Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Windigo]

If you all viewed Russia as being run by mob-bosses, with Putin as the king of Dons, this would all make perfect sense.

[GDS_Starfury]

smart observers have been.

[JasonPratt]

Enforcer Matt's collection of news snippets today:

1.) Prigo's business jet was in Belarus a little more than 14 hours before flying to Moscow and back. Rumor has it that most of his 'council of commanders' was also there, and they were 'negotiating' something for 2+ hours.

2.) Lukashenko would like "battle hardened" Wagnerites to train his forces, but on the other hand Wagner can forget about a brand new facility being built or even an existing one being converted for their new base. (Matt didn't really provide a link source for that last one, but the former comes from The War Zone: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/belarus-wants-prigozhins-wagnerites-to-train-its-army)

3.) NextaTV, no relation to actual ATVs, (https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1673944333374963713?cxt=HHwWgoC-yZLghbsuAAAA) is reporting that "Interior Ministry General Alexander Travnikov was involved in a serious ATV accident. He is in a hospital in critical condition." We will doubtless hear later that he was doing kinky sex on the ATV while it bounced through the woods, and was kicked off. Five times. Before he succumbed. 

4.) https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html

Moscow Times reports that General Sergei Surovikin has been arrested for not only knowing about Prigo's coming rebellion but aiding and abetting. Or worse. (For those who read Russian, not me! https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/06/28/istochniki-v-minoboroni-soobschayut-ob-areste-generala-surovikina-a47384 )

Russian & Ukrainian sources in Telegram claim Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces Surovikin and his Deputy Colonel-General Yudin arrested for treason and taken to the Lefortovo pre-trial detention center. Yudin (or someone typing on his account anyway) has already denied this, reporting that he's on vacation at home.


4.) Swiss Leopard 1s (currently under German management) won't be going to Ukraine after all. Understandable from a 'neutrality' diplomatic stance, I suppose.

5.) Reuters is reporting that China has decided Russia will be fine without several days worth of Chinese imports for a while! https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-china-idAFKBN2YD0Z8 More seriously, this signals China's concern that Russia won't be able to pay back what it owes, i.e. the Russian government is too likely to collapse.

6.) When Putin was kind-of forced to acknowledge that Wagner was always acting under Russian governmental orders -- as part of his justification for his ultimatum about folding them into the main army or kicking them out of Russia altogether, as well as positioning Prigo as a liar and hypocrite to undermine his popularity -- this opened up Russia for liability on all the war crimes Wagner has perpetrated over the years which Putin has disavowed responsibility for.

The ISW has more about this wrinkle today, among other things: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-27-2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reputation among Wagner personnel and within Russian society. Putin implied on June 27 that "the owner of Concord company" (the Concord company is the parent company of Prigozhin's catering company) lied about the Wagner Group private military company's (PMC) independence from the Kremlin and the lack of state compensation for Wagner personnel.[1]Putin publicly claimed for the first time since Wagner's founding that the Kremlin "fully funds" and "fully supplies" the Wagner PMC and claimed that the Kremlin made various payments to Wagner personnel and their families from Russia's federal budget. Putin added that "the owner of the Concord Company" received 80 billion rubles (about $936 million) between May 2022 and May 2023 for delivering and catering food to the Russian military, and that the Kremlin will investigate whether the company stole anything during its work for the Kremlin. Putin was clearly referring to Prigozhin, who is the owner of the Concord Company Group and previously worked as Putin's personal caterer, but Putin continues to refuse to say Prigozhin's name.[2] Putin's insinuation that the Kremlin will investigate the Concord Company may be preparation to justify the Kremlin's confiscation of Prigozhin's assets via corruption charges.

Putin is rhetorically separating Prigozhin from the Wagner PMC and is deliberately depriving Prigozhin of the title of Wagner financier to undermine his role in the Wagner PMC. The Kremlin launched an ongoing domestic information campaign in Russia to forgive Wagner fighters and commanders in an effort to lure Wagner personnel to sign contacts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).[3] The deliberate effort to separate Prigozhin from the Wagner Group is likely intended to set informational conditions so that the Kremlin can accuse Prigozhin of corruption or conspiring with Ukraine or the West and alienate Prigozhin from Wagner personnel whom the Kremlin seeks to retain to fight in Ukraine as part of the regular Russian military.[4] Prigozhin had built his personal brand on criticizing the Russian military command and bureaucrats for corruption and ties to Western countries, and Putin is likely attempting to shatter Prigozhin's populist appeal by accusing him of the same sins.

