Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Of course, 2 days ago is a long time nowadays. Less than 24 hours later, Putin has announced an arrest warrant for Prigo. Apparently. Who even knows anymore!

[Tripoli]

Twitter feed from Thomas Theiner that is worth considering when analyzing the state of the current Ukrainian offensive:
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1676278761342345216?s=61&t=N58_huWUQwPoI8YFJmKrEA

[GDS_Starfury]

thats the exact thread I posted on the last page as a unroll thingy. 

[Sir Slash]

Apologies if I was mistaken about your post being about me Sir Andrew. I should've known better. I watch almost everything on YouTube about the war. Willy OAM I think as well as Military Summary and Weeb Union and others.  They post almost every day, sometimes twice a day. It's usually easy to tell who is for whom pretty quickly but generally they tell a very similar story.

It's easy to say what Ukraine is planning, going to do, trying to do, and such but no one knows for sure will they be able to do it. Not even Star with his extensive and highly placed contacts in the upper regions of military management worldwide I'd wager.

Ukraine's losing a lot of men they can't afford to right now, even with the small, platoon-sized skirmishing and probes, trying to find a weak spot in the lines, or create one, with very little luck so far while keeping their main striking forces intact waiting for a Russian miss-step or crack-up. If the Russians are at their breaking point no one I've seen anywhere has reported it, not even the clearly Pro-Ukrainian blogs. Even Zelensky says, "The Counteroffensive is not progressing as rapidly as desired". Not even Star would argue with him. So how long can they keep-up this little offensive before they either have to quit or go all-in? Days, weeks, months? Tell that to the poor bastards getting shot at everyday.

[GDS_Starfury]

they're giving waaaaay better then they're receiving and territory is being retaken.  I'm also still seeing a steady stream of videos appealing to high authority about not going back to the front unless needs are met.
one of the maps I posted has a verified 2km advance for the last week or two.  its not US Army fast but it aint the US Army.

[SirAndrewD]

Apologies if I was mistaken about your post being about me Sir Andrew.

No worries and unnecessary.

To be clear my commentary was more directed at some of the mainstream media and a few of the more partisan mil bloggers.  I know that there had been some comparisons on similar lines and I understand the desire to do so, I merely caution against the danger of trying to make comparisons in general, especially until we actually know what the heck is really going on. 

[GDS_Starfury]

we wont for a while.  the story I cant wait to here about is the left behind partisans and what theyve been doing for the duration.

[JasonPratt]

Today's Prigozhin update kicks off early, from the Ukrainian Pravda which is SURELY a reliable source about this sort of thing. 

I'm taking it with a grain of salt, but at the very least this is the current angle they're pushing. Or rather, this is what the Russian outlet Fontanka is claiming (with reference to sources), and UkPrav is reporting that.

The original Fontanka article for Russian readers: https://www.fontanka.ru/2023/07/05/72464159/

The UkPrav article, translated to English, via MSN: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/prigozhin-arrives-in-st-petersburg-takes-back-seized-weapons/ar-AA1ds4tH?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a8a028cb0cd242338a4459ab9a379537&ei=14

Short version, supposedly Prigo rolled up to the depot in St. Pete where the weapons seized from his personal stash had been stored, and claimed them with the approval of the Russian government, then rolled off again.

[GDS_Starfury]

scratch one ammo dump

https://twitter.com/i/status/1676503203939069952

[Tripoli]

thats the exact thread I posted on the last page as a unroll thingy. 

Whoops.  Sorry.  I really do read almost everything on this topic.  But I missed your post.   

[GDS_Starfury]

no worries, its a good post

[JasonPratt]

Moscow Times translates more of the Fontanka report for those of us who, like myself, don't read Russian and don't understand how to do language conversion in print on the internet. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-returns-111m-seized-during-police-raids-to-prigozhin/ar-AA1dpXfK?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=b1daeb1c913a4d0888802a07877761ce&ei=31

This article focuses on the cash seized during the coup attempt and then returned to Prigo recently.

