Russia's War Against Ukraine

[ArizonaTank]

wait...wait...  I know this one.

"Girls und Panzer" 

[steve58]

Fighting in Pavlovsk, Voronezh Oblast, halfway to Moscow from Rostov


https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672457164395364354

[Pete Dero]

What's wrong with this world when you can't even trust Nazi mercenaries anymore...

[Crossroads]

Laurence Freedman with a long article describing how we got here and what might happen next.

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins-mutiny

[GDS_Starfury]

[SirAndrewD]

Not sure I buy this but breaking now, Lukashenko is claiming he's reached a deal with Prigozhin and Wagner is backing down...

Media is claiming Prigozhin on the cusp of Moscow Prigozhin has sent a message ordering Wagner to turn back to their bases. 

I can't see why Prigozhin would turn back now so I imagine this is potentially smoke and mirrors.

Ok, and just now BBC is reporting this message just came from Prigozhin:

"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That's why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."

[Tripoli]

Not sure I buy this but breaking now, Lukashenko is claiming he's reached a deal with Prigozhin and Wagner is backing down...

Media is claiming Prigozhin on the cusp of Moscow Prigozhin has sent a message ordering Wagner to turn back to their bases. 

I can't see why Prigozhin would turn back now so I imagine this is potentially smoke and mirrors.

Ok, and just now BBC is reporting this message just came from Prigozhin:

"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That's why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."

With all the insanity going on, I can't discount this, but it seems to be that Prigozhin has effectively "crossed the Rubicon".  As I see it, if he pulls back, he will merely delay his falling from a 10th floor of an apartment building by a couple of months....

FWIW, this is what the advance allegedly looked like a couple of hours ago:

[SirAndrewD]

With all the insanity going on, I can't discount this, but it seems to be that Prigozhin has effectively "crossed the Rubicon".  As I see it, if he pulls back, he will merely delay his falling from a 10th story apartment building by a couple of months....

Literally thought the exact same thing.  There was no coming back from this the instant Putin went on TV and called him a traitor. 

There's no deal that Putin can adhere to in this.  Prigozhin is a dead man walking unless he wins.  You can't take a shot at the King and miss.

In this day in age with AI as effective as it is and Russian's black hat hacking background, you can't believe anything until it's got extreme confirmation. 

[SirAndrewD]

Video now of Wagner troops leaving Rostov. 

Reports are that Prigozhin gets virtual control of the Russian MOD and Shoigu and Gerasimov are out.

If true this makes Putin look extremely weak to the point of total powerlessness.  There's no way he can actually hold to a deal like that and maintain his hold on the country. 

On the other hand Putin might be closer to the grave than is expected.  His long silence on this and weak statement spoke volumes.  This isn't the strongman of a decade ago.

[JasonPratt]

I would legitimately follow that satire thread, if it existed!

(It does seem to 'present' as a twitter page, huh...)

[ArizonaTank]

I really don't believe in conspiracies...especially large and complex ones...but there is something about Progo's move that seems choreographed.

Part of Progo's rant yesterday was along the lines that Shoigu and Gerasimov lied to Putin about the reasons for the war. Progo said 'Ukraine did not have any Nazis' (imagine that) and that the whole war was just to boost Shoigu's career...or words to that effect.

Maybe Progo is giving Putin a 'Get Out of Ukraine' free card. Next week we see Gerasimov's and Shoigu's heads stuck on spikes over the Kremlin gate and Putin offering tempting terms to the Ukrainians.  And as far as Progo?  He gets whatever he wants.

[SirAndrewD]

I really don't believe in conspiracies...especially large and complex ones...but there is something about Progo's move that seems choreographed.

I would not be shocked if this was a intricate play for Putin to remove Shoigu and his supporters from the MOD.

Shoigu has been very out of favor for some time but he was too entrenched to simply fire.   There's a possibility that as Putin's health declines that this kind of extreme action was the only way for him to reliably take back control of his own military. 

It's especially strange that Lukashenko was the man to negotiate this.  No one at all believes he's a true independent and he doesn't go to the bathroom unless Putin gives him leave to do so.  For him to swoop in and be the voice of reason is beyond unbelievable.

This is in a realm of surrealism that is extreme even for Russia. 

[JasonPratt]

Zeihan takes a break from a birthday party he was attending (apparently a kids' party at a school) to talk about the situation and the logistic/economic situation around it:

[Gusington]

Can I come out of my bunker in Pennsylvania now?

So...this was an orchestrated power play perpetrated by Putin (with Prigozhin's help?) to re-org the Russian MOD...and perhaps ratchet down the Ukraine War??

Am I interpreting everything correctly? Can I worry less about a nuclear holocaust tonight?

I have many questions still.

[SirAndrewD]

Can I come out of my bunker in Pennsylvania now?

So...this was an orchestrated power play perpetrated by Putin (with Prigozhin's help?) to re-org the Russian MOD...and perhaps ratchet down the Ukraine War??

Am I interpreting everything correctly? Can I worry less about a nuclear holocaust tonight?

I have many questions still.

No one has a clue. 

The last reports are that Prigozhin gets immunity and will go into "exile" in Belarus and Wagner will be folded into the Russian Army as a new Guards division. 

The Russian high command is almost sure to be removed.  Shoigu and Gerasimov will possibly be made to take the fall.  Don't be shocked if they're up on treason charges.

Prighozhin may end up behind the scenes getting say over who replaces the Russian MOD and if so, that will make him the defacto leader of the Russian military and therefore make Putin a prisoner in the Kremlin.  Igor Girkin came right out and said this would be the case. 

The war will continue but done Prighozhin's way, which could mean mass conscription and use of blocking forces.  Bury Ukraine in corpses and make every Ukrainian city Bakhmut.

Or, Prighozhin could play the hero and push for negotiations that makes Russia out to be the winner, at least internally.  He could easily push Putin to make Shoigu, Gerasimov, Patrushev and Medvedev the bad guys that misled Russia into a meaningless war and put them all against the wall, thereby consolidating his power and making sure the line of succession is guaranteed. 

We just don't know.  This is where we say again, the only predictable thing in Russia is its unpredictability.