632
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 26, 2023, 04:18:29 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 05:38:47 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2023, 02:54:29 PMGive Putin Stalin's 1941 army in modern terms, with allllllllll the practical advantages Stalin had set up for them, and competent commanders loyal to Putin (or at least willing to prove their loyalty), and I really don't think Ukraine would have stood a snowball's chance in hell.


its literally the same institutionally inept and corrupt command structure today as it was back then.

points to the Kiev drive

Stalin put together a military command structure he could rely on (within the acknowledged limitations of supervillainy), which even his chief enemies (the Nazis) grudgingly admired. He even put competent commanders whom he didn't think he could personally rely on into a carefully institutionalized system where they felt like they had to prove their loyalty by being competent or else, and got good service out of them! -- even factoring many of them back into his official command structure again.

Points to Rokossovsky.

Putin, for various self-serving reasons, didn't. He can't even make proper use of a purge.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on August 26, 2023, 11:03:40 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 25, 2023, 05:38:47 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 25, 2023, 02:54:29 PMGive Putin Stalin's 1941 army in modern terms, with allllllllll the practical advantages Stalin had set up for them, and competent commanders loyal to Putin (or at least willing to prove their loyalty), and I really don't think Ukraine would have stood a snowball's chance in hell.


its literally the same institutionally inept and corrupt command structure today as it was back then.

points to the Kiev drive

Yep. The Russians that surrendered to us complained that they had no idea where they were, what they were doing, why they were there, and or what their mission was. Some of them wore Ukrainian flags because they were told that Germany supported by NATO had invaded Ukraine and that they were there to stop them pushing into Russia proper. Most hadn't seen an officer or senior NCO in weeks or months. 

They had plate carriers but no plates because they had been sold on the black market by their officers and staff-officers well before the war began. Slews of Russian tankers complained that the Kontakt-5 ERA was missing from the blocks and RRT's and sold on the black market, lots of the small-arms ammo was all low-loaded with shitty primers that then, after almost eight months, turned into shitty ChiCom ammo that was basically worthless.

We encountered guys wearing hastily cut aluminum and steel cuirass pieces like it was the late 1800's. Many of them were carrying Mosin's, PPS SMG's, and AK variants that were older than my dad that fought in Viet-nam with the NZDF. All of them were corroded to such an extent that it didn't matter how much time you put into weapons maintenance. The Russian Armed Forces were a joke to begin with, conventionally speaking. They were at best third-rate. They're even worse now and that is truly scary. It's scary because of Russia's NSC and threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, which is drastically lowered for kinetic operations.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 26, 2023, 11:20:27 PM
Ukraine will win.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1695541410802368992
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 27, 2023, 08:22:48 AM
another day another minefield to clear

https://twitter.com/i/status/1695714356476912046
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 28, 2023, 08:27:04 AM
Happy Monday and fuck russia.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1696145868750045599
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 28, 2023, 03:04:12 PM
In some significant news.  The Russians have decided to redeploy its main strategic reserve division, the 76's Guards Air Assault Division from the Kharkiv front to Zaporizhzhia.

This is significant for a couple of reasons.  First, the 76th has been resupplying and refreshing since its withdrawal from Kherson last year.  It is Russia's most overall capable and well equipped formation, and inflicted serious casualties on UAF forces fighting the very successful rearguard action that prevented the loss of most of the Russian forces north of the Dniper. 

Second, this unit is technically a reserve force, held to exploit breakthroughs.  It is generally considered a waste to place it in a defensive role.

This will be a serious blow to the Russian attempts to mount an offensive in Kharkiv from the Kremmina axis.  The 76th already had battalions engaged there and this decision takes them out of one fight, sends them hundreds of miles south and asks them to immediately engage in the other. 

They are also trying to reinforce it with ad hoc VDV units that have largely been forced to operate as smaller sub-regimental organizations due to overall losses. 

Committing the 76th Guards to a battle it is not well suited for puts more emphasis on the serious shortage of reserves and equipment in Zaporizhzhia.  While this will inject a very powerful formation into the line to attempt to halt the counterattack, this can't be a decision that Russian generals really wanted to make if they didn't have to.  The 76th had only just recovered from its losses in Kherson and was considered vital for the ongoing but stalled offensive in the Kharkiv oblast. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 28, 2023, 03:32:45 PM
a little friendly fire.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1695910768561054051
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 28, 2023, 03:38:48 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1696192303516266939
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on August 28, 2023, 03:44:08 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 28, 2023, 03:32:45 PMa little friendly fire.
Might have been operating in autonomous mode.  Will it posthumously earn a hat?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 28, 2023, 05:37:51 PM
no hats for own goals.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 28, 2023, 11:22:03 PM
excellent russian moral and discipline.  Im sure theyre having fun but thats a great way to get dead.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1696214513089962020
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 28, 2023, 11:31:03 PM
moving on from Robotyne

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4iDyPSXwAA3Cco?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695879651158052910.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 28, 2023, 11:48:01 PM
so maybe russia doesnt really have a population of a 140 million....  :Loser:

https://t.me/Pravda_Gerashchenko/78260

the translation:

After lessons at school, immediately to the factory: in Russia, the restriction on the work of minors was lifted
The dictator wants children to work from the age of 14.
We tell readers @Pravda_Gerashchenko why Putin needed children at the machines.
"Strong ideas for a new time"
Officially, the dictator instructed to implement "employment and incentives for employment (including for temporary work) of citizens aged 14 to 24 years."
Now, in order to use the labor of minors, only the consent of one of the parents and a health certificate are sufficient. It's funny that Putin gave such an order following a meeting of the forum, which was called "Strong Ideas for the New Times."
And what happened?
The purpose of using child labor is to cope with the shortage of workers in the economy, which the authorities estimate in the hundreds of thousands of people.
According to the Gaidar Institute, the shortage of personnel at Russian enterprises has reached record levels since 1996, when statistics began to be kept.
A survey of owners and top managers in July showed that almost half of the enterprises faced labor shortages. Only manufacturing enterprises, which are designed to replace imports from Western countries, lack about 660,000 specialists. And all because:
▪️ partial mobilization took about 300 thousand people to the front;
▪️ due to forced emigration of the Russian Federation, almost a million Russians left;
▪️mass recruitment of volunteers and contractors exceeded 200 thousand people.
According to the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, Osmakov, the personnel resource has been exhausted both at the local and at the strategic level.
At such a pace, in the workplace in the Russian Federation, labor and preschoolers will soon be used in order to prepare for a hard life.
#curb
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 12:00:12 AM
dug a little bit more and it seems they started looking into changing the laws around November of last year.
I would imagine the problems quite a bit worse now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 29, 2023, 05:14:11 AM
I was thinking, huh, that defensive deployment of an AAD sure is a classic Stalinist move (although to be fair the Airborne Assault Divisions, and Corps, and Armies, did almost inarguably save the Soviet Union once upon a time, which is why they're always called "Guards" now). And I wondered what the next Stalinist move would be.

I wasn't expecting child labor in the factories, but in hindsight that was OBVIOUSLY going to be a move sooner or later.

Next let's see if Putin institutes the death penalty for minors at factories...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 29, 2023, 06:45:15 AM
Meanwhile, the post-Soviet modernization of T-59s continues apace as demonstrated in this propaganda video...  :evil:


Much like the Armata, this should revolutionize warfare and prove that modern Russia is indeed at the cutting edge of military technology using the finest quality North Korean materials and parts! (Developed for fighting robot locusts.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 09:03:22 AM
thats Chinese  :cool:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 10:16:21 AM
that south east push is going to be where its at.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4tJ6uqa8AE7xSR?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 10:18:17 AM
and this is why they cost roughly $6 million each.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4tQ5OgWUAAC2kQ?format=jpg&name=small)

The Armed Forces lost only 5 of 71 Leopard 2 tanks during the summer counter-offensive, Forbes magazine reported.

In addition, about 10 tanks were damaged and are being repaired. At the same time, almost all "Leopards" took part in the battles, except for 14, which were later delivered, and almost all members of the Leopard 2 crews managed to get out of the stricken tanks before they were destroyed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 29, 2023, 10:33:26 AM
^That is awesome news if all true. Get Ukraine dozens more Leopards!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 11:03:47 AM
would be nice.  the swiss are once again holding up delivery of someone else's Leo1a5 because, well because their swiss and like oligarch money.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 29, 2023, 11:08:24 AM
:/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: undercovergeek on August 29, 2023, 11:41:12 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 11:03:47 AMwould be nice.  the swiss are once again holding up delivery of someone else's Leo1a5 because, well because their swiss and like oligarch money.

What are the actual consequences if all involved say fuck you switzerland, it's happening
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 29, 2023, 11:50:30 AM
Swiss go nuts and invade Lichtenstein?  :uglystupid2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: undercovergeek on August 29, 2023, 12:24:22 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 29, 2023, 11:50:30 AMSwiss go nuts and invade Lichtenstein?  :uglystupid2:


With their pointy helmets and stripey uniforms

Fk you Switzerland

Come at us
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 29, 2023, 12:38:45 PM
The Battle of Verbove is in full swing today.  The UAF seems to be all in on breaking the line and the Russians seem to be equally committed.

The Russians abandoned the Pryitune salient and moved its forces west to Verbove to strengthen the line, and the 76th GAAD and VDV are both fully present and in the fight.

No idea what way it's going now.  Russian milbloggers are jubilant claiming the Ukrainian offensive was crushed and the 76th GAAD is in full counterattack, rolling back the entire counteroffensive and threatening to retake Robotyne with a counterthrust into the UAF flank.  I see absolutely nothing to confirm this beyond their claims.

Ukrainian sources are quiet but reporting at least some "success" towards Verbove with some Russian units falling back but little else.

This kind of info leads me to think we're in the biggest fight of the offensive right now and we're probably not going to know what really happened for a couple of days.

Either way this is decisive.  Verbove is the anchor point for the Surovikin line in this area as we knew weeks ago.  It's fall is just as critical as the fall of Robotyne was last week.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on August 29, 2023, 12:40:54 PM
The more I learn about this war the more it appears to be like multiple Battles of Verdun linked together.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 01:03:55 PM
my gut feeling is that the 76th's redeployment may have been to fast and to late.
we'll have to wait and see.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on August 29, 2023, 01:31:20 PM
Love this guy...Tucker Carlson can eat my butt sweat
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 01:49:21 PM
I have a lot I can say about the taint tanner but thats butting up real close to the political threashold
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 01:54:14 PM
not deep enough to be DPCIM proof.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1696240118263124392
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 29, 2023, 05:29:30 PM
I'm not going to go over what I heard from some of the alternative sources I've had, because the news is far too good for me to entirely believe and I think it's best to wait for confirmation. 

Also Russian sources tend to overreact when something even slightly negative goes their way. 

However it went it does seem some really major action did happen in the last 48 hours in Verbove and is still happening.  If reports are to be believed it went Ukraine's way, and in some cases very suddenly and surprisingly.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 29, 2023, 07:51:08 PM
I'm keeping my fingers crossed for those reports to be borne out, Andrew.  This fog of war sure makes for a complex spectator experience...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 09:04:21 PM
seems someone lost a bunch of planes.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4utuYeXEAAAPIV?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4uvOinXwAAp6A0?format=jpg&name=large)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1696671649762812100
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 09:06:03 PM
2 to 4 Il-76s and possibly a Tu-22
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 09:12:09 PM
burn baby burn disco inferno!  :Party:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1696640583106994389
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 29, 2023, 09:50:12 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 29, 2023, 07:51:08 PMI'm keeping my fingers crossed for those reports to be borne out, Andrew.  This fog of war sure makes for a complex spectator experience...

I absolutely count what we're hearing from some sources out of Verbove to be in the "too good to be true" category. 

So, here's what we do now right now. 

The UAF did not launch a direct attack into the contested area of Verbove, but there was a strong feint there that caused the Russians to commit to a swift counterattack in the area.  The UAF swiftly withdrew as the Russians concentrated freshly arrived armor and a heavy artillery barrage into the area.

The Russian trap was a counter trap.  HIMARS strikes were waiting and struck the Russian artillery systems and force concentrations.  What looked like a UAF retreat was not.  They used the chance to degrade the Russian artillery units and they look to have suffered a lot of losses.  Photo evidence shows heavy counterbattery on Russian emplacements.

The 76th GAAD took the opportunity to attack in the west towards Robotyne and was rebuffed to some extent as yet unknown. 

The 82nd Ukrainian Air Assault launched an attack along a different axis flanking Robotyne.  There was at least some measure of Russian retreat. 

And that's where it gets hazy.  Lots of potential hyperbolic words coming from Russians and now some pro-Ukrainian channels.  We won't know for a while. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on August 29, 2023, 10:38:44 PM
Quote from: Gusington on August 29, 2023, 10:33:26 AM^That is awesome news if all true. Get Ukraine dozens more Leopards!

They can have all the equipment in the world but if their tactics and means of employment are fucked, then the most advanced AFV, IFV, ATGM, weapon systems etc means absolutely nothing. Watching that charlie foxtrot of a battalion movement that resulted in absurd numbers of Brad's and Leopards and T-72's destroyed and or rendered combat ineffective was cringe inducing.

They assaulted without probing, without clearing obstacles and mines, without using the MICLIC's they had in abundance, and did so during the day instead of at night. Ukrainian soldiers have NoD's in absurd numbers thanks to the US. The Russian don't even issue them to their troops.     
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2023, 11:03:30 PM
every fucking treeline is a problem

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4tnrkyX0A8rp4S?format=png&name=small)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1696564228331655559.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 30, 2023, 01:45:07 AM
Quote from: DetCord on August 29, 2023, 10:38:44 PMThey assaulted without probing, without clearing obstacles and mines, without using the MICLIC's they had in abundance, and did so during the day instead of at night. Ukrainian soldiers have NoD's in absurd numbers thanks to the US. The Russian don't even issue them to their troops.     

100%

I'm still scratching my head over that cluster.  Just seeing them piled up almost bumper to bumper in what were pre-prepared fire zones and minefields was, beyond infuriating.

And the Night Vision thing is something I've heard and not said a ton on either.  Yeah, there's a weird disconnect because with their equipment, the UAF should own the night.  Russians are at a massive disadvantage there, but it's not being used.

Why?  Well, again this is where we talk about the breakdown in the Jr Officer and NCO level of CIC.  Russians and Ukrainians are sharing the same problem there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on August 30, 2023, 01:47:17 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on August 30, 2023, 01:45:07 AM
Quote from: DetCord on August 29, 2023, 10:38:44 PMThey assaulted without probing, without clearing obstacles and mines, without using the MICLIC's they had in abundance, and did so during the day instead of at night. Ukrainian soldiers have NoD's in absurd numbers thanks to the US. The Russian don't even issue them to their troops.   

100%

I'm still scratching my head over that cluster.  Just seeing them piled up almost bumper to bumper in what were pre-prepared fire zones and minefields was, beyond infuriating.

And the Night Vision thing is something I've heard and not said a ton on either.  Yeah, there's a weird disconnect because with their equipment, the UAF should own the night.  Russians are at a massive disadvantage there, but it's not being used.

Why?  Well, again this is where we talk about the breakdown in the Jr Officer and NCO level of CIC.  Russians and Ukrainians are sharing the same problem there.

Just absurd, utterly absurd. Right after that initial failed attempt to breach that ILD they went back and tried again, losing two more L2R's (only 6 in inventory) for which they (65th and 47th MB's) had already lost 7+ L2A's which at the time only consisted of 11 L2's TO&E'd for that unit.

Then they went back to one of the most fortified areas of the entire front the next day. Ukraine is already heavily deficient in recovery vehicles and they ended up losing several of the few Bergepanzer RV's they have because they sent them ahead to attempt recovery of the 2A's and 2R's they had previously lost only to lose their ability recover vehicles at all.

After almost 80 days of this counter-offensive, Ukraine has made essentially zero substantial (less than 2km's in some places) gains and have severely depleted reserves in both manpower and material. Now they've mobilized the 10th Corps hoping to secure Robotyne, which is less than a 2 kilometers from the ILD and just barely inside it. My buddies that stayed behind after we left have stated that conditions are awful, morale is in the pits, and that causalities are nearing 40,000.

But they keep pushing. Making the same mistakes and blunders the Russian made in the opening months. They need to stop trying to save face by bleeding their own troops on worthless endeavors.

Most units didn't even make it (yellow line) to the ILD.
(https://i.imgur.com/GmsIPV5.jpg)         
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 30, 2023, 03:51:05 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4vimc7WUAAfqAJ?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4vjl4pXgAINqX2?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on August 30, 2023, 06:58:37 PM
It's really gonna come down to who uses the least shittiest Soviet tactics, isn't it?

Indicated by both sides using damn AIR ASSAULT DIVISIONS on ground pushes and/or defense.  :hair: I guess we should just thank God and decent amounts of Ukrainian ack-ack that Putlin's side can't convert their air superiority into actually using AADs as AADs effectively. (Although I suppose if they did, they'd lack the ground pushiness to catch up.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on August 30, 2023, 07:27:34 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 30, 2023, 06:58:37 PMIt's really gonna come down to who uses the least shittiest Soviet tactics, isn't it?

Indicated by both sides using damn AIR ASSAULT DIVISIONS on ground pushes and/or defense.  :hair: I guess we should just thank God and decent amounts of Ukrainian ack-ack that Putlin's side can't convert their air superiority into actually using AADs as AADs effectively. (Although I suppose if they did, they'd lack the ground pushiness to catch up.)

Both units merely inherited the historical name and combat lineage of the units.  Neither are airborne or airmobile though the Russian formation does have a helicopter borne regiment with airmobile option although it is capable and trained primarily to operate as a ground assault force.

Both were reorganized into Mechanized divisions well before the war and are intended to operate as such.  "Air Assault" is just an indicator of special elite status.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 30, 2023, 07:51:32 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4u2Id7WMAEeNd7?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on August 30, 2023, 10:15:53 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 30, 2023, 06:58:37 PMIt's really gonna come down to who uses the least shittiest Soviet tactics, isn't it?

Indicated by both sides using damn AIR ASSAULT DIVISIONS on ground pushes and/or defense.  :hair: I guess we should just thank God and decent amounts of Ukrainian ack-ack that Putlin's side can't convert their air superiority into actually using AADs as AADs effectively. (Although I suppose if they did, they'd lack the ground pushiness to catch up.)

As Andrew point out those are primarily inherited names, though a few do have rotary-wing assets. They just can't employ them due to Russian SAM and MANPADS capabilities.

One of the worst aspects of this entire thing is that elite units like the 47th MB which were trained by NATO forces in the UK and Germany and outfitted with the latest equipment have suffered huge casualties, including swaths of their NCO and Officer cadre which as you know, aren't easily replaced.

It also doesn't help that the Ukrainians are being taught COIN tactics for whatever reason. Not very helpful in a conventional/kinetic combined-arms battlespace where maneuver of large elements is key.

Quote"I don't want to say anything against our partners, but they don't quite understand our situation and how we are fighting," said a senior intelligence sergeant in the newly formed 41st Mechanised Brigade who goes by the name 'Dutchman'. "That's why the main training and the integrated training happens here."

Members of the 41st Brigade said that their instructors often used examples of NATO operations in the Middle East, where the objective is to clear houses and identify potential insurgents among the local population, but "that's not really relevant to us".

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-russia-training-nato-west-military/ (https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-russia-training-nato-west-military/)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 30, 2023, 10:27:26 PM
Although not entirely surprising, that is disappointing.

After the war is over, assuming that some semblance of Ukrainian independence remains, it'll be interesting to see what academic researchers make of this war.  It's funny how quickly the politicians get involved in writing those histories after a war is won...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 30, 2023, 11:03:21 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F41CEKdWUAAa9S6?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 30, 2023, 11:15:57 PM
whats the infantry version of NTC in the US?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on August 30, 2023, 11:49:58 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on August 30, 2023, 10:27:26 PMAlthough not entirely surprising, that is disappointing.

After the war is over, assuming that some semblance of Ukrainian independence remains, it'll be interesting to see what academic researchers make of this war.  It's funny how quickly the politicians get involved in writing those histories after a war is won...

Thing is, we have the training, TTP's, and doctrine to properly enable Ukrainian Forces to fight, survive, and even win. Said aspects might be in some dusty old CI Warsaw Pact manuals, but it's still there. And given the fact that Russian doctrine remains almost unchanged since the days of the RKKA it's even more absurd to have not trained and or adopted said modern means.

It was one thing when we were deployed in defense-in-depth and wiping out entire companies and battalions. Jesus, myself and Mack killed well over 70 Russians from a fixed position alone. It's something else entirely to go on the offensive utilizing the exact same tactics that the Russians utilized in the opening days. This whole thing (counter-offensive) is a giant cluster-fuck with crusty, stuck-in-their-way old ass men, former Soviet officers, running the show that have a complete lack of understanding of modern conventional warfare.

For them it's the same as it was with regards to WWII, the Czech Revolt, Afghanistan, and Chechnya. All they know is throwing numbers at a problem.       
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on August 31, 2023, 07:04:14 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 30, 2023, 11:15:57 PMwhats the infantry version of NTC in the US?

Probably the Joint Readiness Training Center (JRTC) at Fort Johnson (old Ft. Polk), Louisiana.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 31, 2023, 10:50:43 AM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on August 31, 2023, 07:04:14 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 30, 2023, 11:15:57 PMwhats the infantry version of NTC in the US?

Probably the Joint Readiness Training Center (JRTC) at Fort Johnson (old Ft. Polk), Louisiana.

What about CAX out at Twenty-nine Palms? While definitely an emphasis on combined arms and fire support, infantry operations are obviously a major component and training objective.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on August 31, 2023, 12:37:16 PM
...and, I'll just leave this here.

https://warisboring.com/new-video-sparks-speculation-that-wagner-boss-is-still-alive-as-russia-denies-international-investigation/?fbclid=IwAR1scVO_P30hIDYjIoB89VforUZ9bQgJYbgOkUdgabdiV-Iz5qmVYsr6Ce4 (https://warisboring.com/new-video-sparks-speculation-that-wagner-boss-is-still-alive-as-russia-denies-international-investigation/?fbclid=IwAR1scVO_P30hIDYjIoB89VforUZ9bQgJYbgOkUdgabdiV-Iz5qmVYsr6Ce4)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 31, 2023, 01:46:17 PM
for Juice.  :planepilot:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1697276003175878840
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 31, 2023, 02:10:20 PM
thank you Arizona and JH.  maybe, based on Dets experience, Ukrainian NCOs and whatnot should get training at those establishments and not in Europe.  I can kind of see where British and German training might not have the scope or resources that the US has.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on August 31, 2023, 05:01:42 PM
I thought fort Irwin was the big combined arms training area.  Home of the infamous Opfor.  I came across a box of discarded Opfor unis when I was doing work there, it was a sweet find.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 31, 2023, 05:59:38 PM
ya NTC is awesome but also oriented towards mechanized formations.  if the UAF aren't going that route then an infantry oriented program would make more sense.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on August 31, 2023, 08:29:29 PM
All of those would be American locations, obviously.  I assume that the Ukrainian units received most of their training in European army bases, from European instructors.  But that's just a guess.

NATO doctrine can be the same, but that doesn't mean that every nations' instructors bring the same emphasis to the table.  I'm confident that those reports of COIN training are but.  But it's unclear how much COIN training they received, or how many units received it at all.  This is the sort of anecdotal stuff that spreads like wildfire through media channels and public perception, but never gets quantified.

I suspect Detcord may be closer to the truth than the rest of us.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on August 31, 2023, 10:00:13 PM
the russians have deployed Meal Team 2.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F43bsRKa4AAKDN3?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on September 01, 2023, 05:32:02 AM
"Now get this- then she lays back and says 'Do as you like', so I ladle up some borscht with extra sour cream and..."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 01, 2023, 08:21:03 AM
oy vey
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 01, 2023, 10:39:10 AM
New model Russian tanks, T-Waist-Size 90's?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 01, 2023, 02:55:03 PM
and in more Russia news...

Aug 19, Russian lunar lander crashes

Aug 30, Russian space program rocket expert dies from mushroom poisoning...

OK, so the guy was admitted to the hospital a day before the lander was launched...and he just died yesterday.

But you know...Russia... Even if it is a coincidence, nobody will believe it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/top-russian-rocket-scientist-dies-of-mushroom-poisoning-weeks-after-moscow-s-failed-moon-landing/ar-AA1g6voJ (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/top-russian-rocket-scientist-dies-of-mushroom-poisoning-weeks-after-moscow-s-failed-moon-landing/ar-AA1g6voJ)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 01, 2023, 05:02:46 PM
need to find all the maps to go with this.

Ukraine war: US sees 'notable progress' by Ukraine army in south (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66686149?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_link_origin=BBCWorld&at_link_id=62EB14E0-48E8-11EE-83B8-0A38FE754D29&at_campaign=Social_Flow&at_link_type=web_link&at_format=link&at_ptr_name=twitter&at_campaign_type=owned&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_medium=social)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 01, 2023, 08:33:47 PM
not a map but the most extensive cope cage yet.
this is a UAF 109.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F49wzKzW8AA4QTR?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 02, 2023, 11:40:16 AM
A recap of war-related news 14 hours ago by Business Basics:


One of the big things is Ukraine confirming their huge drone-strike operation on Pskov was launched by Ukraine from within Russia itself!

Uk pilots are training on Gripens, too, which will help them get up to speed on other modern jet systems later (like the F-16), and opens the door for nations (like Sweden or wherever Saab is based) to send excess Gripens to Ukraine later.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 02, 2023, 05:32:02 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5B0VB-agAAvumM?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 03, 2023, 08:01:59 AM
the latest and greatest of russian defense procedures.
tires on the wings...   :doh:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5GTX6-XwAAUFQ7?format=png&name=900x900)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5GT3dgX0AAmllU?format=png&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on September 03, 2023, 01:58:23 PM
Personally - and I'm fully aware of risk and understand the nations leaders being cautious - I'm ashamed of the west. Not NATO necessarily because they have "an out". But I'm ashaemd to be a European.

We've seen over decades how bullies, going unchecked, just crack on.

Putin is a fucking bully - and needs putting into check. He relies on the fears of nuclear war...and those fears are genuine - no doubt. But the West's answer is to not deal with him because "we're scared".

So we trickle help in and hope that will stem the flow of Russia. But honestly all it really does is put Ukrainian lives at risk whilst we sit on the sidelines and see how good (or bad) our kit is.

IMO, back in 2014, the UN should've got involved. With the UN involved, NATO could intervene when UN forces were attacked...and the UN being a multinational union would have been able to expect such support.

I know that's gone now - so the next best thing is for the West to say "No - our fighters are here to help Ukraine fight this aggression" and get fighters in there.

We did it in 1939 (well America did in 1941). I know Nuclear War is a concern...but fuck that shit. We can't live under the threat of a cunt because he's threatening nuclear armaggedon.

The west needs to get in there totally. No fucking half measures. Get in their and kick the fuckers out.

I'm not talking about America here. I'm talking about Europe. It's on their doorstep. When and if the Americans get involved is neither here nor there...stop this aggression now.

We fucked up in the 90's with Bosnia by waiting on the sidelines for the Americans to take the lead. Fuck that. Get in and kick that fucker out. Now.

That is all I have to say on the matter!

Good day gentlemen.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 03, 2023, 07:25:19 PM
https://kyivindependent.com/new-brigade-bears-heavy-brunt-of-russias-onslaught-in-kharkiv-oblast/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 04, 2023, 12:10:50 AM
So previously I had been following the battle of Verbove and said I'd heard some stuff that I didn't trust that was too good to be true. 

I'll go over it a bit now that things have settled in and why what I said was partly true partly not. 

So, anyone following knows now, that yes, the UAF broke the Surovikin line.  Everyone reports it now and it's a fact and there are possible next moves now that there's only one major line of defense left. 

What I'd heard was that, but only in part.  And I'm still not sure how much of the rest is true.

The reports that came out when the line fell was that there was a "general collapse".  The Russians shattered in multiple points and didn't defend the line as intended.

Words on Telegram were "Catastrophic" or "Disaster".  A lot of Russians felt the whole line would roll up west of Verbove where the UAF flanked the city and surprised the Russians with a concentrated and strong assault, something they'd hesitated to do.

That isn't entirely what happened.  The UAF did get into the works and past it, and now they have a solid control of the main part of the Surovikin line with the second line all that remains.

However, the Russians did retreat in good order, they did survive because of a spirited but failed counterattack by the 76th GAAD towards Robotyne, and the UAF did follow what has been their doctrine so far.  They dispersed their forces after they concentrated and are consolidating with their heavy units now pulling back and providing support.

A report from one UAF soldier said that after they broke the line the sky became "black" with drones.  The Russians are looking for concentrations to attack and the UAF is being pretty swift in only bringing strong forces together long enough to make a crack and then disperse.

Anything we see in the press right now is what it is.  They Russians are in a pretty bad position and know it.  They're digging new entrenchments north of Melitopol and committing what they have to Verbove. 

Verbove is now half and half in control and it looks like it will teeter.  The UAF is now using the Surovikin line themselves as their base of operations, turning the Russian works against them. 

It's going to be a to the bayonet's type of fight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 04, 2023, 12:20:05 AM
thats a nice widening of the base.  I wonder if the UAF will start pushing a bit south west now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 04, 2023, 07:51:38 AM
not to be outdone by the idea of tires on planes the russian army puts mobile SAM systems on bin block pedestals to defend moscow.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5Kh48uXMAARe9G?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 04, 2023, 09:29:00 AM
I think in this war, actually controlling a position is not as important as being able to hit it with firepower. The sack the Ukes have around Robovney can be hit from 3 sides with everything the Russkies can hit it with, thus the need to disperse their troops. And the need to enlarge the position. The first line as I understand it was just a Tank Ditch and Dragon's Teeth, not the actual trenches. The UAF is using almost exclusively infantry here as armor gets clobbered right away. How far can an Infantry-only drive get? Unless they get their arty to dominate, this maybe just a jumping-off place to hold onto until next Spring.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 04, 2023, 10:18:23 AM
you might want to go back a few pages and scroll through the trenchs post I put up.  that first line was not just a ditch and some concrete blocks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 04, 2023, 11:37:52 AM
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 04, 2023, 10:32:38 PM
Pardon me if I put more faith in what others post than you Star. It's not personal. There was video a couple of days back of a Ukrainian soldier walking to the east of the of the tank ditch and dragon's teeth which were clearly visible in the distance. If there was more than that there, I didn't see it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 05, 2023, 07:17:33 AM
 :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 05, 2023, 09:44:42 AM
In related news, I see the Ukrainians are altering their Draft/Conscription rules to include persons previously deferred for Medical Reasons as Able-Bodied now and subject to call-up. Also they're doing away with deferments for persons attending college previously not being called-up.

Probably most of this was needed and past due, and the Russkies are doing far worse to recruit men for the war, voluntarily or involuntary. But it does look more and more likely this war ain't near close to being over.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 05, 2023, 09:54:18 AM
The mobile SAMs on blocks are weird enough, but there's a photo or video floating around of another mobile SAM system (maybe not that large) up on a 20 to 30 foot steel scaffold.

At least the ones on the blocks could still theoretically roll back off on their tracks (there are stair-steps behind them).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 05, 2023, 05:07:01 PM
Re the abandoned teeth and trenches: I think the point is that they have been ABANDONED now rather than still being held. They were supported before now. Orks are falling back to the second line. Or father. To quote a movie I can't recall, "There may be no minimum safe distance."  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 05, 2023, 06:05:29 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 05, 2023, 09:54:18 AMThe mobile SAMs on blocks are weird enough, but there's a photo or video floating around of another mobile SAM system (maybe not that large) up on a 20 to 30 foot steel scaffold.

that would be this Pantsir, but don't put faith in that.   :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5KpsRdXIAAwf_6?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 05, 2023, 06:43:08 PM
Interesting read on unspecified NATO training vs Combat Reality for Ukrainian forces on the ground.
Sounds like at least in this case some of the training is to fight the last/cold NATO war again and not what the Ukrainians are fighting.  Tree line by tree line assaults against unimaginable numbers of mines, arty and drones in record numbers impacting CC and the OODA loop.

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1699193558685618235
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 05, 2023, 06:45:18 PM
a clearer picture of russias new tire armor on a Tu-95:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5SiJIJWoAAz1Yf?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 05, 2023, 08:04:16 PM
^Holy moly...is that real?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 05, 2023, 08:57:02 PM
ya, I only posted the original pics 2 days ago.
it also seems to be a different bomber.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 05, 2023, 09:01:03 PM
That is insane-balls and just reeks of desperation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 05, 2023, 09:07:55 PM
the first pic from the last page seemed to be operational as there are shadows from the propellers on the tarmac.
this pic doesn't have those shadows and its in a different location judging from the marks on the ground and orientation.
still..... 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 05, 2023, 09:16:26 PM
You love the smell of that Russian desperation, don't you...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 05, 2023, 10:02:30 PM
Apparently they are intended to keep small drones from penetrating the wing and exploding.  It seems kind of far fetched to me, but the article I read on it suggested that it might prove effective, unless the tires caught fire along with the wing.

Or maybe the Russians are just telling the world that their pilots are tired.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 05, 2023, 10:07:17 PM
Interesting piece on the evolving tactics and doctrines on both sides of the Ukrainian war.  It sounds like NATO training may have underestimated Russian units' abilities to adapt to the realities of war. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/05/to-slow-the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-the-russian-army-quadrupled-the-size-of-its-minefields/?sh=52f1981769e8

It remains to be seen whether the Ukrainians can piece Russian minefields faster than the Russians can lay new ones.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 05, 2023, 10:30:53 PM
You can NEVER have too many spare tires my old Shop Teacher used to say.  :huh: There's also a line about spare rubbers that's just begging to be thrown-in here.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 05, 2023, 11:07:18 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 05, 2023, 09:16:26 PMYou love the smell of that Russian desperation, don't you...

very much so  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: DetCord on September 06, 2023, 01:20:09 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 04, 2023, 12:10:50 AMSo previously I had been following the battle of Verbove and said I'd heard some stuff that I didn't trust that was too good to be true. 

I'll go over it a bit now that things have settled in and why what I said was partly true partly not. 

So, anyone following knows now, that yes, the UAF broke the Surovikin line.  Everyone reports it now and it's a fact and there are possible next moves now that there's only one major line of defense left. 

What I'd heard was that, but only in part.  And I'm still not sure how much of the rest is true.

The reports that came out when the line fell was that there was a "general collapse".  The Russians shattered in multiple points and didn't defend the line as intended.

Words on Telegram were "Catastrophic" or "Disaster".  A lot of Russians felt the whole line would roll up west of Verbove where the UAF flanked the city and surprised the Russians with a concentrated and strong assault, something they'd hesitated to do.

That isn't entirely what happened.  The UAF did get into the works and past it, and now they have a solid control of the main part of the Surovikin line with the second line all that remains.

However, the Russians did retreat in good order, they did survive because of a spirited but failed counterattack by the 76th GAAD towards Robotyne, and the UAF did follow what has been their doctrine so far.  They dispersed their forces after they concentrated and are consolidating with their heavy units now pulling back and providing support.

A report from one UAF soldier said that after they broke the line the sky became "black" with drones.  The Russians are looking for concentrations to attack and the UAF is being pretty swift in only bringing strong forces together long enough to make a crack and then disperse.

Anything we see in the press right now is what it is.  They Russians are in a pretty bad position and know it.  They're digging new entrenchments north of Melitopol and committing what they have to Verbove. 

Verbove is now half and half in control and it looks like it will teeter.  The UAF is now using the Surovikin line themselves as their base of operations, turning the Russian works against them. 

It's going to be a to the bayonet's type of fight.

I keep seeing this and posts like it. Developments like this, others, and previous ones ultimately mean nothing. I was there for the Kharkiv Offensive. We took horrendous casualties in that endeavour (60%+) to recapture that region that ultimately accomplished nothing other than attempting to reestablish pre-war borders.

Territory caps mean absolutely nothing if the enemy is able to withdrawal intact. For a victory to occur you need to destroy the enemy in your AO via encirclement and flanks and press home the advantage. We didn't do that. They simply pulled back into Russia proper. They were bloodied yes, broken and destroyed, no. This has been the near constant of the entire war.

The Surovikin line? I don't believe it. It's likely recon and LAR elements that slipped through. We simply don't have the manpower and power-projection to exploit such a breakthrough, period. The Russians have IDF and CAS superiority the closer you get, something we never had.

   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 06, 2023, 11:59:26 AM
@JD

Just read your post Judge and it's great.  You make a lot of great points. 

Recently I read an article that states the real purpose of this war, in which the innocent are slain by the bushel, is because it is much more sterile to make others fight the war for you whilst the western (AKA USA) military industrial complex and the wicked politicians that benefit from it makes obscene amounts of money.  It's an ingenious plan really.  The public doesn't give a damn we're sending boat loads of money to a war, that can't be won by the way unless we do get involved, because no US lives are being lost. 

On another note, anyone here still in the Navy or have access to data that we civies don't have?  Because I saw a disturbing article that claimed 10 out of the 11 carriers we have are all in their home ports.  Like a Pearl Harbor 2.0 waiting to happen?  Can anyone here deny or confirm this?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 06, 2023, 12:28:10 PM
I know what you're saying, but I'd rather joke about the T-bomber pilots claiming tomorrow that the tires provide stealth capability!

There are other factors: the Russian government has made it clear they're going to ethnically cleanse the Ukrainians, and they've also made clear they don't intend to stop with Ukraine.

Call it another domino-theory, but by helping Ukraine we're slowing down their death toll and postponing or avoiding a NATO vs Russia war which could have a lot worse results than US lives being lost in Ukraine.

This of course is not mutually exclusive to war profiteering. But the innocent were going to be slain by the train-car instead of the bushel if we weren't helping at all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 06, 2023, 01:39:15 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on September 06, 2023, 11:59:26 AM@JD

J...
On another note, anyone here still in the Navy or have access to data that we civies don't have?  Because I saw a disturbing article that claimed 10 out of the 11 carriers we have are all in their home ports.  Like a Pearl Harbor 2.0 waiting to happen?  Can anyone here deny or confirm this?

Here's the USNI Fleet tracker.  https://news.usni.org/2023/09/05/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-sept-5-2023.  From this, it looks like there is one carrier (NIMITZ) in work ups off California, the FORD CSG deployed to 6th Fleet, and the REAGAN forward deployed to Yokosuka
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 06, 2023, 02:48:37 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on September 06, 2023, 01:39:15 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on September 06, 2023, 11:59:26 AM@JD

J...
On another note, anyone here still in the Navy or have access to data that we civies don't have?  Because I saw a disturbing article that claimed 10 out of the 11 carriers we have are all in their home ports.  Like a Pearl Harbor 2.0 waiting to happen?  Can anyone here deny or confirm this?

Here's the USNI Fleet tracker.  https://news.usni.org/2023/09/05/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-sept-5-2023.  From this, it looks like there is one carrier (NIMITZ) in work ups off California, the FORD CSG deployed to 6th Fleet, and the REAGAN forward deployed to Yokosuka
Looks like the southern hemisphere is entirely undefended! :shocked:
Australia needs a carrier!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 06, 2023, 03:17:30 PM
The Grogs should pool their resources and buy the Enterprise. 

It'd be a nice upgrade from DCS.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 06, 2023, 05:07:45 PM
I thought we'd use the Enterprise as an upgrade to the Grogheads' mythical front page?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 06, 2023, 07:51:21 PM
What front page?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 06, 2023, 09:49:12 PM
I want to be in charge of Keel-Hauling whatever that is. Oh, and the Grog Locker. Grog for the Grogs you know.  :tequila:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 07, 2023, 12:05:30 AM
you might want to look that up.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 07, 2023, 09:20:01 AM
You're probably right. If it involves, 'hauling' then that's probably more work than I'm interested in. I'll just stand at the bow and play like I'm on Titanic.  :Hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 07, 2023, 09:44:22 AM
"Don't let go, Slash.  Never let go!"

I always thought the Grog locker was more of just an oversized tankard.  Or are there multiple tankards stored in the locker? 

I only got invited here nine months after everybody else left Wargamer.com, so the origin story here is a bit hazy to me...     :laugh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on September 07, 2023, 10:13:53 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on September 06, 2023, 01:39:15 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on September 06, 2023, 11:59:26 AM@JD

J...
On another note, anyone here still in the Navy or have access to data that we civies don't have?  Because I saw a disturbing article that claimed 10 out of the 11 carriers we have are all in their home ports.  Like a Pearl Harbor 2.0 waiting to happen?  Can anyone here deny or confirm this?

Here's the USNI Fleet tracker.  https://news.usni.org/2023/09/05/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-sept-5-2023.  From this, it looks like there is one carrier (NIMITZ) in work ups off California, the FORD CSG deployed to 6th Fleet, and the REAGAN forward deployed to Yokosuka

Fascinating website.  Thanks for the link Tripoli!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 07, 2023, 11:42:04 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 06, 2023, 03:17:30 PMThe Grogs should pool their resources and buy the Enterprise. 

It'd be a nice upgrade from DCS.

HURRY! https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-u-s-navy-will-destroy-its-very-first-nuclear-powered-aircraft-carrier/ar-AA1gngn5?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=8aa313e5faa9494ea166cc7d78a14fac&ei=61
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 07, 2023, 11:46:38 AM
Much more seriously, I meant to remark yesterday that (along with everyone else here I expect), I REALLY appreciate DetCord's on-the-ground remembrances and evaluations of what's going on over there.  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 07, 2023, 10:41:12 PM
No one's ever seen the real Grog's Locker Sooner. Jarhead keeps it in an undisclosed location protected by R. Lee Ermey's ghost and a giant three-headed dog with rabies. Rumors are it resembles a huge dongle. Or it could be hidden under Gus' bed, we're not sure.  :lipsrsealed:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 08, 2023, 09:57:54 AM
If anybody is talking about a huge dongle under Gus' bed, I'm going to politely check out other threads for a day or two!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 08, 2023, 10:09:09 AM
Me too  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 08, 2023, 12:27:41 PM
I am now forced to assume Sir Slash's account has been co-opted by Russian bots, trying to get us to ignore Ukrainian war news.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 08, 2023, 04:30:26 PM
I read somewhere that the UAF are pleased with the Challengers on several measures, optics and intimidation factor
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 08, 2023, 08:07:48 PM
well thats good because they just lost their first one this weeks.
immobilized by a mine and the crew bails out. supposedly they thermite the inside because they dont think they can
recover it.  the russians then hit it with a bunch more UAVs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 08, 2023, 09:16:54 PM
Quote from: DetCord on September 06, 2023, 01:20:09 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 04, 2023, 12:10:50 AMSo previously I had been following the battle of Verbove and said I'd heard some stuff that I didn't trust that was too good to be true. 

I'll go over it a bit now that things have settled in and why what I said was partly true partly not. 

So, anyone following knows now, that yes, the UAF broke the Surovikin line.  Everyone reports it now and it's a fact and there are possible next moves now that there's only one major line of defense left. 

What I'd heard was that, but only in part.  And I'm still not sure how much of the rest is true.

The reports that came out when the line fell was that there was a "general collapse".  The Russians shattered in multiple points and didn't defend the line as intended.

Words on Telegram were "Catastrophic" or "Disaster".  A lot of Russians felt the whole line would roll up west of Verbove where the UAF flanked the city and surprised the Russians with a concentrated and strong assault, something they'd hesitated to do.

That isn't entirely what happened.  The UAF did get into the works and past it, and now they have a solid control of the main part of the Surovikin line with the second line all that remains.

However, the Russians did retreat in good order, they did survive because of a spirited but failed counterattack by the 76th GAAD towards Robotyne, and the UAF did follow what has been their doctrine so far.  They dispersed their forces after they concentrated and are consolidating with their heavy units now pulling back and providing support.

A report from one UAF soldier said that after they broke the line the sky became "black" with drones.  The Russians are looking for concentrations to attack and the UAF is being pretty swift in only bringing strong forces together long enough to make a crack and then disperse.

Anything we see in the press right now is what it is.  They Russians are in a pretty bad position and know it.  They're digging new entrenchments north of Melitopol and committing what they have to Verbove. 

Verbove is now half and half in control and it looks like it will teeter.  The UAF is now using the Surovikin line themselves as their base of operations, turning the Russian works against them. 

It's going to be a to the bayonet's type of fight.

I keep seeing this and posts like it. Developments like this, others, and previous ones ultimately mean nothing. I was there for the Kharkiv Offensive. We took horrendous casualties in that endeavour (60%+) to recapture that region that ultimately accomplished nothing other than attempting to reestablish pre-war borders.

Territory caps mean absolutely nothing if the enemy is able to withdrawal intact. For a victory to occur you need to destroy the enemy in your AO via encirclement and flanks and press home the advantage. We didn't do that. They simply pulled back into Russia proper. They were bloodied yes, broken and destroyed, no. This has been the near constant of the entire war.

The Surovikin line? I don't believe it. It's likely recon and LAR elements that slipped through. We simply don't have the manpower and power-projection to exploit such a breakthrough, period. The Russians have IDF and CAS superiority the closer you get, something we never had.

 

Out of curiosity, do you have any kind of proof of your claim that you served in the Kharkiv offensive?  I understand OpSec probably prevented you from taking selfies at key landmarks, but I don't exactly find "I was there, trust me" to be compelling evidence for your assertions.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 08, 2023, 10:02:39 PM
Russian bots wouldn't dare hijack my account. My Family Lineage goes back to Genghis Khan's lesser known brother, Wilbur and they DO NOT want to get them started again.  :HideEyes:

I see the Ukrainians are now preparing to conscript into military service women with experience or education in the Medical field which had previously been voluntary and limiting their travel to within the country. Looks like this war is just getting started.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2023, 01:11:56 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1700553253346300152
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 09, 2023, 01:49:11 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 09, 2023, 01:11:56 PMhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1700553253346300152

Hm, your twitter or X link or whatever it's called didn't show up at all that time, Star. I'm reposting without the {img} tags to see if that helps.

Edited to add: yep that worked, it wasn't really an "img" anyway. Amusingly, "x" is still called "twitter" on its http! -- I didn't realize that until now. More amusing to watch a Leo smack around T-80s tho!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 09, 2023, 01:56:23 PM
Anyway, NATO exercises kicking off in the Baltics -- and then next week, in the Black Sea!


(Among other news.) The US and Romania will be doing joint exercises with Ukraine and in the Danube Delta. The same Danube delta area that Russia hit again with a drone recently.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 09, 2023, 02:25:29 PM
Seems like the kinda fight the Leopard would be likely to win, but it's still good to see!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 09, 2023, 11:39:56 PM
A few Ukrainian troops have made it into the northwestern side of Novamayors'ke, which is increasingly bad news for Russian supply going into anywhere southwest of Donetsk City.

...where Ukrainian soldiers kinnnnnnda sorta flew a nice large Ukrainian flag! Rather literally!

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2023, 09:33:37 AM
when you have to sell everything you have to keep your shit economy and war effort going....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5qC9XcW0AAlnY3?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5qC9BcXsAAozTO?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 10, 2023, 09:35:57 AM
more on this:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/22/7416591/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on September 10, 2023, 03:28:22 PM
Wasn't a "fuel shortage" the basis for the book Red Storm Rising? Although as I understand it, Russia is nowhere near the required capability to attack the west as in the book.

As I said in a previous post - I'm shameful of Europe not just saying "fuck it" and getting in there.

I'm worried about America's future election and the possibility they will pull out of supporting Ukraine because ultimately, for very embarassing reasons, it would likely mean Europe would pull it's support.

I hope - I so hope - that Europe will not pull their support and actually try and ramp up that support, as best they can, should America pull out - but honestly, I fear after America gets tired of supporting Ukraine, the Wests support for Ukraine will follow and that will be the end for Ukraine...they'll be left alone and isolated.

How that will leave Russia is....unknown. Certainly weaker - but they WILL know that the threat of a nuclear strike - however veiled and false - will result in the rollover of the west in whatever conflict Russia decides to get involved in and NATO does not.

What a sad state of affairs that you can be so strong, and yet so weak.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 11, 2023, 12:51:52 AM
^ Alas, Lawrence Freeman in his latest blog post discusses the arguments for and against support for Ukraine.

American Grand Strategy, Realism, and the Russo-Ukraine War - No, it's not another Vietnam (https://samf.substack.com/p/american-grand-strategy-realism-and?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2)

A recommended read, once again, I do like his calm and objective approach to various topics around the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

He concludes:

QuoteChoices in foreign policy are never simple and are always sub-optimal. The choice faced now is whether to continue to support Ukraine fighting a messy, tragic war, which it may take time to win, or to let it carry on alone, with the prospect of an even more tragic conclusion from which the Western Alliance, let alone Ukraine, might never recover.

As Western countries are not actually doing the fighting and have the resources to sustain Ukraine in its struggle, in the end this is not that difficult a choice to make.

Prior to this, however, lots of arguments worth a look imho.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 11, 2023, 12:37:47 PM
Yes, in RSR Islamic terrorists struck one of the USSR's only three key oil refineries, destroying it sufficiently to cause an oil panic. They would need to conquer serious portions of the Middle East to recover capacity in time to stave off social anarchy and political collapse; but to do that they needed to remove NATO as a threat on their flank, so etc.

Ironically, modern Russia is so bad off that they can have crappy oil production and still survive! -- but it's still pretty bad, and only in the last year or two before their invasion had they managed to get the Siberian lines running again after the technical collapse in the wake of the fall of the USSR.

They need Ukraine for many demographic reasons, simply to survive (it really is an existential crisis for their government); but arguably they need to loot or bully Romania and its more developed and climate-stable oil production, and that ain't happening until they can get force deployed to lots of the Ukrainian border, a la Stalin (who didn't really need Romanian oil but knew that Hitler needed it).

If you ask why modern Russia doesn't just bootstrap up the oil production in the Caucases that Hitler and Stalin ended up fighting over, my answer boils down to pointing at modern Russia's governmental competency and making Donald Sutherland's face-meme from Invasion of the Body-snatchers.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 11, 2023, 03:34:28 PM
Hey Judge Dredd:

(https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/a9oAAOSwKk5eVxC0/s-l300.jpg)

Also Poland, the Baltic and Scandinavian states as well will continue to support Ukraine as a bulwark against Russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2023, 06:28:00 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 11, 2023, 12:37:47 PMIf you ask why modern Russia doesn't just bootstrap up the oil production in the Caucases that Hitler and Stalin ended up fighting over, my answer boils down to pointing at modern Russia's governmental competency and making Donald Sutherland's face-meme from Invasion of the Body-snatchers.

um, theres also the problem that there are two other countries that now exist there.
and neither is particularly fond of russia.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2023, 06:29:53 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5xo3sEWYAAxuH6?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2023, 06:57:07 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1701324009151799631
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2023, 07:03:29 PM
and this weeks luckiest Ukrainian award goes to:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1701001962836430980

https://twitter.com/i/status/1701001964484714892
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 11, 2023, 08:50:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 11, 2023, 06:28:00 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 11, 2023, 12:37:47 PMIf you ask why modern Russia doesn't just bootstrap up the oil production in the Caucases that Hitler and Stalin ended up fighting over, my answer boils down to pointing at modern Russia's governmental competency and making Donald Sutherland's face-meme from Invasion of the Body-snatchers.

um, theres also the problem that there are two other countries that now exist there.
and neither is particularly fond of russia.

