Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Nevermind, the topic was spelled out later.

I was going to offer a DCS multiplayer troll video where someone lands an F-16 (iirc) on a road -- not very well at first -- to catch enemy players by surprise, but it's been a few years and I can't find it now...

[MengJiao]

As of two weeks ago, Zeihan was still "this is Russia's war to lose, they'll have more than half a million troops against Ukraine soon, etc.", and I still don't understand his reasoning. In the interview from then (I can post a link later today), the host immediately questioned whether the Orks had solved their logistical problem, and he instantly affirmed that all their crushing problems from logistics on down are still in place but that 'quantity is a quality' and they can still win with unsupported trash troops without destroying their own nation in the process (faster than they're already going down -- which he agrees will happen for many of the same reasons that have fatally handicapped their fight so far.)

I do not understand his persistence on this at all. It still seems to be 'well, Stalin did it, therefore...' without the slightest real comparison with Stalin's situation aside from the trivial surface similarity of sometimes-Stalin-had-to-use-trash-troops-and-also-failed-his-first-year-so-there. 

Stalin also had years and years of trained reservists (unlike the Germans, who not only did not have that but
also tried to keep a peasant-driven agricultural economy intact while killing off millions of potential laborers so that a-- they had to bring in "slave" labor from all over and b) shut down Treblinka c) make Auschwitz a kind of terminal labor camp). 

[JasonPratt]

Stalin had a TON of advantages that Putin could only dream of: for someone who wants to be the next Red Tsar, he has been going about it really the wrong way. ;)

But then, as Zeihan would argue (I think correctly), modern Russia has a demographic time-bomb ready to implode the whole system soon: if he doesn't go now (now being early last year), he doesn't go at all. Putin's very-short-term plan wasn't necessarily a bad one. It just had to work within a week. Except it didn't, and he doesn't have the strategic backfill to do more than peck at the problem continually and hope it finally goes away.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, a few more details on those cough-leaked-hack plans, Epoch Times reporting:

The Justice Department has launched an investigation into a possible leak of secret Pentagon documents that seem to detail U.S. and NATO aid to Ukraine, as well as front-line troop and armament positions, that were shared widely on social media.

The documents, dated between Feb. 23 and March 1 and shared on platforms like Twitter and Telegram, appear to show maps and details about deliveries of weapons.

Some of the documents had markings classifying them as "Secret" and "Top Secret," with some showing what looks like locations for front-line Russian and Ukrainian military units and artillery guns.

Bellingcat analyst Aric Toler posted on Twitter images suggesting that the documents may have been altered.

In at least one case, the documents appear to have been altered to show much lower Russian troop fatality numbers than the 200,000 killed and wounded that U.S. officials have publicly estimated.

That alteration, in particular, has led to speculation that Russia could be behind the leak.

"As many of these were pictures of documents, it appears that it was a deliberate leak done by someone that wished to damage the Ukraine, U.S., and NATO efforts," Mick Mulroy, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, told ABC.

"Russia's obvious manipulation of some facts has made it more difficult to determine what is real and what is not," said Mulroy. "Something that may help somewhat limit the damage overall ironically."

Mulroy addressed the matter of the investigation into the leak, saying he expects the probe to be "very thorough in finding out how this happened and who was responsible."

Ukraine has claimed that the documents are fake and part of a Russian disinformation campaign, while the Pentagon said the matter is being looked into.

Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said in a statement Friday that the Department of Defense had made a "formal referral" to the Department of Justice (DOJ) to probe the apparent leak.

The DOJ said in a statement Friday that "We have been in communication with the Department of Defense related to this matter and have begun an investigation."

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the chief of Ukraine's presidential office, said in a statement that the posts looked like a Russian disinformation operation to sow doubts about Ukraine's predicted counter-offensive.

"The aim of secret data 'leaks' is obvious: divert attention, cast doubts & mutual suspicions, sow discord," he said in a post on Twitter. "It's an ordinary game of [Russian] secret services. To take open briefings, add fake info or certain parts of interceptions & publish them on social networks legalizing the 'leak.'"

In an earlier post on Telegram, Podolyak said Russia was "looking for any way to intercept the information initiative, to try to influence the scenario plans of Ukraine's counteroffensive.

"This has nothing to do with Ukraine's real plans," he continued, adding that "as for the real counteroffensive plans, the Russian troops will certainly be the first to get acquainted with them."

"I would assume that will happen very soon," he added.

(The rest of the article is back-context for how things got here, and signs of a coming counter-offensive by the Uks.)

[Sir Slash]

The fact that anyone, regardless who's side they are on, could so easily get and publish our nation's most detailed and secret documents has to be one of the most epic failures and embarrassments in our country's history. Heads should roll at the Pentagon.

[SirAndrewD]

The fact that anyone, regardless who's side they are on, could so easily get and publish our nation's most detailed and secret documents has to be one of the most epic failures and embarrassments in our country's history. Heads should roll at the Pentagon.

Finally have a bit of an inside tidbit that most of you will get.  Leaker's name is William Martin.

[GDS_Starfury]

which one?
I'm still kinda skeptical about this whole thing.

[Crossroads]

I'm still kinda skeptical about this whole thing.

It's quite peculiar isn't it. History will tell, I guess. Reminds me of Germans losing their Fall Blau op plans in a plane crash, only for the French to diss it all: too obvious.

Certainly after the Kherson / Kharkiv stunt the Ukrainian armed forces were able to perform last fall, quite a dilemma for the Z-force to base decisions on this.

[Sir Slash]

Mike Rogers, former Head of the Intelligence Committee said on Fox this morning, he wouldn't be surprised to find out that the leaker has more info in his possession and may have been using Discord to pass it on to contacts for some time now. Also, the documents report Egypt was considering sending thousands of missiles to Russia to help their war effort. Shocking since the Egyptians get almost all their grain from Ukraine. 

[JasonPratt]

Huh, used to be a time when southern Europe got almost all their grain from Egypt!

Anyway, Egypt's theory may be that Russia is going to win anyway, and the sooner Russia wins the sooner the grain will flow again; whereas a drawn-out defeat is just going to starve everyone. Ukraine is an important breadbasket, and even more important supplier of fertilizer for the world, so nations are under a strong pressure to get this war solved a lot sooner than later.

[Windigo]

which one?
I'm still kinda skeptical about this whole thing.

Judging from the sheer number of paid social media trolls jumping all over this, I'd say it's a Russian misinformation campaign.

[GDS_Starfury]

Also, the documents report Egypt was considering sending thousands of missiles to Russia to help their war effort. Shocking since the Egyptians get almost all their grain from Ukraine. 

it was for 28000ish Grad rockets not missiles.  havent dug much into this story yet.

[GDS_Starfury]

some articlesabout the rockets:

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/egypt-denies-report-it-planned-produce-40000-rockets-russia

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/11/africa/egypt-russia-weapons-leak-intl/index.html

https://www.foxnews.com/world/egypt-planned-covertly-send-40000-rockets-russia-report

[GDS_Starfury]

the more these leaked documents get thrown around the more I think its disinformation with enough kernels of truth to be believable.

[Tripoli]

the more these leaked documents get thrown around the more I think its disinformation with enough kernels of truth to be believable.

I'm agnositic on whether this is disinformation.  It very well may be, but there are some indicia of reliability (and of course, good disinformation would have that).  Here is a contrary point of view: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-leak-biopsy