Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

To be sure, Russian liberalism had a renaissance of sorts from 1995-2010 or so.  But I'm not sure that Russia tackled the internal cultural problems (some of which have been discussed here) that ultimately led us to where we are today. 

The US and Western Europe seemed to be operating under the premise that economic growth and the creation of an economic middle class would transform Russia into a liberal democratic state.  While that served their own short-sighted interests very well, it obviously didn't solve the internal problems in Russia, and Russian authoritarianism seems to be back to where it was post-1945.

I think there was a missed opportunity there, as you suggest, but threading that needle would have taken more than just a warmer response to Putin's overtures in his first 5-10 years in power.

[JasonPratt]

I don't think Putin and his regime (overall) ever had any intention of tackling the internal cultural problems that ultimately etc. In some cases they just didn't care; in other cases they regarded the problems as a feature, not a bug!

The remaining problems they either cared about but couldn't do much with (such as getting the Siberian oil back online, which took almost up to the start of this war), or thought would be useful in getting aid from the West, either by addressing them (to show evidence they were doing something the Western nations culturally cared about) or not addressing them (and asking the West for help in addressing them, which could be spun in various ways to their socio-political and maybe personal advantages).

[Crossroads]

Meanwhile, in Ukrain Russia: a border raid by Russian Volunteer Corps to Belgorod. Apparently no or little border guards from Russia there, as taking the war to Russia proper seems to be out of bounds.

From the parody account:

https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1660624075008385030

Not sure if parody too, would be a golden press statement if true (referring to Donbass in 2014 with strong refusal of any Russian presence there):

https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1660599662007537665


Not sure what's actually happening, let us wait and see. A major embarrasment for Russia in the info-space, and if they would need to move actual troops there, an opportunity for UAF somewhere else?

One more serious tweet to describe the situation:

Today's Free russia incursion into Belgorod is creating a magnificent dilemma for the russians:

putin can either move 50,000+ troops from southern Ukraine to belgorod, bryansk, and kursk oblasts to secure the 700+ km border with Ukraine, which would mean that russia has even
1/2
less troops to withstand the coming Ukrainian offensive, or putin can leave the 50,000 troops in southern Ukraine and lose village after village, town after town to the Free russia legion.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

2/2

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1660634386042159108

[Crossroads]

@Warmonitor3 with a map from the area:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1660609384185995264


edit: Prokhorovka is some 20 miles further northeast that road. A greatest tank battle brewing?

[Gusington]

Ukrainian attack helicopters attacking Belgorod or Russian?

[Crossroads]

Ukrainian attack helicopters attacking Belgorod or Russian?

Russian volunteers under Ukrainian army are, so a land operation 

[FarAway Sooner]

If the Ukrainians start hiring Syrian mercenaries to launch attacks into Russian territory, could we convince Putin to go after the Assad regime?

[Sir Slash]

More of Putin's enemy Drug-Addict Nazis' attacking him? Damn, that movement's really starting to spread. 

[ArizonaTank]

Meanwhile, in Ukrain Russia: a border raid by Russian Volunteer Corps to Belgorod. Apparently no or little border guards from Russia there, as taking the war to Russia proper seems to be out of bounds.

From the parody account:


Not sure what's actually happening, let us wait and see. A major embarrasment for Russia in the info-space, and if they would need to move actual troops there, an opportunity for UAF somewhere else?

One more serious tweet to describe the situation:

It does seem like a good distraction to draw-off Russian attention from elsewhere.

Time will tell...

[SirAndrewD]

It does seem like a good distraction to draw-off Russian attention from elsewhere.

Time will tell...

Seems to be the intent, but the problem here is more political than tactical. 

How are NATO countries that have waffled a bit going to respond to this?  Something immediately gets lost on Ukraine's status as the victim when they begin operating on undisputed Russian territory. 

It was like the damage Lee's army took when he crossed into Maryland in 1862.  He understood the significance of winning a victory on northern soil but his army hemorrhaged morale and men just from the idea that they were no longer fighting a purely defensive war.

I'm not saying this is necessarily the wrong play, but it's surely a dangerous one when your national survival heavily depends on the support of western partners that are already hesitant to provoke Russia further.

[GDS_Starfury]

russians fighting for Ukraine invade russia.....  spicy   

[GDS_Starfury]

so its revolution time?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1660714574432321536

[Gusington]

^I like it, but if Russia dissolves into 1000 pieces no one can predict how that will end 

[JasonPratt]

Zeihan has some good points this time -- and some really dark ones. (If I heard about Russians kidnapping and shuffle exporting Ukrainian 3-year-olds to patch their own demographic catastrophe, especially in Siberia, I'd somehow forgotten about it...?!)

[GDS_Starfury]