I accept sucky-ass foreign policy within the overarching ambit of modern Russia's governmental incompetency, thus still boiling down to Donald Sutherland's face-meme.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 12, 2023, 07:25:59 AM
Putin wakes up one morning and suddenly says the Soviet invasions of Czechoslovakia and Hungary were wrong.

More likely this is Putin pandering to Slovakia and Hungary...hoping for cracks in NATO solidarity.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hungary-czechoslovakia-invasions-were-wrong-putin-says/ar-AA1gAYtM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=54290f26f4f647a6ad0b5a8123f96fb0&ei=18 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hungary-czechoslovakia-invasions-were-wrong-putin-says/ar-AA1gAYtM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=54290f26f4f647a6ad0b5a8123f96fb0&ei=18)

I doubt this message goes far with those in the western leaning sections of Budapest and Bratislava. Kind of like saying: "I think it was wrong that my grandfather raped your grandmother and stole her house." Saying it was "wrong" is understatement that will be sure to induce eye-rolls for quite some time.

But Putin's message is not for those who look west. It is aimed at those who may be persuaded to lean toward Putin's orbit; Orban for example.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 12, 2023, 07:33:09 AM
Victor Orban of Hungary is a Putin fan boi anyway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on September 12, 2023, 10:15:32 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on September 11, 2023, 03:34:28 PMHey Judge Dredd:

(https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/a9oAAOSwKk5eVxC0/s-l300.jpg)

Also Poland, the Baltic and Scandinavian states as well will continue to support Ukraine as a bulwark against Russia.
Alas I'm Scottish, but I appreciate the sentiment  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 12, 2023, 11:22:51 AM
Putin: the Soviet invasion of Nazi-controlled Czech remnants during WW2 was wrong.

Also Putin: NAZI UKRAINE MUST BE DESTROYED!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 12, 2023, 12:29:04 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 12, 2023, 11:22:51 AMPutin: the Soviet invasion of Nazi-controlled Czech remnants during WW2 was wrong.

Also Putin: NAZI UKRAINE MUST BE DESTROYED!
I was under the assumption he was talking about the Prague Spring invasion.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 12, 2023, 02:06:26 PM
And today, Hitler's ghost commented, "Damn, he needs to get over it".  :ghost:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 12, 2023, 05:59:16 PM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on September 12, 2023, 10:15:32 AMAlas I'm Scottish, but I appreciate the sentiment  :notworthy:
I noticed Alba gu'brath as your tag after I made my post.  I'll return that with Cymru am byth.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2023, 06:18:23 PM
unveiled today in Georgia (the country)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F53FzpDXAAASjlb?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2023, 06:27:57 PM
you might notice that this isnt at an airport.
one might also notice that this is a russian Airbus 320.
guess whos running out of spare parts.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F52CqcUWAAA1ubR?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2023, 07:41:53 PM
fuck russia

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F51-tysW0AALGvl?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 12, 2023, 07:51:46 PM
^Ugh
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 12, 2023, 08:17:04 PM
 :RockOn:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1701580656185168025
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 12, 2023, 09:13:28 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on September 12, 2023, 12:29:04 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 12, 2023, 11:22:51 AMPutin: the Soviet invasion of Nazi-controlled Czech remnants during WW2 was wrong.

Also Putin: NAZI UKRAINE MUST BE DESTROYED!
I was under the assumption he was talking about the Prague Spring invasion.

Indeed, I hadn't gotten around to reading it yet: "The Soviet Union invaded Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 following mass protests and demands for greater freedoms."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 13, 2023, 02:23:49 PM
Apparently the Ukrainians conducted a very successful missile strike against the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol last night destroying the, 'Minsk' a landing ship and the submarine, 'Rostov-On-Don' a Kilo Class.  :shocked:   That ought to cause Putin's Blood Pressure to go up about a hundred points.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 13, 2023, 03:11:55 PM
An unhappy Rumania has entered the chat:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66794880
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 13, 2023, 04:53:16 PM
So if a Ukrainian SAM shoots down a Russian drone over the Danube, and some of the pieces of the drone land in Romania but nobody sees it, did it actually happen?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2023, 06:09:30 PM
 :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F57-F1WbkAAUBi9?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2023, 06:22:07 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F56_ex_WsAAU_Xn?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 13, 2023, 09:21:52 PM
More careless cigarette smoking?  :headscratch:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 13, 2023, 09:45:13 PM
Storm Shadow cruise missiles vs very fixed targets.  :Party:
which means air launched cruise missiles from somewhere over the SW Black Sea by the UkAF.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 14, 2023, 10:57:54 AM
I'd say that surface ship is a loss.... tougher to tell about the submarine.

Dollar for dollar, I'd say that is a very fair trade.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 14, 2023, 01:12:10 PM
The UK came close to losing an RAF crew of 30 last fall:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66798508
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 14, 2023, 09:44:40 PM
Sounds very, "Hunt For Red October"-ish doesn't it?  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2023, 10:18:40 PM
Quote from: Windigo on September 14, 2023, 10:57:54 AMI'd say that surface ship is a loss.... tougher to tell about the submarine.

Dollar for dollar, I'd say that is a very fair trade.

was watching the dockside video of it today.  its a total write off.  the sub is also fucked.  even if it didnt take a direct hit the fire of the ship next to it cooked its tiles.  most importantly, both dry docks are fucked and that leaves just one the russians have in the Black Sea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2023, 10:19:45 PM
ah here it is:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1702487728393240661
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 14, 2023, 10:34:13 PM
Yeah.  I take it all with a grain of salt, but here is a pretty detailed article talking about how it happened:  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/13/ukrainian-bombers-firing-western-cruise-missiles-have-destroyed-a-russian-submarine/?ss=aerospace-defense&sh=5404016d1ea7.

Apparently, they used commandos to disable a couple of sensor platforms on oceanic rigs, and they exploited a recently created hole in the Russian SAM network to target both ships with 10 British and/or French cruise missiles.  It seems counterintuitive, but if ships are in dry dock, they're often not well manned, have their power (and firefighting systems) turned off, and have lots more flammable materials lying around.

That, or the Russians just didn't put enough tires on top of those two ships...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 14, 2023, 11:10:08 PM
what you described sounds like a much more awesome operation.
it jives with the alleged destruction of a whole s-400 system, radars and all launch platforms.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 15, 2023, 12:54:17 AM
Toasted sub, anyone?

https://twitter.com/Believe_In_Ukr/status/1702098953066487948

Let us not be unreasonable, though:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1702293180446646686
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 15, 2023, 08:59:01 AM
Say hello to our new Polish overlords.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 15, 2023, 10:25:50 AM
Looking at the flame colours coming off the warship, I would say it is well and truly fucked. The core white in the flame says there are high temps being reached and some metals are melting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 15, 2023, 10:54:08 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-landing-ship-destroyed-and-it-will-take-years-to-repair-submarine-uk-intelligence/ar-AA1gKUrC?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=44e05e035f3448aba5bcdf971d3bcc7e&ei=15#image=1

MSN is quoting UK intelligence as saying the sub is effectively a mid-term loss, although it might be able to be salvaged after years and hundreds of millions of dollars.  According to them, the Minsk is a gonner.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 15, 2023, 12:35:02 PM
Damn good bang for the buck for the UAF with this sortie.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 15, 2023, 06:53:09 PM
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-targeting-cant-catch-ukraine-air-force-top-us-general-2023-9?amp
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 16, 2023, 11:54:46 AM
The events around Andriivka are even more devastating for the Russian army than anticipated.

According to the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade the village was completely surrounded, killing command staff of Russian 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade and trapping some parts of the brigade. During the entire battle, large portions of the army unit were destroyed or captured, effectively destroying the entire Russian 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade.

The destruction of this Russian army unit rips a hole in the Russian defenses south of Bakhmut and further complicates the situation for the Russian army which already has sent large reserves to the Zaporizhzhia Front, exposing other frontlines such as this one.

Source: https://t.me/ab3army/3148

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6ILnRaWEAAkKBg?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6IMrtlWUAE3YOp?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 16, 2023, 12:00:41 PM
I'm liking the pattern of one UkAF push stalling and another punch being delivered elsewhere along the front.
great way to scatter and diffuse russian reserves and supplies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 16, 2023, 02:32:51 PM
Task & Purpose analyses the set-up for the strike on the Sevastopol port:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 16, 2023, 02:43:46 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1702964504143839335
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2023, 10:16:47 AM
rather grim but fuck russia

https://twitter.com/i/status/1703342982361911701
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2023, 10:18:33 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6O6ecnXgAAHMK9?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 17, 2023, 12:37:44 PM
At times I think you're turning this thread into an Altar of Hate, Star.  I don't know you aside from your online persona, but your online persona seems to be one that Worships Anything That Kills Russians and giggles at human misery.  If that is true, you've become dangerously close to becoming what you claim to hate.

Embrace the Dark Side.  It will make you strong!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2023, 01:41:06 PM
I only giggle at russian misery.  they're shitty people with a shitty culture and a shit government.
would you expect me to feel bad for nazis during WW2?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on September 17, 2023, 03:33:14 PM

The Germans and Austrians rehabilitated their culture over time.  My family has fought against them in both world wars, including a great-grandfather who went into the trenches at sixteen and died from gas destroyed lungs, when his daughter was only sixteen herself.   She went on to marry my grandfather who was captured in Dunkirk after his regiment fought against 1SS and was subjected to the Wormhoudt massacre.  He spent five years in a POW camp, very near Auschwitz, and survived "the March".  Not as horrific as being in Auschwitz but the SS threatened to murder him and his fellow prisoners on at least one occasion; having done as bad a job as possible building roads, resulting in the crash of a senior officer.  He suffered from nightmares from the experience but still taught me to be an optimist.  Despite these things, I have been able to overcome my prejudice against Germans and will not hate them despite the destruction they caused

It is disappointing that the Russians haven't resisted their leadership and ended the war and they will have a long period as international pariahs. However, they are not without people of morality and conscience.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 17, 2023, 03:55:30 PM
let me know when russia starts that rehabilitation.
until then, fuck em.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 17, 2023, 09:54:31 PM
Don't forget Afghanistan Star, you also want to -uck them as well. One honest election in Russia is all it would take to solve their problems and end this war. It's kind of hard to be a moral person with a gun pointed at your head. I hope no one here ever has to choose between killing someone you don't hate and being killed for not killing someone you don't hate.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2023, 07:02:44 AM
very funny that the backround was blurred for security reasons.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6Te9XWXcAA8-28?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6Te8IrWoAAVCl4?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2023, 08:36:14 AM
dont know about the farthest but I'll give it points for hang time.
9/10

https://twitter.com/i/status/1703753167085646279
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 18, 2023, 10:53:13 AM
I just can't buy the notion that an entire Russian army brigade was destroyed in Andivika, the pre-war population was less than a hundred so where would the Russians hide 4,000-5,000 men at? And why would they put that many men in one little Podunk town? They'd more probably be spread-out along the entire line. If there were thousands of dead bears lying in a village without one building left standing I think they would be very easy to see. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 18, 2023, 11:14:13 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 17, 2023, 09:54:31 PMOne honest election in Russia is all it would take to solve their problems and end this war.

Sir Slash, That one honest election is never going to happen with their current kleptocracy.... never...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 18, 2023, 11:15:24 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2023, 07:02:44 AMvery funny that the backround was blurred for security reasons.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6Te9XWXcAA8-28?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6Te8IrWoAAVCl4?format=jpg&name=large)

and she gone...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 18, 2023, 11:20:56 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 18, 2023, 10:53:13 AMI just can't buy the notion that an entire Russian army brigade was destroyed in Andivika, the pre-war population was less than a hundred so where would the Russians hide 4,000-5,000 men at? And why would they put that many men in one little Podunk town? They'd more probably be spread-out along the entire line. If there were thousands of dead bears lying in a village without one building left standing I think they would be very easy to see. 

While it seems that this number is really high, remember how orders are carried out/chain of command functions in the Russian forces? In my mind this is entirely possible with just a few orders carried out.

The Russians do fairly well in trench warfare, but when the battlefield becomes foggy, they are terrible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 18, 2023, 12:26:18 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2023, 07:02:44 AMvery funny that the backround was blurred for security reasons.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6Te9XWXcAA8-28?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6Te8IrWoAAVCl4?format=jpg&name=large)
Need to know - what tire defense doing?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 18, 2023, 01:19:56 PM
Even one honest election in Russia would probably put a gung-ho strongman on the triggers. Prigo was apparently very popular.

A lot of Russians evidently believe the anti-Uk propaganda; they just don't trust the competency of their military or that the military will properly take care of their own people.

Admittedly, who knows? -- I hear all kinds of things. But by the same token, who knows? At best an honest election would be a crapshoot, and THAT assumes whoever wins power will work for peace -- either for or against the honest vote which put him there.

How often to politicians in real republics do what they promised they'd do to get hired?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2023, 01:46:46 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 18, 2023, 10:53:13 AMI just can't buy the notion that an entire Russian army brigade was destroyed in Andivika, the pre-war population was less than a hundred so where would the Russians hide 4,000-5,000 men at?


I've learned not to get fixated on a specific location with how things are reported.  better to think of it as the Andivika sector got hammered, not just the village.  it would also serve you well to look at the terrain of the area and how the rail line dominates it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 18, 2023, 01:52:35 PM
True, the HQs may have been (apparently were?) in the town, but the brigade elements would be deployed mostly around it.

Do I remember hearing that a serious number of officers up to generals got crunched there?  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2023, 03:03:12 PM
a serious number, as in all of them.  :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2023, 03:07:59 PM
heres a russian bmp going full Leroy Jenkins.  seems pretty effective ngl.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1703668189521920395
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 18, 2023, 03:11:14 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 18, 2023, 01:19:56 PMEven one honest election in Russia would probably put a gung-ho strongman on the triggers. Prigo was apparently very popular.

A lot of Russians evidently believe the anti-Uk propaganda; they just don't trust the competency of their military or that the military will properly take care of their own people.

Admittedly, who knows? -- I hear all kinds of things. But by the same token, who knows? At best an honest election would be a crapshoot, and THAT assumes whoever wins power will work for peace -- either for or against the honest vote which put him there.

How often to politicians in real republics do what they promised they'd do to get hired?

Sadly, historically, getting rid of authoritarian rulers has never been easy. They like having large wings of their palace dedicated to their wife's shoe collection.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 18, 2023, 03:44:25 PM
It's an interesting question, what is the political alchemy for transforming authoritarian governments into liberal democracies.

The most successful examples from the 20th century have probably been Germany, Japan, and South Korea.  Numerous Central and South American countries also seem to be making that transition successfully, although it's often a "two steps up, one step back" kind of process.

Russia saw an explosion of liberal society over the last 20 years.  Unfortunately, almost all of that was outside the halls of political power--in NGOs, in classrooms, in non-state media outlets, etc.  The recent crackdown from the hardliner-oligarchs calling the shots in the Kremlin has silenced many of those would-be-liberals, while it's driven many others out of the country.

Even if it weren't for their status as pariah outcasts, the Russian country and the Russian economy would be deeply screwed based on corruption, demographics, and economics alone.  Add in the international embargoes, the increasingly limited choice of trade partners, and the brain drain from a decimated middle class, and it gets even worse.

I'd be lying if I said that I feel sorry for them.  I feel sadness, but justice is seldom a dish that gets served gently.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 18, 2023, 03:48:36 PM
It's pretty clear that the educated GTFO and the uneducated GF'd.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2023, 07:47:46 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1703766517488193792
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on September 19, 2023, 12:37:35 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2023, 07:47:46 PMhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1703766517488193792
I'd hate to have to stop ina  hurry in that "jeep".

That reminded me of the T-Rex chase scene in Jurassic Park.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 19, 2023, 01:35:11 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on September 19, 2023, 12:37:35 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 18, 2023, 07:47:46 PMhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1703766517488193792
I'd hate to have to stop ina  hurry in that "jeep".

That reminded me of the T-Rex chase scene in Jurassic Park.

OBJECTS IN MIRROR ARE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 02:23:25 AM
for what its worth Ive now read on several sub threads that these engines can be tweaked to go 75+ mph on paved roads.   :tanker:
and while this doesn't surprise me, its a totally different thing to actually see.
how often does one see 63 tons moving that fast?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 08:23:46 AM
totally normal country...    :uglystupid2:


https://twitter.com/i/status/1703959684498034700
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 09:26:17 AM
it would seem that the Ukranian naval drones got a nice piece of newer patrol ship.

https://sundries.com.ua/en/russian-navy-ship-sergei-kotov-is-shot-down-in-the-black-sea-diu-discloses-details/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 19, 2023, 09:40:22 AM
I am both stymied and aroused.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 19, 2023, 09:47:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 09:26:17 AMit would seem that the Ukranian naval drones got a nice piece of newer patrol ship.

https://sundries.com.ua/en/russian-navy-ship-sergei-kotov-is-shot-down-in-the-black-sea-diu-discloses-details/

I hope Taiwan is paying attention to Ukraine's lead. After all, Taiwan makes a bunch of the chips that go into those drones. Seems like a swarm of cheap kamikaze drones (surface, sub-surface and air) might make China's crossing a nightmare.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 19, 2023, 09:54:18 AM
Russian soldiers taking coin to sabotage their own side?

Even if true, it doesn't sound widespread. But still interesting. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-working-as-double-agents-are-killing-their-comrades-for-cash-and-the-chance-to-live-abroad-report-says/ar-AA1gWMaF?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=2510627ad31d436092b01be1a57e3365&ei=18 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-working-as-double-agents-are-killing-their-comrades-for-cash-and-the-chance-to-live-abroad-report-says/ar-AA1gWMaF?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=2510627ad31d436092b01be1a57e3365&ei=18)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 19, 2023, 09:54:54 AM
With me the, 'aroused' usually comes first followed by the, 'stymied' part.  :doh:

The rail line east of Andrivka dominating the village makes my point. Why would the Russians leave an entire brigade there when there are much better defensive positions just to the east? I think we'll see another slow consolidation of the positions around the village followed by the usual scouting to the east, then a more general assault later. If there's time before the rain begins.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 10:06:15 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 19, 2023, 09:40:22 AMI am both stymied and aroused.

this ship is capable of firing Kaliber cruise missiles.
just taking it out of service is important.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 10:09:48 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 19, 2023, 09:54:54 AMThe rail line east of Andrivka dominating the village makes my point. Why would the Russians leave an entire brigade there when there are much better defensive positions just to the east?

probably they arent allowed to retreat.  and if they did fall back that helps further stick russians to Bakmut.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6VhtFkWMAAy6Bc?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on September 19, 2023, 11:12:36 AM
Went down the rabbit hole and watched a ton of zeihan.  Demographically, neither side should be fighting this war, the inverted pyramid of population bubbles they live in can't afford any working age 20 year olds to die, they need to be working and impregnating for the future of their counties.

Now this notion that a peace deal is possible, the only one I see is Donbas to Russia, crimea to Ukraine, and Ukraine in the EU and nato.

It seems pretty fair, but Putin and Russia are such shitbags, they will never accept this deal......so sadly the western armed Ukrainians will have to pound it into them to finally accept this deal or Putin's government collapses....that is why atacms and f16s should already be on their way to Ukraine. 

More combat power means quicker end to the war and more lives saved on both sides.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 19, 2023, 11:34:09 AM
Quote from: Skoop on September 19, 2023, 11:12:36 AMWent down the rabbit hole and watched a ton of zeihan.  Demographically, neither side should be fighting this war, the inverted pyramid of population bubbles they live in can't afford any working age 20 year olds to die, they need to be working and impregnating for the future of their counties.

Now this notion that a peace deal is possible, the only one I see is Donbas to Russia, crimea to Ukraine, and Ukraine in the EU and nato.

It seems pretty fair, but Putin and Russia are such shitbags, they will never accept this deal......so sadly the western armed Ukrainians will have to pound it into them to finally accept this deal or Putin's government collapses....that is why atacms and f16s should already be on their way to Ukraine. 

More combat power means quicker end to the war and more lives saved on both sides.
+1 on Zeihan. I have a team and a factory in China. Seeing some interesting things on demographics and for the first time folks in China afraid of listing their jobs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 11:34:20 AM
todays disinformation attempt from russia.
the released video:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1704157972937498935

except that this is what the airfield looks like today:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6ZlfGlWAAAvsXX?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 11:53:11 AM
its a good thing theyre so fucking stupid.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1704141933734425047
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2023, 02:44:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 02:23:25 AMfor what its worth Ive now read on several sub threads that these engines can be tweaked to go 75+ mph on paved roads.   :tanker:
and while this doesn't surprise me, its a totally different thing to actually see.
how often does one see 63 tons moving that fast?

Watching that tank catch up on the road, without even needing to shed its treads, would warm the cockles of Stalin's long-dead heart.  :Nerd:

At least until he realized it's German.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 19, 2023, 02:48:31 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 10:09:48 AMprobably they arent allowed to retreat.  and if they did fall back that helps further stick russians to Bakmut.

I've heard blocking squads have been around since last year (to keep assaults going forward, and also to stiffen against retreats), but I don't recall reading or hearing about any action from them. Probably a lapse of my memory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 19, 2023, 03:05:00 PM
They used them in the assault on Bakhmut. Lots of Drone footage of them in action. Russia is truly a nation devoid of humanity and respect for human life.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 19, 2023, 07:41:09 PM
Watching that video of the Lep2, I was really disappointed in the tank driver.  When he changed lanes, he didn't use his turn indicator light.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2023, 07:59:26 PM
pretty sure there was no oncoming traffic.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 19, 2023, 10:10:09 PM
I think I saw him use a hand-signal Sooner. You probably already know which one. Not this one... :peace:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 20, 2023, 01:43:34 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on September 19, 2023, 07:41:09 PMWatching that video of the Lep2, I was really disappointed in the tank driver.  When he changed lanes, he didn't use his turn indicator light.

It is so annoying how pretty much all the drivers with expensive German vehicles behave like they own the road  :tickedoff:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2023, 06:57:06 AM
great moral

https://twitter.com/i/status/1704451010591121599
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2023, 10:13:16 AM
fun perspective

https://twitter.com/i/status/1704499178397663377
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 20, 2023, 12:27:50 PM
A new article from Lawrence Freedman, where he ponders if Russia's invasion is in a stalemate, and what a stale mate actually is all about. Zugzwang, now there's a chess term I was not aware of.

I quite enjoy his writing, so it was again.

https://samf.substack.com/p/stalemate-zugzwang-and-a-long-middle
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2023, 02:08:58 PM
great find Cross!  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 20, 2023, 05:53:33 PM
Zugzwang!!  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2023, 05:58:10 PM
in case my position wasn't clear.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6gC9eQXgAACFt8?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 20, 2023, 06:00:12 PM
^That definitely helps.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 20, 2023, 07:45:32 PM
well I didn't want to risk being misunderstood.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 20, 2023, 09:01:17 PM
Mission accomplished  :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 21, 2023, 08:09:24 AM
Polish / Ukraine dispute over grain getting serious.  Poland says it will stop sending weapons to Ukraine over the dispute.

I hope that with all of those well-paid bureaucrats in the EU, somebody will figure out how to resolve this intra-European trade dispute. Anyway, the headline is bound to spice up Putin's day...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/poland-to-stop-sending-weapons-to-ukraine-over-grain-fight/ar-AA1h2Srf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9ac561ac902347f0a9dc9eb3b646d7d1&ei=13 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/poland-to-stop-sending-weapons-to-ukraine-over-grain-fight/ar-AA1h2Srf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9ac561ac902347f0a9dc9eb3b646d7d1&ei=13)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 21, 2023, 08:10:05 AM
^Ugh not good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 08:29:51 AM
not to worried as this is mostly about Polish elections.  Duda and Zelensky were in meetings about this yesterday and today the "Ukraine and Poland agreed to find a joint solution regarding the export of grain. This became known as a result of the conversation between the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, Mykola Solskyi, and his Polish colleague, Robert Telus."
trying to find the direct link to this comment.
theres also the idea that Poland doesn't have that much more to give in the way of military equipment.
as per the Economist:
"But on September 20th its prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, said that his country was no longer supplying weapons to its neighbour, and would focus on rearming itself with modern kit. It is unclear whether Mr Morawiecki's comments amounted to a change in policy: Poland has already sent Ukraine much of its stock of Soviet-era weaponry, including tanks and jets, and the transit of Western aid and arms to Ukraine, of which around 90% goes through Poland, will continue unobstructed."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 08:35:48 AM
so the EU just being the EU:

https://www.ft.com/content/1e6a310a-195d-482a-924c-066ca874250d
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 08:57:35 AM
also from FT:


   Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
   https://www.ft.com/content/0a4a460b-744c-4bcf-943a-2ed852718fef

   "We provided so much equipment at the beginning of the war, when we wanted to be the second-biggest helper after the US, that we're now in any case limited in terms of providing much more," said former Polish general Jarosław Stróżyk, who is assistant professor of international relations at the University of Wrocław. "We're in the middle of an election campaign and all these comments are unfortunate, also because Poland transfers so much military equipment to Ukraine from other nations . . . It shows we did not solve some strategic questions and tensions with Ukraine at the start of the war, about other historical, political and economic differences."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 09:08:28 AM
this is about as close as you can get.
ffs the tweet exists.  its a T64 hitting a T90 from across a tree line.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1704579313092210939
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 21, 2023, 10:14:04 AM
Yeah it is not that unbelievable that some countries are now running low on weapons. Probably should not be letting the world and the Russians know that, though.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 12:43:01 PM
its the soviet era stuff Poland is running low on and Ukraine is moving to NATO standard anyway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 21, 2023, 01:13:03 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 09:08:28 AMthis is about as close as you can get.
ffs the tweet exists.  its a T64 hitting a T90 from across a tree line.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1704579313092210939
I can't see it but could be because I don't have a Twitter/X account.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 21, 2023, 03:24:29 PM
I'll stick take Poland over Russia in a hearbeat, but I do wonder whether Poland might be turning into a bit of a loose cannon within the NATO alliance.  Its domestic politics are... volatile and not always aligned with traditional Western values. 

And, if Russia is reduced to Chinese vassal status in the next 20 years, Poland seems the most likely actor to move into that power vacuum.  Their military build-up has already been dramatic.

I'm NOT saying we need to chuck Poland.  But, if we're thinking longer-term than just getting Russia defanged, we can't assume that the "enemy of my enemy" status that's kept Poland firmly aligned with the rest of NATO for the last quarter-century will automatically persist.

The biggest challenge with democratic allies is that their governments keep changing!   :martini:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 03:57:45 PM
this row is more about their election next month then any real issues with Ukraine.
at least thats my take on it from the reading I've done.
Duda's speech yesterday was pretty good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 04:06:16 PM
now it works

https://twitter.com/i/status/1704631207651111422
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 21, 2023, 05:08:16 PM
Thanks for following through on this one Star.

Amazing that the UAF tank got so close. I am wondering if it was because they had trouble spotting too, or they came up from behind?

Speaks to the value of having infantry support to be a bit like trip wire notification that something's amiss. (although with the Russkiy morale being so shitty I would not be surprised if they would just run away like Cerebus is chasing them).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 05:13:37 PM
theres some debate if that was recent or from last summer and as to whether its a T90 export or a T72.

and now.... Maxims.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1704630189668311479
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 05:19:30 PM
some interesting stuff going down around Verbove and UkAF drone strikes in Crimea.
I hate the info lag.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 21, 2023, 05:28:28 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 05:19:30 PMsome interesting stuff going down around Verbove and UkAF drone strikes in Crimea.
I hate the info lag.

I also appreciate you sifting through all the bits.

I did catch some intel saying there are sizeable parts of the Ruskie lines now that are not getting regularly supplied.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 05:35:48 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1704620018569531469
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 05:36:40 PM
this was a russian counter attack, and no it isn't a T-10.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1704916935123591375
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 21, 2023, 07:31:26 PM
^That video was surreal.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on September 21, 2023, 07:45:54 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 05:35:48 PMhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1704620018569531469
first- Hats off to anyone who can identify anything - my tired old eyes just see blurry pixels - it could be tiger tanks and elephants for all I could tell facing off here.
Second music choice reminds me of the Sadukur chants in Dune
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 08:45:36 PM
the full threads had close up stills from drones before the hits.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 21, 2023, 11:10:40 PM
waiting for a thread spool thingy but this was the salient post:

QuoteIt also indicates that Ukrainian forces have suppressed Russian artillery and other anti-tank systems in the area enough to bring their vehicles forward and have them survive.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6i42kjWAAASb1G?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 22, 2023, 10:36:56 AM
Looks to me in one part of the Stryker video that a vehicle overturned on it's side... infantry dismounted from it.

Also, holy crap, the soil/dust raised with some of the shots...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 10:42:27 AM
lets get this party started!   :Party:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-atacms-biden-zelenskyy-long-range-missile-rcna116876

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6o2hycX0AAMrfD?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 22, 2023, 11:15:29 AM
Glad to hear it! 

I understand the US' trepidation to move aggressively in the opening weeks of the war, in terms of both worries about antagonizing a nuclear superpower and in terms of wanting to retain some bargaining chips for later use.  But given all the rapid escalations coming out of Russia (rhetoric, atrocities, aggressive targeting of civilian infrastructure, annexations, etc.), I haven't understood our reticence nearly as much for the last 12 months or so.

OTOH, it is nice to see the British and the French show some leadership by issuing SCALPs and Storm Shadows first.  It's nice not to have to lead the pack every time, especially in a struggle where the European NATO powers have so much (more) skin in the game.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 11:28:03 AM
dont forget the Swedish donation of one baby Godzilla

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6oqROqW4AAqUOH?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 22, 2023, 12:03:26 PM
Do not underestimate atomic laser breath
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 12:45:07 PM
 :RockOn:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1705272408620277986
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 22, 2023, 12:51:45 PM
Well now.....  :cool:

and reports coming in of breaches to the last defensive line in Zaporizhia Oblast....

the cookie may finally be crumbling.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 01:16:27 PM
 :beermug[1]:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 01:35:04 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6pKIgxX0Acc6Xt?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 01:36:46 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6pf6ymWcAA7J4H?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 02:14:47 PM
russias Black Sea fleet HQ got smacked by some Storm Shadows today.
supposedly during a command meeting.   :evil:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6owaJAXoAAvNrB?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 02:15:33 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1705232912193368312
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 02:16:51 PM
on the heels of Canada's largest ever aid package to anyone.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1705258339775479887
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 02:28:57 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1704955657084895505
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on September 22, 2023, 06:55:27 PM
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1705290312426377302
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 08:29:25 PM
laughs in Budanov  :ninja1:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/exclusive-interview-with-ukraines-spy-boss-from-his-dc-hotel-room
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 08:48:26 PM
(https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2023/09/21/AP23263696822779-scaled.jpg?auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=70&width=1440)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2023, 11:00:49 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1705233881761194107
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2023, 03:24:09 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1705652471991799948
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2023, 05:53:04 PM
russian vdv ready for another mission

https://twitter.com/i/status/1705682141281931274
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2023, 06:16:46 PM
Black Sea Fleet HQ 1944.
whats old is new again.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6vpG_1XUAAqPHv?format=png&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 23, 2023, 07:50:17 PM
The clip with the horn is awesome.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 23, 2023, 09:04:36 PM
Interesting commentary from one Ukrainian general:  https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html

This suggests what a number of people here have been saying.  The Ukrainians are fighting the war their way.  Right or wrong, we'll only know with the benefit of hindsight. 

At the moment, that way seems to be trying to spill 2 drops of Russian blood for every drop of Ukrainian blood that is spilt, with the hope that the Russians will run out of blood first.  While I understand the mentality, I worry that even the best case scenario there will involve the loss of hundreds of thousands more lives (many of them Ukrainian).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 23, 2023, 09:59:30 PM
The Russians will never run out of blood first.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2023, 10:29:45 PM
you might be surprised.  I've gone over the demographics enough already and it's a fair bit more then 2 for 1 drops of blood.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 23, 2023, 10:30:02 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 23, 2023, 09:59:30 PMThe Russians will never run out of blood first.

Never is a strong word.  Russia's population after losing its client states like Ukraine is a fraction if what it was in the days of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union. 

That population is also demographically older and has one of the lowest manpower pools in the history of the nation since the days of the Kievan Rus. 

Part of why Russian adventurism is a thing right now is to try to solve its population crisis.  It actually a of today has a population not much greater than Japan, and far less combat effective portions of its population that could be brought to bear than Japan does.  That's nuts when you compare it to an Island Nation. 

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 23, 2023, 10:46:21 PM
^All that being said...the Russian government will usher in nuclear Armageddon before being beaten by Ukraine on the battlefield.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2023, 11:15:01 PM
jfc not this again.....  :hair:

its like you ask questions or post worries and it gets covered and 3 months later you forget it all.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2023, 11:30:07 PM
its gonna be all right Gus.  :Hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on September 24, 2023, 02:22:01 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 23, 2023, 10:46:21 PM^All that being said...the Russian government will usher in nuclear Armageddon before being beaten by Ukraine on the battlefield.

dont worry,
There are too many super rich, rich, and semi-rich people around in Russia who want to keep their good lives (style) and dont throw it all away for a 70-year-old, poissible ill, leader who cant swallow his pride witnessing losing the Cold War. Those people know that at the end of the day, it's all about trade and making money. Sure, the West likes to dominate Russia in its role as a former imperial superpower, but the West will never threaten Russia existence or borders and like to have the mass of ordinary Russian people as a market, customers and trade partners.



 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2023, 09:59:22 AM
russias down to using ship mounted anti submarine rockets on mt-lbs....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6y8VSfXIAAyKuw?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on September 24, 2023, 11:10:59 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 23, 2023, 11:15:01 PMjfc not this again.....  :hair:

its like you ask questions or post worries and it gets covered and 3 months later you forget it all.

Not sure if this is addressed at Gus' concerns about global thermonuclear war or my earlier post above.  If the latter, I'd suggest that you're confusing your own extensively researched opinions with incontrovertible facts.

MikeGER, I hear what you're saying.  It all sounds very reasonable, and I even agree with you.  HOWEVER, I've found that the Russian people or elites acting in a way that is reasonable has been unheard of in the last 19 months.

I sure hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2023, 11:12:41 AM
that was for Gus.
as for your post, the amount of loss the Ukrainians are willing to accept for victory if for them to decide.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 24, 2023, 12:25:35 PM
Just because 'things get covered' doesn't mean that they don't change, again. Nothing about the last year and a half in Ukraine has been predictable or expected. Is it really out of the realm of possibility that during this war and the ensuing chaos that one or two Russian nukes gets 'lost' or 'unhinged'?

I love that you post the 'hair-pulling' smiley since you too have been so easy to deal with over the years, Star  :cool: 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 24, 2023, 12:29:08 PM
And meanwhile, in Kosovo...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66905091
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2023, 01:01:27 PM
nothing will change about russian oligarchs wanting to keep their wealth and stay alive.
as for 1 or 2 getting lost, we'll do the same thing we did in the 90's and buy them from whoever has them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 24, 2023, 01:15:29 PM
Sure, it's just that simple. You'll have to forgive me for not having as much faith.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2023, 01:17:15 PM
oh its not simple at all but the end result will be the same.
this isn't western intelligence services first rodeo.

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS6MbTQ2HBSgcUI2yU41cVR24rU-3WJdr4W2ufivUcgus_a4rFKQ5NtOptz3B0tdSTd5zs&usqp=CAU)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 24, 2023, 01:19:04 PM
For you, I will try to have faith. Can I call you George Michael...just for day?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2023, 07:11:34 PM
 :shocked:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1706087105426837821
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2023, 07:32:55 PM
while playing blue whos won this as a wargamer?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F60pG_0WgAAOYsO?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 24, 2023, 07:47:16 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2023, 07:32:55 PMwhile playing blue whos won this as a wargamer?

Blue but understanding that's a hard road to follow. 

The fall of the Surovikin Line is significant and it took a while and a lot of resources, but it's significant to be sure. 

I saw a few interviews with Ukrainian Generals asking what's next, would there now be an exploiting of the situation before the muddy season and the general response from them was "No".

The UAF intention is to continue as they were.  They don't intend to halt the campaigning season at October and will press in the mud, with infantry and dispersed as they have been.  The Russians are fighting the same way and now that they're past the deepest works they intend to keep doing what got them there.

They also don't want to abandon their pushes in Bakhmut, especially after the disaster that the Russians put themselves in at Andriivka.

As as has been said there, Ukraine is going to fight the war their way. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 25, 2023, 02:26:25 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2023, 07:11:34 PM:shocked:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1706087105426837821

Saw this too. Utter madness :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 25, 2023, 08:04:20 AM
Interesting discussion of Ukrainian upgrade to Challenger armor.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-challenger-2-tank-has-a-lot-of-armor-the-ukrainians-added-more/ar-AA1hcIUM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b1424b3cffba412f82b63054dbd2c571&ei=11 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-challenger-2-tank-has-a-lot-of-armor-the-ukrainians-added-more/ar-AA1hcIUM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b1424b3cffba412f82b63054dbd2c571&ei=11)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2023, 09:33:01 AM
 :ThumbsUp:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1706052386437865808
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on September 25, 2023, 09:46:51 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 24, 2023, 07:47:16 PMAs as has been said there, Ukraine is going to fight the war their way. 

Nations tend to use tactics/strategy gleaned from lessons learned from their last war. Winners tend to learn far less than the losers. It looks like the Ukraine is applying the lessons from their defeat last go round with the ruskies.

Ukraine will do alright. From what we are seeing I'd say they are intent on not just getting their country back, but also to bloody Russia so bad it will hesitate to ever do this again against the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 25, 2023, 10:35:04 AM
That Downfall parody is hilarious.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2023, 11:11:10 AM
more so if you know the people being named.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2023, 11:12:31 AM
so, about all of those russian dragons teeth.....
pretty sure they work better when they're solid.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F63TZ3wWIAAU13B?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2023, 11:30:34 AM
and some russian decoys that really dont work.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1706316432047272074
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 25, 2023, 11:40:45 AM
Those dragon's teeth match the rest of the Russian defense...hollowed out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on September 25, 2023, 11:54:29 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 25, 2023, 11:40:45 AMThose dragon's teeth match the rest of the Russian defense...hollowed out.

This is a photo taken in December 2022 (frost is visible).  Could be worse now.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1600151315371347968
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 25, 2023, 12:14:00 PM
^Hopefully  :magnify:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 25, 2023, 12:59:37 PM
Dragon's teeth are too heavy if they're solid! :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 25, 2023, 01:12:38 PM
They're hollow in order to stuff them with bodies.  :HideEyes:

......I can't even tell if I meant that as a joke anymore. This war, man.

Meanwhile: Khorne group!? That is just begging for some Warhammer memes! (Or maybe WH fans named the group?)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 25, 2023, 01:21:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 24, 2023, 07:32:55 PMwhile playing blue whos won this as a wargamer?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F60pG_0WgAAOYsO?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

Well, I'd try taking that armor brigade south of Novoselivka, roll it south to meet the mechanized infantry brigade and infantry... company or regiment, can't tell if that's an off-center I with a map mark next to it, or a II with fainter right number (maybe it's a half-company  :HideEyes: )...

...anyway, those two elements, and then see if I could roll up the red line south of Novoprokovkha.

First up, a red VDV brigade and motorized infantry battalion. Fix them and flank them with the blue mech infantry to the west. Prep with arty support if possible.

(This assumes the two blue brigs in reserve are ready to go and aren't shells rebuilding.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 25, 2023, 02:02:28 PM
I don't know the context of this clip from Newsweek (via MSN) -- it cuts off at a suspiciously quick place -- but Newsweek acts like Russia is ready to accept Crimea as Ukrainian under a 1980 treaty...  :huh:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-appears-ready-to-accept-crimea-as-ukraine-s-on-one-condition/vi-AA1hd9DY?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=cea6d8ddb1714184933fa539ec88221c&ei=36

...seems like disengenuously edited clickbait by a formerly respectable news magazine, but can someone provide the missing context?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2023, 02:18:11 PM
Marder takes a hit and everyone lives.  also no fire or turret toss.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1706280610531082690
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 25, 2023, 02:28:53 PM
Ork Smerch gets smushed, video provided by Suchomimus:


Apparently only the second confirmed destruction of a Smerch.

Also, today I learned that the former Soviet military counter-intelligence organization SMERSH (most famous now for early Bond films, but created back in 1942-43, nickname coined by Stalin) means nothing but SMERSH in English (as an acronym for Death To Spies!), but Smerch is Russian for tornado!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 25, 2023, 02:38:15 PM
From yesterday's ISW analysis:

QuoteThe Russian resistance to ceding ground may also be tied to Russian military commanders' and officials' attempts to use the counteroffensive to achieve political goals, or it could result from Putin's micromanagement. A Kremlin insider source claimed that Putin reportedly gave Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu a deadline of one month until early October 2023 to improve the situation on the frontlines, stop Ukrainian counteroffensives, and have Russian forces regain the initiative to launch an offensive operation against a larger city.[32] The insider's claim, if true, may indicate that the Russian military command may be ordering relentless counterattacks in hopes of forcing the Ukrainian counteroffensive to culminate, even at a high cost to Russian military capabilities.  ISW has previously observed instances in which the Russian MoD, fearing the imminent loss of Putin's favor, intensified its efforts to purge commanders who offered honest but negative views and advice and pursued unachievable military objectives at the expense of Russian forces.[33] The Russian MoD, for example, launched an unsuccessful and costly offensive on Vuhledar in February 2023 to undermine the domestic Russian informational effects of the Wagner Group's progress in Bakhmut and maintain favor with Putin.[34] Russian insider sources and milbloggers who have advocated for Teplinsky claimed that Shoigu has been focusing on setting conditions to convince Putin to remove Teplinsky from command – which would likely be achievable if Shoigu is able to achieve Putin's objectives during the counteroffensive.[35] One pro-Teplinsky channel even claimed that Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had already removed Teplinsky from overseeing the defensive operation in southern Ukraine, although ISW cannot confirm the validity of this claim at this time.[36]

Putin: stop their offensive in one month.
Shoigu: {checks Rasputista timing}


More seriously, I continue to maintain that the chief reason the Russians have been defending by counterattack north of Azov Sea, is because they could not and cannot give Ukraine so much access to artillery (and especially short-range) interdiction of the supply artery running through the area into Crimea. But other reasons can also be true.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2023, 03:18:27 PM
russias gonna russia
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 26, 2023, 09:56:02 AM
War on the Rocks with a long article on Ukraine's "Bite and Hold" tactics.

https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/biting-off-what-it-can-chew-ukraine-understands-its-attritional-context/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 26, 2023, 10:06:42 AM
As per Willie OAM's blog yesterday, one of the UAF's big generals, I can't remember which one, told CNN recently that the Counteroffensive would continue through the winter.  :shocked: He said the small unit tactics would allow them to keep attacking and steadily pushing the Russkies back. When they reached Topmak, or however it's spelled, only then would there probably be a real breakthrough to the Sea of Azov. Optimistic or disinformation to throw the Russians off, I don't know? I wonder if the poor bastards in the trenches got this message?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2023, 10:41:56 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1706431697548398765
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2023, 10:42:27 AM
and of course!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F676kXgWgAAFtH2?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2023, 10:43:36 AM
the squad so far

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F69aiHdXAAA244x?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 26, 2023, 11:13:18 AM
Needs a moon in the sky for completion, but otherwise  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2023, 03:47:50 PM
so there was also an incident with a viper today.....   :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6865AlXQAEMXHG?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 26, 2023, 04:43:22 PM
'The Walrus and the Viper: Obvious Capitalist Stooges' by Vlad Putin  :Nerd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 26, 2023, 10:26:14 PM
Come to think of it, weren't those the Nazi Party codenames for Goring and Himmler?  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 27, 2023, 03:55:18 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2023, 03:47:50 PMso there was also an incident with a viper today.....   :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6865AlXQAEMXHG?format=jpg&name=medium)

"Now do this turtle next" :ThumbsUp:

https://twitter.com/JParker_tw/status/1706713019269759122
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2023, 09:07:36 AM
my pleasure!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7BQ4hAbIAAPton?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 27, 2023, 09:42:24 AM
 :ThumbsUp:

https://twitter.com/gnucontrol/status/1706975631555055639
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2023, 12:13:24 PM
wagner Il-76

https://twitter.com/i/status/1706969976085574082

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7CrG0FWIAAY62g?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 27, 2023, 12:25:07 PM
I realize it couldn't be true, but that photo looks like a Russian (i.e. Wagner) support truck drove through the wreckage then after it was clear flipped over on a large piece of debris and wrecked itself.

Then again, Russia is such a homicidal clown show now, I don't know what can't be true.

Quote from: Sir Slash on September 26, 2023, 10:26:14 PMCome to think of it, weren't those the Nazi Party codenames for Goering and Himmler?  :shocked:

Well played.  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on September 27, 2023, 12:50:29 PM
I'm guessing there weren't a lot of survivors.  And it does look like a truck drove through the wreckage and was assimilated.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 27, 2023, 01:15:20 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on September 27, 2023, 12:25:07 PMI realize it couldn't be true, but that photo looks like a Russian (i.e. Wagner) support truck drove through the wreckage then after it was clear flipped over on a large piece of debris and wrecked itself.

Then again, Russia is such a homicidal clown show now, I don't know what can't be true.

Good catch. That is what it looks like.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 27, 2023, 01:56:38 PM
I thought at first that the truck fell out of the airplane but looking closer see that there is barely anything left of the airplane or what was inside it...maybe that truck was fire and rescue? Do Russians even have fire and rescue?

Also maybe the airplane actually hit the truck on its way to destiny?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 27, 2023, 01:57:39 PM
Looking at the video, it looks like the IL-76 never had enough runway, without using a lot of reverse thrust.  Possibly a malfunction of that system?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 27, 2023, 02:20:51 PM
The apparent tracks of the truck, which look freshly dug and do not go beyond the body of the truck, sure look like they went over/thru the ashes of the body, which would mean after the jet had finished burning. Also looks like the same tracks can be seen, a little more faintly, on the opposite side of the fusilage from where that truck ended up.

That would suggest the truck traveled normally into the ashes, then started digging its tracks more deeply on the other side until it flipped -- the tracks stop at that point, where the piece of debris on the tracks lies. (Or the truck tracks go a little farther.)

Now, however, I notice that part of the ash pile looks disturbed on the (photo-)right side of the wreckage, but not enough for the truck to have gone through the ash to clear ground.

That suggests the truck was driving through the ash, hit a piece of big debris, then dragged the debris along (clearing ash and making furrows with the tire tracks now) until the truck flipped over and left the debris behind.

That truck is clearly a story in itself. Maybe a story involving too much vodka or Mali's equivalents thereof.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 27, 2023, 02:28:34 PM
(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BNzJmZjRhZjktZmFkMy00ODMzLThhODktNWUwZmQ0NWRmMTZmXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNDgxNDMwNjY@._V1_.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 27, 2023, 03:13:23 PM
Or NCIS, given the military theme.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on September 27, 2023, 04:24:11 PM
There are a ton of folks talking about how it ends. 

But this one is interesting: RAND analyst predicts Korean War style ending; no negotiated peace but a long-term cease-fire.

Given that both sides aren't going back down...this is a likely scenario IMHO. But I think it is still many months away. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/he-predicted-the-war-here-s-his-take-on-how-it-will-end/ar-AA1hmufy?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e6d6152fdd264098a6d5a27b5faee1b8&ei=9 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/he-predicted-the-war-here-s-his-take-on-how-it-will-end/ar-AA1hmufy?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e6d6152fdd264098a6d5a27b5faee1b8&ei=9)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 27, 2023, 04:32:28 PM
I can't see Ukraine accepting a DMZ that includes chunks of its territory or any major pieces of its land still being part of Russia as long as it has any capability to keep fighting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2023, 05:02:57 PM
or the truck was part of the cargo and got blown clear on a flat trajectory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on September 27, 2023, 05:21:38 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 27, 2023, 04:32:28 PMI can't see Ukraine accepting a DMZ that includes chunks of its territory or any major pieces of its land still being part of Russia as long as it has any capability to keep fighting.

Why not? Russia took Crimea in 2014 and they didn't do anything about it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on September 27, 2023, 05:40:14 PM
^That's because they couldn't do anything about it and Obama didn't do much to help them do much about it.  2014 was a totally different situation compared to today.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 27, 2023, 07:45:59 PM
Definitely a Cease Fire is the only logical way to stop the blood-letting but I can't see either side accepting one at present because they think they can still somehow win. Very similar to the leadership in WWI nations. It'll take another year at least to realize there may not be a military solution to this war. And many more lives. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 27, 2023, 08:31:00 PM
Ukraine has also vowed repeatedly that they will not stop until they have taken back their territory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2023, 08:45:06 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 27, 2023, 05:21:38 PMWhy not? Russia took Crimea in 2014 and they didn't do anything about it.

this isn't then.  and now its Ukraine's call as when to quit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 27, 2023, 10:13:09 PM
Nice of you to offer Star but Trump has Melania so why would he want you?  :grin: Still, it's the thought that counts so...I call it progress.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on September 27, 2023, 10:15:17 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 27, 2023, 08:31:00 PMUkraine has also vowed repeatedly that they will not stop until they have taken back their territory.
The problem with the Korea analogy is that Russia has violated the various Minsk agreements and the Budapest Memorandum.  I don't see Ukraine as trusting Russia enough to have a cease-fire, absent security guarantees, such as membership in NATO with deployment of NATO forces into Ukraine.  This is a condition that I don't think either Russia or NATO will accept.  In contrast, the Korean cease fire has been guaranteed by the deployment of US ground forces, something that is unlikely to happen in the Ukraine.  So I don't see a cease fire.  Rather, I predict a grinding war of attrition, until one side suddenly breaks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 27, 2023, 10:18:20 PM
Good points.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2023, 11:20:52 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 27, 2023, 10:13:09 PMNice of you to offer Star but Trump has Melania so why would he want you?  :grin: Still, it's the thought that counts so...I call it progress.

wat  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on September 28, 2023, 07:26:42 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on September 27, 2023, 10:15:17 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 27, 2023, 08:31:00 PMUkraine has also vowed repeatedly that they will not stop until they have taken back their territory.
The problem with the Korea analogy is that Russia has violated the various Minsk agreements and the Budapest Memorandum.  I don't see Ukraine as trusting Russia enough to have a cease-fire, absent security guarantees, such as membership in NATO with deployment of NATO forces into Ukraine.  This is a condition that I don't think either Russia or NATO will accept.  In contrast, the Korean cease fire has been guaranteed by the deployment of US ground forces, something that is unlikely to happen in the Ukraine.  So I don't see a cease fire.  Rather, I predict a grinding war of attrition, until one side suddenly breaks.

