Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Crossroads]

I think the Russian air is the main thing I'd worry about in the counter offensive.  I'd hate to see a brilliant Ukrainian break through get ground to a halt by unchecked bombing.  I'd feel alot better if we had gotten them those F16s 9 months ago, so they were operational now.

I wonder if the West modified MIG-29s (Poland etc) have shipped with some modern Air-to-air missiles, too

[Crossroads]

According to this article (pic: @SovietSergey), no quick fixes for their arms production. Systemic corruption etc.

So, Kremlin May 9th parade. Since I am ahead of you in time zones, here's a quick recap.

First, no tanks, not Potemkin's, or other variants. I kid you not. Oh, one (1) T-34 so there was that.

In particular, no Airforce fly-over, no modernised T-72/T-90 tanks let alone Armatas, no BUK SAM systems, ... 

Next year: two tachankas?

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1655859486370811904

[Crossroads]

Ramping up my post count today perhaps, but just gotta make a note that the sole T-34/85 was actually an Ukrainian one 

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1655853333909843969


Here's a more thorough comparison how the vehicle count on parade has plummeted since the 2021 parade.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1655831503882932224

[JasonPratt]

When people were quipping about the Ukraine conflict going back to WW1, I didn't think they meant going back to infantry backed by artillery, but here we are!

I'm legitimately a little surprised that they got some trucks for motorized infantry, as the Russian army already burned through their original stock of military truck transport last year. Next year: no mechanized infantry (those few BTRs scattered to lead other things were notable), maybe no motorized either!

The early joke in the thread about the drone attack not being enough to cancel the embarrassment of the parade, may well be on point!

[Sir Slash]

Yeah you gotta wonder if Putin's more worried about an, 'Anwar Sadat' type incident from anything with guns and cannons on it. I bet his Body-Double did the parade for him.

[JasonPratt]

I recall one of Stalin's super-bomber prototypes was kamikaze'd by a private plane during one of his pre-WW2 parade days, because the pilot thought Stalin himself would be on it.

[Windigo]

Watching that video clip with the ground troops and the IFV, I wondered how autonomous the IFV is during these engagements if comms with the infantry is limited.

[GDS_Starfury]

this post has more tanks then russias parade....

      

[FarAway Sooner]

And the Wagner chief is back to accusing the Russian Army of deserting his troops' flank and starving them of ammunition.  While this dissent is hardly a sign of a well-coordinated military machine, it is clearly a machine that is functioning smoothly to keep Putin in power.

Which seems to be the primary goal of this whole murderous escapade.

I wonder why the West got so upset at Putin doing this to Ukraine, after we were so sanguine about what he did in Transnistria and Chechnya and even Syria? 

Is it the size of the land grab?  The ethnicity of whom he's doing it to?  If the Ukrainians hadn't put up such a brave fight, would we all be back to guzzling Russian energy and investing in Russia to maximize our economies?  Because, you know, sacrifice isn't very convenient...

[SirAndrewD]

And the Wagner chief is back to accusing the Russian Army of deserting his troops' flank and starving them of ammunition.  While this dissent is hardly a sign of a well-coordinated military machine, it is clearly a machine that is functioning smoothly to keep Putin in power.

Which seems to be the primary goal of this whole murderous escapade.

I wonder why the West got so upset at Putin doing this to Ukraine, after we were so sanguine about what he did in Transnistria and Chechnya and even Syria? 

Is it the size of the land grab?  The ethnicity of whom he's doing it to?  If the Ukrainians hadn't put up such a brave fight, would we all be back to guzzling Russian energy and investing in Russia to maximize our economies?  Because, you know, sacrifice isn't very convenient...

And now Prigozhin has exactly what he wants, a seat on the military council and access to nearly unlimited supplies and supreme command of the Bakhmut effort. 

Prigozhin played a dangerous game but he had Shoigu and his staff in a bad position.  His threat to withdraw just before Victory Day was unacceptable and he essentially blackmailed his way into a stronger position politically. He's now a genuine player to succeed Putin. 

