Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Sir Slash]

The article also mentioned that the arty stored there was for U.S. use in the event of Mid-East war. I imagine there would be a very great need for that ammo given the potential history and present conflicts in that region. Maybe the Ukrainians will give it back if we ask them nicely.

[GDS_Starfury]

I'd rather they give it the russians. 

[MengJiao]

I wish the NATO leadership on both sides of the Atlantic were leading public opinion on the armament of Ukraine, rather than following it.

  Good point.  I think (though I have been mostly wrong about everything in this war), things have reached a kind of
turning point because:
a) The Russians are working on seriously mobilizing their conventional forces (this means they have actually given up on the nuke option)
b) The West is seriously addressing the need to deter Russia overall by arming Ukraine (meaning the overall Russian threat to the West overall has finally gotten through to places like Sweden)
c) Russian threats have ceased to be about NATO and now are seen (by places like Sweden) as being absolutely
unacceptable and completely destabilizing for everyone
d) the Russian Nuke threat appears to apply only to retaliation for major attacks on the Crimea, meaning they have calibrated that down and accepted that hanging on even to Crimea is getting problematic

So maybe things are changing ...sort of for the better if the West starts seriously arming Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

I can't wait to see what kind of hellish logistic problems Russia is heaping upon itself by going to a higher mobilization. 

[Gusington]

With 'higher mobilization' what number of troops are the Russians aiming for?

[Pete Dero]

With 'higher mobilization' what number of troops are the Russians aiming for?

Shortly before the start of the new year, Putin announced that he wanted to increase the number of military personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million.

[Sir Slash]

Do you get the feeling that everyone in Russia is just playing along with Putin thinking in a year or so he'll be in KGB Heaven and then they can put everything back the way it was before he rode horses topless? Probably a lot in the West planning for the same thing. What if his doctors are better than we think? 

[Gusington]

I thought I read about that 1.5m number but wasn't sure.

[JasonPratt]

I remember reading somewhere recently that he was adding 500K. So that sort of fits.

I noticed President Z was speculating whether Putin was dead already or in final incapacitation, although he admitted there was no direct evidence of this.

[Gusington]

^Really??

[GDS_Starfury]

now that vatniks are putting Pantsir on top of government buildings in moscow... 

[GDS_Starfury]

the more I read the more it looks like Poland just doesnt give a fuck about Germanys opinion on the tank matter anymore.

[Tripoli]

I remember reading somewhere recently that he was adding 500K. So that sort of fits.

I noticed President Z was speculating whether Putin was dead already or in final incapacitation, although he admitted there was no direct evidence of this.

Here's an article with the 1.5 million man end strength number for the Russian military: https://thehill.com/policy/international/3816314-russia-lays-out-plans-to-boost-size-of-military-to-1-5-million/

Here's a report with a 500,000 number  https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-putin-about-to-gamble-on-a-second-mobilisation-wave/

There are reports the call up may be 700,000, but this "could" combine the normal spring draft call up with an additional call up/mobilization: https://nypost.com/2023/01/18/russia-readying-quiet-mobilization-of-700000-troops-report/

[Gusington]

^Thanks Tripoli - any links on Putin's possible 'death'?

[Pete Dero]

^Thanks Tripoli - any links on Putin's possible 'death'?

Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky questioned at the World Economic Forum whether Putin is still alive. "I don't really understand who to speak to," he says of possible negotiations.

"I'm not sure that the president of Russia - who can sometimes be seen on television somewhere - is the man to be negotiated with. And that he is still alive," Zelensky said during a video conference.