That's plausible.  The only possible other way out is suggested by the (now defunct) grain deal brokered by the UN in 2022.  I suspect both sides would be happy with a big DMZ covering the Black Sea and its contested coastlines, as would Turkey and Romania and Moldova and probably Belarus and Poland as well (even without coastlines, I suspect everybody around there would like to turn down the heat a bit).  This would work better after Putin is gone and people would like to sort of rehabilitate Russia and the UN ( which have both looked really bad lately in this context).  Still, war to exhaustion seems a lot more likely at this point, the one wild card still being Belarus as usual.  If something messy happens with Belarus, things could go sideways for the whole region pretty fast.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 28, 2023, 08:45:59 AM
^From your description, Meng, it sounds even more complicated now. A DMZ involving an ocean and 8-10 different countries? Ugh.  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 28, 2023, 09:53:09 AM
I was referring to your sig lines at the bottom of your post, the 4th line particularly Star.                                                                         Trip's point about the Peacekeepers for Korea are good ones because how many would it take to police a cease fire in this war? And who would be stupid enough to get between these two armies to perform it? Still, if both sides were convinced it would benefit themselves more than the other side, I could see a Third Party talk them into it. Would it last and who would cheat? Not much hope there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 28, 2023, 10:01:09 AM
Is Russia fascist? The answer seems pretty obvious to me, but not to everyone. Great video:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on September 28, 2023, 11:39:55 AM
Oh hey, haven't watched K&Gs in a while! Thanks for the reminder they exist; I should subscribe to them this time to keep up.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 28, 2023, 12:27:50 PM
^A lot of their videos can get samey after a while but this one was good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 28, 2023, 12:38:43 PM
I like them too.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2023, 02:12:58 PM
and people say Israel isn't helping...   :ninjameditate:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1707414310643732742
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2023, 02:18:21 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1707314236588785951
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 28, 2023, 02:46:40 PM
DPICM  the grid square remover.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1707468759684780452
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 29, 2023, 01:04:48 PM
 :hair:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7MhUF6XAAA7q77?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 29, 2023, 01:08:17 PM
Don't worry, the West will step in and stop the genocide just like in the Balkans in the 1990s...oh wait.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 29, 2023, 01:25:12 PM
thats the great thing here.
we DON"T have to step in, just arm Ukraine and let them do what they're doing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 29, 2023, 01:59:18 PM
I think we have been arming them and it hasn't stopped yet has it? Whatta you think, maybe in another couple of years?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 29, 2023, 02:04:25 PM
maybe give them what they say they need and stop slow walking systems that they end up getting anyway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 29, 2023, 09:34:34 PM
The West should shit or get off the pot here. A war worth fighting is a war worth winning. Are we in it to win it... or just Virtue-Signaling to the whole world?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 29, 2023, 10:50:04 PM
oh we're well past virtue signaling.  the catch as I see it is that this administration has been wary of pushing russia to far into the corner.  I stand by everything I've said about how and way they won't use them but its still a card on the table.  if it was me making the calls they would have Apaches and Strike Eagles already.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 29, 2023, 10:51:40 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 29, 2023, 01:59:18 PMI think we have been arming them and it hasn't stopped yet has it? Whatta you think, maybe in another couple of years?

I would also posit that this isn't an open desert with air supremacy.  we can be spoiled with the reality of how good our military is.  maybe you should read more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 30, 2023, 01:43:31 AM
Skipping the first paragraph which is about politics, here's a rather neat article putting together an argument there is in fact a strategy within the collective West with supporting Ukraine to defend herself against this most brutal of invasions.

There's the reminder as well that there's no need for an exit strategy, as it is not us but Ukraine whose feet on the ground.

Also, I agree with Star that it's been painful observing the glacial speed in decision making with some weapons systems. I understand the arguments behind them, in the beginning of the war especially. But to see it still continuing, weapons system after next system, finally agreeing to send them after delays, well, there it is. I am in the camp that sees that what actually provokes Putin, what provokes Russia, is showing weakness. What always provoked him/them to action was appeasement, signs of weakness.

"Keep Calm And Support Ukraine More"

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/we-already-have-a-strategy-in-aiding-ukraine/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 30, 2023, 01:55:11 AM
As an European it has been heartening to witness though that for once the collective EU is carrying some of the weight also when it comes to direct military aid, not just financial aid.

Spotted this the other day. We had some 300 of these at the peak of its use, the Cold War standard for Finnish Defence Forces was to procure one third of its equipment from West, East, and nationally.

I served with Marines Artillery in eighties, it is a proper beast, heavy and cumbersome, a proper PITA to manhandle around. Once in position, a most accurate weapon with a long range. Perfect for counter battery as well.

They were decommissioned for scrapping a good few years ago, not because of the tubes would have been worn out, but the ammo stock was aging and would have needed a renewal. And the amount of ammo in stock must have been massive as it was basically a war time stock procured, as it was not expected to be able to receive them if things went south.

Seems instead of scrap metal they, and the ammo, ended up in Ukraine. Amounts, no idea. I am hoping for the full 300. With the ammo. Use them wisely.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1707353673750229261


Edit here's the gun in conscript use. First and last round of a fire mission fired in unison. Once in position, a most easy and stable system.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on September 30, 2023, 03:33:41 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 30, 2023, 01:43:31 AMSkipping the first paragraph which is about politics, here's a rather neat article putting together an argument there is in fact a strategy within the collective West with supporting Ukraine to defend herself against this most brutal of invasions.

Thereä's the reminder as well that there's no need for an exit strategy, as it is not us but Ukraine whose feet on the ground.

Also, I agree with Star that it's been painful observing the glacial speed in decision making with some weapons systems. I understand the arguments behind them, in the beginning of the war especially. But to see it still continuing, weapons system after next system, finally agreeing to send them after delays, well, there it is. I am in the camp that sees that what actually provokes Putin, what provokes Russia, is showing weakness. What always provoked him/them to action was appeasement, signs of weakness.

"Keep Calm And Support Ukraine More"

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/we-already-have-a-strategy-in-aiding-ukraine/
ALL of this.

Putin, as with every dictator, takes advantage of weakness. They love it. Thrive on it. It's their power source. Crimea was the line that should not have been crossed. He saw the weakness in the West and since then, he's been planning to take the rest of Ukraine. In 2014 Russia gambled the west would sit on it's arse and do fuck all - and that's what happened. Power boost.

Fast forward to today...absolutely there should be no exit strategy from the west. This is Ukrainian blood being spilled. At the very least we should give them the means to defend themselves if we're not actually going to assist with boots on the ground.

Fuck Putin
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on September 30, 2023, 03:35:32 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on September 30, 2023, 01:55:11 AMAs an European it has been heartening to witness though that for once the collective EU is carrying some of the weight also when it comes to direct military aid, not just financial aid.

Spotted this the other day. We had some 300 of these at the peak of its use, the Cold War standard for Finnish Defence Forces was to procure one third of its equipment from West, East, and nationally.

I served with Marines Artillery in eighties, it is a proper beast, heavy and cumbersome, a proper PITA to manhandle around. Once in position, a most accurate weapon with a long range. Perfect for counter battery as well.

They were decommissioned for scrapping a good few years ago, not because of the tubes would have been worn out, but the ammo stock was aging and would have needed a renewal. And the amount of ammo in stock must have been massive as it was basically a war time stock procured, as it was not expected to be able to receive them if things went south.

Seems instead of scrap metal they, and the ammo, ended up in Ukraine. Amounts, no idea. I am hoping for the full 300. With the ammo. Use them wisely.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1707353673750229261


Edit here's the gun in conscript use. First and last round of a fire mission fired in unison. Once in position, a most easy and stable system.

Agreed on Europe stepping up - but there's more to be done. Much more.

What is the reasoning behind sticking the used casings in the ground and what is that guy wrestlelling with with that first upturned shell casing?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on September 30, 2023, 08:55:32 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on September 30, 2023, 03:35:32 AMAgreed on Europe stepping up - but there's more to be done. Much more.

Absolutely.

QuoteWhat is the reasoning behind sticking the used casings in the ground and what is that guy wrestlelling with with that first upturned shell casing?

The M-46 ammo comes in two parts despite the cartridge look of the casing. Used ones are upturned to make sure they don't get mixed with live ones.

While there's no danger per se for some reason loading an empty cartridge into the gun, there's a lot of hassle and safety measures if a live round does not detonate the charge. Basically it messes up the whole battery mission during peacetime training.

As for the guy he's removing the detonator cap as that's done before the casings are recycled. Why it takes that long, or why he does it during the mission, I don't know. Maybe he's just slacking off  :knuppel2:   (edit: oh yeah, while it's still hot. He's slacking off though :) )

(My English probably failed me regarding the correct terms)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on September 30, 2023, 09:40:50 AM
I agree with JD, the weakness of the response to the Crimea take-over encouraged Putin back in '14 and I would also add the Afghan withdrawal also causing Vlad to believe it was finally Christmas morning and time to open all his presents at once. Along with the cave to the Russian gas pipeline. Like most dictators, he over estimated his own brilliance and invincibility and now is stuck in a war his, 'Yes-Men' can't seem to figure a way to win. He's in a hole. Does he keep digging or find a way to climb out?

All due respect Star, but I don't need you to tell me what to do in my life. With your record of being off-target on your predictions here, I would be more inclined to listen to Daffy Duck.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 30, 2023, 01:45:10 PM
I await your examples.  I can think of a few things but I'd like to see you list.
and you most definitely listen to Daffy Duck.   :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 30, 2023, 03:03:27 PM
Putin yesterday enshrined September 30 as the new official "Day of Reunification" commemorating the annexation of Russian contested territories in Ukraine. 

The goal of the holiday isn't just to celebrate the return of the Ukrainian oblasts to Russian control, but to embrace the new hopeful future of Russia, committing itself to the end of the old Soviet Union's concept of socialist republics, and embracing the future of restoring the pre-1917 borders of the Russian Empire.

Russian state Propagandist Sergey Mardan celebrated the news on national TV, doubling down on the idea that the Russian state sees the war for a cause of celebration and is just the beginning of the rebirth of the Empire.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 30, 2023, 03:23:38 PM
Great. I'm gonna search for an online map of what Putin wants his newly restored empire to look like.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 30, 2023, 03:24:57 PM
the RT videos I've seen via Julia Davis posts are creepy as fuck.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 30, 2023, 03:25:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 30, 2023, 03:23:38 PMGreat. I'm gonna search for an online map of what Putin wants his newly restored empire to look like.

the Baltics, Poland, Finland, Moldova yada yada.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 30, 2023, 03:29:45 PM
^Pretty much like this.

(https://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/russian-tsarist-empire-pre-wwi-450w.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 30, 2023, 03:37:26 PM
but 5 of those countries are now NATO so I don't think that would work out for russia to well.
I'll let Slash do the fact checking on that.   :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 30, 2023, 03:43:47 PM
This is [darkly] fascinating "committing itself to the end of the old Soviet Union's concept of socialist republics, and embracing the future of restoring the pre-1917 borders of the Russian Empire."

So according to Putin, 1917-1991 was a series of horrible mistakes - except for crushing Germany?

It all went to hell when the Romanovs were murdered? I've seen it posted and discussed here for 18 months and still can't believe it. Especially since Putin was as much a USSR creation as you can get.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 30, 2023, 04:00:20 PM
not what Ive been looking for but typical of russian domestic propaganda.
fact checked by Daffy Duck.   :cool:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1707367203945779346
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 30, 2023, 04:03:41 PM
here we go:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 30, 2023, 04:09:52 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 30, 2023, 03:43:47 PMThis is [darkly] fascinating "committing itself to the end of the old Soviet Union's concept of socialist republics, and embracing the future of restoring the pre-1917 borders of the Russian Empire."

So according to Putin, 1917-1991 was a series of horrible mistakes - except for crushing Germany?

It all went to hell when the Romanovs were murdered? I've seen it posted and discussed here for 18 months and still can't believe it. Especially since Putin was as much a USSR creation as you can get.

To the Russian Nationalists, the great mistake was the loss of Russian identity in favor of the idea of Soviet Socialism.  It was the concept that places like Ukraine, Belarus ect had individual national identities and were not part of the greater Russia as the Empire had held to. 

It's a neo-Fascist movement and has all the hallmarks.  It rejects Liberal Democracy as a failure, and rejects Socialism as the incorrect solution.  It harkens to the old days of National Imperial identity without embracing the trappings of monarchy.  It asks the nation to remember the good old days of the power, respect and huge national borders, and to replace the idea of worship of the monarchs or worship of the populace with the worship of the state and military.

It's not at all dissimilar from what happened in Germany and Italy.  Don't forget Mussolini started out a Marxist revolutionary and largely was made by them too, he just ended up rejecting their ideology for the same reason Putin now rejects the Soviet ideal.    Even Hitler did something similar with his alliance with Rohm and Strasser and brief adoption of some populist socialist planks until he purged them after the Night of the Long Knives.

They're all similar cycles repeating themselves with the same results.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on September 30, 2023, 05:47:41 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on September 30, 2023, 04:09:52 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 30, 2023, 03:43:47 PMThis is [darkly] fascinating "committing itself to the end of the old Soviet Union's concept of socialist republics, and embracing the future of restoring the pre-1917 borders of the Russian Empire."

So according to Putin, 1917-1991 was a series of horrible mistakes - except for crushing Germany?

It all went to hell when the Romanovs were murdered? I've seen it posted and discussed here for 18 months and still can't believe it. Especially since Putin was as much a USSR creation as you can get.

To the Russian Nationalists, the great mistake was the loss of Russian identity in favor of the idea of Soviet Socialism.  It was the concept that places like Ukraine, Belarus ect had individual national identities and were not part of the greater Russia as the Empire had held to. 

It's a neo-Fascist movement and has all the hallmarks.  It rejects Liberal Democracy as a failure, and rejects Socialism as the incorrect solution.  It harkens to the old days of National Imperial identity without embracing the trappings of monarchy.  It asks the nation to remember the good old days of the power, respect and huge national borders, and to replace the idea of worship of the monarchs or worship of the populace with the worship of the state and military.

It's not at all dissimilar from what happened in Germany and Italy.  Don't forget Mussolini started out a Marxist revolutionary and largely was made by them too, he just ended up rejecting their ideology for the same reason Putin now rejects the Soviet ideal.    Even Hitler did something similar with his alliance with Rohm and Strasser and brief adoption of some populist socialist planks until he purged them after the Night of the Long Knives.

They're all similar cycles repeating themselves with the same results.

This has Aleksandr Dugin written all over it. Dugin's book Foundations of Geopolitics is Putin's playbook.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 30, 2023, 05:57:56 PM
Forgive me...people are dying by the 1000s but I find the whole ideology of it so interesting. One of the benefits of my great grandparents being able to escape that part of the world.

Just a few days ago I posted a Warographics video discussing whether Russia was fascist. I personally am convinced that they absolutely are, but the Warographics video was more like 'they will be, soon...not quite there yet.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on September 30, 2023, 06:56:51 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 30, 2023, 05:57:56 PMForgive me...people are dying by the 1000s but I find the whole ideology of it so interesting. One of the benefits of my great grandparents being able to escape that part of the world.

Just a few days ago I posted a Warographics video discussing whether Russia was fascist. I personally am convinced that they absolutely are, but the Warographics video was more like 'they will be, soon...not quite there yet.'

I agreed with some of the points on that video, disagreed with some. 

One particular point on which I did not agree was their assertion that Russian Nationalism has no ideological unifying goal.  I think that Putin's speech on the eve of the Invasion and the rhetoric we've seen from his cronies and the Russian media pretty well puts that to bed. 

I do understand a few other points.  It's enough I would say that the majority of those in power at this point have a fascist ideology but the nation itself is neither capable or far enough down the ideological road to be considered there.

It's like the often repeated idea that any Fascist state must have a mass mobilization for a unifying goal against an enemy.  That's true, and Russia hasn't done so, but the government is leading the nation down that path, continuing to justify NATO and those pesky "stateless cosmopolitans (ie Jews)" in London as the great enemy that will eventually need the entire force of the nation to defeat.

It's also vital to the argument that we view the 30's in hindsight and that each of the Fascist nations differed from each other greatly.  However, they all embraced the term and weren't afraid of it.  It had not become a pariah philosophy yet, and it had many admierers in the west. 

Nowadays any nation, no matter how down the path towards the ideology is, is going to disown the term and deny it if it's levied at them.  No state will fully embrace the name even if it embraces the forms. 

Had the same been said in the 30's we may be debating who was what ideology as Italy, Germany, Spain, Romania, Hungary ect had uniquely nationalistic takes and flavors.  Heck, we still kind of debate it to this day. 

And finally, it's important to understand WHY nations do what they do, so don't apologize about being interested.  This is one of the reasons when I taught in private school I made half my Government curriculum political science.  Understanding the reasons behind things, and more people having those understandings, are vital to avoiding the mistakes of the past. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on September 30, 2023, 07:16:35 PM
All this said, the next major milestone in the story, to me, is what will happen to Belarus and Moldova in the next 2-3 years.

Depending on how battered the Russian military gets, the outlook for Belarus and Moldova is not good.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on September 30, 2023, 07:19:30 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1708265773607620975
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2023, 06:54:48 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1708420907033661492
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 01, 2023, 04:58:38 PM
Well lets see Star. As I recall you told us all the Western Sanctions would bankrupt the Russian Economy back in the first days of the invasion, followed by Putin's cronies overthrowing him shortly after. Later it was after the Russian retreat from Kharkov you said the war was over, the Russians had no more troops to fight with.

When people pointed-out that Putin could always draft more, you told us they wouldn't fight, that they'd all flee out of country. Some of course did but most stayed and fought because they had to. Either that or involuntarily volunteer for Wagner.  :HideEyes:

Just a couple of weeks back you posted the Russian economy was, again, collapsing finally. You've predicted Putin's dying, the Russian Army will, any day now, lay-down their arms and go home, the Russians will run out of arty ammo, their troops can't fight, can't shoot straight and are so dumb they blow themselves up routinely. So how can this bunch of Imperial Stormtroopers even still be an army? And how can there still be tens of thousands of men dying trying to defeat them?

Every new weapons system we've sent Ukraine was supposed to be the one that will finally win this war according to you. And they're still there. I'd say you have been very inaccurate in your predictions. But....you have that right to be. Because we all are allowed to speak our minds freely here.

I've come to know you well enough by now to know you are posting what you WANT to have happen not what you THINK will happen, and you're free to do so. But when others here post what they THINK will happen, not what they WANT to happen, and it disagrees with you, you don't have the right to criticize or mock people because of it. I don't come here to be talked-down to. That's what I got married for. Maybe YOU should read some more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2023, 05:08:59 PM
Interesting statistic on the impact of Armor in this war. 

Even though NATO armor platforms have had very low losses they have also had very low effective deployments. 

Russia is also failing to effectively deploy its most modern armored assets. 

The statistics put some reason to this.  Currently, on both sides tank losses have only been about 4% on Tank vs Tank conflict. 

96% of losses of tanks, combined for both forces, have been to infantry based weapons, artillery and mines. 

And this is interesting.  NATO and the Russians have been creating armored forces that are built for armor on armor conflict.  NATO especially has designed its tanks to go toe to toe with Russia's tanks and win.

The face of this conflict is denying both sides the ability to fight the war the way their platforms were designed to do.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 01, 2023, 05:19:25 PM
^Interesting, I'd like to see the number of tank on tank kills in other relatively modern conflicts.

One that could be comparable, in terms of opposing sides with similar equipment, is the Iran-Iraq War.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2023, 05:39:15 PM
QuoteWell lets see Star. As I recall you told us all the Western Sanctions would bankrupt the Russian Economy back in the first days of the invasion
and they have.

Quotefollowed by Putin's cronies overthrowing him shortly after
I said it was possible and still is.

QuoteWhen people pointed-out that Putin could always draft more, you told us they wouldn't fight
and I've posted many videos of units refusing to fight.  the vast majority of these were conscripts.

Quote. Later it was after the Russian retreat from Kharkov you said the war was over, the Russians had no more troops to fight with
I did not say that at all.  feel free to go find that post and quote it directly.

Quotethey'd all flee out of country.
the brain drain out of russia is a very real thing.  again, articles were posted about this and its been discussed with regards to russian demographics and them moving forward.

QuoteJust a couple of weeks back you posted the Russian economy was, again, collapsing finally.
you mean comments and or articles about the ruble being worth less then a penny?  again, find and quote the post.

QuoteYou've predicted Putin's dying
posting articles commenting on his health isnt my prediction but I cant help but hope.  nor was I the only one bringing this up.

Quotehe Russian Army will, any day now, lay-down their arms and go home
really, once again go find the post and quote me or be more accurate in its context because thats exactly what happened last fall.

Quotehe Russians will run out of arty ammo,
they essentially have.  or do you think asking North Korea for shells is a sigh of functioning domestic production.  articles have been posted about this before but you don't seem to read them.  your ignorance isnt my fault.

Quotetheir troops can't fight, can't shoot straight and are so dumb they blow themselves up routinely.
all of which are true.  did you miss the video of the vatnik throwing a drone out of his foxhole and then shooting it only for said drone to blow up in his face.  or all of the friendly fire episodes that happen.  just this last week russian air defense shot down another of their own Su-35s.

QuoteSo how can this bunch of Imperial Stormtroopers even still be an army?
they mostly aren't which is why they've launched no real offensives of their own.  you really don't pay attention do you?

QuoteAnd how can there still be tens of thousands of men dying trying to defeat them?
oh I dunno, maybe its because its a war.

QuoteEvery new weapons system we've sent Ukraine was supposed to be the one that will finally win this war according to you.
I've said they would be helpful and they have been and Ukraine will eventually win this war.

QuoteI'd say you have been very inaccurate in your predictions.
nope not really.  in fact I'm rather happy with the amount and quality of information I've been able to share here.  its been backed up by articles, videos and professionals commentarty.  is it always 100%? nope (ie putin dying) but it has been a lot more consistent then you claim its been.
one of us is actually researching these topics and reading papers by professionals in this field. 
just to pick a random name, have you even heard of Michael Kofman?
the other one is watching fox.
I've provided more then enough evidence to back up my statements. 
you?

so yes, you should read more.  :Party:








Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2023, 05:57:52 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2023, 05:08:59 PMThe face of this conflict is denying both sides the ability to fight the war the way their platforms were designed to do.

both NATO and russia based their respective concepts on having an air force that would be, at the very least, helping the ground forces.  this obviously hasnt happened for russia in the Ukraine and Ukraine never had an air force to go toe to toe with the russians.  add in perpetual drone surveillance and massing large formations isnt as viable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 01, 2023, 06:13:02 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2023, 05:57:52 PMboth NATO and russia based their respective concepts on having an air force that would be, at the very least, helping the ground forces.  this obviously hasnt happened for russia in the Ukraine and Ukraine never had an air force to go toe to toe with the russians.  add in perpetual drone surveillance and massing large formations isnt as viable.

Very true. This is a conflict that's been utterly devoid of traditional air power. 

However, while air power would diminish the influence of artillery, I do still feel both sides have underestimated the effectiveness of mines and man portable modern anti-tank missile systems.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2023, 06:26:14 PM
I think its the mines more then anything.  somewhere I was reading an article that had the comment that the current density of mine across the southern from is considered impassible by US Army standards.  for localized attacks the atgm can be suppressed by arty.  I have been impressed by western armors ability to take hits.
on that note, we're now fielding Trophy  :RockOn:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2023, 06:26:39 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 01, 2023, 04:58:38 PMthe Russians will run out of arty ammo

https://twitter.com/i/status/1708429978600092106

Daffy Duck approved.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2023, 06:43:43 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 01, 2023, 04:58:38 PMJust a couple of weeks back you posted the Russian economy was, again, collapsing finally.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2023, 07:21:51 PM
because they're so fucking dumb.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/01/a-ukrainian-officers-captured-russian-tank-wasnt-working-so-he-called-tech-support-in-russia/?sh=17103e3813a8
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2023, 07:50:30 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1708536212640710709
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 01, 2023, 09:51:46 PM
I watch most of the blogs from all the sources almost every day and again night. I see a great many that tell a very different story than the one you so often portray. But you never post any of those videos because they don't tell the story the way you want it to be told, so obviously Pro-Ukraine. You have a right to be so but you don't have a right to consider yourself as anything but that, like a source of realist, reliable information. Admit it, you're a cheerleader Star. There's no point to take the largest part of what you post here as anything except for entertainment and one-sided blather. There's no reason you should react so hatefully to that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2023, 11:11:34 PM
I never said I wasn't biased.  in fact I'm unabashedly pro Ukraine.
why is it that you never post links to your information sources?
if you find them so compelling whats the issue with sharing them here?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 07:12:13 AM
Here's a novel concept. It's possible to be pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia and anti-war, all at the same time. I find commentators who are pro-Ukrainian, but anti-war to be the most reliable and legitimate sources of accurate information.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 07:32:09 AM
whos your go to example?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 07:51:00 AM
Willy OAM on youtube is great, for example.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 02, 2023, 12:08:17 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 07:12:13 AMHere's a novel concept. It's possible to be pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia and anti-war, all at the same time. I find commentators who are pro-Ukrainian, but anti-war to be the most reliable and legitimate sources of accurate information.

I'm hoping most people are anti-war (even wargamers).
By this I mean not resorting to war to achieve one's goals.
Unfortunately guys like Putin share the planet with us so we need defensive organizations like NATO, but that doesn't mean being pro-war in my book.  Nor if you do not give in to Putin's unlawful demands.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 02, 2023, 12:20:34 PM
He is also one I watch almost every day and agree he's right down the middle, even though he's been accused repeatedly by pro-Ukrainians as being pro-Russian. But as I've said before, by seeing what the pro-whoever sides are saying you can get a degree of what's really going on. If I posted a link to ANY blogger or site, that's the same as saying I endorse what they are saying, good or bad. And then it'll trigger someone somewhere to call me another bad name. I will let others deal with that.

In the end, none of us truly knows what's happening in Ukraine at any given moment which is why we shouldn't attack others for posting their legitimate beliefs or opinions here.

I would like to think if there were someone who legitimately believed Russia was in the right in this war, they would be given a chance to share that with us, their reasons, facts, and opinions. And be treated respectfully in return. Anybody think that's possible here? Or would they just be shouted-down and then personally insulted via PM's? I hope we're better than that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 02, 2023, 12:27:55 PM
You've been personally insulted in PMs?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 01:06:08 PM
happens to me all the time  :wink:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 01:19:45 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on October 02, 2023, 12:08:17 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 07:12:13 AMHere's a novel concept. It's possible to be pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia and anti-war, all at the same time. I find commentators who are pro-Ukrainian, but anti-war to be the most reliable and legitimate sources of accurate information.

I'm hoping most people are anti-war (even wargamers).
By this I mean not resorting to war to achieve one's goals.
Unfortunately guys like Putin share the planet with us so we need defensive organizations like NATO, but that doesn't mean being pro-war in my book.  Nor if you do not give in to Putin's unlawful demands.

Most average people probably are anti-war, but unfortunately those who are making most of the decisions in the United States are not anti-war...in fact, they are unabashedly pro-war. Both sides of the isle, democrat and republican, for the most part, support prolonging and escalating the war in Ukraine. Despite the broadening ideological divide between the major parties in this country, one of the the few things they continue to have in common is their support for armed conflict around the world. This is because the elected leaders in this country are largely bought off by the same special interests in the military industrial complex that knows no ideology other than the dollar.

This is depressing and cynical, but sadly very true.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 01:45:33 PM
then what are we, the US, supposed to do when things like the Ukraine happen?  or Taiwan?
the worlds far to interconnected to become isolationist.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 02, 2023, 01:53:04 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 01:19:45 PM
Quote from: Pete Dero on October 02, 2023, 12:08:17 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 07:12:13 AMHere's a novel concept. It's possible to be pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia and anti-war, all at the same time. I find commentators who are pro-Ukrainian, but anti-war to be the most reliable and legitimate sources of accurate information.

I'm hoping most people are anti-war (even wargamers).
By this I mean not resorting to war to achieve one's goals.
Unfortunately guys like Putin share the planet with us so we need defensive organizations like NATO, but that doesn't mean being pro-war in my book.  Nor if you do not give in to Putin's unlawful demands.

Most average people probably are anti-war, but unfortunately those who are making most of the decisions in the United States are not anti-war...in fact, they are unabashedly pro-war. Both sides of the isle, democrat and republican, for the most part, support prolonging and escalating the war in Ukraine. Despite the broadening ideological divide between the major parties in this country, one of the the few things they continue to have in common is their support for armed conflict around the world. This is because the elected leaders in this country are largely bought off by the same special interests in the military industrial complex that knows no ideology other than the dollar.

This is depressing and cynical, but sadly very true.   

And I have no doubt that they made sure that none of their relatives had to fight and die.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 02:26:38 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1708799678626591074
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 02, 2023, 02:37:58 PM
"Today, a heroic Russian pilot braved withering anti-aircraft fire to clear a minefield for offensive operations!" -- Putin-ganda, probably.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 03:48:15 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 01:45:33 PMthen what are we, the US, supposed to do when things like the Ukraine happen?  or Taiwan?
the worlds far to interconnected to become isolationist.

This is a very complex question that mixes elements of ethics, morality, law, diplomacy and economy. I think the answer is, more often than not, "it depends." What I do know is that the feeling of wanting to "f*ck Russia", "f*ck Putin" or "f*ck China" cannot serve as a legitimate basis to spend billions of US taxpayer dollars, risk broader armed conflict or even all out nuclear war.

I'm not suggesting that "doing nothing" is the right answer either. But these are extremely serious decisions that result in extremely costly and consequential outcomes. They deserve and require open discourse and debate and full transparency when weighing policy determinations.  The problem with this is that such transparency and open discourse is almost non-existent, with the government's increasing control over messaging and the factual narrative given by the mainstream media and its open efforts to censor and restrict independent outlets, it is growing increasingly more difficult for the average person to obtain accurate, truthful and balanced information.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 04:42:00 PM
I dont need the msm spin on things to know that if russia isnt stopped here they will look for more avenues to expand and try are recreate their idea of a new russian empire.  in the cold math of real politik this war is
costing next to nothing to lay low one of the worst social and political entities thats existed in the last 100 years.
we get to clean out our closets and resupply them with brand new kit which in turn leads to more manufacturing
jobs.  I know its not that simple but its close.  I crossed checked it with Daffy Duck.  :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 02, 2023, 05:12:08 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 03:48:15 PMThis is a very complex question that mixes elements of ethics, morality, law, diplomacy and economy. I think the answer is, more often than not, "it depends." What I do know is that the feeling of wanting to "f*ck Russia", "f*ck Putin" or "f*ck China" cannot serve as a legitimate basis to spend billions of US taxpayer dollars, risk broader armed conflict or even all out nuclear war.

I'm not suggesting that "doing nothing" is the right answer either. But these are extremely serious decisions that result in extremely costly and consequential outcomes. They deserve and require open discourse and debate and full transparency when weighing policy determinations.  The problem with this is that such transparency and open discourse is almost non-existent, with the government's increasing control over messaging and the factual narrative given by the mainstream media and its open efforts to censor and restrict independent outlets, it is growing increasingly more difficult for the average person to obtain accurate, truthful and balanced information.

I agreed with every word you wrote until you got to the italicized part, and then I disagreed with almost everything you said after that.  I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, which we'll both agree is the cornerstone of democracy.

I think we have lots of alternate mainstream media companies, which feed us each carefully palatable and confirmation-bias-driven news content in an effort to sell us more advertising.  The government doesn't have the talent or the reach to run this sort of thing.  I think it's market driven. 

Clicks sell.  News that doesn't generate clicks goes out of business or gets acquired by news that does sell clicks.  I don't think there's any need to attribute to malice or government conspiracy what can be a fairly predictable outcome of the market-driven economy we've all agreed is the worst form of economics (except for all the rest!). 

Just my $0.02, obviously.  We agree on where we've ended up, just not how we've got there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 05:54:35 PM
its still almost fantastical to see this.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7d9Vd6XkAAz8dp?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 06:42:34 PM
 :stormtrooper2:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7cr_fHX0AMLAhl?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 07:31:55 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 02, 2023, 05:12:08 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 03:48:15 PMThis is a very complex question that mixes elements of ethics, morality, law, diplomacy and economy. I think the answer is, more often than not, "it depends." What I do know is that the feeling of wanting to "f*ck Russia", "f*ck Putin" or "f*ck China" cannot serve as a legitimate basis to spend billions of US taxpayer dollars, risk broader armed conflict or even all out nuclear war.

I'm not suggesting that "doing nothing" is the right answer either. But these are extremely serious decisions that result in extremely costly and consequential outcomes. They deserve and require open discourse and debate and full transparency when weighing policy determinations.  The problem with this is that such transparency and open discourse is almost non-existent, with the government's increasing control over messaging and the factual narrative given by the mainstream media and its open efforts to censor and restrict independent outlets, it is growing increasingly more difficult for the average person to obtain accurate, truthful and balanced information.

I agreed with every word you wrote until you got to the italicized part, and then I disagreed with almost everything you said after that.  I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, which we'll both agree is the cornerstone of democracy.

I think we have lots of alternate mainstream media companies, which feed us each carefully palatable and confirmation-bias-driven news content in an effort to sell us more advertising.  The government doesn't have the talent or the reach to run this sort of thing.  I think it's market driven. 

Clicks sell.  News that doesn't generate clicks goes out of business or gets acquired by news that does sell clicks.  I don't think there's any need to attribute to malice or government conspiracy what can be a fairly predictable outcome of the market-driven economy we've all agreed is the worst form of economics (except for all the rest!). 

Just my $0.02, obviously.  We agree on where we've ended up, just not how we've got there.

Sure, we can agree to disagree, but that doesn't change present reality and the unassailable facts upon which my opinion is based. Anything else is, with all due respect, naive at best, and willfully ignorant at worst. People simply cannot deny this truth anymore or bury their heads in the sand. Otherwise, the cornerstone of democracy of which you speak will be lost. This is not hyperbole.

It can no longer seriously be challenged that the federal government has colluded with media and big tech to censor dissenting opinions and views and in order to drive a very specific narrative.

https://www.courthousenews.com/biden-censored-pandemic-skeptics-in-collusion-with-social-media-firms-judge-rules/ (https://www.courthousenews.com/biden-censored-pandemic-skeptics-in-collusion-with-social-media-firms-judge-rules/)

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/media/reps/dr-paul-highlights-government-collusion-with-social-media-platforms-to-censor-americans/ (https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/media/reps/dr-paul-highlights-government-collusion-with-social-media-platforms-to-censor-americans/)

https://apnews.com/article/social-media-protected-speech-lawsuit-injunction-148c1cd43f88a0284d5a3c53fd333727 (https://apnews.com/article/social-media-protected-speech-lawsuit-injunction-148c1cd43f88a0284d5a3c53fd333727)

https://judiciary.house.gov/media/press-releases/documents-reveal-fbi-colluded-compromised-ukrainian-intelligence-agency-0 (https://judiciary.house.gov/media/press-releases/documents-reveal-fbi-colluded-compromised-ukrainian-intelligence-agency-0)

https://nypost.com/2023/07/10/fbi-facilitated-social-media-takedown-requests-made-by-ukrainian-spy-agency-report/ (https://nypost.com/2023/07/10/fbi-facilitated-social-media-takedown-requests-made-by-ukrainian-spy-agency-report/)

This is real and Orwellian by any measure. I'm not sure why one would deny it. All peoples across the entire ideological spectrum have an interest in combating this.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 02, 2023, 07:37:22 PM
Now you're sounding as certain as Starfury, my friend!  I hear you, but at this point, I think we operate in a different fact universe.  Hopefully, we'll both stay skeptical and critical and eventually find ourselves at the same truth!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 08:19:32 PM
so we can haz R&P agains?  :evil:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 08:21:18 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 08:19:32 PMso we can haz R&P agains?   :evil:

No. But you're right.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 08:47:48 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 08:21:18 PMNo. But you're right.

see Slash, I was right!  :ROFL:

(https://64.media.tumblr.com/e9f9846de184e2a93de1f953ba0f24bc/7500aed778d3906e-49/s400x600/fc989b56f91a4a676f271e92b8efc8cbc9a5cf0d.gif)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 02, 2023, 10:51:52 PM
There's always a, 'first' for everything Star Old Buddy. At least that's what Daffy Duck says. Just tonight I heard about a Bill before the Canadian Parliament supported by Trudeau that would REQUIRE all Pod Casters to register with the Federal Govt. to combat, "Mis-Information" on the Internet. There's some sort of financial limit to the legislation but the Bill would affect practically all Pod Casters in the country. We can only guess what the government would consider misinformation.

I came of age when questioning Authority was good thing. The Vietnam War, The Civil Rights Movement, the Kennedy Assassinations were all questioned extensively and the questioners were pooh-poohed by many in authority. Many who were later discovered to be complicit in causing or ignoring things that caused much tragedy. Authority should always be questioned in a Free Society. "The Truth can never be the enemy of a truly Just Cause" a very wise Fortune Cookie once told me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 03, 2023, 12:19:57 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 07:12:13 AMHere's a novel concept. It's possible to be pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia and anti-war, all at the same time. I find commentators who are pro-Ukrainian, but anti-war to be the most reliable and legitimate sources of accurate information.

Neville Chamberlain was antiwar and thought he could negotiate for peace.  You of all people I would think would understand that you can't negotiate with the Hitlers, Stalins, or Putins.  They only know blood, and much will be spilled until Putin can be forced to negotiate.  Thinking you can deal with Putin is delusional.  Putin is betting on the soft alt-right cutting off aid to Ukraine, thus giving him a more favorable political situation. It would be tragic to hand Putin a political victory after all the suffering Ukraine has endured. 

I like willy oam too, but I would ask him the same thing, do you really think you can negotiate with a douche like Putin ?  I see no end to this without more killing, so lets suck it up and arm the Ukrainians with what they need to end it decisively and soon.  Pussy footing around is only prolonging the war and costing more lives. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on October 03, 2023, 12:46:50 AM
Quote from: Skoop on October 03, 2023, 12:19:57 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 02, 2023, 07:12:13 AMHere's a novel concept. It's possible to be pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia and anti-war, all at the same time. I find commentators who are pro-Ukrainian, but anti-war to be the most reliable and legitimate sources of accurate information.

Neville Chamberlain was antiwar and thought he could negotiate for peace.  You of all people I would think would understand that you can't negotiate with the Hitlers, Stalins, or Putins.  They only know blood, and much will be spilled until Putin can be forced to negotiate.  Thinking you can deal with Putin is delusional.  Putin is betting on the soft alt-right cutting off aid to Ukraine, thus giving him a more favorable political situation. It would be tragic to hand Putin a political victory after all the suffering Ukraine has endured. 

I like willy oam too, but I would ask him the same thing, do you really think you can negotiate with a douche like Putin ?  I see no end to this without more killing, so lets suck it up and arm the Ukrainians with what they need to end it decisively and soon.  Pussy footing around is only prolonging the war and costing more lives.
Trump done it. Actually, was there a "dictator" he didn't cosy up to?   :TimeOut:

As for cutting off aid to Ukraine - the seeds of such a thing seem to be in the making. Slovakia. Hungry. Even Poland, a stalwart for pushing support to Ukraine - alot of which was not sanctioned initially - has rumblings of discontent.

I agree with FarAway Sooner here - I think it's media that controls government - not the other way about. I can clearly see which MSM outlets support the government in the UK and which do not.

Sure - they *might* try and get rid of the ones that don't support their agenda. At least - at the moment - we're not seeing any reporters falling out of windows.

But in the UK there were plans afoot, and we should certainly not close our eyes. The UK Government, in it's desire to go further right than I have ever seen a Conservative Party go, tried to grab hold of the powers of the BBC. How? By suggesting the funding is changed. Not for the benefit of the tax payer (which they argued) but to basically let it dwindle into insignificance.

Of course we could argue how "unbaised" the BBC is, but we an surely agree that for the Government to try and take control and/or dismantle it seems one step closer to Chinese News.

And in fact, when that didn't work, they slipped one of their political donors in as the head! The phrase from the old movie Braveheart comes to mind..."if we can't get them out, we'll breed them out"

The problem with the internet is every wanker has a voice - yeah, including me. Can any of us believe anything we read? Even those links you provided JH - I don't know their agenda.

I imagine this is of course only going to get worse with AI.

I was going to say gone are the days when we could believe what we read - but that's never really been a thing. I was just naive when I thought that.

I think the best we can do is sniff around to try and get confirmation on things we read. - and perhaps there's some truth in the fact things like that may thin out in the years ahead.

But also, fuck Putin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on October 03, 2023, 03:16:31 AM
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 03, 2023, 07:29:39 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 02, 2023, 10:51:52 PMThere's always a, 'first' for everything Star Old Buddy. At least that's what Daffy Duck says. Just tonight I heard about a Bill before the Canadian Parliament supported by Trudeau that would REQUIRE all Pod Casters to register with the Federal Govt. to combat, "Mis-Information" on the Internet. There's some sort of financial limit to the legislation but the Bill would affect practically all Pod Casters in the country. We can only guess what the government would consider misinformation.

I came of age when questioning Authority was good thing. The Vietnam War, The Civil Rights Movement, the Kennedy Assassinations were all questioned extensively and the questioners were pooh-poohed by many in authority. Many who were later discovered to be complicit in causing or ignoring things that caused much tragedy. Authority should always be questioned in a Free Society. "The Truth can never be the enemy of a truly Just Cause" a very wise Fortune Cookie once told me.

As a former trial attorney, I was taught that the best way to determine the truth was from proponents and opponents of an idea to vigorously debate, in public, providing evidence and argument for their respective positions.  From this debate, a more accurate version of the truth would emerge, and society would thereby benefit from this clash of competing ideas.    Apparently, we no longer feel this is necessary, and that truth can now be established by the simple suppression, without debate, of readily identifiable "misinformation" as determined by some group of people who are somehow more knowledgeable than we.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 03, 2023, 12:47:23 PM
Regarding giving Ukraine whatever they need to win, would that also include Nukes? Who here, for the record, would be in favor of giving nuclear weapons to Ukraine if they asked for them? If the answer is, 'no', then you really don't support giving them whatever they need if it came to that. So there are limits to what the West is willing to provide, that doesn't sound like heresy to me.

Regarding Trump cozying-up to dictators, if you mean engaging them in meaningful dialog in order to curb their behavior, and doing it successfully--no new wars under his admin., then I would be in favor of cozying away. Believe them? No way. But as the Great One used to say, "Trust but verify". That worked pretty well in 1980, it'll work today.

Regarding the take-over of BBC, as I understand it, Britain already has Hate-Speech Laws on the books that prohibit speech the government doesn't approve under penalty of fines or imprisonment. Does this work both ways or just when the Party in power is the one a person particularly supports?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 03, 2023, 01:15:44 PM
Oh, Lord, maybe we should turn the R&P filter back on for this thread.  I've learned a lot about the Ukraine War from you guys in the last 585 pages, but if we really want to talk about this stuff, can we do it in an R&P thread or on an R&P forum or something?

Full confession, Sir Slash:  After being on the R&P thread for a month a year ago, I blocked your posts.  They soon thereafter closed the R&P board, and I haven't been able to figure out how to unblock your posts.  I've enjoyed reading them, so I now have to click on every one of your posts to read them.  I've been too proud to admit this to anybody until now.    :Loser:   :justice:

Quote from: Tripoli on October 03, 2023, 07:29:39 AMAs a former trial attorney, I was taught that the best way to determine the truth was from proponents and opponents of an idea to vigorously debate, in public, providing evidence and argument for their respective positions.  From this debate, a more accurate version of the truth would emerge, and society would thereby benefit from this clash of competing ideas.    Apparently, we no longer feel this is necessary, and that truth can now be established by the simple suppression, without debate, of readily identifiable "misinformation" as determined by some group of people who are somehow more knowledgeable than we.

RIP, the Hegelian Dialectic.   :guillotine:

One book on this topic that might be really illuminating, if you want to read it:  The Righteous Mind (https://www.amazon.com/Righteous-Mind-Divided-Politics-Religion/dp/0307455777/ref=monarch_sidesheet), by Jonathan Haidt

The author is a former diehard Liberal, who's spent the last 10-15 years fighting for academic freedom (primarily to express conservative views) in US higher ed.  His work is heavily influenced by another more famous psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize in Economics for his research into human decision making.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 03, 2023, 01:39:29 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 03, 2023, 01:15:44 PMOh, Lord, maybe we should turn the R&P filter back on for this thread. 

Oh please lets do.

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 03, 2023, 01:15:44 PMCan we do it in an R&P thread or on an R&P forum or something?

Oh please lets don't.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2023, 03:30:26 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 03, 2023, 12:47:23 PMRegarding Trump cozying-up to dictators, if you mean engaging them in meaningful dialog in order to curb their behavior, and doing it successfully--no new wars under his admin., then I would be in favor of cozying away.


he got buddy buddy with Kim and now Japan and Korea gets to have missile drills every month.
he got into bed with putin and now we've had over a year and a half of a land war in Europe because of it.
and lets not forget his party with the taliban at Camp David which directly led to the shit show when we withdrew.
ya..... great way to curb their behavior.   :Loser:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 03, 2023, 03:45:12 PM
I have NO desire to repeat the food fight of R&P. Ever.  :HideEyes: Star all the things you just listed occurred during the Presidency of Joe Biden, not Mr. Trump. Call Daffy Duck, he'll back me up.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 03, 2023, 03:46:41 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 03, 2023, 01:15:44 PMOh, Lord, maybe we should turn the R&P filter back on for this thread. 

Agreed, and I apologize for the role I played in the derail.

Everybody, please return to your regular programming.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 03, 2023, 03:47:34 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/vPpjx7f/indignation-jump.gif)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 03, 2023, 03:50:30 PM
...and let me just add for the record, I don't appreciate the games you two are playing with your sig lines. We don't allow R&P posts so there has been quite a bit of somewhat lively debate over whether to permit it in sig lines. I, for one voted for not censoring it, but it wasn't entirely unanimous. It would be nice if everyone would just use common sense and be decent so as not to antagonize anyone else and to not make the lives of those of us who manage this place more difficult and stressful.

One can dream...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2023, 03:57:21 PM
fine on the sig line

QuoteStar all the things you just listed occurred during the Presidency of Joe Biden, not Mr. Trump.

his poor leadership on international issues directly led to north korea expanding its missile program and his meeting with the taliban resulted in 5000 of the fuckers being released and them feeling emboldened when we left.
he was also impeached over his shenanigans with the Ukraine.  his claims to want to leave NATO definitely led putin to think he would get free ride invading Ukraine.  ya... real effective policy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2023, 03:59:20 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 03, 2023, 03:50:30 PMand to not make the lives of those of us who manage this place more difficult and stressful.

this is as well behaved as we get  :pirate:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 03, 2023, 05:12:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 04:42:00 PMcosting next to nothing to lay low one of the worst social and political entities thats existed in the last 100 years.

Given that they (russian Imperialists) have persisted decades past the Reich IMO they are tied with them as worst.... but who was the worst in the previous 100 years?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 03, 2023, 05:15:16 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 02, 2023, 05:54:35 PMits still almost fantastical to see this.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7d9Vd6XkAAz8dp?format=jpg&name=large)




Oh go on...... it is fantastical to see that bad boy
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 03, 2023, 05:33:18 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 02, 2023, 10:51:52 PMThere's always a, 'first' for everything Star Old Buddy. At least that's what Daffy Duck says. Just tonight I heard about a Bill before the Canadian Parliament supported by Trudeau that would REQUIRE all Pod Casters to register with the Federal Govt. to combat, "Mis-Information" on the Internet. There's some sort of financial limit to the legislation but the Bill would affect practically all Pod Casters in the country. We can only guess what the government would consider misinformation.

I came of age when questioning Authority was good thing. The Vietnam War, The Civil Rights Movement, the Kennedy Assassinations were all questioned extensively and the questioners were pooh-poohed by many in authority. Many who were later discovered to be complicit in causing or ignoring things that caused much tragedy. Authority should always be questioned in a Free Society. "The Truth can never be the enemy of a truly Just Cause" a very wise Fortune Cookie once told me.

Dude! Ivermectin will never ever save the life of a person dying of Covid. FULL STOP! If you think that saying otherwise is somehow protected under "freedom of expression" in Canada; then you are not a expert in Canadian Law/Canadian Constitutional Law.

Here is the first section of our Charter of Rights and Freedoms.... keep this in mind.... the very first section!

1. The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms guarantees the rights and freedoms set out in it subject only to such reasonable limits prescribed by law as can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society.

Our federal judges have very clearly sided with the Feds on this one. Bullshit false statements like Ivermectin cures Covid, etc., etc., that can result in harm to others are not protected.


Thank-you for following my TedTalk
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 03, 2023, 05:45:17 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on October 03, 2023, 07:29:39 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 02, 2023, 10:51:52 PMThere's always a, 'first' for everything Star Old Buddy. At least that's what Daffy Duck says. Just tonight I heard about a Bill before the Canadian Parliament supported by Trudeau that would REQUIRE all Pod Casters to register with the Federal Govt. to combat, "Mis-Information" on the Internet. There's some sort of financial limit to the legislation but the Bill would affect practically all Pod Casters in the country. We can only guess what the government would consider misinformation.

I came of age when questioning Authority was good thing. The Vietnam War, The Civil Rights Movement, the Kennedy Assassinations were all questioned extensively and the questioners were pooh-poohed by many in authority. Many who were later discovered to be complicit in causing or ignoring things that caused much tragedy. Authority should always be questioned in a Free Society. "The Truth can never be the enemy of a truly Just Cause" a very wise Fortune Cookie once told me.

As a former trial attorney, I was taught that the best way to determine the truth was from proponents and opponents of an idea to vigorously debate, in public, providing evidence and argument for their respective positions.  From this debate, a more accurate version of the truth would emerge, and society would thereby benefit from this clash of competing ideas.    Apparently, we no longer feel this is necessary, and that truth can now be established by the simple suppression, without debate, of readily identifiable "misinformation" as determined by some group of people who are somehow more knowledgeable than we.

Do you really believe that 5G wireless causes covid? Or that traffic circles cause tornados?

Do you believe that the general public have a role in determining the truthfulness of these statements?

With all due respect, social media has given the 'idiot masses' a platform where previously they had none. Their opinion does not matter in the determination of truthfullness. That is the legitimate role of subject matter experts.

Lets give technocracy and GENIOCRACY a try.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 03, 2023, 05:57:31 PM
I've said it once...now I'm saying it twice.

Back to Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2023, 06:51:05 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7fXlS-WYAI6FYj?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2023, 07:01:16 PM
the vaunted red army  :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1709182299399467478
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 03, 2023, 07:03:38 PM
supposedly this was 20kn behind the lines.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1709075569885733248
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 03, 2023, 10:35:14 PM
Back to Ukraine by unanimous consent. My point's been made. And now that we ALL are in agreement regarding offensive Sig lines, mine has been corrected.

