Russia's War Against Ukraine

[SirAndrewD]

Currently, the primary issue facing the UAF in their advance in the south is less a dogged Russian defense and more the extreme use of mines. 

The UAF progress has been quite fast when actually facing direct combat with Russian formations as is evidenced by the wealth of videos, but then slowed by the extremely difficult work of mine clearing.

The Russians are even using WWII era mines, and have mined so extensively they're having issues with their active defense strategy by running their local counterattacks into their own mines.

Russia is also starting to pay for its heavy expenditure of Artillery in this phase of the counteroffensive.  Liberation of towns like Rivnopil and the capture of Russian troops there show that they're facing a critical ammunition shortage, much of it wasted trying to repel attacks of only a few dozen to hundreds of troops.

These small engagements show that comparisons to either Normandy or especially Verdun would indicate an extreme ignorance of those two battles when compared to the situation in Ukraine.  One that stands out most obviously is the massive difference in overall force density of those two battles to this one. 

Currently, Russia and Ukraine are bringing to bear roughly one million men on each side, of which of course only a portion would be considered front line combat units.  That is spread along a front that is as large as the entire Eastern Front in WW2.  This bears no resemblance at all to the tight quarters and massive troop concentrations that were seen in the first two World War's Western Fronts.

This is to me why I question as to why the UAF has opened six separate axis of advance while keeping its heavy brigades and reserves.  The answer given is that they're probing for what would be an inevitably existing weak spot where the Russians lack the manpower and reserves to actually man their fortifications. 

News today is the weak spot has been found and the main thrust of the counteroffensive will begin any day.  I take that news with a grain of salt but we'll see. 

This is like any conflict, something best not compared tactically to other wars as this has its own challenges and realities.  There is something to be said for using past conflicts as a guide, but there is always the trap of "Fighting the Last War" that comes into play when trying too hard to compare apples to apples.

We frankly won't know how this counteroffensive goes until the fall rains start to come into play and both sides begin to slow the campaigning season down.  If the UAF can't exploit gains further than they have now, it will be a failure.   However it must be made paramount that they have to consider that the survival of their army is more important than achieving limited success with catastrophic losses.  This is a hard calculus that is being made in Kyiv right now and its understandable if they achieve a limited political success like say, the liberation of Bakhmut, in exchange for preserving their manpower and waiting for more promised Western equipment, especially airpower.

[GDS_Starfury]

when I use an example like Normandy I'm not referring to the battle itself, just the final part when the Germans just cracked and things got moving.

[SirAndrewD]

when I use an example like Normandy I'm not referring to the battle itself, just the final part when the Germans just cracked and things got moving.

Oh, I get you.  I just have been seeing a lot of Western Front WW1 and WW2 comparisons to it in the media that don't really bare apt comparisons to the current conflict.  Many pro-Ukrainian western outlets use Normandy as a drumbeat right now, many pro-Russians western analysts mention Somme/Verdun. 

This has more resemblance to Eastern Front battles for obvious reasons, but even then it falls short in any attempt to compare 1:1.  The success or failures here hinge on the tactics used for this war.  There's no proof yet that either side has unlocked the key to winning.

[GDS_Starfury]

anyone want to guess what this new russian idea is?



as a hint it sure as shit points to Ukrainian victory

[GDS_Starfury]

didnt we used to have a way of hiding pictures behind a nsfw tag?

[Uberhaus]

What is a discount dragon's tooth, Alex.  Bring a pallet of concrete mix, just add water and you have an obstacle in the middle of the road. 

Either that or it is a pallet of nomenklatura bull shit. 

[GDS_Starfury]

how about compressed and flat packed russian corpses.......
theres are pics of it and others unwrapped which is why I asked where the nsfw bit was.

[GDS_Starfury]

here ya go Slash, a succinct explanation.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1676278761342345216.html

[JasonPratt]

Well, again, as long as the Ukrainians are forcing the Russians to send up reserves from the 2nd and 3rd (nominally) defensive lines to the front lines, that's an ongoing win for the Uks. Of course mines will slow down progress once the Russians have to stop sending reserves forward, but still.

I did not however realize the extent of Ukrainian reserves powering up with theme music (= training and fresh kit) in the backfield. 

[JasonPratt]

Enforcer Matt summarizes the current situation around the Zappy nuclear plant, within 24 hours of the July 5th evacuation warning limit given to Ukrainian contractors.

Russian propaganda has started spinning out a warning that the Ukrainians will (supposedly) stage attacks on the plan within 24 hours (specifically during the evening locally), trying to make it look like the Russians did it.

[Sir Slash]

I too watch the videos of progress, or lack of, in the war. Pro-Russian, Pro-Ukrainian, and right in the middle. Only the admittedly pro-Ukrainian sources are as certain of victory as you are Star. Neither side has lost or gained significant territory and I haven't seen or heard anyone claiming the Russkies are running low on bodies to throw-in to the fight. Rather sources I read claim the Uks have already lost approx. 20,000 men and the big battles haven't even begun yet. That is very much 'Verdun-like' so hardly can be called "extreme Ignorance" by anyone except those who believe this op is going swimmingly. The sources I saw say the Russians have about a 10-1 advantage in arty. And superiority in the air. So how exactly are the Uks supposed to win? This attritional campaign may take another year to make a significant dent in the numbers difference and Ukraine doesn't have the time before the fall begins to achieve it. So at some point they'll have to just throw everybody in a massive assault or sit tight until the F-16's can arrive. Then a whole new war will begin. But I could be wrong. Who knows?

[GDS_Starfury]

dont know where you got "extreme ignorance" from.  kinda a self own from my perspective.  also, neither side has air superiority.  no one said anything about it going swimmingly either.  however its only the beginning of July so we'll see what happens.  care to mention the names of your sources?  I'd really like to know as you never provide links.

[GDS_Starfury]

ORIKHIV AXIS /1900 UTC 4 JUL/ On 3 JUL, Russian units were contacted and pushed back after an encounter west of Kopani.  UKR forces are in contact north of Robotyne and are reported to have advanced 2 Km (approx. 1 mile) south.

[SirAndrewD]

dont know where you got "extreme ignorance" from.

He was quoting my comment and assuming I was referring to him.  I'm not.

[JasonPratt]

Task & Purpose nicely produces a video summarizing the Prigo situation from his early days up until 2 days ago, leaning as much as possible on known facts:

Amusingly, I clicked the code during the late commercial in the video, so at first the thumbnail showed a growling beaver! Irony?