Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Tripoli]

And finally, what may be the most important mid-term consequence of this, is what does this mean for Russia China relations, (from the Moscow Times):

o   Moscow Times June 25, 2023 Prigozhin's Insurrection Creates Headaches for Russia-China Alliance, Experts Say  https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/25/future-of-putin-pal-shoigu-on-line-after-wagner-revolt-a81630

o   Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion against Moscow will have stoked alarm in China and could throw sand in the wheels of the "no-limits" strategic partnership between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, experts said on Sunday. After a 24-hour armed insurrection in which Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries seized control of parts of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and sent a convoy of troops hundreds of kilometers north towards Moscow, analysts said Beijing would see Putin's failure to keep the mercenary boss in check as smacking of "incompetence." "China will look with great concern at recent events in Russia," said Rana Mitter, professor of the history and politics of modern China at the University of Oxford. "In particular, they are likely to have fresh doubts about how unified Russian forces are, as well as the overall capacity Putin has to control his regime."
o   Sari Arho Havren, a Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) associate fellow specializing in Chinese foreign affairs, said: "Xi likely sees the background of the Wagner mutiny as serious incompetence. The rebellion clearly dented Putin's prestige — and the main consequence is how weak Russia's power structure now appears in the eyes of others. The Chinese Communist Party has a fear of chaos and instability in its DNA." Appearing weak and wounded in front of Beijing will be a serious blow to Moscow — and to Putin personally, who has spent years building up Russia's ties with China and increasingly relies on its political backing and growing trading links.
o   China has become Russia's most important international partner since it invaded Ukraine last February. Putin and Xi call each other "friends" and have cast themselves as a powerful tandem standing up to U.S. hegemony on the global stage. On the eve of the invasion, the two countries struck a "no-limits" strategic partnership. In practice, however, China has been cautious not to provide support that could trigger Western sanctions and Putin has publicly acknowledged that Xi has "concerns" over Russia's actions in Ukraine. ...
o   While the Kremlin has publicly rebuffed the idea it is a subordinate in the relationship, the notion that Moscow needs Beijing more than the other way around has stuck. That the head of a private militia was able to seize control of one of Russia's most important command centers for the war and advance to within striking distance of Moscow is likely to further tilt the power in the relationship toward Beijing, analysts said. "This cements Russia's status as a junior partner," said Livia Paggi, the managing director and head of political risk at J.S. Held. "Russia has already become completely dependent on China, for instance on oil and gas sales. It will be even more so now — there's no doubt about it."...
o   On the political front, the most important aspect of the Moscow-Beijing alliance for Xi is Putin's ability to act in partnership with him to counter the United States on the international arena, said John K. Culver, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub and a former CIA officer. "In that context, China will support Putin if he remains in charge in Moscow. If Putin falls, Beijing will wait for the dust to settle and cultivate the new power structure, perhaps with a fresh chance to counsel that Russia extricate itself from Ukraine and refocus on long-term competition with the United States/Western alliance," he wrote Saturday after the mutiny had been quashed.
o   While China's Xi is yet to make any high-profile comments on the situation in Russia, Moscow's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko was in Beijing on Sunday for a meeting with Chinese officials. In a readout of the meeting, Russia's deputy foreign minister said: "The Chinese side expressed support for the efforts of the leadership of the Russian Federation to stabilize the situation in the country in connection with the events of June 24, and reaffirmed its interest in strengthening the unity and further prosperity of Russia."While China may not have issued a public show of support during the crisis, analysts said there was no doubt which side Beijing was backing. There will have been "huge relief" in China to have seen the armed uprising quashed, J.S. Held's Paggi said."China needs a Russia that it can be a proper partner with. And for China to have a partner, they have to be strong. Russia can't be in tatters — it doesn't work."

[JasonPratt]

Hey India, how ya feelin' about that BrICS plan now? -- oh, visiting the US for talks are we!? 

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile: disinformation by Ukraine, or legitimate activation threat?!

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672996186020610052

From Kyiv Post's Twitter feed. I'm honestly not sure what's being said -- while the implication is that the plan to detonate one or more towers to create meltdown effects, has been set on go, the wording only says the plan to do so has been approved. Which, yeah, that would come first, then the explosives would be set, which I'd be shocked WASN'T done long ago.

On the other hand, they were right about the dam.

[JasonPratt]

Speaking of driving into fallout, sort of: dash-cam vs airstrike on the Wagner column south of Voronezh:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14iid6p/russian_missileshell_aiming_at_the_wagner_convoy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Falling debris and highway speeds do not mix well.  Prayers for the driver and any passengers...

[JasonPratt]

Say, how's that broad-front offensive going? Anyone across the river yet?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14itwzf/something_is_happening_at_the_left_bank_of_dnipro/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Seems so?!