I'd like to know the thoughts of the Learned Minds here about the Russians planning to build a new Railroad Line across the southern region of Ukraine they control, Taganrog to Melitopol I think it was. Serious plan or just a head-fake? If they can do it, will it make a huge difference logistically? I'm thinking Putin will have all the help he needs. If he offers a choice between building the railroad or going to the frontlines...everybody will grab a shovel and head-out.  :grin:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 03, 2023, 10:46:42 PM
Hmmmm...  I thought there was already a rail line running there?  And I thought the problem was not so much that the rail line was difficult to build (or repair), as that the railroad engines and rolling stock were relatively easy targets so long as they were within range of artillery or missiles?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on October 04, 2023, 02:14:41 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 03, 2023, 05:57:31 PMI've said it once...now I'm saying it twice.

Back to Ukraine.
Loud and clear. Sorry. :Hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2023, 07:28:19 AM
the new rail line is a great waste of resources.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 04, 2023, 08:36:39 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 03, 2023, 05:57:31 PMBack to Ukraine.

Unless you are Russian  :evil:.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 04, 2023, 10:42:34 AM
JD, your posts are always cordial, respectful, and welcome in my book. I will try to always be the same.

Good point about the engines and rolling stock. I think only the HYMARS would be in range of the new line for right now. Unless the Ukes can grab a little more territory south or get the ATACKAMS or whatever. I think it would give Putin an excuse to claim the land really belongs to him and less likely to give it up. Maybe that's what he's had in mind all along.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 04, 2023, 12:34:08 PM
If a new rail line would be a waste of resources (which I agree, at least in this phase of wartime), I totally want Russia to do it! (Insert Shia Laboef meme here.)

However, it's wishful thinking on Russia's part that this will be outside Ukraine's reach for long. The main point to sending their defensive reserves to the front line was to keep Ukraine from advancing arty and similar assets into range of the rails into Crimea. While that's admittedly understandable (to at least some extent), they've crippled their defense doing that. So the (remaining) rails north of Azov are going away sooner or later.

Still, from an internal political perspective, that sort of makes sense: it would be a signal of political confidence that the Orks can pull out of their erosion. Not a very practical sign, but a sign.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2023, 01:28:24 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 04, 2023, 10:42:34 AMGood point about the engines and rolling stock. I think only the HYMARS would be in range of the new line for right now. Unless the Ukes can grab a little more territory south or get the ATACKAMS or whatever. I think it would give Putin an excuse to claim the land really belongs to him and less likely to give it up. Maybe that's what he's had in mind all along.

Yeah, they'll be getting the ATACMS soon, as well as the Storm Shadows and SCALPs that they already have from the UK and the French.  The bigger question, obviously, is how many of them they get in any given months. 

Trains are big targets and hard to hide.  Marshalling yards where you can unload them are even harder to hide.  It was targeting those sites--and the satellite distribution centers served by those rail yards--with the HIMARS that initially created so many logistical problems for the Russians after they showed up.

To be sure, the expensive munitions that we'd use to target those trains almost certainly cost more than the trains themselves.  But, given a NATO economy that's 40x larger than that of the Russians, I figure we can afford to spend a premium there.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2023, 01:32:09 PM
I take everything I read in the media with a huge grain of salt.  Most of it seems intended to titillate or terrorize (often both), which probably says something about what's generating clicks on the internet these days.  But, for the life of me, I can't figure out why, 20 months after the Russians first invaded Ukraine, NATO countries are still struggling to figure out how to increase artillery shell production.

I get why building cruise missiles or aircraft or MBTs takes a long time.  I know retooling factory lines doesn't happen overnight.  But are we really so limited that we can't build more production lines for 155mm shells, or that we can't shift to working round-the-clock shifts to produce more shells than we did historically?

Or is the problem simply that we're relying on our traditional, cumbersome contracting and procurement processes?  JarHead isn't the only one who's suggested that the profit motive in the West has been a driving factor behind the evolution of NATO policy.  But why is it so freaking hard to build 155mm shells?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 04, 2023, 02:07:44 PM
Why are the Russians so wedded to rails? Don't they have any truck drivers?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on October 04, 2023, 03:10:42 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 04, 2023, 02:07:44 PMWhy are the Russians so wedded to rails? Don't they have any truck drivers?
They probably don't have any trucks!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on October 04, 2023, 03:13:33 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 04, 2023, 10:42:34 AMJD, your posts are always cordial, respectful, and welcome in my book. I will try to always be the same.
...
Thank you - though I'm as guilty as some at times. Also, it was me that started to take this down the politics road  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2023, 03:21:03 PM
Rails are FAR easier to move heavy tonnage.  In normal, civilian transport, the cost per ton-mile is somewhere between 3x and 20x cheaper for rail. 

Obviously, trucks have to get supplies the final stretch of the distance to the front, but the ease-of-access to nearby railheads is a huge factor.  This is even more the case when roads are poorly maintained or you have adverse weather. (in particular, trains are largely immune to mud and snow)

The primary thing that the HIMARS did was to drive the centralized Russian supply depots back from about 15 miles behind the front to about 40 miles behind the front.  Given that the Russians have a limited fleet of trucks, this meant that their ability to move stuff the last mile was reduced more than 50%.

The SCALPs and Storm Shadows have made that even harder, although there are fewer of them in inventory than the HIMARS-launched rockets.  At least, there were in the starting days of the war.

As I opined a few threads up, the inability of the NATO allies to upgrade their production of ordinance over more than a year-and-a-half of war has been infuriating.  It makes me suspect that it is a feature of the system, rather than a bug.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 04, 2023, 03:32:27 PM
All one needs do is go back to the early days of the invasion and you'll see why the Russians favor rail over trucks. 

Another issue they had then and still have no with motorized transport is that due to enormous graft and corruption, many of their wheeled vehicles are equipped with substandard wheels and parts as orders were made on bottom of the barrel equipment but passed off as purchases of a higher grade so that quartermasters could pocket the difference.  Lots of very Sgt. Bilko stuff goes on in the Russian motor pool.

It's telling that the Russian army has been unable to mount any kind of offensive operations much beyond their access to rail.  It's also why I was critical of the UAF in not making Starbolisk the goal of their counterattack rather than Tokmak/Melitopol.  It wasn't as sexy for the media and NATO but it is the most vital railhead for the Russian war effort and its loss would've been catastrophic.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 04, 2023, 03:42:16 PM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on October 04, 2023, 03:13:33 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 04, 2023, 10:42:34 AMJD, your posts are always cordial, respectful, and welcome in my book. I will try to always be the same.
...
Thank you - though I'm as guilty as some at times. Also, it was me that started to take this down the politics road  :HideEyes:

Absolutely not! And it warms my heart to see you posting around here with greater frequency. Hope you stick around.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2023, 03:45:13 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2023, 01:32:09 PMBut are we really so limited that we can't build more production lines for 155mm shells, or that we can't shift to working round-the-clock shifts to produce more shells than we did historically?

more factories are coming online and the ones that are already operating are working 3 shifts.
IIRC one of the driving factors in giving them sub munition shells was to get over the hump of increasing our production.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-u-s-planning-artillery-shell-production-boost-to-over-80000-a-month
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 04, 2023, 04:32:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2023, 03:45:13 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2023, 01:32:09 PMBut are we really so limited that we can't build more production lines for 155mm shells, or that we can't shift to working round-the-clock shifts to produce more shells than we did historically?

more factories are coming online and the ones that are already operating are working 3 shifts.
IIRC one of the driving factors in giving them sub munition shells was to get over the hump of increasing our production.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-u-s-planning-artillery-shell-production-boost-to-over-80000-a-month

looks like meat is back on the menu for some  :whistle:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 04, 2023, 04:55:49 PM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 03, 2023, 12:47:23 PMRegarding giving Ukraine whatever they need to win, would that also include Nukes? Who here, for the record, would be in favor of giving nuclear weapons to Ukraine if they asked for them? If the answer is, 'no', then you really don't support giving them whatever they need if it came to that. So there are limits to what the West is willing to provide, that doesn't sound like heresy to me.

Regarding Trump cozying-up to dictators, if you mean engaging them in meaningful dialog in order to curb their behavior, and doing it successfully--no new wars under his admin., then I would be in favor of cozying away. Believe them? No way. But as the Great One used to say, "Trust but verify". That worked pretty well in 1980, it'll work today.

Regarding the take-over of BBC, as I understand it, Britain already has Hate-Speech Laws on the books that prohibit speech the government doesn't approve under penalty of fines or imprisonment. Does this work both ways or just when the Party in power is the one a person particularly supports?

Yeah i'd say we'd all be in agreement of not sending nukes to Ukraine, talk about going to extremes to make a point.

Since you went there, Israel acquired nukes to fend off the Arabs, and the pakis acquired nukes cause the world thought the Russians were going to roll through the Afghans then on to them.  Which makes the pakis a lesson on never sending nukes for security guarantees, not very stable there most of the time.  So it's not as audacious as it may seem cause it's been done before.

Let's not forget that Ukraine HAD the third largest Nuke arsenal when they broke off, and they did the right ethical thing by turning them over.....I wonder if they regret that today.  As part of that agreement, the US along with Russia, vowed to be protectors of Ukraine.  Ironic that one of those protectors is now their biggest threat.  I'm surprised this diplomatic commitment isn't brought up more by the Biden administration to justify spending to critics, but Biden probably struggles with remembering what he had for lunch, let alone the history of Ukraine. 

Regarding Trump negotiating like the 1980s.....Bro, no way trump is even in the same league as Reagan.     
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2023, 05:02:04 PM
I don't think any military around the world planned on a major conflict lasting more then a few months.
I can't think of one 80s WW3 novel that had the war lasting more then 4 months.  its just been the way things were.
then two wars in Iraq reinforced that concept.  the article I posted was somewhat recent, the google search had articles going back to late last year.  I think the biggest hangup is plant machinery being built to make this stuff.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2023, 05:03:21 PM
Quote from: Skoop on October 04, 2023, 04:55:49 PMI wonder if they regret that today. 


you wonder........  :doh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2023, 05:08:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2023, 03:45:13 PMmore factories are coming online and the ones that are already operating are working 3 shifts.
IIRC one of the driving factors in giving them sub munition shells was to get over the hump of increasing our production.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-u-s-planning-artillery-shell-production-boost-to-over-80000-a-month
Thanks for the link.  It's good to get the most recent specifics.  Here's my understanding of that article:

* We were manufacturing 14,000 shells/mo in February-2022.
* 20 months later, we've increased capacity to 24,000 shells/mo (call that a 70% increase).
* A year from now, the US plans/hopes to be at 80,000 shells/mo.
* As of April, the Ukrainians claim to be firing approximately 200,000 155mm shells/mo.

So, 2 1/2 years after the fighting started, if everything goes according to plan, the US will be able to produce 40% of what Ukraine says it needs, assuming that we don't allocate a single shell to backfilling our own depleted inventories?

I know that other manufacturers in other countries are also looking to produce shells.  They've been talking about it for close to a year now.  I just haven't seen that much of an increase.  And I'm wondering why it's taking 2 1/2 years or more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2023, 05:30:55 PM
this isnt 1942 and we arent at war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 04, 2023, 06:40:56 PM
I'm not asking us to get the whole US economy on a war footing.  I'm asking us to do what it takes to start manufacturing 100,000 or 120,000 shells per month for a very particular kind of howitzer in a war against an adversary where it could likely be the difference between winning and losing.

The fact that we haven't been able to do so suggests to me that helping Ukraine to win the war doesn't seem to be a very high priority for us.  Or, rather, it's not as high a priority as some other things.  I suspect profit motives for arms manufacturers might figure more prominently in that than many of us have suspected.

I didn't feel this way a year ago.  But as I've seen how slowly and clumsily this ship has turned, I've begun to wonder whether the slow ramp on production is a bug or a feature.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 04, 2023, 06:51:28 PM
its a feature of building brand new factories.  right now the labor pool for construction is pretty lean because theres so much going on right now. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 04, 2023, 08:14:51 PM
Meanwhile, remember a winter or two ago (or both) when Russian vloggers had a meme going where they'd leave their cameras on 24 hours to show off running their cheap gas stoves all the time? Probably the one way they were heating their little apartments, but still...

...this winter? Maaaaaybe not so much.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 04, 2023, 09:38:19 PM
Great video. Looks like Vlad may have to get his Longjohns out this winter.  :buck2: 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 05, 2023, 07:16:40 AM
Article in Newsweek online today about a visit that Yevgeny Balitsky paid to Putin in August, at which he called for the annexation of the Baltic states, Finland and parts of Poland by force and despite the fact that they are all in NATO, to restore the Russian Empire.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on October 05, 2023, 08:03:15 AM
Quote from: Gusington on October 05, 2023, 07:16:40 AMArticle in Newsweek online today about a visit that Yevgeny Balitsky paid to Putin in August, at which he called for the annexation of the Baltic states, Finland and parts of Poland by force and despite the fact that they are all in NATO, to restore the Russian Empire.

Of course, considering the annexation of Ukraine went so well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 05, 2023, 10:24:00 AM
Who is Balitsky?  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 05, 2023, 10:36:40 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 05, 2023, 10:24:00 AMWho is Balitsky?  :huh:

Ukrainian born Russian politician.  Putin's appointed governor of annexed Zaporizhzhia.  An overall rising star in the Russian government.  He's generally considered to be the most powerful and connected of the Russian collaborationist governors and has Putin's ear as well as control of some personal military forces of his own.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on October 05, 2023, 11:03:47 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 05, 2023, 10:36:40 AM
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 05, 2023, 10:24:00 AMWho is Balitsky?  :huh:

Ukrainian born Russian politician.  Putin's appointed governor of annexed Zaporizhzhia.  An overall rising star in the Russian government.  He's generally considered to be the most powerful and connected of the Russian collaborationist governors and has Putin's ear as well as control of some personal military forces of his own.
Based on that bio I would bet he can't get life insurance in Russia. Hope he is staying clear of windows.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 05, 2023, 11:45:19 AM
Yep. Don't fly Yevgeny, take an Uber.  :HideEyes: I see the weather forecast for southern Ukraine is rain 3 out of the next 5 days. So is this the beginning of Mud Wrestling Season?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 05, 2023, 01:01:14 PM
Quote from: Con on October 05, 2023, 11:03:47 AMBased on that bio I would bet he can't get life insurance in Russia. Hope he is staying clear of windows.

Putin keeps him on a pretty tight leash.  He's probably met with Putin more than any of the other collaborationist leaders and knows who is buttering his bread.  He's personally profited pretty enormously from the war and continues to do so as a straight Putin crony.  His political fortunes are tied to the war continuing and gaining more territory so it's unlikely he's going to bite the hand that feeds him just yet.

Still, Putin can turn on someone because it's Tuesday.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2023, 03:45:33 PM
another market hit in Ukraine. 49 dead including children.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7rXykMWAAAsOE3?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7r89amWcAI_ItT?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7r0yahb0AAcubA?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2023, 03:46:15 PM
which is why I have no problem watching this fuck stain get atomized.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1709848817334616106
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2023, 03:56:00 PM
as a result of todays attack this guy gets to sit next to his headless wife.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7r7pW6W8AEveJo?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2023, 04:02:20 PM
 :RockOn:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1709860070735900996
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 05, 2023, 04:10:02 PM
and lest I forget, this was a hospital yesterday.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1709920125783056389

and some dipshit from Ohio wants to play games.  :Loser:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on October 05, 2023, 04:13:08 PM
BBC reported it was a funeral wake that was hit today  :nono2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 06, 2023, 05:58:36 AM
Both are true. It was a tiny town. Now tinier.

Literally gangster terrorism.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 06, 2023, 09:22:44 AM
Here's a new one...Putin suggests Prigo's plane went down due to a drunken game of "hot potato" with a live grenade...

well...OK I took some artistic license there...but then again it's Russia...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-suggests-wagner-leaders-possibly-got-drunk-and-accidentally-blew-up-prigozhin-s-plane/ar-AA1hKXm8?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8f92e2e1939d4996947e66e7b5116321&ei=53 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-suggests-wagner-leaders-possibly-got-drunk-and-accidentally-blew-up-prigozhin-s-plane/ar-AA1hKXm8?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8f92e2e1939d4996947e66e7b5116321&ei=53)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on October 06, 2023, 10:09:43 AM
I wonder why he never just comes out and says "Yeah - I killed the c**t".

For someone who doesn't seem to care what the international community thinks about him, he certainly seems to care what the international community thinks about him!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 06, 2023, 11:53:11 AM
It is clear that this is truly a good vs evil type of fight. Nukes be damned, this really is about respect for humanity. One side is devoid of it.

Are there any orbiting kinetic strike weapons yet?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Groggy on October 06, 2023, 01:18:19 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on October 06, 2023, 09:22:44 AMHere's a new one...Putin suggests Prigo's plane went down due to a drunken game of "hot potato" with a live grenade...

well...OK I took some artistic license there...but then again it's Russia...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-suggests-wagner-leaders-possibly-got-drunk-and-accidentally-blew-up-prigozhin-s-plane/ar-AA1hKXm8?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8f92e2e1939d4996947e66e7b5116321&ei=53 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-suggests-wagner-leaders-possibly-got-drunk-and-accidentally-blew-up-prigozhin-s-plane/ar-AA1hKXm8?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8f92e2e1939d4996947e66e7b5116321&ei=53)

Litvinenko had been juggling vials of polonium and one fell and broke into his mouth. Tragic accident.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 06, 2023, 02:33:05 PM
No real game of Twister should ever be played without hand grenades.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 06, 2023, 02:52:29 PM
Geebus Star. That mortar(?) shell just took that one out. War is indeed a gruesome business.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2023, 03:17:10 PM
at first I thought is was something in the 20 to 30mm range but that would have disintegrated the guy behind him.
now I think it was a grenade, either rifle or automatic launcher.
sweet shot though!   :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2023, 04:53:09 PM
an espresso version of russia state media.   :uglystupid2:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1710234771555557546
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 06, 2023, 06:17:37 PM
russian infantry hiding behind what left of some russian tanks.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7xsJsPXAAAH8cJ?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 07, 2023, 10:21:45 PM
So Strykers are really good at something; dodging ATGMs.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/to-dodge-russian-missiles-ukraine-s-u-s-made-stryker-fighting-vehicles-dodge-and-weave-it-s-a-tactic-from-1973/ar-AA1hRlVK?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a2a2202f0d1c45da98eedaa4e33bc546&ei=11 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/to-dodge-russian-missiles-ukraine-s-u-s-made-stryker-fighting-vehicles-dodge-and-weave-it-s-a-tactic-from-1973/ar-AA1hRlVK?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a2a2202f0d1c45da98eedaa4e33bc546&ei=11)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 07, 2023, 10:54:42 PM
8 lives left

https://twitter.com/i/status/1710668568457601467
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 08, 2023, 03:21:10 AM
Found one for you, Star

https://twitter.com/petite_michelle/status/1710590863129145660
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 08, 2023, 06:30:42 AM
good rules to live by.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 08, 2023, 07:59:58 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1710995709976035536
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 08, 2023, 02:05:58 PM
some much needed levity

https://twitter.com/i/status/1710938673217245290
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 09, 2023, 08:49:08 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1711374473377513821
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2023, 07:28:35 AM
they're so fucking dumb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1711699950231298129
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2023, 07:36:15 AM
 :doh:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1711698303161614702
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2023, 08:03:52 AM
the future of farming in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1711697960046633194
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 10, 2023, 10:58:12 AM
From the Slash School of Carpentry: IF It Doesn't Fit, Force It.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 10, 2023, 11:39:44 AM
Drunk driving? Yes please we're russian.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 10, 2023, 01:18:40 PM
The kid on that bumper in that MLRS clip could be my brother. Just much dumber.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 10, 2023, 02:23:54 PM
Ah, I see the remote controlled anti-mine tractor tech has improved again since last I saw it!

I have genuine admiration for that problem-solving. Won't be long before tractor-drones are standard for normal farming, too.

Wonder how long it will take for remote controlled tractors to be developed for recovering Ork equipment... (If so, I hope they're equipped with speakers for playing the Terminator main theme.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 10, 2023, 02:37:48 PM
That's a great idea. I would like a Remote Controlled Grandkid Collector for when it's time to go, 'Night-Night'.  :ThumbsUp: Probably easier to pull-in destroyed Russian tanks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2023, 10:34:45 PM
so fucking stupid

https://twitter.com/i/status/1711809673102299617
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2023, 01:01:39 AM
whatever the fuck the russians tried around Avdiivka did not work out at all for them
as posted:

+820 men
+34 tanks
+91 APVs (?!?) 😨
+18 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+19 UAVs

to lazy to post pictures but even if you reduce the kit by 2/3s...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 11, 2023, 05:34:47 AM
Yeah, heard some things about that, but wanted to wait to see what kind of confirmations come up. That is some East Front level activity right there.

Time to release the floating machine gun tanks! Surely Russia still has some of those in mothballs somewhere.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 11, 2023, 08:05:23 AM
Denys is usually pretty balanced. Avdiivka:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 11, 2023, 09:39:55 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2023, 10:34:45 PMso fucking stupid

Interesting that the truck is painted white; no attempt at camouflage.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 11, 2023, 10:14:30 AM
It's camouflaged for the snow that's coming in a few months?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2023, 12:04:33 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1712116943610663074
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on October 11, 2023, 03:47:30 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2023, 01:01:39 AMwhatever the fuck the russians tried around Avdiivka did not work out at all for them
as posted:

+820 men
+34 tanks
+91 APVs (?!?) 😨
+18 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+19 UAVs

to lazy to post pictures but even if you reduce the kit by 2/3s...

This was supposed to be a distraction from something or what?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2023, 04:21:09 PM
the russians have been trying to close that pocket since day 1 of the way and this was a hail mary push I guess.
and now....

claymore drones!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1712155355306721494
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on October 11, 2023, 04:56:41 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 11, 2023, 10:14:30 AMIt's camouflaged for the snow that's coming in a few months?

Hopefully, they'll get lots of whitewash and few winter uniforms and suffer like the Wehrmacht in the winter of 41-42.

Ukraine has received a lot of winter kit and surely will receive more.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on October 11, 2023, 05:00:54 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 10, 2023, 07:28:35 AMthey're so fucking dumb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1711699950231298129

I wondered what Russia's rocket scientists were up to after August.  Don't be so hard on them Starfury, they just want to be cosmonauts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 11, 2023, 05:59:15 PM
anyone ever go back and reread the beginnings of this thread?
ya have to get to page 20 or so to get to the actual start of the war.
I had this comment which is laughable now:
QuoteI saw a bit where it was theorized that the Ukraine would need to inflict 300 tank kills and around 10000 infantry kills to get putin to call off his adventurism.
well thats certainly been surpassed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 11, 2023, 06:52:51 PM
^The good old days.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Sir Slash on October 11, 2023, 09:08:05 PM
When men were men who loaded rocket launchers with hammers and large pieces of equipment. And they tell us vodka can't kill you.  :HideEyes:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2023, 12:21:30 AM
russian got super fucked this week.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8MpsH9XEAATWNO?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 12, 2023, 12:22:54 AM
I know it doesn't look like much in terms of territory but the losses.... 
putins desperate for any kind of victory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 12, 2023, 09:17:57 AM
Long-term, Russia is probably demographically screwed by the charnel house that they've created in Southern Europe.  Shorter-term, I wonder if they even care about casualties.

So long as they have mines and trenches and artillery and Ukrainian territory, my sense is that they can keep killing Ukrainians.  That seems to be the sole goal of Russian policy at the moment.  Prevent Russian casualties seems very low on their list.

My sense is that sustaining horrible casualties, without significantly changing the logistical picture on either side, is probably most accurately referred to as "stalemate". 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 12, 2023, 09:39:20 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on October 11, 2023, 03:47:30 PMThis was supposed to be a distraction from something or what?

Unfortunately for the Russians it's not a distraction. 

34 more tanks lost in the last 24 hours.  That includes T-90's.  They're showing why the UAF shouldn't be doing massed assaults in these conditions. 

They're all in on taking a major objective before the Rasputitsa fully kicks in.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 12, 2023, 01:05:24 PM
The Russians were demographically screwed over in the long term even BEFORE they invaded. Arguably it's the key reason why they invaded.

The invasion has only made that worse. Or rather, any result other than pronto capitulation was only going to make their demographic situation increasingly worse. Which is why they went for the crazy-early win, despite being unable to keep that assault going for long enough to conventionally win: they only had to terrorize the Cossacks out of fighting back any more. (There is a principal problem in that plan.  :RockOn: )

They've been able to stave off defeat by NOT going for full mobilization and only doing some penny-parceling of forces onto the line, playing for time and hoping everyone else gets tired of helping the Cossacks not-lose. If the Russians weren't a bunch of mafia thugs in charge of neutering their own military for self-protection, they might even could have won with their crappy situations.

But then they might have bootstrapped themselves up to being a truly mighty nation and not needed to loot Ukraine of its people and functionality in order to survive another generation.

(Which is not to downplay Ukraine's own problems, though a significant fraction of those problems can be traced back to being a neighbor to Russia and a province of the Soviet Union before that.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2023, 08:53:22 AM
 very successful operation!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1712755347155272040
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 13, 2023, 07:52:58 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8WeWjIW0AA7M_L?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 13, 2023, 10:26:34 PM
^ Yeah, when someone was complaining about the ungodly amount of arty being used in this war, as though both sides were equally culpable, I wanted to throw up a little in my mouth. And then spit it. At that person.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2023, 11:52:42 AM
this is getting beyond stupid even by russian standards
and of course the thread exists

https://twitter.com/i/status/1713212038929924450
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 14, 2023, 11:58:56 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2023, 11:52:42 AMthis is getting beyond stupid even by russian standards

Seems par for the course to me. 

This is almost exactly what happened in Vuhledar while the media's attention was fixed on Bakhmut.

Since Wagner took Bakhmut the Russian Regular Army hasn't gained more than a few meters of ground that they've been able to hold.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2023, 12:06:15 PM
the amount of armor being wrecked lightens my heart.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 14, 2023, 12:08:29 PM
What heart?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 14, 2023, 12:22:32 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2023, 11:52:42 AMthis is getting beyond stupid even by russian standards
and of course the thread exists

https://twitter.com/i/status/1713212038929924450
doesn't exist for me. But I don't have an account.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2023, 01:10:14 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 14, 2023, 12:08:29 PMWhat heart?

what cute animal threads have you started?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 14, 2023, 01:28:09 PM
True :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 14, 2023, 09:09:37 PM
There were even puppies and a cat in his other most recent thread!

 :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2023, 09:26:05 PM
so why does Gus hate puppies and kittens?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 14, 2023, 09:59:59 PM
Are they the only things more adorable than me?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 14, 2023, 10:32:53 PM
no
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 14, 2023, 10:53:22 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 14, 2023, 09:59:59 PMAre they the only things more adorable than me?

Dunno Gus, from the last pic I saw of you adorable isn't the word I'd use..

(https://i.ibb.co/BGdttW3/download.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 15, 2023, 07:36:15 AM
its like watching a WoT pub match.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1713446538297372792
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 15, 2023, 08:11:15 AM
snap crackle POP

https://twitter.com/i/status/1713540788783616089
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 15, 2023, 04:33:38 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 14, 2023, 10:53:22 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 14, 2023, 09:59:59 PMAre they the only things more adorable than me?

Dunno Gus, from the last pic I saw of you adorable isn't the word I'd use..

(https://i.ibb.co/BGdttW3/download.jpg)


snorting laughter
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 15, 2023, 04:40:08 PM
whatever works
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 15, 2023, 04:42:34 PM
QuoteBanzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 15, 2023, 08:08:39 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1713592169859100905
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 15, 2023, 10:40:09 PM
this was pretty good.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 15, 2023, 10:41:03 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1713523725465784766
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 16, 2023, 07:31:50 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1713883540557811923
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 16, 2023, 04:06:46 PM
didn't have Pz-4 on this weeks russian bingo card.
the weird part are the BMP tracks.
 :shocked:

from early in the year

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8lEZpWWkAA5AYw?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8lEZ0XWcAAAg_P?format=jpg&name=large)

more recent

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8lO9taWoAA46XN?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 16, 2023, 04:19:00 PM
That has to be hoax....ish.

It likely was parked for decades in somebody's barn and then was pulled it out for shits and giggles and as a diversionary target..... that's got to be close...   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 16, 2023, 04:39:18 PM
^Agreed that can't be a recent kill  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 16, 2023, 05:51:22 PM
Quote from: Gusington on October 16, 2023, 04:39:18 PM^Agreed that can't be a recent kill  :shocked:

It's not.  A few other pictures show it was clearly dragged there. 

Consensus is that it was a Ukrainian counter battery trap.

Belongs restored in a museum.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 16, 2023, 06:02:54 PM
close call

https://twitter.com/i/status/1714045088551100709
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 16, 2023, 07:32:22 PM
Jesus.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 17, 2023, 01:41:52 AM
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 17, 2023, 09:46:03 AM
They better get a lottery ticket.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 17, 2023, 10:53:57 AM
It's an interesting video, Star.  Thanks for posting that.  My only complaint would be that he was a bit long-winded, but such is always the risk when dealing with academics.

It does give interesting food for thought on whether or not Russia proceeds with another significant mobilization any time soon.  It'll be interesting to see what we all learn if/when the fog of war lifts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 17, 2023, 12:07:27 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 16, 2023, 05:51:22 PMConsensus is that it was a Ukrainian counter battery trap.

Belongs restored in a museum.

But how long must we wait for the Ork propaganda to point to this as evidence of actual Nazis being fought against by heroic Mother Russia?

(The iron cross on the turret is especially useful.)

To be fair, at this point Russia's gonna do it anyway, so you might as well spare another tank by giving them a worthless target.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on October 17, 2023, 12:33:38 PM
Looks like ATACMs might have made their debut by wrecking an airfield full of equipment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 17, 2023, 12:52:01 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 17, 2023, 12:07:27 PMBut how long must we wait for the Ork propaganda to point to this as evidence of actual Nazis being fought against by heroic Mother Russia?

(The iron cross on the turret is especially useful.)

To be fair, at this point Russia's gonna do it anyway, so you might as well spare another tank by giving them a worthless target.

Yeah, Russians jump at the whole cross symbiology every chance they get. 

Never mind the fact that battlefield crosses and x's and deltas have been in use by militaries for literally thousands of years, including by Russians.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 17, 2023, 04:21:32 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 17, 2023, 10:53:57 AMIt's an interesting video, Star.  Thanks for posting that.


my pleasure!  I've now gotten sucked into a bunch of his work and so far its pretty decent.

QuoteLooks like ATACMs might have made their debut by wrecking an airfield full of equipment.

oh they were definitely ATACMS!  photos of the boosters and some unexploded bomblets proved that.

QuoteYeah, Russians jump at the whole cross symbiology every chance they get. 

I kind of get the feeling that the Ukrainians are just rubbing the russians face in it at this point.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 17, 2023, 04:29:37 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8phDwVbsAAuKNV?format=jpg&name=large)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 17, 2023, 08:28:26 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8pfWLybcAAmcOs?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 17, 2023, 10:44:08 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1714363897413517559
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 18, 2023, 10:32:25 AM
Damn good use of those bad boys too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2023, 05:26:21 PM
would like to know what kind of helicopters got burnt out.
result of the ATACMS strike.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8vegMUXoAAAP-Y?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2023, 05:29:21 PM
WALL-E fights for Ukraine!  drone used to plant mines right at the front.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8uasrrXgAApR4S?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2023, 05:31:20 PM
and this weeks losses around Avdiivka.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8uRbMUXoAAmCy_?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2023, 05:32:53 PM
and while I cant seem to find video or photo confirmation its claimed that 4 Frogfoots have need shot down over the last week as well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2023, 06:58:17 PM
so cute!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1714697065853251879
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 18, 2023, 07:25:58 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2023, 05:26:21 PMwould like to know what kind of helicopters got burnt out.
result of the ATACMS strike.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8vegMUXoAAAP-Y?format=jpg&name=900x900)

It's my understanding that the ATACMS in its current configuration uses a unitary M57 warhead (essentially uses a Harpoon's 500-lb warhead).  That replaced the cluster munition M39 warhead that was previously used, but that replacement program started in 2021 and wasn't expected to finish until 2024.

Forbes reported that there were 3 ATACMS used in the attack on the airbase.  Assuming that the photo is real and not altered, it would suggest that they are using cluster munition warheads.  Wouldn't a 500-pound warhead falling from 32 miles out of the sky leave a larger hole in the ground than what we see there?

I'm not so much trying to poke holes in the picture as just understand--what kind of warheads are the ATACMS using? 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2023, 07:47:59 PM
all the ATACMS we gave Ukraine have sub munition warheads.  we're never going to use them and these were some that hadn't been upgraded yet.  so call it 2850 bomblets rained on that airfield.  :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 18, 2023, 08:39:27 PM
Technically, given the 1-2% dud rate on US cluster munitions, it's probably closer to 2,807 warheads that actually detonated on the airfield and another 43 that are still lying around.  Either way, it explains the lack of large holes on the airfield.

Is it my imagination, or in the 80s, did NATO have the ability to deploy mines at road crossings via artillery and/or rockets?  Obviously, given the humanitarian concerns around minefields, I suspect that NATO decided to stop using those, but I recall them existing. 

I wonder, given the recent learnings from the Ukrainian war, whether various powers will step back in and start manufacturing/deploying minefields more abundantly?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2023, 08:59:57 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 18, 2023, 08:39:27 PMdid NATO have the ability to deploy mines at road crossings via artillery and/or rockets?


yes.  some of the released pictures from the airfield do show several unexploded bomblets.
but not very many.   :cool:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 18, 2023, 11:27:23 PM
ouch

https://twitter.com/i/status/1714532406261154004
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2023, 12:44:41 AM
 :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1714636588905341305
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2023, 01:16:01 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1714288311643300294
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 19, 2023, 08:22:14 AM
Curious what is left of Russian space capability these days...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2023, 09:04:58 AM
another day in Avdiivka.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8y01ELWoAAtnsL?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2023, 09:21:56 AM
mines?  what mines?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1714996202213609614
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 19, 2023, 11:08:22 PM
new interactive maps with a pseudo 3d option.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2023, 01:48:55 AM
that 3 day invasion is going well.
even if you cut the numbers by 3/4s......  bad day for russia.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F822fEeXcAAYup-?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2023, 07:57:14 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1715302512926892473
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2023, 07:59:19 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1715324855527084044
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on October 20, 2023, 11:15:28 AM
the vegetation seems off between the two spliced videos....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2023, 04:23:29 PM

lots of burned grass fields and churned up terrain.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2023, 05:37:35 PM
arty party!  :Party:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1715379182958469178
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2023, 06:17:20 PM
the full video.  and the was an early morning frost on the ground.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1715311629120811447
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 20, 2023, 09:04:32 PM
so fucking dumb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1715481115534741560
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 21, 2023, 12:20:08 AM
:ROFL:
in all honesty, what we gave them are older then any of my nieces and nephews.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F86kVlvW8AIMB0P?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 21, 2023, 12:27:09 AM
yesterdays losses, confirmed through video footage.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F85NiXIWoAADFdd?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 21, 2023, 12:52:54 AM
now this is interesting

https://twitter.com/i/status/1715582858138464347
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 21, 2023, 12:04:32 PM
^The pucker factor definitely rises towards the end of that clip.

The world has grown quite...'interesting' the last few years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MOS:96B2P on October 21, 2023, 12:25:59 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 21, 2023, 12:52:54 AMnow this is interesting

https://twitter.com/i/status/1715582858138464347

The author of the video added the below information.  It makes the video a little more understandable. The video is taken from the 2nd SU-27 who follows the lead SU-27 away from the intercept.  

Correction to the first post, it appears the lead Su-27 is breaking away from the Typhoon escorting the RC-135W and the wingman follows the lead Su-27 (unfortunately unable to edit once I add a second post and it becomes a thread.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 21, 2023, 01:21:53 PM
never gets old

https://twitter.com/i/status/1715671299043799216
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 21, 2023, 01:22:39 PM
now in its proper thread.  :tongue:
another day around  Avdiivka

Tweet error (does not exist)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1715762924088615286
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 22, 2023, 09:59:26 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9C6YstW4AEtewD?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 22, 2023, 12:10:35 PM
supposedly the final tally from the last weeks airfield strikes.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9CVJyKWwAAtVPK?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on October 22, 2023, 02:34:36 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 22, 2023, 12:10:35 PMsupposedly the final tally from the last weeks airfield strikes.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9CVJyKWwAAtVPK?format=jpg&name=medium)
Used Mi-8 for sale at $3.3 million on internet.   Ka-52 purchased for about 10 million new. So replacement cost in $75 million range (doubt you can get ka52 on internet). Probably 5 to 10 mill more for repairs..  Not bad for 3 atacms.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 22, 2023, 06:53:21 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1716123088679477423
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 22, 2023, 06:59:45 PM
Clearly, they wouldn't have been targeted with ATACMS if they weren't considered valuable.  But I thought helicopters were being proven too vulnerable in the current SAM environment for either side to get that much front-line use out of them?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 22, 2023, 07:20:04 PM
russian Ka-52s have proven pretty effective in hunting armor.
the good news is they dont have many of them and they seem shy about using Havok's.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 22, 2023, 07:24:28 PM
 :Loser:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1716149922200728040
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 24, 2023, 06:19:53 PM
what was once a Msta-b spg.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9PFMzVbsAAebHJ?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 24, 2023, 06:33:43 PM
not the highest but the ending was great!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1716927674227228907
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 24, 2023, 07:22:41 PM
That above pic is horrifying...it's going to take years and tens of billions to rebuild.  :grumpy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 24, 2023, 07:58:57 PM
who cares, they're russian.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 24, 2023, 08:00:52 PM
I mean for the entire war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 24, 2023, 08:03:35 PM
just some realpolitik here but it will be US and Western countries paying to rebuild Ukraine with some form of new Marshall Plan.  not only will we make a fortune doing it, Ukraine will get ground up 21st century infrastructure.  turned out pretty damn well for Germany and Japan.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on October 24, 2023, 08:20:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 24, 2023, 08:03:35 PMjust some realpolitik here but it will be US and Western countries paying to rebuild Ukraine with some form of new Marshall Plan.  not only will we make a fortune doing it, Ukraine will get ground up 21st century infrastructure.  turned out pretty damn well for Germany and Japan.

"We"? What is this "we" nonsense? God damn it you're naive. The war will cost "us" billions, but sure, a handful of corporations will make billions rebuilding what "we" paid, in part, to destroy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 24, 2023, 08:21:40 PM
No doubt - that image above just strikes a chord. Multiply that image x1000 and it really brings the scale into focus. It's easy to get lost in numbers, charts, maps, etc. in something like this war and that image just refocuses everything. For me anyway.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 24, 2023, 08:49:58 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 24, 2023, 08:20:23 PM"We"? What is this "we" nonsense? God damn it you're naive.

we as in the collective west.  I would have guessed that a lawyer could read in context.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 24, 2023, 09:28:19 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 24, 2023, 08:49:58 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on October 24, 2023, 08:20:23 PM"We"? What is this "we" nonsense? God damn it you're naive.

we as in the collective west.  I would have guessed that a lawyer could read in context.

Yeah man, I can't wait for Lockheed Martin's executives to get that big new bonus!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 24, 2023, 10:26:33 PM
Quote from: al_infierno on October 24, 2023, 09:28:19 PMI can't wait

wait? they're already getting them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 25, 2023, 12:47:29 AM
this is some fucked up terrain to have to be fighting over.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1716866878491009440
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 25, 2023, 12:50:43 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 25, 2023, 12:47:29 AMthis is some fucked up terrain to have to be fighting over.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1716866878491009440

I didn't realize the war already expanded to the surface of mars  :beam_up:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 25, 2023, 09:50:29 AM
That is crazy terrain.

Living in the Philippines decades ago, there are entire sections of the landscape that were downwind from Mount Pinatubo that were buried in 5-15 feet of volcanic ash.  When the tropical rains came, there was nowhere for the mud to go, and the ash hardened into dark gray, concrete-like lahar.

There are simply huge lahar fields where nothing grows.  I've never realized you could stand anywhere on the Earth and not see a scrap of vegetation for miles in any direction.  It was very disorienting.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 25, 2023, 10:09:37 AM
so its like Newark  :tongue:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 25, 2023, 10:12:22 AM
^On a really good day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 25, 2023, 12:35:34 PM
I thought Newark had weed hothouses everywhere now?  Lush and fertile, I've heard...     :Hug:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 25, 2023, 12:51:17 PM
Multiple resources have tracked that the Russians initially committed three regular armored brigades to the initial encirclement of Avdiivka. 

Of those Brigades roughly 1 and 1/2 of a Brigade's worth of men and equipment remains.

The Russians are now bolstering the attack with large troop redeployments from other areas of the front.

The UAF seems content to halt their overall operations and dig in for the defense.  The UK MoD tracked that overall Russian losses have spiked by 90% in the last two weeks. 

NSC sources have said that Putin has ordered Avdiivka taken no matter the cost or timetable, with serious consequences faced for even talk of potential failure.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 25, 2023, 01:59:43 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 25, 2023, 12:51:17 PMMultiple resources have tracked that the Russians initially committed three regular armored brigades to the initial encirclement of Avdiivka. 

Of those Brigades roughly 1 and 1/2 of a Brigade's worth of men and equipment remains.

The Russians are now bolstering the attack with large troop redeployments from other areas of the front.

The UAF seems content to halt their overall operations and dig in for the defense.  The UK MoD tracked that overall Russian losses have spiked by 90% in the last two weeks. 

NSC sources have said that Putin has ordered Avdiivka taken no matter the cost or timetable, with serious consequences faced for even talk of potential failure.

Hopefully this becomes a Nivelle Offensive moment for the Russians.

The WWI French 1917 offensive that took heavy losses for little gain. Afterwards, the poilu (ground pounders) decided they weren't going to charge into a meatgrinder anymore and many refused to attack; they would stay in the trenches and defend, but just not attack.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on October 25, 2023, 02:30:24 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on October 25, 2023, 12:51:17 PM...

NSC sources have said that Putin has ordered Avdiivka taken no matter the cost or timetable, with serious consequences faced for even talk of potential failure.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/39/Ave_Caesar_Morituri_te_Salutant.jpg)

Ave, Caesar, morituri te salutant    :sad:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 25, 2023, 03:58:55 PM
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1717140898411114938
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 25, 2023, 04:39:38 PM
^Nice  :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on October 25, 2023, 07:46:09 PM


A little history repeating, as Shirley Bassey would say.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2023, 09:39:24 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1717151162477011056
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2023, 09:47:50 AM
another view from a russian attack last week

https://twitter.com/i/status/1716874455849349206
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on October 26, 2023, 03:35:29 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on October 25, 2023, 02:30:24 PMAve, Caesar, morituri te salutant   :sad:
Thumbs down, I guess.  https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4277768-russian-military-executing-soldiers-who-dont-follow-orders-white-house-says/

Hopefully, this will accelerate mutinies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2023, 05:44:49 PM
roast vatnik

https://twitter.com/i/status/1717427261790445691
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 26, 2023, 06:03:58 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9Zf8OJWwAABQsP?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 26, 2023, 08:41:01 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on October 26, 2023, 03:35:29 PMThumbs down, I guess. 

Thumbs to the side actually.

Despite modern takes, thumbs up was the neutral position.

Thumb down meant bury your sword in the dirt and spare the opponent.

Thumbs side meant kill, which survived in the gesture lexicon as the throat cutting motion.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 27, 2023, 09:53:43 AM
White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby has confirmed the reports of mutiny among Russian troops around Avdiivka.  However, he also confirmed that the Russians have begun immediate execution of any soldiers refusing orders to assault.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 27, 2023, 10:46:08 AM
'Jesus Christ Russia.'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 27, 2023, 04:03:04 PM
Please don't get my hopes up, Russia...

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1717817270070603997
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2023, 04:04:37 PM
I had read that he had a heart attack last week but didnt bother with it for all the obvious reasons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 27, 2023, 04:08:38 PM
The sources claiming Putin is dead are very, very dubious. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2023, 04:09:15 PM
very, it could have simply been one of his doubles.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on October 28, 2023, 12:21:48 AM
I am all for The Death of Stalin, Part II. But the sources are very dubious, indeed. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2023, 10:15:06 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9nZjH6XEAA6bbR?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 29, 2023, 02:34:43 PM
I chuckled way too hard at that sign.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 29, 2023, 04:51:26 PM
^Me too :/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 29, 2023, 05:26:25 PM
Was and were aren't pronouns though, they're past-tense verbs.   :nono2:

Dunno which thread this really belongs in, but in further hypocrisy news check out these pro-Palestine protests in Russia.   :uglystupid2:

https://twitter.com/serhii_rieznik/status/1718702541276422520
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 29, 2023, 05:30:44 PM
^Here's a great post to go along with the above...not sure where to post this either, everything is blurring together.

Anti-Israel mob storms Dagestan airport:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67258332
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 29, 2023, 06:44:35 PM
Leopard II losses

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/28/the-russians-reportedly-knocked-out-two-more-ukrainian-leopard-2-tanks-thats-five-leopard-2-losses-in-a-week/?sh=15706e461926 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/28/the-russians-reportedly-knocked-out-two-more-ukrainian-leopard-2-tanks-thats-five-leopard-2-losses-in-a-week/?sh=15706e461926)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2023, 07:23:37 PM
in the last 2 weeks Ive seen exactly one video of a Leo taking hits.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 29, 2023, 10:04:46 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2023, 07:23:37 PMin the last 2 weeks Ive seen exactly one video of a Leo taking hits.

So far, I think that Forbes has been a good source; up to this point they haven't been prone to click-baity headlines.

But sure, they could have it wrong. I also think they could have it right.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2023, 10:58:39 PM
anythings possible but russians like posting videos on that rare occasion when things go right for them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on October 29, 2023, 11:49:41 PM
It's really hard to tell who's winning battles of attrition until suddenly somebody collapses somewhere.  All you can really conclude prior to that is that both sides are probably miserable.

But if the Ukes are losing so many Leopards, I hope they're able to recover a lot of them and eventually get them back into service.  Of course, when we only hear anecdotes, it's hard to know stories like that factor in. 

All of which gets me back to that "It's really hard to tell who's winning battles of attrition..." observation. 

Coverage of the Ukrainian war has dropped out of the news cycle.  I can't tell if that's because not much of dramatic import is happening, or because the Israel-Gaza conflict is just the new trendy war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on October 30, 2023, 12:08:16 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on October 29, 2023, 11:49:41 PMI can't tell if that's because not much of dramatic import is happening, or because the Israel-Gaza conflict is just the new trendy war.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 30, 2023, 07:31:34 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 29, 2023, 10:58:39 PManythings possible but russians like posting videos on that rare occasion when things go right for them.

The one thing the article does mention that seems to have the 'ring of truth,' is that the Russians are using drone swarms to attack vehicles.

They first try to immobilize, then use incremental attacks to slowly take apart the prey.

If true, it would be the logical next step on the drone tech tree.  The Russians have so far been behind the drone power-curve in this war, but their tech level does seem to be progressing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 30, 2023, 07:39:51 AM
oops double post
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 30, 2023, 07:45:30 AM
the swarm idea isnt new.  if you watch a lot of these you'll start noticing 2 or 3 spotting drones and then 2 or 3 hits depending on the target.  then all that footage is edited together for release.
this was a Navy test 6 years ago with the drones being dropped from flare dispensers.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 31, 2023, 11:35:27 AM
This op-ed from The Hill is kind of interesting, as an illustration of how mind-gamey Russian politics are, using the reports of Putin's death last week for an example:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/reports-of-putin-s-death-might-not-be-greatly-exaggerated/ar-AA1j9zG9?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=56e4e3839ad244bcd6b0c221ef706c61&ei=28

Never heard of the author, but his book topics sound interesting, too.

QuoteAlexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as "Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires" and "Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective."

I'm not sure I agree that he has made his case about this being the start of a power-ploy by elites backing Solovey, but it's a bad sign for Putin that his regime has no real way to solve the problem of death-rumors being deployed against him.

For that matter, if it comes to elites using Solovey as a mouthpiece to spark  regime change, they could be using Professor Motyl, too....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on October 31, 2023, 12:02:52 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 31, 2023, 11:35:27 AMThis op-ed from The Hill is kind of interesting, as an illustration of how mind-gamey Russian politics are, using the reports of Putin's death last week for an example:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/reports-of-putin-s-death-might-not-be-greatly-exaggerated/ar-AA1j9zG9?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=56e4e3839ad244bcd6b0c221ef706c61&ei=28

Never heard of the author, but his book topics sound interesting, too.

QuoteAlexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as "Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires" and "Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective."

I'm not sure I agree that he has made his case about this being the start of a power-ploy by elites backing Solovey, but it's a bad sign for Putin that his regime has no real way to solve the problem of death-rumors being deployed against him.

For that matter, if it comes to elites using Solovey as a mouthpiece to spark  regime change, they could be using Professor Motyl, too....

Head spinning alright. Scary because somebody (Putin or some shadowy cabal) still has their finger(s) on the nuclear trigger. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 31, 2023, 12:29:39 PM
And then things get more weird:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-s-doctors-freed-from-corpse-sitting-duty-as-russian-leader-s-rumored-death-declared-state-secret-report/ar-AA1j6RXE?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=bca79bcb5acf473a91a7fe5ddad4dd52&ei=37

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 31, 2023, 01:05:53 PM
I mean, not to stir the pot here, but...

A bit odd that Putin hasn't just dissuaded this with a public appearance.  He'd been making quite a few of them prior, but his last one was extremely weird with the giant rectangular swimming pool sized table of social distancing. 

And also a bit odd that in just the last few days Lukashenko and a few other backroom channels have been sending out peace talks feelers for the first time since the start of the war (which were more offers to accept surrender). 

I'm not saying the rumors are true, but boy it's making Putin look weak by the day that he's not just squashing them out of hand.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 31, 2023, 01:43:37 PM
From what I gathered, Putin has made appearances, sort of, since Oct 26th last week, which is why the conspiracy theory from Solovey is that a coup is now happening using one of Putin's doubles.

Akira Kurosawa is rolling over in his grave wishing he could update Kagemusha!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 31, 2023, 01:52:53 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 31, 2023, 01:43:37 PMFrom what I gathered, Putin has made appearances, sort of, since Oct 26th last week, which is why the conspiracy theory from Solovey is that a coup is now happening using one of Putin's doubles.

Akira Kurosawa is rolling over in his grave wishing he could update Kagemusha!

By appearance I mean something no one can question.  Just come on TV in a public forum, get the cameras nice and zoomed in and do some ra ra propaganda talk about very current events.  Should be simple enough.

I honestly don't think he's dead, but it sure doesn't seem like he wants anyone up close and personal to him right now.

