Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Crossroads]

The coming war as seen by senior military and political leaders. Interesting (and long) read.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-oral-history-00083757

For instance, why the feared Russian cyber attack did not work out - lots of hard work and preventive preparation:

GEN. PAUL NAKASONE: We sent a [U.S. Cyber Command] team forward, and they land in Kyiv on the fourth of December. Within a day or two, the leader calls back, and she tells my Cyber National Mission Force commander, her boss, "We're not coming home for a while. In fact, send more people." We sent our largest "hunt forward" package into Kyiv. That stays there for a little over 70 days. What is a "hunt forward" operation? A hunt forward operation is focused at the partner's request to look at a series of networks — we identify malware, tradecraft and anomalous behavior in those networks that point us to adversaries and allow the partner — in this case, Ukraine — to strengthen those networks.

The interesting thing that she — the team leader — said: "They're really serious about this." This is the third time that we had been back in Ukraine, and there was just a different feeling in terms of how Ukraine was approaching it. When we provided information, they were moving on it, correcting the vulnerability, and looking for more.

[JasonPratt]

When I say the proportional losses have been much worse for Russian vehicles than infantry, and that I'm very curious to watch Russia fall completely apart by ramping up quasi-mobilization (much moreso any full mobilization), this is what I mean, from Business Insider (via MSN):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-just-one-tank-factory-churning-out-20-tanks-a-month-with-demand-outstripping-production-by-a-factor-of-ten-says-report/ar-AA182gFH?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=af5bc3ef3a714d29ad6d12966bd38f58&ei=62

On one hand, hey, it's UralWagonZavod! (Set up originally in the early 30s by American contractors with American factory machinery!) Kind of nice to see some legacy still going!

On the other hand, 30,000 people supporting production of 20 tanks a month, would get some people sent to 'lumberjack' camps to 'count trees'.  Even granting that modern Russian tanks are more sophisticated, at this point T-34s with some modern upgrades might work just as well! -- but I doubt they have the material capacity and logistic backfield to support even creating those, much less supporting them from the factory onward.

[JasonPratt]

Speaking of quasi-mobilization problems, here's Newsweek reporting from the ISW without any links back to the ISW (oddly  ):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-counteroffensive-shocked-putin-into-another-mobilization-isw/ar-AA180aFI?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=33ab70c06ae441af9f2100e986ae16cd&ei=35

The referenced ISW report seems to be this from Feb 26th (which is mostly about the semi-mobilization problems: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2023

[ArizonaTank]

Some unsettling reporting that the war is only helping Putin tighten his grip on Russia.

This from a NYT reporter in Russia.

Many Russians apparently buy the propaganda line the Putin's attack on Ukraine was actually "smart" because it pre-empted a NATO attack on Russia.

In the reporter's opinion, because of propaganda, it may take a long time for Russian society to turn against the war.

[JasonPratt]

Putler: "I shall pre-empt NATO killing our country by throwing our troops and vehicles against defenses supported by NATO! Soon I shall be wictory!!"   

[JasonPratt]

Video of airfield at Yesk going up in flames after a loose cigarette falling from the lips sinks some airships, so to speak: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11eno2q/explosions_at_the_russian_airfield_in_yeysk_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Much farther away, beyond the southern Crimea coast (kind of at the limit of the Kuban coast in IL2BoX), an oil field tastes a flung cigarette: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11eee97/two_drones_attack_a_rosneft_oil_depot_in_tuapse/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Those cigarettes were first deployed by the Tupolev bureau in 1979, by the way, so very stale in good Russian fashion!

Who knows whether one of Putin's mansions, about a dozen miles away, might also someday suffer a cigarette fire... (Though I doubt any cigs would be wasted on a non-strategic or tactical target. Still, I wouldn't go walking near any windows down there right now, if I was Putin!)

Still, that's the farthest the Uks have officially struck into acknowledged Russian territory so far...

[Sir Slash]

Do we know for sure if the Ukrainians sent the drones or did they just attack on their own? It could be drones don't like Russians.   

