Russia's War Against Ukraine

[al_infierno]

Who's in the mood for a fresh rewatch of Threads (1984)?      

[SirAndrewD]

Who's in the mood for a fresh rewatch of Threads (1984)?      

Ugh. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

If Wagner is truly trying to march to Moscow, the Russian MOD doesn't have a whole lot available to throw in his way. 

However, any major column moving up a single highway in unfriendly territory is going to be extremely vulnerable to air strikes.  I can't imagine Wagner will be able to make the entire 12-16 hour trip unmolested. 

Prigozhin's making all kinds of statements right now rapid fire, saying they're on the move and they've already shot down helicopters, but there's still no real confirmation beyond a couple of videos.

I'm not entirely sure how sane Prigozhin actually is so I'm taking a lot of this with a grain of salt tonight.  There's a chance this could be really happening, and an equal chance that this could be the ravings of an unhinged lunatic.

[GDS_Starfury]

well, here's hoping we make it to Monday!   

[Gusington]

Fuck

[Windigo]

well, here's hoping we make it to Monday! 

*serious fucking eyeroll*

[SirAndrewD]

Lots of videos now coming out after dawn.  It looks increasingly like Wagner has taken Rostov without a fight.

Significant numbers of Mercs seen on the street.  For Wagner to have been able to pull this off this swiftly in this area they likely had to be planning this for days if not longer. 

Support for that seems to be that Wagner mercs were calling home all week telling family to watch the news closely.

[al_infierno]

There was a statement from Prigozhin specifically calling out Shoigou and another official whose name I don't have offhand.  This is pure layman speculation, but I'm guessing they didn't mention Putin in a bid to win over fence-sitters who don't want to cross Putin directly but recognize the obvious problem in the military, and are willing to go for "hang Shoigou and his lackeys" and once that's done, the goal posts move toward "hang Putin" which will then suddenly seem much more reasonable and achievable without fear of reprisal.

All joking aside from previous posts I am completely terrified at the idea of the head of Wagner having access to the Russian nuclear arsenal.

[SirAndrewD]

There was a statement from Prigozhin specifically calling out Shoigou and another official whose name I don't have offhand.  This is pure layman speculation, but I'm guessing they didn't mention Putin in a bid to win over fence-sitters who don't want to cross Putin directly

Prigozhin mentioned he was doing this to save Putin from his lying advisers.  He's going to play the game of making his power play, taking control and then keeping Putin on as a figurehead under house arrest. 

And you're right to be concerned about him being in control of the arsenal.  He's making it clear that after he "frees" Putin that he'll still prosecute the war in Ukraine, but do it his way.  No idea what that means but I'd wager not good.

[JasonPratt]

Regular Russian troops have been turning upon each other, apparently: that's a straight civil war, not a coup. A particular jet known to be used by high-ranking Kremlinites including Putin, is heading for Belarus. (I'm catching up on news, this was about three hours ago.)

I've also seen information, possibly only rumor, that a jet belonging to the Lukshenko family has left Belarus and reached Turkey. Either of those reports might be false, hard to tell right now, no official reports (and even official reports lie quite a bit in this fight.) That said, Putin (who hasn't shown up since the coup/cw started) might be flying to take over Belarus with Lushenko getting the hell out of the way while the getting is still good.

Meanwhile, Russia's defense ministry claims Ukraine has opened up a full offensive along the front line. Time will tell on that, I suppose...

[JasonPratt]

CNN reporting that a speech from Putin is on the way. (Where from? Don't know yet. Maybe not from Belarus? ;) )

Live-feed, possibly to be archived later.

Update, started at 2am CST. No subtitles, all Russian.

[Crossroads]

In his unusually short speech Putin sided with Shoigu and Gerasimov, vowing to end this "stab in the back".

Bulldogs and carpets. Prigozhin, your move. From what I know his troops are fiercely loyal to him.

[GDS_Starfury]

[GDS_Starfury]

well, here's hoping we make it to Monday! 

*serious fucking eyeroll*

once in a while I'm allowed to be pessimistic

[GDS_Starfury]

[GDS_Starfury]