Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

the more these leaked documents get thrown around the more I think its disinformation with enough kernels of truth to be believable.

I'm agnositic on whether this is disinformation.  It very well may be, but there are some indicia of reliability (and of course, good disinformation would have that).  Here is a contrary point of view: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-leak-biopsy

This article put a different spin on things.  I have no idea of the accuracy, but it sounds plausible to me.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/11/pentagon-leak-traced-to-video-game-chat-group-users-arguing-over-war-in-ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

I have issue with this part:

One can only conclude that the tail is wagging the dog. The Ukrainians are able to extract material, training, and cash from the west, but there is little accountability or honest information flow in return.

there is quite a lot of accountability in what we give them and where it goes.  I was on the fence with his take but this tipped my overall opinion.  thats followed by trying to discredit the Oryx people, who have usually done a very good job at counting.  he gets called out for mistakes and his numbers have been on the low side of estimates.  the fact that the author uses armchair warlord as his source is laughable.  go scroll through his twitter profile.

and then this:

The American military increasingly seems to be a hollowed out simulacrum of its past glories, decaying behind a façade of shiny machines and bloated budgets - a trillion dollar technobureaucratic jobs program coasting on the residual patriotic fumes of red state American boys.

 

[GDS_Starfury]

a few thoughts after reading the substack and other articles about these documents.
if the leak is fake then you would want your documents to be as authentic as possible.
you would also want something of a slow burn on there release to give that authenticity credit.
like a dead guy on a Spanish beach with a briefcase handcuffed to him.
lots is being made of how low the Ukraine is on S-300s and how only russia builds them.
quite a few countries have them and I'd like to think the collective west has been buying them and
sending them to the warzone.  this also goes for the rest of the AD bleakness.
with artillery shells its much the same thing.  I see photos and articles all the time about mass
shipments of shells being delivered.  of course many are being used daily but I think a lot has
been horded for this offensive.  side note, lately Ive been seeing nothing but single warhead
GLMRS footage.  the cluster warheads would be way more useful on the attack and I'd like to think
those are being saved up as well.
then theres the issue of having these found on a minecraft server.  lots of classified stuff has
been posted to game servers before.  the ones that caught me attention were the tank specs posted
on the war thunder forum. the precedent is there and its just obscure enough that it might or might
not be real.
we'll have to wait for the books in 10 years to really know.

[Sir Slash]

I can certainly understand the Ukrainians not providing good intel to the U.S. on it's own equipment or resources based on the Pentagon's poor record of keeping Classified info secret. At this point, who would trust them? 

[Crossroads]

Careful out there in the social media today, another brutal video being posted, this time Waffen ZZ beheading a POW with a knife. Sick bastards, both the orcs and those who re-post the video.

[Sir Slash]

  Sounds like they and ISIS have a lot in common. Too bad we couldn't get them to work on each other.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, don't cry for Admiral Kuznyetsov! It isn't like we ever knew ye! 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-only-aircraft-carrier-looks-rip/ar-AA19K6r3?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=3c57c3091b0d4164a217278107e2cd92&ei=28

It isn't on fire (unfortunately) in that photo -- not in that photo, it has a reputation for goofy and fatal accidents! That's smoke from a smokestack.

I don't recall WW2 carriers putting out that much smoke unless they were intentionally trying to create a screen, but the Soviet-named carrier (for the guy in charge of all the Soviet Navy at Barbarossa's kickoff in 1941) in the brave new world of the 21st century future, has finally caught up with the technology of World War I carriers. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-admiral-kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-runs-on-dirty-fuel-mazut-2022-4

[Gusington]

If the Kuznyetsov is not on fire, is that a win for Russia?

[FarAway Sooner]

My sense is that the Russians are trying VERY hard to avoid relegation right now.  They'll even take a tie in the Kuznyetsov situation...

[GDS_Starfury]

back to Ukrainian supplies.

Pakistan to send military aid to Ukraine including 10,000 Grad rounds writes Economic Times. It will arrive in Ukraine through the German port of Emden with subsequent transit through Poland.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pakistan-to-supply-arms-to-ukraine-via-german-port-now/articleshow/97808726.cms?from=mdr

South Korea will give the US half a million 155-mm shells to replace those that the Americans supply to Ukraine from their own warehouses. The law prohibits South Korea from exporting weapons to countries at war, but such a three-way scheme does not fall under the law, and will allow the United States to supply shells to Ukraine much more freely.

https://www.donga.com/news/Politics/article/all/20230412/118792328/1?ref=main

things like this makes me question the leak some more.

[Gusington]

What are Pakistani/Indian relations like these days? Is Pakistan sending munitions to Ukraine to stick it to India and Russia?

[GDS_Starfury]

while not great I think both countries look at China as the bigger threat then each other.