The peace talks thing is also really interesting.  The last time that back channel inquiries were made the answer from Russia was "We'd love to talk but Putin won't allow it". 

It's an interesting change, although it could be explained by other things leaking from the Russian MoD that the high command is now beginning to accept that Russia is no longer capable of large scale offensive operations and therefore has to accept the reality that it won't be able to seize all of its contested annexed territory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on October 31, 2023, 03:10:35 PM
Or even keep its seized annexes at this rate.

I recall a month or so ago, a functionary in Russia was floating the idea that Russia did recognize Ukraine as a sovereign nation according to a legal something-or-other in the past, which included Crimea; the point being that it was on a ground that Russia could still legally accept. I posted it here on the thread at the time, but danged if I have the energy to go back looking for it!

If I recall the gist correctly, the idea was "we can recognize Crimea as Ukrainian if you don't get into NATO" or something; the implications were a little more detailed than that. Might have been a Stalinesque offer of "hey, we just wanna be friends and help you secure your territory for you as good comradely Slavic-language neighbors!" The argument (not really a proposal yet) was.... suggestively weird?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on October 31, 2023, 03:29:03 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 31, 2023, 03:10:35 PMOr even keep its seized annexes at this rate.

I recall a month or so ago, a functionary in Russia was floating the idea that Russia did recognize Ukraine as a sovereign nation according to a legal something-or-other in the past, which included Crimea; the point being that it was on a ground that Russia could still legally accept. I posted it here on the thread at the time, but danged if I have the energy to go back looking for it!

If I recall the gist correctly, the idea was "we can recognize Crimea as Ukrainian if you don't get into NATO" or something; the implications were a little more detailed than that. Might have been a Stalinesque offer of "hey, we just wanna be friends and help you secure your territory for you as good comradely Slavic-language neighbors!" The argument (not really a proposal yet) was.... suggestively weird?

Russia recognized Ukraine as sovereign in the Budapest Memorandum, as long as Ukraine gave up its nuclear stockpile and agreed to a non-aggression pact with all the former Soviet Republics.  Crimea was part of that agreement. 

The issue at the time was that Crimea itself was not keen on joining Ukraine and did in the 90's try to separate with its own independence movement.  It was in fact from 1991-94 the autonomous and pro-Russian "Republic of Crimea" and there was considerable push and pull between Moscow and Kyiv about which nation it should belong to. 

The issue was decided with the Memorandum which ceded Crimea to Ukraine, without Crimea's agreement or consultation (and arguably against the wishes of 57% of the populace) in return for the security agreements in the memorandum.  Part of the deal was the Black Sea fleet got the rights to use the military docks in Sevastopol. 

Not sure how Russia could give Crimea back on a peace table at this point since they've displaced a lot of the Ukrainian speaking population and it could be very strongly argued that the majority of people in Crimea do not want to be returned. 

I'd imagine at this point the Russian peace offer is currently "Status quo post bellum", which wouldn't be a total victory for Russia but still would be a major one.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on October 31, 2023, 05:04:01 PM
The weirdest thing in the last dozen posts is the mention of Rutgers University-Newark...I got my Masters there 20 years ago while being held against my will in NJ. I would never suspect an international politico talking head to hail from there  :Nerd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 31, 2023, 05:33:25 PM
Happy Halloween!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1719408676665217308
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 31, 2023, 07:29:04 PM
this guy joined the air force

https://twitter.com/i/status/1719406567055884552
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on October 31, 2023, 09:36:34 PM
russians just driving straight in  :huh:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1719306918815023448
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on November 01, 2023, 07:46:20 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 27, 2023, 04:09:15 PMvery, it could have simply been one of his doubles.

If his double had a heart attack, Putin could vanish and still run things, right?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 01, 2023, 11:31:44 AM
Who are you guys fooling?  They've cloned him and there are multiple copies of Putin running the USSR.

He's just like one of those bad guys from The Blood Angels' WH40K series. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on November 01, 2023, 11:36:56 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 01, 2023, 11:31:44 AMWho are you guys fooling?  They've cloned him and there are multiple copies of Putin running the USSR.

He's just like one of those bad guys from The Blood Angels' WH40K series. 

Somehow Putin has returned!

 :emporerslightning:  :emporerslightning:  :emporerslightning:  :emporerslightning:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 01, 2023, 11:59:47 AM
And that was after he fell down into the Zaporzh' reactor core! I guess no one is ever really gone...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 01, 2023, 02:39:07 PM
The psy-op or whatever it is, continues!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-s-death-is-being-celebrated-by-his-former-cronies-kremlin-source-says/ar-AA1jedP1?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=97bffa0158e64c078d82401834b62e44&ei=19

Peskov: the "General SVR" channel is an "absurd information canard"!

SVR channel: Peskov and other cronies are optimistic about Putler's death.

Me: I thought we had a popcorn munching smiley!?!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 01, 2023, 03:13:42 PM
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 02, 2023, 09:35:16 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 01, 2023, 03:13:42 PMhttps://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

airpower.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 02, 2023, 09:40:14 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 01, 2023, 03:13:42 PMhttps://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

It's a provocative article.  I always hesitate to second-guess a general who's on the ground, when a reporter is picking which words to include and which words to omit. 

It also matches the standard "party line" that we've been hearing from the pro-Ukrainian-government media.  That obviously doesn't make it wrong.  He's closer to the front lines than most of us.  Of course, he is still a REMF.

As is so often the case, I think the author builds a straw man of an argument and then skillfully demolishes it.  The harder question might be, "We know that concentrating all our troops in one place for a traditional breaching attack leaves them vulnerable to drones and artillery with massive casualties.  Is there a way that, after we achieve some initial breakthroughs in fortified lines using small-unit tactics, we're then able to concentrate enough units to exploit and expand that gap without taking such massive casualties."

The emphasis on technology as being the savior in this article aligns nicely with the narratives we've heard from Western sources throughout the war.  It also aligns with the economic interests of the various participants of the military-industrial complex. 

I suspect that the more likely winning approach here is not some kind of technological silver bullet or invention, but rather the incremental adoption of tactics and doctrine that allow combatants to succeed in this static environment.  In the meantime, the human cost on both sides is likely to be horrific.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 02, 2023, 09:48:24 AM
Quote from: Windigo on November 02, 2023, 09:35:16 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 01, 2023, 03:13:42 PMhttps://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

airpower.....

Airpower might be the hypothetical answer. 

We certainly know that the UAF have not been able to accomplish what NATO doctrine calls for in terms of suppression or destruction of air defenses.  But it's also unclear whether NATO air forces could ever accomplish that, much less whether Ukraine is capable of ever fielding sufficient air power to do that.

It's also unclear whether more drones, more artillery rounds and more cruise missiles might not be sufficient to paralyze enemy logistics and C&C for 100 miles behind the front line even without the ability to send manned planes over enemy air space.  Drones have made "air superiority" a more ambiguous concept than it ever was in the past.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 02, 2023, 10:58:40 AM
I agree, however the US/UK have experience in cracking formidable multi-layered air defense systems. And the Russians seem to be running out of S400's  :Party:

I am not sure what role the F16s will fill with the Ukraine, and I anticipate they too will be relegated to low risk operations, but they'll have options
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 02, 2023, 01:15:02 PM
I feel 100% confident as an educated guess that NATO (and especially but not exclusively the US) would be able to attain air supremacy and maybe even blue-sky ops against Russia as they currently are. Or even against Russia as of Feb last year.

If we were talking "Flashpoint" game-era Sovs, I'd be a lot more doubtful though we'd give them a hard fight. But that's who we trained to beat, and Putler's Orcs aren't the Soviets. It's more like Rocky training to beat Drago and then instead fighting a street mugger more-than-half hopped up on meth and vodka when the time came.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 02, 2023, 01:45:21 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 02, 2023, 09:48:24 AMBut it's also unclear whether NATO air forces could ever accomplish that,


there is no doubt in my mind that US and/or NATO airpower would wipe the floor with the current russian air force and air defense systems.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 02, 2023, 01:49:53 PM
Lt. Gen. Jonathan Braga, commanding general of US Army Special Operations Command, discusses how the Uks knocked out a corps' worth of troops by sheer information warfare.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-has-taken-17-000-russians-off-the-battlefield-without-firing-a-shot-us-army-special-ops-general-says/ar-AA1jeJgd?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d77f7c8466d14fcbb31f261c68c2b18e&ei=24
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 02, 2023, 01:55:02 PM
Back on the West's air-war capabilities: it's hard to comprehend, maybe technically impossible, just how much of a muchness we've got in position ready to go, and what we can do with it, and what more we could do once the balloon goes up to push out more effect. Numbers are one thing, but tech quality across the board, training, support (lots and lots and LOTS of different kinds of support), innovative troops from the grunts up to the op commanders...

It's almost like trying to explain what's so great about civilization: there's so much it's hard to know where to even start.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 02, 2023, 03:10:10 PM
we have more tankers then the russians have planes. 
let that sink in for a minute.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 03, 2023, 11:49:27 AM
I'm mostly just playing Devil's Advocate here.  I have no doubts that we could blot the Russian Air Force from the sky, even without NATO help (aside from furnishing air bases and logistics).  The question more becomes how thoroughly we could interdict Russian movement on the ground.

Obviously, even limited air superiority deep into Russia would screw with Russian logistics.  Of course, logistics are less important in sustaining a defensive war than an offensive war.  We're all agreed that if Russia tried to invade a NATO country they'd get their ass kicked seven ways from Sunday.

I'm a firm believer that, when we start a new high-intensity conflict, we can only predict about half of what will happen accurately.  I'm familiar with the NATO doctrine for SEAD and DEAD, and I'm familiar with the importance of peeling back different layers (e.g., high-altitude long range stuff first, medium-range stuff second, and short-range lower-altitude stuff last).  I just worry that all of this doctrine is based on a theoretical framework that hasn't changed much since F4s were flying Wild Weasel missions over Vietnam 50 years ago.  The last time we battle-tested that doctrine was against Iraqi air defenses more than 20 years ago.

Among other things, I'm not sure whether Russia could replace air defenses more quickly than we could replace planes.  One thing we've seen about high intensity warfare is that stockpiles run low a lot faster than anyone believed.

We are also used to air superiority being the only way that you can interdict or attack supplies behind enemy lines.  The advent of mediums ranged MLRS systems and deeper-ranged cruise missiles, coupled with the ability of tiny drones to provide real-time targeting, make mounting a successful offense a little harder.

I'm not saying we couldn't win.  I'm just saying that it might be a lot more expensive--in terms of planes and lives--than we anticipate.  I also think an awful lot of armchair generals like ourselves get a hardon for high-tech stuff and we sometimes forget that quantity matters as much as quality.

Again, I'm not saying I'd put a bet on NATO forces being unable to crack Russian air defenses.  I just don't think we can take it for granted.

 :martini:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 03, 2023, 01:20:24 PM
At the moment we've got overwhelming quantity as well as the quality, and I don't think our operational plans ever envisaged simply turning over ground interdiction duties (or even SEAD/DEAD) to air power. Heck, we've got training and protocols for sub-launched sea-to-ground missiles to successfully fill a lot of target packages without even slightly risking pilots and airframes, not even counting sea-surface packages doing the same thing. (Or air standoff sorties doing the same thing.) Add modern arty fire missions on top of that.

Come to think of it, our total effective force disparity vs Russia right now is so large that I'm a little concerned that US/NATO will just take the opportunity to go all in right now (or the near future) and reduce Russia's military to the stone age with a monstrous ShootEx, while the shooting is good.

(And then the plotting side of my mind starts wondering if that wasn't someone's medium-term goal to begin with, and so subtly goaded Putler into setting up a situational excuse to do it. Icebreaking himself, so to speak.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 03, 2023, 02:20:51 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 03, 2023, 11:49:27 AMThe question more becomes how thoroughly we could interdict Russian movement on the ground.


this is precisely what Strike Eagles are for.

to elaborate more.  US training, tactics and equipment has not stood still since the last time we did this in Iraq.  on the equipment side we would be using the most advanced sensors and weapons that are a whole lot better then what we had 20 years ago.  I'll let you kids google info about HARM, JSOW and all the other toys at your leisure.  we would also be using dedicated SEAD/DEAD aircraft like the EA-18G Growler and dedicated F-16 Wild Weasels along with the aforementioned F-15e's.  all of this would be working in conjunction with F-35s.  now throw in all the drones, AWACs, JSTARs, and satellites. russian air defense wouldn't know what the fuck hit them.

it wouldnt be a total cakewalk but it is very very doable and I don't think Im being a fan boy in this assessment.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 03, 2023, 02:23:57 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on November 03, 2023, 11:49:27 AMI also think an awful lot of armchair generals like ourselves get a hardon for high-tech stuff and we sometimes forget that quantity matters as much as quality.


this isnt 1987 and russia no longer has the quantity and, as Ukraine has shown, they really never had the quality.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 03, 2023, 03:20:10 PM
The quality was a lot better back in 1985! Even the quality of their tanks from the 60s and 50s would have been a lot better relatively than what they are now. Certainly their logistic support was relatively better than currently. Training, mission doctrine, CCC... my rough guess is that they were better prepared back then, but I'm less sure about that.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 04, 2023, 01:20:30 AM
ATACMS o'clock

https://twitter.com/i/status/1720516380003316172
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 04, 2023, 09:23:37 AM
To support the argument that Russian air defenses would be dog meat:  I saw in an article today that the Ukrainian sources claim to have destroyed 3 more S-400s in and around Luhansk this week.  While the Ukrainians didn't cite the weapons used, a Russians telegram channel suggested ATACMs were in use, showing wreckage of two detached ATACMs engines in Luhansk.

Of course, it's a bit unclear what it means to "destroy" a system comprised of multiple radar trucks, multiple mobile launchers, and a command vehicle.  Even if the Ukrainian intel is that good, you wouldn't expect them to reveal to Russians exactly how much detail they have.  But the media won't provide that level of mind-numbing detail to readers any ways.

It's another example of how the whiz-bang aspect of technology has received a lot more coverage in Western journalism than hard-headed appraisals of what's happening.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 04, 2023, 11:52:30 AM
^That in a nutshell is the split personality of this war. Hi-tech whiz-bang combined with trench raids. No one could have called that 2 years ago.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 05, 2023, 11:41:48 PM
I'm waiting for the four legged drones carrying claymours to start showing up
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 06, 2023, 01:12:10 PM
Or the spider-drone claymores.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 06, 2023, 06:26:23 PM
both of those are now working the gaza tunnels.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 06, 2023, 06:51:52 PM
the results of last weeks Kerch port strike.   :Party:
russias losing a lot of ships to a country without a navy.   :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-RbdbNWgAAwnGX?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 06, 2023, 07:53:59 PM
some really good cluster footage

https://twitter.com/i/status/1721624222047314060
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 06, 2023, 08:06:35 PM
russian armor gets chewed up at night.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1721659524900123093
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 07, 2023, 11:43:37 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 06, 2023, 06:26:23 PMboth of those are now working the gaza tunnels.

Excellent.  :tophat:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 07, 2023, 02:36:35 PM
Footage from Minority Report should be memed here.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 09, 2023, 05:46:28 PM
things are getting really busy down south and theres almost no reporting of it.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-fkGanXkAA0N8b?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 10, 2023, 08:04:10 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1722905716724249021
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 10, 2023, 02:06:07 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 09, 2023, 05:46:28 PMthings are getting really busy down south and theres almost no reporting of it.

I'd like to think that lack was from a concern for op-sec. But there has been a big push in politics and diplomacy recently to insist that Ukraine's offensive has worse-than-failed and will never amount to anything so make peace already with your genocidal murderers OKAY?! A lot of moral-equivalence positioning as the justification for pressuring Ukraine (not Russia) to accept their rape and move on with their lives for as long as they might still have them.  :tickedoff:

This is aside from any possibly legitimate concerns about strategic, operational, and (perhaps) tactical feasibility.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 10, 2023, 02:07:03 PM
Meanwhile, I guess legit!Putin (Legitlin?) is back in action? I've seen a couple of things presuming so, but haven't had the time or wherewithal to look into it farther.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on November 10, 2023, 02:25:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 09, 2023, 05:46:28 PMthings are getting really busy down south and theres almost no reporting of it.


I've seen a bit.  The Russians diverted an extra 40k troops to the meatgrinder in Adiivka and with that and their offensives in the north they've now gotten to the point where they have all their reserves committed. 

The general thought seems to be that if they can trade 5 to 1 or so casualties they can win through sheer exhaustion, especially as the West as indicated it might draw down aid commitments.  Their attacks aren't so much targeting anything strategically significant as they are just throwing troops at the Ukrainian defenses to achieve a body count.

That's left the Russians fairly thin in the areas where Ukraine still has initiative.  The crossing of the Dniper couldn't be countered by any of the forces that the Russians had shifted on the offensives to the center and north, so they've been having to pull heavily from the seemingly stable Robotyne salient.  The UAF is taking advantage and made a breakthrough north of Verbove and have gained a few kilometers to the east.  That's a lot of movement from when the UAF paused its operations in early September.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 10, 2023, 05:39:47 PM
I dont know why the fact isnt being screamed that most of the military aid money going to Ukraine actually gets spent with American companies in America.  somewhere I saw a pie chart with 63%ish being spent here.  like the funding to ramp up arty production and build new factories.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 12, 2023, 10:01:04 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 10, 2023, 05:39:47 PMI dont know why the fact isnt being screamed that most of the military aid money going to Ukraine actually gets spent with American companies in America.  somewhere I saw a pie chart with 63%ish being spent here.  like the funding to ramp up arty production and build new factories.
and as a bonus...since much of the work is sensitive, only US citizens can perform most of it. So no "off-shoring."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 15, 2023, 10:42:48 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1724893205819462125
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 17, 2023, 09:21:07 AM
It's been a while ...

https://twitter.com/MontayBayBay/status/1725159259015393449
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 17, 2023, 09:24:25 AM
Oh, there were wild boars, too. No one left behind  :justice:

https://twitter.com/MontayBayBay/status/1725273553820409923
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 19, 2023, 03:18:45 PM
Interesting article about the changing nature of electronic warfare on the Ukrainian front as both sides' reliance on drones has skyrocketed. 

I believe it's also the first article ever posted on this forum that includes the sentence "Jamming is akin to blasting heavy metal in the middle of a college lecture."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/19/technology/russia-ukraine-electronic-warfare-drone-signals.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 20, 2023, 05:12:37 AM
Interesting snippets from the early days of war between Poland and Ukraine, with some Belarus intel there as well.

https://twitter.com/FilippDM/status/1724171496552063182
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 21, 2023, 08:13:47 AM
Garry Kasparov not mincing his words. Hear hear.

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1726618516873441661

edit w. thread reader

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1726618516873441661.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 21, 2023, 09:02:58 AM
A Ukranian sniper is claiming a world record shot: 2.36 miles.

the article says:

"Ukraine's Special Forces are claiming the world's longest sniper kill, saying that a Ukrainian soldier took out a Russian combatant from 2.36 miles away, according to Interfax-Ukraine.

It's not possible to verify the kill from the shared footage.

The video shows a grainy outdoor scene, with the targeted area highlighted in a circle, through which two figures can be glimpsed. Three shots then fire, with the two figures dropping down after the second shot. One appears to crawl away.

The sniper involved used the Ukraine-made Volodar Obriyu rifle — translating as "Horizon's Lord" — for the shot, according to Interfax, citing Special Forces."



https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-claims-world-longest-sniper-kill-shot-russia-world-record-2023-11 (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-claims-world-longest-sniper-kill-shot-russia-world-record-2023-11)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 21, 2023, 11:29:28 AM
2.36 miles???? How the hell is that even possible with even sophisticated, precision optics? Ahhhh, over 1000 m/s out past 2 kilometers.

(https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Ukrainian-Horizons-Lord-Anti-Material-Rifle-and-New-12.7x114HL-Cartridge-1.jpg)


Blog describing rifle and cartridge. (https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2021/03/02/ukrainian-horizons-lord-anti-materiel-rifle-and-new-12-7x114hl-cartridge/)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 21, 2023, 02:47:33 PM
That is amazing  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 21, 2023, 03:05:48 PM
Quote from: Windigo on November 21, 2023, 11:29:28 AM2.36 miles???? How the hell is that even possible with even sophisticated, precision optics? Ahhhh, over 1000 m/s out past 2 kilometers.

(https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Ukrainian-Horizons-Lord-Anti-Material-Rifle-and-New-12.7x114HL-Cartridge-1.jpg)


Blog describing rifle and cartridge. (https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2021/03/02/ukrainian-horizons-lord-anti-materiel-rifle-and-new-12-7x114hl-cartridge/)

I normally don't geek-out about small-arms ballistics...but the blog post really got me excited.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 21, 2023, 03:35:12 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 20, 2023, 05:12:37 AMInteresting snippets from the early days of war between Poland and Ukraine, with some Belarus intel there as well.

The disassembled MiGs story was amazing!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 21, 2023, 03:40:09 PM
I really was impressed by that story too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 22, 2023, 01:30:30 PM
after a week of the Dubai arms show russia did not complete one single sale of anything.

 :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 22, 2023, 01:57:02 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 21, 2023, 03:35:12 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on November 20, 2023, 05:12:37 AMInteresting snippets from the early days of war between Poland and Ukraine, with some Belarus intel there as well.

The disassembled MiGs story was amazing!

Quite something, wasn't it! Those who dare do.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on November 22, 2023, 02:40:57 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 22, 2023, 01:30:30 PMafter a week of the Dubai arms show russia did not complete one single sale of anything.

 :ROFL:
Seems like the popular self help book "Nobody Wants Your Sh*t: The Art of Decluttering before you Die" is a must read for rasPutin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 22, 2023, 03:32:15 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 22, 2023, 01:30:30 PMafter a week of the Dubai arms show russia did not complete one single sale of anything.

 :ROFL:

Surprising I will say, the Ka-52's I'd say have accounted for themselves fairly well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 22, 2023, 04:10:22 PM
hard to sell anything if you cant supply spare parts for it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 22, 2023, 04:52:10 PM
Well that is true. But I imagine they would never admit that. It would be like selling cars that can't get serviced or repaired. I am hearing India is having problems with getting parts for their Russian weapons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 22, 2023, 05:31:31 PM
besides, who wants russian junk when our stuff works so much better!
Ukrainian Bradly tearing up a treeline:

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1727448133460799639
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 22, 2023, 06:38:23 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_hwYDGW4AAbTAk?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Staggerwing on November 22, 2023, 10:50:20 PM
^Some real Hammer's Slammers vibe right there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 23, 2023, 12:34:36 PM
If the US just weren't withholding the plasma cannon technology from the Ukrainians, I'm sure they'd already have this war won...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 23, 2023, 12:46:19 PM
"You shall not pass!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on November 25, 2023, 05:02:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 22, 2023, 04:10:22 PMhard to sell anything if you cant supply spare parts for it.
Quote from: Windigo on November 22, 2023, 04:52:10 PMWell that is true. But I imagine they would never admit that. It would be like selling cars that can't get serviced or repaired. I am hearing India is having problems with getting parts for their Russian weapons.

Dear Armenia,
IOU some weapons and stuff.
Love, Mother Russia

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/armenian-pm-says-russia-not-112640480.html

"(Reuters) - Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Friday that Russia had not yet delivered weapons his country had paid for and that talks were underway to try to find a solution, Russian state news agency TASS reported."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 26, 2023, 08:48:34 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1728524875365535829
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 26, 2023, 02:06:28 PM
two years of russian coastal sand trenches washed away  :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_4NSveXAAAnqeX?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 26, 2023, 04:58:20 PM
We need an updated meme putting a Ukrainian armed forces hat on that storm.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on November 27, 2023, 04:11:47 AM
a good day to take out that Crimea bridge :evil: 

smoke screen will not last, and i think 'Soviet' sensors are more effected by the weather then Western, and a stationary large pylon gives a better radar echo then an allmost mach1 traveling Storm Shadow 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 27, 2023, 04:41:44 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 26, 2023, 04:58:20 PMWe need an updated meme putting a Ukrainian armed forces hat on that storm.

 :ThumbsUp:

https://twitter.com/MagnitoFon_UA/status/1729054695938015555
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 27, 2023, 07:33:47 AM
Hahaha perfect
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on November 27, 2023, 07:41:22 AM
Not sure if it's accidental (due to abbreviating the normal meme), but I like how they don't even look suspiciously at Neptune first: they just give him the cap!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 27, 2023, 11:47:32 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 26, 2023, 04:58:20 PMWe need an updated meme putting a Ukrainian armed forces hat on that storm.

Saw one on Twitter.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 27, 2023, 08:34:11 PM
^The same one Crossroads posted above?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on November 28, 2023, 03:34:58 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 27, 2023, 07:41:22 AMNot sure if it's accidental (due to abbreviating the normal meme), but I like how they don't even look suspiciously at Neptune first: they just give him the cap!

I guess if you have a chance to enlist one of the original Olympians slash one of the four major gods to your side, you don't go pontificating about it. Sign here, here, and here, please!  :laugh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 28, 2023, 11:21:45 AM
Quote from: Gusington on November 27, 2023, 08:34:11 PM^The same one Crossroads posted above?

Not exactly, it did have the guys look at Neptune first.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on November 28, 2023, 04:11:37 PM
Interesting article today that looks at the performance of the US and NATO as they've tried to ramp up 155mm shell production.  I've harped on the US' relative tardiness in getting shell production up, but it sounds like they've been much more successful than NATO has.

https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/11/race-make-artillery-shells-us-eu-see-different-results/392288/
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 28, 2023, 05:48:59 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GADc1Z5XwAAyWQr?format=jpg&name=large)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1729613639143784490
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 28, 2023, 06:05:08 PM
Send in the minisubs!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 29, 2023, 08:12:11 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GADGvYNaEAAPR5j?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 29, 2023, 03:32:28 PM
"In a tank factory in the Russian city of Chelyabinsk, there was a severe explosion late Sunday evening, as reported by German news website merkur.de.

According to Russian authorities, the explosion was caused by a fire in a transformer, triggered by a short circuit. However, on the same day in the morning, there was a drone attack on an aircraft factory in the city of Smolensk. The Kyiv Post reports that this was a targeted action."

Going after production.... good
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on November 29, 2023, 03:33:50 PM
Electric transformer with a Ukraine military hat next?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on November 29, 2023, 05:58:32 PM
I haven't seen the one with drones yet
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on November 30, 2023, 04:35:08 AM
kinda like the WW2 filter

https://twitter.com/i/status/1730135895188119707
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on November 30, 2023, 08:49:25 AM
Russians using "DIY" drone jammers on vehicles.

Shall we call them "Cope Jammers"?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-russians-are-bolting-diy-drone-jammers-onto-their-vehicles-the-ukrainians-are-blowing-them-up-with-drones/ar-AA1kKS1E?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=74b92d5f5761462080aa10e49df28b9d&ei=35 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-russians-are-bolting-diy-drone-jammers-onto-their-vehicles-the-ukrainians-are-blowing-them-up-with-drones/ar-AA1kKS1E?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=74b92d5f5761462080aa10e49df28b9d&ei=35)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on November 30, 2023, 06:19:39 PM
https://english.nv.ua/nation/sbu-disables-key-rail-link-between-russia-and-china-in-covert-operation-50372654.html

QuoteThe explosion is another successful special operation of the SBU, sources said, though the special service has not yet commented on the event.
"In fact, this is the only serious railroad route between Russia and China," sources said.
"And now this route, which Russia uses, among other things, for military supplies, is paralyzed."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 01, 2023, 12:38:54 PM
https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1730616792354054654
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 01, 2023, 02:11:50 PM
I joke in here sometimes, but this documentary brought me back down to Earth and reminded me how terrible this all is. Warning, it is graphic.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 01, 2023, 03:09:30 PM
Jeebus. An hour and a half long???
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 01, 2023, 03:15:00 PM
I've watched the first half hour. It is well done so far, very much so...and heart breaking. I broke it into pieces to keep from getting too depressed. Recommended viewing for us all here. We will all take away the same message that, most likely, we've all received in the last year and a half.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Millipede on December 02, 2023, 11:43:21 PM
Quote from: Windigo on December 01, 2023, 03:09:30 PMJeebus. An hour and a half long???

That was exactly my initial reaction but I figured I'd watch a bit of it anyway. I stopped about half way through to brew another cup but other than that I watched the whole thing in one sitting. I know that we all know what is happening on an intellectual level but to have it displayed raw, like Gus said, really brings you down to earth in a stunning fashion.

Thanks for posting the link Gus.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 03, 2023, 03:53:08 AM
What's the title of the video so I can look for it directly? The link provided says Video not available, whether trying from Mac, Win11, of from cell...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 03, 2023, 07:38:04 AM
20 days in mariupol
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 03, 2023, 12:12:03 PM
^Yes that. It is a Frontline production, if that helps.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 03, 2023, 01:54:57 PM
Thanks, I have no idea why the link is a 404 for me.

Oh, that one. Making a lot of waves here as well. As it should.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 03, 2023, 03:38:38 PM
Erm. Ground is never too frozen to dig. Or if it is, use explosives. This is bush league artillery stuff right there.

 :tickedoff:

Edit ha, not a few unhappy fellow gooners in the comment section I see. Now, fix it!

https://twitter.com/Bodbe6/status/1731317063396757983
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 04, 2023, 11:00:30 AM
Quote from: Gusington on December 01, 2023, 03:15:00 PMI've watched the first half hour. It is well done so far, very much so...and heart breaking. I broke it into pieces to keep from getting too depressed. Recommended viewing for us all here. We will all take away the same message that, most likely, we've all received in the last year and a half.

Thanks for pointing it out. I couldn't stop watching once I started. It was horrifying and heart breaking. Yes, a terrible reminder of how this war is tearing apart innocent lives.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 04, 2023, 11:20:11 AM
Different personality types will react differently, of course. If I didn't pause it and take a break I would not have been able to finish it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 04, 2023, 03:13:22 PM
A longer piece on the 'longest sniper shot'; more than 2 miles.

For me, the most interesting thing about it is that the sniper is 58 and white-haired. Just a few years younger than me, and the same hair color... :Party:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-sniper-breaks-cover-to-claim-world-record-hit-of-more-than-2-miles/ar-AA1kYQzl?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=NMTS&cvid=0b0b1ceef809489aa3621a60736715b3&ei=50 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-sniper-breaks-cover-to-claim-world-record-hit-of-more-than-2-miles/ar-AA1kYQzl?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=NMTS&cvid=0b0b1ceef809489aa3621a60736715b3&ei=50)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on December 04, 2023, 06:54:00 PM
Some how the wisdom and patience gained with age seems to bode well for the sniper class, now that you brought up that the dude was at the age most of us retire at.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 04, 2023, 08:44:09 PM
I'd be royally pissed if I was about to retire and my home was invaded - channeling that anger into being a sniper seems to be the more productive thing to do in that situation. Red Dawn style.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 05, 2023, 10:15:21 PM
ERA on a truck? What could go wrong?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/congratulations-russian-army-you-ve-invented-a-self-exploding-truck/ar-AA1l3Cju?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=629ccff6a5c74f3c9cf74a79fb4c278b&ei=14 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/congratulations-russian-army-you-ve-invented-a-self-exploding-truck/ar-AA1l3Cju?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=629ccff6a5c74f3c9cf74a79fb4c278b&ei=14)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 06, 2023, 09:32:07 AM
Maybe the Russians will do us all a favor (again) and defeat themselves.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 06, 2023, 09:59:18 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on November 30, 2023, 06:19:39 PMhttps://english.nv.ua/nation/sbu-disables-key-rail-link-between-russia-and-china-in-covert-operation-50372654.html

QuoteThe explosion is another successful special operation of the SBU, sources said, though the special service has not yet commented on the event.
"In fact, this is the only serious railroad route between Russia and China," sources said.
"And now this route, which Russia uses, among other things, for military supplies, is paralyzed."

Zeihan provides a quick summary of the problems this will cause and why.


Shorter version is: the line was never great to start with, and Russia doesn't have much education to fix it, and what little they have in training and materials are currently working round the clock a whole lot closer to Ukraine to keep Russia in the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 06, 2023, 11:53:22 AM
Interesting stuff, Jason.  I wonder why Russia isn't able to send more goods to China via shipping lanes?  Obviously, trains are cheaper and (usually) faster, but I would think that plenty of shipping companies would be happy to deliver Russian goods to China.

I have no idea if Ukraine has been able to close off the Black Sea to Russian freighters the way that Russia has (largely but not completely) closed off the Black Sea to Ukrainian freighters?  But the Russians could still export through Baltic Sea ports with no fear of Ukrainian intervention.

I also wonder how long before China and Russia will get more (any?) pipeline capacity built between the two countries.  If you want to ship Russian petroleum and LNG to China cheaply, that's really the best way to do it.  Assuming you are able to protect that infrastructure, of course...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 06, 2023, 12:02:05 PM
outside of gas and caviar what is russian sending to china?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 06, 2023, 06:43:45 PM
Russia's problem with shipping is that they have been banned from most of the shipping insurers.  Owners don't want to risk shipping their goods.  Especially through the black sea.  And in the Baltic you never know when one of those gas pipelines will explode as your ship is passing over it.   :evil:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 06, 2023, 06:56:05 PM
more likely to see a russian ship drag its anchor across said gas line.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 06, 2023, 08:19:18 PM
^That happens probably every day all around the world. My employer has an undersea cable that carries electricity and it has been repeatedly taken out by ship anchors despite the presence of signs, buoys, etc.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 06, 2023, 11:53:35 PM
I like the idea that UAF are taking out the rail lines.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on December 07, 2023, 03:14:06 PM
So congress packaged the aid to Ukraine and Israel together and the republicans want the boarder looped in there ?  And this is really what's going to give Putin a win ?  Tbh, I don't see why looping the boarder security in there is necessarily a bad thing so can't that compromise be made ?  Also, how much aid really needs to go to Israel, I mean I'm on their side, but I think they got this against Hamas, moral supports is all maybe.  Also, do the republicans not know how many jobs are gona be created by all the artillery shell production,that's a lot of red state jobs generated from the Ukraine war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 07, 2023, 04:14:06 PM
Quote from: Skoop on December 07, 2023, 03:14:06 PMAlso, how much aid really needs to go to Israel, I mean I'm on their side, but I think they got this against Hamas, moral supports is all maybe.


IIRC there are a number of Israeli defense companies like Raphael that have some of their factories here in the US.

https://www.rafael-usa.com/

another case of foreign aid being spent in the US. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 07, 2023, 08:21:06 PM
The road infrastructure for shipping east of the Urals is nightmarishly bad. (Like literally Yeti bad.  :cool: ) It's gotta go by rail or not worth bothering. There are.... two or maybe three other rail lines into China? But they were in worse shape than the one that got hit, so the effect of taking that one out is multiplied more than would otherwise be expected.

As for shipping things to China from the Baltic, I shudder to imagine the costs involved. You'd almost be there faster trying to pull a Columbus and sailing westward! This has a bearing on China Sea warplans, though: if China invades Taiwan, their relatively-few shipping lanes go away for the duration, the end, period. And they desperately need their shipping lines importing things for various reasons -- a lot more than they need Taiwan!

(There's a theory that any war against Taiwan will be something of a propaganda sham aimed at softening the coming internal collapse of China in the next ten years, by blaming the West for the consequent fall.)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 08, 2023, 11:12:04 AM
Women, children, and elderly, for most part.

https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1733150705005781342
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 08, 2023, 12:54:38 PM
Ukrainians are good, solid, hardworking folk, for the most part. EU can't handle all of them?... send them across the pond.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 08, 2023, 01:42:42 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1732830357928448428
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 08, 2023, 02:26:29 PM
Quote from: Windigo on December 08, 2023, 12:54:38 PMUkrainians are good, solid, hardworking folk, for the most part. EU can't handle all of them?... send them across the pond.

That they are, should have added that. I posted this to show how much Ukraininans have suffered due to Russia's brutal and unprovokoed invasion. Should have said that as well. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 08, 2023, 04:21:27 PM
Damn prophetic...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 10, 2023, 11:56:29 AM
modern art

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GA_xPP7XsAAkktw?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 10, 2023, 03:21:13 PM
Wow.  I wonder what the numbers are of Russian citizens who have fled Russia and are now under a temporary protection order? 

Obviously, the circumstances of their leaving are different, but I have to think that it is disproportionately well-educated Russian men that are leaving.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on December 10, 2023, 04:48:15 PM
It's just so fucking depressing. And what's so infuriating and depressing about it is - why? Why even fucking bother for these last 2 years. If you're not committed, why drag this out.

Putin is sitting rubbing his hands with glee. He knew the West wouldn't hold, and sure enough, here it comes.

Putin has plenty of expendable, cheap war resources - humans. Ukraine does not.

This is the one war since the first Gulf War I actually believed the West should get involved in.

I think the days of standing up to tyranny died with the leaders of WWII.

Not my war...fuck it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on December 10, 2023, 04:57:48 PM
I'm pretty sure they'll get a funding deal done.  If we can keep the Ukrainians supplied with arty shells, they can fight on defensively for a long time.  It's not as dark as it might seem.  But the reality of Ukraine recapturing their land with some sweeping offensive like Kharkov last fall is not happening.

In hind sight, I'm wondering if the zaporizia front was a mistake, like Hitler at Kursk.  Those mobile reserves could do some damage on the avdivka pincers in a counter attack role, plus no mine fields to deal with.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 11, 2023, 08:40:00 AM
I don't believe the losses at Zaporizhzhia were decisive as such. The known losses afaik were more like a battalion tactical group stopped right there, but not more. Then again, who knows, the fog of war is thick.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 11, 2023, 10:53:37 AM
Quote from: Skoop on December 10, 2023, 04:57:48 PMI'm pretty sure they'll get a funding deal done.  If we can keep the Ukrainians supplied with arty shells, they can fight on defensively for a long time.  It's not as dark as it might seem.  But the reality of Ukraine recapturing their land with some sweeping offensive like Kharkov last fall is not happening.

In hind sight, I'm wondering if the zaporizia front was a mistake, like Hitler at Kursk.  Those mobile reserves could do some damage on the avdivka pincers in a counter attack role, plus no mine fields to deal with.

Apparently they did have a successful counterattack there. I was wondering why it wasn't coming sooner....  but all that counts are the results.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 11, 2023, 12:31:54 PM
I don't know that Western resolve is crumbling, so much as just eroding in a couple places.  I think the media, fully recognizing that fear sells, sensationalizes every little vibration in the alliance as a sure sign that support is ending.  This creates doubt in the West and provides encouragement for the Putinista regime, even as it does a great job of selling advertising for the media outlets!  :hair:

I'm NOT arguing that continued vigilance and support from NATO is not needed.  I'm not arguing that the current political kerfluffles aren't disheartening.

I just don't see the short-term stuff as being worth sweating yet.  Seeing democracy in action is like watching sausage being made.  I'm hoping that this is no exception.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 11, 2023, 02:19:24 PM
Zelensky chewed into orban's ass yesterday in Argentina and it was great to see! 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 11, 2023, 04:58:30 PM
Good!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 11, 2023, 05:11:38 PM
he literally had him cornered in the room they were in.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 11, 2023, 06:19:04 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 11, 2023, 05:11:38 PMhe literally had him cornered in the room they were in.

I hope he squeazed him..... HAAARD!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 12, 2023, 12:48:05 PM
 :knuppel2:

https://twitter.com/john_sipher/status/1734627734880420242
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 12, 2023, 03:56:11 PM
Holy crap. If I was a satellite Neighbour to Russia, reluctantly within their sphere of control, I'd be thinking right about now about gaining a bunch more autonomy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 12, 2023, 08:24:31 PM
^Wow...that is darkly amazing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 12, 2023, 09:04:39 PM
Quote from: Windigo on December 12, 2023, 03:56:11 PMHoly crap. If I was a satellite Neighbour to Russia, reluctantly within their sphere of control, I'd be thinking right about now about gaining a bunch more autonomy.

Yep! Just refrain from playing drunken grenade toss while you are on your private jet.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 13, 2023, 05:12:17 PM
russia gonna russia!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1734990284960727487
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 13, 2023, 08:12:12 PM
Looks like they need some armored salt trucks. Would think that Russia of all places was awash in those.

WHOOPSIE
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 14, 2023, 01:03:32 AM
they cant afford salt trucks.
or sober drivers.

it's a good thing they're so fucking stupid.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 14, 2023, 12:13:20 PM
Seems they are taking heavy losses indeed.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1735224074391998689
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: steve58 on December 15, 2023, 10:20:41 AM
Ukraine is at war, so I guess munitions are easily accessible, but damn.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1735627449080197554


Ukrainian councillor detonates three grenades at meeting (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12868355/Terrifying-moment-Ukrainian-politician-lets-three-GRENADES-council-meeting-seriously-wounding-26-people.html)

Live grenade birthday gift kills top aide to Ukraine's military chief (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/live-grenade-birthday-gift-kills-top-aide-to-ukraines-military-chief/)


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 15, 2023, 10:38:55 AM
what the actual fuck!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 15, 2023, 10:59:46 AM
 :shocked: Jesus
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on December 15, 2023, 11:22:47 AM
Something to be said for imparting even a minimum of military knowledge to civilians.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 15, 2023, 11:55:06 AM
This guy had to be unstable mentally.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 18, 2023, 08:14:37 AM
Say what  :shocked: 

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1736734710288535688
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on December 19, 2023, 03:44:28 PM
Austrian Military analysis of Ukrainian Summer Offensive.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 20, 2023, 12:36:15 PM
That's a fairly specific and concrete analysis.  I'm not sure a whole lot of that is new news, but it does suggest a central conclusion.  Whether or not hopes were realistic for the Ukrainian offensive in the Spring/Summer, those hopes were disappointed.

Some of those hopes were predicated on early Ukrainian successes in the first year of the war, some of those hopes were (probably unrealistically) pinned on the limited quantity of Western equipment supplied to the Ukrainians, and some of those hopes were based on an inadequate appreciation for just how difficult concentrated offensive operations can be in the face of battlefield transparency via drones and significant artillery.

It's unclear whether "Kill the Russians faster than they can kill us" will prove more successful for the Ukrainians than it did for the Germans 80 years ago.  On the other hand, the fact that Ukraine retains 80% of its pre-2022 soil and is still standing and fighting hard 22 months after the initial Russian attack is a remarkable success.

I have no idea if there is a good reason for the lagging volume of military supplies these last few months, but I've seen the graphic cited here and it is concerning.  We also have no idea how effective the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure has been in preparing for the now-here winter season. 

The Ukrainian offensive was not successful.  Clearly, neither was the Russian offensive.  At this stage, it's a meat grinder for both sides.  While the meat grinder definitely favored Soviet sensibilities in WW2, it's worth remembering that the Russians and the Ukrainians both fought on the Soviet side in WW2.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 20, 2023, 12:56:18 PM
Putin is counting on the West giving up and throwing our collective hands in the air as he has since the beginning. I hope we don't.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on December 20, 2023, 06:05:05 PM
Quote from: Gusington on December 20, 2023, 12:56:18 PMPutin is counting on the West giving up and throwing our collective hands in the air as he has since the beginning. I hope we don't.
Hear, hear!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on December 20, 2023, 06:07:45 PM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/20/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-front-line-attack-putin-live/

QuoteThe DIU said: "In the Kupyansk direction of the front of the occupiers, rat-bite fever is mowing down en masse.

"As a result, rat-bite fever significantly reduced the fighting ability of the Russian rats."

Just waiting on Putin to declare that cat-scratch fever is the cure.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 20, 2023, 11:50:29 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on December 20, 2023, 06:07:45 PMhttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/20/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-front-line-attack-putin-live/

QuoteThe DIU said: "In the Kupyansk direction of the front of the occupiers, rat-bite fever is mowing down en masse.

"As a result, rat-bite fever significantly reduced the fighting ability of the Russian rats."

Just waiting on Putin to declare that cat-scratch fever is the cure.


the cure to fever is more cow bell.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on December 21, 2023, 11:13:35 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on December 20, 2023, 06:07:45 PMhttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/20/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-front-line-attack-putin-live/

QuoteThe DIU said: "In the Kupyansk direction of the front of the occupiers, rat-bite fever is mowing down en masse.

"As a result, rat-bite fever significantly reduced the fighting ability of the Russian rats."

Just waiting on Putin to declare that cat-scratch fever is the cure.

I wonder if Terrible Ted has weighed in on Putin's side in this whole struggle? 

The dude was better as a guitarist than a political commentator, I'll admit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 21, 2023, 11:29:39 AM
Just because you are very good at one thing doesn't make you good at other things - some famous basketball player's sojourn into baseball clearly demonstrated that.

It's like all those wanna be lawyers and climatologists.... :ROFL: 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 22, 2023, 07:27:11 AM
WSJ has some interesting analysis of Prigo's death. Maybe there wasn't a drunken game of hand-grenade toss on the airplane after all... :undecided:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-putin-s-right-hand-man-took-out-prigozhin/ar-AA1lSKbd?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=NMTS&cvid=aaf59b4212624b4d90a307f9677479fd&ei=43 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-putin-s-right-hand-man-took-out-prigozhin/ar-AA1lSKbd?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=NMTS&cvid=aaf59b4212624b4d90a307f9677479fd&ei=43)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2023, 11:50:35 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1738291431700083057
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on December 23, 2023, 01:45:03 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2023, 11:50:35 AMhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1738291431700083057
Trot softly and carry a big stick!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 24, 2023, 07:22:54 AM
Merry Christmas, everyone, and Support Ukraine More  :tophat:

https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1738890135498805692
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 26, 2023, 10:09:24 AM
Merry Christmas

https://twitter.com/i/status/1739595465530683833
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 26, 2023, 10:23:41 AM
ya.... thats not going to buff out.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GCRKOSTW8AAkmqJ?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on December 26, 2023, 01:19:46 PM
Just a flesh wound  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 26, 2023, 02:48:19 PM
Holy crap.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on December 26, 2023, 04:44:27 PM
That is the epitome of being "Burned to the Waterline." Definitely tops the USS Belknap (CG-26)

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/USS_Belknap_collision_damage.jpg)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 26, 2023, 04:54:27 PM
I do think its one of the prettier explosions of the war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on December 26, 2023, 05:28:59 PM
Man, even Godzilla would be impressed with that flattening!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on December 26, 2023, 09:18:58 PM
It's amazing to me that the Russians even keep vessels that large anywhere within the theoretical range of Ukraine's missiles. 

Is it because they don't have a choice?

I took a quick look at Google maps / satellite view. To my untrained eye, there are only a few port facilities down the eastern coast of the Black Sea. Sochi is probably no good, because they navy wouldn't be allowed to displace all those yachts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 26, 2023, 10:45:40 PM
It definitely was a giant sized kaboom. Follow up picks showed it had rolled and had next to nothing for superstructure. The loss of a large landing craft and the contents have got to hurt - russian logistics must look like a stadium sized twister game.. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 27, 2023, 12:01:47 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GCSf-pnWQAEcNTJ?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on December 27, 2023, 01:19:00 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 27, 2023, 12:01:47 AM(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GCSf-pnWQAEcNTJ?format=jpg&name=large)

That is an impressive list. I am thinking that a RSR reboot would be a far shorter novel.

Russia fails its' surprise first strike.
None of the new shit works as intended.
NATO's 'everything and the kitchen sink' air response pounds the bastards into twine and tin can communications.
Poland and Germany compete to see who can counter attack the fiercest.
Big pause after the first week and a bit while NATO waits for resupply.
Finland says, "Oh what the fuck" and opens up another front.
All over in 1-2 months
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 27, 2023, 02:12:52 PM
seems theres some collateral damage to another ship at the bottom.

before:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GCXMR1uWsAArzhB?format=jpg&name=large)

after:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GCXMR1oWQAA2fOG?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 27, 2023, 02:29:00 PM
its what puts a smile on my face  :Dreamer:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GCTSsbeWAAAEj5h?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 27, 2023, 02:55:24 PM
^I do not understand that post.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 27, 2023, 02:59:56 PM
hes a russian blogger that started by asking Americans if they slept well at night knowing their weapons were killing russians.
the response has been an overwhelming yes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on December 27, 2023, 03:39:59 PM
That's what I thought but then I was saying to myself 'The US, NATO and the West did not invite Russian troops into Ukraine to be slaughtered. Putin did.'

That blogger must have forgotten that he is the enemy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on December 28, 2023, 09:32:35 AM
while local advances have been made over the last week the russian losses have been... impressive.
as usual the tweet exists.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1740356879627452676
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 01, 2024, 02:16:20 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1741848689105322267
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 04, 2024, 04:28:21 PM
In the 'balls of steel' department, a Ukrainian saboteur(s) set an SU-34 on fire at a Russian airfield located 600 miles behind Russian lines.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-ukrainian-saboteur-traveled-600-miles-to-a-snowy-russian-airfield-and-in-the-dead-of-night-lit-a-russian-sukhoi-fighter-bomber-on-fire/ar-AA1mtAN0?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=cefb7f4d0a5044beaec4b5cfa22f9a19&ei=14 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-ukrainian-saboteur-traveled-600-miles-to-a-snowy-russian-airfield-and-in-the-dead-of-night-lit-a-russian-sukhoi-fighter-bomber-on-fire/ar-AA1mtAN0?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=cefb7f4d0a5044beaec4b5cfa22f9a19&ei=14)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: UN Weapons Inspector on January 07, 2024, 04:13:48 AM
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/d90QqLOghGU?si=n2LGts1P8e2MSr73" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 08, 2024, 05:25:50 PM
scratch one Tos

https://twitter.com/i/status/1744352389031665976
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 08, 2024, 05:45:59 PM
Saw some interesting videos today featuring Russian family members trying to take trips to areas as close to the front as possible to find out what's happening to their family they hadn't heard from. 

It went a little in depth and confirmed, with the airing of a few intercepts, that the Russians haven't been sending any casualty information back to family for some time, over a year at least.

Russian standing orders are to leave the dead where they are shot and not to try to collect tags.  Dead are being listed as missing, captured or more often families are being told they're likely on secure duty hence no communication. 

Even the Russian MOD likely has no idea how many casualties they've sustained as officers are hesitant to provide true numbers up the line and simply aren't logging a lot of losses.   The only dead they're logging are officers and some nco's that they're putting in for propaganda and decorations.

A whole generation's getting ground facelessly to dust.  It's possible we'll never know the true scale of what Russia has expended.  Their families aren't even getting the decency of the ability to know what happened to their loved ones, just that they left and after the war they won't be coming home.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 08, 2024, 08:49:46 PM
That is horrible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 09, 2024, 11:15:45 AM
I echo your sentiment Gus. Truly Russian leadership has an obscenely high level of moral deficit. We are literally living through the time of Russian empire decline through leadership corruption and self-interest. A power is crumbling, in Rome-like fashion.

I remind myself that the west has more than its fair share of filthy rich, some would sooner see the world burn than give up even a little bit.

