Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Crossroads]

What we've seen reported recently are the static frontlines and the Russian assault tactics to slowly creep into Ukrainian positions.

Hence it was interesting to see this post detailing the new Tactical Assault Units, replacing the  Battalion tactical groups that seemed to be the previous basic unit of maneuvre. 



To be fair, it is for a different purpose, but that said can't but wonder if the heavy losses are playing a part here. Here's how an assault company comes together:




Your standard Russian BTG was a Tank Coy of 10 tanks + some 40 BMPs for infantry. Here we have three tanks, one per assault company, and the 40 something BMPs are down to 12, or four per assault company. Also, despite of the number of mobiks recruited, supposedly plenty of them, this does not seem to have that many feet on the ground either.

Original post and the full content via threadreader:

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1629722073487613953

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1629722073487613953.html

[Windigo]

Enter Player 3....  Belarus Partisans

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/belarus-partisans-say-they-blew-up-a-russian-military-aircraft-near-minsk/ar-AA17Zb1W?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=2eabcf96f6434da4b6894c41db10cf5b&ei=15

[FarAway Sooner]

Do we know for a fact that there are 3 companies for every Battalion under this new configuration? 

I think the best way to make an apples to apples comparison in how much things are changing is to look at the ratios.
They're still roughly 4-to-1 in BMPs to Tanks.  I wonder if the ratio of infantry-to-vehicles has changed? 

My sense is that initial impressions of the BTG were that it was too light on infantry, and that they weren't deployed aggressively enough to protect the vehicles in anything besides wide-open country.  It does make one wonder whether Russian casualties have been higher among infantry or vehicles? 

From the trench warfare nature of things, I'd assume it's infantry, but few things about the Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine have been predictable.

[JasonPratt]

It does make one wonder whether Russian casualties have been higher among infantry or vehicles? 

From the trench warfare nature of things, I'd assume it's infantry, but few things about the Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine have been predictable.

If the Uk DoD numbers for Russian casualties are anything like real, then of course in absolute numbers it's infantry, but proportionate to units deployed it's vehicles by a ridiculously wide margin.

That may be shifting, however, as the restructure of the Kampfgruppe (cough) suggests. Also, come to think of it -- and I realize this may be pure coincidence -- I've seen an increasing number of drone vs ork infantry videos in the past few weeks compared to drone vs ork vehicles.

The rationale reported for the restructure is very interesting: not due to lack of material or personnel, but due to problems in command and control!

So, open question: could this restructure of the BTGs improve C&C, at least theoretically (keeping in mind a probably endemic lack of officer skill and NCO training to help the officers)? If so, how?

[Crossroads]

Do we know for a fact that there are 3 companies for every Battalion under this new configuration? 

I think the best way to make an apples to apples comparison in how much things are changing is to look at the ratios.
They're still roughly 4-to-1 in BMPs to Tanks.  I wonder if the ratio of infantry-to-vehicles has changed? 

My sense is that initial impressions of the BTG were that it was too light on infantry, and that they weren't deployed aggressively enough to protect the vehicles in anything besides wide-open country.  It does make one wonder whether Russian casualties have been higher among infantry or vehicles? 

From the trench warfare nature of things, I'd assume it's infantry, but few things about the Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine have been predictable.

Apparently two to three companies per unit.

3/16 The Assault Detachment is customizable to mission requirements and consists of 2-3 assault companies, a command unit, an artillery support unit, and other groups: recon, tank, EW, AD, fire support, UAV, Medevac, flamethrowing, assault engineering, reserve, equipment recovery

One would assume they'd push motorised BTGs should one of these assault units be able to breach the Ukrainian lines, but that's seemingly not happening. Trench warfare ala the Great War, daily advantaces measured in meters, not kilometres.

[Sir Slash]

'Assault Engineering'. Are those the guys that dig the graves or the trenches?

[GDS_Starfury]

while there's currently no hard evidence at hand there are a lot of rumors of some interesting things going on just north of Bahkmut.  possibly another russian encirclement by Ukraine forces.

[JasonPratt]

'Assault Engineering'. Are those the guys that dig the graves or the trenches?

Depending on who they're used for, they could be the same thing. 

[Windigo]

while there's currently no hard evidence at hand there are a lot of rumors of some interesting things going on just north of Bahkmut.  possibly another russian encirclement by Ukraine forces.

Wouldn't surprise me.... if true I wonder how deep the maneuver will try to go? I am sure they'd want to capture a whole bunch of Russian artillery goodies.

Which brings me to the question of Russian POWs. I can't say I have read anything about where they go.

[ArizonaTank]

The Russian's just rejected their "Chinese friend's" plan for peace. Although the Russians said they "paid a lot of attention" to the plan.

There seems to be a whole bunch of diplomatic mind games being played over China's 'maybe / maybe not' involvement.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-shoots-down-china-s-peace-plan-for-the-ukraine-war-as-beijing-becomes-more-entangled-in-the-conflict-a-year-into-the-fighting/ar-AA180Csl?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8d37c1ee71c74d2780e6d4ed9bbd0fdf&ei=15

The Chinese are sending conflicting signals.

Do they want to be peacemakers? Is Zelensky saying he is willing to meet with Xi to stoke the Chinese 'better angels'?

or, do the Chinese want to tie down western military power and send ammunition and drones to Russia?

or, are the Chinese split internally (hardliners vs. globalists) and pursuing both paths?

and for the Machiavellians out there...are the Chinese the reason that NATO keeps saying "no" to sending aircraft to Ukraine?

Stay tuned...

[Gusington]

Imagine Chinese peacekeepers in Ukraine...holy Larry Bond.

[GDS_Starfury]

this is what may be going on right now.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-ground-forces-commander-visits-besieged-bakhmut-talk-strategy-boost-2023-02-27/

[Sir Slash]

I heard the Ukrainians are blowing the dams around Bakhmut to flood the approaches and slow the Russian advance.

[GDS_Starfury]

they blew a damn on the north side of town.

heres another take on whats going on: