Russia's War Against Ukraine

[SirAndrewD]

Yeesh. 

The UAF 33rd and 47th Brigades have lost up to 5% of their NATO provided mechanized equipment in half a day, mostly due to the UAF not deploying them properly against mines and fortifications. 

Good news is that there is evidence that despite that setback, a lot of the equipment is salvageable and there's word that there's been at least one breakthrough.  In one circumstance Russians retreated into their own minefields and suffered losses.

The Russian defense lines are actually surprisingly not that deep and if the UAF can force their Armor past the initial two lines of defense, they've got open ground running to the sea.

[GDS_Starfury]

russian air defense at work

https://twitter.com/i/status/1667956356517601284

[SirAndrewD]

Russia's bullish propaganda on their victories in the counteroffensive might end up being their downfall. 

The losses inflicted on the 33rd and 47th Brigades south of Orikhiv caused the Russians to heavily commit reserves, air and artillery to that sector, including shifting units from the now impassible areas of the Dnieper to further blunt the attack and launch limited counterattacks. 

The Russians are also heavily exposing their artillery in the Orikhiv sector, expending ammo at a very high rate and putting themselves in the open for counterbattery fire. 

However, even the UAF OPSEC silence hasn't been able to hide that there have been major gains, deep into the fortifications farther to the east south of Neskuchne, along with a potential double envelopment move aimed at Pryutne. 

The UAF have seized the heights  in the east and they're doing very well while Russian reserves are now fully committed at Orikhiv.

Still, some interesting observations from ISW that are of note.  One, the Russians did not do what was expected and fill the entire first line of defenses with mobilized reservists.   Instead they created mixed brigade structures where reservists are bolstered by Guards units that were freed up from the Kherson region.   The UAF's delays in the counteroffensive likely allowed the Russians to make these moves and very heavily strengthen their hand. 

One wonders if the UAF's decision to delay for perfect conditions and full deployment of NATO gear was the best one.  The Russians did not have these forces in place or ready in March, and the more than 60 days that passed since probably benefited the Russians far more than Ukrainians.

Their fortifications and mixed capability unit structure has managed to achieve something the Russians have so far failed to do when the UAF is on the attack, they've managed to keep their men from routing at first contact.

What does that mean from here?  To me, mostly that the first phase of the counteroffensive will be bloody, but that if they can achieve breakthroughs and flank the entrenchments that we could actually see some real encirclements.

For both sides this is absolutely the proverbial "moment of crisis" in the battle. 

[GDS_Starfury]

I love you 

[SirAndrewD]

I know.

[GDS_Starfury]

[GDS_Starfury]

im lettting this roll out another few days before linking maps and shit.
but overall things are not going well for russia it seems.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1668164403559006208

[JasonPratt]

Hm... is it better for the Russian Guards to be committed up front on defense to help hold against routs now, where they can be caught and potentially scorped in a blaze of glory; compared to the Ukrainians going earlier with less equipment and training to rout the softer defenders from their softer defenses but being caught by the Guards on their own pincer movements?

This is aside from whether weather really would have allowed a proper Uk counter-offensive earlier, and whether (probably?) the Russians would have blown the dam anyway at that time upon signs of the kickoff coming.

[JasonPratt]

Fortunately, not every Leopard 2 destroyed is really a Leopard 2:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/147345h/found_footage_of_russians_hitting_the_leopard_2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3#

[JasonPratt]

Since this bridge has been confirmed destroyed, but not by how, hopefully this is not an OpSec problem:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667893691271266304?s=20

Also, could be one of several bridges in a long rail line between northern Crimea and Melitpol, so again hopefully doesn't reveal troop or asset locations.

Severing this rail line at a bridge is a BIG deal!

[JasonPratt]

Wagner refuses to sign a contract being integrated into the Russian army per se, while maintaining command loyalty directly to Putin (basically) -- who was the one who said they have to sign up as integrated into the Russian army per se!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/146sh83/the_pmc_wagner_will_not_sign_any_contracts_with/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

[SirAndrewD]

Hm... is it better for the Russian Guards to be committed up front on defense to help hold against routs now, where they can be caught and potentially scorped in a blaze of glory; compared to the Ukrainians going earlier with less equipment and training to rout the softer defenders from their softer defenses but being caught by the Guards on their own pincer movements?

Interestingly, the integration of the Guards units has so far seemed to be less of a tactic of forcing troops to stand and die, and more a tactic of being able to conduct a more active defense and executing organized fighting retreats when necessary. 

Over the course of the day yesterday, the Russians have lost significant ground around Makarivka and surrendered Novodarivka, inflicting casualties but falling back to prepared lines of defense rather than routing. 

The double envelopment move towards Pryiutne is still moving forward, but the Russians have prevented an encirclement at Rivnopil by conducting phased fighting retreats. 

Had the area been purely held by reservists they would've done what the Russians did last year and break and run with few significant casualties inflicted on the attackers. 

The more professional units on the front have also allowed the Russians to start using UAF's own tactics against them.   There has been significantly better command and control on the front, and the Russians have made heavy use of drones in spotting and directing Air and Artillery very effectively. 

The Russians ground troops have also been coordinating with Helicopter assets much better than we've seen at any other time in the war, allowing their Helos to engage at standoff range much more safely. 

These tactics have worked.  Half of the Mine clearing Leopards provided to Ukraine have been knocked out and at this point 21% of all Bradley's supplied to the UAF have been destroyed/disabled in the first 48 hours of the offensive. 

The Russian army clearly still has significant institutional problems, hence the fact that they're on the defensive right now when a major Spring/Summer Offensive should've been something in the works for the Russians for months.  However, it seems the Russians have finally started to learn and are making the UAF pay dearly in the breaching phase of the offensive. 

Of course the other side of this is that, despite the heavy losses of western equipment we've still not seen the UAF deploy the bulk of its heavy brigades.  They likely won't until there's a very practical breach in the final Russian lines of fortifications.

[GDS_Starfury]

These tactics have worked.  Half of the Mine clearing Leopards provided to Ukraine have been knocked out and at this point 21% of all Bradley's supplied to the UAF have been destroyed/disabled in the first 48 hours of the offensive.

actually this isnt quite the case.  that photo of the 3 leo r's knocked out has been proven to be heavily edited.

[SirAndrewD]

These tactics have worked.  Half of the Mine clearing Leopards provided to Ukraine have been knocked out and at this point 21% of all Bradley's supplied to the UAF have been destroyed/disabled in the first 48 hours of the offensive.

actually this isnt quite the case.  that photo of the 3 leo r's knocked out has been proven to be heavily edited.

Yeah, I take some of this with a grain of salt.  The Russians have shown the same image of one convoy ambush from about three different angles. 

Business Insider was quoting a Pentagon official on the numbers so I defaulted to that intel assuming they knew something we didn't.