 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 09, 2024, 01:32:14 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 08, 2024, 08:49:46 PMThat is horrible.

Sure isn't going to help the Russian demographic collapse.

Even leaving aside the compounded human tragedy on both sides, it's increasingly possible that even if Russia took over all ("the") Ukraine, they won't have staved off their 10-year collapse clock. It might be more like 5-years by then.

And less than 5-years if they essentially fail to gain anything useful to Russia as a whole.

Securing the Donbass capitals by seizing control of the western hinterlands as a buffer zone, was never going to help Russia as a whole, even if that's spun as a political victory; which is why they were going all in for the whole national territory control, from the beginning. At this point, I'm not sure keeping a land-line of supply to western Crimea, as well as keeping all Crimea, would help Russia as whole enough to offset the catastrophic extra population (and cultural) damage to Russia. They're about to be equivalent to a cargo cult with some randomly functioning nukes.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 09, 2024, 03:30:14 PM
It wouldn't be so bad if they actually gave a shit about their country and countrymen/women. But it's soulless oligarchs running things over there. Like serial killers, they'll only have remorse when they are finally busted.

Kind of like the people on the Epstein list I guess.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 09, 2024, 03:34:46 PM
Quote from: Windigo on January 09, 2024, 03:30:14 PMBut it's soulless oligarchs running things over there.

I prefer the term Kleptocrat.  Oligarch implies someone has actual power beyond Putin. 

The last "oligarch" that thought he was powerful ended up "juggling a hand grenade" in an airplane.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 09, 2024, 05:34:08 PM
Kleptocrat it is then. I like that term better.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 09, 2024, 10:15:27 PM
I'm curious what is Russia now will be in 25-50 years.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 10, 2024, 12:49:47 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDchKDpW4AAcZLg?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 10, 2024, 01:47:47 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 09, 2024, 10:15:27 PMI'm curious what is Russia now will be in 25-50 years.

Ask and you shall recieve!

I'll give you the cliffs notes.  A restored Russian Empire with its former territories all incorporated that becomes the world "mecca" of traditional values, a broken Europe firmly in Russia's sphere of influence outside of the smaller states that will become backwater "caliphates", A Russian/Chinese hegemony over world power, and a destroyed United States and Canada broken up upon ethnic lines.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 10, 2024, 02:15:56 PM
 :huh:

That recap was much darker than I was hoping for. Dare I watch the video or will I spasm?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 10, 2024, 02:19:59 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2024, 02:15:56 PM:huh:

That recap was much darker than I was hoping for. Dare I watch the video or will I spasm?

It's pretty stomach churning and blood vessel bursting.  There's even a map of the future new world order.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 10, 2024, 02:26:55 PM
I probably can't handle that right now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 10, 2024, 02:46:33 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2024, 02:26:55 PMI probably can't handle that right now.

It's pretty bad and the thing that is concerning is the beginning of the ethnic rhetoric creeping into Russian propaganda.  It's always been there but it's getting stronger and starting to become a central point in Russian rhetoric.  There's a heaping helping of anti-Semitism and what could only be described as White Supremacy in what he very calmly is describing. 

He frames it with the US as well, predicting that White Christian America will eventually purge the ethnic undesirables and align with Russia.  He names the political and media leaders that will champion that rise, but I'm not going to open that can of worms in the forum.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 10, 2024, 02:50:31 PM
^Thank you.

Russia: the new Germany.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 10, 2024, 05:28:21 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2024, 02:26:55 PMI probably can't handle that right now.

don't get your panties all bunched up Gus.  its russian wish list propaganda that won't come close to happening.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 10, 2024, 05:51:42 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 10, 2024, 05:28:21 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2024, 02:26:55 PMI probably can't handle that right now.

don't get your panties all bunched up Gus.  its russian wish list propaganda that won't come close to happening.

and the bi-partisan tribalism going on in your country is not being inflamed by foreign actors? *cough* bullshit
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 10, 2024, 06:47:44 PM
it is but I actually have some faith left in this society to sort itself out.

naive I know.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 10, 2024, 06:53:36 PM
let me visually represent fucking russias hopes and dreams:
as usual the link works...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1745208253309411819
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 11, 2024, 12:47:53 PM
"Hmm...this page doesn't exist. Try searching for something else."

Maybe got taken down? I tried accessing it three times.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 11, 2024, 01:26:42 PM
dunno what to say, it comes right up for me.
its about the fourth video down.

https://twitter.com/worldonalert
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 11, 2024, 03:00:14 PM
You probably need a twitter account.  I don't have one so I never get to view the ones that show an error on this site.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 11, 2024, 03:56:12 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 10, 2024, 06:47:44 PMit is but I actually have some faith left in this society to sort itself out.

naive I know.

no further comment
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 11, 2024, 04:29:42 PM
being an optimist while being armed for pessimism.  :twirl:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 11, 2024, 05:41:23 PM
well that's a bit better and more realistic
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 11, 2024, 06:16:51 PM
I come in peace  :intrepidphasers:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 12, 2024, 08:14:07 PM
 :RockOn:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1745945349187854737
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 13, 2024, 03:49:44 AM
Not sure if true, but why not.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1746061594449297479
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 13, 2024, 07:47:14 AM
thats quite a fire!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDtb0_9WEAA26eC?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDtb0_7WAAAVnKw?format=jpg&name=large)

 :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 13, 2024, 09:29:33 AM
Hopefully it's blowing further into Russia.  I'm sure there are no toxic chemicals in that smoke :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 13, 2024, 03:11:01 PM
Holy crap  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 13, 2024, 04:59:29 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 11, 2024, 01:26:42 PMdunno what to say, it comes right up for me.
its about the fourth video down.

https://twitter.com/worldonalert

Under the "media" tab? If so, that sort of explains it: that tab doesn't work for me because (it says) I don't have an X/Twitter account.

I say "sort of explains", because I usually have no trouble watching videos that you link to from there. (I used to link some myself last year.) Sometimes the forum even previews the videos here for me, although I don't know why there's a difference about that on one computer vs another. (It isn't previewing on the forum now, and I'm on my most mox-level up-to-date rig. {shrug})

For example, I can watch the videos linked at Andrew Perpetua, with the Bradley god-moding the orks, just fine.

(Spoiler for those who haven't watched it yet. If someone had told me five years ago that a T-90 would lose to a Bradley, easily, after taking the first shot, I would have asked which version of CMx2 they're playing because obviously there must be bugs in the code...)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 14, 2024, 10:24:04 PM
so the rumor is that Ukraine bagged a A-50 AWAC and a Il-22 over the Sea of Azov today.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 15, 2024, 01:37:08 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 14, 2024, 10:24:04 PMso the rumor is that Ukraine bagged a A-50 AWAC and a Il-22 over the Sea of Azov today.....

No no, not at all, it is being used for CAS for Moskva.

https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1746646598359068877
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 15, 2024, 09:56:02 AM
The A-50 is quite the overweight bumblebee, damn.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 15, 2024, 10:42:58 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 15, 2024, 09:56:02 AMThe A-50 is quite the overweight bumblebee, damn.
It takes a lot of vacuum tubes to process the radar signal. :grin:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/14/ukrainian-sources-we-just-shot-down-two-of-russias-best-command-planes/?sh=24cb01123adf
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 15, 2024, 04:42:22 PM
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/l3vR6aasfs0Ae3qdG/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e475vre1e1jx6u4a4eb887grx5lsaj04dlienb8kqi2&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 17, 2024, 04:46:20 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1747723647555416304
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 17, 2024, 09:16:09 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1747744947091001556
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on January 19, 2024, 11:41:45 AM
Some analysis

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on January 19, 2024, 12:04:04 PM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on January 19, 2024, 11:41:45 AMSome analysis


I would have never predicted the list of hardware heroes in this war:

-Turkish Bayraktar drone
-US HIMARS
-German Flak Panzer Gepard SPAA
-US Bradley APC
-Australian Bushmaster (protected mobility vehicle)
-US M777 155mm artillery

of course there are some others that were predictable:

-German Leo 2
-US Patriot
-UK NLAW ATGM
-US Javelin ATGM

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 19, 2024, 12:10:10 PM
and all of those are our left over shit.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 19, 2024, 12:56:49 PM
I had been thinking the bradley shell slid along the front of the T90 and detonated all of its reactive armor at once.  Not sure what reactive armor looks like when it goes off.  The smoke launcher makes more sense.  Pretty sure the T90 is out of action for a while.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on January 19, 2024, 01:00:53 PM
Surprised no one has posted about the oil fire in Bryansk region.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68029235

I find this a hilarious statement:
"The Bryansk governor said the drone was intercepted near the town of Klintsy and its explosives then fell on the oil depot." 

It's like saying we successfully shot down the drone and it accidently fell on its target and destroyed it.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 19, 2024, 01:18:00 PM
russian infrastructure problems.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1748121905490751899
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 19, 2024, 01:20:36 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on January 19, 2024, 12:56:49 PMNot sure what reactive armor looks like when it goes off. 

the big frontal explosion is the ERA cooking off.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 19, 2024, 11:08:39 PM
So what's the tally of T-90s now? How many remain? Someone was keeping track of that a while back.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 19, 2024, 11:11:27 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 19, 2024, 11:08:39 PMSo what's the tally of T-90s now? How many remain? Someone was keeping track of that a while back.

Russia has been able to clear the bottlenecks on T-90 production so they've been able to replace at least some losses.

Estimates are that pre-war Russia had about 600-700 operational T-90's.

Today after losses and replacement Russia is operating about 350-400.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on January 19, 2024, 11:20:50 PM
Man imagine what the US or another major NATO power could do with seven hundred T-90s. Even when they aren't as good as our armor.

Sure, you couldn't zerg rush them, but US/NATO would integrate them properly with all types of support.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on January 19, 2024, 11:27:18 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on January 19, 2024, 11:20:50 PMMan imagine what the US or another major NATO power could do with seven hundred T-90s. Even when they aren't as good as our armor.

Sure, you couldn't zerg rush them, but US/NATO would integrate them properly with all types of support.

Well, that was supposed to be Russian doctrine. 

T-90's are their best tanks but not their front liners.  They and T-80U's are supposed to be exploit tanks after the hordes of various classes of T-72's get used.

Same idea in the 70's when the T-64 was held back and the T-62 and T-72 was supposed to do the hard work to open the more advanced 64's up.

Their entire philosophy of how to use MBT's is different from ours.  The T-14 was supposed to be the tank that adopted the NATO standard and it's way behind schedule.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 19, 2024, 11:55:06 PM
dont know when this was last updated:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 20, 2024, 03:43:01 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1746803670140817767
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 21, 2024, 03:46:41 PM
Trench rats and mice plague both sides of the frontlines:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/21/europe/rats-and-mice-swarm-trenches-in-ukraine-in-grisly-echo-of-world-war-i/index.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 22, 2024, 03:56:31 AM
Lessons learnt. Quite an interesting read, with details on post #2. TL;DR:  :buck2:

https://twitter.com/TheUCS473/status/1749161319217893383
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 22, 2024, 11:28:35 PM
north korean ammo aint working to well.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEdPdNxXkAALgqq?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on January 23, 2024, 12:35:14 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 22, 2024, 11:28:35 PMnorth korean ammo aint working to well.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEdPdNxXkAALgqq?format=jpg&name=large)

You get what you pay for as my dear old dad always told me.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on January 23, 2024, 08:53:24 AM
Good. And ouch.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2024, 09:11:02 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1748672030507937842
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 27, 2024, 05:36:37 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1751338405739258011
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 28, 2024, 03:38:37 PM
they have all the muds....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1751690256104013864
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on January 29, 2024, 01:43:09 PM
That tank on tank seems to be not terribly far apart, so I am wondering why they call it precise.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on January 31, 2024, 06:37:38 AM
Don't know about that, but there deffo seems to be less bots around. Anyone else seeing this?

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1752615695395766335
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on January 31, 2024, 07:51:20 AM
Quote from: Windigo on January 29, 2024, 01:43:09 PMThat tank on tank seems to be not terribly far apart, so I am wondering why they call it precise.
I guess "precise" isn't dependant on how far away you are. If it's precise, it hits, if it's not precise, it misses...regardless of distance  :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 01, 2024, 07:26:05 AM
Another submersible in the making?

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1753014929706094815
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 01, 2024, 08:37:05 AM
^ Seems legit, good riddance. Score board so far:

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1753033435512213929
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 01, 2024, 08:42:20 AM
 :ROFL:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFP1bNGWEAA-7jX?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 01, 2024, 08:58:09 AM
Can we have some Celine Dion music, please. You know which one I mean  :Dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 01, 2024, 09:38:31 AM
so many ways I can go with this

(https://image.cagle.com/260820/750/260820.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 01, 2024, 09:39:27 AM
(https://image.cagle.com/157361/750/157361.png)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on February 01, 2024, 09:57:37 AM
It appears to be at least 3 hits on a  Tarantul-class corvette from suicide boat drones: two hits on the port side amidships and one in the stern.  It looks like they tried to drive the  boat that made the second amidships hit into the hole made by the first amidship hit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 02, 2024, 09:08:49 PM
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 03, 2024, 05:45:37 AM
Putin: Let us break Ukraine by destroying their civil infrastructure.
Ukraine: Hold my proverbial  :beermug[1]:

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1753693456977846570
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 04, 2024, 03:20:36 PM
When you now know that Uk drones can reach as far as Krasnodar, and you can't afford to build more decoys, much less are capable of building new SU-30s...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1ai27bu/more_poor_aircraft_decoys_that_were_spotted_at_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Hat-tip to the Enforcer.

The comments in that thread are top-tier. "Stagnant Russian culture hasn't been able to produce any decent painters since Kandinsky."

"why would you put real aircraft a few metres from aircraft decoys, however bad they are? I mean if the decoy is bomb you're gonna lose two real aircraft..."

"Ssshhhhttt....!"

"We are lucky they're so fucking dumb"

"To park real jets above prevents the color from getting bleeched by the sun."

"they got €10000 for decoys, baught paint for $200 and kept the change."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 04, 2024, 05:15:38 PM
 :ROFL:

Quote from: JasonPratt on February 04, 2024, 03:20:36 PM"Stagnant Russian culture hasn't been able to produce any decent painters since Kandinsky."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 04, 2024, 05:17:54 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1754229870782030276
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 05, 2024, 08:52:33 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1736888375892713904
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 05, 2024, 10:46:56 PM
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russias-adaptation-advantage
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 06, 2024, 11:02:43 AM
Tick tock

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1754886136323883380
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2024, 01:06:08 PM
russia ramps up production of its newest tank!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFqthHxW8AA2Fqk?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2024, 01:09:06 PM
great air defense ya got there.....   :doh:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1754897963820646729
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 06, 2024, 03:23:22 PM
Setting aside war porn like it were footage from a video game, it sounds like Russia is slowly making incremental--if costly--gains around Bakhmut.  Newsweek has consistently been one of the more pro-Ukraine media sources out there, which makes me take those reports a bit more seriously than I might otherwise.

Does anybody have more specific/current info than this?

Newsweek:  Avdiika is about to Fall (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-avdiivka-fall-donetsk-1866925)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2024, 03:38:30 PM
coming soon....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFrVlbaXwAAT88S?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2024, 03:40:07 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 06, 2024, 03:23:22 PMit sounds like Russia is slowly making incremental--if costly--gains around Bakhmut.  Newsweek has consistently been one of the more pro-Ukraine media sources out there, which makes me take those reports a bit more seriously than I might otherwise

the people dicking around in Congress with Ukraine aid are the problem here.  the west was well on the way to breaking the russians for pennies on the dollar and these fuckwits are throwing it away.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 06, 2024, 05:00:45 PM
It's when the people we disagree with happen to be assured fuckwits that it becomes all the more important for us to cast a skeptical eye on our own views and beliefs, even as we do all that we can to oppose aforementioned asshats.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2024, 08:49:01 PM
ya, those ERA blocks do wonders......  :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1755293312062251159
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2024, 09:45:29 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFwI7n8W0AA_BL4?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2024, 10:20:22 PM
isnt it annoying when your ICBM factory explodes 1300 km behind the front?

 :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1755286828972658964
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 07, 2024, 10:48:54 PM
I came here specifically to say, "That's a nice ICBM factory you've got there. Would be a shame if..."

Edited to add: oh and a lot of their handheld weapons made in that area, too, like the famous AKs.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 07, 2024, 10:49:28 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2024, 03:38:30 PMcoming soon....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFrVlbaXwAAT88S?format=jpg&name=small)

Lots of bingos coming on that card. Which line gets filled in first, man who knows...
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 07, 2024, 10:53:36 PM
Some more footage angles of the rocket factory going up:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1755289628402163909?s=20

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1ala64x/the_votkinsk_intercontinental_ballistic_missile/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on February 07, 2024, 10:59:08 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on February 06, 2024, 11:02:43 AMTick tock

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1754886136323883380


While the refineries are certainly legit targets, Russia's situation with oil/gas is even worse than that. The main transfer nodes are falling apart from natural causes, for example, with no one really capable of repairing them. And there are only a handful of those.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2024, 11:47:23 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 07, 2024, 10:49:28 PMLots of bingos coming on that card. Which line gets filled in first, man who knows...

the EU might sanction him.   :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 08, 2024, 11:22:14 AM
Between the weapons factories and the O&G facilities going kaboom, critical Russian infrastructure is not going to survive this war.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on February 08, 2024, 11:27:48 AM
Putin is going to need a coal fired locomotive to get around soon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 08, 2024, 12:52:23 PM
Well, looks like the rumors of Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi being at odds with how last years war effort was conducted were true.  Zaluzhnyi's been fired.

Zelensky's promoting Oleksandr Syrskyi to take his place.  Syrskyi's been a lot closer to the action during the war, organizing the defense of Kyiv and was the architect of the Kharkiv counterattack. He also has been commanding the active defense of Bakhmut and has generally been the one favoring and drawing resources for a more northern strategy rather than grinding away towards Crimea.

Not really surprised at this.  Zaluzhnyi didn't seem to really be able to adjust to the changing realities on the battlefield.  Syrskyi's been more active and has much larger first hand experience of the realities of the front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 08, 2024, 12:57:13 PM
I hope that bodes well for the battlefield performance of the Ukrainian army.  By the time someone is at the top of the army, does a guy need to really understand the situation on the battlefield?

In my experience, the best managers (and the best generals) know how to surround themselves with talented people who can work together to bring about results at the front line.  It doesn't exactly matter whether that front line is customer service calls in a call center, sales meetings with prospective clients, or operations at the battlefront.

I'm not saying that having a supreme commander who is a consummate REMF is a good thing.  I just don't know that anybody ever talked about Eisenhower's abilities as a battlefield commander.  Then again, Eisenhower had a larger army to supervise (even if his total front was probably smaller).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 08, 2024, 01:01:52 PM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 08, 2024, 12:57:13 PMIn my experience, the best managers (and the best generals) know how to surround themselves with talented people who can work together to bring about results at the front line.  It doesn't exactly matter whether that front line is customer service calls in a call center, sales meetings with prospective clients, or operations at the battlefront.


That's not really how old Red Army command doctrine works and unfortunately Ukraine suffers from the same institutional problems with its Officer Corps as Russia does.  Ukraine's upper command is still made up almost entirely of products of Red Army training and doctrine.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 08, 2024, 05:53:49 PM
I think that Zaluzhnyi was the right guy for that phase of the war.  the war for Ukraine needs to move on from mostly defensive operations.  I think this is a good time to do it during the winter and mud season.  we'll see what happens.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 08, 2024, 06:05:52 PM
the state of russian tracks.....   :facepalm_picard:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF2XFVpWwAERtre?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF2XFVrWQAATeK2?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 08, 2024, 06:58:36 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 08, 2024, 12:52:23 PMWell, looks like the rumors of Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi being at odds with how last years war effort was conducted were true.  Zaluzhnyi's been fired.

Zelensky's promoting Oleksandr Syrskyi to take his place.  Syrskyi's been a lot closer to the action during the war, organizing the defense of Kyiv and was the architect of the Kharkiv counterattack. He also has been commanding the active defense of Bakhmut and has generally been the one favoring and drawing resources for a more northern strategy rather than grinding away towards Crimea.

Not really surprised at this.  Zaluzhnyi didn't seem to really be able to adjust to the changing realities on the battlefield.  Syrskyi's been more active and has much larger first hand experience of the realities of the front.

I was always wondering why they didn't go all in with a northern offensive versus right into the teeth of heavily defended zaporizia in the south.  I was always under the impression that logistics train stopped the 2022 kharkov offensive, not the russians, so it seemed like the best place to keep attacking.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 08, 2024, 07:30:40 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 08, 2024, 06:58:36 PMI was always wondering why they didn't go all in with a northern offensive versus right into the teeth of heavily defended zaporizia in the south.  I was always under the impression that logistics train stopped the 2022 kharkov offensive, not the russians, so it seemed like the best place to keep attacking.

That came primarily from NATO pressure that Zaluzhnyi caved to.  From my people in the know, there was very much a suggestion of "We're giving you all this gear, but you will need to use it 'right' in return". 

Syrskyi kept his operations going in the Bakhmut area even with the main effort being concentrated in the south.  That said to me at the time there was some disagreement in the Ukrainian MOD about where the full pressure of the attack went, and NATO generals later took the UMOD to task for not being "all in" in the south.

For my part on the sidelines, I always felt the north was the best strategy as well.  The entire world and western media telegraphed where the blow would fall, and the Russians believed it.  If they'd turned that into a feint and instead hit them somewhere else, that could've made a much more real dent with fewer losses. 

It's the difference in a Chess strategy vs a Go strategy.  NATO and Zaluzhnyi wanted the checkmate, where there would've been more benefit to a different, less sexy but potentially better long term operation.  Cutting the railheads that are supplying the Donbass would've been much more beneficial today, and they did kind of squander the opportunity as Russia has now fortified that area too.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 08, 2024, 11:34:01 PM
I won't be around to see it but I wonder what how history will look back on this era from 50 years perspective.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 09, 2024, 01:08:16 AM
It's looking more like the winter war lately. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 09, 2024, 03:08:28 AM
Quote from: Skoop on February 09, 2024, 01:08:16 AMIt's looking more like the winter war lately. 

November 1939 to January 1940 Soviet Union made incremental advance supported by heavy artillery and willingness to absorb massive human losses.

On February 1940, Finland ran out of artillery shells, and the front line started to collapse.

On March 1940, should the war have gone just two or three weeks longer, collapse would have been total and irreversible. Instead, with the talk of an Anglo-French intervention being possible (it wasn't), Stalin blinked.

Let us hope history not repeating itself  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 10, 2024, 02:43:20 AM
So what did you guys think of the Putin interview? I for one was very glad to see Mr Putin finally offered a chance to present his view on things here. With compliments to ms Truckerson.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1756029529041093073
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 10, 2024, 09:50:18 AM
 :bsmeter:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF-6cMEXoAAcDDz?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 10, 2024, 12:44:22 PM
Some 21st century Russian myth with your lunch, perhaps?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68255302
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 10, 2024, 01:01:32 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 10, 2024, 12:44:22 PMSome 21st century Russian myth with your lunch, perhaps?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68255302

Just some alternative facts.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 10, 2024, 08:34:02 PM
The truth never bothered him, anyways.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2024, 12:14:50 PM
either way its going to a hard few months for Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2024, 03:57:28 PM
bottom of the barrel

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGDGbnlWwAAf_l1?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 11, 2024, 04:21:53 PM
I've been quiet about the one or two comments posted about the interview, but this is now crossing the line, so drop it. If you want to mock the only western journalist actually doing...journalism...go do it someplace else.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2024, 04:36:56 PM
journalism   :ROFL:
giving any kind of support to russia should be a no go moment.
at some point an element of normality needs to be reinjected into the common discourse and the extreme ends need to be minimized.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on February 11, 2024, 07:10:22 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 11, 2024, 04:21:53 PMI've been quiet about the one or two comments posted about the interview, but this is now crossing the line, so drop it. If you want to mock the only western journalist actually doing...journalism...go do it someplace else.
Not my bag to comment on politics but this is propaganda and not journalism 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 11, 2024, 07:20:43 PM
Locked until people can respect the rules.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 13, 2024, 10:18:04 PM
I am unlocking this thread now. As you can see, our forums were very active without posting in this topic and most of the discussions were game related, which quite honestly, is the way I prefer it. As such, I'll have no qualms about locking this one again if our rules, and in turn, the Admins, are not respected.

Thank you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: SirAndrewD on February 13, 2024, 10:26:21 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 13, 2024, 10:18:04 PMI am unlocking this thread now. As you can see, our forums were very active without posting in this topic and most of the discussions were game related, which quite honestly, is the way I prefer it. As such, I'll have no qualms about locking this one again if our rules, and in turn, the Admins, are not respected.

Thank you.

Despite the fact that this was locked for reasons that were, in my opinion, beyond R&P and were in fact for reasons not valid, and in fact we had a large number of significant members not posting since its locking I'd honestly say this..

I like this forum as game related.  I like the people here.  I hated R&P and while I feel this forum has value I don't feel we are going to get fair representation here going forward. 

This topic is going to be a significant issue going forward in Western Politics, it's been made so.  This will be something that's going to keep going for a long time.  We're not done with it.

If this is a gaming forum why don't we make it one?  You know where this topic will go, I know it.  I've got a MA in this and I know exactly what's going to happen in the next few years.

Despite the great info here it might be time to let it lie?  Just a suggestion and not one I'm fond of. 

I am just one of those guys that's been here since the Wargamer and held on and would like to see us keep on keeping on as a community.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 13, 2024, 10:28:54 PM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 13, 2024, 10:26:21 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 13, 2024, 10:18:04 PMI am unlocking this thread now. As you can see, our forums were very active without posting in this topic and most of the discussions were game related, which quite honestly, is the way I prefer it. As such, I'll have no qualms about locking this one again if our rules, and in turn, the Admins, are not respected.

Thank you.

Despite the fact that this was locked for reasons that were, in my opinion, beyond R&P and were in fact for reasons not valid, and in fact we had a large number of significant members not posting since its locking I'd honestly say this..

I like this forum as game related.  I like the people here.  I hated R&P and while I feel this forum has value I don't feel we are going to get fair representation here going forward. 

This topic is going to be a significant issue going forward in Western Politics, it's been made so.  This will be something that's going to keep going for a long time.  We're not done with it.

If this is a gaming forum why don't we make it one?  You know where this topic will go, I know it.  I've got a MA in this and I know exactly what's going to happen in the next few years.

Despite the great info here it might be time to let it lie?  Just a suggestion and not one I'm fond of. 

I am just one of those guys that's been here since the Wargamer and held on and would like to see us keep on keeping on as a community.

If you want to express your opinion about the direction of the foum, please do it someplace else. Its very much off-topic.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 14, 2024, 02:34:55 AM
Glad to see we're open to business again. I quite like it here among wargamers. Topics, discussions, the occasional banter, very similar to what we have live at our local board game club. Fully agree: let us be respectable to each other.

Meanwhile, more submersibles for the Russian Black Sea fleet?

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1757653667568636248
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 14, 2024, 03:51:33 AM
^ Seems legit?

https://twitter.com/KaptainLOMA/status/1757681963043876872
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 14, 2024, 06:23:28 AM
Quote from: SirAndrewD on February 13, 2024, 10:26:21 PM-snip-
This topic is going to be a significant issue going forward in Western Politics, it's been made so.  This will be something that's going to keep going for a long time.  We're not done with it.
-snip-
I've got a MA in this and I know exactly what's going to happen in the next few years.
-snip-
Current Events will be a busy subforum as how things are moving about. Escalation's name of the game. Agreed, this topic's going nowhere, while several others will likely pop up, too. As they already have.

May you live in interesting times.

We're jinxed, for certain.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 14, 2024, 04:15:47 PM
Looks like the Russians will have to make due with 1 less Large Landing Craft. It appears that the UAF sunk another one.

Damn they are getting good at that type of operation
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 15, 2024, 11:48:01 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGUBvN2WYAEiZRZ?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on February 15, 2024, 11:54:43 AM
According to this article, the "Tsezar Kunikov" was loaded when it sank. 

https://gcaptain.com/ukraine-claims-sinking-of-russian-landing-warship-in-black-sea/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-952530110d-170465134&mc_cid=952530110d&mc_eid=28239a3349
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 15, 2024, 12:05:20 PM
Quote from: Tripoli on February 15, 2024, 11:54:43 AMAccording to this article, the "Tsezar Kunikov" was loaded when it sank

https://gcaptain.com/ukraine-claims-sinking-of-russian-landing-warship-in-black-sea/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-952530110d-170465134&mc_cid=952530110d&mc_eid=28239a3349

even better!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 15, 2024, 12:43:34 PM
Four out of ten Ropucha class vessels now serve as submarines. That's a crazy loss ratio.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 15, 2024, 04:22:41 PM
this is different:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13077479/Putin-constructs-20-MILE-long-tsar-train-2-100-freight-cars-lined-create-mobile-wall-defend-newly-gained-territory-Ukraine.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 16, 2024, 08:10:40 AM
Alexei Navalny, the main opposition to Putin, has died at 47, in a Russian gulag.  He was poisoned in August of 2020 with Novichok nerve agent, treated in Germany, and returned to Russia against all advice.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 16, 2024, 08:57:09 AM
So they finally killed him. Let the darkness descend.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 16, 2024, 09:02:57 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on February 16, 2024, 08:57:09 AMSo they finally killed him. Let the darkness descend.

You mean it hadn't already?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 16, 2024, 10:20:22 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 16, 2024, 09:02:57 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on February 16, 2024, 08:57:09 AMSo they finally killed him. Let the darkness descend.

You mean it hadn't already?

I mean, there has been this (false) front of democracy Putin's pretended to follow, while posturing how their version is so much better than what the global west has on offer. Seems he doesn't care anymore, at all.

With Soviet Union, at least that of late, we at least had the party committee deciding on things. Some sort of consensus had to take place. Now it is just Putin.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 16, 2024, 10:39:06 AM
navalny was just as bad as putin in most things so I'm not shedding any tears at his passing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 16, 2024, 11:07:19 AM
Russia is the Titanic and the Captain is removing junior officers.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 16, 2024, 12:09:46 PM
He was not Nemtsov; I always hoped Navalny would recant his xenophobia, but he had condemned the war in Ukraine. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on February 16, 2024, 03:25:13 PM
Maaan I always said Nemtsov would have been awesome for Russia if he had an honest chance to be elected.

Instead they murdered him walking on a bridge in Moscow that smelled of political hit job.

Hence Russia is destined for the life it lives.

That would have been a good question for the Tucker interview " Did you order the hit on Nemtsov"?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 16, 2024, 09:41:34 PM
The Ukrainian Army announces its complete withdrawal from Avdiivka to avoid encirclement

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGgEEP4XYAAUMI0?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 17, 2024, 10:48:19 AM
this could have been prevented...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1758870596199338149
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 17, 2024, 12:11:05 PM
so I'm gaming this morning with the youtube audio Red Storm Rising playing in the backround.  those first 5 or so chapters.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 17, 2024, 08:27:22 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 17, 2024, 10:48:19 AMthis could have been prevented...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1758870596199338149

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 18, 2024, 01:56:53 PM
Again, while Germany still seems to get a lot of flak on their commitment in aid, it is France that truly is missing from the big picture.

https://x.com/ch_trebesch/status/1758385245852987759
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 18, 2024, 02:00:26 PM
France, Italy, Spain, more like it. Switzerland fully in their neutral happy place, too bad, as they would have a lot of usable stuff in stock.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 19, 2024, 01:49:06 AM
Story of one volunteer, very similar to what I have heard from others, who've come back. And managed to stay back. RIP young man.

Via google translate.

https://yle-fi.translate.goog/a/74-20075031?_x_tr_sl=fi&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 19, 2024, 08:11:05 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1759700857161953334
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2024, 08:02:43 PM
so a russian training ground was visited by some Himars today.   :evil:
I don't think that battalion is going to be deployed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 21, 2024, 09:34:41 AM
The second anniversary of Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in a few days. RAND discussion on variety of topics related to that.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/02/two-years-after-russia-invaded-ukraine.html
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 21, 2024, 11:11:27 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2024, 08:02:43 PMso a russian training ground was visited by some Himars today.   :evil:
I don't think that battalion is going to be deployed.

I also read on twitter that a UAF drone flew to Russian logistics centre and one of the big structures had its doors wide ass open and the drone had a good visit
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2024, 11:13:27 AM
I saw that video.  quite a few drones came to say hi.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 21, 2024, 12:09:19 PM
Quote from: Windigo on February 21, 2024, 11:11:27 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 20, 2024, 08:02:43 PMso a russian training ground was visited by some Himars today.   :evil:
I don't think that battalion is going to be deployed.

I also read on twitter that a UAF drone flew to Russian logistics centre and one of the big structures had its doors wide ass open and the drone had a good visit
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2024, 11:13:27 AMI saw that video.  quite a few drones came to say hi.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/20/russian-troops-left-their-warehouse-doors-open-ukrainian-drones-flew-right-inside-and-blew-up-a-bunch-of-armored-vehicles/?sh=1bf06f2e5666
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2024, 05:40:42 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1760422404814159960
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 21, 2024, 06:15:04 PM
all of the hits

https://twitter.com/i/status/1760436105525031049
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on February 22, 2024, 12:19:44 AM
Uber, thanks for posting that video.  The conclusion of that Forbes article is kind of sad.

QuoteThe implication is that the Ukrainians extended the range of their first-person quadcopters, possibly by flying them in a long formation with a larger "repeater" drone that captured, and rebroadcast, the FPVs' command signals. With the help of a repeater drone, an FPV might range more than 10 miles.

But if the Ukrainians could locate a warehouse complex full of tanks 10 miles behind the front line, why not strike it with much heavier weapons than drones—artillery, rockets, even glide-bombs—and guarantee the instantaneous destruction of the entire complex?

The answer is obvious. The United States was the main supplier of Ukraine's heavy munitions, and Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress since October have refused to vote on fresh aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are running out of their heaviest weapons.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 22, 2024, 11:39:15 AM
American leadership supporting the Russian state.... that shit is as sad as it is unbelievable. Ronald Reagan is rolling in his grave.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 22, 2024, 11:54:45 AM
Thanks for the like FarAwaySooner.  Yes, it was painful reading the conclusion to that article, but I didn't quote it here, wanting to be discrete lest the forum be locked up again, only posting the link.

Now everyone knows what an insidious SOB I can be.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 23, 2024, 11:44:48 AM
Muster call then and now

https://twitter.com/Pharmspice/status/1760748525938253835
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 23, 2024, 12:49:05 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on February 23, 2024, 11:44:48 AMMuster call then and now

Слава Україні!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 12:55:13 PM
Ummm...I'm not complaining, but it seems like a silly post. Of course, they are all still there. That is what happens when you cancel elections.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 23, 2024, 01:51:21 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 12:55:13 PMUmmm...I'm not complaining, but it seems like a silly post. Of course, they are all still there. That is what happens when you cancel elections.

... and fight back a brutal invasion?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 02:17:25 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on February 23, 2024, 01:51:21 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 12:55:13 PMUmmm...I'm not complaining, but it seems like a silly post. Of course, they are all still there. That is what happens when you cancel elections.

... and fight back a brutal invasion?

Yes, yes...I know. It's an emergency, so its totally ok to give up essential liberty. I don't really follow Ukrainian politics too closely, so I'm not even sure the concept there exists.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 23, 2024, 02:22:11 PM
Back to front lines, who does not like cat pictures. Let us see if confirmed. Bluen on blue reports emerging from Crimea, again. Loss of radar capabilities seems to be true at least, if something indeed was brough down.

https://twitter.com/giantcat9/status/1761091705414037568
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 23, 2024, 02:23:07 PM
Same, without cats, for you dog people out there.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1761084157004784000
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 23, 2024, 02:23:51 PM
I read Crossroads post in reference to everyone still being alive  :headscratch:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 02:25:32 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 23, 2024, 02:23:51 PMI read Crossroads post in reference to everyone still being alive  :headscratch:

I was being tongue in cheek. Thanks for ruining the joke.

I realize one should not make jokes at Ukraine's expense in this thread. I apologize.  :notworthy:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 23, 2024, 02:39:29 PM
I didn't think you had tongue in cheek capability,
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 03:11:01 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 23, 2024, 02:39:29 PMI didn't think you had tongue in cheek capability,

New feature with version 1.01 software.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 23, 2024, 03:18:18 PM
Like a new Terminator.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 23, 2024, 04:09:50 PM
I tried the 1.01 patch a while ago. I don't think it worked, not with my internal circuits at least. It won't roll back either. Please send a stable baseline :Nerd:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 04:26:17 PM
Quote from: Crossroads on February 23, 2024, 04:09:50 PMI tried the 1.01 patch a while ago. I don't think it worked, not with my internal circuits at least. It won't roll back either. Please send a stable baseline :Nerd:

Quote from: Gusington on February 23, 2024, 03:18:18 PMLike a new Terminator.

The upgrade goes great with my polished mimetic polyalloy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2024, 05:54:39 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 12:55:13 PMUmmm...I'm not complaining, but it seems like a silly post. Of course, they are all still there. That is what happens when you cancel elections.

first of all the photo is more about the fact that none of them have been killed or assassinated and that the Ukraine government still stands.  second of all is the fact that its illegal to hold elections during wartime.  that law was last updated in 2015, well before Zelensky took office.  its good to be informed.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 23, 2024, 06:06:13 PM
^We just went over exactly what you just posted in the half dozen posts above yours  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 06:13:56 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2024, 05:54:39 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 12:55:13 PMUmmm...I'm not complaining, but it seems like a silly post. Of course, they are all still there. That is what happens when you cancel elections.

first of all the photo is more about the fact that none of them have been killed or assassinated and that the Ukraine government still stands.  second of all is the fact that its illegal to hold elections during wartime.  that law was last updated in 2015, well before Zelensky took office.  its good to be informed.

Good to be informed? I am informed. You're the one that should get educated. Ukraine's constitution holds that the country may not hold parliamentary elections until martial law is lifted, and for six months thereafter. Who has control of lifting martial law? If you guessed Volodymyr Zelenskyy, you'd get a gold star.

What was that you were saying about being informed?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2024, 06:19:18 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 23, 2024, 02:17:25 PMI don't really follow Ukrainian politics too closely, so I'm not even sure the concept there exists.

just following JH's statement.
I also really don't see the problem with the policy for that specific country as its an amalgamation of Western and East European ideas about democracy.  I really don't see Zelensky pulling a putin type dynasty.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2024, 06:25:11 PM
lol and you're not nearly as funny as you think you are.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2024, 07:49:30 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHDXLk1bMAAmrTI?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2024, 08:41:03 PM

https://twitter.com/i/status/1760991111521206274
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 24, 2024, 04:19:08 AM
Some reading for the second anniversay of the invasion of mainland Ukraine, ten year anniversary of the war itself in the summer approaching as well.

TL;DR? We know many of the problems Ukraine is facing, we know none of the ones Russia's got.

Dr Peter Caddick-Adams

https://thecritic.co.uk/ukraine-can-still-triumph/

Professor Lawrence Freedman

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/war-putin-still-cant-win
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on February 25, 2024, 01:24:53 AM
Hear hear.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1761514924373631237
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 25, 2024, 06:44:23 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on February 25, 2024, 01:24:53 AMHear hear.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1761514924373631237

Impressively and succinctly put.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2024, 08:37:25 AM
Gotta love His Excellency's diplomatic way with words.  But his less diplomatic way with words is even better.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 25, 2024, 09:53:26 AM
Democracy is saved!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHIqFwoW4AASdPn?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 25, 2024, 01:23:24 PM
If that doesn't break him, nothing will.

Let hear it for jolly old Brittania!  HIP, HIP, HUZZAH!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 25, 2024, 08:37:14 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on February 25, 2024, 01:23:24 PMIf that doesn't break him, nothing will.

Let hear it for jolly old Brittania!  HIP, HIP, HUZZAH!

Austin Powers strikes again.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on February 25, 2024, 10:12:11 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on February 25, 2024, 06:44:23 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on February 25, 2024, 01:24:53 AMHear hear.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1761514924373631237

Impressively and succinctly put.
Quote from: Crossroads on February 25, 2024, 01:24:53 AMHear hear.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1761514924373631237

I'd like to buy that guy a drink, hell a bottle.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2024, 08:11:05 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHTXkh2XwAAMaCw?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2024, 08:39:27 PM
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on February 26, 2024, 08:46:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2024, 08:11:05 PM(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHTXkh2XwAAMaCw?format=jpg&name=large)

Now THAT is what I call a lot of war profiteering. Yay!!!

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-aid-us-economy/ (https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-aid-us-economy/)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2024, 09:11:21 PM
so this happened

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHRNeiJXUAAXXaa?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2024, 09:15:27 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 26, 2024, 08:46:34 PMhttps://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-aid-us-economy/

ok, I'm still good with giving out old stock weapons and replacing them with brand new models.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on February 26, 2024, 10:23:07 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2024, 09:11:21 PMso this happened


They are just damned good...not invulnerable.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 26, 2024, 10:44:16 PM
they've supposedly been operating around Avdivika for about a month now, so only losing one so far isn't that bad.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2024, 10:21:56 PM
have any of you noticed how badly the russian air force is getting mauled this week?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 28, 2024, 07:07:07 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 27, 2024, 10:21:56 PMhave any of you noticed how badly the russian air force is getting mauled this week?

Supposedly they have been more aggressively supporting their ground troops.  Maybe this is their last hurrah
before trying to seriously negotiate for some kind of ceasefire so they can hold onto the territory they have
obliterated.  I was going to say "keep their gains", but causing NATO to expand and suffering massive loses etc. etc. suggests that sitting on some rubble is only a way of selling a potential asking for a ceasefire to their
internal audience as a victory of some kind.  That all would have been a good idea about two years ago, but negotiating now is kind of late.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2024, 07:50:47 AM
2fer!  :ThumbsUp:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1762750227163840974
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Pete Dero on February 28, 2024, 11:39:23 AM
Russia's Criteria for Launching a Nuclear Strike Just Dropped


Leaked classified documents describe conditions under which Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons, according to the Financial Times. The files from 2008 and 2014 reportedly show that Moscow would potentially deploy the devices—which are designed for limited battlefield use but could still be many times more powerful than those dropped on Japan at the end of WWII—when certain criteria are met.

They reportedly include conditions like a fifth of Russia's strategic ballistic missile submarines being destroyed, the loss of 30 percent of its nuclear-powered attack subs, three or more cruisers being taken out, or even the loss of three airfields. A simultaneous attack on Russia's main and reserve coastal command centers could also trigger a nuke strike, as could an enemy incursion into Russian territory. Russia could also use the bombs as a way of preventing the loss of battles or as a means of "stopping aggression."

Experts who reviewed the files told the FT they reveal a threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons that is significantly lower than the Kremlin has ever publicly acknowledged.


https://www.ft.com/content/f18e6e1f-5c3d-4554-aee5-50a730b306b7 (behind paywall)
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-criteria-for-launching-a-nuclear-strike-just-dropped-ft
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 28, 2024, 12:21:33 PM
Their naval loses in the conflict have to be pretty close to the line now....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 28, 2024, 04:39:57 PM
 :embarrassed:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 28, 2024, 06:32:07 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 28, 2024, 04:39:57 PM:embarrassed:

I think that policy paper was deliberately leaked to try and influence western European leaders. Putin doesn't have a death wish so he won't do anything of the sort.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2024, 06:43:48 PM
thats my take as well.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 28, 2024, 06:47:33 PM
Quote from: Windigo on February 28, 2024, 06:32:07 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 28, 2024, 04:39:57 PM:embarrassed:

I think that policy paper was deliberately leaked to try and influence western European leaders. Putin doesn't have a death wish so he won't do anything of the sort.

Seems plausible.  I think the Russians have now started working on the problem of how to look good while giving up.  Sure, they can go on pounding on Ukraine for the next 200 years, but that really doesn't seem to be doing much good.  What's going on right now?  Iran isn't helping.  China isn't helping.  The Houthi thing is curiously unconvincing and so maybe the Russians are trying to make that look more menacing by pulling up the cables under the Red Sea and saying the Houthi did it.  And of course something about nukes, though I think even the Houthi are more threatening at the moment than Russia's thing about the nukes -- hence the cable pulling under the Red Sea to imply they have strings to pull all over the world so you'd better let them have an Oblast or two or else things could get serious.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2024, 06:58:03 PM
what Red Sea cable pulling?  I've had a busy day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 28, 2024, 08:56:28 PM
Well, we'll see what Putin says in his speech tomorrow as the run-up to his re-election in March.  With control over almost all media and speech he doesn't really need to pause out of concern for losing the election.  I doubt the Russians are ready to give up in Ukraine and their goals are still maximalist, the destruction of Ukraine.  With Ukraine's current shortages of weapons and manpower, the Russians might not ever be in a better position.

Outside of Ukraine, the Russians are agitating around the world.  https://ca.news.yahoo.com/top-putin-ally-pledges-russian-223157597.html 
QuoteRussian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, a top ally of President Vladimir Putin, pledged on Monday to help Latin American countries counter what he described as U.S. attempts to interfere in their internal affairs.

He made his comments in Nicaragua, led by former Marxist guerrilla Daniel Ortega, after meeting Cuba's former leader Raul Castro in Havana.

Next he visits Bolivia and you guessed it, Venezuela.  " which like Cuba and Nicaragua are ran by leftist governments that have had frosty relationships with Washington."

On the other southern continent, Wagner has rebranded itself.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68322230
QuoteRussia is offering governments in Africa a "regime survival package" in exchange for access to strategically important natural resources, a major new report has found.

Internal Russian government documents, seen by the BBC, also detail how it is working to change mining laws in West Africa, with the ambition of dislodging Western companies from an area of strategic importance.
This is part of the process of the Russian government taking over the businesses of the Wagner mercenary group, broken up after a failed coup in June 2023.
The multibillion dollar operations are now mostly being run as the Russian "Expeditionary Corps", managed by the man accused of being behind the attempt to murder Sergei Skripal using the Novichok nerve agent on the streets of the UK - a charge Russia has denied.

Russia is protecting these coup leaders in exchange for mineral rights and is getting the governments to change the laws to restrict access by Western mineral companies to strategic resources.  It must be nice to discredit the Western powers as colonial exploiters while doing the exact same thing, but dressed up as revolutionary partners.
QuoteAccording to Dr Watling [of RUSI], Wagner was operating in a well-established tradition: "There is a standard Russian modus operandi, which is that you cover the operational costs with parallel business activity. In Africa, that is primarily through mining concessions."
In every country in which it operates, Wagner was reported to have secured valuable natural resources using these to not only cover costs, but also extract significant revenue. Russia has extracted $2.5bn (£2bn) worth of gold from Africa in the past two years, which is likely to have helped fund its war in Ukraine, according to the Blood Gold Report.

Russia isn't done, not by a long shot.  They will use disinformation to make the West hesitate, waver and question its ability to confront this War on Democracy, while they play a long strategic game where they build up alliances world wide that stir up trouble while restricting the Wests access to vital resources.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2024, 08:59:51 PM
we'll see what happens when the Kerch bridge is hit again.   :twirl:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 28, 2024, 09:09:29 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2024, 08:59:51 PMwe'll see what happens when the Kerch bridge is hit again.   :twirl:
I'll welcome that when it happens, but how many Storm Shadow missiles can Ukraine have left while Germany hesitates to send Taurus?  They'll need to overwhelm the air defences.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2024, 10:14:50 PM
I don't think they'll use them en mass until they try another offensive.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on February 28, 2024, 10:35:02 PM
Oh, how could I possibly have forgotten these negative waves.  https://www.understandingwar.org/

QuoteFeb 28, 2024 - ISW Press

Pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria held the Seventh Congress of Transnistrian Deputies on February 28 and adopted a series of decisions that likely aim to provide the Kremlin with justifications for a wide range of possible escalatory actions against Moldova — actions the Kremlin can pursue both immediately and over the long-term. The Congress of Transnistrian Deputies adopted seven decisions, including a request to the Russian State Duma and Federation Council for Russian "defense" of Transnistria in response to alleged increasing pressures from Moldova. Transnistrian officials specifically used "zashchita" (защита), a word that means both "defense" and "protection" in their request, likely to set conditions for the Kremlin to interpret "defense" in a military sense if it so chooses.

Good luck to them getting to Transnistria, though.  If they had made it past Odessa and say 50km to the Transnistrian border in the first weeks of the war, they might have linked up with and resupplied the Russian forces there.  They aren't much threat as they stand, from March 2022  https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/03/15/expired-arms-tepid-fighters-russian-ally-transnistria-may-have-little-to-offer-for-putins-war/
QuoteBut the age of the armaments would render most of them unusable in a conflict today, he said.

"We estimate 11,000 tonnes have expired and 9,000 tonnes are usable," he said, adding no recent access had been granted, making an accurate assessment difficult.

"Right before the war we had a dialogue with the Russian Federation about destroying the expired weapons. ... They said they were willing to evacuate or destroy most of the weapons. But we have not discussed the matter in the new context," he said.

The troops stationed there may not be much use either. Although local forces fought a brief war of independence with Moldova in 1992 in which 1,000 died, they reportedly do not have much will to fight today.

Of the 1,300 soldiers now stationed in Transnistria, 400 take part in a local peacekeeping mission. Of the total, only 50-100 are Russian soldiers dispatched from Russia, said Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank.

Just more causing trouble worldwide.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on February 29, 2024, 11:20:50 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2024, 06:58:03 PMwhat Red Sea cable pulling?  I've had a busy day.