[JasonPratt]

Some commentary on Lushenko's speech yesterday, and Putin's followup speech, related to Lush's negotiation with Prigo and Putin's admission of funding war crimes.

[JasonPratt]

Some connections late in this video to the arrested generals and Prigo's coup attempt.

(The thread title is click-baity, however: Prigozh isn't fleeing to the US. Yet. Or maybe ever. He might have to go into hiding somewhere, if Putin's case against him ramps up.)

[JasonPratt]

Based on a New York Times report, although I'm not sure there's anything we haven't heard yet.

Meanwhile, Warographics presents a nicely produced 26 minute doc on the coup up to a day ago.

[JasonPratt]

I forgot to mention yesterday, partly because I couldn't re-find the source-claim where I had seen it, that Ukraine has reached, and reclaimed, the first town on the road past their beachhead in Crimea.

That should be REALLY REALLY big news, if true. (As in, Putin threatened Godawful-er things if that ever happened.) So the fact I haven't found it again suggests maybe not...?


Meanwhile, "Former US Army intelligence analyst Kervin Aucoin told Daily Express US Prigozhin could still play a crucial role in Putin's plans, and effectively could be "positioning" himself to take over from Lukashenko." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-and-prigozhin-positioned-to-oust-lukashenko-and-seize-control-of-belarus/ar-AA1dcPdV?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c66b4e3b63f144b1a6f2e8f5d668a11b&ei=53

That would at least fit the supervillainous moebius-doll plotting.  Or what I liked to call Putin's "Dumbledore Gambit" waaaaay back eons ago at the start of the war: have a crazy number of plots going at once in order to take advantage of anything  that pops up as a winner and confuse your enemies meanwhile.

[GDS_Starfury]

still one of my favorites!   

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500099189061173249

[ArizonaTank]

...
Meanwhile, "Former US Army intelligence analyst Kervin Aucoin told Daily Express US Prigozhin could still play a crucial role in Putin's plans, and effectively could be "positioning" himself to take over from Lukashenko." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-and-prigozhin-positioned-to-oust-lukashenko-and-seize-control-of-belarus/ar-AA1dcPdV?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c66b4e3b63f144b1a6f2e8f5d668a11b&ei=53
...

I saw this theory on a Ukranian site a few days ago. Maybe this is the answer to the question of "what did Prigo get for turning around? Maybe Putin gave him Belarus.

But for myself I am not sure. Gangster rules say there is only one ending; Prigo has to "sleep with the fishes." 

[FarAway Sooner]

I thought it was "wearing concrete galoshes"?  But I've been out of the Mob for a while now...

[Tripoli]

Good article by General Ryan: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-29/prigozhin-wagner-mutiny-ukraine-operations-russian-military/102536320  For those who are short of time, here is a Twitter thread that he wrote that summarizes much of the article:
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1674162791199174657

[Gusington]

Damn, that Hind went down like a roach hit by Raid.

[JasonPratt]

Now opening for suggestions as to the Russian mafia equivalent of "sleep with the fishes"...! 

Meanwhile, part of my brain is wondering what lessons and (hopefully) advancements our team is learning from the copter vs missile engagements of this war. Even if it boils down to "this is why we teach you don't do this", it would be useful.

But is the modern copter-space lethality only a factor of poor training/skills perhaps combined with equipment supply problems; or has this conflict revealed a need to revamp rotary ops (and co-ops, so to speak)?

Sort of similar to the modern tank debate, the past few years: I think it has settled down to mostly bad tactics, including at the op level (both also being a factor of training, and CCC problems), but maybe also some level of reformulation in proper combined arms is needed?

[GDS_Starfury]

scraped from the bottom of the barrel and arriving at the southern front, the russian army in retrograde.

[Uberhaus]

Well, the fourth crewmember probably won't explode and throw the turret.