A Russian BTR-82 to the rescue...!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14itqv6/footage_of_a_btr82a_firing_at_the_positions_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Post downthread from "Rybar's Telegram":

From Rybar's Telegram:

"Antonovsky bridge, our bank of the Dnieper. Kherson region

The enemy has been holding a small foothold on our shore for three days. The units of the Russian Armed Forces withdrew from the area, as the constant action of enemy artillery and SOF of the enemy created a threat of encirclement of our forces. They retreated with battles, neighboring units came to the rescue. As a result of the fighting, the Russian Armed Forces suffered losses.

At 18:00, the enemy, with forces of up to 50 people , operates on our territory, in the dark, builds up a group and supplies it with ammunition and technical equipment. Trying to expand the zone of control. A short distance across the water (up to 1 km) does not allow prompt artillery strikes against enemy high-speed boats.

The enemy has mobile electronic warfare installations on our shore, our FPV drone operators could not complete the task of delivering strikes: communication was lost.

An air request to strike at the base of the bridge on our and enemy banks, which the enemy uses as cover from artillery and mortars, was unanswered due to the difficulty of passing information.

Actions on the ground by motorized rifle subunits of the Russian Armed Forces will most certainly cause dense enemy artillery fire from its shore . The enemy forces themselves will be in shelters under the bridge.

The troops are asking for FAB strikes on the foundations of the Antonovsky bridge from both sides.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1673043506216984580

[Sir Slash]

So been outta town for a couple of days, anything interesting happening?   

[SirAndrewD]

So been outta town for a couple of days, anything interesting happening?   

Putin had history's worst catering experience.  Had to leave Concord Catering one star on Yelp.

Yevgeny Prigozhin to reopen his hot dog stand in Minsk.

[Crossroads]

So been outta town for a couple of days, anything interesting happening? 

[ArizonaTank]

Some Wagner mercs and their families are expressing anger with Prigo for turning back...

Calling him a "bald waste of space" according to BBC.

Mercenaries...jeesh...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-bald-waste-of-space-fighters-rage-at-prigozhin/ar-AA1d3TZZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=28c79d60efe1402eb1b2b2b2b08fd501&ei=19#image=1

[SirAndrewD]

Some Wagner mercs and their families are expressing anger with Prigo for turning back...

Calling him a "bald waste of space" according to BBC.

Mercenaries...jeesh...

Well, I can't blame them honestly.  He used them to get what he wanted, regardless of if he thinks he "won" or not.

He promised he was doing this for them to keep them united and under his command, and now they're going to be put in the regular Russian army and likely broken up to lower the chance of future mutiny.

They'll be paid significantly less and even not fed or equipped as well as Wagner did. If the Russian MOD isn't removed they'll be under the command of the very men they were incited to overthrow.

Note that the guys that he was using for this Putsch were not the convicts, but many of them were experienced soldiers that had been fighting for Wagner since Africa and Syria.

[Sir Slash]

So nothing new, just the usual then. If Prigo goes to Belarus, I wonder if anyone bothered to ask Belarus if it was OK with them? And if the whole Wagner bunch follows him... and Putin has just sent his nukes there.....   I wouldn't trust that guy with sparklers even in close proximity. I'm wondering if this isn't some KGB Op to have Wagner take-over Belarus and then invade Ukraine from a new direction. 

[SirAndrewD]

So nothing new, just the usual then. If Prigo goes to Belarus, I wonder if anyone bothered to ask Belarus if it was OK with them? And if the whole Wagner bunch follows him... and Putin has just sent his nukes there.....   I wouldn't trust that guy with sparklers even in close proximity. I'm wondering if this isn't some KGB Op to have Wagner take-over Belarus and then invade Ukraine from a new direction. 

Lukashenko "negotiated" the deal so one can assume Belarus is ok with it since he kind of is Belarus. 

Wagner is being disbanded and folded into the Russian army as noted above.

[JasonPratt]

Some updates from today, collected by The Enforcer channel:

Shoigu is under house arrest for an accounting investigation, although Russia posts stock-footage suggesting he's still out doing his job as usual.

Putin has ordered the arrest of Prigo after all, although it's unclear who reneged on the deal: did Prigo leave/escape-from Minsk (and the hotel he was supposedly staying at)? Is this why he went dark since yesterday?

Notwithstanding, a new Wagner base capable of holding 8000 troops is (still?) under construction in Eastern Belorus, about 100 miles from Ukraine. This might be lag, of course, but any continuation suggests Wagner troops won't be dispersed into the main army after all. (Or maybe only the convicts will, not the professionals?) Russia explains this as creating a reserve force, still under direct military C&C (not really a private military corp) in case of national emergency.

I would provide the links, but they're given over at the Enforcer channel's twit, just scroll down they won't be far: https://twitter.com/ItsTheEnforcer

[SirAndrewD]

I saw Enforcer's video and while none of that is out of the realm of possibility or would even slightly surprise me, I haven't heard anything confirming it outside his channel.  Enforcer's usually pretty good on his info so Putin's speech will be telling. 

It is however confirmed by the UK MOD via the BBC that the FSB took Wagner troops families hostage shortly after Rostov fell, so that may also account for at least some of the events.

EDIT: Yep, Enforcer's on it.  BBC now reporting that the Kremlin has backtracked on charges being dropped.