Some cables:

https://www.medianama.com/2024/02/223-four-undersea-communication-cables-cut-red-sea-report/#:~:text=Why%20it%20matters%3A%20These%20undersea,bottom%20of%20the%20Red%20Sea.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 29, 2024, 12:19:46 PM
this isnt even a high speed turn.   :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1763205698974802073
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on February 29, 2024, 12:26:46 PM
vehicle stabilization is for western pussies
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 29, 2024, 12:29:51 PM
That one 12 second clip sums up the Russian war effort. Top heavy, clumsy and ultimately collapsing under its own weight.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 29, 2024, 01:32:03 PM
 :smitten:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1763265448580141207
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 29, 2024, 02:06:17 PM
 :Dreamer:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 29, 2024, 03:41:13 PM
awaiting the meme

https://twitter.com/i/status/1763138148547092616

that didn't take long.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHg0pA2XsAALr6j?format=jpg&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHfv9z6W0AEM-Q0?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on February 29, 2024, 04:07:35 PM
^Glory to Ukraine, bitches!'
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 01, 2024, 09:21:41 AM
...and now the most negative update I have seen in a while  :undecided:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 01, 2024, 01:22:16 PM
Three American PhDs, two, possibly all three with military careers, comment on what is needed in adapting Western assistance to Ukraine, describing the war as a cyberpunk war. From RUSI:  https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/weathering-storm-western-security-assistance-defensive-ukraine 
QuoteThe infrastructure and institutions that are susceptible to continued kinetic and non-kinetic Russian attacks need to be identified and made more resilient to attacks to ensure that people and processes can weather continued Russian bombings, cyber attacks and information warfare. Without such resilience, Ukrainian citizens and leaders may lose the will to resist, and Western backers may reconsider economic and military assistance.
The outdated Western way of training the Ukrainians in combined arms manoeuvre and the provision of stale Cold War-era weapons systems need to be modified considerably. The 51-member coalition supporting Ukraine should want more bang for its buck – as do the Ukrainians. This means Western trainers and advisors should constantly update and modernise programmes of instruction for the battlefield that Ukrainian soldiers face. The West should provide more professional military education to Ukrainian officers and senior enlisted personnel to help them out-think and out-fight the Russians. Current Western efforts to educate Ukrainian forces are too little, too late.
Ukraine's forces need to invest in a resilient defensive posture, and would benefit from Western help to do so. This means barricades, trenches, minefields and counter-drone capabilities to resist Russian assaults while Ukraine regenerates a more capable and rested military.
Ukraine should continue espionage operations that punish Russian critical infrastructure such as the Trans-Siberian Railway and energy infrastructure to undermine Russian military-industrial production. Indirect Western support for these operations will involve challenges in escalation management, but they should offer opportunities to disturb the equilibrium of Russia's frontal approach in a manner that minimises Ukrainian casualties.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 01, 2024, 01:25:57 PM
^Good post. There's probably no way of knowing how much 'advanced assistance' the West is giving Ukraine for fear of provoking more and more intense Russian responses.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 01, 2024, 01:48:55 PM
Thanks, the video you posted was great, very interesting though painful to watch. 
Quote from: Gusington on March 01, 2024, 01:25:57 PM^Good post. There's probably no way of knowing how much 'advanced assistance' the West is giving Ukraine for fear of provoking more and more intense Russian responses.
Poland's present FM (but not at the time) posted pictures of SAS in Ukraine performing AT weaponry training in the early stages of the war.  While the present German Chancellor has gotten himself into hot water with his allies:  https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/german-chancellor-appeared-to-suggest-that-british-and-french-soldiers-have-helped-ukraine-fire-deep-strike-missiles-at-russian-targets-report-says/ar-BB1j7JSq

The Russians threatened to shoot down a French AWACS in international airspace.  https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240222-france-says-russia-threatened-to-down-spy-plane-in-particularly-aggressive-black-sea-exchange 
QuoteFlying high above the Black Sea coast, the French AWACS use their powerful radar and other surveillance gear to peer across to the Crimean Peninsula that was seized from Ukraine by Russia and annexed in 2014. The flights can spot missile launches, airborne bombing runs and other military activity in the Ukraine war.
Other military activity such as ships.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 01, 2024, 01:59:53 PM
^I'm sure there is a ton of secret squirrel operations ongoing in Ukraine that will never ever be acknowledged by any of the 50+ coalition governments  :ThumbsUp:

And yes Warographics content is some of the best on the interwebs...and they are prolific, posting numerous videos on multiple channels every week.

Can you imagine if the Russians did shoot down the French AWACS?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 01, 2024, 04:49:55 PM
I think Russia knows that would be a big no-no. Ukrainians with unlimited big boy toys would be a very bad thing for them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 01, 2024, 04:51:10 PM
I think we should give them a submarine or two.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 01, 2024, 04:52:21 PM
I think we already have.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 01, 2024, 05:00:32 PM
QuoteCan you imagine if the Russians did shoot down the French AWACS?

that would definitely be an Article 5 trigger.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 01, 2024, 06:16:34 PM
A Russian SU-27 fired on a UK Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft in September 2022.  It missed, it wasn't a misfire as originally claimed.  https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66798508 
QuoteAs the two Russian SU-27s approached the RAF spy plane, they received a communication from their ground station controller.
One Western source told the BBC the words they received were to the effect of "you have the target".
This ambiguous language was interpreted by one of the Russian pilots as permission to fire.
The loose language appears to have shown a high degree of unprofessionalism by those involved, sources said. In contrast, Nato pilots use very precise language when asking for and receiving permission to fire.
The Russian pilot released an air-to-air missile, which successfully launched but failed to lock on to its target, the BBC has been told. It was a miss, not a malfunction.
Defence sources have told the BBC that a row then broke out between the two Russian pilots.
The pilot of the second SU-27 did not think they had been given permission to fire.
He is said to have sworn at his comrade, effectively asking him what he thought he was doing.
Yet the first pilot still released another missile.
We had been told that the second missile simply fell from the wing - suggesting the weapon either malfunctioned or that the launch was aborted.

I guess I'm not the only person who would benefit from using more precise language.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: al_infierno on March 01, 2024, 07:23:41 PM
Nevalny was laid to rest today.... with the Terminator 2 theme playing as he was lowered into the ground.   :shocked:

(You can hear it at 0:53)

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 01, 2024, 07:27:55 PM
^He'll be...back?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 01, 2024, 08:08:31 PM
If the West could just give NATO as many dumb artillery shells as they'd like, and stop sitting on our asses in terms of continuing other types of assistance that we WERE giving them six months ago, I think that Ukraine could be weathering this much more effectively.

I do wonder how Ukrainian cyberwarfare is going against the Russians.  I would think that is an area where the Ukrainians would have a lot of folks with strong aptitude, even if they didn't start the war with the cadre of professional hackers that Russia did.  I would also think that would be an area where the West could provide some help--and they'd benefit from getting to deploy some of their cyberweapons versus the Russians.

Maybe they're already doing that and neither side's media is picking it up?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 01, 2024, 08:36:29 PM
oh we're definitely helping them on the cyber front.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 01, 2024, 08:51:37 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1763636278682165724
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 02, 2024, 04:52:12 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 01, 2024, 05:00:32 PM
QuoteCan you imagine if the Russians did shoot down the French AWACS?

that would definitely be an Article 5 trigger.
I think you're right - it would be a trigger. But I also think it's bollox to think it would be an actual trigger.

The west has already shown it's hand to Putin. If Russia were to take out a NATO asset, that wasn't US, it would be explained away. Hell, perhaps even if it was a US asset. Excuses would be made to prevent escalation. Everything would be poured into dialing down the rhetoric.

The problem is - you have one side that has the actual will (or at least propagates the belief they have the will) to use nuclear weapons, and the other side not only isn't, but will do everything it can to prevent that.

I'm not saying that's a bad thing - preventing nuclear war - but there's an unhealthy balance in that and Putin knows it.

He'll carry on threatening and everytime he does, the west will continue to show it's lack of resolve.

It's really quite sad. We're watching the very slow bleeding to death of a nation.

I'll just say this - I know there were no nukes involved, but we all learnt about bullies at school and we knew what we had to do. The sooner the west realises that - the sooner Ukraine can get those cockroaches off their land.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2024, 04:31:55 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1764005136509096414
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 04, 2024, 12:36:50 PM
That is a lot of rounds on target. Damn. They didn't stand a chance. Shitty shitty training too.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 05, 2024, 06:06:38 AM
Yet another Russian Black Sea Fleet submersible enter the area, apparently.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1764932879706886442
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 05, 2024, 06:30:47 AM
Don't they have any onboard defences? There's an unusual amount of remotely guided weapons able to hit Russian ships!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2024, 06:41:00 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 05, 2024, 06:30:47 AMDon't they have any onboard defences?

no

QuoteThe class's armaments include the Kalibr-NK cruise missile, the AK-176 76.2 mm dual-purpose naval gun, aerosol camouflage, two grenade launchers, and two machine guns.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 05, 2024, 10:52:58 AM
yes... they are just ineffective; apparently, shitting your pants has no effect on surface drones.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2024, 11:14:22 AM
kind of surprised there isn't at least one  of their 30mm CWIS on board.  the soviets used to be pretty liberal with them o  ships.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 05, 2024, 11:49:54 AM
You'd think they'd at least retrofit or jury rig something.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2024, 12:35:39 PM
supposedly it had a Tor air defense system strapped to the rear deck. 

 :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 05, 2024, 01:29:31 PM
After watching it all, that is a pretty big hole in the side of that bad boy. I assume the other drone just drove into it
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 05, 2024, 01:32:59 PM
Sea Drone Info/News (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/meet-ukraine-s-small-but-lethal-weapon-lifting-morale-unmanned-sea-drones-packed-with-explosives/ar-BB1jmG4P?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=dda5e26833734c0b874fedd377de9fb7&ei=18)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 05, 2024, 11:07:30 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GH4nfP9W0AAzqMY?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 06, 2024, 07:58:33 AM
The help of the Tank Museum in Bovington was needed in the manufacture of tank tracks for Ukraine.  https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-dorset-68470203 
QuoteA military museum has revealed it was called upon to help reverse-engineer Soviet-era tank tracks for a defence firm supplying components to Ukraine.

The Tank Museum in Bovington, Dorset, worked with Cook Defence Systems after a request from the Ministry of Defence.
Incomplete Soviet-era drawings and links from Ukraine were used with the museum's own track specimens to help reproduce the replacement tracks.
The components have since been manufactured and shipped.
The tracks and drive sprockets were made by County Durham-based Cook Defence Systems for MT-LB and BMP amphibious infantry fighting vehicles and for T-72 battle tanks.
Better the help of a museum, than riding the exhibits into battle!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2024, 08:36:29 AM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1765366468001018325
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 06, 2024, 02:32:22 PM
Thanks to Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden is about to formally join NATO in a few days.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/swedish-pm-travels-to-us-as-nato-accession-nears/ar-BB1jqsyC?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=a360b20c0e6349e8b00472241adc6468&ei=24 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/swedish-pm-travels-to-us-as-nato-accession-nears/ar-BB1jqsyC?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=a360b20c0e6349e8b00472241adc6468&ei=24)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 06, 2024, 05:25:20 PM
 :Party:  :Party:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2024, 06:29:00 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GH-sgaxWkAEKxv2?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2024, 06:33:39 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1765515204031398150
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 07, 2024, 06:10:21 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2024, 08:36:29 AMhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1765366468001018325
So they did have some protection on the ships...it's just shite!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 07, 2024, 10:59:40 AM
The downside of visiting Russia as a tourist.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/indian-tourists-in-russia-coerced-into-fighting-in-ukraine-conflict/ar-BB1ju6Je?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=3e610399599548699246b6ebd77100cf&ei=20 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/indian-tourists-in-russia-coerced-into-fighting-in-ukraine-conflict/ar-BB1ju6Je?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=3e610399599548699246b6ebd77100cf&ei=20)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 07, 2024, 11:08:02 AM
^Damn
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 07, 2024, 12:31:56 PM
On the ground in Donetsk with the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68493215
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 07, 2024, 03:03:18 PM
Confirmed...British troops on ground operating in Ukraine.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/british-troops-operating-ground-ukraine-141854342.html (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/british-troops-operating-ground-ukraine-141854342.html)

...but, wait, there's more...France, Netherlands, Lithuania, and Canada have publicly stated that they were considering sending combat troops to Ukraine while also threatening to attack Russian infrastructure and cities.  Furthermore, German transmissions discussing the use of long-range missiles to target Crimea were also leaked.

Talk about a massive escalation.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 07, 2024, 03:22:04 PM
Out of curiousity, does anyone know if the US had personnel in the Soviet Union assisting in training them on US Lend Lease before German declaration of war on US in Dec '41?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 07, 2024, 03:29:23 PM
Quote from: bobarossa on March 07, 2024, 03:22:04 PMOut of curiousity, does anyone know if the US had personnel in the Soviet Union assisting in training them on US Lend Lease before German declaration of war on US in Dec '41?

I do not believe so.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: acctingman on March 07, 2024, 05:18:16 PM
anyone think WW3 is on the horizon?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2024, 05:45:18 PM
ffs lets just get it over with already
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 07, 2024, 08:24:23 PM
 :embarrassed:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2024, 09:37:30 PM
some decent air time

https://twitter.com/i/status/1765569372045680688
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: nelmsm on March 07, 2024, 09:44:24 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2024, 09:37:30 PMsome decent air time

https://twitter.com/i/status/1765569372045680688

Holy shit!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 07, 2024, 11:29:27 PM
Technically there may have been a few Western troops on the ground in the Soviet Union when the panzers rolled, but they would have been up in Arkhangelsk with the convoys or maybe down in the Caucasus at the end of the rail line from the Middle East (though I'm not sure that was constructed yet). Stalin didn't want any western military outside of special chaperoned envoys, to cut down on spying inside the USSR (and the guests got curtailed even more between the Ribbentrop Pact and Barbie). But some sailors might have been on shore for leave. I'm not sure about the supply ship status up north when the trigger was pulled.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 07, 2024, 11:29:59 PM
And Sweden joined NATO tonight, with a welcome from Pres Biden at the Union Address.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 07, 2024, 11:31:23 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 07, 2024, 03:03:18 PMConfirmed...British troops on ground operating in Ukraine.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/british-troops-operating-ground-ukraine-141854342.html (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/british-troops-operating-ground-ukraine-141854342.html)

...but, wait, there's more...France, Netherlands, Lithuania, and Canada have publicly stated that they were considering sending combat troops to Ukraine while also threatening to attack Russian infrastructure and cities.  Furthermore, German transmissions discussing the use of long-range missiles to target Crimea were also leaked.

Talk about a massive escalation.

Not sure why this is a big deal, someone had to teach the Ukrainians to use the storm shadows and chally tanks.  Pretty sure they were also helping with intelligence and targeting.  Not really a big deal.  Case you forgot, there were Iranians operating shaheed drones in Ukraine, some were confirmed killed.  And I'm pretty sure US advisers were helping Britain and russsia before December 7, 1941.  Also, the flying tigers/ AVG ?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2024, 11:39:21 PM
something something SAM-2 sites in North Vietnam....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 08, 2024, 01:41:44 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 07, 2024, 11:29:59 PMAnd Sweden joined NATO tonight, with a welcome from Pres Biden at the Union Address.

:Hug:
https://twitter.com/tweetforAnna/status/1765837094285406227

What... He (the PM) actually is smiling. I denounce this nonsense. You just don't make public speeches while smiling, ever. IF you want to show emotions post a meme dammit :TimeOut:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 08, 2024, 03:32:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2024, 05:45:18 PMffs lets just get it over with already
I agree. Call this ****'s bluff and get in there. Fuck living under the boot of this wanker.

I know what that potentially means. I know it sounds like I'm taking that lightly - I'm not. But the alternative is to live under the threat of nuclear armageddon for the rest of our lives...and really, where's the point of NATO, the UN or any other of these international organisations if we're being handicapped by threats.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 08, 2024, 04:52:20 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 08, 2024, 03:32:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2024, 05:45:18 PMffs lets just get it over with already
I agree. Call this ****'s bluff and get in there. Fuck living under the boot of this wanker.

I know what that potentially means. I know it sounds like I'm taking that lightly - I'm not. But the alternative is to live under the threat of nuclear armageddon for the rest of our lives...and really, where's the point of NATO, the UN or any other of these international organisations if we're being handicapped by threats.

Especially as what the Ukrainians have asked all along is that give us weapons and we will do the fighting. As everyone and their dog has mentioned from the beginning, the price for stopping Putin only increases. It would have been easier to do so yesterday, but to do it today will be less than what it will take tomorrow. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2024, 07:05:56 AM
Macron draws his line in the sand.  any advance toward Odessa or Kiev will bring French troops into play.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Toonces on March 08, 2024, 08:38:13 AM
Guess I'll go ahead and buy that Rolex.  Can't take the money with you.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 08, 2024, 09:04:06 AM
Is there a link out there on what Macron said about French troops? This is getting...interesting-er  :shocked:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 08, 2024, 09:21:57 AM
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29194  also https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/world/europe/ukraine-france-macron-nato.html

Who would have thunk that JudgeDredd has so much pull with the French President.  Is he a Stuart?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 08, 2024, 09:29:06 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 08, 2024, 09:04:06 AMIs there a link out there on what Macron said about French troops? This is getting...interesting-er  :shocked:

  Don't know, but France has backed disengagements in Georgia and Texas and Moldovia:

France and Moldova have signed a security cooperation agreement amid threats from Russia, announces French President Emmanuel Macron.

The agreement on defense cooperation between Moldova and France was signed during President Maia Sandu's visit to Paris.

The defense ministers of Moldova and France signed the document. According to Macron, such an agreement envisages "the opening in the coming months of a permanent defense mission in Chisinau." The President has added that this is just the first step.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 08, 2024, 09:32:41 AM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 08, 2024, 09:21:57 AMhttps://www.kyivpost.com/post/29194  also https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/world/europe/ukraine-france-macron-nato.html

Who would have thunk that JudgeDredd has so much pull with the French President.  Is he a Stuart?

  I think Macron's theory is that if you pour on enough definite support for Ukraine, the Russians will see
the whole thing (whatever it is...and has what the Russians actually want ever been clarified?) isn't working and they will stop doing whatever it is they think they are doing (which is pretty unclear except for attacking the Ukraine in curiously mindless way).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 08, 2024, 09:42:12 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on March 08, 2024, 04:52:20 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 08, 2024, 03:32:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2024, 05:45:18 PMffs lets just get it over with already
I agree. Call this ****'s bluff and get in there. Fuck living under the boot of this wanker.

I know what that potentially means. I know it sounds like I'm taking that lightly - I'm not. But the alternative is to live under the threat of nuclear armageddon for the rest of our lives...and really, where's the point of NATO, the UN or any other of these international organisations if we're being handicapped by threats.

Especially as what the Ukrainians have asked all along is that give us weapons and we will do the fighting. As everyone and their dog has mentioned from the beginning, the price for stopping Putin only increases. It would have been easier to do so yesterday, but to do it today will be less than what it will take tomorrow. 

Ok, but what happens when there are no more Ukrainians left to do the fighting? Guns, ammunition and equipment alone will not win this war. That is an accepted fact.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/)

...it seems to me that some of you are suggesting that an actual nuclear war is preferable to the prospect of living with the threat of one. Is this what you're actually saying?

Whoever thought I would be the sole voice of reason!?  :idiot2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 08, 2024, 09:44:28 AM
Wow - thanks for all of the above. Renews my faith while stoking my fear of escalation at the same time  :shocked: 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 08, 2024, 10:17:29 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 08, 2024, 09:42:12 AMOk, but what happens when there are no more Ukrainians left to do the fighting? Guns, ammunition and equipment alone will not win this war. That is an accepted fact.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/)

...it seems to me that some of you are suggesting that an actual nuclear war is preferable to the prospect of living with the threat of one. Is this what you're actually saying?

Whoever thought I would be the sole voice of reason!?  :idiot2:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukraines-army-old-reason-might-have-change-208790 
Ukraine needs to fully mobilize its population if it wants to continue to exist, conscripting malingerers and even its constricted young cohort.  There is no point in protecting the youth of the country if the country will be lost.  Hopefully they will be able to muster and train them in time.

As to nuclear annihilation, to put it simply, some people feel that Putin will push and push, threatening nuclear war to get what he wants.  I believe he wants revenge for the loss of the Soviet Union, regain Russia's "rightful place" as a preeminent superpower and see that the West undergoes a collapse like the Soviet Union did.  When the West is no longer willing to placate this, I am unsure if he is a man of his word when he says better no world than a world without Russia.  Steve Rosenberg's commentary from last February on this:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60551140
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 08, 2024, 10:23:54 AM
Duh, Rosenberg's commentary was from two years ago, 2022.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 08, 2024, 10:30:01 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 08, 2024, 09:42:12 AMOk, but what happens when there are no more Ukrainians left to do the fighting? Guns, ammunition and equipment alone will not win this war. That is an accepted fact.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/)

...it seems to me that some of you are suggesting that an actual nuclear war is preferable to the prospect of living with the threat of one. Is this what you're actually saying?

Whoever thought I would be the sole voice of reason!?  :idiot2:
I'm not saying actual nuclear war is preferable to living under one. What I am saying is living under the threat of nuclear war isn't any way to live either.

If you are suggesting that we don't fight for democracy because Putin decides to say "Look what I have you wankers", then what exactly are you countenancing?

So he finishes with Ukraine. What next? Are you suggesting we let Putin do what he likes to countries outside of NATO? That we don't fight tyranny and fight for democracy just because Putin decides to bandy about the N word (you know what I mean!)?

I'm saying call his bluff and what will be will be. What's the fucking point of having a nuclear deterrent if it's not a fucking deterrent? By your reckoning, he's the only one with a working deterrent...that is "Put troops in there and I'll launch". Where's our "By the way - we have a shit ton as well, and our fucking work" (well apart from Trident which apparently only seems to be capable of destroying it's launch platform...thanks America  :notworthy:  :ThumbsUp:  :grin: )

What I'm actually saying is we should've, many months ago, supported Ukraine to send out a much more powerful "Fuck you" message.

I don't like bullies and he needs a square kick straight in the fucking balls.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 08, 2024, 10:41:55 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 08, 2024, 10:30:01 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 08, 2024, 09:42:12 AMOk, but what happens when there are no more Ukrainians left to do the fighting? Guns, ammunition and equipment alone will not win this war. That is an accepted fact.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/)

...it seems to me that some of you are suggesting that an actual nuclear war is preferable to the prospect of living with the threat of one. Is this what you're actually saying?

Whoever thought I would be the sole voice of reason!?  :idiot2:
I'm not saying actual nuclear war is preferable to living under one. What I am saying is living under the threat of nuclear war isn't any way to live either.

If you are suggesting that we don't fight for democracy because Putin decides to say "Look what I have you wankers", then what exactly are you countenancing?

So he finishes with Ukraine. What next? Are you suggesting we let Putin do what he likes to countries outside of NATO? That we don't fight tyranny and fight for democracy just because Putin decides to bandy about the N word (you know what I mean!)?

I'm saying call his bluff and what will be will be. What's the fucking point of having a nuclear deterrent if it's not a fucking deterrent? By your reckoning, he's the only one with a working deterrent...that is "Put troops in there and I'll launch". Where's our "By the way - we have a shit ton as well, and our fucking work" (well apart from Trident which apparently only seems to be capable of destroying it's launch platform...thanks America  :notworthy:  :ThumbsUp:  :grin: )

What I'm actually saying is we should've, many months ago, supported Ukraine to send out a much more powerful "Fuck you" message.

I don't like bullies and he needs a square kick straight in the fucking balls.

You seem to be dealing in extremes.  Why does it have to be all or nothing? I'm a Cold War kid. Sure, growing up with the spectre of nuclear war was scary, but I'm pretty sure it was far preferable to actual nuclear holocaust.

I'm not suggesting do nothing. I've never suggested do nothing. I'm not suggesting that we let Putin attack nations with impunity. All I'm saying is important questions need to be asked and assessments need to be made. What are the risks? What are the consequences? What are the benefits and costs? It can't just be, "I hate bullies, so lets start World War 3".

I appreciate your passion and conviction and we're all on the same side. But I don't trust our own governments much more than Russia and I'm not convinced that western leadership has the interests of their people or even the Ukrainian people, as the primary driver of a policy of escalation. These are important issues that deserve to be discussed and can't be ignored because "fuck bullies". As you know, this isn't a school yard fight. The stakes are somewhat higher.

I cannot say with certainty that global nuclear annihilation is preferable to some peaceful solution of the war. I don't think that is in the interests of the US, of NATO or the entire world.   
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 08, 2024, 11:28:36 AM
I'm dealing in extremes because that's where we are.

Ukraine is bleeding to death. Russia is just throwing more and more meat at it knowing it can outbleed Ukraine. He knows it. We (the west) know it.

I appreciate nuclear armegeddon isn't for everyone. Seriously though, it's not ideal. Of course not.

But we are where we are.

Russia will not cede the Donbas, nevermind Crimea. Fact.
Ukraine does not want to cede territory to Russia. Fact.

That leaves Ukraine fighting a country that gives zero fucks about people and is willing to throw as many young men as is needed into a meat grinder in order to save face.

Russia is banking on 2 things...
1. The west running out of steam...and he's got valid reasons to bank on that
2. He's banking on the long game - where everyone stands by and watches Ukraine bleed to death...literally...and he's got valid rwasons to bank on that too

He has the winning cards given those two points. The only counter to that is Ukraine being given a huge injection of support. That is the only way this will end in Ukraine's favour.

Any other outcome will show the west as weak, Ukraine as a nation with no blood left and a territory that is like the surface of the moon.

I think you mentioned a while back about support, where will it end, we're only dragging this out. I agree. We ARE only dragging this out unless we get behind Ukraine proper.

Putin wins unless the West gets fully behind Ukraine. As I said in a post way back - that may be without the US and perhaps should be - meaning Europe needs to get it's shit together.

Appeasement didn't work in 1939 and it won't now. In fact, it never has done. It emboldens your enemy and weakens your resolve.

I'll post more shortly - if you (the royal you - not you personally) can be arsed listening to my bollox.  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2024, 11:58:22 AM
currently reading Who Can Hold The Sea: the US Navy in the Cold War 1945 - 1960.  the second chapter, Memo from Moscow pretty much underscores Dredd's post.  I'll try to post quotes later when I'm home.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2024, 12:06:44 PM
ot you could Google George Frost Keenan.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 08, 2024, 04:27:06 PM
I feel your frustration Judge and I've had this conversation hundreds of times this last year with republican coworkers, and the sentiment that Jar is saying is very real.  Americans are split on Ukraine.  Some feel we've done enough, and the 10s of billions should have been enough.  The average American doesn't understand the lesson of Neville Chamberland.  Many feel, we'll wait till they cross article 5.  Personally, I'm all for sending more support to keep Ukraine in the fight, but I'm alone in the circles I frequent.  I see more reaction from people about freeing gaza then helping Ukraine. 

It's unfortunate, but remember, a Korean War frozen conflict ending is a marginal win for Ukraine.  If they survive, that's a win, Sweeden and Finland in Nato = win. 

If the war freezes tomorrow, it's a win for Ukraine.  Frozen conflict at a DMZ seemed to work well for south Korea, they are thriving and I see that working for Ukraine.

I know the sentiment is russia will build up and attack again, but Ukraine will be in a better position too. 

I will say avdivka was a gut check to Ukraine, and like someone mentioned above, where's the mandatory all citizens report for mobilization to the military ?  It seems quite clear there's a manpower issue in Ukraine.  Thinking that western tech will save the day is as false as hitler thinking panthers would win kursk.  This war is soley about who has more men and unlimited artillery, who ever maintains that wins.  Welcome to the Somme 2024.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2024, 04:43:44 PM
but western tech helps the Ukraine attrite the russians manpower and arty advantage far more easily.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 08, 2024, 05:03:30 PM
For sure, I love seeing the weapons of democracy in action as much as you. 

The cold reality is that it's flesh, blood, and artillery rounds that will win this.

It might partially be our fault for selling that false sense of security to Ukraine without having our own house in order.

I still say it's worth it to send 5 billion a year for artillery rounds, patriot missile resupply, himars resupply to keep them fighting.  But the cold reality of the blank checks from Biden in 2022 are over and we should have prepared Ukraine for that.

They are also long over due for total war mobilization, the notion that they could do guns and butter on US tax payers dime was a falsity. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 08, 2024, 07:16:12 PM
Meanwhile, in Bhutan:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2024, 07:38:21 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 08, 2024, 05:03:30 PMI still say it's worth it to send 5 billion a year for artillery rounds, patriot missile resupply, himars resupply to keep them fighting.  But the cold reality of the blank checks from Biden in 2022 are over and we should have prepared Ukraine for that.


that kind of resupply take a lot more then five billion.  I'd rather send money and weapons now then US and NATO troops later.  I agree that Ukraine needs to step up it mobilization if it expects to do better.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 08, 2024, 08:07:37 PM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 08, 2024, 10:30:01 AMSo he finishes with Ukraine. What next? Are you suggesting we let Putin do what he likes to countries outside of NATO? That we don't fight tyranny and fight for democracy just because Putin decides to bandy about the N word (you know what I mean!)?

I'm saying call his bluff and what will be will be. What's the fucking point of having a nuclear deterrent if it's not a fucking deterrent? By your reckoning, he's the only one with a working deterrent...that is "Put troops in there and I'll launch". Where's our "By the way - we have a shit ton as well, and our fucking work" (well apart from Trident which apparently only seems to be capable of destroying it's launch platform...thanks America  :notworthy:  :ThumbsUp:  :grin: )

What I'm actually saying is we should've, many months ago, supported Ukraine to send out a much more powerful "Fuck you" message.

I don't like bullies and he needs a square kick straight in the fucking balls.

  I've been wrong about everything in trying to understand this war.  For example, I honestly thought the Russians would have no trouble overruning Ukraine in a week or two...But here's a weird item from ISW:

Russian military thinkers are openly discussing how Russia can go to war against NATO in the near future. Russian General Staff Military Academy Head Colonel Vladimir Zarudnitsky claimed in a recent article in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) journal Military Thought that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a large-scale war in Europe and that the end of hostilities in Ukraine will not lead to the end of confrontation between the West and Russia.[6]

Okay, does that make any sense?  "The end of hostilities in Ukraine will not lead to the end of confrontation between the West and Russia."?  Which seems to imply the Russians are considering some kind of "end"...which would be what?  What would it be that one might think would "lead to the end of confrontation"?
I think it is possible that the Russians are beginning to think about some "end" that would lead (unexpectedly)
to "confrontation" (not war), obviously they think they can get some deal where they hold on to some big chunk of Ukraine which implies they have implicitly given up on whatever their real project was (which I think nobody knows since as soon as they failed to overrun Ukraine they failed to come up with some other objective).

Anyway, so now I think they are actually trying to drive Ukraine to the negotiating table rather than trying to overrun the whole country.  I think Macron can see this shift and is implying in turn that there is some implicit stop line where France at least will intervene.  This is actually kind of round-about way of implying some kind of ceasefire line, I think.

Anyway, I doubt the Russians are actually interested in pounding on Ukraine for very much longer.  I think we are seeing their last big push right about now.  Of course, I've been wrong every time about this war. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 08, 2024, 08:28:29 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 08, 2024, 04:27:06 PMI feel your frustration Judge and I've had this conversation hundreds of times this last year with republican coworkers, and the sentiment that Jar is saying is very real.  Americans are split on Ukraine.  Some feel we've done enough, and the 10s of billions should have been enough.  The average American doesn't understand the lesson of Neville Chamberland.  Many feel, we'll wait till they cross article 5. Personally, I'm all for sending more support to keep Ukraine in the fight, but I'm alone in the circles I frequent.  I see more reaction from people about freeing gaza then helping Ukraine. 

It's unfortunate, but remember, a Korean War frozen conflict ending is a marginal win for Ukraine.  If they survive, that's a win, Sweeden and Finland in Nato = win. 

If the war freezes tomorrow, it's a win for Ukraine.  Frozen conflict at a DMZ seemed to work well for south Korea, they are thriving and I see that working for Ukraine.

I know the sentiment is russia will build up and attack again, but Ukraine will be in a better position too. 

I will say avdivka was a gut check to Ukraine, and like someone mentioned above, where's the mandatory all citizens report for mobilization to the military ?  It seems quite clear there's a manpower issue in Ukraine.  Thinking that western tech will save the day is as false as hitler thinking panthers would win kursk.  This war is soley about who has more men and unlimited artillery, who ever maintains that wins.  Welcome to the Somme 2024.
Putin is very much hoping for the collapse of NATO or failing that will be willing to test NATO's resolve if he has some level of success in Ukraine.  As to the war, it is being described more and more as trench warfare combined with a high tech arms race to deploy and counter drones which can spot and hit everything.  Ukraine can no longer use its Bayraktar drones as the Russians have effectively countered them with EW and AD. 
https://www.businessinsider.com/turkeys-bayraktar-tb2-drones-ineffective-ukraine-war-2023-5?op=1
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2024, 08:49:18 PM
I can see where russia grinds itself out over the next few months, military aid finally arrives en mass from the west on Ukraine can at least retake whats been lost over the last two months.  thats my minimum short term hope.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 08, 2024, 09:05:55 PM
I don't see Ukraine taking back what it has lost for a long, long time, if ever - without some kind of drastic change in the status quo.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 08, 2024, 09:07:56 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2024, 07:38:21 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 08, 2024, 05:03:30 PMI still say it's worth it to send 5 billion a year for artillery rounds, patriot missile resupply, himars resupply to keep them fighting.  But the cold reality of the blank checks from Biden in 2022 are over and we should have prepared Ukraine for that.


that kind of resupply take a lot more then five billion.  I'd rather send money and weapons now then US and NATO troops later.  I agree that Ukraine needs to step up it mobilization if it expects to do better.
Totally agree, but try selling that to fox news / Tucker watchers.  They've been told this is not our fight.  Their fight is the boarder and woke agenda pushback, and I can't disagree with them there.  Thing is, we can do Ukraine aid, the boarder, and conservatism, but republicans today aren't the republicans of Reagan.  They are populists, totally different agenda.  Notice how the Mitch McConnels and Mitt Rommineys are all tapping out. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2024, 09:17:29 PM
I know and you know we can do both.  a border bill was all but signed and POOF.....
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2024, 09:18:20 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 08, 2024, 09:05:55 PMdon't see Ukraine taking back what it has lost for a long, long time, if ever - without some kind of drastic change in the status quo.

thats why I was specific to whats been gained over the last two months.  baby steps.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 08, 2024, 09:21:23 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 08, 2024, 08:49:18 PMI can see where russia grinds itself out over the next few months, military aid finally arrives en mass from the west on Ukraine can at least retake whats been lost over the last two months.  thats my minimum short term hope.

The problem is, of course, that Russia can't come up with any truce/armistice/ceasefire offer that Ukraine will accept.
Essentially, Russia wants NATO to tell Ukraine to take some kind of deal, which might happen sort of in reverse...NATO says "We are taking over at the X line in Ukraine" and Russia withdraws and leaves a demiliarized zone.  Hostilities end in Ukraine and the "Confrontation" continues (= Russia hasn't surrendered at least in the Russian mind).
So the Russian agenda at this point would go:
1) Push dangerously far into Ukraine
2) Antagonize NATO
3) NATO sees how to end this thing and goes in as far as to some line
4) Presto-change-o hostilities end and "the confrontation continues" ( meaning Russia hasn't surrendered) and
that would be that
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 08, 2024, 11:33:36 PM
Let's go back to Russian logistics. Leaving aside the ethics of anything involved, I was pretty impressed, in a way, that Russia managed to focus enough strength to force Ukraine out of Avdiivka. And without the rest of their line collapsing from lack of supply (and other CCC factors). Of course I realize Russia could only do this by bleeding their own forces white (which I suppose helps logistic problems in a way) and by draining Uk stocks of men and material. But a certain amount of focused support had to happen to get Russia to continue eroding the situation there at all.

I've been out of pocket for a few weeks, and haven't read or heard much about how Russia was able to keep beans and bullets going there (and also enough elsewhere to prevent a vacuum collapse so to speak).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2024, 01:01:55 AM
to be simple about it, they zerg rushed a zone and took advantage of the Ukraine supply problem.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 09, 2024, 04:51:20 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 08, 2024, 09:42:12 AM
Quote from: Crossroads on March 08, 2024, 04:52:20 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 08, 2024, 03:32:51 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 07, 2024, 05:45:18 PMffs lets just get it over with already
I agree. Call this ****'s bluff and get in there. Fuck living under the boot of this wanker.

I know what that potentially means. I know it sounds like I'm taking that lightly - I'm not. But the alternative is to live under the threat of nuclear armageddon for the rest of our lives...and really, where's the point of NATO, the UN or any other of these international organisations if we're being handicapped by threats.

Especially as what the Ukrainians have asked all along is that give us weapons and we will do the fighting. As everyone and their dog has mentioned from the beginning, the price for stopping Putin only increases. It would have been easier to do so yesterday, but to do it today will be less than what it will take tomorrow. 

Ok, but what happens when there are no more Ukrainians left to do the fighting? Guns, ammunition and equipment alone will not win this war. That is an accepted fact.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/)

...it seems to me that some of you are suggesting that an actual nuclear war is preferable to the prospect of living with the threat of one. Is this what you're actually saying?

Whoever thought I would be the sole voice of reason!?  :idiot2:

I am not sure that is an accepted fact, I have not seen many if any reports the manpower per se is what is keeping Ukraine at bay. They've not even mobilised properly yet, something they really should have done eons ago.

This is an industrial struggle at levels not seen long since. Russia for one has lost some 10 000 (that's ten thousand) armoured vehicles of all sorts, something they are struggling to replace. Ukraine, meanwhile, estimated losses somewhat one third of that, is equally struggling to replace their armoured losses. Then there's the massive amounts of munition burned day in day out.

What I have read is indeed it is the war material they need to keep the front stable, in addition to financial aid of course, as Russia is busy hitting any and all valuable targets, civil and military.

Sort of at meta political level, it is up to each country to decide what if any support they will give, as it should be, too. The silver lining with the current situation is that maybe, just maybe the (Western) Europe starts to take the security situation seriously, instead of cheap lip service.

In the meanwhile, was it Lawrence Freedman who summarised a couple of weeks ago, that we sort of have an idea what difficulties Ukraine is facing at the moment, and in near future, while we pretty much have no idea what's going on and in within Russia.

Let us see what happens after Russian "elections", if and how they go into full Mordor mode.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 09, 2024, 05:20:18 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 08, 2024, 11:33:36 PMLet's go back to Russian logistics. Leaving aside the ethics of anything involved, I was pretty impressed, in a way, that Russia managed to focus enough strength to force Ukraine out of Avdiivka. And without the rest of their line collapsing from lack of supply (and other CCC factors). Of course I realize Russia could only do this by bleeding their own forces white (which I suppose helps logistic problems in a way) and by draining Uk stocks of men and material. But a certain amount of focused support had to happen to get Russia to continue eroding the situation there at all.

I've been out of pocket for a few weeks, and haven't read or heard much about how Russia was able to keep beans and bullets going there (and also enough elsewhere to prevent a vacuum collapse so to speak).
I honestly don't think there's anything to be impressed by there.

And you kind of answered your own statement - losing bodies helps ease supply problems.

They threw bodies at it and managed to gain a few kilometers. I would imagine the reason they were able to put supply in Avdiivka without crumbling elsewhere is likely because Ukraine weren't really pushing elsewhere.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 09, 2024, 06:15:42 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2024, 01:01:55 AMto be simple about it, they zerg rushed a zone and took advantage of the Ukraine supply problem.

There's a lot in ISW's assessments today.  Supposedly the Russians pulled some actual adaptive moves in their attack.
The Ukrainians seem to have been caught off-guard.  It might have been more of a one-time lucky break for the Russians rather than anything systematic.  Meanwhile ISW thinks the Russians are glide bombing as much as ever, though again that might be somewhat of an illusion in that during the peak of their recent offensive a lot of their guide-bomb approaches got shot down...consequently, the Russians are "continuing" (in their sense of appearing to do something so it doesn't look like they are giving up completely) to glide-bomb.
Also meanwhile, the Europeans appear to be getting serious about steadily supplying Ukraine (for example, saying their supply system envisions a run clear to 2027)
Well, why now?  Just because Ukraine is having trouble?  No, because it looks like supporting Ukraine will ensure the defeat of Russia.
It might be like this -- Europe had reasoned -- why support Ukraine if Russia is going to win anyway?  But I think now the writing is on the wall:  Russia isn't going anywhere in Ukraine and a hint of victory is in the air (if only from Russia's insistance that it will "continue"  -- not win, but "continue") and that's enough to bring more European support.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 09, 2024, 09:33:19 AM
Some of you guys are so emotionally invested in the outcome of this war that you seem incapable of acknowledging cold hard truths. The reality is that Ukraine has very little chance of winning the war as it stands with the present status quo. Ever since the failure of the much-anticipated summer 2023 counteroffensive, there have been increasing quarrels over strategy among political and military elites, Ukraine's pool of soldiers (volunteer and those within reach of the draft) have begun to dry up, Ukraine's economy has been in shambles and the ability of its allies to keep arms flowing is in doubt. Finally, and perhaps most distressing, I perceive that Ukrainians' own conviction that they can and will win is shaken and beginning to falter. In short, Russia has the strategic initiative and Ukraine has tremendous obstacles to overcome in order to shift the balance back into its favor.

1. Moscow is fighting a much smarter, more capable war and while neat twitter videos of Russian vehicles blowing up are cool, they do not show the big picture. Russia has been able to convert its major size advantages into battlefield gains. Russia has a bigger economy, a bigger arms industry, and a bigger population than Ukraine. These are unassailable facts, and in this war, they matter. Compounding this, the Russian military, much as it did in WWII, has learned from its mistakes...poor logistics, unsuitable and badly maintained equipment, failure to arrange "defenses in depth", etc. The Russians also closed the electronic and drone gap and cut the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones and precision weapons by dispersing potential targets, learning how to jam communications, and scrambling GPS signals. Furthermore, Russian troops have constructed deep and well-designed defensive zones with layers of antitank ditches, dragon's teeth, mines, and prepared firing positions. The cost of breaching these zones is prohibitively high for Ukrainian attacks.

Facts - Russia draws on a population that is more than 3Xs the size of Ukraine's, and its economy is 10Xs as big. Ukraine's ammunition stocks have been so depleted that they were rationing bullets in Avdiivka. On the other hand, Russia has plenty of weapons and munitions for its artillery and infantry and Western sanctions have been ineffective at curtailing this since Russia has adapted and discovered ways to dramatically increase its war-industry output (see below). This is a war of attrition and the longer it lasts, the more Russia is favored to win.

2. Russia is arguably at an advantage due simply to its political system. Even a "quasi" democracy such as Ukraine must heed political and institutional norms and processes, public opinion, and international humanitarian law. Russia, an autocracy, on the other hand, need not. Putting aside the obvious political advantages of what is essentially a dictatorship when it comes to fighting a war, how do the political differences translate into gains or losses in the war?

First, manpower.  Putin does not need to justify the astronomical human toll the war has taken. Conscription is very uneven geographically and socially. Soldiers often come from poorer groups and regions while Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other cities show few signs of military mobilization. In 2022-2023, the Russian ranks were filled with criminals and convicts. When soldiers are hurt or wounded, they receive superficial medical care and are returned to the front without delay. By contrast, Ukraine must agonize over recruitment decisions. Of the volunteers who signed up in the early days of the war, only the most severely injured have been discharged. The rest are either dead or still fighting. Corruption in the draft system is a big problem too. The urge to avoid service in the trenches led to widespread bribery and many draft age men have fled the country.

As noted above, there is the unavoidable fact that Ukraine just has a much smaller pool of potential recruits than Russia. Ukraine has three times as many men in their forties as in their twenties. largely due to economic depression in the 1990s and low birth rates. The search for soldiers has led recruitment officers to raid gyms and shopping centers and take men from their villages without warning. At the same time, Ukraine must consider the demands of an economy that is lacking labor due to the military's manpower needs.

Second, allies. Russia is overcoming Western sanctions through the help of Abu Dhabi, Beijing, New Delhi, Pyongyang, and Tehran who gladly sell drones, ammo, and goods it can no longer procure elsewhere while in exchange buying Russian minerals, petrochemicals, and other exports. With the exception of India, all these partners are autocracies whose citizens have few if any rights and therefore cannot protest the actions of their governments. Meanwhile, Ukraine has western democracies who tend to be less resolute because they are responsible to their constituents. NATO faces challenges due to a handful of recalcitrant members (Hungary, I'm looking at you) and we all know what its happening in the halls of Congress.

I think the only bright spot in this war for Ukraine is its maritime successes and ability to sink Russian warships. A third of the Black Sea Fleet is at the bottom of the Sea. Ukraine's success at making the Black Sea unsafe for Russia's navy has kept alive a vital transport corridor that commercial ships can use to reach Odessa. But this alone will not be enough to win the war. With Russia holding the initiative, and with Ukraine facing massive shortages of both troops and ammo, it is difficult to see how Ukraine can regain ground. I'm not suggesting that a favorable outcome for Ukraine in a war of attrition is totally impossible, but it would require it to outlast a numerically superior enemy through a very long war. Russia, given its advantage in troops and materiel, can simply play a game of endurance.

This outlook gives me no joy, but it is how I see the war and its present strategic balance, or rather, imbalance.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 09, 2024, 10:15:29 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 09, 2024, 09:33:19 AMSome of you guys are so emotionally invested in the outcome of this war that you seem incapable of acknowledging cold hard truths.

  The really cold hard truth is that Ukraine has never had a chance of winning this war on her own.  The other cold hard truths are:
1) Losing the Black Sea is a very serious problem for Russia.  For one thing, Turkiye is pretty much all in on the
Ukrainian side now and is building corvettes for Ukraine.
2) Iran and North Korea are about the two worst allies anyone could have.
3) You can't win a war by attrition alone.  No one ever has.  Sooner or later push comes to shove and it is already far far far Far too late for Russia to pull off any serious advances
4) The apparent autocratic advantage that Russia has is in fact incredibly fragile.  When Putin goes?  What happens?
5) NATO is narrowing its options.  Can NATO afford a defeat in Ukraine?  No.  It cannot and it is becoming clear that
Russia and NATO both see this and some kind of compromise solution (eg. a demiliarized zone) is increasingly likely
6) Given all that, I'd say Russia is looking for a way to look good (ie "continuing") while actually backing off
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2024, 10:34:55 AM
while I don't disagree JH, I think that if elements of western democracies hadnt fucked around playing political games over the last year the Ukraine would be in a far better position right now.  domestically Im not just blaming the right.  the current administration could have done a lot more a lot quicker.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2024, 10:36:06 AM
these are the morons that Ukraine is fighting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1766105373793009920
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 09, 2024, 10:49:08 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2024, 10:34:55 AMwhile I don't disagree JH, I think that if elements of western democracies hadnt fucked around playing political games over the last year the Ukraine would be in a far better position right now.  domestically Im not just blaming the right.  the current administration could have done a lot more a lot quicker.

I agree with your point, I only question what more means and whether the cost of doing it outweighs the benefit.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2024, 11:01:00 AM
I think the benefits outweigh the costs.  the west's support has wrecked the russian military for pennies on the dollar and I'm all in for calling the bullies bluff to this day.
the Ukraine has done an amazing job blunting the russian army while only being given bits and pieces of western kit thats ment to be used as a coherent whole. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 09, 2024, 12:25:15 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2024, 11:01:00 AMI think the benefits outweigh the costs.  the west's support has wrecked the russian military for pennies on the dollar and I'm all in for calling the bullies bluff to this day.
the Ukraine has done an amazing job blunting the russian army while only being given bits and pieces of western kit thats ment to be used as a coherent whole. 

This is where I stand as well. While I am obviously biased, as everyone is, hopefully, Ukraine when not left alone is or at least should be well willing and able to defend herself.

While Russia is bigger of the two, manpower should not be the issue. Will to fight together with proper equipment should balance the books more.

And, the world is moving towards a place where authoritarian countries more and more probe by the bayonet, moving forward when weakness is expected. Time to stock up on deterrence.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 09, 2024, 01:23:51 PM
We should ensure that Ukraine can resupply the weapons we've sent them, so they can continue to defend themselves and fend off any further avdivka situations.  But this really seems like a frozen conflict DMZ situation.  It's really about preserving Ukrainian lives, so they can live to fight another day or even better, live as a deterrence to a future fight.  Freezing the conflict will allow for fortification of the country and actually getting them western weapons in large numbers to make ä difference.




Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 09, 2024, 02:52:15 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 09, 2024, 09:33:19 AMSome of you guys are so emotionally invested in the outcome of this war that you seem incapable of acknowledging cold hard truths. The reality is that Ukraine has very little chance of winning the war as it stands with the present status quo.
I'm genuinely not incapable of acknowledging  the cold hard truths.

In fact, I've said all along (memory permitting) that Ukraine needed more investment than what they wer egetting...and I don't mean money. I mean airpower, boots on the ground...I'm talking NATO involvement.

We can't just fight "third world" countries in the name of peace and democracy and not acknowledge that elsewhere when it's against (arguably) a more competent nation. In case anyone is in any doubt, I'm talking about getting involved in 1991 in the liberation of Kuwait (correctly) and now. This is a similar thing...a country's border and freedom has been challenged. In 1991, we got involved. In 2022, we didn't. You (again, royal you) tell me the difference (without mentioning money).

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 09, 2024, 09:33:19 AMI perceive that Ukrainians' own conviction that they can and will win is shaken and beginning to falter. In short, Russia has the strategic initiative and Ukraine has tremendous obstacles to overcome in order to shift the balance back into its favor.
Ukraine is not going to win this war. Not ever. At least not without full, unadulterated support from the west. That means NATO...or at the very least, the full, unadulterated backing of the EU. They can't win. They will run out of blood, money, equipment. Russia will outlast them - regardless of what the West putsd in - unless that is a full on, hard core entry of the West.

Your (not the royal you in this case) argument is the argument of advocating isolationism. That's fine - if that's where you stand - but my argument is that it's not where we should be standing. I agree with you. Money, bombs, the odd tank squadron, an occasional F-16 fighter, some air defence euquipment - is only going to slow down the death of Ukraine.

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 09, 2024, 09:33:19 AM1. Moscow is fighting a much smarter, more capable war and while neat twitter videos of Russian vehicles blowing up are cool, they do not show the big picture. Russia has been able to convert its major size advantages into battlefield gains. Russia has a bigger economy, a bigger arms industry, and a bigger population than Ukraine. These are unassailable facts, and in this war, they matter. Compounding this, the Russian military, much as it did in WWII, has learned from its mistakes...poor logistics, unsuitable and badly maintained equipment, failure to arrange "defenses in depth", etc. The Russians also closed the electronic and drone gap and cut the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones and precision weapons by dispersing potential targets, learning how to jam communications, and scrambling GPS signals. Furthermore, Russian troops have constructed deep and well-designed defensive zones with layers of antitank ditches, dragon's teeth, mines, and prepared firing positions. The cost of breaching these zones is prohibitively high for Ukrainian attacks.
Again - I'm not arguing.

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 09, 2024, 09:33:19 AMFacts - Russia draws on a population that is more than 3Xs the size of Ukraine's, and its economy is 10Xs as big. Ukraine's ammunition stocks have been so depleted that they were rationing bullets in Avdiivka. On the other hand, Russia has plenty of weapons and munitions for its artillery and infantry and Western sanctions have been ineffective at curtailing this since Russia has adapted and discovered ways to dramatically increase its war-industry output (see below). This is a war of attrition and the longer it lasts, the more Russia is favored to win.
No argument. But - I'd like to see the figures of Russia against NATO, not just Ukraine...because that's what I am advocating.

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 09, 2024, 09:33:19 AM2. Russia is arguably at an advantage due simply to its political system. Even a "quasi" democracy such as Ukraine must heed political and institutional norms and processes, public opinion, and international humanitarian law. Russia, an autocracy, on the other hand, need not. Putting aside the obvious political advantages of what is essentially a dictatorship when it comes to fighting a war, how do the political differences translate into gains or losses in the war?