[Tripoli]

Meanwhile, don't cry for Admiral Kuznyetsov! It isn't like we ever knew ye! 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-only-aircraft-carrier-looks-rip/ar-AA19K6r3?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=3c57c3091b0d4164a217278107e2cd92&ei=28

It isn't on fire (unfortunately) in that photo -- not in that photo, it has a reputation for goofy and fatal accidents! That's smoke from a smokestack.

I don't recall WW2 carriers putting out that much smoke unless they were intentionally trying to create a screen, but the Soviet-named carrier (for the guy in charge of all the Soviet Navy at Barbarossa's kickoff in 1941) in the brave new world of the 21st century future, has finally caught up with the technology of World War I carriers. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-admiral-kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-runs-on-dirty-fuel-mazut-2022-4

I could also be a problem with an improper fuel/air mixture.  Any number of things could cause that issue, including poor maintenance (especially of the burners and/or blowers), poor training of the watchstanders, etc.

[bobarossa]

South Korea will give the US half a million 155-mm shells to replace those that the Americans supply to Ukraine from their own warehouses. The law prohibits South Korea from exporting weapons to countries at war, but such a three-way scheme does not fall under the law, and will allow the United States to supply shells to Ukraine much more freely.

https://www.donga.com/news/Politics/article/all/20230412/118792328/1?ref=main

things like this makes me question the leak some more.

I can't find an english translation button on that site.  On a side note, it's funny that they use english/western numeral system instead of their own.

[GDS_Starfury]

translate widgets in your toolbar help.

It was belatedly known that the US administration of Joe Biden signed a contract with the Korean government and defense industry last month to receive 500,000 Korean-made 155mm shells in the form of a loan. 500,000 rounds is five times more than the 100,000 rounds of 155mm shells the government sold to the United States at the end of last year. In particular, it is half of the approximately 1 million units that the US provided to Ukraine last year. It is unusual to provide shells, which are consumable weapons, to other countries in the form of rental rather than sale.

According to multiple government sources on the 11th, the US administration purchased 100,000 rounds of 155mm shells from the South Korean government last year and requested an additional 100,000 rounds in February this year. In response, the government agreed with the U.S. government to provide 500,000 rounds to the U.S. but loan them out. A source said, "South Korea and the U.S. government officials have been struggling over how to support."

Another source said, "After finding a way to respond in good faith to the request of the United States, our blood ally, while adhering to the government principle of not providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, we decided to provide them in a rental manner instead of significantly increasing the supply of shells."

It is known that the US government is not sending 500,000 rounds to Ukraine right away, but is planning to supply the existing ammunition to Ukraine after filling it with US stockpiles. This is the same way the US used 100,000 rounds purchased from South Korea last year. The government believes that the risk of the US providing shells to Ukraine without the consent of the Korean government is low, as ownership of the shells belongs to the Korean government and must be returned later. Nevertheless, it is interpreted that the South Korean government has indirectly provided arms support to Ukraine.

The fact that the government and the defense industry signed a contract last month to provide 500,000 155mm shells to the Biden administration in the form of rental, not sale, is a situation where it is difficult to ignore repeated requests for assistance from the United States while maintaining the principle of not providing lethal weapons to Ukraine. It is solved as a compromise considering It is said that the decision was made to make the most of the cause and profit, considering that it had to produce results at President Yoon Seok-yeol's state visit to the United States and the Korea-US summit at the end of this month. Although there is controversy over authenticity, the New York Times reported that in a conversation between then-National Security Office Director Kim Seong-han and Presidential Secretary for Foreign Affairs Lee Moon-hee last month when the suspicion of wiretapping was raised, "If the United States responds to the request to provide artillery shells, the United States will not become the end user and may violate the principle of no lethal weapon support." It was reported that there was concern about the purpose of 'there is'.

500,000 rounds is almost half of the 1,000,000 rounds the U.S. provided to Ukraine last year. It is also pointed out that it is difficult to rule out the possibility that Russia will protest even if Korean shells are not directly supplied to Ukraine by lending them to the United States.

 Enter 2023-04-12 03:00Updated 2023-04-12 03:00
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Half of the amount of U.S. aid to Ukraine last year
'M777 155mm towed howitzer' provided by the US to Ukraine. It is a weapon that uses 155mm shells. South Korea has decided to lend 500,000 155mm shells to the United States. A screenshot of the US Department of Defense website'M777 155mm towed howitzer' provided by the US to Ukraine. It is a weapon that uses 155mm shells. South Korea has decided to lend 500,000 155mm shells to the United States. A screenshot of the US Department of Defense website
It was belatedly known that the US administration of Joe Biden signed a contract with the Korean government and defense industry last month to receive 500,000 Korean-made 155mm shells in the form of a loan. 500,000 rounds is five times more than the 100,000 rounds of 155mm shells the government sold to the United States at the end of last year. In particular, it is half of the approximately 1 million units that the US provided to Ukraine last year. It is unusual to provide shells, which are consumable weapons, to other countries in the form of rental rather than sale.