As for why the West is upset now and "not before"?  Well, there were voices quite upset before, but because of either self interest, fear or direct support for Putin western powers felt appeasement was the superior policy.  And yes, it was much easier to accept what the Russians were doing when they were taking slices of Georgia and Moldava rather than an entire nation that has enormous strategic value. 

There were voices in the US that warned about Putin after Georgia, they were largely silenced or made fun of by those in places of influence and told the "80's want their policy back".   But they said what we've seen to be true.  The Russians are, piece by piece restoring the Russian empire, and they have made it very clear what the extent of that restoration looks like. 

Anyone can read a map.  Ukraine unlocks the land bridge to Transnistria and then Moldava.  After that, where is he to go?  Some say he'll be appeased again, but others, that I agree with, point to the Baltic states, Finland, Poland.  Russia has claims there and it's getting close to time where the red line will be right up to the wall. 

Poland, the Czechs and Baltic States have been banging this drum for a while.  There's a reason Poland has the goal of being the largest and most advanced land army in Europe by 2030 and it's not because they trust NATO to defend it. 

And there's the practical.  Let's be real, there's no world where Georgia or Moldava can do what Ukraine has managed to do.  They have neither the population, infrastructure or geographic adjacency to fight Russia to a stand still.  Many didn't think Ukraine did either, but, check earlier in this thread, there were some that did feel it with the proper support. 

So, as red lines go I still think and agree that this is the only one that has a chance of actually stopping Russia before the wall is at the NATO borders.  The only other hope is that after a victory over Ukraine, Putin is satisfied and appeased as are the ultra nationalists that have his ear like Patrushev and Medvedev.

[MengJiao]

As for why the West is upset now and "not before"?   

   Probably lots of things made the attack on Ukraine look very different to the West:
1) Russia seemed to be over-extended...so maybe a relatively easy win
2) Russia had already taken a lot of Ukrainian territory
3) Ukraine held up well
4) NATO can't let the Black Sea area be an uncontested Russian Lake if they can help it
5) Russia seemed to be threatening NATO itself in a round-about way
6) Need to keep Belarus relatively neutral
7) All the weird, kind of crazy rhetoric coming out of Russia (suggesting panic or madness or something)
8) The need to show China things can get serious
9) But they can stay confined if everybody (except Russia) stays cool

and more I'm sure

[Gusington]

^Belarus is next. Unless you count them as part of Russia already.

[SirAndrewD]

^Belarus is next. Unless you count them as part of Russia already.

For all intents and purposes they are.  The Belarus model is what Russia wanted Ukraine to follow before the Euromaidan movement. 

If Belarus has its own Euromaidan moment, then yes, they'll be on the menu.

[Gusington]

^Just a matter of making it official...whatever that means to Putin nowadays. Moldova after that.

I still can't see Russia attacking a NATO member directly, though.

Then again the Baltics, Poland, Romania and now Finland seemed safe enough until Russia actually invaded. Less so now but an actual ground invasion of any NATO member just does not feel like a threat. Unless this whole war is a massive 'probing' of the West to test NATO resolve.

And if Putin thinks we don't have enough resolve...I suppose anything is on the table.

[FarAway Sooner]

The old Putin was given credit for being shrewd, calculating, and pragmatic.  The new Putin?  It's hard to predict what a crazy man is going to do next.

A recurring pattern we've seen over the last 100 years is that most tyrants underestimate the power of democracies, mistaking pluralism for disunity.  I'm not accusing Ukraine of being a full-fledged democracy--its track record there has been quite uneven.  But Ukraine's supporters are democracies.

I think that Ukraine's proximity to Western Europe is probably the single most decisive factor, along with Ukraine's ability to stand-up and fight successfully.

Had Russia attacked a NATO member-state, I think it would have been a whole different magnitude of whoop-ass that would have been opened on them.  I guess we'll never know. 

I do wonder if we'll see Poland wanting nuclear weapons in the next 20 years, or Germany wanting them in the next 40?  It may depend on whether Russia is beaten back from Ukraine.