First, manpower.  Putin does not need to justify the astronomical human toll the war has taken. Conscription is very uneven geographically and socially. Soldiers often come from poorer groups and regions while Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other cities show few signs of military mobilization. In 2022-2023, the Russian ranks were filled with criminals and convicts. When soldiers are hurt or wounded, they receive superficial medical care and are returned to the front without delay. By contrast, Ukraine must agonize over recruitment decisions. Of the volunteers who signed up in the early days of the war, only the most severely injured have been discharged. The rest are either dead or still fighting. Corruption in the draft system is a big problem too. The urge to avoid service in the trenches led to widespread bribery and many draft age men have fled the country.

As noted above, there is the unavoidable fact that Ukraine just has a much smaller pool of potential recruits than Russia. Ukraine has three times as many men in their forties as in their twenties. largely due to economic depression in the 1990s and low birth rates. The search for soldiers has led recruitment officers to raid gyms and shopping centers and take men from their villages without warning. At the same time, Ukraine must consider the demands of an economy that is lacking labor due to the military's manpower needs.

Second, allies. Russia is overcoming Western sanctions through the help of Abu Dhabi, Beijing, New Delhi, Pyongyang, and Tehran who gladly sell drones, ammo, and goods it can no longer procure elsewhere while in exchange buying Russian minerals, petrochemicals, and other exports. With the exception of India, all these partners are autocracies whose citizens have few if any rights and therefore cannot protest the actions of their governments. Meanwhile, Ukraine has western democracies who tend to be less resolute because they are responsible to their constituents. NATO faces challenges due to a handful of recalcitrant members (Hungary, I'm looking at you) and we all know what its happening in the halls of Congress.

I think the only bright spot in this war for Ukraine is its maritime successes and ability to sink Russian warships. A third of the Black Sea Fleet is at the bottom of the Sea. Ukraine's success at making the Black Sea unsafe for Russia's navy has kept alive a vital transport corridor that commercial ships can use to reach Odessa. But this alone will not be enough to win the war. With Russia holding the initiative, and with Ukraine facing massive shortages of both troops and ammo, it is difficult to see how Ukraine can regain ground. I'm not suggesting that a favorable outcome for Ukraine in a war of attrition is totally impossible, but it would require it to outlast a numerically superior enemy through a very long war. Russia, given its advantage in troops and materiel, can simply play a game of endurance.

This outlook gives me no joy, but it is how I see the war and its present strategic balance, or rather, imbalance.
I could not agree more.

But again your arguments are based on "support" for Ukraine. I'm talking about Support.

First and foremost, I'd like to see the West form a defensive pact with Ukraine - much like the UK did with Poland in WWII.

I know the horse has bolted here. In WWII Poland hadn't been invaded by Germany when the UK signed the pact - but we could at least sign it as an ongoing concern...continue your assault on the "free and democratic" (I'll put that in quotes for some people here who might want it in quotes) nation of Ukraine and we will get involved.

That's the first step.

We'll see where we are after that...but in between, step up production capacity. Armour. Shells. Drones. Missiles. Then get to personnel.

I am under no illusions - Ukraine winning this war against Russia involves the West's involvement. Whether that includes America or not is in question - and whether it could even succeed without America's involvement is also debateable.

I'm utterly gobsmacked at the West's lack of integrity in getting involved in a war they absolutely should be front and centre in.

Iraq 1991 - yes.
Bosnia - yes.
Kosovo - yes.
Afghanistan - No.
Iraq 2003 - No.
Libya - No.
Syria - No.
Ukraine - 100% YES.

Ukraine is a free and democratic country that has been invaded by another country. That is the kind of fight that needs to be fought. As Kuwait in 1991.

As nations, you can pick your fights - but you will be judged on the kind of fights you pick (again - the royal you).

I may not have reacted properly to yourt post JH - it's difficult to quote/edit such a large post in such a small window - but I did the best I could.

I would end on this...and I do think I've mentioned this before.

If we (the west) are to kowtow to Putin simply because he mentions he's got Nukes...where exactly does that leave us?

I know - as NATO - that leaves us in the realm of "Do what you like - we are NATO and we will deliver when you attack one of our countries"...though I personally think we would be/currently are sending out a message of "Well, just be aware we might defend each other - it really depends on the stakes"...but I'm talking about protecting a sovereign nation from abuse/invasion/capitulation...where does that leave us then?

I'll tell you - "You crack on pal...nothing to see here".

So yeah - as NATO, we're "secure" (although I would argue Putin is working on that). But as nations that believe in demoocracy and defending that democracy, I say that leaves us bare. Naked. And Putin then knows where he stands.

Sorry. I understand this comes across as a wee bit emotional. Perhaps even dismssive. I truly tell you I'm not being dismissive about Nuclear War. I will admit to being emotinal. I am passionate that we get involved in conflicts that require our assistance and stay out of ones that do not.

This particular conflict, I do believe, we need to be an active part of. He needs to understand that our resolve cannot be bought by using the N word.

I don't thinK I could be any clearer than that.

One thing I would like to say - as you mentioned the X videos. I don't like them. They cheapen life. Yeah - I'v ecalled for the removal of the "cockroaches" from Ukraine. That's my bad - dewhumanising them. They are simply soing their masters will - as is every member military. When I see those bodies fly, it makes me sick to my stomach. Sick to my stomach that we can take pleasure in seeing such carnage. I don't have a clue who those soldiers were or what they had been through. They could be conscripts for all I know...not really wanting to be there or perhaps volunsteering because of the lies their government have told them or maybe even they needed the money being offered by the Russian government.

What I do know is people are dying for a cunt. That needs to be put in check. Now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 09, 2024, 03:00:43 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 09, 2024, 01:23:51 PM...It's really about preserving Ukrainian lives, so they can live to fight another day or even better, live as a deterrence to a future fight.  Freezing the conflict will allow for fortification of the country and actually getting them western weapons in large numbers to make ä difference.
That is not our call. That's Ukraines call. Our call is whether we can give Ukraine every, single centilla of support we can in order to force russia to the table and give Ukraine it's country back...even if that equates to us telling Ukraine "Look...your best deal to get your nation back is for us to tell Russia you will not be part of the EU or NATO...if we can tell them that, and they l4eave, then that's a win

But ultimately, whether Ukraine cedes territory is only governed by the west in terms of support. Ukraine has already made it clear they are not willing to cede territory...but they might be willing to tell Russia they will not seek NATO or EU admission.

That might be enough (might) for Russia to save face and fuck off.

If that could be done, then the EU countries could sign a defensive pact with Ukrainer in order to secure that deal...no admission to NATO or the EU.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 09, 2024, 03:04:39 PM
Remember Wagner?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 09, 2024, 05:52:06 PM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 09, 2024, 03:00:43 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 09, 2024, 01:23:51 PM...It's really about preserving Ukrainian lives, so they can live to fight another day or even better, live as a deterrence to a future fight.  Freezing the conflict will allow for fortification of the country and actually getting them western weapons in large numbers to make ä difference.
That is not our call. That's Ukraines call. Our call is whether we can give Ukraine every, single centilla of support we can in order to force russia to the table and give Ukraine it's country back...even if that equates to us telling Ukraine "Look...your best deal to get your nation back is for us to tell Russia you will not be part of the EU or NATO...if we can tell them that, and they l4eave, then that's a win

But ultimately, whether Ukraine cedes territory is only governed by the west in terms of support. Ukraine has already made it clear they are not willing to cede territory...but they might be willing to tell Russia they will not seek NATO or EU admission.

That might be enough (might) for Russia to save face and fuck off.

If that could be done, then the EU countries could sign a defensive pact with Ukrainer in order to secure that deal...no admission to NATO or the EU.

France is assembling an alliance of countries that are open to sending Western troops to Ukraine.

The French point out that nobody has any obligation to Russia in terms of not sending troops to Ukraine.  Moreover, it might be much cheaper in the long run for all concerned to send a couple of French Armored Divisions and shut this war down.

Be that as it may...why did Russia leak the conversation where the Germans said it might be a good idea just to send some troops to Ukraine?  Why leak that unless you want an excuse for shutting down this war?

As the French say:

"It is not for Russia to tell us how we should help Ukraine in the coming months or years," Séjourné said at a meeting chaired by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis and attended by his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba. "It is not for Russia to organize how we deploy our actions, or to set red lines. So we decide it among us."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 09, 2024, 06:17:36 PM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 09, 2024, 03:00:43 PMIf that could be done, then the EU countries could sign a defensive pact with Ukrainer in order to secure that deal...no admission to NATO or the EU.

It's too late for that.  Ukraine had a deal with Russia and gave up its nukes.  and then Russia attacked them in 2014.
What kind of a deal can Russia offer?  What kind of ceasefire would anyone expect them to keep?

France will have to send in troops and shut this war down in any case since the Russians can't be trusted.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2024, 10:14:24 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1766504217928446329
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 09, 2024, 10:15:34 PM
and a massive Ukrainian drone strike probably took out another A-50 awacs on the ground.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 10, 2024, 01:45:09 AM
Russia is is well versed in first creating problems then offering solutions to said self-created problems if only her reasonable demands are met. In the beginning of the war, creating a global famine was in the playbook. Luckily, that did not pan out.

Another example by the way of Russian reflexive control where for reasons what may there were no neutral fleet created to secure the seaway in fear of escalation I suppose. Would be nice to see Russia for once offered an escalation threat.

Regardless, this is such good news.

https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1766476595118653949
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 10, 2024, 10:19:03 AM
Nice overview of the state of drone warfare in Ukraine. Taught me a bit about Ukraine's locally developed Raybird 3, long range drone.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 10, 2024, 12:13:35 PM
There is a lot of focus on the battles but history has taught us the logistics and economic factors coupled with the socioeconomic will eventually lead to an eventual winner 
Either through force of arms or collapse at home 
Russia has made a lot of economic moves for short term tactical stability 
Eventually all those interconnected levers will start bearing down in many diverse ways  Some can be forecasted but many will be a surprise  and not a pleasant one for the Russians
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 10, 2024, 02:15:06 PM
in that vein of thinking I would have to give a ton of credit to the EU in keeping the Ukrainian economy above water.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 10, 2024, 09:49:25 PM
So, um, huh. Did anyone have St. Petersburg on their bingo card?

Links collected by the Enforcer. Gorelovo Industrial goes up southern corner of the west port area:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1bbfy78/it_is_reported_that_in_the_gorelovo_industrial/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

And at the airport, far south side of the city:

https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1766876146543542569?s=20

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1bbbt2k/in_st_petersburg_explosions_were_heard_near_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1766907497229554109?s=20


Was that where you were hearing about the A-50 getting thwacked, Star? Edit: non-ammo warehouse of some sort? Doesn't seem to be a hanger...?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 11, 2024, 09:37:57 AM
Another guy who has to be careful to not get too close to windows, or engage in drunken games of 'toss the live grenade on an airplane.'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-sacks-russian-navy-chief-amid-crippling-losses/ar-BB1jGjAc?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=03971aa751024eccb255b32d1b3101ad&ei=29 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-sacks-russian-navy-chief-amid-crippling-losses/ar-BB1jGjAc?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=03971aa751024eccb255b32d1b3101ad&ei=29)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 11, 2024, 10:50:14 AM
QuoteWas that where you were hearing about the A-50 getting thwacked, Star? Edit: non-ammo warehouse of some sort? Doesn't seem to be a hanger...?

no, I don't think it was near St Petersburg.  iirc it was an aerodrome outside Moscow.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2024, 07:11:20 AM
never ever ever ever ever ever get on a russian plane.  :nono2:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1767505369155138001
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2024, 08:07:45 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIdxMw6XcAAqAjN?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 12, 2024, 08:19:27 AM
Interesting analysis here...Will argues that Ukraine and Russia are both stronger today than they were on day 1 of the war with neither side being anywhere near collapse.


Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2024, 12:31:15 PM
rumor has it that the IL 76 that went down was ferrying an A 50 crew back to base.

 :ROFL:   :RockOn:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2024, 12:33:03 PM
also reports of some kind of mass border raid into russia territory.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 12, 2024, 01:49:22 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2024, 12:33:03 PMalso reports of some kind of mass border raid into russia territory.

multiple points of advance... mixed results
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2024, 09:11:49 PM
really kinda funny how the Czechs keep finding all these 100s of 1000s of artillery shells....

:3musketeer:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1767670055276351890
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 13, 2024, 12:59:34 AM
what's a decimal place or two among friends, especially those with deep pockets?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 13, 2024, 04:50:47 AM
It may sound cynical, but a slow burning war is better for the military-industrial complex and weapons science and development then a quick Ukrainian victory and with a Russia that may get irrational in behavior when they start loosing their precious 2014 ground gains

Ukraine war already proved itself as a test bed for new former seen "exotic" weapons, especially drones of all kind and sizes and the tactics to mass use them. Robots will be next. 

We have to learn those tactics to use and especially to counter them, also when in the hand of terrorist groups.

what is a Kampfgruppe of good'ol modern tanks and AFV good for when each and every enemy soldier and his dog carry a personal unjamable FPV drone with a range of 10 klicks?

Recently a Russian FPV drone was recovered which has a 10klick optical wire guidance, so no emissions to jam and a brilliant video data link back to the operator to separate real targets from mock-ups and also to identify the week spot to hit on a target

well, a drone is still a flimsy object in the sky with a radar echo, so a kind of a tiny tiny  CIWS dome maybe even with just .22lr rounds in addition to the Trophy APS may be an idea
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2024, 06:01:30 AM
my moneys on vehicle mounted energy weapons to defeat drones and atgms.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 13, 2024, 06:08:19 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 12, 2024, 12:33:03 PMalso reports of some kind of mass border raid into russia territory.
Just a friendly reminder from Russians to their fellow Russians that even in a rigged election that there are alternatives to Putin.  The timing, with the election March 15-17 is obviously not coincidental.  One possible way Russians can protest the election is by not turning out.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 13, 2024, 06:44:50 AM
Quote from: MikeGER on March 13, 2024, 04:50:47 AMRecently a Russian FPV drone was recovered which has a 10klick optical wire guidance

...wait, what?! How does that even work? Seems like even a spider-web wire would drag going 10 km.  :huh:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2024, 07:12:07 AM
just for the giggles I looked up monofilament and you can get 3000 yards for 10 lbs weight.  if your flying low your pretty much only carrying whats attached to the drone.  whats left on the ground is essentially left behind.  so with a large enough drone it seems possible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MikeGER on March 13, 2024, 08:01:03 AM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 13, 2024, 06:44:50 AM
Quote from: MikeGER on March 13, 2024, 04:50:47 AMRecently a Russian FPV drone was recovered which has a 10klick optical wire guidance

...wait, what?! How does that even work? Seems like even a spider-web wire would drag going 10 km.  :huh:

here is an english language source... i had first read about in German these days

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/fpv_drones_on_fiber_optic_cables_are_tested_on_battlefield_by_russians_such_uavs_fear_no_jammer-9758.html   

on wire durability
the SipkeLR2 unwinds a 5.5 km optical wire, travels way faster then a drone, and has hot exhaust fumes to cope with too

if the wire breaks,i would have build in a function to jettison the warhead, rise high to a semi-save altitude, and fly back to a preset landing point to be refurbished.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 13, 2024, 02:41:54 PM
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-troops-shoot-balloons-learn-to-defeat-dangerous-drone-threat-2024-3

Maybe very long sequiturs secateurs would be good too for the optical wire guided ones.  (I'm the one that needs sequiturs!)

But seriously, watching footage of Bayraktar drones smashing Armenian targets in Nagorno-Karabakh war was horrifying enough, but now, one of the articles posted previously talks about Russian autonomous drones with motion detection following targets into buildings.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 13, 2024, 04:10:08 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 13, 2024, 02:41:54 PMBut seriously, watching footage of Bayraktar drones smashing Armenian targets in Nagorno-Karabakh war was horrifying enough, but now, one of the articles posted previously talks about Russian autonomous drones with motion detection following targets into buildings.

In that Daily Mail explainer I posted several days back on drones in Ukraine, it noted that Ukraine is working on armed autonomous AI piloted drones as well. The reason? They are not subject to signal jamming.

Armed robot killers are closer to reality than we think.

https://www.grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=26039.msg738172#msg738172 (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=26039.msg738172#msg738172)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 13, 2024, 05:35:49 PM
Good idea on the optical wire, remember the TOW missile had a spooling optical wire for guidance back in the day.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 13, 2024, 08:06:42 PM
Yeah, but TOW had some obvious limits in both distance and how clear the ground had to be to keep the wire from snapping.

However, if the drone is carrying the spool, that fixes the 'drag across obstacle' problem at least: it's laying down a trail instead (so to speak).
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 13, 2024, 08:48:38 PM
to some degree its gotten boring but never old.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1768006936446824863
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 14, 2024, 08:22:02 PM
so whats France up to?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1768380703077462465
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 15, 2024, 08:40:43 AM
Good video explaining what France is up to.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 15, 2024, 08:41:29 AM
Good video explaining what France is up to.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 15, 2024, 03:37:25 PM
Quote from: Gusington on March 15, 2024, 08:40:43 AMGood video explaining what France is up to.

  And Poland:
adosław Sikorski, the head of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has issued a stark warning to Vladimir Putin, suggesting that the West could take actions that the Russian president would not anticipate.

In an interview with "Gazeta Wyborcza," Sikorski emphasized the importance of keeping Putin worried about the West's potential moves.

"The point is to make Vladimir Putin worry about what we will do to him. And we can do something he does not expect," Sikorski stated.

A Shift in France's Stance Since the War's Outset
Sikorski was also asked about the evolution of France's position since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, where initially President Emmanuel Macron sought mediation, to his recent statements not ruling out the possibility of sending NATO troops to aid Ukraine.

"We all tried to persuade Russia to behave according to certain rules. [...] I think that in the period leading up to the war and for some time after its outbreak, President Macron hoped that Putin would show reason and make a rational calculation based on his interests, and that France could play the role of a mediator," the head of Polish diplomacy remarked.

"Eventually, he had to recognize that it was hopeless, that this man never keeps his word," he added.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 15, 2024, 03:39:38 PM
^"Strategic ambiguity"
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Skoop on March 15, 2024, 08:10:09 PM
Lol, well the alt right in America thinks macron being tough on Putin is a front to cover up his wife being a man......lol, I swear you can't make this stuff up. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 15, 2024, 08:16:56 PM
Quote from: Skoop on March 15, 2024, 08:10:09 PMLol, well the alt right in America thinks macron being tough on Putin is a front to cover up his wife being a man......lol, I swear you can't make this stuff up. 
What the truth that he met her at fifteen, she his forty year old teacher isn't racy enough?  https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/emmanuel-brigitte-macron-wife-teacher/ 

Vive les Français!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 16, 2024, 07:39:30 AM
Quote from: Gusington on March 15, 2024, 03:39:38 PM^"Strategic ambiguity"

And some more "ambiguity":

Greece has joined the demining coalition initiated by Lithuania and established within the framework of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (Ramstein format).

Source: Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias during a visit to Vilnius on 15 March, European Pravda reports

Details: In his speech, Dendias emphasised Greece's support for Ukraine and said the invasion was "a gross violation of its national sovereignty and international law".

"And we are pleased to have recently joined the demining coalition under your leadership and signed the agreement in your presence in Brussels," he added, addressing his Lithuanian counterpart Arvydas Anušauskas.

Anušauskas, in turn, thanked Greece for joining the Ukraine demining coalition, which is jointly led by Lithuania and Iceland.
"We need to send out a mutual message about our steadfast commitment to continue supporting Ukraine," the Lithuanian defence minister added.

Background:

・The demining coalition encompasses elements of both humanitarian mine clearance in Ukraine's liberated territories and combat mine clearance in the contact zone with Russian troops.

・In January, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence hosted the demining coalition's first meeting, at which representatives of the countries willing to join the coalition discussed their plans and further work.

・In total, the coalition includes about 20 countries, with Czechia and Hungary being among the most recent members.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 16, 2024, 07:41:32 AM
Quote from: Skoop on March 15, 2024, 08:10:09 PMLol, well the alt right in America thinks macron being tough on Putin is a front to cover up his wife being a man......lol, I swear you can't make this stuff up. 

How does being tough on Putin cover up the possibility that your wife is a man?  Does that seem to imply that
"real woman-loving men" hate Putin or something?  I'm trying to follow the implied logic there.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 16, 2024, 09:42:50 AM
We should probably leave that at the front door for two reasons -
1. it's none of anyone's business (in other words, who cares) and
2. it's nothing to do with this thread

I was struggling to understand how Europe could get it's way into this and I never saw this - but I think countries signing defensive pacts is potentially a way. It was the final straw in Hitlers expansionism so it could work here I guess.

NATO doesn't want to get involved - and therefore Europe would be "hobbled" in trying to do anything - so signing defensive pacts by individual nations and showing a stand would be one way for Europe to get the fuck in there without involving NATO.

But - Europe needs to make sure what "getting involved" means. And I'm not sure they have the same understanding as I have.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2024, 01:09:05 PM
because russia....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIzMb6jWAAAvCWq?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 17, 2024, 03:49:17 PM
I kind of admire that in a way!

Meanwhile, also because Russia, an unused Hind that couldn't fly for decades and which hasn't had security on it for years, is hit by a drone in Moldavia, detonating its freshly filled fuel tank, and footage is caught with its freshly installed security camera.

Russia declares Ukraine just started a war with Moldavia.

Moldavia declares STFU.

The Enforcer traces the story from yesterday:

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 17, 2024, 03:54:43 PM
I think it's a mouldy Mi-8, but I could be wrong the footage is really poor and then it's on fire.  Great source, first I'm hearing of it.  As for the Frankentractor, it would beat pushing the gun.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: W8taminute on March 17, 2024, 07:17:40 PM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 16, 2024, 09:42:50 AMWe should probably leave that at the front door for two reasons -
1. it's none of anyone's business (in other words, who cares) and
2. it's nothing to do with this thread

Well said brother, well said. 

Peace be with you and all here.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2024, 08:22:59 AM
Will briefly analyzes the Mi-8 explosion here...

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 18, 2024, 08:32:05 AM
Quote from: Skoop on March 15, 2024, 08:10:09 PMLol, well the alt right in America thinks macron being tough on Putin is a front to cover up his wife being a man......lol, I swear you can't make this stuff up. 

Can we please refrain from reposting things that were seen on reddit, as if such things have any significance or meaning? For that matter there should be no reason why anyone needs to post anything referencing the "alt right" or the "far left" or however you want to refer to your ideological boogeymen, unless it has at least some relevance to the tactical or strategic situation.

Thanks. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 18, 2024, 09:02:09 AM
A new war goal for the Kremlin? 

Putin hinted at the need for creating a 'buffer zone' to safeguard Russian regions from potential attacks.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated, "They can only be secured by creating some kind of buffer zone so that any means that the enemy uses to strike us are out of range."

I interpret this to mean vast tracts of formerly Ukrainian land being cleared out as buffer zone.

I guess trying to blame the war on invisible Nazis in the Ukraine was getting old...

Or maybe somehow this ties in with Moldova... 

My sense of Russian history is not that strong...but it seems to me the idea of creating a buffer zone goes back at least a few hundred years.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-s-bold-move-russia-proposes-buffer-zone-to-protect-territory-from-ukraine-amid-raging-war/ar-BB1k5N0N?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=4683c78b945d46e99c5938293f00d427&ei=30 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-s-bold-move-russia-proposes-buffer-zone-to-protect-territory-from-ukraine-amid-raging-war/ar-BB1k5N0N?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=4683c78b945d46e99c5938293f00d427&ei=30)



Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 18, 2024, 12:57:46 PM
Russia used to be the undisputed masters of the slavic security zone, back during the Tsars (recapitulated in the famous Stalin Line before Stalin ordered its demolition right after Hiter invaded Poland). Those zones ran hundreds of miles deep and played a large part in crippling Russia's industrial (and somewhat their agricultural) development before the revolution after WW1.

Stalin's fortified sectors kiiiinnnnnd of served the same purpose, except they weren't really meant for defense despite being marketed that way; they were meant to serve as safe forming-up and launching points for invasion armies.

Putin might be thinking the same way: create "buffer zones" nominally intended to protect 'his' territory from Ukrainian attacks, despite Ukraine showing they can hit things almost at will as far away as St. Petersburg and the northern Urals (so what's supposed to be the minimum safe distance??) -- but really intended to serve as safe forming-up and launching points to complete his invasion eventually. We know for a fact he was worried about Ukraine itself being used that way by NATO (or that's how he was promoting Ukraine as a threat).

The best case scenario would be a demilitarized zone treated as an actual buffer zone. If he's willing to go Nork that way, the active war phase may be winding up for now.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 19, 2024, 02:52:42 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 18, 2024, 12:57:46 PMPutin might be thinking the same way: create "buffer zones" nominally intended to protect 'his' territory from Ukrainian attacks, despite Ukraine showing they can hit things almost at will as far away as St. Petersburg and the northern Urals (so what's supposed to be the minimum safe distance??) -- but really intended to serve as safe forming-up and launching points to complete his invasion eventually. We know for a fact he was worried about Ukraine itself being used that way by NATO (or that's how he was promoting Ukraine as a threat).

The best case scenario would be a demilitarized zone treated as an actual buffer zone. If he's willing to go Nork that way, the active war phase may be winding up for now.

  I don't know if this "buffer zone" really makes much sense except from a kind of reverse point of view.  Given that the Russians have never had a clear idea of what they are doing in the Ukraine (as evidenced by their original attack plan of sort of driving all over the place), I read the "buffer zone" plan as another instance of Russia's saying:
"We don't know what we are doing and it is all your fault."

The actual Russian plan seems to be to destroy everything.  However, that makes so little sense that the
Russians can't even admit that to themselves.  Plan B is apparently to say,"We don't know what we are doing and it is all your fault." as often as possible and in as many different ways as possible.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2024, 03:07:21 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 19, 2024, 02:52:42 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 18, 2024, 12:57:46 PMPutin might be thinking the same way: create "buffer zones" nominally intended to protect 'his' territory from Ukrainian attacks, despite Ukraine showing they can hit things almost at will as far away as St. Petersburg and the northern Urals (so what's supposed to be the minimum safe distance??) -- but really intended to serve as safe forming-up and launching points to complete his invasion eventually. We know for a fact he was worried about Ukraine itself being used that way by NATO (or that's how he was promoting Ukraine as a threat).

The best case scenario would be a demilitarized zone treated as an actual buffer zone. If he's willing to go Nork that way, the active war phase may be winding up for now.

  I don't know if this "buffer zone" really makes much sense except from a kind of reverse point of view.  Given that the Russians have never had a clear idea of what they are doing in the Ukraine (as evidenced by their original attack plan of sort of driving all over the place), I read the "buffer zone" plan as another instance of Russia's saying:
"We don't know what we are doing and it is all your fault."

The actual Russian plan seems to be to destroy everything.  However, that makes so little sense that the
Russians can't even admit that to themselves.  Plan B is apparently to say,"We don't know what we are doing and it is all your fault." as often as possible and in as many different ways as possible.

I'm not sure where your assumptions are coming from, but Russia definitely knows what they are doing and has a plan that does not simply include destroying everything. In reality, Russia now occupies nearly 20% of Ukraine...that's more than 25,000 square miles. All elements of the Russian government are involved in a program that seeks to integrate these newly occupied territories into the Russian Federation.  This is a pervasive system that includes the transformation of laws, introduction of new tax systems, everyday bureaucracy of life, including weddings, death certificates, car registrations, health insurance, pension payments, etc. All of these things are now being provided by the Russian state. This means a complete transformation of the local governance systems and bureaucracies. All schools are now back on Russian language education, and they're all really teaching according to the Russian curriculum, which is a particularly narrow curriculum, including a new Russian history textbook (you can imagine what is being taught within). You actually need a Russian passport to access these government services, so anyone unlucky enough to have been left behind or without means to leave has been forced to adapt to this new way of life.  More than 3,000,000 of these new Russian passports have been issued since the start of the war. If a Ukrainian wants to open a bank account, get access to welfare benefits, etc. he or she needs a Russian passport.

So in other words, whatever Russia may have destroyed behind the MLR, it is now rebuilding in a distinctly Russian way.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 19, 2024, 06:01:57 PM
That does raise the question of whether Russia would intend those regions to be the "buffer" zones, or how much so.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 19, 2024, 06:19:06 PM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2024, 03:07:21 PMSo in other words, whatever Russia may have destroyed behind the MLR, it is now rebuilding in a distinctly Russian way.

yes, following their totally crappy construction codes and job site corruption. 
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 19, 2024, 09:59:19 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on March 19, 2024, 06:01:57 PMThat does raise the question of whether Russia would intend those regions to be the "buffer" zones, or how much so.

I don't really believe the Russians will actually try to create these zones. I think its just another mirror show for internal consumption, and the few countries who still believe what Russia says. I guess the real purpose is to provide rhetorical cover to justify future campaigns or strategic negotiating points. What those are...I don't know.   

Maybe the answer is simple. It is probably no longer easy to whip up volunteers over the idea that Russia is in Ukraine to get rid of Nazis. But, if Russia is being attacked by the West, and needs a buffer zone to protect themselves, well that's "something worth fighting for"...;)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 20, 2024, 04:58:33 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2024, 03:07:21 PMI'm not sure where your assumptions are coming from, but Russia definitely knows what they are doing and has a plan that does not simply include destroying everything.

So in other words, whatever Russia may have destroyed behind the MLR, it is now rebuilding in a distinctly Russian way.

  So its a two step plan: destroy everything and then make it Russia.  That doesn't really seem to include anything resembling a buffer zone or the starting point for some negotiation with Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 21, 2024, 07:44:29 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 20, 2024, 04:58:33 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 19, 2024, 03:07:21 PMI'm not sure where your assumptions are coming from, but Russia definitely knows what they are doing and has a plan that does not simply include destroying everything.

So in other words, whatever Russia may have destroyed behind the MLR, it is now rebuilding in a distinctly Russian way.

  So its a two step plan: destroy everything and then make it Russia.  That doesn't really seem to include anything resembling a buffer zone or the starting point for some negotiation with Ukraine.

  I guess I'm glad to hear the Russians have some kind of overarching scheme.   Meanwhile, they think it would be "interesting" if the French sent in a few regiments.

    Medvedev has stated that the Russian army will prioritize the destruction of any French troops that may appear in Ukraine. "It would be interesting if the restless French sent a few regiments," he commented, echoing the sentiments often expressed by Kremlin propagandists.

  I'm not sure how this fits into their scheme.  It seems like "interesting" is what they are aiming at in this case.
Maybe it would be more "interesting' if they just packed up their stuff and went back to Russia.

  Note that they are happy (or at least "interested") at the prospect of destroying "a few regiments" since of course they plan on grinding their way to Iceland over the next few thousand years.  What's a few French regiments compared to thousands of years of grinding your way to Iceland?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 21, 2024, 07:58:26 AM
The French are not going to do anything unilaterally. Macron is just shooting his mouth off and grandstanding. He has done nothing but grab headlines, isolate France and alienate other western leaders. His broad statement taken alone is difficult to take seriously.

That being said, there is nothing inherently wrong with taking the position that all options are on the table.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 21, 2024, 08:27:10 AM
what about the Frech - Ukraine bilateral security agreement?

https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2024/02/16/agreement-on-security-cooperation-between-france-and-ukraine

and the eastern European countries that happen to agree with France's current stance on the matter?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 21, 2024, 09:45:09 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 21, 2024, 08:27:10 AMwhat about the Frech - Ukraine bilateral security agreement?

https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2024/02/16/agreement-on-security-cooperation-between-france-and-ukraine

and the eastern European countries that happen to agree with France's current stance on the matter?

I haven't reviewed its terms very closely, so I can't say how it may be distinguishable from any of the other bi-lateral security agreements Ukraine has entered with other Western states, such as with the UK or Germany. Still, I doubt there is anything in the agreement that would commit French troops to combat action in Ukraine, and that is what I mean when I say France is not going to "do anything unilaterally".
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 21, 2024, 10:58:47 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 21, 2024, 07:58:26 AMThat being said, there is nothing inherently wrong with taking the position that all options are on the table.

Given that all options are on the table, what's the realistic chance that the Russians can grind their way to Iceland in a few thousand years?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 21, 2024, 11:05:10 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 21, 2024, 10:58:47 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 21, 2024, 07:58:26 AMThat being said, there is nothing inherently wrong with taking the position that all options are on the table.

Given that all options are on the table, what's the realistic chance that the Russians can grind their way to Iceland in a few thousand years?

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Just because someone says all options are on the table does not mean that all options will be used. Clearly, the point of saying all options are on the table is to avoid escalation and deter the adversary by keeping them guessing.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 21, 2024, 11:14:46 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 21, 2024, 11:05:10 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on March 21, 2024, 10:58:47 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 21, 2024, 07:58:26 AMThat being said, there is nothing inherently wrong with taking the position that all options are on the table.

Given that all options are on the table, what's the realistic chance that the Russians can grind their way to Iceland in a few thousand years?

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Just because someone says all options are on the table does not mean that all options will be used. Clearly, the point of saying all options are on the table is to avoid escalation and deter the adversary by keeping them guessing.

My point is there is no sign the Russians are guessing about anything -- at least from their representation of themselves.  So, this suggests they really don't have any real interest in suggesting any kind of ceasefire or negotiation or buffer zone or ever stopping or anything that might require thinking about the real situation, which suggests they are preparing essentially to grind their way to Iceland if it takes a few thousand years.
Which in turn suggests -- given that Ukraine alone can't stop the Russians -- somebody is going to have to go
into Ukraine eventually -- maybe France, maybe Poland.

On the other hand, the Russians do seem to have a real "interest" in killing the French.  Which seems a little odd.

"We are going to kill all the French soldiers who are going to come to Ukrainian soil because today, during the conflict in Ukraine, there are 13,000 mercenaries, including 360 French," Tolstoy said. "One hundred and forty-seven have already been killed, so 147 citizens of France were killed in Ukraine."

If 360 Frenchmen were a problem one wonders about how "interesting" a few French regiments might really be.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 21, 2024, 12:24:43 PM
no surprise the russians have a thing about the French.  they are the most recent country to take Moscow after all.  :buck2:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 21, 2024, 12:31:09 PM
 :ROFL:  :ROFL:  :ROFL:  :ROFL:  :ROFL:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 21, 2024, 01:04:03 PM
2024 Overture has certain ring about it
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 21, 2024, 02:50:50 PM
Vive l'Empereur!

(https://i1.wp.com/secretnews.fr/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/macron-napoleon.jpg?fit=1200%2C629&ssl=1&is-pending-load=1)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: MengJiao on March 21, 2024, 06:45:46 PM
Quote from: Con on March 21, 2024, 01:04:03 PM2024 Overture has certain ring about it


The Russians are already exterminating the French on their way to Iceland (according to English- language news in Turkiye:


MOSCOW

France is preparing 2,000 troops to send them to Ukraine, the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said Wednesday.

"The contingent for sending to Ukraine is already being prepared. At the initial stage, it will amount to about 2,000 people," Sergey Naryshkin said in an interview with Russia's state news agency TASS.

Naryshkin said French President Emmanuel Macron is hiding the truth about the number of French soldiers already killed in Ukraine for fear of mass protests in his country.

"Sooner or later, Macron will have to reveal the ugly truth, but he will strive to delay the confessions as much as possible.

"As they say in the Elysee Palace, the number of French dead 'has already exceeded a psychologically significant threshold.' The release of such sensitive data can provoke citizens to protest, especially against the background of mass anti-government protests by farmers across the country," he said.

Naryshkin argued that French military leadership "fears discontent" among active mid-level officers.

"Among the dead, there are 'disproportionately many' of them, and already at the current stage there are problems with finding 'volunteers' for rotation and 'replacing those who have dropped out' in the Ukrainian theater of military operations," he said.

He claimed that the French military is "visibly concerned" about the increased number of French soldiers, and said they also fear such a significant unit will not be able to be sent to Ukraine quietly and be stationed there.

"Thus, it (the French contingent) will become a legitimate priority target for attacks from the Russian Armed Forces. This means that the fate of all Frenchmen who have ever come to the territory of the Russian world with a sword would await it," he added.

Last month, Macron refused to rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine, where Russia launched a "special military operation" two years ago. The idea, however, was rejected by the allies.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 21, 2024, 07:09:50 PM
the full video has 9 out of 12 getting knocked out during their attack.
this one went yolo into the water to get away.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1770846825995485654
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 21, 2024, 07:17:16 PM
 :ROFL:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1770918300471484598
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2024, 02:29:11 PM
Gunmen apparently attacked a Moscow concert venue on Friday night. I'll just leave it at that...

The AP news story said:

Several gunmen burst into a big concert hall on the edge of Moscow on Friday and sprayed visitors with automatic gunfire, killing and injuring an unspecified number of people and starting a massive blaze.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/gunmen-in-combat-fatigues-open-fire-at-moscow-concert-hall-russian-news-agencies-say/ar-BB1kmVYY (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/gunmen-in-combat-fatigues-open-fire-at-moscow-concert-hall-russian-news-agencies-say/ar-BB1kmVYY)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 22, 2024, 02:53:54 PM
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 22, 2024, 02:29:11 PMGunmen apparently attacked a Moscow concert venue on Friday night. I'll just leave it at that...

The AP news story said:

Several gunmen burst into a big concert hall on the edge of Moscow on Friday and sprayed visitors with automatic gunfire, killing and injuring an unspecified number of people and starting a massive blaze.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/gunmen-in-combat-fatigues-open-fire-at-moscow-concert-hall-russian-news-agencies-say/ar-BB1kmVYY (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/gunmen-in-combat-fatigues-open-fire-at-moscow-concert-hall-russian-news-agencies-say/ar-BB1kmVYY)


Zelensky states that Ukraine has nothing to do with the attack. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-68642036?src_origin=BBCS_BBC

QuoteUkraine 'has nothing to do' with attack - Zelensky aide
We're hearing now from an aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has distanced his country from the attack near Moscow.

In a Telegram post, Mykhailo Podolyak said "let's be clear, Ukraine absolutely has nothing to do with these events".

A reminder that Ukraine and Russia have been at war for the last two years, after Russian forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

In light of the Moscow apartment bombings of 1999, it remains to be seen who the attack gets attribituted to and the fallout from it.  That being said the attack was on a children's dance recital; whoever perpetrated it is monstrous.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 22, 2024, 03:01:24 PM
Rus = Vikings

Iceland = Viking region

Transitive property something something North Africa?

(Or unemployed? -- in GREEN-LAND!?!)

Edited to add: actually come to think of it, there was a somewhat reasonable plot about the Soviets taking Iceland in Red Storm Rising, to shut down the SOSUS detection chain.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2024, 05:09:46 PM
so ISIS is claiming responsibility for the attack
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 23, 2024, 04:24:36 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 22, 2024, 05:09:46 PMso ISIS is claiming responsibility for the attack

Seems corroborated, with ISIS-K as the culprit. Apparently the imminent attack US and others warned their citizens a while ago, to avoid concerts and other public gatherings. Putin was warned, too.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1771280755504677080
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 23, 2024, 05:34:24 AM
I understand Ian Bremmer's point, but if Russia had an independent media, I think the War in Ukraine would make him look far more incompetent than this attack.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 23, 2024, 11:51:16 AM
Author suggesting Putin does not have the resources to fight both ISIS and Ukraine, so he has to choose.

https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1771550249531621526


So many theories out there...

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1771573735658569755
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 23, 2024, 01:27:52 PM
Don't let a good tragedy go to waste.  From Putin's speech https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68646380

QuoteIn a televised address, Mr Putin condemned the massacre - the deadliest in Russia for nearly 20 years - as a "barbaric terrorist act" and repeated earlier suggestions by Russian security services that the attackers had tried to escape to Ukraine.

Obviously, the Russian leadership will use this to shore up support for the war against Ukraine, but I think they will use it to further mobilize the Russian population, especially with dryer weather coming.  I'm wondering if they believe that a surge in the near future will bring victory or that they genuinely fear the arrival of foreign troops?

I pity the Russian people, hopefully they'll give Putin the full Czar experience.

As to who perpetrated it, Ukraine would never risk losing the support of the West doing such a thing.  Russia will make use of propaganda stating the West supported this terrorism by propping up Ukraine though.  ISIS and its nihilistic world view would love to instigate further confrontation between the West and Russia and the axis of Resistance.  However, Ukraine Intelligence is stating that it is another self-directed attack by Putin. 
Quote"The public execution of people in Moscow should be understood as Putin's threat of an even greater escalation and expansion of the war. Peskov's statement about 'war,' made shortly before the terrorist attack, is just a false start of a carefully planned Kremlin special operation," the Agency [ Main Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine] said in a message on Telegram.
One should maybe take this with a big grain of salt until proof of it comes to light, but the timing is almost perfect with the Rasputitsa clearing up, and Putin's recent "re-election."  The apartment bombings of 1999 propelled an unknown Putin to popular leader.

I feel like getting blind, bloody drunk.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JasonPratt on March 23, 2024, 02:14:40 PM
Man I keep forgetting how gold that Darth Putin parody account it. Although for some reason I can't see more recent posts. (Maybe because I'm not an Xtwit.)

Still, BEHOLD PEONS! https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CW1C5H3T

QuoteHave you ever wondered how Darth Putin KGB became a master strategist? Do you want to set your life on the path to world domination? Are you terrified of the woke takeover of the world, of unisex toilets and the crushing of masculinity? Do you want to know what happens at the end of that long table as denial turns into goodwill gesture? Then this book is the lifestyle manual that will take you from being a simpering loser to the dominant alpha male in your home, office, and maybe the world.

Through the 13 rules of master strategy find out how to think, dress, date, and negotiate like a master strategist does, while reading never before seen documents that Darth has declassified showing how his amazing plans are always proceeding exactly as expected because the truth doesn't matter when you can just shift the goal posts.

I damn well ordered instantly. Ten dollah on Kindle, but also comes (as linked) on actual paper harvested by tree-counters presumably!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 23, 2024, 05:38:25 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJYftCdW8AAnEI5?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 24, 2024, 02:01:26 AM
Update from Darth Putin

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1771651499958870312
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Crossroads on March 24, 2024, 05:40:22 AM
Meanwhile, two new Ropucha class submersibles, it seems. Quite a hit for their logistics. Some speculation the large Ukrainian UAV cruise missile attack was launched the same time RuZZia launched theirs, to make countermeasures more difficult.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1771831477728166199
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2024, 03:53:21 PM
2 B-2s could finish off the rest in an afternoon.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2024, 04:31:25 PM
Im honestly fine with slightly higher gas prices if russia is getting fucked

https://twitter.com/i/status/1771944298595930469
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 24, 2024, 07:08:32 PM
More on military changes in France.

Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 24, 2024, 07:33:38 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2024, 04:31:25 PMIm honestly fine with slightly higher gas prices if russia is getting fucked

https://twitter.com/i/status/1771944298595930469

Was that a Bayraktar drone or something else?  Hitting a fractional distillation tower?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 24, 2024, 10:48:19 PM
yep, it was a Bayraktar which explains the one way range.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 25, 2024, 10:24:52 AM
Going after the distillation/fractionalization units... smart.
Those are the towers that do the actual separation of crude oil into its component parts. Near the top of the tower is where the lighter components get pulled out. Butane, propane, condensates.... they cut the video off I think because there would be a nice flare off of the flammable gases there, not good for Russian propaganda purposes.....

If there was a good burn, that tower is toast. Takes months to rebuild/replace them.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 25, 2024, 12:18:18 PM
The Bayraktar has had trouble with being jammed on the fronts.  Maybe a brilliant Russian stratagem would be to divert its EW assets away from frontlines, HQs and logistics hubs in order to protect its petroleum industry. 

As to Fearless LeaderTM, he's kind of quiet today:  https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/russian-spies-furious-with-putin-over-moscow-attack-the-tough-guy-didn-t-keep-us-safe/ar-BB1kv08D 
QuoteRussia expert Mark Galeotti of the Royal United Services Insititute has revealed that some sources within the Russian security services are furious with Putin for trying to blame the attack on Ukraine.He told Times Radio: "The main thing I am getting from contacts within the Russian security apparatus is obviously a deep sense of shame about the fact that this was allowed to happen.

"But, frankly, even amongst them, exasperation with Putin over him trying to claim that this is something that it isn't. In other words, an attack from Ukraine rather than an ISIS terror incident."

He added: "I think it is clear that whatever Putin may be saying for public consumption, the Russian state's working assumption is absolutely that this is ISIS-K."
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 25, 2024, 11:01:25 PM
Yeah.  The Ukrainians are doing their best to use asymmetrical warfare to target various Russian economic and (more or less) civilian targets.  While some of the attacks certainly do a lot of damage, they seem to be more of the pinprick variety than the stabbing variety.

My sense is that, so long as Putin controls the media and has the backing of his base, the Ukrainians can make life as miserable as they want for the Russians and it's unlikely to make a political difference.  That said, forcing Russia to divert defenses to protect regions deeper inside Moscow will certainly weaken those defenses that could be deployed on the front.

I'm not sure I understand the strategic value of further degrading Russia's Black Sea fleet.  It's already in a world of hurt and not even safe in its own harbors.  Are they simply trying to keep them locked up in port around the clock?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 25, 2024, 11:42:49 PM
Ukraine's economy is dependent on the export of grain through the Black Sea.  The EU farmers were protesting the grain going by land and ending up in their markets.  Who knows what Putin is willing to do now, with the risk of commerce raiding by the Russians it might be better to keep sinking them.  That is a pretty outlandish prognostication, but it has happened historically.

There is also the immense cost of losing a warship and the successful strikes can't be hidden under propaganda.  It's also a pretty direct statement by Ukraine ruining the purpose of Crimea as naval basing and that Ukraine won't let them keep it.

As to the civilian targets hit by Ukraine, they are economic and war effort.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: JudgeDredd on March 26, 2024, 03:43:48 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 25, 2024, 11:01:25 PMI'm not sure I understand the strategic value of further degrading Russia's Black Sea fleet.  It's already in a world of hurt and not even safe in its own harbors.  Are they simply trying to keep them locked up in port around the clock?
What else would they use the seaborne drones for? Also - yeah, it's still bad news (not that most Russians would perhaps hear about it) but maybe it does keep them bottled up and allows their ships to get out and into the world.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 26, 2024, 07:31:26 AM
The Russians need to move a lot of material around to keep the front supplied
Much like their economy the war is very brittle and when it collapses it will probably be across a wide front
The infrastructure hits have also included trains and bridges so logistics is getting harder and harder 
With the Russians not using the Kerch bridge for supplies their landing ships are a key resource that can be used anywhere there is a suitable beach not just at ports 
Now almost half those ships are gone
Will this be the straw that breaks it open?
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 26, 2024, 08:07:59 AM
It's unfortunate Ukraine's summer offensive didn't get into artillery range of the transport links from Rostov to Southern Ukraine.  A little easier for Russia to get supplies to its offensive at Avdiivka.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 26, 2024, 08:15:44 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on March 26, 2024, 03:43:48 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 25, 2024, 11:01:25 PMI'm not sure I understand the strategic value of further degrading Russia's Black Sea fleet.  It's already in a world of hurt and not even safe in its own harbors.  Are they simply trying to keep them locked up in port around the clock?
What else would they use the seaborne drones for? Also - yeah, it's still bad news (not that most Russians would perhaps hear about it) but maybe it does keep them bottled up and allows their ships to get out and into the world.

Keeping the Black Sea Fleet bottled up helps keep alive a vital transport corridor used by commercial ships to access Odessa.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 26, 2024, 08:58:33 AM
Article on the current state of play IRT logistics in the Black Sea

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/24/ukraine-just-blew-up-two-more-russian-landing-ships-its-too-late-to-matter/?sh=5fed74e1144a
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Jarhead0331 on March 26, 2024, 09:51:39 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 26, 2024, 08:58:33 AMArticle on the current state of play IRT logistics in the Black Sea

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/24/ukraine-just-blew-up-two-more-russian-landing-ships-its-too-late-to-matter/?sh=5fed74e1144a

The article makes a valid point, but I think it may also overlook the ongoing value of these relatively low cost strikes that inflict a comparatively heavy cost against Russia, while also providing significant benefits to the morale of the Ukrainian people and the PR effect that demonstrates Ukraine's continuing capability to launch offensive operations that yield at least the perception of consequential results.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Uberhaus on March 26, 2024, 10:04:10 AM
Zeihan talks about the revolution in warfare, then about the targeting of the Russian petroleum industry, and compares it to the industrial warfare that occurred in the US Civil War.


Does anyone have current numbers on how much damage has been currently done?  There is this, but it's four days old.  https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russia-crude-oil-refining-drops-to-10-month-low-after-ukraine-drone-attacks
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Tripoli on March 26, 2024, 10:12:16 AM
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 26, 2024, 09:51:39 AM
Quote from: Tripoli on March 26, 2024, 08:58:33 AMArticle on the current state of play IRT logistics in the Black Sea

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/24/ukraine-just-blew-up-two-more-russian-landing-ships-its-too-late-to-matter/?sh=5fed74e1144a

The article makes a valid point, but I think it may also overlook the ongoing value of these relatively low cost strikes that inflict a comparatively heavy cost against Russia, while also providing significant benefits to the morale of the Ukrainian people and the PR effect that demonstrates Ukraine's continuing capability to launch offensive operations that yield at least the perception of consequential results.

I was unaware that the Russians had completed the new rail line, and it does complicate the Ukrainian strategy of isolating the Crimea.  I would have to check to see what the logistical output of the new rail line is, and also whether there are any choke points along it that might make it vulnerable to interdiction.  You make a valid point about simply sinking the Russian LSDs provides both a morale boost and takes out logistics capabilities that have other uses, such as supplying areas that are off the rail and road networks, or supporting amphibious operations.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 26, 2024, 02:03:32 PM
interesting new russian anti drone protection:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJlsjk1WwAAgY-T?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: bobarossa on March 26, 2024, 04:03:59 PM
I can see drunk russians impaling themselves on those things while climbing onto the tank!
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 26, 2024, 05:34:45 PM
good, hopefully with added tetanus  :ThumbsUp:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 26, 2024, 05:42:11 PM
it never ends with these clowns.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1772692763437572466
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Con on March 26, 2024, 06:40:31 PM
That anti drone armor is going to give future model makers heart attacks
Makes modeling Zimmermat look like child's play
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Gusington on March 26, 2024, 07:32:28 PM
Wtf Belarus?  :hair:
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 26, 2024, 11:47:50 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1772768827140391059
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: GDS_Starfury on March 27, 2024, 10:48:50 PM
this is somewhat graphic and I'm not posting it for the simple joy of watching a vatnik disintergrate but the personal lethality of battlespace drones.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1772851022601576728 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1772851022601576728)
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: FarAway Sooner on March 27, 2024, 11:41:11 PM
I appreciate the clarification of posting Starfury.  The psychological impact of an enemy having that sort of weapon is crazy/creepy.
Title: Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
Post by: Windigo on March 28, 2024, 02:23:28 AM
Wait until they are autonomous.... that shit will keep you up at night.