According to multiple government sources on the 11th, the US administration purchased 100,000 rounds of 155mm shells from the South Korean government last year and requested an additional 100,000 rounds in February this year. In response, the government agreed with the U.S. government to provide 500,000 rounds to the U.S. but loan them out. A source said, "South Korea and the U.S. government officials have been struggling over how to support."

Another source said, "After finding a way to respond in good faith to the request of the United States, our blood ally, while adhering to the government principle of not providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, we decided to provide them in a rental manner instead of significantly increasing the supply of shells."

It is known that the US government is not sending 500,000 rounds to Ukraine right away, but is planning to supply the existing ammunition to Ukraine after filling it with US stockpiles. This is the same way the US used 100,000 rounds purchased from South Korea last year. The government believes that the risk of the US providing shells to Ukraine without the consent of the Korean government is low, as ownership of the shells belongs to the Korean government and must be returned later. Nevertheless, it is interpreted that the South Korean government has indirectly provided arms support to Ukraine.


Korea maintains the principle of 'no direct provision of lethal weapons'... Compromise by leasing shells to the US




Renting rather than selling ammunition, an unusual way
to increase the amount by 5 times the amount purchased in the US last year, reducing diplomatic risks by taking into consideration
the cause and profit ahead of the US visit



The fact that the government and the defense industry signed a contract last month to provide 500,000 155mm shells to the Biden administration in the form of rental, not sale, is a situation where it is difficult to ignore repeated requests for assistance from the United States while maintaining the principle of not providing lethal weapons to Ukraine. It is solved as a compromise considering It is said that the decision was made to make the most of the cause and profit, considering that it had to produce results at President Yoon Seok-yeol's state visit to the United States and the Korea-US summit at the end of this month. Although there is controversy over authenticity, the New York Times reported that in a conversation between then-National Security Office Director Kim Seong-han and Presidential Secretary for Foreign Affairs Lee Moon-hee last month when the suspicion of wiretapping was raised, "If the United States responds to the request to provide artillery shells, the United States will not become the end user and may violate the principle of no lethal weapon support." It was reported that there was concern about the purpose of 'there is'.

500,000 rounds is almost half of the 1,000,000 rounds the U.S. provided to Ukraine last year. It is also pointed out that it is difficult to rule out the possibility that Russia will protest even if Korean shells are not directly supplied to Ukraine by lending them to the United States.

● Exceptional loan of shells to the United States ahead of Mr.
Last year, when the government exported 100,000 rounds of 155mm shells to the United States, it added a proviso that 'the end user is the United States'. Nevertheless, once sold, there were concerns that Korean shells might go into Ukraine and be used for killing purposes as the US operates the shells.

In the midst of this, as the war in Ukraine has been prolonged, the demand for weapons has steadily increased. A government source said, "Since the beginning of this year, ammunition stocks in Ukraine have become very short." Last month, the U.S. Department of Defense announced plans to provide additional weapons worth 350 million dollars (about 463 billion won), including 155mm shells, and appealed for arms support from its allies. Last month, the European Union also announced that it would send more than one million 155mm shells to Ukraine over the next 12 months.

The Biden administration is said to have mentioned the need for shell support to the Korean government around February. Another government source said, "The US side did not ask for arms support unconditionally," but "they encouraged our participation by saying that they were concerned about the war as it would take a long time and could become serious." He added, "Considering the ROK-US relationship at the time, it was not a situation where we could only stick to our position." It seems to be the context of the conversation between former chief Kim and former secretary Lee, in which suspicion of US wiretapping was raised.

In the end, the government, which could not ignore the demands of the Biden administration, agreed with the US government last month to provide 5 times the shells sold at the end of last year by rental method after careful consideration. In particular, the situation that President Yoon is scheduled to pay a state visit to the United States at the end of this month may have influenced the decision to provide shells.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened that "Korea-Russia relations will collapse if weapons are provided to Ukraine," raising concerns that Russia may rebel.

However, there is an analysis that the rental method is a reasonable method in terms of managing relations with Russia. By taking the form of lending rather than selling, in the worst case, even if Russia strongly opposes and takes retaliatory measures against Korean citizens and businessmen in Russia, it can be managed by requesting the US to return the shells. It is evaluated that the government applied an unprecedented rental form to the supply of shells, an expendable weapon, in order to find a way to minimize diplomatic risks between the United States and Russia.

A government source said, "Indirect aid to Ukraine through loans is the best way to send a message to the international community that South Korea, as a responsible member of the international community, is not just sitting by the war without provoking Russia."

Reporter Son Hyo-joo hjson@donga.com
Reporter Shin Jin-woo niceshin@donga.com
Reporter Nari Shin journari@donga.com