[FarAway Sooner]

It could be Skynet controlling the drones.  You know, that self-aware computer built by the folks who make Sensodyne.

I think Putin has clamped down very successfully in Russia.  He has imprisoned or chased out of the country almost all the would-be Liberals.  I heard one reporter, who I believe had lived in Russia for more than a decade, say that she felt like Russia hadn't felt this paranoid or suspicious since Stalin's purges in the 30s. 

The report stated that civil society in Russia is disintegrating, as children rush to inform on teachers while teachers do the same to report on students, family members report on each other, teammates report on coaches, etc.  While the Russians seem to have brought this fate on themselves, it's pretty clear that it won't end well no matter what happens next.

[JasonPratt]

It says something about the relative quality of geek culture that I have no idea what any of the 'modern' Terminator AIs are named. I know there's more than one, depending on which alternate timeline is being whatevered... 

[Sir Slash]

No problem Jason, the first 2 are the only ones worth watching. You are confined to the Movie Room until you've completed your assignment. But, you can tell everyone that, "I'll be BACH". 

[JasonPratt]

Oh I've seen most of them (except the Chronicles TV series which I've heard is very good); I just don't recall the new AI names.

(I actually like T3, and I thought the T-Salvation attempt at starting a new trilogy during the future war was a noble effort with some good set pieces and effects. Come to think of it, I haven't seen Genysys or whatever it's called with Matt Smith as a terminator!)

[Gusington]

Dark Fate was pretty good. And the Sarah Connor Chronicles was very good too. Watch them before the world actually does end.

[Pete Dero]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/dad-arrested-in-russia-after-daughter-drew-anti-war-picture-at-school

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/02/28/the-fsb-said-i-m-raising-my-daughter-wrong

A single father was arrested in Russia and charged with discrediting the military after his daughter drew an anti-war picture in an art class at school, according to reports.

Alexey Moskalev, from Russia's eastern Tula region, says the trouble began in April 2022 when a teacher at his daughter's school instructed her class to draw pictures in support of Russia's troops in Ukraine. Instead, his daughter Masha drew an image containing a Russian flag with the words "no to war" on it and a Ukrainian flag emblazoned with the words "Glory to Ukraine." It also showed bombs flying from the Russian side of the image toward a woman and a child on the Ukraine side.

The teacher informed the school's director who in turn called the police, Alexey says. According to his lawyer, Vladimir Bilienko, Alexey now faces up to three years in prison if his case goes to court "and the girl is sent to an orphanage," OVD-Info reports.

I asked, 'Where's my daughter?' They responded that she was being interviewed in the next office over. For three and a half hours, they told me that I'm raising my daughter incorrectly; they said they were going to take her from me and put me in jail," said Alexey.

An activist from a local civil organization has said the girl was already sent to a children's shelter.

  

[MengJiao]

It says something about the relative quality of geek culture that I have no idea what any of the 'modern' Terminator AIs are named. I know there's more than one, depending on which alternate timeline is being whatevered... 

I'm trying to be concerned about geek culture...have we lost touch with the Terminator?

Anyway from Newsweek:
Since Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian officials have remained firm that Crimea, which Putin annexed in 2014, must remain part of its nation in any future peace talks. In addition, the Kremlin maintains that four additional territories it illegitimately annexed this past September must also be recognized as Russian.

Okay so on the face of it a) the Russians have set impossible conditions for negotiations they said last month that they would not consider b) and what they say they want is everything they have taken and maybe a little more

So you would think this means they aren't really negotiating -- but I suspect this admission that they will settle for what they are holding right now more or less is in fact the beginning of some kind of realism on the Russian side.  Ideally, they would like to quit while they are slightly ahead of where they were in terms of territory, but
that's the same really as saying they want out of this mess as soon as possible.

Or so it seems to me.

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah.  Zelensky has stated that his preconditions for peace involve the restoration of Ukrainian borders to their pre-2014 state.  So neither side is openly budging yet.  I think the first side to offer a concession will come off as the first one to blink.

While I don't blame the Ukrainians for wanting all their occupied territory back, they seem no more interested in compromising than the Putinist regime does at this point.