Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Windigo]

OK Mr. "Wall-O-Text"

is there a TL;DR of that somewhere?

I mean other than UAF good, Orcs bad.

[Windigo]

I find it interesting that the UAF seem to be targeting the Russian Counter Battery systems with more frequency now... prelude to Spring offensive maybe? Are we going to have a pool about when and where?

[GDS_Starfury]

OK Mr. "Wall-O-Text"

is there a TL;DR of that somewhere?

I mean other than UAF good, Orcs bad.

tldr the South Koreans are giving 500k arty shells to Ukraine.
and its not my fault you old people cant have one of your kids and grandkids install the browser widget that translates everything.   

[GDS_Starfury]

I find it interesting that the UAF seem to be targeting the Russian Counter Battery systems with more frequency now... prelude to Spring offensive maybe? Are we going to have a pool about when and where?

sometime in May is my guess.  this is due to a 50/50 split between the weather actually sucking across the whole front and final training the the units that are going to do it.

[FarAway Sooner]

TLDR the longer version:  South Korean law prohibits them from selling weapons directly to a country actively at war, but they want to support their ally (the US) and thwart China's ally, Russia.  So the Koreans are just renting 500,000 155mm shells to the US for a little while.  We'll return them at some point.

Unless we have to fire them first.

On a separate note:  It's so hard to differentiate information from misinformation in the social media sphere these days, I don't really know that anybody is trying very hard.  If they are, I have no idea how they're trying to do it.

Looking at a map of Ukraine, it's easy to see that the Ukes have the interior lines of supply and communication.  They ought to be able to adjust the focus of their attack somewhat depending on what progress happens where. 

Driving the Russians back from Bakhmut would be a big symbolic victory for the Ukes, but it occurs to me that the same terrain that made it so hard for the Russians to seize would be bound to hinder the Ukrainians in a counter-attack there. 

All other things being equal, the bigger strategic blow would be in the south.  If the Ukrainians can menace Russian supply lines in the direction of the coast (say anywhere between Mariupol and Melitupol), that threatens to cut off both Crimea and all the Russian units south of the Dniepr. 

I have no idea how possible that is, in terms of terrain or troop concentrations.  But the Ukrainians wouldn't even have to complete the cut-off.  They'd just have to be able to threaten it.

[GDS_Starfury]

the problem with getting Swedish tanks.

[GDS_Starfury]

All other things being equal, the bigger strategic blow would be in the south.

I think this is where most of the trenches and whatnot have been built up.

[GDS_Starfury]

happy moskva day!   

[SirAndrewD]

All other things being equal, the bigger strategic blow would be in the south.

Very clearly the case.  Even before the leaks there has been an absolute orgy of evidence that a drive towards Melitopol or Mariupol will be where the blow will land.   The leaks did nothing but continue to confirm suspicions.

I haven't seen this much of a clear intent of a axis for an offensive since Patton took over the invasion force at Calais.

[Sir Slash]

I think that's what the Russkies are expecting too. That's why the double lines of defenses set-up there, at least that's what the Orks claim anyway. Still, that is a l-o-n-g line to defend. Can they be strong everywhere along it?

[GDS_Starfury]

its very much a case of having to just punch through two or three places and then run rampant in the rear.
Ive read a lot about how the new Ukrainian formations wont have the punch to do so if the NATO kit is evenly
distributed.  Im just an armchair general but I wouldnt do that.  Id concentrate the punch and let the mechanized
infantry follow.  this isnt any groundbreaking idea by any means.  if anything its long established OMG doctrine.

[SirAndrewD]

Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man.

[GDS_Starfury]

fucking incel gamers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJpZCI6IjQzNzQ2NzEiLCJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNjgxMjcyMDAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNjgyNTY3OTk5LCJpYXQiOjE2ODEyNzIwMDAsImp0aSI6IjFlYmNjMjIyLThlMTgtNGRkYi1iZWFhLTNmNjM3NThhNGY3NiIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9uYXRpb25hbC1zZWN1cml0eS8yMDIzLzA0LzEyL2Rpc2NvcmQtbGVha2VkLWRvY3VtZW50cy8ifQ.Z1JC1YDd7pyUK9L3e1fGs3TvBjtPeo8VLudKFcoP_7E

[GDS_Starfury]

how about those fortifications and trenches.

[FarAway Sooner]

Fortifications seem very useful for protecting against artillery, so long as you can preserve a battle line.  But a cluster of fixed fortification seems really useless unless they're established at critical choke points.

I agree on the concentration of NATO weaponry.  If I had to guess on the distribution of those systems, I'd assume that vehicles like the AMX-10 and the Stryker might be more easily peanut-buttered across existing mechanized forces, while you'd want most of the Leopards and Bradleys concentrated in more compact formations. 

I'll admit, I've seen sometimes conflicting reports on exactly which versions of equipment are showing up when (partly because different versions of the same system are often showing up at different times--most media is notoriously bad at things like differentiating between a Leopard 1 and a Leopard 2). 

It's not at all clear to me how many Abrams will be showing up there anytime soon, but my sense is that it won't be many before the summer offensive starts.