Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

^'Sponsored by BAE Systems' hahaha

[GDS_Starfury]

[ArizonaTank]

hows this for a quick fire mission.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1616053336347742212

like something out of those old RTS games from the '90s.

[Skoop]

Is Polish hate greater for Russia or Germany?

I think the Polish presence in NATO would suggest that there's more distrust of Russia these days.  The hatred for Germany seems to be very factionalized. 

I've not followed Polish politics closely, but I've read that their relationship with Germany is particularly troubled at this point in time, with some of the country's right-leaning party leaders NOT being on the same page as the Polish President in terms of rhetoric or sentiment (he is, I think, trying to walk a little more in the middle there, but it's costing him politically--within his own base, as I recall).

I know about a dozen poles from DCS flying and Naval Actions groups, and the small window into their culture I've seen wouldn't suggest any hatred for Germans.  A few of them live in Germany for work and love it.  I would say the Poles have serious hate for Russia and don't be surprised if they join the war if Belorus joins Russia.  Any polish German negativity stems from the waffling and indecision for tough diplomatic decisions, it's like the Germans are scared of their own shadows these days.

[Windigo]

hows this for a quick fire mission.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1616053336347742212

like something out of those old RTS games from the '90s.

follow the money

[Jarhead0331]

Unbiased perspective.

[FarAway Sooner]

Thanks, Jarhead.  It was refreshing to hear somebody with some pretty strong opinions that didn't fall all on one side or the other.  I wish he'd injected a little opinion into a discussion about the strategic relevance of Bakhmut, but he seems like the kind of guy who'd be the first one to admit it's war and you just can't predict a lot of this stuff with any reliability.

[Sir Slash]

Agreed. Sounds like the experts who said the Russkies couldn't go on the offensive in Winter were wrong. The Ukrainians need a new version of Manstein's Backhand Blow.

[Jarhead0331]

Thanks, Jarhead.  It was refreshing to hear somebody with some pretty strong opinions that didn't fall all on one side or the other.  I wish he'd injected a little opinion into a discussion about the strategic relevance of Bakhmut, but he seems like the kind of guy who'd be the first one to admit it's war and you just can't predict a lot of this stuff with any reliability.

There are other videos where he focuses on Bakhmut. I'll dig them up.

[Jarhead0331]

Willy OAM on Bakhumt...

[FarAway Sooner]

Interesting.  Everybody is talking the most about the AFVs, but I was impressed with the detailed list he gave of who's sending what.  I didn't realize that there are so many self-propelled artillery pieces in that new raft of equipment:  18 HIMARS, about 30 155mm SP guns and another 30 152M SP guns, along with 20+ heavy artillery pieces.  I guess they are getting almost 150 IFVs (a mix of US, German, and Swedish makes) and another 40 or 50 French anti-tank Recon vehicles (how do you call something a recon vehicle when it carries a 105mm cannon?).

Nobody's talking about how many rounds of artillery (or how many spare barrels for those artillery pieces) are flowing into the theater, but that seems awfully relevant.  My understanding is that, with the growing importance of artillery in this theater, the biggest challenge is reconnaissance (whether that comes in the form of throw-away recce drones, better EW , anti-battery radar, etc.).

[Skoop]

Supplying the artillery rounds is a big issue for both sides.

I've heard that bahkmut is an attempt to take pressure off the kremina Savatove front as that is Ukraines real focus.  The Russian army is getting hammered and still hasn't fully recovered from the fall offensive in Kharkov.  Since bahkmut solidar was all wagner, it was an attempt to take pressure, but at the price of giving prigojzin the press.

Russia capturing Soledar or bahkmut strategically does nothing if the Russians can't exploit it.  The Ukrainians will just move to the next defensive line. 

Kremina how ever, is far more strategic and could break the front open again like the Kharkov offensive.

In theory, it's like two boxers fighting where one leads with his right, the other leads with his left, who gets knocked down first.

[FarAway Sooner]

If you want a dissenting opinion on the strategic relevance of Bakhmut, I'd encourage you to watch the video that Jarhead posted above in response to my earlier post. 

The dude might or might not be 100% correct, but he has some interesting insights about the tactical relevance of that location.

[JasonPratt]

Re overgunned "recon": this goes back at least as far as the Soviets who in WW2 had developed some wonderful recon vehicles with (at the time) overpowered main cannons. There's a funny photo of a Nazi recon officer standing on top of a captured one, using it as a perch to look over a nearby rise -- what's funny is that he has a really shiny butt! That's because he started the war riding a horse in a saddle, so you can imagine how happy he was to graduate to a speedy all-terrain enclosed vehicle with a heck-off cannon to snipe enemy armor. 

As recon units, I would expect this means they are underarmored compared with other vehicles but also not intended to shuttle squads of troops into battle (or even around generally). So not an APC/IFV, and not a tank, and not direct-fire (turretless) mobile gun.

[FarAway Sooner]

Re overgunned "recon": this goes back at least as far as the Soviets who in WW2 had developed some wonderful recon vehicles with (at the time) overpowered main cannons. There's a funny photo of a Nazi recon officer standing on top of a captured one, using it as a perch to look over a nearby rise -- what's funny is that he has a really shiny butt! That's because he started the war riding a horse in a saddle, so you can imagine how happy he was to graduate to a speedy all-terrain enclosed vehicle with a heck-off cannon to snipe enemy armor. 

As recon units, I would expect this means they are underarmored compared with other vehicles but also not intended to shuttle squads of troops into battle (or even around generally). So not an APC/IFV, and not a tank, and not direct-fire (turretless) mobile gun.

Yeah, it doesn't have passenger room.  The armor is about the thickness of an IFV, but they opted for a big-ass gun instead of a cabin.  I'm assuming it's intended as one part recon vehicle, one part tank destroyer, and one part direct-fire support for the infantry.  It's a bit like the battlecruiser of armored cars, I guess.

The 105mm medium-pressure cannon does NOT have the firepower of a tank killer like the high-velocity 120mm, but the HEAT round can take out MBTs at 1-2km, especially if shooting at side armor.  It feels more like an infantry support vehicle for mechanized infantry, but I suspect that anybody who knows more about the French army than I do would be able to say for sure.