[JasonPratt]

Let's see what the ISW is up to in its assessments from yesterday (July 4th):

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4-2023

Summary:

Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment.

The current pace of Ukrainian operations is not indicative of a stalemate or evidence that Ukraine cannot retake large areas.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least four sectors of the front and advanced on July 4.

Russian and Ukrainian officials escalated their rhetoric surrounding the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 4, but Russia is likely focused on accusing Ukraine of irresponsible actions around the ZNPP including setting conditions for a possible false flag attack. Russia remains unlikely to generate a radiological incident at the ZNPP at this time.

Not totally sure that last paragraph and its further details make sense, but Russia-gonna-Russia.

The reported reorganization of Russian internal security organs suggests that the Kremlin has not yet concluded that it has effectively neutralized the threats of future armed rebellions following the Wagner Group's June 23-24 rebellion.

Russian authorities are absolving Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of financial responsibility for damages caused by the Wagner Group rebellion and reportedly returned significant liquid assets to Prigozhin, possibly as part of the deal negotiated between Putin, Prigozhin, and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

Hm, they're taking that report of returning assets (and weapons) to Prigo kind-of seriously. Their further details summarize the state of play yesterday on this topic: "The Rostov-on-Don administration claimed that the total damages from Prigozhin's rebellion amounted to 92.5 million rubles (roughly $1 million), and that the administration will not recover damages from Prigozhin or the Wagner Group.[21] St. Petersburg news outlet Fontanka claimed, citing internal sources, that Russian authorities returned over 10 billion rubles (roughly $111 million) in cash, five gold bars, and hundreds of thousands of US dollars in cash to Prigozhin on July 2 that authorities had seized from Prigozhin-affiliated facilities in St. Petersburg on June 24.[22] Fontanka claimed that authorities only reversed their decision to hold onto Prigozhin's liquid assets on July 2 but did not specify a reason for the reversal. The legal basis that Russian authorities would have had for seizing Prigozhin's assets remains unclear in any case, as Russian authorities dropped criminal charges against Prigozhin for the rebellion.[23] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that part of Prigozhin's liquid assets were supposed to be compensation to the families of Russian pilots whom Wagner forces killed during the rebellion, but it is now uncertain whether Wagner will make those payments.[24] The milblogger assessed that Wagner will likely use at least part of the returned assets to support transferring Wagner Group personnel to Belarus."

The official Chechen response to an attack against a Russian opposition journalist in Chechnya may impact Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov's standing in the Russian ultranationalist information space.

Kadyrov's prominence in the broader Russian information space will likely force Kadyrov to choose between preserving his regime and his support in the ultranationalist information space, however.

Russia is reportedly forming a new combined arms army as part of the Northern Fleet, likely in order to posture its preparedness against NATO.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack on Moscow Oblast and Novaya Moskva on July 4.

Russian conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and south of Kreminna.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian and Ukrainian forces escalated ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on July 4.

Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russia continues efforts to mobilize its defense industrial base (DIB).

Russian officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of providing pediatric healthcare.

[JasonPratt]

New contact today from Prigo, supposedly -- reported by Fox News, but I've got the original here: https://t.me/grey_zone/19396

The internet translates it as:

Statement by Yevgeny Prigozhin in response to the manifestations of the people that have been provided in recent days:

"Today we need your support more than ever. Thank you for that.

I want you to understand that our "March of Justice" was aimed at fighting traitors and mobilizing our society. And I think that we have succeeded in a lot of this.

In the near future, I am sure that you will see our next victories at the front. Thanks, guys!"

[Sir Slash]

The videos from last night were suggesting that most of the new fighting is centered around Bakhmut and that maybe the decisive confrontation in the counteroffensive. But that was last night. Different day, different story. Sir Andrew, and others, are right...we don't, and won't, know for sure what's really going on for some time now.

I just hope the next war will be one where all the little towns have pronounceable names.