Russia's War Against Ukraine

[SirAndrewD]

The Russian MOD has spoken. 

They announced that they had ordered a routine withdrawal of regular Russian troops on the flanks of Bakhmut to more advantageous positions to regroup and best support the final capture of the city.

Must be really bad then.

[GDS_Starfury]

so when the Ukrainians capture a russian tank they go through the bins to see whats there.
evidently this tank crew really really likes elbow pasta!

[Sir Slash]

Russia-a-roni? 

[GDS_Starfury]

so the Swiss amended their laws to allow for weapons transfers to Ukraine.
the Ukraine used Stormshadow missiles to hit deep targets in russia.
and russia shoots down 4 of its own aircraft in response.

Happy Saturday!

[SirAndrewD]

the Ukraine used Stormshadow missiles to hit deep targets in russia.
and russia shoots down 4 of its own aircraft in response.

Happy Saturday!

Weird choice of target to use these missiles on Luhansk.

Russian and Indian media are already running pictures of civilian buildings hit and claiming multiple wounded children.  They of course claim the target of the Storm Shadows was civilian infrastructure, a polymers factory and meat plant both bordering civilian housing. 

I would think that the Kaliber launch sites in Crimea would've been the logical place to deploy these missiles.     

EDIT: Well, seems true.  A few Ukrainian milbloggers report the plants had been converted to military barracks and housed Russian troops.  Their distance behind the lines and adjacency to residential areas was meant to protect them.

[Crossroads]

and russia shoots down 4 of its own aircraft in response.

Rumours of a third helo shut down as well. Clearly August 9 have come to say 'Hi!'

[GDS_Starfury]

Weird choice of target to use these missiles on Luhansk.

the threads Ive seen allude to either a depot facility or barracks.

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1657057233497096201

[GDS_Starfury]

Def Mon is pretty reliable.  also love the idea of decoys used to fuck with air defense.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1657049636333289475

[SirAndrewD]

There are times I am amused reading the Russian leaning magazines. 

Hindustan Times headlines today:

"Zelensky attacks his own people in Luhansk: Multiple children injured in strike"

"Russian Assault troops set trap, crush Ukrainian counterattack north of Bakhmut"

[GDS_Starfury]

 

[FarAway Sooner]

Assuming the Ukrainians are able to hold that reoccupied ground, it looks like the Russian bulge to the SW of Bakhmut is either intended to catch Russian troops in a pocket, or to drive them further from the road in the South.  Are the Ukrainians re-securing the major southern logistical route back into Bakhmut?

[SirAndrewD]

Assuming the Ukrainians are able to hold that reoccupied ground, it looks like the Russian bulge to the SW of Bakhmut is either intended to catch Russian troops in a pocket, or to drive them further from the road in the South.  Are the Ukrainians re-securing the major southern logistical route back into Bakhmut?

They look to be doing both. 

Clearing the Ivaniske Road makes sure they still have a clean line of supply and path of retreat from Bakhmut.  The push to the north is taking pressure off the Khromove Road. 

They're obviously also putting on pressure to try to create double envelopments and potentially position themselves to try to surround Bakhmut and trap Wagner. 

Whether or not they're going to commit the level of resources necessary to create a true double envelopment really depends on if this is where they intend to launch the counteroffensive, or if this is a side show to draw attention from somewhere else.

[MengJiao]

so the Swiss amended their laws to allow for weapons transfers to Ukraine.
the Ukraine used Stormshadow missiles to hit deep targets in russia.
and russia shoots down 4 of its own aircraft in response.

Happy Saturday!

Sounds good.  If the Ukrainians have better targeting and better precision weapons than the Russians, maybe their offensive could get off to a good start just by destroying a lot of Russian forces without committing many of their own.

[SirAndrewD]

As of today it looks like the UAF has largely halted their attacks on the Bakhmut flanks. 

More and more likely that these were the before mentioned shaping operations, not the main show and the primary objective, that was achieved was the opening of the Ivanske and Khromove roads.

Another thing that stands out, watching raw footage shows that the UAF units involved were not using the modern, NATO mechanized equipment.  A few western milbloggers misidentified the battle taxies the UAF were using as Bradley IFV's, but on closer inspection they're clearly using turreted M113's. 

Is this the counteroffensive?  It increasingly looks like it's not and that the UAF conducted shaping attacks that ended up being wildly more successful than expected.

[FarAway Sooner]

I'm guessing it'll be another few days before we have agreement on exactly how far the Ukrainians advanced (e.g., whether the map above is still accurate).

Serious question:  As the Ukrainian command, how hard do you try to win battles that will decimate Russian morale, versus battles that will inflict maximum casualties, versus battles that will maximize liberated territory?

It's a balancing act, obviously.  If the Russian morale totally collapses, the other two objectives become MUCH easier.  But, if the Russian morale didn't totally collapse in 1941, and if the "big collapse" last September only yielded 8,000 square miles and the Russians still hold another 40,000 square miles of Ukraine, what is the Ukrainian game plan to try to achieve their stated goals?

My sense is that you strike for a balance of all 3.  I just have no idea how Ukraine gets to the point where it can accomplish its stated goals of liberating all Ukraine.  Maybe the Ukrainian end state for now is to get something akin to the 38th Parallel in Korea, negotiate a ceasefire such that the Western embargo of Russia continues in perpetuity, and then seek membership in NATO?