Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Oh, I expect we've all read Tom Clancy at least once. 

Come to think of it, someone was joking earlier that if Clancy had written this plot, it would have been rejected as too farfetched!

[SirAndrewD]

Oh, I expect we've all read Tom Clancy at least once. 

Come to think of it, someone was joking earlier that if Clancy had written this plot, it would have been rejected as too farfetched!

I would have no doubt that he would have.

And all of this is why it's going to be weeks/months before we have a good understanding of what really happened. 

I did initially have some thoughts that Putin might have orchistrated part of this as a way to remove Shoigu, who has gradually become the Shadow President of Russia, but I don't believe that anymore.

What can't be underestimated is the damage this has done to Putin's reputation, not just in Russia but more importantly with his strategic partners. 

Putin's dream of Russia leading an eastern power coalition with China and India died last weekend. Many analysts are reporting that internally Xi is now fully convinced Russia will never be a reliable strategic partner and any illusion that they would ever be treated equally with the Sino-Indian power bloc are dead. 

These kinds of "revolutions" are things China crushes mercilessly before they even have a chance to occur.  This is a huge slip for Putin, regardless of the real reasons behind it. 

A close friend of mine whos opinion I trust feels that over the next few months you'll see a purge coming on both sides of this conflict.  It won't look like one at first, some house arrests, a heart attack, a resignation or two due to poor health followed by long terminal illnesses, but it may be coming nonetheless.  Don't expect this to end with another bang...

Or do!  It's Russian Roulette on the global scale!  Make your bets now people.  I for one am in on Putin secretly being a Tiger Person from the planet Zorfan and this is all a plan to cultivate Leprechauns for their gold reserves.     

[JasonPratt]

Back this morning, a special diplomatic jet was crossing the North Atlantic on the way to the US; probably here by now.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673666391939981314

I'm not sure about the time zoning of the clock in this snapshot, but whoever has the tracking app can look up the flight number RSD898.

[JasonPratt]

I don't have a good link right now, but apparently the US told Russia diplomatically (or direct from the adminstration) that if ANYTHING nuclear-related happens as a result of Russian war efforts in or around the war zone (for example, melting down those reactors), the Security Council will regard that as expanding the war to NATO and will take action against Russia.

Relatedly, more than 48 hours after the Ukrainian Defense Ministry alert, nothing goofy at the plant yet...? (Things move so fast, the whole place could be a glowing crater right this moment and I wouldn't necessarily have heard yet.)

[JasonPratt]

Putin's dream of Russia leading an eastern power coalition with China and India died last weekend. Many analysts are reporting that internally Xi is now fully convinced Russia will never be a reliable strategic partner and any illusion that they would ever be treated equally with the Sino-Indian power bloc are dead.

I expect BRICS was dead (despite occasional hopeful pretenses otherwise) the moment Putler went over the borders last February, dooming his nation to economic ruin in many of various ways -- but yep, it's deader than dead now.

[GDS_Starfury]

ffs, having to do this down every friking tree line...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1673813432791867393

[Sir Slash]

Kind of reminds me of the footage of Marines clearing bunkers on Iwo Jima. Only greener. 

[JasonPratt]

Bocage-y!

[GDS_Starfury]

ok hive mind.
find me info on how effective Trophy is vs drones.   

[GDS_Starfury]

oh and fwiw, Ukraines M1s were unloaded today in Poland.   

[ArizonaTank]

One of the 'click-baity' links on my homepage says Prigo is holed-up in a "windowless" hotel room in Minsk.

My first thought was..nah!! What hotel would have a windowless room?

Then I remembered we are talking about the former Soviet Union...makes total sense.

Now all Prigo has to do is not change his underwear.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/prigozhin-windowless-room-assassination-russia-uprising-113242816.html

[SirAndrewD]

Interestingly, according to the WSJ Prighzhin had an original plan to capture and or eliminate Shoigu and  Gerasimov when they visited the front, but FSB leakers in Wagner foiled the plot.

That would've been a much more tenable plan, but once blown he went for all the marbles.

[Gusington]

^Yeah I just read that same article.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1674118049975214081

[Sir Slash]

I feel bad for Prigo. First he lost-out on getting to be the new host on Wheel of Fortune and now all this. Guess he'll have to settle for...Jeopardy instead.