Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

Putin giving a speech later?

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1673323680397418496

[SirAndrewD]

Putin giving a speech later?

It was announced he would but it's well after midnight in Moscow so it's unlikely today. 

Supposedly he had several "significant" announcements to make.  Can't bode well for anyone.

[Gusington]

 

[GDS_Starfury]

he gave some kind of speech earlier today.

[SirAndrewD]

he gave some kind of speech earlier today.

Yeah, his speech addressing the uprising is out.  Prerecorded it seems.  Doesn't seem to be that significant, more a preamble.

He's still calling this treason and a mutiny just not to be blamed on the rank and file Wagner trooper.  Not good for Prighozhin. 

[GDS_Starfury]

this one is on russian corruption:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1673426878583959554.html

[Crossroads]

Leftenant General M. Hartling with sound observations on the shenanigans we all just witnessed.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1673342109028347907

[Tripoli]

Note from Tripoli: Below is a cut and paste from "War on the Rocks" newsletter, addressing "What the Heck Just Happened?"^TM in Russia.  This is a is a members-only newsletter, but this excerpt is from the free edition:
 
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This weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, led a mutiny against the Russian military. From Friday night into Saturday, Wagner forces managed to capture the city of Rostov and marched toward Moscow until, on Saturday night, they agreed to stand down after striking a deal with the Russian government. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Prigozhin will be banished to Belarus and charges against him will be dropped; Wagner fighters who participated in the attempted mutiny will not be prosecuted, and those who did not participate will be offered contracts with the Defense Ministry. The situation is still developing, however, and much remains unclear about the fate of the Wagner Group. We asked four experts to tell us more.

Read more below.
 


Mike Kofman
Director, Russia Studies Program
Center for Naval Analyses
Prigozhin's mutiny was ultimately a desperate act of someone who was cornered, on the losing end of a Byzantine power struggle. Prigozhin likely judged that yet another dramatic act would lead Putin to rule in his favor, perhaps encouraged by backers in Moscow who had long provided him cover. Instead, he challenged the system itself, and while he could not provide a political alternative, his actions exposed the weakness of the regime.

It's important to emphasize that we still don't know much about how this ends, what the agreement was, and whether it will stick. It remains to be seen what will happen to Prigozhin and Wagner. Putin's latest statement suggests Wagner soldiers' options are demobilization, absorption into the Russian military, or exile in Belarus. For now, the damage to Putin's regime is arguably the clearer part of this saga.
 


Rob Lee
Senior Fellow
Foreign Policy Research Institute
I think the catalyst for the mutiny was the recent Russian Ministry of Defense announcement that all private military companies and volunteer units would have to sign contracts with them. This was likely an attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, to maintain the status quo and Wagner's autonomy. But what started as a factional dispute between two powerful Russian figures became a public challenge to Putin. It is too soon to say what the long-term ramifications of this mutiny will be, but the success or failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive could be a critical factor.
 


Dmitry Gorenburg
Senior Research Scientist, Center for Naval Analyses;
Associate, Davis Center for Russian and East European Studies, Harvard University
The mutiny staged by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner private military company over the weekend was a major shock to the Russian political system. Prigozhin most likely started the action in order to prevent Wagner from being subsumed by the Ministry of Defense. The shock, however, comes from the lack of warning by Russian security services and the ease with which, in less than 24 hours, Wagner occupied Rostov and marched to within 200 kilometers of Moscow. Although the immediate threat was averted by a negotiated deal, the damage to the perception of Putin's domestic power and invulnerability will weaken the Russian political system in ways that will be difficult for Putin to overcome.

[Uberhaus]

Wagner will reconstitute in Belarus.  Lukashenko will need such men considering the internal and external political threats he faces.  With an obligation to him and little if any ties to the population, Lukashenko will count on their loyalty.  I doubt many Wagner mercenaries will take up with the Russian military, and since the FSB took hostages of Wagner families returning home isn't much of an option. (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-threatened-families-of-wagner-uprising-leaders-telegraph-2023-6?op=1  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/?utm_content=world%20news&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1687725991-2)

I won't even hazard a guess on Prigozhin's future fate. 

The Russian's do now have their very own "Stab in the Back" myth, that the Kremlin and the population will take to heart no matter what the outcome of their "SMO"  Putin's recent speech blames the West for the insurrection.  From the BBC:

He accused the West of fomenting the "mutiny" that took place at the weekend and praised Russia for its "unity"

Kadyrov seems to be very quiet, has anyone heard anything about him in the last 24 hours?

[W8taminute]

I read somewhere that the missing 6.2 billion dollars the US reported on a few weeks ago were given to Wagner to encourage them to rebel.  Looks like he took the money and ran. 

Of course, I don't know how credible the source is that I read this on but it is interesting.  Like something out of a hollywood movie. 

[SirAndrewD]

I read somewhere that the missing 6.2 billion dollars the US reported on a few weeks ago were given to Wagner to encourage them to rebel.  Looks like he took the money and ran. 

Of course, I don't know how credible the source is that I read this on but it is interesting.  Like something out of a hollywood movie. 

Unlikely.  There was no "missing" $6.2 Billion.  The money was an accounting error and we underspent on the aid package where that money was allocated.   The rest of that money goes into future aid packages as it was already approved by congress and it has to be accounted for just like the initial approved package.  If there's more or less on the next pass then money gets reallocated again. 

Prighozhin had plenty of reasons to rebel beyond adding more billions to his coffers.  He was increasingly isolated, his men were on a clock of July 1 to sign with the MOD or they'd be taken away from him, Putin had stopped talking to him and he was about to be stripped of his troops by Shoigu, a man that actively wanted him dead.  When the FSB started investigating him it was put up or shut up time for him.

[Sir Slash]

What really is going on in Russia is like that doll-thing their kids play with, you know the one where you open-up the doll and there's another one inside, and then another one inside that, and another, and another, and another. We won't really know what's going on until we get to the last doll. The thing for me is if Putin's forgiving everybody then he is either scared totally shitless, or believes this thing went his way completely. If it's the latter, then there's always the possibility that it was his baby all along.

[JasonPratt]

No no no no, it's a Moebius doll! -- the smallest one inside is actually the largest one outside!

Because their plots tend to loop around in circular reasoning. 

[W8taminute]

Exactly. 

That's why I don't trust anyone, us or them, to tell the truth.  Wicked evil doers abound my friends and they all think they're getting away with murder. 

Has anyone of you heard of the term "maskarovska"?